Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/11/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
1015 AM PDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW TIMING OF RAIN AND SNOW PUSHING SOUTHWARD
AS FRONT AWAITS SHORTWAVE STILL OUT AROUND 135W. SOME LIGHT RAIN
WITH SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY
WITH SPRINKLES MOST AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIPITATION OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN AREAS MAY EVEN LIGHTEN JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT
LATE TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WITH THE FRONT. LOWERED POPS
ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND IN THE TAHOE BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING
BUT MAINTAINED THE HIGH POPS FURTHER NORTH. ALSO, WINDS ALONG THE
RIDGES ARE SLOW TO COME UP WITH THE 12Z NAM/LATEST HRRR NOT
BRINGING LAKE WINDS UP DRAMATICALLY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. SO
ADJUSTED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO REMOVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH WITH CHOP TO 2
FEET, BUT MUCH ROUGHER WATERS WILL ARRIVE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. ALL UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. HOHMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM PDT SUN MAR 9 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
TODAY INTO MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS AREAS LAKES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE TUESDAY RISING TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS AN
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH GUIDES SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOST PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY
NORTH OF THE TAHOE BASIN INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. HIGH SNOW
LEVELS TODAY (>8000 FT) SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAINFALL ACROSS
MOST PASSES WITH A FEW TENTHS OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS
THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL PICK UP WINDS ACROSS THE
RIDGES WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN 30-40KTS. THIS MAY CREATE
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY
AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY WHERE GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE TAHOE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE AND MIXING ENHANCES.
HAVE DELAYED TIMING WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN AS
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TROUGHS PROGRESSION AND PROVIDE A QUICK SHOT
OF PRECIP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND
6000-6500 FEET DURING THIS TIME AND MAY ALLOW A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO OCCUR NEAR LAKE LEVEL WITH A SLUSHY INCH OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO LOWERED QPF ACROSS THE CREST FROM TAHOE SOUTH
INTO MONO COUNTY. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE
8000 FEET WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN MONO COUNTY. NOT MUCH
MEANINGFUL RAIN ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE ACROSS RENO/CARSON WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS (A FEW
TENTHS) POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN WASHOE AND PERSHING COUNTY WHERE
BETTER DYNAMICS, MOISTURE, AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS BOTH LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE.
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND LOWER 40S FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS NEVADA.
THIS MAY ALSO PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS TAHOE PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WESTERN SHORES WITH THE EAST GRADIENT IN PLACE. FUENTES
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL, ALTHOUGH RIDGING IS STARTING TO
REBUILD ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS STARTING TO
RELAX, THE WINDS WILL BE LESS ON WEDNESDAY THAN TUESDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MORE THAN A
COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND HOWEVER, SOUTH WINDS RETURN
AND TEMPERATURES MAY REACH INTO THE LOW 70S IN WESTERN NEVADA. HOON
AVIATION...
A STORM ARRIVING LATE TODAY WILL BRING RAIN TO WESTERN NV AND
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE SIERRA. TERMINALS LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED WILL BE FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
MODERATE PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
MAY DROP TO NEAR LAKE LEVEL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT KTRK/KTVL...BUT LIGHT
SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF SNOW LEVELS DROPPING. TURBULENCE...ICING...AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
WEISHAHN/HOON
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
354 AM PDT Sun Mar 9 2014
.Synopsis...
A stream of Pacific moisture will bring precipitation to the
region today and early Monday, especially for areas north of I-80.
Breezy winds are possible Tuesday. Dry and mild conditions return
for the remainder of the week.
&&
Discussion...
A 1.25-1.5" precipitable water plume (per latest satellite
estimates) is on track to bring precipitation to NorCal next 36
hours. Areas north of I-80 will see the most precip with periods
of rain today into early tomorrow, while areas south may not see
anything until later tonight. At the surface, recent KSMF
aircraft soundings indicate a very dry layer persisting around
800mb. One would expect precip aloft to have a tough time
reaching the surface given this dry layer, yet light rain has
been reported tonight from around Yuba City northward, indicating
more saturated profiles north of KSMF. High-res models have had a
tough time handling this situation as none of them are indicating
any Valley precip until later today (although the HRRR has
trended wetter in recent runs). Meanwhile, the latest radar
mosaic shows this early round of precip waning offshore, with the
more focused precip associated with a frontal band much further
north. All this makes for a complicated precip forecast today
from Redding south. Have opted for a slight chance of rain from
Sac vicinity northward, with better chances in the Redding/Red
Bluff area and a good bet over the mountains.
The action picks up late today into tonight as the trough axis
moves inland and an associated upper-level jetstreak brushes the
region. Closer to the surface, a cold front (most evident in
frontogenesis plots from 850-700mb) pushes southeastward across
NorCal with the moisture plume at its leading edge. The jet
position puts our area in the favorable right entrance region,
while the frontogenesis provides extra dynamics. Meanwhile, the
NAM is showing some marginal instability close to the surface
associated with the front. Have thus included a slight chance of
thunderstorms tonight, with the timing matching expecting frontal
passage. The front is currently expected to reach the North Sac
Valley around 3z-9z and the I-80 corridor by 9-15z. While this
timing is not the best for thunderstorms, our recent convective
event a few days ago demonstrated that frontal convection can
still go on overnight. Several difference worth noting between
this event and the last is the preceding surface dewpoints will
not be as high and surface convergence will not be as strong,
making the current event less favorable for convection compared
to the last.
Precipitation across the area should come to an end quickly by
mid-day Monday as drier air moves in and developing subsidence
aloft works against any lingering showers. Only lingering chance
could be some orographically-enhanced showers over the mountains.
Due to the subtropical origin of the moisture plume, snow levels
will be quite high and above Sierra passes today. Snow levels
will quickly lower behind the cold front to around 5500 to 6000
ft by mid-day tomorrow, although precip will be winding down by
that point. All told, we`re looking at 2-6 inches of snow near
Sierra pass levels with up to 10 inches over the higher peaks.
Lower elevations in the mountains can expect 1-2+ inches of rain,
with the Feather River area and parts of Shasta County likely
seeing the most. In the Valley, 0.5-1" is expected in the North
Sac Valley, tapering to a quarter inch or less from Sacramento
southward.
Tight surface pressure gradients will develop on the backside of
the trough by Tuesday along with strong winds around 700mb. This
would bring gusty north winds to the north and west sides of the
Sacramento Valley, strong east winds for the west slope of the
Northern Sierra, and very strong winds to mountain ridgetops.
-DVC
.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)
Increasing confidence that high pressure will strengthen across
the region later this week and next weekend. This will result in
dry weather with very mild temperatures for the interior of
NorCal. Look for Central Valley highs to warm through the 70s into
the lower 80s by the weekend with mountain readings warming from
the 50s and 60s into the 60s and 70s.
&&
.Aviation...
Little change in the pattern expected through 06Z Monday as
moisture continues to stream up into NorCal from the southwest.
VFR conditions will continue with CIGS generally 070-100 with sctd
-SHRA mainly N of I-80. Front moves S aft 06Z with widespread MVFR
conditions developing with IFR conditions over higher terrain.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
353 AM PDT Sun Mar 9 2014
.Synopsis...
A stream of Pacific moisture will bring precipitation to the
region today and Monday, especially for areas north of I-80.
Breezy winds are possible Tuesday. Dry and mild conditions return
for the remainder of the week.
&&
Discussion...
A 1.25-1.5" precipitable water plume (per latest satellite
estimates) is on track to bring precipitation to NorCal next 36
hours. Areas north of I-80 will see the most precip with periods
of rain today into early tomorrow, while areas south may not see
anything until later tonight. At the surface, recent KSMF
aircraft soundings indicate a very dry layer persisting around
800mb. One would expect precip aloft to have a tough time
reaching the surface given this dry layer, yet light rain has
been reported tonight from around Yuba City northward, indicating
more saturated profiles north of KSMF. High-res models have had a
tough time handling this situation as none of them are indicating
any Valley precip until later today (although the HRRR has
trended wetter in recent runs). Meanwhile, the latest radar
mosaic shows this early round of precip waning offshore, with the
more focused precip associated with a frontal band much further
north. All this makes for a complicated precip forecast today
from Redding south. Have opted for a slight chance of rain from
Sac vicinity northward, with better chances in the Redding/Red
Bluff area and a good bet over the mountains.
The action picks up late today into tonight as the trough axis
moves inland and an associated upper-level jetstreak brushes the
region. Closer to the surface, a cold front (most evident in
frontogenesis plots from 850-700mb) pushes southeastward across
NorCal with the moisture plume at its leading edge. The jet
position puts our area in the favorable right entrance region,
while the frontogenesis provides extra dynamics. Meanwhile, the
NAM is showing some marginal instability close to the surface
associated with the front. Have thus included a slight chance of
thunderstorms tonight, with the timing matching expecting frontal
passage. The front is currently expected to reach the North Sac
Valley around 3z-9z and the I-80 corridor by 9-15z. While this
timing is not the best for thunderstorms, our recent convective
event a few days ago demonstrated that frontal convection can
still go on overnight. Several difference worth noting between
this event and the last is the preceding surface dewpoints will
not be as high and surface convergence will not be as strong,
making the current event less favorable for convection compared
to the last.
Precipitation across the area should come to an end quickly by
mid-day Monday as drier air moves in and developing subsidence
aloft works against any lingering showers. Only lingering chance
could be some orographically-enhanced showers over the mountains.
Due to the subtropical origin of the moisture plume, snow levels
will be quite high and above Sierra passes today. Snow levels
will quickly lower behind the cold front to around 5500 to 6000
ft by mid-day tomorrow, although precip will be winding down by
that point. All told, we`re looking at 2-6 inches of snow near
Sierra pass levels with up to 10 inches over the higher peaks.
Lower elevations in the mountains can expect 1-2+ inches of rain,
with the Feather River area and parts of Shasta County likely
seeing the most. In the Valley, 0.5-1" is expected in the North
Sac Valley, tapering to a quarter inch or less from Sacramento
southward.
Tight surface pressure gradients will develop on the backside of
the trough by Tuesday along with strong winds around 700mb. This
would bring gusty north winds to the north and west sides of the
Sacramento Valley, strong east winds for the west slope of the
Northern Sierra, and very strong winds to mountain ridgetops.
-DVC
.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)
Increasing confidence that high pressure will strengthen across
the region later this week and next weekend. This will result in
dry weather with very mild temperatures for the interior of
NorCal. Look for Central Valley highs to warm through the 70s into
the lower 80s by the weekend with mountain readings warming from
the 50s and 60s into the 60s and 70s.
&&
.Aviation...
Little change in the pattern expected through 06Z Monday as
moisture continues to stream up into NorCal from the southwest.
VFR conditions will continue with CIGS generally 070-100 with sctd
-SHRA mainly N of I-80. Front moves S aft 06Z with widespread MVFR
conditions developing with IFR conditions over higher terrain.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
719 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE POLAR JET STREAM WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. THEREAFTER THE POLAR JET
LIFTS NORTHWARD ALLOWING MILDER WEATHER TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S! A POWERFUL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND TRACKS OVER OR NEAR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA.
STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAIN AND SNOW WILL
FALL. DRY BUT BITTERLY COLD WEATHER BRIEFLY RETURNS LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY TO BEGIN NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...
HAVE TRIMMED THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT. 18Z NAM AND LATEST RAP CONFINE PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN
NH AND FAR NORTHEAST MA. THIS FITS WITH RADAR TRENDS. SLOWED DOWN
POPS UNTIL AFTER 01Z BUT THEN SPED UP DEPARTURE SUCH THAT IT IS
OFF THE COAST BY APPROX 08Z. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES THIS EVENING. THE
MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...SO ONLY
EXPECTING SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DRY/CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY...AND LARGELY DEPENDENT UPON HOW
QUICKLY THE SKIES CLEAR. AT THIS POINT...THINKING IS THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH CLOUDS LINGERING TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. STAYED CLOSE TO MOS CONSENSUS FOR MIN TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING DOES OPEN THE DOOR
FOR SOME ICING POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MA...WHERE THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...SO NOT PLANNING ANY
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
MAINLY DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AS MIXING OCCURS...THE
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS TO INCREASE NEAR
20 MPH AND DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 20S. THIS COULD TURN INTO A
POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER DAY...ALL DEPENDS ON HOW DEEP THE MIXING
GETS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROADER...BUT WEAKER...AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVELS LOOK FAIRLY DRY UNTIL
RATHER LATE IN THE NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THINKING PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
STAYED CLOSE TO MOS CONSENSUS FOR THESE PERIODS...BUT DID TRY TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME RECENT BIASES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*** TRENDING WARMER AND WETTER FOR WED/WED NIGHT STORM ***
*** TYPICAL LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS FOR MARCH THIS PERIOD ***
MODEL GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS/NAM/UKMET/GEFS/ECMWF AND
ECENS HAVE ALL TRENDED NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW NOW AND SHOWING
GOOD CLUSTERING AROUND A TRACK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN /I95
CORRIDOR/ OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED-THU. THIS IS A WARMER SOLUTION
THAN SEEN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WHILE THIS IS THE MORE LIKELY
TRACK/SCENARIO AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MAJOR CHANGES IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS BUT KEEP IN MIND MODEL PROJECTIONS AT 60+ HRS RARELY
VERIFY EXACTLY. THUS NEED TO KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR SLIGHT COLDER
OR WARMER SOLUTIONS IN LATER MODEL RUNS. THIS DIRECTLY IMPACTS THE
EVOLUTION OF THE RAIN-SNOW AND ACCOMPANYING SNOWFALL FORECAST. THUS
STILL TOO EARLY TO LOCK INTO PRECISE SNOW TOTALS OR TRANSITION
TIMES.
THE TWO PACKETS OF JET ENERGY THAT WILL MERGE AND RESULT IN
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE CURRENTLY COMING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER PACKET OVER NORTHWEST CANADA AND
ALASKA...NOT A DATA RICH AREA. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TRAILING JET
ENERGY OVER NORTHWEST CANADA AND ALASKA WILL BE KEY...AS MODELS
AGREE THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE MID
LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY FOR A STORM TRACK FARTHER NORTHWEST. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...STILL 60+ HRS OUT SO FOR NOW WILL BLEND ALL 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER WE WILL STAY AWAY FROM THE 12Z NAM THERMAL
FIELDS WHICH ARE DISPLAYING THEIR TYPICAL COLD BIAS AT THIS LONGER
TIME RANGE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...
WED/WED NIGHT...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST...POSSIBLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST MA.
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS SNOW SOMEWHERE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND INTO SOUTHERN NH...THEN THE RAIN-SNOW
LINE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL NH BEFORE CRASHING
SOUTHWARD WED NIGHT AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION
AND WRAPPING COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD. RAIN-SNOW LIKELY TO CRASH
SOUTHEAST ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THEN ISSUE BECOMES HOW MUCH QPF
IS LEFT ONCE COLD AIR ARRIVES. GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE EVOLVING
COMMA HEAD DIFFERENTLY...SO LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
FALL ON THE BACKSIDE. BASED ON THE CURRENT STORM TRACK MOST
CONFIDENCE OF 6"+ ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THAT IS A
COMBINATION OF SNOW ON THE FRONT END WED...MIXED PRECIP WED EVENING
THEN BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THUS WINTER
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. WAS TEMPTED TO BRING
THE WATCH FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY AND NORTHWEST
MIDDLESEX...BUT GIVEN PTYPE ISSUES/UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLUTION IN COMMA
HEAD SNOWS AND EVENT STILL 48-60HRS OUT PLENTY OF TIME TO IRON OUT
THESE DETAILS.
LESS SNOW SOUTHWARD BUT A RISK OF A WINTRY MIX FOR A TIME WED FROM
NORTHERN CT-RI TO THE MASS PIKE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF WRAP AROUND
SNOW WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. ELSEWHERE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL-
SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL EXPECTED ON THE
FRONT END WED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MORE OF A CONCERN. RISK OF
URBAN POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PWATS CLIMB TO +2 STD ABOVE CLIMO
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF TSTMS AS NOSE OF DRY SLOT APPROACHES
/THETA-E DECREASING WITH HEIGHT/ LATE WED-WED NIGHT. WILL LEAVE
TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME RANGE.
WED NIGHT COULD BE SOME CONCERN REGARDING A FLASH FREEZE GIVEN
STANDING WATER FOLLOWED BY VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THU/FRI...SOME COMMA HEAD SNOWS POSSIBLE THU MORNING. THEN FOCUS
BECOMES ANOMALOUS COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH ENSEMBLE 850 AND 925 MB
TEMP ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF -2 STD FROM CLIMO! CORE OF THE COLD
AIR IS OVER NEW ENGLAND 06Z-12Z FRI. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PROVIDE
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOOKING AT A SUPERBLEND OF ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS THU NGT/FRI AM...WE ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF
RECORD LOWS AT BOSTON/PROVIDENCE/BRADLEY AND WORCESTER!
WEEKEND...LIKELY MILDER SAT /40S TO NEAR 50 POSSIBLE!/ AS ENSEMBLES
HAVE LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
ATTENDING FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY CROSSING THE AREA
SOMETIME LATER SAT/SAT NGT/EARLY SUN. TRENDING COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH 00Z...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS.
TONIGHT...VFR EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SNOW
SHOWER IN SOUTHERN NH AND FAR NORTHEAST MA.
TUESDAY...VFR AND DRY ALONG WITH A MODEST NW WIND.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH INCREASING SKY COVER. POTENTIAL MVFR IN
LIGHT SNOW LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND EAST SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WED...MVFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR IN HEAVY
RAIN MOST OF CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON WITH HEAVY SNOW
NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHWEST NH.
PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL FORECAST...
BOS...1-2" POSSIBLE WED NIGHT/THU AM
PVD...1-2" POSSIBLE WED NIGHT/THU AM
BDL...1-2" POSSIBLE WED NIGHT/THU AM
ORH...3-6" POSSIBLE WED/THU
MHT...5-8" POSSIBLE WED/THU
THU...IFR EARLY IMPROVING TO MVFR-VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE.
FRI/SAT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON SEAS FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...SHIFT WEST
DURING TUESDAY. WHILE MAX WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BENEATH 25 KT...THERE COLD BE A STRONG ENOUGH FETCH FOR A
SUFFICIENT PERIOD OF TIME TO GENERATE 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IT IS MARGINAL...BUT
WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED...INTENSIFYING LOW PRES TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST. LOW VSBY IN FOG AND HEAVY RAIN.
THU...GALE CENTER EXITS SOUTHEAST MA INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH NW
GALES LIKELY. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY WITH A LOW RISK OF
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.
FRI/SAT...WINDS EASE FRI BUT THEN SHIFT TO THE SW SAT AND BECOME
GUSTY AS LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NO FLOODING EXPECTED GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW ASTRO TIDES AND NOT MUCH
WIND AND SURGE ANTICIPATED AS TRACK OF SURFACE LOW DIRECTLY OVER OR
VERY CLOSE TO THE REGION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HERE ARE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY MARCH 14TH...
BOSTON.......12/1896...FORECAST LOW...15
PROVIDENCE...12/1948...FORECAST LOW...14
BRADLEY ARPT..7/1948...FORECAST LOW...10
WORCESTER.....4/1948...FORECAST LOW...8
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MAZ002-003-008-009.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK/GAF
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA/GAF
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
633 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014
.UPDATE...THE BACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE COLLING WITH SNOW LEVEL JUST
BEGINNING TO DROP TO AROUND 7700 TO 7900 FEET ELEVATION.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATION THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE
LIMITED TO AN INCH OR SO. THEREFORE THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FLOOD WATCH IN THE
KETCHUM AND HAILEY AREA WAS ALSO ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. LIMITED WATER
RISES WERE OBSERVED ON SMALL STREAMS...ESPECIALLY THE EAST FORK OF
THE BIG WOOD RIVER...BUT THIS WAS LESS THE WATER LEVELS OBSERVED A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO AND NO FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED. REMOTE GAGES
REPORT WATER LEVELS ARE LEVELING OFF. RS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 115 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG STORM CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WEST. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
IDAHO...IT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO DIG MORE SOUTH AND SETTLE OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH AND NEVADA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA...AND FALL
TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AREAWIDE BY MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALSO ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN
THIS EVENING. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING LOCALIZED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
60MPH ACROSS THE PLAIN...BUT MOST GUSTS WILL NOT EXCEED 55MPH. THE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN UNTIL 9PM.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THAT
UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND PERHAPS EXTEND IT INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS
ESPECIALLY AS THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...THE PATTERN BECOMES RATHER COMPLEX THIS EVENING.
IN TERMS OF THE MOUNTAINS...WE WILL SEE TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE. THE FIRST IS ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS
AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD BEAR LAKE. THE OTHER IS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM CHALLIS TO GALENA SUMMIT. THE BIGGER
AMOUNTS OVERALL WILL FALL OVER THE EAST. THE THIRD AREA IS A
COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE. BY MORNING...AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE WILL LIE ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
CRATERS TO POCATELLO LINE. UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE THIS MOISTURE BAND
ACROSS THE BENCHES AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS FROM NEAR ST. ANTHONY TO
AROUND POCATELLO. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER AROUND 4500-5000FT SO
THESE AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST MIX DOWN LOW AND ALL SNOW ABOVE THE
BENCHES. IN TERMS OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...THE
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE 0.10-0.20 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST AND 0.20-0.50
INCHES IN THE EAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A TRACE TO 3 INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD IT APPEARS. WE MAY SEE A
DUSTING ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-15 BUT IT WILL
NOT STICK AROUND LONG. IN TERMS OF WINTER AND FLOOD HEADLINES...WE
WILL LET ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS RIDE AND WILL LET THE EVENING
SHIFT DECIDE IF ANYTHING NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WE WILL SEE ANY RAIN OR SNOW CONFINED TO
AROUND BEAR LAKE AND DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
IDAHO. WE WILL SEE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER TOMORROW AS WELL.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY DRY. WITH THE DRY AREA
MOVING IN...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A VERY CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA AND A DECENT WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER VALLEYS AND ISLAND PARK...WITH 10S
AND 20S ELSEWHERE. GUIDANCE ACTUALLY POINTS TO EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES BUT FOR NOW TRENDED ONLY PARTIALLY THAT DIRECTION.
HIGHS BOUNCE BACK INTO 40S/LOWS 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOW/MID 30S
AT RIDGETOP. KEYES
LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MON NIGHT. LONGWAVE PATTERN
INDICATES A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF IDAHO THAT SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS TO THE COAST STARTING SAT NIGHT. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS THAT MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE...THE MOST LIKELY ONE TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA IS A FRI
NIGHT/SAT SHORTWAVE. ZERO TO LITTLE EFFECT IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
POCATELLO...AND ONLY LITTLE EFFECT NORTH OF THIS. THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM IS HOW WARM IT WILL GET...WITH THE ECMWF BEING COLDER AND
CLOUDIER. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH GETS LARGE BEYOND THE
FRI NIGHT TROUGH. NO REAL SIGNIFICANT WIND WITH TEMPS GENERALLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MESSICK
AVIATION...WIND HAVING A HARD TIME DEVELOPING...AND SUN VALLEY JUST
BELOW FIELD MINIMUMS. LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON. FOR ALL AIRDROMES. LOWEST CIGS
EXPECTED ARE MARGINAL VFR. HRRR GUIDANCE OF LATE NOW SUGGESTS
STRONG WINDS SHORTLY AFTER 11/01Z IN THE KPIH AREA. SHOULDN`T BE MUCH
OF A PROBLEM SINCE THEY ARE ALIGNED WITH THE RUNWAY. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MESSICK
HYDROLOGY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL BELOW 6500 FEET COMBINED
WITH MELTING SNOW WILL CREATE AN INCREASED THREAT OF FLOODING FOR
SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN THE BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER
REGION AND THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE
AREAS INCLUDE THE CITIES OF KETCHUM...HAILEY... ASHTON AND ST
ANTHONY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME. WYATT
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ017-020-021.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT BELOW 6500 FEET FOR THE
IDZ019.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT ABOVE 7000 FEET
FOR THE IDZ019.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
202 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
ANOTHER WARMUP IS IN STORE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ON TAP.
THEN...A PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO
CENTRAL INDIANA MIDWEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...MORE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON MORNING STRATOCU AND OR PATCHY FOG WITH
THE CONCENTRATION THIS AFTERNOON ON TEMPERATURES.
THE RUC13 925 MILLIBAR RH PROGS SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRATOCU DECK...CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS. IT SUGGESTS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS DECK WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...SO LEFT SOME SKY COVER IN THERE THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH LITTLE ELSEWHERE UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING THEIR DEW POINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THE STRATOCU AND OR FOG WILL HANG AROUND LONGER THAN THAT
WITH HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 925 MILLIBARS. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG ARE
GONE...THERE SHOULD BE SUNNY SKIES WITH MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOWING
A DRY COLUMN AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...PREFER THE WARMER 00Z GFS MOS WHICH IS CLOSE
TO 00Z CONSALL. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S WHICH IS JUST
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SHORT TERM SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO CONFIDENCE IS GOOD REGARDING A BLEND.
MODELS KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BUFKIT SUGGESTS MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
GULF CREATING A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A FRONT SHOULD THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE. WITH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN OVERRUNNING REALLY RAMPS UP AND ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS
FROM THE TOP DOWN AS THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
KENTUCKY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND OBS ARE IMPLYING
QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS AND POSSIBLY AC WILL BE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM. THUS...PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF
WHICH HAS MORE SKY COVER THAN ANY BLEND. DESPITE THIS...PREFER
TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER 00Z GFS ONCE AGAIN AS IT HAS BEEN DOING
BETTER WITH THE RECENT WARMER DAYS. ESPECIALLY PREFER THE WARMER
GFS ON MONDAY WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WE SHOULD SEE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEM THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALOFT...HOWEVER AS
THE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF INDIANA BY THURSDAY STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
BY SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AND A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. MEANWHILE THE
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH EJECT AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE SOME POPS AT THAT TIME...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON DAY7.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 091800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS INDIANA
TO WESTERN NEW YORK WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MID AND HIGH
CLOUD CEILINGS. A GOOD LOWER LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE
GOOD MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT...PREVENTING FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONFIRM...SHOWING DRY
LOWER LEVELS WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1246 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
ANOTHER WARMUP IS IN STORE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ON TAP.
THEN...A PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO
CENTRAL INDIANA MIDWEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...MORE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON MORNING STRATOCU AND OR PATCHY FOG WITH
THE CONCENTRATION THIS AFTERNOON ON TEMPERATURES.
THE RUC13 925 MILLIBAR RH PROGS SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRATOCU DECK...CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS. IT SUGGESTS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS DECK WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...SO LEFT SOME SKY COVER IN THERE THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH LITTLE ELSEWHERE UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING THEIR DEW POINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THE STRATOCU AND OR FOG WILL HANG AROUND LONGER THAN THAT
WITH HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 925 MILLIBARS. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG ARE
GONE...THERE SHOULD BE SUNNY SKIES WITH MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOWING
A DRY COLUMN AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...PREFER THE WARMER 00Z GFS MOS WHICH IS CLOSE
TO 00Z CONSALL. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S WHICH IS JUST
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SHORT TERM SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO CONFIDENCE IS GOOD REGARDING A BLEND.
MODELS KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BUFKIT SUGGESTS MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
GULF CREATING A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A FRONT SHOULD THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE. WITH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN OVERRUNNING REALLY RAMPS UP AND ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS
FROM THE TOP DOWN AS THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
KENTUCKY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND OBS ARE IMPLYING
QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS AND POSSIBLY AC WILL BE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM. THUS...PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF
WHICH HAS MORE SKY COVER THAN ANY BLEND. DESPITE THIS...PREFER
TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER 00Z GFS ONCE AGAIN AS IT HAS BEEN DOING
BETTER WITH THE RECENT WARMER DAYS. ESPECIALLY PREFER THE WARMER
GFS ON MONDAY WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WE SHOULD SEE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...THERE IS STILL A DECENT
DISCREPANCY IN HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN...WITH THE GFS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING IT IN. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE
GENERALLY TRIED TO GO WITH ONLY ONE PRECIP TYPE IF BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN AGREEMENT AND A MIX IF THEY DIDN/T. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES LOOK LIKE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE WILL ARRIVE BEFORE OR
CONCURRENT WITH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE SO NO EXPECTATION OF
ANYTHING BESIDES RAIN OR SNOW. THUS STARTED OUT ALL RAIN EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH AFTER 6Z...WITH
RAIN OR SNOW COMING SOUTH TO AROUND I-70...AND RAIN SOUTH OF THERE.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALL SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70 WITH A MIX
SOUTH AND ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ITS WAKE. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH. WITH THE GROUND RELATIVELY WARM BEFORE THIS
STARTS FROM HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THINK IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH AND REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 091800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS INDIANA
TO WESTERN NEW YORK WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MID AND HIGH
CLOUD CEILINGS. A GOOD LOWER LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE
GOOD MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT...PREVENTING FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONFIRM...SHOWING DRY
LOWER LEVELS WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1052 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
ANOTHER WARMUP IS IN STORE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ON TAP.
THEN...A PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO
CENTRAL INDIANA MIDWEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...MORE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON MORNING STRATOCU AND OR PATCHY FOG WITH
THE CONCENTRATION THIS AFTERNOON ON TEMPERATURES.
THE RUC13 925 MILLIBAR RH PROGS SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRATOCU DECK...CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS. IT SUGGESTS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS DECK WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...SO LEFT SOME SKY COVER IN THERE THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH LITTLE ELSEWHERE UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING THEIR DEW POINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THE STRATOCU AND OR FOG WILL HANG AROUND LONGER THAN THAT
WITH HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 925 MILLIBARS. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG ARE
GONE...THERE SHOULD BE SUNNY SKIES WITH MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOWING
A DRY COLUMN AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...PREFER THE WARMER 00Z GFS MOS WHICH IS CLOSE
TO 00Z CONSALL. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S WHICH IS JUST
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SHORT TERM SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO CONFIDENCE IS GOOD REGARDING A BLEND.
MODELS KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BUFKIT SUGGESTS MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
GULF CREATING A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A FRONT SHOULD THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE. WITH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN OVERRUNNING REALLY RAMPS UP AND ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS
FROM THE TOP DOWN AS THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
KENTUCKY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND OBS ARE IMPLYING
QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS AND POSSIBLY AC WILL BE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM. THUS...PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF
WHICH HAS MORE SKY COVER THAN ANY BLEND. DESPITE THIS...PREFER
TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER 00Z GFS ONCE AGAIN AS IT HAS BEEN DOING
BETTER WITH THE RECENT WARMER DAYS. ESPECIALLY PREFER THE WARMER
GFS ON MONDAY WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WE SHOULD SEE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...THERE IS STILL A DECENT
DISCREPANCY IN HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN...WITH THE GFS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING IT IN. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE
GENERALLY TRIED TO GO WITH ONLY ONE PRECIP TYPE IF BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN AGREEMENT AND A MIX IF THEY DIDN/T. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES LOOK LIKE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE WILL ARRIVE BEFORE OR
CONCURRENT WITH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE SO NO EXPECTATION OF
ANYTHING BESIDES RAIN OR SNOW. THUS STARTED OUT ALL RAIN EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH AFTER 6Z...WITH
RAIN OR SNOW COMING SOUTH TO AROUND I-70...AND RAIN SOUTH OF THERE.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALL SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70 WITH A MIX
SOUTH AND ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ITS WAKE. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH. WITH THE GROUND RELATIVELY WARM BEFORE THIS
STARTS FROM HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THINK IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH AND REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 091500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ONGOING TAFS IN GOOD SHAPE AS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
/DISCUSSION FOR 091200Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
MVFR FOG AT KHUF AND KLAF SHOULD BURN OFF BY ABOUT 14Z. MAY SEE
SOME OF THIS AT KBMG THROUGH THEN AS WELL. AT KIND THINKING ANY
FOG IS LESS LIKELY WITH WINDS NOT DROPPING TO CALM AND DEW POINT
DEPRESSION REMAINING A FEW DEGREES SO WILL NOT INCLUDE WITH NEW
ISSUANCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
648 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
ANOTHER WARMUP IS IN STORE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ON TAP.
THEN...A PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO
CENTRAL INDIANA MIDWEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...MORE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON MORNING STRATOCU AND OR PATCHY FOG WITH
THE CONCENTRATION THIS AFTERNOON ON TEMPERATURES.
THE RUC13 925 MILLIBAR RH PROGS SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRATOCU DECK...CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS. IT SUGGESTS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS DECK WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...SO LEFT SOME SKY COVER IN THERE THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH LITTLE ELSEWHERE UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING THEIR DEW POINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THE STRATOCU AND OR FOG WILL HANG AROUND LONGER THAN THAT
WITH HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 925 MILLIBARS. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG ARE
GONE...THERE SHOULD BE SUNNY SKIES WITH MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOWING
A DRY COLUMN AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...PREFER THE WARMER 00Z GFS MOS WHICH IS CLOSE
TO 00Z CONSALL. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S WHICH IS JUST
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SHORT TERM SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO CONFIDENCE IS GOOD REGARDING A BLEND.
MODELS KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BUFKIT SUGGESTS MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
GULF CREATING A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A FRONT SHOULD THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE. WITH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN OVERRUNNING REALLY RAMPS UP AND ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS
FROM THE TOP DOWN AS THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
KENTUCKY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND OBS ARE IMPLYING
QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS AND POSSIBLY AC WILL BE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM. THUS...PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF
WHICH HAS MORE SKY COVER THAN ANY BLEND. DESPITE THIS...PREFER
TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER 00Z GFS ONCE AGAIN AS IT HAS BEEN DOING
BETTER WITH THE RECENT WARMER DAYS. ESPECIALLY PREFER THE WARMER
GFS ON MONDAY WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WE SHOULD SEE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...THERE IS STILL A DECENT
DISCREPANCY IN HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN...WITH THE GFS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING IT IN. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE
GENERALLY TRIED TO GO WITH ONLY ONE PRECIP TYPE IF BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN AGREEMENT AND A MIX IF THEY DIDN/T. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES LOOK LIKE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE WILL ARRIVE BEFORE OR
CONCURRENT WITH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE SO NO EXPECTATION OF
ANYTHING BESIDES RAIN OR SNOW. THUS STARTED OUT ALL RAIN EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH AFTER 6Z...WITH
RAIN OR SNOW COMING SOUTH TO AROUND I-70...AND RAIN SOUTH OF THERE.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALL SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70 WITH A MIX
SOUTH AND ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ITS WAKE. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH. WITH THE GROUND RELATIVELY WARM BEFORE THIS
STARTS FROM HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THINK IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH AND REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 091200Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
MVFR FOG AT KHUF AND KLAF SHOULD BURN OFF BY ABOUT 14Z. MAY SEE
SOME OF THIS AT KBMG THROUGH THEN AS WELL. AT KIND THINKING ANY
FOG IS LESS LIKELY WITH WINDS NOT DROPPING TO CALM AND DEW POINT
DEPRESSION REMAINING A FEW DEGREES SO WILL NOT INCLUDE WITH NEW
ISSUANCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
413 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
ANOTHER WARMUP IS IN STORE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ON TAP.
THEN...A PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO
CENTRAL INDIANA MIDWEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...MORE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON MORNING STRATOCU AND OR PATCHY FOG WITH
THE CONCENTRATION THIS AFTERNOON ON TEMPERATURES.
THE RUC13 925 MILLIBAR RH PROGS SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRATOCU DECK...CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS. IT SUGGESTS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS DECK WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...SO LEFT SOME SKY COVER IN THERE THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH LITTLE ELSEWHERE UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING THEIR DEW POINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THE STRATOCU AND OR FOG WILL HANG AROUND LONGER THAN THAT
WITH HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 925 MILLIBARS. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG ARE
GONE...THERE SHOULD BE SUNNY SKIES WITH MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOWING
A DRY COLUMN AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...PREFER THE WARMER 00Z GFS MOS WHICH IS CLOSE
TO 00Z CONSALL. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S WHICH IS JUST
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SHORT TERM SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO CONFIDENCE IS GOOD REGARDING A BLEND.
MODELS KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BUFKIT SUGGESTS MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
GULF CREATING A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A FRONT SHOULD THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE. WITH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN OVERRUNNING REALLY RAMPS UP AND ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS
FROM THE TOP DOWN AS THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
KENTUCKY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND OBS ARE IMPLYING
QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS AND POSSIBLY AC WILL BE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM. THUS...PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF
WHICH HAS MORE SKY COVER THAN ANY BLEND. DESPITE THIS...PREFER
TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER 00Z GFS ONCE AGAIN AS IT HAS BEEN DOING
BETTER WITH THE RECENT WARMER DAYS. ESPECIALLY PREFER THE WARMER
GFS ON MONDAY WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WE SHOULD SEE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...THERE IS STILL A DECENT
DISCREPANCY IN HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN...WITH THE GFS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING IT IN. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE
GENERALLY TRIED TO GO WITH ONLY ONE PRECIP TYPE IF BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN AGREEMENT AND A MIX IF THEY DIDN/T. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES LOOK LIKE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE WILL ARRIVE BEFORE OR
CONCURRENT WITH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE SO NO EXPECTATION OF
ANYTHING BESIDES RAIN OR SNOW. THUS STARTED OUT ALL RAIN EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH AFTER 6Z...WITH
RAIN OR SNOW COMING SOUTH TO AROUND I-70...AND RAIN SOUTH OF THERE.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALL SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70 WITH A MIX
SOUTH AND ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ITS WAKE. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH. WITH THE GROUND RELATIVELY WARM BEFORE THIS
STARTS FROM HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THINK IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH AND REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 090900Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SAT MAR 8 2014
WITH THE UPDATE WILL BE ADDING AT LEAST SOME MVFR FOG CURRENTLY TO
KLAF AND TO KHUF WITHIN AN HOUR TO ADDRESS CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WITH THOSE SITES TRENDING THAT WAY WILL ALSO ADD SOME TO KBMG AND
KIND BUT A BIT A LATER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF
SITES...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF CEILINGS AROUND 030 IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS. TRAJECTORY OF CLOUD DECK AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA SUGGEST THESE CEILINGS MAY GRAZE THE KHUF TERMINAL AT
TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 091000Z.
SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DIMINISH. LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA...SO WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO 220-240 DEGREES AT 8-10
KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
ANOTHER WARMUP IS IN STORE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ON TAP.
THEN...A PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO
CENTRAL INDIANA MIDWEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...MORE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON MORNING STRATOCU AND OR PATCHY FOG WITH
THE CONCENTRATION THIS AFTERNOON ON TEMPERATURES.
THE RUC13 925 MILLIBAR RH PROGS SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRATOCU DECK...CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS. IT SUGGESTS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS DECK WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...SO LEFT SOME SKY COVER IN THERE THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH LITTLE ELSEWHERE UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING THEIR DEW POINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THE STRATOCU AND OR FOG WILL HANG AROUND LONGER THAN THAT
WITH HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 925 MILLIBARS. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG ARE
GONE...THERE SHOULD BE SUNNY SKIES WITH MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOWING
A DRY COLUMN AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...PREFER THE WARMER 00Z GFS MOS WHICH IS CLOSE
TO 00Z CONSALL. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S WHICH IS JUST
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SHORT TERM SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO CONFIDENCE IS GOOD REGARDING A BLEND.
MODELS KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BUFKIT SUGGESTS MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
GULF CREATING A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A FRONT SHOULD THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE. WITH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN OVERRUNNING REALLY RAMPS UP AND ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS
FROM THE TOP DOWN AS THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
KENTUCKY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND OBS ARE IMPLYING
QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS AND POSSIBLY AC WILL BE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM. THUS...PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF
WHICH HAS MORE SKY COVER THAN ANY BLEND. DESPITE THIS...PREFER
TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER 00Z GFS ONCE AGAIN AS IT HAS BEEN DOING
BETTER WITH THE RECENT WARMER DAYS. ESPECIALLY PREFER THE WARMER
GFS ON MONDAY WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WE SHOULD SEE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
FOCUS OF LONG TERM REMAINS MID WEEK STORM. MODELS ARE TRENDING
FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH MAINLY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
SNOW WEDNESDAY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO TEMPERATURES. ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
REASONABLE BASED ON 850 TEMPS AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED. WILL
INITIALLY SEE A DROP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE RECOVERING AGAIN
BACK INTO THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 090600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF
SITES...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF CEILINGS AROUND 030 IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS. TRAJECTORY OF CLOUD DECK AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA SUGGEST THESE CEILINGS MAY GRAZE THE KHUF TERMINAL AT
TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 091000Z.
SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DIMINISH. LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA...SO WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO 220-240 DEGREES AT 8-10
KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1239 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN THIS WEEK. AFTER A
COOLER DAY SUNDAY...WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE RULE THURSDAY. HOWEVER SEASONAL READINGS WILL RETURN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
ADDED SOME LOW CLOUDS TO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RUC13 SKY COVER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MAIN UPDATE WILL BE TO DROP ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION.
SATELLITE SHOWS A THINNING OUT OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SECTIONS AND CLEARING WILL SPREAD INTO ALL AREAS LATER
TONIGHT.
NOT SURE ABOUT THE PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS...BUT WITH
LIGHT WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL LEAVE IT IN AS IS FOR NOW.
CONCERNING LOW TEMPERATURES...DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER
NORTHWEST SECTIONS PER RAPID REFRESH MODEL. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE REST OF THE
GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN
BE USED.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL EXIT SUNDAY MORNING LEAVING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO THE WARMER MAV MOS NUMBERS.
WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH AND A SOUTHWEST WIND. A FRONT WILL
TRY AND WORK SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY BUT SHOULD DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING SOME CLOUDS. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
BOOST TEMPERATURES. WENT WARMER THAN MOS GIVEN HOW MOS HAS PERFORMED
RECENTLY IN WARMER REGIMES.
FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT WITH A SURFACE LOW WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST FEEL THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY.
WITH COLDER AIR NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY INTO THE AREA /DUE TO THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW/ CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
FOCUS OF LONG TERM REMAINS MID WEEK STORM. MODELS ARE TRENDING
FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH MAINLY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
SNOW WEDNESDAY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO TEMPERATURES. ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
REASONABLE BASED ON 850 TEMPS AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED. WILL
INITIALLY SEE A DROP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE RECOVERING AGAIN
BACK INTO THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 090600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF
SITES...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF CEILINGS AROUND 030 IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS. TRAJECTORY OF CLOUD DECK AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA SUGGEST THESE CEILINGS MAY GRAZE THE KHUF TERMINAL AT
TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 091000Z.
SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DIMINISH. LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA...SO WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO 220-240 DEGREES AT 8-10
KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JH/MK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1052 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED MID LVL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LVL LOW THAT IS CROSSING S TX. LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OFF
THE LOWER TX COAST...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI. AN
INVERTED SFC TROF WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
SELY FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE AREA.
AN AREA OF SEA FOG WAS NOTED OFF THE UPPER TX COAST EARLIER THIS
AFTN...BUT SEE NO INDICATION THAT THIS AREA HAS EDGED BACK OVER
OUR WRN COASTAL ZONES YET BASED ON OBS/SATELLITE DATA.
HOWEVER...STILL THINK PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER THE
WRN NEARSHORE WATERS...OUTSIDE OF SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY...WITH
PATCHY FOG ALSO DEVELOPING OVER INLAND ZONES. NO INDICATIONS OF
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE IT OUT
ENTIRELY AS A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE VISBYS DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE OR
LESS BEFORE TUESDAY MORNING. FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND COULD LAST UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LOWERED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH
ACTIVITY NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. ALSO MADE SOME SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH HIGHEST CHANCES STILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES. REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS
GOOD AND UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE GULF EASTERLIES EXTENDS FROM MARSH
ISLAND TO OFFSHORE LAGUNA MADRE. INCOMING CAMPECHE AIR GENTLY
ASCENDS UPON ENCOUNTERING THE TROUGH.
A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS...ENTERING
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MIDMORNING TUESDAY. ITS ATTENDANT PVA LIFT
WILL PHASE IN WITH THE UPSLIDING LIFT ATTENDING THE INVERTED
TROUGH. RAIN WILL EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
JT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AND
UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH THE PAC NW.
AT THE SFC...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.
AFTER CONTENDING WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY HAS UNFOLDED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF SUN
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING OFF A
LITTLE TO THE EAST INTO TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST A WEAK
RETURN FLOW TO SET UP. WITH SHELF WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S...AREAS OF SEA FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AS AIR CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS BEGINS TO
ADVECT ATOP IT. LATEST HRRR AND RUC FCSTS INDICATE FOG DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF CAMERON...THEN DEVELOPING
FARTHER NORTH/INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DREW IN AREAS OF
FOG THAT GENERALLY MATCHES THIS EVOLUTION...BUT AM A LITTLE
HESITANT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WOULD PREFER TO LET
THE EVENING CREW SEE HOW THE SITUATION BEGINS TO EVOLVE.
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
ASSOCIATED N-S LOW PRESSURE TROF. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES
TO BE PROGGED TO OCCUR OVER THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...AND SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
RETAINED IN THESE AREAS. RAINFALL IS FCST TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY SEA FOG
WILL PERSIST AND PERHAPS EVEN SPREAD FARTHER EAST AMID WINDS
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SW.
ON THE HEELS OF THIS LEAD SYSTEM...A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT
IS STILL ON TRACK TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BRING AN END TO ANY SEA
FOG...AND WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE HAVING BEEN SHUNTED EASTWARD
BY THE LEAD SYSTEM...THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY ONE. AMID
BRISK NORTH WINDS...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO
NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST AS THE POST-FRONTAL HIGH SETTLES SOUTH
INTO TEXAS.
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE...WITH A WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE...AND GENERALLY A BLEND
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LATEST WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED.
13
MARINE...
WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM CAMERON TO HIGH ISLAND
THIS EVENING...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD INTO SABINE AND CALCASIEU
LAKES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE WITHIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 56 71 56 64 / 40 50 10 10
KBPT 56 74 57 66 / 50 40 10 10
KAEX 55 74 56 62 / 30 40 10 10
KLFT 58 71 57 66 / 50 80 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
752 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE GULF EASTERLIES EXTENDS FROM MARSH
ISLAND TO OFFSHORE LAGUNA MADRE. INCOMING CAMPECHE AIR GENTLY
ASCENDS UPON ENCOUNTERING THE TROUGH.
