Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/07/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
152 PM PST WED MAR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN MAINLY TO THE SIERRA
AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ON
THURSDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK STORM MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THIS FIRST
STORM TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
IN THE SIERRA, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS
COLD FRONT AND UPPER JET APPROACH. RAIN MAY COME DOWN HEAVY AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE CREST. WITH NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
SOUNDINGS BELOW 700MB - SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH MOST OF
TONIGHT, ABOVE 8000-8500 FEET, LEADING TO SNOW ONLY AT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS. AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 6000-7000 FT RANGE BUT PRECIP IS WINDING DOWN
BY THEN. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY WAVE HELPING REGENERATE
SHOWERS ALONG THE SIERRA NORTH OF MARKLEEVILLE THURSDAY, WITH SOME
LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6500 FT.
WHILE WE EXPECT SHADOWING IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA WITH LIMITED
OBVIOUS FORCING FOR SPILLOVER, THE RECENT HRRR RUNS AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT ECMWF SHOW SOME OCCURRING BETWEEN 3-9Z. WE`RE SIDING
WITH THE MORE SHADOWED SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW, BUT I JUST WANTED TO
NOTE THIS SPILLOVER IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY AND WORTH KEEPING AN
EYE ON.
PERHAPS THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH THIS STORM IS WIND IN THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA. RECENT GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING WINDS
INCREASING TONIGHT AS MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW NEARS 50 KNOTS. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS TONIGHT INTO THE 50-60
MPH RANGE FROM SURPRISE VALLEY TO RENO/MINDEN THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY. BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
ONLY MEDIUM AS PREDICTABILITY OF THESE DOWNSLOPE EVENTS IS
NORMALLY TRICKY AT BEST. EVEN JUST SUBTLE CHANGES IN LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND/OR WIND DIRECTION CAN ALTER THE OUTCOME. BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY, GOOD MIXING AND A SOLID PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
YIELD WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WILL EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY FROM
SURPRISE VALLEY-RENO/MINDEN THROUGH TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
LAKE WIND ADVISORIES WILL ALSO BE POSTED FOR TAHOE/PYRAMID.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. FRIDAY/SATURDAY LOOK QUIET. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL
COOL INTO THE 50S (SEASONABLE) BUT THEN WARM INTO THE 60S SATURDAY
AS RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST WE`VE SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK - WITH
UPPER 20S IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS IN THE SIERRA
VALLEYS. CS
.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH SIERRA SNOWFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NEXT
WEEK. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DRAWING
A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY BUT
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PRECIPITATION ONSET. MAIN CHANGES TO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO DECREASE POPS SUNDAY AND INCREASE
POPS MONDAY TO REFLECT THE DELAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAHOE BASIN INTO
LASSEN COUNTY. THIS LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM SYSTEM WITH SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 8500 FEET SUNDAY FALLING TO 7500 ON MONDAY AS A JET
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS
WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPILL OVER INTO WESTERN NEVADA DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES. STILL SOME MODEST
DISCREPANCIES IN RESOLVING THE SHORTWAVE`S PROGRESSION AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND PUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SHOWERS DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH LOWER FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
AGREE ON A DRIER PERIOD THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT STILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES BEGINNING TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE CUTTING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WHILE THE EC BUILDS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. HAVE
SIDED TOWARDS THE EC AS SEVERAL GEFS MEMBERS KEEP THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AND HAVE KEEP US DRY IN THE FORECAST AS A
RESULT. OVERALL, LOOKING FOR MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA AND BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TUESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT. FUENTES
&&
.AVIATION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS LIKELY
FOR THE SIERRA AS WELL. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS IS
MEDIUM TO HIGH.
FOR RNO/CXP - S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS. DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AT RNO IS
POSSIBLE, 30% CHANCE, WHICH COULD BRING GUSTS ABOVE 40 KTS AND
ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS AT TIMES BETWEEN 4Z-8Z TONIGHT. LLWS AND
TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TONIGHT ON APPROACH/DEPARTURE ROUTES WITH
SLIDE MOUNTAIN (10KFT MSL) FORECAST WINDS OF 50 KTS AND GUSTS TO
75 KTS. THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A SOLID GRADIENT WIND DAY WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS 30-35 KTS. WINDS FORECAST TO SWITCH FROM S/SW TO
W/NW AFTER 18Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN. NO CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED FROM PRECIPITATION AS THE LEE OF SIERRA SHOULD LARGELY BE
SHADOWED THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF SOME SPILLOVER
SHOWERS BETWEEN 4-8Z.
FOR TRK/TVL - WHILE S/SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES, MAIN ISSUE
IS PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS, VSBY, AND MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION
DUE TO RAIN AFTER 3Z TONIGHT. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH
TONIGHT, ABOVE 8000 FT MSL, LEADING TO RAIN AT TRK/TVL. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z/THURSDAY AS STORM IS WINDING
DOWN. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE TURBULENCE AND LLWS IN THE
VICINITY OF BOTH TRK/TVL TONIGHT.
FOR MMH - TERMINAL IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS INCOMING STORM
THOUGH GUSTY W/SW WINDS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
TURBULENCE AND LLWS LIKELY. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
12-18Z/THURSDAY BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION IS A GIVEN THOUGH.
CS
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PYRAMID
LAKE IN NVZ004.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY
NVZ003-005.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY CAZ070.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
105 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014
HIGH RES MODELS...INCLUDING THE RAP AND 3KM HRRR...ARE SHIFTING
THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SNOW TO THE SANGRES AND WETS THIS MORNING.
THIS TREND MATCHES UP WITH THE RECENT OBS TRENDS...AND GUSTY
NE WINDS NO W BEING OBSERVED AT THE WFO. WILL ISSUE A SHORT FUSE
ADVISORY FOR THE WETS AND SANGRES THROUGH SIX AM THIS MORNING.
HEAVIER BANDS SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE SE BY THEN. COULD SEE
RATES OF UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR OF HEAVY WET SNOW...AND TOTALS
OF THREE TO SIX INCHES LOOK REASONABLE. FOR THE SANGRES...THE
GREATER TOTALS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF LA VETA PASS.
FOR THE NRN ADVISORIES...WILL STAY THE COURSE ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS AT THIS POINT THAT THESE ZONES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GIVEN THE TIMING WITH THE MORNING COMMUTE
COULD STILL SEE SOME IMPACT WITH SLUSHY ROADS THIS MORNING. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014
...QUICK ROUND OF SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A
SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH AMPLE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING SHOWERS...WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES...ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO AT THIS TIME.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
OF SAID WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE STATE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY DYNAMIC WITH BEST UVV
ASSOCIATED WITH LF QUAD OF JET TRANSLATING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO
AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE TO THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN
03Z-06Z WHICH CONTINUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS THROUGH
12Z...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH IN ITS WAKE.
WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH UVV WITH PASSING
JET...ALL MODELS HAVE PEGGED NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TELLER AND EL PASO
COUNTIES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM 06Z
TO 12Z...AND HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES 81...82
AND 84 WITH BURSTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. THERE LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO OVERCOME THE NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE ACROSS SOUTHERN
EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES AND HAVE KEPT LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE FAR SE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE
MTS AND RATON MESA WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
FURTHER WEST...SHOULD SEE A QUICK SHOT OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH BEST ACCUMS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS.
THINGS WIND DOWN QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND HAVE KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS THROUGH THE FAR SE PLAINS THROUGH 15Z.
POPS DIMINISHING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING THERE AFTER
WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM. HIGHS LOOK TO BE SOME 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...MOST NOTICEABLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014
A BRIEF RESPITE IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURS AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRANSLATES OVERHEAD...THEN FLATTENS OUT ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. LEE TROFFING DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS DUE TO ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS. THEN THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH H7 TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE +2 TO +4C RANGE. LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE BREEZY WEST WINDS KICKING UP IN THE MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/WEST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TOO SPOTTY FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
AT THIS POINT. FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL ALSO SEE A TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE LEE TROF
DEEPENS TO THE WEST. HUMIDITY LEVELS OUT THAT WAY APPEAR TO STAY
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MTN AREAS WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING
WINDS AS NEXT TROF APPROACHES.
CHANGES START TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THEN MOVES ACROSS CO DURING THE
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT TIME FRAME. VAST DIFFERENCES EXIST IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH NAM THE WEAKEST AND MOST PROGRESSIVE
WITH AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS IS
MORE AMPLIFIED BUT SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROF STILL BACK OVER UT BY
00Z SAT WHICH CUTS OFF ACROSS NW NM BY 12Z SAT...THEN SLOWLY DROPS
THROUGH CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE REGION BY 12Z SUN. ECMWF
IS FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CO/NW NM BY 00Z SAT...THEN
TAKES THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS NRN NM INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE BY 12Z
SAT WITH LINGERING ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. THE
WHOLE SYSTEM THEN DRAGS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CO BY SATURDAY EVENING.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT EVEN FROM THE CONSENSUS OF
THESE RUNS...THE BOTTOM LINE COMES TO SNOW RAMPING UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. NAM SOLN IS THE OBVIOUS OUTLIER...AND THE WPC PREFERRED SOLN
IS THE FASTER MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE AS THE PAST SEVERAL SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN
QUITE PROGRESSIVE. STILL THIS ONE STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING
SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE NE PROVIDING FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS
FOR THE NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF TELLER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY...THEN FOR THE WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
CONCEPTUALLY LAPSE RATES COULD BE FAIRLY STEEP AND COULD BRING HEAVY
WET SPRING-LIKE SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN GRIDS FOR THESE PERIODS. TOO SOON TO GO OUT
WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS THESE ARE HIGHLY LIKELY TO CHANGE. BUT
ALL EYES WILL BE ON THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM POISED TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WED. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS LATTER
STORM...BUT WILL CARRY ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR TUESDAY. -KT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014
AT KCOS...SNOW BREAKING OUT ACROSS NRN EL PASO COUNTY AND ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE AS OF 0530Z...AND EXPECT IT TO REACH KCOS BETWEEN
06-07Z. TERMINAL WILL THEN SEE A PERIOD OF IFR VIS IN SNOW FROM
07-10Z...WITH PERHAPS A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS. PRECIP SHIFTS RAPIDLY SOUTH
AFTER 10Z...AND EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS 10-12Z...THEN
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.
AT KPUB...EXPECT A FEW -SHRA/-SHSN AFTER 07Z WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP. SHOWERS END
11Z-13Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
AT KALS...BEST CHANCE OF -SHSN AND BRIEF MVFR FROM 06-08Z...THEN
CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 10Z ONWARD.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ081-082-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ072>075-079-080.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1111 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
MOVING OUT TO SEA FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE: CONCERNED ABOUT THE PCPN SEEN ON RADAR AND
OBSERVED MD SHORE VCNTY OXB. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SNOW - THEORETICALLY
LACK OF ICE NUCLEI BECAUSE I DONT THINK THE 00Z/5 WALLOPS ISLAND
SOUNDING WOULD PERMIT SEEDING FROM THE -36C 03Z CIRRUS OVERHEAD
WHICH LOOKS TO ME IS ABOUT AT 25000FT WITH FAR TOO MUCH DRY AIR
FOR ICE NUCLEI SEEDING BETWEEN THAT CIRRUS LAYER AND THE SATURATED
PORTION OF THE 00Z/5 WALLOPS SOUNDING BELOW BELOW 7800 FT WHERE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL IS SEEN WITH MOST OF THE SOUNDING
BETWEEN -1 AND -4C.
IF THIS AREA OF PCPN DOES OVERSPREAD SE SUSSEX COUNTY DE AS PER THE
00Z/5 NAM (NOT THE 0Z RAP OR HRRR)...IT COULD TURN TO LIGHT OR
VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS - SLEET. WE`VE POSTED A FB REQ
FOR INFORMATION. HWO UPDATED.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH IT IS
STARTING TO PULL FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
COMBINED WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD MAKE FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO SLIDE OVER THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY. IN ADDITION,
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED, DESPITE NEARLY CALM WINDS SINCE SUNSET. THUS HAVE RAISED
THE LOWS IN THIS AREA SLIGHTLY.
THOSE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD START CLEARING AFTER 08Z WHICH
MIGHT PERMIT CONSIDERABLE LATE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A RATHER WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAX SHEARING OUT
WELL TO OUR NORTH WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING
UPSTREAM WILL KEEP INCREASING HEIGHTS FILTERING INTO THE REGION
TOMORROW, THOUGH NOTHING DRASTIC. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT DOES SAG THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE...COULD BE
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AS WE HEAD BACK INTO THE DEEPER COLD
AIR.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY
WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL BE MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING TOO MUCH UNDER A MODIFYING AIRMASS WITH THE RIDGING IN
PLACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: THE MAIN FEATURE IN THIS
PERIOD WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS TRACK WILL INCREASE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS SOMEWHAT BUT KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FAIRLY LIMITED. IF SOME PRECIPITATION WERE TO OCCUR ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF THIS SYSTEM RAIN OR A RAIN/WET SNOW MIX WOULD
FALL. IT IS EASY TO REMEMBER SEVERAL PAST SYSTEMS THAT HAVE SLOWLY
BACKED UP TOWARD THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
FIRMLY OUT TO SEA AFTER MEANDERING ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE FOR
MOST OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE SPREAD TO THE
NORTH IN BOTH THE 09Z SREF AND THE LATEST 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
SO A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER THE DELMARVA AND SOUTH
JERSEY. STAYED RELATIVITY CLOSE TO MEX/MET GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD
SINCE IT WILL WITHIN THE RANGE OF THE GUIDANCE CLUSTER.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY MEANING A
NICE DAY OVERALL. AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TEMPERATURES
COULD REACH THE LOW AND MID 50`S ON SATURDAY FROM PHL SOUTH. WENT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMER EC TWO METER AND EC STAT GUIDANCE, WHICH
IS ALSO MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS SET OF GUIDANCE. THIS IS BASED ON
WARMING MID LEVELS IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE, IT IS MARCH
AFTER ALL! BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY WITH ONLY
SOME SCATTERED RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MIXED ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE
CMC AND ECMWF ARE DRIER OR ABOUT THE SAME IN TERMS OF ONLY SHOWING
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WAS LEFT IN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING IN WITH THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY AND MORE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE KNOCKED BACK INTO THE
40`S AFTER STARTING NEAR FREEZING. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: LOOKS MAINLY DRY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN BRINGING IN SHOTS OF COLD AIR AT TIMES
IN THIS PERIOD. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF THIS WHILE THE
12Z GFS HAS A SHOT OF COLDER AIR ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF AT 00Z HAD A
SEVEN STANDARD DEVIATION SPREAD WITH TEMPERATURES AMONG IT`S
MEMBERS BY TUESDAY, SO THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
PERIOD. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC IN THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS A MIDDLE
GROUND WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. ALSO OF NOTE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD
ANOTHER LARGE STORM SYSTEM COUPLED WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
ANOTHER WINTRY SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE LATEST RUN HAS BACKED OFF OF
THIS AND IS MUCH WARMER, PLEASE EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN HEARING
ABOUT STORM RUMORS ON TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS
IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE 00Z MODELS HAVING A SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE REGION. DID ADJUST TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON
TUESDAY BASED ON THE 12Z ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 10000 FT SHOULD CLEAR AFTER 08Z. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO START, BUT INCREASE
A BIT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST..LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NORTH
WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. A DECK OF MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY ON WESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA MAY ARRIVE FROM THE NE VCNTY KACY AROUND 06Z/THURSDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH ACROSS SE CANADA.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH CLOUDY SKIES NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FOR KMIV, KACY AND KILG TO THE SOUTH WITH SOME MVFR
RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS.
PERHAPS SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS OVERNIGHT THOUGH THERE COULD BE A STRAY
WINTRY MIXED SHOWER OR TWO OFF OF DELAWARE.
AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NE AS AS ALREADY STRONG AND STILL STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE. NE WINDS SHOULD
GUST 25-30 KT AT TIMES AFTER 04Z/6.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A COASTAL
STORM MOVES NEARBY. WINDS GUSTS OVER 25 KTS EXPECTED AND SEAS
GREATER THAN 5 FT ON THE OCEAN. IF THE STORM MOVES CLOSER OR DEEPENS
MORE...THERE MAY BE SOME GALE GUSTS OVER THE SRN OCEAN WATERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... SEAS ARE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA ATTM.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1110P
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1110P
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/HEAVENER/O`HARA 1110P
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
143 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHRAS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM FLL TO PBI TERMINALS...WHICH
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.
OTHERWISE..MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ON THURSDAY...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SSW AHEAD AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014/
UPDATE...
CHANGES ARE NOT PLANNED FOR THE MORNING UPDATES WITH WEATHER
PARAMETERS COMING INTO PLACE AT THIS TIME. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING
SHOWS A MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS REMAINING DRY ABOVE
A SUBSIDENCE CAP STILL PERSISTING AT AROUND 7K. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIS INVERSION LAYER ERODING BY 18Z AND
PWAT INCREASING ABOVE 1.25 INCHES. WHILE THIS IS NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE, IT COULD STILL INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE EAST COAST METRO REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, MAINLY FROM AROUND 19Z TO SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE ONE OR TWO
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FOG IS SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR AND COULD AFFECT KAPF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN TAFS...SO REMOVED MENTION FROM EARLIER
TAF SET. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A VCSH MENTION ALONG THE EAST COAST
SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TODAY. AN EXPECTED SURFACE LOW IS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
TOMORROW. AS IT DOES, IT WILL INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
LAYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTH FLORIDA. PLUS, THERE IS
A 500MB TROUGH DIGGING AND DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
WILL CAUSE THE SFC LOW TO DEEPEN. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF. THE NAM IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
GFS. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS TO MAKE LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL THE MODELS HAVE THE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND.
NOW, AS FOR HOW THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. FOR TODAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW, WILL WORK TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE. CUMULUS FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY.
SOME OF THE CU IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND MAY
INTERACT WITH A WEAK CONVERGENCE AREA THAT LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE IN
THE LAKE REGION. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS, HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS IN PALM BEACH
COUNTY AND THE LAKE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NAM MODEL SOUNDING FOR PBI SHOWS CAPE AROUND 1700 JOULES, 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KTS, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS, A
FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 12300 FT, LOW 0-3KM STORM REL HELICITY, A
VEERING WINDS PROFILE, PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
WITHIN 2 SD OF NORMAL, AND STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10KTS. THE
700-500MB LAPSE RATE IS AROUND 5.3. THE NAM SOUNDING IS ALSO
SHOWING A STRONG CAP AT AROUND 700 MB THAT COULD HINDER ANY
DEVELOPMENT AT ALL. THE MODELS DO SHOW A 90-100KT JET AT 250MB
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THEY DO DISAGREE WITH THE EXACT
POSITION. HOWEVER, THIS JET COULD GIVE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO
OVERCOME THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON. THE CAP DOES ERODE BY THIS
EVENING, BUT IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO MAXIMIZE CONVECTION TODAY.
ALSO, WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
AS CURRENT PARAMETERS DO NOT FAVOR ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.
GOING FORWARD TO TOMORROW AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES. CAPE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 JOULES. THE
700-500MB LAPSE RATE DOES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 5.7. THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS AROUND 12000FT, AND 500MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -11C. THE WIND
PROFILE IS SLIGHTLY VEERING WITH HEIGHT. 0-3KM HELICITY WILL ONLY
BE AROUND 69. THE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30KTS AND
THE 0-6KM AROUND 45KTS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 250MB JET, BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE, KEEPING THE AREA
OUT OF THE ENTRANCE OR EXIT REGIONS. THIS MAY LIMIT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ON THURSDAY. ALSO, THERE MAY BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL HAMPER INSOLATION. SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR
SO FLORIDA? BASICALLY IT GIVES THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE GIVEN PARAMETERS, SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG, WITH POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE DUE TO
WIND AND/OR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, BY THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, CONVECTION MAY WANE AS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REDUCE THE
DESTABILIZATION. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE LOW
WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH UNTIL IT EMERGES OVER
THE ATLANTIC, WHICH PUTS THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING, PROBABLY MEANS MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH THE FRONT BRINGING A
LINE OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY EVEN HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OF
COURSE, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW AND WHAT AFFECT CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE ON DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ANY CHANGES IN TIMING AND/OR CONDITIONS COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A COOLER AIR MASS TO BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR. ALSO, THE DEW POINTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR, IF NOT AT THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURE, WHICH COULD BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND PASSES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR KAPF DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR AND JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS
SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL MODELS KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...SO KEPT
ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
MARINE...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING SOUTHERLY WIND TO SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
IT WILL ALSO CAUSE THE SEAS TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE, BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY, THEN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THEY WILL ALSO INCREASE, CAUSING SEAS TO BUILD
EVEN FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT
IN THE GULF WATERS AND 5 TO 7 FT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE GULF STREAM OFF PALM BEACH. SEAS WILL PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 69 82 70 80 / 20 60 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 83 72 81 / 20 50 50 20
MIAMI 71 84 71 81 / 20 40 50 20
NAPLES 67 80 67 75 / 20 60 40 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...13/SI
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1004 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
CHANGES ARE NOT PLANNED FOR THE MORNING UPDATES WITH WEATHER
PARAMETERS COMING INTO PLACE AT THIS TIME. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING
SHOWS A MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS REMAINING DRY ABOVE
A SUBSIDENCE CAP STILL PERSISTING AT AROUND 7K. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIS INVERSION LAYER ERODING BY 18Z AND
PWAT INCREASING ABOVE 1.25 INCHES. WHILE THIS IS NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE, IT COULD STILL INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE EAST COAST METRO REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, MAINLY FROM AROUND 19Z TO SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE ONE OR TWO
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FOG IS SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR AND COULD AFFECT KAPF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN TAFS...SO REMOVED MENTION FROM EARLIER
TAF SET. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A VCSH MENTION ALONG THE EAST COAST
SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TODAY. AN EXPECTED SURFACE LOW IS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
TOMORROW. AS IT DOES, IT WILL INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
LAYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTH FLORIDA. PLUS, THERE IS
A 500MB TROUGH DIGGING AND DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
WILL CAUSE THE SFC LOW TO DEEPEN. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF. THE NAM IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
GFS. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS TO MAKE LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL THE MODELS HAVE THE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND.
NOW, AS FOR HOW THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. FOR TODAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW, WILL WORK TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE. CUMULUS FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY.
SOME OF THE CU IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND MAY
INTERACT WITH A WEAK CONVERGENCE AREA THAT LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE IN
THE LAKE REGION. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS, HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS IN PALM BEACH
COUNTY AND THE LAKE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NAM MODEL SOUNDING FOR PBI SHOWS CAPE AROUND 1700 JOULES, 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KTS, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS, A
FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 12300 FT, LOW 0-3KM STORM REL HELICITY, A
VEERING WINDS PROFILE, PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
WITHIN 2 SD OF NORMAL, AND STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10KTS. THE
700-500MB LAPSE RATE IS AROUND 5.3. THE NAM SOUNDING IS ALSO
SHOWING A STRONG CAP AT AROUND 700 MB THAT COULD HINDER ANY
DEVELOPMENT AT ALL. THE MODELS DO SHOW A 90-100KT JET AT 250MB
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THEY DO DISAGREE WITH THE EXACT
POSITION. HOWEVER, THIS JET COULD GIVE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO
OVERCOME THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON. THE CAP DOES ERODE BY THIS
EVENING, BUT IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO MAXIMIZE CONVECTION TODAY.
ALSO, WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
AS CURRENT PARAMETERS DO NOT FAVOR ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.
GOING FORWARD TO TOMORROW AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES. CAPE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 JOULES. THE
700-500MB LAPSE RATE DOES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 5.7. THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS AROUND 12000FT, AND 500MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -11C. THE WIND
PROFILE IS SLIGHTLY VEERING WITH HEIGHT. 0-3KM HELICITY WILL ONLY
BE AROUND 69. THE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30KTS AND
THE 0-6KM AROUND 45KTS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 250MB JET, BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE, KEEPING THE AREA
OUT OF THE ENTRANCE OR EXIT REGIONS. THIS MAY LIMIT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ON THURSDAY. ALSO, THERE MAY BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL HAMPER INSOLATION. SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR
SO FLORIDA? BASICALLY IT GIVES THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE GIVEN PARAMETERS, SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG, WITH POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE DUE TO
WIND AND/OR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, BY THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, CONVECTION MAY WANE AS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REDUCE THE
DESTABILIZATION. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE LOW
WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH UNTIL IT EMERGES OVER
THE ATLANTIC, WHICH PUTS THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING, PROBABLY MEANS MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH THE FRONT BRINGING A
LINE OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY EVEN HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OF
COURSE, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW AND WHAT AFFECT CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE ON DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ANY CHANGES IN TIMING AND/OR CONDITIONS COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A COOLER AIR MASS TO BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR. ALSO, THE DEW POINTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR, IF NOT AT THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURE, WHICH COULD BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND PASSES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR KAPF DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR AND JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS
SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL MODELS KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...SO KEPT
ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
MARINE...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING SOUTHERLY WIND TO SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
IT WILL ALSO CAUSE THE SEAS TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE, BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY, THEN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THEY WILL ALSO INCREASE, CAUSING SEAS TO BUILD
EVEN FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT
IN THE GULF WATERS AND 5 TO 7 FT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE GULF STREAM OFF PALM BEACH. SEAS WILL PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 69 82 70 / 30 20 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 71 83 72 / 30 20 50 50
MIAMI 83 71 84 71 / 20 20 40 50
NAPLES 81 67 80 67 / 20 20 60 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
750 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FOG IS SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR AND COULD AFFECT KAPF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN TAFS...SO REMOVED MENTION FROM EARLIER
TAF SET. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A VCSH MENTION ALONG THE EAST COAST
SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TODAY. AN EXPECTED SURFACE LOW IS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
TOMORROW. AS IT DOES, IT WILL INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
LAYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTH FLORIDA. PLUS, THERE IS
A 500MB TROUGH DIGGING AND DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
WILL CAUSE THE SFC LOW TO DEEPEN. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF. THE NAM IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
GFS. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS TO MAKE LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL THE MODELS HAVE THE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND.
NOW, AS FOR HOW THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. FOR TODAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW, WILL WORK TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE. CUMULUS FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY.
SOME OF THE CU IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND MAY
INTERACT WITH A WEAK CONVERGENCE AREA THAT LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE IN
THE LAKE REGION. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS, HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS IN PALM BEACH
COUNTY AND THE LAKE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NAM MODEL SOUNDING FOR PBI SHOWS CAPE AROUND 1700 JOULES, 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KTS, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS, A
FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 12300 FT, LOW 0-3KM STORM REL HELICITY, A
VEERING WINDS PROFILE, PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
WITHIN 2 SD OF NORMAL, AND STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10KTS. THE
700-500MB LAPSE RATE IS AROUND 5.3. THE NAM SOUNDING IS ALSO
SHOWING A STRONG CAP AT AROUND 700 MB THAT COULD HINDER ANY
DEVELOPMENT AT ALL. THE MODELS DO SHOW A 90-100KT JET AT 250MB
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THEY DO DISAGREE WITH THE EXACT
POSITION. HOWEVER, THIS JET COULD GIVE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO
OVERCOME THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON. THE CAP DOES ERODE BY THIS
EVENING, BUT IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO MAXIMIZE CONVECTION TODAY.
ALSO, WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
AS CURRENT PARAMETERS DO NOT FAVOR ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.
GOING FORWARD TO TOMORROW AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES. CAPE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 JOULES. THE
700-500MB LAPSE RATE DOES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 5.7. THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS AROUND 12000FT, AND 500MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -11C. THE WIND
PROFILE IS SLIGHTLY VEERING WITH HEIGHT. 0-3KM HELICITY WILL ONLY
BE AROUND 69. THE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30KTS AND
THE 0-6KM AROUND 45KTS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 250MB JET, BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE, KEEPING THE AREA
OUT OF THE ENTRANCE OR EXIT REGIONS. THIS MAY LIMIT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ON THURSDAY. ALSO, THERE MAY BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL HAMPER INSOLATION. SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR
SO FLORIDA? BASICALLY IT GIVES THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE GIVEN PARAMETERS, SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG, WITH POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE DUE TO
WIND AND/OR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, BY THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, CONVECTION MAY WANE AS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REDUCE THE
DESTABILIZATION. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE LOW
WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH UNTIL IT EMERGES OVER
THE ATLANTIC, WHICH PUTS THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING, PROBABLY MEANS MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH THE FRONT BRINGING A
LINE OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY EVEN HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OF
COURSE, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW AND WHAT AFFECT CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE ON DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ANY CHANGES IN TIMING AND/OR CONDITIONS COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A COOLER AIR MASS TO BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR. ALSO, THE DEW POINTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR, IF NOT AT THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURE, WHICH COULD BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND PASSES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR KAPF DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR AND JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS
SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL MODELS KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...SO KEPT
ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
MARINE...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING SOUTHERLY WIND TO SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
IT WILL ALSO CAUSE THE SEAS TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE, BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY, THEN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THEY WILL ALSO INCREASE, CAUSING SEAS TO BUILD
EVEN FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT
IN THE GULF WATERS AND 5 TO 7 FT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE GULF STREAM OFF PALM BEACH. SEAS WILL PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 69 82 70 / 30 20 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 71 83 72 / 30 20 50 50
MIAMI 83 71 84 71 / 20 20 40 50
NAPLES 81 67 80 67 / 20 20 60 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...13/SI
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
414 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TODAY. AN EXPECTED SURFACE LOW IS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
TOMORROW. AS IT DOES, IT WILL INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
LAYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTH FLORIDA. PLUS, THERE IS
A 500MB TROUGH DIGGING AND DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
WILL CAUSE THE SFC LOW TO DEEPEN. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF. THE NAM IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
GFS. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS TO MAKE LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL THE MODELS HAVE THE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND.
NOW, AS FOR HOW THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. FOR TODAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW, WILL WORK TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE. CUMULUS FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY.
SOME OF THE CU IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND MAY
INTERACT WITH A WEAK CONVERGENCE AREA THAT LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE IN
THE LAKE REGION. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS, HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS IN PALM BEACH
COUNTY AND THE LAKE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NAM MODEL SOUNDING FOR PBI SHOWS CAPE AROUND 1700 JOULES, 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KTS, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS, A
FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 12300 FT, LOW 0-3KM STORM REL HELICITY, A
VEERING WINDS PROFILE, PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
WITHIN 2 SD OF NORMAL, AND STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10KTS. THE
700-500MB LAPSE RATE IS AROUND 5.3. THE NAM SOUNDING IS ALSO
SHOWING A STRONG CAP AT AROUND 700 MB THAT COULD HINDER ANY
DEVELOPMENT AT ALL. THE MODELS DO SHOW A 90-100KT JET AT 250MB
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THEY DO DISAGREE WITH THE EXACT
POSITION. HOWEVER, THIS JET COULD GIVE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO
OVERCOME THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON. THE CAP DOES ERODE BY THIS
EVENING, BUT IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO MAXIMIZE CONVECTION TODAY.
ALSO, WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
AS CURRENT PARAMETERS DO NOT FAVOR ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.
GOING FORWARD TO TOMORROW AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES. CAPE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 JOULES. THE
700-500MB LAPSE RATE DOES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 5.7. THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS AROUND 12000FT, AND 500MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -11C. THE WIND
PROFILE IS SLIGHTLY VEERING WITH HEIGHT. 0-3KM HELICITY WILL ONLY
BE AROUND 69. THE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30KTS AND
THE 0-6KM AROUND 45KTS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 250MB JET, BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE, KEEPING THE AREA
OUT OF THE ENTRANCE OR EXIT REGIONS. THIS MAY LIMIT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ON THURSDAY. ALSO, THERE MAY BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL HAMPER INSOLATION. SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR
SO FLORIDA? BASICALLY IT GIVES THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE GIVEN PARAMETERS, SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG, WITH POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE DUE TO
WIND AND/OR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, BY THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, CONVECTION MAY WANE AS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REDUCE THE
DESTABILIZATION. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE LOW
WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH UNTIL IT EMERGES OVER
THE ATLANTIC, WHICH PUTS THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING, PROBABLY MEANS MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH THE FRONT BRINGING A
LINE OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY EVEN HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OF
COURSE, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW AND WHAT AFFECT CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE ON DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ANY CHANGES IN TIMING AND/OR CONDITIONS COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A COOLER AIR MASS TO BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR. ALSO, THE DEW POINTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR, IF NOT AT THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURE, WHICH COULD BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND PASSES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR KAPF DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR AND JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS
SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL MODELS KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...SO KEPT
ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING SOUTHERLY WIND TO SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
IT WILL ALSO CAUSE THE SEAS TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE, BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY, THEN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THEY WILL ALSO INCREASE, CAUSING SEAS TO BUILD
EVEN FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT
IN THE GULF WATERS AND 5 TO 7 FT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE GULF STREAM OFF PALM BEACH. SEAS WILL PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 69 82 70 / 30 20 60 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 71 83 72 / 20 20 50 40
MIAMI 83 71 84 71 / 20 20 40 40
NAPLES 81 67 80 67 / 20 20 60 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...13/SI
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1256 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR KAPF DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR AND JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS
SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL MODELS KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...SO KEPT
ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014/
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TO THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 138 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN UNEVENTFUL WITH ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE MID LATITUDES BECOMING INCREASINGLY
PROGRESSIVE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS
PATTERN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO LOOKING VERY SIMILAR THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG LATE
TONIGHT OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A NEAR
CALM WIND. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS IN DEPICTING A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE THERE IS
SOME DISCREPANCY ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AS TO THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
OF THE TROUGH. THE NAM DEEPENS THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW MUCH
FASTER AND THEREFORE HAS LESS OF AN IMPACT TO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE
MAIN DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE ECMWF AND GFS
HOWEVER DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW MUCH LATER AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
DEEPEN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH BEFORE CLOSING OFF. THIS WOULD HAVE A
GREATER INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL WEATHER WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH
OF THESE MODELS SHOW MOSTLY UNIFORM DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WELL IN
ADVANCE OF THE MAIN IMPACTS WHICH WOULD BE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERITY OF
THE STORMS ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE CERTAINLY
CANNOT BE RULED OUT JUST YET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CAPE
INCREASING TO 1300-1500 J/KG BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS DECENT
ENERGY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -10
TO -11 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -4 TO -5. HOWEVER,
THE NAM KEEPS THE PWAT AT LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES WHICH WOULD GREATLY
LIMIT THE INSTABILITY WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PWAT IN THE
RANGE OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES. SO ALL IN ALL, IT REMAINS A WAIT AND SEE
APPROACH WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME AND PUTTING
MORE WEIGHT ON THE GFS AND ECMWF.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING
BACK TO THE NORTH. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THEY
BOTH DIFFER AS TO THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS
MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ALSO, THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER AND STRONGER
THAN THAT OF THE CASE OF THE 00Z RUN. SO AGAIN, STAY TUNED.
MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY BUILDING WIND AND SEAS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 68 82 65 / 10 20 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 70 82 67 / 10 20 40 40
MIAMI 84 70 82 67 / 10 20 30 40
NAPLES 82 66 77 64 / 10 20 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1036 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE FRONT. THE LAST IN THE SERIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL DIRECT
COLD AIR INTO OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND
SOUTH BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SO DO FORECAST SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAINS TO FALL APART
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM DUE TO THE WEDGE PATTERN...SO
HAVE UNDERCUT NUMBERS ONCE AGAIN.
TONIGHT...MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
REMAINING OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...GENERALLY KEEPING THE CWA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COLD ONCE AGAIN...BUT MOST
SITES WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THOUGH. GOOD NEWS
IS THAT WITH THE PRECIP FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH...THERE SHOULD
NOT BE ANY KIND OF PRECIP ISSUES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE FORECASTED CATEGORICAL POPS. WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORT LIKELY POPS. USED AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THE QPF FORECAST. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. THE NAM AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BELOW FREEZING LAYER AROUND 2000
FEET IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND THE WARM NOSE ABOVE THE COLD
LAYER APPEARS QUITE WARM. KEPT THE FORECAST CONSISTENT AND
FORECASTED ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGING EAST OF
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE SURFACE WEDGE
ALSO BREAKING DURING THAT TIME. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH THE POP TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE THREAT OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z...THEN IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR HINTS THAT THE CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR...WHILE
LAMP GUIDANCE IS LESS CONVINCING. AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE
OGB/AGS/DNL CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
CAE/CUB REMAINING VFR. BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THINK CIGS AT ALL
TAF SITES WILL BE VFR AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOWING A TEMPORARY BREAK IN LOW CIGS
BY THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES...SO HAVE RAISED CIGS TO VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 01Z THURSDAY. CIGS WILL LOWER AFTER THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD...GOING MVFR AT OGB/AGS/DNL...AND REMAINING VFR AT
CAE/CUB... AS MOISTURE AGAIN INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
625 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE FRONT. THE LAST IN THE SERIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL DIRECT
COLD AIR INTO OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. AIR TEMPERATURES WERE HOVERING
AROUND 32 IN THE COUNTIES OF LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD SO AREAS
OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED BECAUSE OF LIGHT AMOUNTS AND MARGINAL AIR TEMPERATURES
PLUS 530 AM DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION ROAD TEMPERATURES WERE
AROUND 35.
THE MODELS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND
SOUTH BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
RAIN BUT EXPECT THIS WOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THE HRRR AND SPC
WRF SUPPORT GREATER RAIN COVERAGE IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM TODAY BECAUSE OF THE
WEDGE PATTERN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NAM SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE GFS INDICATES DEEPER MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART BY
12Z THURSDAY. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE POP
FORECAST. BOTH MODELS SHOW MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE FORECASTED CATEGORICAL POPS. WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORT LIKELY POPS. USED AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THE QPF FORECAST. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM
AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BELOW FREEZING LAYER AROUND
2000 FEET IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART. WE BELIEVE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE WILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND THE WARM NOSE ABOVE
THE COLD LAYER APPEARS QUITE WARM. KEPT THE FORECAST CONSISTENT
AND FORECASTED ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGING EAST OF
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE SURFACE WEDGE
ALSO BREAKING DURING THAT TIME. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH THE POP TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TODAY BRINGING THE CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN. THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING FOR CAE/CUB...AND BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OGB/AGS/DNL. VFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE
AS TO WHETHER OR NOT CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR
HINTS THAT THE CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR...WHILE LAMP GUIDANCE IS LESS
CONVINCING. AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE OGB/AGS/DNL CIGS LOWERING TO
MVFR LATER THIS MORNING OR BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CAE/CUB
REMAINING VFR. BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THINK CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES
WILL BE VFR AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOWING A TEMPORARY BREAK IN LOW CIGS BY
THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES...SO HAVE RAISED CIGS TO VFR AT ALL
TAF SITES BY 01Z THURSDAY. CIGS WILL LOWER AFTER THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...GOING MVFR AT OGB/AGS/DNL...AND REMAINING VFR AT CAE/CUB...
AS MOISTURE AGAIN INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
449 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE FRONT. THE LAST IN THE SERIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL DIRECT
COLD AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE HOVERING AROUND
32 IN THE COUNTIES OF LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD AND AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN MAY BE OCCURRING. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED BECAUSE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES.
THE MODELS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND
SOUTH BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
RAIN BUT EXPECT THIS WOULD BE CONFINED TO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF
SUPPORT GREATER RAIN COVERAGE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM TODAY BECAUSE OF THE
WEDGE PATTERN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NAM SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE GFS INDICATES DEEPER MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART BY
12Z THURSDAY. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE POP
FORECAST. BOTH MODELS SHOW MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE FORECASTED CATEGORICAL POPS. WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORT LIKELY POPS. USED AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THE QPF FORECAST. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM
AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BELOW FREEZING LAYER AROUND
2000 FEET IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART. WE BELIEVE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE WILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND THE WARM NOSE ABOVE
THE COLD LAYER APPEARS QUITE WARM. KEPT THE FORECAST CONSISTENT
AND FORECASTED ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGING EAST OF
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE SURFACE WEDGE
ALSO BREAKING DURING THAT TIME. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH THE POP ON TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY
BRINGING THE CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN. VFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MVFR BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH
GFS AND NAM SHOWING A TEMPORARY BREAK IN LOW CIGS BY THIS EVENING
FOR ALL TAF SITES...SO HAVE RAISED CIGS TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY
01Z THURSDAY. CIGS WILL LOWER AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
MOISTURE AGAIN INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
953 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES AFFECTING THE CWA TODAY. ONE IS
MOVING EAST THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE AND IS HELPING TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WHILE A SECOND
IS MOVING EAST THROUGH NRN NV...AND IS HELPING TO DRIVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CWA. HRRR RUNS INDICATE THAT
WAVES OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ALSO...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT PUT
IN A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
JUST ONE OR TWO STRIKES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OREGON LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO INCREASE POPS IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY AND IN SURROUNDING AREAS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR
NOW...WITH THE WATCH BEGINNING AT 11 AM MST TODAY AND GOING
THROUGH 5 AM MST FRIDAY. WE STILL EXPECT OVER AN INCH OF RAIN AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR
2 INCHES.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS INCREASING THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FOR LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS. SNOW LEVELS INCREASING FROM 5000 FEET
THIS MORNING TO 7500 FEET BY 06Z TONIGHT. EXPECT NUMEROUS MVFR RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP TO 40
KTS AT 10K FT MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW AND THE FLOOD WATCH...BOIFFABOI...FOR
MORE DETAILS.
A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICS WILL SHIFT
INTO OUR AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
TODAY...MAINLY IN BAKER COUNTY EAST TO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN AND
BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER AS THE MOISTURE
WILL RIDE OVER A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WHICH STRETCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO TAKE AIM ON THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN...THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL RISE DURING THIS TIME...FROM 5500-6500 FEET THIS
MORNING TO 7500-8500 FEET TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...SENDING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. THE FRONT IS STILL TIMED TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST OREGON THURSDAY MORNING AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL BE WINDY AFTER THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH
IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN TODAY WITH SOME
VALLEY HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S. TEMPS WILL BE LOWER /MAINLY IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT/ ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
DRYING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS SPREADS INTO EASTERN
OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY PRECIPITATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD
WITH RAIN IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5500
FEET MSL. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MILD...AVERAGING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IDZ011-013-033.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1149 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
256 PM CST
SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE FIRST
ARRIVING TONIGHT. THE SECOND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK. A BRIEF
WARM UP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...TEMPS REBOUND MONDAY WITH DARE
I SAY NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED?
REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TRICKY FORECAST PERIOD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENT THAT THE
ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE SNOW AT SOME POINT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW AND FOR HOW
LONG.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND IT
WILL SHIFT EAST AND FILL TONIGHT. ALOFT THE SHORTWAVE THAT FORCED
SNOW THIS MORNING IS TO OUR EAST WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH
TEXAS. THE NEXT TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES AND IT WILL
PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
A LARGE HIGH IS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND IT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE FEATURES
A DEEP LAYER OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT COINCIDES WITH A SATURATED
LAYER. HOWEVER...THE SATURATED LAYER IS WARMER THAN THE IDEAL
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...BUT IT IS BELOW 0C. SNOW IS EXPECTED...BUT
IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE FORCING INDICATES. ALSO
PUSHED THE TIMING OF THE SNOW BACK BY A FEW HOURS. THE NAM12 LOOKS
TOO FAST WHILE THE RAP IS TOO SLOW. AS SUCH USED OUR LOCAL WRF MODEL
FOR TIMING...AND AMOUNTS AS THE WRF SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE PRECIP. EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF I-88 AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
SOUTH OF I-88. THE 4 INCH AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED ABOUT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING 2 TO 3 INCHES. NOTE THESE VALUES ARE LESS THAN THE
MAJORITY OF COBB OUTPUT...AND THIS IS DUE TO THE CONCERNS ABOUT SNOW
GROWTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF FORCING...DECIDED TO
SLIGHTLY RAISE SNOWFALL TOTALS.
SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN IL...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3AM. THE BAND WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
MID MORNING...AND MAY SHIFT QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. THE
LOCAL WRF INDICATED THE BAND WOULD SHIFT SOUTH QUICKLY...BUT DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT FAST. SNOW IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. FORCING WEAKENS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SO EXPECTING THE
SNOW SOUTH OF I-80 TO BE SLOW AND STEADY.
IN ADDITION TO THE BAND OF SNOW...MAY SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW RIGHT NOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST.
DELTA T/S ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THE THICK ICE COVER WILL LIMIT
MIXING. BUT INCLUDED A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN PERIODS OF FLURRIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE JUMPED WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WEST.
HOWEVER THINKING WE WILL STILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. SO ENDED UP WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS...AND TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS ALONG THE LAKE. TEMPS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TOMORROW WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL TO THE MID TEENS OVER NW INDIANA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WHILE
ITS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 30. WINDS TURN SOUTH
BEHIND THE HIGH AND WAA KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING AND POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 40S!
A SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH ITS SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL.
HAVE IT STARTING AS RAIN AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS THE COLD
AIR FUNNELS BACK IN. 850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -3C AND THE
MAIN POINT IS THE COLD AIR REALLY IS NOT THAT COLD AND IT WILL NOT
LAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S.
EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
AND THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLDER AIR SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WARM UP. SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY HELP TEMPS BECOME NORMAL IF
NOT ABOVE NORMAL. RAISED ALLBLEND TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO AND
STILL MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS FEATURES
PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SNOW DEVELOPING DURG THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND LASTING INTO LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT LEAST PERIODIC IFR/POSSIBLE BRIEF LIFR
EXPECTED.
* ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDING LATE MORNING...SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS SHOW THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW SAGGING SOUTH INTO
NRN IL IS HAVING A HARD TIME OVERCOMING THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.
WHILE HAVE MAINTAINED THE CURRENT TIMING WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH
THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SNOW INTO THE AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT THE TIMING OF SNOW ONSET MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED
BACK AN HOUR OR SO. SO...WHILE TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER...THE
OVERALL TREND APPEARS ON TRACK. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THERE SHOULD
BE A HEAVIER PERIOD OF SNOWFALL FOR A COUPLE HOURS WITH IFR VSBY
LIKELY AND BRIEF LIFR POSSIBLE. ACCUMS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE
LOOK LIKELY. MAIN ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING...HOWEVER SOME OCNL VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY
AS MOIST NE FLOW CONTINUES OFF THE LAKE. PARAMETERS APPEAR
UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW...IN
PARTICULAR...A NEARLY ENTIRELY ICE COVERED LAKE WILL LIMIT ANY
KIND OF MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE LAKE SURFACE. TYPICALLY THIS TYPE
OF NELY FLOW OFF OF AN OPEN LAKE MICHIGAN WOULD BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AS WELL AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...THE LACK OF THIS MOISTURE FLUX FROM AN ICE COVERED LAKE
WILL NOT ONLY REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW...IT
WILL ALSO LIMIT THE DEGREE TO WHICH CIGS MIGHT LOWER. SO...WILL
MAINTAIN THE MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE IMPROVING
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW START TIME AND INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE SNOW ENDING TIME WED MORNING AND LINGERING -SN OR
FLURRY CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS TRENDS WEDNESDAY.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VIS TRENDS WITH THE SNOW...THOUGH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF -SN.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
224 PM CST
THE MAIN STORY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IS LIKELY THE ICE COVERAGE WHICH
IS NOW NEAR 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE LAKE...THE HIGHEST SO FAR THIS
SEASON. WE WILL START TO SEE SOME DAYS WITH TEMPERATURE PUSHING THE
FREEZING MARK DURING THE AFTERNOONS...INCLUDING FRIDAY AND A FEW
DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A SLOW MELT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH
WESTERLY WINDS TURNING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A RIDGE AXIS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS
TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY...AND THEN SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT DOES
TIGHTEN SOME ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESHENING UP INTO THE 15 TO 25
KT RANGE...PERHAPS A FEW 30 KT GUSTS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
450 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ACRS NRN IA TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
WEAK/DISJOINTED WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE/LIFT PROFILES WITH
DOWNSTREAM EXTENT TODAY AS PRIMARY DIGGING EMPHASIS IN LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES RELEGATED TO WEST TX. DOWNSTREAM DERISION ASSURED
WITH AXIS OF 200MB PLUS 925MB CPD THROUGH FAR SERN FA AS WELL AS
SUCCINCT NEGATIVE PRESSURE ADVECTION WITHIN I285-290K LYR /ASSOCD
WITH STRONG JAMES BAY/CNTL ONT ANTICYCLONE/ TO DROP SSEWD THROUGH
SRN LWR MI INTO ERN FA THIS AFTN. FOR NWRN QUARTER OF CWA
HOWEVER... PRIMARILY A HIGH POP/RELATIVELY LOW QPF EVENT EXPECTED
WITH INITIAL AND EFFECTIVE SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES ALREADY
UNDERWAY INTO FAR SWRN LWR MI WITH MARKED DROP TO VSBYS TO NEAR
2SM AT SNOW ONSET. SOME HINT OF UPPER LEVEL JET DIVERGENCE
ENHANCEMENT MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL ACRS WRN AND INTERIOR
INDIANA COUNTIES AS 3H JET CORE STRENGTHENS TO 115-120 KTS BY 21
UTC OVR LONDON ONT. MINOR DROP TO TEMPS TO TODAY GIVEN LIGHT
SHALLOW CAA. AND SLIGHT LWRG TO TONIGHT MIN TEMPS IN ALL BUT SERN
CWA WITH LOSS OF CLOUD COVER AND PARTIAL DECOUPLING PSBL BY
DAYBREAK AS RIDGELINE SLIDES FARTHER SWD THROUGH GRTLKS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AS A DOMINANT UPSTREAM RIDGE PERSISTS.
HOWEVER...A TEMPORARY BREAKDOWN IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE AND REACHES
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TEMPORARY BREAKDOWN WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO
BECOME MORE HIGH ZONAL OVER THE REST OF THE COUNTRY WITH HIGHS
TOPPING 40 DEGREES...AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50 DEGREES ON MONDAY
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FELT MORE COMFORTABLE
WITH THE GFS AND GEM WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF CONTINUITY AS OPPOSED TO
THE ECMWF WHICH HAS TOTALLY ABANDONED THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL MIDWEST
SYSTEM ADVERTISED BY A NUMBER OF EARLIER RUNS. ALSO LIKE THE GFS
WITH COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH A LARGE
ANTICYCLONE SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. ALSO...THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES HAVE
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS COOL PATTERN AND FOR THE MOST PART
HAVE VERIFIED VERY WELL THIS PAST WINTER. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE 8
DAY 500 MB ANALOGS SHOW A LARGE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE GEM ENSEMBLES DO SHOW SOME MODERATION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT THEN KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL LATER NEXT
WEEK. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY WHEN SOME WEST COAST
SHORT WAVE ENERGY PHASES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPPING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA. THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM SHOW A WEAK SYSTEM WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE. GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW. ALSO LEFT
A WANING CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY GIVEN VIRTUALLY NO FORCING OVER THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014
CONTD PRIOR TREND WRT DELAY ONSET OF SNOWFALL PER UPSTREAM
TRENDS/LATEST RAP GUIDANCE. POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS GREATEST
ACROSS NWRN IN/KSBN AIRFIELD AND TARGET REDUCTIONS THERE MID/LATE
AM HOURS. ANTICIPATED GRADUAL SYSTEM DECAY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
PRECLUDES IFR/ALT FUELING REQUIREMENTS AT KFWA AMID OVERALL LOW
PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
100 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP OUT OF MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL
TRACK ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND WASH OUT
ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH CAN
BE EXPECTED WEST OF US 31 WITH DECREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EAST.
SOME AREAS IN NORTHWEST OHIO MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY SNOW AT ALL. HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH POPS IN THIS AREA FROM THE UPPER 40S DOWN TO
THE LOW 30S TO INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY. FRONTOGENESIS FORCING WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 21Z WITH SNOWFALL COMING TO AN END BY
00Z. CONSALL GUIDANCE CAME IN 7 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. NOT CONVINCED THAT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS...SO WENT WITH BCALLBLEND AS A GOOD
COMPROMISE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
GENERALLY TRANQUIL PD XPCD.
PERSISTENT PNA PATTN ACRS NOAM LOOKS TO RELAX ITS GRIP MID-LT PD AS
ERN CANADA TROUGHING/WRN US RIDGING BOTH DEAMPLIFY FOR A TIME.
RESULTING HIGH ZONAL FLW WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE MODERATION
COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING W/ACTIVE SRN STREAM FLW LOOKING MORE AND MORE
DOMINANT W/TIME. HWVR WK SYS/S EMBEDDED WITHIN NRN STREAM FLW STILL
POTENTIALLY PROBLEMATIC INCLUDING NEXT SW PROGGED TO SKIRT THE NRN
LAKES/SE CANADA ON SAT. REGARDLESS NWD MSTR RTN SHLD PROVE DIFFICULT
PER UNPHASED SPLIT FLW REGIME DOMINATING OUT WEST. THUS XPC WK SYS
ON SAT TO BE SIMILAR TO WED SHRT TERM SYS. AS A RESULT HAVE
DISMISSED ALLBLEND SOLUTION IN FVR OF DERIVED CLUSTERED CONSENSUS
MEAN AND NARROWED POP MENTION TO JUST DY5 (SAT). TEMPS CONTD BLO
NORMAL THROUGH THE PD BUT XPCD TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW TO
UPPER 30S MID PD AND MODERATE FURTHER INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
BY DY8.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014
CONTD PRIOR TREND WRT DELAY ONSET OF SNOWFALL PER UPSTREAM
TRENDS/LATEST RAP GUIDANCE. POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS GREATEST
ACROSS NWRN IN/KSBN AIRFIELD AND TARGET REDUCTIONS THERE MID/LATE
AM HOURS. ANTICIPATED GRADUAL SYSTEM DECAY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
PRECLUDES IFR/ALT FUELING REQUIREMENTS AT KFWA AMID OVERALL LOW
PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1158 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
ALTHOUGH ELONGATED AND RATHER NARROW BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCED SNOWS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THE FORCING
DECREASES SOME...THE PROCESS IS SHIFTING SOUTH AND WILL MAINTAIN
ENOUGH FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES TO CONTINUE SOUTH OF
I80 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE AN ADDITIONAL HALF
INCH TO AN INCH BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM JUST SOUTH OF I-80...TO A
FAIRFIELD IA TO MONMOUTH IL LINE. HALF INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF THAT
AREA THOUGH EARLY EVENING. BAND SHOULD REALLY FALL APART AFTER 5
PM CST IN THE SOUTHERN CWA IF THE LATEST HIRES SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT. HAVE RAISED POPS SOUTH OF I80 THOUGH 00Z AND MAY HAVE TO
ADJUST FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..12..
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MO. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS
NEARLY ZONAL OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. AT 00Z S/WS EMBEDDED IN THE
ZONAL FLOW WERE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE HAD SPREAD SNOW INTO THE
NORTHERN CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WAVE...PATCHY SNOW WAS OCCURRING FROM NEBRASKA
INTO WESTERN IA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
FGEN FORCING AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS S/W HAS SET UP THIS MORNING
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHERN IL. IT APPEARS THE BANDED SNOW
WILL STAY OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED OVER NW IL TO AROUND 3 INCHES FOR THE MAX.
WITH THE BANDED NATURE OF THE SNOW THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE HIT
AND MISS SO NOT ALL AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WILL SEE THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS. TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO THE ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE
AND DUBUQUE COUNTIES WHICH ARE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BETTER
FORCING. THE ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED SOON FOR BUCHANAN COUNTY
WHERE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER AN INCH.
MODELS SAG THE FGEN FORCING SOUTH THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN ROCKIES S/W. THEY COUPLE THE FGEN WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA
SUPPORTING A NARROW EAST-WEST BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING NEAR I80
EARLY THIS MORNING AND PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNTS WITH THIS BAND ARE IN
QUESTION AT THIS POINT WITH THE MESO SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING AN
AXIS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG I80 CORRIDOR. THE HRRR PROGS ARE IN
LINE WITH THE HIGHER QPF RAP13 BUT THE HRRR/S LATEST RUN IS
OVERDOING THE AREA AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS
QPF/SNOWFALL OVER THE SAME AREA. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
LOW QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS WHICH YIELD A SWATH OF AROUND 1 INCH NEAR I80
FROM THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
TONIGHT SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH TEENS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT
259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A
PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL AND SOMEWHAT SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW KEEPS ARCTIC
AIR BOTTLED UP WELL TO THE NORTH. A MINOR SETBACK WILL BE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A CANADIAN HIGH...FOLLOWING A FRIDAY/S
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION
KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA BELOW FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND RETURNING
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ON A
PERIOD OF LIFT BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WHEN LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH OVER SE CANADA AND DEVELOPING FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WILL PRODUCE A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD WARM AT
LEAST UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SW...WHILE A SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST MAY LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S.
FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE NW
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING WITH POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. THIS TIMING SHOULD ALLOW THE PREFRONTAL SW
WINDS TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE FAR SW
POTENTIALLY TOUCHING 50. THE GFS...WITH ITS HIGH MOISTURE BIAS IN
THE LOW LEVELS...WOULD SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH DOES NOT LOOK REALISTIC. WILL INSTEAD KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO POST FRONTAL...OVER THE FAR WEST AND
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW DURING THE DAY...THEN SNOW
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA UNDER AN AXIS OF
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT THAT DROPS INTO CENTRAL IL
AND SOUTHERN MO. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND MAGNITUDE OF FORCING
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN WESTERN CANADA DROPS
SOUTHEAST PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING...AND FOR NOW...THE MODEL
CONSENSUS REFLECTS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AND HOLDS ONTO
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING...AS
SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE COLDER AIRMASS AND SNOW COVER WILL
RETURN HIGHS TO THE 20S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 30S...WITH LOWS AS
MENTIONED POSSIBLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THERE REMAINS LOW CONSISTENCY IN THE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE FEATURES AMONG MODELS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A WARMING TREND LOOKS LIKELY FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING HIGH
SUNDAY. CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY...THEN
REACHING THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND POTENTIALLY MUCH WARMER...
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION BASED ON POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIKELY TO AFFECT THE
REGION SOMEWHERE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
SNOW BANDS TO MAKE FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT MLI AND BRL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS AND LIGHTER SNOW
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80. LOWER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER FURTHER NORTH
AT DBQ AND CID THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING...ALONG WITH POCKETS
OF 3-5SM FOG OR HAZE VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES. EAST SFC WINDS OF
10-16KTS TO BACK MORE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND DECREASE. THIS
MAY ALLOW MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR LEVEL FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT IN THE
VCNTY OF ALL TERMINALS. LOW MVFR CIGS AND ANY FOG RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD LIFT BY MID THU MORNING AS SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS INCREASE TO
7-10KTS. ..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...12
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
812 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
JUST ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR FROM THE IOWA CITY AREA EAST THROUGH PRINCETON IL THROUGH
11 AM. A NARROW BAND OF FGEN FORCED SNOW HAS SET UP OVER THE AREA.
RECENT SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS HOLD THE BAND OVER THE SAME AREA MOST
OF THE MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN SMALLER INTENSE BANDS EMBEDDED IN
THE AREA OF SNOW THAT HAVE BEEN PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWS FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIME. I DON/T SEE ANY REASON WHY THIS WILL NOT CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 4 OR MORE INCHES. THE FGEN
WAS OCCURRING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN H3 JET OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE JET IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE THE SNOW TO DIMINISH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THE ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR DUBUQUE COUNTY AT 6 AM.
