Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/06/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1044 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXITING
EASTERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRYING NOTED IN WV LOOPS BEHIND
IT. ISOLATED MAINLY OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY STRUGGLED TO
WARM INTO THE 30S TODAY...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WANING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THESE AREAS MAY COOL QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
OTHER AREAS HOWEVER WILL SEE WAA WITH LEE TROFFING OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH LOWER 30S FOR PORTIONS OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WITH NAM12 AND RAP SUGGESTING
FOG FROM ROUGHLY KLHX EASTWARD. HOWEVER...ALSO LOOKING AT NEXT
ROUND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
DISTANCE SPEED TOOL PUTS THIS INTO THE AREA BY 03-04Z...AND IF CLOUD
COVER IS THICK ENOUGH...MAY PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/UPPER LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE
CEN/NRN CA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW INTO THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH LEE TROFFING AND POCKETS OF BREEZY WEST WINDS ACROSS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY...EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL AID IN DEEPER
MIXING. SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AFTER
21Z...SPREADING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES LOOK FAIRLY STEEP...SO SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY WET SNOW WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS.
FORTUNATELY THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO LAST FOR LONG WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD PICK UP A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES ON AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH
OF A SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE STATE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST NAM CONTINUING TO BE THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM AND IS THEREFORE PRINTING OUT MUCH LESS QPF ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALSO TRENDED LESS AMPLIFIED AND A TAD FURTHER
NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...THOUGH ARE STILL
PRINTING OUT MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH BETTER MOISTURE
AND UVV WITH LF QUAD OF ASSOCIATED JET. THE NAMS TRACK RECORD OVER
THE PAST FEW MONTHS HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR...AND WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE PIKES PEAK REGION THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PALMER DVD WITH PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE PLAINS STARTING AS RAIN BEFORE BECOMING MIXED WITH AND
CHANGING TO SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEHIND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN...WILL NEED TO
SEE HOW AMPLIFIED THIS SYSTEM IS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE OR LESS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MTS AND PLAINS.
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY...THOUGH
STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...WARMER WESTERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE
SOME SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITHIN THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTS WITH WESTERLY GAP FLOWS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...40S AND 50S ACROSS THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS AND MAINLY
30S AT THE PEAKS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE
AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY....WITH THE ECMWF STILL INDICATING A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS TRACK REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DECENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS AND SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST H7-H5 FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
DRY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
656 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED AS WELL AS ADDING
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT TO MATCH WITH
CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES
MADE.
H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
FLURRIES...OR EVEN A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
RADAR TRENDS KEEP THESE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL CWA...AND
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WITH AGREEMENT FROM NAM12 SHOWS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE HIGH THIS
EVENING...SO ANY FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD MOSTLY
DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THEREFORE JUST HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR NEW LONDON COUNTY AT THE
MOMENT.
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
TO 15-20 MPH ACROSS NYC/SURROUNDING SUBURBS/LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN
CT IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE CENTER OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ARCTIC
AIR MASS SINKS INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 0 TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND FROM 0 TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AND DRY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRES ENTRENCHES
ITSELF JUST NORTH OF NY STATE. USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND ACTUALLY LOWER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
LOW TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 6.
THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND AN EASTERLY GRADIENT SETS UP FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THINK MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH
NEARLY CALM WINDS...AND THAT WOULD BE OPTIMAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS WOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THERE. INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST...AND THAT WOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER IN NYC.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT RECORD LOW TEMPS WOULD BE SET DURING THIS
TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODELS IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS STORM MOVING UP THE
CAROLINA COAST AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS...HIGH PRESSURE FORM THE GULF
COAST APPROACHES THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE MILDER CONDITIONS. A COLD MAY PASS THROUGH
THE AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. ONE
LAST BAND OF BKN060 CIGS SHOULD IMPACT MAINLY THE CT AND LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
WINDS GENERALLY N INCREASING TO 10-12 KT BETWEEN 02Z-04Z.
FCST GUSTS 20-25 KT COULD END UP BEING MORE OCNL IN NATURE.
WINDS THEN BECOME NE 8-12 KT AFTER DAYBREAK...AND THEN VEER ENE
BY AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS TONIGHT COULD BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS TONIGHT COULD BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS TONIGHT COULD BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS TONIGHT COULD BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS TONIGHT COULD BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS TONIGHT COULD BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT-SAT...GENERALLY VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.MON...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KT. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP FOR THE
OCEAN/SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS AS WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA...AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.
SEAS MAY HOVER AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR A FEW
HOURS. TRANQUIL CONDS OTHERWISE EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
641 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED AS WELL AS ADDING
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT TO MATCH WITH
CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES
MADE.
H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
FLURRIES...OR EVEN A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
RADAR TRENDS KEEP THESE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL CWA...AND
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WITH AGREEMENT FROM NAM12 SHOWS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE HIGH THIS
EVENING...SO ANY FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD MOSTLY
DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THEREFORE JUST HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR NEW LONDON COUNTY AT THE
MOMENT.
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
TO 15-20 MPH ACROSS NYC/SURROUNDING SUBURBS/LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN
CT IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE CENTER OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ARCTIC
AIRMASS SINKS INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 0 TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND FROM 0 TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AND DRY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRES ENTRENCHES
ITSELF JUST NORTH OF NY STATE. USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND ACTUALLY LOWER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
LOW TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 6.
THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND AN EASTERLY GRADIENT SETS UP FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THINK MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH
NEARLY CALM WINDS...AND THAT WOULD BE OPTIMAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS WOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THERE. INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST...AND THAT WOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER IN NYC.
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT RECORD LOW TEMPS WOULD BE SET DURING THIS
TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODELS IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS STORM MOVING UP THE
CAROLINA COAST AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS...HIGH PRESSURE FORM THE GULF
COAST APPROACHES THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE MILDER CONDITIONS. A COLD MAY PASS THROUGH
THE AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.
WINDS GENERALLY N...5-10 KTS...INCREASING 10-12 KTS AFTER 02Z.
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS PSBL OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY END UP BEING MORE OCNL
IN NATURE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TOMORROW
MORNING.
INCREASING MID-HIGH LVL CLOUDS TODAY. SCT 3000 FT CIGS PSBL LATE
AFTN...LOW CONFIDENCE OF BKN030. CIGS SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH
00Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH
00Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH
00Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH
00Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH
00Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH
00Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU-SAT...GENERALLY VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF LIGHT PCPN PSBL IN THE MORNING.
.MON...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF LIGHT PCPN PSBL.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KT. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP FOR THE
OCEAN/SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS AS WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA...AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.
SEAS MAY HOVER AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR A FEW
HOURS. TRANQUIL CONDS OTHERWISE EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
959 AM EST Tue Mar 4 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Low level isentropic ascent, coupled with an upper level shortwave
produced a large area of convection across the western Gulf
overnight/early this morning. The mid-level diabatic heating max
will move east rather quickly today in the fast westerly flow
regime. The 00z ECMWF and recent RAP runs have initialized the
spatial extent of the convection more accurately and will thus
weight the forecast for this afternoon more heavily on these
pieces of guidance.
This mornings surface analysis showed yesterday`s cold front
draped across south central Florida, and on through the central
Gulf. Cool high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic forced an area
of low pressure to weaken and drift south into a more favorable
environment. This morning, a remnant trough runs south along the
lee side of the Appalachians, into Apalachee Bay. A sharp
inversion around 1500ft marks the delineation between the stable
saturated low layers and a large area of dry air aloft. Low clouds
remain trapped in this stable low layer. Expect the surface trough
to continue to gradually weaken and drift west with the very
stable cool dome spreading southwest behind it. Low clouds will
likely linger for most of the day, though some scattering is
expected along and ahead of the trough. For now, will advertise
the best chance for scattering along and west of a line from
Alligator Point, up through the southeast Alabama/southwest
Georgia state line. As one would imagine, the thick low cloud
cover will greatly limit afternoon heating. Expect highs to not
reach 50 degrees across our northeast Georgia counties, with upper
50s expected in the aforementioned region where scattering is
expected to take place. The exact position of the scattering line
is highly uncertain, so the takeaway here is that if clouds
scatter away where you are, highs should climb into the upper 50s.
Otherwise, expect temperatures to remain much cooler.
Not expecting much in the way of rain today, and any rain that
does fall will be over our extreme western counties late in the
day as the aforementioned mid-level PV anomaly links up with the
low-level surface trough. In this region expect a mix of weak low
level WAA, to combine with weak low/mid layer isentropic ascent,
but more significantly, strong mid-level diffluent flow in the
entrance region of an intensifying jet. Rain chances will only
increase through Wednesday as discussed further, below.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...
Low-end MVFR/IFR ceilings will persist all day at KABY, KVLD, and
possibly KTLH and KDHN. Expect scattering to VFR at KECP later
this afternoon. Rain spreading in from the west overnight will
reinforce the low ceilings area wide once again tonight.
&&
.Prev Discussion [609 AM EST]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Fast split flow will continue across the CONUS. No sooner will one
short wave trough move through our region (late tonight-Wednesday)
when another will already be approaching over the Southern Plains.
We`re forecasting an 80% PoP overnight for our entire forecast area,
though QPF amounts are generally less than a third of an inch. Even
though this short wave will be dampening as it moves past our
region, high PoP will continue across much of the region on
Wednesday due to the proximity to a frontal system (the cold front
that passed through Monday) and the rapid approach of the next short
wave trough. High PoPs will continue through Thursday morning, then
end quickly from west to east as a well-defined mid tropospheric dry
slot develops over the forecast area during the day on Thursday.
Our QPF total from tonight through Thursday ranges from 0.75 to
1.50 inches. Although both of the upper troughs will be rather
energetic (with decent height falls and strong winds aloft), both
the GFS and ECMWF continue to place our forecast area north of the
surface frontal system. This means that while there could be
occasional thunderstorms, the boundary layer will be stable and
these storms will be elevated. Thus we don`t expect any damaging
winds or tornadoes. The one possible exception could be in North
FL (around the Cross City area), where the GFS and ECMWF forecast
at least some SBCAPE. A surface low track slightly farther to the
north would increase this threat. Conversely, a more southern
track would eliminate the threat.
With all of the clouds/precipitation and a "wedge" of cool air in
place over GA and AL, high temperatures will be rather chilly
Wednesday- with highs in the mid 50s (except mid 60s around Cross
City). The wedge will get eroded some on Thursday, with highs in
the mid to upper 50s in GA and AL, and in the mid to upper 60s in
FL. Lows will be in the lower to mid 40s across most of the
forecast area tonight (upper 40s around Cross City), and mid to
upper 40s Thursday night (except mid 50s Cross City).
.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
On Thursday night..as trough moves offshore and low exits into Atlc
rain decreases then ends from SW-NE. Ridging builds in aloft and
high pressure at surface with deep layer dry air on Fri but
progressive pattern develops quickly next Wrn trough which begins
to move quickly Ewd progressively flattening Ern ridge with
steering flow becoming increasingly SWLY with rising temps. This
trough reaches Gulf region by Sun eve with some model differences
mainly in timing with GFS more progressive. The GFS drags a weak
cold front across Sun eve the ECMWF keeps front to our west thru
Mon.
Will go with 0-30% PoPs SW-NE Thurs night...0-30% Fri...NIL POPS
rest of period except 40-20% NW-SE POPs on Sun with the front.
Highs upper 60s Fri...70 to 75 Sat thru Mon. Lows Thurs night
around 40 north to near 50 south...40-45 Fri night...near 50 Sat
and Sun nights.
.Marine...
It appears that winds and seas have peaked (around 15 KT with 2 to
4 ft seas), and all of the NWP guidance takes winds down to around
10 KT by this afternoon. As the pressure gradient tightens between a
wedge of high pressure to our northeast and a stalled front to our
south, east winds will increase to the 10 to 15 KT range overnight,
and continue through Thursday.
.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for
the foreseeable future. The only notable item is that dispersions
will remain quite low over the next couple of days.
.Hydrology...
Rainfall amounts from Monday were mostly a tenth of an inch or less,
and not enough to significantly alter local river/stream flows. A
series of upper level disturbances later today through Thursday will
deliver roughly an inch of rain (basin average) to much of the
region. This projected total is well below Flash Flood Guidance, so
flash flooding is not expected. The latest SREF and GFS based
hydrology ensembles (MMEFS) indicate that it`s likely that several
of our FL sites will go to action stage during the next week or so,
but are not expected to go to flood stage.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 59 45 55 49 63 / 10 80 70 70 50
Panama City 59 47 59 51 62 / 20 80 70 70 40
Dothan 51 41 56 46 54 / 40 80 50 70 40
Albany 48 40 54 45 52 / 20 80 60 70 60
Valdosta 52 42 54 49 57 / 10 80 70 70 70
Cross City 66 49 65 55 68 / 0 80 60 70 70
Apalachicola 60 49 60 52 64 / 10 80 70 70 50
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
406 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
256 PM CST
SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE FIRST
ARRIVING TONIGHT. THE SECOND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK. A BRIEF
WARM UP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...TEMPS REBOUND MONDAY WITH DARE
I SAY NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED?
REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TRICKY FORECAST PERIOD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENT THAT THE
ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE SNOW AT SOME POINT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW AND FOR HOW
LONG.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND IT
WILL SHIFT EAST AND FILL TONIGHT. ALOFT THE SHORTWAVE THAT FORCED
SNOW THIS MORNING IS TO OUR EAST WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH
TEXAS. THE NEXT TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES AND IT WILL
PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
A LARGE HIGH IS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND IT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE FEATURES
A DEEP LAYER OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT COINCIDES WITH A SATURATED
LAYER. HOWEVER...THE SATURATED LAYER IS WARMER THAN THE IDEAL
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...BUT IT IS BELOW 0C. SNOW IS EXPECTED...BUT
IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE FORCING INDICATES. ALSO
PUSHED THE TIMING OF THE SNOW BACK BY A FEW HOURS. THE NAM12 LOOKS
TOO FAST WHILE THE RAP IS TOO SLOW. AS SUCH USED OUR LOCAL WRF MODEL
FOR TIMING...AND AMOUNTS AS THE WRF SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE PRECIP. EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF I-88 AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
SOUTH OF I-88. THE 4 INCH AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED ABOUT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING 2 TO 3 INCHES. NOTE THESE VALUES ARE LESS THAN THE
MAJORITY OF COBB OUTPUT...AND THIS IS DUE TO THE CONCERNS ABOUT SNOW
GROWTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF FORCING...DECIDED TO
SLIGHTLY RAISE SNOWFALL TOTALS.
SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN IL...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3AM. THE BAND WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
MID MORNING...AND MAY SHIFT QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. THE
LOCAL WRF INDICATED THE BAND WOULD SHIFT SOUTH QUICKLY...BUT DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT FAST. SNOW IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. FORCING WEAKENS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SO EXPECTING THE
SNOW SOUTH OF I-80 TO BE SLOW AND STEADY.
IN ADDITION TO THE BAND OF SNOW...MAY SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW RIGHT NOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST.
DELTA T/S ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THE THICK ICE COVER WILL LIMIT
MIXING. BUT INCLUDED A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN PERIODS OF FLURRIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE JUMPED WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WEST.
HOWEVER THINKING WE WILL STILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. SO ENDED UP WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS...AND TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS ALONG THE LAKE. TEMPS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TOMORROW WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL TO THE MID TEENS OVER NW INDIANA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WHILE
ITS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 30. WINDS TURN SOUTH
BEHIND THE HIGH AND WAA KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING AND POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 40S!
A SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH ITS SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL.
HAVE IT STARTING AS RAIN AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS THE COLD
AIR FUNNELS BACK IN. 850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -3C AND THE
MAIN POINT IS THE COLD AIR REALLY IS NOT THAT COLD AND IT WILL NOT
LAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S.
EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
AND THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLDER AIR SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WARM UP. SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY HELP TEMPS BECOME NORMAL IF
NOT ABOVE NORMAL. RAISED ALLBLEND TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO AND
STILL MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS FEATURES
PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SNOW DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY WED
MORNING...WITH AT LEAST PERIODIC IFR VSBY LIKELY
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
QUIET CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INCLUDING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...AS WEAKER SURFACE
PATTERN IN PLACE. VFR CEILINGS ARE TRYING TO DEPART EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CLOUD DECK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP VFR CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR A TAD LONGER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER MOVES BACK OVERHEAD...INCLUDING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUD DECK AROUND THE 2500-0300 FT RANGE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO PROVIDE SNOW
AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE START TIME.
ALTHOUGH...MORE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ACTUAL DURATION OF BETTER
SNOWFALL. HAVE THIS BETTER SNOW LASTING THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT
ITS POSSIBLE THE DURATION COULD LAST INTO THE MID DAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS SEVERAL FACTORS COULD COME INTO PLAY INCLUDING A LAKE
COMPONENT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON HOLDING ONTO A
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. MORE THAN LIKELY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT DID TRY AND PROVIDE A
DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WOULD BE MORE OF A WEST
NORTHWEST COMPONENT. THEN EXPECT AN NORTHEAST TO EAST DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TIMING/INTENSITY
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINDER OF FORECAST ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY. CHANCE OF
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
224 PM CST
THE MAIN STORY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IS LIKELY THE ICE COVERAGE WHICH
IS NOW NEAR 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE LAKE...THE HIGHEST SO FAR THIS
SEASON. WE WILL START TO SEE SOME DAYS WITH TEMPERATURE PUSHING THE
FREEZING MARK DURING THE AFTERNOONS...INCLUDING FRIDAY AND A FEW
DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A SLOW MELT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH
WESTERLY WINDS TURNING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A RIDGE AXIS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS
TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY...AND THEN SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT DOES
TIGHTEN SOME ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESHENING UP INTO THE 15 TO 25
KT RANGE...PERHAPS A FEW 30 KT GUSTS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
256 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
256 PM CST
SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE FIRST
ARRIVING TONIGHT. THE SECOND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK. A BRIEF
WARM UP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...TEMPS REBOUND MONDAY WITH DARE
I SAY NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED?
REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TRICKY FORECAST PERIOD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENT THAT THE
ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE SNOW AT SOME POINT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW AND FOR HOW
LONG.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND IT
WILL SHIFT EAST AND FILL TONIGHT. ALOFT THE SHORTWAVE THAT FORCED
SNOW THIS MORNING IS TO OUR EAST WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH
TEXAS. THE NEXT TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES AND IT WILL
PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
A LARGE HIGH IS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND IT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE FEATURES
A DEEP LAYER OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT COINCIDES WITH A SATURATED
LAYER. HOWEVER...THE SATURATED LAYER IS WARMER THAN THE IDEAL
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...BUT IT IS BELOW 0C. SNOW IS EXPECTED...BUT
IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE FORCING INDICATES. ALSO
PUSHED THE TIMING OF THE SNOW BACK BY A FEW HOURS. THE NAM12 LOOKS
TOO FAST WHILE THE RAP IS TOO SLOW. AS SUCH USED OUR LOCAL WRF MODEL
FOR TIMING...AND AMOUNTS AS THE WRF SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE PRECIP. EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF I-88 AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
SOUTH OF I-88. THE 4 INCH AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED ABOUT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING 2 TO 3 INCHES. NOTE THESE VALUES ARE LESS THAN THE
MAJORITY OF COBB OUTPUT...AND THIS IS DUE TO THE CONCERNS ABOUT SNOW
GROWTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF FORCING...DECIDED TO
SLIGHTLY RAISE SNOWFALL TOTALS.
SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN IL...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3AM. THE BAND WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
MID MORNING...AND MAY SHIFT QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. THE
LOCAL WRF INDICATED THE BAND WOULD SHIFT SOUTH QUICKLY...BUT DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT FAST. SNOW IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. FORCING WEAKENS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SO EXPECTING THE
SNOW SOUTH OF I-80 TO BE SLOW AND STEADY.
IN ADDITION TO THE BAND OF SNOW...MAY SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW RIGHT NOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST.
DELTA T/S ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THE THICK ICE COVER WILL LIMIT
MIXING. BUT INCLUDED A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN PERIODS OF FLURRIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE JUMPED WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WEST.
HOWEVER THINKING WE WILL STILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. SO ENDED UP WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS...AND TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS ALONG THE LAKE. TEMPS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TOMORROW WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL TO THE MID TEENS OVER NW INDIANA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WHILE
ITS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 30. WINDS TURN SOUTH
BEHIND THE HIGH AND WAA KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING AND POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 40S!
A SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH ITS SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL.
HAVE IT STARTING AS RAIN AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS THE COLD
AIR FUNNELS BACK IN. 850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -3C AND THE
MAIN POINT IS THE COLD AIR REALLY IS NOT THAT COLD AND IT WILL NOT
LAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S.
EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
AND THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLDER AIR SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WARM UP. SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY HELP TEMPS BECOME NORMAL IF
NOT ABOVE NORMAL. RAISED ALLBLEND TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO AND
STILL MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS FEATURES
PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* VARYING WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT REMAINING LIGHT.
* VFR CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
QUIET CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INCLUDING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...AS WEAKER SURFACE
PATTERN IN PLACE. VFR CEILINGS ARE TRYING TO DEPART EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CLOUD DECK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP VFR CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR A TAD LONGER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER MOVES BACK OVERHEAD...INCLUDING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUD DECK AROUND THE 2500-0300 FT RANGE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO PROVIDE SNOW
AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE START TIME.
ALTHOUGH...MORE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ACTUAL DURATION OF BETTER
SNOWFALL. HAVE THIS BETTER SNOW LASTING THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT
ITS POSSIBLE THE DURATION COULD LAST INTO THE MID DAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS SEVERAL FACTORS COULD COME INTO PLAY INCLUDING A LAKE
COMPONENT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON HOLDING ONTO A
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. MORE THAN LIKELY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT DID TRY AND PROVIDE A
DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WOULD BE MORE OF A WEST
NORTHWEST COMPONENT. THEN EXPECT AN NORTHEAST TO EAST DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH CEILING TRENDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
* LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SNOW TRENDS...INCLUDING EXACT
TIMING/DURATION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY. CHANCE OF
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
224 PM CST
THE MAIN STORY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IS LIKELY THE ICE COVERAGE WHICH
IS NOW NEAR 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE LAKE...THE HIGHEST SO FAR THIS
SEASON. WE WILL START TO SEE SOME DAYS WITH TEMPERATURE PUSHING THE
FREEZING MARK DURING THE AFTERNOONS...INCLUDING FRIDAY AND A FEW
DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A SLOW MELT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH
WESTERLY WINDS TURNING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A RIDGE AXIS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS
TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY...AND THEN SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT DOES
TIGHTEN SOME ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESHENING UP INTO THE 15 TO 25
KT RANGE...PERHAPS A FEW 30 KT GUSTS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1148 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
319 PM CST
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOR SNOW CHANCES...NAMELY TUE
NIGHT AND WED...AND THEN TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS IT
GETS CHALLENGING WEIGHING FACTORS SUCH AS CLOUD COVER...INCREASING
MARCH SUN ANGLE...SNOW COVER...AND FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...
A STRONG AND BARELY MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OF 1035MB IS IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA GOING INTO THIS EVE. WHILE HEIGHTS ARE
SLOWLY RISING ALOFT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WITHIN FAST
PACED WNW FLOW IS APPROACHING THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE ON WATER VAPOR IS SEEN ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WITH MID
CLOUD ALREADY INTO SOUTHWEST WI. THE RAP AND NAM SOLUTIONS OF
SIMULATED WATER VAPOR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND HAVE
INCORPORATED THAT APPROACH INTO SKY COVER FORECASTS TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING CLOUDY BY MID-EVE. THIS WILL MAKE IT TRICKY
AS THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS THIS
EVE BUT THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OFFSET THIS SOME. HAVE LEANED THE
MILDER ROUTE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...WITH A LIMITED DROP-OFF
THIS EVE AND THEN TEMPS CLIMBING OVERNIGHT. HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPS
FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHWEST IN WHERE MID CLOUDS
WILL TAKE THEIR LONGEST TO THICKEN.
THE FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL BE PRIMARILY TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO THIS SHORT WAVE...AS IT OFTEN IS
WITH THESE PROGRESSIVE ARE LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS.
THUS AM NOT TOO EXCITED FOR SNOW INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY DEEP ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SO HAVE
LEANED AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST 12Z NAM AND CLOSER TO THE RAP AND
GLOBAL MODELS...WITH POSSIBLY A DUSTING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-88.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES EARLY IN NORTHEAST
IL...THE DAYTIME TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A GAP BETWEEN WAVES
LIKELY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE. WITH A MUCH WARMER STARTING
POINT THAN TODAY...HIGHS LOOK TO REBOUND MORE TOWARD WHERE THEY
SHOULD BE GIVEN THE 925MB TEMPS...BUT FAR FROM WHERE THEY SHOULD
BE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE HAS A BETTER PATH TO FAVOR OUR AREA AND ALSO
HAS MORE ELONGATED /LONGER LASTING/ FORCING TIED TO ITS UPPER
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENESIS. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE AREA SEEING SNOW...NAMELY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING...AND IT MAKES GOOD SENSE GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. SO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS. THE SNOW LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT
GIVEN TOP DOWN METHOD AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES...WITH MODEST RATES
AT TIMES WHEREVER THAT WEST-TO-EAST BAROCLINIC GRADIENT OF THE
SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS. HAVE 1-2.5 INCHES FORECAST FOR A LOT OF THE
AREA. HOW MUCH A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY GETS INVOLVED WEDNESDAY WILL BE KEY AS WELL...AS THAT
COULD BOOST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. ALSO OF NOTE
IS POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SETUP ONCE AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT FOR NORTHEAST IL. MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS MORNING
WOULD POINT TOWARD NOT AS GOOD OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THERE ARE
SIGNS OF CONVERGENCE AND BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER RH...AND FOR THAT
HAVE CONTINUED POPS ACROSS CHICAGO INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MTF
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGH/LOW TEMPS...WITH LOW CHANCE POSSIBILITIES FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD.
GENERAL WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN SEVERAL WAVES OF
ENERGY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THESE
FEATURES AND RESULTANT QPF. ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO VARY WITH
THE STRENGTH OF A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AND THEN IS A TAD MORE BULLISH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...WHATEVER DEVELOPS SHOULD BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE
AND QUICKLY EXIT...AND WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. PATTERN TRIES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK WHILE SHOWING SIGNS OF SLIGHT WARMING...AS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE LARGE
VORT MAX SHIFTS EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. TAIL END OF THIS
ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AS WINDS
BACK AND WAA OCCURS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WARMER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW THEN POSSIBLE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT MOVE OVER THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH...THIS WARMING WILL BE BRIEF AS COLDER AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW PRE-DAWN THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
* ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...BEGINNING BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10KT.
BY TOMORROW EVENING A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TOMORROW EVENING AND WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY...BUT
STILL LESS THAN 10KT.
OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW.
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED
IMPULSE CROSSING IOWA AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD
PUSH INTO NWRN IL BY ARND 08Z. THE LOWEST LEVELS REMAIN VERY
DRY...SO ANY SNOW MAY INITIALLY BE VERY LIGHT AND CIGS SHOULD BE
SLOW TO LOWER. GIVEN THE DRY AIR THAT THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...STILL ANTICIPATE THAT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN LOWER END VFR...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION IN FAST NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER...WITH HAVE
BETTER SFC SUPPORT WITH SOME LIFT INVOF THE WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD
SET UP. AT THIS POINT...WILL INTRODUCE A PROB30 FOR SNOW TOMORROW
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WOULD ANTICIPATE RAMPING UP THE IMPACT OF THE
SNOW AS DETAILS BECOME A BIT MORE CERTAIN...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE
PREVAILING LOWER END MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TOMORROW
NIGHT...WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AND RESULTING CIG/VIS IMPACTS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ONSET OF SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY. CHANCE OF
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
227 PM CST
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS ALL OF LAKE MI THROUGH
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND HELP TO BRING A TRAILING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO...HOWEVER A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE WINDS A TAD TO 10 TO 20 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. FURTHER SOUTH THE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH
TUESDAY EVENING OF THE LAKE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING BACK
ACROSS THE LAKE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATED WITH A GENERAL TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY SOUTH
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
AID IN KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 20 KT.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1111 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
Tonight:
Some mid to high level clouds will continue tonight in association with
a jet streak passing off to the southeast. Southerly winds will become
SSW/SW after midnight. The downslope winds should lead to higher minimums
for much of the region, except over deeper snowpack. Calling for mid to
upper 20sF by Elkhart to upper single digits to lower teens across the
deeper snowpack (generally along and east of Highway 183).
Tomorrow:
The HRRR is suggesting fog formation tonight, but this is different
than what the WRF is suggesting. Think the model fields might be too
heavily influenced by the model snowpack. If fog does develop, it will
be patchy.
Lee troughing will continue tomorrow. Downslope, compressional warming
is expected ahead of a frontal boundary. This front will traverse the
region after my short-term period ends. A fairly impressive gradient
of maximum temperatures is expected across the forecast area of responsibility.
Low 60sF will be possible across the western zones, where the warmest
850 hPa temperatures are expected along with the strongest downslope
wind component. Have undercut temperature guidance farther east across
the heavier snowpack areas, where low 40sF are possible for highs. Any
precipitation will remain outside of my period.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
This extended period will be dominated by a two different upper
level troughs passing through, one on Tuesday night and Wednesday,
and the other one on Friday night and Saturday.
In the nearer term, Tuesday night should be cold with lows in the
mid 20s in the Hays and LaCrosse areas, ranging to the mid 30s down
down in our southwest corner near Elkhart. I think the front will
be in the I-70 corridor about midnight, with some overrunning
precipitation beginning by midnight, in the form of snow and/or
sleet. Forecast sounding from nearly every model shows a warm
tongue aloft, for the early part of the event. The front will
spill southward through Southwestern and South Central Kansas on
Wednesday, and most of the rest of our forecast area will see some
snow/sleet early Wednesday, changing over to rain by late morning.
The dynamics will be stronger to our north, so 20 to 30 percent
precipitation chances will suffice for us. Only light QPF amounts
are expected, generally less than 0.03 inch liquid, and perhaps up
to a half inch of snow in any particular location. Wednesday`s
high temperatures Will range from 39F in Hays to 52F in Johnson
City.
Wednesday night through Friday will see some warming, with the
coolest highs across any accumulation of snow. Wednesday night
minimum temperatures will still be similar to mins Wednesday
morning, in the mid 20s to lower 30s. There will be a quick warm
up Thursday with southwest surface winds. Maximum temperatures in
the southwest corner near Ulysses and Elkhart will rise into the
lower to middle 60s, while the east sections from Ellis to
Comanche Counties will only top out in the lower to middle 50s.
There will be some advance clouds moving in Friday, which will knock
down maximum temperatures Friday into the upper 40s north of I-70,
ranging to near 60F down south along the Oklahoma border. As an
upper wave moves into the plains Friday night, a cold front will
dive southeast from Wyoming. This will bring another round of
snow or rain to Southwest Kansas Friday Night and Saturday. I did
lower some of the 50% Pops from the AllBlend model to 30 and 40
percent, to better match our neighbor`s grids. Friday night will
see a cool down in low temperatures, dropping to the mid 20s to
lower 30s. Saturday should be significantly colder, with the
clouds and precipitation around. Highs should only reach the
middle 40s to near 50F on Saturday.
Sunday looks mostly sunny and considerably warmer, with max temps in
the upper 50s near Larned and the middle 60s in the Syracuse area.
Sunday will be sunny and even warmer with max temps in the middle
60s across the forecast area. Minimum temperatures both Saturday
and Sunday mornings will average in the 25F to 30F degree range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
A trough of low pressure will slide east into extreme western
Kansas today as a cold front moves south into Nebraska. Surface
winds just east of this surface boundary will continue from the
south/southwest at around 10 knots. Based on expected low level
wind speeds and direction overnight, IFR visibilities and/or
ceilings are not anticipated. Will however keep a period of MVFR
visibilities possible between 09z and 14z. VFR conditions are
expected today. High level cloud cover will increase by late day
across all of western Kansas as an upper level disturbance
approaches the area from the west.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 17 49 27 44 / 0 0 10 30
GCK 18 56 28 46 / 0 0 10 30
EHA 27 62 33 52 / 0 0 10 20
LBL 20 57 30 50 / 0 0 10 20
HYS 12 45 25 39 / 0 0 20 40
P28 9 40 25 42 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
946 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS WEEK. LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TO
BEGIN THE WEEK IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH A ZONAL TO SUBTLE LONGWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE
EAST...PLACING OUR REGION IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. BELOW THIS...WILL SEE WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST
TOMORROW. LATE TOMORROW A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
TODAY...MORNING BEGAN QUITE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH
AT A FEW SITES. CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY DISSIPATE. MODEL
OUTPUT FROM GFS AND NAM ESPECIALLY GENERALLY NOT USEFUL FOR NEAR
SURFACE PARAMETERS DUE TO SNOW DEPTH BEING INITIALIZED MUCH TOO
DEEP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. RAP DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM THIS...SO LEANED TOWARDS RAP/ECMWF FOR
TEMPS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHERE THERE IS SNOW AND SOME CLOUD COVER
ACROSS GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES TEMPS HAVE BEEN MUCH
COLDER...BUT ELSEWHERE A PLEASANT AND WARMER DAY AFTER A BITTER
COLD WEEKEND.
TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND 850MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO RISE WILL
MAKE FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH...LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN A FEW SPOTS.
HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN PARTS OF
ADJACENT COLORADO/KANSAS COUNTIES GENERALLY BASED OFF OF THE RAP
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TRENDS. THOUGH BELIEVE SOME OF THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN SREF/NAM ARE DUE TO SNOW FIELD...WITH RAP ALSO
HINTING AT A GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH AT
LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. MUCH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WINDS...AND IF
WINDS REMAIN UP AROUND 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT MIGHT NOT SEE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WHATSOEVER.
WEDNESDAY...SUNNY AND WARM FOR THE MOST PART. HIGHS APPROACHING 60
IN MOST SPOTS AS 850MB TEMPS REACH AROUND 10C...WITH ECMWF AND GEM
GOING EVEN WARMER. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BECOMING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING...QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING. QUICKER END OF GUIDANCE ACTUALLY BRINGS FRONT IN A
LITTLE EARLIER (POSSIBLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON)...THOUGH THIS WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THESE PERIODS. CAA IS
FAIRLY WEAK BEHIND THIS FRONT AND BEST COOLING MODELS ARE SHOWING
IS WITH PRECIP BAND (LIKELY DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES). CURRENT
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
(AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT) MOVING OVER OUR CWA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WED MORNING. MODEL QPF FIELDS GENERALLY MATCH ON TIMING ON AREA OF
PRECIP MOVING OVER OUR CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO I TRENDED POPS
UP DURING THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD...AND QUICKLY ENDED POPS DURING
THE WED MORNING PERIOD.
REGARDING PRECIP TYPE...VERY LITTLE E-SE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO IM NOT SEEING A LOT
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. A FEW SOUNDINGS TRY
TO SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION IN OUR SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER WITH VERY
BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE NW FLOW OVERTAKES REGION OR MAIN AREA OF
PRECIP MOVES IN IM NOT SEEING THIS BEING WORTH A MENTION. WHILE
INITIALLY THERE IS A WARM LAYER...SATURATION ABOVE THIS LAYER WILL
OCCUR WHEN MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVES IN AND TEMPERATURE (AND BY THAT
POINT WEAK CAA/EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES HAVE REMOVED THIS WARM LAYER
FROM THE EQUATION)...SO SLEET IS UNLIKELY. PROFILES GENERALLY SHOW
CLEAN RAIN-SNOW TRANSITION WITH MINIMAL CAA IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SO I WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED FZDZ/FZRA AND LEFT TYPE AS
RAIN/SNOW.
DUE TO RELIANCE ON EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES FOR RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY. CURRENT GUIDANCE AND FORECAST TIMING GENERALLY
SHOWS SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE (FAIRLY WET
AND SLUSHY).
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION
AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT ALLOWING FOR QUICK RETURN OF
MILD TEMPS/DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM UP CONSIDERABLY
THURSDAY WITH MEX/ECE SHOWING HIGHS AROUND 70F. H85 TEMPS
GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MID 60S-LOW 70S (DEPENDING ON WHICH END OF
GUIDANCE YOU CHOOSE) USING STANDARD BIAS. I TRENDED TEMPS UP
ACROSS THE CWA TO UPPER 60S THURSDAY...AND COULD STILL BE A LITTLE
LOW COMPARED TO WARMER END OF GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...NEXT QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS BACK TO OUR CWA. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN
EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON OVERALL TRENDS/CONSENSUS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WHILE THERE IS RUN-RUN MODEL SPREAD DURING THESE
PERIODS...GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGING (OF SOME FLAVOR)
AND DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 929 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
THEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER BOTH TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS. KGLD HAD WIND SPEEDS A
BIT HIGHER THE PREVIOUS FEW HOURS...BUT SPEEDS ARE NOW AT 5 KTS.
WINDS ARE A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE TONIGHT CONSIDERING
NOTHING UPSTREAM SEEMED TO CAUSE THE SPEEDS THAT KGLD HAD THE LAST
FEW HOURS. ALSO...KLBF AND KOGA CURRENTLY HAVE CALM WINDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING. DEPENDING ON WHETHER THIS TRANSFERS TO KMCK...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP KMCK VFR BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MVFR
CONDITIONS SNUCK IN THERE FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. CURRENTLY DO
NOT HAVE THE TIMING DOWN ON WHEN THAT MIGHT HAPPEN AND MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY HELPFUL AT THE PRESENT TIME SO
LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD SEEMED
FAIRLY REASONABLE TO GET A HANDLE ON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH TOMORROW BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AND WILL BECOME
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS...TOWARDS EVENING. AROUND
03Z LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO BOTH TAF SITES...WITH FOG
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 5SM WITH FAIRLY LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS SEEMED
TO ALL AGREE WITH THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM AS WAS EARLIER
CONFIGURED. TEMPERATURES HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME CLIMBING ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. 12Z RUN OF HRRR INDICATED A BACK
EDGE TO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THE ADVISORY AREA THAT SHOULD
CLEAR THE AREA AROUND 21Z. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB A FEW DEGREES AS
PRECIPITATION ENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN PLACE...AND DO
NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HAVE MENTION OF -FZRA IN KMCB AND KBTR FOR NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO PLAIN -RA OR ENDS. 35
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS MORNING.
THE 12Z SOUNDING AT KLIX INDICATED A STRONG INVERSION PRESENT
BETWEEN 950 AND 850 MB. TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING UP TO
ABOUT 940 MB...AND THEN ABOVE FREEZING FROM THIS LEVEL TO 645 MB.
THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WAS NEARLY SATURATED BELOW THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION AND IN THE 600 TO 525 MB LAYER. THERE WAS A SUBSTANTIAL
DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 MB AND 650 MB. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
WAS 0.75 INCH...UP FROM 0.38 INCH YESTERDAY EVENING. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WERE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THOSE LEVELS. 11
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/
UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR AN AREA
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM TYLERTOWN TO BATON ROUGE. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SPREADING PRECIPITATION EASTWARD A
LITTLE FASTER THAN WAS THAN THOUGHT EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS UPDATE
BRINGS OUR FORECAST AND ASSOCIATED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MORE IN
LINE WITH ADJACENT WEATHER OFFICES.
SHORT TERM...
AS THE RAIN FALLS THROUGH THE COLD DRY AIR...EVAPORATION COOLING
OF THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS PRODUCING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SLEET
THIS MORNING. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH
MAINLY ON ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...SWERV AND TWO METS FOR MARDI GRAS SUPPORT IN NEW ORLEANS.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ALONG PEARL RIVER.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 35 33 58 41 / 80 40 10 40
BTR 36 34 57 40 / 90 40 10 30
ASD 40 38 58 45 / 100 60 20 30
MSY 41 38 58 48 / 100 60 20 30
GPT 42 41 60 48 / 100 70 20 30
PQL 42 40 59 47 / 100 80 20 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN
TANGIPAHOA...POINTE COUPEE...ST. HELENA...WASHINGTON...WEST
BATON ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.
GM...NONE.
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AMITE...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1257 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WHAT`S LEFT OF THE DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER NRN QUEBEC SHEARING EASTWARD AND
WITH IT...THE CORE OF THE BITTER COLD AIR. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROF
LINGERS OVER THE ERN CONUS WHILE TO THE W...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
EXTENDS OFF THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE WRN CONUS. SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES 24HRS AGO IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAIN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM
HAS PASSED S OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
STREAK HAS ASSISTED IN SPREADING -SN ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE
NIGHT. WITH CLOUDS/-SN...TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS...A GOOD 30 DEGREES HIGHER IN SOME CASES.
THERE ARE NO SUBZERO READINGS TO BE FOUND THIS MORNING.
PER RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD -SN WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ESE AND
WILL END W TO E DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH A FEW -SHSN/FLURRIES MAY
LINGER INTO THE AFTN CNTRL AND E ALONG LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED WIND
SHIFT. WITH INCREASING SUN ANGLE...WE`RE GETTING INTO THE TIME OF
YEAR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DIURNAL -SHSN DEVELOPMENT. HIGHRES
RAPID REFRESH IS PARTICULARLY NOTABLE WITH AFTN -SHSN IT DEVELOPS
ALONG WIND SHIFT. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS N TO
LOWER 20S S. AS WINDS SHIFT OFF ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS
MAY FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG THE LAKE IN THE AFTN.
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF STRATOCU OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT UNLESS THE N TO NE
WINDS OPEN UP SUFFICIENT WATER/BKN ICE ON THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE
LAKE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE S AND W IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE THRU THE
DAKOTAS/MN. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER NRN ONTARIO...PRES
GRADIENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP DURING THE NIGHT AND
PREVENT TEMPS FROM CRASHING. ON THE OTHER HAND...VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA (PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO
15-25PCT OF NORMAL...LOWEST OVER THE E). WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ADVECTING SHALLOW VERY COLD AIR S AND W OFF ONTARIO AND ACROSS
NEARLY COMPLETELY FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR...FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR MINS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY COLUMN. ALTHOUGH
FCST MINS RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO THE LOWER -TEENS...TEMPS IN
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS COULD FALL TOWARD -20F IF SKIES END UP MAINLY
CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE COMPLETELY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
QUIET LONG TERM CONTINUES. MAIN FEATURES TO NOTE WILL BE LIGHT
SNOWFALL CHANCES LATE THU INTO FRI AND WARMER AIRMASS LATE THIS WEEK
AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO MOVE WELL N OF THE CWA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 06Z FRI AND 18Z FRI. WHILE THE FRONT WILL HELP FORCE SOME
PRECIP...THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE A SECONDARY WAVE THAT
MODELS SHOW CATCHING UP TO WITH AND MOVING WITH THE FRONT AS IS
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT AND MINOR SNOW OVER WRN
UPPER MI THU...BUT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
FRI. AT THIS POINT...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE PRETTY RAPIDLY ON WED FROM A RANGE OF -15C TO
-20C AT 12Z WED TO AROUND -11C BY 00Z THU WITH SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
GIVEN A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TUE NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO AND THAT MODELS INDICATE MIXING TO ONLY
AOB 900MB...HIGH TEMPS ON WED WILL ONLY RANGE FROM 10F-20F...WARMEST
NEAR THE WI BORDER. AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES TO THE CENTRAL CWA
AROUND 00Z FRI WITH 850MB TEMP APPROACHING 0C AS THE RIDGE PASSES.
SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 850MB
WINDS UP TO 45KTS...LEADING TO SFC GUSTS UP TO 25KTS OR HIGHER.
INCREASED HIGHS ON THU TO 20F-30F...BUT COULD SEE HIGHS ABOVE 30
OVER WRN UPPER MI. FRI SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WARMEST OVER SCENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT
ARRIVE AS EARLY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI...850MB
TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN TO THE -10C TO -15C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. MODELS THEN INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LIMITED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
EXPECT ANY LINGERING DIURNAL STRATOCU TO DISSIPATE OVER THE TAF
SITES BY EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER UNDER BUILDING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE. NEARLY COMPLETELY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
VIRTUALLY ELIMINATE STRATOCU FORMATION UNDER DEVELOPING NE FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
EXPECT WINDS TODAY MOSTLY UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN
ONTARIO...EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-25KT. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. WHILE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT WINDS
BEHIND TROF...WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
635 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WHAT`S LEFT OF THE DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER NRN QUEBEC SHEARING EASTWARD AND
WITH IT...THE CORE OF THE BITTER COLD AIR. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROF
LINGERS OVER THE ERN CONUS WHILE TO THE W...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
EXTENDS OFF THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE WRN CONUS. SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES 24HRS AGO IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAIN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM
HAS PASSED S OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
STREAK HAS ASSISTED IN SPREADING -SN ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE
NIGHT. WITH CLOUDS/-SN...TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS...A GOOD 30 DEGREES HIGHER IN SOME CASES.
THERE ARE NO SUBZERO READINGS TO BE FOUND THIS MORNING.
PER RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD -SN WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ESE AND
WILL END W TO E DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH A FEW -SHSN/FLURRIES MAY
LINGER INTO THE AFTN CNTRL AND E ALONG LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED WIND
SHIFT. WITH INCREASING SUN ANGLE...WE`RE GETTING INTO THE TIME OF
YEAR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DIURNAL -SHSN DEVELOPMENT. HIGHRES
RAPID REFRESH IS PARTICULARLY NOTABLE WITH AFTN -SHSN IT DEVELOPS
ALONG WIND SHIFT. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS N TO
LOWER 20S S. AS WINDS SHIFT OFF ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS
MAY FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG THE LAKE IN THE AFTN.
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF STRATOCU OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT UNLESS THE N TO NE
WINDS OPEN UP SUFFICIENT WATER/BKN ICE ON THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE
LAKE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE S AND W IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE THRU THE
DAKOTAS/MN. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER NRN ONTARIO...PRES
GRADIENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP DURING THE NIGHT AND
PREVENT TEMPS FROM CRASHING. ON THE OTHER HAND...VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA (PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO
15-25PCT OF NORMAL...LOWEST OVER THE E). WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ADVECTING SHALLOW VERY COLD AIR S AND W OFF ONTARIO AND ACROSS
NEARLY COMPLETELY FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR...FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR MINS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY COLUMN. ALTHOUGH
FCST MINS RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO THE LOWER -TEENS...TEMPS IN
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS COULD FALL TOWARD -20F IF SKIES END UP MAINLY
CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE COMPLETELY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
QUIET LONG TERM CONTINUES. MAIN FEATURES TO NOTE WILL BE LIGHT
SNOWFALL CHANCES LATE THU INTO FRI AND WARMER AIRMASS LATE THIS WEEK
AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO MOVE WELL N OF THE CWA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 06Z FRI AND 18Z FRI. WHILE THE FRONT WILL HELP FORCE SOME
PRECIP...THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE A SECONDARY WAVE THAT
MODELS SHOW CATCHING UP TO WITH AND MOVING WITH THE FRONT AS IS
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT AND MINOR SNOW OVER WRN
UPPER MI THU...BUT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
FRI. AT THIS POINT...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE PRETTY RAPIDLY ON WED FROM A RANGE OF -15C TO
-20C AT 12Z WED TO AROUND -11C BY 00Z THU WITH SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
GIVEN A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TUE NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO AND THAT MODELS INDICATE MIXING TO ONLY
AOB 900MB...HIGH TEMPS ON WED WILL ONLY RANGE FROM 10F-20F...WARMEST
NEAR THE WI BORDER. AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES TO THE CENTRAL CWA
AROUND 00Z FRI WITH 850MB TEMP APPROACHING 0C AS THE RIDGE PASSES.
SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 850MB
WINDS UP TO 45KTS...LEADING TO SFC GUSTS UP TO 25KTS OR HIGHER.
INCREASED HIGHS ON THU TO 20F-30F...BUT COULD SEE HIGHS ABOVE 30
OVER WRN UPPER MI. FRI SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WARMEST OVER SCENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT
ARRIVE AS EARLY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI...850MB
TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN TO THE -10C TO -15C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. MODELS THEN INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LIMITED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
-SN/MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU
THE REGION WILL END W TO E THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS WILL
MOST LIKELY BE THE RULE AT KIWD/KCMX INTO THE EARLY AFTN. AT
KSAW...DEVELOPING UPSLOPE NORTHERLY WIND MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS
LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
WITH LAKE SUPERIOR NEARLY COMPLETELY ICE COVERED...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATOCU OFF THE LAKE...AND WITH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE HIGH...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE
RULE TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
EXPECT WINDS TODAY MOSTLY UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN
ONTARIO...EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-25KT. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. WHILE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT WINDS
BEHIND TROF...WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
506 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WHAT`S LEFT OF THE DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER NRN QUEBEC SHEARING EASTWARD AND
WITH IT...THE CORE OF THE BITTER COLD AIR. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROF
LINGERS OVER THE ERN CONUS WHILE TO THE W...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
EXTENDS OFF THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE WRN CONUS. SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES 24HRS AGO IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAIN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM
HAS PASSED S OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
STREAK HAS ASSISTED IN SPREADING -SN ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE
NIGHT. WITH CLOUDS/-SN...TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS...A GOOD 30 DEGREES HIGHER IN SOME CASES.
THERE ARE NO SUBZERO READINGS TO BE FOUND THIS MORNING.
PER RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD -SN WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ESE AND
WILL END W TO E DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH A FEW -SHSN/FLURRIES MAY
LINGER INTO THE AFTN CNTRL AND E ALONG LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED WIND
SHIFT. WITH INCREASING SUN ANGLE...WE`RE GETTING INTO THE TIME OF
YEAR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DIURNAL -SHSN DEVELOPMENT. HIGHRES
RAPID REFRESH IS PARTICULARLY NOTABLE WITH AFTN -SHSN IT DEVELOPS
ALONG WIND SHIFT. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS N TO
LOWER 20S S. AS WINDS SHIFT OFF ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS
MAY FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG THE LAKE IN THE AFTN.
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF STRATOCU OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT UNLESS THE N TO NE
WINDS OPEN UP SUFFICIENT WATER/BKN ICE ON THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE
LAKE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE S AND W IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE THRU THE
DAKOTAS/MN. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER NRN ONTARIO...PRES
GRADIENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP DURING THE NIGHT AND
PREVENT TEMPS FROM CRASHING. ON THE OTHER HAND...VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA (PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO
15-25PCT OF NORMAL...LOWEST OVER THE E). WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ADVECTING SHALLOW VERY COLD AIR S AND W OFF ONTARIO AND ACROSS
NEARLY COMPLETELY FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR...FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR MINS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY COLUMN. ALTHOUGH
FCST MINS RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO THE LOWER -TEENS...TEMPS IN
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS COULD FALL TOWARD -20F IF SKIES END UP MAINLY
CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE COMPLETELY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
QUIET LONG TERM CONTINUES. MAIN FEATURES TO NOTE WILL BE LIGHT
SNOWFALL CHANCES LATE THU INTO FRI AND WARMER AIRMASS LATE THIS WEEK
AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO MOVE WELL N OF THE CWA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 06Z FRI AND 18Z FRI. WHILE THE FRONT WILL HELP FORCE SOME
PRECIP...THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE A SECONDARY WAVE THAT
MODELS SHOW CATCHING UP TO WITH AND MOVING WITH THE FRONT AS IS
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT AND MINOR SNOW OVER WRN
UPPER MI THU...BUT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
FRI. AT THIS POINT...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE PRETTY RAPIDLY ON WED FROM A RANGE OF -15C TO
-20C AT 12Z WED TO AROUND -11C BY 00Z THU WITH SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
GIVEN A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TUE NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO AND THAT MODELS INDICATE MIXING TO ONLY
AOB 900MB...HIGH TEMPS ON WED WILL ONLY RANGE FROM 10F-20F...WARMEST
NEAR THE WI BORDER. AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES TO THE CENTRAL CWA
AROUND 00Z FRI WITH 850MB TEMP APPROACHING 0C AS THE RIDGE PASSES.
SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 850MB
WINDS UP TO 45KTS...LEADING TO SFC GUSTS UP TO 25KTS OR HIGHER.
INCREASED HIGHS ON THU TO 20F-30F...BUT COULD SEE HIGHS ABOVE 30
OVER WRN UPPER MI. FRI SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WARMEST OVER SCENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT
ARRIVE AS EARLY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI...850MB
TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN TO THE -10C TO -15C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. MODELS THEN INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LIMITED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING. IFR VSBY WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT CMX BUT ALSO BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE AT KIWD/KCMX. EXPECT THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO VFR AT IWD/CMX IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
EXPECT WINDS TODAY MOSTLY UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN
ONTARIO...EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-25KT. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. WHILE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT WINDS
BEHIND TROF...WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
420 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROF EXTENDING W INTO
WRN CANADA...ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF CANADA INTO THE
NRN CONUS...BUT THE COLD IS MODERATING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLOSER TO -15C TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...REBOUNDING FROM BITTER COLD LOW TEMPS LAST NIGHT.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
OVER THE 280-285K LAYER AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL MN AS NOTED ON
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. THIS SNOW IS FCST TO SPREAD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE PROGGED BY 12Z MODELS TO DIVE SE OVER SRN/CNTRL WI...THE
BEST AND LONGEST SUSTAINED DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WI BORDER COUNTIES AND
ALONG THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE S (LIKELY) WITH LOWER CHC POPS TO THE NW
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG AVBL PER 280K
SFC (ROUGHLY 730MB) AND 6HRS OR SO OF -SN...EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH NORTH TO PERHAPS 1-2INCHES FAR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS
EXPECTED...TEMPS AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BLO 0F
TONIGHT.
EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC BEST FORCING SLIDE SE OF THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OVER THE ERN
COUNTIES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM SCNTRL CANADA WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION (8H TEMPS DOWN TO -18C) ON
TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY FROM
LOWER TO MID TEENS NORTH TO UPPER TEENS SOUTH UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
QUIET LONG TERM CONTINUES. MAIN FEATURES TO NOTE WILL BE LIGHT
SNOWFALL CHANCES LATE THU INTO FRI AND WARMER AIRMASS LATE THIS WEEK
AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO MOVE WELL N OF THE CWA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 06Z FRI AND 18Z FRI. WHILE THE FRONT WILL HELP FORCE SOME
PRECIP...THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE A SECONDARY WAVE THAT
MODELS SHOW CATCHING UP TO WITH AND MOVING WITH THE FRONT AS IS
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT AND MINOR SNOW OVER WRN
UPPER MI THU...BUT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
FRI. AT THIS POINT...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE PRETTY RAPIDLY ON WED FROM A RANGE OF -15C TO
-20C AT 12Z WED TO AROUND -11C BY 00Z THU WITH SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
GIVEN A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TUE NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO AND THAT MODELS INDICATE MIXING TO ONLY
AOB 900MB...HIGH TEMPS ON WED WILL ONLY RANGE FROM 10F-20F...WARMEST
NEAR THE WI BORDER. AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES TO THE CENTRAL CWA
AROUND 00Z FRI WITH 850MB TEMP APPROACHING 0C AS THE RIDGE PASSES.
SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 850MB
WINDS UP TO 45KTS...LEADING TO SFC GUSTS UP TO 25KTS OR HIGHER.
INCREASED HIGHS ON THU TO 20F-30F...BUT COULD SEE HIGHS ABOVE 30
OVER WRN UPPER MI. FRI SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WARMEST OVER SCENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT
ARRIVE AS EARLY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI...850MB
TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN TO THE -10C TO -15C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. MODELS THEN INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LIMITED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING. IFR VSBY WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT CMX BUT ALSO BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE AT KIWD/KCMX. EXPECT THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO VFR AT IWD/CMX IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
A SFC TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TUE...WILL RESULT IN
A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER
20KT TONIGHT THRU TUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU WED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES
FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1230 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROF EXTENDING W INTO
WRN CANADA...ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF CANADA INTO THE
NRN CONUS...BUT THE COLD IS MODERATING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLOSER TO -15C TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...REBOUNDING FROM BITTER COLD LOW TEMPS LAST NIGHT.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
OVER THE 280-285K LAYER AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL MN AS NOTED ON
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. THIS SNOW IS FCST TO SPREAD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE PROGGED BY 12Z MODELS TO DIVE SE OVER SRN/CNTRL WI...THE
BEST AND LONGEST SUSTAINED DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WI BORDER COUNTIES AND
ALONG THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE S (LIKELY) WITH LOWER CHC POPS TO THE NW
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG AVBL PER 280K
SFC (ROUGHLY 730MB) AND 6HRS OR SO OF -SN...EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH NORTH TO PERHAPS 1-2INCHES FAR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS
EXPECTED...TEMPS AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BLO 0F
TONIGHT.
EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC BEST FORCING SLIDE SE OF THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OVER THE ERN
COUNTIES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM SCNTRL CANADA WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION (8H TEMPS DOWN TO -18C) ON
TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY FROM
LOWER TO MID TEENS NORTH TO UPPER TEENS SOUTH UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODIS IMAGERY
OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS INDICATES LAKE SUPERIOR IS NEARLY ICED
OVER...SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL
DON/T EXPECT MUCH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
TUESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK SHORTWAVES...WITH THE
ONE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST AND THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE DAKOTAS. THIS
SECOND WAVE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
TRAJECTORY AS THE TUESDAY MORNING WAVE...BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PULL DRIER AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MICHIGAN AND LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATING IT BEING
SHALLOW...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST AND MAINLY INDICATE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH
INFLUENCE WITH THIS WAVE...ESPECIALLY WITH A MOSTLY FROZEN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN EASTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO VARY ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE
EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING...SHOULD SEE A
QUICK FALL IN TEMPS BEFORE RETURN FLOW TRIES TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
SINCE PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE
EVENING...DID LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BASED OFF THE CONSISTENCY
IN THE MODELS ON HAVING LOWS IN THE -5 TO -10 DEGREE RANGE.
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASUREABLE SNOW IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THERE IS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE THAT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AND ACROSS
THE U.P. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SNOW. WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS...WILL
TREND POPS UP IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND THINK SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY (FROM A HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS) AND
WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH LAKE SUPERIOR PRETTY MUCH
FROZEN OVER. THERE ARE HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY DRY...WOULDN/T
EXPECT MORE THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT)
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA.
AS FOR HIGHS...VALUES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD BUT WARMER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY. 850MB TEMPS
STAY IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO MOST OF THE WEEK AND LIMITS HIGHS FROM
RISING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 20S LATE IN THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. SOME OF THE THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (AROUND 40
PERCENT) DO SHOW TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME FOR
MOST OF THE CWA SINCE FEB 21ST. 12Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS AROUND FREEZING ON MONDAY...SO WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING. IFR VSBY WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT CMX BUT ALSO BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE AT KIWD/KCMX. EXPECT THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO VFR AT IWD/CMX IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
A SFC TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TUE...WILL RESULT IN
A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER
20KT TONIGHT THRU TUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU WED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES
FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
857 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST...CONTINUE TO THINK WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FAIRLY
MINIMAL...SO WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED DOWN LATEST FORECAST LOWS
SEVERAL DEGREES TO COME IN BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH 01Z RAP GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS
FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA...ONLY MAXING
OUT AT AROUND 55KTS NEAR 28000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM
KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED MID
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AS WELL AS
INCREASED MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC ALONG THE MID LEVEL JET AXIS. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY
LACKING. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS
FROM THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL
SUGGEST MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A RESULTANT LACK IN
OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND SUCH CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA WILL
SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA BY 06Z...WITH THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WHEN
COMPARE TO LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S FORECAST
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD THEN
PROMOTE A WARMER DAY ON THURSDAY WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S CURRENTLY FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS LIE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE
START AND END OF THE PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES.
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE CWA SITS UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
GULF COAST AND A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COAST. DURING THE
THURS EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT
THAT WESTERN CONUS DISTURBANCE IS THE FEATURE OF INTEREST...AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...AND TOGETHER WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OVER CENTRAL CANADA...LOOK TO RESULT IN A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES N/NE TOWARD ONTARIO BY 12Z
FRIDAY. THE 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY PRESENT THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CWA...AND OVERALL THERE
HASNT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...NOT BAD AGREEMENT BUT THERE REMAIN DETAILS TO BE WORKED
OUT. ONE OF THE FIRST QUESTIONS THAT ARISES IS WHEN DOES PRECIP
ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA...MOST MODELS ARE TRENDED TOWARD THE
POTENTIAL CREEPING INTO FAR NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA ARND
MIDDAY..WITH THE ECMWF ON THE SLOWER SIDE. DECIDED TO INSERT JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP PRIOR TO 18Z...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT...THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SC NEB...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR KS POST
00Z...THOUGH HOW MUCH WILL LINGER INTO THAT PERIOD REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. DID BUMP UP POPS...MAINLY IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA ALREADY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MODEL TIMING NOT
IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE FRONT IN A SW/NE ORIENTATION
ROUGHLY HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TRUCKING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF
THE CWA NEAR MIDDAY...USHERING IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
REGION. SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS OVER
30 MPH EXPECTED. WITH COLDER AIR ALSO ADVECTING IN FROM THE
NORTH...THINKING THAT HIGHS FOR THE DAY /CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH/ WILL BE MET EARLY ON...PERHAPS
NEAR MIDDAY...WITH STEADY/FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. PRECIPITATION TYPE CERTAINLY ISNT CLEAR CUT AT THIS
POINT...WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED TO START
OFF...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM N TO S...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING IS NOT HIGH. AT THIS POINT THINKING THAT
THE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY SNOW. AS FAR AS
ACCUMULATIONS GO...THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW
/OR LACK OF/ IS OBVIOUSLY GOING TO PLAY A BIG PART...BUT AT THIS
POINT HAVE TOTALS IN THE HALF INCH TO 1 INCH RANGE.
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BETTER FORCING
HAVING SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS STILL
OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...AND
IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO GET THE COLDER AIR OUT...SO HIGHS ON
SATURDAY CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID 30S EAST /CLOSER TO THE SFC
HIGH/ AND MID 40S FURTHER WEST /WHERE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS STARTING
TO WORK IN/.
THEN COMES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...THESE TWO DAYS ARE
THE WARMEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME BROAD
RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BRINGING ALONG A NICE INCREASE
IN TEMPS ALOFT /PERHAPS UP TO 15C AT 850MB/. COMBINED WITH MORE
SUNSHINE...AND THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SW/WRLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING
WITH THE WINDS...HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS IN THE FORECAST.
A READING NEAR 70 NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE
SW...BUT NOT GOING QUITE THAT HIGH YET.
A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS TO SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE
PLAINS. SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH
TIMING/LOCATION...SO DIDNT GO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS BOTH DAYS IS NOT HIGH...IF THE SYSTEM STAYS
CLOSER TO THE LATEST ECMWF RUN...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
LOWERED. PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR
STRATUS HAS FINALLY ERODED NEAR THE TERMINAL...AND CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL STREAM EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 25KFT
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING EAST...EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 26KTS AFT 06/18Z.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
808 AM PST TUE MAR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. THE
NEXT ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...FORCING FROM PASSING JET STREAK WANING RAPIDLY, WITH
RADAR RETURNS DRYING UP AND CLOUDS BREAKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES. UPDATED TO DRASTICALLY REDUCE RAIN/SNOW COVERAGE FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY, AS 12Z NAM/GFS AGREE THAT VERY LITTLE RAIN OR
SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. DRIER MILD PACIFIC AIR
WILL FILTER IN THIS AFTERNOON, UNDER INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING. REDUCED CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON, AND STILL EXPECTING
MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S AREA WIDE. WHATEVER SNOW IS ON THE GROUND IN
THE VALLEYS WON`T BE HERE LONG.
TURNER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 557 AM /
SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL BE HERE
FOR FRIDAY.
UPDATE...SPOTTER REPORTS FROM SPRING CREEK...AS WELL AS WEBCAMS
AT LAMOILLE AND PEQUOP SUMMITS...ARE SHOWING SNOW FALLING IN THESE
LOCATIONS. ROADS ARE SLUSHY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF
INCH OR SO IN SPRING CREEK/LAMOILLE SUMMIT. EMIGRANT AND PEQUOP
SUMMITS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR SO...WITH THE SUMMIT LOCATIONS
RECEIVING 1 TO 3 INCHES. SPRING CREEK AND LAMOILLE SUMMIT SHOULD
SEE ABOUT AN INCH OR SO. ALSO 3KM HRRR IS SHOWING PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEVADA LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED POPS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FOR
OTHER ELEMENTS...GRIDS THIS MORNING WERE REFRESHED TO INCLUDE A LOWER
SNOW LEVEL IN NORTHEAST NEVADA...ALONG WITH UPDATED SNOW AMOUNT
AND RELATED GRIDS. TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 240 AM /
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS STARTING TO
SHIFT EASTWARD PER THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
PRETTY ROBUST WITH READINGS OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES COMMON IN
HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN ELKO COUNTIES. FOR THE MOST PART...SNOW
LEVELS APPEAR TO BE AROUND THE 6500 FOOT RANGE. AS MENTIONED...THE
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLOW MOVING OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA DURING THE MORNING. IT IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE
EXITTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN TO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY...MAKING WAY FOR A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. 700 MB WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO 2 TO
3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. EURO/GFS/DGEX/GEM IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN DIFFERENCES EMERGE ON MONDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AS 700MB TEMPS DROP TO -6 TO -8C ON FRIDAY MORNING ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW...AT THIS POINT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OR HEADLINES AS MOST PRECIP WILL
FALL AHEAD OF COLDER AIR...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
PW`S NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THURSDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED...GUIDANCE AS WELL AS 90 AGL WINDS SHOW 30 TO 40 KNOTS NEAR
COLD FRONT. FRIDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BUT LINGERING
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT INSTABILITY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
700 TEMPS OF -8 ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SATURDAY A STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE NEAR 7000 FEET OR HIGHER.
MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...SO ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND SKY FOR MONDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KWMC...KEKO AND KELY. RAIN SHOULD END BY LATER THIS
MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH A 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS/VIS. ALSO A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OF A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KELY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
557 AM PST TUE MAR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL BE HERE
FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...SPOTTER REPORTS FROM SPRING CREEK...AS WELL AS WEBCAMS
AT LAMOILLE AND PEQUOP SUMMITS...ARE SHOWING SNOW FALLING IN THESE
LOCATIONS. ROADS ARE SLUSHY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF
INCH OR SO IN SPRING CREEK/LAMOILLE SUMMIT. EMIGRANT AND PEQUOP
SUMMITS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR SO...WITH THE SUMMIT LOCATIONS
RECEIVING 1 TO 3 INCHES. SPRING CREEK AND LAMOILLE SUMMIT SHOULD
SEE ABOUT AN INCH OR SO. ALSO 3KM HRRR IS SHOWING PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEVADA LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED POPS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FOR
OTHER ELEMENTS...GRIDS THIS MORNING WERE REFRESHED TO INCLUDE A LOWER
SNOW LEVEL IN NORTHEAST NEVADA...ALONG WITH UPDATED SNOW AMOUNT
AND RELATED GRIDS. TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 240 AM /
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS STARTING TO
SHIFT EASTWARD PER THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
PRETTY ROBUST WITH READINGS OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES COMMON IN
HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN ELKO COUNTIES. FOR THE MOST PART...SNOW
LEVELS APPEAR TO BE AROUND THE 6500 FOOT RANGE. AS MENTIONED...THE
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLOW MOVING OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA DURING THE MORNING. IT IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE
EXITTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN TO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY...MAKING WAY FOR A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. 700 MB WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO 2 TO
3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. EURO/GFS/DGEX/GEM IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN DIFFERENCES EMERGE ON MONDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AS 700MB TEMPS DROP TO -6 TO -8C ON FRIDAY MORNING ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW...AT THIS POINT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OR HEADLINES AS MOST PRECIP WILL
FALL AHEAD OF COLDER AIR...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
PW`S NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THURSDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED...GUIDANCE AS WELL AS 90 AGL WINDS SHOW 30 TO 40 KNOTS NEAR
COLD FRONT. FRIDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BUT LINGERING
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT INSTABILITY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
700 TEMPS OF -8 ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SATURDAY A STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE NEAR 7000 FEET OR HIGHER.
MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...SO ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND SKY FOR MONDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KWMC...KEKO AND KELY. RAIN SHOULD END BY LATER THIS
MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH A 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS/VIS. ALSO A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OF A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KELY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
86/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
312 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THICK CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TODAY WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER IN THE EAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS
IT HAS BEEN. THURSDAY WILL SEE A STRONG WARMING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SLIDES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND. MORE RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING UPPER WAVE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS FAST AND MOISTURE RICH FLOW EJECTS EAST
OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS STARTED TRENDING STRONGER WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON THE QPF SIDE OF THINGS LAST NIGHT AND THAT TREND
CONTINUES. THE LATEST HRRR AND 18Z NAM ARE INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT LOW END PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NM
THIS EVENING. EVEN THE ABQ AND SAF METRO AREA ARE PROGGED TO PICK
UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS. HAVE TRENDED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN FOR THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF CHANCE IN SURROUNDING
LOWER ELEVATIONS. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY AS WELL ABOVE
7500 FEET. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PLUNGING INTO THE NE PLAINS
TONIGHT WILL FOCUS ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIP ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER. WINDS WILL ALSO BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED ADVISORY
CRITERIA IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HIGHLIGHTS DUE TO SHORT DURATION.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER OUT EAST AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
FILTER THROUGH THE AREA. A SUNNIER DAY THAN TODAY IS ON TAP MOST
AREAS HOWEVER STILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND
WINDS MIXING OVER THE AREA. THE EAST WILL PUSH LOW TO MID 70S ONCE
AGAIN.
EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A STORM SYSTEM DIVING SE OUT THE PACIFIC NW INTO NM FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAIN THE BIG
QUESTION WITH THIS EVENT. A DEEP COLD POOL OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
MAY ALLOW FOR GAP WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST ON CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO DELIVER THE BEST PRECIP
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE AS FAR WEST AS THE
DIVIDE IS POSSIBLE. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP WITH THIS SYSTEM SO DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD AT WORK.
DAYTIME INSTABILITY BENEATH THE COLD CORE WILL OFFER THE BEST SHOT
OF PRECIP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME STORMS SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED WIND FORECAST. INCREASED SPEEDS TO
MATCH BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON FRIDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE
COMING IN A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF THE FLOW
ALOFT/MIXING ON THAT DAY. ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT/S
COLD FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
PRETTY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND WOULD COINCIDE WITH A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE ALSO
INCREASED WITH THE PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF AND
NAM ARE ALL BULLISH FOR AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM
THIS QUICK HITTING SYSTEM ACROSS THE JEMEZ/LOWER SAN JUAN MTNS.
SUSPECT THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF THE SANDIAS
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL GET SOME MEASURABLE AS WELL. UNSURE
HOW MUCH WETTING...GREATER THAN TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT CANT RULE IT
OUT.
AS MENTIONED...PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL EFFECTS WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST QUARTER. A
SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTHWARD. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE QUITE STRONG ALONG THIS FRONTAL PUSH BUT THE FURTHER WEST YOU
GET...LESS WIND. WEDNESDAY SPEEDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MUCH WEAKER. VENTILATION RATES
WILL LOWER ACROSS MOST WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS. A STRONGER MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL TRIED TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AND COULD
AFFECT FAR WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL AS A RESULT. SHARPLY ACROSS
SOME AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP AREAWIDE AND EXPECTING ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MODERATE WIND FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. BELOW 15 PCT RH
VALUES SHOW UP ACROSS MANY OF THE LOWLAND AREAS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH LOWER RH WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA
ROSA BUT SHOULD BE LOCALIZED IN NATURE. LOOKING FOR A FEW STRONGER
BREEZES ACROSS THE HIGHER CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL.
THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL TAKE AIM ON THE AREA FRIDAY. WINDS
ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND COMBINE WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
BREEZINESS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO ADOPTED THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NAM SOLUTION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE AN INTERESTING WEATHER
DAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OR HIGHER DEWPOINTS FLOWING IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE BACK DOOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. LOOKING AT MID/UPPER
TEEN RH VALUES ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PLAINS. NOT LOOKING AT ANY CRITICAL CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME EVEN.
MODELS STILL SHOW A STRENGTHENING TROUGH WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR A
WETTING PRECIPITATION EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT AS THE PREVIOUS WEEKEND ONE. THE COLD FRONTAL PUSH
ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HELP CONCENTRATE SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION
THERE. ALSO EXPECT SOME POCKETS ACROSS THE NORTH AND PERHAPS EVEN
SOUTHWEST AREAS. EITHER WAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER. CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHTNING
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. SNOW LEVELS ALSO APPEAR TO BE LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
PASSAGE AND SNOW MELT WOULD HELP MOISTEN THE FUELS A BIT MORE.
A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS TO PUSH OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. SUSPECT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COME IN A LITTLE HIGHER
AS WE GET NEARER TO THAT PERIOD BECAUSE MIXING WILL BE LOWER AND
THUS KEEP SFC DEWPOINTS FROM GETTING TOO LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE ISNT
THE BEST FOR THE RH FORECAST ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
THE PACIFIC LOW CAN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ON THE FORECAST AREA.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO
THIS DISTURBANCE. MODELS HAVE COME IN A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SO HAVE BUILT IN SOME VCSH/S AT
GUP/AEG/ABQ/SAF AND LVS. WAVE WILL INITIALLY AFFECT FMN/GUP FIRST
LATE AFT/EARLY EVE AND THEN TRANSITION OVER CENTRAL SITES
EVENING/EARLY AM AND THEN FINISH ITS SWEEP OF THE AREA BTWN 12Z TO
15Z WED. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE AND WILL BE
TRICKY TO FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL MODIFY TO
INCLUDE TEMPO/PREVAILING OR TAKE OUT PRECIP MENTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE PERIOD. MTN TOP OBSCD IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HRS
DURING THE WAVE PASSAGE.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 26 58 27 63 / 30 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 21 54 21 59 / 40 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 23 54 24 60 / 50 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 17 59 19 65 / 20 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 20 54 22 59 / 20 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 21 59 20 66 / 20 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 27 56 28 62 / 10 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 25 68 26 69 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 19 47 17 50 / 50 5 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 31 53 33 59 / 40 5 0 0
PECOS........................... 28 51 29 57 / 40 5 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 19 50 18 59 / 40 5 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 22 41 24 47 / 50 5 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 22 47 21 53 / 40 5 0 0
TAOS............................ 23 54 22 60 / 30 0 0 0
MORA............................ 28 52 28 58 / 30 5 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 26 60 27 65 / 30 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 29 52 30 59 / 50 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 28 57 29 64 / 40 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 38 59 36 66 / 40 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 35 61 34 67 / 30 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 35 63 33 69 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 35 63 33 70 / 30 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 29 64 28 70 / 20 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 34 63 33 69 / 30 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 42 65 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 32 56 34 63 / 60 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 34 56 35 62 / 40 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 26 56 26 63 / 30 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 29 53 30 61 / 40 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 37 56 33 62 / 20 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 35 60 33 63 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 34 54 32 60 / 10 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 28 45 24 65 / 30 20 0 0
RATON........................... 26 53 23 70 / 30 5 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 28 55 24 70 / 20 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 29 55 26 66 / 20 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 30 46 28 72 / 10 10 0 0
ROY............................. 32 50 26 68 / 10 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 36 52 32 72 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 39 54 32 70 / 10 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 36 52 29 74 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 35 51 30 69 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 36 55 30 71 / 10 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 41 55 33 72 / 10 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 37 61 31 72 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 40 57 32 71 / 5 0 0 0
ELK............................. 38 55 32 65 / 5 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
333 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...IT WILL BE COLD AND BLUSTERY.
SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY...CONTINUING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE COAST. A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE COAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY AND HOLDING ON THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD. THIS
MORNING...EXPECT RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES
MAY MAKE FOR SLICK TRAVEL AS TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL DOWN INTO THE
20S. ALSO...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE HIGHLY INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING WHICH WOULD FREEZE UPON IMPACT WITH MOST ANY UNTREATED
SURFACE. RADAR OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS INDICATES EVEN THE VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS APPARENT EARLIER HAS ENDED AND WITH THAT WE
WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
AN SPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT SOME
RESIDUAL ICING THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 6-7 KFT AND DRY AIR ALSO
BELOW 1-2 KFT. IN BETWEEN...THE COLUMN IS SATURATED...WITH A VERY
PRONOUNCED FRONTAL INVERSION IN PLACE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PROFILE SHOWS THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE COLD
AIR AND NE WINDS...TO A DEPTH OF 2-3 KFT. ATOP THAT...THE FLOW IS
WSW OR W...BUT RATHER WEAK.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEDGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SHOW A MODEST WEAKENING TREND THROUGH
TONIGHT. ONE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EVE...BUT A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AS ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES APPROACHES
TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT...WE MAY SEE A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE S. CONCERN WITH THIS IS
WHETHER SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AS THE LIGHT RAIN
REACHES THE AREA. THE BELOW FREEZING LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND
SO THERE IS NO EXPECTATION FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...EVEN
IF AIR TEMPS ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...SOME SURFACES AT OR NEAR
GROUND LEVEL MAY NOT QUITE BE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. ANY SURFACE
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP A LIGHT GLAZE.
AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR ANY ICING TONIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...NEAR AND N OF A BURGAW TO EYF TO LBT TO
BBP LINE. THESE AREAS WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH DAYBREAK WED AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES REACH THE AREA
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...A TRACE TO A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OR SO. WE
WILL BE WATCHING FORECAST TRENDS CLOSELY AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN OTHERS AND WE DID TREND OUR FORECAST TOWARD
THE COOLER SOLUTIONS WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WE WILL HOLD ONTO THICK CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD
A FLAT DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AND WE WILL DO WELL TO GET ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S. TONIGHT...WET BULB TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREEP HIGHER AND WE DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO CHANGE MUCH
WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO DAYTIME HIGHS...IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FLIRTING WITH 32 DEGREES...
MAINLY ALONG AND N OF A LINE FROM BURGAW AND EYF TO LBT AND BBP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE CAROLINAS WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH WED AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDES UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH A DECENT NORTHEAST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE BEING OVERRUN BY SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS ENHANCED LIFT
WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF RAIN ON WED. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BEST LIFT WILL BE ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR PCP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS COLUMN REMAINS SATURATED THROUGH MUCH
OF WED. BORDERLINE TEMPS WED MORNING WILL WARM AND ENTIRE COLUMN
WARMS THROUGH WED INTO THURS ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE THREAT OF ANY
WINTRY MIXED PCP. AS THE BEST LIFT REMAINS MORE ALIGNED WITH COAST
EXPECT HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO BE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OFF SHORE.
THIS FIRST IMPULSE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY WED NIGHT AND
SHOULD SEE PCP LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WED.
ANOTHER MORE POTENT LOW WILL RIDE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST OR JUST OFF
SHORE THROUGH THURS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR THE AREA IN
ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN
AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD
COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT THURS. OVERALL EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDY WET AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER.
GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED WED AFTN AND THEN AGAIN ON THURS TO PRODUCE
INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS AND PCP WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR HIGHS AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT....MID 30S TO AROUND 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO UPR LEVELS OVER THE
CAROLINAS FRI MORNING WILL PUSH OFF SHORE BY FRI AFTN AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF AREA LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
LINGERING PCP THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A DEEPER DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON
BACK END OF EXITING LOW. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL
BY FRI...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT A LITTLE QUICKER AND
SUNSHINE HELPS TO BRING TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES. BY SATURDAY HIGH
PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL BRING
TEMPS JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THE COOL WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO
THE BEACHES COOLER AS SEA BREEZE KICKS IN EACH AFTERNOON SAT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE BY LATE SATURDAY WITH A W-SW FLOW
SETTING UP. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY SUNDAY EVENING. WILL SEE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LEFT VERY LOW END CHC OF PCP
BACK IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT NOT
COUNTING ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD ON THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR
MONDAY AFTER A COOLER START MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATE MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING WITH N-NNE WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING JUST OVER 20 KTS. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS AN END
OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR NOW...BUT MAJOR MODELS HINT AT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE.
IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS THIS MORNING IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY PRECIPITATION IN TAFS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT VFR
WILL TEMPORARILY DEVELOP AT KLBT AROUND 09Z AND AT KFLO SEVERAL
HOURS LATER AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR WILL DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS...AND SHOULD RE-DEVELOP AT KFLO/KLBT BY MID-LATE
MORNING. MOST MODELS INCREASE PRECIPITATION AFTER SUNRISE ESPECIALLY
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. IFR WILL BE LIKELY NEAR AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE PRECIPITATION/IFR WED...AND THU EVENING THROUGH FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WILL DOWNGRADE THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THIS ISSUANCE. OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A
DECIDED ALBEIT SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE STRONG WIND GUSTS. A
STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THIS PERIOD. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMES A LITTLE LESS TIGHT AND WITH THE INITIAL COLD AND DRY SURGE
NOW PAST...EXPECT THE WIND SPEEDS WILL VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH. THE
STRONGEST WILL BE THROUGH THIS MORNING...UP TO 25 TO 30 KT...THEN UP
TO 20 TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND AROUND 20 KT TONIGHT. THE
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FROM THE NNE. SEAS HAVE PEAKED...UP TO 11 FT
AT FRYING PAN SHOALS EARLIER. EXPECT A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND HERE AS
WELL WITH SEAS LIKELY FALLING BELOW 6 FT WITHIN 20 NM LATER THIS EVE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES BY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WATERS. LOCAL WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW
WHICH WILL BECOME PINCHED WED AND THEN AGAIN ON THURS AS A MORE
POTENT LOW MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AROUND 15
KTS ON WED WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
FURTHER ON THURS. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP INTO SCA THRESHOLDS MAINLY
IN OUTER WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE THROUGH WED NIGHT UP TO 5 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS AND UP TO 6
TO 9 FT AS LOW DEEPENS AND RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURS.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL RUN THROUGH THURS NIGHT IN STIFF NORTHEAST
FLOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FINALLY COME DOWN
BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. MAY SEE SOME SPOTS IN OUTER WATERS REACH UP CLOSE
TO GALE FORCE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
EXITING LOW ON SATURDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ALLOWING SEAS TO
SUBSIDE DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH SAT MORNING AND EVEN FURTHER BY
SAT EVENING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
208 AM EST MON MAR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...IT WILL BE COLD AND BLUSTERY.
SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY...CONTINUING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE COAST. A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE COAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM MONDAY...CONTINUED UPDATES TO THE HOURLY GRIDS HAVE
BEEN APPLIED AND UPLOADED...PARTICULARLY RELATED TO THE
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE ILM CWA.
LATEST PCPN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE ILM CWA HAS
DECREASED AND DIMINISHED DURING THIS LATE EVENING. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...THE FA WILL BE LOOKING AT A CONTINUED
POST FRONTAL STRATIFORM CLOUD DECK. THE ARCTIC/COLD AIR DEPTH TO
REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW ACROSS THE FA DURING ITS SHORT TENURE ACROSS
THE ILM CWA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MINIMAL DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE ANY ORGANIZED PCPN...OTHER THEN THE
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH MINIMAL IF ANY
ACCRUAL OR ACCRETION TO OCCUR. CONTINUED RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE ILM
CWA...AND LATEST TEMPS FROM SFC OBS INDICATING PCPN FALLING AS
PATCHY ZR- OR XL-...WITH ICE PELLETS IE. SLEET...ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE
THE SFC BASED ARCTIC AIR IS DEEPER IN DEPTH. OVERALL...HAVE
CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON PCPN COVERAGE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE THREAT FOR WINTRY PCPN OVER PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA.
FOR THE CLIMATIC DAY...MARCH 3RD 2014...THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY ACROSS THE ILM CWA HAVE BEEN CONTINUALLY RE-SETTING TO A
NEW LOW TEMP FOR THE DAY AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS
THE FA THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A HIGHLY UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS AN ARCTIC FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE WHILE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BANKED ALONG THE EAST
COAST BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE. ALOFT...SW FLOW
AHEAD DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WARM/MOIST FLOW
ABOVE THE SURFACE WEDGE...WHILE SOME ENHANCED CONFLUENCE WILL
ACTUALLY HELP REINFORCE ITS STRENGTH. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK
TUESDAY REVOLVES AROUND WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST...IF NOT
ALL...OF THE CWA...WHILE TEMPS BETWEEN 950MB AND 850MB WARM TO +2C
TO +4C. MOIST LOW LEVELS OF THE COLUMN PERSIST ALL OF TUESDAY...BUT
VERY DRY AIR EXISTS ABOVE 850MB...SUCH THAT PWATS REMAIN RATHER
LOW...AROUND ONE-HALF INCH. SO THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP...EVEN MORE DETERMINING
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING SEVERAL HOURS INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPS ONLY
VERY SLOWLY WARM...LIKELY MUCH SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS
AND REINFORCING WEDGE. STILL...WILL CARRY XL FOR ALL ZONES INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING MAYBE A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTH.
AGAIN...AM CONCERNED ABOUT LACK OF FORCING (ISENTROPIC LIFT IS VERY
WEAK) AND THE DRY AIR ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP QPF AT 0 FOR NOW. THIS IS
A VERY BORDERLINE SITUATION HOWEVER...SINCE SIMPLY A TRACE OF ZR
REQUIRES A WW.Y...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A
FLUID SITUATION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR POTENTIAL
EXPANSION OF CURRENT WW.Y TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE CWA.
A MORE IMPRESSIVE AREA OF PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY OVERHEAD IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. FORECAST PROFILES
SATURATE CONSIDERABLY...AND MOS P12/P24 VALUES SKYROCKET TO THE HIGH
LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS
QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN THE GFS ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL NOT BE AS
AGGRESSIVE AS GFS IS SHOWING FOR QPF...BUT DEFINITELY BETTER RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WED THAN TUESDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY...TEMPS
WILL HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO JUST A COLD
RAIN IS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS LATE
WEDNESDAY...BUT RENEWED HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD
AND ON THURSDAY AS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. INHERITED POP SHOWS INCREASING TO HIGH-CHC FROM
SW TO NE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND FEEL THIS IS WARRANTED
SO WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL INCREASE TO THE WED NIGHT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS THE REINFORCING WEDGE
COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL PREVENT MUCH WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS WILL PEAK ONLY IN THE 30S MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW 40S POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. THIS IS 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE! LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS FOR
MINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME WARMING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...RISING INTO THE MID/UPPR 40S...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID/UPPR 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW SHOULD BE TAKING
SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY...SPREADING PLENTY OF THICK
CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH 12Z GFS WAS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF REGARDING THE DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. I HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80
PERCENT AND STORM-TOTAL QPF TO NEAR 1 INCH PENDING CONFIRMATION
FROM ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF MODEL RUNS.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ROLL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND PERIODS OF LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
RAIN TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE 12Z GFS LOOKED SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF WAS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AS IT BOMBS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE NC COAST. ROUGHLY 20 PERCENT OF
THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOWED A STRONG SURFACE LOW LIKE THE
12Z ECMWF SITTING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY...SO THIS IDEA WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ASSUMING WE GET SOME SUNSHINE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY HIGHS SHOULD REACH 53-57...COOLEST AT
THE COAST. (OF COURSE IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS RIGHT AND WE STAY CLOUDY/
RAINY/WINDY MOST OF THE DAY THESE HIGHS COULD BE 10 DEGREES TOO
OPTIMISTIC)
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.
HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY WILL SEEM WONDERFUL AFTER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS PLUS THE DAYTIME SEABREEZE WORKING
TOGETHER TO KEEP THE BEACHES CONSIDERABLY COOLER COMPARED TO INLAND
LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ALOFT WITH
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE 12Z GFS WAS MUCH
FARTHER EAST THAN EITHER OF TODAY`S ECMWF RUNS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CUTTING OFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GOING WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION MEANS WE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNLESS A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG A SOUTHWARD-MOVING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN
THE EAST COAST SUNDAY EVENING. THIS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE THE
RESULT OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD BRING LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATE MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING WITH N-NNE WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING JUST OVER 20 KTS. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS AN END
OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR NOW...BUT MAJOR MODELS HINT AT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE.
IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS THIS MORNING IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY PRECIPITATION IN TAFS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT VFR
WILL TEMPORARILY DEVELOP AT KLBT AROUND 09Z AND AT KFLO SEVERAL
HOURS LATER AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR WILL DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS...AND SHOULD RE-DEVELOP AT KFLO/KLBT BY MID-LATE
MORNING. MOST MODELS INCREASE PRECIPITATION AFTER SUNRISE ESPECIALLY
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. IFR WILL BE LIKELY NEAR AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE PRECIPITATION/IFR WED...AND THU EVENING THROUGH FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...BORDERLINE POST ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL N-NE GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL RULE THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT...ESPECIALLY JUST OUTSIDE THE
LOCAL WATERS IE. 41013 GUSTING OVER 40 KT THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
THE GALE WARNING CRITERIA HAS BEEN SATISFIED FOR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE TIGHTENING SFC PG AND THE ARCTIC
SURGE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SFC PG LOOSENING SOME
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. N-NNE WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30
KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS...WILL DOMINATE THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 8
FT...WITH THE HIGHER SEAS OF THIS RANGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...AND THE OUTER WATERS OFF FROM THE MOUTH OF
WINYAH BAY. THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT AVERAGE AND
DOMINANT PERIODS OF 6 SECONDS...WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UNDERLYING AND IDENTIFIABLE 9 TO 10
SECOND PERIOD 1 TO 3 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL...WILL CO-EXIST WITH
THIS BUILDING WIND WAVE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WITH A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
ALONG THE COAST BEHIND IT. THIS WEDGE WILL CONTROL THE LOCAL WIND
TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A NE DIRECTION PERSISTENT
THROUGH MID-WEEK. SPEEDS WILL CHANGE WITH THE FLUCTUATING
GRADIENT...EASING FROM 15-25 KTS EARLY TUESDAY TO 10-15 KTS LATE
TUESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 15-20 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A 6-7 NE WIND WAVE...WITH
AMPLITUDES FALLING FROM 4-7 FT EARLY...TO 3-5 FT MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...AND RISING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 3-6 FT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THURSDAY. VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG A LINE FROM
FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY MORNING CONSOLIDATING INTO A
SINGLE LOW ABOUT 100 MILES OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY
EVENING. THE LOW SHOULD STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT FOLLOWS THE GULF
STREAM NORTHEASTWARD. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST/NORTH WINDS AND SEAS.
MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE LOW FRIDAY: THE 12Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF TAKE THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH DIMINISHING IMPACTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT
HOWEVER...SLOWING THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ON
FRIDAY AS IT BOMBS THE STORM DOWN TO BELOW 1000 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE
WHILE OVER THE WARM WATER SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THIS SCENARIO
COULD BRING NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS BY SATURDAY THE
LOW SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND QUICKLY DIMINISHING
SEAS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
105-106.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...MRR/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
825 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
ISSUED QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ND AND DELAY TIMING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...BASED
ON RADAR/OBS TRENDS UPSTREAM AS WELL AS SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
(HRRR/RUC/00Z NAM).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. WILL NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS ND BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING
NORTHWEST. 18Z MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE 18Z NAM AND LATEST RUC ARE FARTHER
NORTH WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PRECIP COMPARED TO
GFS/12Z ECMWF. SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS OBSERVED UPSTREAM ACROSS
MONTANA...BUT STILL NOT SEEING MUCH REACH THE GROUND. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO
LOWER POPS OR REMOVE THEM ACROSS CENTRAL ND FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES.
LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND INTO MINNESOTA BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRACKING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
EAST COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PRODUCING WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION AND THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE AREA.
UTILIZED THE GFS FOR THE MAX TEMPERATURE ALOFT. THE GFS HAS BEEN
THE MOST CONSISTENT KEEPING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE ECMWF WAS SIMILAR TO THIS ON THE 04
MARCH 12 UTC RUN...BUT IS NOW QUITE A BIT WARMER AND CLOSER TO THE
NAM. THE MAIN REASON FOR GOING WITH THE GFS IS THAT EVEN THE WARM
NAM DOES NOT HAVE A REAL DEEP LAYER OF +3C TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS
IF THERE WERE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...THE THINKING NOW IS THAT
IT WOULD BE BRIEF...AND THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE SNOW.
NOW AS YOU GO FARTHER SOUTH...SAY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...THE THREAT
OF FREEZING RAIN INCREASES WITH A DEEPER WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE
SOUTH. WE WILL ALSO HAVE THE UNCERTAINTY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF HERE...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT OF SNOW ALSO INCREASES AS YOU GO NORTH. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
2...IN THE WESTERN THIRD...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO DROP OFF.
CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THUS WE
SHOULD HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVENING OR MID SHIFT WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON IF A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NEEDED...AND WHERE IT WOULD GO.
ON THURSDAY...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
AS COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH WILL BE SLOW TO DROP COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE STATE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THE LONG TERM BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
NORTHEAST ON THE TAIL END OF A MID LEVEL S/WV.
OTHERWISE...LINGERING LIGHT SNOW A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH MODELS PORTRAYING LOW STRATUS IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS ON
FRIDAY...WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 20F
DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY. MODELS STILL DEPICT LIGHT QPF ACROSS
MONTANA AND AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PICKING UP ON
WEAK EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ENERGY AND RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE SFC
HIGH.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MATERIALIZES FOR THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY
ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO HIT 40 DEGREES IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION AND THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
RIDGE FLATTENS MONDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH THIS FEATURE ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH THIS TRANSITION...ALONG WITH
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING HIGH IMPACT AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING A SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETTING UP...KEEPING THE BEST STORM
TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT ALL SITES AS OF 01Z UTC. NEXT
SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM MONTANA AND EXPECT TO SEE LOWERING CIGS
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH INCLUDING KISN AND KMOT BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE MAY BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. WILL NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS ND BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING
NORTHWEST. 18Z MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE 18Z NAM AND LATEST RUC ARE FARTHER
NORTH WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PRECIP COMPARED TO
GFS/12Z ECMWF. SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS OBSERVED UPSTREAM ACROSS
MONTANA...BUT STILL NOT SEEING MUCH REACH THE GROUND. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO
LOWER POPS OR REMOVE THEM ACROSS CENTRAL ND FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES.
LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND INTO MINNESOTA BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRACKING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
EAST COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PRODUCING WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION AND THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE AREA.
UTILIZED THE GFS FOR THE MAX TEMPERATURE ALOFT. THE GFS HAS BEEN
THE MOST CONSISTENT KEEPING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE ECMWF WAS SIMILAR TO THIS ON THE 04
MARCH 12 UTC RUN...BUT IS NOW QUITE A BIT WARMER AND CLOSER TO THE
NAM. THE MAIN REASON FOR GOING WITH THE GFS IS THAT EVEN THE WARM
NAM DOES NOT HAVE A REAL DEEP LAYER OF +3C TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS
IF THERE WERE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...THE THINKING NOW IS THAT
IT WOULD BE BRIEF...AND THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE SNOW.
NOW AS YOU GO FARTHER SOUTH...SAY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...THE THREAT
OF FREEZING RAIN INCREASES WITH A DEEPER WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE
SOUTH. WE WILL ALSO HAVE THE UNCERTAINTY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF HERE...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT OF SNOW ALSO INCREASES AS YOU GO NORTH. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
2...IN THE WESTERN THIRD...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO DROP OFF.
CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THUS WE
SHOULD HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVENING OR MID SHIFT WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON IF A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NEEDED...AND WHERE IT WOULD GO.
ON THURSDAY...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
AS COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH WILL BE SLOW TO DROP COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE STATE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THE LONG TERM BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
NORTHEAST ON THE TAIL END OF A MID LEVEL S/WV.
OTHERWISE...LINGERING LIGHT SNOW A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH MODELS PORTRAYING LOW STRATUS IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS ON
FRIDAY...WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 20F
DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY. MODELS STILL DEPICT LIGHT QPF ACROSS
MONTANA AND AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PICKING UP ON
WEAK EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ENERGY AND RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE SFC
HIGH.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MATERIALIZES FOR THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY
ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO HIT 40 DEGREES IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION AND THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
RIDGE FLATTENS MONDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH THIS FEATURE ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH THIS TRANSITION...ALONG WITH
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING HIGH IMPACT AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING A SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETTING UP...KEEPING THE BEST STORM
TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT ALL SITES AS OF 01Z UTC. NEXT
SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM MONTANA AND EXPECT TO SEE LOWERING CIGS
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH INCLUDING KISN AND KMOT BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE MAY BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1005 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
BASED ON RADAR UPSTREAM SNOW AREA HUGGING ALONG HIGHWAY TWO ATTM
AS THE SOUTHERN ACTIVITY HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN.
SHORT RANGE RAP AND INCOMING NAM12 BRING THE BACKEDGE OF LIGHT
SNOW CURRENTLY NEAR RUGBY-CARRINGTON TO THE RED RIVER IN EAST
CENTRAL ND BY 08Z AND THEN PUSH IT EAST OF OUR MN FCST AREA BY
11Z. THIS IS LATER THAN EARLIER FCST AND THUS UPPED POPS AND
DELAYED SNOW ENDING. THIS SECOND BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS FINE SNOW
AND NOT ACCUMULATING MUCH -- GENERALLY UNDER A HALF INCH. MOST
SNOWFALL TODAY WAS IN THE FARGO AREA WITH 1.5 INCHES.
CLEARING NOTED VERY NEAR MANITOBA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AND THIS MAY
DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT MOST MODELS SLIDE IT MORE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. WHERE IT CLEARS IT WILL DROP BLO ZERO QUICKLY BUT IN
CLOUDS TEMPS WILL HOLD UP. SO LOW TEMP FCST A BIT TRICKY BUT KEPT
PREV FCST AREA OF SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORTH TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
SOUTH.
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
SNOW CHANCES WITH THE VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
MODELS THAT WERE HINTING AT THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION HAVE VERIFIED AS
A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH HAS FALLEN AT FARGO AND SNOW IS STILL
ONGOING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BAND
WEAKENING FROM FARGO TO PKD AND THEN REDEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH
LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRACK RECORD WITH PLACEMENT OF
THE SNOW BAND WITH THIS SYSTEM AM NOT SURE ANY MODEL SOLUTION IS
TO BE TRUSTED. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS THIS
EVENING...MAINLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND THEN
TAPERING OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE HEADS OFF INTO MN LATER TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
TOMORROW. MODELS ALL BRING IN SOME PRECIP INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH IT STILL SEEMS THAT THE MAIN BAND WILL BE
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. THINK THAT EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA
WILL HELP KEEP MUCH OF THE SNOW TO THE FRINGES OF THE CWA AND WILL
KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE. HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO FOR TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MN...WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF ALTHOUGH LEFT SOME LOW
POPS IN OUR SOUTH AND WEST FOR ANYTHING LINGERING. CLOUDS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT SHOT OF
MILDER AIR AS WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF A SFC
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND HIGHS SHOULD GET MORE INTO THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S. THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGS COLD AIR DOWN AGAIN
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. THE GFS IS FASTEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
BRINGS THE NEXT COLD AIR SURGE FAIRLY EARLY ON THURSDAY WHILE THE
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP 850MB TEMPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA
FOR A LONGER PERIOD. MAY BE WISH-CASTING...BUT THE GFS IS OFTEN TOO
PROGRESSIVE SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BIT MORE WARMTH ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S. MAY HAVE A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE THURSDAY BUT CAN ADJUST AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER.
FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...500MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES THU NIGHT/FRI BUT THERE IS ONE MORE LITTLE BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST SAT/EARLY SUN WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SFC.
TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL FRI/SAT BUT REALLY BEGIN TO BUMP UP SUN
POSSIBLY INTO MON. ECMWF/GFS SHOW +4C TO +8C AT 850MB ON SUNDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR WEST WINDS. THEREFORE CURRENTLY GOING AROUND 32F FOR
SUN HIGHS AND GUIDANCE NOW GIVING ABOUT THE SAME OR WARMER FOR MON.
850MB TEMPS LOOK ABOUT 4 TO 8 C COOLER ON MONDAY SO WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF LATER RUNS COOL MONDAY HIGHS. COULD ALSO BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AROUND ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CIGS THRU THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR VSBYS IN
LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES THIS EVENING. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TURNING
LIGHT NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1054 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
TO OVERCOME AND THUS WILL KEEP OUT ANY POPS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME FLURRIES THAT MAKE IT THROUGH THE DRY AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
OTHER QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER WE SEE ANY LOW STRATUS FORM.
NAM..GFS...HRRR AND RAP ALL SHOW A PRETTY STRONG SIGNAL...AS LOW
LEVEL MOIST AIR IS ADVECTED NORTH INTO OUR COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER
NOTHING OUT THERE RIGHT NOW...AND THE GEM AND ECMWF SEEM A LITTLE
LESS AGGRESSIVE ON THE STRATUS. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. INITIALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY AS
THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HELP KEEP THINGS MIXED.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EXIT LATER
TONIGHT. IF STRATUS IS NOT AROUND OR EXITS...COULD SEE SOME SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES BY MORNING. HOWEVER IF STRATUS STICKS AROUND READINGS
WOULD BE STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO. FOR NOW
WILL GO THE MIDDLE GROUND...SINCE CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON WHICH
SOLUTION WILL VERIFY.
TOMORROW WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH THE SLOW WARMING TREND
CONTINUING...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND AN EASTERLY WIND
AROUND 10 MPH. ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRETTY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL BEING A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE AN AREA OF SNOW AFTER WE
SATURATE THE INITIALLY DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS. CURRENT THOUGHT IS
THAT WE WILL SEE AN AREA OF SNOW FORM ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE
WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BEST CHANCE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO
SPENCER IOWA LINE...CLOSER TO THE BETTER PV ADVECTION AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTERACTION. 12Z NAM SEEMED TOO SLOW AND THUS WAS NOT
USED...WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS...GEM AND ECMWF SEEMING LIKE THE WAY
TO GO. GIVEN THE PERIOD OF PRETTY GOOD OMEGA...THE HIGHER QPF OF THE
HI RES MODELS AND GEM DOES SEEM POSSIBLE. SO DID TREND QPF UP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE 18Z NAM HAS ACTUALLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE
OTHER MODELS...AND NOW MATCHES THE FORECAST PRETTY WELL. THINKING WE
SEE AN AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES SOMEWHERE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
CURRENT BEST GUESS BEING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
COUNTIES...WITH GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ELSEWHERE. MODELS TODAY HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST WITH QPF INTO THE AREA OF BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL FALL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...ALLOWING THE LIGHT
SNOWFALL LINGERING ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF TO COME TO AN END BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...KEEPING PREVENTING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING MUCH FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. LIGHT WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PUT A CAP ON THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH THE 20S WITH SOME LOW 30S IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FURTHER BOLSTERING
READINGS DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT STRATUS ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN TIMING THAN THE GEM AND
GFS...BUT ALL MODELS DO TRACK THE BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEEING ANY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF...BUT EVEN HERE MID
LEVELS REMAIN PRETTY DRY. WILL LEAVE ONLY MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX WITH FAIRLY MILD MID/LOW LEVELS AND SUB FREEZING AT THE SURFACE.
THE WARMING TREND RESUMES SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING
BUILDING BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOLLOWED BY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW
TO MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...THOUGH APPEARS AS THOUGH ATMOSPHERE WILL SATURATE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO FALL AT BOTH KHON AND KFSD AROUND 18Z...AND
POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS KSUX. HEAVIEST SNOW AT THIS POINT
APPEARS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH AND EAST OF KFSD AND KHON...WHERE
VISIBILITY MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. WEAK LIFT
LINGERS INTO TUESDAY EVENING...SO HARD TO SAY AT THIS POINT ON
WHEN THE SNOW WILL STOP.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
536 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR. MAY STILL SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOP AT CDS...BUT THE BETTER
THREAT FOR THIS NOW LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO EARLY THU MORNING.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL TAPER SHORTLY BEFORE TRENDING
SOUTHWEST LATER THU MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014/
SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS
BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERS
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BUT SHOULD DRAW TO A CLOSE BEFORE SUNSET.
THERE STILL ARE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW BUT EXPECT THESE TO CLEAR OFF BY LATER TONIGHT. BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS...FOG...OR A HEAVY FROST AS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. MODELS ARE
KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN STEP WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND AREAS THAT
DID RECEIVE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A BIT OF EXTRA MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND ALONG WITH THE EXTRA MOISTURE
USUALLY FAVORS LOW CLOUDS OR FOG BUT THIS MAY ALSO BRING ABOUT A
PRETTY HEAVY FROST FOR SOME AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER.
HARD TO TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN AS THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH BOUNCE AROUND
THE LOCATION OF WHERE REDUCED VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP. WENT AHEAD
AND LEFT MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED
TO BE EVALUATED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER BUT STILL ONLY A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. WIND WILL TAKE A WHILE
TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT SHOULD DO SO EARLIER ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THAN THE ROLLING PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR 70 WHILE THE ROLLING
PLAINS REMAINS A BIT COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. STREAM OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ON WV/HIGH CLOUDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOULD
ARRIVE TOMORROW MORNING...ALSO HELPING TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING UP TOO MUCH DURING THE DAY.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
FLATTENED UA RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD IN COMBINATION WITH THE RETURN
OF SFC LEE TROUGHING AND SFC SRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORM
TEMPS TO ROUND OUT THE END OF THE WEEK /70S/. ABL MIXING TO AOA 600
MB SUGGESTS AFTN W-SW WIND SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH...WHICH IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG GIVEN WIND SPEEDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY TAMED. DUE TO THE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO A BREEZY COLD
FRONT EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...DRIVEN BY
A 1030 MB SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES OF
7-10 MB PER 3 HRS SUGGEST NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH /TEMPS TO
COOL INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW 50S ON SATURDAY/. CONCURRENTLY...AN
OPEN WAVE UA DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ITS EXACT TRACK. THE
DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN TO EITHER MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD /PER THE NAM/
OR BREAK INTO TWO PIECES WHERE ONE PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND
THE OTHER PIECE TRANSLATES ACROSS NERN OLD MEXICO /PER THE GFS AND
ECMWF/. THUS...THIS SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY IS TOO FAR SW TO AFFECT
THE REGION. IF FOLLOWING THE FORMER MODEL...A RATHER LIGHT WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NRN AND NWRN
ZONES WITH -RA ELSEWHERE ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE NAME WHILST THE GFS IS ALMOST VOID OF PRECIP...LIKELY DUE TO ITS
WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE DISTURBANCE. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS APPEARS VALID ATTM...WITH BETTER CHANCES NORTH...SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FA.
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SRLY SFC REGIME WILL MAKE A
RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THUS PROMOTING A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND /HIGHS IN THE 70S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK/. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
PROGGED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS MID-WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE REGION MID-LATE WEEK...THOUGH ITS TRACK IS UP FOR
DEBATE /REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA PER THE ECMWF OR PASSING OVERHEAD
PER THE GFS/. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE BEYOND SATURDAY ATTM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 28 71 38 72 28 / 0 0 0 0 20
TULIA 26 67 37 73 30 / 0 0 0 0 20
PLAINVIEW 25 67 38 74 31 / 0 0 0 0 20
LEVELLAND 28 69 39 75 32 / 0 0 0 0 20
LUBBOCK 28 67 40 75 33 / 0 0 0 0 20
DENVER CITY 32 67 42 76 35 / 0 0 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 30 67 40 75 34 / 0 0 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 28 64 38 74 34 / 0 0 0 0 10
SPUR 25 65 39 74 36 / 0 0 0 0 10
ASPERMONT 26 65 41 74 37 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
639 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TEMPERATURE AND WEATHER. FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
A BIT FURTHER INLAND WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING 33. TWEAKED THE
TEMPERATURES A TAD WARMER THROUGH 2 PM TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
STILL HAVE AN AREA OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COASTAL BEND MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. BECAUSE
OF THIS...TWEAKED THE RAIN CHANCES DOWNWARD A BIT OVER THE
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER W TX
THIS MORNING WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS OVER SE TX INDICATING AT LEAST
SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE AREA. MODERATE RA/FZRA/PL SEEM TO
BE MAIN PRECIP TYPES FALLING FROM N TO S ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF
THE HOUSTON TERMINALS ARE HOVERING AROUND FREEZING SO HARD TO KNOW
HOW MUCH ICE ACCUMULATION THERE WILL BE AT TERMINALS. KHOU HAS
BEEN REPORTING RA WHILE KSGR/KIAH HAVE GONE BETWEEN SLEET/FZRA.
MEANWHILE KLBX HAS BEEN REPORTING SLEET RIGHT AT FREEZING. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP FZRA/PL IN KSGR/KIAH TAFS BUT -RA/RA FOR KHOU. BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...COULD HAVE PRECIP ENDING BY 15-17Z WHICH IS AN HOUR
OR TWO FASTER THAN HRRR FORECAST TRENDS. OVERALL THINK HRRR HAS
BEST DEPICTION OF PRECIP TRENDS SO TAFS LARGELY LEANED ON THAT
GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME MORE PRECIP AROUND 00Z WED
TIMEFRAME. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AS WELL BUT VERY LIGHT PRECIP IF
ANY. IN THE EXTENDED...DID NOT SEE ANYTHING WRONG WITH GFS LAMP AS
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN PROBLEM OF THE MORNING WILL BE THE IMPACT AND EXTENT OF THE
WINTER WEATHER. FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE THE WINTER STORM WARNING
AND ADVISORY PRODUCTS.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS GENERATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WERE MOVING THROUGH SE TX AT 4 AM. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WAS FALLING OVER MOST OF THE INLAND COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MADISONVILLE TO TRINITY. FREEZING RAIN WAS ALSO BEING
REPORTED INTO SOME OF INLAND AREAS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES WEST OF
GALVESTON COUNTY. OVER HARRIS AND GALVESTON COUNTIES...THE
FREEZING LINE WAS A BIT FURTHER INLAND.
SOME ADDITIONAL WET BULBING COULD OCCUR IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE WAS ABOVE FREEZING AT 4 AM. THE NAM12 AND MAV GUIDANCE
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES. DECIDED
TO KEEP THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND HOUSTON...TRINITY...AND MADISON
COUNTIES IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL
SEE LESSER AMOUNTS WHILE THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE MORE OF A
MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WARNING UP FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES AS MOST WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT ICING FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTY.
HOWEVER...HARRIS COUNTY WILL SEE A VARIETY...FROM ALMOST ALL RAIN
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST AND A WINTRY MIX OR ALL FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING DATA SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DO NOT THINK THE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GET OUT OF
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH A SURFACE
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GULF TOWARD FL.
A ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS SE TX
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY PERIOD. THE NEXT ONE WILL PASS
TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FOR NOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RAINFALL POTENTIAL. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE AND BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
40
MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS IN OFFSHORE AREAS APPEAR TO BE ROUGHLY AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE BAYS AND NEAR SHORE. WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING SO WILL RUN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR OFFSHORE AREAS THROUGH NOON AND CAUTION FOR BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL LIKELY HAVE CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A COASTAL LOW FORMING OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
39
AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF MUCH COLDER CLOUD TOPS MOVING
OVER THE AREA INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION. ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES BEING DETECTED SO FOR 09Z UPDATE ADDED TEMPO GROUP FOR
KIAH/KHOU/KSGR FOR POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM AND SLEET. STILL
THINK DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FZRA WITH TEMPS NEAR/BELOW
FREEZING. LIKE TRENDS OF HRRR RUNS WHICH HAVE PRECIP SLOWING DOWN
AROUND 15-18Z AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. CONCERNED THAT 06Z NAM
SHOWING AN AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIP BY 00Z WED MAINLY FOR
KSGR/KHOU. QUESTIONABLE IF TEMPS WILL BE BACK BELOW FREEZING AT
THIS TIME OR IF WET BULB THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT FZRA/SLEET.
ALSO NOT SURE IF CIGS WILL BREAK OUT OF IFR/MVFR AND BECOME VFR.
STILL TIME TO EVALUATE FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 38 33 57 36 61 / 60 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 37 33 56 39 63 / 60 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 41 41 56 46 60 / 80 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...MADISON...MATAGORDA...TRINITY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...
FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...LIBERTY...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
SAN JACINTO...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
540 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER W TX
THIS MORNING WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS OVER SE TX INDICATING AT LEAST
SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE AREA. MODERATE RA/FZRA/PL SEEM TO
BE MAIN PRECIP TYPES FALLING FROM N TO S ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF
THE HOUSTON TERMINALS ARE HOVERING AROUND FREEZING SO HARD TO KNOW
HOW MUCH ICE ACCUMULATION THERE WILL BE AT TERMINALS. KHOU HAS
BEEN REPORTING RA WHILE KSGR/KIAH HAVE GONE BETWEEN SLEET/FZRA.
MEANWHILE KLBX HAS BEEN REPORTING SLEET RIGHT AT FREEZING. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP FZRA/PL IN KSGR/KIAH TAFS BUT -RA/RA FOR KHOU. BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...COULD HAVE PRECIP ENDING BY 15-17Z WHICH IS AN HOUR
OR TWO FASTER THAN HRRR FORECAST TRENDS. OVERALL THINK HRRR HAS
BEST DEPICTION OF PRECIP TRENDS SO TAFS LARGELY LEANED ON THAT
GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME MORE PRECIP AROUND 00Z WED
TIMEFRAME. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AS WELL BUT VERY LIGHT PRECIP IF
ANY. IN THE EXTENDED...DID NOT SEE ANYTHING WRONG WITH GFS LAMP AS
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN PROBLEM OF THE MORNING WILL BE THE IMPACT AND EXTENT OF THE
WINTER WEATHER. FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE THE WINTER STORM WARNING
AND ADVISORY PRODUCTS.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS GENERATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WERE MOVING THROUGH SE TX AT 4 AM. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WAS FALLING OVER MOST OF THE INLAND COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MADISONVILLE TO TRINITY. FREEZING RAIN WAS ALSO BEING
REPORTED INTO SOME OF INLAND AREAS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES WEST OF
GALVESTON COUNTY. OVER HARRIS AND GALVESTON COUNTIES...THE
FREEZING LINE WAS A BIT FURTHER INLAND.
SOME ADDITIONAL WET BULBING COULD OCCUR IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE WAS ABOVE FREEZING AT 4 AM. THE NAM12 AND MAV GUIDANCE
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES. DECIDED
TO KEEP THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND HOUSTON...TRINITY...AND MADISON
COUNTIES IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL
SEE LESSER AMOUNTS WHILE THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE MORE OF A
MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WARNING UP FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES AS MOST WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT ICING FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTY.
HOWEVER...HARRIS COUNTY WILL SEE A VARIETY...FROM ALMOST ALL RAIN
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST AND A WINTRY MIX OR ALL FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING DATA SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DO NOT THINK THE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GET OUT OF
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH A SURFACE
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GULF TOWARD FL.
A ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS SE TX
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY PERIOD. THE NEXT ONE WILL PASS
TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FOR NOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RAINFALL POTENTIAL. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE AND BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
40
MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS IN OFFSHORE AREAS APPEAR TO BE ROUGHLY AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE BAYS AND NEAR SHORE. WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING SO WILL RUN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR OFFSHORE AREAS THROUGH NOON AND CAUTION FOR BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL LIKELY HAVE CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A COASTAL LOW FORMING OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
39
AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF MUCH COLDER CLOUD TOPS MOVING
OVER THE AREA INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION. ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES BEING DETECTED SO FOR 09Z UPDATE ADDED TEMPO GROUP FOR
KIAH/KHOU/KSGR FOR POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM AND SLEET. STILL
THINK DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FZRA WITH TEMPS NEAR/BELOW
FREEZING. LIKE TRENDS OF HRRR RUNS WHICH HAVE PRECIP SLOWING DOWN
AROUND 15-18Z AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. CONCERNED THAT 06Z NAM
SHOWING AN AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIP BY 00Z WED MAINLY FOR
KSGR/KHOU. QUESTIONABLE IF TEMPS WILL BE BACK BELOW FREEZING AT
THIS TIME OR IF WET BULB THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT FZRA/SLEET.
ALSO NOT SURE IF CIGS WILL BREAK OUT OF IFR/MVFR AND BECOME VFR.
STILL TIME TO EVALUATE FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 38 33 57 36 61 / 60 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 37 33 56 39 63 / 80 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 41 41 56 46 60 / 80 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...MADISON...MATAGORDA...TRINITY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...
FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...LIBERTY...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
SAN JACINTO...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
436 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN PROBLEM OF THE MORNING WILL BE THE IMPACT AND EXTENT OF THE
WINTER WEATHER. FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE THE WINTER STORM WARNING
AND ADVISORY PRODUCTS.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS GENERATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WERE MOVING THROUGH SE TX AT 4 AM. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WAS FALLING OVER MOST OF THE INLAND COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MADISONVILLE TO TRINITY. FREEZING RAIN WAS ALSO BEING
REPORTED INTO SOME OF INLAND AREAS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES WEST OF
GALVESTON COUNTY. OVER HARRIS AND GALVESTON COUNTIES...THE
FREEZING LINE WAS A BIT FURTHER INLAND.
SOME ADDITIONAL WET BULBING COULD OCCUR IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE WAS ABOVE FREEZING AT 4 AM. THE NAM12 AND MAV GUIDANCE
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES. DECIDED
TO KEEP THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND HOUSTON...TRINITY...AND MADISON
COUNTIES IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL
SEE LESSER AMOUNTS WHILE THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE MORE OF A
MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WARNING UP FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES AS MOST WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT ICING FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTY.
HOWEVER...HARRIS COUNTY WILL SEE A VARIETY...FROM ALMOST ALL RAIN
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST AND A WINTRY MIX OR ALL FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING DATA SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DO NOT THINK THE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GET OUT OF
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH A SURFACE
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GULF TOWARD FL.
A ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS SE TX
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY PERIOD. THE NEXT ONE WILL PASS
TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FOR NOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RAINFALL POTENTIAL. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE AND BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
40
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS IN OFFSHORE AREAS APPEAR TO BE ROUGHLY AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE BAYS AND NEAR SHORE. WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING SO WILL RUN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR OFFSHORE AREAS THROUGH NOON AND CAUTION FOR BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL LIKELY HAVE CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A COASTAL LOW FORMING OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
39
&&
.AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF MUCH COLDER CLOUD TOPS MOVING
OVER THE AREA INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION. ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES BEING DETECTED SO FOR 09Z UPDATE ADDED TEMPO GROUP FOR
KIAH/KHOU/KSGR FOR POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM AND SLEET. STILL
THINK DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FZRA WITH TEMPS NEAR/BELOW
FREEZING. LIKE TRENDS OF HRRR RUNS WHICH HAVE PRECIP SLOWING DOWN
AROUND 15-18Z AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. CONCERNED THAT 06Z NAM
SHOWING AN AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIP BY 00Z WED MAINLY FOR
KSGR/KHOU. QUESTIONABLE IF TEMPS WILL BE BACK BELOW FREEZING AT
THIS TIME OR IF WET BULB THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT FZRA/SLEET.
ALSO NOT SURE IF CIGS WILL BREAK OUT OF IFR/MVFR AND BECOME VFR.
STILL TIME TO EVALUATE FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 38 33 57 36 61 / 60 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 37 33 56 39 63 / 80 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 41 41 56 46 60 / 80 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...MADISON...MATAGORDA...TRINITY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...
FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...LIBERTY...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
SAN JACINTO...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/DISCUSSION...39
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
318 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 21Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS FLOW...THE MOST NOTABLE
FEATURE IS A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS / WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS SUPPORTED SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES HAVE DROPPED TO 3/4 MILE WITH EVEN ONE 1/4 MILE OBSERVED AT
LINTON NORTH DAKOTA. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SNOW...STUCK
BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SEEN ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING.
THESE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INVERSION TRAPPING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR HAS ONLY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TEENS
TO LOW 20S. STILL...THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN IT HAS BEEN AS OF
LATE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS AROUND THE REGION SHOWED AMOUNTS
OF 0.1" OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AROUND 0.25" OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...0.3-0.4" WHERE THE SNOW WAS FALLING AND 0.5" IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS EVENING...CAUSING SNOW
TO SPREAD IN AND DEVELOP. SIMULTANEOUSLY...MODELS SUGGEST THE HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NEBRASKA WILL GET ADVECTED NORTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR MORE QPF PRODUCTION FROM THE FORCING.
ANOTHER FEATURE AIDING IN MORE QPF IS SOME NEGATIVE EPV PROGGED ON
TOP OF THE F-GEN CIRCULATION...LEADING TO BANDING.
LOCATION...THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED THROUGH THE EVENING. HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED THE BULK OF
THE SNOW TRAVERSING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF
I-94. ON THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE 04.12Z GFS WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF THE
SNOW SOUTHWEST OF LA CROSSE. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW WHICH IS
GENERALLY THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CONCURS WITH EXTRAPOLATION OF
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS.
TIMING...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA BETWEEN 22-03Z WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...THEN EXIT NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 08-12Z WEDNESDAY.
AMOUNTS...04.12Z NAM/GFS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR UPWARD TREND IN QPF
AND THIS FORECAST HAS DONE THE SAME. DID NOT GO FULLY TOWARDS THEIR
AMOUNTS SEEING LIGHTER QPF FROM THE RAP...BUT AN UPWARD TREND IS
NEEDED. SREF QPF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A 0.25 INCH IS LIKELY...BUT
THERE ARE EVEN A FEW MEMBERS SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF A 0.5 INCH.
SHOULD THESE PAN OUT WE WOULD END UP WITH WARNING CRITERIA. RIGHT
NOW...WITH COBB DATA SUGGESTING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS BETWEEN 13-16
TO 1...THINKING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 3-5 INCHES SOUTH AND WEST
OF LA CROSSE. A FEW 6 INCH AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
NEGATIVE EPV. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASE QUICKLY HEADING TO THE NORTHEAST
FROM WINONA TO LA CROSSE NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER
AIR BEING SUCKED INTO THE F-GEN CIRCULATION. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST
UNCERTAIN ALONG AN AXIS FROM WINONA TO LA CROSSE WHERE ANYWHERE FROM
1 TO 5 INCHES SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.
AFTER THE SNOW EXITS...MUCH OF WEDNESDAY LOOKS QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER
WHICH WITH SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SOME WEAK OMEGA RESULTING FROM
DIURNAL HEATING...HAVE ADDED SOME FLURRIES. BULK OF THE FLURRY
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
04.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET ALL DEPICT A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT DROP THROUGH ONTARIO
AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS US BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO
PUT SOME SPEED BUMPS IN THE MODERATION.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS ONTARIO ON FRIDAY HELPS
PROPEL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY BLOWING OF THE FRESH SNOW WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE TO NEAR 30 ON THURSDAY. INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
SHOULD LIMIT SOME TEMPERATURE FALL THURSDAY EVENING...WITH RISING
TEMPS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FOLLOWING A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE...READINGS SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE
TEMPERATURE ISSUES...FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE PRECIPITATION. MUCH OF THE DEEPER SYNOPTIC FORCING
IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...BUT GIVEN THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND
LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO BE AROUND...A NEED EXISTS FOR SOME 20-30
PERCENT CHANCES. GIVEN A WARM LAYER PRESENT ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHAT
PRECIP DOES OCCUR COULD EITHER BE LIQUID...SLEET OR SNOW WITH THE
SNOW PROBABILITY HIGHEST TOWARDS TAYLOR COUNTY WITH DEEPER COLD AIR.
SINCE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIGHT...KEPT THE LIQUID FORM AS
FREEZING DRIZZLE / DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THERE
TOO COULD BE ISSUES WITH LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...FAVORING A
DRIZZLE ROUTE.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE A BIT TRICKY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
THE 04.12Z GFS PERSISTS ON DROPPING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT...SENDING A SURGE OF COOLER AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH TAKES UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT TO GET OUT OF HERE. THE
ECMWF...GEM AND UKMET ON THE OTHER HAND CONTINUE TO SAY THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STAYS MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND TRACKS QUICKER TO THE
EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH WARMER SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN EACH
MODEL GROUP HAS STUCK TO THEIR GUNS...HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW A
MODEL CONSENSUS AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
GROUP FLINCHES...THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE RAPIDLY TRENDED COLDER
OR WARMER.
MONDAY REMAINS MOST CONFIDENT TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 6-8C PER ECMWF. PRESENTLY
HAVE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT THESE MAY NEED
TO BE INCREASED MORE...DEPENDING ON HOW SUNDAY PLAYS OUT.
A COOL DOWN THEN ENSUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. INCLUDED SOME 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCES FOR THIS TROUGH. LIMITED MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN
THE LOW CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
WITH INCOMING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW...LOOKING
AT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS INTO IFR/LIFR CATEGORY AT KRST BY
03Z...LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. SNOW LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN THE
08-11Z TIME FRAME WITH A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY 11Z. 3 TO 3.5
INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AT KRST. FOR KLSE...WILL SEE
CONDITIONS SLIP INTO MVFR AROUND 01Z WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS IN
THE 04-07Z TIME FRAME. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 09Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 12Z. 2.5 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL
SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ041-053>055-061.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ086>088-
094>096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHTS SNOWS EXITING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LAST LITTLE AREA OF FLURRIES IS MOVING INTO
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN OFF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT
CLOUDS STRETCH BACK ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN WISCONSIN TEMPORARILY CLEARED OUT
THIS MORNING THOUGH ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH STRATUS
PUSHING IN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MID CLOUDS FLOWING IN AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM...WITH FORCING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND MID-LEVEL FGEN...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SNOW OVER SE NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SNOW IS FOLLOWING THE
MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE WHETHER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SNOW PASSES OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND THE TEMPERATURES NEXT.
TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE THERMAL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POSITIONED FROM FAR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE BULLISH
IN PRODUCING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WITHIN THE BAND OF SNOW...BUT
GENERALLY JUST BRUSH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
DIGGING SOUTH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL CAUSE A HUDSON BAY HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTH...AND ADVECT VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR...HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY WITH LAKE
ICE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN. THIS DRY AIR ALSO SUPPORTS KEEPING THE
BAND OF SNOW SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO WILL JUST KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER WOOD AND WAUSHARA COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES TO OCCUR LATE IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT FROM NE TO SW WITH THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR. WITH
WINDS EXPECTING TO DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
OVER N-C AND FAR NE WISCONSIN. STILL THINK TEMPS IN E-C WISCONSIN
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME TANKING DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE NE WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...THE DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL TEMPS COOL OFF A COUPLE DEGREES COMPARED TO
TODAY...SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS WITH A FEW
LOW 20S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
THE AREA WILL FINALLY COME OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE WITH TEMPS
APPROACHING NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...AND LIKELY AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY...THEN A RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
EXPECTED (BUT NOT AS COLD AS START OF MARCH). THERE WILL BE A FEW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SHOTS OF WAA...FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES...A MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE IDENTIFYING THE
"WARMEST" DAYS AND BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR A DRY BUT COLD NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. COMBINATION OF
DRY AIR...VEERING WINDS...SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...AND ICE
COVER ON LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL...SO
ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES...BUT PREFER TO
KEEP ANY FLURRY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN
DEVELOP WILL END AS WINDS TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WAA BEGINS TO RAMP UP ON THURSDAY...MAINLY ALOFT...AS 850MB TEMPS
ATTEMPT TO FINALLY REACH THE 0C MARK. INCREASING MOISTURE IS ALSO
EXPECTED...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY NOW LOOKS DRY FOR THE AREA...AS MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL ALSO BACK OFF ON
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI...BUT KEEP
LIKELY POPS GOING OVER THE NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACH.
BEST MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING STAY ACROSS THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP FOR
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS
ACROSS THE AREA...FEEL AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO
COVER ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR...PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS ABOVE 0C AIR
BRIEFLY PUSHES OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLEET AND SNOW AS THE MAIN PRECIP TYPES TO COVER THE MIXED
PRECIP CHANCE. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS. PREFER TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT AND ALLOW THE MODELS TO
SHOW A STRONGER SIGNAL. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH LOWER TOTALS AS YOU MOVE
SOUTH. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN LOOK FOR CAA TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS DO SHOW A
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT ALL BUT THE GFS KEEP THE AREA DRY AND WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE DRY SOLUTION AND NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP CHANCES. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...THEN MODELS VARY GREATLY
FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF/GEM WOULD FAVOR HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR
40...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS TEMPS IN THE TEENS. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK
TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME RAIN MIX IN WITH THE SNOW...BUT
THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS TO CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THEREAFTER...EXPECT CLOUDY BUT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHILE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
DUE TO THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BYPASS THE
REGION TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM NE TO SW
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WILL EXIST
TONIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THINKING THE VERY DRY AIR AND ICE OVER THE LAKE MAKES THE CHANCE
VERY SMALL. IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ONCE
THE LIGHT SNOW EXITS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1255 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
SNOW TAPERED OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING 5000 FT CLOUDS
ALLOWING FOR A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DUE TO SOME LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S SEEM ON TRACK.
THE 06Z AND 12Z NAM AND GFS MODELS AND NOW THE 12Z CANADIAN AND
ECMWF MODELS CAME IN WITH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN WI FOR
TONIGHT/S CLIPPER SYSTEM. TOOK A BLEND OF THESE VALUES FOR
PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS. EXPECTING THIS EVENT TO HAVE A BANDED
STRUCTURE THAT COULD PUT DOWN 3-5 INCHES OVER A SMALL AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE HIGHEST OMEGA WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI EARLY IN
THE EVENT AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH LATER IN THE EVENT.
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE THAT BAND WOULD SET
UP...BUT I FACTORED IN A TIGHTER QPF GRADIENT SOUTHWEST OF MADISON
AS A FIRST GUESS. THEREFORE...ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
IOWA...LAFAYETTE AND GREEN COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND LEFT OUT DANE
AND ROCK COUNTIES FOR NOW.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WED MORNING FROM 5 AM THROUGH
9 AM. EXPECTING SNOW TO STILL BE FALLING IN THE MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR...SO EXPECT A ROUGH COMMUTE.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CIGS UNTIL LATE EVENING AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MID EVENING AND THEN BECOME
NORTHEAST TO EAST DURING SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE THE SNOW ENDS BY LATE MORNING.
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WITH 1/2 TO 1 MILE VSBU AND
IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR MSN AND AROUND MILWAUKEE
NEAR 3 AM. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WED MORNING FROM 5
AM THROUGH 9 AM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH WAA AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE THAT TRACKS EAST
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER SRN WI IN RRQ OF UPPER JET MAX THAT
SHIFTS EAST OF AREA BY 12Z. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR LOCATIONS
FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH BY 8 AM...BUT VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL
LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
FORCING AS SECOND WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...BUT WARM ADVECTION RAISES 925MB TEMPS
ENOUGH TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH AROUND 20 IN THE NORTHEAST.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
NEXT ROUND OF SNOW EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE
IN ULD WITH LFQ OF NEXT JETLET THAT CROSSES REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z WED. BEST LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND COLUMN SATURATION OVER
THE SW 2/3 OF CWA...SO WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THERE TAPERING
OFF RAPIDLY TO CHANCE POPS IN THE NE THIRD. 06Z NAM SIMILAR TO 00Z
RUN IN MAINTAINING AN 8 TO 10 MICROBAR/SEC OMEGA MAX IN THE DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE OVER THE SW CWA...BUT HAS BOOSTED QPF UP TO 0.20 INCH.
