Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/08/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
924 AM PST Thu Mar 6 2014
.Synopsis...
Lingering showers are possible today, along with a few
thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. Dry and mild
conditions expected for Friday and Saturday. A disturbance late
Sunday into Monday will bring another chance of precipitation to
the area.
&&
.Discussion...
Disturbance will drop southeast over Norcal this afternoon
increasing shower and isolated thunderstorm coverage. The best
coverage will be over the northern valley and mountains along with
the Sierra. HRRR model pinpoints Butte county and Lassen area with
best convective coverage this afternoon and have updated forecast
to shift threat into these areas. Small hail will be possible in
some of the stronger storms. Models not showing much precip in the
valleys...but will keep isolated showers in the forecast with
disturbance nearby. Otherwise...forecast is on track.
.Previous Discussion...
A convective band which pushed through Norcal this evening
brought some excitement in the form of heavy rain and lightning.
450+ cloud-to-ground strikes were recorded between 9pm and 2am.
Conditions have quieted down now, with area radars showing
lingering showers mostly confined to the mountains and no
lightning activity. Interestingly, this convection was
accomplished without much upper-level dynamics. The NAM suggests
the main trigger was strong cold air advection aloft combined
with a favorable moisture tap near the surface.
Better upper-level dynamics can be expected today as a shortwave
trough and associated vortmax push through NorCal. Convective
parameters such as MUCAPE look much more impressive than
yesterday evening in fact. Lapse rates remain fairly steep with
CAA aloft. The only component less favorable than yesterday is
less low-level moisture to work with. Drier conditions may limit
convection to cumulus development as opposed to showers and
thunderstorms, as hinted at by the NAM12 in buffkit. If anything
does get going, there will be plenty of shear aloft with trough
passage. Have gone with a chance of showers and slight chance
thunder from Sacramento northward. Snow levels will lower to
around 6000 feet by the afternoon, although it appears light
precip amounts will limit accumulations to only a few inches over
the passes. Breezy conditions can be expected for the higher
Sierra.
Showers decrease quickly Thursday evening as ridging builds into
the West Coast. Temperatures will be warm but not record-
breaking, rising into the 70s in the Central Valley 50s/60s in
the mountains.
The ridge begins to break down Sunday allowing a 1.25"+ PWAT tap
to approach the NorCal coast, while A trough moving into the
Pacific NW provides some weak dynamics. Models are in fair
agreement in pushing a resulting precipitation band across our
area by late Sunday. The best chances look to be initially north
of I-80, then eventually spreading to the whole area by Monday.
-DVC
&&
.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
Pacific frontal system still on track to drop across NORCAL early
Monday with only slight timing differences across models. Dynamics
with this system are not overly impressive. The subtropical
moisture plume feeding into this system is fairly impressive
however with GFS still showing 1.35 inches TPW just offshore.
Still...with relatively weak dynamics...Models showing this storm
will be a low to moderate precipitation producer and with snow
levels mainly above 7000 feet impacts should be minimal. With warm
airmass and some afternoon clearing possible...looking for daytime
highs on Monday at a few degrees above normal.
Extended models in good agreement in building a high amplitude
ridge over the west coast so after a few possible lingering
showers Tuesday morning...precipitation threat disappears for at
least the remainder of the week. Daytime highs under the ridge
will remain well above normal under mainly fair skies Wednesday
through Thursday. Surface high pressure pushing into the Pacific
Northwest will bring a transition to northerly winds Tuesday. GFS
model shows a fairly tight northeast surface gradient developing
Wednesday morning as an upper shortwave drops into the great
basin. Therefore...a period of breezy to gusty north winds will be
possible around the middle of next week. Current extended models
are indicating that there will be no return of a wet pattern for
Northern California through at least next weekend.
&&
.Aviation...
A second Pacific front will be moving across interior Norcal
roughly from late morning into the afternoon. Line of showers and
isolated thunderstorms expected to affect TAF sites mainly central
and Nrn SAC vly from KMYV...Nwd to KRBL and KRDD. MVFR cigs/vsbys
expected with showers and isolated TRWS in proximity of
front...otherwise mostly VFR conditions. VFR all areas tonight.
South to Southwest winds with gusts to 30 knots higher Sierra
elevations today. Sly winds up to 10 knots in the valley.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
326 AM PST THU MAR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK STORM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
.SHORT TERM...
BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV, WITH MEASURABLE RAIN SPILLING EFFICIENTLY INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80, AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MID MORNING. LIGHTNING
OVER CENTRAL CA HAS DECREASED SINCE 2 AM. THIS BAND OF RAIN HAS
MOMENTARILY SUPPRESSED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE RENO-CARSON VICINITY,
ALTHOUGH A RETURN TO GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
FARTHER NORTH, SURPRISE VALLEY HAS ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT
WINDS, WITH A PEAK GUST OF 58 MPH JUST REPORTED AT AN AUTOMATED
WIND SENSOR IN FORT BIDWELL. WILL LEAVE ALL WIND HEADLINES IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH 500 MB TROUGH PASSAGE AND A UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV SHOULD SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 45 MPH AT TIMES.
THIS TROUGH AND JET STREAK PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL (WHICH FAR OUTPERFORMED ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE WITH THE SPREAD OF OVERNIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NV) HAVE
GENERATED SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS RENO AND LAKE TAHOE BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS DO NOT
GENERATE PRECIP THIS FAR SOUTH, THE RECENT SUCCESS OF THE HRRR
WILL BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT AND WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHOWERS
FOR THE RENO-CARSON VICINITY AND MUCH OF THE WEST CENTRAL NV
BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY WAVE IS ALSO PROJECTED
BY THE GFS TO SWEEP ACROSS NORTHWEST NV. THIS FEATURE IS OFTEN
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION DURING THE SUMMER SEASON, BUT SINCE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ARE ALSO INDICATED, WE WILL
ADD A POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-LOVELOCK LINE
THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW PELLETS OR GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS.
AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY THIS EVENING, THE WINDS AND
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AS RIDGE
REBUILDS NEAR THE WEST COAST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER
TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT EAST FLOW ON FRIDAY LIMITING TEMPERATURE RISES
TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY, LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT 4-8
DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY. MJD
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH THE SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY TIME FRAME. IT IS AFTER
MONDAY NIGHT THAT THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE...AND TODAY IS NO
DIFFERENT. WITH SOME CONSISTENCY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...HAVE MADE
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND QPF FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND A
FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR EARLY MONDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME THERE
WERE NO REAL CHANGES AS NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO WARRANT BIG
CHANGES.
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH PCPN
SPREADING INTO NE CA AND NW NV MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH THIS INITIAL PUSH OF MSTR...AND QPF LOOKS A LITTLE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAD INDICATED. ADJUSTED POPS UP A LITTLE
OVER THE FAR NW CWA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY THE TROUGH IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING BUT THERE IS STILL ENOUGH FORCING TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO POPS
WERE RAISED A LITTLE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE TROUGH
WILL HAVE LARGELY MOVED THROUGH. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS TROUGH THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT AND THUS LOWER SNOW LEVELS INTO THE PICTURE. DID NOT GO AS WET
OR COOL AS ECMWF WOULD INDICATE...STAYED SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN IT AND
THE GFS.
HELD ON TO AN AREA OF LOWER POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. ECMWF AND
GFS ARE SHOWING THE TROUGH PASSAGE SLOWING JUST A LITTLE BY THEN.
BUT BY THEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE BEGINNING TO DIVERGE. ON TUESDAY
THE ECMWF IS BUILDING A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE
BOTH SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CARVING A BIT FARTHER WEST...BUT
STILL MAINLY EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS CARRIES THROUGH TO TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WHERE GFS AND GEM WOULD BE COLDER THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT STILL DRY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF...BUT A FEW CARVE THIS
TROUGH OUT. WILL SHOW A WARM UP BEGINNING BY WEDNESDAY AFTER COOLER
TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL ALSO KEEP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY.
20
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...IS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND SHOULD EXIT MOST OF THE
AREA BY 18 UTC. AFTER THAT THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION AS A HEALTHY GRADIENT DEVELOPS. COULD SEE SFC
WIND GUSTS FROM 35-40 KTS MANY LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER GUSTS JUST
EAST OF THE SIERRA IN WIND PRONE AREAS.
SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODEL SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH AND EAST
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE. WILL
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR CIGS/VSBYS TO DROP TO AS LOW AS
3000/3 IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
STRONGER LOW LEVEL GRADIENT DRIVEN WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO RESULT
IN TURBULENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SIERRA AND OTHER MOUNTAIN
RANGES. RIDGE GUSTS COULD TOP 70 KTS AT TIMES TODAY.
FOR THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS...MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING FROM KTVL
SOUTH TO KMMH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. BRIEF CLEARING LATE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG
IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY KTRK WHERE IFR IS POSSIBLE IN FOG
LATE TONIGHT. 20
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE IN NVZ004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ003-005.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
NVZ002.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ070.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
940 PM PST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT FROM 20Z THURSDAY TO 17Z FRIDAY.
INCREASED POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE HANFORD WARNING/
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AND ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 44N/119W...WEST OF THE
NORTHERN OREGON COAST AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. SATELLITE AND RADAR
LOOPS SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS
TIME. A DEEPER MOISTURE FETCH IS BECOMING ENTRAINED IN THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW...AND THIS COULD BRING PRECIPITATION
FURTHER SOUTH THAN WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
BOTH THE 02Z HIGH-RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH /HRRR/ MODEL AND THE 12Z
ECMWF BRING THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH THAN EITHER THE 00Z
NAM-12 OR THE 00Z GFS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
STORM ON BOTH THE HRRR AND THE ECMWF...WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING
FRESNO AROUND 12Z /0400 PST/ THURSDAY...HANFORD AND VISALIA AN HOUR
LATER...AND BAKERSFIELD AROUND 16Z /0800 PST/. THE 02Z HRRR RUN ENDS
AT 16Z THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF ENDS THE PRECIPITATION AT
BAKERSFIELD AROUND 18Z /1000 PST/.
BECAUSE OF THE GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE HRRR AND ECMWF...CANNOT
RULE OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
SOUTH OF THE ORIGINAL POP FIELD...EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
MODERATE DUE TO THE LACK OF SUPPORT FROM EITHER THE NAM-12 OR THE
GFS...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE NAM-12 HAS A 45-KT 700-MB JET OVER THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT NEAR MOJAVE. SURFACE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...REACHING THEIR
STRONGEST BETWEEN 09-12Z /0100-0400 PST/ FRIDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TEHACHAPI PASS AND MOJAVE. PER COORDINATION WITH
WFO OXNARD...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE TEHACHAPI PASS AND
THE DESERT FROM BELOW THE PASS WESTWARD...INCLUDING MOJAVE AND
ROSAMOND...FROM 20Z /1200 PST/ THURSDAY TO 17Z /0900 PST/ FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE TEHACHAPI
RANGE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TEHACHAPI MTNS FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
POSSIBLE THRU 22Z THURSDAY...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR PASSES AND CANYONS IN
KERN COUNTY MTNS/DESERT...INCLUDING AROUND MOJAVE...AFTER 20Z
THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 152 PM PST WED MAR 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...UNDER WEAK RIDGING, SKIES ARE MAINLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM HEADS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST RUN OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS RAIN ACTIVITY REACHING THE YOSEMITE
AREA AFTER 10 PM WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LATER DURING THE NIGHT THE NAM DOWNSCALED MODEL BRINGS
PRECIPITATION SOUTH TO ABOUT MADERA AND NORTH FRESNO BEFORE SHIFT
ALL RAIN OR HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE EAST. CURRENT FORECAST OF A
HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET. FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST MODELS BUILD A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE OVER
CALIFORNIA FOR DRY AND RATHER WARM WEATHER.
THE NEXT WEAKENING SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CLIP THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT AGAIN IT APPEARS RATHER WEAK.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 03-05 84:1929 46:1981 57:1890 31:1971
KFAT 03-06 86:1899 48:1952 54:2011 31:1971
KFAT 03-07 84:1899 48:1918 57:1986 30:1969
KBFL 03-05 86:1929 50:1981 58:1975 30:1923
KBFL 03-06 82:1972 51:1958 57:1972 30:1903
KBFL 03-07 83:1993 51:1919 63:1975 28:1907
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT
/CAZ095-099/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...BSO
PREV DISCUSSION...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...SANGER
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
846 PM PST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS EVENING. AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEVADA WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH, WITH MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG
THE SIERRA CREST. GOOD INSTABILITY AND UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PRODUCED
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80. THE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AS THEY CROSS THE SIERRA CREST BUT
STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN LASSEN AND EASTERN PLUMAS
COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE ABOVE 8000 FEET BASED ON
PROFILER AND RADAR DATA IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. HOWEVER HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD DROP SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 7500 FEET.
THE RIDGE WINDS AROUND TAHOE HAVE DROPPED OFF ABOUT 20 MPH OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS WITH GUSTS NEAR AND BELOW 60 MPH. WILL NEED
TO WAIT UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO FOR THE FRONT TO APPROACH THE TAHOE
BASIN BEFORE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS CAN MIX DOWN IN THE RENO-CARSON
AREA. THE CURRENT NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT TAKES AWAY
FROM THE DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL ALONG HIGHWAY 395, THOUGH WILL HELP
FUNNEL WINDS THROUGH NORTH-SOUTH VALLEYS AND NEAR THE RENO
AIRPORT. FARTHER NORTH, WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH IN THE
SURPRISE VALLEY, WHERE THE FRONT SHOULD PASS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BRONG
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE SIERRA AND EASTERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ON THURSDAY. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK STORM MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM PST WED MAR 5 2014/
SHORT TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THIS FIRST
STORM TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
IN THE SIERRA, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS
COLD FRONT AND UPPER JET APPROACH. RAIN MAY COME DOWN HEAVY AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE CREST. WITH NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
SOUNDINGS BELOW 700MB - SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH MOST OF
TONIGHT, ABOVE 8000-8500 FEET, LEADING TO SNOW ONLY AT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS. AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 6000-7000 FT RANGE BUT PRECIP IS WINDING DOWN
BY THEN. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY WAVE HELPING REGENERATE
SHOWERS ALONG THE SIERRA NORTH OF MARKLEEVILLE THURSDAY, WITH SOME
LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6500 FT.
WHILE WE EXPECT SHADOWING IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA WITH LIMITED
OBVIOUS FORCING FOR SPILLOVER, THE RECENT HRRR RUNS AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT ECMWF SHOW SOME OCCURRING BETWEEN 3-9Z. WE`RE SIDING
WITH THE MORE SHADOWED SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW, BUT I JUST WANTED TO
NOTE THIS SPILLOVER IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY AND WORTH KEEPING AN
EYE ON.
PERHAPS THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH THIS STORM IS WIND IN THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA. RECENT GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING WINDS
INCREASING TONIGHT AS MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW NEARS 50 KNOTS. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS TONIGHT INTO THE 50-60
MPH RANGE FROM SURPRISE VALLEY TO RENO/MINDEN THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY. BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
ONLY MEDIUM AS PREDICTABILITY OF THESE DOWNSLOPE EVENTS IS
NORMALLY TRICKY AT BEST. EVEN JUST SUBTLE CHANGES IN LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND/OR WIND DIRECTION CAN ALTER THE OUTCOME. BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY, GOOD MIXING AND A SOLID PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
YIELD WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WILL EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY FROM
SURPRISE VALLEY-RENO/MINDEN THROUGH TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
LAKE WIND ADVISORIES WILL ALSO BE POSTED FOR TAHOE/PYRAMID.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. FRIDAY/SATURDAY LOOK QUIET. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL
COOL INTO THE 50S (SEASONABLE) BUT THEN WARM INTO THE 60S SATURDAY
AS RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST WE`VE SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK - WITH
UPPER 20S IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS IN THE SIERRA
VALLEYS. CS
LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH SIERRA SNOWFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NEXT
WEEK. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DRAWING
A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY BUT
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PRECIPITATION ONSET. MAIN CHANGES TO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO DECREASE POPS SUNDAY AND INCREASE
POPS MONDAY TO REFLECT THE DELAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAHOE BASIN INTO
LASSEN COUNTY. THIS LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM SYSTEM WITH SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 8500 FEET SUNDAY FALLING TO 7500 ON MONDAY AS A JET
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS
WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPILL OVER INTO WESTERN NEVADA DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES. STILL SOME MODEST
DISCREPANCIES IN RESOLVING THE SHORTWAVE`S PROGRESSION AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND PUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SHOWERS DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH LOWER FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
AGREE ON A DRIER PERIOD THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT STILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES BEGINNING TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE CUTTING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WHILE THE EC BUILDS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. HAVE
SIDED TOWARDS THE EC AS SEVERAL GEFS MEMBERS KEEP THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AND HAVE KEEP US DRY IN THE FORECAST AS A
RESULT. OVERALL, LOOKING FOR MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA AND BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TUESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT. FUENTES
AVIATION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS LIKELY
FOR THE SIERRA AS WELL. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS IS
MEDIUM TO HIGH.
FOR RNO/CXP - S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS. DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AT RNO IS
POSSIBLE, 30% CHANCE, WHICH COULD BRING GUSTS ABOVE 40 KTS AND
ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS AT TIMES BETWEEN 4Z-8Z TONIGHT. LLWS AND
TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TONIGHT ON APPROACH/DEPARTURE ROUTES WITH
SLIDE MOUNTAIN (10KFT MSL) FORECAST WINDS OF 50 KTS AND GUSTS TO
75 KTS. THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A SOLID GRADIENT WIND DAY WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS 30-35 KTS. WINDS FORECAST TO SWITCH FROM S/SW TO
W/NW AFTER 18Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN. NO CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED FROM PRECIPITATION AS THE LEE OF SIERRA SHOULD LARGELY BE
SHADOWED THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF SOME SPILLOVER
SHOWERS BETWEEN 4-8Z.
FOR TRK/TVL - WHILE S/SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES, MAIN ISSUE
IS PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS, VSBY, AND MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION
DUE TO RAIN AFTER 3Z TONIGHT. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH
TONIGHT, ABOVE 8000 FT MSL, LEADING TO RAIN AT TRK/TVL. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z/THURSDAY AS STORM IS WINDING
DOWN. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE TURBULENCE AND LLWS IN THE
VICINITY OF BOTH TRK/TVL TONIGHT.
FOR MMH - TERMINAL IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS INCOMING STORM
THOUGH GUSTY W/SW WINDS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
TURBULENCE AND LLWS LIKELY. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
12-18Z/THURSDAY BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION IS A GIVEN THOUGH.
CS
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PYRAMID
LAKE IN NVZ004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY NVZ003-005.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THURSDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
NVZ002.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY CAZ070.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THURSDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
820 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ACROSS THE PIKES
PEAK REGION HAVE COME TO AN END...SO CANCELLED THE HILITES IN
THESE REGIONS. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR AREAS SW
AND S OF PUEBLO DOWN TO THE NM STATE LINE. /HODANISH
UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WET MTN VALLEY...AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
HUERFANO COUNTY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. THIS
DECISION BASED ON CURRENT REPORTS AND SHORT RANGE SIMULATIONS. /HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
AN UPR TROF WL CONTINUE MOVING ACRS THE STATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SAT...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SOUTHWEST CO THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH PCPN SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WL
CONTINUE SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH ACRS THE AREA. THE MTS AND HYR
ELEVATIONS ALREADY HAVE SNOW...AND AS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COOL THIS
EVENING...ANY RAIN WL CHANGE OVR THE SNOW. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WL GENERALLY FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER AND
NR THE EASTERN MTNS AND AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 OVER THE SERN
PLAINS...WHICH IS WHERE THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MODEL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH...BUT PROBABLY HAS THE GENERAL IDEA OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WL LIKELY OCCUR. WL USE A BLEND OF THE 12Z AND 18Z
NAM...THE GFS AND RAP FOR SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT.
BY LATE SAT MORNING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...BUT SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED OT LINGER OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND MTNS. IN THE MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OVR SRN AREAS. IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MOST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH DECREASED
CLOUDINESS...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVR THE SW MTS AND THE SRN SANGRES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CUTOFF WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT THAT ONLY SILENT POPS WILL BE NEEDED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES REACHING +4C TO +6C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAV AND MEX MAXIMUMS ARE TOO WARM AND
WERE IGNORED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR WITH SNOW COVER OR WET
SOILS. GIVEN THE WARMER MARCH SUN AND THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE...BELIEVE
ADJUSTMENTS WOULD BE MINOR. AS THE STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY...SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT COULD MOVE INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH AS A COUPLE
DEGREES OF WARMING FROM SUNDAY. ONLY HAVE SILENT POPS ON MONDAY
FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE DRY.
.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NEXT STRONG TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION . AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES COLORADO...THERE COULD BE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVER THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. ENSEMBLES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN SPEED...LOCATION AND PRECIPITATION
TOTALS...AND THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.
DECIDED NOT TO ALTER GRIDS FROM CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE MUCH AND
ONLY HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM IN THE AFD. IN CURRENT
PACKAGE...INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED CATEGORY ON THE PLAINS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY. CURRENT MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SYSTEM WOULD BE WEAK.
MOST ENSEMBLES MEMBERS ARE DRY WITH A FEW MEMBERS SUGGESTING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GRIDS FOR FRIDAY HAVE SOME
ISOLATED POPS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHICH MATCHES THE MAIN
IDEA IN THE ENSEMBLES. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
SHOULD HAVE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AT KCOS AND
KPUB AS SNOW FALLS. THESE CONDITIONS WL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SAT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY MIDMORNING.
SOME SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT A KALS WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT CIGS AND VSBY TO BECOME VFR BY MIDMORNING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ072>075-
078>080-087-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ094-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061-063-066-068-076-077-083-086.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
818 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS OBSERVATIONS AND CDOT WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW
FALLING ESPECIALLY OVER VAIL PASS. HRRR AND RAP13 CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT PRECIP FOR THE MTNS AND EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BEST MOISTURE AND ENHANCEMENT STAYING FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS SO EXTENSION OF ADVISORIES LOOKS A SAFE BET.
DID DROP WARNING FOR GRAND MESA WITH LITTLE...IF ANY...SNOW
ONGOING THERE. REST OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 549 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHICH IS JUST
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO HAVE ENDED SO WILL ALLOW THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.
SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT IT TO START
DYING OFF AS THE SUN SETS. REMAINING WARNING AND ADVISORIES CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CHUGS ACROSS WESTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AIDED BY CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SNOW
ACROSS THE WRN CO MTNS FROM RABBIT EARS AND VAIL PASSES TO THE SAN
JUAN MTNS. SNOW TO WATER RATIO HAS BEEN CLOSE TO 10:1 FOR VERY WET
SNOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED ACROSS ERN UT
AND NWRN CO. ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL...HAVE ALSO BE NOTED FROM THE UINTA BASIN TO
SOUTHWEST CO.
WHILE THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND CONVECTION DIES
DOWN AFTER SUNSET...NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE FAVORING NORTH FACING SLOPES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL KEEP THE VARIOUS WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT
IN PLACE... EXPIRING AT VARIOUS TIMES THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MTNS AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST SAN JUANS.
NORTHERLY FLOW COULD FAVOR LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW IN THE UNCOMPAHGRE
GORGE SOUTH OF OURAY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE STEAMBOAT VALLEY AND SOME CENTRAL VALLEYS
TONIGHT WHERE LENGTHY PRECIP AND WET GROUND SHOULD HELP MOISTEN THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER AS TEMPS COOL AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.
FINAL DEFORMATION/SHEAR AXIS ALOFT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT STABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING AND MOISTURE DECREASING. WILL ONLY GO WITH JUST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE
SAN JUANS SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO
SUNNIER SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING BUILDS AND EXPANDS EAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF CALM AND WARMER WEATHER BEFORE WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM THAT HAS GONE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE LENGTH OF TIME THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE THE
EC MOVES MOISTURE OUT THE AREA AND RETROGRADES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPLITTING FROM THE ORIGINAL TROUGH WEST INTO UTAH WITH LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL SOME MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE PACIFIC ON
THURSDAY. WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE RECENT STORMS HAVE
BEEN CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION...AND THE TROUGHY LONGWAVE PATTERN
CONTINUES...HOWEVER THE LENGTH OF PRECIPITATION MODELED WITH THE
GFS SEEMS TOO STRETCHED OUT IN TIME. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
NORTHERLY FLOW OVERTAKES THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL FAVOR CONTINUED -SN AND -SHSN
ON NORTH FACING SLOPES WHILE PRECIPITATION IN GENERAL GRADUALLY
DECREASES IN COVERAGE BY 07Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED AT KASE/KTEX/KGUC/KSBS THROUGH 03Z BEFORE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING. MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED AT
KEGE/KRIL/KMTJ/KSBS BETWEEN 06Z-14Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AND SKI COUNTRY AIRPORTS AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT ABOVE 9000
FEET FOR COZ010-012-018.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAD/JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
548 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WET MTN VALLEY...AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
HUERFANO COUNTY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. THIS
DECISION BASED ON CURRENT REPORTS AND SHORT RANGE SIMULATIONS. /HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
AN UPR TROF WL CONTINUE MOVING ACRS THE STATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SAT...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SOUTHWEST CO THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH PCPN SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WL
CONTINUE SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH ACRS THE AREA. THE MTS AND HYR
ELEVATIONS ALREADY HAVE SNOW...AND AS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COOL THIS
EVENING...ANY RAIN WL CHANGE OVR THE SNOW. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WL GENERALLY FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER AND
NR THE EASTERN MTNS AND AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 OVER THE SERN
PLAINS...WHICH IS WHERE THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MODEL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH...BUT PROBABLY HAS THE GENERAL IDEA OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WL LIKELY OCCUR. WL USE A BLEND OF THE 12Z AND 18Z
NAM...THE GFS AND RAP FOR SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT.
BY LATE SAT MORNING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...BUT SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED OT LINGER OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND MTNS. IN THE MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OVR SRN AREAS. IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MOST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH DECREASED
CLOUDINESS...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVR THE SW MTS AND THE SRN SANGRES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CUTOFF WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT THAT ONLY SILENT POPS WILL BE NEEDED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES REACHING +4C TO +6C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAV AND MEX MAXIMUMS ARE TOO WARM AND
WERE IGNORED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR WITH SNOW COVER OR WET
SOILS. GIVEN THE WARMER MARCH SUN AND THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE...BELIEVE
ADJUSTMENTS WOULD BE MINOR. AS THE STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY...SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT COULD MOVE INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH AS A COUPLE
DEGREES OF WARMING FROM SUNDAY. ONLY HAVE SILENT POPS ON MONDAY
FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE DRY.
.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NEXT STRONG TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION . AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES COLORADO...THERE COULD BE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVER THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. ENSEMBLES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN SPEED...LOCATION AND PRECIPITATION
TOTALS...AND THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.
DECIDED NOT TO ALTER GRIDS FROM CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE MUCH AND
ONLY HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM IN THE AFD. IN CURRENT
PACKAGE...INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED CATEGORY ON THE PLAINS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY. CURRENT MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SYSTEM WOULD BE WEAK.
MOST ENSEMBLES MEMBERS ARE DRY WITH A FEW MEMBERS SUGGESTING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GRIDS FOR FRIDAY HAVE SOME
ISOLATED POPS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHICH MATCHES THE MAIN
IDEA IN THE ENSEMBLES. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
SHOULD HAVE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AT KCOS AND
KPUB AS SNOW FALLS. THESE CONDITIONS WL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SAT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY MIDMORNING.
SOME SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT A KALS WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT CIGS AND VSBY TO BECOME VFR BY MIDMORNING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ072>075-
078>082-087-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ094-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061-063-066-068-076-077-083-084-086.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1018 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. SATELLITE SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO COLORADO. GUSTY WINDS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
FOOTHILLS. COMBINATION OF MIXING AND CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW OF AROUND
35 KTS WILL KEEP WINDS A BIT GUSTY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS
THE HIGHER RIDGES...WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 60 MPH AT TIMES.
COULD SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH NEAR THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS
AS WELL. AIRMASS FAIRLY WARM WITH READINGS ALREADY IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE DENVER AREA. DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S DESPITE THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
READINGS COULD APPROACH 70 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MOUNTAIN
PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS
BECOMES A BIT UNSTABLE. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...SO THE CURRENT ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 31 AND 33 STILL
LOOK ON TRACK WITH AMOUNT OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ZONE 31 AND 1 TO 3
INCHES ACROSS ZONE 33.
.AVIATION...CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH WILL DELAY
THE WESTERLY WINDS AT KDEN AND KAPA TO 19Z PER THE LATEST RAP AND
HRRR. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT THE NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASING
DURING THE EVENING AND MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO DRAINAGE BEFORE GOING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST
WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE EVENING. INCREASING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY 18Z FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. AT THIS TIME...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN
INCH DUE TO EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND 700MB TEMPS CLIMB
TO NEAR +5C. TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS TODAY AS CROSS BARRIER FLOW 30-40KT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-60 MPH RANGE. ALREADY SEEING A FEW WIND
GUSTS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES FROM 30 TO 55 MPH.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MID-HI LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND THIS WILL ADVANCE INTO COLORADO LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANY CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
THIS EVENING AND HAVE REMOVED MOST OF THE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ZONE 31. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE MOUNTAINS
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE DEEPENS ALONG WITH
WEAK QG FORCING. LOCAL SNOW MODELS YIELDS ABOUT 2-5 INCHES IN
ZONE 31 AND 1-3 INCHES IN ZONE 33-34. GIVEN HEAVIER SNOW TOWARDS
FRIDAY MORNING AND BEYOND WILL ISSUE ADVISORY FROM LATER THIS
EVENING IN ZONES 31 AND 34 BUT HOLD OFF ON ZONE 34 UNTIL DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY.
AS FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT...GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT BUT
MIGHT BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TOWARDS THE NORTHERN BORDER LATE IN
THE NIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.
LONG TERM...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER...UPWARD QG VERTICAL
VELOCITIES WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGHER
SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL BE PUSHING
FURTHER INTO THE STATE TO TURN FLOW UPSLOPE AGAINST THE FRONT
RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THIS WILL GET ZONE 34...THE I-70
CORRIDOR MOUNTAINS...GOING WITH BETTER SNOW PRODUCTION. THEREFORE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT THERE AT 6 AM. HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODELS AS THEY HAVE HAD GOOD
CONSISTENCY WHEREAS THE NAM IS TOO FAST AS IT KEEPS THE TROUGH TOO
OPEN AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH. GOOD MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED OVER THE
PACIFIC WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND
PLAINS WITH ONE TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT THAT COLD WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MAX TEMPERATURES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE UPPER 20S AT
THE HIGHER PEAKS TO UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH VALLEYS. THEREFORE
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE LOW. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES TURNING TO DOWNWARD MOTION TO
BEGIN TO DECREASE SNOW OVER THE PARK AND GORE RANGES AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT MOUNTAINS NEAR ROCKY MOUNTAIN NP. CONTINUED UPSLOPE
FLOW SLIGHTLY MORE UPWARD QG MOTIONS WILL KEEP SNOW GOING OVER THE
FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. OVERALL 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER
THE PARK AND GORE RANGES...THEN 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE FRONT
RANGE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING SUMMIT COUNTY. MUCH DRIER AIR UNDER AN
INCOMING RIDGE ALONG WITH DOWNWARD QG MOTIONS WILL DIMINISH SNOW
OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUED
DRY PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY.
OVER THE PLAINS...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S EXPECTED. UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE PLAINS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN COOLING HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO LITTLE TO
NONE. THE MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH ONE TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED.
SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY...AND IS
VERIFIED BY THE CURRENT AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DISPLAYING
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS AIRMASS
IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE STATE FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MORE
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED TO ADD A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS AIRMASS ENDS UP ON COURSE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AGAIN ON SATURDAY THEN MUCH MORE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER WILL
COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS UPPER 60S OVER THE PLAINS AND
IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR NICE EARLY SPRING
WEATHER.
THE NEXT PROGGED SYSTEM WILL BE A LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA. TEMPERATURES LOOK
COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS STILL FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT HAS SHOWN SOME SLOWING OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS...CLOSER TO THE GFS. HAVE BLENDED THESE TWO MODELS WHICH WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THE THE MOUNTAINS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES SOUTH.
AVIATION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS OF 10-20KT THIS
MORNING AND WILL SHIFT WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT ALONG WITH MODEST SURFACE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE STATE. INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS AM
AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR COZ034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COZ031-033.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
730 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING THE SHARP AND POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN CROSSING OVER THE REGION TODAY NOW
BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST...AND FOR THE FIRST TIME
TODAY...HEIGHT RISES ARE NOW EXPANDING OVERHEAD. THE COLD POOL ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALSO BE QUICKLY EXITING TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY MORNING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL HAVE COME BENIGN AND ZONAL IN NATURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND FL PENINSULA. 00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWS A VERY
DRY COLUMN ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATED TO THE LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
IN THE MID-LEVELS ARE RUNNING 40-45+C...AND THE PW IS ALL THE WAY
DOWN TO AROUND 1/2 INCH.
AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT GRADIENT HAS EXISTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY BETWEEN SURFACE REFLECTION CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE GUSTY WINDS MADE FOR SOME ROUGH
CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND ALSO ON AREA LAKES. THIS
GRADIENT IS NOW BEGINNING TO RELAX AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL OF THE PENINSULA. THIS RELAXING GRADIENT AND LOSS OF DIURNAL
MIXING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE INLAND AND ALLOWED THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST. WINDS AND WAVES WILL ALSO
BE SUBSIDING OVER THE MARINE AREA AND WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE WITH THE LATE EVENING COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE HAZARD THAT WAS EXTENDED WAS THE RIP CURRENT
RISK FROM PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTHWARD. RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION WILL TAKE
A BIT LONGER TO SUBSIDE AND LATEST SURF CALCULATION SUPPORT KEEPING
THE MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT. THE SURF AND RIP CURRENT RISK WILL DECREASE QUICKLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
A COOL FRIDAY WILL LEAD INTO A COOL OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL FALL STEADILY AND EXPECT MANY
LOCATIONS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S BY THE TIME THE SUN RISES. IF THE
CLOUD COVER CAN BREAK APART FAST ENOUGH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT...AND FEEL IT WILL WITH THE EXIT OF THE MAIN ENERGY
ALOFT AND LOSS OF CAA...THEN NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS FROM BROOKSVILLE
NORTHWARD COULD VERY LIKELY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
TOWARD SUNRISE. A TOUCH OF FROST IS NOT OF THE QUESTION EITHER IN
THESE SPOTS ON CARS...ROOFS...AND EXPOSED GRASSY SURFACES. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT TOWARD HOLDING ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE
COAST AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 BASED ON LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE AND
SATELLITE TRENDS.
A VERY PLEASANT START TO THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTER
THE COOL START. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PARKED OVER THE REGION WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY RISE IN THE MORNING...REACHING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S NORTH OF I-4...AND MIDDLE 40S FURTHER SOUTH. HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST THE TERRESTRIAL HEATING AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SPORT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ANALYSIS...THIS ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER
60S AT AREA BEACHES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY FROM PINELLAS COUNTY NORTHWARD. STAY WARM TONIGHT...AND
HAVE A GREAT SATURDAY!
&&
.AVIATION...
08/00Z-09/00Z: LCL MVFR CIGS WITH GUSTY NW WINDS INTO EARLY EVENING
THEN CLOUDS LIFT TO VFR AND THIN AS WINDS VEER AND DIMINISH OVER
NIGHT. SCT CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS SAT WITH NE WINDS...BECOMING
ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY HEADLINES
FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW HEADLINE
THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
HEADLINE THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 45 71 56 75 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 48 76 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 44 74 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 46 71 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 38 73 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 51 71 60 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
416 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...ISSUED LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL SE GA AND NE FL FOR
THIS EVENING. OBS AT SSI...NRB...AND SGJ SHOW NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO
30 TO 35 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT AS EASTERN GULF
SURFACE LOW LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA.
.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT)...
HRRR HI-RES GUIDANCE DOING GENERALLY A GOOD JOB...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE
SLOW WITH EASTWARD MOTION...ON PRECIP BAND THAT MOVED ACROSS FL
PENINSULA AND SRN GA. PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE
AREA SINCE 1PM, AGAIN A BIT AHEAD OF HRRR GUIDANCE. OUR HOURLY POP
GRIDS REFLECT LOW POPS ACRS NRN FL...SOMEWHAT HIGHER ACROSS SRN GA
WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEW DEVELOPMENT WRAPPING AROUND UPPER
SYSTEM.
LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW
CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH
THE PASSING UPPER SYSTEM...BETTER COVERAGE NORTH THAN SOUTH. WITH
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT... GOING TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS.
.SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA ON
FRIDAY MORNING...CREATING NUMEROUS...MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LOCATIONS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF GAINESVILLE AND ST. AUGUSTINE. BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING AND
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER RAW DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S FROM THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY MAY BRING SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL...WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH THE MID 60S
LATE IN THE DAY.
SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD EARLY MARCH NIGHT. SOME PATCHES OF FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE NORTHERN
SUWANNEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS LOWS FALL INTO THE MID
30S. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S AT THE COAST AS NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL DURING THE
WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON WINDS TO BECOME
ONSHORE IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WHERE COLD SHELF WATERS WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO APPROACH 70 AT INLAND
LOCATIONS...WHICH IS NEAR CLIMO FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR NORTHEAST/NORTH CENTRAL FL. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS INLAND WILL FALL TO NEAR CLIMO...IN
THE 40S...WITH 50S AT THE COAST.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE DEMISE OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND A SUBSTANTIAL
WARMING TREND AREA-WIDE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW/MID 70S
INLAND...WITH UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SEA
BREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CREATE
OFFSHORE FLOW...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST. LOWS WILL ALSO CLIMO ABOVE CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 50S
EXPECTED REGION-WIDE. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
OUR ARE FROM THE WEST BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF REMAINING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT THAN THE 12Z
GFS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY...MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR WED AND WED EVENING...WITH ISOLATED POPS EXPECTED
FOR THURS AS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE POTENTIALLY IMPACTS OUR AREA.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO ON WED...AND WE MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES SUBSTANTIALLY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK IF THE MORE
AMPLIFIED 12Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL VERIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SLOT ALOFT SPREADING EAST OVER
GULF OF MEX TOWARD FL. PRECIPITATION BAND OVER FL PENINSULA WILL
SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME AREAS WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE PRECIP BAND. HOWEVER...LATEST
HRRR AND OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGEST IFR CIGS WILL BE DOMINANT ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HINT AT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS BY AROUND 14Z FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FROM MAYPORT
NORTHWARD...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RE-DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL
WATERS INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS PERSISTING IN THE 6-9 FOOT RANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK INTO FRIDAY DUE TO LONG PERIOD
SWELLS. BREAKERS OF AROUND 3 TO 5 FT ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 39 53 35 67 / 60 60 10 0
SSI 46 53 44 62 / 70 50 10 0
JAX 47 56 37 68 / 40 40 10 0
SGJ 52 59 45 64 / 30 30 10 0
GNV 47 60 37 69 / 30 30 10 0
OCF 50 63 40 70 / 30 20 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-NASSAU-
ST JOHNS.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
20 NM.
&&
$$
WOLF/NELSON/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
336 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A relatively weak wake low / pressure trough did manage to develop
late this morning behind the trailing edge of the stratiform rain
region. MSLP at TLH ASOS fell 2.2mb in an hour (15-16z), which was a
little lower in magnitude than what the hi-res models were showing.
It also occurred a bit earlier, prior to the 925-850mb wind field
strengthening. Therefore, the wind gusts across the area were a bit
weaker as well, peaking around 30 mph. The steadier rain has since
cleared out of the area, but the low stratus and some areas of
drizzle have persisted into the afternoon. Model forecast soundings
from the NAM and RAP both show a shallow layer of vertical motion
below 5000 ft through the early evening, so we included some drizzle
wording in the forecast. Eventually tonight, a second round of
steadier rain is expected to move through the area as DCVA becomes
maximized with the approach of the mid-level low center. Rainfall
should be fairly light, but models have been consistent in showing
this so we went with likely (~60%) PoPs.
.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
We will finally see an end to the cool and wet weather that has
been entrenched the past several days as we move into the weekend,
although we will remain below normal for another day with cool
northerly winds Friday. The main upper low will SHIFT OVER THE
AREA AND maintain low clouds and a chance/slgt chance PoPs to
start the day tomorrow, with low clouds likely to slowly erode
from west to east during the afternoon. High temp forecasts will
be tricky tomorrow depending on how early clouds can erode. Will
keep WRN AREAS WARMING UP A BIT MORE THAN AROUND I-75, but still
well below normal for this time of year, with highs around 60f.
Locales into central GA will be the slowest to shake the clouds
and highs will likely stay in the lower to mid 50s. Once this
weather system exits, a return to sun and near normal temperatures
will commence quickly with highs in the lower 70s Saturday.
.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
We will remain in a fairly active pattern for the next 7 days, with
normal temperatures and fairly low rain chances for Sunday into
early next week. However, another strong system will be looming as
we get into the mid week with rain chances once again increasing
by Wednesday. Thursday into Friday could see a return to below
normal temperatures behind the next strong cold front.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday]
We expect IFR or LIFR CIGS to persist through the night. Some
light rain will move back into the area overnight, but should not
significantly reduce visibility. Gradual improvement to MVFR CIGS
is expected after 12z, with stratus scattering out and VFR
developing in the afternoon.
&&
.Marine...
Modest offshore winds will sustain cautionary levels through
tonight and Friday morning, before conditions improve significantly by
the weekend. Clouds and rain showers chances will decrease during
the afternoon tomorrow, with light easterly winds and sunny skies
returning for Saturday.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days with
RH well above critical thresholds and recent wetting rains.
&&
.Hydrology...
Rainfall, mostly from this morning but additional showers will add
to that tonight, will average 1-2 inches across the area. These
totals are well below flash flood guidance, so flash flooding is
not expected. However, several points along area rivers may rise
to "action" stage by next week, meaning that some of our rivers
could be "primed" for flooding for the next round of soaking rain.
The next system to look out for comes mid-next week, although at
this time WPC QPF forecast is low, around 0.5-1.0", with higher
rainfall totals over the coastal waters.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 42 59 38 72 44 / 60 20 0 0 10
Panama City 43 60 48 68 52 / 60 20 0 0 10
Dothan 39 59 40 72 49 / 60 20 0 0 10
Albany 39 57 37 72 47 / 60 40 0 0 10
Valdosta 41 56 37 71 45 / 60 40 0 0 0
Cross City 45 60 37 72 44 / 50 30 0 0 0
Apalachicola 44 59 45 66 50 / 50 20 0 0 0
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for Coastal
Franklin.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Apalachee
Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...EVANS
LONG TERM...EVANS
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...EVANS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...WESTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
323 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT)...
