Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/16/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
902 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
.UPDATE...
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING AS FORECAST LOOKS
IN REASONABLY GOOD SHAPE. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED BY A
DEGREE HERE AND THERE TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO...POPS WERE
RAISED TO ONE HUNDRED PERCENT AS RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD JUST ABOUT
THE ENTIRE CWA. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT IN TACT.
LOW CENTER VISIBLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. QUICK PEEK AT THE NEW MODELS SHOW THE LOW
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...INTENSIFYING AS IT
DOES. NEW NAM SOLUTION KEEPS THE RAIN GOING THROUGH MID MORNING
WHILE OLD GFS/LATEST HRRR DRY SLOTS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
A LITTLE QUICKER. STATUS QUO SEEMS TO BE PRUDENT UNTIL NEW MODEL
DATA ARRIVES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014/
AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO
ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. THE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WITH A COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL NOT PASS THROUGH THE STATE UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR AND IFR. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW WILL BE SEEN
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL ALLOW FOR TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO DIVE DEEP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. 1ST WAVE IS USHERING A BROAD SWATH OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT. A SURFACE
LOW WILL FORM IN RESPONSE ACROSS TX...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AR...WITH GULF MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SW AR...AND OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO WESTERN AR.
MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN...DIVING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TX. THIS DEEPER SYSTEM WILL
INGEST THE FIRST WAVE AS THE AXES BECOME ALIGNED...AND
BROAD...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DEVELOPS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GET WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM ALOFT...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT A DRY SLOT WILL FORM BY
SUNDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
LOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LESSEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR.
THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY ON SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS AS IT SWEEPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL AR. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE
STATE OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY AND EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
PRECIP COMING TO AN END.
HEAVY RAIN: GIVEN THE TWO MOISTURE SOURCES...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND PACIFIC...HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHWEST AR TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONG ASCENT AND TRAINING...THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY. LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 WILL BE
NOTED FURTHER SOUTH. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RAINFALL DEFICIT OF
LATE...EXPECT PROBLEMS TO REMAIN ISOLATED.
THUNDERSTORMS: GIVEN THE AMPLE ENERGY WITH THESE WAVES THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THE SHOWERS.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE MORE ELEVATED ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE
STATE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANYTHING SURFACE BASED ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH AND WEST THIS EVENING. AS THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS
AND MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS AND BEST DYNAMICS/WIND
SHEAR WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS IS
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING REDUCING THE
SEVERE THREAT.
WINTER WEATHER: COLD AIR WILL GET WRAPPED INTO THE STORM SYSTEM
ALOFT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH. A
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN...TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...TO SNOW WILL OCCUR A
BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE WINTER WEATHER WILL LIKELY
BEGIN IN IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 3
INCHES. AGAIN THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN/NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. SNOW WILL MIX IN ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS LATER ON
SUNDAY...WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
HIGH WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. SUSTAIN WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH WILL HAPPEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A COUPLE OF FRONTS...BUT ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEMS WILL GO
WELL TO THE NORTH WITH NOT MUCH ENERGY TO HELP TRIGGER
PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WILL TEND TO BE LIMITED ANYWAY.
THE FIRST FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD GO THROUGH
DRY. THE LATTER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER...SO ADDED SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 49 52 24 46 / 100 90 50 10
CAMDEN AR 55 64 31 54 / 100 40 30 10
HARRISON AR 43 46 18 47 / 100 80 30 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 53 58 29 53 / 100 50 40 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 53 59 29 52 / 100 60 40 10
MONTICELLO AR 55 66 31 51 / 100 40 30 10
MOUNT IDA AR 51 56 28 54 / 100 50 30 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 46 49 20 46 / 100 90 40 10
NEWPORT AR 50 53 25 45 / 100 90 50 10
PINE BLUFF AR 53 62 30 50 / 100 40 40 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 51 55 26 53 / 100 70 40 10
SEARCY AR 51 57 27 48 / 100 80 50 10
STUTTGART AR 52 60 29 49 / 100 60 50 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&
$$
56
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1015 AM MST FRI MAR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH ARIZONA. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING WITH THE
MAIN VORT LOBE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS HAS BEEN
PRODUCING VERY WEAK SHOWERS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA. PVA AND ASSOCIATED Q FORCING WILL IS SHIFTING TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA AND RADAR TRENDS REFLECT THIS WITH ECHOES
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA MOVING OUT OF METRO PHOENIX AND INTO PINAL
AND GILA COUNTIES. SHOWERS ARE WEAK AND AT BEST ARE ONLY PRODUCING
SPRINKLES. LATEST MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT OF A MIXED BAG ON THE QPF FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A MAJORITY DEPICT MORE QPF THIS AFTERNOON
THAN THIS MORNING BUT PRETTY MUCH JUST FOR ZONE 24 NOT METRO
PHOENIX. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LINGERING Q FORCING
AND SOME DESTABILIZATION WITH SURFACE HEATING AND MID LEVEL COOLING.
THE HRRR IS MORE GENEROUS FOR THE PHOENIX AREA AS IT DEVELOPS
SHOWERS NEAR THE MARICOPA/YAVAPAI BORDER AND TRACKS THEM SOUTH AND
EASTWARD SUCH THAT NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS WOULD BE PREFERRED.
HOWEVER THE AMOUNTS...IF ANY...WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON. POPS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY
THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD AND SURFACE
HEATING GOES AWAY. MORE LATER.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 310 AM MST MAR 14 2014/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH AZ THIS
MORNING. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS WITH SOME
COOLING TOPS ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AND WHERE
IT IS NOT RAINING...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT VIRGA IS
PREVALENT. AT DEER VALLEY AIRPORT...WINDS BRIEFLY GUSTED TO 23 MPH
DURING A SHOWER AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRONGER THAN NORMAL WINDS ALONG
WITH THE CLOUDS ARE RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS. AS OF 3
AM...THE TEMPERATURE AT KPHX HAS NOT DROPPED BELOW 70 DEGREES.
RECORD WARM MINIMUM FOR TODAY IS 64 DEGREES WHICH LAST OCCURRED IN
1984.
MAIN VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY NEAR BLYTHE CONTINUES TO PIVOT
CYCLONICALLY...WHICH HAS SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY...LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT AREAS OF VIRGA AND
SHOWERS WILL BACKBUILD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND PERSIST THIS
MORNING. LATEST GPS-MET AT TEMPE MEASURED AN IPW NEAR 0.6 INCHES.
HOWEVER...ANY RAIN THAT MANAGES TO REACH THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY NOT
AMOUNT TO MORE THAN A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS AN
OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE. STRONGEST QG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
SLIDE INTO EASTERN AZ BY LATE MORNING...THOUGH CONVECTIVE AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL PREDOMINATE INSTEAD. SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX AND POPS
WERE RAISED TO AS HIGH AS 80 PERCENT ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS...ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AROUND SUNSET.
STRONG ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE CO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. WARMEST DAY APPEARS
TO BE MONDAY AS SOMEWHAT OF A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL ONLY BRUSH
BY THE FOUR CORNERS OR PERHAPS FURTHER EAST. MAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...HEIGHT RISES WILL HERALD ADDITIONAL
WARMING THROUGH LATE WEEK...THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WITH SCT
TO BKN DECKS AROUND 12-14K FEET THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING. SOME
VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ANYTHING WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES...SO NO MENTION IN THE AREA TAFS
AT THIS TIME. VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF AREA AIR FIELDS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR WEST AT KIPL AND N TO NW AT KBLH
FOLLOWING WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY AOB
12KT NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...PERIODIC MID/HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 15K
WILL GENERALLY CLEAR BY FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BRINGING
A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM SKIRTS BY JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MOSTLY CALM
ZONAL WIND FLOW EXPECTED. BRIEF GUSTS ON TUESDAY ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH LESS THAN 20 MPH
EXPECTED. NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...CDEWEY
FIRE WEATHER...CDEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
515 AM MST FRI MAR 14 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH ARIZONA. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 310 AM MST MAR 14 2014/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH AZ THIS
MORNING. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS WITH SOME
COOLING TOPS ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AND WHERE
IT IS NOT RAINING...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT VIRGA IS
PREVALENT. AT DEER VALLEY AIRPORT...WINDS BRIEFLY GUSTED TO 23 MPH
DURING A SHOWER AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRONGER THAN NORMAL WINDS ALONG
WITH THE CLOUDS ARE RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS. AS OF 3
AM...THE TEMPERATURE AT KPHX HAS NOT DROPPED BELOW 70 DEGREES.
RECORD WARM MINIMUM FOR TODAY IS 64 DEGREES WHICH LAST OCCURRED IN
1984.
MAIN VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY NEAR BLYTHE CONTINUES TO PIVOT
CYCLONICALLY...WHICH HAS SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY...LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT AREAS OF VIRGA AND
SHOWERS WILL BACKBUILD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND PERSIST THIS
MORNING. LATEST GPS-MET AT TEMPE MEASURED AN IPW NEAR 0.6 INCHES.
HOWEVER...ANY RAIN THAT MANAGES TO REACH THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY NOT
AMOUNT TO MORE THAN A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS AN
OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE. STRONGEST QG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
SLIDE INTO EASTERN AZ BY LATE MORNING...THOUGH CONVECTIVE AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL PREDOMINATE INSTEAD. SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX AND POPS
WERE RAISED TO AS HIGH AS 80 PERCENT ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS...ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AROUND SUNSET.
STRONG ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE CO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. WARMEST DAY APPEARS
TO BE MONDAY AS SOMEWHAT OF A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL ONLY BRUSH
BY THE FOUR CORNERS OR PERHAPS FURTHER EAST. MAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...HEIGHT RISES WILL HERALD ADDITIONAL
WARMING THROUGH LATE WEEK...THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WITH SCT
TO BKN DECKS AROUND 12-14K FEET THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING. SOME
VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ANYTHING WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES...SO NO MENTION IN THE AREA TAFS
AT THIS TIME. VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF AREA AIR FIELDS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR WEST AT KIPL AND N TO NW AT KBLH
FOLLOWING WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY AOB
12KT NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...PERIODIC MID/HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 15K
WILL GENERALLY CLEAR BY FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BRINGING
A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM SKIRTS BY JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MOSTLY CALM
ZONAL WIND FLOW EXPECTED. BRIEF GUSTS ON TUESDAY ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH LESS THAN 20 MPH
EXPECTED. NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...CDEWEY
FIRE WEATHER...CDEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
310 AM MST FRI MAR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH ARIZONA. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH AZ THIS
MORNING. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS WITH SOME
COOLING TOPS ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA AND WHERE
IT IS NOT RAINING...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT VIRGA IS
PREVALENT. AT DEER VALLEY AIRPORT...WINDS BRIEFLY GUSTED TO 23 MPH
DURING A SHOWER AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRONGER THAN NORMAL WINDS ALONG
WITH THE CLOUDS ARE RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS. AS OF 3
AM...THE TEMPERATURE AT KPHX HAS NOT DROPPED BELOW 70 DEGREES.
RECORD WARM MINIMUM FOR TODAY IS 64 DEGREES WHICH LAST OCCURRED IN
1984.
MAIN VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY NEAR BLYTHE CONTINUES TO PIVOT
CYCLONICALLY...WHICH HAS SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY...LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT AREAS OF VIRGA AND
SHOWERS WILL BACKBUILD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND PERSIST THIS
MORNING. LATEST GPS-MET AT TEMPE MEASURED AN IPW NEAR 0.6 INCHES.
HOWEVER...ANY RAIN THAT MANAGES TO REACH THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY NOT
AMOUNT TO MORE THAN A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS AN
OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE. STRONGEST QG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
SLIDE INTO EASTERN AZ BY LATE MORNING...THOUGH CONVECTIVE AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL PREDOMINATE INSTEAD. SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX AND POPS
WERE RAISED TO AS HIGH AS 80 PERCENT ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. GIVEN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS...ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AROUND SUNSET.
STRONG ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE CO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. WARMEST DAY APPEARS
TO BE MONDAY AS SOMEWHAT OF A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL ONLY BRUSH
BY THE FOUR CORNERS OR PERHAPS FURTHER EAST. MAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...HEIGHT RISES WILL HERALD ADDITIONAL
WARMING THROUGH LATE WEEK...THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS...MAINLY MID LEVEL OR HIGHER...CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF SRN
CA. EXPECT BKN-OVC DECKS AOB 14K FEET REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A FEW SCT DECKS TO 10K FEET. MAY SEE SOME VIRGA
AT TIMES...AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY VARIABLE OUTFLOW WINDS AS AS
RESULT OF THE VIRGA. CANNOT TIME OR FORECAST WHERE THESE MAY OCCUR
AND AS SUCH WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE AREA TAFS...BUT POTENTIAL
IS THERE TO AFFECT THE AIRFIELDS INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WEST WINDS TO TRANSITION BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 8KT. BEST THREAT FOR ANY SHOWER TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY WILL STAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX AND PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR A
FEW VIRGA SPRINKLES AT TIMES.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR WEST AT KIPL AND N TO NW AT KBLH
FOLLOWING WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY AOB
12KT NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...PERIODIC MID/HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 15K
WILL GENERALLY CLEAR BY FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BRINGING
A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM SKIRTS BY JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...BUT
EVEN DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN STARTING SATURDAY WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CDEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
959 AM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...OVERALL...CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS. WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...ADVECTING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO. LATEST RAP GENERATES A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PARK
COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE LAPSE RATES AROUND
6 C/KM...LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. SO NO WEATHER OR POPS AT THIS TIME. DID DROP THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. ALL MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATING ONLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION AFTER 06Z AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. CURRENT POPS/WEATHER FOR MOUNTAINS LOOKS REASONABLE.
.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS.
LATEST MODELS SHOWING WINDS DECREASING BY 18Z WITH MORE OF A
SOUTHEAST TREND...EXCEPT WESTERLY AT KBJC. ADJUSTED THE TAFS A BIT
TO SHOW THIS TREND FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH DRAINAGE PREVAIL THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOK REASONABLE. VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS.
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AROUND 16Z WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY. DOES NOT
APPEAR THERE WILL BE MUCH UPSLOPE AS LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CEILINGS
REMAINING ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL. SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AFTER 18Z WITH POSSIBLE CEILINGS AROUND 7000 FEET AGL
ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014/
SHORT TERM...SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS DRY AIR ADVECTS
ACROSS THE REGION. CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE NAM SHOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AT OR LESS THAN 60 PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
ATMOSPHERE UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z. AFTER THAT...MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT
WEATHER DISTURBANCE BEGINS MOVING OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MEANING EVEN LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY. MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO STAY OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO AS THAT SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST THE ONLY PRECIPITATION THAT
IS MENTIONED IS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS
THE LEADING EDGE OF TOMORROW/S WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
STATE. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
COMPARABLE TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.
LONG TERM...ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SAT ALONG WITH A CDFNT. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW DECENT
MOISTURE IN THE MTNS ALONG WITH FAVORABLE ORGRAPHICS ESPECIALLY
THRU EARLY AFTN. THUS SHOULD SEE AREAS OF SNOW ALONG WITH SOME
BLOWING SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH
RANGE ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THE LOW LVL FLOW OVER NERN CO WILL BE MAINLY NNW
SO UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE LACKING. HOWEVER COMBINATION OF SOME
MID LVL ASCENT AND DECENT LAPSE RATES MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A CHC OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTN HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH SPEEDS TO 40
MPH AT TIMES WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME BLOWING DUST OVER THE
PLAINS. HIGHS ON SAT WILL OCCUR BEFORE NOON WITH READINGS IN THE
45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS NERN CO.
BY SAT EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA WITH
DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS NRN CO. THUS PCPN SHOULD END BY EARLY
EVENING. FOR SUN DRY NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA. ONCE
AGAIN WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES OVER THE MTNS...FOOTHILLS AND
PLAINS. HIGHS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
OVER NERN CO.
FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WNW
AS A SFC LEE TROUGH INTENSIFIES EAST OF THE MTNS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
ESPECIALLY NR THE WY-NE BORDER. WITH DOWNSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW TEMPS
SHOULD WARM QUITE A BIT OVER NERN CO WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. SOME MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE MTNS BY LATE AFTN
NORTH OF I-70 WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.
BY MON NIGHT AND TUE THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA. THE GFS NOW HAS A STG UPPER LEVEL LOW
CLOSING OFF OVER ERN CO LATE MON NIGHT WHICH MOVES RAPIDLY INTO
CNTRL KANSAS BY 18Z TUE WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE DIFFUSE LOOKING
TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. OVERALL SHOULD
SEE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW IN THE MTNS NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS. OVER
NERN CO THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO A QUICK SHOT OF PCPN LATE
MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING OVER THE PLAINS WITH LESS OF A
CHC IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF WOULD ALLOW FOR A
BETTER CHC OF PCPN IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY OVER NERN CO AND ADJUST
TEMPERATURES LOWER.
BY WED AND THU BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW DRIER AIR SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA IN WNW FLOW ALOFT SO WILL HAVE A DRY FCST WITH
A WARMING TREND.
AVIATION...NO AVIATION IMPACTS TODAY OR TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT OF HIGH CIRRUS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LESS THAT 12 KTS THROUGH THE DAY AS THEY TREND TO WEST AND
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RPK
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1025 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014
.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH REGIONAL RADAR BEGINNING
TO BECOME ACTIVE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT ZONE. AREA IS ALSO
LIKELY BEING AIDED BY APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH IS ACTING TO CREATE A ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THIS AREA EXPANDING QUICKLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH CATEGORICAL POPS OVER NORTH GEORGIA BY 12Z SUNDAY. IN
VICINITY OF WARM FRONT DURING THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED WITH HELICITY VALUES AT 0-1KM IN THE 400-500
M2/S2 RANGE. INSTABILITY HOWEVER...EVEN MUCAPE VALUES...ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEARLY NON EXISTENT WITH BETTER SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY LAGGING FAR BEHIND THIS INITIAL SHEAR. STILL COULD SEE
SOME GOOD ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE GIVEN STRONG ISENTROPIC FLOW
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK TIMING OF BEST INSTABILITY TO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN THEN...INSTABILITY WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY
COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE WEST AS WEDGE BUILDS IN. AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE COULD STILL SEE SOME SURFACE BASED
ACTIVITY PER LATEST HRRR AND WRF WHICH SHOWS BOWING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.
&&
DEESE
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE
STATE. WEDGE FRONT BACKS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND HOLDS ITS
GROUND THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AGAINST THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SPREADS OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INSTABILITY INCREASES
EARLY SUNDAY AND THUNDER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. I HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEDGE AS SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD
MAKE IT ONTO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIMITED AS THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LOW/MID-LEVEL
SHEAR REMAIN A BIT OUT OF SYNC AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS ARE DOMINATED IN THE LOWEST LEVELS BY THE WEDGE...BUT
CANNOT BE DISMISSED ENTIRELY AS AMPLE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
BETTER PRECIPITATION BEGINS PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST
OF THE STATE POPS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH.
QPF TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY COME OUT AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF...AND
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...NO WIDESPREAD
HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
20
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUIDANCE AGREES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE
STILL ADVECTING NEWD ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DISCREPANCIES EXIST
IN THE STRENGTH OF THE CAD WEDGE AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH/MOISTURE. 12Z NAM IS COOLER/STRONGER WEDGE BUT WARMER BLEND
OF GUIDANCE LOOKS MOST REASONABLE WITH MONDAY NIGHT LOWS IN UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S. HAVE OVERALL TRENDED TEMPS DOWN A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST PER LATEST BLEND THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED POPS ALONG WITH PROGGED SLUG OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST. THIS LESS
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS CARRIED BY THE NAM AND 12Z ECMWF AND SEEMS
MORE LIKELY THAN THE QUICKER GFS. OTHERWISE HAVE LEFT REST OF
FORECAST PERIOD ALONE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH GUIDANCE VARIATION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014/
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH SHOWING AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE DRIVING
UPPER DISTURBANCE DOES NOT PUSH EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY...
SO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER ON
TUESDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES ON MONDAY... MODELS SHOW A
COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
PROVIDING A STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS SUGGEST THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA MONDAY-TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS. HOWEVER... IF THE WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO ADVANCE INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON... ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECAST.
OTHERWISE... LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BY MID WEEK... WITH THE
GFS THE FASTEST AND SHOWING A FROPA ON WEDNESDAY... WHILE THE
ECMWF SHOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. BOTH ARE FAIRLY DRY WITH
THIS SYSTEM... SO WILL ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTH GA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW DRY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
39
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
THUS FAR...-RA REMAINING WELL TO THE WEST INTO PORTIONS OF WEST
ALABAMA WITH EVEN MVFR MUCH SLOWER TO FORM THAN MODELS HAD
PROJECTED. IN FACT...LATEST REGIONAL VIEW FROM WEST ALABAMA
THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SHOWS ONLY VFR CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY. HAVE THIS TREND CONTINUING IN THE TAFS WITH ONLY A LINE
BREAK TO SWITCH WINDS AT ATL TO SE BY 03Z. DELAYED ONSET OF MVFR
TO 09Z WITH -SHRA STARTING JUST A LITTLE EARLIER AT 06Z. MVFR WILL
COME IN QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE THREAT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING FOR CIGS AND ONSET/PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 50 56 45 48 / 90 100 80 70
ATLANTA 52 60 47 51 / 90 100 70 60
BLAIRSVILLE 47 52 44 49 / 90 100 70 50
CARTERSVILLE 51 60 48 53 / 100 100 60 60
COLUMBUS 54 66 56 63 / 80 90 70 70
GAINESVILLE 50 54 43 46 / 90 100 70 60
MACON 52 66 54 58 / 70 90 80 70
ROME 51 61 49 54 / 100 100 60 50
PEACHTREE CITY 50 63 49 53 / 90 100 70 70
VIDALIA 56 72 58 59 / 50 80 80 90
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
153 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING MID AND LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT WHILE AT THE SURFACE A BROAD AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN
YIELDS INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WITH
SUNNY SKIES. LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY...
ESPECIALLY COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME CUMULUS POP UP
LATER IN THE DAY. THICKNESS PROGS FROM THE LATEST RUC13 SUPPORT
THE EXISTING HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO WE MAINTAINED TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH
AND WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED AND REMAIN OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WHERE A
SMALL SLIVER OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
FEATURES MID 40S INLAND RANGING TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S AT THE COAST.
SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL LEAD TO A WARM DAY WELL AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEKEND WITH
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S OVER MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW. HAVE
THEREFORE MAINTAINED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CHANCES INLAND LATE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE ALONG WITH EXPANDING
CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ENHANCED FORCING OCCURS
WITH A LOW LVL JET AHEAD OF A STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
WHILE TEMPS PEAK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL LIKELY RAMP UP SUNDAY EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS PWATS APPROACH 1.75 INCHES WHILE
ENHANCED FORCING OCCURS WITH THE STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE AND H25 JET
ALOFT. TEMPS WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD SUNDAY NIGHT...IN THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH MOST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTH AND OFFSHORE...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF FORCING THAT OCCURS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES WAY TO THE
ATLANTIC. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AS MOISTURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WHILE THE MID/UPPER LVL LOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL OFF CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY
AS A NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MONDAY HIGHS COULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S
EARLY...BEFORE COOLING OFF INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS...IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. DRYER CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN OVER THE REGION BY
TUESDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
WARM TO AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN DUE TO A
LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE MIDWEST. A WEAK/DRY
COLD FRONT COULD SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH
CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS ARE
LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FLOW WILL BE
NORTHEAST FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY TURNING MORE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF
THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KTS OR
LESS...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 15 KTS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WHERE
SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP. SEAS WILL BE 1 TO 2 FT. OVERNIGHT...THE
FLOW WILL TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE INTO THE
10-15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL TICK UPWARD TO 2-3 FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
OVER THE WATERS. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN INCREASE/BUILD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST AND SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WE COULD SEE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AND
NORTHERN SC WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS OFFSHORE. 6 FT SEAS COULD LINGER OVER OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS INTO MUCH OF MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY ALONG
THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN IMPROVE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 25 PERCENT
FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE GEORGIA COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE 15 MPH RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL
RECOVER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. WITH THIS COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND ELEVATED WINDS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...BSH/DPB
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1037 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING MID AND LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT WHILE AT THE SURFACE A BROAD AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN
YIELDS INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WITH
SUNNY SKIES. LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY...
ESPECIALLY COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME CUMULUS POP UP
LATER IN THE DAY. THICKNESS PROGS FROM THE LATEST RUC13 SUPPORT
THE EXISTING HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO WE MAINTAINED TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH
AND WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED AND REMAIN OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WHERE A
SMALL SLIVER OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
FEATURES MID 40S INLAND RANGING TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S AT THE COAST.
SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL LEAD TO A WARM DAY WELL AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEKEND WITH
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S OVER MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW. HAVE
THEREFORE MAINTAINED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CHANCES INLAND LATE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE ALONG WITH EXPANDING
CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ENHANCED FORCING OCCURS
WITH A LOW LVL JET AHEAD OF A STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...TEMPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
WHILE TEMPS PEAK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL LIKELY RAMP UP SUNDAY EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS PWATS APPROACH 1.75 INCHES WHILE
ENHANCED FORCING OCCURS WITH THE STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE AND H25 JET
ALOFT. TEMPS WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD SUNDAY NIGHT...IN THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH MOST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOUTH AND OFFSHORE...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF FORCING THAT OCCURS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES WAY TO THE
ATLANTIC. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AS MOISTURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WHILE THE MID/UPPER LVL LOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL OFF CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY
AS A NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MONDAY HIGHS COULD PEAK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S
EARLY...BEFORE COOLING OFF INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS...IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. DRYER CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN OVER THE REGION BY
TUESDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
WARM TO AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN DUE TO A
LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE MIDWEST. A WEAK/DRY
COLD FRONT COULD SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH
CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS ARE
LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FLOW WILL BE
NORTHEAST FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY TURNING MORE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF
THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KTS OR
LESS...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 15 KTS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WHERE
SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP. SEAS WILL BE 1 TO 2 FT. OVERNIGHT...THE
FLOW WILL TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE INTO THE
10-15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL TICK UPWARD TO 2-3 FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
OVER THE WATERS. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN INCREASE/BUILD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST AND SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WE COULD SEE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AND
NORTHERN SC WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS OFFSHORE. 6 FT SEAS COULD LINGER OVER OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS INTO MUCH OF MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY ALONG
THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN IMPROVE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 25 PERCENT
FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE GEORGIA COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE 15 MPH RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL
RECOVER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. WITH THIS COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND ELEVATED WINDS...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...DPB/JAQ
MARINE...BSH/DPB
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
906 AM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014
.UPDATE...PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AXIS HAS REACHED COAST PER SAT
IMAGERY. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ALONG WITH SURFACE OBS SHOW PRECIP
ALREADY FALLING IN NORTHEAST OREGON. TIMING OF FEATURES HOLD OFF
ON PRECIP UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SO WILL MAINTAIN
ZERO POPS UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SURFACE DEWPOINTS QUITE DRY SO EXPECT
IT WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT FOR PRECIP TO MOISTEN LOWER LEVELS. THIS
CONCEPT SHOWN NICELY IN RECENT HRRR AND RUC PRECIP FIELDS. BELIEVE
CURRENT FORECAST PRECIP GRIDS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH MODERATE POP
AND LOW QPF. COLD FRONT PASSAGE STILL EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED
THIS MORNING. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WEAK PACIFIC TROF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND BRING IN SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS MAINLY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY AT MOST 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED IN HIGH ELEVATIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THAT SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER ONE
MONDAY. EXPECT SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
GK
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
COME INTO AGREEMENT ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALSO LOOK GREATER...PARTICULARLY
IN THE GFS. SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS COULD BE 2 TO 5 INCHES ABOVE 6000 FEET. VERY STRONG WINDS
IN THE SNAKE PLAIN STILL SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...14/00Z GFS MOS UP TO
48KTS AT POCATELLO. THIS COULD BE AN OVER ESTIMATE BUT THIS REALLY
NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME REALLY STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...SOURCE AREA LOOKS TO BE
THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA WHERE UPPER AIR OBSERVATION NEAR PAUL
ISLAND REPORTED -31C TEMPERATURE NEAR 700 MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON.
GFS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO MONDAY
AFTERNOON IS MUCH HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF. IF IT PANNED OUT...COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD DRIVE WINDS TO HIGH
WIND WARNING LEVEL. COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE MONDAY COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS AND RETURN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN TO
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT. MODELS AR SHOWING MORE CONSENSUS ON HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THIS ARA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WAS LOWERED QUITE A BIT. COULD
BE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES. RS
AVIATION...INCREASING MIDDLE AND UPPER CLOUDS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT SHOULD REACH KSUN 22-23Z AND KPIH
00-01Z. SNAKE PLAIN WINDS SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KTS GUST 35 BETWEEN 21Z
AND 03Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR AND A COUPLE-THREE HOURS BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 6400 FEET AT KBYI
SLOPING TO ABOUT 5800 FEET AT KIDA...DROPPING TO 5700 TO 5200 FEET
BEHIND THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD VFR SATURDAY UNDER TRANSITORY HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. RS
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO IL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY COMPACT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER LAKE HURON AND A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SRN WI INTO NW IL. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN THE COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND FRONT. 850MB TEMPERATURES DIP TO AROUND -2C TO -4C BY 12Z
SATURDAY LEADING TO LOWS IN THE MID 20S INLAND NORTH...WITH UPPER
20S IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND FROM THE CITY AND SOUTH ALONG
THE LAKE. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE HURON MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH ALONG WITH SOME LOWER COLD ADVECTION CLOUDS TO PREVENT
TEMPS FROM GETTING EVEN COLDER.
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW SATURDAY. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS
AND CANADIAN GEM BRING PCPN TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY...IN
SPITE OF STRENGTHENING 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. LACK OF PCPN LOOKS
TO BE TIED TO DRY LAYER BELOW 5K FT ON CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THAT IS REFLECTED AS WELL IN HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES. A BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO NRN CWA...WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE COMING SATURDAY NIGHT. TOP DOWN METHOD INDICATES IT
WILL BE ALL SNOW...THOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BRINGS A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
HIGH PRESSURE SINGKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH ARCTIC
AIR INTO NORTHERN IL BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN IL
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS A NARROW ZONE OF STRONG...SLOPED 925-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS SLIPS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW OVER A FAIRLY
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND AMOUNT TO AROUND ONE INCH TOTAL. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SUNDAY WILL BE A BITTER DAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS...SCATTERED
LOW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. WITH
SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE...LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 30S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY TO
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT NORTHERN IL WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MN TUE AND INTO CENTRAL
MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ANY PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE RAIN.
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN FOR WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
LOT FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS
FRONT THAN THE GFS. EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW WITH THIS FRONT...WITH PRECIP ENDING SHORTLY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S...A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MID MARCH. MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER PUSH OF WARM AIR APPROACHING IL ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GUSTY SURFACE WINDS TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
* MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO IMPACT TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS
EVENING.
BAK
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS THE NORTHWEST IL/NORTHEAST IN
TERMINAL AREA ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. THE FRONT IS COMING THROUGH DRY
AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A MVFR STRATO CU DECK WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT NOW APPEARS POISED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS/EXTRAPOLATION.
LATER THIS EVENING...SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT...WITH WINDS
TRENDING LIGHT AS A SKINNY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING
THE NIGHT. VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING
AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AFTER
THE END OF THE 18Z TAF VALID TIME.
BAK
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING.
BAK
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
SUNDAY...VFR PROBABLE. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR FAIR WEATHER.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RA TUES AFTERNOON & NIGHT WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA/SN. MVFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...VFR FAIR.
ED F
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
WILL LET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT
10 PM WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AS LOW MOVES EAST OF
LAKE HURON AND ACROSS SW QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. A SECOND SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW...OR A MIX...TO NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL
TURN NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO NEAR GALE
FORCE IN THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. JUST BORDERLINE AT
THIS TIME SO NO WATCH...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BURNS
HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-GARY TO
BURNS HARBOR-NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-WILMETTE
HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE
HARBOR.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REM
LONG TERM...MRC
MARINE...REM
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
302 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 256 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014
Forecast problems is the light snow event on Sunday, and a front
producing light rain Tuesday night to Wed.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night.
Upper air and moisture channel data this morning shows upper wave
over IA driving surface front through IA today. Clouds are the
only result of this feature, but with gusty winds both ahead of
and behind the front. Next system handled similar by the models,
is an upper level trof moving from NE/KS and through MO, which
deepens surface low that moves through MO to TN/southern KY. As a
result, pcpn develops north of low over the southern 1/2 of IL
late Sat night, and through day Sun. Pcpn will start as rain
overnight in central and southeast CWA, changing over to all snow
in the central on Sun and southeast by afternoon. Best overrunning
north of the low is over the southeast sections, in the afternoon
Sunday when the cold air reaches the area and so 2-3 inches psbl
in that region. Started with WWD amounts, modifying the QPF
amounts and having rain or mixture in southeast intially until
cold air reachs area, as the forecast soundings indicated.
LONG TERM...Monday to Friday
Long range is mainly quiet, but the period of Tuesday night to
Wednesday. During that period, another system will push a front
through early Wednesday, with a chance of light rain for the area.
Temperatures through the period remain below normal.
Goetsch
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1233 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014
Cold front currently in the Illinois River Valley will work its
way eastward through central Illinois over the next couple of
hours. HRRR seems to be handling timing of FROPA fairly well, so
will follow it closely this afternoon. Winds will veer to W/NW at
KPIA at 18z, then further east to KCMI by around 21z. Gusts will
generally be in the 20 to 25kt range, but will occasionally reach
30kt at both KBMI and KCMI. Gusty winds will subside by sunset,
then will go light/variable overnight as high pressure builds into
the area. Once the high begins to shift off to the east, a light
southeasterly return flow will develop by Saturday morning. High
clouds currently blanketing central Illinois will shift eastward
with the front this afternoon, followed by clear skies tonight.
After that, a band of mid-level clouds associated with warm
advection will develop mainly across Iowa into northern Illinois
by Saturday morning. Will include BKN cloud deck at around 12000ft
at both KPIA and KBMI after 14z accordingly.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1252 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
341 AM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING CENTER AROUND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 40 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT AS A WARMER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. YESTERDAY
EVENINGS RAOBS INDICATED THAT DOWN SLOPING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...INDUCED BY THIS SYSTEM...HAD DEVELOPED A THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES FEATURING 10+ DEGREE CELSIUS 850 TEMPS.
THIS THERMAL RIDGE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BRIEFLY TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD YIELD A FAIRLY MILD DAY INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MY
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO FAIRLY WEAK INITIAL PUSH OF COLDER
AIR...IT SHOULD NOT CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY...WHICH SHOULD PUSH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE WARM SECTOR
AIRMASS...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MORE THAN A
SPRINKLE TO THE SURFACE. I HAVE LEFT THIS MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO THE LOW LIKELIHOOD AND OVERALL SMALL IMPACT.
THE MAIN STORY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY...IN RESPONSE
TO DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A RAPIDLY BUILDING WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH MOST PRECIP ALSO REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN SPITE OF THIS...IT APPEARS THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A DECENT BAND OF MID-LEVEL FGEN
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE AS A COLD CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. OVERALL...THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS
WOULD LIKELY BE AROUND AN INCH AT MOST. I HAVE INCREASE POPS DURING
THIS TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THE PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA AS
DRIER AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. THE MAIN
STORY FOR SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK
TO REMAIN IN THE 20S NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 40S NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
STORY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
DECENT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ON THE EXACT
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT IT WILL PRESENT US WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
BY MIDWEEK. AT THIS JUNCTURE...I WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* GUSTY SURFACE WINDS TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
* MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO IMPACT TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS
EVENING.
BAK
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS THE NORTHWEST IL/NORTHEAST IN
TERMINAL AREA ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. THE FRONT IS COMING THROUGH DRY
AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A MVFR STRATO CU DECK WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT NOW APPEARS POISED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS/EXTRAPOLATION.
LATER THIS EVENING...SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT...WITH WINDS
TRENDING LIGHT AS A SKINNY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING
THE NIGHT. VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING
AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AFTER
THE END OF THE 18Z TAF VALID TIME.
BAK
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING.
BAK
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
SUNDAY...VFR PROBABLE. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR FAIR WEATHER.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RA TUES AFTERNOON & NIGHT WITH VFR BECOMING MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA/SN. MVFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...VFR FAIR.
ED F
&&
.MARINE...
328 AM CDT
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER WEST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN EASE OFF
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ONCE
AGAIN RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT...
WITH LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT.
ED F
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1233 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1000 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014
14z/9am surface analysis shows a cold front approaching the
Mississippi River, while brisk southwesterly winds prevail further
east across central and southeast Illinois. Front is expected to
reach the I-55 corridor by early afternoon, then sink southeast of
I-70 by late afternoon/early evening. Area soundings show very little
moisture for the boundary to work with, so am expecting a dry
FROPA with just some mid/high clouds. Latest satellite imagery
shows quite a bit of high cloud cover streaming northeastward
across Missouri/Illinois ahead of the front, so have boosted sky
cover grids accordingly. 12z KILX upper air sounding shows a
strong low-level jet just off the surface, with 50kt winds noted
at 2000ft aloft. Have therefore increased the wind gusts to
between 30 and 35 mph as higher momentum air mixes to the surface.
Strongest winds will be concentrated east of I-55 as pressure
gradient further west will gradually relax with approach of front
this afternoon. Also made a few tweaks to afternoon highs, mainly
to lower them a couple of degrees across the SE CWA due to thicker
cloud cover across that area. Will still see highs reach the mid
to upper 50s across most locations, with lower 60s south of I-70.
Zone update has already been sent.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1233 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014
Cold front currently in the Illinois River Valley will work its
way eastward through central Illinois over the next couple of
hours. HRRR seems to be handling timing of FROPA fairly well, so
will follow it closely this afternoon. Winds will veer to W/NW at
KPIA at 18z, then further east to KCMI by around 21z. Gusts will
generally be in the 20 to 25kt range, but will occasionally reach
30kt at both KBMI and KCMI. Gusty winds will subside by sunset,
then will go light/variable overnight as high pressure builds into
the area. Once the high begins to shift off to the east, a light
southeasterly return flow will develop by Saturday morning. High
clouds currently blanketing central Illinois will shift eastward
with the front this afternoon, followed by clear skies tonight.
After that, a band of mid-level clouds associated with warm
advection will develop mainly across Iowa into northern Illinois
by Saturday morning. Will include BKN cloud deck at around 12000ft
at both KPIA and KBMI after 14z accordingly.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 317 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014
Main concerns this package include chances of pcpn Sat night
through Sunday, and then again Tuesday through Wednesday. Models
have trended little further south with the weekend system as the
trough digs further into the southern plains. So a blend of the
models looks ok with this system. With the second system, the
models have come into much better agreement with timing, but still
differ with the way the upper level system looks. Will lean toward
maintaining going forecast, but with better agreement will need to
raise pops a little.
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday
Tight gradient today will bring gusty winds to the area ahead of a
cold front that should move through the area during the afternoon.
Winds will then decrease behind the system as a narrow ridge of
high pressure moves across the region. Then the next system will
drop out of the northern plains toward the south. Models show a
somewhat split flow merging into one with the dominate surface low
becoming the one to the south. There is good agreement with what
should transpire on the surface in with the flow, so confidence is
high enough to warrant raising pops into the likely category for
Sunday in the south. As the system drops south, there is a chance
that some rain/snow will occur northwest of the IL river Sat
night. However, the main focus of pcpn will be in the south half
of the cwa as the system deepens a little and moves out of TX and
toward the southeastern US. How far north the pcpn will spread
into IL will depend on amount of moisture it pulls in and the
strength of the system. So will have likely pops in the southeast
with chance to the north. With surface flow from the northeast
Sunday night, temperatures should drop sufficiently so that p-type
over most of the area will be snow. Southeast IL will be closer to
some warmer air, so have p-type as rain or snow.
Temps will be spring-like today and in some areas tomorrow, but
then below normal temps are expected for Sunday with lots of
clouds, so it will return to being chilly.
LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday
Another narrow ridge of high pressure will move through the region
Sunday night through Monday night. Then the next system moves out
of the northern Rockies and into the plains by Tuesday. Southerly
winds ahead of the system should bring warmer temps back into the
region, so p-type will mainly be rain. Based on the track of the
low pressure remaining mainly west of most of the area, colder
temps should not advect back into the region until Wed night,
after the pcpn has departed the area. Moisture could be limited
with this system since the period of return flow is very short.
Temps will start on the cool side but then warm ahead of the Tue
night system. Should be some cooler air advecting into the area
behind the system as the upper level trough moves across the
region, but believe mid March sunshine could keep things from
getting too cool for end of the week.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
148 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TODAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE WARMER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SPRINKLES
CHANGING OVER TO A FEW FLURRIES. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S ON SATURDAY
AND THE 20S ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND DUE
TO THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL COME NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
I INCREASED THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 AS A LOOK AT BOTH THE DTX AND MADIS ACARS GRR SOUNDINGS SHOW A
VERY STRONG INVERSION WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 50F AT 3200 FT AGL
AT 8 AM. LITTLE QUESTION WITH THE MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 OVER THE AREA... EVEN WITH THE
SNOW COVER.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION THERE ARE SOME ECHOES ON RADAR NORTH OF
LUDINGTON AND THE HRRR SHOWS THEM MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE BAND SHOULD CROSS THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON...REACHING EASTERN AREAS BY 4 PM OR SO.
TONIGHT THE RH IN THE LOWER 5000 FT IS ABOVE 90 PCT AND THERE IS
SOME LIFT... SO I EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CHANGING
TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. NONE OF THE PRECIPITATION
TODAY WILL AMOUNT TO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
LIMITED WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT PERTAIN TO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR AND RAP HI-RES
SHORT TERM MODELS BOTH SHOW PRECIPITATION IN A NARROW RIBBON ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. HAVE 30 PCT CHC POPS NORTH AND 20 PCT SOUTH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH DEPTH TO THE
MOISTURE FOR THIS TO OCCUR. TEMPS SHOULD NOSE INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
FOR HIGHS. READINGS ARE ALREADY AROUND 40 AT THIS TIME OF NIGHT
ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL WHICH IS OUR SOURCE REGION TODAY.
IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE A GOOD BET. A LLJ ON THE
ORDER OF 50 KNOTS OR SO WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HOLLAND IS ALREADY SEEING STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 29 KNOTS.
TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND
ENVISION A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES AROUND. HAVE MINIMAL POPS IN
TONIGHT...20 PCT...TO COVER THE LIGHT PRECIP. 850MB TEMPS BY
MORNING WILL HAVE FALLEN BACK TO -5 TO -10C FROM +7C THIS MORNING.
DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BUT WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP
NEARBY...BUT JUST FEEL WE ARE GOING TO BE TOO DRY TO SQUEEZE
ANYTHING OUT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE UNDERGOING A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
WAA DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS
OUR REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND GUSTS
OVER 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL TAF SITES. A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMKG AND KGRR. UPON SUNSET THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH. OTHERWISE VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH LOWER CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS. THESE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN WRN WI. THIS SHIELD OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY PUSH
AWAY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014
THE PERIODS OF WARMER TEMPERATURE WITH LIMITED RAIN MIXED WITH COLD
SNAPS OF LATE HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASE IN ICE DEPTH ON RIVERS AND
HAS DECREASED THE MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE SNOW PACK. CURRENT SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...
WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE CHANCES FOR ICE JAM FORMATION AND FLOODING AS
WE PROGRESS INTO SPRING.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1103 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TODAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE WARMER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SPRINKLES
CHANGING OVER TO A FEW FLURRIES. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S ON SATURDAY
AND THE 20S ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND DUE
TO THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL COME NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
I INCREASED THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 AS A LOOK AT BOTH THE DTX AND MADIS ACARS GRR SOUNDINGS SHOW A
VERY STRONG INVERSION WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 50F AT 3200 FT AGL
AT 8 AM. LITTLE QUESTION WITH THE MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 OVER THE AREA... EVEN WITH THE
SNOW COVER.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION THERE ARE SOME ECHOES ON RADAR NORTH OF
LUDINGTON AND THE HRRR SHOWS THEM MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE BAND SHOULD CROSS THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON...REACHING EASTERN AREAS BY 4 PM OR SO.