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF IA MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER
AN INCH.
THE BAND OF SNOW ALONG I80 CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WERE UPDATED FOR A BAND TO L TO 2 INCHES FROM ABOUT THE IOWA CITY
AREA THROUGH PRINCETON IL. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SAG
SOUTH BY MID MORNING ENDING THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT WAS ALSO RECENTLY ISSUED FOR THIS BAND OF SNOW
CONCERNING RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MO. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS
NEARLY ZONAL OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. AT 00Z S/WS EMBEDDED IN THE
ZONAL FLOW WERE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE HAD SPREAD SNOW INTO THE
NORTHERN CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WAVE...PATCHY SNOW WAS OCCURRING FROM NEBRASKA
INTO WESTERN IA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
FGEN FORCING AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS S/W HAS SET UP THIS MORNING
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHERN IL. IT APPEARS THE BANDED SNOW
WILL STAY OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED OVER NW IL TO AROUND 3 INCHES FOR THE MAX.
WITH THE BANDED NATURE OF THE SNOW THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE HIT
AND MISS SO NOT ALL AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WILL SEE THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS. TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO THE ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE
AND DUBUQUE COUNTIES WHICH ARE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BETTER
FORCING. THE ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED SOON FOR BUCHANAN COUNTY
WHERE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER AN INCH.
MODELS SAG THE FGEN FORCING SOUTH THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN ROCKIES S/W. THEY COUPLE THE FGEN WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA
SUPPORTING A NARROW EAST-WEST BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING NEAR I80
EARLY THIS MORNING AND PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNTS WITH THIS BAND ARE IN
QUESTION AT THIS POINT WITH THE MESO SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING AN
AXIS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG I80 CORRIDOR. THE HRRR PROGS ARE IN
LINE WITH THE HIGHER QPF RAP13 BUT THE HRRR/S LATEST RUN IS
OVERDOING THE AREA AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS
QPF/SNOWFALL OVER THE SAME AREA. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
LOW QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS WHICH YIELD A SWATH OF AROUND 1 INCH NEAR I80
FROM THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
TONIGHT SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH TEENS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT
259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A
PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL AND SOMEWHAT SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW KEEPS ARCTIC
AIR BOTTLED UP WELL TO THE NORTH. A MINOR SETBACK WILL BE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A CANADIAN HIGH...FOLLOWING A FRIDAY/S
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION
KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA BELOW FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND RETURNING
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ON A
PERIOD OF LIFT BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WHEN LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH OVER SE CANADA AND DEVELOPING FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WILL PRODUCE A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD WARM AT
LEAST UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SW...WHILE A SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST MAY LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S.
FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE NW
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING WITH POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. THIS TIMING SHOULD ALLOW THE PREFRONTAL SW
WINDS TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE FAR SW
POTENTIALLY TOUCHING 50. THE GFS...WITH ITS HIGH MOISTURE BIAS IN
THE LOW LEVELS...WOULD SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH DOES NOT LOOK REALISTIC. WILL INSTEAD KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO POST FRONTAL...OVER THE FAR WEST AND
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW DURING THE DAY...THEN SNOW
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA UNDER AN AXIS OF
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT THAT DROPS INTO CENTRAL IL
AND SOUTHERN MO. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND MAGNITUDE OF FORCING
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN WESTERN CANADA DROPS
SOUTHEAST PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING...AND FOR NOW...THE MODEL
CONSENSUS REFLECTS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AND HOLDS ONTO
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING...AS
SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE COLDER AIRMASS AND SNOW COVER WILL
RETURN HIGHS TO THE 20S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 30S...WITH LOWS AS
MENTIONED POSSIBLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THERE REMAINS LOW CONSISTENCY IN THE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE FEATURES AMONG MODELS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A WARMING TREND LOOKS LIKELY FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING HIGH
SUNDAY. CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY...THEN
REACHING THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND POTENTIALLY MUCH WARMER...
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION BASED ON POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIKELY TO AFFECT THE
REGION SOMEWHERE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
SNOW WAS TAPERING OFF OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST IL...BUT
REDEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. FROM THE I80
CORRIDOR SOUTH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL IFR OR
LIFR CANDIDATES WILL SPREAD SOUTH THIS MORNING. THE BAND OF SNOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL IL. THE KCID AREA IS
BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF SNOW AND SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS MOST
OF THE MORNING THEN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AFTER THE SNOW ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE HAZE OR FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING FROM THE NORTH
LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CEDAR-
JOHNSON-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
HENRY IL-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-WHITESIDE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CARROLL-
JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DLF
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
633 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THE ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR DUBUQUE COUNTY AT 6 AM.
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF IA MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER
AN INCH.
THE BAND OF SNOW ALONG I80 CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WERE UPDATED FOR A BAND TO L TO 2 INCHES FROM ABOUT THE IOWA CITY
AREA THROUGH PRINCETON IL. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SAG
SOUTH BY MID MORNING ENDING THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT WAS ALSO RECENTLY ISSUED FOR THIS BAND OF SNOW
CONCERNING RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MO. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS
NEARLY ZONAL OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. AT 00Z S/WS EMBEDDED IN THE
ZONAL FLOW WERE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE HAD SPREAD SNOW INTO THE
NORTHERN CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WAVE...PATCHY SNOW WAS OCCURRING FROM NEBRASKA
INTO WESTERN IA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
FGEN FORCING AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS S/W HAS SET UP THIS MORNING
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHERN IL. IT APPEARS THE BANDED SNOW
WILL STAY OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED OVER NW IL TO AROUND 3 INCHES FOR THE MAX.
WITH THE BANDED NATURE OF THE SNOW THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE HIT
AND MISS SO NOT ALL AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WILL SEE THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS. TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO THE ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE
AND DUBUQUE COUNTIES WHICH ARE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BETTER
FORCING. THE ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED SOON FOR BUCHANAN COUNTY
WHERE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER AN INCH.
MODELS SAG THE FGEN FORCING SOUTH THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN ROCKIES S/W. THEY COUPLE THE FGEN WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA
SUPPORTING A NARROW EAST-WEST BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING NEAR I80
EARLY THIS MORNING AND PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNTS WITH THIS BAND ARE IN
QUESTION AT THIS POINT WITH THE MESO SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING AN
AXIS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG I80 CORRIDOR. THE HRRR PROGS ARE IN
LINE WITH THE HIGHER QPF RAP13 BUT THE HRRR/S LATEST RUN IS
OVERDOING THE AREA AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS
QPF/SNOWFALL OVER THE SAME AREA. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
LOW QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS WHICH YIELD A SWATH OF AROUND 1 INCH NEAR I80
FROM THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
TONIGHT SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH TEENS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT
259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A
PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL AND SOMEWHAT SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW KEEPS ARCTIC
AIR BOTTLED UP WELL TO THE NORTH. A MINOR SETBACK WILL BE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A CANADIAN HIGH...FOLLOWING A FRIDAY/S
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION
KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA BELOW FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND RETURNING
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ON A
PERIOD OF LIFT BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WHEN LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH OVER SE CANADA AND DEVELOPING FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WILL PRODUCE A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD WARM AT
LEAST UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SW...WHILE A SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST MAY LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S.
FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE NW
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING WITH POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. THIS TIMING SHOULD ALLOW THE PREFRONTAL SW
WINDS TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE FAR SW
POTENTIALLY TOUCHING 50. THE GFS...WITH ITS HIGH MOISTURE BIAS IN
THE LOW LEVELS...WOULD SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH DOES NOT LOOK REALISTIC. WILL INSTEAD KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO POST FRONTAL...OVER THE FAR WEST AND
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW DURING THE DAY...THEN SNOW
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA UNDER AN AXIS OF
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT THAT DROPS INTO CENTRAL IL
AND SOUTHERN MO. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND MAGNITUDE OF FORCING
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN WESTERN CANADA DROPS
SOUTHEAST PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING...AND FOR NOW...THE MODEL
CONSENSUS REFLECTS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AND HOLDS ONTO
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING...AS
SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE COLDER AIRMASS AND SNOW COVER WILL
RETURN HIGHS TO THE 20S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 30S...WITH LOWS AS
MENTIONED POSSIBLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THERE REMAINS LOW CONSISTENCY IN THE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE FEATURES AMONG MODELS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A WARMING TREND LOOKS LIKELY FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING HIGH
SUNDAY. CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY...THEN
REACHING THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND POTENTIALLY MUCH WARMER...
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION BASED ON POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIKELY TO AFFECT THE
REGION SOMEWHERE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
SNOW WAS TAPERING OFF OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST IL...BUT
REDEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. FROM THE I80
CORRIDOR SOUTH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL IFR OR
LIFR CANDIDATES WILL SPREAD SOUTH THIS MORNING. THE BAND OF SNOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL IL. THE KCID AREA IS
BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF SNOW AND SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS MOST
OF THE MORNING THEN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AFTER THE SNOW ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE HAZE OR FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING FROM THE NORTH
LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CARROLL-
JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DLF
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MO. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS
NEARLY ZONAL OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. AT 00Z S/WS EMBEDDED IN THE
ZONAL FLOW WERE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE HAD SPREAD SNOW INTO THE
NORTHERN CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WAVE...PATCHY SNOW WAS OCCURRING FROM NEBRASKA
INTO WESTERN IA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
FGEN FORCING AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS S/W HAS SET UP THIS MORNING
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHERN IL. IT APPEARS THE BANDED SNOW
WILL STAY OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED OVER NW IL TO AROUND 3 INCHES FOR THE MAX.
WITH THE BANDED NATURE OF THE SNOW THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE HIT
AND MISS SO NOT ALL AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WILL SEE THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS. TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO THE ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE
AND DUBUQUE COUNTIES WHICH ARE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BETTER
FORCING. THE ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED SOON FOR BUCHANAN COUNTY
WHERE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER AN INCH.
MODELS SAG THE FGEN FORCING SOUTH THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN ROCKIES S/W. THEY COUPLE THE FGEN WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA
SUPPORTING A NARROW EAST-WEST BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING NEAR I80
EARLY THIS MORNING AND PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNTS WITH THIS BAND ARE IN
QUESTION AT THIS POINT WITH THE MESO SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING AN
AXIS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG I80 CORRIDOR. THE HRRR PROGS ARE IN
LINE WITH THE HIGHER QPF RAP13 BUT THE HRRR/S LATEST RUN IS
OVERDOING THE AREA AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS
QPF/SNOWFALL OVER THE SAME AREA. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
LOW QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS WHICH YIELD A SWATH OF AROUND 1 INCH NEAR I80
FROM THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
TONIGHT SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH TEENS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT
259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A
PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL AND SOMEWHAT SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW KEEPS ARCTIC
AIR BOTTLED UP WELL TO THE NORTH. A MINOR SETBACK WILL BE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A CANADIAN HIGH...FOLLOWING A FRIDAY/S
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION
KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA BELOW FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND RETURNING
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ON A
PERIOD OF LIFT BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WHEN LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH OVER SE CANADA AND DEVELOPING FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WILL PRODUCE A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD WARM AT
LEAST UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SW...WHILE A SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST MAY LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S.
FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE NW
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING WITH POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. THIS TIMING SHOULD ALLOW THE PREFRONTAL SW
WINDS TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE FAR SW
POTENTIALLY TOUCHING 50. THE GFS...WITH ITS HIGH MOISTURE BIAS IN
THE LOW LEVELS...WOULD SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH DOES NOT LOOK REALISTIC. WILL INSTEAD KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO POST FRONTAL...OVER THE FAR WEST AND
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW DURING THE DAY...THEN SNOW
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA UNDER AN AXIS OF
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT THAT DROPS INTO CENTRAL IL
AND SOUTHERN MO. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND MAGNITUDE OF FORCING
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN WESTERN CANADA DROPS
SOUTHEAST PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING...AND FOR NOW...THE MODEL
CONSENSUS REFLECTS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AND HOLDS ONTO
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING...AS
SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE COLDER AIRMASS AND SNOW COVER WILL
RETURN HIGHS TO THE 20S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 30S...WITH LOWS AS
MENTIONED POSSIBLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THERE REMAINS LOW CONSISTENCY IN THE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE FEATURES AMONG MODELS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A WARMING TREND LOOKS LIKELY FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING HIGH
SUNDAY. CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY...THEN
REACHING THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND POTENTIALLY MUCH WARMER...
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION BASED ON POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIKELY TO AFFECT THE
REGION SOMEWHERE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THEN...CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP AT DBQ BY 05/08Z...CID BY 05/10Z...MLI BY 05/12Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE SNOW UNTIL 05/14Z...MAINLY
AT DBQ. THEN MVFR CIGS OF 1-3K AGL WITH VSBYS 2-5 MILES AND ISOLATED
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 06/00Z. EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
DELAWARE-DUBUQUE.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CARROLL-
JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
535 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXISTS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CREATE
AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT OVER RESIDUAL
SNOWPACK. WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP AS WELL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE 4 KM WRF MODEL AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST. A
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS WHICH INDICATE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THEREFORE MIXING AS OPPOSED
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THAT WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING. WE`VE
INSERTED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT, SINCE A LARGE
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKER ON
MUCH FRIDAY MORNING THAN FOG DID THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FASTER AS WELL, REACHING AROUND 60 DEGREES SOUTH AND EAST OF
WICHITA, AND COOLER UPPER 40S OR LOW 50S FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BETWEEN FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST TO IMPACT THE AREA IS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING INITIAL A CHANCE OF RAIN, RAIN AND
SNOW BEFORE A COMPLETE PHASE CHANCE LOOKS REASONABLE EARLY SATURDAY.
THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS LOW SNOW RATIOS FOR THE ENTIRETY OF
THE PRECIPITATION EPISODE. FOLLOWING THE WAVE ON SATURDAY, A SLOW
WARMUP ON SUNDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MARKED WARMUP APPEARS
LIKELY FOR VERY EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND
WIDESPREAD 60`S ON MONDAY. FAR LESS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EXISTS AT THIS TIME WITH THE NEXT WAVE/FRONTAL PASSAGE MOST
LIKELY CENTERED AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS PRODUCES A MUCH DRIER
SOLUTION THAN THE WET ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL SURFACE WIND DOES TAPER OFF LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER STILL 20 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SO
SOMEWHAT MIXY AND EXPECTING EXTENSIVE CIRROFORM CLOUD COVER TO
INCREASE. THE OFFSET COULD BE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND LOWERING
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG. NOT HITTING IT TOO HARD IN THE TAFS YET...SHOWING MVFR VSBYS
AT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
SWITCH WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 33 58 30 40 / 0 10 50 60
HUTCHINSON 32 54 28 41 / 0 10 40 50
NEWTON 33 55 28 40 / 0 10 40 50
ELDORADO 34 58 30 40 / 0 10 50 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 34 60 32 40 / 0 10 60 60
RUSSELL 32 49 25 45 / 0 10 40 40
GREAT BEND 32 51 26 45 / 0 10 40 40
SALINA 33 50 26 44 / 0 10 40 40
MCPHERSON 32 53 27 42 / 0 10 40 40
COFFEYVILLE 31 60 35 40 / 0 10 60 60
CHANUTE 32 60 31 41 / 0 10 50 60
IOLA 33 59 31 41 / 0 10 50 50
PARSONS-KPPF 31 60 33 40 / 0 10 60 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
526 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
The dense fog across at least one half of my eastern zones
dissipated and moved east by late this morning. This fog and low
ceilings slowed down the surface heating, and thus I lowered maximum
temperatures in my eastern tier of zones for this afternoon, as I
saw ICT did also. Winds have been increasing in the post-fog
environment, especially in the west zones near the Colorado border.
Under clear skies tonight and with winds subsiding to around 10
to 11 knots, the HRRR and RUC models develop some fog in about our
eastern 1/3rd of our forecast areas tonight. After collaboration
with ICT (here, in backup mode), I have decided to put patchy fog
(not dense) in our eastern zones. I will brief the evening shift
to pass on to the mid shift to monitor the fog, for any possible
dense development. For now, the models are pointing further east
than my Stafford to Barber eastern border for any dense fog
potential. As for low temperatures, the steady southerly flow
will keep minimum temperatures up from last night. Minimums should
range from the middle 30s in the north and east sections, east of
a line from Dighton to Coldwater, and only to the lower 40s in the
Stanton County to Seward County.
Friday will start mostly clear, but become mostly cloudy by early afternoon.
There is an upper level trough approaching from the west, and for
now looks like it will delay until the Fri Nt period as far as
precip goes. A cold front will plunge south on Friday, switching
morning southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph to north at 15 to 25 mph
and gusty by early afternoon Friday. The clouds will follow the
cold front and skies should become cloudy by early afternoon also.
This will help hold down maximum temperatures. Friday should be
colder than today for most locations, with highs ranging from
around 50F in the Hays area, to the the lower to middle 60s in the
southern Meade and Ashland areas.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A few forecast concerns that need to be addressed. The first was to
tweak precipitation types Friday night. Both GFS and NAM are warmer
with the thermo profile than compared to ECMWF. From a meteorological
conceptual model, applied again the top down approach which suggests
that precip will start as rain and then transition to snow by Saturday
morning. Some drizzle is possible across the northern zones Friday evening
for a brief period before the entire profile becomes completely saturated.
Snowfall amounts look to be sub-advisory and in the 0.50-1.5" range.
Right now GFS/NAM/WRF are starting to agree on an area south of the
Arkansas river for seeing the best shot at accumulating snowfall. This
in association with better isentropic lift. Anyway, if the EC verifies,
than my maximums are too high for Saturday. This model is the outlier
compared to the GFS/NAM/GEM, so will bias towards these other solutions
for now versus the outlier.
A very nice warm up is expected Sunday and particularly Monday. Here
a downslope plume and low level warm air advection will lead to very
nice temperatures with 60s/70sF.
A cold front moves through Tuesday evening. Cold air advection lags
a bit and the EC solution continues to be the outlier. Did not stray
too much from the weighted blend solution for pops. Fixed precipitation
type as it seems dubious to get snow with sfc temperatures in the 50s.
Even the EC has model sfc temperatures in the upper 30sF so changed
the snow ptype and made more of a rain/snow event for a buffer. Of
course, synoptic and mesoscale details are very uncertain at this point
but feel it is appropriate to have a blend of precipitation types rather
than to commit to one precipitation type given the large uncertainty
in the evolution and verification of the thermo profile and lift.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Surface winds will stay up in the 10 to 15 knot range through
06-08z but should diminish late tonight as stronger winds off the
surface move east of the region. There is some potential for MVFR
visibilities to develop in the Hays area before sunrise. A cold
front will push south through central and southwest Kansas Friday
morning with gusty north winds expected behind the front. Will
carry a scattered 020-025 cloud layer during the day which could
develop into an MVFR ceiling toward the end of this taf period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 35 58 28 44 / 0 10 60 20
GCK 37 56 28 49 / 0 20 50 10
EHA 42 62 31 45 / 0 20 60 10
LBL 40 63 30 44 / 0 20 60 20
HYS 33 51 26 46 / 0 20 40 10
P28 33 60 29 43 / 0 10 60 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
220 PM CST Wed Mar 5 2014
...Update to long term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
Enhanced radar returns from the Mosaic radar loop over northeast
Colorado earlier this morning related well to an area of 700mb
frontogenesis at 06z from the the latest RAP, NAM and GFS. Each
Model move this area of frontogenesis across southwest Kansas
between 12z and 21z. In addition the model soundings today
suggested the precipitation type will be mainly snow as this band
of steadier precipitation crosses southwest Kansas. NAM and GFS
however differ slightly on timing with the GFS more progressive
than the NAM. They also differ slightly on a shallow warm layer in
the 875 to 800mb layer which if the warmer NAM is more correct
would support a chance for sleet at times. At this time will
continue to mention of mix of sleet and snow given uncertainty of
this warm layer and based on the latest RAP have trended more
towards progressive GFS on timing of the steadier precipitation.
Given the more progressive solution the precipitation will end
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Clouds will also
begin to decrease from northwest to southeast late in the day
based subsidence and drier air developing in the wake of an upper
level trough as it crosses western Kansas between 18z Wednesday
and 00z Thursday. With some breaks of sun possible by late day in
far western/west Central Kansas will trend towards the warmer
MET/MAV guidance for highs while further east favor the cooler NAM
2 meter temps. Given how progressive this system is expected today
will continue to favor snowfall amounts of 1 inch or less,
however if a band of the steadier precipitation persists longer in
one area, like what the NAM suggests between 18z and 21z, then a few
locations may have totals of up to 2 inches. Still given this snow
amounts will be below advisory criteria.
Tonight a surface ridge axis will cross south central Kansas as
surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies.
Southwest winds developing across much of western Kansas early
tonight may limit how cold temperatures will be early Thursday
morning so will continue to favor temperatures bottoming in the 20
to 25 degree range across far western and West central Kansas.
Further east, near the surface ridge axis, will lower temperatures
back to around 15 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
Thursday Night:
For Thursday evening, lee-side troughing will continue ahead of
the next fropa. Southerly winds are expected for the overnight
hours, which will keep minimums up and in the 30sF. The warmest is
expected across far southwest Kansas near Elkhart where the
strongest downslope component to the wind vector is expected.
Friday/Friday night:
The forecast becomes a bit more interesting in the wake of the
fropa Friday night and into Saturday. A broad upper level trof
will move across the region through the evening. Cold air
advection will begin by late evening. Top down/warm layer aloft
suggest that the event will start out as rain and then transition
to all snow by Saturday morning. ECMWF/GEM/GEFS are coming in lower
with snowfall amounts than previous runs. Probably attributed to
the broad/progressive nature of the trof and the lack of richer
boundary layer moisture. Still, cannot rule out a few inches or
perhaps a borderline advisory event. Highs will be in the 50s and
lows mainly in the 20s.
Saturday and beyond:
The main synoptic wave will move east with a quasi-zonal flow
becoming established by Monday. The net result is moderating
temperatures and weak lee troughing. As nice warm up is possible
next Monday in the warm sector, followed by cooling with another
fropa.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
For a couple of hours, there will be light snow, cigs down around
bkn010, and vsbys down to as low as 2sm in -sn. There is a thin
25-mile wide band of light to moderate snow following an upper
level axis of a low pressure trough moving east across Kansas.
Then there will be a 4 to 6 hour period of 080-100 foot cigs,
before winds will drop off and skies will begin to clear for the
overnight period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 19 53 34 52 / 0 0 0 30
GCK 23 63 34 51 / 0 0 0 40
EHA 28 66 41 56 / 0 0 0 40
LBL 23 63 38 56 / 0 0 0 30
HYS 19 53 31 49 / 0 0 0 30
P28 14 52 30 56 / 10 0 0 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Burke
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
210 PM CST Wed Mar 5 2014
...Update to cancel advisory and trim precipitation coverage...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
The upper trough is moving slightly quicker than previously
thought. Canceled the WSW Winter Weather Advisory at 12:40 PM.
Also moved the back edge of precipitation quite a bit east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
Enhanced radar returns from the Mosaic radar loop over northeast
Colorado earlier this morning related well to an area of 700mb
frontogenesis at 06z from the the latest RAP, NAM and GFS. Each
Model move this area of frontogenesis across southwest Kansas
between 12z and 21z. In addition the model soundings today
suggested the precipitation type will be mainly snow as this band
of steadier precipitation crosses southwest Kansas. NAM and GFS
however differ slightly on timing with the GFS more progressive
than the NAM. They also differ slightly on a shallow warm layer in
the 875 to 800mb layer which if the warmer NAM is more correct
would support a chance for sleet at times. At this time will
continue to mention of mix of sleet and snow given uncertainty of
this warm layer and based on the latest RAP have trended more
towards progressive GFS on timing of the steadier precipitation.
Given the more progressive solution the precipitation will end
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Clouds will also
begin to decrease from northwest to southeast late in the day
based subsidence and drier air developing in the wake of an upper
level trough as it crosses western Kansas between 18z Wednesday
and 00z Thursday. With some breaks of sun possible by late day in
far western/west Central Kansas will trend towards the warmer
MET/MAV guidance for highs while further east favor the cooler NAM
2 meter temps. Given how progressive this system is expected today
will continue to favor snowfall amounts of 1 inch or less,
however if a band of the steadier precipitation persists longer in
one area, like what the NAM suggests between 18z and 21z, then a few
locations may have totals of up to 2 inches. Still given this snow
amounts will be below advisory criteria.
Tonight a surface ridge axis will cross south central Kansas as
surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies.
Southwest winds developing across much of western Kansas early
tonight may limit how cold temperatures will be early Thursday
morning so will continue to favor temperatures bottoming in the 20
to 25 degree range across far western and West central Kansas.
Further east, near the surface ridge axis, will lower temperatures
back to around 15 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
The GFS/GEM/UKMET were generally accepted over the ECMWF in regards
to the next upper level system to affect western Kansas Friday and
Saturday. The associated cold front will progress through western Kansas
Friday, with upper level energy hanging back over the southern Rockies
Friday night, and then slowly progressing southeastward in positively
tiled fashion by Saturday. This is certainly far from an ideal
prescription for a significant precipitation event given the lack of
low level baroclinic development, with post frontal cold advection
dominating. There is a small chance of rain late Friday and Friday
evening before a changeover to snow occurs later Friday night.
Some accumulation of snow is possible by midday Saturday before the
precipitation shuts off.
After the aforementioned upper level system moves southward into
Texas on Sunday, upper level ridging will develop over the central
high plains, with lee trough formation over the high plains. This
will lead to southwesterly boundary layer winds and warmer
temperatures for Sunday into Monday. Temperatures may even reach
70 on Monday.
Yet another upper level system will approach the central and southern
high plains by Tuesday or Tuesday night, along with cooler air and
another chance of rain or snow in the wake of the surface cold front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
For a couple of hours, there will be light snow, cigs down around
bkn010, and vsbys down to as low as 2sm in -sn. There is a thin
25-mile wide band of light to moderate snow following an upper
level axis of a low pressure trough moving east across Kansas.
Then there will be a 4 to 6 hour period of 080-100 foot cigs,
before winds will drop off and skies will begin to clear for the
overnight period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 19 53 35 56 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 23 63 35 53 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 28 66 40 55 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 23 63 38 56 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 19 53 33 51 / 0 0 0 10
P28 14 52 34 55 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Burke
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1113 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 509 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014
HAVE DONE A COUPLE OF UPDATES ALREADY. PRECIPITATION IS ENDING MUCH
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. SO HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST POPS
TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW. SO HAVE A MIXTURE OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW DURING THIS WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.. SINCE CLEARING IS OCCURRING ALREADY IN THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA...FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS HAVING ANY KIND OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
OUTPUT BUT I DIGRESS. WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THIS MORNING...IF ANY...AND THE PHASE OF THAT
PRECIPITATION...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING ON FRIDAY...AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT STILL
PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH WITH ONE MOVING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
ANOTHER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG PV ANOMALIES
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.
AIR MASS WARMED CONSIDERABLY OVER YESTERDAY BUT ANOTHER FRONT MOVED
THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO TAKE AWAY THAT WARMING. AT JET LEVEL...
MODELS HAVING A LOT OF TROUBLE HERE. THEY ARE EITHER UNDERDOING WIND
SPEEDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND JET NOSING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN OR HAVE THE POSITION OF THOSE JETS CORRECTLY. AT MID LEVELS...
THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS INITIALIZED TOO COLD TO OUR NORTH. THE
CANADIAN WAS DOING BEST AT THIS TIME.
TODAY/TONIGHT...SINCE AROUND 06Z RADAR HAS SHOWN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO/THROUGH AREA INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. 00Z NAM...03Z RUC AND EARLIER HRRR KEPT THE AREA NEARLY
DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INDICATED. HOWEVER
LATER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD MORE PRECIPITATION BUT KEPT MOST OF IT
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO STATELINE. 06Z RUN HAS CAUGHT ONTO
WHAT THE RADAR IS SHOWING AND IS SHOWING A NICE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING ACROSS.
ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER JET SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. DESPITE INITIAL
ANALYSIS PROBLEMS...THE MODELS DO TAKE A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
ACROSS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. BY 18Z LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF NORTH
TO SOUTH JET LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST BY 00Z. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. ALL THIS IS CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY AND
CONSIDERING WHAT RADAR AND REALITY ARE SHOWING...MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE POPS THIS MORNING. ALSO HAVE BEEN GETTING A MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. LOOKS LIKE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THIS LOOKS CAPTURED
REASONABLY WITH THE GRIDS AND ALSO DID NOT CHANGE.
MODEL DIFFERENCE IN HOW COLD OR WARM TO MAKE IT TODAY. LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION. MAJORITY
OF THE DATA SUPPORTED GOING MORE ON THE WARMER SIDE. SO ENDED UP
ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE WHAT IS
CAPTURING REALITY AT THIS TIME. DID ADJUST DOWN A LITTLE BIT
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL HAVE THE CLOUDS LONGEST.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL LATELY DUE TO NOT HAVING THE SNOWFIELD
CAPTURED CORRECTLY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND WHAT HAS BEEN
DOING BEST IN THE NON-SNOW COVERED AREAS SUPPORTED CURRENT KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH EITHER VERY LATE
IN THE NIGHT OR EARLY THE MORNING ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES FOR
THIS PERIOD AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND ALMOST LOOK LIKE A SPAGHETTI
PLOT. MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...SPECIFICALLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO BREAK OFF THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF THE TROUGH. MODELS LOOK LIKE THEY DIVE A STRONGER JET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SO THAT GENERAL SCENARIO LOOKS
REASONABLE. AS IT LOOKS NOW THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WHERE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS IT.
DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES BEING SO GREAT AND THE GENERAL IDEA OF WHAT
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MATCHES WITH THE FORECAST...WHICH ALSO MATCHES
UP WELL WITH THIS PATTERN AND WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON...WILL NOT
CHANGE THE POPS AND WEATHER. ALTHOUGH COULD SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEING LESS CONSIDERING THE TREND OF THE MODELS BEING FURTHER
WEST. FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT GOES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. DID LOWER THE
MAXES SOME CONSIDERING THIS BUT COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL AMOUNT OF
COOLING NEEDED. ALSO WITH THE GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE 3
HOUR PRESSURE RISES THAT MOVE ACROSS BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS LOOK TO
BE IN THE WINDY CATEGORY.
THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014
ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW WILL END EARLY SATURDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS
TO THE EAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON REPRESENTATION OF THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THAT
PERIOD. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN A RATHER STRONG KICKER BEHIND THE
INITIAL WAVE...BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH KICKER. CANNOT JUSTIFY
MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. IT SHOULD HOWEVER COOL
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014
GLD WILL TRANSITION FROM IFR THROUGH MVFR TO VFR BETWEEN 18Z-20Z
AS LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF. AFTER 20Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AFTER 03Z AND INCREASE TO OVER 10 KTS AFTER
14Z THURSDAY MORNING.
MCK WILL START OUT MVFR AND WILL BECOME VFR BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND SUNSET TRANSITIONING SLOWLY TO LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY 14Z THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JDK
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1123 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2014
...Updated for the aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
Enhanced radar returns from the Mosaic radar loop over northeast
Colorado earlier this morning related well to an area of 700mb
frontogenesis at 06z from the the latest RAP, NAM and GFS. Each
Model move this area of frontogenesis across southwest Kansas
between 12z and 21z. In addition the model soundings today
suggested the precipitation type will be mainly snow as this band
of steadier precipitation crosses southwest Kansas. NAM and GFS
however differ slightly on timing with the GFS more progressive
than the NAM. They also differ slightly on a shallow warm layer in
the 875 to 800mb layer which if the warmer NAM is more correct
would support a chance for sleet at times. At this time will
continue to mention of mix of sleet and snow given uncertainty of
this warm layer and based on the latest RAP have trended more
towards progressive GFS on timing of the steadier precipitation.
Given the more progressive solution the precipitation will end
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Clouds will also
begin to decrease from northwest to southeast late in the day
based subsidence and drier air developing in the wake of an upper
level trough as it crosses western Kansas between 18z Wednesday
and 00z Thursday. With some breaks of sun possible by late day in
far western/west Central Kansas will trend towards the warmer
MET/MAV guidance for highs while further east favor the cooler NAM
2 meter temps. Given how progressive this system is expected today
will continue to favor snowfall amounts of 1 inch or less,
however if a band of the steadier precipitation persists longer in
one area, like what the NAM suggests between 18z and 21z, then a few
locations may have totals of up to 2 inches. Still given this snow
amounts will be below advisory criteria.
Tonight a surface ridge axis will cross south central Kansas as
surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies.
Southwest winds developing across much of western Kansas early
tonight may limit how cold temperatures will be early Thursday
morning so will continue to favor temperatures bottoming in the 20
to 25 degree range across far western and West central Kansas.
Further east, near the surface ridge axis, will lower temperatures
back to around 15 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
The GFS/GEM/UKMET were generally accepted over the ECMWF in regards
to the next upper level system to affect western Kansas Friday and
Saturday. The associated cold front will progress through western Kansas
Friday, with upper level energy hanging back over the southern Rockies
Friday night, and then slowly progressing southeastward in positively
tiled fashion by Saturday. This is certainly far from an ideal
prescription for a significant precipitation event given the lack of
low level baroclinic development, with post frontal cold advection
dominating. There is a small chance of rain late Friday and Friday
evening before a changeover to snow occurs later Friday night.
Some accumulation of snow is possible by midday Saturday before the
precipitation shuts off.
After the aforementioned upper level system moves southward into
Texas on Sunday, upper level ridging will develop over the central
high plains, with lee trough formation over the high plains. This
will lead to southwesterly boundary layer winds and warmer
temperatures for Sunday into Monday. Temperatures may even reach
70 on Monday.
Yet another upper level system will approach the central and southern
high plains by Tuesday or Tuesday night, along with cooler air and
another chance of rain or snow in the wake of the surface cold front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
For a couple of hours, there will be light snow, cigs down around
bkn010, and vsbys down to as low as 2sm in -sn. There is a thin
25-mile wide band of light to moderate snow following an upper
level axis of a low pressure trough moving east across Kansas.
Then there will be a 4 to 6 hour period of 080-100 foot cigs,
before winds will drop off and skies will begin to clear for the
overnight period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 33 19 57 35 / 70 0 0 0
GCK 35 23 63 35 / 70 0 0 0
EHA 41 28 66 40 / 40 0 0 0
LBL 38 23 63 38 / 30 0 0 0
HYS 32 19 56 33 / 80 0 0 0
P28 38 14 52 34 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 1 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ030-
031-043>045.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
516 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 509 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014
HAVE DONE A COUPLE OF UPDATES ALREADY. PRECIPITATION IS ENDING MUCH
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. SO HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST POPS
TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW. SO HAVE A MIXTURE OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW DURING THIS WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.. SINCE CLEARING IS OCCURRING ALREADY IN THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA...FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS HAVING ANY KIND OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
OUTPUT BUT I DIGRESS. WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THIS MORNING...IF ANY...AND THE PHASE OF THAT
PRECIPITATION...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING ON FRIDAY...AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT STILL
PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH WITH ONE MOVING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
ANOTHER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG PV ANOMALIES
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.
AIR MASS WARMED CONSIDERABLY OVER YESTERDAY BUT ANOTHER FRONT MOVED
THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO TAKE AWAY THAT WARMING. AT JET LEVEL...
MODELS HAVING A LOT OF TROUBLE HERE. THEY ARE EITHER UNDERDOING WIND
SPEEDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND JET NOSING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN OR HAVE THE POSITION OF THOSE JETS CORRECTLY. AT MID LEVELS...
THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS INITIALIZED TOO COLD TO OUR NORTH. THE
CANADIAN WAS DOING BEST AT THIS TIME.
TODAY/TONIGHT...SINCE AROUND 06Z RADAR HAS SHOWN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO/THROUGH AREA INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. 00Z NAM...03Z RUC AND EARLIER HRRR KEPT THE AREA NEARLY
DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INDICATED. HOWEVER
LATER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD MORE PRECIPITATION BUT KEPT MOST OF IT
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO STATELINE. 06Z RUN HAS CAUGHT ONTO
WHAT THE RADAR IS SHOWING AND IS SHOWING A NICE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING ACROSS.
ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER JET SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. DESPITE INITIAL
ANALYSIS PROBLEMS...THE MODELS DO TAKE A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
ACROSS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. BY 18Z LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF NORTH
TO SOUTH JET LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST BY 00Z. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. ALL THIS IS CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY AND
CONSIDERING WHAT RADAR AND REALITY ARE SHOWING...MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE POPS THIS MORNING. ALSO HAVE BEEN GETTING A MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. LOOKS LIKE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THIS LOOKS CAPTURED
REASONABLY WITH THE GRIDS AND ALSO DID NOT CHANGE.
MODEL DIFFERENCE IN HOW COLD OR WARM TO MAKE IT TODAY. LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION. MAJORITY
OF THE DATA SUPPORTED GOING MORE ON THE WARMER SIDE. SO ENDED UP
ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE WHAT IS
CAPTURING REALITY AT THIS TIME. DID ADJUST DOWN A LITTLE BIT
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL HAVE THE CLOUDS LONGEST.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL LATELY DUE TO NOT HAVING THE SNOWFIELD
CAPTURED CORRECTLY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND WHAT HAS BEEN
DOING BEST IN THE NON-SNOW COVERED AREAS SUPPORTED CURRENT KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH EITHER VERY LATE
IN THE NIGHT OR EARLY THE MORNING ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES FOR
THIS PERIOD AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND ALMOST LOOK LIKE A SPAGHETTI
PLOT. MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...SPECIFICALLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO BREAK OFF THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF THE TROUGH. MODELS LOOK LIKE THEY DIVE A STRONGER JET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SO THAT GENERAL SCENARIO LOOKS
REASONABLE. AS IT LOOKS NOW THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WHERE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS IT.
DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES BEING SO GREAT AND THE GENERAL IDEA OF WHAT
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MATCHES WITH THE FORECAST...WHICH ALSO MATCHES
UP WELL WITH THIS PATTERN AND WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON...WILL NOT
CHANGE THE POPS AND WEATHER. ALTHOUGH COULD SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEING LESS CONSIDERING THE TREND OF THE MODELS BEING FURTHER
WEST. FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT GOES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. DID LOWER THE
MAXES SOME CONSIDERING THIS BUT COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL AMOUNT OF
COOLING NEEDED. ALSO WITH THE GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE 3
HOUR PRESSURE RISES THAT MOVE ACROSS BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS LOOK TO
BE IN THE WINDY CATEGORY.
THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014
ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW WILL END EARLY SATURDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS
TO THE EAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON REPRESENTATION OF THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THAT
PERIOD. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN A RATHER STRONG KICKER BEHIND THE
INITIAL WAVE...BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH KICKER. CANNOT JUSTIFY
MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. IT SHOULD HOWEVER COOL
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 509 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014
WHAT PRECIPITATION THERE IS HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF BOTH TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...BOTH SITES WILL HAVE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
18Z DUE TO STRATUS AND FOG. AFTER THAT VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT/SHIFTING WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JDK
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
557 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2014
...Updated for aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
Enhanced radar returns from the Mosaic radar loop over northeast
Colorado earlier this morning related well to an area of 700mb
frontogenesis at 06z from the the latest RAP, NAM and GFS. Each
Model move this area of frontogenesis across southwest Kansas
between 12z and 21z. In addition the model soundings today
suggested the precipitation type will be mainly snow as this band
of steadier precipitation crosses southwest Kansas. NAM and GFS
however differ slightly on timing with the GFS more progressive
than the NAM. They also differ slightly on a shallow warm layer in
the 875 to 800mb layer which if the warmer NAM is more correct
would support a chance for sleet at times. At this time will
continue to mention of mix of sleet and snow given uncertainty of
this warm layer and based on the latest RAP have trended more
towards progressive GFS on timing of the steadier precipitation.
Given the more progressive solution the precipitation will end
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Clouds will also
begin to decrease from northwest to southeast late in the day
based subsidence and drier air developing in the wake of an upper
level trough as it crosses western Kansas between 18z Wednesday
and 00z Thursday. With some breaks of sun possible by late day in
far western/west Central Kansas will trend towards the warmer
MET/MAV guidance for highs while further east favor the cooler NAM
2 meter temps. Given how progressive this system is expected today
will continue to favor snowfall amounts of 1 inch or less,
however if a band of the steadier precipitation persists longer in
one area, like what the NAM suggests between 18z and 21z, then a few
locations may have totals of up to 2 inches. Still given this snow
amounts will be below advisory criteria.
Tonight a surface ridge axis will cross south central Kansas as
surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies.
Southwest winds developing across much of western Kansas early
tonight may limit how cold temperatures will be early Thursday
morning so will continue to favor temperatures bottoming in the 20
to 25 degree range across far western and West central Kansas.
Further east, near the surface ridge axis, will lower temperatures
back to around 15 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
The GFS/GEM/UKMET were generally accepted over the ECMWF in regards
to the next upper level system to affect western Kansas Friday and
Saturday. The associated cold front will progress through western Kansas
Friday, with upper level energy hanging back over the southern Rockies
Friday night, and then slowly progressing southeastward in positively
tiled fashion by Saturday. This is certainly far from an ideal
prescription for a significant precipitation event given the lack of
low level baroclinic development, with post frontal cold advection
dominating. There is a small chance of rain late Friday and Friday
evening before a changeover to snow occurs later Friday night.
Some accumulation of snow is possible by midday Saturday before the
precipitation shuts off.
After the aforementioned upper level system moves southward into
Texas on Sunday, upper level ridging will develop over the central
high plains, with lee trough formation over the high plains. This
will lead to southwesterly boundary layer winds and warmer
temperatures for Sunday into Monday. Temperatures may even reach
70 on Monday.
Yet another upper level system will approach the central and southern
high plains by Tuesday or Tuesday night, along with cooler air and
another chance of rain or snow in the wake of the surface cold front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
IFR CIGS at GCK will expand in the wake of a cold front to include
GCK/HYS by 15z. VISBYS may drop to 1-3 miles briefly if snow develops
as expected ahead of an upper level disturbance. Clearing will
occur after 23z after the passage of the disturbance.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 33 19 57 35 / 70 0 0 0
GCK 35 23 63 35 / 70 0 0 0
EHA 40 28 66 40 / 50 0 0 0
LBL 38 23 63 38 / 60 0 0 0
HYS 32 19 56 33 / 70 0 0 0
P28 34 14 52 34 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...Finch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
258 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS HAVING ANY KIND OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
OUTPUT BUT I DIGRESS. WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THIS MORNING...IF ANY...AND THE PHASE OF THAT
PRECIPITATION...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING ON FRIDAY...AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT STILL
PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH WITH ONE MOVING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
ANOTHER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG PV ANOMALIES
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.
AIR MASS WARMED CONSIDERABLY OVER YESTERDAY BUT ANOTHER FRONT MOVED
THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO TAKE AWAY THAT WARMING. AT JET LEVEL...
MODELS HAVING A LOT OF TROUBLE HERE. THEY ARE EITHER UNDERDOING WIND
SPEEDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND JET NOSING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN OR HAVE THE POSITION OF THOSE JETS CORRECTLY. AT MID LEVELS...
THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS INITIALIZED TOO COLD TO OUR NORTH. THE
CANADIAN WAS DOING BEST AT THIS TIME.
TODAY/TONIGHT...SINCE AROUND 06Z RADAR HAS SHOWN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO/THROUGH AREA INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. 00Z NAM...03Z RUC AND EARLIER HRRR KEPT THE AREA NEARLY
DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INDICATED. HOWEVER
LATER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD MORE PRECIPITATION BUT KEPT MOST OF IT
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO STATELINE. 06Z RUN HAS CAUGHT ONTO
WHAT THE RADAR IS SHOWING AND IS SHOWING A NICE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING ACROSS.
ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER JET SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. DESPITE INITIAL
ANALYSIS PROBLEMS...THE MODELS DO TAKE A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
ACROSS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. BY 18Z LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF NORTH
TO SOUTH JET LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST BY 00Z. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. ALL THIS IS CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY AND
CONSIDERING WHAT RADAR AND REALITY ARE SHOWING...MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE POPS THIS MORNING. ALSO HAVE BEEN GETTING A MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. LOOKS LIKE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THIS LOOKS CAPTURED
REASONABLY WITH THE GRIDS AND ALSO DID NOT CHANGE.
MODEL DIFFERENCE IN HOW COLD OR WARM TO MAKE IT TODAY. LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION. MAJORITY
OF THE DATA SUPPORTED GOING MORE ON THE WARMER SIDE. SO ENDED UP
ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE WHAT IS
CAPTURING REALITY AT THIS TIME. DID ADJUST DOWN A LITTLE BIT
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL HAVE THE CLOUDS LONGEST.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL LATELY DUE TO NOT HAVING THE SNOWFIELD
CAPTURED CORRECTLY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND WHAT HAS BEEN
DOING BEST IN THE NON-SNOW COVERED AREAS SUPPORTED CURRENT KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH EITHER VERY LATE
IN THE NIGHT OR EARLY THE MORNING ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES FOR
THIS PERIOD AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND ALMOST LOOK LIKE A SPAGHETTI
PLOT. MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...SPECIFICALLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO BREAK OFF THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF THE TROUGH. MODELS LOOK LIKE THEY DIVE A STRONGER JET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SO THAT GENERAL SCENARIO LOOKS
REASONABLE. AS IT LOOKS NOW THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WHERE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS IT.
DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES BEING SO GREAT AND THE GENERAL IDEA OF WHAT
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MATCHES WITH THE FORECAST...WHICH ALSO MATCHES
UP WELL WITH THIS PATTERN AND WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON...WILL NOT
CHANGE THE POPS AND WEATHER. ALTHOUGH COULD SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEING LESS CONSIDERING THE TREND OF THE MODELS BEING FURTHER
WEST. FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT GOES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. DID LOWER THE
MAXES SOME CONSIDERING THIS BUT COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL AMOUNT OF
COOLING NEEDED. ALSO WITH THE GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE 3
HOUR PRESSURE RISES THAT MOVE ACROSS BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS LOOK TO
BE IN THE WINDY CATEGORY.
THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014
ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW WILL END EARLY SATURDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS
TO THE EAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON REPRESENTATION OF THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THAT
PERIOD. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN A RATHER STRONG KICKER BEHIND THE
INITIAL WAVE...BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH KICKER. CANNOT JUSTIFY
MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. IT SHOULD HOWEVER COOL
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 907 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR TAFS IS STILL THE TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND
MVFR CEILINGS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DID NOT MATERIALIZE FOR THE
EARLIER TAF ISSUANCE AS MODELS WERE DEPICTING. THEREFORE...TRUSTING
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE IS A BIT HARD AT THIS POINT.
ALSO...THE UPDATED RAP AND NAM HAVE BEEN REMOVING PRECIPITATION
AND DELAYING ITS ONSET. GLANCED AT THE HRRR TO SEE IF IT HAD THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW HANDLED FAIRLY WELL. WENT AHEAD AND WENT
WITH THIS MODEL FOR NOW SINCE OTHER MODELS STILL INDICATE ENHANCED
LIFT OVER THE AREA DURING THE TIMES THE HRRR BROKE OUT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO KGLD
AND KMCK AROUND 09Z WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING FOR KMCK AT 11Z AND
KGLD AT 12Z. LEFT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT MVFR INSTEAD OF
IFR...WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS MATERIALIZES AND AMENDMENTS WILL
BE MADE WHEN NECESSARY. THIS IS STILL A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AROUND 16Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 23Z UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JDK
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
356 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2014
...Updated for long term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
Enhanced radar returns from the Mosaic radar loop over northeast
Colorado earlier this morning related well to an area of 700mb
frontogenesis at 06z from the the latest RAP, NAM and GFS. Each
Model move this area of frontogenesis across southwest Kansas
between 12z and 21z. In addition the model soundings today
suggested the precipitation type will be mainly snow as this band
of steadier precipitation crosses southwest Kansas. NAM and GFS
however differ slightly on timing with the GFS more progressive
than the NAM. They also differ slightly on a shallow warm layer in
the 875 to 800mb layer which if the warmer NAM is more correct
would support a chance for sleet at times. At this time will
continue to mention of mix of sleet and snow given uncertainty of
this warm layer and based on the latest RAP have trended more
towards progressive GFS on timing of the steadier precipitation.
Given the more progressive solution the precipitation will end
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Clouds will also
begin to decrease from northwest to southeast late in the day
based subsidence and drier air developing in the wake of an upper
level trough as it crosses western Kansas between 18z Wednesday
and 00z Thursday. With some breaks of sun possible by late day in
far western/west Central Kansas will trend towards the warmer
MET/MAV guidance for highs while further east favor the cooler NAM
2 meter temps. Given how progressive this system is expected today
will continue to favor snowfall amounts of 1 inch or less,
however if a band of the steadier precipitation persists longer in
one area, like what the NAM suggests between 18z and 21z, then a few
locations may have totals of up to 2 inches. Still given this snow
amounts will be below advisory criteria.
Tonight a surface ridge axis will cross south central Kansas as
surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies.
Southwest winds developing across much of western Kansas early
tonight may limit how cold temperatures will be early Thursday
morning so will continue to favor temperatures bottoming in the 20
to 25 degree range across far western and West central Kansas.
Further east, near the surface ridge axis, will lower temperatures
back to around 15 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
The GFS/GEM/UKMET were generally accepted over the ECMWF in regards
to the next upper level system to affect western Kansas Friday and
Saturday. The associated cold front will progress through western Kansas
Friday, with upper level energy hanging back over the southern Rockies
Friday night, and then slowly progressing southeastward in positively
tiled fashion by Saturday. This is certainly far from an ideal
prescription for a significant precipitation event given the lack of
low level baroclinic development, with post frontal cold advection
dominating. There is a small chance of rain late Friday and Friday
evening before a changeover to snow occurs later Friday night.
Some accumulation of snow is possible by midday Saturday before the
precipitation shuts off.
After the aforementioned upper level system moves southward into
Texas on Sunday, upper level ridging will develop over the central
high plains, with lee trough formation over the high plains. This
will lead to southwesterly boundary layer winds and warmer
temperatures for Sunday into Monday. Temperatures may even reach
70 on Monday.
Yet another upper level system will approach the central and southern
high plains by Tuesday or Tuesday night, along with cooler air and
another chance of rain or snow in the wake of the surface cold front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
Mid level moisture will continue increase across western Kansas
overnight as an upper level trough crosses Colorado and New
Mexico. A cold front, located across north central/northwest Kansas at
4z, will move across southwest Kansas between 6z and 12z. As this
front passes a northwest wind at around 15kts will develop. In
addition, low level moisture will increase favoring MVFR cigs
developing between 09z and 12z. IFR cigs and vsbys are then
expected between 12z and 21z. A period of Light snow will be
possible with the IFR conditions late morning and early afternoon
with snow accumulations at this time expected to be one inch or
less. Slightly higher amounts will be possible near the GCK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 33 19 57 35 / 70 0 0 0
GCK 35 23 63 35 / 70 0 0 0
EHA 40 28 66 40 / 50 0 0 0
LBL 38 23 63 38 / 60 0 0 0
HYS 32 19 56 33 / 70 0 0 0
P28 34 14 52 34 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
204 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2014
...Updated synopsis and short term discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
At 00z Wednesday a 80kt to 100kt 300mb jet extended from central
California into southeastern Arizona. A 500mb trough was located
near the left exit region of this upper jet, and extended from
Colorado into the four corners region. East of this upper level
trough a 700mb trough was located over northeast New Mexico and
eastern Colorado. A surface cold front extended from southeast
Nebraska into northwest Colorado. An area of warm 850mb
temperatures were present south of this cold front range from +13
at Amarillo to +11c at Dodge City.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
Enhanced radar returns from the Mosaic radar loop over northeast
Colorado earlier this morning related well to an area of 700mb
frontogenesis at 06z from the the latest RAP, NAM and GFS. Each
Model move this area of frontogenesis across southwest Kansas
between 12z and 21z. In addition the model soundings today
suggested the precipitation type will be mainly snow as this band
of steadier precipitation crosses southwest Kansas. NAM and GFS
however differ slightly on timing with the GFS more progressive
than the NAM. They also differ slightly on a shallow warm layer in
the 875 to 800mb layer which if the warmer NAM is more correct
would support a chance for sleet at times. At this time will
continue to mention of mix of sleet and snow given uncertainty of
this warm layer and based on the latest RAP have trended more
towards progressive GFS on timing of the steadier precipitation.
Given the more progressive solution the precipitation will end
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Clouds will also
begin to decrease from northwest to southeast late in the day
based subsidence and drier air developing in the wake of an upper
level trough as it crosses western Kansas between 18z Wednesday
and 00z Thursday. With some breaks of sun possible by late day in
far western/west Central Kansas will trend towards the warmer
MET/MAV guidance for highs while further east favor the cooler NAM
2 meter temps. Given how progressive this system is expected today
will continue to favor snowfall amounts of 1 inch or less,
however if a band of the steadier precipitation persists longer in
one area, like what the NAM suggests between 18z and 21z, then a few
locations may have totals of up to 2 inches. Still given this snow
amounts will be below advisory criteria.
Tonight a surface ridge axis will cross south central Kansas as
surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies.
Southwest winds developing across much of western Kansas early
tonight may limit how cold temperatures will be early Thursday
morning so will continue to favor temperatures bottoming in the 20
to 25 degree range across far western and West central Kansas.
Further east, near the surface ridge axis, will lower temperatures
back to around 15 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
The extended forecast period, starting with Wednesday night, will
see a short wave exiting to the east of our forecast area. I will
leave just a slender section of Pratt and Barber Counties for light
snow Wednesday night. Then on Thursday, as fresh snow cover will be
laid down, but plentiful sunshine will shine down and warm up
southwest Kansas to near 50F degrees in the Stafford to Barber
Counties areas, but zoom temperatures up into the mid 60s in our
west with little snow cover to work with. South winds will help
keep temperatures somewhat elevated Thursday night in the middle 30s
to lower 40s. I considered lowering mins a bit over the snow areas
of my eastern CWA, but clouds and south winds can keep the surface
temperatures higher vs lower. Friday will be partly sunny with
winds becoming north after a cold front passes south, with north
afternoon winds at 15 to 20 mph and gusty. An upper level trough
will approach from the west late Friday, and will lead to a chance
of rain or snow early Friday night, then a chance of snow for all
the area after midnight Friday night. I do not see too much
snowfall with this system, but up to an inch in spots. Lows Friday
night should end up in the mid 20s to around 30F degrees.
On Saturday, the upper flow will return from the west to northwest,
and begin a slow warm up. Saturday will be in the upper 30s to
lower 40s, then Sunday should warm nicely in to the lower to upper
50s, followed by Monday with highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
A weak cold front appears to be crossing north to south on Tuesday
per the ECMWF model, bringing highs in the middle 50s to near 60F.
Low temperatures from Saturday morning through Tuesday morning will
be warming from the middle 20s Sat and Sun, to the middle 30s to
around 40F degrees by Tuesday morning.
A note about the 8 to 14 outlook, upon further looking into the long
range models, this period should be characteristic with below normal
temperatures and maybe near normal precipitation. Maximum
temperatures should be near normal, but minimum temperatures below
normal. Another upper wave may cross the plains late Wednesday into
Friday, giving a slight chance for some rain or snow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
Mid level moisture will continue increase across western Kansas
overnight as an upper level trough crosses Colorado and New
Mexico. A cold front, located across north central/northwest Kansas at
4z, will move across southwest Kansas between 6z and 12z. As this
front passes a northwest wind at around 15kts will develop. In
addition, low level moisture will increase favoring MVFR cigs
developing between 09z and 12z. IFR cigs and vsbys are then
expected between 12z and 21z. A period of Light snow will be
possible with the IFR conditions late morning and early afternoon
with snow accumulations at this time expected to be one inch or
less. Slightly higher amounts will be possible near the GCK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 32 19 57 35 / 80 0 0 0
GCK 34 23 63 35 / 70 0 0 0
EHA 39 28 66 40 / 50 0 0 0
LBL 37 23 63 38 / 60 0 0 0
HYS 31 19 56 33 / 50 0 0 0
P28 33 14 52 34 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1201 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014
ALTHOUGH LIGHT RETURNS ARE INDICATED BY RADAR JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE ACTUALLY REPORTING
PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME SATURATING...
BUT THE LATEST NAM/RAP CONTINUE THE TREND OF MOISTENING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. SO...ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY. LATEST NAM RAOBS SHOW A WARM LAYER OFF THE
SURFACE...SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF MIXED PHASE PRECIPITATION
UNTIL 15Z OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO WITH WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST CWA...SEPARATING AREA OF TEMPS IN THE
LOW 60S FROM AREA OF UPPER 30S.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LARGE AREA
OF CIRRUS APPARENTLY HAVING ONLY SMALL IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SURGE TO THE SOUTH BRINGING MUCH COLDER
AIR TO THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS A PERIOD OF STRONG ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL FROPA...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN
EXCESS OF 100 MB LEAD ME TO THINK THAT APART FROM DEVELOPING A LOW
STRATUS DECK AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG...PRECIPITATION WILL BE
UNLIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE 5Z. STRONG H65 TO H6 FRONTAL ZONE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH AFTER 06Z. ALTHOUGH THIS DOES APPEAR TO
BE SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING PER DIV
Q/PV FIELDS...JET STREAK TO THE NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY AID
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE FORCED ASCENT. EPV* AROUND H6 INDICATES
INSTABILITY MAY BE RELEASED WITH ANY FRONTAL CIRCULATION THAT
DEVELOPS...SO EVEN THOUGH DURATION WILL BE RATHER BRIEF SNOWFALL
RATES MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH IN SOME AREAS. FRONTAL ZONE/SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE QUICK TO DEPART THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO END QUICKLY AFTER 14Z. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH A FEW AREAS AROUND 2 OR
3 INCHES WHEREVER STRONG FRONTAL BAND DEVELOPS.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A CONCERN AS WARM LAYER WILL BE PRESENT
INITIALLY BEFORE WET BULB PROCESSES/CAA ADVECTION CREATE A PROFILE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW. A BRIEF WINDOW OF RAIN/IP/FZRA MAY OCCUR
BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...DO NOT THINK THIS WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT DUE TO BRIEF DURATION. AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS...LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD LAYER MAY BRING A PERIOD OF -FZDZ
BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO TOO LOW
TO CONSIDER ANY KIND OF WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014
ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW WILL END EARLY SATURDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS
TO THE EAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON REPRESENTATION OF THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THAT
PERIOD. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN A RATHER STRONG KICKER BEHIND THE
INITIAL WAVE...BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH KICKER. CANNOT JUSTIFY
MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. IT SHOULD HOWEVER COOL
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 907 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR TAFS IS STILL THE TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND
MVFR CEILINGS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DID NOT MATERIALIZE FOR THE
EARLIER TAF ISSUANCE AS MODELS WERE DEPICTING. THEREFORE...TRUSTING
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE IS A BIT HARD AT THIS POINT.