HRRR HI-RES GUIDANCE DOING GENERALLY A GOOD JOB...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE
SLOW WITH EASTWARD MOTION...ON PRECIP BAND THAT MOVED ACROSS FL
PENINSULA AND SRN GA. PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE
AREA SINCE 1PM, AGAIN A BIT AHEAD OF HRRR GUIDANCE. OUR HOURLY POP
GRIDS REFLECT LOW POPS ACRS NRN FL...SOMEWHAT HIGHER ACROSS SRN GA
WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEW DEVELOPMENT WRAPPING AROUND UPPER
SYSTEM.
LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW
CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH
THE PASSING UPPER SYSTEM...BETTER COVERAGE NORTH THAN SOUTH. WITH
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT... GOING TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS.
.SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA ON
FRIDAY MORNING...CREATING NUMEROUS...MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LOCATIONS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF GAINESVILLE AND ST. AUGUSTINE. BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING AND
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER RAW DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S FROM THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY MAY BRING SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL...WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH THE MID 60S
LATE IN THE DAY.
SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD EARLY MARCH NIGHT. SOME PATCHES OF FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE NORTHERN
SUWANNEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS LOWS FALL INTO THE MID
30S. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S AT THE COAST AS NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL DURING THE
WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON WINDS TO BECOME
ONSHORE IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WHERE COLD SHELF WATERS WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO APPROACH 70 AT INLAND
LOCATIONS...WHICH IS NEAR CLIMO FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR NORTHEAST/NORTH CENTRAL FL. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS INLAND WILL FALL TO NEAR CLIMO...IN
THE 40S...WITH 50S AT THE COAST.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE DEMISE OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND A SUBSTANTIAL
WARMING TREND AREA-WIDE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW/MID 70S
INLAND...WITH UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SEA
BREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CREATE
OFFSHORE FLOW...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST. LOWS WILL ALSO CLIMO ABOVE CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 50S
EXPECTED REGION-WIDE. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
OUR ARE FROM THE WEST BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF REMAINING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT THAN THE 12Z
GFS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY...MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR WED AND WED EVENING...WITH ISOLATED POPS EXPECTED
FOR THURS AS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE POTENTIALLY IMPACTS OUR AREA.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO ON WED...AND WE MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES SUBSTANTIALLY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK IF THE MORE
AMPLIFIED 12Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL VERIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SLOT ALOFT SPREADING EAST OVER
GULF OF MEX TOWARD FL. PRECIPITATION BAND OVER FL PENINSULA WILL
SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME AREAS WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE PRECIP BAND. HOWEVER...LATEST
HRRR AND OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGEST IFR CIGS WILL BE DOMINANT ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HINT AT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS BY AROUND 14Z FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FROM MAYPORT
NORTHWARD...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RE-DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL
WATERS INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS PERSISTING IN THE 6-9 FOOT RANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK INTO FRIDAY DUE TO LONG PERIOD
SWELLS. BREAKERS OF AROUND 3 TO 5 FT ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 39 53 35 67 / 60 60 10 0
SSI 46 53 44 62 / 70 50 10 0
JAX 47 56 37 68 / 40 40 10 0
SGJ 52 59 45 64 / 30 30 10 0
GNV 47 60 37 69 / 30 30 10 0
OCF 50 63 40 70 / 30 20 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
20 NM.
&&
$$
WOLF/NELSON/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
115 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.AVIATION...
STRONG SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY ALREADY PASSES KAPF...EASTERN TERMINALS WILL BE
AFFECTED BY IT WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. +TSRA WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
40-50 KTS COULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THEREFORE TAFS WILL
BE AMENDED IF NECESSARY. AFTER 00Z...WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
WHILE WEAKENING TO AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014/
..ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FORMIDABLE LINE OF
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. LOTS
OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE GULF. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE
EAST AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS TAKE THIS LINE OF STORMS INTO THE
GULF COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON (HRRR SHOWING 1-2 PM), THEN EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING (HRRR SHOWING
4-7 PM). SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE GULF CONVECTION
OVERSPREADING CENTRAL FL AND NOW ENTERING INTO SW FLORIDA TO THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD SUNSHINE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...AND HRRR DEVELOPS CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE
ACROSS SE FL WITH MOVEMENT NORTH. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN MORE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NOW IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE...AND WILL BE WATCHING THOSE MORE DISCREET CELLS CLOSELY FOR
POSSIBLE ROTATION ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS EAST COAST THROUGH 1
PM WITH POTENTIAL FOR THOSE DISCREET CELLS DEVELOPING, THEN
INCREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. WIND THREAT IS HIGHER THAN A TORNADO
THREAT GIVEN VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH TIME TODAY, BUT NEED TO
WATCH ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC COAST FOR A POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LESSER IMPACTS
INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE (WITH CELLS
AHEAD OF MAIN LINE) ALONG WITH ISOLATED STREET FLOODING. A
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AHEAD. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014/
AVIATION...
A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS A THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE VFR IS CURRENTLY FORECAST, CONDITIONS
MAY DROP TO IFR UNDER ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE
FRONT.
AVIATION...BNB/SI
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE LIGHTNING COUNT WITHIN THESE STORMS
HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY INTERACT
WITH A LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT H5 TROUGH NOW
ENTERING THE EXTREME NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IMPULSE COMBINED
WITH A LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT TO
KEEP THESE STORMS GOING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THEY
SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING UNDER A MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BUT WITH THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
BY MIDDAY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AS IT DOES...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST FURTHER INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT THE SEVERITY REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION.
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR THAT WILL FACILITATE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL
BRING THE LOW INTO THE PENINSULA SOMEWHERE AROUND THE BIG BEND
AREA SOUTH TO TAMPA AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE EARLY CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS COULD ALSO ALLOW MODEST
SURFACE HEATING TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
CLOUD COVER...THUS INCREASING INSTABILITY WHILE REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD CIRRUS DECK
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
POSSIBLY A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
DECENT HEATING AND BETTER THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS THAN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT CAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4C TO -5C.
H5 TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROGGED AROUND -10C TO -12C WHICH WITH
THE GIVEN INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT.
ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. MODEL SOUNDING DEPICTIONS OF 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES HAVE
INCREASED AND NOW RANGE FROM AROUND 100 TO 150 M2/S2 WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO FACILITATE AN INCREASE IN
0-1 KM SHEAR. ALL IN ALL...THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.
BY EARLY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TREKKING
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN FURTHER AS THE PARENT H5 TROUGH BECOMES MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT. BY THIS TIME...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
DRAGGING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY IT. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MORE LINEAR IN
NATURE AND COULD POSE AN ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITHIN STRONGER
LINE SEGMENTS. THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THEY BECOME MORE DISCONNECTED FROM BETTER DYNAMICS TO THE
NORTH AND WITH HEATING LOSS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA FOR GOOD BY FRIDAY
MORNING GIVING WAY TO MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PLEASANT AND
MILD WEEKEND FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A NW-N WIND WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND VEER TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SEAS ALSO SUBSIDING LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 69 81 56 77 / 50 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 81 58 77 / 50 20 0 0
MIAMI 71 81 59 78 / 60 20 0 0
NAPLES 65 76 54 76 / 40 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...17/ERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
933 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014
...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FORMIDABLE LINE OF
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. LOTS
OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE GULF. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE
EAST AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS TAKE THIS LINE OF STORMS INTO THE
GULF COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON (HRRR SHOWING 1-2 PM), THEN EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING (HRRR SHOWING
4-7 PM). SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE GULF CONVECTION
OVERSPREADING CENTRAL FL AND NOW ENTERING INTO SW FLORIDA TO THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD SUNSHINE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...AND HRRR DEVELOPS CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE
ACROSS SE FL WITH MOVEMENT NORTH. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN MORE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NOW IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE...AND WILL BE WATCHING THOSE MORE DISCREET CELLS CLOSELY FOR
POSSIBLE ROTATION ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS EAST COAST THROUGH 1
PM WITH POTENTIAL FOR THOSE DISCREET CELLS DEVELOPING, THEN
INCREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. WIND THREAT IS HIGHER THAN A TORNADO
THREAT GIVEN VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH TIME TODAY, BUT NEED TO
WATCH ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC COAST FOR A POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LESSER IMPACTS
INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE (WITH CELLS
AHEAD OF MAIN LINE) ALONG WITH ISOLATED STREET FLOODING. A
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AHEAD. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014/
AVIATION...
A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS A THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE VFR IS CURRENTLY FORECAST, CONDITIONS
MAY DROP TO IFR UNDER ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE
FRONT.
AVIATION...BNB/SI
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE LIGHTNING COUNT WITHIN THESE STORMS
HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY INTERACT
WITH A LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT H5 TROUGH NOW
ENTERING THE EXTREME NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IMPULSE COMBINED
WITH A LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT TO
KEEP THESE STORMS GOING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THEY
SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING UNDER A MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BUT WITH THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
BY MIDDAY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AS IT DOES...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST FURTHER INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT THE SEVERITY REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION.
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR THAT WILL FACILITATE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL
BRING THE LOW INTO THE PENINSULA SOMEWHERE AROUND THE BIG BEND
AREA SOUTH TO TAMPA AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE EARLY CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS COULD ALSO ALLOW MODEST
SURFACE HEATING TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
CLOUD COVER...THUS INCREASING INSTABILITY WHILE REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD CIRRUS DECK
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
POSSIBLY A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
DECENT HEATING AND BETTER THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS THAN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT CAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4C TO -5C.
H5 TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROGGED AROUND -10C TO -12C WHICH WITH
THE GIVEN INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT.
ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. MODEL SOUNDING DEPICTIONS OF 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES HAVE
INCREASED AND NOW RANGE FROM AROUND 100 TO 150 M2/S2 WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO FACILITATE AN INCREASE IN
0-1 KM SHEAR. ALL IN ALL...THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.
BY EARLY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TREKKING
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN FURTHER AS THE PARENT H5 TROUGH BECOMES MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT. BY THIS TIME...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
DRAGGING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY IT. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MORE LINEAR IN
NATURE AND COULD POSE AN ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITHIN STRONGER
LINE SEGMENTS. THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THEY BECOME MORE DISCONNECTED FROM BETTER DYNAMICS TO THE
NORTH AND WITH HEATING LOSS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA FOR GOOD BY FRIDAY
MORNING GIVING WAY TO MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PLEASANT AND
MILD WEEKEND FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A NW-N WIND WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND VEER TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SEAS ALSO SUBSIDING LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 69 81 56 / 70 50 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 71 81 58 / 70 50 20 0
MIAMI 83 71 81 59 / 70 60 20 0
NAPLES 80 65 76 54 / 70 40 10 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
941 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY
FROM OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND
PROVIDING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE NC/CA COAST THIS EVENING WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND DRY AIR ALOFT ALL POINT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. HRRR MODEL INDICATE FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND PIEDMONT...
SPREADING EAST INTO THE MIDLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS ALABAMA SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S STILL LOOK GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...FLATTENING A LITTLE AS WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. COULD BE A FEW MID
TO HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM
BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUN. DRIER AIR AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
STORE FOR THE WEEKEND OVERALL. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE WITH HIGHS AND LOWS AT OR
JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS SIMILAR KEEPING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH
ALTERNATING WEAK RIDGES OR SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. MAIN CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS TROF PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / MIDWEST WITH SC ON
SOUTHERN FRINGE...BETTER DYNAMICS STAY NORTH. MOISTURE STILL A
QUESTION WITH ECMWF A LITTLE WETTER THAN GFS MODEL...ECMX MOS
GUIDANCE NEAR LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY...GFS MOS DRIER. MODELS HINT
AT SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE PULLED INTO TROF AS IT MOVES EAST...COULD
POSSIBLY INCREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER SC. HAVE IT HANDLED WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...SEEMS REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT. OTHER WISE
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK...LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WIND...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/LIFR FOG
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER FOG DISSIPATES AROUND 15Z
EXPECT VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION AND UPSTREAM AREAS LEADING TO
RISES ON AREA RIVERS. CONSULT OUR WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON ANY RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
545 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
JUST OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL BE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. A COLD
AND SOAKING RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE GULF LOW TODAY. THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE WEDGE-
RIDGE PATTERN THAT IS IN PLACE. THE 05Z HRRR INDICATED SPOTTY
RAIN IN THE SOUTH PART 700 AM TO 1100 AM WITH THE MAIN RAIN
SHIELD REACHING THE CSRA AROUND 1100 AM...THE COLUMBIA AREA ABOUT
100 PM...AND THE LANCASTER AREA AROUND 300 PM. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM TODAY BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE PATTERN. WET-
BULB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH
PART EARLY THIS MORNING SO EVEN WITH AN EARLIER PRECIPITATION
START TIME IT SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WERE
AROUND FREEZING IN THE NORTH PART BUT WITH THE LATER START TIME
AND DIURNAL RECOVERY IT SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID THERE AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
THE WEDGE RIDGE AND APPROACHING LOW. THE GFS LAMP SUPPORTS GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN THE EAST SECTION. WE HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE DURING THE EVENING AND HINT AT SOME
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTTING OCCURRING LATE. FORECASTED THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BELOW-FREEZING LAYER AROUND 2000 FEET IN THE EXTREME NORTH
PART. THE WARM-NOSE TEMPERATURE ABOVE THIS LAYER APPEARS QUITE
WARM. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF MOS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT THE
FARTHER NORTH LOCATION OF CHARLOTTE 33 TO 35. WE RAN THE GFS TOP-
DOWN METHOD USING BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AND THE RESULT WAS ALL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TIGHT TONIGHT BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND LINGERING WEDGE RIDGE.
THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EAST SECTION. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL LINGER
FRIDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE H5 CUT-OFF LOW OVERHEAD DURING THAT
TIME. EXPECT CLOUDINESS AND CONTINUED LIKELY RAIN FRIDAY BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE MAIN LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO HIGH BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND THE COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW FRIDAY. THE
NAM...GFS...AND SREF GUIDANCE WERE IN AGREEMENT FORECASTING TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. DRYING SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM LIFTS FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY RIDGING SATURDAY. UNDER SUNNY SKIES IT
SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY OCCUR TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT
THE GREATER CHANCE HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE
AROUND 30 PERCENT. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS DISPLAY TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR THE LOUISIANA
COAST WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BY 14Z AT MOST TAF
SITES AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
14Z WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR BY 18Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH AROUND 12Z-13Z AND EVEN STRONGER BY 18Z
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
538 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
JUST OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL BE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. A COLD
AND SOAKING RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE GULF LOW TODAY. THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE WEDGE-
RIDGE PATTERN THAT IS IN PLACE. THE 05Z HRRR INDICATED SPOTTY
RAIN IN THE SOUTH PART 700 AM TO 1100 AM WITH THE MAIN RAIN
SHIELD REACHING THE CSRA AROUND 1100 AM...THE COLUMBIA AREA ABOUT
100 PM...AND THE LANCASTER AREA AROUND 300 PM. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM TODAY BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE PATTERN. WET-
BULB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH
PART EARLY THIS MORNING SO EVEN WITH AN EARLIER PRECIPITATION
START TIME IT SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WERE
AROUND FREEZING IN THE NORTH PART BUT WITH THE LATER START TIME
AND DIURNAL RECOVERY IT SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID THERE AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
THE WEDGE RIDGE AND APPROACHING LOW. THE GFS LAMP SUPPORTS GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN THE EAST SECTION. WE HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE DURING THE EVENING AND HINT AT SOME
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTTING OCCURRING LATE. FORECASTED THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BELOW-FREEZING LAYER AROUND 2000 FEET IN THE EXTREME NORTH
PART. THE WARM-NOSE TEMPERATURE ABOVE THIS LAYER APPEARS QUITE
WARM. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF MOS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT THE
FARTHER NORTH LOCATION OF CHARLOTTE 33 TO 35. WE RAN THE GFS TOP-
DOWN METHOD USING BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AND THE RESULT WAS ALL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TIGHT TONIGHT BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND LINGERING WEDGE RIDGE.
THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EAST SECTION. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL LINGER
FRIDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE H5 CUT-OFF LOW OVERHEAD DURING THAT
TIME. EXPECT CLOUDINESS AND CONTINUED LIKELY RAIN FRIDAY BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE MAIN LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO HIGH BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND THE COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW FRIDAY. THE
NAM...GFS...AND SREF GUIDANCE WERE IN AGREEMENT FORECASTING TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. DRYING SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM LIFTS FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY RIDGING SATURDAY. UNDER SUNNY SKIES IT
SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY OCCUR TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT
THE GREATER CHANCE HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE
AROUND 30 PERCENT. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS DISPLAY TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AFTER 09Z PROVIDING
MVFR CEILINGS ALL TERMINALS AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 14Z WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 16Z
AGS/DNL/OGB. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 MPH AROUND 12Z AND EVEN STRONGER BY 18Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
341 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
JUST OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL BE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. A COLD
AND SOAKING RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE GULF LOW TODAY. THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE WEDGE-
RIDGE PATTERN THAT IS IN PLACE. THE 05Z HRRR INDICATED SPOTTY
RAIN IN THE SOUTH PART 700 AM TO 1100 AM WITH THE MAIN RAIN
SHIELD REACHING THE CSRA AROUND 1100 AM...THE COLUMBIA AREA ABOUT
100 PM...AND THE LANCASTER AREA AROUND 300 PM. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM TODAY BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE PATTERN. WET-
BULB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH
PART EARLY THIS MORNING SO EVEN WITH AN EARLIER PRECIPITATION
START TIME IT SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WERE
AROUND FREEZING IN THE NORTH PART BUT WITH THE LATER START TIME
AND DIURNAL RECOVERY IT SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID THERE AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE DURING THE EVENING AND HINT AT SOME
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTTING OCCURRING LATE. FORECASTED THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BELOW-FREEZING LAYER AROUND 2000 FEET IN THE EXTREME NORTH
PART. THE WARM-NOSE TEMPERATURE ABOVE THIS LAYER APPEARS QUITE
WARM. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF MOS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT THE
FARTHER NORTH LOCATION OF CHARLOTTE 33 TO 35. WE RAN THE GFS TOP-
DOWN METHOD USING BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AND THE RESULT WAS ALL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL LINGER FRIDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW THE H5 CUT-OFF LOW OVERHEAD DURING THAT TIME. EXPECT
CLOUDINESS AND CONTINUED LIKELY RAIN FRIDAY BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THE MAIN LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO HIGH BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
THE COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW FRIDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND SREF GUIDANCE
WERE IN AGREEMENT FORECASTING TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES.
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS FARTHER
NORTHEASTWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY RIDGING SATURDAY. UNDER SUNNY SKIES IT
SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY OCCUR TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT
THE GREATER CHANCE HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE
AROUND 30 PERCENT. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS DISPLAY TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AFTER 09Z PROVIDING
MVFR CEILINGS ALL TERMINALS AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 14Z WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 16Z
AGS/DNL/OGB. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 MPH AROUND 12Z AND EVEN STRONGER BY 18Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
952 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
AFTER A MILD DAY TODAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND A BRIEF
COOL DOWN INTO SUNDAY. SPRING-LIKE WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS BRINGS A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 952 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACKS. ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS
IN THE GRIDS MAINLY TO LOWER CLOUD INCREASE A LITTLE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST. NO ZFP OR OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUIET NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL BE PRECEDED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM AND THE RAP TO A LESSER EXTENT HINT AT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
UNDERDOING DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CURRENTLY...AND CONSEQUENTLY
SUSPECT THEY MAY BE OVERDOING POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SIMILAR SETUP TO THIS
MORNING WITH LOCALIZED SHALLOW GROUND FOG. DRIER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
DELAY ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SLOWLY AS IT ORIENTS QUASI-PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW PATTERN. THE
DEPARTURE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
MORNING...WILL WEAKEN THE FRONT FURTHER AS IT COMES UP AGAINST
REMNANT SURFACE RIDGING. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT PRESENT
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...HARD TO JUSTIFY MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE
POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PRECIP BEGINNING AS SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT RAIN...GRADUALLY MIXING WITH THEN CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS CRITICAL THICKNESSES FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. NO SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE EXPANSION OF
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE MILD TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SPRING TEASE FOR
MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. PASSAGE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY SUPPORTS SOME WIND
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MIXING IS MAXIMIZED. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS...SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ENABLE TEMPS
TO RISE CLOSER TO WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. TRENDED WITH WARMER MAVMOS
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION REESTABLISHES BY LATE DAY. WENT A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR MONDAY HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE TEMPS. THINK MANY LOCATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT 60 DEGREES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAVMOS WAS ALSO PREFERRED FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL THERMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON A SYSTEM MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
BRING SOME RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WIDE IN HANDLING...AND AS SUCH
DISCREPANCIES PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DETAIL REGARDING THE
SYSTEM.
WILL ACCEPT MIDDLING CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH LOOKS GOOD TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING COLDER AND GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION BUT THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
ALLBLEND TEMPS WERE REASONABLE AND FEW CHANGES REQUIRED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 080300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 927 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES APPEAR WITHIN REACH AGAIN TONIGHT...SO
EXPECTING LIGHT FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT...ROUGHLY AFTER
080600Z. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING IN MAY TEND TO
RETARD FOG DEVELOPMENT. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AFTER 080600Z...BUT GIVEN THE PRESENCE
OF THE HIGH CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY FOR NOW.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH KLAF AROUND 081000Z...AND
SHOULD BE NEAR KIND/KHUF BY 081200Z. LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER SOME LOWER CLOUD COVER AROUND
015-025 MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND IN THE POST FRONTAL ZONE.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 7 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH 081200Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
927 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
AFTER A MILD DAY TODAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND A BRIEF
COOL DOWN INTO SUNDAY. SPRING-LIKE WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS BRINGS A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FANTASTIC AFTERNOON ONGOING WITH A WELL DESERVED TASTE OF SPRING FOR
HOOSIERS. PRESENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
STRONG MARCH SUN HAS ENABLED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AS OF 1930Z.
QUIET NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL BE PRECEDED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM AND THE RAP TO A LESSER EXTENT HINT AT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
UNDERDOING DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CURRENTLY...AND CONSEQUENTLY
SUSPECT THEY MAY BE OVERDOING POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SIMILAR SETUP TO THIS
MORNING WITH LOCALIZED SHALLOW GROUND FOG. DRIER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
DELAY ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SUPPORT
LEANING TOWARDS WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE
A QUICK DROP DURING THE EVENING WITH DRY AIR PRESENT...WITH TEMPS
STEADYING IN THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SLOWLY AS IT ORIENTS QUASI-PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW PATTERN. THE
DEPARTURE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
MORNING...WILL WEAKEN THE FRONT FURTHER AS IT COMES UP AGAINST
REMNANT SURFACE RIDGING. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT PRESENT
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...HARD TO JUSTIFY MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE
POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PRECIP BEGINNING AS SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT RAIN...GRADUALLY MIXING WITH THEN CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS CRITICAL THICKNESSES FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. NO SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE EXPANSION OF
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE MILD TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SPRING TEASE FOR
MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. PASSAGE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY SUPPORTS SOME WIND
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MIXING IS MAXIMIZED. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS...SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ENABLE TEMPS
TO RISE CLOSER TO WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. TRENDED WITH WARMER MAVMOS
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION REESTABLISHES BY LATE DAY. WENT A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR MONDAY HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE TEMPS. THINK MANY LOCATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT 60 DEGREES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAVMOS WAS ALSO PREFERRED FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL THERMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON A SYSTEM MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
BRING SOME RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WIDE IN HANDLING...AND AS SUCH
DISCREPANCIES PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DETAIL REGARDING THE
SYSTEM.
WILL ACCEPT MIDDLING CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH LOOKS GOOD TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING COLDER AND GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION BUT THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
ALLBLEND TEMPS WERE REASONABLE AND FEW CHANGES REQUIRED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 080300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 927 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES APPEAR WITHIN REACH AGAIN TONIGHT...SO
EXPECTING LIGHT FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT...ROUGHLY AFTER
080600Z. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING IN MAY TEND TO
RETARD FOG DEVELOPMENT. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AFTER 080600Z...BUT GIVEN THE PRESENCE
OF THE HIGH CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY FOR NOW.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH KLAF AROUND 081000Z...AND
SHOULD BE NEAR KIND/KHUF BY 081200Z. LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER SOME LOWER CLOUD COVER AROUND
015-025 MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND IN THE POST FRONTAL ZONE.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 7 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH 081200Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
338 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXISTS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CREATE
AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT OVER RESIDUAL
SNOWPACK. WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP AS WELL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE 4 KM WRF MODEL AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST. A
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS WHICH INDICATE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THEREFORE MIXING AS OPPOSED
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THAT WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING. WE`VE
INSERTED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT, SINCE A LARGE
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKER ON
MUCH FRIDAY MORNING THAN FOG DID THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FASTER AS WELL, REACHING AROUND 60 DEGREES SOUTH AND EAST OF
WICHITA, AND COOLER UPPER 40S OR LOW 50S FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BETWEEN FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST TO IMPACT THE AREA IS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING INITIAL A CHANCE OF RAIN, RAIN AND
SNOW BEFORE A COMPLETE PHASE CHANCE LOOKS REASONABLE EARLY SATURDAY.
THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS LOW SNOW RATIOS FOR THE ENTIRETY OF
THE PRECIPITATION EPISODE. FOLLOWING THE WAVE ON SATURDAY, A SLOW
WARMUP ON SUNDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MARKED WARMUP APPEARS
LIKELY FOR VERY EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND
WIDESPREAD 60`S ON MONDAY. FAR LESS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EXISTS AT THIS TIME WITH THE NEXT WAVE/FRONTAL PASSAGE MOST
LIKELY CENTERED AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS PRODUCES A MUCH DRIER
SOLUTION THAN THE WET ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
STRATUS WILL THIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME SCATTERED IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STEEPENS. AS RADIATIONAL
COOLING DEVELOPS TONIGHT, MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGLY TOWARD
ANOTHER OVERNIGHT WITH IFR OR LOWER CATEGORY STRATUS WITH VLIFR
VISIBILITIES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS A COLD SURFACE LAYER WHICH TENDS TO
SUPPORT ADVECTION FOG.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 33 58 30 40 / 0 10 50 60
HUTCHINSON 32 54 28 41 / 0 10 40 50
NEWTON 33 55 28 40 / 0 10 40 50
ELDORADO 34 58 30 40 / 0 10 50 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 34 60 32 40 / 0 10 60 60
RUSSELL 32 49 25 45 / 0 10 40 40
GREAT BEND 32 51 26 45 / 0 10 40 40
SALINA 33 50 26 44 / 0 10 40 40
MCPHERSON 32 53 27 42 / 0 10 40 40
COFFEYVILLE 31 60 35 40 / 0 10 60 60
CHANUTE 32 60 31 41 / 0 10 50 60
IOLA 33 59 31 41 / 0 10 50 50
PARSONS-KPPF 31 60 33 40 / 0 10 60 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DDC
LONG TERM...DDC
AVIATION...DDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
228 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
...Update to long term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
The dense fog across at least one half of my eastern zones
dissipated and moved east by late this morning. This fog and low
ceilings slowed down the surface heating, and thus I lowered maximum
temperatures in my eastern tier of zones for this afternoon, as I
saw ICT did also. Winds have been increasing in the post-fog
environment, especially in the west zones near the Colorado border.
Under clear skies tonight and with winds subsiding to around 10
to 11 knots, the HRRR and RUC models develop some fog in about our
eastern 1/3rd of our forecast areas tonight. After collaboration
with ICT (here, in backup mode), I have decided to put patchy fog
(not dense) in our eastern zones. I will brief the evening shift
to pass on to the mid shift to monitor the fog, for any possible
dense development. For now, the models are pointing further east
than my Stafford to Barber eastern border for any dense fog
potential. As for low temperatures, the steady southerly flow
will keep minimum temperatures up from last night. Minimums should
range from the middle 30s in the north and east sections, east of
a line from Dighton to Coldwater, and only to the lower 40s in the
Stanton County to Seward County.
Friday will start mostly clear, but become mostly cloudy by early afternoon.
There is an upper level trough approaching from the west, and for
now looks like it will delay until the Fri Nt period as far as
precip goes. A cold front will plunge south on Friday, switching
morning southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph to north at 15 to 25 mph
and gusty by early afternoon Friday. The clouds will follow the
cold front and skies should become cloudy by early afternoon also.
This will help hold down maximum temperatures. Friday should be
colder than today for most locations, with highs ranging from
around 50F in the Hays area, to the the lower to middle 60s in the
southern Meade and Ashland areas.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A few forecast concerns that need to be addressed. The first was to
tweak precipitation types Friday night. Both GFS and NAM are warmer
with the thermo profile than compared to ECMWF. From a meteorological
conceptual model, applied again the top down approach which suggests
that precip will start as rain and then transition to snow by Saturday
morning. Some drizzle is possible across the northern zones Friday evening
for a brief period before the entire profile becomes completely saturated.
Snowfall amounts look to be sub-advisory and in the 0.50-1.5" range.
Right now GFS/NAM/WRF are starting to agree on an area south of the
Arkansas river for seeing the best shot at accumulating snowfall. This
in association with better isentropic lift. Anyway, if the EC verifies,
than my maximums are too high for Saturday. This model is the outlier
compared to the GFS/NAM/GEM, so will bias towards these other solutions
for now versus the outlier.
A very nice warm up is expected Sunday and particularly Monday. Here
a downslope plume and low level warm air advection will lead to very
nice temperatures with 60s/70sF.
A cold front moves through Tuesday evening. Cold air advection lags
a bit and the EC solution continues to be the outlier. Did not stray
too much from the weighted blend solution for pops. Fixed precipitation
type as it seems dubious to get snow with sfc temperatures in the 50s.
Even the EC has model sfc temperatures in the upper 30sF so changed
the snow ptype and made more of a rain/snow event for a buffer. Of
course, synoptic and mesoscale details are very uncertain at this point
but feel it is appropriate to have a blend of precipitation types rather
than to commit to one precipitation type given the large uncertainty
in the evolution and verification of the thermo profile and lift.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
The first 6 to 8 hours, flight conditions will be VFR. KHYS will
quickly improve to p6sm on vsby by 20Z. Skies will clear and winds
will increase into the breezy category. After sundown, winds will
fall off fast and become southeast at around 09 to 10 kt. This
could lead to some fog development, especially after 08z. How
dense is the big question, and how far east will any fog develop.
I decided to go with 3sm to tempo down to 1sm.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 35 58 28 44 / 0 10 60 20
GCK 37 56 28 49 / 0 20 50 10
EHA 42 62 31 45 / 0 20 60 10
LBL 40 63 30 44 / 0 20 60 20
HYS 33 51 26 46 / 0 20 40 10
P28 33 60 29 43 / 0 10 60 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1233 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
...Updated for the short term forecast...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
The dense fog across at least one half of my eastern zones
dissipated and moved east by late this morning. This fog and low
ceilings slowed down the surface heating, and thus I lowered maximum
temperatures in my eastern tier of zones for this afternoon, as I
saw ICT did also. Winds have been increasing in the post-fog
environment, especially in the west zones near the Colorado border.
Under clear skies tonight and with winds subsiding to around 10
to 11 knots, the HRRR and RUC models develop some fog in about our
eastern 1/3rd of our forecast areas tonight. After collaboration
with ICT (here, in backup mode), I have decided to put patchy fog
(not dense) in our eastern zones. I will brief the evening shift
to pass on to the mid shift to monitor the fog, for any possible
dense development. For now, the models are pointing further east
than my Stafford to Barber eastern border for any dense fog
potential. As for low temperatures, the steady southerly flow
will keep minimum temperatures up from last night. Minimums should
range from the middle 30s in the north and east sections, east of
a line from Dighton to Coldwater, and only to the lower 40s in the
Stanton County to Seward County.
Friday will start mostly clear, but become mostly cloudy by early afternoon.
There is an upper level trough approaching from the west, and for
now looks like it will delay until the Fri Nt period as far as
precip goes. A cold front will plunge south on Friday, switching
morning southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph to north at 15 to 25 mph
and gusty by early afternoon Friday. The clouds will follow the
cold front and skies should become cloudy by early afternoon also.
This will help hold down maximum temperatures. Friday should be
colder than today for most locations, with highs ranging from
around 50F in the Hays area, to the the lower to middle 60s in the
southern Meade and Ashland areas.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Two storm systems will impact the Central Plains providing
precipitation opportunities across portions of the southwestern
Kansas region. The first storm system will be during the Friday
Night/Saturday time frame. We have cut back on the POPs for the
Friday (day) period in favor of a slower evolving 500-700mb trough
axis/zone of frontogenesis per the latest GFS/ECMWF. This event will
most likely be entirely in the form of snow as the thermodynamic
profile should fall entirely below zero prior to onset of
accumulating precipitation. The rather positively tilted nature of
the overall trough along with the translational speed of the trough
will not support a heavy precipitation event. We are looking at an
event supporting one to perhaps two inches of snow (maybe isolated
higher amounts toward the Colorado border) which is in line with the
ECMWF model.
The next storm system will develop across the Rockies mid next week.
While the synoptic and all-important subsynoptic aspects of the
mid-week storm system are still rather unclear, the ECMWF and GFS
models do point at the potential for a slightly higher impact event.
Timing is also still a huge question as the GFS and ECMWF differ
fairly significantly in the onset, duration, and ending of the
mid-week storm. It looks like this storm will also be mostly in the
form of snow as it stands now, with significant low level cold
advection occurring before the important 700mb zone of frontogenesis
moves across southwestern Kansas.
In between these storms, Sunday and Monday look to be rather mild
with mid level westerly downslope momentum prevailing. Allblend
guidance of highs 62 Sunday and 71 Monday (Dodge City) look good
enough and no change was necessary off the Allblend guidance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
The first 6 to 8 hours, flight conditions will be VFR. KHYS will
quickly improve to p6sm on vsby by 20Z. Skies will clear and winds
will increase into the breezy category. After sundown, winds will
fall off fast and become southeast at around 09 to 10 kt. This
could lead to some fog development, especially after 08z. How
dense is the big question, and how far east will any fog develop.
I decided to go with 3sm to tempo down to 1sm.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 35 58 27 41 / 0 10 50 40
GCK 37 56 27 47 / 0 20 40 40
EHA 42 62 30 46 / 0 20 50 50
LBL 40 63 29 43 / 0 20 50 50
HYS 33 51 26 43 / 0 20 40 30
P28 33 60 30 37 / 0 10 50 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1133 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Latest low cloud enhanced satellite loop shows stratus slowly
building northwest across north central Kansas along and just west
of the ridge axis. Further east low clouds were breaking up and also
reforming in spots. Areas where skies cleared temperatures dropped
into the teens while near steady temperatures in the mid and upper
20s continued under the cloud cover. RAP soundings suggest that
clouds will linger through mid afternoon out west while the 06Z NAM
suggest around mid day. Expect clouds to slowly dissipate after 17Z
with mostly sunny skies by 21Z. Increasing southerly winds and 850
mb temps warming into the 6 to 10C will see highs in the mid 40s far
northeast to the lower 50s in north central Kansas. Also patchy fog
will continue through mid morning and may become dense in a few
areas.
Warm advection continues through the night across the CWA with winds
south to southwest. Shortwave trough moving across southern Canada
and the Northern Plains will push a frontal boundary southeast. The
front should extend from northeast Nebraska to a low over the
Oklahoma Panhandle by 12Z Friday. Lows tonight will fall back into
the lower 30s with partly cloudy skies in the north and mostly clear
skies in the south half of the CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
By Friday morning, a mid-level trough will be in place over the
Northern Plains stretching toward the central Rockies. Models show
this trough deepening a bit as it advances eastward toward the
Central Plains Friday into Saturday. This deepening trough will help
to push a cold front southward into the area Friday afternoon.
Models seem to be trending a bit faster with bringing this cold
front into far north central Kansas by around 18z Friday and having
it progress southeast of the area by early to mid evening. With this
timing of the frontal passage, expect southerly winds to prevail
through much of the day across east central Kansas with a shift to
the north behind the front across northern Kansas during the
afternoon hours. As a result, could see a spread in high
temperatures for Friday, ranging from the lower 50s near the
Kansas/Nebraska border to the upper 50s and possibly even near 60
degrees over east central Kansas.
Models show modest low to mid-level frontogenesis developing behind
the front, so anticipate the development of some post-frontal
precipitation. This light precipitation may start as early as late
afternoon across far north central Kansas, but the better lift looks
to move through during the evening and overnight hours. There are
still model discrepancies with regards to how much QPF we can expect
with this system. The ECMWF continues to bring the most QPF to the
area while the GFS and NAM keep lower QPF amounts. There is also
still some uncertainty with just how quickly this precipitation will
exit southeast of the area, with the NAM being the fastest in having
precipitation exit the area by 12z Saturday while the GFS/ECMWF/GEM
keep some light precipitation lingering across east central Kansas
through much of the day on Saturday. With this uncertainty in the
timing and amount of precipitation over the area, have kept PoPs
less than 50 percent Friday night into Saturday. As for
precipitation type, with the mild temperatures during the day on
Friday, precipitation will likely start off as rain with this
system. Model soundings are in fairly good agreement in showing the
temperature profiles in the low to mid-levels of the atmosphere
cooling off as surface temperatures drop during the evening hours,
so do not see a warm nose present in these soundings as temperatures
drop below freezing. As a result, as temperatures cool into the mid/upper
20s by Saturday morning, expect any light precipitation to
transition from rain over to snow. If a wintry mix were to occur, it
should be very short-lived. With the frontogenetical forcing
shifting east of the area by Saturday morning, any lingering
precipitation during the day on Saturday looks to be supported by
some isentropic lift within the 295k-310k layer. High temperatures
for Saturday look to reach into the mid/upper 30s to low 40s, so
could see precipitation transitioning from snow back over to rain
during the late morning and afternoon hours with any lingering light
precipitation. Precipitation amounts with this system look to be
light, with snow accumulations likely around one inch or less.
This mid-level trough will progress east of the area on Sunday with
surface high pressure moving in behind this system Saturday night
and progressing into the southeastern U.S. by Sunday. As a result,
expect southwesterly surface flow on Sunday which will aid in decent
waa and temperatures moderating back into the mid/upper 50s and
possibly even low 60s across north central Kansas as models show a
thermal ridge building in across western Kansas. Monday continues to
look to be the warmest day in the forecast as the steady southwesterly
flow further supports waa through the day. Have trended a few
degrees warmer with highs in the mid/upper 60s and possibly even
into the lower 70s over north central Kansas as that well-pronounced
thermal ridge remains in place just west of the area.
Models show another cold front tracking over the area sometime
Monday night into Tuesday with some modest post-frontal lift
present. GFS/ECMWF both pick up on the potential for some
precipitation, especially across northern and far northeast Kansas
Tuesday into Wednesday, however there is still a great deal of
uncertainty with the timing and tracking of this system so only have
slight to low-end chance PoPs in for that period. Expect a bit of a
downward trend with temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with a
northerly surface flow in place, resulting in highs dropping back into
the 40s by Wednesday. While most of this precipitation looks to stay
in the form of rain, low temperatures Tuesday night may drop into
the low/mid 30s so cannot rule out a mix of rain/snow overnight into
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Lack of strong mixing in the boundary layer has held on to the
fog/stratus at KMHK through the afternoon as the IFR stratus
gradually scatters out after 22Z. Edge of stratus deck should stay
west of KTOP/KFOE through the afternoon period. Latest sounding
profilers from short term guidance suggests another fog and/or status
event to set up early Friday morning. Models vary on lowest
visibility however the lighter winds at KMHK may result in IFR and
LIFR conditions after 07Z. Left IFR stratus at KTOP/KFOE after 07Z
as boundary layer remains more mixed. The stratus and fog should
linger once again through at least mid morning Friday.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Bowen
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TOPEKA KS
1048 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Made changes to the diurnal temperature trend for this afternoon
as latest satellite observations show widespread fog lingering
across north central and northeast Kansas. Latest obs at 10 AM indicate
temperatures lingering in the upper 20s to mid 30s. RAP and HRRR
profilers suggest as southerly winds increase after 12 PM, the fog
should begin to lift. However, the cooler temps this morning have
resulted in lowering high temperatures across the area, especially
for north central Kansas. Overall readings range from the low 50s
in east central Kansas, to the lower and middle 40s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Latest low cloud enhanced satellite loop shows stratus slowly
building northwest across north central Kansas along and just west
of the ridge axis. Further east low clouds were breaking up and also
reforming in spots. Areas where skies cleared temperatures dropped
into the teens while near steady temperatures in the mid and upper
20s continued under the cloud cover. RAP soundings suggest that
clouds will linger through mid afternoon out west while the 06Z NAM
suggest around mid day. Expect clouds to slowly dissipate after 17Z
with mostly sunny skies by 21Z. Increasing southerly winds and 850
mb temps warming into the 6 to 10C will see highs in the mid 40s far
northeast to the lower 50s in north central Kansas. Also patchy fog
will continue through mid morning and may become dense in a few
areas.
Warm advection continues through the night across the CWA with winds
south to southwest. Shortwave trough moving across southern Canada
and the Northern Plains will push a frontal boundary southeast. The
front should extend from northeast Nebraska to a low over the
Oklahoma Panhandle by 12Z Friday. Lows tonight will fall back into
the lower 30s with partly cloudy skies in the north and mostly clear
skies in the south half of the CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
By Friday morning, a mid-level trough will be in place over the
Northern Plains stretching toward the central Rockies. Models show
this trough deepening a bit as it advances eastward toward the
Central Plains Friday into Saturday. This deepening trough will help
to push a cold front southward into the area Friday afternoon.
Models seem to be trending a bit faster with bringing this cold
front into far north central Kansas by around 18z Friday and having
it progress southeast of the area by early to mid evening. With this
timing of the frontal passage, expect southerly winds to prevail
through much of the day across east central Kansas with a shift to
the north behind the front across northern Kansas during the
afternoon hours. As a result, could see a spread in high
temperatures for Friday, ranging from the lower 50s near the
Kansas/Nebraska border to the upper 50s and possibly even near 60
degrees over east central Kansas.
Models show modest low to mid-level frontogenesis developing behind
the front, so anticipate the development of some post-frontal
precipitation. This light precipitation may start as early as late
afternoon across far north central Kansas, but the better lift looks
to move through during the evening and overnight hours. There are
still model discrepancies with regards to how much QPF we can expect
with this system. The ECMWF continues to bring the most QPF to the
area while the GFS and NAM keep lower QPF amounts. There is also
still some uncertainty with just how quickly this precipitation will
exit southeast of the area, with the NAM being the fastest in having
precipitation exit the area by 12z Saturday while the GFS/ECMWF/GEM
keep some light precipitation lingering across east central Kansas
through much of the day on Saturday. With this uncertainty in the
timing and amount of precipitation over the area, have kept PoPs
less than 50 percent Friday night into Saturday. As for
precipitation type, with the mild temperatures during the day on
Friday, precipitation will likely start off as rain with this
system. Model soundings are in fairly good agreement in showing the
temperature profiles in the low to mid-levels of the atmosphere
cooling off as surface temperatures drop during the evening hours,
so do not see a warm nose present in these soundings as temperatures
drop below freezing. As a result, as temperatures cool into the mid/upper
20s by Saturday morning, expect any light precipitation to
transition from rain over to snow. If a wintry mix were to occur, it
should be very short-lived. With the frontogenetical forcing
shifting east of the area by Saturday morning, any lingering
precipitation during the day on Saturday looks to be supported by
some isentropic lift within the 295k-310k layer. High temperatures
for Saturday look to reach into the mid/upper 30s to low 40s, so
could see precipitation transitioning from snow back over to rain
during the late morning and afternoon hours with any lingering light
precipitation. Precipitation amounts with this system look to be
light, with snow accumulations likely around one inch or less.