TONIGHT THE RH IN THE LOWER 5000 FT IS ABOVE 90 PCT AND THERE IS
SOME LIFT... SO I EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CHANGING
TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. NONE OF THE PRECIPITATION
TODAY WILL AMOUNT TO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
LIMITED WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT PERTAIN TO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR AND RAP HI-RES
SHORT TERM MODELS BOTH SHOW PRECIPITATION IN A NARROW RIBBON ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. HAVE 30 PCT CHC POPS NORTH AND 20 PCT SOUTH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH DEPTH TO THE
MOISTURE FOR THIS TO OCCUR. TEMPS SHOULD NOSE INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
FOR HIGHS. READINGS ARE ALREADY AROUND 40 AT THIS TIME OF NIGHT
ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL WHICH IS OUR SOURCE REGION TODAY.
IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE A GOOD BET. A LLJ ON THE
ORDER OF 50 KNOTS OR SO WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HOLLAND IS ALREADY SEEING STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 29 KNOTS.
TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND
ENVISION A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES AROUND. HAVE MINIMAL POPS IN
TONIGHT...20 PCT...TO COVER THE LIGHT PRECIP. 850MB TEMPS BY
MORNING WILL HAVE FALLEN BACK TO -5 TO -10C FROM +7C THIS MORNING.
DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BUT WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP
NEARBY...BUT JUST FEEL WE ARE GOING TO BE TOO DRY TO SQUEEZE
ANYTHING OUT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE UNDERGOING A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
WAA DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS
OUR REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE WIND...WHICH WILL PEAK THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED. SOME WIND SHEAR WILL BE SEEN AS WELL GIVEN WINDS AT
2000FT FROM 240 AROUND 50 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN UP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BACK OF SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 KNOTS. THE CORE OF WINDS
AT 2000FT SHOULD DECREASE A BIT TO NEAR 35 KNOTS.
CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN TODAY...BUT BASES WILL REMAIN VFR AT
LEAST THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. AROUND 00Z...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD SWEEP
IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH AN MVFR DECK AROUND 1500FT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY. THE
SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS WELL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014
THE PERIODS OF WARMER TEMPERATURE WITH LIMITED RAIN MIXED WITH COLD
SNAPS OF LATE HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASE IN ICE DEPTH ON RIVERS AND
HAS DECREASED THE MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE SNOW PACK. CURRENT SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...
WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE CHANCES FOR ICE JAM FORMATION AND FLOODING AS
WE PROGRESS INTO SPRING.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
736 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TODAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE WARMER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SPRINKLES
CHANGING OVER TO A FEW FLURRIES. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S ON SATURDAY
AND THE 20S ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND DUE
TO THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL COME NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
LIMITED WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT PERTAIN TO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR AND RAP HI-RES
SHORT TERM MODELS BOTH SHOW PRECIPITATION IN A NARROW RIBBON ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. HAVE 30 PCT CHC POPS NORTH AND 20 PCT SOUTH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH DEPTH TO THE
MOISTURE FOR THIS TO OCCUR. TEMPS SHOULD NOSE INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
FOR HIGHS. READINGS ARE ALREADY AROUND 40 AT THIS TIME OF NIGHT
ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL WHICH IS OUR SOURCE REGION TODAY.
IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE A GOOD BET. A LLJ ON THE
ORDER OF 50 KNOTS OR SO WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HOLLAND IS ALREADY SEEING STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 29 KNOTS.
TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND
ENVISION A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES AROUND. HAVE MINIMAL POPS IN
TONIGHT...20 PCT...TO COVER THE LIGHT PRECIP. 850MB TEMPS BY
MORNING WILL HAVE FALLEN BACK TO -5 TO -10C FROM +7C THIS MORNING.
DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BUT WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP
NEARBY...BUT JUST FEEL WE ARE GOING TO BE TOO DRY TO SQUEEZE
ANYTHING OUT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE UNDERGOING A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
WAA DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS
OUR REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE WIND...WHICH WILL PEAK THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED. SOME WIND SHEAR WILL BE SEEN AS WELL GIVEN WINDS AT
2000FT FROM 240 AROUND 50 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN UP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BACK OF SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 KNOTS. THE CORE OF WINDS
AT 2000FT SHOULD DECREASE A BIT TO NEAR 35 KNOTS.
CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN TODAY...BUT BASES WILL REMAIN VFR AT
LEAST THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. AROUND 00Z...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD SWEEP
IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH AN MVFR DECK AROUND 1500FT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY. THE
SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS WELL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014
THE PERIODS OF WARMER TEMPERATURE WITH LIMITED RAIN MIXED WITH COLD
SNAPS OF LATE HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASE IN ICE DEPTH ON RIVERS AND
HAS DECREASED THE MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE SNOW PACK. CURRENT SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...
WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE CHANCES FOR ICE JAM FORMATION AND FLOODING AS
WE PROGRESS INTO SPRING.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
321 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TODAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE WARMER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SPRINKLES
CHANGING OVER TO A FEW FLURRIES. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S ON SATURDAY
AND THE 20S ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND DUE
TO THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL COME NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
LIMITED WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT PERTAIN TO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR AND RAP HI-RES
SHORT TERM MODELS BOTH SHOW PRECIPITATION IN A NARROW RIBBON ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. HAVE 30 PCT CHC POPS NORTH AND 20 PCT SOUTH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH DEPTH TO THE
MOISTURE FOR THIS TO OCCUR. TEMPS SHOULD NOSE INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
FOR HIGHS. READINGS ARE ALREADY AROUND 40 AT THIS TIME OF NIGHT
ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL WHICH IS OUR SOURCE REGION TODAY.
IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE A GOOD BET. A LLJ ON THE
ORDER OF 50 KNOTS OR SO WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HOLLAND IS ALREADY SEEING STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 29 KNOTS.
TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND
ENVISION A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES AROUND. HAVE MINIMAL POPS IN
TONIGHT...20 PCT...TO COVER THE LIGHT PRECIP. 850MB TEMPS BY
MORNING WILL HAVE FALLEN BACK TO -5 TO -10C FROM +7C THIS MORNING.
DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BUT WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP
NEARBY...BUT JUST FEEL WE ARE GOING TO BE TOO DRY TO SQUEEZE
ANYTHING OUT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. TEMPS IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE UNDERGOING A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
WAA DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS
OUR REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIN STRATUS WITH BASES 1500 TO 2500 FEET
AGL FROM MKG TO LAN LATE THURSDAY EVENING IS FINALLY STARTING TO
LIFT NORTH AND EAST. OTHER THAN THIS VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014
THE PERIODS OF WARMER TEMPERATURE WITH LIMITED RAIN MIXED WITH COLD
SNAPS OF LATE HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASE IN ICE DEPTH ON RIVERS AND
HAS DECREASED THE MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE SNOW PACK. CURRENT SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...
WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE CHANCES FOR ICE JAM FORMATION AND FLOODING AS
WE PROGRESS INTO SPRING.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
316 PM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...
AN ENERGETIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH SEEN OVER EASTERN WA ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AT 21 UTC WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SAT.
FIRST OFF ALL...WE LET THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER
BASIN EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER IS BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND IT
APPEARS THAT SNOWMELT AROUND HARLOWTON AND TWODOT IS GOING SLOWLY.
THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR SLOW RUNOFF...AND SINCE THE RIVER ITSELF HAS
MUCH MORE CAPACITY FOR NEW WATER SINCE THE ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT AND
STAGES HAVE FALLEN CONSIDERABLY THIS WEEK...THE RISK OF ADDITIONAL
FLOODING APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR RISES REMAIN LIKELY
THOUGH AND WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES.
TONIGHT...A STRONG BATCH OF QG-FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND IT WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE ALOFT...WITH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM. THE POTENCY OF THE WAVE
IS BORNE OUT BOTH BY STARK DRYING IN ITS WAKE UPSTREAM OVER WA AND
OR ON AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGES...AND THE LIGHTNING THAT/S ALSO
ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE. THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE AND THE
MORE RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AGREES WELL AND
SUGGESTS RAIN SHOWERS QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE
DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE /IN OTHER WORDS...EAST OF A ROUNDUP...BILLINGS
AND LODGE GRASS LINE/. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING EMBEDDED
IN AN UNSTABLE LAYER...SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY EVEN WHERE WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WOULD NORMALLY NEGATE THAT ACTIVITY. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING WILL QUICKLY WORK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT AFTER 06 UTC BEHIND
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SO THE BRUNT OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MT BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE RAIN TONIGHT...BUT WE HAVE A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST AFTER 09 UTC WHEN WET BULB COOLING SHOULD
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF ALLOWING FROZEN HYDROMETEORS TO MAKE IT TO
THE GROUND.
SAT...STRONG LOW- AND MID-LEVEL WINDS WITH 850- AND 700-HPA SPEEDS
OF 40 TO 50 KT WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SHORT WAVE...AND SIGNIFICANT SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL TRACK
ACROSS EASTERN MT DURING THE MORNING. WE EXPECT A WINDY DAY...WITH
A LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OR STRONG LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
KEEPING A BIT OF A LID ON THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE WINDS ALOFT IN
MOST AREAS. WE EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AT SHERIDAN WHERE THE
12 UTC GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME BETTER SUBSIDENCE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BUT THOSE SAME MODELS BACKED OFF A BIT ON WIND SPEEDS IN THE WELL-
MIXED LAYER AT SHERIDAN...SO WE HELD OFF ON A HIGH WIND WATCH. THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF MT WILL BE IN LINE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SAT WITH
POTENTIAL WRAP-AROUND...TROWAL-LIKE MOISTURE IMPACTING AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HYSHAM TO LAME DEER. THE 12 UTC MODELS DID
BACK OFF ON THAT POTENTIAL A BIT...BUT THE 09 UTC SREF STAYED WITH
THAT THEME WITH 70+ PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF MOISTURE...AND THE 18
UTC NAM ARRIVED WITH AN EVEN MORE ROBUST BATCH OF WRAP-AROUND SNOW
AS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE HEADS SOUTHEAST. WE DON/T FEEL THIS EVENT
WILL NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...BUT THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING.
BY SUN...TRANSIENT...BUT DISTINCT RIDGING ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD AND
WE STILL EXPECT A VERY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. LEE-
SIDE PRESSURE FALLS WILL DRIVE GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
LIVINGSTON AREA...WHERE GAP ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE. IT APPEARS WE
WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY AROUND LIVINGSTON WITH A LATER FORECAST.
THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A 10 TO 15 HPA SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN IDAHO FALLS AND LEWISTOWN SUN AND SUN NIGHT...AND
THAT IS USUALLY ENOUGH FOR 60 MPH GUSTS AT LIVINGSTON. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...THOUGH THE
ECMWF FORECASTS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MORE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS EXIST LATE IN THE EXTENDED AS THEY ARE HAVING SOME
TROUBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME...THE GFS FORECASTS A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF WASHES THE TROUGH OUT IN
ZONAL FLOW AS ENHANCED TROUGHING TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
ALASKA.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A STORM SYSTEM PUSHES FROM THE PACIFIC
NW INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A SCENARIO THAT FAVORS THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS SUCH...I
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS THERE AND UPPED PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...TOO. IT WILL NOT HURT THAT
MOIST...WRAPAROUND...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST HILLS...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO TELL
EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL...BUT SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TUESDAY...THE AREA REMAINS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
WORK WITH WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPS ONLY
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...SO
MILDER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHAT
WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SO I INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. STC
&&
.AVIATION...
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ROUTES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR...AND
POSSIBLY SOME IFR...AS THEY CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY WEAKEN A BIT THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039/050 033/064 041/052 030/045 026/050 031/054 032/053
53/O 01/N 17/R 74/W 21/B 11/B 21/B
LVM 032/046 029/055 037/047 024/042 022/047 027/052 028/051
62/O 00/N 19/R 74/J 21/B 11/B 22/W
HDN 036/049 031/064 041/054 030/046 028/052 029/055 029/056
75/O 11/N 17/R 75/W 21/B 11/B 21/B
MLS 036/042 029/062 040/052 031/044 027/049 028/055 030/054
88/O 11/N 27/R 74/W 21/B 11/B 21/B
4BQ 035/044 026/063 038/055 031/044 027/048 028/054 029/053
77/O 11/B 16/R 75/W 21/B 11/B 00/B
BHK 033/038 023/060 037/051 028/042 024/047 027/051 027/051
88/O 11/N 26/R 74/W 21/B 01/B 11/B
SHR 032/046 025/061 035/054 028/042 023/047 025/053 024/051
65/O 11/B 16/R 75/W 21/B 11/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1235 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
THE HOURLY RAPID REFRESH MODELS ARE INDICATING MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE THAN THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT IS. AS A RESULT...WE ARE
UPDATING THE DEWPOINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY GRIDS FOR LOWER
VALUES...THOUGH NOT QUITE TO THE SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS INDICATED
BY THE HRRR AND RAP13 SHORT TERM MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AND CURRENTLY IS
DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NE AND ALONG THE WESTERN
KS/NE BORDER. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN GENERALLY 10-15 MPH
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY
IN THE FAR EAST /ONEILL AREA/ ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD BEFORE
DECREASING IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH SOME
INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE GONE
A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FOR TODAY...CLOSER TO THE BIAS
CORRECTED DATA. DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE EAST WILL
MAKE FIRE DANGER ELEVATED TODAY...MORE DETAILS IN THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
CONCERNS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN FOCUS TURNS
TO A STORM SYSTEM SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL MOVE
INLAND TODAY...THEN WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE BROAD TROUGH SITUATED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HAVING TWO SEPARATE PIECES OF ENERGY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS. THE FIRST DROPS IN ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA...WHILE THE SECOND IS FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVES DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT QUICKER BRINGING
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY AS IT IS NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY MID MORNING. AS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ALSO INCREASED WINDS ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD MIXING TO 750MB WITH WINDS AT THAT
LEVEL UP AROUND 30KTS.
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THERE IS GOOD LARGE-SCALE LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT SEEN
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THEN LOOKING AT MOISTURE PROFILES...CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY MID-DAY SATURDAY AND
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER
BELOW 800MB THAT PRESENTS AN ISSUE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE
LOW LEVELS DO EVENTUALLY SATURATE...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH THE AMOUNT OF LIFT...WILL LIKELY BE SEEING
PRECIPITATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THEN
SPREADING EAST...JUST HOW MUCH ACCUMULATES IS IN QUESTION. AND...THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE OF WHAT REACHES THE GROUND IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT THE WET-BULB PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SNOW.
THEREFORE WENT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
COLDER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AS
THE COLUMN SATURATES CHANGED EVERYTHING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC SUNDAY
AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE FINALLY
STARTING TO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CONUS...SO
CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO INCREASE FOR THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM WITH THE MODEL THAT IS STRONGEST BEING THE OUTLIER. FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE KEPT THE FORECAST TRENDED TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT
SOLUTION...WHICH FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND GEM.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES BY THE END
OF THE DAY MONDAY...WHILE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS A BROAD
SURFACE LOW FROM EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS
WILL BRING ABOUT GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND
WITH A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE ALOFT 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM
AT 10C TO 18C ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA /DEPENDENT ON THE MODEL/.
AGAIN...WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE NOT JUMPED ON THE EXTREMELY
WARM SOLUTIONS BUT IF THEY CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
MAY NEED TO DO FURTHER ADJUSTING UP ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND COULD BRING
DRIER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DAY.
THEN LOOKING TO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE
PLAINS...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...AND THUS
LEADING TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES RANGE FROM THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA FROM THE ECMWF/GEM TO THE GFS
SHOWING THE LOW CROSSING KANSAS. THESE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS LEAD TO
VERY DIFFERENT SENSIBLE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH BOTH WOULD BE COOLER
ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AGAIN...KEPT WITH THE MORE
CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND DIDN/T BUY INTO THE GFS AT THIS TIME. FOR
NOW...HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN TUESDAY NIGHT TO QUICKLY
PUSH ANY PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
RAIN/SNOW IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...YET DYNAMIC COOLING
COULD CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW.
BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN KEEPS COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
A FRONT COMING THROUGH NEBRASKA SATURDAY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH THE SPEED INCREASING TO 14-18G22-28KT.
OTHERWISE...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADVERSE IMPACT ON FLIGHT
OPERATIONS DUE TO CEILING AND VISIBILITY. AS THE FRONT GOES
THROUGH...CEILING WILL DECREASE TO 4000-5000 FEET AGL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
USING LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD INDICATED IS
BRINGING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS TO 15-20 PERCENT. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS STILL JUST ABOVE THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD AND WIND GUSTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH 25 MPH...SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES. THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE PARAMETERS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
929 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
THE HOURLY RAPID REFRESH MODELS ARE INDICATING MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE THAN THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT IS. AS A RESULT...WE ARE
UPDATING THE DEWPOINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY GRIDS FOR LOWER
VALUES...THOUGH NOT QUITE TO THE SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS INDICATED
BY THE HRRR AND RAP13 SHORT TERM MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AND CURRENTLY IS
DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NE AND ALONG THE WESTERN
KS/NE BORDER. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN GENERALLY 10-15 MPH
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY
IN THE FAR EAST /ONEILL AREA/ ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD BEFORE
DECREASING IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH SOME
INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE GONE
A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FOR TODAY...CLOSER TO THE BIAS
CORRECTED DATA. DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE EAST WILL
MAKE FIRE DANGER ELEVATED TODAY...MORE DETAILS IN THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
CONCERNS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN FOCUS TURNS
TO A STORM SYSTEM SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL MOVE
INLAND TODAY...THEN WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE BROAD TROUGH SITUATED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HAVING TWO SEPARATE PIECES OF ENERGY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS. THE FIRST DROPS IN ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA...WHILE THE SECOND IS FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVES DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT QUICKER BRINGING
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY AS IT IS NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY MID MORNING. AS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ALSO INCREASED WINDS ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD MIXING TO 750MB WITH WINDS AT THAT
LEVEL UP AROUND 30KTS.
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THERE IS GOOD LARGE-SCALE LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT SEEN
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THEN LOOKING AT MOISTURE PROFILES...CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY MID-DAY SATURDAY AND
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER
BELOW 800MB THAT PRESENTS AN ISSUE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE
LOW LEVELS DO EVENTUALLY SATURATE...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH THE AMOUNT OF LIFT...WILL LIKELY BE SEEING
PRECIPITATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THEN
SPREADING EAST...JUST HOW MUCH ACCUMULATES IS IN QUESTION. AND...THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE OF WHAT REACHES THE GROUND IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT THE WET-BULB PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SNOW.
THEREFORE WENT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
COLDER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AS
THE COLUMN SATURATES CHANGED EVERYTHING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC SUNDAY
AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE FINALLY
STARTING TO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CONUS...SO
CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO INCREASE FOR THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM WITH THE MODEL THAT IS STRONGEST BEING THE OUTLIER. FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE KEPT THE FORECAST TRENDED TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT
SOLUTION...WHICH FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND GEM.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES BY THE END
OF THE DAY MONDAY...WHILE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS A BROAD
SURFACE LOW FROM EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS
WILL BRING ABOUT GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND
WITH A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE ALOFT 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM
AT 10C TO 18C ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA /DEPENDENT ON THE MODEL/.
AGAIN...WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE NOT JUMPED ON THE EXTREMELY
WARM SOLUTIONS BUT IF THEY CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
MAY NEED TO DO FURTHER ADJUSTING UP ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND COULD BRING
DRIER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DAY.
THEN LOOKING TO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE
PLAINS...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...AND THUS
LEADING TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES RANGE FROM THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA FROM THE ECMWF/GEM TO THE GFS
SHOWING THE LOW CROSSING KANSAS. THESE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS LEAD TO
VERY DIFFERENT SENSIBLE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH BOTH WOULD BE COOLER
ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AGAIN...KEPT WITH THE MORE
CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND DIDN/T BUY INTO THE GFS AT THIS TIME. FOR
NOW...HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN TUESDAY NIGHT TO QUICKLY
PUSH ANY PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
RAIN/SNOW IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...YET DYNAMIC COOLING
COULD CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW.
BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN KEEPS COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
USING LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD INDICATED IS
BRINGING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS TO 15-20 PERCENT. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS STILL JUST ABOVE THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD AND WIND GUSTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH 25 MPH...SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES. THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE PARAMETERS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
FIRE WEATHER...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
855 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST STATES AND COASTAL CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 855 PM SATURDAY...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY...MAINLY DENOTED BY A
WIND SHIFT TO NW AND ABOUT A 5-10 DEG DEWPOINT DROP...ALONG A KFVX-
KDAN-KHKY LINE. THIS BOUNDARY IS PROGGED BY THE LATEST HRRR TO
CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTH OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVING LITTLE OR NO IMPACT
ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL IMPACT OUR TEMP TREND
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIMITED IF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. BOTH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WAS ABOUT 2-4 DEG TOO COLD FOR ITS
00Z PROG. THUS MAKING APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS SUGGESTS LOWS TONIGHT
BOTTOMING OUT IN MID-UPR 40S...COLDEST NORTH. WILL MAKE A FEW
SUBTLE TWEAKS TO THE TEMP GRIDS FOR OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE...REST OF
THE 1ST PERIOD FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL UNDERGO A SLOW EVOLUTION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BECOMING ELONGATED AND POSITIVELY TILTED WEST
OF THE APPALACHIANS. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY FOCUSED ALONG
AN 850MB FRONT TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING...WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
NORTH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ATOP A WEAK IN-SITU CAD AIRMASS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 1.3 INCHES AND A ROUGH MODEL
CONSENSUS GIVE 1 TO 1.25 INCHES OF QPF THROUGH 06Z...GREATEST
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD..SO ELEVATED CONVECTION DOES APPEAR TO BE AN
ISSUE...WITH ALL LOW-LEVEL BASED INSTABILITY OFFSHORE. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR RIVER FLOODING...MAINLY ALONG
THE NEUSE...IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
TEMPS ARE TRICKY AND WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL CURVE WITH BEST HEAT
ACROSS THE NORTH PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER CLOUD BASES AND
PRECIP. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH
EARLY ON...WITH MID 40S NORTHWEST AND UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTH.
THE FORECAST BECOMES EXTRA TRICKY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY
FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF A CANADIAN AIRMASS PUSHES INTO NC FROM
THE NORTH. THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH...WHILE NOT VERY STRONG
(1025MB)...WILL SETTLE TOWARD UPSTATE NY...AND ALL MODELS HAVE
TRENDED COLDER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP PROFILES BETWEEN 06 AND
12Z MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE WETBULB FREEZING LINE IS FORECAST
TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z...REACHING ROUGHLY A LING FROM DAVIDSON TO ORANGE TO VANCE
COUNTIES BY 12Z. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE QPF AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ICE
NUCLEATION IS LOST...AND PRECIP RATES FALL OFF TREMENDOUSLY. A TOP
DOWN APPROACH WOULD FAVOR RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AND
DRIZZLE BY 12Z....WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANTLY COLD ENOUGH COLD NOSE
FOR MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET DURING THE TRANSITION...WHEN
MOISTURE IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE ALOFT. WITH
MODELS SHOWING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF...ITS DIFFICULT TO
HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRUAL...BUT AN ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BECAUSE
MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME FORM OF LIGHT PRECIP...BUT
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LOWS 31-32 IN THE AREAS MENTIONED
FOR FREEZING RAIN AND 33- 40 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...
BY MONDAY MORNING...BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM FORECAST DRYING IN THE
MID-LEVELS MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HUMIDITIES ARE
LIMITED ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO NEAR -10C...WHICH MAY MAKE
ICE NUCLEATION DIFFICULT FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. IF THIS OCCURS...WHILE THE SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURE IS
BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IN
PARTICULAR...THE PRECIPITATION RATES MAY BE LIGHT. THE LATEST WRF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS...AND QPF FROM THE GFS AND THE NAM IS LIGHT
FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY. ASSUMING THE QPF IS ACCURATE...THIS IS
FORTUNATE AS IF THE PRECIPITATION RATES WERE HIGHER...WITH A GOOD
COLD NOSE IN PLACE...JUST A LITTLE MORE SATURATION COULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO THE WET BULB AND STAYING THERE...AND THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NON-
LIQUID. HOWEVER...DESPITE A CLOUDY DAY AND A NORTHEAST FLOW...IF
PRECIPITATION RATES WANE AS EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE TO
RISE EVEN A LITTLE BIT...AND LOWER PRECIPITATION RATES WOULD MEAN
MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT DRIZZLE WITH SOME PATCHY SLEET OUTSIDE
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING. FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER MONDAY WILL ONLY SHOW LIQUID
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT ALBEMARLE TO WILSON...WITH A
CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX NORTH OF THIS LINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL
GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE DAY AS A WHOLE...THOUGH EXPECT THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS OR...AGAIN...JUST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. DAYTIME HIGHS CERTAINLY WELL BELOW NORMAL...ONLY MID
TO UPPER 30S NORTH OF U.S. 64...AND NEAR 40 TO 45 FROM THERE SOUTH.
THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT IS ALSO QPF DEPENDENT...AND WHILE THE NAM
IS DRIER...THE GFS AND THE NEW ECMWF ARE NOTICEABLY WETTER...WITH AS
MUCH AS A QUARTER-INCH OF QPF OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE WEST. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...GIVEN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALOFT THIS COULD BE THE
PERIOD WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS COULD BE MOST ACUTE...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE WEST AND NORTH. THIS WOULD ALSO BE A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE TIME FOR CONCERN DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY...OR
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA ARE FORECAST A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING OR SO... AND THE BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STILL
COLD...YIELDING A LIKELIHOOD OF NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS SURFACE
WET BULB TEMPERATURES THERE CONTINUE TO BE BELOW 0C. WHILE AN
ADVISORY-TYPE SCENARIO OVERALL IS PREFERRED AT PRESENT AS THE EVENT
DRAWS NEAR...IF THERE WAS ONE PERIOD IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
WHERE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A
CATEGORY...THIS COULD BE THE ONE. PRUDENT TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS
REGARDING THIS FIFTH PERIOD FORECAST FOR NOW.
ON TUESDAY...WET BULB TEMPERATURES AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST...AND COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
RETREAT. FOR THIS FORECAST CONFINED ANY PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES TO
EARLY IN THE DAY...NOTING BY LATE MORNING ONLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. MORE CONFIDENT IN LIKELY CHANCES TO START
THE DAY...THEN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND SPEED OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
OF THE COAST...DIMINISHED POPS TO CHANCE BY LATE IN THE DAY...THOUGH
AT A MINIMUM IT SHOULD STILL BE CLOUDY AND DAMP. HIGHS AROUND 40 IN
THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...TO AROUND 50 IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST...LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF MOS MEAN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...IN GENERAL...THE GFS IS THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER. BOTH MODELS...HOWEVER...SUGGEST
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO RETREAT LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES RISE OVERNIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARMING AS
WELL. WET BULB SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY ON BOTH
MODELS REMAIN 35F OR ABOVE...ALSO SUGGESTIVE THAT LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE LIQUID. MOST
PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE LIGHT...AS THE MID LEVELS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE RATHER DRY...AND WHAT MAY BE THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER RESULT OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE. HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE
WEDNESDAY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE ECMWF AND DRIER AIR...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL MENTION
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USING A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. HAVE
TRENDED TEMPERATURES COLDER WEDNESDAY FOR THIS FORECAST ANTICIPATING
MORE CLOUDS AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...IN A
RELATIVE SENSE WARMEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID 60S WHERE ANY CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE EARLIEST.
FRONTAL TIMING REMAINS DIFFERENT ON THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH DRY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THE ECMWF
BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH MOSTLY DRY DURING THURSDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE INDIVIDUAL
MODELS...ALBEIT DRIER. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF SHOULD LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES HAVE QPF FROM THE COASTAL
PLAIN TOWARD THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON LIKELY AS THE FRONT WITH
ITS ECMWF TIMING INTERACTS WITH A LITTLE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TOWARD THE COAST. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE GENERAL STABILITY OF THE COARSE
ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND THE DRY AND STABLE GFS SOUNDINGS...
THOUGH AN ALTERNATIVE COULD BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST
OF U.S. 1 WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES
EXACTLY. THURSDAY COULD END UP BEING MODESTLY BREEZY...BUT THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS AS CURRENTLY FORECAST SHOULD KEEP ANY INCREASED
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS NEGLIGIBLE.
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE FRONT TRAILING A STRONG
SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGING ALONG
THE GULF DIMINISHES MORE ON THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF...SUCH THAT WHILE
THE ECMWF IS FAIRLY DRY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE GFS ADVECTS
MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND DEVELOPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL FORECAST
BROAD SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OUT TO THE SEVENTH DAY...BUT A
PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO IS THAT MUCH OF THE DAY IS DRY...BREEZY AND WARM
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IMMEDIATELY IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 810 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... AS THE
PASSAGE OF DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS MARKED ONLY BY A
WIND SHIFT FROM WSW TO NW AND THEN NE BY 06Z. RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE SW TOMORROW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... AND
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BETWEEN 15-18Z... WITH MVFR CIGS.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR BETWEEN 18Z-21Z.
OUTLOOK... RAIN...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE TRIAD
WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...
BASED ON THE LATEST QPF...AND CURRENT AND FORECAST RIVER LEVELS...
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING SHOULD BE ON THE NEUSE
RIVER AT SMITHFIELD. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN THE THREE-
INCH RANGE OR BETTER OVER SIX HOURS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...SO
FOR THIS FORECAST PLAN TO REFRAIN FROM ANY FLOOD WATCHES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION MAINSTEM RIVER RISES IN THE HWO...WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR FLOOD STAGES IN GENERAL...BUT IT APPEARS THE
PROBABILITY OF MINOR FLOOD STAGE BEING REACHED IS HIGHEST AT
SMITHFIELD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES...THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
MARCH 17 ARE...
KGSO...38 DEGREES FROM 2005.
KRDU...32 DEGREES FROM 1892.
KFAY...39 DEGREES FROM 2005.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...NP/SMITH
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...SEC/SMITH
HYDROLOGY...DJF
CLIMATE...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
658 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES
EARLY SATURDAY. SUNDAY A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE DECREASING AFTER SUNSET...ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO TALK ABOUT THIS. CLOUDS ALSO ON THE INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THAT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING FROM NW PA DOWN TO MFD AND
EAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FLOWING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A SWITCH
OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE IN THE SNOW BELT. THE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.
NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE IS INCREASING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WHILE TO OUR NORTHWEST A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH ITS LIMITED
MOISTURE...WAS APPROACHING. SKIES ACROSS THE AREA NOW ARE PARTLY
CLOUDY ALTHOUGH EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS THESE TWO FEATURES
CONVERGE ON THE REGION. FOLLOWED THE NAM TIMING NEAR TERM. BY
EARLY EVENING THE NAM ALONG WITH THE HRRR SHOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE
AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS BASICALLY ON A LINE FROM KERI TO
KMFD...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS. FEEL THE MAV GUIDANCE POPS ARE OVERSTATED AND WILL
GO CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE CENTRAL AND WEST
UP TO LIKELY JUST IN NWRN PA. PTYPE LIKELY RAIN THROUGH THE
EVENING MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW FOR ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 30. WINDS QUITE GUSTY AND CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS IN A FEW SPOTS BUT OVERALL ARE BELOW CRITERIA. DO EXPECT
WINDS TO BE DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. COLDEST
AIR WILL BE ACROSS NWRN PA AT AROUND -8 TO -10C. COULD BUBBLE A
LITTLE MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE SO CONTINUED A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
NWRN PA SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. DONT EXPECT IT TO
AM MOUNT TO MUCH. SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE LOW MOVING FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE
MODELS SHOW THE CLOUDS AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
REACHING NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO WITH THE CLOUDS EXTENDING FURTHER
NORTH INTO NRN OHIO. THE NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE PRECIP
ACCUMULATING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER INCH SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS KEEPS IT ALL
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL BRING A CHANCE POP INTO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A
LITTLE LEFTOVER MONDAY FAR SOUTHEAST BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE
A DRY DAY. TEMPS BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS THROUGH A
FAST UPPER LEVEL ATTEMPT AT ZONAL FLOW. EACH SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO PICK UP ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE AS THEY PASS BUT WILL BE ENOUGH OF
A NUISANCE THAT WE WILL NEED TO MENTION SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. RAIN MAINLY DURING THE DAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
A SEASONAL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH 09Z WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
AND JUST IN ITS WAKE. IT APPEARS IT WILL BE LIQUID THROUGH AROUND
05Z THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE LIGHT SNOW COULD
BE ENHANCED ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA WITH FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE. FOR
NOW WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF
KCGF TO KCAK LINE. ANY PATCHES OF MVFR ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD LIFT
BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
THE THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION HAS BEEN
ENOUGH TO HELP LIMIT MIXING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS REMAINING UNDER 30 KNOTS AT MOST LOCATIONS. THERE IS A SLIM
CHANCE THAT LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKESHORE COULD GUST TO 35 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
BECOME WESTERLY. GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY BUT
SHOULD BE UNDER 25 KNOTS.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MAINLY SOUTH IN LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON THE LAKE UNTIL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PASSES ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE EAST END
OF THE LAKE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. SINCE WE ARE IN A WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN IT IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO GET THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN TO
THE LAKE SURFACE. HOWEVER WE STILL COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 35 KNOTS BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO NEED A
GALE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ONTO THE LAKE FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
SUNDAY. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW PASSES BUT
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL EXCEED 30 KNOTS. WE
WILL THEN MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
338 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES
EARLY SATURDAY. SUNDAY A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOISTURE IS INCREASING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE TO
OUR NORTHWEST A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH ITS LIMITED MOISTURE...WAS
APPROACHING. SKIES ACROSS THE AREA NOW ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ALTHOUGH
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS THESE TWO FEATURES CONVERGE ON THE
REGION. FOLLOWED THE NAM TIMING NEAR TERM. BY EARLY EVENING THE
NAM ALONG WITH THE HRRR SHOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING
SHOWERS BASICALLY ON A LINE FROM KERI TO KMFD...INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS. FEEL THE
MAV GUIDANCE POPS ARE OVERSTATED AND WILL GO CLOSER TO THE MET
NUMBERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE CENTRAL AND WEST UP TO LIKELY JUST IN
NWRN PA. PTYPE LIKELY RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING MIXING
WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW FOR ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
AROUND 30. WINDS QUITE GUSTY AND CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN A FEW
SPOTS BUT OVERALL ARE BELOW CRITERIA. DO EXPECT WINDS TO BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. COLDEST
AIR WILL BE ACROSS NWRN PA AT AROUND -8 TO -10C. COULD BUBBLE A
LITTLE MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE SO CONTINUED A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
NWRN PA SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. DONT EXPECT IT TO
AM MOUNT TO MUCH. SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE LOW MOVING FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE
MODELS SHOW THE CLOUDS AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
REACHING NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO WITH THE CLOUDS EXTENDING FURTHER
NORTH INTO NRN OHIO. THE NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE PRECIP
ACCUMULATING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER INCH SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS KEEPS IT ALL
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL BRING A CHANCE POP INTO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A
LITTLE LEFTOVER MONDAY FAR SOUTHEAST BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE
A DRY DAY. TEMPS BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS THROUGH A
FAST UPPER LEVEL ATTEMPT AT ZONAL FLOW. EACH SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO PICK UP ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE AS THEY PASS BUT WILL BE ENOUGH OF
A NUISANCE THAT WE WILL NEED TO MENTION SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. RAIN MAINLY DURING THE DAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
A SEASONAL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH 09Z WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
AND JUST IN ITS WAKE. IT APPEARS IT WILL BE LIQUID THROUGH AROUND
05Z THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE LIGHT SNOW COULD
BE ENHANCED ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA WITH FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE. FOR
NOW WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF
KCGF TO KCAK LINE. ANY PATCHES OF MVFR ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD LIFT
BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
THE THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION HAS BEEN
ENOUGH TO HELP LIMIT MIXING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS REMAINING UNDER 30 KNOTS AT MOST LOCATIONS. THERE IS A SLIM
CHANCE THAT LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKESHORE COULD GUST TO 35 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
BECOME WESTERLY. GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY BUT
SHOULD BE UNDER 25 KNOTS.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MAINLY SOUTH IN LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON THE LAKE UNTIL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PASSES ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE EAST END
OF THE LAKE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. SINCE WE ARE IN A WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN IT IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO GET THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN TO
THE LAKE SURFACE. HOWEVER WE STILL COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 35 KNOTS BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO NEED A
GALE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ONTO THE LAKE FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
SUNDAY. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW PASSES BUT
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL EXCEED 30 KNOTS. WE
WILL THEN MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
330 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. DRY SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE SUNDAY BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. DRIER TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOP OF MIXING LAYER TOPS OUT AROUND 5000 MSL THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGER FORECAST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET...BUT STILL EXPECTED THE WIND TO BLOW THIS
EVENING. 925 MB FLOW ON RAP STILL AROUND 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.
INCREASED SPEED A BIT IN THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THIS EVENING. SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE THREAT CONTINUES TIL 23Z.
WAS ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER PUSHING THE PREFRONTAL LIGHT SHOWER
ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT. OVERALL LOWERED POPS ABOUT 10 TO 20 PERCENT
WITH THAT BAND. ONLY ORGANIZATION NEAR 18Z WAS ACTUALLY BETWEEN PAH
AND MEM NOT FURTHER NORTH. STILL THINK A FEW HUNDREDTHS COULD OCCUR
OVERNIGHT.
HAVE CLEARING FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING PREDAWN HOURS IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS...WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS STILL HOLDING OVER MOUNTAINS
AROUND 12Z BEFORE EVAPORATING.
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER...AS USUAL...IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL CONTINUES TO BE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THIS STORM...BUT MODELS ARE STARTING
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...TRENDING COLDER. NAM CONTINUES TO BE
THE WARMER SOLUN...AND BRINGS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...AND A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE
IN AGREEMENT...AND ARE COLDER SOLUNS...AND THE ECMWF AS THE
PREFERRED SOLUN FOR THIS SYSTEM ACCORDING TO WPC...WAS USED TO
CONFIGURE PRECIPITATION TYPES.
NOT ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...PW
VALUES GENERALLY RISING TO AROUND 0.6 TO 0.8 INCHES...BUT GOOD
DYNAMICS MID LEVELS AND ALOFT...ALONG WITH GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH WILL
ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
COLDER AIR WILL EXIST. WITH USING THE COLDER SOLUN...THIS HAS WIPED
OUT MOST OF THE MIXED PRECIPITATION...I.E. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE CWA. THE LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...AND FOR
PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW OR AT LEAST A MIX...PRETTY
MUCH CWA WIDE.
AT THIS POINT...AM HOLDING OFF ON A WATCH FOR 1 MORE
PERIOD...ALLOWING THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
THINGS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE MODEL VARIABILITY. BUT IT IS LOOKING
LIKE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES INCLUDING SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHERN WV...AND THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. AT THIS POINT...GENERALLY HAVE 2 TO 5
INCHES FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV
ZONES...WITH 4 TO 6 ACROSS NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. ACROSS THE CRW-HTS METRO
AREA AND SOUTH...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHERN WV...AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES IN THE
HWO FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH A COLD FRONT PROBABLY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH...A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF WV LATE MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...STRENGTHENING AS IT TRACK EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXITING EARLY THURSDAY.
THE LATEST ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DECAYING EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS
IS ABOUT 18 HOURS FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN ECMWF ENSEMBLES TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH SOME SPREAD IS
NOTICED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...SOME CONSENSUS
IN NOTICED AMONG ITS MEMBERS. PREFERRED THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND WENT
WITH THE ECMWF WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
THEREFORE...INCREASE CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHER POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY USED HPC GUIDANCE. TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM
AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK. TWEAKED DOWN TEMPS FRIDAY
DAY 7 TO COMPROMISE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
WEAKENING 06Z TO 12Z. FRONT PASSING CKB-CRW LINE BY 09Z. HAVE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG IT FOR A HOUR OR TWO...WITH SOME
CEILINGS 2 TO 4 THSD FT BKN AND VSBY ONLY DROPPING TO NEAR 5 OR 6
MILES OVER THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AT 12Z OVER MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES SHOULD EVAPORATE BY 15Z...WITH CEILING UNLIMITED AND VSBY
UNRESTRICTED AFTERWORDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN...WET SNOW...SLEET AND LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
321 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TONIGHT. DRY SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING RAIN...
SLEET...AND SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DRIER TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOP OF MIXING LAYER TOPS OUT AROUND 5000 MSL THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGER FORECAST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET...BUT STILL EXPECTED THE WIND TO BLOW THIS
EVENING. 925 MB FLOW ON RAP STILL AROUND 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.
INCREASED SPEED A BIT IN THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THIS EVENING. SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE THREAT CONTINUES TIL 23Z.
WAS ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER PUSHING THE PREFRONTAL LIGHT SHOWER
ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT. OVERALL LOWERED POPS ABOUT 10 TO 20 PERCENT
WITH THAT BAND. ONLY ORGANIZATION NEAR 18Z WAS ACTUALLY BETWEEN PAH
AND MEM NOT FURTHER NORTH. STILL THINK A FEW HUNDREDTHS COULD OCCUR
OVERNIGHT.
HAVE CLEARING FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING PREDAWN HOURS IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS...WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS STILL HOLDING OVER MOUNTAINS
AROUND 12Z BEFORE EVAPORATING.
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER...AS USUAL...IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL CONTINUES TO BE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THIS STORM...BUT MODELS ARE STARTING
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...TRENDING COLDER. NAM CONTINUES TO BE
THE WARMER SOLUN...AND BRINGS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...AND A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE
IN AGREEMENT...AND ARE COLDER SOLUNS...AND THE ECMWF AS THE
PREFERRED SOLUN FOR THIS SYSTEM ACCORDING TO WPC...WAS USED TO
CONFIGURE PRECIPITATION TYPES.
NOT ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...PW
VALUES GENERALLY RISING TO AROUND 0.6 TO 0.8 INCHES...BUT GOOD
DYNAMICS MID LEVELS AND ALOFT...ALONG WITH GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH WILL
ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
COLDER AIR WILL EXIST. WITH USING THE COLDER SOLUN...THIS HAS WIPED
OUT MOST OF THE MIXED PRECIPITATION...I.E. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE CWA. THE LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...AND FOR
PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW OR AT LEAST A MIX...PRETTY
MUCH CWA WIDE.
AT THIS POINT...AM HOLDING OFF ON A WATCH FOR 1 MORE
PERIOD...ALLOWING THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
THINGS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE MODEL VARIABILITY. BUT IT IS LOOKING
LIKE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES INCLUDING SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHERN WV...AND THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. AT THIS POINT...GENERALLY HAVE 2 TO 5
INCHES FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV
ZONES...WITH 4 TO 6 ACROSS NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. ACROSS THE CRW-HTS METRO
AREA AND SOUTH...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHERN WV...AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES IN THE
HWO FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SUN NGT INTO EASTERLY MON
BEFORE LOW PRES EXITS THE E COAST. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD SET UP
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER TROF APPROACHING
THU. TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BY MID
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
WEAKENING 06Z TO 12Z. FRONT PASSING CKB-CRW LINE BY 09Z. HAVE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG IT FOR A HOUR OR TWO...WITH SOME
CEILINGS 2 TO 4 THSD FT BKN AND VSBY ONLY DROPPING TO NEAR 5 OR 6
MILES OVER THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AT 12Z OVER MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES SHOULD EVAPORATE BY 15Z...WITH CEILING UNLIMITED AND VSBY
UNRESTRICTED AFTERWORDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN...WET SNOW...SLEET AND LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
210 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TONIGHT. DRY SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING RAIN...