ALSO...THE UPDATED RAP AND NAM HAVE BEEN REMOVING PRECIPITATION
AND DELAYING ITS ONSET. GLANCED AT THE HRRR TO SEE IF IT HAD THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW HANDLED FAIRLY WELL. WENT AHEAD AND WENT
WITH THIS MODEL FOR NOW SINCE OTHER MODELS STILL INDICATE ENHANCED
LIFT OVER THE AREA DURING THE TIMES THE HRRR BROKE OUT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO KGLD
AND KMCK AROUND 09Z WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING FOR KMCK AT 11Z AND
KGLD AT 12Z. LEFT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT MVFR INSTEAD OF
IFR...WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS MATERIALIZES AND AMENDMENTS WILL
BE MADE WHEN NECESSARY. THIS IS STILL A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AROUND 16Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 23Z UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
921 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014
ALTHOUGH LIGHT RETURNS ARE INDICATED BY RADAR JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE ACTUALLY REPORTING
PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME SATURATING...
BUT THE LATEST NAM/RAP CONTINUE THE TREND OF MOISTENING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. SO...ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY. LATEST NAM RAOBS SHOW A WARM LAYER OFF THE
SURFACE...SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF MIXED PHASE PRECIPITATION
UNTIL 15Z OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO WITH WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST CWA...SEPARATING AREA OF TEMPS IN THE
LOW 60S FROM AREA OF UPPER 30S.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LARGE AREA
OF CIRRUS APPARENTLY HAVING ONLY SMALL IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SURGE TO THE SOUTH BRINGING MUCH COLDER
AIR TO THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS A PERIOD OF STRONG ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL FROPA...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN
EXCESS OF 100 MB LEAD ME TO THINK THAT APART FROM DEVELOPING A LOW
STRATUS DECK AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG...PRECIPITATION WILL BE
UNLIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE 5Z. STRONG H65 TO H6 FRONTAL ZONE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH AFTER 06Z. ALTHOUGH THIS DOES APPEAR TO
BE SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING PER DIV
Q/PV FIELDS...JET STREAK TO THE NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY AID
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE FORCED ASCENT. EPV* AROUND H6 INDICATES
INSTABILITY MAY BE RELEASED WITH ANY FRONTAL CIRCULATION THAT
DEVELOPS...SO EVEN THOUGH DURATION WILL BE RATHER BRIEF SNOWFALL
RATES MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH IN SOME AREAS. FRONTAL ZONE/SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE QUICK TO DEPART THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO END QUICKLY AFTER 14Z. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH A FEW AREAS AROUND 2 OR
3 INCHES WHEREVER STRONG FRONTAL BAND DEVELOPS.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A CONCERN AS WARM LAYER WILL BE PRESENT
INITIALLY BEFORE WET BULB PROCESSES/CAA ADVECTION CREATE A PROFILE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW. A BRIEF WINDOW OF RAIN/IP/FZRA MAY OCCUR
BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...DO NOT THINK THIS WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT DUE TO BRIEF DURATION. AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS...LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD LAYER MAY BRING A PERIOD OF -FZDZ
BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO TOO LOW
TO CONSIDER ANY KIND OF WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014
THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH BY MIDDAY AND GOOD WAA ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT MILD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE 60S (POSSIBLY AROUND 70F). NOT SURE WHAT HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST OR POTENTIAL (LIGHT) SNOW PACK
WILL HAVE...SO DIDNT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER GREAT
BASIN/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT REGION DURING THESE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AND PRECIP
CHANCES ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT...ENDING SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON ADVERTISING GOOD FORCING/MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAKER FORCING EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF OUR CWA. STAYED WITH TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT LIKELY
POPS IN EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS IN KS/NE.
SHOULD MAINLY BE A RAIN-SNOW CHANGE OVER...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLIMATOLOGICAL SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS GIVE US AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PART OF
CWA. NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE A
RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATION OF AIR MASS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
(HIGHS 55-66F) ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. A LITTLE MORE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE WESTERN US/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH COULD BRING COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO
REGION. STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND 50-55F FOR HIGHS (USING
CONSENSUS). NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON TUESDAY FORECAST BASED ON
SPREAD IN MODELS AT THIS RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 907 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR TAFS IS STILL THE TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND
MVFR CEILINGS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DID NOT MATERIALIZE FOR THE
EARLIER TAF ISSUANCE AS MODELS WERE DEPICTING. THEREFORE...TRUSTING
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE IS A BIT HARD AT THIS POINT.
ALSO...THE UPDATED RAP AND NAM HAVE BEEN REMOVING PRECIPITATION
AND DELAYING ITS ONSET. GLANCED AT THE HRRR TO SEE IF IT HAD THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW HANDLED FAIRLY WELL. WENT AHEAD AND WENT
WITH THIS MODEL FOR NOW SINCE OTHER MODELS STILL INDICATE ENHANCED
LIFT OVER THE AREA DURING THE TIMES THE HRRR BROKE OUT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO KGLD
AND KMCK AROUND 09Z WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING FOR KMCK AT 11Z AND
KGLD AT 12Z. LEFT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT MVFR INSTEAD OF
IFR...WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS MATERIALIZES AND AMENDMENTS WILL
BE MADE WHEN NECESSARY. THIS IS STILL A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AROUND 16Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 23Z UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1240 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
PRODUCING CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF YORK COUNTY MAINE WESTWARD INTO NH. SNOW SHOWERS WITH
SCT EMBEDDED SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW
HAMPSHIRE...AND MAY CROSS OVER THE MAINE BORDER FROM TIME TO TIME
LATER ON.
945 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST HANDLING THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
WELL. FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE BLENDED IN LATEST HRRR AND RAP TO THE
GOING POP FORECAST TO BETTER CAPTURE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND ACROSS NH THIS AFTN. COULD SEE LOCAL 1 TO 2
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON IN A N-S LINE IN NH THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH INVERTED SFC REFLECTION.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
PREVIOUSLY...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
SNFL IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY SLIPPING S. SRN ZONES COULD SEE A FEW
MORE HOURS -SN...BUT QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND TOTALS WILL AMOUNT TO
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FRESH ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY SINK
SWD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THOUGH FORCING ISN/T OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...INTENSE THERMAL PACKING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHSN AS IT MARCHES SWD. MAY SEE OCCASIONAL
BANDS OF MORE STEADY SNFL AS IT DOES SO...AS IS SEEN ATTM FROM
KIZG TO KWVL. POCKETS OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT QPF...THUS
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE SNFL. AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...FOCUSED ON THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA
AND IN THE MTNS OF NH. LATE TODAY A STRONGER S/WV WILL CROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME STRONGER LIFT. HOWEVER DRYING ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN BY THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC FNT CONTINUES TO SAG THRU THE CWFA TONIGHT INTO THU. EXPECT
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM N TO S. AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME VERY COLD TEMPS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN VALLEYS...WHILE SRN
ZONES MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE FOR IDEAL CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CREST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HEADING OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. ALL
MODELS WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WELL WEST OF THIS
SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT FOCUSED
CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTLINE.
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM CANADA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MORE SIGNIFICANT
EAST COAST STORM AROUND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL TO BE
DETERMINED IF SUFFICIENT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE AROUND TO ALLOW
FOR SNOW...OR A COLD RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE SHORT
TERM. SCT SHSN WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ALONG SAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT WILL BE TEMPO IN NATURE. ONLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE INVOF KHIE WHERE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OF LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FNT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS THRU THE DAY. CAA
BEHIND THE FNT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS
ON THE OUTER WATERS. EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS HOWEVER.
LONG TERM...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
950 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
PRODUCING CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST HANDLING THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
WELL. FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE BLENDED IN LATEST HRRR AND RAP TO THE
GOING POP FORECAST TO BETTER CAPTURE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND ACROSS NH THIS AFTN. COULD SEE LOCAL 1 TO 2
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON IN A N-S LINE IN NH THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH INVERTED SFC REFLECTION.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
PREVIOUSLY...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
SNFL IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY SLIPPING S. SRN ZONES COULD SEE A FEW
MORE HOURS -SN...BUT QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND TOTALS WILL AMOUNT TO
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FRESH ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY SINK
SWD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THOUGH FORCING ISN/T OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...INTENSE THERMAL PACKING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHSN AS IT MARCHES SWD. MAY SEE OCCASIONAL
BANDS OF MORE STEADY SNFL AS IT DOES SO...AS IS SEEN ATTM FROM
KIZG TO KWVL. POCKETS OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT QPF...THUS
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE SNFL. AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...FOCUSED ON THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA
AND IN THE MTNS OF NH. LATE TODAY A STRONGER S/WV WILL CROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME STRONGER LIFT. HOWEVER DRYING ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN BY THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC FNT CONTINUES TO SAG THRU THE CWFA TONIGHT INTO THU. EXPECT
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM N TO S. AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME VERY COLD TEMPS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN VALLEYS...WHILE SRN
ZONES MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE FOR IDEAL CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CREST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HEADING OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. ALL
MODELS WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WELL WEST OF THIS
SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT FOCUSED
CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTLINE.
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM CANADA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MORE SIGNIFICANT
EAST COAST STORM AROUND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL TO BE
DETERMINED IF SUFFICIENT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE AROUND TO ALLOW
FOR SNOW...OR A COLD RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE SHORT
TERM. SCT SHSN WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ALONG SAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT WILL BE TEMPO IN NATURE. ONLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE INVOF KHIE WHERE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OF LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FNT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS THRU THE DAY. CAA
BEHIND THE FNT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS
ON THE OUTER WATERS. EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS HOWEVER.
LONG TERM...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
938 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...WILL INTENSIFY
WHILE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1035 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE COAST
OF GA. CYCLOGENSIS OFF THE SERN COAST RESULTS IN A MILLER-A
SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO TRACK NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH FRI. CURRENT RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF
IN MAIN PRECIP SHIELD...GENLY HAVING A TOUGH TIME PUSHING NORTH OF
SOUTHERN VA THUS FAR. LATEST 00Z NAM AND RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH JUST A SLOW PUSH NORTH
OVERNIGHT. FOR P-TYPE WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO...NAM12/RAP SFC WET BULB
32 F LINE. CURRENTLY THIS IS SITUATED FROM ABOUT WILLIAMSBURG TO
EMPORIA WITH THIS LINE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE NW
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING ALIGNED FROM ABOUT TAPPAHANNOCK TO RICHMOND
AIRPORT TO BRUNSWICK COUNTY BY 12Z/FRI. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST WILL GENLY HAVE SNOW/SLEET TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING
RAIN...WHILES AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BECOME PLAIN RAIN.
HAVE MADE SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY...TO
HIGHLIGHT ZONES FROM CUMBERLAND COUNTY TO CAROLINE COUNTY HAVING
THE POTENTIAL TO STAY AT OR BELOW 32 F THE LONGEST (THROUGH NOON
FRI) WITH THE REMAINDER OF COUNTIES RISING ABOVE 32 F BY MID-LATE
MORNING FRI. WITH THAT SAID...BEST FORCING REMAINS ACRS SOUTHERN
VA AND NC OVERNIGHT SO QPF AMOUNTS AND PERHAPS THE HIGHEST IMPACT
FOR SNOW/SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY FREEZING RAIN WILL MORE LIKELY
OCCUR FROM SOUTH HILL TO FARMVILLE THROUGH 12Z/FRI...WITH DRIER
AIR FARTHER NORTH TENDING TO LIMIT QPF TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS (IF
THAT) FOR AREAS NW OF RICHMOND THROUGH 12Z.
LOWS U20S-L30S...XCPT 35-40 FAR SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIXED PCPN OVER THE NWRN CNTYS FRI MORNING BECOMES ALL RAIN BY
AROUND NOON (ALTHOUGH COULD SEE FLUVANNA/LOUISA TAKING A BIT
LONGER) AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ADDED SOME MDT (PSBLY
HVY AT TIMES) RAIN TO THE GRIDS DRNG THE LATE MORNING AND AFTRN
ACROSS SERN HALF OF FA WHERE BEST FORCING SEEN. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW TRACKS NE. HIGHS FROM THE
MID 30S WRN PIEDMONT TO NR 50 SERN COASTAL AREAS.
LOW PRS PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA FRI NIGHT. PCPN ENDS W-E WITH DCRG
CLDNS AFTER MIDNIGHT WRN AREAS. LOWS IN THE L-M30S EXCEPT U30S-L40S
SERN COASTAL AREAS.
TOTAL QPF RANGING FROM ARND 1/4" NWRN MOST CNTYS...1/2" AVC-RIC-SBY
TO BTWN 1.00-1.50" ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC.
WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. EXPECT PT TO MSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TMPS. H85 TMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
U50S-L60S WEST OF THE BAY...L-M50S ALONG THE COAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH IN BACKDOOR FASHION LATE SAT NGT THROUGH SUN MRNG.
MOISTURE LIMITED SO CONFINED LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN MOST
COUNTYS. LOWS 35-40. PT TO MSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY AND A BIT COOLER
SUNDAY. HIGHS U40-M50S IVOF THE WATER...U50S-L60S WEST OF THE BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING GENERALLY WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE TWO MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE
LOCATION...MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF LO PRES ACRS THE AREA WED THRU
THU. DRY WX WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MON AND TUE...AS WSW
FLO SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 60S ON MON...AND INTO THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ON TUE. LO PRES WILL THEN RESULT IN CHC FOR
SHOWERS OR RAIN LATE TUE NGT INTO THU MORNG. DRY WX RETURNS THU
AFTN. LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 30S MON MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S TUE MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO UPR 40S WED MORNG...AND RANGING
FM THE LWR 30S TO LWR 40S THU MORNG. HIGHS RANGING FM THE LWR 50S
TO LWR 60S WED...AND RANGING FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...FINALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND IS RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR
THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING ORF AND ECG. A BAND OF PCPN ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR START TIME OF THE PCPN BUT
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY.
PCPN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN EXCEPT FOR MIXED PCPN AT RIC WHERE
A LIGHT COATING OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING. PCPN
CHANGES TO RAIN FRIDAY MORNING (AROUND 13-15Z).
WENT CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE WITH IFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER THE TIME PCPN BEGINS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONLY SLIGHTLY FRIDAY
AS PCPN CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PUSHES OUT TO SEA AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FM FLORIDA NE AND JUST OFF THE
SE AND MID ATLC CST THIS EVENG THRU FRI NGT. HAVE ADDED THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY (ANZ634) AND CURRITUCK SND (ANZ633) TO THE GALE WARNING
WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT THRU FRI EVENG. ELSEWHERE...SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU LATE FRI NGT OR THRU SAT MORNG (ON THE CST). WAVES
WILL BLD TO 4 TO 6 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS WILL BLD TO 8 TO
12 FT ON THE CST DUE TO VERY STRONG NE OR N WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
CALMER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FM MIDDAY SAT THRU TUE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES XPCD TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.5 FT ABV NORMAL ALG THE OCN
AND IN THE BAY FM THROUGH FRI. NO FLOODING XPCD ATTM DUE TO DCRSG
ASTRO TIDE LVLS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR PSBL STRONGER PD OF WNDS
(TNGT THRU FRI) WHICH MAY RESULT IN DEPARTURES RISING CLOSER TO 2
FT (AND THAT WOULD APPROACH MINOR THRESHOLDS IN SOME PLACES).
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
061>064-069.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ060-
065>068-079-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ070-071.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ633-634-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
635>638-650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
847 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES BRING PERIODIC CLOUD COVER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A CROSSING SHRTWV...ASSOCIATED CDFNT...CONTS TO SPREAD CLDS OVR
THE REGION THIS MRNG. SLGT POPS WERE INCLUDED WITH PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND INCOMING RAP MDL DATA.
NEVERTHELESS...ANY PCPN WL BE LGT. THE DISTURBANCE WL ALSO REINFORCE
COLD AIR OVR THE REGION...HENCE EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO TOP OUT 10-15
DEG BLO SEASONAL AVGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK MD LVL TROFG WL KEEP SOME CLDS ACRS THE RGN TNGT BEFORE EXITING
THU. SFC RIDGING SETS UP THU THRU ERLY SAT WITH DRY WEA EXPD. LOW
PRES DVLPG OVR THE SERN CONUS SHOULD STAY TO OUR SE. THE NAM SOLN
APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER BRINGING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER N THAN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. A CDFNT WL SLOWLY APCH THE GT LKS SAT BRINGING
MAINLY RAIN SHWR CHCS LTR IN THE DAY. A WRMG TREND WL CONT INTO
SAT WITH TEMPS RCHG NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG BY FRI AND SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN THEN SETS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK CDFNT WL COMPLETE A CROSSING OF THE UPR OH REGION TDA
ACCOMPANIED BY VFR STRATOCU AND LGT N SFC WIND. VFR WL CONT TNGT
AS BLDG HIGH PRES DISSIPATES THE STRATUSCU.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A SATURDAY...EARLY
SUNDAY CDFNT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1125 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
COMPLETED AN UPDATE OF GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
STRONGER BANDS OF -SN JUST N OF THE MN/IA BORDER THAT HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY PERSISTENT SINCE APPROXIMATELY 00Z. THIS BATCH OF HEAVIER
-SN FROM REDWOOD COUNTY THRU FREEBORN COUNTY HAS SHOWN STRONG DBZ
WHICH HAS CORRELATED TO SPOTTER REPORTS OF 3-5 INCHES ALREADY.
THIS BAND ALSO HAS MATCHED UP NICELY WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND HOPWRF...SO HAVE EXPANDED W AND N THE WINTER WX
ADVY AND ALSO NUDGED UP SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE 3-6 INCH RANGE. THE
NRN EDGE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY...REMAINING S OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO...
AND AM NOT EXPECTING A SHIFT N OF THE SNOWFALL FROM WHERE IT
CURRENTLY DELINEATES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE SLOWLY COME TOGETHER THIS AFTN FOR A QUICK 2
TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF A STRONG SHRTWV & WAA LAYER /92-70H/ MOVING THRU SOUTHERN MN
THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADAR WAS DEPICTING A LARGE AREA OF HIGHER
RETURNS ACROSS SD/ND MOVING SE EARLY THIS AFTN...THE CONTINUED DRY
FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL SOUTH OF I-94. IT MAY EVEN TAKE A FEW HRS BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES ENOUGH FOR THE SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND IN EC
MN. OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HOPWRF AND RAP...THERE REMAINS A
VERY SHARP BOUNDARY BETWEEN NO SNOWFALL...AND LOCALLY 1 TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE DRIER AIR
TO HOLD THE NE 1/3 OF MPX CWA DRY...WITH THE BULK OF THE QPF SOUTH
OF NEW ULM TO OWATONNA. I DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO SPECIFIC ON
WHERE THE CUTOFF WOULD BE TO THE NE...BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE TWIN CITIES MAY ONLY GET FLURRIES...WITH ONE
TO TWO INCHES IN SCOTT/DAKOTA COUNTIES. AGAIN...THIS IS BASED ON
THE CURRENT RUN OF BOTH THE HOPWRF/RAP. ANY DEVIATION TO THE
STRONGER FORCING ALONG THE 92-70H FRONTOGENETIC ZONE THIS
EVENING...WILL CAUSE MORE OR LESS SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WC
WI. OTHERWISE...THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY FAST AND WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION BY 12Z.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
THE WELL-ADVERTISED MODERATING TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND EVEN WITH THE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF CHANCE
POPS...THE NEXT 7 DAYS LOOKS FAIRLY DRY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A
+40 DAY LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WITH A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION THAT KICKS IN SUNDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...IT MIGHT BE 40
DEGREES AT SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT. THESE ARE THINGS THAT WILL
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. FRIDAY MORNING WILL ALSO BE QUITE MILD
AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO A NON-DIURNAL TREND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WIDESPREAD >32 TEMPS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THAT BEGS THE
QUESTION WHAT KIND (IF ANY) PRECIP FALLS FROM THE SKY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE QPF IS LIGHT AND THE FORCING FAVORS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...A TREND THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 3-4 MODEL CYCLES. THE NAM GENERALLY HAS A
SNOW -> BREAK -> FREEZING RAIN -> RAIN -> SNOW TREND DURING THIS
TIME. MEANWHILE...THE GFS TREND MORE LIKE SNOW -> SLEET ->
FREEZING RAIN -> SNOW. PRETTY MESSY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE TREND
VARYING SPATIAL AND LACKING MODEL CYCLE CONSISTENCY. WE STAYED
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SNOW...BUT ARX/DMX NWS OFFICES MIGHT HAVE THE
BETTER IDEA CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A WHILE ON
FRIDAY. IT COULD JUST AS EASY BE NEARLY DRY AND SIMPLY BE
OVERCAST. LOW CONFIDENCE P-TYPE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT WE
ARE CONFIDENT IN A LOW-TO-NO QPF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
ASIDE FROM KRWF...ALL SITES TO REMAIN AS VFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF WED. BKN-OVC SKIES WILL
PREVAIL...WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS INTO MVFR RANGE FOR THE NRN
SITES /KAXN-KSTC/ TMRW AFTN. FOR KRWF...STILL HAVING SOLID LGT-MOD
SNOW WHICH LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE NEXT 2-3 HRS...
PRODUCING VFR-IFR CONDS. EVEN AS THE -SN ENDS...VSBY WILL
CERTAINLY IMPROVE BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN WITHIN MVFR-IFR FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WED. WUBDS SLOWLY SHIFT FROM ENE TO SE DURG THE DAY TMRW
AND APPROACH SSE BY TMRW EVE. SPEEDS REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE
THRU TMRW AFTN...THEN INCRS TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE TMRW EVE.
KMSP...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD...BUT THE -SN
IS AWFULLY CLOSE TO THE S. NOT EXPECTING IT TO MOVE N AND CAUSE
ANY ISSUES FOR KMSP...BUT WOULD STILL LEAVE A SMALL CHC THRU 09Z
THAT SOME 6SM OR AT WORST 5SM -SN MAY MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...MIDLVL CIGS WILL PREVAIL WITH INSIGNIFICANT IMPACT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS...BECOMING N.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS...BECOMING W.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ065-067-
073>077-082>085-091>093.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
952 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
MILD START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ZONES...WITH 20S OVER THE EAST. MILD DAY TODAY LOOKS
GOOD EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS GRAB
ONTO A SHORTWAVE AND SWING IT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WE GO INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE GFS PAINTS SOME QPF NORTH AND EAST
OF BILLINGS DURING THIS PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS ON THE MILD
SIDE WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE 4C. RAISED POPS AND
WENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX.
NOW FOR WIND THREAT AT LIVINGSTON...MODELS PLACE 55KTS INTO PARK
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOES INCREASE THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ON THE UNSTABLE
SIDE AND THUS DO NOT THINK GAP FLOW WILL BE REALIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG 700MB WINDS ARE A CONCERN...BUT GENERAL ASCENT
IS PROGGED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE MOVING ACROSS. WILL
WATCH THINGS CLOSELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
WITH THE WINDS. MAY NEED AN ADVISORY THIS EVENING AS THE LEE
TROUGH TIGHTENS UP. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU THANKS TO THE EASTWARD PUSH
OF A WARM PACIFIC AIR MASS UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
TODAY...WE ARE CARRYING SOME PATCHY FOG IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MT
THROUGH 15 UTC...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON CARRYING LOW POPS OVER
THAT AREA THIS MORNING SINCE RADAR ECHOES ARE SPARSE/WEAK AS OF 10
UTC. PLUS...THE HRRR /WHICH CAPTURES THE CURRENT RADAR ECHOES/ HAS
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DISSIPATING BY ABOUT 14 UTC AS A WEAK WAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT ACTIVITY HEADS EAST. VERY WARM AIR AT 850 HPA
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH VALUES BY LATE
AFTERNOON FROM +7 TO +11 C. WE ONCE AGAIN BUILT OUR FORECAST HIGHS
USING MOSTLY THE 00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED...MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IT
DID WELL ON TUE...SO WE HAVE LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THAT IT WILL
NOT PERFORM WELL AGAIN AS THE SNOWFIELD CONTINUES TO COMPACT/MELT.
THIS MEANS HIGHS ARE WELL INTO THE 40S F AGAIN...WITH 50S F ACROSS
HIGHER AND MORE EXPOSED RIDGES /SIMILAR TO TUE/. WE ACTUALLY ENDED
UP CARRYING SOME LOW POPS THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY SOUTHEASTWARD
TO ROUNDUP AND BILLINGS...MAINLY IN RESPECT TO THE 06 UTC GFS.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AT LIVINGSTON THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
PEAK SPEEDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN BOTH THE LOW-LEVEL
HEIGHT GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC WINDS DRIVEN BY PRESSURE FALLS ARE
WELL-LINKED. STILL...WE CHOSE TO CARRY GUSTS TO 55 MPH FOR NOW AND
HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STABILITY
AT MOUNTAIN-TOP LEVEL WILL BE MARGINAL FOR STRONG GAP FLOW. WE ARE
ALSO UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE BACKGROUND PATTERN /WHICH MAY BE OFF JUST
A BIT FROM A CLASSIC EVENT/...WHICH IS A QUESTION MARK THAT/S ALSO
BORNE OUT BY CIPS ANALOG PROBABILITIES FOR 50+ KT GUSTS /WHICH ARE
ONLY NEAR 10 PERCENT/. OTHERWISE...SOME SHOWER CHANCES ARE CARRIED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH RELATIVELY HIGHER /30 TO 40
PERCENT/ POPS FROM BILLINGS TO ROUNDUP AND HYSHAM AFTER 06 UTC. IT
WILL ALSO BE A MILD NIGHT...AND IF CLOUDS ARE THICK...OUR FORECAST
LOWS /WHICH ARE MAINLY IN THE 30S OR LOWER 40S/ COULD BE TOO COLD.
BY THU...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A 500-HPA SHORT
WAVE...AND THE NAEFS-BASED ANOMALY DATA REMAINS LOCKED INTO A GOOD
SIGNAL FOR STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT AS ITS INTEGRATED WATER
VAPOR VALUES SHOW A RETURN INTERVAL OF 10 TO 30 YEARS /CONSIDERING
OTHER EVENTS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR/. THUS...WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE
POPS OVER MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND ARE STILL EXPECTING A
GOOD 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THU NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MILD ON THU WITH HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 40S AND PROBABLY
50S F IN MANY CASES...THOUGH THICK CLOUDS COULD END UP HOLDING THE
HIGHS BACK A BIT MORE THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW.
MODELS INDICATING PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING INTO MONTANA BUT OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MINIMAL. COLD
FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL SET UP A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MONTANA. SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S BOTH DAYS. UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA WHICH WILL BRING GAP FLOW WINDS TO LIVINGSTON AND
THE NYE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN WASHINGTON STATE. THE STRONGEST ENERGY
WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF SC/SE MT BUT SOME WEAKER ENERGY AND
MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH GIVING US A CHANCE OF SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES SLIP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE KLVM REGION AFTER 18Z TODAY WHICH WILL MAY BRING A FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR TO THAT REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN ROUTES...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KLVM WITH
GUSTS OVER 35 KTS COMMON. AREAS OF OBSCURATION ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TODAY DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049 039/050 027/040 026/051 032/058 036/052 029/047
2/W 34/W 33/W 11/U 01/N 12/W 22/W
LVM 049 040/052 028/045 025/049 032/057 035/052 027/045
2/W 56/W 43/W 21/U 11/N 22/W 22/W
HDN 054 036/050 025/039 024/050 029/058 035/055 029/049
2/W 34/W 33/W 11/U 00/B 12/W 12/W
MLS 045 029/044 018/031 019/046 029/054 034/051 028/047
1/B 24/W 22/J 11/B 00/B 12/W 12/W
4BQ 047 030/049 022/037 022/048 028/059 034/055 028/048
0/B 24/W 32/W 11/B 00/B 12/W 12/W
BHK 045 025/043 015/028 015/041 026/051 029/048 024/042
0/B 13/W 22/J 11/B 00/B 12/W 11/B
SHR 051 032/056 026/044 023/052 028/061 032/055 027/046
0/B 13/W 43/W 21/U 00/B 12/W 13/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
327 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU THANKS TO THE EASTWARD PUSH
OF A WARM PACIFIC AIR MASS UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
TODAY...WE ARE CARRYING SOME PATCHY FOG IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MT
THROUGH 15 UTC...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON CARRYING LOW POPS OVER
THAT AREA THIS MORNING SINCE RADAR ECHOES ARE SPARSE/WEAK AS OF 10
UTC. PLUS...THE HRRR /WHICH CAPTURES THE CURRENT RADAR ECHOES/ HAS
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DISSIPATING BY ABOUT 14 UTC AS A WEAK WAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT ACTIVITY HEADS EAST. VERY WARM AIR AT 850 HPA
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH VALUES BY LATE
AFTERNOON FROM +7 TO +11 C. WE ONCE AGAIN BUILT OUR FORECAST HIGHS
USING MOSTLY THE 00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED...MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IT
DID WELL ON TUE...SO WE HAVE LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THAT IT WILL
NOT PERFORM WELL AGAIN AS THE SNOWFIELD CONTINUES TO COMPACT/MELT.
THIS MEANS HIGHS ARE WELL INTO THE 40S F AGAIN...WITH 50S F ACROSS
HIGHER AND MORE EXPOSED RIDGES /SIMILAR TO TUE/. WE ACTUALLY ENDED
UP CARRYING SOME LOW POPS THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY SOUTHEASTWARD
TO ROUNDUP AND BILLINGS...MAINLY IN RESPECT TO THE 06 UTC GFS.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AT LIVINGSTON THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
PEAK SPEEDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN BOTH THE LOW-LEVEL
HEIGHT GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC WINDS DRIVEN BY PRESSURE FALLS ARE
WELL-LINKED. STILL...WE CHOSE TO CARRY GUSTS TO 55 MPH FOR NOW AND
HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STABILITY
AT MOUNTAIN-TOP LEVEL WILL BE MARGINAL FOR STRONG GAP FLOW. WE ARE
ALSO UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE BACKGROUND PATTERN /WHICH MAY BE OFF JUST
A BIT FROM A CLASSIC EVENT/...WHICH IS A QUESTION MARK THAT/S ALSO
BORNE OUT BY CIPS ANALOG PROBABILITIES FOR 50+ KT GUSTS /WHICH ARE
ONLY NEAR 10 PERCENT/. OTHERWISE...SOME SHOWER CHANCES ARE CARRIED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH RELATIVELY HIGHER /30 TO 40
PERCENT/ POPS FROM BILLINGS TO ROUNDUP AND HYSHAM AFTER 06 UTC. IT
WILL ALSO BE A MILD NIGHT...AND IF CLOUDS ARE THICK...OUR FORECAST
LOWS /WHICH ARE MAINLY IN THE 30S OR LOWER 40S/ COULD BE TOO COLD.
BY THU...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A 500-HPA SHORT
WAVE...AND THE NAEFS-BASED ANOMALY DATA REMAINS LOCKED INTO A GOOD
SIGNAL FOR STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT AS ITS INTEGRATED WATER
VAPOR VALUES SHOW A RETURN INTERVAL OF 10 TO 30 YEARS /CONSIDERING
OTHER EVENTS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR/. THUS...WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE
POPS OVER MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND ARE STILL EXPECTING A
GOOD 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THU NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MILD ON THU WITH HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 40S AND PROBABLY
50S F IN MANY CASES...THOUGH THICK CLOUDS COULD END UP HOLDING THE
HIGHS BACK A BIT MORE THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW.
MODELS INDICATING PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING INTO MONTANA BUT OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MINIMAL. COLD
FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL SET UP A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MONTANA. SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S BOTH DAYS. UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA WHICH WILL BRING GAP FLOW WINDS TO LIVINGSTON AND
THE NYE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN WASHINGTON STATE. THE STRONGEST ENERGY
WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF SC/SE MT BUT SOME WEAKER ENERGY AND
MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH GIVING US A CHANCE OF SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES SLIP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. THE ONLY FLIGHT HAZARD THIS MORNING WILL BE PATCHY FOG IN
THE BAKER AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KLVM AFTER 18Z
TODAY WHICH WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO
THE SHOWERS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN KLVM WITH 30
TO 40 KTS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF OBSCURATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049 039/050 027/040 026/051 032/058 036/052 029/047
2/W 34/W 33/W 11/U 01/N 12/W 22/W
LVM 049 040/052 028/045 025/049 032/057 035/052 027/045
2/W 56/W 43/W 21/U 11/N 22/W 22/W
HDN 054 036/050 025/039 024/050 029/058 035/055 029/049
1/B 34/W 33/W 11/U 00/B 12/W 12/W
MLS 045 029/044 018/031 019/046 029/054 034/051 028/047
1/B 24/W 22/J 11/B 00/B 12/W 12/W
4BQ 047 030/049 022/037 022/048 028/059 034/055 028/048
0/B 24/W 32/W 11/B 00/B 12/W 12/W
BHK 045 025/043 015/028 015/041 026/051 029/048 024/042
1/B 13/W 22/J 11/B 00/B 12/W 11/B
SHR 051 032/056 026/044 023/052 028/061 032/055 027/046
0/B 13/W 43/W 21/U 00/B 12/W 13/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1050 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. A COUPLE
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WITH THE FOCUS BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NE AND IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WITH BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE LOW DEEPENING
OVER NE NM. WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARP;Y BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT
THAT WILL REACH FAR NE NM SHORTLY AND MOVE RAPIDLY S LATE
TONIGHT...REACHING ROW SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR AND MTN TOP
OBSCD EXPECTED FOR A FEW HRS BEHIND THE FRONT. 40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...915 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014...
.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NM THIS EVENING...
WITH SOME DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NW VIA WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO THIN/DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NM. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S AFTER SOME SHOWERS PASSED THRU...AND
UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S AT THE LOWEST. THUS...HAVE
RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM.
OTHERWISE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO PLOW THROUGH
THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGESTS THAT WIND ADVISORY TYPE SPEEDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW HOURS AROUND CLAYTON. GIVEN THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THESE
WINDS PLUS WINDS ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
COLORADO...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORIES ATTM.
UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THICK CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TODAY WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER IN THE EAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS
IT HAS BEEN. THURSDAY WILL SEE A STRONG WARMING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SLIDES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND. MORE RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING UPPER WAVE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS FAST AND MOISTURE RICH FLOW EJECTS EAST
OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS STARTED TRENDING STRONGER WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON THE QPF SIDE OF THINGS LAST NIGHT AND THAT TREND
CONTINUES. THE LATEST HRRR AND 18Z NAM ARE INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT LOW END PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NM
THIS EVENING. EVEN THE ABQ AND SAF METRO AREA ARE PROGGED TO PICK
UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS. HAVE TRENDED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN FOR THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF CHANCE IN SURROUNDING
LOWER ELEVATIONS. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY AS WELL ABOVE
7500 FEET. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PLUNGING INTO THE NE PLAINS
TONIGHT WILL FOCUS ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIP ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER. WINDS WILL ALSO BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED ADVISORY
CRITERIA IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HIGHLIGHTS DUE TO SHORT DURATION.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER OUT EAST AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
FILTER THROUGH THE AREA. A SUNNIER DAY THAN TODAY IS ON TAP MOST
AREAS HOWEVER STILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND
WINDS MIXING OVER THE AREA. THE EAST WILL PUSH LOW TO MID 70S ONCE
AGAIN.
EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A STORM SYSTEM DIVING SE OUT THE PACIFIC NW INTO NM FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAIN THE BIG
QUESTION WITH THIS EVENT. A DEEP COLD POOL OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
MAY ALLOW FOR GAP WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST ON CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO DELIVER THE BEST PRECIP
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE AS FAR WEST AS THE
DIVIDE IS POSSIBLE. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP WITH THIS SYSTEM SO DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD AT WORK.
DAYTIME INSTABILITY BENEATH THE COLD CORE WILL OFFER THE BEST SHOT
OF PRECIP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME STORMS SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED WIND FORECAST. INCREASED SPEEDS TO
MATCH BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON FRIDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE
COMING IN A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF THE FLOW
ALOFT/MIXING ON THAT DAY. ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT/S
COLD FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
PRETTY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND WOULD COINCIDE WITH A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE ALSO
INCREASED WITH THE PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF AND
NAM ARE ALL BULLISH FOR AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM
THIS QUICK HITTING SYSTEM ACROSS THE JEMEZ/LOWER SAN JUAN MTNS.
SUSPECT THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF THE SANDIAS
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL GET SOME MEASURABLE AS WELL. UNSURE
HOW MUCH WETTING...GREATER THAN TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT CANT RULE IT
OUT.
AS MENTIONED...PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL EFFECTS WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST QUARTER. A
SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTHWARD. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE QUITE STRONG ALONG THIS FRONTAL PUSH BUT THE FURTHER WEST YOU
GET...LESS WIND. WEDNESDAY SPEEDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MUCH WEAKER. VENTILATION RATES
WILL LOWER ACROSS MOST WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS. A STRONGER MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL TRIED TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AND COULD
AFFECT FAR WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL AS A RESULT. SHARPLY ACROSS
SOME AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP AREAWIDE AND EXPECTING ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MODERATE WIND FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. BELOW 15 PCT RH
VALUES SHOW UP ACROSS MANY OF THE LOWLAND AREAS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH LOWER RH WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA
ROSA BUT SHOULD BE LOCALIZED IN NATURE. LOOKING FOR A FEW STRONGER
BREEZES ACROSS THE HIGHER CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL.
THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL TAKE AIM ON THE AREA FRIDAY. WINDS
ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND COMBINE WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
BREEZINESS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO ADOPTED THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NAM SOLUTION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE AN INTERESTING WEATHER
DAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OR HIGHER DEWPOINTS FLOWING IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE BACK DOOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. LOOKING AT MID/UPPER
TEEN RH VALUES ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PLAINS. NOT LOOKING AT ANY CRITICAL CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME EVEN.
MODELS STILL SHOW A STRENGTHENING TROUGH WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR A
WETTING PRECIPITATION EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT AS THE PREVIOUS WEEKEND ONE. THE COLD FRONTAL PUSH
ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HELP CONCENTRATE SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION
THERE. ALSO EXPECT SOME POCKETS ACROSS THE NORTH AND PERHAPS EVEN
SOUTHWEST AREAS. EITHER WAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER. CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHTNING
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. SNOW LEVELS ALSO APPEAR TO BE LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
PASSAGE AND SNOW MELT WOULD HELP MOISTEN THE FUELS A BIT MORE.
A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS TO PUSH OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. SUSPECT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COME IN A LITTLE HIGHER
AS WE GET NEARER TO THAT PERIOD BECAUSE MIXING WILL BE LOWER AND
THUS KEEP SFC DEWPOINTS FROM GETTING TOO LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE ISNT
THE BEST FOR THE RH FORECAST ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
THE PACIFIC LOW CAN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST.
50
&&
&&
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
915 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NM THIS EVENING...
WITH SOME DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NW VIA WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO THIN/DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NM. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S AFTER SOME SHOWERS PASSED THRU...AND
UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S AT THE LOWEST. THUS...HAVE
RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM.
OTHERWISE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO PLOW THROUGH
THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGESTS THAT WIND ADVISORY TYPE SPEEDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW HOURS AROUND CLAYTON. GIVEN THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THESE
WINDS PLUS WINDS ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
COLORADO...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORIES ATTM.
UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...449 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
VCSH AT GUP/AEG/ABQ/SAF AND LVS...AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE SAME
SITES EXCEPT LVS. WAVE IMPACTING FMN/GUP NOW AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVE...THEN TRANSITION OVER CENTRAL SITES THIS EVENING
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN FINISH ITS SWEEP OF THE AREA BTWN 12Z
TO 15Z WED ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WAVE
PASSAGE AND WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL REACH FAR NE NM AROUND 06Z AND MOVE RAPIDLY S
LATE TONIGHT...REACHING ROW SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR AND MTN
TOP OBSCD IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HRS DURING THE WAVE PASSAGE. 40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THICK CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TODAY WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER IN THE EAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS
IT HAS BEEN. THURSDAY WILL SEE A STRONG WARMING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SLIDES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND. MORE RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING UPPER WAVE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS FAST AND MOISTURE RICH FLOW EJECTS EAST
OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS STARTED TRENDING STRONGER WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON THE QPF SIDE OF THINGS LAST NIGHT AND THAT TREND
CONTINUES. THE LATEST HRRR AND 18Z NAM ARE INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT LOW END PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NM
THIS EVENING. EVEN THE ABQ AND SAF METRO AREA ARE PROGGED TO PICK
UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS. HAVE TRENDED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN FOR THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF CHANCE IN SURROUNDING
LOWER ELEVATIONS. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY AS WELL ABOVE
7500 FEET. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PLUNGING INTO THE NE PLAINS
TONIGHT WILL FOCUS ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIP ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER. WINDS WILL ALSO BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED ADVISORY
CRITERIA IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HIGHLIGHTS DUE TO SHORT DURATION.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER OUT EAST AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
FILTER THROUGH THE AREA. A SUNNIER DAY THAN TODAY IS ON TAP MOST
AREAS HOWEVER STILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND
WINDS MIXING OVER THE AREA. THE EAST WILL PUSH LOW TO MID 70S ONCE
AGAIN.
EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A STORM SYSTEM DIVING SE OUT THE PACIFIC NW INTO NM FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAIN THE BIG
QUESTION WITH THIS EVENT. A DEEP COLD POOL OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
MAY ALLOW FOR GAP WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST ON CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO DELIVER THE BEST PRECIP
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE AS FAR WEST AS THE
DIVIDE IS POSSIBLE. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP WITH THIS SYSTEM SO DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD AT WORK.
DAYTIME INSTABILITY BENEATH THE COLD CORE WILL OFFER THE BEST SHOT
OF PRECIP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME STORMS SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED WIND FORECAST. INCREASED SPEEDS TO
MATCH BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON FRIDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE
COMING IN A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF THE FLOW
ALOFT/MIXING ON THAT DAY. ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT/S
COLD FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
PRETTY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND WOULD COINCIDE WITH A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE ALSO
INCREASED WITH THE PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF AND
NAM ARE ALL BULLISH FOR AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM
THIS QUICK HITTING SYSTEM ACROSS THE JEMEZ/LOWER SAN JUAN MTNS.
SUSPECT THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF THE SANDIAS
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL GET SOME MEASURABLE AS WELL. UNSURE
HOW MUCH WETTING...GREATER THAN TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT CANT RULE IT
OUT.
AS MENTIONED...PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL EFFECTS WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST QUARTER. A
SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTHWARD. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE QUITE STRONG ALONG THIS FRONTAL PUSH BUT THE FURTHER WEST YOU
GET...LESS WIND. WEDNESDAY SPEEDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MUCH WEAKER. VENTILATION RATES
WILL LOWER ACROSS MOST WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS. A STRONGER MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL TRIED TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AND COULD
AFFECT FAR WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL AS A RESULT. SHARPLY ACROSS
SOME AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP AREAWIDE AND EXPECTING ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MODERATE WIND FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. BELOW 15 PCT RH
VALUES SHOW UP ACROSS MANY OF THE LOWLAND AREAS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH LOWER RH WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA
ROSA BUT SHOULD BE LOCALIZED IN NATURE. LOOKING FOR A FEW STRONGER
BREEZES ACROSS THE HIGHER CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL.
THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL TAKE AIM ON THE AREA FRIDAY. WINDS
ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND COMBINE WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
BREEZINESS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO ADOPTED THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NAM SOLUTION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE AN INTERESTING WEATHER
DAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OR HIGHER DEWPOINTS FLOWING IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE BACK DOOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. LOOKING AT MID/UPPER
TEEN RH VALUES ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PLAINS. NOT LOOKING AT ANY CRITICAL CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME EVEN.
MODELS STILL SHOW A STRENGTHENING TROUGH WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR A
WETTING PRECIPITATION EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT AS THE PREVIOUS WEEKEND ONE. THE COLD FRONTAL PUSH
ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HELP CONCENTRATE SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION
THERE. ALSO EXPECT SOME POCKETS ACROSS THE NORTH AND PERHAPS EVEN
SOUTHWEST AREAS. EITHER WAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER. CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHTNING
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. SNOW LEVELS ALSO APPEAR TO BE LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
PASSAGE AND SNOW MELT WOULD HELP MOISTEN THE FUELS A BIT MORE.
A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS TO PUSH OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. SUSPECT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COME IN A LITTLE HIGHER
AS WE GET NEARER TO THAT PERIOD BECAUSE MIXING WILL BE LOWER AND
THUS KEEP SFC DEWPOINTS FROM GETTING TOO LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE ISNT
THE BEST FOR THE RH FORECAST ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
THE PACIFIC LOW CAN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST.
50
&&
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
945 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM THURSDAY...
CHALLENGING FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SEVERAL
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS PLAUSIBLE. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO ADD WARREN
COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY BASED ON REPORTS OF SLEET COVERING THE GROUND
AND EXPECTATIONS OF THE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE A
LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER THINKING.
LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SFC PATTERN IN A CLASSIC CAD
SIGNATURE WITH THE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE NC PIEDMONT FROM A PARENT
HIGH CENTERED OVER BOSTON AT 01Z. PER LOW LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
THIS FEATURE STILL SUPPLYING TEH WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH COOL DRY AIR.
MEANWHILE SFC LOW WAS OFF THE NE FL COAST LIFTING NE. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO WEATHER SYSTEM WAS CREATING
BLUSTERY NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTS AROUND 30MPH IN THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
PRECIPITATION HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN FALLING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. A SWITCH TO A WINTRY MIX OCCURS IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND WEST OF
THIS REGION WITH PREDOMINATELY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OCCURRING IN THE
NW PIEDMONT-TRIAD AND INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT NEAR THE VA
BORDER.
GSO 00Z SOUNDING DEPICTS A MODEST WARM NOSE AROUND 1 DEG C THOUGH
DOES SUGGEST AT A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 850-765MB. THIS
DEPICTION CLOSEST TO THE 12Z GFS WHILE 12Z NAM APPEARED TOO WARM
WITH THE WARM NOSE. DID NOTE THAT MHX 00Z SOUNDING HAD A WARM NOSE
AROUND 7 DEG C. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW AROUND THE
APPROACHING SFC LOW...THIS POCKET OF WARM AIR WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE
EAST INTO AT LEAST THE COASTAL PLAIN...SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT...KEEPING PRECIP ALL RAIN.
QUESTION ONE: HOW FAR WEST WILL THIS WARMER AIR REACH? BASED ON LOW
LEVEL STREAMLINES...THE WARMER AIR IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL MAKE IT
AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY ONE...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
THUS COULD SEE WARM NOSE ALOFT STRENGTHEN A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DID DEPICT DECENT MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN
VICINITY OF THE PARENT HIGH WHICH SUGGEST THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN
ANCHORED A BIT LONGER THAN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS (WHICH PUSHED THE
PARENT HIGH WILL OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING). THUS...CAD CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
THUS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE NW PIEDMONT WITH PRECIP RATES
DICTATING DOMINATE P-TYPE(HEAVIER RATES FAVOR SNOW AND SLEET,
LIGHTER AMOUNTS FREEZING RAIN).
AFTER 06Z...APPEARS THAT WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE AS MID LEVEL CYCLONE TAKES
SHAPE OVER CENTRAL SC. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP RATES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DURING THIS
TIME...PARTIAL THICKNESSES REMAIN IN THE WINTRY MIX PORTION OF THE
NOMOGRAM WHILE THE RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A FAIRLY DEEP
ISOTHERMAL LAYER (FAVOR SNOW) WITH THE GFS AND NAM MAINTAINING A
PROMINENT WARM NOSE (ESPECIALLY THE NAM AT 4 DEG C). WITH THE NEAR
SURFACE AIR MASS STILL DICTATED BY THE CHILLY PARENT HIGH AND AN
INCREASE IN PRECIP RATES AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT A COMBINATION OF
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREA. SINCE
PRECIP WILL BE MIXED...THIS WILL CUT BACK ON ANY ONE P-TYPE
ACCUMULATING TO OUTRAGEOUS AMOUNTS. IF SNOW WERE TO
PREDOMINATE...COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES OCCUR.
CONVERSELY...IF IT WERE ALL FREEZING RAIN...ICE ACCRUAL A QUARTER TO
A HALF INCH PROBABLE. SINCE A MIX EXPECTED...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TO
RANGE FROM A TRACE ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE ADVISORY TO 2-3
INCHES WITH POCKETS OF 4 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. ICE ACCRUAL
APPROACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE WARNING AREA...TRENDING TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE ADVISORY. EVEN ON THE FRINGES
OUTSIDE OF ADVISORY (NORTHERN MOORE...LEE...WESTERN AND NORTHERN
WAKE AND WESTERN FRANKLIN)...A POCKET OR TWO OF LIGHT GLAZE POSSIBLE
BUT LIMITED EFFECTS SUGGEST KEEPING THIS AREA OUT FO TEH ADVISORY
FOR NOW.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OF DEFORMATION OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MODEL/OBSERVED SOUNDING THERMAL
PROFILES...POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW FRIDAY MORNING
OVER SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT...MAINLY WESTERN SECTIONS....AS MID-
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE LIFTS NE OVER COASTAL CAROLINA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
SAT/SAT NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS WILL PREVAIL SAT/SAT NIGHT AS
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT 39-44F.
SUN/SUN NIGHT: A SHEAR AXIS WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUN AFT/EVE...AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO SAT IN THE MID
60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
EXPECT A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE
BY MID NEXT WEEK (WED/THU) IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE EAST CONUS. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 723 PM THURSDAY...
MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE FL/GA COAST MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION FROM A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN AT KRDU AND KRWI BETWEEN ABOUT
02-05Z... KINT AND KGSO BETWEEN 12-15Z... AND REMAIN RAIN AT KFAY.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING... WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 KTS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST.
LOOKING AHEAD: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER OFFSHORE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. -VINCENT
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ007-021>023-
038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ008>010-
024-025-039-040-073-074.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...SEC/VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
650 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT... BRINGING CHILLY TEMPERATURES BACK FOR THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST... BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL PERSIST TODAY IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA... BUT
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT AND INCONSEQUENTIAL. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS
A WEAK RESIDUAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM NC NE OVER THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA... RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH AND NE SURFACE WINDS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
OUTER BANKS IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA... WHICH MODELS INDICATE WILL SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL GA
ACROSS UPSTATE/CENTRAL SC INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NC... AND HAS BEEN
SPREADING SLOWLY NE IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO BE
LARGELY SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE 150+ KT JET FROM WV OUT OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ALL GENERALLY SHOW THIS LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CWA TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER AS TO
THE QPF AND NORTHWARD EXTENT. BASED ON THE CURRENT LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSION (AROUND 15 DEG)... RAP MODEL TRENDS... AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF SATURATION BELOW 800 MB EVEN AT FAY...
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A VERY LIGHT EVENT WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/SE OF ROCKINGHAM-FORT BRAGG-GOLDSBORO. WILL
KEEP POPS HERE IN THE 20-40% RANGE... HIGHEST IN SRN SAMPSON CO.
CURRENT SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS ALONG THE PATH OF THIS LIGHT PRECIP
ARE BELOW FREEZING... BUT THESE ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 32F BY
LATE MORNING. WILL START PRECIP OUT AS LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN... CHANGING TO JUST LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT ANY ACCRUAL TO BE
MINIMAL GIVEN THE LACK OF A SOURCE OF DRY AIR TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS
OF THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE... PLUS COVERAGE AND DURATION OF NON-RAIN
PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY SORT OF
CONCERN FOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS. HIGHS FROM 45 SOUTHEAST TO 53 IN THE
FAR WRN TRIAD REGION. THE HIGH-ROOTED LIFT WILL EXIT BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON... SO WILL END PRECIP CHANCES BY THIS TIME... WITH SKIES
TRENDING TO FAIR/PARTLY CLOUDY. A BACKDOOR FRONT NOW STRETCHING JUST
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH NC
TONIGHT... WITH THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE BEING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS AS THE 1040 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ESE
TO A POSITION OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE NOSING SOUTHWARD
INTO NC. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
28-30 NORTH TO 33-35 SOUTHEAST. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...
...A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...
WEST COAST RIDGING WILL ALLOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN GOMEX BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A MILLER-A TYPE SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MODELS
KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
MIDDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE THE HIGH IS
PROGRESSIVE...THE HIGH DOES SHIFT INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION OVER NEW
ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH NOSES INTO
THE AREA...DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE PUSHES SOUTH TO THE
NC/SC BORDER. DURING THIS TIME...PARTIAL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST
TO HOVER NEAR 1300/1550...WHICH SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...WITH A WARM NOSE AS
FAR WEST ARE THE TRIAD AND MORE PROMINENT THAN IN PAST MODEL RUNS.
WE EXPECT TO LOSE THE SUPPLY OF COLD AIR BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH RISE IN
SURFACE TEMPS TO MITIGATE ADDITIONAL ICING.
ONE OF THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTIES IS IN QPF. THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK...WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON BEING EAST OF
CHARLESTON FRIDAY MORNING...AND STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION/LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP FOCUSED OVER EASTERN NC.
HOWEVER...MODELS HINT AT SOME MID-LEVEL FGEN BACK TO THE
WEST...WHERE MODELS HAVE VARIED TREMENDOUSLY WITH QPF FROM RUN TO
RUN...WITH THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF GOING FROM AROUND AN INCH
OVER WESTERN NC TO NEARLY NOTHING...BACK TO AN INCH AGAIN ON THE
MOST RECENT RUN.
THE BOTTOM LINE AT THIS POINT IS THAT WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX...WITH LESSER
CHANCES CLOSER TO THE TRIANGLE AND POINTS EAST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE AND POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS IS STILL LOW
GIVEN SOME OF THE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACK
AND WESTERN EXTENT/STRENGTHEN OF THE WARM NOSE.
CHILLY HIGHS IN THE 40S ON THURSDAY WILL BE SENSITIVE TO HOW QUICKLY
PRECIP SPREADS INTO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING INTO THE 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT...HOVERING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE
GREATEST. GIVEN THAT MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH PRECIP EXITING
ON FRIDAY AND THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR DAMMING AIRMASS WILL HAVE TO BE
ERODED...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AGAIN. OW FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...
A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL PERIOD WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND NO LARGE
DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL TEMPS... BUT TURNING WARMER.
FOR SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKS NE WELL
OFF THE NE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH DRY LOW-MID LEVEL AIR. A
WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS... BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
FORECAST THICKNESSES NEAR NORMAL AND MODIFYING SUPPORT TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
NORTHEAST STATES SUNDAY WILL PUSH A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NC... ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THIS WAVE`S AMPLITUDE
WITH THE FASTER/WEAKER ECMWF KEEPING IT TO OUR NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE THE SLOWER/STRONGER GFS PUSHES IT TO OUR SOUTH (RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPS SUN/SUN NIGHT). SUCH DETAILS ARE UNRESOLVABLE AT THIS
RANGE SO WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE... WITH SUNDAY TEMPS SIMILAR TO
SAT BUT A BIT COOLER SUN NIGHT AS COMPARED TO SAT NIGHT.
FOR MON-TUE: TROUGHING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER NM/OK/TX INTO NRN
MEX OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OUT OVER THE NW GULF EARLY IN
THE WEEK... WHILE THE LARGELY FLAT AND WNW MID LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH
OF THE CONUS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER RATHER TRANQUIL WITH ONLY WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHING AND A DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL
AS THICKNESSES RISE. GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...
GOING FROM THE THE BEST TO WORST AVIATION CONDITIONS: FIRST... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT INT/GSO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
(THROUGH TONIGHT). WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
INTERIOR MIDATLANTIC REGION DOWN THROUGH NC WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
TODAY... AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD NC LATE
TODAY... PUSHING SOUTH THIS EVENING. NEXT... AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND RESULTING MOIST ATLANTIC INFLOW
BROUGHT MVFR CIGS (BUT VFR VSBYS) EARLY THIS MORNING. RDU HAS SINCE
RISEN TO VFR AT RDU... BUT AT RWI/FAY... MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO
HOLD THROUGH 00Z... FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBILITY OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT RWI. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES SE AND ERN NC TODAY... BRIEF VSBYS OF 5-6 SM IN
LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT DOMINATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE NNE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY... INCREASING TO AROUND 10-12 KTS
THIS EVENING BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD... AND
TO 12-15 KTS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THU MORNING. WHILE LLWS CRITERIA ARE UNLIKELY TO BE MET
TONIGHT... AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A QUICK
INCREASE IN NE WINDS TO 25-30 KTS AT AROUND 1000-1500 FT AGL AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z TONIGHT... THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT FAY
EARLY THU MORNING DUE TO THE ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT... BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THU AFTERNOON. A STORM SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN GULF THU
BEFORE TRACKING EAST THEN NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST... BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIP (POTENTIALLY WINTRY) AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL NC FROM 21Z THU THROUGH FRI EVENING. STRONG NE WINDS
(ESPECIALLY AT FAY/RWI) AND LLWS ARE LIKELY LATE THU THROUGH FRI DUE
TO THE COASTAL STORM. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE FRI
NIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH SUN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WITH LIGHT WINDS. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
320 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT... BRINGING CHILLY TEMPERATURES BACK FOR THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST... BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL PERSIST TODAY IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA... BUT
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT AND INCONSEQUENTIAL. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS
A WEAK RESIDUAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM NC NE OVER THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA... RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH AND NE SURFACE WINDS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
OUTER BANKS IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA... WHICH MODELS INDICATE WILL SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL GA
ACROSS UPSTATE/CENTRAL SC INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NC... AND HAS BEEN
SPREADING SLOWLY NE IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO BE
LARGELY SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE 150+ KT JET FROM WV OUT OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ALL GENERALLY SHOW THIS LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CWA TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER AS TO
THE QPF AND NORTHWARD EXTENT. BASED ON THE CURRENT LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSION (AROUND 15 DEG)... RAP MODEL TRENDS... AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF SATURATION BELOW 800 MB EVEN AT FAY...
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A VERY LIGHT EVENT WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/SE OF ROCKINGHAM-FORT BRAGG-GOLDSBORO. WILL
KEEP POPS HERE IN THE 20-40% RANGE... HIGHEST IN SRN SAMPSON CO.