A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS...ENTERING
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MIDMORNING TUESDAY. ITS ATTENDANT PVA LIFT
WILL PHASE IN WITH THE UPSLIDING LIFT ATTENDING THE INVERTED
TROUGH. RAIN WILL EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
JT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AND
UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH THE PAC NW.
AT THE SFC...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.
AFTER CONTENDING WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY HAS UNFOLDED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF SUN
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING OFF A
LITTLE TO THE EAST INTO TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST A WEAK
RETURN FLOW TO SET UP. WITH SHELF WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S...AREAS OF SEA FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AS AIR CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS BEGINS TO
ADVECT ATOP IT. LATEST HRRR AND RUC FCSTS INDICATE FOG DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF CAMERON...THEN DEVELOPING
FARTHER NORTH/INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DREW IN AREAS OF
FOG THAT GENERALLY MATCHES THIS EVOLUTION...BUT AM A LITTLE
HESITANT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WOULD PREFER TO LET
THE EVENING CREW SEE HOW THE SITUATION BEGINS TO EVOLVE.
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
ASSOCIATED N-S LOW PRESSURE TROF. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES
TO BE PROGGED TO OCCUR OVER THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...AND SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
RETAINED IN THESE AREAS. RAINFALL IS FCST TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY SEA FOG
WILL PERSIST AND PERHAPS EVEN SPREAD FARTHER EAST AMID WINDS
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SW.
ON THE HEELS OF THIS LEAD SYSTEM...A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT
IS STILL ON TRACK TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BRING AN END TO ANY SEA
FOG...AND WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE HAVING BEEN SHUNTED EASTWARD
BY THE LEAD SYSTEM...THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY ONE. AMID
BRISK NORTH WINDS...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO
NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST AS THE POST-FRONTAL HIGH SETTLES SOUTH
INTO TEXAS.
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE...WITH A WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE...AND GENERALLY A BLEND
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LATEST WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED.
13
MARINE...
WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM CAMERON TO HIGH ISLAND
THIS EVENING...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD INTO SABINE AND CALCASIEU
LAKES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE WITHIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 57 71 57 65 40 / 50 50 10 10 10
KBPT 56 74 57 66 40 / 60 40 10 10 10
KAEX 55 74 56 62 35 / 20 40 10 10 10
KLFT 58 70 57 66 39 / 40 80 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
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&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1157 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND TODAY. TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE EARLY MONDAY...AND ONE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...THESE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF
SNOW OR RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY...
NOON UPDATE...
HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT A DEGREE FOR MOST AREAS AS
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FORECAST MAXIMUMS ALREADY. HOWEVER... DO NOT
EXPECT A LOT OF ADDITIONAL HEATING AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY... COMBATING THE SOLAR HEATING. OTHER ADJUSTMENTS
WERE TO ZERO OUT POP AND INSERT MORE CLEAR SKIES.
730AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE REGION WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ADJUSTED GRIDS
FOR CURRENT DEWPOINTS AND DIURNAL CURVE BASED ON LAST NIGHTS MIN
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE THE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AS WELL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING
SHUNTED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
LIGHT SNOWFALL EXITING SOUTH OF CAPE COD DURING THE 10Z-16Z TIME
FRAME...LEAVING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ME/NH ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING MARK IN
SOUTHERN AREAS DESPITE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE IS INITIALLY VERY
DRY AT THE ONSET...WITH SUBLIMATION LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY.
ALLOWED FOR A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE HIGHER MET POPS AND THE DRIER
MAV READINGS AS THIS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM CROSSES THE
NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR THE EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY IN ITS WAKE A DRIER DOWNSLOPING
NW FLOW DEVELOPS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S.
ALL EYES ARE ON THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW THAT MODELS ARE KEYING ON FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE BACK INTO CONSENSUS OF FAVORING THE PHASING OF THE
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT WOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
THEN TRACK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL AND ALSO ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE THAT MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON THE POSSIBLE
SCENARIO OF THE FAVORED EURO. BASED ON THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND
CONFIDENCE...WE WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT BY THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAINLY CONTINUING TO BE VFR
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM...
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR SEAS WILL REMAIN UP AS 5 AND 6 FOOTERS
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SWAN MODEL DOING A GOOD JOB
HANDLING THE SWELLS.
LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POSSIBLE
GALE FORCE WINDS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL STORM.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... JC
LONG TERM... RM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
734 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND TODAY. TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE EARLY MONDAY...AND ONE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...THESE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF
SNOW OR RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE REGION WITH JUST SOME SCT CLOUD COVER OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR
CURRENT DEW POINTS AND DIURNAL CURVE BASED ON LAST NIGHTS MIN
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE THE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AS WELL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
PREV DISC...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING
SHUNTED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
LIGHT SNOWFALL EXITING SOUTH OF CAPE COD DURING THE 10Z-16Z TIME
FRAME...LEAVING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ME/NH ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING MARK IN
SOUTHERN AREAS DESPITE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE IS INITIALLY VERY
DRY AT THE ONSET...WITH SUBLIMATION LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT AS ANY -SHSN ATTEMPT TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY.
ALLOWED FOR A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE HIGHER MET POPS AND THE DRIER
MAV READINGS AS THIS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM CROSSES THE
NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR THE EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION MON NIGHT WITH SCT SNW
SHWRS. ON TUE IN ITS WAKE A DRIER DOWNSLOPING NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
ALL EYES ARE ON THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW THAT MODELS ARE KEYING ON FOR LATE WED INTO THU. MODELS ARE
BACK INTO CONCENSUS OF FAVORING THE PHASING OF THE NRN/SRN STREAM
ENERGY THAT WOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. THE TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL FOR AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL AND ALSO
ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. BUT
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON THE POSSIBLE SCENERIO OF THE FAVORED
EURO. BASED ON THE SUPERBLEND GUID AND CONFIDENCE...WE WILL INCREASE
POPS TO LKLY FOR LATE WED INTO THU.
THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT BY THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY CONTINUING TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM...
MVFR CONDS PSBL IN -SHSN MON NIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDS
PSBL LATE WED INTO THU.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR SEAS WILL REMAIN UP AS 5 AND 6 FOOTERS
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SWAN MODEL DOING A GOOD JOB
HANDLING THE SWELLS.
LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY WED. WED
NIGHT AND THU THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PSBL GALE FORCE WINDS
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL STORM.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
357 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND TODAY. TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE EARLY MONDAY...AND ONE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...THESE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF
SNOW OR RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING
SHUNTED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
LIGHT SNOWFALL EXITING SOUTH OF CAPE COD DURING THE 10Z-16Z TIME
FRAME...LEAVING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ME/NH ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING MARK IN
SOUTHERN AREAS DESPITE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE IS INITIALLY VERY
DRY AT THE ONSET...WITH SUBLIMATION LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT AS ANY -SHSN ATTEMPT TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY.
ALLOWED FOR A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE HIGHER MET POPS AND THE DRIER
MAV READINGS AS THIS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM CROSSES THE
NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR THE EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION MON NIGHT WITH SCT SNW
SHWRS. ON TUE IN ITS WAKE A DRIER DOWNSLOPING NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
ALL EYES ARE ON THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW THAT MODELS ARE KEYING ON FOR LATE WED INTO THU. MODELS ARE
BACK INTO CONCENSUS OF FAVORING THE PHASING OF THE NRN/SRN STREAM
ENERGY THAT WOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. THE TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL FOR AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL AND ALSO
ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. BUT
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON THE POSSIBLE SCENERIO OF THE FAVORED
EURO. BASED ON THE SUPERBLEND GUID AND CONFIDENCE...WE WILL INCREASE
POPS TO LKLY FOR LATE WED INTO THU.
THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT BY THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY CONTINUING TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM...
MVFR CONDS PSBL IN -SHSN MON NIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDS
PSBL LATE WED INTO THU.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR SEAS WILL REMAIN UP AS 5 AND 6 FOOTERS
CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY WED. WED
NIGHT AND THU THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PSBL GALE FORCE WINDS
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL STORM.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
JC/RAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAW UP SOME MILDER AIR FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MICHIGAN.
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE IN LOWER
MICHIGAN. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
AMOUNT OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW WITH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...AND THERE IS A
FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO FORM. FSL RUC AND HRRR RUC
ARE SHOWING THESE LOW CLOUDS FORMING. IF THEY DO FORM AND HOLD
THROUGH THE DAY...GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY END UP CORRECT IN SHOWING
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S. HOWEVER LIKE TODAY...THE LOW
CLOUDS DID BREAK UP AND THAT COULD HAPPEN TOMORROW. STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP THIS TO HAPPEN. SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE
MILD LOW 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURES.
LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY IS FAIRLY LOW AS
THE LIFT LOOKS WEAK AND THERE IS SOME DRY AIR BELOW THE MOIST DGZ.
I WILL KEEP THE POPS AT LOW LEVELS. TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THE
LOW TRACKING UP THE OH VALLEY WILL LIKELY SPREAD SNOW INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MI. SOME DECENT MID LEVEL FGEN AND DIVERGENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THERE IS ALSO SOME
WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY SHOWING UP AROUND THE DGZ...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT A STRONGER BAND OF SNOW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS ON
THIS. I WILL MAINTAIN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE I94 CORRIDOR.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW AFTER 00Z WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER SURFACE LOW OVER THE OH
VALLEY FOR WED. WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM...THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS
LIABLE TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THE
STEADIER SNOWS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CLIP AT LEAST THE FAR SE CWA.
SNOW ACCUMS IN CALHOUN AND JACKSON COUNTIES COULD REACH TOWARD SIX
INCHES BY WED EVENING. IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP CUT OFF
TO THE SNOW TO THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96. THIS CONTINUES
TO BE AN EVOLVING SOLUTION AS THE NORTH AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
THAT PRODUCE THIS SYSTEM WAS JUST MAKING IT ONTO THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST TODAY...AND THE SOLUTION IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
THE OTHER IMPRESSIVE ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM IS THE COLD AIR THAT
FOLLOWS IT. H8 TEMPS DIVE TO AROUND -17C...WHICH HAS TRENDED
COLDER. THIS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS ON
WED...INTO THE TEENS BY EVENING. THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT QUICKLY WED
NIGHT AND WITH CLEARING SKIES...MINS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND ZERO.
THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BE RECORD LEVELS. CURRENT RECORDS FOR 03/13
ARE 5F AT GRR...2F AT MKG...AND -3F AT LAN.
THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...BUT
THEN TURNING COOLER AGAIN DURING NEXT WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS APPEAR TO IMPACT SW MI...ALTHOUGH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
IS SHOWN OVER THE TN VALLEY BY SUNDAY WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW
TO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG
WITH A BRISK SW WIND GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL
ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
I HAVE INTRODUCED THE RISK OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
PATCHES OF STRATUS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND THE SET UP LOOKS
SIMILAR FOR MONDAY MORNING...IN FACT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
LOOKS EVEN HEALTHIER. FEEL ALTERNATE FUEL OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS
SHOULD FORM OVER THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND LINGER A FEW HOURS
PAST SUNRISE WHEN THE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT. THE END TIME OF
THE LOW CLOUDS IS SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT HOWEVER AS WE WILL NEED THE
WINDS TO KICK UP AGAIN IN ORDER TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS
COULD LINGER TOWARD MID DAY IN SOME AREAS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS SEEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES IS PREDICTED FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL MELTING. TEMPERATURES DO COOL
DOWN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL SLOWLY DOWN OR
STOP ANY MELTING. TEMPERATURES THEN TRY TO MODERATE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE SNOWPACK WILL ONLY SLOWLY RELEASE SOME
OF ITS WATER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH LIMITED RUNOFF WATER LEVELS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STABLE THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
128 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES DONWSTREAM FROM A RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. AT THE
SFC...SRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN LOW PRES NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AND A RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. IR LOOP SHOWED MID CLOUDS
INCREASING WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WARM FRONT INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS. RADARS AND SFC INDICATED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...NW OF THUNDERBAY...WHERE 285K-295K ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS
STRONGEST.
TODAY...MODELS ALONG WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
THE LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN BUT MAY BRUSH THE NRN KEWEENAW
AND THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...MID CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY ALONG WITH THE SW WINDS. EXPECT ENOUGH
INSOLATION ALONG WITH THE WAA TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY LINGER IN THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE EAST WHERE THICKER CLOUDS PREVAIL.
TONIGHT...AFTER THE NRN ONTARIO MOVES OFF TOT HE EAST...THE TIGHTEST
PORTION OF THE 850-700 TEMP GRADIENT WILL LINGER JUST TO THE N OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK FGEN DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHRTWV MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY
DEVELOP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AGAIN
FOR THE KEWEENAW. WITH AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER...SOME FREEZING RAIN
MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...IF ANY PERSISTENT PCPN DOES
DEVELOP...EVAPORATIVE COOLIN...WOULD LOWER TEMPS FOR MAINLY
SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH/S STRENGTH SEEMS TO BE
WAVERING. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PERIODS OF WARM UP FROM PACIFIC AIR
WORKING EAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. CLIPPER SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WARM UPS WILL GENERALLY
TRACK ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BRING A COUPLE
DAY PERIODS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THEM.
THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AT 12Z MONDAY
AND SLIDING THROUGH ONTARIO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. WITH THIS TRACK...EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING ARE LOCATED. THIS TRACK AND EXPECTED DRY SLOT MOVING
THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH
DOES MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
WEST. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WEST AND KEWEENAW. WIND GUSTS OVER THE WEST WILL DEPEND ON
MIXING AND THAT MAY BE LIMITED WITH THE COOLING FROM THE ICE ON THE
WESTERN LAKE. THAT BEING SAID...DID TREND VALUES UP SEVERAL KNOTS IN
THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH MOST SHOWING HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE GEM
(NH/REGIONAL) CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PARTS OF UPPER
MICHIGAN. WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THEY ARE INDICATING THROUGH
THE MORNING...THAT WOULDN/T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF
AND IT/S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE VERY CONSISTENT (ONLY ABOUT A 4 DEGREE
SPREAD FROM THE 51 MEMBERS) ON HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
COLDEST TEMPS...BUT THAT IS LARGELY TIED TO IT KEEPING LOW CLOUDS
WITH THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT ABOUT 120MI FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. FELT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON HIGHS
AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS. HIGHEST TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...WHERE THE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
DOWNSLOPING TO WARM TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S AND NEAR 50. IF KIMT/KESC
REACH 50 DEGREES...IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE MID NOVEMBER
(17TH).
WITH THE LOW SHIFTING EAST INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL FILTER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA AND LEAD TO A COOLER DAY ON
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COLDER AND THEN WITH THE
MAIN COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SHOULD SEE TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE AROUND -21C (25C COLDER THAN MONDAY) AND THAT SHOULD ONLY
PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE TEENS. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES
BASED OFF THE CONSISTENCY IN THE COLDER HIGHS ON THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS.
DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NORTH TO
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST WINDS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SOME BREAKS
IN THE ICE ON LAKE SUPERIOR IT SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL PROBABLY END UP
TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEING COLDER...SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER SINCE THE
FORCING WILL BE AT THE TOP OF OR ABOVE THE DGZ. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE LOWERS THE
INVERSION AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIKED THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS HANDLING OF THE POPS (LIKELYS IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN) AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.
CLEARING SKIES AND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GEM ARE SHOWING LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. THINK THAT SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PWATS
ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SINCE THE GEM PERFORMS VERY WELL
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...HAVE DROPPED LOWS A GOOD 7-15
DEGREES AND CLOSER TO IT/S VALUES. WITH THE TEMPERATURE FALLING
BELOW ZERO THIS PAST EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WE HAVE PUSHED OUR SUB ZERO DAYS TO 56. THINKING IT WILL
COOL OFF FAST ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO ADD BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO THE SUB ZERO DAYS AND IF THAT OCCURS IT WOULD BREAK THE
RECORD OF 57 DAYS (SET IN 1962-63) AT OUR OFFICE.
WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARMING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 20S EAST AND LOWER 30S WEST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH THE
WAA...SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA ON
THURSDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE CLIPPER THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE BEST PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA LIKE THE LAST TWO SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE COLDER AIR
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND PRODUCE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR
LIGHT SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 03Z
MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM 09-15Z MONDAY. DAYTIME HEATING
AND INCREASING W WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP SCOUR OUT SOME OF
THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE /STUCK AT OR BELOW 4KFT/ DURING THE DAY.
THIS WILL BE DESPITE THE INCREASING SFC TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S OVER W UPPER MI AND DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE LOW 30S.
ADVECTION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP LOWER CEILINGS/VIS
OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
FOG TO IFR CONDITION WOULD BE AT SAW THROUGH MID MORNING WITH S-SW
WINDS BEFORE THEY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF THE W.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
GUSTY SW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. AFTER WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...EXPECT SW WINDS
TO AGAIN INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOUTH OF ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE FCST TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
20 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
755 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES DONWSTREAM FROM A RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. AT THE
SFC...SRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN LOW PRES NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AND A RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. IR LOOP SHOWED MID CLOUDS
INCREASING WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WARM FRONT INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS. RADARS AND SFC INDICATED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...NW OF THUNDERBAY...WHERE 285K-295K ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS
STRONGEST.
TODAY...MODELS ALONG WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
THE LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN BUT MAY BRUSH THE NRN KEWEENAW
AND THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...MID CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY ALONG WITH THE SW WINDS. EXPECT ENOUGH
INSOLATION ALONG WITH THE WAA TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY LINGER IN THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE EAST WHERE THICKER CLOUDS PREVAIL.
TONIGHT...AFTER THE NRN ONTARIO MOVES OFF TOT HE EAST...THE TIGHTEST
PORTION OF THE 850-700 TEMP GRADIENT WILL LINGER JUST TO THE N OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK FGEN DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHRTWV MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY
DEVELOP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AGAIN
FOR THE KEWEENAW. WITH AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER...SOME FREEZING RAIN
MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...IF ANY PERSISTENT PCPN DOES
DEVELOP...EVAPORATIVE COOLIN...WOULD LOWER TEMPS FOR MAINLY
SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH/S STRENGTH SEEMS TO BE
WAVERING. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PERIODS OF WARM UP FROM PACIFIC AIR
WORKING EAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. CLIPPER SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WARM UPS WILL GENERALLY
TRACK ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BRING A COUPLE
DAY PERIODS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THEM.
THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AT 12Z MONDAY
AND SLIDING THROUGH ONTARIO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. WITH THIS TRACK...EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING ARE LOCATED. THIS TRACK AND EXPECTED DRY SLOT MOVING
THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH
DOES MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
WEST. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WEST AND KEWEENAW. WIND GUSTS OVER THE WEST WILL DEPEND ON
MIXING AND THAT MAY BE LIMITED WITH THE COOLING FROM THE ICE ON THE
WESTERN LAKE. THAT BEING SAID...DID TREND VALUES UP SEVERAL KNOTS IN
THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH MOST SHOWING HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE GEM
(NH/REGIONAL) CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PARTS OF UPPER
MICHIGAN. WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THEY ARE INDICATING THROUGH
THE MORNING...THAT WOULDN/T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF
AND IT/S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE VERY CONSISTENT (ONLY ABOUT A 4 DEGREE
SPREAD FROM THE 51 MEMBERS) ON HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
COLDEST TEMPS...BUT THAT IS LARGELY TIED TO IT KEEPING LOW CLOUDS
WITH THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT ABOUT 120MI FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. FELT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON HIGHS
AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS. HIGHEST TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...WHERE THE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
DOWNSLOPING TO WARM TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S AND NEAR 50. IF KIMT/KESC
REACH 50 DEGREES...IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE MID NOVEMBER
(17TH).
WITH THE LOW SHIFTING EAST INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL FILTER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA AND LEAD TO A COOLER DAY ON
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COLDER AND THEN WITH THE
MAIN COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SHOULD SEE TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE AROUND -21C (25C COLDER THAN MONDAY) AND THAT SHOULD ONLY
PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE TEENS. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES
BASED OFF THE CONSISTENCY IN THE COLDER HIGHS ON THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS.
DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NORTH TO
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST WINDS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SOME BREAKS
IN THE ICE ON LAKE SUPERIOR IT SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL PROBABLY END UP
TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEING COLDER...SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER SINCE THE
FORCING WILL BE AT THE TOP OF OR ABOVE THE DGZ. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE LOWERS THE
INVERSION AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIKED THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS HANDLING OF THE POPS (LIKELYS IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN) AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.
CLEARING SKIES AND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GEM ARE SHOWING LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. THINK THAT SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PWATS
ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SINCE THE GEM PERFORMS VERY WELL
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...HAVE DROPPED LOWS A GOOD 7-15
DEGREES AND CLOSER TO IT/S VALUES. WITH THE TEMPERATURE FALLING
BELOW ZERO THIS PAST EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WE HAVE PUSHED OUR SUB ZERO DAYS TO 56. THINKING IT WILL
COOL OFF FAST ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO ADD BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO THE SUB ZERO DAYS AND IF THAT OCCURS IT WOULD BREAK THE
RECORD OF 57 DAYS (SET IN 1962-63) AT OUR OFFICE.
WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARMING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 20S EAST AND LOWER 30S WEST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH THE
WAA...SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA ON
THURSDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE CLIPPER THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE BEST PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA LIKE THE LAST TWO SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE COLDER AIR
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND PRODUCE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR
LIGHT SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
WAA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE
INCREASING MID CLOUDS TODAY BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUED SRLY FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS AND SOME REDUCTION IN VSBY
WITH FOG. IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT SAW...WITH MORE OF
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
GUSTY SW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. AFTER WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...EXPECT SW WINDS
TO AGAIN INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOUTH OF ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE FCST TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
20 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
522 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES DONWSTREAM FROM A RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. AT THE
SFC...SRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN LOW PRES NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AND A RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. IR LOOP SHOWED MID CLOUDS
INCREASING WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WARM FRONT INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS. RADARS AND SFC INDICATED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...NW OF THUNDERBAY...WHERE 285K-295K ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS
STRONGEST.
TODAY...MODELS ALONG WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
THE LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN BUT MAY BRUSH THE NRN KEWEENAW
AND THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...MID CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY ALONG WITH THE SW WINDS. EXPECT ENOUGH
INSOLATION ALONG WITH THE WAA TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY LINGER IN THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE EAST WHERE THICKER CLOUDS PREVAIL.
TONIGHT...AFTER THE NRN ONTARIO MOVES OFF TOT HE EAST...THE TIGHTEST
PORTION OF THE 850-700 TEMP GRADIENT WILL LINGER JUST TO THE N OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK FGEN DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHRTWV MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY
DEVELOP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AGAIN
FOR THE KEWEENAW. WITH AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER...SOME FREEZING RAIN
MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...IF ANY PERSISTENT PCPN DOES
DEVELOP...EVAPORATIVE COOLIN...WOULD LOWER TEMPS FOR MAINLY
SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH/S STRENGTH SEEMS TO BE
WAVERING. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PERIODS OF WARM UP FROM PACIFIC AIR
WORKING EAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. CLIPPER SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WARM UPS WILL GENERALLY
TRACK ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BRING A COUPLE
DAY PERIODS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THEM.
THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AT 12Z MONDAY
AND SLIDING THROUGH ONTARIO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. WITH THIS TRACK...EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING ARE LOCATED. THIS TRACK AND EXPECTED DRY SLOT MOVING
THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH
DOES MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
WEST. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WEST AND KEWEENAW. WIND GUSTS OVER THE WEST WILL DEPEND ON
MIXING AND THAT MAY BE LIMITED WITH THE COOLING FROM THE ICE ON THE
WESTERN LAKE. THAT BEING SAID...DID TREND VALUES UP SEVERAL KNOTS IN
THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH MOST SHOWING HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE GEM
(NH/REGIONAL) CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PARTS OF UPPER
MICHIGAN. WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THEY ARE INDICATING THROUGH
THE MORNING...THAT WOULDN/T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF
AND IT/S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE VERY CONSISTENT (ONLY ABOUT A 4 DEGREE
SPREAD FROM THE 51 MEMBERS) ON HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
COLDEST TEMPS...BUT THAT IS LARGELY TIED TO IT KEEPING LOW CLOUDS
WITH THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT ABOUT 120MI FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. FELT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON HIGHS
AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS. HIGHEST TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...WHERE THE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
DOWNSLOPING TO WARM TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S AND NEAR 50. IF KIMT/KESC
REACH 50 DEGREES...IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE MID NOVEMBER
(17TH).
WITH THE LOW SHIFTING EAST INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL FILTER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA AND LEAD TO A COOLER DAY ON
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COLDER AND THEN WITH THE
MAIN COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SHOULD SEE TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE AROUND -21C (25C COLDER THAN MONDAY) AND THAT SHOULD ONLY
PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE TEENS. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES
BASED OFF THE CONSISTENCY IN THE COLDER HIGHS ON THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS.
DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NORTH TO
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST WINDS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SOME BREAKS
IN THE ICE ON LAKE SUPERIOR IT SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL PROBABLY END UP
TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEING COLDER...SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER SINCE THE
FORCING WILL BE AT THE TOP OF OR ABOVE THE DGZ. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE LOWERS THE
INVERSION AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIKED THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS HANDLING OF THE POPS (LIKELYS IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN) AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.
CLEARING SKIES AND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GEM ARE SHOWING LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. THINK THAT SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PWATS
ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SINCE THE GEM PERFORMS VERY WELL
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...HAVE DROPPED LOWS A GOOD 7-15
DEGREES AND CLOSER TO IT/S VALUES. WITH THE TEMPERATURE FALLING
BELOW ZERO THIS PAST EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WE HAVE PUSHED OUR SUB ZERO DAYS TO 56. THINKING IT WILL
COOL OFF FAST ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO ADD BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO THE SUB ZERO DAYS AND IF THAT OCCURS IT WOULD BREAK THE
RECORD OF 57 DAYS (SET IN 1962-63) AT OUR OFFICE.
WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARMING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 20S EAST AND LOWER 30S WEST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH THE
WAA...SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA ON
THURSDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE CLIPPER THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE BEST PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA LIKE THE LAST TWO SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE COLDER AIR
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND PRODUCE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR
LIGHT SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER UPPER MI WILL SLIDE EAST LATE TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SW WINDS BY SUN MORNING
WITH GUSTS NEARING 20-25KTS BY MIDDAY AT BOTH IWD AND SAW. NOT
EXPECTING LLWS TO BE AN ISSUE AS STRONGEST WSW WINDS TO NEAR 50 KT
BTWN 1.5-2 KFT WILL BE OCCURRING BY LATE SUN MORNING WHEN MIXING AND
GUSTS START OCCURRING AT THE SFC. WAA WILL CAUSE INCREASING MID
CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU PD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
GUSTY SW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. AFTER WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...EXPECT SW WINDS
TO AGAIN INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOUTH OF ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE FCST TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
20 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1202 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION.
CHANCES OVERALL REMAIN LOW AND NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WITH THIS ISSUANCE. SUNDAY NIGHT ONE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS SOME
MOISTENING OF THE DGZ...AND LIFT FROM THE WAVE HERE IN SW LOWER MI.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...I WILL FEATURE LOW POPS FOR THE
REGION NORTH OF A HART TO MOUNT PLEASANT LINE. FURTHER SOUTH...AT
THIS POINT LITTLE OR NO LIFT AROUND TO SUPPORT ADDING POPS.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR MONDAY NIGHT FOR POSSIBLY ADDING
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST. NAM AND HIGH RES EURO KEEP IT
DRY...BUT THE GFS IS SHOWING THE DGZ BECOMING MOIST. THIS IS
RELATED TO MID LEVEL FGEN WITH IS STRONGER WITH THE GFS. I HELD
OFF ON MENTIONING PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE GFS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING...DEWPOINTS ARE ELEVATED
COMPARED TO FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT WE MAY SEE
SOME FOG/STRATUS TRYING TO DEVELOP VERY LATE. NAM AND HRRR MODELS
ARE SHOWING THIS. I ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
IT STILL APPEARS THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...LEAVING SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE PCPN COULD START TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-96 ALONG A REGION OF FGEN. THEN THE PCPN SHOULD EXPAND AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH. THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD
OCCUR...WITH MAINLY SNOW FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. BEING
THE NORTHERN FRINGE SHOULD GIVE THE AREA MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED FOR I-96...UP TO TWO INCHES OVER THE FAR
SE CWA...TOWARD JXN.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM GOES BY THE REST OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE
QUIET. A CLIPPER SYSTEM GOES BY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...BUT THE
BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH...SO IT MAY GO BY DRY.
AFTER A NEAR NORMAL START TO TEMPS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
40...WE WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVE BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU. TEMPS
SHOULD BE BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER...THEN COOLER
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
FOG/STRATUS FORMATION IS A SMALL CONCERN FOR THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE KEPT THIS
THREAT OUT OF THE TAFS. GUIDANCE SHOWS NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
JUST ABOVE THE SFC WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE THE THREAT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY WITH CLOUD BASES AOA 12K FEET.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME RATHER STRONG/GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT
KMKG. THE GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z WITH PERHAPS THE
EXCEPTION OF MKG.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS SEEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES IS PREDICTED FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL MELTING. TEMPERATURES DO COOL
DOWN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL SLOWLY DOWN OR
STOP ANY MELTING. TEMPERATURES THEN TRY TO MODERATE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE SNOWPACK WILL ONLY SLOWLY RELEASE SOME
OF ITS WATER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH LIMITED RUNOFF WATER LEVELS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STABLE THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1244 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED
AT THIS TIME. MESONET DATA FROM WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
REVEAL NUMEROUS NEDOT...NWS...AND RAWS SITES REACHING RED FLAG
WIND CRITERIA AT THIS HOUR. THE LISCO...LEWELLEN AND COMSTOCK SENSORS
HAVE ALREADY REACHED RFW RH CRITERIA. DEEP BL MIXING IS IN FULL
FORCE AND WILL CONTINUE AS WESTERLY WINDS MIX DOWN DRIER/WARMER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE...WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE BANK OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE THE CLOUDS AS THE DROP SOUTH INTO SRN NEB. THE BEST
GUESS ON TEMPS TODAY IS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. H800MB TEMPS RISE TO
10C WHICH SUPPORTS UPPER 60S. WARMER AIR RESIDES AT 700MB WHICH
COULD PUSH TEMPS HIGHER. MR. DEEP MIXING MODEL...THE RAP...SHOWS
MIXING HEIGHTS REACHING TO AROUND 750 MB FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE HRRR MODEL WHICH SHOWS MID 70S ALSO.
THESE ARE THE WARMEST MODELS. GIVEN THAT KLBF IS AT 39F AT 330AM
CDT WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS...THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST IN THE ONTARIO WITH WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON . A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SETTING UP NORTHWEST WINDS...STILL LIGHT
THOUGH. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO JUST THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...THEN WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITTING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL SEE LITTLE MOVEMENT INTO MONDAY.
LOOKING FURTHER NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL PUSH ON LAND AND INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY. BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE INFLUENCE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST...WITH LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING OVER WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM IS THE
WARMER SOLUTION...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 13C TO 18C BY 00Z
TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER...YET STILL ANOMALOUSLY WARM. CHECKING STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WERE GENERALLY AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING POTENTIAL TO
AROUND 800MB...AND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ROUTINELY TOO LOW
WITH MIXING HEIGHTS LATELY THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM SEEING DEEP MIXING TO 700MB OR SO. THESE
FACTORS ARE FIRST...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO KEEP
WINDS LIGHT AND NOT HELP WITH MIXING...AND SECOND THINKING THERE
MIGHT BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD LIMIT THE SURFACE WARMING SLIGHTLY. THAT
BEING SAID...STILL THINKING HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S LOOKS GOOD.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST LIFT WITH THE SYSTEM STAYS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK FROM WYOMING
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT THIS SIGNAL SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LOOKING AT MOISTURE IN SOUNDINGS AND
CROSS SECTIONS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE ABOUT 6 HOURS OF POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND AS THE COLUMN DOES NOT SATURATE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT BACKED OFF
ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
TUESDAY MORNING.
THE LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES LOOK TO WANE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND THIS SIGNAL IS BEING SHOWN BY THE
NAM...WITH THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SIGNAL IN THE QPF FIELDS...SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOST AREAS SEEING AT LEAST A FEW HOURS ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAYING SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. MAY
HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING A BIT LONG INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT KEPT LOW END
CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WILL RE-EVALUATE ON UPCOMING
SHIFTS. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT SO IT WILL BEGIN AS RAIN THEN AS THE
COLUMN COOLS AND THE WET BULB STAYS BELOW ZERO THROUGH ALL BUT THE
LOWEST LAYER COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SNOW INTO THE
EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...IF IT DOES EVEN
ACCUMULATE DUE TO THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL BE
FAIRLY STAGNANT...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST PART OF THE COUNTRY
AND A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THIS WILL PUT THE LOCAL
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT COLDER AIR WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT THE PRIMARY ENERGY WILL BE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THAT PARTICULAR
SYSTEM. THEN LOOKING INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG TERM MODELS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL AMPLIFY...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
VFR EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TERMINALS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT OPEN TERMINALS SUCH AS KTIF...KVTN
AND KBBW WHERE GUST POTENTIAL TO 24KTS IS ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE...THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...LEAVING A LIGHT WEST DRAINAGE WIND OF 8KTS OR LESS FOR
MOST TERMINALS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING IS EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THE MIXING TO 725 MB
THE PREVIOUS DAY PER KLBF UA SOUNDING. THIS MIGHT SUPPORT THE LOWER
DEW POINTS SHOWN IN THE GEM REG AND ECM WHICH PUSH RH TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...FOR ABOUT 1 HOUR. THE DEEP VERTICAL MIXING
IS OF LITTLE AVAIL FOR WIND SPEEDS AS THEY FLATTEN OUT TO 15 KT AT
750 MB AND HIGHER. THE GEM AND ECM DO SHOW A BANK OF STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOPING AT THE 500M AGL LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PANHANDLE
WHICH COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA...IF...THE ASSOCIATED SFC
TROF ADVANCES THROUGH THE FCST AREA AS SHOWN BY THE RAP13 MODEL. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE TROF ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
PRODUCES A BANK OF SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST OF 83 AND THEN WEST WINDS
WEST OF 83. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE SHARPNESS OF THE
TROF...TIMING AND THE WINDS SHOWN IN THE GEM AND THE ECM THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH CAN BE CONVERTED TO A WARNING IN MANY AREAS BUT THIS
IS A VERY LOW END WARNING WHICH MIGHT NOT VERIFY GIVEN THE WETNESS
OF THE GROUND AND THE PROPENSITY OF THE SUN TO TRANSPORATE MOISTURE
TO THE AIR. WINDS GUST TO JUST 25 MPH AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY SPORADIC. THE RAP AND HRRR WERE THE BASIS FOR THE WIND GUST
FORECAST WHICH SHOWS THE STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS THE PLATTE VALLEYS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-209.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1232 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE BANK OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE THE CLOUDS AS THE DROP SOUTH INTO SRN NEB. THE BEST
GUESS ON TEMPS TODAY IS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. H800MB TEMPS RISE TO
10C WHICH SUPPORTS UPPER 60S. WARMER AIR RESIDES AT 700MB WHICH
COULD PUSH TEMPS HIGHER. MR. DEEP MIXING MODEL...THE RAP...SHOWS
MIXING HEIGHTS REACHING TO AROUND 750 MB FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE HRRR MODEL WHICH SHOWS MID 70S ALSO.
THESE ARE THE WARMEST MODELS. GIVEN THAT KLBF IS AT 39F AT 330AM
CDT WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS...THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST IN THE ONTARIO WITH WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON . A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SETTING UP NORTHWEST WINDS...STILL LIGHT
THOUGH. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO JUST THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...THEN WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITTING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL SEE LITTLE MOVEMENT INTO MONDAY.
LOOKING FURTHER NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL PUSH ON LAND AND INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY. BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE INFLUENCE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST...WITH LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING OVER WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM IS THE
WARMER SOLUTION...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 13C TO 18C BY 00Z
TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER...YET STILL ANOMALOUSLY WARM. CHECKING STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WERE GENERALLY AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING POTENTIAL TO
AROUND 800MB...AND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ROUTINELY TOO LOW
WITH MIXING HEIGHTS LATELY THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM SEEING DEEP MIXING TO 700MB OR SO. THESE
FACTORS ARE FIRST...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO KEEP
WINDS LIGHT AND NOT HELP WITH MIXING...AND SECOND THINKING THERE
MIGHT BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD LIMIT THE SURFACE WARMING SLIGHTLY. THAT
BEING SAID...STILL THINKING HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S LOOKS GOOD.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST LIFT WITH THE SYSTEM STAYS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK FROM WYOMING
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT THIS SIGNAL SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LOOKING AT MOISTURE IN SOUNDINGS AND
CROSS SECTIONS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE ABOUT 6 HOURS OF POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND AS THE COLUMN DOES NOT SATURATE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT BACKED OFF
ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
TUESDAY MORNING.
THE LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES LOOK TO WANE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND THIS SIGNAL IS BEING SHOWN BY THE
NAM...WITH THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SIGNAL IN THE QPF FIELDS...SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOST AREAS SEEING AT LEAST A FEW HOURS ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAYING SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. MAY
HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING A BIT LONG INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT KEPT LOW END
CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WILL RE-EVALUATE ON UPCOMING
SHIFTS. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT SO IT WILL BEGIN AS RAIN THEN AS THE
COLUMN COOLS AND THE WET BULB STAYS BELOW ZERO THROUGH ALL BUT THE
LOWEST LAYER COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SNOW INTO THE
EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...IF IT DOES EVEN
ACCUMULATE DUE TO THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL BE
FAIRLY STAGNANT...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST PART OF THE COUNTRY
AND A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THIS WILL PUT THE LOCAL
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT COLDER AIR WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT THE PRIMARY ENERGY WILL BE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THAT PARTICULAR
SYSTEM. THEN LOOKING INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG TERM MODELS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL AMPLIFY...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
VFR EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TERMINALS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT OPEN TERMINALS SUCH AS KTIF...KVTN
AND KBBW WHERE GUST POTENTIAL TO 24KTS IS ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE...THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...LEAVING A LIGHT WEST DRAINAGE WIND OF 8KTS OR LESS FOR
MOST TERMINALS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING IS EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THE MIXING TO 725 MB
THE PREVIOUS DAY PER KLBF UA SOUNDING. THIS MIGHT SUPPORT THE LOWER
DEW POINTS SHOWN IN THE GEM REG AND ECM WHICH PUSH RH TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...FOR ABOUT 1 HOUR. THE DEEP VERTICAL MIXING
IS OF LITTLE AVAIL FOR WIND SPEEDS AS THEY FLATTEN OUT TO 15 KT AT
750 MB AND HIGHER. THE GEM AND ECM DO SHOW A BANK OF STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOPING AT THE 500M AGL LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PANHANDLE
WHICH COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA...IF...THE ASSOCIATED SFC
TROF ADVANCES THROUGH THE FCST AREA AS SHOWN BY THE RAP13 MODEL. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE TROF ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
PRODUCES A BANK OF SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST OF 83 AND THEN WEST WINDS
WEST OF 83. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE SHARPNESS OF THE
TROF...TIMING AND THE WINDS SHOWN IN THE GEM AND THE ECM THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH CAN BE CONVERTED TO A WARNING IN MANY AREAS BUT THIS
IS A VERY LOW END WARNING WHICH MIGHT NOT VERIFY GIVEN THE WETNESS
OF THE GROUND AND THE PROPENSITY OF THE SUN TO TRANSPORATE MOISTURE
TO THE AIR. WINDS GUST TO JUST 25 MPH AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY SPORADIC. THE RAP AND HRRR WERE THE BASIS FOR THE WIND GUST
FORECAST WHICH SHOWS THE STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS THE PLATTE VALLEYS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-209.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
628 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE BANK OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE THE CLOUDS AS THE DROP SOUTH INTO SRN NEB. THE BEST
GUESS ON TEMPS TODAY IS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. H800MB TEMPS RISE TO
10C WHICH SUPPORTS UPPER 60S. WARMER AIR RESIDES AT 700MB WHICH
COULD PUSH TEMPS HIGHER. MR. DEEP MIXING MODEL...THE RAP...SHOWS
MIXING HEIGHTS REACHING TO AROUND 750 MB FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE HRRR MODEL WHICH SHOWS MID 70S ALSO.
THESE ARE THE WARMEST MODELS. GIVEN THAT KLBF IS AT 39F AT 330AM
CDT WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS...THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST IN THE ONTARIO WITH WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON . A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SETTING UP NORTHWEST WINDS...STILL LIGHT
THOUGH. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO JUST THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...THEN WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITTING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL SEE LITTLE MOVEMENT INTO MONDAY.
LOOKING FURTHER NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL PUSH ON LAND AND INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY. BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE INFLUENCE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST...WITH LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING OVER WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM IS THE
WARMER SOLUTION...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 13C TO 18C BY 00Z
TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER...YET STILL ANOMALOUSLY WARM. CHECKING STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WERE GENERALLY AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING POTENTIAL TO
AROUND 800MB...AND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ROUTINELY TOO LOW
WITH MIXING HEIGHTS LATELY THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM SEEING DEEP MIXING TO 700MB OR SO. THESE
FACTORS ARE FIRST...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO KEEP
WINDS LIGHT AND NOT HELP WITH MIXING...AND SECOND THINKING THERE
MIGHT BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD LIMIT THE SURFACE WARMING SLIGHTLY. THAT
BEING SAID...STILL THINKING HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S LOOKS GOOD.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST LIFT WITH THE SYSTEM STAYS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK FROM WYOMING
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT THIS SIGNAL SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LOOKING AT MOISTURE IN SOUNDINGS AND
CROSS SECTIONS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE ABOUT 6 HOURS OF POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND AS THE COLUMN DOES NOT SATURATE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT BACKED OFF
ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
TUESDAY MORNING.
THE LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES LOOK TO WANE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND THIS SIGNAL IS BEING SHOWN BY THE
NAM...WITH THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SIGNAL IN THE QPF FIELDS...SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOST AREAS SEEING AT LEAST A FEW HOURS ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAYING SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. MAY
HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING A BIT LONG INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT KEPT LOW END
CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WILL RE-EVALUATE ON UPCOMING
SHIFTS. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT SO IT WILL BEGIN AS RAIN THEN AS THE
COLUMN COOLS AND THE WET BULB STAYS BELOW ZERO THROUGH ALL BUT THE
LOWEST LAYER COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SNOW INTO THE
EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...IF IT DOES EVEN
ACCUMULATE DUE TO THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL BE
FAIRLY STAGNANT...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST PART OF THE COUNTRY
AND A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THIS WILL PUT THE LOCAL
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT COLDER AIR WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT THE PRIMARY ENERGY WILL BE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THAT PARTICULAR
SYSTEM. THEN LOOKING INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG TERM MODELS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL AMPLIFY...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING IS EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THE MIXING TO 725 MB
THE PREVIOUS DAY PER KLBF UA SOUNDING. THIS MIGHT SUPPORT THE LOWER
DEW POINTS SHOWN IN THE GEM REG AND ECM WHICH PUSH RH TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...FOR ABOUT 1 HOUR. THE DEEP VERTICAL MIXING
IS OF LITTLE AVAIL FOR WIND SPEEDS AS THEY FLATTEN OUT TO 15 KT AT
750 MB AND HIGHER. THE GEM AND ECM DO SHOW A BANK OF STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOPING AT THE 500M AGL LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PANHANDLE
WHICH COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA...IF...THE ASSOCIATED SFC
TROF ADVANCES THROUGH THE FCST AREA AS SHOWN BY THE RAP13 MODEL. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE TROF ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
PRODUCES A BANK OF SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST OF 83 AND THEN WEST WINDS
WEST OF 83. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE SHARPNESS OF THE
TROF...TIMING AND THE WINDS SHOWN IN THE GEM AND THE ECM THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH CAN BE CONVERTED TO A WARNING IN MANY AREAS BUT THIS
IS A VERY LOW END WARNING WHICH MIGHT NOT VERIFY GIVEN THE WETNESS
OF THE GROUND AND THE PROPENSITY OF THE SUN TO TRANSPORATE MOISTURE
TO THE AIR. WINDS GUST TO JUST 25 MPH AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY SPORADIC. THE RAP AND HRRR WERE THE BASIS FOR THE WIND GUST
FORECAST WHICH SHOWS THE STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS THE PLATTE VALLEYS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-209.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
418 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE BANK OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE THE CLOUDS AS THE DROP SOUTH INTO SRN NEB. THE BEST
GUESS ON TEMPS TODAY IS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. H800MB TEMPS RISE TO
10C WHICH SUPPORTS UPPER 60S. WARMER AIR RESIDES AT 700MB WHICH
COULD PUSH TEMPS HIGHER. MR. DEEP MIXING MODEL...THE RAP...SHOWS
MIXING HEIGHTS REACHING TO AROUND 750 MB FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE HRRR MODEL WHICH SHOWS MID 70S ALSO.
THESE ARE THE WARMEST MODELS. GIVEN THAT KLBF IS AT 39F AT 330AM
CDT WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS...THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST IN THE ONTARIO WITH WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON . A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SETTING UP NORTHWEST WINDS...STILL LIGHT
THOUGH. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO JUST THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...THEN WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITTING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL SEE LITTLE MOVEMENT INTO MONDAY.
LOOKING FURTHER NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL PUSH ON LAND AND INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY. BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE INFLUENCE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST...WITH LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING OVER WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM IS THE
WARMER SOLUTION...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 13C TO 18C BY 00Z
TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER...YET STILL ANOMALOUSLY WARM. CHECKING STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WERE GENERALLY AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING POTENTIAL TO
AROUND 800MB...AND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ROUTINELY TOO LOW
WITH MIXING HEIGHTS LATELY THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM SEEING DEEP MIXING TO 700MB OR SO. THESE
FACTORS ARE FIRST...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO KEEP
WINDS LIGHT AND NOT HELP WITH MIXING...AND SECOND THINKING THERE
MIGHT BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD LIMIT THE SURFACE WARMING SLIGHTLY. THAT
BEING SAID...STILL THINKING HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S LOOKS GOOD.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST LIFT WITH THE SYSTEM STAYS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK FROM WYOMING
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT THIS SIGNAL SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LOOKING AT MOISTURE IN SOUNDINGS AND
CROSS SECTIONS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE ABOUT 6 HOURS OF POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND AS THE COLUMN DOES NOT SATURATE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT BACKED OFF
ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
TUESDAY MORNING.
THE LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES LOOK TO WANE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND THIS SIGNAL IS BEING SHOWN BY THE
NAM...WITH THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SIGNAL IN THE QPF FIELDS...SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOST AREAS SEEING AT LEAST A FEW HOURS ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAYING SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. MAY
HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING A BIT LONG INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT KEPT LOW END
CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WILL RE-EVALUATE ON UPCOMING
SHIFTS. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT SO IT WILL BEGIN AS RAIN THEN AS THE
COLUMN COOLS AND THE WET BULB STAYS BELOW ZERO THROUGH ALL BUT THE
LOWEST LAYER COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SNOW INTO THE
EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...IF IT DOES EVEN
ACCUMULATE DUE TO THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL BE
FAIRLY STAGNANT...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST PART OF THE COUNTRY
AND A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THIS WILL PUT THE LOCAL
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT COLDER AIR WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT THE PRIMARY ENERGY WILL BE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THAT PARTICULAR
SYSTEM. THEN LOOKING INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG TERM MODELS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL AMPLIFY...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDINESS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT TO BECOME 26014G23KT AFTER 15Z. WEST WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
BY 00Z/10TH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING IS EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THE MIXING TO 725 MB
THE PREVIOUS DAY PER KLBF UA SOUNDING. THIS MIGHT SUPPORT THE LOWER
DEW POINTS SHOWN IN THE GEM REG AND ECM WHICH PUSH RH TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...FOR ABOUT 1 HOUR. THE DEEP VERTICAL MIXING
IS OF LITTLE AVAIL FOR WIND SPEEDS AS THEY FLATTEN OUT TO 15 KT AT
750 MB AND HIGHER. THE GEM AND ECM DO SHOW A BANK OF STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOPING AT THE 500M AGL LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PANHANDLE
WHICH COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA...IF...THE ASSOCIATED SFC
TROF ADVANCES THROUGH THE FCST AREA AS SHOWN BY THE RAP13 MODEL. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE TROF ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
PRODUCES A BANK OF SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST OF 83 AND THEN WEST WINDS
WEST OF 83. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE SHARPNESS OF THE
TROF...TIMING AND THE WINDS SHOWN IN THE GEM AND THE ECM THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH CAN BE CONVERTED TO A WARNING IN MANY AREAS BUT THIS
IS A VERY LOW END WARNING WHICH MIGHT NOT VERIFY GIVEN THE WETNESS
OF THE GROUND AND THE PROPENSITY OF THE SUN TO TRANSPORATE MOISTURE
TO THE AIR. WINDS GUST TO JUST 25 MPH AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY SPORADIC. THE RAP AND HRRR WERE THE BASIS FOR THE WIND GUST
FORECAST WHICH SHOWS THE STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS THE PLATTE VALLEYS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-209.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1126 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP BEHIND THE PASSING FRONTAL SYSTEM...
BUT THEY ARE ON THE WAY. STILL EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND
THEN IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY 17Z SUNDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED
AROUND TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
UNGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/
UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. LATEST SURFACE OBS
SHOW COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CWA AND CURRENTLY NEAR A
HOHENWALD TO COOKEVILLE LINE. RADAR SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
SPREADING INTO WESTERN ZONES...BUT HRRR INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT MAINLY WEST OF I-65. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
FOR ALL AREAS BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED
SKY COVER AND TEMPS BASED ON OBS WITH REST OF FORECAST GENERALLY
ON TRACK.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1213 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CIGS SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING BUT STILL FEEL CIGS WILL BECOME
MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON AND VFR BY EVENING BEFORE FALLING BACK TO
MVFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH REGARD
TO CIG HTS OVERNIGHT. RAP TENDS TO SUPPORT THE GFS SO LEANED A BIT
IN THE DIRECTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AND SE ON
MONDAY MORNING. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/
UPDATE...
LARGE OFFSHORE LIGHT RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY PULLING EAST THIS MORNING
..LIGHT RAIN ENDING ALONG THE COAST THIS HOUR. AFTER THIS EARLY
MORNING MUCK OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG CLEARS OUT WE WILL BE LEFT
WITH AN OVERCAST...COOL AND DAMP DAY. CONVECTION FIRING EAST OF
THE WESTERN GULF SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROF WILL KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THE COASTAL BEND UP INTO
THE MATAGORDA BAY REGION. ENSEMBLE SLOWING THE EASTERN PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SONARA/CHIHUAHUA PROVINCES AND TAKING
IT SOUTH OF SE`ERN TX EARLY TUESDAY THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS/QPF OVER THE COASTAL REGIONS/GULF LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. SUBSEQUENT WEEK DAY WARMTH WITH CLEARING SKIES GOING
INTO MID-WEEK. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AREA RADAR SHOW SOME RAIN STRETCHING MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 WITH A
BROAD AREA OF RAIN BACK TOWARDS VICTORIA. SFC COLD FRONT HAS JUST
PUSHED OFF THE COAST WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S BEHIND IT. UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS HAS 850MB FRONT FROM W OF DFW TO JUST NORTH OF JCT.
SEEMS THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT HAS LED TO RAIN ACTIVITY
OVER SE TX WHICH SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING AS 925-850MB FLOW
WEAKENS. ANALYSIS AT 500MB SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING FROM THE PLAINS
BACK TO THE DESERT SW. WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT OVER
THE S PLAINS WHILE SECOND LOW CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS S
TX. THIS SEEMS TO BE FORCING MODERATE RAIN BACK TO THE SW NEAR
VCT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS DECIDED TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG
THE COAST MAINLY 60/70 PERCENT. 06Z RUN OF HRRR SEEMS TO SUPPORT
THIS IDEA ALONG WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. DO
NOT THINK HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. LOOKS LIKE 1.5
INCH PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL STAY OVER THE GULF. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOP.
BASED ON GFS/ECMWF/NAM 00Z MODEL TRENDS...THINK THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN RAINFALL SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY EXCEPT FOR THE OFFSHORE
AREAS. ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW
DROPPING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
COMING ACROSS C MEXICO ON MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT. THINK STRONGER
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING SO HAVE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS
WITH A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE LOW THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
BE OFF THE GULF COAST BUT STILL HELD ONTO SOME HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. UPPER LOW THEN MOVES ALONG THE N GULF
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING. AGAIN BECOMING LESS
CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT SEEMS THAT THREAT WILL BE
OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. STILL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW AREAS ALONG
THE COAST TO PICK UP A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
GFS/ECMWF STILL ON TRACK WITH NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED
MORNING. NAM LAGS BEHIND BY ABOUT 6 HRS. FORECAST WILL KEEP WITH
CONSISTENT TRENDS OF THE ECMWF/GFS. AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD BE DRY AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGEST WED AFTERNOON
AS 850MB TEMPS DROP SHARPLY DURING THE DAY. MIN TEMPS THUR
MORNING SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S/40S FOR THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRI
INTO SAT TO END THE WEEK. INTRODUCED SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS COMING OFF THE GULF IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO COME TOGETHER WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR NEXT SUNDAY. 39
MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WILL CARRY CAUTION FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT GALVESTON BAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN ITS WAKE. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 53 46 70 53 77 / 10 10 30 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 56 50 71 54 76 / 20 20 30 50 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 54 65 57 70 / 50 20 40 60 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1051 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
LARGE OFFSHORE LIGHT RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY PULLING EAST THIS MORNING
...LIGHT RAIN ENDING ALONG THE COAST THIS HOUR. AFTER THIS EARLY
MORNING MUCK OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG CLEARS OUT WE WILL BE LEFT
WITH AN OVERCAST...COOL AND DAMP DAY. CONVECTION FIRING EAST OF
THE WESTERN GULF SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROF WILL KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THE COASTAL BEND UP INTO
THE MATAGORDA BAY REGION. ENSEMBLE SLOWING THE EASTERN PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SONARA/CHIHUAHUA PROVINCES AND TAKING
IT SOUTH OF SE`ERN TX EARLY TUESDAY THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS/QPF OVER THE COASTAL REGIONS/GULF LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. SUBSEQUENT WEEK DAY WARMTH WITH CLEARING SKIES GOING
INTO MID-WEEK. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
AXIS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THE METRO AREA TERMINALS HAS
BEGUN TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE COAST AND IS ALSO DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. HI RES MODELS HAVE THIS AREA DIMINISHING BY LATE MORNING
WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHIFTING FURTHER DOWN THE COAST.
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. SOME CONCERN THAT NORTHERN SITES WILL
SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF THIS
TAF PACKAGE. 38
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AREA RADAR SHOW SOME RAIN STRETCHING MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 WITH A
BROAD AREA OF RAIN BACK TOWARDS VICTORIA. SFC COLD FRONT HAS JUST
PUSHED OFF THE COAST WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S BEHIND IT. UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS HAS 850MB FRONT FROM W OF DFW TO JUST NORTH OF JCT.
SEEMS THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT HAS LED TO RAIN ACTIVITY
OVER SE TX WHICH SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING AS 925-850MB FLOW
WEAKENS. ANALYSIS AT 500MB SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING FROM THE PLAINS
BACK TO THE DESERT SW. WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT OVER
THE S PLAINS WHILE SECOND LOW CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS S
TX. THIS SEEMS TO BE FORCING MODERATE RAIN BACK TO THE SW NEAR
VCT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS DECIDED TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG
THE COAST MAINLY 60/70 PERCENT. 06Z RUN OF HRRR SEEMS TO SUPPORT
THIS IDEA ALONG WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. DO
NOT THINK HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. LOOKS LIKE 1.5
INCH PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL STAY OVER THE GULF. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOP.
BASED ON GFS/ECMWF/NAM 00Z MODEL TRENDS...THINK THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN RAINFALL SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY EXCEPT FOR THE OFFSHORE
AREAS. ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW
DROPPING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
COMING ACROSS C MEXICO ON MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT. THINK STRONGER
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING SO HAVE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS
WITH A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE LOW THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
BE OFF THE GULF COAST BUT STILL HELD ONTO SOME HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. UPPER LOW THEN MOVES ALONG THE N GULF
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING. AGAIN BECOMING LESS
CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT SEEMS THAT THREAT WILL BE
OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. STILL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW AREAS ALONG
THE COAST TO PICK UP A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
GFS/ECMWF STILL ON TRACK WITH NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED
MORNING. NAM LAGS BEHIND BY ABOUT 6 HRS. FORECAST WILL KEEP WITH
CONSISTENT TRENDS OF THE ECMWF/GFS. AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD BE DRY AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGEST WED AFTERNOON
AS 850MB TEMPS DROP SHARPLY DURING THE DAY. MIN TEMPS THUR
MORNING SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S/40S FOR THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRI
INTO SAT TO END THE WEEK. INTRODUCED SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS COMING OFF THE GULF IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO COME TOGETHER WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR NEXT SUNDAY. 39
&&
MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WILL CARRY CAUTION FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT GALVESTON BAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN ITS WAKE. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 53 46 70 53 77 / 10 10 30 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 56 50 71 54 76 / 20 20 30 50 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 54 65 57 70 / 50 20 40 60 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
644 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
AXIS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THE METRO AREA TERMINALS HAS
BEGUN TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE COAST AND IS ALSO DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. HI RES MODELS HAVE THIS AREA DIMINISHING BY LATE MORNING
WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHIFTING FURTHER DOWN THE COAST.
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. SOME CONCERN THAT NORTHERN SITES WILL
SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF THIS
TAF PACKAGE. 38
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AREA RADAR SHOW SOME RAIN STRETCHING MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 WITH A
BROAD AREA OF RAIN BACK TOWARDS VICTORIA. SFC COLD FRONT HAS JUST
PUSHED OFF THE COAST WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S BEHIND IT. UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS HAS 850MB FRONT FROM W OF DFW TO JUST NORTH OF JCT.
SEEMS THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT HAS LED TO RAIN ACTIVITY
OVER SE TX WHICH SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING AS 925-850MB FLOW
WEAKENS. ANALYSIS AT 500MB SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING FROM THE PLAINS
BACK TO THE DESERT SW. WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT OVER
THE S PLAINS WHILE SECOND LOW CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS S
TX. THIS SEEMS TO BE FORCING MODERATE RAIN BACK TO THE SW NEAR
VCT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS DECIDED TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG
THE COAST MAINLY 60/70 PERCENT. 06Z RUN OF HRRR SEEMS TO SUPPORT
THIS IDEA ALONG WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. DO
NOT THINK HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. LOOKS LIKE 1.5
INCH PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL STAY OVER THE GULF. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOP.
BASED ON GFS/ECMWF/NAM 00Z MODEL TRENDS...THINK THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN RAINFALL SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY EXCEPT FOR THE OFFSHORE
AREAS. ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW
DROPPING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
COMING ACROSS C MEXICO ON MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT. THINK STRONGER
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING SO HAVE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS
WITH A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE LOW THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
BE OFF THE GULF COAST BUT STILL HELD ONTO SOME HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. UPPER LOW THEN MOVES ALONG THE N GULF
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING. AGAIN BECOMING LESS
CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT SEEMS THAT THREAT WILL BE
OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. STILL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW AREAS ALONG
THE COAST TO PICK UP A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
GFS/ECMWF STILL ON TRACK WITH NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED
MORNING. NAM LAGS BEHIND BY ABOUT 6 HRS. FORECAST WILL KEEP WITH
CONSISTENT TRENDS OF THE ECMWF/GFS. AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD BE DRY AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGEST WED AFTERNOON
AS 850MB TEMPS DROP SHARPLY DURING THE DAY. MIN TEMPS THUR
MORNING SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S/40S FOR THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRI
INTO SAT TO END THE WEEK. INTRODUCED SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS COMING OFF THE GULF IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO COME TOGETHER WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR NEXT SUNDAY.
39
MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WILL CARRY CAUTION FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT GALVESTON BAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN ITS WAKE. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 56 46 70 53 77 / 30 10 30 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 59 49 71 54 76 / 40 20 30 50 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 53 65 57 70 / 60 20 40 60 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
451 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AREA RADAR SHOW SOME RAIN STRETCHING MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 WITH A
BROAD AREA OF RAIN BACK TOWARDS VICTORIA. SFC COLD FRONT HAS JUST
PUSHED OFF THE COAST WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S BEHIND IT. UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS HAS 850MB FRONT FROM W OF DFW TO JUST NORTH OF JCT.
SEEMS THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT HAS LED TO RAIN ACTIVITY
OVER SE TX WHICH SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING AS 925-850MB FLOW
WEAKENS. ANALYSIS AT 500MB SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING FROM THE PLAINS
BACK TO THE DESERT SW. WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT OVER
THE S PLAINS WHILE SECOND LOW CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS S
TX. THIS SEEMS TO BE FORCING MODERATE RAIN BACK TO THE SW NEAR
VCT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS DECIDED TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG
THE COAST MAINLY 60/70 PERCENT. 06Z RUN OF HRRR SEEMS TO SUPPORT
THIS IDEA ALONG WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. DO
NOT THINK HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. LOOKS LIKE 1.5
INCH PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL STAY OVER THE GULF. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOP.
BASED ON GFS/ECMWF/NAM 00Z MODEL TRENDS...THINK THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN RAINFALL SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY EXCEPT FOR THE OFFSHORE
AREAS. ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW
DROPPING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
COMING ACROSS C MEXICO ON MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT. THINK STRONGER
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING SO HAVE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS
WITH A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE LOW THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
BE OFF THE GULF COAST BUT STILL HELD ONTO SOME HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. UPPER LOW THEN MOVES ALONG THE N GULF
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING. AGAIN BECOMING LESS
CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT SEEMS THAT THREAT WILL BE
OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. STILL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW AREAS ALONG
THE COAST TO PICK UP A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
GFS/ECMWF STILL ON TRACK WITH NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED
MORNING. NAM LAGS BEHIND BY ABOUT 6 HRS. FORECAST WILL KEEP WITH
CONSISTENT TRENDS OF THE ECMWF/GFS. AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD BE DRY AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGEST WED AFTERNOON
AS 850MB TEMPS DROP SHARPLY DURING THE DAY. MIN TEMPS THUR
MORNING SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S/40S FOR THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRI
INTO SAT TO END THE WEEK. INTRODUCED SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS COMING OFF THE GULF IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO COME TOGETHER WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR NEXT SUNDAY.
39
&&
.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WILL CARRY CAUTION FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT GALVESTON BAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN ITS WAKE. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 56 46 70 53 77 / 30 10 30 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 59 49 71 54 76 / 40 20 30 50 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 53 65 57 70 / 60 20 40 60 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
624 PM PDT Mon Mar 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and snow will be ending overnight Monday. Quieter weather is
expected through Thursday. A weak weather front will bring light
rain to the area on Friday, with another chance of rain late
Sunday into next Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Made some updates to the forecast for this evening into tonight. I
trimmed out showers in the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area and up much
of the Northern Panhandle. The surface low has pushed well into
Montana with the stratiform precip winding down across much of the
Central Panhandle Mountains (although some snow can be expected
over Lookout Pass this evening). The Spokane/Coeur d`Alene areas
did not see enough warming in the afternoon to achieve our
convective temperature; however, areas to the north and west are
seeing isolated showers developing. Temperatures are a bit too
cold for lightening with these showers, but thermal profiles are
more conducive for thunderstorms in the southeast from the
Northeast Blue Mtns to the Camas Prairie. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to diminish this evening with skies
clearing. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Isolated and scattered afternoon showers will continue
across the northern mtns and across extreme southeast WA and into
the ID Panhandle. These showers will generally only affect the KPUW
and KLWS TAF sites. An isolated lightning strike will also be
possible through about 02Z. Drier air out of Canada will result in
clearing skies through this evening. Fog or low stratus will be
possible late tonight into early Tuesday morning at KSFF, KGEG,
KCOE, KPUW and KLWS, but confidence is low due to the dry air
intrusion. /SVH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 PM PDT Mon Mar 10 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
Rain and snow will be ending overnight Monday. Quieter weather is
expected through Thursday. A weak weather front will bring light
rain to the area on Friday, with another chance of rain late
Sunday into next Monday.
DISCUSSION...
Tonight...cold pool and its associated instability located behind
a passing cold front all exit to the southeast and east tonight.
Small scale triggers rotating around the edges of a small scale
low pressure area nested in this same cooler air will act as
triggers. Additionally there is an increase in instability due to
surface heating allowed by sun breaks across parts of the
lowlands between the east side of the Cascades and the Idaho
Panhandle. For all these reasons and a number of HRRR model runs
depicting just such a scenario the forecast holds onto showers
along with very low wet bulb zero heights allowing for a typical
spring rain/snow/graupel/soft-hail mix of precipitation for
mid-slope down to valley and lowland locations with the expectation
that any accumulation associated with most intense convective
cells will be on the order of minutes rather than hours if at all.
Thunderstorm mention remains southeast third of Washington and
southern half of North Idaho into early evening with idea that
they will be weak, low topped, single or multicell type with
potential to produce heavy rain and small soft hail/collapsed snow
and gusty wind. Storm motion should be southeast at about 25-35
mph. /Pelatti
Tuesday through next Monday: High pressure builds into the area on
Tuesday for drier conditions. We will likely see some late
night/morning fog and low clouds in the valleys, but otherwise
should be nice weather. A minor weather system clips by to our
north on Wednesday evening but we don`t expect much weather from
this, other than some perhaps some mountain wind.
The next real good chance of precipitation arrives on Friday. This
system has a decent moisture tap. But the westerly flow will keep
the precipitation largely confined to the Cascades and Panhandle
mountains. ECMWF is slightly slower and wetter than the GFS. Snow
levels will remain high (6000` south, 5000` north) so there will
be little if any impact from this system. Does not look like
enough rain to cause any flooding concerns.
The weather system on it`s heels looks a little more formidable.
This wave has a narrow but well-defined moisture plume associated
with it. Initially it looks impressive with heavy rain pointed
into Vancouver Island and NW Washington. But as it moves eastward,
the GFS model spins up a low along this front well to our south
(west of San Francisco). This cuts off the moisture supply and we
are left with a dying frontal passage. The ECMWF meanwhile doesn`t
show this, and has a more consolidated wet front moving through on
Sunday night.
Temperatures ahead of this front have the potential to be the
warmest of the season so far, nearing 60F in the Spokane area. But
it won`t take much change in the timing to render a cooler and
wetter day for Sunday than currently forecast. Snow levels will
be very high (7000-8000`) so the passes will be all rain. The snow
levels lower by Monday morning and continue to lower during the
day. RJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 30 48 27 53 32 55 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 29 47 26 52 30 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 32 48 28 54 34 55 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 35 54 33 60 36 62 / 40 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 29 53 26 54 27 55 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 28 45 24 47 28 50 / 10 0 0 0 10 10
Kellogg 30 45 29 49 31 50 / 40 10 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 32 55 30 57 33 60 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 32 53 32 55 33 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 28 52 28 53 30 56 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
453 PM PDT Mon Mar 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and snow will be ending overnight Monday. Quieter weather is
expected through Thursday. A weak weather front will bring light
rain to the area on Friday, with another chance of rain late
Sunday into next Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...cold pool and its associated instability located behind
a passing cold front all exit to the southeast and east tonight.
Small scale triggers rotating around the edges of a small scale
low pressure area nested in this same cooler air will act as
triggers. Additionally there is an increase in instability due to
surface heating allowed by sun breaks across parts of the
lowlands between the east side of the Cascades and the Idaho
Panhandle. For all these reasons and a number of HRRR model runs
depicting just such a scenario the forecast holds onto showers
along with very low wet bulb zero heights allowing for a typical
spring rain/snow/graupel/soft-hail mix of precipitation for
mid-slope down to valley and lowland locations with the expectation
that any accumulation associated with most intense convective
cells will be on the order of minutes rather than hours if at all.
Thunderstorm mention remains southeast third of Washington and
southern half of North Idaho into early evening with idea that
they will be weak, low topped, single or multicell type with
potential to produce heavy rain and small soft hail/collapsed snow
and gusty wind. Storm motion should be southeast at about 25-35
mph. /Pelatti
Tuesday through next Monday: High pressure builds into the area on
Tuesday for drier conditions. We will likely see some late
night/morning fog and low clouds in the valleys, but otherwise
should be nice weather. A minor weather system clips by to our
north on Wednesday evening but we don`t expect much weather from
this, other than some perhaps some mountain wind.
The next real good chance of precipitation arrives on Friday. This
system has a decent moisture tap. But the westerly flow will keep
the precipitation largely confined to the Cascades and Panhandle
mountains. ECMWF is slightly slower and wetter than the GFS. Snow
levels will remain high (6000` south, 5000` north) so there will
be little if any impact from this system. Does not look like
enough rain to cause any flooding concerns.
The weather system on it`s heels looks a little more formidable.
This wave has a narrow but well-defined moisture plume associated
with it. Initially it looks impressive with heavy rain pointed
into Vancouver Island and NW Washington. But as it moves eastward,
the GFS model spins up a low along this front well to our south
(west of San Francisco). This cuts off the moisture supply and we
are left with a dying frontal passage. The ECMWF meanwhile doesn`t
show this, and has a more consolidated wet front moving through on
Sunday night.
Temperatures ahead of this front have the potential to be the
warmest of the season so far, nearing 60F in the Spokane area. But
it won`t take much change in the timing to render a cooler and
wetter day for Sunday than currently forecast. Snow levels will
be very high (7000-8000`) so the passes will be all rain. The snow
levels lower by Monday morning and continue to lower during the
day. RJ
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Isolated and scattered afternoon showers will continue
across the northern mtns and across extreme southeast WA and into
the ID Panhandle. These showers will generally only affect the KPUW
and KLWS TAF sites. An isolated lightning strike will also be
possible through about 02Z. Drier air out of Canada will result in
clearing skies through this evening. Fog or low stratus will be
possible late tonight into early Tuesday morning at KSFF, KGEG,
KCOE, KPUW and KLWS, but confidence is low due to the dry air
intrusion. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 30 48 27 53 32 55 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 29 47 26 52 30 54 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 32 48 28 54 34 55 / 70 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 35 54 33 60 36 62 / 60 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 29 53 26 54 27 55 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 28 45 24 47 28 50 / 20 0 0 0 10 10
Kellogg 30 45 29 49 31 50 / 60 10 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 32 55 30 57 33 60 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 32 53 32 55 33 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 28 52 28 53 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
640 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER
AIR OVER THE REGION AND THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW WARM WILL
TEMPERATURES GET OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THE 10 TO 25
INCHES OF SNOW CURRENTLY SITTING ON THE GROUND. THE 09.00Z GFS
SUGGEST 925 MB TEMPERATURES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM ABOUT 0C ACROSS THE NORTH TO 7C IN THE SOUTH. THE WARMEST AIR
SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WHEN 10C AIR AT 925 MB GETS INTO
THE SOUTHERN AREAS BEFORE COOLING TAKES OVER MONDAY WITH VALUES
RETURNING TO SIMILAR LEVELS THAT ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. THE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SHOW VERY LIMITED MIXING TO OCCUR
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER POSSIBLY
REACHING INTO THIS WARMER AIR AT 925 MB. THE OTHER COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS THE SNOW PACK AND A LOOK BACK AT PAST EVENTS SHOWS KRST
HAS NEVER TOPPED 45 DEGREES WITH 20 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND
WHILE KLSE HAS HIT 50 DEGREES ONLY ABOUT 5 TIMES WITH ANY AMOUNT
OF SNOW PACK. WHILE THE SUN ANGLE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...JUST DO
NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ENERGY FROM THE SUN TO OVERCOME THE
SNOW PACK AND WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
MONDAY...DROPPED THE TEMPERATURES BACK JUST A LITTLE BIT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION WILL START MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ENERGY COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC TONIGHT
WILL SEND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. MOST OF THE
FORCING FROM THE PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MISS THE AREA TO
THE SOUTH...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD
PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER. MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THESE WAVES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO BE IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER...BUT LOOKS TO SET UP MORE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN IOWA
WITH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AND RAISED THE
CHANCES UP TO 70 PERCENT FOR NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. SOME CONCERN WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES AT THE ONSET.
LOOK LIKE ICE SHOULD BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS BUT WITH A WARM
LAYER ALOFT BETWEEN 900 AND 850 MB. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME
PARTIAL MELTING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET OCCURRING.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE BASED ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY SHOULD EXIT THE REGION
DURING THE EVENING AND REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH THE MODELS ALL SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THIS FLOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES THOUGH
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS WAVE WILL BE ALONG WITH
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE 09.00Z ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH
AND CURRENTLY THE ONLY MODEL SUGGESTING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THIS
TIME FRAME WITH THE GFS AND 09.00Z GEM KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. UNTIL MORE OF A MODEL
CONSENSUS DEVELOPS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN MODERATING INTO THE 40S FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS /MAINLY ABOVE 15K FEET/ MOVED INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO
AROUND 10K FEET THIS EVENING...AND THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR AS
SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
BOTH THE RAP AND NAM INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING AT KRST BY 09.17Z. THIS IS DUE TO
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINING INTACT AND NOT ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY. MEANWHILE THE GFS DOES DEVELOP SOME GUSTS
INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. SINCE THE NAM AND RAP USUALLY HAVE
PROBLEMS WITH NOT ERODING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS IN THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OPTED TO GO MORE TOWARDS THE GFS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
506 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS JUST WEST OF THE AREA AS OF 08Z. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY DAYBREAK...FOLLOWED BY DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW
THAT ALONG WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO 55-60
ACROSS NYC METRO AND MOST OF LONG ISLAND...AND 50-55 TO THE
NORTH...SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN A 00Z GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE
BLEND. THE 06Z RAP SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS COULD EVEN REACH THE LOWER
60S INVOF NYC WITH ENOUGH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...BUT HAVE DOUBTS AS
TO WHETHER IT WILL GET THIS WARM AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL LOWER/THICKEN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH/WEST OF NYC...
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE OH VALLEY. OVERRUNNING
LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD ALSO MOVE INTO AREAS MAINLY NORTH/WEST OF NYC
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED WARMER TONIGHT...WITH LOWS 40-45
INVOF NYC AND 35-40 ELSEWHERE...AND WITH ELEVATED WARM NOSE
MOVING IN PRECIP SHOULD START OFF AS RAIN THROUGHOUT.
GFS/ECMWF RELATIVELY CLOSE ON DETAILS WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE
INTENSIFYING LOW MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES NW OF NYC
BY WED EVENING. THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON WED SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK DURING THE DAYTIME IN THE COOL SECTOR. AS THE SUB-980 MB
SFC LOW TRACKS OVER THE AREA JUST NW OF NYC AND THE COAST LATE WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA COULD GET INTO THE
WARM SECTOR...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 50S MAINLY ACROSS NYC
METRO...NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE
WILL BE MINIMAL. A LINE OF FORCED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IS LIKELY
ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NJ AND NYC METRO WHERE SFC INSTABILITY
LIKELY TO BE SFC-BASED AS BOTH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE INTENSE LOW WED NIGHT AS
IT DEPARTS TO THE GULF OF MAINE...WITH LOWS 20-25 AND POSSIBLY
FALLING TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY
LOW TRACK...HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO THE NORTH...SO
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED LATE WED NIGHT AS PRECIP
CHANGES OVER TO LIGHT SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
THU AND THU NIGHT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD...WITH TEMPS NOT
RISING MUCH IF AT ALL...REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 20S AT
BEST. NW WINDS COULD REACH ADVY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS INLAND...TEENS MOST ELSEWHERE...AND LOWER 20S IN NYC.
SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON RECORD COLD.
THIS VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS DEEP LAYER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS WITH SW RETURN FLOW AND WAA ON FRI.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA LATE FRI INTO SAT WILL
DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MIDDAY SAT. SOME QUESTION
ON THE EXTENT OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS VERY DRY AIR INITIALLY IN
PLACE WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME. BETTER FORCING ALSO LOOKS TO BE TO
THE NORTH...SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POP.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
W-SW WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND A WEAK TROF/COLD
FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FLOW WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 310
FROM MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON AT 7 TO 10 KT...BEFORE BACKING A
BIT BY LATE AFT TO THE W. RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS EVE
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z FOR THE 30H TAFS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 17 KT FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST TO AROUND 17 KT FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE HYRID SEABREEZE
WITH WINDS BACKING AROUND TO 230-250 LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST TO AROUND 17 KT FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST TO AROUND 15 KT FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST TO AROUND 15 KT FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST TO AROUND 15 KT FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN RA. ESE-SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT GUSTING
UP TO AROUND 20 KT LATE WED AFTN-EVE THEN W-NW WINDS AROUND 20 KT
GUSTING UP TO 35 KT LATER WED NIGHT.
.THU...IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY. NW G30-40KT.
.FRI...VFR.
.SAT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS STARTING TO BACK SW AND GUST OVER 20 KT AT 44017. SHOULD SEE
MINIMAL SCA CONDS FROM THERE ON EAST THIS MORNING...SO SCA
REMAINS IN EFFECT ONLY ON THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ON WED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. SCA CRITERIA
ARE LIKELY TO BE REACHED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WATCH
CONSIDERING THE HIGH AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTHENING WINDS
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. GALES THEN
LOOK TO END THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS AND SEAS STILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...WITH 5 FT SEAS NOT DIMINISHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLY RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOW TRACK AND THEREFORE ASSOCIATED QPF WITH THE MID WEEK STORM
HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD...SO ONLY EXPECT BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH FOR SOUTHERN CT...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE
NJ. LOWER QPF OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH EXPECTED FOR NYC METRO AND LONG
ISLAND. LOCAL AMTS OF ABOUT 1/2 INCH HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE
IN TSTMS. THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PICCA
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/PICCA
LONG TERM...GOODMAN/PICCA/SEARS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...GOODMAN/PICCA/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
EQUIPMENT...//
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
450 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS JUST WEST OF THE AREA AS OF 08Z. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY DAYBREAK...FOLLOWED BY DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW
THAT ALONG WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO 55-60
ACROSS NYC METRO AND MOST OF LONG ISLAND...AND 50-55 TO THE
NORTH...SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN A 00Z GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE
BLEND. THE 06Z RAP SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS COULD EVEN REACH THE LOWER
60S INVOF NYC WITH ENOUGH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...BUT HAVE DOUBTS AS
TO WHETHER IT WILL GET THIS WARM AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL LOWER/THICKEN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH/WEST OF NYC...
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE OH VALLEY. OVERRUNNING
LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD ALSO MOVE INTO AREAS MAINLY NORTH/WEST OF NYC
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED WARMER TONIGHT...WITH LOWS 40-45
INVOF NYC AND 35-40 ELSEWHERE...AND WITH ELEVATED WARM NOSE
MOVING IN PRECIP SHOULD START OFF AS RAIN THROUGHOUT.
GFS/ECMWF RELATIVELY CLOSE ON DETAILS WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE
INTENSIFYING LOW MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES NW OF NYC
BY WED EVENING. THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON WED SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK DURING THE DAYTIME IN THE COOL SECTOR. AS THE SUB-980 MB
SFC LOW TRACKS OVER THE AREA JUST NW OF NYC AND THE COAST LATE WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA COULD GET INTO THE
WARM SECTOR...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 50S MAINLY ACROSS NYC
METRO...NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE
WILL BE MINIMAL. A LINE OF FORCED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IS LIKELY
ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NJ AND NYC METRO WHERE SFC INSTABILITY
LIKELY TO BE SFC-BASED AS BOTH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE INTENSE LOW WED NIGHT AS
IT DEPARTS TO THE GULF OF MAINE...WITH LOWS 20-25 AND POSSIBLY
FALLING TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY
LOW TRACK...HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO THE NORTH...SO
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED LATE WED NIGHT AS PRECIP
CHANGES OVER TO LIGHT SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
THU AND THU NIGHT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD...WITH TEMPS NOT
RISING MUCH IF AT ALL...REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 20S AT
BEST. NW WINDS COULD REACH ADVY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS INLAND...TEENS MOST ELSEWHERE...AND LOWER 20S IN NYC.
SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON RECORD COLD.
THIS VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS DEEP LAYER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS WITH SW RETURN FLOW AND WAA ON FRI.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA LATE FRI INTO SAT WILL
DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MIDDAY SAT. SOME QUESTION
ON THE EXTENT OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS VERY DRY AIR INITIALLY IN
PLACE WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME. BETTER FORCING ALSO LOOKS TO BE TO
THE NORTH...SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POP.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...CLEARING THE EASTERNMOST TERMINAL KGON BY 09Z. S-SW WINDS
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FLOW WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND 310 FROM MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON AT 7 TO 10
KT...BEFORE BACKING A BIT BY LATE AFT TO THE W. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
UP TO 15 KT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFT
HOURS. RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUE EVE WITH A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TUE TIME FRAME FOR
THE 30H TAFS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR LIKELY IN RA. ESE-SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT
GUSTING UP TO AROUND 20 KT LATE WED AFTN-EVE THEN W-NW WINDS
AROUND 20 KT GUSTING UP TO 35 KT LATER WED NIGHT.
.THU...IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY. NW G30-40KT.
.FRI...VFR.
.SAT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS STARTING TO BACK SW AND GUST OVER 20 KT AT 44017. SHOULD SEE
MINIMAL SCA CONDS FROM THERE ON EAST THIS MORNING...SO SCA
REMAINS IN EFFECT ONLY ON THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ON WED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. SCA CRITERIA
ARE LIKELY TO BE REACHED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WATCH
CONSIDERING THE HIGH AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTHENING WINDS
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. GALES THEN
LOOK TO END THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS AND SEAS STILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...WITH 5 FT SEAS NOT DIMINISHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLY RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOW TRACK AND THEREFORE ASSOCIATED QPF WITH THE MID WEEK STORM
HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD...SO ONLY EXPECT BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH FOR SOUTHERN CT...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE
NJ. LOWER QPF OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH EXPECTED FOR NYC METRO AND LONG
ISLAND. LOCAL AMTS OF ABOUT 1/2 INCH HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE
IN TSTMS. THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE TIED OR BROKEN AT MOST LOCAL
CLIMATE SITES THU AND THU NIGHT...
TEMPS FOR THU MAR 13...
RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM FCST
NEWARK.........32 IN 1980 32
BRIDGEPORT.....33 IN 1980 28
CENTRAL PARK...27 IN 1896 30
LAGUARDIA......33 IN 1980 31
KENNEDY........33 IN 1980 30
ISLIP..........34 IN 1989 28
TEMPS FOR FRI MAR 14...
RECORD LOW
MINIMUM FCST
NEWARK.........17 IN 1980 17
BRIDGEPORT.....16 IN 1980 13
CENTRAL PARK... 8 IN 1896 19
LAGUARDIA......18 IN 1980 22
KENNEDY........19 IN 1980 18
ISLIP..........17 IN 1989 13
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PICCA
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/PICCA
LONG TERM...GOODMAN/PICCA/SEARS
AVIATION...JMC/DW
MARINE...GOODMAN/PICCA/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
CLIMATE...PICCA
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
1028 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014
.UPDATE...SNOW IS TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO CLEAR THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING. LAST MINUTE CHANGES WILL INCLUDE EXTENDING
THE CURRENT WARNING OUT UNTIL 3 AM MDT AND CANCELLING THE FLOOD
WATCH SINCE EVERYTHING HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW. GROUND MAY BE
WARM YET AND STREAMS AS WELL. GAGES SHOW SOME INCREASE ON FALLS
RIVER NEAR CHESTER BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT MORE
THAN THAT TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME SNOW ON
HIGHWAY 30 NEAR SODA SPRINGS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. RS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014/
UPDATE...THE BACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE COLLING WITH SNOW LEVEL JUST
BEGINNING TO DROP TO AROUND 7700 TO 7900 FEET ELEVATION.
HOWEVER...SNOW ACCUMULATION THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE
LIMITED TO AN INCH OR SO. THEREFORE THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FLOOD WATCH IN THE
KETCHUM AND HAILEY AREA WAS ALSO ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. LIMITED WATER
RISES WERE OBSERVED ON SMALL STREAMS...ESPECIALLY THE EAST FORK OF
THE BIG WOOD RIVER...BUT THIS WAS LESS THE WATER LEVELS OBSERVED A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO AND NO FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED. REMOTE GAGES
REPORT WATER LEVELS ARE LEVELING OFF. RS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 115 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG STORM CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WEST. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
IDAHO...IT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO DIG MORE SOUTH AND SETTLE OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH AND NEVADA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA...AND FALL
TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AREAWIDE BY MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALSO ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN
THIS EVENING. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING LOCALIZED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
60MPH ACROSS THE PLAIN...BUT MOST GUSTS WILL NOT EXCEED 55MPH. THE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN UNTIL 9PM.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THAT
UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND PERHAPS EXTEND IT INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS
ESPECIALLY AS THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...THE PATTERN BECOMES RATHER COMPLEX THIS EVENING.
IN TERMS OF THE MOUNTAINS...WE WILL SEE TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE. THE FIRST IS ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS
AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD BEAR LAKE. THE OTHER IS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM CHALLIS TO GALENA SUMMIT. THE BIGGER
AMOUNTS OVERALL WILL FALL OVER THE EAST. THE THIRD AREA IS A
COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE. BY MORNING...AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE WILL LIE ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
CRATERS TO POCATELLO LINE. UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE THIS MOISTURE BAND
ACROSS THE BENCHES AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS FROM NEAR ST. ANTHONY TO
AROUND POCATELLO. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER AROUND 4500-5000FT SO
THESE AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST MIX DOWN LOW AND ALL SNOW ABOVE THE
BENCHES. IN TERMS OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...THE
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE 0.10-0.20 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST AND 0.20-0.50
INCHES IN THE EAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A TRACE TO 3 INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD IT APPEARS. WE MAY SEE A
DUSTING ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-15 BUT IT WILL
NOT STICK AROUND LONG. IN TERMS OF WINTER AND FLOOD HEADLINES...WE
WILL LET ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS RIDE AND WILL LET THE EVENING
SHIFT DECIDE IF ANYTHING NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WE WILL SEE ANY RAIN OR SNOW CONFINED TO
AROUND BEAR LAKE AND DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
IDAHO. WE WILL SEE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER TOMORROW AS WELL.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY DRY. WITH THE DRY AREA
MOVING IN...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A VERY CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA AND A DECENT WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER VALLEYS AND ISLAND PARK...WITH 10S
AND 20S ELSEWHERE. GUIDANCE ACTUALLY POINTS TO EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES BUT FOR NOW TRENDED ONLY PARTIALLY THAT DIRECTION.
HIGHS BOUNCE BACK INTO 40S/LOWS 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOW/MID 30S
AT RIDGETOP. KEYES
LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MON NIGHT. LONGWAVE PATTERN
INDICATES A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF IDAHO THAT SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS TO THE COAST STARTING SAT NIGHT. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS THAT MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE...THE MOST LIKELY ONE TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA IS A FRI
NIGHT/SAT SHORTWAVE. ZERO TO LITTLE EFFECT IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
POCATELLO...AND ONLY LITTLE EFFECT NORTH OF THIS. THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM IS HOW WARM IT WILL GET...WITH THE ECMWF BEING COLDER AND
CLOUDIER. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH GETS LARGE BEYOND THE
FRI NIGHT TROUGH. NO REAL SIGNIFICANT WIND WITH TEMPS GENERALLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MESSICK
AVIATION...WIND HAVING A HARD TIME DEVELOPING...AND SUN VALLEY JUST
BELOW FIELD MINIMUMS. LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON. FOR ALL AIRDROMES. LOWEST CIGS
EXPECTED ARE MARGINAL VFR. HRRR GUIDANCE OF LATE NOW SUGGESTS
STRONG WINDS SHORTLY AFTER 11/01Z IN THE KPIH AREA. SHOULDN`T BE MUCH
OF A PROBLEM SINCE THEY ARE ALIGNED WITH THE RUNWAY. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MESSICK
HYDROLOGY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL BELOW 6500 FEET COMBINED
WITH MELTING SNOW WILL CREATE AN INCREASED THREAT OF FLOODING FOR
SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN THE BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER
REGION AND THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE
AREAS INCLUDE THE CITIES OF KETCHUM...HAILEY... ASHTON AND ST
ANTHONY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME. WYATT
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT BELOW 6500 FEET FOR THE
IDZ019.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT ABOVE 7000 FEET
FOR THE IDZ019.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
344 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2014
...Updated synopsis and short term sections...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
Water vapor loop as of 08Z showed an impressive shortwave trough
continuing to dig southeastward into Utah. RAP analysis had a 400mb
potential vorticity (PV) anomaly extending from the base of the
trough near Great Salt Lake northeastward into eastern
Washington...suggesting a little more digging before the wave
translates eastward. Warmest temperatures in the lower troposphere
(850mb) were found across the High Plains of western Kansas into
West Texas (+17C at both North Platte and Dodge City; +20C at
Amarillo). The 08Z surface analysis showed a deepening surface low
centered near the western Nebraska-Kansas state border. Surface
winds continued to respond with overnight winds in the 10 to 13 knot
range, helping keep temperatures from dropping much. It was still in
the lower to mid 40s across much of the southwest and west central
Kansas region. Surface cold frontogenesis was noted across
northeastern Wyoming into the northern Nebraska Panhandle.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
Moderate to high impact wind event this afternoon/evening is the
main forecast challenge and how to handle this event with headlines
(advisory vs. warning). Now that the forecast wind event is within
higher resolution short-term models (RAP13, for instance) temporal
range, we are gaining a bit higher confidence in the wind forecast.
As the surface low moves southeast into central Kansas, it will
continue to deepen down to about 995mb while surface
anticyclogenesis will ramp up across the northern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains. This will induce a very tight pressure
gradient across western Kansas by midday...and especially this
afternoon.
The combined effect of the pressure gradient and the
isallobaric wind due to pressure change, will likely lead to
sustained winds around 40 mph for areas along and west of Highway
283 corridor...especially in the 22-01Z time frame. Forecast
soundings off the NAM12 and RAP13 both show around 35 knots just off
the surface around 900mb at Dodge City at 21Z with mixing up to
800-825mb. The winds around 800-850mb will pick up quite a bit as
the north wind low level jet strengthens west of the low at this
level. For Dodge City, the 00Z forecast soundings support a high
wind event (40mph sustained and/or 58mph gusts) with 50 knots shown
by both the NAM12 and RAP13 at the top of the mixed layer (which by
that point will be due to vigorous cold advection). Based on this
information, we will upgrade to a High Wind Warning for US283
corridor (Ness City down to Englewood) west to the Colorado border.
Per collaboration with surrounding offices, we will also include
areas of blowing dust where the High Wind Warning will be in effect
and hit it pretty hard in the NPW product. As far as precipitation
goes, the only area expected to see any measurable precipitation
will be the I-70 corridor, and will carry around 50 POPs up there. A
few tenths of an inch of wet snow may accumulate during the 23-02Z
time frame in particular.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave breaking
away from a larger scale trough Wednesday as it digs southeast
across the Rockies, and developing into a closed off upper level
low across the Intermountain West. Meanwhile, a general westerly
flow aloft will prevail across the Western High Plains through the
end of the week. This will result in dry conditions persisting
across western Kansas through Thursday night with insufficient
low/mid level moisture present. The closed off upper level low in
the Desert Southwest is then expected to open up and push eastward
into the South Plains early Friday bringing marginal precip
chances to the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles based on the
projected track of the shortwave. Cannot rule out a slight chance
for light rain across extreme southern portions of southwest and
south central Kansas Friday as the upper level system skirts
across our southern fringe.
Much cooler temperatures are likely Wednesday as arctic air spills
southward into western Kansas in wake of a departing cold front. The
NAM/GFS/ECMWF show H85 temperatures dropping well below 0C across
central and western Kansas initially Tuesday night. A slight
rebound to around 0C across central Kansas to near 5C along the
Colorado border is expected Wednesday afternoon due to some
northwesterly downsloping developing. Expect highs up into the
upper 40s(F) to possibly the lower to mid 50s(F) under decreasing
cloud cover. A quick bounce back to warmer temperatures will occur
Thursday as the arctic high dips further south across Texas while
lee side troughing redevelops across eastern Colorado. This will
quickly return a southwesterly downslope flow to western Kansas
pushing H85 temperatures up into the lower to mid Teens(C) across
central and western Kansas. Highs will easily reach the 60s(F)
Thursday afternoon with near 70F not out of the question in some
locations. Another cold front is projected to push through western
Kansas early Friday once again dropping temperatures across the
area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
South to southwest winds overnight will gradually veer around to the
west-northwest by mid-morning. Winds will increase to around 20 to
25 knots sustained by midday and continue to ramp up to 28 to 32
knots sustained late afternoon from the north-northwest as a strong
cold front moves in. A few wind gusts will be around 45 knots or
higher between 21z Tuesday and 03z Wednesday with some MVFR ceilings
also moving in during this time. Up at HYS, light snow will likely
bring the flight category down to IFR for a few hours during the
early to mid evening hours. Snow accumulations are expected to be
minimal at less than an inch.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 27 51 26 / 20 20 0 0
GCK 56 25 50 24 / 20 20 0 0
EHA 63 27 48 28 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 64 26 50 25 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 55 27 50 24 / 40 50 0 0
P28 62 30 52 28 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 1 PM CDT /Noon MDT/ this afternoon to 11
PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening FOR KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-
084>088.
WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM CDT this evening
FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-066-079>081-089-090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
513 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED MAINLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE NE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NRN MANITOBA ON THE LEADING EDGE OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE TO THE SE AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO WRN CANADA.
ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER SASK IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DIVE TOWARD THE UPPER
MS VALLEY AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
TRAILING LOW PRES OVER QUEBEC EXTENDED THROUGH NRN ONTARIO INTO SRN
MANITOBA. TO THE SOUTH...MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILED WITH READINGS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FROM NRN MN AND NRN WI
THROUGH UPPER MI. EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO LIMITED
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND
UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING BRINGING AN INITIAL INFLUX OF COLDER
AIR. SO...MAX DAYTIME READINGS ARE EXPECTED EARLY WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES IN AND 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -13C BY
00Z/WED...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
OVER THE NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TONIGHT...AS THE SASK SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE AREA MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH 925 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND -21C AND INCREASING WINDS VEERING FROM THE FROM THE NNW TO
NE. A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR SOME LES FOR LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED.
THE POSITION OF THE DGZ WILL ALSO BE MOST FAVORABLE FROM 06Z-12Z/WED.
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MON SHOWED ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE ICE COVER FOR
AT LEAST SOME HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE LAKE TO SUPPORT LES. SINCE
THE ICE WILL STILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE LES POTENTIAL...EXPECT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...GREATEST OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE NE WINDS WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW AT IWD...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES/AMOUNTS FARTHER
TO THE WEST...OR FOR THE KEWEENAW WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV WILL BE MINIMAL.
OTHERWISE...THE MUCH COLDER AIR WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO AND WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -20 LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE PRODUCING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
EXPECT THOSE TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE CREATED
SOME GAPS IN THE ICE NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...NOT THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH ASSISTANCE
TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EVEN THOUGH 900MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
-22C. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 3-4KFT...WOULDN/T EXPECT
THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE TOO STRONG AND ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE CLOUD BEING ABOVE THE DGZ. DID SLOWLY
DIMINISH THE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE
DEPTH BECOMES SHALLOW AND WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. WITH
THE MODELS SHOWING THE MOISTURE REMAINING BELOW THE STRENGTHENING
INVERSION FROM THE HIGH MOVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WONDERING IF CLOUDS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL). THE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.
STILL LOOKS TO BE A VERY COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLDEST
VALUES OF -10F TO -18F OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AND THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO OVER THE WEST HALF. WOULD EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES
TO WARM OVER THE WEST TOWARDS MORNING AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND
MID CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN UNDER WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. GEM/ECMWF/NAM CONSISTENT ON SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN U.P. WITH THIS WAA ON THURSDAY MORNING. SINCE
THERE HAVE BEEN INDICATIONS OF THIS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL TREND VALUES UP TO CHANCES AND THEN DIMINISH THEM AS
THEY HEAD EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
EARLIER RUNS WERE INDICATING A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN THE ICE CRYSTAL AREA TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. AT THIS POINT...MIGHT
SEE UP TO A HALF INCH TOWARDS IRONWOOD AND THEN DIMINISHING AMOUNTS
HEADING EAST.
BEHIND THIS PRECIPITATION...FOCUS TURNS TO THE LOW CENTERED NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG AT 18Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MODELS STILL DIFFERING ON THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS NOW
WELL OVER THE PACIFIC...WHICH IN-TURN CONTROLS THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FARTHEST NORTH (ALONG WITH RECENT RUNS
OF THE UKMET) AND RUNNING THE LOW ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE
GEM HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN THE TWO OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. ALL
IN ALL...THESE DIFFERENCES WON/T HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN AFFECT ON THE
LAND CWA PRECIPITATION...SINCE THE WAA PRECIP WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST
LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE
LOOKING FOR ANOTHER REALLY WARM DAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AREA WILL SEE
COLDER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE DAY. THUS...EXPECT THE WARMEST
TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO BE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.
WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE ARE ALSO
DIFFERENCES IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
NORTHERLY WINDS. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST ON
FRIDAY BEFORE THIS ARRIVES...WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD SURGE AND WITH SOME GAPS STARTING TO SHOW
IN THE ICE NEAR THE APOSTLE ISLANDS...THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DIFFICULT TO GO
WITH MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS WITH THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER
AND POTENTIAL CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR IDEA AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THAT PUTS CHANCES OVER THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST AREAS IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION TO TRADITIONAL NORTHWEST-NORTHERLY WIND AREAS FOR
SATURDAY. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN AND HAVE
DIMINISHED POPS HEADING INTO SUNDAY (EVENTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS REMAIN
AROUND -17C). WITH THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT...SHOULD BE 10-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES
CLEAR OUT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB ZERO
LOWS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND HAVE TRENDED VALUES DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE CWA. SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SEEMS LIKE A
GOOD START AT THIS POINT...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
COLD SPOTS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST ON MONDAY...BUT IT/S INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN AND KEEP THE AREA
DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
WITH LLVL DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SOME HI CLDS/STEADY WINDS LIMITING
THE DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE AT ALL
3 TAFS SITES THRU SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT WL PASS THRU UPR MI ON TUE
MRNG. THE RETURN OF COLDER AND MOISTER LLVL AIR AIDED BY SOME
DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN AN MVFR SC DECK AT
ALL 3 LOCATIONS BY TUE AFTN. THE APRCH OF A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT THIS EVNG MAY BRING SOME SHSN TO THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY AT IWD WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH NW TO N WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED INTO WED NIGHT AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE NRN LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20
KNOTS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM JUST TO THE NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGS WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
346 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL FALL WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HRS OF THIS DISCUSSION AS AN IMPRESSIVE FRONTGENETICALLY
DRIVEN BAND OF PRECIP BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO COOL WITH THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...AND THUS THEIR PTYPE ALGORITHMS ARE LIKELY
OVERDOING THE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW TREMENDOUS LIFT ALONG THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONT AS INFERRED FROM
THE SHARP WIND SHIFT WITHIN THE H850-700 LAYER. ASIDE FROM THE
LOWEST FEW HUNDRED METERS THE ENTIRE SOUNDING IS BELOW FREEZING...SO
ANTICIPATING THAT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIX
AROUND 6-7AM...AND THEN QUICKLY OVER TO HEAVY WET SNOW AROUND MID
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.
SNOW RATIOS WILL BE IN THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS...BUT QPF SHOULD EASILY
MANAGE AROUND 0.20 TO 0.30 YIELDING SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES
UNDER THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW. AT THIS POINT THE RAP 11.07 PLACES
THIS HEAVY BAND FROM CANBY MN EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
METRO...AND THEREFORE ALL THE HIRES MODELS THAT USE THE RAP FOR
THEIR INITIAL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS ARE SUBCONSCIOUSLY DRAWN TO THIS
CONCLUSION. HOWEVER...THE H850-700MB FGEN...WHICH AS OF EARLY THIS
MORNING MATCHES UP NICELY WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP...SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
FROM CANBY TO MANKATO AND OWATONNA. BASED ON THAT DIAGNOSTIC
TOOL...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO FALL TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
CURRENT MODEL GENERATED QPF FIELD. AT THIS POINT NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT EXPECT HEAVY WET SNOW
WITH 1/2 TO 1/4 MI VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
LOOKING AHEAD...COLD AIR WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS
IT STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR STORM OVER NEW ENGLAND. CLOSER TO HOME
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN THE NEXT SHOT OF LEE-SIDE WARM AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S ONCE AGAIN...WITH
50S IN WESTERN MN. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF
THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE ST CROIX RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS COLD AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD AND
LASTS INTO NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL ENTER WEST CENTRAL MN NEAR THE
START OF THE TAFS AND WORK ESE INTO THE TWIN CITIES BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND INTO KEAU AROUND DAYBREAK. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
KAXN...KSTC AND KRNH ARE GOING TO BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. KMSP AND KEAU ARE A LITTLE MORE IN LINE TO
RECEIVE A FEW HOURS OF RAIN AND SNOW. KRWF REMAINS THE SITE FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SINKS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MVFR IN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH MVFR OR LOWER VSBY. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SE OF THE TAF SITES EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS FORECAST BACK TO VFR. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOMING N TO NW AT 12-15 KNOTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING.
KMSP...LIGHT RAIN STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE 09Z-10Z PERIOD
AND THEN MIX WITH SNOW AROUND 12Z WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
DURING THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN AN
INCH. IMPROVED CEILINGS TO VFR IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. N WIND 8 KTS BCMG W.
THU...VFR. SW WIND 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. W 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
339 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING ACROSS NERN NEB AROUND 18Z TODAY. THIS
FGEN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY STRONG BAND OF WET SNOW WITH
HOURLY LIQUID RATES OF UP TO 0.10 INCHES. THE NAM RADAR PRODUCT
SHOWS THIS BAND SETTING UP FROM AROUND CHAMBERS TO BROKEN BOW AT
21Z WHICH MOVES QUICKLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z. THE NAM HAS
BEEN WOBBLING SOMEWHAT BUT THE CONCEPT OF FOLDED THETA E AND DEEP
LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE CONTINUES. THE 05Z RAP MODEL
SETS IT UP FROM ONEILL TO SUTHERLAND. THE 00Z ECM FOLLOWS THE NAM
WHICH MATCHES THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
IN GENERAL...THE MODELS ARE CLUSTERING AROUND 0.20 INCHES OF LIQUID
FOR THIS EVENT ALONG HIGHWAY 83 BUT THEN SPREAD OUT TO THE EAST AS
SOME SIGNAL A WETTER EVENT AND OTHERS DRIER. THE MEDIAN QPF IN
CUSTER COUNTY LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.30 INCHES.
GIVEN THE STRONG LIFT DEVELOPING...IT IS EXPECTED THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING LASTING 1 OR 2 HOURS AT
THE MOST. THIS IS ABOUT A 6 HOUR PCPN EVENT WHICH EXITS THE FCST
AREA BY AROUND 00Z. THERE IS A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN BEFORE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW IN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS. H700MB TEMPERATURES COOL
VERY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MARKING THE ONSET OF PCPN AND
DEEP LIFT WILL AID THE DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESS.
AN 8 TO 1 SNOW WATER RATIO WAS USED UP NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WHICH WAS REDUCED TO 5 TO 1 DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND THEN WARM UP
ONCE THE SNOW LETS UP OR ENDS. THIS PRODUCED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WET
SNOW.
THERE IS NO REASON TO UNDER ESTIMATE A SPRING STORM DURING THE 2ND
WEEK OF MARCH AND THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG NORTH WINDS AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALL MODELS SHOW 500M AGL WINDS INCREASING TO OVER
30 KT WHICH TRANSLATES TO 30 MPH AT THE SFC. THE NAM...GFS
GUIDANCE...HRRR AND RAP MODELS ALL SHOW GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH
DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTL NEB NORTH OF THE SFC LOW LOCATED ACROSS KS
BY NOON TODAY. H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 45 TO 55 KT. THE WIND
FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT AND DETERMINISTIC
SOLNS WHICH FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE ROAD. THE GFS AND THE ECM SPREAD
THESE STRONGER WINDS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA TONIGHT. THIS COULD PRODUCE SNOW FLURRIES OR PERHAPS ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND REMAIN MOIST SUPPORTING THIS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
THE SYSTEM BRINGING THE SNOW AND WIND TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND BE PAST THE LOCAL AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL PUT NEBRASKA UNDER SUBSIDENT AIR WEDNESDAY AND WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTING IN EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY...SIGNALS ARE COMING
TOGETHER FOR A BREEZY DAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECONDARY PV MAX
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY...TO HELP
ENHANCE WINDS ALOFT AND WITH STEEP SURFACE TO 700MB LAPSE RATES
CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON BREEZY CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MIXED
LAYER BETWEEN 700MB AND 800MB AND LOOKING AT MAXIMUM WINDS IN THAT
LAYER UP TO 35KTS SO DECIDED TO INCREASE WINDS DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DON/T CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY SO
LOOKING AT AN ADIABATIC PROFILE...HIGHS WOULD BE IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY A BIT COOL FOR
TEMPERATURES AND WITH SUNNY SKIES THINK MOST AREAS WILL WARM A BIT
MORE THAN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE INDICATING.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS NO SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS ARE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL STAY FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THURSDAY
AS IT WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW AMPLIFIED THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE...WHICH
IMPACTS HOW STRONG THE SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME AND THEN HOW MUCH
WARM AIR CAN BE PULLED NORTHWARD. TOOK A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S AND 60S. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A BIT STRONGER...TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED FOR THURSDAY.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS NEBRASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ON
WHERE THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS...IT DOES APPEAR
FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT IT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH STAYING NEAR THE LOW
CENTER...FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR WOULD NEED A MOISTURE SOURCE
FROM THE SOUTH TO GET THIS TO HAPPEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY PROHIBIT MUCH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. ONE THING THAT
DOES LOOK POSSIBLE IS STRONG WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE AREA
STAYING IN A LOCATION WITH DRY AIR...WHEN THE AIRMASS BECOMES
SUBSIDENT BEHIND THE FRONT...DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE PROMOTED.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS NIGHT...WHICH ISN/T AS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER
WINDS...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS TIME-FRAME IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CONCERNING WINDS.
THE MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEGINNING SATURDAY AS THEY SEEM
TO BE HAVING PROBLEMS HANDLING THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW. ONE THING
THEY DO ALL AGREE ON IS THAT STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD
IN...SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THEY ALSO ARE INDICATING THE PATTERN
ALOFT BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED AND DIG A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH ALONG
THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. CONTINUE TO
HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH BOTH
RAIN AND SNOW LOOKING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN ON SATURDAY...THEN SWITCHING TO RAIN/SNOW
AND SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK TO RAIN ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY NOT
BE REAL LIKELY...AS THERE WON/T BE THAT GREAT AMOUNT OF TIME WITH
RAIN AND SNOW...BUT WITH CONCERN OVER TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION...DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE YET TO NAIL DOWN A
PARTICULAR PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS INTERESTING...WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PASS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE PRETTY STRONG...WHICH COULD LEAD TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY...THEN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...AND STRONG WINDS TUESDAY. DIDN/T GO TOO WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE ON FORECASTING
THE HIGHS THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW AT THIS TIME IS QUITE
LOW...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
A BANDED AREA OF IFR/LIFR IN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTH TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY. THIS BAND OF IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTN.
SCATTERED MVFR IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THE
DISTURBANCE AND PRODUCE MVFR CIGS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT
/7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ025>029-036>038-057>059-069>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1247 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
THERE IS NO REASON TO UNDER ESTIMATE A SPRING STORM DURING THE 2ND
WEEK OF MARCH AND THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG NORTH WINDS AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALL MODELS SHOW 500M AGL WINDS INCREASING TO OVER
30 KT WHICH TRANSLATES TO 30 MPH AT THE SFC. THE NAM...GFS
GUIDANCE...HRRR AND RAP MODELS ALL SHOW GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH
DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTL NEB NORTH OF THE SFC LOW LOCATED ACROSS KS
BY NOON TODAY. H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 45 TO 55 KT. THE WIND
FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT AND DETERMINISTIC
SOLNS WHICH FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE ROAD. THE GFS SPREADS THESE STRONGER
WINDS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE TODAY FOR PARTS OF SWRN AND SCNTL NEB.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR SCNTL AND SWRN NEB.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
THE 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS ARE GETTING MORE AGRESSIVE WITH
THE FGEN DROPPING INTO NCNTL NEB EARLY TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FARTHER
WEST FOCUSING ACROSS NWRN NEB WHILE THE NAM FAVORS PINE RIDGE AND
THE WRN SANDHILLS. THE NAM ACTUALLY PRODUCES OVER 1/2 INCH OF
QPF IN THAT REGION AS FOLDED THETA E DEVELOPS ALONG WITH DEEP
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...-12C TO -18C. THE RAIN CHANGES
QUICKLY TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS IN THIS ZONE OF DEEP LIFT.
A NEW FORECAST IS OUT WHICH AFFECTS THE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 WEST OF THEDFORD. THE FORECAST ADDS WEIGHT TO
THE GFS AND NAM QPF FORECAST BUT STILL BLENDS THE SREF AND THE DRIER
ECM AND GEM RUNS INTO THE FORECAST FOR 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS IS TWO FOLD...FIRST BEING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.
THE SECOND IS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE PASSING
FRONT. MILD LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE ATOP THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO ADVECT H85
TEMPS OF GREATER THAN 15C ACROSS THE REGION AND EFFECTIVELY MIX THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE 0C FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE LEADING EDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
15Z AT THE LATEST. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SHORT
PERIOD OF FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WHEN SATURATION IS
PRESENT IN THE DGZ. ALSO SHOWN IS A PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT. RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE MIDLEVEL FORCING SLIDES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. THE BAND IS SHOWN TO FALL APART ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THOUGH. FRONTOLYSIS IS SHOWN TO
OCCUR AS THE TROUGH BECOMES LESS DEFINED AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS
WEAKEN. ALSO PROBLEMATIC TO THE FORECAST IS THE EXPECTED TIMING OF
THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR SIGNIFICANTLY
LAGS THE FRONT...AND WITH THE RECENT WARM SPELL...SNOW THAT DOES
FALL MAY STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE. ATTM...THE FORECAST FAVORS UP TO
AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT
ACROSS MUCH THE CENTRAL CWA AND POINTS SOUTH...A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW IS LIKELY...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. CAA AND DRYING
RAPIDLY TAKE HOLD LATE AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW
SUIT...ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. POSSIBLY OF GREATER
CONCERN IS THE PROJECTED WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ATTM...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS AT OR CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR KBBW...KLBF...AND KIML. DEBATED SERIOUSLY WHETHER OR NOT TO
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN...SOUTHWEST AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FROPA AND THE APPROACH OF A PV
MAX...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF AND WAIT FOR THE LATEST GUIDANCE
THIS EVENING AS CONFIDENCE WAS NOT YET 100 PERCENT DO TO THE MORNING
TIMING OF THE FRONT.
THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...WITH AN ATYPICAL
DIURNAL CURVE. HIGHS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE REACHED
EARLY IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
AS THE COLD AIRMASS PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY...RETURN
FLOW FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE SAME TIME...FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL BRING DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT OF THIS...THERE WILL BE
PRETTY DECENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.35-0.45 INCH...THOUGH IT IS
CONCENTRATED IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAYERS. A SURFACE FRONT THEN
PUNCHES THROUGH NEBRASKA AND STALLS ACROSS KANSAS. THE FRONT THEN
LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THE STRONGEST UPWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHERN
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
MUCH WARMER THAN THEY WILL BE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
A BANDED AREA OF IFR/LIFR IN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTH TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY. THIS BAND OF IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTN.
SCATTERED MVFR IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THE
DISTURBANCE AND PRODUCE MVFR CIGS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT
/7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ025>029-036>038-057>059-069>071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
425 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY AS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. AS OF 4 AM THIS BAND IS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
14. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH A STRONG AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
DECENT INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONT...THUS NOT SURPRISED BY THE HIGH
REFLECTIVITY CURRENTLY ON RADAR. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE
WARM...AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPE IS CURRENTLY RAIN. THIS FIRST
AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS SOUTH THIS MORNING...BUT ALSO BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. THIS OCCURS AS THE MAIN WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH THE BEST QG FORCING SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THUS
MAKES SENSE THAT WE SEE FRONTOGENESIS INTENSIFY AGAIN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AS MODELS SHOW. SO EXPECT WE SEE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
BAND ALONG HIGHWAY 14 SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH...THEN INTENSIFY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
AS THE FRONT STRENGTHENS AND INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER WAVE. PRETTY
LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH THE BAND WEAKENS THIS MORNING...AND
HOW QUICKLY IT INTENSIFIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IMPORTANT NOT
ONLY FOR QPF...BUT ALSO PRECIPITATION TYPE.
IF PRECIPITATION STAYS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...IT WILL LIKELY STAY
MAINLY RAIN. ONLY EXPECTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DUE TO DYNAMIC
COOLING IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. SO IF THIS HEAVIER BAND
WEAKENS ENOUGH...OUR SNOW FORECAST COULD BE IN TROUBLE. THE LATEST
06Z NAM AND HRRR AND RAP DO SHOW THIS MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. EVEN AS THE BAND INTENSIFIES SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER COULD BE WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS RAIN...OR JUST A WET NON ACCUMULATING SNOW. SO
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE ARW AND NAM FOR TIMING...WITH THE BAND
IMPACTING INTERSTATE 90 MID TO LATE MORNING...AND NORTHWEST IOWA
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT...AND AS A SECONDARY WAVE DROP SOUTH...COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
RUNS DID SHIFT THIS SNOW SHOWER AREA FURTHER WEST FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CENTERED MORE BETWEEN THE JAMES RIVER AND INTERSTATE 29
CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE
CANADIAN/GFS AND ECMWF. OPTED TO EXCLUDE THE NAM AS IT SEEMED TO BE
THE OUTLIER IN TERMS OF THE PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS AND SEEMED TO BE
SLOWER THAN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. MODELS SUGGEST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER
APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS VARY FROM
SOLUTION TO SOLUTION...BUT IN GENERAL...ALL HINT AT ONLY A LIMITED
AMOUNT OF THE DENDRITIC LAYER SATURATING AND WITH THE WARMER AIR
BEGINNING TO RETURN IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING DECREASES WITH TIME. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT DROPPED TO FLURRIES IN
THE LATE MORNING IF ANYTHING IS LEFT BY THEN. EXPECT NICE WARMING
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER STRATUS MAY LINGER AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY LIMITING WARMING
POTENTIAL. WARMED HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NICE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN 925 HPA TEMPS WARMING INTO THE
10-13C RANGE.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH MINNESOTA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE
MOST PART...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE WAVE IS FOCUSED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. FRONT WORKS
BACK TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY...WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW EAST OF THE
FRONT. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES APPEAR TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NEAR THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY CREATING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
DEPENDING WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS ON. THE
FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY LEADING TO A
WARMING TREND. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...LEADING A
WARM BUT WINDY DAY. INCREASED WINDS ON MONDAY COMPARED TO THE
GUIDANCE BUT MAY NOT HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
DIMINISH INTO MVFR-IFR CATEGORY BY 12Z ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR
AS A BAND OF RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THAT AREA. THE BAND OF PRECIP
WILL THEN TRACK SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO TRANSITION
FAIRLY QUICKLY TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX THEN TO ENTIRELY SNOW AS THE
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY PICKS UP WITH STRONG LIFT ALOFT.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY IN SNOW. PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS AND LIFR VISIBILITY LIKELY IN HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS...THOUGH
LOWEST CONDITIONS ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST FOR 2-3 HOURS AT ANY ONE
LOCATION. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH DURING
THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KT LIKELY. THIS COULD
CAUSE A LITTLE FURTHER REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WHILE THE SNOW IS
FALLING...BUT BLOWING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE ONCE THE
SNOW IS ON THE GROUND DUE TO EXPECTED WET NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL.
IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO VFR CATEGORY EXPECTED INTO FAR NORTHWEST PART
OF THE AREA AROUND KHON BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPANDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
457 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SOME VERY LIGHT RAINFALL OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS...EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS A HILLSBORO TO ATHENS
LINE. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WERE ORIENTED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW...ROUGHLY
CENTERED OVER AUSTIN ACCORDING TO 08Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS HOLDING UP IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. 08Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWED RELATIVELY STRONG LEE
SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH 3 HR PRESSURE
FALLS OF AROUND 4 MB NEAR AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF 997
MB OVER THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES.
TODAY...THE PREVIOUS QUICK AFD WAS APPENDED BELOW. IN GENERAL OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED BY A
DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER DANGER
AND STRONG WIND CONCERNS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE PRIMARY
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DRIVING THESE CONDITIONS IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OBSERVED OVER UTAH...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST PER WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OBSERVED A STRONG JET
STREAK IN EXCESS OF 100 KTS AT THE 250 MB LEVEL AT THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH. THIS JET STREAK WAS LIKELY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CONUS ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AIDING IN THE
STRONG LEE SIDE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OBSERVED ACROSS THE OK AND TX
PANHANDLES.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...DRIVING THE SURFACE CYCLONE EAST-SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NORTH TX THIS AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15 TO 20
MPH. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN H850 THERMAL RIDGE ORIENTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL
RIDGE VARIES MODEL TO MODEL. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY FAVORS A STRONGER THERMAL RIDGE...SO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF THE
SPECTRUM OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WENT AHEAD WITH HIGHS JUST ABOVE
90 DEGREES NEAR BRECKENRIDGE AND GRAHAM...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR. TO THE EAST...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
80S TODAY...A BIT FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE DRIEST AIR AND STRONG
THERMAL RIDGE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW.
LOOKING AT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...ASSUMING HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE
MID 80S TO JUST ABOVE 90 DEGREES WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AS
EXPECTED...GRASSY/FINE FUEL TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE WARM THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT SUPPORT AT LEAST A HIGH FIRE
WEATHER DANGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...AND
A GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS
AS A RESULT. CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DEPENDENT UP ON THE STRENGTH OF WINDS AND
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THIS IS PARTLY BECAUSE MODELS
HAVE A PART OF THE ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED VERY
NEAR WICHITA FALLS...GENERALLY REDUCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORCE THAT WOULD OTHERWISE ACCELERATE WINDS THE ADDITIONAL 5 TO 10
MPH NECESSARY TO REACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER IF THE
SURFACE LOW IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH...LIKE THE RAP AND HRRR
ADVERTISED AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION...EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
DANGER MAY BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND A RED FLAG WARNING MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED.
THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR SHOWED A STRONG DRYLINE PUNCH INTO THE
WESTERN CWA...WITH THE DRYLINE PUSHING AS FAR EAST AS A JACKSBORO
TO LAMPASAS LINE BY 21Z. THE HRRR INCREASES WESTERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE TO 20 TO 25 KTS...OR STRONG ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL/EXTREME
FIRE DANGER WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CRASHING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. IF THESE HRRR CONDITIONS ARE
REALIZED...A RED FLAG WARNING WOULD CERTAINLY BE WARRANTED BECAUSE
ANY GRASS-FIRE IGNITED WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT...IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE...TO CONTROL. THIS IS DEFINITELY A WORST CASE
SCENARIO...AND IS NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OTHER GUIDANCE AT THIS
TIME. REGARDLESS...THIS BEARS WATCHING CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS THE HRRR WAS ALSO THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE AT THE
TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION.
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE
EAST THIS EVENING...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. WHILE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT YET...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
VERY FAST MOVING ONCE IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND PICK
UP TO AT LEAST 20 MPH GUSTING ABOVE 30 MPH JUST BEHIND ITS LEADING
EDGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY ABOUT 10 MPH
OR SO AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 MPH...GUSTING TO 45 MPH AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED AT PEAK
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS IS VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME AS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A 50 KT JET AT THE 850 MB LEVEL OVER THE
CWA BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES
55 TO 60 KT JET FROM 09 TO 12Z OVER THE CWA WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.
WENT AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH 1 PM WEDNESDAY AS THIS APPEARED TO BE THE BEST
WINDOW FOR NORTH WINDS EXCEEDING 25 MPH OR GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH.
THE START OR END TIMES OF THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED BY
LATER SHIFTS AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS BETTER RESOLVED.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL START OFF WITH THE WIND
ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT AS NORTH WINDS HOLD UP AROUND 25 MPH
GUSTING TO 40 MPH JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH
TO AROUND 20 MPH JUST AFTER NOON. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE MID 50S WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY SUNNY ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL AT LEAST TAKE SOME OF THE BITE OUT OF THE
COOL...BREEZY AIR. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THIS WILL BRING MANY LOCATIONS DOWN BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF URBANIZED AREAS WHICH WILL STAY
WARMER DUE TO THE ABSORPTION OF SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RELATIVELY
COMPACT BUT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER NORTH TEXAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE
ADVERTISING SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. THINK THE QPF
AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT...ARE STILL OPTIMISTIC BECAUSE TONIGHT`S
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PLOW SOUTH ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...EFFECTIVELY STUNTING OUR PRIMARY MECHANISM TO
RECHARGE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WITH WATER VAPOR.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO ORIGINATE FROM THE
TROUGH THAT SENDS THE STRONG FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND REMAIN
QUASI-STEADY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE MOVING EAST WITH THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ONLY REASON THIS MATTERS AT ALL IS
BECAUSE IT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF SOUTHERN
PACIFIC MOISTURE...SO THE ORIGIN OF THE RAPID MOISTENING OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS A BIT OF A MYSTERY AT
THIS TIME. GRANTED...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG...SO DYNAMIC LIFT...COOLING AND SATURATION FROM THE
BOTTOM UP...IS POSSIBLE.
WENT AHEAD WITH SOME 20 POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN CWA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOURCE REGION
OF MOISTURE FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF POP/QPF FORECAST. IF MOISTURE IS
JUST BEING UNDERESTIMATED IN GENERAL...POPS AND QPF MAY HAVE TO BE
BUMPED WEST IN LATER FORECASTS.
NEXT WEEKEND...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST CONUS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THIS TROUGH OVER
NORTH TX...OR JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN GENERAL...RESULTING
IN A WETTER FORECAST THAN IF THE TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA. YESTERDAY THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAD ALMOST NO ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION...SO IT WAS LARGELY DISCOUNTED. HOWEVER
TODAY...ABOUT HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE WITH THIS
SOLUTION...AND THE OPERATIONAL CANADIAN AND ECMWF HAVE SORT OF
COME ON BOARD AS WELL. /SORT OF/ IS USED BECAUSE THERE ARE SOME
FAIRLY LARGE TIMING AND STRENGTH DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THESE
MODELS.
HOWEVER THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH SEEMS TO BE THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE DICTATING A WET VERSUS DRY FORECAST...SO IT IS
GOOD TO SEE MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AT THIS
TIME. QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT VERY HIGH IN ANY OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...MOSTLY BECAUSE IN ALL SOLUTIONS THE UPPER TROUGH IS
POSITIVELY TILTED UNTIL IT MOVES EAST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.
BUT...BEGGARS CANT BE CHOOSERS...AND WE REALLY NEED SOME RAIN...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WEEKENDS TROUGH
CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/
IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THERE ARE TWO PRIMARY CONCERNS:
1. FIRE WEATHER DANGER WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON.
2. STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WITH REGARDS TO FIRE WEATHER DANGER: WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME. FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE HIGH TO
VERY HIGH WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON. CRITICAL OR
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A JACKSBORO TO LAMPASAS LINE IF WINDS ARE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN
HIGH FIRE DANGER IS HIGH. LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER DANGER IS LOW.
WITH REGARDS TO THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...GUSTING TO 40 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY FROM SUNRISE TO NOON ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THESE STRONG WINDS IS HIGH...THEREFORE A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON ON WEDNESDAY.
A FULL DISCUSSION INCLUDING REASONING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 85 42 57 36 62 / 5 0 0 0 0
WACO, TX 82 41 58 33 60 / 5 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 80 41 54 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 85 39 57 31 63 / 5 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 83 39 56 31 63 / 5 0 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 84 43 57 38 62 / 5 0 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 81 42 57 33 60 / 5 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 81 44 57 35 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 82 42 59 33 60 / 5 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 88 38 56 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
403 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...
THE STAGE IS SET FOR A EARLY SPRING STRONG WIND/BLOWING DUST AND
FIRE WEATHER EVENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. 3 AM SAT IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR
ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ROUGHLY EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...PLACING THE CWA ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
MID-LVL JET MAX WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A WEAK
SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM A LOW IN FAR NE COLO THROUGH THE WRN
PANHANDLES INTO ERN NM WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST TODAY. TIGHTENING
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE WEST THEN
W-NW. FINALLY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO NRN COLO AND WRN
NE...THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF STRONG WINDS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...MORE ON THAT LATER.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING...THE WEST
TEXAS SODAR AT REESE CENTER ALREADY SHOWS 30+ KTS AT 500 FT AGL.
WHILE WE DO HAVE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN CWA
THIS MORNING...UNFORTUNATELY...THIS MOISTURE WILL BE SCOURED OUT
QUICKLY AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
NOON /SEE DISCUSSION BELOW/. IN GENERAL...WE EXPECT WINDS TO RISE
INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SLIGHTLY
LOWER IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SLIGHTLY MORE ACROSS THE W-SW.
THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BUT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LOFT SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST. TEMPS WILL
BE QUITE WARM FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...PERHAPS PUSHING 90F IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS...WHILE CAA
COMING IN FROM THE NW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE FAR
SW TX PANHANDLE AND WRN SPLNS.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BARRELING SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. WHILE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT/S PROGRESS WILL BE
QUICKER IN THE EAST...LAGGING IN THE WEST...THERE IS STILL A FEW
HOURS OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. WE ARE FAVORING
THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP AND THE TTU-WRF...WHICH SHOWS THE
FRONT ENTERING CHILDRESS COUNTY AROUND 23 UTC...AND PARMER COUNTY
AROUND 00 UTC. BUT OF COURSE THE ACTUAL FROPA COULD VARY A COUPLE
HOURS EITHER WAY. AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA
/SUSTAINED SPEED OF AT LEAST 40 MPH AND/OR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 57
MPH/ ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA. WE ARE A LITTLE SKEPTICAL THAT
WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS IN THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS...BUT WE ARE PLANNING ON EXTENDING THE HIGH WIND WATCH SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK....WITH SOLID ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SOMEWHAT INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS PROGGED IN
THE 800-700MB WIND FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AROUND 0Z. THIS
SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE OVERALL FCST BUT DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...IT COULD LEAD TO A SHORT-DURATION LULL
IN GUSTY WINDS BEFORE A BIG INCREASE WITH THE FROPA.
AS FOR BLOWING DUST...WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CONCENTRATION OF DIRT AND
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT WE DON/T HAVE ANY STRONG INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO ADVISORY OR DUST STORM LEVELS. THIS IS
PARTLY DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION AND OUR EXPECTATION THAT THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER PEAK MIXING. IF THE FRONT IS FASTER/STRONGER
THAN EXPECTED...THEN DENSE BLOWING DUST MAY BE A GREATER CONCERN.
&&
.LONG TERM...
AFTER THE ACTIVE SHORT TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST SEEMS RELATIVELY
BENIGN BY COMPARISON. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES SQUARELY OVER WEST TEXAS. IT WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER BEHIND THIS EVENINGS FROPA...WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY TOPPING OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW MID-MARCH AVERAGES.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY WHICH WHEN COUPLED
WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE AND
RENEWED SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MEAN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR AVERAGE.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN WEST TO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT WILL HANG
OUT OVER THE GREAT BASIN MID-WEEK. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GET KICKED
EASTWARD LATE WEEK AS JET ENERGY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DO CONTINUE
TO PAINT POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT QPF SOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR THE CWA.
GIVEN THIS SIGNAL...WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN STILL APPEARS
LOW AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT. THE TIMING
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PASSING WAVE DOES ALSO CREATE LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON WHEN THE ASSOCIATED FROPA WILL OCCUR. A QUICKER SYSTEM/FRONT
COULD MEAN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH EITHER WAY THE SYSTEM WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH COOL AIR TO WORK WITH.
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL START OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. AT A MINIMUM...THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD HELP
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LESS CERTAIN IS EXACTLY
WHAT LONGITUDE THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES AND THUS WHETHER OR NOT IT
CAN BRING A WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTH PLAINS.
THE MOST RECENT ECMWF HAS TRENDED BACK FURTHER WEST AND
WETTER...WHILE THE GFS TRACK IS MORE EASTWARD WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE
DRY FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS. WE HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS AROUND 10
PERCENT FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT TO MAKE A MOVE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER UNTIL
THE NWP CAN COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. REGARDLESS...WARMER AND
DRY WEATHER SHOULD KICK OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS AND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW REDEVELOPS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTH PLAINS AREA TODAY AND WE WILL EXPAND
AND UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR WHOLE CWA.
DESPITE HIGH RH VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...VERY DRY AIR WILL SPREAD EAST RESULTING
IN RH VALUES DROPPING UNDER 15 PERCENT BY 10 AM FOR MANY AREAS...AND
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
WIND SPEEDS MAY BE ON THE LOW END OF CRITERIA ACROSS THE ERN ROLLING
PLAINS...IT APPEARS THAT WIND SPEEDS AND RH VALUES WILL SUPPORT AN
EXTREMELY CRITICAL DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS. WINDS MAY RELAX FOR A PERIOD AROUND 6 TO 7 PM...BUT
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING WILL BRING AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND MUCH STRONGER WINDS SPEEDS.
ALTHOUGH COOLING TEMPS AND RISING RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO REDUCE
THE FIRE DANGER...WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
9 PM CDT DUE TO THIS STRONG FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 71 25 52 24 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 76 28 54 25 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 77 29 55 26 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 78 30 54 26 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 80 32 56 28 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 80 31 55 25 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 81 33 56 26 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 83 34 58 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 85 35 58 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 88 36 58 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>031-033>044.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>023-027-028.
&&
$$
33/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1058 PM PDT Mon Mar 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and snow will be ending overnight Monday. Quieter weather is
expected through Thursday. A weak weather front will bring light
rain to the area on Friday, with another chance of rain late
Sunday into next Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Made some updates to the forecast for this evening into tonight. I
trimmed out showers in the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area and up much
of the Northern Panhandle. The surface low has pushed well into
Montana with the stratiform precip winding down across much of the
Central Panhandle Mountains (although some snow can be expected
over Lookout Pass this evening). The Spokane/Coeur d`Alene areas
did not see enough warming in the afternoon to achieve our
convective temperature; however, areas to the north and west are
seeing isolated showers developing. Temperatures are a bit too
cold for lightening with these showers, but thermal profiles are
more conducive for thunderstorms in the southeast from the
Northeast Blue Mtns to the Camas Prairie. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to diminish this evening with skies
clearing. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers across the region are beginning to wind down this
evening. Clearing skies will result in fog and low stratus in the
mountain valleys. Models are doing a poor job handling the moisture
near the surface, so forecast confidence is low with fog/stratus
tonight. KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW and KLWS will all see the potential
for some fog tonight with varying vis restrictions from LIFR to MVFR
possible. Drier air filtering in from Canada is expected to limit
the extent of low clouds, especially across the basin. /SVH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 PM PDT Mon Mar 10 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Tonight...cold pool and its associated instability located behind
a passing cold front all exit to the southeast and east tonight.
Small scale triggers rotating around the edges of a small scale
low pressure area nested in this same cooler air will act as
triggers. Additionally there is an increase in instability due to
surface heating allowed by sun breaks across parts of the
lowlands between the east side of the Cascades and the Idaho
Panhandle. For all these reasons and a number of HRRR model runs
depicting just such a scenario the forecast holds onto showers
along with very low wet bulb zero heights allowing for a typical
spring rain/snow/graupel/soft-hail mix of precipitation for
mid-slope down to valley and lowland locations with the expectation
that any accumulation associated with most intense convective
cells will be on the order of minutes rather than hours if at all.
Thunderstorm mention remains southeast third of Washington and
southern half of North Idaho into early evening with idea that
they will be weak, low topped, single or multicell type with
potential to produce heavy rain and small soft hail/collapsed snow
and gusty wind. Storm motion should be southeast at about 25-35
mph. /Pelatti
Tuesday through next Monday: High pressure builds into the area on
Tuesday for drier conditions. We will likely see some late
night/morning fog and low clouds in the valleys, but otherwise
should be nice weather. A minor weather system clips by to our
north on Wednesday evening but we don`t expect much weather from
this, other than some perhaps some mountain wind.
The next real good chance of precipitation arrives on Friday. This
system has a decent moisture tap. But the westerly flow will keep
the precipitation largely confined to the Cascades and Panhandle
mountains. ECMWF is slightly slower and wetter than the GFS. Snow
levels will remain high (6000` south, 5000` north) so there will
be little if any impact from this system. Does not look like
enough rain to cause any flooding concerns.
The weather system on it`s heels looks a little more formidable.
This wave has a narrow but well-defined moisture plume associated
with it. Initially it looks impressive with heavy rain pointed
into Vancouver Island and NW Washington. But as it moves eastward,
the GFS model spins up a low along this front well to our south
(west of San Francisco). This cuts off the moisture supply and we
are left with a dying frontal passage. The ECMWF meanwhile doesn`t
show this, and has a more consolidated wet front moving through on
Sunday night.
Temperatures ahead of this front have the potential to be the
warmest of the season so far, nearing 60F in the Spokane area. But
it won`t take much change in the timing to render a cooler and
wetter day for Sunday than currently forecast. Snow levels will
be very high (7000-8000`) so the passes will be all rain. The snow
levels lower by Monday morning and continue to lower during the
day. RJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 30 48 27 53 32 55 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 29 47 26 52 30 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 32 48 28 54 34 55 / 50 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 35 54 33 60 36 62 / 40 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 29 53 26 54 27 55 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 28 45 24 47 28 50 / 10 0 0 0 10 10
Kellogg 30 45 29 49 31 50 / 40 10 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 32 55 30 57 33 60 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 32 53 32 55 33 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 28 52 28 53 30 56 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1102 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. MORNING 72501 SOUNDING AND
TRENDS SUGGEST A DAY OF CHASING TEMPERATURES UP. LATEST LAMP MOS
GUIDANCE IS BEHIND THE TEMPERATURE CURVE.
A PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT...DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW ALONG WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO 55-60 ACROSS NYC METRO AND
MOST OF LONG ISLAND...AND 50-55 TO THE NORTH...SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN A 00Z GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND. THE 06Z RAP SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS COULD EVEN REACH THE LOWER 60S INVOF NYC WITH ENOUGH
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...BUT HAVE DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER IT WILL GET
THIS WARM AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL LOWER/THICKEN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH/WEST OF NYC...
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE OH VALLEY. OVERRUNNING
LIGHT PCPN SHOULD ALSO MOVE INTO AREAS MAINLY NORTH/WEST OF NYC
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED WARMER TONIGHT...WITH LOWS 40-45
INVOF NYC AND 35-40 ELSEWHERE...AND WITH ELEVATED WARM NOSE
MOVING IN PCPN SHOULD START OFF AS RAIN THROUGHOUT.
GFS/ECMWF RELATIVELY CLOSE ON DETAILS WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE
INTENSIFYING LOW MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES NW OF NYC
BY WED EVENING. THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON WED SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK DURING THE DAYTIME IN THE COOL SECTOR. AS THE SUB-980 MB
SFC LOW TRACKS OVER THE AREA JUST NW OF NYC AND THE COAST LATE WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA COULD GET INTO THE
WARM SECTOR...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 50S MAINLY ACROSS NYC
METRO...NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE
WILL BE MINIMAL. A LINE OF FORCED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IS LIKELY
ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NJ AND NYC METRO WHERE SFC INSTABILITY
LIKELY TO BE SFC-BASED AS BOTH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE INTENSE LOW WED NIGHT AS
IT DEPARTS TO THE GULF OF MAINE...WITH LOWS 20-25 AND POSSIBLY
FALLING TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY
LOW TRACK...HEAVIER PCPN SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO THE NORTH...SO
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED LATE WED NIGHT AS PCPN
CHANGES OVER TO LIGHT SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
THU AND THU NIGHT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD...WITH TEMPS NOT
RISING MUCH IF AT ALL...REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 20S AT
BEST. NW WINDS COULD REACH ADVY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS INLAND...TEENS MOST ELSEWHERE...AND LOWER 20S IN NYC.
SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON RECORD COLD.
THIS VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS DEEP LAYER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS WITH SW RETURN FLOW AND WAA ON FRI.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA LATE FRI INTO SAT WILL
DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MIDDAY SAT. SOME QUESTION
ON THE EXTENT OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS VERY DRY AIR INITIALLY IN
PLACE WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME. BETTER FORCING ALSO LOOKS TO BE TO
THE NORTH...SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POP.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW WELL TO THE NORTH...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY. MAINLY VFR WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR HAZE
AT KGON. UNCERTAIN OF WHEN MVFR HAZE DISSIPATE...THINKING THIS
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z FOR THE 30H TAFS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN.
WINDS INITIALLY W-WNW...MOSTLY LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC. WINDS
AROUND 7-12 KTS DECREASE IN SPEED LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
BECOMING MORE W-SW. THIS CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING WITH POSSIBLE
WIDE VARIATIONS IN DIRECTION AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN. A FAST
MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WED
MORNING...SENDING A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WED.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 17 KT FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD BE 30-40 DEGREES LEFT OF
FORECAST WIND DIRECTION AT TIMES.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST TO AROUND 17 KT FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD BE 30-40 DEGREES
LEFT OF FORECAST WIND DIRECTION AT TIMES. POSSIBLE HYBRID SEA
BREEZE WITH WINDS BACKING AROUND TO 220-250 THIS AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST TO AROUND 17 KT FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD BE 30-40 DEGREES
LEFT OF FORECAST WIND DIRECTION AT TIMES.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST TO AROUND 15 KT FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD BE 30-40 DEGREES
LEFT OF FORECAST WIND DIRECTION AT TIMES.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST TO AROUND 15 KT FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD BE 30-40 DEGREES
LEFT OF FORECAST WIND DIRECTION AT TIMES.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST TO AROUND 15 KT FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD BE 30-40 DEGREES
LEFT OF FORECAST WIND DIRECTION AT TIMES. POSSIBLE HYBRID SEA
BREEZE WITH WINDS BACKING AROUND TO 220-250 THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN RA. ESE-SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT GUSTING
UP TO AROUND 20 KT LATE WED AFTN-EVE THEN W-NW WINDS AROUND 20 KT
GUSTING UP TO 35 KT LATER WED NIGHT.
.THU...IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY. NW G30-40KT.
.FRI...VFR.
.SAT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ON WED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. SCA CRITERIA
ARE LIKELY TO BE REACHED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WATCH
CONSIDERING THE HIGH AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTHENING WINDS
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. GALES THEN
LOOK TO END THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS AND SEAS STILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...WITH 5 FT SEAS NOT DIMINISHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLY RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOW TRACK AND THEREFORE ASSOCIATED QPF WITH THE MID WEEK STORM
HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD...SO ONLY EXPECT BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH FOR SOUTHERN CT...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE
NJ. LOWER QPF OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH EXPECTED FOR NYC METRO AND LONG
ISLAND. LOCAL AMTS OF ABOUT 1/2 INCH HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE
IN TSTMS. THE BULK OF THIS PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE TIED OR BROKEN AT MOST LOCAL
CLIMATE SITES FRIDAY MORNING.
RECORD AND FORECAST LOW TEMPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING (MAR 14)...
RECORD LOW
MINIMUM FCST
NEWARK.........17 IN 1980 17
BRIDGEPORT.....16 IN 1980 13
CENTRAL PARK... 8 IN 1896 19
LAGUARDIA......18 IN 1980 22
KENNEDY........19 IN 1980 18
ISLIP..........17 IN 1989 13
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...PICCA/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/PICCA
LONG TERM...GOODMAN/PICCA/SEARS
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...PICCA/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1000 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. MORNING 72501 SOUNDING AND
TRENDS SUGGEST A DAY OF CHASING TEMPERATURES UP. LATEST LAMP MOS
GUIDANCE IS BEHIND THE TEMPERATURE CURVE.
A PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT...DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW ALONG WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO 55-60 ACROSS NYC METRO AND
MOST OF LONG ISLAND...AND 50-55 TO THE NORTH...SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN A 00Z GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND. THE 06Z RAP SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS COULD EVEN REACH THE LOWER 60S INVOF NYC WITH ENOUGH
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...BUT HAVE DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER IT WILL GET
THIS WARM AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL LOWER/THICKEN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH/WEST OF NYC...
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE OH VALLEY. OVERRUNNING
LIGHT PCPN SHOULD ALSO MOVE INTO AREAS MAINLY NORTH/WEST OF NYC
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED WARMER TONIGHT...WITH LOWS 40-45
INVOF NYC AND 35-40 ELSEWHERE...AND WITH ELEVATED WARM NOSE
MOVING IN PCPN SHOULD START OFF AS RAIN THROUGHOUT.
GFS/ECMWF RELATIVELY CLOSE ON DETAILS WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE
INTENSIFYING LOW MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES NW OF NYC
BY WED EVENING. THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON WED SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK DURING THE DAYTIME IN THE COOL SECTOR. AS THE SUB-980 MB
SFC LOW TRACKS OVER THE AREA JUST NW OF NYC AND THE COAST LATE WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA COULD GET INTO THE
WARM SECTOR...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 50S MAINLY ACROSS NYC
METRO...NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE
WILL BE MINIMAL. A LINE OF FORCED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IS LIKELY
ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NJ AND NYC METRO WHERE SFC INSTABILITY
LIKELY TO BE SFC-BASED AS BOTH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE INTENSE LOW WED NIGHT AS
IT DEPARTS TO THE GULF OF MAINE...WITH LOWS 20-25 AND POSSIBLY
FALLING TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY
LOW TRACK...HEAVIER PCPN SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO THE NORTH...SO
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED LATE WED NIGHT AS PCPN
CHANGES OVER TO LIGHT SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
THU AND THU NIGHT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD...WITH TEMPS NOT
RISING MUCH IF AT ALL...REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 20S AT
BEST. NW WINDS COULD REACH ADVY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS INLAND...TEENS MOST ELSEWHERE...AND LOWER 20S IN NYC.
SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON RECORD COLD.
THIS VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS DEEP LAYER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS WITH SW RETURN FLOW AND WAA ON FRI.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA LATE FRI INTO SAT WILL
DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MIDDAY SAT. SOME QUESTION
ON THE EXTENT OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS VERY DRY AIR INITIALLY IN
PLACE WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME. BETTER FORCING ALSO LOOKS TO BE TO
THE NORTH...SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POP.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLOW WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 310 FROM MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON
AT 7 TO 10 KT...BEFORE BACKING A BIT BY LATE AFT TO 270-290. RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS EVE WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW.
A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WED
MORNING...SENDING A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE AREA BY DAYBREAK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24H. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z FOR THE 30H TAFS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 17 KT FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST TO AROUND 17 KT FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE HYBRID SEA BREEZE
WITH WINDS BACKING AROUND TO 230-250 LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST TO AROUND 17 KT FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST TO AROUND 15 KT FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST TO AROUND 15 KT FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST TO AROUND 15 KT FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN RA. ESE-SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT GUSTING
UP TO AROUND 20 KT LATE WED AFTN-EVE THEN W-NW WINDS AROUND 20 KT
GUSTING UP TO 35 KT LATER WED NIGHT.
.THU...IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY. NW G30-40KT.
.FRI...VFR.
.SAT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ON WED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. SCA CRITERIA
ARE LIKELY TO BE REACHED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WATCH
CONSIDERING THE HIGH AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTHENING WINDS
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. GALES THEN
LOOK TO END THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS AND SEAS STILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...WITH 5 FT SEAS NOT DIMINISHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLY RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOW TRACK AND THEREFORE ASSOCIATED QPF WITH THE MID WEEK STORM
HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD...SO ONLY EXPECT BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH FOR SOUTHERN CT...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE
NJ. LOWER QPF OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH EXPECTED FOR NYC METRO AND LONG
ISLAND. LOCAL AMTS OF ABOUT 1/2 INCH HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE
IN TSTMS. THE BULK OF THIS PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE TIED OR BROKEN AT MOST LOCAL
CLIMATE SITES FRIDAY MORNING.
RECORD AND FORECAST LOW TEMPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING (MAR 14)...
RECORD LOW
MINIMUM FCST
NEWARK.........17 IN 1980 17
BRIDGEPORT.....16 IN 1980 13
CENTRAL PARK... 8 IN 1896 19
LAGUARDIA......18 IN 1980 22
KENNEDY........19 IN 1980 18
ISLIP..........17 IN 1989 13
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...PICCA/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/PICCA
LONG TERM...GOODMAN/PICCA/SEARS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...PICCA/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
751 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. BUMPED HOURLY TEMPS/MAX T UP A
FEW DEGREES THOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL AND HI-RES
GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOWING BETTER WARMING TODAY.
BEHIND A PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT...DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO 55-60 ACROSS NYC METRO
AND MOST OF LONG ISLAND...AND 50-55 TO THE NORTH...SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN A 00Z GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND. THE 06Z RAP SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS COULD EVEN REACH THE LOWER 60S INVOF NYC WITH ENOUGH
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...BUT HAVE DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER IT WILL GET
THIS WARM AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL LOWER/THICKEN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH/WEST OF NYC...
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE OH VALLEY. OVERRUNNING
LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD ALSO MOVE INTO AREAS MAINLY NORTH/WEST OF NYC
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED WARMER TONIGHT...WITH LOWS 40-45
INVOF NYC AND 35-40 ELSEWHERE...AND WITH ELEVATED WARM NOSE
MOVING IN PRECIP SHOULD START OFF AS RAIN THROUGHOUT.
GFS/ECMWF RELATIVELY CLOSE ON DETAILS WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE
INTENSIFYING LOW MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES NW OF NYC
BY WED EVENING. THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON WED SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK DURING THE DAYTIME IN THE COOL SECTOR. AS THE SUB-980 MB
SFC LOW TRACKS OVER THE AREA JUST NW OF NYC AND THE COAST LATE WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA COULD GET INTO THE
WARM SECTOR...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 50S MAINLY ACROSS NYC
METRO...NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE
WILL BE MINIMAL. A LINE OF FORCED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IS LIKELY
ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NJ AND NYC METRO WHERE SFC INSTABILITY
LIKELY TO BE SFC-BASED AS BOTH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE INTENSE LOW WED NIGHT AS
IT DEPARTS TO THE GULF OF MAINE...WITH LOWS 20-25 AND POSSIBLY
FALLING TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY
LOW TRACK...HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO THE NORTH...SO
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED LATE WED NIGHT AS PRECIP
CHANGES OVER TO LIGHT SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
THU AND THU NIGHT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD...WITH TEMPS NOT
RISING MUCH IF AT ALL...REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 20S AT
BEST. NW WINDS COULD REACH ADVY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS INLAND...TEENS MOST ELSEWHERE...AND LOWER 20S IN NYC.
SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON RECORD COLD.
THIS VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS DEEP LAYER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS WITH SW RETURN FLOW AND WAA ON FRI.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA LATE FRI INTO SAT WILL
DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MIDDAY SAT. SOME QUESTION
ON THE EXTENT OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS VERY DRY AIR INITIALLY IN
PLACE WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME. BETTER FORCING ALSO LOOKS TO BE TO
THE NORTH...SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POP.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLOW WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 310 FROM MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON
AT 7 TO 10 KT...BEFORE BACKING A BIT BY LATE AFT TO 270-290. RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS EVE WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW.
A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WED
MORNING...SENDING A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE AREA BY DAYBREAK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24H. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z FOR THE 30H TAFS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 17 KT FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST TO AROUND 17 KT FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE HYRID SEABREEZE
WITH WINDS BACKING AROUND TO 230-250 LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST TO AROUND 17 KT FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST TO AROUND 15 KT FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST TO AROUND 15 KT FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST TO AROUND 15 KT FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN RA. ESE-SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT GUSTING
UP TO AROUND 20 KT LATE WED AFTN-EVE THEN W-NW WINDS AROUND 20 KT
GUSTING UP TO 35 KT LATER WED NIGHT.
.THU...IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY. NW G30-40KT.
.FRI...VFR.
.SAT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS STARTING TO BACK SW AND GUST OVER 20 KT AT 44017. SHOULD SEE
MINIMAL SCA CONDS FROM THERE ON EAST THIS MORNING...SO SCA
REMAINS IN EFFECT ONLY ON THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ON WED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. SCA CRITERIA
ARE LIKELY TO BE REACHED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WATCH
CONSIDERING THE HIGH AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTHENING WINDS
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. GALES THEN
LOOK TO END THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS AND SEAS STILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...WITH 5 FT SEAS NOT DIMINISHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLY RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOW TRACK AND THEREFORE ASSOCIATED QPF WITH THE MID WEEK STORM
HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD...SO ONLY EXPECT BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH FOR SOUTHERN CT...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE
NJ. LOWER QPF OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH EXPECTED FOR NYC METRO AND LONG
ISLAND. LOCAL AMTS OF ABOUT 1/2 INCH HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE
IN TSTMS. THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE TIED OR BROKEN AT MOST LOCAL
CLIMATE SITES FRIDAY MORNING.
RECORD AND FORECAST LOW TEMPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING (MAR 14)...
RECORD LOW
MINIMUM FCST
NEWARK.........17 IN 1980 17
BRIDGEPORT.....16 IN 1980 13
CENTRAL PARK... 8 IN 1896 19
LAGUARDIA......18 IN 1980 22
KENNEDY........19 IN 1980 18
ISLIP..........17 IN 1989 13
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PICCA
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/PICCA
LONG TERM...GOODMAN/PICCA/SEARS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...GOODMAN/PICCA/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
CLIMATE...PICCA
EQUIPMENT...//
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
930 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.UPDATE...UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS EAST IDAHO TODAY.
AREA WEB CAMS STILL SHOW LIGHT SNOWS MOVING MAINLY THROUGH EASTERN
HIGHLANDS IN LINE WITH EARLY NAM. NAM AND HRRR SWING REMNANT
MOISTURE THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...PAINTING LIGHT
QPF ACROSS THE REGION. LOCAL WRF AND GFS ALSO PAINT BAND OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
INITIATE PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED STRATUS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
WILL LEAVE THE WEAK ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE CORRIDOR THROUGH SNAKE PLAIN. HIGHER POPS WILL STAY IN
PLACE OVER SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH
AND GRADIENT TURNS MORE NORTHERLY. FOR NOW...NO UPDATES TO CURRENT
FORECAST. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST. A QUICK LOOK AT WEBCAMS IS SHOWING THAT AREAS ALONG THE
DIVIDE UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR UP AND
THE THREAT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS DIMINISHING.
THEREFORE...WILL BE ALLOWING THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE WITH
THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING THINGS TO GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT BY THIS EVENING. AS THE
WEEK WEARS ON...SE ID WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DRIER NW FLOW
AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE PASSING ALONG THE DIVIDE ON THURSDAY BUT AT THE MOMENT IT
LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY DRY SO AS OF NOW...JUST EXPECTING SOME
PASSING CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM
A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 50S. EP
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA THAT A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED OVER THE COAST AS A FEW PAC STORM SYSTEMS BREAK OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW IMPACTING MAINLY THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS
AND ERN HIGHLANDS. THE SECOND STORM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY WITH THE GFS
INDICATING A FAIRLY SHALLOW WAVE BRUSHING THE DIVIDE REGION WHEREAS
THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A MUCH DEEPER WAVE DIGGING THROUGH SRN
IDAHO WITH A VIGOROUS SHOT OF PRECIPITATION FOR SE IDAHO. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE GOING GRIDS WHICH ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS TIMING
AND STRENGTH. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE GFS TO SEE IF IT MAKES A
MOVE TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF FOR MONDAY. TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HUSTON
AVIATION...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS SHIFTING INTO THE WYOMING
BORDER REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW A
BROAD AREA OF MODEST SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...THE
FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS SE IDAHO RESULTING IN A LINE OF
WIND CONVERGENCE WORKING DOWN THE VALLEY STARTING NEAR KRXE AT ABOUT
14Z AND ADVANCING THROUGH KIDA AND KPIH THROUGH 18Z WITH
ACCOMPANYING MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS. BEYOND
21Z...SUBSIDING NE WINDS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR THE REGION OUT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. KSUN SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HUSTON
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
620 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2014
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
Water vapor loop as of 08Z showed an impressive shortwave trough
continuing to dig southeastward into Utah. RAP analysis had a 400mb
potential vorticity (PV) anomaly extending from the base of the
trough near Great Salt Lake northeastward into eastern
Washington...suggesting a little more digging before the wave
translates eastward. Warmest temperatures in the lower troposphere
(850mb) were found across the High Plains of western Kansas into
West Texas (+17C at both North Platte and Dodge City; +20C at
Amarillo). The 08Z surface analysis showed a deepening surface low
centered near the western Nebraska-Kansas state border. Surface
winds continued to respond with overnight winds in the 10 to 13 knot
range, helping keep temperatures from dropping much. It was still in
the lower to mid 40s across much of the southwest and west central
Kansas region. Surface cold frontogenesis was noted across
northeastern Wyoming into the northern Nebraska Panhandle.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
Moderate to high impact wind event this afternoon/evening is the
main forecast challenge and how to handle this event with headlines
(advisory vs. warning). Now that the forecast wind event is within
higher resolution short-term models (RAP13, for instance) temporal
range, we are gaining a bit higher confidence in the wind forecast.
As the surface low moves southeast into central Kansas, it will
continue to deepen down to about 995mb while surface
anticyclogenesis will ramp up across the northern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains. This will induce a very tight pressure
gradient across western Kansas by midday...and especially this
afternoon.
The combined effect of the pressure gradient and the
isallobaric wind due to pressure change, will likely lead to
sustained winds around 40 mph for areas along and west of Highway
283 corridor...especially in the 22-01Z time frame. Forecast
soundings off the NAM12 and RAP13 both show around 35 knots just off
the surface around 900mb at Dodge City at 21Z with mixing up to
800-825mb. The winds around 800-850mb will pick up quite a bit as
the north wind low level jet strengthens west of the low at this
level. For Dodge City, the 00Z forecast soundings support a high
wind event (40mph sustained and/or 58mph gusts) with 50 knots shown
by both the NAM12 and RAP13 at the top of the mixed layer (which by
that point will be due to vigorous cold advection). Based on this
information, we will upgrade to a High Wind Warning for US283
corridor (Ness City down to Englewood) west to the Colorado border.
Per collaboration with surrounding offices, we will also include
areas of blowing dust where the High Wind Warning will be in effect
and hit it pretty hard in the NPW product. As far as precipitation
goes, the only area expected to see any measurable precipitation
will be the I-70 corridor, and will carry around 50 POPs up there. A
few tenths of an inch of wet snow may accumulate during the 23-02Z
time frame in particular.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave breaking
away from a larger scale trough Wednesday as it digs southeast
across the Rockies, and developing into a closed off upper level
low across the Intermountain West. Meanwhile, a general westerly
flow aloft will prevail across the Western High Plains through the
end of the week. This will result in dry conditions persisting
across western Kansas through Thursday night with insufficient
low/mid level moisture present. The closed off upper level low in
the Desert Southwest is then expected to open up and push eastward
into the South Plains early Friday bringing marginal precip
chances to the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles based on the
projected track of the shortwave. Cannot rule out a slight chance
for light rain across extreme southern portions of southwest and
south central Kansas Friday as the upper level system skirts
across our southern fringe.
Much cooler temperatures are likely Wednesday as arctic air spills
southward into western Kansas in wake of a departing cold front. The
NAM/GFS/ECMWF show H85 temperatures dropping well below 0C across
central and western Kansas initially Tuesday night. A slight
rebound to around 0C across central Kansas to near 5C along the
Colorado border is expected Wednesday afternoon due to some
northwesterly downsloping developing. Expect highs up into the
upper 40s(F) to possibly the lower to mid 50s(F) under decreasing
cloud cover. A quick bounce back to warmer temperatures will occur
Thursday as the arctic high dips further south across Texas while
lee side troughing redevelops across eastern Colorado. This will
quickly return a southwesterly downslope flow to western Kansas
pushing H85 temperatures up into the lower to mid Teens(C) across
central and western Kansas. Highs will easily reach the 60s(F)
Thursday afternoon with near 70F not out of the question in some
locations. Another cold front is projected to push through western
Kansas early Friday once again dropping temperatures across the
area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early this
afternoon. Low level stratus is expected to develop behind a cold
front as it pushes across western Kansas this afternoon. MVFR
cigs will be possible late this afternoon into this evening at
all TAF sites as a result. Strong northerly winds will develop
behind the cold front this afternoon with sustained winds of 35 to
45kt and gusts up to 50kt. This may result in periods of blowing
dust reducing visibilities to MVFR in the vicinity of KGCK and
KDDC. Brief IFR vsbys cannot be ruled out. Light snow will be
possible in the vicinity of KHYS this evening which may result in
IFR vsbys in blowing snow. The winds will become more
northwesterly tonight while subsiding somewhat.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 27 51 26 / 20 20 0 0
GCK 56 25 50 24 / 20 20 0 0
EHA 63 27 48 28 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 64 26 50 25 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 55 27 50 24 / 40 50 0 0
P28 62 30 52 28 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING from 1 PM CDT /Noon MDT/ this afternoon to 11
PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening FOR KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-
084>088.
WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM CDT this evening
FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-066-079>081-089-090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MRNG SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIPRES SITUATED EAST OF THE FL COAST WHILE
UPSTREAM LOPRES IS LOCATED OVER KANSAS. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS BEEN STATIONARY FROM THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND EXTENDS
WESTWARD BACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THRU TNGT.
FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY...OROGRAPHIC MID AND HI CLOUDS
DEVELOPED TO THE LEE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT OVNGT AND CONTINUED
INTO THE MRNG. THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THESE CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE. LATEST RAP SHOWS MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
THE 700-400 MB LAYER PERSISTING THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN...THOUGH
DRIER AIR MAY ERODE CLOUDS IN CENTRAL VA AND SRN MD DURING THIS
TIME. FCST WAS UPDATED TO HOLD ON TO THESE MT WAVE CLOUDS LONGER
INTO THE AFTN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA.
WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING...DID NOT WANT TO LOWER MAX TEMP
FCST TOO MUCH WITH THE ALREADY WARM START TO THE DAY AND GIVEN
THAT EVEN A COUPLE OF HRS OF SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY WILL MIX
OUT THE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER EVIDENT ON THE 12Z IAD
RAOB...RESULTING IN A QUICK JUMP IN TEMPS.
SFC BOUNDARY IS FCST TO STALL CLOSE TO THE POTOMAC RIVER TNGT. LGT
SELY FLOW SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MILDER
OVNGT TEMPS WHILE ELY ALONG AND COOLER CONDITIONS RESIDE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP IS EXPTECTED TO STAY
WEST OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE WED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MIDWEEK SYSTEM FOR CWFA LOOKING INCRSGLY WARM AND CNVCTV...AS MDL
CONSENSUS TAKES TRACK OF SFC LOW N OF CWFA. /NAM STILL APPEARS TO BE
AN OUTLIER AND WAS NOT USED./ THEREFORE...AREA WL BE W/IN WM SECTOR
OF SYSTEM WED AS CDFNT ENTERS DURING PK HTG...WITH ALL THAT ENTAILS.
SFC LOW WL HV STRONG ASSOCD DYNAMICS...IN TERMS OF S/WV ENERGY...A
VIGOROUS WIND FIELD...AND BAROCLINICITY. SFC SYSTEM WL HV LIFT FM
RRQ NRN STREAM AND LFQ SRN STREAM UPR JETS. PLUS...A RAPID DROP IN
H5 HGTS WL ADD TO THE POTENCY OF THE ENVIRONMENT. THESE FACTORS WL
SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING LOW...WHICH WL BE NEAREST PTMC HIGHLANDS
NEAR 18Z.
AM THINKING THAT THERE WL BE AMPLE CLDCVR DURING THE MRNG...BUT ANY
BREAKS CUD LEAD TO INSTBY DUE TO AFTN DEWPTS INTO THE LWR 50S. GFS
PROGS A FEW HND JOULES OF CAPE BY THIS TIME...AS CDFNT/HGT FALLS
ENTER THE SCENE. THINK THAT THERE WL BE ENUF GOING FOR UPDRAFTS TO
DVLP...AND CANNOT PRECLUDE A MORE CONCENTRATED LINE OF SHRA/TSRA
/INSTEAD OF A MORE WIDESPREAD OCNL SHRA SITUATION/. WNDS BY THIS PT
ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT...WHICH CUD BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SFC IN
ANY SHRA/STORM. THEREFORE FEEL THAT THERES A RISK OF DMGG WND GUSTS.
ALREADY HV CHC TSRA IN GRIDS AND SVR RISK IN HWO. RAISED MAXT CLSR
TO 70F DC SWD IN RESPONSE TO WAA AHD OF FNT.
A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS IS STILL XPCTD WED NGT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA. LTST INDICATIONS ARE THAT PCPN WL DEPART FIRST ACRS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE STORY WL BE DIFF FOR THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APLCNS. HV
KEPT CAT POPS FOR OCNL SHSN. DONT BELIEVE SNW WL BE A BIG IMPACT
EVEN THERE.
THE BIGGER STORY WED NGT INTO THU MRNG WL BE THE WND FIELD AND
TEMPS...AS STRONG CAA WL SUPPORT MIXING OF 45 KT W/IN BNDRY LYR. HV
ONCE AGN BOOSTED WNDS IN THE GRIDS. SUSPECT A WND ADVY WL BE NCSRY
AT SOME PT...ALTHO PERHAPS NOT FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA. MOS CONSISTENT
W/ MIN-T THU MRNG IN THE TEENS AND 20S...MEANING ACTUAL TEMP DROPS
OF 40-50F-- AND THATS NOT FACTORING IN WND CHILL. ON TOP OF THE SNW
FOR THE MTNS...WND CHILL VALUES APPROACHING ADVY LVLS AS WELL.
IMPACT OF CAA IN FULL EFFECT THU. MAXT BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR A
CPL CYCLES...SUGGESTING IT/LL BE A STRUGGLE TO RISE ABV FRZG ACRS
NRN MD AND W OF THE SHEN VLY. DO THINK THAT THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WL
RIP APART ANY CLD DECK...SO WL HV AMPLE BUT INEFFECTUAL SUNSHN. ON
THE WRN SLOPES...SAME BASIC THEME AS HIPRES BLDS...BUT THE CLRG WL
BE A LTL DELAYED. STILL HV PTSUN AND A CHC SHSN FOR THE MRNG.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY FRIDAY FROM
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE MORNING TO HIGHS IN THE 50S
DURING THE DAYTIME AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US
STRETCHES UP INTO OUR AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FILL IN AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY EVENING. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL BE IN THE 30S AND HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM
SOME LIGHT PRECIP WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOCAL IMPACTS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 50S...5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THE HIGH ON SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY...BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE PERIOD. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...BUT A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE
FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY BEFORE PTYPE
SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. COOL
AIR WILL FILL IN ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THIS FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL ONLY GET INTO THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TDA AND TNGT. LGT SWLY WINDS TDA WILL BECOME E/SE
TNGT.
FLGT RESTRICTIONS /MVFR-IFR/ LKLY WED...MAINLY AFTN-EVE...IN
RESPONSE TO LOPRES TRACKING N OF TERMINALS DRAGGING A CDFNT THRU. A
PROLONGED PD OF RESTRICTIONS LOOKING LESS LKLY THO...AS PCPN WL BE
SHOWERY IN NATURE. LWS ALSO LKLY BOTH AHD OF AND BHD FNT...AS 40-50
KT OF WND WL BE PRESENT 2000-3000 FT OFF THE GRND.
WINDY CONDS /NW 20G35-40KT/ WL CONT INTO THU...BUT WL GRDLY SUBSIDE
THRU THE AFTN. OTRW...VFR SHUD PREVAIL INTO THE WKND.
&&
.MARINE...
LGT WINDS TDA. WINDS BECOME SELY LATE TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS
APPROACH SCA CRITERIA CLOSE TO 12Z OVER THE MID CHSPK BAY BUT HAVE
CAPPED IT AT 15 KT AT THIS TIME WITH SUCH A MARGINAL SETUP.
SLY FLOW WL INCR WED AHD OF CDFNT. HV RAISED SCA FOR THE TIME BEING
DURING THE AFTN FOR ALL WATERS. HWVR...BEST RISK OF WNDS MIXING TO
SFC WL BE IN ASSOCIATION W/ CNVCTN...WHICH MAY REQUUIRE SMW/S
INSTEAD.
ONCE THE CDFNT CROSSES THE MARINE AREA WED NGT...WNDS WL VEER NWLY
AND PICK UP SGFNTLY. GDNC STILL SUGGESTING THAT GLW LKLY WED NGT...
LASTING INTO THU. BYD THAT...RAMP DOWN SCA CONDS XPCTD INTO FRI AS
HIPRES BLDS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ALREADY UP TO A FT ABV NORMAL. ELEVATED WATER LVLS
SHUD CONT THRU THE DAY TODAY...BUT SEE NO REASON WHY INCREASES SHUD
WIDEN. MDL GDNC CONCURS.
THE BEST PUSH OF SLY FLOW COMES WED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTN AHD OF A STRONG CDFNT. WHILE THE HIGHER OF THE TWO TIDE
CYCLES COMES AT NIGHT...THE DIFFERENCE IS ONLY A MATTER OF INCHES.
WOULD THINK THAT THE PM CYCLE WOULD STILL HAVE A HIGHER RISK...DUE
TO WHEN THE PUSH OF SLY FLOW ARRIVES. BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT MINOR
INUNDATION MAY RESULT.
EXPECT A BLOW OUT TO OCCUR WED NGT...BUT AM UNSURE HOW IT WL
INTERACT/BE TIMED COMPARED TO THE INCOMING TIDE CYCLE. REGARDLESS...
ONCE THE WED NGT TIDE PULLS OUT...WATER SHUD BE DRIVEN OUT...AND WL
BE TALKING ABOUT NEGATIVE WATER LVL DEPARTURES BY THU.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...JRK/HTS
MARINE...JRK/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED MAINLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE NE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NRN MANITOBA ON THE LEADING EDGE OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE TO THE SE AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO WRN CANADA.
ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER SASK IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DIVE TOWARD THE UPPER
MS VALLEY AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
TRAILING LOW PRES OVER QUEBEC EXTENDED THROUGH NRN ONTARIO INTO SRN
MANITOBA. TO THE SOUTH...MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILED WITH READINGS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FROM NRN MN AND NRN WI
THROUGH UPPER MI. EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO LIMITED
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND
UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING BRINGING AN INITIAL INFLUX OF COLDER
AIR. SO...MAX DAYTIME READINGS ARE EXPECTED EARLY WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES IN AND 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -13C BY
00Z/WED...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
OVER THE NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TONIGHT...AS THE SASK SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE AREA MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH 925 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND -21C AND INCREASING WINDS VEERING FROM THE FROM THE NNW TO
NE. A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR SOME LES FOR LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED.
THE POSITION OF THE DGZ WILL ALSO BE MOST FAVORABLE FROM 06Z-12Z/WED.
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MON SHOWED ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE ICE COVER FOR
AT LEAST SOME HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE LAKE TO SUPPORT LES. SINCE
THE ICE WILL STILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE LES POTENTIAL...EXPECT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...GREATEST OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE NE WINDS WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW AT IWD...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES/AMOUNTS FARTHER
TO THE WEST...OR FOR THE KEWEENAW WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV WILL BE MINIMAL.
OTHERWISE...THE MUCH COLDER AIR WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO AND WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -20 LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE PRODUCING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
EXPECT THOSE TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE CREATED
SOME GAPS IN THE ICE NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...NOT THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH ASSISTANCE
TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EVEN THOUGH 900MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
-22C. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 3-4KFT...WOULDN/T EXPECT
THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE TOO STRONG AND ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE CLOUD BEING ABOVE THE DGZ. DID SLOWLY
DIMINISH THE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE
DEPTH BECOMES SHALLOW AND WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. WITH
THE MODELS SHOWING THE MOISTURE REMAINING BELOW THE STRENGTHENING
INVERSION FROM THE HIGH MOVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WONDERING IF CLOUDS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL). THE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.
STILL LOOKS TO BE A VERY COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLDEST
VALUES OF -10F TO -18F OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AND THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO OVER THE WEST HALF. WOULD EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES
TO WARM OVER THE WEST TOWARDS MORNING AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND
MID CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN UNDER WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. GEM/ECMWF/NAM CONSISTENT ON SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN U.P. WITH THIS WAA ON THURSDAY MORNING. SINCE
THERE HAVE BEEN INDICATIONS OF THIS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL TREND VALUES UP TO CHANCES AND THEN DIMINISH THEM AS
THEY HEAD EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
EARLIER RUNS WERE INDICATING A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN THE ICE CRYSTAL AREA TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. AT THIS POINT...MIGHT
SEE UP TO A HALF INCH TOWARDS IRONWOOD AND THEN DIMINISHING AMOUNTS
HEADING EAST.
BEHIND THIS PRECIPITATION...FOCUS TURNS TO THE LOW CENTERED NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG AT 18Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MODELS STILL DIFFERING ON THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS NOW
WELL OVER THE PACIFIC...WHICH IN-TURN CONTROLS THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FARTHEST NORTH (ALONG WITH RECENT RUNS
OF THE UKMET) AND RUNNING THE LOW ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE
GEM HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN THE TWO OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. ALL
IN ALL...THESE DIFFERENCES WON/T HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN AFFECT ON THE
LAND CWA PRECIPITATION...SINCE THE WAA PRECIP WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST
LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE
LOOKING FOR ANOTHER REALLY WARM DAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AREA WILL SEE
COLDER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE DAY. THUS...EXPECT THE WARMEST
TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO BE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.
WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE ARE ALSO
DIFFERENCES IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
NORTHERLY WINDS. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST ON
FRIDAY BEFORE THIS ARRIVES...WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD SURGE AND WITH SOME GAPS STARTING TO SHOW
IN THE ICE NEAR THE APOSTLE ISLANDS...THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DIFFICULT TO GO
WITH MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS WITH THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER
AND POTENTIAL CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR IDEA AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THAT PUTS CHANCES OVER THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST AREAS IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION TO TRADITIONAL NORTHWEST-NORTHERLY WIND AREAS FOR
SATURDAY. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN AND HAVE
DIMINISHED POPS HEADING INTO SUNDAY (EVENTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS REMAIN
AROUND -17C). WITH THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT...SHOULD BE 10-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES
CLEAR OUT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB ZERO
LOWS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND HAVE TRENDED VALUES DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE CWA. SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SEEMS LIKE A
GOOD START AT THIS POINT...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
COLD SPOTS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST ON MONDAY...BUT IT/S INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN AND KEEP THE AREA
DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH UPPER MI THIS MORNING. THE RETURN OF
COLDER AND MOISTER LOW LEVEL AIR AIDED BY SOME DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN AN MVFR SC DECK AT ALL 3
LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT THIS EVNG MAY BRING SOME SHSN TO THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY AT IWD WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR OVER EVEN LIMITED GAPS IN THE LAKE
SUPERIOR ICE COVER AND UPSLOPE INTO SAW SHOULD PRODUCE SOME -SHSN.
HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT THAT CONDITIONS WILL DROP ANY LOWER THAN
MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH NW TO N WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED INTO WED NIGHT AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE NRN LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20
KNOTS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM JUST TO THE NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGS WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
704 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL FALL WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HRS OF THIS DISCUSSION AS AN IMPRESSIVE FRONTGENETICALLY
DRIVEN BAND OF PRECIP BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO COOL WITH THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...AND THUS THEIR PTYPE ALGORITHMS ARE LIKELY
OVERDOING THE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW TREMENDOUS LIFT ALONG THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONT AS INFERRED FROM
THE SHARP WIND SHIFT WITHIN THE H850-700 LAYER. ASIDE FROM THE
LOWEST FEW HUNDRED METERS THE ENTIRE SOUNDING IS BELOW FREEZING...SO
ANTICIPATING THAT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIX
AROUND 6-7AM...AND THEN QUICKLY OVER TO HEAVY WET SNOW AROUND MID
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.
SNOW RATIOS WILL BE IN THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS...BUT QPF SHOULD EASILY
MANAGE AROUND 0.20 TO 0.30 YIELDING SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES
UNDER THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW. AT THIS POINT THE RAP 11.07 PLACES
THIS HEAVY BAND FROM CANBY MN EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
METRO...AND THEREFORE ALL THE HIRES MODELS THAT USE THE RAP FOR
THEIR INITIAL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS ARE SUBCONSCIOUSLY DRAWN TO THIS
CONCLUSION. HOWEVER...THE H850-700MB FGEN...WHICH AS OF EARLY THIS
MORNING MATCHES UP NICELY WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP...SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
FROM CANBY TO MANKATO AND OWATONNA. BASED ON THAT DIAGNOSTIC
TOOL...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO FALL TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
CURRENT MODEL GENERATED QPF FIELD. AT THIS POINT NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT EXPECT HEAVY WET SNOW
WITH 1/2 TO 1/4 MI VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
LOOKING AHEAD...COLD AIR WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS
IT STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR STORM OVER NEW ENGLAND. CLOSER TO HOME
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN THE NEXT SHOT OF LEE-SIDE WARM AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S ONCE AGAIN...WITH
50S IN WESTERN MN. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF
THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE ST CROIX RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS COLD AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD AND
LASTS INTO NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
BESIDES KRWF...THE SNOW SHOULD LARGELY MISS THE TAF SITES. IT`S
EVEN UNCLEAR HOW MUCH SNOW WILL MIX WITH THE RAIN AT KRWF. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
TODAY WITH THE LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. AIRPORTS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
THE PRECIP CLEARS THE AREA...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN OF MVFR
CEILINGS. OVERALL...WEATHER IMPACTS WILL NOT BE GREAT TODAY EVEN
WITH THE PRECIP MOVING THROUGH.
KMSP...
WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP GOING SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT AND THE
TEMPERATURE HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WE THINK SNOW
IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY TODAY - PERHAPS JUST ONE HOUR OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE THIS MORNING. THE SNOW SHOULDN`T BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE AND IT MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AIRPORT...BUT BASES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 2000 FT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. N WIND 8 KTS BCMG W.
THU...VFR. SW WIND 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. W 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
623 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING ACROSS NERN NEB AROUND 18Z TODAY. THIS
FGEN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY STRONG BAND OF WET SNOW WITH
HOURLY LIQUID RATES OF UP TO 0.10 INCHES. THE NAM RADAR PRODUCT
SHOWS THIS BAND SETTING UP FROM AROUND CHAMBERS TO BROKEN BOW AT
21Z WHICH MOVES QUICKLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z. THE NAM HAS
BEEN WOBBLING SOMEWHAT BUT THE CONCEPT OF FOLDED THETA E AND DEEP
LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE CONTINUES. THE 05Z RAP MODEL
SETS IT UP FROM ONEILL TO SUTHERLAND. THE 00Z ECM FOLLOWS THE NAM
WHICH MATCHES THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
IN GENERAL...THE MODELS ARE CLUSTERING AROUND 0.20 INCHES OF LIQUID
FOR THIS EVENT ALONG HIGHWAY 83 BUT THEN SPREAD OUT TO THE EAST AS
SOME SIGNAL A WETTER EVENT AND OTHERS DRIER. THE MEDIAN QPF IN
CUSTER COUNTY LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.30 INCHES.
GIVEN THE STRONG LIFT DEVELOPING...IT IS EXPECTED THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING LASTING 1 OR 2 HOURS AT
THE MOST. THIS IS ABOUT A 6 HOUR PCPN EVENT WHICH EXITS THE FCST
AREA BY AROUND 00Z. THERE IS A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN BEFORE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW IN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS. H700MB TEMPERATURES COOL
VERY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MARKING THE ONSET OF PCPN AND
DEEP LIFT WILL AID THE DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESS.
AN 8 TO 1 SNOW WATER RATIO WAS USED UP NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WHICH WAS REDUCED TO 5 TO 1 DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND THEN WARM UP
ONCE THE SNOW LETS UP OR ENDS. THIS PRODUCED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WET
SNOW.
THERE IS NO REASON TO UNDER ESTIMATE A SPRING STORM DURING THE 2ND
WEEK OF MARCH AND THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG NORTH WINDS AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALL MODELS SHOW 500M AGL WINDS INCREASING TO OVER
30 KT WHICH TRANSLATES TO 30 MPH AT THE SFC. THE NAM...GFS
GUIDANCE...HRRR AND RAP MODELS ALL SHOW GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH
DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTL NEB NORTH OF THE SFC LOW LOCATED ACROSS KS
BY NOON TODAY. H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 45 TO 55 KT. THE WIND
FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT AND DETERMINISTIC
SOLNS WHICH FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE ROAD. THE GFS AND THE ECM SPREAD
THESE STRONGER WINDS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA TONIGHT. THIS COULD PRODUCE SNOW FLURRIES OR PERHAPS ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND REMAIN MOIST SUPPORTING THIS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
THE SYSTEM BRINGING THE SNOW AND WIND TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND BE PAST THE LOCAL AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL PUT NEBRASKA UNDER SUBSIDENT AIR WEDNESDAY AND WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTING IN EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY...SIGNALS ARE COMING
TOGETHER FOR A BREEZY DAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECONDARY PV MAX
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY...TO HELP
ENHANCE WINDS ALOFT AND WITH STEEP SURFACE TO 700MB LAPSE RATES
CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON BREEZY CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MIXED
LAYER BETWEEN 700MB AND 800MB AND LOOKING AT MAXIMUM WINDS IN THAT
LAYER UP TO 35KTS SO DECIDED TO INCREASE WINDS DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DON/T CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY SO
LOOKING AT AN ADIABATIC PROFILE...HIGHS WOULD BE IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY A BIT COOL FOR
TEMPERATURES AND WITH SUNNY SKIES THINK MOST AREAS WILL WARM A BIT
MORE THAN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE INDICATING.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS NO SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS ARE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL STAY FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THURSDAY
AS IT WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW AMPLIFIED THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE...WHICH
IMPACTS HOW STRONG THE SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME AND THEN HOW MUCH
WARM AIR CAN BE PULLED NORTHWARD. TOOK A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S AND 60S. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A BIT STRONGER...TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED FOR THURSDAY.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS NEBRASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ON
WHERE THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS...IT DOES APPEAR
FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT IT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH STAYING NEAR THE LOW
CENTER...FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR WOULD NEED A MOISTURE SOURCE
FROM THE SOUTH TO GET THIS TO HAPPEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY PROHIBIT MUCH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. ONE THING THAT
DOES LOOK POSSIBLE IS STRONG WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE AREA
STAYING IN A LOCATION WITH DRY AIR...WHEN THE AIRMASS BECOMES
SUBSIDENT BEHIND THE FRONT...DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE PROMOTED.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS NIGHT...WHICH ISN/T AS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER
WINDS...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS TIME-FRAME IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CONCERNING WINDS.
THE MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEGINNING SATURDAY AS THEY SEEM
TO BE HAVING PROBLEMS HANDLING THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW. ONE THING
THEY DO ALL AGREE ON IS THAT STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD
IN...SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THEY ALSO ARE INDICATING THE PATTERN
ALOFT BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED AND DIG A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH ALONG
THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. CONTINUE TO
HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH BOTH
RAIN AND SNOW LOOKING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN ON SATURDAY...THEN SWITCHING TO RAIN/SNOW
AND SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK TO RAIN ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY NOT
BE REAL LIKELY...AS THERE WON/T BE THAT GREAT AMOUNT OF TIME WITH
RAIN AND SNOW...BUT WITH CONCERN OVER TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION...DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE YET TO NAIL DOWN A
PARTICULAR PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS INTERESTING...WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PASS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE PRETTY STRONG...WHICH COULD LEAD TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY...THEN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...AND STRONG WINDS TUESDAY. DIDN/T GO TOO WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE ON FORECASTING
THE HIGHS THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW AT THIS TIME IS QUITE
LOW...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
AS A STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WIND
350-020 AT 17-27G30-35KT. BY 00Z...THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS
GUSTINESS WITH SUSTAINED WIND DECREASING TO 12KT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW...IS EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 14Z
AND WILL SPREAD TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 17Z. VISIBILITY
AS LOW AS 1/2SM CAN BE EXPECTED WITH CEILING 700-1500 FEET AGL. SNOW
WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT
/7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ025>029-036>038-057>059-069>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1018 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
HAVE UPDATED TO CUT EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS...LARGELY FOR LACK OF
COOLING BUT ALSO FOR LESS PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST CORNER...THAT IS NORTHWEST IOWA AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN
STATE BORDER. THE WEAKNESS OF THE COOLING IS ALLOWING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO FALL ONLY IN THE AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...AND
THERE IS NOT MUCH OF THAT GOING TO BE LEFT. THE EXCEPTION IS FROM
NORTH OF BROOKINGS INTO LINCOLN COUNTY MN WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS...BUT EVEN THERE THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE OUT SOON. A REPORT FROM MARSHALL MINNESOTA INDICATED
0.37 INCH OF PRECIPITATION AND NO SNOW. HAVE ALSO CUT
PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT FOR THIS EVENING FAR SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DO NOTHING EXCITING WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
STIFF NORTHERLY BREEZE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY AS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. AS OF 4 AM THIS BAND IS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
14. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH A STRONG AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
DECENT INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONT...THUS NOT SURPRISED BY THE HIGH
REFLECTIVITY CURRENTLY ON RADAR. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE
WARM...AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPE IS CURRENTLY RAIN. THIS FIRST
AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS SOUTH THIS MORNING...BUT ALSO BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. THIS OCCURS AS THE MAIN WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH THE BEST QG FORCING SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THUS
MAKES SENSE THAT WE SEE FRONTOGENESIS INTENSIFY AGAIN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AS MODELS SHOW. SO EXPECT WE SEE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
BAND ALONG HIGHWAY 14 SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH...THEN INTENSIFY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
AS THE FRONT STRENGTHENS AND INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER WAVE. PRETTY
LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH THE BAND WEAKENS THIS MORNING...AND
HOW QUICKLY IT INTENSIFIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IMPORTANT NOT
ONLY FOR QPF...BUT ALSO PRECIPITATION TYPE.
IF PRECIPITATION STAYS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...IT WILL LIKELY STAY
MAINLY RAIN. ONLY EXPECTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DUE TO DYNAMIC
COOLING IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. SO IF THIS HEAVIER BAND
WEAKENS ENOUGH...OUR SNOW FORECAST COULD BE IN TROUBLE. THE LATEST
06Z NAM AND HRRR AND RAP DO SHOW THIS MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. EVEN AS THE BAND INTENSIFIES SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER COULD BE WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS RAIN...OR JUST A WET NON ACCUMULATING SNOW. SO
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE ARW AND NAM FOR TIMING...WITH THE BAND
IMPACTING INTERSTATE 90 MID TO LATE MORNING...AND NORTHWEST IOWA
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT...AND AS A SECONDARY WAVE DROP SOUTH...COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
RUNS DID SHIFT THIS SNOW SHOWER AREA FURTHER WEST FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CENTERED MORE BETWEEN THE JAMES RIVER AND INTERSTATE 29
CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE
CANADIAN/GFS AND ECMWF. OPTED TO EXCLUDE THE NAM AS IT SEEMED TO BE
THE OUTLIER IN TERMS OF THE PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS AND SEEMED TO BE
SLOWER THAN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. MODELS SUGGEST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER
APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS VARY FROM
SOLUTION TO SOLUTION...BUT IN GENERAL...ALL HINT AT ONLY A LIMITED
AMOUNT OF THE DENDRITIC LAYER SATURATING AND WITH THE WARMER AIR
BEGINNING TO RETURN IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING DECREASES WITH TIME. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT DROPPED TO FLURRIES IN
THE LATE MORNING IF ANYTHING IS LEFT BY THEN. EXPECT NICE WARMING
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER STRATUS MAY LINGER AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY LIMITING WARMING
POTENTIAL. WARMED HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NICE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN 925 HPA TEMPS WARMING INTO THE
10-13C RANGE.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH MINNESOTA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE
MOST PART...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE WAVE IS FOCUSED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. FRONT WORKS
BACK TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY...WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW EAST OF THE
FRONT. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES APPEAR TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NEAR THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY CREATING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
DEPENDING WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS ON. THE
FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY LEADING TO A
WARMING TREND. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...LEADING A
WARM BUT WINDY DAY. INCREASED WINDS ON MONDAY COMPARED TO THE
GUIDANCE BUT MAY NOT HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
COMPLEX AND MESSY AVIATION DAY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AREA OF RAIN
WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES.
VISIBILITY IS GENERALLY VFR...BUT WOULD EXPECT DROPS INTO THE MVFR
AND IFR RANGE WHEN AND IF SNOW MIXES IN. THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...THUS
KSUX SEEMS TO HAVE TEH GREATEST POTENTIAL OF DROPPING INTO THE LIFR
RANGE IN A HEAVIER SNOW BURST...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS
PRETTY LOW. OTHERWISE IFR TO MVFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY EXPANDING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN TO VFR BEHIND THE
FRONT LATER TODAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS UNCERTAIN. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAY ENTER THE AREA TOWARDS 12Z...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE AROUND KHON.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
645 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY AS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. AS OF 4 AM THIS BAND IS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
14. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH A STRONG AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
DECENT INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONT...THUS NOT SURPRISED BY THE HIGH
REFLECTIVITY CURRENTLY ON RADAR. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE
WARM...AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPE IS CURRENTLY RAIN. THIS FIRST
AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS SOUTH THIS MORNING...BUT ALSO BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. THIS OCCURS AS THE MAIN WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH THE BEST QG FORCING SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THUS
MAKES SENSE THAT WE SEE FRONTOGENESIS INTENSIFY AGAIN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AS MODELS SHOW. SO EXPECT WE SEE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
BAND ALONG HIGHWAY 14 SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH...THEN INTENSIFY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
AS THE FRONT STRENGTHENS AND INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER WAVE. PRETTY
LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH THE BAND WEAKENS THIS MORNING...AND
HOW QUICKLY IT INTENSIFIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IMPORTANT NOT
ONLY FOR QPF...BUT ALSO PRECIPITATION TYPE.
IF PRECIPITATION STAYS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...IT WILL LIKELY STAY
MAINLY RAIN. ONLY EXPECTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DUE TO DYNAMIC
COOLING IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. SO IF THIS HEAVIER BAND
WEAKENS ENOUGH...OUR SNOW FORECAST COULD BE IN TROUBLE. THE LATEST
06Z NAM AND HRRR AND RAP DO SHOW THIS MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. EVEN AS THE BAND INTENSIFIES SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER COULD BE WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS RAIN...OR JUST A WET NON ACCUMULATING SNOW. SO
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE ARW AND NAM FOR TIMING...WITH THE BAND
IMPACTING INTERSTATE 90 MID TO LATE MORNING...AND NORTHWEST IOWA
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT...AND AS A SECONDARY WAVE DROP SOUTH...COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
RUNS DID SHIFT THIS SNOW SHOWER AREA FURTHER WEST FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CENTERED MORE BETWEEN THE JAMES RIVER AND INTERSTATE 29
CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE
CANADIAN/GFS AND ECMWF. OPTED TO EXCLUDE THE NAM AS IT SEEMED TO BE
THE OUTLIER IN TERMS OF THE PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS AND SEEMED TO BE
SLOWER THAN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. MODELS SUGGEST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER
APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS VARY FROM
SOLUTION TO SOLUTION...BUT IN GENERAL...ALL HINT AT ONLY A LIMITED
AMOUNT OF THE DENDRITIC LAYER SATURATING AND WITH THE WARMER AIR
BEGINNING TO RETURN IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING DECREASES WITH TIME. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT DROPPED TO FLURRIES IN
THE LATE MORNING IF ANYTHING IS LEFT BY THEN. EXPECT NICE WARMING
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER STRATUS MAY LINGER AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY LIMITING WARMING
POTENTIAL. WARMED HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NICE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN 925 HPA TEMPS WARMING INTO THE
10-13C RANGE.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH MINNESOTA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE
MOST PART...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE WAVE IS FOCUSED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. FRONT WORKS
BACK TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY...WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW EAST OF THE
FRONT. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES APPEAR TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NEAR THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY CREATING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
DEPENDING WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS ON. THE
FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY LEADING TO A
WARMING TREND. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...LEADING A
WARM BUT WINDY DAY. INCREASED WINDS ON MONDAY COMPARED TO THE
GUIDANCE BUT MAY NOT HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
COMPLEX AND MESSY AVIATION DAY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AREA OF RAIN
WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES.
VISIBILITY IS GENERALLY VFR...BUT WOULD EXPECT DROPS INTO THE MVFR
AND IFR RANGE WHEN AND IF SNOW MIXES IN. THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...THUS
KSUX SEEMS TO HAVE TEH GREATEST POTENTIAL OF DROPPING INTO THE LIFR
RANGE IN A HEAVIER SNOW BURST...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS
PRETTY LOW. OTHERWISE IFR TO MVFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY EXPANDING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN TO VFR BEHIND THE
FRONT LATER TODAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS UNCERTAIN. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAY ENTER THE AREA TOWARDS 12Z...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE AROUND KHON.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1101 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR GAGE OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE. STILL EXPECT A DRYLINE
TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR OUT WEST
AND AREA WINDS INCREASING...THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH GENERALLY
WEST OF I-35/I-35E AND DOES WARRANT THE CURRENT GRASS FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT. IF SUSTAIN WINDS INCREASE ABOVE 20 MPH FOR A FEW
HOURS...THEN WE WOULD LIKELY UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
SOME COUNTIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
ONE MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WOULD BE IF A WILDFIRE STARTED
JUST AHEAD OF FROPA. THIS WOULD CREATE A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION
FOR FIREFIGHTERS DURING INITIAL ATTACK AS THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE FIRE/S MOVEMENT AND PROGRESSION.
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY TIMING LOOKS GOOD AND WILL ONLY MODIFY ITS
WORDING TO CLEARLY STATE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF
THE STRONG WINDS. 75
&&
.AVIATION...
MID CLOUD HAS DISSIPATED OVER METROPLEX AND I CAN NOW SEE THE
STRATUS. ONE PATCH OF IFR CLOUDS IS MOVING NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN METROPLEX...AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR IFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING. WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
INVERSION...FEEL THAT WITH A BIT OF SUN THIS MORNING STRATUS WILL
QUICKLY MIX OUT AND SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
WACO IFR WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT AND TAKE A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS
TO DISSIPATE...THEN THEY WILL ALSO REMAIN VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
STRONG COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED IN AROUND 10 PM/03Z FOR
METROPLEX...AND IT IS MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT WACO WILL SEE IT
DURING THE SAME HOUR. WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AN HOUR
OR TWO AFTER FROPA...BUT FORTUNATELY THEY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH
NORTHWEST AND NOT TOTALLY CROSS TO THE RUNWAYS. WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MORNING...AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. 84
&&
.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SOME VERY LIGHT RAINFALL OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS...EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS A HILLSBORO TO ATHENS
LINE. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WERE ORIENTED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW...ROUGHLY
CENTERED OVER AUSTIN ACCORDING TO 08Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS HOLDING UP IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. 08Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWED RELATIVELY STRONG LEE
SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH 3 HR PRESSURE
FALLS OF AROUND 4 MB NEAR AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF 997
MB OVER THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES.
TODAY...THE PREVIOUS QUICK AFD WAS APPENDED BELOW. IN GENERAL OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED BY A
DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER DANGER
AND STRONG WIND CONCERNS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE PRIMARY
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DRIVING THESE CONDITIONS IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OBSERVED OVER UTAH...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST PER WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OBSERVED A STRONG JET
STREAK IN EXCESS OF 100 KTS AT THE 250 MB LEVEL AT THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH. THIS JET STREAK WAS LIKELY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CONUS ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AIDING IN THE
STRONG LEE SIDE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OBSERVED ACROSS THE OK AND TX
PANHANDLES.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...DRIVING THE SURFACE CYCLONE EAST-SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NORTH TX THIS AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15 TO 20
MPH. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN H850 THERMAL RIDGE ORIENTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL
RIDGE VARIES MODEL TO MODEL. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY FAVORS A STRONGER THERMAL RIDGE...SO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF THE
SPECTRUM OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WENT AHEAD WITH HIGHS JUST ABOVE
90 DEGREES NEAR BRECKENRIDGE AND GRAHAM...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR. TO THE EAST...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
80S TODAY...A BIT FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE DRIEST AIR AND STRONG
THERMAL RIDGE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW.
LOOKING AT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...ASSUMING HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE
MID 80S TO JUST ABOVE 90 DEGREES WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AS
EXPECTED...GRASSY/FINE FUEL TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE WARM THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT SUPPORT AT LEAST A HIGH FIRE
WEATHER DANGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...AND
A GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS
AS A RESULT. CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DEPENDENT UP ON THE STRENGTH OF WINDS AND
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THIS IS PARTLY BECAUSE MODELS
HAVE A PART OF THE ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED VERY
NEAR WICHITA FALLS...GENERALLY REDUCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORCE THAT WOULD OTHERWISE ACCELERATE WINDS THE ADDITIONAL 5 TO 10
MPH NECESSARY TO REACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER IF THE
SURFACE LOW IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH...LIKE THE RAP AND HRRR
ADVERTISED AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION...EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
DANGER MAY BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND A RED FLAG WARNING MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED.
THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR SHOWED A STRONG DRYLINE PUNCH INTO THE
WESTERN CWA...WITH THE DRYLINE PUSHING AS FAR EAST AS A JACKSBORO
TO LAMPASAS LINE BY 21Z. THE HRRR INCREASES WESTERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE TO 20 TO 25 KTS...OR STRONG ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL/EXTREME
FIRE DANGER WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CRASHING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. IF THESE HRRR CONDITIONS ARE
REALIZED...A RED FLAG WARNING WOULD CERTAINLY BE WARRANTED BECAUSE
ANY GRASS-FIRE IGNITED WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT...IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE...TO CONTROL. THIS IS DEFINITELY A WORST CASE
SCENARIO...AND IS NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OTHER GUIDANCE AT THIS
TIME. REGARDLESS...THIS BEARS WATCHING CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS THE HRRR WAS ALSO THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE AT THE
TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION.
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE
EAST THIS EVENING...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. WHILE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT YET...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
VERY FAST MOVING ONCE IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND PICK
UP TO AT LEAST 20 MPH GUSTING ABOVE 30 MPH JUST BEHIND ITS LEADING
EDGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY ABOUT 10 MPH
OR SO AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 MPH...GUSTING TO 45 MPH AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED AT PEAK
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS IS VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME AS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A 50 KT JET AT THE 850 MB LEVEL OVER THE
CWA BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES
55 TO 60 KT JET FROM 09 TO 12Z OVER THE CWA WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.
WENT AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH 1 PM WEDNESDAY AS THIS APPEARED TO BE THE BEST
WINDOW FOR NORTH WINDS EXCEEDING 25 MPH OR GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH.
THE START OR END TIMES OF THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED BY
LATER SHIFTS AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS BETTER RESOLVED.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL START OFF WITH THE WIND
ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT AS NORTH WINDS HOLD UP AROUND 25 MPH
GUSTING TO 40 MPH JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH
TO AROUND 20 MPH JUST AFTER NOON. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE MID 50S WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY SUNNY ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL AT LEAST TAKE SOME OF THE BITE OUT OF THE
COOL...BREEZY AIR. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THIS WILL BRING MANY LOCATIONS DOWN BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF URBANIZED AREAS WHICH WILL STAY
WARMER DUE TO THE ABSORPTION OF SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RELATIVELY
COMPACT BUT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER NORTH TEXAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE
ADVERTISING SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. THINK THE QPF
AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT...ARE STILL OPTIMISTIC BECAUSE TONIGHT`S
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PLOW SOUTH ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...EFFECTIVELY STUNTING OUR PRIMARY MECHANISM TO
RECHARGE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WITH WATER VAPOR.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO ORIGINATE FROM THE
TROUGH THAT SENDS THE STRONG FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND REMAIN
QUASI-STEADY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE MOVING EAST WITH THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ONLY REASON THIS MATTERS AT ALL IS
BECAUSE IT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF SOUTHERN
PACIFIC MOISTURE...SO THE ORIGIN OF THE RAPID MOISTENING OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS A BIT OF A MYSTERY AT
THIS TIME. GRANTED...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG...SO DYNAMIC LIFT...COOLING AND SATURATION FROM THE
BOTTOM UP...IS POSSIBLE.
WENT AHEAD WITH SOME 20 POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN CWA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOURCE REGION
OF MOISTURE FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF POP/QPF FORECAST. IF MOISTURE IS
JUST BEING UNDERESTIMATED IN GENERAL...POPS AND QPF MAY HAVE TO BE
BUMPED WEST IN LATER FORECASTS.
NEXT WEEKEND...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST CONUS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THIS TROUGH OVER
NORTH TX...OR JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN GENERAL...RESULTING
IN A WETTER FORECAST THAN IF THE TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA. YESTERDAY THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAD ALMOST NO ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION...SO IT WAS LARGELY DISCOUNTED. HOWEVER
TODAY...ABOUT HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE WITH THIS
SOLUTION...AND THE OPERATIONAL CANADIAN AND ECMWF HAVE SORT OF
COME ON BOARD AS WELL. /SORT OF/ IS USED BECAUSE THERE ARE SOME
FAIRLY LARGE TIMING AND STRENGTH DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THESE
MODELS.
HOWEVER THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH SEEMS TO BE THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE DICTATING A WET VERSUS DRY FORECAST...SO IT IS
GOOD TO SEE MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AT THIS
TIME. QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT VERY HIGH IN ANY OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...MOSTLY BECAUSE IN ALL SOLUTIONS THE UPPER TROUGH IS
POSITIVELY TILTED UNTIL IT MOVES EAST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.
BUT...BEGGARS CANT BE CHOOSERS...AND WE REALLY NEED SOME RAIN...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WEEKENDS TROUGH
CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/
IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THERE ARE TWO PRIMARY CONCERNS:
1. FIRE WEATHER DANGER WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON.
2. STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WITH REGARDS TO FIRE WEATHER DANGER: WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME. FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE HIGH TO
VERY HIGH WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON. CRITICAL OR
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A JACKSBORO TO LAMPASAS LINE IF WINDS ARE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN
HIGH FIRE DANGER IS HIGH. LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER DANGER IS LOW.
WITH REGARDS TO THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...GUSTING TO 40 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY FROM SUNRISE TO NOON ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THESE STRONG WINDS IS HIGH...THEREFORE A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON ON WEDNESDAY.
A FULL DISCUSSION INCLUDING REASONING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 85 42 57 36 62 / 5 0 0 0 0
WACO, TX 82 41 58 33 60 / 5 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 80 41 54 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 85 39 57 31 63 / 5 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 83 39 56 31 63 / 5 0 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 84 43 57 38 62 / 5 0 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 81 42 57 33 60 / 5 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 81 44 57 35 60 / 5 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 82 42 59 33 60 / 5 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 88 38 56 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
/75
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1030 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.FIRE WEATHER...
BIG CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS ON FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. DUE TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH, OVERNIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WERE VERY POOR FOR LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY CLIMBING UP TO 35%. SEVERAL LOCATIONS EVEN
STAYED BELOW 30% ALL NIGHT. RECOVERIES WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WHERE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES RANGED BETWEEN 50 AND 80%. WHAT THIS ESSENTIALLY
MEANS IS THAT FINE FUEL MOISTURE NEVER HAD A CHANCE TO MOISTEN AT ALL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN VERY LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH LATER TODAY. SPEAKING OF THE COLD FRONT, IT CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM NEAR HILL CITY, KS TO GARDEN CITY, KS TO SPRINGFIELD,
CO. THIS FRONT WILL ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER 11 AM, AND MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
APPROXIMATE COLD FRONT TIMING:
GUYMON: 1 PM
DALHART AND PERRYTON: 1-2 PM
DUMAS, BORGER, AND PAMPA: 3-4 PM
AMARILLO: 4-5 PM
SHAMROCK: 5-6 PM
HEREFORD: 6-7 PM
ONE OF THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARKS IS HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAW RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MARGINAL WINDS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA. HOWEVER, PREFER
THE HIGHER MET AND MAV WINDS (WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST) AS
MOS GUIDANCE TENDS TO DO RELATIVELY WELL ON THESE DOWNSLOPE WIND
DAYS. WILL LEAVE THE RED FLAG WARNING IN TACT, BUT OUR HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR SEEING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SOUTH
OF A CLAYTON TO CANADIAN LINE.
THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF FUEL MOISTURE OVER THE LAST MONTH IS
CLEARLY SEEN IN TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC)
DATA. AFTER LAST WEEK`S MOISTURE, WE HAVE QUICKLY DRIED OUT AGAIN. IN
FACT, FORECAST ERC VALUES TODAY ARE 67 AT BOOTLEG, 62 AT CEDAR, AND
60 AT WHEELER. THESE VALUES ARE GETTING VERY CLOSE TO THE 90%
PERCENTILE, AT WHICH LOCAL RESEARCH SUGGESTS SIGNIFICANT FIRE
POTENTIAL BECOMES AN INCREASING CONCERN. WITH THESE DRYING FUELS AND
A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, IT`S NOT A BIG
SURPRISE THAT WE SAW A SLIGHT UPTICK IN INITIAL ATTACK ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY. TFS SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL MATRICES SHOW A MODERATE TO
NEAR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE AXIS OF A BROAD 850 MB THERMAL
RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE ALIGNMENT OF THE STRONGEST
LOW-/MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
AXIS. IT IS ALSO IN THESE LOCATIONS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS HIGHER FIRE DANGER PER
LOCAL RESEARCH. THEREFORE, BASED ON FUELS AND WEATHER, THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (AND THEY ARE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE) OF SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF A HEREFORD TO
HAPPY LINE. DESPITE THIS, FIRE OFFICIALS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS
SHOULD REMAIN ON HEIGHTENED ALERT, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
(GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH) BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BE OF UTMOST IMPORTANCE IN THE EVENT OF ANY FIRE
STARTS OR ONGOING FIRES BEFORE THEN!
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...WEST WINDS INITIALLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS
OF 30-35 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND
INCREASING TO NEAR 35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KTS POSSIBLE. SOME
VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM BLDU BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ANY BLDU...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KAMA FROM 22Z
TODAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE STRONG WINDS.
KB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING NOW WILL ELONGATE AND
SPLIT AS IT DIVES SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO AND KANSAS TODAY. A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BLAST ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS VERY TIGHT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WYOMING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MILES
AN HOUR ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH GUST TO AROUND 60 MILES AN HOUR
IN SOME SPOTS. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TURNED THE HIGH WIND WATCH INTO
A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ONLY THE FAR EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE IN A WIND ADVISORY. BLOWING
DUST MAY ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO ONE MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MET ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO 15 PERCENT OR BELOW AHEAD
AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE WIND SHIFT AND SUDDEN INCREASE
IN THE WIND WILL ALSO CAUSE UNPREDICTABLE FIRE BEHAVIOR SHOULD A
FIRE START.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD BE BELOW 20 MPH
BY MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS STILL WANT TO PAINT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE PANHANDLES WILL ARRIVE BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHEAST ON THE EAST SIDE
OF A WEST COAST RIDGE AND IT INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AGAIN...THE MODELS WANT CHANGE THEIR TUNE
SINCE IT IS A NEW DAY. THEREFORE...WILL NOT INSERT ANY PRECIP FOR
LATE NEXT WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GET DOWN INTO THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
START TO RECOVER SOME BEHIND A COLD ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MID AFTERNOON...
BUT WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SO ANY
ONGOING FIRES COULD HAVE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR DUE TO THE SHIFTING
WINDS WITH THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEY
WILL BE BELOW 15 MPH BY AROUND MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...
HEMPHILL...WHEELER.
OK...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
700 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.AVIATION...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY. PATCHY BLDU MAY CAUSE LOCAL VSBY REDUCTIONS. THIS
EVENING...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS COULD APPROACH 30 KTS AT EITHER OR BOTH
TERMINALS AND REQUIRE AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING. ALSO...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER DUST CONCENTRATIONS WHICH COULD
RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS AT KLBB. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THE DUST WILL SETTLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE STAGE IS SET FOR A EARLY SPRING STRONG WIND/BLOWING DUST AND
FIRE WEATHER EVENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. 3 AM SAT IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR
ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ROUGHLY EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...PLACING THE CWA ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
MID-LVL JET MAX WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A WEAK
SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM A LOW IN FAR NE COLO THROUGH THE WRN
PANHANDLES INTO ERN NM WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST TODAY. TIGHTENING
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE WEST THEN
W-NW. FINALLY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO NRN COLO AND WRN
NE...THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF STRONG WINDS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...MORE ON THAT LATER.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING...THE WEST
TEXAS SODAR AT REESE CENTER ALREADY SHOWS 30+ KTS AT 500 FT AGL.
WHILE WE DO HAVE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN CWA
THIS MORNING...UNFORTUNATELY...THIS MOISTURE WILL BE SCOURED OUT
QUICKLY AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
NOON /SEE DISCUSSION BELOW/. IN GENERAL...WE EXPECT WINDS TO RISE
INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SLIGHTLY
LOWER IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SLIGHTLY MORE ACROSS THE W-SW.
THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BUT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LOFT SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST. TEMPS WILL
BE QUITE WARM FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...PERHAPS PUSHING 90F IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS...WHILE CAA
COMING IN FROM THE NW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE FAR
SW TX PANHANDLE AND WRN SPLNS.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BARRELING SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. WHILE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT/S PROGRESS WILL BE
QUICKER IN THE EAST...LAGGING IN THE WEST...THERE IS STILL A FEW
HOURS OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. WE ARE FAVORING
THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP AND THE TTU-WRF...WHICH SHOWS THE
FRONT ENTERING CHILDRESS COUNTY AROUND 23 UTC...AND PARMER COUNTY
AROUND 00 UTC. BUT OF COURSE THE ACTUAL FROPA COULD VARY A COUPLE
HOURS EITHER WAY. AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA
/SUSTAINED SPEED OF AT LEAST 40 MPH AND/OR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 57
MPH/ ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA. WE ARE A LITTLE SKEPTICAL THAT
WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS IN THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS...BUT WE ARE PLANNING ON EXTENDING THE HIGH WIND WATCH SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK....WITH SOLID ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SOMEWHAT INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS PROGGED IN
THE 800-700MB WIND FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AROUND 0Z. THIS
SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE OVERALL FCST BUT DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...IT COULD LEAD TO A SHORT-DURATION LULL
IN GUSTY WINDS BEFORE A BIG INCREASE WITH THE FROPA.
AS FOR BLOWING DUST...WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CONCENTRATION OF DIRT AND
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT WE DON/T HAVE ANY STRONG INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO ADVISORY OR DUST STORM LEVELS. THIS IS
PARTLY DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION AND OUR EXPECTATION THAT THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER PEAK MIXING. IF THE FRONT IS FASTER/STRONGER
THAN EXPECTED...THEN DENSE BLOWING DUST MAY BE A GREATER CONCERN.
LONG TERM...
AFTER THE ACTIVE SHORT TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST SEEMS RELATIVELY
BENIGN BY COMPARISON. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES SQUARELY OVER WEST TEXAS. IT WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER BEHIND THIS EVENINGS FROPA...WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY TOPPING OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW MID-MARCH AVERAGES.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY WHICH WHEN COUPLED
WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE AND
RENEWED SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MEAN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR AVERAGE.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN WEST TO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT WILL HANG
OUT OVER THE GREAT BASIN MID-WEEK. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GET KICKED
EASTWARD LATE WEEK AS JET ENERGY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DO CONTINUE
TO PAINT POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT QPF SOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR THE CWA.
GIVEN THIS SIGNAL...WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN STILL APPEARS
LOW AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT. THE TIMING
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PASSING WAVE DOES ALSO CREATE LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON WHEN THE ASSOCIATED FROPA WILL OCCUR. A QUICKER SYSTEM/FRONT
COULD MEAN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH EITHER WAY THE SYSTEM WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH COOL AIR TO WORK WITH.
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL START OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. AT A MINIMUM...THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD HELP
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LESS CERTAIN IS EXACTLY
WHAT LONGITUDE THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES AND THUS WHETHER OR NOT IT
CAN BRING A WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTH PLAINS.
THE MOST RECENT ECMWF HAS TRENDED BACK FURTHER WEST AND
WETTER...WHILE THE GFS TRACK IS MORE EASTWARD WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE
DRY FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS. WE HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS AROUND 10
PERCENT FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT TO MAKE A MOVE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER UNTIL
THE NWP CAN COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. REGARDLESS...WARMER AND
DRY WEATHER SHOULD KICK OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS AND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW REDEVELOPS.
FIRE WEATHER...
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTH PLAINS AREA TODAY AND WE WILL EXPAND
AND UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR WHOLE CWA.
DESPITE HIGH RH VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...VERY DRY AIR WILL SPREAD EAST RESULTING
IN RH VALUES DROPPING UNDER 15 PERCENT BY 10 AM FOR MANY AREAS...AND
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
WIND SPEEDS MAY BE ON THE LOW END OF CRITERIA ACROSS THE ERN ROLLING
PLAINS...IT APPEARS THAT WIND SPEEDS AND RH VALUES WILL SUPPORT AN
EXTREMELY CRITICAL DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS. WINDS MAY RELAX FOR A PERIOD AROUND 6 TO 7 PM...BUT
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING WILL BRING AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND MUCH STRONGER WINDS SPEEDS.
ALTHOUGH COOLING TEMPS AND RISING RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO REDUCE
THE FIRE DANGER...WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
9 PM CDT DUE TO THIS STRONG FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 71 25 52 24 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 76 28 54 25 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 77 29 55 26 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 78 30 54 26 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 81 32 56 29 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 80 31 55 25 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 81 33 56 26 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 83 34 58 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 85 35 58 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 88 36 58 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
&&
$$
33/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
624 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.AVIATION...
MID CLOUD HAS DISSIPATED OVER METROPLEX AND I CAN NOW SEE THE
STRATUS. ONE PATCH OF IFR CLOUDS IS MOVING NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN METROPLEX...AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR IFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING. WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
INVERSION...FEEL THAT WITH A BIT OF SUN THIS MORNING STRATUS WILL
QUICKLY MIX OUT AND SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
WACO IFR WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT AND TAKE A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS
TO DISSIPATE...THEN THEY WILL ALSO REMAIN VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
STRONG COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED IN AROUND 10 PM/03Z FOR
METROPLEX...AND IT IS MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT WACO WILL SEE IT
DURING THE SAME HOUR. WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AN HOUR
OR TWO AFTER FROPA...BUT FORTUNATELY THEY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH
NORTHWEST AND NOT TOTALLY CROSS TO THE RUNWAYS. WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MORNING...AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. 84
&&
.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SOME VERY LIGHT RAINFALL OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS...EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS A HILLSBORO TO ATHENS
LINE. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WERE ORIENTED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW...ROUGHLY
CENTERED OVER AUSTIN ACCORDING TO 08Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS HOLDING UP IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. 08Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWED RELATIVELY STRONG LEE
SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH 3 HR PRESSURE
FALLS OF AROUND 4 MB NEAR AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF 997
MB OVER THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES.
TODAY...THE PREVIOUS QUICK AFD WAS APPENDED BELOW. IN GENERAL OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED BY A
DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER DANGER
AND STRONG WIND CONCERNS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE PRIMARY
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DRIVING THESE CONDITIONS IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OBSERVED OVER UTAH...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST PER WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OBSERVED A STRONG JET
STREAK IN EXCESS OF 100 KTS AT THE 250 MB LEVEL AT THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH. THIS JET STREAK WAS LIKELY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CONUS ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AIDING IN THE
STRONG LEE SIDE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OBSERVED ACROSS THE OK AND TX
PANHANDLES.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...DRIVING THE SURFACE CYCLONE EAST-SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NORTH TX THIS AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15 TO 20
MPH. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN H850 THERMAL RIDGE ORIENTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL
RIDGE VARIES MODEL TO MODEL. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY FAVORS A STRONGER THERMAL RIDGE...SO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF THE
SPECTRUM OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WENT AHEAD WITH HIGHS JUST ABOVE
90 DEGREES NEAR BRECKENRIDGE AND GRAHAM...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR. TO THE EAST...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
80S TODAY...A BIT FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE DRIEST AIR AND STRONG
THERMAL RIDGE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW.
LOOKING AT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...ASSUMING HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE
MID 80S TO JUST ABOVE 90 DEGREES WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AS
EXPECTED...GRASSY/FINE FUEL TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE WARM THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT SUPPORT AT LEAST A HIGH FIRE
WEATHER DANGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...AND
A GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS
AS A RESULT. CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DEPENDENT UP ON THE STRENGTH OF WINDS AND
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THIS IS PARTLY BECAUSE MODELS
HAVE A PART OF THE ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED VERY
NEAR WICHITA FALLS...GENERALLY REDUCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORCE THAT WOULD OTHERWISE ACCELERATE WINDS THE ADDITIONAL 5 TO 10
MPH NECESSARY TO REACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER IF THE
SURFACE LOW IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH...LIKE THE RAP AND HRRR
ADVERTISED AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION...EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
DANGER MAY BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND A RED FLAG WARNING MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED.
THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR SHOWED A STRONG DRYLINE PUNCH INTO THE
WESTERN CWA...WITH THE DRYLINE PUSHING AS FAR EAST AS A JACKSBORO
TO LAMPASAS LINE BY 21Z. THE HRRR INCREASES WESTERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE TO 20 TO 25 KTS...OR STRONG ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL/EXTREME
FIRE DANGER WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CRASHING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. IF THESE HRRR CONDITIONS ARE
REALIZED...A RED FLAG WARNING WOULD CERTAINLY BE WARRANTED BECAUSE
ANY GRASS-FIRE IGNITED WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT...IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE...TO CONTROL. THIS IS DEFINITELY A WORST CASE
SCENARIO...AND IS NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OTHER GUIDANCE AT THIS
TIME. REGARDLESS...THIS BEARS WATCHING CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS THE HRRR WAS ALSO THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE AT THE
TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION.
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE
EAST THIS EVENING...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. WHILE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT YET...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
VERY FAST MOVING ONCE IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND PICK
UP TO AT LEAST 20 MPH GUSTING ABOVE 30 MPH JUST BEHIND ITS LEADING
EDGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY ABOUT 10 MPH
OR SO AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 MPH...GUSTING TO 45 MPH AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED AT PEAK
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS IS VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME AS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A 50 KT JET AT THE 850 MB LEVEL OVER THE
CWA BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES
55 TO 60 KT JET FROM 09 TO 12Z OVER THE CWA WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.
WENT AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH 1 PM WEDNESDAY AS THIS APPEARED TO BE THE BEST
WINDOW FOR NORTH WINDS EXCEEDING 25 MPH OR GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH.
THE START OR END TIMES OF THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED BY
LATER SHIFTS AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS BETTER RESOLVED.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL START OFF WITH THE WIND
ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT AS NORTH WINDS HOLD UP AROUND 25 MPH
GUSTING TO 40 MPH JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH
TO AROUND 20 MPH JUST AFTER NOON. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE MID 50S WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY SUNNY ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL AT LEAST TAKE SOME OF THE BITE OUT OF THE
COOL...BREEZY AIR. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THIS WILL BRING MANY LOCATIONS DOWN BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF URBANIZED AREAS WHICH WILL STAY
WARMER DUE TO THE ABSORPTION OF SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RELATIVELY
COMPACT BUT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER NORTH TEXAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE
ADVERTISING SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. THINK THE QPF
AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT...ARE STILL OPTIMISTIC BECAUSE TONIGHT`S
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PLOW SOUTH ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...EFFECTIVELY STUNTING OUR PRIMARY MECHANISM TO
RECHARGE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WITH WATER VAPOR.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO ORIGINATE FROM THE
TROUGH THAT SENDS THE STRONG FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND REMAIN
QUASI-STEADY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE MOVING EAST WITH THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ONLY REASON THIS MATTERS AT ALL IS
BECAUSE IT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF SOUTHERN
PACIFIC MOISTURE...SO THE ORIGIN OF THE RAPID MOISTENING OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS A BIT OF A MYSTERY AT
THIS TIME. GRANTED...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG...SO DYNAMIC LIFT...COOLING AND SATURATION FROM THE
BOTTOM UP...IS POSSIBLE.
WENT AHEAD WITH SOME 20 POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN CWA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOURCE REGION
OF MOISTURE FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF POP/QPF FORECAST. IF MOISTURE IS
JUST BEING UNDERESTIMATED IN GENERAL...POPS AND QPF MAY HAVE TO BE
BUMPED WEST IN LATER FORECASTS.
NEXT WEEKEND...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST CONUS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THIS TROUGH OVER
NORTH TX...OR JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN GENERAL...RESULTING
IN A WETTER FORECAST THAN IF THE TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA. YESTERDAY THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAD ALMOST NO ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION...SO IT WAS LARGELY DISCOUNTED. HOWEVER
TODAY...ABOUT HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE WITH THIS
SOLUTION...AND THE OPERATIONAL CANADIAN AND ECMWF HAVE SORT OF
COME ON BOARD AS WELL. /SORT OF/ IS USED BECAUSE THERE ARE SOME
FAIRLY LARGE TIMING AND STRENGTH DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THESE
MODELS.
HOWEVER THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH SEEMS TO BE THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE DICTATING A WET VERSUS DRY FORECAST...SO IT IS
GOOD TO SEE MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AT THIS
TIME. QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT VERY HIGH IN ANY OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...MOSTLY BECAUSE IN ALL SOLUTIONS THE UPPER TROUGH IS
POSITIVELY TILTED UNTIL IT MOVES EAST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.
BUT...BEGGARS CANT BE CHOOSERS...AND WE REALLY NEED SOME RAIN...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WEEKENDS TROUGH
CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/
IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THERE ARE TWO PRIMARY CONCERNS:
1. FIRE WEATHER DANGER WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON.
2. STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WITH REGARDS TO FIRE WEATHER DANGER: WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME. FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE HIGH TO
VERY HIGH WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON. CRITICAL OR
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A JACKSBORO TO LAMPASAS LINE IF WINDS ARE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN
HIGH FIRE DANGER IS HIGH. LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER DANGER IS LOW.
WITH REGARDS TO THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...GUSTING TO 40 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY FROM SUNRISE TO NOON ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THESE STRONG WINDS IS HIGH...THEREFORE A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON ON WEDNESDAY.
A FULL DISCUSSION INCLUDING REASONING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 85 42 57 36 62 / 5 0 0 0 0
WACO, TX 82 41 58 33 60 / 5 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 80 41 54 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 85 39 57 31 63 / 5 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 83 39 56 31 63 / 5 0 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 84 43 57 38 62 / 5 0 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 81 42 57 33 60 / 5 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 81 44 57 35 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 82 42 59 33 60 / 5 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 88 38 56 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1006 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS PLAINS...
REACHED DENVER AT 15Z. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT...CURRENTLY
GUSTING IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE. WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...WITH RUC AND HRRR INDICATING GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY SEEMS REASONABLE FOR LINCOLN COUNTY. AT THIS
TIME...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. AS FOR SNOW
...MOUNTAIN AREAS SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY
BE A BIT OF A DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MOVES OVER THE AREA. BUT A GOOD BATCH OF MOISTURE OVER WYOMING
SHOULD SPREAD BACK INTO THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS WITH ROUGHLY 3 TO 6 INCHES...NO
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. ACROSS PLAINS...SNOWING LIGHTLY NORTH OF
THE BORDER AT CHEYENNE AND KIMBLE. RADAR SHOWING SOME ECHOES
ACROSS NORTHERN LARIMER COUNTY NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. SHOULD SEE
THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY MOISTEN. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATING A 1 OR 2 INCH SNOWFALL FOR THE
DENVER AREA WITH AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE.
INITIALLY THE SNOW SHOULD MELT BEFORE ANY ACCUMULATION OCCURS.
LESS ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE DUE TO DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. BLOWING
SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG WIND AND ACCUMULATION. DON`T THINK
AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
PALMER DIVIDE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE INITIAL MELTING EXPECTED.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF ONE WILL BE NEEDED. SNOW TO END
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
AIRMASS. OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST LOOK REASONABLE WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO TIMING OF FRONT.
.AVIATION...FRONT MOVING ACROSS DIA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING
TO 28 KTS. FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO KBJC AND KAPA WITHIN THE
NEXT ONE HALF HOUR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING
TO 25 TO 30 KTS. SOME GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW TO DEVELOP BY 18Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW EXPECTED
TO END BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z WITH DECREASING WINDS. AT THIS TIME THE
FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT KAPA COULD RECEIVE
AROUND 3 INCHES IF CONVECTION IS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED. STILL
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...FOG OR LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014/
SHORT TERM...STILL A COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. BUT COLD...STRONG WINDS...AND SNOW STILL ON THE WAY.
PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS PER LATEST OBS. MAIN COLD FRONT HAD JUST PUSHED THROUGH
CASPER WYOMING SO THATS ON TRACK TO REACH THE BORDER SHORTLY
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND DENVER METRO AROUND 9 AM. BIG SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASING...SO
A SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 40 TO 55
MPH...STRONGEST ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. LOCATIONS AROUND LINCOLN
COUNTY HAVE BEEN DRIER THERE RECENTLY THAN ANYWHERE ELSE SO
BLOWING DUST WILL BE A CONCERN BEFORE ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE ISSUED A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY THERE.
WITH REGARD TO SNOWFALL...MOUNTAINS WERE ALREADY SEEING ONE BATCH
OF SNOW...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY DECREASE A BIT EARLY THIS MORNING
AS SOME TEMPORARILY DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT PER UPSTREAM OBS. LOW/MID
LEVELS ARE INITIALLY DRY...SO LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
WITHIN ABOUT 2-4 HOURS OF FRONTAL ARRIVAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR ALMOST ALL SNOW AND WILL GET COLDER THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIP. SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
COLD POOL NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND WYOMING...WHICH WILL
REACH THE FRONT RANGE BY 18Z. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE AND COLD
POOL ALOFT MEANS A MOISTENING AIRMASS WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES...SO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THERE. OVERALL...THINK THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL HELP OFFSET THE SPARSE MODEL QPF. ADDED
A LITTLE MORE SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT AND BETTER
MOISTURE THERE...WHILE CUT BACK AMOUNTS ON THE DOWNSLOPE SIDE OF
THE CHEYENNE RIDGE GIVEN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. DENVER
AREA STILL EXPECTED TO SEE A 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR HIGHER OR LOWER AMOUNTS BASED ON CONVECTIVE
NATURE. THE MOST FAVORED LOCATION FOR SNOW IN THIS FLOW PATTERN
WOULD BE FOOTHILLS OF JEFFERSON/DOUGLAS COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE
PALMER DIVIDE...SO WILL GO WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2-5 INCHES
POSSIBLE THERE. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS...ALSO MENTIONED AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW WHERE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE STORM TOTALS MOSTLY IN THE
3-6 INCH RANGE.
SNOW WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS AIRMASS DRIES AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. SKIES
WILL THEN CLEAR OUT FOR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
LONG TERM...MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
INCLUDE GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER AS A WESTERN U.S. RIDGE
PRODUCES WARM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER COLORADO. ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE HELD OVER COLORADO WHILE A
WEAK...CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA TO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. OUR REGION WILL BE LEFT UNDER THE DEFORMATION REGION WITH
WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER FEATURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY KICK OUT ONTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY ABOUT FRIDAY WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL IMPACT
ON NORTHERN COLORADO WEATHER. FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE STATE AS
THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS. LATER ON SATURDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SLIDE OVER
THE STATE. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND MAY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE PLAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. EACH OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE VARIOUS IDEAS ON
THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CUTOFF LOW EJECTING AND SUBSEQUENT
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO. FOR NOW HAVE FAVORED THE
GFS SOLUTION...AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF LOOK A LITTLE TOO FAST.
BEYOND THAT...MORE WESTERN U.S. RIDGING IS FORECAST WITH SUBSIDENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER COLORADO. DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RESULT.
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WERE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TOO WARM GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND CONSERVATIVE GENERALLY
CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS FROM ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. FORECASTING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ON THE PLAINS IS GOING TO BE CHALLENGING AND
DEPEND ON THE TIME OF DAY OR NIGHT WHEN THE WEATHER SYSTEMS PASS
OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN LIQUID FORM WHILE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME PERIODS WILL FAVOR SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX.
AVIATION...STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE FRONT RANGE
AIRPORTS AROUND 15Z...PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER AT KDEN. SOME STRATUS
AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN
SNOW WILL BECOME LIKELY BY 18Z-21Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS LIKELY FROM ALMOST DUE NORTH. SNOW WILL
END BY 00Z-01Z WITH WINDS DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY BY THEN AS
WELL. FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS MOST LIKELY TO SEE 1-2 INCH SNOW
TOTALS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AT KAPA IF
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ046-047.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
247 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1234 PM CDT
WINTER STORM UPDATE...
CONTINUING TO ASSESS 12Z MODEL DATA FOR IMPENDING WINTER STORM.
SURFACE OBSERVATION ANALYSIS SHOWS 996 MB LOW IN CENTRAL KS
ROUGHLY BETWEEN SLN AND HUT...NORTH OF LATEST RUN OF RAP MODEL.
TRENDS SO FAR SUPPORT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW IN GOING FORECAST
AND HAVENT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THIS YET...WITH ONLY TWEAKS TO LATE
AFTERNOON POPS AS BAROCLINIC ZONE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND RAIN
COMMENCES IN FAR NORTHERN CWA. RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY FLIP OVER TO
SNOW THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH.
OF BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE SNOW LATE TONIGHT IS THE BAND OF VERY
STRONG 850-700 MB FGEN OVERLAID BY NEGATIVE EPV...AS WELL AS THE
PRESENCE OF 50-100 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THIS HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS AND RATES OF 2 INCHES PLUS PER HOUR
WHEREVER THIS SETS UP. KEEPING TOTALS IN CHECK WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WITH MIDLEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
OPEN...SO WOULD ONLY EXPECT A FEW HOUR PERIOD WITH THE REALLY
HEAVY RATES IN ANY GIVEN AREA. NONETHELESS...COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED TOTALS TO OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE 8 INCHES IN WARNING
AREA...WITH THIS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY ALONG AND A BIT EAST
OF I-55 CORRIDOR.
LIKELY BECAUSE OF BANDING POTENTIAL...HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SHOWING
A VERY SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP IN NORTHERN CWA...AND THINK THIS IS
OVERDONE...BUT THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT IN SNOW AMOUNTS ROUGHLY IN
LINE WITH GOING FORECAST. FARTHER SOUTH IN WATCH
AREA...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OVER HOW FAST CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR AND
HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AFTER CHANGEOVER...SO WILL MAKE A
DECISION ON HEADLINE FOR SOUTHEAST CWA WITH AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.
FINALLY...WINDS REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN AS WELL LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS TO 40+ MPH. THIS WILL EXACERBATE IMPACTS TO WEDS AM COMMUTE
EVEN AS SNOW WINDS DOWN.
RC/JEE
//PREV DISCUSSION...
343 AM CDT
THE TASTE OF SPRING YESTERDAY IS TRULY IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR AS
THE FORECAST FOCUS WAS ON WINTER STORM SET TO IMPACT THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING
CENTERED ON THE I-80 CORRIDOR...AND THAT INCLUDES CHICAGO...FOR THE
COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...SNOW TOTALS AROUND SIX INCHES...AND WIND WHIPPED SNOW
GREATLY REDUCING VISIBILITY. CONTINUE THE WATCH SOUTH OF THERE AND
AN ADVISORY TO THE NORTH.
THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW IS WELL-DEFINED THIS MORNING ACROSS WYOMING
AND ADVANCING SOUTHEAST WITH OVER 200M HEIGHT FALLS AT 300MB SAMPLED
LAST EVE. SECOND KEY SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM MANITOBA.
THE PHASING OF THESE SYSTEMS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS OFTEN SEEN
WITH PHASING SYSTEMS...FORCING FOR LIFT AND HEAVY PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TONIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS HAD SOME
PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCES AND THAT CONTINUED INTO THE 11.00Z AND
11.06Z CYCLES...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ALL GUIDANCE
DEPICT ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL AND THAT ARE
CONSISTENT WITH A PHASING SYSTEM. HAVE PREFERRED THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
SOLUTION OF MASS FIELDS AND TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE MRF AND LOCAL
HIGH RES MODELS IDEAS OF MESOSCALE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AND
TIMING. BELIEVE THE MRF IS A LITTLE TOO ROBUST AND WIDESPREAD
WITH ITS HEAVIEST QPF...BUT AGAIN THE IDEA OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING SIX INCHES IN AN AREA IS SUPPORTED.
TODAY...
THIS STILL LOOKS MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A VERY
SHARP MID-LEVEL STATIONARY FRONT SAMPLED ON LAST EVES RAOBS BECOMING
MORE ACTIVE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGHS. EARLY MORNING RADAR
MOSAIC INDICATES PRECIP FROM SD THROUGH WESTERN WI. THIS SHOULD ONLY
INCH SOUTHWARD GRADUALLY TODAY. FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FROM EVEN THE
MOST SOUTH HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP RAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. STILL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND WITH NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF CYCLOGENESIS IN
THE PLAINS...EXPECT THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL START TO LEVEL
OUT AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY FALL. ONSHORE
FLOW INTO CHICAGO OFF THE ICE-COVERED LAKE MAY LEAD TO A MORE RAPID
FALL DOWNTOWN.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...
IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED PHASING...MAXIMUM HEIGHT FALLS ARE
CENTERED DIRECTLY ON THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIFT RAPIDLY INCREASING.
THIS WILL EVOLVE THE LOW-LEVEL FEATURES EASTWARD WITH COPIOUS
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTH OF A 40-45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. PRECIP FROM
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH...WHILE NEW PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP JUST WEST OR OVER THE AREA THIS EVE. THE DEGREE OF
FORCING AND COOL ADVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM
WILL HELP TO COOL THE COLUMN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR A TRANSITION OF
RAIN TO SNOW...AND THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING THE MID EVE
INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE MOST ROBUST FORCING MOVES IN. WOULD
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS MAY JUST BEGIN AS SNOW OR
EXPERIENCE A VERY SHORT MIX. AS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80...A COUPLE/SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF RAIN WILL BE LIKELY FIRST
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WET SNOW LATE THIS EVE INTO EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THAT TIME PERIOD AFTER TRANSITION AND INTO OVERNIGHT IS
MOST FAVORED FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL...WITH UPRIGHT INSTABILITY FORECAST
BY GLOBAL MODELS TO REACH INTO THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA...WHICH
LINES UP WITH THE DEEPEST CONVERGENCE AND FOCUS NEAR I-80. THE
11.03Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF OVER ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES
ARE TO 70 PERCENT WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE AND MAKE SENSE...AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPORARY TWO INCH PER HOUR OR HIGHER RATES LATE
THIS EVE INTO OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS LOOK TO REALLY RAMP UP OVERNIGHT
AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH 45 KT OF NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE NAM
AND GFS AT 1000-2000 FT. EVEN WITH THE WET SNOW...EXPECT THAT THE
BLOWING OF THE FALLING SNOW WILL CAUSE EVEN FURTHER REDUCED
VISIBILITY...AND EVEN TEMPORARY WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
OF SNOWFALL RATES.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME PRETTY SOLID RATES COULD STILL BE OCCURRING IN
EASTERN AREAS...INCLUDING POSSIBLY CHICAGO INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF
THE MORNING COMMUTE. UNCERTAINTY ON END TIME OF SNOWFALL IS FAIRLY
HIGH...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AND SO EXPECT IMPACTS...AND
THAT MAY BE ESPECIALLY TRUE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE WHERE THE WIND COULD
GUST TO 40-45 MPH. THAT IS WHY RUN HEADLINES THROUGH NOON.
WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE...AS DEPICTED BY MIXING RATIOS OF 4-6 G/KG
AND PWATS OF AROUND 0.75 IN...THERE SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A
PROBLEM WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MAXIMUM AREA TOPPING SIX
INCHES...EVEN WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND LOW
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 8 INCHES IN
ISOLATED AREAS...BUT AGAIN LIMITED DURATION SHOULD PREVENT THAT FROM
BEING TOO WIDESPREAD.
HEADLINES...
GIVEN RATES AND BLOWING OF THE FALLING SNOW...WITH BASICALLY A
DOWNPOUR OF SNOW WITH CONCURRENT GUSTS OF 30+ MPH...HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH A WARNING FOR THE AREA WITH THE LONGEST DURATION OF SNOW....EVEN
THOUGH NOT EVERYWHERE WILL SEE SIX PLUS INCHES OF SNOW.
UNCERTAINTY OF SNOW DURATION IN THE FAR SOUTH LED TO CONTINUING
THE WATCH. FURTHER NORTH HAVE AN ADVISORY...AND DID NOT INCLUDE
ROCKFORD BECAUSE IT LOOKS LIKE SNOWFALL SHOULD HAVE ENDED BY MUCH
OF IF NOT THE ENTIRE WED MORNING COMMUTE. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NORTHERN END OF HEADLINES ARE MADE TODAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
PRETTY CHILLY WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
IF THE SKY CAN REMAIN CLEAR THE LOWS MAY BE WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF
RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 13TH.
MTF
EXTENDED FORECAST...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
210 PM CDT...
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL BE A PAIR OF
CLIPPER DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN ALBERTA AND TRACKING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. PERIODS OF WARMING WILL PRECEDE THE
CLIPPERS WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FOLLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST
CLIPPER WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER 50S AHEAD OF THE SECOND CLIPPER. THERE MAY AND UP BEING SOME
TIMING CHANGES WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENTS...BUT THE GENERAL SIGNAL IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
PERIOD FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST CLIPPER WHICH WILL BRING
BACK A DIP INTO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE RANGES. AS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACKS
OF THE CLIPPERS...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL
TRACK TO FAR NORTH TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. SO...WILL CARRY DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY WITH
THE FROPA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST CLIPPER.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTS OF
30-35 KT LIKELY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* RAIN/SNOW MIX BY MID EVENING...RAPIDLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW
SOON THERE AFTER.
* RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN SNOW WITH VIS/CEILINGS
FALLING TO LIFR/VLIFR.
* PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VIS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
* BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VFR CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND IN PLACE OVER THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE AREA. WINDS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST GUSTS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS BETTER FORCING
ARRIVES THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR SOON THERE
AFTER...WITH THESE CEILINGS THEN LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL SPREAD OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING BUT
EXPECT A RAPID CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BASICALLY WITHIN AN HOUR OF
ONSET. NO REAL CHANGES TO EXPECTED SNOW TONIGHT AND TIMING WITH
THE 6-10Z TIME FRAME STILL THE BEST TIME FOR MORE MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW. HAVE LEFT THE LOWEST VIS AT 1/2 MILE FOR ALL THE
TERMINAL SITES...BUT WITH THEM LIKELY OBSERVING PERIODS OF 1/4
MILE OR EVEN LESS AT TIMES. EXPECT THIS HEAVIER SNOW TO BE MORE
TIED TO CONVECTIVE ASPECTS...WITH UNCERTAINTY TO EXACT TIMING AND
DURATION OF THIS HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
MDW/GYY WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 1/4 MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITY AS WELL AS FOR A LONGER DURATION AS THIS WILL BE A MORE
FAVORED LOCATION FOR THE BEST SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT. BUT ONCE
AGAIN...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT
OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME BUT COULD SEE THIS LOWER VIS IN HEAVY SNOW
ADDED LATER THIS EVENING. BEST SNOW DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXIT THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH A SLOW IMPROVING TREND WITH CEILINGS.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION...AND RESULTANT
BLOWING SNOW.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX TIMING AND CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH VIS/CEILING TRENDS.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH HEAVY SNOW...LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
WITH TIMING/DURATION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...SETTING UP STRONG NORTH WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG
GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO WINDS QUICKLY
INCREASING TO GALES BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END
GALES BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
STRONGEST GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW
GALE FORCE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKE AS A CLIPPER DROPS OUT OF NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SWINGS
JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH
SAGGING OFF THE SERN COAST...A PERIOD OF SWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE CLIPPER.
ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF BRISK SLY TO SWLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MORE GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AS
THE CLIPPER TURNS NEWD INTO QUEBEC...IT WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
DOWN THE LAKE WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. 25-30KT NORTH WINDS WILL SET UP FOLLOWING THE FROPA FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT AS THE HIGH SPREADS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032...10 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ033-ILZ039...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM
WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012...10 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002...10 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM
WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO
1 PM WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
211 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1234 PM CDT
WINTER STORM UPDATE...
CONTINUING TO ASSESS 12Z MODEL DATA FOR IMPENDING WINTER STORM.
SURFACE OBSERVATION ANALYSIS SHOWS 996 MB LOW IN CENTRAL KS
ROUGHLY BETWEEN SLN AND HUT...NORTH OF LATEST RUN OF RAP MODEL.
TRENDS SO FAR SUPPORT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW IN GOING FORECAST
AND HAVENT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THIS YET...WITH ONLY TWEAKS TO LATE
AFTERNOON POPS AS BAROCLINIC ZONE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND RAIN
COMMENCES IN FAR NORTHERN CWA. RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY FLIP OVER TO
SNOW THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH.
OF BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE SNOW LATE TONIGHT IS THE BAND OF VERY
STRONG 850-700 MB FGEN OVERLAID BY NEGATIVE EPV...AS WELL AS THE
PRESENCE OF 50-100 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THIS HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS AND RATES OF 2 INCHES PLUS PER HOUR
WHEREVER THIS SETS UP. KEEPING TOTALS IN CHECK WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WITH MIDLEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
OPEN...SO WOULD ONLY EXPECT A FEW HOUR PERIOD WITH THE REALLY
HEAVY RATES IN ANY GIVEN AREA. NONETHELESS...COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED TOTALS TO OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE 8 INCHES IN WARNING
AREA...WITH THIS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY ALONG AND A BIT EAST
OF I-55 CORRIDOR.
LIKELY BECAUSE OF BANDING POTENTIAL...HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SHOWING
A VERY SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP IN NORTHERN CWA...AND THINK THIS IS
OVERDONE...BUT THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT IN SNOW AMOUNTS ROUGHLY IN
LINE WITH GOING FORECAST. FARTHER SOUTH IN WATCH
AREA...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OVER HOW FAST CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR AND
HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AFTER CHANGEOVER...SO WILL MAKE A
DECISION ON HEADLINE FOR SOUTHEAST CWA WITH AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.
FINALLY...WINDS REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN AS WELL LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS TO 40+ MPH. THIS WILL EXACERBATE IMPACTS TO WEDS AM COMMUTE
EVEN AS SNOW WINDS DOWN.
RC/JEE
//PREV DISCUSSION...
343 AM CDT
THE TASTE OF SPRING YESTERDAY IS TRULY IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR AS
THE FORECAST FOCUS WAS ON WINTER STORM SET TO IMPACT THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING
CENTERED ON THE I-80 CORRIDOR...AND THAT INCLUDES CHICAGO...FOR THE
COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...SNOW TOTALS AROUND SIX INCHES...AND WIND WHIPPED SNOW
GREATLY REDUCING VISIBILITY. CONTINUE THE WATCH SOUTH OF THERE AND
AN ADVISORY TO THE NORTH.
THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW IS WELL-DEFINED THIS MORNING ACROSS WYOMING
AND ADVANCING SOUTHEAST WITH OVER 200M HEIGHT FALLS AT 300MB SAMPLED
LAST EVE. SECOND KEY SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM MANITOBA.
THE PHASING OF THESE SYSTEMS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS OFTEN SEEN
WITH PHASING SYSTEMS...FORCING FOR LIFT AND HEAVY PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TONIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS HAD SOME
PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCES AND THAT CONTINUED INTO THE 11.00Z AND
11.06Z CYCLES...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ALL GUIDANCE
DEPICT ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL AND THAT ARE
CONSISTENT WITH A PHASING SYSTEM. HAVE PREFERRED THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
SOLUTION OF MASS FIELDS AND TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE MRF AND LOCAL
HIGH RES MODELS IDEAS OF MESOSCALE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AND
TIMING. BELIEVE THE MRF IS A LITTLE TOO ROBUST AND WIDESPREAD
WITH ITS HEAVIEST QPF...BUT AGAIN THE IDEA OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING SIX INCHES IN AN AREA IS SUPPORTED.
TODAY...
THIS STILL LOOKS MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A VERY
SHARP MID-LEVEL STATIONARY FRONT SAMPLED ON LAST EVES RAOBS BECOMING
MORE ACTIVE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGHS. EARLY MORNING RADAR
MOSAIC INDICATES PRECIP FROM SD THROUGH WESTERN WI. THIS SHOULD ONLY
INCH SOUTHWARD GRADUALLY TODAY. FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FROM EVEN THE
MOST SOUTH HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP RAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. STILL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND WITH NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF CYCLOGENESIS IN
THE PLAINS...EXPECT THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL START TO LEVEL
OUT AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY FALL. ONSHORE
FLOW INTO CHICAGO OFF THE ICE-COVERED LAKE MAY LEAD TO A MORE RAPID
FALL DOWNTOWN.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...
IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED PHASING...MAXIMUM HEIGHT FALLS ARE
CENTERED DIRECTLY ON THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIFT RAPIDLY INCREASING.
THIS WILL EVOLVE THE LOW-LEVEL FEATURES EASTWARD WITH COPIOUS
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTH OF A 40-45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. PRECIP FROM
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH...WHILE NEW PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP JUST WEST OR OVER THE AREA THIS EVE. THE DEGREE OF
FORCING AND COOL ADVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM
WILL HELP TO COOL THE COLUMN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR A TRANSITION OF
RAIN TO SNOW...AND THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING THE MID EVE
INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE MOST ROBUST FORCING MOVES IN. WOULD
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS MAY JUST BEGIN AS SNOW OR
EXPERIENCE A VERY SHORT MIX. AS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80...A COUPLE/SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF RAIN WILL BE LIKELY FIRST
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WET SNOW LATE THIS EVE INTO EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THAT TIME PERIOD AFTER TRANSITION AND INTO OVERNIGHT IS
MOST FAVORED FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL...WITH UPRIGHT INSTABILITY FORECAST
BY GLOBAL MODELS TO REACH INTO THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA...WHICH
LINES UP WITH THE DEEPEST CONVERGENCE AND FOCUS NEAR I-80. THE
11.03Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF OVER ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES
ARE TO 70 PERCENT WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE AND MAKE SENSE...AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPORARY TWO INCH PER HOUR OR HIGHER RATES LATE
THIS EVE INTO OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS LOOK TO REALLY RAMP UP OVERNIGHT
AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH 45 KT OF NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE NAM
AND GFS AT 1000-2000 FT. EVEN WITH THE WET SNOW...EXPECT THAT THE
BLOWING OF THE FALLING SNOW WILL CAUSE EVEN FURTHER REDUCED
VISIBILITY...AND EVEN TEMPORARY WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
OF SNOWFALL RATES.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME PRETTY SOLID RATES COULD STILL BE OCCURRING IN
EASTERN AREAS...INCLUDING POSSIBLY CHICAGO INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF
THE MORNING COMMUTE. UNCERTAINTY ON END TIME OF SNOWFALL IS FAIRLY
HIGH...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AND SO EXPECT IMPACTS...AND
THAT MAY BE ESPECIALLY TRUE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE WHERE THE WIND COULD
GUST TO 40-45 MPH. THAT IS WHY RUN HEADLINES THROUGH NOON.
WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE...AS DEPICTED BY MIXING RATIOS OF 4-6 G/KG
AND PWATS OF AROUND 0.75 IN...THERE SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A
PROBLEM WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MAXIMUM AREA TOPPING SIX
INCHES...EVEN WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND LOW
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 8 INCHES IN
ISOLATED AREAS...BUT AGAIN LIMITED DURATION SHOULD PREVENT THAT FROM
BEING TOO WIDESPREAD.
HEADLINES...
GIVEN RATES AND BLOWING OF THE FALLING SNOW...WITH BASICALLY A
DOWNPOUR OF SNOW WITH CONCURRENT GUSTS OF 30+ MPH...HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH A WARNING FOR THE AREA WITH THE LONGEST DURATION OF SNOW....EVEN
THOUGH NOT EVERYWHERE WILL SEE SIX PLUS INCHES OF SNOW.
UNCERTAINTY OF SNOW DURATION IN THE FAR SOUTH LED TO CONTINUING
THE WATCH. FURTHER NORTH HAVE AN ADVISORY...AND DID NOT INCLUDE
ROCKFORD BECAUSE IT LOOKS LIKE SNOWFALL SHOULD HAVE ENDED BY MUCH
OF IF NOT THE ENTIRE WED MORNING COMMUTE. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NORTHERN END OF HEADLINES ARE MADE TODAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
PRETTY CHILLY WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
IF THE SKY CAN REMAIN CLEAR THE LOWS MAY BE WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF
RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 13TH.
MTF
EXTENDED FORECAST...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
210 PM CDT...
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL BE A PAIR OF
CLIPPER DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN ALBERTA AND TRACKING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. PERIODS OF WARMING WILL PRECEDE THE
CLIPPERS WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FOLLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST
CLIPPER WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER 50S AHEAD OF THE SECOND CLIPPER. THERE MAY AND UP BEING SOME
TIMING CHANGES WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENTS...BUT THE GENERAL SIGNAL IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
PERIOD FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST CLIPPER WHICH WILL BRING
BACK A DIP INTO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE RANGES. AS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACKS
OF THE CLIPPERS...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL
TRACK TO FAR NORTH TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. SO...WILL CARRY DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY WITH
THE FROPA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST CLIPPER.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTS OF
30-35 KT LIKELY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* RAIN/SNOW MIX BY MID EVENING...RAPIDLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW
SOON THERE AFTER.
* RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN SNOW WITH VIS/CEILINGS
FALLING TO LIFR/VLIFR.
* PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VIS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
* BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VFR CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND IN PLACE OVER THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE AREA. WINDS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST GUSTS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS BETTER FORCING
ARRIVES THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR SOON THERE
AFTER...WITH THESE CEILINGS THEN LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL SPREAD OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING BUT
EXPECT A RAPID CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BASICALLY WITHIN AN HOUR OF
ONSET. NO REAL CHANGES TO EXPECTED SNOW TONIGHT AND TIMING WITH
THE 6-10Z TIME FRAME STILL THE BEST TIME FOR MORE MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW. HAVE LEFT THE LOWEST VIS AT 1/2 MILE FOR ALL THE
TERMINAL SITES...BUT WITH THEM LIKELY OBSERVING PERIODS OF 1/4
MILE OR EVEN LESS AT TIMES. EXPECT THIS HEAVIER SNOW TO BE MORE
TIED TO CONVECTIVE ASPECTS...WITH UNCERTAINTY TO EXACT TIMING AND
DURATION OF THIS HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
MDW/GYY WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 1/4 MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITY AS WELL AS FOR A LONGER DURATION AS THIS WILL BE A MORE
FAVORED LOCATION FOR THE BEST SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT. BUT ONCE
AGAIN...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT
OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME BUT COULD SEE THIS LOWER VIS IN HEAVY SNOW
ADDED LATER THIS EVENING. BEST SNOW DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXIT THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH A SLOW IMPROVING TREND WITH CEILINGS.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION...AND RESULTANT
BLOWING SNOW.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX TIMING AND CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH VIS/CEILING TRENDS.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH HEAVY SNOW...LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
WITH TIMING/DURATION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...SETTING UP STRONG NORTH WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG
GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO WINDS QUICKLY
INCREASING TO GALES BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END
GALES BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
STRONGEST GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW
GALE FORCE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKE AS A CLIPPER DROPS OUT OF NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SWINGS
JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH
SAGGING OFF THE SERN COAST...A PERIOD OF SWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE CLIPPER.
ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF BRISK SLY TO SWLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MORE GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AS
THE CLIPPER TURNS NEWD INTO QUEBEC...IT WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
DOWN THE LAKE WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. 25-30KT NORTH WINDS WILL SET UP FOLLOWING THE FROPA FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT AS THE HIGH SPREADS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032...10 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012...10 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WATCH...ILZ033-ILZ039...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM
WEDNESDAY.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002...10 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM
WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WATCH...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1
PM WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868...3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
125 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1234 PM CDT
WINTER STORM UPDATE...
CONTINUING TO ASSESS 12Z MODEL DATA FOR IMPENDING WINTER STORM.
SURFACE OBSERVATION ANALYSIS SHOWS 996 MB LOW IN CENTRAL KS
ROUGHLY BETWEEN SLN AND HUT...NORTH OF LATEST RUN OF RAP MODEL.
TRENDS SO FAR SUPPORT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW IN GOING FORECAST
AND HAVENT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THIS YET...WITH ONLY TWEAKS TO LATE
AFTERNOON POPS AS BAROCLINIC ZONE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND RAIN
COMMENCES IN FAR NORTHERN CWA. RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY FLIP OVER TO
SNOW THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH.
OF BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE SNOW LATE TONIGHT IS THE BAND OF VERY
STRONG 850-700 MB FGEN OVERLAID BY NEGATIVE EPV...AS WELL AS THE
PRESENCE OF 50-100 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THIS HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS AND RATES OF 2 INCHES PLUS PER HOUR
WHEREVER THIS SETS UP. KEEPING TOTALS IN CHECK WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WITH MIDLEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
OPEN...SO WOULD ONLY EXPECT A FEW HOUR PERIOD WITH THE REALLY
HEAVY RATES IN ANY GIVEN AREA. NONETHELESS...COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED TOTALS TO OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE 8 INCHES IN WARNING
AREA...WITH THIS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY ALONG AND A BIT EAST
OF I-55 CORRIDOR.
LIKELY BECAUSE OF BANDING POTENTIAL...HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SHOWING
A VERY SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP IN NORTHERN CWA...AND THINK THIS IS
OVERDONE...BUT THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT IN SNOW AMOUNTS ROUGHLY IN
LINE WITH GOING FORECAST. FARTHER SOUTH IN WATCH
AREA...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OVER HOW FAST CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR AND
HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AFTER CHANGEOVER...SO WILL MAKE A
DECISION ON HEADLINE FOR SOUTHEAST CWA WITH AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.
FINALLY...WINDS REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN AS WELL LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS TO 40+ MPH. THIS WILL EXACERBATE IMPACTS TO WEDS AM COMMUTE
EVEN AS SNOW WINDS DOWN.
RC/JEE
//PREV DISCUSSION...
343 AM CDT
THE TASTE OF SPRING YESTERDAY IS TRULY IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR AS
THE FORECAST FOCUS WAS ON WINTER STORM SET TO IMPACT THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING
CENTERED ON THE I-80 CORRIDOR...AND THAT INCLUDES CHICAGO...FOR THE
COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...SNOW TOTALS AROUND SIX INCHES...AND WIND WHIPPED SNOW
GREATLY REDUCING VISIBILITY. CONTINUE THE WATCH SOUTH OF THERE AND
AN ADVISORY TO THE NORTH.
THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW IS WELL-DEFINED THIS MORNING ACROSS WYOMING
AND ADVANCING SOUTHEAST WITH OVER 200M HEIGHT FALLS AT 300MB SAMPLED
LAST EVE. SECOND KEY SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM MANITOBA.
THE PHASING OF THESE SYSTEMS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS OFTEN SEEN
WITH PHASING SYSTEMS...FORCING FOR LIFT AND HEAVY PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TONIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS HAD SOME
PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCES AND THAT CONTINUED INTO THE 11.00Z AND
11.06Z CYCLES...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ALL GUIDANCE
DEPICT ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL AND THAT ARE
CONSISTENT WITH A PHASING SYSTEM. HAVE PREFERRED THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
SOLUTION OF MASS FIELDS AND TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE MRF AND LOCAL
HIGH RES MODELS IDEAS OF MESOSCALE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AND
TIMING. BELIEVE THE MRF IS A LITTLE TOO ROBUST AND WIDESPREAD
WITH ITS HEAVIEST QPF...BUT AGAIN THE IDEA OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING SIX INCHES IN AN AREA IS SUPPORTED.
TODAY...
THIS STILL LOOKS MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A VERY
SHARP MID-LEVEL STATIONARY FRONT SAMPLED ON LAST EVES RAOBS BECOMING
MORE ACTIVE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGHS. EARLY MORNING RADAR
MOSAIC INDICATES PRECIP FROM SD THROUGH WESTERN WI. THIS SHOULD ONLY
INCH SOUTHWARD GRADUALLY TODAY. FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FROM EVEN THE
MOST SOUTH HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP RAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. STILL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND WITH NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF CYCLOGENESIS IN
THE PLAINS...EXPECT THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL START TO LEVEL
OUT AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY FALL. ONSHORE
FLOW INTO CHICAGO OFF THE ICE-COVERED LAKE MAY LEAD TO A MORE RAPID
FALL DOWNTOWN.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...
IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED PHASING...MAXIMUM HEIGHT FALLS ARE
CENTERED DIRECTLY ON THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIFT RAPIDLY INCREASING.
THIS WILL EVOLVE THE LOW-LEVEL FEATURES EASTWARD WITH COPIOUS
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTH OF A 40-45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. PRECIP FROM
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH...WHILE NEW PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP JUST WEST OR OVER THE AREA THIS EVE. THE DEGREE OF
FORCING AND COOL ADVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM
WILL HELP TO COOL THE COLUMN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR A TRANSITION OF
RAIN TO SNOW...AND THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING THE MID EVE
INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE MOST ROBUST FORCING MOVES IN. WOULD
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS MAY JUST BEGIN AS SNOW OR
EXPERIENCE A VERY SHORT MIX. AS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80...A COUPLE/SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF RAIN WILL BE LIKELY FIRST
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WET SNOW LATE THIS EVE INTO EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THAT TIME PERIOD AFTER TRANSITION AND INTO OVERNIGHT IS
MOST FAVORED FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL...WITH UPRIGHT INSTABILITY FORECAST
BY GLOBAL MODELS TO REACH INTO THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA...WHICH
LINES UP WITH THE DEEPEST CONVERGENCE AND FOCUS NEAR I-80. THE
11.03Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF OVER ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES
ARE TO 70 PERCENT WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE AND MAKE SENSE...AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPORARY TWO INCH PER HOUR OR HIGHER RATES LATE
THIS EVE INTO OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS LOOK TO REALLY RAMP UP OVERNIGHT
AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH 45 KT OF NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE NAM
AND GFS AT 1000-2000 FT. EVEN WITH THE WET SNOW...EXPECT THAT THE
BLOWING OF THE FALLING SNOW WILL CAUSE EVEN FURTHER REDUCED
VISIBILITY...AND EVEN TEMPORARY WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
OF SNOWFALL RATES.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME PRETTY SOLID RATES COULD STILL BE OCCURRING IN
EASTERN AREAS...INCLUDING POSSIBLY CHICAGO INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF
THE MORNING COMMUTE. UNCERTAINTY ON END TIME OF SNOWFALL IS FAIRLY
HIGH...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AND SO EXPECT IMPACTS...AND
THAT MAY BE ESPECIALLY TRUE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE WHERE THE WIND COULD
GUST TO 40-45 MPH. THAT IS WHY RUN HEADLINES THROUGH NOON.
WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE...AS DEPICTED BY MIXING RATIOS OF 4-6 G/KG
AND PWATS OF AROUND 0.75 IN...THERE SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A
PROBLEM WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MAXIMUM AREA TOPPING SIX
INCHES...EVEN WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND LOW
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 8 INCHES IN
ISOLATED AREAS...BUT AGAIN LIMITED DURATION SHOULD PREVENT THAT FROM
BEING TOO WIDESPREAD.
HEADLINES...
GIVEN RATES AND BLOWING OF THE FALLING SNOW...WITH BASICALLY A
DOWNPOUR OF SNOW WITH CONCURRENT GUSTS OF 30+ MPH...HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH A WARNING FOR THE AREA WITH THE LONGEST DURATION OF SNOW....EVEN
THOUGH NOT EVERYWHERE WILL SEE SIX PLUS INCHES OF SNOW.
UNCERTAINTY OF SNOW DURATION IN THE FAR SOUTH LED TO CONTINUING
THE WATCH. FURTHER NORTH HAVE AN ADVISORY...AND DID NOT INCLUDE
ROCKFORD BECAUSE IT LOOKS LIKE SNOWFALL SHOULD HAVE ENDED BY MUCH
OF IF NOT THE ENTIRE WED MORNING COMMUTE. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NORTHERN END OF HEADLINES ARE MADE TODAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
PRETTY CHILLY WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
IF THE SKY CAN REMAIN CLEAR THE LOWS MAY BE WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF
RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 13TH.
MTF
EXTENDED PERIOD...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE
MAIN STORY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY FEATURE
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE CONUS...AND BELOW AVERAGE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
DURING MUCH OF THE EXTEND PERIOD.
IT APPEARS FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. A CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZE...BUT
MILD...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM INTO THE 50S...BUT ANY REMAINING SNOW COVER FROM THE
SNOWFALL TONIGHT MAY HINDER THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMING SOME.
THIS WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
SPILL BACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
COLDER AIR PUSH FRIDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT DECENT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING
THIS TIME. IN SPITE OF THIS...I HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY AT THIS TIME.
A VERY ACTIVE JET ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DRIVE
DISTURBANCES EASTWARD ATOP A BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE INTO NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THESE
DISTURBANCES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE ACTUALLY TRACK. WITH
THIS IN MIND...I HAVE LEFT SOME LOW END POPS IN FOR LATER IN THE
WEEKEND.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTS OF
30-35 KT LIKELY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* RAIN/SNOW MIX BY MID EVENING...RAPIDLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW
SOON THERE AFTER.
* RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN SNOW WITH VIS/CEILINGS
FALLING TO LIFR/VLIFR.
* PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VIS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
* BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VFR CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND IN PLACE OVER THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS APPROACHING LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE AREA. WINDS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST GUSTS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS BETTER FORCING
ARRIVES THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR SOON THERE
AFTER...WITH THESE CEILINGS THEN LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL SPREAD OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING BUT
EXPECT A RAPID CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BASICALLY WITHIN AN HOUR OF
ONSET. NO REAL CHANGES TO EXPECTED SNOW TONIGHT AND TIMING WITH
THE 6-10Z TIME FRAME STILL THE BEST TIME FOR MORE MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW. HAVE LEFT THE LOWEST VIS AT 1/2 MILE FOR ALL THE
TERMINAL SITES...BUT WITH THEM LIKELY OBSERVING PERIODS OF 1/4
MILE OR EVEN LESS AT TIMES. EXPECT THIS HEAVIER SNOW TO BE MORE
TIED TO CONVECTIVE ASPECTS...WITH UNCERTAINTY TO EXACT TIMING AND
DURATION OF THIS HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
MDW/GYY WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 1/4 MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITY AS WELL AS FOR A LONGER DURATION AS THIS WILL BE A MORE
FAVORED LOCATION FOR THE BEST SNOWFALL DEVELOPMENT. BUT ONCE
AGAIN...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT
OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME BUT COULD SEE THIS LOWER VIS IN HEAVY SNOW
ADDED LATER THIS EVENING. BEST SNOW DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXIT THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH A SLOW IMPROVING TREND WITH CEILINGS.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION...AND RESULTANT
BLOWING SNOW.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX TIMING AND CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH VIS/CEILING TRENDS.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH HEAVY SNOW...LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
WITH TIMING/DURATION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
330 AM...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
EAST TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT
REACHES NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS
THIS LOW PASSES SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH NORTHERLY WINDS STEADILY
INCREASING FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GALES
APPEAR TO BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AND INCREASE TO 45 KTS OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. OTHER THAN TWEAKING WIND SPEEDS/
GUSTS UP...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST/GRIDS OR
HEADLINES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
WINDS THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY SHOWS SOME OPEN WATER IN THE
ILLINOIS NEARSHORE ZONES AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXPECTED
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...ICE IN THE OPEN WATERS IS EXPECTED TO BE
PUSHED BACK TO THE ILLINOIS SHORE TONIGHT. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032...10 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012...10 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WATCH...ILZ033-ILZ039...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM
WEDNESDAY.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002...10 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM
WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WATCH...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1
PM WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868...3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1234 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1234 PM CDT
WINTER STORM UPDATE...
CONTINUING TO ASSESS 12Z MODEL DATA FOR IMPENDING WINTER STORM.
SURFACE OBSERVATION ANALYSIS SHOWS 996 MB LOW IN CENTRAL KS
ROUGHLY BETWEEN SLN AND HUT...NORTH OF LATEST RUN OF RAP MODEL.
TRENDS SO FAR SUPPORT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW IN GOING FORECAST
AND HAVENT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THIS YET...WITH ONLY TWEAKS TO LATE
AFTERNOON POPS AS BAROCLINIC ZONE STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND RAIN
COMMENCES IN FAR NORTHERN CWA. RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY FLIP OVER TO
SNOW THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH.
OF BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE SNOW LATE TONIGHT IS THE BAND OF VERY
STRONG 850-700 MB FGEN OVERLAID BY NEGATIVE EPV...AS WELL AS THE
PRESENCE OF 50-100 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THIS HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS AND RATES OF 2 INCHES PLUS PER HOUR
WHEREVER THIS SETS UP. KEEPING TOTALS IN CHECK WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WITH MIDLEVEL TROUGH REMAINING
OPEN...SO WOULD ONLY EXPECT A FEW HOUR PERIOD WITH THE REALLY
HEAVY RATES IN ANY GIVEN AREA. NONETHELESS...COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED TOTALS TO OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE 8 INCHES IN WARNING
AREA...WITH THIS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY ALONG AND A BIT EAST
OF I-55 CORRIDOR.
LIKELY BECAUSE OF BANDING POTENTIAL...HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SHOWING
A VERY SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP IN NORTHERN CWA...AND THINK THIS IS
OVERDONE...BUT THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT IN SNOW AMOUNTS ROUGHLY IN
LINE WITH GOING FORECAST. FARTHER SOUTH IN WATCH
AREA...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OVER HOW FAST CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR AND
HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AFTER CHANGEOVER...SO WILL MAKE A
DECISION ON HEADLINE FOR SOUTHEAST CWA WITH AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.
FINALLY...WINDS REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN AS WELL LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS TO 40+ MPH. THIS WILL EXACERBATE IMPACTS TO WEDS AM COMMUTE
EVEN AS SNOW WINDS DOWN.
RC/JEE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
343 AM CDT
THE TASTE OF SPRING YESTERDAY IS TRULY IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR AS
THE FORECAST FOCUS WAS ON WINTER STORM SET TO IMPACT THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING
CENTERED ON THE I-80 CORRIDOR...AND THAT INCLUDES CHICAGO...FOR THE
COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...SNOW TOTALS AROUND SIX INCHES...AND WIND WHIPPED SNOW
GREATLY REDUCING VISIBILITY. CONTINUE THE WATCH SOUTH OF THERE AND
AN ADVISORY TO THE NORTH.
THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW IS WELL-DEFINED THIS MORNING ACROSS WYOMING
AND ADVANCING SOUTHEAST WITH OVER 200M HEIGHT FALLS AT 300MB SAMPLED
LAST EVE. SECOND KEY SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM MANITOBA.
THE PHASING OF THESE SYSTEMS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS OFTEN SEEN
WITH PHASING SYSTEMS...FORCING FOR LIFT AND HEAVY PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TONIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS HAD SOME
PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCES AND THAT CONTINUED INTO THE 11.00Z AND
11.06Z CYCLES...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ALL GUIDANCE
DEPICT ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL AND THAT ARE
CONSISTENT WITH A PHASING SYSTEM. HAVE PREFERRED THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
SOLUTION OF MASS FIELDS AND TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE MRF AND LOCAL
HIGH RES MODELS IDEAS OF MESOSCALE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AND
TIMING. BELIEVE THE MRF IS A LITTLE TOO ROBUST AND WIDESPREAD
WITH ITS HEAVIEST QPF...BUT AGAIN THE IDEA OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING SIX INCHES IN AN AREA IS SUPPORTED.
TODAY...
THIS STILL LOOKS MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A VERY
SHARP MID-LEVEL STATIONARY FRONT SAMPLED ON LAST EVES RAOBS BECOMING
MORE ACTIVE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGHS. EARLY MORNING RADAR
MOSAIC INDICATES PRECIP FROM SD THROUGH WESTERN WI. THIS SHOULD ONLY
INCH SOUTHWARD GRADUALLY TODAY. FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FROM EVEN THE
MOST SOUTH HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP RAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. STILL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND WITH NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF CYCLOGENESIS IN
THE PLAINS...EXPECT THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL START TO LEVEL
OUT AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY FALL. ONSHORE
FLOW INTO CHICAGO OFF THE ICE-COVERED LAKE MAY LEAD TO A MORE RAPID
FALL DOWNTOWN.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...
IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED PHASING...MAXIMUM HEIGHT FALLS ARE
CENTERED DIRECTLY ON THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIFT RAPIDLY INCREASING.
THIS WILL EVOLVE THE LOW-LEVEL FEATURES EASTWARD WITH COPIOUS
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTH OF A 40-45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. PRECIP FROM
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH...WHILE NEW PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP JUST WEST OR OVER THE AREA THIS EVE. THE DEGREE OF
FORCING AND COOL ADVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM
WILL HELP TO COOL THE COLUMN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR A TRANSITION OF
RAIN TO SNOW...AND THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING THE MID EVE
INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE MOST ROBUST FORCING MOVES IN. WOULD
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS MAY JUST BEGIN AS SNOW OR
EXPERIENCE A VERY SHORT MIX. AS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80...A COUPLE/SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF RAIN WILL BE LIKELY FIRST
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WET SNOW LATE THIS EVE INTO EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THAT TIME PERIOD AFTER TRANSITION AND INTO OVERNIGHT IS
MOST FAVORED FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL...WITH UPRIGHT INSTABILITY FORECAST
BY GLOBAL MODELS TO REACH INTO THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA...WHICH
LINES UP WITH THE DEEPEST CONVERGENCE AND FOCUS NEAR I-80. THE
11.03Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF OVER ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES
ARE TO 70 PERCENT WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE AND MAKE SENSE...AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPORARY TWO INCH PER HOUR OR HIGHER RATES LATE
THIS EVE INTO OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS LOOK TO REALLY RAMP UP OVERNIGHT
AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH 45 KT OF NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE NAM
AND GFS AT 1000-2000 FT. EVEN WITH THE WET SNOW...EXPECT THAT THE
BLOWING OF THE FALLING SNOW WILL CAUSE EVEN FURTHER REDUCED
VISIBILITY...AND EVEN TEMPORARY WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
OF SNOWFALL RATES.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME PRETTY SOLID RATES COULD STILL BE OCCURRING IN
EASTERN AREAS...INCLUDING POSSIBLY CHICAGO INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF
THE MORNING COMMUTE. UNCERTAINTY ON END TIME OF SNOWFALL IS FAIRLY
HIGH...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AND SO EXPECT IMPACTS...AND
THAT MAY BE ESPECIALLY TRUE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE WHERE THE WIND COULD
GUST TO 40-45 MPH. THAT IS WHY RUN HEADLINES THROUGH NOON.
WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE...AS DEPICTED BY MIXING RATIOS OF 4-6 G/KG
AND PWATS OF AROUND 0.75 IN...THERE SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A
PROBLEM WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MAXIMUM AREA TOPPING SIX
INCHES...EVEN WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND LOW
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 8 INCHES IN
ISOLATED AREAS...BUT AGAIN LIMITED DURATION SHOULD PREVENT THAT FROM
BEING TOO WIDESPREAD.
HEADLINES...
GIVEN RATES AND BLOWING OF THE FALLING SNOW...WITH BASICALLY A
DOWNPOUR OF SNOW WITH CONCURRENT GUSTS OF 30+ MPH...HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH A WARNING FOR THE AREA WITH THE LONGEST DURATION OF SNOW....EVEN
THOUGH NOT EVERYWHERE WILL SEE SIX PLUS INCHES OF SNOW.
UNCERTAINTY OF SNOW DURATION IN THE FAR SOUTH LED TO CONTINUING
THE WATCH. FURTHER NORTH HAVE AN ADVISORY...AND DID NOT INCLUDE
ROCKFORD BECAUSE IT LOOKS LIKE SNOWFALL SHOULD HAVE ENDED BY MUCH
OF IF NOT THE ENTIRE WED MORNING COMMUTE. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NORTHERN END OF HEADLINES ARE MADE TODAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
PRETTY CHILLY WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
IF THE SKY CAN REMAIN CLEAR THE LOWS MAY BE WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF
RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 13TH.
MTF
EXTENDED PERIOD...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE
MAIN STORY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY FEATURE
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE CONUS...AND BELOW AVERAGE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
DURING MUCH OF THE EXTEND PERIOD.
IT APPEARS FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. A CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZE...BUT
MILD...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM INTO THE 50S...BUT ANY REMAINING SNOW COVER FROM THE
SNOWFALL TONIGHT MAY HINDER THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMING SOME.
THIS WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
SPILL BACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
COLDER AIR PUSH FRIDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT DECENT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING
THIS TIME. IN SPITE OF THIS...I HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY AT THIS TIME.
A VERY ACTIVE JET ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DRIVE
DISTURBANCES EASTWARD ATOP A BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE INTO NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THESE
DISTURBANCES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE ACTUALLY TRACK. WITH
THIS IN MIND...I HAVE LEFT SOME LOW END POPS IN FOR LATER IN THE
WEEKEND.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 15-18 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
* MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MID EVENING.
* SNOW DEVELOPING LATE EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
* BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* RAPIDLY DETERIORATING VIS/CIGS TO LIFR/VLIFR WITH SNOW.
* STRONG/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS 30-35 KTS POSSIBLE.
CMS/RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT. LATEST 06Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD. WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR THIS SOLUTION...HAVE MOVED TEMPO LOWER
CONDITIONS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR THE
SAME TIME PERIOD WITH THE 12Z TAFS. POSSIBLE FOR VISIBILITIES TO
DROP TO 1/4SM DURING THIS TIME WITH HEAVY SNOW WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THE BAND WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH
RAIN AND BE RATHER WET BUT WILL BECOME DRIER AS COLDER AIR SPREADS
IN FROM THE NORTH. AS THIS HAPPENS...BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES/THUNDERSNOW BUT TOO ISOLATED OF A CHANCE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY TIGHTEN FROM EARLY/MID EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO
THE 20-25KT RANGE WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30-35KT RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH MID/LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
IN THE SHORTER TERM...MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH
THE DAY. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY SAG INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS TOWARD
EVENING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT DID INCLUDE
VICINITY MENTION AT RFD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT/CALM WINDS TO
START WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND SLOWLY INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 14-18KT RANGE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT FOG THIS
MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH MID/
LATE MORNING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM FOR LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING.
* HIGH FOR SNOW LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
MEDIUM FOR TIMING AND SPECIFIC TRENDS.
* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MEDIUM ON TIMING/DIRECTIONS.
* HIGH FOR VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MEDIUM ON CIG/VIS TRENDS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CMS/RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
330 AM...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
EAST TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT
REACHES NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS
THIS LOW PASSES SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH NORTHERLY WINDS STEADILY
INCREASING FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GALES
APPEAR TO BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AND INCREASE TO 45 KTS OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. OTHER THAN TWEAKING WIND SPEEDS/
GUSTS UP...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST/GRIDS OR
HEADLINES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
WINDS THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY SHOWS SOME OPEN WATER IN THE
ILLINOIS NEARSHORE ZONES AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXPECTED
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...ICE IN THE OPEN WATERS IS EXPECTED TO BE
PUSHED BACK TO THE ILLINOIS SHORE TONIGHT. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032...10 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
ILZ012...10 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WATCH...ILZ033-ILZ039...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM
WEDNESDAY.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002...10 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM
WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WATCH...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1
PM WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868...3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 322 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
Late this afternoon, surface boundary bisects the CWA stretching
just west of Wichita to the northeast to Topeka and further east
north of KMCI. Several convergence zones ahead this boundary, with
strongest axis stretching along the I-35/335 corridor. Will need to
watch for potential development of convection along this corridor
through 6pm as primary cold front moves east. Instability along and
head of this front remains meager, with RAP analysis only indicating
CAPE values 100-300 J/KG. If storms would happen to develop, the
main impact would be small hail with the longevity of convection
in the CWA minimal.
The other concern heading into the overnight hours will be strong
gradient winds. We`re already seeing advisory level winds in the
far NW portion of the CWA at this hour, and as the surface boundary
settles southeast, these strong gradient winds will swing through
the CWA. By midnight, sfc pressure gradient should begin to weaken
as the developing sfc low moves through the MO bootheel.
The shortwave responsible for these strong winds and increasing
precipitation chances is just beginning to enter the Western Plains
this afternoon. A linear band of mid-level frontogenesis across
NE/IA slopes back to western KS at 3pm. Short term model guidance
continues to suggest that this band will slowly move southeast this
evening. While the western flank of the mid-level lift should hold
together the further southeast it tracks, the eastern areas of
precip across NE/IA will dissipate as a new baroclinic zone is
reestablished further south across eastern KS and northern
Missouri. Precipitation should blossom shortly after 00Z along the
eastern edges of the CWA. Given the position of the shortwave and
how the wave pivots eastward, the majority of the heavy
precipitation should take place just east of the CWA. Latest
hopWRF, HRRR, RAP support the idea of a brief window of 3-5 hrs of a
rain/snow mixture bisecting the CWA with most of the activity
diminishing or moving east by 1am. Accumulations should remain light
given the warm grounds, but could see up to an inch of snow in some
spots where efficient rates can overtake boundary layer temps.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
After the past two days, Wednesday will feel
chilly with temperatures rebounding into the upper 40s to lower
50s. Will watch for an increase in low-level clouds late morning,
as a secondary wave rotates southward into the area. A quick rebound
above normal is expected by Thursday and Friday ahead of yet another
shortwave pivoting through the southern Rockies. Temperatures on
Thursday will rebound into the 60s, with a front dropping southward
on Friday lowering readings a few degrees.
Saturday-Monday: The aforementioned shortwave should pass far enough
to the south Friday night to have minimal impact on the CWA leaving
conditions pleasant for Saturday. A slightly more amplified flow
pattern will drop colder air southward again on Sunday, but this
cooldown should last no longer than a day as increasing
southwesterly flow ushers above normal temperatures into the region
to begin next week. Have bumped up temperatures for Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
Frontal boundary remains just northwest of the Manhattan terminal
this afternoon arching NE along the KS/NE state line. This
boundary will continue to sink southeast and reach the Topeka area
towards 22z. Winds will increase immediately behind this front
with sustained winds between 25-30 knots an occasional gusts
approaching 40 knots.
There appears to be two areas of precipitation that will move
through the region later this afternoon and tonight. Initial area
of precipitation dropping southeast of out SW Nebraska associated
with PV anomaly will gradually begin to merge with an intense
area of frontogenesis focused just east of the CWA. Have timed
initial development of rain around 00z, with a quick transition to
rain/snow or even completely to snow by 03z. The progressive
nature of the wave should force precipitation and associated MVFR to
IFR ceilings/VIS through the terminals by 06z. After that point,
we`ll see a gradual increase in ceilings, but winds will remain
breezy through the night.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Wednesday FOR
KSZ011-012-022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059.
WIND ADVISORY until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>010-020-
021-034-035.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 1 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-036>040-054>056-058-059.
WIND ADVISORY until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>010-020-
021-034-035.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
101 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2014
...Updated for aviation discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
Water vapor loop as of 08Z showed an impressive shortwave trough
continuing to dig southeastward into Utah. RAP analysis had a 400mb
potential vorticity (PV) anomaly extending from the base of the
trough near Great Salt Lake northeastward into eastern
Washington...suggesting a little more digging before the wave
translates eastward. Warmest temperatures in the lower troposphere
(850mb) were found across the High Plains of western Kansas into
West Texas (+17C at both North Platte and Dodge City; +20C at
Amarillo). The 08Z surface analysis showed a deepening surface low
centered near the western Nebraska-Kansas state border. Surface
winds continued to respond with overnight winds in the 10 to 13 knot
range, helping keep temperatures from dropping much. It was still in
the lower to mid 40s across much of the southwest and west central
Kansas region. Surface cold frontogenesis was noted across
northeastern Wyoming into the northern Nebraska Panhandle.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
Moderate to high impact wind event this afternoon/evening is the
main forecast challenge and how to handle this event with headlines
(advisory vs. warning). Now that the forecast wind event is within
higher resolution short-term models (RAP13, for instance) temporal
range, we are gaining a bit higher confidence in the wind forecast.
As the surface low moves southeast into central Kansas, it will
continue to deepen down to about 995mb while surface
anticyclogenesis will ramp up across the northern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains. This will induce a very tight pressure
gradient across western Kansas by midday...and especially this
afternoon.
The combined effect of the pressure gradient and the
isallobaric wind due to pressure change, will likely lead to
sustained winds around 40 mph for areas along and west of Highway
283 corridor...especially in the 22-01Z time frame. Forecast
soundings off the NAM12 and RAP13 both show around 35 knots just off
the surface around 900mb at Dodge City at 21Z with mixing up to
800-825mb. The winds around 800-850mb will pick up quite a bit as
the north wind low level jet strengthens west of the low at this
level. For Dodge City, the 00Z forecast soundings support a high
wind event (40mph sustained and/or 58mph gusts) with 50 knots shown
by both the NAM12 and RAP13 at the top of the mixed layer (which by
that point will be due to vigorous cold advection). Based on this
information, we will upgrade to a High Wind Warning for US283
corridor (Ness City down to Englewood) west to the Colorado border.
Per collaboration with surrounding offices, we will also include
areas of blowing dust where the High Wind Warning will be in effect
and hit it pretty hard in the NPW product. As far as precipitation
goes, the only area expected to see any measurable precipitation
will be the I-70 corridor, and will carry around 50 POPs up there. A
few tenths of an inch of wet snow may accumulate during the 23-02Z
time frame in particular.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave breaking
away from a larger scale trough Wednesday as it digs southeast
across the Rockies, and developing into a closed off upper level
low across the Intermountain West. Meanwhile, a general westerly
flow aloft will prevail across the Western High Plains through the
end of the week. This will result in dry conditions persisting
across western Kansas through Thursday night with insufficient
low/mid level moisture present. The closed off upper level low in
the Desert Southwest is then expected to open up and push eastward
into the South Plains early Friday bringing marginal precip
chances to the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles based on the
projected track of the shortwave. Cannot rule out a slight chance
for light rain across extreme southern portions of southwest and
south central Kansas Friday as the upper level system skirts
across our southern fringe.
Much cooler temperatures are likely Wednesday as arctic air spills
southward into western Kansas in wake of a departing cold front. The
NAM/GFS/ECMWF show H85 temperatures dropping well below 0C across
central and western Kansas initially Tuesday night. A slight
rebound to around 0C across central Kansas to near 5C along the
Colorado border is expected Wednesday afternoon due to some
northwesterly downsloping developing. Expect highs up into the
upper 40s(F) to possibly the lower to mid 50s(F) under decreasing
cloud cover. A quick bounce back to warmer temperatures will occur
Thursday as the arctic high dips further south across Texas while
lee side troughing redevelops across eastern Colorado. This will
quickly return a southwesterly downslope flow to western Kansas
pushing H85 temperatures up into the lower to mid Teens(C) across
central and western Kansas. Highs will easily reach the 60s(F)
Thursday afternoon with near 70F not out of the question in some
locations. Another cold front is projected to push through western
Kansas early Friday once again dropping temperatures across the
area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
A strong upper level system will pass across western Kansas this
afternoon and evening. Strong north winds at 30-40kts will persist
though 03z in the wake of surface low pressure, before subsiding.
Blowing dust could restrict visbys to 4sm through 23z at GCK/DDC.
Some light rain or snow is likely at KHYS between 23 and 04z as
the upper level trough axis approaches, and this could restrict
visibilities to MVFR. MVFR CIGS can be expected after 22-23z at
HYS/GCK/DDC, before clearing develops after 4z in the wake of the
upper level system.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 28 53 26 / 20 20 0 0
GCK 57 27 52 24 / 20 20 0 0
EHA 59 28 50 28 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 62 27 52 25 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 48 28 52 24 / 60 60 0 0
P28 68 31 54 28 / 10 20 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.
WIND ADVISORY until 11 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ046-065-066-
079>081-089-090.
WIND ADVISORY until 11 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Finch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
110 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED MAINLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE NE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NRN MANITOBA ON THE LEADING EDGE OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE TO THE SE AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO WRN CANADA.
ANOTHER SHRTWV OVER SASK IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DIVE TOWARD THE UPPER
MS VALLEY AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
TRAILING LOW PRES OVER QUEBEC EXTENDED THROUGH NRN ONTARIO INTO SRN
MANITOBA. TO THE SOUTH...MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILED WITH READINGS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FROM NRN MN AND NRN WI
THROUGH UPPER MI. EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO LIMITED
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND
UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING BRINGING AN INITIAL INFLUX OF COLDER
AIR. SO...MAX DAYTIME READINGS ARE EXPECTED EARLY WITH TEMPS STEADY
OR SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES IN AND 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -13C BY
00Z/WED...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
OVER THE NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TONIGHT...AS THE SASK SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE AREA MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH 925 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND -21C AND INCREASING WINDS VEERING FROM THE FROM THE NNW TO
NE. A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR SOME LES FOR LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED.
THE POSITION OF THE DGZ WILL ALSO BE MOST FAVORABLE FROM 06Z-12Z/WED.
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MON SHOWED ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE ICE COVER FOR
AT LEAST SOME HEAT/MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE LAKE TO SUPPORT LES. SINCE
THE ICE WILL STILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE LES POTENTIAL...EXPECT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...GREATEST OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE NE WINDS WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW AT IWD...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES/AMOUNTS FARTHER
TO THE WEST...OR FOR THE KEWEENAW WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV WILL BE MINIMAL.
OTHERWISE...THE MUCH COLDER AIR WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO AND WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS FROM -10 TO -20 LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE PRODUCING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
EXPECT THOSE TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE CREATED
SOME GAPS IN THE ICE NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...NOT THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH ASSISTANCE
TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EVEN THOUGH 900MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
-22C. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 3-4KFT...WOULDN/T EXPECT
THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE TOO STRONG AND ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE CLOUD BEING ABOVE THE DGZ. DID SLOWLY
DIMINISH THE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE
DEPTH BECOMES SHALLOW AND WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. WITH
THE MODELS SHOWING THE MOISTURE REMAINING BELOW THE STRENGTHENING
INVERSION FROM THE HIGH MOVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WONDERING IF CLOUDS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL). THE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.
STILL LOOKS TO BE A VERY COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLDEST
VALUES OF -10F TO -18F OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AND THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO OVER THE WEST HALF. WOULD EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES
TO WARM OVER THE WEST TOWARDS MORNING AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND
MID CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN UNDER WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. GEM/ECMWF/NAM CONSISTENT ON SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN U.P. WITH THIS WAA ON THURSDAY MORNING. SINCE
THERE HAVE BEEN INDICATIONS OF THIS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL TREND VALUES UP TO CHANCES AND THEN DIMINISH THEM AS
THEY HEAD EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
EARLIER RUNS WERE INDICATING A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN THE ICE CRYSTAL AREA TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. AT THIS POINT...MIGHT
SEE UP TO A HALF INCH TOWARDS IRONWOOD AND THEN DIMINISHING AMOUNTS
HEADING EAST.
BEHIND THIS PRECIPITATION...FOCUS TURNS TO THE LOW CENTERED NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG AT 18Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MODELS STILL DIFFERING ON THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS NOW
WELL OVER THE PACIFIC...WHICH IN-TURN CONTROLS THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FARTHEST NORTH (ALONG WITH RECENT RUNS
OF THE UKMET) AND RUNNING THE LOW ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE
GEM HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN THE TWO OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. ALL
IN ALL...THESE DIFFERENCES WON/T HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN AFFECT ON THE
LAND CWA PRECIPITATION...SINCE THE WAA PRECIP WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST
LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE
LOOKING FOR ANOTHER REALLY WARM DAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AREA WILL SEE
COLDER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE DAY. THUS...EXPECT THE WARMEST
TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO BE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.
WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE ARE ALSO
DIFFERENCES IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
NORTHERLY WINDS. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST ON
FRIDAY BEFORE THIS ARRIVES...WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD SURGE AND WITH SOME GAPS STARTING TO SHOW
IN THE ICE NEAR THE APOSTLE ISLANDS...THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DIFFICULT TO GO
WITH MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS WITH THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER
AND POTENTIAL CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR IDEA AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THAT PUTS CHANCES OVER THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST AREAS IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION TO TRADITIONAL NORTHWEST-NORTHERLY WIND AREAS FOR
SATURDAY. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN AND HAVE
DIMINISHED POPS HEADING INTO SUNDAY (EVENTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS REMAIN
AROUND -17C). WITH THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT...SHOULD BE 10-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES
CLEAR OUT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB ZERO
LOWS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND HAVE TRENDED VALUES DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE CWA. SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SEEMS LIKE A
GOOD START AT THIS POINT...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
COLD SPOTS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST ON MONDAY...BUT IT/S INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN AND KEEP THE AREA
DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
THE RETURN OF COLD AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR AIDED BY SOME DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE THE MVFR STRATOCU DECK AT ALL
3 LOCATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT THIS EVNG WILL BRING SOME SHSN TO THE
AREA. THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR OVER EVEN LIMITED GAPS IN THE
LAKE SUPERIOR ICE COVER AND UPSLOPE INTO SAW SHOULD PRODUCE SOME
-SHSN. DRIER AIR STARTS TO COME IN BY LATE WED MORNING AND SHOULD
SCATTER OUT THE CLOUDS AT IWD AND CMX AND PUT THEM BOTH INTO VFR
LATE WED MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH NW TO N WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED INTO WED NIGHT AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE NRN LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20
KNOTS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM JUST TO THE NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGS WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
320 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND SKY COVER AND
SUBSEQUENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM
DULUTH TO ASHLAND TO MONTREAL TONIGHT...ALONG WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY WED MORNING.
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NRN MN
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO. A TIGHT SFC PRES GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE REGION WHICH HAS ALLOWED W/NW WINDS TO INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OBSERVATIONS HAVE INDICATED
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.
THE AIR MASS IS FAIRLY DRY OVER THE NORTHLAND AND MOST OF THE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF MID LEVEL STRATO-CU HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
ARROWHEAD...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT BY THE EVENING. THE SFC HIGH TO THE
NORTH WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SE TONIGHT AND BECOME POSITIONED
JUST NORTH OF THE ARROWHEAD IN WRN ONTARIO WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES
REGION TO PRODUCE A MODEST NE WIND OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL ADVECT OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARMER LAKE AND PRODUCE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM
THE TWIN PORTS TO THE GOGEBIC RANGE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ROUGHLY -19 TO -22 DEG
C...WITH LAKE TEMPS AROUND 1 TO 2 DEG C. THIS SHOULD ALLOW BL
LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT LES. HOWEVER...THE DEPTH OF THE LAYER MIGHT
BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR WITH BDY LAYER HEIGHTS AROUND 4K FT.
RECENT WARMING AND STRONG WINDS HAVE ALLOWED MUCH OF THE LAKE TO
LOSE ITS SOLID ICE COVER...SO WITH MUCH OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
OPEN...CONDITIONS ARE NOW SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE AS WELL. THE
CHANCE FOR LES WILL BE FLEETING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BY MID-LATE
WED MORNING. SNOW AMTS WILL GENERALLY BE A HALF INCH OR
LESS...WITH SOME LOCATIONS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE AN INCH FROM
DOUGLAS TO IRON COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FAIRLY RAPIDLY TONIGHT UNDER AREAS THAT SEE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER THE WRN
COUNTIES. AREAS TO THE EAST AND SE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LE CLOUDS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE TEMPS
WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND -15 TO -20.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WARMING DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW WITH THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A WAA PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST GOING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. LOOK FOR HIGHS TOMORROW TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOWER TO MID 20S. SHOULD SEE SKIES CLEAR OFF EARLY WED AFTERNOON
BEFORE ANOTHER MID-HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
A PERIOD OF STRONG WAA WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE
NAM IS MOST BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND WE LEANED TOWARD
IT AND INCREASED POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A HALF TO AROUND
ONE INCH OF SNOW WILL OCCUR WITH THE WAA. SOUNDINGS LOOK SUPPORTIVE
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...BUT THE BETTER LIFT WILL BE WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WAA AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TO OCCUR AFTER THE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MILD
AND WE KEPT HIGHS IN THE FORTIES...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END OF MOST
GUIDANCE. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COOL OVER THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS WHEN TEMPS HAVE BEEN MILD.
A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AIR. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SATURDAY...AND
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF OPEN WATER...SOME MEASURABLE SNOW IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. COOLER HIGHS IN THE
TWENTIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE
FROM RUN TO RUN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. IT HAS
GONE BACK TO BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT WE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL BETTER CONTINUITY OCCURS.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TWENTIES
TO LOWER THIRTIES...WITH LOWER TO MID THIRTIES TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR TODAY/TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH AS WELL TONIGHT. STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO. WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 2500-3500 TO MOVE INTO MOST TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. THE RAP HAS DONE AN OK JOB DEPICTING THE CLOUDS...BUT
DOES SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE COVERAGE. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST-NORTHEAST. THERE IS MORE
OPEN WATER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER MODIS IMAGERY...AND THAT SHOULD
ALLOW MORE LAKE CLOUDS/SNOW TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR
MOVING IN. AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT...A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SOME LES/CLOUDS WILL OCCUR IN KDLH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 4 20 9 43 / 30 10 60 10
INL -8 19 12 44 / 10 10 60 10
BRD 7 23 15 47 / 10 10 50 0
HYR 3 19 6 44 / 20 10 50 10
ASX 3 13 4 46 / 40 20 50 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1246 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
AT 345AM/0845Z...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED BAND OF PCPN NORTH OF THE
LOW...STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST...WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
DAKOTA. MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS HAD BKN/OVC
CLOUD COVER...MOSTLY FROM MID/HIGH CLOUDS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED WESTWARD
FROM THE QUEBEC LOW TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THERE
WAS CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR...AIR OF ARCTIC ORIGINS...BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. MUCH OF ONTARIO...MANITOBA...AND SASKATCHEWAN HAD
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE NORTHLAND HAD TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TO
THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERE WERE WNW TO
NW WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH.
TODAY...THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST TO
MISSOURI. ITS BAND OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO COVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THEN
BEGIN TO SCATTER AND SHIFT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WE WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO DITCH THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS....THE LOW CLOUDS IN
CANADA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT
MOVES GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD
BE SOME SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...SO I INCREASED THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SINCE THOSE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. THE HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE NORTHLAND.
THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STRENGTHEN
AND BECOME NNE TO ENE. CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A LOT MORE OPEN
WATER NOW DUE TO THE RECENT WARM WEATHER...THE COLD FLOW OVER THE
LAKE WILL RESULT IN SOME DECENT CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. I
INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS NW WISCONSIN...THE TWIN PORTS
AREA...AND FOR THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY AREA. MOST OF THE MODELS
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE PICKING UP ON THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
THREAT...BUT THE NAM12 AND SREF ARE DOING MUCH BETTER HANDLING
THIS. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY GET ABOUT A HALF TO A FULL INCH. MORE
IS POSSIBLE...BUT I THINK WE WILL GET A BETTER IDEA OF THE THREAT
WHEN THIS TIMEFRAME COMES INTO VIEW FOR MORE OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS. THE BEST PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW APPEARS TO
BE FROM ABOUT 9 PM TO 3 AM. THIS IS WHEN OVERALL MOISTURE IN THE
FLOW OVER THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE BEST...AND THEN DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION VERY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL
BE CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND
DECREASING WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
FALL AROUND AND SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. I DECREASED THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST NOW HAS A RANGE OF MID TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...TO THE MID TO UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL CUT OFF THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LIGHTEN. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THIS
WILL HELP BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES...BUT I DID LOWER THE HIGHS A
BIT BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS BEING MUCH COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT WARM AND
MORE MOIST AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGINS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PCPN
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE ONLY THE GFS WAS THIS QUICK AT BRINGING IN
THE PCPN...I DECIDED TO KEEP THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
HAVE INCREASED TO BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT/THURS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT/MID LEVEL OMEGA TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND...TRIGGERING A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY A HALF TO ONE INCH.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AS THE
WARM SECTOR PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME 50S.
LATEST MODELS SHOW SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND TIMING...BUT
ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE WITH CLOSED
H85/SFC LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND TRACKS ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS
SUGGEST THERE IS A LACK OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW NEAR THE LOW CENTER ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER/MN
ARROWHEAD ZONES. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON
IN THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY...SETTLING
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE
EAST MONDAY...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FOUND AHEAD OF AN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THIS
ORGANIZED SYSTEM DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS AND TRACKS OVER THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR TODAY/TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH AS WELL TONIGHT. STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO. WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 2500-3500 TO MOVE INTO MOST TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. THE RAP HAS DONE AN OK JOB DEPICTING THE CLOUDS...BUT
DOES SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE COVERAGE. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST-NORTHEAST. THERE IS MORE
OPEN WATER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER MODIS IMAGERY...AND THAT SHOULD
ALLOW MORE LAKE CLOUDS/SNOW TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR
MOVING IN. AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT...A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SOME LES/CLOUDS WILL OCCUR IN KDLH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 34 4 19 10 / 10 30 10 50
INL 27 -9 19 15 / 20 10 0 50
BRD 36 7 23 15 / 10 10 10 40
HYR 36 3 17 8 / 10 20 10 40
ASX 37 3 13 4 / 10 30 20 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1204 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL FALL WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HRS OF THIS DISCUSSION AS AN IMPRESSIVE FRONTGENETICALLY
DRIVEN BAND OF PRECIP BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO COOL WITH THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...AND THUS THEIR PTYPE ALGORITHMS ARE LIKELY
OVERDOING THE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW TREMENDOUS LIFT ALONG THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONT AS INFERRED FROM
THE SHARP WIND SHIFT WITHIN THE H850-700 LAYER. ASIDE FROM THE
LOWEST FEW HUNDRED METERS THE ENTIRE SOUNDING IS BELOW FREEZING...SO
ANTICIPATING THAT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIX
AROUND 6-7AM...AND THEN QUICKLY OVER TO HEAVY WET SNOW AROUND MID
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.
SNOW RATIOS WILL BE IN THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS...BUT QPF SHOULD EASILY
MANAGE AROUND 0.20 TO 0.30 YIELDING SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES
UNDER THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW. AT THIS POINT THE RAP 11.07 PLACES
THIS HEAVY BAND FROM CANBY MN EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
METRO...AND THEREFORE ALL THE HIRES MODELS THAT USE THE RAP FOR
THEIR INITIAL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS ARE SUBCONSCIOUSLY DRAWN TO THIS
CONCLUSION. HOWEVER...THE H850-700MB FGEN...WHICH AS OF EARLY THIS
MORNING MATCHES UP NICELY WITH THE ONGOING PRECIP...SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
FROM CANBY TO MANKATO AND OWATONNA. BASED ON THAT DIAGNOSTIC
TOOL...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO FALL TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
CURRENT MODEL GENERATED QPF FIELD. AT THIS POINT NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT EXPECT HEAVY WET SNOW
WITH 1/2 TO 1/4 MI VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
LOOKING AHEAD...COLD AIR WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS
IT STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR STORM OVER NEW ENGLAND. CLOSER TO HOME
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN THE NEXT SHOT OF LEE-SIDE WARM AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S ONCE AGAIN...WITH
50S IN WESTERN MN. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF
THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE ST CROIX RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS COLD AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD AND
LASTS INTO NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
RAIN/SNOW HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST. MENTIONED SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE 03Z-04Z PERIOD. THIS MAY BE A BIT
FAST BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING. WILL
KEEP THE VFR CIGS FARTHER TO THE WEST INTO MINNESOTA...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH...ESPECIALLY TOWARD KSTC/KMSP.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER AREA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW
AR WEST THIS OCCUR. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY WED. NORTHERLY FLOW MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS 15-20KTS PSBL. THE NORTH WIND CONTINUE INTO WED BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS THE HIGH DROPS IN.
KMSP...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. SOME THREAT OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING INTO THE COMING EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES EAST OF THE
AIRPORT. NORTH WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE
WEST LATER WED AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...VFR. CHC MVFR CIG -SN. W TO SW WIND 8 KTS.
THU...VFR. SW WIND 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. W 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1255 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING ACROSS NERN NEB AROUND 18Z TODAY. THIS
FGEN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY STRONG BAND OF WET SNOW WITH
HOURLY LIQUID RATES OF UP TO 0.10 INCHES. THE NAM RADAR PRODUCT
SHOWS THIS BAND SETTING UP FROM AROUND CHAMBERS TO BROKEN BOW AT
21Z WHICH MOVES QUICKLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z. THE NAM HAS
BEEN WOBBLING SOMEWHAT BUT THE CONCEPT OF FOLDED THETA E AND DEEP
LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE CONTINUES. THE 05Z RAP MODEL
SETS IT UP FROM ONEILL TO SUTHERLAND. THE 00Z ECM FOLLOWS THE NAM
WHICH MATCHES THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
IN GENERAL...THE MODELS ARE CLUSTERING AROUND 0.20 INCHES OF LIQUID
FOR THIS EVENT ALONG HIGHWAY 83 BUT THEN SPREAD OUT TO THE EAST AS
SOME SIGNAL A WETTER EVENT AND OTHERS DRIER. THE MEDIAN QPF IN
CUSTER COUNTY LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.30 INCHES.
GIVEN THE STRONG LIFT DEVELOPING...IT IS EXPECTED THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING LASTING 1 OR 2 HOURS AT
THE MOST. THIS IS ABOUT A 6 HOUR PCPN EVENT WHICH EXITS THE FCST
AREA BY AROUND 00Z. THERE IS A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN BEFORE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW IN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS. H700MB TEMPERATURES COOL
VERY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MARKING THE ONSET OF PCPN AND
DEEP LIFT WILL AID THE DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESS.
AN 8 TO 1 SNOW WATER RATIO WAS USED UP NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WHICH WAS REDUCED TO 5 TO 1 DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND THEN WARM UP
ONCE THE SNOW LETS UP OR ENDS. THIS PRODUCED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WET
SNOW.
THERE IS NO REASON TO UNDER ESTIMATE A SPRING STORM DURING THE 2ND
WEEK OF MARCH AND THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG NORTH WINDS AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALL MODELS SHOW 500M AGL WINDS INCREASING TO OVER
30 KT WHICH TRANSLATES TO 30 MPH AT THE SFC. THE NAM...GFS
GUIDANCE...HRRR AND RAP MODELS ALL SHOW GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH
DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTL NEB NORTH OF THE SFC LOW LOCATED ACROSS KS
BY NOON TODAY. H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 45 TO 55 KT. THE WIND
FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT AND DETERMINISTIC
SOLNS WHICH FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE ROAD. THE GFS AND THE ECM SPREAD
THESE STRONGER WINDS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA TONIGHT. THIS COULD PRODUCE SNOW FLURRIES OR PERHAPS ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND REMAIN MOIST SUPPORTING THIS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
THE SYSTEM BRINGING THE SNOW AND WIND TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND BE PAST THE LOCAL AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL PUT NEBRASKA UNDER SUBSIDENT AIR WEDNESDAY AND WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTING IN EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY...SIGNALS ARE COMING
TOGETHER FOR A BREEZY DAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECONDARY PV MAX
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY...TO HELP
ENHANCE WINDS ALOFT AND WITH STEEP SURFACE TO 700MB LAPSE RATES
CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON BREEZY CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MIXED
LAYER BETWEEN 700MB AND 800MB AND LOOKING AT MAXIMUM WINDS IN THAT
LAYER UP TO 35KTS SO DECIDED TO INCREASE WINDS DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DON/T CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY SO
LOOKING AT AN ADIABATIC PROFILE...HIGHS WOULD BE IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY A BIT COOL FOR
TEMPERATURES AND WITH SUNNY SKIES THINK MOST AREAS WILL WARM A BIT
MORE THAN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE INDICATING.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS NO SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS ARE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL STAY FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THURSDAY
AS IT WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW AMPLIFIED THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE...WHICH
IMPACTS HOW STRONG THE SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME AND THEN HOW MUCH
WARM AIR CAN BE PULLED NORTHWARD. TOOK A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S AND 60S. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A BIT STRONGER...TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED FOR THURSDAY.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS NEBRASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ON
WHERE THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS...IT DOES APPEAR
FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT IT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH STAYING NEAR THE LOW
CENTER...FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR WOULD NEED A MOISTURE SOURCE
FROM THE SOUTH TO GET THIS TO HAPPEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY PROHIBIT MUCH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. ONE THING THAT
DOES LOOK POSSIBLE IS STRONG WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE AREA
STAYING IN A LOCATION WITH DRY AIR...WHEN THE AIRMASS BECOMES
SUBSIDENT BEHIND THE FRONT...DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE PROMOTED.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS NIGHT...WHICH ISN/T AS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER
WINDS...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS TIME-FRAME IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS CONCERNING WINDS.
THE MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEGINNING SATURDAY AS THEY SEEM
TO BE HAVING PROBLEMS HANDLING THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW. ONE THING
THEY DO ALL AGREE ON IS THAT STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD
IN...SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THEY ALSO ARE INDICATING THE PATTERN
ALOFT BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED AND DIG A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH ALONG
THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. CONTINUE TO
HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH BOTH
RAIN AND SNOW LOOKING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN ON SATURDAY...THEN SWITCHING TO RAIN/SNOW
AND SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK TO RAIN ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY NOT
BE REAL LIKELY...AS THERE WON/T BE THAT GREAT AMOUNT OF TIME WITH
RAIN AND SNOW...BUT WITH CONCERN OVER TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION...DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE YET TO NAIL DOWN A
PARTICULAR PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS INTERESTING...WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PASS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE PRETTY STRONG...WHICH COULD LEAD TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY...THEN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...AND STRONG WINDS TUESDAY. DIDN/T GO TOO WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE ON FORECASTING
THE HIGHS THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW AT THIS TIME IS QUITE
LOW...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE AREA......WITH NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN
THE 20 TO 35 KT RANGE. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVIER MOISTURE CHANCES ACROSS SW NEB. TEMPS
ARE IN THE MID 30S...SO PRECIP TYPE IS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR
ALL SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE
NORTH...LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MEANWHILE FUTHER
SOUTH...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CHANGE OVER TO MORE SNOW AS A BAND
DEVELOPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING THIS BAND WILL SHIFT
SOUTH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLGHT CHC FOR FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TOMORROW VFR AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ025>029-036>038-057>059-069>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1229 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
HAVE UPDATED TO CUT EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS...LARGELY FOR LACK OF
COOLING BUT ALSO FOR LESS PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST CORNER...THAT IS NORTHWEST IOWA AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN
STATE BORDER. THE WEAKNESS OF THE COOLING IS ALLOWING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO FALL ONLY IN THE AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...AND
THERE IS NOT MUCH OF THAT GOING TO BE LEFT. THE EXCEPTION IS FROM
NORTH OF BROOKINGS INTO LINCOLN COUNTY MN WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS...BUT EVEN THERE THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE OUT SOON. A REPORT FROM MARSHALL MINNESOTA INDICATED
0.37 INCH OF PRECIPITATION AND NO SNOW. HAVE ALSO CUT
PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT FOR THIS EVENING FAR SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DO NOTHING EXCITING WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
STIFF NORTHERLY BREEZE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY AS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. AS OF 4 AM THIS BAND IS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
14. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH A STRONG AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
DECENT INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONT...THUS NOT SURPRISED BY THE HIGH
REFLECTIVITY CURRENTLY ON RADAR. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE
WARM...AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPE IS CURRENTLY RAIN. THIS FIRST
AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS SOUTH THIS MORNING...BUT ALSO BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. THIS OCCURS AS THE MAIN WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH THE BEST QG FORCING SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THUS
MAKES SENSE THAT WE SEE FRONTOGENESIS INTENSIFY AGAIN SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AS MODELS SHOW. SO EXPECT WE SEE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
BAND ALONG HIGHWAY 14 SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH...THEN INTENSIFY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
AS THE FRONT STRENGTHENS AND INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER WAVE. PRETTY
LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH THE BAND WEAKENS THIS MORNING...AND
HOW QUICKLY IT INTENSIFIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IMPORTANT NOT
ONLY FOR QPF...BUT ALSO PRECIPITATION TYPE.
IF PRECIPITATION STAYS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...IT WILL LIKELY STAY
MAINLY RAIN. ONLY EXPECTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DUE TO DYNAMIC
COOLING IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. SO IF THIS HEAVIER BAND
WEAKENS ENOUGH...OUR SNOW FORECAST COULD BE IN TROUBLE. THE LATEST
06Z NAM AND HRRR AND RAP DO SHOW THIS MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. EVEN AS THE BAND INTENSIFIES SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 THIS AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER COULD BE WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS RAIN...OR JUST A WET NON ACCUMULATING SNOW. SO
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE ARW AND NAM FOR TIMING...WITH THE BAND
IMPACTING INTERSTATE 90 MID TO LATE MORNING...AND NORTHWEST IOWA
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT...AND AS A SECONDARY WAVE DROP SOUTH...COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
RUNS DID SHIFT THIS SNOW SHOWER AREA FURTHER WEST FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CENTERED MORE BETWEEN THE JAMES RIVER AND INTERSTATE 29
CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE
CANADIAN/GFS AND ECMWF. OPTED TO EXCLUDE THE NAM AS IT SEEMED TO BE
THE OUTLIER IN TERMS OF THE PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS AND SEEMED TO BE
SLOWER THAN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. MODELS SUGGEST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER
APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS VARY FROM
SOLUTION TO SOLUTION...BUT IN GENERAL...ALL HINT AT ONLY A LIMITED
AMOUNT OF THE DENDRITIC LAYER SATURATING AND WITH THE WARMER AIR
BEGINNING TO RETURN IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING DECREASES WITH TIME. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT DROPPED TO FLURRIES IN
THE LATE MORNING IF ANYTHING IS LEFT BY THEN. EXPECT NICE WARMING
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER STRATUS MAY LINGER AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY LIMITING WARMING
POTENTIAL. WARMED HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NICE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN 925 HPA TEMPS WARMING INTO THE
10-13C RANGE.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH MINNESOTA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE
MOST PART...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE WAVE IS FOCUSED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. FRONT WORKS
BACK TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY...WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW EAST OF THE
FRONT. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES APPEAR TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NEAR THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY CREATING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
DEPENDING WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS ON. THE
FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY LEADING TO A
WARMING TREND. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...LEADING A
WARM BUT WINDY DAY. INCREASED WINDS ON MONDAY COMPARED TO THE
GUIDANCE BUT MAY NOT HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF FLOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
SOUTHEAST OF MJQ/FSD/YKN LINE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1-3K FEET AND
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN -RASN WILL IMPROVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY 12/00Z TO VFR WITH A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS 1-3K FEET.
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY VFR...BUT A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS 1-3K FEET
MAINLY BEFORE 12/00Z AND AFTER 12/06Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1253 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. ALSO REMOVED OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE COUNTIES FROM THE RED
FLAG WARNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO INCREASED OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE 18Z TAF FORECAST AS WIND
GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
NORTHWEST TO MOSTLY NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 06Z. AN AVIATION WEATHER
WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1AM.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
WITH ANY BLDU THAT OCCURS...VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE AND COULD DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY. AS AN EXAMPLE...PERRYTON, TEXAS IS CURRENTLY REPORTING
1 3/4SM. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 06Z WITH GUSTS
STILL UP TO 30KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
KNS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DALHART TO CANADIAN WHICH IS SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLES.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...RH VALUES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RECOVER THUS CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED AND THE RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS WELL
AS SHERMAN...HANSFORD..OCHILTREE...AND LIPSCOMB COUNTIES. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT HAS REPLACED THE CANCELLED RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THESE COUNTIES.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH...THE COUNTIES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASE BUT WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS
WELL. THE WORST CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL
RESIDE (COUPLED WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE).
KNS/JJ
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
AND A FEW 80S EXPECTED. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
INCREASED 1 TO 3 DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH MORE OF AN INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THESE AREAS.
ALL OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS WERE TWEAKED BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
CLK/KNS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/
FIRE WEATHER...
BIG CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS ON FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. DUE TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH, OVERNIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WERE VERY POOR FOR LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY CLIMBING UP TO 35%. SEVERAL LOCATIONS EVEN
STAYED BELOW 30% ALL NIGHT. RECOVERIES WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WHERE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES RANGED BETWEEN 50 AND 80%. WHAT THIS ESSENTIALLY
MEANS IS THAT FINE FUEL MOISTURE NEVER HAD A CHANCE TO MOISTEN AT ALL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN VERY LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH LATER TODAY. SPEAKING OF THE COLD FRONT, IT CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM NEAR HILL CITY, KS TO GARDEN CITY, KS TO SPRINGFIELD,
CO. THIS FRONT WILL ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER 11 AM, AND MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
APPROXIMATE COLD FRONT TIMING:
GUYMON: 1 PM
DALHART AND PERRYTON: 1-2 PM
DUMAS, BORGER, AND PAMPA: 3-4 PM
AMARILLO: 4-5 PM
SHAMROCK: 5-6 PM
HEREFORD: 6-7 PM
ONE OF THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARKS IS HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAW RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MARGINAL WINDS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA. HOWEVER, PREFER
THE HIGHER MET AND MAV WINDS (WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST) AS
MOS GUIDANCE TENDS TO DO RELATIVELY WELL ON THESE DOWNSLOPE WIND
DAYS. WILL LEAVE THE RED FLAG WARNING IN TACT, BUT OUR HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR SEEING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SOUTH
OF A CLAYTON TO CANADIAN LINE.
THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF FUEL MOISTURE OVER THE LAST MONTH IS
CLEARLY SEEN IN TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC)
DATA. AFTER LAST WEEK`S MOISTURE, WE HAVE QUICKLY DRIED OUT AGAIN. IN
FACT, FORECAST ERC VALUES TODAY ARE 67 AT BOOTLEG, 62 AT CEDAR, AND
60 AT WHEELER. THESE VALUES ARE GETTING VERY CLOSE TO THE 90%
PERCENTILE, AT WHICH LOCAL RESEARCH SUGGESTS SIGNIFICANT FIRE
POTENTIAL BECOMES AN INCREASING CONCERN. WITH THESE DRYING FUELS AND
A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, IT`S NOT A BIG
SURPRISE THAT WE SAW A SLIGHT UPTICK IN INITIAL ATTACK ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY. TFS SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL MATRICES SHOW A MODERATE TO
NEAR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE AXIS OF A BROAD 850 MB THERMAL
RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE ALIGNMENT OF THE STRONGEST
LOW-/MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
AXIS. IT IS ALSO IN THESE LOCATIONS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS HIGHER FIRE DANGER PER
LOCAL RESEARCH. THEREFORE, BASED ON FUELS AND WEATHER, THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (AND THEY ARE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE) OF SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF A HEREFORD TO
HAPPY LINE. DESPITE THIS, FIRE OFFICIALS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS
SHOULD REMAIN ON HEIGHTENED ALERT, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
(GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH) BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BE OF UTMOST IMPORTANCE IN THE EVENT OF ANY FIRE
STARTS OR ONGOING FIRES BEFORE THEN!
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...WEST WINDS INITIALLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS
OF 30-35 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND
INCREASING TO NEAR 35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KTS POSSIBLE. SOME
VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM BLDU BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ANY BLDU...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KAMA FROM 22Z
TODAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE STRONG WINDS.
KB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WYOMING NOW WILL ELONGATE AND
SPLIT AS IT DIVES SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO AND KANSAS TODAY. A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BLAST ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS VERY TIGHT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WYOMING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MILES
AN HOUR ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH GUST TO AROUND 60 MILES AN HOUR
IN SOME SPOTS. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TURNED THE HIGH WIND WATCH INTO
A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ONLY THE FAR EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE IN A WIND ADVISORY. BLOWING
DUST MAY ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO ONE MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MET ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO 15 PERCENT OR BELOW AHEAD
AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE WIND SHIFT AND SUDDEN INCREASE
IN THE WIND WILL ALSO CAUSE UNPREDICTABLE FIRE BEHAVIOR SHOULD A
FIRE START.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD BE BELOW 20 MPH
BY MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS STILL WANT TO PAINT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AS IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE PANHANDLES WILL ARRIVE BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHEAST ON THE EAST SIDE
OF A WEST COAST RIDGE AND IT INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AGAIN...THE MODELS WANT CHANGE THEIR TUNE
SINCE IT IS A NEW DAY. THEREFORE...WILL NOT INSERT ANY PRECIP FOR
LATE NEXT WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GET DOWN INTO THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
START TO RECOVER SOME BEHIND A COLD ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MID AFTERNOON...
BUT WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SO ANY
ONGOING FIRES COULD HAVE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR DUE TO THE SHIFTING
WINDS WITH THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEY
WILL BE BELOW 15 MPH BY AROUND MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...GRAY...HANSFORD...
HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ARMSTRONG...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...HEMPHILL...WHEELER.
OK...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.
&&
$$
KNS/CLK/JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1224 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.UPDATE...
INITIAL MIXING THIS PRODUCED SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS THAN
EXPECTED...MAINLY FROM DENVER CITY THROUGH LUBBOCK TOWARD FLOYDADA
AND SILVERTON...WHERE LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA WAS SEEN AT TIMES.
SODAR AT REESE CENTER SHOWING WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING SOME WHILE AT
THE SFC INITIAL WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT STILL
BACK FURTHER TO THE NORTH SHOULD PRODUCE A WEAKNESS IN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT ALSO POINTS TO WINDS DECREASING INTO THE
FCST WIND SPEED RANGE BY EARLY AFTN. AS A RESULT WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD FCST ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO BECOME NW THIS AFTN THEN NORTH THIS EVENING
PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED. BLOWING DUST AT KLBB CAME EARLIER AND
DENSER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED...BUT APPEARS WINDS WILL WEAKEN
JUST ENOUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO SEE SFC VSBY INCREASE TO 5SM OR
GREATER BEFORE COMING BACK DOWN THIS EVENING BEHIND THE STRONG
COLD FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/
AVIATION...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY. PATCHY BLDU MAY CAUSE LOCAL VSBY REDUCTIONS. THIS
EVENING...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS COULD APPROACH 30 KTS AT EITHER OR BOTH
TERMINALS AND REQUIRE AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING. ALSO...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER DUST CONCENTRATIONS WHICH COULD
RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS AT KLBB. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THE DUST WILL SETTLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE STAGE IS SET FOR A EARLY SPRING STRONG WIND/BLOWING DUST AND
FIRE WEATHER EVENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. 3 AM SAT IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR
ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ROUGHLY EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...PLACING THE CWA ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
MID-LVL JET MAX WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A WEAK
SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM A LOW IN FAR NE COLO THROUGH THE WRN
PANHANDLES INTO ERN NM WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST TODAY. TIGHTENING
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE WEST THEN
W-NW. FINALLY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO NRN COLO AND WRN
NE...THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF STRONG WINDS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...MORE ON THAT LATER.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING...THE WEST
TEXAS SODAR AT REESE CENTER ALREADY SHOWS 30+ KTS AT 500 FT AGL.
WHILE WE DO HAVE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN CWA
THIS MORNING...UNFORTUNATELY...THIS MOISTURE WILL BE SCOURED OUT
QUICKLY AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
NOON /SEE DISCUSSION BELOW/. IN GENERAL...WE EXPECT WINDS TO RISE
INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SLIGHTLY
LOWER IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SLIGHTLY MORE ACROSS THE W-SW.
THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BUT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LOFT SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST. TEMPS WILL
BE QUITE WARM FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...PERHAPS PUSHING 90F IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS...WHILE CAA
COMING IN FROM THE NW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE FAR
SW TX PANHANDLE AND WRN SPLNS.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BARRELING SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. WHILE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT/S PROGRESS WILL BE
QUICKER IN THE EAST...LAGGING IN THE WEST...THERE IS STILL A FEW
HOURS OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. WE ARE FAVORING
THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP AND THE TTU-WRF...WHICH SHOWS THE
FRONT ENTERING CHILDRESS COUNTY AROUND 23 UTC...AND PARMER COUNTY
AROUND 00 UTC. BUT OF COURSE THE ACTUAL FROPA COULD VARY A COUPLE
HOURS EITHER WAY. AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY...MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA
/SUSTAINED SPEED OF AT LEAST 40 MPH AND/OR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 57
MPH/ ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA. WE ARE A LITTLE SKEPTICAL THAT
WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS IN THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS...BUT WE ARE PLANNING ON EXTENDING THE HIGH WIND WATCH SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK....WITH SOLID ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SOMEWHAT INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS PROGGED IN
THE 800-700MB WIND FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AROUND 0Z. THIS
SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE OVERALL FCST BUT DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...IT COULD LEAD TO A SHORT-DURATION LULL
IN GUSTY WINDS BEFORE A BIG INCREASE WITH THE FROPA.
AS FOR BLOWING DUST...WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CONCENTRATION OF DIRT AND
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT WE DON/T HAVE ANY STRONG INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO ADVISORY OR DUST STORM LEVELS. THIS IS
PARTLY DUE TO THE WIND DIRECTION AND OUR EXPECTATION THAT THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER PEAK MIXING. IF THE FRONT IS FASTER/STRONGER
THAN EXPECTED...THEN DENSE BLOWING DUST MAY BE A GREATER CONCERN.
LONG TERM...
AFTER THE ACTIVE SHORT TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST SEEMS RELATIVELY
BENIGN BY COMPARISON. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES SQUARELY OVER WEST TEXAS. IT WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER BEHIND THIS EVENINGS FROPA...WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY TOPPING OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW MID-MARCH AVERAGES.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY WHICH WHEN COUPLED
WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE AND
RENEWED SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MEAN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR AVERAGE.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN WEST TO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT WILL HANG
OUT OVER THE GREAT BASIN MID-WEEK. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GET KICKED
EASTWARD LATE WEEK AS JET ENERGY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DO CONTINUE
TO PAINT POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT QPF SOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR THE CWA.
GIVEN THIS SIGNAL...WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN STILL APPEARS
LOW AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT. THE TIMING
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PASSING WAVE DOES ALSO CREATE LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON WHEN THE ASSOCIATED FROPA WILL OCCUR. A QUICKER SYSTEM/FRONT
COULD MEAN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH EITHER WAY THE SYSTEM WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH COOL AIR TO WORK WITH.
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL START OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. AT A MINIMUM...THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD HELP
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LESS CERTAIN IS EXACTLY
WHAT LONGITUDE THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES AND THUS WHETHER OR NOT IT
CAN BRING A WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTH PLAINS.
THE MOST RECENT ECMWF HAS TRENDED BACK FURTHER WEST AND
WETTER...WHILE THE GFS TRACK IS MORE EASTWARD WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE
DRY FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS. WE HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS AROUND 10
PERCENT FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT TO MAKE A MOVE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER UNTIL
THE NWP CAN COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. REGARDLESS...WARMER AND
DRY WEATHER SHOULD KICK OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS AND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW REDEVELOPS.
FIRE WEATHER...
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTH PLAINS AREA TODAY AND WE WILL EXPAND
AND UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR WHOLE CWA.
DESPITE HIGH RH VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...VERY DRY AIR WILL SPREAD EAST RESULTING
IN RH VALUES DROPPING UNDER 15 PERCENT BY 10 AM FOR MANY AREAS...AND
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
WIND SPEEDS MAY BE ON THE LOW END OF CRITERIA ACROSS THE ERN ROLLING
PLAINS...IT APPEARS THAT WIND SPEEDS AND RH VALUES WILL SUPPORT AN
EXTREMELY CRITICAL DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS. WINDS MAY RELAX FOR A PERIOD AROUND 6 TO 7 PM...BUT
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING WILL BRING AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND MUCH STRONGER WINDS SPEEDS.
ALTHOUGH COOLING TEMPS AND RISING RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO REDUCE
THE FIRE DANGER...WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH
9 PM CDT DUE TO THIS STRONG FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 71 25 52 24 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 76 28 54 25 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 77 29 55 26 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 78 30 54 26 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 80 32 56 28 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 80 31 55 25 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 81 33 56 26 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 83 34 58 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 85 35 58 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 88 36 58 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>044.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
309 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TOMORROW IS WITH HOW FAST THE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SNOW SHOWER
CHANCES TOMORROW MORNING ALONG WITH HOW COLD IT WILL BE.
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES PROVED TO BE A TAD TOO WARM TODAY
TO CAUSE MUCH IF ANY SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. 11.17Z RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE LOW
LEVELS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH INTO THIS EVENING TO MAINLY YIELD
RAIN WITH A BRIEF TRANSITION TO SNOW ON THE BACK/NORTH SIDE OF
THE BAND. THE 17.12Z HRRR/RAP SHOW THIS BAND GETTING SOUTH OF
DUBUQUE BY MID EVENING.
AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ROTATE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION AS A SHORT WAVE MID
LEVEL TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM ONTARIO. WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
WITH THIS TROUGH A SATURATED LAYER SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE
ICE NUCLEATION ZONE BELOW -8C WITH JUST ENOUGH LIFT FROM THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. 11.12Z WRF-ARW/NMM
REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKES OVER AND SHOULD
HELP TO CLEAR SKIES OUT A BIT GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND -15C.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW COMES IN ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO
THE EAST AND SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERING OPINIONS BETWEEN THE 11.12Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM WITH THIS BAND AND HOW STRONG THE WAA WILL BE.
THE GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH HAVING THE SNOW COME IN ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING WHILE THE NAM IS A TAD SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE WAA
AND PRODUCES A LITTLE MORE QPF. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE BOTH MUCH WEAKER
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HARDLY SHOW ANY QPF AT ALL...SO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER ANYTHING WILL OCCUR FROM THIS. COBB DATA
FROM THE GFS/NAM WOULD SAY A HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION OR LESS IF
THE SNOW DOES OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
ON FRIDAY THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH UNTIL THE
WEEKEND COMES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. REMOVED THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTH OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL RUN TO
THE WEST OF THE REGION. THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO COME ON
TUESDAY AS THE 11.12Z ECMWF BRINGS A SYSTEM OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 11.12Z GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WOULD BRING
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OUT
THERE...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
A BAND OF -RA...AND A LITTLE -SN...WITH MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
BAND LOOKS TO CLEAR THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 18-20Z WITH THE NORTH
WINDS BRINGING IN DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR...VFR VSBYS AND CIGS RISING
INTO THE 6K-10K FT RANGE. GENERALLY GOOD VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND SCT FLURRIES/-SHSN
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
BETWEEN 09Z-15Z WED. SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE THEN
LOOKS TO DECREASE THE CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATER WED
MORNING AND WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION.....RRS