Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/09/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
917 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS...HOWEVER WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY...THEN
AND AGAIN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH AFTERNOON READINGS ON THE DESERTS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM MONTANA TO NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH WINSLOW...PRESCOTT AND LAKE HAVASU AS OF 16Z. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT...BUT
THERE IS SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. NAM AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRESENT
SITUATION AND BOTH SHOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL TO THE
NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX AFTER 18Z. COULD EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT.
MLCAPES ARE ONLY AROUND 100 J/KG...HARDLY IMPRESSIVE. MAKING SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO HIGHLIGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...PERHAPS EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS GLOBE.
BUT AGAIN...PRECIP AMOUNTS WOULD BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND ONLY LOOKING
AT 10-15 POPS AT WORST. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING AND ALL MENTION OF
PRECIP WAS DROPPED AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AND SHOULD TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND 80 IN
PHOENIX AND IN THE MID 80S AROUND YUMA/EL CENTRO.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN
EASTERN ZONE 24 BORDERING THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS FORECAST FOR THIS AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WARMER...WITH LIGHTER WIND.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH AZ TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY A COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHTER WIND.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD FEW TO
SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY. TYPICAL S-SE MORNING WINDS WILL TRANSITION
TO THE WEST BY MIDDAY WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 TO 12 KTS AT THEIR
STRONGEST. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED GUSTS IN THE 15-20KT RANGE...BUT
FEEL THESE WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE SO LEFT THEM OUT OF THE 12Z
TAFS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL GENERATE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY MID-MORNING. GUSTY N-NW SUSTAINED IN THE 15
TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR KBLH...WITH SLIGHTLY
LIGHTER WINDS FOR KIPL WITH SUSTAINED VALUES IN THE 10 TO 15KT
RANGE. SAVE FOR SOME PATCHES OF THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS...SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE AND ACROSS AREA RIDGETOPS...LEADING TO LLWS
CONDITIONS IF THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE 12Z
TAFS AT THIS TIME AS THE POTENTIAL IS WELL OVER 12 HOURS OUT AND
SOME FORECAST MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT WINDS AT
KBLH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN INTO SUNDAY...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT
THAT THEY WERE OBSERVED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE STORM TRACK WILL
INTRUDE BACK INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA AND THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AT TIMES...ENHANCING EASTERLY WINDS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL UPSLOPE AND
DRAINAGE PATTERNS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY 12 MPH OR LESS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL DRY INTO THE TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
350 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
SURFACE OBS INDICATING THE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER.
RADAR INDICATING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH THE AREA OF
HEAVIER SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. SNOW CONTINUING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND HAS BEEN HEAVY AT
TIMES EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SOME LOCATIONS GETTING CLOSE
TO A FOOT OF SNOW. LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DECREASING TREND IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN
BAND OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. BUT UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL
EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
CONTINUED ASCENT ALTHOUGH THE MAIN ASCENT TO REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD KEEP SNOW ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT. FOOTHILL
AREAS TO BE HELPED BY UPSLOPE. SOME DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWEST WHICH IMPROVES MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHICS. WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTH PARK GOING FOR TONIGHT. ACROSS PLAINS...EXPECT SNOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. ADVISORY FOR ZONES 39..40 AND 41 STILL SEEMS ON TRACK FOR
TONIGHT. SO FAR...SNOW HAS NOT AFFECTED TRAVEL OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS
LOWER VISIBILITY. BUT AS TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE
SNOW STICK TO THE ROADWAYS WHICH WOULD CREATE A SLOW COMMUTE. SNOW
AMOUNTS MAY END UP LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOW TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ON SATURDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH PARK DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT EXISTING SNOW COVER WILL LIMIT WARMUP.
.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ZONAL ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMUM IS PROGGED OVER COLORADO.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES SOUTH SETTLING ON COLORADO SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE
DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN NEUTRAL FORCING IS PROGGED WELL INTO MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...UPWARD ENERGY MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY...THEN SOME OF THE MODELS BRING IN
UPSLOPE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOW THE FRONT IN
HERE ON TUESDAY. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS PRETTY SPARSE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODELS HAVE INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. ON MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE INCREASES AND
DEEPENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS
A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP POPS OUT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN BRING SOME IN MONDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY`S HIGHS ARE 7-13 C
WARMER THAN SATURDAY`S. MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-3 C WARMER THAN
SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS
HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT ON THE ECMWF...THE GFS IS SLOWER AND KEEPS IT AROUND WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE
DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING. MORE UPPER TROUGHING IS POSSIBLE FOR
FRIDAY BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS AREA WITH IFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS. THE LIGHT SNOW
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHEAST
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE EVENING...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY 06Z. THE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 06Z
AND COME TO AND END AROUND 09Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY 10Z ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET
AGL FOR A SHORT TIME. CEILINGS TO THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING...BECOMING UNLIMITED BY 17Z. MFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ037-041.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ039-040.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ035-036.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ031.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
305 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
AN UPR TROF WL CONTINUE MOVING ACRS THE STATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SAT...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SOUTHWEST CO THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH PCPN SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WL
CONTINUE SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH ACRS THE AREA. THE MTS AND HYR
ELEVATIONS ALREADY HAVE SNOW...AND AS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COOL THIS
EVENING...ANY RAIN WL CHANGE OVR THE SNOW. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WL GENERALLY FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER AND
NR THE EASTERN MTNS AND AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 OVER THE SERN
PLAINS...WHICH IS WHERE THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MODEL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH...BUT PROBABLY HAS THE GENERAL IDEA OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WL LIKELY OCCUR. WL USE A BLEND OF THE 12Z AND 18Z
NAM...THE GFS AND RAP FOR SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT.
BY LATE SAT MORNING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...BUT SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED OT LINGER OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND MTNS. IN THE MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OVR SRN AREAS. IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MOST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH DECREASED
CLOUDINESS...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVR THE SW MTS AND THE SRN SANGRES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CUTOFF WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT THAT ONLY SILENT POPS WILL BE NEEDED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES REACHING +4C TO +6C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAV AND MEX MAXIMUMS ARE TOO WARM AND
WERE IGNORED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR WITH SNOW COVER OR WET
SOILS. GIVEN THE WARMER MARCH SUN AND THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE...BELIEVE
ADJUSTMENTS WOULD BE MINOR. AS THE STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY...SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT COULD MOVE INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH AS A COUPLE
DEGREES OF WARMING FROM SUNDAY. ONLY HAVE SILENT POPS ON MONDAY
FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE DRY.
.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NEXT STRONG TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION . AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES COLORADO...THERE COULD BE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVER THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. ENSEMBLES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN SPEED...LOCATION AND PRECIPITATION
TOTALS...AND THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.
DECIDED NOT TO ALTER GRIDS FROM CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE MUCH AND
ONLY HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM IN THE AFD. IN CURRENT
PACKAGE...INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED CATEGORY ON THE PLAINS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY. CURRENT MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SYSTEM WOULD BE WEAK.
MOST ENSEMBLES MEMBERS ARE DRY WITH A FEW MEMBERS SUGGESTING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GRIDS FOR FRIDAY HAVE SOME
ISOLATED POPS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHICH MATCHES THE MAIN
IDEA IN THE ENSEMBLES. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
SHOULD HAVE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AT KCOS AND
KPUB AS SNOW FALLS. THESE CONDITIONS WL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SAT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY MIDMORNING.
SOME SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT A KALS WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT CIGS AND VSBY TO BECOME VFR BY MIDMORNING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ078-087-
088.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ072>075-
079>082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ094-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061-063-066-068-076-077-083-084-086.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1053 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...THOUGH
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO HAVE HIT THEIR MAX...READINGS CURRENTLY IN
THE MIDDLE 30S ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FURTHER EAST. THESE READINGS AFFECTING
WHETHER THERE IS RAIN OR SNOW OR EVEN A MIXTURE. SNOW HAD BEEN
FALLING IN THE BOULDER AREA AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF DENVER AS
WELL AS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN LARIMER AND WELD COUNTIES FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING...NOW BEGINNING TO MIX WITH SOME RAIN. RAIN OR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW REPORTED ELSEWHERE. ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THE
PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SNOW HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. AIRMASS IS RATHER UNSTABLE
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH
THE EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HILITES AND SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH PARK. STILL A RATHER TRICKY
FORECAST FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY FALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO STILL EXPECTING A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW MOST
LOCATIONS WITH MORE SNOW THAN RAIN CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS AND
ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. LATEST RAP AND NAM
GENERATE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR BY THIS
EVENING. SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.
BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BY THIS EVENING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP. CURRENT TIMING OF ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 39..40
AND 41 LOOK OKAY...WITH ZONE 41 BEGINNING AT NOON.
.AVIATION...IFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WHICH SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AT KBJC AND KAPA. SURFACES FAIRLY
WARM...SO MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD INITIALLY MELT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD DROP A QUICK INCH OF
SLUSHY SNOW ON THE RUNWAYS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW TO DECREASE AFTER
06Z...COMING TO AN END AROUND 10Z WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH MAIN CONCERN SNOW POTENTIAL OVER MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. THE STORM IS A BIT DEEPER AND STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE EVOLVING PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOW TO EVOLVE
BUT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME HEAVIER SNOWFALL NOW DEVELOPING
OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THIS HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. IN THE
MEANTIME...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM MONTANA. WEAK PRESSURE
RISES MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO BUT NOT A HUGE COLD FRONT TO
REALLY LOWER TEMPERATURES QUICKLY. MAIN ISSUE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL BE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S THIS MORNING. EXPECT MUCH OF THIS PRECIP TO BE RAIN
THIS AM AND THEN BECOME A MORE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE COMPLICATED TOWARDS THE FRONT RANGE AS EXPECT HEAVIER SHOWERS
MAY TURN PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AT LEAST FOR A SHORT TERM THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON THE LIGHTNING STRIKES
REPORTED ACROSS UTAH OVERNIGHT.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE BULLISH WITH THE QPF AND
SNOWFALL WITH QPF ON THE PLAINS FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH AND
UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER HIGHER EAST SLOPES. THIS MAY
RESULT IN UPWARDS OF A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER
FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. COULD SEE 2-3" OF SNOW PER HOUR
WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE QG
ASCENT. EVEN THE DRY NAM MODEL FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS NOW THE MOST
EXCITED ABOUT HEAVY SNOWFALL. MOST OF THE MODELS NOW HAVE
CONSISTENCY ABOUT SIGNIFICANT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AS FOR THE HILITES HAVE UPGRADED OR ADDED THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS
AND ZONES 33..34 TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
ADDED ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 37..41. HAVE ALSO ADDED THE BOULDER AND
DENVER AREA INTO AN ADVISORY FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AMOUNTS BE MORE MARGINAL BUT THE TIME OF HEAVIEST PRECIP MAY
COINCIDE WITH THE LATE DAY RUSH HOUR AND COULD PRESENT A PROBLEM.
FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR LOOKS LIKE 2-6"...HEAVIEST NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...AWAY FOR THE
BEST UPWARDS FORCING. SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT WITH GRADUALY CLEARING.
LONG TERM...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY STILL EXIST OVER THE FOOTHILLS
AND PALMER DIVIDE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING AND
DOWNWARD QG MOTION PUSHES IT SOUTH. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW SUN
TO SHINE...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT CLIMB TOO MUCH UNDER
THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. EXPECT READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S OVER THE PLAINS AND THE 30S TO 40S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE HIGH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN STATE
BORDER. THIS WILL MODERATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT NIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE...GOOD WARM ADVECTION AND
LEESIDE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DURING THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. MAX
TEMPERATURES READINGS INTO THE 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DAY. MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST...BUT ARE
IMPROVING. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED ITS OUTLYING FAST PROGRESSION
DURING THE LATEST MODEL CYCLE AND MATCHES BETTER WITH THE GEM. THE
GFS REMAINS THE SLOWER SOLUTION...HOWEVER HAS GOOD AGREEMENT RUN
TO RUN WITH ITSELF. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS TO LIKELY
AND THE PLAINS TO CHANCE. THIS STORM SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO
TODAY`S SYSTEM...BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS THE SYSTEM GETS
CLOSER IN TIME AND SPACE...WILL ASSESS THE NEED FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BRING BACK WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. COLDER AIR WILL
SLOWLY FILTER IN AS ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO COOL AND SATURATES.
EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH POTENTIAL
HEAVIER SHOWERS...COULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OR FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ALL SNOW AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. SNOWFALL
EXPECTED BY LATER TONIGHT TO BE IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE...HIGHEST
AT BJC/APA AND LOWER AMOUNTS NEAR KDEN. WITH WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ANY LIGHTER SNOW WILL LIKELY JUST MELT. HOWEVER
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD DROP A QUICK INCH OF SLUSHY SNOW ON
RUNWAYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING OF PRECIP TYPES
AND CHANGEOVER TO SNOWFALL.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ037-041.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ039-040.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ035-036.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ031.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1050 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND THEN RAPIDLY OUT TO
SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PASS THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AND PASS OVER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY HI-LVL CLOUDS COVER THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING BUT PRECIP
HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK ITS WAY NWD THRU DELMARVA. USED THE SREF
3-HRLY POPS TO UPDATE THE GRIDS WHICH RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS OVERALL WITH LIKELY CONFINED TO SRN DE AND EXTREME SE NJ FOR
LATER THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE. OTRW...FCST WINDS AND TEMPS FOR
TODAY LOOK REASONABLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NE TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NEAR THE NC COAST NEWD WELL OUT TO SEA. ITS
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL ACRS THE REGION, BUT IT WILL BRING CLOUDS
AND SOME RAIN, MAINLY TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING.
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS, HAVE REMOVED PRECIP ALL PRECIP
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE NEAREST PRECIP IS IN CNTRL VA
AND JUST APPROACHING SRN MD, WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP STILL
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. THE LATEST HRRR DOESN`T REALLY GET THE
PRECIP GOING IN OUR AREA UNTIL 15-16Z. IT OFTEN TENDS TO BE ON THE
SLOW SIDE, BUT STILL THAT IS A FEW HOURS AWAY. WITH THE LATER
ONSET TIME AND MOST TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ON THE LWR DELMARVA
AND ERN SHORE COUPLED WITH SUNRISE, ANY THREAT OF FREEZING OR
FROZEN PRECIP IS BASICALLY OVER.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TODAY TO THE MID 30S N AND W AND FROM
AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS NEWD TREK TONIGHT. ANY
IMPACTS SHOULD BE EARLY, WITH IMPROVEMENTS LATER ON TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD GENLY BE
IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MAINLY QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE QUICKLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST AND OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN ENDING ANY LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH THEN
WILL BE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, AMPLE SUN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE DAY, BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE LATE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING INTO THE
REGION. OVERALL, THIS WILL MEAN A RATHER PLEASANT AND MILD DAY IS IN
STORE, WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH. WE
WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MET/MAV BLEND FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS TO
THE LOWER 50S THROUGH SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND WE KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. SOME CLEARING
IS EXPECTED THEN THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY, BUT A BRISK NORTHWEST
WIND WILL HELP TO FILTER IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR TO THE REGION,
WITH BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S
NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING TO OUR
SOUTH WITH SOME SURFACE RIDGING INTO OUR AREA, ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER INTO MONDAY, WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
WE GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES AND FACTORED IN A LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND, WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER
50S SOUTH. FROM HERE, THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH, ALLOWING FOR A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PASS OVER THE REGION. TIMING OF ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT WE WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY DAYTIME FOR OUR NORTHWEST ZONES LEADING TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OF EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST, PERHAPS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OR BACK ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER
GREATLY BETWEEN LOCATION, TRACK, AND STRENGTH OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE, THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR THIS LOW TO THEN TRACK TO
THE COAST GOING INTO THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK THEN EITHER
OUT TO SEA OR ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST EARLY THURSDAY AND WITH A
POTENTIAL SHARPENING MID/UPPER TROUGH, MORE COLD AIR MAY BE BROUGHT
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
THE FCST AREA THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE, AND WE
WILL REFINE THE DETAILS AS FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
SO FAR THIS MORNING WE ARE MAINTAINING VFR CONDS AT ALL OUR TAF
SITES EXCEPT ACY WHICH HAS AN MVFR CIG. THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS AND
CIGS 020-025 LURKING AROUND PARTS OF NJ BUT UNFORTUNATELY THEY ARE
OBSCURRED BY DENSE HI CLOUDS SO THE COVERAGE TRENDS ARE DFCLT TO
DISCERN. PHL HAS BEEN CARRYING FEW/SCT AROUND 020 AND GUIDANCE
INDCS MVFR CIGS MOVG IN THIS AFTN...SO THE LATEST PHL TAF STILL HAS
THE LOW CLOUDS MOVG IN. BUT THIS SEEMS LIKE A BORDERLINE SITN SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPCIALLY HIGH.
CONDS RANGED FROM VFR TO MVFR THIS AM, AND A GENL DOWNWARD TREND IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MRNG. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH SRN AND ERN TAFS PSBLY IFR. THIS IS DUE TO CLOUDS
ASSOCD WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES NR THE NC CST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
BY WELL TO OUR E BUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN WILL SKIRT THE
AREA THOUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF GREAT
EGG INLET. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT BUOY 44009 FROM THE RAP/NAM/GFS ALL
INDICATE GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HOURS.
THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO TIGHTEN UP AS THE SFC LOW NOW
EAST OF KILM INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NEWD THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NE AND LOW PRES NR THE NC CST WILL
MOVE BY WELL OFF THE JERSEY SHORE BY SAT MRNG. HIGH PRES WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE W. THE CURRENT SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR BOTH
WIND AND SEAS THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SCA
LEVELS AS A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER OUT TO SEA, ELEVATED SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, MOSTLY IN THE
5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE,
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA THROUGH DELAWARE BAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA
LEVELS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ453>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...AMC/KLINE/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND THEN RAPIDLY OUT TO
SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PASS THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AND PASS OVER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NE TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NEAR THE NC COAST NEWD WELL OUT TO SEA. ITS
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL ACRS THE REGION, BUT IT WILL BRING CLOUDS
AND SOME RAIN, MAINLY TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING.
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS, HAVE REMOVED PRECIP ALL PRECIP
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE NEAREST PRECIP IS IN CNTRL VA
AND JUST APPROACHING SRN MD, WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP STILL
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. THE LATEST HRRR DOESN`T REALLY GET THE
PRECIP GOING IN OUR AREA UNTIL 15-16Z. IT OFTEN TENDS TO BE ON THE
SLOW SIDE, BUT STILL THAT IS A FEW HOURS AWAY. WITH THE LATER
ONSET TIME AND MOST TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ON THE LWR DELMARVA
AND ERN SHORE COUPLED WITH SUNRISE, ANY THREAT OF FREEZING OR
FROZEN PRECIP IS BASICALLY OVER.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TODAY TO THE MID 30S N AND W AND FROM
AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS NEWD TREK TONIGHT. ANY
IMPACTS SHOULD BE EARLY, WITH IMPROVEMENTS LATER ON TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD GENLY BE
IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MAINLY QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE QUICKLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST AND OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN ENDING ANY LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH THEN
WILL BE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, AMPLE SUN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE DAY, BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE LATE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING INTO THE
REGION. OVERALL, THIS WILL MEAN A RATHER PLEASANT AND MILD DAY IS IN
STORE, WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH. WE
WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MET/MAV BLEND FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS TO
THE LOWER 50S THROUGH SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND WE KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. SOME CLEARING
IS EXPECTED THEN THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY, BUT A BRISK NORTHWEST
WIND WILL HELP TO FILTER IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR TO THE REGION,
WITH BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S
NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING TO OUR
SOUTH WITH SOME SURFACE RIDGING INTO OUR AREA, ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER INTO MONDAY, WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
WE GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES AND FACTORED IN A LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND, WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER
50S SOUTH. FROM HERE, THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH, ALLOWING FOR A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PASS OVER THE REGION. TIMING OF ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT WE WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY DAYTIME FOR OUR NORTHWEST ZONES LEADING TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OF EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST, PERHAPS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OR BACK ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER
GREATLY BETWEEN LOCATION, TRACK, AND STRENGTH OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE, THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR THIS LOW TO THEN TRACK TO
THE COAST GOING INTO THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK THEN EITHER
OUT TO SEA OR ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST EARLY THURSDAY AND WITH A
POTENTIAL SHARPENING MID/UPPER TROUGH, MORE COLD AIR MAY BE BROUGHT
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
THE FCST AREA THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE, AND WE
WILL REFINE THE DETAILS AS FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONDS RANGED FROM VFR TO MVFR THIS AM, AND A GENL DOWNWARD TREND IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MRNG. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH SRN AND ERN TAFS PSBLY IFR. THIS IS DUE TO CLOUDS
ASSOCD WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES NR THE NC CST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
BY WELL TO OUR E BUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN WILL SKIRT THE
AREA THOUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NE AND LOW PRES NR THE NC CST WILL
MOVE BY WELL OFF THE JERSEY SHORE BY SAT MRNG. HIGH PRES WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE W. THE CURRENT SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR BOTH
WIND AND SEAS THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SCA
LEVELS AS A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER OUT TO SEA, ELEVATED SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, MOSTLY IN THE
5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE,
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA THROUGH DELAWARE BAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA
LEVELS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
900 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
.UPDATE (TONIGHT)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A BENIGN UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS/GULF OF MEXICO CONSISTING
OF MAINLY ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGED FLOW. DEEP AND ENERGETIC
TROUGHING IS SEEN UPSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN
MEXICO...HOWEVER THIS ENERGY WILL NOT BOTHER US FOR SEVERAL DAYS AT
LEAST...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODIC BATCHES OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW.
00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN
THROUGH THE TROP WITH A PW AROUND 0.6". THE LACK OF COLUMN MOISTURE
AND VIRTUALLY NO SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR LIFT IS LEAVING UP WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AND THIS WILL HOLD AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.
A COOL NIGHT UPCOMING...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS WAS SEEN INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. MOST SPOTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WHILE MUCH OF THE
NATURE COAST SEES 40S BY THE TIME THE SUN RISES SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER FAIR AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO MODERATE. MORE ON SUNDAY IS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
SECTION BELOW. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT!
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORID PENINSULA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
AND WITH A STRONG WEST-EAST ORIENTED UPPER JET RUNNING ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...WOULD EXPECTED SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
HIGH CLOUD TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL SHOW INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO BE THE RULE. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AND IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST...AND IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
09/00Z-10/00Z: VFR. LIMITED LATE NIGHT BR WILL LIKELY IMPACT
LAL...PGD...FMY...AND RSW. OTHERWISE SKC GIVES WAY TO SOME CUMULUS
LATE DAY SUN. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...EASTERLY
SUN...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS.
STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING WILL FORCE SEA-BREEZES EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...SO MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS NEAR THE COAST TO
TURN ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO EXERCISE CAUTION OR
ADVISORY LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 54 75 59 76 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 55 81 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 53 79 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 53 75 58 76 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 43 77 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 56 76 60 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JELSEMA
AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1104 AM EST Fri Mar 7 2014
.Near Term [Rest of Today]...
Rain has essentially ended across the area per recent radar mosaic,
so we will carry a dry forecast for the rest of the day. Otherwise,
the stratus layer in place across the area has remained in tact over
the entire area through 16z. There was some evidence on visible
satellite that it may begin scattering out in southeast Alabama
soon. However, the latest runs of the HRRR show low clouds hanging
in over the eastern and southeastern parts of the area through
sunset, which may keep highs in the 40s to around 50 degrees today
across southwest Georgia and into the Florida Big Bend.
Therefore, we reduced high temperatures in those areas while
allowing for warmer highs in the upper 50s further west where
clouds are expected to scatter out sooner.
&&
.Prev Discussion [629 AM EST]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
High pressure will begin to build over the tonight and remain in
place through Saturday. The incoming airmass, while cold, isn`t
especially chilly. As a result, expect temperatures overnight to
drop into the mid to upper 30s.
Saturday will begin a warming trend with mostly sunny skies and
temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s. Increasing cloud
cover late in the day and into the overnight hours Saturday night
will keep temperatures a little warmer, with lows only in the mid
to upper 40s.
Sunday, the models diverge a little with the NAM being more
aggressive in returning rain chances to the region. While the
GFS/NAM/Euro all show a northern stream disturbance moving through
the Southern Appalachians, it is only the NAM that tries to phase
in some southern stream energy. Given that the GFS and Euro are in
good agreement that only a modest increase in cloud cover is
likely for Sunday afternoon, have kept rain chances out of the
forecast. Even with increasing cloud cover, still expect
temperatures to make it into the mid 70s away from the coast.
.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
We will remain in a fairly active pattern for the next 7 days, with
normal temperatures and fairly low rain chances for Sunday into
early next week. However, another strong system will be looming as
we get into the mid week with rain chances once again increasing
by Wednesday. Thursday into Friday could see a return to below
normal temperatures behind the next strong cold front.
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] While the rain has moved away from all area
terminals this morning, IFR vsby and cigs will be slow to lift.
Expect IFR condtions to continue through midday before clouds lift
during the afternoon. VFR conditions return by this evening to all
terminals.
.Marine...
Winds will gradually diminish this afternoon as a low pressure
area moves up the Eastern Seaboard. High pressure will then build
over the marine area and keep conditions tranquil into next week.
.Fire Weather...
Humidity values will remain well above critical levels through the
weekend.
.Hydrology...
Rainfall overnight is falling in the lower portion of the river
basins, and delivering 0.5 to 0.75 inches of rain from Panama City
eastward to the Suwannee River. Expect modest rises to continue on
area rivers throughout the weekend. Outside of the Apalachicola
River, minor flood levels should not be met, however, several
points will likely reach action stage by Sunday if not sooner.
Increased releases from Woodruff will push the Apalachicola River
at Blountstown very close to minor flood stage by Saturday
afternoon.
The next substantive system on Tuesday will have the potential to
deliver up to an inch of rain across region, which could lead to
some minor flooding issues on area rivers, particularly in the
Florida Panhandle.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 52 37 72 44 75 / 10 0 0 0 10
Panama City 54 44 68 51 70 / 10 0 0 10 10
Dothan 57 39 72 49 74 / 10 0 0 10 10
Albany 52 37 72 46 74 / 20 0 0 10 10
Valdosta 49 36 72 44 75 / 20 10 0 0 10
Cross City 50 36 72 45 75 / 10 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 52 43 66 51 69 / 10 0 0 0 10
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...EVANS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
610 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WARP AROUND THE
LOW AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 00Z SPC WRF INDICATES RAIN
DURING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE 07Z HRRR ALSO SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN
COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF TODAY. THIS RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA. CLOUDINESS AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.
SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND THIS SHOULD
REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS SUPPORT
ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AND THIS APPEARS CORRECT SINCE WARMER AIR
FROM THE ATLANTIC HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING LOW SHOULD END EARLY TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT RAIN...LIGHT WIND...AND DIURNAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG LATE. WE USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY.
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE WITH HIGHS NEAR 70.
THE DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NAM SHOWS MORE OF A MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. WE KEPT THE
FORECAST CONSISTENT AND KEPT THE POP LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GREATER SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT. EXPECT
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE TAF LOCATIONS. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CIG IMPROVEMENT
BEFORE EARLY AFTERNOON. N WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE. EXPECT MAINLY SCTD CLOUDS BY
00Z SATURDAY. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR FOG AT
AGS AND OGB AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
533 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WARP AROUND THE
LOW AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 00Z SPC WRF INDICATES RAIN
DURING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE 07Z HRRR ALSO SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN
COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF TODAY. THIS RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA. CLOUDINESS AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.
SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND THIS SHOULD
REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS SUPPORT
ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AND THIS APPEARS CORRECT SINCE WARMER AIR
FROM THE ATLANTIC HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING LOW SHOULD END EARLY TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT RAIN...LIGHT WIND...AND DIURNAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG LATE. WE USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY.
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE WITH HIGHS NEAR 70.
THE DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NAM SHOWS MORE OF A MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. WE KEPT THE
FORECAST CONSISTENT AND KEPT THE POP LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GREATER SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT. EXPECT
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE TAF LOCATIONS. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CIG IMPROVEMENT
BEFORE EARLY AFTERNOON. N-NE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE. EXPECT MAINLY SCTD CLOUDS BY
00Z SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
501 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WARP AROUND THE
LOW AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 00Z SPC WRF INDICATES RAIN
DURING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE 07Z HRRR ALSO SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN
COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF TODAY. THIS RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA. CLOUDINESS AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.
SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND THIS SHOULD
REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS SUPPORT
ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AND THIS APPEARS CORRECT SINCE WARMER AIR
FROM THE ATLANTIC HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING LOW SHOULD END EARLY TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT RAIN...LIGHT WIND...AND DIURNAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG LATE. WE USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY.
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE WITH HIGHS NEAR 70.
THE DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NAM SHOWS MORE OF A MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. WE KEPT THE
FORECAST CONSISTENT AND KEPT THE POP LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GREATER SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT. EXPECT
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS ARE AFFECTING THE
TAF LOCATIONS. AS RAIN CONTINUES...AND LOW LEVEL AIR BECOMES MORE
SATURATED...CIGS HAVE FALLEN TO IFR LEVELS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT BEFORE EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NE WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED BY RAINFALL.
RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR JUST SCTD
CLOUDS BY 00Z SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
319 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WARP AROUND THE
LOW AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 00Z SPC WRF INDICATES RAIN
DURING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE 05Z HRRR ALSO SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN
COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF TODAY. THIS RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA. CLOUDINESS AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.
SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND THIS SHOULD
REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS SUPPORT
ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AND THIS APPEARS CORRECT SINCE WARMER AIR
FROM THE ATLANTIC HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED BETWEEN THE LINGERING WEDGE
RIDGE AND COASTAL LOW. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD.
BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE JUST BELOW THE LAKE WIND CRITERIA LATER THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING LOW SHOULD END EARLY TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT RAIN...LIGHT WIND...AND DIURNAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG LATE. WE USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY.
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE WITH HIGHS NEAR 70.
THE DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NAM SHOWS MORE OF A MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. WE KEPT THE
FORECAST CONSISTENT AND KEPT THE POP LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GREATER SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT. EXPECT
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS ARE AFFECTING THE
TAF LOCATIONS. AS RAIN CONTINUES...AND LOW LEVEL AIR BECOMES MORE
SATURATED...CIGS HAVE FALLEN TO IFR LEVELS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT BEFORE EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NE WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED BY RAINFALL.
RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR JUST SCTD
CLOUDS BY 00Z SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
328 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
328 AM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK...POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING LATER THIS MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY BECOME BKN/OVC BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS MAY
HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL TAKE PLACE WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS
NORTHERN MO/SOUTHWESTERN IA ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 30S. THUS HAVE
CONTINUED WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/
MID 40S...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THEN
POSSIBLE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 FAR SOUTH WHERE SNOWPACK HAS MELTED.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...
MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER A QUICK DROP
WITH SUNSET...TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 30S UNTIL
FROPA. ONCE WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE...COLDER AIR OVER THE ICE PACK
COULD USHER IN SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR THAN MIGHT OTHERWISE BE
EXPECTED. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PRECIP TYPE QUICKLY SWITCHING
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP TYPE
MIXES WITH SOME SLEET OR SURFACE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING BEFORE
PRECIP SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW. HAVE MAINTAINED JUST RAIN TO SNOW IN
THE FORECAST BUT LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE MIX.
GEM/ECMWF/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BAND OF LIGHT QPF
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF/TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THIS FALLING AS SNOW. THUS
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO OR AROUND AN INCH LOOK ON TRACK THOUGH
CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC AMOUNTS IS A BIT LOWER DUE TO SURFACE TEMPS
AND SNOW/WATER RATIOS. SNOW COULD BE RATHER WET AS IT BEGINS WITH
SOME INITIAL MELTING.
THIS PRECIP SHIFTS SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE HELD TEMPS CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WARMING THEM A FEW DEGREES. BUT IF THE HIGH
SPEEDS UP AND FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY FASTER...WARMER AIR ALOFT
MAY KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AND THIS
TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TOWARD WARMER MAV NUMBERS AND
THIS MAY END UP STILL BEING TOO COOL...CURRENTLY MID/UPPER 30S
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.
GEM/ECMWF ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS INTO THE
+10C TO +12C RANGE FOR MONDAY AND MADE NO CHANGES TO GOING HIGHS
OF MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH AS THESE APPEAR ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND ITS A
BIT EARLY FOR SPECIFIC TIMING BUT TEMPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
STAY MILD AND THERE COULD BE QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE CWA OR
NEARBY ON TUESDAY. POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
WILL BE BACK IN THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. DURING THIS
SAME TIME PERIOD...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS AND SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE WEDNESDAY
TIME PERIOD. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH A PERIOD OF
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH THE COLD FRONT...SIMILAR TO TONIGHTS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* SW WINDS OVER 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
* CHC FOR A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIP LATE THIS EVE INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT
BEFORE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW TOWARDS
DAYBREAK SAT.
* WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SAT.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN CONTROL MUCH OF
THU WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. THIS
WILL ENABLE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE FRIDAY WITH SOME SPORADIC
GUSTINESS OVER 15 KT POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL EASE ITS WAY
ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN ON FRI EVE. THIS FRONT HAS
MORE ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS...THAT IS THE FORCING FOR PRECIP IS
LOCATED BEHIND THE ACTUAL SURFACE WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO COOL IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND IF PRECIP CAN HAPPEN EARLY
ENOUGH IT COULD BE RAIN OR ICE PELLETS BUT WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT.
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH COOLING SHOULD OCCUR FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BE SNOW
WHEN THE STRONGER FORCING MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE PRESENTLY FAVORED TO BE
UP TO AN INCH AT MOST.
IN ADDITION...WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST...THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE MORE FAVORED TO TURN NORTH NORTHEAST OR EVEN
NORTHEAST AT CHICAGOLAND AIRPORTS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE LAKE
MICHIGAN INFLUENCE. WITH THIS...SPEEDS ARE ALSO FAVORED TO COME UP
OVER 10 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING SAT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH TODAY THEN MEDIUM AFTER.
* MEDIUM IN SNOW OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT WHILE LOW ON LOWEST
VISIBILITY AND CIG DURING THE SNOW. MEDIUM ON START TIME.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...CHANCE SNOW...MAINLY IN THE MORNING...PERIODS OF MVFR
TO IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. VFR/WX NIL OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN DAYTIME. CHANCE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. IFR
CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.
MTF/KJB
&&
.MARINE...
220 AM CST
THE PATTERN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO MORE ACTIVE
AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
NEXT WEEK. BY TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL ADVANCE TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND BRING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD. WHILE THE LOW IS NOT MOVING THAT QUICKLY...THE FRONT
SHOULD PROGRESS NICELY DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT AS ANAFRONTS OFTEN
CAN THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS
STATES SATURDAY BUT ITS CENTER WILL EVOLVE MORE SOUTH THAN EAST
AS AN ACTIVE PACIFIC JET ADVANCES EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. THIS WILL STEER TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS QUICKLY EASTWARD
WITH EACH FAVORED TO PASS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...ONE SUNDAY
AND THE OTHER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT. WITH EACH WILL COME
WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH SO MUCH OF THE LAKE BEING ICE
COVERED...AND SNOW ON TOP OF THAT ICE...A STOUT INVERSION IS
FAVORED. SO TO WHAT DEGREE GUSTS CAN REACH THE SURFACE IS
CHALLENGING. AT THIS POINT THE FIRST SYSTEM WOULD BE MORE FAVORED
TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT GUSTS BELOW GALES
IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS COULD END UP
BEING CLOSE TO AT LEAST TEMPORARY GALES.
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE FROM THURSDAY REVEALED THE LAKE IS MAINLY
ICE COVERED WITH THE NATIONAL ICE CENTER INDICATING THAT IS THE
CASE OVER 90 PERCENT OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO WAVE FORECASTS ARE ONLY
FOR A SMALL PART OF THE OPEN WATER AND CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT WAVES
IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE FORECAST.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
304 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 304 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday
Surface ridge axis lingering over the CWA early this morning.
Under clear skies and light winds radiational cooling has dropped
temps near dewpoints in low/mid 20s and allowed light fog in a 2-5
mile range to form. A peek out the front window shows this has
deposited a thick layer of frost on cars in the parking lot.
Upstream, a cold front and unorganized low pressure complex
stretched from northern MN back into central NEB.
As this front shifts SE towards NW IL by this evening, warm
advection ahead of it will bring the warmest readings of the week
with widespread upper 40s/lower 50s highs, and even some mid 50s
in the far south and southwest. Exception will be where thicker
snowpack resides over the far northern CWA where highs will be
limited to the mid 40s. Precip chances increase especially after
midnight over the NW, where a zone of post-frontal frontogenetic
forcing and lift in the entrance region of a 90 kt jet over the
Great Lakes, initially produces a mix until evaporative cooling
and low level cold advection transitions to a clean snow
changeover after 09Z. A couple models show a corridor of
maximized lift over the far NW CWA where 0.10-0.15 QPF is
possible, which would translate to around an inch of wet snow
mainly north of PIA. As boundary layer temps rise through the
morning under increased mid level cold advection, a rain/snow mix
looks likely for the central CWA to near I-72, with rain to the
south. Where snow does fall surface temperatures above freezing
will prevent any accumulation. QPF for these areas looks to be
under a tenth of an inch. Any remaining precip quickly exits SE IL
by early evening, as incoming surface ridge from the northwest
dries things out.
This ridge sinks south of the region on Sunday, with return
flow/warm advection rebounding readings back up closer to normal.
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday
By late in the weekend and early next week a strong branch of the
northern jet along the Canadian border temporarily flattens the
mid level flow over the central US allowing Pacific air to bathe
the region on Monday. Southwest flow on the warm side of a clipper
passing through the northern Great Lakes will draw the Plains
thermal ridge up into the area, with 850 mb temps getting up to
around +10C for the first time in quite a while. This should yield
widespread upper 50s/lower 60s highs.
A cold front trailing south from the above mentioned clipper
shifts into the region on Tuesday, while more significant energy
drops into a developing central Rockies trough. As expected at
this range models show a large spread in location/strength of
possible phasing of northern and southern streams for a
potentially significant precip event in the central US for
midweek. ECMWF continues to be most aggressive in phasing and
tapping cold air off Arctic high north of Lake Superior for a
potential late winter storm over parts of the Midwest or Ohio
Valley. Of note, 00Z GFS/GEM have backed off on this possibility
which leads to higher uncertainty for this portion of the forecast.
Consensus chance pops for rain/snow seem prudent at this point.
Beyond this potential system, the upper air pattern reverts to a
familiar ridge/west trough/east configuration which places the
area back into a cooler northwest flow regime through Thursday.
This may be short-lived though as some signs of zonal flow
becoming established to our west by the end of next week.
25
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1152 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
Southerly flow is still expected to develop across the central
Illinois terminals late tonight into early Friday. However, winds
have mostly died off across the area right now. The light winds
have combined with mostly clear skies and low temp/dew point
spreads to produce patchy fog. This may continue to be a problem
through the night, but confidence in how thick the fog will be
low. However, the latest HRRR model runs suggest patchy dense fog
is not out of the question. That being said, do not have enough
confidence to include the thicker fog at this time. Aside from the
fog, VFR conditions should prevail. A cold front is expected reach
KPIA, KBMI, and KSPI by the Friday evening, resulting in a wind
shift to the northwest and thicker VFR cigs.
Bak
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1153 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
238 PM CST
BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...DESPITE THE SFC RIDGE BEING CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE GRADIENT IS STILL LACKING OVER NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10-15KT
FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A CHANNEL OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS TRYING TO PUSH EAST INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...HOWEVER STEADY EROSION HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE FROM THE DRY
AIR LOCKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER UPSTREAM AN ELONGATED
TROUGH HAS PUSHED INTO THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. BETWEEN THE SFC
RIDGE AND TROUGH THE GRADIENT IS MUCH TIGHTER AND HAS PRODUCED GOOD
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING
INTO THE 20-30MPH RANGE.
AN INTERESTING FEATURE HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER CHICAGO. DUE TO
CONSIDERABLE ICE COVERAGE ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND WINDS FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST...DOWNTOWN CHICAGO HAS ACTUALLY HAD AN ICE BREEZE
AND HAS HELPED TO KEEP DOWNTOWN MUCH COOLER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MID/UPR 20S. WHILE FURTHER INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM
TO ARND 30 DEGREES.
SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FLOATING OVERHEAD.
TEMPS WILL RADIATE INTO THE LOW/MID TEENS.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE PROVIDING SOME INFLUENCE...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE DRIFTING EAST TOWARDS
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING...TEMPS WILL BE PUSHING WARMER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
LIKELY REACHING THE LOW 40S FOR NUMEROUS LOCATIONS. MANY OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS ARE PROGGING AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF 4 TO 6 DEG C
LIFTING OVERHEAD MIDDAY. ALL OF THIS IS SIGNALING TEMPS WARMING
ABOVE SEASONAL CONDS FOR A CHANGE...WITH SOME AREAS SOUTH OF LASALLE
TO KANKAKEE REACHING THE UPR 40S. UNFORTUNATELY THIS DOES NOT APPEAR
TO LAST VERY LONG...SO ENJOY THE WARMTH.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST FRIDAY EVENING...HOWEVER
EXPECT ENOUGH MID-LVL RIDGING TO MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND WITH
A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION...SO HAVE PUSHED BACK POPS UNTIL AFT 00Z.
COULD ACTUALLY SEE THIS BEING CLOSER TO 03Z SAT. FORCING DOES
INCREASE WITH LAPSE RATES STEEPENING BETWEEN 6-12Z SAT. WITH PRECIP
DEVELOPING...SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT THE ONSET PRECIP MAY FALL AS
LIQUID THEN QUICKLY WET BULB DOWN AND PUSH P-TYPE OVER TO ALL SNOW.
WITH THE INCREASE IN FORCING/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...A PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE AFT 6Z SAT AND COULD EASILY PRODUCE UP
TO 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF A LASALLE TO EVANSTON LINE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD UP SLIGHTLY LONGER AND DELAY THE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...SO SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY HOVER AROUND ONE HALF
INCH. TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO MID 20S.
ANOTHER SFC RIDGE IS POISED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA
SATURDAY MORNING AND HELP TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTN. IT DOES APPEAR CURRENTLY THAT THE
PUSH OF DRY AIR WILL BE A LITTLE SLUGGISH...SO CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER
THRU SAT AFTN. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK
SOMEWHAT...WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW 30S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SECONDARY MID-LVL TROUGH WILL BE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST/SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SAT NGT....HOWEVER EXPECT ENOUGH DRY AIR TO
LINGER FROM THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE THAT DRY AIR WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE SAT NGT THRU SUN. UNFORTUNATELY TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SAT NGT WITH CLOUDS THINNING. DRY
AIR WILL LINGER THRU SUN AS WELL...UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE P-CLOUDY
CONDS TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 30S. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT TEMPS COULD WARM FURTHER...POSSIBLY REACHING 40 DEG
SUN AFTN.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CASE OF GOOD NEWS AND
BAD NEWS. FIRST THE GOOD NEWS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL START OUT
FEATURING WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE ONE OF DOWNSLOPING MILD AIR OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN AN
ABOVE NORMAL H5 HEIGHT FIELD. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS IN ABOVE CLIMO 850 TEMPS ADVECTING IN
FROM THE WEST...POTENTIALLY +10C OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER AND 925
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW
COVER REMAINS GOING INTO THE DAY...THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE 50S/IF NOT WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE SOUTHERN CWA AND AT
AT LEAST 45-50 NORTHERN CWA.
NOW ONTO THE BAD NEWS. ITS LIKELY THAT THE TASTE OF SPRING ON MONDAY
WILL UNFORTUNATELY BE SHORT-LIVED IN AS THE UPPER PATTERN WILL YET
AGAIN AMPLIFY AND FAVOR STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH IN EASTERN NOAM. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE BACK IN STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE
DIFFERING ON TIMING. ALSO THERE IS NOW FAIRLY DECENT OPERATIONAL AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AGREEMENT IN A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING SOMEWHERE
OVER THE REGION AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN. PRECIP COULD START
AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT BASED ON FASTER OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY AS PER THE SLOWER
GUIDANCE. TRACK WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE SEE MUCH PRECIP AT ALL AND
ALSO IF WE DO WHETHER ITS PRIMARILY RAIN OR A RAIN TO SNOW SETUP.
THUS ITS WAY TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS...BUT THIS PERIOD WILL BE ONE TO
WATCH. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO LINGER BEYOND
DAY 7...KEEPING COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MID MARCH LOCKED
IN OVERALL. WE JUST CANT SEEM TO SHAKE THE NEVER ENDING WINTER OF
2013-14 IT SEEMS.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SW WINDS OVER 10 KT FRI AFTERNOON.
* CHC FOR A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIP LATE FRI EVE INTO EARLY FRI
OVERNIGHT BEFORE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW
TOWARDS DAYBREAK SAT.
* WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT FRI PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SAT.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN CONTROL MUCH OF
THU WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. THIS
WILL ENABLE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE FRIDAY WITH SOME SPORADIC
GUSTINESS OVER 15 KT POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL EASE ITS WAY
ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN ON FRI EVE. THIS FRONT HAS
MORE ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS...THAT IS THE FORCING FOR PRECIP IS
LOCATED BEHIND THE ACTUAL SURFACE WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO COOL IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND IF PRECIP CAN HAPPEN EARLY
ENOUGH IT COULD BE RAIN OR ICE PELLETS BUT WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT.
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH COOLING SHOULD OCCUR FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BE SNOW
WHEN THE STRONGER FORCING MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE PRESENTLY FAVORED TO BE
UP TO AN INCH AT MOST.
IN ADDITION...WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST...THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE MORE FAVORED TO TURN NORTH NORTHEAST OR EVEN
NORTHEAST AT CHICAGOLAND AIRPORTS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE LAKE
MICHIGAN INFLUENCE. WITH THIS...SPEEDS ARE ALSO FAVORED TO COME UP
OVER 10 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING SAT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY FRI.
* MEDIUM IN SNOW OCCURRING LATE FRI NIGHT WHILE LOW ON LOWEST
VISIBILITY AND CIG DURING AS WELL AS START TIME.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...CHANCE SNOW...MAINLY IN THE MORNING...PERIODS OF MVFR
TO IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. VFR/WX NIL OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN DAYTIME. CHANCE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. IFR
CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.
MTF/KJB
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CST
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. FARTHER
WEST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO FRIDAY AND INTO QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
INCREASING IN SPEED INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE (HIGHEST NORTH) LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HIGH AND THE APPROACHING LOW AND COLD FRONTAL TROUGH. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE
FRONT...BECOMING ELONGATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE WEST
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES
INTO MONDAY.
AFTERNOON POLAR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONSIDERABLE ICE COVER
OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN 1/3 AND THE NORTHERN
QUARTER OF SO. ICE COVERAGE OR SHORT FETCH DUE TO NARROW CHANNELS OF
OPEN WATER SHOULD LIMIT WAVE DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...HAVE OMITTED WAVE FORECASTS FOR
NORTHERN LM OPEN WATERS...AND LOCAL IL/IND NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH
APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY ICED-OVER.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1152 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 859 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
A ridge of high pressure at the surface and increasingly neutral
flow aloft will provide quiet weather across central and southeast
Illinois through the night. Winds are beginning to trend southerly
on the back side of the surface ridge, a fact that should help to
keep overnight lows a little warmer than last night. However,
these southerly winds will be offset to some degree by the mostly
clear skies and better radiational cooling scenario than earlier
today.
Going forecast is in good shape overall. Only plan a few tweaks to
the hourly trends for the rest of the night.
Bak
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1152 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
Southerly flow is still expected to develop across the central
Illinois terminals late tonight into early Friday. However, winds
have mostly died off across the area right now. The light winds
have combined with mostly clear skies and low temp/dew point
spreads to produce patchy fog. This may continue to be a problem
through the night, but confidence in how thick the fog will be
low. However, the latest HRRR model runs suggest patchy dense fog
is not out of the question. That being said, do not have enough
confidence to include the thicker fog at this time. Aside from the
fog, VFR conditions should prevail. A cold front is expected reach
KPIA, KBMI, and KSPI by the Friday evening, resulting in a wind
shift to the northwest and thicker VFR cigs.
Bak
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
Quiet weather prevails over central through southeast Illinois early
this afternoon as high pressure holds to our northeast. Quite a
contrast in temperatures depending on snow cover, with readings in
the lower 40s over parts of west central Illinois with no snow on
the ground, to the mid and upper 20s over the northern areas of
the CWA where the deepest snow cover was located. The band of stratus
clouds that was just west of the Mississippi River earlier this
morning has edged further to the northwest and has dissipated quite
a bit from earlier today, while a thicker deck of altocumulus and
cirrus was tracking southeast into central Illinois.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday
The main forecast challenge will be with temperatures over the next
several days and precip type later Friday night into Saturday morning
as a weak upper level wave and attendant frontal boundary pushes across
our area.
High pressure shifting slowly away from our area over the next 24
hours will continue to control our weather through Friday. Winds will
continue to shift more into a southerly direction tonight and then
increase some on Friday ahead of the aforementioned frontal boundary.
This should allow a nice warmup most areas Friday afternoon with even
our northern counties where the deeper snow cover was located warming
into the low to mid 40s, while further south, afternoon temperatures
will climb into the low to mid 50s. Weak upper level shortwave forecast
to track to our north Friday night into Saturday dragging a cold front
thru the area. Stronger low to mid level forcing mainly post frontal
with this system with moisture profiles not very impressive which will
continue to warrant chance POPs late Friday evening thru the day
on Saturday. Ensemble forecast soundings suggest more of a rain or snow
threat in the evening, with the threat going more over to light snow
by Saturday morning, especially across the north. Will continue
with chance POPs Saturday as the upper wave shifts off to our northeast
and the frontal boundary settles south of our area. Mainly a snow and
rain threat north, with forecast soundings supporting mostly rain in
the southeast. Upper wave should be far enough to our east to take most
of the precip out of the forecast later Saturday evening over our far
southeast counties.
Quiet weather returns to the region on Sunday with Pacific high
pressure settling over our area for 24 hours bringing afternoon
temperatures close to normal most areas as winds turn more into the
southwest by afternoon.
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday
A fast moving northern stream wave on Monday will track well to our
north with an increasing southwest flow at the low levels helping
to push temperatures above normal for a change over central thru
southeast Illinois. Will trend closer to the ECMWF guid for Monday
afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s far north
to the lower 60s west and south.
The mild weather will continue into Tuesday, however, a stronger
shortwave is forecast to amplify as it drops southeast into the
central Plains on Tuesday, and then phases with a cutoff low (as
depicted on the latest ECMWF model) over the southern Plains
Tuesday night. At this point, the ECMWF is the only model showing
this phasing process occurring to our south late Tuesday night
while other models indicating the northern stream would become
the dominant trof with very little if any phasing occurring until
the southern stream system pushes off the southeast coast of the
U.S. next Wednesday. Ensembles showing quite a bit of spread with
this system early next week so will not make any significant changes
to the going forecast at this point. Will keep precip chances to our
north during the day with one more mild day in store, and then start
to increase POPs Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper trof
approaches the forecast area and trend temps back down again.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
545 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
AFTER A MILD DAY TODAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND A BRIEF
COOL DOWN INTO SUNDAY. SPRING-LIKE WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS BRINGS A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FANTASTIC AFTERNOON ONGOING WITH A WELL DESERVED TASTE OF SPRING FOR
HOOSIERS. PRESENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
STRONG MARCH SUN HAS ENABLED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AS OF 1930Z.
QUIET NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL BE PRECEDED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM AND THE RAP TO A LESSER EXTENT HINT AT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
UNDERDOING DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CURRENTLY...AND CONSEQUENTLY
SUSPECT THEY MAY BE OVERDOING POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SIMILAR SETUP TO THIS
MORNING WITH LOCALIZED SHALLOW GROUND FOG. DRIER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
DELAY ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SUPPORT
LEANING TOWARDS WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE
A QUICK DROP DURING THE EVENING WITH DRY AIR PRESENT...WITH TEMPS
STEADYING IN THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SLOWLY AS IT ORIENTS QUASI-PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW PATTERN. THE
DEPARTURE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
MORNING...WILL WEAKEN THE FRONT FURTHER AS IT COMES UP AGAINST
REMNANT SURFACE RIDGING. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT PRESENT
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...HARD TO JUSTIFY MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE
POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PRECIP BEGINNING AS SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT RAIN...GRADUALLY MIXING WITH THEN CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS CRITICAL THICKNESSES FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. NO SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE EXPANSION OF
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE MILD TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SPRING TEASE FOR
MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. PASSAGE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY SUPPORTS SOME WIND
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MIXING IS MAXIMIZED. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS...SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ENABLE TEMPS
TO RISE CLOSER TO WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. TRENDED WITH WARMER MAVMOS
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION REESTABLISHES BY LATE DAY. WENT A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR MONDAY HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE TEMPS. THINK MANY LOCATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT 60 DEGREES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAVMOS WAS ALSO PREFERRED FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL THERMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON A SYSTEM MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
BRING SOME RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WIDE IN HANDLING...AND AS SUCH
DISCREPANCIES PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DETAIL REGARDING THE
SYSTEM.
WILL ACCEPT MIDDLING CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH LOOKS GOOD TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING COLDER AND GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION BUT THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
ALLBLEND TEMPS WERE REASONABLE AND FEW CHANGES REQUIRED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 080000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 545 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES APPEAR WITHIN REACH AGAIN TONIGHT...SO
EXPECTING LIGHT FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT...ROUGHLY AFTER
080600Z. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING IN MAY TEND TO
RETARD FOG DEVELOPMENT. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AFTER 080600Z...BUT GIVEN THE PRESENCE
OF THE HIGH CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY FOR NOW.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH KLAF AROUND 081000Z...AND
SHOULD BE NEAR KIND/KHUF BY 081200Z. LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER SOME LOWER CLOUD COVER AROUND
015-025 MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND IN THE POST FRONTAL ZONE.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 7 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH 081200Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
258 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
AFTER A MILD DAY TODAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND A BRIEF
COOL DOWN INTO SUNDAY. SPRING-LIKE WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS BRINGS A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FANTASTIC AFTERNOON ONGOING WITH A WELL DESERVED TASTE OF SPRING FOR
HOOSIERS. PRESENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
STRONG MARCH SUN HAS ENABLED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AS OF 1930Z.
QUIET NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL BE PRECEDED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM AND THE RAP TO A LESSER EXTENT HINT AT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
UNDERDOING DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CURRENTLY...AND CONSEQUENTLY
SUSPECT THEY MAY BE OVERDOING POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SIMILAR SETUP TO THIS
MORNING WITH LOCALIZED SHALLOW GROUND FOG. DRIER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
DELAY ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SUPPORT
LEANING TOWARDS WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE
A QUICK DROP DURING THE EVENING WITH DRY AIR PRESENT...WITH TEMPS
STEADYING IN THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SLOWLY AS IT ORIENTS QUASI-PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW PATTERN. THE
DEPARTURE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
MORNING...WILL WEAKEN THE FRONT FURTHER AS IT COMES UP AGAINST
REMNANT SURFACE RIDGING. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT PRESENT
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...HARD TO JUSTIFY MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE
POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PRECIP BEGINNING AS SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT RAIN...GRADUALLY MIXING WITH THEN CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS CRITICAL THICKNESSES FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. NO SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE EXPANSION OF
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE MILD TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SPRING TEASE FOR
MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. PASSAGE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY SUPPORTS SOME WIND
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MIXING IS MAXIMIZED. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS...SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ENABLE TEMPS
TO RISE CLOSER TO WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. TRENDED WITH WARMER MAVMOS
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION REESTABLISHES BY LATE DAY. WENT A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR MONDAY HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE TEMPS. THINK MANY LOCATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT 60 DEGREES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAVMOS WAS ALSO PREFERRED FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL THERMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON A SYSTEM MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
BRING SOME RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WIDE IN HANDLING...AND AS SUCH
DISCREPANCIES PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DETAIL REGARDING THE
SYSTEM.
WILL ACCEPT MIDDLING CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH LOOKS GOOD TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING COLDER AND GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION BUT THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
ALLBLEND TEMPS WERE REASONABLE AND FEW CHANGES REQUIRED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 07/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
VFR THROUGH THE FIRST 12-14 HOURS OF THE PERIOD LIKELY. MVFR
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MORNING MVFR FOG/HAZE HAS CLEARED AND NOW A QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY
IS IN PROGRESS AT ALL SITES WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
UNRESTRICTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN AN
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALLOWING MVFR CEILINGS AND
PERHAPS SOME FOG/HAZE/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE TO
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
AFTER A MILD DAY TODAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND A BRIEF
COOL DOWN INTO SUNDAY. SPRING-LIKE WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS BRINGS A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FANTASTIC AFTERNOON ONGOING WITH A WELL DESERVED TASTE OF SPRING FOR
HOOSIERS. PRESENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
STRONG MARCH SUN HAS ENABLED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AS OF 1930Z.
QUIET NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL BE PRECEDED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM AND THE RAP TO A LESSER EXTENT HINT AT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
UNDERDOING DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CURRENTLY...AND CONSEQUENTLY
SUSPECT THEY MAY BE OVERDOING POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SIMILAR SETUP TO THIS
MORNING WITH LOCALIZED SHALLOW GROUND FOG. DRIER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
DELAY ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SUPPORT
LEANING TOWARDS WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE
A QUICK DROP DURING THE EVENING WITH DRY AIR PRESENT...WITH TEMPS
STEADYING IN THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SLOWLY AS IT ORIENTS QUASI-PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW PATTERN. THE
DEPARTURE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
MORNING...WILL WEAKEN THE FRONT FURTHER AS IT COMES UP AGAINST
REMNANT SURFACE RIDGING. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT PRESENT
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...HARD TO JUSTIFY MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE
POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PRECIP BEGINNING AS SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT RAIN...GRADUALLY MIXING WITH THEN CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS CRITICAL THICKNESSES FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. NO SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE EXPANSION OF
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE MILD TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SPRING TEASE FOR
MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. PASSAGE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY SUPPORTS SOME WIND
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MIXING IS MAXIMIZED. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS...SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ENABLE TEMPS
TO RISE CLOSER TO WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. TRENDED WITH WARMER MAVMOS
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION REESTABLISHES BY LATE DAY. WENT A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR MONDAY HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE TEMPS. THINK MANY LOCATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT 60 DEGREES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAVMOS WAS ALSO PREFERRED FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL THERMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH WARM ADVECTION AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN. THE RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
THOUGH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THICKNESSES LOOK LIKE A RAIN SNOW MIX
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN IN
THE SOUTH AND THEN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM EXITS. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF THE LOW TRACK AND
HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES SO POPS AND PRECIP TYPE ARE FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY ON.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 07/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
VFR THROUGH THE FIRST 12-14 HOURS OF THE PERIOD LIKELY. MVFR
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MORNING MVFR FOG/HAZE HAS CLEARED AND NOW A QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY
IS IN PROGRESS AT ALL SITES WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
UNRESTRICTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN AN
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALLOWING MVFR CEILINGS AND
PERHAPS SOME FOG/HAZE/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE TO
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1212 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. THEN...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ANY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
LIGHT SNOW OF FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEXT WEEK WILL START OF MILD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE
50S AND LOWER 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN...A SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION IN BY MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
STILL DEALING WITH LOCALIZED SHALLOW GROUND FOG IN SOME SPOTS AS OF
1430Z...BUT THIS IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
IS ERODED AND LOW LEVEL MIXING COMMENCES. TEMPS WARMING QUICKLY AND
ALREADY WELL INTO THE 30S IN MANY LOCALES.
FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SUBTLE
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE. MAIN FOCUS IS ONCE AGAIN ON
TEMPS...AND WILL BE BUMPING THEM UP A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THIS THINKING SUPPORTED BY RAP SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW
MIXING LEVELS TO AROUND 925-950MB DURING PEAK HEATING. PARCELS
BROUGHT DOWN DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE MIXING LEVEL GENERATING MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IN A NUTSHELL...EXPECT A WONDERFUL REST OF THE DAY. ENJOY IT...
HOOSIERS DESERVE A DAY LIKE THIS AFTER WEATHER EXPERIENCED OVER THE
LAST FEW MONTHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND TRAILING
UPPER TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 12Z SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH. RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...SEEN BEST IN 1000-850 MILLIBAR
FRONTOGENESIS...SHOULD LAST LESS THAN 10 HOURS. ALSO MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW ONLY SMALL TO AT TIMES NO QPF. THIS ALL POINTS TO CONTINUING
WITH CHANCE POPS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST
ANY RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...BEFORE IT SHOULD BE OVER WITH AFTER 06Z. WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AROUND AND THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...PREFER TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW MOS. BLEND LOOKS OK
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND WITH MODEL TIME
SECTIONS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A
DRY COLUMN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LITTLE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO THE WARMER 00Z GFS MOS. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO STRAY FAR FROM ALLBLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH WARM ADVECTION AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN. THE RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
THOUGH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THICKNESSES LOOK LIKE A RAIN SNOW MIX
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN IN
THE SOUTH AND THEN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM EXITS. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF THE LOW TRACK AND
HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES SO POPS AND PRECIP TYPE ARE FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY ON.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 07/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
VFR THROUGH THE FIRST 12-14 HOURS OF THE PERIOD LIKELY. MVFR
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MORNING MVFR FOG/HAZE HAS CLEARED AND NOW A QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY
IS IN PROGRESS AT ALL SITES WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
UNRESTRICTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN AN
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALLOWING MVFR CEILINGS AND
PERHAPS SOME FOG/HAZE/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE TO
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
951 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. THEN...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ANY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
LIGHT SNOW OF FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEXT WEEK WILL START OF MILD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE
50S AND LOWER 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN...A SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION IN BY MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
STILL DEALING WITH LOCALIZED SHALLOW GROUND FOG IN SOME SPOTS AS OF
1430Z...BUT THIS IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
IS ERODED AND LOW LEVEL MIXING COMMENCES. TEMPS WARMING QUICKLY AND
ALREADY WELL INTO THE 30S IN MANY LOCALES.
FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SUBTLE
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE. MAIN FOCUS IS ONCE AGAIN ON
TEMPS...AND WILL BE BUMPING THEM UP A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THIS THINKING SUPPORTED BY RAP SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW
MIXING LEVELS TO AROUND 925-950MB DURING PEAK HEATING. PARCELS
BROUGHT DOWN DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE MIXING LEVEL GENERATING MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IN A NUTSHELL...EXPECT A WONDERFUL REST OF THE DAY. ENJOY IT...
HOOSIERS DESERVE A DAY LIKE THIS AFTER WEATHER EXPERIENCED OVER THE
LAST FEW MONTHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND TRAILING
UPPER TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 12Z SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH. RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...SEEN BEST IN 1000-850 MILLIBAR
FRONTOGENESIS...SHOULD LAST LESS THAN 10 HOURS. ALSO MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW ONLY SMALL TO AT TIMES NO QPF. THIS ALL POINTS TO CONTINUING
WITH CHANCE POPS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST
ANY RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...BEFORE IT SHOULD BE OVER WITH AFTER 06Z. WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AROUND AND THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...PREFER TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW MOS. BLEND LOOKS OK
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND WITH MODEL TIME
SECTIONS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A
DRY COLUMN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LITTLE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO THE WARMER 00Z GFS MOS. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO STRAY FAR FROM ALLBLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH WARM ADVECTION AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN. THE RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
THOUGH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THICKNESSES LOOK LIKE A RAIN SNOW MIX
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN IN
THE SOUTH AND THEN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM EXITS. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF THE LOW TRACK AND
HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES SO POPS AND PRECIP TYPE ARE FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY ON.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 07/15Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 925 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
SOME MVFR RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY HAS HUNG ON AT IND/LAF/HUF
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT
60-90 MINUTES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 551 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
MVFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE SITES CURRENTLY. WHILE DROPS TO IFR
CAN/T BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THINK DROPS WOULD BE
BRIEF IF THEY EVEN OCCUR. THUS WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS. AFTER
13-14Z ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD MIX OUT. WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LATE
TONIGHT SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION DEVELOPING WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
ONLY AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH ALSO. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SOME MVFR FOG AND
VISIBILITIES...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS WOUND UP BEING
DRIZZLE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP/NIELD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1227 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST THU MAR 6 2014
A VERY WARM THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM
ARE HOW WARM DO WE REACH TODAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WE HAVE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT TO BE
FOLLOWED BY A QUICKLY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
TODAY...PATCHY FOG DISSIPATED FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE CLEAR TO BEGIN...BUT
CLOUDINESS LOOMS IN NORTHERN COLORADO. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE THINK CLOUD COVER WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO NOT BE MUCH OF A
PROBLEM FOR SURFACE HEATING. BESIDES...WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE
WARMER TEMPS TODAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF
THE SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH MANY SPOTS LIKELY HITTING
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED REGARDING FIRE WEATHER WITH
RH VALUES DIPPING TO THE LOW TEENS...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TOO
WEAK TO SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. WHILE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE HAD SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO
MONDAY MORNING...BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...STRENGTH OF THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...FEEL CONFIDENT REMOVING
POPS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IF PRECIP WERE TO FALL...EVERY
INDICATION SHOWS IT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
FRIDAY...CLOUDY..COOLER...AND BREEZY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN.
HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY PER
LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO AREAS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AND INTO NEIGHBORING NORTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE. THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MOISTURE WILL SATURATE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO PROVIDES AMPLE PVA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...POTENTIALLY
EVEN STRONGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AM A
BIT CONCERNED WITH HOW MUCH THE NAM 4KM CONUS NEST HAS BEEN
DOWNPLAYING THE PRECIPITATION PROCESSES...BUT SINCE ITS PARENT MODEL
SUPPORTS GOOD MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT LIFTING...AM CONSIDERING IT AN
OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE
40S...AND PRECIP TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...BUT AM AFRAID PRECIP MIGHT NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THUS...FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH POPS
GENERALLY IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE...WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY...AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH THROUGH 00Z AT MOST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND FAIRLY
DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY... CHANGING TO SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODEL SNOW FORECASTS ARE IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO...THOUGH EVEN THAT MAY BE A
LITTLE HIGH WITH A MIX TO START AND ANTECEDENT WARM GROUND. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW ALOFT THOUGH APPEARS
RIDGING WILL BE PREDOMINANT AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 924 PM MST THU MAR 6 2014
A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH IN THE EARLY MORNING AND ANOTHER SLIGHTLY MORE
POTENT WAVE MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH IN THE EARLY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE TERMINALS AROUND 14Z. THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE 0Z
TAF ISSUANCE SINCE THE RAP SOUNDING NOW IS INDICATING A LOW CLOUD
LAYER AT KGLD. SINCE THIS WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SHOWED THIS AND
THE PREVIOUS RUN WAS NOT CONSISTENT WITH THIS...WENT WITH A
SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER FOR KGLD. NAM AND RAP STILL INDICATE A LOW
CLOUD LAYER OVER KMCK...SO LEFT THE BROKEN LAYER IN FOR NOW.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE START TIMES FOR RAIN...SINCE NOTHING IN THE
MODELS CHANGED ENOUGH TO ALTER THE TIMING...SO RAIN WILL START
AROUND 18Z AT KMCK AND 19Z AT KGLD. THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO
SNOW ONCE TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR FOR
KMCK AT 01Z AND KGLD AT 02Z. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. KEPT VISIBILITY AT 3SM IN LIGHT SNOW...BUT IT
COULD GO LOWER. LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON THAT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1125 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Water vapor imagery and 00Z upper air analysis indicate a weak upper
level ridge of high pressure tracking eastward across the Central
Plains. Meanwhile, an upper level shortwave trough is moving
southeast across the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, an area
of low pressure has developed across eastern Colorado while moisture
continues to edge slowly northward into western Kansas with surface
dewpoints mainly in the 30s(F).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
The dense fog across at least one half of my eastern zones
dissipated and moved east by late this morning. This fog and low
ceilings slowed down the surface heating, and thus I lowered maximum
temperatures in my eastern tier of zones for this afternoon, as I
saw ICT did also. Winds have been increasing in the post-fog
environment, especially in the west zones near the Colorado border.
Under clear skies tonight and with winds subsiding to around 10
to 11 knots, the HRRR and RUC models develop some fog in about our
eastern 1/3rd of our forecast areas tonight. After collaboration
with ICT (here, in backup mode), I have decided to put patchy fog
(not dense) in our eastern zones. I will brief the evening shift
to pass on to the mid shift to monitor the fog, for any possible
dense development. For now, the models are pointing further east
than my Stafford to Barber eastern border for any dense fog
potential. As for low temperatures, the steady southerly flow
will keep minimum temperatures up from last night. Minimums should
range from the middle 30s in the north and east sections, east of
a line from Dighton to Coldwater, and only to the lower 40s in the
Stanton County to Seward County.
Friday will start mostly clear, but become mostly cloudy by early afternoon.
There is an upper level trough approaching from the west, and for
now looks like it will delay until the Fri Nt period as far as
precip goes. A cold front will plunge south on Friday, switching
morning southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph to north at 15 to 25 mph
and gusty by early afternoon Friday. The clouds will follow the
cold front and skies should become cloudy by early afternoon also.
This will help hold down maximum temperatures. Friday should be
colder than today for most locations, with highs ranging from
around 50F in the Hays area, to the the lower to middle 60s in the
southern Meade and Ashland areas.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A few forecast concerns that need to be addressed. The first was to
tweak precipitation types Friday night. Both GFS and NAM are warmer
with the thermo profile than compared to ECMWF. From a meteorological
conceptual model, applied again the top down approach which suggests
that precip will start as rain and then transition to snow by Saturday
morning. Some drizzle is possible across the northern zones Friday evening
for a brief period before the entire profile becomes completely saturated.
Snowfall amounts look to be sub-advisory and in the 0.50-1.5" range.
Right now GFS/NAM/WRF are starting to agree on an area south of the
Arkansas river for seeing the best shot at accumulating snowfall. This
in association with better isentropic lift. Anyway, if the EC verifies,
than my maximums are too high for Saturday. This model is the outlier
compared to the GFS/NAM/GEM, so will bias towards these other solutions
for now versus the outlier.
A very nice warm up is expected Sunday and particularly Monday. Here
a downslope plume and low level warm air advection will lead to very
nice temperatures with 60s/70sF.
A cold front moves through Tuesday evening. Cold air advection lags
a bit and the EC solution continues to be the outlier. Did not stray
too much from the weighted blend solution for pops. Fixed precipitation
type as it seems dubious to get snow with sfc temperatures in the 50s.
Even the EC has model sfc temperatures in the upper 30sF so changed
the snow ptype and made more of a rain/snow event for a buffer. Of
course, synoptic and mesoscale details are very uncertain at this point
but feel it is appropriate to have a blend of precipitation types rather
than to commit to one precipitation type given the large uncertainty
in the evolution and verification of the thermo profile and lift.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
VFR condtions will prevail at all TAF sites through Friday
afternoon. As for winds, southerly winds of 5 to 15kt will persist
overnight as surface low pressure remains anchored across eastern
Colorado. However, winds will become northerly 20 to 30kt by early
Friday afternoon as a cold front pushes southeastward across
western Kansas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 36 58 28 44 / 0 10 60 20
GCK 38 56 28 49 / 0 20 50 10
EHA 42 62 31 45 / 0 20 60 10
LBL 40 63 30 44 / 0 20 60 20
HYS 35 51 26 46 / 0 20 40 10
P28 35 60 29 43 / 0 10 60 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1057 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXISTS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CREATE
AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT OVER RESIDUAL
SNOWPACK. WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP AS WELL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE 4 KM WRF MODEL AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST. A
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS WHICH INDICATE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THEREFORE MIXING AS OPPOSED
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THAT WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING. WE`VE
INSERTED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT, SINCE A LARGE
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKER ON
MUCH FRIDAY MORNING THAN FOG DID THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FASTER AS WELL, REACHING AROUND 60 DEGREES SOUTH AND EAST OF
WICHITA, AND COOLER UPPER 40S OR LOW 50S FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BETWEEN FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST TO IMPACT THE AREA IS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING INITIAL A CHANCE OF RAIN, RAIN AND
SNOW BEFORE A COMPLETE PHASE CHANCE LOOKS REASONABLE EARLY SATURDAY.
THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS LOW SNOW RATIOS FOR THE ENTIRETY OF
THE PRECIPITATION EPISODE. FOLLOWING THE WAVE ON SATURDAY, A SLOW
WARMUP ON SUNDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MARKED WARMUP APPEARS
LIKELY FOR VERY EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND
WIDESPREAD 60`S ON MONDAY. FAR LESS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EXISTS AT THIS TIME WITH THE NEXT WAVE/FRONTAL PASSAGE MOST
LIKELY CENTERED AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS PRODUCES A MUCH DRIER
SOLUTION THAN THE WET ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASED CIRRUS
CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN MVFR RANGE AT
WORST. THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOG COULD FORM IN CENTRAL KS BETWEEN
12Z-15Z AS WINDS DECOUPLE THERE JUST AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH CNU TERMINAL MID-
LATE EVENING FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH WITH GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS BEHIND FRONT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS APPEAR LIKELY IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 33 58 30 40 / 0 10 50 60
HUTCHINSON 32 54 28 41 / 0 10 40 50
NEWTON 33 55 28 40 / 0 10 40 50
ELDORADO 34 58 30 40 / 0 10 50 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 34 60 32 40 / 0 10 60 60
RUSSELL 32 49 25 45 / 0 10 40 40
GREAT BEND 32 51 26 45 / 0 10 40 40
SALINA 33 50 26 44 / 0 10 40 40
MCPHERSON 32 53 27 42 / 0 10 40 40
COFFEYVILLE 30 60 35 40 / 0 10 60 60
CHANUTE 31 60 31 41 / 0 10 50 60
IOLA 32 59 31 41 / 0 10 50 50
PARSONS-KPPF 30 60 33 40 / 0 10 60 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS
PRIMARILY ON THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA BY
FRIDAY EVENING. FALLING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING...A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL AS WELL FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS ELIMINATES THE CHANCE FOR A WARM
LAYER ALOFT AND THUS MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES. THEREFORE...THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION TYPES THAT SHOULD OCCUR WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM
ARE RAIN AND SNOW. AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN HIGHER AND LOWER TOTALS. FOR THIS RUN...SIDED WITH THE
EUROPEAN MODEL FOR POP COVERAGE WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE DOWN ON QPF.
SEVERAL OTHER PIECES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FASTER MOVING SYSTEM
WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LOWER TOTALS. BASED ON THESE PIECES OF
GUIDANCE...DID SPEED UP THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION. FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS...BELIEVE THAT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM A TRACE TO AS
HIGH AS 2 INCHES OVER EAST COLORADO. AGAIN...THE TIMING BETWEEN THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COLD FRONT AND CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WILL BE KEY PLAYERS FOR THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ANY CHANGES IN
THESE THREE COULD LEAD TO HIGHER OR LOWER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BREEZY NORTH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND...BLOCKING THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM ANY OTHER
DISTURBANCES. THIS RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE RIDGE...WARMING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY REMAIN
CONTINGENT ON WHAT SNOW FALLS FRIDAY NIGHT AND HOW FAST CLOUDS
CLEAR. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS SO AMPLE WARMING AND MELTING OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER...NO
SNOW LEFT IN PLACE AND WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAD TO A
COUPLE WARM DAYS. HIGHS EACH DAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S. ONE CONCERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS THAT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME DRY AIR ALOFT THAT COULD BE MIXED DOWN...LEADING TO LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BECOME A CONCERN.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE
NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE RELEASED FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO ESTABLISHED BY THE CR INITIALIZATION
PROCEDURE. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING A VIGOROUS COLD
OUTBREAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
FALL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 924 PM MST THU MAR 6 2014
A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH IN THE EARLY MORNING AND ANOTHER SLIGHTLY MORE
POTENT WAVE MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH IN THE EARLY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE TERMINALS AROUND 14Z. THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE 0Z
TAF ISSUANCE SINCE THE RAP SOUNDING NOW IS INDICATING A LOW CLOUD
LAYER AT KGLD. SINCE THIS WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SHOWED THIS AND
THE PREVIOUS RUN WAS NOT CONSISTENT WITH THIS...WENT WITH A
SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER FOR KGLD. NAM AND RAP STILL INDICATE A LOW
CLOUD LAYER OVER KMCK...SO LEFT THE BROKEN LAYER IN FOR NOW.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE START TIMES FOR RAIN...SINCE NOTHING IN THE
MODELS CHANGED ENOUGH TO ALTER THE TIMING...SO RAIN WILL START
AROUND 18Z AT KMCK AND 19Z AT KGLD. THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO
SNOW ONCE TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR FOR
KMCK AT 01Z AND KGLD AT 02Z. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. KEPT VISIBILITY AT 3SM IN LIGHT SNOW...BUT IT
COULD GO LOWER. LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON THAT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1259 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TODAY. INCREASED AFTERNOON
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 50S ALREADY.
SHOULD CLIMB CLOSE TO 60 IN MANY AREAS. ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER A BIT
TO ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER REAL CHANGES TO THIS
POINT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUE TO SHOW UP IN THE FAR EAST...THOUGH NO
REPORTS OR OBS OF ANY PCPN MAKING IT TO THE SFC HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.
HAVE CONTINUED LOW POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS ASSIGNING FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES TO THE WX TERM. ALSO...ISSUED A GRAPHICAL NOWCAST TO ADDRESS
THIS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO MAINLY TWEAK THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS PER
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS IS THROWING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BACK WEST INTO FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE NEAREST MEASURABLE PCPN STILL APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A
COUNTY OR SO ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE RAIN AND
SNOW HAVE BEEN REPORTED. A FEW SPECKS OF LIKELY JUST VIRGA ARE
SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST RADAR SCANS OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA VARY MAINLY BY RIDGE AND VALLEY
WITH THE FORMER IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHILE THE LATTER HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S. SHOULD ANY OF THOSE ROGUE RETURNS REACH
THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING ON ELEVATED
SFCS...BUT THE RISK OF ACTUAL ICY SPOTS DEVELOPING IS QUITE REMOTE.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MINIMAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
SITUATION FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST IF THE RETURNS
BECOME MORE DISTINCT AND PERSISTENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL TAKE THE SOUTHEAST LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST AND JUST OFF SHORE AS IT PASSES CAPE HATTERAS LATER THIS
EVENING. UPSTREAM FROM THIS...EAST KENTUCKY BE IN THE MIDST OF FLAT
RIDGING AT MID LEVELS WITH SOME HINTS OF VERY WEAK ENERGY RIDING EAST
OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. A DEVELOPING TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST WILL
INTERACT WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM LATER
SATURDAY. THIS NORTHERN FEATURE WILL THEN CUT SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BLEND OF THE SIMILAR
GFS AND ECMWF PREFERRED OVER THE SLOWER GEM SOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET AND MILD PERIOD OF WEATHER IN
THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SOUTHEAST LOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
COURT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH LATER THAT EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE BROUGHT IN SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS STARTING LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.
USED THE CONSSHORT AND BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T...TD...
AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM THE CONSALL AND BCCONSALL WERE BLENDED INTO THE
EXISTING FORECAST BEFORE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. AS FOR POPS...HAVE GONE A
BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR POPS LATE SATURDAY...OTHERWISE THEY
WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN REGIME TO
REIGN ACROSS THE CONUS. DETAILS WITHIN THE GENERAL FLOW REMAIN MORE
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN. DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE AREA FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A LESS
PHASED...FASTER...AND WEAKER SOLUTION ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...WHILE
THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE PHASED...SLOWER...AND DEEPER. AS SUCH...HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THE GIVEN BLENDED GUIDANCE...ALLOWING FOR GOOD CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND CHANCE POPS
CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME SNOW BEFORE THE MOISTURE
EXITS.
FOR TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL MODERATE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS PEAKING ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
60S. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN TO BELOW BY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN INCREASE TO HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE IN
THE DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
650 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUE TO SHOW UP IN THE FAR EAST...THOUGH NO
REPORTS OR OBS OF ANY PCPN MAKING IT TO THE SFC HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.