SLEET...AND SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DRIER TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOP OF MIXING LAYER TOPS OUT AROUND 5000 MSL THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGER FORECAST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET...BUT STILL EXPECTED THE WIND TO BLOW THIS
EVENING. 925 MB FLOW ON RAP STILL AROUND 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.
INCREASED SPEED A BIT IN THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THIS EVENING. SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE THREAT CONTINUES TIL 23Z.
WAS ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER PUSHING THE PREFRONTAL LIGHT SHOWER
ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT. OVERALL LOWERED POPS ABOUT 10 TO 20 PERCENT
WITH THAT BAND. ONLY ORGANIZATION NEAR 18Z WAS ACTUALLY BETWEEN PAH
AND MEM NOT FURTHER NORTH. STILL THINK A FEW HUNDREDTHS COULD OCCUR
OVERNIGHT.
HAVE CLEARING FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING PREDAWN HOURS IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS...WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS STILL HOLDING OVER MOUNTAINS
AROUND 12Z BEFORE EVAPORATING.
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMAL PROFILE OVER OUR REGION...WHICH COULD
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA.
FOR NOW...WILL RUN WITH A MODEL BLEND WHICH WOULD CREATE A FAIRLY
TYPICAL SCENARIO FOR THE REGION...WITH RAIN IN THE SOUTH...AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SUN NGT INTO EASTERLY MON
BEFORE LOW PRES EXITS THE E COAST. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD SET UP
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER TROF APPROACHING
THU. TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BY MID
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
WEAKENING 06Z TO 12Z. FRONT PASSING CKB-CRW LINE BY 09Z. HAVE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG IT FOR A HOUR OR TWO...WITH SOME
CEILINGS 2 TO 4 THSD FT BKN AND VSBY ONLY DROPPING TO NEAR 5 OR 6
MILES OVER THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AT 12Z OVER MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES SHOULD EVAPORATE BY 15Z...WITH CEILING UNLIMITED AND VSBY
UNRESTRICTED AFTERWORDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN...WET SNOW...SLEET AND LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1002 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE TEXAS/ NEW MEXICO
BORDER THIS EVENING WHILE A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES NEAR
WICHITA FALLS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS STARTED
TO TEMPORARILY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING. A SQUALL LINE THAT HAD
FORMED IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN AS OF CURRENT
BUT STILL COULD CLIP OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT. A
250MB 0Z HAND ANALYSIS REVEALS SOUTHEAST TEXAS CURRENTLY IN THE
CONVERGENT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE NEW NAM 12 SHOWS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS/ NEW MEXICO CONTINUING TO
SINK SOUTHWARDS THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE JET STREAM
ALSO SINKS SOUTHWARDS MOVING SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LEFT FRONT
QUAD (WILL ALSO GET LIFT FROM PVA). 850 AND 700MB HAND ANALYSIS
REVEALS DRIER AIR TOWARDS OUR SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WRAP UP INTO THE LOW. CURRENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA REVEAL
LITTLE TO NO CAP IN PLACE. THE NAM 12 REFLECTIVITY FIELD SHOWS
PRECIPITATION FORMING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT STARTING AT 7AM
TOMORROW MORNING IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
HRRR AND RAP. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN SINK SOUTHWARDS
AND HANG UP ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD LIFT... MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE HAVE RAISED POPS.
VISIBILITIES NEAR THE COAST HAVE VARIED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
LOCATIONS SEEING BELOW 1SM AT TIMES. THIS IS LIKELY FROM PATCHY
SEA FOG. NOT UNTIL THE SURFACE FRONT COMES THROUGH TOMORROW WILL
THE FOG FINALLY SCOUR OUT. 23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. LIFR CONDS EXPECTED AREAWIDE. COULD GET SOME SEA FOG NEAR
KGLS OVERNIGHT AS WELL. MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BUT HAVE SOME CONCERN THE SQUALL LINE OVER NORTH TEXAS
COULD CLIP KUTS AROUND 05Z. THE RAP IS AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY MORNING. THE RAP
LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE BUT GETS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 4 KM WRF AND
HRRR. HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES AND VCTS FOR HOU
SOUTHWARD. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 59 63 36 61 43 / 60 20 10 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 64 68 40 59 45 / 50 50 10 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 62 67 44 57 53 / 30 50 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
807 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. LIFR CONDS EXPECTED AREAWIDE. COULD GET SOME SEA FOG NEAR
KGLS OVERNIGHT AS WELL. MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BUT HAVE SOME CONCERN THE SQUALL LINE OVER NORTH TEXAS
COULD CLIP KUTS AROUND 05Z. THE RAP IS AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY MORNING. THE RAP
LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE BUT GETS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 4 KM WRF AND
HRRR. HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES AND VCTS FOR HOU
SOUTHWARD. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 59 63 36 61 43 / 60 20 10 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 64 69 40 59 45 / 40 20 10 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 62 67 44 57 53 / 20 20 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1131 AM PDT Fri Mar 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will track across the inland Northwest today and
result in rain...mountain snow...breezy winds and the possibility
of isolated thunderstorms. High pressure and drier weather returns
tonight but is short lives as another weather disturbance pushes a
threat of precipitation into the Cascades late Saturday into
Sunday, then across the remainder of the Inland Northwest later
Sunday afternoon into Monday. Drier weather returns Tuesday
through Thursday, but another threat of showers will be possible late
in the week. Temperatures will remain above seasonal norms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.Rest of Today...Band of stratiform precipitation associated
occluded front continues to track steadily eastward through the
region. As of 11am...the back edge stretched from Metaline Falls
to Post Falls and southwest toward Walla Walla. Precipitation will
continue ahead of this front for several more hours over the Idaho
Panhandle and then will exit the region. That`s not the end of the
precipitation though as the upper level trough and pool of cold
air aloft shifts into the heart of the Inland NW. Right now the
trough was just crossing the Cascade Crest...bringing a narrow
band of showers to the lee valleys of the Cascades. This narrow
band will likely be it for locations such as Wenatchee...
Waterville...and possibly Moses Lake and Omak. There was also a
well-defined Puget Sound Convergence Zone which looks like it
could impact the Stevens Pass region for a while this afternoon.
Once the upper level trough shifts into the eastern third of
Washington and the Idaho Panhandle later this afternoon...we will
likely see a rapid blossoming of showers. Thunder still looks like
a distinct possibility as the HRRR model has consistently shown
some small convective cells developing over the eastern Columbia
Basin...Palouse...Spokane area and into the Idaho Panhandle. We
have already seen one strike west of the Cascades...so this make
the thunder threat seem more plausible. Any storms which form will
likely produce gusty winds to 40-45 mph and possibly some small
hail. The threat will rapidly wane as the upper level trough moves
east of our forecast area early this evening. Precipitation
amounts could be moderate to locally heavy over the Idaho
Panhandle and some snow will be possible over the higher passes
including Lookout Pass.
Even without thunderstorms we expect to see increasing winds
associated with the passing front. Gusts of 30-40 mph are expected
across much of eastern Washington and extreme western portions of
the Idaho Panhandle. The speeds should persist through early
evening. fx
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Eastward moving front will provide ocnl rain and
MVFR/IFR cigs through 21z or so for GEG SFF COE PUW with slightly
better conditions at LWS. Once this front exits conditions should
improve steadily...however an unstable air mass coupled with an
upper level shortwave will likely trigger numerous showers and
possibly a thunderstorm. Brief MVFR cigs could be experienced at
any of the above mentioned airports as well as gusty winds
approaching 40kts if a thunderstorm happens to hit. Conditions
should improve rapidly after 02z as the shortwave exits. VFR
conditions should persist through the remainder of the period. A
weak disturbance late in the forecast period will bring another
round of lowering cigs. For MWH and EAT...the only weather
expected should occur between now and 21z as the shortwave moves
through. Brief showers are possible at both sites...with clearing
skies thereafter and gusty west winds. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 32 51 37 56 38 / 100 20 10 0 30 60
Coeur d`Alene 49 31 50 36 54 38 / 100 50 10 10 30 60
Pullman 51 34 53 39 58 39 / 90 30 0 0 10 60
Lewiston 57 37 60 41 64 43 / 70 20 0 0 10 60
Colville 52 30 54 34 56 34 / 100 20 20 20 50 60
Sandpoint 44 30 48 34 50 35 / 100 60 10 20 50 60
Kellogg 42 31 48 35 51 37 / 100 70 10 10 40 60
Moses Lake 61 34 58 39 63 39 / 60 10 10 10 10 40
Wenatchee 57 34 56 37 59 35 / 50 10 10 20 20 40
Omak 55 31 54 33 57 32 / 50 10 20 20 40 50
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE MOVING TO THE EAST OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIP REPORTS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN FAR AND FEW
BETWEEN SO FAR TODAY...WITH ONLY SOME SITES IN VILAS COUNTY AND MTW
REPORTING ANY PRECIP. SUSPECT SOME PRECIP REACHED THE GROUND OVER
FAR NE WISCONSIN TOO BASED ON RADAR RETURNS. 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING
SHOWED A DRY WEDGE BELOW 700MB...AND SUSPECT THIS DRY AIR IS
PREVENTING MID-LEVEL RETURNS FROM REACHING THE GROUND AT MOST
LOCATIONS. NOT MANY REPORTS OF SNOW UPSTREAM EITHER...ONLY A FEW
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION IS OCCURRING BEHIND
A COOL FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THE COMBO OF
CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR HAS HALTED THE HEATING CURVE OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUDS/TEMPS.
TONIGHT...BEHIND A COMPACT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING WILL
HAVE DEPARTED BY THIS TIME...BUT FLOW WILL BE TURNING TO THE NNW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE HANGING BACK OVER FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT LACK OF PRECIP ON UPSTREAM
OBS SUPPORTS BACKING OFF ON PRECIP AMOUNTS AND POPS SOMEWHAT. WILL
ONLY SHOW A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTHERN
VILAS COUNTY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THINK
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH. MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE TOO QUICK THOUGH SINCE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING...SO
WILL NOT SHOW CLEARING SKIES OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
WINDS...SIDED WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE MID-TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH.
SATURDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY MORNING. DIGGING SHORTWAVE OVER
THE PLAINS AND RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE JET WILL CREATE THE FORCING
FOR A BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WHICH PUSHES INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL
WHICH TRACKS THE BAND OF SNOW INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE REST OF
THE MODELS ARE FARTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WILL SIDE
WITH THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LEFT OVER ON PROGGED SOUNDINGS...WHICH TURNS INTO A CU FIELD WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. SO THINKING ANY CLEARING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WILL PARTIALLY FILL BACK IN BY LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TURNING TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH COULD GENERATE A FEW
FLURRIES OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL HAVE A MENTION LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD CONDITIONS
FOR MID MARCH WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND 850MB WARM ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST.
THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED THIS MORNING
AS THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND WARMER THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN. THE
CANADIAN MODEL IS THE COLDEST SOLUTION WHILE THE THE GFS IS IN THE
MIDDLE. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO
NOTED. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DID SHOW A LARGE VARIABLE IN THE
POSSIBLE TRACK OF THE STORM. WOULD LIKE TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF
MODEL FOR THIS PACKAGE DUE TO ITS BETTER PERFORMANCE IN THE LATER
PERIODS...BUT THIS MODEL IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND SLOW THAN
PREVIOUS RUN. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE SINCE
THERE ARE SEVERAL MORE DAYS UNTIL THE EVENT AND LATER MODELS CAN
CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
COLDER AIR WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST BEHIND A DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITHIN THE COLDER
AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS RESIDE OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THEY WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND STICKING AROUND FOR MUCH OF THIS EVENING. SCT LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON TURNING TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING...WILL
ACCOMPANY THE CLOUDS OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THE RHI TAF THOUGH. CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD TURN
CIGS TO VFR OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THEN CLOUDS WILL
BUILD AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY LATE IN THE MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1217 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY/TONIGHT IS ON THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS THAT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION.
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE LOW 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE WINDS WENT CALM AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING LET TEMPERATURES SLIP TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS A COLD FRONT THAT
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF IT THROUGH EASTERN MINNESOTA ON INTO WESTERN
IOWA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS DRAPED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW
AND RUNS EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. FURTHER
ALOFT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS VIA 14.07Z RAP ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS
PROVIDING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF IT.
FOR TODAY...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNALS THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FIRST COLD
FRONT PASSAGE AND AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WITH THIS PASSING WAVE AND NOTHING ON REGIONAL RADARS. THE
14.07Z RAP DOES SHOW AN INCREASING TREND IN RH THROUGH THE DAY
THROUGH THE HRRR HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH ANY 1KM AGL REFLECTIVITY
RETURNS. CONSIDERED ADDING IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR A RAIN
SHOWER...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO TOSS
IT IN THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THE MOST AS THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH A
STRATUS DECK LIKELY ACCOMPANYING IT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON SNOW
CHANCES...PARTICULARLY FOR TUESDAY WHEN A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION COMES IN MAINLY AS SNOW ALONG A
FRONTOGENETIC BAND THAT LOOKS LIKE IT FORMS SATURDAY MORNING AND
DRIFTS SOUTH INTO SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE UPPED THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THIS PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST IOWA THOUGH
THE 14.00Z ECMWF SHOOTS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WOULD KEEP THINGS
DRY FOR THE MOST PART. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE NOT GONE UP TO
LIKELIES YET. SOME QUESTIONS IN WHETHER A WARM LAYER WILL BE
PRESENT TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN OR A MIX. THE
14.00Z NAM SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A WARM LAYER TO +3C AROUND 875MB
WHILE THE 14.00Z KEEP THE THERMAL PROFILE UNDER 0C. THIS COULD
KEEP SNOW TOTALS DOWN A BIT...PARTICULARLY IF THE NAM WARM LAYER
OCCURS. 14.03Z SREF PLUMES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALSO ADD SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MEAN BEING AROUND 1-2 INCHES THOUGH A FEW
MEMBERS GO OFF THE CHARTS DUE TO THE FGEN FORCING. HAVE GONE THE
CONSERVATIVE ROUTE AND KEPT THE SNOW TOTALS TO 2 INCHES OR LESS
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST IOWA.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
AHEAD A MORE POTENT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE 14.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSING
OFF/NEGATIVELY TITLED MID LEVEL TROUGH FORMING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PROPAGATING
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THIS TROUGH/LOW WITH THE 14.00Z ECMWF
BEING FURTHER NORTH AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE GFS. WITH THE MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO CHICAGO...THE 14.00Z
GFS SOLUTION HAS THE MAIN SNOW BAND GOING FROM SIOUX FALLS SD
TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES. MEANWHILE...THE 14.00Z ECMWF TAKES THE
SURFACE LOW MORE ON A WEST TO EAST PATH BEFORE OCCLUDING IT IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN AND PUTS ITS MAIN SNOW BAND FROM SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SOME HEAVY SNOW LOOKS
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY...SO WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS POTENT SYSTEM AS WE GET CLOSER TO IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
FIRST FRONT IS THROUGH THE REGION WITH AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST
WIND. SEVERAL GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND OPEN AREAS...INCLUDING KRST. SECONDARY COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ENHANCE THE GUSTINESS FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS JUST BEFORE SUNSET...WHEN DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW
SPEEDS TO SUBSIDE. UPSTREAM ACROSS MN THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES REPORTED. SOME OF THAT COULD SURVIVE TO
REACH KRST...BUT IF IT DOES IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND VERY
BRIEF...NARY WORTH A MENTION. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO FOCUS CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM WNW- ESE.
NAM/CANADIAN A BIT MORE ROBUST...AND THUS FASTER/FURTHER NORTH
COULD IMPACT THE TAF LOCATIONS AFTER 15Z SAT. GFS/ECMWF A BIT
WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH/SLOWER KEEPING MUCH OF THE FOCUS JUST
SOUTH OF THE TAF LOCATIONS. THIS POTENTIAL SNOW PERIOD IS ON THE
EDGE OF THE FORECAST. FOR NOW JUST ADDED LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD AND LATER ISSUANCES SHOULD BE ABLE TO ADD MORE DETAIL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...MW
18Z TAF ISSUANCE/FORECAST DISCUSSION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
342 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY/TONIGHT IS ON THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS THAT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION.
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE LOW 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE WINDS WENT CALM AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING LET TEMPERATURES SLIP TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW JUST WEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS A COLD FRONT THAT
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF IT THROUGH EASTERN MINNESOTA ON INTO WESTERN
IOWA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS DRAPED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW
AND RUNS EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. FURTHER
ALOFT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS VIA 14.07Z RAP ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS
PROVIDING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF IT.
FOR TODAY...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNALS THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FIRST COLD
FRONT PASSAGE AND AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WITH THIS PASSING WAVE AND NOTHING ON REGIONAL RADARS. THE
14.07Z RAP DOES SHOW AN INCREASING TREND IN RH THROUGH THE DAY
THROUGH THE HRRR HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH ANY 1KM AGL REFLECTIVITY
RETURNS. CONSIDERED ADDING IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR A RAIN
SHOWER...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO TOSS
IT IN THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THE MOST AS THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH A
STRATUS DECK LIKELY ACCOMPANYING IT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON SNOW
CHANCES...PARTICULARLY FOR TUESDAY WHEN A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION COMES IN MAINLY AS SNOW ALONG A
FRONTOGENETIC BAND THAT LOOKS LIKE IT FORMS SATURDAY MORNING AND
DRIFTS SOUTH INTO SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE UPPED THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THIS PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST IOWA THOUGH
THE 14.00Z ECMWF SHOOTS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WOULD KEEP THINGS
DRY FOR THE MOST PART. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE NOT GONE UP TO
LIKELIES YET. SOME QUESTIONS IN WHETHER A WARM LAYER WILL BE
PRESENT TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN OR A MIX. THE
14.00Z NAM SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A WARM LAYER TO +3C AROUND 875MB
WHILE THE 14.00Z KEEP THE THERMAL PROFILE UNDER 0C. THIS COULD
KEEP SNOW TOTALS DOWN A BIT...PARTICULARLY IF THE NAM WARM LAYER
OCCURS. 14.03Z SREF PLUMES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALSO ADD SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MEAN BEING AROUND 1-2 INCHES THOUGH A FEW
MEMBERS GO OFF THE CHARTS DUE TO THE FGEN FORCING. HAVE GONE THE
CONSERVATIVE ROUTE AND KEPT THE SNOW TOTALS TO 2 INCHES OR LESS
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST IOWA.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
AHEAD A MORE POTENT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE 14.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSING
OFF/NEGATIVELY TITLED MID LEVEL TROUGH FORMING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PROPAGATING
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THIS TROUGH/LOW WITH THE 14.00Z ECMWF
BEING FURTHER NORTH AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE GFS. WITH THE MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO CHICAGO...THE 14.00Z GFS
SOLUTION HAS THE MAIN SNOW BAND GOING FROM SIOUX FALLS SD TOWARD
THE TWIN CITIES. MEANWHILE...THE 14.00Z ECMWF TAKES THE SURFACE
LOW MORE ON A WEST TO EAST PATH BEFORE OCCLUDING IT IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN AND PUTS ITS MAIN SNOW BAND FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SOME HEAVY SNOW LOOKS LIKELY WITH
THIS STORM AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
TRENDS WITH THIS POTENT SYSTEM AS WE GET CLOSER TO IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014
BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 45-50 KT ARE PRESENT AT 1500-2000 FT
ABOVE THE GROUND...WHILE SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY AT 10-15
KT...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO END BY 09Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES.
PLENTIFUL DRY AIR AROUND THE FRONT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR. LOOK
FR WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IN NORTH DAKOTA LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 13-16Z. EXPECT THE NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT IN ITS WAKE. IN ADDITION...SOME
STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD INVADE THE TAF SITES. HARD TO SAY IF CEILINGS
WILL BE MVFR OR VFR AT THIS POINT. UPSTREAM THEY REMAIN MOSTLY
VFR WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MVFR...SO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THAT
IDEA IN THE TAFS WITH SCT MVFR AND A BKN VFR CEILING. SOME SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE TOO FROM THESE CLOUDS. PLAN ON THE CLOUDS
TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN SCATTER/CLEAR IN THE
EVENING AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN. THE GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1223 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SOME TSRA ONGOING ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST SITES INTO THE DAYLIGHT HRS.
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS COULD BE SEEN. THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER DAWN AT CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SRN SITES...BUT FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE. PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. BREEZY NW AND
NORTH WINDS WILL BE SEEN AS WELL...WITH SOME SITES SEEING GUSTS
OVER 30 KTS. RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS THE NRN SITES FOR SUN
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. FURTHER SOUTH...THE
TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HRS...BUT ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AREA WIDE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014/
UPDATE...
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING AS FORECAST LOOKS
IN REASONABLY GOOD SHAPE. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED BY A
DEGREE HERE AND THERE TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO...POPS WERE
RAISED TO ONE HUNDRED PERCENT AS RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD JUST ABOUT
THE ENTIRE CWA. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT IN TACT.
LOW CENTER VISIBLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY AT THIS TIME. QUICK PEEK AT THE NEW MODELS SHOW THE LOW
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...INTENSIFYING AS IT
DOES. NEW NAM SOLUTION KEEPS THE RAIN GOING THROUGH MID MORNING
WHILE OLD GFS/LATEST HRRR DRY SLOTS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
A LITTLE QUICKER. STATUS QUO SEEMS TO BE PRUDENT UNTIL NEW MODEL
DATA ARRIVES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL ALLOW FOR TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO DIVE DEEP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. 1ST WAVE IS USHERING A BROAD SWATH OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT. A SURFACE
LOW WILL FORM IN RESPONSE ACROSS TX...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AR...WITH GULF MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SW AR...AND OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO WESTERN AR.
MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN...DIVING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TX. THIS DEEPER SYSTEM WILL
INGEST THE FIRST WAVE AS THE AXES BECOME ALIGNED...AND
BROAD...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DEVELOPS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GET WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM ALOFT...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT A DRY SLOT WILL FORM BY
SUNDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
LOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LESSEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR.
THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY ON SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS AS IT SWEEPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL AR. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE
STATE OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY AND EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
PRECIP COMING TO AN END.
HEAVY RAIN: GIVEN THE TWO MOISTURE SOURCES...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND PACIFIC...HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHWEST AR TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONG ASCENT AND TRAINING...THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY. LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 WILL BE
NOTED FURTHER SOUTH. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RAINFALL DEFICIT OF
LATE...EXPECT PROBLEMS TO REMAIN ISOLATED.
THUNDERSTORMS: GIVEN THE AMPLE ENERGY WITH THESE WAVES THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THE SHOWERS.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE MORE ELEVATED ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE
STATE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANYTHING SURFACE BASED ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH AND WEST THIS EVENING. AS THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS
AND MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS AND BEST DYNAMICS/WIND
SHEAR WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS IS
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING REDUCING THE
SEVERE THREAT.
WINTER WEATHER: COLD AIR WILL GET WRAPPED INTO THE STORM SYSTEM
ALOFT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH. A
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN...TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...TO SNOW WILL OCCUR A
BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE WINTER WEATHER WILL LIKELY
BEGIN IN IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 3
INCHES. AGAIN THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN/NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. SNOW WILL MIX IN ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS LATER ON
SUNDAY...WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
HIGH WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. SUSTAIN WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH WILL HAPPEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A COUPLE OF FRONTS...BUT ASSOCIATED STORM SYSTEMS WILL GO
WELL TO THE NORTH WITH NOT MUCH ENERGY TO HELP TRIGGER
PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WILL TEND TO BE LIMITED ANYWAY.
THE FIRST FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD GO THROUGH
DRY. THE LATTER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER...SO ADDED SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 24 46 34 65 / 50 10 0 10
CAMDEN AR 31 54 38 72 / 30 10 0 10
HARRISON AR 18 47 36 63 / 30 10 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 29 53 38 69 / 40 10 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 29 52 37 69 / 40 10 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 31 51 37 69 / 30 10 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 28 54 37 69 / 30 10 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 20 46 35 64 / 40 10 0 10
NEWPORT AR 25 45 34 65 / 50 10 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 30 50 37 69 / 40 10 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 26 53 35 68 / 40 10 0 10
SEARCY AR 27 48 34 66 / 50 10 0 10
STUTTGART AR 29 49 37 68 / 50 10 0 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&
$$
AVIATION...62
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
442 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...
...RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...
TODAY...
A HI AMP MID/UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROF SPANNING THE PLAINS STATES WILL
ALLOW A STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE ARKLATEX TO DEEPEN...WHILE A ZONAL
H30-H20 JET E OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY PULLS THE SYSTEM STEADILY EWD.
AS IT DOES...IT WILL INTERACT WITH A HI PRES RIDGE DRAPED OVER THE
WRN ATLC/ERN GOMEX AND TIGHTEN THE LCL PGRAD. GEOSTROPHIC APPROX
TABLES SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS ARND 25KTS. LAKE
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES BTWN 10AM AND 8PM.
THE FRESHENING SRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
THAT WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE L/M80S...ABOUT 5F ABV AVG. LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES
H100-H85 MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 70-80PCT. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM H85-H70
LAPSE RATES RUNNING BLO 4.0C/KM SUGGEST THE MID LVL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL NOT BREAK THRU THE MAX HEATING PD. EVENING SOUNDINGS
MEASURED PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" ACRS THE PENINSULA...BUT
SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR LINGERS ABV H85. AIRMASS REMAINS TOO DRY/STABLE
TO SUPPORT PRECIP TODAY...FCST WILL REMAIN DRY THRU SUNSET.
TONIGHT...
THE ATLC HI PRES RIDGE WILL RETREAT EWD AS THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH...BUT WILL NOT GIVE GROUND EASILY. THE SHORT
WAVE TROF SUPPORTING THE STORM SYSTEM HAS A POSITIVE TILT WHILE THE
H30-H20 WIND FIELD BEHIND IT IS MAXING OUT ARND 80KTS. WITHOUT A
STRONGER DIGGING JET...THE SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE WILL NOT BE ABLE
UNDERGO THE POSITIVE-TO-NEGATIVE SHIFT THAT WOULD ALLOW THE STORM
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY ENOUGH TO COLLAPSE THE WRN FLANK OF THE ATLC
RIDGE AND ALLOW A RAPID FROPA THRU CENTRAL FL.
A PRE FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND DRIVEN BY STRONG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE
OVER A STRENGTHENING H85 WIND FIELD SHOULD APPROACH THE I-4 CORRIDOR
AFT MIDNIGHT AND PUSH S OF THE CORRIDOR BY EARLY MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN 40-50 POPS FROM N BREVARD/NW OSCEOLA NORTHWARD. PRECIP BAND
WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SMALL POPS TO COUNTIES
FROM OKEECHOBEE/S BREVARD SWD...WHICH IS ROUGHLY CONSISTENT WITH MAV
MOS GUIDANCE. STEADY SRLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
MIN TEMPS 10-15F ABV AVG...M/U60S OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT NEAR
70F ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.
MON/MON NIGHT...A POTENT POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW TO
DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF. STRONG SW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL OVERLAY AN INCREASING 925-850 MB FLOW OF 40-45 KNOTS
IN RESPONSE TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL PULL VERY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (AROUND 2 INCHES) ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA.
TEMPS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO WARM SLIGHTLY TO -10C AT 500 MB WHICH
IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WARM
MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN SOME AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BUT THERE WILL BE PROBABLY BE
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS INHIBITING SFC HEATING.
BASED ON CURRENT TIMING...EXPECT A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH TO PUSH
ONSHORE THE FL WEST COAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY
ACCOMPANIED BY A SQUALL LINE. THIS LINE SHOULD PUSH INTO EAST
CENTRAL FL DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. WE COULD SEE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH TYPICALLY ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE
TORNADOES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE CONVECTIVE BAND
WILL ONLY SLOW TRAVERSE THE AREA MON NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO
SOME TRAINING OF CELLS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS. AT THIS
TIME...WIDESPREAD ONE HALF /0.50/ TO TO ONE /1.0/ INCH RAINS CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF EC FL WHICH WOULD BE QUITE BENEFICIAL.
BUT SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY GET TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING...UP TO 3
INCHES WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED TEMPORARY FLOODING.
TUE-SAT...00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOW EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS TUE MORNING SO HAVE RAISED
POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT BUT EXPECT THE RAIN TO PUSH QUICKLY OFFSHORE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES SEAWARD AND MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT. HOWEVER...SKIES DONT LOOK TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY
DUE TO QUICK RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW WHICH TRAPS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TRANQUIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THEN OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA
COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S COAST AND
MID 80S INLAND. THE BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH SO RAIN CHANCES LOOK QUITE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 17/04Z...VFR ALL SITES. AFT 16/14Z...S/SE SFC WND G23-28KTS ALL
SITES CONTG THRU 17/00Z...CIGS AOA FL120 N OF KISM-KTIX. BTWN
17/04Z-17/06Z...MVFR CIGS DVLPG N OF KISM-KTIX WITH SLGT CHC SHRAS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...STORM SYSTEM DVLPG OVER THE ARKLATEX/WRN GOMEX WILL
INTERACT WITH A HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FM THE W ATLC TO THE ERN
GOMEX. THE LCL PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN AS THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT...
ALLOWING SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS TO FRESHEN OUT OF THE S/SE...BCMG A
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BY MID AFTN. WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20KT
SCA THRESHOLD OVER MOST OF THE LCL ATLC BY MIDDAY...CONTG THRU
DAYBREAK MON WHILE SLOWLY VEERING TO S/SW OVERNIGHT.
THE SE-SW WIND FIELD WILL PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING MUCH ABV 7FT
DUE TO THE LIMITED FETCH LENGTHS FROM BOTH FLOW REGIMES (S/SE WINDS
WILL HAVE THE BAHAMA SHADOW...S/SW WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE).
HOWEVER...THE LIMITED FETCH LENGTH ALSO MEANS THE SEAS WILL BE
COMPRISED MAINLY OF LCL WIND WAVES WITH DOMINANT PDS AOB 6SEC. THE
S/SE WINDS ALSO WILL GENERATE ROUGH CONDITIONS OVER THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY TODAY AS THEY WILL BE BLOWING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE E FL
COAST.
WILL HOIST AN SCA FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING AT 14Z...CONTG THRU EARLY
MON MORNING. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES AS
WELL.
MON...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD GENERATE BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH SPEEDS AROUND
20 KNOTS OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG
STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
NIGHTTIME.
TUE-THU...THE COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD LINGER OVER THE WATERS TUE MORNING. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY STILL BE 20 KNOTS THEN A NORTH SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO OCCUR. BY WED THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO
BE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING NORTH
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE CAROLINA COAST THU AND BUMP UP NORTHEAST
FLOW TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 82 68 79 66 / 10 50 80 80
MCO 85 66 83 67 / 10 50 80 80
MLB 82 70 84 69 / 0 30 60 70
VRB 81 70 85 73 / 0 20 50 70
LEE 83 67 80 65 / 10 50 80 80
SFB 84 67 82 67 / 10 50 80 80
ORL 84 67 82 67 / 10 50 80 80
FPR 81 71 85 73 / 0 20 50 70
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA 10 AM EDT
TO 8 PM EDT.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....KELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
136 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014/
UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH REGIONAL RADAR BEGINNING
TO BECOME ACTIVE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH A BAND OF RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT ZONE. AREA IS ALSO
LIKELY BEING AIDED BY APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH IS ACTING TO CREATE A ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THIS AREA EXPANDING QUICKLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH CATEGORICAL POPS OVER NORTH GEORGIA BY 12Z SUNDAY. IN
VICINITY OF WARM FRONT DURING THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED WITH HELICITY VALUES AT 0-1KM IN THE 400-500
M2/S2 RANGE. INSTABILITY HOWEVER...EVEN MUCAPE VALUES...ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEARLY NON EXISTENT WITH BETTER SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY LAGGING FAR BEHIND THIS INITIAL SHEAR. STILL COULD SEE
SOME GOOD ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE GIVEN STRONG ISENTROPIC FLOW
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK TIMING OF BEST INSTABILITY TO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN THEN...INSTABILITY WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY
COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE WEST AS WEDGE BUILDS IN. AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE COULD STILL SEE SOME SURFACE BASED
ACTIVITY PER LATEST HRRR AND WRF WHICH SHOWS BOWING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.
DEESE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE
STATE. WEDGE FRONT BACKS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND HOLDS ITS
GROUND THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AGAINST THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SPREADS OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. INSTABILITY INCREASES
EARLY SUNDAY AND THUNDER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. I HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEDGE AS SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD
MAKE IT ONTO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIMITED AS THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LOW/MID-LEVEL
SHEAR REMAIN A BIT OUT OF SYNC AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS ARE DOMINATED IN THE LOWEST LEVELS BY THE WEDGE...BUT
CANNOT BE DISMISSED ENTIRELY AS AMPLE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
BETTER PRECIPITATION BEGINS PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST
OF THE STATE POPS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH.
QPF TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY COME OUT AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF...AND
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...NO WIDESPREAD
HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
20
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUIDANCE AGREES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE
STILL ADVECTING NEWD ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DISCREPANCIES EXIST
IN THE STRENGTH OF THE CAD WEDGE AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH/MOISTURE. 12Z NAM IS COOLER/STRONGER WEDGE BUT WARMER BLEND
OF GUIDANCE LOOKS MOST REASONABLE WITH MONDAY NIGHT LOWS IN UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S. HAVE OVERALL TRENDED TEMPS DOWN A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST PER LATEST BLEND THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED POPS ALONG WITH PROGGED SLUG OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST. THIS LESS
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS CARRIED BY THE NAM AND 12Z ECMWF AND SEEMS
MORE LIKELY THAN THE QUICKER GFS. OTHERWISE HAVE LEFT REST OF
FORECAST PERIOD ALONE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH GUIDANCE VARIATION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014/
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH SHOWING AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE DRIVING
UPPER DISTURBANCE DOES NOT PUSH EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY...
SO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER ON
TUESDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES ON MONDAY... MODELS SHOW A
COOL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
PROVIDING A STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS SUGGEST THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA MONDAY-TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS. HOWEVER... IF THE WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO ADVANCE INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON... ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED WITH LATER FORECAST.
OTHERWISE... LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BY MID WEEK... WITH THE
GFS THE FASTEST AND SHOWING A FROPA ON WEDNESDAY... WHILE THE
ECMWF SHOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. BOTH ARE FAIRLY DRY WITH
THIS SYSTEM... SO WILL ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTH GA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NOW. MODELS SHOW DRY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
39
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LOW VFR CIGS TO START THE PERIOD WITH -SHRA BEGINNING TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR BY 09Z AND IFR BY 15Z
EXCEPT MCN AND CSG. CSG LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY MVFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT MCN SHOULD DROP TO IFR AFTER 00Z. WIDESPREAD SHRA
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR VSBY. POSSIBILITY
OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON 18-00Z ESPECIALLY CSG AND MCN...CONFIDENCE
NOT AS HIGH FOR METRO TAFS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR LIFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAINLY ON THE E SIDE FOR
NORTHERN TAFS BUT FOR CSG/MCN EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW AROUND
NOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON OCCURRENCE OF MOST EVENTS...MEDIUM ON TIMING.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 56 45 48 38 / 100 80 70 60
ATLANTA 60 47 51 38 / 100 70 60 40
BLAIRSVILLE 52 44 49 38 / 100 70 50 40
CARTERSVILLE 60 48 53 39 / 100 60 60 30
COLUMBUS 66 56 63 45 / 90 70 70 40
GAINESVILLE 54 43 46 37 / 100 70 60 40
MACON 66 54 58 44 / 90 80 70 60
ROME 61 49 54 40 / 100 60 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 63 49 53 41 / 100 70 70 40
VIDALIA 72 58 59 45 / 80 80 90 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...TDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
448 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
322 AM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER MAINLY AROUND TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH A TYPICAL SPRING SEE SAW PATTERN OF WARMER PERIODS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER PERIODS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
A DECENT AREA OF SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS THAT EXISTS WITHIN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RADAR
RETURNS SUGGEST THAT THIS BAND OF SNOW IS FAIRLY INTENSE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OF THIS WRITING. VISIBILITIES UNDER
THIS BAND OF SNOW RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2 MILES. HOWEVER...SOME OF
THE MORE INTENSE SNOW COULD BE RESULTING IN SOME ISOLATED BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB MILE VISIBILITIES. OVERALL...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH
THE THINKING OF THIS SNOW. THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SAG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LIKELY ENDING ACROSS MY SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SO...ALTHOUGH THE SNOW IS
FALLING AT A DECENT RATE...IT APPEARS THAT OVERALL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
IN ADDITION TO THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW...THERE IS ACTUALLY ALSO SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. THE COLD AIRMASS SPILLING ACROSS THE LAKE IS
PRODUCING SOME MODEST LAKE INDUCED EL`S UP AROUND 4,000 FEET
AGL...PER MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE A BIG
DEAL...THERE MAY BE A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT. I ADDED A FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH
TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A COLD CANADIAN HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ACROSS THE
REGION...AND AS SUCH...THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD RAW DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. I HAVE REMAINED A BIT HIGHER THAN MOST GUIDANCE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT LOCAL
CLIMATOLOGY FOR 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES
COULD BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT IT WILL STILL BE A COLD DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...SETTING UP LIGHTER WINDS...AND LIKELY A VERY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. SOME SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES
ARE EVEN POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS.
A WARMER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AGAIN LATER IN
THE DAY MONDAY. SO TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A REBOUND DURING THE
DAY. HOWEVER...THE BETTER WARMTH WILL NOT SET UP UNTIL TUESDAY. AN
ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SETTING UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE
MUCH WARMER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO TUESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID
WEEK. HOWEVER...OVERALL...PREFER THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY WARM DAY
FOR MOST OF THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO BE
WELL INTO THE 50S...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE LAKE. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS AREAS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...LIKELY IN THE LOWER 40S...DUE TO AN EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT OFF THE LAKE.
THE STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS TIMING AND TRACK WOULD FAVOR THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A VERY MILD NIGHT...POTENTIALLY EVEN
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...THE THREAT
FOR ANY SNOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK APPEARS THAT IT COULD PRODUCE AND DRIVE YET
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEK
AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE EVEN LARGER DISCREPANCIES WITH
AMONGST THE FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR WARMER
WEATHER INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR DROPS BACK
ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY/MID MORNING
* MODERATELY STRONG/GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATE 09Z...
EXTENSIVE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS AT FL020-025 SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THERMODYNAMICALLY IT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS...BUT HI
RES MODELS SUGGEST THE FOCUS COULD SHIFT FARTHER NORTH INTO SE WI
AND WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ITS POSSIBLE CIGS COULD SCATTER
OUT SOME. OVERALL LOW CONFIDNECE IN TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT FROM
MVFR.
IZZI
UPDATED 06Z...
BAND OF SNOW THAT IS MAINLY WEST OF CHICAGO...WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR BRIEF
LIGHT SNOW AT THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE TAF CYCLE...BUT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE AND HAVE
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MVFR CIGS...POSSIBLY LAKE INDUCED...SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE CONDITIONS TREND VFR. STRONG/GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLY NEARING 30KT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTINESS AND THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING SCATTERING OUT OF LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LGT
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
251 AM CDT
FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THIS
MORNING OVER THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE LAKE SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE INCHES CLOSER TO
REGION AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY FRESHEN UP MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW. FAIRLY
STRONG LOW AND FORMIDABLE SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT COULD ALLOW
FOR A PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN A
BIT LATE IN THE WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
00Z models continue to trend further south with surface low
pressure and associated qpf fields over southern areas today.
Therefore continue to lower pops and qpf/snowfall amounts over
southern counties today. A light snow band nw of the IL river has
produced between a half to 1 inch the past several hours from Knox,
Stark and Marshall counties nw toward the Quad Cities. RUC/HRRR
models diminish this light snow band over the IL river valley
through mid morning/15Z and any additional snow accumulations
should be less than 1 inch as it weakens.
1003 mb low pressure over west central AR while 1037 mb high
pressure was near the MN/Canadian border. Very tight pressure
gradient over IL between these systems giving gusty ne winds as
high as 35 to 43 mph over central IL early this morning. RUC and
NAM models show these higher wind gusts of 35-45 mph shifting
ssw by midday so strongest winds over central IL during the
morning and not quite as strong in the afternoon hours. Still
think shy of wind advisory criteria though a few spots could reach
sustained around 30 mph or a bit higher and/or wind gusts near 45
mph. Low pressure to track east across northern MS/AL today and
keep brunt of heavier pcpn south of IL. Have chance of mixed
precip this morning southern areas and mainly just chance of light
snow se IL this afternoon and ending by late today as low pressure
system pulls away from IL.
Much colder today and little temperature rise and se IL may even
see temps slipping during the day into the lower 30s. Clouds
decreasing over the IL river valley this afternoon and over rest
of area during the evening with diminishing winds. Cold lows in
the mid to upper teens tonight with southeast IL around 20F.
Nice warmup in store Mon and especially Tue with upper 50s and
lower 60s possible Tue afternoon. 995 mb low pressure passes nw of
IL Tue night and brings a cold front east through the state with
chance of rain showers and diminishing already during Wed. Temps
cool just a bit behind this system Wed/Thu but still could see
highs in upper 40s to mid 50s.
LONG TERM...Thursday night through Sunday
Milder temps return Friday with breezy southerly winds and highs
back into the upper 50s and lower 60s with even mid 60s se of I-70.
Low pressure passes to north of central IL again Fri/Fri night
brining a cold front through Friday night and next chance of rain
showers Fri and Fri night. Canadian high pressure building down
into the Midwest this weekend to bring colder temperatures back to
the region.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1153 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2014
A band of light snow will drop into northern parts of the area
just after midnight and begin to affect PIA and BMI. Cigs will
drop into MVFR category with Vis around 3-4sm. The light snow will
continue into the early morning hours at both sites, but not get
any worse. After the snow ends, cigs will rise and then continue
to rise into the afternoon hours and then skies will completely
clear during the evening hours. A different scenario will occur at
the other sites. SPI will not see any snow at the site until close
to morning, and the system will have become weaker. So vis will
only get down to 5sm with cigs around 3kft. Like PIA and BMI cigs
will improve once the snow ends around noon, and then eventually
clear during the evening hours. DEC and CMI will likely not see
any snow, but since clouds could get down to around 5kft during
the morning, will have just VCSH in forecast. Like the rest the
cloud heights will rise during the afternoon and then eventually
clear during the evening. Winds will be northeast through the
period. Winds speeds will be gusty and then increase during the
overnight hours and continue through the day, since the system
will be strengthening some to the south of the area. Expecting
gusts as high as 30-35kts through the period and most sites.
During the evening, winds will decrease but still remain around
14kts, but not gusts.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
307 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE LOW IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA
DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH A STRONGER LOW
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA-ARKANSAS BORDER. IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES
NOTED BEHIND THE TWO SYSTEMS STRETCHING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ALSO EVIDENT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI LOW. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE TWO FGEN BANDS OF SNOW THAT WERE ALONG
I-80 AND ALONG A LINE FROM CENTERVILLE IOWA TO WASHINGTON AROUND
MIDNIGHT HAVE MERGED INTO ONE MAIN BAND OF SNOW STRETCHING FROM
CENTERVILLE IOWA THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES AT 0730Z. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN REDUCED DOWN TO A THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE AT TIMES WITH
A HALF INCH OF SNOW RECORDED AT THE NWS OFFICE IN DAVENPORT AT
06Z. AT 2AM...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER
30S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON SNOW CHANCES THIS MORNING THEN ON CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
SNOW TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LATEST RAP TRENDS AND TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS SHOW FORCING WEAKENING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH
SNOW DISSIPATING AND EXITING THE FAR SOUTH BY LATE MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-80 WITH
A FEW AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS. TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH ARE CURRENTLY AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING SO ANTICIPATE SNOW TO ACCUMULATE MAINLY ON
ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES IN THESE AREAS. AFTER THE SNOW
ENDS...COLD AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS
ALONG WITH CAA IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORTWAVE TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
MOST OF THE CWA SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY NOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE STRENGTHENING MID-
MARCH SUN SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE MODEL
GUIDANCE THUS WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
TODAY. THIS IS ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID MARCH.
TONIGHT...QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST INTO MICHIGAN. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS BY MONDAY MORNING. IF ANY SNOW
REMAINS FROM THIS MORNING/S EVENT THEN TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH CONTINUE TO APPEAR AT TWO DAYS OF CONTINUAL
WARM ADVECTION...LARGELY WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE. THUS...A SOUTH
BREEZE OF 15 TO 20 MPH FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
FORECAST...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING
TUESDAY. WE MAY NEED TO MELT OFF SOME SNOW ON MONDAY ....BUT GIVEN
SOME SUN TODAY AND MONDAY...IT SHOULD BE EASILY MELTED OFF BY MID
MORNING...WITH MODEST HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST FORECAST. MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF FALL BELOW FREEZING
SHOULD OCCUR IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST...BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RISE LATE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BREEZY AND
MILD TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE FAST MOVING STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS/NAM/UKMET ALL TAKE THE ENERGY AND LOW WELL NORTH OF THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
TRACK OVER OUR CWA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL
SHOWING THIS...AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT YET. STILL...A DRY TUESDAY
LOOKS MOST LIKELY...GIVEN THE WEAK MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WAA.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...IN EITHER POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...OR THROUGH A
SOUTHERN TRACKING ECMWF DEFORMATION ZONE...WE SHOULD GET OUT MAIN
PCPN THREAT. THIS LOOKS TO BE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS WE GO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE WEST
AND STILL QUITE BREEZY...AT LEAST 15 MPH IF NOT 20 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH GUST LIKELY OVER 30 MPH.
THURSDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...MODELS LOOSE CONSISTENCY AS THEY HAVE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE SEVERAL PASSING
WEAKER SYSTEMS...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IF WHICH RELATES TO FRIDAY. A
CHANCE FOR RAIN IS INCLUDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
THIS...ALMOST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM. GIVEN THAT IT IS MARCH...AND WE
SHOULD NOT HAVE SNOW COVER TO DEAL WITH MID TO LATE WEEK...THESE
SYSTEMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP AHEAD OF
THEM...LIKELY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. TIMING OF THEM WILL BE VERY
HARD...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT LEADING TO A MUCH HIGHER THAN
NORMAL PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURE FORECAST BUSTS.
ERVIN
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
A BAND OF LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS
MLI/BRL TERMINALS BETWEEN 15/06Z AND 15/09Z. THE SNOW SHOULD LAST
1 TO 3 HOURS WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.
NE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY 25 KTS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT BRL/MLI. AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN A FEW HOURS WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING BY MORNING TO MID DAY. THE NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KTS BY MID AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN WITH CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY 16/00Z.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR HENRY IL-ROCK ISLAND-
WHITESIDE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GROSS
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1212 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
Winds will be the main forecast challenge tonight and how to handle
with the wind advisory headline. Earlier in the day we extended the
advisory to start sooner, especially across the western and northern
counties. All the guidance, including RAP and NAM forecast
soundings, suggest a fairly prolonged period of 25 to 28 knots
sustained this evening through about 09Z. Thereafter, the focus of
the wind will shift into south-central Kansas with the gradient
relaxing roughly west of a Meade to Dodge City to Hays line toward
daybreak. As far as precipitation is concerned, we eliminated POPs
everywhere except south-central Kansas where we kept 20-30 POPs
across mainly Barber County in the low level frontogenetic zone. RAP
and HRRR have shown a persistent convective signal in this area with
several hundred J/kg of MLCAPE. Any convection which does affect
Barber County this evening will quickly move southeast into northern
Oklahoma, so the threat for anything substantial as far as a
prolonged strong or even severe threat is extremely minimal. Low
level cold advection will prevail tonight, but with the winds
keeping the boundary layer mixed, we really won`t see terribly low
temperatures for lows -- mainly in the 29-33F range for much of the
southwest Kansas region. The downslope component in the lower
troposphere will eliminate the cold advection, and with insolation
resuming we should see temperatures Sunday warm up into the upper
40s to near 50 in some locations.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level ridge axis transitioning
southeastward across the Western High Plains Monday while an upper
level trough of low pressure tracks east-southeast across the
Pacific Northwest. Along with a fairly weak flow aloft, this will
result in dry conditions across western Kansas through Monday
night. The upper level trough will then push further southeast
into the Northern Plains Tuesday setting up precip chances from the
Dakotas southward into Nebraska and possibly Kansas. Although an
attendant cold front is projected to push through western Kansas
early Tuesday, the bulk of the upper level system will pass just to
our north. Along with drier air in the lower levels, little if any
rain is expected Tuesday...so a slight chance for rain seems
reasonable. Drier conditions are then expected to persist through
mid week as the flow aloft becomes more zonal.
Well above normal temperatures are expected Monday as lee side
troughing develops and strengthens across eastern Colorado. This
will set up a low level flow across western Kansas helping to draw
much warmer air into the area with H85 temperatures in the mid
Teens(C) across central Kansas to near 20C closer to the Colorado
border. Look for widespread highs up into the 70s(F) Monday
afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are likely Tuesday as a cold
front pushes through western Kansas early in the day. Colder air
will surges southward into the area with the H85 0C isotherm
reaching as far south as the I-70 corridor by late Tuesday
afternoon. Highs are only expected up into the 50s(F) across
west central Kansas to possibly the lower to mid 60s(F) in south
central Kansas. More seasonal temperatures are expected through
the end of the week as the flow aloft becomes more zonal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
Windy conditions continue overnight. Northerly winds will
initially be around 30 knots gusting to 40 then decrease to 20
knots gusting to 30 by late morning. VFR conditions will prevail
with mid clouds AOA080.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 27 73 41 59 / 0 0 10 20
GCK 28 75 40 55 / 0 0 10 20
EHA 32 78 41 54 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 27 78 42 59 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 26 72 40 55 / 0 0 0 10
P28 24 73 42 65 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ early this morning FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>063-074-075-084-085.
WIND ADVISORY until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR KSZ064>066-
076>081-086>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
445 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A FEW CHALLENGES IN THE FCST FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. LET US SEE
HOW MANY I CAN COVER IN THIS AFD. FIRST...POPS FOR TODAY. BULK OF
THE CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE AREA. NEW CLUSTER HAS DEVELOP ACROSS
DEEP E TX OVER THE LAST FEW HRS. RADAR TRENDS AND 06Z HRRR SUGGEST
THIS LINE WILL PERSIST INTO OUR LA PARISHES SO HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 15Z AND THEN BEGAN TO TAPER POPS FROM W TO E
BEYOND THAT TIME. REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS LARGELY BEEN DRY
SLOTTED BUT AREAS N OF I-30...PARTICULARLY SE OK/EXTREME SW AR
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT SEEING SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SFC LOW. LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING SE ACROSS TX MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHWRS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA BUT EFFECTS OF DRY SLOTTING MAY BE TOO MUCH
TO OVERCOME. HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION.
NEXT...WINDS TODAY. NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO REALLY PICK UP LATER
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA AND THEN ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SPEEDS SHOULD BE OVER
LAKE WIND ADV CRITERIA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING SO THE ADVISORY WILL RUN UNTIL 06Z
TONIGHT.
THIRD...TEMPS TODAY. THE STRONG NWLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS TODAY SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z-13Z. DELAY OF THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD AIR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING GENERALLY SE OF A KLFK-KMLU LINE BEFORE
18Z...BEYOND WHICH TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE.
FOURTH...POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIP TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH MANY LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REACHED OR ARE
NEAR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATES WINTER WEATHER CAN STILL HAPPEN IN
THIS REGION THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS
ARE LIKELY NORTH OF A KOSA-KELD LINE. MORE NLY COMPONENT TO LOW
LVL WINDS STILL KEEP CONFIDENCE HIGHER IN COLD AIR DAMMING BY THE
OUACHITAS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
SRN AR TO SUPPORT A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW. BESIDES
THE ISSUE OF HAVING ENOUGH COLD AIR TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIP
TYPES...THERE IS STILL A QUESTION REGARDING IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE AREA FOR PRECIP. MODELS MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT QPF
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FCST. IF WINTRY PRECIP DOES OCCUR...IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL.
TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE BY TUESDAY
DUE TO STRONG SLY FLOW AND WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAST MOVING FRONT
DUE TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY. ECMWF STILL FCSTING QPF WITH THIS
FRONT BUT DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TIME FOR SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURN TO SUPPORT ANY RAIN CHANCES. TEMPS MAY BE KNOCKED
BACK DOWN BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CHANCES FOR RAIN NOT EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 60 37 58 40 73 / 30 20 10 10 10
MLU 66 36 53 36 72 / 30 20 10 10 10
DEQ 56 30 56 34 71 / 50 20 10 10 10
TXK 57 35 54 40 71 / 40 20 10 10 10
ELD 58 32 55 36 72 / 40 20 10 10 10
TYR 57 35 57 43 75 / 30 10 10 10 10
GGG 58 35 57 41 73 / 30 10 10 10 10
LFK 62 37 57 39 75 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ059-070-071.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-060-061-072-073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001-002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ003>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ152-153-165>167.
&&
$$
09/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
438 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF
OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN PERSISTENT DEEP UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR
JAMES BAY AND MEAN UPR RDG OVER THE W. IN THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS THAT IS DOMINATING ERN CANADA AND THE NE CONUS...00Z H5/H85
TEMPS WERE AS LO AS -45C/-26C AT MOOSONEE AT THE S END OF JAMES BAY.
SFC HI PRES UNDER THE CONFLUENT UPR FLOW IS MOVING INTO NW MN EARLY
THIS MRNG. THE STEADY N WIND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS ADVECTING
COLDER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS. DESPITE THE LLVL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS...WHERE THE PWAT WAS 0.05 AND 0.04
INCH RESPECTIVELY OR ONLY 25 PCT OF NORMAL...GENERAL ACYC NATURE OF
THE LLVL FLOW...AND THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP...SOME SCT LK
CLDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE U.P. BUT AT SOME OF THE
COLDER SPOTS OVER THE WRN INTERIOR...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHTER
WINDS AND THE VERY DRY AIR HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO FALL WELL BLO ZERO.
TO THE W OF THE SFC HI IN THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA...WAD BTWN
THE HI CENTER AND A SHRTV DROPPING SE OVER THE UPR RDG INTO SCNTRL
CANADA IS BRINGING LOTS OF CLDS AND SOME LGT SN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPS FOR TODAY AND THEN
CLD TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS TNGT AS WELL AS CHC FOR SN LATER TNGT
OVER THE W.
TODAY...ARCTIC HI PRES CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SE OVER UPR MI
TODAY AND TO NEAR TRAVERSE CITY BY 00Z MON. EXPECT ANY LK CLDS OVER
THE NRN TIER THIS MRNG TO DISSIPATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HI AND
DIURNAL HEATING. MIXING TO ABOUT H875 AS OBSVD UPSTREAM YDAY ON FCST
SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS REACHING THE 20-25 RANGE NEAR THE WI BORDER
AWAY FM ANY LK COOLING/ICE COVER.
TNGT...AS THE ARCTIC HI CENTER SHIFTS INTO SE ONTARIO BY 12Z MON AND
A SHRTWV SLIDING ESEWD IN THE WNW FLOW ALF ARND PERSISTENT UPR TROF
OVER QUEBEC MOVES TO NEAR LK WINNIPEG...DEEP...LARGER SCALE SSW
FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 280-290K SFCS /H8-6/ WL
RESULT IN INCRSG CLDS W-E. ALTHOUGH SOME LGT SN MAY REACH THE WRN
CWA LATE UNDER THE DEEPENING SATURATION/MORE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF 100KT H3 JET MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV...TENACIOUS DRIER LLVL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ONLY SLOW
MOVING SFC HI PRES OVER SE ONTARIO HELD IN PLACE BY NW FLOW ON THE
WRN FLANK OF QUEBEC TROF SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE LAND CWA DRY THRU
THE NGT. MIN TEMPS WL BE LOWEST OVER THE E HALF CLOSER TO THE SFC
HI...WHERE WINDS WL BE LIGHTER AND WAD CLDS WL ARRIVE THE LATEST...
HELPING TO MAINTAIN PWAT AS LO AS 40-50 PCT OF NORMAL AT NEWBERRY
THRU 12Z MON. INCRSG CLDS AND DOWNSLOPE S WINDS OVER THE W NEAR LK
SUP WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP THERE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
FOCUS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK IS ON LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT LIFTS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BUT
FIRST THINGS FIRST AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLSN MAY OCCUR ON
MONDAY OVER AT LEAST NORTHWEST CWA.
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NOSING ACROSS CNTRL ALBERTA SHOWING UP WELL ON
WV LOOP. WAVE DIGS ESE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN SLIDES TO THE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR IN ONTARIO BY MONDAY EVENING.
ALL THE MAIN MODELS SHOW A LOT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIFT
OCCURRING WITHIN THE DGZ. MAIN ISSUE IS LOW-LEVEL RH AS THERE IS
SIGNAL THAT DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP MUCH SNOW FM REACHING THE
EASTERN CWA. STRONGEST LIFT VIA THE WAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280-290K SFCS /H8-H6/ OCCURS OVER NW CWA...VCNTY
OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA. MIXING RATIOS TO 2G/KG AT H7 AND THE FOCUSED
LARGER SCALE FORCING POINT TO ACCUMULATING SNOW FM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID-LATE AFTN. IN ADDITION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 20
MPH MAY RESULT IN PATCHY BLSN AS WELL. POTENTIAL THAT BETTER
FORCING/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY EVEN BUMP FARTHER NORTH AS ECMWF AND
NAM SHOWS...SO WILL NOT GO WITH LIKELY POPS QUITE YET...BUT WILL SHOW
HIGHER POP GRADIENT WITH HIGH CHANCES NW WITH SLIGHT CHANCES TO NO
MENTION OF POPS OVER SOUTH AND EAST CWA. TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING
TREND WITH UPR 20S WEST AND LOWER 20S EAST THOUGH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL PROVIDE A BITE TO THE WARMER TEMPS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS PRIMARY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. HINT THERE MAY BE A LEAD
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMING ACROSS UPR LAKES ON MONDAY
EVENING. ECMWF STRONGEST BUT GEM-NH AND EVEN GFS SHOW SOMETHING
SIMILAR. BUMPED POPS TO CHANCE IN THE EVENING FOR MAINLY WEST HALF.
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BETTER FORCING TAKES SHAPE TO THE
WEST MAINLY OVER MINNESOTA ALONG SFC-H85 TROUGH AXIS AND WITHIN
DEVELOPING AREA OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AND DIVERGENCE FM RIGHT ENTRANCE
JET FORCING. NET RESULT IS SHARPER EDGE OF MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
BY TUESDAY. KEPT CHANCES BANKED OVER FAR WEST CWA...WHILE LOWER H85
RH SHOULD KEEP REST OF CWA MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...BARRING ANY MORE
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH. SHIELD OF THICKER MID CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S MOST AREAS...THOUGH A RUN INTO THE LOWER 40S
COULD OCCUR OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST IF CLOUDS THIN OUT.
NOW ONTO THE PRIMARY SYSTEM OF THIS WEEK. SFC PATTERN AND MODEL
FORECAST H85 TEMPS SHOW WARM LAYER WILL BE FACTOR LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND AS 250MB DIVERGENCE INCREASES ATOP STRONG WARM AND MOIST
ADVECTION IN LOW-LEVELS. PERIOD OF MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE FROM 09Z-18Z WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SFC-H85 LOW FURTHER BOOSTING PRECIP TOTALS ALONG
LK SUPERIOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT EXACTLY WHERE IS THE QUESTION.
CURRENTLY THE LINE BETWEEN SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION /SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN BOTH POSSIBLE BASED ON SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB AND
850-700MB THICKNESSES/ IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER CNTRL CWA. MODELS
HAVE SHOWN TYPICAL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES AND ARE ALSO NOT
AGREEING WELL WITH EACH OTHER AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK UNTIL THE SYSTEM /WHICH IS STILL COMING TOGETHER
OVER THE PACIFIC TO THE SOUTH OF ALASKA AND WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ IS THOROUGHLY SAMPLED BY RAOB NETWORK AND THE MODELS
ULTIMATELY GET HANDLE ON WHERE THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK. LATEST MODELS
HAVE OVERALL TRENDED FARTHER EAST WITH SFC LOW AND COOLER WITH H85
TEMPS. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY LARGE CHANGES TO PTYPE IN GRIDS.
FOLLOWING BLEND OF PREVIOUS MODELS LOCATION OF SFC LOW AND WARM
LAYER...KEPT MENTION OF ALL PTYPES IN FOR WEDNESDAY OVER THE EAST
CWA...WHILE MAINLY HAVE A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET FOR CNTRL CWA...AND
ONLY SNOW IN THE WESTERN CWA.
BEYOND THE SYSTEM...LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW IN WAKE OF THE SFC LOW
AND UPR LAKES IN VICINITY OF TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP ON COLD SIDE OF SYSTEM PERSISTING WELL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TURNED ALL PCPN BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z THURSDAY. THEN...SMALL CHANCES
FOR SNOW SHOWERS JUSTIFIED FOR AT LEAST FIRST PART OF THURSDAY WITH
HIGHER 1000-850MB RH AND WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW. FOR BOTH OF THESE
PERIODS...INCREASED POPS OVER WHAT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWED.
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS FROM OHIO VALLEY ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES
IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING
AFFECTS FM CLOUDS OR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOULD WANE...ALLOWING FOR
TEMPS TO FALL OFF OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PREFERRED ECMWF
SHOWING MORE NW FLOW ALOFT VERSUS GFS WHICH TENDS TO FLATTEN THE
FLOW TOO QUICK. THUS...DISCOUNTED FARTHER NORTH QPF THAT GFS SHOWS
IMPACTING SOUTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS 06Z FRIDAY. SEEMS MUCH TOO QUICK
AND TOO FAR NORTH. LATEST ECMWF DID BUMP FARTHER NORTH WITH WAVE
MOVING THROUGH...SO KEPT CONSENSUS SMALL CHANCES FOR FAR SCNTRL CWA
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
REST OF EXTENDED FEATURES NW FLOW IN LOW-LEVELS BTWN DEVELOPING LOW
FOR THE NORTHEAST AND SFC HIGH CNTRL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. 15MAR
12Z RUN OF ECMWF WAS SHOWING ANOTHER PUSH OF CHILLY AIR WITH H85
TEMPS NEARING -20C. THOUGH GEM-NH LOOKS LIKE THE GFS FRIDAY BEYOND
THAT IT ALSO SHOWS A COLD PLUNGE BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL NO MATTER WHAT MODEL IS FAVORED...NO SIGNIFCANT OR LASTING
WARM UPS ARE SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN NW OF THE LAKE SHOULD RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT ALL THE TAF SITES. LIGHT
LAKE BREEZE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AT KCMX
AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS INTO TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING HI PRES
CENTER WILL BECOME S AND INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MON UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING HI TO
THE E AND A LO PRES DEVELOPING IN THE NCENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS MAY DIMINISH LATER MON AND MON NIGHT AS THE HI CENTER SLIPS
FARTHER TO THE E AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...WINDS WILL BACK MORE TO
THE E AND INCREASE UP TO 25-30 KTS ON TUE AS THE PLAINS LO MOVES
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE NW UP TO 25 KTS
ON WED INTO THU ONCE THIS LOW SHIFTS TO THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
349 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF
OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN PERSISTENT DEEP UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR
JAMES BAY AND MEAN UPR RDG OVER THE W. IN THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS THAT IS DOMINATING ERN CANADA AND THE NE CONUS...00Z H5/H85
TEMPS WERE AS LO AS -45C/-26C AT MOOSONEE AT THE S END OF JAMES BAY.
SFC HI PRES UNDER THE CONFLUENT UPR FLOW IS MOVING INTO NW MN EARLY
THIS MRNG. THE STEADY N WIND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS ADVECTING
COLDER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS. DESPITE THE LLVL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS...WHERE THE PWAT WAS 0.05 AND 0.04
INCH RESPECTIVELY OR ONLY 25 PCT OF NORMAL...GENERAL ACYC NATURE OF
THE LLVL FLOW...AND THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP...SOME SCT LK
CLDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE U.P. BUT AT SOME OF THE
COLDER SPOTS OVER THE WRN INTERIOR...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHTER
WINDS AND THE VERY DRY AIR HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO FALL WELL BLO ZERO.
TO THE W OF THE SFC HI IN THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA...WAD BTWN
THE HI CENTER AND A SHRTV DROPPING SE OVER THE UPR RDG INTO SCNTRL
CANADA IS BRINGING LOTS OF CLDS AND SOME LGT SN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPS FOR TODAY AND THEN
CLD TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS TNGT AS WELL AS CHC FOR SN LATER TNGT
OVER THE W.
TODAY...ARCTIC HI PRES CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SE OVER UPR MI
TODAY AND TO NEAR TRAVERSE CITY BY 00Z MON. EXPECT ANY LK CLDS OVER
THE NRN TIER THIS MRNG TO DISSIPATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HI AND
DIURNAL HEATING. MIXING TO ABOUT H875 AS OBSVD UPSTREAM YDAY ON FCST
SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS REACHING THE 20-25 RANGE NEAR THE WI BORDER
AWAY FM ANY LK COOLING/ICE COVER.
TNGT...AS THE ARCTIC HI CENTER SHIFTS INTO SE ONTARIO BY 12Z MON AND
A SHRTWV SLIDING ESEWD IN THE WNW FLOW ALF ARND PERSISTENT UPR TROF
OVER QUEBEC MOVES TO NEAR LK WINNIPEG...DEEP...LARGER SCALE SSW
FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 280-290K SFCS /H8-6/ WL
RESULT IN INCRSG CLDS W-E. ALTHOUGH SOME LGT SN MAY REACH THE WRN
CWA LATE UNDER THE DEEPENING SATURATION/MORE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF 100KT H3 JET MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV...TENACIOUS DRIER LLVL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ONLY SLOW
MOVING SFC HI PRES OVER SE ONTARIO HELD IN PLACE BY NW FLOW ON THE
WRN FLANK OF QUEBEC TROF SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE LAND CWA DRY THRU
THE NGT. MIN TEMPS WL BE LOWEST OVER THE E HALF CLOSER TO THE SFC
HI...WHERE WINDS WL BE LIGHTER AND WAD CLDS WL ARRIVE THE LATEST...
HELPING TO MAINTAIN PWAT AS LO AS 40-50 PCT OF NORMAL AT NEWBERRY
THRU 12Z MON. INCRSG CLDS AND DOWNSLOPE S WINDS OVER THE W NEAR LK
SUP WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP THERE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK AS A
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE CWA...POSSIBLY BRINGING MIXED PRECIP AND SOME
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO PARTS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MINOR PRECIP WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS IS EXPECTED.
FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS MODEL RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR FOR MOST MODELS AND MODEL AGREEMENT
HAS ONLY BEEN FAIR. THE POOR CONTINUITY AND UNCERTAINTY IS CERTAINLY
UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR THE SYSTEM WILL
BE EJECTING OUT OF A TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHING S OF AN UPPER LOW
OVER SW AK. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR WHERE THE ENERGY IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE MODEL SPREAD
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE BETTER
OBSERVATION NETWORK OF THE PACIFIC NW CONUS ON MON. IN A TYPICAL
SITUATION WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...SHOULD START SEEING BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT AND HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE MON NIGHT OR TUE AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO A STRONG RIDGE UP UNTIL THIS POINT...LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW WELL IT DOES AFTER INTERACTING WITH
THE RIDGE. MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENING AND BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AFTER LEEWARD CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS E OF THE ROCKIES
AND NRN/SRN JET STREAM INTERACTION OCCURS ON THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACTLY WHERE AND TO WHAT MAGNITUDE THE LOW DEEPENS IS LESS
AGREED TO BETWEEN THE MODELS AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN FUTURE RUNS
ANYWAY. MODELS THEN SHOW THE LOW CLOSING OFF OVER OR NEAR THE CWA
SOMETIME WED/WED NIGHT. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
MIXED PRECIP OVER AT LEAST THE SERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA GIVEN
CURRENT MODEL DEPICTIONS AND MORE SNOW OVER THE NW THIRD.
AGAIN...THESE DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THAT BEING SAID...DID NOT FIND ANY GOOD REASONS TO CHANGE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT HAD MIXED PRECIP OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED
FAVORED AREAS. TO THE W/NW OF THE LOW TRACK...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT DETAILS ARE STILL SKETCHY. DEFINITELY A
TRICKY SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN NW OF THE LAKE SHOULD RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT ALL THE TAF SITES. LIGHT
LAKE BREEZE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AT KCMX
AND KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS INTO TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING HI PRES
CENTER WILL BECOME S AND INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MON UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING HI TO
THE E AND A LO PRES DEVELOPING IN THE NCENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS MAY DIMINISH LATER MON AND MON NIGHT AS THE HI CENTER SLIPS
FARTHER TO THE E AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...WINDS WILL BACK MORE TO
THE E AND INCREASE UP TO 25-30 KTS ON TUE AS THE PLAINS LO MOVES
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE NW UP TO 25 KTS
ON WED INTO THU ONCE THIS LOW SHIFTS TO THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
222 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST STATES AND COASTAL CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 855 PM SATURDAY...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY...MAINLY DENOTED BY A
WIND SHIFT TO NW AND ABOUT A 5-10 DEG DEWPOINT DROP...ALONG A KFVX-
KDAN-KHKY LINE. THIS BOUNDARY IS PROGGED BY THE LATEST HRRR TO
CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTH OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVING LITTLE OR NO IMPACT
ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL IMPACT OUR TEMP TREND
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIMITED IF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. BOTH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WAS ABOUT 2-4 DEG TOO COLD FOR ITS
00Z PROG. THUS MAKING APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS SUGGESTS LOWS TONIGHT
BOTTOMING OUT IN MID-UPR 40S...COLDEST NORTH. WILL MAKE A FEW
SUBTLE TWEAKS TO THE TEMP GRIDS FOR OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE...REST OF
THE 1ST PERIOD FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL UNDERGO A SLOW EVOLUTION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BECOMING ELONGATED AND POSITIVELY TILTED WEST
OF THE APPALACHIANS. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY FOCUSED ALONG
AN 850MB FRONT TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING...WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
NORTH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ATOP A WEAK IN-SITU CAD AIRMASS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 1.3 INCHES AND A ROUGH MODEL
CONSENSUS GIVE 1 TO 1.25 INCHES OF QPF THROUGH 06Z...GREATEST
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD..SO ELEVATED CONVECTION DOES APPEAR TO BE AN
ISSUE...WITH ALL LOW-LEVEL BASED INSTABILITY OFFSHORE. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR RIVER FLOODING...MAINLY ALONG
THE NEUSE...IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
TEMPS ARE TRICKY AND WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL CURVE WITH BEST HEAT
ACROSS THE NORTH PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF LOWER CLOUD BASES AND
PRECIP. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH
EARLY ON...WITH MID 40S NORTHWEST AND UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTH.
THE FORECAST BECOMES EXTRA TRICKY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY
FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF A CANADIAN AIRMASS PUSHES INTO NC FROM
THE NORTH. THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH...WHILE NOT VERY STRONG
(1025MB)...WILL SETTLE TOWARD UPSTATE NY...AND ALL MODELS HAVE
TRENDED COLDER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP PROFILES BETWEEN 06 AND
12Z MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE WETBULB FREEZING LINE IS FORECAST
TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z...REACHING ROUGHLY A LING FROM DAVIDSON TO ORANGE TO VANCE
COUNTIES BY 12Z. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE QPF AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ICE
NUCLEATION IS LOST...AND PRECIP RATES FALL OFF TREMENDOUSLY. A TOP
DOWN APPROACH WOULD FAVOR RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AND
DRIZZLE BY 12Z....WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANTLY COLD ENOUGH COLD NOSE
FOR MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET DURING THE TRANSITION...WHEN
MOISTURE IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE ALOFT. WITH
MODELS SHOWING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF...ITS DIFFICULT TO
HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRUAL...BUT AN ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BECAUSE
MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME FORM OF LIGHT PRECIP...BUT
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LOWS 31-32 IN THE AREAS MENTIONED
FOR FREEZING RAIN AND 33- 40 TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...
BY MONDAY MORNING...BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM FORECAST DRYING IN THE
MID-LEVELS MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HUMIDITIES ARE
LIMITED ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO NEAR -10C...WHICH MAY MAKE
ICE NUCLEATION DIFFICULT FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. IF THIS OCCURS...WHILE THE SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURE IS
BELOW 0C FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IN
PARTICULAR...THE PRECIPITATION RATES MAY BE LIGHT. THE LATEST WRF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS...AND QPF FROM THE GFS AND THE NAM IS LIGHT
FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY. ASSUMING THE QPF IS ACCURATE...THIS IS
FORTUNATE AS IF THE PRECIPITATION RATES WERE HIGHER...WITH A GOOD
COLD NOSE IN PLACE...JUST A LITTLE MORE SATURATION COULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO THE WET BULB AND STAYING THERE...AND THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NON-
LIQUID. HOWEVER...DESPITE A CLOUDY DAY AND A NORTHEAST FLOW...IF
PRECIPITATION RATES WANE AS EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE TO
RISE EVEN A LITTLE BIT...AND LOWER PRECIPITATION RATES WOULD MEAN
MORE OF A LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT DRIZZLE WITH SOME PATCHY SLEET OUTSIDE
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING. FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER MONDAY WILL ONLY SHOW LIQUID
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT ALBEMARLE TO WILSON...WITH A
CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX NORTH OF THIS LINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL
GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE DAY AS A WHOLE...THOUGH EXPECT THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS OR...AGAIN...JUST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. DAYTIME HIGHS CERTAINLY WELL BELOW NORMAL...ONLY MID
TO UPPER 30S NORTH OF U.S. 64...AND NEAR 40 TO 45 FROM THERE SOUTH.
THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT IS ALSO QPF DEPENDENT...AND WHILE THE NAM
IS DRIER...THE GFS AND THE NEW ECMWF ARE NOTICEABLY WETTER...WITH AS
MUCH AS A QUARTER-INCH OF QPF OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE WEST. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...GIVEN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALOFT THIS COULD BE THE
PERIOD WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS COULD BE MOST ACUTE...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE WEST AND NORTH. THIS WOULD ALSO BE A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE TIME FOR CONCERN DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY...OR
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA ARE FORECAST A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING OR SO... AND THE BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STILL
COLD...YIELDING A LIKELIHOOD OF NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS SURFACE
WET BULB TEMPERATURES THERE CONTINUE TO BE BELOW 0C. WHILE AN
ADVISORY-TYPE SCENARIO OVERALL IS PREFERRED AT PRESENT AS THE EVENT
DRAWS NEAR...IF THERE WAS ONE PERIOD IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
WHERE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A
CATEGORY...THIS COULD BE THE ONE. PRUDENT TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS
REGARDING THIS FIFTH PERIOD FORECAST FOR NOW.
ON TUESDAY...WET BULB TEMPERATURES AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST...AND COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
RETREAT. FOR THIS FORECAST CONFINED ANY PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES TO
EARLY IN THE DAY...NOTING BY LATE MORNING ONLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION
IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. MORE CONFIDENT IN LIKELY CHANCES TO START
THE DAY...THEN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND SPEED OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
OF THE COAST...DIMINISHED POPS TO CHANCE BY LATE IN THE DAY...THOUGH
AT A MINIMUM IT SHOULD STILL BE CLOUDY AND DAMP. HIGHS AROUND 40 IN
THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...TO AROUND 50 IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST...LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF MOS MEAN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...IN GENERAL...THE GFS IS THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER. BOTH MODELS...HOWEVER...SUGGEST
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO RETREAT LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES RISE OVERNIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARMING AS
WELL. WET BULB SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY ON BOTH
MODELS REMAIN 35F OR ABOVE...ALSO SUGGESTIVE THAT LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE LIQUID. MOST
PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE LIGHT...AS THE MID LEVELS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE RATHER DRY...AND WHAT MAY BE THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER RESULT OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE. HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE
WEDNESDAY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE ECMWF AND DRIER AIR...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL MENTION
SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON USING A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. HAVE
TRENDED TEMPERATURES COLDER WEDNESDAY FOR THIS FORECAST ANTICIPATING
MORE CLOUDS AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...IN A
RELATIVE SENSE WARMEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID 60S WHERE ANY CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE EARLIEST.
FRONTAL TIMING REMAINS DIFFERENT ON THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH DRY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THE ECMWF
BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH MOSTLY DRY DURING THURSDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE INDIVIDUAL
MODELS...ALBEIT DRIER. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF SHOULD LIMIT
MOISTURE RETURN...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES HAVE QPF FROM THE COASTAL
PLAIN TOWARD THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON LIKELY AS THE FRONT WITH
ITS ECMWF TIMING INTERACTS WITH A LITTLE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TOWARD THE COAST. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE GENERAL STABILITY OF THE COARSE
ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND THE DRY AND STABLE GFS SOUNDINGS...
THOUGH AN ALTERNATIVE COULD BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST
OF U.S. 1 WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES
EXACTLY. THURSDAY COULD END UP BEING MODESTLY BREEZY...BUT THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS AS CURRENTLY FORECAST SHOULD KEEP ANY INCREASED
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS NEGLIGIBLE.
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE FRONT TRAILING A STRONG
SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGING ALONG
THE GULF DIMINISHES MORE ON THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF...SUCH THAT WHILE
THE ECMWF IS FAIRLY DRY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE GFS ADVECTS
MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND DEVELOPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL FORECAST
BROAD SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OUT TO THE SEVENTH DAY...BUT A
PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO IS THAT MUCH OF THE DAY IS DRY...BREEZY AND WARM
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IMMEDIATELY IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...AS CONTINENTAL POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. WARM AND MOIST
AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL ASCEND THE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/
NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF RAIN AND MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 16-
22Z TODAY. ENE TO NE SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE
10-15 KT RANGE...AND BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KTS TONIGHT...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE - AND CONTINUED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS -
WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND THE END
OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AT TRIAD TERMINALS...AND THIS CHANGEOVER WILL
NEAR KRDU BY 12Z MON...WITH CONTINUED LIQUID ELSEWHERE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...
BASED ON THE LATEST QPF...AND CURRENT AND FORECAST RIVER LEVELS...
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING SHOULD BE ON THE NEUSE
RIVER AT SMITHFIELD. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN THE THREE-
INCH RANGE OR BETTER OVER SIX HOURS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...SO
FOR THIS FORECAST PLAN TO REFRAIN FROM ANY FLOOD WATCHES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION MAINSTEM RIVER RISES IN THE HWO...WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR FLOOD STAGES IN GENERAL...BUT IT APPEARS THE
PROBABILITY OF MINOR FLOOD STAGE BEING REACHED IS HIGHEST AT
SMITHFIELD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES...THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
MARCH 17 ARE...
KGSO...38 DEGREES FROM 2005.
KRDU...32 DEGREES FROM 1892.
KFAY...39 DEGREES FROM 2005.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...NP/SMITH
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...MWS
HYDROLOGY...DJF
CLIMATE...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
500 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER KENTUCKY TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN BY MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND A LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO KENTUCKY TODAY AND
HEAD TOWARDS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A
SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL WORK EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON HOW WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS...THIS
COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET AT ONSET. BUT DO NOT EXPECT SLEET TO HAVE ANY IMPACT IN THIS
EVENT. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS DURING THE EVENING THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. MOST ACCUMULATION WILL
OCCUR AFTER DARK WITH THE SNOW ALREADY TAPERING OFF BY 06Z.
THERE WILL BE A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND THUS
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA.
ADJACENT COUNTIES WILL LIKELY HAVE LESS THAN AN INCH WITH LITTLE
OR NO SNOW CLOSE TO THE I-71 CORRIDOR.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THESE
WINDS WILL REPLENISH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
LIMITING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION.
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR READINGS TO BE EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FORECAST AS
SUGGESTED BY NUMEROUS RAP RUNS. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR THEN
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A BIT LOWER SINCE THERE WOULD BE MORE RAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW MIGHT BE
SLIGHTLY LATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL BE ABLE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING. BASED ON LONG TERM MOS BIAS HAVE
BUMPED UP HIGHS FOR MONDAY. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MET MOS MONDAY
NIGHT AND GFS MOS FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SWING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MORE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH
OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO JUMP BACK INTO
THE 60S ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL DROP READINGS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL
RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE TAF SITES. A SYSTEM
WILL MOVE PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. KDAY AND KCMH ARE EXPECTED TO STAY DRY. THE OTHER AREA TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW. HAVE A TEMPO OF
MVFR VSBYS WITH SNOW IN AT KCVG...KLUK...AND KILN AND LIMITED THE
SNOW MENTION TO A VCSH AT KLCK. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR OHZ081-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR KYZ098>100.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
323 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR SERN OK...WITH A LARGE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT PULLS FARTHER E INTO AR...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WE`RE ALREADY
SEEING THIS OCCUR IN PARTS OF NE OK...WITH A RECENT 42MPH GUST AT
THE FORAKER MESONET SITE. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR NE AND ECNTRL OK
LOOKS GOOD...AND WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW.
BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TRYING TO NAIL DOWN THE SWITCHOVER
TO SLEET/SNOW TODAY...AND WHERE ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY
OCCUR. USING A 50/50 MIX OF THE NAM/ECMWF FOR THE TEMP/MOISTURE
PROFILES...AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN NE OK COULD START SEEING A
MIX LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR NW AR AND FAR ADJACENT AREAS OF NE OK. THE MORE RECENT
HOURLY RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE DOWNPLAYED ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
NE OK...AND ARE FOCUSING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ON PARTS OF NW AR
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MORE INLINE WITH THE NAM/ECMWF.
ANY SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND CONDITIONS...IT WILL TAKE GOOD SNOWFALL RATES
FOR ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...WILL OPT FOR A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CARROLL AND MADISON COUNTIES...WHERE AROUND 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW APPEAR LIKELY. DAYSHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY THIS MORNING...AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST ADVISORY FARTHER WEST.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM NICELY BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL KNOCK
TEMPS BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY...AND MAY BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 41 26 59 42 / 80 10 0 0
FSM 52 28 56 38 / 90 20 0 0
MLC 47 26 59 42 / 70 10 0 0
BVO 41 21 61 37 / 60 10 0 0
FYV 45 21 56 35 / 90 20 0 0
BYV 44 21 55 37 / 90 20 0 0
MKO 45 26 58 39 / 80 10 0 0
MIO 41 21 57 39 / 80 10 0 0
F10 43 26 60 41 / 80 10 0 0
HHW 52 29 57 39 / 50 10 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-
OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071.
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM SUNDAY FOR
ARZ002-ARZ011.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
313 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT BLOSSOMING
OVER SOUTHERN FORT WORTH`S CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. BELIEVE THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTEGRITY AND REACH OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HRRR AND NAM12
REDEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH PROG
SOUNDINGS AGREE WITH THE 00Z KCRP RAOB OF A DRY 5-85H LAYER...SE
TX FALLS UNDER A LEFT EXIT QUAD OF A NEAR-PARALLEL EXITING 25H
JET. MID TO UPPER 60 DEW POINT AIR INDICATES THERE IS ENOUGH LOWER
LAYER MOISTURE TO COUNTER THESE DRY MID-LAYERS...AND WITH THE
LIFT OF THE FRONT AND THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS...LEFT HIGH END
CHANCE MORNING POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH...EITHER A SURFACE LOW RIDING
UP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SW`ERLY FLOW...ONLY STRENGTHENS THE ARGUMENT
FOR KEEPING HIGHER POPS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY. GENERALLY
...MOST LOCALES WILL PICK UP A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED SPOTS COULD QUICKLY PICK UP A HALF AN INCH OR MORE FROM
STRONGER CELLS. AMPED UP NORTHERLIES IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WILL
HOLD OFF ON THE WIND ADVISORY AND HAND OFF TO THE NEXT SHIFT AS
THEY WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE `WHEN AND WHERE` OF
SUSTAINED 25 MPH WINDS.
5H TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF REGION MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG CAA
COOLING CONDITIONS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 4OS INLAND...MID
40S AT COAST....WITH A BRISK NORTH WIND. MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY`S EVENING HOURS AS THE REGION FALLS
BETWEEN TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. A CLEARING AND COOL MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY WARMER...ALBEIT CHILLY...TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE MEAN LOW-MID 40S. RETURN FLOW BY TUESDAY SUNRISE...WITH PLENTY
OF AFTERNOON SUN IN ALLOWING MANY COMMUNITIES TO WARM UP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH EASTERN TEXAS
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WASH OUT OVER THE FA...KEEPING
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT ALSO PULLING DOWN A COOLER AIR MASS
AND REGULATING MID-WEEK WARMTH TO THE SEASONABLE AVERAGE LOWER
70S. A COUPLE OF DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAYS TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE-
WISE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEXAS FALLS UNDER A NEAR-ZONAL
SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN. THE EVOLUTION OF GRADUAL WESTERN CONUS
TROUGHING WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK W-SW DISTURBANCES TO RIDE
ON IN AND INCREASE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. 31
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND POSSIBLE AREAS OF DENSE SEA
FOG SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
EXPECT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS TO DEVELOP.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED...AND SOME GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 36 60 42 77 / 20 10 10 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 40 60 45 78 / 50 10 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 44 59 51 70 / 50 10 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31/42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1039 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1039 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Latest radar imagery continues to show a band of frontogenetically
forced snow dissipating across the Illinois River Valley. The
snow currently extends along a line from near El Paso, to Pekin,
to Rushville and is shifting slowly southeastward. While earlier
model data suggested snow would be completely gone by 10am, it
appears light snow/flurries will persist through noon before dry
northeasterly flow finally erodes the precip. Meanwhile, southern
stream wave is spreading rain northward into the Ohio River
Valley: however, precip is having a hard time fighting against the
dry NE flow. Models keep most of the precip just south of the KILX
CWA this afternoon, with only the far SE potentially being
impacted. Have tightened the POP gradient across the E/SE, mainly
to limit any mention of precip to only locations south of I-70.
Even though mostly rain is falling across southern Illinois at
this time, ample dry air within the atmospheric column will lead
to evaporative cooling and snow if the precip makes it into the SE
CWA. Will maintain chance POPs south of I-70, with perhaps around
one half inch of slushy snow accumulation along/south of Highway
50.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 655 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Strong northeast winds the main concern today along with areas of
light snow and briefly lower cigs...especially around Peoria south
to near Springfield this morning. Northeast winds of 25 to 35 mph
with gusts as high as 45 mph at times will continue through this
morning with a gradual decrease in winds this afternoon and esp
this evening as high pressure settles into our area. MVFR cigs
will continue for a few more hours at PIA before conditions start
to improve for late morning thru the afternoon hours. SPI is going
to be right on the edge of the MVFR cigs so for now will continue
with VFR conditions there with snow, if any, expected to be light
enough not to bring the cigs down. VFR conditions are expected
across the entire area tonight as high pressure settles in.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
00Z models continue to trend further south with surface low
pressure and associated qpf fields over southern areas today.
Therefore continue to lower pops and qpf/snowfall amounts over
southern counties today. A light snow band nw of the IL river has
produced between a half to 1 inch the past several hours from Knox,
Stark and Marshall counties nw toward the Quad Cities. RUC/HRRR
models diminish this light snow band over the IL river valley
through mid morning/15Z and any additional snow accumulations
should be less than 1 inch as it weakens.
1003 mb low pressure over west central AR while 1037 mb high
pressure was near the MN/Canadian border. Very tight pressure
gradient over IL between these systems giving gusty ne winds as
high as 35 to 43 mph over central IL early this morning. RUC and
NAM models show these higher wind gusts of 35-45 mph shifting
ssw by midday so strongest winds over central IL during the
morning and not quite as strong in the afternoon hours. Still
think shy of wind advisory criteria though a few spots could reach
sustained around 30 mph or a bit higher and/or wind gusts near 45
mph. Low pressure to track east across northern MS/AL today and
keep brunt of heavier pcpn south of IL. Have chance of mixed
precip this morning southern areas and mainly just chance of light
snow se IL this afternoon and ending by late today as low pressure
system pulls away from IL.
Much colder today and little temperature rise and se IL may even
see temps slipping during the day into the lower 30s. Clouds
decreasing over the IL river valley this afternoon and over rest
of area during the evening with diminishing winds. Cold lows in
the mid to upper teens tonight with southeast IL around 20F.
Nice warmup in store Mon and especially Tue with upper 50s and
lower 60s possible Tue afternoon. 995 mb low pressure passes nw of
IL Tue night and brings a cold front east through the state with
chance of rain showers and diminishing already during Wed. Temps
cool just a bit behind this system Wed/Thu but still could see
highs in upper 40s to mid 50s.
LONG TERM...Thursday night through Sunday
Milder temps return Friday with breezy southerly winds and highs
back into the upper 50s and lower 60s with even mid 60s se of I-70.
Low pressure passes to north of central IL again Fri/Fri night
brining a cold front through Friday night and next chance of rain
showers Fri and Fri night. Canadian high pressure building down
into the Midwest this weekend to bring colder temperatures back to
the region.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
921 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
322 AM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER MAINLY AROUND TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH A TYPICAL SPRING SEE SAW PATTERN OF WARMER PERIODS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER PERIODS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
A DECENT AREA OF SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS THAT EXISTS WITHIN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RADAR
RETURNS SUGGEST THAT THIS BAND OF SNOW IS FAIRLY INTENSE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OF THIS WRITING. VISIBILITIES UNDER
THIS BAND OF SNOW RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2 MILES. HOWEVER...SOME OF
THE MORE INTENSE SNOW COULD BE RESULTING IN SOME ISOLATED BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB MILE VISIBILITIES. OVERALL...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH
THE THINKING OF THIS SNOW. THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SAG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LIKELY ENDING ACROSS MY SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SO...ALTHOUGH THE SNOW IS
FALLING AT A DECENT RATE...IT APPEARS THAT OVERALL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
IN ADDITION TO THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW...THERE IS ACTUALLY ALSO SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. THE COLD AIRMASS SPILLING ACROSS THE LAKE IS
PRODUCING SOME MODEST LAKE INDUCED EL`S UP AROUND 4,000 FEET
AGL...PER MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE A BIG
DEAL...THERE MAY BE A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT. I ADDED A FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH
TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A COLD CANADIAN HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ACROSS THE
REGION...AND AS SUCH...THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD RAW DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. I HAVE REMAINED A BIT HIGHER THAN MOST GUIDANCE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT LOCAL
CLIMATOLOGY FOR 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES
COULD BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT IT WILL STILL BE A COLD DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...SETTING UP LIGHTER WINDS...AND LIKELY A VERY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. SOME SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES
ARE EVEN POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS.
A WARMER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AGAIN LATER IN
THE DAY MONDAY. SO TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A REBOUND DURING THE
DAY. HOWEVER...THE BETTER WARMTH WILL NOT SET UP UNTIL TUESDAY. AN
ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SETTING UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE
MUCH WARMER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO TUESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID
WEEK. HOWEVER...OVERALL...PREFER THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY WARM DAY
FOR MOST OF THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO BE
WELL INTO THE 50S...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE LAKE. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS AREAS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...LIKELY IN THE LOWER 40S...DUE TO AN EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT OFF THE LAKE.
THE STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS TIMING AND TRACK WOULD FAVOR THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A VERY MILD NIGHT...POTENTIALLY EVEN
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...THE THREAT
FOR ANY SNOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK APPEARS THAT IT COULD PRODUCE AND DRIVE YET
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEK
AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE EVEN LARGER DISCREPANCIES WITH
AMONGST THE FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR WARMER
WEATHER INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR DROPS BACK
ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* MODERATELY STRONG/GUSTY NE WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
* LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS LINGERING THROUGH MORNING AT ORD
* SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
IZZI/BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
SYNOPTIC SNOWS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
OFF THE LAKE. AXIS OF CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY PIVOT
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AND PROBABLY NORTH OF ORD/DPA AND
EVENTUALLY RFD...IF NOT DRIER AIR UPSTREAM COULD LIMIT CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT SOME. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN WHEN/IF MVFR CIGS CLEAR
IS LOW. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER STRONG WITH GUSTS IN
THE 20-30KT RANGE THIS MORNING PROBABLY EASING TO CLOSER TO 20KT
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AND LOSING GUSTS EARLY
THIS EVENING.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIG TRENDS TODAY
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OTHER ELEMENTS
IZZI/BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR. MODERATELY STRONG SE WINDS POSSIBLE. -SHRA POSSIBLE
AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF -RA. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
251 AM CDT
FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THIS
MORNING OVER THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE LAKE SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE INCHES CLOSER TO
REGION AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY FRESHEN UP MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW. FAIRLY
STRONG LOW AND FORMIDABLE SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT COULD ALLOW
FOR A PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN A
BIT LATE IN THE WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
702 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
00Z models continue to trend further south with surface low
pressure and associated qpf fields over southern areas today.
Therefore continue to lower pops and qpf/snowfall amounts over
southern counties today. A light snow band nw of the IL river has
produced between a half to 1 inch the past several hours from Knox,
Stark and Marshall counties nw toward the Quad Cities. RUC/HRRR
models diminish this light snow band over the IL river valley
through mid morning/15Z and any additional snow accumulations
should be less than 1 inch as it weakens.
1003 mb low pressure over west central AR while 1037 mb high
pressure was near the MN/Canadian border. Very tight pressure
gradient over IL between these systems giving gusty ne winds as
high as 35 to 43 mph over central IL early this morning. RUC and
NAM models show these higher wind gusts of 35-45 mph shifting
ssw by midday so strongest winds over central IL during the
morning and not quite as strong in the afternoon hours. Still
think shy of wind advisory criteria though a few spots could reach
sustained around 30 mph or a bit higher and/or wind gusts near 45
mph. Low pressure to track east across northern MS/AL today and
keep brunt of heavier pcpn south of IL. Have chance of mixed
precip this morning southern areas and mainly just chance of light
snow se IL this afternoon and ending by late today as low pressure
system pulls away from IL.
Much colder today and little temperature rise and se IL may even
see temps slipping during the day into the lower 30s. Clouds
decreasing over the IL river valley this afternoon and over rest
of area during the evening with diminishing winds. Cold lows in
the mid to upper teens tonight with southeast IL around 20F.
Nice warmup in store Mon and especially Tue with upper 50s and
lower 60s possible Tue afternoon. 995 mb low pressure passes nw of
IL Tue night and brings a cold front east through the state with
chance of rain showers and diminishing already during Wed. Temps
cool just a bit behind this system Wed/Thu but still could see
highs in upper 40s to mid 50s.
LONG TERM...Thursday night through Sunday
Milder temps return Friday with breezy southerly winds and highs
back into the upper 50s and lower 60s with even mid 60s se of I-70.
Low pressure passes to north of central IL again Fri/Fri night
brining a cold front through Friday night and next chance of rain
showers Fri and Fri night. Canadian high pressure building down
into the Midwest this weekend to bring colder temperatures back to
the region.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 655 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Strong northeast winds the main concern today along with areas of
light snow and briefly lower cigs...especially around Peoria south
to near Springfield this morning. Northeast winds of 25 to 35 mph
with gusts as high as 45 mph at times will continue through this
morning with a gradual decrease in winds this afternoon and esp
this evening as high pressure settles into our area. MVFR cigs
will continue for a few more hours at PIA before conditions start
to improve for late morning thru the afternoon hours. SPI is going
to be right on the edge of the MVFR cigs so for now will continue
with VFR conditions there with snow, if any, expected to be light
enough not to bring the cigs down. VFR conditions are expected
across the entire area tonight as high pressure settles in.
Smith
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1043 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
AREAL FLOOD WATCH ALONG THE ROCK RIVER FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ICE
JAMS/ICE ACTION INDUCED FLOODING EXTENDED THROUGH MON EVENING/00Z
TUE. AS FOR THE FORECAST...STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
WRAPPING AROUND NORTH SIDE OF AR CYCLONE INDUCING CU ROW FIELDS
OFF LK MICHIGAN. EVEN SOME FLURRIES GETTING WRUNG OUT OF THIS
ACTIVITY...SOME OF WHICH IS MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST TO GET INTO THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OR MORE OF THE DVN CWA.
THUS HAVE INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THOSE AREAS WITH A MENTION OF
FLURRIES. THESE CLOUDS MAY ALSO HAMPER WARM UP POTENTIAL IN THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA...IF THEY LAST THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEPENING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
EFFECT IT HAS ON THESE CU ROWS AND FLURRIES. THUS MAYBE SOME
DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..12..
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE LOW IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA
DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH A STRONGER LOW
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA-ARKANSAS BORDER. IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES
NOTED BEHIND THE TWO SYSTEMS STRETCHING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ALSO EVIDENT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI LOW. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE TWO FGEN BANDS OF SNOW THAT WERE ALONG
I-80 AND ALONG A LINE FROM CENTERVILLE IOWA TO WASHINGTON AROUND
MIDNIGHT HAVE MERGED INTO ONE MAIN BAND OF SNOW STRETCHING FROM
CENTERVILLE IOWA THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES AT 0730Z. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN REDUCED DOWN TO A THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE AT TIMES WITH
A HALF INCH OF SNOW RECORDED AT THE NWS OFFICE IN DAVENPORT AT
06Z. AT 2AM...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER
30S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON SNOW CHANCES THIS MORNING THEN ON CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
SNOW TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LATEST RAP TRENDS AND TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS SHOW FORCING WEAKENING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH
SNOW DISSIPATING AND EXITING THE FAR SOUTH BY LATE MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-80 WITH
A FEW AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS. TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH ARE CURRENTLY AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING SO ANTICIPATE SNOW TO ACCUMULATE MAINLY ON
ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES IN THESE AREAS. AFTER THE SNOW
ENDS...COLD AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS
ALONG WITH CAA IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORTWAVE TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
MOST OF THE CWA SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY NOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE STRENGTHENING MID-
MARCH SUN SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE MODEL
GUIDANCE THUS WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
TODAY. THIS IS ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID MARCH.
TONIGHT...QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST INTO MICHIGAN. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS BY MONDAY MORNING. IF ANY SNOW
REMAINS FROM THIS MORNING/S EVENT THEN TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH CONTINUE TO APPEAR AT TWO DAYS OF CONTINUAL
WARM ADVECTION...LARGELY WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE. THUS...A SOUTH
BREEZE OF 15 TO 20 MPH FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
FORECAST...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING
TUESDAY. WE MAY NEED TO MELT OFF SOME SNOW ON MONDAY ....BUT GIVEN
SOME SUN TODAY AND MONDAY...IT SHOULD BE EASILY MELTED OFF BY MID
MORNING...WITH MODEST HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST FORECAST. MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF FALL BELOW FREEZING
SHOULD OCCUR IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST...BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RISE LATE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BREEZY AND
MILD TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE FAST MOVING STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS/NAM/UKMET ALL TAKE THE ENERGY AND LOW WELL NORTH OF THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
TRACK OVER OUR CWA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL
SHOWING THIS...AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT YET. STILL...A DRY TUESDAY
LOOKS MOST LIKELY...GIVEN THE WEAK MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WAA.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...IN EITHER POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...OR THROUGH A
SOUTHERN TRACKING ECMWF DEFORMATION ZONE...WE SHOULD GET OUT MAIN
PCPN THREAT. THIS LOOKS TO BE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS WE GO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE WEST
AND STILL QUITE BREEZY...AT LEAST 15 MPH IF NOT 20 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH GUST LIKELY OVER 30 MPH.
THURSDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...MODELS LOOSE CONSISTENCY AS THEY HAVE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE SEVERAL PASSING
WEAKER SYSTEMS...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IF WHICH RELATES TO FRIDAY. A
CHANCE FOR RAIN IS INCLUDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
THIS...ALMOST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM. GIVEN THAT IT IS MARCH...AND WE
SHOULD NOT HAVE SNOW COVER TO DEAL WITH MID TO LATE WEEK...THESE
SYSTEMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP AHEAD OF
THEM...LIKELY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. TIMING OF THEM WILL BE VERY
HARD...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT LEADING TO A MUCH HIGHER THAN
NORMAL PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURE FORECAST BUSTS.
ERVIN
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW TO COME TO AN END AT THE BRL TERMINAL
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL TAF SITES BEFORE GRADUAL
CLEARING TAKES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AOA 25 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS TO
DIMINISH BELOW 10 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR HENRY IL-ROCK ISLAND-
WHITESIDE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...12
SYNOPSIS...GROSS
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
654 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE LOW IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA
DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH A STRONGER LOW
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA-ARKANSAS BORDER. IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES
NOTED BEHIND THE TWO SYSTEMS STRETCHING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ALSO EVIDENT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI LOW. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE TWO FGEN BANDS OF SNOW THAT WERE ALONG
I-80 AND ALONG A LINE FROM CENTERVILLE IOWA TO WASHINGTON AROUND
MIDNIGHT HAVE MERGED INTO ONE MAIN BAND OF SNOW STRETCHING FROM
CENTERVILLE IOWA THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES AT 0730Z. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN REDUCED DOWN TO A THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE AT TIMES WITH
A HALF INCH OF SNOW RECORDED AT THE NWS OFFICE IN DAVENPORT AT
06Z. AT 2AM...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER
30S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON SNOW CHANCES THIS MORNING THEN ON CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
SNOW TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LATEST RAP TRENDS AND TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS SHOW FORCING WEAKENING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH
SNOW DISSIPATING AND EXITING THE FAR SOUTH BY LATE MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-80 WITH
A FEW AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS. TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH ARE CURRENTLY AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING SO ANTICIPATE SNOW TO ACCUMULATE MAINLY ON
ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES IN THESE AREAS. AFTER THE SNOW
ENDS...COLD AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS
ALONG WITH CAA IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORTWAVE TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
MOST OF THE CWA SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY NOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE STRENGTHENING MID-
MARCH SUN SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE MODEL
GUIDANCE THUS WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
TODAY. THIS IS ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID MARCH.
TONIGHT...QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST INTO MICHIGAN. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS BY MONDAY MORNING. IF ANY SNOW
REMAINS FROM THIS MORNING/S EVENT THEN TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH CONTINUE TO APPEAR AT TWO DAYS OF CONTINUAL
WARM ADVECTION...LARGELY WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE. THUS...A SOUTH
BREEZE OF 15 TO 20 MPH FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
FORECAST...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING
TUESDAY. WE MAY NEED TO MELT OFF SOME SNOW ON MONDAY ....BUT GIVEN
SOME SUN TODAY AND MONDAY...IT SHOULD BE EASILY MELTED OFF BY MID
MORNING...WITH MODEST HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST FORECAST. MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF FALL BELOW FREEZING
SHOULD OCCUR IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST...BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RISE LATE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BREEZY AND
MILD TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE FAST MOVING STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS/NAM/UKMET ALL TAKE THE ENERGY AND LOW WELL NORTH OF THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
TRACK OVER OUR CWA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL
SHOWING THIS...AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT YET. STILL...A DRY TUESDAY
LOOKS MOST LIKELY...GIVEN THE WEAK MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WAA.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...IN EITHER POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...OR THROUGH A
SOUTHERN TRACKING ECMWF DEFORMATION ZONE...WE SHOULD GET OUT MAIN
PCPN THREAT. THIS LOOKS TO BE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS WE GO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE WEST
AND STILL QUITE BREEZY...AT LEAST 15 MPH IF NOT 20 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH GUST LIKELY OVER 30 MPH.
THURSDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...MODELS LOOSE CONSISTENCY AS THEY HAVE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE SEVERAL PASSING
WEAKER SYSTEMS...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IF WHICH RELATES TO FRIDAY. A
CHANCE FOR RAIN IS INCLUDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
THIS...ALMOST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM. GIVEN THAT IT IS MARCH...AND WE
SHOULD NOT HAVE SNOW COVER TO DEAL WITH MID TO LATE WEEK...THESE
SYSTEMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP AHEAD OF
THEM...LIKELY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. TIMING OF THEM WILL BE VERY
HARD...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT LEADING TO A MUCH HIGHER THAN
NORMAL PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURE FORECAST BUSTS.
ERVIN
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW TO COME TO AN END AT THE BRL TERMINAL
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL TAF SITES BEFORE GRADUAL
CLEARING TAKES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AOA 25 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS TO
DIMINISH BELOW 10 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR HENRY IL-ROCK ISLAND-
WHITESIDE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GROSS
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
551 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
08Z water vapor imagery shows a shortwave lifting east northeast
through the ARKLATEX region with some energy left behind over ELP.
Also a shortwave trough was noted swinging through eastern NEB.
Surface obs indicate a low pressure center near the ARKLATEX as well
with 3 hr pressure rises across northeast KS around 4 MB. Profiler
data suggests the 850 MB front has moved through most of not all of
the forecast area.
Now that the 850 front has moved through, models indicate dry air
will continue to advect south through the morning. And once the
shortwave trough axis over NEB passes to the east, there should not
be much in the way of forcing for precip. Regional radar has some
light returns across southeast NEB, but this is likely just trace
amounts or flurries with the NEB WFOs getting reports of a dusting
or light accumulations on cars. Therefore the forecast has things
winding down through the morning. The 00Z NAM has backed off on the
strength of the pressure gradient from earlier runs and while
sustained speeds have only flirted with 30 MPH, there have still
been an occasional gust over 40 MPH. Because of this will likely
keep the southern half of the wind advisory going this morning.
However if the pressure gradient weakens enough, we may be able to
cancel it before noon. Models show the boundary layer mixing to
around 850 MB this afternoon. Since there isn`t a great deal of cold
air with the front and the prospects for some good insolation across
north central KS this afternoon, have highs forecast to warm into
the lower and middle 40s. Cloud cover hanging on longer into the
afternoon across far eastern KS is expected to keep afternoon highs
in the upper 30s or around 40. Lows tonight will again be tricky
with skies clearing out and a weak ridge axis passing over the area.
Winds switch around to the south and gradually increase overnight
across north central KS. Think this may aid mixing of the boundary
layer and keep lows in the upper 20s. Elsewhere along the KS river
valley and over east central KS, the ridge axis is expected to keep
winds light for a longer period of the night allowing radiational
cooling to drop lows into the lower 20s especially in the areas
prone to seeing large drops in temps once the wind goes calm.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
Overall drier weather pattern in the extended forecast as a series
of disturbances originating from the Pacific keep higher
precipitation chances further north. Gusty winds continue
throughout the week.
Monday is on track to be a more pleasantly warm day as high pressure
shifts off to the east as southwest winds respond to a developing
surface trough over the western high plains. Wind gusts range
between 20 and 30 mph during the afternoon as dewpoint temperatures
mix into the 20s to low 30s. Decent southwest flow at h85 across
north central KS should pull temps warmer above previous guidance
near 70. Further east, the slightly weaker warm advection limit
readings to the 60s. These conditions will set the area up for very
high fire danger conditions again in the afternoon as minimum
humidity values fall in the low and middle 20s.
Surface trough becomes a closed low as it phases with the
approaching upper wave by Monday evening. Expect southerly winds to
remain gusty Monday evening into Tuesday as the wave passes to our
north, forcing another cold front through Tuesday. 15 to 25 mph
sustained winds from the southwest overnight switch to the west and
northwest behind the front entering north central KS late Tuesday
afternoon. Speeds increase between 20 and 30 mph sustained through
at least midnight Wednesday before gradient wanes. Models are
continuing to trend warmer Tuesday with the increasing warm
advection ahead of the front, however some uncertainty on the
strength of the thermal ridge ahead of the boundary which could
raise current forecast highs in the lower to middle 60s. Slight
chances for rain were mentioned on Tuesday and Tuesday evening for
locations near the Kansas and Nebraska border. The latest ECMWF,
GEM, and SREF indicate upper forcing combined with some saturation
could stretch into our area, however confidence in this occurrence
is low based on high cloud bases and lack of good saturation on
model soundings.
Precipitation chances become less certain Wednesday through Saturday
as zonal flow brings a series embedded disturbances, varied in
timing from each model run. The ECMWF tries to bring another weak
wave behind the exiting trough Wednesday evening while the GFS
depicts ridging and subsidence behind the trough. Will leave dry for
now as this is the first run of the ECMWF depicting this solution.
Somewhat better congruency on Thursday evening into Friday as another
shortwave trough enters the central plains. Have continued to side
with the ECMWF placing the better forcing further north. Soundings
from the GFS depict little moisture available, however with a cold
frontal passage expected Friday, will continue to monitor trends as
there could be some forcing for precip along the boundary. A
stronger upper trough begins to organize off the CA coast by
Saturday with major discrepancies on timing of minor waves ejecting
ahead into northeast Kansas. Have continued a dry forecast for now,
but would not be surprised if better precip chances return at the
end of the week. Passing cold front on Tuesday and Friday will only
cool highs slightly will overall readings through the week in the
50s and 60s. Overnight lows range in the 30s to low 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 551 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
Models seem to be handling the light snow band pretty well, which
is expected to exit to the east of TOP and FOE by 15Z. Only trace
amounts have been reported so am not anticipating a major impact
from the light snow. Bigger concern is the MVFR stratus. The
latest RAP wants to hold the back edge of the stratus in the
vicinity of TOP and FOE. Meanwhile most other guidance shows the
low level moisture eroding to the east and south. Will delay the
stratus scattering out at TOP and FOE because of the RAP, but am
not ready to keep MVFR CIGS for most of the day given the surface
low will move east this afternoon and dewpoints across IA and NEB
are in the teens implying the low level dry air should eventually
move into northeast KS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until Noon CDT today FOR KSZ026-035>040-054>056-
058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1032 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Rain working in from the southwest has overspread our southern
forecast area, yet is trying to overcome dry air across the northern
third of the CWA. As this occurs, surface temperatures are trending
down as we wetbulb. Dewpoints across our northern half are generally
in the low to middle 20s. Gusty northeast winds continue to try to
advect colder air in here. Temperatures are at or below freezing
just to our northeast. So, with some advection combined with
wetbulbing, temperatures should continue to cool through the morning
and afternoon hours. Latest aircraft soundings indicate a very warm
layer of about +7C at about 870 hPa. Have not come across a sounding
with a dewpoint curve though. Models generally have this warm nose
and cool it rather quickly (wetbulbing) as they indicate quite a bit
of dry air at that level.
Afternoon still looks good for a changeover from rain to a mix,
though may have to fine tune that as the day progresses. The 12Z NAM
has arrived and has shifted the main precip band a little farther
north, which lines up more with 06Z GFS. These place the
accumulations along the Ohio River and eastward into the northern
Bluegrass region. Still think snow and sleet amounts these spit out
are a bit high in places. Watching the RAP this morning shows it
ever so slightly fluctuating by about the width of a county or two
between a southern and northern snow/sleet band. However, this band
is farther south than the NAM and GFS, placing the best
accumulations south of the Ohio River. The SREF probabilities have
seemed to be the most consistent and is what was leaned toward
yesterday. With the 09Z SREF data having just rolled in, it still
depicts the best accumulation potential from Perry County in Indiana
east-northeastward to Harrison/Nicholas Counties in Kentucky. The
SREF seems to capture the slightly more northern GFS/NAM and
southern RAP/NMM.
Given this data, see no reason to make any changes to the running
forecast at this point, just a few minor updates in the very near
term. The Advisory will stand as is for now. Believe our northern
most counties in Indiana (Washington, Scott, Jefferson) still have a
chance to pick up around an inch across their south. Our far
southeast, Casey and Lincoln Counties in Kentucky still have a
chance to pick up around an inch in their north.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
...Accumulating Snow Expected This Afternoon and Tonight...
After a beautiful warm day on Saturday, today will bring quite a big
change as wintry weather returns for (hopefully) one last hurrah. A
surface low over Arkansas this morning will track east across the
northern portions of the Gulf Coast states today and this evening. A
large precipitation shield associated with this low will spread into
south central KY by around daybreak or just before and then spread
northward through the morning hours.
Precipitation type is still a challenge with this system. The
forecast hinges on how much cold air will be drawn into the area
today on the northern side of the low pressure system. Central
Indiana this morning has fallen into the mid to upper 30s, so there
is cold air to the north of the forecast area. Additionally, there
is a warm layer aloft that will slowly cool through the day. As
mentioned in previous discussions, this warm layer is not as robust
as in previous systems and therefore will likely not result in
complete melting aloft. This may lead to some sleet as precipitation
transitions from rain to snow from north to south today.
The other challenge with this system is the models are still in some
disagreement as to where a heavier band of precipitation will set
up. The GFS is the farthest north with this band and has it along
the Ohio River while the NAM has it between the Parkways and the
Euro has it across south central KY. Some of the higher resolution
models paint the band just south of the Ohio River into the
Bluegrass region, and this seems a reasonable consensus.
Taking everything into consideration, the forecast remains fairly
close to the previous forecast. It looks like there will be a mix of
rain/snow/sleet across southern Indiana and far north central KY
this morning if the precipitation moves in there that fast. The
transition line will sink southward through the afternoon hours and
into this evening as the colder air filters in. Drier air will
filter in fairly quickly on the back side of the system tonight,
though some lingering freezing drizzle around the Lake Cumberland
area may be possible late tonight. Dry conditions are expected
tomorrow.
Snow totals are tricky given the possibility of sleet and the fact
that initially there will likely be some melting with the antecedent
warm ground. Accumulations will be most likely on grassy and
elevated surfaces, but if there are some heavier bursts of snow
roads may become slick at times. Lowered snow totals just a bit.
Most areas in the Advisory look to receive around an inch with 1-2
inches in the Bluegrass region. Some locally higher amounts are
certainly not out of the question, however. Falling temperatures
tonight also may lead to some slick spots on roadways for the
morning commute Monday.
In addition to the precipitation, winds will become gusty today as
the pressure gradient tightens up across the area. Sustained winds
of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph can be expected.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
A fairly nice work week is in store with overall temps slightly
above normal for a change. The northern stream will remain active
this coming week pushing weak cold fronts through our region Wed and
Fri Night/Sat. Ridging will control the region Tues drawing warm
air northward and allowing temps to rise into the upper 50s and
lower 60s for highs. Tues night the frontal boundary will approach
the area bringing a chance for rain showers late Tues night or Wed.
Long range models vary on timing slightly so will stick with current
forecast for consistency which matches the last few runs of the
ECMWF best. The next front looks to come through sometime Fri night
or Sat. Still a good range in timing/strength amongst models with
this front as well. At this point, neither fronts this week look
too strong or look to contain a great amount of moisture. Think
that light rain showers will likely accompany both fronts. A t-storm
or two may also be possible. Winds may become gusty on either side
of the fronts especially Wed and Sat. Wind gusts in the 20-30 mph
look likely on these days.
As for temps, the area will be in the upper 50s/lower 60s for highs
most of the week. Friday will be a bit warmer, though, in the mid
to upper 60s (maybe even some low 70s) for highs as a strong
southerly wind brings in warmer temps. Low temps will range
throughout the 30s and 40s this week.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Winds have already started to become gusty this morning as a low
pressure system passes the area to the south. Winds through the day
will be out of the northeast and sustained from 10-20 knots with
gusts to around 25-30 knots. Winds will relax a bit tonight, but
still remain gusty.
Rain will overspread the area this morning. Ceilings are expected to
lower to MVFR with this rain. BWG may see IFR ceilings for awhile as
well. Rain will change over to snow at LEX and SDF this evening as
colder air filters in. Precipitation will move out late this evening
into the overnight hours. This should bring some improvement to
ceilings and visibilities.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon
to 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday FOR KYZ023>025-028>043-
045>049-053>057-066-067.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon
to 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........MJP
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
539 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS DEEP EAST INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA TO BEGIN
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY 15Z.
EXPECT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS...STRONG WIND AND SEVERE TURBULENCE WITH
THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AND STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH 17/12Z. THE STRONG
WIND WILL RESULT IN MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE TODAY WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO 17/03Z BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. SURFACE WIND
TODAY NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. /14/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...
QUITE A FEW CHALLENGES IN THE FCST FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. LET US SEE
HOW MANY I CAN COVER IN THIS AFD. FIRST...POPS FOR TODAY. BULK OF
THE CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE AREA. NEW CLUSTER HAS DEVELOP ACROSS
DEEP E TX OVER THE LAST FEW HRS. RADAR TRENDS AND 06Z HRRR SUGGEST
THIS LINE WILL PERSIST INTO OUR LA PARISHES SO HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 15Z AND THEN BEGAN TO TAPER POPS FROM W TO E
BEYOND THAT TIME. REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS LARGELY BEEN DRY
SLOTTED BUT AREAS N OF I-30...PARTICULARLY SE OK/EXTREME SW AR
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT SEEING SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SFC LOW. LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING SE ACROSS TX MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHWRS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA BUT EFFECTS OF DRY SLOTTING MAY BE TOO MUCH
TO OVERCOME. HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE DRIER NAM SOLUTION.
NEXT...WINDS TODAY. NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO REALLY PICK UP LATER
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA AND THEN ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SPEEDS SHOULD BE OVER
LAKE WIND ADV CRITERIA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING SO THE ADVISORY WILL RUN UNTIL 06Z
TONIGHT.
THIRD...TEMPS TODAY. THE STRONG NWLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS TODAY SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z-13Z. DELAY OF THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD AIR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING GENERALLY SE OF A KLFK-KMLU LINE BEFORE
18Z...BEYOND WHICH TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE.
FOURTH...POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIP TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH MANY LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REACHED OR ARE
NEAR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATES WINTER WEATHER CAN STILL HAPPEN IN
THIS REGION THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS
ARE LIKELY NORTH OF A KOSA-KELD LINE. MORE NLY COMPONENT TO LOW
LVL WINDS STILL KEEP CONFIDENCE HIGHER IN COLD AIR DAMMING BY THE
OUACHITAS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
SRN AR TO SUPPORT A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW. BESIDES
THE ISSUE OF HAVING ENOUGH COLD AIR TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIP
TYPES...THERE IS STILL A QUESTION REGARDING IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE AREA FOR PRECIP. MODELS MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT QPF
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FCST. IF WINTRY PRECIP DOES OCCUR...IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL.
TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE BY TUESDAY
DUE TO STRONG SLY FLOW AND WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FAST MOVING FRONT
DUE TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY. ECMWF STILL FCSTING QPF WITH THIS
FRONT BUT DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TIME FOR SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURN TO SUPPORT ANY RAIN CHANCES. TEMPS MAY BE KNOCKED
BACK DOWN BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CHANCES FOR RAIN NOT EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 60 37 58 40 73 / 30 20 10 10 10
MLU 66 36 53 36 72 / 30 20 10 10 10
DEQ 56 30 56 34 71 / 50 20 10 10 10
TXK 57 35 54 40 71 / 40 20 10 10 10
ELD 58 32 55 36 72 / 40 20 10 10 10
TYR 57 35 57 43 75 / 30 10 10 10 10
GGG 58 35 57 41 73 / 30 10 10 10 10
LFK 62 37 57 39 75 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ059-070-071.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-060-061-072-073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001-002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ003>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ152-153-165>167.
&&
$$
14/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
725 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF
OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN PERSISTENT DEEP UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR
JAMES BAY AND MEAN UPR RDG OVER THE W. IN THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS THAT IS DOMINATING ERN CANADA AND THE NE CONUS...00Z H5/H85
TEMPS WERE AS LO AS -45C/-26C AT MOOSONEE AT THE S END OF JAMES BAY.
SFC HI PRES UNDER THE CONFLUENT UPR FLOW IS MOVING INTO NW MN EARLY
THIS MRNG. THE STEADY N WIND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS ADVECTING
COLDER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS. DESPITE THE LLVL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS...WHERE THE PWAT WAS 0.05 AND 0.04
INCH RESPECTIVELY OR ONLY 25 PCT OF NORMAL...GENERAL ACYC NATURE OF
THE LLVL FLOW...AND THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP...SOME SCT LK
CLDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE U.P. BUT AT SOME OF THE
COLDER SPOTS OVER THE WRN INTERIOR...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHTER
WINDS AND THE VERY DRY AIR HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO FALL WELL BLO ZERO.
TO THE W OF THE SFC HI IN THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA...WAD BTWN
THE HI CENTER AND A SHRTV DROPPING SE OVER THE UPR RDG INTO SCNTRL
CANADA IS BRINGING LOTS OF CLDS AND SOME LGT SN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPS FOR TODAY AND THEN
CLD TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS TNGT AS WELL AS CHC FOR SN LATER TNGT
OVER THE W.
TODAY...ARCTIC HI PRES CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SE OVER UPR MI
TODAY AND TO NEAR TRAVERSE CITY BY 00Z MON. EXPECT ANY LK CLDS OVER
THE NRN TIER THIS MRNG TO DISSIPATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HI AND
DIURNAL HEATING. MIXING TO ABOUT H875 AS OBSVD UPSTREAM YDAY ON FCST
SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS REACHING THE 20-25 RANGE NEAR THE WI BORDER
AWAY FM ANY LK COOLING/ICE COVER.
TNGT...AS THE ARCTIC HI CENTER SHIFTS INTO SE ONTARIO BY 12Z MON AND
A SHRTWV SLIDING ESEWD IN THE WNW FLOW ALF ARND PERSISTENT UPR TROF
OVER QUEBEC MOVES TO NEAR LK WINNIPEG...DEEP...LARGER SCALE SSW
FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 280-290K SFCS /H8-6/ WL
RESULT IN INCRSG CLDS W-E. ALTHOUGH SOME LGT SN MAY REACH THE WRN
CWA LATE UNDER THE DEEPENING SATURATION/MORE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF 100KT H3 JET MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV...TENACIOUS DRIER LLVL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ONLY SLOW
MOVING SFC HI PRES OVER SE ONTARIO HELD IN PLACE BY NW FLOW ON THE
WRN FLANK OF QUEBEC TROF SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE LAND CWA DRY THRU
THE NGT. MIN TEMPS WL BE LOWEST OVER THE E HALF CLOSER TO THE SFC
HI...WHERE WINDS WL BE LIGHTER AND WAD CLDS WL ARRIVE THE LATEST...
HELPING TO MAINTAIN PWAT AS LO AS 40-50 PCT OF NORMAL AT NEWBERRY
THRU 12Z MON. INCRSG CLDS AND DOWNSLOPE S WINDS OVER THE W NEAR LK
SUP WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP THERE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
FOCUS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK IS ON LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT LIFTS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BUT
FIRST THINGS FIRST AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLSN MAY OCCUR ON
MONDAY OVER AT LEAST NORTHWEST CWA.
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NOSING ACROSS CNTRL ALBERTA SHOWING UP WELL ON
WV LOOP. WAVE DIGS ESE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN SLIDES TO THE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR IN ONTARIO BY MONDAY EVENING.
ALL THE MAIN MODELS SHOW A LOT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIFT
OCCURRING WITHIN THE DGZ. MAIN ISSUE IS LOW-LEVEL RH AS THERE IS
SIGNAL THAT DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP MUCH SNOW FM REACHING THE
EASTERN CWA. STRONGEST LIFT VIA THE WAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280-290K SFCS /H8-H6/ OCCURS OVER NW CWA...VCNTY
OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA. MIXING RATIOS TO 2G/KG AT H7 AND THE FOCUSED
LARGER SCALE FORCING POINT TO ACCUMULATING SNOW FM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID-LATE AFTN. IN ADDITION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 20
MPH MAY RESULT IN PATCHY BLSN AS WELL. POTENTIAL THAT BETTER
FORCING/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY EVEN BUMP FARTHER NORTH AS ECMWF AND
NAM SHOWS...SO WILL NOT GO WITH LIKELY POPS QUITE YET...BUT WILL SHOW
HIGHER POP GRADIENT WITH HIGH CHANCES NW WITH SLIGHT CHANCES TO NO
MENTION OF POPS OVER SOUTH AND EAST CWA. TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING
TREND WITH UPR 20S WEST AND LOWER 20S EAST THOUGH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL PROVIDE A BITE TO THE WARMER TEMPS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS PRIMARY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. HINT THERE MAY BE A LEAD
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMING ACROSS UPR LAKES ON MONDAY
EVENING. ECMWF STRONGEST BUT GEM-NH AND EVEN GFS SHOW SOMETHING
SIMILAR. BUMPED POPS TO CHANCE IN THE EVENING FOR MAINLY WEST HALF.
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BETTER FORCING TAKES SHAPE TO THE
WEST MAINLY OVER MINNESOTA ALONG SFC-H85 TROUGH AXIS AND WITHIN
DEVELOPING AREA OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AND DIVERGENCE FM RIGHT ENTRANCE
JET FORCING. NET RESULT IS SHARPER EDGE OF MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
BY TUESDAY. KEPT CHANCES BANKED OVER FAR WEST CWA...WHILE LOWER H85
RH SHOULD KEEP REST OF CWA MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...BARRING ANY MORE
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH. SHIELD OF THICKER MID CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S MOST AREAS...THOUGH A RUN INTO THE LOWER 40S
COULD OCCUR OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST IF CLOUDS THIN OUT.
NOW ONTO THE PRIMARY SYSTEM OF THIS WEEK. SFC PATTERN AND MODEL
FORECAST H85 TEMPS SHOW WARM LAYER WILL BE FACTOR LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND AS 250MB DIVERGENCE INCREASES ATOP STRONG WARM AND MOIST
ADVECTION IN LOW-LEVELS. PERIOD OF MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE FROM 09Z-18Z WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SFC-H85 LOW FURTHER BOOSTING PRECIP TOTALS ALONG
LK SUPERIOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT EXACTLY WHERE IS THE QUESTION.
CURRENTLY THE LINE BETWEEN SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION /SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN BOTH POSSIBLE BASED ON SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB AND
850-700MB THICKNESSES/ IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER CNTRL CWA. MODELS
HAVE SHOWN TYPICAL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES AND ARE ALSO NOT
AGREEING WELL WITH EACH OTHER AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK UNTIL THE SYSTEM /WHICH IS STILL COMING TOGETHER
OVER THE PACIFIC TO THE SOUTH OF ALASKA AND WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ IS THOROUGHLY SAMPLED BY RAOB NETWORK AND THE MODELS
ULTIMATELY GET HANDLE ON WHERE THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK. LATEST MODELS
HAVE OVERALL TRENDED FARTHER EAST WITH SFC LOW AND COOLER WITH H85
TEMPS. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY LARGE CHANGES TO PTYPE IN GRIDS.
FOLLOWING BLEND OF PREVIOUS MODELS LOCATION OF SFC LOW AND WARM
LAYER...KEPT MENTION OF ALL PTYPES IN FOR WEDNESDAY OVER THE EAST
CWA...WHILE MAINLY HAVE A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET FOR CNTRL CWA...AND
ONLY SNOW IN THE WESTERN CWA.
BEYOND THE SYSTEM...LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW IN WAKE OF THE SFC LOW
AND UPR LAKES IN VICINITY OF TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP ON COLD SIDE OF SYSTEM PERSISTING WELL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TURNED ALL PCPN BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z THURSDAY. THEN...SMALL CHANCES
FOR SNOW SHOWERS JUSTIFIED FOR AT LEAST FIRST PART OF THURSDAY WITH
HIGHER 1000-850MB RH AND WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW. FOR BOTH OF THESE
PERIODS...INCREASED POPS OVER WHAT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWED.
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS FROM OHIO VALLEY ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES
IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING
AFFECTS FM CLOUDS OR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOULD WANE...ALLOWING FOR
TEMPS TO FALL OFF OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PREFERRED ECMWF
SHOWING MORE NW FLOW ALOFT VERSUS GFS WHICH TENDS TO FLATTEN THE
FLOW TOO QUICK. THUS...DISCOUNTED FARTHER NORTH QPF THAT GFS SHOWS
IMPACTING SOUTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS 06Z FRIDAY. SEEMS MUCH TOO QUICK
AND TOO FAR NORTH. LATEST ECMWF DID BUMP FARTHER NORTH WITH WAVE
MOVING THROUGH...SO KEPT CONSENSUS SMALL CHANCES FOR FAR SCNTRL CWA
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
REST OF EXTENDED FEATURES NW FLOW IN LOW-LEVELS BTWN DEVELOPING LOW
FOR THE NORTHEAST AND SFC HIGH CNTRL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. 15MAR
12Z RUN OF ECMWF WAS SHOWING ANOTHER PUSH OF CHILLY AIR WITH H85
TEMPS NEARING -20C. THOUGH GEM-NH LOOKS LIKE THE GFS FRIDAY BEYOND
THAT IT ALSO SHOWS A COLD PLUNGE BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL NO MATTER WHAT MODEL IS FAVORED...NO SIGNIFCANT OR LASTING
WARM UPS ARE SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
ANY LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS AT SAW EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO VFR WX AS HI PRES SLIDES ACROSS UPR MI TDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WL
BE INCRSG HI/MID CLDS TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING SLY
FLOW/SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HI AND A DISTURBANCE
APRCHG FM THE W...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS. AS THE WINDS INCRS ABV A SFC BASED STABLE LYR...MARGINAL
LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS INTO TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING HI PRES
CENTER WILL BECOME S AND INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MON UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING HI TO
THE E AND A LO PRES DEVELOPING IN THE NCENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS MAY DIMINISH LATER MON AND MON NIGHT AS THE HI CENTER SLIPS
FARTHER TO THE E AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...WINDS WILL BACK MORE TO
THE E AND INCREASE UP TO 25-30 KTS ON TUE AS THE PLAINS LO MOVES
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE NW UP TO 25 KTS
ON WED INTO THU ONCE THIS LOW SHIFTS TO THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1115 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES AND COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ESSENTIALLY
WASHED OUT THIS MORNING...WITH A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VA. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AND
COMPLEX...POSITIVELY TILED UPPER TROUGH IS EVOLVING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 1002MB SURFACE LOW
KICKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. AND
EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD IS SPREAD ACROSS GA/SC AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN
NC...WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP NOW ONT HE DOORSTEPS OF THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND WARM
ADVECTION....WILL DRIVE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THERE ARE TWO
MAIN CONCERNS EVOLVING IN THE UPSTREAM RADAR/SATELLITE OBS: 1) A DRY
SLOT SURGING ACROSS NORTHERN AL AND TN AND 2) THE
ORIENTATION/TRACK OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z...WHICH IS WHEN CONFIDENCE IN HIGHEST POPS/QPF OCCURS. THE DRY
SLOT MAY HELP TO CUT DOWN ON PRECIP RATES ACROSS WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA BY AS EARLY AS 21Z...WHILE THE GULF COAST CONVECTION
MAY ACT TO DIRECT THE BEST LOW-LEVEL JETTING AND WARM ADVECTION
TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS. THE LATEST RAP QPF AND HRRR
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY HINT AT THIS...WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL SC AND EASTERN NC. HAVE ADJUST POPS PRIOR TO
NOON TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WITH CATEGORICAL STILL AFTER
NOON. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF LEAD TO NEAR AND INCH IN THE FAR
SOUTH AND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPS ARE LIKELY REACHING THEIR HIGHS FOR TODAY...MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AREAWIDE. EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND SLOWLY STRENGTHENING COLD
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...AS A SURFACE WAVE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL INTO THE 40S
(MAINLY NORTH) THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAINLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ISSUED FOR MIDNIGHT TO NOON MONDAY FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85...
DIFFICULT FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE NWP GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THE END RESULT IS A COMPLEX AND BUSY
FORECAST WITH DIFFERING IMPACTS...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE MINOR TO
MODERATE.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE ONGOING THIS EVENING AT THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 125KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC WITH A PUSH OF CONSIDERABLY
COLDER AND DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL WANE CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS THE BEST FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS DRY OUT. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF .10 INCHES WEST TO
.15 INCHES EAST ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE BASED COLD AIR OVER CENTRAL NC. THE NAM
IS CONSIDERABLY COLDER...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
AND FURTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH
WHICH PROVIDES A CLOSER COLD AIR SOURCE REGION AND WHICH DEVELOPS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PUSH THE COLD/DRY AIR FURTHER
SOUTH. USED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE TO PRODUCE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WHICH FALL TO FREEZING AT AROUND 3 TO 4 AM NEAR THE VA
BORDER. THE NAM GIVES A SFC TEMP OF 26 AT KGSO AT 8AM WHILE THE GFS
GIVES A COLD BUT MORE REASONABLE 29. THE 32 DEGREE SFC TEMP LINE
REACHES AS FAR SOUTH AS LOUISBURG....DURHAM AND HIGH POINT MONDAY
MORNING WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS FURTHER NORTH. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET POSSIBLE WHEN MOISTURE IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE ALOFT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON MONDAY FOR OUR NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 95. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT ON MONDAY AS PRECIP EBBS AND THE SURGE OF
COLD/DRY AIR SUBSIDES. IN ADDITION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET
MEANINGFUL ICE ACCRUAL WITH FREEZING RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
IN MID MARCH AT OUR LATITUDE. SO EXPECT MOST OF THE FREEZING RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TO FALL BETWEEN 4AM AND 9AM WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREE TOPS IN THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND REMOVED FROM THE GROUND WHICH SHOULD BE RADIATING SOME
HEAT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 AT THE VA BORDER
TO THE UPPER 30S TOWARD THE SC BORDER.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRYING ALOFT MOVES IN AND CENTRAL NC IS IN A
REGION OF WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN SYSTEMS. SENSIBLE WEATHER IS BEST
CHARACTERIZED AS CLOUDY SKIES WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WITH POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
SLIGHTLY WITH THE ABSENCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOME INSOLATION
THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 34 NEAR THE VA
BORDER TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE SC BORDER.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES GETTING EVEN COLDER THAN MONDAY MORNING. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF DRIVE THE WET BULB FREEZING LINE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE WBZ LINE SHIFTING
FROM WEST-EAST ON MONDAY MORNING TO MORE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO GO BONKERS BY DEVELOPING AN INTENSE SURFACE LOW NEAR
SAVANNAH AND DRIVES THE LOW NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.
THERE IS ANOTHER PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN SOME SLEET
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE ULTIMATE IMPACT DRIVEN NOT ONLY BY
THE MOUNT OF COLD AIR BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY BY THE QPF. GUIDANCE
DIFFERS WITH THE AMOUNT AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
PERIOD BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 0.10 TO POSSIBLY 0.20 INCHES
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT THAT FALLS ACROSS THE COLDER AND POTENTIALLY
WINTRY WEATHER AREA. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 27
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE TRIAD TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
CONTINUED CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED ON TUESDAY AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF PUSH
A SURFACE WAVE AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WHILE THE NAM APPEARS LOST
BY DRIVING AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER A BIT AND CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
EVERYWHERE BY MID MORNING BEFORE HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACH THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WAVE.
THREE-DAY QPF VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH NEAR THE VA BORDER TO
1.5 INCHES NEAR THE SC BORDER ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
THE NAM/SREF ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. MUCH OF THAT PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
INSUFFICIENT FOR A FLASH FLOOD OR AERIAL FLOOD WATCH. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. -BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THE GFS AND
ECMWF HANDLE THEM DIFFERENTLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...AMPLITUDE...
AND PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL...THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER...AND
COOLER THAN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DESCENT CHANCE THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IT SHOULD BE
ALL LIQUID AND FAIRLY LIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES AND
RESULTANT UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE FROPA ON SATURDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE
COLD AIR WEDGE...PRESENT IN BOTH MODELS OVER THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD
WEAKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WEST. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC SATURDAY EVE/NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE SPEED AND ORIENTATION
DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS. HIGH PRESSURE IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY INCREASE
THROUGH SATURDAY...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...AS CONTINENTAL POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. WARM AND MOIST
AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL ASCEND THE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/
NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF RAIN AND MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15-
21Z TODAY. ENE TO NE SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE
10-15 KT RANGE...AND BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE SURFACE
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR A
BRIEF TIME AT KFAY THIS EVENING...WHERE WINDS AT 2000 FT MAY BRIEFLY
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 35 KTS (ATOP NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW).
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE - AND CONTINUED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS -
WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE BETWEEN 06Z-
09Z AT TRIAD TERMINALS...AND THIS CHANGEOVER WILL NEAR KRDU BY 12Z
MON...WITH CONTINUED LIQUID ELSEWHERE. THESE POOR AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL THEN LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WED...AS ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MAINTAINS THE
COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME OVER CENTRAL NC.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1115 AM SUNDAY...
WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE STILL 2.5 INCHES OR GREATER FOR THREE
HOURS OR GREATER...WILL CONTINUE TO REFRAIN FROM ANY FLOOD WATCHES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED QPF. SHOULD NOTE THAT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CONUS MAY IMPACT SOME OF THE EXPECTED HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. CONSISTENTLY IT APPEARS THE PROBABILITY OF MINOR FLOOD
STAGE BEING REACHED IS HIGHEST AT SMITHFIELD WHERE A RIVER FLOOD
WARNING IS IN EFFECT...LESS SO AT CLAYTON...AND NOTICEABLY LOWER AT
OTHER MAINSTEM RIVER SITES EVEN BASED ON THE HIGHEST QPF AVAILABLE
ON THE ENSEMBLE RIVER LEVEL OUTPUT OF THE MMEFS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 17 (MONDAY) ARE...
KGSO...38 DEGREES FROM 2005.
KRDU...32 DEGREES FROM 1892.
KFAY...39 DEGREES FROM 2005.
THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 18 (TUESDAY) ARE...
KGSO...36 DEGREES FROM 1961.
KRDU...36 DEGREES FROM 1892.
KFAY...41 DEGREES FROM 1998.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
MONDAY FOR NCZ007>009-021>023.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1030 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES AND COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ESSENTIALLY
WASHED OUT THIS MORNING...WITH A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VA. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AND
COMPLEX...POSITIVELY TILED UPPER TROUGH IS EVOLVING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 1002MB SURFACE LOW
KICKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. AND
EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD IS SPREAD ACROSS GA/SC AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN
NC...WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP NOW ONT HE DOORSTEPS OF THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND WARM
ADVECTION....WILL DRIVE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THERE ARE TWO
MAIN CONCERNS EVOLVING IN THE UPSTREAM RADAR/SATELLITE OBS: 1) A DRY
SLOT SURGING ACROSS NORTHERN AL AND TN AND 2) THE
ORIENTATION/TRACK OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z...WHICH IS WHEN CONFIDENCE IN HIGHEST POPS/QPF OCCURS. THE DRY
SLOT MAY HELP TO CUT DOWN ON PRECIP RATES ACROSS WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA BY AS EARLY AS 21Z...WHILE THE GULF COAST CONVECTION
MAY ACT TO DIRECT THE BEST LOW-LEVEL JETTING AND WARM ADVECTION
TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS. THE LATEST RAP QPF AND HRRR
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY HINT AT THIS...WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL SC AND EASTERN NC. HAVE ADJUST POPS PRIOR TO
NOON TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WITH CATEGORICAL STILL AFTER
NOON. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF LEAD TO NEAR AND INCH IN THE FAR
SOUTH AND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPS ARE LIKELY REACHING THEIR HIGHS FOR TODAY...MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AREAWIDE. EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND SLOWLY STRENGTHENING COLD
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...AS A SURFACE WAVE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL INTO THE 40S
(MAINLY NORTH) THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAINLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ISSUED FOR MIDNIGHT TO NOON MONDAY FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85...
DIFFICULT FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE NWP GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THE END RESULT IS A COMPLEX AND BUSY
FORECAST WITH DIFFERING IMPACTS...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE MINOR TO
MODERATE.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE ONGOING THIS EVENING AT THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 125KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC WITH A PUSH OF CONSIDERABLY
COLDER AND DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL WANE CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS THE BEST FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS DRY OUT. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF .10 INCHES WEST TO
.15 INCHES EAST ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE BASED COLD AIR OVER CENTRAL NC. THE NAM
IS CONSIDERABLY COLDER...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
AND FURTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH
WHICH PROVIDES A CLOSER COLD AIR SOURCE REGION AND WHICH DEVELOPS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PUSH THE COLD/DRY AIR FURTHER
SOUTH. USED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE TO PRODUCE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WHICH FALL TO FREEZING AT AROUND 3 TO 4 AM NEAR THE VA
BORDER. THE NAM GIVES A SFC TEMP OF 26 AT KGSO AT 8AM WHILE THE GFS
GIVES A COLD BUT MORE REASONABLE 29. THE 32 DEGREE SFC TEMP LINE
REACHES AS FAR SOUTH AS LOUISBURG....DURHAM AND HIGH POINT MONDAY
MORNING WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS FURTHER NORTH. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET POSSIBLE WHEN MOISTURE IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE ALOFT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON MONDAY FOR OUR NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 95. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT ON MONDAY AS PRECIP EBBS AND THE SURGE OF
COLD/DRY AIR SUBSIDES. IN ADDITION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET
MEANINGFUL ICE ACCRUAL WITH FREEZING RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
IN MID MARCH AT OUR LATITUDE. SO EXPECT MOST OF THE FREEZING RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TO FALL BETWEEN 4AM AND 9AM WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREE TOPS IN THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND REMOVED FROM THE GROUND WHICH SHOULD BE RADIATING SOME
HEAT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 AT THE VA BORDER
TO THE UPPER 30S TOWARD THE SC BORDER.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRYING ALOFT MOVES IN AND CENTRAL NC IS IN A
REGION OF WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN SYSTEMS. SENSIBLE WEATHER IS BEST
CHARACTERIZED AS CLOUDY SKIES WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WITH POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
SLIGHTLY WITH THE ABSENCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOME INSOLATION
THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 34 NEAR THE VA
BORDER TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE SC BORDER.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES GETTING EVEN COLDER THAN MONDAY MORNING. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF DRIVE THE WET BULB FREEZING LINE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE WBZ LINE SHIFTING
FROM WEST-EAST ON MONDAY MORNING TO MORE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO GO BONKERS BY DEVELOPING AN INTENSE SURFACE LOW NEAR
SAVANNAH AND DRIVES THE LOW NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.
THERE IS ANOTHER PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN SOME SLEET
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE ULTIMATE IMPACT DRIVEN NOT ONLY BY
THE MOUNT OF COLD AIR BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY BY THE QPF. GUIDANCE
DIFFERS WITH THE AMOUNT AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
PERIOD BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 0.10 TO POSSIBLY 0.20 INCHES
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT THAT FALLS ACROSS THE COLDER AND POTENTIALLY
WINTRY WEATHER AREA. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 27
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE TRIAD TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
CONTINUED CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED ON TUESDAY AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF PUSH
A SURFACE WAVE AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WHILE THE NAM APPEARS LOST
BY DRIVING AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER A BIT AND CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
EVERYWHERE BY MID MORNING BEFORE HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACH THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WAVE.
THREE-DAY QPF VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH NEAR THE VA BORDER TO
1.5 INCHES NEAR THE SC BORDER ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
THE NAM/SREF ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. MUCH OF THAT PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
INSUFFICIENT FOR A FLASH FLOOD OR AERIAL FLOOD WATCH. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. -BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THE GFS AND
ECMWF HANDLE THEM DIFFERENTLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...AMPLITUDE...
AND PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL...THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER...AND
COOLER THAN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DESCENT CHANCE THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IT SHOULD BE
ALL LIQUID AND FAIRLY LIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES AND
RESULTANT UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE FROPA ON SATURDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE
COLD AIR WEDGE...PRESENT IN BOTH MODELS OVER THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD
WEAKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WEST. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC SATURDAY EVE/NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE SPEED AND ORIENTATION
DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS. HIGH PRESSURE IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY INCREASE
THROUGH SATURDAY...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...AS CONTINENTAL POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. WARM AND MOIST
AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL ASCEND THE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/
NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF RAIN AND MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15-
21Z TODAY. ENE TO NE SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE
10-15 KT RANGE...AND BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE SURFACE
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR A
BRIEF TIME AT KFAY THIS EVENING...WHERE WINDS AT 2000 FT MAY BRIEFLY
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 35 KTS (ATOP NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW).
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE - AND CONTINUED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS -
WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE BETWEEN 06Z-
09Z AT TRIAD TERMINALS...AND THIS CHANGEOVER WILL NEAR KRDU BY 12Z
MON...WITH CONTINUED LIQUID ELSEWHERE. THESE POOR AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL THEN LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WED...AS ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MAINTAINS THE
COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME OVER CENTRAL NC.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 420 AM SUNDAY...
THREE-DAY QPF VALUES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH NEAR THE VA
BORDER TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE SC BORDER ALTHOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AMOUNTS COULD BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY
LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE FOR A SIX HOUR PERIOD RANGES FROM 2.8 TO 4.1 INCHES WITH
THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE HSA WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED. PROJECTED RAINFALL APPEARS INSUFFICIENT
FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AERIAL FLOODING
ALSO LIMITED.
BASED ON THE QPF NOTED ABOVE...SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE EXPECTED ON
THE MAIN STEM RIVERS. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE ALONG WITH NEUSE RIVER...ESPECIALLY AT
SMITHFIELD AND POSSIBLY CLAYTON. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE POSSIBLE
ON THE TAR RIVER BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS MUCH LESS.
-BLAES
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 17 ARE...
KGSO...38 DEGREES FROM 2005.
KRDU...32 DEGREES FROM 1892.
KFAY...39 DEGREES FROM 2005.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
MONDAY FOR NCZ007>009-021>023.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...MWS
HYDROLOGY...BLAES
CLIMATE...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1010 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
15 UTC WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORT-WAVE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND
THIS PACKET OF ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH IT...STRONG MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP A
QUICK MOVING BAND OF PRECIP THAT WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 21 UTC. INITIALLY...PRECIP WILL BE
ALL SNOW...BUT MAY TRANSITION INTO A FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX ON THE
TRAILING EDGE AS THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ALOFT RISES ABOVE
FREEZING. FREEZING RAIN MAY BECOME MORE DOMINANT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST MN AFTER 03 UTC AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRYING IN
THE -10 TO -20 C LAYER. MAJORITY OF PRECIP WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST
BY THIS TIME...SO THINK ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5 INCHES MAINLY NORTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM LANGDON TO THIEF RIVER FALLS TO WADENA. A FEW TENTHS
ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. RAP 925 HPA
WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD 35
TO 45 KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 03 UTC. ADIABATIC
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS TO AROUND 900 HPA BY 21 UTC...BUT
TRANSITIONS INTO AN INVERSION AFTER 00 UTC WITH INCREASING MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THESE STRONGER WINDS AROUND
925 HPA WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE LATER THIS EVENING. DID ADD SOME
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MN WHERE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME FALLING SNOW.
ALL THIS TO SAY...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME GIVEN
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP PHASE AND WINDS/BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MN FROM HALLOCK TO THIEF
RIVER FALLS TO BAUDETTE. WILL MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY...BUT PERSONS WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN THIS AREA SHOULD KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
DELAYED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING
OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE MAINLY CONCERNS STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THIS HAVE FOLLOWED GFS/ECMWF LOW TRACK SOLUTION WHICH IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN FARTHER NORTH NAM AND FARTHER SOUTH GEM
SOLUTIONS. FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD REMAINS IN QPF BETWEEN GFS AND
ECMWF FOR THE EVENT. EVENT NOT GETTING GOING TIL MONDAY NIGHT AND
AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE LEVEL NOT WHERE I WANT TO BE TO ISSUE
ANY HEADLINES.
FOR TODAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SETTING UP INCREASING
RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. BY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA
APPROACHES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA ON NOSE OF UPPER JET.
BAND OF PCPN SHOULD PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA THIS
EVENING SPREADING SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A MIX
AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT OVERALL BRUNT
OF PCPN SHOULD BE -SN. WILL SEE MUCH MILDER MINIMUMS TONIGHT AS
WARMER AIR PUSHES IN.
AS UPPER TROUGH CROSSES NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY WILL SEE
ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MODELS
DIFFER ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH PCPN WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SETS UP. PHASE WILL
BE A CHALLENGE AND COULD SEE A MIX DEVELOP DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS IT PROPAGATES
ESE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ECMWF/GEM KEEP MID LEVEL WAVE OPEN
AT THIS POINT WHERE THE GFS AND NAM CLOSE IT OFF. THIS HAS MAIN
IMPACT ON QPF POTENTIAL AND DEPTH OF SURFACE LOW. SNOW WILL TAPER
DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW EXITS TO THE EAST.
WITH MAIN IMPACTS IN PERIODS 4-5 AND ALL OF THE ABOVE
UNCERTAINTIES DID NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES BUT WILL POST POTENTIAL IN
SPS/HWO AND WX STORY.
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY...ACTIVE STORM TRACK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ZONAL TO NW 500MB FLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. ONLY SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA IS TIMED FOR
THURSDAY WITH CHC FOR -SN. OTHERWISE MID MARCH NORMALS FORECASTED
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S AND MINS IN THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE
RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
IS A THINNING BAND OF MVFR CIGS APPROACHING THE DVL REGION HOWEVER
NOT SURE HOW THIS WILL HOLD TOGETHER. REMAINDER OF THE FA SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PCPN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY COULD SEE SOME MIXED PCPN HOWEVER MOST OF THE
PCPN SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF -SN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
943 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
THE KMBX RADAR IS DETECTING LIGHT ECHOES OVER NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBS HAVE NOT
INDICATED ANY PRECIPITATION HITTING THE SURFACE YET. ALSO...THE
LATEST MODELS HOLD OFF ON PAINTING ANY QPF UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...PULLED POPS FROM THIS MORNING`S FORECAST
AND DELAYED THEM OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE DETERMINING THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE THE 12Z MODELS AS THEY
COME IN TO MAKE A FINAL DECISION THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING OVER PATCHES OF STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
UNDER H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
TODAY WITH THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSING OF A
H5 WAVE. DELAYED THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY A
COUPLE HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST RAP / HRRR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX SO DID NOT ALTER PRECIPITATION TYPE AT
THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
AT 3 AM CDT...A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE INTO THE
FRONT RANGE OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. MEANWHILE A COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE WARM
FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO HAVE MOVED INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE AND JAMES RIVER BASINS. GOOD WARM ADVECTION AT H850
AS WELL AS AT THE SURFACE...WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST -
AND EVENTUALLY WEST - BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE
FAR WEST TO RISE INTO THE 50S TODAY...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN.
AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE GFS/EC MODELS AND THE 06Z NAM INDICATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION THIS MORNING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THIS
MORNING...AND KEPT THE SMALL CHANCES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR PERHAPS A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET
BEFORE PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN.
TONIGHT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
APPROACHES THE DAKOTAS. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER MONTANA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW SHOULD INSURE MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETS UP MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOW FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DIP BELOW FREEZING - THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO A
BIT BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING THE AREAL COVERAGE AND LENGTH OF TIME OF
THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN.
THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD OF A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL SURROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES / AMOUNTS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE 00Z MODELS STILL
HAVE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LEADING TO BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME AGREEMENT INITIALLY IN THEIR
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW MONDAY....BUT THEY DIVERGE TUESDAY
WITH THE GFS STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A
00Z GFS / ECMWF BLEND WHICH IS IN LINE WITH WPC.
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT. THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW GATHERS STRENGTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX REMAINS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
EVERYTHING CHANGES TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS COLDER
AIR ARRIVES.
IN REGARDS TO SNOW AMOUNTS...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DISPLAY MUCH
CONFIDENCE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WOULD BE FAVORED FOR THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH WPC
WWD TOTALS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WILL
STICK WITH THE SPS AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE THE PASSING OF PERIODIC WAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY APPEAR LIGHT. HIGHS MUCH OF THE
WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE 30S / 40S...WITH LOWS AT NIGHT BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS
TODAY. AN IFR STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WILL AFFECT KDIK/KISN THIS MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AFT
15Z. THE MVFR/VFR STRATUS DECK OF 3000-4000 FEET ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA FROM KBIS-KMOT SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH 18Z. SOUTH WINDS
TO INCREASE TO OR REMAIN AT 17-20 KNOTS AT KMOT-KBIS-KJMS THROUGH
21Z...THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN LIKELY
KISN/KMOT AFT 06Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
NOTE THAT ICE WAS AFFECTING CREEKS AND RIVERS AND UNTIL THAT ICE
CLEARS...SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN WATER LEVELS ARE LIKELY.
EVEN THOUGH THE BEAVER CREEK AT LINTON IS AT 12.5 FEET...WHICH IS
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ASSURED US THAT
THERE ARE NO IMPACTS AT THIS STAGE. THEY ARE CURRENTLY DOCUMENTING
THE LACK OF IMPACTS AT THIS STAGE AND AT MAJOR FLOOD STAGE OF 13
FEET IN AN EFFORT TO RE-ASSESS THE FLOOD CATEGORIES AT A LATER
DATE. AS A RESULT OF COORDINATING WITH LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT...THE NWS WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A RIVER FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE BEAVER CREEK.
OTHERWISE...FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS...IN THE
MISSOURI RIVER BASIN...
THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR WILLISTON AFFECTING WILLIAMS AND MCKENZIE
COUNTIES. MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE.
LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER AT MEDORA AFFECTING BILLINGS AND GOLDEN
VALLEY COUNTIES. MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST DUE TO ICE JAMS.
CANNONBALL RIVER AT BREIEN AFFECTING MORTON AND SIOUX COUNTIES.
THE RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT BREIEN...BUT DID NOT
CLEAR THE WARNING YET TO ALLOW MORE TIME FOR ADDITIONAL AREAS
WITHIN THE WARNING POLYGON TO ALSO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...THE LITTLE MISSOURI THROUGH BOWMAN
AND SLOPE COUNTIES. ICE JAM FLOODING CAUSING RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN
WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE NEARING AN END.
IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN...
A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER
AFFECTING MCHENRY COUNTY. MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST BY LATE
TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV
HYDROLOGY...TM/AJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
648 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING OVER PATCHES OF STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
UNDER H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
TODAY WITH THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSING OF A
H5 WAVE. DELAYED THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY A
COUPLE HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST RAP / HRRR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX SO DID NOT ALTER PRECIPITATION TYPE AT
THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
AT 3 AM CDT...A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE INTO THE
FRONT RANGE OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. MEANWHILE A COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE WARM
FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO HAVE MOVED INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE AND JAMES RIVER BASINS. GOOD WARM ADVECTION AT H850
AS WELL AS AT THE SURFACE...WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST -
AND EVENTUALLY WEST - BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE
FAR WEST TO RISE INTO THE 50S TODAY...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN.
AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE GFS/EC MODELS AND THE 06Z NAM INDICATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION THIS MORNING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THIS
MORNING...AND KEPT THE SMALL CHANCES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR PERHAPS A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET
BEFORE PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN.
TONIGHT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
APPROACHES THE DAKOTAS. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER MONTANA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW SHOULD INSURE MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETS UP MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOW FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DIP BELOW FREEZING - THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO A
BIT BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING THE AREAL COVERAGE AND LENGTH OF TIME OF
THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN.
THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD OF A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL SURROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES / AMOUNTS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE 00Z MODELS STILL
HAVE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LEADING TO BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME AGREEMENT INITIALLY IN THEIR
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW MONDAY....BUT THEY DIVERGE TUESDAY
WITH THE GFS STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A
00Z GFS / ECMWF BLEND WHICH IS IN LINE WITH WPC.
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT. THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW GATHERS STRENGTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX REMAINS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
EVERYTHING CHANGES TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS COLDER
AIR ARRIVES.
IN REGARDS TO SNOW AMOUNTS...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DISPLAY MUCH
CONFIDENCE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WOULD BE FAVORED FOR THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH WPC
WWD TOTALS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WILL
STICK WITH THE SPS AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE THE PASSING OF PERIODIC WAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY APPEAR LIGHT. HIGHS MUCH OF THE
WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE 30S / 40S...WITH LOWS AT NIGHT BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS
TODAY. AN IFR STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WILL AFFECT KDIK/KISN THIS MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AFT
15Z. THE MVFR/VFR STRATUS DECK OF 3000-4000 FEET ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA FROM KBIS-KMOT SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH 18Z. SOUTH WINDS
TO INCREASE TO OR REMAIN AT 17-20 KNOTS AT KMOT-KBIS-KJMS THROUGH
21Z...THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN LIKELY
KISN/KMOT AFT 06Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
NOTE THAT ICE WAS AFFECTING CREEKS AND RIVERS AND UNTIL THAT ICE
CLEARS...SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN WATER LEVELS ARE LIKELY.
EVEN THOUGH THE BEAVER CREEK AT LINTON IS AT 12.5 FEET...WHICH IS
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ASSURED US THAT
THERE ARE NO IMPACTS AT THIS STAGE. THEY ARE CURRENTLY DOCUMENTING
THE LACK OF IMPACTS AT THIS STAGE AND AT MAJOR FLOOD STAGE OF 13
FEET IN AN EFFORT TO RE-ASSESS THE FLOOD CATEGORIES AT A LATER
DATE. AS A RESULT OF COORDINATING WITH LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT...THE NWS WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A RIVER FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE BEAVER CREEK.
OTHERWISE...FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS...IN THE
MISSOURI RIVER BASIN...
THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR WILLISTON AFFECTING WILLIAMS AND MCKENZIE
COUNTIES. MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE.
LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER AT MEDORA AFFECTING BILLINGS AND GOLDEN
VALLEY COUNTIES. MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST DUE TO ICE JAMS.
CANNONBALL RIVER AT BREIEN AFFECTING MORTON AND SIOUX COUNTIES.
THE RIVER HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT BREIEN...BUT DID NOT
CLEAR THE WARNING YET TO ALLOW MORE TIME FOR ADDITIONAL AREAS
WITHIN THE WARNING POLYGON TO ALSO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...THE LITTLE MISSOURI THROUGH BOWMAN
AND SLOPE COUNTIES. ICE JAM FLOODING CAUSING RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN
WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE NEARING AN END.
IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN...
A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER
AFFECTING MCHENRY COUNTY. MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST BY LATE
TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV
HYDROLOGY...TM/AJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
657 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER KENTUCKY TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN BY MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND A LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO KENTUCKY TODAY AND
HEAD TOWARDS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A
SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GET SHEARED OUT AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL WORK EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON HOW WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS...THIS
COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET AT ONSET. BUT DO NOT EXPECT SLEET TO HAVE ANY IMPACT IN THIS
EVENT. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS DURING THE EVENING THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. MOST ACCUMULATION WILL
OCCUR AFTER DARK WITH THE SNOW ALREADY TAPERING OFF BY 06Z.
THERE WILL BE A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND THUS
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA.
ADJACENT COUNTIES WILL LIKELY HAVE LESS THAN AN INCH WITH LITTLE
OR NO SNOW CLOSE TO THE I-71 CORRIDOR.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THESE
WINDS WILL REPLENISH DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
LIMITING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION.
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR READINGS TO BE EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FORECAST AS
SUGGESTED BY NUMEROUS RAP RUNS. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR THEN
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A BIT LOWER SINCE THERE WOULD BE MORE RAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW MIGHT BE
SLIGHTLY LATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL BE ABLE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING. BASED ON LONG TERM MOS BIAS HAVE
BUMPED UP HIGHS FOR MONDAY. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER MET MOS MONDAY
NIGHT AND GFS MOS FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. APPEARS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SWING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MORE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH
OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO JUMP BACK INTO
THE 60S ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL DROP READINGS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE WORKING INTO THE TAF SITES FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING. HAVE MVFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR
KCVG AND KLUK. KCVG AND KLUK WILL BE ON THE VERY EDGE OF THESE
CIGS. DECIDED TO LEAVE KCVG AND KLUK VFR THIS MORNING.
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
TAPERING DOWN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A SYSTEM WILL MOVE PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT HOWEVER THE AREA TAF
SITES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. KDAY AND
KCMH ARE EXPECTED TO STAY DRY. BROUGHT IN SOME MVFR SNOW TO
KCVG...KLUK...AND KILN. AT KLCK BROUGHT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW HOWEVER
DID NOT REDUCE VSBYS. IN ADDITION BROUGHT IN MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AT
ALL AREA TAF SITES EXCEPT KCMH.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR OHZ081-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR KYZ098>100.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
625 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LIKELY IFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
THIS MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WITH SFC GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS.
COLDER AIR WILL CAUSE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NW ARKANSAS BY
AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY FURTHER REDUCED. PRECIP WILL END BEFORE
00Z IN ALL AREAS WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR SERN OK...WITH A LARGE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT PULLS FARTHER E INTO AR...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WE`RE ALREADY
SEEING THIS OCCUR IN PARTS OF NE OK...WITH A RECENT 42MPH GUST AT
THE FORAKER MESONET SITE. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR NE AND ECNTRL OK
LOOKS GOOD...AND WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW.
BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TRYING TO NAIL DOWN THE SWITCHOVER
TO SLEET/SNOW TODAY...AND WHERE ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY
OCCUR. USING A 50/50 MIX OF THE NAM/ECMWF FOR THE TEMP/MOISTURE
PROFILES...AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN NE OK COULD START SEEING A
MIX LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR NW AR AND FAR ADJACENT AREAS OF NE OK. THE MORE RECENT
HOURLY RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE DOWNPLAYED ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
NE OK...AND ARE FOCUSING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ON PARTS OF NW AR
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MORE INLINE WITH THE NAM/ECMWF.
ANY SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND CONDITIONS...IT WILL TAKE GOOD SNOWFALL RATES
FOR ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...WILL OPT FOR A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CARROLL AND MADISON COUNTIES...WHERE AROUND 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW APPEAR LIKELY. DAYSHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY THIS MORNING...AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST ADVISORY FARTHER WEST.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM NICELY BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL KNOCK
TEMPS BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY...AND MAY BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-
OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071.
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM SUNDAY FOR
ARZ002-ARZ011.
&&
$$
AVIATION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1012 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
LLJ IS STRONGEST EAST OF THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER FAR
NORTHWESTERN AL. AS A RESULT...WE ARE SEEING A DECREASE IN COVERAGE
OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID STATE RIGHT NOW. BUT
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE EXISTS OVER AR WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN TN AND KY INTO MO AND AR. AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD TODAY...THE RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
AGAIN FILL IN. THEREFORE...THE GRID TREND TO KEEP 50 POPS
SOUTHWEST AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ELSEWHERE...CONTINUES TO
LOOK REASONABLE.
OTW...STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. SFC SHOWALTERS TO GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BY 18Z.
AS FOR TODAY`S TEMPS...FALLING TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TODAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST...TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH NOW WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE FINALLY KICKS IT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
FOR NOW...NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. WILL PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE
TEMPS HOWEVER AS A STEEP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/
UPDATE...MASSAGED PRECIP AND POP GRIDS TO INDICATE A GENERAL
TREND THAT CLOSELY PARALLELS LATEST RADAR LOOPS AND HRRR. ALSO, IN
LIGHT OF LATEST FORECAST RUC SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, HAVE
EXPANDED THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER A TAD FURTHER NORTH
(FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD). OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
757 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.UPDATE...MASSAGED PRECIP AND POP GRIDS TO INDICATE A GENERAL
TREND THAT CLOSELY PARALLELS LATEST RADAR LOOPS AND HRRR. ALSO, IN
LIGHT OF LATEST FORECAST RUC SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, HAVE
EXPANDED THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER A TAD FURTHER NORTH
(FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD). OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1027 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...DID A FEW UPDATES TO THE FORECAST. SOME
CONVECTION/STRATI-FORM RAIN REMAINING AROUND THE AREA DUE TO POTENT
JET SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS IMPACTS FROM UPPER JET END. FRONT THROUGH
NORTHERN AREAS NOW...AND GOING THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS BY NOON.
LEFT SOME CONVECTION IN FOR THE AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE COAST
(AND OFFSHORE). WIND ADVISORY CRITERION NOT THERE FOR WEBB COUNTY
SO WILL CANCEL IT. FORECAST HIGHS A BIT TRICKY OUT WEST WHERE
SATELLITE SHOWING SOME CLEARING BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE CLOUDS
COME BACK. IN SHORT...DID SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR HIGHS
TODAY...AND ADJUSTED OTHER GRIDS AS-NEEDED FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT TO BETTER FIT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS. ALL
PRODUCTS UPDATED AND OUT.
&&
.MARINE...STARTED SCA A BIT EARLIER AS WINDS ON RUC AND NEW NAM WERE
GOING HIGHER EARLIER. NORTHWEST WINDS CLEARED OUT THE SEA FOG SO
THAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLIER. KEPT END TIMING OF SCA THE
SAME FOR NOW...BUT WILL LOOK AT ANY ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. PUT LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THAT IS
IT FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...HAVE ADJUSTED POP/WEATHER FORECAST FOR TODAY BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG CAPE GRADIENT
WITH INITIAL BOUNDARY. CAPE VALUES RATHER LOW...BELOW 1000
J/KG...BUT SFC-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 60KT. MESO MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE SITUATION WELL AT ALL. THINKING THOUGH IS THAT AS THE
UPPER JET SAGS SOUTH THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT...BUT WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SHOWER ACTIVITY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
ALSO SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...WILL ADD CONVECTION INTO ALL TAFS WITH 12Z UPDATE THIS
MORNING. LRD SHOULD ONLY SEE CONVECTION POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT ALL OTHER SITES COULD SEE AT LEAST SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE
SEEMS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. EXPECTED STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP FOR ALL
SITES AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGE PRE
FRONT...AND VFR POST FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST 18 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INITIALLY...HAVE FOG
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS...BUT MOSTLY A LIGHT FOG
SITUATION. SOME PATCHY...BRIEF DENSE FOG ON THE ISLANDS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEEING SOME VIRGA...OR MAYBE SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH INITIAL WIND
SHIFT/LEADING TROUGH. COULD BE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS FROM DEL
RIO TO AUSTIN...BUT MAIN FRONT WITH COLDER/DRIER AIR IS STILL BACK
AROUND MIDLAND TO WICHITA FALLS. SURFACE THETA E FORECAST WOULD
INDICATE THE STRONGER FRONT ACCELERATING FASTER TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS
THIS MORNING...MAYBE CATCHING THE WEAKER FRONT BY THE COAST.
THAT SAID...STILL LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT BEGINNING NORTHWEST ZONES
BY 11-12Z...BUT SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS/COOLER TEMPS WONT BE UNTIL
MID MORNING WEST. SHOULD SEE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH TO THE COAST
BY 18Z. HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST...BUT MAY NEED
TO EXPAND THUNDER POTENTIAL WEST IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE.
LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET CERTAINLY HELPING IN CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE JET DOES GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHOULD TAKE THUNDER POTENTIAL WITH IT.
HRRR MODEL DOING A VERY POOR JOB THIS MORNING WITH INITIALIZING
PRECIP...NOT INDICATING CONVECTION BETWEEN DEL RIO AND LAREDO AT
ALL.
ALL OF THE ABOVE LEADS TO A TRICKY TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST
FOR TODAY. FIRST...WIND. PRECIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD ALL BEEN PROGGING
A VERY STRONG BURST OF WINDS AT 925MB IN WESTERN ZONES FOR
TODAY...00Z AND 06Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THIS...AND WHAT STRONGER WINDS THEY DO HAVE LEFT ARE FARTHER WEST
OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS BRINGS INTO QUESTION WHETHER WEB COUNTY
CAN REALIZE THE WINDS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
THINKING ON THAT...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR AREAS NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BRIEFLY...SO WILL LET THE
ADVISORY RIDE FOR NOW. WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...MOST
OF WEBB COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY NOT BE GUSTING TO 40 MPH. TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY
TOO...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
WITH COOLER HIGHS...HAVE CANCELLED RED FLAG WATCH FOR THE
AREA...THINKING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE DRY ENOUGH FOR A CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY BENIGN. PRECIP
IF IT LINGERS INTO THE EVENING SHOULD END PRETTY EARLY. WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW STILL OVER THE AREA...BUT
SHOULD SEE TEMPS INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF US.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...DRY AND COOL MON NIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DOES SHIFT EAST MON EVE
AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATE MON NIGHT...THEN STRENGTHENS
TUE. SUNNY AND DRY TUE....WARM AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST GIVEN
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND...POSSIBLY NEAR 90 POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME AREAS OF BRUSH
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE. THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL SHELF WATERS
AND INLAND TEMPS ON TUE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AS MOISTURE RETURN IS RATHER LIMITED. THE TAIL END OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SLIP INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND STALL...
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO A GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
NOT COMPLETELY FAVORABLE TO DRIVE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
NEVERTHELESS...LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKED MORE EASTERLY WED AND THU WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO APPEAR RATHER LIMITED...SO NO MENTION OF PRECIP
MENTIONED AT THIS TIME WED OR THU. ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE DEPTH
DOES INCREASE FRI ACROSS COASTAL BEND AND SAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER
FORCING IS RATHER LIMITED THIS FAR SOUTH SO AT THIS TIME HAVE CHOSE
NOT TO MENTION PRECIP IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 72 45 65 44 85 / 40 10 10 0 0
VICTORIA 67 41 63 41 82 / 40 10 10 0 0
LAREDO 70 45 71 49 90 / 40 10 0 0 0
ALICE 71 44 67 41 89 / 40 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 67 46 62 49 75 / 40 10 10 0 0
COTULLA 68 41 70 42 86 / 40 10 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 73 45 67 40 87 / 40 10 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 69 46 64 51 78 / 40 10 10 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
645 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
A LINE OF NORTH-NORTHWESTERN CWA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
FORMED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LEADING THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY COMING ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS LINE IS
ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO A MORE HUMID AND LESS-CAPPED
(OR MORE UNSTABLE) AIR MASS AND WILL BE IMPACTING THE GREATER
HOUSTON METRO AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SMALL HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH...AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. STRONGER CELLS....OR MORE WEST-TO-EAST
OREINTATED RAIN...COULD PRODUCE OVER A HALF OF AN INCH IN RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL TO DIME
SIZE. W/V IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE BETWEEN DEL RIO
AND LAREDO IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THAT MAY BE HEADING UP IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALL OF THE ABOVE ELEMENTS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
OF RAISING MORNING INTO AFTERNOON SOUTHERN CWA POPS TO HIGH CHANCE
OR LIKELY. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/
AVIATION...
LINE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ITS
WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. 12Z TAFS WILL HAVE RAINS IN
THEIR FORECAST FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AND WILL SHOW WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LIFT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...INLAND
WELL UP NORTH THIS MORNING AND ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
TOMORROW WITH SKIES CLEARING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT BLOSSOMING
OVER SOUTHERN FORT WORTH`S CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. BELIEVE THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTEGRITY AND REACH OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HRRR AND NAM12
REDEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH PROG
SOUNDINGS AGREE WITH THE 00Z KCRP RAOB OF A DRY 5-85H LAYER...SE
TX FALLS UNDER A LEFT EXIT QUAD OF A NEAR-PARALLEL EXITING 25H
JET. MID TO UPPER 60 DEW POINT AIR INDICATES THERE IS ENOUGH LOWER
LAYER MOISTURE TO COUNTER THESE DRY MID-LAYERS...AND WITH THE
LIFT OF THE FRONT AND THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS...LEFT HIGH END
CHANCE MORNING POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH...EITHER A SURFACE LOW RIDING
UP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SW`ERLY FLOW...ONLY STRENGTHENS THE ARGUMENT
FOR KEEPING HIGHER POPS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY. GENERALLY
.MOST LOCALES WILL PICK UP A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED SPOTS COULD QUICKLY PICK UP A HALF AN INCH OR MORE FROM
STRONGER CELLS. AMPED UP NORTHERLIES IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WILL
HOLD OFF ON THE WIND ADVISORY AND HAND OFF TO THE NEXT SHIFT AS
THEY WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE `WHEN AND WHERE` OF
SUSTAINED 25 MPH WINDS.
5H TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF REGION MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG CAA
COOLING CONDITIONS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 4OS INLAND...MID
40S AT COAST....WITH A BRISK NORTH WIND. MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY`S EVENING HOURS AS THE REGION FALLS
BETWEEN TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. A CLEARING AND COOL MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY WARMER...ALBEIT CHILLY...TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE MEAN LOW-MID 40S. RETURN FLOW BY TUESDAY SUNRISE...WITH PLENTY
OF AFTERNOON SUN IN ALLOWING MANY COMMUNITIES TO WARM UP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH EASTERN TEXAS
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WASH OUT OVER THE FA...KEEPING
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT ALSO PULLING DOWN A COOLER AIR MASS
AND REGULATING MID-WEEK WARMTH TO THE SEASONABLE AVERAGE LOWER
70S. A COUPLE OF DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAYS TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE-
WISE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEXAS FALLS UNDER A NEAR-ZONAL
SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN. THE EVOLUTION OF GRADUAL WESTERN CONUS
TROUGHING WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK W-SW DISTURBANCES TO RIDE
ON IN AND INCREASE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. 31
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND POSSIBLE AREAS OF DENSE SEA
FOG SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
EXPECT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS TO DEVELOP.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED...AND SOME GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 36 60 42 77 / 20 10 10 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 40 60 45 78 / 50 10 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 44 59 51 70 / 60 10 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
607 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.AVIATION...
LINE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ITS
WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. 12Z TAFS WILL HAVE RAINS IN
THEIR FORECAST FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AND WILL SHOW WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LIFT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...INLAND
WELL UP NORTH THIS MORNING AND ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
TOMORROW WITH SKIES CLEARING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT BLOSSOMING
OVER SOUTHERN FORT WORTH`S CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. BELIEVE THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTEGRITY AND REACH OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HRRR AND NAM12
REDEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH PROG
SOUNDINGS AGREE WITH THE 00Z KCRP RAOB OF A DRY 5-85H LAYER...SE
TX FALLS UNDER A LEFT EXIT QUAD OF A NEAR-PARALLEL EXITING 25H
JET. MID TO UPPER 60 DEW POINT AIR INDICATES THERE IS ENOUGH LOWER
LAYER MOISTURE TO COUNTER THESE DRY MID-LAYERS...AND WITH THE
LIFT OF THE FRONT AND THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS...LEFT HIGH END
CHANCE MORNING POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH...EITHER A SURFACE LOW RIDING
UP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SW`ERLY FLOW...ONLY STRENGTHENS THE ARGUMENT
FOR KEEPING HIGHER POPS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY. GENERALLY
..MOST LOCALES WILL PICK UP A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED SPOTS COULD QUICKLY PICK UP A HALF AN INCH OR MORE FROM
STRONGER CELLS. AMPED UP NORTHERLIES IN THE FRONT`S WAKE WILL NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WILL
HOLD OFF ON THE WIND ADVISORY AND HAND OFF TO THE NEXT SHIFT AS
THEY WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE `WHEN AND WHERE` OF
SUSTAINED 25 MPH WINDS.
5H TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF REGION MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG CAA
COOLING CONDITIONS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 4OS INLAND...MID
40S AT COAST....WITH A BRISK NORTH WIND. MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY`S EVENING HOURS AS THE REGION FALLS
BETWEEN TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. A CLEARING AND COOL MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY WARMER...ALBEIT CHILLY...TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE MEAN LOW-MID 40S. RETURN FLOW BY TUESDAY SUNRISE...WITH PLENTY
OF AFTERNOON SUN IN ALLOWING MANY COMMUNITIES TO WARM UP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH EASTERN TEXAS
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WASH OUT OVER THE FA...KEEPING
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT ALSO PULLING DOWN A COOLER AIR MASS
AND REGULATING MID-WEEK WARMTH TO THE SEASONABLE AVERAGE LOWER
70S. A COUPLE OF DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAYS TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE-
WISE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEXAS FALLS UNDER A NEAR-ZONAL
SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN. THE EVOLUTION OF GRADUAL WESTERN CONUS
TROUGHING WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK W-SW DISTURBANCES TO RIDE
ON IN AND INCREASE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES. 31
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND POSSIBLE AREAS OF DENSE SEA
FOG SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
EXPECT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS TO DEVELOP.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED...AND SOME GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 36 60 42 77 / 20 10 10 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 40 60 45 78 / 50 10 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 44 59 51 70 / 50 10 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1251 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.UPDATE...INTENSE SQUALL LINE OVER FL PNDL INTO SW GA MOVING QUICKLY
EASTWARD. WHILE IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY LESS UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT OVER TIME...CANNOT DISCOUNT LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING BOWING
CONVECTIVE SEGMENT THAT MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES 18-21Z BEFORE
WEAKENING SUBSTANTIALLY THEREAFTER. HAVE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES IN OUR HOURLY FORECASTS FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS IF THE LINE CAN HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO OUR WESTERNMOST COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HRS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 74 61 65 52 / 80 90 90 80
SSI 77 63 63 53 / 40 90 90 90
JAX 81 64 69 58 / 20 90 90 90
SGJ 78 68 68 59 / 10 80 90 90
GNV 81 64 71 57 / 20 90 90 90
OCF 83 66 75 59 / 10 80 90 80
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT MONDAY
FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
WOLF/ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
228 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1025 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO FORECAST TODAY MAINLY FOR LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST IL...
AND TWEAKS TO MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF WEAKENING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY DEEP
SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER THAT REGION IN MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXTENDED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IL/INDIANA...THOUGH A NARROW WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
HAD PERSISTED EVEN FARTHER NORTH ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE ROUGHLY FROM
QUINCY-MACOMB-MORRIS. THIS BAND OF SNOW HAD PRODUCED HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY RADAR RETURNS JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...
THOUGH HAS WEAKENED STEADILY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. STILL...HAVE
INDICATED SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH CWA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THIS BAND CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE AND DRIFT SOUTHEAST.
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...COLD LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WAS PRODUCING AND AREA OF LAKE-INDUCED FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SE WI AND IL COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE
STATE LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN NORTHEAST WIND FIELD THROUGH
THE DAY...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND VEERING MORE EAST IN THE LOW
LEVELS TOWARD EVENING. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MAINTAINING A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS. HOWEVER...ADVECTION
OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR APPEARS TO BE RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN DEPTH
OF LAKE-EFFECT STRATOCU PER GOES VISIBLE LOOP...AND HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE INCLUDING OUR LOCAL 8 KM ARW INDICATE DECREASING RH IN THE
CLOUD BEARING LAYER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE INDICATED
DECREASING POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST IL INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
OTHER THAN SOME ACCOMPANYING TWEAKS TO SKY COVER COINCIDENT WITH
POP/WX ADJUSTMENTS...REMAINDER OF FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE AT
THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES MADE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
322 AM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER MAINLY AROUND TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH A TYPICAL SPRING SEE SAW PATTERN OF WARMER PERIODS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER PERIODS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
A DECENT AREA OF SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS THAT EXISTS WITHIN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RADAR
RETURNS SUGGEST THAT THIS BAND OF SNOW IS FAIRLY INTENSE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OF THIS WRITING. VISIBILITIES UNDER
THIS BAND OF SNOW RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2 MILES. HOWEVER...SOME OF
THE MORE INTENSE SNOW COULD BE RESULTING IN SOME ISOLATED BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB MILE VISIBILITIES. OVERALL...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH
THE THINKING OF THIS SNOW. THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SAG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LIKELY ENDING ACROSS MY SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SO...ALTHOUGH THE SNOW IS
FALLING AT A DECENT RATE...IT APPEARS THAT OVERALL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
IN ADDITION TO THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW...THERE IS ACTUALLY ALSO SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. THE COLD AIRMASS SPILLING ACROSS THE LAKE IS
PRODUCING SOME MODEST LAKE INDUCED EL`S UP AROUND 4,000 FEET
AGL...PER MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE A BIG
DEAL...THERE MAY BE A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT. I ADDED A FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH
TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A COLD CANADIAN HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ACROSS THE
REGION...AND AS SUCH...THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD RAW DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. I HAVE REMAINED A BIT HIGHER THAN MOST GUIDANCE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT LOCAL
CLIMATOLOGY FOR 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES
COULD BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT IT WILL STILL BE A COLD DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...SETTING UP LIGHTER WINDS...AND LIKELY A VERY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. SOME SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES
ARE EVEN POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS.
A WARMER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AGAIN LATER IN
THE DAY MONDAY. SO TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A REBOUND DURING THE
DAY. HOWEVER...THE BETTER WARMTH WILL NOT SET UP UNTIL TUESDAY. AN
ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SETTING UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE
MUCH WARMER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO TUESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID
WEEK. HOWEVER...OVERALL...PREFER THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY WARM DAY
FOR MOST OF THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO BE
WELL INTO THE 50S...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE LAKE. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS AREAS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...LIKELY IN THE LOWER 40S...DUE TO AN EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT OFF THE LAKE.
THE STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS TIMING AND TRACK WOULD FAVOR THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A VERY MILD NIGHT...POTENTIALLY EVEN
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...THE THREAT
FOR ANY SNOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK APPEARS THAT IT COULD PRODUCE AND DRIVE YET
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEK
AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE EVEN LARGER DISCREPANCIES WITH
AMONGST THE FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR WARMER
WEATHER INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR DROPS BACK
ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/FLURRIES TO RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING
* GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...TAPERING IN THE EVENING
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS THOUGH...GUSTY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY TREND DOWN. OUT THE GATE...GUSTS INTO THE MID 20 KT RANGE
ARE EXPECTED. LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS/FLURRIES WHICH HAVE IMPACTED
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH THE MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTH AND DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME
MODELS DO SUGGEST CIGS REFORMING BACK OVER THE CHICAGO AREA THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 KTS AND BEGIN TO
VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL WINDOW OF MVFR THIS EVENING...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR RETURNING THIS EVENING
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR. MODERATELY STRONG SE WINDS POSSIBLE. -SHRA POSSIBLE
AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF -RA. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
227 PM CDT
HEADLINES...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR POINTS WEST OF
GARY UNTIL 9Z TONIGHT AS THE WAVE MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE
HAZARDOUS WAVES WILL PERSIST A BIT LONGER. WILL NEED A GALE WATCH
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT ITS A BIT FAR
OUT TO BE NAILING DOWN EXACT TIMES NOW. WILL ALSO LIKELY NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR BOTH WINDS AND WAVES.
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE NOW...BUT STILL
HAVE NE WINDS 20-25 KT OVER THE SW END OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND ITS RIDGE ROTATES
OVER THE LAKE. WINDS BECOME SE TOMORROW MORNING AND REMAIN SE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS PICK UP AND BEGIN TO VEER TO SOUTH
TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. GUIDANCE HAS SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW...BUT THINKING THE LOW WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY
AS IT MOVES OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH EXPECTING SW TO W GALES
WEDNESDAY. WINDS REMAIN WEST BEHIND THE LOW BUT QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE LAKE THURSDAY. WINDS THEN
TURN EAST AS YET ANOTHER LOW IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO PASS JUST SOUTH
OF THE LAKE FRIDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 4 AM
MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1239 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1039 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Latest radar imagery continues to show a band of frontogenetically
forced snow dissipating across the Illinois River Valley. The
snow currently extends along a line from near El Paso, to Pekin,
to Rushville and is shifting slowly southeastward. While earlier
model data suggested snow would be completely gone by 10am, it
appears light snow/flurries will persist through noon before dry
northeasterly flow finally erodes the precip. Meanwhile, southern
stream wave is spreading rain northward into the Ohio River
Valley: however, precip is having a hard time fighting against the
dry NE flow. Models keep most of the precip just south of the KILX
CWA this afternoon, with only the far SE potentially being
impacted. Have tightened the POP gradient across the E/SE, mainly
to limit any mention of precip to only locations south of I-70.
Even though mostly rain is falling across southern Illinois at
this time, ample dry air within the atmospheric column will lead
to evaporative cooling and snow if the precip makes it into the SE
CWA. Will maintain chance POPs south of I-70, with perhaps around
one half inch of slushy snow accumulation along/south of Highway
50.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1239 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
Strong northeasterly winds will continue throughout the afternoon,
with gusts generally in the 25 to 30kt range. Gustiness will
subside toward sunset, with winds decreasing to less than 10kt
overnight as high pressure builds into the region. Once high
shifts off to the east, a light E/SE return flow will develop
by Monday morning. Mid/high cloud deck will remain in place this
afternoon, but will gradually shift southeastward with time and
should be south of the terminals by early evening. May see a few
lake-enhanced lower clouds around 2500ft at KPIA, but do not
expect any prevailing MVFR ceilings at this time.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
00Z models continue to trend further south with surface low
pressure and associated qpf fields over southern areas today.
Therefore continue to lower pops and qpf/snowfall amounts over
southern counties today. A light snow band nw of the IL river has
produced between a half to 1 inch the past several hours from Knox,
Stark and Marshall counties nw toward the Quad Cities. RUC/HRRR
models diminish this light snow band over the IL river valley
through mid morning/15Z and any additional snow accumulations
should be less than 1 inch as it weakens.
1003 mb low pressure over west central AR while 1037 mb high
pressure was near the MN/Canadian border. Very tight pressure
gradient over IL between these systems giving gusty ne winds as
high as 35 to 43 mph over central IL early this morning. RUC and
NAM models show these higher wind gusts of 35-45 mph shifting
ssw by midday so strongest winds over central IL during the
morning and not quite as strong in the afternoon hours. Still
think shy of wind advisory criteria though a few spots could reach
sustained around 30 mph or a bit higher and/or wind gusts near 45
mph. Low pressure to track east across northern MS/AL today and
keep brunt of heavier pcpn south of IL. Have chance of mixed
precip this morning southern areas and mainly just chance of light
snow se IL this afternoon and ending by late today as low pressure
system pulls away from IL.
Much colder today and little temperature rise and se IL may even
see temps slipping during the day into the lower 30s. Clouds
decreasing over the IL river valley this afternoon and over rest
of area during the evening with diminishing winds. Cold lows in
the mid to upper teens tonight with southeast IL around 20F.
Nice warmup in store Mon and especially Tue with upper 50s and
lower 60s possible Tue afternoon. 995 mb low pressure passes nw of
IL Tue night and brings a cold front east through the state with
chance of rain showers and diminishing already during Wed. Temps
cool just a bit behind this system Wed/Thu but still could see
highs in upper 40s to mid 50s.
LONG TERM...Thursday night through Sunday
Milder temps return Friday with breezy southerly winds and highs
back into the upper 50s and lower 60s with even mid 60s se of I-70.
Low pressure passes to north of central IL again Fri/Fri night
brining a cold front through Friday night and next chance of rain
showers Fri and Fri night. Canadian high pressure building down
into the Midwest this weekend to bring colder temperatures back to
the region.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1105 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1025 AM CDT
FOR MORNING UPDATE...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO FORECAST TODAY MAINLY FOR LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST IL...
AND TWEAKS TO MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF WEAKENING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY DEEP
SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER THAT REGION IN MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXTENDED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IL/INDIANA...THOUGH A NARROW WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
HAD PERSISTED EVEN FARTHER NORTH ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE ROUGHLY FROM
QUINCY-MACOMB-MORRIS. THIS BAND OF SNOW HAD PRODUCED HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY RADAR RETURNS JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...
THOUGH HAS WEAKENED STEADILY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. STILL...HAVE
INDICATED SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH CWA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THIS BAND CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE AND DRIFT SOUTHEAST.
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...COLD LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WAS PRODUCING AND AREA OF LAKE-INDUCED FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SE WI AND IL COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE
STATE LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN NORTHEAST WIND FIELD THROUGH
THE DAY...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND VEERING MORE EAST IN THE LOW
LEVELS TOWARD EVENING. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MAINTAINING A THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS. HOWEVER...ADVECTION
OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR APPEARS TO BE RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN DEPTH
OF LAKE-EFFECT STRATOCU PER GOES VISIBLE LOOP...AND HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE INCLUDING OUR LOCAL 8 KM ARW INDICATE DECREASING RH IN THE
CLOUD BEARING LAYER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE INDICATED
DECREASING POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO
SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST IL INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
OTHER THAN SOME ACCOMPANYING TWEAKS TO SKY COVER COINCIDENT WITH
POP/WX ADJUSTMENTS...REMAINDER OF FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE AT
THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES MADE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
322 AM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER MAINLY AROUND TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH A TYPICAL SPRING SEE SAW PATTERN OF WARMER PERIODS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER PERIODS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
A DECENT AREA OF SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS THAT EXISTS WITHIN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RADAR
RETURNS SUGGEST THAT THIS BAND OF SNOW IS FAIRLY INTENSE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OF THIS WRITING. VISIBILITIES UNDER
THIS BAND OF SNOW RANGE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2 MILES. HOWEVER...SOME OF
THE MORE INTENSE SNOW COULD BE RESULTING IN SOME ISOLATED BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB MILE VISIBILITIES. OVERALL...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH
THE THINKING OF THIS SNOW. THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SAG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LIKELY ENDING ACROSS MY SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SO...ALTHOUGH THE SNOW IS
FALLING AT A DECENT RATE...IT APPEARS THAT OVERALL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
IN ADDITION TO THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW...THERE IS ACTUALLY ALSO SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. THE COLD AIRMASS SPILLING ACROSS THE LAKE IS
PRODUCING SOME MODEST LAKE INDUCED EL`S UP AROUND 4,000 FEET
AGL...PER MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE A BIG
DEAL...THERE MAY BE A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT. I ADDED A FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH
TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND A COLD CANADIAN HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ACROSS THE
REGION...AND AS SUCH...THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD RAW DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. I HAVE REMAINED A BIT HIGHER THAN MOST GUIDANCE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT LOCAL
CLIMATOLOGY FOR 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES
COULD BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT IT WILL STILL BE A COLD DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...SETTING UP LIGHTER WINDS...AND LIKELY A VERY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MAY TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. SOME SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES
ARE EVEN POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS.
A WARMER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AGAIN LATER IN
THE DAY MONDAY. SO TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A REBOUND DURING THE
DAY. HOWEVER...THE BETTER WARMTH WILL NOT SET UP UNTIL TUESDAY. AN
ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SETTING UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE
MUCH WARMER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO TUESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID
WEEK. HOWEVER...OVERALL...PREFER THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY WARM DAY
FOR MOST OF THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO BE
WELL INTO THE 50S...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE LAKE. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS AREAS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...LIKELY IN THE LOWER 40S...DUE TO AN EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT OFF THE LAKE.
THE STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS TIMING AND TRACK WOULD FAVOR THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A VERY MILD NIGHT...POTENTIALLY EVEN
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...THE THREAT
FOR ANY SNOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK APPEARS THAT IT COULD PRODUCE AND DRIVE YET
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEK
AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE EVEN LARGER DISCREPANCIES WITH
AMONGST THE FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR WARMER
WEATHER INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR DROPS BACK
ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* MODERATELY STRONG/GUSTY NE WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
* SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
IZZI/BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
SYNOPTIC SNOWS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
OFF THE LAKE. AXIS OF CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY PIVOT
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AND PROBABLY NORTH OF ORD/DPA AND
EVENTUALLY RFD...IF NOT DRIER AIR UPSTREAM COULD LIMIT CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT SOME. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN WHEN/IF MVFR CIGS CLEAR
IS LOW. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER STRONG WITH GUSTS IN
THE 20-30KT RANGE THIS MORNING PROBABLY EASING TO CLOSER TO 20KT
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AND LOSING GUSTS EARLY
THIS EVENING.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIG TRENDS TODAY
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OTHER ELEMENTS
IZZI/BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR. MODERATELY STRONG SE WINDS POSSIBLE. -SHRA POSSIBLE
AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF -RA. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
251 AM CDT
FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THIS
MORNING OVER THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE LAKE SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE INCHES CLOSER TO
REGION AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY FRESHEN UP MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW. FAIRLY
STRONG LOW AND FORMIDABLE SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT COULD ALLOW
FOR A PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN A
BIT LATE IN THE WEEK.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1039 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1039 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Latest radar imagery continues to show a band of frontogenetically
forced snow dissipating across the Illinois River Valley. The
snow currently extends along a line from near El Paso, to Pekin,
to Rushville and is shifting slowly southeastward. While earlier
model data suggested snow would be completely gone by 10am, it
appears light snow/flurries will persist through noon before dry
northeasterly flow finally erodes the precip. Meanwhile, southern
stream wave is spreading rain northward into the Ohio River
Valley: however, precip is having a hard time fighting against the
dry NE flow. Models keep most of the precip just south of the KILX
CWA this afternoon, with only the far SE potentially being
impacted. Have tightened the POP gradient across the E/SE, mainly
to limit any mention of precip to only locations south of I-70.
Even though mostly rain is falling across southern Illinois at
this time, ample dry air within the atmospheric column will lead
to evaporative cooling and snow if the precip makes it into the SE
CWA. Will maintain chance POPs south of I-70, with perhaps around
one half inch of slushy snow accumulation along/south of Highway
50.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 655 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Strong northeast winds the main concern today along with areas of
light snow and briefly lower cigs...especially around Peoria south
to near Springfield this morning. Northeast winds of 25 to 35 mph
with gusts as high as 45 mph at times will continue through this
morning with a gradual decrease in winds this afternoon and esp
this evening as high pressure settles into our area. MVFR cigs
will continue for a few more hours at PIA before conditions start
to improve for late morning thru the afternoon hours. SPI is going
to be right on the edge of the MVFR cigs so for now will continue
with VFR conditions there with snow, if any, expected to be light
enough not to bring the cigs down. VFR conditions are expected
across the entire area tonight as high pressure settles in.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
00Z models continue to trend further south with surface low
pressure and associated qpf fields over southern areas today.
Therefore continue to lower pops and qpf/snowfall amounts over
southern counties today. A light snow band nw of the IL river has
produced between a half to 1 inch the past several hours from Knox,
Stark and Marshall counties nw toward the Quad Cities. RUC/HRRR
models diminish this light snow band over the IL river valley
through mid morning/15Z and any additional snow accumulations
should be less than 1 inch as it weakens.
1003 mb low pressure over west central AR while 1037 mb high
pressure was near the MN/Canadian border. Very tight pressure
gradient over IL between these systems giving gusty ne winds as
high as 35 to 43 mph over central IL early this morning. RUC and
NAM models show these higher wind gusts of 35-45 mph shifting
ssw by midday so strongest winds over central IL during the
morning and not quite as strong in the afternoon hours. Still
think shy of wind advisory criteria though a few spots could reach
sustained around 30 mph or a bit higher and/or wind gusts near 45
mph. Low pressure to track east across northern MS/AL today and
keep brunt of heavier pcpn south of IL. Have chance of mixed
precip this morning southern areas and mainly just chance of light
snow se IL this afternoon and ending by late today as low pressure
system pulls away from IL.
Much colder today and little temperature rise and se IL may even
see temps slipping during the day into the lower 30s. Clouds
decreasing over the IL river valley this afternoon and over rest
of area during the evening with diminishing winds. Cold lows in
the mid to upper teens tonight with southeast IL around 20F.
Nice warmup in store Mon and especially Tue with upper 50s and
lower 60s possible Tue afternoon. 995 mb low pressure passes nw of
IL Tue night and brings a cold front east through the state with
chance of rain showers and diminishing already during Wed. Temps
cool just a bit behind this system Wed/Thu but still could see
highs in upper 40s to mid 50s.
LONG TERM...Thursday night through Sunday
Milder temps return Friday with breezy southerly winds and highs
back into the upper 50s and lower 60s with even mid 60s se of I-70.
Low pressure passes to north of central IL again Fri/Fri night
brining a cold front through Friday night and next chance of rain
showers Fri and Fri night. Canadian high pressure building down
into the Midwest this weekend to bring colder temperatures back to
the region.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
AREAL FLOOD WATCH ALONG THE ROCK RIVER FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ICE
JAMS/ICE ACTION INDUCED FLOODING EXTENDED THROUGH MON EVENING/00Z
TUE. AS FOR THE FORECAST...STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
WRAPPING AROUND NORTH SIDE OF AR CYCLONE INDUCING CU ROW FIELDS
OFF LK MICHIGAN. EVEN SOME FLURRIES GETTING WRUNG OUT OF THIS
ACTIVITY...SOME OF WHICH IS MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST TO GET INTO THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OR MORE OF THE DVN CWA.
THUS HAVE INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THOSE AREAS WITH A MENTION OF
FLURRIES. THESE CLOUDS MAY ALSO HAMPER WARM UP POTENTIAL IN THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA...IF THEY LAST THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. DEEPENING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
EFFECT IT HAS ON THESE CU ROWS AND FLURRIES. THUS MAYBE SOME
DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..12..
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON SNOW CHANCES THIS MORNING THEN ON CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.
SNOW TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LATEST RAP TRENDS AND TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS SHOW FORCING WEAKENING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH
SNOW DISSIPATING AND EXITING THE FAR SOUTH BY LATE MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-80 WITH
A FEW AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS. TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH ARE CURRENTLY AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING SO ANTICIPATE SNOW TO ACCUMULATE MAINLY ON
ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES IN THESE AREAS. AFTER THE SNOW
ENDS...COLD AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS
ALONG WITH CAA IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORTWAVE TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
MOST OF THE CWA SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY NOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE STRENGTHENING MID-
MARCH SUN SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE MODEL
GUIDANCE THUS WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
TODAY. THIS IS ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID MARCH.
TONIGHT...QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST INTO MICHIGAN. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS BY MONDAY MORNING. IF ANY SNOW
REMAINS FROM THIS MORNING/S EVENT THEN TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH CONTINUE TO APPEAR AT TWO DAYS OF CONTINUAL
WARM ADVECTION...LARGELY WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE. THUS...A SOUTH
BREEZE OF 15 TO 20 MPH FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS
FORECAST...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING
TUESDAY. WE MAY NEED TO MELT OFF SOME SNOW ON MONDAY ....BUT GIVEN
SOME SUN TODAY AND MONDAY...IT SHOULD BE EASILY MELTED OFF BY MID
MORNING...WITH MODEST HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST FORECAST. MONDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF FALL BELOW FREEZING
SHOULD OCCUR IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST...BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RISE LATE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BREEZY AND
MILD TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE FAST MOVING STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS/NAM/UKMET ALL TAKE THE ENERGY AND LOW WELL NORTH OF THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
TRACK OVER OUR CWA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL
SHOWING THIS...AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT YET. STILL...A DRY TUESDAY
LOOKS MOST LIKELY...GIVEN THE WEAK MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WAA.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...IN EITHER POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...OR THROUGH A
SOUTHERN TRACKING ECMWF DEFORMATION ZONE...WE SHOULD GET OUT MAIN
PCPN THREAT. THIS LOOKS TO BE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS WE GO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE WEST
AND STILL QUITE BREEZY...AT LEAST 15 MPH IF NOT 20 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH GUST LIKELY OVER 30 MPH.
THURSDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...MODELS LOOSE CONSISTENCY AS THEY HAVE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE SEVERAL PASSING
WEAKER SYSTEMS...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IF WHICH RELATES TO FRIDAY. A
CHANCE FOR RAIN IS INCLUDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
THIS...ALMOST CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM. GIVEN THAT IT IS MARCH...AND WE
SHOULD NOT HAVE SNOW COVER TO DEAL WITH MID TO LATE WEEK...THESE
SYSTEMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP AHEAD OF
THEM...LIKELY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. TIMING OF THEM WILL BE VERY
HARD...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT LEADING TO A MUCH HIGHER THAN
NORMAL PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURE FORECAST BUSTS.
ERVIN
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
MVFR CIGS HANGING ON IN THE VCNTY OF MLI AND BRL THROUGH AT LEAST
MID AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME DECREASE EXPECTED AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES
HOLD FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS OF LK EFFECT ORIGIN IN
BRISK LLVL NORTHEAST FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF AR-TN VALLEY CYCLONE.
AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY THIS EVENING ALSO LOSS OF FETCH
AND HEATING TO HELP LOWER CLOUDS TO DIMINISH. RIDE OVERHEAD AND
LIGHT EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AT LEAST SOME
MVFR FOG TOWARD MORNING UNDER THESE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT BRL
WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND SOME MELT INTO SFC LAYER. SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MON MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR HENRY IL-ROCK ISLAND-
WHITESIDE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...12
SYNOPSIS...GROSS
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
604 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 600 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Have a couple of bands of heavier precipitation with lighter precip
surrounding them. One ranges from Tell City to Corydon to Goshen,
with reports coming in that this band is producing mostly snow.
Webcam out of Paoli earlier indicated some brief accumulations
there, but light totals. A second band runs from Hartford to E-town
to Harrodsburg. Type is more mixed with this band, but Dual Pol data
indicate that it has a better chance to be snow from Washington
county in KY to Jessamine county. Had a report from Springfield of
all snow and another report of a rain/snow mix east of Bardstown.
Will try and update locations for precip type with graphical
nowcasts on our webpage the next few hours.
Precipitation is starting to end north of that first band, with a
dry line quickly eroding southward into it. Still looking at some
potential for up to an inch of snow/sleet west of the I-65 corridor,
but a better chance to get into the 1-2 inch range east of I-65 in
the advisory area. Still, those accumulations should not last too
long after the precip ends, given warm ground conditions. Road
temperatures are starting to drop some, now in the mid 30s across
southern Indiana, but still in the 40s over central and southern KY.
At some point later in the evening, likely will convert the Winter
Weather Advisory into a Traveller`s Advisory for wet roads that
could freeze once those temps drop down enough. Fortunately the
place where this happens the quickest...our northern Indiana
counties...also have the least total QPF.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
It continues to rain across southern Kentucky at this hour, with the
rain mixing in with sleet across northern Kentucky and southern
Indiana. Reports of sleet stretch generally along the I-64 corridor.
There are a few reports of freezing rain on elevated surfaces across
the Bluegrass region, which is certainly possible, on elevated
surfaces. Ground and subsurface temperatures are still generally in
the 40s, a couple lower 50s for subsurface temps.
It took a little bit to finally saturate across the north today, but
once the moisture worked in it did not take long for the warm nose
at about 870 hPa to wetbulb. Latest aircraft soundings indicate this
nose of warm air is rather shallow yet maximizes at about +2C. It
should not take too much longer to cool that to the point where
partial melting will no longer occur and we transition over to all
snow by late this afternoon and evening. The deformation zone is
setting up across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, pretty
much as advertised.
The latest data, including the RAP have trended the best area of
snow/sleet accumulations a little farther north. The GFS places the
axis of accumulation across southern Indiana and into the far
northern Kentucky Bluegrass region. The NAM accumulation axis is a
little south of this by about one to two counties. The 17Z RAP
(latest as of this writing) still keeps most of the accumulations
south of the Ohio River, but now runs from roughly Jefferson County
Kentucky eastward into the Bluegrass region. The SREF is still the
preferred solution here, which takes into account the both the
northern and southern solutions. The SREF probabilities have seemed
to be the most consistent. So, will continue with the best
accumulation potential being from Perry County in Indiana
east-northeastward to Harrison/Nicholas Counties in Kentucky.
Precipitation will wane late this evening and through the early
morning hours.
Still see no reason to make any changes to the Advisory. Still think
near an inch accumulation for much of the Advisory area, a little
higher (1-2 inches) across the Bluegrass region is on tap. These
accumulations are more likely to occur on grassy areas and elevated
surfaces. With temperatures dropping into the 20s and lower 30s by
daybreak Monday, some slick spots on area roadways could be
possible. If the RAP continues to edge northward with it`s
accumulation axis, then some of the southeastern counties in the
Advisory might be dropped in later updates.
Let`s move on to Monday and warming temperatures this week. Monday
and Monday night will be dry with much lighter winds than today, as
high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures should top
out in the middle to upper 40s during the afternoon hours and drop
off into the upper 20s and 30s Monday night.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
================================
In the long term period, the flow aloft across North America will
remain rather progressive...but fairly zonal. Large negative height
anomalies at 500 hPa will remain located well to the north near
James Bay while an axis of positive height anomalies remains
generally in place across the NE Pacific into Alaska. The
configuration of the upper flow pattern will lead to a storm path
from the NNW to ESE through the period. Two systems look to affect
our region during the extended period. The first will arrive on
Wednesday with a secondary system coming into the region late Friday
and Saturday. This flow pattern will result in more seasonal
temperatures across the forecast area. A moderate warm up is
expected for Tuesday depending on the extent of return flow. A
stronger warm up looks increasingly likely by Friday as a more
robust return flow regime develops in advance of the aforementioned
second system.
================================
Model Preference & Confidence
================================
Overall, the deterministic runs of the GFS and Euro are in fairly
good agreement through the period. There continues to be some
timing issues with regards to the system arriving on Wednesday and
again late Friday and Saturday. However, the timing issues are
showing more convergence with time, so overall confidence is
slightly above normal. Raw model temperatures are a little too cool
and given recent model cold biases, feel that the statistical MOS
guidance is probably a bit better at this point. This would be
especially true Tuesday and Friday afternoon. Generally have gone
on the warmer side of the multi-model consensus which includes the
ensemble solutions. Minimum temperatures look good from a raw model
standpoint. Precipitation timing/amounts have average forecast
confidence, but the overall forecaster confidence trend is on the
upswing.
================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
================================
Overall, milder weather is on tap for the area through much of the
work week. A southerly flow is forecast to take shape late Monday
night into Tuesday. This combined with mid-march sun angles should
result in milder than normal temperatures. As mentioned above, have
gone closer to the statistical guidance here with highs in the lower
to middle 60s in the north and middle 60s down south. Clouds will
increase Tuesday night as the first upper level trough axis and
trailing cold front approach the region. This feature should bring
a band of showers through the region. Have trended the frontal
timing closer to the Euro here with a passage during the day on
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be mild with lows in the
lower-middle 40s and highs on Wednesday topping out in the middle to
upper 50s. Lows Wednesday night look to cool back into the 30s.
High pressure and ridging will build back in for Thursday with highs
warming back into he upper 50s to the lower 60s. A deeper return
flow pattern looks to return Thursday night and into Friday. Friday
looks to be the warmest day of the period. After a morning start in
the lower 40s, temperatures Friday afternoon look to warm into the
upper 60s to near 70 in the north...with 70-72 likely across far
southern KY. With the warmth, this only signals yet another
frontal passage that will occur late Friday night into Saturday
morning. With the warmer profiles and more moisture in the area,
rain showers with some scattered thunderstorms look likely. Again
in the post-frontal wake, we`ll see a cool down after the front
passes with highs on Saturday and Sunday warming into the middle to
upper 50s...while overnight lows remain in the upper 30s to the
lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 138 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Rain has overspread the TAF sites. Across northern Kentucky, the
rain is beginning to mix with sleet. Have had several reports of
sleet from FTK to near LEX. Temperatures will continue to drop as we
moisten given the low surface dewpoints. So, the changeover will
continue through the afternoon, with all snow expected early this
evening for SDF and LEX. BWG should escape the snow. Given ground
and subsurface temps are at least in the 40s, do not expect too much
frozen precip to accumulate. Ceilings are lowering, albeit slowly.
Still expect MVFR conditions at all sites a little later this
afternoon and especially this evening. Precipitation will move out
late this evening into the overnight hours. This should bring some
improvement to ceilings and visibilities. Otherwise, northeast winds
15-20 knots will gust to 25-30 knots this afternoon and early
evening before diminishing as the surface low moves east tonight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday FOR
KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-066-067.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJP
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
327 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
It continues to rain across southern Kentucky at this hour, with the
rain mixing in with sleet across northern Kentucky and southern
Indiana. Reports of sleet stretch generally along the I-64 corridor.
There are a few reports of freezing rain on elevated surfaces across
the Bluegrass region, which is certainly possible, on elevated
surfaces. Ground and subsurface temperatures are still generally in
the 40s, a couple lower 50s for subsurface temps.
It took a little bit to finally saturate across the north today, but
once the moisture worked in it did not take long for the warm nose
at about 870 hPa to wetbulb. Latest aircraft soundings indicate this
nose of warm air is rather shallow yet maximizes at about +2C. It
should not take too much longer to cool that to the point where
partial melting will no longer occur and we transition over to all
snow by late this afternoon and evening. The deformation zone is
setting up across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, pretty
much as advertised.
The latest data, including the RAP have trended the best area of
snow/sleet accumulations a little farther north. The GFS places the
axis of accumulation across southern Indiana and into the far
northern Kentucky Bluegrass region. The NAM accumulation axis is a
little south of this by about one to two counties. The 17Z RAP
(latest as of this writing) still keeps most of the accumulations
south of the Ohio River, but now runs from roughly Jefferson County
Kentucky eastward into the Bluegrass region. The SREF is still the
preferred solution here, which takes into account the both the
northern and southern solutions. The SREF probabilities have seemed
to be the most consistent. So, will continue with the best
accumulation potential being from Perry County in Indiana
east-northeastward to Harrison/Nicholas Counties in Kentucky.
Precipitation will wane late this evening and through the early
morning hours.
Still see no reason to make any changes to the Advisory. Still think
near an inch accumulation for much of the Advisory area, a little
higher (1-2 inches) across the Bluegrass region is on tap. These
accumulations are more likely to occur on grassy areas and elevated
surfaces. With temperatures dropping into the 20s and lower 30s by
daybreak Monday, some slick spots on area roadways could be
possible. If the RAP continues to edge northward with it`s
accumulation axis, then some of the southeastern counties in the
Advisory might be dropped in later updates.
Let`s move on to Monday and warming temperatures this week. Monday
and Monday night will be dry with much lighter winds than today, as
high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures should top
out in the middle to upper 40s during the afternoon hours and drop
off into the upper 20s and 30s Monday night.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
================================
In the long term period, the flow aloft across North America will
remain rather progressive...but fairly zonal. Large negative height
anomalies at 500 hPa will remain located well to the north near
James Bay while an axis of positive height anomalies remains
generally in place across the NE Pacific into Alaska. The
configuration of the upper flow pattern will lead to a storm path
from the NNW to ESE through the period. Two systems look to affect
our region during the extended period. The first will arrive on
Wednesday with a secondary system coming into the region late Friday
and Saturday. This flow pattern will result in more seasonal
temperatures across the forecast area. A moderate warm up is
expected for Tuesday depending on the extent of return flow. A
stronger warm up looks increasingly likely by Friday as a more
robust return flow regime develops in advance of the aforementioned
second system.
================================
Model Preference & Confidence
================================
Overall, the deterministic runs of the GFS and Euro are in fairly
good agreement through the period. There continues to be some
timing issues with regards to the system arriving on Wednesday and
again late Friday and Saturday. However, the timing issues are
showing more convergence with time, so overall confidence is
slightly above normal. Raw model temperatures are a little too cool
and given recent model cold biases, feel that the statistical MOS
guidance is probably a bit better at this point. This would be
especially true Tuesday and Friday afternoon. Generally have gone
on the warmer side of the multi-model consensus which includes the
ensemble solutions. Minimum temperatures look good from a raw model
standpoint. Precipitation timing/amounts have average forecast
confidence, but the overall forecaster confidence trend is on the
upswing.
================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
================================
Overall, milder weather is on tap for the area through much of the
work week. A southerly flow is forecast to take shape late Monday
night into Tuesday. This combined with mid-march sun angles should
result in milder than normal temperatures. As mentioned above, have
gone closer to the statistical guidance here with highs in the lower
to middle 60s in the north and middle 60s down south. Clouds will
increase Tuesday night as the first upper level trough axis and
trailing cold front approach the region. This feature should bring
a band of showers through the region. Have trended the frontal
timing closer to the Euro here with a passage during the day on
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be mild with lows in the
lower-middle 40s and highs on Wednesday topping out in the middle to
upper 50s. Lows Wednesday night look to cool back into the 30s.
High pressure and ridging will build back in for Thursday with highs
warming back into he upper 50s to the lower 60s. A deeper return
flow pattern looks to return Thursday night and into Friday. Friday
looks to be the warmest day of the period. After a morning start in
the lower 40s, temperatures Friday afternoon look to warm into the
upper 60s to near 70 in the north...with 70-72 likely across far
southern KY. With the warmth, this only signals yet another
frontal passage that will occur late Friday night into Saturday
morning. With the warmer profiles and more moisture in the area,
rain showers with some scattered thunderstorms look likely. Again
in the post-frontal wake, we`ll see a cool down after the front
passes with highs on Saturday and Sunday warming into the middle to
upper 50s...while overnight lows remain in the upper 30s to the
lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 138 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Rain has overspread the TAF sites. Across northern Kentucky, the
rain is beginning to mix with sleet. Have had several reports of
sleet from FTK to near LEX. Temperatures will continue to drop as we
moisten given the low surface dewpoints. So, the changeover will
continue through the afternoon, with all snow expected early this
evening for SDF and LEX. BWG should escape the snow. Given ground
and subsurface temps are at least in the 40s, do not expect too much
frozen precip to accumulate. Ceilings are lowering, albeit slowly.
Still expect MVFR conditions at all sites a little later this
afternoon and especially this evening. Precipitation will move out
late this evening into the overnight hours. This should bring some
improvement to ceilings and visibilities. Otherwise, northeast winds
15-20 knots will gust to 25-30 knots this afternoon and early
evening before diminishing as the surface low moves east tonight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday FOR
KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-066-067.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Short Term........MJP
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........MJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
139 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Rain working in from the southwest has overspread our southern
forecast area, yet is trying to overcome dry air across the northern
third of the CWA. As this occurs, surface temperatures are trending
down as we wetbulb. Dewpoints across our northern half are generally
in the low to middle 20s. Gusty northeast winds continue to try to
advect colder air in here. Temperatures are at or below freezing
just to our northeast. So, with some advection combined with
wetbulbing, temperatures should continue to cool through the morning
and afternoon hours. Latest aircraft soundings indicate a very warm
layer of about +7C at about 870 hPa. Have not come across a sounding
with a dewpoint curve though. Models generally have this warm nose
and cool it rather quickly (wetbulbing) as they indicate quite a bit
of dry air at that level.
Afternoon still looks good for a changeover from rain to a mix,
though may have to fine tune that as the day progresses. The 12Z NAM
has arrived and has shifted the main precip band a little farther
north, which lines up more with 06Z GFS. These place the
accumulations along the Ohio River and eastward into the northern
Bluegrass region. Still think snow and sleet amounts these spit out
are a bit high in places. Watching the RAP this morning shows it
ever so slightly fluctuating by about the width of a county or two
between a southern and northern snow/sleet band. However, this band
is farther south than the NAM and GFS, placing the best
accumulations south of the Ohio River. The SREF probabilities have
seemed to be the most consistent and is what was leaned toward
yesterday. With the 09Z SREF data having just rolled in, it still
depicts the best accumulation potential from Perry County in Indiana
east-northeastward to Harrison/Nicholas Counties in Kentucky. The
SREF seems to capture the slightly more northern GFS/NAM and
southern RAP/NMM.
Given this data, see no reason to make any changes to the running
forecast at this point, just a few minor updates in the very near
term. The Advisory will stand as is for now. Believe our northern
most counties in Indiana (Washington, Scott, Jefferson) still have a
chance to pick up around an inch across their south. Our far
southeast, Casey and Lincoln Counties in Kentucky still have a
chance to pick up around an inch in their north.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
...Accumulating Snow Expected This Afternoon and Tonight...
After a beautiful warm day on Saturday, today will bring quite a big
change as wintry weather returns for (hopefully) one last hurrah. A
surface low over Arkansas this morning will track east across the
northern portions of the Gulf Coast states today and this evening. A
large precipitation shield associated with this low will spread into
south central KY by around daybreak or just before and then spread
northward through the morning hours.
Precipitation type is still a challenge with this system. The
forecast hinges on how much cold air will be drawn into the area
today on the northern side of the low pressure system. Central
Indiana this morning has fallen into the mid to upper 30s, so there
is cold air to the north of the forecast area. Additionally, there
is a warm layer aloft that will slowly cool through the day. As
mentioned in previous discussions, this warm layer is not as robust
as in previous systems and therefore will likely not result in
complete melting aloft. This may lead to some sleet as precipitation
transitions from rain to snow from north to south today.
The other challenge with this system is the models are still in some
disagreement as to where a heavier band of precipitation will set
up. The GFS is the farthest north with this band and has it along
the Ohio River while the NAM has it between the Parkways and the
Euro has it across south central KY. Some of the higher resolution
models paint the band just south of the Ohio River into the
Bluegrass region, and this seems a reasonable consensus.
Taking everything into consideration, the forecast remains fairly
close to the previous forecast. It looks like there will be a mix of
rain/snow/sleet across southern Indiana and far north central KY
this morning if the precipitation moves in there that fast. The
transition line will sink southward through the afternoon hours and
into this evening as the colder air filters in. Drier air will
filter in fairly quickly on the back side of the system tonight,
though some lingering freezing drizzle around the Lake Cumberland
area may be possible late tonight. Dry conditions are expected
tomorrow.
Snow totals are tricky given the possibility of sleet and the fact
that initially there will likely be some melting with the antecedent
warm ground. Accumulations will be most likely on grassy and
elevated surfaces, but if there are some heavier bursts of snow
roads may become slick at times. Lowered snow totals just a bit.
Most areas in the Advisory look to receive around an inch with 1-2
inches in the Bluegrass region. Some locally higher amounts are
certainly not out of the question, however. Falling temperatures
tonight also may lead to some slick spots on roadways for the
morning commute Monday.
In addition to the precipitation, winds will become gusty today as
the pressure gradient tightens up across the area. Sustained winds
of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph can be expected.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
A fairly nice work week is in store with overall temps slightly
above normal for a change. The northern stream will remain active
this coming week pushing weak cold fronts through our region Wed and
Fri Night/Sat. Ridging will control the region Tues drawing warm
air northward and allowing temps to rise into the upper 50s and
lower 60s for highs. Tues night the frontal boundary will approach
the area bringing a chance for rain showers late Tues night or Wed.
Long range models vary on timing slightly so will stick with current
forecast for consistency which matches the last few runs of the
ECMWF best. The next front looks to come through sometime Fri night
or Sat. Still a good range in timing/strength amongst models with
this front as well. At this point, neither fronts this week look
too strong or look to contain a great amount of moisture. Think
that light rain showers will likely accompany both fronts. A t-storm
or two may also be possible. Winds may become gusty on either side
of the fronts especially Wed and Sat. Wind gusts in the 20-30 mph
look likely on these days.
As for temps, the area will be in the upper 50s/lower 60s for highs
most of the week. Friday will be a bit warmer, though, in the mid
to upper 60s (maybe even some low 70s) for highs as a strong
southerly wind brings in warmer temps. Low temps will range
throughout the 30s and 40s this week.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 138 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Rain has overspread the TAF sites. Across northern Kentucky, the
rain is beginning to mix with sleet. Have had several reports of
sleet from FTK to near LEX. Temperatures will continue to drop as we
moisten given the low surface dewpoints. So, the changeover will
continue through the afternoon, with all snow expected early this
evening for SDF and LEX. BWG should escape the snow. Given ground
and subsurface temps are at least in the 40s, do not expect too much
frozen precip to accumulate. Ceilings are lowering, albeit slowly.
Still expect MVFR conditions at all sites a little later this
afternoon and especially this evening. Precipitation will move out
late this evening into the overnight hours. This should bring some
improvement to ceilings and visibilities. Otherwise, northeast winds
15-20 knots will gust to 25-30 knots this afternoon and early
evening before diminishing as the surface low moves east tonight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday FOR
KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-066-067.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........MJP
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......MJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
320 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF
OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN PERSISTENT DEEP UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR
JAMES BAY AND MEAN UPR RDG OVER THE W. IN THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS THAT IS DOMINATING ERN CANADA AND THE NE CONUS...00Z H5/H85
TEMPS WERE AS LO AS -45C/-26C AT MOOSONEE AT THE S END OF JAMES BAY.
SFC HI PRES UNDER THE CONFLUENT UPR FLOW IS MOVING INTO NW MN EARLY
THIS MRNG. THE STEADY N WIND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS ADVECTING
COLDER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS. DESPITE THE LLVL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS...WHERE THE PWAT WAS 0.05 AND 0.04
INCH RESPECTIVELY OR ONLY 25 PCT OF NORMAL...GENERAL ACYC NATURE OF
THE LLVL FLOW...AND THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP...SOME SCT LK
CLDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE U.P. BUT AT SOME OF THE
COLDER SPOTS OVER THE WRN INTERIOR...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHTER
WINDS AND THE VERY DRY AIR HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO FALL WELL BLO ZERO.
TO THE W OF THE SFC HI IN THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA...WAD BTWN
THE HI CENTER AND A SHRTV DROPPING SE OVER THE UPR RDG INTO SCNTRL
CANADA IS BRINGING LOTS OF CLDS AND SOME LGT SN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPS FOR TODAY AND THEN
CLD TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS TNGT AS WELL AS CHC FOR SN LATER TNGT
OVER THE W.
TODAY...ARCTIC HI PRES CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SE OVER UPR MI
TODAY AND TO NEAR TRAVERSE CITY BY 00Z MON. EXPECT ANY LK CLDS OVER
THE NRN TIER THIS MRNG TO DISSIPATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HI AND
DIURNAL HEATING. MIXING TO ABOUT H875 AS OBSVD UPSTREAM YDAY ON FCST
SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS REACHING THE 20-25 RANGE NEAR THE WI BORDER
AWAY FM ANY LK COOLING/ICE COVER.
TNGT...AS THE ARCTIC HI CENTER SHIFTS INTO SE ONTARIO BY 12Z MON AND
A SHRTWV SLIDING ESEWD IN THE WNW FLOW ALF ARND PERSISTENT UPR TROF
OVER QUEBEC MOVES TO NEAR LK WINNIPEG...DEEP...LARGER SCALE SSW
FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 280-290K SFCS /H8-6/ WL
RESULT IN INCRSG CLDS W-E. ALTHOUGH SOME LGT SN MAY REACH THE WRN
CWA LATE UNDER THE DEEPENING SATURATION/MORE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF 100KT H3 JET MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV...TENACIOUS DRIER LLVL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ONLY SLOW
MOVING SFC HI PRES OVER SE ONTARIO HELD IN PLACE BY NW FLOW ON THE
WRN FLANK OF QUEBEC TROF SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE LAND CWA DRY THRU
THE NGT. MIN TEMPS WL BE LOWEST OVER THE E HALF CLOSER TO THE SFC
HI...WHERE WINDS WL BE LIGHTER AND WAD CLDS WL ARRIVE THE LATEST...
HELPING TO MAINTAIN PWAT AS LO AS 40-50 PCT OF NORMAL AT NEWBERRY
THRU 12Z MON. INCRSG CLDS AND DOWNSLOPE S WINDS OVER THE W NEAR LK
SUP WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP THERE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SYSTEM SHOULD IMPACT THE CWA...POSSIBLY BRINGING MIXED PRECIP AND SOME
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO PARTS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MINOR PRECIP WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS IS EXPECTED.
FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
AS MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN FAIR AT BEST FOR MOST MODELS
AND MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT IS LIMITED. THE POOR CONTINUITY AND HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IS UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
DRIVING THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF AK. MODEL TO MODEL
AGREEMENT IS NOT ALL THAT BAD IN GENERAL...BUT THE FINE DETAILS
NEEDED FOR PTYPE AND PRECIP AMOUNT FORECASTS ARE FAR FROM
SETTLED...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR WHERE THE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE MODEL SPREAD INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE BETTER OBSERVATION
NETWORK OF THE PACIFIC NW CONUS ON MON. IN A TYPICAL SITUATION WITH
THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...SHOULD START SEEING BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND
HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TUE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LEEWARD OF THE
ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO A
STRONG RIDGE UP UNTIL THIS POINT...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW WELL IT DOES AFTER INTERACTING WITH THE RIDGE. MODELS SHOW
THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AFTER LEEWARD
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS E OF THE ROCKIES AND NRN/SRN JET STREAM
INTERACTION OCCURS ON THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXACTLY WHERE
AND TO WHAT MAGNITUDE THE LOW DEEPENS IS LESS AGREED ON BETWEEN THE
MODELS AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN FUTURE RUNS ANYWAY. MODELS THEN
SHOW THE SFC LOW MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SOMETIME TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. THE 12Z/16 NAM IS FARTHEST NW WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW IN
BRINGING IT ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE 00Z/16 GLOBAL GEM
IS FARTHEST SE IN BRINGING IT FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO NEAR GAYLORD. THE
12Z/16 GFS BRINGS THE SFC LOW FROM NEAR MENOMINEE TO NEAR
NEWBERRY...WHILE THE 00Z/16 ECMWF IS FROM MILWAUKEE TO NEAR THE SOO.
WHILE A MIDDLE OF THE GROUND APPROACH IS CERTAINLY A REASONABLE
APPROACH FOR THE FORECAST...AT THIS POINT IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO
PREFER ANY ONE SOLUTION OVER ANOTHER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ALREADY
DISCUSSED. THE POSSIBILITIES FOR THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM LEAD TO
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE PTYPE AND PRECIP AMOUNT...WITH THE
FARTHER S SOLUTION OF THE GEM FAVORING MORE SNOW BOTH AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES AND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE FGEN AREA THAT ALL MODELS SHOW
TO THE N/NE OF THE SYSTEM. THE FARTHER N SOLUTION OF THE NAM WOULD
RESULT IN LESS OVERALL PRECIP AND MORE OF THAT BEING MIXED OR ALL
LIQUID. THE CONSENSUS APPROACH LEADS TO MIXED PRECIP OVER THE SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND MORE SNOW OVER THE NWRN CWA. AGAIN...THESE
DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COULD NOT
FIND SIGNIFICANT JUSTIFICATION TO SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. IT REMAINS WORTH MENTIONING THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION BUT DETAILS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN. DEFINITELY A TRICKY FORECAST THAT WILL HAVE TO BE FINE
TUNED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO LOWER
MI AND LAKE HURON BY 06Z...AND ALONG THE S MANITOBA/QUEBEC BORDER BY
12Z MONDAY. IN IT/S WAKE EXPECT INCREASING S WINDS WITH HIGH CLOUDS
SLOWLY BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM APPROX
08-15Z AT ALL 3 SITES /WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT IWD/. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY LOWER MONDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT IWD AND CMX
PRIOR TO 18Z WITH LIGHT SNOW...AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM THE N
PLAINS STATES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS INTO TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING HI PRES
CENTER WILL BECOME S AND INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MON UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING HI TO
THE E AND A LO PRES DEVELOPING IN THE NCENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS MAY DIMINISH LATER MON AND MON NIGHT AS THE HI CENTER SLIPS
FARTHER TO THE E AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...WINDS WILL BACK MORE TO
THE E AND INCREASE UP TO 25-30 KTS ON TUE AS THE PLAINS LO MOVES
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE NW UP TO 25 KTS
ON WED INTO THU ONCE THIS LOW SHIFTS TO THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
129 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF
OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN PERSISTENT DEEP UPR TROF CENTERED NEAR
JAMES BAY AND MEAN UPR RDG OVER THE W. IN THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS THAT IS DOMINATING ERN CANADA AND THE NE CONUS...00Z H5/H85
TEMPS WERE AS LO AS -45C/-26C AT MOOSONEE AT THE S END OF JAMES BAY.
SFC HI PRES UNDER THE CONFLUENT UPR FLOW IS MOVING INTO NW MN EARLY
THIS MRNG. THE STEADY N WIND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS ADVECTING
COLDER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS. DESPITE THE LLVL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS...WHERE THE PWAT WAS 0.05 AND 0.04
INCH RESPECTIVELY OR ONLY 25 PCT OF NORMAL...GENERAL ACYC NATURE OF
THE LLVL FLOW...AND THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP...SOME SCT LK
CLDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE U.P. BUT AT SOME OF THE
COLDER SPOTS OVER THE WRN INTERIOR...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHTER
WINDS AND THE VERY DRY AIR HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO FALL WELL BLO ZERO.
TO THE W OF THE SFC HI IN THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA...WAD BTWN
THE HI CENTER AND A SHRTV DROPPING SE OVER THE UPR RDG INTO SCNTRL
CANADA IS BRINGING LOTS OF CLDS AND SOME LGT SN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPS FOR TODAY AND THEN
CLD TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS TNGT AS WELL AS CHC FOR SN LATER TNGT
OVER THE W.
TODAY...ARCTIC HI PRES CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SE OVER UPR MI
TODAY AND TO NEAR TRAVERSE CITY BY 00Z MON. EXPECT ANY LK CLDS OVER
THE NRN TIER THIS MRNG TO DISSIPATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HI AND
DIURNAL HEATING. MIXING TO ABOUT H875 AS OBSVD UPSTREAM YDAY ON FCST
SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS REACHING THE 20-25 RANGE NEAR THE WI BORDER
AWAY FM ANY LK COOLING/ICE COVER.
TNGT...AS THE ARCTIC HI CENTER SHIFTS INTO SE ONTARIO BY 12Z MON AND
A SHRTWV SLIDING ESEWD IN THE WNW FLOW ALF ARND PERSISTENT UPR TROF
OVER QUEBEC MOVES TO NEAR LK WINNIPEG...DEEP...LARGER SCALE SSW
FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 280-290K SFCS /H8-6/ WL
RESULT IN INCRSG CLDS W-E. ALTHOUGH SOME LGT SN MAY REACH THE WRN
CWA LATE UNDER THE DEEPENING SATURATION/MORE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF 100KT H3 JET MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV...TENACIOUS DRIER LLVL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ONLY SLOW
MOVING SFC HI PRES OVER SE ONTARIO HELD IN PLACE BY NW FLOW ON THE
WRN FLANK OF QUEBEC TROF SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE LAND CWA DRY THRU
THE NGT. MIN TEMPS WL BE LOWEST OVER THE E HALF CLOSER TO THE SFC
HI...WHERE WINDS WL BE LIGHTER AND WAD CLDS WL ARRIVE THE LATEST...
HELPING TO MAINTAIN PWAT AS LO AS 40-50 PCT OF NORMAL AT NEWBERRY
THRU 12Z MON. INCRSG CLDS AND DOWNSLOPE S WINDS OVER THE W NEAR LK
SUP WL GREATLY RESTRICT THE DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP THERE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
FOCUS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK IS ON LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT LIFTS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BUT
FIRST THINGS FIRST AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLSN MAY OCCUR ON
MONDAY OVER AT LEAST NORTHWEST CWA.
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NOSING ACROSS CNTRL ALBERTA SHOWING UP WELL ON
WV LOOP. WAVE DIGS ESE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN SLIDES TO THE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR IN ONTARIO BY MONDAY EVENING.
ALL THE MAIN MODELS SHOW A LOT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIFT
OCCURRING WITHIN THE DGZ. MAIN ISSUE IS LOW-LEVEL RH AS THERE IS
SIGNAL THAT DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP MUCH SNOW FM REACHING THE
EASTERN CWA. STRONGEST LIFT VIA THE WAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280-290K SFCS /H8-H6/ OCCURS OVER NW CWA...VCNTY
OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA. MIXING RATIOS TO 2G/KG AT H7 AND THE FOCUSED
LARGER SCALE FORCING POINT TO ACCUMULATING SNOW FM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID-LATE AFTN. IN ADDITION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 20
MPH MAY RESULT IN PATCHY BLSN AS WELL. POTENTIAL THAT BETTER
FORCING/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY EVEN BUMP FARTHER NORTH AS ECMWF AND
NAM SHOWS...SO WILL NOT GO WITH LIKELY POPS QUITE YET...BUT WILL SHOW
HIGHER POP GRADIENT WITH HIGH CHANCES NW WITH SLIGHT CHANCES TO NO
MENTION OF POPS OVER SOUTH AND EAST CWA. TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING
TREND WITH UPR 20S WEST AND LOWER 20S EAST THOUGH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL PROVIDE A BITE TO THE WARMER TEMPS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS PRIMARY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. HINT THERE MAY BE A LEAD
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMING ACROSS UPR LAKES ON MONDAY
EVENING. ECMWF STRONGEST BUT GEM-NH AND EVEN GFS SHOW SOMETHING
SIMILAR. BUMPED POPS TO CHANCE IN THE EVENING FOR MAINLY WEST HALF.
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BETTER FORCING TAKES SHAPE TO THE
WEST MAINLY OVER MINNESOTA ALONG SFC-H85 TROUGH AXIS AND WITHIN
DEVELOPING AREA OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AND DIVERGENCE FM RIGHT ENTRANCE
JET FORCING. NET RESULT IS SHARPER EDGE OF MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
BY TUESDAY. KEPT CHANCES BANKED OVER FAR WEST CWA...WHILE LOWER H85
RH SHOULD KEEP REST OF CWA MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...BARRING ANY MORE
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH. SHIELD OF THICKER MID CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S MOST AREAS...THOUGH A RUN INTO THE LOWER 40S
COULD OCCUR OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST IF CLOUDS THIN OUT.
NOW ONTO THE PRIMARY SYSTEM OF THIS WEEK. SFC PATTERN AND MODEL
FORECAST H85 TEMPS SHOW WARM LAYER WILL BE FACTOR LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND AS 250MB DIVERGENCE INCREASES ATOP STRONG WARM AND MOIST
ADVECTION IN LOW-LEVELS. PERIOD OF MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE FROM 09Z-18Z WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC
FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SFC-H85 LOW FURTHER BOOSTING PRECIP TOTALS ALONG
LK SUPERIOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT EXACTLY WHERE IS THE QUESTION.
CURRENTLY THE LINE BETWEEN SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION /SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN BOTH POSSIBLE BASED ON SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB AND
850-700MB THICKNESSES/ IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER CNTRL CWA. MODELS
HAVE SHOWN TYPICAL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES AND ARE ALSO NOT
AGREEING WELL WITH EACH OTHER AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK UNTIL THE SYSTEM /WHICH IS STILL COMING TOGETHER
OVER THE PACIFIC TO THE SOUTH OF ALASKA AND WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ IS THOROUGHLY SAMPLED BY RAOB NETWORK AND THE MODELS
ULTIMATELY GET HANDLE ON WHERE THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK. LATEST MODELS
HAVE OVERALL TRENDED FARTHER EAST WITH SFC LOW AND COOLER WITH H85
TEMPS. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY LARGE CHANGES TO PTYPE IN GRIDS.
FOLLOWING BLEND OF PREVIOUS MODELS LOCATION OF SFC LOW AND WARM
LAYER...KEPT MENTION OF ALL PTYPES IN FOR WEDNESDAY OVER THE EAST
CWA...WHILE MAINLY HAVE A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET FOR CNTRL CWA...AND
ONLY SNOW IN THE WESTERN CWA.
BEYOND THE SYSTEM...LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW IN WAKE OF THE SFC LOW
AND UPR LAKES IN VICINITY OF TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIP ON COLD SIDE OF SYSTEM PERSISTING WELL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TURNED ALL PCPN BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z THURSDAY. THEN...SMALL CHANCES
FOR SNOW SHOWERS JUSTIFIED FOR AT LEAST FIRST PART OF THURSDAY WITH
HIGHER 1000-850MB RH AND WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW. FOR BOTH OF THESE
PERIODS...INCREASED POPS OVER WHAT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWED.
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS FROM OHIO VALLEY ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES
IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING
AFFECTS FM CLOUDS OR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOULD WANE...ALLOWING FOR
TEMPS TO FALL OFF OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PREFERRED ECMWF
SHOWING MORE NW FLOW ALOFT VERSUS GFS WHICH TENDS TO FLATTEN THE
FLOW TOO QUICK. THUS...DISCOUNTED FARTHER NORTH QPF THAT GFS SHOWS
IMPACTING SOUTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS 06Z FRIDAY. SEEMS MUCH TOO QUICK
AND TOO FAR NORTH. LATEST ECMWF DID BUMP FARTHER NORTH WITH WAVE
MOVING THROUGH...SO KEPT CONSENSUS SMALL CHANCES FOR FAR SCNTRL CWA
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
REST OF EXTENDED FEATURES NW FLOW IN LOW-LEVELS BTWN DEVELOPING LOW
FOR THE NORTHEAST AND SFC HIGH CNTRL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. 15MAR
12Z RUN OF ECMWF WAS SHOWING ANOTHER PUSH OF CHILLY AIR WITH H85
TEMPS NEARING -20C. THOUGH GEM-NH LOOKS LIKE THE GFS FRIDAY BEYOND
THAT IT ALSO SHOWS A COLD PLUNGE BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL NO MATTER WHAT MODEL IS FAVORED...NO SIGNIFCANT OR LASTING
WARM UPS ARE SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO LOWER
MI AND LAKE HURON BY 06Z...AND ALONG THE S MANITOBA/QUEBEC BORDER BY
12Z MONDAY. IN IT/S WAKE EXPECT INCREASING S WINDS WITH HIGH CLOUDS
SLOWLY BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM APPROX
08-15Z AT ALL 3 SITES /WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT IWD/. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY LOWER MONDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT IWD AND CMX
PRIOR TO 18Z WITH LIGHT SNOW...AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM THE N
PLAINS STATES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS INTO TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING HI PRES
CENTER WILL BECOME S AND INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MON UNDER THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING HI TO
THE E AND A LO PRES DEVELOPING IN THE NCENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS MAY DIMINISH LATER MON AND MON NIGHT AS THE HI CENTER SLIPS
FARTHER TO THE E AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...WINDS WILL BACK MORE TO
THE E AND INCREASE UP TO 25-30 KTS ON TUE AS THE PLAINS LO MOVES
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE NW UP TO 25 KTS
ON WED INTO THU ONCE THIS LOW SHIFTS TO THE E.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES AND COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ESSENTIALLY
WASHED OUT THIS MORNING...WITH A SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VA. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AND
COMPLEX...POSITIVELY TILED UPPER TROUGH IS EVOLVING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 1002MB SURFACE LOW
KICKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. AND
EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD IS SPREAD ACROSS GA/SC AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN
NC...WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP NOW ONT HE DOORSTEPS OF THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND WARM
ADVECTION....WILL DRIVE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THERE ARE TWO
MAIN CONCERNS EVOLVING IN THE UPSTREAM RADAR/SATELLITE OBS: 1) A DRY
SLOT SURGING ACROSS NORTHERN AL AND TN AND 2) THE
ORIENTATION/TRACK OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z...WHICH IS WHEN CONFIDENCE IN HIGHEST POPS/QPF OCCURS. THE DRY
SLOT MAY HELP TO CUT DOWN ON PRECIP RATES ACROSS WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA BY AS EARLY AS 21Z...WHILE THE GULF COAST CONVECTION
MAY ACT TO DIRECT THE BEST LOW-LEVEL JETTING AND WARM ADVECTION
TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS. THE LATEST RAP QPF AND HRRR
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY HINT AT THIS...WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL SC AND EASTERN NC. HAVE ADJUST POPS PRIOR TO
NOON TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WITH CATEGORICAL STILL AFTER
NOON. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF LEAD TO NEAR AND INCH IN THE FAR
SOUTH AND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPS ARE LIKELY REACHING THEIR HIGHS FOR TODAY...MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AREAWIDE. EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND SLOWLY STRENGTHENING COLD
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH...AS A SURFACE WAVE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL INTO THE 40S
(MAINLY NORTH) THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAINLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ISSUED FOR MIDNIGHT TO NOON MONDAY FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85...
DIFFICULT FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE NWP GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THE END RESULT IS A COMPLEX AND BUSY
FORECAST WITH DIFFERING IMPACTS...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE MINOR TO
MODERATE.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE ONGOING THIS EVENING AT THE START OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 125KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC WITH A PUSH OF CONSIDERABLY
COLDER AND DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL WANE CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS THE BEST FORCING LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS DRY OUT. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF .10 INCHES WEST TO
.15 INCHES EAST ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE BASED COLD AIR OVER CENTRAL NC. THE NAM
IS CONSIDERABLY COLDER...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
AND FURTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH
WHICH PROVIDES A CLOSER COLD AIR SOURCE REGION AND WHICH DEVELOPS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PUSH THE COLD/DRY AIR FURTHER
SOUTH. USED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE TO PRODUCE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WHICH FALL TO FREEZING AT AROUND 3 TO 4 AM NEAR THE VA
BORDER. THE NAM GIVES A SFC TEMP OF 26 AT KGSO AT 8AM WHILE THE GFS
GIVES A COLD BUT MORE REASONABLE 29. THE 32 DEGREE SFC TEMP LINE
REACHES AS FAR SOUTH AS LOUISBURG....DURHAM AND HIGH POINT MONDAY
MORNING WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS FURTHER NORTH. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET POSSIBLE WHEN MOISTURE IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE ALOFT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON MONDAY FOR OUR NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 95. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT ON MONDAY AS PRECIP EBBS AND THE SURGE OF
COLD/DRY AIR SUBSIDES. IN ADDITION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET
MEANINGFUL ICE ACCRUAL WITH FREEZING RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
IN MID MARCH AT OUR LATITUDE. SO EXPECT MOST OF THE FREEZING RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TO FALL BETWEEN 4AM AND 9AM WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREE TOPS IN THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND REMOVED FROM THE GROUND WHICH SHOULD BE RADIATING SOME
HEAT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 AT THE VA BORDER
TO THE UPPER 30S TOWARD THE SC BORDER.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRYING ALOFT MOVES IN AND CENTRAL NC IS IN A
REGION OF WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN SYSTEMS. SENSIBLE WEATHER IS BEST
CHARACTERIZED AS CLOUDY SKIES WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WITH POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
SLIGHTLY WITH THE ABSENCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOME INSOLATION
THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 34 NEAR THE VA
BORDER TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE SC BORDER.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES GETTING EVEN COLDER THAN MONDAY MORNING. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF DRIVE THE WET BULB FREEZING LINE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE WBZ LINE SHIFTING
FROM WEST-EAST ON MONDAY MORNING TO MORE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT
APPEARS TO GO BONKERS BY DEVELOPING AN INTENSE SURFACE LOW NEAR
SAVANNAH AND DRIVES THE LOW NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.
THERE IS ANOTHER PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN SOME SLEET
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE ULTIMATE IMPACT DRIVEN NOT ONLY BY
THE MOUNT OF COLD AIR BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY BY THE QPF. GUIDANCE
DIFFERS WITH THE AMOUNT AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
PERIOD BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 0.10 TO POSSIBLY 0.20 INCHES
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT THAT FALLS ACROSS THE COLDER AND POTENTIALLY
WINTRY WEATHER AREA. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 27
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE TRIAD TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
CONTINUED CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED ON TUESDAY AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF PUSH
A SURFACE WAVE AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WHILE THE NAM APPEARS LOST
BY DRIVING AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER A BIT AND CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
EVERYWHERE BY MID MORNING BEFORE HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACH THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WAVE.
THREE-DAY QPF VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH NEAR THE VA BORDER TO
1.5 INCHES NEAR THE SC BORDER ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
THE NAM/SREF ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. MUCH OF THAT PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
INSUFFICIENT FOR A FLASH FLOOD OR AERIAL FLOOD WATCH. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. -BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THE GFS AND
ECMWF HANDLE THEM DIFFERENTLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...AMPLITUDE...
AND PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL...THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...WETTER...AND
COOLER THAN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DESCENT CHANCE THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IT SHOULD BE
ALL LIQUID AND FAIRLY LIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES AND
RESULTANT UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE FROPA ON SATURDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE
COLD AIR WEDGE...PRESENT IN BOTH MODELS OVER THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD
WEAKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WEST. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC SATURDAY EVE/NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE SPEED AND ORIENTATION
DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS. HIGH PRESSURE IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY INCREASE
THROUGH SATURDAY...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. PRECIP AND LOW
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH RAIN JUST RECENTLY REACHING THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND
RDU. CEILINGS ARE STILL AT VFR LEVELS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
MVFR BY AROUND 21Z AND THEN TO IFR BY 03-06Z. VSBYS WILL ALSO DROP
TO MOSTLY AROUND 3SM... POSSIBLY LOWER IN HEAVIER RAIN...WHICH IS
MORE LIKELY AT KRWI AND KFAY. A COASTAL WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
CAUSE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE. LATER
TONIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...AND A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGSO AND
KINT...MOSTLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. PRECIP RATES WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
LOW...LIKELY IN THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE AREA TERMINALS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
NORTH AND WEST OF KRDU ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY NOT COME UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1115 AM SUNDAY...
WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE STILL 2.5 INCHES OR GREATER FOR THREE
HOURS OR GREATER...WILL CONTINUE TO REFRAIN FROM ANY FLOOD WATCHES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED QPF. SHOULD NOTE THAT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CONUS MAY IMPACT SOME OF THE EXPECTED HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. CONSISTENTLY IT APPEARS THE PROBABILITY OF MINOR FLOOD
STAGE BEING REACHED IS HIGHEST AT SMITHFIELD WHERE A RIVER FLOOD
WARNING IS IN EFFECT...LESS SO AT CLAYTON...AND NOTICEABLY LOWER AT
OTHER MAINSTEM RIVER SITES EVEN BASED ON THE HIGHEST QPF AVAILABLE
ON THE ENSEMBLE RIVER LEVEL OUTPUT OF THE MMEFS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 17 (MONDAY) ARE...
KGSO...38 DEGREES FROM 2005.
KRDU...32 DEGREES FROM 1892.
KFAY...39 DEGREES FROM 2005.
THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 18 (TUESDAY) ARE...
KGSO...36 DEGREES FROM 1961.
KRDU...36 DEGREES FROM 1892.
KFAY...41 DEGREES FROM 1998.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
MONDAY FOR NCZ007>009-021>023.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...DJF
CLIMATE...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
118 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
KMBX CONTINUES TO INDICATE WEAK ECHOES MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STILL...NONE OF THE SURFACE OBS INDICATE ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. THE 12Z KBIS SOUNDING SHOWS A
VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 800MB-400MB. PRECIPITATION ALOFT IS LIKELY
EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE.
AS A RESULT...UPDATED FIRST PERIOD POPS TO SHIFT SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION FARTHER EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
THE KMBX RADAR IS DETECTING LIGHT ECHOES OVER NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBS HAVE NOT
INDICATED ANY PRECIPITATION HITTING THE SURFACE YET. ALSO...THE
LATEST MODELS HOLD OFF ON PAINTING ANY QPF UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...PULLED POPS FROM THIS MORNING`S FORECAST
AND DELAYED THEM OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE DETERMINING THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE THE 12Z MODELS AS THEY
COME IN TO MAKE A FINAL DECISION THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
EARLY MORNING 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING OVER PATCHES OF STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
UNDER H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
TODAY WITH THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE PASSING OF A
H5 WAVE. DELAYED THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY A
COUPLE HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST RAP / HRRR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX SO DID NOT ALTER PRECIPITATION TYPE AT
THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
AT 3 AM CDT...A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE INTO THE
FRONT RANGE OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. MEANWHILE A COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE WARM
FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO HAVE MOVED INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE AND JAMES RIVER BASINS. GOOD WARM ADVECTION AT H850
AS WELL AS AT THE SURFACE...WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST -
AND EVENTUALLY WEST - BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE
FAR WEST TO RISE INTO THE 50S TODAY...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN.
AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE GFS/EC MODELS AND THE 06Z NAM INDICATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION THIS MORNING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THIS
MORNING...AND KEPT THE SMALL CHANCES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR PERHAPS A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET
BEFORE PRECIPITATION WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN.
TONIGHT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
APPROACHES THE DAKOTAS. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER MONTANA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW SHOULD INSURE MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETS UP MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOW FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY DIP BELOW FREEZING - THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO A
BIT BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING THE AREAL COVERAGE AND LENGTH OF TIME OF
THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN.
THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD OF A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL SURROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES / AMOUNTS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE 00Z MODELS STILL
HAVE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LEADING TO BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME AGREEMENT INITIALLY IN THEIR
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW MONDAY....BUT THEY DIVERGE TUESDAY
WITH THE GFS STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A
00Z GFS / ECMWF BLEND WHICH IS IN LINE WITH WPC.
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT. THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW GATHERS STRENGTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX REMAINS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
EVERYTHING CHANGES TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS COLDER
AIR ARRIVES.
IN REGARDS TO SNOW AMOUNTS...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DISPLAY MUCH
CONFIDENCE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WOULD BE FAVORED FOR THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH WPC
WWD TOTALS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WILL
STICK WITH THE SPS AND HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE THE PASSING OF PERIODIC WAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY APPEAR LIGHT. HIGHS MUCH OF THE
WEEK SHOULD BE IN THE 30S / 40S...WITH LOWS AT NIGHT BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
VFR CONDITIONS/TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OVER
KMOT-KJMS MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z-15Z MONDAY. KISN WILL LIKELY SEE ALL
RAIN WHEREAS KBIS COULD SEE A MIX. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP OVER KBIS DURING THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
AND THEREFORE INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY WITH A VCSH. KDIK SHOULD
REMAIN VFR AND DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
NOTE...ICE IS AFFECTING MANY CREEKS AND RIVERS AND UNTIL THAT ICE
CLEARS...SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN WATER LEVELS ARE LIKELY.
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS...IN THE MISSOURI
RIVER BASIN...
THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR WILLISTON AFFECTING WILLIAMS AND MCKENZIE
COUNTIES. MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
UNTIL THE RIVER NEAR WILLISTON BECOMES FREE OF ICE.
IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN...
SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER AFFECTING MCHENRY COUNTY. MINOR FLOODING
IS FORECAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...TM
HYDROLOGY...TM/AJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
117 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. REGIONAL WSR-88DS NOW SHOWING
A NARROW BAND OF PRECIP FROM JUST WEST OF A LINE FROM BRANDON
MANITOBA TO RUGBY...MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 KTS.
THIS IS A BIT FASTER THAN WHAT WAS ADVERTISED FROM THE MORNING
UPDATE...SO ADJUSTED POPS TO MOVE PRECIP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
A BIT QUICKER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL NOT CERTAIN IF OR
WHAT IS REACHING THE GROUND SINCE THESE ECHOES HAVE JUST DEVELOPED
IN THE PAST HOUR AND HAVE NOT PASSED OVER ANY AUTOMATED STATIONS.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE NOW THAT MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP WILL FALL AS
SNOW GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES...BUT STILL A SMALL PROBABILITY OF A
MIX ON THE BACK EDGE. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO SNOW/FREEZING
RAIN AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO PICK
UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
15 UTC WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORT-WAVE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND
THIS PACKET OF ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH IT...STRONG MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP A
QUICK MOVING BAND OF PRECIP THAT WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 21 UTC. INITIALLY...PRECIP WILL BE
ALL SNOW...BUT MAY TRANSITION INTO A FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX ON THE
TRAILING EDGE AS THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ALOFT RISES ABOVE
FREEZING. FREEZING RAIN MAY BECOME MORE DOMINANT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST MN AFTER 03 UTC AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRYING IN
THE -10 TO -20 C LAYER. MAJORITY OF PRECIP WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST
BY THIS TIME...SO THINK ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5 INCHES MAINLY NORTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM LANGDON TO THIEF RIVER FALLS TO WADENA. A FEW TENTHS
ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. RAP 925 HPA
WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD 35
TO 45 KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 03 UTC. ADIABATIC
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS TO AROUND 900 HPA BY 21 UTC...BUT
TRANSITIONS INTO AN INVERSION AFTER 00 UTC WITH INCREASING MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THESE STRONGER WINDS AROUND
925 HPA WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE LATER THIS EVENING. DID ADD SOME
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MN WHERE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME FALLING SNOW.
ALL THIS TO SAY...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME GIVEN
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP PHASE AND WINDS/BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MN FROM HALLOCK TO THIEF
RIVER FALLS TO BAUDETTE. WILL MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY...BUT PERSONS WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN THIS AREA SHOULD KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST ROAD AND WEATHER CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
DELAYED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING
OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE MAINLY CONCERNS STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THIS HAVE FOLLOWED GFS/ECMWF LOW TRACK SOLUTION WHICH IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN FARTHER NORTH NAM AND FARTHER SOUTH GEM
SOLUTIONS. FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD REMAINS IN QPF BETWEEN GFS AND
ECMWF FOR THE EVENT. EVENT NOT GETTING GOING TIL MONDAY NIGHT AND
AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE LEVEL NOT WHERE I WANT TO BE TO ISSUE
ANY HEADLINES.
FOR TODAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SETTING UP INCREASING
RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. BY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA
APPROACHES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA ON NOSE OF UPPER JET.
BAND OF PCPN SHOULD PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA THIS
EVENING SPREADING SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A MIX
AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT OVERALL BRUNT
OF PCPN SHOULD BE -SN. WILL SEE MUCH MILDER MINIMUMS TONIGHT AS
WARMER AIR PUSHES IN.
AS UPPER TROUGH CROSSES NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY WILL SEE
ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MODELS
DIFFER ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH PCPN WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SETS UP. PHASE WILL
BE A CHALLENGE AND COULD SEE A MIX DEVELOP DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS IT PROPAGATES
ESE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ECMWF/GEM KEEP MID LEVEL WAVE OPEN
AT THIS POINT WHERE THE GFS AND NAM CLOSE IT OFF. THIS HAS MAIN
IMPACT ON QPF POTENTIAL AND DEPTH OF SURFACE LOW. SNOW WILL TAPER
DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW EXITS TO THE EAST.
WITH MAIN IMPACTS IN PERIODS 4-5 AND ALL OF THE ABOVE
UNCERTAINTIES DID NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES BUT WILL POST POTENTIAL IN
SPS/HWO AND WX STORY.
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY...ACTIVE STORM TRACK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ZONAL TO NW 500MB FLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. ONLY SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA IS TIMED FOR
THURSDAY WITH CHC FOR -SN. OTHERWISE MID MARCH NORMALS FORECASTED
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S AND MINS IN THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE
RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30KT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRUSH THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING.
MODELS INDICATE THE THREAT OF IFR CIGS AND/OR BR LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUE. HAVE STARTED THIS TREND WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS INTO MVFR
RANGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE
WESTERLY AND DECREASE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
410 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND POSSIBLY SLEET THIS EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY`S WET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ON ITS EASTWARD PATH ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES THIS ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ON ITS NORTHWEST SIDE AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID-STATE.
MOST RECENT MODELS RUNS INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATE A BAND OF
PRECIP DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA...WHICH
WOULD ALIGN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS PERRY, DAVIDSON, AND UP
INTO MACON COUNTY. HOWEVER THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO BRING ONLY A
SMALL AMOUNT OF QPF...LESS THAN 0.20 INCHES. MOST OF THE AREA OVER
WHICH THIS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT. IT`S THE AREA IN NORTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE INCLUDING STEWART, MONTGOMERY, AND HOUSTON COUNTIES THAT
COULD SEE SOME WINTRY PRECIP AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S. THIS COULD MEAN THESE AREAS AND POSSIBLY AREAS JUST SOUTH OF
THERE...DOWN TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR COULD SEE SLEET WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP...THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AS PRECIP
DIMINISHES AND MOVES EAST. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH A
SATURATED LOWER LEVEL AND FAIRLY DEEP WARM NOSE UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. BY THE TIME THE WARM NOSE ERODES THE SATURATED LAYER
APPEARS ONLY DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE. SINCE ONLY
LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM TO
COLLECT ANY ACCUMULATION THE SPS THAT MENTIONED SOME POSSIBLE
SLICK ROADWAYS MONDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUFFICE..
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE OVER THE WEST ON MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
TAKE THEIR TIME EXITING THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...BUT SHOULD BE
GONE BY MONDAY EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN OUT. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S ON TUESDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL ENTER THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS OUR
AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AS IT MOVES
EAST...WHICH COULD MEAN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. NO REAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE FRONT AND
AS IT EXITS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND
ALLOWS FOR A PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE FINAL CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THIS
FORECAST...THREW IN ISO T AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AIRMASS IN PLACE COULD BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A STORM OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE
MID STATE BY SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 32 52 34 65 / 60 10 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 28 50 34 65 / 50 10 10 10
CROSSVILLE 35 49 34 59 / 70 40 20 10
COLUMBIA 36 51 32 65 / 60 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 37 51 34 63 / 60 20 10 10
WAVERLY 30 51 36 62 / 50 10 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1230 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND IS LOCATED ALONG THE
TN/AL BORDER. SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MS WILL BE MOVING EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER AR WILL BE MOVING EAST AND WILL BRING A CONTINUING
SHOT OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TO LESSEN IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THEREAFTER. AS COLDER
AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW...AREAS NEAR CKV COULD SEE
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AFT 06Z. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR VERY LIGHT
ICE ACCUM THROUGH 12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFT 12Z...EXCEPT
AT CSV WHERE IFR WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/
UPDATE...
LLJ IS STRONGEST EAST OF THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER FAR
NORTHWESTERN AL. AS A RESULT...WE ARE SEEING A DECREASE IN COVERAGE
OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID STATE RIGHT NOW. BUT
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE EXISTS OVER AR WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN TN AND KY INTO MO AND AR. AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD TODAY...THE RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
AGAIN FILL IN. THEREFORE...THE GRID TREND TO KEEP 50 POPS
SOUTHWEST AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ELSEWHERE...CONTINUES TO
LOOK REASONABLE.
OTW...STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. SFC SHOWALTERS TO GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BY 18Z.
AS FOR TODAY`S TEMPS...FALLING TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TODAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST...TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH NOW WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE FINALLY KICKS IT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
FOR NOW...NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. WILL PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE
TEMPS HOWEVER AS A STEEP GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/
UPDATE...MASSAGED PRECIP AND POP GRIDS TO INDICATE A GENERAL
TREND THAT CLOSELY PARALLELS LATEST RADAR LOOPS AND HRRR. ALSO, IN
LIGHT OF LATEST FORECAST RUC SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, HAVE
EXPANDED THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER A TAD FURTHER NORTH
(FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD). OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1244 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH COULD NOT
RULE OUT A MVFR CIG TEMPORARILY KCRP OR KVCT IF PRECIPITATION IS
MODERATE TO HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON (BUT DO NOT EXPECT THAT). RAIN IS
CAUSING HAVOC WITH WINDS...AS WINDS DIMINISH IN RAIN AT TERMINALS.
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 22Z KCRP AND KVCT
BEFORE IT ENDS (HAVE TEMPO)...WITH WINDS NORTHERLY AND GUSTY ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 01Z/02Z. WINDS WILL STAY A BIT GUSTY IN
THE EVENING (BUT LOWER) THEN SHOULD START SEEING THE END OF GUSTY
WINDS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. MAY SEE A FEW MID LEVEL SCATTERED
CLOUDS MONDAY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT OTHERWISE WILL REMAIN VFR AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...DID A FEW UPDATES TO THE FORECAST. SOME
CONVECTION/STRATI-FORM RAIN REMAINING AROUND THE AREA DUE TO POTENT
JET SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS IMPACTS FROM UPPER JET END. FRONT THROUGH
NORTHERN AREAS NOW...AND GOING THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS BY NOON.
LEFT SOME CONVECTION IN FOR THE AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE COAST
(AND OFFSHORE). WIND ADVISORY CRITERION NOT THERE FOR WEBB COUNTY
SO WILL CANCEL IT. FORECAST HIGHS A BIT TRICKY OUT WEST WHERE
SATELLITE SHOWING SOME CLEARING BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE CLOUDS
COME BACK. IN SHORT...DID SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR HIGHS
TODAY...AND ADJUSTED OTHER GRIDS AS-NEEDED FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT TO BETTER FIT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS. ALL
PRODUCTS UPDATED AND OUT.
MARINE...STARTED SCA A BIT EARLIER AS WINDS ON RUC AND NEW NAM WERE
GOING HIGHER EARLIER. NORTHWEST WINDS CLEARED OUT THE SEA FOG SO
THAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLIER. KEPT END TIMING OF SCA THE
SAME FOR NOW...BUT WILL LOOK AT ANY ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. PUT LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THAT IS
IT FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...HAVE ADJUSTED POP/WEATHER FORECAST FOR TODAY BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG CAPE GRADIENT
WITH INITIAL BOUNDARY. CAPE VALUES RATHER LOW...BELOW 1000
J/KG...BUT SFC-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 60KT. MESO MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE SITUATION WELL AT ALL. THINKING THOUGH IS THAT AS THE
UPPER JET SAGS SOUTH THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT...BUT WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SHOWER ACTIVITY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
ALSO SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...WILL ADD CONVECTION INTO ALL TAFS WITH 12Z UPDATE THIS
MORNING. LRD SHOULD ONLY SEE CONVECTION POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT ALL OTHER SITES COULD SEE AT LEAST SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE
SEEMS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. EXPECTED STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP FOR ALL
SITES AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGE PRE
FRONT...AND VFR POST FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST 18 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INITIALLY...HAVE FOG
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS...BUT MOSTLY A LIGHT FOG
SITUATION. SOME PATCHY...BRIEF DENSE FOG ON THE ISLANDS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEEING SOME VIRGA...OR MAYBE SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH INITIAL WIND
SHIFT/LEADING TROUGH. COULD BE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS FROM DEL
RIO TO AUSTIN...BUT MAIN FRONT WITH COLDER/DRIER AIR IS STILL BACK
AROUND MIDLAND TO WICHITA FALLS. SURFACE THETA E FORECAST WOULD
INDICATE THE STRONGER FRONT ACCELERATING FASTER TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS
THIS MORNING...MAYBE CATCHING THE WEAKER FRONT BY THE COAST.
THAT SAID...STILL LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT BEGINNING NORTHWEST ZONES
BY 11-12Z...BUT SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS/COOLER TEMPS WONT BE UNTIL
MID MORNING WEST. SHOULD SEE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH TO THE COAST
BY 18Z. HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST...BUT MAY NEED
TO EXPAND THUNDER POTENTIAL WEST IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE.
LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET CERTAINLY HELPING IN CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THE JET DOES GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHOULD TAKE THUNDER POTENTIAL WITH IT.
HRRR MODEL DOING A VERY POOR JOB THIS MORNING WITH INITIALIZING
PRECIP...NOT INDICATING CONVECTION BETWEEN DEL RIO AND LAREDO AT
ALL.
ALL OF THE ABOVE LEADS TO A TRICKY TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST
FOR TODAY. FIRST...WIND. PRECIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD ALL BEEN PROGGING
A VERY STRONG BURST OF WINDS AT 925MB IN WESTERN ZONES FOR
TODAY...00Z AND 06Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THIS...AND WHAT STRONGER WINDS THEY DO HAVE LEFT ARE FARTHER WEST
OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS BRINGS INTO QUESTION WHETHER WEB COUNTY
CAN REALIZE THE WINDS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
THINKING ON THAT...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR AREAS NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BRIEFLY...SO WILL LET THE
ADVISORY RIDE FOR NOW. WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...MOST
OF WEBB COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY NOT BE GUSTING TO 40 MPH. TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY
TOO...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
WITH COOLER HIGHS...HAVE CANCELLED RED FLAG WATCH FOR THE
AREA...THINKING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE DRY ENOUGH FOR A CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY BENIGN. PRECIP
IF IT LINGERS INTO THE EVENING SHOULD END PRETTY EARLY. WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW STILL OVER THE AREA...BUT
SHOULD SEE TEMPS INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF US.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...DRY AND COOL MON NIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DOES SHIFT EAST MON EVE
AND A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATE MON NIGHT...THEN STRENGTHENS
TUE. SUNNY AND DRY TUE....WARM AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST GIVEN
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND...POSSIBLY NEAR 90 POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME AREAS OF BRUSH
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE. THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN COOL SHELF WATERS
AND INLAND TEMPS ON TUE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AS MOISTURE RETURN IS RATHER LIMITED. THE TAIL END OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SLIP INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND STALL...
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO A GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
NOT COMPLETELY FAVORABLE TO DRIVE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
NEVERTHELESS...LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKED MORE EASTERLY WED AND THU WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO APPEAR RATHER LIMITED...SO NO MENTION OF PRECIP
MENTIONED AT THIS TIME WED OR THU. ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE DEPTH
DOES INCREASE FRI ACROSS COASTAL BEND AND SAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER
FORCING IS RATHER LIMITED THIS FAR SOUTH SO AT THIS TIME HAVE CHOSE
NOT TO MENTION PRECIP IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 72 45 65 44 85 / 40 10 10 0 0
VICTORIA 67 41 63 41 82 / 40 10 10 0 0
LAREDO 70 45 71 49 90 / 40 10 0 0 0
ALICE 71 44 67 41 89 / 40 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 67 46 62 49 75 / 40 10 10 0 0
COTULLA 68 41 70 42 86 / 40 10 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 73 45 67 40 87 / 40 10 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 69 46 64 51 78 / 40 10 10 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...AVIATION