This mid-level trough will progress east of the area on Sunday with
surface high pressure moving in behind this system Saturday night
and progressing into the southeastern U.S. by Sunday. As a result,
expect southwesterly surface flow on Sunday which will aid in decent
waa and temperatures moderating back into the mid/upper 50s and
possibly even low 60s across north central Kansas as models show a
thermal ridge building in across western Kansas. Monday continues to
look to be the warmest day in the forecast as the steady southwesterly
flow further supports waa through the day. Have trended a few
degrees warmer with highs in the mid/upper 60s and possibly even
into the lower 70s over north central Kansas as that well-pronounced
thermal ridge remains in place just west of the area.
Models show another cold front tracking over the area sometime
Monday night into Tuesday with some modest post-frontal lift
present. GFS/ECMWF both pick up on the potential for some
precipitation, especially across northern and far northeast Kansas
Tuesday into Wednesday, however there is still a great deal of
uncertainty with the timing and tracking of this system so only have
slight to low-end chance PoPs in for that period. Expect a bit of a
downward trend with temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with a
northerly surface flow in place, resulting in highs dropping back into
the 40s by Wednesday. While most of this precipitation looks to stay
in the form of rain, low temperatures Tuesday night may drop into
the low/mid 30s so cannot rule out a mix of rain/snow overnight into
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Stratus is the main concern for the short term with the terminals
this morning. LIFR stratus cigs lay just west of TOP and FOE, but
are occurring at MHK. Latest trends on satellite show stratus
moving off slowly west or holding west of TOP and FOE. IFR/MVFR
vsbys will continue through 15Z with some LIFR vsbys possible.
Forecast soundings from the RAP suggest that stratus will begin to
breakup in the 15Z-18Z time frame, with VFR expected for the rest
of the period. Calm winds will become southeast near 8 kts, then
south after 14Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Bowen
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
540 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Latest low cloud enhanced satellite loop shows stratus slowly
building northwest across north central Kansas along and just west
of the ridge axis. Further east low clouds were breaking up and also
reforming in spots. Areas where skies cleared temperatures dropped
into the teens while near steady temperatures in the mid and upper
20s continued under the cloud cover. RAP soundings suggest that
clouds will linger through mid afternoon out west while the 06Z NAM
suggest around mid day. Expect clouds to slowly dissipate after 17Z
with mostly sunny skies by 21Z. Increasing southerly winds and 850
mb temps warming into the 6 to 10C will see highs in the mid 40s far
northeast to the lower 50s in north central Kansas. Also patchy fog
will continue through mid morning and may become dense in a few
areas.
Warm advection continues through the night across the CWA with winds
south to southwest. Shortwave trough moving across southern Canada
and the Northern Plains will push a frontal boundary southeast. The
front should extend from northeast Nebraska to a low over the
Oklahoma Panhandle by 12Z Friday. Lows tonight will fall back into
the lower 30s with partly cloudy skies in the north and mostly clear
skies in the south half of the CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
By Friday morning, a mid-level trough will be in place over the
Northern Plains stretching toward the central Rockies. Models show
this trough deepening a bit as it advances eastward toward the
Central Plains Friday into Saturday. This deepening trough will help
to push a cold front southward into the area Friday afternoon.
Models seem to be trending a bit faster with bringing this cold
front into far north central Kansas by around 18z Friday and having
it progress southeast of the area by early to mid evening. With this
timing of the frontal passage, expect southerly winds to prevail
through much of the day across east central Kansas with a shift to
the north behind the front across northern Kansas during the
afternoon hours. As a result, could see a spread in high
temperatures for Friday, ranging from the lower 50s near the
Kansas/Nebraska border to the upper 50s and possibly even near 60
degrees over east central Kansas.
Models show modest low to mid-level frontogenesis developing behind
the front, so anticipate the development of some post-frontal
precipitation. This light precipitation may start as early as late
afternoon across far north central Kansas, but the better lift looks
to move through during the evening and overnight hours. There are
still model discrepancies with regards to how much QPF we can expect
with this system. The ECMWF continues to bring the most QPF to the
area while the GFS and NAM keep lower QPF amounts. There is also
still some uncertainty with just how quickly this precipitation will
exit southeast of the area, with the NAM being the fastest in having
precipitation exit the area by 12z Saturday while the GFS/ECMWF/GEM
keep some light precipitation lingering across east central Kansas
through much of the day on Saturday. With this uncertainty in the
timing and amount of precipitation over the area, have kept PoPs
less than 50 percent Friday night into Saturday. As for
precipitation type, with the mild temperatures during the day on
Friday, precipitation will likely start off as rain with this
system. Model soundings are in fairly good agreement in showing the
temperature profiles in the low to mid-levels of the atmosphere
cooling off as surface temperatures drop during the evening hours,
so do not see a warm nose present in these soundings as temperatures
drop below freezing. As a result, as temperatures cool into the mid/upper
20s by Saturday morning, expect any light precipitation to
transition from rain over to snow. If a wintry mix were to occur, it
should be very short-lived. With the frontogenetical forcing
shifting east of the area by Saturday morning, any lingering
precipitation during the day on Saturday looks to be supported by
some isentropic lift within the 295k-310k layer. High temperatures
for Saturday look to reach into the mid/upper 30s to low 40s, so
could see precipitation transitioning from snow back over to rain
during the late morning and afternoon hours with any lingering light
precipitation. Precipitation amounts with this system look to be
light, with snow accumulations likely around one inch or less.
This mid-level trough will progress east of the area on Sunday with
surface high pressure moving in behind this system Saturday night
and progressing into the southeastern U.S. by Sunday. As a result,
expect southwesterly surface flow on Sunday which will aid in decent
waa and temperatures moderating back into the mid/upper 50s and
possibly even low 60s across north central Kansas as models show a
thermal ridge building in across western Kansas. Monday continues to
look to be the warmest day in the forecast as the steady southwesterly
flow further supports waa through the day. Have trended a few
degrees warmer with highs in the mid/upper 60s and possibly even
into the lower 70s over north central Kansas as that well-pronounced
thermal ridge remains in place just west of the area.
Models show another cold front tracking over the area sometime
Monday night into Tuesday with some modest post-frontal lift
present. GFS/ECMWF both pick up on the potential for some
precipitation, especially across northern and far northeast Kansas
Tuesday into Wednesday, however there is still a great deal of
uncertainty with the timing and tracking of this system so only have
slight to low-end chance PoPs in for that period. Expect a bit of a
downward trend with temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with a
northerly surface flow in place, resulting in highs dropping back into
the 40s by Wednesday. While most of this precipitation looks to stay
in the form of rain, low temperatures Tuesday night may drop into
the low/mid 30s so cannot rule out a mix of rain/snow overnight into
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Stratus is the main concern for the short term with the terminals
this morning. LIFR stratus cigs lay just west of TOP and FOE, but
are occurring at MHK. Latest trends on satellite show stratus
moving off slowly west or holding west of TOP and FOE. IFR/MVFR
vsbys will continue through 15Z with some LIFR vsbys possible.
Forecast soundings from the RAP suggest that stratus will begin to
breakup in the 15Z-18Z time frame, with VFR expected for the rest
of the period. Calm winds will become southeast near 8 kts, then
south after 14Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
356 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Latest low cloud enhanced satellite loop shows stratus slowly
building northwest across north central Kansas along and just west
of the ridge axis. Further east low clouds were breaking up and also
reforming in spots. Areas where skies cleared temperatures dropped
into the teens while near steady temperatures in the mid and upper
20s continued under the cloud cover. RAP soundings suggest that
clouds will linger through mid afternoon out west while the 06Z NAM
suggest around mid day. Expect clouds to slowly dissipate after 17Z
with mostly sunny skies by 21Z. Increasing southerly winds and 850
mb temps warming into the 6 to 10C will see highs in the mid 40s far
northeast to the lower 50s in north central Kansas. Also patchy fog
will continue through mid morning and may become dense in a few
areas.
Warm advection continues through the night across the CWA with winds
south to southwest. Shortwave trough moving across southern Canada
and the Northern Plains will push a frontal boundary southeast. The
front should extend from northeast Nebraska to a low over the
Oklahoma Panhandle by 12Z Friday. Lows tonight will fall back into
the lower 30s with partly cloudy skies in the north and mostly clear
skies in the south half of the CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
By Friday morning, a mid-level trough will be in place over the
Northern Plains stretching toward the central Rockies. Models show
this trough deepening a bit as it advances eastward toward the
Central Plains Friday into Saturday. This deepening trough will help
to push a cold front southward into the area Friday afternoon.
Models seem to be trending a bit faster with bringing this cold
front into far north central Kansas by around 18z Friday and having
it progress southeast of the area by early to mid evening. With this
timing of the frontal passage, expect southerly winds to prevail
through much of the day across east central Kansas with a shift to
the north behind the front across northern Kansas during the
afternoon hours. As a result, could see a spread in high
temperatures for Friday, ranging from the lower 50s near the
Kansas/Nebraska border to the upper 50s and possibly even near 60
degrees over east central Kansas.
Models show modest low to mid-level frontogenesis developing behind
the front, so anticipate the development of some post-frontal
precipitation. This light precipitation may start as early as late
afternoon across far north central Kansas, but the better lift looks
to move through during the evening and overnight hours. There are
still model discrepancies with regards to how much QPF we can expect
with this system. The ECMWF continues to bring the most QPF to the
area while the GFS and NAM keep lower QPF amounts. There is also
still some uncertainty with just how quickly this precipitation will
exit southeast of the area, with the NAM being the fastest in having
precipitation exit the area by 12z Saturday while the GFS/ECMWF/GEM
keep some light precipitation lingering across east central Kansas
through much of the day on Saturday. With this uncertainty in the
timing and amount of precipitation over the area, have kept PoPs
less than 50 percent Friday night into Saturday. As for
precipitation type, with the mild temperatures during the day on
Friday, precipitation will likely start off as rain with this
system. Model soundings are in fairly good agreement in showing the
temperature profiles in the low to mid-levels of the atmosphere
cooling off as surface temperatures drop during the evening hours,
so do not see a warm nose present in these soundings as temperatures
drop below freezing. As a result, as temperatures cool into the mid/upper
20s by Saturday morning, expect any light precipitation to
transition from rain over to snow. If a wintry mix were to occur, it
should be very short-lived. With the frontogenetical forcing
shifting east of the area by Saturday morning, any lingering
precipitation during the day on Saturday looks to be supported by
some isentropic lift within the 295k-310k layer. High temperatures
for Saturday look to reach into the mid/upper 30s to low 40s, so
could see precipitation transitioning from snow back over to rain
during the late morning and afternoon hours with any lingering light
precipitation. Precipitation amounts with this system look to be
light, with snow accumulations likely around one inch or less.
This mid-level trough will progress east of the area on Sunday with
surface high pressure moving in behind this system Saturday night
and progressing into the southeastern U.S. by Sunday. As a result,
expect southwesterly surface flow on Sunday which will aid in decent
waa and temperatures moderating back into the mid/upper 50s and
possibly even low 60s across north central Kansas as models show a
thermal ridge building in across western Kansas. Monday continues to
look to be the warmest day in the forecast as the steady southwesterly
flow further supports waa through the day. Have trended a few
degrees warmer with highs in the mid/upper 60s and possibly even
into the lower 70s over north central Kansas as that well-pronounced
thermal ridge remains in place just west of the area.
Models show another cold front tracking over the area sometime
Monday night into Tuesday with some modest post-frontal lift
present. GFS/ECMWF both pick up on the potential for some
precipitation, especially across northern and far northeast Kansas
Tuesday into Wednesday, however there is still a great deal of
uncertainty with the timing and tracking of this system so only have
slight to low-end chance PoPs in for that period. Expect a bit of a
downward trend with temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with a
northerly surface flow in place, resulting in highs dropping back into
the 40s by Wednesday. While most of this precipitation looks to stay
in the form of rain, low temperatures Tuesday night may drop into
the low/mid 30s so cannot rule out a mix of rain/snow overnight into
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
Expect stratus ceilings that will vary between MVFR and VFR
through the night. KFOE may see periods of IFR ceilings.
Visibilities should be around 4SM, though if skies clear for a
while later tonight then patchy ground fog may develop. Model
forecast soundings show the boundary layer mixing deep enough for
scattered stratus by the mid and late morning hours. Expect VFR
conditions through the afternoon and evening.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1140 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME.
DRY SLOT IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY KGPT NOT
REPORTING LOW CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. MOST CEILINGS IN THE
FL005-FL012 RANGE. PATCHES OF -RA/-DZ ARE REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS 1 TO 2 SM IN AREAS. BULK OF PRECIPITATION
AND LOW VISIBILITIES SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD NEAR 00Z. MOST AREAS
WILL HOLD ONTO IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR
ANTICIPATED BY 15Z ON FRIDAY. 35
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...
A 1012MB SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WAS ACCOMPANIED
BY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 200 MILES SE OF MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER LARGE DIVERGENCE STRUCTURE ALOFT.
MEANWHILE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LOUISIANA MOVING EASTWARD WITH
YET ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE BASE OF TROUGH
OVER NE TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE LOCAL AREA WAS CURRENTLY IN A
RELATIVE DRY SLOT BETWEEN SYSTEMS THAT SHOULD FILL DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS UNDER INCREASING DYNAMICS AND OMEGA BY 18Z. GFS
TIME-HEIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SHARP INFLUENCES FROM COLD
POOL TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT BUT STILL MAINTAIN A
PRECIPITATION LOADED WARMER PSEUDO PROFILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO
PROVIDE SHOWERS INTERSPERSED WITHIN STRATIFORM RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND WRF 3KM LOCAL SCALE MODELS AGREE ON ONSET
OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AROUND 18Z AS COLD POOL PASSES
OVERHEAD FROM WEST-TO-EAST. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE HOURLY
POPS WITH GENERALLY 20 PERCENT LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING
INCREMENTING UPWARDS TO 70 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN
WALKING DOWN AGAIN THIS EVENING. DESPITE DYNAMIC COOLING
ALOFT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR A SLOW OR STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND TODAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPS. AFTER THIS FEATURE WORKS OUT OF
THE AREA TODAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
FEATURE A WARMING TREND UNDER ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
LONG TERM...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH SHORT WAVELENGTH NATURE OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GREATER DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE WHETHER TO
SYNC THE FLOW OR MAINTAIN DISCONTINUOUS SPACING OF THE INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES BOTH IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES. THE ECMWF
INDICATES A LARGE ANOMALY LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH
FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OVER WESTERN MEXICO VIA A REX BLOCK
PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT THEN PROGRESSES EAST WHILE
MAINTAINING CONNECTIVITY WITH NORTHERN BRANCH CYCLONE...WITH YET
THE NEXT KICKER ON ITS HEALS IN THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THE
SURFACE REFLECTION LOW REMAINS RATHER WEAKLY INDICATED PER ECMWF.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS SHOWS A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERN BRANCH CYCLONE
ALOFT THAT INDUCES A 1006MB BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH
CONNECTION TO THE LAGGING NORTHERN SYSTEM OVER TEXAS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALL THAT SAID...THE BULK OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT CONSIDERATIONS OVER
LAND AREAS FOR TUESDAY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF ANY GULF LOW THAT DOES
FORM AND INTEGRITY OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...WHICH SHOULD BE
PRETTY ROBUST BY EITHER MODEL`S SCENARIO. THE ECMWF MAY BE
SLIGHTLY MORE PROBLEMATIC FOR LAND AREAS GIVEN COLD POOL PASSAGE
THAT MAY DESTABILIZE COLUMN FOR SOME SMALL HAIL CONSIDERATIONS. AT
THIS TIME...LEANING TOWARDS GFS BUT STILL RESERVING SOME CAUTIOUS
CONFIDENCE ON ANY EXPECTED OUTCOMES. NEXT BIG DIFFERENCE COMES ON
ENSUING SYSTEM. BOTH SHOW CONSIDERABLE COOLING FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BUT THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER FREEZE OR AT LEAST
KILLING FROST SITUATION FROM THE 14TH. GIVEN THE TENDENCIES OF
THIS COLD WINTER...WOULD NOT THINK TOO FAR-FETCHED DESPITE THE
LATENESS OF SUCH COLD AIR. IT WOULD BE RARE IN THAT THE LAST
TIME...AND IN SOME CASES THE ONLY TIME... THIS DATE SAW BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WAS MARCH 14TH 1993 WHEN MOST OF THE DAILY
RECORDS WERE SET ACROSS THE AREA THAT DAY. 24/RR
AVIATION...
MOST TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VFR CEILINGS BUT THEY ARE
RIGHT AT 3000 FEET. A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS
SHOULD BRING LOWER CLOUDS BACK TO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH SHOWERS. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MVFR DECKS
AND -RA. NOT THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SO JUST GOING
WITH SHRA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO INCREASE FROM KHUM TO MSY/NEW AND ASD
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES FROM
DEEPENING SFC LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT BUT LOW CLOUDS LIKELY STILL STICKING AROUND.
MARINE...
MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE NOW THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA HAS TIGHTENED AND CAUSED WINDS TO
INCREASE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN HALF HAS CAUSED EVEN MORE ENHANCEMENT OF
WINDS. IT SEEMS TO MAKE MORE SENSE TO ISSUE A LONG TERM SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HANDLE THE 20-25 KNOT WINDS RATHER THAN A 3 HR
LONG SCA SINCE THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED WINDS WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 15 TO
20 KNOT RANGE MOST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS THE LOW
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GULF. THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY FADE FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LEND TO A WEAK WIND FIELD AND LITTLE SEA/WAVE ACTION.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 53 39 60 43 / 80 20 10 10
BTR 56 39 60 43 / 70 10 10 10
ASD 64 42 58 44 / 60 30 10 10
MSY 61 45 57 47 / 40 20 10 10
GPT 62 44 58 47 / 70 40 10 10
PQL 61 41 60 42 / 70 50 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
334 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...
A 1012MB SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WAS ACCOMPANIED
BY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 200 MILES SE OF MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER LARGE DIVERGENCE STRUCTURE ALOFT.
MEANWHILE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LOUISIANA MOVING EASTWARD WITH
YET ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE BASE OF TROUGH
OVER NE TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE LOCAL AREA WAS CURRENTLY IN A
RELATIVE DRY SLOT BETWEEN SYSTEMS THAT SHOULD FILL DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS UNDER INCREASING DYNAMICS AND OMEGA BY 18Z. GFS
TIME-HEIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SHARP INFLUENCES FROM COLD
POOL TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT BUT STILL MAINTAIN A
PRECIPITATION LOADED WARMER PSEUDO PROFILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO
PROVIDE SHOWERS INTERSPERSED WITHIN STRATIFORM RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND WRF 3KM LOCAL SCALE MODELS AGREE ON ONSET
OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AROUND 18Z AS COLD POOL PASSES
OVERHEAD FROM WEST-TO-EAST. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE HOURLY
POPS WITH GENERALLY 20 PERCENT LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING
INCREMENTING UPWARDS TO 70 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN
WALKING DOWN AGAIN THIS EVENING. DESPITE DYNAMIC COOLING
ALOFT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR A SLOW OR STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND TODAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPS. AFTER THIS FEATURE WORKS OUT OF
THE AREA TODAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
FEATURE A WARMING TREND UNDER ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
.LONG TERM...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH SHORT WAVELENGTH NATURE OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GREATER DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE WHETHER TO
SYNC THE FLOW OR MAINTAIN DISCONTINUOUS SPACING OF THE INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES BOTH IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES. THE ECMWF
INDICATES A LARGE ANOMALY LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH
FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OVER WESTERN MEXICO VIA A REX BLOCK
PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT THEN PROGRESSES EAST WHILE
MAINTAINING CONNECTIVITY WITH NORTHERN BRANCH CYCLONE...WITH YET
THE NEXT KICKER ON ITS HEALS IN THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THE
SURFACE REFLECTION LOW REMAINS RATHER WEAKLY INDICATED PER ECMWF.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS SHOWS A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERN BRANCH CYCLONE
ALOFT THAT INDUCES A 1006MB BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH
CONNECTION TO THE LAGGING NORTHERN SYSTEM OVER TEXAS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALL THAT SAID...THE BULK OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT CONSIDERATIONS OVER
LAND AREAS FOR TUESDAY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF ANY GULF LOW THAT DOES
FORM AND INTEGRITY OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...WHICH SHOULD BE
PRETTY ROBUST BY EITHER MODEL`S SCENARIO. THE ECMWF MAY BE
SLIGHTLY MORE PROBLEMATIC FOR LAND AREAS GIVEN COLD POOL PASSAGE
THAT MAY DESTABILIZE COLUMN FOR SOME SMALL HAIL CONSIDERATIONS. AT
THIS TIME...LEANING TOWARDS GFS BUT STILL RESERVING SOME CAUTIOUS
CONFIDENCE ON ANY EXPECTED OUTCOMES. NEXT BIG DIFFERENCE COMES ON
ENSUING SYSTEM. BOTH SHOW CONSIDERABLE COOLING FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BUT THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER FREEZE OR AT LEAST
KILLING FROST SITUATION FROM THE 14TH. GIVEN THE TENDENCIES OF
THIS COLD WINTER...WOULD NOT THINK TOO FAR-FETCHED DESPITE THE
LATENESS OF SUCH COLD AIR. IT WOULD BE RARE IN THAT THE LAST
TIME...AND IN SOME CASES THE ONLY TIME... THIS DATE SAW BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WAS MARCH 14TH 1993 WHEN MOST OF THE DAILY
RECORDS WERE SET ACROSS THE AREA THAT DAY. 24/RR
&&
.AVIATION...
MOST TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VFR CEILINGS BUT THEY ARE
RIGHT AT 3000 FEET. A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS
SHOULD BRING LOWER CLOUDS BACK TO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH SHOWERS. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MVFR DECKS
AND -RA. NOT THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SO JUST GOING
WITH SHRA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO INCREASE FROM KHUM TO MSY/NEW AND ASD
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES FROM
DEEPENING SFC LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT BUT LOW CLOUDS LIKELY STILL STICKING AROUND.
&&
.MARINE...
MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE NOW THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA HAS TIGHTENED AND CAUSED WINDS TO
INCREASE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN HALF HAS CAUSED EVEN MORE ENHANCEMENT OF
WINDS. IT SEEMS TO MAKE MORE SENSE TO ISSUE A LONG TERM SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HANDLE THE 20-25 KNOT WINDS RATHER THAN A 3 HR
LONG SCA SINCE THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED WINDS WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 15 TO
20 KNOT RANGE MOST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS THE LOW
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GULF. THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY FADE FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LEND TO A WEAK WIND FIELD AND LITTLE SEA/WAVE ACTION.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 53 39 60 43 / 70 20 10 10
BTR 56 39 60 43 / 70 10 10 10
ASD 64 42 58 44 / 70 30 10 10
MSY 61 45 57 47 / 70 20 10 10
GPT 62 44 58 47 / 70 40 10 10
PQL 61 41 60 42 / 70 50 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
24/RR
MEFFER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
910 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. A QUIET PATTERN
WILL PERSIST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
NOT MUCH PCPN FALLING ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER AN AREA OF HEAVIER
PCPN WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MOVING EAST. THIS PCPN IS
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR ALPENA TO
MADISON. 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. FEEL WE/LL SEE DYNAMICAL COOLING AS THE PCPN MOVES
EAST. GIVEN SFC TEMPS STILL NEAR 40 ACROSS THE CWA...WE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AND HAVE GONE WITH A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH SOME
WEAK WAVE ENERGY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AFTER SUNSET THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
COULD BE RAIN OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY TO CHANGE EVERYTHING TO SNOW. HRRR AND
GFS SEEM TO BE A PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING AND WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR SOME FREEZING PRECIP WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST.
NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS TONIGHT OR AMOUNT
OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. SNOWY SURFACES COULD SEE A QUICK
GLAZE OF ICE...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS TONIGHT.
SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH WHERE IT DOES SNOW BUT
AGAIN...EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS VERY LITTLE IMPACTS FROM THIS
PRECIPITATION.
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE STALLING OUT OF ANY PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
INDIANA BORDER UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST LATE IN THE DAY. ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP SATURDAY THAT WILL BE IN FORM OF SNOW AND
AGAIN...LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IF ANY OCCURS AT ALL. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK REACHING THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MINS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES. TRANQUIL
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO BRING A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PCPN BY LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
LOTS OF GULF MOISTURE TO DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. A CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST PCPN WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH TO SE OF OUR FCST AREA.
12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE IS STILL FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE LOW AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED PCPN SHIELD AND SUGGESTS THE NORTHERMOST PERIPHERY OF
THE PCPN MAY CLIP SOUTHERN MI WITH SOME SNOW WEDNESDAY. IT
SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL STAY SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TO MID ATLANTIC REGIONS.
THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z GLOBAL GEM DO NOT SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL PHASE UNTIL LATE WEEK WITH THE SFC LOW
REALLY NOT STRENGTHENING UNTIL IT REACHES THE EASTERN CONUS AS
THAT OCCURS. 12Z GFS GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS THAT SYSTEM WELL SOUTH
OF OUR REGION.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AT
LEAST FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TRANQUIL WX IS EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
MVFR CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MUCH OF IT FALLING AS LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG I94. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF IT AT THE ONSET
COULD BE FREEZING RAIN OR ICE PELLETS...BUT FEEL MOST OF IT WILL
FALL AS SOME LIGHT SNOW. VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTED TOO
MUCH AS ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT. UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING SOME
FOG AND HAZE. NOT EXPECTING THAT TO GET TOO OUT OF HAND HERE...BUT
WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR IT.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SATURDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER AT THE I94 TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON
WHETHER THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL CLEAR OUT ON SATURDAY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. PLAYED IT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTICALLY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THESE CEILINGS LINGERING LONGER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL SNOW MELT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE FREEZING HIGH TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING WILL HELP TO SLOWLY ERODE SOME OF THE SNOW PACK AND
ICE COVER IN LOWER MICHIGAN. NO REAL RAINMAKERS OR HEAT WAVES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO LEADING TO PRETTY STABLE RIVER
CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
702 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. A QUIET PATTERN
WILL PERSIST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH SOME
WEAK WAVE ENERGY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AFTER SUNSET THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
COULD BE RAIN OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY TO CHANGE EVERYTHING TO SNOW. HRRR AND
GFS SEEM TO BE A PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING AND WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR SOME FREEZING PRECIP WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST.
NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS TONIGHT OR AMOUNT
OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. SNOWY SURFACES COULD SEE A QUICK
GLAZE OF ICE...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS TONIGHT.
SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH WHERE IT DOES SNOW BUT
AGAIN...EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS VERY LITTLE IMPACTS FROM THIS
PRECIPITATION.
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE STALLING OUT OF ANY PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
INDIANA BORDER UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST LATE IN THE DAY. ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP SATURDAY THAT WILL BE IN FORM OF SNOW AND
AGAIN...LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IF ANY OCCURS AT ALL. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK REACHING THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MINS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES. TRANQUIL
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO BRING A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PCPN BY LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
LOTS OF GULF MOISTURE TO DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. A CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST PCPN WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH TO SE OF OUR FCST AREA.
12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE IS STILL FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE LOW AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED PCPN SHIELD AND SUGGESTS THE NORTHERMOST PERIPHERY OF
THE PCPN MAY CLIP SOUTHERN MI WITH SOME SNOW WEDNESDAY. IT
SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL STAY SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TO MID ATLANTIC REGIONS.
THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z GLOBAL GEM DO NOT SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL PHASE UNTIL LATE WEEK WITH THE SFC LOW
REALLY NOT STRENGTHENING UNTIL IT REACHES THE EASTERN CONUS AS
THAT OCCURS. 12Z GFS GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS THAT SYSTEM WELL SOUTH
OF OUR REGION.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AT
LEAST FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TRANQUIL WX IS EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
MVFR CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 04Z AND 12Z ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MUCH OF IT FALLING AS LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG I94. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF IT AT THE ONSET
COULD BE FREEZING RAIN OR ICE PELLETS...BUT FEEL MOST OF IT WILL
FALL AS SOME LIGHT SNOW. VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTED TOO
MUCH AS ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT. UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING SOME
FOG AND HAZE. NOT EXPECTING THAT TO GET TOO OUT OF HAND HERE...BUT
WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR IT.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SATURDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER AT THE I94 TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON
WHETHER THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL CLEAR OUT ON SATURDAY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. PLAYED IT A BIT MORE OPTIMISTICALLY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THESE CEILINGS LINGERING LONGER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL SNOW MELT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE FREEZING HIGH TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING WILL HELP TO SLOWLY ERODE SOME OF THE SNOW PACK AND
ICE COVER IN LOWER MICHIGAN. NO REAL RAINMAKERS OR HEAT WAVES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO LEADING TO PRETTY STABLE RIVER
CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1201 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING. WAVE THAT BROUGHT A SMALL
AMOUNT OF PRECIP TO THE BORDERLANDS OVERNIGHT AS DEPICTED ON
SATELLITE AND REGIONAL AND CANADIAN RADARS SHOW IT HAS MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. WE ARE LEFT WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FLURRIES/FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM WHERE
IT IS NOW IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SO...HAVE REDUCED POPS AND
REDUCED MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP
COVERAGE AND TYPE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WE FOLLOWED A BLEND...BUT
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF THAN THE GFS. RADAR SHOWED ECHOES
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KINL/KCDD AT TIMES. MORE RETURNS WERE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RETURNS
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA REVEAL SOME
FREEZING RAIN/MIXED PRECIP. WE CONFINED MENTION OF PRECIP TO OUR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA ZONES FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RES MODELS. A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A
HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE SNOW/FREEZING
PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY. STRATUS CLOUDS WERE
SURGING NORTH THIS MORNING AND THE RAP SHOWS THEY SHOULD COVER
MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY AND
WE HAVE HIGHS FROM THE MID TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH AS WELL. WE HAVE A MENTION OF
PRECIP FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE HAVING HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE FAR NORTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...AND
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL FAR SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE ISSUES
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE COOLER
ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT MORE OF A MIX. AT THIS TIME...WE CONTINUED A
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE
BORDERLAND SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW. COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO
NOT WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
AND CONSIDER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DIP TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
TWENTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE
COLD FRONT/LOW MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF...WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT. ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
MID TWENTIES TOWARD INTERNATIONAL FALLS...AND THE MID THIRTIES OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A VERY ACTIVE NRN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST CHALLENGING FOR SEVERAL REASONS. CONFIDENCE WILL BE HIGHEST
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS INITIAL MID LVL TROF MOVES EAST. A
RELATIVELY QUIET AND COLD SATURDAY IS EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MDLS AGREE THAT AT MID LVLS A SLIGHTLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL RESIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
SRN ALBERTA WITH A BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT FROM ALBERTA INTO THE LOWER
GT LAKES. ITS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE MDLS SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL
SFC LOWS WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE SE. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
SPEED OF THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIBBONS MAKES
THE FCST TEMPS/PTYPES/POPS LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT ENOUGH
WARM AIR IS PULLED INTO THE CWA UNDER THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
THAT ZL AND PERHAPS EVEN RAIN MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER SRN CWA
WHERE BDRY LYR WARMING HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. THIS MAY OCCUR AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY BUT WILL LEAVE SNOW IN FCST FOR NOW. EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY MONDAY AS MAX TEMPS IN SRN CWA MAY BE CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER IF LATEST EC/GEM ARE CORRECT. WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIP
FOCUSED OVER THE NRN TIER OF MN ZONES CLOSER TO POTENTIAL
CONVERGENCE/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW. MDLS AGREE
THAT TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO COLDER AIR WITH MAX TEMPS
LOWERING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM MONDAYS VALUES. GFS/EC AGREE
THAT A MID LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS MIDWEEK. HOWEVER
THE RESULTING DOWNSTREAM TROFS ARE NOT IN SYNC WHICH PROMOTES AN
INCREASING DIFFERENCE IN PLACEMENT OF LOW LVL THERMAL TROUGH. GFS IS
MUCH COLDER THAN EC AT THIS POINT..ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS TREND TEMPS
DOWNWARD TO CLIMO OR BELOW CLIMO AFTER THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF
EARLY WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
THE NORTHLAND IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS OF MIDDAY..WITH PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTH HAVING MOVED EAST OF KINL/KHIB. NEXT APPROACHING
WAVE IS RESULTING IN PRESSURE FALLS AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT..WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30KT AT TIMES INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. VSBY REDUCTION AT KBRD IS LIKELY DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN SOME FORM THRU THIS
AFTERNOON.
APPROACHING WAVE AND CONTINUED SUSTAINED ASCENT SHOULD EVENTUALLY
RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS THIS EVENING..WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY KINL AND
KHIB. FARTHER SOUTH..LIGHT FZDZ/SN IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGT/FRI
MORNING UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NW
BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS..LATEST AT
KHYR..ALONG WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR
RANGE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 23 31 4 / 20 50 20 10
INL 30 19 25 -5 / 60 80 20 10
BRD 33 25 29 -1 / 10 20 10 0
HYR 34 23 35 6 / 10 40 30 10
ASX 33 23 35 9 / 10 50 30 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1110 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING. WAVE THAT BROUGHT A SMALL
AMOUNT OF PRECIP TO THE BORDERLANDS OVERNIGHT AS DEPICTED ON
SATELLITE AND REGIONAL AND CANADIAN RADARS SHOW IT HAS MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. WE ARE LEFT WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FLURRIES/FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM WHERE
IT IS NOW IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SO...HAVE REDUCED POPS AND
REDUCED MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP
COVERAGE AND TYPE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WE FOLLOWED A BLEND...BUT
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF THAN THE GFS. RADAR SHOWED ECHOES
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KINL/KCDD AT TIMES. MORE RETURNS WERE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RETURNS
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA REVEAL SOME
FREEZING RAIN/MIXED PRECIP. WE CONFINED MENTION OF PRECIP TO OUR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA ZONES FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RES MODELS. A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A
HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE SNOW/FREEZING
PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY. STRATUS CLOUDS WERE
SURGING NORTH THIS MORNING AND THE RAP SHOWS THEY SHOULD COVER
MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY AND
WE HAVE HIGHS FROM THE MID TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH AS WELL. WE HAVE A MENTION OF
PRECIP FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE HAVING HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE FAR NORTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...AND
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL FAR SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE ISSUES
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE COOLER
ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT MORE OF A MIX. AT THIS TIME...WE CONTINUED A
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE
BORDERLAND SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW. COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO
NOT WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
AND CONSIDER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DIP TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
TWENTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE
COLD FRONT/LOW MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF...WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT. ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
MID TWENTIES TOWARD INTERNATIONAL FALLS...AND THE MID THIRTIES OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A VERY ACTIVE NRN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST CHALLENGING FOR SEVERAL REASONS. CONFIDENCE WILL BE HIGHEST
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS INITIAL MID LVL TROF MOVES EAST. A
RELATIVELY QUIET AND COLD SATURDAY IS EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MDLS AGREE THAT AT MID LVLS A SLIGHTLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL RESIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
SRN ALBERTA WITH A BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT FROM ALBERTA INTO THE LOWER
GT LAKES. ITS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE MDLS SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL
SFC LOWS WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE SE. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
SPEED OF THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIBBONS MAKES
THE FCST TEMPS/PTYPES/POPS LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT ENOUGH
WARM AIR IS PULLED INTO THE CWA UNDER THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
THAT ZL AND PERHAPS EVEN RAIN MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER SRN CWA
WHERE BDRY LYR WARMING HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. THIS MAY OCCUR AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY BUT WILL LEAVE SNOW IN FCST FOR NOW. EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY MONDAY AS MAX TEMPS IN SRN CWA MAY BE CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER IF LATEST EC/GEM ARE CORRECT. WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIP
FOCUSED OVER THE NRN TIER OF MN ZONES CLOSER TO POTENTIAL
CONVERGENCE/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW. MDLS AGREE
THAT TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO COLDER AIR WITH MAX TEMPS
LOWERING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM MONDAYS VALUES. GFS/EC AGREE
THAT A MID LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS MIDWEEK. HOWEVER
THE RESULTING DOWNSTREAM TROFS ARE NOT IN SYNC WHICH PROMOTES AN
INCREASING DIFFERENCE IN PLACEMENT OF LOW LVL THERMAL TROUGH. GFS IS
MUCH COLDER THAN EC AT THIS POINT..ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS TREND TEMPS
DOWNWARD TO CLIMO OR BELOW CLIMO AFTER THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF
EARLY WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CST THUR MAR 6 2014
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR STRATUS IS ADVECTING NORTH INTO CWA. ISOLATED FLURRIES
MAY OCCUR OVER THE SRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE CEILINGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS MAJORITY OF PRECIP IS
CONFINED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. FRONTAL BDRY WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHC OF FZDZ/SN.
SHOULD HAVE IFR AT MOST SITES AS CEILINGS LOWER NEAR FRNTL BDRY
..EXCEPT KHYR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 23 31 4 / 20 50 20 10
INL 30 19 25 -5 / 60 80 20 10
BRD 33 25 29 -1 / 10 20 10 0
HYR 34 23 35 6 / 10 40 30 10
ASX 33 23 35 9 / 10 50 30 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
619 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP
COVERAGE AND TYPE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WE FOLLOWED A BLEND...BUT
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF THAN THE GFS. RADAR SHOWED ECHOES
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KINL/KCDD AT TIMES. MORE RETURNS WERE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RETURNS
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA REVEAL SOME
FREEZING RAIN/MIXED PRECIP. WE CONFINED MENTION OF PRECIP TO OUR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA ZONES FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RES MODELS. A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A
HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE SNOW/FREEZING
PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY. STRATUS CLOUDS WERE
SURGING NORTH THIS MORNING AND THE RAP SHOWS THEY SHOULD COVER
MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY AND
WE HAVE HIGHS FROM THE MID TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH AS WELL. WE HAVE A MENTION OF
PRECIP FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE HAVING HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE FAR NORTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...AND
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL FAR SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE ISSUES
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE COOLER
ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT MORE OF A MIX. AT THIS TIME...WE CONTINUED A
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE
BORDERLAND SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW. COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO
NOT WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
AND CONSIDER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DIP TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
TWENTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE
COLD FRONT/LOW MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF...WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT. ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
MID TWENTIES TOWARD INTERNATIONAL FALLS...AND THE MID THIRTIES OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A VERY ACTIVE NRN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST CHALLENGING FOR SEVERAL REASONS. CONFIDENCE WILL BE HIGHEST
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS INITIAL MID LVL TROF MOVES EAST. A
RELATIVELY QUIET AND COLD SATURDAY IS EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MDLS AGREE THAT AT MID LVLS A SLIGHTLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL RESIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
SRN ALBERTA WITH A BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT FROM ALBERTA INTO THE LOWER
GT LAKES. ITS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE MDLS SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL
SFC LOWS WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE SE. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
SPEED OF THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIBBONS MAKES
THE FCST TEMPS/PTYPES/POPS LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT ENOUGH
WARM AIR IS PULLED INTO THE CWA UNDER THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
THAT ZL AND PERHAPS EVEN RAIN MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER SRN CWA
WHERE BDRY LYR WARMING HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. THIS MAY OCCUR AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY BUT WILL LEAVE SNOW IN FCST FOR NOW. EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY MONDAY AS MAX TEMPS IN SRN CWA MAY BE CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER IF LATEST EC/GEM ARE CORRECT. WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIP
FOCUSED OVER THE NRN TIER OF MN ZONES CLOSER TO POTENTIAL
CONVERGENCE/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW. MDLS AGREE
THAT TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO COLDER AIR WITH MAX TEMPS
LOWERING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM MONDAYS VALUES. GFS/EC AGREE
THAT A MID LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS MIDWEEK. HOWEVER
THE RESULTING DOWNSTREAM TROFS ARE NOT IN SYNC WHICH PROMOTES AN
INCREASING DIFFERENCE IN PLACEMENT OF LOW LVL THERMAL TROUGH. GFS IS
MUCH COLDER THAN EC AT THIS POINT..ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS TREND TEMPS
DOWNWARD TO CLIMO OR BELOW CLIMO AFTER THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF
EARLY WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CST THUR MAR 6 2014
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR STRATUS IS ADVECTING NORTH INTO CWA. ISOLATED FLURRIES
MAY OCCUR OVER THE SRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE CEILINGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS MAJORITY OF PRECIP IS
CONFINED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. FRONTAL BDRY WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHC OF FZDZ/SN.
SHOULD HAVE IFR AT MOST SITES AS CEILINGS LOWER NEAR FRNTL BDRY
..EXCEPT KHYR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 23 31 4 / 20 50 20 10
INL 30 19 25 -5 / 60 80 20 10
BRD 33 25 29 -1 / 10 20 10 0
HYR 34 23 35 6 / 10 40 30 10
ASX 33 23 35 9 / 10 50 30 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
606 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE BLOWING SNOW TODAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE FRESH SNOW COVER EXISTS...CLOUD COVER
TODAY /AND ITS IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS/...AND MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE
TONIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WERE CHANGED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...MAINLY JUST TIMING DIFFERENCES...MAGNITUDES LOOK
CONSISTENT. THE QUESTION IS HOW SEVERE THE BLOWING SNOW WILL BE.
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY RIGHT NOW...AS CONFIDENCE IN
THE SEVERITY OF BLOWING SNOW IS HAMPERED BY THE FACT THAT THIS
WILL BE A SOUTH WARM ADVECTION WIND. IN THE PAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE STRUGGLED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW. SO...ALONG
WITH COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO
COVER THE BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST...AND HWO.
CLEARING TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE
TODAY...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THE LOW STRATUS HANG
AROUND EASTERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. RAP
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT AT THE 0.5KM LEVEL HAS HANDLED THE
CLOUD COVER WELL OVERNIGHT...AND LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION THROUGH
THE MORNING. THIS MEANS LOW STRATUS WILL TEND TO DECELERATE OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY ACROSS THE
METRO AND AREAS EAST. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND ALSO DUE TO THE SSE WIND EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY.
NEWEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS OUR FA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. A FIRST LOOK AT A FEW HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS LACKED NEGATIVE OMEGA WITH MOISTURE...AND DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS SHOWED THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A BETTER CONNECTION IS MADE AFTER MIDNIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. GENERALLY EXPECT VERY
LIGHT FZDZ EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT
THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR US TO GET OUR MELT ON IN THE EXTENDED...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AS WE
STRUGGLE TO EVER PERFECTLY LINE UP FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE WITH
ONLY SHOTS AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP LOOKING TO COME FRIDAY AND AGAIN MON
NIGHT/TUES.