CURRENT SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS ALONG THE PATH OF THIS LIGHT PRECIP
ARE BELOW FREEZING... BUT THESE ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 32F BY
LATE MORNING. WILL START PRECIP OUT AS LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN... CHANGING TO JUST LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT ANY ACCRUAL TO BE
MINIMAL GIVEN THE LACK OF A SOURCE OF DRY AIR TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS
OF THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE... PLUS COVERAGE AND DURATION OF NON-RAIN
PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY SORT OF
CONCERN FOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS. HIGHS FROM 45 SOUTHEAST TO 53 IN THE
FAR WRN TRIAD REGION. THE HIGH-ROOTED LIFT WILL EXIT BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON... SO WILL END PRECIP CHANCES BY THIS TIME... WITH SKIES
TRENDING TO FAIR/PARTLY CLOUDY. A BACKDOOR FRONT NOW STRETCHING JUST
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH NC
TONIGHT... WITH THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE BEING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS AS THE 1040 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ESE
TO A POSITION OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE NOSING SOUTHWARD
INTO NC. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
28-30 NORTH TO 33-35 SOUTHEAST. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...
...A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...
WEST COAST RIDGING WILL ALLOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN GOMEX BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A MILLER-A TYPE SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MODELS
KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
MIDDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE THE HIGH IS
PROGRESSIVE...THE HIGH DOES SHIFT INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION OVER NEW
ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH NOSES INTO
THE AREA...DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE PUSHES SOUTH TO THE
NC/SC BORDER. DURING THIS TIME...PARTIAL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST
TO HOVER NEAR 1300/1550...WHICH SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...WITH A WARM NOSE AS
FAR WEST ARE THE TRIAD AND MORE PROMINENT THAN IN PAST MODEL RUNS.
WE EXPECT TO LOSE THE SUPPLY OF COLD AIR BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH RISE IN
SURFACE TEMPS TO MITIGATE ADDITIONAL ICING.
ONE OF THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTIES IS IN QPF. THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK...WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON BEING EAST OF
CHARLESTON FRIDAY MORNING...AND STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION/LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP FOCUSED OVER EASTERN NC.
HOWEVER...MODELS HINT AT SOME MID-LEVEL FGEN BACK TO THE
WEST...WHERE MODELS HAVE VARIED TREMENDOUSLY WITH QPF FROM RUN TO
RUN...WITH THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF GOING FROM AROUND AN INCH
OVER WESTERN NC TO NEARLY NOTHING...BACK TO AN INCH AGAIN ON THE
MOST RECENT RUN.
THE BOTTOM LINE AT THIS POINT IS THAT WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX...WITH LESSER
CHANCES CLOSER TO THE TRIANGLE AND POINTS EAST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE AND POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS IS STILL LOW
GIVEN SOME OF THE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACK
AND WESTERN EXTENT/STRENGTHEN OF THE WARM NOSE.
CHILLY HIGHS IN THE 40S ON THURSDAY WILL BE SENSITIVE TO HOW QUICKLY
PRECIP SPREADS INTO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING INTO THE 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT...HOVERING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE
GREATEST. GIVEN THAT MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH PRECIP EXITING
ON FRIDAY AND THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR DAMMING AIRMASS WILL HAVE TO BE
ERODED...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AGAIN. OW FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...
A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL PERIOD WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND NO LARGE
DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL TEMPS... BUT TURNING WARMER.
FOR SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKS NE WELL
OFF THE NE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH DRY LOW-MID LEVEL AIR. A
WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS... BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
FORECAST THICKNESSES NEAR NORMAL AND MODIFYING SUPPORT TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
NORTHEAST STATES SUNDAY WILL PUSH A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NC... ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THIS WAVE`S AMPLITUDE
WITH THE FASTER/WEAKER ECMWF KEEPING IT TO OUR NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE THE SLOWER/STRONGER GFS PUSHES IT TO OUR SOUTH (RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPS SUN/SUN NIGHT). SUCH DETAILS ARE UNRESOLVABLE AT THIS
RANGE SO WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE... WITH SUNDAY TEMPS SIMILAR TO
SAT BUT A BIT COOLER SUN NIGHT AS COMPARED TO SAT NIGHT.
FOR MON-TUE: TROUGHING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER NM/OK/TX INTO NRN
MEX OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OUT OVER THE NW GULF EARLY IN
THE WEEK... WHILE THE LARGELY FLAT AND WNW MID LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH
OF THE CONUS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER RATHER TRANQUIL WITH ONLY WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHING AND A DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL
AS THICKNESSES RISE. GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM WEDNESDAY...
GOING FROM THE THE BEST TO WORST AVIATION CONDITIONS: FIRST... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT INT/GSO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
(THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT). WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
INTERIOR MIDATLANTIC REGION DOWN THROUGH NC WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
TODAY... AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD NC LATE
TODAY... PUSHING SOUTH THIS EVENING. NEXT... AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND RESULTING MOIST ATLANTIC INFLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR CIGS (BUT VFR VSBYS) EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AT RDU BY 09Z-12Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS HOLDING THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT... BUT AT
RWI/FAY... MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH 00Z... FOLLOWED BY A
POSSIBILITY OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES SE AND ERN NC TODAY... BRIEF
VSBYS OF 5-6 SM IN LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT DOMINATE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NNE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY... INCREASING
TO AROUND 10-12 KTS THIS EVENING BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT AS IT
DROPS SOUTHWARD. WHILE LLWS CRITERIA ARE UNLIKELY TO BE MET
TONIGHT... AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A QUICK
INCREASE IN NE WINDS TO 25-30 KTS AT AROUND 1000-1500 FT AGL AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT FAY
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW... BUT IN GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THU AFTERNOON. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN GULF THU BEFORE TRACKING EAST THEN NE
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST... BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP (POTENTIALLY
WINTRY) AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC FROM 21Z THU THROUGH
FRI EVENING. STRONG NE WINDS (ESPECIALLY AT FAY/RWI) AND LLWS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THU THROUGH FRI DUE TO THE COASTAL STORM. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE FRI NIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH SUN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT WINDS. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
310 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT... BRINGING CHILLY TEMPERATURES BACK FOR THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST... BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL PERSIST TODAY IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA... BUT
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT AND INCONSEQUENTIAL. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS
A WEAK RESIDUAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM NC NE OVER THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA... RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH AND NE SURFACE WINDS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
OUTER BANKS IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA... WHICH MODELS INDICATE WILL SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL GA
ACROSS UPSTATE/CENTRAL SC INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NC... AND HAS BEEN
SPREADING SLOWLY NE IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO BE
LARGELY SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE 150+ KT JET FROM WV OUT OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ALL GENERALLY SHOW THIS LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CWA TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER AS TO
THE QPF AND NORTHWARD EXTENT. BASED ON THE CURRENT LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSION (AROUND 15 DEG)... RAP MODEL TRENDS... AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF SATURATION BELOW 800 MB EVEN AT FAY...
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A VERY LIGHT EVENT WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/SE OF ROCKINGHAM-FORT BRAGG-GOLDSBORO. WILL
KEEP POPS HERE IN THE 20-40% RANGE... HIGHEST IN SRN SAMPSON CO.
CURRENT SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS ALONG THE PATH OF THIS LIGHT PRECIP
ARE BELOW FREEZING... BUT THESE ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 32F BY
LATE MORNING. WILL START PRECIP OUT AS LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN... CHANGING TO JUST LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT ANY ACCRUAL TO BE
MINIMAL GIVEN THE LACK OF A SOURCE OF DRY AIR TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS
OF THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE... PLUS COVERAGE AND DURATION OF NON-RAIN
PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY SORT OF
CONCERN FOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS. HIGHS FROM 45 SOUTHEAST TO 53 IN THE
FAR WRN TRIAD REGION. THE HIGH-ROOTED LIFT WILL EXIT BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON... SO WILL END PRECIP CHANCES BY THIS TIME... WITH SKIES
TRENDING TO FAIR/PARTLY CLOUDY. A BACKDOOR FRONT NOW STRETCHING JUST
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH NC
TONIGHT... WITH THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE BEING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS AS THE 1040 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ESE
TO A POSITION OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE NOSING SOUTHWARD
INTO NC. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
28-30 NORTH TO 33-35 SOUTHEAST. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...
...A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...
WEST COAST RIDGING WILL ALLOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN GOMEX BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A MILLER-A TYPE SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MODELS
KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
MIDDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE THE HIGH IS
PROGRESSIVE...THE HIGH DOES SHIFT INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION OVER NEW
ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH NOSES INTO
THE AREA...DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE PUSHES SOUTH TO THE
NC/SC BORDER. DURING THIS TIME...PARTIAL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST
TO HOVER NEAR 1300/1550...WHICH SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...WITH A WARM NOSE AS
FAR WEST ARE THE TRIAD AND MORE PROMINENT THAN IN PAST MODEL RUNS.
WE EXPECT TO LOSE THE SUPPLY OF COLD AIR BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH RISE IN
SURFACE TEMPS TO MITIGATE ADDITIONAL ICING.
ONE OF THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTIES IS IN QPF. THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK...WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON BEING EAST OF
CHARLESTON FRIDAY MORNING...AND STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION/LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP FOCUSED OVER EASTERN NC.
HOWEVER...MODELS HINT AT SOME MID-LEVEL FGEN BACK TO THE
WEST...WHERE MODELS HAVE VARIED TREMENDOUSLY WITH QPF FROM RUN TO
RUN...WITH THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF GOING FROM AROUND AN INCH
OVER WESTERN NC TO NEARLY NOTHING...BACK TO AN INCH AGAIN ON THE
MOST RECENT RUN.
THE BOTTOM LINE AT THIS POINT IS THAT WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX...WITH LESSER
CHANCES CLOSER TO THE TRIANGLE AND POINTS EAST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE AND POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS IS STILL LOW
GIVEN SOME OF THE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACK
AND WESTERN EXTENT/STRENGTHEN OF THE WARM NOSE.
CHILLY HIGHS IN THE 40S ON THURSDAY WILL BE SENSITIVE TO HOW QUICKLY
PRECIP SPREADS INTO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING INTO THE 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT...HOVERING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE
GREATEST. GIVEN THAT MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH PRECIP EXITING
ON FRIDAY AND THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR DAMMING AIRMASS WILL HAVE TO BE
ERODED...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AGAIN. OW FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM BY SATURDAY. MUCH MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING INTO THE 60S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK... IT APPEARS AN ALL RAIN EVENT WITH ANOTHER
SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE BY EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY. THE LACK OF A COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL PRECLUDE ANY
FROZEN PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM WEDNESDAY...
GOING FROM THE THE BEST TO WORST AVIATION CONDITIONS: FIRST... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT INT/GSO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
(THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT). WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
INTERIOR MIDATLANTIC REGION DOWN THROUGH NC WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
TODAY... AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD NC LATE
TODAY... PUSHING SOUTH THIS EVENING. NEXT... AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND RESULTING MOIST ATLANTIC INFLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR CIGS (BUT VFR VSBYS) EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AT RDU BY 09Z-12Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS HOLDING THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT... BUT AT
RWI/FAY... MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH 00Z... FOLLOWED BY A
POSSIBILITY OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES SE AND ERN NC TODAY... BRIEF
VSBYS OF 5-6 SM IN LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT DOMINATE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NNE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY... INCREASING
TO AROUND 10-12 KTS THIS EVENING BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT AS IT
DROPS SOUTHWARD. WHILE LLWS CRITERIA ARE UNLIKELY TO BE MET
TONIGHT... AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A QUICK
INCREASE IN NE WINDS TO 25-30 KTS AT AROUND 1000-1500 FT AGL AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT FAY
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW... BUT IN GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THU AFTERNOON. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN GULF THU BEFORE TRACKING EAST THEN NE
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST... BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP (POTENTIALLY
WINTRY) AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC FROM 21Z THU THROUGH
FRI EVENING. STRONG NE WINDS (ESPECIALLY AT FAY/RWI) AND LLWS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THU THROUGH FRI DUE TO THE COASTAL STORM. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE FRI NIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH SUN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT WINDS. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
220 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT... BRINGING CHILLY TEMPERATURES BACK FOR THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST... BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL PERSIST TODAY IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA... BUT
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT AND INCONSEQUENTIAL. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS
A WEAK RESIDUAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM NC NE OVER THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA... RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH AND NE SURFACE WINDS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
OUTER BANKS IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA... WHICH MODELS INDICATE WILL SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL GA
ACROSS UPSTATE/CENTRAL SC INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NC... AND HAS BEEN
SPREADING SLOWLY NE IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO BE
LARGELY SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE 150+ KT JET FROM WV OUT OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ALL GENERALLY SHOW THIS LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CWA TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER AS TO
THE QPF AND NORTHWARD EXTENT. BASED ON THE CURRENT LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSION (AROUND 15 DEG)... RAP MODEL TRENDS... AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF SATURATION BELOW 800 MB EVEN AT FAY...
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A VERY LIGHT EVENT WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/SE OF ROCKINGHAM-FORT BRAGG-GOLDSBORO. WILL
KEEP POPS HERE IN THE 20-40% RANGE... HIGHEST IN SRN SAMPSON CO.
CURRENT SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS ALONG THE PATH OF THIS LIGHT PRECIP
ARE BELOW FREEZING... BUT THESE ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 32F BY
LATE MORNING. WILL START PRECIP OUT AS LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN... CHANGING TO JUST LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT ANY ACCRUAL TO BE
MINIMAL GIVEN THE LACK OF A SOURCE OF DRY AIR TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS
OF THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE... PLUS COVERAGE AND DURATION OF NON-RAIN
PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY SORT OF
CONCERN FOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS. HIGHS FROM 45 SOUTHEAST TO 53 IN THE
FAR WRN TRIAD REGION. THE HIGH-ROOTED LIFT WILL EXIT BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON... SO WILL END PRECIP CHANCES BY THIS TIME... WITH SKIES
TRENDING TO FAIR/PARTLY CLOUDY. A BACKDOOR FRONT NOW STRETCHING JUST
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH NC
TONIGHT... WITH THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE BEING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS AS THE 1040 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ESE
TO A POSITION OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE NOSING SOUTHWARD
INTO NC. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
28-30 NORTH TO 33-35 SOUTHEAST. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 PM TUESDAY...
...WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS CONFINED TO THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY... WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW INTO OUR NW PIEDMONT TRIAD. OTHERWISE... RAIN IS EXPECTED AT
THE CURRENT TIME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE MODEL
SPREAD. EVEN THOUGH MOSTLY RAIN IS CURRENTLY FAVORED... THE EXTENT
OF THE COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION COURTESY OF THE CURRENT AND
PROJECTED HIGH TO OUR NORTH SUPPLYING THE COLD AIR IS PROBLEMATIC.
IF MODELS TREND COLDER... WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE CURRENT
SET UP... MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW COULD BE EXPECTED INTO THE
PIEDMONT. STAY INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY 12Z/THURSDAY. AS THIS MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES PUSHING EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS/AL/TN...
MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER... MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO
BE HIGH... EVEN WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS APPEARS TO BE
RELATED TO THE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE
FEATURES ALOFT. AS THE MID/UPPER LOW APPROACHES OUR REGION... MODEL
SPREAD CONTINUES HIGH. THE 12Z NAM APPEARS ALONE IN DEEPENING THE
CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN GA AND SOUTHWESTERN NC...
WHILE THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND TRACKS THE MID LEVEL LOW
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS GA AND SOUTHERN SC. FOR THE COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE... THE 00Z/EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL MODEL WAS ON THE SLOW AND
WEST SIDE OF THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... SUGGESTING THIS MODEL IS TOO
SLOW WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. SINCE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD WITH
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM... WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL THIS CHANGES.
ANOTHER EXTREMELY IMPORTANT PLAYER FOR WINTER WEATHER WILL BE
STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF ANOTHER VERY COLD ARCTIC PARENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE AND DURING THIS EVENT. AS IT APPEARS NOW... THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH (1030+ MB) AND IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION (NEW ENGLAND) TO DELIVER COLD AIR INTO OUR
DAMMING REGION INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER... MOST MODELS HAVE THE HIGH
PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTING EAST WITH DIMINISHING CAA INTO OUR DAMMING
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION EVENT). IF THIS VERIFIES... WE WOULD HAVE TO
RELY ON THE MID/UPPER LOW TO SUPPLY ENOUGH OF ITS OWN COLD AIR TO
SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION.
THE BOTTOM LINE FOR RIGHT NOW... IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME
WET SNOW MIXED IN WITH RAIN THURSDAY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER... DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS LIKELY BEING MARGINAL IN
THE UPPER 30S AT ONSET... MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. EVAPORATIVE
COOLING COULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO WET SNOW AT TIMES THURSDAY
LATE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NW... BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL IN SUPPORTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. SURFACE WET
BULB FORECASTS NEAR 32 ARE INDICATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS POSSIBLY
DAVIDSON/RANDOLPH/ORANGE/GRANVILLE COUNTIES ON THE CURRENT COLDER
MODEL SOLUTIONS (EC/NAM)... WITH READINGS ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE.
THEREFORE... PREDOMINATELY RAIN IS EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF
GREENSBORO AND ROXBORO.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LOW APPROACHES... THE
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK JUST OFFSHORE THE SC/NC
COAST FRIDAY. ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THE
MID/UPPER LOW TRACK AND STRENGTH AT THAT TIME. CURRENT MODEL BLENDS
SUGGEST THAT THE ENOUGH ATLANTIC AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE STORM
TO ENHANCE A WARM NOSE ALOFT... ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NC.
THIS STRONGLY FAVORS THE BLUE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS...
WITH LIMITED CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THE THE LATEST 12Z/OPERATIONAL EC KEEPS CAD
INTO OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION ESSENTIALLY THROUGH THE EVENT...
WITH A SLOWER SURFACE LOW TRACKING OFFSHORE OF THE SC COAST FRIDAY.
THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPIATION REMAINS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
PIEDMONT TRIAD REGION WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION... WITH
SOME WET SNOW THREAT DEEPER INTO OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION.
HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION IS VERY LOW GIVEN
THE LATEST SPREAD IN THE 12Z MODELS.
MOST LIKELY SENSIBLE WEATHER... RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING/DEVELOPING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON... POSSIBLY HOLDING
OFF UNTIL LATE DAY IF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY. RAIN POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHS UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S NW
TO SE. PERIODS OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAIN MAY BE MIXED
WITH WET SNOW IN THE FAR NW. LOWS 33-42 NW TO SE. HIGHS FRIDAY 40S
NW AND 50S EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM BY SATURDAY. MUCH MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING INTO THE 60S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK... IT APPEARS AN ALL RAIN EVENT WITH ANOTHER
SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE BY EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY. THE LACK OF A COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL PRECLUDE ANY
FROZEN PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM WEDNESDAY...
GOING FROM THE THE BEST TO WORST AVIATION CONDITIONS: FIRST... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT INT/GSO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
(THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT). WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
INTERIOR MIDATLANTIC REGION DOWN THROUGH NC WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
TODAY... AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD NC LATE
TODAY... PUSHING SOUTH THIS EVENING. NEXT... AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND RESULTING MOIST ATLANTIC INFLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR CIGS (BUT VFR VSBYS) EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AT RDU BY 09Z-12Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS HOLDING THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT... BUT AT
RWI/FAY... MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH 00Z... FOLLOWED BY A
POSSIBILITY OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES SE AND ERN NC TODAY... BRIEF
VSBYS OF 5-6 SM IN LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT DOMINATE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NNE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY... INCREASING
TO AROUND 10-12 KTS THIS EVENING BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT AS IT
DROPS SOUTHWARD. WHILE LLWS CRITERIA ARE UNLIKELY TO BE MET
TONIGHT... AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A QUICK
INCREASE IN NE WINDS TO 25-30 KTS AT AROUND 1000-1500 FT AGL AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT FAY
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW... BUT IN GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THU AFTERNOON. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN GULF THU BEFORE TRACKING EAST THEN NE
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST... BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP (POTENTIALLY
WINTRY) AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC FROM 21Z THU THROUGH
FRI EVENING. STRONG NE WINDS (ESPECIALLY AT FAY/RWI) AND LLWS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THU THROUGH FRI DUE TO THE COASTAL STORM. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE FRI NIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH SUN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT WINDS. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
937 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
KBIS WSR-88D INDICATES LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THE LATEST HRRR / RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TOWARDS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE 00Z BISMARCK SOUNDING CAME IN WARMER THAN
MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING...SO WILL KEEP THE MIX IN PLACE.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR ANY SPECIAL STATEMENTS REGARDING
THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
AREA RADARS EARLY THIS EVENING SHOW A DECREASING TREND IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. SHORT TERM MODELS (HRRR / RAP) SUGGEST MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH WILL END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...HOWEVER ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
COULD DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. WILL MONITOR TRENDS...BUT WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH
STILL ABOVE FREEZING...DECIDED TO LET ALL HEADLINES EXPIRE FOR NOW
AND NOT EXTEND THEM INTO ANY NEW LOCATIONS. MADE SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS TO CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND AMOUNT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. QUITE A FEW
REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL TODAY. RECENT RUNS OF MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP MORE
ON THE PRECIPITATION TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE...AND REALLY HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. LAST FEW RADAR SCANS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED
REFLECTIVITIES FROM AROUND KENMARE AND SHERWOOD TO RUGBY. THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY. PROBABLY SHOULD BE A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY SLEET AND PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN SLOW TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH...SO LITTLE IF
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BUT WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME
AND HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE ADVISORY.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING OVER THE AREA WILL DROP SOUTH BRINGING
COLD AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL
BE MUCH COLDER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS DRY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
AFTER A COOL DAY FRIDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION...THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TO
ALL OF THE DAKOTAS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING HOW MUCH THE
WARM AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST CAN SCOUR OUT THE EXITING ARCTIC
DOME. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP JUST BELOW ZERO FROM
BOTTINEAU TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
SOUTHWEST. A NICE WARM-UP SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE 40S...WITH 20S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
JAMES VALLEY.
SEASONAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE
TEENS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY TO THE 20S WEST.
MILD WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S CENTRAL TO AROUND 50 SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: THE WESTERN RIDGE IS INTERRUPTED BRIEFLY
OVER NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
RIDGE AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION - MAINLY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
LOW CLOUDS IN THE FORM OF MVFR / IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTH AND HAVE REACHED ALL BUT KJMS. IN THE NORTH...SOME
IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED...WITH KISN NOW BACK TO VFR. WILL
GENERALLY KEEP THE IFR /MVFR IN THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
IMPROVE LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH AS APPROPRIATE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1214 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO BLIZZARD WARNING THIS AFTN AND EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY. FRESH POWDER AND WINDS INCREASING TO
25 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB
DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WILL BE ENOUGH FOR GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN OPEN COUNTRY. A BRIEF BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME ADDING TO THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. WINTER
WX ADVY FOR THE REMAINING AREA NORTH OF HWY 200 WITH SOME BLOWING
SNOW CONCERNS THOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE AND DURATION WILL BE LESS AS
LITTLE TO NO NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED.
DID GO AHEAD WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR THE SAME AREA
4Z TO 12Z WITH THE NEXT WAVE AND ITS POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN AND ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
STATUS QUO FOR THIS UPDATE. GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS INDUCING SOME BLOWING SNOW
THIS AFTN AND EVENING COUPLED WITH A ROUND OF WAA SNOW. SOME
CONCERN WITH EXTENT OF COVERAGE OF BLOWING SNOW AND WILL MONITOR
TO SEE IF WNTR WX ADVSY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE FORECAST THINKING
FOR TODAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED...OR UPGRADED. AS OF NOW...IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE.
FOR TONIGHT...STILL EXPECT A BREAK IN SNOWFALL AND WINDS TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THEN...A BAND OF SNOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY TWO. SINCE THE
LAST DISCUSSION...HAD A CHANCE TO LOOK MORE IN DETAIL AT THIS
EVENT. THE 06Z GFS INDICATES THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PWATS WILL BE NEAR 0.5 INCH...ALONG WITH
STRONG 850MB FRONTOGENESIS. ALTHOUGH THE HI-RES MODELS
(NAM12...WRF MODELS) MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE PRECIP
PLACEMENT...THEY SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT IDEA REGARDING AMOUNTS.
THEY INDICATE AROUND 0.40 INCHES WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BAND. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850MB
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ADVECT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL...SO THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
(AND POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SOUTH OF THE SNOWFALL). THE
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE IS COMING IN SUPPORTING THE GFS PLACEMENT...SO
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. WILL RAISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WORRY
ABOUT TODAYS HEADLINES BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL HEADLINES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW...AND A FEW
SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 00Z MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT DO DIFFER WITH DETAILS. 00Z NAM IS
FURTHER NORTH/SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS...WILL FOLLOW A ECMWF/GFS
BLEND.
TODAY...THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND AND INCOMING HI-RES MODELS (MPX
WRF...RAP...HRRR) SUGGEST A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
-SN ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2 THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD BE LOWER (12:1-14:1) CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED FORCING
MECHANISM. USING THE FAVORED MODEL QPF BLEND GIVES AROUND 0.10
INCHES...AND EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL (POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES). ANTICIPATE THAT THIS SNOWFALL
WILL OCCUR IN A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD...SO RATES WILL BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING AN ADIABATIC LAYER TO 900MB...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SFC-
925MB WIND DIRECTION...AND 925MB WIND SPEEDS 30-35 KNOTS (POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO OVER 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING). THESE CONDITIONS
USUALLY LEAD TO 25-35 MPH WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY (AND
TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY).
THERE HAS BEEN SOME VERY LIGHT FRESH SNOW THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...AND AT LEAST BLOWING SNOW SEEMS POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY...WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST...AND ANOTHER
INCH OR SO OF FRESH SNOW WILL OCCUR...VISIBILITIES MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED IN BLOWING SNOW (POSSIBLY NEAR BLIZZARD IN
SOME AREAS). CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT A
LONG DURATION OF WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...BUT CERTAINLY A
BRIEF PERIOD ALONG WITH THE FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS THE MORE
FAVORED OPEN AREAS WHEN THERE IS NO FALLING SNOW (FOR
EXAMPLE...THE CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK CORRIDOR). COULD SEE THE
ADVISORY BEING EXPANDED IF WIND SPEEDS ARE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN FA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS
FURTHEST SOUTH WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP...BUT HAS BEEN VERIFYING BEST
LATELY WITH LOCATION OF PRECIP. MESOSCALE FORCING (MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS) IS STRONGER WITH THIS EVENT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CLOSELY. THINKING 1-3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...BUT
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BUT STILL 20-25 MPH. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THIS EVENT AS WELL. 850MB TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING MAY ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
BAND...LEADING TO SLEET/FZRA. ANTICIPATE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY
ON THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA...ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS. COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF SHOW SHARP
NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ZONAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC ENERGY TEMPORARILY FLATTENS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
WITHIN THIS FLOW ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL BE ALONG OR NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE LOW. WITH
THIS IN MIND...WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND POPS WHICH KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN PAINT 20 TO 30 PERCENT MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
COULD RESULT IN MIXED/FREEZING P-TYPE...BUT WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE
FOR NOW WITH RAIN/SNOW.
ON BALANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY
WITH 850 HPA VALUES ABOVE 0 C...AFTER WHICH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS WITH WIDESPREAD 40S FOR SUNDAY/
MONDAY. GIVEN OUR COLDER THAN NORMAL TRACK RECORD THUS FAR THIS
SEASON...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO 35KT AT TIMES IN THE VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE VSBYS TO FALL INTO THE IFR
RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES WHEN SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT AND SHIFT MORE
WESTERLY...WITH IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH CIGS AND SOME SNOW/MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006-014-
015-024-026-028>030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-027-054.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ007-008-016-
027-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ002-005-
006-008-013>015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR MNZ001-004-007.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
941 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
STATUS QUO FOR THIS UPDATE. GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS INDUCING SOME BLOWING SNOW
THIS AFTN AND EVENING COUPLED WITH A ROUND OF WAA SNOW. SOME
CONCERN WITH EXTENT OF COVERAGE OF BLOWING SNOW AND WILL MONITOR
TO SEE IF WNTR WX ADVSY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE FORECAST THINKING
FOR TODAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED...OR UPGRADED. AS OF NOW...IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE.
FOR TONIGHT...STILL EXPECT A BREAK IN SNOWFALL AND WINDS TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THEN...A BAND OF SNOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY TWO. SINCE THE
LAST DISCUSSION...HAD A CHANCE TO LOOK MORE IN DETAIL AT THIS
EVENT. THE 06Z GFS INDICATES THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PWATS WILL BE NEAR 0.5 INCH...ALONG WITH
STRONG 850MB FRONTOGENESIS. ALTHOUGH THE HI-RES MODELS
(NAM12...WRF MODELS) MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE PRECIP
PLACEMENT...THEY SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT IDEA REGARDING AMOUNTS.
THEY INDICATE AROUND 0.40 INCHES WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BAND. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850MB
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ADVECT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL...SO THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
(AND POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SOUTH OF THE SNOWFALL). THE
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE IS COMING IN SUPPORTING THE GFS PLACEMENT...SO
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. WILL RAISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WORRY
ABOUT TODAYS HEADLINES BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL HEADLINES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW...AND A FEW
SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 00Z MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT DO DIFFER WITH DETAILS. 00Z NAM IS
FURTHER NORTH/SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS...WILL FOLLOW A ECMWF/GFS
BLEND.
TODAY...THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND AND INCOMING HI-RES MODELS (MPX
WRF...RAP...HRRR) SUGGEST A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
-SN ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2 THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD BE LOWER (12:1-14:1) CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED FORCING
MECHANISM. USING THE FAVORED MODEL QPF BLEND GIVES AROUND 0.10
INCHES...AND EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL (POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES). ANTICIPATE THAT THIS SNOWFALL
WILL OCCUR IN A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD...SO RATES WILL BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING AN ADIABATIC LAYER TO 900MB...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SFC-
925MB WIND DIRECTION...AND 925MB WIND SPEEDS 30-35 KNOTS (POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO OVER 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING). THESE CONDITIONS
USUALLY LEAD TO 25-35 MPH WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY (AND
TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY).
THERE HAS BEEN SOME VERY LIGHT FRESH SNOW THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...AND AT LEAST BLOWING SNOW SEEMS POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY...WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST...AND ANOTHER
INCH OR SO OF FRESH SNOW WILL OCCUR...VISIBILITIES MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED IN BLOWING SNOW (POSSIBLY NEAR BLIZZARD IN
SOME AREAS). CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT A
LONG DURATION OF WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...BUT CERTAINLY A
BRIEF PERIOD ALONG WITH THE FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS THE MORE
FAVORED OPEN AREAS WHEN THERE IS NO FALLING SNOW (FOR
EXAMPLE...THE CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK CORRIDOR). COULD SEE THE
ADVISORY BEING EXPANDED IF WIND SPEEDS ARE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN FA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS
FURTHEST SOUTH WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP...BUT HAS BEEN VERIFYING BEST
LATELY WITH LOCATION OF PRECIP. MESOSCALE FORCING (MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS) IS STRONGER WITH THIS EVENT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CLOSELY. THINKING 1-3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...BUT
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BUT STILL 20-25 MPH. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THIS EVENT AS WELL. 850MB TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING MAY ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
BAND...LEADING TO SLEET/FZRA. ANTICIPATE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY
ON THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA...ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS. COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF SHOW SHARP
NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ZONAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC ENERGY TEMPORARILY FLATTENS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
WITHIN THIS FLOW ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL BE ALONG OR NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE LOW. WITH
THIS IN MIND...WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND POPS WHICH KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN PAINT 20 TO 30 PERCENT MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
COULD RESULT IN MIXED/FREEZING P-TYPE...BUT WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE
FOR NOW WITH RAIN/SNOW.
ON BALANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY
WITH 850 HPA VALUES ABOVE 0 C...AFTER WHICH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS WITH WIDESPREAD 40S FOR SUNDAY/
MONDAY. GIVEN OUR COLDER THAN NORMAL TRACK RECORD THUS FAR THIS
SEASON...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY BECOMING MVFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. THIS
MAY CAUSE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY
(KGFK). ALSO...EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS
KDVL...KGFK...KTVF THIS AFTERNOON...AND RESULTANT REDUCED VSBY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-
016-027.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-
004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
708 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE FORECAST THINKING
FOR TODAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED...OR UPGRADED. AS OF NOW...IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE.
FOR TONIGHT...STILL EXPECT A BREAK IN SNOWFALL AND WINDS TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THEN...A BAND OF SNOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY TWO. SINCE THE
LAST DISCUSSION...HAD A CHANCE TO LOOK MORE IN DETAIL AT THIS
EVENT. THE 06Z GFS INDICATES THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PWATS WILL BE NEAR 0.5 INCH...ALONG WITH
STRONG 850MB FRONTOGENESIS. ALTHOUGH THE HI-RES MODELS
(NAM12...WRF MODELS) MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE PRECIP
PLACEMENT...THEY SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT IDEA REGARDING AMOUNTS.
THEY INDICATE AROUND 0.40 INCHES WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BAND. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850MB
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ADVECT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL...SO THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
(AND POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SOUTH OF THE SNOWFALL). THE
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE IS COMING IN SUPPORTING THE GFS PLACEMENT...SO
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. WILL RAISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WORRY
ABOUT TODAYS HEADLINES BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL HEADLINES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW...AND A FEW
SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 00Z MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT DO DIFFER WITH DETAILS. 00Z NAM IS
FURTHER NORTH/SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS...WILL FOLLOW A ECMWF/GFS
BLEND.
TODAY...THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND AND INCOMING HI-RES MODELS (MPX
WRF...RAP...HRRR) SUGGEST A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
-SN ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2 THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD BE LOWER (12:1-14:1) CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED FORCING
MECHANISM. USING THE FAVORED MODEL QPF BLEND GIVES AROUND 0.10
INCHES...AND EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL (POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES). ANTICIPATE THAT THIS SNOWFALL
WILL OCCUR IN A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD...SO RATES WILL BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING AN ADIABATIC LAYER TO 900MB...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SFC-
925MB WIND DIRECTION...AND 925MB WIND SPEEDS 30-35 KNOTS (POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO OVER 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING). THESE CONDITIONS
USUALLY LEAD TO 25-35 MPH WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY (AND
TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY).
THERE HAS BEEN SOME VERY LIGHT FRESH SNOW THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...AND AT LEAST BLOWING SNOW SEEMS POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY...WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST...AND ANOTHER
INCH OR SO OF FRESH SNOW WILL OCCUR...VISIBILITIES MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED IN BLOWING SNOW (POSSIBLY NEAR BLIZZARD IN
SOME AREAS). CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT A
LONG DURATION OF WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...BUT CERTAINLY A
BRIEF PERIOD ALONG WITH THE FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS THE MORE
FAVORED OPEN AREAS WHEN THERE IS NO FALLING SNOW (FOR
EXAMPLE...THE CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK CORRIDOR). COULD SEE THE
ADVISORY BEING EXPANDED IF WIND SPEEDS ARE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN FA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS
FURTHEST SOUTH WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP...BUT HAS BEEN VERIFYING BEST
LATELY WITH LOCATION OF PRECIP. MESOSCALE FORCING (MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS) IS STRONGER WITH THIS EVENT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CLOSELY. THINKING 1-3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...BUT
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BUT STILL 20-25 MPH. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THIS EVENT AS WELL. 850MB TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING MAY ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
BAND...LEADING TO SLEET/FZRA. ANTICIPATE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY
ON THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA...ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS. COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF SHOW SHARP
NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ZONAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC ENERGY TEMPORARILY FLATTENS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
WITHIN THIS FLOW ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL BE ALONG OR NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE LOW. WITH
THIS IN MIND...WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND POPS WHICH KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN PAINT 20 TO 30 PERCENT MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
COULD RESULT IN MIXED/FREEZING P-TYPE...BUT WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE
FOR NOW WITH RAIN/SNOW.
ON BALANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY
WITH 850 HPA VALUES ABOVE 0 C...AFTER WHICH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS WITH WIDESPREAD 40S FOR SUNDAY/
MONDAY. GIVEN OUR COLDER THAN NORMAL TRACK RECORD THUS FAR THIS
SEASON...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY BECOMING MVFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. THIS
MAY CAUSE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY
(KGFK). ALSO...EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS
KDVL...KGFK...KTVF THIS AFTERNOON...AND RESULTANT REDUCED VSBY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ008-016-027.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ001-004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
650 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERN STORM MAY GRAZE THE VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA BORDER LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. MILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SYSTEM MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COLD AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...
NO REAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BEEF UP SKY
GRIDS FOR CIRRUS CANOPY ACROSS THE E THIS EVENING PER IR IMAGERY AND
OBS. LATEST HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM JUST TO S AND E OF CWA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
NOT REALLY A LOT OF CHANGE WITH REGARD TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN A
GENERAL SENSE...WITH REGARD TO THE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST INFO FROM 12Z NWP RUNS. STILL APPEARS THAT
THE FORECAST AREA ONLY GETS A GLANCING BRUSH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
FIRST...REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES. THE CONSENSUS HAS BEEN A
LEAN TOWARDS THE OP GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
THE NAM THE OUTLIER AND FURTHEST WEST. EVEN THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST WITH AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE AND
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. LARGE
SCALE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH CAROLINA
AROUND 12Z FRI...AND ONLY BRUSHES OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 280K-290K SFC/S ALL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
OVER CENTRAL VA AND POINTS FURTHER SE. ALSO APPEARS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS MAIN DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOC WITH 850MB AND 700MB
LOWS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. ALL THIS TO SAY...NOT FINDING ANY
REAL DECENT SOURCES OF DYNAMIC AND/OR SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE CWA.
CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM QPF OUTPUT IS IN SUPPORT...KEEPING
MEASURABLE QPF JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA. OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS ALSO
KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY. LATEST HRRR RUNS BRING SOME PRECIP
RIGHT UP TO THE WYOMING/MCDOWELL COUNTY AREAS OF WEST VIRGINIA.
SO...IN THE END...NO REAL DRASTIC CHANGES WITH POPS ALONG OUR SE
BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FRIDAY TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH I DID ALLOW LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE BKW AREA WHICH
IS A BIT OF AN INCREASE FROM PREV SHIFT. INHERITED MINS FROM PREV
SHIFT STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. STILL
EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY SLEET TO BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOR THE WEST VIRGINIA ZONES ROUGHLY
MCDOWELL COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. THE
VIRGINIA COUNTIES MAY REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. EVEN WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIP TONIGHT OR
EARLY TOMORROW...A HEAVY FREEZING MIST IS POSSIBLE ON AFOREMENTIONED
UPSLOPE SFC FLOW WHICH COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN A GLAZE. WILL LEAVE
FREEZING MIST/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WORDING IN HWO BUT HAVE ELECTED TO
NOT HOIST ANY HIGHLIGHTS.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS SEEING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES AT 18Z AND ENDED BY 21Z AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
NORTH WITH DEPARTING SFC LOW OFF TO THE EAST...WHICH SCOURS OUT ANY
REMAINING LLVL MOISTURE. TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S STILL
ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FROM PREV FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE REGION BETWEEN SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH WEAK
WINDS...SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATION NIGHT. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE
OF MOS GUIDANCE LOWS. A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NAM IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE GFS
AND ECMWF. WILL LAG SOME VERY SMALL POPS BEHIND THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NAM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD...WITH RIDGE REBUILDING
OVER THE U.S. AND CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND DEEPENING L/W TROUGH IN THE
E.
THE MAIN FCST ISSUE THIS PERIOD IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH MID STREAM
ENERGY AS S/W TROUGHS IN THE NRN AND MID STREAMS MOVE SEWD IN
CONCERT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT. THE GFS SHOWS A
POSITIVE TILT MID STREAM TROUGH THAT THE NRN STREAM BASICALLY FALLS
INTO...GENERATING A FLAT WAVE AT THE SFC. THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO
ITS LARGE SYSTEM SOLN...AS THE MID STREAM S/W CLOSES
OFF...GENERATING MORE VIGOROUS CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SFC.
THE GFS FLAT WAVE SOLN WOULD ENTAIL A SFC LOW TRACK FASTER AND
FARTHER S AND E...ALLOWING THE COLD AIR TO POUR SWD INTO THE AREA
WED WITH ANAFRONT PRECIPITATION. THE SLOWER...DEEPER AND FARTHER N
AND W TRACK OF THE ECMWFHIRES SFC LOW WOULD PUMP WARM AIR INTO THE
AREA TUE NT INTO WED...BEFORE TRACKING RIGHT OVER THE AREA WED
AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR WOULD THEN POUR SEWD INTO THE AREA WED
WEDNESDAY NT...AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD PULLS OUT.
DRIER...COLDER AIR THEN CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK IN EITHER CASE.
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AND WPC...A LITTLE BIAS CORRECTED
ECMWFHIRES ALSO BLENDED IN. THE FCST FOLLOWS WPC COMPROMISE...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY RAIN INCREASING WED NT AND CONTINUING
THU...FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCE FOR SHOW SHOWERS THU8 NT INTO FRI.
LASTLY...MON AND TUE LOOK DRY AND MILD AHEAD OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING THE BKW TERMINAL.
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH LLVL
MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE LOW
STRATUS TO FORM IN THESE AREAS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXACTLY
HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL BE AT BKW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
WILL INCLUDE MVFR FOR NOW.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS REACHING INTO DICKENSON COUNTY VIRGINIA ON NE
ALONG THE VA/WV BORDER WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
ALONG EASTERN SLOPES. EVEN WHERE PRECIP IS NOT MEASURED...COLD AIR
WITH NEAR-SATURATED LLVLS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY RESULT IN SOME
FREEZING MIST ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES BUT NOT ANTICIPATED TO
AFFECT KBKW ATTM.
THE BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE BY THE 15Z TIME
FRAME...WITH MVFR CIGS IMPROVING ACROSS KBKW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT COULD
VARY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING BKW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/50
NEAR TERM...50/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30/50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
357 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AND WILL FOR THE MOST PART DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE VERY CONSISTENT HRRR ON THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE RAINFALL WITH MOST AMOUNTS AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THE RAIN SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 08-09Z. WHILE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...TEMPERATURES
BELOW 900 MILLIBARS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY AND DURATION WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO COOL THIS LAYER
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. THUS AN ALL LIQUID EVENT
SHOULD BE THE RULE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR TOWARDS
SUNRISE WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN
SOME PLACES BY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD FINALLY BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN A COLD RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. A QUICK WARMUP WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME PLACES POSSIBLY PUSHING THE 80
DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR A
BIT BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO OCCUR AT
THIS TIME AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.
GENERALLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH GUIDANCE LOWS LOOKING MORE
REASONABLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 29 53 32 65 / 80 10 0 0
FSM 33 56 31 65 / 20 10 0 0
MLC 32 55 33 65 / 60 10 0 0
BVO 26 53 28 65 / 70 10 0 0
FYV 30 53 28 63 / 20 0 0 0
BYV 29 53 30 63 / 20 10 0 0
MKO 31 55 32 65 / 60 10 0 0
MIO 28 53 30 63 / 50 10 0 0
F10 30 55 34 65 / 80 10 0 0
HHW 33 56 32 65 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05
PLATE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1114 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K
FEET. A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE LIKELY FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP THEM IN CHECK HOWEVER... AND CURRENT FORECAST MAXIMUMS
CONTINUE TO APPEAR REASONABLE. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME CONCERNS THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ABOUT 21Z BEING THE EARLIEST THAT SHOWERS
COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. THIS IS
CURRENTLY WHAT WE HAVE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME... EVERYTHING ELSE
IN THE FORECAST ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK SO WILL NOT UPDATE THIS
MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR CIGS STRETCH ALONG THE ARK RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND ARE
OOZING TOWARD THE TULSA METRO SO I HAVE INSERTED SOME TEMPO GROUPS
TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY. MVFR FOG IS ALSO AFFECTING THE ARK RIVER
SITES. BOTH IMPACTS TO AVIATION SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BEYOND THAT. INCREASING MID CLOUD BY
AROUND 00Z WITH APPROACHING UPPER WAVE...WITH SOME RASN POTENTIAL
ACROSS ERN OK.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL GET A FAIRLY WARM
START TO THE DAY THANKS TO A HEALTHY DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH A LATER START TO ANY
AFTERNOON/EVENING PRECIP...WILL LEAD TO WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TRENDED WARMER...THEY STILL GENERALLY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR WET SNOW TONIGHT WITH NEGLIGIBLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WILL BE THE
WARMEST SINCE MARCH BEGAN. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER FROM SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
A STRONGER PUSH OF THE TRAILING SURFACE HIGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS JUST BEYOND
THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE VERY WARM...APPROACHING 70 DEGREES IN AT LEAST A FEW SPOTS
BOTH DAYS. THIS FORECAST MAY EVEN BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL SO
THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF FRONTAL
TIMING AND PRECEDING WIND DIRECTION TRENDS CONTINUE TO LOOK AS
FAVORABLE AS THEY DO NOW.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1057 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP THEM IN CHECK HOWEVER... AND CURRENT FORECAST MAXIMUMS
CONTINUE TO APPEAR REASONABLE. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME CONCERNS THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ABOUT 21Z BEING THE EARLIEST THAT SHOWERS
COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. THIS IS
CURRENTLY WHAT WE HAVE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME... EVERYTHING ELSE
IN THE FORECAST ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK SO WILL NOT UPDATE THIS
MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR CIGS STRETCH ALONG THE ARK RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND ARE
OOZING TOWARD THE TULSA METRO SO I HAVE INSERTED SOME TEMPO GROUPS
TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY. MVFR FOG IS ALSO AFFECTING THE ARK RIVER
SITES. BOTH IMPACTS TO AVIATION SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BEYOND THAT. INCREASING MID CLOUD BY
AROUND 00Z WITH APPROACHING UPPER WAVE...WITH SOME RASN POTENTIAL
ACROSS ERN OK.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL GET A FAIRLY WARM
START TO THE DAY THANKS TO A HEALTHY DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH A LATER START TO ANY
AFTERNOON/EVENING PRECIP...WILL LEAD TO WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TRENDED WARMER...THEY STILL GENERALLY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR WET SNOW TONIGHT WITH NEGLIGIBLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WILL BE THE
WARMEST SINCE MARCH BEGAN. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER FROM SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
A STRONGER PUSH OF THE TRAILING SURFACE HIGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS JUST BEYOND
THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE VERY WARM...APPROACHING 70 DEGREES IN AT LEAST A FEW SPOTS
BOTH DAYS. THIS FORECAST MAY EVEN BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL SO
THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF FRONTAL
TIMING AND PRECEDING WIND DIRECTION TRENDS CONTINUE TO LOOK AS
FAVORABLE AS THEY DO NOW.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1017 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
JOHNSON COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY...WITH SOME ROADS BECOMING SLICK. OBS IN THE NC SIDE HAVE
BEEN REPORTING SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. A 00Z SOUNDING FROM
UNC-ASHEVILLE SHOWS NO WARM NOSE...IT IS NEAR FREEZING ISOTHERMAL UP
TO 800 MB. THE RUC SOUNDING DEPICTION LOOKS SIMILAR. THUS WILL
ADJUST THE WEATHER GRIDS TO ADD MORE SNOW AND LESS FREEZING RAIN.
WILL ALSO ADJUST THE WSW WORDING FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
IS GENERALL ON TRACK.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JOHNSON.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: RUSSELL...WASHINGTON.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS
BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERS
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BUT SHOULD DRAW TO A CLOSE BEFORE SUNSET.
THERE STILL ARE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW BUT EXPECT THESE TO CLEAR OFF BY LATER TONIGHT. BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS...FOG...OR A HEAVY FROST AS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. MODELS ARE
KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN STEP WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND AREAS THAT
DID RECEIVE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A BIT OF EXTRA MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND ALONG WITH THE EXTRA MOISTURE
USUALLY FAVORS LOW CLOUDS OR FOG BUT THIS MAY ALSO BRING ABOUT A
PRETTY HEAVY FROST FOR SOME AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER.
HARD TO TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN AS THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH BOUNCE AROUND
THE LOCATION OF WHERE REDUCED VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP. WENT AHEAD
AND LEFT MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED
TO BE EVALUATED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER BUT STILL ONLY A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. WIND WILL TAKE A WHILE
TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT SHOULD DO SO EARLIER ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THAN THE ROLLING PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR 70 WHILE THE ROLLING
PLAINS REMAINS A BIT COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. STREAM OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ON WV/HIGH CLOUDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOULD
ARRIVE TOMORROW MORNING...ALSO HELPING TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING UP TOO MUCH DURING THE DAY.
JORDAN
&&
.LONG TERM...
FLATTENED UA RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD IN COMBINATION WITH THE RETURN
OF SFC LEE TROUGHING AND SFC SRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORM
TEMPS TO ROUND OUT THE END OF THE WEEK /70S/. ABL MIXING TO AOA 600
MB SUGGESTS AFTN W-SW WIND SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH...WHICH IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG GIVEN WIND SPEEDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY TAMED. DUE TO THE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO A BREEZY COLD
FRONT EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...DRIVEN BY
A 1030 MB SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES OF
7-10 MB PER 3 HRS SUGGEST NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH /TEMPS TO
COOL INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW 50S ON SATURDAY/. CONCURRENTLY...AN
OPEN WAVE UA DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ITS EXACT TRACK. THE
DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN TO EITHER MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD /PER THE NAM/
OR BREAK INTO TWO PIECES WHERE ONE PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND
THE OTHER PIECE TRANSLATES ACROSS NERN OLD MEXICO /PER THE GFS AND
ECMWF/. THUS...THIS SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY IS TOO FAR SW TO AFFECT
THE REGION. IF FOLLOWING THE FORMER MODEL...A RATHER LIGHT WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NRN AND NWRN
ZONES WITH -RA ELSEWHERE ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE NAME WHILST THE GFS IS ALMOST VOID OF PRECIP...LIKELY DUE TO ITS
WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE DISTURBANCE. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS APPEARS VALID ATTM...WITH BETTER CHANCES NORTH...SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FA.
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SRLY SFC REGIME WILL MAKE A
RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THUS PROMOTING A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND /HIGHS IN THE 70S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK/. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
PROGGED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS MID-WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE REGION MID-LATE WEEK...THOUGH ITS TRACK IS UP FOR
DEBATE /REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA PER THE ECMWF OR PASSING OVERHEAD
PER THE GFS/. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE BEYOND SATURDAY ATTM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 28 71 38 72 28 / 0 0 0 0 20
TULIA 26 67 37 73 30 / 0 0 0 0 20
PLAINVIEW 25 67 38 74 31 / 0 0 0 0 20
LEVELLAND 28 69 39 75 32 / 0 0 0 0 20
LUBBOCK 28 67 40 75 33 / 0 0 0 0 20
DENVER CITY 32 67 42 76 35 / 0 0 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 30 67 40 75 34 / 0 0 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 28 64 38 74 34 / 0 0 0 0 10
SPUR 25 65 39 74 36 / 0 0 0 0 10
ASPERMONT 26 65 41 74 37 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
857 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST/GRIDS THROUGH 18Z TO REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE
PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES HAVE RECENTLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW...GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. GIVEN
THAT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS GENERALLY MARGINAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...WILL GO WITH MAINLY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...BUT INCREASE
GRIDDED POPS UPWARD OF 60 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT VALUES OF LESS THAN
0.05 INCH AND A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A DUSTING TO AROUND
0.5 INCH SNOW ON SOME SURFACES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE FIRST 9
HOURS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TAF PERIOD. THINK WINDS WILL
STAY JUST BELOW AVIATION WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA AT KAMA. CIGS ARE
LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW...BUT KDHT AND KGUY WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TO SEE MVFR BASED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WITH IFR BASES NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. LIGHT PRECIP MAY FALL AT ANY OR ALL OF THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...BUT AREAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
AFTER 06/01Z...WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP AND MAKE THEIR WAY AROUND TO WSW
AND SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR.
SIMPSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY WEAK ECHO RETURNS ON RADAR BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY IS
ACTUALLY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AFTER THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING FRONT VERY WELL WHICH
LEADS TO DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TYPE IF ANY DOES FALL IN
OUR AREA. AM CURRENTLY FAVORING THE HRRR IN THE SHORT-TERM AS IT
SEEMS TO HANDLING THE FRONT THE BEST. GOING WITH THIS THOUGHT
PROCESS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE TODAY MIGHT ACTUALLY BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PAN OUT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER IF PRECIP DOES FALL
NORTH OF A CANADIAN TO DALHART LINE PRECIP TYPE COULD BE A BIT
TRICKIER. AM CURRENTLY GOING WITH A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN MIX AS
MODELS VARY ON HOW LARGE THE WARM NOSE WILL BE. ALL THAT BEING SAID
IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT...NO MATTER
WHAT FORM IT COMES DOWN IN. AFTER THE FRONT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WE WILL RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE ARE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH IT OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AGAIN
PRECIP TYPE MIGHT DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...IF IT MOVES
THROUGH AFTER WE HAVE WARMED UP ENOUGH THE AREA COULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING AND INITIAL PRECIP WOULD BE ALL RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THEN IT
COULD BE A WINTRY MIX THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT. MODELS STILL ARE NOT IN
GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW FAST AND DEEP TO MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS.
AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA JUST AFTER THIS 7 DAY FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DECREASE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
10/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
543 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE FIRST 9
HOURS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TAF PERIOD. THINK WINDS WILL
STAY JUST BELOW AVIATION WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA AT KAMA. CIGS ARE
LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW...BUT KDHT AND KGUY WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TO SEE MVFR BASED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WITH IFR BASES NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. LIGHT PRECIP MAY FALL AT ANY OR ALL OF THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...BUT AREAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
AFTER 06/01Z...WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP AND MAKE THEIR WAY AROUND TO WSW
AND SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR.
SIMPSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY WEAK ECHO RETURNS ON RADAR BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY IS
ACTUALLY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AFTER THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING FRONT VERY WELL WHICH
LEADS TO DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TYPE IF ANY DOES FALL IN
OUR AREA. AM CURRENTLY FAVORING THE HRRR IN THE SHORT-TERM AS IT
SEEMS TO HANDLING THE FRONT THE BEST. GOING WITH THIS THOUGHT
PROCESS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE TODAY MIGHT ACTUALLY BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PAN OUT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER IF PRECIP DOES FALL
NORTH OF A CANADIAN TO DALHART LINE PRECIP TYPE COULD BE A BIT
TRICKIER. AM CURRENTLY GOING WITH A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN MIX AS
MODELS VARY ON HOW LARGE THE WARM NOSE WILL BE. ALL THAT BEING SAID
IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT...NO MATTER
WHAT FORM IT COMES DOWN IN. AFTER THE FRONT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WE WILL RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE ARE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH IT OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AGAIN
PRECIP TYPE MIGHT DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...IF IT MOVES
THROUGH AFTER WE HAVE WARMED UP ENOUGH THE AREA COULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING AND INITIAL PRECIP WOULD BE ALL RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THEN IT
COULD BE A WINTRY MIX THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT. MODELS STILL ARE NOT IN
GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW FAST AND DEEP TO MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS.
AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA JUST AFTER THIS 7 DAY FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DECREASE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
09/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
331 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY WEAK ECHO RETURNS ON RADAR BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY IS
ACTUALLY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AFTER THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING FRONT VERY WELL WHICH
LEADS TO DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TYPE IF ANY DOES FALL IN
OUR AREA. AM CURRENTLY FAVORING THE HRRR IN THE SHORT-TERM AS IT
SEEMS TO HANDLING THE FRONT THE BEST. GOING WITH THIS THOUGHT
PROCESS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE TODAY MIGHT ACTUALLY BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PAN OUT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER IF PRECIP DOES FALL
NORTH OF A CANADIAN TO DALHART LINE PRECIP TYPE COULD BE A BIT
TRICKIER. AM CURRENTLY GOING WITH A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN MIX AS
MODELS VARY ON HOW LARGE THE WARM NOSE WILL BE. ALL THAT BEING SAID
IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT...NO MATTER
WHAT FORM IT COMES DOWN IN. AFTER THE FRONT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WE WILL RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE ARE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH IT OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AGAIN
PRECIP TYPE MIGHT DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...IF IT MOVES
THROUGH AFTER WE HAVE WARMED UP ENOUGH THE AREA COULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING AND INITIAL PRECIP WOULD BE ALL RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THEN IT
COULD BE A WINTRY MIX THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT. MODELS STILL ARE NOT IN
GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW FAST AND DEEP TO MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS.
AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA JUST AFTER THIS 7 DAY FORECAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DECREASE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 41 28 68 38 68 / 10 0 0 5 5
BEAVER OK 34 21 60 31 57 / 50 5 0 5 10
BOISE CITY OK 41 28 69 36 59 / 30 0 0 5 20
BORGER TX 40 30 67 41 67 / 20 0 0 5 5
BOYS RANCH TX 47 30 72 39 70 / 10 0 0 5 10
CANYON TX 45 27 68 37 70 / 5 0 0 5 5
CLARENDON TX 41 28 64 37 70 / 20 5 0 0 5
DALHART TX 43 24 70 35 66 / 10 0 0 5 10
GUYMON OK 39 25 67 34 61 / 40 0 0 5 10
HEREFORD TX 46 26 69 38 70 / 5 0 0 5 5
LIPSCOMB TX 36 20 59 33 60 / 50 5 0 5 5
PAMPA TX 36 27 61 39 61 / 20 5 0 5 5
SHAMROCK TX 37 23 59 33 66 / 50 5 0 0 5
WELLINGTON TX 40 25 60 34 70 / 60 5 0 0 5
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
09/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1142 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
SNOW BAND CONTINUES ACROSS THE ADVISORY ARE WITH THE LATEST HOURLY
TREND OF A SLIGHT SOUTHWEST SHIFT OF 1/2-1 COUNTY. CURRENT AMOUNTS
ARE IN THE 1 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE WITH SERN MN HAVING THE 2-2.5 INCH
AMOUNTS.
HAVE BEEN TORN AS AMOUNTS ARE GOING TO BE RIGHT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
OVER THE 6 INCH MARK IN AREAS ALONG THE BAND. LATEST RAP
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS HANDLING THE BAND QUITE WELL...MOVES A
FRONTOGENESIS MAX IN THE 600-700MB LAYER FROM SOUTHCENTRAL MN
WHERE MANY AREAS OF 30 PLUS DBZ ARE SEEN ON RADAR...DOWN THE BAND
AND INTO SERN MN BY ABOUT 06Z/12AM...THEN INTO SWRN WI BY
09Z/3AM. THE RAP ALSO DROPS OVER 0.50 INCHES OF LIQUID IN THE
BAND. CURRENT RATES ARE GOING TO KEEP UP AND INTENSIFY THROUGH
06-07Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. SO...LIKELY TO SEE SOME 5.5 TO 6.5
INCH AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS OF SERN MN INTO EXTREME NERN IA AND
INTO SWRN WI.
HAVE UPDATED THE SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS AND POSTED THOSE WITH AN AXIS
OF 5.5 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MAIN BAND. WITH LITTLE WIND AND MAINLY
A LATER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATION PERIOD...ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS BEYOND THE SNOW ARE MINIMAL. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO ALLOW
FOR A HIGH END WEATHER ADVISORY...MORE IN LINE WITH IMPACTS TO THE
PUBLIC. CERTAINLY...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS...BUT LIFE
THREATENING WARNING IMPACTS DONT SEEM TO BE AT HAND. NO CHANGES TO
HEADLINES WILL BE MADE. COORDINATED THIS WITH NWS MKX/MPX WHO ARE
ALSO AFFECTED BY THE BAND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
JUST A FEW WORDS ON THE INCOMING SNOW. STARTING TO SEE JUST IN THE
LAST MINUTES SOME NICE FILLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN 30 PLUS
DBZ BAND ACROSS SRN MN. THERE IS A NICE LAYER /200-300 MB/ OF
SLANTWISE AND WEAK UPRIGHT INSTABILITY /UPRIGHT IN IA MAINLY/
ABOVE THE FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS GOOD
FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS. LATEST TRENDS IN THE HRRR RUNS ARE
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE NORTHERN 3 INCH SNOW LINE...BUT
VERY CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY AREA.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE FROM A FORECAST STANDPOINT IS IF THE HIGHEST
ECHO BAND WILL BE SLIGHTLY TRANSITORY OR LOCK IN THE BROADER
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. IF IT LOCKS...WE WILL LIKELY SEE 6 INCH
AMOUNTS. OVERALL IT SEEMS A BROADER BAND /4-5 COUNTIES N-S...SIMILAR
TO ADVISORY/ WITH PULSING INTO THE 30 PLUS DBZ RANGE WITHIN THAT
WOULD OCCUR IN THE FRONTOGENESIS AREA. CURRENT RADAR HAS A VERY
NARROW 1-2 COUNTY WIDE BAND...WITH LITTLE SNOW NORTH AND SOUTH OF
IT...SO LOOKING FOR BROADENING FOR CURRENT FORECAST VERIFY.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED ON EVOLUTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 21Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS FLOW...THE MOST NOTABLE
FEATURE IS A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS / WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS SUPPORTED SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES HAVE DROPPED TO 3/4 MILE WITH EVEN ONE 1/4 MILE OBSERVED AT
LINTON NORTH DAKOTA. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SNOW...STUCK
BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SEEN ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING.
THESE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INVERSION TRAPPING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR HAS ONLY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TEENS
TO LOW 20S. STILL...THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN IT HAS BEEN AS OF
LATE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS AROUND THE REGION SHOWED AMOUNTS
OF 0.1" OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AROUND 0.25" OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...0.3-0.4" WHERE THE SNOW WAS FALLING AND 0.5" IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS EVENING...CAUSING SNOW
TO SPREAD IN AND DEVELOP. SIMULTANEOUSLY...MODELS SUGGEST THE HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NEBRASKA WILL GET ADVECTED NORTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR MORE QPF PRODUCTION FROM THE FORCING.
ANOTHER FEATURE AIDING IN MORE QPF IS SOME NEGATIVE EPV PROGGED ON
TOP OF THE F-GEN CIRCULATION...LEADING TO BANDING.
LOCATION...THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED THROUGH THE EVENING. HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED THE BULK OF
THE SNOW TRAVERSING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF
I-94. ON THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE 04.12Z GFS WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF THE
SNOW SOUTHWEST OF LA CROSSE. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW WHICH IS
GENERALLY THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CONCURS WITH EXTRAPOLATION OF
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS.
TIMING...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA BETWEEN 22-03Z WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...THEN EXIT NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 08-12Z WEDNESDAY.
AMOUNTS...04.12Z NAM/GFS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR UPWARD TREND IN QPF
AND THIS FORECAST HAS DONE THE SAME. DID NOT GO FULLY TOWARDS THEIR
AMOUNTS SEEING LIGHTER QPF FROM THE RAP...BUT AN UPWARD TREND IS
NEEDED. SREF QPF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A 0.25 INCH IS LIKELY...BUT
THERE ARE EVEN A FEW MEMBERS SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF A 0.5 INCH.
SHOULD THESE PAN OUT WE WOULD END UP WITH WARNING CRITERIA. RIGHT
NOW...WITH COBB DATA SUGGESTING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS BETWEEN 13-16
TO 1...THINKING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 3-5 INCHES SOUTH AND WEST
OF LA CROSSE. A FEW 6 INCH AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
NEGATIVE EPV. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASE QUICKLY HEADING TO THE NORTHEAST
FROM WINONA TO LA CROSSE NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER
AIR BEING SUCKED INTO THE F-GEN CIRCULATION. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST
UNCERTAIN ALONG AN AXIS FROM WINONA TO LA CROSSE WHERE ANYWHERE FROM
1 TO 5 INCHES SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.
AFTER THE SNOW EXITS...MUCH OF WEDNESDAY LOOKS QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER
WHICH WITH SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SOME WEAK OMEGA RESULTING FROM
DIURNAL HEATING...HAVE ADDED SOME FLURRIES. BULK OF THE FLURRY
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
04.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET ALL DEPICT A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT DROP THROUGH ONTARIO
AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS US BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO
PUT SOME SPEED BUMPS IN THE MODERATION.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS ONTARIO ON FRIDAY HELPS
PROPEL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY BLOWING OF THE FRESH SNOW WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE TO NEAR 30 ON THURSDAY. INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
SHOULD LIMIT SOME TEMPERATURE FALL THURSDAY EVENING...WITH RISING
TEMPS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FOLLOWING A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE...READINGS SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE
TEMPERATURE ISSUES...FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE PRECIPITATION. MUCH OF THE DEEPER SYNOPTIC FORCING
IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...BUT GIVEN THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND
LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO BE AROUND...A NEED EXISTS FOR SOME 20-30
PERCENT CHANCES. GIVEN A WARM LAYER PRESENT ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHAT
PRECIP DOES OCCUR COULD EITHER BE LIQUID...SLEET OR SNOW WITH THE
SNOW PROBABILITY HIGHEST TOWARDS TAYLOR COUNTY WITH DEEPER COLD AIR.
SINCE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIGHT...KEPT THE LIQUID FORM AS
FREEZING DRIZZLE / DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THERE
TOO COULD BE ISSUES WITH LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...FAVORING A
DRIZZLE ROUTE.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE A BIT TRICKY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
THE 04.12Z GFS PERSISTS ON DROPPING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT...SENDING A SURGE OF COOLER AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH TAKES UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT TO GET OUT OF HERE. THE
ECMWF...GEM AND UKMET ON THE OTHER HAND CONTINUE TO SAY THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STAYS MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND TRACKS QUICKER TO THE
EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH WARMER SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN EACH
MODEL GROUP HAS STUCK TO THEIR GUNS...HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW A
MODEL CONSENSUS AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
GROUP FLINCHES...THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE RAPIDLY TRENDED COLDER
OR WARMER.
MONDAY REMAINS MOST CONFIDENT TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 6-8C PER ECMWF. PRESENTLY
HAVE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT THESE MAY NEED
TO BE INCREASED MORE...DEPENDING ON HOW SUNDAY PLAYS OUT.
A COOL DOWN THEN ENSUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. INCLUDED SOME 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCES FOR THIS TROUGH. LIMITED MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN
THE LOW CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
SNOW TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS
WITH A SLOW IMPROVING TREND. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
FOUND AFTER 12Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ041-
053>055-061.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ086>088-
094>096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1053 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH FRESH SNOW PLAYING HAVOC
WITH TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS FLUCTUATING ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO AS SEEN AT GREEN BAY. MID CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND INCREASING GRADIENT EXPECTED TO LESSEN TREND. TRIED TO
SHOW IN TEMP GRIDS WITH UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHTS SNOWS EXITING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LAST LITTLE AREA OF FLURRIES IS MOVING INTO
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN OFF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT
CLOUDS STRETCH BACK ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN WISCONSIN TEMPORARILY CLEARED OUT
THIS MORNING THOUGH ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH STRATUS
PUSHING IN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MID CLOUDS FLOWING IN AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM...WITH FORCING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND MID-LEVEL FGEN...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SNOW OVER SE NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SNOW IS FOLLOWING THE
MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE WHETHER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SNOW PASSES OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND THE TEMPERATURES NEXT.
TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE THERMAL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POSITIONED FROM FAR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE BULLISH
IN PRODUCING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WITHIN THE BAND OF SNOW...BUT
GENERALLY JUST BRUSH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
DIGGING SOUTH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL CAUSE A HUDSON BAY HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTH...AND ADVECT VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR...HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY WITH LAKE
ICE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN. THIS DRY AIR ALSO SUPPORTS KEEPING THE
BAND OF SNOW SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO WILL JUST KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER WOOD AND WAUSHARA COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES TO OCCUR LATE IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT FROM NE TO SW WITH THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR. WITH
WINDS EXPECTING TO DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
OVER N-C AND FAR NE WISCONSIN. STILL THINK TEMPS IN E-C WISCONSIN
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME TANKING DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE NE WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...THE DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL TEMPS COOL OFF A COUPLE DEGREES COMPARED TO
TODAY...SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS WITH A FEW
LOW 20S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
THE AREA WILL FINALLY COME OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE WITH TEMPS
APPROACHING NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...AND LIKELY AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY...THEN A RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
EXPECTED (BUT NOT AS COLD AS START OF MARCH). THERE WILL BE A FEW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SHOTS OF WAA...FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES...A MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE IDENTIFYING THE
"WARMEST" DAYS AND BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR A DRY BUT COLD NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. COMBINATION OF
DRY AIR...VEERING WINDS...SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...AND ICE
COVER ON LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL...SO
ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES...BUT PREFER TO
KEEP ANY FLURRY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN
DEVELOP WILL END AS WINDS TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WAA BEGINS TO RAMP UP ON THURSDAY...MAINLY ALOFT...AS 850MB TEMPS
ATTEMPT TO FINALLY REACH THE 0C MARK. INCREASING MOISTURE IS ALSO
EXPECTED...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY NOW LOOKS DRY FOR THE AREA...AS MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL ALSO BACK OFF ON
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI...BUT KEEP
LIKELY POPS GOING OVER THE NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACH.
BEST MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING STAY ACROSS THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP FOR
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS
ACROSS THE AREA...FEEL AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO
COVER ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR...PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS ABOVE 0C AIR
BRIEFLY PUSHES OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLEET AND SNOW AS THE MAIN PRECIP TYPES TO COVER THE MIXED
PRECIP CHANCE. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS. PREFER TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT AND ALLOW THE MODELS TO
SHOW A STRONGER SIGNAL. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH LOWER TOTALS AS YOU MOVE
SOUTH. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN LOOK FOR CAA TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS DO SHOW A
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT ALL BUT THE GFS KEEP THE AREA DRY AND WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE DRY SOLUTION AND NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP CHANCES. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...THEN MODELS VARY GREATLY
FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF/GEM WOULD FAVOR HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR
40...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS TEMPS IN THE TEENS. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK
TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME RAIN MIX IN WITH THE SNOW...BUT
THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS TO CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WHILE
DRY ARCTIC AIR/HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. MID CLOUDS WITH CLIPPER SYSYTEM MOVING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME LOWER CLOUDS SEEN FAR NORTHEAST WI...EARLIER MOISTURE
TRAPPED BY INVERSON NOW SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST AS NORTHEAST
FLOW INCREASES. HAVE ADDED CIG TO RHI...THOUGH ONLY GOING
SCATTERED GRB/ATW/MTW. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WILL EXIST TONIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...THEN EAST BY LATE WED AFTN...BUT THINKING THE VERY DRY
AIR AND ICE OVER THE LAKE MAKES THE CHANCE VERY SMALL. &&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........TE
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......TE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
319 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WARP AROUND THE
LOW AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 00Z SPC WRF INDICATES RAIN
DURING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE 05Z HRRR ALSO SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN
COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF TODAY. THIS RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA. CLOUDINESS AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.
SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND THIS SHOULD
REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS SUPPORT
ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AND THIS APPEARS CORRECT SINCE WARMER AIR
FROM THE ATLANTIC HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED BETWEEN THE LINGERING WEDGE
RIDGE AND COASTAL LOW. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD.
BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE JUST BELOW THE LAKE WIND CRITERIA LATER THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING LOW SHOULD END EARLY TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT RAIN...LIGHT WIND...AND DIURNAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG LATE. WE USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY.
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE WITH HIGHS NEAR 70.
THE DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NAM SHOWS MORE OF A MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. WE KEPT THE
FORECAST CONSISTENT AND KEPT THE POP LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GREATER SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT. EXPECT
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS ARE AFFECTING THE
TAF LOCATIONS. AS RAIN CONTINUES...AND LOW LEVEL AIR BECOMES MORE
SATURATED...CIGS HAVE FALLEN TO IFR LEVELS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT BEFORE EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NE WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED BY RAINFALL.
RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR JUST SCTD
CLOUDS BY 00Z SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
328 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
328 AM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK...POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING LATER THIS MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY BECOME BKN/OVC BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS MAY
HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TODAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL TAKE PLACE WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS
NORTHERN MO/SOUTHWESTERN IA ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 30S. THUS HAVE
CONTINUED WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/
MID 40S...PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THEN
POSSIBLE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 FAR SOUTH WHERE SNOWPACK HAS MELTED.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...
MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER A QUICK DROP
WITH SUNSET...TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 30S UNTIL
FROPA. ONCE WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE...COLDER AIR OVER THE ICE PACK
COULD USHER IN SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR THAN MIGHT OTHERWISE BE
EXPECTED. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PRECIP TYPE QUICKLY SWITCHING
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP TYPE
MIXES WITH SOME SLEET OR SURFACE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING BEFORE
PRECIP SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW. HAVE MAINTAINED JUST RAIN TO SNOW IN
THE FORECAST BUT LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE MIX.
GEM/ECMWF/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BAND OF LIGHT QPF
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF/TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THIS FALLING AS SNOW. THUS
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO OR AROUND AN INCH LOOK ON TRACK THOUGH
CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC AMOUNTS IS A BIT LOWER DUE TO SURFACE TEMPS
AND SNOW/WATER RATIOS. SNOW COULD BE RATHER WET AS IT BEGINS WITH
SOME INITIAL MELTING.
THIS PRECIP SHIFTS SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE HELD TEMPS CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WARMING THEM A FEW DEGREES. BUT IF THE HIGH
SPEEDS UP AND FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY FASTER...WARMER AIR ALOFT
MAY KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AND THIS
TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TOWARD WARMER MAV NUMBERS AND
THIS MAY END UP STILL BEING TOO COOL...CURRENTLY MID/UPPER 30S
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.
GEM/ECMWF ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS INTO THE
+10C TO +12C RANGE FOR MONDAY AND MADE NO CHANGES TO GOING HIGHS
OF MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH AS THESE APPEAR ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND ITS A
BIT EARLY FOR SPECIFIC TIMING BUT TEMPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
STAY MILD AND THERE COULD BE QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE CWA OR
NEARBY ON TUESDAY. POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
WILL BE BACK IN THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. DURING THIS
SAME TIME PERIOD...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS AND SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE WEDNESDAY
TIME PERIOD. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH A PERIOD OF
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH THE COLD FRONT...SIMILAR TO TONIGHTS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* SW WINDS OVER 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
* CHC FOR A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIP LATE THIS EVE INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT
BEFORE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW TOWARDS
DAYBREAK SAT.
* WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SAT.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN CONTROL MUCH OF
THU WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. THIS
WILL ENABLE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE FRIDAY WITH SOME SPORADIC
GUSTINESS OVER 15 KT POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL EASE ITS WAY
ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN ON FRI EVE. THIS FRONT HAS
MORE ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS...THAT IS THE FORCING FOR PRECIP IS
LOCATED BEHIND THE ACTUAL SURFACE WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO COOL IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND IF PRECIP CAN HAPPEN EARLY
ENOUGH IT COULD BE RAIN OR ICE PELLETS BUT WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT.
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH COOLING SHOULD OCCUR FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BE SNOW
WHEN THE STRONGER FORCING MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE PRESENTLY FAVORED TO BE
UP TO AN INCH AT MOST.
IN ADDITION...WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST...THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE MORE FAVORED TO TURN NORTH NORTHEAST OR EVEN
NORTHEAST AT CHICAGOLAND AIRPORTS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE LAKE
MICHIGAN INFLUENCE. WITH THIS...SPEEDS ARE ALSO FAVORED TO COME UP
OVER 10 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING SAT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH TODAY THEN MEDIUM AFTER.
* MEDIUM IN SNOW OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT WHILE LOW ON LOWEST
VISIBILITY AND CIG DURING THE SNOW. MEDIUM ON START TIME.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...CHANCE SNOW...MAINLY IN THE MORNING...PERIODS OF MVFR
TO IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. VFR/WX NIL OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN DAYTIME. CHANCE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. IFR
CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.
MTF/KJB
&&
.MARINE...
220 AM CST
THE PATTERN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO MORE ACTIVE
AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
NEXT WEEK. BY TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL ADVANCE TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND BRING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD. WHILE THE LOW IS NOT MOVING THAT QUICKLY...THE FRONT
SHOULD PROGRESS NICELY DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT AS ANAFRONTS OFTEN
CAN THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS
STATES SATURDAY BUT ITS CENTER WILL EVOLVE MORE SOUTH THAN EAST
AS AN ACTIVE PACIFIC JET ADVANCES EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. THIS WILL STEER TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS QUICKLY EASTWARD
WITH EACH FAVORED TO PASS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...ONE SUNDAY
AND THE OTHER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT. WITH EACH WILL COME
WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH SO MUCH OF THE LAKE BEING ICE
COVERED...AND SNOW ON TOP OF THAT ICE...A STOUT INVERSION IS
FAVORED. SO TO WHAT DEGREE GUSTS CAN REACH THE SURFACE IS
CHALLENGING. AT THIS POINT THE FIRST SYSTEM WOULD BE MORE FAVORED
TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT GUSTS BELOW GALES
IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS COULD END UP
BEING CLOSE TO AT LEAST TEMPORARY GALES.
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE FROM THURSDAY REVEALED THE LAKE IS MAINLY
ICE COVERED WITH THE NATIONAL ICE CENTER INDICATING THAT IS THE
CASE OVER 90 PERCENT OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO WAVE FORECASTS ARE ONLY
FOR A SMALL PART OF THE OPEN WATER AND CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT WAVES
IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE FORECAST.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
304 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 304 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday
Surface ridge axis lingering over the CWA early this morning.
Under clear skies and light winds radiational cooling has dropped
temps near dewpoints in low/mid 20s and allowed light fog in a 2-5
mile range to form. A peek out the front window shows this has
deposited a thick layer of frost on cars in the parking lot.
Upstream, a cold front and unorganized low pressure complex
stretched from northern MN back into central NEB.
As this front shifts SE towards NW IL by this evening, warm
advection ahead of it will bring the warmest readings of the week
with widespread upper 40s/lower 50s highs, and even some mid 50s
in the far south and southwest. Exception will be where thicker
snowpack resides over the far northern CWA where highs will be
limited to the mid 40s. Precip chances increase especially after
midnight over the NW, where a zone of post-frontal frontogenetic
forcing and lift in the entrance region of a 90 kt jet over the
Great Lakes, initially produces a mix until evaporative cooling
and low level cold advection transitions to a clean snow
changeover after 09Z. A couple models show a corridor of
maximized lift over the far NW CWA where 0.10-0.15 QPF is
possible, which would translate to around an inch of wet snow
mainly north of PIA. As boundary layer temps rise through the
morning under increased mid level cold advection, a rain/snow mix
looks likely for the central CWA to near I-72, with rain to the
south. Where snow does fall surface temperatures above freezing
will prevent any accumulation. QPF for these areas looks to be
under a tenth of an inch. Any remaining precip quickly exits SE IL
by early evening, as incoming surface ridge from the northwest
dries things out.
This ridge sinks south of the region on Sunday, with return
flow/warm advection rebounding readings back up closer to normal.
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday
By late in the weekend and early next week a strong branch of the
northern jet along the Canadian border temporarily flattens the
mid level flow over the central US allowing Pacific air to bathe
the region on Monday. Southwest flow on the warm side of a clipper
passing through the northern Great Lakes will draw the Plains
thermal ridge up into the area, with 850 mb temps getting up to
around +10C for the first time in quite a while. This should yield
widespread upper 50s/lower 60s highs.
A cold front trailing south from the above mentioned clipper
shifts into the region on Tuesday, while more significant energy
drops into a developing central Rockies trough. As expected at
this range models show a large spread in location/strength of
possible phasing of northern and southern streams for a
potentially significant precip event in the central US for
midweek. ECMWF continues to be most aggressive in phasing and
tapping cold air off Arctic high north of Lake Superior for a
potential late winter storm over parts of the Midwest or Ohio
Valley. Of note, 00Z GFS/GEM have backed off on this possibility
which leads to higher uncertainty for this portion of the forecast.
Consensus chance pops for rain/snow seem prudent at this point.
Beyond this potential system, the upper air pattern reverts to a
familiar ridge/west trough/east configuration which places the
area back into a cooler northwest flow regime through Thursday.
This may be short-lived though as some signs of zonal flow
becoming established to our west by the end of next week.
25
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1152 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
Southerly flow is still expected to develop across the central
Illinois terminals late tonight into early Friday. However, winds
have mostly died off across the area right now. The light winds
have combined with mostly clear skies and low temp/dew point
spreads to produce patchy fog. This may continue to be a problem
through the night, but confidence in how thick the fog will be
low. However, the latest HRRR model runs suggest patchy dense fog
is not out of the question. That being said, do not have enough
confidence to include the thicker fog at this time. Aside from the
fog, VFR conditions should prevail. A cold front is expected reach
KPIA, KBMI, and KSPI by the Friday evening, resulting in a wind
shift to the northwest and thicker VFR cigs.
Bak
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1153 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
238 PM CST
BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...DESPITE THE SFC RIDGE BEING CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE GRADIENT IS STILL LACKING OVER NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10-15KT
FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A CHANNEL OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS TRYING TO PUSH EAST INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...HOWEVER STEADY EROSION HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE FROM THE DRY
AIR LOCKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER UPSTREAM AN ELONGATED
TROUGH HAS PUSHED INTO THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. BETWEEN THE SFC
RIDGE AND TROUGH THE GRADIENT IS MUCH TIGHTER AND HAS PRODUCED GOOD
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING
INTO THE 20-30MPH RANGE.
AN INTERESTING FEATURE HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER CHICAGO. DUE TO
CONSIDERABLE ICE COVERAGE ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND WINDS FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST...DOWNTOWN CHICAGO HAS ACTUALLY HAD AN ICE BREEZE
AND HAS HELPED TO KEEP DOWNTOWN MUCH COOLER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MID/UPR 20S. WHILE FURTHER INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM
TO ARND 30 DEGREES.
SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FLOATING OVERHEAD.
TEMPS WILL RADIATE INTO THE LOW/MID TEENS.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE PROVIDING SOME INFLUENCE...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE DRIFTING EAST TOWARDS
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING...TEMPS WILL BE PUSHING WARMER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
LIKELY REACHING THE LOW 40S FOR NUMEROUS LOCATIONS. MANY OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS ARE PROGGING AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF 4 TO 6 DEG C
LIFTING OVERHEAD MIDDAY. ALL OF THIS IS SIGNALING TEMPS WARMING
ABOVE SEASONAL CONDS FOR A CHANGE...WITH SOME AREAS SOUTH OF LASALLE
TO KANKAKEE REACHING THE UPR 40S. UNFORTUNATELY THIS DOES NOT APPEAR
TO LAST VERY LONG...SO ENJOY THE WARMTH.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST FRIDAY EVENING...HOWEVER
EXPECT ENOUGH MID-LVL RIDGING TO MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND WITH
A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION...SO HAVE PUSHED BACK POPS UNTIL AFT 00Z.
COULD ACTUALLY SEE THIS BEING CLOSER TO 03Z SAT. FORCING DOES
INCREASE WITH LAPSE RATES STEEPENING BETWEEN 6-12Z SAT. WITH PRECIP
DEVELOPING...SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT THE ONSET PRECIP MAY FALL AS
LIQUID THEN QUICKLY WET BULB DOWN AND PUSH P-TYPE OVER TO ALL SNOW.
WITH THE INCREASE IN FORCING/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...A PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE AFT 6Z SAT AND COULD EASILY PRODUCE UP
TO 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF A LASALLE TO EVANSTON LINE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD UP SLIGHTLY LONGER AND DELAY THE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...SO SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY HOVER AROUND ONE HALF
INCH. TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO MID 20S.
ANOTHER SFC RIDGE IS POISED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA
SATURDAY MORNING AND HELP TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTN. IT DOES APPEAR CURRENTLY THAT THE
PUSH OF DRY AIR WILL BE A LITTLE SLUGGISH...SO CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER
THRU SAT AFTN. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK
SOMEWHAT...WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW 30S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SECONDARY MID-LVL TROUGH WILL BE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST/SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SAT NGT....HOWEVER EXPECT ENOUGH DRY AIR TO
LINGER FROM THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE THAT DRY AIR WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE SAT NGT THRU SUN. UNFORTUNATELY TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SAT NGT WITH CLOUDS THINNING. DRY
AIR WILL LINGER THRU SUN AS WELL...UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE P-CLOUDY
CONDS TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 30S. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT TEMPS COULD WARM FURTHER...POSSIBLY REACHING 40 DEG
SUN AFTN.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CASE OF GOOD NEWS AND
BAD NEWS. FIRST THE GOOD NEWS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL START OUT
FEATURING WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE ONE OF DOWNSLOPING MILD AIR OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN AN
ABOVE NORMAL H5 HEIGHT FIELD. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS IN ABOVE CLIMO 850 TEMPS ADVECTING IN
FROM THE WEST...POTENTIALLY +10C OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER AND 925
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW
COVER REMAINS GOING INTO THE DAY...THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE 50S/IF NOT WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE SOUTHERN CWA AND AT
AT LEAST 45-50 NORTHERN CWA.
NOW ONTO THE BAD NEWS. ITS LIKELY THAT THE TASTE OF SPRING ON MONDAY
WILL UNFORTUNATELY BE SHORT-LIVED IN AS THE UPPER PATTERN WILL YET
AGAIN AMPLIFY AND FAVOR STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH IN EASTERN NOAM. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE BACK IN STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE
DIFFERING ON TIMING. ALSO THERE IS NOW FAIRLY DECENT OPERATIONAL AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AGREEMENT IN A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING SOMEWHERE
OVER THE REGION AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN. PRECIP COULD START
AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT BASED ON FASTER OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY AS PER THE SLOWER
GUIDANCE. TRACK WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE SEE MUCH PRECIP AT ALL AND
ALSO IF WE DO WHETHER ITS PRIMARILY RAIN OR A RAIN TO SNOW SETUP.
THUS ITS WAY TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS...BUT THIS PERIOD WILL BE ONE TO
WATCH. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO LINGER BEYOND
DAY 7...KEEPING COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MID MARCH LOCKED
IN OVERALL. WE JUST CANT SEEM TO SHAKE THE NEVER ENDING WINTER OF
2013-14 IT SEEMS.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SW WINDS OVER 10 KT FRI AFTERNOON.
* CHC FOR A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIP LATE FRI EVE INTO EARLY FRI
OVERNIGHT BEFORE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW
TOWARDS DAYBREAK SAT.
* WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT FRI PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SAT.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN IN CONTROL MUCH OF
THU WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. THIS
WILL ENABLE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE FRIDAY WITH SOME SPORADIC
GUSTINESS OVER 15 KT POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL EASE ITS WAY
ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN ON FRI EVE. THIS FRONT HAS
MORE ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS...THAT IS THE FORCING FOR PRECIP IS
LOCATED BEHIND THE ACTUAL SURFACE WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO COOL IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND IF PRECIP CAN HAPPEN EARLY
ENOUGH IT COULD BE RAIN OR ICE PELLETS BUT WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT.
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH COOLING SHOULD OCCUR FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BE SNOW
WHEN THE STRONGER FORCING MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE PRESENTLY FAVORED TO BE
UP TO AN INCH AT MOST.
IN ADDITION...WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST...THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE MORE FAVORED TO TURN NORTH NORTHEAST OR EVEN
NORTHEAST AT CHICAGOLAND AIRPORTS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE LAKE
MICHIGAN INFLUENCE. WITH THIS...SPEEDS ARE ALSO FAVORED TO COME UP
OVER 10 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING SAT.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY FRI.
* MEDIUM IN SNOW OCCURRING LATE FRI NIGHT WHILE LOW ON LOWEST
VISIBILITY AND CIG DURING AS WELL AS START TIME.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...CHANCE SNOW...MAINLY IN THE MORNING...PERIODS OF MVFR
TO IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. VFR/WX NIL OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/WX NIL.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN DAYTIME. CHANCE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. IFR
CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.
MTF/KJB
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CST
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. FARTHER
WEST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO FRIDAY AND INTO QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
INCREASING IN SPEED INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE (HIGHEST NORTH) LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HIGH AND THE APPROACHING LOW AND COLD FRONTAL TROUGH. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE
FRONT...BECOMING ELONGATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE WEST
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES
INTO MONDAY.
AFTERNOON POLAR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONSIDERABLE ICE COVER
OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN 1/3 AND THE NORTHERN
QUARTER OF SO. ICE COVERAGE OR SHORT FETCH DUE TO NARROW CHANNELS OF
OPEN WATER SHOULD LIMIT WAVE DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...HAVE OMITTED WAVE FORECASTS FOR
NORTHERN LM OPEN WATERS...AND LOCAL IL/IND NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH
APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY ICED-OVER.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1152 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 859 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
A ridge of high pressure at the surface and increasingly neutral
flow aloft will provide quiet weather across central and southeast
Illinois through the night. Winds are beginning to trend southerly
on the back side of the surface ridge, a fact that should help to
keep overnight lows a little warmer than last night. However,
these southerly winds will be offset to some degree by the mostly
clear skies and better radiational cooling scenario than earlier
today.
Going forecast is in good shape overall. Only plan a few tweaks to
the hourly trends for the rest of the night.
Bak
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1152 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
Southerly flow is still expected to develop across the central
Illinois terminals late tonight into early Friday. However, winds
have mostly died off across the area right now. The light winds
have combined with mostly clear skies and low temp/dew point
spreads to produce patchy fog. This may continue to be a problem
through the night, but confidence in how thick the fog will be
low. However, the latest HRRR model runs suggest patchy dense fog
is not out of the question. That being said, do not have enough
confidence to include the thicker fog at this time. Aside from the
fog, VFR conditions should prevail. A cold front is expected reach
KPIA, KBMI, and KSPI by the Friday evening, resulting in a wind
shift to the northwest and thicker VFR cigs.
Bak
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
Quiet weather prevails over central through southeast Illinois early
this afternoon as high pressure holds to our northeast. Quite a
contrast in temperatures depending on snow cover, with readings in
the lower 40s over parts of west central Illinois with no snow on
the ground, to the mid and upper 20s over the northern areas of
the CWA where the deepest snow cover was located. The band of stratus
clouds that was just west of the Mississippi River earlier this
morning has edged further to the northwest and has dissipated quite
a bit from earlier today, while a thicker deck of altocumulus and
cirrus was tracking southeast into central Illinois.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday
The main forecast challenge will be with temperatures over the next
several days and precip type later Friday night into Saturday morning
as a weak upper level wave and attendant frontal boundary pushes across
our area.
High pressure shifting slowly away from our area over the next 24
hours will continue to control our weather through Friday. Winds will
continue to shift more into a southerly direction tonight and then
increase some on Friday ahead of the aforementioned frontal boundary.
This should allow a nice warmup most areas Friday afternoon with even
our northern counties where the deeper snow cover was located warming
into the low to mid 40s, while further south, afternoon temperatures
will climb into the low to mid 50s. Weak upper level shortwave forecast
to track to our north Friday night into Saturday dragging a cold front
thru the area. Stronger low to mid level forcing mainly post frontal
with this system with moisture profiles not very impressive which will
continue to warrant chance POPs late Friday evening thru the day
on Saturday. Ensemble forecast soundings suggest more of a rain or snow
threat in the evening, with the threat going more over to light snow
by Saturday morning, especially across the north. Will continue
with chance POPs Saturday as the upper wave shifts off to our northeast
and the frontal boundary settles south of our area. Mainly a snow and
rain threat north, with forecast soundings supporting mostly rain in
the southeast. Upper wave should be far enough to our east to take most
of the precip out of the forecast later Saturday evening over our far
southeast counties.
Quiet weather returns to the region on Sunday with Pacific high
pressure settling over our area for 24 hours bringing afternoon
temperatures close to normal most areas as winds turn more into the
southwest by afternoon.
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday
A fast moving northern stream wave on Monday will track well to our
north with an increasing southwest flow at the low levels helping
to push temperatures above normal for a change over central thru
southeast Illinois. Will trend closer to the ECMWF guid for Monday
afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 50s far north
to the lower 60s west and south.
The mild weather will continue into Tuesday, however, a stronger
shortwave is forecast to amplify as it drops southeast into the
central Plains on Tuesday, and then phases with a cutoff low (as
depicted on the latest ECMWF model) over the southern Plains
Tuesday night. At this point, the ECMWF is the only model showing
this phasing process occurring to our south late Tuesday night
while other models indicating the northern stream would become
the dominant trof with very little if any phasing occurring until
the southern stream system pushes off the southeast coast of the
U.S. next Wednesday. Ensembles showing quite a bit of spread with
this system early next week so will not make any significant changes
to the going forecast at this point. Will keep precip chances to our
north during the day with one more mild day in store, and then start
to increase POPs Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper trof
approaches the forecast area and trend temps back down again.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1227 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST THU MAR 6 2014
A VERY WARM THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM
ARE HOW WARM DO WE REACH TODAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WE HAVE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT TO BE
FOLLOWED BY A QUICKLY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
TODAY...PATCHY FOG DISSIPATED FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE CLEAR TO BEGIN...BUT
CLOUDINESS LOOMS IN NORTHERN COLORADO. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE THINK CLOUD COVER WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO NOT BE MUCH OF A
PROBLEM FOR SURFACE HEATING. BESIDES...WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE
WARMER TEMPS TODAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF
THE SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH MANY SPOTS LIKELY HITTING
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED REGARDING FIRE WEATHER WITH
RH VALUES DIPPING TO THE LOW TEENS...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TOO
WEAK TO SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. WHILE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE HAD SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO
MONDAY MORNING...BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...STRENGTH OF THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...FEEL CONFIDENT REMOVING
POPS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IF PRECIP WERE TO FALL...EVERY
INDICATION SHOWS IT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
FRIDAY...CLOUDY..COOLER...AND BREEZY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN.
HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY PER
LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO AREAS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AND INTO NEIGHBORING NORTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE. THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MOISTURE WILL SATURATE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO PROVIDES AMPLE PVA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...POTENTIALLY
EVEN STRONGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AM A
BIT CONCERNED WITH HOW MUCH THE NAM 4KM CONUS NEST HAS BEEN
DOWNPLAYING THE PRECIPITATION PROCESSES...BUT SINCE ITS PARENT MODEL
SUPPORTS GOOD MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT LIFTING...AM CONSIDERING IT AN
OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE
40S...AND PRECIP TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...BUT AM AFRAID PRECIP MIGHT NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THUS...FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH POPS
GENERALLY IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE...WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY...AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH THROUGH 00Z AT MOST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND FAIRLY
DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY... CHANGING TO SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODEL SNOW FORECASTS ARE IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO...THOUGH EVEN THAT MAY BE A
LITTLE HIGH WITH A MIX TO START AND ANTECEDENT WARM GROUND. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A WEAK FLOW ALOFT THOUGH APPEARS
RIDGING WILL BE PREDOMINANT AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AFTER
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 924 PM MST THU MAR 6 2014
A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH IN THE EARLY MORNING AND ANOTHER SLIGHTLY MORE
POTENT WAVE MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH IN THE EARLY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE TERMINALS AROUND 14Z. THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE 0Z
TAF ISSUANCE SINCE THE RAP SOUNDING NOW IS INDICATING A LOW CLOUD
LAYER AT KGLD. SINCE THIS WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SHOWED THIS AND
THE PREVIOUS RUN WAS NOT CONSISTENT WITH THIS...WENT WITH A
SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER FOR KGLD. NAM AND RAP STILL INDICATE A LOW
CLOUD LAYER OVER KMCK...SO LEFT THE BROKEN LAYER IN FOR NOW.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE START TIMES FOR RAIN...SINCE NOTHING IN THE
MODELS CHANGED ENOUGH TO ALTER THE TIMING...SO RAIN WILL START
AROUND 18Z AT KMCK AND 19Z AT KGLD. THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO
SNOW ONCE TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR FOR
KMCK AT 01Z AND KGLD AT 02Z. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. KEPT VISIBILITY AT 3SM IN LIGHT SNOW...BUT IT
COULD GO LOWER. LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON THAT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1125 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Water vapor imagery and 00Z upper air analysis indicate a weak upper
level ridge of high pressure tracking eastward across the Central
Plains. Meanwhile, an upper level shortwave trough is moving
southeast across the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, an area
of low pressure has developed across eastern Colorado while moisture
continues to edge slowly northward into western Kansas with surface
dewpoints mainly in the 30s(F).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
The dense fog across at least one half of my eastern zones
dissipated and moved east by late this morning. This fog and low
ceilings slowed down the surface heating, and thus I lowered maximum
temperatures in my eastern tier of zones for this afternoon, as I
saw ICT did also. Winds have been increasing in the post-fog
environment, especially in the west zones near the Colorado border.
Under clear skies tonight and with winds subsiding to around 10
to 11 knots, the HRRR and RUC models develop some fog in about our
eastern 1/3rd of our forecast areas tonight. After collaboration
with ICT (here, in backup mode), I have decided to put patchy fog
(not dense) in our eastern zones. I will brief the evening shift
to pass on to the mid shift to monitor the fog, for any possible
dense development. For now, the models are pointing further east
than my Stafford to Barber eastern border for any dense fog
potential. As for low temperatures, the steady southerly flow
will keep minimum temperatures up from last night. Minimums should
range from the middle 30s in the north and east sections, east of
a line from Dighton to Coldwater, and only to the lower 40s in the
Stanton County to Seward County.
Friday will start mostly clear, but become mostly cloudy by early afternoon.
There is an upper level trough approaching from the west, and for
now looks like it will delay until the Fri Nt period as far as
precip goes. A cold front will plunge south on Friday, switching
morning southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph to north at 15 to 25 mph
and gusty by early afternoon Friday. The clouds will follow the
cold front and skies should become cloudy by early afternoon also.
This will help hold down maximum temperatures. Friday should be
colder than today for most locations, with highs ranging from
around 50F in the Hays area, to the the lower to middle 60s in the
southern Meade and Ashland areas.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A few forecast concerns that need to be addressed. The first was to
tweak precipitation types Friday night. Both GFS and NAM are warmer
with the thermo profile than compared to ECMWF. From a meteorological
conceptual model, applied again the top down approach which suggests
that precip will start as rain and then transition to snow by Saturday
morning. Some drizzle is possible across the northern zones Friday evening
for a brief period before the entire profile becomes completely saturated.
Snowfall amounts look to be sub-advisory and in the 0.50-1.5" range.
Right now GFS/NAM/WRF are starting to agree on an area south of the
Arkansas river for seeing the best shot at accumulating snowfall. This
in association with better isentropic lift. Anyway, if the EC verifies,
than my maximums are too high for Saturday. This model is the outlier
compared to the GFS/NAM/GEM, so will bias towards these other solutions
for now versus the outlier.
A very nice warm up is expected Sunday and particularly Monday. Here
a downslope plume and low level warm air advection will lead to very
nice temperatures with 60s/70sF.
A cold front moves through Tuesday evening. Cold air advection lags
a bit and the EC solution continues to be the outlier. Did not stray
too much from the weighted blend solution for pops. Fixed precipitation
type as it seems dubious to get snow with sfc temperatures in the 50s.
Even the EC has model sfc temperatures in the upper 30sF so changed
the snow ptype and made more of a rain/snow event for a buffer. Of
course, synoptic and mesoscale details are very uncertain at this point
but feel it is appropriate to have a blend of precipitation types rather
than to commit to one precipitation type given the large uncertainty
in the evolution and verification of the thermo profile and lift.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
VFR condtions will prevail at all TAF sites through Friday
afternoon. As for winds, southerly winds of 5 to 15kt will persist
overnight as surface low pressure remains anchored across eastern
Colorado. However, winds will become northerly 20 to 30kt by early
Friday afternoon as a cold front pushes southeastward across
western Kansas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 36 58 28 44 / 0 10 60 20
GCK 38 56 28 49 / 0 20 50 10
EHA 42 62 31 45 / 0 20 60 10
LBL 40 63 30 44 / 0 20 60 20
HYS 35 51 26 46 / 0 20 40 10
P28 35 60 29 43 / 0 10 60 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1057 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXISTS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CREATE
AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT OVER RESIDUAL
SNOWPACK. WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP AS WELL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE 4 KM WRF MODEL AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST. A
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS WHICH INDICATE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THEREFORE MIXING AS OPPOSED
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THAT WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING. WE`VE
INSERTED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT, SINCE A LARGE
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKER ON
MUCH FRIDAY MORNING THAN FOG DID THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FASTER AS WELL, REACHING AROUND 60 DEGREES SOUTH AND EAST OF
WICHITA, AND COOLER UPPER 40S OR LOW 50S FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BETWEEN FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST TO IMPACT THE AREA IS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING INITIAL A CHANCE OF RAIN, RAIN AND
SNOW BEFORE A COMPLETE PHASE CHANCE LOOKS REASONABLE EARLY SATURDAY.
THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS LOW SNOW RATIOS FOR THE ENTIRETY OF
THE PRECIPITATION EPISODE. FOLLOWING THE WAVE ON SATURDAY, A SLOW
WARMUP ON SUNDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MARKED WARMUP APPEARS
LIKELY FOR VERY EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND
WIDESPREAD 60`S ON MONDAY. FAR LESS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EXISTS AT THIS TIME WITH THE NEXT WAVE/FRONTAL PASSAGE MOST
LIKELY CENTERED AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS PRODUCES A MUCH DRIER
SOLUTION THAN THE WET ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASED CIRRUS
CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN MVFR RANGE AT
WORST. THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOG COULD FORM IN CENTRAL KS BETWEEN
12Z-15Z AS WINDS DECOUPLE THERE JUST AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH CNU TERMINAL MID-
LATE EVENING FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH WITH GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS BEHIND FRONT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS APPEAR LIKELY IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 33 58 30 40 / 0 10 50 60
HUTCHINSON 32 54 28 41 / 0 10 40 50
NEWTON 33 55 28 40 / 0 10 40 50
ELDORADO 34 58 30 40 / 0 10 50 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 34 60 32 40 / 0 10 60 60
RUSSELL 32 49 25 45 / 0 10 40 40
GREAT BEND 32 51 26 45 / 0 10 40 40
SALINA 33 50 26 44 / 0 10 40 40
MCPHERSON 32 53 27 42 / 0 10 40 40
COFFEYVILLE 30 60 35 40 / 0 10 60 60
CHANUTE 31 60 31 41 / 0 10 50 60
IOLA 32 59 31 41 / 0 10 50 50
PARSONS-KPPF 30 60 33 40 / 0 10 60 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS
PRIMARILY ON THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA BY
FRIDAY EVENING. FALLING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING...A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL AS WELL FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS ELIMINATES THE CHANCE FOR A WARM
LAYER ALOFT AND THUS MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES. THEREFORE...THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION TYPES THAT SHOULD OCCUR WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM
ARE RAIN AND SNOW. AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN HIGHER AND LOWER TOTALS. FOR THIS RUN...SIDED WITH THE
EUROPEAN MODEL FOR POP COVERAGE WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE DOWN ON QPF.
SEVERAL OTHER PIECES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FASTER MOVING SYSTEM
WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LOWER TOTALS. BASED ON THESE PIECES OF
GUIDANCE...DID SPEED UP THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION. FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS...BELIEVE THAT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM A TRACE TO AS
HIGH AS 2 INCHES OVER EAST COLORADO. AGAIN...THE TIMING BETWEEN THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COLD FRONT AND CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WILL BE KEY PLAYERS FOR THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ANY CHANGES IN
THESE THREE COULD LEAD TO HIGHER OR LOWER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BREEZY NORTH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND...BLOCKING THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM ANY OTHER
DISTURBANCES. THIS RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE RIDGE...WARMING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY REMAIN
CONTINGENT ON WHAT SNOW FALLS FRIDAY NIGHT AND HOW FAST CLOUDS
CLEAR. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS SO AMPLE WARMING AND MELTING OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER...NO
SNOW LEFT IN PLACE AND WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAD TO A
COUPLE WARM DAYS. HIGHS EACH DAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S. ONE CONCERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS THAT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME DRY AIR ALOFT THAT COULD BE MIXED DOWN...LEADING TO LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BECOME A CONCERN.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE
NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE RELEASED FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO ESTABLISHED BY THE CR INITIALIZATION
PROCEDURE. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING A VIGOROUS COLD
OUTBREAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
FALL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 924 PM MST THU MAR 6 2014
A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH IN THE EARLY MORNING AND ANOTHER SLIGHTLY MORE
POTENT WAVE MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH IN THE EARLY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE TERMINALS AROUND 14Z. THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE 0Z
TAF ISSUANCE SINCE THE RAP SOUNDING NOW IS INDICATING A LOW CLOUD
LAYER AT KGLD. SINCE THIS WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SHOWED THIS AND
THE PREVIOUS RUN WAS NOT CONSISTENT WITH THIS...WENT WITH A
SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER FOR KGLD. NAM AND RAP STILL INDICATE A LOW
CLOUD LAYER OVER KMCK...SO LEFT THE BROKEN LAYER IN FOR NOW.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE START TIMES FOR RAIN...SINCE NOTHING IN THE
MODELS CHANGED ENOUGH TO ALTER THE TIMING...SO RAIN WILL START
AROUND 18Z AT KMCK AND 19Z AT KGLD. THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO
SNOW ONCE TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR FOR
KMCK AT 01Z AND KGLD AT 02Z. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. KEPT VISIBILITY AT 3SM IN LIGHT SNOW...BUT IT
COULD GO LOWER. LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON THAT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
445 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS IS THROWING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BACK WEST INTO FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE NEAREST MEASURABLE PCPN STILL APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A
COUNTY OR SO ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE RAIN AND
SNOW HAVE BEEN REPORTED. A FEW SPECKS OF LIKELY JUST VIRGA ARE
SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST RADAR SCANS OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA VARY MAINLY BY RIDGE AND VALLEY
WITH THE FORMER IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHILE THE LATTER HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S. SHOULD ANY OF THOSE ROGUE RETURNS REACH
THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING ON ELEVATED
SFCS...BUT THE RISK OF ACTUAL ICY SPOTS DEVELOPING IS QUITE REMOTE.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MINIMAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
SITUATION FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST IF THE RETURNS
BECOME MORE DISTINCT AND PERSISTENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL TAKE THE SOUTHEAST LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST AND JUST OFF SHORE AS IT PASSES CAPE HATTERAS LATER THIS
EVENING. UPSTREAM FROM THIS...EAST KENTUCKY BE IN THE MIDST OF FLAT
RIDGING AT MID LEVELS WITH SOME HINTS OF VERY WEAK ENERGY RIDING EAST
OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. A DEVELOPING TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST WILL
INTERACT WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM LATER
SATURDAY. THIS NORTHERN FEATURE WILL THEN CUT SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BLEND OF THE SIMILAR
GFS AND ECMWF PREFERRED OVER THE SLOWER GEM SOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET AND MILD PERIOD OF WEATHER IN
THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SOUTHEAST LOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
COURT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH LATER THAT EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE BROUGHT IN SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS STARTING LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.
USED THE CONSSHORT AND BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T...TD...
AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM THE CONSALL AND BCCONSALL WERE BLENDED INTO THE
EXISTING FORECAST BEFORE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. AS FOR POPS...HAVE GONE A
BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR POPS LATE SATURDAY...OTHERWISE THEY
WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN REGIME TO
REIGN ACROSS THE CONUS. DETAILS WITHIN THE GENERAL FLOW REMAIN MORE
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN. DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE AREA FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A LESS
PHASED...FASTER...AND WEAKER SOLUTION ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...WHILE
THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE PHASED...SLOWER...AND DEEPER. AS SUCH...HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THE GIVEN BLENDED GUIDANCE...ALLOWING FOR GOOD CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND CHANCE POPS
CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME SNOW BEFORE THE MOISTURE
EXITS.
FOR TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL MODERATE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS PEAKING ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
60S. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN TO BELOW BY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
WELL SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY AND THE TAF SITES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
325 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS IS THROWING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BACK WEST INTO FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE NEAREST MEASURABLE PCPN STILL APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A
COUNTY OR SO ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE RAIN AND
SNOW HAVE BEEN REPORTED. A FEW SPECKS OF LIKELY JUST VIRGA ARE
SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST RADAR SCANS OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA VARY MAINLY BY RIDGE AND VALLEY
WITH THE FORMER IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHILE THE LATTER HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S. SHOULD ANY OF THOSE ROGUE RETURNS REACH
THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING ON ELEVATED
SFCS...BUT THE RISK OF ACTUAL ICY SPOTS DEVELOPING IS QUITE REMOTE.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MINIMAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
SITUATION FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST IF THE RETURNS
BECOME MORE DISTINCT AND PERSISTENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL TAKE THE SOUTHEAST LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST AND JUST OFF SHORE AS IT PASSES CAPE HATTERAS LATER THIS
EVENING. UPSTREAM FROM THIS...EAST KENTUCKY BE IN THE MIDST OF FLAT
RIDGING AT MID LEVELS WITH SOME HINTS OF VERY WEAK ENERGY RIDING EAST
OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. A DEVELOPING TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST WILL
INTERACT WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM LATER
SATURDAY. THIS NORTHERN FEATURE WILL THEN CUT SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BLEND OF THE SIMILAR
GFS AND ECMWF PREFERRED OVER THE SLOWER GEM SOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET AND MILD PERIOD OF WEATHER IN
THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SOUTHEAST LOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
COURT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH LATER THAT EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE BROUGHT IN SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS STARTING LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.
USED THE CONSSHORT AND BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T...TD...
AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM THE CONSALL AND BCCONSALL WERE BLENDED INTO THE
EXISTING FORECAST BEFORE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. AS FOR POPS...HAVE GONE A
BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR POPS LATE SATURDAY...OTHERWISE THEY
WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW ON SATURDAY. PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY EVENING...AND THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM IN A WINDOW FROM LATE
SATURDAY TO EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SPLITS THE PRECIP TO OUR
WEST AND EAST...AND THE PRECIP PATTERN OF THE NAM OFFERS A
COMPROMISE. HAVE CARRIED PEAK POPS OF 20-40 PERCENT ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.
THE INCURSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL...AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR
MILD AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER UNDER SMOOTH/BENIGN NW FLOW ALOFT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS SHOWN DROPPING ESE INTO THE CONUS
EARLY IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW LEFT BEHIND OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO BY THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL EJECT NE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED IS HOW WELL THE EJECTING LOW WILL PHASE WITH
THE NEW TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS HAD SOME RUNS WHICH SHOW SIGNIFICANT
PHASING...INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT 12Z RUN...WHICH RESULTS IN A
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WHILE IT
APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
CONCERNING THE TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH. WOULD LIKE TO LEAVE THE DOOR
OPEN FOR A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT AND HAVE USED A MODEL
BLEND/COMPROMISE. HAVE PLACE HIGHEST POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO FALL AS RAIN IN THE LOCAL AREA...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT DEPARTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
WELL SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY AND THE TAF SITES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
130 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REFINE LOW TEMPS AND HOURLY T/TD GRIDS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT DATA. ALSO NUDGED POPS OUT OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY FRIDAY...IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 AS WELL AS RADAR EVIDENCE OF JUST
VIRGA FROM HIGH CLOUDS ON THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF THE CWA. THESE
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
THE FORECAST STILL ON TRACK THIS EVENING. MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH...AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE SREF
AND NAM12 BOTH STILL SUGGESTING THAT PERHAPS ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
COULD MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WHICH
STILL JIVES WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. WITH TEMPERATURES WINDS
AND DEWPOINTS ALSO ON TRACK WITH THE FORECAST VALUES...NO UPDATE TO
THE FORECAST DEEMED NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO FAR THIS EVENING. INGESTED THE
LATEST OBS DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS IN WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND
DEWPOINTS. ASIDE FROM THAT THE FORECAST WAS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES REQUIRED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...PROVIDING LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND
TRACKS TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. AS OF RIGHT NOW...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. SOME
SHALLOW MOISTURE MAY SKIRT OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A BRIEF SHOWER. THE BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN GET TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A
FREEZING RAIN CONCERN. AT THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH CLOUD COVER
ALREADY STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME FALLING ALL THE WAY TO FREEZING TONIGHT UNLESS WE CAN CLEAR OUT.
WITH THE CLEARING NOT LOOKING SO LIKELY...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT...GOING WITH JUST SOME RAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. EVEN IF TEMPERATURES CAN SQUEAK BELOW FREEZING...GROUND
TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM TO ALLOW FOR MUCH OF AN IMPACT. WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THE FOG MENTION AS WELL.
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN THREAT WILL DEPART EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...GIVING
WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO
THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL JUST UNDER FREEZING
IN THE VALLEYS...WITH RIDGES STAYING A BIT MILDER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW ON SATURDAY. PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY EVENING...AND THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM IN A WINDOW FROM LATE
SATURDAY TO EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SPLITS THE PRECIP TO OUR
WEST AND EAST...AND THE PRECIP PATTERN OF THE NAM OFFERS A
COMPROMISE. HAVE CARRIED PEAK POPS OF 20-40 PERCENT ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.
THE INCURSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL...AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR
MILD AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER UNDER SMOOTH/BENIGN NW FLOW ALOFT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS SHOWN DROPPING ESE INTO THE CONUS
EARLY IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW LEFT BEHIND OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO BY THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL EJECT NE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED IS HOW WELL THE EJECTING LOW WILL PHASE WITH
THE NEW TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS HAD SOME RUNS WHICH SHOW SIGNIFICANT
PHASING...INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT 12Z RUN...WHICH RESULTS IN A
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WHILE IT
APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
CONCERNING THE TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH. WOULD LIKE TO LEAVE THE DOOR
OPEN FOR A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES AT THIS POINT AND HAVE USED A MODEL
BLEND/COMPROMISE. HAVE PLACE HIGHEST POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO FALL AS RAIN IN THE LOCAL AREA...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT DEPARTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
WELL SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY AND THE TAF SITES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
439 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1034 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
SE NEW ENGLAND WEDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ALONG THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. TO THE SOUTH, ~1005MB SFC
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR ILM AT 09Z. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOW
A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING NE FROM NW SC TOWARDS THE
LOCAL AREA. EARLY MORNING 06Z SOUNDING AT GREENSBORO NC (GSO)
SHOWING A PROMINENT WARM NOSE ~H9...HOWEVER NAM AND 06Z RAP SEEM
A BIT TOO STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE (MORE ON THAT IN A MINUTE).
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWING PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT MAKING INROADS INTO
EASTERN NC, WHICH IS EATING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RAIN
SHIELD. AS EXPECTED, BEST FORCING HAS REMAINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
WITH PRECIP MAKING ONLY VERY SLOW PROGRESS ENCROACHING UPON
CENTRAL VA ZONES. FOR P-TYPE, WE`VE SLOWED THE CHANGEOVER JUST A
BIT AS PER TOP-DOWN TOOLS. OVERALL, VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THINKING HAS OCCURRED SINCE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SFC WET BULB 32 F
LINE ESSENTIALLY ALONG I-85 AND NORTH THROUGH THE TRI- CITIES/RIC
TO KING WILLIAM AND TAPPAHANNOCK. THIS LINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
MIGRATE TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS, BECOMING ALIGNED
FROM ABOUT TAPPAHANNOCK TO RICHMOND AIRPORT TO BOYDTON BY 7AM.
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET/FZRA...AND EVENTUALLY RAIN...WILL BE
QUICK EAST OF THIS LINE. MEANWHILE, AREAS N/W OF THIS LINE WILL
SEE A MUCH SLOWER TRANSITION THAT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A FARMVILLE- GOOCHLAND- BEAVERDAM LINE.
MIXED PCPN OVER THE NWRN COUNTIES EVENTUALLY BECOMES ALL RAIN BY
AROUND NOON (ALTHOUGH COULD SEE FLUVANNA/LOUISA TAKING A BIT
LONGER OUT NEAR HIGHWAY 15) AS TEMPS SLOWLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
ADDED SOME MDT (POSSIBLY HVY AT TIMES) RAIN TO THE GRIDS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN ACROSS SERN HALF OF FA WHERE BEST
FORCING PIVOTS ACROSS. HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S WRN PIEDMONT TO NR
50 SERN COASTAL AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY, A WIND ADVISORY NOW IN PLACE FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE COASTAL TIDEWATER REGION (INCLUDING NORFOLK
AND VIRGINIA BEACH)...AND THE VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. MSAS SHOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR 70 UBARS/KM
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC CRYSTAL COAST REGION OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG AND VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WHICH WILL SLIDE NE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH TODAY OVER THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS UP THE
CAROLINA COAST...BEFORE EVENTUALLY PIVOTING NE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING BEFORE PUSHING OUT TO SEA. THIS
PORTENTS TO A BREEZY DAY INLAND (15-20 G 30 MPH) WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS WITHIN THE ADVISORY
AREAS WILL BE N-NE AT 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR IN TWO WAVES...THE FIRST ONE IS ONGOING
NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH ALONG SE COAST. THE SECOND IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED BTWN 21-00Z (4-7PM EST). WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTS TO PEAK ABOVE 50 KT/58 MPH
DURING THE SECOND SURGE OF WINDS...ESPECIALLY FROM NORFOLK/VA
BEACH TO CURRITUCK. WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW WINDS DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE HOISTING A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS, BUT THAT IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY. DUE TO THE N-NE WIND DIRECTION...THE HAMPTON ROADS
AREA MAY END UP IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTN/EVENING. HAVE
KEPT THIS AREA OUT OF THE WIND ADVISORY ATTM DUE TO A VERY SHALLOW
INSTABILITY LAYER BEING DEPICTED IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...WHICH
IS MAINLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN AND A
VERY LOW STRATUS DECK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRS PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE NIGHT. PCPN ENDS W-E WITH
DCRG CLDNS AFTER MIDNIGHT WRN AREAS. LOWS IN THE L-M30S EXCEPT
U30S- L40S SERN COASTAL AREAS.
WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. EXPECT PT TO MSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TMPS. H85 TMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
U50S-L60S WEST OF THE BAY...L-M50S ALONG THE COAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH IN BACKDOOR FASHION LATE SAT NGT THROUGH SUN MRNG.
MOISTURE LIMITED SO CONFINED LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN MOST
COUNTYS. LOWS 35-40. PT TO MSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY AND A BIT COOLER
SUNDAY. HIGHS U40-M50S INVOF THE WATER...U50S-L60S WEST OF THE BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING GENERALLY WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE TWO MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE
LOCATION...MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF LO PRES ACRS THE AREA WED THRU
THU. DRY WX WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MON AND TUE...AS WSW
FLO SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 60S ON MON...AND INTO THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ON TUE. LO PRES WILL THEN RESULT IN CHC FOR
SHOWERS OR RAIN LATE TUE NGT INTO THU MORNG. DRY WX RETURNS THU
AFTN. LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 30S MON MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S TUE MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO UPR 40S WED MORNG...AND RANGING
FM THE LWR 30S TO LWR 40S THU MORNG. HIGHS RANGING FM THE LWR 50S
TO LWR 60S WED...AND RANGING FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
ALONG THE LEESIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN JUST OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. A VERY STRONG/TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP
PRESSURE FALLS TODAY WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY NE-N WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR IN TWO WAVES...THE FIRST
ONE WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE SECOND IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
EXPECTED BTWN 21-00Z. EXPECTED SUSTAINED NE-N WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 KT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST OF NE NC...FAR
SE VA AND THE VA EASTERN SHORE. GUSTS MAY POTENTIALLY REACH 50 KT
LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING FROM KORF TO KMQI...HOWEVER THE MIXING
LAYER IS FAIRLY SHALLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF STEADY RAIN AND A VERY
LOW STRATUS DECK. FARTHER INLAND...EXPECT SUSTAINED NE-N WINDS OF
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
NWD THIS MORNING...HOWEVER IT SHOULD OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES BY
LATE MORNING. PRECIP WILL PRIMARILY FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER COLDER
AIR NORTHWEST OF GENERALLY AN KAVC-KRIC-KSBY LINE WILL ALLOW FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR THIS MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND PRECIP BECOMES ALL RAIN. CIGS
WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR TODAY AND VIS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 2-3SM
IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PUSHES OUT TO SEA AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. EXPECT CIGS TO
LIFT/DISSIPATE AND WINDS TO DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
DUE TO LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION ALSO MOVES OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FM FLORIDA NE AND JUST OFF THE
SE AND MID ATLC CST THIS EVENG THRU FRI NGT. HAVE ADDED THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY (ANZ634) AND CURRITUCK SND (ANZ633) TO THE GALE WARNING
WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT THRU FRI EVENG. ELSEWHERE...SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU LATE FRI NGT OR THRU SAT MORNG (ON THE CST). WAVES
WILL BLD TO 4 TO 6 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS WILL BLD TO 8 TO
12 FT ON THE CST DUE TO VERY STRONG NE OR N WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
CALMER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FM MIDDAY SAT THRU TUE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES XPCD TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.5 FT ABV NORMAL ALG THE OCN
AND IN THE BAY FM THROUGH FRI. NO FLOODING XPCD ATTM DUE TO DCRSG
ASTRO TIDE LVLS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR PSBL STRONGER PD OF WNDS
(TNGT THRU FRI) WHICH MAY RESULT IN DEPARTURES RISING CLOSER TO 2
FT (AND THAT WOULD APPROACH MINOR THRESHOLDS IN SOME PLACES).
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-032-
102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ048-049-
061>064-069.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ095-097>100.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ060-065>068-070-071-079-080.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-
658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
635>638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...W/ THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDING BACK ONSHORE WELL
INTO THE SRN APLCNS. THE SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SC COAST AND WILL
DECELERATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN...PIVOTS AND THEN
DRAGS THE REMAINDER OF THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST LATER TODAY. THE NRN
EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER NORTH
INTO CNTRL VA AND THE NORTH-CNTRL VA PIEDMONT MORE TOWARD THE
PREDAWN HRS.
WHILE THE LOWER-RES REGIONAL SCALE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT
ON THIS LEADING EDGE`S NWD PROGRESS...HI-RES NEAR TERM MODELS LIKE
THE HRRR AND 00Z WRF-NMM4KM PIVOT EDGE OF THE PRECIP ON A LINE FROM
CHO TO DCA AND EAST. THE HIGHER PROBS FOR MEASURABLE FZRA ACCUM WILL
BE OVER THE SRN TIER COUNTIES/LOCALES OF THE CWA W/ A TAPERING
EFFECT BACK TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE/I-66 CORRIDOR BUT STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF FZDZ IN POCKETS OUT AHEAD OF THE LEADING
EDGE.
VERY LIGHT PRECIP REGARDLESS...W/ ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF FZRA
EXPECTED FOR THE NRN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BORDERING THE CNTRL VA LOCALES. KEEPING THE WINTER WX ADVISORY
INTACT FOR THE INCOMING PRECIP POTENTIAL...EVEN IF SOME OF THE NRN
FRINGE AREAS OF THE ADVISORY ARE BRIEFLY BRUSHED W/ A WAVE OF LIGHT
PRECIP-DRIZZLE HEADING INTO THE PRE/POSTDAWN HRS. THE MAIN WINDOW
FOR THIS POTENTIAL IS BETWEEN 6-10A W/ A SLIGHT BUFFER ON EITHER
SIDE BECAUSE SFC TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE.
HIGHS TODAY A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY BUT THE DAYTIME HRS WILL BE
CLOUDY...KEEPING OUR POTENTIAL WARM-UP MODERATED W/ ONLY M-U30S
EXPECTED. A SHARP CLOUD DECREASE WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVE...AS THE
EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD PIVOTS BACK TOWARD THE COAST AND MOVES
WELL E OF THE AREA. THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WON`T BE FAR
BEHIND...W/ SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING OUT LATE TONIGHT. THE HEFTY
CLOUD SHIELD TODAY WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS INTACT IN THE FAIRLY "MOIST"
RANGE...WHICH WILL KEEP OUR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT MODERATED...ONLY
DROPPING A COUPLE/FEW DEG BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY WHILE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE IT WILL
TURN OUT TO BE NOTICEABLY MILDER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. MAX TEMPS
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT DUE TO AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY...BRINGING
SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER OVER THE GULF COAST STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. MORE
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MILD CONDITIONS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BRINGING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CIGS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH MVFR LEVELS DURING THIS TIME.
SOLID MVFR CIGS SPILLING NWD INTO THE REGION...WILL APPROACH IFR
TOWARD DAWN BUT HOVER JUST INTO THE HIGH-END IFR RANGE. THE WINDOW
FOR THE LOWEST CIGS WILL BE THE MID MORNING HOURS...THEN DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO BRING THEM BACK UP SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE AFTN HRS.
NOT UNTIL LATE THIS EVE THOUGH WILL SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AND THE
AREA IMPROVES OUT OF THE MVFR RANGE.
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL PIVOT TOWARD THE AREA - MAINLY THE I-95
CORRIDOR OF DC TO KCHO IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...W/ SOME LIGHT FZRA
AND FZDZ POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS THRU THE POSTDAWN HRS. WINDS
WILL STAY BREEZIER OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION BUT TAPER OFF A
BIT TO A STEADY N-NELY FLOW ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY AND LOW-MID SCA RANGES OVER THE LOWER MD BAY...TAPERING OFF
TOWARD THE MID BAY. WINDS WILL BUMP BACK UP INTO SCA RANGE ACROSS
THE WHOLE MD BAY AND TP LATER THIS MRNG AND INTO THE AFTN/EVE HRS AS
A COASTAL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE CAROLINAS AND MOVES PARALLEL TO
THE COASTLINE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ009-013-
014-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ016-017.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ029-040-
042-052>054-501.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ025-026-
036>039-050-051-055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
536-537-540>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530-531-
535-538-539.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
230 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...WILL INTENSIFY
WHILE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...THE COASTAL TIDEWATER REGION (INCLUDING NORFOLK AND
VIRGINIA BEACH)...AND THE VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE BEGINNING EARLY
THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A STRONG AND VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES THROUGH TODAY AS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS UP THE CAROLINA COAST...THEN JUST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING BEFORE PUSHING OUT TO SEA. SUSTAINED
SUSTAINED WINDS WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREAS WILL BE N-NE AT 30-35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THE STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR IN TWO
WAVES...THE FIRST ONE WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE SECOND
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED BTWN 21-00Z (OR 4-7PM EST). THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR GUSTS TO PEAK ABOVE 50 KT/58 MPH DURING THE SECOND SURGE
OF WINDS...ESPECIALLY FROM NORFOLK/VA BEACH TO CURRITUCK. WOULD LIKE
TO SEE HOW WINDS DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY BEFORE
HOISTING A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. DUE TO THE N-NE
WIND DIRECTION...THE HAMPTON ROADS AREA MAY END UP IN THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTN/EVENING. HAVE KEPT THIS AREA OUT OF THE WIND
ADVISORY ATTM DUE TO A VERY SHALLOW INSTABILITY LAYER BEING DEPICTED
IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...WHICH IS MAINLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN AND A VERY LOW STRATUS DECK. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1035 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE COAST
OF GA. CYCLOGENSIS OFF THE SERN COAST RESULTS IN A MILLER-A SYSTEM
THAT IS PROGGED TO TRACK NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRI.
CURRENT RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF IN MAIN
PRECIP SHIELD...GENLY HAVING A TOUGH TIME PUSHING NORTH OF
SOUTHERN VA THUS FAR. LATEST 00Z NAM AND RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH JUST A SLOW PUSH NORTH
OVERNIGHT. FOR P-TYPE WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO...NAM12/RAP SFC WET
BULB 32 F LINE. CURRENTLY THIS IS SITUATED FROM ABOUT WILLIAMSBURG
TO EMPORIA WITH THIS LINE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE NW
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING ALIGNED FROM ABOUT TAPPAHANNOCK TO RICHMOND
AIRPORT TO BRUNSWICK COUNTY BY 12Z/FRI. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST WILL GENLY HAVE SNOW/SLEET TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING
RAIN...WHILES AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BECOME PLAIN RAIN.
HAVE MADE SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY...TO
HIGHLIGHT ZONES FROM CUMBERLAND COUNTY TO CAROLINE COUNTY HAVING
THE POTENTIAL TO STAY AT OR BELOW 32 F THE LONGEST (THROUGH NOON
FRI) WITH THE REMAINDER OF COUNTIES RISING ABOVE 32 F BY MID-LATE
MORNING FRI. WITH THAT SAID...BEST FORCING REMAINS ACRS SOUTHERN
VA AND NC OVERNIGHT SO QPF AMOUNTS AND PERHAPS THE HIGHEST IMPACT
FOR SNOW/SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY FREEZING RAIN WILL MORE LIKELY
OCCUR FROM SOUTH HILL TO FARMVILLE THROUGH 12Z/FRI...WITH DRIER
AIR FARTHER NORTH TENDING TO LIMIT QPF TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS (IF
THAT) FOR AREAS NW OF RICHMOND THROUGH 12Z.
LOWS U20S-L30S...XCPT 35-40 FAR SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIXED PCPN OVER THE NWRN CNTYS FRI MORNING BECOMES ALL RAIN BY
AROUND NOON (ALTHOUGH COULD SEE FLUVANNA/LOUISA TAKING A BIT
LONGER) AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ADDED SOME MDT (PSBLY
HVY AT TIMES) RAIN TO THE GRIDS DRNG THE LATE MORNING AND AFTRN
ACROSS SERN HALF OF FA WHERE BEST FORCING SEEN. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW TRACKS NE. HIGHS FROM THE
MID 30S WRN PIEDMONT TO NR 50 SERN COASTAL AREAS.
LOW PRS PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA FRI NIGHT. PCPN ENDS W-E WITH DCRG
CLDNS AFTER MIDNIGHT WRN AREAS. LOWS IN THE L-M30S EXCEPT U30S-L40S
SERN COASTAL AREAS.
TOTAL QPF RANGING FROM ARND 1/4" NWRN MOST CNTYS...1/2" AVC-RIC-SBY
TO BTWN 1.00-1.50" ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC.
WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. EXPECT PT TO MSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TMPS. H85 TMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
U50S-L60S WEST OF THE BAY...L-M50S ALONG THE COAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH IN BACKDOOR FASHION LATE SAT NGT THROUGH SUN MRNG.
MOISTURE LIMITED SO CONFINED LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN MOST
COUNTYS. LOWS 35-40. PT TO MSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY AND A BIT COOLER
SUNDAY. HIGHS U40-M50S INVOF THE WATER...U50S-L60S WEST OF THE BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING GENERALLY WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE TWO MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE
LOCATION...MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF LO PRES ACRS THE AREA WED THRU
THU. DRY WX WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MON AND TUE...AS WSW
FLO SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 60S ON MON...AND INTO THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ON TUE. LO PRES WILL THEN RESULT IN CHC FOR
SHOWERS OR RAIN LATE TUE NGT INTO THU MORNG. DRY WX RETURNS THU
AFTN. LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 30S MON MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S TUE MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO UPR 40S WED MORNG...AND RANGING
FM THE LWR 30S TO LWR 40S THU MORNG. HIGHS RANGING FM THE LWR 50S
TO LWR 60S WED...AND RANGING FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...FINALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND IS RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR
THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING ORF AND ECG. A BAND OF PCPN ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR START TIME OF THE PCPN BUT
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY.
PCPN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN EXCEPT FOR MIXED PCPN AT RIC WHERE
A LIGHT COATING OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING. PCPN
CHANGES TO RAIN FRIDAY MORNING (AROUND 13-15Z).
WENT CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE WITH IFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER THE TIME PCPN BEGINS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONLY SLIGHTLY FRIDAY
AS PCPN CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PUSHES OUT TO SEA AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FM FLORIDA NE AND JUST OFF THE
SE AND MID ATLC CST THIS EVENG THRU FRI NGT. HAVE ADDED THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY (ANZ634) AND CURRITUCK SND (ANZ633) TO THE GALE WARNING
WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT THRU FRI EVENG. ELSEWHERE...SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU LATE FRI NGT OR THRU SAT MORNG (ON THE CST). WAVES
WILL BLD TO 4 TO 6 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS WILL BLD TO 8 TO
12 FT ON THE CST DUE TO VERY STRONG NE OR N WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
CALMER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FM MIDDAY SAT THRU TUE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES XPCD TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.5 FT ABV NORMAL ALG THE OCN
AND IN THE BAY FM THROUGH FRI. NO FLOODING XPCD ATTM DUE TO DCRSG
ASTRO TIDE LVLS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR PSBL STRONGER PD OF WNDS
(TNGT THRU FRI) WHICH MAY RESULT IN DEPARTURES RISING CLOSER TO 2
FT (AND THAT WOULD APPROACH MINOR THRESHOLDS IN SOME PLACES).
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-032-
102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ048-049-
061>064-069.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ095-097>100.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ060-065>068-070-071-079-080.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-
658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
635>638-650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
331 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT
TERM... THAT BEING AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT PCPN ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA... AND WITH A NICE ELEVATED WARM WEDGE IN PLACE WE/RE
SEEING SOME FZRA. COULD SEE SOME SLEET AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT... WITH PERHAPS A
BRIEF TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST. THINGS ARE BEING FORCED
BY SOME FRONT RELATIVE UPGLIDE... ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. WE/LL LOSE MUCH OF THAT UPPER SUPPORT THIS MORNING... AND
WILL NEED TO RELY ON THE LOWER LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE... INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND
HOPWRF... WEAKEN THE PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... AND
DON/T DO MUCH MORE THAN TRACE PCPN AS THINGS DROP THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. IF ANYTHING REMAINS... IT COULD BE PURE LIQUID FOR THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AS TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO GET
UP ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER... WITH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREA ALREADY SEEING
MIXED PCPN AND WITH THE COLDER AIR ON THEIR DOORSTEP... PUT OUT A
SHORT DURATION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE POTENTIALLY
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WHICH WILL GREET FOLKS UP THERE AS THEY
AWAKEN THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH SOME COLD AIR STRATOCU IN
THE BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER... RIDGING DOES LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT... WHICH
SHOULD HELP BREAK UP MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER... WITH THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA HOLDING ONTO IT LONGEST. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY CLOSE
TO THEIR MAX NOW OVER THE NORTHWEST... WILL BE AT THEIR MAX EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA... AND OVER THE
SOUTH/EAST LATE THIS MORNING... WITH READINGS FALLING BEHIND THE
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
LONG TERM STILL LOOKS FAIRLY QUITE...WITH MILDER TEMPS PREVAILING
FOR ONCE. OUTSIDE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...IT WILL BE A DRY PERIOD AS WELL.
THE COLDEST AIR IN THE PERIOD WILL COME RIGHT OUT THE GATE ON
SATURDAY AS A 1035-1040MB HIGH WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER
THAT...THE JET STREAM GETS SHUNTED WELL NORTH INTO CANADA...WHICH
WILL SLAM THE DOOR TO THE ARCTIC SHUT /FOR A SHORT TIME ANYWAYS/ AND
FLING THE DOOR TO THE PACIFIC WIDE OPEN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS WE
WORK THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THAT ALL TO
FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN RETURNING...BUT WITH ONE
BIG DIFFERENCE...BOTH FEATURES LOOK TO BE SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER EAST
THAN WHAT WE SAW MUCH OF THE WINTER...WHICH MEANS THE BLOW OF COLD
AIR WE GET FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A MONDAY NIGHT FROPA
WILL BE OF THE GLANCING VARIETY...WITH THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR
HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CHINOOK WINDS AND A PACIFIC AIRMASS QUICKLY RETURNING
FOR THURSDAY.
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE NOT MUCH WAS CHANGED...WITH THE PROVERBIAL
SLIGHT UPWARD NUDGE TO THE HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY COMPLETED.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH MOST OF THE AREA TOPPING 40 SUNDAY AND
EVERYONE JOINING IN ON THE FUN MONDAY AS THE MAINLY WEST WINDS WILL
HELP KEEP THE FOG/STRATUS IN CHECK. ONLY PERIOD THAT HAS A HIGHER
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ARE THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE START OF
THE EVENING ANYWAYS...THE SFC RIDGE WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE ERN
CWA...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LIKELY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO QUICKLY FALL OFF AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY NIGHT. NET RESULT HERE IS
THAT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER MAINLY WRN WI COULD END UP SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE ADVERTISED.
AS FOR THAT PRECIP POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ON THE IDEA OF A BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS SRN MN. THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A CLOSED LOW BEGINS
TO EMERGE OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS. EVENTUALLY...THESE TWO WAVES LOOK
TO BECOME ONE...BUT THAT WILL COME LATE ENOUGH IN THE GAME TO LAY
DOWN A SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW
ENGLAND. FOR US...THAT NRN STREAM WAVE WILL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING
OF THE UPPER JET FROM MN ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WITH A DECENT
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SETTING UP OVER SRN MN INTO IA. UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THIS REGION WILL WORK WITH A MID LEVEL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO HELP KICK OFF AN FGEN PRECIP BAND MON NIGHT. THICKNESSES
FROM THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW THIS PRECIP MAYBE STARTING AS RAIN...BUT
QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS CAA BRINGS THICKNESSES DOWN INTO
SNOW TERRITORY. THE GEM IS A WARM OUTLIER WITH THE MAJORITY IF ITS
PRECIP FALLING AS PLAIN RAIN. WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE...CONTINUE
TO MOVE POPS HIGHER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE
THE P-TYPE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE IDEA OF THE ECMWF/GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A CHAOTIC ENVIRONMENT OUT THERE THIS EVENING WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
CONDITIONS AND THUS HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF HOW IT WILL EVOLVE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RWF...MSP...AND EAU HAVE VFR CIGS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME WITH MVFR CIGS AT RNH/STC AND IFR AT AXN. THINK THE
LARGE AREA OF VFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD FILL IN AND
LOWER LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE ALREADY SEEN EVIDENCE OF THIS OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN VERY RECENTLY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
AROUND DAWN...POSSIBLY BRINGING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -FZDZ OR -FZRA. AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...CIGS WILL HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE
UNTIL DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KMSP...VFR CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF
-FZDZ COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. VFR
WILL RETURN BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS...BECOMING W 5 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KT...BECOMING NW 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ041>043-047-048.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
225 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT
TERM... THAT BEING AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT PCPN ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA... AND WITH A NICE ELEVATED WARM WEDGE IN PLACE WE/RE
SEEING SOME FZRA. COULD SEE SOME SLEET AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT... WITH PERHAPS A
BRIEF TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST. THINGS ARE BEING FORCED
BY SOME FRONT RELATIVE UPGLIDE... ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. WE/LL LOSE MUCH OF THAT UPPER SUPPORT THIS MORNING... AND
WILL NEED TO RELY ON THE LOWER LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE... INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND
HOPWRF... WEAKEN THE PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... AND
DON/T DO MUCH MORE THAN TRACE PCPN AS THINGS DROP THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. IF ANYTHING REMAINS... IT COULD BE PURE LIQUID FOR THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AS TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO GET
UP ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER... WITH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREA ALREADY SEEING
MIXED PCPN AND WITH THE COLDER AIR ON THEIR DOORSTEP... PUT OUT A
SHORT DURATION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE POTENTIALLY
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WHICH WILL GREET FOLKS UP THERE AS THEY
AWAKEN THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH SOME COLD AIR STRATOCU IN
THE BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER... RIDGING DOES LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT... WHICH
SHOULD HELP BREAK UP MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER... WITH THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA HOLDING ONTO IT LONGEST. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY CLOSE
TO THEIR MAX NOW OVER THE NORTHWEST... WILL BE AT THEIR MAX EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA... AND OVER THE
SOUTH/EAST LATE THIS MORNING... WITH READINGS FALLING BEHIND THE
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AND THE SMALL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST THAT DO EXIST SIMPLY REFLECT A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. AS
WAS STATED SO ELEGANTLY IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE COLD ADVECTION
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL SCOUR OUT THE PRECIP AND MAKE FOR A COOLER
START TO THE WEEKEND. WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2-3 WEEKS. IN
TERMS OF MELTING THE COLD/DEEP SNOW PACK...WE WILL LIKELY DUE A BIT
MORE DAMAGE ON MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING
DEWPOINTS /ACTUALLY GETTING UP NEAR FREEZING/. THE TIMING ISN`T
QUITE RIGHT TO OPTIMIZE THE WARMING ON MONDAY GIVEN THE SURGING WARM
SECTOR ARRIVES IN THE MORNING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALREADY BEGINS
NEAR THE NOON HOUR. EVEN THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE BACK-TO-BACK 40S FOR
HIGHS SUN-MON...THE SNOW PACK IS TOO EXTENSIVE TO EXPECT VISUAL
IMPACTS. PROBABLY JUST A LOT OF WATER IN LOCAL ROADWAYS DUE TO
MELTING SNOW AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THERE IS A BRIEF COOL DOWN
AFTER MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT RAIN-SNOW PRECIP EVENT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOTHING TOO EXCITING AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A CHAOTIC ENVIRONMENT OUT THERE THIS EVENING WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
CONDITIONS AND THUS HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF HOW IT WILL EVOLVE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RWF...MSP...AND EAU HAVE VFR CIGS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME WITH MVFR CIGS AT RNH/STC AND IFR AT AXN. THINK THE
LARGE AREA OF VFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD FILL IN AND
LOWER LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE ALREADY SEEN EVIDENCE OF THIS OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN VERY RECENTLY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
AROUND DAWN...POSSIBLY BRINGING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -FZDZ OR -FZRA. AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...CIGS WILL HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE
UNTIL DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KMSP...VFR CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF
-FZDZ COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. VFR
WILL RETURN BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS...BECOMING W 5 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KT...BECOMING NW 5-10 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ041>043-047-048.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE CHANCE FOR PCPN TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM 00Z FRIDAY SHOWED THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES.
AT 300 MB...TWO MAIN JET SEGMENTS WERE NOTED. ONE WAS OVER ONTARIO
(115 KNOTS) AND THE OTHER WAS BACK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA (110
KNOTS). AT 500 MB...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES HAD 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 80 METERS IN NORTHERN NEVADA. AT 700 MB...
THERE WAS A WARM WEDGE WITH TEMPERATURES OF ZERO DEGREES C OR
WARMER FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WARM WEDGE
WAS ALSO EVIDENT AT 850 MB WITH TEMPERATURES OF 15 DEGREES C AS
CLOSE AS RAPID CITY AND NORTH PLATTE.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST...IT WILL HELP A COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF PCPN. HRRR AND MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL DO NOT BRING
MUCH INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...DECIDED TO
STAY WITH A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...06Z NAM AND 00Z GFS.
ALSO CONSIDERED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR DETAILS. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED
FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN ABOUT 600 MB AND 700 MB. THE PCPN TYPE WILL
BE RAIN INITIALLY...THEN A MIX...THEN MOSTLY SNOW AS THE COLD AIR
DEEPENS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. FAIRLY BRISK NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY.
TONIGHT...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST THIS EVENING THEN END AFTER
09Z IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. FOR LOWS...HAVE
STAYED A LITTLE ABOVE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS.
LITTLE OR NO PCPN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN PLANE AND FAIRLY
POOR MIXING CONDITIONS. THAT HIGH PUSHES EAST AND WITH BETTER MIXING
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S (WITH THE WARMEST READINGS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL BUILD
INTO WESTERN CANADA BY TUESDAY...WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
MONDAY WILL BE VERY MILD...PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. COOLER 40S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT INCREASE.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
CHALLENGING FORECAST REMAINS WITH A LOT OF ELEMENTS TO CONSIDER.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT MVFR FOG COULD
PERSIST AT KOMA. A FRONT IS ALSO APPROACHING THE REGION. UNTIL
THE FRONT ARRIVES...THERE WILL BE NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN PLACE WITH WINDS AROUND FL020 AT 45 TO 50 KNOTS. FRONT
ARRIVES AT KOFK BY 11Z...AND 14-15Z AT KLNK/KOMA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET CHANCE AT KOFK 18-23Z...AND A SNOW CHANCE
AT KLNK/KOMA 08/02-06Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM THURSDAY...
CHALLENGING FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SEVERAL
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS PLAUSIBLE. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO ADD WARREN
COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY BASED ON REPORTS OF SLEET COVERING THE GROUND
AND EXPECTATIONS OF THE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE A
LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER THINKING.
LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SFC PATTERN IN A CLASSIC CAD
SIGNATURE WITH THE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE NC PIEDMONT FROM A PARENT
HIGH CENTERED OVER BOSTON AT 01Z. PER LOW LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
THIS FEATURE STILL SUPPLYING TEH WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH COOL DRY AIR.
MEANWHILE SFC LOW WAS OFF THE NE FL COAST LIFTING NE. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO WEATHER SYSTEM WAS CREATING
BLUSTERY NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTS AROUND 30MPH IN THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
PRECIPITATION HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN FALLING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. A SWITCH TO A WINTRY MIX OCCURS IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND WEST OF
THIS REGION WITH PREDOMINATELY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OCCURRING IN THE
NW PIEDMONT-TRIAD AND INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT NEAR THE VA
BORDER.
GSO 00Z SOUNDING DEPICTS A MODEST WARM NOSE AROUND 1 DEG C THOUGH
DOES SUGGEST AT A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 850-765MB. THIS
DEPICTION CLOSEST TO THE 12Z GFS WHILE 12Z NAM APPEARED TOO WARM
WITH THE WARM NOSE. DID NOTE THAT MHX 00Z SOUNDING HAD A WARM NOSE
AROUND 7 DEG C. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW AROUND THE
APPROACHING SFC LOW...THIS POCKET OF WARM AIR WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE
EAST INTO AT LEAST THE COASTAL PLAIN...SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT...KEEPING PRECIP ALL RAIN.
QUESTION ONE: HOW FAR WEST WILL THIS WARMER AIR REACH? BASED ON LOW
LEVEL STREAMLINES...THE WARMER AIR IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL MAKE IT
AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY ONE...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
THUS COULD SEE WARM NOSE ALOFT STRENGTHEN A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DID DEPICT DECENT MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN
VICINITY OF THE PARENT HIGH WHICH SUGGEST THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN
ANCHORED A BIT LONGER THAN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS (WHICH PUSHED THE
PARENT HIGH WILL OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING). THUS...CAD CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
THUS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE NW PIEDMONT WITH PRECIP RATES
DICTATING DOMINATE P-TYPE(HEAVIER RATES FAVOR SNOW AND SLEET,
LIGHTER AMOUNTS FREEZING RAIN).
AFTER 06Z...APPEARS THAT WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE AS MID LEVEL CYCLONE TAKES
SHAPE OVER CENTRAL SC. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP RATES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DURING THIS
TIME...PARTIAL THICKNESSES REMAIN IN THE WINTRY MIX PORTION OF THE
NOMOGRAM WHILE THE RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A FAIRLY DEEP
ISOTHERMAL LAYER (FAVOR SNOW) WITH THE GFS AND NAM MAINTAINING A
PROMINENT WARM NOSE (ESPECIALLY THE NAM AT 4 DEG C). WITH THE NEAR
SURFACE AIR MASS STILL DICTATED BY THE CHILLY PARENT HIGH AND AN
INCREASE IN PRECIP RATES AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT A COMBINATION OF
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREA. SINCE
PRECIP WILL BE MIXED...THIS WILL CUT BACK ON ANY ONE P-TYPE
ACCUMULATING TO OUTRAGEOUS AMOUNTS. IF SNOW WERE TO
PREDOMINATE...COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES OCCUR.
CONVERSELY...IF IT WERE ALL FREEZING RAIN...ICE ACCRUAL A QUARTER TO
A HALF INCH PROBABLE. SINCE A MIX EXPECTED...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TO
RANGE FROM A TRACE ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE ADVISORY TO 2-3
INCHES WITH POCKETS OF 4 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. ICE ACCRUAL
APPROACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE WARNING AREA...TRENDING TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE ADVISORY. EVEN ON THE FRINGES
OUTSIDE OF ADVISORY (NORTHERN MOORE...LEE...WESTERN AND NORTHERN
WAKE AND WESTERN FRANKLIN)...A POCKET OR TWO OF LIGHT GLAZE POSSIBLE
BUT LIMITED EFFECTS SUGGEST KEEPING THIS AREA OUT FO TEH ADVISORY
FOR NOW.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OF DEFORMATION OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH MODEL/OBSERVED SOUNDING THERMAL
PROFILES...POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW FRIDAY MORNING
OVER SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT...MAINLY WESTERN SECTIONS....AS MID-
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE LIFTS NE OVER COASTAL CAROLINA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
SAT/SAT NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS WILL PREVAIL SAT/SAT NIGHT AS
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. LOWS SAT NIGHT 39-44F.
SUN/SUN NIGHT: A SHEAR AXIS WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN
SUN AFT/EVE...AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO SAT IN THE MID
60S. LOWS SUN NIGHT MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
EXPECT A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE
BY MID NEXT WEEK (WED/THU) IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE EAST CONUS. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOISING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PIEDMONT WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS (FROM THE NORTHEAST)
WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 35KTS WILL OCCUR.
THIS SAME WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION INTO
CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL OCCUR AT KFAY AND
KRWI WHILE A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET WILL OCCUR AT KRDU WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIAD TERMINALS...A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. PRECIP INTENSITIES WILL DRIVE
PRECIPITATION TYPE. DURING HEAVIER PRECIP RATES EXPECT SLEET AND
SNOW. DURING LIGHTER RATES...FREEZING RAIN WILL DOMINATE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A DECENT ICE COATING ON EXPOSED OBJECTS WITH SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION AS HIGH AS 3-4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
EXIT OUR REGION. N-NW WINDS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR...LEADING TO
CLEARING SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ007-021>023-
038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ008>010-
024-025-039-040-073-074.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1155 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE H85 COLD
POCKET/HIGH RH FIELD IN CONJUNCTION WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WORK TOGETHER TO MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG PERSIST IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AND WILL MENTION THIS AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO ONGOING/PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
KBIS WSR-88D INDICATES LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THE LATEST HRRR / RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TOWARDS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE 00Z BISMARCK SOUNDING CAME IN WARMER THAN
MODELS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING...SO WILL KEEP THE MIX IN PLACE.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR ANY SPECIAL STATEMENTS REGARDING
THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
AREA RADARS EARLY THIS EVENING SHOW A DECREASING TREND IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. SHORT TERM MODELS (HRRR / RAP) SUGGEST MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH WILL END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...HOWEVER ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
COULD DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. WILL MONITOR TRENDS...BUT WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH
STILL ABOVE FREEZING...DECIDED TO LET ALL HEADLINES EXPIRE FOR NOW
AND NOT EXTEND THEM INTO ANY NEW LOCATIONS. MADE SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO ALL WEATHER ELEMENTS TO CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND AMOUNT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. QUITE A FEW
REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL TODAY. RECENT RUNS OF MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP MORE
ON THE PRECIPITATION TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE...AND REALLY HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. LAST FEW RADAR SCANS DO SHOW SOME ENHANCED
REFLECTIVITIES FROM AROUND KENMARE AND SHERWOOD TO RUGBY. THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY. PROBABLY SHOULD BE A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY SLEET AND PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN SLOW TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH...SO LITTLE IF
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BUT WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME
AND HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE ADVISORY.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING OVER THE AREA WILL DROP SOUTH BRINGING
COLD AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL
BE MUCH COLDER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS DRY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
AFTER A COOL DAY FRIDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION...THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TO
ALL OF THE DAKOTAS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING HOW MUCH THE
WARM AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST CAN SCOUR OUT THE EXITING ARCTIC
DOME. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP JUST BELOW ZERO FROM
BOTTINEAU TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
SOUTHWEST. A NICE WARM-UP SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE 40S...WITH 20S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
JAMES VALLEY.
SEASONAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE
TEENS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY TO THE 20S WEST.
MILD WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S CENTRAL TO AROUND 50 SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: THE WESTERN RIDGE IS INTERRUPTED BRIEFLY
OVER NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
RIDGE AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION - MAINLY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS A LARGE
SWATH OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AERODROMES...WHILE
KISN AND KMOT ARE ADVERTISING NEAR/AROUND VFR CONDITIONS. THE
TREND THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE CONTINUED MVFR CIGS WITH
SOME SCATTERING OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE 15Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY PERIOD. HOWEVER ANOTHER SLUG OF MVFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...KISN/KDIK...BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PROGRESS INTO KMOT/KBIS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SATURDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
142 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERN STORM MAY GRAZE THE VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA BORDER LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. MILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SYSTEM MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COLD AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...
NO REAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BEEF UP SKY
GRIDS FOR CIRRUS CANOPY ACROSS THE E THIS EVENING PER IR IMAGERY AND
OBS. LATEST HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM JUST TO S AND E OF CWA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
NOT REALLY A LOT OF CHANGE WITH REGARD TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN A
GENERAL SENSE...WITH REGARD TO THE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST INFO FROM 12Z NWP RUNS. STILL APPEARS THAT
THE FORECAST AREA ONLY GETS A GLANCING BRUSH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
FIRST...REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES. THE CONSENSUS HAS BEEN A
LEAN TOWARDS THE OP GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
THE NAM THE OUTLIER AND FURTHEST WEST. EVEN THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST WITH AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE AND
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. LARGE
SCALE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH CAROLINA
AROUND 12Z FRI...AND ONLY BRUSHES OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 280K-290K SFC/S ALL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
OVER CENTRAL VA AND POINTS FURTHER SE. ALSO APPEARS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS MAIN DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOC WITH 850MB AND 700MB
LOWS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. ALL THIS TO SAY...NOT FINDING ANY
REAL DECENT SOURCES OF DYNAMIC AND/OR SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE CWA.
CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM QPF OUTPUT IS IN SUPPORT...KEEPING
MEASURABLE QPF JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA. OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS ALSO
KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY. LATEST HRRR RUNS BRING SOME PRECIP
RIGHT UP TO THE WYOMING/MCDOWELL COUNTY AREAS OF WEST VIRGINIA.
SO...IN THE END...NO REAL DRASTIC CHANGES WITH POPS ALONG OUR SE
BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FRIDAY TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH I DID ALLOW LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE BKW AREA WHICH
IS A BIT OF AN INCREASE FROM PREV SHIFT. INHERITED MINS FROM PREV
SHIFT STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. STILL
EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY SLEET TO BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOR THE WEST VIRGINIA ZONES ROUGHLY
MCDOWELL COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. THE
VIRGINIA COUNTIES MAY REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. EVEN WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIP TONIGHT OR
EARLY TOMORROW...A HEAVY FREEZING MIST IS POSSIBLE ON AFOREMENTIONED
UPSLOPE SFC FLOW WHICH COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN A GLAZE. WILL LEAVE
FREEZING MIST/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WORDING IN HWO BUT HAVE ELECTED TO
NOT HOIST ANY HIGHLIGHTS.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS SEEING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES AT 18Z AND ENDED BY 21Z AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
NORTH WITH DEPARTING SFC LOW OFF TO THE EAST...WHICH SCOURS OUT ANY
REMAINING LLVL MOISTURE. TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S STILL
ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FROM PREV FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE REGION BETWEEN SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH WEAK
WINDS...SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATION NIGHT. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE
OF MOS GUIDANCE LOWS. A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NAM IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE GFS
AND ECMWF. WILL LAG SOME VERY SMALL POPS BEHIND THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NAM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD...WITH RIDGE REBUILDING
OVER THE U.S. AND CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND DEEPENING L/W TROUGH IN THE
E.
THE MAIN FCST ISSUE THIS PERIOD IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH MID STREAM
ENERGY AS S/W TROUGHS IN THE NRN AND MID STREAMS MOVE SEWD IN
CONCERT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT. THE GFS SHOWS A
POSITIVE TILT MID STREAM TROUGH THAT THE NRN STREAM BASICALLY FALLS
INTO...GENERATING A FLAT WAVE AT THE SFC. THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO
ITS LARGE SYSTEM SOLN...AS THE MID STREAM S/W CLOSES
OFF...GENERATING MORE VIGOROUS CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SFC.
THE GFS FLAT WAVE SOLN WOULD ENTAIL A SFC LOW TRACK FASTER AND
FARTHER S AND E...ALLOWING THE COLD AIR TO POUR SWD INTO THE AREA
WED WITH ANAFRONT PRECIPITATION. THE SLOWER...DEEPER AND FARTHER N
AND W TRACK OF THE ECMWFHIRES SFC LOW WOULD PUMP WARM AIR INTO THE
AREA TUE NT INTO WED...BEFORE TRACKING RIGHT OVER THE AREA WED
AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR WOULD THEN POUR SEWD INTO THE AREA WED
WEDNESDAY NT...AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD PULLS OUT.
DRIER...COLDER AIR THEN CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK IN EITHER CASE.
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AND WPC...A LITTLE BIAS CORRECTED
ECMWFHIRES ALSO BLENDED IN. THE FCST FOLLOWS WPC COMPROMISE...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY RAIN INCREASING WED NT AND CONTINUING
THU...FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCE FOR SHOW SHOWERS THU8 NT INTO FRI.
LASTLY...MON AND TUE LOOK DRY AND MILD AHEAD OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL KEEP BKW IN MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 15Z
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20KT RANGE. THESE GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN AS THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 03/07/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/50
NEAR TERM...50/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1050 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND THEN RAPIDLY OUT TO
SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PASS THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AND PASS OVER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY HI-LVL CLOUDS COVER THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING BUT PRECIP
HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK ITS WAY NWD THRU DELMARVA. USED THE SREF
3-HRLY POPS TO UPDATE THE GRIDS WHICH RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS OVERALL WITH LIKELY CONFINED TO SRN DE AND EXTREME SE NJ FOR
LATER THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE. OTRW...FCST WINDS AND TEMPS FOR
TODAY LOOK REASONABLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NE TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NEAR THE NC COAST NEWD WELL OUT TO SEA. ITS
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL ACRS THE REGION, BUT IT WILL BRING CLOUDS
AND SOME RAIN, MAINLY TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING.
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS, HAVE REMOVED PRECIP ALL PRECIP
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE NEAREST PRECIP IS IN CNTRL VA
AND JUST APPROACHING SRN MD, WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP STILL
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. THE LATEST HRRR DOESN`T REALLY GET THE
PRECIP GOING IN OUR AREA UNTIL 15-16Z. IT OFTEN TENDS TO BE ON THE
SLOW SIDE, BUT STILL THAT IS A FEW HOURS AWAY. WITH THE LATER
ONSET TIME AND MOST TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ON THE LWR DELMARVA
AND ERN SHORE COUPLED WITH SUNRISE, ANY THREAT OF FREEZING OR
FROZEN PRECIP IS BASICALLY OVER.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TODAY TO THE MID 30S N AND W AND FROM
AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS NEWD TREK TONIGHT. ANY
IMPACTS SHOULD BE EARLY, WITH IMPROVEMENTS LATER ON TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD GENLY BE
IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MAINLY QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE QUICKLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST AND OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN ENDING ANY LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH THEN
WILL BE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, AMPLE SUN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE DAY, BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE LATE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING INTO THE
REGION. OVERALL, THIS WILL MEAN A RATHER PLEASANT AND MILD DAY IS IN
STORE, WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH. WE
WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MET/MAV BLEND FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS TO
THE LOWER 50S THROUGH SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND WE KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. SOME CLEARING
IS EXPECTED THEN THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY, BUT A BRISK NORTHWEST
WIND WILL HELP TO FILTER IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR TO THE REGION,
WITH BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S
NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING TO OUR
SOUTH WITH SOME SURFACE RIDGING INTO OUR AREA, ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER INTO MONDAY, WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
WE GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES AND FACTORED IN A LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND, WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER
50S SOUTH. FROM HERE, THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH, ALLOWING FOR A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PASS OVER THE REGION. TIMING OF ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT WE WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY DAYTIME FOR OUR NORTHWEST ZONES LEADING TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OF EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST, PERHAPS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OR BACK ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER
GREATLY BETWEEN LOCATION, TRACK, AND STRENGTH OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE, THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR THIS LOW TO THEN TRACK TO
THE COAST GOING INTO THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK THEN EITHER
OUT TO SEA OR ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST EARLY THURSDAY AND WITH A
POTENTIAL SHARPENING MID/UPPER TROUGH, MORE COLD AIR MAY BE BROUGHT
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
THE FCST AREA THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE, AND WE
WILL REFINE THE DETAILS AS FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
SO FAR THIS MORNING WE ARE MAINTAINING VFR CONDS AT ALL OUR TAF
SITES EXCEPT ACY WHICH HAS AN MVFR CIG. THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS AND
CIGS 020-025 LURKING AROUND PARTS OF NJ BUT UNFORTUNATELY THEY ARE
OBSCURRED BY DENSE HI CLOUDS SO THE COVERAGE TRENDS ARE DFCLT TO
DISCERN. PHL HAS BEEN CARRYING FEW/SCT AROUND 020 AND GUIDANCE
INDCS MVFR CIGS MOVG IN THIS AFTN...SO THE LATEST PHL TAF STILL HAS
THE LOW CLOUDS MOVG IN. BUT THIS SEEMS LIKE A BORDERLINE SITN SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPCIALLY HIGH.
CONDS RANGED FROM VFR TO MVFR THIS AM, AND A GENL DOWNWARD TREND IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MRNG. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH SRN AND ERN TAFS PSBLY IFR. THIS IS DUE TO CLOUDS
ASSOCD WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES NR THE NC CST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
BY WELL TO OUR E BUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN WILL SKIRT THE
AREA THOUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF GREAT
EGG INLET. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT BUOY 44009 FROM THE RAP/NAM/GFS ALL
INDICATE GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HOURS.
THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO TIGHTEN UP AS THE SFC LOW NOW
EAST OF KILM INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NEWD THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NE AND LOW PRES NR THE NC CST WILL
MOVE BY WELL OFF THE JERSEY SHORE BY SAT MRNG. HIGH PRES WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE W. THE CURRENT SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR BOTH
WIND AND SEAS THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SCA
LEVELS AS A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER OUT TO SEA, ELEVATED SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, MOSTLY IN THE
5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE,
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA THROUGH DELAWARE BAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA
LEVELS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ453>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...AMC/KLINE/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND THEN RAPIDLY OUT TO
SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PASS THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AND PASS OVER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NE TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NEAR THE NC COAST NEWD WELL OUT TO SEA. ITS
IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL ACRS THE REGION, BUT IT WILL BRING CLOUDS
AND SOME RAIN, MAINLY TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING.
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS, HAVE REMOVED PRECIP ALL PRECIP
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE NEAREST PRECIP IS IN CNTRL VA
AND JUST APPROACHING SRN MD, WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP STILL
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. THE LATEST HRRR DOESN`T REALLY GET THE
PRECIP GOING IN OUR AREA UNTIL 15-16Z. IT OFTEN TENDS TO BE ON THE
SLOW SIDE, BUT STILL THAT IS A FEW HOURS AWAY. WITH THE LATER
ONSET TIME AND MOST TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ON THE LWR DELMARVA
AND ERN SHORE COUPLED WITH SUNRISE, ANY THREAT OF FREEZING OR
FROZEN PRECIP IS BASICALLY OVER.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TODAY TO THE MID 30S N AND W AND FROM
AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS NEWD TREK TONIGHT. ANY
IMPACTS SHOULD BE EARLY, WITH IMPROVEMENTS LATER ON TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD GENLY BE
IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MAINLY QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE QUICKLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA COAST AND OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN ENDING ANY LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH THEN
WILL BE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, AMPLE SUN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE DAY, BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE LATE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING INTO THE
REGION. OVERALL, THIS WILL MEAN A RATHER PLEASANT AND MILD DAY IS IN
STORE, WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH. WE
WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MET/MAV BLEND FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS TO
THE LOWER 50S THROUGH SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND WE KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. SOME CLEARING
IS EXPECTED THEN THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY, BUT A BRISK NORTHWEST
WIND WILL HELP TO FILTER IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR TO THE REGION,
WITH BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S
NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING TO OUR
SOUTH WITH SOME SURFACE RIDGING INTO OUR AREA, ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER INTO MONDAY, WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
WE GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES AND FACTORED IN A LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND, WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER
50S SOUTH. FROM HERE, THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH, ALLOWING FOR A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PASS OVER THE REGION. TIMING OF ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT WE WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY DAYTIME FOR OUR NORTHWEST ZONES LEADING TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OF EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST, PERHAPS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OR BACK ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER
GREATLY BETWEEN LOCATION, TRACK, AND STRENGTH OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE, THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR THIS LOW TO THEN TRACK TO
THE COAST GOING INTO THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK THEN EITHER
OUT TO SEA OR ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST EARLY THURSDAY AND WITH A
POTENTIAL SHARPENING MID/UPPER TROUGH, MORE COLD AIR MAY BE BROUGHT
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
THE FCST AREA THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE, AND WE
WILL REFINE THE DETAILS AS FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONDS RANGED FROM VFR TO MVFR THIS AM, AND A GENL DOWNWARD TREND IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MRNG. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH SRN AND ERN TAFS PSBLY IFR. THIS IS DUE TO CLOUDS
ASSOCD WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES NR THE NC CST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
BY WELL TO OUR E BUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN WILL SKIRT THE
AREA THOUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NE AND LOW PRES NR THE NC CST WILL
MOVE BY WELL OFF THE JERSEY SHORE BY SAT MRNG. HIGH PRES WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE W. THE CURRENT SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR BOTH
WIND AND SEAS THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW SCA
LEVELS AS A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER OUT TO SEA, ELEVATED SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, MOSTLY IN THE
5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE,
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA THROUGH DELAWARE BAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA
LEVELS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
610 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WARP AROUND THE
LOW AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 00Z SPC WRF INDICATES RAIN
DURING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE 07Z HRRR ALSO SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN
COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF TODAY. THIS RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA. CLOUDINESS AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.
SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND THIS SHOULD
REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS SUPPORT
ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AND THIS APPEARS CORRECT SINCE WARMER AIR
FROM THE ATLANTIC HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING LOW SHOULD END EARLY TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT RAIN...LIGHT WIND...AND DIURNAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG LATE. WE USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY.
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE WITH HIGHS NEAR 70.
THE DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NAM SHOWS MORE OF A MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. WE KEPT THE
FORECAST CONSISTENT AND KEPT THE POP LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GREATER SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT. EXPECT
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE TAF LOCATIONS. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CIG IMPROVEMENT
BEFORE EARLY AFTERNOON. N WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE. EXPECT MAINLY SCTD CLOUDS BY
00Z SATURDAY. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR FOG AT
AGS AND OGB AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
533 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WARP AROUND THE
LOW AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 00Z SPC WRF INDICATES RAIN
DURING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE 07Z HRRR ALSO SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN
COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF TODAY. THIS RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA. CLOUDINESS AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.
SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND THIS SHOULD
REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS SUPPORT
ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AND THIS APPEARS CORRECT SINCE WARMER AIR
FROM THE ATLANTIC HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING LOW SHOULD END EARLY TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT RAIN...LIGHT WIND...AND DIURNAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG LATE. WE USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY.
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE WITH HIGHS NEAR 70.
THE DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NAM SHOWS MORE OF A MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. WE KEPT THE
FORECAST CONSISTENT AND KEPT THE POP LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GREATER SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT. EXPECT
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE TAF LOCATIONS. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CIG IMPROVEMENT
BEFORE EARLY AFTERNOON. N-NE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE. EXPECT MAINLY SCTD CLOUDS BY
00Z SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
501 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WARP AROUND THE
LOW AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE 00Z SPC WRF INDICATES RAIN
DURING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE 07Z HRRR ALSO SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN
COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF TODAY. THIS RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA. CLOUDINESS AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM.
SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND THIS SHOULD
REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS SUPPORT
ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AND THIS APPEARS CORRECT SINCE WARMER AIR
FROM THE ATLANTIC HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING LOW SHOULD END EARLY TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW TONIGHT. HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT RAIN...LIGHT WIND...AND DIURNAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG LATE. WE USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY.
IT WILL BE SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE WITH HIGHS NEAR 70.
THE DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NAM SHOWS MORE OF A MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. WE KEPT THE
FORECAST CONSISTENT AND KEPT THE POP LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GREATER SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT. EXPECT
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS ARE AFFECTING THE
TAF LOCATIONS. AS RAIN CONTINUES...AND LOW LEVEL AIR BECOMES MORE
SATURATED...CIGS HAVE FALLEN TO IFR LEVELS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT BEFORE EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NE WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED BY RAINFALL.
RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR JUST SCTD
CLOUDS BY 00Z SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
951 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. THEN...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ANY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
LIGHT SNOW OF FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEXT WEEK WILL START OF MILD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE
50S AND LOWER 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN...A SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION IN BY MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
STILL DEALING WITH LOCALIZED SHALLOW GROUND FOG IN SOME SPOTS AS OF
1430Z...BUT THIS IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
IS ERODED AND LOW LEVEL MIXING COMMENCES. TEMPS WARMING QUICKLY AND
ALREADY WELL INTO THE 30S IN MANY LOCALES.
FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SUBTLE
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE. MAIN FOCUS IS ONCE AGAIN ON
TEMPS...AND WILL BE BUMPING THEM UP A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THIS THINKING SUPPORTED BY RAP SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW
MIXING LEVELS TO AROUND 925-950MB DURING PEAK HEATING. PARCELS
BROUGHT DOWN DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE MIXING LEVEL GENERATING MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IN A NUTSHELL...EXPECT A WONDERFUL REST OF THE DAY. ENJOY IT...
HOOSIERS DESERVE A DAY LIKE THIS AFTER WEATHER EXPERIENCED OVER THE
LAST FEW MONTHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND TRAILING
UPPER TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 12Z SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH. RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...SEEN BEST IN 1000-850 MILLIBAR
FRONTOGENESIS...SHOULD LAST LESS THAN 10 HOURS. ALSO MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW ONLY SMALL TO AT TIMES NO QPF. THIS ALL POINTS TO CONTINUING
WITH CHANCE POPS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST
ANY RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...BEFORE IT SHOULD BE OVER WITH AFTER 06Z. WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AROUND AND THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...PREFER TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW MOS. BLEND LOOKS OK
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND WITH MODEL TIME
SECTIONS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A
DRY COLUMN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LITTLE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO THE WARMER 00Z GFS MOS. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO STRAY FAR FROM ALLBLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH WARM ADVECTION AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN. THE RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
THOUGH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THICKNESSES LOOK LIKE A RAIN SNOW MIX
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN IN
THE SOUTH AND THEN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM EXITS. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF THE LOW TRACK AND
HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES SO POPS AND PRECIP TYPE ARE FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY ON.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 07/15Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 925 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
SOME MVFR RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY HAS HUNG ON AT IND/LAF/HUF
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT
60-90 MINUTES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 551 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
MVFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE SITES CURRENTLY. WHILE DROPS TO IFR
CAN/T BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THINK DROPS WOULD BE
BRIEF IF THEY EVEN OCCUR. THUS WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS. AFTER
13-14Z ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD MIX OUT. WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LATE
TONIGHT SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION DEVELOPING WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
ONLY AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH ALSO. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SOME MVFR FOG AND
VISIBILITIES...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS WOUND UP BEING
DRIZZLE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP/NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
650 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUE TO SHOW UP IN THE FAR EAST...THOUGH NO
REPORTS OR OBS OF ANY PCPN MAKING IT TO THE SFC HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.
HAVE CONTINUED LOW POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS ASSIGNING FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES TO THE WX TERM. ALSO...ISSUED A GRAPHICAL NOWCAST TO ADDRESS
THIS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO MAINLY TWEAK THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS PER
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS IS THROWING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BACK WEST INTO FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE NEAREST MEASURABLE PCPN STILL APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A
COUNTY OR SO ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE RAIN AND
SNOW HAVE BEEN REPORTED. A FEW SPECKS OF LIKELY JUST VIRGA ARE
SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST RADAR SCANS OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA VARY MAINLY BY RIDGE AND VALLEY
WITH THE FORMER IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHILE THE LATTER HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S. SHOULD ANY OF THOSE ROGUE RETURNS REACH
THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING ON ELEVATED
SFCS...BUT THE RISK OF ACTUAL ICY SPOTS DEVELOPING IS QUITE REMOTE.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MINIMAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
SITUATION FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST IF THE RETURNS
BECOME MORE DISTINCT AND PERSISTENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL TAKE THE SOUTHEAST LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST AND JUST OFF SHORE AS IT PASSES CAPE HATTERAS LATER THIS
EVENING. UPSTREAM FROM THIS...EAST KENTUCKY BE IN THE MIDST OF FLAT
RIDGING AT MID LEVELS WITH SOME HINTS OF VERY WEAK ENERGY RIDING EAST
OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. A DEVELOPING TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST WILL
INTERACT WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM LATER
SATURDAY. THIS NORTHERN FEATURE WILL THEN CUT SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BLEND OF THE SIMILAR
GFS AND ECMWF PREFERRED OVER THE SLOWER GEM SOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET AND MILD PERIOD OF WEATHER IN
THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SOUTHEAST LOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
COURT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH LATER THAT EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE BROUGHT IN SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS STARTING LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.
USED THE CONSSHORT AND BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T...TD...
AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM THE CONSALL AND BCCONSALL WERE BLENDED INTO THE
EXISTING FORECAST BEFORE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. AS FOR POPS...HAVE GONE A
BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR POPS LATE SATURDAY...OTHERWISE THEY
WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN REGIME TO
REIGN ACROSS THE CONUS. DETAILS WITHIN THE GENERAL FLOW REMAIN MORE
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN. DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE AREA FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A LESS
PHASED...FASTER...AND WEAKER SOLUTION ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...WHILE
THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE PHASED...SLOWER...AND DEEPER. AS SUCH...HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THE GIVEN BLENDED GUIDANCE...ALLOWING FOR GOOD CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND CHANCE POPS
CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME SNOW BEFORE THE MOISTURE
EXITS.
FOR TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL MODERATE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS PEAKING ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
60S. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN TO BELOW BY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STAY EAST OF KENTUCKY AND THE TAF SITES.
THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TO THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
834 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NRN TIER OF COUNTIES UNDER THE WINTER WX ADVISORY...ROUGHLY THE
I-66 AND RT-50 CORRIDOR WERE CANCELLED. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES
TO ERODES AS IT MOVES NWD INTO INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR FROM HIPRES
TO OUR NORTH. POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACROSS THESE AREAS. PRECIP
MAY BRIEFLY MOVE INTO DC-ANNAPOLIS AREA THIS AFTN...BUT TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THEN...RESULTING IN JUST RAIN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...W/ THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDING BACK ONSHORE
WELL INTO THE SRN APLCNS. THE SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SC COAST AND
WILL DECELERATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN...PIVOTS AND
THEN DRAGS THE REMAINDER OF THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST LATER TODAY.
THE NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY MAKE A PUSH
FURTHER NORTH INTO CNTRL VA AND THE NORTH- CNTRL VA PIEDMONT MORE
TOWARD THE PREDAWN HRS.
WHILE THE LOWER-RES REGIONAL SCALE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT
ON THIS LEADING EDGE`S NWD PROGRESS...HI-RES NEAR TERM MODELS LIKE
THE HRRR AND 00Z WRF-NMM4KM PIVOT EDGE OF THE PRECIP ON A LINE FROM
CHO TO DCA AND EAST. THE HIGHER PROBS FOR MEASURABLE FZRA ACCUM WILL
BE OVER THE SRN TIER COUNTIES/LOCALES OF THE CWA W/ A TAPERING
EFFECT BACK TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE/I-66 CORRIDOR BUT STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF FZDZ IN POCKETS OUT AHEAD OF THE LEADING
EDGE.
VERY LIGHT PRECIP REGARDLESS...W/ ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF FZRA
EXPECTED FOR THE NRN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BORDERING THE CNTRL VA LOCALES. KEEPING THE WINTER WX ADVISORY
INTACT FOR THE INCOMING PRECIP POTENTIAL...EVEN IF SOME OF THE NRN
FRINGE AREAS OF THE ADVISORY ARE BRIEFLY BRUSHED W/ A WAVE OF LIGHT
PRECIP-DRIZZLE HEADING INTO THE PRE/POSTDAWN HRS. THE MAIN WINDOW
FOR THIS POTENTIAL IS BETWEEN 6-10A W/ A SLIGHT BUFFER ON EITHER
SIDE BECAUSE SFC TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE.
HIGHS TODAY A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY BUT THE DAYTIME HRS WILL BE
CLOUDY...KEEPING OUR POTENTIAL WARM-UP MODERATED W/ ONLY M-U30S
EXPECTED. A SHARP CLOUD DECREASE WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVE...AS THE
EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD PIVOTS BACK TOWARD THE COAST AND MOVES
WELL E OF THE AREA. THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WON`T BE FAR
BEHIND...W/ SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING OUT LATE TONIGHT. THE HEFTY
CLOUD SHIELD TODAY WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS INTACT IN THE FAIRLY "MOIST"
RANGE...WHICH WILL KEEP OUR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT MODERATED...ONLY
DROPPING A COUPLE/FEW DEG BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY WHILE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE IT WILL
TURN OUT TO BE NOTICEABLY MILDER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. MAX TEMPS
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT DUE TO AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY...BRINGING
SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER OVER THE GULF COAST STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. MORE
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MILD CONDITIONS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BRINGING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CIGS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH MVFR LEVELS DURING THIS TIME.
