Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/10/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1221 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
.UPDATE...WITH CLEARING FROM THE NORTH PUSHING THE SNOW
SOUTH...HAVE ENDED THE ADVISORIES OVER ZONE 39 AND CANCELLED THE
WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONE 33. HAVE ADDED FOG INTO THE
PLAINS FORECAST TONIGHT AS OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW THIS
DEVELOP AS SKIES CLEAR. MAY EXPERIENCE SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE
FOG TOWARDS MORNING....WILL KEEP MONITORING.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CIGS/VSBYS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOST
OF THE SNOW HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA AIRPORTS. CLEARING SKIES
LATE COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ISSUES THROUGH 15Z...WHICH
IS ALREADY ADDRESSED IN THE CURRENT TAF. CEILINGS TO THEN INCREASE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...BECOMING UNLIMITED BY 17Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014/
UPDATE...HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONE 35 AND
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 31..40 AND 45. ALTHOUGH
DRY AIR HAD INTRUDED FM THE NORTH THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE METRO AREA. WL HANG ONTO
THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR ZONES 33..34..36..39 AND 41. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN DENVER (AN INCH OR LESS) BUT EXPECT THE SNOW TO
DIE OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AVIATION...LOW CIGS/VSBYS WL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH 06Z AS LIGHT
SNOW HAS REDEVELOPED OVER DENVER BUT STILL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT (07Z). CLEARING SKIES LATE COULD LEAD TO
POTENTIAL FOG ISSUES WHICH IS ALREADY ADDRESSED IN THE CURRENT
TAF. DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THAT TEMPO GROUP IN THE
UPCOMING TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
SURFACE OBS INDICATING THE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER.
RADAR INDICATING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH THE AREA OF
HEAVIER SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. SNOW CONTINUING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND HAS BEEN HEAVY AT
TIMES EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SOME LOCATIONS GETTING CLOSE
TO A FOOT OF SNOW. LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DECREASING TREND IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN
BAND OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. BUT UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL
EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
CONTINUED ASCENT ALTHOUGH THE MAIN ASCENT TO REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD KEEP SNOW ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT. FOOTHILL
AREAS TO BE HELPED BY UPSLOPE. SOME DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWEST WHICH IMPROVES MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHICS. WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTH PARK GOING FOR TONIGHT. ACROSS PLAINS...EXPECT SNOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. ADVISORY FOR ZONES 39..40 AND 41 STILL SEEMS ON TRACK FOR
TONIGHT. SO FAR...SNOW HAS NOT AFFECTED TRAVEL OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS
LOWER VISIBILITY. BUT AS TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE
SNOW STICK TO THE ROADWAYS WHICH WOULD CREATE A SLOW COMMUTE. SNOW
AMOUNTS MAY END UP LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOW TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ON SATURDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH PARK DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT EXISTING SNOW COVER WILL LIMIT WARMUP.
LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ZONAL ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMUM IS PROGGED OVER COLORADO.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES SOUTH SETTLING ON COLORADO SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE
DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN NEUTRAL FORCING IS PROGGED WELL INTO MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...UPWARD ENERGY MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY...THEN SOME OF THE MODELS BRING IN
UPSLOPE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOW THE FRONT IN
HERE ON TUESDAY. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS PRETTY SPARSE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODELS HAVE INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. ON MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE INCREASES AND
DEEPENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS
A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP POPS OUT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN BRING SOME IN MONDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY`S HIGHS ARE 7-13 C
WARMER THAN SATURDAY`S. MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-3 C WARMER THAN
SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS
HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT ON THE ECMWF...THE GFS IS SLOWER AND KEEPS IT AROUND WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE
DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING. MORE UPPER TROUGHING IS POSSIBLE FOR
FRIDAY BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT GOOD.
AVIATION...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS AREA WITH IFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS. THE LIGHT SNOW
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHEAST
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE EVENING...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY 06Z. THE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 06Z
AND COME TO AND END AROUND 09Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY 10Z ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET
AGL FOR A SHORT TIME. CEILINGS TO THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING...BECOMING UNLIMITED BY 17Z. MFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ036.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RJK
UPDATE/AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1205 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST. ANY
EASTERLY COMPONENT PRODUCES A DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR THIS SIDE OF THE
DIVIDE...WHICH IS COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE FOR SNOW. AND AT THIS
TIME...WEB CAMS AND SURFACE OBS SHOW LITTLE ACTIVITY. WHILE SOME
AREAS OF SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING...LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 818 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS OBSERVATIONS AND CDOT WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW
FALLING ESPECIALLY OVER VAIL PASS. HRRR AND RAP13 CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT PRECIP FOR THE MTNS AND EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BEST MOISTURE AND ENHANCEMENT STAYING FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS SO EXTENSION OF ADVISORIES LOOKS A SAFE BET.
DID DROP WARNING FOR GRAND MESA WITH LITTLE...IF ANY...SNOW
ONGOING THERE. REST OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 549 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHICH IS JUST
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO HAVE ENDED SO WILL ALLOW THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.
SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT IT TO START
DYING OFF AS THE SUN SETS. REMAINING WARNING AND ADVISORIES CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CHUGS ACROSS WESTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AIDED BY CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SNOW
ACROSS THE WRN CO MTNS FROM RABBIT EARS AND VAIL PASSES TO THE SAN
JUAN MTNS. SNOW TO WATER RATIO HAS BEEN CLOSE TO 10:1 FOR VERY WET
SNOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED ACROSS ERN UT
AND NWRN CO. ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL...HAVE ALSO BE NOTED FROM THE UINTA BASIN TO
SOUTHWEST CO.
WHILE THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND CONVECTION DIES
DOWN AFTER SUNSET...NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE FAVORING NORTH FACING SLOPES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL KEEP THE VARIOUS WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT
IN PLACE... EXPIRING AT VARIOUS TIMES THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MTNS AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST SAN JUANS.
NORTHERLY FLOW COULD FAVOR LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW IN THE UNCOMPAHGRE
GORGE SOUTH OF OURAY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE STEAMBOAT VALLEY AND SOME CENTRAL VALLEYS
TONIGHT WHERE LENGTHY PRECIP AND WET GROUND SHOULD HELP MOISTEN THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER AS TEMPS COOL AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.
FINAL DEFORMATION/SHEAR AXIS ALOFT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT STABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING AND MOISTURE DECREASING. WILL ONLY GO WITH JUST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE
SAN JUANS SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO
SUNNIER SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING BUILDS AND EXPANDS EAST INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF CALM AND WARMER WEATHER BEFORE
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM THAT HAS GONE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE
AREA UNTIL TUESDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE LENGTH OF
TIME THIS WEATHER SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT
WHERE THE EC MOVES MOISTURE OUT THE AREA AND RETROGRADES AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPLITTING FROM THE ORIGINAL TROUGH WEST INTO UTAH WITH
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL SOME MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE
PACIFIC ON THURSDAY. WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE RECENT
STORMS HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION...AND THE TROUGHY
LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES...HOWEVER THE LENGTH OF PRECIPITATION
MODELED WITH THE GFS SEEMS TOO STRETCHED OUT IN TIME. THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 953 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NORTH-
FACING SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. BY MIDDAY SAT...ONLY A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WHERE SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS
OCCUR. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS UNTIL
AROUND 14Z...AND BEY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KEGE/KRIL/KMTJ/KSBS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1011 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ACROSS THE PIKES
PEAK REGION HAVE COME TO AN END...SO CANCELLED THE HILITES IN
THESE REGIONS. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR AREAS SW
AND S OF PUEBLO DOWN TO THE NM STATE LINE. /HODANISH
UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WET MTN VALLEY...AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
HUERFANO COUNTY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. THIS
DECISION BASED ON CURRENT REPORTS AND SHORT RANGE SIMULATIONS. /HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
AN UPR TROF WL CONTINUE MOVING ACRS THE STATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SAT...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SOUTHWEST CO THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH PCPN SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WL
CONTINUE SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH ACRS THE AREA. THE MTS AND HYR
ELEVATIONS ALREADY HAVE SNOW...AND AS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COOL THIS
EVENING...ANY RAIN WL CHANGE OVR THE SNOW. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WL GENERALLY FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER AND
NR THE EASTERN MTNS AND AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 OVER THE SERN
PLAINS...WHICH IS WHERE THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MODEL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH...BUT PROBABLY HAS THE GENERAL IDEA OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WL LIKELY OCCUR. WL USE A BLEND OF THE 12Z AND 18Z
NAM...THE GFS AND RAP FOR SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT.
BY LATE SAT MORNING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...BUT SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED OT LINGER OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND MTNS. IN THE MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OVR SRN AREAS. IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MOST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH DECREASED
CLOUDINESS...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVR THE SW MTS AND THE SRN SANGRES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CUTOFF WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT THAT ONLY SILENT POPS WILL BE NEEDED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES REACHING +4C TO +6C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAV AND MEX MAXIMUMS ARE TOO WARM AND
WERE IGNORED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR WITH SNOW COVER OR WET
SOILS. GIVEN THE WARMER MARCH SUN AND THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE...BELIEVE
ADJUSTMENTS WOULD BE MINOR. AS THE STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY...SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT COULD MOVE INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH AS A COUPLE
DEGREES OF WARMING FROM SUNDAY. ONLY HAVE SILENT POPS ON MONDAY
FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE DRY.
.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NEXT STRONG TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION . AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES COLORADO...THERE COULD BE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVER THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. ENSEMBLES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN SPEED...LOCATION AND PRECIPITATION
TOTALS...AND THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.
DECIDED NOT TO ALTER GRIDS FROM CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE MUCH AND
ONLY HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM IN THE AFD. IN CURRENT
PACKAGE...INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED CATEGORY ON THE PLAINS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY. CURRENT MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SYSTEM WOULD BE WEAK.
MOST ENSEMBLES MEMBERS ARE DRY WITH A FEW MEMBERS SUGGESTING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GRIDS FOR FRIDAY HAVE SOME
ISOLATED POPS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHICH MATCHES THE MAIN
IDEA IN THE ENSEMBLES. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AT ALL 3 TAF SITES IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT SHOULD SHOW A DECREASING TREND AS TIME GOES
ON. AFTER SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE WITH VFR AT ALL TAF
SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ072>075-
078>080-087-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ094-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061-063-066-068-076-077-083-086.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
954 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS OBSERVATIONS AND CDOT WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW
FALLING ESPECIALLY OVER VAIL PASS. HRRR AND RAP13 CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT PRECIP FOR THE MTNS AND EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BEST MOISTURE AND ENHANCEMENT STAYING FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS SO EXTENSION OF ADVISORIES LOOKS A SAFE BET.
DID DROP WARNING FOR GRAND MESA WITH LITTLE...IF ANY...SNOW
ONGOING THERE. REST OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 549 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHICH IS JUST
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO HAVE ENDED SO WILL ALLOW THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.
SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT IT TO START
DYING OFF AS THE SUN SETS. REMAINING WARNING AND ADVISORIES CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CHUGS ACROSS WESTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AIDED BY CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SNOW
ACROSS THE WRN CO MTNS FROM RABBIT EARS AND VAIL PASSES TO THE SAN
JUAN MTNS. SNOW TO WATER RATIO HAS BEEN CLOSE TO 10:1 FOR VERY WET
SNOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED ACROSS ERN UT
AND NWRN CO. ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL...HAVE ALSO BE NOTED FROM THE UINTA BASIN TO
SOUTHWEST CO.
WHILE THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND CONVECTION DIES
DOWN AFTER SUNSET...NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE FAVORING NORTH FACING SLOPES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL KEEP THE VARIOUS WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT
IN PLACE... EXPIRING AT VARIOUS TIMES THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MTNS AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST SAN JUANS.
NORTHERLY FLOW COULD FAVOR LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW IN THE UNCOMPAHGRE
GORGE SOUTH OF OURAY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE STEAMBOAT VALLEY AND SOME CENTRAL VALLEYS
TONIGHT WHERE LENGTHY PRECIP AND WET GROUND SHOULD HELP MOISTEN THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER AS TEMPS COOL AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.
FINAL DEFORMATION/SHEAR AXIS ALOFT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT STABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING AND MOISTURE DECREASING. WILL ONLY GO WITH JUST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE
SAN JUANS SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO
SUNNIER SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING BUILDS AND EXPANDS EAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF CALM AND WARMER WEATHER BEFORE WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM THAT HAS GONE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE LENGTH OF TIME THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE THE
EC MOVES MOISTURE OUT THE AREA AND RETROGRADES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPLITTING FROM THE ORIGINAL TROUGH WEST INTO UTAH WITH LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL SOME MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE PACIFIC ON
THURSDAY. WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE RECENT STORMS HAVE
BEEN CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION...AND THE TROUGHY LONGWAVE PATTERN
CONTINUES...HOWEVER THE LENGTH OF PRECIPITATION MODELED WITH THE
GFS SEEMS TOO STRETCHED OUT IN TIME. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 953 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NORTH-
FACING SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. BY MIDDAY SAT...ONLY A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WHERE SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS
OCCUR. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS UNTIL
AROUND 14Z...AND BEY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KEGE/KRIL/KMTJ/KSBS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT ABOVE 9000
FEET FOR COZ010-012-018.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
927 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONE 35 AND
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 31..40 AND 45. ALTHOUGH
DRY AIR HAD INTRUDED FM THE NORTH THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE METRO AREA. WL HANG ONTO
THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR ZONES 33..34..36..39 AND 41. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN DENVER (AN INCH OR LESS) BUT EXPECT THE SNOW TO
DIE OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CIGS/VSBYS WL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH 06Z AS LIGHT
SNOW HAS REDEVELOPED OVER DENVER BUT STILL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT (07Z). CLEARING SKIES LATE COULD LEAD TO
POTENTIAL FOG ISSUES WHICH IS ALREADY ADDRESSED IN THE CURRENT
TAF. DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THAT TEMPO GROUP IN THE
UPCOMING TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
SURFACE OBS INDICATING THE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER.
RADAR INDICATING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH THE AREA OF
HEAVIER SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. SNOW CONTINUING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND HAS BEEN HEAVY AT
TIMES EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SOME LOCATIONS GETTING CLOSE
TO A FOOT OF SNOW. LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DECREASING TREND IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN
BAND OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. BUT UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL
EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
CONTINUED ASCENT ALTHOUGH THE MAIN ASCENT TO REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD KEEP SNOW ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT. FOOTHILL
AREAS TO BE HELPED BY UPSLOPE. SOME DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWEST WHICH IMPROVES MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHICS. WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTH PARK GOING FOR TONIGHT. ACROSS PLAINS...EXPECT SNOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. ADVISORY FOR ZONES 39..40 AND 41 STILL SEEMS ON TRACK FOR
TONIGHT. SO FAR...SNOW HAS NOT AFFECTED TRAVEL OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS
LOWER VISIBILITY. BUT AS TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE
SNOW STICK TO THE ROADWAYS WHICH WOULD CREATE A SLOW COMMUTE. SNOW
AMOUNTS MAY END UP LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOW TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ON SATURDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH PARK DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT EXISTING SNOW COVER WILL LIMIT WARMUP.
LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ZONAL ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMUM IS PROGGED OVER COLORADO.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES SOUTH SETTLING ON COLORADO SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE
DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN NEUTRAL FORCING IS PROGGED WELL INTO MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...UPWARD ENERGY MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY...THEN SOME OF THE MODELS BRING IN
UPSLOPE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOW THE FRONT IN
HERE ON TUESDAY. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS PRETTY SPARSE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODELS HAVE INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. ON MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE INCREASES AND
DEEPENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS
A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP POPS OUT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN BRING SOME IN MONDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY`S HIGHS ARE 7-13 C
WARMER THAN SATURDAY`S. MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-3 C WARMER THAN
SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS
HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT ON THE ECMWF...THE GFS IS SLOWER AND KEEPS IT AROUND WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE
DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING. MORE UPPER TROUGHING IS POSSIBLE FOR
FRIDAY BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT GOOD.
AVIATION...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS AREA WITH IFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS. THE LIGHT SNOW
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHEAST
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE EVENING...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY 06Z. THE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 06Z
AND COME TO AND END AROUND 09Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY 10Z ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET
AGL FOR A SHORT TIME. CEILINGS TO THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING...BECOMING UNLIMITED BY 17Z. MFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ041.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ039.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ036.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ033-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
845 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAMS. SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW RIDES NORTHEASTWARD OVER EASTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF A
LARGE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE BAJA REGION. THIS FLOW
THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN NATURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THESE FEATURES WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS KEEPING OUR REGION WITHIN A FAST UPPER LEVEL
BUT BENIGN WESTERLY FLOW. A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO RESULTS FROM A HIGHLY DIVERGENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE RRQ OF STRONG UPPER JET EXITING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST...COMBINED WITH A SHARP INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE FADING OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER JET SUPPORT EXITS AWAY...AND
THE ONLY IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE A BATCH OF THIN HIGH LEVEL
BLOWOFF CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD.
CONDITIONS ARE QUIET AND DRY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MID-EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING OUT OF THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S AT MOST SPOTS.
A STRONG SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION THAT DEVELOPED THIS PAST AFTERNOON
IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL TERRESTRIAL
HEATING...AND THE GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL END SHORTLY.
THE CALM AND FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THOSE LEAVING THE HOUSE EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
A DRY AND WARM DAY WILL START OUT THE WORK WEEK ON MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST TO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. ONCE AGAIN...THE LIGHT GRADIENT AND
STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING WILL FORCE A DEFINED SEA-BREEZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DROP COASTAL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE
NORTH OF PINELLAS COUNTY MAY EVEN DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
60S...CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST NASA SPORT SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ANALYSIS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
AWAITS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION TO KICK IT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE STATE ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST AND IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...
10/00Z-11/00Z: PREVAILING VFR..EXCEPT 09Z-14Z AT LAL/SRQ/PGD/FMY/RSW
WHERE BR/FG RESULTS IN MVFR VSBY BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT LCL IFR. THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL COLLAPSE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING. BAY/SEA BREEZES RETURN FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY TO ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE STATE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 57 76 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 58 81 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 56 81 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 57 76 59 77 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 46 78 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 59 77 61 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JELSEMA
AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
117 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT RAIN AND LIGHT
WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HRRR
INDICATES VISIBILITY LOWERING TO LESS THAN ONE-HALF OF A MILE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS SHOWED LESS OF A
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. BASED ON CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURE...LIGHT
WIND...AND THE HRRR BELIEVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING A SUNNY
DAY WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
LATELY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH HIGHS NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE
DIFFUSE SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WITH H85 WESTERLY FLOW. THE H5 FLOW APPEARS
CONFLUENT. WE KEPT THE SHOWER CHANCE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AS
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. BELIEVE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW RIDGING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAINTAINING A DRY AIR MASS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A SLUG
OF MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REACHING OUR AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH COOLING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP.
AGS ALREADY EXPERIENCING LIFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG TONIGHT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR.
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 15Z...WITH VFR RETURNING TO ALL TAF
SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION AND UPSTREAM AREAS LEADING TO
RISES ON AREA RIVERS. CONSULT OUR WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON ANY RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1149 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY
FROM OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND
PROVIDING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE NC/CA COAST LATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY
AIR ALOFT SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND DRY AIR ALOFT ALL POINT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. HRRR MODEL INDICATE FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND PIEDMONT...
SPREADING EAST INTO THE MIDLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS ALABAMA SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S STILL LOOK GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...FLATTENING A LITTLE AS WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. COULD BE A FEW MID
TO HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM
BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUN. DRIER AIR AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
STORE FOR THE WEEKEND OVERALL. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE WITH HIGHS AND LOWS AT OR
JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS SIMILAR KEEPING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH
ALTERNATING WEAK RIDGES OR SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. MAIN CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS TROF PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / MIDWEST WITH SC ON
SOUTHERN FRINGE...BETTER DYNAMICS STAY NORTH. MOISTURE STILL A
QUESTION WITH ECMWF A LITTLE WETTER THAN GFS MODEL...ECMX MOS
GUIDANCE NEAR LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY...GFS MOS DRIER. MODELS HINT
AT SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE PULLED INTO TROF AS IT MOVES EAST...COULD
POSSIBLY INCREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER SC. HAVE IT HANDLED WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...SEEMS REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT. OTHER WISE
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK...LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP.
AGS ALREADY EXPERIENCING LIFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG TONIGHT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HRRR MODEL INDICATE
FOG DEVELOPING AT AGS/DNL BY 06Z...AND INTO CAE/CUB AROUND 10Z.
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 15Z...WITH VFR RETURNING TO ALL TAF
SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION AND UPSTREAM AREAS LEADING TO
RISES ON AREA RIVERS. CONSULT OUR WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON ANY RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1217 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE REGION TODAY. A BRIEF MIX OF SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 40S IN EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA. COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
DIFFICULT INTRICACIES WRT NEAR TERM FORECAST. 00 UTC NAM12 APPEARS
DEFICIENT IN ANALYSIS/PROG OF MAX T/TW ALOFT PER LAPS SNDGS/PLAN
VIEW COMPARO AND CATCHUP TREND OF MORE RECENT RUC13 RUNS. PERHAPS
ATTRIBUTABLE TO OVERALL STRENGTH OF UPSTREAM MID TROPOSPHERIC JETLET
AND COHERENT/SYMBIOTIC MELD OF SUCCINCT SRN STREAM EJECTION INTO
MOUTH OF OH RIVER AND LOW AMPLITUDE NRN WAVE ACRS WI/IA DESCENDING
SEWD INTO REGION. LEADING 5H HFC IN 40-50M/12 HR RANGE RESULTANT
DEEPENING OF STRONGLY POS TILLTED 925-8H TROF AXIS FM SRN ONT INTO
NRN IL...PROVIDING INCRSD WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INADVOF AND WELL LEFT
OF SFC FNTL POSITION THIS AM. TRACK OF SHORTWAVE AND FGEN FOCUS
FAVOR HIEST POPS GNRLY EITHER SIDE OF TOLL ROAD. PTYPE OBVIOUSLY A
CONCERN...THOUGH INITIAL PTYPE SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID INTO MID AM WITH
SUFCNT DEPTH OF WARM TW...AS WAS SEEN WITH LEAD MID LVL MSTR AXIS
NOW INTO NWRN OH. SLIGHT CONCERN FOR POCKETS OF FZG RAIN ACRS FAR
NWRN CWA WHERE SFC TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FZG ATTM...BUT WITH MAJORITY
OF MESONET SITES THERE AND UPSTREAM ABOVE FZG WITH SMALL T/TD
SPREADS WL HOLD FOR LIQUID DOMINANT. TRACK OF SRN STREAM DCVA INTO
SRN CWA AND KILX HYDROCLASSIFICATION WITH SOME GRAUPEL WILL RELEGATE
CHC SLEET MAINLY TO ALONG/SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. GRADUAL N/S COLLAPSE OF
THERMAL PROFILES TO BRING CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW...SAVE FOR FAR SERN
CWA WHERE NEAR SFC TEMPS LKLY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST PARTIAL MELT WITH
CHCS FOR MIXED RA/SN INTO AFTN. SLIGHT LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
AS CORE OF 925MB THERMAL TROF SETTLES ACRS CWA ATOP STRONG PLAINS
SFC HIGH TO BECOMES SPRAWLED FM SRN PLAINS NEWD TOWARD WRN LK ERIE
BY 12 UTC SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM WITH WARMER AIR TRYING TO WORK BACK
INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS +6 C...LOW
PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH MAY SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...LIMITING POTENTIAL HEATING. FULL
MIXING POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS WELL WITH AT BEST 925 MB WHERE
COLD POCKET WILL REMAIN. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DECENT GRADIENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH ALL AREAS CLIMBING ABOUT FREEZING BUT VARYING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S SOUTH. ADDED SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING THERMAL PROFILES ALL POINT TOWARDS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AS TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE SW STATES.
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WANES QUICKLY STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DETAILS ON POTENTIAL
PHASING OF NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
SEVERAL RUNS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF AND SHOWS A
FURTHER SOUTH...LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. WITH IT NO LONGER BEING IN
THE MINORITY FOR THE STRONGER SYSTEM...BEST COURSE OF ACTION WOULD
BE TO LOWER POPS (AS ALLBLEND DOES). HOWEVER...SINCE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO BE ADEQUATELY SAMPLED YET AND MORE FLUCTUATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...CONSISTENCY IS WARRANTED WITH NO CHANGES TO POPS. TEMPS
WILL COOL OFF BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S DUE TO CLOUD COVER/START
OF BRIEF SHOT OF CAA WEDS. MODELS BEGIN TO WITH GFS INITIALLY FASTER
WITH RETURN OF WARMER AIR BUT ECMWF PICKS UP THE PACE WITH BOTH
MODELS SHOWING ABOVE ZERO 850 MB TEMPS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND 3 TO 5
C TEMPS FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE 40S AND LIKELY SOME 50S BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES TO SEND THE ROLLER COASTER BACK DOWN THE TRACK. THURS-SAT
PERIOD
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
-DZSN AND IFR/LOW MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH FRONTAL WAVE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTN AT SBN AND MID/LATE AFTN AT FWA.
SIGNIFICANT DRYING/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
AND DEPARTING ELEVATED FRONT WILL SUPPORT IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT MVFR
STRATUS MAY LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED IN TAFS AS 925 MB
RIDGE AXIS DOESN`T WORK THROUGH UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ALSO COULD
SEE BR VIS RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH SFC RIDGE
BUILDING/CLEARING SKIES/LINGERING BL MOISTURE WITHIN THINNING
INVERSION...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES LOOKS TO BE WEST OF FWA/SBN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
652 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE REGION TODAY. A BRIEF MIX OF SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 40S IN EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA. COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
DIFFICULT INTRICACIES WRT NEAR TERM FORECAST. 00 UTC NAM12 APPEARS
DEFICIENT IN ANALYSIS/PROG OF MAX T/TW ALOFT PER LAPS SNDGS/PLAN
VIEW COMPARO AND CATCHUP TREND OF MORE RECENT RUC13 RUNS. PERHAPS
ATTRIBUTABLE TO OVERALL STRENGTH OF UPSTREAM MID TROPOSPHERIC JETLET
AND COHERENT/SYMBIOTIC MELD OF SUCCINCT SRN STREAM EJECTION INTO
MOUTH OF OH RIVER AND LOW AMPLITUDE NRN WAVE ACRS WI/IA DESCENDING
SEWD INTO REGION. LEADING 5H HFC IN 40-50M/12 HR RANGE RESULTANT
DEEPENING OF STRONGLY POS TILLTED 925-8H TROF AXIS FM SRN ONT INTO
NRN IL...PROVIDING INCRSD WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INADVOF AND WELL LEFT
OF SFC FNTL POSITION THIS AM. TRACK OF SHORTWAVE AND FGEN FOCUS
FAVOR HIEST POPS GNRLY EITHER SIDE OF TOLL ROAD. PTYPE OBVIOUSLY A
CONCERN...THOUGH INITIAL PTYPE SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID INTO MID AM WITH
SUFCNT DEPTH OF WARM TW...AS WAS SEEN WITH LEAD MID LVL MSTR AXIS
NOW INTO NWRN OH. SLIGHT CONCERN FOR POCKETS OF FZG RAIN ACRS FAR
NWRN CWA WHERE SFC TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FZG ATTM...BUT WITH MAJORITY
OF MESONET SITES THERE AND UPSTREAM ABOVE FZG WITH SMALL T/TD
SPREADS WL HOLD FOR LIQUID DOMINANT. TRACK OF SRN STREAM DCVA INTO
SRN CWA AND KILX HYDROCLASSIFICATION WITH SOME GRAUPEL WILL RELEGATE
CHC SLEET MAINLY TO ALONG/SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. GRADUAL N/S COLLAPSE OF
THERMAL PROFILES TO BRING CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW...SAVE FOR FAR SERN
CWA WHERE NEAR SFC TEMPS LKLY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST PARTIAL MELT WITH
CHCS FOR MIXED RA/SN INTO AFTN. SLIGHT LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
AS CORE OF 925MB THERMAL TROF SETTLES ACRS CWA ATOP STRONG PLAINS
SFC HIGH TO BECOMES SPRAWLED FM SRN PLAINS NEWD TOWARD WRN LK ERIE
BY 12 UTC SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM WITH WARMER AIR TRYING TO WORK BACK
INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS +6 C...LOW
PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH MAY SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...LIMITING POTENTIAL HEATING. FULL
MIXING POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS WELL WITH AT BEST 925 MB WHERE
COLD POCKET WILL REMAIN. HAVE CONITNUED WITH A DECENT GRADIENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH ALL AREAS CLIMBING ABOUT FREEZING BUT VARYING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S SOUTH. ADDED SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING THERMAL PROFILES ALL POINT TOWARDS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AS TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE SW STATES.
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WANES QUICKLY STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS CONITNUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DETAILS ON POTENTIAL
PHASING OF NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
SEVERAL RUNS THE MORE AGRESSIVE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF AND SHOWS A
FURTHER SOUTH...LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. WITH IT NO LONGER BEING IN
THE MINORITY FOR THE STRONGER SYSTEM...BEST COURSE OF ACTION WOULD
BE TO LOWER POPS (AS ALLBLEND DOES). HOWEVER...SINCE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO BE ADEQUATELY SAMPLED YET AND MORE FLUCUATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...CONSISTENCY IS WARRANTED WITH NO CHANGES TO POPS. TEMPS
WILL COOL OFF BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S DUE TO CLOUD COVER/START
OF BRIEF SHOT OF CAA WEDS. MODELS BEGIN TO WITH GFS INITIALLY FASTER
WITH RETURN OF WARMER AIR BUT ECMWF PICKS UP THE PACE WITH BOTH
MODELS SHOWING ABOVE ZERO 850 MB TEMPS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND 3 TO 5
C TEMPS FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE 40S AND LIKELY SOME 50S BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES TO SEND THE ROLLER COASTER BACK DOWN THE TRACK. THURS-SAT
PERIOD
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
FOCUS REMAINS ON UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND THERMAL PROFILES WITH
PRECIP INTO NWRN IN ATTM. PRIMARILY TRANSITION FROM RAPL TO SNOW
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT ZR/ZL PSBL...THOUGH
POINT/AIRFIELD CHCS TOO LOW FOR MENTION. PRIMARILY FUELING/ALT
REQUIREMENTS TEMPO IFR AT KSBN THROUGH 20 UTC...AND SLIGHTLY LATER
15-21 UTC. TRAILING EDGE OF PRECIP AS IT SHUNTS SWD THROUGH THE
DAY COULD LOSE ICE NUCLEATION WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF ZL
PSBL...THOUGH AGAIN POINT CHCS QUITE LOW. SUBSIDENCE AND INCRSD
ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AID IN AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING SAT NIGHT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
510 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE REGION TODAY. A BRIEF MIX OF SLEET IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 24.
OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 40S
IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA. COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD TONIGHT WITH
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
DIFFICULT INTRICACIES WRT NEAR TERM FORECAST. 00 UTC NAM12 APPEARS
DEFICIENT IN ANALYSIS/PROG OF MAX T/TW ALOFT PER LAPS SNDGS/PLAN
VIEW COMPARO AND CATCHUP TREND OF MORE RECENT RUC13 RUNS. PERHAPS
ATTRIBUTABLE TO OVERALL STRENGTH OF UPSTREAM MID TROPOSPHERIC JETLET
AND COHERENT/SYMBIOTIC MELD OF SUCCINCT SRN STREAM EJECTION INTO
MOUTH OF OH RIVER AND LOW AMPLITUDE NRN WAVE ACRS WI/IA DESCENDING
SEWD INTO REGION. LEADING 5H HFC IN 40-50M/12 HR RANGE RESULTANT
DEEPENING OF STRONGLY POS TILLTED 925-8H TROF AXIS FM SRN ONT INTO
NRN IL...PROVIDING INCRSD WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INADVOF AND WELL LEFT
OF SFC FNTL POSITION THIS AM. TRACK OF SHORTWAVE AND FGEN FOCUS
FAVOR HIEST POPS GNRLY EITHER SIDE OF TOLL ROAD. PTYPE OBVIOUSLY A
CONCERN...THOUGH INITIAL PTYPE SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID INTO MID AM WITH
SUFCNT DEPTH OF WARM TW...AS WAS SEEN WITH LEAD MID LVL MSTR AXIS
NOW INTO NWRN OH. SLIGHT CONCERN FOR POCKETS OF FZG RAIN ACRS FAR
NWRN CWA WHERE SFC TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FZG ATTM...BUT WITH MAJORITY
OF MESONET SITES THERE AND UPSTREAM ABOVE FZG WITH SMALL T/TD
SPREADS WL HOLD FOR LIQUID DOMINANT. TRACK OF SRN STREAM DCVA INTO
SRN CWA AND KILX HYDROCLASSIFICATION WITH SOME GRAUPEL WILL RELEGATE
CHC SLEET MAINLY TO ALONG/SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. GRADUAL N/S COLLAPSE OF
THERMAL PROFILES TO BRING CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW...SAVE FOR FAR SERN
CWA WHERE NEAR SFC TEMPS LKLY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST PARTIAL MELT WITH
CHCS FOR MIXED RA/SN INTO AFTN. SLIGHT LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
AS CORE OF 925MB THERMAL TROF SETTLES ACRS CWA ATOP STRONG PLAINS
SFC HIGH TO BECOMES SPRAWLED FM SRN PLAINS NEWD TOWARD WRN LK ERIE
BY 12 UTC SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM WITH WARMER AIR TRYING TO WORK BACK
INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS +6 C...LOW
PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH MAY SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...LIMITING POTENTIAL HEATING. FULL
MIXING POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS WELL WITH AT BEST 925 MB WHERE
COLD POCKET WILL REMAIN. HAVE CONITNUED WITH A DECENT GRADIENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH ALL AREAS CLIMBING ABOUT FREEZING BUT VARYING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S SOUTH. ADDED SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING THERMAL PROFILES ALL POINT TOWARDS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AS TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE SW STATES.
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WANES QUICKLY STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS CONITNUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DETAILS ON POTENTIAL
PHASING OF NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
SEVERAL RUNS THE MORE AGRESSIVE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF AND SHOWS A
FURTHER SOUTH...LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. WITH IT NO LONGER BEING IN
THE MINORITY FOR THE STRONGER SYSTEM...BEST COURSE OF ACTION WOULD
BE TO LOWER POPS (AS ALLBLEND DOES). HOWEVER...SINCE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO BE ADEQUATELY SAMPLED YET AND MORE FLUCUATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...CONSISTENCY IS WARRANTED WITH NO CHANGES TO POPS. TEMPS
WILL COOL OFF BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S DUE TO CLOUD COVER/START
OF BRIEF SHOT OF CAA WEDS. MODELS BEGIN TO WITH GFS INITIALLY FASTER
WITH RETURN OF WARMER AIR BUT ECMWF PICKS UP THE PACE WITH BOTH
MODELS SHOWING ABOVE ZERO 850 MB TEMPS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND 3 TO 5
C TEMPS FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE 40S AND LIKELY SOME 50S BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES TO SEND THE ROLLER COASTER BACK DOWN THE TRACK. THURS-SAT
PERIOD
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
NARROW AXIS OF LIGHT RAFL APPROACHING KSBN...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF
LULL UNTIL APPROACH OF UPSTREAM LOW AMPLITUDE TROF LATER THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS ADDNL LIGHT PRECIP. AS COLUMN SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY COOLED BY THEN...EXPECT SN TO BE DOMINANT WITH 5-6
HOURS OF PRIMARILY LOW END MVFR/FUELING-ALT REQUIREMENTS AND
SHORTER DURATION/3HR TEMPO IFR CONDS AT PEAK OF PRECIP/SATURATION
DEPTH. IMPROVING CONDS BY LATE AFTN/EVE AS STRONG SFC RIDGE OVR
DAKOTAS BECOMES SPRAWLED FM SWRN GRTLKS INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER/MURPHY
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1135 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
AFTER A MILD DAY TODAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND A BRIEF
COOL DOWN INTO SUNDAY. SPRING-LIKE WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS BRINGS A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 952 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACKS. ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS
IN THE GRIDS MAINLY TO LOWER CLOUD INCREASE A LITTLE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST. NO ZFP OR OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUIET NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL BE PRECEDED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM AND THE RAP TO A LESSER EXTENT HINT AT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
UNDERDOING DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CURRENTLY...AND CONSEQUENTLY
SUSPECT THEY MAY BE OVERDOING POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SIMILAR SETUP TO THIS
MORNING WITH LOCALIZED SHALLOW GROUND FOG. DRIER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
DELAY ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SLOWLY AS IT ORIENTS QUASI-PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW PATTERN. THE
DEPARTURE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
MORNING...WILL WEAKEN THE FRONT FURTHER AS IT COMES UP AGAINST
REMNANT SURFACE RIDGING. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT PRESENT
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...HARD TO JUSTIFY MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE
POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PRECIP BEGINNING AS SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT RAIN...GRADUALLY MIXING WITH THEN CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS CRITICAL THICKNESSES FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. NO SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE EXPANSION OF
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE MILD TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SPRING TEASE FOR
MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. PASSAGE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY SUPPORTS SOME WIND
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MIXING IS MAXIMIZED. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS...SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ENABLE TEMPS
TO RISE CLOSER TO WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. TRENDED WITH WARMER MAVMOS
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION REESTABLISHES BY LATE DAY. WENT A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR MONDAY HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE TEMPS. THINK MANY LOCATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT 60 DEGREES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAVMOS WAS ALSO PREFERRED FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL THERMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON A SYSTEM MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
BRING SOME RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WIDE IN HANDLING...AND AS SUCH
DISCREPANCIES PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DETAIL REGARDING THE
SYSTEM.
WILL ACCEPT MIDDLING CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH LOOKS GOOD TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING COLDER AND GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION BUT THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
ALLBLEND TEMPS WERE REASONABLE AND FEW CHANGES REQUIRED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 080600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES APPEAR WITHIN REACH OVERNIGHT...SO EXPECTING
LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY TEND TO RETARD FOG
DEVELOPMENT. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...BUT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH CLOUD
COVER...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR
NOW.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE TAF SITES FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST...ROUGHLY FROM 081000Z-081600Z. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOP IN THE POST FRONTAL ZONE OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY...BUT IT APPEARS IF
ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP...IT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES.
AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE POST FRONTAL
ZONE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING BY
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO 340-360
DEGREES BEHIND COLD FRONT...WITH SPEEDS 10-12 KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1027 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOWED A BAND OF SLEET JUST SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE WICHITA AREA...EXTENDING FROM THE FLINT HILLS OF BUTLER
COUNTY INTO SUMNER AND COWLEY COUNTIES. THE RUC AND LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT MIXED WINTRY PRECIP OF SLEET
AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH AND
EAST OF GREATER WICHITA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE EXPANDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. PRECIP WILL LIKELY
WANE BEFORE ADVISORY EXPIRATION AND IT MAY BE CANCELLED BY THE
TIME THE NEW ROUTINE FORECAST IS ISSUED AT MID-AFTERNOON. DEPSPITE
TEMPS AROUND FREEZING...THE INTENSITY OF SLEET AND PERHAPS SOME
SNOW MAY ALLOW FOR AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION IN THE ADVISORY
AREAS.
KED
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
A TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS ALREADY CAUSED PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SNOW AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND ON THE FLIP SIDE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT JUST
SOUTH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
AFTER A TRICKY FORECAST TODAY...A WARM UP WILL ENSUE THROUGH
MONDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS
RELATIVELY LOW. THE NAM AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL TOTALS...BUT THERE ARE
TWO BANDS OF SNOW...ONE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE SECOND ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE. THE BAND OVER CENTRAL KANSAS IS THE
FIRST TO BE CALLED INTO QUESTION...AS THE GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH OF
THIS DEVELOPING CURRENTLY...I.E. BEFORE 12Z/MARCH 8TH AND THAT
HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE RUSSELL TO SALINE COUNTY AREA.
THUS...STRONGLY QUESTION THAT SOLUTION. THE SECOND AREA IS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. STILL THINK THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATION TOTALS
WILL NEAR ONE INCH BEFORE MELTING. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT ADVISORY
ALONE FOR HARPER AND KINGMAN COUNTIES...BUT THINK THE HIGHEST
TOTALS WILL BE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. TEMPS TODAY WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S AND EVEN LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KANSAS...SO ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS SHOULD MELT FAIRLY QUICKLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND IN THE 70S BY MONDAY.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
THE TIME PERIOD OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED IS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. COMMON THEMES AMONG THE
GUIDANCE DESPITE SOME DESCREPANCES ARE 1. THE TIMING AND 2. THE
STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE DESCREPANCES EXIST WITH
REGARD TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE
GFS AND NAM KEEP THE SYSTEM MAINLY DRY WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO KEEP IT FAIRLY WET. HAVE GONE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIPITATION IS LOW. REGARDLESS A POTENT COLD
FRONT WITH VERY STRONG AND COLD NORTH WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT TAKE TO MUCH OF A HIT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST 6 TO
12 HOURS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER NM TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...
SOME MVFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KICT/KHUT AND EVENTUALLY KCNU. ONLY EXPECTING THE SNOW TO LAST
ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS...AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING AND SYSTEM
TREKS RAPIDLY TO THE EAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
AS THIS SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EAST...EXPECT VFR CIGS TO RETURN TO
MOST LOCATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
ACTUALLY BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
KETCHAM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE LOW TODAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AND
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 38 25 63 35 / 60 10 0 0
HUTCHINSON 39 26 65 36 / 30 0 0 0
NEWTON 39 25 62 37 / 30 10 0 0
ELDORADO 37 24 63 37 / 60 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 37 24 62 34 / 90 10 0 0
RUSSELL 45 28 68 37 / 30 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 43 27 65 36 / 30 0 0 0
SALINA 42 26 66 38 / 30 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 40 25 64 37 / 30 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 38 24 64 34 / 90 30 0 0
CHANUTE 38 23 64 35 / 80 10 0 0
IOLA 38 23 63 35 / 80 10 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 38 24 65 36 / 90 20 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ069-
070-082-091>094-098.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
818 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY THEN MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
815AM UPDATE...
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION UP TO 925
MB (+3C). WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO MIX UP TO THIS LEVEL WHICH
WHEN EXTRAPOLATED DOWN TO THE SURFACE YIELDS A TEMPERATURE OF 46
DEGREES. AS A RESULT... EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF. ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS
CLOUD COVER SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD LIMIT
HEATING... BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM RISING WELL
INTO THE 40S. MOUNTAINS ARE IN A COOLER AIR MASS... DO NOT HAVE
THIS SHARP INVERSION... AND WILL BE SEEING COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT TODAY SO TEMPERATURES THERE WILL NOT BE AS WARM. HAVE
UPDATED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS TO REFLECT
THESE THOUGHTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR PORTLAND SHOULD BE
AROUND 21Z.
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. SOME OF
THIS CLOUDINESS WILL DIMINISH AS THE MOISTURE ATTEMPTS TO REACH
THE COASTLINE. AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS...ADDED TERRAIN KICK
MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
USED A BLEND OF WARM MAV NUMBERS WITH COOLER MET READINGS. THIS
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN QUITE SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A SHORT
WAVE MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION
TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME CLOUDINESS SKIRTING SOUTHERN AREAS.
IT WILL BE BACK TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION REMAINS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG
MARCH SUN WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S DESPITE H8 TEMPS IN THE -14 TO -16C RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COUPLE OF MINOR CLIPPERS MOVING THRU THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. COLD
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE BIG QUESTION
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE IF THE DIGGING NORTHERN
TROUGH THRU THE MIDWEST CAN PHASE WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY BEING
KICKED NE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE
NOT PHASING THE SYSTEMS ALLOWING NOTHING MORE THAN A WEAK NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH TO MOVE THRU ON THURSDAY. THE EURO HAS ALSO BACKED
OFF WITH THE PHASING OF THE SYSTEMS. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
THOUGH SO STAYED WITH THE SUPERBLEND AND MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THRU THE OUTLOOK PERIOD
LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT THE EXTREME COLD OF THE PAST
WEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY BECOMING MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR SEAS AS OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS A
FEW 5 AND 6 FOOTERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRU WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...RM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
638 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY THEN MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FROPA FOR PORTLAND SHOULD BE AROUND 21Z.
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. SOME OF
THIS CLOUDINESS WILL DIMINISH AS THE MOISTURE ATTEMPTS TO REACH
THE COASTLINE. AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS...ADDED TERRAIN KICK MAY ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.
USED A BLEND OF WARM MAV NUMBERS WITH COOLER MET READINGS. THIS
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN QUITE SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A SHORT
WAVE MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION
TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME CLOUDINESS SKIRTING SOUTHERN AREAS.
IT WILL BE BACK TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION REMAINS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG
MARCH SUN WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S DESPITE H8 TEMPS IN THE -14 TO -16C RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COUPLE OF MINOR CLIPPERS MOVING THRU THE WNWLY FLOW ALFT WILL
PRODUCE SCT SNW SHWRS SUN NIGHT THRU TUE. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FOR WED. THE BIG QUESTION FOR WED NIGHT AND THU WILL BE
IF THE DIGGING NRN TROF THRU THE MIDWEST CAN PHASE WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY BEING KICKED NEWD FROM THE SRN STREAM. AT THIS TIME THE
MODELS ARE NOT PHASING THE SYSTEMS ALLOWING NOTHING MORE THAN A
WEAK NRN STREAM TROF TO MOVE THRU ON THU. THE EURO HAS ALSO BACKED
OFF WITH THE PHASING OF THE SYSTEMS. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
THOUGH SO STAYED WITH THE SUPERBLEND AND MAINLY CHC POPS FOR WED
NIGHT AND THU. TEMPS THRU THE OUTLOOK PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN BLO
NORMAL BUT NOT THE EXTREME COLD OF THE PAST WEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...
VFR CONDS SUN BECOMING MVFR SUN NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT SNW SHWRS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR SEAS AS OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS A
FEW 5 AND 6 FOOTERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA THRU WED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
JC/RAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
208 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY THEN MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW
BANDED HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THIS MORNING REMAINING WELL SOUTH
AND EAST OF NANTUCKETS. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR FORECAST AREA MAINLY
DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY.
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDINESS WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM A CYCLONE
PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS REGION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIFT OUT TO SEA TODAY...AS
DRIER NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THE WIND SHIFT WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL REMAIN
MOISTURE STARVED DURING ITS PASSAGE. ADDED TERRAIN KICK MAY ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
USED A BLEND OF WARM MAV NUMBERS WITH COOLER MET READINGS. THIS
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN QUITE SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A SHORT
WAVE MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION
TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME CLOUDINESS SKIRTING SOUTHERN AREAS.
IT WILL BE BACK TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION REMAINS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG
MARCH SUN WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S DESPITE H8 TEMPS IN THE -14 TO -16C RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COUPLE OF MINOR CLIPPERS MOVING THRU THE WNWLY FLOW ALFT WILL
PRODUCE SCT SNW SHWRS SUN NIGHT THRU TUE. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FOR WED. THE BIG QUESTION FOR WED NIGHT AND THU WILL BE
IF THE DIGGING NRN TROF THRU THE MIDWEST CAN PHASE WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY BEING KICKED NEWD FROM THE SRN STREAM. AT THIS TIME THE
MODELS ARE NOT PHASING THE SYSTEMS ALLOWING NOTHING MORE THAN A
WEAK NRN STREAM TROF TO MOVE THRU ON THU. THE EURO HAS ALSO BACKED
OFF WITH THE PHASING OF THE SYSTEMS. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
THOUGH SO STAYED WITH THE SUPERBLEND AND MAINLY CHC POPS FOR WED
NIGHT AND THU. TEMPS THRU THE OUTLOOK PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN BLO
NORMAL BUT NOT THE EXTREME COLD OF THE PAST WEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...
VFR CONDS SUN BECOMING MVFR SUN NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT SNW SHWRS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR SEAS AS OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS A
FEW 5 AND 6 FOOTERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA THRU WED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
JC/RAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
753 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAW UP SOME MILDER AIR FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MICHIGAN.
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE IN LOWER
MICHIGAN. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
AMOUNT OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW WITH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...AND THERE IS A
FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO FORM. FSL RUC AND HRRR RUC
ARE SHOWING THESE LOW CLOUDS FORMING. IF THEY DO FORM AND HOLD
THROUGH THE DAY...GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY END UP CORRECT IN SHOWING
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S. HOWEVER LIKE TODAY...THE LOW
CLOUDS DID BREAK UP AND THAT COULD HAPPEN TOMORROW. STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP THIS TO HAPPEN. SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE
MILD LOW 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURES.
LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY IS FAIRLY LOW AS
THE LIFT LOOKS WEAK AND THERE IS SOME DRY AIR BELOW THE MOIST DGZ.
I WILL KEEP THE POPS AT LOW LEVELS. TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THE
LOW TRACKING UP THE OH VALLEY WILL LIKELY SPREAD SNOW INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MI. SOME DECENT MID LEVEL FGEN AND DIVERGENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THERE IS ALSO SOME
WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY SHOWING UP AROUND THE DGZ...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT A STRONGER BAND OF SNOW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS ON
THIS. I WILL MAINTAIN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE I94 CORRIDOR.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW AFTER 00Z WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER SURFACE LOW OVER THE OH
VALLEY FOR WED. WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM...THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS
LIABLE TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THE
STEADIER SNOWS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CLIP AT LEAST THE FAR SE CWA.
SNOW ACCUMS IN CALHOUN AND JACKSON COUNTIES COULD REACH TOWARD SIX
INCHES BY WED EVENING. IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP CUT OFF
TO THE SNOW TO THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96. THIS CONTINUES
TO BE AN EVOLVING SOLUTION AS THE NORTH AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
THAT PRODUCE THIS SYSTEM WAS JUST MAKING IT ONTO THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST TODAY...AND THE SOLUTION IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
THE OTHER IMPRESSIVE ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM IS THE COLD AIR THAT
FOLLOWS IT. H8 TEMPS DIVE TO AROUND -17C...WHICH HAS TRENDED
COLDER. THIS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS ON
WED...INTO THE TEENS BY EVENING. THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT QUICKLY WED
NIGHT AND WITH CLEARING SKIES...MINS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND ZERO.
THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BE RECORD LEVELS. CURRENT RECORDS FOR 03/13
ARE 5F AT GRR...2F AT MKG...AND -3F AT LAN.
THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...BUT
THEN TURNING COOLER AGAIN DURING NEXT WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS APPEAR TO IMPACT SW MI...ALTHOUGH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
IS SHOWN OVER THE TN VALLEY BY SUNDAY WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW
TO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
WHETHER OR NOT LOW CLOUDS FORM TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN
AVIATION CHALLENGE. THE REASON THIS IS SO CHALLENGING IS THAT THE
CLOUDS HAVE NOT FORMED ANYWHERE UPSTREAM YET BUT THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL START FORMING OVERHEAD THIS EVENING.
THE PREVIOUS TAFS HAD THE LOW CLOUDS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MVFR
CIGS AROUND 1500 FT DEVELOPING TONIGHT THEN MIXING OUT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY. HOWEVER HAVE PUSHED THE TIMING OF THE STRATUS DEVELOPING OUT
TO AFTER 06Z WHICH IS WHEN THE WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS SEEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES IS PREDICTED FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL MELTING. TEMPERATURES DO COOL
DOWN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL SLOWLY DOWN OR
STOP ANY MELTING. TEMPERATURES THEN TRY TO MODERATE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE SNOWPACK WILL ONLY SLOWLY RELEASE SOME
OF ITS WATER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH LIMITED RUNOFF WATER LEVELS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STABLE THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
322 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION.
CHANCES OVERALL REMAIN LOW AND NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WITH THIS ISSUANCE. SUNDAY NIGHT ONE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS SOME
MOISTENING OF THE DGZ...AND LIFT FROM THE WAVE HERE IN SW LOWER MI.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...I WILL FEATURE LOW POPS FOR THE
REGION NORTH OF A HART TO MOUNT PLEASANT LINE. FURTHER SOUTH...AT
THIS POINT LITTLE OR NO LIFT AROUND TO SUPPORT ADDING POPS.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR MONDAY NIGHT FOR POSSIBLY ADDING
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST. NAM AND HIGH RES EURO KEEP IT
DRY...BUT THE GFS IS SHOWING THE DGZ BECOMING MOIST. THIS IS
RELATED TO MID LEVEL FGEN WITH IS STRONGER WITH THE GFS. I HELD
OFF ON MENTIONING PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE GFS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING...DEWPOINTS ARE ELEVATED
COMPARED TO FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT WE MAY SEE
SOME FOG/STRATUS TRYING TO DEVELOP VERY LATE. NAM AND HRRR MODELS
ARE SHOWING THIS. I ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
IT STILL APPEARS THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...LEAVING SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE PCPN COULD START TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-96 ALONG A REGION OF FGEN. THEN THE PCPN SHOULD EXPAND AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH. THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD
OCCUR...WITH MAINLY SNOW FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. BEING
THE NORTHERN FRINGE SHOULD GIVE THE AREA MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED FOR I-96...UP TO TWO INCHES OVER THE FAR
SE CWA...TOWARD JXN.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM GOES BY THE REST OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE
QUIET. A CLIPPER SYSTEM GOES BY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...BUT THE
BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH...SO IT MAY GO BY DRY.
AFTER A NEAR NORMAL START TO TEMPS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
40...WE WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVE BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU. TEMPS
SHOULD BE BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER...THEN COOLER
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
MUCH OF THE REGION CONTINUED TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AS OF 17Z
TODAY...WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF VFR. HOWEVER DRIER AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES WERE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. SO EXPECT A GENERAL LIFTING AND CLEARING OF THE
MVFR CEILINGS IN MOST AREAS BY 22Z. THE VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH 18Z SUN.
NORTH WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 10 KTS...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
SUNSET. THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE SUN
MORNING...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LAKE TO 10-15 KTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS SEEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES IS PREDICTED FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL MELTING. TEMPERATURES DO COOL
DOWN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL SLOWLY DOWN OR
STOP ANY MELTING. TEMPERATURES THEN TRY TO MODERATE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE SNOWPACK WILL ONLY SLOWLY RELEASE SOME
OF ITS WATER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH LIMITED RUNOFF WATER LEVELS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STABLE THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1154 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. A QUIET PATTERN
WILL PERSIST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
NOT MUCH PCPN FALLING ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER AN AREA OF HEAVIER
PCPN WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MOVING EAST. THIS PCPN IS
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR ALPENA TO
MADISON. 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. FEEL WE/LL SEE DYNAMICAL COOLING AS THE PCPN MOVES
EAST. GIVEN SFC TEMPS STILL NEAR 40 ACROSS THE CWA...WE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AND HAVE GONE WITH A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH SOME
WEAK WAVE ENERGY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AFTER SUNSET THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
COULD BE RAIN OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY TO CHANGE EVERYTHING TO SNOW. HRRR AND
GFS SEEM TO BE A PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING AND WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR SOME FREEZING PRECIP WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST.
NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS TONIGHT OR AMOUNT
OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. SNOWY SURFACES COULD SEE A QUICK
GLAZE OF ICE...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS TONIGHT.
SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH WHERE IT DOES SNOW BUT
AGAIN...EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS VERY LITTLE IMPACTS FROM THIS
PRECIPITATION.
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE STALLING OUT OF ANY PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
INDIANA BORDER UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST LATE IN THE DAY. ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP SATURDAY THAT WILL BE IN FORM OF SNOW AND
AGAIN...LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IF ANY OCCURS AT ALL. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK REACHING THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MINS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES. TRANQUIL
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO BRING A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PCPN BY LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
LOTS OF GULF MOISTURE TO DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. A CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST PCPN WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH TO SE OF OUR FCST AREA.
12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE IS STILL FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE LOW AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED PCPN SHIELD AND SUGGESTS THE NORTHERMOST PERIPHERY OF
THE PCPN MAY CLIP SOUTHERN MI WITH SOME SNOW WEDNESDAY. IT
SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL STAY SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TO MID ATLANTIC REGIONS.
THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z GLOBAL GEM DO NOT SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL PHASE UNTIL LATE WEEK WITH THE SFC LOW
REALLY NOT STRENGTHENING UNTIL IT REACHES THE EASTERN CONUS AS
THAT OCCURS. 12Z GFS GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS THAT SYSTEM WELL SOUTH
OF OUR REGION.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AT
LEAST FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TRANQUIL WX IS EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
A QUICK BURST OF PRECIPITATION WILL WORK THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT THREE HOURS...OR THROUGH 09Z OR SO. EXPECTING A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...TRENDING TOWARD ALL SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT. LIGHT MVFR FOG/HAZE (3-5SM) WILL ALSO WORK
THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND ACT TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
PROBABLY EVEN MORE SO THAN THE PRECIP.
CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD MVFR AFTER 08Z TO 09Z WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL PAINTING A
PESSIMISTIC MVFR CEILING PICTURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
THINKING WE MAY CLEAR OUT QUICKER AND STILL PLAYING THE TAFS THAT
WAY. FEEL THE MODELS ARE HANGING ON TO A BIT TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL SNOW MELT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE FREEZING HIGH TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING WILL HELP TO SLOWLY ERODE SOME OF THE SNOW PACK AND
ICE COVER IN LOWER MICHIGAN. NO REAL RAINMAKERS OR HEAT WAVES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO LEADING TO PRETTY STABLE RIVER
CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
512 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
THINGS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BREAK UP AS RIDGING WORKS INTO THE AREA... AND THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPSTREAM
CLOUD COVER OVER THE DAKOTAS IS A BIT MORE CONCERNING... SINCE IT
ISN/T BEING PARTICULARLY WELL HANDLED BY THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THE
RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS... BUT IT WANTS TO
BREAK IT UP FAIRLY QUICKLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
FOR NOW... TOOK A COMPROMISE STANCE... ALLOWING THESE CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA... BUT THEN WORKING TOWARD PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN GENERAL BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS WE SEE A
BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER 925-850MB TEMPERATURES PASS ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER... RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN TONIGHT... WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA. READINGS
IN THE FAR WEST WILL LIKELY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY SUNDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
THE LONG TERM CAN STILL BE SUMMED UP INTO ONE WORD...SNOWMELT!
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH ONE
CHANCE FOR A MINOR RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY MORNING.
MAIN QUESTION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS HOW WARM DO WE GET BOTH
DAYS...AND HOW WARM DO LOWS REMAIN MONDAY MORNING. MODEL AGREEMENT
REMAINS HIGH ON THE AREA GETTING INTO A HEALTHY WARM SECTOR OF A
CLIPPER TYPE LOW TRACKING ESE ACROSS SRN CANADA MONDAY. NAM/ECMWF
SIMILAR WITH SHOWING A 925 MB WARM NOSE COMING UP INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAX 925 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 10C AND 17C.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MPX AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE HEART OF THE WARM
NOSE AROUND 6Z MONDAY...WITH COOLER 925 MB TEMPS EXPECTED BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. STILL CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE
ENTIRE AREA GOING INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE OFF
THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WC MN SUNDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
SUNDAY/MONDAY WAS TO INCREASE LOWS MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THE EXPECTED
WARM SECTOR OVERHEAD. FORECAST NOW HAS LOWS OF 32 OR GREATER
BASICALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER...THOUGH EVEN THIS MAY BE TO COOL
GIVEN HOW WARM THE AIR AT 925MB WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR BOTH
DAYS...THE FORECAST HIGHS FAVOR THE MOS GUIDANCE /AS RAW NCEP MODELS
ARE OVER COOLING SFC TEMPS OVER THE SNOW/...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FAVOR THE WARMER RAW MODEL OUTPUT. MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN A SLIGHT COOLING OF TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
LOOK TO OFFER A REPEAT OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY /THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER 925 MB TEMPS/.
RUNNING THE LOCAL SNOW LOSS TOOL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WE GOT
A GOOD 5-8 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH LOSS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK /MORE
WEST LESS EAST/. GIVEN CURRENT SNOW DEPTH ANALYSIS FROM DOWN THE
HALL AT THE NOHRSC...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE THE EDGE
OF THE SNOW PACK UP TO NEAR THE MINNESOTA RIVER IN SW MN...WITH ALL
BUT THE NE CWA LIKELY SEEING THE SNOW DEPTH BACK DOWN UNDER 10
INCHES. WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED...FLOOD CONCERNS ARE NOT HIGH...BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR ICE JAMS NEXT WEEK AS ICED UP
AREA RIVERS BEGIN TO BREAKUP.
AS FOR THE LONE PRECIP CHANCE IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING ACROSS SRN
MN...WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED BETWEEN 6Z AND 18Z
TUESDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES RIGHT NOW COMING WITH HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIP MAKES IT. THE ECMWF/SREF ARE THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH
PRECIP...WHILE THE NAM/GFS/GEM ARE FATHER SOUTH...KEEPING THE BULK
OF QPF ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. FORCING FOR THE PRECIP HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH EITHER...WITH THIS PRECIP REGION SETTING UP WITHIN A COUPLED
JET AREA BETWEEN NRN STREAM ENERGY EXTENDING FROM MN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SRN STREAM ENERGY GOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERMAL
PROFILES STILL SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING
TO A WET SNOW AS CAA SLOWLY COOLS THE WARM NOSE AS THE PRECIP MOVES
IN. MOST MODELS SHOW AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW BEING POSSIBLE WITH
THIS PRECIP BAND TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE 6Z NAM DOES SHOW
THAT WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY LET OUR GUARD DOWN WITH THIS ONE...AS IT
LAYS DOWN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF WITH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER 6
INCHES FROM SW MN INTO NC IA. LIKE THE SYSTEM WE SAW TUESDAY...THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD FGEN BAND TO SETUP TO THE NORTH OF WHAT
WILL BE A DEEPENING LOW GOING FROM KS/NEB INTO NRN MO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
THINGS WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ISSUES WITH VFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE
MINNESOTA/DAKOTAS BORDER WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
NEAR-MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA HAVE BEEN
BREAKING UP WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION... BUT KEAU COULD STILL SEE SOME CEILINGS NEAR 030 FOR
A FEW HOURS. UPSTREAM... THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
SPILLING DOWN THE 700-500MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS IS
TENDING TO ERODE ON ITS EASTERN EDGE... BUT THE RAP SUGGESTS SOME
OF IT WILL AT LEAST IMPACT THE WESTERN SITES THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER... THESE CEILINGS ARE MAINLY IN THE 050-100 RANGE... SO
ANY BKN CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AS
THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA... BUT WILL PICK UP LATER TONIGHT
AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
KMSP...MAIN ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TAF IS WHETHER WE/LL SEE
ANY OF THE UPSTREAM VFR CEILINGS MAKE IT INTO THE AREA TODAY. FOR
NOW... KEPT THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST... BUT IT/S CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE SOME CEILINGS AROUND 070 COULD SNEAK IN FOR A TIME LATER
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES EXPECTED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
MONDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
305 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO THE SUPERIOR
AND HEBRON AREAS. THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL CHANCES ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER TODAY. ALSO...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL BANDS...SO THIS WILL BE
NOTED IN THE HWO.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SLID THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING...A BREEZY NORTH WIND HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO A LOW THAT STALLED OUT OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
PANHANDLES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING A TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS WERE
HITTING IN AND OUT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LEANED ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND DID NOT ISSUE A CHEAP LAST MINUTE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT TODAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE CALMING DOWN.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIED TO ELEVATED OMEGA AND
FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB TROUGH
CURRENTLY SLIDING OVER THE REGION. THE SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD BE ORIENTED IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND.
THE BAND WILL SLIDE OVER THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT TODAY WITH ITS
SOLUTION...SO LEANED THE FORECAST AND POPS TOWARDS THIS OUTCOME.
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNRISE. LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL IS FORECAST...BUT AREAS WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS ONGOING
WILL EXPERIENCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 TO 3 MILES FOR A
BRIEF TIME PERIOD. THE SREF HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS EVENT WELL FOR
VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAS PLACED THE WORST
VISIBILITIES ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN
00Z AND 04Z.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
OVERVIEW...OUTSTANDING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL
KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING WITH LOTS OF SUN ALLOWING FOR A GOOD WARM UP...WHICH SHOULD
EASILY MAKE SUNDAY THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON
SUNDAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
PLAINS. THE SFC WIND WILL LIGHTEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
MAKING FOR AN EVEN NICER DAY...LIKELY THE NICEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
JUST A LIGHT BREEZE.
TUESDAY...THE MORNING MAY START OUT MILD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY SINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MAY END UP BEING GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
PASSES THROUGH. WILL CALL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID
50S SOUTH...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES GIVEN
FRONTAL TIMING ISSUES AS WE ARE STILL 4 DAYS OUT. THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT DO APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER SFC LAYER
MAY SEE RAIN INITIALLY AND THEN SNOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TIMING.
WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...BUT NO SEVERE COLD
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. RATHER THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD WITH HIGHS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND NORMAL. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN APPEARS WARM AND DRY. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY UNDERCUT AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...BUT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE OVERWHELMINGLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST. WIND SPEED WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
SOUTHWEST ZONES COULD MIX TO AROUND 825 MB...WHICH WOULD PULL THE
DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE SFC ALONG WITH SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS. USED
A MIXED DOWN TOOL TO COME UP WITH DEWPOINTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS MORE REALISTIC THAN THE ALLBLEND DEWPOINTS.
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1159 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL CHANCES ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER TODAY. ALSO...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL BANDS...SO THIS WILL BE
NOTED IN THE HWO.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SLID THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING...A BREEZY NORTH WIND HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO A LOW THAT STALLED OUT OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
PANHANDLES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING A TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS WERE
HITTING IN AND OUT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LEANED ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND DID NOT ISSUE A CHEAP LAST MINUTE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT TODAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE CALMING DOWN.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIED TO ELEVATED OMEGA AND
FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB TROUGH
CURRENTLY SLIDING OVER THE REGION. THE SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD BE ORIENTED IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND.
THE BAND WILL SLIDE OVER THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT TODAY WITH ITS
SOLUTION...SO LEANED THE FORECAST AND POPS TOWARDS THIS OUTCOME.
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNRISE. LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL IS FORECAST...BUT AREAS WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS ONGOING
WILL EXPERIENCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 TO 3 MILES FOR A
BRIEF TIME PERIOD. THE SREF HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS EVENT WELL FOR
VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAS PLACED THE WORST
VISIBILITIES ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN
00Z AND 04Z.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
OVERVIEW...OUTSTANDING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL
KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING WITH LOTS OF SUN ALLOWING FOR A GOOD WARM UP...WHICH SHOULD
EASILY MAKE SUNDAY THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON
SUNDAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
PLAINS. THE SFC WIND WILL LIGHTEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
MAKING FOR AN EVEN NICER DAY...LIKELY THE NICEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
JUST A LIGHT BREEZE.
TUESDAY...THE MORNING MAY START OUT MILD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY SINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MAY END UP BEING GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
PASSES THROUGH. WILL CALL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID
50S SOUTH...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES GIVEN
FRONTAL TIMING ISSUES AS WE ARE STILL 4 DAYS OUT. THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT DO APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER SFC LAYER
MAY SEE RAIN INITIALLY AND THEN SNOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TIMING.
WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...BUT NO SEVERE COLD
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. RATHER THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD WITH HIGHS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND NORMAL. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN APPEARS WARM AND DRY. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY UNDERCUT AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...BUT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE OVERWHELMINGLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST. WIND SPEED WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
SOUTHWEST ZONES COULD MIX TO AROUND 825 MB...WHICH WOULD PULL THE
DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE SFC ALONG WITH SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS. USED
A MIXED DOWN TOOL TO COME UP WITH DEWPOINTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS MORE REALISTIC THAN THE ALLBLEND DEWPOINTS.
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
WITH IT A CHANCE FOR A PASSING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER TO CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DEVELOPING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN A MODERATION TREND THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS SPIKING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SITES ACROSS WESTERN
NY ALREADY REPORTING VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S. HAVE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. ALSO REDUCED POPS TO MAINLY SLGT CHC ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AS LATEST HRRR SHOWS BEST ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO NORTHWESTERN PA. JUST NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF FORCING TO GET THINGS GOING WITH THIS BOUNDARY. SLGT CHC TO
LOW END CHC SHOULD COVER THINGS APPROPRIATELY AS FEATURE PASSES.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT NOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO PENINSULA PER
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS RESIDING
IN THE LOWER 30S JUST WEST OF BUFFALO...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FCST REGION. BIGGEST FCST PROBLEM TODAY IS
DETERMINING WHETHER THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP
WITH ITS PASSAGE...AS ALL FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER VERY
MEAGER QPF AMOUNTS AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN ONLY LOW CHC POPS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND THIS EVEN MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH.
P-TYPE FCST IS A LITTLE TRICKY AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH BETTER HEATING EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
FINGER LAKES AND POINTS SOUTH. AS A RESULT...P-TYPE INITIALLY
SHOULD BE A RA/SN MIX ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE
OVER TO RA SHWRS WITH FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WHERE WARMER
TEMPS SHOULD RESIDE. REGARDLESS...WE/RE LOOKING AT A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST DUE TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE OVERALL
WEAKNESS OF THE BOUNDARY. COOLEST TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH WHERE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH...ENOUGH
WARMING SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LWR WYOMING VLY.
RAIN/SN SHWRS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO RETRACT BACK
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES BY MID-EVENING AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION LEADS TO DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. INSPECTION OF
SEVERAL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED
BASED ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND SHEAR WITHIN THE INVERSION LAYER.
THAT SAID...NAM-12 MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ORGANIZED
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS. FOR
NOW...HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN CHC MENTION THROUGH 9Z...AFTER
WHICH ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING IF ACTIVITY ACTUALLY GETS
GOING. AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES...EXPECT DRY BUT
COOLER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE LWR MISS RVR VLY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE.
UNFORTUNATELY WITH THIS OCCURRING LATE...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE TRICKY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN
ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA
SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DRIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
FCST MODELS SUGGEST A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING THROUGH OUR
AREA WITH STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.
AS THIS OCCURS...THE GFS SHOWS DEVELOPING SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LLJ
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE BULK OF
QPF NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE WHICH AGREES WELL
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BECOMING FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST AREA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCT SN SHWRS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S...WITH BEST POP POTENTIAL REMAINING NORTH OF THE
STATE LINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE
STORM FOR MID WEEK CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DUE TO A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH SEVERAL
WAVES INVOLVED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS/CANADIAN
KEEP THE NRN AND PACIFIC STREAMS SEPARATE RESULTING IN A LESS
INTENSE LOW WHICH TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT HERE.
THE ECMWF PHASES THE TWO STREAMS BINGING THE SFC LOW INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THEN INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CALL IT ALL
SNOW FOR NOW BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MIXED PRECIP IN THE
WYOMING VALLEY.
PREVIOUS DISC...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH IS HEAVILY BASED ON WPC
GUIDANCE. MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM
PASSING ACRS THE MID ATLC RGN. QUESTIONS REMAIN CONCERNING POTNL
PHASING AND SPEED OF THIS STORM. WE DID RAISE POPS TO LIKELY THIS
TIME FRAME (WED/WED NGT). OTRW SOME LGT PCPN FROM PASSING NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS (ENHANCED AT TIMES FROM LAKE INFLUENCES) PRIOR TO
THIS STORM. TEMPS XPCTD TO RISE INTO THE U30S OR LOWER 40S ON
TUE...FALLING TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS
LATER THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY OVER THE REGION FOLLOWED BY LOW VFR
CIGS BY MID MORNING THEN MVFR/LOW MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS UNDER NW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. KRME/KAVP MAY
BE PRIMARILY LOW VFR.
VARIABLE WIND BECOMING WESTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AT 8-12 KNOTS DECEASING TO 5 KNOTS
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON/TUE...MVFR CIGS MAINLY CNTRL NY WITH SCT -SHSN.
WED...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
634 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
WITH IT A CHANCE FOR A PASSING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER TO CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DEVELOPING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN A MODERATION TREND THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS SPIKING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SITES ACROSS WESTERN
NY ALREADY REPORTING VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S. HAVE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. ALSO REDUCED POPS TO MAINLY SLGT CHC ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AS LATEST HRRR SHOWS BEST ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO NORTHWESTERN PA. JUST NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF FORCING TO GET THINGS GOING WITH THIS BOUNDARY. SLGT CHC TO
LOW END CHC SHOULD COVER THINGS APPROPRIATELY AS FEATURE PASSES.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT NOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO PENINSULA PER
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS RESIDING
IN THE LOWER 30S JUST WEST OF BUFFALO...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FCST REGION. BIGGEST FCST PROBLEM TODAY IS
DETERMINING WHETHER THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP
WITH ITS PASSAGE...AS ALL FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER VERY
MEAGER QPF AMOUNTS AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN ONLY LOW CHC POPS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND THIS EVEN MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH.
P-TYPE FCST IS A LITTLE TRICKY AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH BETTER HEATING EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
FINGER LAKES AND POINTS SOUTH. AS A RESULT...P-TYPE INITIALLY
SHOULD BE A RA/SN MIX ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE
OVER TO RA SHWRS WITH FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WHERE WARMER
TEMPS SHOULD RESIDE. REGARDLESS...WE/RE LOOKING AT A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST DUE TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE OVERALL
WEAKNESS OF THE BOUNDARY. COOLEST TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH WHERE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH...ENOUGH
WARMING SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LWR WYOMING VLY.
RAIN/SN SHWRS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO RETRACT BACK
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES BY MID-EVENING AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION LEADS TO DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. INSPECTION OF
SEVERAL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED
BASED ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND SHEAR WITHIN THE INVERSION LAYER.
THAT SAID...NAM-12 MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ORGANIZED
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS. FOR
NOW...HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN CHC MENTION THROUGH 9Z...AFTER
WHICH ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING IF ACTIVITY ACTUALLY GETS
GOING. AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES...EXPECT DRY BUT
COOLER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE LWR MISS RVR VLY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE.
UNFORTUNATELY WITH THIS OCCURRING LATE...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE TRICKY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN
ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA
SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DRIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
FCST MODELS SUGGEST A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING THROUGH OUR
AREA WITH STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.
AS THIS OCCURS...THE GFS SHOWS DEVELOPING SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LLJ
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE BULK OF
QPF NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE WHICH AGREES WELL
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BECOMING FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST AREA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCT SN SHWRS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S...WITH BEST POP POTENTIAL REMAINING NORTH OF THE
STATE LINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE
STORM FOR MID WEEK CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DUE TO A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH SEVERAL
WAVES INVOLVED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS/CANADIAN
KEEP THE NRN AND PACIFIC STREAMS SEPARATE RESULTING IN A LESS
INTENSE LOW WHICH TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT HERE.
THE ECMWF PHASES THE TWO STREAMS BINGING THE SFC LOW INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THEN INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CALL IT ALL
SNOW FOR NOW BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MIXED PRECIP IN THE
WYOMING VALLEY.
PREVIOUS DISC...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH IS HEAVILY BASED ON WPC
GUIDANCE. MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM
PASSING ACRS THE MID ATLC RGN. QUESTIONS REMAIN CONCERNING POTNL
PHASING AND SPEED OF THIS STORM. WE DID RAISE POPS TO LIKELY THIS
TIME FRAME (WED/WED NGT). OTRW SOME LGT PCPN FROM PASSING NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS (ENHANCED AT TIMES FROM LAKE INFLUENCES) PRIOR TO
THIS STORM. TEMPS XPCTD TO RISE INTO THE U30S OR LOWER 40S ON
TUE...FALLING TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS
LATER THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK FOLLOWED BY LOW
VFR CIGS BY MID MORNING THEN MVFR/LOW MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THROUGH 06Z MVFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
PERSIST UNDER NW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
VARIABLE WIND BECOMING WESTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AT 8-12 KNOTS DECEASING TO 5 KNOTS
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON/TUE...MVFR CIGS MAINLY CNTRL NY WITH SCT -SHSN.
WED...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1224 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
CLOUDS ARE STILL CREEPING SLOWLY TO THE EAST BUT SOME HOLES ARE
ALSO SHOWING UP. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF SOME CLOUDS MAKING IT TO
THE EAST BUT STILL THINK THEY WILL THIN OUT OR DISSIPATE IN SOME
AREAS. TEMPS ARE RISING NICELY AND WILL HAVE TO INCREASE HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING...AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE CENTER WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO IA LATER TODAY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH LATEST LOOPS SHOW SOME BREAKING UP AS
THE LEADING EDGE MOVES UNDER THE SFC HIGH. RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE CLOUDS SO WILL
FOLLOW THAT AND KEEP CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE WEST FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOUTH WINDS AND
WARMER AIR MOVING IN WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S TODAY.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TO PICK UP OVER THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BUT THINK
WITH MIXING THAT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL MUCH...MAINLY INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
WITH 850MB TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA GETTING CLOSE TO 10 C. WITH
SOME SUN AND NOT MUCH SNOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...TEMPS
COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING IN
OUR NORTHEAST FOR THIS SHORTWAVE ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN FURTHER NORTH. MONDAY SHOULD BE WARM FOR MOST OF THE DAY
ALTHOUGH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION TRIES TO SLIP IN FROM THE NORTH.
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL
KEEP HIGHS MONDAY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR NOW. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP
IN THE 20S FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITHIN THIS
NORTHERN STREAM BRANCH...THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
NORTH...KEEPING THE AREA PRIMARILY DRY. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A PERIOD
OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE
STILL. WITH THE SFC HIGH PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST...THE COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD BE BRIEF...WITH LOW-LEVEL WARMING BEGINNING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...TEMPS COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE TOO COOL ON
WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE ANOTHER SFC LOW PASSING
TO THE NORTH WITH FAVORABLE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE TIMING IS MORE UNCERTAIN AT
THIS RANGE...CURRENT MODELS WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY WARMER THAN
INDICATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF PRECIP MAY
BRUSH NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOMEWHAT FOR
FRIDAY BUT REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
AREA OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION WILL BE
PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS
TRENDING TO GRADUALLY THIN CLOUD COVER HOWEVER NOT SEEING
INDICATIONS AS OF YET. NORTHEAST FA TO INCLUDE BJI MAY MISS THESE
CLOUDS WITH THE SOUTHERN FA LIKELY TO BE IN THE CLOUDS LONGEST. WE
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
933 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
WILL UPDATE TO MAKE SOME MINOR CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS. STILL SEEING THE
MOST CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST WITH SUN IN THE EAST. THE MARCH SUN IS
MAKING ITS PRESENCE FELT TOO AS MORNING LOWS IN THE NORTHEAST WERE
IN THE TEENS BELOW AND THEY ARE ALREADY ABOVE ZERO IN PLACES THERE.
WILL WATCH HOW TEMPS PROGRESS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE
MAKING ANY HIGH TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING...AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE CENTER WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO IA LATER TODAY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH LATEST LOOPS SHOW SOME BREAKING UP AS
THE LEADING EDGE MOVES UNDER THE SFC HIGH. RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE CLOUDS SO WILL
FOLLOW THAT AND KEEP CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE WEST FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOUTH WINDS AND
WARMER AIR MOVING IN WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S TODAY.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TO PICK UP OVER THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BUT THINK
WITH MIXING THAT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL MUCH...MAINLY INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
WITH 850MB TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA GETTING CLOSE TO 10 C. WITH
SOME SUN AND NOT MUCH SNOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...TEMPS
COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING IN
OUR NORTHEAST FOR THIS SHORTWAVE ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN FURTHER NORTH. MONDAY SHOULD BE WARM FOR MOST OF THE DAY
ALTHOUGH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION TRIES TO SLIP IN FROM THE NORTH.
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL
KEEP HIGHS MONDAY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR NOW. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP
IN THE 20S FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITHIN THIS
NORTHERN STREAM BRANCH...THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
NORTH...KEEPING THE AREA PRIMARILY DRY. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A PERIOD
OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE
STILL. WITH THE SFC HIGH PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST...THE COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD BE BRIEF...WITH LOW-LEVEL WARMING BEGINNING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...TEMPS COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE TOO COOL ON
WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE ANOTHER SFC LOW PASSING
TO THE NORTH WITH FAVORABLE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE TIMING IS MORE UNCERTAIN AT
THIS RANGE...CURRENT MODELS WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY WARMER THAN
INDICATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF PRECIP MAY
BRUSH NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOMEWHAT FOR
FRIDAY BUT REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
VFR CIGS OF AROUND 6000-8000 FT CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN TAF SITES BUT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE EASTERN SITES FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL PICK
UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 13 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
633 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND THEREFORE TEMPS AS THE CLOUD DECK ONLY VERY
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THINK THAT THE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN
CWA WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE NEGATIVE TEENS WHILE THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE IN THE TEENS ABOVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING...AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE CENTER WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO IA LATER TODAY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH LATEST LOOPS SHOW SOME BREAKING UP AS
THE LEADING EDGE MOVES UNDER THE SFC HIGH. RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE CLOUDS SO WILL
FOLLOW THAT AND KEEP CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE WEST FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOUTH WINDS AND
WARMER AIR MOVING IN WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S TODAY.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TO PICK UP OVER THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BUT THINK
WITH MIXING THAT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL MUCH...MAINLY INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
WITH 850MB TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA GETTING CLOSE TO 10 C. WITH
SOME SUN AND NOT MUCH SNOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...TEMPS
COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING IN
OUR NORTHEAST FOR THIS SHORTWAVE ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN FURTHER NORTH. MONDAY SHOULD BE WARM FOR MOST OF THE DAY
ALTHOUGH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION TRIES TO SLIP IN FROM THE NORTH.
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL
KEEP HIGHS MONDAY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR NOW. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP
IN THE 20S FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITHIN THIS
NORTHERN STREAM BRANCH...THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
NORTH...KEEPING THE AREA PRIMARILY DRY. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A PERIOD
OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE
STILL. WITH THE SFC HIGH PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST...THE COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD BE BRIEF...WITH LOW-LEVEL WARMING BEGINNING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...TEMPS COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE TOO COOL ON
WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE ANOTHER SFC LOW PASSING
TO THE NORTH WITH FAVORABLE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE TIMING IS MORE UNCERTAIN AT
THIS RANGE...CURRENT MODELS WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY WARMER THAN
INDICATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF PRECIP MAY
BRUSH NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOMEWHAT FOR
FRIDAY BUT REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
VFR CIGS OF AROUND 6000-8000 FT CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN TAF SITES BUT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE EASTERN SITES FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL PICK
UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 13 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
255 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING...AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE CENTER WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO IA LATER TODAY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH LATEST LOOPS SHOW SOME BREAKING UP AS
THE LEADING EDGE MOVES UNDER THE SFC HIGH. RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE CLOUDS SO WILL
FOLLOW THAT AND KEEP CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE WEST FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOUTH WINDS AND
WARMER AIR MOVING IN WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S TODAY.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TO PICK UP OVER THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BUT THINK
WITH MIXING THAT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL MUCH...MAINLY INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
WITH 850MB TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA GETTING CLOSE TO 10 C. WITH
SOME SUN AND NOT MUCH SNOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...TEMPS
COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING IN
OUR NORTHEAST FOR THIS SHORTWAVE ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN FURTHER NORTH. MONDAY SHOULD BE WARM FOR MOST OF THE DAY
ALTHOUGH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION TRIES TO SLIP IN FROM THE NORTH.
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL
KEEP HIGHS MONDAY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR NOW. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP
IN THE 20S FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITHIN THIS
NORTHERN STREAM BRANCH...THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
NORTH...KEEPING THE AREA PRIMARILY DRY. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A PERIOD
OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE
STILL. WITH THE SFC HIGH PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST...THE COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD BE BRIEF...WITH LOW-LEVEL WARMING BEGINNING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...TEMPS COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE TOO COOL ON
WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE ANOTHER SFC LOW PASSING
TO THE NORTH WITH FAVORABLE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE TIMING IS MORE UNCERTAIN AT
THIS RANGE...CURRENT MODELS WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY WARMER THAN
INDICATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF PRECIP MAY
BRUSH NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOMEWHAT FOR
FRIDAY BUT REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
UPDATED TO GO CLOUDIER AT DVL-GFK-FAR TAF SITES AS MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER SPREADS INTO THE AREA THE REST OF THE NIGHT EXITING SATURDAY
MORNING. CIRRUS WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE AREA SAT MIDDAY-AFTN.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTH ESP
IN RRV/ERN ND 10-15 KTS SAT AFTN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1140 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
AREA OF MID CLOUDS SEEMS TO BE HANDLED BY RAP MODEL PRETTY WELL.
BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT CLOUDS WHICH RUN FROM SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA INTO DVL BASIN TO JAMESTOWN AND EXTEND WESTWARD WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THUS UPDATED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS INTO ERN ND/RRV AND THUS
PROBABLY NOT AS COLD TONIGHT SO RAISED LOWS SOME. RAP HAS THIS
BATCH OF CLOUDS CLEARING A BIT AFTER DAWN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
CIRRUS THICKENING UP SATURDAY MIDDAY-AFTN AS WINDS TURN SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES...WITH
THE MAIN CHALLENGES TEMPS AS WE BEGIN TO WARM UP. WILL UTILIZE A
MODEL BLEND AND LEAN ON THE SLIGHTLY WARMER ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE
ONCE WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS ON SUNDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...ONE MORE COLD NIGHT TO GET THROUGH AS A SFC HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. MOST AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...AND
EXPECT THE NORTHERN VALLEY WHERE SOME FRESH SNOW FELL LAST NIGHT
TO FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 BELOW...PERHAPS LOCALLY COLDER.
ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
COULD ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL WARM TODAYS
READINGS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND DRY.
FOR SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WON/T FALL MUCH WITH WAA AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPS COULD ACTUALLY SLOWLY RISE LATE IN THE
NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +5C BY 12Z SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MOST AREAS APPROACHING 40 AT LEAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPS COULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY WITH SOME MID LEVEL COOLING...BUT GIVEN
WESTERLY SFC TRAJECTORY IT WON/T BE MUCH COOLER. THERE WILL BE A
LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE FAR NE CLOSER TO THE
SFC BOUNDARY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AS IT WILL BE
DRY FOR MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS AND MILD.
FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PHASED WAVE TO COME ABOARD OF PAC
NW AS EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS ROLLING WITH GUIDANCE AGREEING IN
SPLITTING FLOW AS IT TRAVERSES ROCKIES. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MORE NW FLOW...BUT WITH SEASONABLY COOL AIR
TO START AROUND MID WEEK. THESE MODELS GO OUT OF PHASE LATER IN
THE WEEK HOWEVER WITH GFS DIGGING SOMETHING SOUTH OF HERE AND
ECMWF WITH A MORE ZONAL SCENARIO. A BLEND OF THESE OFFERS SLIGHT
POPS FOR PART OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND MILDER TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS
HOLDING CLOSE EITHER SIDE OF THE ZERO MARK WILL PORTEND ANOTHER
MIXED BAG TYPE OF EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
UPDATED TO GO CLOUDIER AT DVL-GFK-FAR TAF SITES AS MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER SPREADS INTO THE AREA THE REST OF THE NIGHT EXITING SATURDAY
MORNING. CIRRUS WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE AREA SAT MIDDAY-AFTN.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTH ESP
IN RRV/ERN ND 10-15 KTS SAT AFTN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...WJB/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
320 AM PST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACT THE REGION LATER TODAY.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH SO MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL
LIKELY SEE RAIN. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COOLER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE
RAIN AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE MAY THEN BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRIER WEATHER AFTER MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM
ARE WINDS AND RAIN.
THINGS ARE FAIRLY QUIET RIGHT NOW...THOUGH SOMEWHAT CHILLY AFTER A
BEAUTIFUL SPRING-LIKE DAY FRIDAY .TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED INTO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PASSING CLOUDS...SOME 5
DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF FOG
ABOUT...MAINLY IN OUR PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND OUTLYING AREAS LIKE
HILLSBORO. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
AN OCCLUDING SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SEND A FRONT TOWARDS
THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER JET WILL BE RIDING
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND SEVERAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
FRONTAL WAVE FORMING/RIDING ON THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS GOOD FEED OF
MOISTURE INTO THIS SYSTEM...SO EXPECT ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING...THOUGH
NOT AS LONG LASTING AS OUR LAST EVENT.
A VERY CLEAR COASTAL JET SIGNATURE APPARENT IN EARLY MORNING MODEL
RUNS. SOUNDINGS AT KONP AND KAST SHOW STOUT STABLE LAYER AT LEVELS
NEAR THE COAST RANGE ELEVATIONS THAT WILL SUPPORT TRAPPING OF THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH
THE TERRAIN. WE WILL UPGRADE THE OREGON COAST FROM A HIGH WIND WATCH
TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. THE GRADIENT IS NOT AS STRONG FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST...AND WITH A FRONTAL WAVE POTENTIALLY PINCHING THE
GRADIENT SOME...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER HERE. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A THREAT
WITH THE COASTAL JET POTENTIAL TO KEEP THE WATCH...AND WILL SEE IF
THE 12Z NAM LOOKS MORE LIKE THE RAP MODEL. IT MAY JUST A BE HEADLAND
EVENT FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON. 850 WINDS SUPPORT HIGH ELEVATION WINDS
FOR THE COAST RANGE...SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO THE WARNING
THERE...THOUGH EXPECT WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG IN MOST OF
THE COAST RANGE COMMUNITIES. HAVE ALSO LEFT THE WILLAPA HILLS IN A
WATCH FOR THE REASONS MENTIONED FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
BLENDED TPW STILL SHOWS ABOUT 1.4" TPW ON THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH MODELED TPW FORECAST
AROUND 1.2" AT THE COAST AND ABOUT 1" INLAND. HAVE BUMPED UP QPF SOME
WITH THIS ISSUANCE AS MODELED 850 WINDS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE A
BIT HIGHER. PEAK PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.NAM SHOWS A
CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING IN THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE FEED WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES THIS EVENING. ESTIMATED RAIN TOTALS SAT NIGHT AND SUN
- 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR THE COAST AND COAST RANGE AS WELL AS THE
CASCADES. THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES PROBABLY SEE CLOSER TO 2.5
INCHES OR ISOLATED SPOTS WITH A BIT MORE. EXPECT GENERALLY 0.5 - 1
INCH FOR THE VALLEYS TOO. CONTEMPLATED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NW
CORNER OF THE AREA FOR THE GRAYS/NEHALEM BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE
IMPACTS OF THE NEW QPF HERE LATER THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF RIVERS
COULD GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE AGAIN...AS SEVERAL MAY REACH BANKFULL
LEVELS. THE GRAYS RIVER AND THE LOWER NEHALEM RIVER WOULD BE THE TWO
OF MOST CONCERN...AND POSSIBLY THE CLACKAMAS RIVER. SNOW LEVELS STAY
HIGH ENOUGH FOR NO ISSUES WITH SNOW IN THE CASCADES. FREEZING LEVELS
GET TO ABOUT 5000 FEET LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH THAT THE WINDS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG IN
THE VALLEYS FOR THIS EVENT ESPECIALLY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY BREEZY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT MAY BE ON THE THRESHOLD FOR WIND RELATED IMPACTS. MODELED
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A STRONG WIND FIELD BUT THE GRADIENT IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE WHEN THE FRONT MOVES INLAND...AND WITH A LOWER LEVEL
INVERSION NOT PROMOTING DEEPER MIXING. STILL COULD TAP INTO THE 35-40
KT WIND FIELD IN THE 6Z-9Z PERIOD...LATE THIS EVENING AND AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AS THE STRONGER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. WILL LET THE DAY
SHIFT SEE IF THE WIND FIELDS GET CLOSER TO THE THRESHOLD FOR WIND
RELATED IMPACTS WITH A LITTLE HIGHER CONFIDENCE. THE LAND AND
MUDSLIDE THREAT DOES REMAIN HIGH AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MOIST SW FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE AND WITH A FAST UPPER JET THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL
LOWS MOVING THROUGH FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHTER RAIN CHANCES...BEST
CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH. IT IS NOT UNTIL THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THAT THE FRONTAL ZONE FINALLY
GETS SHOVED EAST. THE TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING SHOWERS AND SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AT OR BELOW ELEVATIONS
ON MONDAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7.5 DEG/KM FOR A TIME ON
MONDAY.. FREEZING LEVELS BEING QUITE LOW MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WILL MEAN THE SHOWERS MAY HAVE SOME
SMALL HAIL...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT INCREASE SOME IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE
CASCADES. /KMD
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER A LINGERING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AND SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE RECENT BATCH OF MOISTURE AND CLEARING...MAY SEE SOME
PATCHY MORNING/EVENING VALLEY FOG DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SINCE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN AS WELL. MOST RECENT MODEL
RUNS HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE 07/12Z GFS STILL DIGS THE TROUGH AXIS FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...BUT HAS NOW LIFTED THE THREAT MORE INTO
CANADA SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY SHOWS. ONCE WE GET
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE SEVERAL MODEL DISCREPANCIES. WENT
MORE TOWARDS CLIMO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED SINCE THE GFS
HAS A RIDGE BUILDING OVER US...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A FRONT MOVING
ONSHORE. /27
&&
.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS OF IFR OR
LOWER FOG AND STRATUS HAVE FORMED AND WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR AFTER 16Z. COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO MVFR OR WORSE
SAT AFTERNOON AS RAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 00Z SUN...THEN DETERIORATE TO
MVFR BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING EASTERLY GRADIENT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH MIXING TO PROVIDE FOG OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT THE
TERMINAL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SPOTS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY SEE
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THEN INCREASING RAIN WILL BRING
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS TODAY. HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH
INCREASE IN WINDS SO FAR THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THAT WE WILL
SEE GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY 12Z.
WINDS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE INNER WATERS BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A WIDE AREA OF GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT APPEAR LIKELY. CONDITIONS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE NEAR SHORE WATERS COULD SEE LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 45
TO 50 KT AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. HIGH
PRES SETTLES OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND HOLDS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SEAS RUNNING AT 6 TO 8 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LOOK FOR
A QUICK JUMP IN COMBINED SEAS SAT AS THE WIND STRENGTHENS. THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...SO MAX WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE 16 TO 19 FT RANGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
SUBSIDE SUN AFTERNOON WITH A MUCH LOWER WIND WAVE COMPONENT. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR
NORTH OREGON COAST.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
CENTRAL OREGON COAST.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-COAST RANGE OF
NORTHWEST OREGON.
WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
WILLAPA HILLS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 8 AM PST
THIS MORNING TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
922 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...NEWEST 00Z NAM12 AND HRRR COMING IN DRIER OVERNIGHT...
WITH BULK OF PRECIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...
BEGINNING TO SEE AXIS OF WAA INCREASING FROM BROOKS NORTHWEST INTO
WEBB COUNTY AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY RAIN DEVELOPING.
IN ADDITION...ELEVATED SHOWERS SEEN SOUTHWEST OF WEBB COUNTY
ACROSS TAMPAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON MEXICO MOVING NORTHEAST. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS...WITH MAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND WEST
OF I-37 AND LOW TO NO CHANCES NORTHEAST OF I-37. MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDER.
DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND HOLDING IN THE LOWS 50S...AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA HOLDING IN THE UPPER 40S TO EVEN RISING TO AROUND
50.
AFTER A POSSIBLE LULL IN PRECIP MONDAY MORNING...STILL ON TRACK
FOR MAIN FORCING WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO SPREAD INTO
WESTERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP CHANCES DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...THEN
MOVING EAST INTO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...VICTORIA
CROSSROADS...AND COASTAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS NEXT 24 HRS ALONG WITH
PRECIP AT TIMES. CIGS ARE PROG TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LOW END MVFR
AND IFR THIS EVENING /MAY PREVAIL AT MVFR LONGER AT KCRP AND KVCT/.
SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT PRIMARILY KLRD/KALI/KCOT
WITH PERHAPS BETTER AREAL COVERAGE BETWEEN APPROX 6Z TO 10Z...ALSO
EXPANDING CLOSER TO KCRP B/W 6Z TO 10Z AS WELL. VSBYS/CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO IFR DRNG PRECIP /IF NOT AT IFR ALREADY/ WITH BRIEF LIFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IF PRECIP IS HEAVY ENOUGH. KVCT IS CURRENTLY XPCTD
TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT...FOR THE MOST PART. A MORE PRONOUNCED LULL
IN PRECIP MAY EXIST AT ALL TERMINALS FROM LATE NIGHT THRU THE MRNG
HRS MONDAY...BUT PERSISTENT MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL PREVAIL. AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHRA AND PERHAPS TSRA XPCTD TO DVLP VCNTY
KLRD/KCOT MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN MONDAY AND THEN SPREAD EWRD DRNG THE
AFTN. HAVE MENTION OF PRECIP AGAIN FOR ALL TERMINALS MON AFTN.
GENERALLY LIGHT NNWRLY WINDS XPCTD THRU THE TAF PERIOD...SHIFTNG
SLIGHTLY MORE NERLY ON MONDAY. AMENDMENTS TO TAFS MAY BE REQUIRED
THRU THE TAF PERIOD BASED OFF FUTURE RADAR RETURNS AND PRECIP
DVLPMNT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 51 60 52 76 55 / 50 70 60 10 10
VICTORIA 51 63 52 77 52 / 30 60 60 10 10
LAREDO 47 60 51 86 55 / 60 60 30 10 10
ALICE 49 60 50 80 53 / 50 70 50 10 10
ROCKPORT 51 62 54 73 55 / 40 70 70 10 10
COTULLA 47 58 48 83 52 / 50 60 30 10 10
KINGSVILLE 50 60 51 78 55 / 70 70 50 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 52 61 54 74 56 / 50 70 60 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
808 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...12Z RAOB DATA AND OBS TRENDS SHOW DECENT LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT WE WILL KEEP CLOUD
COVER MOST OF THE DAY AS FORECAST. VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE/PRECIP
SHOULD END SHORTLY HOWEVER AS MECHANICAL MIXING BEGINS IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES WARM. COLD FRONT LOOKS A LITTLE
AHEAD OF SCHEDULE VS 06Z NAM AND LATEST RAP RUNS BUT MOST OF THE
MOMENTUM OF THIS UPPER TROUGH IS TO ITS EAST SO A BIT OF A
HESITATION IN FRONTAL MOVEMENT SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE PROGRESS
WITH WHICH UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE PLAINS SLOWS.
NEVERTHELESS WILL PROBABLY UPDATE THE GRIDS SHORTLY TO BRING THE
FRONT THROUGH MORE IN THE MIDNIGHT TO 3AM RANGE THAN THE 3AM TO
6AM RANGE. POPS MAY BE MASSAGED A BIT BUT ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE. SURFACE BASED THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT WITH ELEVATED
THUNDER/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND RAIN BEHIND. NEAR TERM TRENDS/TEMPS
LOOK GOOD. /68-JGG/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO REMAIN INTACT BETWEEN 3000-5000
FEET TODAY. MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. CIGS TO
LOWER AND CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING PREDOMINATE BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUTHEAST
STRONGEST ALONG THE 77/69E CORRIDOR WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONT
BETWEEN 06-12Z WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...COLD FRONT HAS TEMPORARILY
STALLED OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER COLORADO
BEGINS TO TAKE A LEFT TURN AND DIVE INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AS A
JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE FRONT WILL RESUME ITS SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT.
TODAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
00Z SOUNDING INDICATE A WELL ESTABLISHED CAP AT 800MB. MODELS
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THIS CAP AND DO NOT SHOW ANY EROSION UNTIL
TONIGHT ONCE THE FRONT ENTERS THE CWA. FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME
SHOWING A GRADUAL INCREASE OF POPS TODAY WITH ONLY SHOWERS MENTIONED
BUT THUNDER WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD WITH WELL PLACED SOUTHWEST JET AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO
INCREASE MAKING FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY DAY. TEMPERATURES
STARTING OFF RATHER MILD WITH A STEADY CLIMB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENTLY WARM WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WITH CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWING THIS TREND.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAP WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD. GOOD LIFT FROM THE FRONT AND MODEST
INSTABILITY WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. UPPER JET STRENGTHENS AND
DIVERGENCE INCREASES AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
YESTERDAY`S CREW BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS AND DO NOT
SEE ANY REASON TO LOWER. PWATS EXCEED SEASONAL NORMALS AND DECENT
DIVERGENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP POST FRONT LIFT GOING WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. DECENT RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK GOOD FOR EVERYONE. HPC QPF VALUES
RANGE FROM .3 TO 1 INCH SO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCATIONS SEEING
OVER 2 INCHES IN THE HEAVIER TSTMS. MILD TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT DO NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A STEADY FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND DOWN
THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. NOT A
BARN BURNING FOR WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM NORTH AND 3 TO 6 AM SOUTH.
SUNDAY GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WITH A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION WITH DIVERGENT FLOW REMAINING IN
PLACE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 850MB. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN RATHER
HIGH WITH STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDER...ALTHOUGH DECREASING...WITH
SOME LINGERING MU CAPE. RAIN TO TRANSITION INTO A MORE STRATIFORM
EVENT IF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WEAKENS COMPLETELY. TEMPERATURES TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MORNING WITH LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE
AFTERNOON. TRENDED WITH THE COOLER NAM/MET NUMBERS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE H5 TROUGH WILL BE
BEGINNING ITS EASTWARD TURN SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SW FLOW OVERHEAD.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH...WITH GOOD CONTINUING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. ENOUGH SFC
INSTABILITY COULD BE REMAINING AT THE SFC AND COLD AIR ALOFT FOR
RAINFALL TO SPARK SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY...MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE H5 TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING QUICKLY AND SKIES
CLEARING TO THE WEST. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THROUGH TEXAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH MINIMAL RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S ON THURSDAY. SFC RIDGE
STRETCHING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX QUICKLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD TO FAIR MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT PUSHES
TROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. PLENTY OF RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS
APPROACHING 7 FEET. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH
WINDS BECOMING L/V MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
RELAX...FALLING TO 2 TO 3 FEET. SOUTH WINDS RETURN ON
TUESDAY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY BELOW 10 KNOTS. THE NEXT
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
68/53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
602 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
TODAY WILL SEE A WELCOME BREAK IN THE RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SNOW AND RAIN YESTERDAY DIVES
SOUTHWARD...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. FOG
HAS SETTLED IN MAINLY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM
PINE BLUFFS TO SIDNEY...AND UP NEAR ALLIANCE. A LOOK AT AREA SFC
OBS SHOWS A WEAK LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ADVECT
THE FOG ESE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH EVENTUAL
CLEARING EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE CWA TODAY WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOS COLUMN WILL WARM TODAY WITH
FAIRLY GOOD LLVL MIXING ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AVERAGING ABOUT 5 TO
10F HIGHER...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS IN THE PANHANDLE.
A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL FURTHER DEEPEN THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WITH A THERMAL
RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD. MOS GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...AND THINK
THAT WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT FROM WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
SO...MAINTAINED THE TREND FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH 50S IN THE WEST. REGARDING THE WINDS...THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PRESSURE FALLS DEEPEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE PATTERN IS
NOT INCREDIBLY FAVORABLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT AS THE DEEPEST
PRESSURE FALLS LOOK TO BE TOO FAR TO THE EAST TO HAVE A
SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT ON THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH THAT
SAID...THE WRKHGT PRODUCT SHOWS THE LLVL GRADIENT INCREASING TO
AROUND 60 DAM DURING THE TIME OF STRONGEST WAA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WHICH LOOKS TO DEVELOP A CAPPING INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN
TOP. THIS SETUP WILL NO DOUBT BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE WIND
PRONE REGIONS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
700 MB WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO JUST AROUND 50 KTS AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE LACKING OVERALL...SO NOT THINKING WINDS WILL
BECOME ALL THAT STRONG TO WARRANT A HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HAVE SUSTAINED 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WIND PRONE
AREAS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH FOR NOW THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE LEESIDE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MAINLY ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD WITHIN
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING
OF THE WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND HOW THIS WAVE WILL
IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED VORT LOBE
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WE
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER FAIRLY NICE DAY SETTING UP FOR MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH...IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY AND MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
SUNDAY. STANDARDIZED 700MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FROM THE GEFS ARE
SHOWING STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 WHICH WILL
ALLOW US TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT WE
WOULD NOT EXPECT THEM TO REACH RECORD VALUES. WE DID BACK OFF ON
HIGHS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE SOME NEGATIVE TILT ALONG WITH A
DIGGING JET.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY:
THE ECMWF/GEM APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE AND
SHOWS THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE FORCING FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL ALL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT WHERE THE JET ENERGY FOCUSES AT. ALL OF THESE
SOLUTIONS DUE BRING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND SPREADING SOUTH ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME...SINCE THERE IS LIMITED FRONTOGENESIS...BUT THERE IS
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH THE SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
FOR A SHORT TIME PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE AREA AND BEFORE 18Z IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.
THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BY TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE SYNOPTIC LIFT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER JET MOVING OUT OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY:
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. NOT EXPECTING A BIG WARM UP AT THIS TIME...BUT
IF THIS SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT A LITTLE SOONER THINGS MAY WARM UP A
BIT QUICKER. FOR NOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS WHICH COULD SPELL 50S FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH 40S TO THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 457 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
LATEST FOG IMAGERY WAS SHOWING DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY FROM SCOTTSBLUFF SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SIDNEY.
MICROPHYSICS FROM THE VIIRS IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF
A WELL DEFINED BAND OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG STRETCHING FROM DIA TO
ALLIANCE TERMINAL. CURRENTLY...ALLIANCE IS RECEIVING SOME FOG AS WELL.
SURFACE FLOW IS FAIRLY LIGHT AT SCOTTSBLUFF WHICH IS A GOOD
INDICATION THAT A FAIRLY GOOD INVERSION IS TAKING SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SIDNEY HAS SOMEWHAT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH
SHOULD HELP ERODE THE FOG BY AROUND 15Z OR SO. THE LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING THE FOG ERODING AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL. NOT REAL
CONFIDENT ABOUT SCOTTSBLUFF ERODING THAT SOON...BUT IF THE SUN CAN
PENETRATE THE STRATUS DECK IT MAY BE ABLE TO ERODE BY MID MORNING.
AFTER THE FOG ERODES WE SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
DRY...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LESS WIND
IN THE PANHANDLE. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD 60 DEGREE READINGS AND A FEW 70S LIKELY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S. FURTHER WEST...HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL COINCIDE
WITH HUMIDITIES REMAINING 25 PERCENT OR HIGHER. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 601 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE THIS MORNING FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NIOBRARA COUNTY...AND HIGHWAY 20
REMAINS CLOSED FROM LUSK TO THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE. THE FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 530 PM THIS
EVENING. SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS IN KIMBALL COUNTY REMAIN CLOSED THIS
MORNING DUE TO FLOODING...AND THE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO
330 PM FOR THIS AREA. KIMBALL COUNTY OFFICIALS WILL VISIT THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO REASSESS THE EXTENT OF FLOODING AND ROAD
CLOSURES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
HYDROLOGY...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
459 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
TODAY WILL SEE A WELCOME BREAK IN THE RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SNOW AND RAIN YESTERDAY DIVES
SOUTHWARD...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. FOG
HAS SETTLED IN MAINLY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM
PINE BLUFFS TO SIDNEY...AND UP NEAR ALLIANCE. A LOOK AT AREA SFC
OBS SHOWS A WEAK LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ADVECT
THE FOG ESE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH EVENTUAL
CLEARING EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE CWA TODAY WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOS COLUMN WILL WARM TODAY WITH
FAIRLY GOOD LLVL MIXING ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AVERAGING ABOUT 5 TO
10F HIGHER...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS IN THE PANHANDLE.
A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL FURTHER DEEPEN THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WITH A THERMAL
RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD. MOS GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...AND THINK
THAT WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT FROM WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
SO...MAINTAINED THE TREND FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH 50S IN THE WEST. REGARDING THE WINDS...THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PRESSURE FALLS DEEPEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE PATTERN IS
NOT INCREDIBLY FAVORABLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT AS THE DEEPEST
PRESSURE FALLS LOOK TO BE TOO FAR TO THE EAST TO HAVE A
SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT ON THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH THAT
SAID...THE WRKHGT PRODUCT SHOWS THE LLVL GRADIENT INCREASING TO
AROUND 60 DAM DURING THE TIME OF STRONGEST WAA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WHICH LOOKS TO DEVELOP A CAPPING INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN
TOP. THIS SETUP WILL NO DOUBT BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE WIND
PRONE REGIONS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
700 MB WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO JUST AROUND 50 KTS AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE LACKING OVERALL...SO NOT THINKING WINDS WILL
BECOME ALL THAT STRONG TO WARRANT A HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HAVE SUSTAINED 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WIND PRONE
AREAS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH FOR NOW THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE LEESIDE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MAINLY ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD WITHIN
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING
OF THE WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND HOW THIS WAVE WILL
IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED VORT LOBE
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WE
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER FAIRLY NICE DAY SETTING UP FOR MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH...IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY AND MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
SUNDAY. STANDARDIZED 700MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FROM THE GEFS ARE
SHOWING STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 WHICH WILL
ALLOW US TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT WE
WOULD NOT EXPECT THEM TO REACH RECORD VALUES. WE DID BACK OFF ON
HIGHS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE SOME NEGATIVE TILT ALONG WITH A
DIGGING JET.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY:
THE ECMWF/GEM APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE AND
SHOWS THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE FORCING FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL ALL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT WHERE THE JET ENERGY FOCUSES AT. ALL OF THESE
SOLUTIONS DUE BRING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND SPREADING SOUTH ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME...SINCE THERE IS LIMITED FRONTOGENISIS...BUT THERE IS
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH THE SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
FOR A SHORT TIME PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE AREA AND BEFORE 18Z IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.
THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BY TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE SYNOPTIC LIFT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER JET MOVING OUT OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY:
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. NOT EXPECTING A BIG WARM UP AT THIS TIME...BUT
IF THIS SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT A LITTLE SOONER THINGS MAY WARM UP A
BIT QUICKER. FOR NOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS WHICH COULD SPELL 50S FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH 40S TO THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 457 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
LATEST FOG IMAGERY WAS SHOWING DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY FROM SCOTTSBLUFF SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SIDNEY.
MICROPHYSICS FROM THE VIIRS IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF
A WELL DEFINED BAND OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG STRETCHING FROM DIA TO
ALLIANCE TERMINAL. CURRENTLY...ALLIANCE IS RECEIVING SOME FOG AS WELL.
SURFACE FLOW IS FAIRLY LIGHT AT SCOTTSBLUFF WHICH IS A GOOD
INDICATION THAT A FAIRLY GOOD INVERSION IS TAKING SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SIDNEY HAS SOMEWHAT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH
SHOULD HELP ERODE THE FOG BY AROUND 15Z OR SO. THE LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING THE FOG ERODING AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL. NOT REAL
CONFIDENT ABOUT SCOTTSBLUFF ERODING THAT SOON...BUT IF THE SUN CAN
PENETRATE THE STRATUS DECK IT MAY BE ABLE TO ERODE BY MID MORNING.
AFTER THE FOG ERODES WE SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
DRY...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LESS WIND
IN THE PANHANDLE. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD 60 DEGREE READINGS AND A FEW 70S LIKELY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S. FURTHER WEST...HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL COINCIDE
WITH HUMIDITIES REMAINING 25 PERCENT OR HIGHER. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
348 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2014
...Updated Short Term and Long Term sections...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
The large scale zonal flow pattern across much of the central and
northern CONUS will lead to continued lower-mid tropospheric
downslope conditions for the Western Plains today. A very warm lower
troposphere is already in place just off the surface (850mb
temperatures of +16 to +18C per the RAP analysis yesterday evening
across the northwestern portion of Kansas). Overnight temperatures
through 08Z have been rather mild with upper 30s to mid 40s quite
common across much of southwestern and west central Kansas. The
aforementioned very warm lower troposphere and a warm start to the
day will lead to the already advertised very warm afternoon. We went
ahead and adjusted the afternoon temperatures up another degree or
two with some 80-degree highs now forecast for the Hays area as well
as the Red Hills region near the Oklahoma border. 75 to 78F for
highs will be common elsewhere. Winds will be very light today with
the MSLP gradient quite relaxed across western Kansas thanks to
several mesoscale low pressure perturbations across the Western and
Central Plains embedded within a larger synoptic scale lee trough
across much of the Great Plains. An upper level trough will be
forming across the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies late
tonight, and this will allow a more prominent surface low to form
across far northwestern Kansas. This will increase the pressure
gradient some overnight leading to increased overnight winds around
11 to 14 knots. Lows will again be fairly mild by early-mid March
standards in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave digging
southeast across the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains
Tuesday setting up precip chances for portions of western and
central Kansas late Tuesday afternoon and evening. A strong
attendant cold front ahead of the approaching system will push
southeast across western Kansas by Tuesday afternoon creating
ample forcing near the surface. Meanwhile, an +90kt upper level jet
axis is projected to shift southeast across western Kansas Tuesday
afternoon/evening as it streams northeast out of the trough axis in
the Desert Southwest. As a result, light rain is expected to develop
across some areas of central and western Kansas with a possible
brief switchover so snow overnight as the upper level system quickly
moves through. However, lacking moisture availability in the
lower/mid levels may hinder much in the way of measurable precip
across the area. Dry conditions are then likely through at least
Thursday as the flow aloft becomes more westerly while moisture
remains generally absent.
Temperatures will cool off quite a bit Tuesday as arctic air spills
southward into western Kansas in wake of the cold front moving
through by early afternoon. Although high temperatures are likely to
occur earlier in the day, highs are still expected up into the
50s(F) across central and west central Kansas with temperatures only
down into the 40s(F) first thing Tuesday morning. The lower to
possibly the mid 60s(F) are still likely across south central Kansas
before the front moves through. More seasonal temperatures are then
forecast through the end of the week as the flow aloft becomes more
zonal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
The downslope pattern we are in will lead to continued VFR
conditions through Tuesday evening. Given the overall broad low
pressure across the the western plains, there will be very little
pressure gradient leading to light winds at less than 8 knots
during much of the day Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 40 57 27 / 0 0 20 20
GCK 76 39 55 26 / 0 0 20 20
EHA 77 41 58 27 / 0 0 10 20
LBL 77 39 58 27 / 0 0 10 20
HYS 80 39 55 27 / 0 0 30 40
P28 79 41 62 30 / 0 0 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
425 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THE
REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
SHOULD MISS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
SEVERAL HIGH-RES MODELS...INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR...PUTTING OUT
A SMALL STRIPE OF PRECIPITATION. CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE 00Z PIT
SOUNDING WAS...HAVE DECIDED TO JUST ADD SCATTERED SPRINKLES INTO
THE FORECAST WITH MEASUREABLE RAIN NOT EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S DESPITE CLOUD COVER.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT...AND WITH SKIES ONLY PARTIALLY
CLEARING...THINK THAT TONIGHT COULD BE RATHER WARM. WHILE
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE THAT MAY STILL HAVE
SOME SNOW COVER SHOULD DROP TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK...REST OF
THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY...ARRIVING LOCALLY TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES ALONG THE
FRONT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY...PASSING FROM
KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIP
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF DETAILS THAT WILL BRING CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION IN MOST LOCATIONS TO CHANGE FROM RAIN
TO SNOW SLIGHTLY QUICKER. COUPLED JET IS MOST APPARENT IN 00Z
NAM...ALTHOUGH GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWED THIS SIGNATURE TO A
LESSER EXTENT. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS HIGHEST RATES COULD OCCUR
AS PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. WARMER AIR ALOFT COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. OVERALL...FEEL THAT SOUTHERNMOST
LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHILE LOCATIONS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
DEPENDING ON JUST HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE
FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. WILL ADD MENTION OF THE STORM IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
ANY GIVEN SCENARIO TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A TUMBLE ALL THE WAY
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS UP NORTH AND LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN THURS. COLD AIR WONT LINGER
LONG AS STRONG WAA KICKS IN BY THURS EVENING AS A WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE COLDER THAN AVG TEMPS THURS WILL GIVE
WAY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVG TEMPS FRI BEFORE ANOTHER...WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE
FEATURE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER RUNS. COLDER AIR LINGERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER ERN
CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A BRIEF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER EARLY
TODAY...HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING. EVENTUAL CLEARING OCCURS
LATER MON EVENING.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WDSPRD RSTRNS ARE EXPD TUE NGT INTO WED EVE AS LOW PRES TRACKS
ACRS THE UPR OH VLY RGN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BREEZY COMBINATION OF WARMTH WITH INCRSG
DEWPOINTS FOLLOWED BY RAIN WL ELIMINATE ANY RMNG SNOW IN THE
RIDGES. WITH THE QPF OF THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM ON THE ORDER OF
THREE QUARTERS TO AN INCH...FLOODING CONCERNS SHOULD BE
LOCAL...HOWEVER...RIDGE ZONE CREEKS AND THE MONONGAHELA RIVER
BASINS WL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS THE RMNG WATER EQUIVALENT IS
ACTIVATED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
501 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS WHICH HAS ALLOWED MILDER PACIFIC
AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WAS MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO. AT
THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH A FRONT
EXTENDING TO THE SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS OVERNIGHT ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S.
TODAY...PCPN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
OTHERWISE...AREAS OF MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON BOOSTING LOW LEVEL MIXING AND WARMING. WITH 925
MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 3C TO 6C THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SUBSIDENCE AND 700-50 MB
QVECTOR PREVAILING AS THE NRN ONTARIO SHRTWV MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
AS THE SFC LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE NW WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR MOVING IN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH MIN READINGS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH THAT HAS AFFECTED THE EASTERN CONUS FOR
MUCH OF THE WINTER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AND...FROM THE LOOKS OF THE CFS AND OTHER LONG TERM
OUTLOOKS...THROUGH THE REST OF MARCH. FORTUNATELY FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANY SIGNS OF SPRING...WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A WEAK DISRUPTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY MILDER PACIFIC AIR AND ANOTHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT THESE ARE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND
OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING NORTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE
EAST THROUGH QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. A STEADY SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL
START MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ALL
OF THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT
-21C. WITH THIS STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST TO
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT HIGHS ON
TUESDAY TO OCCUR DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAYTIME PERIOD AND
THEN STEADILY FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WITH THE COLD AIR...IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS AND LOCAL WRF INDICATE THE
MOISTURE BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCES.
BIGGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR COMES DURING THE EVENING...AS ANOTHER
TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE AREA AND SHIFTS LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...UPSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME HEAT FLUXES OFF THE MAINLY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR
SHOULD SUPPORT UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IN NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
WINDS WILL BEGIN BACKING NORTHERLY DURING THE EVENING...SO
ATTEMPTED TO SHOW A TRANSITION UP IN POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME
TO THE PEAK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES
PERSISTENT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL THE SETUP LOOKS TO BE
SIMILAR TO THIS PAST FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
ABOUT 10C COLDER ALOFT WITH A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE. THOSE COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE CLOUD LAYER OUT OF THE DGZ AND
WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY 3-4KFT...WOULDN/T EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TO
BE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO IN THE TRADITIONAL HIGHER TERRAIN
OF MARQUETTE/BARAGA COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...BUT WITH LIMITED TERRAIN
LIFT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE WINNIPEG ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA AND LEAD TO
BACKING WINDS TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY HELD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THIS
PAST SATURDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS WEAKENED. CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY SINCE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON VALUES IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE NORTH AND THE LOW-MID TEENS
OVER THE SOUTH. THAT SEEMS ENTIRELY REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT ANY INFLUENCE OF THE
WARM MARCH SUN. THE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMP FOR MARCH 12TH IS 15
DEGREES AND DURING THE DAY THAT WILL BE EASILY SURPASSED. BUT
BREAKING IT WILL DEPEND ON TEMPERATURES AT MIDNIGHT...SINCE CURRENT
FOREAST IS RIGHT IN THE MID TEENS AT THAT TIME.
THE HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT AND WITH PWATS AROUND 15-20 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND
CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS WILL REALLY DROP. GOING FORECAST IS IN DECENT
SHAPE WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO OVER THE WEST HALF
AND -10 TO -15 BELOW OVER THE EAST. THAT MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
GREAT PERFORMING GEM (ON RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS) AND ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS. COULD BREAK A RECORD
LOW AT MANISTIQUE (-7 IN 1948) AND MAYBE MUNISING (-10 IN
1926)...BUT THINK NEWBERRY/S -23 IN 1905 MAY BE OUT OF REACH.
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING...AREA WILL COME
UNDER ANOTHER WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPS OVER
THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING WITH
THE STRONG/BROAD 850-700MB WAA. MODELS SEEM TO BECOMING LESS
EXCITED ON QPF AMOUNTS AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND FORCING BROADENS...SO
WILL CONTINUE JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST AND THEN
DIMINISH AS THEY HEAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WAA WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUNDING OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA AND
RISING INTO THE LOWER 30S.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK WILL
LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF UPPER
MICHIGAN AND HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. IF THE
LOW TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH LIKE THE TRENDS IN GEM/GFS...COULD
SEE TEMPS INTO THE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. BASED OFF THE
PATTERN...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS FOR A PERIOD
ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE INITIAL TROUGH AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ONCE THAT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND A TRANSITION BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND
(HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S). 850MB TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
BETWEEN -12C AND -15C...SO IF ANY LARGER AREAS OF WATER OPEN UP ON
LAKE SUPERIOR THERE COULD BE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND KEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
SINCE THE LATEST SFC OBS AND 00Z RAOBS INDICATE THE LLVL AIRMASS WL
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE AT ALL
3 TAFS SITES THRU THIS MRNG. BEST CHC FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD
BE AT CMX AS A LO PRES TROF SETTLES OVER THAT LOCATION AND ENHANCES
LLVL CNVGC. AS A LO PRES MOVES SOUTHEAST THRU ONTARIO...EXPECT A
GUSTY W TO NW WIND TO DEVELOP FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ATTENDANT LO
PRES TROF IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. THE MORE
EXPOSED CMX LOCATION SHOULD SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH LAKE BREEZE
WIND COMPONENT ENHANCING THE FLOW. SINCE THE INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE
DRY...VFR WX WL BE THE RULE. THE GUSTY WINDS WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRES MOVES TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE WITH NW TO N WINDS INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED INTO WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER THE NRN LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BRINGS WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1204 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAW UP SOME MILDER AIR FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MICHIGAN.
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE IN LOWER
MICHIGAN. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
AMOUNT OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW WITH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...AND THERE IS A
FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO FORM. FSL RUC AND HRRR RUC
ARE SHOWING THESE LOW CLOUDS FORMING. IF THEY DO FORM AND HOLD
THROUGH THE DAY...GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY END UP CORRECT IN SHOWING
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S. HOWEVER LIKE TODAY...THE LOW
CLOUDS DID BREAK UP AND THAT COULD HAPPEN TOMORROW. STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP THIS TO HAPPEN. SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE
MILD LOW 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURES.
LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY IS FAIRLY LOW AS
THE LIFT LOOKS WEAK AND THERE IS SOME DRY AIR BELOW THE MOIST DGZ.
I WILL KEEP THE POPS AT LOW LEVELS. TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THE
LOW TRACKING UP THE OH VALLEY WILL LIKELY SPREAD SNOW INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MI. SOME DECENT MID LEVEL FGEN AND DIVERGENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THERE IS ALSO SOME
WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY SHOWING UP AROUND THE DGZ...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT A STRONGER BAND OF SNOW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS ON
THIS. I WILL MAINTAIN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE I94 CORRIDOR.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW AFTER 00Z WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER SURFACE LOW OVER THE OH
VALLEY FOR WED. WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM...THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS
LIABLE TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THE
STEADIER SNOWS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CLIP AT LEAST THE FAR SE CWA.
SNOW ACCUMS IN CALHOUN AND JACKSON COUNTIES COULD REACH TOWARD SIX
INCHES BY WED EVENING. IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP CUT OFF
TO THE SNOW TO THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96. THIS CONTINUES
TO BE AN EVOLVING SOLUTION AS THE NORTH AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
THAT PRODUCE THIS SYSTEM WAS JUST MAKING IT ONTO THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST TODAY...AND THE SOLUTION IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
THE OTHER IMPRESSIVE ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM IS THE COLD AIR THAT
FOLLOWS IT. H8 TEMPS DIVE TO AROUND -17C...WHICH HAS TRENDED
COLDER. THIS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS ON
WED...INTO THE TEENS BY EVENING. THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT QUICKLY WED
NIGHT AND WITH CLEARING SKIES...MINS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND ZERO.
THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BE RECORD LEVELS. CURRENT RECORDS FOR 03/13
ARE 5F AT GRR...2F AT MKG...AND -3F AT LAN.
THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...BUT
THEN TURNING COOLER AGAIN DURING NEXT WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS APPEAR TO IMPACT SW MI...ALTHOUGH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
IS SHOWN OVER THE TN VALLEY BY SUNDAY WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW
TO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
STILL NO EVIDENCE OF ANY LOW CLOUDS FORMING AT MIDNIGHT AND SFC
WINDS ARE STILL HOLDING ABOVE 10 KNOTS. HAVE DECIDED TO BE LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING BUT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SOME LIGHT FOG AND SCATTERED
CLOUDS BLO 1000 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 09Z-15Z WHICH
WOULD OFFER A BETTER OPPORTUNITY OF THIS OCCURRING.
OTHERWISE... OUTSIDE OF ANY STRATUS/FOG ISSUES WHICH IS LOW
CONFIDENCE... LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20-25KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS SEEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES IS PREDICTED FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL MELTING. TEMPERATURES DO COOL
DOWN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL SLOWLY DOWN OR
STOP ANY MELTING. TEMPERATURES THEN TRY TO MODERATE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE SNOWPACK WILL ONLY SLOWLY RELEASE SOME
OF ITS WATER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH LIMITED RUNOFF WATER LEVELS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STABLE THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH POCKETS
OF VFR AT TIMES FOR LRD-ALI-CRP...MAINTAINING A MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SHOULD MAINTAIN MOSTLY VFR
AROUND VCT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE. UPPER LOW WILL SWING
EAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH VCSH EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW TREKS OVERHEAD. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF QUIET ACTIVITY
BETWEEN 12Z-18Z. CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A 5-10KT NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TAKING ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT DURING THE
LATE AFTN/EVNG.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...NEWEST 00Z NAM12 AND HRRR COMING IN DRIER OVERNIGHT...
WITH BULK OF PRECIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...
BEGINNING TO SEE AXIS OF WAA INCREASING FROM BROOKS NORTHWEST INTO
WEBB COUNTY AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY RAIN DEVELOPING.
IN ADDITION...ELEVATED SHOWERS SEEN SOUTHWEST OF WEBB COUNTY
ACROSS TAMPAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON MEXICO MOVING NORTHEAST. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS...WITH MAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND WEST
OF I-37 AND LOW TO NO CHANCES NORTHEAST OF I-37. MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDER.
DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND HOLDING IN THE LOWS 50S...AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA HOLDING IN THE UPPER 40S TO EVEN RISING TO AROUND
50.
AFTER A POSSIBLE LULL IN PRECIP MONDAY MORNING...STILL ON TRACK
FOR MAIN FORCING WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO SPREAD INTO
WESTERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP CHANCES DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...THEN
MOVING EAST INTO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY...VICTORIA
CROSSROADS...AND COASTAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS NEXT 24 HRS ALONG WITH
PRECIP AT TIMES. CIGS ARE PROG TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LOW END MVFR
AND IFR THIS EVENING /MAY PREVAIL AT MVFR LONGER AT KCRP AND KVCT/.
SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT PRIMARILY KLRD/KALI/KCOT
WITH PERHAPS BETTER AREAL COVERAGE BETWEEN APPROX 6Z TO 10Z...ALSO
EXPANDING CLOSER TO KCRP B/W 6Z TO 10Z AS WELL. VSBYS/CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO IFR DRNG PRECIP /IF NOT AT IFR ALREADY/ WITH BRIEF LIFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IF PRECIP IS HEAVY ENOUGH. KVCT IS CURRENTLY XPCTD
TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT...FOR THE MOST PART. A MORE PRONOUNCED LULL
IN PRECIP MAY EXIST AT ALL TERMINALS FROM LATE NIGHT THRU THE MRNG
HRS MONDAY...BUT PERSISTENT MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL PREVAIL. AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHRA AND PERHAPS TSRA XPCTD TO DVLP VCNTY
KLRD/KCOT MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN MONDAY AND THEN SPREAD EWRD DRNG THE
AFTN. HAVE MENTION OF PRECIP AGAIN FOR ALL TERMINALS MON AFTN.
GENERALLY LIGHT NNWRLY WINDS XPCTD THRU THE TAF PERIOD...SHIFTNG
SLIGHTLY MORE NERLY ON MONDAY. AMENDMENTS TO TAFS MAY BE REQUIRED
THRU THE TAF PERIOD BASED OFF FUTURE RADAR RETURNS AND PRECIP
DVLPMNT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 52 76 55 65 45 / 60 10 10 0 10
VICTORIA 52 77 52 63 40 / 60 10 10 0 10
LAREDO 51 86 55 69 44 / 30 10 10 0 0
ALICE 50 80 53 66 42 / 50 10 10 0 10
ROCKPORT 54 73 55 65 47 / 70 10 10 0 10
COTULLA 48 83 52 66 40 / 30 10 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 51 78 55 65 43 / 50 10 10 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 54 74 56 65 49 / 60 10 10 0 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CB/85...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1049 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
...WARMER TODAY WITH PASSING CLOUDS OVER FL ZONES...
.UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION
CONTINUED TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME KEEPING TROUGHING
WELL NNE OF THE AREA. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED BY AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS TO PORTIONS OF OUR FL ZONES TODAY AS
IT DRIFTS ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THESE CLOUDS MAY BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST MAX TEMPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES FROM FORECAST VALUES IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 70S. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT THOSE UNDER THE STRATUS DECK COULD
HAVE A FEW SPRITZ OF NON-MEASURABLE DRIZZLE WHICH THE HRRR MODEL
ADVERTISED ACROSS LEVY AND MARION COUNTIES MIDDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR TODAY WITH MVFR DUE TO GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT GNV.
&&
.MARINE...TWEAKED THE WAVE HEIGHTS DOWNWARD BY AROUND 1 FT BASED
ON OBSERVATIONS...WITH FORECAST HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FT NEARSHORE TODAY
TO 2-3 FT OFFSHORE. LIGHT WNW WINDS 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY
GROUND SWELLS NEAR 1 FT WITH PERIODS OF 11 SECONDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 79 52 81 56 / 0 10 20 60
SSI 75 56 75 58 / 0 0 10 50
JAX 78 52 81 56 / 0 10 10 40
SGJ 74 55 77 59 / 0 10 10 40
GNV 79 50 80 56 / 0 10 20 50
OCF 79 50 81 57 / 0 10 10 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/GUILLET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
603 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2014
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
The large scale zonal flow pattern across much of the central and
northern CONUS will lead to continued lower-mid tropospheric
downslope conditions for the Western Plains today. A very warm lower
troposphere is already in place just off the surface (850mb
temperatures of +16 to +18C per the RAP analysis yesterday evening
across the northwestern portion of Kansas). Overnight temperatures
through 08Z have been rather mild with upper 30s to mid 40s quite
common across much of southwestern and west central Kansas. The
aforementioned very warm lower troposphere and a warm start to the
day will lead to the already advertised very warm afternoon. We went
ahead and adjusted the afternoon temperatures up another degree or
two with some 80-degree highs now forecast for the Hays area as well
as the Red Hills region near the Oklahoma border. 75 to 78F for
highs will be common elsewhere. Winds will be very light today with
the MSLP gradient quite relaxed across western Kansas thanks to
several mesoscale low pressure perturbations across the Western and
Central Plains embedded within a larger synoptic scale lee trough
across much of the Great Plains. An upper level trough will be
forming across the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies late
tonight, and this will allow a more prominent surface low to form
across far northwestern Kansas. This will increase the pressure
gradient some overnight leading to increased overnight winds around
11 to 14 knots. Lows will again be fairly mild by early-mid March
standards in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave digging
southeast across the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains
Tuesday setting up precip chances for portions of western and
central Kansas late Tuesday afternoon and evening. A strong
attendant cold front ahead of the approaching system will push
southeast across western Kansas by Tuesday afternoon creating
ample forcing near the surface. Meanwhile, an +90kt upper level jet
axis is projected to shift southeast across western Kansas Tuesday
afternoon/evening as it streams northeast out of the trough axis in
the Desert Southwest. As a result, light rain is expected to develop
across some areas of central and western Kansas with a possible
brief switchover so snow overnight as the upper level system quickly
moves through. However, lacking moisture availability in the
lower/mid levels may hinder much in the way of measurable precip
across the area. Dry conditions are then likely through at least
Thursday as the flow aloft becomes more westerly while moisture
remains generally absent.
Temperatures will cool off quite a bit Tuesday as arctic air spills
southward into western Kansas in wake of the cold front moving
through by early afternoon. Although high temperatures are likely to
occur earlier in the day, highs are still expected up into the
50s(F) across central and west central Kansas with temperatures only
down into the 40s(F) first thing Tuesday morning. The lower to
possibly the mid 60s(F) are still likely across south central Kansas
before the front moves through. More seasonal temperatures are then
forecast through the end of the week as the flow aloft becomes more
zonal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. As for winds, a lee side trough of low pressure will
persist across southeastern Colorado into northwestern Kansas
through tonight resulting in light southwesterly winds across
central Kansas to more light and variable winds closer to the
Colorado border.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 40 57 27 / 0 0 20 20
GCK 76 39 55 26 / 0 0 20 20
EHA 77 41 58 27 / 0 0 10 20
LBL 77 39 58 27 / 0 0 10 20
HYS 80 39 55 27 / 0 0 30 40
P28 79 41 62 30 / 0 0 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
644 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THE
REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
SHOULD MISS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
SEVERAL HIGH-RES MODELS...INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR...PUTTING OUT
A SMALL STRIPE OF PRECIPITATION. CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE 00Z PIT
SOUNDING WAS...HAVE DECIDED TO JUST ADD SCATTERED SPRINKLES INTO
THE FORECAST WITH MEASUREABLE RAIN NOT EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S DESPITE CLOUD COVER.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT...AND WITH SKIES ONLY PARTIALLY
CLEARING...THINK THAT TONIGHT COULD BE RATHER WARM. WHILE
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE THAT MAY STILL HAVE
SOME SNOW COVER SHOULD DROP TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK...REST OF
THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY...ARRIVING LOCALLY TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES ALONG THE
FRONT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY...PASSING FROM
KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIP
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF DETAILS THAT WILL BRING CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION IN MOST LOCATIONS TO CHANGE FROM RAIN
TO SNOW SLIGHTLY QUICKER. COUPLED JET IS MOST APPARENT IN 00Z
NAM...ALTHOUGH GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWED THIS SIGNATURE TO A
LESSER EXTENT. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS HIGHEST RATES COULD OCCUR
AS PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. WARMER AIR ALOFT COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. OVERALL...FEEL THAT SOUTHERNMOST
LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHILE LOCATIONS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
DEPENDING ON JUST HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE
FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. WILL ADD MENTION OF THE STORM IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
ANY GIVEN SCENARIO TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A TUMBLE ALL THE WAY
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS UP NORTH AND LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN THURS. COLD AIR WONT LINGER
LONG AS STRONG WAA KICKS IN BY THURS EVENING AS A WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE COLDER THAN AVG TEMPS THURS WILL GIVE
WAY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVG TEMPS FRI BEFORE ANOTHER...WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE
FEATURE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER RUNS. COLDER AIR LINGERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER ERN
CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOWER THIS MORNING...BUT
PRIMARILY THICKER CLOUD COVER. STILL EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
MON WITH GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING. CLOUDS DISSIPATE MON AFTN AND
EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE SOME BORDERLINE MVFR
STRATUS FOR ERN TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO WED EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BREEZY COMBINATION OF WARMTH WITH INCRSG
DEWPOINTS FOLLOWED BY RAIN WL ELIMINATE ANY RMNG SNOW IN THE
RIDGES. WITH THE QPF OF THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM ON THE ORDER OF
THREE QUARTERS TO AN INCH...FLOODING CONCERNS SHOULD BE
LOCAL...HOWEVER...RIDGE ZONE CREEKS AND THE MONONGAHELA RIVER
BASINS WL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS THE RMNG WATER EQUIVALENT IS
ACTIVATED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
809 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS WHICH HAS ALLOWED MILDER PACIFIC
AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WAS MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO. AT
THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH A FRONT
EXTENDING TO THE SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS OVERNIGHT ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S.
TODAY...PCPN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
OTHERWISE...AREAS OF MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON BOOSTING LOW LEVEL MIXING AND WARMING. WITH 925
MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 3C TO 6C THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SUBSIDENCE AND 700-50 MB
QVECTOR PREVAILING AS THE NRN ONTARIO SHRTWV MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
AS THE SFC LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE NW WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR MOVING IN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH MIN READINGS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH THAT HAS AFFECTED THE EASTERN CONUS FOR
MUCH OF THE WINTER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AND...FROM THE LOOKS OF THE CFS AND OTHER LONG TERM
OUTLOOKS...THROUGH THE REST OF MARCH. FORTUNATELY FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANY SIGNS OF SPRING...WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A WEAK DISRUPTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY MILDER PACIFIC AIR AND ANOTHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT THESE ARE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND
OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING NORTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE
EAST THROUGH QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. A STEADY SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL
START MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ALL
OF THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT
-21C. WITH THIS STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST TO
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT HIGHS ON
TUESDAY TO OCCUR DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAYTIME PERIOD AND
THEN STEADILY FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WITH THE COLD AIR...IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS AND LOCAL WRF INDICATE THE
MOISTURE BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCES.
BIGGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR COMES DURING THE EVENING...AS ANOTHER
TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE AREA AND SHIFTS LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...UPSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME HEAT FLUXES OFF THE MAINLY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR
SHOULD SUPPORT UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IN NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
WINDS WILL BEGIN BACKING NORTHERLY DURING THE EVENING...SO
ATTEMPTED TO SHOW A TRANSITION UP IN POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME
TO THE PEAK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES
PERSISTENT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL THE SETUP LOOKS TO BE
SIMILAR TO THIS PAST FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
ABOUT 10C COLDER ALOFT WITH A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE. THOSE COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE CLOUD LAYER OUT OF THE DGZ AND
WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY 3-4KFT...WOULDN/T EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TO
BE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO IN THE TRADITIONAL HIGHER TERRAIN
OF MARQUETTE/BARAGA COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...BUT WITH LIMITED TERRAIN
LIFT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE WINNIPEG ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA AND LEAD TO
BACKING WINDS TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY HELD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THIS
PAST SATURDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS WEAKENED. CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY SINCE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON VALUES IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE NORTH AND THE LOW-MID TEENS
OVER THE SOUTH. THAT SEEMS ENTIRELY REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT ANY INFLUENCE OF THE
WARM MARCH SUN. THE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMP FOR MARCH 12TH IS 15
DEGREES AND DURING THE DAY THAT WILL BE EASILY SURPASSED. BUT
BREAKING IT WILL DEPEND ON TEMPERATURES AT MIDNIGHT...SINCE CURRENT
FOREAST IS RIGHT IN THE MID TEENS AT THAT TIME.
THE HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT AND WITH PWATS AROUND 15-20 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND
CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS WILL REALLY DROP. GOING FORECAST IS IN DECENT
SHAPE WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO OVER THE WEST HALF
AND -10 TO -15 BELOW OVER THE EAST. THAT MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
GREAT PERFORMING GEM (ON RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS) AND ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS. COULD BREAK A RECORD
LOW AT MANISTIQUE (-7 IN 1948) AND MAYBE MUNISING (-10 IN
1926)...BUT THINK NEWBERRY/S -23 IN 1905 MAY BE OUT OF REACH.
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING...AREA WILL COME
UNDER ANOTHER WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPS OVER
THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING WITH
THE STRONG/BROAD 850-700MB WAA. MODELS SEEM TO BECOMING LESS
EXCITED ON QPF AMOUNTS AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND FORCING BROADENS...SO
WILL CONTINUE JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST AND THEN
DIMINISH AS THEY HEAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WAA WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUNDING OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA AND
RISING INTO THE LOWER 30S.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK WILL
LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF UPPER
MICHIGAN AND HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. IF THE
LOW TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH LIKE THE TRENDS IN GEM/GFS...COULD
SEE TEMPS INTO THE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. BASED OFF THE
PATTERN...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS FOR A PERIOD
ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE INITIAL TROUGH AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ONCE THAT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND A TRANSITION BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND
(HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S). 850MB TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
BETWEEN -12C AND -15C...SO IF ANY LARGER AREAS OF WATER OPEN UP ON
LAKE SUPERIOR THERE COULD BE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND KEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
SINCE THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAFS SITES AFTER THS
SHALLO RADIATION FOG DISSIPATES AT CMX. AS A LO PRES MOVES SOUTHEAST
THRU ONTARIO...EXPECT A GUSTY W TO NW WIND TO DEVELOP FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRES TROF IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION SHOULD SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS WITH LAKE BREEZE WIND COMPONENT ENHANCING THE FLOW.
SINCE THE INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE DRY...VFR WX WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE RULE. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRES MOVES TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE WITH NW TO N WINDS INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED INTO WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER THE NRN LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BRINGS WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
854 AM PDT Mon Mar 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Another wet day for southeastern Washington and north Idaho is
expected today...with showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
over much of eastern Washington. Flooding once again may be an
issue with this very wet storm. Snow levels will remain high
enough to not pose a significant threat to any passes or higher
elevation routes. High pressure will then build in after today for
drier and mild conditions. Following this dry period will be an
increased threat of valley rain and mountain snow beginning
Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
2nd update this morning to cool todays forecast max temperatures a
few degrees based primarily on the expectation of cooling produced
by the convection addressed in the earlier update. Additionally
the mention of non accumulating snow over most locations mid-slope
down to valleys is utilized to address the soft hail or collapsed
snowflakes produced by the convection. Discussion concerning
earlier update involving increased pops and QPF remains below in
the 2nd paragraph.
Increased pops with a morning update primarily based on how the
past two to three HRRR model runs have been depicting a mesoscale
low circulation centered in Eastern Washington this morning, which
is behind the cloud shield associated with a larger low pressure
system, is expected to act as a lifting trigger. It will utilized
the cold pool instability over the area today and into this early
evening and promote continued showers and possibly some
thunderstorms during the early parts of the day. Storm motion of
any afternoon/early evening thunderstorms that form should take
them to the southeast at about 25-35 mph. The type of
thunderstorms that may occur are the weak, low topped, single or
multicell type, that could produce heavy rain and small soft hail
but the gusty wind due to the quick storm motion would be the
bigger nuisance.
/Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The first 6-8 hours of the forecast period will feature
widespread MVFR ceilings and vis in -RA over the eastern TAF sites
as a moist occluded front transits the region. The KMWH and KEAT
TAF sites will be largely skipped by this weather system for
mainly VFR conditions. After 18Z-20Z steady pcpn will taper off to
scattered to numerous showers. Instability generated by the
passage of a cool upper trough this afternoon will create a risk
of isolated TSRA east of a line from KOMK to KALW. Conditions will
improve to mainly VFR but a chance of brief MVFR ceilings in
shower cores. Beginning after 00Z and continuing through the end
of the TAF period dry continental air will invade the region and
bring clearing skies with VFR conditions to all TAF sites. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 48 30 46 27 51 32 / 100 20 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 47 29 45 26 51 29 / 100 20 0 0 0 0
Pullman 48 32 47 30 53 33 / 100 40 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 52 35 53 33 59 36 / 100 50 0 0 0 0
Colville 51 29 54 26 54 28 / 100 20 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 47 28 44 25 47 27 / 100 20 0 0 0 10
Kellogg 44 30 46 29 50 31 / 100 40 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 58 32 53 30 55 32 / 100 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 55 32 52 32 54 34 / 100 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 55 28 50 28 52 30 / 70 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
832 AM PDT Mon Mar 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Another wet day for southeastern Washington and north Idaho is
expected today...with showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
over much of eastern Washington. Flooding once again may be an
issue with this very wet storm. Snow levels will remain high
enough to not pose a significant threat to any passes or higher
elevation routes. High pressure will then build in after today for
drier and mild conditions. Following this dry period will be an
increased threat of valley rain and mountain snow beginning
Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Increased pops with a morning update primarily based on how the
past two to three HRRR model runs have been depicting a mesoscale
low circulation centered in Eastern Washington this morning, which
is behind the cloud shield associated with a larger low pressure
system, is expected to act as a lifting trigger. It will utilized
the cold pool instability over the area today and into this early
evening and promote continued showers and possibly some
thunderstorms during the early parts of the day. Storm motion of
any afternoon/early evening thunderstorms that form should take
them to the southeast at about 25-35 mph. The type of
thunderstorms that may occur are the weak, low topped, single or
multicell type, that could produce heavy rain and small soft hail
but the gusty wind due to the quick storm motion would be the
bigger nuisance. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The first 6-8 hours of the forecast period will feature
widespread MVFR ceilings and vis in -RA over the eastern TAF sites
as a moist occluded front transits the region. The KMWH and KEAT
TAF sites will be largely skipped by this weather system for
mainly VFR conditions. After 18Z-20Z steady pcpn will taper off to
scattered to numerous showers. Instability generated by the
passage of a cool upper trough this afternoon will create a risk
of isolated TSRA east of a line from KOMK to KALW. Conditions will
improve to mainly VFR but a chance of brief MVFR ceilings in
shower cores. Beginning after 00Z and continuing through the end
of the TAF period dry continental air will invade the region and
bring clearing skies with VFR conditions to all TAF sites. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 30 46 27 51 32 / 100 20 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 50 29 45 26 51 29 / 100 20 0 0 0 0
Pullman 49 32 47 30 53 33 / 100 40 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 56 35 53 33 59 36 / 100 50 0 0 0 0
Colville 53 29 54 26 54 28 / 100 20 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 47 28 44 25 47 27 / 100 20 0 0 0 10
Kellogg 44 30 46 29 50 31 / 100 40 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 60 32 53 30 55 32 / 100 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 58 32 52 32 54 34 / 100 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 56 28 50 28 52 30 / 70 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
115 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG STORM CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WEST. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
IDAHO...IT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO DIG MORE SOUTH AND SETTLE OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH AND NEVADA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA...AND FALL
TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AREAWIDE BY MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALSO ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN
THIS EVENING. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING LOCALIZED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
60MPH ACROSS THE PLAIN...BUT MOST GUSTS WILL NOT EXCEED 55MPH. THE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN UNTIL 9PM.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THAT
UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND PERHAPS EXTEND IT INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS
ESPECIALLY AS THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...THE PATTERN BECOMES RATHER COMPLEX THIS EVENING.
IN TERMS OF THE MOUNTAINS...WE WILL SEE TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE. THE FIRST IS ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS
AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD BEAR LAKE. THE OTHER IS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM CHALLIS TO GALENA SUMMIT. THE BIGGER
AMOUNTS OVERALL WILL FALL OVER THE EAST. THE THIRD AREA IS A
COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE. BY MORNING...AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE WILL LIE ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
CRATERS TO POCATELLO LINE. UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE THIS MOISTURE BAND
ACROSS THE BENCHES AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS FROM NEAR ST. ANTHONY TO
AROUND POCATELLO. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER AROUND 4500-5000FT SO
THESE AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST MIX DOWN LOW AND ALL SNOW ABOVE THE
BENCHES. IN TERMS OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...THE
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE 0.10-0.20 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST AND 0.20-0.50
INCHES IN THE EAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A TRACE TO 3 INCHES
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD IT APPEARS. WE MAY SEE A
DUSTING ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-15 BUT IT WILL
NOT STICK AROUND LONG. IN TERMS OF WINTER AND FLOOD HEADLINES...WE
WILL LET ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS RIDE AND WILL LET THE EVENING
SHIFT DECIDE IF ANYTHING NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WE WILL SEE ANY RAIN OR SNOW CONFINED TO
AROUND BEAR LAKE AND DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
IDAHO. WE WILL SEE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER TOMORROW AS WELL.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY DRY. WITH THE DRY AREA
MOVING IN...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A VERY CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA AND A DECENT WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER VALLEYS AND ISLAND PARK...WITH 10S
AND 20S ELSEWHERE. GUIDANCE ACTUALLY POINTS TO EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES BUT FOR NOW TRENDED ONLY PARTIALLY THAT DIRECTION.
HIGHS BOUNCE BACK INTO 40S/LOWS 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOW/MID 30S
AT RIDGETOP. KEYES
.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MON NIGHT. LONGWAVE PATTERN
INDICATES A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF IDAHO THAT SLOWLY
DE-AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS TO THE COAST STARTING SAT NIGHT. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS THAT MOVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE...THE MOST LIKELY ONE TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA IS A FRI
NIGHT/SAT SHORTWAVE. ZERO TO LITTLE EFFECT IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
POCATELLO...AND ONLY LITTLE EFFECT NORTH OF THIS. THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM IS HOW WARM IT WILL GET...WITH THE ECMWF BEING COLDER AND
CLOUDIER. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH GETS LARGE BEYOND THE
FRI NIGHT TROUGH. NO REAL SIGNIFICANT WIND WITH TEMPS GENERALLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MESSICK
&&
.AVIATION...WIND HAVING A HARD TIME DEVELOPING...AND SUN VALLEY JUST
BELOW FIELD MINIMUMS. LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON. FOR ALL AIRDROMES. LOWEST CIGS
EXPECTED ARE MARGINAL VFR. HRRR GUIDANCE OF LATE NOW SUGGESTS
STRONG WINDS SHORTLY AFTER 11/01Z IN THE KPIH AREA. SHOULDN`T BE MUCH
OF A PROBLEM SINCE THEY ARE ALIGNED WITH THE RUNWAY. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MESSICK
&&
.HYDROLOGY...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL BELOW 6500 FEET COMBINED
WITH MELTING SNOW WILL CREATE AN INCREASED THREAT OF FLOODING FOR
SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS IN THE BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER
REGION AND THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE
AREAS INCLUDE THE CITIES OF KETCHUM...HAILEY... ASHTON AND ST
ANTHONY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME. WYATT
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ017-020-021.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW 6500 FEET FOR THE
IDZ031.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING ABOVE 7500 FEET
FOR THE IDZ018-031.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT BELOW 6500 FEET FOR THE
IDZ019.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT ABOVE 7000 FEET
FOR THE IDZ019.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2014
...Updated long term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
The large scale zonal flow pattern across much of the central and
northern CONUS will lead to continued lower-mid tropospheric
downslope conditions for the Western Plains today. A very warm lower
troposphere is already in place just off the surface (850mb
temperatures of +16 to +18C per the RAP analysis yesterday evening
across the northwestern portion of Kansas). Overnight temperatures
through 08Z have been rather mild with upper 30s to mid 40s quite
common across much of southwestern and west central Kansas. The
aforementioned very warm lower troposphere and a warm start to the
day will lead to the already advertised very warm afternoon. We went
ahead and adjusted the afternoon temperatures up another degree or
two with some 80-degree highs now forecast for the Hays area as well
as the Red Hills region near the Oklahoma border. 75 to 78F for
highs will be common elsewhere. Winds will be very light today with
the MSLP gradient quite relaxed across western Kansas thanks to
several mesoscale low pressure perturbations across the Western and
Central Plains embedded within a larger synoptic scale lee trough
across much of the Great Plains. An upper level trough will be
forming across the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies late
tonight, and this will allow a more prominent surface low to form
across far northwestern Kansas. This will increase the pressure
gradient some overnight leading to increased overnight winds around
11 to 14 knots. Lows will again be fairly mild by early-mid March
standards in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
Very windy conditions will continue early Tuesday night based on
the tight surface pressure gradient located near the Oklahoma
border and the surface to 850mb winds forecast from the latest
model soundings. In addition to the strong winds, low level
moisture will be on the increase Tuesday evening. Based on the
depth of this moisture early Tuesday night there still appears to
be a chance for light precipitation, especially across north
central Kansas. Will retain the higher chances early Tuesday night
near the I-70 corridor based on the depth of the low level
moisture along with some mid level forcing forecast to be present
at 00z Wednesday ahead of an upper level trough. As for
precipitation type Tuesday evening will favor mainly drizzle/rain
given the 12z BUFR soundings in the Hays area. A mix of drizzle
and light snow is still not out of the question for a few hours
prior to the precipitation chances shifting east as the upper
level trough moves across central Kansas. Further south will lower
precipitation chances but kept a mention of patchy light drizzle
going until around 03z. Gusty winds are expected to decrease into
the 10 to 15 mph range after midnight as a surface and 850mb high
begins to build into western Kansas. Skies are also expected to
clear from north to south.
On Wednesday the surface to 850mb high will move into the
southern plains and a northwesterly downslope flow will improve
across western Kansas. This downslope flow will continue on
Thursday. 850mb temperature from 00z Thursday to 00z Friday across
all of western Kansas warm around 10c and based on this warming
trend and the 850mb temperatures at 00z Thursday forecast to range
from 10C to 15c will continue to favor highs rebounding from the
50s on Wednesday with 60s for highs on Thursday.
A weak upper level disturbance will cross the central plains
Thursday night/early Friday as a cold front crosses western
Kansas. At this time it appears only mid level moisture will
accompany this upper wave so at this time only mention an increase
in cloud cover.
By the start of the weekend period models begin to diverge on the
development of an upper level ridge axis across the western United
States along with several subtle upper level disturbance rotating
around this upper ridge and out into the plains. At this time
given a persistent northwest flow will continue to favor the
latest CRExtendFcst_Init with keeping temperatures at or slightly
above the seasonal normals from Friday through Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
A weak surface trough will develop in the lee of the Rockies
though tonight, resulting in a resumption of southerly winds.
A strong cold front will pass across KGCK/KDDC/KHYS between
12-15z Tuesday, resulting in increasing northwesterly winds.
VFR conditions will persist in the absence of low level moisture.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 40 57 26 53 / 0 20 10 0
GCK 39 55 24 52 / 0 20 10 0
EHA 41 58 26 50 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 39 58 25 52 / 0 10 10 0
HYS 39 55 26 52 / 0 30 30 0
P28 41 62 29 54 / 0 20 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Finch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
102 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2014
...Updated for aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
The large scale zonal flow pattern across much of the central and
northern CONUS will lead to continued lower-mid tropospheric
downslope conditions for the Western Plains today. A very warm lower
troposphere is already in place just off the surface (850mb
temperatures of +16 to +18C per the RAP analysis yesterday evening
across the northwestern portion of Kansas). Overnight temperatures
through 08Z have been rather mild with upper 30s to mid 40s quite
common across much of southwestern and west central Kansas. The
aforementioned very warm lower troposphere and a warm start to the
day will lead to the already advertised very warm afternoon. We went
ahead and adjusted the afternoon temperatures up another degree or
two with some 80-degree highs now forecast for the Hays area as well
as the Red Hills region near the Oklahoma border. 75 to 78F for
highs will be common elsewhere. Winds will be very light today with
the MSLP gradient quite relaxed across western Kansas thanks to
several mesoscale low pressure perturbations across the Western and
Central Plains embedded within a larger synoptic scale lee trough
across much of the Great Plains. An upper level trough will be
forming across the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies late
tonight, and this will allow a more prominent surface low to form
across far northwestern Kansas. This will increase the pressure
gradient some overnight leading to increased overnight winds around
11 to 14 knots. Lows will again be fairly mild by early-mid March
standards in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave digging
southeast across the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains
Tuesday setting up precip chances for portions of western and
central Kansas late Tuesday afternoon and evening. A strong
attendant cold front ahead of the approaching system will push
southeast across western Kansas by Tuesday afternoon creating
ample forcing near the surface. Meanwhile, an +90kt upper level jet
axis is projected to shift southeast across western Kansas Tuesday
afternoon/evening as it streams northeast out of the trough axis in
the Desert Southwest. As a result, light rain is expected to develop
across some areas of central and western Kansas with a possible
brief switchover so snow overnight as the upper level system quickly
moves through. However, lacking moisture availability in the
lower/mid levels may hinder much in the way of measurable precip
across the area. Dry conditions are then likely through at least
Thursday as the flow aloft becomes more westerly while moisture
remains generally absent.
Temperatures will cool off quite a bit Tuesday as arctic air spills
southward into western Kansas in wake of the cold front moving
through by early afternoon. Although high temperatures are likely to
occur earlier in the day, highs are still expected up into the
50s(F) across central and west central Kansas with temperatures only
down into the 40s(F) first thing Tuesday morning. The lower to
possibly the mid 60s(F) are still likely across south central Kansas
before the front moves through. More seasonal temperatures are then
forecast through the end of the week as the flow aloft becomes more
zonal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
A weak surface trough will develop in the lee of the Rockies
though tonight, resulting in a resumption of southerly winds.
A strong cold front will pass across KGCK/KDDC/KHYS between
12-15z Tuesday, resulting in increasing northwesterly winds.
VFR conditions will persist in the absence of low level moisture.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 40 57 26 / 0 0 20 10
GCK 76 39 55 24 / 0 0 20 10
EHA 77 41 58 26 / 0 0 10 10
LBL 77 39 58 25 / 0 0 10 10
HYS 80 39 55 26 / 0 0 30 30
P28 79 41 62 29 / 0 0 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Finch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
407 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED AND
UPPER LOW DRIFTING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH THE PAC NW.
AT THE SFC...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.
AFTER CONTENDING WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY HAS UNFOLDED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PLENTY OF SUN
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING OFF A
LITTLE TO THE EAST INTO TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST A WEAK
RETURN FLOW TO SET UP. WITH SHELF WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S...AREAS OF SEA FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AS AIR CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS BEGINS TO
ADVECT ATOP IT. LATEST HRRR AND RUC FCSTS INDICATE FOG DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF CAMERON...THEN DEVELOPING
FARTHER NORTH/INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DREW IN AREAS OF
FOG THAT GENERALLY MATCHES THIS EVOLUTION...BUT AM A LITTLE
HESITANT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WOULD PREFER TO LET
THE EVENING CREW SEE HOW THE SITUATION BEGINS TO EVOLVE.
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
ASSOCIATED N-S LOW PRESSURE TROF. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES
TO BE PROGGED TO OCCUR OVER THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...AND SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
RETAINED IN THESE AREAS. RAINFALL IS FCST TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY SEA FOG
WILL PERSIST AND PERHAPS EVEN SPREAD FARTHER EAST AMID WINDS
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SW.
ON THE HEELS OF THIS LEAD SYSTEM...A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT
IS STILL ON TRACK TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BRING AN END TO ANY SEA
FOG...AND WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE HAVING BEEN SHUNTED EASTWARD
BY THE LEAD SYSTEM...THE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY ONE. AMID
BRISK NORTH WINDS...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO
NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST AS THE POST-FRONTAL HIGH SETTLES SOUTH
INTO TEXAS.
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE...WITH A WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK CONTINUES TO BE ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE...AND GENERALLY A BLEND
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LATEST WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED.
13
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM CAMERON TO HIGH ISLAND
THIS EVENING...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD INTO SABINE AND CALCASIEU
LAKES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE WITHIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 57 71 57 65 / 50 50 10 10
KBPT 56 74 57 66 / 60 40 10 10
KAEX 55 74 56 62 / 20 40 10 10
KLFT 58 70 57 66 / 40 80 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
121 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS WHICH HAS ALLOWED MILDER PACIFIC
AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WAS MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO. AT
THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH A FRONT
EXTENDING TO THE SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS OVERNIGHT ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S.
TODAY...PCPN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
OTHERWISE...AREAS OF MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON BOOSTING LOW LEVEL MIXING AND WARMING. WITH 925
MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 3C TO 6C THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 OVER MOST OF THE CWA.
TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SUBSIDENCE AND 700-50 MB
QVECTOR PREVAILING AS THE NRN ONTARIO SHRTWV MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
AS THE SFC LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE NW WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR MOVING IN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH MIN READINGS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH THAT HAS AFFECTED THE EASTERN CONUS FOR
MUCH OF THE WINTER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AND...FROM THE LOOKS OF THE CFS AND OTHER LONG TERM
OUTLOOKS...THROUGH THE REST OF MARCH. FORTUNATELY FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANY SIGNS OF SPRING...WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A WEAK DISRUPTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY MILDER PACIFIC AIR AND ANOTHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT THESE ARE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND
OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING NORTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE
EAST THROUGH QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. A STEADY SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL
START MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ALL
OF THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT
-21C. WITH THIS STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST TO
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT HIGHS ON
TUESDAY TO OCCUR DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAYTIME PERIOD AND
THEN STEADILY FALL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WITH THE COLD AIR...IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS AND LOCAL WRF INDICATE THE
MOISTURE BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCES.
BIGGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR COMES DURING THE EVENING...AS ANOTHER
TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE AREA AND SHIFTS LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...UPSLOPE
FLOW AND SOME HEAT FLUXES OFF THE MAINLY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR
SHOULD SUPPORT UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IN NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
WINDS WILL BEGIN BACKING NORTHERLY DURING THE EVENING...SO
ATTEMPTED TO SHOW A TRANSITION UP IN POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME
TO THE PEAK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES
PERSISTENT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL THE SETUP LOOKS TO BE
SIMILAR TO THIS PAST FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
ABOUT 10C COLDER ALOFT WITH A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE. THOSE COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE CLOUD LAYER OUT OF THE DGZ AND
WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY 3-4KFT...WOULDN/T EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TO
BE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO IN THE TRADITIONAL HIGHER TERRAIN
OF MARQUETTE/BARAGA COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...BUT WITH LIMITED TERRAIN
LIFT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE WINNIPEG ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA AND LEAD TO
BACKING WINDS TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY HELD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THIS
PAST SATURDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS WEAKENED. CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY SINCE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON VALUES IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE NORTH AND THE LOW-MID TEENS
OVER THE SOUTH. THAT SEEMS ENTIRELY REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT ANY INFLUENCE OF THE
WARM MARCH SUN. THE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMP FOR MARCH 12TH IS 15
DEGREES AND DURING THE DAY THAT WILL BE EASILY SURPASSED. BUT
BREAKING IT WILL DEPEND ON TEMPERATURES AT MIDNIGHT...SINCE CURRENT
FOREAST IS RIGHT IN THE MID TEENS AT THAT TIME.
THE HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT AND WITH PWATS AROUND 15-20 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND
CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS WILL REALLY DROP. GOING FORECAST IS IN DECENT
SHAPE WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO OVER THE WEST HALF
AND -10 TO -15 BELOW OVER THE EAST. THAT MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE
GREAT PERFORMING GEM (ON RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS) AND ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS. COULD BREAK A RECORD
LOW AT MANISTIQUE (-7 IN 1948) AND MAYBE MUNISING (-10 IN
1926)...BUT THINK NEWBERRY/S -23 IN 1905 MAY BE OUT OF REACH.
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING...AREA WILL COME
UNDER ANOTHER WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPS OVER
THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING WITH
THE STRONG/BROAD 850-700MB WAA. MODELS SEEM TO BECOMING LESS
EXCITED ON QPF AMOUNTS AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND FORCING BROADENS...SO
WILL CONTINUE JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST AND THEN
DIMINISH AS THEY HEAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WAA WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUNDING OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA AND
RISING INTO THE LOWER 30S.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK WILL
LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF UPPER
MICHIGAN AND HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. IF THE
LOW TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH LIKE THE TRENDS IN GEM/GFS...COULD
SEE TEMPS INTO THE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. BASED OFF THE
PATTERN...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS FOR A PERIOD
ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE INITIAL TROUGH AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ONCE THAT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND A TRANSITION BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND
(HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S). 850MB TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
BETWEEN -12C AND -15C...SO IF ANY LARGER AREAS OF WATER OPEN UP ON
LAKE SUPERIOR THERE COULD BE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND KEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAFS SITES THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE MORNING. ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MVFR CIGS WITH SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL FORM AT ALL
SITES. WINDS WILL GET GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
A LOW PRES TROF IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRES MOVES TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE WITH NW TO N WINDS INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED INTO WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER THE NRN LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BRINGS WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
352 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
PRODUCING A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA FOR SOME OF TUESDAY...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY
A COASTAL LOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO START
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT MONDAY...STILL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SFC WARM FRONT POSITIONED NEAR THE
CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS. RATHER WIDE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30 FOR THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...NORTHERN
GREENS AND EASTERN VERMONT TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AREAS.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AS A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW NOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. A BURST OF LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
SYNOPTIC LIFT TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SOON AS 7 PM OR SO IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND TOWARDS 10 PM IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE REST OF
VERMONT. THIS IS REFLECTED IN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BECOMING
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WITH A GRADUAL TAPER DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
TOWARD MORNING. HI-RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY PROGS SUCH AS THE BTV WRF
RUNS AND RECENT HRRR SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STEADY BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN THIRD OF
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL ALSO HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH QPF UP TO .20-.25" IN NORTHEAST VERMONT. THERE ARE A
FEW LIMITING FACTORS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: (1) MARGINAL SFC
TEMPERATURES FOR THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS RESULTING
IN P-TYPES OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE EVENT
AND (2) LOWER THAN AVERAGE SLR`S (NEAR 10:1 THOUGH A BIT HIGHER AT
ELEVATION). PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO STAY ALL SNOW THE LONGEST
ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE GROUND TEMPS ARE
SUB-FREEZING. THAT SAID...I`VE OPTED TO GO WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEYS...UP TO 2" IN NORTHEAST VERMONT...AND 2-4" FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS JAY PEAK AND MT MANSFIELD.
LOWS FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30...NOT FALLING MUCH FROM CURRENT
VALUES GIVEN OVERCAST SKIES.
LOOKING AT SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY PART OF
TUESDAY FOR THE NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...BUT CONDITIONS DO
BEGIN TO IMPROVE WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FALL TO AROUND -6C TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM BUT
MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
TODAY...MAINLY MID 30S TO THE LOW 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WL IMPACT THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY WEDS INTO THURS WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...
WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHILE
WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNING FOR THE DACKS...CPV...CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VT.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS SYSTEM OF INTEREST NOW ACRS THE NW CONUS WITH
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY STILL LOCATED ACRS NORTH/CENTRAL CANADA.
THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY WL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BY 12Z WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY.
FULL LATITUDE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOMING CLOSED OFF ACRS EASTERN NY INTO
SNE. THE COMBINATION OF A DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE AND POTENT S/W
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE TROF...WL RESULT IN RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OF SYSTEM. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW RRQ OF 120 JET LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN
CANADA WHILE LFQ OF SUB-TROPICAL JET IS STREAKING ACRS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS DUAL STRUCTURE
WL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER LIFT AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS FROM NEAR PITTSBURGH PA TO CAPE COD. THE EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS OCCURRING WL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN THE
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL/QPF ACRS OUR CWA...IF IT OCCURS TO OUR
EAST...MUCH LESS IMPACTS. THE UKMET/GEM STILL HINT AT THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER/DEEPER.
THE LATEST 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW THIS PHASING OCCURRING FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...RESULTING IN MUCH GREATER IMPACTS
ACRS OUR CWA. THIS PLACES OUR CWA IN THE FAVORABLE FRONT SIDE WAA
LIFT/MOISTURE ON WEDS AND BACKSIDE DEFORMATION/UPSLOPE PRECIP ON
THURSDAY. ALSO...HAVE NOTED A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TRACK IN SFC LOW
...WHICH DOES PLACE PTYPE AN ISSUE ACRS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA.
BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES VERY CLOSE TO A
MIX...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS WITH THE 540 LINE INTO CENTRAL VT.
GFS SOUNDING AT VSF SHOWS 825MB TEMP AROUND 3C...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT A MIX WITH RAIN POSSIBLE ON WEDS EVENING. WL MENTION SOME
MIX ACRS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZNS AND IN WSW TEXT PRODUCT.
USING A BLEND BTWN THE ECMWF/GFS AND NAM SHOWS INITIAL SURGE OF WAA
FGEN FORCING DEVELOPING BTWN 12Z-15Z WEDS...WITH STRONGEST 850 TO
700MB FORCING/UVVS ON 1ST PART OF THE SYSTEM OCCURRING ON WEDS
AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH PWS SURGING ABOVE 0.50"
OR 150% OF NORMAL AND STRONG DYNAMICS...THINKING SNOWFALL RATES OF 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WL BE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME ON WEDS
EVENING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AMOUNT OF SHADOWING/IMPACTS OF TRRN
ASSOCIATED WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS ON WEDS.
THINKING TRRN IMPACTS WL BE MINIMAL AS DIRECTION IS MORE
NORTHERLY...THEN EAST...BUT WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR SOME
SHADOWING ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. INITIAL WAA LIFT/MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED THERMAL PROFILES WL RESULT IN SNOW RATIOS BTWN 10 AND
14 TO 1...WITH TOTAL QPF BTWN 0.20 AND 0.50 ACRS OUR
CWA...RESULTING IN A GENERAL 3 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS NEAR 10" POSSIBLE ON THE SE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE GREEN
MTNS FROM KILLINGTON TO STOWE AND EASTERN DACKS.
THE 2ND PART IMPACTS OUR REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO MOST OF
THURSDAY NOW...WITH VERY FAVORABLE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION/UPSLOPE FLW.
BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW GOOD RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH...STRONG
850 TO 700MB FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY WARM AIR CONVEYOR ALOFT
AND DEVELOPING LLVL CAA ON NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
SYSTEM DEEPENING AND BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED...WL RESULT IN A
SLOWER SHIFT EASTWARD AND PROLONGED UPSLOPE FLW. ADDITIONAL BACKSIDE
QPF/UPSLOPE FLW QPF WL RANGE FROM 0.25" SLV/LWR CT RIVER VALLEY TO
0.50 TO 0.75"...WESTERN SLOPES/DACKS/CPV/NEK. AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP...STRONG LLVL CAA WL OCCUR AND OUR SNOW RATIOS ASSOCIATED
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZN WL JUMP BTWN 20 AND 30 TO 1. THE QPF
COMBINED WITH HIGH FLUFF FACTOR SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8
INCHES SLV/LWR CT RIVER VALLEY...6 TO 12 INCHES
DACKS/NEK/CPV...AND 10 TO 16 INCHES WESTERN SLOPES. SO ADDING BOTH
PARTS TOGETHER RESULTS IN A WIDESPREAD 10 TO 20 INCH EVENT WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS BY
LATE THURSDAY. WATCH CONTS FOR UNCERTAINTY ACRS THE SLV...THINKING
A GENERAL 6 TO 12 POSSIBLE.
AS 975MB LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDS NIGHT/THURSDAY
...THE PRES GRADIENT WL TIGHTEN ACRS OUR CWA...WITH VERY
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ANTICIPATED. HAVE NOTED BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOWING
925MB WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...LATE WEDS INTO THURS...WITH WELL
ALIGNED FLW ACRS THE SLV/CPV...DUE TO TRRN. THIS WL PRODUCE SFC
WIND GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...ALONG WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
THE OPEN/EXPOSED AREAS. THESE NORTH WINDS WL ALSO QUICKLY ADVECT
BITTERLY COLD TEMPS INTO OUR REGION LATE WEDS INTO THURS WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -20 AND -24C. WL TREND TWD THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE ON THURS WITH HIGHS NEAR ZERO MTNS TO SINGLES/TEENS
WARMER VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN VERMONT THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST FROM GREAT LAKES AND CRESTS OVER FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH ANTICIPATED FRESH SNOWPACK SHOULD
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT GENERALLY 5
ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO...EXCEPT LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER MOUNTAIN LOCALES...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL RACE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL CHANCE FEW SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
GONE WITH 30-40 POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...SO A FEW MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S SATURDAY...AND COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES ON SUNDAY.
LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF MONDAY. GFS INDICATING A
PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO REGION WHILE ECMWF HAS FORECAST AREA ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE GONE
WITH A COMPROMISE...NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS WOULD INDICATE...AND
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF A 30 POP FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS THEN DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPS AROUND 01-02Z THIS EVENING AT MSS/SLK AND 02-04Z AT THE
REMAINING TAF SITES WITH NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR DURING TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. WINDS S-SW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING WESTERLY 8-15 KTS TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH PSBL MVFR IN SNOW SHWRS.
12Z WED - 18Z THU...IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DUE DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM PITTSBURGH PA WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
18Z THU - 00Z FRI...IMPROVING TO VFR. NORTH WINDS GUSTING 30 KTS.
00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. S-SW WINDS 15-25 KTS FRIDAY AFTN.
00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...MVFR WITH PSBL IFR VSBY AT TIMES IN SNOW SHWRS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR NYZ028>031-034-035.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-027-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
334 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
PRODUCING A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA FOR SOME OF TUESDAY...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY
A COASTAL LOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO START
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT MONDAY...STILL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SFC WARM FRONT POSITIONED NEAR THE
CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS. RATHER WIDE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30 FOR THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...NORTHERN
GREENS AND EASTERN VERMONT TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AREAS.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AS A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW NOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. A BURST OF LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
SYNOPTIC LIFT TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SOON AS 7 PM OR SO IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND TOWARDS 10 PM IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE REST OF
VERMONT. THIS IS REFLECTED IN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BECOMING
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WITH A GRADUAL TAPER DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
TOWARD MORNING. HI-RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY PROGS SUCH AS THE BTV WRF
RUNS AND RECENT HRRR SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STEADY BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN THIRD OF
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL ALSO HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH QPF UP TO .20-.25" IN NORTHEAST VERMONT. THERE ARE A
FEW LIMITING FACTORS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: (1) MARGINAL SFC
TEMPERATURES FOR THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS RESULTING
IN P-TYPES OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE EVENT
AND (2) LOWER THAN AVERAGE SLR`S (NEAR 10:1 THOUGH A BIT HIGHER AT
ELEVATION). PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO STAY ALL SNOW THE LONGEST
ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE GROUND TEMPS ARE
SUB-FREEZING. THAT SAID...I`VE OPTED TO GO WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEYS...UP TO 2" IN NORTHEAST VERMONT...AND 2-4" FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS JAY PEAK AND MT MANSFIELD.
LOWS FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30...NOT FALLING MUCH FROM CURRENT
VALUES GIVEN OVERCAST SKIES.
LOOKING AT SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY PART OF
TUESDAY FOR THE NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...BUT CONDITIONS DO
BEGIN TO IMPROVE WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FALL TO AROUND -6C TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM BUT
MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY SIMILAR TO
TODAY...MAINLY MID 30S TO THE LOW 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 423 PM EST MONDAY...SCT -SW GOING INTO TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO DECENT DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS EXITING LOW GIVES WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE...ALBEIT FOR A SHORT TIME. ANY REMAINING -SW DURING THE
DAY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO HIR TRRN W/ LITTLE TO NONE IN
VALLEY LOCALES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GOING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM...WHICH MDLS
HAVE BEEN TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR PAST
FEW DAYS. PRECIP SET TO BEGIN OVER AREA BY 12Z-15Z WED AS LOW
TRACKS THRU APPALACHIANS AND THEN BLOSSOMS SHARPLY AS LOW MVS
OFFSHORE LATER IN DAY TOWARDS EVENING HRS. MDLS SHOW QPF RANGING
FROM 0.25" UP TO ALMOST 0.75" AND BASED ON TRACK...SEEING ENTIRE
CWA TO SEE A LARGE DOSE OF HEAVY/WET SNOW. CURRENT RUNS FOR SNOW
AMTS HAVE CWA SEEING A RANGE OF 5 TO 9 INCHES THRU 00Z THURSDAY.
LOWEST TOTALS IN SLV AND HIGHEST POTENTIAL OVER SE VT BASE DON
TRACK AND EXPECTED ESE FLOW OVER AREA. ADDITIONAL AMTS GOING INTO
THE OVERNGT HRS. BASED ON THIS WITH MDL CONSISTENCY IN PAST FEW
RUNS...WILL BE GOING WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ENTIRE REGION.
TEMPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME WILL RANGE FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S TUESDAY
WITH SPOT 40S...THEN MAINLY IN THE 20S FOR WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR
WRAPS INTO AREA WITH STORM APPROACH. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE TEENS TO LOW/MID 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN VERMONT THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST FROM GREAT LAKES AND CRESTS OVER FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH ANTICIPATED FRESH SNOWPACK SHOULD
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT GENERALLY 5
ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO...EXCEPT LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER MOUNTAIN LOCALES...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL RACE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL CHANCE FEW SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AS
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
GONE WITH 30-40 POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...SO A FEW MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S SATURDAY...AND COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES ON SUNDAY.
LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF MONDAY. GFS INDICATING A
PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO REGION WHILE ECMWF HAS FORECAST AREA ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE GONE
WITH A COMPROMISE...NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS WOULD INDICATE...AND
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF A 30 POP FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS THEN DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPS AROUND 01-02Z THIS EVENING AT MSS/SLK AND 02-04Z AT THE
REMAINING TAF SITES WITH NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR DURING TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. WINDS S-SW 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING WESTERLY 8-15 KTS TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH PSBL MVFR IN SNOW SHWRS.
12Z WED - 18Z THU...IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DUE DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM PITTSBURGH PA WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
18Z THU - 00Z FRI...IMPROVING TO VFR. NORTH WINDS GUSTING 30 KTS.
00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. S-SW WINDS 15-25 KTS FRIDAY AFTN.
00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...MVFR WITH PSBL IFR VSBY AT TIMES IN SNOW SHWRS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR NYZ028>031-034-035.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-027-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
155 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...CHANGES MOST AREAS TO PARTLY SUNNY SINCE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING A BIT. BELIEVE THE TREND WILL CONTINUE. ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPS USING MODIFIED HRRR AS GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE PIECES OF JET ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE FIRST IS MOVING INTO WESTERN NY NOW WITH SOME LIFT OVER THE
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR IS LIKELY NOT REACHING THE
SURFACE BECAUSE OF THE DRY LAYER IN THE 00Z SOUNDINGS. HAVE
MENTIONED SOME SPRINKLES FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE AREA. THERE
COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO INLAND NW PA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS IT APPROACHES
LIFT WILL INCREASE BUT BELIEVE ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM NICELY WITH
HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR A CHANGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM INTO
THE 50S...EXCEPT WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE TOLEDO
AREA AND NW PA. THESE LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THIS EVENING WE COULD SEE SOME
LAKE INDUCED LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES FROM THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE
COUNTIES NORTHEAST INTO NW PA. IT MAY END UP JUST BEING SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OFF OF THE LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REACH
THE 50S FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. COOLER NEAR THE LAKE WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A LAKE BREEZE. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP IN SOME OF THE AFTERNOON WARMTH OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. SO WITH THAT SAID WE BELIEVE
MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE RAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE READY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FLOW INTO THE COLDER AIR AND PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO MAYBE HEAVY SNOWFALL. THE SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NW
OHIO FIRST THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT
IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SWATH OF SNOW WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO MEADVILLE. STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TRACK AND PRECIPITATION TYPE TO KEEP US FROM PINPOINTING SNOW
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER 4+ INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SWATH
OF HEAVIER SNOW.
MODEL TRENDS THIS WINTER SEASON HAVE BEEN TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
SEVERAL OF THE STORM SYSTEMS. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME OF THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING A FURTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE 850 MB
LOW MAKE US THINK THAT MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA COULD BE RAIN INTO MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. STAY
TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE LOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE REGION CAN GET SOME SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY
THEN MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH 40 DEGREES AGAIN ALL AREAS...UPPER 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR IS NOT THAT STRONG...BUT A SECONDARY PUSH
WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY STRUGGLING TO
REACH 30 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEAK SHORT WAVE IS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. PATCHES OF MID
CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS MY LIGHTEN UP ENOUGH FOR PATCHY
FOG...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW. NON-VFR WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE
TODAY...SHIFTING TO WESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE EAST
END OF THE LAKE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL DROP OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
BY MIDWEEK WE WILL BE WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR NORTH WINDS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH BUT
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 30 KNOTS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1214 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND BECOME THE TRACK FOR LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...CHANGES MOST AREAS TO PARTLY SUNNY SINCE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING A BIT. BELIEVE THE TREND WILL CONTINUE. ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPS USING MODIFIED HRRR AS GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE PIECES OF JET ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE FIRST IS MOVING INTO WESTERN NY NOW WITH SOME LIFT OVER THE
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR IS LIKELY NOT REACHING THE
SURFACE BECAUSE OF THE DRY LAYER IN THE 00Z SOUNDINGS. HAVE
MENTIONED SOME SPRINKLES FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE AREA. THERE
COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO INLAND NW PA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS IT APPROACHES
LIFT WILL INCREASE BUT BELIEVE ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM NICELY WITH
HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR A CHANGE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM INTO
THE 50S...EXCEPT WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE TOLEDO
AREA AND NW PA. THESE LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THIS EVENING WE COULD SEE SOME
LAKE INDUCED LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES FROM THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE
COUNTIES NORTHEAST INTO NW PA. IT MAY END UP JUST BEING SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OFF OF THE LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REACH
THE 50S FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. COOLER NEAR THE LAKE WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A LAKE BREEZE. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP IN SOME OF THE AFTERNOON WARMTH OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. SO WITH THAT SAID WE BELIEVE
MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE RAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE READY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FLOW INTO THE COLDER AIR AND PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO MAYBE HEAVY SNOWFALL. THE SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NW
OHIO FIRST THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT
IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SWATH OF SNOW WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO MEADVILLE. STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TRACK AND PRECIPITATION TYPE TO KEEP US FROM PINPOINTING SNOW
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER 4+ INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SWATH
OF HEAVIER SNOW.
MODEL TRENDS THIS WINTER SEASON HAVE BEEN TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
SEVERAL OF THE STORM SYSTEMS. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME OF THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING A FURTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE 850 MB
LOW MAKE US THINK THAT MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA COULD BE RAIN INTO MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. STAY
TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE LOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. IF THE REGION CAN GET SOME SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY
THEN MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH 40 DEGREES AGAIN ALL AREAS...UPPER 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR IS NOT THAT STRONG...BUT A SECONDARY PUSH
WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY STRUGGLING TO
REACH 30 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW PRECIPITATION TRYING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
HOWEVER LITTLE OF THIS HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND WITH A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER. A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF
SITES...MAINLY THROUGH 16Z...BEFORE DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE
WEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS WITH CEILINGS
BRIEFLY DROPPING TO 4-5K FEET. OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10-12
KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...
DESPITE A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SITES
IN NE OH/NW PA MAY SEE MVFR CLOUDS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT IN RAIN WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE
TODAY...SHIFTING TO WESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE EAST
END OF THE LAKE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL DROP OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.
BY MIDWEEK WE WILL BE WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR NORTH WINDS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH BUT
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 30 KNOTS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
212 PM PDT Mon Mar 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and snow will be ending overnight Monday. Quieter weather is
expected through Thursday. A weak weather front will bring light
rain to the area on Friday, with another chance of rain late
Sunday into next Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...cold pool and its associated instability located behind
a passing cold front all exit to the southeast and east tonight.
Small scale triggers rotating around the edges of a small scale
low pressure area nested in this same cooler air will act as
triggers. Additionally there is an increase in instability due to
surface heating allowed by sun breaks across parts of the
lowlands between the east side of the Cascades and the Idaho
Panhandle. For all these reasons and a number of HRRR model runs
depicting just such a scenario the forecast holds onto showers
along with very low wet bulb zero heights allowing for a typical
spring rain/snow/graupel/soft-hail mix of precipitation for
mid-slope down to valley and lowland locations with the expectation
that any accumulation associated with most intense convective
cells will be on the order of minutes rather than hours if at all.
Thunderstorm mention remains southeast third of Washington and
southern half of North Idaho into early evening with idea that
they will be weak, low topped, single or multicell type with
potential to produce heavy rain and small soft hail/collapsed snow
and gusty wind. Storm motion should be southeast at about 25-35
mph. /Pelatti
Tuesday through next Monday: High pressure builds into the area on
Tuesday for drier conditions. We will likely see some late
night/morning fog and low clouds in the valleys, but otherwise
should be nice weather. A minor weather system clips by to our
north on Wednesday evening but we don`t expect much weather from
this, other than some perhaps some mountain wind.
The next real good chance of precipitation arrives on Friday. This
system has a decent moisture tap. But the westerly flow will keep
the precipitation largely confined to the Cascades and Panhandle
mountains. ECMWF is slightly slower and wetter than the GFS. Snow
levels will remain high (6000` south, 5000` north) so there will
be little if any impact from this system. Does not look like
enough rain to cause any flooding concerns.
The weather system on it`s heels looks a little more formidable.
This wave has a narrow but well-defined moisture plume associated
with it. Initially it looks impressive with heavy rain pointed
into Vancouver Island and NW Washington. But as it moves eastward,
the GFS model spins up a low along this front well to our south
(west of San Francisco). This cuts off the moisture supply and we
are left with a dying frontal passage. The ECMWF meanwhile doesn`t
show this, and has a more consolidated wet front moving through on
Sunday night.
Temperatures ahead of this front have the potential to be the
warmest of the season so far, nearing 60F in the Spokane area. But
it won`t take much change in the timing to render a cooler and
wetter day for Sunday than currently forecast. Snow levels will
be very high (7000-8000`) so the passes will be all rain. The snow
levels lower by Monday morning and continue to lower during the
day. RJ
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A wet cold front has passed through a good portion of the
aviation area and behind it is a smaller low pressure system that
utilizing the unstable and moist atmosphere behind it to keep
convective showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms going through a
good part of the day and early evening...precipitation in the form
of rain and non accumulating snow and/or soft hail may occur near
more intense convection and produce IFR ceilings at times. This
activity will translate to the south and east and exit majority of
the aviation area near 2Z Tuesday which will then allow for
improvement with increasing ceilings and decreased cloud cover and
wind with VFR conditions more prevalent. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 30 48 27 53 32 55 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 29 47 26 52 30 54 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 32 48 28 54 34 55 / 70 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 35 54 33 60 36 62 / 60 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 29 53 26 54 27 55 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 28 45 24 47 28 50 / 20 0 0 0 10 10
Kellogg 30 45 29 49 31 50 / 60 10 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 32 55 30 57 33 60 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 32 53 32 55 33 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 28 52 28 53 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1103 AM PDT Mon Mar 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Another wet day for southeastern Washington and north Idaho is
expected today...with showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
over much of eastern Washington. Flooding once again may be an
issue with this very wet storm. Snow levels will remain high
enough to not pose a significant threat to any passes or higher
elevation routes. High pressure will then build in after today for
drier and mild conditions. Following this dry period will be an
increased threat of valley rain and mountain snow beginning
Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
2nd update this morning to cool todays forecast max temperatures a
few degrees based primarily on the expectation of cooling produced
by the convection addressed in the earlier update. Additionally
the mention of non accumulating snow over most locations mid-slope
down to valleys is utilized to address the soft hail or collapsed
snowflakes produced by the convection. Discussion concerning
earlier update involving increased pops and QPF remains below in
the 2nd paragraph.
Increased pops with a morning update primarily based on how the
past two to three HRRR model runs have been depicting a mesoscale
low circulation centered in Eastern Washington this morning, which
is behind the cloud shield associated with a larger low pressure
system, is expected to act as a lifting trigger. It will utilized
the cold pool instability over the area today and into this early
evening and promote continued showers and possibly some
thunderstorms during the early parts of the day. Storm motion of
any afternoon/early evening thunderstorms that form should take
them to the southeast at about 25-35 mph. The type of
thunderstorms that may occur are the weak, low topped, single or
multicell type, that could produce heavy rain and small soft hail
but the gusty wind due to the quick storm motion would be the
bigger nuisance.
/Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A wet cold front has passed through a good portion of the
aviation area and behind it is a smaller low pressure system that
utilizing the unstable and moist atmosphere behind it to keep
convective showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms going through a
good part of the day and early evening...precipitation in the form
of rain and non accumulating snow and/or soft hail may occur near
more intense convection and produce IFR ceilings at times. This
activity will translate to the south and east and exit majority of
the aviation area near 2Z Tuesday which will then allow for
improvement with increasing ceilings and decreased cloud cover and
wind with VFR conditions more prevalent. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 48 30 46 27 51 32 / 100 20 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 47 29 45 26 51 29 / 100 20 0 0 0 0
Pullman 48 32 47 30 53 33 / 100 40 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 52 35 53 33 59 36 / 100 50 0 0 0 0
Colville 51 29 54 26 54 28 / 100 20 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 47 28 44 25 47 27 / 100 20 0 0 0 10
Kellogg 44 30 46 29 50 31 / 100 40 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 58 32 53 30 55 32 / 100 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 55 32 52 32 54 34 / 100 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 55 28 50 28 52 30 / 70 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$