THE FIRST PROBLEM AT HAND IS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE STARTING
OUT FRIDAY MORNING DRAPED SW TO NE ACROSS MN. AGAIN THE PRECIP END
OF THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE OF THE SHAKESPEAREAN NATURE...MUCH ADO
ABOUT NOTHING. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE PLENTY MOIST THANKS TO THE SNOW PACK MOISTURE FEED...BUT
THE PROBLEM RESIDES BETWEEN 2K AND 10KT FEET...WHICH TIME-HEIGHT RH
CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS/NAM SHOW REMAINING FAIRLY DRY. IN
ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ISSUE...WE ARE ALSO SEEING A SPLIT IN THE
FORCING...WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINING UP IN SRN CANADA...WHILE
A WEAKER WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO MO/IA. TO
PILE ON THE NEGATIVES FOR GETTING MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...SAW NO REASON OVERNIGHT TO RAISE POPS ANY HIGHER THAN THE
20S/LOW 30S THAT WERE INHERITED. FOR P-TYPE...ANYTHING THAT DOES
FALL STILL LOOKS TO COME IN MAINLY THE LIQUID VARIETY...AS THE
COLDER TEMPS THAT WOULD MAKE SLEET/SNOW LOOK TO ARRIVE WITH DRIER
AIR AND THEREFORE COINCIDE WITH THE ENDING OF PRECIP AS WELL.
WHAT THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WITH THIS FRONT ARE THE BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND STRONG CAA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ITS WAKE.
HIGHS EVERYWHERE ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE ACHIEVED EARLY ON...WITH
TEMPS SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CAA WILL BE MOVING OVER MN BY SAT MORNING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY START TO THE
DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN FOR THE NW
CWA.
AFTER A COOL SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE STILL HIGH IN WAA KICKING IN IN A
BIG WAY SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE GET ON TO THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH...WITH A VERY MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...LOOKS LIKE WE COULD GET A FAIRLY CLEAN BURST
OF WARM AIR AS WELL...AS THIS WARMER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING ON CHINOOK
WINDS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS AND STRATUS/FOG IN CHECK.
CONTINUED TO NUDGE HIGHS UP ON BOTH DAYS...WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYONE
FORECAST TO GET INTO THE 40S BOTH DAYS. IN FACT...THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGHS AROUND 50 FOR MONDAY...SO AGAIN IF
ANYTHING...WE ARE PROBABLY NOT WARM ENOUGH. WE ALSO NOW HAVE IT DRY
FOR MONDAY...AS ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STILL RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS
AHEAD OF THE GFS FOR A CLIPPER TYPE WAVE SUN NIGHT/MON...BOTH AGREE
ON KEEPING ANY OF ITS PRECIP WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY...GFS/ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE GEM KICK OFF SOME PRECIP
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN OR IA AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET THAT IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS FOR NOW...THOUGH NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN IF WE WILL SEE ANYTHING AT THIS POINT. FOR
P-TYPE...KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW WITH JUST A RAIN...SNOW...OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTION BASED ON FORECAST SFC TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
OVERALL...WENT WITH A PESSIMISTIC FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN TAF
SITES...AND A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST. SLOW
CLEARING OF THE MVFR CEILINGS IS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. RWF WILL BE IN THE BEST SHAPE WITH CEILINGS...AS THEY
SIT ON THE EDGE OF THE MVFR DECK EARLY THIS MORNING. AXN HAS BEEN
STUBBORN TO LOSE THE CEILINGS THIS MORNING...BUT DO EXPECT THIS TO
HAPPEN BY MID MORNING. THE 0.5KM COND PRES DEFICIT OFF THE RAP HAS
HANDLED STRATUS WELL OVERNIGHT...SO PREFERRED ITS THINKING AS
MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM AFD. IT INDICATES ADVECTION OF STRATUS
NORTHWARD FROM IOWA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. BEYOND MID
DAY...THE CEILING FORECAST IS A LOW CONFIDENT ONE DUE TO VERY STRONG
850H WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AIR ABOVE THESE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.
QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS DRY AIR AND STRONG WIND
WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUD COVER...AS CLOUDS COULD
SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...WHICH WILL TURN NORTHWEST NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR THIS PERIOD...AS IT MAY IN FACT STAY DRY AT ALL
SITES. CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP OCCURRING FRIDAY MORNING WAS TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITE.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MVFR DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONCERN
BEING THAT THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
STILL...ENOUGH CONSENSUS WAS PRESENT TO INCLUDE A BKN020 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
AS THERE IS A CHANCE THIS DECK COULD SCATTER OUT AT MSP. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER IN LOWER CEILINGS MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR/IFR. WINDS TURNING NW 10-15 KT.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS...BECOMING W 5 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
312 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP
COVERAGE AND TYPE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WE FOLLOWED A BLEND...BUT
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF THAN THE GFS. RADAR SHOWED ECHOES
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KINL/KCDD AT TIMES. MORE RETURNS WERE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RETURNS
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA REVEAL SOME
FREEZING RAIN/MIXED PRECIP. WE CONFINED MENTION OF PRECIP TO OUR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA ZONES FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RES MODELS. A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A
HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE SNOW/FREEZING
PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY. STRATUS CLOUDS WERE
SURGING NORTH THIS MORNING AND THE RAP SHOWS THEY SHOULD COVER
MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY AND
WE HAVE HIGHS FROM THE MID TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH AS WELL. WE HAVE A MENTION OF
PRECIP FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE HAVING HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE FAR NORTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...AND
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL FAR SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE ISSUES
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE COOLER
ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT MORE OF A MIX. AT THIS TIME...WE CONTINUED A
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE
BORDERLAND SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW. COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO
NOT WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
AND CONSIDER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DIP TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
TWENTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE
COLD FRONT/LOW MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF...WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT. ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
MID TWENTIES TOWARD INTERNATIONAL FALLS...AND THE MID THIRTIES OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A VERY ACTIVE NRN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST CHALLENGING FOR SEVERAL REASONS. CONFIDENCE WILL BE HIGHEST
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS INITIAL MID LVL TROF MOVES EAST. A
RELATIVELY QUIET AND COLD SATURDAY IS EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MDLS AGREE THAT AT MID LVLS A SLIGHTLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL RESIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
SRN ALBERTA WITH A BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT FROM ALBERTA INTO THE LOWER
GT LAKES. ITS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE MDLS SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL
SFC LOWS WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE SE. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
SPEED OF THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIBBONS MAKES
THE FCST TEMPS/PTYPES/POPS LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT ENOUGH
WARM AIR IS PULLED INTO THE CWA UNDER THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
THAT ZL AND PERHAPS EVEN RAIN MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER SRN CWA
WHERE BDRY LYR WARMING HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. THIS MAY OCCUR AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY BUT WILL LEAVE SNOW IN FCST FOR NOW. EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY MONDAY AS MAX TEMPS IN SRN CWA MAY BE CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER IF LATEST EC/GEM ARE CORRECT. WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIP
FOCUSED OVER THE NRN TIER OF MN ZONES CLOSER TO POTENTIAL
CONVERGENCE/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW. MDLS AGREE
THAT TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO COLDER AIR WITH MAX TEMPS
LOWERING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM MONDAYS VALUES. GFS/EC AGREE
THAT A MID LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS MIDWEEK. HOWEVER
THE RESULTING DOWNSTREAM TROFS ARE NOT IN SYNC WHICH PROMOTES AN
INCREASING DIFFERENCE IN PLACEMENT OF LOW LVL THERMAL TROUGH. GFS IS
MUCH COLDER THAN EC AT THIS POINT..ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS TREND TEMPS
DOWNWARD TO CLIMO OR BELOW CLIMO AFTER THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF
EARLY WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 23 31 4 / 20 50 20 10
INL 30 19 25 -5 / 60 80 20 10
BRD 33 25 29 -1 / 10 20 10 0
HYR 34 23 35 6 / 10 40 30 10
ASX 33 23 35 9 / 10 50 30 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
1003 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
WINDS FINALLY COMING DOWN AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE DUE TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
STRONG GUSTS ON THE THE ORDER OF 60 MPH OBSERVED AT TIMBERCREST
RAWS AND 50 MPH AT BURGESS JCT INDICATIVE OF SOME PREFRONTAL
DOWNSLOPE/MTN WAVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE FOOTHILLS FROM NOW TIL
ABOUT MID AFTERNOON. RAP SOUNDING AT SHERIDAN SUGGESTS 45+ KTS
BISECTING THE CREST OF THE BIG HORNS...SO BELIEVE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS MAY TRANSLATE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BIG HORNS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS AND TAFS...AND ADVERTISED
THIS BRIEF WIND THREAT THRU SOCIAL MEDIA.
PACIFIC FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER THE MTNS. TIMING IS A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO HAVE RAISED LOWER ELEVATION POPS TO LIKELY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND THIS
WILL HELP TO OFFSET THE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING IN PLACE.
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR NE WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS TO REACH
OUR CWA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE BIGGEST IMPACT IS LOCAL LOW LAND OR URBAN FLOODING
RESULTING FROM LOWER ELEVATION SNOW MELT AND ICE JAMS. PROBLEMS
NOTED AT LIVINGSTON...MILES CITY AND ALONG PRYOR CREEK.
JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG IN THE
GAP FLOW AREAS THIS MORNING AND AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOWMELT COULD
BRING ADDITION FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS...WINDS HAVE BEEN HITTING ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT IN THE
GAP FLOW AREAS AT BOTH LIVINGSTON AND NYE. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING WAS
CREATING A SUFFICIENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE THE
WINDS. MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS ARE STABLE WITH 700 MB WIND SPEEDS AT
60 KTS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE MORNING AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. WILL KEEP CURRENT
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION...STRONG DISTURBANCE WITH AMPLE PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING THIS MORNING TO OUR NORTH AND ALSO OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE STRONGEST LIFT INTO
YELLOWSTONE PARK BUT THE MOUNTAINS AROUND COOKE CITY SHOULD SEE 10
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING. DID INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE
PLAINS WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING AND
NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
COOLED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL COOLER AS A COLD FRONT
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S FROM BILLINGS
WEST WITH 30S AND 20S EAST.
HYDRO...PARK COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE IS STILL REPORTING MINOR
FLOODING STILL OCCURRING IN LIVINGSTON AND THE PARADISE VALLEY.
RAPID SNOWMELT IS CAUSING LOCAL AREA ROADS TO FLOOD. THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER IN LIVINGSTON IS WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PROBLEMS WITH THE SNOWMELT. WILL KEEP FLOOD
ADVISORY GOING TODAY AS WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER SOMEWHAT
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. READINGS WILL WARM INTO THE
40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MANY
AREAS SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING THE
STRONGEST PORTIONS OF THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF OUR AREA INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN ANY CASE...IT STILL
WARRANTS A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY BUT COOL TO SEASONAL
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR VIS AND CIGS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH FROPA LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH GUST OF 30 TO 40 KNOT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AROUND KSHR. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051 026/041 026/051 033/058 037/052 029/047 026/043
6/W 33/W 10/U 01/N 14/W 22/W 22/W
LVM 052 028/044 025/049 034/057 036/052 026/045 020/044
7/W 43/W 20/N 02/W 24/W 22/W 22/W
HDN 052 024/039 023/050 028/058 034/055 029/049 027/045
6/W 43/W 10/U 00/B 13/W 22/W 22/W
MLS 045 017/029 020/046 030/054 035/051 030/047 028/044
7/W 23/J 10/U 00/B 12/W 12/W 22/W
4BQ 049 022/034 023/048 029/058 035/055 029/048 026/044
4/W 44/J 10/U 00/B 13/W 32/W 22/W
BHK 046 013/025 016/041 028/053 032/048 026/042 024/040
4/W 22/J 10/B 00/B 12/W 21/B 12/W
SHR 056 027/042 023/052 027/061 032/055 027/046 022/045
3/W 43/W 20/U 01/B 12/W 43/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
557 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL CHANCES ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER TODAY. ALSO...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL BANDS...SO THIS WILL BE
NOTED IN THE HWO.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SLID THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING...A BREEZY NORTH WIND HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO A LOW THAT STALLED OUT OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
PANHANDLES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING A TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS WERE
HITTING IN AND OUT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LEANED ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND DID NOT ISSUE A CHEAP LAST MINUTE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT TODAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE CALMING DOWN.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIED TO ELEVATED OMEGA AND
FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB TROUGH
CURRENTLY SLIDING OVER THE REGION. THE SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD BE ORIENTED IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND.
THE BAND WILL SLIDE OVER THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT TODAY WITH ITS
SOLUTION...SO LEANED THE FORECAST AND POPS TOWARDS THIS OUTCOME.
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNRISE. LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL IS FORECAST...BUT AREAS WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS ONGOING
WILL EXPERIENCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 TO 3 MILES FOR A
BRIEF TIME PERIOD. THE SREF HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS EVENT WELL FOR
VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAS PLACED THE WORST
VISIBILITIES ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN
00Z AND 04Z.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
OVERVIEW...OUTSTANDING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL
KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING WITH LOTS OF SUN ALLOWING FOR A GOOD WARM UP...WHICH SHOULD
EASILY MAKE SUNDAY THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON
SUNDAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
PLAINS. THE SFC WIND WILL LIGHTEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
MAKING FOR AN EVEN NICER DAY...LIKELY THE NICEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
JUST A LIGHT BREEZE.
TUESDAY...THE MORNING MAY START OUT MILD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY SINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MAY END UP BEING GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
PASSES THROUGH. WILL CALL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID
50S SOUTH...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES GIVEN
FRONTAL TIMING ISSUES AS WE ARE STILL 4 DAYS OUT. THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT DO APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER SFC LAYER
MAY SEE RAIN INITIALLY AND THEN SNOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TIMING.
WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...BUT NO SEVERE COLD
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. RATHER THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD WITH HIGHS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND NORMAL. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN APPEARS WARM AND DRY. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY UNDERCUT AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...BUT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE OVERWHELMINGLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 06Z.
AN AXIS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL...ABOUT 50 MILES WIDE...HAS DEVELOPED
WEST OF GRI. AS OF 2345Z THIS AXIS OF SNOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR KBVN
TO NEAR KLXN AND IS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 15KTS. BASED ON THESE
DATA...LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AT GRI PRIMARILY BETWEEN 01Z AND
03Z...BUT COULD BEGIN CREEPING IN A TOUCH BEFORE 01Z. A CEILING
NEAR 1000FT AGL AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 3SM IN -SN IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST 01-03Z AS A RESULT. ALTHOUGH THE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY 03Z...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MVFR
CEILING WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 06Z AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED
IN THE TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AT GRI ONCE THE
SNOWFALL AND STRATUS CLEAR THE AREA TO THE EAST. THE SURFACE WIND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 16-20KTS...GUSTING AT
22-28KTS...UNTIL 03Z...WITH A DECREASING SURFACE WIND EXPECTED
BEYOND 03Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
SOUTHWEST ZONES COULD MIX TO AROUND 825 MB...WHICH WOULD PULL THE
DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE SFC ALONG WITH SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS. USED
A MIXED DOWN TOOL TO COME UP WITH DEWPOINTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS MORE REALISTIC THAN THE ALLBLEND DEWPOINTS.
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
110 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FURTHER EAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SSWD INTO
EASTERN TX. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA AND
NRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A SECOND LOW NOTED OFF THE COAST OF OREGON.
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH OVERCAST CONDS EXTENDING FROM
MONTANA EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS STREAMED INTO WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
GARDEN CITY KS...TO CONCORDIA KS...TO NORFOLK NEBRASKA. THIS AREA
OF LOW CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTH
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOLNS...THIS
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. EAST OF
THIS FEATURE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT...WHICH HAS LED TO A
MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. 2 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 23 AT
BROKEN BOW...TO 35 DEGREES AT VALENTINE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
TEMPERATURES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR TODAY...SURFACE TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 10C TO 12C...HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST ARE ON
TRACK. THE ONE THING WHICH MAY BUST THE FORECAST IS THE PRESENCE
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS HIGH CLOUDINESS
CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY
MID MORNING. EVEN WITH THE LIMITED CLOUD COVER...DECENT MIXING
SHOULD TRUMP ANY EFFECTS OF CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
IN MIND...INCREASED HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE AND UTILIZED MIXED H85
TEMPS FOR HIGHS TDY. FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NRN MINNESOTA...FORCING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH A
SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. LIFT WILL BE DECENT
WITH THE FROPA...HOWEVER WITH THE MID LAYERS BEING FAIRLY
DRY...DECIDED TO LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES TONIGHT. BETTER
CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AS A SECOND...STRONGER
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
MILD TONIGHT...THANKS TO ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AND
WINDS. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR SNOW TO THE LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AGAIN...QPF`S WILL BE LIGHT AS
TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PCPN TO REACH THE
SURFACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE
FAR NORTH...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH A
COLDER ARCTIC FRONT TO FOLLOW MIDDAY. SOUNDINGS ARE DRY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WITH TOP DOWN SATURATION NEEDED FOR PRECIP TO HIT THE
GROUND. TEMPS IN THE MORNING FOR THE MOST PART NEAR OR ABOVE THE
FREEZING...AND TEMPS JUST OFF THE SFC SHOULD BE ABOVE ZERO...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO START
OUT AS RAIN...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW FOR THE
AFTERNOON...FROM N TO S. AS FOR HIGHS...LOOKING LIKE EARLY DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...MAYBE EARLY MORNING HIGHS NEAR THE
NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER. AS FOR PRECIP TOTALS...WITH THE TOP DOWN
SATURATION...AM CONCERNED MODELS MAYBE OVER DOWN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VARIES AS BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE ABLE
TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH PRECIP REACHING THE
GROUND...HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT...THE LOWER
LEVELS DRY QUICKLY. RADAR RETURNS ARE LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE
LIGHTER RETURNS MAY NOT BE REACHING THE GROUND. OVERALL COULD SEE
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS...AND SNOWFALL
TOTALS OF LESS THAN AN INCH.
SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A COOL MARCH
DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS TO
THE SE WITH RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY. 850
MB TEMPS SURGE BACK TO 10C TO 15C. GFS EVEN WARMS SW NEB TO NEAR
17C AT 850 MB. GUIDANCE INTO THE 60S AND A FEW TAP 70...AND SEE NO
REASON TO GO AGAINST THIS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS IS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH MOST AREAS LESS THAN A 5 DEGREE SPREAD FOR HIGHS.
MORE UNCERTAIN DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY. NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS ACROSS NW
NEB TO THE LOWER 60S...WHILE ANOTHER MID TO UPPER 60S /AND
POSSIBLY 70/ AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WARM TEMPS WILL
PROMOTE P TYPE AS RAIN AS LOWS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS NRN ZONES COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH AFTER 2 DAYS IN THE 60S...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IMPACT FROM ANY OF THE SNOW. COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...WHEN A SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS IS EXPECTED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. GENERALLY EXPECTING A
RAIN SNOW MIX WITHIN THE BAND...BUT A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW IS POSSIBLE. VFR SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING IN AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
754 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 751 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY A FEW COUNTIES. JYR AND HYS ARE
M1/4SM...WITH RSL 1/2SM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
BELOIT AND HEBRON ARE DOWN TO 1/4SM IN DENSE FOG. AN ADVISORY WILL
BE POSTED SHORTLY. UNSURE HOW FAR NW TO EXTEND IT. SO MONITOR
SHORT-TERM TRENDS AS WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT AS THE MORNING WEARS
ON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
...BREEZY AND VERY WARM TODAY AND WHILE WE WILL COOL DOWN FRI-SAT
WE ARE STILL IN FOR MORE SPECTACULAR SPRING WARMTH SUN-MON...
ALOFT: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE N AMERICA WITH
A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ADVANCE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS TROF WILL BEGIN TO DIG SE
TONIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES DEEPER INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
MEANWHILE...A MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING THRU THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES IS OVER THE NE STATES AND QUEBEC...AND
ENCOMPASSED THE ENTIRE ERN USA. THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION WAS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. A FRESH POLAR FRONT WAS ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER. A WEAK LOW WILL HEAD E TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK FRI. IN ITS WAKE...THE FRONT WILL DROP S THRU
THE PLAINS. IT WILL MOVE INTO S-CNTRL NEB AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BISECTING THE FCST AREA FROM ROUGHLY BEAVER CITY-
FULLERTON NEB AT DAWN FRI.
STRATUS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF HAS BEEN
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT E-SE-S OF THE FCST AREA...AND GRADUALLY
CREEPING N. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON IT AND WE USED IT TO
GUIDE THE FCST.
THRU SUNRISE: PATCHY CIRROSTRATUS WILL MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL
SUNRISE AWAY FROM LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM
OVER N-CNTRL KS. VISIBILITIES ARE 4-5 MI AT 0830Z. IT ALL DEPENDS
ON WINDS WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE S AND IF STRATUS MOVES IN.
TODAY: OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY UNDER PATCHES OF 25K FT
CIRROSTRATUS. BREEZY S WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH N OF NEB HWY
6. WINDS WERE NUDGED UPWARD 5 MPH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. A LEE-
SIDE TROF WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN...STRENGTHENING THE PRES
GRADIENT.
WE MAY HAVE A STRATUS PROBLEM S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES THRU
MIDDAY. MIXING AND THE THIN NATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ITS GRADUAL
EROSION. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON ITS ULTIMATE EXTENT AND HOW
LONG IT LINGERS.
HIGH TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT. WAS
PLANNING ON RAISING TEMPS ANOTHER 2-3F E OF HWY 281...BUT
REFRAINED BECAUSE STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST.
TONIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FRZG. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY
SUNSET... BUT SHOULD STILL BE GUSTY THRU THE EVENING HOURS.
DO WE HAVE A FOG PROBLEM TOWARD DAWN FRI? NOT SURE BUT THIS NEEDS
FURTHER EVALUATION BY THE DAY SHIFT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
TODAY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FRONTAL TROF
MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-4 DEGS N OF NEB HWY 6. THE CONSENSUS OF
MODEL 2M TEMPS /CONSRAW/ RULES IN THESE SITUATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
WE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM FRIDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
BISECTING OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALTHOUGH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING ON FRIDAY...IT WILL NOT REALLY
GET GOING STRONGER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THIS PUTS US IN A QUANDARY
FOR DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH
PAINTING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION OVER US FOR THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE NAM IS MORE HOPEFUL FOR
PRECIPITATION . ALSO THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
QUICK SHOT AT SOME SNOW...BUT JUDGING BY THE MODEST STRENGTH OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THIS BEING DURING
THE DAY AND BATTLING WARMED SURFACES...I AM LEANING MORE TOWARD RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...AND TRANSITIONING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. EVEN IF WE DO GET SOME SNOW...MUCH OF THIS
WILL MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY WIND UP
BEING A TAD ON THE EARLY SIDE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST...BUT
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP ENOUGH AND IN TIME TO GIVE US MUCH SNOW AT
ALL. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE...AND HENCE...HOW MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...IS STILL UP FOR GRABS TO
SOME EXTENT. I RAISED WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY ABOUT 5 TO 7 KTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WIND GUST
TOOL...FOLLOWING CLOSER TO CONSRAW WIND GUSTS.
AFTER A COOL DAY FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THE COOLER
AIR...A WARM-UP WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE LOCAL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BY MONDAY...ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S...IF NOT 70S...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH.
THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A WAVE APPROACHES AND DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS HARDLY
WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE ECMWF PAINTS
A STOUT QPF FIELD OVER OUR AREA...AND THE GFS SHUNTS MOST
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND TO SOME EXTENT...TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SPLIT WITH THIS NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTION. SO LEAVING CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE...CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
THRU 15Z: AT 11Z THE VSBY DROPPED TO 6SM AND EXPECT IT TO DEGRADE
TO MVFR. HSI/AUH/JYR ARE ALREADY THERE. SATELLITE CONTS TO SHOW
LIFR STRATUS PROGRESSING N. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON IF THE
STRATUS MAKES IT TO GRI. IT IS POSSIBLE.
AFTER 15Z: IT DEPENDS ON THE STRATUS. ANY RESTRICTIVE CIGS/VSBYS
SHOULD DECAY 15Z-17Z. THEN VFR WITH BREEZY S WINDS GUSTING TO 35
MPH. CONFIDENCE: HIGH AFTER 17Z.
TONIGHT: VFR THRU 10Z WITH LLWS DEVELOPING AS DAYTIME GUSTINESS
SUBSIDES. THERE COULD STILL BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST BEFORE 06Z. MVFR
VSBYS COULD DEVELOP IN LIGHT FOG LATE. COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND
WINDSHIFT EXPECTED AROUND 11Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ064-076-
077-086-087.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007-
017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADO
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
552 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
BELOIT AND HEBRON ARE DOWN TO 1/4SM IN DENSE FOG. AN ADVISORY WILL
BE POSTED SHORTLY. UNSURE HOW FAR NW TO EXTEND IT. SO MONITOR
SHORT-TERM TRENDS AS WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT AS THE MORNING WEARS
ON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
...BREEZY AND VERY WARM TODAY AND WHILE WE WILL COOL DOWN FRI-SAT
WE ARE STILL IN FOR MORE SPECTACULAR SPRING WARMTH SUN-MON...
ALOFT: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE N AMERICA WITH
A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ADVANCE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS TROF WILL BEGIN TO DIG SE
TONIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES DEEPER INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
MEANWHILE...A MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING THRU THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES IS OVER THE NE STATES AND QUEBEC...AND
ENCOMPASSED THE ENTIRE ERN USA. THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION WAS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. A FRESH POLAR FRONT WAS ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER. A WEAK LOW WILL HEAD E TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK FRI. IN ITS WAKE...THE FRONT WILL DROP S THRU
THE PLAINS. IT WILL MOVE INTO S-CNTRL NEB AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BISECTING THE FCST AREA FROM ROUGHLY BEAVER CITY-
FULLERTON NEB AT DAWN FRI.
STRATUS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF HAS BEEN
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT E-SE-S OF THE FCST AREA...AND GRADUALLY
CREEPING N. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON IT AND WE USED IT TO
GUIDE THE FCST.
THRU SUNRISE: PATCHY CIRROSTRATUS WILL MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL
SUNRISE AWAY FROM LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM
OVER N-CNTRL KS. VISIBILITIES ARE 4-5 MI AT 0830Z. IT ALL DEPENDS
ON WINDS WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE S AND IF STRATUS MOVES IN.
TODAY: OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY UNDER PATCHES OF 25K FT
CIRROSTRATUS. BREEZY S WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH N OF NEB HWY
6. WINDS WERE NUDGED UPWARD 5 MPH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. A LEE-
SIDE TROF WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN...STRENGTHENING THE PRES
GRADIENT.
WE MAY HAVE A STRATUS PROBLEM S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES THRU
MIDDAY. MIXING AND THE THIN NATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ITS GRADUAL
EROSION. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON ITS ULTIMATE EXTENT AND HOW
LONG IT LINGERS.
HIGH TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT. WAS
PLANNING ON RAISING TEMPS ANOTHER 2-3F E OF HWY 281...BUT
REFRAINED BECAUSE STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST.
TONIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FRZG. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY
SUNSET... BUT SHOULD STILL BE GUSTY THRU THE EVENING HOURS.
DO WE HAVE A FOG PROBLEM TOWARD DAWN FRI? NOT SURE BUT THIS NEEDS
FURTHER EVALUATION BY THE DAY SHIFT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
TODAY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FRONTAL TROF
MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-4 DEGS N OF NEB HWY 6. THE CONSENSUS OF
MODEL 2M TEMPS /CONSRAW/ RULES IN THESE SITUATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
WE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM FRIDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
BISECTING OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALTHOUGH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING ON FRIDAY...IT WILL NOT REALLY
GET GOING STRONGER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THIS PUTS US IN A QUANDARY
FOR DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH
PAINTING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION OVER US FOR THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE NAM IS MORE HOPEFUL FOR
PRECIPITATION . ALSO THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
QUICK SHOT AT SOME SNOW...BUT JUDGING BY THE MODEST STRENGTH OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THIS BEING DURING
THE DAY AND BATTLING WARMED SURFACES...I AM LEANING MORE TOWARD RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...AND TRANSITIONING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. EVEN IF WE DO GET SOME SNOW...MUCH OF THIS
WILL MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY WIND UP
BEING A TAD ON THE EARLY SIDE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST...BUT
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP ENOUGH AND IN TIME TO GIVE US MUCH SNOW AT
ALL. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE...AND HENCE...HOW MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...IS STILL UP FOR GRABS TO
SOME EXTENT. I RAISED WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY ABOUT 5 TO 7 KTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WIND GUST
TOOL...FOLLOWING CLOSER TO CONSRAW WIND GUSTS.
AFTER A COOL DAY FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THE COOLER
AIR...A WARM-UP WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE LOCAL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BY MONDAY...ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S...IF NOT 70S...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH.
THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A WAVE APPROACHES AND DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS HARDLY
WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE ECMWF PAINTS
A STOUT QPF FIELD OVER OUR AREA...AND THE GFS SHUNTS MOST
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND TO SOME EXTENT...TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SPLIT WITH THIS NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTION. SO LEAVING CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE...CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
THRU 15Z: AT 11Z THE VSBY DROPPED TO 6SM AND EXPECT IT TO DEGRADE
TO MVFR. HSI/AUH/JYR ARE ALREADY THERE. SATELLITE CONTS TO SHOW
LIFR STRATUS PROGRESSING N. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON IF THE
STRATUS MAKES IT TO GRI. IT IS POSSIBLE.
AFTER 15Z: IT DEPENDS ON THE STRATUS. ANY RESTRICTIVE CIGS/VSBYS
SHOULD DECAY 15Z-17Z. THEN VFR WITH BREEZY S WINDS GUSTING TO 35
MPH. CONFIDENCE: HIGH AFTER 17Z.
TONIGHT: VFR THRU 10Z WITH LLWS DEVELOPING AS DAYTIME GUSTINESS
SUBSIDES. THERE COULD STILL BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST BEFORE 06Z. MVFR
VSBYS COULD DEVELOP IN LIGHT FOG LATE. COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND
WINDSHIFT EXPECTED AROUND 11Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
546 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FURTHER EAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SSWD INTO
EASTERN TX. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA AND
NRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A SECOND LOW NOTED OFF THE COAST OF OREGON.
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH OVERCAST CONDS EXTENDING FROM
MONTANA EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS STREAMED INTO WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
GARDEN CITY KS...TO CONCORDIA KS...TO NORFOLK NEBRASKA. THIS AREA
OF LOW CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTH
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOLNS...THIS
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. EAST OF
THIS FEATURE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT...WHICH HAS LED TO A
MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. 2 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 23 AT
BROKEN BOW...TO 35 DEGREES AT VALENTINE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
TEMPERATURES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR TODAY...SURFACE TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 10C TO 12C...HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST ARE ON
TRACK. THE ONE THING WHICH MAY BUST THE FORECAST IS THE PRESENCE
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS HIGH CLOUDINESS
CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY
MID MORNING. EVEN WITH THE LIMITED CLOUD COVER...DECENT MIXING
SHOULD TRUMP ANY EFFECTS OF CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
IN MIND...INCREASED HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE AND UTILIZED MIXED H85
TEMPS FOR HIGHS TDY. FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NRN MINNESOTA...FORCING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH A
SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. LIFT WILL BE DECENT
WITH THE FROPA...HOWEVER WITH THE MID LAYERS BEING FAIRLY
DRY...DECIDED TO LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES TONIGHT. BETTER
CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AS A SECOND...STRONGER
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
MILD TONIGHT...THANKS TO ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AND
WINDS. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR SNOW TO THE LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AGAIN...QPF`S WILL BE LIGHT AS
TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PCPN TO REACH THE
SURFACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE
FAR NORTH...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH A
COLDER ARCTIC FRONT TO FOLLOW MIDDAY. SOUNDINGS ARE DRY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WITH TOP DOWN SATURATION NEEDED FOR PRECIP TO HIT THE
GROUND. TEMPS IN THE MORNING FOR THE MOST PART NEAR OR ABOVE THE
FREEZING...AND TEMPS JUST OFF THE SFC SHOULD BE ABOVE ZERO...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO START
OUT AS RAIN...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW FOR THE
AFTERNOON...FROM N TO S. AS FOR HIGHS...LOOKING LIKE EARLY DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...MAYBE EARLY MORNING HIGHS NEAR THE
NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER. AS FOR PRECIP TOTALS...WITH THE TOP DOWN
SATURATION...AM CONCERNED MODELS MAYBE OVER DOWN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VARIES AS BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE ABLE
TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH PRECIP REACHING THE
GROUND...HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT...THE LOWER
LEVELS DRY QUICKLY. RADAR RETURNS ARE LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE
LIGHTER RETURNS MAY NOT BE REACHING THE GROUND. OVERALL COULD SEE
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS...AND SNOWFALL
TOTALS OF LESS THAN AN INCH.
SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A COOL MARCH
DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS TO
THE SE WITH RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY. 850
MB TEMPS SURGE BACK TO 10C TO 15C. GFS EVEN WARMS SW NEB TO NEAR
17C AT 850 MB. GUIDANCE INTO THE 60S AND A FEW TAP 70...AND SEE NO
REASON TO GO AGAINST THIS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS IS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH MOST AREAS LESS THAN A 5 DEGREE SPREAD FOR HIGHS.
MORE UNCERTAIN DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY. NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS ACROSS NW
NEB TO THE LOWER 60S...WHILE ANOTHER MID TO UPPER 60S /AND
POSSIBLY 70/ AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WARM TEMPS WILL
PROMOTE P TYPE AS RAIN AS LOWS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS NRN ZONES COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH AFTER 2 DAYS IN THE 60S...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IMPACT FROM ANY OF THE SNOW. COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AON 25000 FT AGL WILL BEGIN TO
DROP TO 12000 FT AGL BY 00Z FRIDAY. AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...CIGS WILL
FALL FURTHER TO AROUND 5000 FT AGL. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A
MENTION OF PCPN FROM THE 12Z TAF GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED
COVERAGE. WINDS AT THE KVTN TERMINAL WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
10 TO 20 KTS TODAY...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 KTS AFTER
06Z FRIDAY.
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS AON 25000 FT AGL
WILL LOWER TO 15000 FT AGL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER 08Z FRIDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
501 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
...BREEZY AND VERY WARM TODAY AND WHILE WE WILL COOL DOWN FRI-SAT
WE ARE STILL IN FOR MORE SPECTACULAR SPRING WARMTH SUN-MON...
ALOFT: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE N AMERICA WITH
A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ADVANCE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS TROF WILL BEGIN TO DIG SE
TONIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES DEEPER INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
MEANWHILE...A MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING THRU THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES IS OVER THE NE STATES AND QUEBEC...AND
ENCOMPASSED THE ENTIRE ERN USA. THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION WAS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. A FRESH POLAR FRONT WAS ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER. A WEAK LOW WILL HEAD E TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK FRI. IN ITS WAKE...THE FRONT WILL DROP S THRU
THE PLAINS. IT WILL MOVE INTO S-CNTRL NEB AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BISECTING THE FCST AREA FROM ROUGHLY BEAVER CITY-
FULLERTON NEB AT DAWN FRI.
STRATUS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF HAS BEEN
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT E-SE-S OF THE FCST AREA...AND GRADUALLY
CREEPING N. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON IT AND WE USED IT TO
GUIDE THE FCST.
THRU SUNRISE: PATCHY CIRROSTRATUS WILL MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL
SUNRISE AWAY FROM LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM
OVER N-CNTRL KS. VISIBILITIES ARE 4-5 MI AT 0830Z. IT ALL DEPENDS
ON WINDS WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE S AND IF STRATUS MOVES IN.
TODAY: OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY UNDER PATCHES OF 25K FT
CIRROSTRATUS. BREEZY S WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH N OF NEB HWY
6. WINDS WERE NUDGED UPWARD 5 MPH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. A LEE-
SIDE TROF WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN...STRENGTHENING THE PRES
GRADIENT.
WE MAY HAVE A STRATUS PROBLEM S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES THRU
MIDDAY. MIXING AND THE THIN NATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ITS GRADUAL
EROSION. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON ITS ULTIMATE EXTENT AND HOW
LONG IT LINGERS.
HIGH TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT. WAS
PLANNING ON RAISING TEMPS ANOTHER 2-3F E OF HWY 281...BUT
REFRAINED BECAUSE STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST.
TONIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FRZG. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY
SUNSET... BUT SHOULD STILL BE GUSTY THRU THE EVENING HOURS.
DO WE HAVE A FOG PROBLEM TOWARD DAWN FRI? NOT SURE BUT THIS NEEDS
FURTHER EVALUATION BY THE DAY SHIFT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
TODAY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FRONTAL TROF
MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-4 DEGS N OF NEB HWY 6. THE CONSENSUS OF
MODEL 2M TEMPS /CONSRAW/ RULES IN THESE SITUATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
WE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM FRIDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
BISECTING OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALTHOUGH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING ON FRIDAY...IT WILL NOT REALLY
GET GOING STRONGER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THIS PUTS US IN A QUANDARY
FOR DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH
PAINTING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION OVER US FOR THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE NAM IS MORE HOPEFUL FOR
PRECIPITATION . ALSO THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
QUICK SHOT AT SOME SNOW...BUT JUDGING BY THE MODEST STRENGTH OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THIS BEING DURING
THE DAY AND BATTLING WARMED SURFACES...I AM LEANING MORE TOWARD RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...AND TRANSITIONING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. EVEN IF WE DO GET SOME SNOW...MUCH OF THIS
WILL MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY WIND UP
BEING A TAD ON THE EARLY SIDE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST...BUT
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP ENOUGH AND IN TIME TO GIVE US MUCH SNOW AT
ALL. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE...AND HENCE...HOW MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...IS STILL UP FOR GRABS TO
SOME EXTENT. I RAISED WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY ABOUT 5 TO 7 KTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WIND GUST
TOOL...FOLLOWING CLOSER TO CONSRAW WIND GUSTS.
AFTER A COOL DAY FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THE COOLER
AIR...A WARM-UP WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE LOCAL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BY MONDAY...ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S...IF NOT 70S...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH.
THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A WAVE APPROACHES AND DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS HARDLY
WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE ECMWF PAINTS
A STOUT QPF FIELD OVER OUR AREA...AND THE GFS SHUNTS MOST
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND TO SOME EXTENT...TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SPLIT WITH THIS NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTION. SO LEAVING CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE...CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THRU 12Z: VFR SKC INITIALLY THEN SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS INVADE. S
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS GRADUALLY BECOMING A CIG AROUND 25K
FT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 32 KTS 18Z-22Z.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS DESCENDING TO 20K FT. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN NEAR 06Z. DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDS AND
WHILE THERE COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 23 KTS...EXPECT
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS. LLWS COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT IT HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED YET DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT. THE 18Z/00Z NAM
HAVE IT. IF WE SEE IT IN THE 06Z CYCLE...WE WILL INCLUDE IT WITH
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
402 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FURTHER EAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SSWD INTO
EASTERN TX. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA AND
NRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A SECOND LOW NOTED OFF THE COAST OF OREGON.
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH OVERCAST CONDS EXTENDING FROM
MONTANA EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS STREAMED INTO WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
GARDEN CITY KS...TO CONCORDIA KS...TO NORFOLK NEBRASKA. THIS AREA
OF LOW CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTH
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOLNS...THIS
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. EAST OF
THIS FEATURE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT...WHICH HAS LED TO A
MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. 2 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 23 AT
BROKEN BOW...TO 35 DEGREES AT VALENTINE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
TEMPERATURES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR TODAY...SURFACE TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 10C TO 12C...HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST ARE ON
TRACK. THE ONE THING WHICH MAY BUST THE FORECAST IS THE PRESENCE
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS HIGH CLOUDINESS
CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY
MID MORNING. EVEN WITH THE LIMITED CLOUD COVER...DECENT MIXING
SHOULD TRUMP ANY EFFECTS OF CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
IN MIND...INCREASED HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE AND UTILIZED MIXED H85
TEMPS FOR HIGHS TDY. FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NRN MINNESOTA...FORCING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH A
SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. LIFT WILL BE DECENT
WITH THE FROPA...HOWEVER WITH THE MID LAYERS BEING FAIRLY
DRY...DECIDED TO LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES TONIGHT. BETTER
CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AS A SECOND...STRONGER
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
MILD TONIGHT...THANKS TO ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AND
WINDS. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR SNOW TO THE LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AGAIN...QPF`S WILL BE LIGHT AS
TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PCPN TO REACH THE
SURFACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE
FAR NORTH...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH A
COLDER ARCTIC FRONT TO FOLLOW MIDDAY. SOUNDINGS ARE DRY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WITH TOP DOWN SATURATION NEEDED FOR PRECIP TO HIT THE
GROUND. TEMPS IN THE MORNING FOR THE MOST PART NEAR OR ABOVE THE
FREEZING...AND TEMPS JUST OFF THE SFC SHOULD BE ABOVE ZERO...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO START
OUT AS RAIN...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW FOR THE
AFTERNOON...FROM N TO S. AS FOR HIGHS...LOOKING LIKE EARLY DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...MAYBE EARLY MORNING HIGHS NEAR THE
NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER. AS FOR PRECIP TOTALS...WITH THE TOP DOWN
SATURATION...AM CONCERNED MODELS MAYBE OVER DOWN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VARIES AS BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE ABLE
TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH PRECIP REACHING THE
GROUND...HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT...THE LOWER
LEVELS DRY QUICKLY. RADAR RETURNS ARE LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE
LIGHTER RETURNS MAY NOT BE REACHING THE GROUND. OVERALL COULD SEE
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS...AND SNOWFALL
TOTALS OF LESS THAN AN INCH.
SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A COOL MARCH
DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS TO
THE SE WITH RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY. 850
MB TEMPS SURGE BACK TO 10C TO 15C. GFS EVEN WARMS SW NEB TO NEAR
17C AT 850 MB. GUIDANCE INTO THE 60S AND A FEW TAP 70...AND SEE NO
REASON TO GO AGAINST THIS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS IS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH MOST AREAS LESS THAN A 5 DEGREE SPREAD FOR HIGHS.
MORE UNCERTAIN DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY. NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS ACROSS NW
NEB TO THE LOWER 60S...WHILE ANOTHER MID TO UPPER 60S /AND
POSSIBLY 70/ AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WARM TEMPS WILL
PROMOTE P TYPE AS RAIN AS LOWS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS NRN ZONES COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH AFTER 2 DAYS IN THE 60S...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IMPACT FROM ANY OF THE SNOW. COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FOR KLBF AND KVTN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BECOME BROKEN BY EARLY
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20012G18KT AT KVTN TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
356 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
...BREEZY AND VERY WARM TODAY AND WHILE WE WILL COOL DOWN FRI-SAT
WE ARE STILL IN FOR MORE SPECTACULAR SPRING WARMTH SUN-MON...