SOLID MVFR CIGS SPILLING NWD INTO THE REGION...WILL APPROACH IFR
TOWARD DAWN BUT HOVER JUST INTO THE HIGH-END IFR RANGE. THE WINDOW
FOR THE LOWEST CIGS WILL BE THE MID MORNING HOURS...THEN DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO BRING THEM BACK UP SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE AFTN HRS.
NOT UNTIL LATE THIS EVE THOUGH WILL SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AND THE
AREA IMPROVES OUT OF THE MVFR RANGE.
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL PIVOT TOWARD THE AREA - MAINLY THE I-95
CORRIDOR OF DC TO KCHO IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...W/ SOME LIGHT FZRA
AND FZDZ POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS THRU THE POSTDAWN HRS. WINDS
WILL STAY BREEZIER OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION BUT TAPER OFF A
BIT TO A STEADY N-NELY FLOW ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY AND LOW-MID SCA RANGES OVER THE LOWER MD BAY...TAPERING OFF
TOWARD THE MID BAY. WINDS WILL BUMP BACK UP INTO SCA RANGE ACROSS
THE WHOLE MD BAY AND TP LATER THIS MRNG AND INTO THE AFTN/EVE HRS AS
A COASTAL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE CAROLINAS AND MOVES PARALLEL TO
THE COASTLINE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ016>018.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ025-026-
029-036>040-050>052-055>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...JRK/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
652 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWING DRY SLOT ALOFT NUDGING INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT AND OUR FAR SW COUNTIES...AND HAS TEMPORARILY
DIMINISHED ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR SW ZONES. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY NEAR GSO INTO SW VA...OWING TO
DEFORMATION UNDERNEATH DEVELOPING COMMA. STRONG UVV/FGEN FORCING
FROM EASTERN CAROLINAS NOW MOVING ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL NOW ACROSS THE TIDEWATER. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY TRAVERSES E-NE.
HV REFLECTED THIS IN WX GRIDS THROUGH MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1034 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
SE NEW ENGLAND WEDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ALONG THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. TO THE SOUTH, ~1005MB SFC
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR ILM AT 09Z. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOW
A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING NE FROM NW SC TOWARDS THE
LOCAL AREA. EARLY MORNING 06Z SOUNDING AT GREENSBORO NC (GSO)
SHOWING A PROMINENT WARM NOSE ~H9...HOWEVER NAM AND 06Z RAP SEEM
A BIT TOO STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE (MORE ON THAT IN A MINUTE).
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWING PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT MAKING INROADS INTO
EASTERN NC, WHICH IS EATING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RAIN
SHIELD. AS EXPECTED, BEST FORCING HAS REMAINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
WITH PRECIP MAKING ONLY VERY SLOW PROGRESS ENCROACHING UPON
CENTRAL VA ZONES. FOR P-TYPE, WE`VE SLOWED THE CHANGEOVER JUST A
BIT AS PER TOP-DOWN TOOLS. OVERALL, VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THINKING HAS OCCURRED SINCE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SFC WET BULB 32 F
LINE ESSENTIALLY ALONG I-85 AND NORTH THROUGH THE TRI- CITIES/RIC
TO KING WILLIAM AND TAPPAHANNOCK. THIS LINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
MIGRATE TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS, BECOMING ALIGNED
FROM ABOUT TAPPAHANNOCK TO RICHMOND AIRPORT TO BOYDTON BY 7AM.
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET/FZRA...AND EVENTUALLY RAIN...WILL BE
QUICK EAST OF THIS LINE. MEANWHILE, AREAS N/W OF THIS LINE WILL
SEE A MUCH SLOWER TRANSITION THAT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A FARMVILLE- GOOCHLAND- BEAVERDAM LINE.
MIXED PCPN OVER THE NWRN COUNTIES EVENTUALLY BECOMES ALL RAIN BY
AROUND NOON (ALTHOUGH COULD SEE FLUVANNA/LOUISA TAKING A BIT
LONGER OUT NEAR HIGHWAY 15) AS TEMPS SLOWLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
ADDED SOME MDT (POSSIBLY HVY AT TIMES) RAIN TO THE GRIDS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN ACROSS SERN HALF OF FA WHERE BEST
FORCING PIVOTS ACROSS. HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S WRN PIEDMONT TO NR
50 SERN COASTAL AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY, A WIND ADVISORY NOW IN PLACE FOR COASTAL
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE COASTAL TIDEWATER REGION (INCLUDING
NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH)...AND THE VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MSAS SHOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR 70
UBARS/KM ACROSS THE EASTERN NC CRYSTAL COAST REGION OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG AND VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WHICH WILL SLIDE NE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH TODAY OVER THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS UP THE
CAROLINA COAST...BEFORE EVENTUALLY PIVOTING NE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING BEFORE PUSHING OUT TO SEA. THIS
PORTENTS TO A BREEZY DAY INLAND (15-20 G 30 MPH) WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS WITHIN THE ADVISORY
AREAS WILL BE N-NE AT 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR IN TWO WAVES...THE FIRST ONE IS ONGOING
NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH ALONG SE COAST. THE SECOND IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED BTWN 21-00Z (4-7PM EST). WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTS TO PEAK ABOVE 50 KT/58 MPH
DURING THE SECOND SURGE OF WINDS...ESPECIALLY FROM NORFOLK/VA
BEACH TO CURRITUCK. WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW WINDS DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE HOISTING A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS, BUT THAT IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY. DUE TO THE N-NE WIND DIRECTION...THE HAMPTON ROADS
AREA MAY END UP IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTN/EVENING. HAVE
KEPT THIS AREA OUT OF THE WIND ADVISORY ATTM DUE TO A VERY SHALLOW
INSTABILITY LAYER BEING DEPICTED IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...WHICH
IS MAINLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN AND A
VERY LOW STRATUS DECK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRS PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE NIGHT. PCPN ENDS W-E WITH
DCRG CLDNS AFTER MIDNIGHT WRN AREAS. LOWS IN THE L-M30S EXCEPT
U30S- L40S SERN COASTAL AREAS.
WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. EXPECT PT TO MSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TMPS. H85 TMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
U50S-L60S WEST OF THE BAY...L-M50S ALONG THE COAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH IN BACKDOOR FASHION LATE SAT NGT THROUGH SUN MRNG.
MOISTURE LIMITED SO CONFINED LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN MOST
COUNTYS. LOWS 35-40. PT TO MSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY AND A BIT COOLER
SUNDAY. HIGHS U40-M50S INVOF THE WATER...U50S-L60S WEST OF THE BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING GENERALLY WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE TWO MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE
LOCATION...MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF LO PRES ACRS THE AREA WED THRU
THU. DRY WX WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MON AND TUE...AS WSW
FLO SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 60S ON MON...AND INTO THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ON TUE. LO PRES WILL THEN RESULT IN CHC FOR
SHOWERS OR RAIN LATE TUE NGT INTO THU MORNG. DRY WX RETURNS THU
AFTN. LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 30S MON MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S TUE MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO UPR 40S WED MORNG...AND RANGING
FM THE LWR 30S TO LWR 40S THU MORNG. HIGHS RANGING FM THE LWR 50S
TO LWR 60S WED...AND RANGING FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
ALONG THE LEESIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN JUST OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. A VERY STRONG/TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP
PRESSURE FALLS TODAY WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY NE-N WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR IN TWO WAVES...THE FIRST
ONE WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE SECOND IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
EXPECTED BTWN 21-00Z. EXPECTED SUSTAINED NE-N WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 KT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST OF NE NC...FAR
SE VA AND THE VA EASTERN SHORE. GUSTS MAY POTENTIALLY REACH 50 KT
LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING FROM KORF TO KMQI...HOWEVER THE MIXING
LAYER IS FAIRLY SHALLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF STEADY RAIN AND A VERY
LOW STRATUS DECK. FARTHER INLAND...EXPECT SUSTAINED NE-N WINDS OF
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
NWD THIS MORNING...HOWEVER IT SHOULD OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES BY
LATE MORNING. PRECIP WILL PRIMARILY FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER COLDER
AIR NORTHWEST OF GENERALLY AN KAVC-KRIC-KSBY LINE WILL ALLOW FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR THIS MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND PRECIP BECOMES ALL RAIN. CIGS
WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR TODAY AND VIS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 2-3SM
IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PUSHES OUT TO SEA AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. EXPECT CIGS TO
LIFT/DISSIPATE AND WINDS TO DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
DUE TO LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION ALSO MOVES OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
IGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
ALONG THE LEESIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN JUST OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. A VERY STRONG/TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP
PRESSURE FALLS TODAY WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY NE-N WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 20-30 KT...HOWEVER STRONGER WIND
GUSTS OF 35-40 KT SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED ON THE OCEAN FROM PARRAMORE
ISLAND TO CURRITUCK LIGHT...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY...TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 8-9 FT THIS MORNING TO
ROUGHLY 8-13 FT BY THIS AFTN. WAVES ON CHES BAY ARE CURRENTLY
AVERAGING 3-5 FT AND WILL INCREASE TO 4-6 FT BY MID-MORNING. IN
ADDITION...RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN OCEAN/CURRITUCK SOUND WILL
SPREAD NWD OVER ALL WATERS BY LATE MORNING. A GALE WARNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CURRITUCK LIGHT AND FOR THE
MOUTH OF CHES BAY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WHILE STRONG SCA FLAGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL SAT
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON SAT AND HAVE THEREFORE
EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND UNTIL
6 PM SAT EVENING.
OVERALL...CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT DURING SATURDAY.
A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AND WINDS AOB 15 KT SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY CAA AND POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES XPCD TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.5 FT ABV NORMAL ALG THE OCN
AND IN THE BAY FM THROUGH FRI. NO FLOODING XPCD ATTM DUE TO DCRSG
ASTRO TIDE LVLS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR PSBL STRONGER PD OF WNDS
(TNGT THRU FRI) WHICH MAY RESULT IN DEPARTURES RISING CLOSER TO 2
FT (AND THAT WOULD APPROACH MINOR THRESHOLDS IN SOME PLACES).
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-032-
102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ048-049-
061>064-069.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ095-097>100.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ060-065>068-070-071-079-080.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-
658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
635>638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
527 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT
TERM... THAT BEING AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT PCPN ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA... AND WITH A NICE ELEVATED WARM WEDGE IN PLACE WE/RE
SEEING SOME FZRA. COULD SEE SOME SLEET AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT... WITH PERHAPS A
BRIEF TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST. THINGS ARE BEING FORCED
BY SOME FRONT RELATIVE UPGLIDE... ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. WE/LL LOSE MUCH OF THAT UPPER SUPPORT THIS MORNING... AND
WILL NEED TO RELY ON THE LOWER LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE... INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND
HOPWRF... WEAKEN THE PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... AND
DON/T DO MUCH MORE THAN TRACE PCPN AS THINGS DROP THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. IF ANYTHING REMAINS... IT COULD BE PURE LIQUID FOR THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AS TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO GET
UP ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER... WITH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREA ALREADY SEEING
MIXED PCPN AND WITH THE COLDER AIR ON THEIR DOORSTEP... PUT OUT A
SHORT DURATION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE POTENTIALLY
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WHICH WILL GREET FOLKS UP THERE AS THEY
AWAKEN THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH SOME COLD AIR STRATOCU IN
THE BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER... RIDGING DOES LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT... WHICH
SHOULD HELP BREAK UP MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER... WITH THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA HOLDING ONTO IT LONGEST. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY CLOSE
TO THEIR MAX NOW OVER THE NORTHWEST... WILL BE AT THEIR MAX EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA... AND OVER THE
SOUTH/EAST LATE THIS MORNING... WITH READINGS FALLING BEHIND THE
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
LONG TERM STILL LOOKS FAIRLY QUITE...WITH MILDER TEMPS PREVAILING
FOR ONCE. OUTSIDE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...IT WILL BE A DRY PERIOD AS WELL.
THE COLDEST AIR IN THE PERIOD WILL COME RIGHT OUT THE GATE ON
SATURDAY AS A 1035-1040MB HIGH WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER
THAT...THE JET STREAM GETS SHUNTED WELL NORTH INTO CANADA...WHICH
WILL SLAM THE DOOR TO THE ARCTIC SHUT /FOR A SHORT TIME ANYWAYS/ AND
FLING THE DOOR TO THE PACIFIC WIDE OPEN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS WE
WORK THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THAT ALL TO
FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN RETURNING...BUT WITH ONE
BIG DIFFERENCE...BOTH FEATURES LOOK TO BE SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER EAST
THAN WHAT WE SAW MUCH OF THE WINTER...WHICH MEANS THE BLOW OF COLD
AIR WE GET FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A MONDAY NIGHT FROPA
WILL BE OF THE GLANCING VARIETY...WITH THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR
HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CHINOOK WINDS AND A PACIFIC AIRMASS QUICKLY RETURNING
FOR THURSDAY.
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE NOT MUCH WAS CHANGED...WITH THE PROVERBIAL
SLIGHT UPWARD NUDGE TO THE HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY COMPLETED.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH MOST OF THE AREA TOPPING 40 SUNDAY AND
EVERYONE JOINING IN ON THE FUN MONDAY AS THE MAINLY WEST WINDS WILL
HELP KEEP THE FOG/STRATUS IN CHECK. ONLY PERIOD THAT HAS A HIGHER
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ARE THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE START OF
THE EVENING ANYWAYS...THE SFC RIDGE WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE ERN
CWA...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LIKELY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO QUICKLY FALL OFF AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY NIGHT. NET RESULT HERE IS
THAT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER MAINLY WRN WI COULD END UP SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE ADVERTISED.
AS FOR THAT PRECIP POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ON THE IDEA OF A BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS SRN MN. THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A CLOSED LOW BEGINS
TO EMERGE OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS. EVENTUALLY...THESE TWO WAVES LOOK
TO BECOME ONE...BUT THAT WILL COME LATE ENOUGH IN THE GAME TO LAY
DOWN A SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW
ENGLAND. FOR US...THAT NRN STREAM WAVE WILL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING
OF THE UPPER JET FROM MN ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WITH A DECENT
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SETTING UP OVER SRN MN INTO IA. UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THIS REGION WILL WORK WITH A MID LEVEL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO HELP KICK OFF AN FGEN PRECIP BAND MON NIGHT. THICKNESSES
FROM THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW THIS PRECIP MAYBE STARTING AS RAIN...BUT
QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS CAA BRINGS THICKNESSES DOWN INTO
SNOW TERRITORY. THE GEM IS A WARM OUTLIER WITH THE MAJORITY IF ITS
PRECIP FALLING AS PLAIN RAIN. WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE...CONTINUE
TO MOVE POPS HIGHER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE
THE P-TYPE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE IDEA OF THE ECMWF/GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
THINGS WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING WITH SOME AMENDMENTS LIKELY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS DUE TO CEILING... VISIBILITY... AND PRECIP-TYPE
ISSUES. BAND OF PCPN ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS HELD TOGETHER MORE
THAN SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE... SO KEEPING
MORE OF IT IN THE FORECAST THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED DOING.
THERE REMAIN SOME POCKETS OF FZRA AND FZDZ... BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT
IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AND MITIGATING THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER...
SO SLEET IS BECOMING MORE PREVALENT. INCLUDED A MENTION OF BOTH
FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH THE PCPN WINDOW LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL MAINLY JUST BE AN HOUR OR TWO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES REMAIN TOUGH TO PIN DOWN AS WELL... WITH THE BULK
OF THE IFR AND LOW MVFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER... THERE ARE SOME REDUCED CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY... SO CONTINUED TO KEEP THEM AS A POSSIBILITY. SHOULD SEE
SOME MVFR FOR A TIME AFTER THE FRONT GIVEN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
AND THE LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW.
KMSP...FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE TIME FRAME HIGHLIGHTED FOR PCPN AND
POTENTIALLY WORST CONDITIONS... BUT HAVE FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
HOW LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GO. WOULD EXPECT SOME
VARIATION IN TIMING OF UP TO AN HOUR OR TWO... AND CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY GET BELOW 010 FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AS WELL.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 15 TO 25 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT
BECOMING NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KT.
MONDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. WEST WIND 5 TO
15 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ041>043-047-048.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ044-
045-049>059-061-064-065-073.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014-
015.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
532 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE CHANCE FOR PCPN TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM 00Z FRIDAY SHOWED THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES.
AT 300 MB...TWO MAIN JET SEGMENTS WERE NOTED. ONE WAS OVER ONTARIO
(115 KNOTS) AND THE OTHER WAS BACK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA (110
KNOTS). AT 500 MB...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES HAD 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 80 METERS IN NORTHERN NEVADA. AT 700 MB...
THERE WAS A WARM WEDGE WITH TEMPERATURES OF ZERO DEGREES C OR
WARMER FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WARM WEDGE
WAS ALSO EVIDENT AT 850 MB WITH TEMPERATURES OF 15 DEGREES C AS
CLOSE AS RAPID CITY AND NORTH PLATTE.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST...IT WILL HELP A COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF PCPN. HRRR AND MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL DO NOT BRING
MUCH INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...DECIDED TO
STAY WITH A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...06Z NAM AND 00Z GFS.
ALSO CONSIDERED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR DETAILS. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED
FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN ABOUT 600 MB AND 700 MB. THE PCPN TYPE WILL
BE RAIN INITIALLY...THEN A MIX...THEN MOSTLY SNOW AS THE COLD AIR
DEEPENS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. FAIRLY BRISK NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY.
TONIGHT...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST THIS EVENING THEN END AFTER
09Z IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. FOR LOWS...HAVE
STAYED A LITTLE ABOVE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS.
LITTLE OR NO PCPN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN PLANE AND FAIRLY
POOR MIXING CONDITIONS. THAT HIGH PUSHES EAST AND WITH BETTER MIXING
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S (WITH THE WARMEST READINGS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL BUILD
INTO WESTERN CANADA BY TUESDAY...WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
MONDAY WILL BE VERY MILD...PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. COOLER 40S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT INCREASE.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. EXPECT FROPA TO OCCUR AT
KOFK LATER THIS MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL -RASN
MIX DURING THE EARLY AFTN. AT KOMA/KLNK...FROPA TO OCCUR TWD 18Z
THIS AFTN WITH POST-FRONTAL -RASN MIX DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PREVAIL THEN INTO SAT MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
249 AM PST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT WEATHER SATURDAY
BEFORE RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TO NORTHERN NEVADA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RADAR IS PICKING UP A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHWEST ELKO AND EUREKA
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS DROPPED A TRACE AND THAT WAS
ABOUT IT. 3KM HRRR IS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING BEHIND THE CURRENT
BATCH OF SHOWERS. HAVE ADJUSTED POP FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING OVER FAR EASTERN NEVADA.
NORTHWEST FLOW DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WEST OF NEVADA WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOL. WINDS ARE GOING TO BE LESS THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKE WEST WENOVER...TONOPAH...AND
ELY SEEING SOME GUSTINESS.
DRIER AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO THIS EVENING
AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY...WITH DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BY
SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WHICH WILL DEPRESS THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...HOWEVER. VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 8000 FEET.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIOD BEGINS WITH
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA. MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH PW`S AND IVT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HOWEVER GFS AND EC SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION. EC IS MUCH QUICKER BRINGING -8 TO -10C 700MB TEMPS TO MOST OF
THE CWA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THE POINT ON TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AS SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
REACH VALLEY FLOORS SOMETIME LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
MORNING THE WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH DRIER
AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY AT KEKO AND KWMC. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA WITH DECREASING WINDS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
86/90/90
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
452 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO NEW MEXICO LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 AND 35 KT
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. CLOUD BASES WILL STEADILY LOWER OVER NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCATTERED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL BE FOCUSED
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE
OVERNIGHT WHERE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE PREVALENT. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY TONIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF THE STATE WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG GUSTS TO 30 TO
40KT.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MAINLY
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. FROM THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREA SATURDAY IF AN UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT MODELS UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS. QUIET
WEATHER WITH A WARMUP SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER AGAIN MIDWEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS MAKING THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM A HEADACHE. NAM INSISTS THE
SYSTEM WILL BE A CLIPPER TYPE WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHILE ECMWF/GFS STILL ON
BOARD DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW BACK OUT OVER SW NM BY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THEY ALL SEEM TO AGREE THE NE WILL GET SOMETHING OUT OF
THIS...AND GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A QPF/SNOW BOMB OVER THE NE THAT
STILL SEEMS OVERDONE. COLD FRONT...OR AT LEAST A WIND SHIFT...IS
QUICKER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO...AND RUC SHOWS IT
COULD REACH THE FAR NE IN TIME FOR LUNCH AT THE CLAYTON DAIRY QUEEN.
IN ANY CASE...HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH SOME WINTER WX ADVYS FOR THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SAN JUAN MTS AS WELL AS THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS STARTING AT 6 PM AND RUNNING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG RATON
MESA...AND PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE MAY BE AN ISSUE...AND HAVE FAVORED
THE ECMWF/GFS PATTERN WISE...WHICH PUSHES AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV
EARLY SATURDAY...SO HAVE KEPT THE TREND SATURDAY OF INCREASING POPS
WEST AND DECREASING EAST. MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS...DEPENDING ON
12Z MODEL TRENDS.
CLEARING STILL INDICATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH IN THE EVENING.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE NE MAY BE TOO
WARM DEPENDING ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR LACK OF. ANOTHER SYSTEM DUE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN OUT OF SYNC
WITH EACH OTHER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER NORTHEASTERN NM
WITH A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING BEHIND IT. THE
LATTER SYSTEM WILL BRING A NOTABLE COOLDOWN TO THE FORECAST AREA
INTO SATURDAY WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. FOR TODAY...SOME BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE DEVELOPING WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON IN SEVERAL ZONES.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL RISE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL IN
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP RH ELEVATED ENOUGH TO
AVOID WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. VENTILATION WILL
BE EXCELLENT IN MOST ZONES...AND WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BREAK OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER BEFORE DUSK.
A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL INVADE EASTERN NM THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER THE FAR PLAINS NEAR THE OK/TX BORDERS.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATING IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS...NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME RAIN
WILL INITIALLY BE OBSERVED IN SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS...BUT SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT. BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BE SPILLING BEYOND GAPS/CANYONS
AND INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS...INDUCING MORE GUSTY WINDS. THESE WILL
LAST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE FORESEEN FOR SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUPPORT FROM ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE
WITH READINGS RUNNING 5 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FULLY SHIFT SOUTH OF NM BY SUNDAY...BRINGING A
DRIER AIRMASS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION MAY STAGNATE OVER SOME CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN AREAS SUNDAY. BY MONDAY WARMING TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
MIXING HEIGHTS...AND STRONGER BREEZES WILL BRING ABOUT BETTER
VENTILATION RATES. A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE PATTERN THEN FLIPS BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE ONE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BE CLOSING IN ON THE STATE...ALTHOUGH SOME
LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST ON TRACK AND TIMING. THE PATTERN WOULD
APPEAR TO FAVOR STRONGER WINDS WITH ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONTAL
INTRUSION LATE TUESDAY.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-512>515-527>531.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MAINLY
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. FROM THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREA SATURDAY IF AN UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT MODELS UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS. QUIET
WEATHER WITH A WARMUP SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER AGAIN MIDWEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS MAKING THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM A HEADACHE. NAM INSISTS THE
SYSTEM WILL BE A CLIPPER TYPE WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHILE ECMWF/GFS STILL ON
BOARD DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW BACK OUT OVER SW NM BY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THEY ALL SEEM TO AGREE THE NE WILL GET SOMETHING OUT OF
THIS...AND GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A QPF/SNOW BOMB OVER THE NE THAT
STILL SEEMS OVERDONE. COLD FRONT...OR AT LEAST A WIND SHIFT...IS
QUICKER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO...AND RUC SHOWS IT
COULD REACH THE FAR NE IN TIME FOR LUNCH AT THE CLAYTON DAIRY QUEEN.
IN ANY CASE...HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH SOME WINTER WX ADVYS FOR THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SAN JUAN MTS AS WELL AS THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS STARTING AT 6 PM AND RUNNING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG RATON
MESA...AND PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE MAY BE AN ISSUE...AND HAVE FAVORED
THE ECMWF/GFS PATTERN WISE...WHICH PUSHES AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV
EARLY SATURDAY...SO HAVE KEPT THE TREND SATURDAY OF INCREASING POPS
WEST AND DECREASING EAST. MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS...DEPENDING ON
12Z MODEL TRENDS.
CLEARING STILL INDICATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH IN THE EVENING.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE NE MAY BE TOO
WARM DEPENDING ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR LACK OF. ANOTHER SYSTEM DUE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN OUT OF SYNC
WITH EACH OTHER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER NORTHEASTERN NM
WITH A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING BEHIND IT. THE
LATTER SYSTEM WILL BRING A NOTABLE COOLDOWN TO THE FORECAST AREA
INTO SATURDAY WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. FOR TODAY...SOME BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE DEVELOPING WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON IN SEVERAL ZONES.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL RISE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL IN
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP RH ELEVATED ENOUGH TO
AVOID WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. VENTILATION WILL
BE EXCELLENT IN MOST ZONES...AND WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BREAK OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER BEFORE DUSK.
A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL INVADE EASTERN NM THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER THE FAR PLAINS NEAR THE OK/TX BORDERS.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATING IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS...NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME RAIN
WILL INITIALLY BE OBSERVED IN SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS...BUT SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT. BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BE SPILLING BEYOND GAPS/CANYONS
AND INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS...INDUCING MORE GUSTY WINDS. THESE WILL
LAST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE FORESEEN FOR SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUPPORT FROM ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE
WITH READINGS RUNNING 5 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FULLY SHIFT SOUTH OF NM BY SUNDAY...BRINGING A
DRIER AIRMASS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION MAY STAGNATE OVER SOME CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN AREAS SUNDAY. BY MONDAY WARMING TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
MIXING HEIGHTS...AND STRONGER BREEZES WILL BRING ABOUT BETTER
VENTILATION RATES. A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE PATTERN THEN FLIPS BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE ONE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BE CLOSING IN ON THE STATE...ALTHOUGH SOME
LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST ON TRACK AND TIMING. THE PATTERN WOULD
APPEAR TO FAVOR STRONGER WINDS WITH ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONTAL
INTRUSION LATE TUESDAY.
52
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL SWING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME BANDED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED TSTM AS WELL IN THE PM. EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR
CIGS FRIDAY PM WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. STRONG WIND GUSTS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT/FRI
AM FROM MTN WAVES TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. GUSTS TO 35
KTS POSSIBLE. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE NE FRIDAY
AROUND NOON...SLOW UP FRIDAY PM...THEN ACCELERATE S AND W FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY IN THE
NE WHERE IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
CAO AND RTN. 40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 57 29 55 26 / 30 10 10 5
DULCE........................... 52 26 48 19 / 40 30 30 5
CUBA............................ 55 26 46 22 / 30 30 50 5
GALLUP.......................... 56 23 51 19 / 20 20 20 5
EL MORRO........................ 56 24 47 21 / 20 20 30 10
GRANTS.......................... 61 26 51 20 / 20 20 30 5
QUEMADO......................... 62 27 53 21 / 20 20 30 5
GLENWOOD........................ 68 35 59 32 / 10 10 30 20
CHAMA........................... 46 22 42 11 / 50 50 50 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 28 47 24 / 20 30 40 5
PECOS........................... 57 27 44 23 / 10 40 30 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 24 42 13 / 50 60 30 5
RED RIVER....................... 40 19 35 18 / 60 90 40 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 49 22 38 14 / 50 80 40 5
TAOS............................ 55 27 48 18 / 40 50 30 5
MORA............................ 56 24 41 19 / 30 60 30 5
ESPANOLA........................ 62 30 51 27 / 20 30 40 5
SANTA FE........................ 59 28 47 25 / 20 40 30 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 29 50 28 / 20 30 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 32 52 28 / 10 20 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 37 55 34 / 10 20 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 68 37 56 33 / 10 20 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 65 36 55 33 / 10 20 30 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 69 36 56 34 / 10 20 30 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 35 54 32 / 10 20 40 5
SOCORRO......................... 70 38 58 34 / 5 20 30 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 61 30 48 28 / 20 30 30 5
TIJERAS......................... 63 30 49 28 / 10 30 30 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 63 28 49 25 / 10 30 30 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 61 27 47 27 / 10 40 30 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 64 30 49 27 / 10 30 30 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 65 35 51 30 / 10 20 30 10
RUIDOSO......................... 61 34 46 32 / 10 30 40 10
CAPULIN......................... 58 24 41 21 / 50 90 40 5
RATON........................... 62 26 43 20 / 40 70 30 5
SPRINGER........................ 64 27 44 22 / 40 60 30 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 62 24 43 23 / 20 60 30 10
CLAYTON......................... 62 28 48 31 / 30 60 30 5
ROY............................. 64 30 45 28 / 30 60 30 5
CONCHAS......................... 69 35 50 29 / 10 30 30 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 70 35 50 29 / 5 30 20 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 70 34 52 29 / 10 30 30 5
CLOVIS.......................... 73 32 51 30 / 5 20 20 10
PORTALES........................ 74 34 52 29 / 5 20 20 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 74 37 53 31 / 5 20 20 10
ROSWELL......................... 80 42 57 33 / 5 10 30 10
PICACHO......................... 71 37 49 30 / 5 20 30 10
ELK............................. 67 37 48 31 / 5 30 30 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-512>515-527>531.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1005 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY AND THEN OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL WILL END
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY AND MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A
RISK FOR SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...IN YESTERDAY`S BATTLE OF MODELS REGARDING
SURFACE LOW POSITION FOR THIS MORNING...THE GFS EASILY WON VERSUS
THE NAM. THE SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEARLY 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE
FEAR CURRENTLY...SHOWN BY BUOY WIND DIRECTIONS AND BY A WELL-DEFINED
LOW CLOUD SWIRL ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THICK CLOUDS EXTEND
ALL THE WAY BACK INTO GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THIS UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED ON THE GA/SC BORDER
WEST OF CHARLESTON WILL SWING ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN OFFSHORE BY SUNSET.
RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW PLENTY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS A
RESULT OF MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295-300K THETA SURFACES
(GENERALLY 6000-10000 FT AGL) PLUS VERY MODEST CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE WARM NOSE CENTERED ABOUT 8000 FEET UP. THIS
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BECOME LARGE ENOUGH FOR A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD FUEL DEEPER AND MORE
VIGOROUS SHOWERS THAN MIGHT DEVELOP SIMPLY DUE TO THE THERMAL
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC PROCESSES LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO NEAR 100
PERCENT FROM INTERIOR HORRY COUNTY NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PEE
DEE REGION...I-95 CORRIDOR...AND INTO WHITEVILLE AND ELIZABETHTOWN.
POPS FOR THE COASTAL CAPE FEAR REGION HAVE BEEN RAISED INTO THE
80-90 PERCENT RANGE. ALONG THE SANTEE RIVER WHERE SHOWERS ARE JUST
ENDING NOW...ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE MAY ACTUALLY DEVELOP SHORTLY
MAKING IT TOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TO OCCUR TODAY. I SHOW A
DIMINISHING TREND IN POPS THERE THROUGH THE DAY.
WARMER AIR HAS ADVECTED ONSHORE IN THE WILMINGTON AREA THIS MORNING
WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THIS RELATIVELY MILD AIR SHOULD BE VERY SHORT-LIVED. AS THE SURFACE
LOW PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD AND PULLS THE VERY COLD WEDGE AIRMASS
ACROSS INTERIOR NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S HERE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONLY BUDGE A FEW DEGREES TODAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS.
WE ARE HARD AT WORK ON A SUMMARY OF WIND GUSTS AND RAINFALL TOTALS
FROM LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR IT TO BE POSTED AS A PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEEKEND WITH
ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE ONLY CHANGES WITH AN
ABBREVIATED FORECAST SESSION HAVE BEEN TO RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY TO MATCH GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DUE TO THE ONGOING STORM SYSTEM...THE
EXTENDED FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATE SUN
INTO MON FOLLOWED BY BRIEF WEAK COLD ADVECTION. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUD AS THE FRONT PASSES BUT LACK OF DYNAMICS
AND DEEPER MOISTURE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES CLOSE TO ZERO.
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO...SHOWING JUST HOW WEAK THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SUN
NIGHT FRONT IS.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A COMPLEX
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS MID WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
CLIMO TUE AND WED. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED WED AND THU AS
COMPLEX SYSTEM IMPACTS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MID LEVEL
PATTERN...MAINLY LATER IN THE PERIOD...BOTH MAINTAIN ELEVATED PRECIP
CHANCES WED. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS THE AMOUNT OF AMPLIFICATION
WED/THU AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
HAS IMPLICATIONS ON THE POP FORECAST FOR THU. ECMWF SOLUTION IS
SLOWER AND PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH THU. INHERITED FORECAST CARRIED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POP FOR THU AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN ON D7 WILL
NOT MAKE CHANGES. EITHER SOLUTION ENDS UP WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW
CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH AS EXPECTED THE
WEAKER/FASTER GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMS THIS MORNING
WITH CIGS HOVERING AROUND 1KFT AT MOST SITES. DESPITE THE CURRENT
LULL IN PCPN ON RADAR...MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CIGS LINGERING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...MAKING THE AVIATION FCST A BIT MORE CHALLENGING. BUT
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS KEPT WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS FROM
PERSISTING SO FAR TODAY...SO WOULD EXPECT MVFR CIGS 1-1.5KFT TO
PREVAIL WITH TEMPO IFR THIS MORNING. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS TONIGHT. AS
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME AOB 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...PATCHES OF
MVFR/IFR FOG WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND
CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...YESTERDAY`S GFS MODEL WAS CORRECT: THE LOW IS
CENTERED NEARLY 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR THIS MORNING...DEFINED
BY WIND DIRECTIONS AT BUOYS AND BY A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW SHOULD SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON REACHING A POINT NEARLY 100 MILES EAST
OF HATTERAS THIS EVENING. AN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SURROUNDING THE LOW IS MAINTAINING STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH RECENT
GUSTS MEASURED AT 39 KNOTS AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...32 KNOTS
AT TOPSAIL ISLAND...AND 31 KNOTS AT BOTH THE OCEAN CREST PIER AND
JOHNNIE MERCER PIER. BASED ON TRENDS IN RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE
(ESPECIALLY THE LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL) I HAVE EXTENDED
THE GALE WARNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NC COASTAL WATERS. NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SC COASTAL WATERS.
POWERFUL WINDS LAST NIGHT PRODUCED TRULY EPIC SEAS: 20 FEET OUT AT
FRYING PAN SHOALS AND 10 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE CAPE FEAR HARBOR
BUOY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE AT BOTH LOCATIONS THESE MAXIMUM WAVE
HEIGHTS WERE ALMOST EXACTLY ONE-QUARTER OF THE TOTAL OCEAN DEPTH FOR
EACH GIVEN BUOY LOCATION. SEAS ARE DIMINISHING NOW THAT WINDS HAVE
BACKED AROUND TO NORTHERLY AND SPEEDS ARE DIMINISHING. IT WILL TAKE
AWHILE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF CAPE FEAR...FOR SEAS TO DIMINISH
ENOUGH TO MAKE A RECREATIONAL BOAT TRIP SAFE OR COMFORTABLE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...ABBREVIATED FORECAST SESSION DUE TO ACTIVE
WEATHER. FORTUNATELY CWF FOR THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET.
MAIN FEATURES WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
FRONT SUNDAY. ESSENTIALLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS OF WIND SATURDAY
INCREASING PRE AND POST FRONTAL SUNDAY. NO CHANGES TO SIGNIFICANT
SEAS FORECAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DUE TO THE ONGOING STORM SYSTEM...THE EXTENDED
FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED FROM THUR DAY AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW SUN WILL BECOME NORTHWEST SUN NIGHT FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT. DURATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
SHORT AND LACK OF COLD ADVECTION OR PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT. WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST LATER MON AND MON
NIGHT AS WEAK BUT LARGE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...ENOUGH TO PUSH SPEEDS INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE.
LATE IN THE PERIOD GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP AS SYSTEM TO THE
WEST APPROACHES. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES BUT ON THE HIGH END OF
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT SUN AND MON BUILD BY A FOOT
OR SO FOR TUE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR 8 FT BREAKERS. WAVE HEIGHTS AT SOME OF THE
OFFSHORE BUOYS REACHED 20 FT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TO
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION INTO THIS MORNING WITH THE WORST OF IT
LIKELY ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR COAST. THERE IS LIMITED OBSERVATIONAL
DATA...BUT WE DID EXCEED 6 FT...MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD...AT
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE IS AROUND
NOON. AT THAT TIME...THE LOW WILL BE SITUATED ABOUT 140 MILES E OF
THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR. THIS WILL PUT US ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WITH WINDS MORE N THAN NE. THE RAIN WILL ALSO BE MORE
SPORADIC AT THAT TIME. THESE FACTORS SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE THE
RISK OF RENEWED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS TO DETERMINE WHETHER A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. A MODEST BLOWOUT TIDE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE EVENING LOW
TIDE...6 TO 7 PM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ054-
056.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ105>110.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ254-256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
915 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
NO CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. WE ARE GETTING SOME BLOWING SNOW IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY...BUT 925MB WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BELOW
25KT BY 18Z...SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY ISSUES HERE. OTHERWISE...A
COOL DAY EXPECTED WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.
EARLIER THIS MORNING A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
RECEIVED REPORTS FROM OTTER TAIL LAW ENFORCEMENT THAT RAIN WAS
FALLING. ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA...BUT
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BAND HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO WILL CANCEL EARLY.
COLD FRONT AT 09 UTC WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM ROSEAU TO
DETROIT LAKES TO WAHPETON AND IT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING AT TIMES FROM 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH 15 UTC AS RAP SHOWS 925 HPA FLOW UP TO 35
KTS. THEREAFTER...GRADIENTS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WILL KEEP BLOWING SNOW MENTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS THIS AREA RECEIVED SOME FRESH SNOW
LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...BLOWING NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE ELSEWHERE. SOME DRIFTING STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST/WEST ROADWAYS.
DESPITE INCREASING SOLAR...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WELL BELOW FREEZING SO ANY
MELTING AND SUBSEQUENT PUDDLES FROM YESTERDAY WILL ICE OVER AND
RESULT IN SLICK CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR ABERDEEN
SD AROUND 12 UTC SATURDAY...SO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT NOCTURNAL COOLING. LOWS LIKELY TO DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHWEST IA. WILL START TO SEE
SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY WITH THE
925 TO 800 HPA LAYER INCREASING 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGHS
ACROSS EASTERN ND TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
NORTHWEST ANGLE. ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER SURFACE
TROUGH PASSAGE. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE LOW RISE TO
BETWEEN 0 AND +4 C ON SUNDAY...SO EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NEAR ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONTINUED
TO KEEP MONDAY FAIRLY WARM WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT FASTER ON BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN INTO
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH DIGS DOWN...BUT THE
NORTHERN BRANCH SHOULD HELP BRING DOWN ANOTHER COLD AIR SURGE FOR
TUESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF ONLY SMALL POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
AND WILL ADJUST LATER AS NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
ON BALANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
VALLEY AIRFIELDS LIKELY TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS MORNING AND AT KBJI
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
650 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE TO MATCH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ADDED SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES THROUGH 15 UTC GIVEN RECENT
ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.
EARLIER THIS MORNING A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
RECEIVED REPORTS FROM OTTER TAIL LAW ENFORCEMENT THAT RAIN WAS
FALLING. ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA...BUT
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BAND HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO WILL CANCEL EARLY.
COLD FRONT AT 09 UTC WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM ROSEAU TO
DETROIT LAKES TO WAHPETON AND IT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING AT TIMES FROM 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH 15 UTC AS RAP SHOWS 925 HPA FLOW UP TO 35
KTS. THEREAFTER...GRADIENTS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WILL KEEP BLOWING SNOW MENTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS THIS AREA RECEIVED SOME FRESH SNOW
LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...BLOWING NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE ELSEWHERE. SOME DRIFTING STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST/WEST ROADWAYS.
DESPITE INCREASING SOLAR...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WELL BELOW FREEZING SO ANY
MELTING AND SUBSEQUENT PUDDLES FROM YESTERDAY WILL ICE OVER AND
RESULT IN SLICK CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR ABERDEEN
SD AROUND 12 UTC SATURDAY...SO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT NOCTURNAL COOLING. LOWS LIKELY TO DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHWEST IA. WILL START TO SEE
SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY WITH THE
925 TO 800 HPA LAYER INCREASING 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGHS
ACROSS EASTERN ND TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
NORTHWEST ANGLE. ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER SURFACE
TROUGH PASSAGE. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE LOW RISE TO
BETWEEN 0 AND +4 C ON SUNDAY...SO EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NEAR ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONTINUED
TO KEEP MONDAY FAIRLY WARM WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT FASTER ON BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN INTO
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH DIGS DOWN...BUT THE
NORTHERN BRANCH SHOULD HELP BRING DOWN ANOTHER COLD AIR SURGE FOR
TUESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF ONLY SMALL POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
AND WILL ADJUST LATER AS NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
ON BALANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
VALLEY AIRFIELDS LIKELY TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS MORNING AND AT KBJI
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.
EARLIER THIS MORNING A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
RECEIVED REPORTS FROM OTTER TAIL LAW ENFORCEMENT THAT RAIN WAS
FALLING. ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA...BUT
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BAND HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO WILL CANCEL EARLY.
COLD FRONT AT 09 UTC WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM ROSEAU TO
DETROIT LAKES TO WAHPETON AND IT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING AT TIMES FROM 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH 15 UTC AS RAP SHOWS 925 HPA FLOW UP TO 35
KTS. THEREAFTER...GRADIENTS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WILL KEEP BLOWING SNOW MENTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS THIS AREA RECEIVED SOME FRESH SNOW
LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...BLOWING NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE ELSEWHERE. SOME DRIFTING STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST/WEST ROADWAYS.
DESPITE INCREASING SOLAR...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WELL BELOW FREEZING SO ANY
MELTING AND SUBSEQUENT PUDDLES FROM YESTERDAY WILL ICE OVER AND
RESULT IN SLICK CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR ABERDEEN
SD AROUND 12 UTC SATURDAY...SO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT NOCTURNAL COOLING. LOWS LIKELY TO DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHWEST IA. WILL START TO SEE
SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY WITH THE
925 TO 800 HPA LAYER INCREASING 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGHS
ACROSS EASTERN ND TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
NORTHWEST ANGLE. ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER SURFACE
TROUGH PASSAGE. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE LOW RISE TO
BETWEEN 0 AND +4 C ON SUNDAY...SO EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NEAR ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONTINUED
TO KEEP MONDAY FAIRLY WARM WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT FASTER ON BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN INTO
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH DIGS DOWN...BUT THE
NORTHERN BRANCH SHOULD HELP BRING DOWN ANOTHER COLD AIR SURGE FOR
TUESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF ONLY SMALL POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
AND WILL ADJUST LATER AS NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
MIXED BAG OF CIGS BUT IN GENERAL A PERIOD OF IFR/LOW END MVFR CIGS
BEHIND COLD FRONT ALONG WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 25 KTS.
THESE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO FARGO AND BEMIDJI THRU THE EVE.
CLEARING WILL THEN PROCEED SOUTHEAST FROM SE SASK/FAR SW MANITOBA
FRI MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...BUT HOW FAST IS QUESTIONABLE.
ATTM WENT WITH GFS IDEA WITH PRETTY GOOD SURGE OF DRYING MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND 12Z-18Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
852 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
NORTHERN PORTION OF PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED AS EXPECTED...AND HAVE
ALLOWED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHEAST TO EXPIRE AT 14Z.
UNFORTUNATELY...ALTHOUGH FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WAS NOT THAT
EXTENSIVE...DRIFTING SNOW YESTERDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCED A LAYER OF ICE
ON UNTREATED ROADS THAT WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF MELTING TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL THROUGH 20S THROUGH THE DAY.
HAVE REWORKED POPS A LITTLE FOR THIS MORNING...AS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAND BEGINNING TO REACH THE GROUND IN A FEW AREAS. DO NOT EXPECT
THIS BAND TO AMOUNT TO MUCH...BUT AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 COULD SEE A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO. MORNING MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULT AGREEING ON
WHETHER PRECIP WILL BECOME HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED. HRRR AND NAM ARE
LARGELY DRY...WHILE RAP PRODUCES UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE LATTER
SEEMS OVERDONE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS HOWEVER...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH DRIER THINKING FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING IN THE 30S...WILL FALL INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY.
CURRENTLY SEEING A LIGHT AREA OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
STATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS OVERHEAD. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS...BUT IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE THIS MORNING ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE
THIS MORNING WOULD EITHER BE LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. AS
WE HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...AND A WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE INTERACTION
OF THIS FRONT AND WAVE COULD ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO
INCREASE SOME SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE HI RES MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRY
SOLUTION...SHOWING THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS. ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL WOULD INITIALLY BE
RAIN OR SLEET...BEFORE COLD AIR MOVES IN AND CHANGES THINGS TO LIGHT
SNOW. BUT AGAIN...NOT SURE WE EVEN SEE ANYTHING...AND IF WE DO
AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY A COATING OF SNOW.
WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...15
TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SOME MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WINDS ARE PROBABLY TOO LIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS...WITH DRIFTING SNOW BEING THE MAIN POTENTIAL
ISSUE. SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY TO PARTLY
CLEAR BY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE ON
LOWS...MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO...WITH A FEW SPOTS
POTENTIALLY AROUND OR JUST BELOW ZERO FROM BROOKINGS INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. WITH THE NORTHERLY BREEZE...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO
THE 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON TEMPERATURES...AND PRECIP CHANCES
ON TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THROTTLING BACK TEMPERATURES.
ON SATURDAY...WARM FRONT BEGINS TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AND WITH DEEP SNOW COVER
ACROSS THE EAST...SIDED WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO ISOTHERMAL FROM 925
HPA. MODELS SHOW A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH IF THICK ENOUGH COULD HAMPER WARMING SOMEWHAT. FRONT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE WELL TO AREAS THAT
HAVE LIMITED SNOW COVER...BUT IN AREAS FURTHER EAST FOLLOWED SNOW
CLIMATOLOGY FOR HIGHS WHICH WAS VERY CLOSE TO GOING FORECAST. STILL
APPEARS TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS HANGING AROUND ON SUNDAY
AS WELL THAT COULD LIMIT WARMING SOME.
WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT SNOW PACK TO DWINDLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH 925
HPA TEMPS WARMING INTO THE TEENS...COULD BE A NICE MILD DAY ACROSS
THE REGION...THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION OF FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE IS CERTAINLY A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT...AND WITH
MELTING SNOW PACK SHOULD BE PLENTY OF NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE TO LEAD
TO SATURATION. QUESTION THOUGH AS TO WHETHER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO LIMIT
FOG POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED SOME
WATCHING.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CRITICAL IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE. AS OF RIGHT NOW..APPEARS
AS THOUGH MOISTURE WOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH BRIEF SATURATION.
THEREAFTER...APPEARS AS THOUGH ANOTHER WARMING TREND
ENSUES...HOWEVER...LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS IN THE EAST DUE TO DEEP
AND LIKELY REMAINING SNOW PACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT ICING AS WELL THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
GREATEST THREAT OF THIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. COULD
ALSO BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND
KSUX...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE EXACT DEPARTURE TIME OF THE CLOUDS AND THE RETURN TO VFR...SO
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND TRY TO BETTER PIN THAT
DOWN. WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY...GUSTING 20 TO
30 KTS...BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1000 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...BACK SIDE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS VERY LIGHT THIS
MORNING AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RADAR ECHOES PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE MORRISTOWN AREA ARE
BARELY REACHING THE SURFACE...WHILE TRI CONTINUES TO REPORT LIGHT
RAIN WITH NO VISBY REDUCTION AT ALL. SURFACE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN
THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES OVER SW VA AND NE TN...WITH 12Z UPPER
AIR PLOTS SHOWING 850 MB TEMPS RUNNING 1 TO 2 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS
THAT AREA. THUS...ONLY SOME LINGERING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO DEAL WITH
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW OFF THE NC COAST WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. LATEST RUC MODEL
INDICATES RAIN ENDING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SHORTLY...AND ALSO ENDING
OVER THE TN-NC LINE BY NOON TO 1 PM EST. FORECAST GRIDS REFLECT THIS
TIMING. PLAN TO UPDATE GRIDS AND WEB PRODUCTS BEFORE NOON...ENDING
RAIN IN MOST AREAS. 12Z OHX SOUNDING SUPPORTS HIGHS REACHING 50S TO
PERHAPS LOWER 60S IN SE TN.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
917 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS...HOWEVER WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY...THEN
AND AGAIN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH AFTERNOON READINGS ON THE DESERTS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM MONTANA TO NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH WINSLOW...PRESCOTT AND LAKE HAVASU AS OF 16Z. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT...BUT
THERE IS SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. NAM AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRESENT
SITUATION AND BOTH SHOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WELL TO THE
NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX AFTER 18Z. COULD EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT.
MLCAPES ARE ONLY AROUND 100 J/KG...HARDLY IMPRESSIVE. MAKING SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO HIGHLIGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...PERHAPS EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS GLOBE.
BUT AGAIN...PRECIP AMOUNTS WOULD BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND ONLY LOOKING
AT 10-15 POPS AT WORST. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING AND ALL MENTION OF
PRECIP WAS DROPPED AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AND SHOULD TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND 80 IN
PHOENIX AND IN THE MID 80S AROUND YUMA/EL CENTRO.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY...
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN
EASTERN ZONE 24 BORDERING THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS FORECAST FOR THIS AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WARMER...WITH LIGHTER WIND.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH AZ TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY A COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHTER WIND.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD FEW TO
SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY. TYPICAL S-SE MORNING WINDS WILL TRANSITION
TO THE WEST BY MIDDAY WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 TO 12 KTS AT THEIR
STRONGEST. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED GUSTS IN THE 15-20KT RANGE...BUT
FEEL THESE WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE SO LEFT THEM OUT OF THE 12Z
TAFS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL GENERATE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY MID-MORNING. GUSTY N-NW SUSTAINED IN THE 15
TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR KBLH...WITH SLIGHTLY
LIGHTER WINDS FOR KIPL WITH SUSTAINED VALUES IN THE 10 TO 15KT
RANGE. SAVE FOR SOME PATCHES OF THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS...SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE AND ACROSS AREA RIDGETOPS...LEADING TO LLWS
CONDITIONS IF THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE 12Z
TAFS AT THIS TIME AS THE POTENTIAL IS WELL OVER 12 HOURS OUT AND
SOME FORECAST MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT WINDS AT
KBLH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN INTO SUNDAY...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT
THAT THEY WERE OBSERVED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE STORM TRACK WILL
INTRUDE BACK INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA AND THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AT TIMES...ENHANCING EASTERLY WINDS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL UPSLOPE AND
DRAINAGE PATTERNS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY 12 MPH OR LESS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL DRY INTO THE TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
350 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
SURFACE OBS INDICATING THE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER.
RADAR INDICATING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH THE AREA OF
HEAVIER SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. SNOW CONTINUING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND HAS BEEN HEAVY AT
TIMES EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SOME LOCATIONS GETTING CLOSE
TO A FOOT OF SNOW. LATEST RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DECREASING TREND IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN
BAND OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. BUT UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL
EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
CONTINUED ASCENT ALTHOUGH THE MAIN ASCENT TO REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS SHOULD KEEP SNOW ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH TONIGHT. FOOTHILL
AREAS TO BE HELPED BY UPSLOPE. SOME DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWEST WHICH IMPROVES MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHICS. WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTH PARK GOING FOR TONIGHT. ACROSS PLAINS...EXPECT SNOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. ADVISORY FOR ZONES 39..40 AND 41 STILL SEEMS ON TRACK FOR
TONIGHT. SO FAR...SNOW HAS NOT AFFECTED TRAVEL OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS
LOWER VISIBILITY. BUT AS TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE
SNOW STICK TO THE ROADWAYS WHICH WOULD CREATE A SLOW COMMUTE. SNOW
AMOUNTS MAY END UP LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOW TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ON SATURDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH PARK DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT EXISTING SNOW COVER WILL LIMIT WARMUP.
.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ZONAL ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMUM IS PROGGED OVER COLORADO.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES SOUTH SETTLING ON COLORADO SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE
DOWNWARD MOTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN NEUTRAL FORCING IS PROGGED WELL INTO MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...UPWARD ENERGY MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY...THEN SOME OF THE MODELS BRING IN
UPSLOPE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOW THE FRONT IN
HERE ON TUESDAY. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS PRETTY SPARSE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODELS HAVE INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. ON MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE INCREASES AND
DEEPENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS
A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP POPS OUT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN BRING SOME IN MONDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY`S HIGHS ARE 7-13 C
WARMER THAN SATURDAY`S. MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-3 C WARMER THAN
SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS
HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT ON THE ECMWF...THE GFS IS SLOWER AND KEEPS IT AROUND WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE
DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING. MORE UPPER TROUGHING IS POSSIBLE FOR
FRIDAY BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT GOOD.
&&
.AVIATION...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS AREA WITH IFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS. THE LIGHT SNOW
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHEAST
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE EVENING...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY 06Z. THE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 06Z
AND COME TO AND END AROUND 09Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY 10Z ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET
AGL FOR A SHORT TIME. CEILINGS TO THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING...BECOMING UNLIMITED BY 17Z. MFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ037-041.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ039-040.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ035-036.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ031.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
305 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
AN UPR TROF WL CONTINUE MOVING ACRS THE STATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SAT...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SOUTHWEST CO THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH PCPN SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WL
CONTINUE SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH ACRS THE AREA. THE MTS AND HYR
ELEVATIONS ALREADY HAVE SNOW...AND AS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COOL THIS
EVENING...ANY RAIN WL CHANGE OVR THE SNOW. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WL GENERALLY FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER AND
NR THE EASTERN MTNS AND AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 OVER THE SERN
PLAINS...WHICH IS WHERE THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MODEL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH...BUT PROBABLY HAS THE GENERAL IDEA OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WL LIKELY OCCUR. WL USE A BLEND OF THE 12Z AND 18Z
NAM...THE GFS AND RAP FOR SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT.
BY LATE SAT MORNING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...BUT SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED OT LINGER OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND MTNS. IN THE MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OVR SRN AREAS. IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MOST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH DECREASED
CLOUDINESS...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVR THE SW MTS AND THE SRN SANGRES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CUTOFF WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT THAT ONLY SILENT POPS WILL BE NEEDED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES REACHING +4C TO +6C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAV AND MEX MAXIMUMS ARE TOO WARM AND
WERE IGNORED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR WITH SNOW COVER OR WET
SOILS. GIVEN THE WARMER MARCH SUN AND THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE...BELIEVE
ADJUSTMENTS WOULD BE MINOR. AS THE STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY...SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT COULD MOVE INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH AS A COUPLE
DEGREES OF WARMING FROM SUNDAY. ONLY HAVE SILENT POPS ON MONDAY
FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE DRY.
.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NEXT STRONG TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION . AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES COLORADO...THERE COULD BE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVER THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. ENSEMBLES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN SPEED...LOCATION AND PRECIPITATION
TOTALS...AND THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.
DECIDED NOT TO ALTER GRIDS FROM CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE MUCH AND
ONLY HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM IN THE AFD. IN CURRENT
PACKAGE...INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED CATEGORY ON THE PLAINS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY. CURRENT MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SYSTEM WOULD BE WEAK.
MOST ENSEMBLES MEMBERS ARE DRY WITH A FEW MEMBERS SUGGESTING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GRIDS FOR FRIDAY HAVE SOME
ISOLATED POPS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHICH MATCHES THE MAIN
IDEA IN THE ENSEMBLES. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
SHOULD HAVE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AT KCOS AND
KPUB AS SNOW FALLS. THESE CONDITIONS WL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SAT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY MIDMORNING.
SOME SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT A KALS WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.
EXPECT CIGS AND VSBY TO BECOME VFR BY MIDMORNING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ078-087-
088.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ072>075-
079>082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ094-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061-063-066-068-076-077-083-084-086.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1053 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...THOUGH
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO HAVE HIT THEIR MAX...READINGS CURRENTLY IN
THE MIDDLE 30S ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FURTHER EAST. THESE READINGS AFFECTING
WHETHER THERE IS RAIN OR SNOW OR EVEN A MIXTURE. SNOW HAD BEEN
FALLING IN THE BOULDER AREA AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF DENVER AS
WELL AS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN LARIMER AND WELD COUNTIES FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING...NOW BEGINNING TO MIX WITH SOME RAIN. RAIN OR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW REPORTED ELSEWHERE. ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THE
PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SNOW HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. AIRMASS IS RATHER UNSTABLE
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH
THE EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HILITES AND SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH PARK. STILL A RATHER TRICKY
FORECAST FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER STATIONARY OR SLIGHTLY FALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO STILL EXPECTING A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW MOST
LOCATIONS WITH MORE SNOW THAN RAIN CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS AND
ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. LATEST RAP AND NAM
GENERATE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR BY THIS
EVENING. SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.
BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BY THIS EVENING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP. CURRENT TIMING OF ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 39..40
AND 41 LOOK OKAY...WITH ZONE 41 BEGINNING AT NOON.
.AVIATION...IFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WHICH SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AT KBJC AND KAPA. SURFACES FAIRLY
WARM...SO MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD INITIALLY MELT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD DROP A QUICK INCH OF
SLUSHY SNOW ON THE RUNWAYS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW TO DECREASE AFTER
06Z...COMING TO AN END AROUND 10Z WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH MAIN CONCERN SNOW POTENTIAL OVER MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. THE STORM IS A BIT DEEPER AND STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE EVOLVING PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOW TO EVOLVE
BUT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME HEAVIER SNOWFALL NOW DEVELOPING
OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THIS HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. IN THE
MEANTIME...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM MONTANA. WEAK PRESSURE
RISES MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO BUT NOT A HUGE COLD FRONT TO
REALLY LOWER TEMPERATURES QUICKLY. MAIN ISSUE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL BE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S THIS MORNING. EXPECT MUCH OF THIS PRECIP TO BE RAIN
THIS AM AND THEN BECOME A MORE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE COMPLICATED TOWARDS THE FRONT RANGE AS EXPECT HEAVIER SHOWERS
MAY TURN PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AT LEAST FOR A SHORT TERM THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON THE LIGHTNING STRIKES
REPORTED ACROSS UTAH OVERNIGHT.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE BULLISH WITH THE QPF AND
SNOWFALL WITH QPF ON THE PLAINS FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH AND
UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER HIGHER EAST SLOPES. THIS MAY
RESULT IN UPWARDS OF A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER
FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE DIVIDE. COULD SEE 2-3" OF SNOW PER HOUR
WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE QG
ASCENT. EVEN THE DRY NAM MODEL FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS NOW THE MOST
EXCITED ABOUT HEAVY SNOWFALL. MOST OF THE MODELS NOW HAVE
CONSISTENCY ABOUT SIGNIFICANT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AS FOR THE HILITES HAVE UPGRADED OR ADDED THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS
AND ZONES 33..34 TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
ADDED ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 37..41. HAVE ALSO ADDED THE BOULDER AND
DENVER AREA INTO AN ADVISORY FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AMOUNTS BE MORE MARGINAL BUT THE TIME OF HEAVIEST PRECIP MAY
COINCIDE WITH THE LATE DAY RUSH HOUR AND COULD PRESENT A PROBLEM.
FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR LOOKS LIKE 2-6"...HEAVIEST NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...AWAY FOR THE
BEST UPWARDS FORCING. SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT WITH GRADUALY CLEARING.
LONG TERM...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY STILL EXIST OVER THE FOOTHILLS
AND PALMER DIVIDE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING AND
DOWNWARD QG MOTION PUSHES IT SOUTH. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW SUN
TO SHINE...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT CLIMB TOO MUCH UNDER
THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. EXPECT READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S OVER THE PLAINS AND THE 30S TO 40S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE HIGH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN STATE
BORDER. THIS WILL MODERATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT NIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE...GOOD WARM ADVECTION AND
LEESIDE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DURING THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. MAX
TEMPERATURES READINGS INTO THE 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DAY. MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST...BUT ARE
IMPROVING. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED ITS OUTLYING FAST PROGRESSION
DURING THE LATEST MODEL CYCLE AND MATCHES BETTER WITH THE GEM. THE
GFS REMAINS THE SLOWER SOLUTION...HOWEVER HAS GOOD AGREEMENT RUN
TO RUN WITH ITSELF. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS TO LIKELY
AND THE PLAINS TO CHANCE. THIS STORM SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO
TODAY`S SYSTEM...BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS THE SYSTEM GETS
CLOSER IN TIME AND SPACE...WILL ASSESS THE NEED FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BRING BACK WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. COLDER AIR WILL
SLOWLY FILTER IN AS ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO COOL AND SATURATES.
EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH POTENTIAL
HEAVIER SHOWERS...COULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OR FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ALL SNOW AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. SNOWFALL
EXPECTED BY LATER TONIGHT TO BE IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE...HIGHEST
AT BJC/APA AND LOWER AMOUNTS NEAR KDEN. WITH WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ANY LIGHTER SNOW WILL LIKELY JUST MELT. HOWEVER
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD DROP A QUICK INCH OF SLUSHY SNOW ON
RUNWAYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING OF PRECIP TYPES
AND CHANGEOVER TO SNOWFALL.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ037-041.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ039-040.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ035-036.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ031.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1104 AM EST Fri Mar 7 2014
.Near Term [Rest of Today]...
Rain has essentially ended across the area per recent radar mosaic,
so we will carry a dry forecast for the rest of the day. Otherwise,
the stratus layer in place across the area has remained in tact over
the entire area through 16z. There was some evidence on visible
satellite that it may begin scattering out in southeast Alabama
soon. However, the latest runs of the HRRR show low clouds hanging
in over the eastern and southeastern parts of the area through
sunset, which may keep highs in the 40s to around 50 degrees today
across southwest Georgia and into the Florida Big Bend.
Therefore, we reduced high temperatures in those areas while
allowing for warmer highs in the upper 50s further west where
clouds are expected to scatter out sooner.
&&
.Prev Discussion [629 AM EST]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
High pressure will begin to build over the tonight and remain in
place through Saturday. The incoming airmass, while cold, isn`t
especially chilly. As a result, expect temperatures overnight to
drop into the mid to upper 30s.
Saturday will begin a warming trend with mostly sunny skies and
temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s. Increasing cloud
cover late in the day and into the overnight hours Saturday night
will keep temperatures a little warmer, with lows only in the mid
to upper 40s.
Sunday, the models diverge a little with the NAM being more
aggressive in returning rain chances to the region. While the
GFS/NAM/Euro all show a northern stream disturbance moving through
the Southern Appalachians, it is only the NAM that tries to phase
in some southern stream energy. Given that the GFS and Euro are in
good agreement that only a modest increase in cloud cover is
likely for Sunday afternoon, have kept rain chances out of the
forecast. Even with increasing cloud cover, still expect
temperatures to make it into the mid 70s away from the coast.
.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
We will remain in a fairly active pattern for the next 7 days, with
normal temperatures and fairly low rain chances for Sunday into
early next week. However, another strong system will be looming as
we get into the mid week with rain chances once again increasing
by Wednesday. Thursday into Friday could see a return to below
normal temperatures behind the next strong cold front.
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] While the rain has moved away from all area
terminals this morning, IFR vsby and cigs will be slow to lift.
Expect IFR condtions to continue through midday before clouds lift
during the afternoon. VFR conditions return by this evening to all
terminals.
.Marine...
Winds will gradually diminish this afternoon as a low pressure
area moves up the Eastern Seaboard. High pressure will then build
over the marine area and keep conditions tranquil into next week.
.Fire Weather...
Humidity values will remain well above critical levels through the
weekend.
.Hydrology...
Rainfall overnight is falling in the lower portion of the river
basins, and delivering 0.5 to 0.75 inches of rain from Panama City
eastward to the Suwannee River. Expect modest rises to continue on
area rivers throughout the weekend. Outside of the Apalachicola
River, minor flood levels should not be met, however, several
points will likely reach action stage by Sunday if not sooner.
Increased releases from Woodruff will push the Apalachicola River
at Blountstown very close to minor flood stage by Saturday
afternoon.
The next substantive system on Tuesday will have the potential to
deliver up to an inch of rain across region, which could lead to
some minor flooding issues on area rivers, particularly in the
Florida Panhandle.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 52 37 72 44 75 / 10 0 0 0 10
Panama City 54 44 68 51 70 / 10 0 0 10 10
Dothan 57 39 72 49 74 / 10 0 0 10 10
Albany 52 37 72 46 74 / 20 0 0 10 10
Valdosta 49 36 72 44 75 / 20 10 0 0 10
Cross City 50 36 72 45 75 / 10 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 52 43 66 51 69 / 10 0 0 0 10
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...EVANS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
545 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
AFTER A MILD DAY TODAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND A BRIEF
COOL DOWN INTO SUNDAY. SPRING-LIKE WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS BRINGS A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FANTASTIC AFTERNOON ONGOING WITH A WELL DESERVED TASTE OF SPRING FOR
HOOSIERS. PRESENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
STRONG MARCH SUN HAS ENABLED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AS OF 1930Z.
QUIET NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL BE PRECEDED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM AND THE RAP TO A LESSER EXTENT HINT AT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
UNDERDOING DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CURRENTLY...AND CONSEQUENTLY
SUSPECT THEY MAY BE OVERDOING POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SIMILAR SETUP TO THIS
MORNING WITH LOCALIZED SHALLOW GROUND FOG. DRIER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
DELAY ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SUPPORT
LEANING TOWARDS WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE
A QUICK DROP DURING THE EVENING WITH DRY AIR PRESENT...WITH TEMPS
STEADYING IN THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SLOWLY AS IT ORIENTS QUASI-PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW PATTERN. THE
DEPARTURE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
MORNING...WILL WEAKEN THE FRONT FURTHER AS IT COMES UP AGAINST
REMNANT SURFACE RIDGING. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT PRESENT
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...HARD TO JUSTIFY MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE
POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PRECIP BEGINNING AS SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT RAIN...GRADUALLY MIXING WITH THEN CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS CRITICAL THICKNESSES FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. NO SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE EXPANSION OF
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE MILD TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SPRING TEASE FOR
MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. PASSAGE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY SUPPORTS SOME WIND
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MIXING IS MAXIMIZED. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS...SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ENABLE TEMPS
TO RISE CLOSER TO WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. TRENDED WITH WARMER MAVMOS
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION REESTABLISHES BY LATE DAY. WENT A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR MONDAY HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE TEMPS. THINK MANY LOCATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT 60 DEGREES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAVMOS WAS ALSO PREFERRED FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL THERMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON A SYSTEM MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
BRING SOME RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WIDE IN HANDLING...AND AS SUCH
DISCREPANCIES PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DETAIL REGARDING THE
SYSTEM.
WILL ACCEPT MIDDLING CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH LOOKS GOOD TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING COLDER AND GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION BUT THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
ALLBLEND TEMPS WERE REASONABLE AND FEW CHANGES REQUIRED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 080000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 545 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES APPEAR WITHIN REACH AGAIN TONIGHT...SO
EXPECTING LIGHT FOG AT THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT...ROUGHLY AFTER
080600Z. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING IN MAY TEND TO
RETARD FOG DEVELOPMENT. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AFTER 080600Z...BUT GIVEN THE PRESENCE
OF THE HIGH CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY FOR NOW.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH KLAF AROUND 081000Z...AND
SHOULD BE NEAR KIND/KHUF BY 081200Z. LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER SOME LOWER CLOUD COVER AROUND
015-025 MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND IN THE POST FRONTAL ZONE.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 7 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH 081200Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
258 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
AFTER A MILD DAY TODAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND A BRIEF
COOL DOWN INTO SUNDAY. SPRING-LIKE WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS BRINGS A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FANTASTIC AFTERNOON ONGOING WITH A WELL DESERVED TASTE OF SPRING FOR
HOOSIERS. PRESENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
STRONG MARCH SUN HAS ENABLED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AS OF 1930Z.
QUIET NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL BE PRECEDED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM AND THE RAP TO A LESSER EXTENT HINT AT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
UNDERDOING DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CURRENTLY...AND CONSEQUENTLY
SUSPECT THEY MAY BE OVERDOING POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SIMILAR SETUP TO THIS
MORNING WITH LOCALIZED SHALLOW GROUND FOG. DRIER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
DELAY ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SUPPORT
LEANING TOWARDS WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE
A QUICK DROP DURING THE EVENING WITH DRY AIR PRESENT...WITH TEMPS
STEADYING IN THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SLOWLY AS IT ORIENTS QUASI-PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW PATTERN. THE
DEPARTURE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
MORNING...WILL WEAKEN THE FRONT FURTHER AS IT COMES UP AGAINST
REMNANT SURFACE RIDGING. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT PRESENT
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...HARD TO JUSTIFY MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE
POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PRECIP BEGINNING AS SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT RAIN...GRADUALLY MIXING WITH THEN CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS CRITICAL THICKNESSES FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. NO SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE EXPANSION OF
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE MILD TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SPRING TEASE FOR
MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. PASSAGE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY SUPPORTS SOME WIND
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MIXING IS MAXIMIZED. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS...SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ENABLE TEMPS
TO RISE CLOSER TO WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. TRENDED WITH WARMER MAVMOS
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION REESTABLISHES BY LATE DAY. WENT A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR MONDAY HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE TEMPS. THINK MANY LOCATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT 60 DEGREES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAVMOS WAS ALSO PREFERRED FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL THERMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON A SYSTEM MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
BRING SOME RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WIDE IN HANDLING...AND AS SUCH
DISCREPANCIES PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DETAIL REGARDING THE
SYSTEM.
WILL ACCEPT MIDDLING CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH LOOKS GOOD TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING COLDER AND GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION BUT THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
ALLBLEND TEMPS WERE REASONABLE AND FEW CHANGES REQUIRED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 07/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
VFR THROUGH THE FIRST 12-14 HOURS OF THE PERIOD LIKELY. MVFR
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MORNING MVFR FOG/HAZE HAS CLEARED AND NOW A QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY
IS IN PROGRESS AT ALL SITES WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
UNRESTRICTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN AN
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALLOWING MVFR CEILINGS AND
PERHAPS SOME FOG/HAZE/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE TO
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
AFTER A MILD DAY TODAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND A BRIEF
COOL DOWN INTO SUNDAY. SPRING-LIKE WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS BRINGS A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FANTASTIC AFTERNOON ONGOING WITH A WELL DESERVED TASTE OF SPRING FOR
HOOSIERS. PRESENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT...LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
STRONG MARCH SUN HAS ENABLED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AS OF 1930Z.
QUIET NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL BE PRECEDED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM AND THE RAP TO A LESSER EXTENT HINT AT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SHALLOW INVERSION LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
UNDERDOING DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CURRENTLY...AND CONSEQUENTLY
SUSPECT THEY MAY BE OVERDOING POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SIMILAR SETUP TO THIS
MORNING WITH LOCALIZED SHALLOW GROUND FOG. DRIER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
DELAY ARRIVAL OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SUPPORT
LEANING TOWARDS WARMER METMOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE
A QUICK DROP DURING THE EVENING WITH DRY AIR PRESENT...WITH TEMPS
STEADYING IN THE LOWER/MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY...AND TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SLOWLY AS IT ORIENTS QUASI-PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW PATTERN. THE
DEPARTURE OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
MORNING...WILL WEAKEN THE FRONT FURTHER AS IT COMES UP AGAINST
REMNANT SURFACE RIDGING. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT PRESENT
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...HARD TO JUSTIFY MUCH HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE
POPS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PRECIP BEGINNING AS SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT RAIN...GRADUALLY MIXING WITH THEN CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS CRITICAL THICKNESSES FALL WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. NO SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE EXPANSION OF
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE MILD TEMPS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SPRING TEASE FOR
MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. PASSAGE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY SUPPORTS SOME WIND
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MIXING IS MAXIMIZED. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS...SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ENABLE TEMPS
TO RISE CLOSER TO WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. TRENDED WITH WARMER MAVMOS
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION REESTABLISHES BY LATE DAY. WENT A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR MONDAY HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE TEMPS. THINK MANY LOCATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT 60 DEGREES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAVMOS WAS ALSO PREFERRED FOR LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL THERMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH WARM ADVECTION AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN. THE RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
THOUGH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THICKNESSES LOOK LIKE A RAIN SNOW MIX
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN IN
THE SOUTH AND THEN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM EXITS. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF THE LOW TRACK AND
HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES SO POPS AND PRECIP TYPE ARE FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY ON.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 07/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
VFR THROUGH THE FIRST 12-14 HOURS OF THE PERIOD LIKELY. MVFR
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MORNING MVFR FOG/HAZE HAS CLEARED AND NOW A QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY
IS IN PROGRESS AT ALL SITES WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
UNRESTRICTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN AN
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALLOWING MVFR CEILINGS AND
PERHAPS SOME FOG/HAZE/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE TO
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1212 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. THEN...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. ANY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
LIGHT SNOW OF FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEXT WEEK WILL START OF MILD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE
50S AND LOWER 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN...A SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION IN BY MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
STILL DEALING WITH LOCALIZED SHALLOW GROUND FOG IN SOME SPOTS AS OF
1430Z...BUT THIS IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
IS ERODED AND LOW LEVEL MIXING COMMENCES. TEMPS WARMING QUICKLY AND
ALREADY WELL INTO THE 30S IN MANY LOCALES.
FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SUBTLE
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE. MAIN FOCUS IS ONCE AGAIN ON
TEMPS...AND WILL BE BUMPING THEM UP A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THIS THINKING SUPPORTED BY RAP SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW
MIXING LEVELS TO AROUND 925-950MB DURING PEAK HEATING. PARCELS
BROUGHT DOWN DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE MIXING LEVEL GENERATING MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IN A NUTSHELL...EXPECT A WONDERFUL REST OF THE DAY. ENJOY IT...
HOOSIERS DESERVE A DAY LIKE THIS AFTER WEATHER EXPERIENCED OVER THE
LAST FEW MONTHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND TRAILING
UPPER TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 12Z SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH. RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...SEEN BEST IN 1000-850 MILLIBAR
FRONTOGENESIS...SHOULD LAST LESS THAN 10 HOURS. ALSO MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW ONLY SMALL TO AT TIMES NO QPF. THIS ALL POINTS TO CONTINUING
WITH CHANCE POPS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST
ANY RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...BEFORE IT SHOULD BE OVER WITH AFTER 06Z. WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AROUND AND THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...PREFER TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW MOS. BLEND LOOKS OK
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND WITH MODEL TIME
SECTIONS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A
DRY COLUMN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LITTLE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO THE WARMER 00Z GFS MOS. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO STRAY FAR FROM ALLBLEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH WARM ADVECTION AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN. THE RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
THOUGH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THICKNESSES LOOK LIKE A RAIN SNOW MIX
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN IN
THE SOUTH AND THEN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM EXITS. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF THE LOW TRACK AND
HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES SO POPS AND PRECIP TYPE ARE FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY ON.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 07/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
VFR THROUGH THE FIRST 12-14 HOURS OF THE PERIOD LIKELY. MVFR
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MORNING MVFR FOG/HAZE HAS CLEARED AND NOW A QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY
IS IN PROGRESS AT ALL SITES WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
UNRESTRICTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN AN
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALLOWING MVFR CEILINGS AND
PERHAPS SOME FOG/HAZE/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE TO
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1259 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TODAY. INCREASED AFTERNOON
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 50S ALREADY.
SHOULD CLIMB CLOSE TO 60 IN MANY AREAS. ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER A BIT
TO ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER REAL CHANGES TO THIS
POINT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUE TO SHOW UP IN THE FAR EAST...THOUGH NO
REPORTS OR OBS OF ANY PCPN MAKING IT TO THE SFC HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.
HAVE CONTINUED LOW POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS ASSIGNING FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES TO THE WX TERM. ALSO...ISSUED A GRAPHICAL NOWCAST TO ADDRESS
THIS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO MAINLY TWEAK THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS PER
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS IS THROWING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BACK WEST INTO FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE NEAREST MEASURABLE PCPN STILL APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A
COUNTY OR SO ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE RAIN AND
SNOW HAVE BEEN REPORTED. A FEW SPECKS OF LIKELY JUST VIRGA ARE
SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST RADAR SCANS OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA VARY MAINLY BY RIDGE AND VALLEY
WITH THE FORMER IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHILE THE LATTER HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S. SHOULD ANY OF THOSE ROGUE RETURNS REACH
THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING ON ELEVATED
SFCS...BUT THE RISK OF ACTUAL ICY SPOTS DEVELOPING IS QUITE REMOTE.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MINIMAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
SITUATION FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST IF THE RETURNS
BECOME MORE DISTINCT AND PERSISTENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL TAKE THE SOUTHEAST LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST AND JUST OFF SHORE AS IT PASSES CAPE HATTERAS LATER THIS
EVENING. UPSTREAM FROM THIS...EAST KENTUCKY BE IN THE MIDST OF FLAT
RIDGING AT MID LEVELS WITH SOME HINTS OF VERY WEAK ENERGY RIDING EAST
OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. A DEVELOPING TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST WILL
INTERACT WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM LATER
SATURDAY. THIS NORTHERN FEATURE WILL THEN CUT SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BLEND OF THE SIMILAR
GFS AND ECMWF PREFERRED OVER THE SLOWER GEM SOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET AND MILD PERIOD OF WEATHER IN
THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SOUTHEAST LOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
COURT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH LATER THAT EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE BROUGHT IN SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS STARTING LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.
USED THE CONSSHORT AND BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T...TD...
AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM THE CONSALL AND BCCONSALL WERE BLENDED INTO THE
EXISTING FORECAST BEFORE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. AS FOR POPS...HAVE GONE A
BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR POPS LATE SATURDAY...OTHERWISE THEY
WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN REGIME TO
REIGN ACROSS THE CONUS. DETAILS WITHIN THE GENERAL FLOW REMAIN MORE
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN. DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE AREA FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A LESS
PHASED...FASTER...AND WEAKER SOLUTION ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...WHILE
THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE PHASED...SLOWER...AND DEEPER. AS SUCH...HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THE GIVEN BLENDED GUIDANCE...ALLOWING FOR GOOD CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND CHANCE POPS
CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME SNOW BEFORE THE MOISTURE
EXITS.
FOR TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL MODERATE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS PEAKING ON TUESDAY IN THE MID
60S. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN TO BELOW BY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN INCREASE TO HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE IN
THE DAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. A QUIET PATTERN
WILL PERSIST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AND LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH SOME
WEAK WAVE ENERGY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AFTER SUNSET THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
COULD BE RAIN OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY TO CHANGE EVERYTHING TO SNOW. HRRR AND
GFS SEEM TO BE A PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING AND WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR SOME FREEZING PRECIP WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST.
NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS TONIGHT OR AMOUNT
OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. SNOWY SURFACES COULD SEE A QUICK
GLAZE OF ICE...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS TONIGHT.
SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH WHERE IT DOES SNOW BUT
AGAIN...EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS VERY LITTLE IMPACTS FROM THIS
PRECIPITATION.
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE STALLING OUT OF ANY PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
INDIANA BORDER UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ANY PRECIPITATION
EAST LATE IN THE DAY. ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP SATURDAY THAT WILL BE IN FORM OF SNOW AND
AGAIN...LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IF ANY OCCURS AT ALL. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK REACHING THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MINS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES. TRANQUIL
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO BRING A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PCPN BY LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
LOTS OF GULF MOISTURE TO DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. A CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST PCPN WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH TO SE OF OUR FCST AREA.
12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE IS STILL FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE LOW AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED PCPN SHIELD AND SUGGESTS THE NORTHERMOST PERIPHERY OF
THE PCPN MAY CLIP SOUTHERN MI WITH SOME SNOW WEDNESDAY. IT
SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL STAY SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TO MID ATLANTIC REGIONS.
THE 12Z UKMET AND 12Z GLOBAL GEM DO NOT SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL PHASE UNTIL LATE WEEK WITH THE SFC LOW
REALLY NOT STRENGTHENING UNTIL IT REACHES THE EASTERN CONUS AS
THAT OCCURS. 12Z GFS GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS THAT SYSTEM WELL SOUTH
OF OUR REGION.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AT
LEAST FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TRANQUIL WX IS EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO
MAINLY MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPS DUE TO LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SNOW MELT TODAY.
IN ADDITION A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.
CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT MIXED PCPN BUT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE THE MOST LIKELY PCPN TYPE.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM CAUSING CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN MAINLY MVFR THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG/LIGHT PCPN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL SNOW MELT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE FREEZING HIGH TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING WILL HELP TO SLOWLY ERODE SOME OF THE SNOW PACK AND
ICE COVER IN LOWER MICHIGAN. NO REAL RAINMAKERS OR HEAT WAVES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO LEADING TO PRETTY STABLE RIVER
CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1138 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT FCSTS EARLIER THIS MRNG TO EXPAND THE WINTER
WX ADVY EWD AND CANCEL COUNTIES IN W-CENTRAL MN. HAVE GOTTEN A FEW
REPORTS OF ICING IN ERN MN INTO WRN WI...AND MAINLY WANTED TO
ACCOUNT FOR A FEW NARROW BANDS OF FRZA/IP SHIFTING FROM MN INTO WI
AHEAD OF THE CDFNT...ESP CONSIDERING THE INTERSTATE CORRIDORS N
AND E OF THE TWIN CITIES. SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE REMAINING
PORTION OF THE ADVY BY NOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT
TERM... THAT BEING AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT PCPN ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA... AND WITH A NICE ELEVATED WARM WEDGE IN PLACE WE/RE
SEEING SOME FZRA. COULD SEE SOME SLEET AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ALOFT... WITH PERHAPS A
BRIEF TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST. THINGS ARE BEING FORCED
BY SOME FRONT RELATIVE UPGLIDE... ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. WE/LL LOSE MUCH OF THAT UPPER SUPPORT THIS MORNING... AND
WILL NEED TO RELY ON THE LOWER LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE... INCLUDING THE HIGH RESOLUTION OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND
HOPWRF... WEAKEN THE PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... AND
DON/T DO MUCH MORE THAN TRACE PCPN AS THINGS DROP THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. IF ANYTHING REMAINS... IT COULD BE PURE LIQUID FOR THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AS TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO GET
UP ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER... WITH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREA ALREADY SEEING
MIXED PCPN AND WITH THE COLDER AIR ON THEIR DOORSTEP... PUT OUT A
SHORT DURATION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE POTENTIALLY
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WHICH WILL GREET FOLKS UP THERE AS THEY
AWAKEN THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH SOME COLD AIR STRATOCU IN
THE BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER... RIDGING DOES LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT... WHICH
SHOULD HELP BREAK UP MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER... WITH THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA HOLDING ONTO IT LONGEST. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY CLOSE
TO THEIR MAX NOW OVER THE NORTHWEST... WILL BE AT THEIR MAX EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA... AND OVER THE
SOUTH/EAST LATE THIS MORNING... WITH READINGS FALLING BEHIND THE
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
LONG TERM STILL LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET...WITH MILDER TEMPS PREVAILING
FOR ONCE. OUTSIDE OF A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...IT WILL BE A DRY PERIOD AS WELL.
THE COLDEST AIR IN THE PERIOD WILL COME RIGHT OUT THE GATE ON
SATURDAY AS A 1035-1040MB HIGH WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER
THAT...THE JET STREAM GETS SHUNTED WELL NORTH INTO CANADA...WHICH
WILL SLAM THE DOOR TO THE ARCTIC SHUT /FOR A SHORT TIME ANYWAYS/ AND
FLING THE DOOR TO THE PACIFIC WIDE OPEN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS WE
WORK THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THAT ALL TO
FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN RETURNING...BUT WITH ONE
BIG DIFFERENCE...BOTH FEATURES LOOK TO BE SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER EAST
THAN WHAT WE SAW MUCH OF THE WINTER...WHICH MEANS THE BLOW OF COLD
AIR WE GET FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A MONDAY NIGHT FROPA
WILL BE OF THE GLANCING VARIETY...WITH THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR
HEADING FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CHINOOK WINDS AND A PACIFIC AIRMASS QUICKLY RETURNING
FOR THURSDAY.
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE NOT MUCH WAS CHANGED...WITH THE PROVERBIAL
SLIGHT UPWARD NUDGE TO THE HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY COMPLETED.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH MOST OF THE AREA TOPPING 40 SUNDAY AND
EVERYONE JOINING IN ON THE FUN MONDAY AS THE MAINLY WEST WINDS WILL
HELP KEEP THE FOG/STRATUS IN CHECK. ONLY PERIOD THAT HAS A HIGHER
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ARE THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE START OF
THE EVENING ANYWAYS...THE SFC RIDGE WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE ERN
CWA...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LIKELY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO QUICKLY FALL OFF AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY NIGHT. NET RESULT HERE IS
THAT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER MAINLY WRN WI COULD END UP SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE ADVERTISED.
AS FOR THAT PRECIP POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ON THE IDEA OF A BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS SRN MN. THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A CLOSED LOW BEGINS
TO EMERGE OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS. EVENTUALLY...THESE TWO WAVES LOOK
TO BECOME ONE...BUT THAT WILL COME LATE ENOUGH IN THE GAME TO LAY
DOWN A SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW
ENGLAND. FOR US...THAT NRN STREAM WAVE WILL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING
OF THE UPPER JET FROM MN ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WITH A DECENT
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SETTING UP OVER SRN MN INTO IA. UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THIS REGION WILL WORK WITH A MID LEVEL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO HELP KICK OFF AN FGEN PRECIP BAND MON NIGHT. THICKNESSES
FROM THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW THIS PRECIP MAYBE STARTING AS RAIN...BUT
QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS CAA BRINGS THICKNESSES DOWN INTO
SNOW TERRITORY. THE GEM IS A WARM OUTLIER WITH THE MAJORITY IF ITS
PRECIP FALLING AS PLAIN RAIN. WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE...CONTINUE
TO MOVE POPS HIGHER IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE
THE P-TYPE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE IDEA OF THE ECMWF/GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
ALL TERMINALS SHOWING GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH WEAK INTERMITTENT
BANDS OF SHRA/FZRA SHIFTING OFF TO THE E. ALL SITES WILL BE
DEALING WITH MVFR CEILINGS THRU LATE AFTN...WHILE ERN MN INTO WRN
WI SITES WILL ALSO HAVE ADDED MVFR VSBY CONCERNS...POSSIBLY
INTERMITTENT IFR CONCERNS. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE
ONCE THE CDFNT ITSELF PUSHES THRU AND WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR TO IMPROVE VSBY AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO SCOUR OUT LOW
CLOUDS. ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY LATE EVENING AND WILL REMAIN AS
SUCH TONIGHT THRU TMRW. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NW BY
EARLY AFTN...THEN SETTLE DOWN BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT AND EVEN
BECOME LGT/VRBL FOR A PERIOD NEAR DAWN...LASTING THRU THE LATE
MRNG.
KMSP...NEED TO INITIALIZE AS SOLID MVFR...INCLUDING CEILINGS
SUB-1700 FT...FOR THE START OF THE 07/18Z TAF. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE ABOUT 2-3 HRS IN AS A CDFNT ARRIVES FROM THE
NW...HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS. VFR CONDS LOOK TO
SETTLE IN BY LATE EVENING AND THEN REMAIN AS VFR THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SCT MIDLVL CU CLOUDS TMRW
AFTN...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. NW WINDS THRU THIS EVE BECOME LGT/VRBL
OVERNIGHT BEFORE RESUMING FROM THE W LATE TMRW AFTN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. SW WIND 15-25 KT.
SUN NIGHT...VFR. W WIND 10-20 KT BCMG NW LESS THAN 10 KT.
MON...VFR. W WIND 5-15 KT.
MON NIGHT AND TUE...MVFR CIGS PSBL. W WIND 5-15 KT BCMG NW.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ044-045-052-
053-061>063.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL CHANCES ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER TODAY. ALSO...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL BANDS...SO THIS WILL BE
NOTED IN THE HWO.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SLID THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING...A BREEZY NORTH WIND HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO A LOW THAT STALLED OUT OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
PANHANDLES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING A TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS WERE
HITTING IN AND OUT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LEANED ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND DID NOT ISSUE A CHEAP LAST MINUTE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT TODAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE CALMING DOWN.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIED TO ELEVATED OMEGA AND
FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB TROUGH
CURRENTLY SLIDING OVER THE REGION. THE SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD BE ORIENTED IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND.
THE BAND WILL SLIDE OVER THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT TODAY WITH ITS
SOLUTION...SO LEANED THE FORECAST AND POPS TOWARDS THIS OUTCOME.
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNRISE. LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL IS FORECAST...BUT AREAS WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS ONGOING
WILL EXPERIENCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 TO 3 MILES FOR A
BRIEF TIME PERIOD. THE SREF HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS EVENT WELL FOR
VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAS PLACED THE WORST
VISIBILITIES ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN
00Z AND 04Z.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
OVERVIEW...OUTSTANDING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL
KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING WITH LOTS OF SUN ALLOWING FOR A GOOD WARM UP...WHICH SHOULD
EASILY MAKE SUNDAY THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON
SUNDAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
PLAINS. THE SFC WIND WILL LIGHTEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
MAKING FOR AN EVEN NICER DAY...LIKELY THE NICEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
JUST A LIGHT BREEZE.
TUESDAY...THE MORNING MAY START OUT MILD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY SINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MAY END UP BEING GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
PASSES THROUGH. WILL CALL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID
50S SOUTH...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES GIVEN
FRONTAL TIMING ISSUES AS WE ARE STILL 4 DAYS OUT. THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT DO APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER SFC LAYER
MAY SEE RAIN INITIALLY AND THEN SNOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TIMING.
WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...BUT NO SEVERE COLD
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. RATHER THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD WITH HIGHS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND NORMAL. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN APPEARS WARM AND DRY. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY UNDERCUT AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...BUT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE OVERWHELMINGLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE TAF WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL TURN TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNSET FOR LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DURING SNOWFALL. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE
NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER
TODAY. SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS...AND WILL BE
PRETTY CONSISTENT UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL
NOW APPEARS TO BE BRIEF...WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BETWEEN A
COUPLE HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE SNOW IS IN QUESTION...SO A TEMPO
GROUP WAS USED TO ILLUSTRATE THIS UNCERTAINTY. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TO THE TERMINAL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
SOUTHWEST ZONES COULD MIX TO AROUND 825 MB...WHICH WOULD PULL THE
DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE SFC ALONG WITH SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS. USED
A MIXED DOWN TOOL TO COME UP WITH DEWPOINTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS MORE REALISTIC THAN THE ALLBLEND DEWPOINTS.
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...GUERRERO
FIRE WEATHER...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1134 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
THE CHANCE FOR PCPN TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.
UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM 00Z FRIDAY SHOWED THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES.
AT 300 MB...TWO MAIN JET SEGMENTS WERE NOTED. ONE WAS OVER ONTARIO
(115 KNOTS) AND THE OTHER WAS BACK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA (110
KNOTS). AT 500 MB...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES HAD 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 80 METERS IN NORTHERN NEVADA. AT 700 MB...
THERE WAS A WARM WEDGE WITH TEMPERATURES OF ZERO DEGREES C OR
WARMER FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WARM WEDGE
WAS ALSO EVIDENT AT 850 MB WITH TEMPERATURES OF 15 DEGREES C AS
CLOSE AS RAPID CITY AND NORTH PLATTE.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST...IT WILL HELP A COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF PCPN. HRRR AND MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL DO NOT BRING
MUCH INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...DECIDED TO
STAY WITH A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...06Z NAM AND 00Z GFS.
ALSO CONSIDERED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR DETAILS. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED
FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN ABOUT 600 MB AND 700 MB. THE PCPN TYPE WILL
BE RAIN INITIALLY...THEN A MIX...THEN MOSTLY SNOW AS THE COLD AIR
DEEPENS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. FAIRLY BRISK NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY.
TONIGHT...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST THIS EVENING THEN END AFTER
09Z IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. FOR LOWS...HAVE
STAYED A LITTLE ABOVE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS.
LITTLE OR NO PCPN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN PLANE AND FAIRLY
POOR MIXING CONDITIONS. THAT HIGH PUSHES EAST AND WITH BETTER MIXING
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S (WITH THE WARMEST READINGS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL BUILD
INTO WESTERN CANADA BY TUESDAY...WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
MONDAY WILL BE VERY MILD...PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. COOLER 40S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT INCREASE.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS
HAVE ALSO MOVED IN ALONG WITH GUSTY N/NW WINDS. THIS SHOULD BE THE
TREND THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS DECREASING
SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED A TEMPO GROUP FOR A MENTION OF
SNOW. CIGS MAY COME DOWN TO IFR IN ANY SNOW. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
MIX OF SLEET...BUT DO EXPECT THIS TO QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1203 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO WARNING OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE AND OUT OVER RATON RIDGE WITH MODEST INCREASE IN
FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATION. STATEMENT OUT...ALONG WITH FRESH
PUBLIC ZONES.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1107 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NM OVER 24 HR PERIOD...WITH
SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM AS THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FROM PACIFIC FRONT IN THE
WEST AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THE EAST. WIND GUSTS FOR MOST TAF
SITES COULD REACH 30 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MTN OBSCURATION
ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MAINLY
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. FROM THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREA SATURDAY IF AN UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT MODELS UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS. QUIET
WEATHER WITH A WARM UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER AGAIN MIDWEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS MAKING THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM A HEADACHE. NAM INSISTS THE
SYSTEM WILL BE A CLIPPER TYPE WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHILE ECMWF/GFS STILL ON
BOARD DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW BACK OUT OVER SW NM BY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THEY ALL SEEM TO AGREE THE NE WILL GET SOMETHING OUT OF
THIS...AND GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A QPF/SNOW BOMB OVER THE NE THAT
STILL SEEMS OVERDONE. COLD FRONT...OR AT LEAST A WIND SHIFT...IS
QUICKER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO...AND RUC SHOWS IT
COULD REACH THE FAR NE IN TIME FOR LUNCH AT THE CLAYTON DAIRY QUEEN.
IN ANY CASE...HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH SOME WINTER WX ADVYS FOR THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SAN JUAN MTS AS WELL AS THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS STARTING AT 6 PM AND RUNNING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG RATON
MESA...AND PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL UP SLOPE MAY BE AN ISSUE...AND HAVE FAVORED
THE ECMWF/GFS PATTERN WISE...WHICH PUSHES AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV
EARLY SATURDAY...SO HAVE KEPT THE TREND SATURDAY OF INCREASING POPS
WEST AND DECREASING EAST. MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS...DEPENDING ON
12Z MODEL TRENDS.
CLEARING STILL INDICATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH IN THE EVENING.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE NE MAY BE TOO
WARM DEPENDING ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR LACK OF. ANOTHER SYSTEM DUE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN OUT OF SYNC
WITH EACH OTHER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER NORTHEASTERN NM
WITH A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING BEHIND IT. THE
LATTER SYSTEM WILL BRING A NOTABLE COOL DOWN TO THE FORECAST AREA
INTO SATURDAY WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. FOR TODAY...SOME BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE DEVELOPING WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON IN SEVERAL ZONES.
HOWEVER...DEW POINTS WILL RISE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL IN
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP RH ELEVATED ENOUGH TO
AVOID WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. VENTILATION WILL
BE EXCELLENT IN MOST ZONES...AND WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BREAK OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER BEFORE DUSK.
A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL INVADE EASTERN NM THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER THE FAR PLAINS NEAR THE OK/TX BORDERS.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATING IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS...NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME RAIN
WILL INITIALLY BE OBSERVED IN SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS...BUT SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT. BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BE SPILLING BEYOND GAPS/CANYONS
AND INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS...INDUCING MORE GUSTY WINDS. THESE WILL
LAST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE FORESEEN FOR SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUPPORT FROM ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH AND SOME UP SLOPE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE
WITH READINGS RUNNING 5 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FULLY SHIFT SOUTH OF NM BY SUNDAY...BRINGING A
DRIER AIR MASS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION MAY STAGNATE OVER SOME CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN AREAS SUNDAY. BY MONDAY WARMING TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
MIXING HEIGHTS...AND STRONGER BREEZES WILL BRING ABOUT BETTER
VENTILATION RATES. A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE PATTERN THEN FLIPS BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE ONE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BE CLOSING IN ON THE STATE...ALTHOUGH SOME
LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST ON TRACK AND TIMING. THE PATTERN WOULD
APPEAR TO FAVOR STRONGER WINDS WITH ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONTAL
INTRUSION LATE TUESDAY.
52
&&
&&
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-528>531.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.
&&
$$
SHY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1107 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NM OVER 24 HR PERIOD...WITH
SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM AS THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FROM PACIFIC FRONT IN THE
WEST AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THE EAST. WIND GUSTS FOR MOST TAF
SITES COULD REACH 30 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MTN OBSCURATION
ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MAINLY
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. FROM THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREA SATURDAY IF AN UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT MODELS UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS. QUIET
WEATHER WITH A WARMUP SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER AGAIN MIDWEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS MAKING THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM A HEADACHE. NAM INSISTS THE
SYSTEM WILL BE A CLIPPER TYPE WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHILE ECMWF/GFS STILL ON
BOARD DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW BACK OUT OVER SW NM BY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THEY ALL SEEM TO AGREE THE NE WILL GET SOMETHING OUT OF
THIS...AND GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A QPF/SNOW BOMB OVER THE NE THAT
STILL SEEMS OVERDONE. COLD FRONT...OR AT LEAST A WIND SHIFT...IS
QUICKER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO...AND RUC SHOWS IT
COULD REACH THE FAR NE IN TIME FOR LUNCH AT THE CLAYTON DAIRY QUEEN.
IN ANY CASE...HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH SOME WINTER WX ADVYS FOR THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SAN JUAN MTS AS WELL AS THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS STARTING AT 6 PM AND RUNNING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG RATON
MESA...AND PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE MAY BE AN ISSUE...AND HAVE FAVORED
THE ECMWF/GFS PATTERN WISE...WHICH PUSHES AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV
EARLY SATURDAY...SO HAVE KEPT THE TREND SATURDAY OF INCREASING POPS
WEST AND DECREASING EAST. MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS...DEPENDING ON
12Z MODEL TRENDS.
CLEARING STILL INDICATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH IN THE EVENING.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE NE MAY BE TOO
WARM DEPENDING ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR LACK OF. ANOTHER SYSTEM DUE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN OUT OF SYNC
WITH EACH OTHER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER NORTHEASTERN NM
WITH A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING BEHIND IT. THE
LATTER SYSTEM WILL BRING A NOTABLE COOLDOWN TO THE FORECAST AREA
INTO SATURDAY WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. FOR TODAY...SOME BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE DEVELOPING WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON IN SEVERAL ZONES.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL RISE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL IN
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP RH ELEVATED ENOUGH TO
AVOID WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. VENTILATION WILL
BE EXCELLENT IN MOST ZONES...AND WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BREAK OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER BEFORE DUSK.
A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL INVADE EASTERN NM THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER THE FAR PLAINS NEAR THE OK/TX BORDERS.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATING IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS...NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME RAIN
WILL INITIALLY BE OBSERVED IN SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS...BUT SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT. BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BE SPILLING BEYOND GAPS/CANYONS
AND INTO CENTRAL VALLEYS...INDUCING MORE GUSTY WINDS. THESE WILL
LAST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE FORESEEN FOR SATURDAY AS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUPPORT FROM ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE
WITH READINGS RUNNING 5 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FULLY SHIFT SOUTH OF NM BY SUNDAY...BRINGING A
DRIER AIRMASS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION MAY STAGNATE OVER SOME CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN AREAS SUNDAY. BY MONDAY WARMING TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
MIXING HEIGHTS...AND STRONGER BREEZES WILL BRING ABOUT BETTER
VENTILATION RATES. A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE PATTERN THEN FLIPS BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE ONE TUESDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BE CLOSING IN ON THE STATE...ALTHOUGH SOME
LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST ON TRACK AND TIMING. THE PATTERN WOULD
APPEAR TO FAVOR STRONGER WINDS WITH ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONTAL
INTRUSION LATE TUESDAY.
52
&&
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-512>515-527>531.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1220 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY AND THEN OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL WILL END
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY AND MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A
RISK FOR SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS
EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. I HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
BASED ON A REVIEW OF IMAGERY FROM AREA SURF CAMS WHICH SUGGEST
BREAKING WAVES ARE AVERAGING FIVE FEET OR LESS. ALSO THE WIND
ADVISORY ALONG THE NC COAST HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. RADAR SHOWS
PLENTY OF SHOWERS STILL SWIRLING AROUND THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE QUITE LIGHT SO I HAVE TRIMMED BACK QPF
AMOUNTS DESPITE QUITE HIGH POPS CONTINUING FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM KINGSTREE-CONWAY-MYRTLE BEACH. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...
IN YESTERDAY`S BATTLE OF MODELS REGARDING SURFACE LOW POSITION FOR
THIS MORNING...THE GFS EASILY WON VERSUS THE NAM. THE SURFACE LOW IS
ANALYZED NEARLY 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR CURRENTLY...SHOWN BY
BUOY WIND DIRECTIONS AND BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRL ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THICK CLOUDS EXTEND ALL THE WAY BACK INTO
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS UPPER
SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED ON THE GA/SC BORDER WEST OF CHARLESTON
WILL SWING ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
OFFSHORE BY SUNSET.
RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW PLENTY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS A
RESULT OF MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295-300K THETA SURFACES
(GENERALLY 6000-10000 FT AGL) PLUS VERY MODEST CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE WARM NOSE CENTERED ABOUT 8000 FEET UP. THIS
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BECOME LARGE ENOUGH FOR A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD FUEL DEEPER AND MORE
VIGOROUS SHOWERS THAN MIGHT DEVELOP SIMPLY DUE TO THE THERMAL
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC PROCESSES LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO NEAR 100
PERCENT FROM INTERIOR HORRY COUNTY NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PEE
DEE REGION...I-95 CORRIDOR...AND INTO WHITEVILLE AND ELIZABETHTOWN.
POPS FOR THE COASTAL CAPE FEAR REGION HAVE BEEN RAISED INTO THE
80-90 PERCENT RANGE. ALONG THE SANTEE RIVER WHERE SHOWERS ARE JUST
ENDING NOW...ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE MAY ACTUALLY DEVELOP SHORTLY
MAKING IT TOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TO OCCUR TODAY. I SHOW A
DIMINISHING TREND IN POPS THERE THROUGH THE DAY.
WARMER AIR HAS ADVECTED ONSHORE IN THE WILMINGTON AREA THIS MORNING
WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THIS RELATIVELY MILD AIR SHOULD BE VERY SHORT-LIVED. AS THE SURFACE
LOW PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD AND PULLS THE VERY COLD WEDGE AIRMASS
ACROSS INTERIOR NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S HERE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONLY BUDGE A FEW DEGREES TODAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS.
WE ARE HARD AT WORK ON A SUMMARY OF WIND GUSTS AND RAINFALL TOTALS
FROM LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR IT TO BE POSTED AS A PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEEKEND WITH
ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE ONLY CHANGES WITH AN
ABBREVIATED FORECAST SESSION HAVE BEEN TO RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY TO MATCH GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DUE TO THE ONGOING STORM SYSTEM...THE
EXTENDED FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATE SUN
INTO MON FOLLOWED BY BRIEF WEAK COLD ADVECTION. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUD AS THE FRONT PASSES BUT LACK OF DYNAMICS
AND DEEPER MOISTURE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES CLOSE TO ZERO.
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
CLIMO...SHOWING JUST HOW WEAK THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SUN
NIGHT FRONT IS.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A COMPLEX
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS MID WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE
CLIMO TUE AND WED. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED WED AND THU AS
COMPLEX SYSTEM IMPACTS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MID LEVEL
PATTERN...MAINLY LATER IN THE PERIOD...BOTH MAINTAIN ELEVATED PRECIP
CHANCES WED. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS THE AMOUNT OF AMPLIFICATION
WED/THU AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
HAS IMPLICATIONS ON THE POP FORECAST FOR THU. ECMWF SOLUTION IS
SLOWER AND PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH THU. INHERITED FORECAST CARRIED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POP FOR THU AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN ON D7 WILL
NOT MAKE CHANGES. EITHER SOLUTION ENDS UP WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW
CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH AS EXPECTED THE
WEAKER/FASTER GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CIGS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/IFR
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW BRINGS MORE RAIN TO OUR CWA.
IN FACT... MANY SITES ARE REPORTING VARIABLE CIGS CENTERED RIGHT
AROUND 1KFT. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...WILL INCLUDE BKN IFR CIGS
FOR ALL SITES WITH AN OVC MVFR CLOUD LAYER. EXPECT RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TO KEEP CIGS AT MOST SITES JUST BELOW 1KFT. SHORT
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE TEMPO IFR VSBYS AS WELL.
NORTH WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...BECOMING N-NW AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CLEARING
SKIES... SATURATED GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR FOG...ESPECIALLY AT THE INLAND TERMS.
SATURDAY WILL BE VFR WITH W-NW WINDS AOB 8 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...SEAS ARE DIMINISHING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
FORECAST...SO I HAVE MADE 1-2 FOOT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS. GUSTS
AT FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE STILL GALE-FORCE IN THE PAST HOUR...BUT
WE`LL REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR CONTINUING THE GALE WARNING WITH THE 3
PM FORECAST PACKAGE AS WINDS HAVE TO START DIMINISHING AT SOME
POINT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS...
YESTERDAY`S GFS MODEL WAS CORRECT: THE LOW IS CENTERED NEARLY 100
MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR THIS MORNING...DEFINED BY WIND DIRECTIONS AT
BUOYS AND BY A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE LOW SHOULD SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON REACHING A POINT NEARLY 100 MILES EAST OF HATTERAS THIS
EVENING. AN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE LOW IS
MAINTAINING STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH RECENT GUSTS MEASURED AT 39
KNOTS AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...32 KNOTS AT TOPSAIL
ISLAND...AND 31 KNOTS AT BOTH THE OCEAN CREST PIER AND JOHNNIE
MERCER PIER. BASED ON TRENDS IN RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY
THE LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL) I HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE
WARNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NC COASTAL WATERS. NO CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE SC COASTAL WATERS.
POWERFUL WINDS LAST NIGHT PRODUCED TRULY EPIC SEAS: 20 FEET OUT AT
FRYING PAN SHOALS AND 10 FEET AT THE NEARSHORE CAPE FEAR HARBOR
BUOY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE AT BOTH LOCATIONS THESE MAXIMUM WAVE
HEIGHTS WERE ALMOST EXACTLY ONE-QUARTER OF THE TOTAL OCEAN DEPTH FOR
EACH GIVEN BUOY LOCATION. SEAS ARE DIMINISHING NOW THAT WINDS HAVE
BACKED AROUND TO NORTHERLY AND SPEEDS ARE DIMINISHING. IT WILL TAKE
AWHILE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF CAPE FEAR...FOR SEAS TO DIMINISH
ENOUGH TO MAKE A RECREATIONAL BOAT TRIP SAFE OR COMFORTABLE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...ABBREVIATED FORECAST SESSION DUE TO ACTIVE
WEATHER. FORTUNATELY CWF FOR THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET.
MAIN FEATURES WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
FRONT SUNDAY. ESSENTIALLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS OF WIND SATURDAY
INCREASING PRE AND POST FRONTAL SUNDAY. NO CHANGES TO SIGNIFICANT
SEAS FORECAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DUE TO THE ONGOING STORM SYSTEM...THE EXTENDED
FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED FROM THUR DAY AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW SUN WILL BECOME NORTHWEST SUN NIGHT FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT. DURATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
SHORT AND LACK OF COLD ADVECTION OR PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT. WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST LATER MON AND MON
NIGHT AS WEAK BUT LARGE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...ENOUGH TO PUSH SPEEDS INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE.
LATE IN THE PERIOD GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP AS SYSTEM TO THE
WEST APPROACHES. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES BUT ON THE HIGH END OF
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT SUN AND MON BUILD BY A FOOT
OR SO FOR TUE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
AMZ254-256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1229 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND BLSN SHOULD END BY 20Z...WITH JUST SOME
DRIFTING THEREAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.
EARLIER THIS MORNING A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
RECEIVED REPORTS FROM OTTER TAIL LAW ENFORCEMENT THAT RAIN WAS
FALLING. ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA...BUT
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BAND HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO WILL CANCEL EARLY.
COLD FRONT AT 09 UTC WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM ROSEAU TO
DETROIT LAKES TO WAHPETON AND IT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING AT TIMES FROM 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH 15 UTC AS RAP SHOWS 925 HPA FLOW UP TO 35
KTS. THEREAFTER...GRADIENTS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WILL KEEP BLOWING SNOW MENTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS THIS AREA RECEIVED SOME FRESH SNOW
LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...BLOWING NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE ELSEWHERE. SOME DRIFTING STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST/WEST ROADWAYS.
DESPITE INCREASING SOLAR...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WELL BELOW FREEZING SO ANY
MELTING AND SUBSEQUENT PUDDLES FROM YESTERDAY WILL ICE OVER AND
RESULT IN SLICK CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR ABERDEEN
SD AROUND 12 UTC SATURDAY...SO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT NOCTURNAL COOLING. LOWS LIKELY TO DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHWEST IA. WILL START TO SEE
SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY WITH THE
925 TO 800 HPA LAYER INCREASING 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGHS
ACROSS EASTERN ND TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
NORTHWEST ANGLE. ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER SURFACE
TROUGH PASSAGE. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE LOW RISE TO
BETWEEN 0 AND +4 C ON SUNDAY...SO EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NEAR ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONTINUED
TO KEEP MONDAY FAIRLY WARM WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT FASTER ON BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN INTO
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH DIGS DOWN...BUT THE
NORTHERN BRANCH SHOULD HELP BRING DOWN ANOTHER COLD AIR SURGE FOR
TUESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF ONLY SMALL POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
AND WILL ADJUST LATER AS NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
BLSN CONTINUES TO REDUCE VSBY TO IFR VICINITY KGFK WITH POCKETS OF
-SN AFFECTING KBJI AND KFAR. NNW WINDS OVER 20 KTS SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON...FIRST AT KDVL THEN TO THE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL REGION WIDE FROM LATE AFTERNOON ON AS WINDS EASE TO BELOW 10
KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1020 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 30KT AT TIMES IN THE
VALLEY...COUPLED WITH SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS IS CREATING
REDUCED VSBYS LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
VALLEY. THEREFORE...WILL ADD SOME BLOWING SNOW FURTHER SOUTH
UNTIL 19Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.
EARLIER THIS MORNING A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
RECEIVED REPORTS FROM OTTER TAIL LAW ENFORCEMENT THAT RAIN WAS
FALLING. ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA...BUT
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BAND HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO WILL CANCEL EARLY.
COLD FRONT AT 09 UTC WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM ROSEAU TO
DETROIT LAKES TO WAHPETON AND IT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING AT TIMES FROM 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH 15 UTC AS RAP SHOWS 925 HPA FLOW UP TO 35
KTS. THEREAFTER...GRADIENTS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WILL KEEP BLOWING SNOW MENTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS THIS AREA RECEIVED SOME FRESH SNOW
LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...BLOWING NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE ELSEWHERE. SOME DRIFTING STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST/WEST ROADWAYS.
DESPITE INCREASING SOLAR...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WELL BELOW FREEZING SO ANY
MELTING AND SUBSEQUENT PUDDLES FROM YESTERDAY WILL ICE OVER AND
RESULT IN SLICK CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR ABERDEEN
SD AROUND 12 UTC SATURDAY...SO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT NOCTURNAL COOLING. LOWS LIKELY TO DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHWEST IA. WILL START TO SEE
SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY WITH THE
925 TO 800 HPA LAYER INCREASING 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGHS
ACROSS EASTERN ND TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
NORTHWEST ANGLE. ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER SURFACE
TROUGH PASSAGE. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE LOW RISE TO
BETWEEN 0 AND +4 C ON SUNDAY...SO EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NEAR ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONTINUED
TO KEEP MONDAY FAIRLY WARM WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT FASTER ON BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN INTO
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH DIGS DOWN...BUT THE
NORTHERN BRANCH SHOULD HELP BRING DOWN ANOTHER COLD AIR SURGE FOR
TUESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF ONLY SMALL POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
AND WILL ADJUST LATER AS NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
ON BALANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
VALLEY AIRFIELDS LIKELY TO CLEAR OUT LATE THIS MORNING AND AT KBJI
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1145 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
NORTHERN PORTION OF PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED AS EXPECTED...AND HAVE
ALLOWED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHEAST TO EXPIRE AT 14Z.
UNFORTUNATELY...ALTHOUGH FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WAS NOT THAT
EXTENSIVE...DRIFTING SNOW YESTERDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCED A LAYER OF ICE
ON UNTREATED ROADS THAT WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF MELTING TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL THROUGH 20S THROUGH THE DAY.
HAVE REWORKED POPS A LITTLE FOR THIS MORNING...AS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAND BEGINNING TO REACH THE GROUND IN A FEW AREAS. DO NOT EXPECT
THIS BAND TO AMOUNT TO MUCH...BUT AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 COULD SEE A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO. MORNING MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULT AGREEING ON
WHETHER PRECIP WILL BECOME HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED. HRRR AND NAM ARE
LARGELY DRY...WHILE RAP PRODUCES UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE LATTER
SEEMS OVERDONE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS HOWEVER...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH DRIER THINKING FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING IN THE 30S...WILL FALL INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY.
CURRENTLY SEEING A LIGHT AREA OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS WILL BE IN A WEAKENING
STATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS OVERHEAD. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS...BUT IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE THIS MORNING ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE
THIS MORNING WOULD EITHER BE LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. AS
WE HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...AND A WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE INTERACTION
OF THIS FRONT AND WAVE COULD ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO
INCREASE SOME SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE HI RES MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRY
SOLUTION...SHOWING THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS. ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL WOULD INITIALLY BE
RAIN OR SLEET...BEFORE COLD AIR MOVES IN AND CHANGES THINGS TO LIGHT
SNOW. BUT AGAIN...NOT SURE WE EVEN SEE ANYTHING...AND IF WE DO
AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY A COATING OF SNOW.
WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...15
TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SOME MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WINDS ARE PROBABLY TOO LIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS...WITH DRIFTING SNOW BEING THE MAIN POTENTIAL
ISSUE. SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY TO PARTLY
CLEAR BY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE ON
LOWS...MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO...WITH A FEW SPOTS
POTENTIALLY AROUND OR JUST BELOW ZERO FROM BROOKINGS INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. WITH THE NORTHERLY BREEZE...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO
THE 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON TEMPERATURES...AND PRECIP CHANCES
ON TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THROTTLING BACK TEMPERATURES.
ON SATURDAY...WARM FRONT BEGINS TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AND WITH DEEP SNOW COVER
ACROSS THE EAST...SIDED WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO ISOTHERMAL FROM 925
HPA. MODELS SHOW A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH...WHICH IF THICK ENOUGH COULD HAMPER WARMING SOMEWHAT. FRONT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE WELL TO AREAS THAT
HAVE LIMITED SNOW COVER...BUT IN AREAS FURTHER EAST FOLLOWED SNOW
CLIMATOLOGY FOR HIGHS WHICH WAS VERY CLOSE TO GOING FORECAST. STILL
APPEARS TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS HANGING AROUND ON SUNDAY
AS WELL THAT COULD LIMIT WARMING SOME.
WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT SNOW PACK TO DWINDLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH 925
HPA TEMPS WARMING INTO THE TEENS...COULD BE A NICE MILD DAY ACROSS
THE REGION...THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION OF FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE IS CERTAINLY A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT...AND WITH
MELTING SNOW PACK SHOULD BE PLENTY OF NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE TO LEAD
TO SATURATION. QUESTION THOUGH AS TO WHETHER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO LIMIT
FOG POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED SOME
WATCHING.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CRITICAL IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE. AS OF RIGHT NOW..APPEARS
AS THOUGH MOISTURE WOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH BRIEF SATURATION.
THEREAFTER...APPEARS AS THOUGH ANOTHER WARMING TREND
ENSUES...HOWEVER...LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS IN THE EAST DUE TO DEEP
AND LIKELY REMAINING SNOW PACK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
MVFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
THOUGH SOME BREAKS TO SCATTERED DECK BELOW 3KFT ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. LIGHT PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
THROUGH 00Z-02Z...THOUGH DRY LAYER BETWEEN STRATUS AND MID CLOUD
DECK ABOVE 6-8KFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. NEVERTHELESS HAVE
ADDED A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES TO KSUX TAF 21Z-00Z...MAINLY TO
INDICATE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF ANY PRECIP THREAT...THOUGH WIDESPREAD
OR PROLONGED VISIBILITY REDUCTION IS NOT EXPECTED FROM ANY PRECIP.
LINGERING MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST EAST OF I-29 IS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AS NORTH WINDS GUST NEAR OR
ABOVE 25KTS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH