Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/15/14


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1022 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN MILD...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES BACK BY SUNDAY...THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1022 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID 30S TO L40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN DACKS AND SRN VT HAVE DECOUPLED INTO THE MID 20S TO L30S ACCORDING TO THE MADIS/MESONET OBSERVATIONS. THE SFC TEMP-DEWPT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN LARGE AHEAD OF THE SCATTERED LIGHT PCPN OVER WRN NY AND LAKE ONTARIO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT...WHICH IS APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. THE DRY AIR IS PRONOUNCED BELOW THE 700 HPA LAYER BASED ON THE 00Z/KALY SOUNDING. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE LOW-LEVELS TO SATURATE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. THE LATEST RUC13/RAPID REFRESH AND HRRR INDICATES THAT A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE ALY FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A TOP-DOWN APPROACH WAS DONE TO DETERMINE PTYPE WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN. A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER PTYPE WAS DOMINANT WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE SLEET OVER THE SRN DACKS DUE TO A WET BULB COOLING EFFECT. FURTHER EAST...SOME LIGHT SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT AND BERKSHIRES...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IF ANY PATCHY FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ARISES...THEN IT WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS /SPS/. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE OR BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A NON-DIURNAL TREND WAS CONTINUED IN THE GRIDS INTO LATE TOMORROW MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-35 MPH AT TIMES WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN VT AND THE BERKSHIRES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM W TO E EARLY IN THE MORNING. SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS MAY ACT TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES/SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BREAKS OF SUN. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF DEEP MIXING...WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN VALLEY AREAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...DESPITE STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION. IN FACT...SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE OCCUR...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH...OR ABOVE THE WARMER MAV MOS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAY START TO COOL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN MIDDAY SAT INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. SAT NT-SUN...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT REPRESENTING THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS. THE EXPECTATION FOR PERIODS OF CLOUDS...AND PERSISTENT WIND SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV/MET MOS SUGGEST...WITH MAINLY 20S FORECAST FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...DESPITE INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER OF THE MOS FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREAS...AND TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT...CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 84. WILL INDICATE SOME SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SOUTHERN AREAS FOR LIGHT SNOW. FOR TEMPS...EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COLDER MIN TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE CLOUDS MAY REMAIN A BIT THINNER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A COASTAL LOW MOVING EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BASED ON THE LATEST 12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE /ECMWF...CAN GGEM...AND GFS/. HOWEVER...THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE...12Z NAM...AND A FEW OF THE SREF MEMBERS INDICATE A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THAT WOULD GIVE SOME SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED OVER THE FCST AREA BASED THE WPC GUIDANCE...LATEST NAM...AND SOME OF THE 09Z SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE GEFS ARE CLUSTERED WELL SOUTH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MEAN TRACK E/NE OF THE NC/VA COAST. OVERALL...THE TREND IS SOUTH NOW COMPARED TO THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. COLDER AIR FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WELL BE NORMAL WITH MID AND U20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER THE MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN MON NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDING IN FOR THE MIDWEEK...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. H850 TEMPS REMAIN IN THE -6C TO -10C RANGE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH M20S TO L30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS. WARM ADVECTION BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING OFF THE ERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. OVERNIGHT NIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS WITH TEENS IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER 20S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. WED-WED NIGHT...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ALOFT WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE SYSTEM BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE CYCLONE LOOKS TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO W/SW QUEBEC. H850 TEMPS RISE TO CLOSE TO +2C OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT TO TO -2C OVER THE SRN DACKS. MAX TEMPS TREND TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES WITH U30S TO L40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND U30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AT NIGHT. IT ACTUALLY MAY NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL LATE THU MORNING OR AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE NIGHT PERIOD. COLDER AIR MAY FILTER IN FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WHERE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO L30S. THU-FRI...TEMPS WILL STILL BE NORMAL TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THU WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS DIFFERENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH A COLDER AND DRIER DAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING WITH THE H500 UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST BASED ON THE DIURNAL TRENDS WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NW ZONES LATE DAY...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES IN. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO L40S WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO U40S IN THE VALLEYS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES IN THU NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND TN VALLEY WITH FAIR...DRY...AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA. A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING FROM CNTRL NY AND PA. AFTER THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS THROUGH...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST PRIOR TO 06Z...BUT THEN SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION PCPN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A MIXTURE OF LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPACT KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE THIS EVENING...SO EXPECT THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE TO BE LIGHT RAIN...THOUGH WILL MONITOR FOR SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT KGFL/KPSF WITH THE WET BULB COOLING BTWN 06Z-09Z. THE BIGGER ISSUE IS THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS EVENING. LLWS GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO KGFL/KPSF/KPOU WITH THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS INCREASING TO 35-50 KTS. THE WIND SHEAR GROUPS GO TO ABOUT 12Z AT THESE TAF SITES. THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED AT KALB TO 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS. THE LLWS GROUPS HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT HERE. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT 12Z WITH THE PCPN ENDING...AS THE FIRST COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SFC AT 7-14 KTS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE CIGS SHOULD INCREASE TO THE VFR LEVELS BY THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY PM WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE WINDS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL VEER TO THE WEST AT 12-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN. MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN. TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. && .HYDROLOGY... SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...LEADING TO SOME SNOW MELT. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...WHERE LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF LITTLE SNOWMELT...AND LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS...AND SHOULD ALSO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FURTHER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...WASULA HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
204 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...SNOW WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FOR TODAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY BUT FRIGID NIGHT TONIGHT. MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 204 AM EDT...A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE /AROUND 980 HPA/ IS NOW SITUATED NEAR CAPE COD AND IS CONTINUING TO QUICKLY MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. SOME WRAP AROUND AND DEFORMATION SNOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR REGION...MAINLY OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF A COATING TO UP TO AN INCH OR TWO. BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR ALL SHOW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR NOW...BUT LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED LATER THIS MORNING AS SNOW WINDS DOWN. OTHERWISE...SNOW WILL TAPER OFFF BY DAYBREAK WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY FOR THE UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY FALL OVERNIGHT...AS STRONG N-NW WINDS USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. ALONG WITH N-NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COLD WIND CHILLS...WITH VALUES APPROACHING -15 TO -20 DEGREES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO GUST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 35-40 MPH. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY AFTERNOON. BLOWING AND LOCALIZED DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO A PROBLEM FOR THE MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL RELAX BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH H850 TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -20C TO -24C...EVEN WITH THE MARCH SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...LOWER TO MID 20S TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOW (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD) AND GENERALLY A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT UNSEASONABLY COLD...THEY WILL ONLY GET COLDER THURSDAY. THEY LOOK TO TUMBLE ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ALBANY SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO...BUT NOT QUITE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN ONCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE SOUTHERLY WIND ALONG WITH A SUNNY START TO THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 30S...STILL SHORT OF NORMAL BUT MODERATING. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY OUR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF NO MORE THAN A COATING TO TWO INCHES MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS... AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR NOT NEARLY AS COLD A NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE CAPITAL REGION...TO 20S MOST OTHER PLACES. SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT PORTION OF THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE UNDER 0C SO WITH GOOD MIXING AND SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH AROUND 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD AND 40S MOST OTHER PLACES...EXCEPT 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. IT MIGHT GET JUST COLD ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A RELATIVELY QUITE BUT COLD WEATHER PERIOD EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS NOW FORECAST THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE OFF THE COAST WELL TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH NO PCPN MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA. THE ONLY OTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA MAY BRING SOME PCPN TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY FORECAST CHANCE POPS WITH THESE SYSTEM AS THE MOVE THROUGH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER 20S TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE ZERO TO 5 BELOW RANGE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ELSEWHERE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 30S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR ZERO OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE REGION AS A DEEP LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED TO ALL SNOW WITH THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST. LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SWINGS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGINNING TO RISE THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES DUE TO VISIBILITIES/SNOW AT KALB...KPSF AND KGFL. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER A BIT LONGER AT KGFL...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY LATE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE VERY TIGHT TODAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE ADVANCING RIDGE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN. SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN. SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN. SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HSA ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING. MOST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AS WELL...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...ANY RUNOFF SHOULD EITHER SLOW DOWN SIGIFNICANTLY OR END. MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS SAW SOME RISES DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION...BUT NONE CAME CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE...AND THERE WAS LITTLE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT. RIVERS SHOULD SOON CREST...AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY RECEDE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COLD WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TODAY INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH 40S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING...ANY SNOW MELT SHOULD BE SLOW AND NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC ISSUES. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-013. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ049-050-052>054-058>061-063>066. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032- 033-038>043-047-048-051-082>084. MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025. VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS NEAR TERM...FRUGIS SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...GJM AVIATION...IAA HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1237 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 THE TRANSITIONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE WIDE SWINGS IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW WARM TEMPERATURES TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WEST/UPPER TROUGH EAST PATTERN SETS UP...BRINGING SPORADIC LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES SWINGING FROM WELL BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE NORMAL NEARLY DAILY THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 SATELLITE INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE AN AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WAS EXPANDING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. AT THE PRESENT RATE OF MOVEMENT IT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH OUR FAR NORTHWEST BY 18Z...SO WILL BACK OFF ON SKY COVER A LITTLE KEEPING MOST AREAS MOSTLY SUNNY WELL INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE NORTHERN SECTIONS MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL STILL INDICATE THIS SOMEWHAT...BUT LESS CLOUDS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA MOVES EASTWARD. GIVEN MARCH SUN AND THAT RAP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE WARMER WILL RAISE HIGHS MOST AREAS A DEGREE OR TWO LATER TODAY. THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S RANDOLPH COUNTY TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S FAR SOUTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A BIT EARLY BUT THEN STEADY OUT AND EVEN START TO CLIMB BY MORNING. FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT/S FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LOOKING DRIER THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS...WITH NAM AND GFS NO LONGER CARRYING ANY QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING VIRTUALLY NO FORCING WITH THE WASHED OUT FRONT AND Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT IMPLYING SOME SINKING MOTION. MOS NUMBERS ARE NOW DRY FOR MAV AND MET AS WELL. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLES ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VARIABILITY AND ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS ARE SHOWING ANYWHERE FROM DRY TO HIGH CHANCE POPS. WITH THAT KIND OF VARIABILITY PREFER NOT TO GO TOTALLY DRY AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES FOR NOW. THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE RAIN SHOULD IT OCCUR. SATURDAY FAIRLY NEUTRAL ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE BUT 850 MB TEMPERATURES DON/T CLIMB MUCH ABOVE ZERO. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY WENT WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE STARTING TO KEY IN ON A WARM FRONT FORMING SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BRING IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE AND WENT WITH POPS BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LATEST INITIALIZATION SEEMS TO FAVOR THE WETTER EURO THOUGH BY KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PASSES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES A TAD MORE ACTIVE AROUND MID-WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. MEANWHILE...THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 50S BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 131800Z TAFS/... ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 SMALL AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 020 CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA STATE LINE HAS BEEN DRIFTING EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWS THESE CEILINGS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY DISSIPATING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PROLONGED MVFR CEILINGS AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OF CEILINGS ABOVE 050. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE AROUND 180-200 DEGREES AT 8-11 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...JAS VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 THE TRANSITIONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE WIDE SWINGS IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW WARM TEMPERATURES TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WEST/UPPER TROUGH EAST PATTERN SETS UP...BRINGING SPORADIC LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES SWINGING FROM WELL BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE NORMAL NEARLY DAILY THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 SATELLITE INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE AN AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WAS EXPANDING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. AT THE PRESENT RATE OF MOVEMENT IT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH OUR FAR NORTHWEST BY 18Z...SO WILL BACK OFF ON SKY COVER A LITTLE KEEPING MOST AREAS MOSTLY SUNNY WELL INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE NORTHERN SECTIONS MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL STILL INDICATE THIS SOMEWHAT...BUT LESS CLOUDS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA MOVES EASTWARD. GIVEN MARCH SUN AND THAT RAP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE WARMER WILL RAISE HIGHS MOST AREAS A DEGREE OR TWO LATER TODAY. THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S RANDOLPH COUNTY TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S FAR SOUTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A BIT EARLY BUT THEN STEADY OUT AND EVEN START TO CLIMB BY MORNING. FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT/S FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LOOKING DRIER THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS...WITH NAM AND GFS NO LONGER CARRYING ANY QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING VIRTUALLY NO FORCING WITH THE WASHED OUT FRONT AND Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT IMPLYING SOME SINKING MOTION. MOS NUMBERS ARE NOW DRY FOR MAV AND MET AS WELL. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLES ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VARIABILITY AND ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS ARE SHOWING ANYWHERE FROM DRY TO HIGH CHANCE POPS. WITH THAT KIND OF VARIABILITY PREFER NOT TO GO TOTALLY DRY AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES FOR NOW. THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE RAIN SHOULD IT OCCUR. SATURDAY FAIRLY NEUTRAL ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE BUT 850 MB TEMPERATURES DON/T CLIMB MUCH ABOVE ZERO. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY WENT WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE STARTING TO KEY IN ON A WARM FRONT FORMING SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BRING IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE AND WENT WITH POPS BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LATEST INITIALIZATION SEEMS TO FAVOR THE WETTER EURO THOUGH BY KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PASSES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES A TAD MORE ACTIVE AROUND MID-WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. MEANWHILE...THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 50S BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 131500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF KIND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...RESULTING IN SURFACE WINDS BECOMING 190-220 DEGREES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOTHING THAT WILL AFFECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEEDS THROUGH THE COURSE OF TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 22 KTS AT KIND BY END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...TDUD/JAS VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 .UPDATE... NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 THE TRANSITIONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE WIDE SWINGS IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW WARM TEMPERATURES TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WEST/UPPER TROUGH EAST PATTERN SETS UP...BRINGING SPORADIC LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES SWINGING FROM WELL BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE NORMAL NEARLY DAILY THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 SATELLITE INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR REGION...WHILE AN AREA OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WAS EXPANDING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. AT THE PRESENT RATE OF MOVEMENT IT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH OUR FAR NORTHWEST BY 18Z...SO WILL BACK OFF ON SKY COVER A LITTLE KEEPING MOST AREAS MOSTLY SUNNY WELL INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE NORTHERN SECTIONS MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL STILL INDICATE THIS SOMEWHAT...BUT LESS CLOUDS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA MOVES EASTWARD. GIVEN MARCH SUN AND THAT RAP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE WARMER WILL RAISE HIGHS MOST AREAS A DEGREE OR TWO LATER TODAY. THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S RANDOLPH COUNTY TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S FAR SOUTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A BIT EARLY BUT THEN STEADY OUT AND EVEN START TO CLIMB BY MORNING. FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT/S FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LOOKING DRIER THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS...WITH NAM AND GFS NO LONGER CARRYING ANY QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING VIRTUALLY NO FORCING WITH THE WASHED OUT FRONT AND Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT IMPLYING SOME SINKING MOTION. MOS NUMBERS ARE NOW DRY FOR MAV AND MET AS WELL. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLES ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VARIABILITY AND ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS ARE SHOWING ANYWHERE FROM DRY TO HIGH CHANCE POPS. WITH THAT KIND OF VARIABILITY PREFER NOT TO GO TOTALLY DRY AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES FOR NOW. THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE RAIN SHOULD IT OCCUR. SATURDAY FAIRLY NEUTRAL ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE BUT 850 MB TEMPERATURES DON/T CLIMB MUCH ABOVE ZERO. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY WENT WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE STARTING TO KEY IN ON A WARM FRONT FORMING SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BRING IN RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE AND WENT WITH POPS BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LATEST INITIALIZATION SEEMS TO FAVOR THE WETTER EURO THOUGH BY KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PASSES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES A TAD MORE ACTIVE AROUND MID-WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. MEANWHILE...THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 50S BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 13/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOTHING THAT WILL AFFECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEEDS THROUGH THE COURSE OF TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 22 KTS AT KIND BY END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...TDUD VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
148 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...SNOW SEEMS TO BE EXITING THE REGION AT A FASTER RATE THAN WAS ORIGINALLY FORECASTED. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR CLOUD COVER. SOME LIGHT RETURNS ARE STILL MOVING INTO THE SW CWA FROM CENTRAL KY...BUT KSME ASOS HAS YET TO PICK UP ON ANY ACTIVITY FROM THESE RETURNS...SO EXPECT IT IS MAINLY FLURRIES. AS A RESULT...UPDATED SKY...POPS...AND WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH SNOW EXITING THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAY END UP NEEDING TO UPDATE AGAIN IN A COUPLE HOURS TO RID OF SNOW COMPLETELY IF THIS CURRENT RATE OF EXIT CONTINUES. HOWEVER...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION /AND THOSE RETURNS SHOWING UP OVER THE SW/...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME REDEVELOPMENT COULD STILL OCCUR. OTHERWISE...LOADED IN THE LATEST TEMP...WIND...AND DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE VERY WELL ON TRACK WITH THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1110 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS. NEARLY AN INCH OF SNOW HAS FALLEN SO FAR THIS EVENING AT JKL WITH ABOUT AN INCH REPORTED FROM A SPOTTER AT THORNTON IN LETCHER COUNTY. MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE OVER THE NE COUNTIES AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF JKL OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO DROP OFF THIS EVENING THAN EXPECTED AND OPTED TO INCREASE MIN T A DEGREE OR TWO ON AVERAGE. WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ROADS TO BECOME ICY OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ANY LINGERING WATER FREEZING. THE WSW REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER. CONSIDERING THE SNOWFALL AT JKL AND THE SPOTTER REPORT IN LETCHER COUNTY WE HAVE OPTED TO MOVE THE REFERENCE IN THE WSW DOWN TO 2000 FEET. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP. UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 WIND GUSTS HAVE SLACKENED TO 30 MPH OR LESS AND THUS WE HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW IS BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME OF THE RIDGETOPS...PARTICULARLY THOSE ABOVE 2000 FEET ARE BELOW FREEZING WITH THESE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS NOW IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. RADAR TRENDS AND THE 18Z NAM SEEM TO FAVOR THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FEW HOURS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF JKL SOUTH INTO HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW IS NOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK CITY WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS ON OFF FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL TAPERING OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO FLURRIES LATER ON TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT... THE INHERITED LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE. HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT CURVES AS WELL AS WINDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DEEP LOW NOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH ITS COLD FRONT EAST OF KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT WAS ACCOMPANIED AND TRAILED BY THE HIGHEST WINDS OF THE DAY WITH MANY GUSTS TO 45 AND 50 MPH REPORTED IN ADDITION TO A 54 MPH GUST AT THE KNOTT COUNTY MESONET. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE. THESE WINDS ARE BRINGING IN THE SOON TO BE SUB FREEZING AIR WITH MID 30S ALREADY NOTED IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA WHILE MID 40S HOLD IN THE FAR EAST...THOUGH BLACK MOUNTAIN IS DOWN TO 38 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS KICKING IN ACROSS THE AREA AND WE CAN SEE THE RAIN SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA. SOME FLURRIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE HERE AT JKL...AND ALSO IN OUR NORTHERN FRINGES...ON TRACK WITH EXPECTATIONS AND TIMING FROM THE LATEST HRRR. THIS MODEL ALSO HAS BETTER REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW TOWARD DUSK. AFTER REVIEWING THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AND IN PARTICULAR THE HRRR...HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THREE OF OUR NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES WITH VIRGINIA FOR A 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE DEEP LATE WINTER TROUGH CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THEY ALL HAVE ENERGY WRAPPING IN HERE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY BEFORE THE MASS OF IT PULLS OFF THE EAST AND HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THESE HEIGHTS FLATTEN OUT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHALLOW TROUGH MOVES THIS WAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THIS GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE ONGOING WINTER STORM...HAVE LEANED MOST HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE UPSLOPE RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE SNOW WILL LINGER THE LONGEST IN THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. LOOKING AT AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THOSE HIGHER TOTALS MAINLY ON THE RIDGES. DO EXPECT NEARLY ALL SPOTS TO GET A DUSTING OF SNOW EVEN IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE LAG IN THE COOLING OF THE ROADS SHOULD KEEP THEM MOSTLY CLEAR. THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA ARE A BIT DIFFERENT...THOUGH...AS THE UPSLOPE WILL HOLD IN LONGER THERE...TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING OFF QUICKER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE HRRR IS HITTING THEM HARDEST WITH QPF...AND THEY HAVE HIGHER ELEVATION WELL TRAVELED ROADS. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE ISSUED A WSW FOR HARLAN...LETCHER...AND PIKE COUNTIES THROUGH 4Z...MATCHING UP WITH MRX IN WISE COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES AND END LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS MOST PLACES BY DAWN WITH STILL ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO GENERATE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR NEAR ZERO ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUR LATER THURSDAY MORNING WITH SUNSHINE LIKELY EVAPORATING ANY OF THE SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM BY MID AFTERNOON DESPITE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET TOO DEEP INTO THE 30S. A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MILDER NIGHT...BUT THIS WILL ALSO REPRESENT A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SET UP. USED A MODIFIED COLDER VERSION OF THE CONSSHORT FOR TEMPS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN FAVORED THE NAM12 DIURNAL CURVE WITH ADJUSTED CONSALL MAX AND MIN T STARTING POINTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO... USED THE BCCONSSHORT FOR TD AND WINDS WITH THE CONSALL AFTER THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THESE WERE MASSAGED FOR THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE GIVEN ITS POOR HISTORY OF PICKING UP ON LOW QPF UPSLOPE SNOW EVENTS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY 20 TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON THURSDAY. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINED EFFECTS WILL BE TO BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ONLY BE LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAKING ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. ENOUGH COLD AIR LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING THAT PRECIPITATION COULD END AS SNOW. THERE IS NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT IN TIME...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS POSSIBLE. THERE IS POOR MODEL AGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK AND CONFIDENCE IN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DECREASES. AFTER A COLD START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...BUT THE WHEN AND WHERE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA ARE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 SNOW IS CONTINUING TO EXIT THE REGION AT A FASTER SPEED THAN WAS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR CLOUD COVER...WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CIGS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TO LIFT TO MVFR AND VFR LEVELS. THERE ARE STILL SOME RETURNS SHOWING UP OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA...INCLUDING KSME AND KLOZ...THOUGH ASOS/S ARE NOT PICKING UP ON ANY SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...SOME REDEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS COULD NOT BE RULED OUT HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO DID MAKE MENTION OF A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. KJKL SEEMS TO BE IN A CLEAR SLOT...WHILE KSJS IS NOW SNOW FREE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE AFFECTS OF SOME OF THE LLVL CLOUDS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. HOW QUICKLY THESE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LIFT AND MOVE OUT WILL DETERMINE IF AN UPDATE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MADE FOR KSJS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT/MORNING...WITH WINDS CALMING...CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT...AND DRY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-118-120. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
938 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... MILD CONDITIONS RESIDE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A SRN ONTARIO LOPRES SYSTEM AND IS ANALYZED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST STATES AS OF 01Z. WITH THE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS UNTIL THE ERY MRNG...SLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. RAISED OVNGT TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREV FCST...YIELDING FCST LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REACH THE ALLEGHENY FRONT OVNGT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BREAK APART FARTHER EAST DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN HOW WEAK THE SYNOPTIC LIFT IS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE CWA DURING THE MRNG. CAA NEAR THE SFC IS VERY WEAK. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING POTENTIAL ON SAT WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS. AM CONCERNED ABOUT A BRIEF POST-FRONTAL SURGE OF WINDS GUSTING TO TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY LVLS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATION RIDGE LINES SAT MRNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING SO EARLY IN THE DAY IS LOW. DESPITE WEAK COLD ADVECTION...A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND AND FULL SUNSHINE WILL CAUSE MILD CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BUILDING HIGH. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY. DESPITE THE LOW NOT BEING TOO STRONG AND FAR TO THE SOUTH...PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERRUNNING THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE COLD CONDITIONS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WARM AIR NEAR THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE COLDER. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHEST IMPACT TIME OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING MORNING COMMUTE. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRENDING COLDER AND A TAD FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT 03Z THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY HOLD IN A BIT WARMER OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN MD WHERE MIXING WITH RAIN AND SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS. MORNING RUNS OF THE SREF AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE P-TYPE CONCERNS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT GIVEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED TO THE NORTH AND WINDS BACKING AROUND TO THE NORTH...TOUGH TO SEE HOW BL TEMPS STAY ABOVE FREEZING AS LONG AS THEY HAVE SHOWN. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR MODERATE TO PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS NORTH AND WEST OF I-95/METRO AREAS...MORE SO NORTH ALONG I-81 AS PRECIP SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. A BIT CONCERNED WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHWARD SHIFT AND A PRECIP GRADIENT DEVELOPING AS OCCURRED DURING A SIMILAR EVENT A COUPLE WEEKS AGO. EITHER WAY...SITUATION IS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT AND WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED DURING THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT. THE POST 12Z MONDAY TIME FRAME IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN WITH POTENTIAL FOR A DRY SLOT/LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION OR TAPERING OFF ALL TOGETHER. WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS THROUGH MIDDAY/AFTERNOON THEN TAPERING OFF. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY STILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT. LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD FORM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MODEL AGREEMENT INDICATE ANY LOW THAT DOES FORM WOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND STAY OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE EURO AND GFS BOTH WANT TO BRING IN MILDER AIR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS WELL AS BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...ONLY A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THRU SAT NIGHT. SLY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED A BIT AFTER DARK BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET SATURDAY AND SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TOWARD EVENING. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MIXED PRECIP CHANGING TO SNOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TNGT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CURRENT MARINE OBS SHOW GUSTS 15-25 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NO MARINE HAZARDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION AND SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. && .FIRE WEATHER... BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES NEAR OR JUST BELOW 30 PERCENT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA SATURDAY BUT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WILL COORDINATE WITH FIRE OFFICIALS SAT MORNING BEFORE DECIDING ON ISSUING ANY SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE TO AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW ASTRONOMICAL NORMS SHOULD KEEP WATER LEVELS BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO DECREASE. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJL/JRK NEAR TERM...JRK SHORT TERM...BJL LONG TERM...KLW/KRW AVIATION...JRK/BJL/KLW/KRW MARINE...JRK/BJL/KLW/KRW FIRE WEATHER...JRK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK/BJL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 LATEST UPDATE... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 A CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THEN HEAD EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT WILL BRING A STRONG WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE MUCH WARMER AIR SURGES IN. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING THE COLD AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MIXED LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAT WOULD TURN TO FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS JUST HOW WARM DOES IT GET FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF WARM AIR MOVES IN OVER OUR DEEP SNOW COVER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES NEAR AND NORTH OF ROUTE 10 THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. ALSO A BETTER SHOT AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES BACK IN ONCE AGAIN. CURRENT RADAR LOOPS SHOW SNOW FALLING FROM A MID CLOUD DECK OVER EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN HOWEVER THE AIR BELOW THIS IS VERY DRY SO I DO NOT BELIEVE THIS CAN REACH THE GROUND. I DID NOT PUT POP FOR THIS SINCE EVEN IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WOULD NOT BE MEASURABLE. THE NEXT ISSUE IS TEMPERATURES... JUST WHAT WILL THEY DO? CURRENTLY WE HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S IN IOWA AND EVEN IN EASTERN WISCONSIN LOWER 30S ARE COMMON. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 30S WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ALL OF THIS IS HEADING TOWARD SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. ALSO GIVEN THE 35 TO 50 KNOT WINDS OVERNIGHT IN THE 1000 TO 3000 FT AGL LAYER... IT WOULD SEEM TO ME TEMPERATURES MUST RISE OVERNIGHT... SO THAT IS WHAT I HAVE IN THE GRIDS. THE RAP AND HRRR OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION FORECAST SUGGESTS WHAT THE NAM INDICATES THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR AND NORTH OF ROUTE 10 OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER ONE OF THOSE SURGE WARM UPS... EVEN WITH THE SNOW COVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SO WARM (925 MB TEMP REACHED 45F BY 12Z OVER GRR) I HAVE TO BELIEVE HIGHS WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 50 BUT I WENT CONSERVATIVE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE WHILE STILL SHALLOW IS DEEP ENOUGH FOR THE DGZ TO ACTIVATE A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. NOTHING MUCH THROUGH... MOSTLY LESS THAN .05 QPF. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS IN THERE INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM GOES BY TO OUR SOUTH SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF FLURRIES SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S DURING THE DAY. SOME CLEARING AND MUCH COLDER BY SUNDAY MORNING AS AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVES IN FROM. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL HELP TO DRAW DOWN COLDER AIR FROM CANADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AFTER THAT A DEVELOPING PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE EAST. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE LOW MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST WITH THE TRACK. THIS TRACK WOULD RESULT IN WARMER AIR MOVING OVER THE CWA. WE HAVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE GRIDS AND THAT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY THIS FAR OUT GIVEN THICKNESS VALUES IN NEAR 548DAM. AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES WEDNESDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA...SO WE CHANGED THE MIXED PCPN BACK TO SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR THEN REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER SUNSET. AS THIS OCCURS, WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME STRATOCU DEVELOP. WE ONLY WENT SCATTERED WITH IT, BUT I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT BECOME A BROKEN CIG AROUND 1500 FEET. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DECREASE A BIT. HOWEVER, INCREASING WINDS WILL HELP TO MITIGATE THAT AND SO VISIBILITIES LIKELY WON`T FALL BELOW 5SM BR. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 THE PERIODS OF WARMER TEMPERATURE WITH LIMITED RAIN MIXED WITH COLD SNAPS OF LATE HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASE IN ICE DEPTH ON RIVERS AND HAS DECREASED THE MOISTURE TRAPED IN THE SNOW PACK. CURRENT SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK... WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE CHANCES FOR ICE JAM FORMATION AND FLOODING AS WE PROGRESS INTO SPRING. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WDM SHORT TERM...WDM LONG TERM...93 AVIATION...93 HYDROLOGY...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
549 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 .UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 531 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS IDENTIFIED A SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH OF THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...WITH ITS SURFACE REFLECTION LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS PV ANOMALY AND SURFACE LOW WILL RACE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TOGETHER WITH CLEAR SKIES SHOULD MAXIMIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE GONE ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A FEW 60S EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST MN...MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 40S IN WESTERN WI. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE INCREASED THE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE...BUT FEEL THE MOISTURE IS OVERDONE AND EXPECTING MORE OF A LOW STRATUS SCENARIO THAN FALLING PRECIP. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM IS BELOW AVERAGE... PARTICULARLY IN THE LATER PERIODS. THE MODEL SPREAD IS UNUSUALLY LARGE DUE IN PART TO THE COMPLICATED FLOW PATTERN AND SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN IT THAT PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW THINGS DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE DISTURBANCES ARE FAIRLY WEAK WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE CONSIDERABLE MODEL JUMPS. HOWEVER...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY BE EMERGING SOMETIME EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A WSW-SW REGIME. GIVEN THE CURRENT SET OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE SEVERAL MORE RUNS BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE CONVERGENCE TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION. MORE SPECIFICALLY...SEVERAL POTENTIAL PRECIP MAKERS WILL BE TRAVERSING THE MPX CWA IN THE LONG TERM BEGINNING FRIDAY. CAA ALLOWING FOR STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI THROUGH AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PROFILE IS ABOVE -15C...SO THINKING MORE SPRINKLES THAN FLURRIES. MODELS ALSO TEND TO OVERDO THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE IN THESE SCENARIOS...SO DO NOT THINK CHANCES OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE ARE IMPRESSIVE. ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THESE AREAS. THIS TOO WILL BRING LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND COULD PRODUCE A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW. GFS IS PRETTY BULLISH WITH QPF WHEREAS ECMWF AND GEM ARE MORE SUBDUED. PREFER THE MORE SUBDUED SOLUTION WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO CUT OFF. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE EVOLUTION OF THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACKED... DEEPER SYSTEM TO EMERGE OVER THE MIDWEST TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 531 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AND COULD AFFECT AXN/STC THIS MORNING. FOR NOW JUST HAVE SCT CIGS...BUT MAY HAVE TO AMEND FOR BKN IF THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. AGAIN HANDLED THIS WITH A SCT GROUP...BUT COULD SEE MVFR CIGS. KMSP... AT THIS TIME FEEL THAT THE STRATUS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF MSP TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WSW WINDS GUST 15-20KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THE POST FRONTAL CEILINGS COMING DOWN LATER TONIGHT. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. WINDS NNE AT 5-10KTS. SUN...VFR. WINDS E AT 5-10KTS. MON...VFR. WINDS N AT 05KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JRB LONG TERM...BORGHOFF AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
816 PM MDT FRI MAR 14 2014 .UPDATE... LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE PAC NW. SOME LIGHTNING NOTED ALONG PV MAX AS WELL...FROM EASTERN WA TO NORTH CENTRAL ID OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. PER FORCING AND INSTABILITY...SNOWFALL IN THE MTNS WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AND ACCUMULATE TO A FEW INCHES THRU TOMORROW. LOWER ELEVS WILL SEE JUST RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW AT LEAST AT ELEVS ABOVE 4KFT OR SO OVERNIGHT. NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR PCPN TOMORROW AS TROWAL WRAPS BACK SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF. OUR FAR NE WILL ALSO SEE HIGHER CHANCES INVOF SFC TROF...AND AS A PUSH OF COLDER AIR NOSES INTO OUR FAR EAST TOMORROW AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP FOR THE MTNS TONIGHT...IT IS ALREADY SNOWING AT COOKE CITY. HAVE ALSO RAISED POPS/SNOW AMTS IN NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND BIG HORN COUNTIES SAT 12-18Z. FEEL THAT LOCATIONS SUCH AS LAME DEER DIVIDE AND ABERDEEN HILL COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW TOMORROW...ALONG WITH VERY GUSTY NW WINDS. THERE WILL BE WINTRY IMPACTS ON I-90 AND HWY 212 TOMORROW MORNING PER THE WIND AND SNOW. LOOKS LIKE NWLY GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BIG HORNS INCLUDING SHERIDAN...WITH STRONGLY MIXED POST FRONTAL WINDS...AND ISALLOBARIC HELP AS SFC LOW MOVES TO OUR SE. JKL && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN... AN ENERGETIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH SEEN OVER EASTERN WA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 21 UTC WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SAT. FIRST OFF ALL...WE LET THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER BASIN EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER IS BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND IT APPEARS THAT SNOWMELT AROUND HARLOWTON AND TWODOT IS GOING SLOWLY. THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR SLOW RUNOFF...AND SINCE THE RIVER ITSELF HAS MUCH MORE CAPACITY FOR NEW WATER SINCE THE ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT AND STAGES HAVE FALLEN CONSIDERABLY THIS WEEK...THE RISK OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR RISES REMAIN LIKELY THOUGH AND WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES. TONIGHT...A STRONG BATCH OF QG-FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND IT WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE ALOFT...WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM. THE POTENCY OF THE WAVE IS BORNE OUT BOTH BY STARK DRYING IN ITS WAKE UPSTREAM OVER WA AND OR ON AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGES...AND THE LIGHTNING THAT/S ALSO ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE. THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE AND THE MORE RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AGREES WELL AND SUGGESTS RAIN SHOWERS QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE /IN OTHER WORDS...EAST OF A ROUNDUP...BILLINGS AND LODGE GRASS LINE/. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING EMBEDDED IN AN UNSTABLE LAYER...SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY EVEN WHERE WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WOULD NORMALLY NEGATE THAT ACTIVITY. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL QUICKLY WORK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT AFTER 06 UTC BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SO THE BRUNT OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE RAIN TONIGHT...BUT WE HAVE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST AFTER 09 UTC WHEN WET BULB COOLING SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF ALLOWING FROZEN HYDROMETEORS TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. SAT...STRONG LOW- AND MID-LEVEL WINDS WITH 850- AND 700-HPA SPEEDS OF 40 TO 50 KT WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE...AND SIGNIFICANT SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN MT DURING THE MORNING. WE EXPECT A WINDY DAY...WITH A LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OR STRONG LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE KEEPING A BIT OF A LID ON THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE WINDS ALOFT IN MOST AREAS. WE EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AT SHERIDAN WHERE THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME BETTER SUBSIDENCE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THOSE SAME MODELS BACKED OFF A BIT ON WIND SPEEDS IN THE WELL- MIXED LAYER AT SHERIDAN...SO WE HELD OFF ON A HIGH WIND WATCH. THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF MT WILL BE IN LINE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SAT WITH POTENTIAL WRAP-AROUND...TROWAL-LIKE MOISTURE IMPACTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HYSHAM TO LAME DEER. THE 12 UTC MODELS DID BACK OFF ON THAT POTENTIAL A BIT...BUT THE 09 UTC SREF STAYED WITH THAT THEME WITH 70+ PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF MOISTURE...AND THE 18 UTC NAM ARRIVED WITH AN EVEN MORE ROBUST BATCH OF WRAP-AROUND SNOW AS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE HEADS SOUTHEAST. WE DON/T FEEL THIS EVENT WILL NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...BUT THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING. BY SUN...TRANSIENT...BUT DISTINCT RIDGING ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD AND WE STILL EXPECT A VERY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. LEE- SIDE PRESSURE FALLS WILL DRIVE GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LIVINGSTON AREA...WHERE GAP ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE. IT APPEARS WE WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY AROUND LIVINGSTON WITH A LATER FORECAST. THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A 10 TO 15 HPA SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IDAHO FALLS AND LEWISTOWN SUN AND SUN NIGHT...AND THAT IS USUALLY ENOUGH FOR 60 MPH GUSTS AT LIVINGSTON. SCHULTZ .LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI... MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...THOUGH THE ECMWF FORECASTS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MORE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EXIST LATE IN THE EXTENDED AS THEY ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DURING THAT TIMEFRAME...THE GFS FORECASTS A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF WASHES THE TROUGH OUT IN ZONAL FLOW AS ENHANCED TROUGHING TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER ALASKA. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A STORM SYSTEM PUSHES FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A SCENARIO THAT FAVORS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS SUCH...I CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS THERE AND UPPED PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...TOO. IT WILL NOT HURT THAT MOIST...WRAPAROUND...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST HILLS...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL...BUT SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TUESDAY...THE AREA REMAINS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL WORK WITH WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPS ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...SO MILDER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHAT WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SO I INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. STC && .AVIATION... A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR...WITH SOME IFR. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER EASTERN ROUTES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND REMAIN STRONG...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE PREVALENT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 039/050 033/064 041/052 030/045 026/050 031/054 032/053 54/W 01/N 17/R 74/W 21/B 11/B 21/B LVM 032/046 029/055 037/047 024/042 022/047 027/052 028/051 62/J 00/N 19/R 74/J 21/B 11/B 22/W HDN 036/049 031/064 041/054 030/046 028/052 029/055 029/056 76/O 11/N 17/R 75/W 21/B 11/B 21/B MLS 037/042 029/062 040/052 031/044 027/049 028/055 030/054 88/O 11/N 27/R 74/W 21/B 11/B 21/B 4BQ 035/044 026/063 038/055 031/044 027/048 028/054 029/053 77/O 11/B 16/R 75/W 21/B 11/B 00/B BHK 034/038 023/060 037/051 028/042 024/047 027/051 027/051 89/O 11/N 26/R 74/W 21/B 01/B 11/B SHR 032/046 025/061 035/054 028/042 023/047 025/053 024/051 66/O 11/B 16/R 75/W 21/B 11/B 11/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1220 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 436 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 FROM A STRICTLY TEMPERATURE/SKY COVER STANDPOINT...TODAY IS GOING TO BE ANOTHER SPRING-FEVER SETUP WITH HIGHS CLIMBING RIGHT UP TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN ALL AREAS UNDER ESSENTIALLY WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...FOR THOSE WITH POTENTIAL CONCERNS OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THIS IS REALLY THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT...AND IN FACT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DEEMED SEVERE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A CWA-WIDE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE SEPARATE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR MUCH MORE DETAIL ON THESE ISSUES. STARTING OFF WITH THE HERE AND NOW...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THERE ARE VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF WHATSOEVER EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT ONLY WITHIN THE CWA BUT ALSO EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IN NEARLY ALL DIRECTIONS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA DEPICT THE LOCAL AREA TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OF A RIDGE AXIS CENTERED FROM WYOMING-ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...A NEARLY STALLED-OUT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES CHURNING OVER SOUTHERN CA/NV. PUT ANOTHER WAY...THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL WIND MINIMUM IN BETWEEN THE PRIMARY SPLIT UPPER JET STREAMS...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH EXTENDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AREA AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SNAKES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REGIME IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS GENERALLY POSITIONED BETWEEN A TX RIDGE AXIS...AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED WAY TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. AS A RESULT...THE GENERAL PREVAILING BREEZE EARLY THIS MORNING IS SOME VARIATION OF WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS ONLY 5-10 MPH. DESPITE THESE LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZES...THE PRESENCE OF CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED A FAIRLY EFFICIENT TEMPERATURE DROP...AND CURRENTLY HAVE MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES AIMED INTO THE 25-28 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. GETTING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SCENE INVOLVES A CONTINUATION OF THE AREA REMAINING IN BETWEEN THE PRIMARY JET AXES...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY BUT SURELY FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM MORE NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE QUASI-ZONAL AS BOTH BRANCHES OF THE JET SEND LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE THIS...BOTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN-VIEW RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS SHOW A REMARKABLY DRY DEEP-LAYER AIRMASS...AND OTHER THAN MAYBE A VERY LIMITED COVERAGE OF THIN HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE IS DEFINITELY IN STORE. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SHARPEN UP A BIT AS THE DAY GOES ON...IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN CANADA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGRATING DOWN TO NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF MN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS WILL SHARPEN FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN CO...OR GENERALLY REMAINING JUST WEST OF THE CWA. WITHIN THIS PRESSURE FIELD...A COUPLE OF MODEST LOWER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUMS EVIDENT AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SET UP...ONE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS TO SOUTHEAST NEB...AND THE OTHER MORE WESTERLY AND EXTENDING WEST-EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEB. THANKS TO VERY DEEP MIXING UP INTO THE 800-750MB LEVEL...IT WON/T TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH BREEZES WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FROM THE LATE-MORNING TO LATE-AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A BIT OF A LIGHTER WIND REGIME FOCUSING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY AROUND FURNAS COUNTY. IN OTHER WORDS...IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY MUCH OF THE DAY BUT OVERLY WINDY. TEMP-WISE...AFTER HAVING DECENT LUCK THE LAST FEW DAYS BLENDING THE 00Z NAM WITH A RECENT RAP13 RUN TO DERIVE HIGHS...TOOK THE SAME APPROACH FOR TODAY...WHICH YIELDS GENERALLY A 1-3 DEGREE INCREASE IN MOST AREAS...NOW PUTTING MOST PLACES SOMEWHERE IN THE 68-73 RANGE. IN CONTRAST...DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...THUS PLAYING INTO THE HIGH FIRE DANGER OUTLINED BELOW. GETTING INTO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT BEYOND 00Z/7PM...THE PRIMARY NORTHERN STREAM MOISTURE-STARVED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS-MN...AND ONLY GIVING THE LOCAL AREA A GLANCING BLOW. DESPITE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH...EXPECTING NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...AND STILL AVERAGING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITSELF A BIT MORE OBVIOUS DOWN AT THE SURFACE...AS A MODEST COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. INITIALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...MOST PLACES WILL HOLD ONTO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE GENERALLY 5-15 MPH...BUT THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BREEZES WILL SWITCH NORTHWESTERLY AT GENERALLY 10-15 MPH...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 MPH LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR EVEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA BY A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. TEMP-WISE...DESPITE DECENT MIXING BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DECENT TEMPERATURE DROP MAINLY LATE IN THE NIGHT/TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...ONLY TWEAKED PREVIOUS LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY DOWNWARD...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AIMED INTO THE 31-35 RANGE. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 436 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL SUGGEST QUASI-ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ANY APPRECIABLE OMEGA IN ASSOCIATION THIS SHORT WAVE SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A TRAILING MID-TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THIS PERTURBATION EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE PRIMARY MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY APPRECIABLE OMEGA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN WILL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. WEAK OMEGA IN ASSOCIATION WITH TRAILING PERTURBATION MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO PROMOTE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM NAM...EC AND SREF-MEAN. GIVEN THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER WITH MODEST OMEGA AND QUESTIONABLE MID TO LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...OPTED TO GO NO HIGHER THAN ~20% POPS ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM AND SREF-MEAN BOTH SUGGEST THIS PERTURBATION WILL ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN RATHER DRAMATICALLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THUS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS PERTURBATION...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IF REALIZED...ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE AREA VERY LONG...BOTH THE NAM AND SREF-MEAN SUGGEST THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A HEALTHY DOSE OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH A BRIEF BUT SUBSTANTIAL AXIS OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NEAR THE 290K SURFACE...RESEMBLING A TROWAL EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND THEN BACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...LIKELY GRAZING OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM RESPOND BY PRESENTING A BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER OUR SOUTHEAST...WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE. CONTEMPLATED GOING WITH A HIGHER POP ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT...BUT SINCE THE NAM AND SREF-MEAN ARE THE ONLY MODELS SUGGESTING SUCH A SETUP...AND SINCE THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING SUCH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...AND SINCE THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS OR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...OPTED TO KEEP OUR SOUTHEAST IN THE SAME ~20% POP BOAT AS THE REST OF THE CWA. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO START SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY COOL TO SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN ALL THIS..WENT AHEAD WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A LONGWAVE MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...OR PERHAPS PERIODIC MID TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS EJECTING FROM THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS...COULD PROMOTE JUST ENOUGH OMEGA FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF ACCURATELY PREDICTING SUCH ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY POPS. A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN PRESENTED SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS A RESULT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS SHOULD PROMOTE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE INTRUSION OF A COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROVIDE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S AND 60S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND TURN WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 436 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...TODAY CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKE THE OVERALL-WORST DAY THIS WEEK FOR FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA (SINCE SUNDAY OF COURSE)...AND AS A RESULT A CWA-WIDE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 00Z/7PM. BEFORE GOING ON...WANT TO BRIEFLY REMIND THAT FOR OUR CWA CRITICAL FIRE THRESHOLDS ARE THE OVERLAP OF SUSTAINED WINDS AND/OR GUSTS OF 20/25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS FOR 3+ HOURS...IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY VEGETATION (FUELS). IN TODAY/S CASE...ITS REALLY THE LOW RH COMPONENT OF THE EQUATION THAT HAS TIPPED THE SCALES TOWARD RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE...WITH WIND SPEEDS LOOKING A BIT MORE MARGINAL. AS A RESULT OF BUMPING UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND ALSO LOWERING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES...WIDESPREAD RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 10-17 PERCENT RANGE ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS IS ALREADY SOLIDLY INTO CRITICAL TERRITORY..ITS WORTH NOTING THAT HIGH-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT SOME PLACES COULD SEE RH VALUES DROP A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS LOWER YET...AND THIS WILL NEED MONITORED. AS FOR THE WIND ASPECT OF THE SITUATION...THINGS ARE A BIT MORE IFFY AS SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT MAINLY 15-20 MPH IN MOST AREAS...OR GENERALLY JUST BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MIXING UP INTO THE 800-750 MILLIBAR LEVEL PER VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...FEEL THAT POTENTIAL IS PRETTY HIGH FOR SEMI-FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25+ MPH TO MATERIALIZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA CWA AND ALSO MOST KS ZONES. HOWEVER...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF EAST-CENTRAL CO...SOMEWHAT LIGHTER BREEZES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY FURNAS COUNTY WHERE EVEN GUSTS COULD STRUGGLE TO CONSISTENTLY EXCEED 15-20 MPH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT OF A WIND-MINIMUM IN THIS SOUTHWESTERN AREA...HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION GIVEN SUCH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRY FUELS..AND JUST INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE RED FLAG WARNING. LOOKING AHEAD TO FRIDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH DEW POINT READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S TO PROMOTE RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS NEAR 20% ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THANKFULLY...A DECREASING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE AN AFTERNOON SURFACE WIND OF ONLY 5-10 MPH. AS A RESULT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...AND GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD...WILL ALSO HOLD OFF FROM ANY FIRE WEATHER MENTION IN THE HWO. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007- 017>019. && $$ SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH LONG TERM...BRYANT AVIATION...JCB FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH/BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
622 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 436 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 FROM A STRICTLY TEMPERATURE/SKY COVER STANDPOINT...TODAY IS GOING TO BE ANOTHER SPRING-FEVER SETUP WITH HIGHS CLIMBING RIGHT UP TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN ALL AREAS UNDER ESSENTIALLY WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...FOR THOSE WITH POTENTIAL CONCERNS OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THIS IS REALLY THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT...AND IN FACT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DEEMED SEVERE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A CWA-WIDE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE SEPARATE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR MUCH MORE DETAIL ON THESE ISSUES. STARTING OFF WITH THE HERE AND NOW...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THERE ARE VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF WHATSOEVER EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT ONLY WITHIN THE CWA BUT ALSO EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IN NEARLY ALL DIRECTIONS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA DEPICT THE LOCAL AREA TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OF A RIDGE AXIS CENTERED FROM WYOMING-ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...A NEARLY STALLED-OUT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES CHURNING OVER SOUTHERN CA/NV. PUT ANOTHER WAY...THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL WIND MINIMUM IN BETWEEN THE PRIMARY SPLIT UPPER JET STREAMS...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH EXTENDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AREA AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SNAKES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REGIME IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS GENERALLY POSITIONED BETWEEN A TX RIDGE AXIS...AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED WAY TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. AS A RESULT...THE GENERAL PREVAILING BREEZE EARLY THIS MORNING IS SOME VARIATION OF WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS ONLY 5-10 MPH. DESPITE THESE LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZES...THE PRESENCE OF CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED A FAIRLY EFFICIENT TEMPERATURE DROP...AND CURRENTLY HAVE MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES AIMED INTO THE 25-28 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. GETTING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SCENE INVOLVES A CONTINUATION OF THE AREA REMAINING IN BETWEEN THE PRIMARY JET AXES...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY BUT SURELY FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM MORE NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE QUASI-ZONAL AS BOTH BRANCHES OF THE JET SEND LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE THIS...BOTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN-VIEW RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS SHOW A REMARKABLY DRY DEEP-LAYER AIRMASS...AND OTHER THAN MAYBE A VERY LIMITED COVERAGE OF THIN HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE IS DEFINITELY IN STORE. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SHARPEN UP A BIT AS THE DAY GOES ON...IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN CANADA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGRATING DOWN TO NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF MN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS WILL SHARPEN FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN CO...OR GENERALLY REMAINING JUST WEST OF THE CWA. WITHIN THIS PRESSURE FIELD...A COUPLE OF MODEST LOWER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUMS EVIDENT AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SET UP...ONE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS TO SOUTHEAST NEB...AND THE OTHER MORE WESTERLY AND EXTENDING WEST-EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEB. THANKS TO VERY DEEP MIXING UP INTO THE 800-750MB LEVEL...IT WON/T TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH BREEZES WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FROM THE LATE-MORNING TO LATE-AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A BIT OF A LIGHTER WIND REGIME FOCUSING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY AROUND FURNAS COUNTY. IN OTHER WORDS...IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY MUCH OF THE DAY BUT OVERLY WINDY. TEMP-WISE...AFTER HAVING DECENT LUCK THE LAST FEW DAYS BLENDING THE 00Z NAM WITH A RECENT RAP13 RUN TO DERIVE HIGHS...TOOK THE SAME APPROACH FOR TODAY...WHICH YIELDS GENERALLY A 1-3 DEGREE INCREASE IN MOST AREAS...NOW PUTTING MOST PLACES SOMEWHERE IN THE 68-73 RANGE. IN CONTRAST...DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...THUS PLAYING INTO THE HIGH FIRE DANGER OUTLINED BELOW. GETTING INTO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT BEYOND 00Z/7PM...THE PRIMARY NORTHERN STREAM MOISTURE-STARVED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS-MN...AND ONLY GIVING THE LOCAL AREA A GLANCING BLOW. DESPITE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH...EXPECTING NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...AND STILL AVERAGING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITSELF A BIT MORE OBVIOUS DOWN AT THE SURFACE...AS A MODEST COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. INITIALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...MOST PLACES WILL HOLD ONTO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE GENERALLY 5-15 MPH...BUT THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BREEZES WILL SWITCH NORTHWESTERLY AT GENERALLY 10-15 MPH...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 MPH LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR EVEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA BY A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. TEMP-WISE...DESPITE DECENT MIXING BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DECENT TEMPERATURE DROP MAINLY LATE IN THE NIGHT/TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...ONLY TWEAKED PREVIOUS LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY DOWNWARD...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AIMED INTO THE 31-35 RANGE. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 436 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL SUGGEST QUASI-ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ANY APPRECIABLE OMEGA IN ASSOCIATION THIS SHORT WAVE SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A TRAILING MID-TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THIS PERTURBATION EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE PRIMARY MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY APPRECIABLE OMEGA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN WILL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. WEAK OMEGA IN ASSOCIATION WITH TRAILING PERTURBATION MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO PROMOTE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM NAM...EC AND SREF-MEAN. GIVEN THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER WITH MODEST OMEGA AND QUESTIONABLE MID TO LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...OPTED TO GO NO HIGHER THAN ~20% POPS ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM AND SREF-MEAN BOTH SUGGEST THIS PERTURBATION WILL ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN RATHER DRAMATICALLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THUS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS PERTURBATION...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IF REALIZED...ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE AREA VERY LONG...BOTH THE NAM AND SREF-MEAN SUGGEST THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A HEALTHY DOSE OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH A BRIEF BUT SUBSTANTIAL AXIS OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NEAR THE 290K SURFACE...RESEMBLING A TROWAL EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND THEN BACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...LIKELY GRAZING OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM RESPOND BY PRESENTING A BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER OUR SOUTHEAST...WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE. CONTEMPLATED GOING WITH A HIGHER POP ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT...BUT SINCE THE NAM AND SREF-MEAN ARE THE ONLY MODELS SUGGESTING SUCH A SETUP...AND SINCE THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING SUCH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...AND SINCE THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS OR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...OPTED TO KEEP OUR SOUTHEAST IN THE SAME ~20% POP BOAT AS THE REST OF THE CWA. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO START SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY COOL TO SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN ALL THIS..WENT AHEAD WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A LONGWAVE MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...OR PERHAPS PERIODIC MID TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS EJECTING FROM THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS...COULD PROMOTE JUST ENOUGH OMEGA FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF ACCURATELY PREDICTING SUCH ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY POPS. A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN PRESENTED SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS A RESULT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS SHOULD PROMOTE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE INTRUSION OF A COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROVIDE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S AND 60S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE AIRMASS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE TROPOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY AND IN FACT SKIES SHOULD ESSENTIALLY REMAIN CLEAR THE ENTIRE TIME WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY TONIGHT. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...THERE WILL REALLY BE 3 DISTINCT REGIMES. STARTING OFF NOW THROUGH LATE MORNING...DIRECTION WILL AVERAGE WESTERLY AT SPEEDS UNDER 10KT. THEN...THE LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON HOUR WILL FEATURE A DECENT UPSWING IN WIND SPEEDS...BUT THIS TIME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE AND GUST POTENTIAL AT LEAST 20-25KT. BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BREEZES WILL AGAIN DIE BACK DOWN TO SUSTAINED VALUES AROUND 10KT...BUT THEN OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES SUSTAINED AROUND 12 KT MAINLY AFTER 06Z. ALTHOUGH NOT FORMALLY INCLUDED IN THE TAF YET...AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS 20+KT COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 436 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...TODAY CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKE THE OVERALL-WORST DAY THIS WEEK FOR FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA (SINCE SUNDAY OF COURSE)...AND AS A RESULT A CWA-WIDE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 00Z/7PM. BEFORE GOING ON...WANT TO BRIEFLY REMIND THAT FOR OUR CWA CRITICAL FIRE THRESHOLDS ARE THE OVERLAP OF SUSTAINED WINDS AND/OR GUSTS OF 20/25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS FOR 3+ HOURS...IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY VEGETATION (FUELS). IN TODAY/S CASE...ITS REALLY THE LOW RH COMPONENT OF THE EQUATION THAT HAS TIPPED THE SCALES TOWARD RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE...WITH WIND SPEEDS LOOKING A BIT MORE MARGINAL. AS A RESULT OF BUMPING UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND ALSO LOWERING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES...WIDESPREAD RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 10-17 PERCENT RANGE ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS IS ALREADY SOLIDLY INTO CRITICAL TERRITORY..ITS WORTH NOTING THAT HIGH-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT SOME PLACES COULD SEE RH VALUES DROP A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS LOWER YET...AND THIS WILL NEED MONITORED. AS FOR THE WIND ASPECT OF THE SITUATION...THINGS ARE A BIT MORE IFFY AS SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT MAINLY 15-20 MPH IN MOST AREAS...OR GENERALLY JUST BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MIXING UP INTO THE 800-750 MILLIBAR LEVEL PER VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...FEEL THAT POTENTIAL IS PRETTY HIGH FOR SEMI-FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25+ MPH TO MATERIALIZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA CWA AND ALSO MOST KS ZONES. HOWEVER...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF EAST-CENTRAL CO...SOMEWHAT LIGHTER BREEZES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY FURNAS COUNTY WHERE EVEN GUSTS COULD STRUGGLE TO CONSISTENTLY EXCEED 15-20 MPH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT OF A WIND-MINIMUM IN THIS SOUTHWESTERN AREA...HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION GIVEN SUCH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRY FUELS..AND JUST INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE RED FLAG WARNING. LOOKING AHEAD TO FRIDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH DEW POINT READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S TO PROMOTE RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS NEAR 20% ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THANKFULLY...A DECREASING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE AN AFTERNOON SURFACE WIND OF ONLY 5-10 MPH. AS A RESULT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...AND GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD...WILL ALSO HOLD OFF FROM ANY FIRE WEATHER MENTION IN THE HWO. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH LONG TERM...BRYANT AVIATION...PFANNKUCH FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH/BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
439 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 436 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 FROM A STRICTLY TEMPERATURE/SKY COVER STANDPOINT...TODAY IS GOING TO BE ANOTHER SPRING-FEVER SETUP WITH HIGHS CLIMBING RIGHT UP TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN ALL AREAS UNDER ESSENTIALLY WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...FOR THOSE WITH POTENTIAL CONCERNS OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THIS IS REALLY THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT...AND IN FACT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DEEMED SEVERE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A CWA-WIDE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE SEPARATE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR MUCH MORE DETAIL ON THESE ISSUES. STARTING OFF WITH THE HERE AND NOW...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THERE ARE VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF WHATSOEVER EARLY THIS MORNING...NOT ONLY WITHIN THE CWA BUT ALSO EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IN NEARLY ALL DIRECTIONS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA DEPICT THE LOCAL AREA TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OF A RIDGE AXIS CENTERED FROM WYOMING-ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...A NEARLY STALLED-OUT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES CHURNING OVER SOUTHERN CA/NV. PUT ANOTHER WAY...THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL WIND MINIMUM IN BETWEEN THE PRIMARY SPLIT UPPER JET STREAMS...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH EXTENDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AREA AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SNAKES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REGIME IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS GENERALLY POSITIONED BETWEEN A TX RIDGE AXIS...AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED WAY TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. AS A RESULT...THE GENERAL PREVAILING BREEZE EARLY THIS MORNING IS SOME VARIATION OF WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS ONLY 5-10 MPH. DESPITE THESE LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZES...THE PRESENCE OF CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED A FAIRLY EFFICIENT TEMPERATURE DROP...AND CURRENTLY HAVE MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES AIMED INTO THE 25-28 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. GETTING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SCENE INVOLVES A CONTINUATION OF THE AREA REMAINING IN BETWEEN THE PRIMARY JET AXES...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY BUT SURELY FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM MORE NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE QUASI-ZONAL AS BOTH BRANCHES OF THE JET SEND LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE THIS...BOTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN-VIEW RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS SHOW A REMARKABLY DRY DEEP-LAYER AIRMASS...AND OTHER THAN MAYBE A VERY LIMITED COVERAGE OF THIN HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE IS DEFINITELY IN STORE. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SHARPEN UP A BIT AS THE DAY GOES ON...IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN CANADA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGRATING DOWN TO NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF MN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS WILL SHARPEN FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN CO...OR GENERALLY REMAINING JUST WEST OF THE CWA. WITHIN THIS PRESSURE FIELD...A COUPLE OF MODEST LOWER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUMS EVIDENT AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SET UP...ONE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS TO SOUTHEAST NEB...AND THE OTHER MORE WESTERLY AND EXTENDING WEST-EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEB. THANKS TO VERY DEEP MIXING UP INTO THE 800-750MB LEVEL...IT WON/T TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH BREEZES WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FROM THE LATE-MORNING TO LATE-AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A BIT OF A LIGHTER WIND REGIME FOCUSING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY AROUND FURNAS COUNTY. IN OTHER WORDS...IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY MUCH OF THE DAY BUT OVERLY WINDY. TEMP-WISE...AFTER HAVING DECENT LUCK THE LAST FEW DAYS BLENDING THE 00Z NAM WITH A RECENT RAP13 RUN TO DERIVE HIGHS...TOOK THE SAME APPROACH FOR TODAY...WHICH YIELDS GENERALLY A 1-3 DEGREE INCREASE IN MOST AREAS...NOW PUTTING MOST PLACES SOMEWHERE IN THE 68-73 RANGE. IN CONTRAST...DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...THUS PLAYING INTO THE HIGH FIRE DANGER OUTLINED BELOW. GETTING INTO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT BEYOND 00Z/7PM...THE PRIMARY NORTHERN STREAM MOISTURE-STARVED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS-MN...AND ONLY GIVING THE LOCAL AREA A GLANCING BLOW. DESPITE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH...EXPECTING NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...AND STILL AVERAGING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITSELF A BIT MORE OBVIOUS DOWN AT THE SURFACE...AS A MODEST COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. INITIALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...MOST PLACES WILL HOLD ONTO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE GENERALLY 5-15 MPH...BUT THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BREEZES WILL SWITCH NORTHWESTERLY AT GENERALLY 10-15 MPH...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 MPH LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR EVEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA BY A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. TEMP-WISE...DESPITE DECENT MIXING BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DECENT TEMPERATURE DROP MAINLY LATE IN THE NIGHT/TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...ONLY TWEAKED PREVIOUS LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY DOWNWARD...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AIMED INTO THE 31-35 RANGE. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 436 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL SUGGEST QUASI-ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ANY APPRECIABLE OMEGA IN ASSOCIATION THIS SHORT WAVE SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A TRAILING MID-TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THIS PERTURBATION EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE PRIMARY MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY APPRECIABLE OMEGA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN WILL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. WEAK OMEGA IN ASSOCIATION WITH TRAILING PERTURBATION MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO PROMOTE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM NAM...EC AND SREF-MEAN. GIVEN THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER WITH MODEST OMEGA AND QUESTIONABLE MID TO LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...OPTED TO GO NO HIGHER THAN ~20% POPS ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM AND SREF-MEAN BOTH SUGGEST THIS PERTURBATION WILL ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN RATHER DRAMATICALLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THUS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS PERTURBATION...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IF REALIZED...ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE AREA VERY LONG...BOTH THE NAM AND SREF-MEAN SUGGEST THE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A HEALTHY DOSE OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITH A BRIEF BUT SUBSTANTIAL AXIS OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NEAR THE 290K SURFACE...RESEMBLING A TROWAL EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND THEN BACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...LIKELY GRAZING OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM RESPOND BY PRESENTING A BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER OUR SOUTHEAST...WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE. CONTEMPLATED GOING WITH A HIGHER POP ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT...BUT SINCE THE NAM AND SREF-MEAN ARE THE ONLY MODELS SUGGESTING SUCH A SETUP...AND SINCE THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING SUCH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...AND SINCE THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS OR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...OPTED TO KEEP OUR SOUTHEAST IN THE SAME ~20% POP BOAT AS THE REST OF THE CWA. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO START SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY COOL TO SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN ALL THIS..WENT AHEAD WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A LONGWAVE MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...OR PERHAPS PERIODIC MID TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS EJECTING FROM THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS...COULD PROMOTE JUST ENOUGH OMEGA FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF ACCURATELY PREDICTING SUCH ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY POPS. A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN PRESENTED SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS A RESULT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS SHOULD PROMOTE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE INTRUSION OF A COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROVIDE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S AND 60S TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE AIRMASS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE TROPOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY AND IN FACT SKIES SHOULD ESSENTIALLY REMAIN CLEAR THE ENTIRE TIME. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...THERE WILL REALLY BE 3 DISTINCT REGIMES. STARTING OFF NOW THROUGH LATE MORNING...DIRECTION WILL AVERAGE WESTERLY AT SPEEDS UNDER 10KT. THEN...MUCH LIKE ON WEDNESDAY...THE LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON HOUR WILL FEATURE A DECENT UPSWING IN WIND SPEEDS...BUT THIS TIME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE AND GUST POTENTIAL AT LEAST 20-25KT. BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...BREEZES WILL AGAIN DIE BACK DOWN TO SUSTAINED VALUES AROUND 10KT...BUT TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THE LEADING EDGES OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TURN DIRECTION NORTHWESTERLY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 436 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...TODAY CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKE THE OVERALL-WORST DAY THIS WEEK FOR FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA (SINCE SUNDAY OF COURSE)...AND AS A RESULT A CWA-WIDE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 00Z/7PM. BEFORE GOING ON...WANT TO BRIEFLY REMIND THAT FOR OUR CWA CRITICAL FIRE THRESHOLDS ARE THE OVERLAP OF SUSTAINED WINDS AND/OR GUSTS OF 20/25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS FOR 3+ HOURS...IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY VEGETATION (FUELS). IN TODAY/S CASE...ITS REALLY THE LOW RH COMPONENT OF THE EQUATION THAT HAS TIPPED THE SCALES TOWARD RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE...WITH WIND SPEEDS LOOKING A BIT MORE MARGINAL. AS A RESULT OF BUMPING UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND ALSO LOWERING AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES...WIDESPREAD RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 10-17 PERCENT RANGE ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS IS ALREADY SOLIDLY INTO CRITICAL TERRITORY..ITS WORTH NOTING THAT HIGH-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT SOME PLACES COULD SEE RH VALUES DROP A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS LOWER YET...AND THIS WILL NEED MONITORED. AS FOR THE WIND ASPECT OF THE SITUATION...THINGS ARE A BIT MORE IFFY AS SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT MAINLY 15-20 MPH IN MOST AREAS...OR GENERALLY JUST BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MIXING UP INTO THE 800-750 MILLIBAR LEVEL PER VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...FEEL THAT POTENTIAL IS PRETTY HIGH FOR SEMI-FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25+ MPH TO MATERIALIZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA CWA AND ALSO MOST KS ZONES. HOWEVER...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF EAST-CENTRAL CO...SOMEWHAT LIGHTER BREEZES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY FURNAS COUNTY WHERE EVEN GUSTS COULD STRUGGLE TO CONSISTENTLY EXCEED 15-20 MPH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT OF A WIND-MINIMUM IN THIS SOUTHWESTERN AREA...HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION GIVEN SUCH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRY FUELS..AND JUST INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE RED FLAG WARNING. LOOKING AHEAD TO FRIDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH DEW POINT READINGS IN THE LOWER 20S TO PROMOTE RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS NEAR 20% ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THANKFULLY...A DECREASING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE AN AFTERNOON SURFACE WIND OF ONLY 5-10 MPH. AS A RESULT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...AND GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD...WILL ALSO HOLD OFF FROM ANY FIRE WEATHER MENTION IN THE HWO. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH LONG TERM...BRYANT AVIATION...PFANNKUCH FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH/BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1245 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH WEAK 3HR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS THOUGHT FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. ONLY UPDATE WAS TO POPULATE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS WITH TRENDS WELL HANDLED FROM EARLIER FORECASTS. FOR HYDROLOGY...WE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON WITH MINOR FLOODING OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR FURTHER DETAILS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014 LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A CLEAR SKY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HRRR ADVERTISES SOME POTENTIAL OF FOG IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY THE SAME AND RH IS 100 PERCENT. CANNOT RULE THIS OUT AND HAVE ADDED THIS IN THE GRIDS. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS THIS UPDATE AS THE FOREACST ELEMENTS REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014 A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS MOVED THOUGH ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WIND HAS JUST SHIFTED WESTERLY AT JAMESTOWN. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA. ALSO SLOWED THE DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES A BIT THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014 BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST AND MILD WESTERLY FLOW. HYDRO ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN OPERATIONAL FOCUS AND A DETAILED DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW. EXPECT EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST GRIDS AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014 A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG COLD FRONT PROPAGATING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 30S FAR SOUTHWEST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP WITH DRY EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE HIGH. FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE PRECIPITATION FURTHEST WEST. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE ON SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BENEATH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT TUESDAY ONWARD IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE MID NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...KMOT/KISN IN THE MORNING BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THURSDAY...AND BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z THURSDAY FOR KDIK/KBIS/KJMS. EXPECTING SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15KT AND 30KT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 MULTIPLE FLOOD HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MISSOURI BASIN AS ICE CONTINUES TO CONTRIBUTE TO PROBLEMATIC HIGH WATER ON MANY AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THIS INCLUDES BEAVER CREEK NEAR LINTON...CANNONBALL RIVER...CEDAR CREEK...HEART RIVER...LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER AND THE MISSOURI RIVER ABOVE LAKE SAKAKAWEA. ELEVATED AND FLUCTUATING WATER LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CHANNELS BECOME ICE FREE. THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL FORECAST PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE FLOWS AND MOVE THE ICE DOWNSTREAM SUGGESTS ICE IMPACTS COULD BE PROLONGED INTO THE WEEKEND FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THE MISSOURI RIVER IN THE BISMARCK/MANDAN VICINITY WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR ICE JAM POTENTIAL AS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LOCAL ICE REMAINS IN THE CHANNEL...WITH ADDITIONAL ICE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE HEART AND KNIFE RIVERS. RUNOFF IS ALSO LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOURIS BASIN...HOWEVER...INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT SLIGHTLY DRIER SOILS ARE ALLOWING FOR GREATER INFILTRATION. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KS SHORT TERM ...RP KINNEY LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...AYD/KS AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
931 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. DRY SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE SUNDAY BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DRIER TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES BY MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX AND INCREASED COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS PER RADAR. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.... TOP OF MIXING LAYER TOPS OUT AROUND 5000 MSL THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER FORECAST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET...BUT STILL EXPECTED THE WIND TO BLOW THIS EVENING. 925 MB FLOW ON RAP STILL AROUND 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING. INCREASED SPEED A BIT IN THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THIS EVENING. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE THREAT CONTINUES TIL 23Z. WAS ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER PUSHING THE PREFRONTAL LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT. OVERALL LOWERED POPS ABOUT 10 TO 20 PERCENT WITH THAT BAND. ONLY ORGANIZATION NEAR 18Z WAS ACTUALLY BETWEEN PAH AND MEM NOT FURTHER NORTH. STILL THINK A FEW HUNDREDTHS COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT. HAVE CLEARING FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING PREDAWN HOURS IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS...WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS STILL HOLDING OVER MOUNTAINS AROUND 12Z BEFORE EVAPORATING. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ACTIVE WEATHER...AS USUAL...IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THIS STORM...BUT MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...TRENDING COLDER. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMER SOLUN...AND BRINGS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...AND A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT...AND ARE COLDER SOLUNS...AND THE ECMWF AS THE PREFERRED SOLUN FOR THIS SYSTEM ACCORDING TO WPC...WAS USED TO CONFIGURE PRECIPITATION TYPES. NOT ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...PW VALUES GENERALLY RISING TO AROUND 0.6 TO 0.8 INCHES...BUT GOOD DYNAMICS MID LEVELS AND ALOFT...ALONG WITH GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH WILL ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE COLDER AIR WILL EXIST. WITH USING THE COLDER SOLUN...THIS HAS WIPED OUT MOST OF THE MIXED PRECIPITATION...I.E. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. THE LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...AND FOR PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW OR AT LEAST A MIX...PRETTY MUCH CWA WIDE. AT THIS POINT...AM HOLDING OFF ON A WATCH FOR 1 MORE PERIOD...ALLOWING THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE MODEL VARIABILITY. BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES INCLUDING SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHERN WV...AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. AT THIS POINT...GENERALLY HAVE 2 TO 5 INCHES FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV ZONES...WITH 4 TO 6 ACROSS NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. ACROSS THE CRW-HTS METRO AREA AND SOUTH...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHERN WV...AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES IN THE HWO FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WITH A COLD FRONT PROBABLY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH...A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV LATE MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...STRENGTHENING AS IT TRACK EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXITING EARLY THURSDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN...BRINGING A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DECAYING EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS IS ABOUT 18 HOURS FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN ECMWF ENSEMBLES TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH SOME SPREAD IS NOTICED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...SOME CONSENSUS IN NOTICED AMONG ITS MEMBERS. PREFERRED THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND WENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...INCREASE CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHER POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY USED HPC GUIDANCE. TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK. TWEAKED DOWN TEMPS FRIDAY DAY 7 TO COMPROMISE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BETWEEN 06Z TO 12Z. WEAK FRONT ALONG A CLE-CVG LINE ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THROUGH CKB-CRW LINE BY 09Z AND EXITING WV MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. RADAR SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE THE FRONT. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CONDTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY PKB-CKB-EKN LINE. SOME LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 2-4 THSD FT AROUND 12Z OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SHOULD EVAPORATE BY 15Z...VFR CONDTIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA AFT 15Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF WIND AND WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING MAY VARY OVERNIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 03/15/14 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN...WET SNOW...SLEET AND LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... RADAR HAS BEEN GOING UP AND DOWN THIS EVENING. ET`S KEEPING AN EYE ON IT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...JS/KTB SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...JS EQUIPMENT...CH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
756 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. DRY SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE SUNDAY BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DRIER TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES BY MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... TOP OF MIXING LAYER TOPS OUT AROUND 5000 MSL THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER FORECAST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET...BUT STILL EXPECTED THE WIND TO BLOW THIS EVENING. 925 MB FLOW ON RAP STILL AROUND 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING. INCREASED SPEED A BIT IN THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THIS EVENING. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE THREAT CONTINUES TIL 23Z. WAS ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER PUSHING THE PREFRONTAL LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT. OVERALL LOWERED POPS ABOUT 10 TO 20 PERCENT WITH THAT BAND. ONLY ORGANIZATION NEAR 18Z WAS ACTUALLY BETWEEN PAH AND MEM NOT FURTHER NORTH. STILL THINK A FEW HUNDREDTHS COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT. HAVE CLEARING FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING PREDAWN HOURS IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS...WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS STILL HOLDING OVER MOUNTAINS AROUND 12Z BEFORE EVAPORATING. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ACTIVE WEATHER...AS USUAL...IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THIS STORM...BUT MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...TRENDING COLDER. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMER SOLUN...AND BRINGS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...AND A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT...AND ARE COLDER SOLUNS...AND THE ECMWF AS THE PREFERRED SOLUN FOR THIS SYSTEM ACCORDING TO WPC...WAS USED TO CONFIGURE PRECIPITATION TYPES. NOT ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...PW VALUES GENERALLY RISING TO AROUND 0.6 TO 0.8 INCHES...BUT GOOD DYNAMICS MID LEVELS AND ALOFT...ALONG WITH GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH WILL ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE COLDER AIR WILL EXIST. WITH USING THE COLDER SOLUN...THIS HAS WIPED OUT MOST OF THE MIXED PRECIPITATION...I.E. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. THE LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...AND FOR PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW OR AT LEAST A MIX...PRETTY MUCH CWA WIDE. AT THIS POINT...AM HOLDING OFF ON A WATCH FOR 1 MORE PERIOD...ALLOWING THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE MODEL VARIABILITY. BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES INCLUDING SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHERN WV...AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. AT THIS POINT...GENERALLY HAVE 2 TO 5 INCHES FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV ZONES...WITH 4 TO 6 ACROSS NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. ACROSS THE CRW-HTS METRO AREA AND SOUTH...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHERN WV...AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES IN THE HWO FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WITH A COLD FRONT PROBABLY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH...A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV LATE MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...STRENGTHENING AS IT TRACK EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXITING EARLY THURSDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN...BRINGING A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DECAYING EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS IS ABOUT 18 HOURS FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN ECMWF ENSEMBLES TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH SOME SPREAD IS NOTICED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...SOME CONSENSUS IN NOTICED AMONG ITS MEMBERS. PREFERRED THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND WENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...INCREASE CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHER POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY USED HPC GUIDANCE. TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK. TWEAKED DOWN TEMPS FRIDAY DAY 7 TO COMPROMISE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BETWEEN 06Z TO 12Z. WEAK FRONT ALONG A CLE-CVG LINE ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THROUGH CKB-CRW LINE BY 09Z AND EXITING WV MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. RADAR SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE THE FRONT. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CONDTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY PKB-CKB-EKN LINE. SOME LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 2-4 THSD FT AROUND 12Z OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SHOULD EVAPORATE BY 15Z...VFR CONDTIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA AFT 15Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF WIND AND WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING MAY VARY OVERNIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 03/15/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN...WET SNOW...SLEET AND LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... RADAR HAS BEEN GOING UP AND DOWN THIS EVENING. SEEMS TO BE WORKING FOR NOW. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...JS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
746 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES EARLY SATURDAY. SUNDAY A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE DECREASING AFTER SUNSET...ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO TALK ABOUT THIS. CLOUDS ALSO ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THAT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING FROM NW PA DOWN TO MFD AND EAST. COLDER AIR WILL BE FLOWING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE SNOW BELT. THE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS. NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MOISTURE IS INCREASING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE TO OUR NORTHWEST A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH ITS LIMITED MOISTURE...WAS APPROACHING. SKIES ACROSS THE AREA NOW ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ALTHOUGH EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS THESE TWO FEATURES CONVERGE ON THE REGION. FOLLOWED THE NAM TIMING NEAR TERM. BY EARLY EVENING THE NAM ALONG WITH THE HRRR SHOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS BASICALLY ON A LINE FROM KERI TO KMFD...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS. FEEL THE MAV GUIDANCE POPS ARE OVERSTATED AND WILL GO CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE CENTRAL AND WEST UP TO LIKELY JUST IN NWRN PA. PTYPE LIKELY RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW FOR ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 30. WINDS QUITE GUSTY AND CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN A FEW SPOTS BUT OVERALL ARE BELOW CRITERIA. DO EXPECT WINDS TO BE DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS NWRN PA AT AROUND -8 TO -10C. COULD BUBBLE A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE SO CONTINUED A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NWRN PA SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. DONT EXPECT IT TO AM MOUNT TO MUCH. SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OVERSPREADS THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE LOW MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE MODELS SHOW THE CLOUDS AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM REACHING NORTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO WITH THE CLOUDS EXTENDING FURTHER NORTH INTO NRN OHIO. THE NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE PRECIP ACCUMULATING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER INCH SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS KEEPS IT ALL SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL BRING A CHANCE POP INTO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A LITTLE LEFTOVER MONDAY FAR SOUTHEAST BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE A DRY DAY. TEMPS BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS THROUGH A FAST UPPER LEVEL ATTEMPT AT ZONAL FLOW. EACH SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PICK UP ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE AS THEY PASS BUT WILL BE ENOUGH OF A NUISANCE THAT WE WILL NEED TO MENTION SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. RAIN MAINLY DURING THE DAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF A SEASONAL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS LOWER MI AND NW IND. SW GUSTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND A SHIFT TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM CLE/MFD AND POINTS EAST BETWEEN NOW AND 6Z. AFTER THAT COLDER AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AND WE MAY SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF KCLE. EXPANDED THE MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. ENOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A LOWER DECK DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING...LIFTING SATURDAY MORNING TO VFR. SOME WEST GUSTS SATURDAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER 0Z SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MAINLY SOUTH IN LIGHT SNOW. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON THE LAKE UNTIL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE EAST END OF THE LAKE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. SINCE WE ARE IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IT IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO GET THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE. HOWEVER WE STILL COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO NEED A GALE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ONTO THE LAKE FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW PASSES BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL EXCEED 30 KNOTS. WE WILL THEN MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ITS WAKE. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...MULLEN AVIATION...OUDEMAN MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
845 AM PDT THU MAR 13 2014 .SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOME AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE COQUILLE VALLEY, UMPQUA VALLEY, GRANTS PASS AREA AND ILLINOIS VALLEY. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF LATE THIS MORNING. THEN EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY. HAVE ADDED PATCHY MORNING FOG AND HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INLAND WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WEAK WARM FRONT INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW, MAINLY ALONG THE CASCADES AND WESTWARD IN OREGON. && .AVIATION... BASED ON THE 13/12Z TAF CYCLE...ASIDE FROM MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION INLAND WILL BE SOME BRIEF IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH 17Z NEAR ROSEBURG AND IN GRANTS PASS AREA AND INTO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CIGS LOWER TO MVFR AT THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .MARINE...THE LATEST OB AT BUOY 15 SHOWS GUSTY NORTH WINDS, BUT SO FAR HAVE REMAINED BELOW SMALL CRAFT. THE RAP 13 APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. MODERATE WEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS MORNING, THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE WATCH BULLETIN APPEARS A BIT UNDERDONE WITH THE WAVE HEIGHT AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE SWAN SOLUTION, THIS HAVE EXTENDED THE END TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY. WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. THE WAVE WATCH AND ENP WAVE MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE WESTERLY SWELL WILL DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...PEAKING OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND EC DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY. THE EC IS STRONGER AND GFS IS WEAKER AND SLOWER. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO FOR THE WIND FORECAST. -PETRUCELLI && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM PDT THU MAR 13 2014/ SHORT TERM...THE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST SIDE TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUD OVER THE WEST SIDE THIS MORNING, WE WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA AND ILLINOIS BASINS AS TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE LOW AND THESE AREAS ARE PRONE TO SUCH OCCURRENCES. IT IS ALREADY STARTING TO HAPPEN ALONG THE COOS COAST, PER SATELLITE. LIKE YESTERDAY, THIS SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING, PERHAPS LASTING LONGER AT THE COAST THOUGH. DON`T THINK IT WILL HAPPEN IN THE ROGUE VALLEY, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT IN THAT REGARD. ASIDE FROM THE MORNING CLOUD/FOG, MOST OF US WILL ONLY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUD TODAY, BUT THERE IS A PRETTY OBVIOUS AREA OF MARINE STRATUS JUST OUTSIDE OUR MARINE WATERS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ONSHORE TONIGHT. THIS PUSH WILL MEAN MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY AT THE COAST THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY. SOME OF THIS COOLING WILL ALSO BE FELT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN, BUT THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE WILL JUST SEE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING - HARDLY NOTICEABLE. THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES BY TO THE NORTH TOMORROW. WITH MUCH OF ITS DYNAMICS NORTH OF US, THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL ALSO BE TO OUR NORTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAIN OVER THE NORTH COAST, UMPQUA BASIN, AND INTO THE NORTH CASCADES TOMORROW. IT`S NOT A PARTICULARLY WET SYSTEM, BUT I DID RAISE POPS AND QPF IN THESE AREAS. THE REST OF US COULD SEE SOME RAIN, BUT MUCH LESS PROBABILITY THAN NORTHERN AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK HITTER WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ENDING QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN A RIDGE SPRINGS UP OVER THE PACNW WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS LOOK TO BE EVEN WARMER THAN OUR LAST EPISODE WITH AT LEAST LOW 70S FOR HIGHS BY SUNDAY IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE EXTENDED IS STILL LOOKING POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED, BUT CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW. THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION IS STILL TRUE, AND IT FOLLOWS FOR REFERENCE. -WRIGHT LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS START OUT IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY...THEN WANDER OFF IN MANY DIRECTIONS. BY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS HAS A DEEP TROUGH OFFSHORE WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK RIDGE IN THE SAME LOCATION. FROM THERE CONFIDENCE DECREASES FURTHER AS THE ENSEMBLE PLOTS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH NO SINGLE PLOT LIKE ANY OTHER PLOT. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE GONE WITH NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. SVEN && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. $$ CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
259 AM PDT THU MAR 13 2014 .SHORT TERM...THE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST SIDE TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUD OVER THE WEST SIDE THIS MORNING, WE WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA AND ILLINOIS BASINS AS TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE LOW AND THESE AREAS ARE PRONE TO SUCH OCCURRENCES. IT IS ALREADY STARTING TO HAPPEN ALONG THE COOS COAST, PER SATELLITE. LIKE YESTERDAY, THIS SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING, PERHAPS LASTING LONGER AT THE COAST THOUGH. DON`T THINK IT WILL HAPPEN IN THE ROGUE VALLEY, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT IN THAT REGARD. ASIDE FROM THE MORNING CLOUD/FOG, MOST OF US WILL ONLY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUD TODAY, BUT THERE IS A PRETTY OBVIOUS AREA OF MARINE STRATUS JUST OUTSIDE OUR MARINE WATERS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING ONSHORE TONIGHT. THIS PUSH WILL MEAN MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY AT THE COAST THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY. SOME OF THIS COOLING WILL ALSO BE FELT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN, BUT THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE WILL JUST SEE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING - HARDLY NOTICEABLE. THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES BY TO THE NORTH TOMORROW. WITH MUCH OF ITS DYNAMICS NORTH OF US, THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL ALSO BE TO OUR NORTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAIN OVER THE NORTH COAST, UMPQUA BASIN, AND INTO THE NORTH CASCADES TOMORROW. IT`S NOT A PARTICULARLY WET SYSTEM, BUT I DID RAISE POPS AND QPF IN THESE AREAS. THE REST OF US COULD SEE SOME RAIN, BUT MUCH LESS PROBABILITY THAN NORTHERN AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK HITTER WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ENDING QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN A RIDGE SPRINGS UP OVER THE PACNW WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS LOOK TO BE EVEN WARMER THAN OUR LAST EPISODE WITH AT LEAST LOW 70S FOR HIGHS BY SUNDAY IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE EXTENDED IS STILL LOOKING POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED, BUT CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW. THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION IS STILL TRUE, AND IT FOLLOWS FOR REFERENCE. -WRIGHT LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS START OUT IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY...THEN WANDER OFF IN MANY DIRECTIONS. BY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS HAS A DEEP TROUGH OFFSHORE WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK RIDGE IN THE SAME LOCATION. FROM THERE CONFIDENCE DECREASES FURTHER AS THE ENSEMBLE PLOTS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH NO SINGLE PLOT LIKE ANY OTHER PLOT. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE GONE WITH NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. SVEN && .AVIATION...BASED ON THE 13/06Z TAF CYCLE...ASIDE FROM MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT WILL INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND WINDS LATE THURSDAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. && .MARINE...THE LATEST OB AT BOUY 15 SHOWS GUSTY NORTH WINDS, BUT SO FAR HAVE REMAINED BELOW SMALL CRAFT. THE RAP 13 APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. MODERATE WEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS MORNING, THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE WATCH BULLETIN APPEARS A BIT UNDERDONE WITH THE WAVE HEIGHT AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE SWAN SOLUTION, THIS HAVE EXTENDED THE END TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY. WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. THE WAVE WATCH AND ENP WAVE MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE WESTERLY SWELL WILL DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...PEAKING OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND EC DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY. THE EC IS STRONGER AND GFS IS WEAKER AND SLOWER. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO FOR THE WIND FORECAST. -PETRUCELLI && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
845 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014 .UPDATE... OHX RADAR INDICATES EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NEARLY OUT OF THE MID STATE WITH A FEW SPRINKLES REMAINING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA BORDERS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THIS AREA UNTIL 03Z WHEN ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LONG GONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SKIES HAVE QUICKLY CLEARED ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES BUT UPSTREAM CIRRUS IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING...SO WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY. SHAMBURGER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014/ UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST AVIATION... DECENT LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW...MIDDLE AND UPPER JETS ARE ALL INTERSECTING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH MID STATE IN LEFT FRONT QUAD OF 125 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING LACK OF MOISTURE 600 MBARS ON DOWN TOWARD SURFACE SO THINK ONLY SPRINKLES OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN LIKELY TO REACH THE GROUND THIS EVENING. BEST LIFT AREA PULLS EAST RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING. ALL IN ALL LOOK FOR VFR FLIGHT RULES NEXT 24 HOURS. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
634 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014 .UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST && .AVIATION... DECENT LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW...MIDDLE AND UPPER JETS ARE ALL INTERSECTING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH MID STATE IN LEFT FRONT QUAD OF 125 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING LACK OF MOISTURE 600 MBARS ON DOWN TOWARD SURFACE SO THINK ONLY SPRINKLES OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN LIKELY TO REACH THE GROUND THIS EVENING. BEST LIFT AREA PULLS EAST RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING. ALL IN ALL LOOK FOR VFR FLIGHT RULES NEXT 24 HOURS. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ BOYD 01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SPOKANE WA
546 PM PDT Fri Mar 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A weather system is exiting the area this evening and winds are expected to subside. High pressure and drier weather returns but is short lived as another weather disturbance pushes a threat of precipitation into the Cascades late Saturday into Sunday, then across the remainder of the Inland Northwest later Sunday afternoon into Monday. Drier weather returns Tuesday through Wednesday Night, but another threat of showers will be possible late in the week. Temperatures will remain above seasonal norms through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Quick update this evening to adjust chance of precipitation through the evening and overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms have quickly moved east and have removed all shower mention across eastern WA. Some light showers continue across north ID, but they are very isolated and should be out of the area in the next hour or two. The Pudget Sound Convergence Zone continues around Stevens Pass this evening. HRRR model showing it continuing through about 10 pm tonight...so additional snow accumulations is possible. Winds should start to subside a bit by 8 pm, but will generally be in the 5-10 mph range overnight. /Nisbet && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: Showers w isold -tsra continue to move east across north ID and should be out of the area by 02z. Gusty SW winds will continue to decrease through the evening hours. VFR conditions should persist through the remainder of the period. An increase in clouds from the west will move through the area aft 12z Sat. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 32 52 37 56 38 51 / 0 10 10 50 70 60 Coeur d`Alene 29 50 36 54 38 50 / 10 10 10 60 80 60 Pullman 33 53 39 58 39 51 / 0 0 0 10 70 70 Lewiston 37 59 41 64 43 57 / 0 0 0 10 60 70 Colville 29 53 34 57 34 55 / 0 40 20 70 70 40 Sandpoint 29 46 34 50 35 48 / 20 20 20 70 70 50 Kellogg 30 47 35 50 36 46 / 50 10 10 60 80 80 Moses Lake 34 58 39 63 39 59 / 0 10 0 20 40 10 Wenatchee 36 55 37 59 35 55 / 0 10 10 20 40 10 Omak 31 54 34 58 32 55 / 0 30 20 40 50 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1019 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014 LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING TO THE EAST OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP REPORTS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN FAR AND FEW BETWEEN SO FAR TODAY...WITH ONLY SOME SITES IN VILAS COUNTY AND MTW REPORTING ANY PRECIP. SUSPECT SOME PRECIP REACHED THE GROUND OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN TOO BASED ON RADAR RETURNS. 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOWED A DRY WEDGE BELOW 700MB...AND SUSPECT THIS DRY AIR IS PREVENTING MID-LEVEL RETURNS FROM REACHING THE GROUND AT MOST LOCATIONS. NOT MANY REPORTS OF SNOW UPSTREAM EITHER...ONLY A FEW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION IS OCCURRING BEHIND A COOL FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THE COMBO OF CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR HAS HALTED THE HEATING CURVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUDS/TEMPS. TONIGHT...BEHIND A COMPACT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE DEPARTED BY THIS TIME...BUT FLOW WILL BE TURNING TO THE NNW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE HANGING BACK OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT LACK OF PRECIP ON UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORTS BACKING OFF ON PRECIP AMOUNTS AND POPS SOMEWHAT. WILL ONLY SHOW A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTHERN VILAS COUNTY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THINK CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH. MODELS APPEAR A LITTLE TOO QUICK THOUGH SINCE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING...SO WILL NOT SHOW CLEARING SKIES OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS...SIDED WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID-TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SATURDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY MORNING. DIGGING SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS AND RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE JET WILL CREATE THE FORCING FOR A BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WHICH PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH TRACKS THE BAND OF SNOW INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE FARTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WILL SIDE WITH THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER ON PROGGED SOUNDINGS...WHICH TURNS INTO A CU FIELD WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SO THINKING ANY CLEARING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL PARTIALLY FILL BACK IN BY LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH COULD GENERATE A FEW FLURRIES OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL HAVE A MENTION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD CONDITIONS FOR MID MARCH WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND 850MB WARM ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST. THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED THIS MORNING AS THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND WARMER THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE COLDEST SOLUTION WHILE THE THE GFS IS IN THE MIDDLE. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO NOTED. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DID SHOW A LARGE VARIABLE IN THE POSSIBLE TRACK OF THE STORM. WOULD LIKE TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF MODEL FOR THIS PACKAGE DUE TO ITS BETTER PERFORMANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS...BUT THIS MODEL IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND SLOW THAN PREVIOUS RUN. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE SINCE THERE ARE SEVERAL MORE DAYS UNTIL THE EVENT AND LATER MODELS CAN CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014 CLOUD DECK HAS FILLED BACK IN ACRS THE AREA. MOSTLY VFR CIGS IN C/NE/E-C WI...AND MVFR CIGS IN N-C WI. THE LOWER CIGS WL SAG SWD SOME OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE OVC TO DEVELOP IN THE FAVORED REGION ACRS ERN WI BY MORNING. BUT WILL PROBABLY GET AN UPTICK IN CLDS AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......ECKBERG AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
610 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014 LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING TO THE EAST OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP REPORTS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN FAR AND FEW BETWEEN SO FAR TODAY...WITH ONLY SOME SITES IN VILAS COUNTY AND MTW REPORTING ANY PRECIP. SUSPECT SOME PRECIP REACHED THE GROUND OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN TOO BASED ON RADAR RETURNS. 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOWED A DRY WEDGE BELOW 700MB...AND SUSPECT THIS DRY AIR IS PREVENTING MID-LEVEL RETURNS FROM REACHING THE GROUND AT MOST LOCATIONS. NOT MANY REPORTS OF SNOW UPSTREAM EITHER...ONLY A FEW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION IS OCCURRING BEHIND A COOL FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THE COMBO OF CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR HAS HALTED THE HEATING CURVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUDS/TEMPS. TONIGHT...BEHIND A COMPACT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE DEPARTED BY THIS TIME...BUT FLOW WILL BE TURNING TO THE NNW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE HANGING BACK OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT LACK OF PRECIP ON UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORTS BACKING OFF ON PRECIP AMOUNTS AND POPS SOMEWHAT. WILL ONLY SHOW A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTHERN VILAS COUNTY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THINK CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH. MODELS APPEAR A LITTLE TOO QUICK THOUGH SINCE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING...SO WILL NOT SHOW CLEARING SKIES OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS...SIDED WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID-TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SATURDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY MORNING. DIGGING SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS AND RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE JET WILL CREATE THE FORCING FOR A BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WHICH PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH TRACKS THE BAND OF SNOW INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE FARTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WILL SIDE WITH THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER ON PROGGED SOUNDINGS...WHICH TURNS INTO A CU FIELD WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SO THINKING ANY CLEARING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL PARTIALLY FILL BACK IN BY LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH COULD GENERATE A FEW FLURRIES OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL HAVE A MENTION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014 CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD CONDITIONS FOR MID MARCH WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND 850MB WARM ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST. THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED THIS MORNING AS THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND WARMER THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE COLDEST SOLUTION WHILE THE THE GFS IS IN THE MIDDLE. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO NOTED. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DID SHOW A LARGE VARIABLE IN THE POSSIBLE TRACK OF THE STORM. WOULD LIKE TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF MODEL FOR THIS PACKAGE DUE TO ITS BETTER PERFORMANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS...BUT THIS MODEL IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND SLOW THAN PREVIOUS RUN. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE SINCE THERE ARE SEVERAL MORE DAYS UNTIL THE EVENT AND LATER MODELS CAN CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION. && .AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014 SUBSIDENCE RESULTED IN A SIG DECR IN CLDS ACRS THE SWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN. CLDS WL PROBABLY MV BACK ACRS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT ANTICIPATE THEY WILL CREATE PRIMARILY VFR CIGS. WINDS SHOULD LOSE MUCH OF THEIR GUSTINESS WITH THE ONSET OF NIGHT...AND SPEEDS SHOULD DECR AS WELL. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......ECKBERG AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1224 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 AT 3 AM...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE COMBINATION OF 280 TO 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WAS PRODUCING A 6 TO 8K DECK OF CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. THERE WERE EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF 2K FOOT CLOUDS BRIEFLY AT MASON CITY. THESE CLOUDS WERE HELPING TO RISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. MEANWHILE WHERE SKIES WERE STILL CLEAR...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. TODAY - THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT MOST LOCATIONS...THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS BECOME VERY SATURATED BELOW 900 MB LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE BOTH THE RAP HAS THIS LAYER DRY. NORMALLY...THE GFS AND NAM HAVE PROBLEMS IN THIS SYNOPTIC SITUATION WHERE YOU HAVE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION GOING UP AN OVER A SNOW PACK. WHILE THIS CAN OCCUR...A SIMILAR SIGNAL IS SHOWING UP IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT BOTH FAIRMONT AND REDWOOD FALLS AND NEITHER LOCATION HAS ANY LOW CLOUDS. DUE TO THE LOW LEVELS BEING DRIER THAN EXPECTED REMOVED THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE ONLY PLACE THAT A MENTION OF FLURRIES WAS KEPT IN WAS OVER IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE ARW HINTS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AROUND 13.15Z. TONIGHT - THE 13.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS VERY DRY DUE TO THE DOWN SLOPED AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THE 13.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SECONDARY FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS HAS THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. MEANWHILE THE NAM HAS THE WEAKEST COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE ECMWF WAS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...SO TRENDED TOWARD IT FOR TEMPERATURES. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 FOR A MENTION OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. MEANWHILE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST SOME WEAK TO MODERATE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA. THE 285 AND 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACES BECOME SATURATED ENOUGH TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY THAT A BAND OF SNOW COULD DEVELOP EITHER ON THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR /ECMWF/ OR ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN /GFS...GEM...AND NAM/. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODELS...OPTED TO GO WITH THE BETTER SNOW CHANCES IN AREAS WHERE THERE WAS THE BEST MODEL CONSENSUS. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON TRACK AND TIMING OF A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 GOOD VFR CONDITIONS AS FAR AS CIGS/VSBYS...WITH SOUTH WINDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE...WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS AROUND 2K FT AGL WILL BE IN THE 40KT RANGE DURING THE MID EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS WITH SOUTH SFC WINDS AROUND 10KTS AT KLSE...WILL LEAVE LLWS MENTION IN KLSE TAF FOR THE 03Z-09Z PERIOD. SFC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...SWINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG WITH LIGHTER 925MB WINDS. COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOME DEEPER MIXING...AND GUSTY WINDS AT SITE LIKE KRST BY MID MORNING. SIGNAL FOR INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES FRI MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH WHAT WILL BE A LOT OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TO OVERCOME AND THE DEEPER MIXING...ONLY CARRIED SCT020- 025 CLOUDS IN THE TAFS AFTER 14-15Z FRI MORNING AT THIS TIME. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM....BOYNE AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
616 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 AT 3 AM...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE COMBINATION OF 280 TO 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WAS PRODUCING A 6 TO 8K DECK OF CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. THERE WERE EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF 2K FOOT CLOUDS BRIEFLY AT MASON CITY. THESE CLOUDS WERE HELPING TO RISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. MEANWHILE WHERE SKIES WERE STILL CLEAR...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. TODAY - THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT MOST LOCATIONS...THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS BECOME VERY SATURATED BELOW 900 MB LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE BOTH THE RAP HAS THIS LAYER DRY. NORMALLY...THE GFS AND NAM HAVE PROBLEMS IN THIS SYNOPTIC SITUATION WHERE YOU HAVE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION GOING UP AN OVER A SNOW PACK. WHILE THIS CAN OCCUR...A SIMILAR SIGNAL IS SHOWING UP IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT BOTH FAIRMONT AND REDWOOD FALLS AND NEITHER LOCATION HAS ANY LOW CLOUDS. DUE TO THE LOW LEVELS BEING DRIER THAN EXPECTED REMOVED THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE ONLY PLACE THAT A MENTION OF FLURRIES WAS KEPT IN WAS OVER IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE ARW HINTS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AROUND 13.15Z. TONIGHT - THE 13.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS VERY DRY DUE TO THE DOWN SLOPED AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THE 13.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SECONDARY FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS HAS THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. MEANWHILE THE NAM HAS THE WEAKEST COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE ECMWF WAS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...SO TRENDED TOWARD IT FOR TEMPERATURES. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 FOR A MENTION OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. MEANWHILE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST SOME WEAK TO MODERATE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA. THE 285 AND 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACES BECOME SATURATED ENOUGH TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY THAT A BAND OF SNOW COULD DEVELOP EITHER ON THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR /ECMWF/ OR ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN /GFS...GEM...AND NAM/. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODELS...OPTED TO GO WITH THE BETTER SNOW CHANCES IN AREAS WHERE THERE WAS THE BEST MODEL CONSENSUS. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON TRACK AND TIMING OF A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 BAND OF VFR CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF BOTH TAF SITES BY MID MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. AS THE WARM AIR COMES IN ALOFT...THE INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THUS WITH VERY LIMITED MIXING...NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY FOR GUSTS TODAY. THE 13.06Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND SHEAR TONIGHT AT KLSE. HOWEVER...THE 13.06Z GFS DOES NOT INCREASE THE WINDS ALOFT QUITE AS MUCH AS THE NAM AND WOULD KEEP THE SPEEDS JUST UNDER WIND SHEAR CRITERIA. CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR IS NOT VERY HIGH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE NAM HAVING A BIAS OF BEING TOO STRONG WITH WIND SPEEDS...BUT SINCE IT WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE IT FOR NOW. THE WIND SHEAR WILL END OVERNIGHT AS THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SWINGS THE SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH WIND SPEEDS ALOFT DIMINISHING ENOUGH TO DROP THIS FROM THE FORECAST. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
340 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 AT 3 AM...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE COMBINATION OF 280 TO 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WAS PRODUCING A 6 TO 8K DECK OF CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. THERE WERE EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF 2K FOOT CLOUDS BRIEFLY AT MASON CITY. THESE CLOUDS WERE HELPING TO RISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. MEANWHILE WHERE SKIES WERE STILL CLEAR...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. TODAY - THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT MOST LOCATIONS...THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS BECOME VERY SATURATED BELOW 900 MB LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE BOTH THE RAP HAS THIS LAYER DRY. NORMALLY...THE GFS AND NAM HAVE PROBLEMS IN THIS SYNOPTIC SITUATION WHERE YOU HAVE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION GOING UP AN OVER A SNOW PACK. WHILE THIS CAN OCCUR...A SIMILAR SIGNAL IS SHOWING UP IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT BOTH FAIRMONT AND REDWOOD FALLS AND NEITHER LOCATION HAS ANY LOW CLOUDS. DUE TO THE LOW LEVELS BEING DRIER THAN EXPECTED REMOVED THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE ONLY PLACE THAT A MENTION OF FLURRIES WAS KEPT IN WAS OVER IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE ARW HINTS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AROUND 13.15Z. TONIGHT - THE 13.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS VERY DRY DUE TO THE DOWN SLOPED AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014 FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THE 13.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SECONDARY FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS HAS THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. MEANWHILE THE NAM HAS THE WEAKEST COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE ECMWF WAS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...SO TRENDED TOWARD IT FOR TEMPERATURES. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 FOR A MENTION OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. MEANWHILE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST SOME WEAK TO MODERATE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA. THE 285 AND 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACES BECOME SATURATED ENOUGH TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY THAT A BAND OF SNOW COULD DEVELOP EITHER ON THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR /ECMWF/ OR ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN /GFS...GEM...AND NAM/. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODELS...OPTED TO GO WITH THE BETTER SNOW CHANCES IN AREAS WHERE THERE WAS THE BEST MODEL CONSENSUS. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON TRACK AND TIMING OF A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014 FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON A WARM FRONT NEARING WESTERN MINNESOTA MARCHING EASTWARD. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. A 4 HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN 10-16Z OF MVFR CEILINGS REMAINS LIKELY. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT SHOULD FALL FROM THESE CLOUDS LOOKS TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z AND OCCUR EAST OF LSE. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER/CLEAR OUT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL...PERHAPS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY AT RST. EXPECT THE GUSTS TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AT RST AS NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN...THOUGH A 10-15 KT SUSTAINED BREEZE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. MEANWHILE...AT LSE...NOCTURNAL COOLING DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER 03Z. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
340 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF SHRA ACROSS THE NW MTNS AT 0530Z IN ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT. STILL EXPECT BAND OF SHRA TO DISSIPATE AS THEY PASS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...MAINLY THE RESULT OF DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW. LATEST RAP AND NAMPARA SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SO WILL MENTION HIGH POPS ACROSS THE W MTNS AND JUST A CHANCE OF A -SHRA ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. AN EXAMINATION UPSTREAM OBS AND LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS ANY CHANGEOVER TO -SHSN OVR THE NW MTNS WILL OCCUR AFTER THE BULK OF PRECIP HAS PASSED...SO REMOVED OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ENTIRELY. TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT BY DAWN FROM ARND 32F ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE L40S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SECONDARY COLD FRONT TRAILING SSW FROM CLIPPER OVR S QUEBEC WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TODAY...BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP /EXCEPT FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS/. SKY COVER DURING MUCH OF SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE SE...TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE KBFD VCNTY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO THE MID-UPPER 20KT RANGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...MAKING IT FEEL NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN THE OTHERWISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 30S NW...TO LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. TRICKY TEMP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH IN TO THE STATE. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE AXIS OF A STRENGTHENING EAST/WEST JET CORE. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE FAIRLY LARGE NORTH-SOUTH TEMP SPREAD FROM THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC ANTICYCLONE...WITH ORIGINS OVER THE NW TERRITORIES...WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE GRT LKS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ACROSS CENTRAL PA. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WILL BE GATHERING GULF OF MEX MOISTURE OVR THE LWR MS VLY/DELTA REGION WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP FROM MISSOURI TO VIRGINIA. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON SWD SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR ASSOCD WITH SFC HIGH INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS OF 1-2SD BLW AVG SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY OF ONLY THE M20S N MTNS AND PERHAPS ARND 40F IN SOUTHERN VALLEYS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS A FIXTURE ACRS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ON FOR THIS CYCLE. 1) SFC WAVE OR WAVES MIGRATING NEWD FROM GULF COAST STATES ACRS THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC MON-TUE. 2) PLAINS SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVG E/NE THRU THE GRT LKS AND APPLCHNS WED-THU. THE KEY FEATURE OF INTEREST /SYSTEM #1/ REMAINS THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE REGION SUN NITE-MONDAY BASED ON BLEND OF 00Z GUIDANCE...ALL OF WHICH NOW TRACK SFC LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SNOW TO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA. A POOR-MANS ENSEMBLE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS/ENSEMBLE/HPC GUIDANCE...SUGGEST A MODERATE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE SUN NITE-MONDAY. CONCERNING SYSTEM #2...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A SFC RIDGE SHOULD SEPARATE THE DEPARTING SYSTEM #1 AND SFC LOW LIFTING NEWD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS/GEFS TRENDING SLOWER INTO MIDWEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 6-8. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IN WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA BEFORE PRECIPITATION WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE FRONT WILL BRING TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS AND VERY GUSTY SW WINDS /AND LLWS/. WINDS MAY DIMINISH A BIT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE. SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING OVER NW MTNS AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CIG AND OCNL VSBY REDUCTIONS. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z ACROSS LAUREL HIGHLANDS INCLUDING KJST. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AS STIFF WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY...INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. GUSTS DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE TO 30-40MPH AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. LLWS WILL DECREASE AS CORE OF JET SHIFTS TO OUR NE. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO SAT NIGHT AT KBFD...BUT OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST HOWEVER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN NIGHT-MON...SNOW WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA. TUE...MAINLY VFR. TUE NIGHT-WED...PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR ALONG WITH SCTD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE REGION. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
148 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF SHRA ACROSS THE NW MTNS AT 0530Z IN ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT. STILL EXPECT BAND OF SHRA TO DISSIPATE AS THEY PASS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...MAINLY THE RESULT OF DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW. LATEST RAP AND NAMPARA SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SO WILL MENTION HIGH POPS ACROSS THE W MTNS AND JUST A CHANCE OF A -SHRA ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. AN EXAMINATION UPSTREAM OBS AND LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS ANY CHANGEOVER TO -SHSN OVR THE NW MTNS WILL OCCUR AFTER THE BULK OF PRECIP HAS PASSED...SO REMOVED OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ENTIRELY. TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT BY DAWN FROM ARND 32F ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE L40S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SECONDARY COLD FRONT TRAILING SSW FROM CLIPPER OVR S QUEBEC WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TODAY...BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP /EXCEPT FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS/. SKY COVER DURING MUCH OF SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE SE...TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE KBFD VCNTY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO THE MID-UPPER 20KT RANGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...MAKING IT FEEL NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN THE OTHERWISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 30S NW...TO LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. TRICKY TEMP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH IN TO THE STATE. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE AXIS OF A STRENGTHENING EAST/WEST JET CORE. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE FAIRLY LARGE NORTH-SOUTH TEMP SPREAD FROM THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC ANTICYCLONE...WITH ORIGINS OVER THE NW TERRITORIES...WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE GRT LKS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR ACROSS CENTRAL PA. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW WILL BE GATHERING GULF OF MEX MOISTURE OVR THE LWR MS VLY/DELTA REGION WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP FROM MISSOURI TO VIRGINIA. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON SWD SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR ASSOCD WITH SFC HIGH INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS OF 1-2SD BLW AVG SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY OF ONLY THE M20S N MTNS AND PERHAPS ARND 40F IN SOUTHERN VALLEYS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS A FIXTURE ACRS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ON FOR THIS CYCLE. 1) SFC WAVE OR WAVES MIGRATING NEWD FROM GULF COAST STATES ACRS THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC MON-TUE. 2) PLAINS SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVG E/NE THRU THE GRT LKS AND APPLCHNS WED-THU. THE KEY FEATURE OF INTEREST /SYSTEM #1/ REMAINS THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE REGION SUN NITE-MONDAY BASED ON BLEND OF 00Z GUIDANCE...ALL OF WHICH NOW TRACK SFC LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SNOW TO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PA. A POOR-MANS ENSEMBLE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS/ENSEMBLE/HPC GUIDANCE...SUGGEST A MODERATE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE SUN NITE-MONDAY. CONCERNING SYSTEM #2...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A SFC RIDGE SHOULD SEPARATE THE DEPARTING SYSTEM #1 AND SFC LOW LIFTING NEWD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS/GEFS TRENDING SLOWER INTO MIDWEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 6-8. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SATTELITE SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS WITH SHOWERS BECOMING POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS AS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BY 07Z. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER BFD...JST AND IPT. THESE WINDS COULD SUBSIDE BRIEFLY...BY 06Z...BEFORE PICKING UP POST FRONTAL....BETWEEN 10 TO 14Z. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW MTNS WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN...CHANGING TO SHSN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CIG REDUCTIONS TO MVFR AND TEMPO IFR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS CFROPA. CIG HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY GO NO LOWER THAN MVFR ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION SATURDAY MORNING. IFR UNTIL 15Z IS EXPECTED AT JST AND BFD. ONE MAIN IMPACT OVERNIGHT TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS IS IN THE FORM OF A GUSTY SW SFC WINDS /AND WIDESPREAD LLWS/...AS AN AXIS OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT /ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET/ SLIDES EAST. LLWS IS INCREASING AS 850MB JET INCREASES TO 50-60 KTS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. LLWS WILL MOVE OFF AS THE JET MOVES NORTHEAST BY MID SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO SAT AT KBFD...BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST HOWEVER. VFR WILL FOLLOW FOR LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GLAKES. ANOTHER STORM TRACKING SOUTH OF PA LATE SUNDAY INTO MON COULD BRING SOME SNOW CLOSE TO SE PA. OUTLOOK... SAT...AM -SHRASN/REDUCED CIGS POSS W MTNS. BREEZY. SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN NIGHT-MON...SNOW WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA. TUE...MAINLY VFR. TUES NIGHT AND WED...PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR ALONG WITH SCTD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE REGION. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SPOKANE WA
1030 PM PDT Fri Mar 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A weather system is exiting the area this evening and winds are expected to subside. High pressure and drier weather returns but is short lived as another weather disturbance pushes a threat of precipitation into the Cascades late Saturday into Sunday, then across the remainder of the Inland Northwest later Sunday afternoon into Monday. Drier weather returns Tuesday through Wednesday Night, but another threat of showers will be possible late in the week. Temperatures will remain above seasonal norms through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Quick update this evening to adjust chance of precipitation through the evening and overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms have quickly moved east and have removed all shower mention across eastern WA. Some light showers continue across north ID, but they are very isolated and should be out of the area in the next hour or two. The Pudget Sound Convergence Zone continues around Stevens Pass this evening. HRRR model showing it continuing through about 10 pm tonight...so additional snow accumulations is possible. Winds should start to subside a bit by 8 pm, but will generally be in the 5-10 mph range overnight. /Nisbet && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Gusty SW winds have decreased...though there are a few locally breezy places like KGEG, KPUW & KEAT. Winds will continue to lower overnight. There is the potential of some patchy fog across valleys north and east of KGEG and have added some tempo groups in for KSFF and KCOE for potential fog, though confidence is not high. An increase in clouds from the west will move into the area aft 12z Sat. Chance of showers across northern WA and ID sat aftn and early evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 32 52 37 56 38 51 / 0 10 10 50 70 60 Coeur d`Alene 29 50 36 54 38 50 / 0 10 10 60 80 60 Pullman 33 53 39 58 39 51 / 0 0 0 10 70 70 Lewiston 37 59 41 64 43 57 / 0 0 0 10 60 70 Colville 29 53 34 57 34 55 / 0 40 20 70 70 40 Sandpoint 29 46 34 50 35 48 / 0 20 20 70 70 50 Kellogg 30 47 35 50 36 46 / 10 10 10 60 80 80 Moses Lake 34 58 39 63 39 59 / 0 10 0 20 40 10 Wenatchee 36 55 37 59 35 55 / 0 10 10 20 40 10 Omak 31 54 34 58 32 55 / 0 30 20 40 50 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
951 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A BRIEF BAND OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND MILD AFTERNOON. DRY...BUT VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE MONDAY TO SPARE THE REGION A WINTER STORM. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10 AM UPDATE... HIGHLIGHTS... * BLUSTERY W/SW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE * STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN * MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DISCUSSION... SYNOPTICALLY...A SERIES OF WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INVOKE SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PRESENTLY APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWEEPING BOUNDARIES BEHIND WHICH COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR STEEPENING MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES /SEE SPC MESOANALYSIS/. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING UP TO H7 ALONG WITH SOME MINOR INSTABILITY WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL PROFILE. AIR NEEDS TO SINK SOMEWHERE...SO EXPECTING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AS ALREADY DISCERNED PER LATEST SATELLITE /BROKEN CLOUD DECKS/. ONE THING IS FOR CERTAIN...WITH ANTICIPATED BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMING UP TO AROUND 50 DEGREES /H85 TEMPS AROUND -3C/ EXPECT THE EASY MIX-DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. W/SW WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ANTICIPATED MIDDAY INTO EVENING...NEARLY 40 MPH ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES AS WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER SEEMINGLY MAX OUT AROUND 40 MPH /LOOKING DOWNSTREAM AT VWPS OUT OF ALBANY AND POINTS EAST... THE WESTERLY FLOW IS AROUND 35 MPH AT H9-7/. SOME UNCERTAINTY...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. AVERAGE PWATS ARE AROUND 0.4 INCHES. LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO REMAIN OPEN FOR BUSINESS. SOME CONCERN WITH DOWNSLOPING OFF THE BERKSHIRES AND WHETHER THAT WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES TO THE EAST. SO LOOKING AT THE HRRR AND PRESENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL KEEP WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY MAINLY N/W OF THE REGION CLOSER TO READILY AVAILABLE SURFACE MOISTURE SOURCES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... TONIGHT... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...TO MAINLY THE 20S ELSEWHERE BY EARLY SUN MORNING. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY... MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN -14C AND -18C BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPS TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN....TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE ITS THE MIDDLE OF WINTER ACROSS THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... 15.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE NOW STARTING TO HAVE REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING FINAL STORM TRACK OF LOW PRES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL HAVE MOVED TOO FAR S ON SUN...COMBINED WITH POSITIVE NAO/AO SUGGESTING PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THEREFORE IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK TOO FAR S WITH TOO MUCH DRY AIR TO THE N TO HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON SRN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THIS GENERAL AGREEMENT...A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE WILL BE USED FOR THE MID TERM. FOLLOWING THIS LOW PRES...MODEST WRN CONUS RIDGE LOOKS SHUNT POLAR VORTEX A BIT FURTHER N. LEADING TO REASONABLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS. SYNOPTICALLY...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE...SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES UNTIL SECONDARY NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES /IN THE FORM OF AN INSIDE RUNNER AT THE SFC/. THE ISSUE AT HAND IS IN HOW AMPLIFIED THE FLOW PATTERN IS BY THAT POINT...WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT MAKES IT/S PASS. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WHILE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND FASTER. ENSEMBLES FROM EITHER FAMILY SUPPORT BOTH SOLUTIONS HERE...SO WILL LEAN ON AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN FOR THU AND FRI UNTIL PATTERN IS BETTER NAILED DOWN. DETAILS... SUN NIGHT INTO MON... SFC HIGH PRES APPROACHING 1030 HPA WILL BE GRADUALLY SETTLING ACROSS THE NE CONUS...CARRYING DRY/COLD AIRMASS WITH IT. THIS STRONG RIDGING NOW LOOKS TO SHUNT LOW PRES OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 18Z MON. GIVEN THE DRY AIR...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT OF FINAL PRECIP...BUT BULK WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. CURRENTLY ONLY 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z CMC BRING AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING 0.01-0.05 OF QPF TO ACK/MVY...BUT NOT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THEIR SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THIS...WILL CONTINUE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS. OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS AROUND -10C TO -14C SUGGEST TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NW WHERE SOME RADIATION IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF CLOUD COVER TO TEENS AND 20S NEAR SE MA/RI. HIGHS MON REBOUND LITTLE...ONLY LOW TO UPPER 20S. TUE INTO WED... THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE BY THE DAY WED. THEREFORE...DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. COOLEST TEMPS EXPECTED TUE OF THE TWO DAYS...AS H85 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND -8C...YIELDING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM ON TUE NIGHT AS RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP LOOKS APPARENT. BY WED THOUGH...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH IT APPEARS TEMPS MAY FINAL HAVE A RUN AT SEASONAL NORMALS. THU INTO FRI... NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW LOW PRES TO DEEPEN AND GRADUALLY SLIDE INVOF THE ST. LAWRENCE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING. SOME GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY GFS/CMC...SUGGEST SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT S OF LONG ISLAND ALONG THE FRONT WHICH MAY DRAG MORE COLD AIR INTO THE SYSTEM WHICH MAY PROMOTE A CHANGE-OVER. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT...FOR AN UNSETTLED AND WET PERIOD. WILL BLEND IN A LITTLE OF THE POTENTIAL COLDER SOLUTION...BUT THE ECMWF /WARMER/ SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE PERSISTENT. THEREFORE MORE WEIGHT WILL BE GIVEN TO IT. IN EITHER CASE...THE NRN STREAM WAVE DOES APPEAR TO TAP SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SO SOME HEAVIER PRECIP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NEXT WEEKEND... LOW CONFIDENCE HERE...BUT IT APPEARS GIVEN THE JOINING OF SRN AND NRN STREAM FLOW THAT ANOTHER FAST MOVING NRN STREAM WAVE MAY EFFECT THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY... TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...EVEN IN -SHRA WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH BY ABOUT 15Z. SOME HIT OR MISS -SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL... ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR...BUT VFR SHOULD STILL DOMINATE. MAIN STORY OTHERWISE IS WINDS...SW WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A W DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT EXPECTED. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 15Z...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 15Z...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR AS IT APPEARS COASTAL STORM STAYS TOO FAR SOUTHEAST TO AFFECT SRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS. NW WINDS SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE N BY MONDAY TUE INTO WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. N WINDS ON TUE SHIFT TO THE SW ON WED. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SCA HEADLINES POSTED FOR ALL WATERS RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS VERY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALE HEADLINES. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT CONTINUE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING...BUT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY MON SUCH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY END THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE COASTAL STORM WILL STAY WELL TO THE SE ON MON. TUE AND WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250- 251-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...DOODY AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
946 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014 IN THE UPPER LEVELS WE CURRENTLY HAVE TWO SHORTWAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA. ONE IS TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE APPROACHING WEST TX. AT THE SURFACE...LEE DRUGGING HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014 MODIFIED TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING...HOWEVER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S LOOK FEASIBLE GIVEN LESS CLOUD COVER AND DECENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. NAM/GFS APPEAR OVER-AGGRESSIVE WITH TIMING AND EXPANSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. RUC AND HRRR HAVE PICKED UP ON SLOWER ADVECTION. DUE TO DELAYED MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CWA...HAVE TONED DOWN PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE DAY...FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE NIL OR VERY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN LATER UPDATE...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST TIMING OF THE START OF WIND ADVISORY GIVEN NEW GUIDANCE. WILL LOOK AT A FEW MORE THINGS BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS THOUGH. SF && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014 SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE RED RIVER. AS THE NORTHERN SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER AR THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP FOR AREAS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-135. IN ADDITION...THIS SAME AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL START AS ALL RAIN AREA WIDE TONIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW AND ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST GENERALLY AFTER 06Z. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF FAR SE KS PICKS UP A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...MAINLY AFTER 12Z SUN WITH SOME SLEET ALSO MIXING-IN. THE MODEL TREND HAS DEFINITELY BEEN TO PULL COLDER AIR SOUTH WITH EACH RUN. THE BIGGER STORY MAY END UP BEING THE VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AFTERNOON. THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL REALLY TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER END ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN POSSIBLE OVER SE KS BY EARLY SUN MORNING. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE FORECASTING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW OVER SE KS SUN MORNING...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS EVENTUALLY NEEDED DUE TO THE COMBO OF STRONG WINDS AND SNOW. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END SUN AFTERNOON AS WE GET RIGHT BACK INTO RETURN FLOW TO START THE WORK WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. DID INCREASE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY AS GOOD DOWNSLOPE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH SE KS NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE 30S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014 THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE COME AROUND TO THE ECMWF WITH THE SHORTWAVE ON TUE. CONFIDENCE HAS NOW INCREASED THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON TRACKING ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LAWSON && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014 THERE ARE NO CONCERNS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN A SE-MO VG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE KRSL (~23Z) THAT...UPON ARRIVAL...WILL PRODUCE A SW-NW WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS GREATLY INCREASING TO ~22KTS SUSTAINED WITH ~30KT GUSTS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AREAS OF RA/EMBEDDED TS SHOULD SPREAD N/NE ACROSS PRIMARILY SE KS ~16/00Z BUT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT KCNU UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WHEN NLY WINDS WILL GREATLY INCREASE TO ~25KTS SUSTAINED WITH ~35KTS GUSTS LIKELY. SUCH INCREASES WOULD OCCUR OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL & SC KS 03Z-06Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014 SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WILL COMBINE WITH RH`S IN THE MID 20S TO ELEVATE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY OVER CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AREA WIDE TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE LIKELY WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY FOR AREAS THAT ARE NOT SEEING WIDESPREAD PRECIP...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE AREAS WEST OF I-135. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUN KEEPING THE FIRE DANGER ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 71 32 41 23 / 30 60 30 0 HUTCHINSON 71 31 43 23 / 20 40 20 0 NEWTON 71 31 41 22 / 20 60 30 0 ELDORADO 71 31 39 21 / 30 70 40 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 70 34 40 23 / 50 70 40 0 RUSSELL 69 27 45 25 / 10 30 10 0 GREAT BEND 70 29 45 25 / 10 30 10 0 SALINA 72 30 42 22 / 10 50 20 0 MCPHERSON 71 30 42 22 / 20 50 20 0 COFFEYVILLE 70 33 37 21 / 60 100 100 0 CHANUTE 71 32 35 18 / 40 80 70 0 IOLA 72 32 35 18 / 30 80 70 0 PARSONS-KPPF 70 32 36 20 / 50 100 90 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ053-069>072- 093>096-098>100. WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033- 047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1054 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014 .UPDATE... MORNING FORECAST UPDATE AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... MORNING VIS SATELLITE SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER HOLDING TEMPS IN THE MID 60S. CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP ENOUGH AS MIXING OCCURS FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO LOW 70S. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS FIRST OF 2 UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES OVER NEW MEXICO. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO W TX. SECOND SHORT WAVE REMAINS BACK OVER THE ROCKIES AND SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE S ROCKIES INTO MEXICO TONIGHT. SOUTHERN BRANCH OF JET WILL INCREASE OVER TX THIS AFTERNONO AS LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. AT SFC...SFC LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF KSWW SOUTH OF KCDS. WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS RED RIVER REGION OF N TX WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION IN OK. WARM SECTOR MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S HAVE PUSHED AS FAR NORTH AS HOUSTON THIS MORNING. MAIN ISSUE WITH SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WHETHER THE CAP ERODES OVER THE AREA. THE 12Z KCRP AND KLCH SHOW FAIRLY STOUT CAPPING AT 800-700MB. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT CAP MAY ERODE SOME AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE LEAD SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY BE THE CASE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A PERIOD IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON THAT CONVECTION COULD INITIATE AND THEN MOVE NE OUT OF THE AREA. LATEST RAP RUNS SUPPORT THIS IDEA ALONG WITH THE NAM AND HRRR. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AND INCLUDED MENTION OF SEVERE. LIKE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF HAIL/WIND BUT BOTH LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH THE CAP ERODING...COULD SEE ROTATING STORMS SO TORNADOES WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL ESPCIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN AREA FOR THIS THREAT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF A COLLEGE STATION TO HUNTSVILLE LINE INTO E AND NE TX. THINK THE THREAT WILL END AROUND MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE LIMITING CONVECTION DOWN THE FRONT BUT LATEST NAM DOES DEVELOP CONVECTION SUNDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS WITH NEXT FORECAST UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 58 62 36 61 / 60 60 20 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 73 63 67 40 61 / 40 40 20 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 70 62 67 44 57 / 20 20 20 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1049 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014 .UPDATE... HI RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN HOTTER WITH PRECIP...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND S MTNS. HRRR HAS 5-10" OF SNOW OVER THE WETS/N FACE SPANISH PEAKS/CENTRAL SANGRES AND PARTS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION. THESE AMOUNTS LOOK HIGH...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS IN CONVECTIVE BURSTS. PLEASE SEE NDFD PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS. /HODANISH && .AVIATION... MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT TAF SITES TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME SNOW BURST AT KCOS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THAT COULD REDUCE VIS OF IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS. IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATES...IT WILL BE ON GRASSY AREAS AS RUNWAYS QUITE WARM. HOWEVER...SNOW BURST COULD BE QUITE INTENSE FOR BRIEF PDS OF TIME. WX SYSTEM SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY EARLY EVENING ALL AREAS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014/ UPDATE... PER DISCUSSIONS WITH NWS BOU AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...HAVE UPPED POPS ON PALMER DVD AS INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP WITH SNOW PRODUCTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE DVD. COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO (OR MORE) OF SNOW ON MAINLY GRASSY AREAS. /HODANISH PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014/ SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) AN UPR LEVEL TROF WL BE MOVING ACRS THE STATE TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS WL TURN NORTHERLY IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING...AND WL BECOMING QUITE WINDY OVR MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS TODAY. THESE STRONG WINDS WL PROBABLY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVR THE PLAINS...BUT AT THIS TIME AM THINKING THE VSBY IN BLOWING DUST WL NOT BE LOWER THAN A MILE OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA...SO WL NOT ISSUE A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY...WL JUST MENTION BLOWING DUST IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SOME PCPN TO MOVE INTO THE CONTDVD...MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTNS THIS MORNING...THEN SPREADING TO THE ERN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ISOLD CHANCES FOR PCPN IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND MAYBE OVR THE PALMER DVD...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SERN PLAINS WL BE DRY TODAY. SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OVR THE MTS TODAY. TEMPS TODAY ARE A BIT CHALLENGING...BUT WL GENERALLY KEEP HIGHS ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR EVEN A LITTLE COOLER. THIS EVENING PCPN CHANCES WL GENERALLY DECREASE...BUT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING PCPN CONTINUING OVR THE PIKES PEAK...TELLER COUNTY AND PALMER DVD AREAS...AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTS OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY TO MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES. THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS TONIGHT OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS. LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SW FOR SUN AND MON...PRODUCING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA. LOOK FOR TEMPS AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS ON SUN...THEN WELL INTO THE 70S ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM HELP TO BOOST TEMPS DRAMATICALLY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL POTENTIALLY BE AN ISSUE FOR MON. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS DOWN ACROSS MT AND WY ON MON...PRODUCING SOME PCPN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS BY LATE MON AFTN. THE BRUNT OF THE PCPN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR LATE MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORN...THOUGH MODELS DISAGREE A BIT ON THE PLACEMENT AND EFFECT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. GFS AND NAM MODELS KEEP THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH...WITH MUCH LESS PCPN COVERAGE FOR THE CWA. THE EC DIGS SOUTH...PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN FOR THE AREA. ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MTS...BUT KEPT ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY TUE. EXPECT A 20 DEG DROP IN TEMPS FOR TUE...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY COMING TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PREDOMINATE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH FRI...WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS ON WED WILL WARM INTO THE MID 60S BY FRI. MOORE AVIATION...UPDATED... STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS AT KCOS AND KPUB...AND AROUND 30 KTS AT KALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS AND KPUB TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF BLDU RESTRICITING VSBYS AT TIMES ACROSS THE SERN PLAINS. KALS WILL HAVE SOME DENSE FOG THRU ABOUT MIDMORNING...OTRW VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF KALS THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE VCNTY OF KCOS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 99/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2014 ...Update to aviation for 00Z TAFs... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014 The main meteorological feature of interest was a mid level cyclone centered across West Texas this afternoon. The RAP model analyzed the mid level potential vorticity (PV) anomaly across West Texas with greatest PV advection pushing into the Red River region of TX-OK border. Numerous thunderstorms were ongoing in this region down into North Central Texas. Closer to home, there was negligible influence of the West Texas low on southwestern Kansas weather. There were a few mid and high level clouds scattered about, but sufficient insolation allowed temperatures to warm well into the mid to upper 60s. A strong cold front continued to push south this afternoon with the front reaching roughly a Guymon-Garden City-Norton KS line as of 20Z. The strongest winds were over the High Plains of eastern Colorado where blowing dust was being reported, especially in the La Junta area. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014 Winds will be the main forecast challenge tonight and how to handle with the wind advisory headline. Earlier in the day we extended the advisory to start sooner, especially across the western and northern counties. All the guidance, including RAP and NAM forecast soundings, suggest a fairly prolonged period of 25 to 28 knots sustained this evening through about 09Z. Thereafter, the focus of the wind will shift into south-central Kansas with the gradient relaxing roughly west of a Meade to Dodge City to Hays line toward daybreak. As far as precipitation is concerned, we eliminated POPs everywhere except south-central Kansas where we kept 20-30 POPs across mainly Barber County in the low level frontogenetic zone. RAP and HRRR have shown a persistent convective signal in this area with several hundred J/kg of MLCAPE. Any convection which does affect Barber County this evening will quickly move southeast into northern Oklahoma, so the threat for anything substantial as far as a prolonged strong or even severe threat is extremely minimal. Low level cold advection will prevail tonight, but with the winds keeping the boundary layer mixed, we really won`t see terribly low temperatures for lows -- mainly in the 29-33F range for much of the southwest Kansas region. The downslope component in the lower troposphere will eliminate the cold advection, and with insolation resuming we should see temperatures Sunday warm up into the upper 40s to near 50 in some locations. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014 Medium range models indicate an upper level ridge axis transitioning southeastward across the Western High Plains Monday while an upper level trough of low pressure tracks east-southeast across the Pacific Northwest. Along with a fairly weak flow aloft, this will result in dry conditions across western Kansas through Monday night. The upper level trough will then push further southeast into the Northern Plains Tuesday setting up precip chances from the Dakotas southward into Nebraska and possibly Kansas. Although an attendant cold front is projected to push through western Kansas early Tuesday, the bulk of the upper level system will pass just to our north. Along with drier air in the lower levels, little if any rain is expected Tuesday...so a slight chance for rain seems reasonable. Drier conditions are then expected to persist through mid week as the flow aloft becomes more zonal. Well above normal temperatures are expected Monday as lee side troughing develops and strengthens across eastern Colorado. This will set up a low level flow across western Kansas helping to draw much warmer air into the area with H85 temperatures in the mid Teens(C) across central Kansas to near 20C closer to the Colorado border. Look for widespread highs up into the 70s(F) Monday afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are likely Tuesday as a cold front pushes through western Kansas early in the day. Colder air will surges southward into the area with the H85 0C isotherm reaching as far south as the I-70 corridor by late Tuesday afternoon. Highs are only expected up into the 50s(F) across west central Kansas to possibly the lower to mid 60s(F) in south central Kansas. More seasonal temperatures are expected through the end of the week as the flow aloft becomes more zonal. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014 TAF critical period short term concern is winds. The gradient wind will increase in the wake of a fropa. Northerly wind vectors with magnitudes around 30 kt expected this evening. The gradient wind will spread east and decrease from west to east as well. By 12Z tomorrow morning, winds should be N/NNE 20-25 kt, except farther east, where stronger winds will last longer. Cigs should be mainly VFR, with MVFR stratus psbl tmrw AM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 32 49 27 73 / 10 0 0 0 GCK 30 49 28 75 / 10 0 0 0 EHA 31 52 32 78 / 10 0 0 0 LBL 32 51 27 78 / 10 0 0 0 HYS 30 48 26 72 / 10 0 0 0 P28 35 49 24 73 / 30 10 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Sunday FOR KSZ030-031- 043>046-061>063-074-075-084-085. WIND ADVISORY until 1 PM CDT Sunday FOR KSZ064>066-076>081- 086>090. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Umscheid SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...JJohnson AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
340 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2014 ...Updated Synopsis and Short Term sections... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014 The main meteorological feature of interest was a mid level cyclone centered across West Texas this afternoon. The RAP model analyzed the mid level potential vorticity (PV) anomaly across West Texas with greatest PV advection pushing into the Red River region of TX-OK border. Numerous thunderstorms were ongoing in this region down into North Central Texas. Closer to home, there was negligible influence of the West Texas low on southwestern Kansas weather. There were a few mid and high level clouds scattered about, but sufficient insolation allowed temperatures to warm well into the mid to upper 60s. A strong cold front continued to push south this afternoon with the front reaching roughly a Guymon-Garden City-Norton KS line as of 20Z. The strongest winds were over the High Plains of eastern Colorado where blowing dust was being reported, especially in the La Junta area. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014 Winds will be the main forecast challenge tonight and how to handle with the wind advisory headline. Earlier in the day we extended the advisory to start sooner, especially across the western and northern counties. All the guidance, including RAP and NAM forecast soundings, suggest a fairly prolonged period of 25 to 28 knots sustained this evening through about 09Z. Thereafter, the focus of the wind will shift into south-central Kansas with the gradient relaxing roughly west of a Meade to Dodge City to Hays line toward daybreak. As far as precipitation is concerned, we eliminated POPs everywhere except south-central Kansas where we kept 20-30 POPs across mainly Barber County in the low level frontogenetic zone. RAP and HRRR have shown a persistent convective signal in this area with several hundred J/kg of MLCAPE. Any convection which does affect Barber County this evening will quickly move southeast into northern Oklahoma, so the threat for anything substantial as far as a prolonged strong or even severe threat is extremely minimal. Low level cold advection will prevail tonight, but with the winds keeping the boundary layer mixed, we really won`t see terribly low temperatures for lows -- mainly in the 29-33F range for much of the southwest Kansas region. The downslope component in the lower troposphere will eliminate the cold advection, and with insolation resuming we should see temperatures Sunday warm up into the upper 40s to near 50 in some locations. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014 Medium range models indicate an upper level ridge axis transitioning southeastward across the Western High Plains Monday while an upper level trough of low pressure tracks east-southeast across the Pacific Northwest. Along with a fairly weak flow aloft, this will result in dry conditions across western Kansas through Monday night. The upper level trough will then push further southeast into the Northern Plains Tuesday setting up precip chances from the Dakotas southward into Nebraska and possibly Kansas. Although an attendant cold front is projected to push through western Kansas early Tuesday, the bulk of the upper level system will pass just to our north. Along with drier air in the lower levels, little if any rain is expected Tuesday...so a slight chance for rain seems reasonable. Drier conditions are then expected to persist through mid week as the flow aloft becomes more zonal. Well above normal temperatures are expected Monday as lee side troughing develops and strengthens across eastern Colorado. This will set up a low level flow across western Kansas helping to draw much warmer air into the area with H85 temperatures in the mid Teens(C) across central Kansas to near 20C closer to the Colorado border. Look for widespread highs up into the 70s(F) Monday afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are likely Tuesday as a cold front pushes through western Kansas early in the day. Colder air will surges southward into the area with the H85 0C isotherm reaching as far south as the I-70 corridor by late Tuesday afternoon. Highs are only expected up into the 50s(F) across west central Kansas to possibly the lower to mid 60s(F) in south central Kansas. More seasonal temperatures are expected through the end of the week as the flow aloft becomes more zonal. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014 Light winds this afternoon will quickly change to a strong north wind by late afternoon. Wind speeds will likely peak during the early to mid evening hours at around 27 to 29 knots sustained...but 24 to 27 knots will persist through much of the night and into the morning Sunday at all three terminals (DDC, GCK, HYS). There will also likely be a 3 to 5 hour period of MVFR ceilings in stratus, but any ceiling should dissolve by mid-morning as the storm system responsible pulls away from the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 32 49 27 73 / 10 0 0 0 GCK 30 49 28 75 / 10 0 0 0 EHA 31 52 32 78 / 10 0 0 0 LBL 32 51 27 78 / 10 0 0 0 HYS 30 48 26 72 / 10 0 0 0 P28 35 49 24 73 / 30 10 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Sunday FOR KSZ030-031- 043>046-061>063-074-075-084-085. WIND ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Sunday FOR KSZ064>066-076>081-086>090. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Umscheid SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...JJohnson AVIATION...Umscheid