ALOFT: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE N AMERICA WITH
A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ADVANCE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS TROF WILL BEGIN TO DIG SE
TONIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES DEEPER INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
MEANWHILE...A MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING THRU THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES IS OVER THE NE STATES AND QUEBEC...AND
ENCOMPASSED THE ENTIRE ERN USA. THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION WAS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. A FRESH POLAR FRONT WAS ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER. A WEAK LOW WILL HEAD E TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK FRI. IN ITS WAKE...THE FRONT WILL DROP S THRU
THE PLAINS. IT WILL MOVE INTO S-CNTRL NEB AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BISECTING THE FCST AREA FROM ROUGHLY BEAVER CITY-
FULLERTON NEB AT DAWN FRI.
STRATUS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF HAS BEEN
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT E-SE-S OF THE FCST AREA...AND GRADUALLY
CREEPING N. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON IT AND WE USED IT TO
GUIDE THE FCST.
THRU SUNRISE: PATCHY CIRROSTRATUS WILL MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL
SUNRISE AWAY FROM LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM
OVER N-CNTRL KS. VISIBILITIES ARE 4-5 MI AT 0830Z. IT ALL DEPENDS
ON WINDS WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE S AND IF STRATUS MOVES IN.
TODAY: OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY UNDER PATCHES OF 25K FT
CIRROSTRATUS. BREEZY S WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH N OF NEB HWY
6. WINDS WERE NUDGED UPWARD 5 MPH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. A LEE-
SIDE TROF WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN...STRENGTHENING THE PRES
GRADIENT.
WE MAY HAVE A STRATUS PROBLEM S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES THRU
MIDDAY. MIXING AND THE THIN NATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ITS GRADUAL
EROSION. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON ITS ULTIMATE EXTENT AND HOW
LONG IT LINGERS.
HIGH TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT. WAS
PLANNING ON RAISING TEMPS ANOTHER 2-3F E OF HWY 281...BUT
REFRAINED BECAUSE STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST.
TONIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FRZG. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY
SUNSET... BUT SHOULD STILL BE GUSTY THRU THE EVENING HOURS.
DO WE HAVE A FOG PROBLEM TOWARD DAWN FRI? NOT SURE BUT THIS NEEDS
FURTHER EVALUATION BY THE DAY SHIFT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
TODAY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FRONTAL TROF
MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-4 DEGS N OF NEB HWY 6. THE CONSENSUS OF
MODEL 2M TEMPS /CONSRAW/ RULES IN THESE SITUATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE BY 5 AM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THRU 12Z: VFR SKC INITIALLY THEN SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS INVADE. S
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS GRADUALLY BECOMING A CIG AROUND 25K
FT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 32 KTS 18Z-22Z.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS DESCENDING TO 20K FT. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN NEAR 06Z. DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDS AND
WHILE THERE COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 23 KTS...EXPECT
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS. LLWS COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT IT HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED YET DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT. THE 18Z/00Z NAM
HAVE IT. IF WE SEE IT IN THE 06Z CYCLE...WE WILL INCLUDE IT WITH
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THE FCST NOW HAS PATCHY FOG FROM HEBRON/GENEVA DOWN INTO N-CNTRL
KS. WHERE DAYTIME STRATUS DISSIPATED...VISIBILITIES ARE DROPPING.
HEBRON AND BELOIT ARE DOWN TO 5 MI. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT...SO WE ARE CONSERVATIVE.
OTHERWISE...A FINE NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 854 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST...CONTINUE TO THINK WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FAIRLY
MINIMAL...SO WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED DOWN LATEST FORECAST LOWS
SEVERAL DEGREES TO COME IN BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH 01Z RAP GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS
FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA...ONLY MAXING
OUT AT AROUND 55KTS NEAR 28000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM
KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED MID
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AS WELL AS
INCREASED MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC ALONG THE MID LEVEL JET AXIS. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY
LACKING. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS
FROM THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL
SUGGEST MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A RESULTANT LACK IN
OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND SUCH CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA WILL
SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA BY 06Z...WITH THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WHEN
COMPARE TO LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S FORECAST
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD THEN
PROMOTE A WARMER DAY ON THURSDAY WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S CURRENTLY FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS LIE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE
START AND END OF THE PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES.
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE CWA SITS UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
GULF COAST AND A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COAST. DURING THE
THURS EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT
THAT WESTERN CONUS DISTURBANCE IS THE FEATURE OF INTEREST...AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...AND TOGETHER WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OVER CENTRAL CANADA...LOOK TO RESULT IN A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES N/NE TOWARD ONTARIO BY 12Z
FRIDAY. THE 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY PRESENT THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CWA...AND OVERALL THERE
HASNT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...NOT BAD AGREEMENT BUT THERE REMAIN DETAILS TO BE WORKED
OUT. ONE OF THE FIRST QUESTIONS THAT ARISES IS WHEN DOES PRECIP
ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA...MOST MODELS ARE TRENDED TOWARD THE
POTENTIAL CREEPING INTO FAR NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA ARND
MIDDAY..WITH THE ECMWF ON THE SLOWER SIDE. DECIDED TO INSERT JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP PRIOR TO 18Z...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT...THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SC NEB...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR KS POST
00Z...THOUGH HOW MUCH WILL LINGER INTO THAT PERIOD REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. DID BUMP UP POPS...MAINLY IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA ALREADY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MODEL TIMING NOT
IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE FRONT IN A SW/NE ORIENTATION
ROUGHLY HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TRUCKING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF
THE CWA NEAR MIDDAY...USHERING IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
REGION. SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS OVER
30 MPH EXPECTED. WITH COLDER AIR ALSO ADVECTING IN FROM THE
NORTH...THINKING THAT HIGHS FOR THE DAY /CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH/ WILL BE MET EARLY ON...PERHAPS
NEAR MIDDAY...WITH STEADY/FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. PRECIPITATION TYPE CERTAINLY ISNT CLEAR CUT AT THIS
POINT...WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED TO START
OFF...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM N TO S...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING IS NOT HIGH. AT THIS POINT THINKING THAT
THE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY SNOW. AS FAR AS
ACCUMULATIONS GO...THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW
/OR LACK OF/ IS OBVIOUSLY GOING TO PLAY A BIG PART...BUT AT THIS
POINT HAVE TOTALS IN THE HALF INCH TO 1 INCH RANGE.
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BETTER FORCING
HAVING SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS STILL
OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...AND
IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO GET THE COLDER AIR OUT...SO HIGHS ON
SATURDAY CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID 30S EAST /CLOSER TO THE SFC
HIGH/ AND MID 40S FURTHER WEST /WHERE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS STARTING
TO WORK IN/.
THEN COMES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...THESE TWO DAYS ARE
THE WARMEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME BROAD
RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BRINGING ALONG A NICE INCREASE
IN TEMPS ALOFT /PERHAPS UP TO 15C AT 850MB/. COMBINED WITH MORE
SUNSHINE...AND THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SW/WRLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING
WITH THE WINDS...HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS IN THE FORECAST.
A READING NEAR 70 NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE
SW...BUT NOT GOING QUITE THAT HIGH YET.
A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS TO SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE
PLAINS. SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH
TIMING/LOCATION...SO DIDNT GO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS BOTH DAYS IS NOT HIGH...IF THE SYSTEM STAYS
CLOSER TO THE LATEST ECMWF RUN...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
LOWERED. PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THRU 12Z: VFR SKC INITIALLY THEN SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS INVADE. S
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS GRADUALLY BECOMING A CIG AROUND 25K
FT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 32 KTS 18Z-22Z.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS DESCENDING TO 20K FT. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN NEAR 06Z. DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDS AND
WHILE THERE COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 23 KTS...EXPECT
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS. LLWS COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT IT HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED YET DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT. THE 18Z/00Z NAM
HAVE IT. IF WE SEE IT IN THE 06Z CYCLE...WE WILL INCLUDE IT WITH
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
709 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
ONLY ISSUE WITH FCST WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOUDS IN WRN ND WHICH ARE
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST. NRN EDGE IN SE SASK INTO MINOT SEEMS
CELLULAR BUT OVERALL RAP MODEL DOES INCREASE SOME CLOUDS INTO WRN
AND SW FCST AREA TONIGHT. SO WILL STICK WITH CURRENT LOW FCST
WHICH IS HIGHER THAN WHAT SOME SHORT RANGE MODELS WILL GIVE.
OTHERWISE HIGH MOVING IN AND GENERALLY CLEAR RRV INTO MN. LOWEST
TEMPS FAR NRN RRV.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES...WITH
THE MAIN CHALLENGES TEMPS AS WE BEGIN TO WARM UP. WILL UTILIZE A
MODEL BLEND AND LEAN ON THE SLIGHTLY WARMER ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE
ONCE WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS ON SUNDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...ONE MORE COLD NIGHT TO GET THROUGH AS A SFC HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. MOST AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...AND
EXPECT THE NORTHERN VALLEY WHERE SOME FRESH SNOW FELL LAST NIGHT
TO FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 BELOW...PERHAPS LOCALLY COLDER.
ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
COULD ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL WARM TODAYS
READINGS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND DRY.
FOR SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WON/T FALL MUCH WITH WAA AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPS COULD ACTUALLY SLOWLY RISE LATE IN THE
NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +5C BY 12Z SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MOST AREAS APPROACHING 40 AT LEAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPS COULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY WITH SOME MID LEVEL COOLING...BUT GIVEN
WESTERLY SFC TRAJECTORY IT WON/T BE MUCH COOLER. THERE WILL BE A
LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE FAR NE CLOSER TO THE
SFC BOUNDARY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AS IT WILL BE
DRY FOR MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS AND MILD.
FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PHASED WAVE TO COME ABOARD OF PAC
NW AS EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS ROLLING WITH GUIDANCE AGREEING IN
SPLITTING FLOW AS IT TRAVERSES ROCKIES. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MORE NW FLOW...BUT WITH SEASONABLY COOL AIR
TO START AROUND MID WEEK. THESE MODELS GO OUT OF PHASE LATER IN
THE WEEK HOWEVER WITH GFS DIGGING SOMETHING SOUTH OF HERE AND
ECMWF WITH A MORE ZONAL SCENARIO. A BLEND OF THESE OFFERS SLIGHT
POPS FOR PART OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND MILDER TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS
HOLDING CLOSE EITHER SIDE OF THE ZERO MARK WILL PORTEND ANOTHER
MIXED BAG TYPE OF EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PD. EXPECT SOME HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT IN THE WEST AND
MOSTLY SATURDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...WJB/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1142 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
CHALLENGES ABOUND THIS MORNING WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND A
HODGEPODGE OF HEADLINES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...
BUT WILL FOLLOW THE RAP FOR DETAILS IN THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS AS
IT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THUS
IMPACTING P-TYPE AT THE SURFACE.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
ND IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS ESTEVAN SASKATCHEWAN AND
PURE RAIN FROM CROSBY TO WILLISTON...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RAP 0 C ISOTHERM AT 850 HPA STRADDLES THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THINK FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE. COULD STILL SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.
FOR THESE REASONS...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND
REPLACED IT WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 18 UTC. WILL
TRIM WESTERN COUNTIES AT 15 UTC. EXPECT SPOTTY ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS...BUT EVEN A THIN GLAZE CAN CREATE SLICK
CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT UNTIL 18
UTC FOR A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN MIX SINCE WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DELAYED AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN
INCH IS POSSIBLE.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION AROUND THE NOON HOUR...ANOTHER
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
SHORT-WAVE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY 850 HPA
THERMAL GRADIENT. P-TYPE WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LANGDON TO
PEMBINA TO BEMIDJI. WILL LIKELY NEED TO COVER THIS SCENARIO WITH
ANOTHER ADVISORY...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THIS MORNING/S MIXED
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END
BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST ND. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...COLDER AIR
WILL BE DELAYED SO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS SEEM
REASONABLE.
1028 TO 1030 HPA SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SOLAR AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
MN AND IA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FROM THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...BUT DIFFER IN MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION WITH
THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT. FOR
EXAMPLE...ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IS WELL EAST OF
THE GFS...AND INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THE PREFERENCE
FROM THE PMDEPD IS TOWARD THE ECMWF...WHICH THE ALLBLEND (CURRENT
MODEL BLEND...BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST) MORE OR LESS
DEPICTS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL MAKE PRECIP
CHANCES DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT CHANCES DO EXIST (JUST NOT SURE
WHERE OR WHEN).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 20 KTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUBSIDE FOR A TIME NEAR THE SFC TROUGH
BEFORE BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS
AGAIN OVER 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT FALLING CEILINGS
NEAR AND BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INTO THE
MVFR/IFR RANGE...WITH SOME REDUCED VSBYS WITH BR/BLOWING OR DRIFTING
SNOW. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY FROM DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. KEPT AS LIGHT
SNOW...BUT SOME MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE INITIALLY. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS KFAR...SO KEPT PRECIP MENTION OUT THERE.
A BIT OF BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER NW WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
952 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...AND WILL KEEP THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE NORTHEAST UNTIL 18Z.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS COULD BE A BIT COOLER TODAY AND WILL LOWER THEM.
IN ADDITION...THE MESO SCALE MODELS KEEP MOST PRECIP AWAY FROM THE
REGION THROUGH 00Z...AND WILL TONE DOWN POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...AND WILL MONITOR THIS TREND AND MAY NEED
TO ADD WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
CHALLENGES ABOUND THIS MORNING WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND A
HODGEPODGE OF HEADLINES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...
BUT WILL FOLLOW THE RAP FOR DETAILS IN THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS AS
IT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THUS
IMPACTING P-TYPE AT THE SURFACE.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
ND IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS ESTEVAN SASKATCHEWAN AND
PURE RAIN FROM CROSBY TO WILLISTON...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RAP 0 C ISOTHERM AT 850 HPA STRADDLES THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THINK FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE. COULD STILL SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.
FOR THESE REASONS...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND
REPLACED IT WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 18 UTC. WILL
TRIM WESTERN COUNTIES AT 15 UTC. EXPECT SPOTTY ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS...BUT EVEN A THIN GLAZE CAN CREATE SLICK
CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT UNTIL 18
UTC FOR A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN MIX SINCE WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DELAYED AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN
INCH IS POSSIBLE.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION AROUND THE NOON HOUR...ANOTHER
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
SHORT-WAVE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY 850 HPA
THERMAL GRADIENT. P-TYPE WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LANGDON TO
PEMBINA TO BEMIDJI. WILL LIKELY NEED TO COVER THIS SCENARIO WITH
ANOTHER ADVISORY...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THIS MORNING/S MIXED
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END
BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST ND. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...COLDER AIR
WILL BE DELAYED SO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS SEEM
REASONABLE.
1028 TO 1030 HPA SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SOLAR AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
MN AND IA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FROM THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...BUT DIFFER IN MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION WITH
THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT. FOR
EXAMPLE...ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IS WELL EAST OF
THE GFS...AND INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THE PREFERENCE
FROM THE PMDEPD IS TOWARD THE ECMWF...WHICH THE ALLBLEND (CURRENT
MODEL BLEND...BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST) MORE OR LESS
DEPICTS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL MAKE PRECIP
CHANCES DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT CHANCES DO EXIST (JUST NOT SURE
WHERE OR WHEN).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS (EXCEPT AT KBJI) WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
DECREASING CEILINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY IMPACTING KDVL/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI.
PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BE A MIX OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...
BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ005-006-009.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
704 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
RADAR ECHOES HAVE MOVED QUICKLY INTO NORTHWEST MN...SO WAS ABLE TO
CANCEL THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
PEMBINA TO GRAFTON TO CROOKSTON. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW SLEET
REPORTS FROM PEMBINA/KITTSON COUNTIES WITH SOME AUTOMATED SITES
ACROSS THE NORTH SHOWING LIGHT SNOW. OUTSIDE OF DEVILS LAKE
EARLIER THIS MORNING...HAVE NOT HEARD OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN.
DESPITE WARM 850 HPA TEMPERATURES...LAPS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
NEAR SURFACE COLD LAYER MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW HYDROMETEORS
TO REFREEZE. FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET...ROADS WILL STILL BECOME
SLICK IN SPOTS CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL SO WILL NOT SPLIT HAIRS
BY CHANGING OVER TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. GIVEN CURRENT SPEED
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL BE ABLE TO DROP REMAINING HEADLINES
BEFORE 18 UTC.
CONSIDERED ISSUING ANOTHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
NEXT BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF THE
RAP/HRRR SHOW DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 00 UTC TONIGHT. ONLY
THE LOCAL WRF IS STILL BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO A BIT MORE
ROBUST SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-EVALUATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
CHALLENGES ABOUND THIS MORNING WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND A
HODGEPODGE OF HEADLINES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...
BUT WILL FOLLOW THE RAP FOR DETAILS IN THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS AS
IT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THUS
IMPACTING P-TYPE AT THE SURFACE.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
ND IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS ESTEVAN SASKATCHEWAN AND
PURE RAIN FROM CROSBY TO WILLISTON...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RAP 0 C ISOTHERM AT 850 HPA STRADDLES THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THINK FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE. COULD STILL SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.
FOR THESE REASONS...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND
REPLACED IT WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 18 UTC. WILL
TRIM WESTERN COUNTIES AT 15 UTC. EXPECT SPOTTY ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS...BUT EVEN A THIN GLAZE CAN CREATE SLICK
CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT UNTIL 18
UTC FOR A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN MIX SINCE WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DELAYED AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN
INCH IS POSSIBLE.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION AROUND THE NOON HOUR...ANOTHER
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
SHORT-WAVE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY 850 HPA
THERMAL GRADIENT. P-TYPE WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LANGDON TO
PEMBINA TO BEMIDJI. WILL LIKELY NEED TO COVER THIS SCENARIO WITH
ANOTHER ADVISORY...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THIS MORNING/S MIXED
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END
BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST ND. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...COLDER AIR
WILL BE DELAYED SO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS SEEM
REASONABLE.
1028 TO 1030 HPA SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SOLAR AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
MN AND IA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FROM THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...BUT DIFFER IN MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION WITH
THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT. FOR
EXAMPLE...ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IS WELL EAST OF
THE GFS...AND INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THE PREFERENCE
FROM THE PMDEPD IS TOWARD THE ECMWF...WHICH THE ALLBLEND (CURRENT
MODEL BLEND...BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST) MORE OR LESS
DEPICTS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL MAKE PRECIP
CHANCES DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT CHANCES DO EXIST (JUST NOT SURE
WHERE OR WHEN).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS (EXCEPT AT KBJI) WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
DECREASING CEILINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY IMPACTING KDVL/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI.
PRECIPITATION MAY INTIALLY BE A MIX OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...
BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ004-007-008-
013>017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ005-006-009.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
CHALLENGES ABOUND THIS MORNING WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND A
HODGEPODGE OF HEADLINES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...
BUT WILL FOLLOW THE RAP FOR DETAILS IN THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS AS
IT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THUS
IMPACTING P-TYPE AT THE SURFACE.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
ND IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS ESTEVAN SASKATCHEWAN AND
PURE RAIN FROM CROSBY TO WILLISTON...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RAP 0 C ISOTHERM AT 850 HPA STRADDLES THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THINK FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE. COULD STILL SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.
FOR THESE REASONS...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND
REPLACED IT WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 18 UTC. WILL
TRIM WESTERN COUNTIES AT 15 UTC. EXPECT SPOTTY ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS...BUT EVEN A THIN GLAZE CAN CREATE SLICK
CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT UNTIL 18
UTC FOR A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN MIX SINCE WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DELAYED AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN
INCH IS POSSIBLE.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION AROUND THE NOON HOUR...ANOTHER
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
SHORT-WAVE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY 850 HPA
THERMAL GRADIENT. P-TYPE WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LANGDON TO
PEMBINA TO BEMIDJI. WILL LIKELY NEED TO COVER THIS SCENARIO WITH
ANOTHER ADVISORY...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THIS MORNING/S MIXED
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END
BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST ND. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...COLDER AIR
WILL BE DELAYED SO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS SEEM
REASONABLE.
1028 TO 1030 HPA SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SOLAR AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
MN AND IA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FROM THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...BUT DIFFER IN MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION WITH
THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT. FOR
EXAMPLE...ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IS WELL EAST OF
THE GFS...AND INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THE PREFERENCE
FROM THE PMDEPD IS TOWARD THE ECMWF...WHICH THE ALLBLEND (CURRENT
MODEL BLEND...BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST) MORE OR LESS
DEPICTS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL MAKE PRECIP
CHANCES DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT CHANCES DO EXIST (JUST NOT SURE
WHERE OR WHEN).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
MVFR CIGS BREAKING UP AS DRIER 850 MB AIR MOVING EASTWARD THRU ERN
ND AND ENTERING THE RRV. AT THE SAME TIME A 45KT 925 MB SOUTHERLY
WIND TRANSPORTING A STRATUS DECK QUICKLY NORTHWARD THRU ERN SD/WRN
MN. 925 MB WINDS TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT...SO QUESTION OF THE TAF IS HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG WILL
THIS IFR OR LOW END MVFR CIG DECK WILL ARRIVE AND LINGER. WENT A
BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC. DID NOT INCLUDE PCPN AT ANY TAF SITE LATER
TONIGHT-THU MORNING DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
TYPE...BUT DOES EXIST POTENTIAL FOR SHORT PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW DVL-GFK-TVF AFTER 09Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST MID AFTN DVL AND LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE IN GFK-TVF
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-
014-015-024-026-028>030.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-
027-054.
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001-004-007-
008-013>017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ005-006-009.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
138 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 5 AM CST THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE BAND OF PRECIPIATION FROM NEAR BOWBELLS THROUGH GARRISON.
BASED UPON MULITPLE OBSERVATIONS OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION REAHCING
THE SURFACE UNDER THE BAND...THE STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WARM
LAYER OFFERED ON THE 00 UTC NAM APPEARS TO VERIFYING BEST. ANOTHER
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
AS OF 0650 UTC...A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS LOCATED FROM CROSBY
AND ESTEVAN...SOUTHEAST TO NEAR HAZEN AND MAX. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIQUID WATER IS REACHING THE GROUND UNDER
THE MAJORITY OF THE BAND...MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW/SLEET NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NEAR TERM POPS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE GRIDS
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS TREND. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ALREADY OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
CONTINUED TO TRIM POPS ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT AS BEST CHANCES
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO CANADIAN BORDER. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE ALSO INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z
THURSDAY AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND HIGHEST NORTH...MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OVER CENTRAL
ND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
ISSUED QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ND AND DELAY TIMING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...BASED
ON RADAR/OBS TRENDS UPSTREAM AS WELL AS SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
(HRRR/RUC/00Z NAM).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. WILL NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS ND BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING
NORTHWEST. 18Z MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE 18Z NAM AND LATEST RUC ARE FARTHER
NORTH WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PRECIP COMPARED TO
GFS/12Z ECMWF. SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS OBSERVED UPSTREAM ACROSS
MONTANA...BUT STILL NOT SEEING MUCH REACH THE GROUND. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO
LOWER POPS OR REMOVE THEM ACROSS CENTRAL ND FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES.
LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND INTO MINNESOTA BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRACKING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
EAST COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PRODUCING WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION AND THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE AREA.
UTILIZED THE GFS FOR THE MAX TEMPERATURE ALOFT. THE GFS HAS BEEN
THE MOST CONSISTENT KEEPING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE ECMWF WAS SIMILAR TO THIS ON THE 04
MARCH 12 UTC RUN...BUT IS NOW QUITE A BIT WARMER AND CLOSER TO THE
NAM. THE MAIN REASON FOR GOING WITH THE GFS IS THAT EVEN THE WARM
NAM DOES NOT HAVE A REAL DEEP LAYER OF +3C TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS
IF THERE WERE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...THE THINKING NOW IS THAT
IT WOULD BE BRIEF...AND THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE SNOW.
NOW AS YOU GO FARTHER SOUTH...SAY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...THE THREAT
OF FREEZING RAIN INCREASES WITH A DEEPER WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE
SOUTH. WE WILL ALSO HAVE THE UNCERTAINTY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF HERE...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT OF SNOW ALSO INCREASES AS YOU GO NORTH. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
2...IN THE WESTERN THIRD...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO DROP OFF.
CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THUS WE
SHOULD HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVENING OR MID SHIFT WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON IF A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NEEDED...AND WHERE IT WOULD GO.
ON THURSDAY...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
AS COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH WILL BE SLOW TO DROP COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE STATE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THE LONG TERM BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
NORTHEAST ON THE TAIL END OF A MID LEVEL S/WV.
OTHERWISE...LINGERING LIGHT SNOW A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH MODELS PORTRAYING LOW STRATUS IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS ON
FRIDAY...WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 20F
DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY. MODELS STILL DEPICT LIGHT QPF ACROSS
MONTANA AND AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PICKING UP ON
WEAK EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ENERGY AND RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE SFC
HIGH.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MATERIALIZES FOR THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY
ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO HIT 40 DEGREES IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION AND THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
RIDGE FLATTENS MONDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH THIS FEATURE ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH THIS TRANSITION...ALONG WITH
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING HIGH IMPACT AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING A SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETTING UP...KEEPING THE BEST STORM
TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KMOT BETWEEN 07-09 UTC
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KISN AND KMOT WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR STRATUS OVERTAKES KDIK/KBIS/KJMS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1256 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
AS OF 0650 UTC...A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS LOCATED FROM CROSBY
AND ESTEVAN...SOUTHEAST TO NEAR HAZEN AND MAX. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIQUID WATER IS REACHING THE GROUND UNDER
THE MAJORITY OF THE BAND...MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW/SLEET NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NEAR TERM POPS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE GRIDS
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS TREND. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ALREADY OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
CONTINUED TO TRIM POPS ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT AS BEST CHANCES
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO CANADIAN BORDER. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE ALSO INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z
THURSDAY AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND HIGHEST NORTH...MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OVER CENTRAL
ND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
ISSUED QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ND AND DELAY TIMING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...BASED
ON RADAR/OBS TRENDS UPSTREAM AS WELL AS SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
(HRRR/RUC/00Z NAM).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. WILL NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS ND BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING
NORTHWEST. 18Z MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE 18Z NAM AND LATEST RUC ARE FARTHER
NORTH WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PRECIP COMPARED TO
GFS/12Z ECMWF. SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS OBSERVED UPSTREAM ACROSS
MONTANA...BUT STILL NOT SEEING MUCH REACH THE GROUND. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO
LOWER POPS OR REMOVE THEM ACROSS CENTRAL ND FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES.
LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND INTO MINNESOTA BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRACKING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
EAST COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PRODUCING WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION AND THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE AREA.
UTILIZED THE GFS FOR THE MAX TEMPERATURE ALOFT. THE GFS HAS BEEN
THE MOST CONSISTENT KEEPING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE ECMWF WAS SIMILAR TO THIS ON THE 04
MARCH 12 UTC RUN...BUT IS NOW QUITE A BIT WARMER AND CLOSER TO THE
NAM. THE MAIN REASON FOR GOING WITH THE GFS IS THAT EVEN THE WARM
NAM DOES NOT HAVE A REAL DEEP LAYER OF +3C TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS
IF THERE WERE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...THE THINKING NOW IS THAT
IT WOULD BE BRIEF...AND THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE SNOW.
NOW AS YOU GO FARTHER SOUTH...SAY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...THE THREAT
OF FREEZING RAIN INCREASES WITH A DEEPER WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE
SOUTH. WE WILL ALSO HAVE THE UNCERTAINTY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF HERE...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT OF SNOW ALSO INCREASES AS YOU GO NORTH. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
2...IN THE WESTERN THIRD...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO DROP OFF.
CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THUS WE
SHOULD HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVENING OR MID SHIFT WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON IF A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NEEDED...AND WHERE IT WOULD GO.
ON THURSDAY...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
AS COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH WILL BE SLOW TO DROP COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE STATE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THE LONG TERM BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
NORTHEAST ON THE TAIL END OF A MID LEVEL S/WV.
OTHERWISE...LINGERING LIGHT SNOW A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH MODELS PORTRAYING LOW STRATUS IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS ON
FRIDAY...WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 20F
DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY. MODELS STILL DEPICT LIGHT QPF ACROSS
MONTANA AND AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PICKING UP ON
WEAK EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ENERGY AND RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE SFC
HIGH.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MATERIALIZES FOR THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY
ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO HIT 40 DEGREES IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION AND THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
RIDGE FLATTENS MONDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH THIS FEATURE ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH THIS TRANSITION...ALONG WITH
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING HIGH IMPACT AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING A SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETTING UP...KEEPING THE BEST STORM
TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KMOT
BETWEEN 07-09 UTC TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KISN AND
KMOT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR STRATUS OVERTAKES
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1019 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
CONTINUED TO TRIM POPS ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT AS BEST CHANCES
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO CANADIAN BORDER. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE ALSO INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z
THURSDAY AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND HIGHEST NORTH...MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OVER CENTRAL
ND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
ISSUED QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ND AND DELAY TIMING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...BASED
ON RADAR/OBS TRENDS UPSTREAM AS WELL AS SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
(HRRR/RUC/00Z NAM).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. WILL NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS ND BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING
NORTHWEST. 18Z MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE 18Z NAM AND LATEST RUC ARE FARTHER
NORTH WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PRECIP COMPARED TO
GFS/12Z ECMWF. SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS OBSERVED UPSTREAM ACROSS
MONTANA...BUT STILL NOT SEEING MUCH REACH THE GROUND. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO
LOWER POPS OR REMOVE THEM ACROSS CENTRAL ND FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES.
LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND INTO MINNESOTA BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRACKING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
EAST COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PRODUCING WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION AND THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE AREA.
UTILIZED THE GFS FOR THE MAX TEMPERATURE ALOFT. THE GFS HAS BEEN
THE MOST CONSISTENT KEEPING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE ECMWF WAS SIMILAR TO THIS ON THE 04
MARCH 12 UTC RUN...BUT IS NOW QUITE A BIT WARMER AND CLOSER TO THE
NAM. THE MAIN REASON FOR GOING WITH THE GFS IS THAT EVEN THE WARM
NAM DOES NOT HAVE A REAL DEEP LAYER OF +3C TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS
IF THERE WERE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...THE THINKING NOW IS THAT
IT WOULD BE BRIEF...AND THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE SNOW.
NOW AS YOU GO FARTHER SOUTH...SAY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...THE THREAT
OF FREEZING RAIN INCREASES WITH A DEEPER WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE
SOUTH. WE WILL ALSO HAVE THE UNCERTAINTY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF HERE...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT OF SNOW ALSO INCREASES AS YOU GO NORTH. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
2...IN THE WESTERN THIRD...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO DROP OFF.
CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THUS WE
SHOULD HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVENING OR MID SHIFT WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON IF A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NEEDED...AND WHERE IT WOULD GO.
ON THURSDAY...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
AS COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH WILL BE SLOW TO DROP COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE STATE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THE LONG TERM BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
NORTHEAST ON THE TAIL END OF A MID LEVEL S/WV.
OTHERWISE...LINGERING LIGHT SNOW A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH MODELS PORTRAYING LOW STRATUS IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS ON
FRIDAY...WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 20F
DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY. MODELS STILL DEPICT LIGHT QPF ACROSS
MONTANA AND AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PICKING UP ON
WEAK EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ENERGY AND RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE SFC
HIGH.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MATERIALIZES FOR THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY
ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO HIT 40 DEGREES IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION AND THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
RIDGE FLATTENS MONDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH THIS FEATURE ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH THIS TRANSITION...ALONG WITH
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING HIGH IMPACT AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING A SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETTING UP...KEEPING THE BEST STORM
TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT ALL SITES AS OF 01Z UTC. NEXT
SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM MONTANA AND EXPECT TO SEE LOWERING CIGS
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH INCLUDING KISN AND KMOT BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE MAY BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
340 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERN STORM MAY GRAZE THE VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA BORDER LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. MILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SYSTEM MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COLD AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT REALLY A LOT OF CHANGE WITH REGARD TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN A
GENERAL SENSE...WITH REGARD TO THE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST INFO FROM 12Z NWP RUNS. STILL APPEARS THAT
THE FORECAST AREA ONLY GETS A GLANCING BRUSH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
FIRST...REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES. THE CONSENSUS HAS BEEN A
LEAN TOWARDS THE OP GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
THE NAM THE OUTLIER AND FURTHEST WEST. EVEN THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST WITH AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE AND
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. LARGE
SCALE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH CAROLINA
AROUND 12Z FRI...AND ONLY BRUSHES OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 280K-290K SFC/S ALL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
OVER CENTRAL VA AND POINTS FURTHER SE. ALSO APPEARS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS MAIN DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOC WITH 850MB AND 700MB
LOWS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. ALL THIS TO SAY...NOT FINDING ANY
REAL DECENT SOURCES OF DYNAMIC AND/OR SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE CWA.
CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM QPF OUTPUT IS IN SUPPORT...KEEPING
MEASURABLE QPF JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA. OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS ALSO
KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY. LATEST HRRR RUNS BRING SOME PRECIP
RIGHT UP TO THE WYOMING/MCDOWELL COUNTY AREAS OF WEST VIRGINIA.
SO...IN THE END...NO REAL DRASTIC CHANGES WITH POPS ALONG OUR SE
BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FRIDAY TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH I DID ALLOW LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE BKW AREA WHICH
IS A BIT OF AN INCREASE FROM PREV SHIFT. INHERITED MINS FROM PREV
SHIFT STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. STILL
EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY SLEET TO BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOR THE WEST VIRGINIA ZONES ROUGHLY
MCDOWELL COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. THE
VIRGINIA COUNTIES MAY REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. EVEN WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIP TONIGHT OR
EARLY TOMORROW...A HEAVY FREEZING MIST IS POSSIBLE ON AFOREMENTIONED
UPSLOPE SFC FLOW WHICH COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN A GLAZE. WILL LEAVE
FREEZING MIST/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WORDING IN HWO BUT HAVE ELECTED TO
NOT HOIST ANY HIGHLIGHTS.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS SEEING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES AT 18Z AND ENDED BY 21Z AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
NORTH WITH DEPARTING SFC LOW OFF TO THE EAST...WHICH SCOURS OUT ANY
REMAINING LLVL MOISTURE. TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S STILL
ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FROM PREV FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE REGION BETWEEN SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH WEAK
WINDS...SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATION NIGHT. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE
OF MOS GUIDANCE LOWS. A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NAM IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE GFS
AND ECMWF. WILL LAG SOME VERY SMALL POPS BEHIND THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NAM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD...WITH RIDGE REBUILDING
OVER THE U.S. AND CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND DEEPENING L/W TROUGH IN THE
E.
THE MAIN FCST ISSUE THIS PERIOD IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH MID STREAM
ENERGY AS S/W TROUGHS IN THE NRN AND MID STREAMS MOVE SEWD IN
CONCERT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT. THE GFS SHOWS A
POSITIVE TILT MID STREAM TROUGH THAT THE NRN STREAM BASICALLY FALLS
INTO...GENERATING A FLAT WAVE AT THE SFC. THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO
ITS LARGE SYSTEM SOLN...AS THE MID STREAM S/W CLOSES
OFF...GENERATING MORE VIGOROUS CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SFC.
THE GFS FLAT WAVE SOLN WOULD ENTAIL A SFC LOW TRACK FASTER AND
FARTHER S AND E...ALLOWING THE COLD AIR TO POUR SWD INTO THE AREA
WED WITH ANAFRONT PRECIPITATION. THE SLOWER...DEEPER AND FARTHER N
AND W TRACK OF THE ECMWFHIRES SFC LOW WOULD PUMP WARM AIR INTO THE
AREA TUE NT INTO WED...BEFORE TRACKING RIGHT OVER THE AREA WED
AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR WOULD THEN POUR SEWD INTO THE AREA WED
WEDNESDAY NT...AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD PULLS OUT.
DRIER...COLDER AIR THEN CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK IN EITHER CASE.
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AND WPC...A LITTLE BIAS CORRECTED
ECMWFHIRES ALSO BLENDED IN. THE FCST FOLLOWS WPC COMPROMISE...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY RAIN INCREASING WED NT AND CONTINUING
THU...FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCE FOR SHOW SHOWERS THU8 NT INTO FRI.
LASTLY...MON AND TUE LOOK DRY AND MILD AHEAD OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING THE BKW TERMINAL.
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH LLVL
MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE LOW
STRATUS TO FORM IN THESE AREAS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXACTLY
HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL BE AT BKW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
WILL INCLUDE LOW MVFR WITH A SCT IFR CIG FOR NOW...AS IFR CIGS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE HERE.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS REACHING INTO DICKENSON COUNTY VIRGINIA ON NE
ALONG THE VA/WV BORDER WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
ALONG EASTERN SLOPES. EVEN WHERE PRECIP IS NOT MEASURED...COLD AIR
WITH NEAR-SATURATED LLVLS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY RESULT IN SOME
FREEZING MIST.
THE BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE BY THE 15Z TIME
FRAME...WITH PERHAPS MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT TO MID-RANGE MVFR CIGS
BTWN 15Z-18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT COULD
VARY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING BKW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
242 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN COAST WITH DEVELOPING STORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. WESTERN FRINGE OF STORM ALONG VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA
BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT REALLY A LOT OF CHANGE WITH REGARD TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN A
GENERAL SENSE...WITH REGARD TO THE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST INFO FROM 12Z NWP RUNS. STILL APPEARS THAT
THE FORECAST AREA ONLY GETS A GLANCING BRUSH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
FIRST...REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES. THE CONSENSUS HAS BEEN A
LEAN TOWARDS THE OP GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
THE NAM THE OUTLIER AND FURTHEST WEST. EVEN THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST WITH AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE AND
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. LARGE
SCALE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH CAROLINA
AROUND 12Z FRI...AND ONLY BRUSHES OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 280K-290K SFC/S ALL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
OVER CENTRAL VA AND POINTS FURTHER SE. ALSO APPEARS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS MAIN DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOC WITH 850MB AND 700MB
LOWS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. ALL THIS TO SAY...NOT FINDING ANY
REAL DECENT SOURCES OF DYNAMIC AND/OR SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE CWA.
CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM QPF OUTPUT IS IN SUPPORT...KEEPING
MEASURABLE QPF JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA. OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS ALSO
KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY. LATEST HRRR RUNS BRING SOME PRECIP
RIGHT UP TO THE WYOMING/MCDOWELL COUNTY AREAS OF WEST VIRGINIA.
SO...IN THE END...NO REAL DRASTIC CHANGES WITH POPS ALONG OUR SE
BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FRIDAY TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH I DID ALLOW LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE BKW AREA WHICH
IS A BIT OF AN INCREASE FROM PREV SHIFT. INHERITED MINS FROM PREV
SHIFT STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. STILL
EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY SLEET TO BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOR THE WEST VIRGINIA ZONES ROUGHLY
MCDOWELL COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. THE
VIRGINIA COUNTIES MAY REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. EVEN WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIP TONIGHT OR
EARLY TOMORROW...A HEAVY FREEZING MIST IS POSSIBLE ON AFOREMENTIONED
UPSLOPE SFC FLOW WHICH COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN A GLAZE. WILL LEAVE
FREEZING MIST/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WORDING IN HWO BUT HAVE ELECTED TO
NOT HOIST ANY HIGHLIGHTS.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS SEEING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES AT 18Z AND ENDED BY 21Z AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
NORTH WITH DEPARTING SFC LOW OFF TO THE EAST...WHICH SCOURS OUT ANY
REMAINING LLVL MOISTURE. TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S STILL
ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FROM PREV FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST STORM APPROACHING CAPE HATTERAS AND THE MOVING OUT TO SEA
FRIDAY...AND HAVE PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS LEADS TO A COOL FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN
INCREASING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM SATURDAY...WITH COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 00Z NAM TRIES TO SHOW A WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN CROSSING CWA...AND EVEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
TRY TO SHOW AN AREA OF HIGHER QPF CROSSING THE NORTHERN CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO DID UP POPS A TOUCH ACROSS THE NORTH. PRECIP LINGERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES. INITIALLY ON SATURDAY PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...WITH A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN...BUT
MOISTURE ALREADY MOVING OUT AT THAT POINT TOO. DID INCLUDE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UNDER AN INCH...IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW REMAINING FRIDAY MORNING...AND CLOUDS
GRADUALLY MOVING OUT THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASED HIGHS IN THE
EASTERN LOWLANDS BY BLENDING IN THE WARMER MAV. HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING SATURDAY...BUT ALSO WARM SE FLOW IN PLACE. MAV/MET FAIRLY
CLOSE SO USED A BIAS-CORRECTED MOS BLEND. COOLER SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED. NRN STREAM DOMINATES
WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT AS L/W TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS
IS A HIGH HEIGHT WNW FLOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NRN
STREAM...SO TEMPERATURES STAY CLOSE TO NORMAL...EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NONETHELESS...THE NRN STREAM IS SHOWN TO BE MORE
DOMINANT COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...THE UPPER FLOW MORE NW THAN
WNW...SHUNTING ANY SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURES TO THE S.
THE GFS SHOWS A DRY...NRN STREAM COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...NOW
MON RATHER THAN TUE...THE OTHER MODELS LACK THIS FEATURE.
BIGGER QUESTION IN THE EXTENDED COMES NEAR THE END...WHEN THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN...WITH STRONG RIDGING IN THE W AND
TROUGHING IN THE E. THE ECMWF SHOWS A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM DAY 7...IT
HAS GONE FROM A SNOWSTORM TO A WARM TO COLD SYSTEM WHICH COULD STILL
CREATE WINTRY ISSUES AT THE END. THE GFS AMPLIFIES A SFC FEATURE
ONLY IN TIME FOR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ON TEMPERATURES...STAYING CLOSE TO WPC
VIA BLENDING IN SOME OF IT...ALONG WITH CONSENSUS DATA. THE DAY 7
FCST IS A COMPROMISE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING THE BKW TERMINAL.
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH LLVL
MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE LOW
STRATUS TO FORM IN THESE AREAS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXACTLY
HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL BE AT BKW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
WILL INCLUDE LOW MVFR WITH A SCT IFR CIG FOR NOW...AS IFR CIGS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE HERE.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS REACHING INTO DICKENSON COUNTY VIRGINIA ON NE
ALONG THE VA/WV BORDER WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
ALONG EASTERN SLOPES. EVEN WHERE PRECIP IS NOT MEASURED...COLD AIR
WITH NEAR-SATURATED LLVLS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY RESULT IN SOME
FREEZING MIST.
THE BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE BY THE 15Z TIME
FRAME...WITH PERHAPS MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT TO MID-RANGE MVFR CIGS
BTWN 15Z-18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT COULD
VARY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING BKW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
913 AM PST THU MAR 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE COMPOSITE SHOWS TWO LINE
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS ORIENTATED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE SECOND
FROM GOLD BEACH THROUGH CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE SECOND LINE
HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES MOSTLY AROUND CAPE BLANCO
AND NORTHERN CURRY COUNTY. THE HRRR 3KM MAX REFLECTIVITY PICKS UP
ON THIS SECOND FEATURE WELL AND IT SHOWS IT MOVING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY AND MOVING INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ESPECIALLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD
AIR ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE SNOW LEVELS ARE COMING DOWN
AND IT`S ACCUMULATING AROUND DIAMOND AND CRATER LAKE AREA. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR TODAY, OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
IS STILL ON TRACK. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN THAT I`M NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO TRIM THEM BACK. WITH THAT SAID, MOST HOURS AND LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE INSTABILITY SHOWERS, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. WE`LL CATCH A BREAK IN THE WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MOST OF SATURDAY BEFORE WET
CONDITIONS RETURN. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH THE
MODELS ON THE SATURDAY SYSTEM AND WE`LL LOOK AT THIS IN MORE
DETAIL. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 06/12Z TAF CYCLE
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 35KT
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST, OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE EAST
SIDE TODAY. WINDS WON`T BE AS STRONG IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE
CASCADES, BUT COULD STILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW AND
A TROUGH SHIFTING THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ALSO
EVEN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS, LOWEST IN SHOWERS. TERRAIN OBSCURATION
WILL BE NEAR TOTAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END
THIS EVENING...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH
LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST LATER TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
ELSEWHERE. SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...GALES WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING,
BUT WILL SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. VERY STEEP, CHAOTIC SEAS WILL
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL THIS AFTERNOON...PEAKING AT 15 TO 20
FEET BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 10 FEET BY
FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT A STRONG FRONT WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SPILDE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM PST THU MAR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...A FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS MOVING INLAND BRINGING A COLD AND SHOWERY REGIME TO THE
AREA TODAY.
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM
THE COAST TO THE CASCADES THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES.
INSTABILITY WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EARLY THIS
MORNING, LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST
FROM CAPE BLANCO TO FLORENCE. MODELS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT THESE AREAS TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ALL INLAND AREAS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
THE COLD AIR MASS MOVING OVERHEAD HAS ALSO ALLOWED SNOW
LEVELS TO LOWER TO AROUND 5500 TO 6000 FEET AND EXPECT SNOW
LEVELS TO LOWER FURTHER DOWN TO 4500 TO 5000 FEET IN SHOWERS
TODAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES BY MID MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW TO LOCATIONS ABOVE 5000 FT. GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES TO BRING REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN IN
THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. DUE TO THE IMPACTS FROM ACCUMULATING
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW, HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES ABOVE 5000 FEET.
BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHOWERS
TODAY. ADVISORY TO WARNING LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN EAST
SIDE LOCATIONS, MAINLY IN THE WARNER MOUNTAINS AND SUMMER LAKE
AREAS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS OUT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OF NOTE IS THAT GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST BELOW HIGH WINDS CRITERIA FOR
THE WARNERS AND SUMMER LAKE AREA. HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE 700 MB 50 KT JET ALOFT, DECIDED TO KEEP
A WARNING FOR HIGH WINDS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SURROUNDING HIGH TERRAIN IN EASTERN KLAMATH, LAKE AND
MODOC COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH GUSTS
OF 45 TO 50 KT TODAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND EXPECT
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER STRONG FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST LATE SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH AND BRING THE FRONT
INTO THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND INLAND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH,
ABOVE 8000 FEET, AND WILL LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO 4500
TO 6000 FT AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000
FEET FOR FOR ORZ027-028.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST
THIS MORNING FOR PZZ356-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1152 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
THE FIRST QUESTION AS FAR AS IMPORTANT WEATHER IS WHETHER OR NOT WE
NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THE BLOWING SNOW IN SOUTHWEST MN BACK TO
BROOKINGS SD...WHERE THE BEST SNOW FELL AND WHERE THE WINDS ARE
STRONGEST. WEBCAMS AND REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATE FEW
VISIBILITY PROBLEMS BEING REPORTED THOUGH SNOW IS BLOWING OVER
ROADS. THE SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NEARING THEIR PEAK BUT
PROBABLY WILL NOT GET THERE UNTIL A BIT AFTER DAYBREAK. BELIEVE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ENOUGH AS WE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE THREATENING WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS. THE WINDS THEMSELVES ARE GENERALLY BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SOME WINDS NUDGING INTO THE BOTTOM OF THAT ZONES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE BUT FEEL THIS IS NOT
CONSISTENT ENOUGH AREA WINDS TO WARRANT A HIGHLIGHT FOR THAT. WINDS
ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG OUTSIDE THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA...AND WINDS
SHOULD SHOW A SLOW DECREASE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER QUESTION RELATES TO CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS NOT REALLY MUCH
OF A PROBLEM ASIDE FROM THE FINE DETAILS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE
EASTERN CWA STRATUS DECK. THIS IS JUST ABOUT WHAT WE EXPECTED A DAY
AGO FOR THIS TIME. A COMBINATION OF HEATING AND DRYING IN THE STRONG
FLOW SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THIS STRATUS FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SHOW
THE DECK WILL ACTUALLY BE ERODING FROM THE TOP...THIS HAS BEEN MOST
APPARENT ON THE RAP RH PROJECTIONS FOR H900/925/950 MB. A THICKER
DECK WOULD BE A LOT MORE STUBBORN BUT THIS ONE SHOULD BREAK UP
STEADILY. SKIES WILL TEND TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH CLOUDS COME AND
GO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY AS WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING THEM
CONSIDERING THE EXISTING SNOW COVER...WITH EVERYBODY EXPECTED TO
BUST THE FREEZING MARK AND GETTING AS WARM AS 50 SOUTHWEST IN
GREGORY COUNTY. COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS WEAK AND WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY
WITH MAINLY A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET POTENTIAL. IF THIS POTENTIAL
DEVELOPS THERE WOULD BE PROBLEMS...BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN
DECENT MODEL SUPPORT TO PUN THE PRECIPITATION DOWN ANY BETTERED AT
THIS TIME. IN THE MILD AIR NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT....LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THUS MOST OF US WILL SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY IN THE 20S AND 30S. PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. 0Z NAM
IS STRONGEST WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND IS ALSO QUICKER
WITH THE PV ANOMALY EXITING THE ROCKIES. THE INTERACTION OF THE TWO
LEADS TO HIGHER QPF SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE 0Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND THE PV ANOMALY...RESULTING IN LESS
INTERACTION AND WEAKER LIFT...THUS ALLOWING THE DRY AIR TO MAINLY
WIN OUT. THE STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS FROM THE NAM IS POSSIBLE...AS IT
USUALLY CATCHES ON TO THAT FIRST WITH ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. A
STRONGER FRONT WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE WE SATURATE AND GET SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVEN FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER FEEL THE SLOWER AND
WEAKER PV ANOMALY FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF IS MORE LIKELY...AS THE NAM
SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER AND CAN REALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS BEYOND 24 HOURS. THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT AND PUSH SOUTH
SOME OF THE HIGHER QPF VALUES SEEN ON THE NAM DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SO WILL GO WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT BUT WEAKER LARGE SCALE
FORCING IDEA...WHICH RESULTS IN POPS PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR TAPERING AS YOU HEAD NORTH. THIS ALSO RESULTS IN A BLENDED
QPF...SLIGHTLY SKEWED TOWARDS THE DRIER SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM. WARM
AIR ALOFT INITIALLY MAY RESULT IN A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
INITIALLY...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN AND WE WET
BULB. AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW THOUGH...MAINLY JUST A LIGHT COATING OF ICE
OR SNOW...MAYBE UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOW ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS THOUGH...AS IF THE NAM
VERIFIED SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE HIGHER IN OUR SOUTH...BUT AGAIN THIS
SEEMS LIKE A LOWER PROBABILITY EVENT AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL BE A COLD ONE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS COMMON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY
RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE COLD
LOW LEVELS WILL HANG ON...RESULTING IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND
30S. HOWEVER THE WARMUP REALLY BEGINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW
SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SUGGESTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THESE
WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IS INTRODUCED INTO THE
FORECAST FROM THE SNOWPACK AND HOW MUCH IT INHIBITS WARMING. GIVEN
THE DEEP SNOW COVER OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA...THINK THEY WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 40S BOTH
DAYS. MORE UNCERTAIN ELSEWHERE...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
SNOWPACK WE LOSE OVER THE COMING DAYS. WITH THE MARCH SUN...MELTING
COULD BE PRETTY EFFICIENT...HOWEVER TODAY AND TOMORROW MAY TEND TO
STAY MAINLY CLOUDY...AND SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER...SO NOT SURE WHERE
WE WILL BE SNOWPACK WISE COME SUNDAY. THUS STAYED ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE FOR NOW ON SUNDAY. DID WARM HIGHS ON MONDAY OVER
ALLBLEND THOUGH...AS MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE SNOW COVER WILL BE LESS
OF A FACTOR OUTSIDE OF OUR EASTERN AREAS. THUS 50S AND LOW 60S
SHOULD BE A GOOD BET ON MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS COULD END UP SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST
DEPENDING ON THE ABOVE SNOW COVER IMPACT THOUGH...SO WILL NEED TO
FINE TUNE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH NOT THAT COLD
OF AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE HIGHS COULD
STAY IN THE 30S AND 40S. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT...BUT COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GIVEN THE WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TYPE
COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
IFR CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO
PERSIST BENEATH STRENGTHENING INVERSION ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND
NEARBY AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PULL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD...WITH AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS AND/OR MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK INTO
AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE LOW
STRATUS COULD BE AREAS -FZDZ AS WARM ADVECTION LIFT INCREASES ABOVE
THE INVERSION...AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THIS IN PRE-FRONTAL AIR
MASS AT KFSD/KSUX DURING 06Z-12Z PERIOD.
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY.
WHILE THE FRONT SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE LOWEST IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-29...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LACK OF MOISTURE BETWEEN LOW STRATUS
AND MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER SHOULD LIMIT POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT.
OCCASIONAL SOUTHERLY SURFACE GUSTS ABOVE 25 KNOTS EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 07/00Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
540 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
THE FIRST QUESTION AS FAR AS IMPORTANT WEATHER IS WHETHER OR NOT WE
NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THE BLOWING SNOW IN SOUTHWEST MN BACK TO
BROOKINGS SD...WHERE THE BEST SNOW FELL AND WHERE THE WINDS ARE
STRONGEST. WEBCAMS AND REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATE FEW
VISIBILITY PROBLEMS BEING REPORTED THOUGH SNOW IS BLOWING OVER
ROADS. THE SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NEARING THEIR PEAK BUT
PROBABLY WILL NOT GET THERE UNTIL A BIT AFTER DAYBREAK. BELIEVE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ENOUGH AS WE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE THREATENING WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS. THE WINDS THEMSELVES ARE GENERALLY BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SOME WINDS NUDGING INTO THE BOTTOM OF THAT ZONES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE BUT FEEL THIS IS NOT
CONSISTENT ENOUGH AREA WINDS TO WARRANT A HIGHLIGHT FOR THAT. WINDS
ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG OUTSIDE THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA...AND WINDS
SHOULD SHOW A SLOW DECREASE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER QUESTION RELATES TO CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS NOT REALLY MUCH
OF A PROBLEM ASIDE FROM THE FINE DETAILS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE
EASTERN CWA STRATUS DECK. THIS IS JUST ABOUT WHAT WE EXPECTED A DAY
AGO FOR THIS TIME. A COMBINATION OF HEATING AND DRYING IN THE STRONG
FLOW SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THIS STRATUS FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SHOW
THE DECK WILL ACTUALLY BE ERODING FROM THE TOP...THIS HAS BEEN MOST
APPARENT ON THE RAP RH PROJECTIONS FOR H900/925/950 MB. A THICKER
DECK WOULD BE A LOT MORE STUBBORN BUT THIS ONE SHOULD BREAK UP
STEADILY. SKIES WILL TEND TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH CLOUDS COME AND
GO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY AS WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING THEM
CONSIDERING THE EXISTING SNOW COVER...WITH EVERYBODY EXPECTED TO
BUST THE FREEZING MARK AND GETTING AS WARM AS 50 SOUTHWEST IN
GREGORY COUNTY. COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS WEAK AND WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY
WITH MAINLY A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET POTENTIAL. IF THIS POTENTIAL
DEVELOPS THERE WOULD BE PROBLEMS...BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN
DECENT MODEL SUPPORT TO PUN THE PRECIPITATION DOWN ANY BETTERED AT
THIS TIME. IN THE MILD AIR NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT....LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THUS MOST OF US WILL SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY IN THE 20S AND 30S. PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. 0Z NAM
IS STRONGEST WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND IS ALSO QUICKER
WITH THE PV ANOMALY EXITING THE ROCKIES. THE INTERACTION OF THE TWO
LEADS TO HIGHER QPF SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE 0Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND THE PV ANOMALY...RESULTING IN LESS
INTERACTION AND WEAKER LIFT...THUS ALLOWING THE DRY AIR TO MAINLY
WIN OUT. THE STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS FROM THE NAM IS POSSIBLE...AS IT
USUALLY CATCHES ON TO THAT FIRST WITH ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. A
STRONGER FRONT WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE WE SATURATE AND GET SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVEN FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER FEEL THE SLOWER AND
WEAKER PV ANOMALY FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF IS MORE LIKELY...AS THE NAM
SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER AND CAN REALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS BEYOND 24 HOURS. THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT AND PUSH SOUTH
SOME OF THE HIGHER QPF VALUES SEEN ON THE NAM DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SO WILL GO WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT BUT WEAKER LARGE SCALE
FORCING IDEA...WHICH RESULTS IN POPS PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR TAPERING AS YOU HEAD NORTH. THIS ALSO RESULTS IN A BLENDED
QPF...SLIGHTLY SKEWED TOWARDS THE DRIER SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM. WARM
AIR ALOFT INITIALLY MAY RESULT IN A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
INITIALLY...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN AND WE WET
BULB. AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW THOUGH...MAINLY JUST A LIGHT COATING OF ICE
OR SNOW...MAYBE UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOW ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS THOUGH...AS IF THE NAM
VERIFIED SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE HIGHER IN OUR SOUTH...BUT AGAIN THIS
SEEMS LIKE A LOWER PROBABILITY EVENT AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL BE A COLD ONE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS COMMON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY
RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE COLD
LOW LEVELS WILL HANG ON...RESULTING IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND
30S. HOWEVER THE WARMUP REALLY BEGINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW
SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SUGGESTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THESE
WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IS INTRODUCED INTO THE
FORECAST FROM THE SNOWPACK AND HOW MUCH IT INHIBITS WARMING. GIVEN
THE DEEP SNOW COVER OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA...THINK THEY WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 40S BOTH
DAYS. MORE UNCERTAIN ELSEWHERE...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
SNOWPACK WE LOSE OVER THE COMING DAYS. WITH THE MARCH SUN...MELTING
COULD BE PRETTY EFFICIENT...HOWEVER TODAY AND TOMORROW MAY TEND TO
STAY MAINLY CLOUDY...AND SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER...SO NOT SURE WHERE
WE WILL BE SNOWPACK WISE COME SUNDAY. THUS STAYED ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE FOR NOW ON SUNDAY. DID WARM HIGHS ON MONDAY OVER
ALLBLEND THOUGH...AS MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE SNOW COVER WILL BE LESS
OF A FACTOR OUTSIDE OF OUR EASTERN AREAS. THUS 50S AND LOW 60S
SHOULD BE A GOOD BET ON MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS COULD END UP SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST
DEPENDING ON THE ABOVE SNOW COVER IMPACT THOUGH...SO WILL NEED TO
FINE TUNE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH NOT THAT COLD
OF AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE HIGHS COULD
STAY IN THE 30S AND 40S. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT...BUT COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GIVEN THE WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TYPE
COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN FOG WITH LOCAL
VISIBILITIES 1-3SM FROM SUX TO JUST EAST OF HON AND EAST WILL
SLOWLY BECOME VFR FROM THE WEST 15Z-07/00Z. VFR WESTERN PART OF
THE AREA. LOCAL SOUTHERLY SURFACE GUSTS ABOVE 25 KNOTS OVER
SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH 20Z. AFTER 07/06Z CEILINGS 2-4K FEET WILL
DEVELOP FROM THE NNW BEHIND CDFNT. A FEW AREAS OF -FZRA ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1020 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...GULF COAST SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF SOUTH OF MOBILE AL AT 14Z.
ANY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM STILL SOUTH OF I-20...SO RAIN
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RUC MODEL DOES MOVE SOME
LIGHT RAIN INTO SW NC VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS DOES LATEST RUN
OF NAM MODEL. THUS...WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR SE TN AND SW NC WITH
REMAINING AREAS DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS MAINLY AFFECTING SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUNSHINE
STILL IN THE MIX ACROSS SW VA AND NE TN. TEMPS ACTUALLY RUNNING AT
OR ABOVE HOURLY GRIDS SO FAR THIS MORNING. WILL ADJUST A FEW TEMPS
AS NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING AND FRESHEN ANY AFFECTED PRODUCTS.
FOR TONIGHT...12Z NAM MODEL STILL WARM OVER OUR FORECAST AREA BUT
DOES ALLOW FOR A POSSIBLE MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN
OVER OUR FAR NE CORNER SUCH AS RUSSELL AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES OF SW
VA. THIS WOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD AND SOUNDINGS MUCH TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT ANY SNOW. WILL WAIT FOR REST OF 12Z MODEL DATA AND STICK
WITH CURRENT GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 54 38 61 39 67 / 30 60 20 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 37 57 36 65 / 10 50 20 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 55 37 58 36 63 / 10 40 10 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 31 53 33 63 / 10 70 30 10 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1049 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT. SOME MVFR CIGS APPEARING IN OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES
THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
THINKING IS THAT MVFR CLOUD DECK UP NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH AND ERODE DURING THE DAY (AS SUPPORTED BY HRRR). A COUPLE
TAF SITES MIGHT GO BROKEN BUT THINK SKIES SHOULD STAY SCATTERED
FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE OF SOME GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALL THANKS TO THE AREA BEING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
REVEALED 850MB WINDS AROUND 20KTS WITH 700MB WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE. MIXING HAS ALREADY STARTED THIS MORNING ALLOWING SOME
OF THESE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN. MODELS ARE ALSO ADVERTISING
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MAKING A COME BACK TOMORROW MORNING BUT KEEPING
TAF SITES VFR. 23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WESTERN EDGES OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR
THE TX/LA BORDER. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY NORTH WINDS THAT WILL LIKELY HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS COME BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND START TO WARM THINGS
UP AS WE HEAD ON INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL WAIT FOR ALL OF THE 12Z MODEL
DATA TO ARRIVE BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENT TO OUR WEEKEND`S RAIN
CHANCES. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
IR/3.9-11 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ERODING AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES TO NEAR THE COAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR/MVFR
CIGS TO IMPROVE OVER THE LAST HOUR. EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS THE NEXT
6-12 HRS. CONCERNED THAT CLOUD COVER OVER N TX MAY PUSH INTO THE
AREA BUT MODELS ARE MIXING ENOUGH THAT DOUBT THERE WILL BE OVC/BKN
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. LIKED HRRR RUNS WHERE THESE CLOUDS DO ERODE
BUT STILL DEVELOP SCT/BKN CLOUDS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
MAY BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS WERE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS EMERGED BEGINNING SUNDAY. OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL SITE MEX AND ECMWF GUIDANCE NUMBERS
DIFFERED BY MORE THAN 10 DEGREES. BECAUSE OF THIS...DECIDED TO
TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODELS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR TODAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO SE TX. EXPECT THE
CLOUD COVER TO SCATTER OUT AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS MAY GET UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO ONE
MORE NIGHT OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.
AM LESS CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND
DUE TO THE MORE DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 WAS DRIER FOR
SATURDAY EVEN WITH THE MODEL PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
THE ECMWF WAS VERY WET WHILE THE GFS WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO. MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS DID NOT SHOW A LOT OF INSTABILITY
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS CONFIRMED BY FORECASTS OF THE LIFTED
INDEX FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE DRIER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF
DIFFERED EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY. DECIDED LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE
PREVIOUS RAIN CHANCE FORECAST AND BLEND IN WITH THE SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER IN TIMING AND LOCATION...BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS PUSH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX AND OFF THE COAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...KEPT SOME RAIN CHANCES TOWARD
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY...AND AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH SE TX TODAY SHOULD
REACH THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT N/NW WINDS TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS. WILL HAVE SCEC AS
DO NOT SEE SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20KTS TO WARRANT SCA. SCEC WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER E TX TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST SOMETIME SUNDAY BUT ALL MODELS SHOW CONFLICTING
TIMING. GFS/ECMWF EVEN HAVING TROUBLE DETERMINING IF A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY (ECMWF) OR TUESDAY (GFS). THIS WILL
LIKELY IMPACT WINDS/SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ECMWF HAS STRONG COLD FRONT ON WED WHERE
GFS HAS FRONT COMING THROUGH NEXT THUR.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 38 67 50 69 / 0 0 10 10 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 39 66 51 71 / 0 0 10 10 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 59 47 61 55 67 / 0 0 10 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1023 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WESTERN EDGES OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR
THE TX/LA BORDER. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY NORTH WINDS THAT WILL LIKELY HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS COME BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND START TO WARM THINGS
UP AS WE HEAD ON INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL WAIT FOR ALL OF THE 12Z MODEL
DATA TO ARRIVE BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENT TO OUR WEEKEND`S RAIN
CHANCES. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
IR/3.9-11 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ERODING AS COLD
FRONT PUSHS TO NEAR THE COAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR/MFVR CIGS
TO IMPROVE OVER THE LAST HOUR. EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS THE NEXT 6-12
HRS. CONCERNED THAT CLOUD COVER OVER N TX MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA
BUT MODELS ARE MIXING ENOUGH THAT DOUBT THERE WILL BE OVC/BKN MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP. LIKED HRRR RUNS WHERE THESE CLOUDS DO ERODE BUT
STILL DEVELOP SCT/BKN CLOUDS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY
BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS WERE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS EMERGED BEGINNING SUNDAY. OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL SITE MEX AND ECMWF GUIDANCE NUMBERS
DIFFERED BY MORE THAN 10 DEGREES. BECAUSE OF THIS...DECIDED TO
TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODELS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR TODAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO SE TX. EXPECT THE
CLOUD COVER TO SCATTER OUT AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS MAY GET UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO ONE
MORE NIGHT OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.
AM LESS CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND
DUE TO THE MORE DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 WAS DRIER FOR
SATURDAY EVEN WITH THE MODEL PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
THE ECMWF WAS VERY WET WHILE THE GFS WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO. MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS DID NOT SHOW A LOT OF INSTABILITY
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS CONFIRMED BY FORECASTS OF THE LIFTED
INDEX FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE DRIER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF
DIFFERED EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY. DECIDED LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE
PREVIOUS RAIN CHANCE FORECAST AND BLEND IN WITH THE SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER IN TIMING AND LOCATION...BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS PUSH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX AND OFF THE COAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...KEPT SOME RAIN CHANCES TOWARD
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY...AND AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH SE TX TODAY SHOULD
REACH THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT N/NW WINDS TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS. WILL HAVE SCEC AS
DO NOT SEE SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20KTS TO WARRANT SCA. SCEC WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER E TX TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST SOMETIME SUNDAY BUT ALL MODELS SHOW CONFLICTING
TIMING. GFS/ECMWF EVEN HAVING TROUBLE DETERMINING IF A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY (ECMWF) OR TUESDAY (GFS). THIS WILL
LIKELY IMPACT WINDS/SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ECMWF HAS STRONG COLD FRONT ON WED WHERE
GFS HAS FRONT COMING THROUGH NEXT THUR.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 38 67 50 69 / 0 0 10 10 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 39 66 51 71 / 0 0 10 10 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 59 47 61 55 67 / 0 0 10 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
601 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
IR/3.9-11 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ERODING AS COLD
FRONT PUSHS TO NEAR THE COAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR/MFVR CIGS
TO IMPROVE OVER THE LAST HOUR. EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS THE NEXT 6-12
HRS. CONCERNED THAT CLOUD COVER OVER N TX MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA
BUT MODELS ARE MIXING ENOUGH THAT DOUBT THERE WILL BE OVC/BKN MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP. LIKED HRRR RUNS WHERE THESE CLOUDS DO ERODE BUT
STILL DEVELOP SCT/BKN CLOUDS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY
BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS WERE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS EMERGED BEGINNING SUNDAY. OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL SITE MEX AND ECMWF GUIDANCE NUMBERS
DIFFERED BY MORE THAN 10 DEGREES. BECAUSE OF THIS...DECIDED TO
TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODELS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR TODAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO SE TX. EXPECT THE
CLOUD COVER TO SCATTER OUT AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS MAY GET UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO ONE
MORE NIGHT OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.
AM LESS CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND
DUE TO THE MORE DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 WAS DRIER FOR
SATURDAY EVEN WITH THE MODEL PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
THE ECMWF WAS VERY WET WHILE THE GFS WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO. MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS DID NOT SHOW A LOT OF INSTABILITY
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS CONFIRMED BY FORECASTS OF THE LIFTED
INDEX FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE DRIER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF
DIFFERED EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY. DECIDED LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE
PREVIOUS RAIN CHANCE FORECAST AND BLEND IN WITH THE SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER IN TIMING AND LOCATION...BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS PUSH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX AND OFF THE COAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...KEPT SOME RAIN CHANCES TOWARD
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY...AND AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT.
40
MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH SE TX TODAY SHOULD
REACH THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT N/NW WINDS TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS. WILL HAVE SCEC AS
DO NOT SEE SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20KTS TO WARRANT SCA. SCEC WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER E TX TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST SOMETIME SUNDAY BUT ALL MODELS SHOW CONFLICTING
TIMING. GFS/ECMWF EVEN HAVING TROUBLE DETERMINING IF A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY (ECMWF) OR TUESDAY (GFS). THIS WILL
LIKELY IMPACT WINDS/SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ECMWF HAS STRONG COLD FRONT ON WED WHERE
GFS HAS FRONT COMING THROUGH NEXT THUR.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 38 67 50 69 / 0 0 10 10 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 39 66 51 71 / 10 0 10 10 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 59 47 61 55 67 / 10 0 10 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1221 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
.UPDATE...WITH CLEARING FROM THE NORTH PUSHING THE SNOW
SOUTH...HAVE ENDED THE ADVISORIES OVER ZONE 39 AND CANCELLED THE
WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONE 33. HAVE ADDED FOG INTO THE
PLAINS FORECAST TONIGHT AS OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW THIS
DEVELOP AS SKIES CLEAR. MAY EXPERIENCE SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE
FOG TOWARDS MORNING....WILL KEEP MONITORING.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CIGS/VSBYS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOST
OF THE SNOW HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA AIRPORTS. CLEARING SKIES
LATE COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ISSUES THROUGH 15Z...WHICH
IS ALREADY ADDRESSED IN THE CURRENT TAF. CEILINGS TO THEN INCREASE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...BECOMING UNLIMITED BY 17Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014/
UPDATE...HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONE 35 AND
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 31..40 AND 45. ALTHOUGH
DRY AIR HAD INTRUDED FM THE NORTH THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE METRO AREA. WL HANG ONTO
THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR ZONES 33..34..36..39 AND 41. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN DENVER (AN INCH OR LESS) BUT EXPECT THE SNOW TO
DIE OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AVIATION...LOW CIGS/VSBYS WL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH 06Z AS LIGHT
SNOW HAS REDEVELOPED OVER DENVER BUT STILL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT (07Z). CLEARING SKIES LATE COULD LEAD TO
POTENTIAL FOG ISSUES WHICH IS ALREADY ADDRESSED IN THE CURRENT
TAF. DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THAT TEMPO GROUP IN THE
UPCOMING TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
SURFACE OBS INDICATING THE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER.
RADAR INDICATING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH THE AREA OF
HEAVIER SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. SNOW CONTINUING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND HAS BEEN HEAVY AT
TIMES EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SOME LOCATIONS GETTING CLOSE
TO A FOOT OF SNOW. LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DECREASING TREND IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN
BAND OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. BUT UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL
EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
CONTINUED ASCENT ALTHOUGH THE MAIN ASCENT TO REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD KEEP SNOW ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT. FOOTHILL
AREAS TO BE HELPED BY UPSLOPE. SOME DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWEST WHICH IMPROVES MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHICS. WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTH PARK GOING FOR TONIGHT. ACROSS PLAINS...EXPECT SNOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. ADVISORY FOR ZONES 39..40 AND 41 STILL SEEMS ON TRACK FOR
TONIGHT. SO FAR...SNOW HAS NOT AFFECTED TRAVEL OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS
LOWER VISIBILITY. BUT AS TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE
SNOW STICK TO THE ROADWAYS WHICH WOULD CREATE A SLOW COMMUTE. SNOW
AMOUNTS MAY END UP LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOW TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ON SATURDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH PARK DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT EXISTING SNOW COVER WILL LIMIT WARMUP.
LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ZONAL ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMUM IS PROGGED OVER COLORADO.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES SOUTH SETTLING ON COLORADO SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE
DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN NEUTRAL FORCING IS PROGGED WELL INTO MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...UPWARD ENERGY MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY...THEN SOME OF THE MODELS BRING IN
UPSLOPE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOW THE FRONT IN
HERE ON TUESDAY. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS PRETTY SPARSE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODELS HAVE INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. ON MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE INCREASES AND
DEEPENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS
A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP POPS OUT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN BRING SOME IN MONDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY`S HIGHS ARE 7-13 C
WARMER THAN SATURDAY`S. MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-3 C WARMER THAN
SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS
HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT ON THE ECMWF...THE GFS IS SLOWER AND KEEPS IT AROUND WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE
DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING. MORE UPPER TROUGHING IS POSSIBLE FOR
FRIDAY BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT GOOD.
AVIATION...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS AREA WITH IFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS. THE LIGHT SNOW
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHEAST
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE EVENING...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY 06Z. THE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 06Z
AND COME TO AND END AROUND 09Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY 10Z ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET
AGL FOR A SHORT TIME. CEILINGS TO THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING...BECOMING UNLIMITED BY 17Z. MFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ036.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RJK
UPDATE/AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1205 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST. ANY
EASTERLY COMPONENT PRODUCES A DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR THIS SIDE OF THE
DIVIDE...WHICH IS COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE FOR SNOW. AND AT THIS
TIME...WEB CAMS AND SURFACE OBS SHOW LITTLE ACTIVITY. WHILE SOME
AREAS OF SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING...LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 818 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS OBSERVATIONS AND CDOT WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW
FALLING ESPECIALLY OVER VAIL PASS. HRRR AND RAP13 CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT PRECIP FOR THE MTNS AND EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BEST MOISTURE AND ENHANCEMENT STAYING FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS SO EXTENSION OF ADVISORIES LOOKS A SAFE BET.
DID DROP WARNING FOR GRAND MESA WITH LITTLE...IF ANY...SNOW
ONGOING THERE. REST OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 549 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHICH IS JUST
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO HAVE ENDED SO WILL ALLOW THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.
SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT IT TO START
DYING OFF AS THE SUN SETS. REMAINING WARNING AND ADVISORIES CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CHUGS ACROSS WESTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AIDED BY CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SNOW
ACROSS THE WRN CO MTNS FROM RABBIT EARS AND VAIL PASSES TO THE SAN
JUAN MTNS. SNOW TO WATER RATIO HAS BEEN CLOSE TO 10:1 FOR VERY WET
SNOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED ACROSS ERN UT
AND NWRN CO. ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL...HAVE ALSO BE NOTED FROM THE UINTA BASIN TO
SOUTHWEST CO.
WHILE THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND CONVECTION DIES
DOWN AFTER SUNSET...NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE FAVORING NORTH FACING SLOPES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL KEEP THE VARIOUS WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT
IN PLACE... EXPIRING AT VARIOUS TIMES THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MTNS AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST SAN JUANS.
NORTHERLY FLOW COULD FAVOR LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW IN THE UNCOMPAHGRE
GORGE SOUTH OF OURAY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE STEAMBOAT VALLEY AND SOME CENTRAL VALLEYS
TONIGHT WHERE LENGTHY PRECIP AND WET GROUND SHOULD HELP MOISTEN THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER AS TEMPS COOL AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.
FINAL DEFORMATION/SHEAR AXIS ALOFT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT STABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING AND MOISTURE DECREASING. WILL ONLY GO WITH JUST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE
SAN JUANS SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO
SUNNIER SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING BUILDS AND EXPANDS EAST INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF CALM AND WARMER WEATHER BEFORE
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM THAT HAS GONE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE
AREA UNTIL TUESDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE LENGTH OF
TIME THIS WEATHER SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT
WHERE THE EC MOVES MOISTURE OUT THE AREA AND RETROGRADES AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPLITTING FROM THE ORIGINAL TROUGH WEST INTO UTAH WITH
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL SOME MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE
PACIFIC ON THURSDAY. WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE RECENT
STORMS HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION...AND THE TROUGHY
LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES...HOWEVER THE LENGTH OF PRECIPITATION
MODELED WITH THE GFS SEEMS TOO STRETCHED OUT IN TIME. THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 953 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NORTH-
FACING SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. BY MIDDAY SAT...ONLY A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WHERE SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS
OCCUR. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS UNTIL
AROUND 14Z...AND BEY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KEGE/KRIL/KMTJ/KSBS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1011 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ACROSS THE PIKES
PEAK REGION HAVE COME TO AN END...SO CANCELLED THE HILITES IN
THESE REGIONS. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR AREAS SW
AND S OF PUEBLO DOWN TO THE NM STATE LINE. /HODANISH
UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WET MTN VALLEY...AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
HUERFANO COUNTY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. THIS
DECISION BASED ON CURRENT REPORTS AND SHORT RANGE SIMULATIONS. /HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
AN UPR TROF WL CONTINUE MOVING ACRS THE STATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SAT...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SOUTHWEST CO THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH PCPN SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WL
CONTINUE SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH ACRS THE AREA. THE MTS AND HYR
ELEVATIONS ALREADY HAVE SNOW...AND AS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COOL THIS
EVENING...ANY RAIN WL CHANGE OVR THE SNOW. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WL GENERALLY FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER AND
NR THE EASTERN MTNS AND AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 OVER THE SERN
PLAINS...WHICH IS WHERE THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MODEL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH...BUT PROBABLY HAS THE GENERAL IDEA OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WL LIKELY OCCUR. WL USE A BLEND OF THE 12Z AND 18Z
NAM...THE GFS AND RAP FOR SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT.
BY LATE SAT MORNING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...BUT SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED OT LINGER OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND MTNS. IN THE MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OVR SRN AREAS. IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MOST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH DECREASED
CLOUDINESS...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVR THE SW MTS AND THE SRN SANGRES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CUTOFF WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT THAT ONLY SILENT POPS WILL BE NEEDED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES REACHING +4C TO +6C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAV AND MEX MAXIMUMS ARE TOO WARM AND
WERE IGNORED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR WITH SNOW COVER OR WET
SOILS. GIVEN THE WARMER MARCH SUN AND THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE...BELIEVE
ADJUSTMENTS WOULD BE MINOR. AS THE STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY...SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT COULD MOVE INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH AS A COUPLE
DEGREES OF WARMING FROM SUNDAY. ONLY HAVE SILENT POPS ON MONDAY
FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE DRY.
.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NEXT STRONG TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION . AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES COLORADO...THERE COULD BE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVER THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. ENSEMBLES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN SPEED...LOCATION AND PRECIPITATION
TOTALS...AND THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.
DECIDED NOT TO ALTER GRIDS FROM CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE MUCH AND
ONLY HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM IN THE AFD. IN CURRENT
PACKAGE...INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED CATEGORY ON THE PLAINS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY. CURRENT MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SYSTEM WOULD BE WEAK.
MOST ENSEMBLES MEMBERS ARE DRY WITH A FEW MEMBERS SUGGESTING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GRIDS FOR FRIDAY HAVE SOME
ISOLATED POPS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHICH MATCHES THE MAIN
IDEA IN THE ENSEMBLES. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AT ALL 3 TAF SITES IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT SHOULD SHOW A DECREASING TREND AS TIME GOES
ON. AFTER SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE WITH VFR AT ALL TAF
SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ072>075-
078>080-087-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ094-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061-063-066-068-076-077-083-086.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
954 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS OBSERVATIONS AND CDOT WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW
FALLING ESPECIALLY OVER VAIL PASS. HRRR AND RAP13 CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT PRECIP FOR THE MTNS AND EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BEST MOISTURE AND ENHANCEMENT STAYING FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS SO EXTENSION OF ADVISORIES LOOKS A SAFE BET.
DID DROP WARNING FOR GRAND MESA WITH LITTLE...IF ANY...SNOW
ONGOING THERE. REST OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 549 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHICH IS JUST
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO HAVE ENDED SO WILL ALLOW THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.
SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT IT TO START
DYING OFF AS THE SUN SETS. REMAINING WARNING AND ADVISORIES CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CHUGS ACROSS WESTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AIDED BY CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SNOW
ACROSS THE WRN CO MTNS FROM RABBIT EARS AND VAIL PASSES TO THE SAN
JUAN MTNS. SNOW TO WATER RATIO HAS BEEN CLOSE TO 10:1 FOR VERY WET
SNOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED ACROSS ERN UT
AND NWRN CO. ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL...HAVE ALSO BE NOTED FROM THE UINTA BASIN TO
SOUTHWEST CO.
WHILE THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND CONVECTION DIES
DOWN AFTER SUNSET...NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE FAVORING NORTH FACING SLOPES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL KEEP THE VARIOUS WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT
IN PLACE... EXPIRING AT VARIOUS TIMES THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MTNS AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST SAN JUANS.
NORTHERLY FLOW COULD FAVOR LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW IN THE UNCOMPAHGRE
GORGE SOUTH OF OURAY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE STEAMBOAT VALLEY AND SOME CENTRAL VALLEYS
TONIGHT WHERE LENGTHY PRECIP AND WET GROUND SHOULD HELP MOISTEN THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER AS TEMPS COOL AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.
FINAL DEFORMATION/SHEAR AXIS ALOFT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT STABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING AND MOISTURE DECREASING. WILL ONLY GO WITH JUST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE
SAN JUANS SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO
SUNNIER SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING BUILDS AND EXPANDS EAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF CALM AND WARMER WEATHER BEFORE WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM THAT HAS GONE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE LENGTH OF TIME THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE THE
EC MOVES MOISTURE OUT THE AREA AND RETROGRADES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPLITTING FROM THE ORIGINAL TROUGH WEST INTO UTAH WITH LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL SOME MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE PACIFIC ON
THURSDAY. WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE RECENT STORMS HAVE
BEEN CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION...AND THE TROUGHY LONGWAVE PATTERN
CONTINUES...HOWEVER THE LENGTH OF PRECIPITATION MODELED WITH THE
GFS SEEMS TOO STRETCHED OUT IN TIME. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 953 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NORTH-
FACING SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. BY MIDDAY SAT...ONLY A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WHERE SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS
OCCUR. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS UNTIL
AROUND 14Z...AND BEY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KEGE/KRIL/KMTJ/KSBS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT ABOVE 9000
FEET FOR COZ010-012-018.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
927 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONE 35 AND
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 31..40 AND 45. ALTHOUGH
DRY AIR HAD INTRUDED FM THE NORTH THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE METRO AREA. WL HANG ONTO
THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR ZONES 33..34..36..39 AND 41. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN DENVER (AN INCH OR LESS) BUT EXPECT THE SNOW TO
DIE OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CIGS/VSBYS WL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH 06Z AS LIGHT
SNOW HAS REDEVELOPED OVER DENVER BUT STILL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT (07Z). CLEARING SKIES LATE COULD LEAD TO
POTENTIAL FOG ISSUES WHICH IS ALREADY ADDRESSED IN THE CURRENT
TAF. DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THAT TEMPO GROUP IN THE
UPCOMING TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
SURFACE OBS INDICATING THE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER.
RADAR INDICATING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH THE AREA OF
HEAVIER SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. SNOW CONTINUING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND HAS BEEN HEAVY AT
TIMES EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SOME LOCATIONS GETTING CLOSE
TO A FOOT OF SNOW. LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DECREASING TREND IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN
BAND OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. BUT UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL
EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
CONTINUED ASCENT ALTHOUGH THE MAIN ASCENT TO REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD KEEP SNOW ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT. FOOTHILL
AREAS TO BE HELPED BY UPSLOPE. SOME DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWEST WHICH IMPROVES MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHICS. WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTH PARK GOING FOR TONIGHT. ACROSS PLAINS...EXPECT SNOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. ADVISORY FOR ZONES 39..40 AND 41 STILL SEEMS ON TRACK FOR
TONIGHT. SO FAR...SNOW HAS NOT AFFECTED TRAVEL OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS
LOWER VISIBILITY. BUT AS TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE
SNOW STICK TO THE ROADWAYS WHICH WOULD CREATE A SLOW COMMUTE. SNOW
AMOUNTS MAY END UP LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOW TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ON SATURDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH PARK DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT EXISTING SNOW COVER WILL LIMIT WARMUP.
LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ZONAL ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMUM IS PROGGED OVER COLORADO.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES SOUTH SETTLING ON COLORADO SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE
DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN NEUTRAL FORCING IS PROGGED WELL INTO MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...UPWARD ENERGY MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY...THEN SOME OF THE MODELS BRING IN
UPSLOPE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOW THE FRONT IN
HERE ON TUESDAY. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS PRETTY SPARSE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODELS HAVE INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. ON MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE INCREASES AND
DEEPENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS
A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP POPS OUT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN BRING SOME IN MONDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY`S HIGHS ARE 7-13 C
WARMER THAN SATURDAY`S. MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-3 C WARMER THAN
SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS
HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT ON THE ECMWF...THE GFS IS SLOWER AND KEEPS IT AROUND WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE
DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING. MORE UPPER TROUGHING IS POSSIBLE FOR
FRIDAY BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT GOOD.
AVIATION...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS AREA WITH IFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS. THE LIGHT SNOW
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHEAST
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE EVENING...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY 06Z. THE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 06Z
AND COME TO AND END AROUND 09Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY 10Z ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET
AGL FOR A SHORT TIME. CEILINGS TO THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING...BECOMING UNLIMITED BY 17Z. MFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ041.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ039.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ036.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ033-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
117 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT RAIN AND LIGHT
WIND SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HRRR
INDICATES VISIBILITY LOWERING TO LESS THAN ONE-HALF OF A MILE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS SHOWED LESS OF A
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. BASED ON CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURE...LIGHT
WIND...AND THE HRRR BELIEVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING A SUNNY
DAY WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
LATELY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH HIGHS NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE
DIFFUSE SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WITH H85 WESTERLY FLOW. THE H5 FLOW APPEARS
CONFLUENT. WE KEPT THE SHOWER CHANCE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AS
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. BELIEVE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW RIDGING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAINTAINING A DRY AIR MASS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A SLUG
OF MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REACHING OUR AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH COOLING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP.
AGS ALREADY EXPERIENCING LIFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG TONIGHT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR.
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 15Z...WITH VFR RETURNING TO ALL TAF
SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION AND UPSTREAM AREAS LEADING TO
RISES ON AREA RIVERS. CONSULT OUR WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON ANY RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1149 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY
FROM OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND
PROVIDING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE NC/CA COAST LATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY
AIR ALOFT SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND DRY AIR ALOFT ALL POINT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. HRRR MODEL INDICATE FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND PIEDMONT...