HAVE CONTINUED LOW POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS ASSIGNING FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES TO THE WX TERM. ALSO...ISSUED A GRAPHICAL NOWCAST TO ADDRESS
THIS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO MAINLY TWEAK THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS PER
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS IS THROWING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BACK WEST INTO FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE NEAREST MEASURABLE PCPN STILL APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A
COUNTY OR SO ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE RAIN AND
SNOW HAVE BEEN REPORTED. A FEW SPECKS OF LIKELY JUST VIRGA ARE
SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST RADAR SCANS OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA VARY MAINLY BY RIDGE AND VALLEY
WITH THE FORMER IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHILE THE LATTER HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S. SHOULD ANY OF THOSE ROGUE RETURNS REACH
THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING ON ELEVATED
SFCS...BUT THE RISK OF ACTUAL ICY SPOTS DEVELOPING IS QUITE REMOTE.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MINIMAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
SITUATION FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST IF THE RETURNS
BECOME MORE DISTINCT AND PERSISTENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL TAKE THE SOUTHEAST LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST AND JUST OFF SHORE AS IT PASSES CAPE HATTERAS LATER THIS
EVENING. UPSTREAM FROM THIS...EAST KENTUCKY BE IN THE MIDST OF FLAT
RIDGING AT MID LEVELS WITH SOME HINTS OF VERY WEAK ENERGY RIDING EAST
OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. A DEVELOPING TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST WILL
INTERACT WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM LATER
SATURDAY. THIS NORTHERN FEATURE WILL THEN CUT SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BLEND OF THE SIMILAR
GFS AND ECMWF PREFERRED OVER THE SLOWER GEM SOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET AND MILD PERIOD OF WEATHER IN
THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SOUTHEAST LOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
COURT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH LATER THAT EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE BROUGHT IN SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS STARTING LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.
USED THE CONSSHORT AND BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T...TD...
AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM THE CONSALL AND BCCONSALL WERE BLENDED INTO THE
EXISTING FORECAST BEFORE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. AS FOR POPS...HAVE GONE A
BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR POPS LATE SATURDAY...OTHERWISE THEY
WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN REGIME TO
REIGN ACROSS THE CONUS. DETAILS WITHIN THE GENERAL FLOW REMAIN MORE
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN. DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE AREA FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A LESS
PHASED...FASTER...AND WEAKER SOLUTION ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...WHILE
THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE PHASED...SLOWER...AND DEEPER. AS SUCH...HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THE GIVEN BLENDED GUIDANCE...ALLOWING FOR GOOD CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND CHANCE POPS
CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME SNOW BEFORE THE MOISTURE
EXITS.
FOR TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL MODERATE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS PEAKING ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
60S. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN TO BELOW BY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STAY EAST OF KENTUCKY AND THE TAF SITES.
THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TO THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
445 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS IS THROWING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BACK WEST INTO FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE NEAREST MEASURABLE PCPN STILL APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A
COUNTY OR SO ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE RAIN AND
SNOW HAVE BEEN REPORTED. A FEW SPECKS OF LIKELY JUST VIRGA ARE
SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST RADAR SCANS OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA VARY MAINLY BY RIDGE AND VALLEY
WITH THE FORMER IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHILE THE LATTER HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S. SHOULD ANY OF THOSE ROGUE RETURNS REACH
THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING ON ELEVATED
SFCS...BUT THE RISK OF ACTUAL ICY SPOTS DEVELOPING IS QUITE REMOTE.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MINIMAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
SITUATION FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST IF THE RETURNS
BECOME MORE DISTINCT AND PERSISTENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL TAKE THE SOUTHEAST LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST AND JUST OFF SHORE AS IT PASSES CAPE HATTERAS LATER THIS
EVENING. UPSTREAM FROM THIS...EAST KENTUCKY BE IN THE MIDST OF FLAT
RIDGING AT MID LEVELS WITH SOME HINTS OF VERY WEAK ENERGY RIDING EAST
OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. A DEVELOPING TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST WILL
INTERACT WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM LATER
SATURDAY. THIS NORTHERN FEATURE WILL THEN CUT SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BLEND OF THE SIMILAR
GFS AND ECMWF PREFERRED OVER THE SLOWER GEM SOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET AND MILD PERIOD OF WEATHER IN
THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SOUTHEAST LOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
COURT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH LATER THAT EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE BROUGHT IN SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS STARTING LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.
USED THE CONSSHORT AND BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T...TD...
AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM THE CONSALL AND BCCONSALL WERE BLENDED INTO THE
EXISTING FORECAST BEFORE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. AS FOR POPS...HAVE GONE A
BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR POPS LATE SATURDAY...OTHERWISE THEY
WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN REGIME TO
REIGN ACROSS THE CONUS. DETAILS WITHIN THE GENERAL FLOW REMAIN MORE
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN. DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE AREA FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A LESS
PHASED...FASTER...AND WEAKER SOLUTION ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...WHILE
THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE PHASED...SLOWER...AND DEEPER. AS SUCH...HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THE GIVEN BLENDED GUIDANCE...ALLOWING FOR GOOD CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND CHANCE POPS
CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME SNOW BEFORE THE MOISTURE
EXITS.
FOR TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL MODERATE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS PEAKING ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
60S. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN TO BELOW BY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
WELL SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY AND THE TAF SITES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
325 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS IS THROWING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BACK WEST INTO FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE NEAREST MEASURABLE PCPN STILL APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A
COUNTY OR SO ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE RAIN AND
SNOW HAVE BEEN REPORTED. A FEW SPECKS OF LIKELY JUST VIRGA ARE
SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST RADAR SCANS OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA VARY MAINLY BY RIDGE AND VALLEY
WITH THE FORMER IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHILE THE LATTER HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S. SHOULD ANY OF THOSE ROGUE RETURNS REACH
THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING ON ELEVATED
SFCS...BUT THE RISK OF ACTUAL ICY SPOTS DEVELOPING IS QUITE REMOTE.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MINIMAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
SITUATION FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST IF THE RETURNS
BECOME MORE DISTINCT AND PERSISTENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL TAKE THE SOUTHEAST LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST AND JUST OFF SHORE AS IT PASSES CAPE HATTERAS LATER THIS
EVENING. UPSTREAM FROM THIS...EAST KENTUCKY BE IN THE MIDST OF FLAT
RIDGING AT MID LEVELS WITH SOME HINTS OF VERY WEAK ENERGY RIDING EAST
OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. A DEVELOPING TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST WILL
INTERACT WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM LATER
SATURDAY. THIS NORTHERN FEATURE WILL THEN CUT SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BLEND OF THE SIMILAR
GFS AND ECMWF PREFERRED OVER THE SLOWER GEM SOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET AND MILD PERIOD OF WEATHER IN
THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SOUTHEAST LOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
COURT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH LATER THAT EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE BROUGHT IN SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS STARTING LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.
USED THE CONSSHORT AND BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T...TD...
AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM THE CONSALL AND BCCONSALL WERE BLENDED INTO THE
EXISTING FORECAST BEFORE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. AS FOR POPS...HAVE GONE A
BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR POPS LATE SATURDAY...OTHERWISE THEY
WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW ON SATURDAY. PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY EVENING...AND THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM IN A WINDOW FROM LATE
SATURDAY TO EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SPLITS THE PRECIP TO OUR
WEST AND EAST...AND THE PRECIP PATTERN OF THE NAM OFFERS A
COMPROMISE. HAVE CARRIED PEAK POPS OF 20-40 PERCENT ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.
THE INCURSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL...AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR
MILD AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER UNDER SMOOTH/BENIGN NW FLOW ALOFT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS SHOWN DROPPING ESE INTO THE CONUS
EARLY IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW LEFT BEHIND OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO BY THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL EJECT NE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED IS HOW WELL THE EJECTING LOW WILL PHASE WITH
THE NEW TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS HAD SOME RUNS WHICH SHOW SIGNIFICANT
PHASING...INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT 12Z RUN...WHICH RESULTS IN A
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WHILE IT
APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
CONCERNING THE TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH. WOULD LIKE TO LEAVE THE DOOR
OPEN FOR A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT AND HAVE USED A MODEL
BLEND/COMPROMISE. HAVE PLACE HIGHEST POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO FALL AS RAIN IN THE LOCAL AREA...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT DEPARTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
WELL SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY AND THE TAF SITES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
130 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REFINE LOW TEMPS AND HOURLY T/TD GRIDS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT DATA. ALSO NUDGED POPS OUT OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY FRIDAY...IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 AS WELL AS RADAR EVIDENCE OF JUST
VIRGA FROM HIGH CLOUDS ON THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF THE CWA. THESE
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
THE FORECAST STILL ON TRACK THIS EVENING. MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH...AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SREF
AND NAM12 BOTH STILL SUGGESTING THAT PERHAPS ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
COULD MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WHICH
STILL JIVES WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. WITH TEMPERATURES WINDS
AND DEWPOINTS ALSO ON TRACK WITH THE FORECAST VALUES...NO UPDATE TO
THE FORECAST DEEMED NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO FAR THIS EVENING. INGESTED THE
LATEST OBS DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS IN WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND
DEWPOINTS. ASIDE FROM THAT THE FORECAST WAS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES REQUIRED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...PROVIDING LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND
TRACKS TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. AS OF RIGHT NOW...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. SOME
SHALLOW MOISTURE MAY SKIRT OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A BRIEF SHOWER. THE BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN GET TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A
FREEZING RAIN CONCERN. AT THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH CLOUD COVER
ALREADY STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME FALLING ALL THE WAY TO FREEZING TONIGHT UNLESS WE CAN CLEAR OUT.
WITH THE CLEARING NOT LOOKING SO LIKELY...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT...GOING WITH JUST SOME RAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. EVEN IF TEMPERATURES CAN SQUEAK BELOW FREEZING...GROUND
TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM TO ALLOW FOR MUCH OF AN IMPACT. WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THE FOG MENTION AS WELL.
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN THREAT WILL DEPART EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...GIVING
WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO
THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL JUST UNDER FREEZING
IN THE VALLEYS...WITH RIDGES STAYING A BIT MILDER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW ON SATURDAY. PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY EVENING...AND THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM IN A WINDOW FROM LATE
SATURDAY TO EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SPLITS THE PRECIP TO OUR
WEST AND EAST...AND THE PRECIP PATTERN OF THE NAM OFFERS A
COMPROMISE. HAVE CARRIED PEAK POPS OF 20-40 PERCENT ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.
THE INCURSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL...AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR
MILD AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER UNDER SMOOTH/BENIGN NW FLOW ALOFT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS SHOWN DROPPING ESE INTO THE CONUS
EARLY IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW LEFT BEHIND OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO BY THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL EJECT NE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED IS HOW WELL THE EJECTING LOW WILL PHASE WITH
THE NEW TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS HAD SOME RUNS WHICH SHOW SIGNIFICANT
PHASING...INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT 12Z RUN...WHICH RESULTS IN A
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WHILE IT
APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
CONCERNING THE TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH. WOULD LIKE TO LEAVE THE DOOR
OPEN FOR A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT AND HAVE USED A MODEL
BLEND/COMPROMISE. HAVE PLACE HIGHEST POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO FALL AS RAIN IN THE LOCAL AREA...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT DEPARTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
WELL SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY AND THE TAF SITES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
834 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NRN TIER OF COUNTIES UNDER THE WINTER WX ADVISORY...ROUGHLY THE
I-66 AND RT-50 CORRIDOR WERE CANCELLED. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES
TO ERODES AS IT MOVES NWD INTO INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR FROM HIPRES
TO OUR NORTH. POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACROSS THESE AREAS. PRECIP
MAY BRIEFLY MOVE INTO DC-ANNAPOLIS AREA THIS AFTN...BUT TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THEN...RESULTING IN JUST RAIN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...W/ THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDING BACK ONSHORE
WELL INTO THE SRN APLCNS. THE SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SC COAST AND
WILL DECELERATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN...PIVOTS AND
THEN DRAGS THE REMAINDER OF THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST LATER TODAY.
THE NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY MAKE A PUSH
FURTHER NORTH INTO CNTRL VA AND THE NORTH- CNTRL VA PIEDMONT MORE
TOWARD THE PREDAWN HRS.
WHILE THE LOWER-RES REGIONAL SCALE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT
ON THIS LEADING EDGE`S NWD PROGRESS...HI-RES NEAR TERM MODELS LIKE
THE HRRR AND 00Z WRF-NMM4KM PIVOT EDGE OF THE PRECIP ON A LINE FROM
CHO TO DCA AND EAST. THE HIGHER PROBS FOR MEASURABLE FZRA ACCUM WILL
BE OVER THE SRN TIER COUNTIES/LOCALES OF THE CWA W/ A TAPERING
EFFECT BACK TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE/I-66 CORRIDOR BUT STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF FZDZ IN POCKETS OUT AHEAD OF THE LEADING
EDGE.
VERY LIGHT PRECIP REGARDLESS...W/ ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF FZRA
EXPECTED FOR THE NRN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BORDERING THE CNTRL VA LOCALES. KEEPING THE WINTER WX ADVISORY
INTACT FOR THE INCOMING PRECIP POTENTIAL...EVEN IF SOME OF THE NRN
FRINGE AREAS OF THE ADVISORY ARE BRIEFLY BRUSHED W/ A WAVE OF LIGHT
PRECIP-DRIZZLE HEADING INTO THE PRE/POSTDAWN HRS. THE MAIN WINDOW
FOR THIS POTENTIAL IS BETWEEN 6-10A W/ A SLIGHT BUFFER ON EITHER
SIDE BECAUSE SFC TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE.
HIGHS TODAY A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY BUT THE DAYTIME HRS WILL BE
CLOUDY...KEEPING OUR POTENTIAL WARM-UP MODERATED W/ ONLY M-U30S
EXPECTED. A SHARP CLOUD DECREASE WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVE...AS THE
EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD PIVOTS BACK TOWARD THE COAST AND MOVES
WELL E OF THE AREA. THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WON`T BE FAR
BEHIND...W/ SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING OUT LATE TONIGHT. THE HEFTY
CLOUD SHIELD TODAY WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS INTACT IN THE FAIRLY "MOIST"
RANGE...WHICH WILL KEEP OUR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT MODERATED...ONLY
DROPPING A COUPLE/FEW DEG BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY WHILE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE IT WILL
TURN OUT TO BE NOTICEABLY MILDER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. MAX TEMPS
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT DUE TO AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY...BRINGING
SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER OVER THE GULF COAST STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. MORE
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MILD CONDITIONS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BRINGING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CIGS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH MVFR LEVELS DURING THIS TIME.
SOLID MVFR CIGS SPILLING NWD INTO THE REGION...WILL APPROACH IFR
TOWARD DAWN BUT HOVER JUST INTO THE HIGH-END IFR RANGE. THE WINDOW
FOR THE LOWEST CIGS WILL BE THE MID MORNING HOURS...THEN DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO BRING THEM BACK UP SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE AFTN HRS.
NOT UNTIL LATE THIS EVE THOUGH WILL SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AND THE
AREA IMPROVES OUT OF THE MVFR RANGE.
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL PIVOT TOWARD THE AREA - MAINLY THE I-95
CORRIDOR OF DC TO KCHO IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...W/ SOME LIGHT FZRA
AND FZDZ POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS THRU THE POSTDAWN HRS. WINDS
WILL STAY BREEZIER OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION BUT TAPER OFF A
BIT TO A STEADY N-NELY FLOW ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY AND LOW-MID SCA RANGES OVER THE LOWER MD BAY...TAPERING OFF
TOWARD THE MID BAY. WINDS WILL BUMP BACK UP INTO SCA RANGE ACROSS
THE WHOLE MD BAY AND TP LATER THIS MRNG AND INTO THE AFTN/EVE HRS AS
A COASTAL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE CAROLINAS AND MOVES PARALLEL TO
THE COASTLINE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ025-026-
029-036>040-050>052-055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...JRK/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
652 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWING DRY SLOT ALOFT NUDGING INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT AND OUR FAR SW COUNTIES...AND HAS TEMPORARILY
DIMINISHED ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR SW ZONES. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY NEAR GSO INTO SW VA...OWING TO
DEFORMATION UNDERNEATH DEVELOPING COMMA. STRONG UVV/FGEN FORCING
FROM EASTERN CAROLINAS NOW MOVING ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL NOW ACROSS THE TIDEWATER. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY TRAVERSES E-NE.
HV REFLECTED THIS IN WX GRIDS THROUGH MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1034 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
SE NEW ENGLAND WEDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ALONG THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. TO THE SOUTH, ~1005MB SFC
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR ILM AT 09Z. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOW
A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING NE FROM NW SC TOWARDS THE
LOCAL AREA. EARLY MORNING 06Z SOUNDING AT GREENSBORO NC (GSO)
SHOWING A PROMINENT WARM NOSE ~H9...HOWEVER NAM AND 06Z RAP SEEM
A BIT TOO STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE (MORE ON THAT IN A MINUTE).
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWING PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT MAKING INROADS INTO
EASTERN NC, WHICH IS EATING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RAIN
SHIELD. AS EXPECTED, BEST FORCING HAS REMAINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
WITH PRECIP MAKING ONLY VERY SLOW PROGRESS ENCROACHING UPON
CENTRAL VA ZONES. FOR P-TYPE, WE`VE SLOWED THE CHANGEOVER JUST A
BIT AS PER TOP-DOWN TOOLS. OVERALL, VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THINKING HAS OCCURRED SINCE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SFC WET BULB 32 F
LINE ESSENTIALLY ALONG I-85 AND NORTH THROUGH THE TRI- CITIES/RIC
TO KING WILLIAM AND TAPPAHANNOCK. THIS LINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
MIGRATE TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS, BECOMING ALIGNED
FROM ABOUT TAPPAHANNOCK TO RICHMOND AIRPORT TO BOYDTON BY 7AM.
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET/FZRA...AND EVENTUALLY RAIN...WILL BE
QUICK EAST OF THIS LINE. MEANWHILE, AREAS N/W OF THIS LINE WILL
SEE A MUCH SLOWER TRANSITION THAT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A FARMVILLE- GOOCHLAND- BEAVERDAM LINE.
MIXED PCPN OVER THE NWRN COUNTIES EVENTUALLY BECOMES ALL RAIN BY
AROUND NOON (ALTHOUGH COULD SEE FLUVANNA/LOUISA TAKING A BIT
LONGER OUT NEAR HIGHWAY 15) AS TEMPS SLOWLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
ADDED SOME MDT (POSSIBLY HVY AT TIMES) RAIN TO THE GRIDS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN ACROSS SERN HALF OF FA WHERE BEST
FORCING PIVOTS ACROSS. HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S WRN PIEDMONT TO NR
50 SERN COASTAL AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY, A WIND ADVISORY NOW IN PLACE FOR COASTAL
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE COASTAL TIDEWATER REGION (INCLUDING
NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH)...AND THE VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MSAS SHOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR 70
UBARS/KM ACROSS THE EASTERN NC CRYSTAL COAST REGION OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG AND VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WHICH WILL SLIDE NE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH TODAY OVER THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS UP THE
CAROLINA COAST...BEFORE EVENTUALLY PIVOTING NE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING BEFORE PUSHING OUT TO SEA. THIS
PORTENTS TO A BREEZY DAY INLAND (15-20 G 30 MPH) WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS WITHIN THE ADVISORY
AREAS WILL BE N-NE AT 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR IN TWO WAVES...THE FIRST ONE IS ONGOING
NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH ALONG SE COAST. THE SECOND IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED BTWN 21-00Z (4-7PM EST). WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTS TO PEAK ABOVE 50 KT/58 MPH
DURING THE SECOND SURGE OF WINDS...ESPECIALLY FROM NORFOLK/VA
BEACH TO CURRITUCK. WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW WINDS DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE HOISTING A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS, BUT THAT IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY. DUE TO THE N-NE WIND DIRECTION...THE HAMPTON ROADS
AREA MAY END UP IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTN/EVENING. HAVE
KEPT THIS AREA OUT OF THE WIND ADVISORY ATTM DUE TO A VERY SHALLOW
INSTABILITY LAYER BEING DEPICTED IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...WHICH
IS MAINLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN AND A
VERY LOW STRATUS DECK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRS PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE NIGHT. PCPN ENDS W-E WITH
DCRG CLDNS AFTER MIDNIGHT WRN AREAS. LOWS IN THE L-M30S EXCEPT
U30S- L40S SERN COASTAL AREAS.
WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. EXPECT PT TO MSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TMPS. H85 TMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
U50S-L60S WEST OF THE BAY...L-M50S ALONG THE COAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH IN BACKDOOR FASHION LATE SAT NGT THROUGH SUN MRNG.
MOISTURE LIMITED SO CONFINED LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN MOST
COUNTYS. LOWS 35-40. PT TO MSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY AND A BIT COOLER
SUNDAY. HIGHS U40-M50S INVOF THE WATER...U50S-L60S WEST OF THE BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING GENERALLY WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE TWO MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE
LOCATION...MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF LO PRES ACRS THE AREA WED THRU
THU. DRY WX WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MON AND TUE...AS WSW
FLO SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 60S ON MON...AND INTO THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ON TUE. LO PRES WILL THEN RESULT IN CHC FOR
SHOWERS OR RAIN LATE TUE NGT INTO THU MORNG. DRY WX RETURNS THU
AFTN. LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 30S MON MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S TUE MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO UPR 40S WED MORNG...AND RANGING
FM THE LWR 30S TO LWR 40S THU MORNG. HIGHS RANGING FM THE LWR 50S
TO LWR 60S WED...AND RANGING FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
ALONG THE LEESIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN JUST OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. A VERY STRONG/TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP
PRESSURE FALLS TODAY WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY NE-N WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR IN TWO WAVES...THE FIRST
ONE WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE SECOND IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
EXPECTED BTWN 21-00Z. EXPECTED SUSTAINED NE-N WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 KT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST OF NE NC...FAR
SE VA AND THE VA EASTERN SHORE. GUSTS MAY POTENTIALLY REACH 50 KT
LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING FROM KORF TO KMQI...HOWEVER THE MIXING
LAYER IS FAIRLY SHALLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF STEADY RAIN AND A VERY
LOW STRATUS DECK. FARTHER INLAND...EXPECT SUSTAINED NE-N WINDS OF
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
NWD THIS MORNING...HOWEVER IT SHOULD OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES BY
LATE MORNING. PRECIP WILL PRIMARILY FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER COLDER
AIR NORTHWEST OF GENERALLY AN KAVC-KRIC-KSBY LINE WILL ALLOW FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR THIS MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND PRECIP BECOMES ALL RAIN. CIGS
WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR TODAY AND VIS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 2-3SM
IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PUSHES OUT TO SEA AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. EXPECT CIGS TO
LIFT/DISSIPATE AND WINDS TO DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
DUE TO LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION ALSO MOVES OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
IGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
ALONG THE LEESIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN JUST OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. A VERY STRONG/TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP
PRESSURE FALLS TODAY WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY NE-N WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 20-30 KT...HOWEVER STRONGER WIND
GUSTS OF 35-40 KT SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON THE OCEAN FROM PARRAMORE
ISLAND TO CURRITUCK LIGHT...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY...TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 8-9 FT THIS MORNING TO
ROUGHLY 8-13 FT BY THIS AFTN. WAVES ON CHES BAY ARE CURRENTLY
AVERAGING 3-5 FT AND WILL INCREASE TO 4-6 FT BY MID-MORNING. IN
ADDITION...RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN OCEAN/CURRITUCK SOUND WILL
SPREAD NWD OVER ALL WATERS BY LATE MORNING. A GALE WARNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CURRITUCK LIGHT AND FOR THE
MOUTH OF CHES BAY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WHILE STRONG SCA FLAGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL SAT
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON SAT AND HAVE THEREFORE
EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND UNTIL
6 PM SAT EVENING.
OVERALL...CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT DURING SATURDAY.
A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AND WINDS AOB 15 KT SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY CAA AND POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES XPCD TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.5 FT ABV NORMAL ALG THE OCN
AND IN THE BAY FM THROUGH FRI. NO FLOODING XPCD ATTM DUE TO DCRSG
ASTRO TIDE LVLS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR PSBL STRONGER PD OF WNDS
(TNGT THRU FRI) WHICH MAY RESULT IN DEPARTURES RISING CLOSER TO 2
FT (AND THAT WOULD APPROACH MINOR THRESHOLDS IN SOME PLACES).
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-032-
102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ048-049-
061>064-069.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ095-097>100.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ060-065>068-070-071-079-080.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-
658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
635>638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
439 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1034 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
SE NEW ENGLAND WEDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ALONG THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. TO THE SOUTH, ~1005MB SFC
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR ILM AT 09Z. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOW
A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING NE FROM NW SC TOWARDS THE
LOCAL AREA. EARLY MORNING 06Z SOUNDING AT GREENSBORO NC (GSO)
SHOWING A PROMINENT WARM NOSE ~H9...HOWEVER NAM AND 06Z RAP SEEM
A BIT TOO STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE (MORE ON THAT IN A MINUTE).
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWING PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT MAKING INROADS INTO
EASTERN NC, WHICH IS EATING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RAIN
SHIELD. AS EXPECTED, BEST FORCING HAS REMAINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
WITH PRECIP MAKING ONLY VERY SLOW PROGRESS ENCROACHING UPON
CENTRAL VA ZONES. FOR P-TYPE, WE`VE SLOWED THE CHANGEOVER JUST A
BIT AS PER TOP-DOWN TOOLS. OVERALL, VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THINKING HAS OCCURRED SINCE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SFC WET BULB 32 F
LINE ESSENTIALLY ALONG I-85 AND NORTH THROUGH THE TRI- CITIES/RIC
TO KING WILLIAM AND TAPPAHANNOCK. THIS LINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
MIGRATE TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS, BECOMING ALIGNED
FROM ABOUT TAPPAHANNOCK TO RICHMOND AIRPORT TO BOYDTON BY 7AM.
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET/FZRA...AND EVENTUALLY RAIN...WILL BE
QUICK EAST OF THIS LINE. MEANWHILE, AREAS N/W OF THIS LINE WILL
SEE A MUCH SLOWER TRANSITION THAT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A FARMVILLE- GOOCHLAND- BEAVERDAM LINE.
MIXED PCPN OVER THE NWRN COUNTIES EVENTUALLY BECOMES ALL RAIN BY
AROUND NOON (ALTHOUGH COULD SEE FLUVANNA/LOUISA TAKING A BIT
LONGER OUT NEAR HIGHWAY 15) AS TEMPS SLOWLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
ADDED SOME MDT (POSSIBLY HVY AT TIMES) RAIN TO THE GRIDS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN ACROSS SERN HALF OF FA WHERE BEST
FORCING PIVOTS ACROSS. HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S WRN PIEDMONT TO NR
50 SERN COASTAL AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY, A WIND ADVISORY NOW IN PLACE FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE COASTAL TIDEWATER REGION (INCLUDING NORFOLK
AND VIRGINIA BEACH)...AND THE VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. MSAS SHOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR 70 UBARS/KM
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC CRYSTAL COAST REGION OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG AND VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WHICH WILL SLIDE NE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH TODAY OVER THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS UP THE
CAROLINA COAST...BEFORE EVENTUALLY PIVOTING NE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING BEFORE PUSHING OUT TO SEA. THIS
PORTENTS TO A BREEZY DAY INLAND (15-20 G 30 MPH) WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS WITHIN THE ADVISORY
AREAS WILL BE N-NE AT 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR IN TWO WAVES...THE FIRST ONE IS ONGOING
NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH ALONG SE COAST. THE SECOND IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED BTWN 21-00Z (4-7PM EST). WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTS TO PEAK ABOVE 50 KT/58 MPH
DURING THE SECOND SURGE OF WINDS...ESPECIALLY FROM NORFOLK/VA
BEACH TO CURRITUCK. WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW WINDS DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE HOISTING A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS, BUT THAT IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY. DUE TO THE N-NE WIND DIRECTION...THE HAMPTON ROADS
AREA MAY END UP IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTN/EVENING. HAVE
KEPT THIS AREA OUT OF THE WIND ADVISORY ATTM DUE TO A VERY SHALLOW
INSTABILITY LAYER BEING DEPICTED IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...WHICH
IS MAINLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN AND A
VERY LOW STRATUS DECK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRS PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE NIGHT. PCPN ENDS W-E WITH
DCRG CLDNS AFTER MIDNIGHT WRN AREAS. LOWS IN THE L-M30S EXCEPT
U30S- L40S SERN COASTAL AREAS.
WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. EXPECT PT TO MSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TMPS. H85 TMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
U50S-L60S WEST OF THE BAY...L-M50S ALONG THE COAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH IN BACKDOOR FASHION LATE SAT NGT THROUGH SUN MRNG.
MOISTURE LIMITED SO CONFINED LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN MOST
COUNTYS. LOWS 35-40. PT TO MSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY AND A BIT COOLER
SUNDAY. HIGHS U40-M50S INVOF THE WATER...U50S-L60S WEST OF THE BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING GENERALLY WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE TWO MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE
LOCATION...MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF LO PRES ACRS THE AREA WED THRU
THU. DRY WX WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MON AND TUE...AS WSW
FLO SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 60S ON MON...AND INTO THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ON TUE. LO PRES WILL THEN RESULT IN CHC FOR
SHOWERS OR RAIN LATE TUE NGT INTO THU MORNG. DRY WX RETURNS THU
AFTN. LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 30S MON MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S TUE MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO UPR 40S WED MORNG...AND RANGING
FM THE LWR 30S TO LWR 40S THU MORNG. HIGHS RANGING FM THE LWR 50S
TO LWR 60S WED...AND RANGING FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
ALONG THE LEESIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN JUST OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. A VERY STRONG/TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP
PRESSURE FALLS TODAY WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY NE-N WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR IN TWO WAVES...THE FIRST
ONE WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE SECOND IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
EXPECTED BTWN 21-00Z. EXPECTED SUSTAINED NE-N WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 KT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST OF NE NC...FAR
SE VA AND THE VA EASTERN SHORE. GUSTS MAY POTENTIALLY REACH 50 KT
LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING FROM KORF TO KMQI...HOWEVER THE MIXING
LAYER IS FAIRLY SHALLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF STEADY RAIN AND A VERY
LOW STRATUS DECK. FARTHER INLAND...EXPECT SUSTAINED NE-N WINDS OF
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
NWD THIS MORNING...HOWEVER IT SHOULD OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES BY
LATE MORNING. PRECIP WILL PRIMARILY FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER COLDER
AIR NORTHWEST OF GENERALLY AN KAVC-KRIC-KSBY LINE WILL ALLOW FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR THIS MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND PRECIP BECOMES ALL RAIN. CIGS
WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR TODAY AND VIS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 2-3SM
IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PUSHES OUT TO SEA AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. EXPECT CIGS TO
LIFT/DISSIPATE AND WINDS TO DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
DUE TO LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION ALSO MOVES OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FM FLORIDA NE AND JUST OFF THE
SE AND MID ATLC CST THIS EVENG THRU FRI NGT. HAVE ADDED THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY (ANZ634) AND CURRITUCK SND (ANZ633) TO THE GALE WARNING
WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT THRU FRI EVENG. ELSEWHERE...SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU LATE FRI NGT OR THRU SAT MORNG (ON THE CST). WAVES
WILL BLD TO 4 TO 6 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS WILL BLD TO 8 TO
12 FT ON THE CST DUE TO VERY STRONG NE OR N WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
CALMER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FM MIDDAY SAT THRU TUE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES XPCD TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.5 FT ABV NORMAL ALG THE OCN
AND IN THE BAY FM THROUGH FRI. NO FLOODING XPCD ATTM DUE TO DCRSG
ASTRO TIDE LVLS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR PSBL STRONGER PD OF WNDS
(TNGT THRU FRI) WHICH MAY RESULT IN DEPARTURES RISING CLOSER TO 2
FT (AND THAT WOULD APPROACH MINOR THRESHOLDS IN SOME PLACES).
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-032-
102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ048-049-
061>064-069.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ095-097>100.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ060-065>068-070-071-079-080.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-
658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
635>638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...W/ THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDING BACK ONSHORE WELL
INTO THE SRN APLCNS. THE SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SC COAST AND WILL
DECELERATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN...PIVOTS AND THEN
DRAGS THE REMAINDER OF THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST LATER TODAY. THE NRN
EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER NORTH
INTO CNTRL VA AND THE NORTH-CNTRL VA PIEDMONT MORE TOWARD THE
PREDAWN HRS.
WHILE THE LOWER-RES REGIONAL SCALE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT
ON THIS LEADING EDGE`S NWD PROGRESS...HI-RES NEAR TERM MODELS LIKE
THE HRRR AND 00Z WRF-NMM4KM PIVOT EDGE OF THE PRECIP ON A LINE FROM
CHO TO DCA AND EAST. THE HIGHER PROBS FOR MEASURABLE FZRA ACCUM WILL
BE OVER THE SRN TIER COUNTIES/LOCALES OF THE CWA W/ A TAPERING
EFFECT BACK TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE/I-66 CORRIDOR BUT STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF FZDZ IN POCKETS OUT AHEAD OF THE LEADING
EDGE.
VERY LIGHT PRECIP REGARDLESS...W/ ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF FZRA
EXPECTED FOR THE NRN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BORDERING THE CNTRL VA LOCALES. KEEPING THE WINTER WX ADVISORY
INTACT FOR THE INCOMING PRECIP POTENTIAL...EVEN IF SOME OF THE NRN
FRINGE AREAS OF THE ADVISORY ARE BRIEFLY BRUSHED W/ A WAVE OF LIGHT
PRECIP-DRIZZLE HEADING INTO THE PRE/POSTDAWN HRS. THE MAIN WINDOW
FOR THIS POTENTIAL IS BETWEEN 6-10A W/ A SLIGHT BUFFER ON EITHER
SIDE BECAUSE SFC TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE.
HIGHS TODAY A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY BUT THE DAYTIME HRS WILL BE
CLOUDY...KEEPING OUR POTENTIAL WARM-UP MODERATED W/ ONLY M-U30S
EXPECTED. A SHARP CLOUD DECREASE WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVE...AS THE
EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD PIVOTS BACK TOWARD THE COAST AND MOVES
WELL E OF THE AREA. THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WON`T BE FAR
BEHIND...W/ SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING OUT LATE TONIGHT. THE HEFTY
CLOUD SHIELD TODAY WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS INTACT IN THE FAIRLY "MOIST"
RANGE...WHICH WILL KEEP OUR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT MODERATED...ONLY
DROPPING A COUPLE/FEW DEG BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY WHILE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE IT WILL
TURN OUT TO BE NOTICEABLY MILDER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. MAX TEMPS
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT DUE TO AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY...BRINGING
SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER OVER THE GULF COAST STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. MORE
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MILD CONDITIONS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BRINGING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CIGS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH MVFR LEVELS DURING THIS TIME.
SOLID MVFR CIGS SPILLING NWD INTO THE REGION...WILL APPROACH IFR
TOWARD DAWN BUT HOVER JUST INTO THE HIGH-END IFR RANGE. THE WINDOW
FOR THE LOWEST CIGS WILL BE THE MID MORNING HOURS...THEN DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO BRING THEM BACK UP SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE AFTN HRS.
NOT UNTIL LATE THIS EVE THOUGH WILL SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AND THE
AREA IMPROVES OUT OF THE MVFR RANGE.
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL PIVOT TOWARD THE AREA - MAINLY THE I-95
CORRIDOR OF DC TO KCHO IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...W/ SOME LIGHT FZRA
AND FZDZ POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS THRU THE POSTDAWN HRS. WINDS
WILL STAY BREEZIER OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION BUT TAPER OFF A
BIT TO A STEADY N-NELY FLOW ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY AND LOW-MID SCA RANGES OVER THE LOWER MD BAY...TAPERING OFF
TOWARD THE MID BAY. WINDS WILL BUMP BACK UP INTO SCA RANGE ACROSS
THE WHOLE MD BAY AND TP LATER THIS MRNG AND INTO THE AFTN/EVE HRS AS
A COASTAL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE CAROLINAS AND MOVES PARALLEL TO
THE COASTLINE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ009-013-
014-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ016-017.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ029-040-
042-052>054-501.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ025-026-
036>039-050-051-055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
536-537-540>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530-531-
535-538-539.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
230 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...WILL INTENSIFY
WHILE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...THE COASTAL TIDEWATER REGION (INCLUDING NORFOLK AND
VIRGINIA BEACH)...AND THE VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE BEGINNING EARLY
THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A STRONG AND VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES THROUGH TODAY AS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS UP THE CAROLINA COAST...THEN JUST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING BEFORE PUSHING OUT TO SEA. SUSTAINED
SUSTAINED WINDS WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREAS WILL BE N-NE AT 30-35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THE STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR IN TWO
WAVES...THE FIRST ONE WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE SECOND
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED BTWN 21-00Z (OR 4-7PM EST). THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR GUSTS TO PEAK ABOVE 50 KT/58 MPH DURING THE SECOND SURGE
OF WINDS...ESPECIALLY FROM NORFOLK/VA BEACH TO CURRITUCK. WOULD LIKE
TO SEE HOW WINDS DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY BEFORE
HOISTING A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. DUE TO THE N-NE
WIND DIRECTION...THE HAMPTON ROADS AREA MAY END UP IN THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTN/EVENING. HAVE KEPT THIS AREA OUT OF THE WIND
ADVISORY ATTM DUE TO A VERY SHALLOW INSTABILITY LAYER BEING DEPICTED
IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...WHICH IS MAINLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN AND A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1035 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE COAST
OF GA. CYCLOGENSIS OFF THE SERN COAST RESULTS IN A MILLER-A SYSTEM
THAT IS PROGGED TO TRACK NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRI.
CURRENT RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF IN MAIN
PRECIP SHIELD...GENLY HAVING A TOUGH TIME PUSHING NORTH OF
SOUTHERN VA THUS FAR. LATEST 00Z NAM AND RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH JUST A SLOW PUSH NORTH
OVERNIGHT. FOR P-TYPE WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO...NAM12/RAP SFC WET
BULB 32 F LINE. CURRENTLY THIS IS SITUATED FROM ABOUT WILLIAMSBURG
TO EMPORIA WITH THIS LINE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE NW
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING ALIGNED FROM ABOUT TAPPAHANNOCK TO RICHMOND
AIRPORT TO BRUNSWICK COUNTY BY 12Z/FRI. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST WILL GENLY HAVE SNOW/SLEET TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING
RAIN...WHILES AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BECOME PLAIN RAIN.
HAVE MADE SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY...TO
HIGHLIGHT ZONES FROM CUMBERLAND COUNTY TO CAROLINE COUNTY HAVING
THE POTENTIAL TO STAY AT OR BELOW 32 F THE LONGEST (THROUGH NOON
FRI) WITH THE REMAINDER OF COUNTIES RISING ABOVE 32 F BY MID-LATE
MORNING FRI. WITH THAT SAID...BEST FORCING REMAINS ACRS SOUTHERN
VA AND NC OVERNIGHT SO QPF AMOUNTS AND PERHAPS THE HIGHEST IMPACT
FOR SNOW/SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY FREEZING RAIN WILL MORE LIKELY
OCCUR FROM SOUTH HILL TO FARMVILLE THROUGH 12Z/FRI...WITH DRIER
AIR FARTHER NORTH TENDING TO LIMIT QPF TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS (IF
THAT) FOR AREAS NW OF RICHMOND THROUGH 12Z.
LOWS U20S-L30S...XCPT 35-40 FAR SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIXED PCPN OVER THE NWRN CNTYS FRI MORNING BECOMES ALL RAIN BY
AROUND NOON (ALTHOUGH COULD SEE FLUVANNA/LOUISA TAKING A BIT
LONGER) AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ADDED SOME MDT (PSBLY
HVY AT TIMES) RAIN TO THE GRIDS DRNG THE LATE MORNING AND AFTRN
ACROSS SERN HALF OF FA WHERE BEST FORCING SEEN. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW TRACKS NE. HIGHS FROM THE
MID 30S WRN PIEDMONT TO NR 50 SERN COASTAL AREAS.
LOW PRS PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA FRI NIGHT. PCPN ENDS W-E WITH DCRG
CLDNS AFTER MIDNIGHT WRN AREAS. LOWS IN THE L-M30S EXCEPT U30S-L40S
SERN COASTAL AREAS.
TOTAL QPF RANGING FROM ARND 1/4" NWRN MOST CNTYS...1/2" AVC-RIC-SBY
TO BTWN 1.00-1.50" ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC.
WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. EXPECT PT TO MSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TMPS. H85 TMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
U50S-L60S WEST OF THE BAY...L-M50S ALONG THE COAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH IN BACKDOOR FASHION LATE SAT NGT THROUGH SUN MRNG.
MOISTURE LIMITED SO CONFINED LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN MOST
COUNTYS. LOWS 35-40. PT TO MSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY AND A BIT COOLER
SUNDAY. HIGHS U40-M50S INVOF THE WATER...U50S-L60S WEST OF THE BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING GENERALLY WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE TWO MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE
LOCATION...MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF LO PRES ACRS THE AREA WED THRU
THU. DRY WX WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MON AND TUE...AS WSW
FLO SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 60S ON MON...AND INTO THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ON TUE. LO PRES WILL THEN RESULT IN CHC FOR
SHOWERS OR RAIN LATE TUE NGT INTO THU MORNG. DRY WX RETURNS THU
AFTN. LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 30S MON MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S TUE MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO UPR 40S WED MORNG...AND RANGING
FM THE LWR 30S TO LWR 40S THU MORNG. HIGHS RANGING FM THE LWR 50S
TO LWR 60S WED...AND RANGING FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...FINALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND IS RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR
THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING ORF AND ECG. A BAND OF PCPN ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR START TIME OF THE PCPN BUT
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY.
PCPN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN EXCEPT FOR MIXED PCPN AT RIC WHERE
A LIGHT COATING OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING. PCPN
CHANGES TO RAIN FRIDAY MORNING (AROUND 13-15Z).
WENT CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE WITH IFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER THE TIME PCPN BEGINS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONLY SLIGHTLY FRIDAY
AS PCPN CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PUSHES OUT TO SEA AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FM FLORIDA NE AND JUST OFF THE
SE AND MID ATLC CST THIS EVENG THRU FRI NGT. HAVE ADDED THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY (ANZ634) AND CURRITUCK SND (ANZ633) TO THE GALE WARNING
WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT THRU FRI EVENG. ELSEWHERE...SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU LATE FRI NGT OR THRU SAT MORNG (ON THE CST). WAVES
WILL BLD TO 4 TO 6 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS WILL BLD TO 8 TO
12 FT ON THE CST DUE TO VERY STRONG NE OR N WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
CALMER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FM MIDDAY SAT THRU TUE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES XPCD TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.5 FT ABV NORMAL ALG THE OCN
AND IN THE BAY FM THROUGH FRI. NO FLOODING XPCD ATTM DUE TO DCRSG
ASTRO TIDE LVLS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR PSBL STRONGER PD OF WNDS
(TNGT THRU FRI) WHICH MAY RESULT IN DEPARTURES RISING CLOSER TO 2
FT (AND THAT WOULD APPROACH MINOR THRESHOLDS IN SOME PLACES).
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-032-
102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ048-049-
061>064-069.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ095-097>100.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ060-065>068-070-071-079-080.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-
658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
635>638-650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
656 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION.
CHANCES OVERALL REMAIN LOW AND NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WITH THIS ISSUANCE. SUNDAY NIGHT ONE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS SOME
MOISTENING OF THE DGZ...AND LIFT FROM THE WAVE HERE IN SW LOWER MI.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...I WILL FEATURE LOW POPS FOR THE
REGION NORTH OF A HART TO MOUNT PLEASANT LINE. FURTHER SOUTH...AT
THIS POINT LITTLE OR NO LIFT AROUND TO SUPPORT ADDING POPS.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR MONDAY NIGHT FOR POSSIBLY ADDING
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST. NAM AND HIGH RES EURO KEEP IT
DRY...BUT THE GFS IS SHOWING THE DGZ BECOMING MOIST. THIS IS
RELATED TO MID LEVEL FGEN WITH IS STRONGER WITH THE GFS. I HELD
OFF ON MENTIONING PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE GFS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING...DEWPOINTS ARE ELEVATED
COMPARED TO FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT WE MAY SEE
SOME FOG/STRATUS TRYING TO DEVELOP VERY LATE. NAM AND HRRR MODELS
ARE SHOWING THIS. I ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
IT STILL APPEARS THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...LEAVING SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE PCPN COULD START TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-96 ALONG A REGION OF FGEN. THEN THE PCPN SHOULD EXPAND AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH. THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD
OCCUR...WITH MAINLY SNOW FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. BEING
THE NORTHERN FRINGE SHOULD GIVE THE AREA MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED FOR I-96...UP TO TWO INCHES OVER THE FAR
SE CWA...TOWARD JXN.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM GOES BY THE REST OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE
QUIET. A CLIPPER SYSTEM GOES BY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...BUT THE
BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH...SO IT MAY GO BY DRY.
AFTER A NEAR NORMAL START TO TEMPS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
40...WE WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVE BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU. TEMPS
SHOULD BE BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER...THEN COOLER
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH
THE EDGE JUST COMING THROUGH GRR AS OF 2230Z. THE REST OF THE
AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL ALMOST MIDNIGHT FOR THE CLEARING TO
REACH JXN.
FOG/STRATUS FORMATION IS A CONCERN FOR THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD BUT
WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT THIS THREAT IN THE TAFS. GUIDANCE
SHOWS NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC WHICH SHOULD
MITIGATE THE THREAT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY WITH CLOUD BASES AOA 12K FEET.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME RATHER STRONG/GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT
KMKG.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS SEEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES IS PREDICTED FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL MELTING. TEMPERATURES DO COOL
DOWN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL SLOWLY DOWN OR
STOP ANY MELTING. TEMPERATURES THEN TRY TO MODERATE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE SNOWPACK WILL ONLY SLOWLY RELEASE SOME
OF ITS WATER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH LIMITED RUNOFF WATER LEVELS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STABLE THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. A QUIET PATTERN
WILL PERSIST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH SOME
WEAK WAVE ENERGY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AFTER SUNSET THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
COULD BE RAIN OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY TO CHANGE EVERYTHING TO SNOW. HRRR AND
GFS SEEM TO BE A PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING AND WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR SOME FREEZING PRECIP WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST.
NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS TONIGHT OR AMOUNT
OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. SNOWY SURFACES COULD SEE A QUICK
GLAZE OF ICE...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS TONIGHT.
SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH WHERE IT DOES SNOW BUT
AGAIN...EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS VERY LITTLE IMPACTS FROM THIS
PRECIPITATION.
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE STALLING OUT OF ANY PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
INDIANA BORDER UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST LATE IN THE DAY. ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP SATURDAY THAT WILL BE IN FORM OF SNOW AND
AGAIN...LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IF ANY OCCURS AT ALL. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK REACHING THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MINS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES. TRANQUIL
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO BRING A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PCPN BY LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
LOTS OF GULF MOISTURE TO DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. A CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST PCPN WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH TO SE OF OUR FCST AREA.
12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE IS STILL FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE LOW AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED PCPN SHIELD AND SUGGESTS THE NORTHERMOST PERIPHERY OF
THE PCPN MAY CLIP SOUTHERN MI WITH SOME SNOW WEDNESDAY. IT
SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL STAY SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TO MID ATLANTIC REGIONS.
THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z GLOBAL GEM DO NOT SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL PHASE UNTIL LATE WEEK WITH THE SFC LOW
REALLY NOT STRENGTHENING UNTIL IT REACHES THE EASTERN CONUS AS
THAT OCCURS. 12Z GFS GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS THAT SYSTEM WELL SOUTH
OF OUR REGION.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AT
LEAST FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TRANQUIL WX IS EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO
MAINLY MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPS DUE TO LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SNOW MELT TODAY.
IN ADDITION A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.
CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT MIXED PCPN BUT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE THE MOST LIKELY PCPN TYPE.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM CAUSING CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN MAINLY MVFR THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG/LIGHT PCPN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL SNOW MELT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE FREEZING HIGH TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING WILL HELP TO SLOWLY ERODE SOME OF THE SNOW PACK AND
ICE COVER IN LOWER MICHIGAN. NO REAL RAINMAKERS OR HEAT WAVES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO LEADING TO PRETTY STABLE RIVER
CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1138 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT FCSTS EARLIER THIS MRNG TO EXPAND THE WINTER
WX ADVY EWD AND CANCEL COUNTIES IN W-CENTRAL MN. HAVE GOTTEN A FEW
REPORTS OF ICING IN ERN MN INTO WRN WI...AND MAINLY WANTED TO
ACCOUNT FOR A FEW NARROW BANDS OF FRZA/IP SHIFTING FROM MN INTO WI
AHEAD OF THE CDFNT...ESP CONSIDERING THE INTERSTATE CORRIDORS N
AND E OF THE TWIN CITIES. SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE REMAINING
PORTION OF THE ADVY BY NOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT
TERM... THAT BEING AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT PCPN ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA... AND WITH A NICE ELEVATED WARM WEDGE IN PLACE WE/RE
SEEING SOME FZRA. COULD SEE SOME SLEET AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT... WITH PERHAPS A
BRIEF TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST. THINGS ARE BEING FORCED
BY SOME FRONT RELATIVE UPGLIDE... ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. WE/LL LOSE MUCH OF THAT UPPER SUPPORT THIS MORNING... AND
WILL NEED TO RELY ON THE LOWER LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE... INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND
HOPWRF... WEAKEN THE PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... AND
DON/T DO MUCH MORE THAN TRACE PCPN AS THINGS DROP THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. IF ANYTHING REMAINS... IT COULD BE PURE LIQUID FOR THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AS TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO GET
UP ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER... WITH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREA ALREADY SEEING
MIXED PCPN AND WITH THE COLDER AIR ON THEIR DOORSTEP... PUT OUT A
SHORT DURATION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE POTENTIALLY
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WHICH WILL GREET FOLKS UP THERE AS THEY
AWAKEN THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH SOME COLD AIR STRATOCU IN
THE BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER... RIDGING DOES LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT... WHICH
SHOULD HELP BREAK UP MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER... WITH THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA HOLDING ONTO IT LONGEST. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY CLOSE
TO THEIR MAX NOW OVER THE NORTHWEST... WILL BE AT THEIR MAX EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA... AND OVER THE
SOUTH/EAST LATE THIS MORNING... WITH READINGS FALLING BEHIND THE
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
LONG TERM STILL LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET...WITH MILDER TEMPS PREVAILING
FOR ONCE. OUTSIDE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...IT WILL BE A DRY PERIOD AS WELL.
THE COLDEST AIR IN THE PERIOD WILL COME RIGHT OUT THE GATE ON
SATURDAY AS A 1035-1040MB HIGH WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER
THAT...THE JET STREAM GETS SHUNTED WELL NORTH INTO CANADA...WHICH
WILL SLAM THE DOOR TO THE ARCTIC SHUT /FOR A SHORT TIME ANYWAYS/ AND
FLING THE DOOR TO THE PACIFIC WIDE OPEN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS WE
WORK THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THAT ALL TO
FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN RETURNING...BUT WITH ONE
BIG DIFFERENCE...BOTH FEATURES LOOK TO BE SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER EAST
THAN WHAT WE SAW MUCH OF THE WINTER...WHICH MEANS THE BLOW OF COLD
AIR WE GET FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A MONDAY NIGHT FROPA
WILL BE OF THE GLANCING VARIETY...WITH THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR
HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CHINOOK WINDS AND A PACIFIC AIRMASS QUICKLY RETURNING
FOR THURSDAY.
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE NOT MUCH WAS CHANGED...WITH THE PROVERBIAL
SLIGHT UPWARD NUDGE TO THE HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY COMPLETED.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH MOST OF THE AREA TOPPING 40 SUNDAY AND
EVERYONE JOINING IN ON THE FUN MONDAY AS THE MAINLY WEST WINDS WILL
HELP KEEP THE FOG/STRATUS IN CHECK. ONLY PERIOD THAT HAS A HIGHER
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ARE THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE START OF
THE EVENING ANYWAYS...THE SFC RIDGE WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE ERN
CWA...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LIKELY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO QUICKLY FALL OFF AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY NIGHT. NET RESULT HERE IS
THAT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER MAINLY WRN WI COULD END UP SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE ADVERTISED.
AS FOR THAT PRECIP POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ON THE IDEA OF A BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS SRN MN. THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A CLOSED LOW BEGINS
TO EMERGE OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS. EVENTUALLY...THESE TWO WAVES LOOK
TO BECOME ONE...BUT THAT WILL COME LATE ENOUGH IN THE GAME TO LAY
DOWN A SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW
ENGLAND. FOR US...THAT NRN STREAM WAVE WILL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING
OF THE UPPER JET FROM MN ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WITH A DECENT
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SETTING UP OVER SRN MN INTO IA. UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THIS REGION WILL WORK WITH A MID LEVEL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO HELP KICK OFF AN FGEN PRECIP BAND MON NIGHT. THICKNESSES
FROM THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW THIS PRECIP MAYBE STARTING AS RAIN...BUT
QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS CAA BRINGS THICKNESSES DOWN INTO
SNOW TERRITORY. THE GEM IS A WARM OUTLIER WITH THE MAJORITY IF ITS
PRECIP FALLING AS PLAIN RAIN. WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE...CONTINUE
TO MOVE POPS HIGHER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE
THE P-TYPE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE IDEA OF THE ECMWF/GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
ALL TERMINALS SHOWING GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH WEAK INTERMITTENT
BANDS OF SHRA/FZRA SHIFTING OFF TO THE E. ALL SITES WILL BE
DEALING WITH MVFR CEILINGS THRU LATE AFTN...WHILE ERN MN INTO WRN
WI SITES WILL ALSO HAVE ADDED MVFR VSBY CONCERNS...POSSIBLY
INTERMITTENT IFR CONCERNS. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE
ONCE THE CDFNT ITSELF PUSHES THRU AND WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR TO IMPROVE VSBY AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO SCOUR OUT LOW
CLOUDS. ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY LATE EVENING AND WILL REMAIN AS
SUCH TONIGHT THRU TMRW. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NW BY
EARLY AFTN...THEN SETTLE DOWN BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT AND EVEN
BECOME LGT/VRBL FOR A PERIOD NEAR DAWN...LASTING THRU THE LATE
MRNG.
KMSP...NEED TO INITIALIZE AS SOLID MVFR...INCLUDING CEILINGS
SUB-1700 FT...FOR THE START OF THE 07/18Z TAF. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE ABOUT 2-3 HRS IN AS A CDFNT ARRIVES FROM THE
NW...HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS. VFR CONDS LOOK TO
SETTLE IN BY LATE EVENING AND THEN REMAIN AS VFR THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SCT MIDLVL CU CLOUDS TMRW
AFTN...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. NW WINDS THRU THIS EVE BECOME LGT/VRBL
OVERNIGHT BEFORE RESUMING FROM THE W LATE TMRW AFTN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. SW WIND 15-25 KT.
SUN NIGHT...VFR. W WIND 10-20 KT BCMG NW LESS THAN 10 KT.
MON...VFR. W WIND 5-15 KT.
MON NIGHT AND TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL. W WIND 5-15 KT BCMG NW.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ044-045-052-
053-061>063.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
527 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT
TERM... THAT BEING AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT PCPN ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA... AND WITH A NICE ELEVATED WARM WEDGE IN PLACE WE/RE
SEEING SOME FZRA. COULD SEE SOME SLEET AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT... WITH PERHAPS A
BRIEF TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST. THINGS ARE BEING FORCED
BY SOME FRONT RELATIVE UPGLIDE... ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. WE/LL LOSE MUCH OF THAT UPPER SUPPORT THIS MORNING... AND
WILL NEED TO RELY ON THE LOWER LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE... INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND
HOPWRF... WEAKEN THE PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... AND
DON/T DO MUCH MORE THAN TRACE PCPN AS THINGS DROP THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. IF ANYTHING REMAINS... IT COULD BE PURE LIQUID FOR THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AS TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO GET
UP ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER... WITH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREA ALREADY SEEING
MIXED PCPN AND WITH THE COLDER AIR ON THEIR DOORSTEP... PUT OUT A
SHORT DURATION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE POTENTIALLY
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WHICH WILL GREET FOLKS UP THERE AS THEY
AWAKEN THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH SOME COLD AIR STRATOCU IN
THE BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER... RIDGING DOES LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT... WHICH
SHOULD HELP BREAK UP MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER... WITH THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA HOLDING ONTO IT LONGEST. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY CLOSE
TO THEIR MAX NOW OVER THE NORTHWEST... WILL BE AT THEIR MAX EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA... AND OVER THE
SOUTH/EAST LATE THIS MORNING... WITH READINGS FALLING BEHIND THE
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
LONG TERM STILL LOOKS FAIRLY QUITE...WITH MILDER TEMPS PREVAILING
FOR ONCE. OUTSIDE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...IT WILL BE A DRY PERIOD AS WELL.
THE COLDEST AIR IN THE PERIOD WILL COME RIGHT OUT THE GATE ON
SATURDAY AS A 1035-1040MB HIGH WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER
THAT...THE JET STREAM GETS SHUNTED WELL NORTH INTO CANADA...WHICH
WILL SLAM THE DOOR TO THE ARCTIC SHUT /FOR A SHORT TIME ANYWAYS/ AND
FLING THE DOOR TO THE PACIFIC WIDE OPEN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS WE
WORK THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THAT ALL TO
FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN RETURNING...BUT WITH ONE
BIG DIFFERENCE...BOTH FEATURES LOOK TO BE SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER EAST
THAN WHAT WE SAW MUCH OF THE WINTER...WHICH MEANS THE BLOW OF COLD
AIR WE GET FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A MONDAY NIGHT FROPA
WILL BE OF THE GLANCING VARIETY...WITH THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR
HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CHINOOK WINDS AND A PACIFIC AIRMASS QUICKLY RETURNING
FOR THURSDAY.
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE NOT MUCH WAS CHANGED...WITH THE PROVERBIAL
SLIGHT UPWARD NUDGE TO THE HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY COMPLETED.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH MOST OF THE AREA TOPPING 40 SUNDAY AND
EVERYONE JOINING IN ON THE FUN MONDAY AS THE MAINLY WEST WINDS WILL
HELP KEEP THE FOG/STRATUS IN CHECK. ONLY PERIOD THAT HAS A HIGHER
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ARE THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE START OF
THE EVENING ANYWAYS...THE SFC RIDGE WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE ERN
CWA...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LIKELY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO QUICKLY FALL OFF AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY NIGHT. NET RESULT HERE IS
THAT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER MAINLY WRN WI COULD END UP SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE ADVERTISED.
AS FOR THAT PRECIP POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ON THE IDEA OF A BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS SRN MN. THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A CLOSED LOW BEGINS
TO EMERGE OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS. EVENTUALLY...THESE TWO WAVES LOOK
TO BECOME ONE...BUT THAT WILL COME LATE ENOUGH IN THE GAME TO LAY
DOWN A SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW
ENGLAND. FOR US...THAT NRN STREAM WAVE WILL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING
OF THE UPPER JET FROM MN ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WITH A DECENT
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SETTING UP OVER SRN MN INTO IA. UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THIS REGION WILL WORK WITH A MID LEVEL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO HELP KICK OFF AN FGEN PRECIP BAND MON NIGHT. THICKNESSES
FROM THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW THIS PRECIP MAYBE STARTING AS RAIN...BUT
QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS CAA BRINGS THICKNESSES DOWN INTO
SNOW TERRITORY. THE GEM IS A WARM OUTLIER WITH THE MAJORITY IF ITS
PRECIP FALLING AS PLAIN RAIN. WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE...CONTINUE
TO MOVE POPS HIGHER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE
THE P-TYPE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE IDEA OF THE ECMWF/GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
THINGS WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING WITH SOME AMENDMENTS LIKELY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS DUE TO CEILING... VISIBILITY... AND PRECIP-TYPE
ISSUES. BAND OF PCPN ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS HELD TOGETHER MORE
THAN SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE... SO KEEPING
MORE OF IT IN THE FORECAST THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED DOING.
THERE REMAIN SOME POCKETS OF FZRA AND FZDZ... BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT
IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AND MITIGATING THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER...
SO SLEET IS BECOMING MORE PREVALENT. INCLUDED A MENTION OF BOTH
FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH THE PCPN WINDOW LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL MAINLY JUST BE AN HOUR OR TWO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES REMAIN TOUGH TO PIN DOWN AS WELL... WITH THE BULK
OF THE IFR AND LOW MVFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER... THERE ARE SOME REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY... SO CONTINUED TO KEEP THEM AS A POSSIBILITY. SHOULD SEE
SOME MVFR FOR A TIME AFTER THE FRONT GIVEN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
AND THE LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW.
KMSP...FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE TIME FRAME HIGHLIGHTED FOR PCPN AND
POTENTIALLY WORST CONDITIONS... BUT HAVE FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
HOW LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GO. WOULD EXPECT SOME
VARIATION IN TIMING OF UP TO AN HOUR OR TWO... AND CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY GET BELOW 010 FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AS WELL.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 15 TO 25 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT
BECOMING NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KT.
MONDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. WEST WIND 5 TO
15 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ041>043-047-048.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ044-
045-049>059-061-064-065-073.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014-
015.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
331 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT
TERM... THAT BEING AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT PCPN ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA... AND WITH A NICE ELEVATED WARM WEDGE IN PLACE WE/RE
SEEING SOME FZRA. COULD SEE SOME SLEET AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT... WITH PERHAPS A
BRIEF TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST. THINGS ARE BEING FORCED
BY SOME FRONT RELATIVE UPGLIDE... ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. WE/LL LOSE MUCH OF THAT UPPER SUPPORT THIS MORNING... AND
WILL NEED TO RELY ON THE LOWER LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE... INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND
HOPWRF... WEAKEN THE PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... AND
DON/T DO MUCH MORE THAN TRACE PCPN AS THINGS DROP THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. IF ANYTHING REMAINS... IT COULD BE PURE LIQUID FOR THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AS TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO GET
UP ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER... WITH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREA ALREADY SEEING
MIXED PCPN AND WITH THE COLDER AIR ON THEIR DOORSTEP... PUT OUT A
SHORT DURATION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE POTENTIALLY
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WHICH WILL GREET FOLKS UP THERE AS THEY
AWAKEN THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH SOME COLD AIR STRATOCU IN
THE BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER... RIDGING DOES LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT... WHICH
SHOULD HELP BREAK UP MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER... WITH THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA HOLDING ONTO IT LONGEST. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY CLOSE
TO THEIR MAX NOW OVER THE NORTHWEST... WILL BE AT THEIR MAX EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA... AND OVER THE
SOUTH/EAST LATE THIS MORNING... WITH READINGS FALLING BEHIND THE
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
LONG TERM STILL LOOKS FAIRLY QUITE...WITH MILDER TEMPS PREVAILING
FOR ONCE. OUTSIDE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...IT WILL BE A DRY PERIOD AS WELL.
THE COLDEST AIR IN THE PERIOD WILL COME RIGHT OUT THE GATE ON
SATURDAY AS A 1035-1040MB HIGH WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER
THAT...THE JET STREAM GETS SHUNTED WELL NORTH INTO CANADA...WHICH
WILL SLAM THE DOOR TO THE ARCTIC SHUT /FOR A SHORT TIME ANYWAYS/ AND
FLING THE DOOR TO THE PACIFIC WIDE OPEN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS WE
WORK THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THAT ALL TO
FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN RETURNING...BUT WITH ONE
BIG DIFFERENCE...BOTH FEATURES LOOK TO BE SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER EAST
THAN WHAT WE SAW MUCH OF THE WINTER...WHICH MEANS THE BLOW OF COLD
AIR WE GET FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A MONDAY NIGHT FROPA
WILL BE OF THE GLANCING VARIETY...WITH THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR
HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CHINOOK WINDS AND A PACIFIC AIRMASS QUICKLY RETURNING
FOR THURSDAY.
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE NOT MUCH WAS CHANGED...WITH THE PROVERBIAL
SLIGHT UPWARD NUDGE TO THE HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY COMPLETED.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH MOST OF THE AREA TOPPING 40 SUNDAY AND
EVERYONE JOINING IN ON THE FUN MONDAY AS THE MAINLY WEST WINDS WILL
HELP KEEP THE FOG/STRATUS IN CHECK. ONLY PERIOD THAT HAS A HIGHER
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ARE THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE START OF
THE EVENING ANYWAYS...THE SFC RIDGE WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE ERN
CWA...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LIKELY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO QUICKLY FALL OFF AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY NIGHT. NET RESULT HERE IS
THAT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER MAINLY WRN WI COULD END UP SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE ADVERTISED.
AS FOR THAT PRECIP POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ON THE IDEA OF A BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS SRN MN. THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A CLOSED LOW BEGINS
TO EMERGE OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS. EVENTUALLY...THESE TWO WAVES LOOK
TO BECOME ONE...BUT THAT WILL COME LATE ENOUGH IN THE GAME TO LAY
DOWN A SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW
ENGLAND. FOR US...THAT NRN STREAM WAVE WILL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING
OF THE UPPER JET FROM MN ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WITH A DECENT
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SETTING UP OVER SRN MN INTO IA. UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THIS REGION WILL WORK WITH A MID LEVEL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO HELP KICK OFF AN FGEN PRECIP BAND MON NIGHT. THICKNESSES
FROM THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW THIS PRECIP MAYBE STARTING AS RAIN...BUT
QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS CAA BRINGS THICKNESSES DOWN INTO
SNOW TERRITORY. THE GEM IS A WARM OUTLIER WITH THE MAJORITY IF ITS
PRECIP FALLING AS PLAIN RAIN. WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE...CONTINUE
TO MOVE POPS HIGHER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE
THE P-TYPE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE IDEA OF THE ECMWF/GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A CHAOTIC ENVIRONMENT OUT THERE THIS EVENING WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
CONDITIONS AND THUS HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF HOW IT WILL EVOLVE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RWF...MSP...AND EAU HAVE VFR CIGS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME WITH MVFR CIGS AT RNH/STC AND IFR AT AXN. THINK THE
LARGE AREA OF VFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD FILL IN AND
LOWER LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE ALREADY SEEN EVIDENCE OF THIS OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN VERY RECENTLY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
AROUND DAWN...POSSIBLY BRINGING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -FZDZ OR -FZRA. AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...CIGS WILL HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE
UNTIL DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KMSP...VFR CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF
-FZDZ COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. VFR
WILL RETURN BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS...BECOMING W 5 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KT...BECOMING NW 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ041>043-047-048.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
225 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT
TERM... THAT BEING AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT PCPN ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA... AND WITH A NICE ELEVATED WARM WEDGE IN PLACE WE/RE
SEEING SOME FZRA. COULD SEE SOME SLEET AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT... WITH PERHAPS A
BRIEF TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST. THINGS ARE BEING FORCED
BY SOME FRONT RELATIVE UPGLIDE... ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. WE/LL LOSE MUCH OF THAT UPPER SUPPORT THIS MORNING... AND
WILL NEED TO RELY ON THE LOWER LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE... INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND
HOPWRF... WEAKEN THE PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... AND
DON/T DO MUCH MORE THAN TRACE PCPN AS THINGS DROP THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. IF ANYTHING REMAINS... IT COULD BE PURE LIQUID FOR THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AS TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO GET
UP ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER... WITH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREA ALREADY SEEING
MIXED PCPN AND WITH THE COLDER AIR ON THEIR DOORSTEP... PUT OUT A
SHORT DURATION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE POTENTIALLY
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WHICH WILL GREET FOLKS UP THERE AS THEY
AWAKEN THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH SOME COLD AIR STRATOCU IN
THE BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER... RIDGING DOES LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT... WHICH
SHOULD HELP BREAK UP MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER... WITH THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA HOLDING ONTO IT LONGEST. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY CLOSE
TO THEIR MAX NOW OVER THE NORTHWEST... WILL BE AT THEIR MAX EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA... AND OVER THE
SOUTH/EAST LATE THIS MORNING... WITH READINGS FALLING BEHIND THE
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AND THE SMALL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST THAT DO EXIST SIMPLY REFLECT A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. AS
WAS STATED SO ELEGANTLY IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE COLD ADVECTION
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL SCOUR OUT THE PRECIP AND MAKE FOR A COOLER
START TO THE WEEKEND. WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2-3 WEEKS. IN
TERMS OF MELTING THE COLD/DEEP SNOW PACK...WE WILL LIKELY DUE A BIT
MORE DAMAGE ON MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING
DEWPOINTS /ACTUALLY GETTING UP NEAR FREEZING/. THE TIMING ISN`T
QUITE RIGHT TO OPTIMIZE THE WARMING ON MONDAY GIVEN THE SURGING WARM
SECTOR ARRIVES IN THE MORNING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALREADY BEGINS
NEAR THE NOON HOUR. EVEN THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE BACK-TO-BACK 40S FOR
HIGHS SUN-MON...THE SNOW PACK IS TOO EXTENSIVE TO EXPECT VISUAL
IMPACTS. PROBABLY JUST A LOT OF WATER IN LOCAL ROADWAYS DUE TO
MELTING SNOW AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THERE IS A BRIEF COOL DOWN
AFTER MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT RAIN-SNOW PRECIP EVENT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOTHING TOO EXCITING AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A CHAOTIC ENVIRONMENT OUT THERE THIS EVENING WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
CONDITIONS AND THUS HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF HOW IT WILL EVOLVE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RWF...MSP...AND EAU HAVE VFR CIGS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME WITH MVFR CIGS AT RNH/STC AND IFR AT AXN. THINK THE
LARGE AREA OF VFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD FILL IN AND
LOWER LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE ALREADY SEEN EVIDENCE OF THIS OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN VERY RECENTLY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
AROUND DAWN...POSSIBLY BRINGING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -FZDZ OR -FZRA. AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...CIGS WILL HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE
UNTIL DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KMSP...VFR CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF
-FZDZ COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. VFR
WILL RETURN BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS...BECOMING W 5 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KT...BECOMING NW 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ041>043-047-048.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL CHANCES ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER TODAY. ALSO...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL BANDS...SO THIS WILL BE
NOTED IN THE HWO.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SLID THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING...A BREEZY NORTH WIND HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO A LOW THAT STALLED OUT OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
PANHANDLES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING A TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS WERE
HITTING IN AND OUT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LEANED ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND DID NOT ISSUE A CHEAP LAST MINUTE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT TODAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE CALMING DOWN.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIED TO ELEVATED OMEGA AND
FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB TROUGH
CURRENTLY SLIDING OVER THE REGION. THE SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD BE ORIENTED IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND.
THE BAND WILL SLIDE OVER THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT TODAY WITH ITS
SOLUTION...SO LEANED THE FORECAST AND POPS TOWARDS THIS OUTCOME.
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNRISE. LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL IS FORECAST...BUT AREAS WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS ONGOING
WILL EXPERIENCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 TO 3 MILES FOR A
BRIEF TIME PERIOD. THE SREF HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS EVENT WELL FOR
VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAS PLACED THE WORST
VISIBILITIES ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN
00Z AND 04Z.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
OVERVIEW...OUTSTANDING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL
KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING WITH LOTS OF SUN ALLOWING FOR A GOOD WARM UP...WHICH SHOULD
EASILY MAKE SUNDAY THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON
SUNDAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
PLAINS. THE SFC WIND WILL LIGHTEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
MAKING FOR AN EVEN NICER DAY...LIKELY THE NICEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
JUST A LIGHT BREEZE.
TUESDAY...THE MORNING MAY START OUT MILD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY SINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MAY END UP BEING GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
PASSES THROUGH. WILL CALL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID
50S SOUTH...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES GIVEN
FRONTAL TIMING ISSUES AS WE ARE STILL 4 DAYS OUT. THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT DO APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER SFC LAYER
MAY SEE RAIN INITIALLY AND THEN SNOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TIMING.
WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...BUT NO SEVERE COLD
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. RATHER THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD WITH HIGHS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND NORMAL. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN APPEARS WARM AND DRY. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY UNDERCUT AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...BUT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE OVERWHELMINGLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE TAF WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL TURN TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNSET FOR LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DURING SNOWFALL. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE
NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER
TODAY. SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS...AND WILL BE
PRETTY CONSISTENT UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL
NOW APPEARS TO BE BRIEF...WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BETWEEN A
COUPLE HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE SNOW IS IN QUESTION...SO A TEMPO
GROUP WAS USED TO ILLUSTRATE THIS UNCERTAINTY. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TO THE TERMINAL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
SOUTHWEST ZONES COULD MIX TO AROUND 825 MB...WHICH WOULD PULL THE
DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE SFC ALONG WITH SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS. USED
A MIXED DOWN TOOL TO COME UP WITH DEWPOINTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS MORE REALISTIC THAN THE ALLBLEND DEWPOINTS.
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...GUERRERO
FIRE WEATHER...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1134 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE CHANCE FOR PCPN TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM 00Z FRIDAY SHOWED THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES.
AT 300 MB...TWO MAIN JET SEGMENTS WERE NOTED. ONE WAS OVER ONTARIO
(115 KNOTS) AND THE OTHER WAS BACK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA (110
KNOTS). AT 500 MB...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES HAD 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 80 METERS IN NORTHERN NEVADA. AT 700 MB...
THERE WAS A WARM WEDGE WITH TEMPERATURES OF ZERO DEGREES C OR
WARMER FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WARM WEDGE
WAS ALSO EVIDENT AT 850 MB WITH TEMPERATURES OF 15 DEGREES C AS
CLOSE AS RAPID CITY AND NORTH PLATTE.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST...IT WILL HELP A COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF PCPN. HRRR AND MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL DO NOT BRING
MUCH INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...DECIDED TO
STAY WITH A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...06Z NAM AND 00Z GFS.
ALSO CONSIDERED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR DETAILS. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED
FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN ABOUT 600 MB AND 700 MB. THE PCPN TYPE WILL
BE RAIN INITIALLY...THEN A MIX...THEN MOSTLY SNOW AS THE COLD AIR
DEEPENS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. FAIRLY BRISK NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY.
TONIGHT...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST THIS EVENING THEN END AFTER
09Z IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. FOR LOWS...HAVE
STAYED A LITTLE ABOVE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS.
LITTLE OR NO PCPN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN PLANE AND FAIRLY
POOR MIXING CONDITIONS. THAT HIGH PUSHES EAST AND WITH BETTER MIXING
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S (WITH THE WARMEST READINGS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL BUILD
INTO WESTERN CANADA BY TUESDAY...WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
MONDAY WILL BE VERY MILD...PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. COOLER 40S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT INCREASE.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS
HAVE ALSO MOVED IN ALONG WITH GUSTY N/NW WINDS. THIS SHOULD BE THE
TREND THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS DECREASING
SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED A TEMPO GROUP FOR A MENTION OF
SNOW. CIGS MAY COME DOWN TO IFR IN ANY SNOW. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
MIX OF SLEET...BUT DO EXPECT THIS TO QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
532 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE CHANCE FOR PCPN TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM 00Z FRIDAY SHOWED THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES.
AT 300 MB...TWO MAIN JET SEGMENTS WERE NOTED. ONE WAS OVER ONTARIO
(115 KNOTS) AND THE OTHER WAS BACK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA (110
KNOTS). AT 500 MB...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES HAD 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 80 METERS IN NORTHERN NEVADA. AT 700 MB...
THERE WAS A WARM WEDGE WITH TEMPERATURES OF ZERO DEGREES C OR
WARMER FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WARM WEDGE
WAS ALSO EVIDENT AT 850 MB WITH TEMPERATURES OF 15 DEGREES C AS
CLOSE AS RAPID CITY AND NORTH PLATTE.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST...IT WILL HELP A COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF PCPN. HRRR AND MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL DO NOT BRING
MUCH INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...DECIDED TO
STAY WITH A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...06Z NAM AND 00Z GFS.
ALSO CONSIDERED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR DETAILS. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED
FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN ABOUT 600 MB AND 700 MB. THE PCPN TYPE WILL
BE RAIN INITIALLY...THEN A MIX...THEN MOSTLY SNOW AS THE COLD AIR
DEEPENS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. FAIRLY BRISK NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY.
TONIGHT...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST THIS EVENING THEN END AFTER
09Z IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. FOR LOWS...HAVE
STAYED A LITTLE ABOVE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS.
LITTLE OR NO PCPN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN PLANE AND FAIRLY
POOR MIXING CONDITIONS. THAT HIGH PUSHES EAST AND WITH BETTER MIXING
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S (WITH THE WARMEST READINGS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL BUILD
INTO WESTERN CANADA BY TUESDAY...WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
MONDAY WILL BE VERY MILD...PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. COOLER 40S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT INCREASE.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. EXPECT FROPA TO OCCUR AT
KOFK LATER THIS MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL -RASN
MIX DURING THE EARLY AFTN. AT KOMA/KLNK...FROPA TO OCCUR TWD 18Z
THIS AFTN WITH POST-FRONTAL -RASN MIX DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PREVAIL THEN INTO SAT MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE CHANCE FOR PCPN TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM 00Z FRIDAY SHOWED THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES.
AT 300 MB...TWO MAIN JET SEGMENTS WERE NOTED. ONE WAS OVER ONTARIO
(115 KNOTS) AND THE OTHER WAS BACK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA (110
KNOTS). AT 500 MB...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES HAD 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 80 METERS IN NORTHERN NEVADA. AT 700 MB...
THERE WAS A WARM WEDGE WITH TEMPERATURES OF ZERO DEGREES C OR
WARMER FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WARM WEDGE
WAS ALSO EVIDENT AT 850 MB WITH TEMPERATURES OF 15 DEGREES C AS
CLOSE AS RAPID CITY AND NORTH PLATTE.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST...IT WILL HELP A COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF PCPN. HRRR AND MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL DO NOT BRING
MUCH INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...DECIDED TO
STAY WITH A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...06Z NAM AND 00Z GFS.
ALSO CONSIDERED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR DETAILS. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED
FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN ABOUT 600 MB AND 700 MB. THE PCPN TYPE WILL
BE RAIN INITIALLY...THEN A MIX...THEN MOSTLY SNOW AS THE COLD AIR
DEEPENS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. FAIRLY BRISK NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY.
TONIGHT...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST THIS EVENING THEN END AFTER
09Z IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. FOR LOWS...HAVE
STAYED A LITTLE ABOVE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS.
LITTLE OR NO PCPN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN PLANE AND FAIRLY
POOR MIXING CONDITIONS. THAT HIGH PUSHES EAST AND WITH BETTER MIXING
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S (WITH THE WARMEST READINGS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL BUILD
INTO WESTERN CANADA BY TUESDAY...WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
MONDAY WILL BE VERY MILD...PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. COOLER 40S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT INCREASE.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
CHALLENGING FORECAST REMAINS WITH A LOT OF ELEMENTS TO CONSIDER.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT MVFR FOG COULD
PERSIST AT KOMA. A FRONT IS ALSO APPROACHING THE REGION. UNTIL
THE FRONT ARRIVES...THERE WILL BE NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN PLACE WITH WINDS AROUND FL020 AT 45 TO 50 KNOTS. FRONT
ARRIVES AT KOFK BY 11Z...AND 14-15Z AT KLNK/KOMA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET CHANCE AT KOFK 18-23Z...AND A SNOW CHANCE
AT KLNK/KOMA 08/02-06Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
249 AM PST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT WEATHER SATURDAY
BEFORE RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TO NORTHERN NEVADA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RADAR IS PICKING UP A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHWEST ELKO AND EUREKA
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS DROPPED A TRACE AND THAT WAS
ABOUT IT. 3KM HRRR IS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING BEHIND THE CURRENT
BATCH OF SHOWERS. HAVE ADJUSTED POP FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING OVER FAR EASTERN NEVADA.
NORTHWEST FLOW DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WEST OF NEVADA WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOL. WINDS ARE GOING TO BE LESS THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKE WEST WENOVER...TONOPAH...AND
ELY SEEING SOME GUSTINESS.
DRIER AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO THIS EVENING
AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY...WITH DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BY
SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WHICH WILL DEPRESS THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...HOWEVER. VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 8000 FEET.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIOD BEGINS WITH
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA. MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH PW`S AND IVT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HOWEVER GFS AND EC SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION. EC IS MUCH QUICKER BRINGING -8 TO -10C 700MB TEMPS TO MOST OF
THE CWA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THE POINT ON TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AS SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
REACH VALLEY FLOORS SOMETIME LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
MORNING THE WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH DRIER
AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY AT KEKO AND KWMC. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA WITH DECREASING WINDS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
86/90/90
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1203 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO WARNING OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE AND OUT OVER RATON RIDGE WITH MODEST INCREASE IN
FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATION. STATEMENT OUT...ALONG WITH FRESH
PUBLIC ZONES.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1107 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NM OVER 24 HR PERIOD...WITH
SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM AS THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FROM PACIFIC FRONT IN THE
WEST AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THE EAST. WIND GUSTS FOR MOST TAF
SITES COULD REACH 30 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MTN OBSCURATION
ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MAINLY
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. FROM THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREA SATURDAY IF AN UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT MODELS UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS. QUIET
WEATHER WITH A WARM UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER AGAIN MIDWEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS MAKING THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM A HEADACHE. NAM INSISTS THE
SYSTEM WILL BE A CLIPPER TYPE WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHILE ECMWF/GFS STILL ON
BOARD DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW BACK OUT OVER SW NM BY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THEY ALL SEEM TO AGREE THE NE WILL GET SOMETHING OUT OF
THIS...AND GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A QPF/SNOW BOMB OVER THE NE THAT
STILL SEEMS OVERDONE. COLD FRONT...OR AT LEAST A WIND SHIFT...IS
QUICKER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO...AND RUC SHOWS IT
COULD REACH THE FAR NE IN TIME FOR LUNCH AT THE CLAYTON DAIRY QUEEN.
IN ANY CASE...HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH SOME WINTER WX ADVYS FOR THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SAN JUAN MTS AS WELL AS THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS STARTING AT 6 PM AND RUNNING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG RATON
MESA...AND PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL UP SLOPE MAY BE AN ISSUE...AND HAVE FAVORED
THE ECMWF/GFS PATTERN WISE...WHICH PUSHES AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV
EARLY SATURDAY...SO HAVE KEPT THE TREND SATURDAY OF INCREASING POPS
WEST AND DECREASING EAST. MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS...DEPENDING ON
12Z MODEL TRENDS.
CLEARING STILL INDICATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH IN THE EVENING.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE NE MAY BE TOO
WARM DEPENDING ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR LACK OF. ANOTHER SYSTEM DUE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN OUT OF SYNC
WITH EACH OTHER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER NORTHEASTERN NM
WITH A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING BEHIND IT. THE
LATTER SYSTEM WILL BRING A NOTABLE COOL DOWN TO THE FORECAST AREA
INTO SATURDAY WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. FOR TODAY...SOME BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE DEVELOPING WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON IN SEVERAL ZONES.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS WILL RISE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL IN
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP RH ELEVATED ENOUGH TO
AVOID WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. VENTILATION WILL
BE EXCELLENT IN MOST ZONES...AND WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BREAK OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER BEFORE DUSK.
A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL INVADE EASTERN NM THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER THE FAR PLAINS NEAR THE OK/TX BORDERS.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATING IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS...NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME RAIN
WILL INITIALLY BE OBSERVED IN SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS...BUT SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT. BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BE SPILLING BEYOND GAPS/CANYONS
AND INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS...INDUCING MORE GUSTY WINDS. THESE WILL
LAST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE FORESEEN FOR SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUPPORT FROM ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH AND SOME UP SLOPE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE
WITH READINGS RUNNING 5 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FULLY SHIFT SOUTH OF NM BY SUNDAY...BRINGING A
DRIER AIR MASS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION MAY STAGNATE OVER SOME CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN AREAS SUNDAY. BY MONDAY WARMING TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
MIXING HEIGHTS...AND STRONGER BREEZES WILL BRING ABOUT BETTER
VENTILATION RATES. A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE PATTERN THEN FLIPS BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE ONE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BE CLOSING IN ON THE STATE...ALTHOUGH SOME
LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST ON TRACK AND TIMING. THE PATTERN WOULD
APPEAR TO FAVOR STRONGER WINDS WITH ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONTAL
INTRUSION LATE TUESDAY.
52
&&
&&
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-528>531.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.
&&
$$
SHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1107 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NM OVER 24 HR PERIOD...WITH
SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM AS THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FROM PACIFIC FRONT IN THE
WEST AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THE EAST. WIND GUSTS FOR MOST TAF
SITES COULD REACH 30 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MTN OBSCURATION
ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MAINLY
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. FROM THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREA SATURDAY IF AN UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT MODELS UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS. QUIET
WEATHER WITH A WARMUP SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER AGAIN MIDWEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS MAKING THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM A HEADACHE. NAM INSISTS THE
SYSTEM WILL BE A CLIPPER TYPE WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHILE ECMWF/GFS STILL ON
BOARD DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW BACK OUT OVER SW NM BY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THEY ALL SEEM TO AGREE THE NE WILL GET SOMETHING OUT OF
THIS...AND GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A QPF/SNOW BOMB OVER THE NE THAT
STILL SEEMS OVERDONE. COLD FRONT...OR AT LEAST A WIND SHIFT...IS
QUICKER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO...AND RUC SHOWS IT
COULD REACH THE FAR NE IN TIME FOR LUNCH AT THE CLAYTON DAIRY QUEEN.
IN ANY CASE...HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH SOME WINTER WX ADVYS FOR THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SAN JUAN MTS AS WELL AS THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS STARTING AT 6 PM AND RUNNING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG RATON
MESA...AND PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE MAY BE AN ISSUE...AND HAVE FAVORED
THE ECMWF/GFS PATTERN WISE...WHICH PUSHES AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV
EARLY SATURDAY...SO HAVE KEPT THE TREND SATURDAY OF INCREASING POPS
WEST AND DECREASING EAST. MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS...DEPENDING ON
12Z MODEL TRENDS.
CLEARING STILL INDICATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH IN THE EVENING.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE NE MAY BE TOO
WARM DEPENDING ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR LACK OF. ANOTHER SYSTEM DUE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN OUT OF SYNC
WITH EACH OTHER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER NORTHEASTERN NM
WITH A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING BEHIND IT. THE
LATTER SYSTEM WILL BRING A NOTABLE COOLDOWN TO THE FORECAST AREA
INTO SATURDAY WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. FOR TODAY...SOME BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE DEVELOPING WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON IN SEVERAL ZONES.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL RISE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL IN
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP RH ELEVATED ENOUGH TO
AVOID WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. VENTILATION WILL
BE EXCELLENT IN MOST ZONES...AND WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BREAK OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER BEFORE DUSK.
A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL INVADE EASTERN NM THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER THE FAR PLAINS NEAR THE OK/TX BORDERS.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATING IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS...NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME RAIN
WILL INITIALLY BE OBSERVED IN SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS...BUT SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT. BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BE SPILLING BEYOND GAPS/CANYONS
AND INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS...INDUCING MORE GUSTY WINDS. THESE WILL
LAST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE FORESEEN FOR SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUPPORT FROM ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE
WITH READINGS RUNNING 5 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FULLY SHIFT SOUTH OF NM BY SUNDAY...BRINGING A
DRIER AIRMASS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION MAY STAGNATE OVER SOME CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN AREAS SUNDAY. BY MONDAY WARMING TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
MIXING HEIGHTS...AND STRONGER BREEZES WILL BRING ABOUT BETTER
VENTILATION RATES. A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE PATTERN THEN FLIPS BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE ONE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BE CLOSING IN ON THE STATE...ALTHOUGH SOME
LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST ON TRACK AND TIMING. THE PATTERN WOULD
APPEAR TO FAVOR STRONGER WINDS WITH ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONTAL
INTRUSION LATE TUESDAY.
52
&&
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-512>515-527>531.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
452 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO NEW MEXICO LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 AND 35 KT
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. CLOUD BASES WILL STEADILY LOWER OVER NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCATTERED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL BE FOCUSED
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE
OVERNIGHT WHERE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE PREVALENT. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY TONIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF THE STATE WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG GUSTS TO 30 TO
40KT.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MAINLY
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. FROM THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREA SATURDAY IF AN UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT MODELS UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS. QUIET
WEATHER WITH A WARMUP SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER AGAIN MIDWEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS MAKING THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM A HEADACHE. NAM INSISTS THE
SYSTEM WILL BE A CLIPPER TYPE WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHILE ECMWF/GFS STILL ON
BOARD DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW BACK OUT OVER SW NM BY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THEY ALL SEEM TO AGREE THE NE WILL GET SOMETHING OUT OF
THIS...AND GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A QPF/SNOW BOMB OVER THE NE THAT
STILL SEEMS OVERDONE. COLD FRONT...OR AT LEAST A WIND SHIFT...IS
QUICKER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO...AND RUC SHOWS IT
COULD REACH THE FAR NE IN TIME FOR LUNCH AT THE CLAYTON DAIRY QUEEN.
IN ANY CASE...HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH SOME WINTER WX ADVYS FOR THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SAN JUAN MTS AS WELL AS THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS STARTING AT 6 PM AND RUNNING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG RATON
MESA...AND PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE MAY BE AN ISSUE...AND HAVE FAVORED
THE ECMWF/GFS PATTERN WISE...WHICH PUSHES AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV
EARLY SATURDAY...SO HAVE KEPT THE TREND SATURDAY OF INCREASING POPS
WEST AND DECREASING EAST. MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS...DEPENDING ON
12Z MODEL TRENDS.
CLEARING STILL INDICATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH IN THE EVENING.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE NE MAY BE TOO
WARM DEPENDING ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR LACK OF. ANOTHER SYSTEM DUE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN OUT OF SYNC
WITH EACH OTHER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER NORTHEASTERN NM
WITH A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING BEHIND IT. THE
LATTER SYSTEM WILL BRING A NOTABLE COOLDOWN TO THE FORECAST AREA
INTO SATURDAY WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. FOR TODAY...SOME BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE DEVELOPING WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON IN SEVERAL ZONES.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL RISE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL IN
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP RH ELEVATED ENOUGH TO
AVOID WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. VENTILATION WILL
BE EXCELLENT IN MOST ZONES...AND WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BREAK OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER BEFORE DUSK.
A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL INVADE EASTERN NM THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER THE FAR PLAINS NEAR THE OK/TX BORDERS.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATING IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS...NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME RAIN
WILL INITIALLY BE OBSERVED IN SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS...BUT SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT. BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BE SPILLING BEYOND GAPS/CANYONS
AND INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS...INDUCING MORE GUSTY WINDS. THESE WILL
LAST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE FORESEEN FOR SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUPPORT FROM ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE
WITH READINGS RUNNING 5 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FULLY SHIFT SOUTH OF NM BY SUNDAY...BRINGING A
DRIER AIRMASS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION MAY STAGNATE OVER SOME CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN AREAS SUNDAY. BY MONDAY WARMING TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
MIXING HEIGHTS...AND STRONGER BREEZES WILL BRING ABOUT BETTER
VENTILATION RATES. A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE PATTERN THEN FLIPS BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE ONE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BE CLOSING IN ON THE STATE...ALTHOUGH SOME
LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST ON TRACK AND TIMING. THE PATTERN WOULD
APPEAR TO FAVOR STRONGER WINDS WITH ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONTAL
INTRUSION LATE TUESDAY.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-512>515-527>531.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MAINLY
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. FROM THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREA SATURDAY IF AN UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT MODELS UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS. QUIET
WEATHER WITH A WARMUP SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER AGAIN MIDWEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS MAKING THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM A HEADACHE. NAM INSISTS THE
SYSTEM WILL BE A CLIPPER TYPE WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHILE ECMWF/GFS STILL ON
BOARD DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW BACK OUT OVER SW NM BY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THEY ALL SEEM TO AGREE THE NE WILL GET SOMETHING OUT OF
THIS...AND GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A QPF/SNOW BOMB OVER THE NE THAT
STILL SEEMS OVERDONE. COLD FRONT...OR AT LEAST A WIND SHIFT...IS
QUICKER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO...AND RUC SHOWS IT
COULD REACH THE FAR NE IN TIME FOR LUNCH AT THE CLAYTON DAIRY QUEEN.
IN ANY CASE...HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH SOME WINTER WX ADVYS FOR THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SAN JUAN MTS AS WELL AS THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS STARTING AT 6 PM AND RUNNING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG RATON
MESA...AND PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE MAY BE AN ISSUE...AND HAVE FAVORED
THE ECMWF/GFS PATTERN WISE...WHICH PUSHES AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV
EARLY SATURDAY...SO HAVE KEPT THE TREND SATURDAY OF INCREASING POPS
WEST AND DECREASING EAST. MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS...DEPENDING ON
12Z MODEL TRENDS.
CLEARING STILL INDICATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH IN THE EVENING.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE NE MAY BE TOO
WARM DEPENDING ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR LACK OF. ANOTHER SYSTEM DUE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN OUT OF SYNC
WITH EACH OTHER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER NORTHEASTERN NM
WITH A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING BEHIND IT. THE
LATTER SYSTEM WILL BRING A NOTABLE COOLDOWN TO THE FORECAST AREA
INTO SATURDAY WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. FOR TODAY...SOME BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE DEVELOPING WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON IN SEVERAL ZONES.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL RISE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL IN
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP RH ELEVATED ENOUGH TO
AVOID WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. VENTILATION WILL
BE EXCELLENT IN MOST ZONES...AND WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BREAK OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER BEFORE DUSK.
A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL INVADE EASTERN NM THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER THE FAR PLAINS NEAR THE OK/TX BORDERS.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATING IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS...NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME RAIN
WILL INITIALLY BE OBSERVED IN SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS...BUT SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT. BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BE SPILLING BEYOND GAPS/CANYONS
AND INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS...INDUCING MORE GUSTY WINDS. THESE WILL
LAST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE FORESEEN FOR SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUPPORT FROM ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE
WITH READINGS RUNNING 5 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FULLY SHIFT SOUTH OF NM BY SUNDAY...BRINGING A
DRIER AIRMASS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION MAY STAGNATE OVER SOME CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN AREAS SUNDAY. BY MONDAY WARMING TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
MIXING HEIGHTS...AND STRONGER BREEZES WILL BRING ABOUT BETTER
VENTILATION RATES. A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE PATTERN THEN FLIPS BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE ONE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BE CLOSING IN ON THE STATE...ALTHOUGH SOME
LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST ON TRACK AND TIMING. THE PATTERN WOULD
APPEAR TO FAVOR STRONGER WINDS WITH ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONTAL
INTRUSION LATE TUESDAY.
52
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL SWING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME BANDED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED TSTM AS WELL IN THE PM. EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR
CIGS FRIDAY PM WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. STRONG WIND GUSTS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT/FRI
AM FROM MTN WAVES TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. GUSTS TO 35
KTS POSSIBLE. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE NE FRIDAY
AROUND NOON...SLOW UP FRIDAY PM...THEN ACCELERATE S AND W FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY IN THE
NE WHERE IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
CAO AND RTN. 40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 57 29 55 26 / 30 10 10 5
DULCE........................... 52 26 48 19 / 40 30 30 5
CUBA............................ 55 26 46 22 / 30 30 50 5
GALLUP.......................... 56 23 51 19 / 20 20 20 5
EL MORRO........................ 56 24 47 21 / 20 20 30 10
GRANTS.......................... 61 26 51 20 / 20 20 30 5
QUEMADO......................... 62 27 53 21 / 20 20 30 5
GLENWOOD........................ 68 35 59 32 / 10 10 30 20
CHAMA........................... 46 22 42 11 / 50 50 50 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 28 47 24 / 20 30 40 5
PECOS........................... 57 27 44 23 / 10 40 30 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 24 42 13 / 50 60 30 5
RED RIVER....................... 40 19 35 18 / 60 90 40 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 49 22 38 14 / 50 80 40 5
TAOS............................ 55 27 48 18 / 40 50 30 5
MORA............................ 56 24 41 19 / 30 60 30 5
ESPANOLA........................ 62 30 51 27 / 20 30 40 5
SANTA FE........................ 59 28 47 25 / 20 40 30 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 29 50 28 / 20 30 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 32 52 28 / 10 20 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 37 55 34 / 10 20 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 68 37 56 33 / 10 20 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 65 36 55 33 / 10 20 30 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 69 36 56 34 / 10 20 30 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 35 54 32 / 10 20 40 5
SOCORRO......................... 70 38 58 34 / 5 20 30 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 61 30 48 28 / 20 30 30 5
TIJERAS......................... 63 30 49 28 / 10 30 30 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 63 28 49 25 / 10 30 30 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 61 27 47 27 / 10 40 30 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 64 30 49 27 / 10 30 30 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 65 35 51 30 / 10 20 30 10
RUIDOSO......................... 61 34 46 32 / 10 30 40 10
CAPULIN......................... 58 24 41 21 / 50 90 40 5
RATON........................... 62 26 43 20 / 40 70 30 5
SPRINGER........................ 64 27 44 22 / 40 60 30 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 62 24 43 23 / 20 60 30 10
CLAYTON......................... 62 28 48 31 / 30 60 30 5
ROY............................. 64 30 45 28 / 30 60 30 5
CONCHAS......................... 69 35 50 29 / 10 30 30 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 70 35 50 29 / 5 30 20 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 70 34 52 29 / 10 30 30 5
CLOVIS.......................... 73 32 51 30 / 5 20 20 10
PORTALES........................ 74 34 52 29 / 5 20 20 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 74 37 53 31 / 5 20 20 10
ROSWELL......................... 80 42 57 33 / 5 10 30 10
PICACHO......................... 71 37 49 30 / 5 20 30 10
ELK............................. 67 37 48 31 / 5 30 30 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-512>515-527>531.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1220 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY AND THEN OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL WILL END
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY AND MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A
RISK FOR SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS
EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. I HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
BASED ON A REVIEW OF IMAGERY FROM AREA SURF CAMS WHICH SUGGEST
BREAKING WAVES ARE AVERAGING FIVE FEET OR LESS. ALSO THE WIND
ADVISORY ALONG THE NC COAST HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. RADAR SHOWS
PLENTY OF SHOWERS STILL SWIRLING AROUND THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE QUITE LIGHT SO I HAVE TRIMMED BACK QPF
AMOUNTS DESPITE QUITE HIGH POPS CONTINUING FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM KINGSTREE-CONWAY-MYRTLE BEACH. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...
IN YESTERDAY`S BATTLE OF MODELS REGARDING SURFACE LOW POSITION FOR
THIS MORNING...THE GFS EASILY WON VERSUS THE NAM. THE SURFACE LOW IS
ANALYZED NEARLY 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR CURRENTLY...SHOWN BY
BUOY WIND DIRECTIONS AND BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRL ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THICK CLOUDS EXTEND ALL THE WAY BACK INTO
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS UPPER
SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED ON THE GA/SC BORDER WEST OF CHARLESTON
WILL SWING ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
OFFSHORE BY SUNSET.
RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW PLENTY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS A
RESULT OF MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295-300K THETA SURFACES
(GENERALLY 6000-10000 FT AGL) PLUS VERY MODEST CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE WARM NOSE CENTERED ABOUT 8000 FEET UP. THIS
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BECOME LARGE ENOUGH FOR A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD FUEL DEEPER AND MORE
VIGOROUS SHOWERS THAN MIGHT DEVELOP SIMPLY DUE TO THE THERMAL
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC PROCESSES LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO NEAR 100
PERCENT FROM INTERIOR HORRY COUNTY NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PEE
DEE REGION...I-95 CORRIDOR...AND INTO WHITEVILLE AND ELIZABETHTOWN.
POPS FOR THE COASTAL CAPE FEAR REGION HAVE BEEN RAISED INTO THE
80-90 PERCENT RANGE. ALONG THE SANTEE RIVER WHERE SHOWERS ARE JUST
ENDING NOW...ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE MAY ACTUALLY DEVELOP SHORTLY
MAKING IT TOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TO OCCUR TODAY. I SHOW A
DIMINISHING TREND IN POPS THERE THROUGH THE DAY.
WARMER AIR HAS ADVECTED ONSHORE IN THE WILMINGTON AREA THIS MORNING
WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THIS RELATIVELY MILD AIR SHOULD BE VERY SHORT-LIVED. AS THE SURFACE
LOW PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD AND PULLS THE VERY COLD WEDGE AIRMASS
ACROSS INTERIOR NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S HERE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONLY BUDGE A FEW DEGREES TODAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS.
WE ARE HARD AT WORK ON A SUMMARY OF WIND GUSTS AND RAINFALL TOTALS
FROM LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR IT TO BE POSTED AS A PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEEKEND WITH
ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE ONLY CHANGES WITH AN
ABBREVIATED FORECAST SESSION HAVE BEEN TO RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY TO MATCH GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DUE TO THE ONGOING STORM SYSTEM...THE
EXTENDED FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATE SUN
INTO MON FOLLOWED BY BRIEF WEAK COLD ADVECTION. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUD AS THE FRONT PASSES BUT LACK OF DYNAMICS
AND DEEPER MOISTURE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES CLOSE TO ZERO.
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO...SHOWING JUST HOW WEAK THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SUN
NIGHT FRONT IS.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A COMPLEX
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS MID WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
CLIMO TUE AND WED. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED WED AND THU AS
COMPLEX SYSTEM IMPACTS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MID LEVEL
PATTERN...MAINLY LATER IN THE PERIOD...BOTH MAINTAIN ELEVATED PRECIP
CHANCES WED. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS THE AMOUNT OF AMPLIFICATION
WED/THU AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
HAS IMPLICATIONS ON THE POP FORECAST FOR THU. ECMWF SOLUTION IS
SLOWER AND PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH THU. INHERITED FORECAST CARRIED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POP FOR THU AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN ON D7 WILL
NOT MAKE CHANGES. EITHER SOLUTION ENDS UP WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW
CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH AS EXPECTED THE
WEAKER/FASTER GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CIGS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/IFR
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW BRINGS MORE RAIN TO OUR CWA.
IN FACT... MANY SITES ARE REPORTING VARIABLE CIGS CENTERED RIGHT
AROUND 1KFT. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...WILL INCLUDE BKN IFR CIGS
FOR ALL SITES WITH AN OVC MVFR CLOUD LAYER. EXPECT RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TO KEEP CIGS AT MOST SITES JUST BELOW 1KFT. SHORT
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE TEMPO IFR VSBYS AS WELL.
NORTH WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...BECOMING N-NW AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CLEARING
SKIES... SATURATED GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY AT THE INLAND TERMS.
SATURDAY WILL BE VFR WITH W-NW WINDS AOB 8 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...SEAS ARE DIMINISHING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
FORECAST...SO I HAVE MADE 1-2 FOOT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS. GUSTS
AT FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE STILL GALE-FORCE IN THE PAST HOUR...BUT
WE`LL REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR CONTINUING THE GALE WARNING WITH THE 3
PM FORECAST PACKAGE AS WINDS HAVE TO START DIMINISHING AT SOME
POINT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...
YESTERDAY`S GFS MODEL WAS CORRECT: THE LOW IS CENTERED NEARLY 100
MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR THIS MORNING...DEFINED BY WIND DIRECTIONS AT
BUOYS AND BY A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE LOW SHOULD SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON REACHING A POINT NEARLY 100 MILES EAST OF HATTERAS THIS
EVENING. AN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE LOW IS
MAINTAINING STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH RECENT GUSTS MEASURED AT 39
KNOTS AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...32 KNOTS AT TOPSAIL
ISLAND...AND 31 KNOTS AT BOTH THE OCEAN CREST PIER AND JOHNNIE
MERCER PIER. BASED ON TRENDS IN RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY
THE LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL) I HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE
WARNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NC COASTAL WATERS. NO CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE SC COASTAL WATERS.
POWERFUL WINDS LAST NIGHT PRODUCED TRULY EPIC SEAS: 20 FEET OUT AT
FRYING PAN SHOALS AND 10 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE CAPE FEAR HARBOR
BUOY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE AT BOTH LOCATIONS THESE MAXIMUM WAVE
HEIGHTS WERE ALMOST EXACTLY ONE-QUARTER OF THE TOTAL OCEAN DEPTH FOR
EACH GIVEN BUOY LOCATION. SEAS ARE DIMINISHING NOW THAT WINDS HAVE
BACKED AROUND TO NORTHERLY AND SPEEDS ARE DIMINISHING. IT WILL TAKE
AWHILE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF CAPE FEAR...FOR SEAS TO DIMINISH
ENOUGH TO MAKE A RECREATIONAL BOAT TRIP SAFE OR COMFORTABLE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...ABBREVIATED FORECAST SESSION DUE TO ACTIVE
WEATHER. FORTUNATELY CWF FOR THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET.
MAIN FEATURES WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
FRONT SUNDAY. ESSENTIALLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS OF WIND SATURDAY
INCREASING PRE AND POST FRONTAL SUNDAY. NO CHANGES TO SIGNIFICANT
SEAS FORECAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DUE TO THE ONGOING STORM SYSTEM...THE EXTENDED
FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED FROM THUR DAY AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW SUN WILL BECOME NORTHWEST SUN NIGHT FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT. DURATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
SHORT AND LACK OF COLD ADVECTION OR PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT. WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST LATER MON AND MON
NIGHT AS WEAK BUT LARGE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...ENOUGH TO PUSH SPEEDS INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE.
LATE IN THE PERIOD GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP AS SYSTEM TO THE
WEST APPROACHES. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES BUT ON THE HIGH END OF
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT SUN AND MON BUILD BY A FOOT
OR SO FOR TUE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
AMZ254-256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1005 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY AND THEN OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL WILL END
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY AND MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A
RISK FOR SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...IN YESTERDAY`S BATTLE OF MODELS REGARDING
SURFACE LOW POSITION FOR THIS MORNING...THE GFS EASILY WON VERSUS
THE NAM. THE SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEARLY 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE
FEAR CURRENTLY...SHOWN BY BUOY WIND DIRECTIONS AND BY A WELL-DEFINED
LOW CLOUD SWIRL ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THICK CLOUDS EXTEND
ALL THE WAY BACK INTO GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THIS UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED ON THE GA/SC BORDER
WEST OF CHARLESTON WILL SWING ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN OFFSHORE BY SUNSET.
RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW PLENTY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS A
RESULT OF MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295-300K THETA SURFACES
(GENERALLY 6000-10000 FT AGL) PLUS VERY MODEST CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE WARM NOSE CENTERED ABOUT 8000 FEET UP. THIS
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BECOME LARGE ENOUGH FOR A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD FUEL DEEPER AND MORE
VIGOROUS SHOWERS THAN MIGHT DEVELOP SIMPLY DUE TO THE THERMAL
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC PROCESSES LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO NEAR 100
PERCENT FROM INTERIOR HORRY COUNTY NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PEE
DEE REGION...I-95 CORRIDOR...AND INTO WHITEVILLE AND ELIZABETHTOWN.
POPS FOR THE COASTAL CAPE FEAR REGION HAVE BEEN RAISED INTO THE
80-90 PERCENT RANGE. ALONG THE SANTEE RIVER WHERE SHOWERS ARE JUST
ENDING NOW...ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE MAY ACTUALLY DEVELOP SHORTLY
MAKING IT TOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TO OCCUR TODAY. I SHOW A
DIMINISHING TREND IN POPS THERE THROUGH THE DAY.
WARMER AIR HAS ADVECTED ONSHORE IN THE WILMINGTON AREA THIS MORNING
WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THIS RELATIVELY MILD AIR SHOULD BE VERY SHORT-LIVED. AS THE SURFACE
LOW PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD AND PULLS THE VERY COLD WEDGE AIRMASS
ACROSS INTERIOR NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S HERE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONLY BUDGE A FEW DEGREES TODAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS.
WE ARE HARD AT WORK ON A SUMMARY OF WIND GUSTS AND RAINFALL TOTALS
FROM LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR IT TO BE POSTED AS A PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEEKEND WITH
ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE ONLY CHANGES WITH AN
ABBREVIATED FORECAST SESSION HAVE BEEN TO RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY TO MATCH GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DUE TO THE ONGOING STORM SYSTEM...THE
EXTENDED FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATE SUN
INTO MON FOLLOWED BY BRIEF WEAK COLD ADVECTION. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUD AS THE FRONT PASSES BUT LACK OF DYNAMICS
AND DEEPER MOISTURE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES CLOSE TO ZERO.
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO...SHOWING JUST HOW WEAK THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SUN
NIGHT FRONT IS.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A COMPLEX
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS MID WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
CLIMO TUE AND WED. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED WED AND THU AS
COMPLEX SYSTEM IMPACTS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MID LEVEL
PATTERN...MAINLY LATER IN THE PERIOD...BOTH MAINTAIN ELEVATED PRECIP
CHANCES WED. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS THE AMOUNT OF AMPLIFICATION
WED/THU AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
HAS IMPLICATIONS ON THE POP FORECAST FOR THU. ECMWF SOLUTION IS
SLOWER AND PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH THU. INHERITED FORECAST CARRIED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POP FOR THU AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN ON D7 WILL
NOT MAKE CHANGES. EITHER SOLUTION ENDS UP WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW
CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH AS EXPECTED THE
WEAKER/FASTER GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMS THIS MORNING
WITH CIGS HOVERING AROUND 1KFT AT MOST SITES. DESPITE THE CURRENT
LULL IN PCPN ON RADAR...MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CIGS LINGERING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...MAKING THE AVIATION FCST A BIT MORE CHALLENGING. BUT
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS KEPT WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS FROM
PERSISTING SO FAR TODAY...SO WOULD EXPECT MVFR CIGS 1-1.5KFT TO
PREVAIL WITH TEMPO IFR THIS MORNING. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS TONIGHT. AS
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME AOB 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...PATCHES OF
MVFR/IFR FOG WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND
CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...YESTERDAY`S GFS MODEL WAS CORRECT: THE LOW IS
CENTERED NEARLY 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR THIS MORNING...DEFINED
BY WIND DIRECTIONS AT BUOYS AND BY A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW SHOULD SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON REACHING A POINT NEARLY 100 MILES EAST
OF HATTERAS THIS EVENING. AN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SURROUNDING THE LOW IS MAINTAINING STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH RECENT
GUSTS MEASURED AT 39 KNOTS AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...32 KNOTS
AT TOPSAIL ISLAND...AND 31 KNOTS AT BOTH THE OCEAN CREST PIER AND
JOHNNIE MERCER PIER. BASED ON TRENDS IN RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE
(ESPECIALLY THE LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL) I HAVE EXTENDED
THE GALE WARNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NC COASTAL WATERS. NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SC COASTAL WATERS.
POWERFUL WINDS LAST NIGHT PRODUCED TRULY EPIC SEAS: 20 FEET OUT AT
FRYING PAN SHOALS AND 10 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE CAPE FEAR HARBOR
BUOY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE AT BOTH LOCATIONS THESE MAXIMUM WAVE
HEIGHTS WERE ALMOST EXACTLY ONE-QUARTER OF THE TOTAL OCEAN DEPTH FOR
EACH GIVEN BUOY LOCATION. SEAS ARE DIMINISHING NOW THAT WINDS HAVE
BACKED AROUND TO NORTHERLY AND SPEEDS ARE DIMINISHING. IT WILL TAKE
AWHILE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF CAPE FEAR...FOR SEAS TO DIMINISH
ENOUGH TO MAKE A RECREATIONAL BOAT TRIP SAFE OR COMFORTABLE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...ABBREVIATED FORECAST SESSION DUE TO ACTIVE
WEATHER. FORTUNATELY CWF FOR THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET.
MAIN FEATURES WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
FRONT SUNDAY. ESSENTIALLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS OF WIND SATURDAY
INCREASING PRE AND POST FRONTAL SUNDAY. NO CHANGES TO SIGNIFICANT
SEAS FORECAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DUE TO THE ONGOING STORM SYSTEM...THE EXTENDED
FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED FROM THUR DAY AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW SUN WILL BECOME NORTHWEST SUN NIGHT FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT. DURATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
SHORT AND LACK OF COLD ADVECTION OR PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT. WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST LATER MON AND MON
NIGHT AS WEAK BUT LARGE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...ENOUGH TO PUSH SPEEDS INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE.
LATE IN THE PERIOD GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP AS SYSTEM TO THE
WEST APPROACHES. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES BUT ON THE HIGH END OF
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT SUN AND MON BUILD BY A FOOT
OR SO FOR TUE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR 8 FT BREAKERS. WAVE HEIGHTS AT SOME OF THE
OFFSHORE BUOYS REACHED 20 FT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TO
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION INTO THIS MORNING WITH THE WORST OF IT
LIKELY ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR COAST. THERE IS LIMITED OBSERVATIONAL
DATA...BUT WE DID EXCEED 6 FT...MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD...AT
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE IS AROUND
NOON. AT THAT TIME...THE LOW WILL BE SITUATED ABOUT 140 MILES E OF
THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR. THIS WILL PUT US ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WITH WINDS MORE N THAN NE. THE RAIN WILL ALSO BE MORE
SPORADIC AT THAT TIME. THESE FACTORS SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE THE
RISK OF RENEWED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS TO DETERMINE WHETHER A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. A MODEST BLOWOUT TIDE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE EVENING LOW
TIDE...6 TO 7 PM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ054-
056.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ105>110.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ254-256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM THURSDAY...
CHALLENGING FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SEVERAL
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS PLAUSIBLE. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO ADD WARREN
COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY BASED ON REPORTS OF SLEET COVERING THE GROUND
AND EXPECTATIONS OF THE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE A
LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER THINKING.
LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SFC PATTERN IN A CLASSIC CAD
SIGNATURE WITH THE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE NC PIEDMONT FROM A PARENT
HIGH CENTERED OVER BOSTON AT 01Z. PER LOW LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
THIS FEATURE STILL SUPPLYING TEH WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH COOL DRY AIR.
MEANWHILE SFC LOW WAS OFF THE NE FL COAST LIFTING NE. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO WEATHER SYSTEM WAS CREATING
BLUSTERY NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTS AROUND 30MPH IN THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
PRECIPITATION HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN FALLING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. A SWITCH TO A WINTRY MIX OCCURS IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND WEST OF
THIS REGION WITH PREDOMINATELY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OCCURRING IN THE
NW PIEDMONT-TRIAD AND INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT NEAR THE VA
BORDER.
GSO 00Z SOUNDING DEPICTS A MODEST WARM NOSE AROUND 1 DEG C THOUGH
DOES SUGGEST AT A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 850-765MB. THIS
DEPICTION CLOSEST TO THE 12Z GFS WHILE 12Z NAM APPEARED TOO WARM
WITH THE WARM NOSE. DID NOTE THAT MHX 00Z SOUNDING HAD A WARM NOSE
AROUND 7 DEG C. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW AROUND THE
APPROACHING SFC LOW...THIS POCKET OF WARM AIR WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE
EAST INTO AT LEAST THE COASTAL PLAIN...SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT...KEEPING PRECIP ALL RAIN.
QUESTION ONE: HOW FAR WEST WILL THIS WARMER AIR REACH? BASED ON LOW
LEVEL STREAMLINES...THE WARMER AIR IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL MAKE IT
AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY ONE...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
THUS COULD SEE WARM NOSE ALOFT STRENGTHEN A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DID DEPICT DECENT MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN
VICINITY OF THE PARENT HIGH WHICH SUGGEST THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN
ANCHORED A BIT LONGER THAN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS (WHICH PUSHED THE
PARENT HIGH WILL OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING). THUS...CAD CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
THUS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE NW PIEDMONT WITH PRECIP RATES
DICTATING DOMINATE P-TYPE(HEAVIER RATES FAVOR SNOW AND SLEET,
LIGHTER AMOUNTS FREEZING RAIN).
AFTER 06Z...APPEARS THAT WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE AS MID LEVEL CYCLONE TAKES
SHAPE OVER CENTRAL SC. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP RATES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DURING THIS
TIME...PARTIAL THICKNESSES REMAIN IN THE WINTRY MIX PORTION OF THE
NOMOGRAM WHILE THE RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A FAIRLY DEEP
ISOTHERMAL LAYER (FAVOR SNOW) WITH THE GFS AND NAM MAINTAINING A
PROMINENT WARM NOSE (ESPECIALLY THE NAM AT 4 DEG C). WITH THE NEAR
SURFACE AIR MASS STILL DICTATED BY THE CHILLY PARENT HIGH AND AN
INCREASE IN PRECIP RATES AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT A COMBINATION OF
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREA. SINCE
PRECIP WILL BE MIXED...THIS WILL CUT BACK ON ANY ONE P-TYPE
ACCUMULATING TO OUTRAGEOUS AMOUNTS. IF SNOW WERE TO
PREDOMINATE...COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES OCCUR.
CONVERSELY...IF IT WERE ALL FREEZING RAIN...ICE ACCRUAL A QUARTER TO
A HALF INCH PROBABLE. SINCE A MIX EXPECTED...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TO
RANGE FROM A TRACE ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE ADVISORY TO 2-3
INCHES WITH POCKETS OF 4 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. ICE ACCRUAL
APPROACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE WARNING AREA...TRENDING TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE ADVISORY. EVEN ON THE FRINGES
OUTSIDE OF ADVISORY (NORTHERN MOORE...LEE...WESTERN AND NORTHERN
WAKE AND WESTERN FRANKLIN)...A POCKET OR TWO OF LIGHT GLAZE POSSIBLE
BUT LIMITED EFFECTS SUGGEST KEEPING THIS AREA OUT FO TEH ADVISORY
FOR NOW.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OF DEFORMATION OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MODEL/OBSERVED SOUNDING THERMAL
PROFILES...POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW FRIDAY MORNING
OVER SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT...MAINLY WESTERN SECTIONS....AS MID-
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE LIFTS NE OVER COASTAL CAROLINA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
SAT/SAT NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS WILL PREVAIL SAT/SAT NIGHT AS
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT 39-44F.
SUN/SUN NIGHT: A SHEAR AXIS WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUN AFT/EVE...AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO SAT IN THE MID
60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
EXPECT A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE
BY MID NEXT WEEK (WED/THU) IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE EAST CONUS. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOISING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PIEDMONT WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS (FROM THE NORTHEAST)
WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 35KTS WILL OCCUR.
THIS SAME WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION INTO
CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL OCCUR AT KFAY AND
KRWI WHILE A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET WILL OCCUR AT KRDU WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIAD TERMINALS...A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. PRECIP INTENSITIES WILL DRIVE
PRECIPITATION TYPE. DURING HEAVIER PRECIP RATES EXPECT SLEET AND
SNOW. DURING LIGHTER RATES...FREEZING RAIN WILL DOMINATE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A DECENT ICE COATING ON EXPOSED OBJECTS WITH SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION AS HIGH AS 3-4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
EXIT OUR REGION. N-NW WINDS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR...LEADING TO
CLEARING SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ007-021>023-
038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ008>010-
024-025-039-040-073-074.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1229 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND BLSN SHOULD END BY 20Z...WITH JUST SOME
DRIFTING THEREAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.
EARLIER THIS MORNING A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
RECEIVED REPORTS FROM OTTER TAIL LAW ENFORCEMENT THAT RAIN WAS
FALLING. ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA...BUT
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BAND HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO WILL CANCEL EARLY.
COLD FRONT AT 09 UTC WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM ROSEAU TO
DETROIT LAKES TO WAHPETON AND IT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING AT TIMES FROM 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH 15 UTC AS RAP SHOWS 925 HPA FLOW UP TO 35
KTS. THEREAFTER...GRADIENTS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WILL KEEP BLOWING SNOW MENTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS THIS AREA RECEIVED SOME FRESH SNOW
LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...BLOWING NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE ELSEWHERE. SOME DRIFTING STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST/WEST ROADWAYS.
DESPITE INCREASING SOLAR...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WELL BELOW FREEZING SO ANY
MELTING AND SUBSEQUENT PUDDLES FROM YESTERDAY WILL ICE OVER AND
RESULT IN SLICK CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR ABERDEEN
SD AROUND 12 UTC SATURDAY...SO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT NOCTURNAL COOLING. LOWS LIKELY TO DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHWEST IA. WILL START TO SEE
SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY WITH THE
925 TO 800 HPA LAYER INCREASING 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGHS
ACROSS EASTERN ND TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
NORTHWEST ANGLE. ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER SURFACE
TROUGH PASSAGE. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE LOW RISE TO
BETWEEN 0 AND +4 C ON SUNDAY...SO EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NEAR ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONTINUED
TO KEEP MONDAY FAIRLY WARM WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT FASTER ON BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN INTO
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH DIGS DOWN...BUT THE
NORTHERN BRANCH SHOULD HELP BRING DOWN ANOTHER COLD AIR SURGE FOR
TUESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF ONLY SMALL POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
AND WILL ADJUST LATER AS NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
BLSN CONTINUES TO REDUCE VSBY TO IFR VICINITY KGFK WITH POCKETS OF
-SN AFFECTING KBJI AND KFAR. NNW WINDS OVER 20 KTS SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON...FIRST AT KDVL THEN TO THE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL REGION WIDE FROM LATE AFTERNOON ON AS WINDS EASE TO BELOW 10
KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1020 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 30KT AT TIMES IN THE
VALLEY...COUPLED WITH SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS IS CREATING
REDUCED VSBYS LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
VALLEY. THEREFORE...WILL ADD SOME BLOWING SNOW FURTHER SOUTH
UNTIL 19Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.
EARLIER THIS MORNING A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
RECEIVED REPORTS FROM OTTER TAIL LAW ENFORCEMENT THAT RAIN WAS
FALLING. ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA...BUT
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BAND HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO WILL CANCEL EARLY.
COLD FRONT AT 09 UTC WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM ROSEAU TO
DETROIT LAKES TO WAHPETON AND IT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING AT TIMES FROM 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH 15 UTC AS RAP SHOWS 925 HPA FLOW UP TO 35
KTS. THEREAFTER...GRADIENTS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WILL KEEP BLOWING SNOW MENTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS THIS AREA RECEIVED SOME FRESH SNOW
LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...BLOWING NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE ELSEWHERE. SOME DRIFTING STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST/WEST ROADWAYS.
DESPITE INCREASING SOLAR...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WELL BELOW FREEZING SO ANY
MELTING AND SUBSEQUENT PUDDLES FROM YESTERDAY WILL ICE OVER AND
RESULT IN SLICK CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR ABERDEEN
SD AROUND 12 UTC SATURDAY...SO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT NOCTURNAL COOLING. LOWS LIKELY TO DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHWEST IA. WILL START TO SEE
SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY WITH THE
925 TO 800 HPA LAYER INCREASING 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGHS
ACROSS EASTERN ND TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
NORTHWEST ANGLE. ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER SURFACE
TROUGH PASSAGE. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE LOW RISE TO
BETWEEN 0 AND +4 C ON SUNDAY...SO EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NEAR ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONTINUED
TO KEEP MONDAY FAIRLY WARM WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT FASTER ON BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN INTO
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH DIGS DOWN...BUT THE
NORTHERN BRANCH SHOULD HELP BRING DOWN ANOTHER COLD AIR SURGE FOR
TUESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF ONLY SMALL POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
AND WILL ADJUST LATER AS NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
ON BALANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
VALLEY AIRFIELDS LIKELY TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS MORNING AND AT KBJI
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
915 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
NO CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. WE ARE GETTING SOME BLOWING SNOW IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY...BUT 925MB WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BELOW
25KT BY 18Z...SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY ISSUES HERE. OTHERWISE...A
COOL DAY EXPECTED WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.
EARLIER THIS MORNING A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
RECEIVED REPORTS FROM OTTER TAIL LAW ENFORCEMENT THAT RAIN WAS
FALLING. ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA...BUT
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BAND HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO WILL CANCEL EARLY.
COLD FRONT AT 09 UTC WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM ROSEAU TO
DETROIT LAKES TO WAHPETON AND IT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING AT TIMES FROM 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH 15 UTC AS RAP SHOWS 925 HPA FLOW UP TO 35
KTS. THEREAFTER...GRADIENTS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WILL KEEP BLOWING SNOW MENTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS THIS AREA RECEIVED SOME FRESH SNOW
LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...BLOWING NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE ELSEWHERE. SOME DRIFTING STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST/WEST ROADWAYS.
DESPITE INCREASING SOLAR...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WELL BELOW FREEZING SO ANY
MELTING AND SUBSEQUENT PUDDLES FROM YESTERDAY WILL ICE OVER AND
RESULT IN SLICK CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR ABERDEEN
SD AROUND 12 UTC SATURDAY...SO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT NOCTURNAL COOLING. LOWS LIKELY TO DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHWEST IA. WILL START TO SEE
SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY WITH THE
925 TO 800 HPA LAYER INCREASING 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGHS
ACROSS EASTERN ND TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
NORTHWEST ANGLE. ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER SURFACE
TROUGH PASSAGE. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE LOW RISE TO
BETWEEN 0 AND +4 C ON SUNDAY...SO EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NEAR ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONTINUED
TO KEEP MONDAY FAIRLY WARM WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT FASTER ON BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN INTO
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH DIGS DOWN...BUT THE
NORTHERN BRANCH SHOULD HELP BRING DOWN ANOTHER COLD AIR SURGE FOR
TUESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF ONLY SMALL POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
AND WILL ADJUST LATER AS NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
ON BALANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
VALLEY AIRFIELDS LIKELY TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS MORNING AND AT KBJI
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
650 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE TO MATCH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ADDED SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES THROUGH 15 UTC GIVEN RECENT
ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.
EARLIER THIS MORNING A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
RECEIVED REPORTS FROM OTTER TAIL LAW ENFORCEMENT THAT RAIN WAS
FALLING. ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA...BUT
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BAND HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO WILL CANCEL EARLY.
COLD FRONT AT 09 UTC WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM ROSEAU TO
DETROIT LAKES TO WAHPETON AND IT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING AT TIMES FROM 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH 15 UTC AS RAP SHOWS 925 HPA FLOW UP TO 35
KTS. THEREAFTER...GRADIENTS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WILL KEEP BLOWING SNOW MENTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS THIS AREA RECEIVED SOME FRESH SNOW
LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...BLOWING NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE ELSEWHERE. SOME DRIFTING STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST/WEST ROADWAYS.
DESPITE INCREASING SOLAR...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WELL BELOW FREEZING SO ANY
MELTING AND SUBSEQUENT PUDDLES FROM YESTERDAY WILL ICE OVER AND
RESULT IN SLICK CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR ABERDEEN
SD AROUND 12 UTC SATURDAY...SO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT NOCTURNAL COOLING. LOWS LIKELY TO DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHWEST IA. WILL START TO SEE
SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY WITH THE
925 TO 800 HPA LAYER INCREASING 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGHS
ACROSS EASTERN ND TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
NORTHWEST ANGLE. ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER SURFACE
TROUGH PASSAGE. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE LOW RISE TO
BETWEEN 0 AND +4 C ON SUNDAY...SO EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NEAR ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONTINUED
TO KEEP MONDAY FAIRLY WARM WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT FASTER ON BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN INTO
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH DIGS DOWN...BUT THE
NORTHERN BRANCH SHOULD HELP BRING DOWN ANOTHER COLD AIR SURGE FOR
TUESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF ONLY SMALL POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
AND WILL ADJUST LATER AS NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
ON BALANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
VALLEY AIRFIELDS LIKELY TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS MORNING AND AT KBJI
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.
EARLIER THIS MORNING A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
RECEIVED REPORTS FROM OTTER TAIL LAW ENFORCEMENT THAT RAIN WAS
FALLING. ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA...BUT
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BAND HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO WILL CANCEL EARLY.
COLD FRONT AT 09 UTC WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM ROSEAU TO
DETROIT LAKES TO WAHPETON AND IT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING AT TIMES FROM 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH 15 UTC AS RAP SHOWS 925 HPA FLOW UP TO 35
KTS. THEREAFTER...GRADIENTS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WILL KEEP BLOWING SNOW MENTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS THIS AREA RECEIVED SOME FRESH SNOW
LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...BLOWING NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE ELSEWHERE. SOME DRIFTING STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST/WEST ROADWAYS.
DESPITE INCREASING SOLAR...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WELL BELOW FREEZING SO ANY
MELTING AND SUBSEQUENT PUDDLES FROM YESTERDAY WILL ICE OVER AND
RESULT IN SLICK CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR ABERDEEN
SD AROUND 12 UTC SATURDAY...SO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT NOCTURNAL COOLING. LOWS LIKELY TO DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHWEST IA. WILL START TO SEE
SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY WITH THE
925 TO 800 HPA LAYER INCREASING 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGHS
ACROSS EASTERN ND TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
NORTHWEST ANGLE. ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER SURFACE
TROUGH PASSAGE. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE LOW RISE TO
BETWEEN 0 AND +4 C ON SUNDAY...SO EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NEAR ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONTINUED
TO KEEP MONDAY FAIRLY WARM WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT FASTER ON BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN INTO
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH DIGS DOWN...BUT THE
NORTHERN BRANCH SHOULD HELP BRING DOWN ANOTHER COLD AIR SURGE FOR
TUESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF ONLY SMALL POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
AND WILL ADJUST LATER AS NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
MIXED BAG OF CIGS BUT IN GENERAL A PERIOD OF IFR/LOW END MVFR CIGS
BEHIND COLD FRONT ALONG WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 25 KTS.
THESE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO FARGO AND BEMIDJI THRU THE EVE.
CLEARING WILL THEN PROCEED SOUTHEAST FROM SE SASK/FAR SW MANITOBA
FRI MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...BUT HOW FAST IS QUESTIONABLE.
ATTM WENT WITH GFS IDEA WITH PRETTY GOOD SURGE OF DRYING MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND 12Z-18Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1155 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE H85 COLD
POCKET/HIGH RH FIELD IN CONJUNCTION WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WORK TOGETHER TO MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG PERSIST IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AND WILL MENTION THIS AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO ONGOING/PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
KBIS WSR-88D INDICATES LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THE LATEST HRRR / RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TOWARDS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE 00Z BISMARCK SOUNDING CAME IN WARMER THAN
MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING...SO WILL KEEP THE MIX IN PLACE.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR ANY SPECIAL STATEMENTS REGARDING
THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
AREA RADARS EARLY THIS EVENING SHOW A DECREASING TREND IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. SHORT TERM MODELS (HRRR / RAP) SUGGEST MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH WILL END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...HOWEVER ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
COULD DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. WILL MONITOR TRENDS...BUT WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH
STILL ABOVE FREEZING...DECIDED TO LET ALL HEADLINES EXPIRE FOR NOW
AND NOT EXTEND THEM INTO ANY NEW LOCATIONS. MADE SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS TO CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND AMOUNT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. QUITE A FEW
REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL TODAY. RECENT RUNS OF MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP MORE
ON THE PRECIPITATION TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE...AND REALLY HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. LAST FEW RADAR SCANS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED
REFLECTIVITIES FROM AROUND KENMARE AND SHERWOOD TO RUGBY. THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY. PROBABLY SHOULD BE A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY SLEET AND PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN SLOW TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH...SO LITTLE IF
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BUT WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME
AND HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE ADVISORY.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING OVER THE AREA WILL DROP SOUTH BRINGING
COLD AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL
BE MUCH COLDER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS DRY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
AFTER A COOL DAY FRIDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION...THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TO
ALL OF THE DAKOTAS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING HOW MUCH THE
WARM AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST CAN SCOUR OUT THE EXITING ARCTIC
DOME. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP JUST BELOW ZERO FROM
BOTTINEAU TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
SOUTHWEST. A NICE WARM-UP SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE 40S...WITH 20S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
JAMES VALLEY.
SEASONAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE
TEENS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY TO THE 20S WEST.
MILD WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S CENTRAL TO AROUND 50 SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: THE WESTERN RIDGE IS INTERRUPTED BRIEFLY
OVER NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
RIDGE AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION - MAINLY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS A LARGE
SWATH OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AERODROMES...WHILE
KISN AND KMOT ARE ADVERTISING NEAR/AROUND VFR CONDITIONS. THE
TREND THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE CONTINUED MVFR CIGS WITH
SOME SCATTERING OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE 15Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY PERIOD. HOWEVER ANOTHER SLUG OF MVFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...KISN/KDIK...BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PROGRESS INTO KMOT/KBIS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
142 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERN STORM MAY GRAZE THE VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA BORDER LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. MILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SYSTEM MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COLD AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...
NO REAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BEEF UP SKY
GRIDS FOR CIRRUS CANOPY ACROSS THE E THIS EVENING PER IR IMAGERY AND
OBS. LATEST HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM JUST TO S AND E OF CWA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
NOT REALLY A LOT OF CHANGE WITH REGARD TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN A
GENERAL SENSE...WITH REGARD TO THE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST INFO FROM 12Z NWP RUNS. STILL APPEARS THAT
THE FORECAST AREA ONLY GETS A GLANCING BRUSH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
FIRST...REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES. THE CONSENSUS HAS BEEN A
LEAN TOWARDS THE OP GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
THE NAM THE OUTLIER AND FURTHEST WEST. EVEN THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST WITH AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE AND
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. LARGE
SCALE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH CAROLINA
AROUND 12Z FRI...AND ONLY BRUSHES OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 280K-290K SFC/S ALL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
OVER CENTRAL VA AND POINTS FURTHER SE. ALSO APPEARS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS MAIN DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOC WITH 850MB AND 700MB
LOWS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. ALL THIS TO SAY...NOT FINDING ANY
REAL DECENT SOURCES OF DYNAMIC AND/OR SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE CWA.
CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM QPF OUTPUT IS IN SUPPORT...KEEPING
MEASURABLE QPF JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA. OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS ALSO
KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY. LATEST HRRR RUNS BRING SOME PRECIP
RIGHT UP TO THE WYOMING/MCDOWELL COUNTY AREAS OF WEST VIRGINIA.
SO...IN THE END...NO REAL DRASTIC CHANGES WITH POPS ALONG OUR SE
BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FRIDAY TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH I DID ALLOW LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE BKW AREA WHICH
IS A BIT OF AN INCREASE FROM PREV SHIFT. INHERITED MINS FROM PREV
SHIFT STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. STILL
EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY SLEET TO BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOR THE WEST VIRGINIA ZONES ROUGHLY
MCDOWELL COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. THE
VIRGINIA COUNTIES MAY REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. EVEN WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIP TONIGHT OR
EARLY TOMORROW...A HEAVY FREEZING MIST IS POSSIBLE ON AFOREMENTIONED
UPSLOPE SFC FLOW WHICH COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN A GLAZE. WILL LEAVE
FREEZING MIST/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WORDING IN HWO BUT HAVE ELECTED TO
NOT HOIST ANY HIGHLIGHTS.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS SEEING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES AT 18Z AND ENDED BY 21Z AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
NORTH WITH DEPARTING SFC LOW OFF TO THE EAST...WHICH SCOURS OUT ANY
REMAINING LLVL MOISTURE. TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S STILL
ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FROM PREV FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE REGION BETWEEN SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH WEAK
WINDS...SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATION NIGHT. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE
OF MOS GUIDANCE LOWS. A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NAM IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE GFS
AND ECMWF. WILL LAG SOME VERY SMALL POPS BEHIND THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NAM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD...WITH RIDGE REBUILDING
OVER THE U.S. AND CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND DEEPENING L/W TROUGH IN THE
E.
THE MAIN FCST ISSUE THIS PERIOD IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH MID STREAM
ENERGY AS S/W TROUGHS IN THE NRN AND MID STREAMS MOVE SEWD IN
CONCERT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT. THE GFS SHOWS A
POSITIVE TILT MID STREAM TROUGH THAT THE NRN STREAM BASICALLY FALLS
INTO...GENERATING A FLAT WAVE AT THE SFC. THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO
ITS LARGE SYSTEM SOLN...AS THE MID STREAM S/W CLOSES
OFF...GENERATING MORE VIGOROUS CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SFC.
THE GFS FLAT WAVE SOLN WOULD ENTAIL A SFC LOW TRACK FASTER AND
FARTHER S AND E...ALLOWING THE COLD AIR TO POUR SWD INTO THE AREA
WED WITH ANAFRONT PRECIPITATION. THE SLOWER...DEEPER AND FARTHER N
AND W TRACK OF THE ECMWFHIRES SFC LOW WOULD PUMP WARM AIR INTO THE
AREA TUE NT INTO WED...BEFORE TRACKING RIGHT OVER THE AREA WED
AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR WOULD THEN POUR SEWD INTO THE AREA WED
WEDNESDAY NT...AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD PULLS OUT.
DRIER...COLDER AIR THEN CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK IN EITHER CASE.
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AND WPC...A LITTLE BIAS CORRECTED
ECMWFHIRES ALSO BLENDED IN. THE FCST FOLLOWS WPC COMPROMISE...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY RAIN INCREASING WED NT AND CONTINUING
THU...FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCE FOR SHOW SHOWERS THU8 NT INTO FRI.
LASTLY...MON AND TUE LOOK DRY AND MILD AHEAD OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL KEEP BKW IN MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 15Z
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20KT RANGE. THESE GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN AS THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 03/07/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/50
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1145 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
NORTHERN PORTION OF PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED AS EXPECTED...AND HAVE
ALLOWED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHEAST TO EXPIRE AT 14Z.
UNFORTUNATELY...ALTHOUGH FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WAS NOT THAT
EXTENSIVE...DRIFTING SNOW YESTERDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCED A LAYER OF ICE
ON UNTREATED ROADS THAT WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF MELTING TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL THROUGH 20S THROUGH THE DAY.
HAVE REWORKED POPS A LITTLE FOR THIS MORNING...AS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAND BEGINNING TO REACH THE GROUND IN A FEW AREAS. DO NOT EXPECT
THIS BAND TO AMOUNT TO MUCH...BUT AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 COULD SEE A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO. MORNING MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULT AGREEING ON
WHETHER PRECIP WILL BECOME HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED. HRRR AND NAM ARE
LARGELY DRY...WHILE RAP PRODUCES UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE LATTER
SEEMS OVERDONE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS HOWEVER...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH DRIER THINKING FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING IN THE 30S...WILL FALL INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY.
CURRENTLY SEEING A LIGHT AREA OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
STATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS OVERHEAD. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS...BUT IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE THIS MORNING ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE
THIS MORNING WOULD EITHER BE LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. AS
WE HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...AND A WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE INTERACTION
OF THIS FRONT AND WAVE COULD ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO
INCREASE SOME SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE HI RES MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRY
SOLUTION...SHOWING THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS. ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL WOULD INITIALLY BE
RAIN OR SLEET...BEFORE COLD AIR MOVES IN AND CHANGES THINGS TO LIGHT
SNOW. BUT AGAIN...NOT SURE WE EVEN SEE ANYTHING...AND IF WE DO
AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY A COATING OF SNOW.
WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...15
TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SOME MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WINDS ARE PROBABLY TOO LIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS...WITH DRIFTING SNOW BEING THE MAIN POTENTIAL
ISSUE. SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY TO PARTLY
CLEAR BY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE ON
LOWS...MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO...WITH A FEW SPOTS
POTENTIALLY AROUND OR JUST BELOW ZERO FROM BROOKINGS INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. WITH THE NORTHERLY BREEZE...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO
THE 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON TEMPERATURES...AND PRECIP CHANCES
ON TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THROTTLING BACK TEMPERATURES.
ON SATURDAY...WARM FRONT BEGINS TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AND WITH DEEP SNOW COVER
ACROSS THE EAST...SIDED WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO ISOTHERMAL FROM 925
HPA. MODELS SHOW A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH IF THICK ENOUGH COULD HAMPER WARMING SOMEWHAT. FRONT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE WELL TO AREAS THAT
HAVE LIMITED SNOW COVER...BUT IN AREAS FURTHER EAST FOLLOWED SNOW
CLIMATOLOGY FOR HIGHS WHICH WAS VERY CLOSE TO GOING FORECAST. STILL
APPEARS TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS HANGING AROUND ON SUNDAY
AS WELL THAT COULD LIMIT WARMING SOME.
WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT SNOW PACK TO DWINDLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH 925
HPA TEMPS WARMING INTO THE TEENS...COULD BE A NICE MILD DAY ACROSS
THE REGION...THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION OF FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE IS CERTAINLY A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT...AND WITH
MELTING SNOW PACK SHOULD BE PLENTY OF NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE TO LEAD
TO SATURATION. QUESTION THOUGH AS TO WHETHER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO LIMIT
FOG POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED SOME
WATCHING.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CRITICAL IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE. AS OF RIGHT NOW..APPEARS
AS THOUGH MOISTURE WOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH BRIEF SATURATION.
THEREAFTER...APPEARS AS THOUGH ANOTHER WARMING TREND
ENSUES...HOWEVER...LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS IN THE EAST DUE TO DEEP
AND LIKELY REMAINING SNOW PACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
MVFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
THOUGH SOME BREAKS TO SCATTERED DECK BELOW 3KFT ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
THROUGH 00Z-02Z...THOUGH DRY LAYER BETWEEN STRATUS AND MID CLOUD
DECK ABOVE 6-8KFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. NEVERTHELESS HAVE
ADDED A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES TO KSUX TAF 21Z-00Z...MAINLY TO
INDICATE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF ANY PRECIP THREAT...THOUGH WIDESPREAD
OR PROLONGED VISIBILITY REDUCTION IS NOT EXPECTED FROM ANY PRECIP.
LINGERING MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST EAST OF I-29 IS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AS NORTH WINDS GUST NEAR OR
ABOVE 25KTS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
852 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
NORTHERN PORTION OF PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED AS EXPECTED...AND HAVE
ALLOWED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHEAST TO EXPIRE AT 14Z.
UNFORTUNATELY...ALTHOUGH FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WAS NOT THAT
EXTENSIVE...DRIFTING SNOW YESTERDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCED A LAYER OF ICE
ON UNTREATED ROADS THAT WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF MELTING TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL THROUGH 20S THROUGH THE DAY.
HAVE REWORKED POPS A LITTLE FOR THIS MORNING...AS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAND BEGINNING TO REACH THE GROUND IN A FEW AREAS. DO NOT EXPECT
THIS BAND TO AMOUNT TO MUCH...BUT AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 COULD SEE A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO. MORNING MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULT AGREEING ON
WHETHER PRECIP WILL BECOME HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED. HRRR AND NAM ARE
LARGELY DRY...WHILE RAP PRODUCES UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE LATTER
SEEMS OVERDONE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS HOWEVER...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH DRIER THINKING FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING IN THE 30S...WILL FALL INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY.
CURRENTLY SEEING A LIGHT AREA OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
STATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS OVERHEAD. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS...BUT IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE THIS MORNING ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE
THIS MORNING WOULD EITHER BE LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. AS
WE HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...AND A WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE INTERACTION
OF THIS FRONT AND WAVE COULD ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO
INCREASE SOME SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE HI RES MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRY
SOLUTION...SHOWING THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS. ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL WOULD INITIALLY BE
RAIN OR SLEET...BEFORE COLD AIR MOVES IN AND CHANGES THINGS TO LIGHT
SNOW. BUT AGAIN...NOT SURE WE EVEN SEE ANYTHING...AND IF WE DO
AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY A COATING OF SNOW.
WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...15
TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SOME MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WINDS ARE PROBABLY TOO LIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS...WITH DRIFTING SNOW BEING THE MAIN POTENTIAL
ISSUE. SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY TO PARTLY
CLEAR BY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE ON
LOWS...MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO...WITH A FEW SPOTS
POTENTIALLY AROUND OR JUST BELOW ZERO FROM BROOKINGS INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. WITH THE NORTHERLY BREEZE...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO
THE 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON TEMPERATURES...AND PRECIP CHANCES
ON TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THROTTLING BACK TEMPERATURES.
ON SATURDAY...WARM FRONT BEGINS TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AND WITH DEEP SNOW COVER
ACROSS THE EAST...SIDED WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO ISOTHERMAL FROM 925
HPA. MODELS SHOW A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH IF THICK ENOUGH COULD HAMPER WARMING SOMEWHAT. FRONT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE WELL TO AREAS THAT
HAVE LIMITED SNOW COVER...BUT IN AREAS FURTHER EAST FOLLOWED SNOW
CLIMATOLOGY FOR HIGHS WHICH WAS VERY CLOSE TO GOING FORECAST. STILL
APPEARS TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS HANGING AROUND ON SUNDAY
AS WELL THAT COULD LIMIT WARMING SOME.
WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT SNOW PACK TO DWINDLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH 925
HPA TEMPS WARMING INTO THE TEENS...COULD BE A NICE MILD DAY ACROSS
THE REGION...THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION OF FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE IS CERTAINLY A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT...AND WITH
MELTING SNOW PACK SHOULD BE PLENTY OF NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE TO LEAD
TO SATURATION. QUESTION THOUGH AS TO WHETHER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO LIMIT
FOG POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED SOME
WATCHING.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CRITICAL IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE. AS OF RIGHT NOW..APPEARS
AS THOUGH MOISTURE WOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH BRIEF SATURATION.
THEREAFTER...APPEARS AS THOUGH ANOTHER WARMING TREND
ENSUES...HOWEVER...LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS IN THE EAST DUE TO DEEP
AND LIKELY REMAINING SNOW PACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT ICING AS WELL THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
GREATEST THREAT OF THIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. COULD
ALSO BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND
KSUX...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE EXACT DEPARTURE TIME OF THE CLOUDS AND THE RETURN TO VFR...SO
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND TRY TO BETTER PIN THAT
DOWN. WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY...GUSTING 20 TO
30 KTS...BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
838 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. LATEST SURFACE OBS
SHOW COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CWA AND CURRENTLY NEAR A
HOHENWALD TO COOKEVILLE LINE. RADAR SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
SPREADING INTO WESTERN ZONES...BUT HRRR INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT MAINLY WEST OF I-65. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
FOR ALL AREAS BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED
SKY COVER AND TEMPS BASED ON OBS WITH REST OF FORECAST GENERALLY
ON TRACK.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT AND
BRING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND LOWERED FLIGHT CATEGORIES. SEVERAL
HOURS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER THE SUN COMES UP SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT FRONTAL PASSAGE VEERING TO THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UNGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 144 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S MOST
LOCATIONS AT EARLY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT EXTENDS DOWN ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER TO NEAR POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI THEN INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.
COLDER TEMPS AND CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
BREAKING OUT IN FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BACK INTO MISSOURI BUT NOT
A LOT AT THIS TIME. STILL CAN SEE SOME SLEET/SNOW ON THE GROUND IN
VISIBLE ACROSS BOOTHEEL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. SNOW AND ICE FIELD
HAS CONTINUED TO ROB THE AIR OF ITS HEAT IN TRYING TO MELT WHATS
ON THE GROUND WHICH HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN IN THESE AREAS. SURFACE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH VERY LIGHT QFP. TEMPS TONIGHT DOWN IN MID
AND UPPER 30S NORTH HALF WITH NEAR 40 SOUTH HALF. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS NOT AS WARM AS TODAY
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AND A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY A SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF BEGINS
TO MOVE THIS WAY AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ROLLS EASTWARD WITH RAIN ADVANCING NORTHWARD
AND INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SYSTEMS
EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1000 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...BACK SIDE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS VERY LIGHT THIS
MORNING AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RADAR ECHOES PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE MORRISTOWN AREA ARE
BARELY REACHING THE SURFACE...WHILE TRI CONTINUES TO REPORT LIGHT
RAIN WITH NO VISBY REDUCTION AT ALL. SURFACE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN
THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES OVER SW VA AND NE TN...WITH 12Z UPPER
AIR PLOTS SHOWING 850 MB TEMPS RUNNING 1 TO 2 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS
THAT AREA. THUS...ONLY SOME LINGERING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO DEAL WITH
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW OFF THE NC COAST WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. LATEST RUC MODEL
INDICATES RAIN ENDING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SHORTLY...AND ALSO ENDING
OVER THE TN-NC LINE BY NOON TO 1 PM EST. FORECAST GRIDS REFLECT THIS
TIMING. PLAN TO UPDATE GRIDS AND WEB PRODUCTS BEFORE NOON...ENDING
RAIN IN MOST AREAS. 12Z OHX SOUNDING SUPPORTS HIGHS REACHING 50S TO
PERHAPS LOWER 60S IN SE TN.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
413 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
ANOTHER WARMUP IS IN STORE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ON TAP.
THEN...A PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO
CENTRAL INDIANA MIDWEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...MORE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON MORNING STRATOCU AND OR PATCHY FOG WITH
THE CONCENTRATION THIS AFTERNOON ON TEMPERATURES.
THE RUC13 925 MILLIBAR RH PROGS SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRATOCU DECK...CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS. IT SUGGESTS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS DECK WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...SO LEFT SOME SKY COVER IN THERE THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH LITTLE ELSEWHERE UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING THEIR DEW POINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THE STRATOCU AND OR FOG WILL HANG AROUND LONGER THAN THAT
WITH HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 925 MILLIBARS. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG ARE
GONE...THERE SHOULD BE SUNNY SKIES WITH MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOWING
A DRY COLUMN AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...PREFER THE WARMER 00Z GFS MOS WHICH IS CLOSE
TO 00Z CONSALL. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S WHICH IS JUST
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SHORT TERM SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO CONFIDENCE IS GOOD REGARDING A BLEND.
MODELS KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BUFKIT SUGGESTS MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
GULF CREATING A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A FRONT SHOULD THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE. WITH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN OVERRUNNING REALLY RAMPS UP AND ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS
FROM THE TOP DOWN AS THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
KENTUCKY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND OBS ARE IMPLYING
QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS AND POSSIBLY AC WILL BE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM. THUS...PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF
WHICH HAS MORE SKY COVER THAN ANY BLEND. DESPITE THIS...PREFER
TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER 00Z GFS ONCE AGAIN AS IT HAS BEEN DOING
BETTER WITH THE RECENT WARMER DAYS. ESPECIALLY PREFER THE WARMER
GFS ON MONDAY WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WE SHOULD SEE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...THERE IS STILL A DECENT
DISCREPANCY IN HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN...WITH THE GFS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING IT IN. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE
GENERALLY TRIED TO GO WITH ONLY ONE PRECIP TYPE IF BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN AGREEMENT AND A MIX IF THEY DIDN/T. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES LOOK LIKE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE WILL ARRIVE BEFORE OR
CONCURRENT WITH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE SO NO EXPECTATION OF
ANYTHING BESIDES RAIN OR SNOW. THUS STARTED OUT ALL RAIN EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH AFTER 6Z...WITH
RAIN OR SNOW COMING SOUTH TO AROUND I-70...AND RAIN SOUTH OF THERE.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALL SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70 WITH A MIX
SOUTH AND ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ITS WAKE. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH. WITH THE GROUND RELATIVELY WARM BEFORE THIS
STARTS FROM HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THINK IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH AND REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 090900Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SAT MAR 8 2014
WITH THE UPDATE WILL BE ADDING AT LEAST SOME MVFR FOG CURRENTLY TO
KLAF AND TO KHUF WITHIN AN HOUR TO ADDRESS CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WITH THOSE SITES TRENDING THAT WAY WILL ALSO ADD SOME TO KBMG AND
KIND BUT A BIT A LATER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF
SITES...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF CEILINGS AROUND 030 IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS. TRAJECTORY OF CLOUD DECK AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA SUGGEST THESE CEILINGS MAY GRAZE THE KHUF TERMINAL AT
TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 091000Z.
SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DIMINISH. LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA...SO WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO 220-240 DEGREES AT 8-10
KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
ANOTHER WARMUP IS IN STORE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ON TAP.
THEN...A PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO
CENTRAL INDIANA MIDWEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...MORE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON MORNING STRATOCU AND OR PATCHY FOG WITH
THE CONCENTRATION THIS AFTERNOON ON TEMPERATURES.
THE RUC13 925 MILLIBAR RH PROGS SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRATOCU DECK...CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS. IT SUGGESTS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS DECK WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...SO LEFT SOME SKY COVER IN THERE THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH LITTLE ELSEWHERE UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING THEIR DEW POINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THE STRATOCU AND OR FOG WILL HANG AROUND LONGER THAN THAT
WITH HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 925 MILLIBARS. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG ARE
GONE...THERE SHOULD BE SUNNY SKIES WITH MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOWING
A DRY COLUMN AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...PREFER THE WARMER 00Z GFS MOS WHICH IS CLOSE
TO 00Z CONSALL. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S WHICH IS JUST
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SHORT TERM SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO CONFIDENCE IS GOOD REGARDING A BLEND.
MODELS KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BUFKIT SUGGESTS MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
GULF CREATING A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A FRONT SHOULD THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE. WITH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN OVERRUNNING REALLY RAMPS UP AND ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS
FROM THE TOP DOWN AS THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
KENTUCKY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND OBS ARE IMPLYING
QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS AND POSSIBLY AC WILL BE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM. THUS...PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF
WHICH HAS MORE SKY COVER THAN ANY BLEND. DESPITE THIS...PREFER
TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER 00Z GFS ONCE AGAIN AS IT HAS BEEN DOING
BETTER WITH THE RECENT WARMER DAYS. ESPECIALLY PREFER THE WARMER
GFS ON MONDAY WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WE SHOULD SEE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
FOCUS OF LONG TERM REMAINS MID WEEK STORM. MODELS ARE TRENDING
FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH MAINLY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
SNOW WEDNESDAY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO TEMPERATURES. ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
REASONABLE BASED ON 850 TEMPS AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED. WILL
INITIALLY SEE A DROP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE RECOVERING AGAIN
BACK INTO THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 090600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF
SITES...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF CEILINGS AROUND 030 IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS. TRAJECTORY OF CLOUD DECK AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA SUGGEST THESE CEILINGS MAY GRAZE THE KHUF TERMINAL AT
TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 091000Z.
SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DIMINISH. LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA...SO WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO 220-240 DEGREES AT 8-10
KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1239 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN THIS WEEK. AFTER A
COOLER DAY SUNDAY...WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE RULE THURSDAY. HOWEVER SEASONAL READINGS WILL RETURN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
ADDED SOME LOW CLOUDS TO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RUC13 SKY COVER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MAIN UPDATE WILL BE TO DROP ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION.
SATELLITE SHOWS A THINNING OUT OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL SECTIONS AND CLEARING WILL SPREAD INTO ALL AREAS LATER
TONIGHT.
NOT SURE ABOUT THE PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS...BUT WITH
LIGHT WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL LEAVE IT IN AS IS FOR NOW.
CONCERNING LOW TEMPERATURES...DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER
NORTHWEST SECTIONS PER RAPID REFRESH MODEL. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE REST OF THE
GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN
BE USED.
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL EXIT SUNDAY MORNING LEAVING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO THE WARMER MAV MOS NUMBERS.
WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH AND A SOUTHWEST WIND. A FRONT WILL
TRY AND WORK SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY BUT SHOULD DO LITTLE MORE
THAN BRING SOME CLOUDS. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
BOOST TEMPERATURES. WENT WARMER THAN MOS GIVEN HOW MOS HAS PERFORMED
RECENTLY IN WARMER REGIMES.
FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT WITH A SURFACE LOW WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST FEEL THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY.
WITH COLDER AIR NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY INTO THE AREA /DUE TO THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW/ CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
FOCUS OF LONG TERM REMAINS MID WEEK STORM. MODELS ARE TRENDING
FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH MAINLY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
SNOW WEDNESDAY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO TEMPERATURES. ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
REASONABLE BASED ON 850 TEMPS AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED. WILL
INITIALLY SEE A DROP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE RECOVERING AGAIN
BACK INTO THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 090600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF
SITES...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF CEILINGS AROUND 030 IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS. TRAJECTORY OF CLOUD DECK AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA SUGGEST THESE CEILINGS MAY GRAZE THE KHUF TERMINAL AT
TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 091000Z.
SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DIMINISH. LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA...SO WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO 220-240 DEGREES AT 8-10
KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...JH/MK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
357 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND TODAY. TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE EARLY MONDAY...AND ONE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...THESE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF
SNOW OR RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING
SHUNTED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
LIGHT SNOWFALL EXITING SOUTH OF CAPE COD DURING THE 10Z-16Z TIME
FRAME...LEAVING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ME/NH ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING MARK IN
SOUTHERN AREAS DESPITE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE IS INITIALLY VERY
DRY AT THE ONSET...WITH SUBLIMATION LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT AS ANY -SHSN ATTEMPT TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY.
ALLOWED FOR A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE HIGHER MET POPS AND THE DRIER
MAV READINGS AS THIS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM CROSSES THE
NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR THE EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION MON NIGHT WITH SCT SNW
SHWRS. ON TUE IN ITS WAKE A DRIER DOWNSLOPING NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
ALL EYES ARE ON THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW THAT MODELS ARE KEYING ON FOR LATE WED INTO THU. MODELS ARE
BACK INTO CONCENSUS OF FAVORING THE PHASING OF THE NRN/SRN STREAM
ENERGY THAT WOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. THE TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL FOR AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL AND ALSO
ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. BUT
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON THE POSSIBLE SCENERIO OF THE FAVORED
EURO. BASED ON THE SUPERBLEND GUID AND CONFIDENCE...WE WILL INCREASE
POPS TO LKLY FOR LATE WED INTO THU.
THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT BY THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY CONTINUING TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM...
MVFR CONDS PSBL IN -SHSN MON NIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDS
PSBL LATE WED INTO THU.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR SEAS WILL REMAIN UP AS 5 AND 6 FOOTERS
CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY WED. WED
NIGHT AND THU THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PSBL GALE FORCE WINDS
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL STORM.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
JC/RAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
522 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES DONWSTREAM FROM A RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. AT THE
SFC...SRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN LOW PRES NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AND A RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. IR LOOP SHOWED MID CLOUDS
INCREASING WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WARM FRONT INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS. RADARS AND SFC INDICATED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...NW OF THUNDERBAY...WHERE 285K-295K ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS
STRONGEST.
TODAY...MODELS ALONG WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
THE LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN BUT MAY BRUSH THE NRN KEWEENAW
AND THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...MID CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY ALONG WITH THE SW WINDS. EXPECT ENOUGH
INSOLATION ALONG WITH THE WAA TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY LINGER IN THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE EAST WHERE THICKER CLOUDS PREVAIL.
TONIGHT...AFTER THE NRN ONTARIO MOVES OFF TOT HE EAST...THE TIGHTEST
PORTION OF THE 850-700 TEMP GRADIENT WILL LINGER JUST TO THE N OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK FGEN DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHRTWV MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY
DEVELOP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AGAIN
FOR THE KEWEENAW. WITH AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER...SOME FREEZING RAIN
MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...IF ANY PERSISTENT PCPN DOES
DEVELOP...EVAPORATIVE COOLIN...WOULD LOWER TEMPS FOR MAINLY
SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH/S STRENGTH SEEMS TO BE
WAVERING. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PERIODS OF WARM UP FROM PACIFIC AIR
WORKING EAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. CLIPPER SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WARM UPS WILL GENERALLY
TRACK ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BRING A COUPLE
DAY PERIODS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THEM.
THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AT 12Z MONDAY
AND SLIDING THROUGH ONTARIO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. WITH THIS TRACK...EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING ARE LOCATED. THIS TRACK AND EXPECTED DRY SLOT MOVING
THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH
DOES MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
WEST. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WEST AND KEWEENAW. WIND GUSTS OVER THE WEST WILL DEPEND ON
MIXING AND THAT MAY BE LIMITED WITH THE COOLING FROM THE ICE ON THE
WESTERN LAKE. THAT BEING SAID...DID TREND VALUES UP SEVERAL KNOTS IN
THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH MOST SHOWING HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE GEM
(NH/REGIONAL) CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PARTS OF UPPER
MICHIGAN. WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THEY ARE INDICATING THROUGH
THE MORNING...THAT WOULDN/T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF
AND IT/S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE VERY CONSISTENT (ONLY ABOUT A 4 DEGREE
SPREAD FROM THE 51 MEMBERS) ON HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
COLDEST TEMPS...BUT THAT IS LARGELY TIED TO IT KEEPING LOW CLOUDS
WITH THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT ABOUT 120MI FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. FELT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON HIGHS
AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS. HIGHEST TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...WHERE THE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
DOWNSLOPING TO WARM TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S AND NEAR 50. IF KIMT/KESC
REACH 50 DEGREES...IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE MID NOVEMBER
(17TH).
WITH THE LOW SHIFTING EAST INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL FILTER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA AND LEAD TO A COOLER DAY ON
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COLDER AND THEN WITH THE
MAIN COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SHOULD SEE TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE AROUND -21C (25C COLDER THAN MONDAY) AND THAT SHOULD ONLY
PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE TEENS. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES
BASED OFF THE CONSISTENCY IN THE COLDER HIGHS ON THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS.
DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NORTH TO
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST WINDS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SOME BREAKS
IN THE ICE ON LAKE SUPERIOR IT SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL PROBABLY END UP
TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEING COLDER...SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER SINCE THE
FORCING WILL BE AT THE TOP OF OR ABOVE THE DGZ. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE LOWERS THE
INVERSION AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIKED THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS HANDLING OF THE POPS (LIKELYS IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN) AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.
CLEARING SKIES AND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GEM ARE SHOWING LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. THINK THAT SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PWATS
ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SINCE THE GEM PERFORMS VERY WELL
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...HAVE DROPPED LOWS A GOOD 7-15
DEGREES AND CLOSER TO IT/S VALUES. WITH THE TEMPERATURE FALLING
BELOW ZERO THIS PAST EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WE HAVE PUSHED OUR SUB ZERO DAYS TO 56. THINKING IT WILL
COOL OFF FAST ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO ADD BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO THE SUB ZERO DAYS AND IF THAT OCCURS IT WOULD BREAK THE
RECORD OF 57 DAYS (SET IN 1962-63) AT OUR OFFICE.
WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARMING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 20S EAST AND LOWER 30S WEST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH THE
WAA...SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA ON
THURSDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE CLIPPER THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE BEST PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA LIKE THE LAST TWO SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE COLDER AIR
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND PRODUCE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR
LIGHT SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER UPPER MI WILL SLIDE EAST LATE TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SW WINDS BY SUN MORNING
WITH GUSTS NEARING 20-25KTS BY MIDDAY AT BOTH IWD AND SAW. NOT
EXPECTING LLWS TO BE AN ISSUE AS STRONGEST WSW WINDS TO NEAR 50 KT
BTWN 1.5-2 KFT WILL BE OCCURRING BY LATE SUN MORNING WHEN MIXING AND
GUSTS START OCCURRING AT THE SFC. WAA WILL CAUSE INCREASING MID
CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU PD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
GUSTY SW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. AFTER WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...EXPECT SW WINDS
TO AGAIN INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOUTH OF ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE FCST TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
20 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1202 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION.
CHANCES OVERALL REMAIN LOW AND NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WITH THIS ISSUANCE. SUNDAY NIGHT ONE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS SOME
MOISTENING OF THE DGZ...AND LIFT FROM THE WAVE HERE IN SW LOWER MI.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...I WILL FEATURE LOW POPS FOR THE
REGION NORTH OF A HART TO MOUNT PLEASANT LINE. FURTHER SOUTH...AT
THIS POINT LITTLE OR NO LIFT AROUND TO SUPPORT ADDING POPS.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR MONDAY NIGHT FOR POSSIBLY ADDING
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST. NAM AND HIGH RES EURO KEEP IT
DRY...BUT THE GFS IS SHOWING THE DGZ BECOMING MOIST. THIS IS
RELATED TO MID LEVEL FGEN WITH IS STRONGER WITH THE GFS. I HELD
OFF ON MENTIONING PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE GFS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING...DEWPOINTS ARE ELEVATED
COMPARED TO FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT WE MAY SEE
SOME FOG/STRATUS TRYING TO DEVELOP VERY LATE. NAM AND HRRR MODELS
ARE SHOWING THIS. I ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
IT STILL APPEARS THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...LEAVING SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE PCPN COULD START TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-96 ALONG A REGION OF FGEN. THEN THE PCPN SHOULD EXPAND AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH. THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD
OCCUR...WITH MAINLY SNOW FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. BEING
THE NORTHERN FRINGE SHOULD GIVE THE AREA MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED FOR I-96...UP TO TWO INCHES OVER THE FAR
SE CWA...TOWARD JXN.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM GOES BY THE REST OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE
QUIET. A CLIPPER SYSTEM GOES BY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...BUT THE
BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH...SO IT MAY GO BY DRY.
AFTER A NEAR NORMAL START TO TEMPS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
40...WE WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVE BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU. TEMPS
SHOULD BE BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER...THEN COOLER
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
FOG/STRATUS FORMATION IS A SMALL CONCERN FOR THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE KEPT THIS
THREAT OUT OF THE TAFS. GUIDANCE SHOWS NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
JUST ABOVE THE SFC WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE THE THREAT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY WITH CLOUD BASES AOA 12K FEET.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME RATHER STRONG/GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT
KMKG. THE GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z WITH PERHAPS THE
EXCEPTION OF MKG.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS SEEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES IS PREDICTED FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL MELTING. TEMPERATURES DO COOL
DOWN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL SLOWLY DOWN OR
STOP ANY MELTING. TEMPERATURES THEN TRY TO MODERATE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE SNOWPACK WILL ONLY SLOWLY RELEASE SOME
OF ITS WATER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH LIMITED RUNOFF WATER LEVELS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STABLE THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
418 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE BANK OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE THE CLOUDS AS THE DROP SOUTH INTO SRN NEB. THE BEST
GUESS ON TEMPS TODAY IS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. H800MB TEMPS RISE TO
10C WHICH SUPPORTS UPPER 60S. WARMER AIR RESIDES AT 700MB WHICH
COULD PUSH TEMPS HIGHER. MR. DEEP MIXING MODEL...THE RAP...SHOWS
MIXING HEIGHTS REACHING TO AROUND 750 MB FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE HRRR MODEL WHICH SHOWS MID 70S ALSO.
THESE ARE THE WARMEST MODELS. GIVEN THAT KLBF IS AT 39F AT 330AM
CDT WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS...THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST IN THE ONTARIO WITH WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON . A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SETTING UP NORTHWEST WINDS...STILL LIGHT
THOUGH. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO JUST THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...THEN WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITTING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL SEE LITTLE MOVEMENT INTO MONDAY.
LOOKING FURTHER NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL PUSH ON LAND AND INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY. BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE INFLUENCE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST...WITH LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING OVER WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM IS THE
WARMER SOLUTION...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 13C TO 18C BY 00Z
TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER...YET STILL ANOMALOUSLY WARM. CHECKING STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WERE GENERALLY AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING POTENTIAL TO
AROUND 800MB...AND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ROUTINELY TOO LOW
WITH MIXING HEIGHTS LATELY THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM SEEING DEEP MIXING TO 700MB OR SO. THESE
FACTORS ARE FIRST...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO KEEP
WINDS LIGHT AND NOT HELP WITH MIXING...AND SECOND THINKING THERE
MIGHT BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD LIMIT THE SURFACE WARMING SLIGHTLY. THAT
BEING SAID...STILL THINKING HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S LOOKS GOOD.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST LIFT WITH THE SYSTEM STAYS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK FROM WYOMING
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT THIS SIGNAL SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LOOKING AT MOISTURE IN SOUNDINGS AND
CROSS SECTIONS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE ABOUT 6 HOURS OF POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND AS THE COLUMN DOES NOT SATURATE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT BACKED OFF
ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
TUESDAY MORNING.
THE LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES LOOK TO WANE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND THIS SIGNAL IS BEING SHOWN BY THE
NAM...WITH THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SIGNAL IN THE QPF FIELDS...SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOST AREAS SEEING AT LEAST A FEW HOURS ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAYING SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. MAY
HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING A BIT LONG INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT KEPT LOW END
CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WILL RE-EVALUATE ON UPCOMING
SHIFTS. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT SO IT WILL BEGIN AS RAIN THEN AS THE
COLUMN COOLS AND THE WET BULB STAYS BELOW ZERO THROUGH ALL BUT THE
LOWEST LAYER COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SNOW INTO THE
EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...IF IT DOES EVEN
ACCUMULATE DUE TO THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL BE
FAIRLY STAGNANT...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST PART OF THE COUNTRY
AND A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THIS WILL PUT THE LOCAL
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT COLDER AIR WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT THE PRIMARY ENERGY WILL BE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THAT PARTICULAR
SYSTEM. THEN LOOKING INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG TERM MODELS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL AMPLIFY...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDINESS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT TO BECOME 26014G23KT AFTER 15Z. WEST WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
BY 00Z/10TH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING IS EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THE MIXING TO 725 MB
THE PREVIOUS DAY PER KLBF UA SOUNDING. THIS MIGHT SUPPORT THE LOWER
DEW POINTS SHOWN IN THE GEM REG AND ECM WHICH PUSH RH TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...FOR ABOUT 1 HOUR. THE DEEP VERTICAL MIXING
IS OF LITTLE AVAIL FOR WIND SPEEDS AS THEY FLATTEN OUT TO 15 KT AT
750 MB AND HIGHER. THE GEM AND ECM DO SHOW A BANK OF STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOPING AT THE 500M AGL LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PANHANDLE
WHICH COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA...IF...THE ASSOCIATED SFC
TROF ADVANCES THROUGH THE FCST AREA AS SHOWN BY THE RAP13 MODEL. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE TROF ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
PRODUCES A BANK OF SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST OF 83 AND THEN WEST WINDS
WEST OF 83. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE SHARPNESS OF THE
TROF...TIMING AND THE WINDS SHOWN IN THE GEM AND THE ECM THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH CAN BE CONVERTED TO A WARNING IN MANY AREAS BUT THIS
IS A VERY LOW END WARNING WHICH MIGHT NOT VERIFY GIVEN THE WETNESS
OF THE GROUND AND THE PROPENSITY OF THE SUN TO TRANSPORATE MOISTURE
TO THE AIR. WINDS GUST TO JUST 25 MPH AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY SPORADIC. THE RAP AND HRRR WERE THE BASIS FOR THE WIND GUST
FORECAST WHICH SHOWS THE STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS THE PLATTE VALLEYS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-209.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1126 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP BEHIND THE PASSING FRONTAL SYSTEM...
BUT THEY ARE ON THE WAY. STILL EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND
THEN IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY 17Z SUNDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED
AROUND TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
UNGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/
UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. LATEST SURFACE OBS
SHOW COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CWA AND CURRENTLY NEAR A
HOHENWALD TO COOKEVILLE LINE. RADAR SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
SPREADING INTO WESTERN ZONES...BUT HRRR INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT MAINLY WEST OF I-65. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
FOR ALL AREAS BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED
SKY COVER AND TEMPS BASED ON OBS WITH REST OF FORECAST GENERALLY
ON TRACK.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
451 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AREA RADAR SHOW SOME RAIN STRETCHING MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 WITH A
BROAD AREA OF RAIN BACK TOWARDS VICTORIA. SFC COLD FRONT HAS JUST
PUSHED OFF THE COAST WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S BEHIND IT. UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS HAS 850MB FRONT FROM W OF DFW TO JUST NORTH OF JCT.
SEEMS THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT HAS LED TO RAIN ACTIVITY
OVER SE TX WHICH SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING AS 925-850MB FLOW
WEAKENS. ANALYSIS AT 500MB SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING FROM THE PLAINS
BACK TO THE DESERT SW. WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT OVER
THE S PLAINS WHILE SECOND LOW CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS S
TX. THIS SEEMS TO BE FORCING MODERATE RAIN BACK TO THE SW NEAR
VCT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS DECIDED TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG
THE COAST MAINLY 60/70 PERCENT. 06Z RUN OF HRRR SEEMS TO SUPPORT
THIS IDEA ALONG WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. DO
NOT THINK HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. LOOKS LIKE 1.5
INCH PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL STAY OVER THE GULF. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOP.
BASED ON GFS/ECMWF/NAM 00Z MODEL TRENDS...THINK THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN RAINFALL SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY EXCEPT FOR THE OFFSHORE
AREAS. ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW
DROPPING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
COMING ACROSS C MEXICO ON MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT. THINK STRONGER
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING SO HAVE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS
WITH A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE LOW THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
BE OFF THE GULF COAST BUT STILL HELD ONTO SOME HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. UPPER LOW THEN MOVES ALONG THE N GULF
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING. AGAIN BECOMING LESS
CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT SEEMS THAT THREAT WILL BE
OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. STILL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW AREAS ALONG
THE COAST TO PICK UP A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
GFS/ECMWF STILL ON TRACK WITH NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED
MORNING. NAM LAGS BEHIND BY ABOUT 6 HRS. FORECAST WILL KEEP WITH
CONSISTENT TRENDS OF THE ECMWF/GFS. AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD BE DRY AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGEST WED AFTERNOON
AS 850MB TEMPS DROP SHARPLY DURING THE DAY. MIN TEMPS THUR
MORNING SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S/40S FOR THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRI
INTO SAT TO END THE WEEK. INTRODUCED SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS COMING OFF THE GULF IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO COME TOGETHER WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR NEXT SUNDAY.
39
&&
.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WILL CARRY CAUTION FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT GALVESTON BAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN ITS WAKE. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 56 46 70 53 77 / 30 10 30 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 59 49 71 54 76 / 40 20 30 50 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 53 65 57 70 / 60 20 40 60 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
354 AM PDT Sun Mar 9 2014
.Synopsis...
A stream of Pacific moisture will bring precipitation to the
region today and early Monday, especially for areas north of I-80.
Breezy winds are possible Tuesday. Dry and mild conditions return
for the remainder of the week.
&&
Discussion...
A 1.25-1.5" precipitable water plume (per latest satellite
estimates) is on track to bring precipitation to NorCal next 36
hours. Areas north of I-80 will see the most precip with periods
of rain today into early tomorrow, while areas south may not see
anything until later tonight. At the surface, recent KSMF
aircraft soundings indicate a very dry layer persisting around
800mb. One would expect precip aloft to have a tough time
reaching the surface given this dry layer, yet light rain has
been reported tonight from around Yuba City northward, indicating
more saturated profiles north of KSMF. High-res models have had a
tough time handling this situation as none of them are indicating
any Valley precip until later today (although the HRRR has
trended wetter in recent runs). Meanwhile, the latest radar
mosaic shows this early round of precip waning offshore, with the
more focused precip associated with a frontal band much further
north. All this makes for a complicated precip forecast today
from Redding south. Have opted for a slight chance of rain from
Sac vicinity northward, with better chances in the Redding/Red
Bluff area and a good bet over the mountains.
The action picks up late today into tonight as the trough axis
moves inland and an associated upper-level jetstreak brushes the
region. Closer to the surface, a cold front (most evident in
frontogenesis plots from 850-700mb) pushes southeastward across
NorCal with the moisture plume at its leading edge. The jet
position puts our area in the favorable right entrance region,
while the frontogenesis provides extra dynamics. Meanwhile, the
NAM is showing some marginal instability close to the surface
associated with the front. Have thus included a slight chance of
thunderstorms tonight, with the timing matching expecting frontal
passage. The front is currently expected to reach the North Sac
Valley around 3z-9z and the I-80 corridor by 9-15z. While this
timing is not the best for thunderstorms, our recent convective
event a few days ago demonstrated that frontal convection can
still go on overnight. Several difference worth noting between
this event and the last is the preceding surface dewpoints will
not be as high and surface convergence will not be as strong,
making the current event less favorable for convection compared
to the last.
Precipitation across the area should come to an end quickly by
mid-day Monday as drier air moves in and developing subsidence
aloft works against any lingering showers. Only lingering chance
could be some orographically-enhanced showers over the mountains.
Due to the subtropical origin of the moisture plume, snow levels
will be quite high and above Sierra passes today. Snow levels
will quickly lower behind the cold front to around 5500 to 6000
ft by mid-day tomorrow, although precip will be winding down by
that point. All told, we`re looking at 2-6 inches of snow near
Sierra pass levels with up to 10 inches over the higher peaks.
Lower elevations in the mountains can expect 1-2+ inches of rain,
with the Feather River area and parts of Shasta County likely
seeing the most. In the Valley, 0.5-1" is expected in the North
Sac Valley, tapering to a quarter inch or less from Sacramento
southward.
Tight surface pressure gradients will develop on the backside of
the trough by Tuesday along with strong winds around 700mb. This
would bring gusty north winds to the north and west sides of the
Sacramento Valley, strong east winds for the west slope of the
Northern Sierra, and very strong winds to mountain ridgetops.
-DVC
.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)
Increasing confidence that high pressure will strengthen across
the region later this week and next weekend. This will result in
dry weather with very mild temperatures for the interior of
NorCal. Look for Central Valley highs to warm through the 70s into
the lower 80s by the weekend with mountain readings warming from
the 50s and 60s into the 60s and 70s.
&&
.Aviation...
Little change in the pattern expected through 06Z Monday as
moisture continues to stream up into NorCal from the southwest.
VFR conditions will continue with CIGS generally 070-100 with sctd
-SHRA mainly N of I-80. Front moves S aft 06Z with widespread MVFR
conditions developing with IFR conditions over higher terrain.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
353 AM PDT Sun Mar 9 2014
.Synopsis...
A stream of Pacific moisture will bring precipitation to the
region today and Monday, especially for areas north of I-80.
Breezy winds are possible Tuesday. Dry and mild conditions return
for the remainder of the week.
&&
Discussion...
A 1.25-1.5" precipitable water plume (per latest satellite
estimates) is on track to bring precipitation to NorCal next 36
hours. Areas north of I-80 will see the most precip with periods
of rain today into early tomorrow, while areas south may not see
anything until later tonight. At the surface, recent KSMF
aircraft soundings indicate a very dry layer persisting around
800mb. One would expect precip aloft to have a tough time
reaching the surface given this dry layer, yet light rain has
been reported tonight from around Yuba City northward, indicating
more saturated profiles north of KSMF. High-res models have had a
tough time handling this situation as none of them are indicating
any Valley precip until later today (although the HRRR has
trended wetter in recent runs). Meanwhile, the latest radar
mosaic shows this early round of precip waning offshore, with the
more focused precip associated with a frontal band much further
north. All this makes for a complicated precip forecast today
from Redding south. Have opted for a slight chance of rain from
Sac vicinity northward, with better chances in the Redding/Red
Bluff area and a good bet over the mountains.
The action picks up late today into tonight as the trough axis
moves inland and an associated upper-level jetstreak brushes the
region. Closer to the surface, a cold front (most evident in
frontogenesis plots from 850-700mb) pushes southeastward across
NorCal with the moisture plume at its leading edge. The jet
position puts our area in the favorable right entrance region,
while the frontogenesis provides extra dynamics. Meanwhile, the
NAM is showing some marginal instability close to the surface
associated with the front. Have thus included a slight chance of
thunderstorms tonight, with the timing matching expecting frontal
passage. The front is currently expected to reach the North Sac
Valley around 3z-9z and the I-80 corridor by 9-15z. While this
timing is not the best for thunderstorms, our recent convective
event a few days ago demonstrated that frontal convection can
still go on overnight. Several difference worth noting between
this event and the last is the preceding surface dewpoints will
not be as high and surface convergence will not be as strong,
making the current event less favorable for convection compared
to the last.
Precipitation across the area should come to an end quickly by
mid-day Monday as drier air moves in and developing subsidence
aloft works against any lingering showers. Only lingering chance
could be some orographically-enhanced showers over the mountains.
Due to the subtropical origin of the moisture plume, snow levels
will be quite high and above Sierra passes today. Snow levels
will quickly lower behind the cold front to around 5500 to 6000
ft by mid-day tomorrow, although precip will be winding down by
that point. All told, we`re looking at 2-6 inches of snow near
Sierra pass levels with up to 10 inches over the higher peaks.
Lower elevations in the mountains can expect 1-2+ inches of rain,
with the Feather River area and parts of Shasta County likely
seeing the most. In the Valley, 0.5-1" is expected in the North
Sac Valley, tapering to a quarter inch or less from Sacramento
southward.
Tight surface pressure gradients will develop on the backside of
the trough by Tuesday along with strong winds around 700mb. This
would bring gusty north winds to the north and west sides of the
Sacramento Valley, strong east winds for the west slope of the
Northern Sierra, and very strong winds to mountain ridgetops.
-DVC
.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)
Increasing confidence that high pressure will strengthen across
the region later this week and next weekend. This will result in
dry weather with very mild temperatures for the interior of
NorCal. Look for Central Valley highs to warm through the 70s into
the lower 80s by the weekend with mountain readings warming from
the 50s and 60s into the 60s and 70s.
&&
.Aviation...
Little change in the pattern expected through 06Z Monday as
moisture continues to stream up into NorCal from the southwest.
VFR conditions will continue with CIGS generally 070-100 with sctd
-SHRA mainly N of I-80. Front moves S aft 06Z with widespread MVFR
conditions developing with IFR conditions over higher terrain.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1052 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
ANOTHER WARMUP IS IN STORE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ON TAP.
THEN...A PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO
CENTRAL INDIANA MIDWEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...MORE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON MORNING STRATOCU AND OR PATCHY FOG WITH
THE CONCENTRATION THIS AFTERNOON ON TEMPERATURES.
THE RUC13 925 MILLIBAR RH PROGS SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRATOCU DECK...CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS. IT SUGGESTS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS DECK WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...SO LEFT SOME SKY COVER IN THERE THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH LITTLE ELSEWHERE UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING THEIR DEW POINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THE STRATOCU AND OR FOG WILL HANG AROUND LONGER THAN THAT
WITH HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 925 MILLIBARS. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG ARE
GONE...THERE SHOULD BE SUNNY SKIES WITH MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOWING
A DRY COLUMN AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...PREFER THE WARMER 00Z GFS MOS WHICH IS CLOSE
TO 00Z CONSALL. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S WHICH IS JUST
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SHORT TERM SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO CONFIDENCE IS GOOD REGARDING A BLEND.
MODELS KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BUFKIT SUGGESTS MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
GULF CREATING A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A FRONT SHOULD THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE. WITH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN OVERRUNNING REALLY RAMPS UP AND ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS
FROM THE TOP DOWN AS THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
KENTUCKY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND OBS ARE IMPLYING
QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS AND POSSIBLY AC WILL BE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM. THUS...PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF
WHICH HAS MORE SKY COVER THAN ANY BLEND. DESPITE THIS...PREFER
TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER 00Z GFS ONCE AGAIN AS IT HAS BEEN DOING
BETTER WITH THE RECENT WARMER DAYS. ESPECIALLY PREFER THE WARMER
GFS ON MONDAY WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WE SHOULD SEE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...THERE IS STILL A DECENT
DISCREPANCY IN HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN...WITH THE GFS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING IT IN. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE
GENERALLY TRIED TO GO WITH ONLY ONE PRECIP TYPE IF BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN AGREEMENT AND A MIX IF THEY DIDN/T. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES LOOK LIKE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE WILL ARRIVE BEFORE OR
CONCURRENT WITH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE SO NO EXPECTATION OF
ANYTHING BESIDES RAIN OR SNOW. THUS STARTED OUT ALL RAIN EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH AFTER 6Z...WITH
RAIN OR SNOW COMING SOUTH TO AROUND I-70...AND RAIN SOUTH OF THERE.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALL SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70 WITH A MIX
SOUTH AND ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ITS WAKE. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH. WITH THE GROUND RELATIVELY WARM BEFORE THIS
STARTS FROM HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THINK IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH AND REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 091500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ONGOING TAFS IN GOOD SHAPE AS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
/DISCUSSION FOR 091200Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
MVFR FOG AT KHUF AND KLAF SHOULD BURN OFF BY ABOUT 14Z. MAY SEE
SOME OF THIS AT KBMG THROUGH THEN AS WELL. AT KIND THINKING ANY
FOG IS LESS LIKELY WITH WINDS NOT DROPPING TO CALM AND DEW POINT
DEPRESSION REMAINING A FEW DEGREES SO WILL NOT INCLUDE WITH NEW
ISSUANCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
648 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
ANOTHER WARMUP IS IN STORE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ON TAP.
THEN...A PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO
CENTRAL INDIANA MIDWEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...MORE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON MORNING STRATOCU AND OR PATCHY FOG WITH
THE CONCENTRATION THIS AFTERNOON ON TEMPERATURES.
THE RUC13 925 MILLIBAR RH PROGS SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRATOCU DECK...CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS. IT SUGGESTS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS DECK WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...SO LEFT SOME SKY COVER IN THERE THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH LITTLE ELSEWHERE UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING THEIR DEW POINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THE STRATOCU AND OR FOG WILL HANG AROUND LONGER THAN THAT
WITH HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 925 MILLIBARS. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG ARE
GONE...THERE SHOULD BE SUNNY SKIES WITH MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOWING
A DRY COLUMN AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...PREFER THE WARMER 00Z GFS MOS WHICH IS CLOSE
TO 00Z CONSALL. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S WHICH IS JUST
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SHORT TERM SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO CONFIDENCE IS GOOD REGARDING A BLEND.
MODELS KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BUFKIT SUGGESTS MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
GULF CREATING A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A FRONT SHOULD THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE. WITH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN OVERRUNNING REALLY RAMPS UP AND ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS
FROM THE TOP DOWN AS THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
KENTUCKY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND OBS ARE IMPLYING
QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS AND POSSIBLY AC WILL BE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM. THUS...PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF
WHICH HAS MORE SKY COVER THAN ANY BLEND. DESPITE THIS...PREFER
TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER 00Z GFS ONCE AGAIN AS IT HAS BEEN DOING
BETTER WITH THE RECENT WARMER DAYS. ESPECIALLY PREFER THE WARMER
GFS ON MONDAY WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WE SHOULD SEE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...THERE IS STILL A DECENT
DISCREPANCY IN HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN...WITH THE GFS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING IT IN. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE
GENERALLY TRIED TO GO WITH ONLY ONE PRECIP TYPE IF BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN AGREEMENT AND A MIX IF THEY DIDN/T. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES LOOK LIKE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE WILL ARRIVE BEFORE OR
CONCURRENT WITH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE SO NO EXPECTATION OF
ANYTHING BESIDES RAIN OR SNOW. THUS STARTED OUT ALL RAIN EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH AFTER 6Z...WITH
RAIN OR SNOW COMING SOUTH TO AROUND I-70...AND RAIN SOUTH OF THERE.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALL SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70 WITH A MIX
SOUTH AND ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ITS WAKE. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH. WITH THE GROUND RELATIVELY WARM BEFORE THIS
STARTS FROM HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THINK IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH AND REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 091200Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
MVFR FOG AT KHUF AND KLAF SHOULD BURN OFF BY ABOUT 14Z. MAY SEE
SOME OF THIS AT KBMG THROUGH THEN AS WELL. AT KIND THINKING ANY
FOG IS LESS LIKELY WITH WINDS NOT DROPPING TO CALM AND DEW POINT
DEPRESSION REMAINING A FEW DEGREES SO WILL NOT INCLUDE WITH NEW
ISSUANCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1157 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND TODAY. TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE EARLY MONDAY...AND ONE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...THESE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF
SNOW OR RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY...
NOON UPDATE...
HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT A DEGREE FOR MOST AREAS AS
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FORECAST MAXIMUMS ALREADY. HOWEVER... DO NOT
EXPECT A LOT OF ADDITIONAL HEATING AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY... COMBATING THE SOLAR HEATING. OTHER ADJUSTMENTS
WERE TO ZERO OUT POP AND INSERT MORE CLEAR SKIES.
730AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE REGION WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ADJUSTED GRIDS
FOR CURRENT DEWPOINTS AND DIURNAL CURVE BASED ON LAST NIGHTS MIN
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE THE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AS WELL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING
SHUNTED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
LIGHT SNOWFALL EXITING SOUTH OF CAPE COD DURING THE 10Z-16Z TIME
FRAME...LEAVING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ME/NH ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING MARK IN
SOUTHERN AREAS DESPITE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE IS INITIALLY VERY
DRY AT THE ONSET...WITH SUBLIMATION LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY.
ALLOWED FOR A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE HIGHER MET POPS AND THE DRIER
MAV READINGS AS THIS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM CROSSES THE
NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR THE EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY IN ITS WAKE A DRIER DOWNSLOPING
NW FLOW DEVELOPS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S.
ALL EYES ARE ON THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW THAT MODELS ARE KEYING ON FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE BACK INTO CONSENSUS OF FAVORING THE PHASING OF THE
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT WOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
THEN TRACK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL AND ALSO ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE THAT MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON THE POSSIBLE
SCENARIO OF THE FAVORED EURO. BASED ON THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND
CONFIDENCE...WE WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT BY THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CEILING AND VISIBILITY MAINLY CONTINUING TO BE VFR
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM...
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR SEAS WILL REMAIN UP AS 5 AND 6 FOOTERS
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SWAN MODEL DOING A GOOD JOB
HANDLING THE SWELLS.
LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POSSIBLE
GALE FORCE WINDS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL STORM.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... JC
LONG TERM... RM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
734 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND TODAY. TWO WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA...ONE EARLY MONDAY...AND ONE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...THESE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF
SNOW OR RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE REGION WITH JUST SOME SCT CLOUD COVER OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR
CURRENT DEW POINTS AND DIURNAL CURVE BASED ON LAST NIGHTS MIN
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE THE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AS WELL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
PREV DISC...
00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING
SHUNTED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
LIGHT SNOWFALL EXITING SOUTH OF CAPE COD DURING THE 10Z-16Z TIME
FRAME...LEAVING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ME/NH ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING MARK IN
SOUTHERN AREAS DESPITE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE IS INITIALLY VERY
DRY AT THE ONSET...WITH SUBLIMATION LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT AS ANY -SHSN ATTEMPT TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY.
ALLOWED FOR A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE HIGHER MET POPS AND THE DRIER
MAV READINGS AS THIS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM CROSSES THE
NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR THE EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION MON NIGHT WITH SCT SNW
SHWRS. ON TUE IN ITS WAKE A DRIER DOWNSLOPING NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
ALL EYES ARE ON THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW THAT MODELS ARE KEYING ON FOR LATE WED INTO THU. MODELS ARE
BACK INTO CONCENSUS OF FAVORING THE PHASING OF THE NRN/SRN STREAM
ENERGY THAT WOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. THE TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL FOR AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL AND ALSO
ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. BUT
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON THE POSSIBLE SCENERIO OF THE FAVORED
EURO. BASED ON THE SUPERBLEND GUID AND CONFIDENCE...WE WILL INCREASE
POPS TO LKLY FOR LATE WED INTO THU.
THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT BY THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY CONTINUING TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM...
MVFR CONDS PSBL IN -SHSN MON NIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDS
PSBL LATE WED INTO THU.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR SEAS WILL REMAIN UP AS 5 AND 6 FOOTERS
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SWAN MODEL DOING A GOOD JOB
HANDLING THE SWELLS.
LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY WED. WED
NIGHT AND THU THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PSBL GALE FORCE WINDS
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL STORM.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
755 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES DONWSTREAM FROM A RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. AT THE
SFC...SRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN LOW PRES NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AND A RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. IR LOOP SHOWED MID CLOUDS
INCREASING WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WARM FRONT INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS. RADARS AND SFC INDICATED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...NW OF THUNDERBAY...WHERE 285K-295K ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS
STRONGEST.
TODAY...MODELS ALONG WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
THE LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN BUT MAY BRUSH THE NRN KEWEENAW
AND THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...MID CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY ALONG WITH THE SW WINDS. EXPECT ENOUGH
INSOLATION ALONG WITH THE WAA TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY LINGER IN THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE EAST WHERE THICKER CLOUDS PREVAIL.
TONIGHT...AFTER THE NRN ONTARIO MOVES OFF TOT HE EAST...THE TIGHTEST
PORTION OF THE 850-700 TEMP GRADIENT WILL LINGER JUST TO THE N OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK FGEN DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHRTWV MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY
DEVELOP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AGAIN
FOR THE KEWEENAW. WITH AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER...SOME FREEZING RAIN
MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...IF ANY PERSISTENT PCPN DOES
DEVELOP...EVAPORATIVE COOLIN...WOULD LOWER TEMPS FOR MAINLY
SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH/S STRENGTH SEEMS TO BE
WAVERING. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PERIODS OF WARM UP FROM PACIFIC AIR
WORKING EAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. CLIPPER SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WARM UPS WILL GENERALLY
TRACK ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BRING A COUPLE
DAY PERIODS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THEM.
THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AT 12Z MONDAY
AND SLIDING THROUGH ONTARIO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. WITH THIS TRACK...EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING ARE LOCATED. THIS TRACK AND EXPECTED DRY SLOT MOVING
THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH
DOES MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
WEST. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WEST AND KEWEENAW. WIND GUSTS OVER THE WEST WILL DEPEND ON
MIXING AND THAT MAY BE LIMITED WITH THE COOLING FROM THE ICE ON THE
WESTERN LAKE. THAT BEING SAID...DID TREND VALUES UP SEVERAL KNOTS IN
THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH MOST SHOWING HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE GEM
(NH/REGIONAL) CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PARTS OF UPPER
MICHIGAN. WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THEY ARE INDICATING THROUGH
THE MORNING...THAT WOULDN/T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF
AND IT/S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE VERY CONSISTENT (ONLY ABOUT A 4 DEGREE
SPREAD FROM THE 51 MEMBERS) ON HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
COLDEST TEMPS...BUT THAT IS LARGELY TIED TO IT KEEPING LOW CLOUDS
WITH THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT ABOUT 120MI FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. FELT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON HIGHS
AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS. HIGHEST TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...WHERE THE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
DOWNSLOPING TO WARM TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S AND NEAR 50. IF KIMT/KESC
REACH 50 DEGREES...IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE MID NOVEMBER
(17TH).
WITH THE LOW SHIFTING EAST INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL FILTER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA AND LEAD TO A COOLER DAY ON
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COLDER AND THEN WITH THE
MAIN COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SHOULD SEE TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE AROUND -21C (25C COLDER THAN MONDAY) AND THAT SHOULD ONLY
PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE TEENS. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES
BASED OFF THE CONSISTENCY IN THE COLDER HIGHS ON THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS.
DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NORTH TO
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST WINDS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SOME BREAKS
IN THE ICE ON LAKE SUPERIOR IT SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL PROBABLY END UP
TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEING COLDER...SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER SINCE THE
FORCING WILL BE AT THE TOP OF OR ABOVE THE DGZ. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE LOWERS THE
INVERSION AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIKED THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS HANDLING OF THE POPS (LIKELYS IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN) AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.
CLEARING SKIES AND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GEM ARE SHOWING LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. THINK THAT SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PWATS
ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SINCE THE GEM PERFORMS VERY WELL
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...HAVE DROPPED LOWS A GOOD 7-15
DEGREES AND CLOSER TO IT/S VALUES. WITH THE TEMPERATURE FALLING
BELOW ZERO THIS PAST EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WE HAVE PUSHED OUR SUB ZERO DAYS TO 56. THINKING IT WILL
COOL OFF FAST ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO ADD BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO THE SUB ZERO DAYS AND IF THAT OCCURS IT WOULD BREAK THE
RECORD OF 57 DAYS (SET IN 1962-63) AT OUR OFFICE.
WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARMING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 20S EAST AND LOWER 30S WEST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH THE
WAA...SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA ON
THURSDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE CLIPPER THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE BEST PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA LIKE THE LAST TWO SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE COLDER AIR
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND PRODUCE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR
LIGHT SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
WAA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE
INCREASING MID CLOUDS TODAY BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUED SRLY FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS AND SOME REDUCTION IN VSBY
WITH FOG. IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT SAW...WITH MORE OF
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
GUSTY SW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. AFTER WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...EXPECT SW WINDS
TO AGAIN INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOUTH OF ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE FCST TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
20 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
628 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE BANK OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE THE CLOUDS AS THE DROP SOUTH INTO SRN NEB. THE BEST
GUESS ON TEMPS TODAY IS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. H800MB TEMPS RISE TO
10C WHICH SUPPORTS UPPER 60S. WARMER AIR RESIDES AT 700MB WHICH
COULD PUSH TEMPS HIGHER. MR. DEEP MIXING MODEL...THE RAP...SHOWS
MIXING HEIGHTS REACHING TO AROUND 750 MB FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE HRRR MODEL WHICH SHOWS MID 70S ALSO.
THESE ARE THE WARMEST MODELS. GIVEN THAT KLBF IS AT 39F AT 330AM
CDT WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS...THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST IN THE ONTARIO WITH WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON . A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SETTING UP NORTHWEST WINDS...STILL LIGHT
THOUGH. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO JUST THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...THEN WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITTING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL SEE LITTLE MOVEMENT INTO MONDAY.
LOOKING FURTHER NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL PUSH ON LAND AND INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY. BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE INFLUENCE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST...WITH LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING OVER WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM IS THE
WARMER SOLUTION...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 13C TO 18C BY 00Z
TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER...YET STILL ANOMALOUSLY WARM. CHECKING STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WERE GENERALLY AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING POTENTIAL TO
AROUND 800MB...AND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ROUTINELY TOO LOW
WITH MIXING HEIGHTS LATELY THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM SEEING DEEP MIXING TO 700MB OR SO. THESE
FACTORS ARE FIRST...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO KEEP
WINDS LIGHT AND NOT HELP WITH MIXING...AND SECOND THINKING THERE
MIGHT BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD LIMIT THE SURFACE WARMING SLIGHTLY. THAT
BEING SAID...STILL THINKING HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S LOOKS GOOD.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST LIFT WITH THE SYSTEM STAYS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK FROM WYOMING
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT THIS SIGNAL SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LOOKING AT MOISTURE IN SOUNDINGS AND
CROSS SECTIONS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE ABOUT 6 HOURS OF POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND AS THE COLUMN DOES NOT SATURATE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT BACKED OFF
ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
TUESDAY MORNING.
THE LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES LOOK TO WANE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND THIS SIGNAL IS BEING SHOWN BY THE
NAM...WITH THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SIGNAL IN THE QPF FIELDS...SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOST AREAS SEEING AT LEAST A FEW HOURS ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAYING SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. MAY
HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING A BIT LONG INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT KEPT LOW END
CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WILL RE-EVALUATE ON UPCOMING
SHIFTS. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT SO IT WILL BEGIN AS RAIN THEN AS THE
COLUMN COOLS AND THE WET BULB STAYS BELOW ZERO THROUGH ALL BUT THE
LOWEST LAYER COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SNOW INTO THE
EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...IF IT DOES EVEN
ACCUMULATE DUE TO THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL BE
FAIRLY STAGNANT...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST PART OF THE COUNTRY
AND A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THIS WILL PUT THE LOCAL
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT COLDER AIR WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT THE PRIMARY ENERGY WILL BE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THAT PARTICULAR
SYSTEM. THEN LOOKING INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG TERM MODELS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL AMPLIFY...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING IS EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THE MIXING TO 725 MB
THE PREVIOUS DAY PER KLBF UA SOUNDING. THIS MIGHT SUPPORT THE LOWER
DEW POINTS SHOWN IN THE GEM REG AND ECM WHICH PUSH RH TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...FOR ABOUT 1 HOUR. THE DEEP VERTICAL MIXING
IS OF LITTLE AVAIL FOR WIND SPEEDS AS THEY FLATTEN OUT TO 15 KT AT
750 MB AND HIGHER. THE GEM AND ECM DO SHOW A BANK OF STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOPING AT THE 500M AGL LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PANHANDLE
WHICH COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA...IF...THE ASSOCIATED SFC
TROF ADVANCES THROUGH THE FCST AREA AS SHOWN BY THE RAP13 MODEL. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE TROF ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
PRODUCES A BANK OF SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST OF 83 AND THEN WEST WINDS
WEST OF 83. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE SHARPNESS OF THE
TROF...TIMING AND THE WINDS SHOWN IN THE GEM AND THE ECM THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH CAN BE CONVERTED TO A WARNING IN MANY AREAS BUT THIS
IS A VERY LOW END WARNING WHICH MIGHT NOT VERIFY GIVEN THE WETNESS
OF THE GROUND AND THE PROPENSITY OF THE SUN TO TRANSPORATE MOISTURE
TO THE AIR. WINDS GUST TO JUST 25 MPH AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY SPORADIC. THE RAP AND HRRR WERE THE BASIS FOR THE WIND GUST
FORECAST WHICH SHOWS THE STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS THE PLATTE VALLEYS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-209.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1051 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
LARGE OFFSHORE LIGHT RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY PULLING EAST THIS MORNING
...LIGHT RAIN ENDING ALONG THE COAST THIS HOUR. AFTER THIS EARLY
MORNING MUCK OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG CLEARS OUT WE WILL BE LEFT
WITH AN OVERCAST...COOL AND DAMP DAY. CONVECTION FIRING EAST OF
THE WESTERN GULF SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROF WILL KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THE COASTAL BEND UP INTO
THE MATAGORDA BAY REGION. ENSEMBLE SLOWING THE EASTERN PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SONARA/CHIHUAHUA PROVINCES AND TAKING
IT SOUTH OF SE`ERN TX EARLY TUESDAY THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS/QPF OVER THE COASTAL REGIONS/GULF LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. SUBSEQUENT WEEK DAY WARMTH WITH CLEARING SKIES GOING
INTO MID-WEEK. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
AXIS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THE METRO AREA TERMINALS HAS
BEGUN TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE COAST AND IS ALSO DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. HI RES MODELS HAVE THIS AREA DIMINISHING BY LATE MORNING
WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHIFTING FURTHER DOWN THE COAST.
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. SOME CONCERN THAT NORTHERN SITES WILL
SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF THIS
TAF PACKAGE. 38
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AREA RADAR SHOW SOME RAIN STRETCHING MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 WITH A
BROAD AREA OF RAIN BACK TOWARDS VICTORIA. SFC COLD FRONT HAS JUST
PUSHED OFF THE COAST WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S BEHIND IT. UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS HAS 850MB FRONT FROM W OF DFW TO JUST NORTH OF JCT.
SEEMS THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT HAS LED TO RAIN ACTIVITY
OVER SE TX WHICH SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING AS 925-850MB FLOW
WEAKENS. ANALYSIS AT 500MB SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING FROM THE PLAINS
BACK TO THE DESERT SW. WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT OVER
THE S PLAINS WHILE SECOND LOW CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS S
TX. THIS SEEMS TO BE FORCING MODERATE RAIN BACK TO THE SW NEAR
VCT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS DECIDED TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG
THE COAST MAINLY 60/70 PERCENT. 06Z RUN OF HRRR SEEMS TO SUPPORT
THIS IDEA ALONG WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. DO
NOT THINK HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. LOOKS LIKE 1.5
INCH PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL STAY OVER THE GULF. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOP.
BASED ON GFS/ECMWF/NAM 00Z MODEL TRENDS...THINK THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN RAINFALL SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY EXCEPT FOR THE OFFSHORE
AREAS. ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW
DROPPING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
COMING ACROSS C MEXICO ON MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT. THINK STRONGER
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING SO HAVE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS
WITH A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE LOW THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
BE OFF THE GULF COAST BUT STILL HELD ONTO SOME HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. UPPER LOW THEN MOVES ALONG THE N GULF
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING. AGAIN BECOMING LESS
CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT SEEMS THAT THREAT WILL BE
OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. STILL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW AREAS ALONG
THE COAST TO PICK UP A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
GFS/ECMWF STILL ON TRACK WITH NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED
MORNING. NAM LAGS BEHIND BY ABOUT 6 HRS. FORECAST WILL KEEP WITH
CONSISTENT TRENDS OF THE ECMWF/GFS. AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD BE DRY AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGEST WED AFTERNOON
AS 850MB TEMPS DROP SHARPLY DURING THE DAY. MIN TEMPS THUR
MORNING SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S/40S FOR THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRI
INTO SAT TO END THE WEEK. INTRODUCED SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS COMING OFF THE GULF IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO COME TOGETHER WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR NEXT SUNDAY. 39
&&
MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WILL CARRY CAUTION FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT GALVESTON BAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN ITS WAKE. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 53 46 70 53 77 / 10 10 30 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 56 50 71 54 76 / 20 20 30 50 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 54 65 57 70 / 50 20 40 60 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
644 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
AXIS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THE METRO AREA TERMINALS HAS
BEGUN TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE COAST AND IS ALSO DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. HI RES MODELS HAVE THIS AREA DIMINISHING BY LATE MORNING
WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHIFTING FURTHER DOWN THE COAST.
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. SOME CONCERN THAT NORTHERN SITES WILL
SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF THIS
TAF PACKAGE. 38
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AREA RADAR SHOW SOME RAIN STRETCHING MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 WITH A
BROAD AREA OF RAIN BACK TOWARDS VICTORIA. SFC COLD FRONT HAS JUST
PUSHED OFF THE COAST WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S BEHIND IT. UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS HAS 850MB FRONT FROM W OF DFW TO JUST NORTH OF JCT.
SEEMS THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT HAS LED TO RAIN ACTIVITY
OVER SE TX WHICH SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING AS 925-850MB FLOW
WEAKENS. ANALYSIS AT 500MB SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING FROM THE PLAINS
BACK TO THE DESERT SW. WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT OVER
THE S PLAINS WHILE SECOND LOW CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS S
TX. THIS SEEMS TO BE FORCING MODERATE RAIN BACK TO THE SW NEAR
VCT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS DECIDED TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG
THE COAST MAINLY 60/70 PERCENT. 06Z RUN OF HRRR SEEMS TO SUPPORT
THIS IDEA ALONG WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. DO
NOT THINK HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. LOOKS LIKE 1.5
INCH PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL STAY OVER THE GULF. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOP.
BASED ON GFS/ECMWF/NAM 00Z MODEL TRENDS...THINK THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN RAINFALL SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY EXCEPT FOR THE OFFSHORE
AREAS. ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW
DROPPING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
COMING ACROSS C MEXICO ON MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT. THINK STRONGER
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING SO HAVE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS
WITH A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE LOW THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
BE OFF THE GULF COAST BUT STILL HELD ONTO SOME HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. UPPER LOW THEN MOVES ALONG THE N GULF
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING. AGAIN BECOMING LESS
CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT SEEMS THAT THREAT WILL BE
OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. STILL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW AREAS ALONG
THE COAST TO PICK UP A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
GFS/ECMWF STILL ON TRACK WITH NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED
MORNING. NAM LAGS BEHIND BY ABOUT 6 HRS. FORECAST WILL KEEP WITH
CONSISTENT TRENDS OF THE ECMWF/GFS. AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD BE DRY AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGEST WED AFTERNOON
AS 850MB TEMPS DROP SHARPLY DURING THE DAY. MIN TEMPS THUR
MORNING SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S/40S FOR THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRI
INTO SAT TO END THE WEEK. INTRODUCED SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS COMING OFF THE GULF IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO COME TOGETHER WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR NEXT SUNDAY.
39
MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WILL CARRY CAUTION FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT GALVESTON BAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN ITS WAKE. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 56 46 70 53 77 / 30 10 30 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 59 49 71 54 76 / 40 20 30 50 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 53 65 57 70 / 60 20 40 60 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
640 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER
AIR OVER THE REGION AND THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW WARM WILL
TEMPERATURES GET OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THE 10 TO 25
INCHES OF SNOW CURRENTLY SITTING ON THE GROUND. THE 09.00Z GFS
SUGGEST 925 MB TEMPERATURES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM ABOUT 0C ACROSS THE NORTH TO 7C IN THE SOUTH. THE WARMEST AIR
SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WHEN 10C AIR AT 925 MB GETS INTO
THE SOUTHERN AREAS BEFORE COOLING TAKES OVER MONDAY WITH VALUES
RETURNING TO SIMILAR LEVELS THAT ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. THE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SHOW VERY LIMITED MIXING TO OCCUR
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER POSSIBLY
REACHING INTO THIS WARMER AIR AT 925 MB. THE OTHER COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS THE SNOW PACK AND A LOOK BACK AT PAST EVENTS SHOWS KRST
HAS NEVER TOPPED 45 DEGREES WITH 20 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND
WHILE KLSE HAS HIT 50 DEGREES ONLY ABOUT 5 TIMES WITH ANY AMOUNT
OF SNOW PACK. WHILE THE SUN ANGLE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...JUST DO
NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ENERGY FROM THE SUN TO OVERCOME THE
SNOW PACK AND WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
MONDAY...DROPPED THE TEMPERATURES BACK JUST A LITTLE BIT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION WILL START MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ENERGY COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC TONIGHT
WILL SEND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. MOST OF THE
FORCING FROM THE PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MISS THE AREA TO
THE SOUTH...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD
PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER. MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THESE WAVES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO BE IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER...BUT LOOKS TO SET UP MORE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN IOWA
WITH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AND RAISED THE
CHANCES UP TO 70 PERCENT FOR NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. SOME CONCERN WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES AT THE ONSET.
LOOK LIKE ICE SHOULD BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS BUT WITH A WARM
LAYER ALOFT BETWEEN 900 AND 850 MB. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME
PARTIAL MELTING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET OCCURRING.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE BASED ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY SHOULD EXIT THE REGION
DURING THE EVENING AND REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH THE MODELS ALL SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THIS FLOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES THOUGH
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS WAVE WILL BE ALONG WITH
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE 09.00Z ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH
AND CURRENTLY THE ONLY MODEL SUGGESTING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THIS
TIME FRAME WITH THE GFS AND 09.00Z GEM KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. UNTIL MORE OF A MODEL
CONSENSUS DEVELOPS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN MODERATING INTO THE 40S FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS /MAINLY ABOVE 15K FEET/ MOVED INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO
AROUND 10K FEET THIS EVENING...AND THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR AS
SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
BOTH THE RAP AND NAM INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING AT KRST BY 09.17Z. THIS IS DUE TO
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINING INTACT AND NOT ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY. MEANWHILE THE GFS DOES DEVELOP SOME GUSTS
INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. SINCE THE NAM AND RAP USUALLY HAVE
PROBLEMS WITH NOT ERODING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS IN THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OPTED TO GO MORE TOWARDS THE GFS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
1015 AM PDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW TIMING OF RAIN AND SNOW PUSHING SOUTHWARD
AS FRONT AWAITS SHORTWAVE STILL OUT AROUND 135W. SOME LIGHT RAIN
WITH SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY
WITH SPRINKLES MOST AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIPITATION OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN AREAS MAY EVEN LIGHTEN JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT
LATE TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WITH THE FRONT. LOWERED POPS
ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND IN THE TAHOE BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING
BUT MAINTAINED THE HIGH POPS FURTHER NORTH. ALSO, WINDS ALONG THE
RIDGES ARE SLOW TO COME UP WITH THE 12Z NAM/LATEST HRRR NOT
BRINGING LAKE WINDS UP DRAMATICALLY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. SO
ADJUSTED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO REMOVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH WITH CHOP TO 2
FEET, BUT MUCH ROUGHER WATERS WILL ARRIVE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. ALL UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. HOHMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM PDT SUN MAR 9 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
TODAY INTO MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS AREAS LAKES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE TUESDAY RISING TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS AN
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH GUIDES SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOST PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY
NORTH OF THE TAHOE BASIN INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. HIGH SNOW
LEVELS TODAY (>8000 FT) SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAINFALL ACROSS
MOST PASSES WITH A FEW TENTHS OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS
THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL PICK UP WINDS ACROSS THE
RIDGES WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN 30-40KTS. THIS MAY CREATE
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY
AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY WHERE GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE TAHOE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE AND MIXING ENHANCES.
HAVE DELAYED TIMING WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN AS
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TROUGHS PROGRESSION AND PROVIDE A QUICK SHOT
OF PRECIP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND
6000-6500 FEET DURING THIS TIME AND MAY ALLOW A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO OCCUR NEAR LAKE LEVEL WITH A SLUSHY INCH OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO LOWERED QPF ACROSS THE CREST FROM TAHOE SOUTH
INTO MONO COUNTY. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE
8000 FEET WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN MONO COUNTY. NOT MUCH
MEANINGFUL RAIN ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE ACROSS RENO/CARSON WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS (A FEW
TENTHS) POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN WASHOE AND PERSHING COUNTY WHERE
BETTER DYNAMICS, MOISTURE, AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS BOTH LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE.
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND LOWER 40S FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS NEVADA.
THIS MAY ALSO PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS TAHOE PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WESTERN SHORES WITH THE EAST GRADIENT IN PLACE. FUENTES
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL, ALTHOUGH RIDGING IS STARTING TO
REBUILD ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS STARTING TO
RELAX, THE WINDS WILL BE LESS ON WEDNESDAY THAN TUESDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MORE THAN A
COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND HOWEVER, SOUTH WINDS RETURN
AND TEMPERATURES MAY REACH INTO THE LOW 70S IN WESTERN NEVADA. HOON
AVIATION...
A STORM ARRIVING LATE TODAY WILL BRING RAIN TO WESTERN NV AND
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE SIERRA. TERMINALS LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED WILL BE FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
MODERATE PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
MAY DROP TO NEAR LAKE LEVEL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT KTRK/KTVL...BUT LIGHT
SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF SNOW LEVELS DROPPING. TURBULENCE...ICING...AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
WEISHAHN/HOON
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
202 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
ANOTHER WARMUP IS IN STORE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ON TAP.
THEN...A PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO
CENTRAL INDIANA MIDWEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...MORE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON MORNING STRATOCU AND OR PATCHY FOG WITH
THE CONCENTRATION THIS AFTERNOON ON TEMPERATURES.
THE RUC13 925 MILLIBAR RH PROGS SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRATOCU DECK...CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS. IT SUGGESTS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS DECK WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...SO LEFT SOME SKY COVER IN THERE THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH LITTLE ELSEWHERE UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING THEIR DEW POINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THE STRATOCU AND OR FOG WILL HANG AROUND LONGER THAN THAT
WITH HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 925 MILLIBARS. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG ARE
GONE...THERE SHOULD BE SUNNY SKIES WITH MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOWING
A DRY COLUMN AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...PREFER THE WARMER 00Z GFS MOS WHICH IS CLOSE
TO 00Z CONSALL. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S WHICH IS JUST
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SHORT TERM SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO CONFIDENCE IS GOOD REGARDING A BLEND.
MODELS KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BUFKIT SUGGESTS MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
GULF CREATING A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A FRONT SHOULD THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE. WITH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN OVERRUNNING REALLY RAMPS UP AND ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS
FROM THE TOP DOWN AS THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
KENTUCKY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND OBS ARE IMPLYING
QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS AND POSSIBLY AC WILL BE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM. THUS...PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF
WHICH HAS MORE SKY COVER THAN ANY BLEND. DESPITE THIS...PREFER
TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER 00Z GFS ONCE AGAIN AS IT HAS BEEN DOING
BETTER WITH THE RECENT WARMER DAYS. ESPECIALLY PREFER THE WARMER
GFS ON MONDAY WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WE SHOULD SEE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEM THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALOFT...HOWEVER AS
THE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF INDIANA BY THURSDAY STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
BY SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AND A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. MEANWHILE THE
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH EJECT AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE SOME POPS AT THAT TIME...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON DAY7.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 091800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS INDIANA
TO WESTERN NEW YORK WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MID AND HIGH
CLOUD CEILINGS. A GOOD LOWER LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE
GOOD MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT...PREVENTING FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONFIRM...SHOWING DRY
LOWER LEVELS WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1246 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
ANOTHER WARMUP IS IN STORE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ON TAP.
THEN...A PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO
CENTRAL INDIANA MIDWEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...MORE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON MORNING STRATOCU AND OR PATCHY FOG WITH
THE CONCENTRATION THIS AFTERNOON ON TEMPERATURES.
THE RUC13 925 MILLIBAR RH PROGS SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRATOCU DECK...CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS. IT SUGGESTS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS DECK WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...SO LEFT SOME SKY COVER IN THERE THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH LITTLE ELSEWHERE UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING THEIR DEW POINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THE STRATOCU AND OR FOG WILL HANG AROUND LONGER THAN THAT
WITH HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 925 MILLIBARS. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG ARE
GONE...THERE SHOULD BE SUNNY SKIES WITH MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOWING
A DRY COLUMN AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...PREFER THE WARMER 00Z GFS MOS WHICH IS CLOSE
TO 00Z CONSALL. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S WHICH IS JUST
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SHORT TERM SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO CONFIDENCE IS GOOD REGARDING A BLEND.
MODELS KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BUFKIT SUGGESTS MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
GULF CREATING A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A FRONT SHOULD THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE. WITH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN OVERRUNNING REALLY RAMPS UP AND ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS
FROM THE TOP DOWN AS THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
KENTUCKY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND OBS ARE IMPLYING
QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS AND POSSIBLY AC WILL BE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM. THUS...PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF
WHICH HAS MORE SKY COVER THAN ANY BLEND. DESPITE THIS...PREFER
TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER 00Z GFS ONCE AGAIN AS IT HAS BEEN DOING
BETTER WITH THE RECENT WARMER DAYS. ESPECIALLY PREFER THE WARMER
GFS ON MONDAY WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WE SHOULD SEE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...THERE IS STILL A DECENT
DISCREPANCY IN HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN...WITH THE GFS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING IT IN. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE
GENERALLY TRIED TO GO WITH ONLY ONE PRECIP TYPE IF BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN AGREEMENT AND A MIX IF THEY DIDN/T. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES LOOK LIKE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE WILL ARRIVE BEFORE OR
CONCURRENT WITH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE SO NO EXPECTATION OF
ANYTHING BESIDES RAIN OR SNOW. THUS STARTED OUT ALL RAIN EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH AFTER 6Z...WITH
RAIN OR SNOW COMING SOUTH TO AROUND I-70...AND RAIN SOUTH OF THERE.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALL SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70 WITH A MIX
SOUTH AND ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE OUT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ITS WAKE. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH SOUTH. WITH THE GROUND RELATIVELY WARM BEFORE THIS
STARTS FROM HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THINK IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH AND REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 091800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS INDIANA
TO WESTERN NEW YORK WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MID AND HIGH
CLOUD CEILINGS. A GOOD LOWER LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE
GOOD MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT...PREVENTING FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONFIRM...SHOWING DRY
LOWER LEVELS WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAW UP SOME MILDER AIR FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MICHIGAN.
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE IN LOWER
MICHIGAN. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
AMOUNT OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS QUITE LOW WITH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...AND THERE IS A
FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO FORM. FSL RUC AND HRRR RUC
ARE SHOWING THESE LOW CLOUDS FORMING. IF THEY DO FORM AND HOLD
THROUGH THE DAY...GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY END UP CORRECT IN SHOWING
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S. HOWEVER LIKE TODAY...THE LOW
CLOUDS DID BREAK UP AND THAT COULD HAPPEN TOMORROW. STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP THIS TO HAPPEN. SO I WILL MAINTAIN THE
MILD LOW 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURES.
LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY IS FAIRLY LOW AS
THE LIFT LOOKS WEAK AND THERE IS SOME DRY AIR BELOW THE MOIST DGZ.
I WILL KEEP THE POPS AT LOW LEVELS. TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THE
LOW TRACKING UP THE OH VALLEY WILL LIKELY SPREAD SNOW INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MI. SOME DECENT MID LEVEL FGEN AND DIVERGENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THERE IS ALSO SOME
WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY SHOWING UP AROUND THE DGZ...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT A STRONGER BAND OF SNOW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS ON
THIS. I WILL MAINTAIN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE I94 CORRIDOR.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW AFTER 00Z WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER SURFACE LOW OVER THE OH
VALLEY FOR WED. WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM...THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS
LIABLE TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THE
STEADIER SNOWS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CLIP AT LEAST THE FAR SE CWA.
SNOW ACCUMS IN CALHOUN AND JACKSON COUNTIES COULD REACH TOWARD SIX
INCHES BY WED EVENING. IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP CUT OFF
TO THE SNOW TO THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96. THIS CONTINUES
TO BE AN EVOLVING SOLUTION AS THE NORTH AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
THAT PRODUCE THIS SYSTEM WAS JUST MAKING IT ONTO THE WESTERN U.S.
COAST TODAY...AND THE SOLUTION IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
THE OTHER IMPRESSIVE ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM IS THE COLD AIR THAT
FOLLOWS IT. H8 TEMPS DIVE TO AROUND -17C...WHICH HAS TRENDED
COLDER. THIS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS ON
WED...INTO THE TEENS BY EVENING. THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT QUICKLY WED
NIGHT AND WITH CLEARING SKIES...MINS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND ZERO.
THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BE RECORD LEVELS. CURRENT RECORDS FOR 03/13
ARE 5F AT GRR...2F AT MKG...AND -3F AT LAN.
THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...BUT
THEN TURNING COOLER AGAIN DURING NEXT WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEMS APPEAR TO IMPACT SW MI...ALTHOUGH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
IS SHOWN OVER THE TN VALLEY BY SUNDAY WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW
TO THE SOUTHERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG
WITH A BRISK SW WIND GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL
ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
I HAVE INTRODUCED THE RISK OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
PATCHES OF STRATUS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND THE SET UP LOOKS
SIMILAR FOR MONDAY MORNING...IN FACT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
LOOKS EVEN HEALTHIER. FEEL ALTERNATE FUEL OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS
SHOULD FORM OVER THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT AND LINGER A FEW HOURS
PAST SUNRISE WHEN THE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT. THE END TIME OF
THE LOW CLOUDS IS SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT HOWEVER AS WE WILL NEED THE
WINDS TO KICK UP AGAIN IN ORDER TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS
COULD LINGER TOWARD MID DAY IN SOME AREAS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS SEEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES IS PREDICTED FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL MELTING. TEMPERATURES DO COOL
DOWN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL SLOWLY DOWN OR
STOP ANY MELTING. TEMPERATURES THEN TRY TO MODERATE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE SNOWPACK WILL ONLY SLOWLY RELEASE SOME
OF ITS WATER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH LIMITED RUNOFF WATER LEVELS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STABLE THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
128 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES DONWSTREAM FROM A RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. AT THE
SFC...SRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN LOW PRES NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AND A RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. IR LOOP SHOWED MID CLOUDS
INCREASING WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WARM FRONT INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS. RADARS AND SFC INDICATED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NW
ONTARIO...NW OF THUNDERBAY...WHERE 285K-295K ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS
STRONGEST.
TODAY...MODELS ALONG WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
THE LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN BUT MAY BRUSH THE NRN KEWEENAW
AND THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...MID CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY ALONG WITH THE SW WINDS. EXPECT ENOUGH
INSOLATION ALONG WITH THE WAA TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY LINGER IN THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE EAST WHERE THICKER CLOUDS PREVAIL.
TONIGHT...AFTER THE NRN ONTARIO MOVES OFF TOT HE EAST...THE TIGHTEST
PORTION OF THE 850-700 TEMP GRADIENT WILL LINGER JUST TO THE N OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK FGEN DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHRTWV MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY
DEVELOP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AGAIN
FOR THE KEWEENAW. WITH AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER...SOME FREEZING RAIN
MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...IF ANY PERSISTENT PCPN DOES
DEVELOP...EVAPORATIVE COOLIN...WOULD LOWER TEMPS FOR MAINLY
SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH/S STRENGTH SEEMS TO BE
WAVERING. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PERIODS OF WARM UP FROM PACIFIC AIR
WORKING EAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. CLIPPER SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WARM UPS WILL GENERALLY
TRACK ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BRING A COUPLE
DAY PERIODS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THEM.
THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AT 12Z MONDAY
AND SLIDING THROUGH ONTARIO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. WITH THIS TRACK...EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING ARE LOCATED. THIS TRACK AND EXPECTED DRY SLOT MOVING
THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH
DOES MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
WEST. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WEST AND KEWEENAW. WIND GUSTS OVER THE WEST WILL DEPEND ON
MIXING AND THAT MAY BE LIMITED WITH THE COOLING FROM THE ICE ON THE
WESTERN LAKE. THAT BEING SAID...DID TREND VALUES UP SEVERAL KNOTS IN
THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH MOST SHOWING HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE GEM
(NH/REGIONAL) CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PARTS OF UPPER
MICHIGAN. WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THEY ARE INDICATING THROUGH
THE MORNING...THAT WOULDN/T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF
AND IT/S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE VERY CONSISTENT (ONLY ABOUT A 4 DEGREE
SPREAD FROM THE 51 MEMBERS) ON HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
COLDEST TEMPS...BUT THAT IS LARGELY TIED TO IT KEEPING LOW CLOUDS
WITH THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT ABOUT 120MI FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. FELT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON HIGHS
AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS. HIGHEST TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...WHERE THE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
DOWNSLOPING TO WARM TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S AND NEAR 50. IF KIMT/KESC
REACH 50 DEGREES...IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE MID NOVEMBER
(17TH).
WITH THE LOW SHIFTING EAST INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL FILTER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA AND LEAD TO A COOLER DAY ON
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COLDER AND THEN WITH THE
MAIN COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SHOULD SEE TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE AROUND -21C (25C COLDER THAN MONDAY) AND THAT SHOULD ONLY
PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE TEENS. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES
BASED OFF THE CONSISTENCY IN THE COLDER HIGHS ON THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS.
DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NORTH TO
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST WINDS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SOME BREAKS
IN THE ICE ON LAKE SUPERIOR IT SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL PROBABLY END UP
TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEING COLDER...SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER SINCE THE
FORCING WILL BE AT THE TOP OF OR ABOVE THE DGZ. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE LOWERS THE
INVERSION AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIKED THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS HANDLING OF THE POPS (LIKELYS IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN) AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.
CLEARING SKIES AND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GEM ARE SHOWING LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. THINK THAT SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PWATS
ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SINCE THE GEM PERFORMS VERY WELL
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...HAVE DROPPED LOWS A GOOD 7-15
DEGREES AND CLOSER TO IT/S VALUES. WITH THE TEMPERATURE FALLING
BELOW ZERO THIS PAST EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WE HAVE PUSHED OUR SUB ZERO DAYS TO 56. THINKING IT WILL
COOL OFF FAST ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO ADD BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO THE SUB ZERO DAYS AND IF THAT OCCURS IT WOULD BREAK THE
RECORD OF 57 DAYS (SET IN 1962-63) AT OUR OFFICE.
WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARMING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 20S EAST AND LOWER 30S WEST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH THE
WAA...SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA ON
THURSDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE CLIPPER THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE BEST PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA LIKE THE LAST TWO SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE COLDER AIR
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND PRODUCE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR
LIGHT SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 03Z
MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM 09-15Z MONDAY. DAYTIME HEATING
AND INCREASING W WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP SCOUR OUT SOME OF
THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE /STUCK AT OR BELOW 4KFT/ DURING THE DAY.
THIS WILL BE DESPITE THE INCREASING SFC TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S OVER W UPPER MI AND DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE LOW 30S.
ADVECTION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP LOWER CEILINGS/VIS
OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
FOG TO IFR CONDITION WOULD BE AT SAW THROUGH MID MORNING WITH S-SW
WINDS BEFORE THEY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF THE W.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014
GUSTY SW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. AFTER WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...EXPECT SW WINDS
TO AGAIN INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOUTH OF ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE FCST TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
20 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1244 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED
AT THIS TIME. MESONET DATA FROM WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
REVEAL NUMEROUS NEDOT...NWS...AND RAWS SITES REACHING RED FLAG
WIND CRITERIA AT THIS HOUR. THE LISCO...LEWELLEN AND COMSTOCK SENSORS
HAVE ALREADY REACHED RFW RH CRITERIA. DEEP BL MIXING IS IN FULL
FORCE AND WILL CONTINUE AS WESTERLY WINDS MIX DOWN DRIER/WARMER
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE...WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE BANK OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE THE CLOUDS AS THE DROP SOUTH INTO SRN NEB. THE BEST
GUESS ON TEMPS TODAY IS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. H800MB TEMPS RISE TO
10C WHICH SUPPORTS UPPER 60S. WARMER AIR RESIDES AT 700MB WHICH
COULD PUSH TEMPS HIGHER. MR. DEEP MIXING MODEL...THE RAP...SHOWS
MIXING HEIGHTS REACHING TO AROUND 750 MB FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE HRRR MODEL WHICH SHOWS MID 70S ALSO.
THESE ARE THE WARMEST MODELS. GIVEN THAT KLBF IS AT 39F AT 330AM
CDT WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS...THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST IN THE ONTARIO WITH WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON . A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SETTING UP NORTHWEST WINDS...STILL LIGHT
THOUGH. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO JUST THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...THEN WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITTING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL SEE LITTLE MOVEMENT INTO MONDAY.
LOOKING FURTHER NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL PUSH ON LAND AND INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY. BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE INFLUENCE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST...WITH LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING OVER WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM IS THE
WARMER SOLUTION...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 13C TO 18C BY 00Z
TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER...YET STILL ANOMALOUSLY WARM. CHECKING STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WERE GENERALLY AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING POTENTIAL TO
AROUND 800MB...AND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ROUTINELY TOO LOW
WITH MIXING HEIGHTS LATELY THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM SEEING DEEP MIXING TO 700MB OR SO. THESE
FACTORS ARE FIRST...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO KEEP
WINDS LIGHT AND NOT HELP WITH MIXING...AND SECOND THINKING THERE
MIGHT BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD LIMIT THE SURFACE WARMING SLIGHTLY. THAT
BEING SAID...STILL THINKING HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S LOOKS GOOD.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST LIFT WITH THE SYSTEM STAYS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK FROM WYOMING
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT THIS SIGNAL SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LOOKING AT MOISTURE IN SOUNDINGS AND
CROSS SECTIONS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE ABOUT 6 HOURS OF POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND AS THE COLUMN DOES NOT SATURATE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT BACKED OFF
ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
TUESDAY MORNING.
THE LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES LOOK TO WANE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND THIS SIGNAL IS BEING SHOWN BY THE
NAM...WITH THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SIGNAL IN THE QPF FIELDS...SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOST AREAS SEEING AT LEAST A FEW HOURS ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAYING SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. MAY
HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING A BIT LONG INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT KEPT LOW END
CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WILL RE-EVALUATE ON UPCOMING
SHIFTS. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT SO IT WILL BEGIN AS RAIN THEN AS THE
COLUMN COOLS AND THE WET BULB STAYS BELOW ZERO THROUGH ALL BUT THE
LOWEST LAYER COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SNOW INTO THE
EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...IF IT DOES EVEN
ACCUMULATE DUE TO THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL BE
FAIRLY STAGNANT...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST PART OF THE COUNTRY
AND A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THIS WILL PUT THE LOCAL
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT COLDER AIR WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT THE PRIMARY ENERGY WILL BE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THAT PARTICULAR
SYSTEM. THEN LOOKING INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG TERM MODELS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL AMPLIFY...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
VFR EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TERMINALS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT OPEN TERMINALS SUCH AS KTIF...KVTN
AND KBBW WHERE GUST POTENTIAL TO 24KTS IS ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE...THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...LEAVING A LIGHT WEST DRAINAGE WIND OF 8KTS OR LESS FOR
MOST TERMINALS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING IS EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THE MIXING TO 725 MB
THE PREVIOUS DAY PER KLBF UA SOUNDING. THIS MIGHT SUPPORT THE LOWER
DEW POINTS SHOWN IN THE GEM REG AND ECM WHICH PUSH RH TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...FOR ABOUT 1 HOUR. THE DEEP VERTICAL MIXING
IS OF LITTLE AVAIL FOR WIND SPEEDS AS THEY FLATTEN OUT TO 15 KT AT
750 MB AND HIGHER. THE GEM AND ECM DO SHOW A BANK OF STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOPING AT THE 500M AGL LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PANHANDLE
WHICH COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA...IF...THE ASSOCIATED SFC
TROF ADVANCES THROUGH THE FCST AREA AS SHOWN BY THE RAP13 MODEL. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE TROF ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
PRODUCES A BANK OF SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST OF 83 AND THEN WEST WINDS
WEST OF 83. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE SHARPNESS OF THE
TROF...TIMING AND THE WINDS SHOWN IN THE GEM AND THE ECM THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH CAN BE CONVERTED TO A WARNING IN MANY AREAS BUT THIS
IS A VERY LOW END WARNING WHICH MIGHT NOT VERIFY GIVEN THE WETNESS
OF THE GROUND AND THE PROPENSITY OF THE SUN TO TRANSPORATE MOISTURE
TO THE AIR. WINDS GUST TO JUST 25 MPH AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY SPORADIC. THE RAP AND HRRR WERE THE BASIS FOR THE WIND GUST
FORECAST WHICH SHOWS THE STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS THE PLATTE VALLEYS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-209.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1232 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
THE BANK OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE THE CLOUDS AS THE DROP SOUTH INTO SRN NEB. THE BEST
GUESS ON TEMPS TODAY IS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. H800MB TEMPS RISE TO
10C WHICH SUPPORTS UPPER 60S. WARMER AIR RESIDES AT 700MB WHICH
COULD PUSH TEMPS HIGHER. MR. DEEP MIXING MODEL...THE RAP...SHOWS
MIXING HEIGHTS REACHING TO AROUND 750 MB FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE HRRR MODEL WHICH SHOWS MID 70S ALSO.
THESE ARE THE WARMEST MODELS. GIVEN THAT KLBF IS AT 39F AT 330AM
CDT WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS...THIS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST IN THE ONTARIO WITH WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON . A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SETTING UP NORTHWEST WINDS...STILL LIGHT
THOUGH. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO JUST THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...THEN WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITTING FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL SEE LITTLE MOVEMENT INTO MONDAY.
LOOKING FURTHER NORTH...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL PUSH ON LAND AND INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY. BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE INFLUENCE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST...WITH LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING OVER WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM IS THE
WARMER SOLUTION...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 13C TO 18C BY 00Z
TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER...YET STILL ANOMALOUSLY WARM. CHECKING STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WERE GENERALLY AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING POTENTIAL TO
AROUND 800MB...AND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ROUTINELY TOO LOW
WITH MIXING HEIGHTS LATELY THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM SEEING DEEP MIXING TO 700MB OR SO. THESE
FACTORS ARE FIRST...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO KEEP
WINDS LIGHT AND NOT HELP WITH MIXING...AND SECOND THINKING THERE
MIGHT BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD LIMIT THE SURFACE WARMING SLIGHTLY. THAT
BEING SAID...STILL THINKING HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S LOOKS GOOD.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST LIFT WITH THE SYSTEM STAYS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK FROM WYOMING
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT THIS SIGNAL SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LOOKING AT MOISTURE IN SOUNDINGS AND
CROSS SECTIONS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE ABOUT 6 HOURS OF POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND AS THE COLUMN DOES NOT SATURATE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT BACKED OFF
ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
TUESDAY MORNING.
THE LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES LOOK TO WANE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND THIS SIGNAL IS BEING SHOWN BY THE
NAM...WITH THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SIGNAL IN THE QPF FIELDS...SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOST AREAS SEEING AT LEAST A FEW HOURS ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAYING SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. MAY
HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING A BIT LONG INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT KEPT LOW END
CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WILL RE-EVALUATE ON UPCOMING
SHIFTS. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT SO IT WILL BEGIN AS RAIN THEN AS THE
COLUMN COOLS AND THE WET BULB STAYS BELOW ZERO THROUGH ALL BUT THE
LOWEST LAYER COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SNOW INTO THE
EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...IF IT DOES EVEN
ACCUMULATE DUE TO THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL BE
FAIRLY STAGNANT...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST PART OF THE COUNTRY
AND A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THIS WILL PUT THE LOCAL
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT COLDER AIR WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT THE PRIMARY ENERGY WILL BE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THAT PARTICULAR
SYSTEM. THEN LOOKING INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG TERM MODELS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL AMPLIFY...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
VFR EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TERMINALS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT OPEN TERMINALS SUCH AS KTIF...KVTN
AND KBBW WHERE GUST POTENTIAL TO 24KTS IS ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE...THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...LEAVING A LIGHT WEST DRAINAGE WIND OF 8KTS OR LESS FOR
MOST TERMINALS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING IS EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THE MIXING TO 725 MB
THE PREVIOUS DAY PER KLBF UA SOUNDING. THIS MIGHT SUPPORT THE LOWER
DEW POINTS SHOWN IN THE GEM REG AND ECM WHICH PUSH RH TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...FOR ABOUT 1 HOUR. THE DEEP VERTICAL MIXING
IS OF LITTLE AVAIL FOR WIND SPEEDS AS THEY FLATTEN OUT TO 15 KT AT
750 MB AND HIGHER. THE GEM AND ECM DO SHOW A BANK OF STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOPING AT THE 500M AGL LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PANHANDLE
WHICH COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA...IF...THE ASSOCIATED SFC
TROF ADVANCES THROUGH THE FCST AREA AS SHOWN BY THE RAP13 MODEL. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE TROF ALONG HIGHWAY 83 THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
PRODUCES A BANK OF SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST OF 83 AND THEN WEST WINDS
WEST OF 83. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE SHARPNESS OF THE
TROF...TIMING AND THE WINDS SHOWN IN THE GEM AND THE ECM THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH CAN BE CONVERTED TO A WARNING IN MANY AREAS BUT THIS
IS A VERY LOW END WARNING WHICH MIGHT NOT VERIFY GIVEN THE WETNESS
OF THE GROUND AND THE PROPENSITY OF THE SUN TO TRANSPORATE MOISTURE
TO THE AIR. WINDS GUST TO JUST 25 MPH AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY SPORADIC. THE RAP AND HRRR WERE THE BASIS FOR THE WIND GUST
FORECAST WHICH SHOWS THE STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS THE PLATTE VALLEYS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-209.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1213 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CIGS SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING BUT STILL FEEL CIGS WILL BECOME
MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON AND VFR BY EVENING BEFORE FALLING BACK TO
MVFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH REGARD
TO CIG HTS OVERNIGHT. RAP TENDS TO SUPPORT THE GFS SO LEANED A BIT
IN THE DIRECTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AND SE ON
MONDAY MORNING. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/
UPDATE...
LARGE OFFSHORE LIGHT RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY PULLING EAST THIS MORNING
..LIGHT RAIN ENDING ALONG THE COAST THIS HOUR. AFTER THIS EARLY
MORNING MUCK OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG CLEARS OUT WE WILL BE LEFT
WITH AN OVERCAST...COOL AND DAMP DAY. CONVECTION FIRING EAST OF
THE WESTERN GULF SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROF WILL KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THE COASTAL BEND UP INTO
THE MATAGORDA BAY REGION. ENSEMBLE SLOWING THE EASTERN PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SONARA/CHIHUAHUA PROVINCES AND TAKING
IT SOUTH OF SE`ERN TX EARLY TUESDAY THAT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS/QPF OVER THE COASTAL REGIONS/GULF LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. SUBSEQUENT WEEK DAY WARMTH WITH CLEARING SKIES GOING
INTO MID-WEEK. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AREA RADAR SHOW SOME RAIN STRETCHING MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 WITH A
BROAD AREA OF RAIN BACK TOWARDS VICTORIA. SFC COLD FRONT HAS JUST
PUSHED OFF THE COAST WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S BEHIND IT. UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS HAS 850MB FRONT FROM W OF DFW TO JUST NORTH OF JCT.
SEEMS THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT HAS LED TO RAIN ACTIVITY
OVER SE TX WHICH SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING AS 925-850MB FLOW
WEAKENS. ANALYSIS AT 500MB SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING FROM THE PLAINS
BACK TO THE DESERT SW. WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT OVER
THE S PLAINS WHILE SECOND LOW CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS S
TX. THIS SEEMS TO BE FORCING MODERATE RAIN BACK TO THE SW NEAR
VCT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS DECIDED TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG
THE COAST MAINLY 60/70 PERCENT. 06Z RUN OF HRRR SEEMS TO SUPPORT
THIS IDEA ALONG WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. DO
NOT THINK HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. LOOKS LIKE 1.5
INCH PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL STAY OVER THE GULF. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOP.
BASED ON GFS/ECMWF/NAM 00Z MODEL TRENDS...THINK THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN RAINFALL SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY EXCEPT FOR THE OFFSHORE
AREAS. ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW
DROPPING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
COMING ACROSS C MEXICO ON MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT. THINK STRONGER
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING SO HAVE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS
WITH A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE LOW THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
BE OFF THE GULF COAST BUT STILL HELD ONTO SOME HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. UPPER LOW THEN MOVES ALONG THE N GULF
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING. AGAIN BECOMING LESS
CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT SEEMS THAT THREAT WILL BE
OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. STILL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW AREAS ALONG
THE COAST TO PICK UP A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
GFS/ECMWF STILL ON TRACK WITH NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED
MORNING. NAM LAGS BEHIND BY ABOUT 6 HRS. FORECAST WILL KEEP WITH
CONSISTENT TRENDS OF THE ECMWF/GFS. AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD BE DRY AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGEST WED AFTERNOON
AS 850MB TEMPS DROP SHARPLY DURING THE DAY. MIN TEMPS THUR
MORNING SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S/40S FOR THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRI
INTO SAT TO END THE WEEK. INTRODUCED SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS COMING OFF THE GULF IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO COME TOGETHER WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR NEXT SUNDAY. 39
MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WILL CARRY CAUTION FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT GALVESTON BAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN ITS WAKE. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 53 46 70 53 77 / 10 10 30 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 56 50 71 54 76 / 20 20 30 50 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 54 65 57 70 / 50 20 40 60 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...43