MODEST LAPSE RATES AROUND 600 MB STEEPEN ABOVE 500 MB...BUT
INGREDIENTS PLOTS INDICATE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWS WILL
BE SOUTHWEST OF CWA. UPPED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHWEST TO
AROUND 3 INCHES...WITH LATER SHIFTS NEEDING TO ASSES THE NEED FOR AN
ADVISORY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW HANG ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXITS THE AREA. SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY MOST PLACES AS SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. DID KEEP SOME SMALL POPS NEAR THE LAKE
THOUGH...AS SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BRING A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. GIVEN MUCH OF THE LAKE IS COVERED IN ICE THOUGH...AND
SFC TO 850 MB DELTA T VALUES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES AT
BEST...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW IN ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THURSDAY
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S...THOUGH STILL QUITE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MOST OF THE MODELS HOLD OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING TEMPS AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT...LOOKS LIKE A MIX OF PRECIP POSSIBLE FOR THIS
SHORTWAVE. CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW OR SLEET THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW/SLEET/RAIN ALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE 30S. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
EVENT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING SOME DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE. THE BIGGEST
ISSUE FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER HIGH THAN THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN...ALLOWING FOR A SLOWER RETURN OF MILDER TEMPS. GENERALLY
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...AS THE GFS SUGGESTS TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO THE LOW 20S...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
PUSHING 40.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LITTLE PRECIP MONDAY...SO WENT WITH SOME
LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW. GFS FINALLY HAS THE MILDER AIR INTO
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY...SO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS... THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL EXIT EASTERN WI BY 11Z. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BROADER
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IS AT
THE MS RIVER AT 10Z AND WILL BE REACHING KMSN BY 12Z...KUES
AROUND 1330Z...KENW BY 14Z AND KMKE BETWEEN 14Z AND 1430Z. CIGS
WILL RAPIDLY RAISE TO BETWEEN 4K FT AND 6K FT BEHIND THE SNOW.
WATCHING LIGHT SNOW OVER SE MN INTO W CENTRAL WI WITH A SECOND
WAVE THAT HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS HAD BEEN KEEPING NORTH OF TAF
SITES. 09Z RAP NOW BRINGING A SMALL POCKET OF SNOW TO KMSN BY 15Z
AND THROUGH KUES AND KMKE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST AS NEED AT ISSUANCE.
NEXT ROUND OF SNOW COMES THIS EVENING WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. 00Z
MODELS INDICATING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS...WITH 1
TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN TAF SITES AND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
FOR KMSN TONIGHT. 06Z NAM TRYING TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW
OVER THE SW CWA THAT COULD EDGE TOWARDS KMSN BUT WILL AWAIT LATER
RUNS BEFORE RAISING AMOUNTS/LOWERING CONDITIONS
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ062-067-068.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
427 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH WAA AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE THAT TRACKS EAST
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER SRN WI IN RRQ OF UPPER JET MAX THAT
SHIFTS EAST OF AREA BY 12Z. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR LOCATIONS
FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH BY 8 AM...BUT VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL
LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
FORCING AS SECOND WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...BUT WARM ADVECTION RAISES 925MB TEMPS
ENOUGH TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH AROUND 20 IN THE NORTHEAST.
.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
NEXT ROUND OF SNOW EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE
IN ULD WITH LFQ OF NEXT JETLET THAT CROSSES REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z WED. BEST LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND COLUMN SATURATION OVER
THE SW 2/3 OF CWA...SO WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THERE TAPERING
OFF RAPIDLY TO CHANCE POPS IN THE NE THIRD. 06Z NAM SIMILAR TO 00Z
RUN IN MAINTAINING AN 8 TO 10 MICROBAR/SEC OMEGA MAX IN THE DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE OVER THE SW CWA...BUT HAS BOOSTED QPF UP TO 0.20 INCH.
MODEST LAPSE RATES AROUND 600 MB STEEPEN ABOVE 500 MB...BUT
INGREDIENTS PLOTS INDICATE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWS WILL
BE SOUTHWEST OF CWA. UPPED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHWEST TO
AROUND 3 INCHES...WITH LATER SHIFTS NEEDING TO ASSES THE NEED FOR AN
ADVISORY.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW HANG ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXITS THE AREA. SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY MOST PLACES AS SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. DID KEEP SOME SMALL POPS NEAR THE LAKE
THOUGH...AS SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BRING A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. GIVEN MUCH OF THE LAKE IS COVERED IN ICE THOUGH...AND
SFC TO 850 MB DELTA T VALUES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES AT
BEST...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW IN ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THURSDAY
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S...THOUGH STILL QUITE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MOST OF THE MODELS HOLD OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING TEMPS AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT...LOOKS LIKE A MIX OF PRECIP POSSIBLE FOR THIS
SHORTWAVE. CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW OR SLEET THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW/SLEET/RAIN ALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE 30S. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
EVENT.
.SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING SOME DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE. THE BIGGEST
ISSUE FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER HIGH THAN THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN...ALLOWING FOR A SLOWER RETURN OF MILDER TEMPS. GENERALLY
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...AS THE GFS SUGGESTS TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO THE LOW 20S...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
PUSHING 40.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LITTLE PRECIP MONDAY...SO WENT WITH SOME
LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW. GFS FINALLY HAS THE MILDER AIR INTO
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY...SO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS... THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL EXIT EASTERN WI BY 11Z. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BROADER
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IS AT
THE MS RIVER AT 10Z AND WILL BE REACHING KMSN BY 12Z...KUES
AROUND 1330Z...KENW BY 14Z AND KMKE BETWEEN 14Z AND 1430Z. CIGS
WILL RAPIDLY RAISE TO BETWEEN 4K FT AND 6K FT BEHIND THE SNOW.
WATCHING LIGHT SNOW OVER SE MN INTO W CENTRAL WI WITH A SECOND
WAVE THAT HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS HAD BEEN KEEPING NORTH OF TAF
SITES. 09Z RAP NOW BRINGING A SMALL POCKET OF SNOW TO KMSN BY 15Z
AND THROUGH KUES AND KMKE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST AS NEED AT ISSUANCE.
NEXT ROUND OF SNOW COMES THIS EVENING WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. 00Z
MODELS INDICATING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS...WITH 1
TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN TAF SITES AND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
FOR KMSN TONIGHT. 06Z NAM TRYING TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW
OVER THE SW CWA THAT COULD EDGE TOWARDS KMSN BUT WILL AWAIT LATER
RUNS BEFORE RAISING AMOUNTS/LOWERING CONDITIONS
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1145 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF A BAND OF SNOW IS ALREADY APPROACHING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ALONG A MID-LEVEL FGEN/WARM ADVECTION ZONE. DISTANCE/SPEED TOOL
HAS THIS BAND OF SNOW MOVING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN
23-00Z THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SNOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST...SNOW
TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE ESE TO THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING AND REACH LAKE MICHIGAN BY
12Z TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE WAVES...FORCING IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...700-500MB FGEN AND WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PUSH THE AREA
OF SNOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW THIS WILL
EVOLVE...BUT SOME MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY AREA OF SNOW MAY ALSO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA THIS EVENING ALONG THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THEN MERGE WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF
SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...THINK ALL
AREAS WILL SEE DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THOUGH PIN POINTING
WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL IS RATHER DIFFICULT DUE TO THE
UNORGANIZED FORCING. ADDING TO THE COMPLEXITY IS A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGH END SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. BEST
GUESS IS NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...FROM TOMAHAWK
TO STURGEON BAY WHERE HAVE ABOUT 2 INCHES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY...AND BE WINDING DOWN
TOWARDS THE START OF THE MORNING COMMUTE...SO DO NOT PLAN ON ANY
ADVISORIES. BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT SLICK ROADS TONIGHT
AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST. BUT EVEN
AFTER THIS TIME...THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE OVERHEAD
AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE LEFTOVER
THROUGH 700-600MB UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE THE
SHORTWAVES PULLING OUT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL REACH UP TO A
HALF INCH...AND MUCH OF THAT WILL COME EARLY IN THE MORNING. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THERE WARMING TREND
AND REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
CONTINUED NEAR ZONAL-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN U.S.
THIS PERIOD. SPREAD SEEN IN MODELS/ENSEMBLES LATER PERIODS WITH HOW
HANDLE ENERGY COMING INTO PACIFIC COAST AND EFFECTS ON UPPER RIDGE.
TRENDS ARE FOR TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO NORMS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL BLEND FOR NEXT MONDAY SHOWING UPPER 30S
ATTM. A REAL CONTRAST FROM TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AT ISSUE AGAIN TUE NIGHT AS WEAK WAVE MOVES
THROUGH FLOW. WAA SETS UP OVER BAROCLINIC ZONE TO BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN HALF OF WI. WEAK FGEN/JET SUPPORT...PASSES MAINLY SOUTH
OF CWA. AGAIN MODELS TRENDING TOWARD DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HAVE TIGHTENED GRADIENT UP FOR SNOW-NO SNOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO NORTHERN WI. KEPT CHANCE POPS
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
NEXT ISSUE WITH UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
FEATURE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CANADA. MODELS SHOWING A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH FOCUS OF PCPN CHANCES THU OVER NORTHWEST WI AND
NORTHEAST MN...MOVING INTO CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW PASSING OVER THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. AROUND
DAYBREAK CIGS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO A MIX OF VFR CIGS WITH
SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
940 PM PST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT FROM 20Z THURSDAY TO 17Z FRIDAY.
INCREASED POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE HANFORD WARNING/
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AND ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 44N/119W...WEST OF THE
NORTHERN OREGON COAST AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. SATELLITE AND RADAR
LOOPS SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS
TIME. A DEEPER MOISTURE FETCH IS BECOMING ENTRAINED IN THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW...AND THIS COULD BRING PRECIPITATION
FURTHER SOUTH THAN WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
BOTH THE 02Z HIGH-RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH /HRRR/ MODEL AND THE 12Z
ECMWF BRING THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH THAN EITHER THE 00Z
NAM-12 OR THE 00Z GFS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
STORM ON BOTH THE HRRR AND THE ECMWF...WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING
FRESNO AROUND 12Z /0400 PST/ THURSDAY...HANFORD AND VISALIA AN HOUR
LATER...AND BAKERSFIELD AROUND 16Z /0800 PST/. THE 02Z HRRR RUN ENDS
AT 16Z THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF ENDS THE PRECIPITATION AT
BAKERSFIELD AROUND 18Z /1000 PST/.
BECAUSE OF THE GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE HRRR AND ECMWF...CANNOT
RULE OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
SOUTH OF THE ORIGINAL POP FIELD...EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
MODERATE DUE TO THE LACK OF SUPPORT FROM EITHER THE NAM-12 OR THE
GFS...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE NAM-12 HAS A 45-KT 700-MB JET OVER THE
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT NEAR MOJAVE. SURFACE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...REACHING THEIR
STRONGEST BETWEEN 09-12Z /0100-0400 PST/ FRIDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TEHACHAPI PASS AND MOJAVE. PER COORDINATION WITH
WFO OXNARD...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE TEHACHAPI PASS AND
THE DESERT FROM BELOW THE PASS WESTWARD...INCLUDING MOJAVE AND
ROSAMOND...FROM 20Z /1200 PST/ THURSDAY TO 17Z /0900 PST/ FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE TEHACHAPI
RANGE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TEHACHAPI MTNS FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
POSSIBLE THRU 22Z THURSDAY...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR PASSES AND CANYONS IN
KERN COUNTY MTNS/DESERT...INCLUDING AROUND MOJAVE...AFTER 20Z
THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 152 PM PST WED MAR 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...UNDER WEAK RIDGING, SKIES ARE MAINLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM HEADS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST RUN OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS RAIN ACTIVITY REACHING THE YOSEMITE
AREA AFTER 10 PM WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LATER DURING THE NIGHT THE NAM DOWNSCALED MODEL BRINGS
PRECIPITATION SOUTH TO ABOUT MADERA AND NORTH FRESNO BEFORE SHIFT
ALL RAIN OR HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE EAST. CURRENT FORECAST OF A
HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET. FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST MODELS BUILD A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE OVER
CALIFORNIA FOR DRY AND RATHER WARM WEATHER.
THE NEXT WEAKENING SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CLIP THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT AGAIN IT APPEARS RATHER WEAK.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 03-05 84:1929 46:1981 57:1890 31:1971
KFAT 03-06 86:1899 48:1952 54:2011 31:1971
KFAT 03-07 84:1899 48:1918 57:1986 30:1969
KBFL 03-05 86:1929 50:1981 58:1975 30:1923
KBFL 03-06 82:1972 51:1958 57:1972 30:1903
KBFL 03-07 83:1993 51:1919 63:1975 28:1907
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT
/CAZ095-099/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...BSO
PREV DISCUSSION...DUDLEY
SYNOPSIS...SANGER
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
846 PM PST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS EVENING. AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEVADA WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH, WITH MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG
THE SIERRA CREST. GOOD INSTABILITY AND UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PRODUCED
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80. THE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AS THEY CROSS THE SIERRA CREST BUT
STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN LASSEN AND EASTERN PLUMAS
COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE ABOVE 8000 FEET BASED ON
PROFILER AND RADAR DATA IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. HOWEVER HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD DROP SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 7500 FEET.
THE RIDGE WINDS AROUND TAHOE HAVE DROPPED OFF ABOUT 20 MPH OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS WITH GUSTS NEAR AND BELOW 60 MPH. WILL NEED
TO WAIT UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO FOR THE FRONT TO APPROACH THE TAHOE
BASIN BEFORE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS CAN MIX DOWN IN THE RENO-CARSON
AREA. THE CURRENT NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT TAKES AWAY
FROM THE DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL ALONG HIGHWAY 395, THOUGH WILL HELP
FUNNEL WINDS THROUGH NORTH-SOUTH VALLEYS AND NEAR THE RENO
AIRPORT. FARTHER NORTH, WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH IN THE
SURPRISE VALLEY, WHERE THE FRONT SHOULD PASS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BRONG
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE SIERRA AND EASTERN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ON THURSDAY. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK STORM MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM PST WED MAR 5 2014/
SHORT TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THIS FIRST
STORM TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
IN THE SIERRA, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS
COLD FRONT AND UPPER JET APPROACH. RAIN MAY COME DOWN HEAVY AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE CREST. WITH NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
SOUNDINGS BELOW 700MB - SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH MOST OF
TONIGHT, ABOVE 8000-8500 FEET, LEADING TO SNOW ONLY AT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS. AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 6000-7000 FT RANGE BUT PRECIP IS WINDING DOWN
BY THEN. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY WAVE HELPING REGENERATE
SHOWERS ALONG THE SIERRA NORTH OF MARKLEEVILLE THURSDAY, WITH SOME
LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6500 FT.
WHILE WE EXPECT SHADOWING IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA WITH LIMITED
OBVIOUS FORCING FOR SPILLOVER, THE RECENT HRRR RUNS AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT ECMWF SHOW SOME OCCURRING BETWEEN 3-9Z. WE`RE SIDING
WITH THE MORE SHADOWED SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW, BUT I JUST WANTED TO
NOTE THIS SPILLOVER IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY AND WORTH KEEPING AN
EYE ON.
PERHAPS THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH THIS STORM IS WIND IN THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA. RECENT GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING WINDS
INCREASING TONIGHT AS MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW NEARS 50 KNOTS. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS TONIGHT INTO THE 50-60
MPH RANGE FROM SURPRISE VALLEY TO RENO/MINDEN THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY. BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
ONLY MEDIUM AS PREDICTABILITY OF THESE DOWNSLOPE EVENTS IS
NORMALLY TRICKY AT BEST. EVEN JUST SUBTLE CHANGES IN LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND/OR WIND DIRECTION CAN ALTER THE OUTCOME. BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY, GOOD MIXING AND A SOLID PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
YIELD WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WILL EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY FROM
SURPRISE VALLEY-RENO/MINDEN THROUGH TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
LAKE WIND ADVISORIES WILL ALSO BE POSTED FOR TAHOE/PYRAMID.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. FRIDAY/SATURDAY LOOK QUIET. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL
COOL INTO THE 50S (SEASONABLE) BUT THEN WARM INTO THE 60S SATURDAY
AS RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST WE`VE SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK - WITH
UPPER 20S IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS IN THE SIERRA
VALLEYS. CS
LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH SIERRA SNOWFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NEXT
WEEK. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DRAWING
A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY BUT
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PRECIPITATION ONSET. MAIN CHANGES TO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO DECREASE POPS SUNDAY AND INCREASE
POPS MONDAY TO REFLECT THE DELAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAHOE BASIN INTO
LASSEN COUNTY. THIS LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM SYSTEM WITH SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 8500 FEET SUNDAY FALLING TO 7500 ON MONDAY AS A JET
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS
WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPILL OVER INTO WESTERN NEVADA DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES. STILL SOME MODEST
DISCREPANCIES IN RESOLVING THE SHORTWAVE`S PROGRESSION AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND PUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SHOWERS DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH LOWER FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
AGREE ON A DRIER PERIOD THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT STILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES BEGINNING TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE CUTTING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WHILE THE EC BUILDS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. HAVE
SIDED TOWARDS THE EC AS SEVERAL GEFS MEMBERS KEEP THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AND HAVE KEEP US DRY IN THE FORECAST AS A
RESULT. OVERALL, LOOKING FOR MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA AND BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TUESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT. FUENTES
AVIATION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS LIKELY
FOR THE SIERRA AS WELL. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS IS
MEDIUM TO HIGH.
FOR RNO/CXP - S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS. DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AT RNO IS
POSSIBLE, 30% CHANCE, WHICH COULD BRING GUSTS ABOVE 40 KTS AND
ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS AT TIMES BETWEEN 4Z-8Z TONIGHT. LLWS AND
TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TONIGHT ON APPROACH/DEPARTURE ROUTES WITH
SLIDE MOUNTAIN (10KFT MSL) FORECAST WINDS OF 50 KTS AND GUSTS TO
75 KTS. THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A SOLID GRADIENT WIND DAY WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS 30-35 KTS. WINDS FORECAST TO SWITCH FROM S/SW TO
W/NW AFTER 18Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN. NO CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED FROM PRECIPITATION AS THE LEE OF SIERRA SHOULD LARGELY BE
SHADOWED THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF SOME SPILLOVER
SHOWERS BETWEEN 4-8Z.
FOR TRK/TVL - WHILE S/SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES, MAIN ISSUE
IS PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS, VSBY, AND MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION
DUE TO RAIN AFTER 3Z TONIGHT. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH
TONIGHT, ABOVE 8000 FT MSL, LEADING TO RAIN AT TRK/TVL. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z/THURSDAY AS STORM IS WINDING
DOWN. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE TURBULENCE AND LLWS IN THE
VICINITY OF BOTH TRK/TVL TONIGHT.
FOR MMH - TERMINAL IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS INCOMING STORM
THOUGH GUSTY W/SW WINDS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
TURBULENCE AND LLWS LIKELY. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
12-18Z/THURSDAY BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION IS A GIVEN THOUGH.
CS
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PYRAMID
LAKE IN NVZ004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY NVZ003-005.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THURSDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
NVZ002.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY CAZ070.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THURSDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
341 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
JUST OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL BE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. A COLD
AND SOAKING RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE GULF LOW TODAY. THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE WEDGE-
RIDGE PATTERN THAT IS IN PLACE. THE 05Z HRRR INDICATED SPOTTY
RAIN IN THE SOUTH PART 700 AM TO 1100 AM WITH THE MAIN RAIN
SHIELD REACHING THE CSRA AROUND 1100 AM...THE COLUMBIA AREA ABOUT
100 PM...AND THE LANCASTER AREA AROUND 300 PM. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM TODAY BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE PATTERN. WET-
BULB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH
PART EARLY THIS MORNING SO EVEN WITH AN EARLIER PRECIPITATION
START TIME IT SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WERE
AROUND FREEZING IN THE NORTH PART BUT WITH THE LATER START TIME
AND DIURNAL RECOVERY IT SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID THERE AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE DURING THE EVENING AND HINT AT SOME
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTTING OCCURRING LATE. FORECASTED THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BELOW-FREEZING LAYER AROUND 2000 FEET IN THE EXTREME NORTH
PART. THE WARM-NOSE TEMPERATURE ABOVE THIS LAYER APPEARS QUITE
WARM. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF MOS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT THE
FARTHER NORTH LOCATION OF CHARLOTTE 33 TO 35. WE RAN THE GFS TOP-
DOWN METHOD USING BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AND THE RESULT WAS ALL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL LINGER FRIDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW THE H5 CUT-OFF LOW OVERHEAD DURING THAT TIME. EXPECT
CLOUDINESS AND CONTINUED LIKELY RAIN FRIDAY BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT WITH THE MAIN LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO HIGH BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
THE COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW FRIDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND SREF GUIDANCE
WERE IN AGREEMENT FORECASTING TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES.
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS FARTHER
NORTHEASTWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY RIDGING SATURDAY. UNDER SUNNY SKIES IT
SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY OCCUR TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT
THE GREATER CHANCE HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE
AROUND 30 PERCENT. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS DISPLAY TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AFTER 09Z PROVIDING
MVFR CEILINGS ALL TERMINALS AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 14Z WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 16Z
AGS/DNL/OGB. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 MPH AROUND 12Z AND EVEN STRONGER BY 18Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
356 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Latest low cloud enhanced satellite loop shows stratus slowly
building northwest across north central Kansas along and just west
of the ridge axis. Further east low clouds were breaking up and also
reforming in spots. Areas where skies cleared temperatures dropped
into the teens while near steady temperatures in the mid and upper
20s continued under the cloud cover. RAP soundings suggest that
clouds will linger through mid afternoon out west while the 06Z NAM
suggest around mid day. Expect clouds to slowly dissipate after 17Z
with mostly sunny skies by 21Z. Increasing southerly winds and 850
mb temps warming into the 6 to 10C will see highs in the mid 40s far
northeast to the lower 50s in north central Kansas. Also patchy fog
will continue through mid morning and may become dense in a few
areas.
Warm advection continues through the night across the CWA with winds
south to southwest. Shortwave trough moving across southern Canada
and the Northern Plains will push a frontal boundary southeast. The
front should extend from northeast Nebraska to a low over the
Oklahoma Panhandle by 12Z Friday. Lows tonight will fall back into
the lower 30s with partly cloudy skies in the north and mostly clear
skies in the south half of the CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
By Friday morning, a mid-level trough will be in place over the
Northern Plains stretching toward the central Rockies. Models show
this trough deepening a bit as it advances eastward toward the
Central Plains Friday into Saturday. This deepening trough will help
to push a cold front southward into the area Friday afternoon.
Models seem to be trending a bit faster with bringing this cold
front into far north central Kansas by around 18z Friday and having
it progress southeast of the area by early to mid evening. With this
timing of the frontal passage, expect southerly winds to prevail
through much of the day across east central Kansas with a shift to
the north behind the front across northern Kansas during the
afternoon hours. As a result, could see a spread in high
temperatures for Friday, ranging from the lower 50s near the
Kansas/Nebraska border to the upper 50s and possibly even near 60
degrees over east central Kansas.
Models show modest low to mid-level frontogenesis developing behind
the front, so anticipate the development of some post-frontal
precipitation. This light precipitation may start as early as late
afternoon across far north central Kansas, but the better lift looks
to move through during the evening and overnight hours. There are
still model discrepancies with regards to how much QPF we can expect
with this system. The ECMWF continues to bring the most QPF to the
area while the GFS and NAM keep lower QPF amounts. There is also
still some uncertainty with just how quickly this precipitation will
exit southeast of the area, with the NAM being the fastest in having
precipitation exit the area by 12z Saturday while the GFS/ECMWF/GEM
keep some light precipitation lingering across east central Kansas
through much of the day on Saturday. With this uncertainty in the
timing and amount of precipitation over the area, have kept PoPs
less than 50 percent Friday night into Saturday. As for
precipitation type, with the mild temperatures during the day on
Friday, precipitation will likely start off as rain with this
system. Model soundings are in fairly good agreement in showing the
temperature profiles in the low to mid-levels of the atmosphere
cooling off as surface temperatures drop during the evening hours,
so do not see a warm nose present in these soundings as temperatures
drop below freezing. As a result, as temperatures cool into the mid/upper
20s by Saturday morning, expect any light precipitation to
transition from rain over to snow. If a wintry mix were to occur, it
should be very short-lived. With the frontogenetical forcing
shifting east of the area by Saturday morning, any lingering
precipitation during the day on Saturday looks to be supported by
some isentropic lift within the 295k-310k layer. High temperatures
for Saturday look to reach into the mid/upper 30s to low 40s, so
could see precipitation transitioning from snow back over to rain
during the late morning and afternoon hours with any lingering light
precipitation. Precipitation amounts with this system look to be
light, with snow accumulations likely around one inch or less.
This mid-level trough will progress east of the area on Sunday with
surface high pressure moving in behind this system Saturday night
and progressing into the southeastern U.S. by Sunday. As a result,
expect southwesterly surface flow on Sunday which will aid in decent
waa and temperatures moderating back into the mid/upper 50s and
possibly even low 60s across north central Kansas as models show a
thermal ridge building in across western Kansas. Monday continues to
look to be the warmest day in the forecast as the steady southwesterly
flow further supports waa through the day. Have trended a few
degrees warmer with highs in the mid/upper 60s and possibly even
into the lower 70s over north central Kansas as that well-pronounced
thermal ridge remains in place just west of the area.
Models show another cold front tracking over the area sometime
Monday night into Tuesday with some modest post-frontal lift
present. GFS/ECMWF both pick up on the potential for some
precipitation, especially across northern and far northeast Kansas
Tuesday into Wednesday, however there is still a great deal of
uncertainty with the timing and tracking of this system so only have
slight to low-end chance PoPs in for that period. Expect a bit of a
downward trend with temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with a
northerly surface flow in place, resulting in highs dropping back into
the 40s by Wednesday. While most of this precipitation looks to stay
in the form of rain, low temperatures Tuesday night may drop into
the low/mid 30s so cannot rule out a mix of rain/snow overnight into
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
Expect stratus ceilings that will vary between MVFR and VFR
through the night. KFOE may see periods of IFR ceilings.
Visibilities should be around 4SM, though if skies clear for a
while later tonight then patchy ground fog may develop. Model
forecast soundings show the boundary layer mixing deep enough for
scattered stratus by the mid and late morning hours. Expect VFR
conditions through the afternoon and evening.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
334 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...
A 1012MB SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WAS ACCOMPANIED
BY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 200 MILES SE OF MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER LARGE DIVERGENCE STRUCTURE ALOFT.
MEANWHILE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LOUISIANA MOVING EASTWARD WITH
YET ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE BASE OF TROUGH
OVER NE TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE LOCAL AREA WAS CURRENTLY IN A
RELATIVE DRY SLOT BETWEEN SYSTEMS THAT SHOULD FILL DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS UNDER INCREASING DYNAMICS AND OMEGA BY 18Z. GFS
TIME-HEIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SHARP INFLUENCES FROM COLD
POOL TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT BUT STILL MAINTAIN A
PRECIPITATION LOADED WARMER PSEUDO PROFILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO
PROVIDE SHOWERS INTERSPERSED WITHIN STRATIFORM RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND WRF 3KM LOCAL SCALE MODELS AGREE ON ONSET
OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AROUND 18Z AS COLD POOL PASSES
OVERHEAD FROM WEST-TO-EAST. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE HOURLY
POPS WITH GENERALLY 20 PERCENT LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING
INCREMENTING UPWARDS TO 70 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN
WALKING DOWN AGAIN THIS EVENING. DESPITE DYNAMIC COOLING
ALOFT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR A SLOW OR STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND TODAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPS. AFTER THIS FEATURE WORKS OUT OF
THE AREA TODAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
FEATURE A WARMING TREND UNDER ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
.LONG TERM...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH SHORT WAVELENGTH NATURE OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GREATER DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE WHETHER TO
SYNC THE FLOW OR MAINTAIN DISCONTINUOUS SPACING OF THE INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES BOTH IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES. THE ECMWF
INDICATES A LARGE ANOMALY LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH
FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OVER WESTERN MEXICO VIA A REX BLOCK
PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT THEN PROGRESSES EAST WHILE
MAINTAINING CONNECTIVITY WITH NORTHERN BRANCH CYCLONE...WITH YET
THE NEXT KICKER ON ITS HEALS IN THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THE
SURFACE REFLECTION LOW REMAINS RATHER WEAKLY INDICATED PER ECMWF.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS SHOWS A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERN BRANCH CYCLONE
ALOFT THAT INDUCES A 1006MB BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH
CONNECTION TO THE LAGGING NORTHERN SYSTEM OVER TEXAS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALL THAT SAID...THE BULK OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT CONSIDERATIONS OVER
LAND AREAS FOR TUESDAY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF ANY GULF LOW THAT DOES
FORM AND INTEGRITY OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...WHICH SHOULD BE
PRETTY ROBUST BY EITHER MODEL`S SCENARIO. THE ECMWF MAY BE
SLIGHTLY MORE PROBLEMATIC FOR LAND AREAS GIVEN COLD POOL PASSAGE
THAT MAY DESTABILIZE COLUMN FOR SOME SMALL HAIL CONSIDERATIONS. AT
THIS TIME...LEANING TOWARDS GFS BUT STILL RESERVING SOME CAUTIOUS
CONFIDENCE ON ANY EXPECTED OUTCOMES. NEXT BIG DIFFERENCE COMES ON
ENSUING SYSTEM. BOTH SHOW CONSIDERABLE COOLING FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BUT THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER FREEZE OR AT LEAST
KILLING FROST SITUATION FROM THE 14TH. GIVEN THE TENDENCIES OF
THIS COLD WINTER...WOULD NOT THINK TOO FAR-FETCHED DESPITE THE
LATENESS OF SUCH COLD AIR. IT WOULD BE RARE IN THAT THE LAST
TIME...AND IN SOME CASES THE ONLY TIME... THIS DATE SAW BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WAS MARCH 14TH 1993 WHEN MOST OF THE DAILY
RECORDS WERE SET ACROSS THE AREA THAT DAY. 24/RR
&&
.AVIATION...
MOST TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VFR CEILINGS BUT THEY ARE
RIGHT AT 3000 FEET. A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS
SHOULD BRING LOWER CLOUDS BACK TO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH SHOWERS. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MVFR DECKS
AND -RA. NOT THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SO JUST GOING
WITH SHRA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO INCREASE FROM KHUM TO MSY/NEW AND ASD
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES FROM
DEEPENING SFC LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT BUT LOW CLOUDS LIKELY STILL STICKING AROUND.
&&
.MARINE...
MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE NOW THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA HAS TIGHTENED AND CAUSED WINDS TO
INCREASE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN HALF HAS CAUSED EVEN MORE ENHANCEMENT OF
WINDS. IT SEEMS TO MAKE MORE SENSE TO ISSUE A LONG TERM SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HANDLE THE 20-25 KNOT WINDS RATHER THAN A 3 HR
LONG SCA SINCE THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED WINDS WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 15 TO
20 KNOT RANGE MOST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS THE LOW
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GULF. THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY FADE FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LEND TO A WEAK WIND FIELD AND LITTLE SEA/WAVE ACTION.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 53 39 60 43 / 70 20 10 10
BTR 56 39 60 43 / 70 10 10 10
ASD 64 42 58 44 / 70 30 10 10
MSY 61 45 57 47 / 70 20 10 10
GPT 62 44 58 47 / 70 40 10 10
PQL 61 41 60 42 / 70 50 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
24/RR
MEFFER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
312 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP
COVERAGE AND TYPE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WE FOLLOWED A BLEND...BUT
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF THAN THE GFS. RADAR SHOWED ECHOES
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KINL/KCDD AT TIMES. MORE RETURNS WERE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RETURNS
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA REVEAL SOME
FREEZING RAIN/MIXED PRECIP. WE CONFINED MENTION OF PRECIP TO OUR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA ZONES FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RES MODELS. A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A
HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE SNOW/FREEZING
PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY. STRATUS CLOUDS WERE
SURGING NORTH THIS MORNING AND THE RAP SHOWS THEY SHOULD COVER
MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY AND
WE HAVE HIGHS FROM THE MID TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH AS WELL. WE HAVE A MENTION OF
PRECIP FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE HAVING HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE FAR NORTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...AND
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL FAR SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE ISSUES
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE COOLER
ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT MORE OF A MIX. AT THIS TIME...WE CONTINUED A
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE
BORDERLAND SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW. COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO
NOT WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
AND CONSIDER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DIP TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
TWENTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE
COLD FRONT/LOW MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF...WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT. ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
MID TWENTIES TOWARD INTERNATIONAL FALLS...AND THE MID THIRTIES OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A VERY ACTIVE NRN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST CHALLENGING FOR SEVERAL REASONS. CONFIDENCE WILL BE HIGHEST
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS INITIAL MID LVL TROF MOVES EAST. A
RELATIVELY QUIET AND COLD SATURDAY IS EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MDLS AGREE THAT AT MID LVLS A SLIGHTLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL RESIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
SRN ALBERTA WITH A BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT FROM ALBERTA INTO THE LOWER
GT LAKES. ITS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE MDLS SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL
SFC LOWS WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE SE. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
SPEED OF THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIBBONS MAKES
THE FCST TEMPS/PTYPES/POPS LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT ENOUGH
WARM AIR IS PULLED INTO THE CWA UNDER THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
THAT ZL AND PERHAPS EVEN RAIN MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER SRN CWA
WHERE BDRY LYR WARMING HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. THIS MAY OCCUR AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY BUT WILL LEAVE SNOW IN FCST FOR NOW. EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY MONDAY AS MAX TEMPS IN SRN CWA MAY BE CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER IF LATEST EC/GEM ARE CORRECT. WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIP
FOCUSED OVER THE NRN TIER OF MN ZONES CLOSER TO POTENTIAL
CONVERGENCE/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW. MDLS AGREE
THAT TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO COLDER AIR WITH MAX TEMPS
LOWERING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM MONDAYS VALUES. GFS/EC AGREE
THAT A MID LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS MIDWEEK. HOWEVER
THE RESULTING DOWNSTREAM TROFS ARE NOT IN SYNC WHICH PROMOTES AN
INCREASING DIFFERENCE IN PLACEMENT OF LOW LVL THERMAL TROUGH. GFS IS
MUCH COLDER THAN EC AT THIS POINT..ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS TREND TEMPS
DOWNWARD TO CLIMO OR BELOW CLIMO AFTER THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF
EARLY WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 23 31 4 / 20 50 20 10
INL 30 19 25 -5 / 60 80 20 10
BRD 33 25 29 -1 / 10 20 10 0
HYR 34 23 35 6 / 10 40 30 10
ASX 33 23 35 9 / 10 50 30 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
402 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FURTHER EAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SSWD INTO
EASTERN TX. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA AND
NRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A SECOND LOW NOTED OFF THE COAST OF OREGON.
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH OVERCAST CONDS EXTENDING FROM
MONTANA EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS STREAMED INTO WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
GARDEN CITY KS...TO CONCORDIA KS...TO NORFOLK NEBRASKA. THIS AREA
OF LOW CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTH
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOLNS...THIS
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. EAST OF
THIS FEATURE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT...WHICH HAS LED TO A
MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. 2 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 23 AT
BROKEN BOW...TO 35 DEGREES AT VALENTINE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
TEMPERATURES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR TODAY...SURFACE TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 10C TO 12C...HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST ARE ON
TRACK. THE ONE THING WHICH MAY BUST THE FORECAST IS THE PRESENCE
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS HIGH CLOUDINESS
CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY
MID MORNING. EVEN WITH THE LIMITED CLOUD COVER...DECENT MIXING
SHOULD TRUMP ANY EFFECTS OF CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
IN MIND...INCREASED HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE AND UTILIZED MIXED H85
TEMPS FOR HIGHS TDY. FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NRN MINNESOTA...FORCING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH A
SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. LIFT WILL BE DECENT
WITH THE FROPA...HOWEVER WITH THE MID LAYERS BEING FAIRLY
DRY...DECIDED TO LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES TONIGHT. BETTER
CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AS A SECOND...STRONGER
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
MILD TONIGHT...THANKS TO ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AND
WINDS. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR SNOW TO THE LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AGAIN...QPF`S WILL BE LIGHT AS
TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PCPN TO REACH THE
SURFACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE
FAR NORTH...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH A
COLDER ARCTIC FRONT TO FOLLOW MIDDAY. SOUNDINGS ARE DRY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WITH TOP DOWN SATURATION NEEDED FOR PRECIP TO HIT THE
GROUND. TEMPS IN THE MORNING FOR THE MOST PART NEAR OR ABOVE THE
FREEZING...AND TEMPS JUST OFF THE SFC SHOULD BE ABOVE ZERO...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO START
OUT AS RAIN...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW FOR THE
AFTERNOON...FROM N TO S. AS FOR HIGHS...LOOKING LIKE EARLY DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...MAYBE EARLY MORNING HIGHS NEAR THE
NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER. AS FOR PRECIP TOTALS...WITH THE TOP DOWN
SATURATION...AM CONCERNED MODELS MAYBE OVER DOWN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VARIES AS BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE ABLE
TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH PRECIP REACHING THE
GROUND...HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT...THE LOWER
LEVELS DRY QUICKLY. RADAR RETURNS ARE LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE
LIGHTER RETURNS MAY NOT BE REACHING THE GROUND. OVERALL COULD SEE
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS...AND SNOWFALL
TOTALS OF LESS THAN AN INCH.
SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A COOL MARCH
DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS TO
THE SE WITH RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY. 850
MB TEMPS SURGE BACK TO 10C TO 15C. GFS EVEN WARMS SW NEB TO NEAR
17C AT 850 MB. GUIDANCE INTO THE 60S AND A FEW TAP 70...AND SEE NO
REASON TO GO AGAINST THIS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS IS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH MOST AREAS LESS THAN A 5 DEGREE SPREAD FOR HIGHS.
MORE UNCERTAIN DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY. NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS ACROSS NW
NEB TO THE LOWER 60S...WHILE ANOTHER MID TO UPPER 60S /AND
POSSIBLY 70/ AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WARM TEMPS WILL
PROMOTE P TYPE AS RAIN AS LOWS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS NRN ZONES COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH AFTER 2 DAYS IN THE 60S...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IMPACT FROM ANY OF THE SNOW. COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS FOR KLBF AND KVTN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BECOME BROKEN BY EARLY
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20012G18KT AT KVTN TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
356 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
...BREEZY AND VERY WARM TODAY AND WHILE WE WILL COOL DOWN FRI-SAT
WE ARE STILL IN FOR MORE SPECTACULAR SPRING WARMTH SUN-MON...
ALOFT: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE N AMERICA WITH
A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ADVANCE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS TROF WILL BEGIN TO DIG SE
TONIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES DEEPER INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
MEANWHILE...A MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING THRU THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES IS OVER THE NE STATES AND QUEBEC...AND
ENCOMPASSED THE ENTIRE ERN USA. THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION WAS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. A FRESH POLAR FRONT WAS ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER. A WEAK LOW WILL HEAD E TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK FRI. IN ITS WAKE...THE FRONT WILL DROP S THRU
THE PLAINS. IT WILL MOVE INTO S-CNTRL NEB AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BISECTING THE FCST AREA FROM ROUGHLY BEAVER CITY-
FULLERTON NEB AT DAWN FRI.
STRATUS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF HAS BEEN
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT E-SE-S OF THE FCST AREA...AND GRADUALLY
CREEPING N. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON IT AND WE USED IT TO
GUIDE THE FCST.
THRU SUNRISE: PATCHY CIRROSTRATUS WILL MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL
SUNRISE AWAY FROM LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM
OVER N-CNTRL KS. VISIBILITIES ARE 4-5 MI AT 0830Z. IT ALL DEPENDS
ON WINDS WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE S AND IF STRATUS MOVES IN.
TODAY: OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY UNDER PATCHES OF 25K FT
CIRROSTRATUS. BREEZY S WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH N OF NEB HWY
6. WINDS WERE NUDGED UPWARD 5 MPH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. A LEE-
SIDE TROF WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN...STRENGTHENING THE PRES
GRADIENT.
WE MAY HAVE A STRATUS PROBLEM S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES THRU
MIDDAY. MIXING AND THE THIN NATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ITS GRADUAL
EROSION. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON ITS ULTIMATE EXTENT AND HOW
LONG IT LINGERS.
HIGH TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT. WAS
PLANNING ON RAISING TEMPS ANOTHER 2-3F E OF HWY 281...BUT
REFRAINED BECAUSE STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST.
TONIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FRZG. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY
SUNSET... BUT SHOULD STILL BE GUSTY THRU THE EVENING HOURS.
DO WE HAVE A FOG PROBLEM TOWARD DAWN FRI? NOT SURE BUT THIS NEEDS
FURTHER EVALUATION BY THE DAY SHIFT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
TODAY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FRONTAL TROF
MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-4 DEGS N OF NEB HWY 6. THE CONSENSUS OF
MODEL 2M TEMPS /CONSRAW/ RULES IN THESE SITUATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE BY 5 AM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THRU 12Z: VFR SKC INITIALLY THEN SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS INVADE. S
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS GRADUALLY BECOMING A CIG AROUND 25K
FT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 32 KTS 18Z-22Z.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS DESCENDING TO 20K FT. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN NEAR 06Z. DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDS AND
WHILE THERE COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 23 KTS...EXPECT
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS. LLWS COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT IT HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED YET DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT. THE 18Z/00Z NAM
HAVE IT. IF WE SEE IT IN THE 06Z CYCLE...WE WILL INCLUDE IT WITH
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THE FCST NOW HAS PATCHY FOG FROM HEBRON/GENEVA DOWN INTO N-CNTRL
KS. WHERE DAYTIME STRATUS DISSIPATED...VISIBILITIES ARE DROPPING.
HEBRON AND BELOIT ARE DOWN TO 5 MI. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT...SO WE ARE CONSERVATIVE.
OTHERWISE...A FINE NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 854 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST...CONTINUE TO THINK WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FAIRLY
MINIMAL...SO WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED DOWN LATEST FORECAST LOWS
SEVERAL DEGREES TO COME IN BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH 01Z RAP GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS
FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA...ONLY MAXING
OUT AT AROUND 55KTS NEAR 28000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM
KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED MID
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AS WELL AS
INCREASED MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC ALONG THE MID LEVEL JET AXIS. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY
LACKING. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS
FROM THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL
SUGGEST MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A RESULTANT LACK IN
OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND SUCH CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA WILL
SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA BY 06Z...WITH THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WHEN
COMPARE TO LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S FORECAST
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD THEN
PROMOTE A WARMER DAY ON THURSDAY WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S CURRENTLY FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS LIE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE
START AND END OF THE PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES.
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE CWA SITS UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
GULF COAST AND A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COAST. DURING THE
THURS EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT
THAT WESTERN CONUS DISTURBANCE IS THE FEATURE OF INTEREST...AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...AND TOGETHER WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OVER CENTRAL CANADA...LOOK TO RESULT IN A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES N/NE TOWARD ONTARIO BY 12Z
FRIDAY. THE 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY PRESENT THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CWA...AND OVERALL THERE
HASNT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...NOT BAD AGREEMENT BUT THERE REMAIN DETAILS TO BE WORKED
OUT. ONE OF THE FIRST QUESTIONS THAT ARISES IS WHEN DOES PRECIP
ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA...MOST MODELS ARE TRENDED TOWARD THE
POTENTIAL CREEPING INTO FAR NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA ARND
MIDDAY..WITH THE ECMWF ON THE SLOWER SIDE. DECIDED TO INSERT JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP PRIOR TO 18Z...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT...THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SC NEB...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR KS POST
00Z...THOUGH HOW MUCH WILL LINGER INTO THAT PERIOD REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. DID BUMP UP POPS...MAINLY IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA ALREADY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MODEL TIMING NOT
IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE FRONT IN A SW/NE ORIENTATION
ROUGHLY HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TRUCKING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF
THE CWA NEAR MIDDAY...USHERING IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
REGION. SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS OVER
30 MPH EXPECTED. WITH COLDER AIR ALSO ADVECTING IN FROM THE
NORTH...THINKING THAT HIGHS FOR THE DAY /CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH/ WILL BE MET EARLY ON...PERHAPS
NEAR MIDDAY...WITH STEADY/FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. PRECIPITATION TYPE CERTAINLY ISNT CLEAR CUT AT THIS
POINT...WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED TO START
OFF...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM N TO S...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING IS NOT HIGH. AT THIS POINT THINKING THAT
THE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY SNOW. AS FAR AS
ACCUMULATIONS GO...THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW
/OR LACK OF/ IS OBVIOUSLY GOING TO PLAY A BIG PART...BUT AT THIS
POINT HAVE TOTALS IN THE HALF INCH TO 1 INCH RANGE.
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BETTER FORCING
HAVING SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS STILL
OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...AND
IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO GET THE COLDER AIR OUT...SO HIGHS ON
SATURDAY CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID 30S EAST /CLOSER TO THE SFC
HIGH/ AND MID 40S FURTHER WEST /WHERE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS STARTING
TO WORK IN/.
THEN COMES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...THESE TWO DAYS ARE
THE WARMEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME BROAD
RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BRINGING ALONG A NICE INCREASE
IN TEMPS ALOFT /PERHAPS UP TO 15C AT 850MB/. COMBINED WITH MORE
SUNSHINE...AND THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SW/WRLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING
WITH THE WINDS...HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS IN THE FORECAST.
A READING NEAR 70 NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE
SW...BUT NOT GOING QUITE THAT HIGH YET.
A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS TO SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE
PLAINS. SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH
TIMING/LOCATION...SO DIDNT GO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS BOTH DAYS IS NOT HIGH...IF THE SYSTEM STAYS
CLOSER TO THE LATEST ECMWF RUN...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
LOWERED. PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THRU 12Z: VFR SKC INITIALLY THEN SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS INVADE. S
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS GRADUALLY BECOMING A CIG AROUND 25K
FT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 32 KTS 18Z-22Z.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS DESCENDING TO 20K FT. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN NEAR 06Z. DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDS AND
WHILE THERE COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 23 KTS...EXPECT
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS. LLWS COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT IT HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED YET DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT. THE 18Z/00Z NAM
HAVE IT. IF WE SEE IT IN THE 06Z CYCLE...WE WILL INCLUDE IT WITH
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
138 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 5 AM CST THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE BAND OF PRECIPIATION FROM NEAR BOWBELLS THROUGH GARRISON.
BASED UPON MULITPLE OBSERVATIONS OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION REAHCING
THE SURFACE UNDER THE BAND...THE STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WARM
LAYER OFFERED ON THE 00 UTC NAM APPEARS TO VERIFYING BEST. ANOTHER
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
AS OF 0650 UTC...A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS LOCATED FROM CROSBY
AND ESTEVAN...SOUTHEAST TO NEAR HAZEN AND MAX. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIQUID WATER IS REACHING THE GROUND UNDER
THE MAJORITY OF THE BAND...MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW/SLEET NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NEAR TERM POPS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE GRIDS
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS TREND. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ALREADY OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
CONTINUED TO TRIM POPS ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT AS BEST CHANCES
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO CANADIAN BORDER. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE ALSO INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z
THURSDAY AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND HIGHEST NORTH...MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OVER CENTRAL
ND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
ISSUED QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ND AND DELAY TIMING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...BASED
ON RADAR/OBS TRENDS UPSTREAM AS WELL AS SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
(HRRR/RUC/00Z NAM).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. WILL NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS ND BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING
NORTHWEST. 18Z MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE 18Z NAM AND LATEST RUC ARE FARTHER
NORTH WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PRECIP COMPARED TO
GFS/12Z ECMWF. SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS OBSERVED UPSTREAM ACROSS
MONTANA...BUT STILL NOT SEEING MUCH REACH THE GROUND. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO
LOWER POPS OR REMOVE THEM ACROSS CENTRAL ND FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES.
LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND INTO MINNESOTA BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRACKING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
EAST COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PRODUCING WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION AND THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE AREA.
UTILIZED THE GFS FOR THE MAX TEMPERATURE ALOFT. THE GFS HAS BEEN
THE MOST CONSISTENT KEEPING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE ECMWF WAS SIMILAR TO THIS ON THE 04
MARCH 12 UTC RUN...BUT IS NOW QUITE A BIT WARMER AND CLOSER TO THE
NAM. THE MAIN REASON FOR GOING WITH THE GFS IS THAT EVEN THE WARM
NAM DOES NOT HAVE A REAL DEEP LAYER OF +3C TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS
IF THERE WERE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...THE THINKING NOW IS THAT
IT WOULD BE BRIEF...AND THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE SNOW.
NOW AS YOU GO FARTHER SOUTH...SAY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...THE THREAT
OF FREEZING RAIN INCREASES WITH A DEEPER WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE
SOUTH. WE WILL ALSO HAVE THE UNCERTAINTY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF HERE...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT OF SNOW ALSO INCREASES AS YOU GO NORTH. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
2...IN THE WESTERN THIRD...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO DROP OFF.
CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THUS WE
SHOULD HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVENING OR MID SHIFT WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON IF A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NEEDED...AND WHERE IT WOULD GO.
ON THURSDAY...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
AS COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH WILL BE SLOW TO DROP COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE STATE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THE LONG TERM BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
NORTHEAST ON THE TAIL END OF A MID LEVEL S/WV.
OTHERWISE...LINGERING LIGHT SNOW A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH MODELS PORTRAYING LOW STRATUS IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS ON
FRIDAY...WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 20F
DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY. MODELS STILL DEPICT LIGHT QPF ACROSS
MONTANA AND AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PICKING UP ON
WEAK EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ENERGY AND RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE SFC
HIGH.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MATERIALIZES FOR THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY
ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO HIT 40 DEGREES IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION AND THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
RIDGE FLATTENS MONDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH THIS FEATURE ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH THIS TRANSITION...ALONG WITH
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING HIGH IMPACT AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING A SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETTING UP...KEEPING THE BEST STORM
TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KMOT BETWEEN 07-09 UTC
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KISN AND KMOT WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR STRATUS OVERTAKES KDIK/KBIS/KJMS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1256 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
AS OF 0650 UTC...A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS LOCATED FROM CROSBY
AND ESTEVAN...SOUTHEAST TO NEAR HAZEN AND MAX. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIQUID WATER IS REACHING THE GROUND UNDER
THE MAJORITY OF THE BAND...MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW/SLEET NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NEAR TERM POPS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE GRIDS
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS TREND. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ALREADY OUT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
CONTINUED TO TRIM POPS ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT AS BEST CHANCES
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO CANADIAN BORDER. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE ALSO INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z
THURSDAY AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND HIGHEST NORTH...MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OVER CENTRAL
ND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
ISSUED QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ND AND DELAY TIMING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...BASED
ON RADAR/OBS TRENDS UPSTREAM AS WELL AS SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
(HRRR/RUC/00Z NAM).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. WILL NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS ND BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING
NORTHWEST. 18Z MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE 18Z NAM AND LATEST RUC ARE FARTHER
NORTH WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PRECIP COMPARED TO
GFS/12Z ECMWF. SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS OBSERVED UPSTREAM ACROSS
MONTANA...BUT STILL NOT SEEING MUCH REACH THE GROUND. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO
LOWER POPS OR REMOVE THEM ACROSS CENTRAL ND FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES.
LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND INTO MINNESOTA BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRACKING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
EAST COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PRODUCING WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION AND THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE AREA.
UTILIZED THE GFS FOR THE MAX TEMPERATURE ALOFT. THE GFS HAS BEEN
THE MOST CONSISTENT KEEPING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE ECMWF WAS SIMILAR TO THIS ON THE 04
MARCH 12 UTC RUN...BUT IS NOW QUITE A BIT WARMER AND CLOSER TO THE
NAM. THE MAIN REASON FOR GOING WITH THE GFS IS THAT EVEN THE WARM
NAM DOES NOT HAVE A REAL DEEP LAYER OF +3C TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS
IF THERE WERE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...THE THINKING NOW IS THAT
IT WOULD BE BRIEF...AND THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE SNOW.
NOW AS YOU GO FARTHER SOUTH...SAY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...THE THREAT
OF FREEZING RAIN INCREASES WITH A DEEPER WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE
SOUTH. WE WILL ALSO HAVE THE UNCERTAINTY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF HERE...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT OF SNOW ALSO INCREASES AS YOU GO NORTH. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
2...IN THE WESTERN THIRD...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO DROP OFF.
CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THUS WE
SHOULD HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVENING OR MID SHIFT WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON IF A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NEEDED...AND WHERE IT WOULD GO.
ON THURSDAY...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
AS COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH WILL BE SLOW TO DROP COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE STATE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THE LONG TERM BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
NORTHEAST ON THE TAIL END OF A MID LEVEL S/WV.
OTHERWISE...LINGERING LIGHT SNOW A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH MODELS PORTRAYING LOW STRATUS IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS ON
FRIDAY...WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 20F
DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY. MODELS STILL DEPICT LIGHT QPF ACROSS
MONTANA AND AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PICKING UP ON
WEAK EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ENERGY AND RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE SFC
HIGH.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MATERIALIZES FOR THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY
ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO HIT 40 DEGREES IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION AND THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
RIDGE FLATTENS MONDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH THIS FEATURE ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH THIS TRANSITION...ALONG WITH
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING HIGH IMPACT AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING A SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETTING UP...KEEPING THE BEST STORM
TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KMOT
BETWEEN 07-09 UTC TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KISN AND
KMOT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR STRATUS OVERTAKES
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1019 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
CONTINUED TO TRIM POPS ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT AS BEST CHANCES
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO CANADIAN BORDER. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE ALSO INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z
THURSDAY AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND HIGHEST NORTH...MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OVER CENTRAL
ND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
ISSUED QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ND AND DELAY TIMING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...BASED
ON RADAR/OBS TRENDS UPSTREAM AS WELL AS SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
(HRRR/RUC/00Z NAM).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. WILL NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS ND BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING
NORTHWEST. 18Z MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE 18Z NAM AND LATEST RUC ARE FARTHER
NORTH WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PRECIP COMPARED TO
GFS/12Z ECMWF. SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS OBSERVED UPSTREAM ACROSS
MONTANA...BUT STILL NOT SEEING MUCH REACH THE GROUND. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO
LOWER POPS OR REMOVE THEM ACROSS CENTRAL ND FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES.
LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND INTO MINNESOTA BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRACKING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
EAST COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION PRODUCING WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION AND THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE AREA.
UTILIZED THE GFS FOR THE MAX TEMPERATURE ALOFT. THE GFS HAS BEEN
THE MOST CONSISTENT KEEPING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE ECMWF WAS SIMILAR TO THIS ON THE 04
MARCH 12 UTC RUN...BUT IS NOW QUITE A BIT WARMER AND CLOSER TO THE
NAM. THE MAIN REASON FOR GOING WITH THE GFS IS THAT EVEN THE WARM
NAM DOES NOT HAVE A REAL DEEP LAYER OF +3C TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS
IF THERE WERE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...THE THINKING NOW IS THAT
IT WOULD BE BRIEF...AND THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE SNOW.
NOW AS YOU GO FARTHER SOUTH...SAY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...THE THREAT
OF FREEZING RAIN INCREASES WITH A DEEPER WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE
SOUTH. WE WILL ALSO HAVE THE UNCERTAINTY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF HERE...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT OF SNOW ALSO INCREASES AS YOU GO NORTH. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
2...IN THE WESTERN THIRD...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO DROP OFF.
CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THUS WE
SHOULD HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVENING OR MID SHIFT WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON IF A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NEEDED...AND WHERE IT WOULD GO.
ON THURSDAY...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
AS COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH WILL BE SLOW TO DROP COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE STATE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THE LONG TERM BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
NORTHEAST ON THE TAIL END OF A MID LEVEL S/WV.
OTHERWISE...LINGERING LIGHT SNOW A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH MODELS PORTRAYING LOW STRATUS IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS ON
FRIDAY...WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 20F
DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY. MODELS STILL DEPICT LIGHT QPF ACROSS
MONTANA AND AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PICKING UP ON
WEAK EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ENERGY AND RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE SFC
HIGH.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MATERIALIZES FOR THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY
ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO HIT 40 DEGREES IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN
REGION AND THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
RIDGE FLATTENS MONDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH THIS FEATURE ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH THIS TRANSITION...ALONG WITH
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANYTHING HIGH IMPACT AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING A SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETTING UP...KEEPING THE BEST STORM
TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT ALL SITES AS OF 01Z UTC. NEXT
SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM MONTANA AND EXPECT TO SEE LOWERING CIGS
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH INCLUDING KISN AND KMOT BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE MAY BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
326 AM PST THU MAR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK STORM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
.SHORT TERM...
BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV, WITH MEASURABLE RAIN SPILLING EFFICIENTLY INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80, AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MID MORNING. LIGHTNING
OVER CENTRAL CA HAS DECREASED SINCE 2 AM. THIS BAND OF RAIN HAS
MOMENTARILY SUPPRESSED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE RENO-CARSON VICINITY,
ALTHOUGH A RETURN TO GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
FARTHER NORTH, SURPRISE VALLEY HAS ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT
WINDS, WITH A PEAK GUST OF 58 MPH JUST REPORTED AT AN AUTOMATED
WIND SENSOR IN FORT BIDWELL. WILL LEAVE ALL WIND HEADLINES IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH 500 MB TROUGH PASSAGE AND A UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV SHOULD SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 45 MPH AT TIMES.
THIS TROUGH AND JET STREAK PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL (WHICH FAR OUTPERFORMED ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE WITH THE SPREAD OF OVERNIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NV) HAVE
GENERATED SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS RENO AND LAKE TAHOE BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS DO NOT
GENERATE PRECIP THIS FAR SOUTH, THE RECENT SUCCESS OF THE HRRR
WILL BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT AND WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHOWERS
FOR THE RENO-CARSON VICINITY AND MUCH OF THE WEST CENTRAL NV
BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY WAVE IS ALSO PROJECTED
BY THE GFS TO SWEEP ACROSS NORTHWEST NV. THIS FEATURE IS OFTEN
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION DURING THE SUMMER SEASON, BUT SINCE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ARE ALSO INDICATED, WE WILL
ADD A POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-LOVELOCK LINE
THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW PELLETS OR GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS.
AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY THIS EVENING, THE WINDS AND
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AS RIDGE
REBUILDS NEAR THE WEST COAST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER
TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT EAST FLOW ON FRIDAY LIMITING TEMPERATURE RISES
TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY, LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT 4-8
DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY. MJD
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH THE SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY TIME FRAME. IT IS AFTER
MONDAY NIGHT THAT THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE...AND TODAY IS NO
DIFFERENT. WITH SOME CONSISTENCY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...HAVE MADE
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND QPF FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND A
FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR EARLY MONDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME THERE
WERE NO REAL CHANGES AS NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO WARRANT BIG
CHANGES.
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH PCPN
SPREADING INTO NE CA AND NW NV MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH WITH THIS INITIAL PUSH OF MSTR...AND QPF LOOKS A LITTLE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAD INDICATED. ADJUSTED POPS UP A LITTLE
OVER THE FAR NW CWA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY THE TROUGH IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING BUT THERE IS STILL ENOUGH FORCING TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO POPS
WERE RAISED A LITTLE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE TROUGH
WILL HAVE LARGELY MOVED THROUGH. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS TROUGH THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT AND THUS LOWER SNOW LEVELS INTO THE PICTURE. DID NOT GO AS WET
OR COOL AS ECMWF WOULD INDICATE...STAYED SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN IT AND
THE GFS.
HELD ON TO AN AREA OF LOWER POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. ECMWF AND
GFS ARE SHOWING THE TROUGH PASSAGE SLOWING JUST A LITTLE BY THEN.
BUT BY THEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE BEGINNING TO DIVERGE. ON TUESDAY
THE ECMWF IS BUILDING A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE
BOTH SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CARVING A BIT FARTHER WEST...BUT
STILL MAINLY EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS CARRIES THROUGH TO TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WHERE GFS AND GEM WOULD BE COLDER THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT STILL DRY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF...BUT A FEW CARVE THIS
TROUGH OUT. WILL SHOW A WARM UP BEGINNING BY WEDNESDAY AFTER COOLER
TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL ALSO KEEP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY.
20
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...IS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND SHOULD EXIT MOST OF THE
AREA BY 18 UTC. AFTER THAT THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION AS A HEALTHY GRADIENT DEVELOPS. COULD SEE SFC
WIND GUSTS FROM 35-40 KTS MANY LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER GUSTS JUST
EAST OF THE SIERRA IN WIND PRONE AREAS.
SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODEL SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH AND EAST
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE. WILL
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR CIGS/VSBYS TO DROP TO AS LOW AS
3000/3 IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
STRONGER LOW LEVEL GRADIENT DRIVEN WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO RESULT
IN TURBULENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SIERRA AND OTHER MOUNTAIN
RANGES. RIDGE GUSTS COULD TOP 70 KTS AT TIMES TODAY.
FOR THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS...MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING FROM KTVL
SOUTH TO KMMH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. BRIEF CLEARING LATE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG
IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY KTRK WHERE IFR IS POSSIBLE IN FOG
LATE TONIGHT. 20
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE IN NVZ004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ003-005.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
NVZ002.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ070.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
933 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014
...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FORMIDABLE LINE OF
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. LOTS
OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE GULF. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE
EAST AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS TAKE THIS LINE OF STORMS INTO THE
GULF COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON (HRRR SHOWING 1-2 PM), THEN EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING (HRRR SHOWING
4-7 PM). SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE GULF CONVECTION
OVERSPREADING CENTRAL FL AND NOW ENTERING INTO SW FLORIDA TO THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD SUNSHINE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...AND HRRR DEVELOPS CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE
ACROSS SE FL WITH MOVEMENT NORTH. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN MORE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NOW IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE...AND WILL BE WATCHING THOSE MORE DISCREET CELLS CLOSELY FOR
POSSIBLE ROTATION ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS EAST COAST THROUGH 1
PM WITH POTENTIAL FOR THOSE DISCREET CELLS DEVELOPING, THEN
INCREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. WIND THREAT IS HIGHER THAN A TORNADO
THREAT GIVEN VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH TIME TODAY, BUT NEED TO
WATCH ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC COAST FOR A POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LESSER IMPACTS
INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE (WITH CELLS
AHEAD OF MAIN LINE) ALONG WITH ISOLATED STREET FLOODING. A
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AHEAD. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014/
AVIATION...
A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS A THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE VFR IS CURRENTLY FORECAST, CONDITIONS
MAY DROP TO IFR UNDER ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE
FRONT.
AVIATION...BNB/SI
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE LIGHTNING COUNT WITHIN THESE STORMS
HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY INTERACT
WITH A LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT H5 TROUGH NOW
ENTERING THE EXTREME NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IMPULSE COMBINED
WITH A LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT TO
KEEP THESE STORMS GOING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THEY
SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING UNDER A MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BUT WITH THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
BY MIDDAY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AS IT DOES...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST FURTHER INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT THE SEVERITY REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION.
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR THAT WILL FACILITATE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL
BRING THE LOW INTO THE PENINSULA SOMEWHERE AROUND THE BIG BEND
AREA SOUTH TO TAMPA AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE EARLY CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS COULD ALSO ALLOW MODEST
SURFACE HEATING TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
CLOUD COVER...THUS INCREASING INSTABILITY WHILE REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD CIRRUS DECK
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
POSSIBLY A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
DECENT HEATING AND BETTER THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS THAN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT CAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4C TO -5C.
H5 TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROGGED AROUND -10C TO -12C WHICH WITH
THE GIVEN INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT.
ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. MODEL SOUNDING DEPICTIONS OF 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES HAVE
INCREASED AND NOW RANGE FROM AROUND 100 TO 150 M2/S2 WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO FACILITATE AN INCREASE IN
0-1 KM SHEAR. ALL IN ALL...THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.
BY EARLY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TREKKING
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN FURTHER AS THE PARENT H5 TROUGH BECOMES MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT. BY THIS TIME...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
DRAGGING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY IT. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MORE LINEAR IN
NATURE AND COULD POSE AN ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITHIN STRONGER
LINE SEGMENTS. THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THEY BECOME MORE DISCONNECTED FROM BETTER DYNAMICS TO THE
NORTH AND WITH HEATING LOSS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA FOR GOOD BY FRIDAY
MORNING GIVING WAY TO MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PLEASANT AND
MILD WEEKEND FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A NW-N WIND WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND VEER TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SEAS ALSO SUBSIDING LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 69 81 56 / 70 50 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 71 81 58 / 70 50 20 0
MIAMI 83 71 81 59 / 70 60 20 0
NAPLES 80 65 76 54 / 70 40 10 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
545 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
JUST OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL BE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. A COLD
AND SOAKING RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE GULF LOW TODAY. THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE WEDGE-
RIDGE PATTERN THAT IS IN PLACE. THE 05Z HRRR INDICATED SPOTTY
RAIN IN THE SOUTH PART 700 AM TO 1100 AM WITH THE MAIN RAIN
SHIELD REACHING THE CSRA AROUND 1100 AM...THE COLUMBIA AREA ABOUT
100 PM...AND THE LANCASTER AREA AROUND 300 PM. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM TODAY BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE PATTERN. WET-
BULB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH
PART EARLY THIS MORNING SO EVEN WITH AN EARLIER PRECIPITATION
START TIME IT SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WERE
AROUND FREEZING IN THE NORTH PART BUT WITH THE LATER START TIME
AND DIURNAL RECOVERY IT SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID THERE AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
THE WEDGE RIDGE AND APPROACHING LOW. THE GFS LAMP SUPPORTS GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN THE EAST SECTION. WE HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE DURING THE EVENING AND HINT AT SOME
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTTING OCCURRING LATE. FORECASTED THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BELOW-FREEZING LAYER AROUND 2000 FEET IN THE EXTREME NORTH
PART. THE WARM-NOSE TEMPERATURE ABOVE THIS LAYER APPEARS QUITE
WARM. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF MOS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT THE
FARTHER NORTH LOCATION OF CHARLOTTE 33 TO 35. WE RAN THE GFS TOP-
DOWN METHOD USING BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AND THE RESULT WAS ALL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TIGHT TONIGHT BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND LINGERING WEDGE RIDGE.
THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EAST SECTION. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL LINGER
FRIDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE H5 CUT-OFF LOW OVERHEAD DURING THAT
TIME. EXPECT CLOUDINESS AND CONTINUED LIKELY RAIN FRIDAY BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE MAIN LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO HIGH BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND THE COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW FRIDAY. THE
NAM...GFS...AND SREF GUIDANCE WERE IN AGREEMENT FORECASTING TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. DRYING SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM LIFTS FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY RIDGING SATURDAY. UNDER SUNNY SKIES IT
SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY OCCUR TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT
THE GREATER CHANCE HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE
AROUND 30 PERCENT. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS DISPLAY TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR THE LOUISIANA
COAST WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BY 14Z AT MOST TAF
SITES AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
14Z WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR BY 18Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH AROUND 12Z-13Z AND EVEN STRONGER BY 18Z
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
538 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
JUST OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL BE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. A COLD
AND SOAKING RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE GULF LOW TODAY. THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE WEDGE-
RIDGE PATTERN THAT IS IN PLACE. THE 05Z HRRR INDICATED SPOTTY
RAIN IN THE SOUTH PART 700 AM TO 1100 AM WITH THE MAIN RAIN
SHIELD REACHING THE CSRA AROUND 1100 AM...THE COLUMBIA AREA ABOUT
100 PM...AND THE LANCASTER AREA AROUND 300 PM. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM TODAY BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE PATTERN. WET-
BULB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH
PART EARLY THIS MORNING SO EVEN WITH AN EARLIER PRECIPITATION
START TIME IT SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WERE
AROUND FREEZING IN THE NORTH PART BUT WITH THE LATER START TIME
AND DIURNAL RECOVERY IT SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID THERE AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
THE WEDGE RIDGE AND APPROACHING LOW. THE GFS LAMP SUPPORTS GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN THE EAST SECTION. WE HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE DURING THE EVENING AND HINT AT SOME
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTTING OCCURRING LATE. FORECASTED THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BELOW-FREEZING LAYER AROUND 2000 FEET IN THE EXTREME NORTH
PART. THE WARM-NOSE TEMPERATURE ABOVE THIS LAYER APPEARS QUITE
WARM. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF MOS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT THE
FARTHER NORTH LOCATION OF CHARLOTTE 33 TO 35. WE RAN THE GFS TOP-
DOWN METHOD USING BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AND THE RESULT WAS ALL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TIGHT TONIGHT BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND LINGERING WEDGE RIDGE.
THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EAST SECTION. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL LINGER
FRIDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE H5 CUT-OFF LOW OVERHEAD DURING THAT
TIME. EXPECT CLOUDINESS AND CONTINUED LIKELY RAIN FRIDAY BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE MAIN LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO HIGH BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND THE COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW FRIDAY. THE
NAM...GFS...AND SREF GUIDANCE WERE IN AGREEMENT FORECASTING TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. DRYING SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM LIFTS FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY RIDGING SATURDAY. UNDER SUNNY SKIES IT
SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY OCCUR TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT
THE GREATER CHANCE HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE
AROUND 30 PERCENT. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS DISPLAY TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AFTER 09Z PROVIDING
MVFR CEILINGS ALL TERMINALS AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 14Z WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 16Z
AGS/DNL/OGB. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 MPH AROUND 12Z AND EVEN STRONGER BY 18Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
540 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Latest low cloud enhanced satellite loop shows stratus slowly
building northwest across north central Kansas along and just west
of the ridge axis. Further east low clouds were breaking up and also
reforming in spots. Areas where skies cleared temperatures dropped
into the teens while near steady temperatures in the mid and upper
20s continued under the cloud cover. RAP soundings suggest that
clouds will linger through mid afternoon out west while the 06Z NAM
suggest around mid day. Expect clouds to slowly dissipate after 17Z
with mostly sunny skies by 21Z. Increasing southerly winds and 850
mb temps warming into the 6 to 10C will see highs in the mid 40s far
northeast to the lower 50s in north central Kansas. Also patchy fog
will continue through mid morning and may become dense in a few
areas.
Warm advection continues through the night across the CWA with winds
south to southwest. Shortwave trough moving across southern Canada
and the Northern Plains will push a frontal boundary southeast. The
front should extend from northeast Nebraska to a low over the
Oklahoma Panhandle by 12Z Friday. Lows tonight will fall back into
the lower 30s with partly cloudy skies in the north and mostly clear
skies in the south half of the CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
By Friday morning, a mid-level trough will be in place over the
Northern Plains stretching toward the central Rockies. Models show
this trough deepening a bit as it advances eastward toward the
Central Plains Friday into Saturday. This deepening trough will help
to push a cold front southward into the area Friday afternoon.
Models seem to be trending a bit faster with bringing this cold
front into far north central Kansas by around 18z Friday and having
it progress southeast of the area by early to mid evening. With this
timing of the frontal passage, expect southerly winds to prevail
through much of the day across east central Kansas with a shift to
the north behind the front across northern Kansas during the
afternoon hours. As a result, could see a spread in high
temperatures for Friday, ranging from the lower 50s near the
Kansas/Nebraska border to the upper 50s and possibly even near 60
degrees over east central Kansas.
Models show modest low to mid-level frontogenesis developing behind
the front, so anticipate the development of some post-frontal
precipitation. This light precipitation may start as early as late
afternoon across far north central Kansas, but the better lift looks
to move through during the evening and overnight hours. There are
still model discrepancies with regards to how much QPF we can expect
with this system. The ECMWF continues to bring the most QPF to the
area while the GFS and NAM keep lower QPF amounts. There is also
still some uncertainty with just how quickly this precipitation will
exit southeast of the area, with the NAM being the fastest in having
precipitation exit the area by 12z Saturday while the GFS/ECMWF/GEM
keep some light precipitation lingering across east central Kansas
through much of the day on Saturday. With this uncertainty in the
timing and amount of precipitation over the area, have kept PoPs
less than 50 percent Friday night into Saturday. As for
precipitation type, with the mild temperatures during the day on
Friday, precipitation will likely start off as rain with this
system. Model soundings are in fairly good agreement in showing the
temperature profiles in the low to mid-levels of the atmosphere
cooling off as surface temperatures drop during the evening hours,
so do not see a warm nose present in these soundings as temperatures
drop below freezing. As a result, as temperatures cool into the mid/upper
20s by Saturday morning, expect any light precipitation to
transition from rain over to snow. If a wintry mix were to occur, it
should be very short-lived. With the frontogenetical forcing
shifting east of the area by Saturday morning, any lingering
precipitation during the day on Saturday looks to be supported by
some isentropic lift within the 295k-310k layer. High temperatures
for Saturday look to reach into the mid/upper 30s to low 40s, so
could see precipitation transitioning from snow back over to rain
during the late morning and afternoon hours with any lingering light
precipitation. Precipitation amounts with this system look to be
light, with snow accumulations likely around one inch or less.
This mid-level trough will progress east of the area on Sunday with
surface high pressure moving in behind this system Saturday night
and progressing into the southeastern U.S. by Sunday. As a result,
expect southwesterly surface flow on Sunday which will aid in decent
waa and temperatures moderating back into the mid/upper 50s and
possibly even low 60s across north central Kansas as models show a
thermal ridge building in across western Kansas. Monday continues to
look to be the warmest day in the forecast as the steady southwesterly
flow further supports waa through the day. Have trended a few
degrees warmer with highs in the mid/upper 60s and possibly even
into the lower 70s over north central Kansas as that well-pronounced
thermal ridge remains in place just west of the area.
Models show another cold front tracking over the area sometime
Monday night into Tuesday with some modest post-frontal lift
present. GFS/ECMWF both pick up on the potential for some
precipitation, especially across northern and far northeast Kansas
Tuesday into Wednesday, however there is still a great deal of
uncertainty with the timing and tracking of this system so only have
slight to low-end chance PoPs in for that period. Expect a bit of a
downward trend with temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with a
northerly surface flow in place, resulting in highs dropping back into
the 40s by Wednesday. While most of this precipitation looks to stay
in the form of rain, low temperatures Tuesday night may drop into
the low/mid 30s so cannot rule out a mix of rain/snow overnight into
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Stratus is the main concern for the short term with the terminals
this morning. LIFR stratus cigs lay just west of TOP and FOE, but
are occurring at MHK. Latest trends on satellite show stratus
moving off slowly west or holding west of TOP and FOE. IFR/MVFR
vsbys will continue through 15Z with some LIFR vsbys possible.
Forecast soundings from the RAP suggest that stratus will begin to
breakup in the 15Z-18Z time frame, with VFR expected for the rest
of the period. Calm winds will become southeast near 8 kts, then
south after 14Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
619 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP
COVERAGE AND TYPE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WE FOLLOWED A BLEND...BUT
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF THAN THE GFS. RADAR SHOWED ECHOES
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KINL/KCDD AT TIMES. MORE RETURNS WERE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RETURNS
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA REVEAL SOME
FREEZING RAIN/MIXED PRECIP. WE CONFINED MENTION OF PRECIP TO OUR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA ZONES FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RES MODELS. A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A
HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE SNOW/FREEZING
PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY. STRATUS CLOUDS WERE
SURGING NORTH THIS MORNING AND THE RAP SHOWS THEY SHOULD COVER
MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY AND
WE HAVE HIGHS FROM THE MID TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH AS WELL. WE HAVE A MENTION OF
PRECIP FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE HAVING HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE FAR NORTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...AND
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL FAR SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE ISSUES
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE COOLER
ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT MORE OF A MIX. AT THIS TIME...WE CONTINUED A
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE
BORDERLAND SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW. COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO
NOT WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
AND CONSIDER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DIP TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
TWENTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE
COLD FRONT/LOW MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF...WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT. ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
MID TWENTIES TOWARD INTERNATIONAL FALLS...AND THE MID THIRTIES OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A VERY ACTIVE NRN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST CHALLENGING FOR SEVERAL REASONS. CONFIDENCE WILL BE HIGHEST
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS INITIAL MID LVL TROF MOVES EAST. A
RELATIVELY QUIET AND COLD SATURDAY IS EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MDLS AGREE THAT AT MID LVLS A SLIGHTLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL RESIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
SRN ALBERTA WITH A BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT FROM ALBERTA INTO THE LOWER
GT LAKES. ITS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE MDLS SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL
SFC LOWS WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE SE. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
SPEED OF THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIBBONS MAKES
THE FCST TEMPS/PTYPES/POPS LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT ENOUGH
WARM AIR IS PULLED INTO THE CWA UNDER THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
THAT ZL AND PERHAPS EVEN RAIN MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER SRN CWA
WHERE BDRY LYR WARMING HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. THIS MAY OCCUR AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY BUT WILL LEAVE SNOW IN FCST FOR NOW. EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY MONDAY AS MAX TEMPS IN SRN CWA MAY BE CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER IF LATEST EC/GEM ARE CORRECT. WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIP
FOCUSED OVER THE NRN TIER OF MN ZONES CLOSER TO POTENTIAL
CONVERGENCE/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW. MDLS AGREE
THAT TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO COLDER AIR WITH MAX TEMPS
LOWERING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM MONDAYS VALUES. GFS/EC AGREE
THAT A MID LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS MIDWEEK. HOWEVER
THE RESULTING DOWNSTREAM TROFS ARE NOT IN SYNC WHICH PROMOTES AN
INCREASING DIFFERENCE IN PLACEMENT OF LOW LVL THERMAL TROUGH. GFS IS
MUCH COLDER THAN EC AT THIS POINT..ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS TREND TEMPS
DOWNWARD TO CLIMO OR BELOW CLIMO AFTER THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF
EARLY WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CST THUR MAR 6 2014
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR STRATUS IS ADVECTING NORTH INTO CWA. ISOLATED FLURRIES
MAY OCCUR OVER THE SRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE CEILINGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS MAJORITY OF PRECIP IS
CONFINED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. FRONTAL BDRY WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHC OF FZDZ/SN.
SHOULD HAVE IFR AT MOST SITES AS CEILINGS LOWER NEAR FRNTL BDRY
..EXCEPT KHYR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 23 31 4 / 20 50 20 10
INL 30 19 25 -5 / 60 80 20 10
BRD 33 25 29 -1 / 10 20 10 0
HYR 34 23 35 6 / 10 40 30 10
ASX 33 23 35 9 / 10 50 30 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
606 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE BLOWING SNOW TODAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE FRESH SNOW COVER EXISTS...CLOUD COVER
TODAY /AND ITS IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS/...AND MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE
TONIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WERE CHANGED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...MAINLY JUST TIMING DIFFERENCES...MAGNITUDES LOOK
CONSISTENT. THE QUESTION IS HOW SEVERE THE BLOWING SNOW WILL BE.
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY RIGHT NOW...AS CONFIDENCE IN
THE SEVERITY OF BLOWING SNOW IS HAMPERED BY THE FACT THAT THIS
WILL BE A SOUTH WARM ADVECTION WIND. IN THE PAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE STRUGGLED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW. SO...ALONG
WITH COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO
COVER THE BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST...AND HWO.
CLEARING TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE
TODAY...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THE LOW STRATUS HANG
AROUND EASTERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. RAP
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT AT THE 0.5KM LEVEL HAS HANDLED THE
CLOUD COVER WELL OVERNIGHT...AND LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION THROUGH
THE MORNING. THIS MEANS LOW STRATUS WILL TEND TO DECELERATE OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY ACROSS THE
METRO AND AREAS EAST. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND ALSO DUE TO THE SSE WIND EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY.
NEWEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS OUR FA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. A FIRST LOOK AT A FEW HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS LACKED NEGATIVE OMEGA WITH MOISTURE...AND DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS SHOWED THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A BETTER CONNECTION IS MADE AFTER MIDNIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. GENERALLY EXPECT VERY
LIGHT FZDZ EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT
THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR US TO GET OUR MELT ON IN THE EXTENDED...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AS WE
STRUGGLE TO EVER PERFECTLY LINE UP FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE WITH
ONLY SHOTS AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP LOOKING TO COME FRIDAY AND AGAIN MON
NIGHT/TUES.
THE FIRST PROBLEM AT HAND IS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE STARTING
OUT FRIDAY MORNING DRAPED SW TO NE ACROSS MN. AGAIN THE PRECIP END
OF THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE OF THE SHAKESPEAREAN NATURE...MUCH ADO
ABOUT NOTHING. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE PLENTY MOIST THANKS TO THE SNOW PACK MOISTURE FEED...BUT
THE PROBLEM RESIDES BETWEEN 2K AND 10KT FEET...WHICH TIME-HEIGHT RH
CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS/NAM SHOW REMAINING FAIRLY DRY. IN
ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ISSUE...WE ARE ALSO SEEING A SPLIT IN THE
FORCING...WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINING UP IN SRN CANADA...WHILE
A WEAKER WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO MO/IA. TO
PILE ON THE NEGATIVES FOR GETTING MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...SAW NO REASON OVERNIGHT TO RAISE POPS ANY HIGHER THAN THE
20S/LOW 30S THAT WERE INHERITED. FOR P-TYPE...ANYTHING THAT DOES
FALL STILL LOOKS TO COME IN MAINLY THE LIQUID VARIETY...AS THE
COLDER TEMPS THAT WOULD MAKE SLEET/SNOW LOOK TO ARRIVE WITH DRIER
AIR AND THEREFORE COINCIDE WITH THE ENDING OF PRECIP AS WELL.
WHAT THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WITH THIS FRONT ARE THE BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND STRONG CAA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ITS WAKE.
HIGHS EVERYWHERE ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE ACHIEVED EARLY ON...WITH
TEMPS SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CAA WILL BE MOVING OVER MN BY SAT MORNING. THIS
COMBINED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY START TO THE
DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN FOR THE NW
CWA.
AFTER A COOL SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE STILL HIGH IN WAA KICKING IN IN A
BIG WAY SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE GET ON TO THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH...WITH A VERY MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...LOOKS LIKE WE COULD GET A FAIRLY CLEAN BURST
OF WARM AIR AS WELL...AS THIS WARMER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING ON CHINOOK
WINDS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS AND STRATUS/FOG IN CHECK.
CONTINUED TO NUDGE HIGHS UP ON BOTH DAYS...WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYONE
FORECAST TO GET INTO THE 40S BOTH DAYS. IN FACT...THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGHS AROUND 50 FOR MONDAY...SO AGAIN IF
ANYTHING...WE ARE PROBABLY NOT WARM ENOUGH. WE ALSO NOW HAVE IT DRY
FOR MONDAY...AS ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STILL RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS
AHEAD OF THE GFS FOR A CLIPPER TYPE WAVE SUN NIGHT/MON...BOTH AGREE
ON KEEPING ANY OF ITS PRECIP WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY...GFS/ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE GEM KICK OFF SOME PRECIP
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN OR IA AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET THAT IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS FOR NOW...THOUGH NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN IF WE WILL SEE ANYTHING AT THIS POINT. FOR
P-TYPE...KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW WITH JUST A RAIN...SNOW...OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTION BASED ON FORECAST SFC TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
OVERALL...WENT WITH A PESSIMISTIC FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN TAF
SITES...AND A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST. SLOW
CLEARING OF THE MVFR CEILINGS IS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. RWF WILL BE IN THE BEST SHAPE WITH CEILINGS...AS THEY
SIT ON THE EDGE OF THE MVFR DECK EARLY THIS MORNING. AXN HAS BEEN
STUBBORN TO LOSE THE CEILINGS THIS MORNING...BUT DO EXPECT THIS TO
HAPPEN BY MID MORNING. THE 0.5KM COND PRES DEFICIT OFF THE RAP HAS
HANDLED STRATUS WELL OVERNIGHT...SO PREFERRED ITS THINKING AS
MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM AFD. IT INDICATES ADVECTION OF STRATUS
NORTHWARD FROM IOWA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. BEYOND MID
DAY...THE CEILING FORECAST IS A LOW CONFIDENT ONE DUE TO VERY STRONG
850H WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AIR ABOVE THESE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.
QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS DRY AIR AND STRONG WIND
WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUD COVER...AS CLOUDS COULD
SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
TODAY...WHICH WILL TURN NORTHWEST NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR THIS PERIOD...AS IT MAY IN FACT STAY DRY AT ALL
SITES. CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP OCCURRING FRIDAY MORNING WAS TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITE.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MVFR DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONCERN
BEING THAT THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
STILL...ENOUGH CONSENSUS WAS PRESENT TO INCLUDE A BKN020 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
AS THERE IS A CHANCE THIS DECK COULD SCATTER OUT AT MSP. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER IN LOWER CEILINGS MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR/IFR. WINDS TURNING NW 10-15 KT.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS...BECOMING W 5 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
754 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 751 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY A FEW COUNTIES. JYR AND HYS ARE
M1/4SM...WITH RSL 1/2SM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
BELOIT AND HEBRON ARE DOWN TO 1/4SM IN DENSE FOG. AN ADVISORY WILL
BE POSTED SHORTLY. UNSURE HOW FAR NW TO EXTEND IT. SO MONITOR
SHORT-TERM TRENDS AS WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT AS THE MORNING WEARS
ON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
...BREEZY AND VERY WARM TODAY AND WHILE WE WILL COOL DOWN FRI-SAT
WE ARE STILL IN FOR MORE SPECTACULAR SPRING WARMTH SUN-MON...
ALOFT: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE N AMERICA WITH
A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ADVANCE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS TROF WILL BEGIN TO DIG SE
TONIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES DEEPER INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
MEANWHILE...A MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING THRU THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES IS OVER THE NE STATES AND QUEBEC...AND
ENCOMPASSED THE ENTIRE ERN USA. THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION WAS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. A FRESH POLAR FRONT WAS ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER. A WEAK LOW WILL HEAD E TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK FRI. IN ITS WAKE...THE FRONT WILL DROP S THRU
THE PLAINS. IT WILL MOVE INTO S-CNTRL NEB AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BISECTING THE FCST AREA FROM ROUGHLY BEAVER CITY-
FULLERTON NEB AT DAWN FRI.
STRATUS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF HAS BEEN
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT E-SE-S OF THE FCST AREA...AND GRADUALLY
CREEPING N. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON IT AND WE USED IT TO
GUIDE THE FCST.
THRU SUNRISE: PATCHY CIRROSTRATUS WILL MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL
SUNRISE AWAY FROM LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM
OVER N-CNTRL KS. VISIBILITIES ARE 4-5 MI AT 0830Z. IT ALL DEPENDS
ON WINDS WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE S AND IF STRATUS MOVES IN.
TODAY: OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY UNDER PATCHES OF 25K FT
CIRROSTRATUS. BREEZY S WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH N OF NEB HWY
6. WINDS WERE NUDGED UPWARD 5 MPH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. A LEE-
SIDE TROF WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN...STRENGTHENING THE PRES
GRADIENT.
WE MAY HAVE A STRATUS PROBLEM S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES THRU
MIDDAY. MIXING AND THE THIN NATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ITS GRADUAL
EROSION. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON ITS ULTIMATE EXTENT AND HOW
LONG IT LINGERS.
HIGH TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT. WAS
PLANNING ON RAISING TEMPS ANOTHER 2-3F E OF HWY 281...BUT
REFRAINED BECAUSE STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST.
TONIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FRZG. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY
SUNSET... BUT SHOULD STILL BE GUSTY THRU THE EVENING HOURS.
DO WE HAVE A FOG PROBLEM TOWARD DAWN FRI? NOT SURE BUT THIS NEEDS
FURTHER EVALUATION BY THE DAY SHIFT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
TODAY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FRONTAL TROF
MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-4 DEGS N OF NEB HWY 6. THE CONSENSUS OF
MODEL 2M TEMPS /CONSRAW/ RULES IN THESE SITUATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
WE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM FRIDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
BISECTING OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALTHOUGH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING ON FRIDAY...IT WILL NOT REALLY
GET GOING STRONGER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THIS PUTS US IN A QUANDARY
FOR DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH
PAINTING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION OVER US FOR THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE NAM IS MORE HOPEFUL FOR
PRECIPITATION . ALSO THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
QUICK SHOT AT SOME SNOW...BUT JUDGING BY THE MODEST STRENGTH OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THIS BEING DURING
THE DAY AND BATTLING WARMED SURFACES...I AM LEANING MORE TOWARD RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...AND TRANSITIONING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. EVEN IF WE DO GET SOME SNOW...MUCH OF THIS
WILL MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY WIND UP
BEING A TAD ON THE EARLY SIDE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST...BUT
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP ENOUGH AND IN TIME TO GIVE US MUCH SNOW AT
ALL. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE...AND HENCE...HOW MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...IS STILL UP FOR GRABS TO
SOME EXTENT. I RAISED WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY ABOUT 5 TO 7 KTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WIND GUST
TOOL...FOLLOWING CLOSER TO CONSRAW WIND GUSTS.
AFTER A COOL DAY FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THE COOLER
AIR...A WARM-UP WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE LOCAL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BY MONDAY...ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S...IF NOT 70S...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH.
THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A WAVE APPROACHES AND DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS HARDLY
WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE ECMWF PAINTS
A STOUT QPF FIELD OVER OUR AREA...AND THE GFS SHUNTS MOST
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND TO SOME EXTENT...TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SPLIT WITH THIS NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTION. SO LEAVING CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE...CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
THRU 15Z: AT 11Z THE VSBY DROPPED TO 6SM AND EXPECT IT TO DEGRADE
TO MVFR. HSI/AUH/JYR ARE ALREADY THERE. SATELLITE CONTS TO SHOW
LIFR STRATUS PROGRESSING N. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON IF THE
STRATUS MAKES IT TO GRI. IT IS POSSIBLE.
AFTER 15Z: IT DEPENDS ON THE STRATUS. ANY RESTRICTIVE CIGS/VSBYS
SHOULD DECAY 15Z-17Z. THEN VFR WITH BREEZY S WINDS GUSTING TO 35
MPH. CONFIDENCE: HIGH AFTER 17Z.
TONIGHT: VFR THRU 10Z WITH LLWS DEVELOPING AS DAYTIME GUSTINESS
SUBSIDES. THERE COULD STILL BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST BEFORE 06Z. MVFR
VSBYS COULD DEVELOP IN LIGHT FOG LATE. COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND
WINDSHIFT EXPECTED AROUND 11Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ064-076-
077-086-087.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007-
017>019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADO
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
552 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
BELOIT AND HEBRON ARE DOWN TO 1/4SM IN DENSE FOG. AN ADVISORY WILL
BE POSTED SHORTLY. UNSURE HOW FAR NW TO EXTEND IT. SO MONITOR
SHORT-TERM TRENDS AS WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT AS THE MORNING WEARS
ON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
...BREEZY AND VERY WARM TODAY AND WHILE WE WILL COOL DOWN FRI-SAT
WE ARE STILL IN FOR MORE SPECTACULAR SPRING WARMTH SUN-MON...
ALOFT: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE N AMERICA WITH
A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ADVANCE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS TROF WILL BEGIN TO DIG SE
TONIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES DEEPER INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
MEANWHILE...A MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING THRU THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES IS OVER THE NE STATES AND QUEBEC...AND
ENCOMPASSED THE ENTIRE ERN USA. THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION WAS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. A FRESH POLAR FRONT WAS ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER. A WEAK LOW WILL HEAD E TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK FRI. IN ITS WAKE...THE FRONT WILL DROP S THRU
THE PLAINS. IT WILL MOVE INTO S-CNTRL NEB AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BISECTING THE FCST AREA FROM ROUGHLY BEAVER CITY-
FULLERTON NEB AT DAWN FRI.
STRATUS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF HAS BEEN
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT E-SE-S OF THE FCST AREA...AND GRADUALLY
CREEPING N. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON IT AND WE USED IT TO
GUIDE THE FCST.
THRU SUNRISE: PATCHY CIRROSTRATUS WILL MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL
SUNRISE AWAY FROM LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM
OVER N-CNTRL KS. VISIBILITIES ARE 4-5 MI AT 0830Z. IT ALL DEPENDS
ON WINDS WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE S AND IF STRATUS MOVES IN.
TODAY: OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY UNDER PATCHES OF 25K FT
CIRROSTRATUS. BREEZY S WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH N OF NEB HWY
6. WINDS WERE NUDGED UPWARD 5 MPH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. A LEE-
SIDE TROF WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN...STRENGTHENING THE PRES
GRADIENT.
WE MAY HAVE A STRATUS PROBLEM S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES THRU
MIDDAY. MIXING AND THE THIN NATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ITS GRADUAL
EROSION. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON ITS ULTIMATE EXTENT AND HOW
LONG IT LINGERS.
HIGH TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT. WAS
PLANNING ON RAISING TEMPS ANOTHER 2-3F E OF HWY 281...BUT
REFRAINED BECAUSE STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST.
TONIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FRZG. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY
SUNSET... BUT SHOULD STILL BE GUSTY THRU THE EVENING HOURS.
DO WE HAVE A FOG PROBLEM TOWARD DAWN FRI? NOT SURE BUT THIS NEEDS
FURTHER EVALUATION BY THE DAY SHIFT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
TODAY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FRONTAL TROF
MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-4 DEGS N OF NEB HWY 6. THE CONSENSUS OF
MODEL 2M TEMPS /CONSRAW/ RULES IN THESE SITUATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
WE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM FRIDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
BISECTING OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALTHOUGH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING ON FRIDAY...IT WILL NOT REALLY
GET GOING STRONGER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THIS PUTS US IN A QUANDARY
FOR DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH
PAINTING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION OVER US FOR THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE NAM IS MORE HOPEFUL FOR
PRECIPITATION . ALSO THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
QUICK SHOT AT SOME SNOW...BUT JUDGING BY THE MODEST STRENGTH OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THIS BEING DURING
THE DAY AND BATTLING WARMED SURFACES...I AM LEANING MORE TOWARD RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...AND TRANSITIONING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. EVEN IF WE DO GET SOME SNOW...MUCH OF THIS
WILL MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY WIND UP
BEING A TAD ON THE EARLY SIDE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST...BUT
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP ENOUGH AND IN TIME TO GIVE US MUCH SNOW AT
ALL. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE...AND HENCE...HOW MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...IS STILL UP FOR GRABS TO
SOME EXTENT. I RAISED WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY ABOUT 5 TO 7 KTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WIND GUST
TOOL...FOLLOWING CLOSER TO CONSRAW WIND GUSTS.
AFTER A COOL DAY FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THE COOLER
AIR...A WARM-UP WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE LOCAL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BY MONDAY...ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S...IF NOT 70S...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH.
THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A WAVE APPROACHES AND DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS HARDLY
WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE ECMWF PAINTS
A STOUT QPF FIELD OVER OUR AREA...AND THE GFS SHUNTS MOST
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND TO SOME EXTENT...TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SPLIT WITH THIS NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTION. SO LEAVING CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE...CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
THRU 15Z: AT 11Z THE VSBY DROPPED TO 6SM AND EXPECT IT TO DEGRADE
TO MVFR. HSI/AUH/JYR ARE ALREADY THERE. SATELLITE CONTS TO SHOW
LIFR STRATUS PROGRESSING N. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON IF THE
STRATUS MAKES IT TO GRI. IT IS POSSIBLE.
AFTER 15Z: IT DEPENDS ON THE STRATUS. ANY RESTRICTIVE CIGS/VSBYS
SHOULD DECAY 15Z-17Z. THEN VFR WITH BREEZY S WINDS GUSTING TO 35
MPH. CONFIDENCE: HIGH AFTER 17Z.
TONIGHT: VFR THRU 10Z WITH LLWS DEVELOPING AS DAYTIME GUSTINESS
SUBSIDES. THERE COULD STILL BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST BEFORE 06Z. MVFR
VSBYS COULD DEVELOP IN LIGHT FOG LATE. COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND
WINDSHIFT EXPECTED AROUND 11Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
546 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FURTHER EAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SSWD INTO
EASTERN TX. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA AND
NRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A SECOND LOW NOTED OFF THE COAST OF OREGON.
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH OVERCAST CONDS EXTENDING FROM
MONTANA EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS STREAMED INTO WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
GARDEN CITY KS...TO CONCORDIA KS...TO NORFOLK NEBRASKA. THIS AREA
OF LOW CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTH
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOLNS...THIS
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. EAST OF
THIS FEATURE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT...WHICH HAS LED TO A
MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. 2 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 23 AT
BROKEN BOW...TO 35 DEGREES AT VALENTINE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
TEMPERATURES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR TODAY...SURFACE TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 10C TO 12C...HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST ARE ON
TRACK. THE ONE THING WHICH MAY BUST THE FORECAST IS THE PRESENCE
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS HIGH CLOUDINESS
CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY
MID MORNING. EVEN WITH THE LIMITED CLOUD COVER...DECENT MIXING
SHOULD TRUMP ANY EFFECTS OF CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
IN MIND...INCREASED HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE AND UTILIZED MIXED H85
TEMPS FOR HIGHS TDY. FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NRN MINNESOTA...FORCING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH A
SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. LIFT WILL BE DECENT
WITH THE FROPA...HOWEVER WITH THE MID LAYERS BEING FAIRLY
DRY...DECIDED TO LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES TONIGHT. BETTER
CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AS A SECOND...STRONGER
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
MILD TONIGHT...THANKS TO ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AND
WINDS. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR SNOW TO THE LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AGAIN...QPF`S WILL BE LIGHT AS
TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PCPN TO REACH THE
SURFACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE
FAR NORTH...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH A
COLDER ARCTIC FRONT TO FOLLOW MIDDAY. SOUNDINGS ARE DRY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WITH TOP DOWN SATURATION NEEDED FOR PRECIP TO HIT THE
GROUND. TEMPS IN THE MORNING FOR THE MOST PART NEAR OR ABOVE THE
FREEZING...AND TEMPS JUST OFF THE SFC SHOULD BE ABOVE ZERO...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO START
OUT AS RAIN...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW FOR THE
AFTERNOON...FROM N TO S. AS FOR HIGHS...LOOKING LIKE EARLY DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...MAYBE EARLY MORNING HIGHS NEAR THE
NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER. AS FOR PRECIP TOTALS...WITH THE TOP DOWN
SATURATION...AM CONCERNED MODELS MAYBE OVER DOWN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VARIES AS BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE ABLE
TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH PRECIP REACHING THE
GROUND...HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT...THE LOWER
LEVELS DRY QUICKLY. RADAR RETURNS ARE LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE
LIGHTER RETURNS MAY NOT BE REACHING THE GROUND. OVERALL COULD SEE
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS...AND SNOWFALL
TOTALS OF LESS THAN AN INCH.
SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A COOL MARCH
DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS TO
THE SE WITH RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY. 850
MB TEMPS SURGE BACK TO 10C TO 15C. GFS EVEN WARMS SW NEB TO NEAR
17C AT 850 MB. GUIDANCE INTO THE 60S AND A FEW TAP 70...AND SEE NO
REASON TO GO AGAINST THIS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS IS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH MOST AREAS LESS THAN A 5 DEGREE SPREAD FOR HIGHS.
MORE UNCERTAIN DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY. NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS ACROSS NW
NEB TO THE LOWER 60S...WHILE ANOTHER MID TO UPPER 60S /AND
POSSIBLY 70/ AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WARM TEMPS WILL
PROMOTE P TYPE AS RAIN AS LOWS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS NRN ZONES COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH AFTER 2 DAYS IN THE 60S...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IMPACT FROM ANY OF THE SNOW. COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AON 25000 FT AGL WILL BEGIN TO
DROP TO 12000 FT AGL BY 00Z FRIDAY. AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...CIGS WILL
FALL FURTHER TO AROUND 5000 FT AGL. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A
MENTION OF PCPN FROM THE 12Z TAF GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED
COVERAGE. WINDS AT THE KVTN TERMINAL WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
10 TO 20 KTS TODAY...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 KTS AFTER
06Z FRIDAY.
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS AON 25000 FT AGL
WILL LOWER TO 15000 FT AGL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER 08Z FRIDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
501 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
...BREEZY AND VERY WARM TODAY AND WHILE WE WILL COOL DOWN FRI-SAT
WE ARE STILL IN FOR MORE SPECTACULAR SPRING WARMTH SUN-MON...
ALOFT: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE N AMERICA WITH
A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL ADVANCE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS TROF WILL BEGIN TO DIG SE
TONIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES DEEPER INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
MEANWHILE...A MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING THRU THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES IS OVER THE NE STATES AND QUEBEC...AND
ENCOMPASSED THE ENTIRE ERN USA. THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION WAS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. A FRESH POLAR FRONT WAS ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER. A WEAK LOW WILL HEAD E TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK FRI. IN ITS WAKE...THE FRONT WILL DROP S THRU
THE PLAINS. IT WILL MOVE INTO S-CNTRL NEB AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BISECTING THE FCST AREA FROM ROUGHLY BEAVER CITY-
FULLERTON NEB AT DAWN FRI.
STRATUS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF HAS BEEN
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT E-SE-S OF THE FCST AREA...AND GRADUALLY
CREEPING N. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON IT AND WE USED IT TO
GUIDE THE FCST.
THRU SUNRISE: PATCHY CIRROSTRATUS WILL MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL
SUNRISE AWAY FROM LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM
OVER N-CNTRL KS. VISIBILITIES ARE 4-5 MI AT 0830Z. IT ALL DEPENDS
ON WINDS WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE S AND IF STRATUS MOVES IN.
TODAY: OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY UNDER PATCHES OF 25K FT
CIRROSTRATUS. BREEZY S WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH N OF NEB HWY
6. WINDS WERE NUDGED UPWARD 5 MPH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. A LEE-
SIDE TROF WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN...STRENGTHENING THE PRES
GRADIENT.
WE MAY HAVE A STRATUS PROBLEM S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES THRU
MIDDAY. MIXING AND THE THIN NATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ITS GRADUAL
EROSION. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON ITS ULTIMATE EXTENT AND HOW
LONG IT LINGERS.
HIGH TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT. WAS
PLANNING ON RAISING TEMPS ANOTHER 2-3F E OF HWY 281...BUT
REFRAINED BECAUSE STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST.
TONIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FRZG. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY
SUNSET... BUT SHOULD STILL BE GUSTY THRU THE EVENING HOURS.
DO WE HAVE A FOG PROBLEM TOWARD DAWN FRI? NOT SURE BUT THIS NEEDS
FURTHER EVALUATION BY THE DAY SHIFT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING
TODAY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FRONTAL TROF
MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-4 DEGS N OF NEB HWY 6. THE CONSENSUS OF
MODEL 2M TEMPS /CONSRAW/ RULES IN THESE SITUATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
WE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM FRIDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
BISECTING OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALTHOUGH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING ON FRIDAY...IT WILL NOT REALLY
GET GOING STRONGER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THIS PUTS US IN A QUANDARY
FOR DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH
PAINTING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION OVER US FOR THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE NAM IS MORE HOPEFUL FOR
PRECIPITATION . ALSO THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
QUICK SHOT AT SOME SNOW...BUT JUDGING BY THE MODEST STRENGTH OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THIS BEING DURING
THE DAY AND BATTLING WARMED SURFACES...I AM LEANING MORE TOWARD RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...AND TRANSITIONING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. EVEN IF WE DO GET SOME SNOW...MUCH OF THIS
WILL MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY WIND UP
BEING A TAD ON THE EARLY SIDE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST...BUT
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP ENOUGH AND IN TIME TO GIVE US MUCH SNOW AT
ALL. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE...AND HENCE...HOW MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...IS STILL UP FOR GRABS TO
SOME EXTENT. I RAISED WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY ABOUT 5 TO 7 KTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WIND GUST
TOOL...FOLLOWING CLOSER TO CONSRAW WIND GUSTS.
AFTER A COOL DAY FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THE COOLER
AIR...A WARM-UP WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE LOCAL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BY MONDAY...ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S...IF NOT 70S...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH.
THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A WAVE APPROACHES AND DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS HARDLY
WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE ECMWF PAINTS
A STOUT QPF FIELD OVER OUR AREA...AND THE GFS SHUNTS MOST
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND TO SOME EXTENT...TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SPLIT WITH THIS NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTION. SO LEAVING CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE...CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
THRU 12Z: VFR SKC INITIALLY THEN SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS INVADE. S
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS GRADUALLY BECOMING A CIG AROUND 25K
FT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 32 KTS 18Z-22Z.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS DESCENDING TO 20K FT. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN NEAR 06Z. DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDS AND
WHILE THERE COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 23 KTS...EXPECT
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS. LLWS COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT IT HAS
NOT BEEN INCLUDED YET DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT. THE 18Z/00Z NAM
HAVE IT. IF WE SEE IT IN THE 06Z CYCLE...WE WILL INCLUDE IT WITH
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
952 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...AND WILL KEEP THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE NORTHEAST UNTIL 18Z.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS COULD BE A BIT COOLER TODAY AND WILL LOWER THEM.
IN ADDITION...THE MESO SCALE MODELS KEEP MOST PRECIP AWAY FROM THE
REGION THROUGH 00Z...AND WILL TONE DOWN POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...AND WILL MONITOR THIS TREND AND MAY NEED
TO ADD WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
CHALLENGES ABOUND THIS MORNING WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND A
HODGEPODGE OF HEADLINES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...
BUT WILL FOLLOW THE RAP FOR DETAILS IN THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS AS
IT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THUS
IMPACTING P-TYPE AT THE SURFACE.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
ND IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS ESTEVAN SASKATCHEWAN AND
PURE RAIN FROM CROSBY TO WILLISTON...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RAP 0 C ISOTHERM AT 850 HPA STRADDLES THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THINK FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE. COULD STILL SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.
FOR THESE REASONS...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND
REPLACED IT WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 18 UTC. WILL
TRIM WESTERN COUNTIES AT 15 UTC. EXPECT SPOTTY ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS...BUT EVEN A THIN GLAZE CAN CREATE SLICK
CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT UNTIL 18
UTC FOR A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN MIX SINCE WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DELAYED AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN
INCH IS POSSIBLE.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION AROUND THE NOON HOUR...ANOTHER
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
SHORT-WAVE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY 850 HPA
THERMAL GRADIENT. P-TYPE WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LANGDON TO
PEMBINA TO BEMIDJI. WILL LIKELY NEED TO COVER THIS SCENARIO WITH
ANOTHER ADVISORY...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THIS MORNING/S MIXED
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END
BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST ND. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...COLDER AIR
WILL BE DELAYED SO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS SEEM
REASONABLE.
1028 TO 1030 HPA SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SOLAR AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
MN AND IA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FROM THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...BUT DIFFER IN MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION WITH
THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT. FOR
EXAMPLE...ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IS WELL EAST OF
THE GFS...AND INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THE PREFERENCE
FROM THE PMDEPD IS TOWARD THE ECMWF...WHICH THE ALLBLEND (CURRENT
MODEL BLEND...BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST) MORE OR LESS
DEPICTS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL MAKE PRECIP
CHANCES DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT CHANCES DO EXIST (JUST NOT SURE
WHERE OR WHEN).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS (EXCEPT AT KBJI) WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
DECREASING CEILINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY IMPACTING KDVL/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI.
PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BE A MIX OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...
BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ005-006-009.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
704 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
RADAR ECHOES HAVE MOVED QUICKLY INTO NORTHWEST MN...SO WAS ABLE TO
CANCEL THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
PEMBINA TO GRAFTON TO CROOKSTON. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW SLEET
REPORTS FROM PEMBINA/KITTSON COUNTIES WITH SOME AUTOMATED SITES
ACROSS THE NORTH SHOWING LIGHT SNOW. OUTSIDE OF DEVILS LAKE
EARLIER THIS MORNING...HAVE NOT HEARD OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN.
DESPITE WARM 850 HPA TEMPERATURES...LAPS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
NEAR SURFACE COLD LAYER MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW HYDROMETEORS
TO REFREEZE. FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET...ROADS WILL STILL BECOME
SLICK IN SPOTS CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL SO WILL NOT SPLIT HAIRS
BY CHANGING OVER TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. GIVEN CURRENT SPEED
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL BE ABLE TO DROP REMAINING HEADLINES
BEFORE 18 UTC.
CONSIDERED ISSUING ANOTHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
NEXT BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF THE
RAP/HRRR SHOW DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 00 UTC TONIGHT. ONLY
THE LOCAL WRF IS STILL BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO A BIT MORE
ROBUST SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-EVALUATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
CHALLENGES ABOUND THIS MORNING WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND A
HODGEPODGE OF HEADLINES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...
BUT WILL FOLLOW THE RAP FOR DETAILS IN THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS AS
IT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THUS
IMPACTING P-TYPE AT THE SURFACE.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
ND IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS ESTEVAN SASKATCHEWAN AND
PURE RAIN FROM CROSBY TO WILLISTON...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RAP 0 C ISOTHERM AT 850 HPA STRADDLES THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THINK FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE. COULD STILL SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.
FOR THESE REASONS...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND
REPLACED IT WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 18 UTC. WILL
TRIM WESTERN COUNTIES AT 15 UTC. EXPECT SPOTTY ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS...BUT EVEN A THIN GLAZE CAN CREATE SLICK
CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT UNTIL 18
UTC FOR A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN MIX SINCE WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DELAYED AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN
INCH IS POSSIBLE.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION AROUND THE NOON HOUR...ANOTHER
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
SHORT-WAVE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY 850 HPA
THERMAL GRADIENT. P-TYPE WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LANGDON TO
PEMBINA TO BEMIDJI. WILL LIKELY NEED TO COVER THIS SCENARIO WITH
ANOTHER ADVISORY...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THIS MORNING/S MIXED
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END
BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST ND. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...COLDER AIR
WILL BE DELAYED SO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS SEEM
REASONABLE.
1028 TO 1030 HPA SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SOLAR AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
MN AND IA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FROM THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...BUT DIFFER IN MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION WITH
THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT. FOR
EXAMPLE...ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IS WELL EAST OF
THE GFS...AND INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THE PREFERENCE
FROM THE PMDEPD IS TOWARD THE ECMWF...WHICH THE ALLBLEND (CURRENT
MODEL BLEND...BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST) MORE OR LESS
DEPICTS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL MAKE PRECIP
CHANCES DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT CHANCES DO EXIST (JUST NOT SURE
WHERE OR WHEN).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS (EXCEPT AT KBJI) WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
DECREASING CEILINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY IMPACTING KDVL/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI.
PRECIPITATION MAY INTIALLY BE A MIX OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...
BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ004-007-008-
013>017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ005-006-009.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
CHALLENGES ABOUND THIS MORNING WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND A
HODGEPODGE OF HEADLINES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...
BUT WILL FOLLOW THE RAP FOR DETAILS IN THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS AS
IT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THUS
IMPACTING P-TYPE AT THE SURFACE.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
ND IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS ESTEVAN SASKATCHEWAN AND
PURE RAIN FROM CROSBY TO WILLISTON...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RAP 0 C ISOTHERM AT 850 HPA STRADDLES THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THINK FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE. COULD STILL SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.
FOR THESE REASONS...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND
REPLACED IT WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 18 UTC. WILL
TRIM WESTERN COUNTIES AT 15 UTC. EXPECT SPOTTY ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS...BUT EVEN A THIN GLAZE CAN CREATE SLICK
CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT UNTIL 18
UTC FOR A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN MIX SINCE WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DELAYED AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN
INCH IS POSSIBLE.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION AROUND THE NOON HOUR...ANOTHER
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
SHORT-WAVE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY 850 HPA
THERMAL GRADIENT. P-TYPE WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LANGDON TO
PEMBINA TO BEMIDJI. WILL LIKELY NEED TO COVER THIS SCENARIO WITH
ANOTHER ADVISORY...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THIS MORNING/S MIXED
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END
BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST ND. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...COLDER AIR
WILL BE DELAYED SO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS SEEM
REASONABLE.
1028 TO 1030 HPA SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SOLAR AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
MN AND IA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FROM THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...BUT DIFFER IN MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION WITH
THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT. FOR
EXAMPLE...ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IS WELL EAST OF
THE GFS...AND INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THE PREFERENCE
FROM THE PMDEPD IS TOWARD THE ECMWF...WHICH THE ALLBLEND (CURRENT
MODEL BLEND...BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST) MORE OR LESS
DEPICTS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL MAKE PRECIP
CHANCES DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT CHANCES DO EXIST (JUST NOT SURE
WHERE OR WHEN).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014
MVFR CIGS BREAKING UP AS DRIER 850 MB AIR MOVING EASTWARD THRU ERN
ND AND ENTERING THE RRV. AT THE SAME TIME A 45KT 925 MB SOUTHERLY
WIND TRANSPORTING A STRATUS DECK QUICKLY NORTHWARD THRU ERN SD/WRN
MN. 925 MB WINDS TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT...SO QUESTION OF THE TAF IS HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG WILL
THIS IFR OR LOW END MVFR CIG DECK WILL ARRIVE AND LINGER. WENT A
BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC. DID NOT INCLUDE PCPN AT ANY TAF SITE LATER
TONIGHT-THU MORNING DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
TYPE...BUT DOES EXIST POTENTIAL FOR SHORT PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW DVL-GFK-TVF AFTER 09Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST MID AFTN DVL AND LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE IN GFK-TVF
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-
014-015-024-026-028>030.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-
027-054.
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001-004-007-
008-013>017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ005-006-009.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
540 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
THE FIRST QUESTION AS FAR AS IMPORTANT WEATHER IS WHETHER OR NOT WE
NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THE BLOWING SNOW IN SOUTHWEST MN BACK TO
BROOKINGS SD...WHERE THE BEST SNOW FELL AND WHERE THE WINDS ARE
STRONGEST. WEBCAMS AND REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATE FEW
VISIBILITY PROBLEMS BEING REPORTED THOUGH SNOW IS BLOWING OVER
ROADS. THE SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NEARING THEIR PEAK BUT
PROBABLY WILL NOT GET THERE UNTIL A BIT AFTER DAYBREAK. BELIEVE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ENOUGH AS WE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE THREATENING WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS. THE WINDS THEMSELVES ARE GENERALLY BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SOME WINDS NUDGING INTO THE BOTTOM OF THAT ZONES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE BUT FEEL THIS IS NOT
CONSISTENT ENOUGH AREA WINDS TO WARRANT A HIGHLIGHT FOR THAT. WINDS
ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG OUTSIDE THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA...AND WINDS
SHOULD SHOW A SLOW DECREASE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER QUESTION RELATES TO CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS NOT REALLY MUCH
OF A PROBLEM ASIDE FROM THE FINE DETAILS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE
EASTERN CWA STRATUS DECK. THIS IS JUST ABOUT WHAT WE EXPECTED A DAY
AGO FOR THIS TIME. A COMBINATION OF HEATING AND DRYING IN THE STRONG
FLOW SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THIS STRATUS FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SHOW
THE DECK WILL ACTUALLY BE ERODING FROM THE TOP...THIS HAS BEEN MOST
APPARENT ON THE RAP RH PROJECTIONS FOR H900/925/950 MB. A THICKER
DECK WOULD BE A LOT MORE STUBBORN BUT THIS ONE SHOULD BREAK UP
STEADILY. SKIES WILL TEND TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH CLOUDS COME AND
GO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY AS WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING THEM
CONSIDERING THE EXISTING SNOW COVER...WITH EVERYBODY EXPECTED TO
BUST THE FREEZING MARK AND GETTING AS WARM AS 50 SOUTHWEST IN
GREGORY COUNTY. COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS WEAK AND WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY
WITH MAINLY A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET POTENTIAL. IF THIS POTENTIAL
DEVELOPS THERE WOULD BE PROBLEMS...BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN
DECENT MODEL SUPPORT TO PUN THE PRECIPITATION DOWN ANY BETTERED AT
THIS TIME. IN THE MILD AIR NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT....LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THUS MOST OF US WILL SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY IN THE 20S AND 30S. PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. 0Z NAM
IS STRONGEST WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND IS ALSO QUICKER
WITH THE PV ANOMALY EXITING THE ROCKIES. THE INTERACTION OF THE TWO
LEADS TO HIGHER QPF SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE 0Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND THE PV ANOMALY...RESULTING IN LESS
INTERACTION AND WEAKER LIFT...THUS ALLOWING THE DRY AIR TO MAINLY
WIN OUT. THE STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS FROM THE NAM IS POSSIBLE...AS IT
USUALLY CATCHES ON TO THAT FIRST WITH ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. A
STRONGER FRONT WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE WE SATURATE AND GET SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVEN FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER FEEL THE SLOWER AND
WEAKER PV ANOMALY FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF IS MORE LIKELY...AS THE NAM
SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER AND CAN REALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS BEYOND 24 HOURS. THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT AND PUSH SOUTH
SOME OF THE HIGHER QPF VALUES SEEN ON THE NAM DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SO WILL GO WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT BUT WEAKER LARGE SCALE
FORCING IDEA...WHICH RESULTS IN POPS PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR TAPERING AS YOU HEAD NORTH. THIS ALSO RESULTS IN A BLENDED
QPF...SLIGHTLY SKEWED TOWARDS THE DRIER SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM. WARM
AIR ALOFT INITIALLY MAY RESULT IN A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
INITIALLY...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN AND WE WET
BULB. AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW THOUGH...MAINLY JUST A LIGHT COATING OF ICE
OR SNOW...MAYBE UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOW ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS THOUGH...AS IF THE NAM
VERIFIED SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE HIGHER IN OUR SOUTH...BUT AGAIN THIS
SEEMS LIKE A LOWER PROBABILITY EVENT AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL BE A COLD ONE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS COMMON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY
RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE COLD
LOW LEVELS WILL HANG ON...RESULTING IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND
30S. HOWEVER THE WARMUP REALLY BEGINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW
SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SUGGESTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THESE
WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IS INTRODUCED INTO THE
FORECAST FROM THE SNOWPACK AND HOW MUCH IT INHIBITS WARMING. GIVEN
THE DEEP SNOW COVER OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA...THINK THEY WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 40S BOTH
DAYS. MORE UNCERTAIN ELSEWHERE...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
SNOWPACK WE LOSE OVER THE COMING DAYS. WITH THE MARCH SUN...MELTING
COULD BE PRETTY EFFICIENT...HOWEVER TODAY AND TOMORROW MAY TEND TO
STAY MAINLY CLOUDY...AND SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER...SO NOT SURE WHERE
WE WILL BE SNOWPACK WISE COME SUNDAY. THUS STAYED ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE FOR NOW ON SUNDAY. DID WARM HIGHS ON MONDAY OVER
ALLBLEND THOUGH...AS MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE SNOW COVER WILL BE LESS
OF A FACTOR OUTSIDE OF OUR EASTERN AREAS. THUS 50S AND LOW 60S
SHOULD BE A GOOD BET ON MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS COULD END UP SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST
DEPENDING ON THE ABOVE SNOW COVER IMPACT THOUGH...SO WILL NEED TO
FINE TUNE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH NOT THAT COLD
OF AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE HIGHS COULD
STAY IN THE 30S AND 40S. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT...BUT COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GIVEN THE WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TYPE
COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN FOG WITH LOCAL
VISIBILITIES 1-3SM FROM SUX TO JUST EAST OF HON AND EAST WILL
SLOWLY BECOME VFR FROM THE WEST 15Z-07/00Z. VFR WESTERN PART OF
THE AREA. LOCAL SOUTHERLY SURFACE GUSTS ABOVE 25 KNOTS OVER
SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH 20Z. AFTER 07/06Z CEILINGS 2-4K FEET WILL
DEVELOP FROM THE NNW BEHIND CDFNT. A FEW AREAS OF -FZRA ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1020 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...GULF COAST SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF SOUTH OF MOBILE AL AT 14Z.
ANY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM STILL SOUTH OF I-20...SO RAIN
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RUC MODEL DOES MOVE SOME
LIGHT RAIN INTO SW NC VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS DOES LATEST RUN
OF NAM MODEL. THUS...WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR SE TN AND SW NC WITH
REMAINING AREAS DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS MAINLY AFFECTING SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUNSHINE
STILL IN THE MIX ACROSS SW VA AND NE TN. TEMPS ACTUALLY RUNNING AT
OR ABOVE HOURLY GRIDS SO FAR THIS MORNING. WILL ADJUST A FEW TEMPS
AS NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING AND FRESHEN ANY AFFECTED PRODUCTS.
FOR TONIGHT...12Z NAM MODEL STILL WARM OVER OUR FORECAST AREA BUT
DOES ALLOW FOR A POSSIBLE MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN
OVER OUR FAR NE CORNER SUCH AS RUSSELL AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES OF SW
VA. THIS WOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD AND SOUNDINGS MUCH TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT ANY SNOW. WILL WAIT FOR REST OF 12Z MODEL DATA AND STICK
WITH CURRENT GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 54 38 61 39 67 / 30 60 20 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 37 57 36 65 / 10 50 20 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 55 37 58 36 63 / 10 40 10 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 31 53 33 63 / 10 70 30 10 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
601 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
IR/3.9-11 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ERODING AS COLD
FRONT PUSHS TO NEAR THE COAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR/MFVR CIGS
TO IMPROVE OVER THE LAST HOUR. EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS THE NEXT 6-12
HRS. CONCERNED THAT CLOUD COVER OVER N TX MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA
BUT MODELS ARE MIXING ENOUGH THAT DOUBT THERE WILL BE OVC/BKN MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP. LIKED HRRR RUNS WHERE THESE CLOUDS DO ERODE BUT
STILL DEVELOP SCT/BKN CLOUDS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY
BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS WERE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS EMERGED BEGINNING SUNDAY. OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL SITE MEX AND ECMWF GUIDANCE NUMBERS
DIFFERED BY MORE THAN 10 DEGREES. BECAUSE OF THIS...DECIDED TO
TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODELS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR TODAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO SE TX. EXPECT THE
CLOUD COVER TO SCATTER OUT AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS MAY GET UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO ONE
MORE NIGHT OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.
AM LESS CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND
DUE TO THE MORE DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 WAS DRIER FOR
SATURDAY EVEN WITH THE MODEL PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
THE ECMWF WAS VERY WET WHILE THE GFS WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO. MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS DID NOT SHOW A LOT OF INSTABILITY
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS CONFIRMED BY FORECASTS OF THE LIFTED
INDEX FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE DRIER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF
DIFFERED EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY. DECIDED LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE
PREVIOUS RAIN CHANCE FORECAST AND BLEND IN WITH THE SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER IN TIMING AND LOCATION...BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS PUSH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX AND OFF THE COAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...KEPT SOME RAIN CHANCES TOWARD
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY...AND AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT.
40
MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH SE TX TODAY SHOULD
REACH THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT N/NW WINDS TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS. WILL HAVE SCEC AS
DO NOT SEE SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20KTS TO WARRANT SCA. SCEC WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER E TX TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST SOMETIME SUNDAY BUT ALL MODELS SHOW CONFLICTING
TIMING. GFS/ECMWF EVEN HAVING TROUBLE DETERMINING IF A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY (ECMWF) OR TUESDAY (GFS). THIS WILL
LIKELY IMPACT WINDS/SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ECMWF HAS STRONG COLD FRONT ON WED WHERE
GFS HAS FRONT COMING THROUGH NEXT THUR.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 38 67 50 69 / 0 0 10 10 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 39 66 51 71 / 10 0 10 10 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 59 47 61 55 67 / 10 0 10 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
924 AM PST Thu Mar 6 2014
.Synopsis...
Lingering showers are possible today, along with a few
thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. Dry and mild
conditions expected for Friday and Saturday. A disturbance late
Sunday into Monday will bring another chance of precipitation to
the area.
&&
.Discussion...
Disturbance will drop southeast over Norcal this afternoon
increasing shower and isolated thunderstorm coverage. The best
coverage will be over the northern valley and mountains along with
the Sierra. HRRR model pinpoints Butte county and Lassen area with
best convective coverage this afternoon and have updated forecast
to shift threat into these areas. Small hail will be possible in
some of the stronger storms. Models not showing much precip in the
valleys...but will keep isolated showers in the forecast with
disturbance nearby. Otherwise...forecast is on track.
.Previous Discussion...
A convective band which pushed through Norcal this evening
brought some excitement in the form of heavy rain and lightning.
450+ cloud-to-ground strikes were recorded between 9pm and 2am.
Conditions have quieted down now, with area radars showing
lingering showers mostly confined to the mountains and no
lightning activity. Interestingly, this convection was
accomplished without much upper-level dynamics. The NAM suggests
the main trigger was strong cold air advection aloft combined
with a favorable moisture tap near the surface.
Better upper-level dynamics can be expected today as a shortwave
trough and associated vortmax push through NorCal. Convective
parameters such as MUCAPE look much more impressive than
yesterday evening in fact. Lapse rates remain fairly steep with
CAA aloft. The only component less favorable than yesterday is
less low-level moisture to work with. Drier conditions may limit
convection to cumulus development as opposed to showers and
thunderstorms, as hinted at by the NAM12 in buffkit. If anything
does get going, there will be plenty of shear aloft with trough
passage. Have gone with a chance of showers and slight chance
thunder from Sacramento northward. Snow levels will lower to
around 6000 feet by the afternoon, although it appears light
precip amounts will limit accumulations to only a few inches over
the passes. Breezy conditions can be expected for the higher
Sierra.
Showers decrease quickly Thursday evening as ridging builds into
the West Coast. Temperatures will be warm but not record-
breaking, rising into the 70s in the Central Valley 50s/60s in
the mountains.
The ridge begins to break down Sunday allowing a 1.25"+ PWAT tap
to approach the NorCal coast, while A trough moving into the
Pacific NW provides some weak dynamics. Models are in fair
agreement in pushing a resulting precipitation band across our
area by late Sunday. The best chances look to be initially north
of I-80, then eventually spreading to the whole area by Monday.
-DVC
&&
.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
Pacific frontal system still on track to drop across NORCAL early
Monday with only slight timing differences across models. Dynamics
with this system are not overly impressive. The subtropical
moisture plume feeding into this system is fairly impressive
however with GFS still showing 1.35 inches TPW just offshore.
Still...with relatively weak dynamics...Models showing this storm
will be a low to moderate precipitation producer and with snow
levels mainly above 7000 feet impacts should be minimal. With warm
airmass and some afternoon clearing possible...looking for daytime
highs on Monday at a few degrees above normal.
Extended models in good agreement in building a high amplitude
ridge over the west coast so after a few possible lingering
showers Tuesday morning...precipitation threat disappears for at
least the remainder of the week. Daytime highs under the ridge
will remain well above normal under mainly fair skies Wednesday
through Thursday. Surface high pressure pushing into the Pacific
Northwest will bring a transition to northerly winds Tuesday. GFS
model shows a fairly tight northeast surface gradient developing
Wednesday morning as an upper shortwave drops into the great
basin. Therefore...a period of breezy to gusty north winds will be
possible around the middle of next week. Current extended models
are indicating that there will be no return of a wet pattern for
Northern California through at least next weekend.
&&
.Aviation...
A second Pacific front will be moving across interior Norcal
roughly from late morning into the afternoon. Line of showers and
isolated thunderstorms expected to affect TAF sites mainly central
and Nrn SAC vly from KMYV...Nwd to KRBL and KRDD. MVFR cigs/vsbys
expected with showers and isolated TRWS in proximity of
front...otherwise mostly VFR conditions. VFR all areas tonight.
South to Southwest winds with gusts to 30 knots higher Sierra
elevations today. Sly winds up to 10 knots in the valley.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1018 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. SATELLITE SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO COLORADO. GUSTY WINDS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
FOOTHILLS. COMBINATION OF MIXING AND CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW OF AROUND
35 KTS WILL KEEP WINDS A BIT GUSTY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS
THE HIGHER RIDGES...WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 60 MPH AT TIMES.
COULD SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH NEAR THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS
AS WELL. AIRMASS FAIRLY WARM WITH READINGS ALREADY IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE DENVER AREA. DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S DESPITE THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
READINGS COULD APPROACH 70 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MOUNTAIN
PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS
BECOMES A BIT UNSTABLE. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...SO THE CURRENT ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 31 AND 33 STILL
LOOK ON TRACK WITH AMOUNT OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ZONE 31 AND 1 TO 3
INCHES ACROSS ZONE 33.
.AVIATION...CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH WILL DELAY
THE WESTERLY WINDS AT KDEN AND KAPA TO 19Z PER THE LATEST RAP AND
HRRR. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT THE NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASING
DURING THE EVENING AND MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO DRAINAGE BEFORE GOING
NORTHWEST AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST
WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE EVENING. INCREASING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY 18Z FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. AT THIS TIME...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN
INCH DUE TO EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND 700MB TEMPS CLIMB
TO NEAR +5C. TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS TODAY AS CROSS BARRIER FLOW 30-40KT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-60 MPH RANGE. ALREADY SEEING A FEW WIND
GUSTS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES FROM 30 TO 55 MPH.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MID-HI LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND THIS WILL ADVANCE INTO COLORADO LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANY CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
THIS EVENING AND HAVE REMOVED MOST OF THE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ZONE 31. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE MOUNTAINS
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE DEEPENS ALONG WITH
WEAK QG FORCING. LOCAL SNOW MODELS YIELDS ABOUT 2-5 INCHES IN
ZONE 31 AND 1-3 INCHES IN ZONE 33-34. GIVEN HEAVIER SNOW TOWARDS
FRIDAY MORNING AND BEYOND WILL ISSUE ADVISORY FROM LATER THIS
EVENING IN ZONES 31 AND 34 BUT HOLD OFF ON ZONE 34 UNTIL DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY.
AS FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT...GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT BUT
MIGHT BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TOWARDS THE NORTHERN BORDER LATE IN
THE NIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.
LONG TERM...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER...UPWARD QG VERTICAL
VELOCITIES WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGHER
SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL BE PUSHING
FURTHER INTO THE STATE TO TURN FLOW UPSLOPE AGAINST THE FRONT
RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THIS WILL GET ZONE 34...THE I-70
CORRIDOR MOUNTAINS...GOING WITH BETTER SNOW PRODUCTION. THEREFORE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT THERE AT 6 AM. HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODELS AS THEY HAVE HAD GOOD
CONSISTENCY WHEREAS THE NAM IS TOO FAST AS IT KEEPS THE TROUGH TOO
OPEN AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH. GOOD MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED OVER THE
PACIFIC WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND
PLAINS WITH ONE TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT THAT COLD WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MAX TEMPERATURES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE UPPER 20S AT
THE HIGHER PEAKS TO UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH VALLEYS. THEREFORE
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE LOW. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES TURNING TO DOWNWARD MOTION TO
BEGIN TO DECREASE SNOW OVER THE PARK AND GORE RANGES AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT MOUNTAINS NEAR ROCKY MOUNTAIN NP. CONTINUED UPSLOPE
FLOW SLIGHTLY MORE UPWARD QG MOTIONS WILL KEEP SNOW GOING OVER THE
FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. OVERALL 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER
THE PARK AND GORE RANGES...THEN 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE FRONT
RANGE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING SUMMIT COUNTY. MUCH DRIER AIR UNDER AN
INCOMING RIDGE ALONG WITH DOWNWARD QG MOTIONS WILL DIMINISH SNOW
OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUED
DRY PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY.
OVER THE PLAINS...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S EXPECTED. UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE PLAINS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN COOLING HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO LITTLE TO
NONE. THE MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH ONE TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED.
SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY...AND IS
VERIFIED BY THE CURRENT AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DISPLAYING
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS AIRMASS
IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE STATE FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MORE
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED TO ADD A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS AIRMASS ENDS UP ON COURSE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AGAIN ON SATURDAY THEN MUCH MORE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER WILL
COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS UPPER 60S OVER THE PLAINS AND
IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR NICE EARLY SPRING
WEATHER.
THE NEXT PROGGED SYSTEM WILL BE A LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA. TEMPERATURES LOOK
COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS STILL FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT HAS SHOWN SOME SLOWING OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS...CLOSER TO THE GFS. HAVE BLENDED THESE TWO MODELS WHICH WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THE THE MOUNTAINS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES SOUTH.
AVIATION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS OF 10-20KT THIS
MORNING AND WILL SHIFT WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT ALONG WITH MODEST SURFACE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE STATE. INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS AM
AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR COZ034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COZ031-033.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
416 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...ISSUED LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL SE GA AND NE FL FOR
THIS EVENING. OBS AT SSI...NRB...AND SGJ SHOW NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO
30 TO 35 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT AS EASTERN GULF
SURFACE LOW LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA.
.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT)...
HRRR HI-RES GUIDANCE DOING GENERALLY A GOOD JOB...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE
SLOW WITH EASTWARD MOTION...ON PRECIP BAND THAT MOVED ACROSS FL
PENINSULA AND SRN GA. PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE
AREA SINCE 1PM, AGAIN A BIT AHEAD OF HRRR GUIDANCE. OUR HOURLY POP
GRIDS REFLECT LOW POPS ACRS NRN FL...SOMEWHAT HIGHER ACROSS SRN GA
WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEW DEVELOPMENT WRAPPING AROUND UPPER
SYSTEM.
LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW
CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH
THE PASSING UPPER SYSTEM...BETTER COVERAGE NORTH THAN SOUTH. WITH
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT... GOING TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS.
.SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA ON
FRIDAY MORNING...CREATING NUMEROUS...MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LOCATIONS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF GAINESVILLE AND ST. AUGUSTINE. BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING AND
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER RAW DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S FROM THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY MAY BRING SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL...WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH THE MID 60S
LATE IN THE DAY.
SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD EARLY MARCH NIGHT. SOME PATCHES OF FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE NORTHERN
SUWANNEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS LOWS FALL INTO THE MID
30S. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S AT THE COAST AS NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL DURING THE
WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON WINDS TO BECOME
ONSHORE IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WHERE COLD SHELF WATERS WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO APPROACH 70 AT INLAND
LOCATIONS...WHICH IS NEAR CLIMO FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR NORTHEAST/NORTH CENTRAL FL. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS INLAND WILL FALL TO NEAR CLIMO...IN
THE 40S...WITH 50S AT THE COAST.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE DEMISE OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND A SUBSTANTIAL
WARMING TREND AREA-WIDE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW/MID 70S
INLAND...WITH UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SEA
BREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CREATE
OFFSHORE FLOW...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST. LOWS WILL ALSO CLIMO ABOVE CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 50S
EXPECTED REGION-WIDE. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
OUR ARE FROM THE WEST BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF REMAINING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT THAN THE 12Z
GFS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY...MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR WED AND WED EVENING...WITH ISOLATED POPS EXPECTED
FOR THURS AS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE POTENTIALLY IMPACTS OUR AREA.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO ON WED...AND WE MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES SUBSTANTIALLY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK IF THE MORE
AMPLIFIED 12Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL VERIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SLOT ALOFT SPREADING EAST OVER
GULF OF MEX TOWARD FL. PRECIPITATION BAND OVER FL PENINSULA WILL
SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME AREAS WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE PRECIP BAND. HOWEVER...LATEST
HRRR AND OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGEST IFR CIGS WILL BE DOMINANT ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HINT AT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS BY AROUND 14Z FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FROM MAYPORT
NORTHWARD...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RE-DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL
WATERS INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS PERSISTING IN THE 6-9 FOOT RANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK INTO FRIDAY DUE TO LONG PERIOD
SWELLS. BREAKERS OF AROUND 3 TO 5 FT ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 39 53 35 67 / 60 60 10 0
SSI 46 53 44 62 / 70 50 10 0
JAX 47 56 37 68 / 40 40 10 0
SGJ 52 59 45 64 / 30 30 10 0
GNV 47 60 37 69 / 30 30 10 0
OCF 50 63 40 70 / 30 20 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-NASSAU-
ST JOHNS.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
20 NM.
&&
$$
WOLF/NELSON/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
336 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A relatively weak wake low / pressure trough did manage to develop
late this morning behind the trailing edge of the stratiform rain
region. MSLP at TLH ASOS fell 2.2mb in an hour (15-16z), which was a
little lower in magnitude than what the hi-res models were showing.
It also occurred a bit earlier, prior to the 925-850mb wind field
strengthening. Therefore, the wind gusts across the area were a bit
weaker as well, peaking around 30 mph. The steadier rain has since
cleared out of the area, but the low stratus and some areas of
drizzle have persisted into the afternoon. Model forecast soundings
from the NAM and RAP both show a shallow layer of vertical motion
below 5000 ft through the early evening, so we included some drizzle
wording in the forecast. Eventually tonight, a second round of
steadier rain is expected to move through the area as DCVA becomes
maximized with the approach of the mid-level low center. Rainfall
should be fairly light, but models have been consistent in showing
this so we went with likely (~60%) PoPs.
.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
We will finally see an end to the cool and wet weather that has
been entrenched the past several days as we move into the weekend,
although we will remain below normal for another day with cool
northerly winds Friday. The main upper low will SHIFT OVER THE
AREA AND maintain low clouds and a chance/slgt chance PoPs to
start the day tomorrow, with low clouds likely to slowly erode
from west to east during the afternoon. High temp forecasts will
be tricky tomorrow depending on how early clouds can erode. Will
keep WRN AREAS WARMING UP A BIT MORE THAN AROUND I-75, but still
well below normal for this time of year, with highs around 60f.
Locales into central GA will be the slowest to shake the clouds
and highs will likely stay in the lower to mid 50s. Once this
weather system exits, a return to sun and near normal temperatures
will commence quickly with highs in the lower 70s Saturday.
.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
We will remain in a fairly active pattern for the next 7 days, with
normal temperatures and fairly low rain chances for Sunday into
early next week. However, another strong system will be looming as
we get into the mid week with rain chances once again increasing
by Wednesday. Thursday into Friday could see a return to below
normal temperatures behind the next strong cold front.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday]
We expect IFR or LIFR CIGS to persist through the night. Some
light rain will move back into the area overnight, but should not
significantly reduce visibility. Gradual improvement to MVFR CIGS
is expected after 12z, with stratus scattering out and VFR
developing in the afternoon.
&&
.Marine...
Modest offshore winds will sustain cautionary levels through
tonight and Friday morning, before conditions improve significantly by
the weekend. Clouds and rain showers chances will decrease during
the afternoon tomorrow, with light easterly winds and sunny skies
returning for Saturday.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days with
RH well above critical thresholds and recent wetting rains.
&&
.Hydrology...
Rainfall, mostly from this morning but additional showers will add
to that tonight, will average 1-2 inches across the area. These
totals are well below flash flood guidance, so flash flooding is
not expected. However, several points along area rivers may rise
to "action" stage by next week, meaning that some of our rivers
could be "primed" for flooding for the next round of soaking rain.
The next system to look out for comes mid-next week, although at
this time WPC QPF forecast is low, around 0.5-1.0", with higher
rainfall totals over the coastal waters.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 42 59 38 72 44 / 60 20 0 0 10
Panama City 43 60 48 68 52 / 60 20 0 0 10
Dothan 39 59 40 72 49 / 60 20 0 0 10
Albany 39 57 37 72 47 / 60 40 0 0 10
Valdosta 41 56 37 71 45 / 60 40 0 0 0
Cross City 45 60 37 72 44 / 50 30 0 0 0
Apalachicola 44 59 45 66 50 / 50 20 0 0 0
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for Coastal
Franklin.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Apalachee
Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...EVANS
LONG TERM...EVANS
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...EVANS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...WESTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
323 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT)...
HRRR HI-RES GUIDANCE DOING GENERALLY A GOOD JOB...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE
SLOW WITH EASTWARD MOTION...ON PRECIP BAND THAT MOVED ACROSS FL
PENINSULA AND SRN GA. PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE
AREA SINCE 1PM, AGAIN A BIT AHEAD OF HRRR GUIDANCE. OUR HOURLY POP
GRIDS REFLECT LOW POPS ACRS NRN FL...SOMEWHAT HIGHER ACROSS SRN GA
WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEW DEVELOPMENT WRAPPING AROUND UPPER
SYSTEM.
LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW
CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH
THE PASSING UPPER SYSTEM...BETTER COVERAGE NORTH THAN SOUTH. WITH
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT... GOING TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS.
.SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA ON
FRIDAY MORNING...CREATING NUMEROUS...MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LOCATIONS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF GAINESVILLE AND ST. AUGUSTINE. BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING AND
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER RAW DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S FROM THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY MAY BRING SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL...WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH THE MID 60S
LATE IN THE DAY.
SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A COLD EARLY MARCH NIGHT. SOME PATCHES OF FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE NORTHERN
SUWANNEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS LOWS FALL INTO THE MID
30S. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S AT THE COAST AS NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL DURING THE
WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON WINDS TO BECOME
ONSHORE IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WHERE COLD SHELF WATERS WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO APPROACH 70 AT INLAND
LOCATIONS...WHICH IS NEAR CLIMO FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR NORTHEAST/NORTH CENTRAL FL. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS INLAND WILL FALL TO NEAR CLIMO...IN
THE 40S...WITH 50S AT THE COAST.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE DEMISE OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND A SUBSTANTIAL
WARMING TREND AREA-WIDE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW/MID 70S
INLAND...WITH UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SEA
BREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CREATE
OFFSHORE FLOW...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST. LOWS WILL ALSO CLIMO ABOVE CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 50S
EXPECTED REGION-WIDE. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
OUR ARE FROM THE WEST BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF REMAINING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT THAN THE 12Z
GFS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY...MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR WED AND WED EVENING...WITH ISOLATED POPS EXPECTED
FOR THURS AS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE POTENTIALLY IMPACTS OUR AREA.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO ON WED...AND WE MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES SUBSTANTIALLY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK IF THE MORE
AMPLIFIED 12Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL VERIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SLOT ALOFT SPREADING EAST OVER
GULF OF MEX TOWARD FL. PRECIPITATION BAND OVER FL PENINSULA WILL
SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME AREAS WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE PRECIP BAND. HOWEVER...LATEST
HRRR AND OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGEST IFR CIGS WILL BE DOMINANT ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HINT AT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS BY AROUND 14Z FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FROM MAYPORT
NORTHWARD...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RE-DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL
WATERS INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS PERSISTING IN THE 6-9 FOOT RANGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK INTO FRIDAY DUE TO LONG PERIOD
SWELLS. BREAKERS OF AROUND 3 TO 5 FT ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 39 53 35 67 / 60 60 10 0
SSI 46 53 44 62 / 70 50 10 0
JAX 47 56 37 68 / 40 40 10 0
SGJ 52 59 45 64 / 30 30 10 0
GNV 47 60 37 69 / 30 30 10 0
OCF 50 63 40 70 / 30 20 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
20 NM.
&&
$$
WOLF/NELSON/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
115 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.AVIATION...
STRONG SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY ALREADY PASSES KAPF...EASTERN TERMINALS WILL BE
AFFECTED BY IT WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. +TSRA WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
40-50 KTS COULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THEREFORE TAFS WILL
BE AMENDED IF NECESSARY. AFTER 00Z...WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
WHILE WEAKENING TO AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014/
..ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FORMIDABLE LINE OF
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. LOTS
OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE GULF. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE
EAST AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS TAKE THIS LINE OF STORMS INTO THE
GULF COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON (HRRR SHOWING 1-2 PM), THEN EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING (HRRR SHOWING
4-7 PM). SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE GULF CONVECTION
OVERSPREADING CENTRAL FL AND NOW ENTERING INTO SW FLORIDA TO THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD SUNSHINE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...AND HRRR DEVELOPS CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE
ACROSS SE FL WITH MOVEMENT NORTH. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN MORE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NOW IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE...AND WILL BE WATCHING THOSE MORE DISCREET CELLS CLOSELY FOR
POSSIBLE ROTATION ONCE THEY DEVELOP.
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS EAST COAST THROUGH 1
PM WITH POTENTIAL FOR THOSE DISCREET CELLS DEVELOPING, THEN
INCREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. WIND THREAT IS HIGHER THAN A TORNADO
THREAT GIVEN VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH TIME TODAY, BUT NEED TO
WATCH ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC COAST FOR A POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LESSER IMPACTS
INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE (WITH CELLS
AHEAD OF MAIN LINE) ALONG WITH ISOLATED STREET FLOODING. A
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AHEAD. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014/
AVIATION...
A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS A THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE VFR IS CURRENTLY FORECAST, CONDITIONS
MAY DROP TO IFR UNDER ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE
FRONT.
AVIATION...BNB/SI
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE LIGHTNING COUNT WITHIN THESE STORMS
HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY INTERACT
WITH A LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT H5 TROUGH NOW
ENTERING THE EXTREME NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IMPULSE COMBINED
WITH A LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT TO
KEEP THESE STORMS GOING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THEY
SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING UNDER A MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BUT WITH THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
BY MIDDAY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AS IT DOES...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST FURTHER INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT THE SEVERITY REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION.
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR THAT WILL FACILITATE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL
BRING THE LOW INTO THE PENINSULA SOMEWHERE AROUND THE BIG BEND
AREA SOUTH TO TAMPA AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE EARLY CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS COULD ALSO ALLOW MODEST
SURFACE HEATING TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
CLOUD COVER...THUS INCREASING INSTABILITY WHILE REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD CIRRUS DECK
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
POSSIBLY A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
DECENT HEATING AND BETTER THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS THAN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT CAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4C TO -5C.
H5 TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROGGED AROUND -10C TO -12C WHICH WITH
THE GIVEN INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT.
ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. MODEL SOUNDING DEPICTIONS OF 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES HAVE
INCREASED AND NOW RANGE FROM AROUND 100 TO 150 M2/S2 WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO FACILITATE AN INCREASE IN
0-1 KM SHEAR. ALL IN ALL...THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.
BY EARLY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TREKKING
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN FURTHER AS THE PARENT H5 TROUGH BECOMES MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT. BY THIS TIME...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
DRAGGING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY IT. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MORE LINEAR IN
NATURE AND COULD POSE AN ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITHIN STRONGER
LINE SEGMENTS. THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THEY BECOME MORE DISCONNECTED FROM BETTER DYNAMICS TO THE
NORTH AND WITH HEATING LOSS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA FOR GOOD BY FRIDAY
MORNING GIVING WAY TO MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PLEASANT AND
MILD WEEKEND FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A NW-N WIND WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND VEER TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SEAS ALSO SUBSIDING LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 69 81 56 77 / 50 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 81 58 77 / 50 20 0 0
MIAMI 71 81 59 78 / 60 20 0 0
NAPLES 65 76 54 76 / 40 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...17/ERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
338 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXISTS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CREATE
AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT OVER RESIDUAL
SNOWPACK. WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP AS WELL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE 4 KM WRF MODEL AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST. A
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS WHICH INDICATE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THEREFORE MIXING AS OPPOSED
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THAT WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING. WE`VE
INSERTED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT, SINCE A LARGE
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKER ON
MUCH FRIDAY MORNING THAN FOG DID THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FASTER AS WELL, REACHING AROUND 60 DEGREES SOUTH AND EAST OF
WICHITA, AND COOLER UPPER 40S OR LOW 50S FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BETWEEN FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST TO IMPACT THE AREA IS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING INITIAL A CHANCE OF RAIN, RAIN AND
SNOW BEFORE A COMPLETE PHASE CHANCE LOOKS REASONABLE EARLY SATURDAY.
THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS LOW SNOW RATIOS FOR THE ENTIRETY OF
THE PRECIPITATION EPISODE. FOLLOWING THE WAVE ON SATURDAY, A SLOW
WARMUP ON SUNDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MARKED WARMUP APPEARS
LIKELY FOR VERY EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND
WIDESPREAD 60`S ON MONDAY. FAR LESS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EXISTS AT THIS TIME WITH THE NEXT WAVE/FRONTAL PASSAGE MOST
LIKELY CENTERED AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS PRODUCES A MUCH DRIER
SOLUTION THAN THE WET ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
STRATUS WILL THIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME SCATTERED IN
MOST LOCATIONS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STEEPENS. AS RADIATIONAL
COOLING DEVELOPS TONIGHT, MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGLY TOWARD
ANOTHER OVERNIGHT WITH IFR OR LOWER CATEGORY STRATUS WITH VLIFR
VISIBILITIES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS A COLD SURFACE LAYER WHICH TENDS TO
SUPPORT ADVECTION FOG.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 33 58 30 40 / 0 10 50 60
HUTCHINSON 32 54 28 41 / 0 10 40 50
NEWTON 33 55 28 40 / 0 10 40 50
ELDORADO 34 58 30 40 / 0 10 50 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 34 60 32 40 / 0 10 60 60
RUSSELL 32 49 25 45 / 0 10 40 40
GREAT BEND 32 51 26 45 / 0 10 40 40
SALINA 33 50 26 44 / 0 10 40 40
MCPHERSON 32 53 27 42 / 0 10 40 40
COFFEYVILLE 31 60 35 40 / 0 10 60 60
CHANUTE 32 60 31 41 / 0 10 50 60
IOLA 33 59 31 41 / 0 10 50 50
PARSONS-KPPF 31 60 33 40 / 0 10 60 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DDC
LONG TERM...DDC
AVIATION...DDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
228 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
...Update to long term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
The dense fog across at least one half of my eastern zones
dissipated and moved east by late this morning. This fog and low
ceilings slowed down the surface heating, and thus I lowered maximum
temperatures in my eastern tier of zones for this afternoon, as I
saw ICT did also. Winds have been increasing in the post-fog
environment, especially in the west zones near the Colorado border.
Under clear skies tonight and with winds subsiding to around 10
to 11 knots, the HRRR and RUC models develop some fog in about our
eastern 1/3rd of our forecast areas tonight. After collaboration
with ICT (here, in backup mode), I have decided to put patchy fog
(not dense) in our eastern zones. I will brief the evening shift
to pass on to the mid shift to monitor the fog, for any possible
dense development. For now, the models are pointing further east
than my Stafford to Barber eastern border for any dense fog
potential. As for low temperatures, the steady southerly flow
will keep minimum temperatures up from last night. Minimums should
range from the middle 30s in the north and east sections, east of
a line from Dighton to Coldwater, and only to the lower 40s in the
Stanton County to Seward County.
Friday will start mostly clear, but become mostly cloudy by early afternoon.
There is an upper level trough approaching from the west, and for
now looks like it will delay until the Fri Nt period as far as
precip goes. A cold front will plunge south on Friday, switching
morning southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph to north at 15 to 25 mph
and gusty by early afternoon Friday. The clouds will follow the
cold front and skies should become cloudy by early afternoon also.
This will help hold down maximum temperatures. Friday should be
colder than today for most locations, with highs ranging from
around 50F in the Hays area, to the the lower to middle 60s in the
southern Meade and Ashland areas.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A few forecast concerns that need to be addressed. The first was to
tweak precipitation types Friday night. Both GFS and NAM are warmer
with the thermo profile than compared to ECMWF. From a meteorological
conceptual model, applied again the top down approach which suggests
that precip will start as rain and then transition to snow by Saturday
morning. Some drizzle is possible across the northern zones Friday evening
for a brief period before the entire profile becomes completely saturated.
Snowfall amounts look to be sub-advisory and in the 0.50-1.5" range.
Right now GFS/NAM/WRF are starting to agree on an area south of the
Arkansas river for seeing the best shot at accumulating snowfall. This
in association with better isentropic lift. Anyway, if the EC verifies,
than my maximums are too high for Saturday. This model is the outlier
compared to the GFS/NAM/GEM, so will bias towards these other solutions
for now versus the outlier.
A very nice warm up is expected Sunday and particularly Monday. Here
a downslope plume and low level warm air advection will lead to very
nice temperatures with 60s/70sF.
A cold front moves through Tuesday evening. Cold air advection lags
a bit and the EC solution continues to be the outlier. Did not stray
too much from the weighted blend solution for pops. Fixed precipitation
type as it seems dubious to get snow with sfc temperatures in the 50s.
Even the EC has model sfc temperatures in the upper 30sF so changed
the snow ptype and made more of a rain/snow event for a buffer. Of
course, synoptic and mesoscale details are very uncertain at this point
but feel it is appropriate to have a blend of precipitation types rather
than to commit to one precipitation type given the large uncertainty
in the evolution and verification of the thermo profile and lift.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
The first 6 to 8 hours, flight conditions will be VFR. KHYS will
quickly improve to p6sm on vsby by 20Z. Skies will clear and winds
will increase into the breezy category. After sundown, winds will
fall off fast and become southeast at around 09 to 10 kt. This
could lead to some fog development, especially after 08z. How
dense is the big question, and how far east will any fog develop.
I decided to go with 3sm to tempo down to 1sm.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 35 58 28 44 / 0 10 60 20
GCK 37 56 28 49 / 0 20 50 10
EHA 42 62 31 45 / 0 20 60 10
LBL 40 63 30 44 / 0 20 60 20
HYS 33 51 26 46 / 0 20 40 10
P28 33 60 29 43 / 0 10 60 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1233 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
...Updated for the short term forecast...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
The dense fog across at least one half of my eastern zones
dissipated and moved east by late this morning. This fog and low
ceilings slowed down the surface heating, and thus I lowered maximum
temperatures in my eastern tier of zones for this afternoon, as I
saw ICT did also. Winds have been increasing in the post-fog
environment, especially in the west zones near the Colorado border.
Under clear skies tonight and with winds subsiding to around 10
to 11 knots, the HRRR and RUC models develop some fog in about our
eastern 1/3rd of our forecast areas tonight. After collaboration
with ICT (here, in backup mode), I have decided to put patchy fog
(not dense) in our eastern zones. I will brief the evening shift
to pass on to the mid shift to monitor the fog, for any possible
dense development. For now, the models are pointing further east
than my Stafford to Barber eastern border for any dense fog
potential. As for low temperatures, the steady southerly flow
will keep minimum temperatures up from last night. Minimums should
range from the middle 30s in the north and east sections, east of
a line from Dighton to Coldwater, and only to the lower 40s in the
Stanton County to Seward County.
Friday will start mostly clear, but become mostly cloudy by early afternoon.
There is an upper level trough approaching from the west, and for
now looks like it will delay until the Fri Nt period as far as
precip goes. A cold front will plunge south on Friday, switching
morning southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph to north at 15 to 25 mph
and gusty by early afternoon Friday. The clouds will follow the
cold front and skies should become cloudy by early afternoon also.
This will help hold down maximum temperatures. Friday should be
colder than today for most locations, with highs ranging from
around 50F in the Hays area, to the the lower to middle 60s in the
southern Meade and Ashland areas.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Two storm systems will impact the Central Plains providing
precipitation opportunities across portions of the southwestern
Kansas region. The first storm system will be during the Friday
Night/Saturday time frame. We have cut back on the POPs for the
Friday (day) period in favor of a slower evolving 500-700mb trough
axis/zone of frontogenesis per the latest GFS/ECMWF. This event will
most likely be entirely in the form of snow as the thermodynamic
profile should fall entirely below zero prior to onset of
accumulating precipitation. The rather positively tilted nature of
the overall trough along with the translational speed of the trough
will not support a heavy precipitation event. We are looking at an
event supporting one to perhaps two inches of snow (maybe isolated
higher amounts toward the Colorado border) which is in line with the
ECMWF model.
The next storm system will develop across the Rockies mid next week.
While the synoptic and all-important subsynoptic aspects of the
mid-week storm system are still rather unclear, the ECMWF and GFS
models do point at the potential for a slightly higher impact event.
Timing is also still a huge question as the GFS and ECMWF differ
fairly significantly in the onset, duration, and ending of the
mid-week storm. It looks like this storm will also be mostly in the
form of snow as it stands now, with significant low level cold
advection occurring before the important 700mb zone of frontogenesis
moves across southwestern Kansas.
In between these storms, Sunday and Monday look to be rather mild
with mid level westerly downslope momentum prevailing. Allblend
guidance of highs 62 Sunday and 71 Monday (Dodge City) look good
enough and no change was necessary off the Allblend guidance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
The first 6 to 8 hours, flight conditions will be VFR. KHYS will
quickly improve to p6sm on vsby by 20Z. Skies will clear and winds
will increase into the breezy category. After sundown, winds will
fall off fast and become southeast at around 09 to 10 kt. This
could lead to some fog development, especially after 08z. How
dense is the big question, and how far east will any fog develop.
I decided to go with 3sm to tempo down to 1sm.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 35 58 27 41 / 0 10 50 40
GCK 37 56 27 47 / 0 20 40 40
EHA 42 62 30 46 / 0 20 50 50
LBL 40 63 29 43 / 0 20 50 50
HYS 33 51 26 43 / 0 20 40 30
P28 33 60 30 37 / 0 10 50 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1133 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Latest low cloud enhanced satellite loop shows stratus slowly
building northwest across north central Kansas along and just west
of the ridge axis. Further east low clouds were breaking up and also
reforming in spots. Areas where skies cleared temperatures dropped
into the teens while near steady temperatures in the mid and upper
20s continued under the cloud cover. RAP soundings suggest that
clouds will linger through mid afternoon out west while the 06Z NAM
suggest around mid day. Expect clouds to slowly dissipate after 17Z
with mostly sunny skies by 21Z. Increasing southerly winds and 850
mb temps warming into the 6 to 10C will see highs in the mid 40s far
northeast to the lower 50s in north central Kansas. Also patchy fog
will continue through mid morning and may become dense in a few
areas.
Warm advection continues through the night across the CWA with winds
south to southwest. Shortwave trough moving across southern Canada
and the Northern Plains will push a frontal boundary southeast. The
front should extend from northeast Nebraska to a low over the
Oklahoma Panhandle by 12Z Friday. Lows tonight will fall back into
the lower 30s with partly cloudy skies in the north and mostly clear
skies in the south half of the CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
By Friday morning, a mid-level trough will be in place over the
Northern Plains stretching toward the central Rockies. Models show
this trough deepening a bit as it advances eastward toward the
Central Plains Friday into Saturday. This deepening trough will help
to push a cold front southward into the area Friday afternoon.
Models seem to be trending a bit faster with bringing this cold
front into far north central Kansas by around 18z Friday and having
it progress southeast of the area by early to mid evening. With this
timing of the frontal passage, expect southerly winds to prevail
through much of the day across east central Kansas with a shift to
the north behind the front across northern Kansas during the
afternoon hours. As a result, could see a spread in high
temperatures for Friday, ranging from the lower 50s near the
Kansas/Nebraska border to the upper 50s and possibly even near 60
degrees over east central Kansas.
Models show modest low to mid-level frontogenesis developing behind
the front, so anticipate the development of some post-frontal
precipitation. This light precipitation may start as early as late
afternoon across far north central Kansas, but the better lift looks
to move through during the evening and overnight hours. There are
still model discrepancies with regards to how much QPF we can expect
with this system. The ECMWF continues to bring the most QPF to the
area while the GFS and NAM keep lower QPF amounts. There is also
still some uncertainty with just how quickly this precipitation will
exit southeast of the area, with the NAM being the fastest in having
precipitation exit the area by 12z Saturday while the GFS/ECMWF/GEM
keep some light precipitation lingering across east central Kansas
through much of the day on Saturday. With this uncertainty in the
timing and amount of precipitation over the area, have kept PoPs
less than 50 percent Friday night into Saturday. As for
precipitation type, with the mild temperatures during the day on
Friday, precipitation will likely start off as rain with this
system. Model soundings are in fairly good agreement in showing the
temperature profiles in the low to mid-levels of the atmosphere
cooling off as surface temperatures drop during the evening hours,
so do not see a warm nose present in these soundings as temperatures
drop below freezing. As a result, as temperatures cool into the mid/upper
20s by Saturday morning, expect any light precipitation to
transition from rain over to snow. If a wintry mix were to occur, it
should be very short-lived. With the frontogenetical forcing
shifting east of the area by Saturday morning, any lingering
precipitation during the day on Saturday looks to be supported by
some isentropic lift within the 295k-310k layer. High temperatures
for Saturday look to reach into the mid/upper 30s to low 40s, so
could see precipitation transitioning from snow back over to rain
during the late morning and afternoon hours with any lingering light
precipitation. Precipitation amounts with this system look to be
light, with snow accumulations likely around one inch or less.
This mid-level trough will progress east of the area on Sunday with
surface high pressure moving in behind this system Saturday night
and progressing into the southeastern U.S. by Sunday. As a result,
expect southwesterly surface flow on Sunday which will aid in decent
waa and temperatures moderating back into the mid/upper 50s and
possibly even low 60s across north central Kansas as models show a
thermal ridge building in across western Kansas. Monday continues to
look to be the warmest day in the forecast as the steady southwesterly
flow further supports waa through the day. Have trended a few
degrees warmer with highs in the mid/upper 60s and possibly even
into the lower 70s over north central Kansas as that well-pronounced
thermal ridge remains in place just west of the area.
Models show another cold front tracking over the area sometime
Monday night into Tuesday with some modest post-frontal lift
present. GFS/ECMWF both pick up on the potential for some
precipitation, especially across northern and far northeast Kansas
Tuesday into Wednesday, however there is still a great deal of
uncertainty with the timing and tracking of this system so only have
slight to low-end chance PoPs in for that period. Expect a bit of a
downward trend with temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with a
northerly surface flow in place, resulting in highs dropping back into
the 40s by Wednesday. While most of this precipitation looks to stay
in the form of rain, low temperatures Tuesday night may drop into
the low/mid 30s so cannot rule out a mix of rain/snow overnight into
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Lack of strong mixing in the boundary layer has held on to the
fog/stratus at KMHK through the afternoon as the IFR stratus
gradually scatters out after 22Z. Edge of stratus deck should stay
west of KTOP/KFOE through the afternoon period. Latest sounding
profilers from short term guidance suggests another fog and/or status
event to set up early Friday morning. Models vary on lowest
visibility however the lighter winds at KMHK may result in IFR and
LIFR conditions after 07Z. Left IFR stratus at KTOP/KFOE after 07Z
as boundary layer remains more mixed. The stratus and fog should
linger once again through at least mid morning Friday.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Bowen
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TOPEKA KS
1048 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Made changes to the diurnal temperature trend for this afternoon
as latest satellite observations show widespread fog lingering
across north central and northeast Kansas. Latest obs at 10 AM indicate
temperatures lingering in the upper 20s to mid 30s. RAP and HRRR
profilers suggest as southerly winds increase after 12 PM, the fog
should begin to lift. However, the cooler temps this morning have
resulted in lowering high temperatures across the area, especially
for north central Kansas. Overall readings range from the low 50s
in east central Kansas, to the lower and middle 40s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Latest low cloud enhanced satellite loop shows stratus slowly
building northwest across north central Kansas along and just west
of the ridge axis. Further east low clouds were breaking up and also
reforming in spots. Areas where skies cleared temperatures dropped
into the teens while near steady temperatures in the mid and upper
20s continued under the cloud cover. RAP soundings suggest that
clouds will linger through mid afternoon out west while the 06Z NAM
suggest around mid day. Expect clouds to slowly dissipate after 17Z
with mostly sunny skies by 21Z. Increasing southerly winds and 850
mb temps warming into the 6 to 10C will see highs in the mid 40s far
northeast to the lower 50s in north central Kansas. Also patchy fog
will continue through mid morning and may become dense in a few
areas.
Warm advection continues through the night across the CWA with winds
south to southwest. Shortwave trough moving across southern Canada
and the Northern Plains will push a frontal boundary southeast. The
front should extend from northeast Nebraska to a low over the
Oklahoma Panhandle by 12Z Friday. Lows tonight will fall back into
the lower 30s with partly cloudy skies in the north and mostly clear
skies in the south half of the CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
By Friday morning, a mid-level trough will be in place over the
Northern Plains stretching toward the central Rockies. Models show
this trough deepening a bit as it advances eastward toward the
Central Plains Friday into Saturday. This deepening trough will help
to push a cold front southward into the area Friday afternoon.
Models seem to be trending a bit faster with bringing this cold
front into far north central Kansas by around 18z Friday and having
it progress southeast of the area by early to mid evening. With this
timing of the frontal passage, expect southerly winds to prevail
through much of the day across east central Kansas with a shift to
the north behind the front across northern Kansas during the
afternoon hours. As a result, could see a spread in high
temperatures for Friday, ranging from the lower 50s near the
Kansas/Nebraska border to the upper 50s and possibly even near 60
degrees over east central Kansas.
Models show modest low to mid-level frontogenesis developing behind
the front, so anticipate the development of some post-frontal
precipitation. This light precipitation may start as early as late
afternoon across far north central Kansas, but the better lift looks
to move through during the evening and overnight hours. There are
still model discrepancies with regards to how much QPF we can expect
with this system. The ECMWF continues to bring the most QPF to the
area while the GFS and NAM keep lower QPF amounts. There is also
still some uncertainty with just how quickly this precipitation will
exit southeast of the area, with the NAM being the fastest in having
precipitation exit the area by 12z Saturday while the GFS/ECMWF/GEM
keep some light precipitation lingering across east central Kansas
through much of the day on Saturday. With this uncertainty in the
timing and amount of precipitation over the area, have kept PoPs
less than 50 percent Friday night into Saturday. As for
precipitation type, with the mild temperatures during the day on
Friday, precipitation will likely start off as rain with this
system. Model soundings are in fairly good agreement in showing the
temperature profiles in the low to mid-levels of the atmosphere
cooling off as surface temperatures drop during the evening hours,
so do not see a warm nose present in these soundings as temperatures
drop below freezing. As a result, as temperatures cool into the mid/upper
20s by Saturday morning, expect any light precipitation to
transition from rain over to snow. If a wintry mix were to occur, it
should be very short-lived. With the frontogenetical forcing
shifting east of the area by Saturday morning, any lingering
precipitation during the day on Saturday looks to be supported by
some isentropic lift within the 295k-310k layer. High temperatures
for Saturday look to reach into the mid/upper 30s to low 40s, so
could see precipitation transitioning from snow back over to rain
during the late morning and afternoon hours with any lingering light
precipitation. Precipitation amounts with this system look to be
light, with snow accumulations likely around one inch or less.
This mid-level trough will progress east of the area on Sunday with
surface high pressure moving in behind this system Saturday night
and progressing into the southeastern U.S. by Sunday. As a result,
expect southwesterly surface flow on Sunday which will aid in decent
waa and temperatures moderating back into the mid/upper 50s and
possibly even low 60s across north central Kansas as models show a
thermal ridge building in across western Kansas. Monday continues to
look to be the warmest day in the forecast as the steady southwesterly
flow further supports waa through the day. Have trended a few
degrees warmer with highs in the mid/upper 60s and possibly even
into the lower 70s over north central Kansas as that well-pronounced
thermal ridge remains in place just west of the area.
Models show another cold front tracking over the area sometime
Monday night into Tuesday with some modest post-frontal lift
present. GFS/ECMWF both pick up on the potential for some
precipitation, especially across northern and far northeast Kansas
Tuesday into Wednesday, however there is still a great deal of
uncertainty with the timing and tracking of this system so only have
slight to low-end chance PoPs in for that period. Expect a bit of a
downward trend with temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with a
northerly surface flow in place, resulting in highs dropping back into
the 40s by Wednesday. While most of this precipitation looks to stay
in the form of rain, low temperatures Tuesday night may drop into
the low/mid 30s so cannot rule out a mix of rain/snow overnight into
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
Stratus is the main concern for the short term with the terminals
this morning. LIFR stratus cigs lay just west of TOP and FOE, but
are occurring at MHK. Latest trends on satellite show stratus
moving off slowly west or holding west of TOP and FOE. IFR/MVFR
vsbys will continue through 15Z with some LIFR vsbys possible.
Forecast soundings from the RAP suggest that stratus will begin to
breakup in the 15Z-18Z time frame, with VFR expected for the rest
of the period. Calm winds will become southeast near 8 kts, then
south after 14Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Bowen
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1140 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME.
DRY SLOT IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY KGPT NOT
REPORTING LOW CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. MOST CEILINGS IN THE
FL005-FL012 RANGE. PATCHES OF -RA/-DZ ARE REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS 1 TO 2 SM IN AREAS. BULK OF PRECIPITATION
AND LOW VISIBILITIES SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD NEAR 00Z. MOST AREAS
WILL HOLD ONTO IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR
ANTICIPATED BY 15Z ON FRIDAY. 35
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...
A 1012MB SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WAS ACCOMPANIED
BY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 200 MILES SE OF MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER LARGE DIVERGENCE STRUCTURE ALOFT.
MEANWHILE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LOUISIANA MOVING EASTWARD WITH
YET ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE BASE OF TROUGH
OVER NE TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE LOCAL AREA WAS CURRENTLY IN A
RELATIVE DRY SLOT BETWEEN SYSTEMS THAT SHOULD FILL DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS UNDER INCREASING DYNAMICS AND OMEGA BY 18Z. GFS
TIME-HEIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SHARP INFLUENCES FROM COLD
POOL TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT BUT STILL MAINTAIN A
PRECIPITATION LOADED WARMER PSEUDO PROFILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO
PROVIDE SHOWERS INTERSPERSED WITHIN STRATIFORM RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND WRF 3KM LOCAL SCALE MODELS AGREE ON ONSET
OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AROUND 18Z AS COLD POOL PASSES
OVERHEAD FROM WEST-TO-EAST. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE HOURLY
POPS WITH GENERALLY 20 PERCENT LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING
INCREMENTING UPWARDS TO 70 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN
WALKING DOWN AGAIN THIS EVENING. DESPITE DYNAMIC COOLING
ALOFT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR A SLOW OR STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND TODAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPS. AFTER THIS FEATURE WORKS OUT OF
THE AREA TODAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
FEATURE A WARMING TREND UNDER ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
LONG TERM...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH SHORT WAVELENGTH NATURE OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GREATER DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE WHETHER TO
SYNC THE FLOW OR MAINTAIN DISCONTINUOUS SPACING OF THE INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES BOTH IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES. THE ECMWF
INDICATES A LARGE ANOMALY LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH
FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OVER WESTERN MEXICO VIA A REX BLOCK
PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT THEN PROGRESSES EAST WHILE
MAINTAINING CONNECTIVITY WITH NORTHERN BRANCH CYCLONE...WITH YET
THE NEXT KICKER ON ITS HEALS IN THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THE
SURFACE REFLECTION LOW REMAINS RATHER WEAKLY INDICATED PER ECMWF.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS SHOWS A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERN BRANCH CYCLONE
ALOFT THAT INDUCES A 1006MB BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH
CONNECTION TO THE LAGGING NORTHERN SYSTEM OVER TEXAS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALL THAT SAID...THE BULK OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT CONSIDERATIONS OVER
LAND AREAS FOR TUESDAY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF ANY GULF LOW THAT DOES
FORM AND INTEGRITY OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...WHICH SHOULD BE
PRETTY ROBUST BY EITHER MODEL`S SCENARIO. THE ECMWF MAY BE
SLIGHTLY MORE PROBLEMATIC FOR LAND AREAS GIVEN COLD POOL PASSAGE
THAT MAY DESTABILIZE COLUMN FOR SOME SMALL HAIL CONSIDERATIONS. AT
THIS TIME...LEANING TOWARDS GFS BUT STILL RESERVING SOME CAUTIOUS
CONFIDENCE ON ANY EXPECTED OUTCOMES. NEXT BIG DIFFERENCE COMES ON
ENSUING SYSTEM. BOTH SHOW CONSIDERABLE COOLING FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BUT THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER FREEZE OR AT LEAST
KILLING FROST SITUATION FROM THE 14TH. GIVEN THE TENDENCIES OF
THIS COLD WINTER...WOULD NOT THINK TOO FAR-FETCHED DESPITE THE
LATENESS OF SUCH COLD AIR. IT WOULD BE RARE IN THAT THE LAST
TIME...AND IN SOME CASES THE ONLY TIME... THIS DATE SAW BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WAS MARCH 14TH 1993 WHEN MOST OF THE DAILY
RECORDS WERE SET ACROSS THE AREA THAT DAY. 24/RR
AVIATION...
MOST TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VFR CEILINGS BUT THEY ARE
RIGHT AT 3000 FEET. A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS
SHOULD BRING LOWER CLOUDS BACK TO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH SHOWERS. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MVFR DECKS
AND -RA. NOT THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SO JUST GOING
WITH SHRA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO INCREASE FROM KHUM TO MSY/NEW AND ASD
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES FROM
DEEPENING SFC LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT BUT LOW CLOUDS LIKELY STILL STICKING AROUND.
MARINE...
MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE NOW THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA HAS TIGHTENED AND CAUSED WINDS TO
INCREASE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN HALF HAS CAUSED EVEN MORE ENHANCEMENT OF
WINDS. IT SEEMS TO MAKE MORE SENSE TO ISSUE A LONG TERM SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HANDLE THE 20-25 KNOT WINDS RATHER THAN A 3 HR
LONG SCA SINCE THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED WINDS WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 15 TO
20 KNOT RANGE MOST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS THE LOW
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GULF. THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY FADE FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LEND TO A WEAK WIND FIELD AND LITTLE SEA/WAVE ACTION.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 53 39 60 43 / 80 20 10 10
BTR 56 39 60 43 / 70 10 10 10
ASD 64 42 58 44 / 60 30 10 10
MSY 61 45 57 47 / 40 20 10 10
GPT 62 44 58 47 / 70 40 10 10
PQL 61 41 60 42 / 70 50 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1201 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING. WAVE THAT BROUGHT A SMALL
AMOUNT OF PRECIP TO THE BORDERLANDS OVERNIGHT AS DEPICTED ON
SATELLITE AND REGIONAL AND CANADIAN RADARS SHOW IT HAS MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. WE ARE LEFT WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FLURRIES/FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM WHERE
IT IS NOW IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SO...HAVE REDUCED POPS AND
REDUCED MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP
COVERAGE AND TYPE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WE FOLLOWED A BLEND...BUT
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF THAN THE GFS. RADAR SHOWED ECHOES
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KINL/KCDD AT TIMES. MORE RETURNS WERE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RETURNS
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA REVEAL SOME
FREEZING RAIN/MIXED PRECIP. WE CONFINED MENTION OF PRECIP TO OUR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA ZONES FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RES MODELS. A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A
HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE SNOW/FREEZING
PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY. STRATUS CLOUDS WERE
SURGING NORTH THIS MORNING AND THE RAP SHOWS THEY SHOULD COVER
MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY AND
WE HAVE HIGHS FROM THE MID TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH AS WELL. WE HAVE A MENTION OF
PRECIP FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE HAVING HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE FAR NORTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...AND
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL FAR SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE ISSUES
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE COOLER
ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT MORE OF A MIX. AT THIS TIME...WE CONTINUED A
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE
BORDERLAND SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW. COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO
NOT WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
AND CONSIDER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DIP TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
TWENTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE
COLD FRONT/LOW MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF...WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT. ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
MID TWENTIES TOWARD INTERNATIONAL FALLS...AND THE MID THIRTIES OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A VERY ACTIVE NRN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST CHALLENGING FOR SEVERAL REASONS. CONFIDENCE WILL BE HIGHEST
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS INITIAL MID LVL TROF MOVES EAST. A
RELATIVELY QUIET AND COLD SATURDAY IS EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MDLS AGREE THAT AT MID LVLS A SLIGHTLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL RESIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
SRN ALBERTA WITH A BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT FROM ALBERTA INTO THE LOWER
GT LAKES. ITS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE MDLS SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL
SFC LOWS WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE SE. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
SPEED OF THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIBBONS MAKES
THE FCST TEMPS/PTYPES/POPS LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT ENOUGH
WARM AIR IS PULLED INTO THE CWA UNDER THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
THAT ZL AND PERHAPS EVEN RAIN MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER SRN CWA
WHERE BDRY LYR WARMING HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. THIS MAY OCCUR AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY BUT WILL LEAVE SNOW IN FCST FOR NOW. EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY MONDAY AS MAX TEMPS IN SRN CWA MAY BE CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER IF LATEST EC/GEM ARE CORRECT. WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIP
FOCUSED OVER THE NRN TIER OF MN ZONES CLOSER TO POTENTIAL
CONVERGENCE/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW. MDLS AGREE
THAT TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO COLDER AIR WITH MAX TEMPS
LOWERING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM MONDAYS VALUES. GFS/EC AGREE
THAT A MID LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS MIDWEEK. HOWEVER
THE RESULTING DOWNSTREAM TROFS ARE NOT IN SYNC WHICH PROMOTES AN
INCREASING DIFFERENCE IN PLACEMENT OF LOW LVL THERMAL TROUGH. GFS IS
MUCH COLDER THAN EC AT THIS POINT..ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS TREND TEMPS
DOWNWARD TO CLIMO OR BELOW CLIMO AFTER THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF
EARLY WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
THE NORTHLAND IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS OF MIDDAY..WITH PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTH HAVING MOVED EAST OF KINL/KHIB. NEXT APPROACHING
WAVE IS RESULTING IN PRESSURE FALLS AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT..WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30KT AT TIMES INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. VSBY REDUCTION AT KBRD IS LIKELY DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN SOME FORM THRU THIS
AFTERNOON.
APPROACHING WAVE AND CONTINUED SUSTAINED ASCENT SHOULD EVENTUALLY
RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS THIS EVENING..WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY KINL AND
KHIB. FARTHER SOUTH..LIGHT FZDZ/SN IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGT/FRI
MORNING UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NW
BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS..LATEST AT
KHYR..ALONG WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR
RANGE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 23 31 4 / 20 50 20 10
INL 30 19 25 -5 / 60 80 20 10
BRD 33 25 29 -1 / 10 20 10 0
HYR 34 23 35 6 / 10 40 30 10
ASX 33 23 35 9 / 10 50 30 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1110 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING. WAVE THAT BROUGHT A SMALL
AMOUNT OF PRECIP TO THE BORDERLANDS OVERNIGHT AS DEPICTED ON
SATELLITE AND REGIONAL AND CANADIAN RADARS SHOW IT HAS MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. WE ARE LEFT WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FLURRIES/FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM WHERE
IT IS NOW IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SO...HAVE REDUCED POPS AND
REDUCED MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP
COVERAGE AND TYPE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WE FOLLOWED A BLEND...BUT
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF THAN THE GFS. RADAR SHOWED ECHOES
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
KINL/KCDD AT TIMES. MORE RETURNS WERE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RETURNS
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA REVEAL SOME
FREEZING RAIN/MIXED PRECIP. WE CONFINED MENTION OF PRECIP TO OUR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA ZONES FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RES MODELS. A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A
HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE SNOW/FREEZING
PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY. STRATUS CLOUDS WERE
SURGING NORTH THIS MORNING AND THE RAP SHOWS THEY SHOULD COVER
MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY AND
WE HAVE HIGHS FROM THE MID TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH AS WELL. WE HAVE A MENTION OF
PRECIP FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE HAVING HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE FAR NORTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...AND
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL FAR SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE ISSUES
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE COOLER
ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT MORE OF A MIX. AT THIS TIME...WE CONTINUED A
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE
BORDERLAND SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW. COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO
NOT WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
AND CONSIDER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DIP TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
TWENTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE
COLD FRONT/LOW MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF...WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT. ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
MID TWENTIES TOWARD INTERNATIONAL FALLS...AND THE MID THIRTIES OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A VERY ACTIVE NRN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST CHALLENGING FOR SEVERAL REASONS. CONFIDENCE WILL BE HIGHEST
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS INITIAL MID LVL TROF MOVES EAST. A
RELATIVELY QUIET AND COLD SATURDAY IS EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MDLS AGREE THAT AT MID LVLS A SLIGHTLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL RESIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
SRN ALBERTA WITH A BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT FROM ALBERTA INTO THE LOWER
GT LAKES. ITS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE MDLS SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL
SFC LOWS WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE SE. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
SPEED OF THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIBBONS MAKES
THE FCST TEMPS/PTYPES/POPS LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT ENOUGH
WARM AIR IS PULLED INTO THE CWA UNDER THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
THAT ZL AND PERHAPS EVEN RAIN MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER SRN CWA
WHERE BDRY LYR WARMING HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. THIS MAY OCCUR AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY BUT WILL LEAVE SNOW IN FCST FOR NOW. EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY MONDAY AS MAX TEMPS IN SRN CWA MAY BE CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER IF LATEST EC/GEM ARE CORRECT. WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIP
FOCUSED OVER THE NRN TIER OF MN ZONES CLOSER TO POTENTIAL
CONVERGENCE/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW. MDLS AGREE
THAT TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO COLDER AIR WITH MAX TEMPS
LOWERING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM MONDAYS VALUES. GFS/EC AGREE
THAT A MID LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS MIDWEEK. HOWEVER
THE RESULTING DOWNSTREAM TROFS ARE NOT IN SYNC WHICH PROMOTES AN
INCREASING DIFFERENCE IN PLACEMENT OF LOW LVL THERMAL TROUGH. GFS IS
MUCH COLDER THAN EC AT THIS POINT..ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS TREND TEMPS
DOWNWARD TO CLIMO OR BELOW CLIMO AFTER THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF
EARLY WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CST THUR MAR 6 2014
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR STRATUS IS ADVECTING NORTH INTO CWA. ISOLATED FLURRIES
MAY OCCUR OVER THE SRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE CEILINGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS MAJORITY OF PRECIP IS
CONFINED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. FRONTAL BDRY WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHC OF FZDZ/SN.
SHOULD HAVE IFR AT MOST SITES AS CEILINGS LOWER NEAR FRNTL BDRY
..EXCEPT KHYR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 23 31 4 / 20 50 20 10
INL 30 19 25 -5 / 60 80 20 10
BRD 33 25 29 -1 / 10 20 10 0
HYR 34 23 35 6 / 10 40 30 10
ASX 33 23 35 9 / 10 50 30 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
1003 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
WINDS FINALLY COMING DOWN AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE DUE TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
STRONG GUSTS ON THE THE ORDER OF 60 MPH OBSERVED AT TIMBERCREST
RAWS AND 50 MPH AT BURGESS JCT INDICATIVE OF SOME PREFRONTAL
DOWNSLOPE/MTN WAVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE FOOTHILLS FROM NOW TIL
ABOUT MID AFTERNOON. RAP SOUNDING AT SHERIDAN SUGGESTS 45+ KTS
BISECTING THE CREST OF THE BIG HORNS...SO BELIEVE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS MAY TRANSLATE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BIG HORNS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS AND TAFS...AND ADVERTISED
THIS BRIEF WIND THREAT THRU SOCIAL MEDIA.
PACIFIC FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER THE MTNS. TIMING IS A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO HAVE RAISED LOWER ELEVATION POPS TO LIKELY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND THIS
WILL HELP TO OFFSET THE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING IN PLACE.
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR NE WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS TO REACH
OUR CWA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE BIGGEST IMPACT IS LOCAL LOW LAND OR URBAN FLOODING
RESULTING FROM LOWER ELEVATION SNOW MELT AND ICE JAMS. PROBLEMS
NOTED AT LIVINGSTON...MILES CITY AND ALONG PRYOR CREEK.
JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG IN THE
GAP FLOW AREAS THIS MORNING AND AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOWMELT COULD
BRING ADDITION FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS...WINDS HAVE BEEN HITTING ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT IN THE
GAP FLOW AREAS AT BOTH LIVINGSTON AND NYE. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING WAS
CREATING A SUFFICIENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE THE
WINDS. MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS ARE STABLE WITH 700 MB WIND SPEEDS AT
60 KTS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE MORNING AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. WILL KEEP CURRENT
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION...STRONG DISTURBANCE WITH AMPLE PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING THIS MORNING TO OUR NORTH AND ALSO OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE STRONGEST LIFT INTO
YELLOWSTONE PARK BUT THE MOUNTAINS AROUND COOKE CITY SHOULD SEE 10
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING. DID INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE
PLAINS WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING AND
NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.
COOLED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL COOLER AS A COLD FRONT
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S FROM BILLINGS
WEST WITH 30S AND 20S EAST.
HYDRO...PARK COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE IS STILL REPORTING MINOR
FLOODING STILL OCCURRING IN LIVINGSTON AND THE PARADISE VALLEY.
RAPID SNOWMELT IS CAUSING LOCAL AREA ROADS TO FLOOD. THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER IN LIVINGSTON IS WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PROBLEMS WITH THE SNOWMELT. WILL KEEP FLOOD
ADVISORY GOING TODAY AS WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER SOMEWHAT
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. READINGS WILL WARM INTO THE
40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MANY
AREAS SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING THE
STRONGEST PORTIONS OF THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF OUR AREA INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN ANY CASE...IT STILL
WARRANTS A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY BUT COOL TO SEASONAL
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR VIS AND CIGS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH FROPA LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH GUST OF 30 TO 40 KNOT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AROUND KSHR. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051 026/041 026/051 033/058 037/052 029/047 026/043
6/W 33/W 10/U 01/N 14/W 22/W 22/W
LVM 052 028/044 025/049 034/057 036/052 026/045 020/044
7/W 43/W 20/N 02/W 24/W 22/W 22/W
HDN 052 024/039 023/050 028/058 034/055 029/049 027/045
6/W 43/W 10/U 00/B 13/W 22/W 22/W
MLS 045 017/029 020/046 030/054 035/051 030/047 028/044
7/W 23/J 10/U 00/B 12/W 12/W 22/W
4BQ 049 022/034 023/048 029/058 035/055 029/048 026/044
4/W 44/J 10/U 00/B 13/W 32/W 22/W
BHK 046 013/025 016/041 028/053 032/048 026/042 024/040
4/W 22/J 10/B 00/B 12/W 21/B 12/W
SHR 056 027/042 023/052 027/061 032/055 027/046 022/045
3/W 43/W 20/U 01/B 12/W 43/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
110 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FURTHER EAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SSWD INTO
EASTERN TX. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA AND
NRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A SECOND LOW NOTED OFF THE COAST OF OREGON.
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH OVERCAST CONDS EXTENDING FROM
MONTANA EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS STREAMED INTO WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
GARDEN CITY KS...TO CONCORDIA KS...TO NORFOLK NEBRASKA. THIS AREA
OF LOW CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTH
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOLNS...THIS
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. EAST OF
THIS FEATURE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT...WHICH HAS LED TO A
MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. 2 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 23 AT
BROKEN BOW...TO 35 DEGREES AT VALENTINE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
TEMPERATURES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR TODAY...SURFACE TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 10C TO 12C...HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST ARE ON
TRACK. THE ONE THING WHICH MAY BUST THE FORECAST IS THE PRESENCE
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS HIGH CLOUDINESS
CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY
MID MORNING. EVEN WITH THE LIMITED CLOUD COVER...DECENT MIXING
SHOULD TRUMP ANY EFFECTS OF CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
IN MIND...INCREASED HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE AND UTILIZED MIXED H85
TEMPS FOR HIGHS TDY. FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NRN MINNESOTA...FORCING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH A
SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. LIFT WILL BE DECENT
WITH THE FROPA...HOWEVER WITH THE MID LAYERS BEING FAIRLY
DRY...DECIDED TO LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES TONIGHT. BETTER
CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AS A SECOND...STRONGER
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
MILD TONIGHT...THANKS TO ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AND
WINDS. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR SNOW TO THE LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AGAIN...QPF`S WILL BE LIGHT AS
TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PCPN TO REACH THE
SURFACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE
FAR NORTH...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH A
COLDER ARCTIC FRONT TO FOLLOW MIDDAY. SOUNDINGS ARE DRY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WITH TOP DOWN SATURATION NEEDED FOR PRECIP TO HIT THE
GROUND. TEMPS IN THE MORNING FOR THE MOST PART NEAR OR ABOVE THE
FREEZING...AND TEMPS JUST OFF THE SFC SHOULD BE ABOVE ZERO...AT
LEAST UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO START
OUT AS RAIN...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW FOR THE
AFTERNOON...FROM N TO S. AS FOR HIGHS...LOOKING LIKE EARLY DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...MAYBE EARLY MORNING HIGHS NEAR THE
NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER. AS FOR PRECIP TOTALS...WITH THE TOP DOWN
SATURATION...AM CONCERNED MODELS MAYBE OVER DOWN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VARIES AS BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE ABLE
TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH PRECIP REACHING THE
GROUND...HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT...THE LOWER
LEVELS DRY QUICKLY. RADAR RETURNS ARE LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE
LIGHTER RETURNS MAY NOT BE REACHING THE GROUND. OVERALL COULD SEE
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS...AND SNOWFALL
TOTALS OF LESS THAN AN INCH.
SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A COOL MARCH
DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS TO
THE SE WITH RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY. 850
MB TEMPS SURGE BACK TO 10C TO 15C. GFS EVEN WARMS SW NEB TO NEAR
17C AT 850 MB. GUIDANCE INTO THE 60S AND A FEW TAP 70...AND SEE NO
REASON TO GO AGAINST THIS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS IS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH MOST AREAS LESS THAN A 5 DEGREE SPREAD FOR HIGHS.
MORE UNCERTAIN DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY. NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS ACROSS NW
NEB TO THE LOWER 60S...WHILE ANOTHER MID TO UPPER 60S /AND
POSSIBLY 70/ AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WARM TEMPS WILL
PROMOTE P TYPE AS RAIN AS LOWS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS NRN ZONES COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH AFTER 2 DAYS IN THE 60S...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IMPACT FROM ANY OF THE SNOW. COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 50...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014
HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...WHEN A SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS IS EXPECTED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. GENERALLY EXPECTING A
RAIN SNOW MIX WITHIN THE BAND...BUT A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW IS POSSIBLE. VFR SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING IN AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1142 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
CHALLENGES ABOUND THIS MORNING WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND A
HODGEPODGE OF HEADLINES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...
BUT WILL FOLLOW THE RAP FOR DETAILS IN THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS AS
IT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THUS
IMPACTING P-TYPE AT THE SURFACE.
EARLY THIS MORNING...A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
ND IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS ESTEVAN SASKATCHEWAN AND
PURE RAIN FROM CROSBY TO WILLISTON...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RAP 0 C ISOTHERM AT 850 HPA STRADDLES THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THINK FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE. COULD STILL SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.
FOR THESE REASONS...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND
REPLACED IT WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 18 UTC. WILL
TRIM WESTERN COUNTIES AT 15 UTC. EXPECT SPOTTY ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS...BUT EVEN A THIN GLAZE CAN CREATE SLICK
CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT UNTIL 18
UTC FOR A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN MIX SINCE WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DELAYED AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN
INCH IS POSSIBLE.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION AROUND THE NOON HOUR...ANOTHER
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
SHORT-WAVE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY 850 HPA
THERMAL GRADIENT. P-TYPE WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LANGDON TO
PEMBINA TO BEMIDJI. WILL LIKELY NEED TO COVER THIS SCENARIO WITH
ANOTHER ADVISORY...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THIS MORNING/S MIXED
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS UPDATE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END
BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST ND. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...COLDER AIR
WILL BE DELAYED SO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS SEEM
REASONABLE.
1028 TO 1030 HPA SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SOLAR AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
MN AND IA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FROM THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...BUT DIFFER IN MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION WITH
THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT. FOR
EXAMPLE...ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IS WELL EAST OF
THE GFS...AND INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THE PREFERENCE
FROM THE PMDEPD IS TOWARD THE ECMWF...WHICH THE ALLBLEND (CURRENT
MODEL BLEND...BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST) MORE OR LESS
DEPICTS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL MAKE PRECIP
CHANCES DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT CHANCES DO EXIST (JUST NOT SURE
WHERE OR WHEN).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 20 KTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUBSIDE FOR A TIME NEAR THE SFC TROUGH
BEFORE BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS
AGAIN OVER 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT FALLING CEILINGS
NEAR AND BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INTO THE
MVFR/IFR RANGE...WITH SOME REDUCED VSBYS WITH BR/BLOWING OR DRIFTING
SNOW. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY FROM DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. KEPT AS LIGHT
SNOW...BUT SOME MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE INITIALLY. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS KFAR...SO KEPT PRECIP MENTION OUT THERE.
A BIT OF BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER NW WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
340 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERN STORM MAY GRAZE THE VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA BORDER LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. MILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SYSTEM MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COLD AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT REALLY A LOT OF CHANGE WITH REGARD TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN A
GENERAL SENSE...WITH REGARD TO THE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST INFO FROM 12Z NWP RUNS. STILL APPEARS THAT
THE FORECAST AREA ONLY GETS A GLANCING BRUSH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
FIRST...REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES. THE CONSENSUS HAS BEEN A
LEAN TOWARDS THE OP GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
THE NAM THE OUTLIER AND FURTHEST WEST. EVEN THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST WITH AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE AND
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. LARGE
SCALE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH CAROLINA
AROUND 12Z FRI...AND ONLY BRUSHES OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 280K-290K SFC/S ALL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
OVER CENTRAL VA AND POINTS FURTHER SE. ALSO APPEARS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS MAIN DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOC WITH 850MB AND 700MB
LOWS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. ALL THIS TO SAY...NOT FINDING ANY
REAL DECENT SOURCES OF DYNAMIC AND/OR SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE CWA.
CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM QPF OUTPUT IS IN SUPPORT...KEEPING
MEASURABLE QPF JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA. OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS ALSO
KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY. LATEST HRRR RUNS BRING SOME PRECIP
RIGHT UP TO THE WYOMING/MCDOWELL COUNTY AREAS OF WEST VIRGINIA.
SO...IN THE END...NO REAL DRASTIC CHANGES WITH POPS ALONG OUR SE
BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FRIDAY TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH I DID ALLOW LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE BKW AREA WHICH
IS A BIT OF AN INCREASE FROM PREV SHIFT. INHERITED MINS FROM PREV
SHIFT STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. STILL
EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY SLEET TO BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOR THE WEST VIRGINIA ZONES ROUGHLY
MCDOWELL COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. THE
VIRGINIA COUNTIES MAY REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. EVEN WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIP TONIGHT OR
EARLY TOMORROW...A HEAVY FREEZING MIST IS POSSIBLE ON AFOREMENTIONED
UPSLOPE SFC FLOW WHICH COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN A GLAZE. WILL LEAVE
FREEZING MIST/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WORDING IN HWO BUT HAVE ELECTED TO
NOT HOIST ANY HIGHLIGHTS.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS SEEING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES AT 18Z AND ENDED BY 21Z AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
NORTH WITH DEPARTING SFC LOW OFF TO THE EAST...WHICH SCOURS OUT ANY
REMAINING LLVL MOISTURE. TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S STILL
ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FROM PREV FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE REGION BETWEEN SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH WEAK
WINDS...SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATION NIGHT. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE
OF MOS GUIDANCE LOWS. A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NAM IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE GFS
AND ECMWF. WILL LAG SOME VERY SMALL POPS BEHIND THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NAM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD...WITH RIDGE REBUILDING
OVER THE U.S. AND CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND DEEPENING L/W TROUGH IN THE
E.
THE MAIN FCST ISSUE THIS PERIOD IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH MID STREAM
ENERGY AS S/W TROUGHS IN THE NRN AND MID STREAMS MOVE SEWD IN
CONCERT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT. THE GFS SHOWS A
POSITIVE TILT MID STREAM TROUGH THAT THE NRN STREAM BASICALLY FALLS
INTO...GENERATING A FLAT WAVE AT THE SFC. THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO
ITS LARGE SYSTEM SOLN...AS THE MID STREAM S/W CLOSES
OFF...GENERATING MORE VIGOROUS CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SFC.
THE GFS FLAT WAVE SOLN WOULD ENTAIL A SFC LOW TRACK FASTER AND
FARTHER S AND E...ALLOWING THE COLD AIR TO POUR SWD INTO THE AREA
WED WITH ANAFRONT PRECIPITATION. THE SLOWER...DEEPER AND FARTHER N
AND W TRACK OF THE ECMWFHIRES SFC LOW WOULD PUMP WARM AIR INTO THE
AREA TUE NT INTO WED...BEFORE TRACKING RIGHT OVER THE AREA WED
AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR WOULD THEN POUR SEWD INTO THE AREA WED
WEDNESDAY NT...AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD PULLS OUT.
DRIER...COLDER AIR THEN CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK IN EITHER CASE.
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AND WPC...A LITTLE BIAS CORRECTED
ECMWFHIRES ALSO BLENDED IN. THE FCST FOLLOWS WPC COMPROMISE...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY RAIN INCREASING WED NT AND CONTINUING
THU...FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCE FOR SHOW SHOWERS THU8 NT INTO FRI.
LASTLY...MON AND TUE LOOK DRY AND MILD AHEAD OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING THE BKW TERMINAL.
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH LLVL
MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE LOW
STRATUS TO FORM IN THESE AREAS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXACTLY
HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL BE AT BKW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
WILL INCLUDE LOW MVFR WITH A SCT IFR CIG FOR NOW...AS IFR CIGS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE HERE.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS REACHING INTO DICKENSON COUNTY VIRGINIA ON NE
ALONG THE VA/WV BORDER WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
ALONG EASTERN SLOPES. EVEN WHERE PRECIP IS NOT MEASURED...COLD AIR
WITH NEAR-SATURATED LLVLS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY RESULT IN SOME
FREEZING MIST.
THE BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE BY THE 15Z TIME
FRAME...WITH PERHAPS MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT TO MID-RANGE MVFR CIGS
BTWN 15Z-18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT COULD
VARY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING BKW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
242 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN COAST WITH DEVELOPING STORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. WESTERN FRINGE OF STORM ALONG VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA
BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT REALLY A LOT OF CHANGE WITH REGARD TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN A
GENERAL SENSE...WITH REGARD TO THE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST INFO FROM 12Z NWP RUNS. STILL APPEARS THAT
THE FORECAST AREA ONLY GETS A GLANCING BRUSH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
FIRST...REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES. THE CONSENSUS HAS BEEN A
LEAN TOWARDS THE OP GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
THE NAM THE OUTLIER AND FURTHEST WEST. EVEN THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST WITH AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE AND
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. LARGE
SCALE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH CAROLINA
AROUND 12Z FRI...AND ONLY BRUSHES OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 280K-290K SFC/S ALL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
OVER CENTRAL VA AND POINTS FURTHER SE. ALSO APPEARS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS KEEPS MAIN DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOC WITH 850MB AND 700MB
LOWS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. ALL THIS TO SAY...NOT FINDING ANY
REAL DECENT SOURCES OF DYNAMIC AND/OR SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE CWA.
CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM QPF OUTPUT IS IN SUPPORT...KEEPING
MEASURABLE QPF JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA. OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS ALSO
KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY. LATEST HRRR RUNS BRING SOME PRECIP
RIGHT UP TO THE WYOMING/MCDOWELL COUNTY AREAS OF WEST VIRGINIA.
SO...IN THE END...NO REAL DRASTIC CHANGES WITH POPS ALONG OUR SE
BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FRIDAY TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH I DID ALLOW LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE BKW AREA WHICH
IS A BIT OF AN INCREASE FROM PREV SHIFT. INHERITED MINS FROM PREV
SHIFT STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. STILL
EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY SLEET TO BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOR THE WEST VIRGINIA ZONES ROUGHLY
MCDOWELL COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. THE
VIRGINIA COUNTIES MAY REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. EVEN WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIP TONIGHT OR
EARLY TOMORROW...A HEAVY FREEZING MIST IS POSSIBLE ON AFOREMENTIONED
UPSLOPE SFC FLOW WHICH COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN A GLAZE. WILL LEAVE
FREEZING MIST/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WORDING IN HWO BUT HAVE ELECTED TO
NOT HOIST ANY HIGHLIGHTS.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS SEEING AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES AT 18Z AND ENDED BY 21Z AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
NORTH WITH DEPARTING SFC LOW OFF TO THE EAST...WHICH SCOURS OUT ANY
REMAINING LLVL MOISTURE. TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S STILL
ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FROM PREV FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EAST COAST STORM APPROACHING CAPE HATTERAS AND THE MOVING OUT TO SEA
FRIDAY...AND HAVE PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS LEADS TO A COOL FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN
INCREASING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM SATURDAY...WITH COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 00Z NAM TRIES TO SHOW A WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN CROSSING CWA...AND EVEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
TRY TO SHOW AN AREA OF HIGHER QPF CROSSING THE NORTHERN CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO DID UP POPS A TOUCH ACROSS THE NORTH. PRECIP LINGERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES. INITIALLY ON SATURDAY PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...WITH A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN...BUT
MOISTURE ALREADY MOVING OUT AT THAT POINT TOO. DID INCLUDE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UNDER AN INCH...IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW REMAINING FRIDAY MORNING...AND CLOUDS
GRADUALLY MOVING OUT THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASED HIGHS IN THE
EASTERN LOWLANDS BY BLENDING IN THE WARMER MAV. HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING SATURDAY...BUT ALSO WARM SE FLOW IN PLACE. MAV/MET FAIRLY
CLOSE SO USED A BIAS-CORRECTED MOS BLEND. COOLER SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED. NRN STREAM DOMINATES
WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT AS L/W TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS
IS A HIGH HEIGHT WNW FLOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NRN
STREAM...SO TEMPERATURES STAY CLOSE TO NORMAL...EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NONETHELESS...THE NRN STREAM IS SHOWN TO BE MORE
DOMINANT COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...THE UPPER FLOW MORE NW THAN
WNW...SHUNTING ANY SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURES TO THE S.
THE GFS SHOWS A DRY...NRN STREAM COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...NOW
MON RATHER THAN TUE...THE OTHER MODELS LACK THIS FEATURE.
BIGGER QUESTION IN THE EXTENDED COMES NEAR THE END...WHEN THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN...WITH STRONG RIDGING IN THE W AND
TROUGHING IN THE E. THE ECMWF SHOWS A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM DAY 7...IT
HAS GONE FROM A SNOWSTORM TO A WARM TO COLD SYSTEM WHICH COULD STILL
CREATE WINTRY ISSUES AT THE END. THE GFS AMPLIFIES A SFC FEATURE
ONLY IN TIME FOR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ON TEMPERATURES...STAYING CLOSE TO WPC
VIA BLENDING IN SOME OF IT...ALONG WITH CONSENSUS DATA. THE DAY 7
FCST IS A COMPROMISE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING THE BKW TERMINAL.
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH LLVL
MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE LOW
STRATUS TO FORM IN THESE AREAS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXACTLY
HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL BE AT BKW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
WILL INCLUDE LOW MVFR WITH A SCT IFR CIG FOR NOW...AS IFR CIGS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE HERE.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS REACHING INTO DICKENSON COUNTY VIRGINIA ON NE
ALONG THE VA/WV BORDER WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
ALONG EASTERN SLOPES. EVEN WHERE PRECIP IS NOT MEASURED...COLD AIR
WITH NEAR-SATURATED LLVLS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY RESULT IN SOME
FREEZING MIST.
THE BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE BY THE 15Z TIME
FRAME...WITH PERHAPS MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT TO MID-RANGE MVFR CIGS
BTWN 15Z-18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT COULD
VARY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING BKW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
913 AM PST THU MAR 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE COMPOSITE SHOWS TWO LINE
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS ORIENTATED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE SECOND
FROM GOLD BEACH THROUGH CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE SECOND LINE
HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES MOSTLY AROUND CAPE BLANCO
AND NORTHERN CURRY COUNTY. THE HRRR 3KM MAX REFLECTIVITY PICKS UP
ON THIS SECOND FEATURE WELL AND IT SHOWS IT MOVING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY AND MOVING INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ESPECIALLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD
AIR ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE SNOW LEVELS ARE COMING DOWN
AND IT`S ACCUMULATING AROUND DIAMOND AND CRATER LAKE AREA. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR TODAY, OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
IS STILL ON TRACK. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN THAT I`M NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO TRIM THEM BACK. WITH THAT SAID, MOST HOURS AND LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE INSTABILITY SHOWERS, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. WE`LL CATCH A BREAK IN THE WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MOST OF SATURDAY BEFORE WET
CONDITIONS RETURN. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH THE
MODELS ON THE SATURDAY SYSTEM AND WE`LL LOOK AT THIS IN MORE
DETAIL. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 06/12Z TAF CYCLE
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 35KT
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST, OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE EAST
SIDE TODAY. WINDS WON`T BE AS STRONG IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE
CASCADES, BUT COULD STILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW AND
A TROUGH SHIFTING THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ALSO
EVEN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS, LOWEST IN SHOWERS. TERRAIN OBSCURATION
WILL BE NEAR TOTAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END
THIS EVENING...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH
LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST LATER TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
ELSEWHERE. SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...GALES WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING,
BUT WILL SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. VERY STEEP, CHAOTIC SEAS WILL
TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL THIS AFTERNOON...PEAKING AT 15 TO 20
FEET BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 10 FEET BY
FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT A STRONG FRONT WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SPILDE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM PST THU MAR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...A FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS MOVING INLAND BRINGING A COLD AND SHOWERY REGIME TO THE
AREA TODAY.
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM
THE COAST TO THE CASCADES THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES.
INSTABILITY WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EARLY THIS
MORNING, LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST
FROM CAPE BLANCO TO FLORENCE. MODELS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT THESE AREAS TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ALL INLAND AREAS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
THE COLD AIR MASS MOVING OVERHEAD HAS ALSO ALLOWED SNOW
LEVELS TO LOWER TO AROUND 5500 TO 6000 FEET AND EXPECT SNOW
LEVELS TO LOWER FURTHER DOWN TO 4500 TO 5000 FEET IN SHOWERS
TODAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES BY MID MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW TO LOCATIONS ABOVE 5000 FT. GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES TO BRING REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN IN
THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. DUE TO THE IMPACTS FROM ACCUMULATING
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW, HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES ABOVE 5000 FEET.
BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHOWERS
TODAY. ADVISORY TO WARNING LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN EAST
SIDE LOCATIONS, MAINLY IN THE WARNER MOUNTAINS AND SUMMER LAKE
AREAS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS OUT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OF NOTE IS THAT GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST BELOW HIGH WINDS CRITERIA FOR
THE WARNERS AND SUMMER LAKE AREA. HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE 700 MB 50 KT JET ALOFT, DECIDED TO KEEP
A WARNING FOR HIGH WINDS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SURROUNDING HIGH TERRAIN IN EASTERN KLAMATH, LAKE AND
MODOC COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH GUSTS
OF 45 TO 50 KT TODAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND EXPECT
SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER STRONG FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST LATE SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH AND BRING THE FRONT
INTO THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND INLAND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH,
ABOVE 8000 FEET, AND WILL LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO 4500
TO 6000 FT AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000
FEET FOR FOR ORZ027-028.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST
THIS MORNING FOR PZZ356-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1152 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
THE FIRST QUESTION AS FAR AS IMPORTANT WEATHER IS WHETHER OR NOT WE
NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THE BLOWING SNOW IN SOUTHWEST MN BACK TO
BROOKINGS SD...WHERE THE BEST SNOW FELL AND WHERE THE WINDS ARE
STRONGEST. WEBCAMS AND REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATE FEW
VISIBILITY PROBLEMS BEING REPORTED THOUGH SNOW IS BLOWING OVER
ROADS. THE SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NEARING THEIR PEAK BUT
PROBABLY WILL NOT GET THERE UNTIL A BIT AFTER DAYBREAK. BELIEVE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ENOUGH AS WE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE THREATENING WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS. THE WINDS THEMSELVES ARE GENERALLY BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SOME WINDS NUDGING INTO THE BOTTOM OF THAT ZONES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE BUT FEEL THIS IS NOT
CONSISTENT ENOUGH AREA WINDS TO WARRANT A HIGHLIGHT FOR THAT. WINDS
ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG OUTSIDE THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA...AND WINDS
SHOULD SHOW A SLOW DECREASE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER QUESTION RELATES TO CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS NOT REALLY MUCH
OF A PROBLEM ASIDE FROM THE FINE DETAILS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE
EASTERN CWA STRATUS DECK. THIS IS JUST ABOUT WHAT WE EXPECTED A DAY
AGO FOR THIS TIME. A COMBINATION OF HEATING AND DRYING IN THE STRONG
FLOW SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THIS STRATUS FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SHOW
THE DECK WILL ACTUALLY BE ERODING FROM THE TOP...THIS HAS BEEN MOST
APPARENT ON THE RAP RH PROJECTIONS FOR H900/925/950 MB. A THICKER
DECK WOULD BE A LOT MORE STUBBORN BUT THIS ONE SHOULD BREAK UP
STEADILY. SKIES WILL TEND TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH CLOUDS COME AND
GO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY AS WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING THEM
CONSIDERING THE EXISTING SNOW COVER...WITH EVERYBODY EXPECTED TO
BUST THE FREEZING MARK AND GETTING AS WARM AS 50 SOUTHWEST IN
GREGORY COUNTY. COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS WEAK AND WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY
WITH MAINLY A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET POTENTIAL. IF THIS POTENTIAL
DEVELOPS THERE WOULD BE PROBLEMS...BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN
DECENT MODEL SUPPORT TO PUN THE PRECIPITATION DOWN ANY BETTERED AT
THIS TIME. IN THE MILD AIR NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT....LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THUS MOST OF US WILL SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY IN THE 20S AND 30S. PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. 0Z NAM
IS STRONGEST WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND IS ALSO QUICKER
WITH THE PV ANOMALY EXITING THE ROCKIES. THE INTERACTION OF THE TWO
LEADS TO HIGHER QPF SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE 0Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND THE PV ANOMALY...RESULTING IN LESS
INTERACTION AND WEAKER LIFT...THUS ALLOWING THE DRY AIR TO MAINLY
WIN OUT. THE STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS FROM THE NAM IS POSSIBLE...AS IT
USUALLY CATCHES ON TO THAT FIRST WITH ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. A
STRONGER FRONT WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE WE SATURATE AND GET SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVEN FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER FEEL THE SLOWER AND
WEAKER PV ANOMALY FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF IS MORE LIKELY...AS THE NAM
SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER AND CAN REALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS BEYOND 24 HOURS. THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT AND PUSH SOUTH
SOME OF THE HIGHER QPF VALUES SEEN ON THE NAM DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SO WILL GO WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT BUT WEAKER LARGE SCALE
FORCING IDEA...WHICH RESULTS IN POPS PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR TAPERING AS YOU HEAD NORTH. THIS ALSO RESULTS IN A BLENDED
QPF...SLIGHTLY SKEWED TOWARDS THE DRIER SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM. WARM
AIR ALOFT INITIALLY MAY RESULT IN A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
INITIALLY...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN AND WE WET
BULB. AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW THOUGH...MAINLY JUST A LIGHT COATING OF ICE
OR SNOW...MAYBE UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOW ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER CORRIDOR. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS THOUGH...AS IF THE NAM
VERIFIED SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE HIGHER IN OUR SOUTH...BUT AGAIN THIS
SEEMS LIKE A LOWER PROBABILITY EVENT AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL BE A COLD ONE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS COMMON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY
RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE COLD
LOW LEVELS WILL HANG ON...RESULTING IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND
30S. HOWEVER THE WARMUP REALLY BEGINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW
SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SUGGESTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THESE
WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IS INTRODUCED INTO THE
FORECAST FROM THE SNOWPACK AND HOW MUCH IT INHIBITS WARMING. GIVEN
THE DEEP SNOW COVER OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST IOWA...THINK THEY WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 40S BOTH
DAYS. MORE UNCERTAIN ELSEWHERE...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
SNOWPACK WE LOSE OVER THE COMING DAYS. WITH THE MARCH SUN...MELTING
COULD BE PRETTY EFFICIENT...HOWEVER TODAY AND TOMORROW MAY TEND TO
STAY MAINLY CLOUDY...AND SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER...SO NOT SURE WHERE
WE WILL BE SNOWPACK WISE COME SUNDAY. THUS STAYED ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE FOR NOW ON SUNDAY. DID WARM HIGHS ON MONDAY OVER
ALLBLEND THOUGH...AS MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE SNOW COVER WILL BE LESS
OF A FACTOR OUTSIDE OF OUR EASTERN AREAS. THUS 50S AND LOW 60S
SHOULD BE A GOOD BET ON MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS COULD END UP SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST
DEPENDING ON THE ABOVE SNOW COVER IMPACT THOUGH...SO WILL NEED TO
FINE TUNE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH NOT THAT COLD
OF AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE HIGHS COULD
STAY IN THE 30S AND 40S. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT...BUT COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GIVEN THE WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TYPE
COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
IFR CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO
PERSIST BENEATH STRENGTHENING INVERSION ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND
NEARBY AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PULL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD...WITH AREAS OF IFR
CEILINGS AND/OR MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK INTO
AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE LOW
STRATUS COULD BE AREAS -FZDZ AS WARM ADVECTION LIFT INCREASES ABOVE
THE INVERSION...AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THIS IN PRE-FRONTAL AIR
MASS AT KFSD/KSUX DURING 06Z-12Z PERIOD.
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY.
WHILE THE FRONT SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE LOWEST IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-29...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LACK OF MOISTURE BETWEEN LOW STRATUS
AND MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER SHOULD LIMIT POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT.
OCCASIONAL SOUTHERLY SURFACE GUSTS ABOVE 25 KNOTS EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 07/00Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1049 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT. SOME MVFR CIGS APPEARING IN OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES
THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
THINKING IS THAT MVFR CLOUD DECK UP NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH AND ERODE DURING THE DAY (AS SUPPORTED BY HRRR). A COUPLE
TAF SITES MIGHT GO BROKEN BUT THINK SKIES SHOULD STAY SCATTERED
FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE OF SOME GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALL THANKS TO THE AREA BEING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
REVEALED 850MB WINDS AROUND 20KTS WITH 700MB WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE. MIXING HAS ALREADY STARTED THIS MORNING ALLOWING SOME
OF THESE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN. MODELS ARE ALSO ADVERTISING
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MAKING A COME BACK TOMORROW MORNING BUT KEEPING
TAF SITES VFR. 23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WESTERN EDGES OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR
THE TX/LA BORDER. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY NORTH WINDS THAT WILL LIKELY HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS COME BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND START TO WARM THINGS
UP AS WE HEAD ON INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL WAIT FOR ALL OF THE 12Z MODEL
DATA TO ARRIVE BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENT TO OUR WEEKEND`S RAIN
CHANCES. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
IR/3.9-11 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ERODING AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES TO NEAR THE COAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR/MVFR
CIGS TO IMPROVE OVER THE LAST HOUR. EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS THE NEXT
6-12 HRS. CONCERNED THAT CLOUD COVER OVER N TX MAY PUSH INTO THE
AREA BUT MODELS ARE MIXING ENOUGH THAT DOUBT THERE WILL BE OVC/BKN
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. LIKED HRRR RUNS WHERE THESE CLOUDS DO ERODE
BUT STILL DEVELOP SCT/BKN CLOUDS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
MAY BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS WERE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS EMERGED BEGINNING SUNDAY. OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL SITE MEX AND ECMWF GUIDANCE NUMBERS
DIFFERED BY MORE THAN 10 DEGREES. BECAUSE OF THIS...DECIDED TO
TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODELS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR TODAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO SE TX. EXPECT THE
CLOUD COVER TO SCATTER OUT AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS MAY GET UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO ONE
MORE NIGHT OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.
AM LESS CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND
DUE TO THE MORE DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 WAS DRIER FOR
SATURDAY EVEN WITH THE MODEL PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
THE ECMWF WAS VERY WET WHILE THE GFS WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO. MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS DID NOT SHOW A LOT OF INSTABILITY
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS CONFIRMED BY FORECASTS OF THE LIFTED
INDEX FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE DRIER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF
DIFFERED EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY. DECIDED LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE
PREVIOUS RAIN CHANCE FORECAST AND BLEND IN WITH THE SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER IN TIMING AND LOCATION...BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS PUSH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX AND OFF THE COAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...KEPT SOME RAIN CHANCES TOWARD
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY...AND AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH SE TX TODAY SHOULD
REACH THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT N/NW WINDS TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS. WILL HAVE SCEC AS
DO NOT SEE SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20KTS TO WARRANT SCA. SCEC WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER E TX TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST SOMETIME SUNDAY BUT ALL MODELS SHOW CONFLICTING
TIMING. GFS/ECMWF EVEN HAVING TROUBLE DETERMINING IF A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY (ECMWF) OR TUESDAY (GFS). THIS WILL
LIKELY IMPACT WINDS/SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ECMWF HAS STRONG COLD FRONT ON WED WHERE
GFS HAS FRONT COMING THROUGH NEXT THUR.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 38 67 50 69 / 0 0 10 10 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 39 66 51 71 / 0 0 10 10 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 59 47 61 55 67 / 0 0 10 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1023 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WESTERN EDGES OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR
THE TX/LA BORDER. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY NORTH WINDS THAT WILL LIKELY HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS COME BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND START TO WARM THINGS
UP AS WE HEAD ON INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL WAIT FOR ALL OF THE 12Z MODEL
DATA TO ARRIVE BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENT TO OUR WEEKEND`S RAIN
CHANCES. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
IR/3.9-11 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ERODING AS COLD
FRONT PUSHS TO NEAR THE COAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR/MFVR CIGS
TO IMPROVE OVER THE LAST HOUR. EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS THE NEXT 6-12
HRS. CONCERNED THAT CLOUD COVER OVER N TX MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA
BUT MODELS ARE MIXING ENOUGH THAT DOUBT THERE WILL BE OVC/BKN MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP. LIKED HRRR RUNS WHERE THESE CLOUDS DO ERODE BUT
STILL DEVELOP SCT/BKN CLOUDS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY
BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS WERE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS EMERGED BEGINNING SUNDAY. OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL SITE MEX AND ECMWF GUIDANCE NUMBERS
DIFFERED BY MORE THAN 10 DEGREES. BECAUSE OF THIS...DECIDED TO
TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODELS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR TODAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO SE TX. EXPECT THE
CLOUD COVER TO SCATTER OUT AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS MAY GET UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO ONE
MORE NIGHT OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.
AM LESS CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND
DUE TO THE MORE DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 WAS DRIER FOR
SATURDAY EVEN WITH THE MODEL PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
THE ECMWF WAS VERY WET WHILE THE GFS WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO. MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS DID NOT SHOW A LOT OF INSTABILITY
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS CONFIRMED BY FORECASTS OF THE LIFTED
INDEX FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE DRIER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF
DIFFERED EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY. DECIDED LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE
PREVIOUS RAIN CHANCE FORECAST AND BLEND IN WITH THE SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER IN TIMING AND LOCATION...BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS PUSH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX AND OFF THE COAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...KEPT SOME RAIN CHANCES TOWARD
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY...AND AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH SE TX TODAY SHOULD
REACH THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT N/NW WINDS TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS. WILL HAVE SCEC AS
DO NOT SEE SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20KTS TO WARRANT SCA. SCEC WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER E TX TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST SOMETIME SUNDAY BUT ALL MODELS SHOW CONFLICTING
TIMING. GFS/ECMWF EVEN HAVING TROUBLE DETERMINING IF A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY (ECMWF) OR TUESDAY (GFS). THIS WILL
LIKELY IMPACT WINDS/SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ECMWF HAS STRONG COLD FRONT ON WED WHERE
GFS HAS FRONT COMING THROUGH NEXT THUR.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 38 67 50 69 / 0 0 10 10 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 39 66 51 71 / 0 0 10 10 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 59 47 61 55 67 / 0 0 10 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23