SPREADING EAST INTO THE MIDLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS ALABAMA SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S STILL LOOK GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...FLATTENING A LITTLE AS WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. COULD BE A FEW MID
TO HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM
BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUN. DRIER AIR AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
STORE FOR THE WEEKEND OVERALL. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE WITH HIGHS AND LOWS AT OR
JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS SIMILAR KEEPING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH
ALTERNATING WEAK RIDGES OR SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. MAIN CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS TROF PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / MIDWEST WITH SC ON
SOUTHERN FRINGE...BETTER DYNAMICS STAY NORTH. MOISTURE STILL A
QUESTION WITH ECMWF A LITTLE WETTER THAN GFS MODEL...ECMX MOS
GUIDANCE NEAR LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY...GFS MOS DRIER. MODELS HINT
AT SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE PULLED INTO TROF AS IT MOVES EAST...COULD
POSSIBLY INCREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER SC. HAVE IT HANDLED WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...SEEMS REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT. OTHER WISE
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK...LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP.
AGS ALREADY EXPERIENCING LIFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG TONIGHT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HRRR MODEL INDICATE
FOG DEVELOPING AT AGS/DNL BY 06Z...AND INTO CAE/CUB AROUND 10Z.
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 15Z...WITH VFR RETURNING TO ALL TAF
SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION AND UPSTREAM AREAS LEADING TO
RISES ON AREA RIVERS. CONSULT OUR WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON ANY RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1135 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
AFTER A MILD DAY TODAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND A BRIEF
COOL DOWN INTO SUNDAY. SPRING-LIKE WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS BRINGS A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 952 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACKS. ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS
IN THE GRIDS MAINLY TO LOWER CLOUD INCREASE A LITTLE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST. NO ZFP OR OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUIET NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL BE PRECEDED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM AND THE RAP TO A LESSER EXTENT HINT AT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
UNDERDOING DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CURRENTLY...AND CONSEQUENTLY
SUSPECT THEY MAY BE OVERDOING POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SIMILAR SETUP TO THIS
MORNING WITH LOCALIZED SHALLOW GROUND FOG. DRIER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
DELAY ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SLOWLY AS IT ORIENTS QUASI-PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW PATTERN. THE
DEPARTURE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
MORNING...WILL WEAKEN THE FRONT FURTHER AS IT COMES UP AGAINST
REMNANT SURFACE RIDGING. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT PRESENT
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...HARD TO JUSTIFY MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE
POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PRECIP BEGINNING AS SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT RAIN...GRADUALLY MIXING WITH THEN CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS CRITICAL THICKNESSES FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. NO SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE EXPANSION OF
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE MILD TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SPRING TEASE FOR
MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. PASSAGE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY SUPPORTS SOME WIND
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MIXING IS MAXIMIZED. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS...SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ENABLE TEMPS
TO RISE CLOSER TO WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. TRENDED WITH WARMER MAVMOS
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION REESTABLISHES BY LATE DAY. WENT A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR MONDAY HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE TEMPS. THINK MANY LOCATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT 60 DEGREES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAVMOS WAS ALSO PREFERRED FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL THERMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON A SYSTEM MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
BRING SOME RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WIDE IN HANDLING...AND AS SUCH
DISCREPANCIES PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DETAIL REGARDING THE
SYSTEM.
WILL ACCEPT MIDDLING CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH LOOKS GOOD TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING COLDER AND GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION BUT THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
ALLBLEND TEMPS WERE REASONABLE AND FEW CHANGES REQUIRED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 080600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES APPEAR WITHIN REACH OVERNIGHT...SO EXPECTING
LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY TEND TO RETARD FOG
DEVELOPMENT. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...BUT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH CLOUD
COVER...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR
NOW.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE TAF SITES FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST...ROUGHLY FROM 081000Z-081600Z. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOP IN THE POST FRONTAL ZONE OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY...BUT IT APPEARS IF
ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP...IT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES.
AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE POST FRONTAL
ZONE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING BY
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO 340-360
DEGREES BEHIND COLD FRONT...WITH SPEEDS 10-12 KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
208 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY THEN MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW
BANDED HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THIS MORNING REMAINING WELL SOUTH
AND EAST OF NANTUCKETS. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR FORECAST AREA MAINLY
DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY.
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDINESS WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM A CYCLONE
PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS REGION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIFT OUT TO SEA TODAY...AS
DRIER NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THE WIND SHIFT WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL REMAIN
MOISTURE STARVED DURING ITS PASSAGE. ADDED TERRAIN KICK MAY ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
USED A BLEND OF WARM MAV NUMBERS WITH COOLER MET READINGS. THIS
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN QUITE SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A SHORT
WAVE MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION
TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME CLOUDINESS SKIRTING SOUTHERN AREAS.
IT WILL BE BACK TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION REMAINS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG
MARCH SUN WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S DESPITE H8 TEMPS IN THE -14 TO -16C RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COUPLE OF MINOR CLIPPERS MOVING THRU THE WNWLY FLOW ALFT WILL
PRODUCE SCT SNW SHWRS SUN NIGHT THRU TUE. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FOR WED. THE BIG QUESTION FOR WED NIGHT AND THU WILL BE
IF THE DIGGING NRN TROF THRU THE MIDWEST CAN PHASE WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY BEING KICKED NEWD FROM THE SRN STREAM. AT THIS TIME THE
MODELS ARE NOT PHASING THE SYSTEMS ALLOWING NOTHING MORE THAN A
WEAK NRN STREAM TROF TO MOVE THRU ON THU. THE EURO HAS ALSO BACKED
OFF WITH THE PHASING OF THE SYSTEMS. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
THOUGH SO STAYED WITH THE SUPERBLEND AND MAINLY CHC POPS FOR WED
NIGHT AND THU. TEMPS THRU THE OUTLOOK PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN BLO
NORMAL BUT NOT THE EXTREME COLD OF THE PAST WEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...
VFR CONDS SUN BECOMING MVFR SUN NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT SNW SHWRS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR SEAS AS OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS A
FEW 5 AND 6 FOOTERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA THRU WED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
JC/RAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1154 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. A QUIET PATTERN
WILL PERSIST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
NOT MUCH PCPN FALLING ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER AN AREA OF HEAVIER
PCPN WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MOVING EAST. THIS PCPN IS
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR ALPENA TO
MADISON. 00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. FEEL WE/LL SEE DYNAMICAL COOLING AS THE PCPN MOVES
EAST. GIVEN SFC TEMPS STILL NEAR 40 ACROSS THE CWA...WE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING AND HAVE GONE WITH A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH SOME
WEAK WAVE ENERGY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AFTER SUNSET THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
COULD BE RAIN OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY TO CHANGE EVERYTHING TO SNOW. HRRR AND
GFS SEEM TO BE A PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING AND WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR SOME FREEZING PRECIP WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST.
NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS TONIGHT OR AMOUNT
OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. SNOWY SURFACES COULD SEE A QUICK
GLAZE OF ICE...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS TONIGHT.
SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH WHERE IT DOES SNOW BUT
AGAIN...EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS VERY LITTLE IMPACTS FROM THIS
PRECIPITATION.
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE STALLING OUT OF ANY PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
INDIANA BORDER UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST LATE IN THE DAY. ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP SATURDAY THAT WILL BE IN FORM OF SNOW AND
AGAIN...LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IF ANY OCCURS AT ALL. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK REACHING THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MINS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES. TRANQUIL
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO BRING A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PCPN BY LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
LOTS OF GULF MOISTURE TO DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. A CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST PCPN WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH TO SE OF OUR FCST AREA.
12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE IS STILL FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE LOW AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED PCPN SHIELD AND SUGGESTS THE NORTHERMOST PERIPHERY OF
THE PCPN MAY CLIP SOUTHERN MI WITH SOME SNOW WEDNESDAY. IT
SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL STAY SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TO MID ATLANTIC REGIONS.
THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z GLOBAL GEM DO NOT SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL PHASE UNTIL LATE WEEK WITH THE SFC LOW
REALLY NOT STRENGTHENING UNTIL IT REACHES THE EASTERN CONUS AS
THAT OCCURS. 12Z GFS GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS THAT SYSTEM WELL SOUTH
OF OUR REGION.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AT
LEAST FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TRANQUIL WX IS EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
A QUICK BURST OF PRECIPITATION WILL WORK THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT THREE HOURS...OR THROUGH 09Z OR SO. EXPECTING A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...TRENDING TOWARD ALL SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHT. LIGHT MVFR FOG/HAZE (3-5SM) WILL ALSO WORK
THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND ACT TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
PROBABLY EVEN MORE SO THAN THE PRECIP.
CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD MVFR AFTER 08Z TO 09Z WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL PAINTING A
PESSIMISTIC MVFR CEILING PICTURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
THINKING WE MAY CLEAR OUT QUICKER AND STILL PLAYING THE TAFS THAT
WAY. FEEL THE MODELS ARE HANGING ON TO A BIT TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL SNOW MELT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE FREEZING HIGH TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING WILL HELP TO SLOWLY ERODE SOME OF THE SNOW PACK AND
ICE COVER IN LOWER MICHIGAN. NO REAL RAINMAKERS OR HEAT WAVES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO LEADING TO PRETTY STABLE RIVER
CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
305 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO THE SUPERIOR
AND HEBRON AREAS. THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL CHANCES ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER TODAY. ALSO...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL BANDS...SO THIS WILL BE
NOTED IN THE HWO.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SLID THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING...A BREEZY NORTH WIND HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO A LOW THAT STALLED OUT OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
PANHANDLES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING A TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS WERE
HITTING IN AND OUT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LEANED ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND DID NOT ISSUE A CHEAP LAST MINUTE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT TODAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE CALMING DOWN.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIED TO ELEVATED OMEGA AND
FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB TROUGH
CURRENTLY SLIDING OVER THE REGION. THE SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD BE ORIENTED IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND.
THE BAND WILL SLIDE OVER THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT TODAY WITH ITS
SOLUTION...SO LEANED THE FORECAST AND POPS TOWARDS THIS OUTCOME.
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNRISE. LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL IS FORECAST...BUT AREAS WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS ONGOING
WILL EXPERIENCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 TO 3 MILES FOR A
BRIEF TIME PERIOD. THE SREF HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS EVENT WELL FOR
VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAS PLACED THE WORST
VISIBILITIES ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN
00Z AND 04Z.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
OVERVIEW...OUTSTANDING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL
KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING WITH LOTS OF SUN ALLOWING FOR A GOOD WARM UP...WHICH SHOULD
EASILY MAKE SUNDAY THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON
SUNDAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
PLAINS. THE SFC WIND WILL LIGHTEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
MAKING FOR AN EVEN NICER DAY...LIKELY THE NICEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
JUST A LIGHT BREEZE.
TUESDAY...THE MORNING MAY START OUT MILD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY SINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MAY END UP BEING GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
PASSES THROUGH. WILL CALL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID
50S SOUTH...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES GIVEN
FRONTAL TIMING ISSUES AS WE ARE STILL 4 DAYS OUT. THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT DO APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER SFC LAYER
MAY SEE RAIN INITIALLY AND THEN SNOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TIMING.
WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...BUT NO SEVERE COLD
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. RATHER THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD WITH HIGHS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND NORMAL. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN APPEARS WARM AND DRY. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY UNDERCUT AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...BUT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE OVERWHELMINGLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST. WIND SPEED WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
SOUTHWEST ZONES COULD MIX TO AROUND 825 MB...WHICH WOULD PULL THE
DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE SFC ALONG WITH SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS. USED
A MIXED DOWN TOOL TO COME UP WITH DEWPOINTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS MORE REALISTIC THAN THE ALLBLEND DEWPOINTS.
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1159 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL CHANCES ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER TODAY. ALSO...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL BANDS...SO THIS WILL BE
NOTED IN THE HWO.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SLID THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING...A BREEZY NORTH WIND HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO A LOW THAT STALLED OUT OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
PANHANDLES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING A TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS WERE
HITTING IN AND OUT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LEANED ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND DID NOT ISSUE A CHEAP LAST MINUTE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT TODAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE CALMING DOWN.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIED TO ELEVATED OMEGA AND
FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB TROUGH
CURRENTLY SLIDING OVER THE REGION. THE SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD BE ORIENTED IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND.
THE BAND WILL SLIDE OVER THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT TODAY WITH ITS
SOLUTION...SO LEANED THE FORECAST AND POPS TOWARDS THIS OUTCOME.
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNRISE. LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL IS FORECAST...BUT AREAS WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS ONGOING
WILL EXPERIENCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 TO 3 MILES FOR A
BRIEF TIME PERIOD. THE SREF HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS EVENT WELL FOR
VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAS PLACED THE WORST
VISIBILITIES ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN
00Z AND 04Z.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
OVERVIEW...OUTSTANDING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL
KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING WITH LOTS OF SUN ALLOWING FOR A GOOD WARM UP...WHICH SHOULD
EASILY MAKE SUNDAY THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON
SUNDAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
PLAINS. THE SFC WIND WILL LIGHTEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
MAKING FOR AN EVEN NICER DAY...LIKELY THE NICEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
JUST A LIGHT BREEZE.
TUESDAY...THE MORNING MAY START OUT MILD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY SINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MAY END UP BEING GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
PASSES THROUGH. WILL CALL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID
50S SOUTH...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES GIVEN
FRONTAL TIMING ISSUES AS WE ARE STILL 4 DAYS OUT. THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT DO APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER SFC LAYER
MAY SEE RAIN INITIALLY AND THEN SNOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TIMING.
WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...BUT NO SEVERE COLD
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. RATHER THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD WITH HIGHS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND NORMAL. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN APPEARS WARM AND DRY. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY UNDERCUT AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...BUT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE OVERWHELMINGLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST. WIND SPEED WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
SOUTHWEST ZONES COULD MIX TO AROUND 825 MB...WHICH WOULD PULL THE
DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE SFC ALONG WITH SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS. USED
A MIXED DOWN TOOL TO COME UP WITH DEWPOINTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS MORE REALISTIC THAN THE ALLBLEND DEWPOINTS.
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
255 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING...AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE CENTER WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO IA LATER TODAY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH LATEST LOOPS SHOW SOME BREAKING UP AS
THE LEADING EDGE MOVES UNDER THE SFC HIGH. RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE CLOUDS SO WILL
FOLLOW THAT AND KEEP CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE WEST FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOUTH WINDS AND
WARMER AIR MOVING IN WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S TODAY.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TO PICK UP OVER THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BUT THINK
WITH MIXING THAT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL MUCH...MAINLY INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
WITH 850MB TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA GETTING CLOSE TO 10 C. WITH
SOME SUN AND NOT MUCH SNOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...TEMPS
COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING IN
OUR NORTHEAST FOR THIS SHORTWAVE ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN FURTHER NORTH. MONDAY SHOULD BE WARM FOR MOST OF THE DAY
ALTHOUGH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION TRIES TO SLIP IN FROM THE NORTH.
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL
KEEP HIGHS MONDAY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR NOW. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP
IN THE 20S FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITHIN THIS
NORTHERN STREAM BRANCH...THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
NORTH...KEEPING THE AREA PRIMARILY DRY. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A PERIOD
OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE
STILL. WITH THE SFC HIGH PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST...THE COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD BE BRIEF...WITH LOW-LEVEL WARMING BEGINNING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...TEMPS COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE TOO COOL ON
WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE ANOTHER SFC LOW PASSING
TO THE NORTH WITH FAVORABLE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE TIMING IS MORE UNCERTAIN AT
THIS RANGE...CURRENT MODELS WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY WARMER THAN
INDICATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF PRECIP MAY
BRUSH NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOMEWHAT FOR
FRIDAY BUT REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
UPDATED TO GO CLOUDIER AT DVL-GFK-FAR TAF SITES AS MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER SPREADS INTO THE AREA THE REST OF THE NIGHT EXITING SATURDAY
MORNING. CIRRUS WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE AREA SAT MIDDAY-AFTN.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTH ESP
IN RRV/ERN ND 10-15 KTS SAT AFTN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1140 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
AREA OF MID CLOUDS SEEMS TO BE HANDLED BY RAP MODEL PRETTY WELL.
BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT CLOUDS WHICH RUN FROM SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA INTO DVL BASIN TO JAMESTOWN AND EXTEND WESTWARD WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THUS UPDATED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS INTO ERN ND/RRV AND THUS
PROBABLY NOT AS COLD TONIGHT SO RAISED LOWS SOME. RAP HAS THIS
BATCH OF CLOUDS CLEARING A BIT AFTER DAWN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
CIRRUS THICKENING UP SATURDAY MIDDAY-AFTN AS WINDS TURN SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES...WITH
THE MAIN CHALLENGES TEMPS AS WE BEGIN TO WARM UP. WILL UTILIZE A
MODEL BLEND AND LEAN ON THE SLIGHTLY WARMER ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE
ONCE WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS ON SUNDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...ONE MORE COLD NIGHT TO GET THROUGH AS A SFC HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. MOST AREAS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO...AND
EXPECT THE NORTHERN VALLEY WHERE SOME FRESH SNOW FELL LAST NIGHT
TO FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 BELOW...PERHAPS LOCALLY COLDER.
ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
COULD ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL WARM TODAYS
READINGS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND DRY.
FOR SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WON/T FALL MUCH WITH WAA AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPS COULD ACTUALLY SLOWLY RISE LATE IN THE
NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +5C BY 12Z SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MOST AREAS APPROACHING 40 AT LEAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPS COULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY WITH SOME MID LEVEL COOLING...BUT GIVEN
WESTERLY SFC TRAJECTORY IT WON/T BE MUCH COOLER. THERE WILL BE A
LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE FAR NE CLOSER TO THE
SFC BOUNDARY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AS IT WILL BE
DRY FOR MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS AND MILD.
FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PHASED WAVE TO COME ABOARD OF PAC
NW AS EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS ROLLING WITH GUIDANCE AGREEING IN
SPLITTING FLOW AS IT TRAVERSES ROCKIES. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MORE NW FLOW...BUT WITH SEASONABLY COOL AIR
TO START AROUND MID WEEK. THESE MODELS GO OUT OF PHASE LATER IN
THE WEEK HOWEVER WITH GFS DIGGING SOMETHING SOUTH OF HERE AND
ECMWF WITH A MORE ZONAL SCENARIO. A BLEND OF THESE OFFERS SLIGHT
POPS FOR PART OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND MILDER TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS
HOLDING CLOSE EITHER SIDE OF THE ZERO MARK WILL PORTEND ANOTHER
MIXED BAG TYPE OF EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
UPDATED TO GO CLOUDIER AT DVL-GFK-FAR TAF SITES AS MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER SPREADS INTO THE AREA THE REST OF THE NIGHT EXITING SATURDAY
MORNING. CIRRUS WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE AREA SAT MIDDAY-AFTN.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTH ESP
IN RRV/ERN ND 10-15 KTS SAT AFTN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...WJB/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
652 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE REGION TODAY. A BRIEF MIX OF SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 40S IN EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA. COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
DIFFICULT INTRICACIES WRT NEAR TERM FORECAST. 00 UTC NAM12 APPEARS
DEFICIENT IN ANALYSIS/PROG OF MAX T/TW ALOFT PER LAPS SNDGS/PLAN
VIEW COMPARO AND CATCHUP TREND OF MORE RECENT RUC13 RUNS. PERHAPS
ATTRIBUTABLE TO OVERALL STRENGTH OF UPSTREAM MID TROPOSPHERIC JETLET
AND COHERENT/SYMBIOTIC MELD OF SUCCINCT SRN STREAM EJECTION INTO
MOUTH OF OH RIVER AND LOW AMPLITUDE NRN WAVE ACRS WI/IA DESCENDING
SEWD INTO REGION. LEADING 5H HFC IN 40-50M/12 HR RANGE RESULTANT
DEEPENING OF STRONGLY POS TILLTED 925-8H TROF AXIS FM SRN ONT INTO
NRN IL...PROVIDING INCRSD WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INADVOF AND WELL LEFT
OF SFC FNTL POSITION THIS AM. TRACK OF SHORTWAVE AND FGEN FOCUS
FAVOR HIEST POPS GNRLY EITHER SIDE OF TOLL ROAD. PTYPE OBVIOUSLY A
CONCERN...THOUGH INITIAL PTYPE SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID INTO MID AM WITH
SUFCNT DEPTH OF WARM TW...AS WAS SEEN WITH LEAD MID LVL MSTR AXIS
NOW INTO NWRN OH. SLIGHT CONCERN FOR POCKETS OF FZG RAIN ACRS FAR
NWRN CWA WHERE SFC TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FZG ATTM...BUT WITH MAJORITY
OF MESONET SITES THERE AND UPSTREAM ABOVE FZG WITH SMALL T/TD
SPREADS WL HOLD FOR LIQUID DOMINANT. TRACK OF SRN STREAM DCVA INTO
SRN CWA AND KILX HYDROCLASSIFICATION WITH SOME GRAUPEL WILL RELEGATE
CHC SLEET MAINLY TO ALONG/SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. GRADUAL N/S COLLAPSE OF
THERMAL PROFILES TO BRING CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW...SAVE FOR FAR SERN
CWA WHERE NEAR SFC TEMPS LKLY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST PARTIAL MELT WITH
CHCS FOR MIXED RA/SN INTO AFTN. SLIGHT LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
AS CORE OF 925MB THERMAL TROF SETTLES ACRS CWA ATOP STRONG PLAINS
SFC HIGH TO BECOMES SPRAWLED FM SRN PLAINS NEWD TOWARD WRN LK ERIE
BY 12 UTC SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM WITH WARMER AIR TRYING TO WORK BACK
INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS +6 C...LOW
PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH MAY SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...LIMITING POTENTIAL HEATING. FULL
MIXING POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS WELL WITH AT BEST 925 MB WHERE
COLD POCKET WILL REMAIN. HAVE CONITNUED WITH A DECENT GRADIENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH ALL AREAS CLIMBING ABOUT FREEZING BUT VARYING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S SOUTH. ADDED SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING THERMAL PROFILES ALL POINT TOWARDS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AS TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE SW STATES.
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WANES QUICKLY STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS CONITNUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DETAILS ON POTENTIAL
PHASING OF NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
SEVERAL RUNS THE MORE AGRESSIVE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF AND SHOWS A
FURTHER SOUTH...LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. WITH IT NO LONGER BEING IN
THE MINORITY FOR THE STRONGER SYSTEM...BEST COURSE OF ACTION WOULD
BE TO LOWER POPS (AS ALLBLEND DOES). HOWEVER...SINCE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO BE ADEQUATELY SAMPLED YET AND MORE FLUCUATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...CONSISTENCY IS WARRANTED WITH NO CHANGES TO POPS. TEMPS
WILL COOL OFF BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S DUE TO CLOUD COVER/START
OF BRIEF SHOT OF CAA WEDS. MODELS BEGIN TO WITH GFS INITIALLY FASTER
WITH RETURN OF WARMER AIR BUT ECMWF PICKS UP THE PACE WITH BOTH
MODELS SHOWING ABOVE ZERO 850 MB TEMPS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND 3 TO 5
C TEMPS FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE 40S AND LIKELY SOME 50S BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES TO SEND THE ROLLER COASTER BACK DOWN THE TRACK. THURS-SAT
PERIOD
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
FOCUS REMAINS ON UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND THERMAL PROFILES WITH
PRECIP INTO NWRN IN ATTM. PRIMARILY TRANSITION FROM RAPL TO SNOW
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT ZR/ZL PSBL...THOUGH
POINT/AIRFIELD CHCS TOO LOW FOR MENTION. PRIMARILY FUELING/ALT
REQUIREMENTS TEMPO IFR AT KSBN THROUGH 20 UTC...AND SLIGHTLY LATER
15-21 UTC. TRAILING EDGE OF PRECIP AS IT SHUNTS SWD THROUGH THE
DAY COULD LOSE ICE NUCLEATION WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF ZL
PSBL...THOUGH AGAIN POINT CHCS QUITE LOW. SUBSIDENCE AND INCRSD
ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AID IN AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING SAT NIGHT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
510 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE REGION TODAY. A BRIEF MIX OF SLEET IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 24.
OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 40S
IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA. COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD TONIGHT WITH
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
DIFFICULT INTRICACIES WRT NEAR TERM FORECAST. 00 UTC NAM12 APPEARS
DEFICIENT IN ANALYSIS/PROG OF MAX T/TW ALOFT PER LAPS SNDGS/PLAN
VIEW COMPARO AND CATCHUP TREND OF MORE RECENT RUC13 RUNS. PERHAPS
ATTRIBUTABLE TO OVERALL STRENGTH OF UPSTREAM MID TROPOSPHERIC JETLET
AND COHERENT/SYMBIOTIC MELD OF SUCCINCT SRN STREAM EJECTION INTO
MOUTH OF OH RIVER AND LOW AMPLITUDE NRN WAVE ACRS WI/IA DESCENDING
SEWD INTO REGION. LEADING 5H HFC IN 40-50M/12 HR RANGE RESULTANT
DEEPENING OF STRONGLY POS TILLTED 925-8H TROF AXIS FM SRN ONT INTO
NRN IL...PROVIDING INCRSD WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INADVOF AND WELL LEFT
OF SFC FNTL POSITION THIS AM. TRACK OF SHORTWAVE AND FGEN FOCUS
FAVOR HIEST POPS GNRLY EITHER SIDE OF TOLL ROAD. PTYPE OBVIOUSLY A
CONCERN...THOUGH INITIAL PTYPE SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID INTO MID AM WITH
SUFCNT DEPTH OF WARM TW...AS WAS SEEN WITH LEAD MID LVL MSTR AXIS
NOW INTO NWRN OH. SLIGHT CONCERN FOR POCKETS OF FZG RAIN ACRS FAR
NWRN CWA WHERE SFC TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FZG ATTM...BUT WITH MAJORITY
OF MESONET SITES THERE AND UPSTREAM ABOVE FZG WITH SMALL T/TD
SPREADS WL HOLD FOR LIQUID DOMINANT. TRACK OF SRN STREAM DCVA INTO
SRN CWA AND KILX HYDROCLASSIFICATION WITH SOME GRAUPEL WILL RELEGATE
CHC SLEET MAINLY TO ALONG/SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. GRADUAL N/S COLLAPSE OF
THERMAL PROFILES TO BRING CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW...SAVE FOR FAR SERN
CWA WHERE NEAR SFC TEMPS LKLY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST PARTIAL MELT WITH
CHCS FOR MIXED RA/SN INTO AFTN. SLIGHT LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
AS CORE OF 925MB THERMAL TROF SETTLES ACRS CWA ATOP STRONG PLAINS
SFC HIGH TO BECOMES SPRAWLED FM SRN PLAINS NEWD TOWARD WRN LK ERIE
BY 12 UTC SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM WITH WARMER AIR TRYING TO WORK BACK
INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS +6 C...LOW
PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH MAY SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...LIMITING POTENTIAL HEATING. FULL
MIXING POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS WELL WITH AT BEST 925 MB WHERE
COLD POCKET WILL REMAIN. HAVE CONITNUED WITH A DECENT GRADIENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH ALL AREAS CLIMBING ABOUT FREEZING BUT VARYING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S SOUTH. ADDED SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING THERMAL PROFILES ALL POINT TOWARDS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AS TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE SW STATES.
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WANES QUICKLY STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS CONITNUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DETAILS ON POTENTIAL
PHASING OF NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
SEVERAL RUNS THE MORE AGRESSIVE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF AND SHOWS A
FURTHER SOUTH...LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. WITH IT NO LONGER BEING IN
THE MINORITY FOR THE STRONGER SYSTEM...BEST COURSE OF ACTION WOULD
BE TO LOWER POPS (AS ALLBLEND DOES). HOWEVER...SINCE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO BE ADEQUATELY SAMPLED YET AND MORE FLUCUATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...CONSISTENCY IS WARRANTED WITH NO CHANGES TO POPS. TEMPS
WILL COOL OFF BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S DUE TO CLOUD COVER/START
OF BRIEF SHOT OF CAA WEDS. MODELS BEGIN TO WITH GFS INITIALLY FASTER
WITH RETURN OF WARMER AIR BUT ECMWF PICKS UP THE PACE WITH BOTH
MODELS SHOWING ABOVE ZERO 850 MB TEMPS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND 3 TO 5
C TEMPS FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE 40S AND LIKELY SOME 50S BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES TO SEND THE ROLLER COASTER BACK DOWN THE TRACK. THURS-SAT
PERIOD
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
NARROW AXIS OF LIGHT RAFL APPROACHING KSBN...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF
LULL UNTIL APPROACH OF UPSTREAM LOW AMPLITUDE TROF LATER THIS
MORNING SUPPORTS ADDNL LIGHT PRECIP. AS COLUMN SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY COOLED BY THEN...EXPECT SN TO BE DOMINANT WITH 5-6
HOURS OF PRIMARILY LOW END MVFR/FUELING-ALT REQUIREMENTS AND
SHORTER DURATION/3HR TEMPO IFR CONDS AT PEAK OF PRECIP/SATURATION
DEPTH. IMPROVING CONDS BY LATE AFTN/EVE AS STRONG SFC RIDGE OVR
DAKOTAS BECOMES SPRAWLED FM SWRN GRTLKS INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER/MURPHY
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
818 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY THEN MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
815AM UPDATE...
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION UP TO 925
MB (+3C). WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TO MIX UP TO THIS LEVEL WHICH
WHEN EXTRAPOLATED DOWN TO THE SURFACE YIELDS A TEMPERATURE OF 46
DEGREES. AS A RESULT... EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF. ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS
CLOUD COVER SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD LIMIT
HEATING... BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM RISING WELL
INTO THE 40S. MOUNTAINS ARE IN A COOLER AIR MASS... DO NOT HAVE
THIS SHARP INVERSION... AND WILL BE SEEING COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT TODAY SO TEMPERATURES THERE WILL NOT BE AS WARM. HAVE
UPDATED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS TO REFLECT
THESE THOUGHTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR PORTLAND SHOULD BE
AROUND 21Z.
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. SOME OF
THIS CLOUDINESS WILL DIMINISH AS THE MOISTURE ATTEMPTS TO REACH
THE COASTLINE. AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS...ADDED TERRAIN KICK
MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
USED A BLEND OF WARM MAV NUMBERS WITH COOLER MET READINGS. THIS
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN QUITE SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A SHORT
WAVE MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION
TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME CLOUDINESS SKIRTING SOUTHERN AREAS.
IT WILL BE BACK TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION REMAINS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG
MARCH SUN WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S DESPITE H8 TEMPS IN THE -14 TO -16C RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COUPLE OF MINOR CLIPPERS MOVING THRU THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. COLD
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE BIG QUESTION
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE IF THE DIGGING NORTHERN
TROUGH THRU THE MIDWEST CAN PHASE WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY BEING
KICKED NE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE
NOT PHASING THE SYSTEMS ALLOWING NOTHING MORE THAN A WEAK NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH TO MOVE THRU ON THURSDAY. THE EURO HAS ALSO BACKED
OFF WITH THE PHASING OF THE SYSTEMS. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
THOUGH SO STAYED WITH THE SUPERBLEND AND MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THRU THE OUTLOOK PERIOD
LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT THE EXTREME COLD OF THE PAST
WEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY BECOMING MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR SEAS AS OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS A
FEW 5 AND 6 FOOTERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRU WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...RM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
638 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY THEN MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FROPA FOR PORTLAND SHOULD BE AROUND 21Z.
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. SOME OF
THIS CLOUDINESS WILL DIMINISH AS THE MOISTURE ATTEMPTS TO REACH
THE COASTLINE. AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS...ADDED TERRAIN KICK MAY ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.
USED A BLEND OF WARM MAV NUMBERS WITH COOLER MET READINGS. THIS
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN QUITE SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A SHORT
WAVE MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION
TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME CLOUDINESS SKIRTING SOUTHERN AREAS.
IT WILL BE BACK TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION REMAINS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE STRONG
MARCH SUN WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S DESPITE H8 TEMPS IN THE -14 TO -16C RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COUPLE OF MINOR CLIPPERS MOVING THRU THE WNWLY FLOW ALFT WILL
PRODUCE SCT SNW SHWRS SUN NIGHT THRU TUE. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FOR WED. THE BIG QUESTION FOR WED NIGHT AND THU WILL BE
IF THE DIGGING NRN TROF THRU THE MIDWEST CAN PHASE WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY BEING KICKED NEWD FROM THE SRN STREAM. AT THIS TIME THE
MODELS ARE NOT PHASING THE SYSTEMS ALLOWING NOTHING MORE THAN A
WEAK NRN STREAM TROF TO MOVE THRU ON THU. THE EURO HAS ALSO BACKED
OFF WITH THE PHASING OF THE SYSTEMS. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
THOUGH SO STAYED WITH THE SUPERBLEND AND MAINLY CHC POPS FOR WED
NIGHT AND THU. TEMPS THRU THE OUTLOOK PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN BLO
NORMAL BUT NOT THE EXTREME COLD OF THE PAST WEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...
VFR CONDS SUN BECOMING MVFR SUN NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT SNW SHWRS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR SEAS AS OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS A
FEW 5 AND 6 FOOTERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA THRU WED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
JC/RAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
512 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
THINGS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY BREAK UP AS RIDGING WORKS INTO THE AREA... AND THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPSTREAM
CLOUD COVER OVER THE DAKOTAS IS A BIT MORE CONCERNING... SINCE IT
ISN/T BEING PARTICULARLY WELL HANDLED BY THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THE
RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS... BUT IT WANTS TO
BREAK IT UP FAIRLY QUICKLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
FOR NOW... TOOK A COMPROMISE STANCE... ALLOWING THESE CLOUDS TO MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA... BUT THEN WORKING TOWARD PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN GENERAL BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS WE SEE A
BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER 925-850MB TEMPERATURES PASS ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER... RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN TONIGHT... WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA. READINGS
IN THE FAR WEST WILL LIKELY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY SUNDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
THE LONG TERM CAN STILL BE SUMMED UP INTO ONE WORD...SNOWMELT!
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH ONE
CHANCE FOR A MINOR RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY MORNING.
MAIN QUESTION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS HOW WARM DO WE GET BOTH
DAYS...AND HOW WARM DO LOWS REMAIN MONDAY MORNING. MODEL AGREEMENT
REMAINS HIGH ON THE AREA GETTING INTO A HEALTHY WARM SECTOR OF A
CLIPPER TYPE LOW TRACKING ESE ACROSS SRN CANADA MONDAY. NAM/ECMWF
SIMILAR WITH SHOWING A 925 MB WARM NOSE COMING UP INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAX 925 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 10C AND 17C.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MPX AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE HEART OF THE WARM
NOSE AROUND 6Z MONDAY...WITH COOLER 925 MB TEMPS EXPECTED BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. STILL CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE
ENTIRE AREA GOING INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE OFF
THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WC MN SUNDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
SUNDAY/MONDAY WAS TO INCREASE LOWS MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THE EXPECTED
WARM SECTOR OVERHEAD. FORECAST NOW HAS LOWS OF 32 OR GREATER
BASICALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER...THOUGH EVEN THIS MAY BE TO COOL
GIVEN HOW WARM THE AIR AT 925MB WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR BOTH
DAYS...THE FORECAST HIGHS FAVOR THE MOS GUIDANCE /AS RAW NCEP MODELS
ARE OVER COOLING SFC TEMPS OVER THE SNOW/...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FAVOR THE WARMER RAW MODEL OUTPUT. MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN A SLIGHT COOLING OF TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
LOOK TO OFFER A REPEAT OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY /THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER 925 MB TEMPS/.
RUNNING THE LOCAL SNOW LOSS TOOL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WE GOT
A GOOD 5-8 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH LOSS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK /MORE
WEST LESS EAST/. GIVEN CURRENT SNOW DEPTH ANALYSIS FROM DOWN THE
HALL AT THE NOHRSC...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE THE EDGE
OF THE SNOW PACK UP TO NEAR THE MINNESOTA RIVER IN SW MN...WITH ALL
BUT THE NE CWA LIKELY SEEING THE SNOW DEPTH BACK DOWN UNDER 10
INCHES. WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED...FLOOD CONCERNS ARE NOT HIGH...BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR ICE JAMS NEXT WEEK AS ICED UP
AREA RIVERS BEGIN TO BREAKUP.
AS FOR THE LONE PRECIP CHANCE IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING ACROSS SRN
MN...WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED BETWEEN 6Z AND 18Z
TUESDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES RIGHT NOW COMING WITH HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIP MAKES IT. THE ECMWF/SREF ARE THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH
PRECIP...WHILE THE NAM/GFS/GEM ARE FATHER SOUTH...KEEPING THE BULK
OF QPF ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. FORCING FOR THE PRECIP HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH EITHER...WITH THIS PRECIP REGION SETTING UP WITHIN A COUPLED
JET AREA BETWEEN NRN STREAM ENERGY EXTENDING FROM MN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SRN STREAM ENERGY GOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERMAL
PROFILES STILL SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING
TO A WET SNOW AS CAA SLOWLY COOLS THE WARM NOSE AS THE PRECIP MOVES
IN. MOST MODELS SHOW AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW BEING POSSIBLE WITH
THIS PRECIP BAND TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE 6Z NAM DOES SHOW
THAT WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY LET OUR GUARD DOWN WITH THIS ONE...AS IT
LAYS DOWN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF WITH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER 6
INCHES FROM SW MN INTO NC IA. LIKE THE SYSTEM WE SAW TUESDAY...THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD FGEN BAND TO SETUP TO THE NORTH OF WHAT
WILL BE A DEEPENING LOW GOING FROM KS/NEB INTO NRN MO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
THINGS WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ISSUES WITH VFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE
MINNESOTA/DAKOTAS BORDER WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
NEAR-MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA HAVE BEEN
BREAKING UP WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION... BUT KEAU COULD STILL SEE SOME CEILINGS NEAR 030 FOR
A FEW HOURS. UPSTREAM... THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
SPILLING DOWN THE 700-500MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS IS
TENDING TO ERODE ON ITS EASTERN EDGE... BUT THE RAP SUGGESTS SOME
OF IT WILL AT LEAST IMPACT THE WESTERN SITES THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER... THESE CEILINGS ARE MAINLY IN THE 050-100 RANGE... SO
ANY BKN CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AS
THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA... BUT WILL PICK UP LATER TONIGHT
AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
KMSP...MAIN ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TAF IS WHETHER WE/LL SEE
ANY OF THE UPSTREAM VFR CEILINGS MAKE IT INTO THE AREA TODAY. FOR
NOW... KEPT THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST... BUT IT/S CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE SOME CEILINGS AROUND 070 COULD SNEAK IN FOR A TIME LATER
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES EXPECTED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
MONDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
WITH IT A CHANCE FOR A PASSING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER TO CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DEVELOPING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN A MODERATION TREND THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS SPIKING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SITES ACROSS WESTERN
NY ALREADY REPORTING VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S. HAVE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. ALSO REDUCED POPS TO MAINLY SLGT CHC ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AS LATEST HRRR SHOWS BEST ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO NORTHWESTERN PA. JUST NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF FORCING TO GET THINGS GOING WITH THIS BOUNDARY. SLGT CHC TO
LOW END CHC SHOULD COVER THINGS APPROPRIATELY AS FEATURE PASSES.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT NOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO PENINSULA PER
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS RESIDING
IN THE LOWER 30S JUST WEST OF BUFFALO...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FCST REGION. BIGGEST FCST PROBLEM TODAY IS
DETERMINING WHETHER THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP
WITH ITS PASSAGE...AS ALL FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER VERY
MEAGER QPF AMOUNTS AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN ONLY LOW CHC POPS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND THIS EVEN MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH.
P-TYPE FCST IS A LITTLE TRICKY AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH BETTER HEATING EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
FINGER LAKES AND POINTS SOUTH. AS A RESULT...P-TYPE INITIALLY
SHOULD BE A RA/SN MIX ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE
OVER TO RA SHWRS WITH FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WHERE WARMER
TEMPS SHOULD RESIDE. REGARDLESS...WE/RE LOOKING AT A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST DUE TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE OVERALL
WEAKNESS OF THE BOUNDARY. COOLEST TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH WHERE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH...ENOUGH
WARMING SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LWR WYOMING VLY.
RAIN/SN SHWRS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO RETRACT BACK
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES BY MID-EVENING AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION LEADS TO DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. INSPECTION OF
SEVERAL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED
BASED ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND SHEAR WITHIN THE INVERSION LAYER.
THAT SAID...NAM-12 MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ORGANIZED
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS. FOR
NOW...HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN CHC MENTION THROUGH 9Z...AFTER
WHICH ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING IF ACTIVITY ACTUALLY GETS
GOING. AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES...EXPECT DRY BUT
COOLER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE LWR MISS RVR VLY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE.
UNFORTUNATELY WITH THIS OCCURRING LATE...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE TRICKY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN
ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA
SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DRIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
FCST MODELS SUGGEST A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING THROUGH OUR
AREA WITH STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.
AS THIS OCCURS...THE GFS SHOWS DEVELOPING SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LLJ
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE BULK OF
QPF NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE WHICH AGREES WELL
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BECOMING FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST AREA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCT SN SHWRS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S...WITH BEST POP POTENTIAL REMAINING NORTH OF THE
STATE LINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE
STORM FOR MID WEEK CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DUE TO A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH SEVERAL
WAVES INVOLVED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS/CANADIAN
KEEP THE NRN AND PACIFIC STREAMS SEPARATE RESULTING IN A LESS
INTENSE LOW WHICH TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT HERE.
THE ECMWF PHASES THE TWO STREAMS BINGING THE SFC LOW INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THEN INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CALL IT ALL
SNOW FOR NOW BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MIXED PRECIP IN THE
WYOMING VALLEY.
PREVIOUS DISC...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH IS HEAVILY BASED ON WPC
GUIDANCE. MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM
PASSING ACRS THE MID ATLC RGN. QUESTIONS REMAIN CONCERNING POTNL
PHASING AND SPEED OF THIS STORM. WE DID RAISE POPS TO LIKELY THIS
TIME FRAME (WED/WED NGT). OTRW SOME LGT PCPN FROM PASSING NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS (ENHANCED AT TIMES FROM LAKE INFLUENCES) PRIOR TO
THIS STORM. TEMPS XPCTD TO RISE INTO THE U30S OR LOWER 40S ON
TUE...FALLING TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS
LATER THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY OVER THE REGION FOLLOWED BY LOW VFR
CIGS BY MID MORNING THEN MVFR/LOW MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS UNDER NW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. KRME/KAVP MAY
BE PRIMARILY LOW VFR.
VARIABLE WIND BECOMING WESTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AT 8-12 KNOTS DECEASING TO 5 KNOTS
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON/TUE...MVFR CIGS MAINLY CNTRL NY WITH SCT -SHSN.
WED...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
634 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
WITH IT A CHANCE FOR A PASSING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER TO CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
DEVELOPING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN A MODERATION TREND THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS SPIKING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SITES ACROSS WESTERN
NY ALREADY REPORTING VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S. HAVE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. ALSO REDUCED POPS TO MAINLY SLGT CHC ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AS LATEST HRRR SHOWS BEST ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO NORTHWESTERN PA. JUST NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF FORCING TO GET THINGS GOING WITH THIS BOUNDARY. SLGT CHC TO
LOW END CHC SHOULD COVER THINGS APPROPRIATELY AS FEATURE PASSES.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT NOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO PENINSULA PER
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS RESIDING
IN THE LOWER 30S JUST WEST OF BUFFALO...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FCST REGION. BIGGEST FCST PROBLEM TODAY IS
DETERMINING WHETHER THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP
WITH ITS PASSAGE...AS ALL FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER VERY
MEAGER QPF AMOUNTS AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN ONLY LOW CHC POPS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND THIS EVEN MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH.
P-TYPE FCST IS A LITTLE TRICKY AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH BETTER HEATING EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
FINGER LAKES AND POINTS SOUTH. AS A RESULT...P-TYPE INITIALLY
SHOULD BE A RA/SN MIX ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE
OVER TO RA SHWRS WITH FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WHERE WARMER
TEMPS SHOULD RESIDE. REGARDLESS...WE/RE LOOKING AT A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST DUE TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE OVERALL
WEAKNESS OF THE BOUNDARY. COOLEST TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH WHERE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH...ENOUGH
WARMING SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LWR WYOMING VLY.
RAIN/SN SHWRS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO RETRACT BACK
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES BY MID-EVENING AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION LEADS TO DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. INSPECTION OF
SEVERAL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED
BASED ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND SHEAR WITHIN THE INVERSION LAYER.
THAT SAID...NAM-12 MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ORGANIZED
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS. FOR
NOW...HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN CHC MENTION THROUGH 9Z...AFTER
WHICH ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING IF ACTIVITY ACTUALLY GETS
GOING. AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES...EXPECT DRY BUT
COOLER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE LWR MISS RVR VLY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE.
UNFORTUNATELY WITH THIS OCCURRING LATE...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE TRICKY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN
ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA
SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DRIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
FCST MODELS SUGGEST A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING THROUGH OUR
AREA WITH STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.
AS THIS OCCURS...THE GFS SHOWS DEVELOPING SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LLJ
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE BULK OF
QPF NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE WHICH AGREES WELL
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BECOMING FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST AREA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCT SN SHWRS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S...WITH BEST POP POTENTIAL REMAINING NORTH OF THE
STATE LINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE
STORM FOR MID WEEK CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DUE TO A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH SEVERAL
WAVES INVOLVED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS/CANADIAN
KEEP THE NRN AND PACIFIC STREAMS SEPARATE RESULTING IN A LESS
INTENSE LOW WHICH TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT HERE.
THE ECMWF PHASES THE TWO STREAMS BINGING THE SFC LOW INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THEN INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CALL IT ALL
SNOW FOR NOW BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MIXED PRECIP IN THE
WYOMING VALLEY.
PREVIOUS DISC...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH IS HEAVILY BASED ON WPC
GUIDANCE. MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM
PASSING ACRS THE MID ATLC RGN. QUESTIONS REMAIN CONCERNING POTNL
PHASING AND SPEED OF THIS STORM. WE DID RAISE POPS TO LIKELY THIS
TIME FRAME (WED/WED NGT). OTRW SOME LGT PCPN FROM PASSING NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS (ENHANCED AT TIMES FROM LAKE INFLUENCES) PRIOR TO
THIS STORM. TEMPS XPCTD TO RISE INTO THE U30S OR LOWER 40S ON
TUE...FALLING TO BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS
LATER THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK FOLLOWED BY LOW
VFR CIGS BY MID MORNING THEN MVFR/LOW MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THROUGH 06Z MVFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
PERSIST UNDER NW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
VARIABLE WIND BECOMING WESTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AT 8-12 KNOTS DECEASING TO 5 KNOTS
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON/TUE...MVFR CIGS MAINLY CNTRL NY WITH SCT -SHSN.
WED...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
933 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
WILL UPDATE TO MAKE SOME MINOR CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS. STILL SEEING THE
MOST CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST WITH SUN IN THE EAST. THE MARCH SUN IS
MAKING ITS PRESENCE FELT TOO AS MORNING LOWS IN THE NORTHEAST WERE
IN THE TEENS BELOW AND THEY ARE ALREADY ABOVE ZERO IN PLACES THERE.
WILL WATCH HOW TEMPS PROGRESS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE
MAKING ANY HIGH TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING...AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE CENTER WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO IA LATER TODAY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH LATEST LOOPS SHOW SOME BREAKING UP AS
THE LEADING EDGE MOVES UNDER THE SFC HIGH. RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE CLOUDS SO WILL
FOLLOW THAT AND KEEP CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE WEST FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOUTH WINDS AND
WARMER AIR MOVING IN WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S TODAY.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TO PICK UP OVER THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BUT THINK
WITH MIXING THAT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL MUCH...MAINLY INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
WITH 850MB TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA GETTING CLOSE TO 10 C. WITH
SOME SUN AND NOT MUCH SNOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...TEMPS
COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING IN
OUR NORTHEAST FOR THIS SHORTWAVE ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN FURTHER NORTH. MONDAY SHOULD BE WARM FOR MOST OF THE DAY
ALTHOUGH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION TRIES TO SLIP IN FROM THE NORTH.
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL
KEEP HIGHS MONDAY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR NOW. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP
IN THE 20S FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITHIN THIS
NORTHERN STREAM BRANCH...THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
NORTH...KEEPING THE AREA PRIMARILY DRY. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A PERIOD
OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE
STILL. WITH THE SFC HIGH PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST...THE COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD BE BRIEF...WITH LOW-LEVEL WARMING BEGINNING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...TEMPS COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE TOO COOL ON
WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE ANOTHER SFC LOW PASSING
TO THE NORTH WITH FAVORABLE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE TIMING IS MORE UNCERTAIN AT
THIS RANGE...CURRENT MODELS WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY WARMER THAN
INDICATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF PRECIP MAY
BRUSH NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOMEWHAT FOR
FRIDAY BUT REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
VFR CIGS OF AROUND 6000-8000 FT CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN TAF SITES BUT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE EASTERN SITES FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL PICK
UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 13 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
633 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND THEREFORE TEMPS AS THE CLOUD DECK ONLY VERY
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THINK THAT THE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN
CWA WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE NEGATIVE TEENS WHILE THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE IN THE TEENS ABOVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING...AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE CENTER WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO IA LATER TODAY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH LATEST LOOPS SHOW SOME BREAKING UP AS
THE LEADING EDGE MOVES UNDER THE SFC HIGH. RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE CLOUDS SO WILL
FOLLOW THAT AND KEEP CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE WEST FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOUTH WINDS AND
WARMER AIR MOVING IN WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S TODAY.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TO PICK UP OVER THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BUT THINK
WITH MIXING THAT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL MUCH...MAINLY INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
WITH 850MB TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA GETTING CLOSE TO 10 C. WITH
SOME SUN AND NOT MUCH SNOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...TEMPS
COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING IN
OUR NORTHEAST FOR THIS SHORTWAVE ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN FURTHER NORTH. MONDAY SHOULD BE WARM FOR MOST OF THE DAY
ALTHOUGH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION TRIES TO SLIP IN FROM THE NORTH.
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL
KEEP HIGHS MONDAY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR NOW. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP
IN THE 20S FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITHIN THIS
NORTHERN STREAM BRANCH...THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
NORTH...KEEPING THE AREA PRIMARILY DRY. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A PERIOD
OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE
STILL. WITH THE SFC HIGH PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST...THE COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD BE BRIEF...WITH LOW-LEVEL WARMING BEGINNING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...TEMPS COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE TOO COOL ON
WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE ANOTHER SFC LOW PASSING
TO THE NORTH WITH FAVORABLE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE TIMING IS MORE UNCERTAIN AT
THIS RANGE...CURRENT MODELS WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY WARMER THAN
INDICATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF PRECIP MAY
BRUSH NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOMEWHAT FOR
FRIDAY BUT REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
VFR CIGS OF AROUND 6000-8000 FT CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN TAF SITES BUT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE EASTERN SITES FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL PICK
UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 13 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
320 AM PST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACT THE REGION LATER TODAY.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH SO MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL
LIKELY SEE RAIN. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COOLER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE
RAIN AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE MAY THEN BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRIER WEATHER AFTER MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM
ARE WINDS AND RAIN.
THINGS ARE FAIRLY QUIET RIGHT NOW...THOUGH SOMEWHAT CHILLY AFTER A
BEAUTIFUL SPRING-LIKE DAY FRIDAY .TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED INTO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PASSING CLOUDS...SOME 5
DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF FOG
ABOUT...MAINLY IN OUR PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND OUTLYING AREAS LIKE
HILLSBORO. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
AN OCCLUDING SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SEND A FRONT TOWARDS
THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER JET WILL BE RIDING
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND SEVERAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
FRONTAL WAVE FORMING/RIDING ON THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS GOOD FEED OF
MOISTURE INTO THIS SYSTEM...SO EXPECT ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING...THOUGH
NOT AS LONG LASTING AS OUR LAST EVENT.
A VERY CLEAR COASTAL JET SIGNATURE APPARENT IN EARLY MORNING MODEL
RUNS. SOUNDINGS AT KONP AND KAST SHOW STOUT STABLE LAYER AT LEVELS
NEAR THE COAST RANGE ELEVATIONS THAT WILL SUPPORT TRAPPING OF THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH
THE TERRAIN. WE WILL UPGRADE THE OREGON COAST FROM A HIGH WIND WATCH
TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. THE GRADIENT IS NOT AS STRONG FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST...AND WITH A FRONTAL WAVE POTENTIALLY PINCHING THE
GRADIENT SOME...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER HERE. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A THREAT
WITH THE COASTAL JET POTENTIAL TO KEEP THE WATCH...AND WILL SEE IF
THE 12Z NAM LOOKS MORE LIKE THE RAP MODEL. IT MAY JUST A BE HEADLAND
EVENT FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON. 850 WINDS SUPPORT HIGH ELEVATION WINDS
FOR THE COAST RANGE...SO WE WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO THE WARNING
THERE...THOUGH EXPECT WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG IN MOST OF
THE COAST RANGE COMMUNITIES. HAVE ALSO LEFT THE WILLAPA HILLS IN A
WATCH FOR THE REASONS MENTIONED FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
BLENDED TPW STILL SHOWS ABOUT 1.4" TPW ON THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH MODELED TPW FORECAST
AROUND 1.2" AT THE COAST AND ABOUT 1" INLAND. HAVE BUMPED UP QPF SOME
WITH THIS ISSUANCE AS MODELED 850 WINDS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE A
BIT HIGHER. PEAK PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.NAM SHOWS A
CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING IN THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE FEED WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES THIS EVENING. ESTIMATED RAIN TOTALS SAT NIGHT AND SUN
- 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR THE COAST AND COAST RANGE AS WELL AS THE
CASCADES. THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES PROBABLY SEE CLOSER TO 2.5
INCHES OR ISOLATED SPOTS WITH A BIT MORE. EXPECT GENERALLY 0.5 - 1
INCH FOR THE VALLEYS TOO. CONTEMPLATED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NW
CORNER OF THE AREA FOR THE GRAYS/NEHALEM BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE
IMPACTS OF THE NEW QPF HERE LATER THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF RIVERS
COULD GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE AGAIN...AS SEVERAL MAY REACH BANKFULL
LEVELS. THE GRAYS RIVER AND THE LOWER NEHALEM RIVER WOULD BE THE TWO
OF MOST CONCERN...AND POSSIBLY THE CLACKAMAS RIVER. SNOW LEVELS STAY
HIGH ENOUGH FOR NO ISSUES WITH SNOW IN THE CASCADES. FREEZING LEVELS
GET TO ABOUT 5000 FEET LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH THAT THE WINDS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG IN
THE VALLEYS FOR THIS EVENT ESPECIALLY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY BREEZY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT MAY BE ON THE THRESHOLD FOR WIND RELATED IMPACTS. MODELED
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A STRONG WIND FIELD BUT THE GRADIENT IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE WHEN THE FRONT MOVES INLAND...AND WITH A LOWER LEVEL
INVERSION NOT PROMOTING DEEPER MIXING. STILL COULD TAP INTO THE 35-40
KT WIND FIELD IN THE 6Z-9Z PERIOD...LATE THIS EVENING AND AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AS THE STRONGER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. WILL LET THE DAY
SHIFT SEE IF THE WIND FIELDS GET CLOSER TO THE THRESHOLD FOR WIND
RELATED IMPACTS WITH A LITTLE HIGHER CONFIDENCE. THE LAND AND
MUDSLIDE THREAT DOES REMAIN HIGH AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MOIST SW FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE AND WITH A FAST UPPER JET THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL
LOWS MOVING THROUGH FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHTER RAIN CHANCES...BEST
CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH. IT IS NOT UNTIL THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THAT THE FRONTAL ZONE FINALLY
GETS SHOVED EAST. THE TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING SHOWERS AND SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AT OR BELOW ELEVATIONS
ON MONDAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7.5 DEG/KM FOR A TIME ON
MONDAY.. FREEZING LEVELS BEING QUITE LOW MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WILL MEAN THE SHOWERS MAY HAVE SOME
SMALL HAIL...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT INCREASE SOME IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE
CASCADES. /KMD
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER A LINGERING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AND SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE RECENT BATCH OF MOISTURE AND CLEARING...MAY SEE SOME
PATCHY MORNING/EVENING VALLEY FOG DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SINCE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN AS WELL. MOST RECENT MODEL
RUNS HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE 07/12Z GFS STILL DIGS THE TROUGH AXIS FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...BUT HAS NOW LIFTED THE THREAT MORE INTO
CANADA SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY SHOWS. ONCE WE GET
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE SEVERAL MODEL DISCREPANCIES. WENT
MORE TOWARDS CLIMO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED SINCE THE GFS
HAS A RIDGE BUILDING OVER US...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A FRONT MOVING
ONSHORE. /27
&&
.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS OF IFR OR
LOWER FOG AND STRATUS HAVE FORMED AND WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR AFTER 16Z. COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO MVFR OR WORSE
SAT AFTERNOON AS RAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 00Z SUN...THEN DETERIORATE TO
MVFR BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...INCREASING EASTERLY GRADIENT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH MIXING TO PROVIDE FOG OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT THE
TERMINAL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SPOTS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY SEE
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THEN INCREASING RAIN WILL BRING
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS TODAY. HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH
INCREASE IN WINDS SO FAR THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THAT WE WILL
SEE GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY 12Z.
WINDS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE INNER WATERS BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A WIDE AREA OF GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT APPEAR LIKELY. CONDITIONS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE NEAR SHORE WATERS COULD SEE LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 45
TO 50 KT AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. HIGH
PRES SETTLES OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND HOLDS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SEAS RUNNING AT 6 TO 8 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LOOK FOR
A QUICK JUMP IN COMBINED SEAS SAT AS THE WIND STRENGTHENS. THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...SO MAX WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE 16 TO 19 FT RANGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
SUBSIDE SUN AFTERNOON WITH A MUCH LOWER WIND WAVE COMPONENT. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR
NORTH OREGON COAST.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
CENTRAL OREGON COAST.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-COAST RANGE OF
NORTHWEST OREGON.
WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
WILLAPA HILLS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 8 AM PST
THIS MORNING TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
808 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...12Z RAOB DATA AND OBS TRENDS SHOW DECENT LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT WE WILL KEEP CLOUD
COVER MOST OF THE DAY AS FORECAST. VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE/PRECIP
SHOULD END SHORTLY HOWEVER AS MECHANICAL MIXING BEGINS IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES WARM. COLD FRONT LOOKS A LITTLE
AHEAD OF SCHEDULE VS 06Z NAM AND LATEST RAP RUNS BUT MOST OF THE
MOMENTUM OF THIS UPPER TROUGH IS TO ITS EAST SO A BIT OF A
HESITATION IN FRONTAL MOVEMENT SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE PROGRESS
WITH WHICH UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE PLAINS SLOWS.
NEVERTHELESS WILL PROBABLY UPDATE THE GRIDS SHORTLY TO BRING THE
FRONT THROUGH MORE IN THE MIDNIGHT TO 3AM RANGE THAN THE 3AM TO
6AM RANGE. POPS MAY BE MASSAGED A BIT BUT ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE. SURFACE BASED THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT WITH ELEVATED
THUNDER/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND RAIN BEHIND. NEAR TERM TRENDS/TEMPS
LOOK GOOD. /68-JGG/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO REMAIN INTACT BETWEEN 3000-5000
FEET TODAY. MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. CIGS TO
LOWER AND CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING
AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING PREDOMINATE BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUTHEAST
STRONGEST ALONG THE 77/69E CORRIDOR WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONT
BETWEEN 06-12Z WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...COLD FRONT HAS TEMPORARILY
STALLED OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER COLORADO
BEGINS TO TAKE A LEFT TURN AND DIVE INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AS A
JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE FRONT WILL RESUME ITS SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT.
TODAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
00Z SOUNDING INDICATE A WELL ESTABLISHED CAP AT 800MB. MODELS
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THIS CAP AND DO NOT SHOW ANY EROSION UNTIL
TONIGHT ONCE THE FRONT ENTERS THE CWA. FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME
SHOWING A GRADUAL INCREASE OF POPS TODAY WITH ONLY SHOWERS MENTIONED
BUT THUNDER WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD WITH WELL PLACED SOUTHWEST JET AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO
INCREASE MAKING FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY DAY. TEMPERATURES
STARTING OFF RATHER MILD WITH A STEADY CLIMB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENTLY WARM WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WITH CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWING THIS TREND.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAP WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD. GOOD LIFT FROM THE FRONT AND MODEST
INSTABILITY WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. UPPER JET STRENGTHENS AND
DIVERGENCE INCREASES AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
YESTERDAY`S CREW BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS AND DO NOT
SEE ANY REASON TO LOWER. PWATS EXCEED SEASONAL NORMALS AND DECENT
DIVERGENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP POST FRONT LIFT GOING WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. DECENT RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK GOOD FOR EVERYONE. HPC QPF VALUES
RANGE FROM .3 TO 1 INCH SO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCATIONS SEEING
OVER 2 INCHES IN THE HEAVIER TSTMS. MILD TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT DO NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A STEADY FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND DOWN
THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. NOT A
BARN BURNING FOR WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM NORTH AND 3 TO 6 AM SOUTH.
SUNDAY GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WITH A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION WITH DIVERGENT FLOW REMAINING IN
PLACE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 850MB. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN RATHER
HIGH WITH STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDER...ALTHOUGH DECREASING...WITH
SOME LINGERING MU CAPE. RAIN TO TRANSITION INTO A MORE STRATIFORM
EVENT IF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WEAKENS COMPLETELY. TEMPERATURES TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MORNING WITH LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE
AFTERNOON. TRENDED WITH THE COOLER NAM/MET NUMBERS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE H5 TROUGH WILL BE
BEGINNING ITS EASTWARD TURN SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SW FLOW OVERHEAD.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH...WITH GOOD CONTINUING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. ENOUGH SFC
INSTABILITY COULD BE REMAINING AT THE SFC AND COLD AIR ALOFT FOR
RAINFALL TO SPARK SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY...MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE H5 TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING QUICKLY AND SKIES
CLEARING TO THE WEST. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THROUGH TEXAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH MINIMAL RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S ON THURSDAY. SFC RIDGE
STRETCHING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX QUICKLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD TO FAIR MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT PUSHES
TROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. PLENTY OF RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS
APPROACHING 7 FEET. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH
WINDS BECOMING L/V MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
RELAX...FALLING TO 2 TO 3 FEET. SOUTH WINDS RETURN ON
TUESDAY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY BELOW 10 KNOTS. THE NEXT
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
68/53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
602 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
TODAY WILL SEE A WELCOME BREAK IN THE RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SNOW AND RAIN YESTERDAY DIVES
SOUTHWARD...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. FOG
HAS SETTLED IN MAINLY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM
PINE BLUFFS TO SIDNEY...AND UP NEAR ALLIANCE. A LOOK AT AREA SFC
OBS SHOWS A WEAK LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ADVECT
THE FOG ESE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH EVENTUAL
CLEARING EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE CWA TODAY WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOS COLUMN WILL WARM TODAY WITH
FAIRLY GOOD LLVL MIXING ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AVERAGING ABOUT 5 TO
10F HIGHER...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS IN THE PANHANDLE.
A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL FURTHER DEEPEN THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WITH A THERMAL
RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD. MOS GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...AND THINK
THAT WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT FROM WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
SO...MAINTAINED THE TREND FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH 50S IN THE WEST. REGARDING THE WINDS...THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PRESSURE FALLS DEEPEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE PATTERN IS
NOT INCREDIBLY FAVORABLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT AS THE DEEPEST
PRESSURE FALLS LOOK TO BE TOO FAR TO THE EAST TO HAVE A
SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT ON THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH THAT
SAID...THE WRKHGT PRODUCT SHOWS THE LLVL GRADIENT INCREASING TO
AROUND 60 DAM DURING THE TIME OF STRONGEST WAA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WHICH LOOKS TO DEVELOP A CAPPING INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN
TOP. THIS SETUP WILL NO DOUBT BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE WIND
PRONE REGIONS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
700 MB WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO JUST AROUND 50 KTS AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE LACKING OVERALL...SO NOT THINKING WINDS WILL
BECOME ALL THAT STRONG TO WARRANT A HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HAVE SUSTAINED 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WIND PRONE
AREAS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH FOR NOW THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE LEESIDE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MAINLY ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD WITHIN
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING
OF THE WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND HOW THIS WAVE WILL
IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED VORT LOBE
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WE
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER FAIRLY NICE DAY SETTING UP FOR MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH...IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY AND MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
SUNDAY. STANDARDIZED 700MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FROM THE GEFS ARE
SHOWING STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 WHICH WILL
ALLOW US TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT WE
WOULD NOT EXPECT THEM TO REACH RECORD VALUES. WE DID BACK OFF ON
HIGHS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE SOME NEGATIVE TILT ALONG WITH A
DIGGING JET.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY:
THE ECMWF/GEM APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE AND
SHOWS THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE FORCING FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL ALL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT WHERE THE JET ENERGY FOCUSES AT. ALL OF THESE
SOLUTIONS DUE BRING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND SPREADING SOUTH ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME...SINCE THERE IS LIMITED FRONTOGENESIS...BUT THERE IS
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH THE SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
FOR A SHORT TIME PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE AREA AND BEFORE 18Z IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.
THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BY TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE SYNOPTIC LIFT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER JET MOVING OUT OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY:
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. NOT EXPECTING A BIG WARM UP AT THIS TIME...BUT
IF THIS SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT A LITTLE SOONER THINGS MAY WARM UP A
BIT QUICKER. FOR NOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS WHICH COULD SPELL 50S FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH 40S TO THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 457 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
LATEST FOG IMAGERY WAS SHOWING DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY FROM SCOTTSBLUFF SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SIDNEY.
MICROPHYSICS FROM THE VIIRS IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF
A WELL DEFINED BAND OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG STRETCHING FROM DIA TO
ALLIANCE TERMINAL. CURRENTLY...ALLIANCE IS RECEIVING SOME FOG AS WELL.
SURFACE FLOW IS FAIRLY LIGHT AT SCOTTSBLUFF WHICH IS A GOOD
INDICATION THAT A FAIRLY GOOD INVERSION IS TAKING SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SIDNEY HAS SOMEWHAT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH
SHOULD HELP ERODE THE FOG BY AROUND 15Z OR SO. THE LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING THE FOG ERODING AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL. NOT REAL
CONFIDENT ABOUT SCOTTSBLUFF ERODING THAT SOON...BUT IF THE SUN CAN
PENETRATE THE STRATUS DECK IT MAY BE ABLE TO ERODE BY MID MORNING.
AFTER THE FOG ERODES WE SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
DRY...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LESS WIND
IN THE PANHANDLE. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD 60 DEGREE READINGS AND A FEW 70S LIKELY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S. FURTHER WEST...HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL COINCIDE
WITH HUMIDITIES REMAINING 25 PERCENT OR HIGHER. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 601 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE THIS MORNING FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NIOBRARA COUNTY...AND HIGHWAY 20
REMAINS CLOSED FROM LUSK TO THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE. THE FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 530 PM THIS
EVENING. SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS IN KIMBALL COUNTY REMAIN CLOSED THIS
MORNING DUE TO FLOODING...AND THE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO
330 PM FOR THIS AREA. KIMBALL COUNTY OFFICIALS WILL VISIT THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO REASSESS THE EXTENT OF FLOODING AND ROAD
CLOSURES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
HYDROLOGY...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
459 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
TODAY WILL SEE A WELCOME BREAK IN THE RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SNOW AND RAIN YESTERDAY DIVES
SOUTHWARD...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. FOG
HAS SETTLED IN MAINLY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM
PINE BLUFFS TO SIDNEY...AND UP NEAR ALLIANCE. A LOOK AT AREA SFC
OBS SHOWS A WEAK LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ADVECT
THE FOG ESE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH EVENTUAL
CLEARING EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE CWA TODAY WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOS COLUMN WILL WARM TODAY WITH
FAIRLY GOOD LLVL MIXING ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AVERAGING ABOUT 5 TO
10F HIGHER...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS IN THE PANHANDLE.
A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL FURTHER DEEPEN THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WITH A THERMAL
RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD. MOS GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...AND THINK
THAT WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT FROM WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
SO...MAINTAINED THE TREND FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH 50S IN THE WEST. REGARDING THE WINDS...THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PRESSURE FALLS DEEPEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE PATTERN IS
NOT INCREDIBLY FAVORABLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT AS THE DEEPEST
PRESSURE FALLS LOOK TO BE TOO FAR TO THE EAST TO HAVE A
SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT ON THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH THAT
SAID...THE WRKHGT PRODUCT SHOWS THE LLVL GRADIENT INCREASING TO
AROUND 60 DAM DURING THE TIME OF STRONGEST WAA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WHICH LOOKS TO DEVELOP A CAPPING INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN
TOP. THIS SETUP WILL NO DOUBT BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE WIND
PRONE REGIONS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
700 MB WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO JUST AROUND 50 KTS AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE LACKING OVERALL...SO NOT THINKING WINDS WILL
BECOME ALL THAT STRONG TO WARRANT A HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS TIME.
HAVE SUSTAINED 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WIND PRONE
AREAS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH FOR NOW THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE LEESIDE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MAINLY ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD WITHIN
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING
OF THE WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND HOW THIS WAVE WILL
IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MONDAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED VORT LOBE
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WE
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER FAIRLY NICE DAY SETTING UP FOR MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH...IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY AND MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
SUNDAY. STANDARDIZED 700MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FROM THE GEFS ARE
SHOWING STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 WHICH WILL
ALLOW US TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT WE
WOULD NOT EXPECT THEM TO REACH RECORD VALUES. WE DID BACK OFF ON
HIGHS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE SOME NEGATIVE TILT ALONG WITH A
DIGGING JET.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY:
THE ECMWF/GEM APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE AND
SHOWS THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN WYOMING ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE FORCING FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL ALL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT WHERE THE JET ENERGY FOCUSES AT. ALL OF THESE
SOLUTIONS DUE BRING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND SPREADING SOUTH ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME...SINCE THERE IS LIMITED FRONTOGENISIS...BUT THERE IS
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH THE SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
FOR A SHORT TIME PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE AREA AND BEFORE 18Z IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.
THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BY TUESDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE SYNOPTIC LIFT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER JET MOVING OUT OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY:
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. NOT EXPECTING A BIG WARM UP AT THIS TIME...BUT
IF THIS SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT A LITTLE SOONER THINGS MAY WARM UP A
BIT QUICKER. FOR NOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS WHICH COULD SPELL 50S FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH 40S TO THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 457 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
LATEST FOG IMAGERY WAS SHOWING DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY FROM SCOTTSBLUFF SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SIDNEY.
MICROPHYSICS FROM THE VIIRS IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF
A WELL DEFINED BAND OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG STRETCHING FROM DIA TO
ALLIANCE TERMINAL. CURRENTLY...ALLIANCE IS RECEIVING SOME FOG AS WELL.
SURFACE FLOW IS FAIRLY LIGHT AT SCOTTSBLUFF WHICH IS A GOOD
INDICATION THAT A FAIRLY GOOD INVERSION IS TAKING SHAPE.
MEANWHILE...SIDNEY HAS SOMEWHAT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH
SHOULD HELP ERODE THE FOG BY AROUND 15Z OR SO. THE LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING THE FOG ERODING AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL. NOT REAL
CONFIDENT ABOUT SCOTTSBLUFF ERODING THAT SOON...BUT IF THE SUN CAN
PENETRATE THE STRATUS DECK IT MAY BE ABLE TO ERODE BY MID MORNING.
AFTER THE FOG ERODES WE SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014
DRY...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LESS WIND
IN THE PANHANDLE. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD 60 DEGREE READINGS AND A FEW 70S LIKELY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S. FURTHER WEST...HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL COINCIDE
WITH HUMIDITIES REMAINING 25 PERCENT OR HIGHER. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1217 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE REGION TODAY. A BRIEF MIX OF SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 40S IN EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA. COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
DIFFICULT INTRICACIES WRT NEAR TERM FORECAST. 00 UTC NAM12 APPEARS
DEFICIENT IN ANALYSIS/PROG OF MAX T/TW ALOFT PER LAPS SNDGS/PLAN
VIEW COMPARO AND CATCHUP TREND OF MORE RECENT RUC13 RUNS. PERHAPS
ATTRIBUTABLE TO OVERALL STRENGTH OF UPSTREAM MID TROPOSPHERIC JETLET
AND COHERENT/SYMBIOTIC MELD OF SUCCINCT SRN STREAM EJECTION INTO
MOUTH OF OH RIVER AND LOW AMPLITUDE NRN WAVE ACRS WI/IA DESCENDING
SEWD INTO REGION. LEADING 5H HFC IN 40-50M/12 HR RANGE RESULTANT
DEEPENING OF STRONGLY POS TILLTED 925-8H TROF AXIS FM SRN ONT INTO
NRN IL...PROVIDING INCRSD WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INADVOF AND WELL LEFT
OF SFC FNTL POSITION THIS AM. TRACK OF SHORTWAVE AND FGEN FOCUS
FAVOR HIEST POPS GNRLY EITHER SIDE OF TOLL ROAD. PTYPE OBVIOUSLY A
CONCERN...THOUGH INITIAL PTYPE SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID INTO MID AM WITH
SUFCNT DEPTH OF WARM TW...AS WAS SEEN WITH LEAD MID LVL MSTR AXIS
NOW INTO NWRN OH. SLIGHT CONCERN FOR POCKETS OF FZG RAIN ACRS FAR
NWRN CWA WHERE SFC TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FZG ATTM...BUT WITH MAJORITY
OF MESONET SITES THERE AND UPSTREAM ABOVE FZG WITH SMALL T/TD
SPREADS WL HOLD FOR LIQUID DOMINANT. TRACK OF SRN STREAM DCVA INTO
SRN CWA AND KILX HYDROCLASSIFICATION WITH SOME GRAUPEL WILL RELEGATE
CHC SLEET MAINLY TO ALONG/SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. GRADUAL N/S COLLAPSE OF
THERMAL PROFILES TO BRING CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW...SAVE FOR FAR SERN
CWA WHERE NEAR SFC TEMPS LKLY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST PARTIAL MELT WITH
CHCS FOR MIXED RA/SN INTO AFTN. SLIGHT LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
AS CORE OF 925MB THERMAL TROF SETTLES ACRS CWA ATOP STRONG PLAINS
SFC HIGH TO BECOMES SPRAWLED FM SRN PLAINS NEWD TOWARD WRN LK ERIE
BY 12 UTC SUN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM WITH WARMER AIR TRYING TO WORK BACK
INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS +6 C...LOW
PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH MAY SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...LIMITING POTENTIAL HEATING. FULL
MIXING POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS WELL WITH AT BEST 925 MB WHERE
COLD POCKET WILL REMAIN. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DECENT GRADIENT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH ALL AREAS CLIMBING ABOUT FREEZING BUT VARYING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S SOUTH. ADDED SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING THERMAL PROFILES ALL POINT TOWARDS A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AS TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE SW STATES.
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WANES QUICKLY STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DETAILS ON POTENTIAL
PHASING OF NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
SEVERAL RUNS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF AND SHOWS A
FURTHER SOUTH...LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. WITH IT NO LONGER BEING IN
THE MINORITY FOR THE STRONGER SYSTEM...BEST COURSE OF ACTION WOULD
BE TO LOWER POPS (AS ALLBLEND DOES). HOWEVER...SINCE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO BE ADEQUATELY SAMPLED YET AND MORE FLUCTUATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...CONSISTENCY IS WARRANTED WITH NO CHANGES TO POPS. TEMPS
WILL COOL OFF BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S DUE TO CLOUD COVER/START
OF BRIEF SHOT OF CAA WEDS. MODELS BEGIN TO WITH GFS INITIALLY FASTER
WITH RETURN OF WARMER AIR BUT ECMWF PICKS UP THE PACE WITH BOTH
MODELS SHOWING ABOVE ZERO 850 MB TEMPS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND 3 TO 5
C TEMPS FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS IN THE 40S AND LIKELY SOME 50S BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES TO SEND THE ROLLER COASTER BACK DOWN THE TRACK. THURS-SAT
PERIOD
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
-DZSN AND IFR/LOW MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH FRONTAL WAVE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTN AT SBN AND MID/LATE AFTN AT FWA.
SIGNIFICANT DRYING/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
AND DEPARTING ELEVATED FRONT WILL SUPPORT IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT MVFR
STRATUS MAY LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED IN TAFS AS 925 MB
RIDGE AXIS DOESN`T WORK THROUGH UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ALSO COULD
SEE BR VIS RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH SFC RIDGE
BUILDING/CLEARING SKIES/LINGERING BL MOISTURE WITHIN THINNING
INVERSION...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES LOOKS TO BE WEST OF FWA/SBN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1027 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOWED A BAND OF SLEET JUST SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE WICHITA AREA...EXTENDING FROM THE FLINT HILLS OF BUTLER
COUNTY INTO SUMNER AND COWLEY COUNTIES. THE RUC AND LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT MIXED WINTRY PRECIP OF SLEET
AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH AND
EAST OF GREATER WICHITA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE EXPANDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. PRECIP WILL LIKELY
WANE BEFORE ADVISORY EXPIRATION AND IT MAY BE CANCELLED BY THE
TIME THE NEW ROUTINE FORECAST IS ISSUED AT MID-AFTERNOON. DEPSPITE
TEMPS AROUND FREEZING...THE INTENSITY OF SLEET AND PERHAPS SOME
SNOW MAY ALLOW FOR AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION IN THE ADVISORY
AREAS.
KED
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
A TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS ALREADY CAUSED PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SNOW AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND ON THE FLIP SIDE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT JUST
SOUTH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
AFTER A TRICKY FORECAST TODAY...A WARM UP WILL ENSUE THROUGH
MONDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS
RELATIVELY LOW. THE NAM AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL TOTALS...BUT THERE ARE
TWO BANDS OF SNOW...ONE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE SECOND ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE. THE BAND OVER CENTRAL KANSAS IS THE
FIRST TO BE CALLED INTO QUESTION...AS THE GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH OF
THIS DEVELOPING CURRENTLY...I.E. BEFORE 12Z/MARCH 8TH AND THAT
HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE RUSSELL TO SALINE COUNTY AREA.
THUS...STRONGLY QUESTION THAT SOLUTION. THE SECOND AREA IS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. STILL THINK THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATION TOTALS
WILL NEAR ONE INCH BEFORE MELTING. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT ADVISORY
ALONE FOR HARPER AND KINGMAN COUNTIES...BUT THINK THE HIGHEST
TOTALS WILL BE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. TEMPS TODAY WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S AND EVEN LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KANSAS...SO ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS SHOULD MELT FAIRLY QUICKLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND IN THE 70S BY MONDAY.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
THE TIME PERIOD OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED IS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. COMMON THEMES AMONG THE
GUIDANCE DESPITE SOME DESCREPANCES ARE 1. THE TIMING AND 2. THE
STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE DESCREPANCES EXIST WITH
REGARD TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE
GFS AND NAM KEEP THE SYSTEM MAINLY DRY WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO KEEP IT FAIRLY WET. HAVE GONE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIPITATION IS LOW. REGARDLESS A POTENT COLD
FRONT WITH VERY STRONG AND COLD NORTH WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT TAKE TO MUCH OF A HIT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST 6 TO
12 HOURS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER NM TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...
SOME MVFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KICT/KHUT AND EVENTUALLY KCNU. ONLY EXPECTING THE SNOW TO LAST
ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS...AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING AND SYSTEM
TREKS RAPIDLY TO THE EAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
AS THIS SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EAST...EXPECT VFR CIGS TO RETURN TO
MOST LOCATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
ACTUALLY BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
KETCHAM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE LOW TODAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AND
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 38 25 63 35 / 60 10 0 0
HUTCHINSON 39 26 65 36 / 30 0 0 0
NEWTON 39 25 62 37 / 30 10 0 0
ELDORADO 37 24 63 37 / 60 10 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 37 24 62 34 / 90 10 0 0
RUSSELL 45 28 68 37 / 30 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 43 27 65 36 / 30 0 0 0
SALINA 42 26 66 38 / 30 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 40 25 64 37 / 30 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 38 24 64 34 / 90 30 0 0
CHANUTE 38 23 64 35 / 80 10 0 0
IOLA 38 23 63 35 / 80 10 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 38 24 65 36 / 90 20 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ069-
070-082-091>094-098.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
322 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION.
CHANCES OVERALL REMAIN LOW AND NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WITH THIS ISSUANCE. SUNDAY NIGHT ONE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS SOME
MOISTENING OF THE DGZ...AND LIFT FROM THE WAVE HERE IN SW LOWER MI.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...I WILL FEATURE LOW POPS FOR THE
REGION NORTH OF A HART TO MOUNT PLEASANT LINE. FURTHER SOUTH...AT
THIS POINT LITTLE OR NO LIFT AROUND TO SUPPORT ADDING POPS.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR MONDAY NIGHT FOR POSSIBLY ADDING
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST. NAM AND HIGH RES EURO KEEP IT
DRY...BUT THE GFS IS SHOWING THE DGZ BECOMING MOIST. THIS IS
RELATED TO MID LEVEL FGEN WITH IS STRONGER WITH THE GFS. I HELD
OFF ON MENTIONING PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE GFS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING...DEWPOINTS ARE ELEVATED
COMPARED TO FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT WE MAY SEE
SOME FOG/STRATUS TRYING TO DEVELOP VERY LATE. NAM AND HRRR MODELS
ARE SHOWING THIS. I ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
IT STILL APPEARS THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...LEAVING SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE PCPN COULD START TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-96 ALONG A REGION OF FGEN. THEN THE PCPN SHOULD EXPAND AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH. THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD
OCCUR...WITH MAINLY SNOW FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. BEING
THE NORTHERN FRINGE SHOULD GIVE THE AREA MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED FOR I-96...UP TO TWO INCHES OVER THE FAR
SE CWA...TOWARD JXN.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM GOES BY THE REST OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE
QUIET. A CLIPPER SYSTEM GOES BY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...BUT THE
BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH...SO IT MAY GO BY DRY.
AFTER A NEAR NORMAL START TO TEMPS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
40...WE WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVE BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU. TEMPS
SHOULD BE BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER...THEN COOLER
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
MUCH OF THE REGION CONTINUED TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AS OF 17Z
TODAY...WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF VFR. HOWEVER DRIER AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES WERE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. SO EXPECT A GENERAL LIFTING AND CLEARING OF THE
MVFR CEILINGS IN MOST AREAS BY 22Z. THE VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH 18Z SUN.
NORTH WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 10 KTS...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
SUNSET. THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE SUN
MORNING...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LAKE TO 10-15 KTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014
NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS SEEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES IS PREDICTED FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL MELTING. TEMPERATURES DO COOL
DOWN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL SLOWLY DOWN OR
STOP ANY MELTING. TEMPERATURES THEN TRY TO MODERATE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE SNOWPACK WILL ONLY SLOWLY RELEASE SOME
OF ITS WATER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH LIMITED RUNOFF WATER LEVELS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STABLE THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1224 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
CLOUDS ARE STILL CREEPING SLOWLY TO THE EAST BUT SOME HOLES ARE
ALSO SHOWING UP. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF SOME CLOUDS MAKING IT TO
THE EAST BUT STILL THINK THEY WILL THIN OUT OR DISSIPATE IN SOME
AREAS. TEMPS ARE RISING NICELY AND WILL HAVE TO INCREASE HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING...AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE CENTER WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO IA LATER TODAY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH LATEST LOOPS SHOW SOME BREAKING UP AS
THE LEADING EDGE MOVES UNDER THE SFC HIGH. RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE CLOUDS SO WILL
FOLLOW THAT AND KEEP CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE WEST FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOUTH WINDS AND
WARMER AIR MOVING IN WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S TODAY.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TO PICK UP OVER THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BUT THINK
WITH MIXING THAT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL MUCH...MAINLY INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
WITH 850MB TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA GETTING CLOSE TO 10 C. WITH
SOME SUN AND NOT MUCH SNOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...TEMPS
COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING IN
OUR NORTHEAST FOR THIS SHORTWAVE ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN FURTHER NORTH. MONDAY SHOULD BE WARM FOR MOST OF THE DAY
ALTHOUGH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION TRIES TO SLIP IN FROM THE NORTH.
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL
KEEP HIGHS MONDAY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR NOW. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP
IN THE 20S FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITHIN THIS
NORTHERN STREAM BRANCH...THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
NORTH...KEEPING THE AREA PRIMARILY DRY. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A PERIOD
OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE
STILL. WITH THE SFC HIGH PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST...THE COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD BE BRIEF...WITH LOW-LEVEL WARMING BEGINNING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...TEMPS COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE TOO COOL ON
WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE ANOTHER SFC LOW PASSING
TO THE NORTH WITH FAVORABLE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE TIMING IS MORE UNCERTAIN AT
THIS RANGE...CURRENT MODELS WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY WARMER THAN
INDICATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF PRECIP MAY
BRUSH NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOMEWHAT FOR
FRIDAY BUT REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014
AREA OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION WILL BE
PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS
TRENDING TO GRADUALLY THIN CLOUD COVER HOWEVER NOT SEEING
INDICATIONS AS OF YET. NORTHEAST FA TO INCLUDE BJI MAY MISS THESE
CLOUDS WITH THE SOUTHERN FA LIKELY TO BE IN THE CLOUDS LONGEST. WE
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER