Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/06/14


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1044 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014 WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXITING EASTERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRYING NOTED IN WV LOOPS BEHIND IT. ISOLATED MAINLY OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY STRUGGLED TO WARM INTO THE 30S TODAY...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WANING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THESE AREAS MAY COOL QUICKLY THIS EVENING. OTHER AREAS HOWEVER WILL SEE WAA WITH LEE TROFFING OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH LOWER 30S FOR PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WITH NAM12 AND RAP SUGGESTING FOG FROM ROUGHLY KLHX EASTWARD. HOWEVER...ALSO LOOKING AT NEXT ROUND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. DISTANCE SPEED TOOL PUTS THIS INTO THE AREA BY 03-04Z...AND IF CLOUD COVER IS THICK ENOUGH...MAY PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/UPPER LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE CEN/NRN CA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH LEE TROFFING AND POCKETS OF BREEZY WEST WINDS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY...EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL AID IN DEEPER MIXING. SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AFTER 21Z...SPREADING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES LOOK FAIRLY STEEP...SO SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY WET SNOW WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS. FORTUNATELY THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO LAST FOR LONG WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD PICK UP A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. -KT .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014 TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES ON AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF A SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST NAM CONTINUING TO BE THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM AND IS THEREFORE PRINTING OUT MUCH LESS QPF ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALSO TRENDED LESS AMPLIFIED AND A TAD FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...THOUGH ARE STILL PRINTING OUT MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND UVV WITH LF QUAD OF ASSOCIATED JET. THE NAMS TRACK RECORD OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR...AND WITH THAT SAID...HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE PIKES PEAK REGION THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PALMER DVD WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS STARTING AS RAIN BEFORE BECOMING MIXED WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN...WILL NEED TO SEE HOW AMPLIFIED THIS SYSTEM IS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE OR LESS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MTS AND PLAINS. WEDNESDAYS HIGHS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY...THOUGH STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...WARMER WESTERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST. PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE SOME SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITHIN THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTS WITH WESTERLY GAP FLOWS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...40S AND 50S ACROSS THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS AND MAINLY 30S AT THE PEAKS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. FRIDAY-MONDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY....WITH THE ECMWF STILL INDICATING A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DECENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST H7-H5 FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 1044 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014 DRY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
656 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED AS WELL AS ADDING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT TO MATCH WITH CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE. H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE ARE SOME FLURRIES...OR EVEN A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RADAR TRENDS KEEP THESE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL CWA...AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WITH AGREEMENT FROM NAM12 SHOWS SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. HOWEVER...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE HIGH THIS EVENING...SO ANY FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD MOSTLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THEREFORE JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR NEW LONDON COUNTY AT THE MOMENT. NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TO 15-20 MPH ACROSS NYC/SURROUNDING SUBURBS/LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN CT IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ARCTIC AIR MASS SINKS INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 0 TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND FROM 0 TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... COLD AND DRY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRES ENTRENCHES ITSELF JUST NORTH OF NY STATE. USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND ACTUALLY LOWER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 6. THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AN EASTERLY GRADIENT SETS UP FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THINK MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS...AND THAT WOULD BE OPTIMAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THERE. INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST...AND THAT WOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER IN NYC. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT RECORD LOW TEMPS WOULD BE SET DURING THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODELS IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS STORM MOVING UP THE CAROLINA COAST AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS...HIGH PRESSURE FORM THE GULF COAST APPROACHES THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE MILDER CONDITIONS. A COLD MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. ONE LAST BAND OF BKN060 CIGS SHOULD IMPACT MAINLY THE CT AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY N INCREASING TO 10-12 KT BETWEEN 02Z-04Z. FCST GUSTS 20-25 KT COULD END UP BEING MORE OCNL IN NATURE. WINDS THEN BECOME NE 8-12 KT AFTER DAYBREAK...AND THEN VEER ENE BY AFTERNOON. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS TONIGHT COULD BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS TONIGHT COULD BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS TONIGHT COULD BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS TONIGHT COULD BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS TONIGHT COULD BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS TONIGHT COULD BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON... .THU NIGHT-SAT...GENERALLY VFR. .SUN...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. .MON...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP FOR THE OCEAN/SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA...AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. SEAS MAY HOVER AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS. TRANQUIL CONDS OTHERWISE EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE): WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS NEAR TERM...JM/MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...FIG/MPS HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
641 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED AS WELL AS ADDING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT TO MATCH WITH CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE. H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE ARE SOME FLURRIES...OR EVEN A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RADAR TRENDS KEEP THESE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL CWA...AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WITH AGREEMENT FROM NAM12 SHOWS SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. HOWEVER...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE HIGH THIS EVENING...SO ANY FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD MOSTLY DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THEREFORE JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR NEW LONDON COUNTY AT THE MOMENT. NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TO 15-20 MPH ACROSS NYC/SURROUNDING SUBURBS/LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN CT IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ARCTIC AIRMASS SINKS INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 0 TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND FROM 0 TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... COLD AND DRY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRES ENTRENCHES ITSELF JUST NORTH OF NY STATE. USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND ACTUALLY LOWER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 6. THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AN EASTERLY GRADIENT SETS UP FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THINK MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS...AND THAT WOULD BE OPTIMAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THERE. INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST...AND THAT WOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER IN NYC. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT RECORD LOW TEMPS WOULD BE SET DURING THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODELS IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS STORM MOVING UP THE CAROLINA COAST AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS...HIGH PRESSURE FORM THE GULF COAST APPROACHES THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE MILDER CONDITIONS. A COLD MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA TOWARD THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. WINDS GENERALLY N...5-10 KTS...INCREASING 10-12 KTS AFTER 02Z. GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS PSBL OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY END UP BEING MORE OCNL IN NATURE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING MID-HIGH LVL CLOUDS TODAY. SCT 3000 FT CIGS PSBL LATE AFTN...LOW CONFIDENCE OF BKN030. CIGS SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THU-SAT...GENERALLY VFR. .SUN...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF LIGHT PCPN PSBL IN THE MORNING. .MON...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF LIGHT PCPN PSBL. && .MARINE... NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP FOR THE OCEAN/SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA...AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. SEAS MAY HOVER AROUND 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS. TRANQUIL CONDS OTHERWISE EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE): WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS NEAR TERM...JM/MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...SEARS MARINE...FIG/MPS HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
959 AM EST Tue Mar 4 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]... Low level isentropic ascent, coupled with an upper level shortwave produced a large area of convection across the western Gulf overnight/early this morning. The mid-level diabatic heating max will move east rather quickly today in the fast westerly flow regime. The 00z ECMWF and recent RAP runs have initialized the spatial extent of the convection more accurately and will thus weight the forecast for this afternoon more heavily on these pieces of guidance. This mornings surface analysis showed yesterday`s cold front draped across south central Florida, and on through the central Gulf. Cool high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic forced an area of low pressure to weaken and drift south into a more favorable environment. This morning, a remnant trough runs south along the lee side of the Appalachians, into Apalachee Bay. A sharp inversion around 1500ft marks the delineation between the stable saturated low layers and a large area of dry air aloft. Low clouds remain trapped in this stable low layer. Expect the surface trough to continue to gradually weaken and drift west with the very stable cool dome spreading southwest behind it. Low clouds will likely linger for most of the day, though some scattering is expected along and ahead of the trough. For now, will advertise the best chance for scattering along and west of a line from Alligator Point, up through the southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia state line. As one would imagine, the thick low cloud cover will greatly limit afternoon heating. Expect highs to not reach 50 degrees across our northeast Georgia counties, with upper 50s expected in the aforementioned region where scattering is expected to take place. The exact position of the scattering line is highly uncertain, so the takeaway here is that if clouds scatter away where you are, highs should climb into the upper 50s. Otherwise, expect temperatures to remain much cooler. Not expecting much in the way of rain today, and any rain that does fall will be over our extreme western counties late in the day as the aforementioned mid-level PV anomaly links up with the low-level surface trough. In this region expect a mix of weak low level WAA, to combine with weak low/mid layer isentropic ascent, but more significantly, strong mid-level diffluent flow in the entrance region of an intensifying jet. Rain chances will only increase through Wednesday as discussed further, below. && .Aviation... [Through 12Z Wednesday]... Low-end MVFR/IFR ceilings will persist all day at KABY, KVLD, and possibly KTLH and KDHN. Expect scattering to VFR at KECP later this afternoon. Rain spreading in from the west overnight will reinforce the low ceilings area wide once again tonight. && .Prev Discussion [609 AM EST]... .Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... Fast split flow will continue across the CONUS. No sooner will one short wave trough move through our region (late tonight-Wednesday) when another will already be approaching over the Southern Plains. We`re forecasting an 80% PoP overnight for our entire forecast area, though QPF amounts are generally less than a third of an inch. Even though this short wave will be dampening as it moves past our region, high PoP will continue across much of the region on Wednesday due to the proximity to a frontal system (the cold front that passed through Monday) and the rapid approach of the next short wave trough. High PoPs will continue through Thursday morning, then end quickly from west to east as a well-defined mid tropospheric dry slot develops over the forecast area during the day on Thursday. Our QPF total from tonight through Thursday ranges from 0.75 to 1.50 inches. Although both of the upper troughs will be rather energetic (with decent height falls and strong winds aloft), both the GFS and ECMWF continue to place our forecast area north of the surface frontal system. This means that while there could be occasional thunderstorms, the boundary layer will be stable and these storms will be elevated. Thus we don`t expect any damaging winds or tornadoes. The one possible exception could be in North FL (around the Cross City area), where the GFS and ECMWF forecast at least some SBCAPE. A surface low track slightly farther to the north would increase this threat. Conversely, a more southern track would eliminate the threat. With all of the clouds/precipitation and a "wedge" of cool air in place over GA and AL, high temperatures will be rather chilly Wednesday- with highs in the mid 50s (except mid 60s around Cross City). The wedge will get eroded some on Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 50s in GA and AL, and in the mid to upper 60s in FL. Lows will be in the lower to mid 40s across most of the forecast area tonight (upper 40s around Cross City), and mid to upper 40s Thursday night (except mid 50s Cross City). .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... On Thursday night..as trough moves offshore and low exits into Atlc rain decreases then ends from SW-NE. Ridging builds in aloft and high pressure at surface with deep layer dry air on Fri but progressive pattern develops quickly next Wrn trough which begins to move quickly Ewd progressively flattening Ern ridge with steering flow becoming increasingly SWLY with rising temps. This trough reaches Gulf region by Sun eve with some model differences mainly in timing with GFS more progressive. The GFS drags a weak cold front across Sun eve the ECMWF keeps front to our west thru Mon. Will go with 0-30% PoPs SW-NE Thurs night...0-30% Fri...NIL POPS rest of period except 40-20% NW-SE POPs on Sun with the front. Highs upper 60s Fri...70 to 75 Sat thru Mon. Lows Thurs night around 40 north to near 50 south...40-45 Fri night...near 50 Sat and Sun nights. .Marine... It appears that winds and seas have peaked (around 15 KT with 2 to 4 ft seas), and all of the NWP guidance takes winds down to around 10 KT by this afternoon. As the pressure gradient tightens between a wedge of high pressure to our northeast and a stalled front to our south, east winds will increase to the 10 to 15 KT range overnight, and continue through Thursday. .Fire Weather... Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for the foreseeable future. The only notable item is that dispersions will remain quite low over the next couple of days. .Hydrology... Rainfall amounts from Monday were mostly a tenth of an inch or less, and not enough to significantly alter local river/stream flows. A series of upper level disturbances later today through Thursday will deliver roughly an inch of rain (basin average) to much of the region. This projected total is well below Flash Flood Guidance, so flash flooding is not expected. The latest SREF and GFS based hydrology ensembles (MMEFS) indicate that it`s likely that several of our FL sites will go to action stage during the next week or so, but are not expected to go to flood stage. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 59 45 55 49 63 / 10 80 70 70 50 Panama City 59 47 59 51 62 / 20 80 70 70 40 Dothan 51 41 56 46 54 / 40 80 50 70 40 Albany 48 40 54 45 52 / 20 80 60 70 60 Valdosta 52 42 54 49 57 / 10 80 70 70 70 Cross City 66 49 65 55 68 / 0 80 60 70 70 Apalachicola 60 49 60 52 64 / 10 80 70 70 50 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...BLOCK AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
406 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014 .DISCUSSION... 256 PM CST SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE FIRST ARRIVING TONIGHT. THE SECOND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK. A BRIEF WARM UP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO AROUND FREEZING FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...TEMPS REBOUND MONDAY WITH DARE I SAY NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED? REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... TRICKY FORECAST PERIOD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENT THAT THE ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE SNOW AT SOME POINT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW AND FOR HOW LONG. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND IT WILL SHIFT EAST AND FILL TONIGHT. ALOFT THE SHORTWAVE THAT FORCED SNOW THIS MORNING IS TO OUR EAST WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH TEXAS. THE NEXT TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES AND IT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A LARGE HIGH IS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND IT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE FEATURES A DEEP LAYER OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT COINCIDES WITH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER...THE SATURATED LAYER IS WARMER THAN THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...BUT IT IS BELOW 0C. SNOW IS EXPECTED...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE FORCING INDICATES. ALSO PUSHED THE TIMING OF THE SNOW BACK BY A FEW HOURS. THE NAM12 LOOKS TOO FAST WHILE THE RAP IS TOO SLOW. AS SUCH USED OUR LOCAL WRF MODEL FOR TIMING...AND AMOUNTS AS THE WRF SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP. EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF I-88 AND 1 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH OF I-88. THE 4 INCH AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED ABOUT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING 2 TO 3 INCHES. NOTE THESE VALUES ARE LESS THAN THE MAJORITY OF COBB OUTPUT...AND THIS IS DUE TO THE CONCERNS ABOUT SNOW GROWTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF FORCING...DECIDED TO SLIGHTLY RAISE SNOWFALL TOTALS. SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN IL...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3AM. THE BAND WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH MID MORNING...AND MAY SHIFT QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. THE LOCAL WRF INDICATED THE BAND WOULD SHIFT SOUTH QUICKLY...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT FAST. SNOW IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORCING WEAKENS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SO EXPECTING THE SNOW SOUTH OF I-80 TO BE SLOW AND STEADY. IN ADDITION TO THE BAND OF SNOW...MAY SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST. DELTA T/S ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THE THICK ICE COVER WILL LIMIT MIXING. BUT INCLUDED A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN PERIODS OF FLURRIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE JUMPED WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WEST. HOWEVER THINKING WE WILL STILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND. SO ENDED UP WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS...AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE LAKE. TEMPS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL TO THE MID TEENS OVER NW INDIANA. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WHILE ITS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 30. WINDS TURN SOUTH BEHIND THE HIGH AND WAA KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING AND POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 40S! A SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ITS SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. HAVE IT STARTING AS RAIN AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS THE COLD AIR FUNNELS BACK IN. 850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -3C AND THE MAIN POINT IS THE COLD AIR REALLY IS NOT THAT COLD AND IT WILL NOT LAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S. EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLDER AIR SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP. SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY HELP TEMPS BECOME NORMAL IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL. RAISED ALLBLEND TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO AND STILL MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S...AND MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS FEATURES PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. JEE && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z... * SNOW DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WITH AT LEAST PERIODIC IFR VSBY LIKELY IZZI //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... QUIET CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...AS WEAKER SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE. VFR CEILINGS ARE TRYING TO DEPART EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CLOUD DECK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP VFR CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR A TAD LONGER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER MOVES BACK OVERHEAD...INCLUDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUD DECK AROUND THE 2500-0300 FT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO PROVIDE SNOW AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE START TIME. ALTHOUGH...MORE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ACTUAL DURATION OF BETTER SNOWFALL. HAVE THIS BETTER SNOW LASTING THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THE DURATION COULD LAST INTO THE MID DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SEVERAL FACTORS COULD COME INTO PLAY INCLUDING A LAKE COMPONENT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON HOLDING ONTO A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. MORE THAN LIKELY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT DID TRY AND PROVIDE A DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WOULD BE MORE OF A WEST NORTHWEST COMPONENT. THEN EXPECT AN NORTHEAST TO EAST DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RODRIGUEZ //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z... * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TIMING/INTENSITY * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINDER OF FORECAST ELEMENTS IZZI //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z... WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN VFR. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SUNDAY...VFR. RATZER && .MARINE... 224 PM CST THE MAIN STORY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IS LIKELY THE ICE COVERAGE WHICH IS NOW NEAR 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE LAKE...THE HIGHEST SO FAR THIS SEASON. WE WILL START TO SEE SOME DAYS WITH TEMPERATURE PUSHING THE FREEZING MARK DURING THE AFTERNOONS...INCLUDING FRIDAY AND A FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SLOW MELT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH WESTERLY WINDS TURNING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE AXIS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY...AND THEN SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN SOME ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESHENING UP INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE...PERHAPS A FEW 30 KT GUSTS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
256 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014 .DISCUSSION... 256 PM CST SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE FIRST ARRIVING TONIGHT. THE SECOND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK. A BRIEF WARM UP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO AROUND FREEZING FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...TEMPS REBOUND MONDAY WITH DARE I SAY NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED? REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... TRICKY FORECAST PERIOD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENT THAT THE ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE SNOW AT SOME POINT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW AND FOR HOW LONG. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND IT WILL SHIFT EAST AND FILL TONIGHT. ALOFT THE SHORTWAVE THAT FORCED SNOW THIS MORNING IS TO OUR EAST WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH TEXAS. THE NEXT TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES AND IT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A LARGE HIGH IS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND IT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE FEATURES A DEEP LAYER OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT COINCIDES WITH A SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER...THE SATURATED LAYER IS WARMER THAN THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...BUT IT IS BELOW 0C. SNOW IS EXPECTED...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE FORCING INDICATES. ALSO PUSHED THE TIMING OF THE SNOW BACK BY A FEW HOURS. THE NAM12 LOOKS TOO FAST WHILE THE RAP IS TOO SLOW. AS SUCH USED OUR LOCAL WRF MODEL FOR TIMING...AND AMOUNTS AS THE WRF SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP. EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF I-88 AND 1 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH OF I-88. THE 4 INCH AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED ABOUT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING 2 TO 3 INCHES. NOTE THESE VALUES ARE LESS THAN THE MAJORITY OF COBB OUTPUT...AND THIS IS DUE TO THE CONCERNS ABOUT SNOW GROWTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF FORCING...DECIDED TO SLIGHTLY RAISE SNOWFALL TOTALS. SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN IL...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3AM. THE BAND WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH MID MORNING...AND MAY SHIFT QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. THE LOCAL WRF INDICATED THE BAND WOULD SHIFT SOUTH QUICKLY...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT FAST. SNOW IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORCING WEAKENS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SO EXPECTING THE SNOW SOUTH OF I-80 TO BE SLOW AND STEADY. IN ADDITION TO THE BAND OF SNOW...MAY SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST. DELTA T/S ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THE THICK ICE COVER WILL LIMIT MIXING. BUT INCLUDED A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN PERIODS OF FLURRIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE JUMPED WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WEST. HOWEVER THINKING WE WILL STILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND. SO ENDED UP WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS...AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE LAKE. TEMPS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL TO THE MID TEENS OVER NW INDIANA. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WHILE ITS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 30. WINDS TURN SOUTH BEHIND THE HIGH AND WAA KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING AND POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 40S! A SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ITS SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. HAVE IT STARTING AS RAIN AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS THE COLD AIR FUNNELS BACK IN. 850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -3C AND THE MAIN POINT IS THE COLD AIR REALLY IS NOT THAT COLD AND IT WILL NOT LAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S. EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLDER AIR SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP. SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY HELP TEMPS BECOME NORMAL IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL. RAISED ALLBLEND TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO AND STILL MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S...AND MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS FEATURES PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. JEE && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z... * VARYING WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT REMAINING LIGHT. * VFR CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. * INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RODRIGUEZ //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... QUIET CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...AS WEAKER SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE. VFR CEILINGS ARE TRYING TO DEPART EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CLOUD DECK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP VFR CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR A TAD LONGER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER MOVES BACK OVERHEAD...INCLUDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUD DECK AROUND THE 2500-0300 FT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO PROVIDE SNOW AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE START TIME. ALTHOUGH...MORE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ACTUAL DURATION OF BETTER SNOWFALL. HAVE THIS BETTER SNOW LASTING THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THE DURATION COULD LAST INTO THE MID DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SEVERAL FACTORS COULD COME INTO PLAY INCLUDING A LAKE COMPONENT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON HOLDING ONTO A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. MORE THAN LIKELY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT DID TRY AND PROVIDE A DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WOULD BE MORE OF A WEST NORTHWEST COMPONENT. THEN EXPECT AN NORTHEAST TO EAST DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RODRIGUEZ //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z... * MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH CEILING TRENDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. * LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SNOW TRENDS...INCLUDING EXACT TIMING/DURATION. RODRIGUEZ //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z... WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN VFR. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SUNDAY...VFR. RATZER && .MARINE... 224 PM CST THE MAIN STORY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IS LIKELY THE ICE COVERAGE WHICH IS NOW NEAR 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE LAKE...THE HIGHEST SO FAR THIS SEASON. WE WILL START TO SEE SOME DAYS WITH TEMPERATURE PUSHING THE FREEZING MARK DURING THE AFTERNOONS...INCLUDING FRIDAY AND A FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SLOW MELT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH WESTERLY WINDS TURNING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE AXIS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY...AND THEN SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN SOME ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESHENING UP INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE...PERHAPS A FEW 30 KT GUSTS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1148 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014 .DISCUSSION... 319 PM CST THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOR SNOW CHANCES...NAMELY TUE NIGHT AND WED...AND THEN TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS IT GETS CHALLENGING WEIGHING FACTORS SUCH AS CLOUD COVER...INCREASING MARCH SUN ANGLE...SNOW COVER...AND FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING... A STRONG AND BARELY MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OF 1035MB IS IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA GOING INTO THIS EVE. WHILE HEIGHTS ARE SLOWLY RISING ALOFT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WITHIN FAST PACED WNW FLOW IS APPROACHING THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ON WATER VAPOR IS SEEN ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WITH MID CLOUD ALREADY INTO SOUTHWEST WI. THE RAP AND NAM SOLUTIONS OF SIMULATED WATER VAPOR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND HAVE INCORPORATED THAT APPROACH INTO SKY COVER FORECASTS TONIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING CLOUDY BY MID-EVE. THIS WILL MAKE IT TRICKY AS THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS THIS EVE BUT THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OFFSET THIS SOME. HAVE LEANED THE MILDER ROUTE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...WITH A LIMITED DROP-OFF THIS EVE AND THEN TEMPS CLIMBING OVERNIGHT. HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPS FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHWEST IN WHERE MID CLOUDS WILL TAKE THEIR LONGEST TO THICKEN. THE FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL BE PRIMARILY TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO THIS SHORT WAVE...AS IT OFTEN IS WITH THESE PROGRESSIVE ARE LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS. THUS AM NOT TOO EXCITED FOR SNOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY DEEP ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SO HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST 12Z NAM AND CLOSER TO THE RAP AND GLOBAL MODELS...WITH POSSIBLY A DUSTING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-88. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES EARLY IN NORTHEAST IL...THE DAYTIME TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A GAP BETWEEN WAVES LIKELY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE. WITH A MUCH WARMER STARTING POINT THAN TODAY...HIGHS LOOK TO REBOUND MORE TOWARD WHERE THEY SHOULD BE GIVEN THE 925MB TEMPS...BUT FAR FROM WHERE THEY SHOULD BE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE HAS A BETTER PATH TO FAVOR OUR AREA AND ALSO HAS MORE ELONGATED /LONGER LASTING/ FORCING TIED TO ITS UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENESIS. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE AREA SEEING SNOW...NAMELY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...AND IT MAKES GOOD SENSE GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. SO CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS. THE SNOW LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT GIVEN TOP DOWN METHOD AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES...WITH MODEST RATES AT TIMES WHEREVER THAT WEST-TO-EAST BAROCLINIC GRADIENT OF THE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS. HAVE 1-2.5 INCHES FORECAST FOR A LOT OF THE AREA. HOW MUCH A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY GETS INVOLVED WEDNESDAY WILL BE KEY AS WELL...AS THAT COULD BOOST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. ALSO OF NOTE IS POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SETUP ONCE AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR NORTHEAST IL. MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS MORNING WOULD POINT TOWARD NOT AS GOOD OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNS OF CONVERGENCE AND BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER RH...AND FOR THAT HAVE CONTINUED POPS ACROSS CHICAGO INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MTF THURSDAY AND BEYOND... LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH/LOW TEMPS...WITH LOW CHANCE POSSIBILITIES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. GENERAL WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT QPF. ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO VARY WITH THE STRENGTH OF A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND THEN IS A TAD MORE BULLISH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP. NONETHELESS...WHATEVER DEVELOPS SHOULD BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND QUICKLY EXIT...AND WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. PATTERN TRIES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WHILE SHOWING SIGNS OF SLIGHT WARMING...AS LARGE SCALE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE LARGE VORT MAX SHIFTS EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. TAIL END OF THIS ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AS WINDS BACK AND WAA OCCURS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THEN POSSIBLE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT MOVE OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...THIS WARMING WILL BE BRIEF AS COLDER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. RODRIGUEZ && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW PRE-DAWN THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. * ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...BEGINNING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. KREIN //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10KT. BY TOMORROW EVENING A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TOMORROW EVENING AND WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY...BUT STILL LESS THAN 10KT. OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED IMPULSE CROSSING IOWA AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH INTO NWRN IL BY ARND 08Z. THE LOWEST LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY...SO ANY SNOW MAY INITIALLY BE VERY LIGHT AND CIGS SHOULD BE SLOW TO LOWER. GIVEN THE DRY AIR THAT THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...STILL ANTICIPATE THAT PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN LOWER END VFR...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION IN FAST NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER...WITH HAVE BETTER SFC SUPPORT WITH SOME LIFT INVOF THE WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD SET UP. AT THIS POINT...WILL INTRODUCE A PROB30 FOR SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT. HOWEVER...WOULD ANTICIPATE RAMPING UP THE IMPACT OF THE SNOW AS DETAILS BECOME A BIT MORE CERTAIN...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE PREVAILING LOWER END MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. KREIN //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS. * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AND RESULTING CIG/VIS IMPACTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ONSET OF SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. KREIN //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z... WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN VFR. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SUNDAY...VFR. RATZER && .MARINE... 227 PM CST BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS ALL OF LAKE MI THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND HELP TO BRING A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER ONTARIO...HOWEVER A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WINDS A TAD TO 10 TO 20 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. FURTHER SOUTH THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING OF THE LAKE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING BACK ACROSS THE LAKE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATED WITH A GENERAL TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 20 KT. BEACHLER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1111 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2014 ...Updated aviation discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 142 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014 Tonight: Some mid to high level clouds will continue tonight in association with a jet streak passing off to the southeast. Southerly winds will become SSW/SW after midnight. The downslope winds should lead to higher minimums for much of the region, except over deeper snowpack. Calling for mid to upper 20sF by Elkhart to upper single digits to lower teens across the deeper snowpack (generally along and east of Highway 183). Tomorrow: The HRRR is suggesting fog formation tonight, but this is different than what the WRF is suggesting. Think the model fields might be too heavily influenced by the model snowpack. If fog does develop, it will be patchy. Lee troughing will continue tomorrow. Downslope, compressional warming is expected ahead of a frontal boundary. This front will traverse the region after my short-term period ends. A fairly impressive gradient of maximum temperatures is expected across the forecast area of responsibility. Low 60sF will be possible across the western zones, where the warmest 850 hPa temperatures are expected along with the strongest downslope wind component. Have undercut temperature guidance farther east across the heavier snowpack areas, where low 40sF are possible for highs. Any precipitation will remain outside of my period. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) ISSUED AT 148 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014 This extended period will be dominated by a two different upper level troughs passing through, one on Tuesday night and Wednesday, and the other one on Friday night and Saturday. In the nearer term, Tuesday night should be cold with lows in the mid 20s in the Hays and LaCrosse areas, ranging to the mid 30s down down in our southwest corner near Elkhart. I think the front will be in the I-70 corridor about midnight, with some overrunning precipitation beginning by midnight, in the form of snow and/or sleet. Forecast sounding from nearly every model shows a warm tongue aloft, for the early part of the event. The front will spill southward through Southwestern and South Central Kansas on Wednesday, and most of the rest of our forecast area will see some snow/sleet early Wednesday, changing over to rain by late morning. The dynamics will be stronger to our north, so 20 to 30 percent precipitation chances will suffice for us. Only light QPF amounts are expected, generally less than 0.03 inch liquid, and perhaps up to a half inch of snow in any particular location. Wednesday`s high temperatures Will range from 39F in Hays to 52F in Johnson City. Wednesday night through Friday will see some warming, with the coolest highs across any accumulation of snow. Wednesday night minimum temperatures will still be similar to mins Wednesday morning, in the mid 20s to lower 30s. There will be a quick warm up Thursday with southwest surface winds. Maximum temperatures in the southwest corner near Ulysses and Elkhart will rise into the lower to middle 60s, while the east sections from Ellis to Comanche Counties will only top out in the lower to middle 50s. There will be some advance clouds moving in Friday, which will knock down maximum temperatures Friday into the upper 40s north of I-70, ranging to near 60F down south along the Oklahoma border. As an upper wave moves into the plains Friday night, a cold front will dive southeast from Wyoming. This will bring another round of snow or rain to Southwest Kansas Friday Night and Saturday. I did lower some of the 50% Pops from the AllBlend model to 30 and 40 percent, to better match our neighbor`s grids. Friday night will see a cool down in low temperatures, dropping to the mid 20s to lower 30s. Saturday should be significantly colder, with the clouds and precipitation around. Highs should only reach the middle 40s to near 50F on Saturday. Sunday looks mostly sunny and considerably warmer, with max temps in the upper 50s near Larned and the middle 60s in the Syracuse area. Sunday will be sunny and even warmer with max temps in the middle 60s across the forecast area. Minimum temperatures both Saturday and Sunday mornings will average in the 25F to 30F degree range. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014 A trough of low pressure will slide east into extreme western Kansas today as a cold front moves south into Nebraska. Surface winds just east of this surface boundary will continue from the south/southwest at around 10 knots. Based on expected low level wind speeds and direction overnight, IFR visibilities and/or ceilings are not anticipated. Will however keep a period of MVFR visibilities possible between 09z and 14z. VFR conditions are expected today. High level cloud cover will increase by late day across all of western Kansas as an upper level disturbance approaches the area from the west. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 17 49 27 44 / 0 0 10 30 GCK 18 56 28 46 / 0 0 10 30 EHA 27 62 33 52 / 0 0 10 20 LBL 20 57 30 50 / 0 0 10 20 HYS 12 45 25 39 / 0 0 20 40 P28 9 40 25 42 / 0 0 10 30 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sugden LONG TERM...Burke AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
946 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 1234 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014 A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS WEEK. LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TO BEGIN THE WEEK IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH A ZONAL TO SUBTLE LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST...PLACING OUR REGION IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. BELOW THIS...WILL SEE WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST TOMORROW. LATE TOMORROW A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. TODAY...MORNING BEGAN QUITE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH AT A FEW SITES. CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY DISSIPATE. MODEL OUTPUT FROM GFS AND NAM ESPECIALLY GENERALLY NOT USEFUL FOR NEAR SURFACE PARAMETERS DUE TO SNOW DEPTH BEING INITIALIZED MUCH TOO DEEP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. RAP DOES NOT SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM THIS...SO LEANED TOWARDS RAP/ECMWF FOR TEMPS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHERE THERE IS SNOW AND SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES TEMPS HAVE BEEN MUCH COLDER...BUT ELSEWHERE A PLEASANT AND WARMER DAY AFTER A BITTER COLD WEEKEND. TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND 850MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO RISE WILL MAKE FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH...LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN A FEW SPOTS. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN PARTS OF ADJACENT COLORADO/KANSAS COUNTIES GENERALLY BASED OFF OF THE RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TRENDS. THOUGH BELIEVE SOME OF THE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SREF/NAM ARE DUE TO SNOW FIELD...WITH RAP ALSO HINTING AT A GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. MUCH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WINDS...AND IF WINDS REMAIN UP AROUND 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT MIGHT NOT SEE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WHATSOEVER. WEDNESDAY...SUNNY AND WARM FOR THE MOST PART. HIGHS APPROACHING 60 IN MOST SPOTS AS 850MB TEMPS REACH AROUND 10C...WITH ECMWF AND GEM GOING EVEN WARMER. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014 TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING...QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING. QUICKER END OF GUIDANCE ACTUALLY BRINGS FRONT IN A LITTLE EARLIER (POSSIBLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON)...THOUGH THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THESE PERIODS. CAA IS FAIRLY WEAK BEHIND THIS FRONT AND BEST COOLING MODELS ARE SHOWING IS WITH PRECIP BAND (LIKELY DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES). CURRENT MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE (AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT) MOVING OVER OUR CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WED MORNING. MODEL QPF FIELDS GENERALLY MATCH ON TIMING ON AREA OF PRECIP MOVING OVER OUR CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO I TRENDED POPS UP DURING THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD...AND QUICKLY ENDED POPS DURING THE WED MORNING PERIOD. REGARDING PRECIP TYPE...VERY LITTLE E-SE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO IM NOT SEEING A LOT OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. A FEW SOUNDINGS TRY TO SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION IN OUR SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER WITH VERY BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE NW FLOW OVERTAKES REGION OR MAIN AREA OF PRECIP MOVES IN IM NOT SEEING THIS BEING WORTH A MENTION. WHILE INITIALLY THERE IS A WARM LAYER...SATURATION ABOVE THIS LAYER WILL OCCUR WHEN MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVES IN AND TEMPERATURE (AND BY THAT POINT WEAK CAA/EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES HAVE REMOVED THIS WARM LAYER FROM THE EQUATION)...SO SLEET IS UNLIKELY. PROFILES GENERALLY SHOW CLEAN RAIN-SNOW TRANSITION WITH MINIMAL CAA IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO I WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED FZDZ/FZRA AND LEFT TYPE AS RAIN/SNOW. DUE TO RELIANCE ON EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES FOR RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY. CURRENT GUIDANCE AND FORECAST TIMING GENERALLY SHOWS SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE (FAIRLY WET AND SLUSHY). WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT ALLOWING FOR QUICK RETURN OF MILD TEMPS/DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM UP CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY WITH MEX/ECE SHOWING HIGHS AROUND 70F. H85 TEMPS GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MID 60S-LOW 70S (DEPENDING ON WHICH END OF GUIDANCE YOU CHOOSE) USING STANDARD BIAS. I TRENDED TEMPS UP ACROSS THE CWA TO UPPER 60S THURSDAY...AND COULD STILL BE A LITTLE LOW COMPARED TO WARMER END OF GUIDANCE. FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...NEXT QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS BACK TO OUR CWA. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON OVERALL TRENDS/CONSENSUS. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WHILE THERE IS RUN-RUN MODEL SPREAD DURING THESE PERIODS...GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGING (OF SOME FLAVOR) AND DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 929 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND THEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER BOTH TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS. KGLD HAD WIND SPEEDS A BIT HIGHER THE PREVIOUS FEW HOURS...BUT SPEEDS ARE NOW AT 5 KTS. WINDS ARE A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE TONIGHT CONSIDERING NOTHING UPSTREAM SEEMED TO CAUSE THE SPEEDS THAT KGLD HAD THE LAST FEW HOURS. ALSO...KLBF AND KOGA CURRENTLY HAVE CALM WINDS AND FOG DEVELOPING. DEPENDING ON WHETHER THIS TRANSFERS TO KMCK...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP KMCK VFR BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MVFR CONDITIONS SNUCK IN THERE FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE THE TIMING DOWN ON WHEN THAT MIGHT HAPPEN AND MODEL GUIDANCE AND SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY HELPFUL AT THE PRESENT TIME SO LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD SEEMED FAIRLY REASONABLE TO GET A HANDLE ON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TOMORROW BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AND WILL BECOME GUSTY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS...TOWARDS EVENING. AROUND 03Z LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO BOTH TAF SITES...WITH FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 5SM WITH FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS SEEMED TO ALL AGREE WITH THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THIS EVENT HAPPENING. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJM LONG TERM...DR AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014 .UPDATE... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM AS WAS EARLIER CONFIGURED. TEMPERATURES HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. 12Z RUN OF HRRR INDICATED A BACK EDGE TO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THE ADVISORY AREA THAT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA AROUND 21Z. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB A FEW DEGREES AS PRECIPITATION ENDS. && .AVIATION... WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN PLACE...AND DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE MENTION OF -FZRA IN KMCB AND KBTR FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO PLAIN -RA OR ENDS. 35 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/ SOUNDING DISCUSSION... THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS MORNING. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT KLIX INDICATED A STRONG INVERSION PRESENT BETWEEN 950 AND 850 MB. TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING UP TO ABOUT 940 MB...AND THEN ABOVE FREEZING FROM THIS LEVEL TO 645 MB. THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WAS NEARLY SATURATED BELOW THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AND IN THE 600 TO 525 MB LAYER. THERE WAS A SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 MB AND 650 MB. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS 0.75 INCH...UP FROM 0.38 INCH YESTERDAY EVENING. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WERE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THOSE LEVELS. 11 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/ UPDATE... HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR AN AREA ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM TYLERTOWN TO BATON ROUGE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SPREADING PRECIPITATION EASTWARD A LITTLE FASTER THAN WAS THAN THOUGHT EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS UPDATE BRINGS OUR FORECAST AND ASSOCIATED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MORE IN LINE WITH ADJACENT WEATHER OFFICES. SHORT TERM... AS THE RAIN FALLS THROUGH THE COLD DRY AIR...EVAPORATION COOLING OF THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS PRODUCING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SLEET THIS MORNING. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH MAINLY ON ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES. DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...BLUE. DEPLOYED...SWERV AND TWO METS FOR MARDI GRAS SUPPORT IN NEW ORLEANS. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ALONG PEARL RIVER. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 35 33 58 41 / 80 40 10 40 BTR 36 34 57 40 / 90 40 10 30 ASD 40 38 58 45 / 100 60 20 30 MSY 41 38 58 48 / 100 60 20 30 GPT 42 41 60 48 / 100 70 20 30 PQL 42 40 59 47 / 100 80 20 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...POINTE COUPEE...ST. HELENA...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA. GM...NONE. MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AMITE...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1257 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WHAT`S LEFT OF THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER NRN QUEBEC SHEARING EASTWARD AND WITH IT...THE CORE OF THE BITTER COLD AIR. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROF LINGERS OVER THE ERN CONUS WHILE TO THE W...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXTENDS OFF THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE WRN CONUS. SHORTWAVE THAT WAS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES 24HRS AGO IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAIN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM HAS PASSED S OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET STREAK HAS ASSISTED IN SPREADING -SN ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT. WITH CLOUDS/-SN...TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS...A GOOD 30 DEGREES HIGHER IN SOME CASES. THERE ARE NO SUBZERO READINGS TO BE FOUND THIS MORNING. PER RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD -SN WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ESE AND WILL END W TO E DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH A FEW -SHSN/FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTN CNTRL AND E ALONG LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED WIND SHIFT. WITH INCREASING SUN ANGLE...WE`RE GETTING INTO THE TIME OF YEAR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DIURNAL -SHSN DEVELOPMENT. HIGHRES RAPID REFRESH IS PARTICULARLY NOTABLE WITH AFTN -SHSN IT DEVELOPS ALONG WIND SHIFT. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS N TO LOWER 20S S. AS WINDS SHIFT OFF ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS MAY FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG THE LAKE IN THE AFTN. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATOCU OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT UNLESS THE N TO NE WINDS OPEN UP SUFFICIENT WATER/BKN ICE ON THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE LAKE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S AND W IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE THRU THE DAKOTAS/MN. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER NRN ONTARIO...PRES GRADIENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP DURING THE NIGHT AND PREVENT TEMPS FROM CRASHING. ON THE OTHER HAND...VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA (PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO 15-25PCT OF NORMAL...LOWEST OVER THE E). WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ADVECTING SHALLOW VERY COLD AIR S AND W OFF ONTARIO AND ACROSS NEARLY COMPLETELY FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR...FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY COLUMN. ALTHOUGH FCST MINS RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO THE LOWER -TEENS...TEMPS IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS COULD FALL TOWARD -20F IF SKIES END UP MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE COMPLETELY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 QUIET LONG TERM CONTINUES. MAIN FEATURES TO NOTE WILL BE LIGHT SNOWFALL CHANCES LATE THU INTO FRI AND WARMER AIRMASS LATE THIS WEEK AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO MOVE WELL N OF THE CWA LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 06Z FRI AND 18Z FRI. WHILE THE FRONT WILL HELP FORCE SOME PRECIP...THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE A SECONDARY WAVE THAT MODELS SHOW CATCHING UP TO WITH AND MOVING WITH THE FRONT AS IS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT AND MINOR SNOW OVER WRN UPPER MI THU...BUT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z FRI. AT THIS POINT...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE PRETTY RAPIDLY ON WED FROM A RANGE OF -15C TO -20C AT 12Z WED TO AROUND -11C BY 00Z THU WITH SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. GIVEN A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TUE NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO AND THAT MODELS INDICATE MIXING TO ONLY AOB 900MB...HIGH TEMPS ON WED WILL ONLY RANGE FROM 10F-20F...WARMEST NEAR THE WI BORDER. AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES TO THE CENTRAL CWA AROUND 00Z FRI WITH 850MB TEMP APPROACHING 0C AS THE RIDGE PASSES. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 850MB WINDS UP TO 45KTS...LEADING TO SFC GUSTS UP TO 25KTS OR HIGHER. INCREASED HIGHS ON THU TO 20F-30F...BUT COULD SEE HIGHS ABOVE 30 OVER WRN UPPER MI. FRI SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30...WARMEST OVER SCENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE AS EARLY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI...850MB TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN TO THE -10C TO -15C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS THEN INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LIMITED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 EXPECT ANY LINGERING DIURNAL STRATOCU TO DISSIPATE OVER THE TAF SITES BY EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER UNDER BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. NEARLY COMPLETELY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD VIRTUALLY ELIMINATE STRATOCU FORMATION UNDER DEVELOPING NE FLOW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 EXPECT WINDS TODAY MOSTLY UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO...EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. WHILE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT WINDS BEHIND TROF...WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER FRI INTO SAT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
635 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WHAT`S LEFT OF THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER NRN QUEBEC SHEARING EASTWARD AND WITH IT...THE CORE OF THE BITTER COLD AIR. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROF LINGERS OVER THE ERN CONUS WHILE TO THE W...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXTENDS OFF THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE WRN CONUS. SHORTWAVE THAT WAS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES 24HRS AGO IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAIN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM HAS PASSED S OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET STREAK HAS ASSISTED IN SPREADING -SN ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT. WITH CLOUDS/-SN...TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS...A GOOD 30 DEGREES HIGHER IN SOME CASES. THERE ARE NO SUBZERO READINGS TO BE FOUND THIS MORNING. PER RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD -SN WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ESE AND WILL END W TO E DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH A FEW -SHSN/FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTN CNTRL AND E ALONG LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED WIND SHIFT. WITH INCREASING SUN ANGLE...WE`RE GETTING INTO THE TIME OF YEAR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DIURNAL -SHSN DEVELOPMENT. HIGHRES RAPID REFRESH IS PARTICULARLY NOTABLE WITH AFTN -SHSN IT DEVELOPS ALONG WIND SHIFT. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS N TO LOWER 20S S. AS WINDS SHIFT OFF ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS MAY FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG THE LAKE IN THE AFTN. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATOCU OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT UNLESS THE N TO NE WINDS OPEN UP SUFFICIENT WATER/BKN ICE ON THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE LAKE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S AND W IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE THRU THE DAKOTAS/MN. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER NRN ONTARIO...PRES GRADIENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP DURING THE NIGHT AND PREVENT TEMPS FROM CRASHING. ON THE OTHER HAND...VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA (PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO 15-25PCT OF NORMAL...LOWEST OVER THE E). WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ADVECTING SHALLOW VERY COLD AIR S AND W OFF ONTARIO AND ACROSS NEARLY COMPLETELY FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR...FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY COLUMN. ALTHOUGH FCST MINS RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO THE LOWER -TEENS...TEMPS IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS COULD FALL TOWARD -20F IF SKIES END UP MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE COMPLETELY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 QUIET LONG TERM CONTINUES. MAIN FEATURES TO NOTE WILL BE LIGHT SNOWFALL CHANCES LATE THU INTO FRI AND WARMER AIRMASS LATE THIS WEEK AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO MOVE WELL N OF THE CWA LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 06Z FRI AND 18Z FRI. WHILE THE FRONT WILL HELP FORCE SOME PRECIP...THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE A SECONDARY WAVE THAT MODELS SHOW CATCHING UP TO WITH AND MOVING WITH THE FRONT AS IS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT AND MINOR SNOW OVER WRN UPPER MI THU...BUT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z FRI. AT THIS POINT...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE PRETTY RAPIDLY ON WED FROM A RANGE OF -15C TO -20C AT 12Z WED TO AROUND -11C BY 00Z THU WITH SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. GIVEN A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TUE NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO AND THAT MODELS INDICATE MIXING TO ONLY AOB 900MB...HIGH TEMPS ON WED WILL ONLY RANGE FROM 10F-20F...WARMEST NEAR THE WI BORDER. AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES TO THE CENTRAL CWA AROUND 00Z FRI WITH 850MB TEMP APPROACHING 0C AS THE RIDGE PASSES. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 850MB WINDS UP TO 45KTS...LEADING TO SFC GUSTS UP TO 25KTS OR HIGHER. INCREASED HIGHS ON THU TO 20F-30F...BUT COULD SEE HIGHS ABOVE 30 OVER WRN UPPER MI. FRI SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30...WARMEST OVER SCENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE AS EARLY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI...850MB TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN TO THE -10C TO -15C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS THEN INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LIMITED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 634 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE REGION WILL END W TO E THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE RULE AT KIWD/KCMX INTO THE EARLY AFTN. AT KSAW...DEVELOPING UPSLOPE NORTHERLY WIND MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH LAKE SUPERIOR NEARLY COMPLETELY ICE COVERED...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATOCU OFF THE LAKE...AND WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE HIGH...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 EXPECT WINDS TODAY MOSTLY UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO...EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. WHILE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT WINDS BEHIND TROF...WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER FRI INTO SAT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
506 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WHAT`S LEFT OF THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER NRN QUEBEC SHEARING EASTWARD AND WITH IT...THE CORE OF THE BITTER COLD AIR. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROF LINGERS OVER THE ERN CONUS WHILE TO THE W...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXTENDS OFF THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE WRN CONUS. SHORTWAVE THAT WAS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES 24HRS AGO IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAIN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM HAS PASSED S OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET STREAK HAS ASSISTED IN SPREADING -SN ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT. WITH CLOUDS/-SN...TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS...A GOOD 30 DEGREES HIGHER IN SOME CASES. THERE ARE NO SUBZERO READINGS TO BE FOUND THIS MORNING. PER RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD -SN WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ESE AND WILL END W TO E DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH A FEW -SHSN/FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTN CNTRL AND E ALONG LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED WIND SHIFT. WITH INCREASING SUN ANGLE...WE`RE GETTING INTO THE TIME OF YEAR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DIURNAL -SHSN DEVELOPMENT. HIGHRES RAPID REFRESH IS PARTICULARLY NOTABLE WITH AFTN -SHSN IT DEVELOPS ALONG WIND SHIFT. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS N TO LOWER 20S S. AS WINDS SHIFT OFF ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS MAY FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG THE LAKE IN THE AFTN. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATOCU OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT UNLESS THE N TO NE WINDS OPEN UP SUFFICIENT WATER/BKN ICE ON THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE LAKE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S AND W IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE THRU THE DAKOTAS/MN. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER NRN ONTARIO...PRES GRADIENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP DURING THE NIGHT AND PREVENT TEMPS FROM CRASHING. ON THE OTHER HAND...VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA (PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO 15-25PCT OF NORMAL...LOWEST OVER THE E). WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ADVECTING SHALLOW VERY COLD AIR S AND W OFF ONTARIO AND ACROSS NEARLY COMPLETELY FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR...FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY COLUMN. ALTHOUGH FCST MINS RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO THE LOWER -TEENS...TEMPS IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS COULD FALL TOWARD -20F IF SKIES END UP MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE COMPLETELY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 QUIET LONG TERM CONTINUES. MAIN FEATURES TO NOTE WILL BE LIGHT SNOWFALL CHANCES LATE THU INTO FRI AND WARMER AIRMASS LATE THIS WEEK AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO MOVE WELL N OF THE CWA LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 06Z FRI AND 18Z FRI. WHILE THE FRONT WILL HELP FORCE SOME PRECIP...THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE A SECONDARY WAVE THAT MODELS SHOW CATCHING UP TO WITH AND MOVING WITH THE FRONT AS IS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT AND MINOR SNOW OVER WRN UPPER MI THU...BUT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z FRI. AT THIS POINT...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE PRETTY RAPIDLY ON WED FROM A RANGE OF -15C TO -20C AT 12Z WED TO AROUND -11C BY 00Z THU WITH SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. GIVEN A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TUE NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO AND THAT MODELS INDICATE MIXING TO ONLY AOB 900MB...HIGH TEMPS ON WED WILL ONLY RANGE FROM 10F-20F...WARMEST NEAR THE WI BORDER. AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES TO THE CENTRAL CWA AROUND 00Z FRI WITH 850MB TEMP APPROACHING 0C AS THE RIDGE PASSES. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 850MB WINDS UP TO 45KTS...LEADING TO SFC GUSTS UP TO 25KTS OR HIGHER. INCREASED HIGHS ON THU TO 20F-30F...BUT COULD SEE HIGHS ABOVE 30 OVER WRN UPPER MI. FRI SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30...WARMEST OVER SCENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE AS EARLY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI...850MB TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN TO THE -10C TO -15C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS THEN INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LIMITED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. IFR VSBY WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT CMX BUT ALSO BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AT KIWD/KCMX. EXPECT THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MVFR CIGS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR AT IWD/CMX IN THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 EXPECT WINDS TODAY MOSTLY UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO...EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KT. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. WHILE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT WINDS BEHIND TROF...WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER FRI INTO SAT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...JLB MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
420 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROF EXTENDING W INTO WRN CANADA...ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS...BUT THE COLD IS MODERATING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLOSER TO -15C TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...REBOUNDING FROM BITTER COLD LOW TEMPS LAST NIGHT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE 280-285K LAYER AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL MN AS NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. THIS SNOW IS FCST TO SPREAD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE PROGGED BY 12Z MODELS TO DIVE SE OVER SRN/CNTRL WI...THE BEST AND LONGEST SUSTAINED DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WI BORDER COUNTIES AND ALONG THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE S (LIKELY) WITH LOWER CHC POPS TO THE NW ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG AVBL PER 280K SFC (ROUGHLY 730MB) AND 6HRS OR SO OF -SN...EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH NORTH TO PERHAPS 1-2INCHES FAR SCNTRL...CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS EXPECTED...TEMPS AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BLO 0F TONIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC BEST FORCING SLIDE SE OF THE AREA WITH LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OVER THE ERN COUNTIES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM SCNTRL CANADA WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION (8H TEMPS DOWN TO -18C) ON TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY FROM LOWER TO MID TEENS NORTH TO UPPER TEENS SOUTH UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 QUIET LONG TERM CONTINUES. MAIN FEATURES TO NOTE WILL BE LIGHT SNOWFALL CHANCES LATE THU INTO FRI AND WARMER AIRMASS LATE THIS WEEK AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO MOVE WELL N OF THE CWA LATE THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 06Z FRI AND 18Z FRI. WHILE THE FRONT WILL HELP FORCE SOME PRECIP...THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE A SECONDARY WAVE THAT MODELS SHOW CATCHING UP TO WITH AND MOVING WITH THE FRONT AS IS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT AND MINOR SNOW OVER WRN UPPER MI THU...BUT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z FRI. AT THIS POINT...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE PRETTY RAPIDLY ON WED FROM A RANGE OF -15C TO -20C AT 12Z WED TO AROUND -11C BY 00Z THU WITH SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. GIVEN A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TUE NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO AND THAT MODELS INDICATE MIXING TO ONLY AOB 900MB...HIGH TEMPS ON WED WILL ONLY RANGE FROM 10F-20F...WARMEST NEAR THE WI BORDER. AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES TO THE CENTRAL CWA AROUND 00Z FRI WITH 850MB TEMP APPROACHING 0C AS THE RIDGE PASSES. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 850MB WINDS UP TO 45KTS...LEADING TO SFC GUSTS UP TO 25KTS OR HIGHER. INCREASED HIGHS ON THU TO 20F-30F...BUT COULD SEE HIGHS ABOVE 30 OVER WRN UPPER MI. FRI SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30...WARMEST OVER SCENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE AS EARLY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI...850MB TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN TO THE -10C TO -15C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS THEN INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LIMITED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. IFR VSBY WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT CMX BUT ALSO BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AT KIWD/KCMX. EXPECT THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MVFR CIGS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR AT IWD/CMX IN THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 328 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014 A SFC TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TUE...WILL RESULT IN A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU TUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...JLB MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1230 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROF EXTENDING W INTO WRN CANADA...ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS...BUT THE COLD IS MODERATING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLOSER TO -15C TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...REBOUNDING FROM BITTER COLD LOW TEMPS LAST NIGHT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE 280-285K LAYER AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL MN AS NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. THIS SNOW IS FCST TO SPREAD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE PROGGED BY 12Z MODELS TO DIVE SE OVER SRN/CNTRL WI...THE BEST AND LONGEST SUSTAINED DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WI BORDER COUNTIES AND ALONG THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE S (LIKELY) WITH LOWER CHC POPS TO THE NW ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG AVBL PER 280K SFC (ROUGHLY 730MB) AND 6HRS OR SO OF -SN...EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH NORTH TO PERHAPS 1-2INCHES FAR SCNTRL...CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS EXPECTED...TEMPS AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BLO 0F TONIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC BEST FORCING SLIDE SE OF THE AREA WITH LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OVER THE ERN COUNTIES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM SCNTRL CANADA WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION (8H TEMPS DOWN TO -18C) ON TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY FROM LOWER TO MID TEENS NORTH TO UPPER TEENS SOUTH UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014 OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODIS IMAGERY OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS INDICATES LAKE SUPERIOR IS NEARLY ICED OVER...SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL DON/T EXPECT MUCH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. TUESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK SHORTWAVES...WITH THE ONE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE SHIFTING EAST AND THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE DAKOTAS. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH TRAJECTORY AS THE TUESDAY MORNING WAVE...BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PULL DRIER AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MICHIGAN AND LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATING IT BEING SHALLOW...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST AND MAINLY INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH INFLUENCE WITH THIS WAVE...ESPECIALLY WITH A MOSTLY FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN EASTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO VARY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING...SHOULD SEE A QUICK FALL IN TEMPS BEFORE RETURN FLOW TRIES TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SINCE PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE EVENING...DID LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BASED OFF THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS ON HAVING LOWS IN THE -5 TO -10 DEGREE RANGE. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASUREABLE SNOW IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE IS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE THAT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AND ACROSS THE U.P. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SNOW. WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS...WILL TREND POPS UP IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND THINK SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY (FROM A HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS) AND WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH LAKE SUPERIOR PRETTY MUCH FROZEN OVER. THERE ARE HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY DRY...WOULDN/T EXPECT MORE THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT) WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA. AS FOR HIGHS...VALUES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BUT WARMER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY. 850MB TEMPS STAY IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO MOST OF THE WEEK AND LIMITS HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 20S LATE IN THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. SOME OF THE THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (AROUND 40 PERCENT) DO SHOW TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME FOR MOST OF THE CWA SINCE FEB 21ST. 12Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS AROUND FREEZING ON MONDAY...SO WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. IFR VSBY WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT CMX BUT ALSO BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AT KIWD/KCMX. EXPECT THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MVFR CIGS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR AT IWD/CMX IN THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 328 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014 A SFC TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TUE...WILL RESULT IN A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU TUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
857 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 854 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST...CONTINUE TO THINK WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL...SO WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED DOWN LATEST FORECAST LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES TO COME IN BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH 01Z RAP GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA...ONLY MAXING OUT AT AROUND 55KTS NEAR 28000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AS WELL AS INCREASED MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC ALONG THE MID LEVEL JET AXIS. ALL THAT BEING SAID...MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY LACKING. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS FROM THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT. GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL SUGGEST MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A RESULTANT LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND SUCH CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA BY 06Z...WITH THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WHEN COMPARE TO LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD THEN PROMOTE A WARMER DAY ON THURSDAY WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S CURRENTLY FORECAST. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS LIE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE START AND END OF THE PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES. THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE CWA SITS UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST AND A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COAST. DURING THE THURS EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT THAT WESTERN CONUS DISTURBANCE IS THE FEATURE OF INTEREST...AS IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...AND TOGETHER WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...LOOK TO RESULT IN A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES N/NE TOWARD ONTARIO BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY PRESENT THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CWA...AND OVERALL THERE HASNT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...NOT BAD AGREEMENT BUT THERE REMAIN DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT. ONE OF THE FIRST QUESTIONS THAT ARISES IS WHEN DOES PRECIP ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA...MOST MODELS ARE TRENDED TOWARD THE POTENTIAL CREEPING INTO FAR NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY..WITH THE ECMWF ON THE SLOWER SIDE. DECIDED TO INSERT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP PRIOR TO 18Z...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SC NEB...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR KS POST 00Z...THOUGH HOW MUCH WILL LINGER INTO THAT PERIOD REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. DID BUMP UP POPS...MAINLY IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CWA ALREADY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MODEL TIMING NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE FRONT IN A SW/NE ORIENTATION ROUGHLY HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRUCKING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE CWA NEAR MIDDAY...USHERING IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE REGION. SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH EXPECTED. WITH COLDER AIR ALSO ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH...THINKING THAT HIGHS FOR THE DAY /CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH/ WILL BE MET EARLY ON...PERHAPS NEAR MIDDAY...WITH STEADY/FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION TYPE CERTAINLY ISNT CLEAR CUT AT THIS POINT...WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED TO START OFF...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM N TO S...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING IS NOT HIGH. AT THIS POINT THINKING THAT THE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY SNOW. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO...THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW /OR LACK OF/ IS OBVIOUSLY GOING TO PLAY A BIG PART...BUT AT THIS POINT HAVE TOTALS IN THE HALF INCH TO 1 INCH RANGE. HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BETTER FORCING HAVING SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...AND IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO GET THE COLDER AIR OUT...SO HIGHS ON SATURDAY CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID 30S EAST /CLOSER TO THE SFC HIGH/ AND MID 40S FURTHER WEST /WHERE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS STARTING TO WORK IN/. THEN COMES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...THESE TWO DAYS ARE THE WARMEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME BROAD RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BRINGING ALONG A NICE INCREASE IN TEMPS ALOFT /PERHAPS UP TO 15C AT 850MB/. COMBINED WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SW/WRLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING WITH THE WINDS...HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS IN THE FORECAST. A READING NEAR 70 NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE SW...BUT NOT GOING QUITE THAT HIGH YET. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS TO SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE PLAINS. SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH TIMING/LOCATION...SO DIDNT GO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS BOTH DAYS IS NOT HIGH...IF THE SYSTEM STAYS CLOSER TO THE LATEST ECMWF RUN...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED. PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 545 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR STRATUS HAS FINALLY ERODED NEAR THE TERMINAL...AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL STREAM EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 25KFT TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING EAST...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY GUSTING TO NEAR 26KTS AFT 06/18Z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ROSSI SHORT TERM...BRYANT LONG TERM...ADO AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
808 AM PST TUE MAR 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. && .UPDATE...FORCING FROM PASSING JET STREAK WANING RAPIDLY, WITH RADAR RETURNS DRYING UP AND CLOUDS BREAKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. UPDATED TO DRASTICALLY REDUCE RAIN/SNOW COVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, AS 12Z NAM/GFS AGREE THAT VERY LITTLE RAIN OR SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. DRIER MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL FILTER IN THIS AFTERNOON, UNDER INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. REDUCED CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON, AND STILL EXPECTING MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S AREA WIDE. WHATEVER SNOW IS ON THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS WON`T BE HERE LONG. TURNER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 557 AM / SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL BE HERE FOR FRIDAY. UPDATE...SPOTTER REPORTS FROM SPRING CREEK...AS WELL AS WEBCAMS AT LAMOILLE AND PEQUOP SUMMITS...ARE SHOWING SNOW FALLING IN THESE LOCATIONS. ROADS ARE SLUSHY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF INCH OR SO IN SPRING CREEK/LAMOILLE SUMMIT. EMIGRANT AND PEQUOP SUMMITS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR SO...WITH THE SUMMIT LOCATIONS RECEIVING 1 TO 3 INCHES. SPRING CREEK AND LAMOILLE SUMMIT SHOULD SEE ABOUT AN INCH OR SO. ALSO 3KM HRRR IS SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEVADA LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FOR OTHER ELEMENTS...GRIDS THIS MORNING WERE REFRESHED TO INCLUDE A LOWER SNOW LEVEL IN NORTHEAST NEVADA...ALONG WITH UPDATED SNOW AMOUNT AND RELATED GRIDS. TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 240 AM / SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS STARTING TO SHIFT EASTWARD PER THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE PRETTY ROBUST WITH READINGS OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES COMMON IN HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN ELKO COUNTIES. FOR THE MOST PART...SNOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE AROUND THE 6500 FOOT RANGE. AS MENTIONED...THE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLOW MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THE MORNING. IT IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE EXITTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY...MAKING WAY FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. 700 MB WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO 2 TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY. LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. EURO/GFS/DGEX/GEM IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN DIFFERENCES EMERGE ON MONDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AS 700MB TEMPS DROP TO -6 TO -8C ON FRIDAY MORNING ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW...AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OR HEADLINES AS MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AHEAD OF COLDER AIR...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH PW`S NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THURSDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED...GUIDANCE AS WELL AS 90 AGL WINDS SHOW 30 TO 40 KNOTS NEAR COLD FRONT. FRIDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BUT LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT INSTABILITY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH 700 TEMPS OF -8 ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SATURDAY A STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 7000 FEET OR HIGHER. MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...SO ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND SKY FOR MONDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AT KWMC...KEKO AND KELY. RAIN SHOULD END BY LATER THIS MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH A 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS/VIS. ALSO A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OF A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KELY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
557 AM PST TUE MAR 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL BE HERE FOR FRIDAY. && .UPDATE...SPOTTER REPORTS FROM SPRING CREEK...AS WELL AS WEBCAMS AT LAMOILLE AND PEQUOP SUMMITS...ARE SHOWING SNOW FALLING IN THESE LOCATIONS. ROADS ARE SLUSHY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF INCH OR SO IN SPRING CREEK/LAMOILLE SUMMIT. EMIGRANT AND PEQUOP SUMMITS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR SO...WITH THE SUMMIT LOCATIONS RECEIVING 1 TO 3 INCHES. SPRING CREEK AND LAMOILLE SUMMIT SHOULD SEE ABOUT AN INCH OR SO. ALSO 3KM HRRR IS SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEVADA LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FOR OTHER ELEMENTS...GRIDS THIS MORNING WERE REFRESHED TO INCLUDE A LOWER SNOW LEVEL IN NORTHEAST NEVADA...ALONG WITH UPDATED SNOW AMOUNT AND RELATED GRIDS. TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 240 AM / SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS STARTING TO SHIFT EASTWARD PER THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE PRETTY ROBUST WITH READINGS OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES COMMON IN HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN ELKO COUNTIES. FOR THE MOST PART...SNOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE AROUND THE 6500 FOOT RANGE. AS MENTIONED...THE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLOW MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THE MORNING. IT IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE EXITTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY...MAKING WAY FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. 700 MB WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO 2 TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY. LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. EURO/GFS/DGEX/GEM IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN DIFFERENCES EMERGE ON MONDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AS 700MB TEMPS DROP TO -6 TO -8C ON FRIDAY MORNING ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW...AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OR HEADLINES AS MOST PRECIP WILL FALL AHEAD OF COLDER AIR...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH PW`S NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THURSDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED...GUIDANCE AS WELL AS 90 AGL WINDS SHOW 30 TO 40 KNOTS NEAR COLD FRONT. FRIDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BUT LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT INSTABILITY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH 700 TEMPS OF -8 ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SATURDAY A STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 7000 FEET OR HIGHER. MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...SO ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND SKY FOR MONDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AT KWMC...KEKO AND KELY. RAIN SHOULD END BY LATER THIS MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH A 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS/VIS. ALSO A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OF A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KELY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 86/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
312 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THICK CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TODAY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER IN THE EAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS IT HAS BEEN. THURSDAY WILL SEE A STRONG WARMING TREND FOR MOST OF THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SLIDES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MORE RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH AND EAST ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. && .DISCUSSION... THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING UPPER WAVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS FAST AND MOISTURE RICH FLOW EJECTS EAST OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS STARTED TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM ON THE QPF SIDE OF THINGS LAST NIGHT AND THAT TREND CONTINUES. THE LATEST HRRR AND 18Z NAM ARE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT LOW END PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NM THIS EVENING. EVEN THE ABQ AND SAF METRO AREA ARE PROGGED TO PICK UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS. HAVE TRENDED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN FOR THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF CHANCE IN SURROUNDING LOWER ELEVATIONS. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY AS WELL ABOVE 7500 FEET. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PLUNGING INTO THE NE PLAINS TONIGHT WILL FOCUS ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIP ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. WINDS WILL ALSO BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS DUE TO SHORT DURATION. WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER OUT EAST AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO FILTER THROUGH THE AREA. A SUNNIER DAY THAN TODAY IS ON TAP MOST AREAS HOWEVER STILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND WINDS MIXING OVER THE AREA. THE EAST WILL PUSH LOW TO MID 70S ONCE AGAIN. EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STORM SYSTEM DIVING SE OUT THE PACIFIC NW INTO NM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAIN THE BIG QUESTION WITH THIS EVENT. A DEEP COLD POOL OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY ALLOW FOR GAP WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO DELIVER THE BEST PRECIP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE AS FAR WEST AS THE DIVIDE IS POSSIBLE. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP WITH THIS SYSTEM SO DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD AT WORK. DAYTIME INSTABILITY BENEATH THE COLD CORE WILL OFFER THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS EVEN SOME STORMS SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. GUYER && .FIRE WEATHER... MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED WIND FORECAST. INCREASED SPEEDS TO MATCH BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON FRIDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING IN A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF THE FLOW ALOFT/MIXING ON THAT DAY. ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND WOULD COINCIDE WITH A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE ALSO INCREASED WITH THE PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF AND NAM ARE ALL BULLISH FOR AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS QUICK HITTING SYSTEM ACROSS THE JEMEZ/LOWER SAN JUAN MTNS. SUSPECT THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF THE SANDIAS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL GET SOME MEASURABLE AS WELL. UNSURE HOW MUCH WETTING...GREATER THAN TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT CANT RULE IT OUT. AS MENTIONED...PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OVER THE FORECAST AREA REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL EFFECTS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST QUARTER. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTHWARD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG ALONG THIS FRONTAL PUSH BUT THE FURTHER WEST YOU GET...LESS WIND. WEDNESDAY SPEEDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MUCH WEAKER. VENTILATION RATES WILL LOWER ACROSS MOST WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS. A STRONGER MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL TRIED TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AND COULD AFFECT FAR WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL AS A RESULT. SHARPLY ACROSS SOME AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP AREAWIDE AND EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MODERATE WIND FLOW ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. BELOW 15 PCT RH VALUES SHOW UP ACROSS MANY OF THE LOWLAND AREAS. BREEZY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LOWER RH WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA ROSA BUT SHOULD BE LOCALIZED IN NATURE. LOOKING FOR A FEW STRONGER BREEZES ACROSS THE HIGHER CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL TAKE AIM ON THE AREA FRIDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND COMBINE WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME BREEZINESS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO ADOPTED THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NAM SOLUTION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE AN INTERESTING WEATHER DAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OR HIGHER DEWPOINTS FLOWING IN FROM THE WEST AND THE BACK DOOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. LOOKING AT MID/UPPER TEEN RH VALUES ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PLAINS. NOT LOOKING AT ANY CRITICAL CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME EVEN. MODELS STILL SHOW A STRENGTHENING TROUGH WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR A WETTING PRECIPITATION EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT AS THE PREVIOUS WEEKEND ONE. THE COLD FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HELP CONCENTRATE SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION THERE. ALSO EXPECT SOME POCKETS ACROSS THE NORTH AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTHWEST AREAS. EITHER WAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER. CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHTNING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SNOW LEVELS ALSO APPEAR TO BE LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE AND SNOW MELT WOULD HELP MOISTEN THE FUELS A BIT MORE. A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS TO PUSH OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SUSPECT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COME IN A LITTLE HIGHER AS WE GET NEARER TO THAT PERIOD BECAUSE MIXING WILL BE LOWER AND THUS KEEP SFC DEWPOINTS FROM GETTING TOO LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE ISNT THE BEST FOR THE RH FORECAST ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE PACIFIC LOW CAN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. 50 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ON THE FORECAST AREA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THIS DISTURBANCE. MODELS HAVE COME IN A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SO HAVE BUILT IN SOME VCSH/S AT GUP/AEG/ABQ/SAF AND LVS. WAVE WILL INITIALLY AFFECT FMN/GUP FIRST LATE AFT/EARLY EVE AND THEN TRANSITION OVER CENTRAL SITES EVENING/EARLY AM AND THEN FINISH ITS SWEEP OF THE AREA BTWN 12Z TO 15Z WED. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE AND WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL MODIFY TO INCLUDE TEMPO/PREVAILING OR TAKE OUT PRECIP MENTION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE PERIOD. MTN TOP OBSCD IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HRS DURING THE WAVE PASSAGE. 50 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 26 58 27 63 / 30 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 21 54 21 59 / 40 0 0 0 CUBA............................ 23 54 24 60 / 50 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 17 59 19 65 / 20 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 20 54 22 59 / 20 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 21 59 20 66 / 20 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 27 56 28 62 / 10 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 25 68 26 69 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 19 47 17 50 / 50 5 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 31 53 33 59 / 40 5 0 0 PECOS........................... 28 51 29 57 / 40 5 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 19 50 18 59 / 40 5 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 22 41 24 47 / 50 5 0 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 22 47 21 53 / 40 5 0 0 TAOS............................ 23 54 22 60 / 30 0 0 0 MORA............................ 28 52 28 58 / 30 5 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 26 60 27 65 / 30 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 29 52 30 59 / 50 5 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 28 57 29 64 / 40 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 38 59 36 66 / 40 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 35 61 34 67 / 30 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 35 63 33 69 / 20 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 35 63 33 70 / 30 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 29 64 28 70 / 20 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 34 63 33 69 / 30 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 42 65 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 32 56 34 63 / 60 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 34 56 35 62 / 40 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 26 56 26 63 / 30 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 29 53 30 61 / 40 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 37 56 33 62 / 20 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 35 60 33 63 / 5 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 34 54 32 60 / 10 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 28 45 24 65 / 30 20 0 0 RATON........................... 26 53 23 70 / 30 5 0 0 SPRINGER........................ 28 55 24 70 / 20 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 29 55 26 66 / 20 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 30 46 28 72 / 10 10 0 0 ROY............................. 32 50 26 68 / 10 5 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 36 52 32 72 / 10 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 39 54 32 70 / 10 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 36 52 29 74 / 10 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 35 51 30 69 / 10 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 36 55 30 71 / 10 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 41 55 33 72 / 10 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 37 61 31 72 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 40 57 32 71 / 5 0 0 0 ELK............................. 38 55 32 65 / 5 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
333 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...IT WILL BE COLD AND BLUSTERY. SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY...CONTINUING COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE COAST. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY AND HOLDING ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD. THIS MORNING...EXPECT RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES MAY MAKE FOR SLICK TRAVEL AS TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S. ALSO...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE HIGHLY INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD FREEZE UPON IMPACT WITH MOST ANY UNTREATED SURFACE. RADAR OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS INDICATES EVEN THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT WAS APPARENT EARLIER HAS ENDED AND WITH THAT WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. AN SPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT SOME RESIDUAL ICING THROUGH THE MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 6-7 KFT AND DRY AIR ALSO BELOW 1-2 KFT. IN BETWEEN...THE COLUMN IS SATURATED...WITH A VERY PRONOUNCED FRONTAL INVERSION IN PLACE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PROFILE SHOWS THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE COLD AIR AND NE WINDS...TO A DEPTH OF 2-3 KFT. ATOP THAT...THE FLOW IS WSW OR W...BUT RATHER WEAK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEDGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SHOW A MODEST WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TONIGHT. ONE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVE...BUT A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AS ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES APPROACHES TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT...WE MAY SEE A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE S. CONCERN WITH THIS IS WHETHER SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AS THE LIGHT RAIN REACHES THE AREA. THE BELOW FREEZING LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND SO THERE IS NO EXPECTATION FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...EVEN IF AIR TEMPS ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...SOME SURFACES AT OR NEAR GROUND LEVEL MAY NOT QUITE BE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. ANY SURFACE BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP A LIGHT GLAZE. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR ANY ICING TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...NEAR AND N OF A BURGAW TO EYF TO LBT TO BBP LINE. THESE AREAS WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH DAYBREAK WED AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES REACH THE AREA WILL BE VERY LIGHT...A TRACE TO A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OR SO. WE WILL BE WATCHING FORECAST TRENDS CLOSELY AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN OTHERS AND WE DID TREND OUR FORECAST TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS WITH THIS PACKAGE. WE WILL HOLD ONTO THICK CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD A FLAT DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AND WE WILL DO WELL TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S. TONIGHT...WET BULB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP HIGHER AND WE DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO CHANGE MUCH WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO DAYTIME HIGHS...IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FLIRTING WITH 32 DEGREES... MAINLY ALONG AND N OF A LINE FROM BURGAW AND EYF TO LBT AND BBP. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH WED AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH A DECENT NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE BEING OVERRUN BY SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS ENHANCED LIFT WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF RAIN ON WED. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST LIFT WILL BE ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR PCP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS COLUMN REMAINS SATURATED THROUGH MUCH OF WED. BORDERLINE TEMPS WED MORNING WILL WARM AND ENTIRE COLUMN WARMS THROUGH WED INTO THURS ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE THREAT OF ANY WINTRY MIXED PCP. AS THE BEST LIFT REMAINS MORE ALIGNED WITH COAST EXPECT HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO BE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OFF SHORE. THIS FIRST IMPULSE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY WED NIGHT AND SHOULD SEE PCP LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WED. ANOTHER MORE POTENT LOW WILL RIDE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST OR JUST OFF SHORE THROUGH THURS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR THE AREA IN ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT THURS. OVERALL EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDY WET AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER. GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED WED AFTN AND THEN AGAIN ON THURS TO PRODUCE INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS AND PCP WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR HIGHS AND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT....MID 30S TO AROUND 40. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO UPR LEVELS OVER THE CAROLINAS FRI MORNING WILL PUSH OFF SHORE BY FRI AFTN AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF AREA LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING PCP THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY WITH A DEEPER DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON BACK END OF EXITING LOW. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL BY FRI...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT A LITTLE QUICKER AND SUNSHINE HELPS TO BRING TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES. BY SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL BRING TEMPS JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THE COOL WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO THE BEACHES COOLER AS SEA BREEZE KICKS IN EACH AFTERNOON SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE BY LATE SATURDAY WITH A W-SW FLOW SETTING UP. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY SUNDAY EVENING. WILL SEE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LEFT VERY LOW END CHC OF PCP BACK IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT NOT COUNTING ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ON THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR MONDAY AFTER A COOLER START MONDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATE MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING WITH N-NNE WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING JUST OVER 20 KTS. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS AN END OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR NOW...BUT MAJOR MODELS HINT AT PRECIPITATION CONTINUING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS THIS MORNING IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIPITATION IN TAFS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT VFR WILL TEMPORARILY DEVELOP AT KLBT AROUND 09Z AND AT KFLO SEVERAL HOURS LATER AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE THAT VFR WILL DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...AND SHOULD RE-DEVELOP AT KFLO/KLBT BY MID-LATE MORNING. MOST MODELS INCREASE PRECIPITATION AFTER SUNRISE ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. IFR WILL BE LIKELY NEAR AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE PRECIPITATION/IFR WED...AND THU EVENING THROUGH FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WILL DOWNGRADE THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THIS ISSUANCE. OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A DECIDED ALBEIT SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE STRONG WIND GUSTS. A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS PERIOD. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE LESS TIGHT AND WITH THE INITIAL COLD AND DRY SURGE NOW PAST...EXPECT THE WIND SPEEDS WILL VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH. THE STRONGEST WILL BE THROUGH THIS MORNING...UP TO 25 TO 30 KT...THEN UP TO 20 TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND AROUND 20 KT TONIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FROM THE NNE. SEAS HAVE PEAKED...UP TO 11 FT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS EARLIER. EXPECT A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND HERE AS WELL WITH SEAS LIKELY FALLING BELOW 6 FT WITHIN 20 NM LATER THIS EVE. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES BY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WATERS. LOCAL WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL BECOME PINCHED WED AND THEN AGAIN ON THURS AS A MORE POTENT LOW MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AROUND 15 KTS ON WED WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN FURTHER ON THURS. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP INTO SCA THRESHOLDS MAINLY IN OUTER WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH WED NIGHT UP TO 5 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS AND UP TO 6 TO 9 FT AS LOW DEEPENS AND RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL RUN THROUGH THURS NIGHT IN STIFF NORTHEAST FLOW. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FINALLY COME DOWN BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MAY SEE SOME SPOTS IN OUTER WATERS REACH UP CLOSE TO GALE FORCE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND EXITING LOW ON SATURDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH SAT MORNING AND EVEN FURTHER BY SAT EVENING. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RJD/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
208 AM EST MON MAR 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...IT WILL BE COLD AND BLUSTERY. SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY...CONTINUING COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE COAST. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1045 PM MONDAY...CONTINUED UPDATES TO THE HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN APPLIED AND UPLOADED...PARTICULARLY RELATED TO THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE ILM CWA. LATEST PCPN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE ILM CWA HAS DECREASED AND DIMINISHED DURING THIS LATE EVENING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...THE FA WILL BE LOOKING AT A CONTINUED POST FRONTAL STRATIFORM CLOUD DECK. THE ARCTIC/COLD AIR DEPTH TO REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW ACROSS THE FA DURING ITS SHORT TENURE ACROSS THE ILM CWA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT... WITH MINIMAL DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE ANY ORGANIZED PCPN...OTHER THEN THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH MINIMAL IF ANY ACCRUAL OR ACCRETION TO OCCUR. CONTINUED RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE ILM CWA...AND LATEST TEMPS FROM SFC OBS INDICATING PCPN FALLING AS PATCHY ZR- OR XL-...WITH ICE PELLETS IE. SLEET...ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE THE SFC BASED ARCTIC AIR IS DEEPER IN DEPTH. OVERALL...HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON PCPN COVERAGE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT FOR WINTRY PCPN OVER PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA. FOR THE CLIMATIC DAY...MARCH 3RD 2014...THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ACROSS THE ILM CWA HAVE BEEN CONTINUALLY RE-SETTING TO A NEW LOW TEMP FOR THE DAY AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS THE FA THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A HIGHLY UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK AS AN ARCTIC FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE WHILE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT. PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BANKED ALONG THE EAST COAST BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE. ALOFT...SW FLOW AHEAD DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WARM/MOIST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WEDGE...WHILE SOME ENHANCED CONFLUENCE WILL ACTUALLY HELP REINFORCE ITS STRENGTH. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK TUESDAY REVOLVES AROUND WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE CWA...WHILE TEMPS BETWEEN 950MB AND 850MB WARM TO +2C TO +4C. MOIST LOW LEVELS OF THE COLUMN PERSIST ALL OF TUESDAY...BUT VERY DRY AIR EXISTS ABOVE 850MB...SUCH THAT PWATS REMAIN RATHER LOW...AROUND ONE-HALF INCH. SO THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP...EVEN MORE DETERMINING POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING SEVERAL HOURS INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPS ONLY VERY SLOWLY WARM...LIKELY MUCH SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND REINFORCING WEDGE. STILL...WILL CARRY XL FOR ALL ZONES INTO TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING MAYBE A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTH. AGAIN...AM CONCERNED ABOUT LACK OF FORCING (ISENTROPIC LIFT IS VERY WEAK) AND THE DRY AIR ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP QPF AT 0 FOR NOW. THIS IS A VERY BORDERLINE SITUATION HOWEVER...SINCE SIMPLY A TRACE OF ZR REQUIRES A WW.Y...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A FLUID SITUATION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF CURRENT WW.Y TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE CWA. A MORE IMPRESSIVE AREA OF PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES DRAMATICALLY OVERHEAD IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. FORECAST PROFILES SATURATE CONSIDERABLY...AND MOS P12/P24 VALUES SKYROCKET TO THE HIGH LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN THE GFS ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL NOT BE AS AGGRESSIVE AS GFS IS SHOWING FOR QPF...BUT DEFINITELY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WED THAN TUESDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY...TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO JUST A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT RENEWED HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND ON THURSDAY AS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. INHERITED POP SHOWS INCREASING TO HIGH-CHC FROM SW TO NE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND FEEL THIS IS WARRANTED SO WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL INCREASE TO THE WED NIGHT PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS THE REINFORCING WEDGE COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL PREVENT MUCH WARMING THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS WILL PEAK ONLY IN THE 30S MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT SOME LOW 40S POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. THIS IS 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE! LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS FOR MINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA. SOME WARMING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...RISING INTO THE MID/UPPR 40S...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID/UPPR 30S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW SHOULD BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY...SPREADING PLENTY OF THICK CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH 12Z GFS WAS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF REGARDING THE DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. I HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80 PERCENT AND STORM-TOTAL QPF TO NEAR 1 INCH PENDING CONFIRMATION FROM ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF MODEL RUNS. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ROLL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND PERIODS OF LIFT SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING... WITH DRYING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE 12Z GFS LOOKED SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF WAS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT BOMBS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE NC COAST. ROUGHLY 20 PERCENT OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOWED A STRONG SURFACE LOW LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF SITTING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY...SO THIS IDEA WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ASSUMING WE GET SOME SUNSHINE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY HIGHS SHOULD REACH 53-57...COOLEST AT THE COAST. (OF COURSE IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS RIGHT AND WE STAY CLOUDY/ RAINY/WINDY MOST OF THE DAY THESE HIGHS COULD BE 10 DEGREES TOO OPTIMISTIC) SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY WILL SEEM WONDERFUL AFTER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS PLUS THE DAYTIME SEABREEZE WORKING TOGETHER TO KEEP THE BEACHES CONSIDERABLY COOLER COMPARED TO INLAND LOCATIONS. SUNDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ALOFT WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE 12Z GFS WAS MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN EITHER OF TODAY`S ECMWF RUNS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTTING OFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GOING WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION MEANS WE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNLESS A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG A SOUTHWARD-MOVING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN THE EAST COAST SUNDAY EVENING. THIS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE THE RESULT OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD BRING LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATE MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING WITH N-NNE WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING JUST OVER 20 KTS. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS AN END OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR NOW...BUT MAJOR MODELS HINT AT PRECIPITATION CONTINUING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS THIS MORNING IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIPITATION IN TAFS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT VFR WILL TEMPORARILY DEVELOP AT KLBT AROUND 09Z AND AT KFLO SEVERAL HOURS LATER AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE THAT VFR WILL DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...AND SHOULD RE-DEVELOP AT KFLO/KLBT BY MID-LATE MORNING. MOST MODELS INCREASE PRECIPITATION AFTER SUNRISE ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. IFR WILL BE LIKELY NEAR AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE PRECIPITATION/IFR WED...AND THU EVENING THROUGH FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...BORDERLINE POST ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL RULE THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT...ESPECIALLY JUST OUTSIDE THE LOCAL WATERS IE. 41013 GUSTING OVER 40 KT THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THE GALE WARNING CRITERIA HAS BEEN SATISFIED FOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE TIGHTENING SFC PG AND THE ARCTIC SURGE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SFC PG LOOSENING SOME AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. N-NNE WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS...WILL DOMINATE THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 8 FT...WITH THE HIGHER SEAS OF THIS RANGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...AND THE OUTER WATERS OFF FROM THE MOUTH OF WINYAH BAY. THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT AVERAGE AND DOMINANT PERIODS OF 6 SECONDS...WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UNDERLYING AND IDENTIFIABLE 9 TO 10 SECOND PERIOD 1 TO 3 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL...WILL CO-EXIST WITH THIS BUILDING WIND WAVE. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN ALONG THE COAST BEHIND IT. THIS WEDGE WILL CONTROL THE LOCAL WIND TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A NE DIRECTION PERSISTENT THROUGH MID-WEEK. SPEEDS WILL CHANGE WITH THE FLUCTUATING GRADIENT...EASING FROM 15-25 KTS EARLY TUESDAY TO 10-15 KTS LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 15-20 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A 6-7 NE WIND WAVE...WITH AMPLITUDES FALLING FROM 4-7 FT EARLY...TO 3-5 FT MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND RISING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 3-6 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SHORT TERM. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THURSDAY. VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG A LINE FROM FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY MORNING CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE LOW ABOUT 100 MILES OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE LOW SHOULD STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT FOLLOWS THE GULF STREAM NORTHEASTWARD. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST/NORTH WINDS AND SEAS. MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE LOW FRIDAY: THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF TAKE THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH DIMINISHING IMPACTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT HOWEVER...SLOWING THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY AS IT BOMBS THE STORM DOWN TO BELOW 1000 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE WHILE OVER THE WARM WATER SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS BY SATURDAY THE LOW SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND QUICKLY DIMINISHING SEAS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ017-023- 024. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ087-096- 105-106. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...TRA AVIATION...MRR/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
825 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 825 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 ISSUED QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND AND DELAY TIMING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...BASED ON RADAR/OBS TRENDS UPSTREAM AS WELL AS SHORT TERM MODEL DATA (HRRR/RUC/00Z NAM). UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. WILL NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS ND BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWEST. 18Z MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE 18Z NAM AND LATEST RUC ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PRECIP COMPARED TO GFS/12Z ECMWF. SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS OBSERVED UPSTREAM ACROSS MONTANA...BUT STILL NOT SEEING MUCH REACH THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER POPS OR REMOVE THEM ACROSS CENTRAL ND FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES. LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND INTO MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRACKING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW. STRONG WARM ADVECTION PRODUCING WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION AND THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE AREA. UTILIZED THE GFS FOR THE MAX TEMPERATURE ALOFT. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT KEEPING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS TEMPERATURES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE ECMWF WAS SIMILAR TO THIS ON THE 04 MARCH 12 UTC RUN...BUT IS NOW QUITE A BIT WARMER AND CLOSER TO THE NAM. THE MAIN REASON FOR GOING WITH THE GFS IS THAT EVEN THE WARM NAM DOES NOT HAVE A REAL DEEP LAYER OF +3C TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS IF THERE WERE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...THE THINKING NOW IS THAT IT WOULD BE BRIEF...AND THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE SNOW. NOW AS YOU GO FARTHER SOUTH...SAY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN INCREASES WITH A DEEPER WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE SOUTH. WE WILL ALSO HAVE THE UNCERTAINTY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF HERE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF SNOW ALSO INCREASES AS YOU GO NORTH. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...IN THE WESTERN THIRD...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO DROP OFF. CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THUS WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND EVENING OR MID SHIFT WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON IF A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NEEDED...AND WHERE IT WOULD GO. ON THURSDAY...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AS COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH WILL BE SLOW TO DROP COMPLETELY THROUGH THE STATE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 THE LONG TERM BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS NORTHEAST ON THE TAIL END OF A MID LEVEL S/WV. OTHERWISE...LINGERING LIGHT SNOW A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS PORTRAYING LOW STRATUS IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY...WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 20F DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY. MODELS STILL DEPICT LIGHT QPF ACROSS MONTANA AND AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PICKING UP ON WEAK EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ENERGY AND RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE SFC HIGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MATERIALIZES FOR THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO HIT 40 DEGREES IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION AND THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST. RIDGE FLATTENS MONDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH THIS FEATURE ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH THIS TRANSITION...ALONG WITH SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING HIGH IMPACT AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETTING UP...KEEPING THE BEST STORM TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT ALL SITES AS OF 01Z UTC. NEXT SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM MONTANA AND EXPECT TO SEE LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH INCLUDING KISN AND KMOT BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE MAY BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JNS SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. WILL NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS ND BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWEST. 18Z MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE 18Z NAM AND LATEST RUC ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PRECIP COMPARED TO GFS/12Z ECMWF. SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS OBSERVED UPSTREAM ACROSS MONTANA...BUT STILL NOT SEEING MUCH REACH THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER POPS OR REMOVE THEM ACROSS CENTRAL ND FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES. LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND INTO MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRACKING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW. STRONG WARM ADVECTION PRODUCING WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION AND THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE AREA. UTILIZED THE GFS FOR THE MAX TEMPERATURE ALOFT. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT KEEPING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS TEMPERATURES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE ECMWF WAS SIMILAR TO THIS ON THE 04 MARCH 12 UTC RUN...BUT IS NOW QUITE A BIT WARMER AND CLOSER TO THE NAM. THE MAIN REASON FOR GOING WITH THE GFS IS THAT EVEN THE WARM NAM DOES NOT HAVE A REAL DEEP LAYER OF +3C TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS IF THERE WERE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...THE THINKING NOW IS THAT IT WOULD BE BRIEF...AND THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE SNOW. NOW AS YOU GO FARTHER SOUTH...SAY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN INCREASES WITH A DEEPER WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE SOUTH. WE WILL ALSO HAVE THE UNCERTAINTY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF HERE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF SNOW ALSO INCREASES AS YOU GO NORTH. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...IN THE WESTERN THIRD...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO DROP OFF. CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THUS WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND EVENING OR MID SHIFT WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON IF A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NEEDED...AND WHERE IT WOULD GO. ON THURSDAY...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AS COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH WILL BE SLOW TO DROP COMPLETELY THROUGH THE STATE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 THE LONG TERM BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS NORTHEAST ON THE TAIL END OF A MID LEVEL S/WV. OTHERWISE...LINGERING LIGHT SNOW A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS PORTRAYING LOW STRATUS IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY...WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 20F DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY. MODELS STILL DEPICT LIGHT QPF ACROSS MONTANA AND AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PICKING UP ON WEAK EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ENERGY AND RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE SFC HIGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MATERIALIZES FOR THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO HIT 40 DEGREES IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION AND THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST. RIDGE FLATTENS MONDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH THIS FEATURE ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH THIS TRANSITION...ALONG WITH SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING HIGH IMPACT AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETTING UP...KEEPING THE BEST STORM TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT ALL SITES AS OF 01Z UTC. NEXT SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM MONTANA AND EXPECT TO SEE LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH INCLUDING KISN AND KMOT BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE MAY BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JNS SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1005 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014 BASED ON RADAR UPSTREAM SNOW AREA HUGGING ALONG HIGHWAY TWO ATTM AS THE SOUTHERN ACTIVITY HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN. SHORT RANGE RAP AND INCOMING NAM12 BRING THE BACKEDGE OF LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY NEAR RUGBY-CARRINGTON TO THE RED RIVER IN EAST CENTRAL ND BY 08Z AND THEN PUSH IT EAST OF OUR MN FCST AREA BY 11Z. THIS IS LATER THAN EARLIER FCST AND THUS UPPED POPS AND DELAYED SNOW ENDING. THIS SECOND BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS FINE SNOW AND NOT ACCUMULATING MUCH -- GENERALLY UNDER A HALF INCH. MOST SNOWFALL TODAY WAS IN THE FARGO AREA WITH 1.5 INCHES. CLEARING NOTED VERY NEAR MANITOBA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AND THIS MAY DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT MOST MODELS SLIDE IT MORE EAST- SOUTHEAST. WHERE IT CLEARS IT WILL DROP BLO ZERO QUICKLY BUT IN CLOUDS TEMPS WILL HOLD UP. SO LOW TEMP FCST A BIT TRICKY BUT KEPT PREV FCST AREA OF SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORTH TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE SOUTH. .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 257 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014 SNOW CHANCES WITH THE VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODELS THAT WERE HINTING AT THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION HAVE VERIFIED AS A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH HAS FALLEN AT FARGO AND SNOW IS STILL ONGOING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BAND WEAKENING FROM FARGO TO PKD AND THEN REDEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRACK RECORD WITH PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW BAND WITH THIS SYSTEM AM NOT SURE ANY MODEL SOLUTION IS TO BE TRUSTED. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS THIS EVENING...MAINLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND THEN TAPERING OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE HEADS OFF INTO MN LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TOMORROW. MODELS ALL BRING IN SOME PRECIP INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH IT STILL SEEMS THAT THE MAIN BAND WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. THINK THAT EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA WILL HELP KEEP MUCH OF THE SNOW TO THE FRINGES OF THE CWA AND WILL KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE. HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO FOR TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN...WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF ALTHOUGH LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN OUR SOUTH AND WEST FOR ANYTHING LINGERING. CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 257 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014 WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT SHOT OF MILDER AIR AS WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND HIGHS SHOULD GET MORE INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGS COLD AIR DOWN AGAIN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. THE GFS IS FASTEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND BRINGS THE NEXT COLD AIR SURGE FAIRLY EARLY ON THURSDAY WHILE THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP 850MB TEMPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR A LONGER PERIOD. MAY BE WISH-CASTING...BUT THE GFS IS OFTEN TOO PROGRESSIVE SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BIT MORE WARMTH ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S. MAY HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE THURSDAY BUT CAN ADJUST AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER. FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...500MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THU NIGHT/FRI BUT THERE IS ONE MORE LITTLE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE SLOWLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST SAT/EARLY SUN WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SFC. TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL FRI/SAT BUT REALLY BEGIN TO BUMP UP SUN POSSIBLY INTO MON. ECMWF/GFS SHOW +4C TO +8C AT 850MB ON SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEST WINDS. THEREFORE CURRENTLY GOING AROUND 32F FOR SUN HIGHS AND GUIDANCE NOW GIVING ABOUT THE SAME OR WARMER FOR MON. 850MB TEMPS LOOK ABOUT 4 TO 8 C COOLER ON MONDAY SO WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LATER RUNS COOL MONDAY HIGHS. COULD ALSO BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AROUND ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 714 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014 GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CIGS THRU THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES THIS EVENING. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TURNING LIGHT NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RIDDLE SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/GODON AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1054 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014 ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND THUS WILL KEEP OUT ANY POPS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES THAT MAKE IT THROUGH THE DRY AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OTHER QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER WE SEE ANY LOW STRATUS FORM. NAM..GFS...HRRR AND RAP ALL SHOW A PRETTY STRONG SIGNAL...AS LOW LEVEL MOIST AIR IS ADVECTED NORTH INTO OUR COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER NOTHING OUT THERE RIGHT NOW...AND THE GEM AND ECMWF SEEM A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE ON THE STRATUS. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. INITIALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY AS THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HELP KEEP THINGS MIXED. HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EXIT LATER TONIGHT. IF STRATUS IS NOT AROUND OR EXITS...COULD SEE SOME SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES BY MORNING. HOWEVER IF STRATUS STICKS AROUND READINGS WOULD BE STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO. FOR NOW WILL GO THE MIDDLE GROUND...SINCE CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON WHICH SOLUTION WILL VERIFY. TOMORROW WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH THE SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUING...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND AN EASTERLY WIND AROUND 10 MPH. ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRETTY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL BEING A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. THUS LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE AN AREA OF SNOW AFTER WE SATURATE THE INITIALLY DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT WE WILL SEE AN AREA OF SNOW FORM ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST CHANCE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO SPENCER IOWA LINE...CLOSER TO THE BETTER PV ADVECTION AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTION. 12Z NAM SEEMED TOO SLOW AND THUS WAS NOT USED...WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS...GEM AND ECMWF SEEMING LIKE THE WAY TO GO. GIVEN THE PERIOD OF PRETTY GOOD OMEGA...THE HIGHER QPF OF THE HI RES MODELS AND GEM DOES SEEM POSSIBLE. SO DID TREND QPF UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE 18Z NAM HAS ACTUALLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE OTHER MODELS...AND NOW MATCHES THE FORECAST PRETTY WELL. THINKING WE SEE AN AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES SOMEWHERE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE CURRENT BEST GUESS BEING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA COUNTIES...WITH GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ELSEWHERE. MODELS TODAY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST WITH QPF INTO THE AREA OF BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL FALL. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014 SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...ALLOWING THE LIGHT SNOWFALL LINGERING ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF TO COME TO AN END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...KEEPING PREVENTING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. LIGHT WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PUT A CAP ON THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY... HOWEVER HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH THE 20S WITH SOME LOW 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FURTHER BOLSTERING READINGS DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT STRATUS ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN TIMING THAN THE GEM AND GFS...BUT ALL MODELS DO TRACK THE BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEEING ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF...BUT EVEN HERE MID LEVELS REMAIN PRETTY DRY. WILL LEAVE ONLY MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX WITH FAIRLY MILD MID/LOW LEVELS AND SUB FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. THE WARMING TREND RESUMES SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOLLOWED BY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH APPEARS AS THOUGH ATMOSPHERE WILL SATURATE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO FALL AT BOTH KHON AND KFSD AROUND 18Z...AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS KSUX. HEAVIEST SNOW AT THIS POINT APPEARS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH AND EAST OF KFSD AND KHON...WHERE VISIBILITY MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. WEAK LIFT LINGERS INTO TUESDAY EVENING...SO HARD TO SAY AT THIS POINT ON WHEN THE SNOW WILL STOP. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
536 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 .AVIATION... VFR. MAY STILL SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOP AT CDS...BUT THE BETTER THREAT FOR THIS NOW LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO EARLY THU MORNING. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL TAPER SHORTLY BEFORE TRENDING SOUTHWEST LATER THU MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014/ SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BUT SHOULD DRAW TO A CLOSE BEFORE SUNSET. THERE STILL ARE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW BUT EXPECT THESE TO CLEAR OFF BY LATER TONIGHT. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS...FOG...OR A HEAVY FROST AS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. MODELS ARE KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN STEP WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND AREAS THAT DID RECEIVE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A BIT OF EXTRA MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND ALONG WITH THE EXTRA MOISTURE USUALLY FAVORS LOW CLOUDS OR FOG BUT THIS MAY ALSO BRING ABOUT A PRETTY HEAVY FROST FOR SOME AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER. HARD TO TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN AS THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH BOUNCE AROUND THE LOCATION OF WHERE REDUCED VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP. WENT AHEAD AND LEFT MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER BUT STILL ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. WIND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT SHOULD DO SO EARLIER ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THAN THE ROLLING PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR 70 WHILE THE ROLLING PLAINS REMAINS A BIT COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. STREAM OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ON WV/HIGH CLOUDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOULD ARRIVE TOMORROW MORNING...ALSO HELPING TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH DURING THE DAY. JORDAN LONG TERM... FLATTENED UA RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD IN COMBINATION WITH THE RETURN OF SFC LEE TROUGHING AND SFC SRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORM TEMPS TO ROUND OUT THE END OF THE WEEK /70S/. ABL MIXING TO AOA 600 MB SUGGESTS AFTN W-SW WIND SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH...WHICH IS NOT OVERLY STRONG GIVEN WIND SPEEDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY TAMED. DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BREEZY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO A BREEZY COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...DRIVEN BY A 1030 MB SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES OF 7-10 MB PER 3 HRS SUGGEST NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH /TEMPS TO COOL INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW 50S ON SATURDAY/. CONCURRENTLY...AN OPEN WAVE UA DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ITS EXACT TRACK. THE DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN TO EITHER MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD /PER THE NAM/ OR BREAK INTO TWO PIECES WHERE ONE PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND THE OTHER PIECE TRANSLATES ACROSS NERN OLD MEXICO /PER THE GFS AND ECMWF/. THUS...THIS SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY IS TOO FAR SW TO AFFECT THE REGION. IF FOLLOWING THE FORMER MODEL...A RATHER LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NRN AND NWRN ZONES WITH -RA ELSEWHERE ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE NAME WHILST THE GFS IS ALMOST VOID OF PRECIP...LIKELY DUE TO ITS WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE DISTURBANCE. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS APPEARS VALID ATTM...WITH BETTER CHANCES NORTH...SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA. LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SRLY SFC REGIME WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THUS PROMOTING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND /HIGHS IN THE 70S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK/. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE PROGGED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS MID-WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION MID-LATE WEEK...THOUGH ITS TRACK IS UP FOR DEBATE /REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA PER THE ECMWF OR PASSING OVERHEAD PER THE GFS/. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE BEYOND SATURDAY ATTM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 28 71 38 72 28 / 0 0 0 0 20 TULIA 26 67 37 73 30 / 0 0 0 0 20 PLAINVIEW 25 67 38 74 31 / 0 0 0 0 20 LEVELLAND 28 69 39 75 32 / 0 0 0 0 20 LUBBOCK 28 67 40 75 33 / 0 0 0 0 20 DENVER CITY 32 67 42 76 35 / 0 0 0 0 10 BROWNFIELD 30 67 40 75 34 / 0 0 0 0 10 CHILDRESS 28 64 38 74 34 / 0 0 0 0 10 SPUR 25 65 39 74 36 / 0 0 0 0 10 ASPERMONT 26 65 41 74 37 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
639 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014 .UPDATE... UPDATED TEMPERATURE AND WEATHER. FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED A BIT FURTHER INLAND WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING 33. TWEAKED THE TEMPERATURES A TAD WARMER THROUGH 2 PM TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. STILL HAVE AN AREA OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COASTAL BEND MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. BECAUSE OF THIS...TWEAKED THE RAIN CHANCES DOWNWARD A BIT OVER THE LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. 40 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/ DISCUSSION... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION. AVIATION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER W TX THIS MORNING WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS OVER SE TX INDICATING AT LEAST SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE AREA. MODERATE RA/FZRA/PL SEEM TO BE MAIN PRECIP TYPES FALLING FROM N TO S ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE HOUSTON TERMINALS ARE HOVERING AROUND FREEZING SO HARD TO KNOW HOW MUCH ICE ACCUMULATION THERE WILL BE AT TERMINALS. KHOU HAS BEEN REPORTING RA WHILE KSGR/KIAH HAVE GONE BETWEEN SLEET/FZRA. MEANWHILE KLBX HAS BEEN REPORTING SLEET RIGHT AT FREEZING. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FZRA/PL IN KSGR/KIAH TAFS BUT -RA/RA FOR KHOU. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...COULD HAVE PRECIP ENDING BY 15-17Z WHICH IS AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER THAN HRRR FORECAST TRENDS. OVERALL THINK HRRR HAS BEST DEPICTION OF PRECIP TRENDS SO TAFS LARGELY LEANED ON THAT GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME MORE PRECIP AROUND 00Z WED TIMEFRAME. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AS WELL BUT VERY LIGHT PRECIP IF ANY. IN THE EXTENDED...DID NOT SEE ANYTHING WRONG WITH GFS LAMP AS EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT. 39 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/ DISCUSSION... MAIN PROBLEM OF THE MORNING WILL BE THE IMPACT AND EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER. FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVISORY PRODUCTS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS GENERATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE MOVING THROUGH SE TX AT 4 AM. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WAS FALLING OVER MOST OF THE INLAND COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MADISONVILLE TO TRINITY. FREEZING RAIN WAS ALSO BEING REPORTED INTO SOME OF INLAND AREAS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES WEST OF GALVESTON COUNTY. OVER HARRIS AND GALVESTON COUNTIES...THE FREEZING LINE WAS A BIT FURTHER INLAND. SOME ADDITIONAL WET BULBING COULD OCCUR IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS ABOVE FREEZING AT 4 AM. THE NAM12 AND MAV GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES. DECIDED TO KEEP THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND HOUSTON...TRINITY...AND MADISON COUNTIES IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL SEE LESSER AMOUNTS WHILE THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE MORE OF A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING UP FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES AS MOST WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT ICING FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTY. HOWEVER...HARRIS COUNTY WILL SEE A VARIETY...FROM ALMOST ALL RAIN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST AND A WINTRY MIX OR ALL FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING DATA SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...DO NOT THINK THE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GET OUT OF THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GULF TOWARD FL. A ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS SE TX DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY PERIOD. THE NEXT ONE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FOR NOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAINFALL POTENTIAL. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 40 MARINE... NORTHERLY WINDS IN OFFSHORE AREAS APPEAR TO BE ROUGHLY AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE BAYS AND NEAR SHORE. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING SO WILL RUN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OFFSHORE AREAS THROUGH NOON AND CAUTION FOR BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL LIKELY HAVE CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL LOW FORMING OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. 39 AVIATION... IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF MUCH COLDER CLOUD TOPS MOVING OVER THE AREA INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION. ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING DETECTED SO FOR 09Z UPDATE ADDED TEMPO GROUP FOR KIAH/KHOU/KSGR FOR POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM AND SLEET. STILL THINK DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FZRA WITH TEMPS NEAR/BELOW FREEZING. LIKE TRENDS OF HRRR RUNS WHICH HAVE PRECIP SLOWING DOWN AROUND 15-18Z AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. CONCERNED THAT 06Z NAM SHOWING AN AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIP BY 00Z WED MAINLY FOR KSGR/KHOU. QUESTIONABLE IF TEMPS WILL BE BACK BELOW FREEZING AT THIS TIME OR IF WET BULB THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT FZRA/SLEET. ALSO NOT SURE IF CIGS WILL BREAK OUT OF IFR/MVFR AND BECOME VFR. STILL TIME TO EVALUATE FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 38 33 57 36 61 / 60 10 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 37 33 56 39 63 / 60 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 41 41 56 46 60 / 80 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON... HOUSTON...JACKSON...MADISON...MATAGORDA...TRINITY. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO... FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...LIBERTY...MONTGOMERY...POLK... SAN JACINTO...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM... WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...40 AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
540 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014 .DISCUSSION... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION. && .AVIATION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER W TX THIS MORNING WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS OVER SE TX INDICATING AT LEAST SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE AREA. MODERATE RA/FZRA/PL SEEM TO BE MAIN PRECIP TYPES FALLING FROM N TO S ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE HOUSTON TERMINALS ARE HOVERING AROUND FREEZING SO HARD TO KNOW HOW MUCH ICE ACCUMULATION THERE WILL BE AT TERMINALS. KHOU HAS BEEN REPORTING RA WHILE KSGR/KIAH HAVE GONE BETWEEN SLEET/FZRA. MEANWHILE KLBX HAS BEEN REPORTING SLEET RIGHT AT FREEZING. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FZRA/PL IN KSGR/KIAH TAFS BUT -RA/RA FOR KHOU. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...COULD HAVE PRECIP ENDING BY 15-17Z WHICH IS AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER THAN HRRR FORECAST TRENDS. OVERALL THINK HRRR HAS BEST DEPICTION OF PRECIP TRENDS SO TAFS LARGELY LEANED ON THAT GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME MORE PRECIP AROUND 00Z WED TIMEFRAME. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AS WELL BUT VERY LIGHT PRECIP IF ANY. IN THE EXTENDED...DID NOT SEE ANYTHING WRONG WITH GFS LAMP AS EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT. 39 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/ DISCUSSION... MAIN PROBLEM OF THE MORNING WILL BE THE IMPACT AND EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER. FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVISORY PRODUCTS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS GENERATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE MOVING THROUGH SE TX AT 4 AM. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WAS FALLING OVER MOST OF THE INLAND COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MADISONVILLE TO TRINITY. FREEZING RAIN WAS ALSO BEING REPORTED INTO SOME OF INLAND AREAS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES WEST OF GALVESTON COUNTY. OVER HARRIS AND GALVESTON COUNTIES...THE FREEZING LINE WAS A BIT FURTHER INLAND. SOME ADDITIONAL WET BULBING COULD OCCUR IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS ABOVE FREEZING AT 4 AM. THE NAM12 AND MAV GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES. DECIDED TO KEEP THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND HOUSTON...TRINITY...AND MADISON COUNTIES IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL SEE LESSER AMOUNTS WHILE THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE MORE OF A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING UP FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES AS MOST WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT ICING FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTY. HOWEVER...HARRIS COUNTY WILL SEE A VARIETY...FROM ALMOST ALL RAIN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST AND A WINTRY MIX OR ALL FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING DATA SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...DO NOT THINK THE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GET OUT OF THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GULF TOWARD FL. A ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS SE TX DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY PERIOD. THE NEXT ONE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FOR NOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAINFALL POTENTIAL. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 40 MARINE... NORTHERLY WINDS IN OFFSHORE AREAS APPEAR TO BE ROUGHLY AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE BAYS AND NEAR SHORE. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING SO WILL RUN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OFFSHORE AREAS THROUGH NOON AND CAUTION FOR BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL LIKELY HAVE CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL LOW FORMING OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. 39 AVIATION... IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF MUCH COLDER CLOUD TOPS MOVING OVER THE AREA INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION. ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING DETECTED SO FOR 09Z UPDATE ADDED TEMPO GROUP FOR KIAH/KHOU/KSGR FOR POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM AND SLEET. STILL THINK DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FZRA WITH TEMPS NEAR/BELOW FREEZING. LIKE TRENDS OF HRRR RUNS WHICH HAVE PRECIP SLOWING DOWN AROUND 15-18Z AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. CONCERNED THAT 06Z NAM SHOWING AN AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIP BY 00Z WED MAINLY FOR KSGR/KHOU. QUESTIONABLE IF TEMPS WILL BE BACK BELOW FREEZING AT THIS TIME OR IF WET BULB THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT FZRA/SLEET. ALSO NOT SURE IF CIGS WILL BREAK OUT OF IFR/MVFR AND BECOME VFR. STILL TIME TO EVALUATE FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 38 33 57 36 61 / 60 10 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 37 33 56 39 63 / 80 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 41 41 56 46 60 / 80 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON... HOUSTON...JACKSON...MADISON...MATAGORDA...TRINITY. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO... FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...LIBERTY...MONTGOMERY...POLK... SAN JACINTO...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM... WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM... WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...40 AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
436 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014 .DISCUSSION... MAIN PROBLEM OF THE MORNING WILL BE THE IMPACT AND EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER. FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVISORY PRODUCTS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS GENERATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE MOVING THROUGH SE TX AT 4 AM. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WAS FALLING OVER MOST OF THE INLAND COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MADISONVILLE TO TRINITY. FREEZING RAIN WAS ALSO BEING REPORTED INTO SOME OF INLAND AREAS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES WEST OF GALVESTON COUNTY. OVER HARRIS AND GALVESTON COUNTIES...THE FREEZING LINE WAS A BIT FURTHER INLAND. SOME ADDITIONAL WET BULBING COULD OCCUR IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS ABOVE FREEZING AT 4 AM. THE NAM12 AND MAV GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES. DECIDED TO KEEP THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND HOUSTON...TRINITY...AND MADISON COUNTIES IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL SEE LESSER AMOUNTS WHILE THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE MORE OF A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING UP FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES AS MOST WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT ICING FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTY. HOWEVER...HARRIS COUNTY WILL SEE A VARIETY...FROM ALMOST ALL RAIN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST AND A WINTRY MIX OR ALL FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING DATA SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...DO NOT THINK THE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GET OUT OF THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GULF TOWARD FL. A ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS SE TX DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY PERIOD. THE NEXT ONE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FOR NOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAINFALL POTENTIAL. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 40 && .MARINE... NORTHERLY WINDS IN OFFSHORE AREAS APPEAR TO BE ROUGHLY AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE BAYS AND NEAR SHORE. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING SO WILL RUN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OFFSHORE AREAS THROUGH NOON AND CAUTION FOR BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL LIKELY HAVE CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL LOW FORMING OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. 39 && .AVIATION... IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF MUCH COLDER CLOUD TOPS MOVING OVER THE AREA INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION. ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING DETECTED SO FOR 09Z UPDATE ADDED TEMPO GROUP FOR KIAH/KHOU/KSGR FOR POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM AND SLEET. STILL THINK DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FZRA WITH TEMPS NEAR/BELOW FREEZING. LIKE TRENDS OF HRRR RUNS WHICH HAVE PRECIP SLOWING DOWN AROUND 15-18Z AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. CONCERNED THAT 06Z NAM SHOWING AN AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIP BY 00Z WED MAINLY FOR KSGR/KHOU. QUESTIONABLE IF TEMPS WILL BE BACK BELOW FREEZING AT THIS TIME OR IF WET BULB THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT FZRA/SLEET. ALSO NOT SURE IF CIGS WILL BREAK OUT OF IFR/MVFR AND BECOME VFR. STILL TIME TO EVALUATE FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 38 33 57 36 61 / 60 10 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 37 33 56 39 63 / 80 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 41 41 56 46 60 / 80 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON... HOUSTON...JACKSON...MADISON...MATAGORDA...TRINITY. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO... FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...LIBERTY...MONTGOMERY...POLK... SAN JACINTO...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM... WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM... WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...40 AVIATION/DISCUSSION...39
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HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
318 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 318 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014 CURRENTLY AS OF 21Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS FLOW...THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE IS A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS / WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE HAS SUPPORTED SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA... NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. VISIBILITIES AT TIMES HAVE DROPPED TO 3/4 MILE WITH EVEN ONE 1/4 MILE OBSERVED AT LINTON NORTH DAKOTA. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA...CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SNOW...STUCK BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SEEN ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING. THESE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INVERSION TRAPPING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR HAS ONLY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. STILL...THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN IT HAS BEEN AS OF LATE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS AROUND THE REGION SHOWED AMOUNTS OF 0.1" OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AROUND 0.25" OVER THE FORECAST AREA...0.3-0.4" WHERE THE SNOW WAS FALLING AND 0.5" IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS EVENING...CAUSING SNOW TO SPREAD IN AND DEVELOP. SIMULTANEOUSLY...MODELS SUGGEST THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NEBRASKA WILL GET ADVECTED NORTH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR MORE QPF PRODUCTION FROM THE FORCING. ANOTHER FEATURE AIDING IN MORE QPF IS SOME NEGATIVE EPV PROGGED ON TOP OF THE F-GEN CIRCULATION...LEADING TO BANDING. LOCATION...THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE EVENING. HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED THE BULK OF THE SNOW TRAVERSING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF I-94. ON THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE 04.12Z GFS WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTHWEST OF LA CROSSE. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW WHICH IS GENERALLY THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CONCURS WITH EXTRAPOLATION OF PRESENT RADAR TRENDS. TIMING...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 22-03Z WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...THEN EXIT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 08-12Z WEDNESDAY. AMOUNTS...04.12Z NAM/GFS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR UPWARD TREND IN QPF AND THIS FORECAST HAS DONE THE SAME. DID NOT GO FULLY TOWARDS THEIR AMOUNTS SEEING LIGHTER QPF FROM THE RAP...BUT AN UPWARD TREND IS NEEDED. SREF QPF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A 0.25 INCH IS LIKELY...BUT THERE ARE EVEN A FEW MEMBERS SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF A 0.5 INCH. SHOULD THESE PAN OUT WE WOULD END UP WITH WARNING CRITERIA. RIGHT NOW...WITH COBB DATA SUGGESTING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS BETWEEN 13-16 TO 1...THINKING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 3-5 INCHES SOUTH AND WEST OF LA CROSSE. A FEW 6 INCH AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE NEGATIVE EPV. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASE QUICKLY HEADING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM WINONA TO LA CROSSE NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR BEING SUCKED INTO THE F-GEN CIRCULATION. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST UNCERTAIN ALONG AN AXIS FROM WINONA TO LA CROSSE WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5 INCHES SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. AFTER THE SNOW EXITS...MUCH OF WEDNESDAY LOOKS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER WHICH WITH SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SOME WEAK OMEGA RESULTING FROM DIURNAL HEATING...HAVE ADDED SOME FLURRIES. BULK OF THE FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 318 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014 04.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET ALL DEPICT A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH SUGGESTS A CONTINUED MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT DROP THROUGH ONTARIO AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS US BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO PUT SOME SPEED BUMPS IN THE MODERATION. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS ONTARIO ON FRIDAY HELPS PROPEL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY BLOWING OF THE FRESH SNOW WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 30 ON THURSDAY. INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD LIMIT SOME TEMPERATURE FALL THURSDAY EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOWING A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE...READINGS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE TEMPERATURE ISSUES...FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LITTLE PRECIPITATION. MUCH OF THE DEEPER SYNOPTIC FORCING IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...BUT GIVEN THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO BE AROUND...A NEED EXISTS FOR SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES. GIVEN A WARM LAYER PRESENT ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHAT PRECIP DOES OCCUR COULD EITHER BE LIQUID...SLEET OR SNOW WITH THE SNOW PROBABILITY HIGHEST TOWARDS TAYLOR COUNTY WITH DEEPER COLD AIR. SINCE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIGHT...KEPT THE LIQUID FORM AS FREEZING DRIZZLE / DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THERE TOO COULD BE ISSUES WITH LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...FAVORING A DRIZZLE ROUTE. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE A BIT TRICKY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. THE 04.12Z GFS PERSISTS ON DROPPING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT...SENDING A SURGE OF COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHICH TAKES UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT TO GET OUT OF HERE. THE ECMWF...GEM AND UKMET ON THE OTHER HAND CONTINUE TO SAY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH STAYS MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND TRACKS QUICKER TO THE EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH WARMER SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN EACH MODEL GROUP HAS STUCK TO THEIR GUNS...HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW A MODEL CONSENSUS AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL GROUP FLINCHES...THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE RAPIDLY TRENDED COLDER OR WARMER. MONDAY REMAINS MOST CONFIDENT TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 6-8C PER ECMWF. PRESENTLY HAVE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED MORE...DEPENDING ON HOW SUNDAY PLAYS OUT. A COOL DOWN THEN ENSUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. INCLUDED SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THIS TROUGH. LIMITED MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN THE LOW CHANCES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014 WITH INCOMING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW...LOOKING AT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS INTO IFR/LIFR CATEGORY AT KRST BY 03Z...LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. SNOW LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN THE 08-11Z TIME FRAME WITH A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY 11Z. 3 TO 3.5 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AT KRST. FOR KLSE...WILL SEE CONDITIONS SLIP INTO MVFR AROUND 01Z WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE 04-07Z TIME FRAME. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 09Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 12Z. 2.5 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT KLSE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ041-053>055-061. MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ086>088- 094>096. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ008>011- 018-019-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...DAS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014 LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHTS SNOWS EXITING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LAST LITTLE AREA OF FLURRIES IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN OFF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT CLOUDS STRETCH BACK ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN WISCONSIN TEMPORARILY CLEARED OUT THIS MORNING THOUGH ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH STRATUS PUSHING IN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MID CLOUDS FLOWING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM...WITH FORCING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MID-LEVEL FGEN...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SNOW OVER SE NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SNOW IS FOLLOWING THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE WHETHER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW PASSES OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND THE TEMPERATURES NEXT. TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE THERMAL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POSITIONED FROM FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE BULLISH IN PRODUCING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WITHIN THE BAND OF SNOW...BUT GENERALLY JUST BRUSH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL CAUSE A HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH...AND ADVECT VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR...HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY WITH LAKE ICE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN. THIS DRY AIR ALSO SUPPORTS KEEPING THE BAND OF SNOW SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO WILL JUST KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER WOOD AND WAUSHARA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES TO OCCUR LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM NE TO SW WITH THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR. WITH WINDS EXPECTING TO DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE DROPPED TEMPS OVER N-C AND FAR NE WISCONSIN. STILL THINK TEMPS IN E-C WISCONSIN WILL HAVE A HARD TIME TANKING DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE NE WINDS. WEDNESDAY...THE DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL TEMPS COOL OFF A COUPLE DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY...SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS WITH A FEW LOW 20S. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014 THE AREA WILL FINALLY COME OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE WITH TEMPS APPROACHING NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...AND LIKELY AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY...THEN A RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED (BUT NOT AS COLD AS START OF MARCH). THERE WILL BE A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SHOTS OF WAA...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES...A MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE IDENTIFYING THE "WARMEST" DAYS AND BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR A DRY BUT COLD NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. COMBINATION OF DRY AIR...VEERING WINDS...SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...AND ICE COVER ON LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL...SO ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES...BUT PREFER TO KEEP ANY FLURRY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL END AS WINDS TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WAA BEGINS TO RAMP UP ON THURSDAY...MAINLY ALOFT...AS 850MB TEMPS ATTEMPT TO FINALLY REACH THE 0C MARK. INCREASING MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THURSDAY EVENING. THURSDAY NOW LOOKS DRY FOR THE AREA...AS MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL ALSO BACK OFF ON POPS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI...BUT KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING OVER THE NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH. BEST MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING STAY ACROSS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP FOR CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...FEEL AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO COVER ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS ABOVE 0C AIR BRIEFLY PUSHES OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLEET AND SNOW AS THE MAIN PRECIP TYPES TO COVER THE MIXED PRECIP CHANCE. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS. PREFER TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT AND ALLOW THE MODELS TO SHOW A STRONGER SIGNAL. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH LOWER TOTALS AS YOU MOVE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN LOOK FOR CAA TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LATE IN THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS DO SHOW A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL BUT THE GFS KEEP THE AREA DRY AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRY SOLUTION AND NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP CHANCES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...THEN MODELS VARY GREATLY FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF/GEM WOULD FAVOR HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS TEMPS IN THE TEENS. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME RAIN MIX IN WITH THE SNOW...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS TO CHANGE. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014 LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THEREAFTER...EXPECT CLOUDY BUT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHILE NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL SEE PARTIAL CLEARING DUE TO THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BYPASS THE REGION TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM NE TO SW OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WILL EXIST TONIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THINKING THE VERY DRY AIR AND ICE OVER THE LAKE MAKES THE CHANCE VERY SMALL. IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW EXITS THIS AFTERNOON. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......BERSCH AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1255 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014 .UPDATE... SNOW TAPERED OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING 5000 FT CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DUE TO SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S SEEM ON TRACK. THE 06Z AND 12Z NAM AND GFS MODELS AND NOW THE 12Z CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS CAME IN WITH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN WI FOR TONIGHT/S CLIPPER SYSTEM. TOOK A BLEND OF THESE VALUES FOR PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS. EXPECTING THIS EVENT TO HAVE A BANDED STRUCTURE THAT COULD PUT DOWN 3-5 INCHES OVER A SMALL AREA. IN ADDITION...THE HIGHEST OMEGA WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI EARLY IN THE EVENT AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH LATER IN THE EVENT. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE THAT BAND WOULD SET UP...BUT I FACTORED IN A TIGHTER QPF GRADIENT SOUTHWEST OF MADISON AS A FIRST GUESS. THEREFORE...ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR IOWA...LAFAYETTE AND GREEN COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND LEFT OUT DANE AND ROCK COUNTIES FOR NOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WED MORNING FROM 5 AM THROUGH 9 AM. EXPECTING SNOW TO STILL BE FALLING IN THE MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA AREA THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR...SO EXPECT A ROUGH COMMUTE. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... VFR CIGS UNTIL LATE EVENING AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MID EVENING AND THEN BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST DURING SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE THE SNOW ENDS BY LATE MORNING. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WITH 1/2 TO 1 MILE VSBU AND IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR MSN AND AROUND MILWAUKEE NEAR 3 AM. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WED MORNING FROM 5 AM THROUGH 9 AM. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/ TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH WAA AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE THAT TRACKS EAST WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER SRN WI IN RRQ OF UPPER JET MAX THAT SHIFTS EAST OF AREA BY 12Z. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR LOCATIONS FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH BY 8 AM...BUT VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH FORCING AS SECOND WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...BUT WARM ADVECTION RAISES 925MB TEMPS ENOUGH TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH AROUND 20 IN THE NORTHEAST. TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM NEXT ROUND OF SNOW EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE IN ULD WITH LFQ OF NEXT JETLET THAT CROSSES REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WED. BEST LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND COLUMN SATURATION OVER THE SW 2/3 OF CWA...SO WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THERE TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY TO CHANCE POPS IN THE NE THIRD. 06Z NAM SIMILAR TO 00Z RUN IN MAINTAINING AN 8 TO 10 MICROBAR/SEC OMEGA MAX IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE OVER THE SW CWA...BUT HAS BOOSTED QPF UP TO 0.20 INCH. MODEST LAPSE RATES AROUND 600 MB STEEPEN ABOVE 500 MB...BUT INGREDIENTS PLOTS INDICATE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWS WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF CWA. UPPED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 3 INCHES...WITH LATER SHIFTS NEEDING TO ASSES THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW HANG ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA. SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY MOST PLACES AS SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. DID KEEP SOME SMALL POPS NEAR THE LAKE THOUGH...AS SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BRING A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN MUCH OF THE LAKE IS COVERED IN ICE THOUGH...AND SFC TO 850 MB DELTA T VALUES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES AT BEST...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW IN ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THURSDAY SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S...THOUGH STILL QUITE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MOST OF THE MODELS HOLD OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING TEMPS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...LOOKS LIKE A MIX OF PRECIP POSSIBLE FOR THIS SHORTWAVE. CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW OR SLEET THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW/SLEET/RAIN ALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE EVENT. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SOME DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE. THE BIGGEST ISSUE FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER HIGH THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...ALLOWING FOR A SLOWER RETURN OF MILDER TEMPS. GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...AS THE GFS SUGGESTS TEMPS STRUGGLING TO THE LOW 20S...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE PUSHING 40. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LITTLE PRECIP MONDAY...SO WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW. GFS FINALLY HAS THE MILDER AIR INTO WISCONSIN BY MONDAY...SO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. AVIATION/12Z TAFS... THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL EXIT EASTERN WI BY 11Z. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BROADER AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IS AT THE MS RIVER AT 10Z AND WILL BE REACHING KMSN BY 12Z...KUES AROUND 1330Z...KENW BY 14Z AND KMKE BETWEEN 14Z AND 1430Z. CIGS WILL RAPIDLY RAISE TO BETWEEN 4K FT AND 6K FT BEHIND THE SNOW. WATCHING LIGHT SNOW OVER SE MN INTO W CENTRAL WI WITH A SECOND WAVE THAT HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS HAD BEEN KEEPING NORTH OF TAF SITES. 09Z RAP NOW BRINGING A SMALL POCKET OF SNOW TO KMSN BY 15Z AND THROUGH KUES AND KMKE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST AS NEED AT ISSUANCE. NEXT ROUND OF SNOW COMES THIS EVENING WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. 00Z MODELS INDICATING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS...WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN TAF SITES AND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FOR KMSN TONIGHT. 06Z NAM TRYING TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW OVER THE SW CWA THAT COULD EDGE TOWARDS KMSN BUT WILL AWAIT LATER RUNS BEFORE RAISING AMOUNTS/LOWERING CONDITIONS && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ062-067-068. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MRC TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
427 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014 .TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH WAA AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE THAT TRACKS EAST WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER SRN WI IN RRQ OF UPPER JET MAX THAT SHIFTS EAST OF AREA BY 12Z. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR LOCATIONS FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH BY 8 AM...BUT VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH FORCING AS SECOND WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...BUT WARM ADVECTION RAISES 925MB TEMPS ENOUGH TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH AROUND 20 IN THE NORTHEAST. .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM NEXT ROUND OF SNOW EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE IN ULD WITH LFQ OF NEXT JETLET THAT CROSSES REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WED. BEST LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND COLUMN SATURATION OVER THE SW 2/3 OF CWA...SO WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THERE TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY TO CHANCE POPS IN THE NE THIRD. 06Z NAM SIMILAR TO 00Z RUN IN MAINTAINING AN 8 TO 10 MICROBAR/SEC OMEGA MAX IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE OVER THE SW CWA...BUT HAS BOOSTED QPF UP TO 0.20 INCH. MODEST LAPSE RATES AROUND 600 MB STEEPEN ABOVE 500 MB...BUT INGREDIENTS PLOTS INDICATE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWS WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF CWA. UPPED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 3 INCHES...WITH LATER SHIFTS NEEDING TO ASSES THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. .WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW HANG ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA. SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY MOST PLACES AS SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. DID KEEP SOME SMALL POPS NEAR THE LAKE THOUGH...AS SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BRING A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN MUCH OF THE LAKE IS COVERED IN ICE THOUGH...AND SFC TO 850 MB DELTA T VALUES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES AT BEST...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW IN ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THURSDAY SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S...THOUGH STILL QUITE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MOST OF THE MODELS HOLD OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING TEMPS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...LOOKS LIKE A MIX OF PRECIP POSSIBLE FOR THIS SHORTWAVE. CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW OR SLEET THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW/SLEET/RAIN ALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE EVENT. .SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SOME DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE. THE BIGGEST ISSUE FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER HIGH THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...ALLOWING FOR A SLOWER RETURN OF MILDER TEMPS. GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...AS THE GFS SUGGESTS TEMPS STRUGGLING TO THE LOW 20S...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE PUSHING 40. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LITTLE PRECIP MONDAY...SO WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW. GFS FINALLY HAS THE MILDER AIR INTO WISCONSIN BY MONDAY...SO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. .AVIATION/12Z TAFS... THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL EXIT EASTERN WI BY 11Z. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BROADER AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IS AT THE MS RIVER AT 10Z AND WILL BE REACHING KMSN BY 12Z...KUES AROUND 1330Z...KENW BY 14Z AND KMKE BETWEEN 14Z AND 1430Z. CIGS WILL RAPIDLY RAISE TO BETWEEN 4K FT AND 6K FT BEHIND THE SNOW. WATCHING LIGHT SNOW OVER SE MN INTO W CENTRAL WI WITH A SECOND WAVE THAT HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS HAD BEEN KEEPING NORTH OF TAF SITES. 09Z RAP NOW BRINGING A SMALL POCKET OF SNOW TO KMSN BY 15Z AND THROUGH KUES AND KMKE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST AS NEED AT ISSUANCE. NEXT ROUND OF SNOW COMES THIS EVENING WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. 00Z MODELS INDICATING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS...WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN TAF SITES AND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FOR KMSN TONIGHT. 06Z NAM TRYING TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW OVER THE SW CWA THAT COULD EDGE TOWARDS KMSN BUT WILL AWAIT LATER RUNS BEFORE RAISING AMOUNTS/LOWERING CONDITIONS && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1145 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ISSUED AT 212 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014 LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE LEADING EDGE OF A BAND OF SNOW IS ALREADY APPROACHING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ALONG A MID-LEVEL FGEN/WARM ADVECTION ZONE. DISTANCE/SPEED TOOL HAS THIS BAND OF SNOW MOVING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN 23-00Z THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SNOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST...SNOW TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE ESE TO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING AND REACH LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE WAVES...FORCING IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...700-500MB FGEN AND WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PUSH THE AREA OF SNOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT SOME MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY AREA OF SNOW MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA THIS EVENING ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THEN MERGE WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...THINK ALL AREAS WILL SEE DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THOUGH PIN POINTING WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL IS RATHER DIFFICULT DUE TO THE UNORGANIZED FORCING. ADDING TO THE COMPLEXITY IS A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGH END SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. BEST GUESS IS NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...FROM TOMAHAWK TO STURGEON BAY WHERE HAVE ABOUT 2 INCHES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY...AND BE WINDING DOWN TOWARDS THE START OF THE MORNING COMMUTE...SO DO NOT PLAN ON ANY ADVISORIES. BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT SLICK ROADS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST. BUT EVEN AFTER THIS TIME...THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE OVERHEAD AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE LEFTOVER THROUGH 700-600MB UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE THE SHORTWAVES PULLING OUT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL REACH UP TO A HALF INCH...AND MUCH OF THAT WILL COME EARLY IN THE MORNING. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THERE WARMING TREND AND REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ISSUED AT 212 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014 CONTINUED NEAR ZONAL-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. SPREAD SEEN IN MODELS/ENSEMBLES LATER PERIODS WITH HOW HANDLE ENERGY COMING INTO PACIFIC COAST AND EFFECTS ON UPPER RIDGE. TRENDS ARE FOR TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO NORMS THROUGH PERIOD WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL BLEND FOR NEXT MONDAY SHOWING UPPER 30S ATTM. A REAL CONTRAST FROM TODAY. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AT ISSUE AGAIN TUE NIGHT AS WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH FLOW. WAA SETS UP OVER BAROCLINIC ZONE TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF WI. WEAK FGEN/JET SUPPORT...PASSES MAINLY SOUTH OF CWA. AGAIN MODELS TRENDING TOWARD DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HAVE TIGHTENED GRADIENT UP FOR SNOW-NO SNOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO NORTHERN WI. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. NEXT ISSUE WITH UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. FEATURE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CANADA. MODELS SHOWING A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FOCUS OF PCPN CHANCES THU OVER NORTHWEST WI AND NORTHEAST MN...MOVING INTO CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH STATE. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014 AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW PASSING OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. AROUND DAYBREAK CIGS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO A MIX OF VFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......TE AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
940 PM PST WED MAR 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT FROM 20Z THURSDAY TO 17Z FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE HANFORD WARNING/ FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. && .SYNOPSIS... A CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES MOSTLY TO THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .DISCUSSION... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 44N/119W...WEST OF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. A DEEPER MOISTURE FETCH IS BECOMING ENTRAINED IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW...AND THIS COULD BRING PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH THAN WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. BOTH THE 02Z HIGH-RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH /HRRR/ MODEL AND THE 12Z ECMWF BRING THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH THAN EITHER THE 00Z NAM-12 OR THE 00Z GFS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE STORM ON BOTH THE HRRR AND THE ECMWF...WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING FRESNO AROUND 12Z /0400 PST/ THURSDAY...HANFORD AND VISALIA AN HOUR LATER...AND BAKERSFIELD AROUND 16Z /0800 PST/. THE 02Z HRRR RUN ENDS AT 16Z THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF ENDS THE PRECIPITATION AT BAKERSFIELD AROUND 18Z /1000 PST/. BECAUSE OF THE GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE HRRR AND ECMWF...CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SOUTH OF THE ORIGINAL POP FIELD...EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE DUE TO THE LACK OF SUPPORT FROM EITHER THE NAM-12 OR THE GFS...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE NAM-12 HAS A 45-KT 700-MB JET OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT NEAR MOJAVE. SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...REACHING THEIR STRONGEST BETWEEN 09-12Z /0100-0400 PST/ FRIDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TEHACHAPI PASS AND MOJAVE. PER COORDINATION WITH WFO OXNARD...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE TEHACHAPI PASS AND THE DESERT FROM BELOW THE PASS WESTWARD...INCLUDING MOJAVE AND ROSAMOND...FROM 20Z /1200 PST/ THURSDAY TO 17Z /0900 PST/ FRIDAY. && .AVIATION... AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE TEHACHAPI RANGE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEHACHAPI MTNS FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE THRU 22Z THURSDAY...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR PASSES AND CANYONS IN KERN COUNTY MTNS/DESERT...INCLUDING AROUND MOJAVE...AFTER 20Z THURSDAY. && .PREV DISC... /ISSUED 152 PM PST WED MAR 5 2014/ DISCUSSION...UNDER WEAK RIDGING, SKIES ARE MAINLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LATEST RUN OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS RAIN ACTIVITY REACHING THE YOSEMITE AREA AFTER 10 PM WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATER DURING THE NIGHT THE NAM DOWNSCALED MODEL BRINGS PRECIPITATION SOUTH TO ABOUT MADERA AND NORTH FRESNO BEFORE SHIFT ALL RAIN OR HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE EAST. CURRENT FORECAST OF A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET. FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND FORECAST MODELS BUILD A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA FOR DRY AND RATHER WARM WEATHER. THE NEXT WEAKENING SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CLIP THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT AGAIN IT APPEARS RATHER WEAK. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... NONE. && .CERTAINTY... THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM. THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD. CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR KFAT 03-05 84:1929 46:1981 57:1890 31:1971 KFAT 03-06 86:1899 48:1952 54:2011 31:1971 KFAT 03-07 84:1899 48:1918 57:1986 30:1969 KBFL 03-05 86:1929 50:1981 58:1975 30:1923 KBFL 03-06 82:1972 51:1958 57:1972 30:1903 KBFL 03-07 83:1993 51:1919 63:1975 28:1907 && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT /CAZ095-099/. && $$ PUBLIC...SANGER AVN/FW...BSO PREV DISCUSSION...DUDLEY SYNOPSIS...SANGER WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
846 PM PST WED MAR 5 2014 .UPDATE... AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS EVENING. AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH, WITH MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. GOOD INSTABILITY AND UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AS THEY CROSS THE SIERRA CREST BUT STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN LASSEN AND EASTERN PLUMAS COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE ABOVE 8000 FEET BASED ON PROFILER AND RADAR DATA IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. HOWEVER HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DROP SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 7500 FEET. THE RIDGE WINDS AROUND TAHOE HAVE DROPPED OFF ABOUT 20 MPH OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS WITH GUSTS NEAR AND BELOW 60 MPH. WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO FOR THE FRONT TO APPROACH THE TAHOE BASIN BEFORE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS CAN MIX DOWN IN THE RENO-CARSON AREA. THE CURRENT NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT TAKES AWAY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL ALONG HIGHWAY 395, THOUGH WILL HELP FUNNEL WINDS THROUGH NORTH-SOUTH VALLEYS AND NEAR THE RENO AIRPORT. FARTHER NORTH, WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY, WHERE THE FRONT SHOULD PASS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BRONG && .SYNOPSIS... A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE SIERRA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ON THURSDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK STORM MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM PST WED MAR 5 2014/ SHORT TERM... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THIS FIRST STORM TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH. IN THE SIERRA, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT AND UPPER JET APPROACH. RAIN MAY COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE CREST. WITH NEARLY ISOTHERMAL SOUNDINGS BELOW 700MB - SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH MOST OF TONIGHT, ABOVE 8000-8500 FEET, LEADING TO SNOW ONLY AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS. AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 6000-7000 FT RANGE BUT PRECIP IS WINDING DOWN BY THEN. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY WAVE HELPING REGENERATE SHOWERS ALONG THE SIERRA NORTH OF MARKLEEVILLE THURSDAY, WITH SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6500 FT. WHILE WE EXPECT SHADOWING IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA WITH LIMITED OBVIOUS FORCING FOR SPILLOVER, THE RECENT HRRR RUNS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ECMWF SHOW SOME OCCURRING BETWEEN 3-9Z. WE`RE SIDING WITH THE MORE SHADOWED SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW, BUT I JUST WANTED TO NOTE THIS SPILLOVER IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY AND WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. PERHAPS THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH THIS STORM IS WIND IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA. RECENT GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT AS MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW NEARS 50 KNOTS. POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS TONIGHT INTO THE 50-60 MPH RANGE FROM SURPRISE VALLEY TO RENO/MINDEN THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY. BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS ONLY MEDIUM AS PREDICTABILITY OF THESE DOWNSLOPE EVENTS IS NORMALLY TRICKY AT BEST. EVEN JUST SUBTLE CHANGES IN LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND/OR WIND DIRECTION CAN ALTER THE OUTCOME. BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY, GOOD MIXING AND A SOLID PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WILL EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY FROM SURPRISE VALLEY-RENO/MINDEN THROUGH TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES WILL ALSO BE POSTED FOR TAHOE/PYRAMID. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. FRIDAY/SATURDAY LOOK QUIET. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 50S (SEASONABLE) BUT THEN WARM INTO THE 60S SATURDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST WE`VE SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK - WITH UPPER 20S IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS. CS LONG TERM... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH SIERRA SNOWFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NEXT WEEK. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DRAWING A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY BUT HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PRECIPITATION ONSET. MAIN CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO DECREASE POPS SUNDAY AND INCREASE POPS MONDAY TO REFLECT THE DELAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAHOE BASIN INTO LASSEN COUNTY. THIS LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 8500 FEET SUNDAY FALLING TO 7500 ON MONDAY AS A JET AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPILL OVER INTO WESTERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES. STILL SOME MODEST DISCREPANCIES IN RESOLVING THE SHORTWAVE`S PROGRESSION AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND PUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHOWERS DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A DRIER PERIOD THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT STILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BEGINNING TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE CUTTING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WHILE THE EC BUILDS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. HAVE SIDED TOWARDS THE EC AS SEVERAL GEFS MEMBERS KEEP THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AND HAVE KEEP US DRY IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. OVERALL, LOOKING FOR MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TUESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. FUENTES AVIATION... PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS LIKELY FOR THE SIERRA AS WELL. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS IS MEDIUM TO HIGH. FOR RNO/CXP - S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS. DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AT RNO IS POSSIBLE, 30% CHANCE, WHICH COULD BRING GUSTS ABOVE 40 KTS AND ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS AT TIMES BETWEEN 4Z-8Z TONIGHT. LLWS AND TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TONIGHT ON APPROACH/DEPARTURE ROUTES WITH SLIDE MOUNTAIN (10KFT MSL) FORECAST WINDS OF 50 KTS AND GUSTS TO 75 KTS. THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A SOLID GRADIENT WIND DAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS 30-35 KTS. WINDS FORECAST TO SWITCH FROM S/SW TO W/NW AFTER 18Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN. NO CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FROM PRECIPITATION AS THE LEE OF SIERRA SHOULD LARGELY BE SHADOWED THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF SOME SPILLOVER SHOWERS BETWEEN 4-8Z. FOR TRK/TVL - WHILE S/SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES, MAIN ISSUE IS PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS, VSBY, AND MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION DUE TO RAIN AFTER 3Z TONIGHT. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH TONIGHT, ABOVE 8000 FT MSL, LEADING TO RAIN AT TRK/TVL. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z/THURSDAY AS STORM IS WINDING DOWN. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE TURBULENCE AND LLWS IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH TRK/TVL TONIGHT. FOR MMH - TERMINAL IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS INCOMING STORM THOUGH GUSTY W/SW WINDS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH TURBULENCE AND LLWS LIKELY. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 12-18Z/THURSDAY BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION IS A GIVEN THOUGH. CS && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PYRAMID LAKE IN NVZ004. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY NVZ003-005. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THURSDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002. CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY CAZ070. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THURSDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
341 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. A COLD AND SOAKING RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE GULF LOW TODAY. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE WEDGE- RIDGE PATTERN THAT IS IN PLACE. THE 05Z HRRR INDICATED SPOTTY RAIN IN THE SOUTH PART 700 AM TO 1100 AM WITH THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD REACHING THE CSRA AROUND 1100 AM...THE COLUMBIA AREA ABOUT 100 PM...AND THE LANCASTER AREA AROUND 300 PM. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM TODAY BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE PATTERN. WET- BULB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH PART EARLY THIS MORNING SO EVEN WITH AN EARLIER PRECIPITATION START TIME IT SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND FREEZING IN THE NORTH PART BUT WITH THE LATER START TIME AND DIURNAL RECOVERY IT SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID THERE AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE DURING THE EVENING AND HINT AT SOME MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTTING OCCURRING LATE. FORECASTED THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BELOW-FREEZING LAYER AROUND 2000 FEET IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART. THE WARM-NOSE TEMPERATURE ABOVE THIS LAYER APPEARS QUITE WARM. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF MOS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT THE FARTHER NORTH LOCATION OF CHARLOTTE 33 TO 35. WE RAN THE GFS TOP- DOWN METHOD USING BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AND THE RESULT WAS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL LINGER FRIDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE H5 CUT-OFF LOW OVERHEAD DURING THAT TIME. EXPECT CLOUDINESS AND CONTINUED LIKELY RAIN FRIDAY BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE MAIN LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO HIGH BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND THE COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW FRIDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND SREF GUIDANCE WERE IN AGREEMENT FORECASTING TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. DRYING SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY RIDGING SATURDAY. UNDER SUNNY SKIES IT SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY OCCUR TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT THE GREATER CHANCE HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE AROUND 30 PERCENT. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS DISPLAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MOSTLY VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AFTER 09Z PROVIDING MVFR CEILINGS ALL TERMINALS AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 14Z WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 16Z AGS/DNL/OGB. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH AROUND 12Z AND EVEN STRONGER BY 18Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
356 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 Latest low cloud enhanced satellite loop shows stratus slowly building northwest across north central Kansas along and just west of the ridge axis. Further east low clouds were breaking up and also reforming in spots. Areas where skies cleared temperatures dropped into the teens while near steady temperatures in the mid and upper 20s continued under the cloud cover. RAP soundings suggest that clouds will linger through mid afternoon out west while the 06Z NAM suggest around mid day. Expect clouds to slowly dissipate after 17Z with mostly sunny skies by 21Z. Increasing southerly winds and 850 mb temps warming into the 6 to 10C will see highs in the mid 40s far northeast to the lower 50s in north central Kansas. Also patchy fog will continue through mid morning and may become dense in a few areas. Warm advection continues through the night across the CWA with winds south to southwest. Shortwave trough moving across southern Canada and the Northern Plains will push a frontal boundary southeast. The front should extend from northeast Nebraska to a low over the Oklahoma Panhandle by 12Z Friday. Lows tonight will fall back into the lower 30s with partly cloudy skies in the north and mostly clear skies in the south half of the CWA. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 By Friday morning, a mid-level trough will be in place over the Northern Plains stretching toward the central Rockies. Models show this trough deepening a bit as it advances eastward toward the Central Plains Friday into Saturday. This deepening trough will help to push a cold front southward into the area Friday afternoon. Models seem to be trending a bit faster with bringing this cold front into far north central Kansas by around 18z Friday and having it progress southeast of the area by early to mid evening. With this timing of the frontal passage, expect southerly winds to prevail through much of the day across east central Kansas with a shift to the north behind the front across northern Kansas during the afternoon hours. As a result, could see a spread in high temperatures for Friday, ranging from the lower 50s near the Kansas/Nebraska border to the upper 50s and possibly even near 60 degrees over east central Kansas. Models show modest low to mid-level frontogenesis developing behind the front, so anticipate the development of some post-frontal precipitation. This light precipitation may start as early as late afternoon across far north central Kansas, but the better lift looks to move through during the evening and overnight hours. There are still model discrepancies with regards to how much QPF we can expect with this system. The ECMWF continues to bring the most QPF to the area while the GFS and NAM keep lower QPF amounts. There is also still some uncertainty with just how quickly this precipitation will exit southeast of the area, with the NAM being the fastest in having precipitation exit the area by 12z Saturday while the GFS/ECMWF/GEM keep some light precipitation lingering across east central Kansas through much of the day on Saturday. With this uncertainty in the timing and amount of precipitation over the area, have kept PoPs less than 50 percent Friday night into Saturday. As for precipitation type, with the mild temperatures during the day on Friday, precipitation will likely start off as rain with this system. Model soundings are in fairly good agreement in showing the temperature profiles in the low to mid-levels of the atmosphere cooling off as surface temperatures drop during the evening hours, so do not see a warm nose present in these soundings as temperatures drop below freezing. As a result, as temperatures cool into the mid/upper 20s by Saturday morning, expect any light precipitation to transition from rain over to snow. If a wintry mix were to occur, it should be very short-lived. With the frontogenetical forcing shifting east of the area by Saturday morning, any lingering precipitation during the day on Saturday looks to be supported by some isentropic lift within the 295k-310k layer. High temperatures for Saturday look to reach into the mid/upper 30s to low 40s, so could see precipitation transitioning from snow back over to rain during the late morning and afternoon hours with any lingering light precipitation. Precipitation amounts with this system look to be light, with snow accumulations likely around one inch or less. This mid-level trough will progress east of the area on Sunday with surface high pressure moving in behind this system Saturday night and progressing into the southeastern U.S. by Sunday. As a result, expect southwesterly surface flow on Sunday which will aid in decent waa and temperatures moderating back into the mid/upper 50s and possibly even low 60s across north central Kansas as models show a thermal ridge building in across western Kansas. Monday continues to look to be the warmest day in the forecast as the steady southwesterly flow further supports waa through the day. Have trended a few degrees warmer with highs in the mid/upper 60s and possibly even into the lower 70s over north central Kansas as that well-pronounced thermal ridge remains in place just west of the area. Models show another cold front tracking over the area sometime Monday night into Tuesday with some modest post-frontal lift present. GFS/ECMWF both pick up on the potential for some precipitation, especially across northern and far northeast Kansas Tuesday into Wednesday, however there is still a great deal of uncertainty with the timing and tracking of this system so only have slight to low-end chance PoPs in for that period. Expect a bit of a downward trend with temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with a northerly surface flow in place, resulting in highs dropping back into the 40s by Wednesday. While most of this precipitation looks to stay in the form of rain, low temperatures Tuesday night may drop into the low/mid 30s so cannot rule out a mix of rain/snow overnight into Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued at 1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 Expect stratus ceilings that will vary between MVFR and VFR through the night. KFOE may see periods of IFR ceilings. Visibilities should be around 4SM, though if skies clear for a while later tonight then patchy ground fog may develop. Model forecast soundings show the boundary layer mixing deep enough for scattered stratus by the mid and late morning hours. Expect VFR conditions through the afternoon and evening. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM...Hennecke AVIATION...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
334 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .SHORT TERM... A 1012MB SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WAS ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 200 MILES SE OF MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER LARGE DIVERGENCE STRUCTURE ALOFT. MEANWHILE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LOUISIANA MOVING EASTWARD WITH YET ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE BASE OF TROUGH OVER NE TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE LOCAL AREA WAS CURRENTLY IN A RELATIVE DRY SLOT BETWEEN SYSTEMS THAT SHOULD FILL DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS UNDER INCREASING DYNAMICS AND OMEGA BY 18Z. GFS TIME-HEIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SHARP INFLUENCES FROM COLD POOL TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT BUT STILL MAINTAIN A PRECIPITATION LOADED WARMER PSEUDO PROFILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO PROVIDE SHOWERS INTERSPERSED WITHIN STRATIFORM RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND WRF 3KM LOCAL SCALE MODELS AGREE ON ONSET OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AROUND 18Z AS COLD POOL PASSES OVERHEAD FROM WEST-TO-EAST. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE HOURLY POPS WITH GENERALLY 20 PERCENT LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING INCREMENTING UPWARDS TO 70 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN WALKING DOWN AGAIN THIS EVENING. DESPITE DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR A SLOW OR STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND TODAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPS. AFTER THIS FEATURE WORKS OUT OF THE AREA TODAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF THIS WEEKEND SHOULD FEATURE A WARMING TREND UNDER ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. .LONG TERM... AS HAS BEEN THE CASE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH SHORT WAVELENGTH NATURE OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GREATER DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE WHETHER TO SYNC THE FLOW OR MAINTAIN DISCONTINUOUS SPACING OF THE INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES BOTH IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES. THE ECMWF INDICATES A LARGE ANOMALY LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OVER WESTERN MEXICO VIA A REX BLOCK PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT THEN PROGRESSES EAST WHILE MAINTAINING CONNECTIVITY WITH NORTHERN BRANCH CYCLONE...WITH YET THE NEXT KICKER ON ITS HEALS IN THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THE SURFACE REFLECTION LOW REMAINS RATHER WEAKLY INDICATED PER ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE GFS SHOWS A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERN BRANCH CYCLONE ALOFT THAT INDUCES A 1006MB BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH CONNECTION TO THE LAGGING NORTHERN SYSTEM OVER TEXAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL THAT SAID...THE BULK OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL PROBABLY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT CONSIDERATIONS OVER LAND AREAS FOR TUESDAY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF ANY GULF LOW THAT DOES FORM AND INTEGRITY OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY ROBUST BY EITHER MODEL`S SCENARIO. THE ECMWF MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE PROBLEMATIC FOR LAND AREAS GIVEN COLD POOL PASSAGE THAT MAY DESTABILIZE COLUMN FOR SOME SMALL HAIL CONSIDERATIONS. AT THIS TIME...LEANING TOWARDS GFS BUT STILL RESERVING SOME CAUTIOUS CONFIDENCE ON ANY EXPECTED OUTCOMES. NEXT BIG DIFFERENCE COMES ON ENSUING SYSTEM. BOTH SHOW CONSIDERABLE COOLING FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER FREEZE OR AT LEAST KILLING FROST SITUATION FROM THE 14TH. GIVEN THE TENDENCIES OF THIS COLD WINTER...WOULD NOT THINK TOO FAR-FETCHED DESPITE THE LATENESS OF SUCH COLD AIR. IT WOULD BE RARE IN THAT THE LAST TIME...AND IN SOME CASES THE ONLY TIME... THIS DATE SAW BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WAS MARCH 14TH 1993 WHEN MOST OF THE DAILY RECORDS WERE SET ACROSS THE AREA THAT DAY. 24/RR && .AVIATION... MOST TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VFR CEILINGS BUT THEY ARE RIGHT AT 3000 FEET. A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS SHOULD BRING LOWER CLOUDS BACK TO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SHOWERS. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MVFR DECKS AND -RA. NOT THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SO JUST GOING WITH SHRA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO INCREASE FROM KHUM TO MSY/NEW AND ASD THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES FROM DEEPENING SFC LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT BUT LOW CLOUDS LIKELY STILL STICKING AROUND. && .MARINE... MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE NOW THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA HAS TIGHTENED AND CAUSED WINDS TO INCREASE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN HALF HAS CAUSED EVEN MORE ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS. IT SEEMS TO MAKE MORE SENSE TO ISSUE A LONG TERM SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HANDLE THE 20-25 KNOT WINDS RATHER THAN A 3 HR LONG SCA SINCE THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED WINDS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE MOST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GULF. THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY FADE FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEND TO A WEAK WIND FIELD AND LITTLE SEA/WAVE ACTION. && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 53 39 60 43 / 70 20 10 10 BTR 56 39 60 43 / 70 10 10 10 ASD 64 42 58 44 / 70 30 10 10 MSY 61 45 57 47 / 70 20 10 10 GPT 62 44 58 47 / 70 40 10 10 PQL 61 41 60 42 / 70 50 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ 24/RR MEFFER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
312 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP COVERAGE AND TYPE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WE FOLLOWED A BLEND...BUT LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF THAN THE GFS. RADAR SHOWED ECHOES OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT KINL/KCDD AT TIMES. MORE RETURNS WERE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA REVEAL SOME FREEZING RAIN/MIXED PRECIP. WE CONFINED MENTION OF PRECIP TO OUR NORTHERN MINNESOTA ZONES FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RES MODELS. A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE SNOW/FREEZING PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY. STRATUS CLOUDS WERE SURGING NORTH THIS MORNING AND THE RAP SHOWS THEY SHOULD COVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY AND WE HAVE HIGHS FROM THE MID TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH AS WELL. WE HAVE A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE HAVING HIGHEST POPS OVER THE FAR NORTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...AND SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL FAR SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE COOLER ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT MORE OF A MIX. AT THIS TIME...WE CONTINUED A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE BORDERLAND SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW. COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CONSIDER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DIP TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID TWENTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT/LOW MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID TWENTIES TOWARD INTERNATIONAL FALLS...AND THE MID THIRTIES OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 A VERY ACTIVE NRN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE FORECAST CHALLENGING FOR SEVERAL REASONS. CONFIDENCE WILL BE HIGHEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS INITIAL MID LVL TROF MOVES EAST. A RELATIVELY QUIET AND COLD SATURDAY IS EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MDLS AGREE THAT AT MID LVLS A SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL RESIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES SRN ALBERTA WITH A BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT FROM ALBERTA INTO THE LOWER GT LAKES. ITS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE MDLS SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL SFC LOWS WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE SE. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIBBONS MAKES THE FCST TEMPS/PTYPES/POPS LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR IS PULLED INTO THE CWA UNDER THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN THAT ZL AND PERHAPS EVEN RAIN MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER SRN CWA WHERE BDRY LYR WARMING HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. THIS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SUNDAY BUT WILL LEAVE SNOW IN FCST FOR NOW. EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY MONDAY AS MAX TEMPS IN SRN CWA MAY BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER IF LATEST EC/GEM ARE CORRECT. WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIP FOCUSED OVER THE NRN TIER OF MN ZONES CLOSER TO POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW. MDLS AGREE THAT TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO COLDER AIR WITH MAX TEMPS LOWERING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM MONDAYS VALUES. GFS/EC AGREE THAT A MID LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS MIDWEEK. HOWEVER THE RESULTING DOWNSTREAM TROFS ARE NOT IN SYNC WHICH PROMOTES AN INCREASING DIFFERENCE IN PLACEMENT OF LOW LVL THERMAL TROUGH. GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN EC AT THIS POINT..ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD TO CLIMO OR BELOW CLIMO AFTER THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF EARLY WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 29 23 31 4 / 20 50 20 10 INL 30 19 25 -5 / 60 80 20 10 BRD 33 25 29 -1 / 10 20 10 0 HYR 34 23 35 6 / 10 40 30 10 ASX 33 23 35 9 / 10 50 30 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MELDE LONG TERM...CANNON AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
402 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FURTHER EAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SSWD INTO EASTERN TX. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA AND NRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A SECOND LOW NOTED OFF THE COAST OF OREGON. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH OVERCAST CONDS EXTENDING FROM MONTANA EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS STREAMED INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GARDEN CITY KS...TO CONCORDIA KS...TO NORFOLK NEBRASKA. THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTH NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOLNS...THIS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. EAST OF THIS FEATURE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT...WHICH HAS LED TO A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. 2 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 23 AT BROKEN BOW...TO 35 DEGREES AT VALENTINE && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 TEMPERATURES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR TODAY...SURFACE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 10C TO 12C...HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST ARE ON TRACK. THE ONE THING WHICH MAY BUST THE FORECAST IS THE PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDINESS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS HIGH CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. EVEN WITH THE LIMITED CLOUD COVER...DECENT MIXING SHOULD TRUMP ANY EFFECTS OF CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...INCREASED HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE AND UTILIZED MIXED H85 TEMPS FOR HIGHS TDY. FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NRN MINNESOTA...FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. LIFT WILL BE DECENT WITH THE FROPA...HOWEVER WITH THE MID LAYERS BEING FAIRLY DRY...DECIDED TO LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AS A SECOND...STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD TONIGHT...THANKS TO ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR SNOW TO THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AGAIN...QPF`S WILL BE LIGHT AS TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PCPN TO REACH THE SURFACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE FAR NORTH...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH A COLDER ARCTIC FRONT TO FOLLOW MIDDAY. SOUNDINGS ARE DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH TOP DOWN SATURATION NEEDED FOR PRECIP TO HIT THE GROUND. TEMPS IN THE MORNING FOR THE MOST PART NEAR OR ABOVE THE FREEZING...AND TEMPS JUST OFF THE SFC SHOULD BE ABOVE ZERO...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO START OUT AS RAIN...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON...FROM N TO S. AS FOR HIGHS...LOOKING LIKE EARLY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...MAYBE EARLY MORNING HIGHS NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER. AS FOR PRECIP TOTALS...WITH THE TOP DOWN SATURATION...AM CONCERNED MODELS MAYBE OVER DOWN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VARIES AS BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE ABLE TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT...THE LOWER LEVELS DRY QUICKLY. RADAR RETURNS ARE LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE LIGHTER RETURNS MAY NOT BE REACHING THE GROUND. OVERALL COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS...AND SNOWFALL TOTALS OF LESS THAN AN INCH. SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A COOL MARCH DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE SE WITH RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPS SURGE BACK TO 10C TO 15C. GFS EVEN WARMS SW NEB TO NEAR 17C AT 850 MB. GUIDANCE INTO THE 60S AND A FEW TAP 70...AND SEE NO REASON TO GO AGAINST THIS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH MOST AREAS LESS THAN A 5 DEGREE SPREAD FOR HIGHS. MORE UNCERTAIN DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY. NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS ACROSS NW NEB TO THE LOWER 60S...WHILE ANOTHER MID TO UPPER 60S /AND POSSIBLY 70/ AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WARM TEMPS WILL PROMOTE P TYPE AS RAIN AS LOWS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS NRN ZONES COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ALTHOUGH AFTER 2 DAYS IN THE 60S...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT FROM ANY OF THE SNOW. COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 VFR CONDITIONS FOR KLBF AND KVTN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BECOME BROKEN BY EARLY EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20012G18KT AT KVTN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CLB SHORT TERM...CLB LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
356 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014 ...BREEZY AND VERY WARM TODAY AND WHILE WE WILL COOL DOWN FRI-SAT WE ARE STILL IN FOR MORE SPECTACULAR SPRING WARMTH SUN-MON... ALOFT: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE N AMERICA WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL ADVANCE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS TROF WILL BEGIN TO DIG SE TONIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES DEEPER INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...A MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES IS OVER THE NE STATES AND QUEBEC...AND ENCOMPASSED THE ENTIRE ERN USA. THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR. A FRESH POLAR FRONT WAS ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER. A WEAK LOW WILL HEAD E TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK FRI. IN ITS WAKE...THE FRONT WILL DROP S THRU THE PLAINS. IT WILL MOVE INTO S-CNTRL NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT...BISECTING THE FCST AREA FROM ROUGHLY BEAVER CITY- FULLERTON NEB AT DAWN FRI. STRATUS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT E-SE-S OF THE FCST AREA...AND GRADUALLY CREEPING N. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON IT AND WE USED IT TO GUIDE THE FCST. THRU SUNRISE: PATCHY CIRROSTRATUS WILL MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL SUNRISE AWAY FROM LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM OVER N-CNTRL KS. VISIBILITIES ARE 4-5 MI AT 0830Z. IT ALL DEPENDS ON WINDS WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE S AND IF STRATUS MOVES IN. TODAY: OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY UNDER PATCHES OF 25K FT CIRROSTRATUS. BREEZY S WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH N OF NEB HWY 6. WINDS WERE NUDGED UPWARD 5 MPH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. A LEE- SIDE TROF WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN...STRENGTHENING THE PRES GRADIENT. WE MAY HAVE A STRATUS PROBLEM S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES THRU MIDDAY. MIXING AND THE THIN NATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ITS GRADUAL EROSION. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON ITS ULTIMATE EXTENT AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS. HIGH TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT. WAS PLANNING ON RAISING TEMPS ANOTHER 2-3F E OF HWY 281...BUT REFRAINED BECAUSE STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. TONIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FRZG. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY SUNSET... BUT SHOULD STILL BE GUSTY THRU THE EVENING HOURS. DO WE HAVE A FOG PROBLEM TOWARD DAWN FRI? NOT SURE BUT THIS NEEDS FURTHER EVALUATION BY THE DAY SHIFT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FRONTAL TROF MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-4 DEGS N OF NEB HWY 6. THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS /CONSRAW/ RULES IN THESE SITUATIONS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE BY 5 AM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 THRU 12Z: VFR SKC INITIALLY THEN SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS INVADE. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH THU: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS GRADUALLY BECOMING A CIG AROUND 25K FT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 32 KTS 18Z-22Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH THU EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS DESCENDING TO 20K FT. SOME MID- LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN NEAR 06Z. DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDS AND WHILE THERE COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 23 KTS...EXPECT WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS. LLWS COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT IT HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED YET DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT. THE 18Z/00Z NAM HAVE IT. IF WE SEE IT IN THE 06Z CYCLE...WE WILL INCLUDE IT WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB LONG TERM... AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 THE FCST NOW HAS PATCHY FOG FROM HEBRON/GENEVA DOWN INTO N-CNTRL KS. WHERE DAYTIME STRATUS DISSIPATED...VISIBILITIES ARE DROPPING. HEBRON AND BELOIT ARE DOWN TO 5 MI. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT...SO WE ARE CONSERVATIVE. OTHERWISE...A FINE NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S WINDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 854 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST...CONTINUE TO THINK WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL...SO WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED DOWN LATEST FORECAST LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES TO COME IN BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH 01Z RAP GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR AREA...ONLY MAXING OUT AT AROUND 55KTS NEAR 28000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AS WELL AS INCREASED MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC ALONG THE MID LEVEL JET AXIS. ALL THAT BEING SAID...MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY LACKING. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS FROM THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT. GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL SUGGEST MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A RESULTANT LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND SUCH CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA BY 06Z...WITH THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A WARM NIGHT TONIGHT WHEN COMPARE TO LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD THEN PROMOTE A WARMER DAY ON THURSDAY WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S CURRENTLY FORECAST. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS LIE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE START AND END OF THE PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES. THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE CWA SITS UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST AND A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COAST. DURING THE THURS EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT THAT WESTERN CONUS DISTURBANCE IS THE FEATURE OF INTEREST...AS IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...AND TOGETHER WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...LOOK TO RESULT IN A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES N/NE TOWARD ONTARIO BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY PRESENT THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CWA...AND OVERALL THERE HASNT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...NOT BAD AGREEMENT BUT THERE REMAIN DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT. ONE OF THE FIRST QUESTIONS THAT ARISES IS WHEN DOES PRECIP ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA...MOST MODELS ARE TRENDED TOWARD THE POTENTIAL CREEPING INTO FAR NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY..WITH THE ECMWF ON THE SLOWER SIDE. DECIDED TO INSERT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP PRIOR TO 18Z...WITH POPS RAMPING UP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SC NEB...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR KS POST 00Z...THOUGH HOW MUCH WILL LINGER INTO THAT PERIOD REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. DID BUMP UP POPS...MAINLY IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CWA ALREADY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MODEL TIMING NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE FRONT IN A SW/NE ORIENTATION ROUGHLY HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRUCKING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE CWA NEAR MIDDAY...USHERING IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE REGION. SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH EXPECTED. WITH COLDER AIR ALSO ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH...THINKING THAT HIGHS FOR THE DAY /CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH/ WILL BE MET EARLY ON...PERHAPS NEAR MIDDAY...WITH STEADY/FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION TYPE CERTAINLY ISNT CLEAR CUT AT THIS POINT...WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED TO START OFF...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM N TO S...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING IS NOT HIGH. AT THIS POINT THINKING THAT THE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY SNOW. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO...THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW /OR LACK OF/ IS OBVIOUSLY GOING TO PLAY A BIG PART...BUT AT THIS POINT HAVE TOTALS IN THE HALF INCH TO 1 INCH RANGE. HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BETTER FORCING HAVING SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...AND IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO GET THE COLDER AIR OUT...SO HIGHS ON SATURDAY CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID 30S EAST /CLOSER TO THE SFC HIGH/ AND MID 40S FURTHER WEST /WHERE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS STARTING TO WORK IN/. THEN COMES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...THESE TWO DAYS ARE THE WARMEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME BROAD RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BRINGING ALONG A NICE INCREASE IN TEMPS ALOFT /PERHAPS UP TO 15C AT 850MB/. COMBINED WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SW/WRLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING WITH THE WINDS...HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS IN THE FORECAST. A READING NEAR 70 NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE SW...BUT NOT GOING QUITE THAT HIGH YET. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS TO SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE PLAINS. SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH TIMING/LOCATION...SO DIDNT GO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS BOTH DAYS IS NOT HIGH...IF THE SYSTEM STAYS CLOSER TO THE LATEST ECMWF RUN...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED. PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 THRU 12Z: VFR SKC INITIALLY THEN SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS INVADE. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH THU: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS GRADUALLY BECOMING A CIG AROUND 25K FT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 32 KTS 18Z-22Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH THU EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS DESCENDING TO 20K FT. SOME MID- LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN NEAR 06Z. DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDS AND WHILE THERE COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 23 KTS...EXPECT WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS. LLWS COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT IT HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED YET DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT. THE 18Z/00Z NAM HAVE IT. IF WE SEE IT IN THE 06Z CYCLE...WE WILL INCLUDE IT WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...BRYANT LONG TERM...ADO AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
138 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 138 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 5 AM CST THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE BAND OF PRECIPIATION FROM NEAR BOWBELLS THROUGH GARRISON. BASED UPON MULITPLE OBSERVATIONS OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION REAHCING THE SURFACE UNDER THE BAND...THE STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WARM LAYER OFFERED ON THE 00 UTC NAM APPEARS TO VERIFYING BEST. ANOTHER FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 AS OF 0650 UTC...A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS LOCATED FROM CROSBY AND ESTEVAN...SOUTHEAST TO NEAR HAZEN AND MAX. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIQUID WATER IS REACHING THE GROUND UNDER THE MAJORITY OF THE BAND...MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW/SLEET NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NEAR TERM POPS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE GRIDS UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS TREND. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ALREADY OUT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 CONTINUED TO TRIM POPS ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT AS BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO CANADIAN BORDER. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z THURSDAY AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND HIGHEST NORTH...MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OVER CENTRAL ND. UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 ISSUED QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND AND DELAY TIMING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...BASED ON RADAR/OBS TRENDS UPSTREAM AS WELL AS SHORT TERM MODEL DATA (HRRR/RUC/00Z NAM). UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. WILL NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS ND BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWEST. 18Z MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE 18Z NAM AND LATEST RUC ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PRECIP COMPARED TO GFS/12Z ECMWF. SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS OBSERVED UPSTREAM ACROSS MONTANA...BUT STILL NOT SEEING MUCH REACH THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER POPS OR REMOVE THEM ACROSS CENTRAL ND FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES. LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND INTO MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRACKING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW. STRONG WARM ADVECTION PRODUCING WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION AND THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE AREA. UTILIZED THE GFS FOR THE MAX TEMPERATURE ALOFT. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT KEEPING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS TEMPERATURES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE ECMWF WAS SIMILAR TO THIS ON THE 04 MARCH 12 UTC RUN...BUT IS NOW QUITE A BIT WARMER AND CLOSER TO THE NAM. THE MAIN REASON FOR GOING WITH THE GFS IS THAT EVEN THE WARM NAM DOES NOT HAVE A REAL DEEP LAYER OF +3C TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS IF THERE WERE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...THE THINKING NOW IS THAT IT WOULD BE BRIEF...AND THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE SNOW. NOW AS YOU GO FARTHER SOUTH...SAY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN INCREASES WITH A DEEPER WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE SOUTH. WE WILL ALSO HAVE THE UNCERTAINTY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF HERE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF SNOW ALSO INCREASES AS YOU GO NORTH. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...IN THE WESTERN THIRD...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO DROP OFF. CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THUS WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND EVENING OR MID SHIFT WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON IF A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NEEDED...AND WHERE IT WOULD GO. ON THURSDAY...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AS COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH WILL BE SLOW TO DROP COMPLETELY THROUGH THE STATE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 THE LONG TERM BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS NORTHEAST ON THE TAIL END OF A MID LEVEL S/WV. OTHERWISE...LINGERING LIGHT SNOW A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS PORTRAYING LOW STRATUS IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY...WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 20F DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY. MODELS STILL DEPICT LIGHT QPF ACROSS MONTANA AND AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PICKING UP ON WEAK EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ENERGY AND RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE SFC HIGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MATERIALIZES FOR THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO HIT 40 DEGREES IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION AND THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST. RIDGE FLATTENS MONDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH THIS FEATURE ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH THIS TRANSITION...ALONG WITH SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING HIGH IMPACT AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETTING UP...KEEPING THE BEST STORM TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 138 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KMOT BETWEEN 07-09 UTC TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KISN AND KMOT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR STRATUS OVERTAKES KDIK/KBIS/KJMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1256 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 AS OF 0650 UTC...A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS LOCATED FROM CROSBY AND ESTEVAN...SOUTHEAST TO NEAR HAZEN AND MAX. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIQUID WATER IS REACHING THE GROUND UNDER THE MAJORITY OF THE BAND...MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW/SLEET NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NEAR TERM POPS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE GRIDS UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS TREND. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ALREADY OUT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 CONTINUED TO TRIM POPS ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT AS BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO CANADIAN BORDER. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z THURSDAY AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND HIGHEST NORTH...MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OVER CENTRAL ND. UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 ISSUED QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND AND DELAY TIMING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...BASED ON RADAR/OBS TRENDS UPSTREAM AS WELL AS SHORT TERM MODEL DATA (HRRR/RUC/00Z NAM). UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. WILL NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS ND BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWEST. 18Z MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE 18Z NAM AND LATEST RUC ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PRECIP COMPARED TO GFS/12Z ECMWF. SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS OBSERVED UPSTREAM ACROSS MONTANA...BUT STILL NOT SEEING MUCH REACH THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER POPS OR REMOVE THEM ACROSS CENTRAL ND FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES. LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND INTO MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRACKING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW. STRONG WARM ADVECTION PRODUCING WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION AND THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE AREA. UTILIZED THE GFS FOR THE MAX TEMPERATURE ALOFT. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT KEEPING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS TEMPERATURES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE ECMWF WAS SIMILAR TO THIS ON THE 04 MARCH 12 UTC RUN...BUT IS NOW QUITE A BIT WARMER AND CLOSER TO THE NAM. THE MAIN REASON FOR GOING WITH THE GFS IS THAT EVEN THE WARM NAM DOES NOT HAVE A REAL DEEP LAYER OF +3C TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS IF THERE WERE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...THE THINKING NOW IS THAT IT WOULD BE BRIEF...AND THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE SNOW. NOW AS YOU GO FARTHER SOUTH...SAY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN INCREASES WITH A DEEPER WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE SOUTH. WE WILL ALSO HAVE THE UNCERTAINTY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF HERE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF SNOW ALSO INCREASES AS YOU GO NORTH. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...IN THE WESTERN THIRD...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO DROP OFF. CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THUS WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND EVENING OR MID SHIFT WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON IF A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NEEDED...AND WHERE IT WOULD GO. ON THURSDAY...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AS COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH WILL BE SLOW TO DROP COMPLETELY THROUGH THE STATE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 THE LONG TERM BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS NORTHEAST ON THE TAIL END OF A MID LEVEL S/WV. OTHERWISE...LINGERING LIGHT SNOW A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS PORTRAYING LOW STRATUS IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY...WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 20F DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY. MODELS STILL DEPICT LIGHT QPF ACROSS MONTANA AND AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PICKING UP ON WEAK EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ENERGY AND RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE SFC HIGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MATERIALIZES FOR THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO HIT 40 DEGREES IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION AND THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST. RIDGE FLATTENS MONDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH THIS FEATURE ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH THIS TRANSITION...ALONG WITH SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING HIGH IMPACT AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETTING UP...KEEPING THE BEST STORM TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KMOT BETWEEN 07-09 UTC TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KISN AND KMOT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR STRATUS OVERTAKES KDIK/KBIS/KJMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1019 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 CONTINUED TO TRIM POPS ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT AS BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO CANADIAN BORDER. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z THURSDAY AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND HIGHEST NORTH...MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OVER CENTRAL ND. UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 ISSUED QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND AND DELAY TIMING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...BASED ON RADAR/OBS TRENDS UPSTREAM AS WELL AS SHORT TERM MODEL DATA (HRRR/RUC/00Z NAM). UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. WILL NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE PRECIP CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS ND BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWEST. 18Z MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE 18Z NAM AND LATEST RUC ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PRECIP COMPARED TO GFS/12Z ECMWF. SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS OBSERVED UPSTREAM ACROSS MONTANA...BUT STILL NOT SEEING MUCH REACH THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER POPS OR REMOVE THEM ACROSS CENTRAL ND FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES. LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND INTO MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRACKING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW. STRONG WARM ADVECTION PRODUCING WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION AND THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE AREA. UTILIZED THE GFS FOR THE MAX TEMPERATURE ALOFT. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT KEEPING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS TEMPERATURES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE ECMWF WAS SIMILAR TO THIS ON THE 04 MARCH 12 UTC RUN...BUT IS NOW QUITE A BIT WARMER AND CLOSER TO THE NAM. THE MAIN REASON FOR GOING WITH THE GFS IS THAT EVEN THE WARM NAM DOES NOT HAVE A REAL DEEP LAYER OF +3C TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS IF THERE WERE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...THE THINKING NOW IS THAT IT WOULD BE BRIEF...AND THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE SNOW. NOW AS YOU GO FARTHER SOUTH...SAY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN INCREASES WITH A DEEPER WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY AS YOU MOVE SOUTH. WE WILL ALSO HAVE THE UNCERTAINTY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF HERE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF SNOW ALSO INCREASES AS YOU GO NORTH. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...IN THE WESTERN THIRD...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO DROP OFF. CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THUS WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND EVENING OR MID SHIFT WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON IF A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NEEDED...AND WHERE IT WOULD GO. ON THURSDAY...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AS COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH WILL BE SLOW TO DROP COMPLETELY THROUGH THE STATE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 THE LONG TERM BEGINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS NORTHEAST ON THE TAIL END OF A MID LEVEL S/WV. OTHERWISE...LINGERING LIGHT SNOW A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS PORTRAYING LOW STRATUS IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY...WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 20F DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY. MODELS STILL DEPICT LIGHT QPF ACROSS MONTANA AND AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PICKING UP ON WEAK EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ENERGY AND RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE SFC HIGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MATERIALIZES FOR THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO HIT 40 DEGREES IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION AND THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST. RIDGE FLATTENS MONDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH THIS FEATURE ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH THIS TRANSITION...ALONG WITH SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING HIGH IMPACT AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A SPLIT FLOW REGIME SETTING UP...KEEPING THE BEST STORM TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT ALL SITES AS OF 01Z UTC. NEXT SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM MONTANA AND EXPECT TO SEE LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH INCLUDING KISN AND KMOT BY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE MAY BE MORE LIMITED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JNS SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
326 AM PST THU MAR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK STORM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. .SHORT TERM... BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV, WITH MEASURABLE RAIN SPILLING EFFICIENTLY INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MID MORNING. LIGHTNING OVER CENTRAL CA HAS DECREASED SINCE 2 AM. THIS BAND OF RAIN HAS MOMENTARILY SUPPRESSED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE RENO-CARSON VICINITY, ALTHOUGH A RETURN TO GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH, SURPRISE VALLEY HAS ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT WINDS, WITH A PEAK GUST OF 58 MPH JUST REPORTED AT AN AUTOMATED WIND SENSOR IN FORT BIDWELL. WILL LEAVE ALL WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 500 MB TROUGH PASSAGE AND A UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV SHOULD SUPPORT WIND GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH AT TIMES. THIS TROUGH AND JET STREAK PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE INCREASING INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL (WHICH FAR OUTPERFORMED ALL OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THE SPREAD OF OVERNIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NV) HAVE GENERATED SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS RENO AND LAKE TAHOE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS DO NOT GENERATE PRECIP THIS FAR SOUTH, THE RECENT SUCCESS OF THE HRRR WILL BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT AND WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE RENO-CARSON VICINITY AND MUCH OF THE WEST CENTRAL NV BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY WAVE IS ALSO PROJECTED BY THE GFS TO SWEEP ACROSS NORTHWEST NV. THIS FEATURE IS OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION DURING THE SUMMER SEASON, BUT SINCE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ARE ALSO INDICATED, WE WILL ADD A POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-LOVELOCK LINE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW PELLETS OR GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY THIS EVENING, THE WINDS AND CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AS RIDGE REBUILDS NEAR THE WEST COAST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT EAST FLOW ON FRIDAY LIMITING TEMPERATURE RISES TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY, LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY. MJD && .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY TIME FRAME. IT IS AFTER MONDAY NIGHT THAT THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE...AND TODAY IS NO DIFFERENT. WITH SOME CONSISTENCY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND QPF FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR EARLY MONDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME THERE WERE NO REAL CHANGES AS NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO WARRANT BIG CHANGES. TROUGH ALONG THE COAST SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH PCPN SPREADING INTO NE CA AND NW NV MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH WITH THIS INITIAL PUSH OF MSTR...AND QPF LOOKS A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAD INDICATED. ADJUSTED POPS UP A LITTLE OVER THE FAR NW CWA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY THE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING BUT THERE IS STILL ENOUGH FORCING TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO POPS WERE RAISED A LITTLE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE TROUGH WILL HAVE LARGELY MOVED THROUGH. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND THUS LOWER SNOW LEVELS INTO THE PICTURE. DID NOT GO AS WET OR COOL AS ECMWF WOULD INDICATE...STAYED SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN IT AND THE GFS. HELD ON TO AN AREA OF LOWER POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING THE TROUGH PASSAGE SLOWING JUST A LITTLE BY THEN. BUT BY THEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE BEGINNING TO DIVERGE. ON TUESDAY THE ECMWF IS BUILDING A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE BOTH SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CARVING A BIT FARTHER WEST...BUT STILL MAINLY EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS CARRIES THROUGH TO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WHERE GFS AND GEM WOULD BE COLDER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL DRY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF...BUT A FEW CARVE THIS TROUGH OUT. WILL SHOW A WARM UP BEGINNING BY WEDNESDAY AFTER COOLER TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL ALSO KEEP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY. 20 && .AVIATION... CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND SHOULD EXIT MOST OF THE AREA BY 18 UTC. AFTER THAT THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AS A HEALTHY GRADIENT DEVELOPS. COULD SEE SFC WIND GUSTS FROM 35-40 KTS MANY LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER GUSTS JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA IN WIND PRONE AREAS. SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODEL SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE. WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR CIGS/VSBYS TO DROP TO AS LOW AS 3000/3 IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. STRONGER LOW LEVEL GRADIENT DRIVEN WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO RESULT IN TURBULENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SIERRA AND OTHER MOUNTAIN RANGES. RIDGE GUSTS COULD TOP 70 KTS AT TIMES TODAY. FOR THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS...MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING FROM KTVL SOUTH TO KMMH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. BRIEF CLEARING LATE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY KTRK WHERE IFR IS POSSIBLE IN FOG LATE TONIGHT. 20 && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE IN NVZ004. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ003-005. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002. CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ070. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
933 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014 ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... .UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FORMIDABLE LINE OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. LOTS OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE GULF. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS TAKE THIS LINE OF STORMS INTO THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON (HRRR SHOWING 1-2 PM), THEN EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING (HRRR SHOWING 4-7 PM). SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE GULF CONVECTION OVERSPREADING CENTRAL FL AND NOW ENTERING INTO SW FLORIDA TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...AND HRRR DEVELOPS CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE ACROSS SE FL WITH MOVEMENT NORTH. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NOW IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE...AND WILL BE WATCHING THOSE MORE DISCREET CELLS CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE ROTATION ONCE THEY DEVELOP. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS EAST COAST THROUGH 1 PM WITH POTENTIAL FOR THOSE DISCREET CELLS DEVELOPING, THEN INCREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. WIND THREAT IS HIGHER THAN A TORNADO THREAT GIVEN VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH TIME TODAY, BUT NEED TO WATCH ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC COAST FOR A POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LESSER IMPACTS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE (WITH CELLS AHEAD OF MAIN LINE) ALONG WITH ISOLATED STREET FLOODING. A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AHEAD. /GREGORIA && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014/ AVIATION... A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE VFR IS CURRENTLY FORECAST, CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR UNDER ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT. AVIATION...BNB/SI PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014/ DISCUSSION... THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE LIGHTNING COUNT WITHIN THESE STORMS HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY INTERACT WITH A LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT H5 TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE EXTREME NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IMPULSE COMBINED WITH A LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT TO KEEP THESE STORMS GOING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THEY SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING UNDER A MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BUT WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. BY MIDDAY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS IT DOES...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST FURTHER INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROVIDING ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THE SEVERITY REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR THAT WILL FACILITATE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL BRING THE LOW INTO THE PENINSULA SOMEWHERE AROUND THE BIG BEND AREA SOUTH TO TAMPA AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE EARLY CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS COULD ALSO ALLOW MODEST SURFACE HEATING TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUD COVER...THUS INCREASING INSTABILITY WHILE REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD CIRRUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH POSSIBLY A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT HEATING AND BETTER THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS THAN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4C TO -5C. H5 TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROGGED AROUND -10C TO -12C WHICH WITH THE GIVEN INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. MODEL SOUNDING DEPICTIONS OF 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES HAVE INCREASED AND NOW RANGE FROM AROUND 100 TO 150 M2/S2 WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO FACILITATE AN INCREASE IN 0-1 KM SHEAR. ALL IN ALL...THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. BY EARLY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TREKKING NORTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEEPEN FURTHER AS THE PARENT H5 TROUGH BECOMES MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT. BY THIS TIME...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN DRAGGING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY IT. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MORE LINEAR IN NATURE AND COULD POSE AN ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITHIN STRONGER LINE SEGMENTS. THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THEY BECOME MORE DISCONNECTED FROM BETTER DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND WITH HEATING LOSS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA FOR GOOD BY FRIDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PLEASANT AND MILD WEEKEND FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MARINE... DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A NW-N WIND WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND VEER TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS ALSO SUBSIDING LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 81 69 81 56 / 70 50 10 0 FORT LAUDERDALE 82 71 81 58 / 70 50 20 0 MIAMI 83 71 81 59 / 70 60 20 0 NAPLES 80 65 76 54 / 70 40 10 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
545 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. A COLD AND SOAKING RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE GULF LOW TODAY. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE WEDGE- RIDGE PATTERN THAT IS IN PLACE. THE 05Z HRRR INDICATED SPOTTY RAIN IN THE SOUTH PART 700 AM TO 1100 AM WITH THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD REACHING THE CSRA AROUND 1100 AM...THE COLUMBIA AREA ABOUT 100 PM...AND THE LANCASTER AREA AROUND 300 PM. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM TODAY BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE PATTERN. WET- BULB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH PART EARLY THIS MORNING SO EVEN WITH AN EARLIER PRECIPITATION START TIME IT SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND FREEZING IN THE NORTH PART BUT WITH THE LATER START TIME AND DIURNAL RECOVERY IT SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID THERE AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE WEDGE RIDGE AND APPROACHING LOW. THE GFS LAMP SUPPORTS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EAST SECTION. WE HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE DURING THE EVENING AND HINT AT SOME MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTTING OCCURRING LATE. FORECASTED THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BELOW-FREEZING LAYER AROUND 2000 FEET IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART. THE WARM-NOSE TEMPERATURE ABOVE THIS LAYER APPEARS QUITE WARM. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF MOS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT THE FARTHER NORTH LOCATION OF CHARLOTTE 33 TO 35. WE RAN THE GFS TOP- DOWN METHOD USING BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AND THE RESULT WAS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ESPECIALLY TIGHT TONIGHT BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND LINGERING WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EAST SECTION. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL LINGER FRIDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE H5 CUT-OFF LOW OVERHEAD DURING THAT TIME. EXPECT CLOUDINESS AND CONTINUED LIKELY RAIN FRIDAY BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE MAIN LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO HIGH BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND THE COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW FRIDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND SREF GUIDANCE WERE IN AGREEMENT FORECASTING TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. DRYING SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY RIDGING SATURDAY. UNDER SUNNY SKIES IT SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY OCCUR TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT THE GREATER CHANCE HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE AROUND 30 PERCENT. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS DISPLAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MOSTLY VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BY 14Z AT MOST TAF SITES AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 14Z WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR BY 18Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH AROUND 12Z-13Z AND EVEN STRONGER BY 18Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041. GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
538 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. A COLD AND SOAKING RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE GULF LOW TODAY. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE WEDGE- RIDGE PATTERN THAT IS IN PLACE. THE 05Z HRRR INDICATED SPOTTY RAIN IN THE SOUTH PART 700 AM TO 1100 AM WITH THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD REACHING THE CSRA AROUND 1100 AM...THE COLUMBIA AREA ABOUT 100 PM...AND THE LANCASTER AREA AROUND 300 PM. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM TODAY BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE PATTERN. WET- BULB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH PART EARLY THIS MORNING SO EVEN WITH AN EARLIER PRECIPITATION START TIME IT SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID. WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND FREEZING IN THE NORTH PART BUT WITH THE LATER START TIME AND DIURNAL RECOVERY IT SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID THERE AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE WEDGE RIDGE AND APPROACHING LOW. THE GFS LAMP SUPPORTS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EAST SECTION. WE HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE DURING THE EVENING AND HINT AT SOME MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTTING OCCURRING LATE. FORECASTED THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BELOW-FREEZING LAYER AROUND 2000 FEET IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART. THE WARM-NOSE TEMPERATURE ABOVE THIS LAYER APPEARS QUITE WARM. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF MOS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT THE FARTHER NORTH LOCATION OF CHARLOTTE 33 TO 35. WE RAN THE GFS TOP- DOWN METHOD USING BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AND THE RESULT WAS ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ESPECIALLY TIGHT TONIGHT BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND LINGERING WEDGE RIDGE. THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUPPORTS GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EAST SECTION. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WILL LINGER FRIDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE H5 CUT-OFF LOW OVERHEAD DURING THAT TIME. EXPECT CLOUDINESS AND CONTINUED LIKELY RAIN FRIDAY BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE MAIN LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO HIGH BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND THE COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW FRIDAY. THE NAM...GFS...AND SREF GUIDANCE WERE IN AGREEMENT FORECASTING TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. DRYING SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY RIDGING SATURDAY. UNDER SUNNY SKIES IT SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER. THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY OCCUR TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT THE GREATER CHANCE HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE AROUND 30 PERCENT. THE GFS...ECWMF...AND EKD MOS DISPLAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MOSTLY VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AFTER 09Z PROVIDING MVFR CEILINGS ALL TERMINALS AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 14Z WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 16Z AGS/DNL/OGB. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH AROUND 12Z AND EVEN STRONGER BY 18Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041. GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
540 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2014 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 Latest low cloud enhanced satellite loop shows stratus slowly building northwest across north central Kansas along and just west of the ridge axis. Further east low clouds were breaking up and also reforming in spots. Areas where skies cleared temperatures dropped into the teens while near steady temperatures in the mid and upper 20s continued under the cloud cover. RAP soundings suggest that clouds will linger through mid afternoon out west while the 06Z NAM suggest around mid day. Expect clouds to slowly dissipate after 17Z with mostly sunny skies by 21Z. Increasing southerly winds and 850 mb temps warming into the 6 to 10C will see highs in the mid 40s far northeast to the lower 50s in north central Kansas. Also patchy fog will continue through mid morning and may become dense in a few areas. Warm advection continues through the night across the CWA with winds south to southwest. Shortwave trough moving across southern Canada and the Northern Plains will push a frontal boundary southeast. The front should extend from northeast Nebraska to a low over the Oklahoma Panhandle by 12Z Friday. Lows tonight will fall back into the lower 30s with partly cloudy skies in the north and mostly clear skies in the south half of the CWA. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 By Friday morning, a mid-level trough will be in place over the Northern Plains stretching toward the central Rockies. Models show this trough deepening a bit as it advances eastward toward the Central Plains Friday into Saturday. This deepening trough will help to push a cold front southward into the area Friday afternoon. Models seem to be trending a bit faster with bringing this cold front into far north central Kansas by around 18z Friday and having it progress southeast of the area by early to mid evening. With this timing of the frontal passage, expect southerly winds to prevail through much of the day across east central Kansas with a shift to the north behind the front across northern Kansas during the afternoon hours. As a result, could see a spread in high temperatures for Friday, ranging from the lower 50s near the Kansas/Nebraska border to the upper 50s and possibly even near 60 degrees over east central Kansas. Models show modest low to mid-level frontogenesis developing behind the front, so anticipate the development of some post-frontal precipitation. This light precipitation may start as early as late afternoon across far north central Kansas, but the better lift looks to move through during the evening and overnight hours. There are still model discrepancies with regards to how much QPF we can expect with this system. The ECMWF continues to bring the most QPF to the area while the GFS and NAM keep lower QPF amounts. There is also still some uncertainty with just how quickly this precipitation will exit southeast of the area, with the NAM being the fastest in having precipitation exit the area by 12z Saturday while the GFS/ECMWF/GEM keep some light precipitation lingering across east central Kansas through much of the day on Saturday. With this uncertainty in the timing and amount of precipitation over the area, have kept PoPs less than 50 percent Friday night into Saturday. As for precipitation type, with the mild temperatures during the day on Friday, precipitation will likely start off as rain with this system. Model soundings are in fairly good agreement in showing the temperature profiles in the low to mid-levels of the atmosphere cooling off as surface temperatures drop during the evening hours, so do not see a warm nose present in these soundings as temperatures drop below freezing. As a result, as temperatures cool into the mid/upper 20s by Saturday morning, expect any light precipitation to transition from rain over to snow. If a wintry mix were to occur, it should be very short-lived. With the frontogenetical forcing shifting east of the area by Saturday morning, any lingering precipitation during the day on Saturday looks to be supported by some isentropic lift within the 295k-310k layer. High temperatures for Saturday look to reach into the mid/upper 30s to low 40s, so could see precipitation transitioning from snow back over to rain during the late morning and afternoon hours with any lingering light precipitation. Precipitation amounts with this system look to be light, with snow accumulations likely around one inch or less. This mid-level trough will progress east of the area on Sunday with surface high pressure moving in behind this system Saturday night and progressing into the southeastern U.S. by Sunday. As a result, expect southwesterly surface flow on Sunday which will aid in decent waa and temperatures moderating back into the mid/upper 50s and possibly even low 60s across north central Kansas as models show a thermal ridge building in across western Kansas. Monday continues to look to be the warmest day in the forecast as the steady southwesterly flow further supports waa through the day. Have trended a few degrees warmer with highs in the mid/upper 60s and possibly even into the lower 70s over north central Kansas as that well-pronounced thermal ridge remains in place just west of the area. Models show another cold front tracking over the area sometime Monday night into Tuesday with some modest post-frontal lift present. GFS/ECMWF both pick up on the potential for some precipitation, especially across northern and far northeast Kansas Tuesday into Wednesday, however there is still a great deal of uncertainty with the timing and tracking of this system so only have slight to low-end chance PoPs in for that period. Expect a bit of a downward trend with temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with a northerly surface flow in place, resulting in highs dropping back into the 40s by Wednesday. While most of this precipitation looks to stay in the form of rain, low temperatures Tuesday night may drop into the low/mid 30s so cannot rule out a mix of rain/snow overnight into Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 540 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 Stratus is the main concern for the short term with the terminals this morning. LIFR stratus cigs lay just west of TOP and FOE, but are occurring at MHK. Latest trends on satellite show stratus moving off slowly west or holding west of TOP and FOE. IFR/MVFR vsbys will continue through 15Z with some LIFR vsbys possible. Forecast soundings from the RAP suggest that stratus will begin to breakup in the 15Z-18Z time frame, with VFR expected for the rest of the period. Calm winds will become southeast near 8 kts, then south after 14Z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM...Hennecke AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
619 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW... && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP COVERAGE AND TYPE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WE FOLLOWED A BLEND...BUT LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF THAN THE GFS. RADAR SHOWED ECHOES OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT KINL/KCDD AT TIMES. MORE RETURNS WERE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA REVEAL SOME FREEZING RAIN/MIXED PRECIP. WE CONFINED MENTION OF PRECIP TO OUR NORTHERN MINNESOTA ZONES FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RES MODELS. A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE SNOW/FREEZING PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY. STRATUS CLOUDS WERE SURGING NORTH THIS MORNING AND THE RAP SHOWS THEY SHOULD COVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY AND WE HAVE HIGHS FROM THE MID TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH AS WELL. WE HAVE A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE HAVING HIGHEST POPS OVER THE FAR NORTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...AND SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL FAR SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE COOLER ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT MORE OF A MIX. AT THIS TIME...WE CONTINUED A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE BORDERLAND SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW. COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CONSIDER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DIP TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID TWENTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT/LOW MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID TWENTIES TOWARD INTERNATIONAL FALLS...AND THE MID THIRTIES OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 A VERY ACTIVE NRN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE FORECAST CHALLENGING FOR SEVERAL REASONS. CONFIDENCE WILL BE HIGHEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS INITIAL MID LVL TROF MOVES EAST. A RELATIVELY QUIET AND COLD SATURDAY IS EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MDLS AGREE THAT AT MID LVLS A SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL RESIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES SRN ALBERTA WITH A BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT FROM ALBERTA INTO THE LOWER GT LAKES. ITS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE MDLS SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL SFC LOWS WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE SE. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIBBONS MAKES THE FCST TEMPS/PTYPES/POPS LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR IS PULLED INTO THE CWA UNDER THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN THAT ZL AND PERHAPS EVEN RAIN MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER SRN CWA WHERE BDRY LYR WARMING HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. THIS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SUNDAY BUT WILL LEAVE SNOW IN FCST FOR NOW. EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY MONDAY AS MAX TEMPS IN SRN CWA MAY BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER IF LATEST EC/GEM ARE CORRECT. WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIP FOCUSED OVER THE NRN TIER OF MN ZONES CLOSER TO POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW. MDLS AGREE THAT TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO COLDER AIR WITH MAX TEMPS LOWERING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM MONDAYS VALUES. GFS/EC AGREE THAT A MID LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS MIDWEEK. HOWEVER THE RESULTING DOWNSTREAM TROFS ARE NOT IN SYNC WHICH PROMOTES AN INCREASING DIFFERENCE IN PLACEMENT OF LOW LVL THERMAL TROUGH. GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN EC AT THIS POINT..ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD TO CLIMO OR BELOW CLIMO AFTER THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF EARLY WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 1218 AM CST THUR MAR 6 2014 A LARGE AREA OF MVFR STRATUS IS ADVECTING NORTH INTO CWA. ISOLATED FLURRIES MAY OCCUR OVER THE SRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS MAJORITY OF PRECIP IS CONFINED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. FRONTAL BDRY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHC OF FZDZ/SN. SHOULD HAVE IFR AT MOST SITES AS CEILINGS LOWER NEAR FRNTL BDRY ..EXCEPT KHYR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 29 23 31 4 / 20 50 20 10 INL 30 19 25 -5 / 60 80 20 10 BRD 33 25 29 -1 / 10 20 10 0 HYR 34 23 35 6 / 10 40 30 10 ASX 33 23 35 9 / 10 50 30 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MELDE LONG TERM...CANNON AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
606 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE BLOWING SNOW TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE FRESH SNOW COVER EXISTS...CLOUD COVER TODAY /AND ITS IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS/...AND MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WERE CHANGED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY JUST TIMING DIFFERENCES...MAGNITUDES LOOK CONSISTENT. THE QUESTION IS HOW SEVERE THE BLOWING SNOW WILL BE. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY RIGHT NOW...AS CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERITY OF BLOWING SNOW IS HAMPERED BY THE FACT THAT THIS WILL BE A SOUTH WARM ADVECTION WIND. IN THE PAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW. SO...ALONG WITH COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO COVER THE BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST...AND HWO. CLEARING TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TODAY...BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THE LOW STRATUS HANG AROUND EASTERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. RAP CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT AT THE 0.5KM LEVEL HAS HANDLED THE CLOUD COVER WELL OVERNIGHT...AND LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS MEANS LOW STRATUS WILL TEND TO DECELERATE OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY ACROSS THE METRO AND AREAS EAST. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND ALSO DUE TO THE SSE WIND EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. NEWEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS OUR FA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A FIRST LOOK AT A FEW HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS LACKED NEGATIVE OMEGA WITH MOISTURE...AND DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SHOWED THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A BETTER CONNECTION IS MADE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. GENERALLY EXPECT VERY LIGHT FZDZ EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR US TO GET OUR MELT ON IN THE EXTENDED... ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AS WE STRUGGLE TO EVER PERFECTLY LINE UP FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE WITH ONLY SHOTS AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP LOOKING TO COME FRIDAY AND AGAIN MON NIGHT/TUES. THE FIRST PROBLEM AT HAND IS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE STARTING OUT FRIDAY MORNING DRAPED SW TO NE ACROSS MN. AGAIN THE PRECIP END OF THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE OF THE SHAKESPEAREAN NATURE...MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE PLENTY MOIST THANKS TO THE SNOW PACK MOISTURE FEED...BUT THE PROBLEM RESIDES BETWEEN 2K AND 10KT FEET...WHICH TIME-HEIGHT RH CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS/NAM SHOW REMAINING FAIRLY DRY. IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ISSUE...WE ARE ALSO SEEING A SPLIT IN THE FORCING...WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINING UP IN SRN CANADA...WHILE A WEAKER WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO MO/IA. TO PILE ON THE NEGATIVES FOR GETTING MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...SAW NO REASON OVERNIGHT TO RAISE POPS ANY HIGHER THAN THE 20S/LOW 30S THAT WERE INHERITED. FOR P-TYPE...ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL STILL LOOKS TO COME IN MAINLY THE LIQUID VARIETY...AS THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WOULD MAKE SLEET/SNOW LOOK TO ARRIVE WITH DRIER AIR AND THEREFORE COINCIDE WITH THE ENDING OF PRECIP AS WELL. WHAT THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WITH THIS FRONT ARE THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND STRONG CAA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS EVERYWHERE ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE ACHIEVED EARLY ON...WITH TEMPS SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CAA WILL BE MOVING OVER MN BY SAT MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN FOR THE NW CWA. AFTER A COOL SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE STILL HIGH IN WAA KICKING IN IN A BIG WAY SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE GET ON TO THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...WITH A VERY MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...LOOKS LIKE WE COULD GET A FAIRLY CLEAN BURST OF WARM AIR AS WELL...AS THIS WARMER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING ON CHINOOK WINDS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS AND STRATUS/FOG IN CHECK. CONTINUED TO NUDGE HIGHS UP ON BOTH DAYS...WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYONE FORECAST TO GET INTO THE 40S BOTH DAYS. IN FACT...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGHS AROUND 50 FOR MONDAY...SO AGAIN IF ANYTHING...WE ARE PROBABLY NOT WARM ENOUGH. WE ALSO NOW HAVE IT DRY FOR MONDAY...AS ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STILL RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS AHEAD OF THE GFS FOR A CLIPPER TYPE WAVE SUN NIGHT/MON...BOTH AGREE ON KEEPING ANY OF ITS PRECIP WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. TUESDAY...GFS/ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE GEM KICK OFF SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN OR IA AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET THAT IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS FOR NOW...THOUGH NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN IF WE WILL SEE ANYTHING AT THIS POINT. FOR P-TYPE...KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW WITH JUST A RAIN...SNOW...OR RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTION BASED ON FORECAST SFC TEMPS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 548 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 OVERALL...WENT WITH A PESSIMISTIC FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN TAF SITES...AND A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST. SLOW CLEARING OF THE MVFR CEILINGS IS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. RWF WILL BE IN THE BEST SHAPE WITH CEILINGS...AS THEY SIT ON THE EDGE OF THE MVFR DECK EARLY THIS MORNING. AXN HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO LOSE THE CEILINGS THIS MORNING...BUT DO EXPECT THIS TO HAPPEN BY MID MORNING. THE 0.5KM COND PRES DEFICIT OFF THE RAP HAS HANDLED STRATUS WELL OVERNIGHT...SO PREFERRED ITS THINKING AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM AFD. IT INDICATES ADVECTION OF STRATUS NORTHWARD FROM IOWA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. BEYOND MID DAY...THE CEILING FORECAST IS A LOW CONFIDENT ONE DUE TO VERY STRONG 850H WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AIR ABOVE THESE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS DRY AIR AND STRONG WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUD COVER...AS CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...WHICH WILL TURN NORTHWEST NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR THIS PERIOD...AS IT MAY IN FACT STAY DRY AT ALL SITES. CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP OCCURRING FRIDAY MORNING WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITE. KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MVFR DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONCERN BEING THAT THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STILL...ENOUGH CONSENSUS WAS PRESENT TO INCLUDE A BKN020 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THERE IS A CHANCE THIS DECK COULD SCATTER OUT AT MSP. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN LOWER CEILINGS MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...MVFR/IFR. WINDS TURNING NW 10-15 KT. SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS...BECOMING W 5 KT. SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KT. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPD LONG TERM...MPG AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
754 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 751 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY A FEW COUNTIES. JYR AND HYS ARE M1/4SM...WITH RSL 1/2SM. UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 BELOIT AND HEBRON ARE DOWN TO 1/4SM IN DENSE FOG. AN ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED SHORTLY. UNSURE HOW FAR NW TO EXTEND IT. SO MONITOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS AS WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014 ...BREEZY AND VERY WARM TODAY AND WHILE WE WILL COOL DOWN FRI-SAT WE ARE STILL IN FOR MORE SPECTACULAR SPRING WARMTH SUN-MON... ALOFT: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE N AMERICA WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL ADVANCE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS TROF WILL BEGIN TO DIG SE TONIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES DEEPER INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...A MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES IS OVER THE NE STATES AND QUEBEC...AND ENCOMPASSED THE ENTIRE ERN USA. THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR. A FRESH POLAR FRONT WAS ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER. A WEAK LOW WILL HEAD E TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK FRI. IN ITS WAKE...THE FRONT WILL DROP S THRU THE PLAINS. IT WILL MOVE INTO S-CNTRL NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT...BISECTING THE FCST AREA FROM ROUGHLY BEAVER CITY- FULLERTON NEB AT DAWN FRI. STRATUS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT E-SE-S OF THE FCST AREA...AND GRADUALLY CREEPING N. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON IT AND WE USED IT TO GUIDE THE FCST. THRU SUNRISE: PATCHY CIRROSTRATUS WILL MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL SUNRISE AWAY FROM LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM OVER N-CNTRL KS. VISIBILITIES ARE 4-5 MI AT 0830Z. IT ALL DEPENDS ON WINDS WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE S AND IF STRATUS MOVES IN. TODAY: OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY UNDER PATCHES OF 25K FT CIRROSTRATUS. BREEZY S WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH N OF NEB HWY 6. WINDS WERE NUDGED UPWARD 5 MPH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. A LEE- SIDE TROF WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN...STRENGTHENING THE PRES GRADIENT. WE MAY HAVE A STRATUS PROBLEM S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES THRU MIDDAY. MIXING AND THE THIN NATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ITS GRADUAL EROSION. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON ITS ULTIMATE EXTENT AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS. HIGH TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT. WAS PLANNING ON RAISING TEMPS ANOTHER 2-3F E OF HWY 281...BUT REFRAINED BECAUSE STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. TONIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FRZG. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY SUNSET... BUT SHOULD STILL BE GUSTY THRU THE EVENING HOURS. DO WE HAVE A FOG PROBLEM TOWARD DAWN FRI? NOT SURE BUT THIS NEEDS FURTHER EVALUATION BY THE DAY SHIFT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FRONTAL TROF MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-4 DEGS N OF NEB HWY 6. THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS /CONSRAW/ RULES IN THESE SITUATIONS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 459 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM FRIDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT BISECTING OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING ON FRIDAY...IT WILL NOT REALLY GET GOING STRONGER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THIS PUTS US IN A QUANDARY FOR DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH PAINTING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION OVER US FOR THE ENTIRE SYSTEM FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE NAM IS MORE HOPEFUL FOR PRECIPITATION . ALSO THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK SHOT AT SOME SNOW...BUT JUDGING BY THE MODEST STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THIS BEING DURING THE DAY AND BATTLING WARMED SURFACES...I AM LEANING MORE TOWARD RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND TRANSITIONING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. EVEN IF WE DO GET SOME SNOW...MUCH OF THIS WILL MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY WIND UP BEING A TAD ON THE EARLY SIDE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST...BUT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP ENOUGH AND IN TIME TO GIVE US MUCH SNOW AT ALL. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND HENCE...HOW MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...IS STILL UP FOR GRABS TO SOME EXTENT. I RAISED WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY ABOUT 5 TO 7 KTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WIND GUST TOOL...FOLLOWING CLOSER TO CONSRAW WIND GUSTS. AFTER A COOL DAY FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THE COOLER AIR...A WARM-UP WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE LOCAL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BY MONDAY...ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S...IF NOT 70S...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE APPROACHES AND DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS HARDLY WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE ECMWF PAINTS A STOUT QPF FIELD OVER OUR AREA...AND THE GFS SHUNTS MOST PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND TO SOME EXTENT...TO THE NORTHEAST...AS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SPLIT WITH THIS NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTION. SO LEAVING CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE...CONSIDERING THE LACK OF AGREEMENT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 THRU 15Z: AT 11Z THE VSBY DROPPED TO 6SM AND EXPECT IT TO DEGRADE TO MVFR. HSI/AUH/JYR ARE ALREADY THERE. SATELLITE CONTS TO SHOW LIFR STRATUS PROGRESSING N. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON IF THE STRATUS MAKES IT TO GRI. IT IS POSSIBLE. AFTER 15Z: IT DEPENDS ON THE STRATUS. ANY RESTRICTIVE CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DECAY 15Z-17Z. THEN VFR WITH BREEZY S WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. CONFIDENCE: HIGH AFTER 17Z. TONIGHT: VFR THRU 10Z WITH LLWS DEVELOPING AS DAYTIME GUSTINESS SUBSIDES. THERE COULD STILL BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST BEFORE 06Z. MVFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP IN LIGHT FOG LATE. COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND WINDSHIFT EXPECTED AROUND 11Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ064-076- 077-086-087. KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007- 017>019. && $$ UPDATE...ADO SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB LONG TERM...HEINLEIN AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
552 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 BELOIT AND HEBRON ARE DOWN TO 1/4SM IN DENSE FOG. AN ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED SHORTLY. UNSURE HOW FAR NW TO EXTEND IT. SO MONITOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS AS WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014 ...BREEZY AND VERY WARM TODAY AND WHILE WE WILL COOL DOWN FRI-SAT WE ARE STILL IN FOR MORE SPECTACULAR SPRING WARMTH SUN-MON... ALOFT: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE N AMERICA WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL ADVANCE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS TROF WILL BEGIN TO DIG SE TONIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES DEEPER INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...A MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES IS OVER THE NE STATES AND QUEBEC...AND ENCOMPASSED THE ENTIRE ERN USA. THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR. A FRESH POLAR FRONT WAS ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER. A WEAK LOW WILL HEAD E TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK FRI. IN ITS WAKE...THE FRONT WILL DROP S THRU THE PLAINS. IT WILL MOVE INTO S-CNTRL NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT...BISECTING THE FCST AREA FROM ROUGHLY BEAVER CITY- FULLERTON NEB AT DAWN FRI. STRATUS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT E-SE-S OF THE FCST AREA...AND GRADUALLY CREEPING N. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON IT AND WE USED IT TO GUIDE THE FCST. THRU SUNRISE: PATCHY CIRROSTRATUS WILL MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL SUNRISE AWAY FROM LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM OVER N-CNTRL KS. VISIBILITIES ARE 4-5 MI AT 0830Z. IT ALL DEPENDS ON WINDS WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE S AND IF STRATUS MOVES IN. TODAY: OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY UNDER PATCHES OF 25K FT CIRROSTRATUS. BREEZY S WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH N OF NEB HWY 6. WINDS WERE NUDGED UPWARD 5 MPH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. A LEE- SIDE TROF WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN...STRENGTHENING THE PRES GRADIENT. WE MAY HAVE A STRATUS PROBLEM S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES THRU MIDDAY. MIXING AND THE THIN NATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ITS GRADUAL EROSION. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON ITS ULTIMATE EXTENT AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS. HIGH TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT. WAS PLANNING ON RAISING TEMPS ANOTHER 2-3F E OF HWY 281...BUT REFRAINED BECAUSE STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. TONIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FRZG. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY SUNSET... BUT SHOULD STILL BE GUSTY THRU THE EVENING HOURS. DO WE HAVE A FOG PROBLEM TOWARD DAWN FRI? NOT SURE BUT THIS NEEDS FURTHER EVALUATION BY THE DAY SHIFT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FRONTAL TROF MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-4 DEGS N OF NEB HWY 6. THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS /CONSRAW/ RULES IN THESE SITUATIONS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 459 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM FRIDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT BISECTING OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING ON FRIDAY...IT WILL NOT REALLY GET GOING STRONGER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THIS PUTS US IN A QUANDARY FOR DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH PAINTING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION OVER US FOR THE ENTIRE SYSTEM FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE NAM IS MORE HOPEFUL FOR PRECIPITATION . ALSO THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK SHOT AT SOME SNOW...BUT JUDGING BY THE MODEST STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THIS BEING DURING THE DAY AND BATTLING WARMED SURFACES...I AM LEANING MORE TOWARD RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND TRANSITIONING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. EVEN IF WE DO GET SOME SNOW...MUCH OF THIS WILL MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY WIND UP BEING A TAD ON THE EARLY SIDE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST...BUT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP ENOUGH AND IN TIME TO GIVE US MUCH SNOW AT ALL. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND HENCE...HOW MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...IS STILL UP FOR GRABS TO SOME EXTENT. I RAISED WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY ABOUT 5 TO 7 KTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WIND GUST TOOL...FOLLOWING CLOSER TO CONSRAW WIND GUSTS. AFTER A COOL DAY FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THE COOLER AIR...A WARM-UP WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE LOCAL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BY MONDAY...ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S...IF NOT 70S...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE APPROACHES AND DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS HARDLY WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE ECMWF PAINTS A STOUT QPF FIELD OVER OUR AREA...AND THE GFS SHUNTS MOST PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND TO SOME EXTENT...TO THE NORTHEAST...AS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SPLIT WITH THIS NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTION. SO LEAVING CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE...CONSIDERING THE LACK OF AGREEMENT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 THRU 15Z: AT 11Z THE VSBY DROPPED TO 6SM AND EXPECT IT TO DEGRADE TO MVFR. HSI/AUH/JYR ARE ALREADY THERE. SATELLITE CONTS TO SHOW LIFR STRATUS PROGRESSING N. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON IF THE STRATUS MAKES IT TO GRI. IT IS POSSIBLE. AFTER 15Z: IT DEPENDS ON THE STRATUS. ANY RESTRICTIVE CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DECAY 15Z-17Z. THEN VFR WITH BREEZY S WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. CONFIDENCE: HIGH AFTER 17Z. TONIGHT: VFR THRU 10Z WITH LLWS DEVELOPING AS DAYTIME GUSTINESS SUBSIDES. THERE COULD STILL BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST BEFORE 06Z. MVFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP IN LIGHT FOG LATE. COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND WINDSHIFT EXPECTED AROUND 11Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB LONG TERM...HEINLEIN AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
546 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FURTHER EAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SSWD INTO EASTERN TX. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA AND NRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A SECOND LOW NOTED OFF THE COAST OF OREGON. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH OVERCAST CONDS EXTENDING FROM MONTANA EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS STREAMED INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GARDEN CITY KS...TO CONCORDIA KS...TO NORFOLK NEBRASKA. THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTH NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOLNS...THIS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. EAST OF THIS FEATURE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT...WHICH HAS LED TO A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. 2 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 23 AT BROKEN BOW...TO 35 DEGREES AT VALENTINE && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 TEMPERATURES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR TODAY...SURFACE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 10C TO 12C...HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST ARE ON TRACK. THE ONE THING WHICH MAY BUST THE FORECAST IS THE PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDINESS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS HIGH CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. EVEN WITH THE LIMITED CLOUD COVER...DECENT MIXING SHOULD TRUMP ANY EFFECTS OF CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...INCREASED HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE AND UTILIZED MIXED H85 TEMPS FOR HIGHS TDY. FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NRN MINNESOTA...FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. LIFT WILL BE DECENT WITH THE FROPA...HOWEVER WITH THE MID LAYERS BEING FAIRLY DRY...DECIDED TO LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AS A SECOND...STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD TONIGHT...THANKS TO ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR SNOW TO THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AGAIN...QPF`S WILL BE LIGHT AS TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PCPN TO REACH THE SURFACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE FAR NORTH...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH A COLDER ARCTIC FRONT TO FOLLOW MIDDAY. SOUNDINGS ARE DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH TOP DOWN SATURATION NEEDED FOR PRECIP TO HIT THE GROUND. TEMPS IN THE MORNING FOR THE MOST PART NEAR OR ABOVE THE FREEZING...AND TEMPS JUST OFF THE SFC SHOULD BE ABOVE ZERO...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO START OUT AS RAIN...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON...FROM N TO S. AS FOR HIGHS...LOOKING LIKE EARLY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...MAYBE EARLY MORNING HIGHS NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER. AS FOR PRECIP TOTALS...WITH THE TOP DOWN SATURATION...AM CONCERNED MODELS MAYBE OVER DOWN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VARIES AS BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE ABLE TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT...THE LOWER LEVELS DRY QUICKLY. RADAR RETURNS ARE LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE LIGHTER RETURNS MAY NOT BE REACHING THE GROUND. OVERALL COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS...AND SNOWFALL TOTALS OF LESS THAN AN INCH. SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A COOL MARCH DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE SE WITH RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPS SURGE BACK TO 10C TO 15C. GFS EVEN WARMS SW NEB TO NEAR 17C AT 850 MB. GUIDANCE INTO THE 60S AND A FEW TAP 70...AND SEE NO REASON TO GO AGAINST THIS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH MOST AREAS LESS THAN A 5 DEGREE SPREAD FOR HIGHS. MORE UNCERTAIN DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY. NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS ACROSS NW NEB TO THE LOWER 60S...WHILE ANOTHER MID TO UPPER 60S /AND POSSIBLY 70/ AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WARM TEMPS WILL PROMOTE P TYPE AS RAIN AS LOWS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS NRN ZONES COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ALTHOUGH AFTER 2 DAYS IN THE 60S...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT FROM ANY OF THE SNOW. COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 546 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AON 25000 FT AGL WILL BEGIN TO DROP TO 12000 FT AGL BY 00Z FRIDAY. AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...CIGS WILL FALL FURTHER TO AROUND 5000 FT AGL. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A MENTION OF PCPN FROM THE 12Z TAF GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE. WINDS AT THE KVTN TERMINAL WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS AON 25000 FT AGL WILL LOWER TO 15000 FT AGL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER 08Z FRIDAY. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CLB SHORT TERM...CLB LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
501 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014 ...BREEZY AND VERY WARM TODAY AND WHILE WE WILL COOL DOWN FRI-SAT WE ARE STILL IN FOR MORE SPECTACULAR SPRING WARMTH SUN-MON... ALOFT: FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE N AMERICA WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL ADVANCE OVER THE REGION TODAY...AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OFF THE PACIFIC. THIS TROF WILL BEGIN TO DIG SE TONIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES DEEPER INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...A MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SURFACE: STRONG HIGH PRES IS OVER THE NE STATES AND QUEBEC...AND ENCOMPASSED THE ENTIRE ERN USA. THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR. A FRESH POLAR FRONT WAS ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER. A WEAK LOW WILL HEAD E TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK FRI. IN ITS WAKE...THE FRONT WILL DROP S THRU THE PLAINS. IT WILL MOVE INTO S-CNTRL NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT...BISECTING THE FCST AREA FROM ROUGHLY BEAVER CITY- FULLERTON NEB AT DAWN FRI. STRATUS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT E-SE-S OF THE FCST AREA...AND GRADUALLY CREEPING N. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON IT AND WE USED IT TO GUIDE THE FCST. THRU SUNRISE: PATCHY CIRROSTRATUS WILL MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL SUNRISE AWAY FROM LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM OVER N-CNTRL KS. VISIBILITIES ARE 4-5 MI AT 0830Z. IT ALL DEPENDS ON WINDS WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE S AND IF STRATUS MOVES IN. TODAY: OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY UNDER PATCHES OF 25K FT CIRROSTRATUS. BREEZY S WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH N OF NEB HWY 6. WINDS WERE NUDGED UPWARD 5 MPH FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. A LEE- SIDE TROF WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN...STRENGTHENING THE PRES GRADIENT. WE MAY HAVE A STRATUS PROBLEM S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES THRU MIDDAY. MIXING AND THE THIN NATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ITS GRADUAL EROSION. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON ITS ULTIMATE EXTENT AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS. HIGH TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT LOOK EXCELLENT. WAS PLANNING ON RAISING TEMPS ANOTHER 2-3F E OF HWY 281...BUT REFRAINED BECAUSE STRATUS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. TONIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FRZG. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY SUNSET... BUT SHOULD STILL BE GUSTY THRU THE EVENING HOURS. DO WE HAVE A FOG PROBLEM TOWARD DAWN FRI? NOT SURE BUT THIS NEEDS FURTHER EVALUATION BY THE DAY SHIFT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FRONTAL TROF MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-4 DEGS N OF NEB HWY 6. THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS /CONSRAW/ RULES IN THESE SITUATIONS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 459 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM FRIDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT BISECTING OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTH...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING ON FRIDAY...IT WILL NOT REALLY GET GOING STRONGER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THIS PUTS US IN A QUANDARY FOR DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH PAINTING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION OVER US FOR THE ENTIRE SYSTEM FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE NAM IS MORE HOPEFUL FOR PRECIPITATION . ALSO THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK SHOT AT SOME SNOW...BUT JUDGING BY THE MODEST STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THIS BEING DURING THE DAY AND BATTLING WARMED SURFACES...I AM LEANING MORE TOWARD RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND TRANSITIONING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. EVEN IF WE DO GET SOME SNOW...MUCH OF THIS WILL MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY WIND UP BEING A TAD ON THE EARLY SIDE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST...BUT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP ENOUGH AND IN TIME TO GIVE US MUCH SNOW AT ALL. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND HENCE...HOW MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...IS STILL UP FOR GRABS TO SOME EXTENT. I RAISED WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY ABOUT 5 TO 7 KTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WIND GUST TOOL...FOLLOWING CLOSER TO CONSRAW WIND GUSTS. AFTER A COOL DAY FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THE COOLER AIR...A WARM-UP WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE LOCAL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BY MONDAY...ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S...IF NOT 70S...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE APPROACHES AND DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS HARDLY WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE ECMWF PAINTS A STOUT QPF FIELD OVER OUR AREA...AND THE GFS SHUNTS MOST PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND TO SOME EXTENT...TO THE NORTHEAST...AS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SPLIT WITH THIS NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTION. SO LEAVING CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE...CONSIDERING THE LACK OF AGREEMENT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 THRU 12Z: VFR SKC INITIALLY THEN SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS INVADE. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH THU: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS GRADUALLY BECOMING A CIG AROUND 25K FT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 32 KTS 18Z-22Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH THU EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS DESCENDING TO 20K FT. SOME MID- LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN NEAR 06Z. DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDS AND WHILE THERE COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 23 KTS...EXPECT WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS. LLWS COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT IT HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED YET DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT. THE 18Z/00Z NAM HAVE IT. IF WE SEE IT IN THE 06Z CYCLE...WE WILL INCLUDE IT WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB LONG TERM...HEINLEIN AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
952 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 952 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...AND WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE NORTHEAST UNTIL 18Z. OTHERWISE...TEMPS COULD BE A BIT COOLER TODAY AND WILL LOWER THEM. IN ADDITION...THE MESO SCALE MODELS KEEP MOST PRECIP AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH 00Z...AND WILL TONE DOWN POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...AND WILL MONITOR THIS TREND AND MAY NEED TO ADD WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 CHALLENGES ABOUND THIS MORNING WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND A HODGEPODGE OF HEADLINES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT... BUT WILL FOLLOW THE RAP FOR DETAILS IN THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THUS IMPACTING P-TYPE AT THE SURFACE. EARLY THIS MORNING...A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL ND IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS ESTEVAN SASKATCHEWAN AND PURE RAIN FROM CROSBY TO WILLISTON...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAP 0 C ISOTHERM AT 850 HPA STRADDLES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THINK FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT P-TYPE. COULD STILL SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. FOR THESE REASONS...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND REPLACED IT WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 18 UTC. WILL TRIM WESTERN COUNTIES AT 15 UTC. EXPECT SPOTTY ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS...BUT EVEN A THIN GLAZE CAN CREATE SLICK CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT UNTIL 18 UTC FOR A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN MIX SINCE WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE DELAYED AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION AROUND THE NOON HOUR...ANOTHER BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY 850 HPA THERMAL GRADIENT. P-TYPE WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LANGDON TO PEMBINA TO BEMIDJI. WILL LIKELY NEED TO COVER THIS SCENARIO WITH ANOTHER ADVISORY...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THIS MORNING/S MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST ND. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...COLDER AIR WILL BE DELAYED SO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS SEEM REASONABLE. 1028 TO 1030 HPA SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SOLAR AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MN AND IA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FROM THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...BUT DIFFER IN MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION WITH THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT. FOR EXAMPLE...ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IS WELL EAST OF THE GFS...AND INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...WHILE THE GFS INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THE PREFERENCE FROM THE PMDEPD IS TOWARD THE ECMWF...WHICH THE ALLBLEND (CURRENT MODEL BLEND...BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST) MORE OR LESS DEPICTS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL MAKE PRECIP CHANCES DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT CHANCES DO EXIST (JUST NOT SURE WHERE OR WHEN). && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 704 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 VFR CONDITIONS (EXCEPT AT KBJI) WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO DECREASING CEILINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY IMPACTING KDVL/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI. PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BE A MIX OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET... BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ005-006-009. && $$ UPDATE...DK SHORT TERM...ROGERS LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
704 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 704 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 RADAR ECHOES HAVE MOVED QUICKLY INTO NORTHWEST MN...SO WAS ABLE TO CANCEL THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM PEMBINA TO GRAFTON TO CROOKSTON. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW SLEET REPORTS FROM PEMBINA/KITTSON COUNTIES WITH SOME AUTOMATED SITES ACROSS THE NORTH SHOWING LIGHT SNOW. OUTSIDE OF DEVILS LAKE EARLIER THIS MORNING...HAVE NOT HEARD OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN. DESPITE WARM 850 HPA TEMPERATURES...LAPS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE NEAR SURFACE COLD LAYER MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW HYDROMETEORS TO REFREEZE. FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET...ROADS WILL STILL BECOME SLICK IN SPOTS CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL SO WILL NOT SPLIT HAIRS BY CHANGING OVER TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. GIVEN CURRENT SPEED OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL BE ABLE TO DROP REMAINING HEADLINES BEFORE 18 UTC. CONSIDERED ISSUING ANOTHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH NEXT BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR SHOW DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 00 UTC TONIGHT. ONLY THE LOCAL WRF IS STILL BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO A BIT MORE ROBUST SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES... WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-EVALUATE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 CHALLENGES ABOUND THIS MORNING WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND A HODGEPODGE OF HEADLINES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT... BUT WILL FOLLOW THE RAP FOR DETAILS IN THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THUS IMPACTING P-TYPE AT THE SURFACE. EARLY THIS MORNING...A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL ND IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS ESTEVAN SASKATCHEWAN AND PURE RAIN FROM CROSBY TO WILLISTON...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAP 0 C ISOTHERM AT 850 HPA STRADDLES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THINK FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT P-TYPE. COULD STILL SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. FOR THESE REASONS...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND REPLACED IT WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 18 UTC. WILL TRIM WESTERN COUNTIES AT 15 UTC. EXPECT SPOTTY ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS...BUT EVEN A THIN GLAZE CAN CREATE SLICK CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT UNTIL 18 UTC FOR A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN MIX SINCE WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE DELAYED AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION AROUND THE NOON HOUR...ANOTHER BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY 850 HPA THERMAL GRADIENT. P-TYPE WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LANGDON TO PEMBINA TO BEMIDJI. WILL LIKELY NEED TO COVER THIS SCENARIO WITH ANOTHER ADVISORY...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THIS MORNING/S MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST ND. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...COLDER AIR WILL BE DELAYED SO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS SEEM REASONABLE. 1028 TO 1030 HPA SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SOLAR AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MN AND IA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FROM THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...BUT DIFFER IN MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION WITH THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT. FOR EXAMPLE...ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IS WELL EAST OF THE GFS...AND INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...WHILE THE GFS INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THE PREFERENCE FROM THE PMDEPD IS TOWARD THE ECMWF...WHICH THE ALLBLEND (CURRENT MODEL BLEND...BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST) MORE OR LESS DEPICTS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL MAKE PRECIP CHANCES DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT CHANCES DO EXIST (JUST NOT SURE WHERE OR WHEN). && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 704 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 VFR CONDITIONS (EXCEPT AT KBJI) WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO DECREASING CEILINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY IMPACTING KDVL/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI. PRECIPITATION MAY INTIALLY BE A MIX OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET... BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ004-007-008- 013>017. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ005-006-009. && $$ UPDATE...ROGERS SHORT TERM...ROGERS LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 CHALLENGES ABOUND THIS MORNING WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND A HODGEPODGE OF HEADLINES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT... BUT WILL FOLLOW THE RAP FOR DETAILS IN THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THUS IMPACTING P-TYPE AT THE SURFACE. EARLY THIS MORNING...A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL ND IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS ESTEVAN SASKATCHEWAN AND PURE RAIN FROM CROSBY TO WILLISTON...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAP 0 C ISOTHERM AT 850 HPA STRADDLES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THINK FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT P-TYPE. COULD STILL SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. FOR THESE REASONS...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND REPLACED IT WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 18 UTC. WILL TRIM WESTERN COUNTIES AT 15 UTC. EXPECT SPOTTY ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS...BUT EVEN A THIN GLAZE CAN CREATE SLICK CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT UNTIL 18 UTC FOR A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN MIX SINCE WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE DELAYED AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION AROUND THE NOON HOUR...ANOTHER BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY 850 HPA THERMAL GRADIENT. P-TYPE WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LANGDON TO PEMBINA TO BEMIDJI. WILL LIKELY NEED TO COVER THIS SCENARIO WITH ANOTHER ADVISORY...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THIS MORNING/S MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST ND. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...COLDER AIR WILL BE DELAYED SO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS SEEM REASONABLE. 1028 TO 1030 HPA SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SOLAR AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MN AND IA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FROM THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...BUT DIFFER IN MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION WITH THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT. FOR EXAMPLE...ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IS WELL EAST OF THE GFS...AND INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...WHILE THE GFS INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THE PREFERENCE FROM THE PMDEPD IS TOWARD THE ECMWF...WHICH THE ALLBLEND (CURRENT MODEL BLEND...BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST) MORE OR LESS DEPICTS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL MAKE PRECIP CHANCES DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT CHANCES DO EXIST (JUST NOT SURE WHERE OR WHEN). && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014 MVFR CIGS BREAKING UP AS DRIER 850 MB AIR MOVING EASTWARD THRU ERN ND AND ENTERING THE RRV. AT THE SAME TIME A 45KT 925 MB SOUTHERLY WIND TRANSPORTING A STRATUS DECK QUICKLY NORTHWARD THRU ERN SD/WRN MN. 925 MB WINDS TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...SO QUESTION OF THE TAF IS HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG WILL THIS IFR OR LOW END MVFR CIG DECK WILL ARRIVE AND LINGER. WENT A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC. DID NOT INCLUDE PCPN AT ANY TAF SITE LATER TONIGHT-THU MORNING DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND TYPE...BUT DOES EXIST POTENTIAL FOR SHORT PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW DVL-GFK-TVF AFTER 09Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST MID AFTN DVL AND LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE IN GFK-TVF WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006- 014-015-024-026-028>030. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ007-008-016- 027-054. MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001-004-007- 008-013>017. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ005-006-009. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROGERS LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
540 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 THE FIRST QUESTION AS FAR AS IMPORTANT WEATHER IS WHETHER OR NOT WE NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THE BLOWING SNOW IN SOUTHWEST MN BACK TO BROOKINGS SD...WHERE THE BEST SNOW FELL AND WHERE THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. WEBCAMS AND REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATE FEW VISIBILITY PROBLEMS BEING REPORTED THOUGH SNOW IS BLOWING OVER ROADS. THE SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NEARING THEIR PEAK BUT PROBABLY WILL NOT GET THERE UNTIL A BIT AFTER DAYBREAK. BELIEVE MENTION IN THE FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH AS WE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE THREATENING WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS. THE WINDS THEMSELVES ARE GENERALLY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...SOME WINDS NUDGING INTO THE BOTTOM OF THAT ZONES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE BUT FEEL THIS IS NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH AREA WINDS TO WARRANT A HIGHLIGHT FOR THAT. WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG OUTSIDE THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA...AND WINDS SHOULD SHOW A SLOW DECREASE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER QUESTION RELATES TO CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS NOT REALLY MUCH OF A PROBLEM ASIDE FROM THE FINE DETAILS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE EASTERN CWA STRATUS DECK. THIS IS JUST ABOUT WHAT WE EXPECTED A DAY AGO FOR THIS TIME. A COMBINATION OF HEATING AND DRYING IN THE STRONG FLOW SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THIS STRATUS FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SHOW THE DECK WILL ACTUALLY BE ERODING FROM THE TOP...THIS HAS BEEN MOST APPARENT ON THE RAP RH PROJECTIONS FOR H900/925/950 MB. A THICKER DECK WOULD BE A LOT MORE STUBBORN BUT THIS ONE SHOULD BREAK UP STEADILY. SKIES WILL TEND TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH CLOUDS COME AND GO. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY AS WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING THEM CONSIDERING THE EXISTING SNOW COVER...WITH EVERYBODY EXPECTED TO BUST THE FREEZING MARK AND GETTING AS WARM AS 50 SOUTHWEST IN GREGORY COUNTY. COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS WEAK AND WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH MAINLY A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET POTENTIAL. IF THIS POTENTIAL DEVELOPS THERE WOULD BE PROBLEMS...BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN DECENT MODEL SUPPORT TO PUN THE PRECIPITATION DOWN ANY BETTERED AT THIS TIME. IN THE MILD AIR NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT....LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THUS MOST OF US WILL SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY IN THE 20S AND 30S. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. 0Z NAM IS STRONGEST WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND IS ALSO QUICKER WITH THE PV ANOMALY EXITING THE ROCKIES. THE INTERACTION OF THE TWO LEADS TO HIGHER QPF SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE 0Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND THE PV ANOMALY...RESULTING IN LESS INTERACTION AND WEAKER LIFT...THUS ALLOWING THE DRY AIR TO MAINLY WIN OUT. THE STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS FROM THE NAM IS POSSIBLE...AS IT USUALLY CATCHES ON TO THAT FIRST WITH ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. A STRONGER FRONT WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE WE SATURATE AND GET SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVEN FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER FEEL THE SLOWER AND WEAKER PV ANOMALY FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF IS MORE LIKELY...AS THE NAM SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER AND CAN REALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS BEYOND 24 HOURS. THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT AND PUSH SOUTH SOME OF THE HIGHER QPF VALUES SEEN ON THE NAM DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL GO WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT BUT WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING IDEA...WHICH RESULTS IN POPS PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR TAPERING AS YOU HEAD NORTH. THIS ALSO RESULTS IN A BLENDED QPF...SLIGHTLY SKEWED TOWARDS THE DRIER SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM. WARM AIR ALOFT INITIALLY MAY RESULT IN A LIGHT WINTRY MIX INITIALLY...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN AND WE WET BULB. AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW THOUGH...MAINLY JUST A LIGHT COATING OF ICE OR SNOW...MAYBE UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOW ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS THOUGH...AS IF THE NAM VERIFIED SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE HIGHER IN OUR SOUTH...BUT AGAIN THIS SEEMS LIKE A LOWER PROBABILITY EVENT AT THIS TIME. IT WILL BE A COLD ONE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS COMMON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE COLD LOW LEVELS WILL HANG ON...RESULTING IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. HOWEVER THE WARMUP REALLY BEGINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SUGGESTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IS INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST FROM THE SNOWPACK AND HOW MUCH IT INHIBITS WARMING. GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW COVER OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...THINK THEY WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 40S BOTH DAYS. MORE UNCERTAIN ELSEWHERE...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOWPACK WE LOSE OVER THE COMING DAYS. WITH THE MARCH SUN...MELTING COULD BE PRETTY EFFICIENT...HOWEVER TODAY AND TOMORROW MAY TEND TO STAY MAINLY CLOUDY...AND SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER...SO NOT SURE WHERE WE WILL BE SNOWPACK WISE COME SUNDAY. THUS STAYED ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE FOR NOW ON SUNDAY. DID WARM HIGHS ON MONDAY OVER ALLBLEND THOUGH...AS MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE SNOW COVER WILL BE LESS OF A FACTOR OUTSIDE OF OUR EASTERN AREAS. THUS 50S AND LOW 60S SHOULD BE A GOOD BET ON MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS BOTH DAYS COULD END UP SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST DEPENDING ON THE ABOVE SNOW COVER IMPACT THOUGH...SO WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH NOT THAT COLD OF AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE HIGHS COULD STAY IN THE 30S AND 40S. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT...BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN THE WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 540 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN FOG WITH LOCAL VISIBILITIES 1-3SM FROM SUX TO JUST EAST OF HON AND EAST WILL SLOWLY BECOME VFR FROM THE WEST 15Z-07/00Z. VFR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. LOCAL SOUTHERLY SURFACE GUSTS ABOVE 25 KNOTS OVER SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH 20Z. AFTER 07/06Z CEILINGS 2-4K FEET WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NNW BEHIND CDFNT. A FEW AREAS OF -FZRA ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...CHENARD AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1020 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014 .DISCUSSION...GULF COAST SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF SOUTH OF MOBILE AL AT 14Z. ANY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM STILL SOUTH OF I-20...SO RAIN CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RUC MODEL DOES MOVE SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO SW NC VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS DOES LATEST RUN OF NAM MODEL. THUS...WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR SE TN AND SW NC WITH REMAINING AREAS DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MAINLY AFFECTING SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUNSHINE STILL IN THE MIX ACROSS SW VA AND NE TN. TEMPS ACTUALLY RUNNING AT OR ABOVE HOURLY GRIDS SO FAR THIS MORNING. WILL ADJUST A FEW TEMPS AS NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING AND FRESHEN ANY AFFECTED PRODUCTS. FOR TONIGHT...12Z NAM MODEL STILL WARM OVER OUR FORECAST AREA BUT DOES ALLOW FOR A POSSIBLE MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN OVER OUR FAR NE CORNER SUCH AS RUSSELL AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES OF SW VA. THIS WOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD AND SOUNDINGS MUCH TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW. WILL WAIT FOR REST OF 12Z MODEL DATA AND STICK WITH CURRENT GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 54 38 61 39 67 / 30 60 20 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 37 57 36 65 / 10 50 20 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 55 37 58 36 63 / 10 40 10 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 31 53 33 63 / 10 70 30 10 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
601 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .DISCUSSION... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION. && .AVIATION... IR/3.9-11 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ERODING AS COLD FRONT PUSHS TO NEAR THE COAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR/MFVR CIGS TO IMPROVE OVER THE LAST HOUR. EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. CONCERNED THAT CLOUD COVER OVER N TX MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA BUT MODELS ARE MIXING ENOUGH THAT DOUBT THERE WILL BE OVC/BKN MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. LIKED HRRR RUNS WHERE THESE CLOUDS DO ERODE BUT STILL DEVELOP SCT/BKN CLOUDS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 39 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/ DISCUSSION... A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS WERE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS EMERGED BEGINNING SUNDAY. OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL SITE MEX AND ECMWF GUIDANCE NUMBERS DIFFERED BY MORE THAN 10 DEGREES. BECAUSE OF THIS...DECIDED TO TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODELS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO SE TX. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO SCATTER OUT AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS MAY GET UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE NIGHT OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. AM LESS CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE MORE DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 WAS DRIER FOR SATURDAY EVEN WITH THE MODEL PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF WAS VERY WET WHILE THE GFS WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS DID NOT SHOW A LOT OF INSTABILITY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS CONFIRMED BY FORECASTS OF THE LIFTED INDEX FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE DRIER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF DIFFERED EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY. DECIDED LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE PREVIOUS RAIN CHANCE FORECAST AND BLEND IN WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER IN TIMING AND LOCATION...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PUSH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX AND OFF THE COAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...KEPT SOME RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...OFF THE COAST TUESDAY...AND AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. 40 MARINE... FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH SE TX TODAY SHOULD REACH THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT N/NW WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS. WILL HAVE SCEC AS DO NOT SEE SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20KTS TO WARRANT SCA. SCEC WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER E TX TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH OFF THE COAST SOMETIME SUNDAY BUT ALL MODELS SHOW CONFLICTING TIMING. GFS/ECMWF EVEN HAVING TROUBLE DETERMINING IF A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY (ECMWF) OR TUESDAY (GFS). THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT WINDS/SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ECMWF HAS STRONG COLD FRONT ON WED WHERE GFS HAS FRONT COMING THROUGH NEXT THUR. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 38 67 50 69 / 0 0 10 10 40 HOUSTON (IAH) 60 39 66 51 71 / 10 0 10 10 30 GALVESTON (GLS) 59 47 61 55 67 / 10 0 10 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM... WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...40 AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
924 AM PST Thu Mar 6 2014 .Synopsis... Lingering showers are possible today, along with a few thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. Dry and mild conditions expected for Friday and Saturday. A disturbance late Sunday into Monday will bring another chance of precipitation to the area. && .Discussion... Disturbance will drop southeast over Norcal this afternoon increasing shower and isolated thunderstorm coverage. The best coverage will be over the northern valley and mountains along with the Sierra. HRRR model pinpoints Butte county and Lassen area with best convective coverage this afternoon and have updated forecast to shift threat into these areas. Small hail will be possible in some of the stronger storms. Models not showing much precip in the valleys...but will keep isolated showers in the forecast with disturbance nearby. Otherwise...forecast is on track. .Previous Discussion... A convective band which pushed through Norcal this evening brought some excitement in the form of heavy rain and lightning. 450+ cloud-to-ground strikes were recorded between 9pm and 2am. Conditions have quieted down now, with area radars showing lingering showers mostly confined to the mountains and no lightning activity. Interestingly, this convection was accomplished without much upper-level dynamics. The NAM suggests the main trigger was strong cold air advection aloft combined with a favorable moisture tap near the surface. Better upper-level dynamics can be expected today as a shortwave trough and associated vortmax push through NorCal. Convective parameters such as MUCAPE look much more impressive than yesterday evening in fact. Lapse rates remain fairly steep with CAA aloft. The only component less favorable than yesterday is less low-level moisture to work with. Drier conditions may limit convection to cumulus development as opposed to showers and thunderstorms, as hinted at by the NAM12 in buffkit. If anything does get going, there will be plenty of shear aloft with trough passage. Have gone with a chance of showers and slight chance thunder from Sacramento northward. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet by the afternoon, although it appears light precip amounts will limit accumulations to only a few inches over the passes. Breezy conditions can be expected for the higher Sierra. Showers decrease quickly Thursday evening as ridging builds into the West Coast. Temperatures will be warm but not record- breaking, rising into the 70s in the Central Valley 50s/60s in the mountains. The ridge begins to break down Sunday allowing a 1.25"+ PWAT tap to approach the NorCal coast, while A trough moving into the Pacific NW provides some weak dynamics. Models are in fair agreement in pushing a resulting precipitation band across our area by late Sunday. The best chances look to be initially north of I-80, then eventually spreading to the whole area by Monday. -DVC && .Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday) Pacific frontal system still on track to drop across NORCAL early Monday with only slight timing differences across models. Dynamics with this system are not overly impressive. The subtropical moisture plume feeding into this system is fairly impressive however with GFS still showing 1.35 inches TPW just offshore. Still...with relatively weak dynamics...Models showing this storm will be a low to moderate precipitation producer and with snow levels mainly above 7000 feet impacts should be minimal. With warm airmass and some afternoon clearing possible...looking for daytime highs on Monday at a few degrees above normal. Extended models in good agreement in building a high amplitude ridge over the west coast so after a few possible lingering showers Tuesday morning...precipitation threat disappears for at least the remainder of the week. Daytime highs under the ridge will remain well above normal under mainly fair skies Wednesday through Thursday. Surface high pressure pushing into the Pacific Northwest will bring a transition to northerly winds Tuesday. GFS model shows a fairly tight northeast surface gradient developing Wednesday morning as an upper shortwave drops into the great basin. Therefore...a period of breezy to gusty north winds will be possible around the middle of next week. Current extended models are indicating that there will be no return of a wet pattern for Northern California through at least next weekend. && .Aviation... A second Pacific front will be moving across interior Norcal roughly from late morning into the afternoon. Line of showers and isolated thunderstorms expected to affect TAF sites mainly central and Nrn SAC vly from KMYV...Nwd to KRBL and KRDD. MVFR cigs/vsbys expected with showers and isolated TRWS in proximity of front...otherwise mostly VFR conditions. VFR all areas tonight. South to Southwest winds with gusts to 30 knots higher Sierra elevations today. Sly winds up to 10 knots in the valley. && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1018 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014 .UPDATE... && .SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. SATELLITE SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO COLORADO. GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS. COMBINATION OF MIXING AND CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW OF AROUND 35 KTS WILL KEEP WINDS A BIT GUSTY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER RIDGES...WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 60 MPH AT TIMES. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH NEAR THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL. AIRMASS FAIRLY WARM WITH READINGS ALREADY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE DENVER AREA. DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S DESPITE THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. READINGS COULD APPROACH 70 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES A BIT UNSTABLE. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SO THE CURRENT ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 31 AND 33 STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH AMOUNT OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ZONE 31 AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS ZONE 33. .AVIATION...CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK...THOUGH WILL DELAY THE WESTERLY WINDS AT KDEN AND KAPA TO 19Z PER THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT THE NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASING DURING THE EVENING AND MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO DRAINAGE BEFORE GOING NORTHWEST AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE EVENING. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 18Z FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AT THIS TIME...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH DUE TO EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014/ SHORT TERM...BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TODAY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND 700MB TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR +5C. TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TODAY AS CROSS BARRIER FLOW 30-40KT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-60 MPH RANGE. ALREADY SEEING A FEW WIND GUSTS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES FROM 30 TO 55 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MID-HI LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THIS WILL ADVANCE INTO COLORADO LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANY CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING AND HAVE REMOVED MOST OF THE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT ZONE 31. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE DEEPENS ALONG WITH WEAK QG FORCING. LOCAL SNOW MODELS YIELDS ABOUT 2-5 INCHES IN ZONE 31 AND 1-3 INCHES IN ZONE 33-34. GIVEN HEAVIER SNOW TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AND BEYOND WILL ISSUE ADVISORY FROM LATER THIS EVENING IN ZONES 31 AND 34 BUT HOLD OFF ON ZONE 34 UNTIL DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT...GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT BUT MIGHT BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TOWARDS THE NORTHERN BORDER LATE IN THE NIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. LONG TERM...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER...UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL BE PUSHING FURTHER INTO THE STATE TO TURN FLOW UPSLOPE AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THIS WILL GET ZONE 34...THE I-70 CORRIDOR MOUNTAINS...GOING WITH BETTER SNOW PRODUCTION. THEREFORE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT THERE AT 6 AM. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODELS AS THEY HAVE HAD GOOD CONSISTENCY WHEREAS THE NAM IS TOO FAST AS IT KEEPS THE TROUGH TOO OPEN AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH. GOOD MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED OVER THE PACIFIC WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS WITH ONE TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT THAT COLD WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAX TEMPERATURES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE UPPER 20S AT THE HIGHER PEAKS TO UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH VALLEYS. THEREFORE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE LOW. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES TURNING TO DOWNWARD MOTION TO BEGIN TO DECREASE SNOW OVER THE PARK AND GORE RANGES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT MOUNTAINS NEAR ROCKY MOUNTAIN NP. CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW SLIGHTLY MORE UPWARD QG MOTIONS WILL KEEP SNOW GOING OVER THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. OVERALL 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE PARK AND GORE RANGES...THEN 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING SUMMIT COUNTY. MUCH DRIER AIR UNDER AN INCOMING RIDGE ALONG WITH DOWNWARD QG MOTIONS WILL DIMINISH SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUED DRY PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY. OVER THE PLAINS...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S EXPECTED. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN COOLING HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO LITTLE TO NONE. THE MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONE TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY...AND IS VERIFIED BY THE CURRENT AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DISPLAYING SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE STATE FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MORE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED TO ADD A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS AIRMASS ENDS UP ON COURSE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AGAIN ON SATURDAY THEN MUCH MORE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS UPPER 60S OVER THE PLAINS AND IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR NICE EARLY SPRING WEATHER. THE NEXT PROGGED SYSTEM WILL BE A LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS STILL FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT HAS SHOWN SOME SLOWING OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS...CLOSER TO THE GFS. HAVE BLENDED THESE TWO MODELS WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THE THE MOUNTAINS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES SOUTH. AVIATION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS OF 10-20KT THIS MORNING AND WILL SHIFT WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT ALONG WITH MODEST SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE. INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS AM AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ034. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COZ031-033. && $$ SHORT TERM...D-L LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
416 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014 .UPDATE...ISSUED LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL SE GA AND NE FL FOR THIS EVENING. OBS AT SSI...NRB...AND SGJ SHOW NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT AS EASTERN GULF SURFACE LOW LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. .NEAR TERM (TONIGHT)... HRRR HI-RES GUIDANCE DOING GENERALLY A GOOD JOB...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE SLOW WITH EASTWARD MOTION...ON PRECIP BAND THAT MOVED ACROSS FL PENINSULA AND SRN GA. PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA SINCE 1PM, AGAIN A BIT AHEAD OF HRRR GUIDANCE. OUR HOURLY POP GRIDS REFLECT LOW POPS ACRS NRN FL...SOMEWHAT HIGHER ACROSS SRN GA WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEW DEVELOPMENT WRAPPING AROUND UPPER SYSTEM. LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH THE PASSING UPPER SYSTEM...BETTER COVERAGE NORTH THAN SOUTH. WITH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT... GOING TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS. .SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA ON FRIDAY MORNING...CREATING NUMEROUS...MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LOCATIONS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF GAINESVILLE AND ST. AUGUSTINE. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER RAW DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S FROM THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY MAY BRING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL...WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH THE MID 60S LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD EARLY MARCH NIGHT. SOME PATCHES OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 30S. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S AT THE COAST AS NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL DURING THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WHERE COLD SHELF WATERS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO APPROACH 70 AT INLAND LOCATIONS...WHICH IS NEAR CLIMO FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR NORTHEAST/NORTH CENTRAL FL. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS INLAND WILL FALL TO NEAR CLIMO...IN THE 40S...WITH 50S AT THE COAST. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE DEMISE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND AREA-WIDE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND...WITH UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CREATE OFFSHORE FLOW...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. LOWS WILL ALSO CLIMO ABOVE CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 50S EXPECTED REGION-WIDE. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH OUR ARE FROM THE WEST BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT THAN THE 12Z GFS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR WED AND WED EVENING...WITH ISOLATED POPS EXPECTED FOR THURS AS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE POTENTIALLY IMPACTS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO ON WED...AND WE MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SUBSTANTIALLY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED 12Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL VERIFIES. && .AVIATION... IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SLOT ALOFT SPREADING EAST OVER GULF OF MEX TOWARD FL. PRECIPITATION BAND OVER FL PENINSULA WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME AREAS WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE PRECIP BAND. HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR AND OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGEST IFR CIGS WILL BE DOMINANT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HINT AT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS BY AROUND 14Z FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FROM MAYPORT NORTHWARD...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RE-DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS PERSISTING IN THE 6-9 FOOT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK INTO FRIDAY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS. BREAKERS OF AROUND 3 TO 5 FT ARE ANTICIPATED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 39 53 35 67 / 60 60 10 0 SSI 46 53 44 62 / 70 50 10 0 JAX 47 56 37 68 / 40 40 10 0 SGJ 52 59 45 64 / 30 30 10 0 GNV 47 60 37 69 / 30 30 10 0 OCF 50 63 40 70 / 30 20 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-NASSAU- ST JOHNS. GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM. && $$ WOLF/NELSON/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
336 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]... A relatively weak wake low / pressure trough did manage to develop late this morning behind the trailing edge of the stratiform rain region. MSLP at TLH ASOS fell 2.2mb in an hour (15-16z), which was a little lower in magnitude than what the hi-res models were showing. It also occurred a bit earlier, prior to the 925-850mb wind field strengthening. Therefore, the wind gusts across the area were a bit weaker as well, peaking around 30 mph. The steadier rain has since cleared out of the area, but the low stratus and some areas of drizzle have persisted into the afternoon. Model forecast soundings from the NAM and RAP both show a shallow layer of vertical motion below 5000 ft through the early evening, so we included some drizzle wording in the forecast. Eventually tonight, a second round of steadier rain is expected to move through the area as DCVA becomes maximized with the approach of the mid-level low center. Rainfall should be fairly light, but models have been consistent in showing this so we went with likely (~60%) PoPs. .Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... We will finally see an end to the cool and wet weather that has been entrenched the past several days as we move into the weekend, although we will remain below normal for another day with cool northerly winds Friday. The main upper low will SHIFT OVER THE AREA AND maintain low clouds and a chance/slgt chance PoPs to start the day tomorrow, with low clouds likely to slowly erode from west to east during the afternoon. High temp forecasts will be tricky tomorrow depending on how early clouds can erode. Will keep WRN AREAS WARMING UP A BIT MORE THAN AROUND I-75, but still well below normal for this time of year, with highs around 60f. Locales into central GA will be the slowest to shake the clouds and highs will likely stay in the lower to mid 50s. Once this weather system exits, a return to sun and near normal temperatures will commence quickly with highs in the lower 70s Saturday. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... We will remain in a fairly active pattern for the next 7 days, with normal temperatures and fairly low rain chances for Sunday into early next week. However, another strong system will be looming as we get into the mid week with rain chances once again increasing by Wednesday. Thursday into Friday could see a return to below normal temperatures behind the next strong cold front. && .Aviation... [Through 18Z Friday] We expect IFR or LIFR CIGS to persist through the night. Some light rain will move back into the area overnight, but should not significantly reduce visibility. Gradual improvement to MVFR CIGS is expected after 12z, with stratus scattering out and VFR developing in the afternoon. && .Marine... Modest offshore winds will sustain cautionary levels through tonight and Friday morning, before conditions improve significantly by the weekend. Clouds and rain showers chances will decrease during the afternoon tomorrow, with light easterly winds and sunny skies returning for Saturday. && .Fire Weather... Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days with RH well above critical thresholds and recent wetting rains. && .Hydrology... Rainfall, mostly from this morning but additional showers will add to that tonight, will average 1-2 inches across the area. These totals are well below flash flood guidance, so flash flooding is not expected. However, several points along area rivers may rise to "action" stage by next week, meaning that some of our rivers could be "primed" for flooding for the next round of soaking rain. The next system to look out for comes mid-next week, although at this time WPC QPF forecast is low, around 0.5-1.0", with higher rainfall totals over the coastal waters. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 42 59 38 72 44 / 60 20 0 0 10 Panama City 43 60 48 68 52 / 60 20 0 0 10 Dothan 39 59 40 72 49 / 60 20 0 0 10 Albany 39 57 37 72 47 / 60 40 0 0 10 Valdosta 41 56 37 71 45 / 60 40 0 0 0 Cross City 45 60 37 72 44 / 50 30 0 0 0 Apalachicola 44 59 45 66 50 / 50 20 0 0 0 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for Coastal Franklin. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...EVANS LONG TERM...EVANS AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...EVANS FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...WESTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
323 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014 .NEAR TERM (TONIGHT)... HRRR HI-RES GUIDANCE DOING GENERALLY A GOOD JOB...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE SLOW WITH EASTWARD MOTION...ON PRECIP BAND THAT MOVED ACROSS FL PENINSULA AND SRN GA. PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA SINCE 1PM, AGAIN A BIT AHEAD OF HRRR GUIDANCE. OUR HOURLY POP GRIDS REFLECT LOW POPS ACRS NRN FL...SOMEWHAT HIGHER ACROSS SRN GA WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEW DEVELOPMENT WRAPPING AROUND UPPER SYSTEM. LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH THE PASSING UPPER SYSTEM...BETTER COVERAGE NORTH THAN SOUTH. WITH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT... GOING TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS. .SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA ON FRIDAY MORNING...CREATING NUMEROUS...MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LOCATIONS...AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF GAINESVILLE AND ST. AUGUSTINE. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER RAW DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S FROM THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY MAY BRING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL...WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH THE MID 60S LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD EARLY MARCH NIGHT. SOME PATCHES OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 30S. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S AT THE COAST AS NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL DURING THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WHERE COLD SHELF WATERS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO APPROACH 70 AT INLAND LOCATIONS...WHICH IS NEAR CLIMO FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR NORTHEAST/NORTH CENTRAL FL. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS INLAND WILL FALL TO NEAR CLIMO...IN THE 40S...WITH 50S AT THE COAST. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE DEMISE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND AREA-WIDE. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND...WITH UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO A SEA BREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CREATE OFFSHORE FLOW...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. LOWS WILL ALSO CLIMO ABOVE CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 50S EXPECTED REGION-WIDE. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH OUR ARE FROM THE WEST BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT THAN THE 12Z GFS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR WED AND WED EVENING...WITH ISOLATED POPS EXPECTED FOR THURS AS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE POTENTIALLY IMPACTS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO ON WED...AND WE MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SUBSTANTIALLY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED 12Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL VERIFIES. && .AVIATION... IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SLOT ALOFT SPREADING EAST OVER GULF OF MEX TOWARD FL. PRECIPITATION BAND OVER FL PENINSULA WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME AREAS WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE PRECIP BAND. HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR AND OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGEST IFR CIGS WILL BE DOMINANT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HINT AT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS BY AROUND 14Z FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FROM MAYPORT NORTHWARD...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RE-DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS PERSISTING IN THE 6-9 FOOT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK INTO FRIDAY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS. BREAKERS OF AROUND 3 TO 5 FT ARE ANTICIPATED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 39 53 35 67 / 60 60 10 0 SSI 46 53 44 62 / 70 50 10 0 JAX 47 56 37 68 / 40 40 10 0 SGJ 52 59 45 64 / 30 30 10 0 GNV 47 60 37 69 / 30 30 10 0 OCF 50 63 40 70 / 30 20 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM. && $$ WOLF/NELSON/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
115 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014 .AVIATION... STRONG SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ALREADY PASSES KAPF...EASTERN TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED BY IT WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. +TSRA WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 40-50 KTS COULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THEREFORE TAFS WILL BE AMENDED IF NECESSARY. AFTER 00Z...WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY WHILE WEAKENING TO AROUND 10 KTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014/ ..ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FORMIDABLE LINE OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. LOTS OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE GULF. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS TAKE THIS LINE OF STORMS INTO THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON (HRRR SHOWING 1-2 PM), THEN EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING (HRRR SHOWING 4-7 PM). SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE GULF CONVECTION OVERSPREADING CENTRAL FL AND NOW ENTERING INTO SW FLORIDA TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...AND HRRR DEVELOPS CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE ACROSS SE FL WITH MOVEMENT NORTH. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NOW IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE...AND WILL BE WATCHING THOSE MORE DISCREET CELLS CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE ROTATION ONCE THEY DEVELOP. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS EAST COAST THROUGH 1 PM WITH POTENTIAL FOR THOSE DISCREET CELLS DEVELOPING, THEN INCREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. WIND THREAT IS HIGHER THAN A TORNADO THREAT GIVEN VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH TIME TODAY, BUT NEED TO WATCH ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC COAST FOR A POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LESSER IMPACTS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE (WITH CELLS AHEAD OF MAIN LINE) ALONG WITH ISOLATED STREET FLOODING. A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AHEAD. /GREGORIA PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014/ AVIATION... A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE VFR IS CURRENTLY FORECAST, CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR UNDER ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT. AVIATION...BNB/SI PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014/ DISCUSSION... THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE LIGHTNING COUNT WITHIN THESE STORMS HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY INTERACT WITH A LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT H5 TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE EXTREME NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IMPULSE COMBINED WITH A LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT TO KEEP THESE STORMS GOING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THEY SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING UNDER A MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BUT WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. BY MIDDAY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS IT DOES...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST FURTHER INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROVIDING ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THE SEVERITY REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR THAT WILL FACILITATE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL BRING THE LOW INTO THE PENINSULA SOMEWHERE AROUND THE BIG BEND AREA SOUTH TO TAMPA AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE EARLY CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS COULD ALSO ALLOW MODEST SURFACE HEATING TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUD COVER...THUS INCREASING INSTABILITY WHILE REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD CIRRUS DECK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH POSSIBLY A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT HEATING AND BETTER THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS THAN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -4C TO -5C. H5 TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROGGED AROUND -10C TO -12C WHICH WITH THE GIVEN INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. MODEL SOUNDING DEPICTIONS OF 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES HAVE INCREASED AND NOW RANGE FROM AROUND 100 TO 150 M2/S2 WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO FACILITATE AN INCREASE IN 0-1 KM SHEAR. ALL IN ALL...THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. BY EARLY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TREKKING NORTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEEPEN FURTHER AS THE PARENT H5 TROUGH BECOMES MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT. BY THIS TIME...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN DRAGGING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY IT. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MORE LINEAR IN NATURE AND COULD POSE AN ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITHIN STRONGER LINE SEGMENTS. THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THEY BECOME MORE DISCONNECTED FROM BETTER DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND WITH HEATING LOSS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA FOR GOOD BY FRIDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PLEASANT AND MILD WEEKEND FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MARINE... DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A NW-N WIND WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND VEER TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS ALSO SUBSIDING LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 69 81 56 77 / 50 10 0 0 FORT LAUDERDALE 71 81 58 77 / 50 20 0 0 MIAMI 71 81 59 78 / 60 20 0 0 NAPLES 65 76 54 76 / 40 10 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG AVIATION/RADAR...17/ERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 338 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 333 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014 A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXISTS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT OVER RESIDUAL SNOWPACK. WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP AS WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE 4 KM WRF MODEL AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST. A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS WHICH INDICATE SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THEREFORE MIXING AS OPPOSED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THAT WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING. WE`VE INSERTED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT, SINCE A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKER ON MUCH FRIDAY MORNING THAN FOG DID THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FASTER AS WELL, REACHING AROUND 60 DEGREES SOUTH AND EAST OF WICHITA, AND COOLER UPPER 40S OR LOW 50S FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 333 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014 A COUPLE OF WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST TO IMPACT THE AREA IS ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING INITIAL A CHANCE OF RAIN, RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE A COMPLETE PHASE CHANCE LOOKS REASONABLE EARLY SATURDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS LOW SNOW RATIOS FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PRECIPITATION EPISODE. FOLLOWING THE WAVE ON SATURDAY, A SLOW WARMUP ON SUNDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MARKED WARMUP APPEARS LIKELY FOR VERY EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WIDESPREAD 60`S ON MONDAY. FAR LESS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXISTS AT THIS TIME WITH THE NEXT WAVE/FRONTAL PASSAGE MOST LIKELY CENTERED AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS PRODUCES A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION THAN THE WET ECMWF. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014 STRATUS WILL THIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME SCATTERED IN MOST LOCATIONS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STEEPENS. AS RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPS TONIGHT, MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGLY TOWARD ANOTHER OVERNIGHT WITH IFR OR LOWER CATEGORY STRATUS WITH VLIFR VISIBILITIES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS A COLD SURFACE LAYER WHICH TENDS TO SUPPORT ADVECTION FOG. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 33 58 30 40 / 0 10 50 60 HUTCHINSON 32 54 28 41 / 0 10 40 50 NEWTON 33 55 28 40 / 0 10 40 50 ELDORADO 34 58 30 40 / 0 10 50 50 WINFIELD-KWLD 34 60 32 40 / 0 10 60 60 RUSSELL 32 49 25 45 / 0 10 40 40 GREAT BEND 32 51 26 45 / 0 10 40 40 SALINA 33 50 26 44 / 0 10 40 40 MCPHERSON 32 53 27 42 / 0 10 40 40 COFFEYVILLE 31 60 35 40 / 0 10 60 60 CHANUTE 32 60 31 41 / 0 10 50 60 IOLA 33 59 31 41 / 0 10 50 50 PARSONS-KPPF 31 60 33 40 / 0 10 60 60 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DDC LONG TERM...DDC AVIATION...DDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
228 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014 ...Update to long term... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014 The dense fog across at least one half of my eastern zones dissipated and moved east by late this morning. This fog and low ceilings slowed down the surface heating, and thus I lowered maximum temperatures in my eastern tier of zones for this afternoon, as I saw ICT did also. Winds have been increasing in the post-fog environment, especially in the west zones near the Colorado border. Under clear skies tonight and with winds subsiding to around 10 to 11 knots, the HRRR and RUC models develop some fog in about our eastern 1/3rd of our forecast areas tonight. After collaboration with ICT (here, in backup mode), I have decided to put patchy fog (not dense) in our eastern zones. I will brief the evening shift to pass on to the mid shift to monitor the fog, for any possible dense development. For now, the models are pointing further east than my Stafford to Barber eastern border for any dense fog potential. As for low temperatures, the steady southerly flow will keep minimum temperatures up from last night. Minimums should range from the middle 30s in the north and east sections, east of a line from Dighton to Coldwater, and only to the lower 40s in the Stanton County to Seward County. Friday will start mostly clear, but become mostly cloudy by early afternoon. There is an upper level trough approaching from the west, and for now looks like it will delay until the Fri Nt period as far as precip goes. A cold front will plunge south on Friday, switching morning southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph to north at 15 to 25 mph and gusty by early afternoon Friday. The clouds will follow the cold front and skies should become cloudy by early afternoon also. This will help hold down maximum temperatures. Friday should be colder than today for most locations, with highs ranging from around 50F in the Hays area, to the the lower to middle 60s in the southern Meade and Ashland areas. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014 A few forecast concerns that need to be addressed. The first was to tweak precipitation types Friday night. Both GFS and NAM are warmer with the thermo profile than compared to ECMWF. From a meteorological conceptual model, applied again the top down approach which suggests that precip will start as rain and then transition to snow by Saturday morning. Some drizzle is possible across the northern zones Friday evening for a brief period before the entire profile becomes completely saturated. Snowfall amounts look to be sub-advisory and in the 0.50-1.5" range. Right now GFS/NAM/WRF are starting to agree on an area south of the Arkansas river for seeing the best shot at accumulating snowfall. This in association with better isentropic lift. Anyway, if the EC verifies, than my maximums are too high for Saturday. This model is the outlier compared to the GFS/NAM/GEM, so will bias towards these other solutions for now versus the outlier. A very nice warm up is expected Sunday and particularly Monday. Here a downslope plume and low level warm air advection will lead to very nice temperatures with 60s/70sF. A cold front moves through Tuesday evening. Cold air advection lags a bit and the EC solution continues to be the outlier. Did not stray too much from the weighted blend solution for pops. Fixed precipitation type as it seems dubious to get snow with sfc temperatures in the 50s. Even the EC has model sfc temperatures in the upper 30sF so changed the snow ptype and made more of a rain/snow event for a buffer. Of course, synoptic and mesoscale details are very uncertain at this point but feel it is appropriate to have a blend of precipitation types rather than to commit to one precipitation type given the large uncertainty in the evolution and verification of the thermo profile and lift. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 The first 6 to 8 hours, flight conditions will be VFR. KHYS will quickly improve to p6sm on vsby by 20Z. Skies will clear and winds will increase into the breezy category. After sundown, winds will fall off fast and become southeast at around 09 to 10 kt. This could lead to some fog development, especially after 08z. How dense is the big question, and how far east will any fog develop. I decided to go with 3sm to tempo down to 1sm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 35 58 28 44 / 0 10 60 20 GCK 37 56 28 49 / 0 20 50 10 EHA 42 62 31 45 / 0 20 60 10 LBL 40 63 30 44 / 0 20 60 20 HYS 33 51 26 46 / 0 20 40 10 P28 33 60 29 43 / 0 10 60 50 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burke LONG TERM...Sugden AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1233 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014 ...Updated for the short term forecast... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014 The dense fog across at least one half of my eastern zones dissipated and moved east by late this morning. This fog and low ceilings slowed down the surface heating, and thus I lowered maximum temperatures in my eastern tier of zones for this afternoon, as I saw ICT did also. Winds have been increasing in the post-fog environment, especially in the west zones near the Colorado border. Under clear skies tonight and with winds subsiding to around 10 to 11 knots, the HRRR and RUC models develop some fog in about our eastern 1/3rd of our forecast areas tonight. After collaboration with ICT (here, in backup mode), I have decided to put patchy fog (not dense) in our eastern zones. I will brief the evening shift to pass on to the mid shift to monitor the fog, for any possible dense development. For now, the models are pointing further east than my Stafford to Barber eastern border for any dense fog potential. As for low temperatures, the steady southerly flow will keep minimum temperatures up from last night. Minimums should range from the middle 30s in the north and east sections, east of a line from Dighton to Coldwater, and only to the lower 40s in the Stanton County to Seward County. Friday will start mostly clear, but become mostly cloudy by early afternoon. There is an upper level trough approaching from the west, and for now looks like it will delay until the Fri Nt period as far as precip goes. A cold front will plunge south on Friday, switching morning southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph to north at 15 to 25 mph and gusty by early afternoon Friday. The clouds will follow the cold front and skies should become cloudy by early afternoon also. This will help hold down maximum temperatures. Friday should be colder than today for most locations, with highs ranging from around 50F in the Hays area, to the the lower to middle 60s in the southern Meade and Ashland areas. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 350 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 Two storm systems will impact the Central Plains providing precipitation opportunities across portions of the southwestern Kansas region. The first storm system will be during the Friday Night/Saturday time frame. We have cut back on the POPs for the Friday (day) period in favor of a slower evolving 500-700mb trough axis/zone of frontogenesis per the latest GFS/ECMWF. This event will most likely be entirely in the form of snow as the thermodynamic profile should fall entirely below zero prior to onset of accumulating precipitation. The rather positively tilted nature of the overall trough along with the translational speed of the trough will not support a heavy precipitation event. We are looking at an event supporting one to perhaps two inches of snow (maybe isolated higher amounts toward the Colorado border) which is in line with the ECMWF model. The next storm system will develop across the Rockies mid next week. While the synoptic and all-important subsynoptic aspects of the mid-week storm system are still rather unclear, the ECMWF and GFS models do point at the potential for a slightly higher impact event. Timing is also still a huge question as the GFS and ECMWF differ fairly significantly in the onset, duration, and ending of the mid-week storm. It looks like this storm will also be mostly in the form of snow as it stands now, with significant low level cold advection occurring before the important 700mb zone of frontogenesis moves across southwestern Kansas. In between these storms, Sunday and Monday look to be rather mild with mid level westerly downslope momentum prevailing. Allblend guidance of highs 62 Sunday and 71 Monday (Dodge City) look good enough and no change was necessary off the Allblend guidance. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 The first 6 to 8 hours, flight conditions will be VFR. KHYS will quickly improve to p6sm on vsby by 20Z. Skies will clear and winds will increase into the breezy category. After sundown, winds will fall off fast and become southeast at around 09 to 10 kt. This could lead to some fog development, especially after 08z. How dense is the big question, and how far east will any fog develop. I decided to go with 3sm to tempo down to 1sm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 35 58 27 41 / 0 10 50 40 GCK 37 56 27 47 / 0 20 40 40 EHA 42 62 30 46 / 0 20 50 50 LBL 40 63 29 43 / 0 20 50 50 HYS 33 51 26 43 / 0 20 40 30 P28 33 60 30 37 / 0 10 50 50 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burke LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1133 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2014 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 Latest low cloud enhanced satellite loop shows stratus slowly building northwest across north central Kansas along and just west of the ridge axis. Further east low clouds were breaking up and also reforming in spots. Areas where skies cleared temperatures dropped into the teens while near steady temperatures in the mid and upper 20s continued under the cloud cover. RAP soundings suggest that clouds will linger through mid afternoon out west while the 06Z NAM suggest around mid day. Expect clouds to slowly dissipate after 17Z with mostly sunny skies by 21Z. Increasing southerly winds and 850 mb temps warming into the 6 to 10C will see highs in the mid 40s far northeast to the lower 50s in north central Kansas. Also patchy fog will continue through mid morning and may become dense in a few areas. Warm advection continues through the night across the CWA with winds south to southwest. Shortwave trough moving across southern Canada and the Northern Plains will push a frontal boundary southeast. The front should extend from northeast Nebraska to a low over the Oklahoma Panhandle by 12Z Friday. Lows tonight will fall back into the lower 30s with partly cloudy skies in the north and mostly clear skies in the south half of the CWA. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 By Friday morning, a mid-level trough will be in place over the Northern Plains stretching toward the central Rockies. Models show this trough deepening a bit as it advances eastward toward the Central Plains Friday into Saturday. This deepening trough will help to push a cold front southward into the area Friday afternoon. Models seem to be trending a bit faster with bringing this cold front into far north central Kansas by around 18z Friday and having it progress southeast of the area by early to mid evening. With this timing of the frontal passage, expect southerly winds to prevail through much of the day across east central Kansas with a shift to the north behind the front across northern Kansas during the afternoon hours. As a result, could see a spread in high temperatures for Friday, ranging from the lower 50s near the Kansas/Nebraska border to the upper 50s and possibly even near 60 degrees over east central Kansas. Models show modest low to mid-level frontogenesis developing behind the front, so anticipate the development of some post-frontal precipitation. This light precipitation may start as early as late afternoon across far north central Kansas, but the better lift looks to move through during the evening and overnight hours. There are still model discrepancies with regards to how much QPF we can expect with this system. The ECMWF continues to bring the most QPF to the area while the GFS and NAM keep lower QPF amounts. There is also still some uncertainty with just how quickly this precipitation will exit southeast of the area, with the NAM being the fastest in having precipitation exit the area by 12z Saturday while the GFS/ECMWF/GEM keep some light precipitation lingering across east central Kansas through much of the day on Saturday. With this uncertainty in the timing and amount of precipitation over the area, have kept PoPs less than 50 percent Friday night into Saturday. As for precipitation type, with the mild temperatures during the day on Friday, precipitation will likely start off as rain with this system. Model soundings are in fairly good agreement in showing the temperature profiles in the low to mid-levels of the atmosphere cooling off as surface temperatures drop during the evening hours, so do not see a warm nose present in these soundings as temperatures drop below freezing. As a result, as temperatures cool into the mid/upper 20s by Saturday morning, expect any light precipitation to transition from rain over to snow. If a wintry mix were to occur, it should be very short-lived. With the frontogenetical forcing shifting east of the area by Saturday morning, any lingering precipitation during the day on Saturday looks to be supported by some isentropic lift within the 295k-310k layer. High temperatures for Saturday look to reach into the mid/upper 30s to low 40s, so could see precipitation transitioning from snow back over to rain during the late morning and afternoon hours with any lingering light precipitation. Precipitation amounts with this system look to be light, with snow accumulations likely around one inch or less. This mid-level trough will progress east of the area on Sunday with surface high pressure moving in behind this system Saturday night and progressing into the southeastern U.S. by Sunday. As a result, expect southwesterly surface flow on Sunday which will aid in decent waa and temperatures moderating back into the mid/upper 50s and possibly even low 60s across north central Kansas as models show a thermal ridge building in across western Kansas. Monday continues to look to be the warmest day in the forecast as the steady southwesterly flow further supports waa through the day. Have trended a few degrees warmer with highs in the mid/upper 60s and possibly even into the lower 70s over north central Kansas as that well-pronounced thermal ridge remains in place just west of the area. Models show another cold front tracking over the area sometime Monday night into Tuesday with some modest post-frontal lift present. GFS/ECMWF both pick up on the potential for some precipitation, especially across northern and far northeast Kansas Tuesday into Wednesday, however there is still a great deal of uncertainty with the timing and tracking of this system so only have slight to low-end chance PoPs in for that period. Expect a bit of a downward trend with temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with a northerly surface flow in place, resulting in highs dropping back into the 40s by Wednesday. While most of this precipitation looks to stay in the form of rain, low temperatures Tuesday night may drop into the low/mid 30s so cannot rule out a mix of rain/snow overnight into Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1127 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 Lack of strong mixing in the boundary layer has held on to the fog/stratus at KMHK through the afternoon as the IFR stratus gradually scatters out after 22Z. Edge of stratus deck should stay west of KTOP/KFOE through the afternoon period. Latest sounding profilers from short term guidance suggests another fog and/or status event to set up early Friday morning. Models vary on lowest visibility however the lighter winds at KMHK may result in IFR and LIFR conditions after 07Z. Left IFR stratus at KTOP/KFOE after 07Z as boundary layer remains more mixed. The stratus and fog should linger once again through at least mid morning Friday. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Bowen SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM...Hennecke AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TOPEKA KS
1048 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 1045 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 Made changes to the diurnal temperature trend for this afternoon as latest satellite observations show widespread fog lingering across north central and northeast Kansas. Latest obs at 10 AM indicate temperatures lingering in the upper 20s to mid 30s. RAP and HRRR profilers suggest as southerly winds increase after 12 PM, the fog should begin to lift. However, the cooler temps this morning have resulted in lowering high temperatures across the area, especially for north central Kansas. Overall readings range from the low 50s in east central Kansas, to the lower and middle 40s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 Latest low cloud enhanced satellite loop shows stratus slowly building northwest across north central Kansas along and just west of the ridge axis. Further east low clouds were breaking up and also reforming in spots. Areas where skies cleared temperatures dropped into the teens while near steady temperatures in the mid and upper 20s continued under the cloud cover. RAP soundings suggest that clouds will linger through mid afternoon out west while the 06Z NAM suggest around mid day. Expect clouds to slowly dissipate after 17Z with mostly sunny skies by 21Z. Increasing southerly winds and 850 mb temps warming into the 6 to 10C will see highs in the mid 40s far northeast to the lower 50s in north central Kansas. Also patchy fog will continue through mid morning and may become dense in a few areas. Warm advection continues through the night across the CWA with winds south to southwest. Shortwave trough moving across southern Canada and the Northern Plains will push a frontal boundary southeast. The front should extend from northeast Nebraska to a low over the Oklahoma Panhandle by 12Z Friday. Lows tonight will fall back into the lower 30s with partly cloudy skies in the north and mostly clear skies in the south half of the CWA. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 349 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 By Friday morning, a mid-level trough will be in place over the Northern Plains stretching toward the central Rockies. Models show this trough deepening a bit as it advances eastward toward the Central Plains Friday into Saturday. This deepening trough will help to push a cold front southward into the area Friday afternoon. Models seem to be trending a bit faster with bringing this cold front into far north central Kansas by around 18z Friday and having it progress southeast of the area by early to mid evening. With this timing of the frontal passage, expect southerly winds to prevail through much of the day across east central Kansas with a shift to the north behind the front across northern Kansas during the afternoon hours. As a result, could see a spread in high temperatures for Friday, ranging from the lower 50s near the Kansas/Nebraska border to the upper 50s and possibly even near 60 degrees over east central Kansas. Models show modest low to mid-level frontogenesis developing behind the front, so anticipate the development of some post-frontal precipitation. This light precipitation may start as early as late afternoon across far north central Kansas, but the better lift looks to move through during the evening and overnight hours. There are still model discrepancies with regards to how much QPF we can expect with this system. The ECMWF continues to bring the most QPF to the area while the GFS and NAM keep lower QPF amounts. There is also still some uncertainty with just how quickly this precipitation will exit southeast of the area, with the NAM being the fastest in having precipitation exit the area by 12z Saturday while the GFS/ECMWF/GEM keep some light precipitation lingering across east central Kansas through much of the day on Saturday. With this uncertainty in the timing and amount of precipitation over the area, have kept PoPs less than 50 percent Friday night into Saturday. As for precipitation type, with the mild temperatures during the day on Friday, precipitation will likely start off as rain with this system. Model soundings are in fairly good agreement in showing the temperature profiles in the low to mid-levels of the atmosphere cooling off as surface temperatures drop during the evening hours, so do not see a warm nose present in these soundings as temperatures drop below freezing. As a result, as temperatures cool into the mid/upper 20s by Saturday morning, expect any light precipitation to transition from rain over to snow. If a wintry mix were to occur, it should be very short-lived. With the frontogenetical forcing shifting east of the area by Saturday morning, any lingering precipitation during the day on Saturday looks to be supported by some isentropic lift within the 295k-310k layer. High temperatures for Saturday look to reach into the mid/upper 30s to low 40s, so could see precipitation transitioning from snow back over to rain during the late morning and afternoon hours with any lingering light precipitation. Precipitation amounts with this system look to be light, with snow accumulations likely around one inch or less. This mid-level trough will progress east of the area on Sunday with surface high pressure moving in behind this system Saturday night and progressing into the southeastern U.S. by Sunday. As a result, expect southwesterly surface flow on Sunday which will aid in decent waa and temperatures moderating back into the mid/upper 50s and possibly even low 60s across north central Kansas as models show a thermal ridge building in across western Kansas. Monday continues to look to be the warmest day in the forecast as the steady southwesterly flow further supports waa through the day. Have trended a few degrees warmer with highs in the mid/upper 60s and possibly even into the lower 70s over north central Kansas as that well-pronounced thermal ridge remains in place just west of the area. Models show another cold front tracking over the area sometime Monday night into Tuesday with some modest post-frontal lift present. GFS/ECMWF both pick up on the potential for some precipitation, especially across northern and far northeast Kansas Tuesday into Wednesday, however there is still a great deal of uncertainty with the timing and tracking of this system so only have slight to low-end chance PoPs in for that period. Expect a bit of a downward trend with temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with a northerly surface flow in place, resulting in highs dropping back into the 40s by Wednesday. While most of this precipitation looks to stay in the form of rain, low temperatures Tuesday night may drop into the low/mid 30s so cannot rule out a mix of rain/snow overnight into Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 540 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 Stratus is the main concern for the short term with the terminals this morning. LIFR stratus cigs lay just west of TOP and FOE, but are occurring at MHK. Latest trends on satellite show stratus moving off slowly west or holding west of TOP and FOE. IFR/MVFR vsbys will continue through 15Z with some LIFR vsbys possible. Forecast soundings from the RAP suggest that stratus will begin to breakup in the 15Z-18Z time frame, with VFR expected for the rest of the period. Calm winds will become southeast near 8 kts, then south after 14Z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Bowen SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM...Hennecke AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1140 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .AVIATION... UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME. DRY SLOT IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY KGPT NOT REPORTING LOW CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. MOST CEILINGS IN THE FL005-FL012 RANGE. PATCHES OF -RA/-DZ ARE REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS 1 TO 2 SM IN AREAS. BULK OF PRECIPITATION AND LOW VISIBILITIES SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD NEAR 00Z. MOST AREAS WILL HOLD ONTO IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR ANTICIPATED BY 15Z ON FRIDAY. 35 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/ SHORT TERM... A 1012MB SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WAS ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 200 MILES SE OF MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER LARGE DIVERGENCE STRUCTURE ALOFT. MEANWHILE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LOUISIANA MOVING EASTWARD WITH YET ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE BASE OF TROUGH OVER NE TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE LOCAL AREA WAS CURRENTLY IN A RELATIVE DRY SLOT BETWEEN SYSTEMS THAT SHOULD FILL DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS UNDER INCREASING DYNAMICS AND OMEGA BY 18Z. GFS TIME-HEIGHT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SHARP INFLUENCES FROM COLD POOL TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT BUT STILL MAINTAIN A PRECIPITATION LOADED WARMER PSEUDO PROFILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO PROVIDE SHOWERS INTERSPERSED WITHIN STRATIFORM RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND WRF 3KM LOCAL SCALE MODELS AGREE ON ONSET OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AROUND 18Z AS COLD POOL PASSES OVERHEAD FROM WEST-TO-EAST. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE HOURLY POPS WITH GENERALLY 20 PERCENT LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING INCREMENTING UPWARDS TO 70 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN WALKING DOWN AGAIN THIS EVENING. DESPITE DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT...SHOULD SEE SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR A SLOW OR STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND TODAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT TEMPS. AFTER THIS FEATURE WORKS OUT OF THE AREA TODAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF THIS WEEKEND SHOULD FEATURE A WARMING TREND UNDER ESSENTIALLY ZONAL FLOW OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. LONG TERM... AS HAS BEEN THE CASE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH SHORT WAVELENGTH NATURE OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GREATER DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE WHETHER TO SYNC THE FLOW OR MAINTAIN DISCONTINUOUS SPACING OF THE INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES BOTH IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES. THE ECMWF INDICATES A LARGE ANOMALY LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OVER WESTERN MEXICO VIA A REX BLOCK PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT THEN PROGRESSES EAST WHILE MAINTAINING CONNECTIVITY WITH NORTHERN BRANCH CYCLONE...WITH YET THE NEXT KICKER ON ITS HEALS IN THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THE SURFACE REFLECTION LOW REMAINS RATHER WEAKLY INDICATED PER ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE GFS SHOWS A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERN BRANCH CYCLONE ALOFT THAT INDUCES A 1006MB BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH CONNECTION TO THE LAGGING NORTHERN SYSTEM OVER TEXAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL THAT SAID...THE BULK OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL PROBABLY REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT CONSIDERATIONS OVER LAND AREAS FOR TUESDAY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF ANY GULF LOW THAT DOES FORM AND INTEGRITY OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY ROBUST BY EITHER MODEL`S SCENARIO. THE ECMWF MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE PROBLEMATIC FOR LAND AREAS GIVEN COLD POOL PASSAGE THAT MAY DESTABILIZE COLUMN FOR SOME SMALL HAIL CONSIDERATIONS. AT THIS TIME...LEANING TOWARDS GFS BUT STILL RESERVING SOME CAUTIOUS CONFIDENCE ON ANY EXPECTED OUTCOMES. NEXT BIG DIFFERENCE COMES ON ENSUING SYSTEM. BOTH SHOW CONSIDERABLE COOLING FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER FREEZE OR AT LEAST KILLING FROST SITUATION FROM THE 14TH. GIVEN THE TENDENCIES OF THIS COLD WINTER...WOULD NOT THINK TOO FAR-FETCHED DESPITE THE LATENESS OF SUCH COLD AIR. IT WOULD BE RARE IN THAT THE LAST TIME...AND IN SOME CASES THE ONLY TIME... THIS DATE SAW BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WAS MARCH 14TH 1993 WHEN MOST OF THE DAILY RECORDS WERE SET ACROSS THE AREA THAT DAY. 24/RR AVIATION... MOST TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VFR CEILINGS BUT THEY ARE RIGHT AT 3000 FEET. A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS SHOULD BRING LOWER CLOUDS BACK TO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SHOWERS. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MVFR DECKS AND -RA. NOT THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SO JUST GOING WITH SHRA. EXPECT NW WINDS TO INCREASE FROM KHUM TO MSY/NEW AND ASD THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES FROM DEEPENING SFC LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT BUT LOW CLOUDS LIKELY STILL STICKING AROUND. MARINE... MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE NOW THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA HAS TIGHTENED AND CAUSED WINDS TO INCREASE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN HALF HAS CAUSED EVEN MORE ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS. IT SEEMS TO MAKE MORE SENSE TO ISSUE A LONG TERM SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HANDLE THE 20-25 KNOT WINDS RATHER THAN A 3 HR LONG SCA SINCE THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED WINDS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE MOST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GULF. THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY FADE FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEND TO A WEAK WIND FIELD AND LITTLE SEA/WAVE ACTION. DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 53 39 60 43 / 80 20 10 10 BTR 56 39 60 43 / 70 10 10 10 ASD 64 42 58 44 / 60 30 10 10 MSY 61 45 57 47 / 40 20 10 10 GPT 62 44 58 47 / 70 40 10 10 PQL 61 41 60 42 / 70 50 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1201 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014 UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && UPDATE ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING. WAVE THAT BROUGHT A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP TO THE BORDERLANDS OVERNIGHT AS DEPICTED ON SATELLITE AND REGIONAL AND CANADIAN RADARS SHOW IT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WE ARE LEFT WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM WHERE IT IS NOW IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SO...HAVE REDUCED POPS AND REDUCED MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP COVERAGE AND TYPE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WE FOLLOWED A BLEND...BUT LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF THAN THE GFS. RADAR SHOWED ECHOES OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT KINL/KCDD AT TIMES. MORE RETURNS WERE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA REVEAL SOME FREEZING RAIN/MIXED PRECIP. WE CONFINED MENTION OF PRECIP TO OUR NORTHERN MINNESOTA ZONES FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RES MODELS. A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE SNOW/FREEZING PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY. STRATUS CLOUDS WERE SURGING NORTH THIS MORNING AND THE RAP SHOWS THEY SHOULD COVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY AND WE HAVE HIGHS FROM THE MID TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH AS WELL. WE HAVE A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE HAVING HIGHEST POPS OVER THE FAR NORTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...AND SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL FAR SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE COOLER ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT MORE OF A MIX. AT THIS TIME...WE CONTINUED A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE BORDERLAND SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW. COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CONSIDER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DIP TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID TWENTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT/LOW MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID TWENTIES TOWARD INTERNATIONAL FALLS...AND THE MID THIRTIES OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 A VERY ACTIVE NRN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE FORECAST CHALLENGING FOR SEVERAL REASONS. CONFIDENCE WILL BE HIGHEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS INITIAL MID LVL TROF MOVES EAST. A RELATIVELY QUIET AND COLD SATURDAY IS EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MDLS AGREE THAT AT MID LVLS A SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL RESIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES SRN ALBERTA WITH A BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT FROM ALBERTA INTO THE LOWER GT LAKES. ITS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE MDLS SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL SFC LOWS WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE SE. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIBBONS MAKES THE FCST TEMPS/PTYPES/POPS LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR IS PULLED INTO THE CWA UNDER THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN THAT ZL AND PERHAPS EVEN RAIN MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER SRN CWA WHERE BDRY LYR WARMING HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. THIS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SUNDAY BUT WILL LEAVE SNOW IN FCST FOR NOW. EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY MONDAY AS MAX TEMPS IN SRN CWA MAY BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER IF LATEST EC/GEM ARE CORRECT. WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIP FOCUSED OVER THE NRN TIER OF MN ZONES CLOSER TO POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW. MDLS AGREE THAT TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO COLDER AIR WITH MAX TEMPS LOWERING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM MONDAYS VALUES. GFS/EC AGREE THAT A MID LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS MIDWEEK. HOWEVER THE RESULTING DOWNSTREAM TROFS ARE NOT IN SYNC WHICH PROMOTES AN INCREASING DIFFERENCE IN PLACEMENT OF LOW LVL THERMAL TROUGH. GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN EC AT THIS POINT..ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD TO CLIMO OR BELOW CLIMO AFTER THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF EARLY WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014 THE NORTHLAND IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS OF MIDDAY..WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH HAVING MOVED EAST OF KINL/KHIB. NEXT APPROACHING WAVE IS RESULTING IN PRESSURE FALLS AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT..WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30KT AT TIMES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. VSBY REDUCTION AT KBRD IS LIKELY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN SOME FORM THRU THIS AFTERNOON. APPROACHING WAVE AND CONTINUED SUSTAINED ASCENT SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS THIS EVENING..WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY KINL AND KHIB. FARTHER SOUTH..LIGHT FZDZ/SN IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGT/FRI MORNING UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NW BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS..LATEST AT KHYR..ALONG WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR RANGE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 29 23 31 4 / 20 50 20 10 INL 30 19 25 -5 / 60 80 20 10 BRD 33 25 29 -1 / 10 20 10 0 HYR 34 23 35 6 / 10 40 30 10 ASX 33 23 35 9 / 10 50 30 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LE SHORT TERM...MELDE LONG TERM...CANNON AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1110 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING. WAVE THAT BROUGHT A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP TO THE BORDERLANDS OVERNIGHT AS DEPICTED ON SATELLITE AND REGIONAL AND CANADIAN RADARS SHOW IT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. WE ARE LEFT WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM WHERE IT IS NOW IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SO...HAVE REDUCED POPS AND REDUCED MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP COVERAGE AND TYPE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WE FOLLOWED A BLEND...BUT LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF THAN THE GFS. RADAR SHOWED ECHOES OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT KINL/KCDD AT TIMES. MORE RETURNS WERE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA REVEAL SOME FREEZING RAIN/MIXED PRECIP. WE CONFINED MENTION OF PRECIP TO OUR NORTHERN MINNESOTA ZONES FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HIGH RES MODELS. A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE SNOW/FREEZING PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY. STRATUS CLOUDS WERE SURGING NORTH THIS MORNING AND THE RAP SHOWS THEY SHOULD COVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY AND WE HAVE HIGHS FROM THE MID TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH AS WELL. WE HAVE A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE HAVING HIGHEST POPS OVER THE FAR NORTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...AND SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL FAR SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT THE COOLER ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT MORE OF A MIX. AT THIS TIME...WE CONTINUED A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE BORDERLAND SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW. COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO NOT WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CONSIDER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DIP TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID TWENTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT/LOW MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID TWENTIES TOWARD INTERNATIONAL FALLS...AND THE MID THIRTIES OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 A VERY ACTIVE NRN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE THE FORECAST CHALLENGING FOR SEVERAL REASONS. CONFIDENCE WILL BE HIGHEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS INITIAL MID LVL TROF MOVES EAST. A RELATIVELY QUIET AND COLD SATURDAY IS EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MDLS AGREE THAT AT MID LVLS A SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL RESIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES SRN ALBERTA WITH A BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT FROM ALBERTA INTO THE LOWER GT LAKES. ITS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE MDLS SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL SFC LOWS WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE SE. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIBBONS MAKES THE FCST TEMPS/PTYPES/POPS LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR IS PULLED INTO THE CWA UNDER THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN THAT ZL AND PERHAPS EVEN RAIN MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER SRN CWA WHERE BDRY LYR WARMING HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. THIS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SUNDAY BUT WILL LEAVE SNOW IN FCST FOR NOW. EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY MONDAY AS MAX TEMPS IN SRN CWA MAY BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER IF LATEST EC/GEM ARE CORRECT. WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIP FOCUSED OVER THE NRN TIER OF MN ZONES CLOSER TO POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW. MDLS AGREE THAT TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO COLDER AIR WITH MAX TEMPS LOWERING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM MONDAYS VALUES. GFS/EC AGREE THAT A MID LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS MIDWEEK. HOWEVER THE RESULTING DOWNSTREAM TROFS ARE NOT IN SYNC WHICH PROMOTES AN INCREASING DIFFERENCE IN PLACEMENT OF LOW LVL THERMAL TROUGH. GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN EC AT THIS POINT..ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD TO CLIMO OR BELOW CLIMO AFTER THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF EARLY WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 1218 AM CST THUR MAR 6 2014 A LARGE AREA OF MVFR STRATUS IS ADVECTING NORTH INTO CWA. ISOLATED FLURRIES MAY OCCUR OVER THE SRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS MAJORITY OF PRECIP IS CONFINED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. FRONTAL BDRY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CHC OF FZDZ/SN. SHOULD HAVE IFR AT MOST SITES AS CEILINGS LOWER NEAR FRNTL BDRY ..EXCEPT KHYR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 29 23 31 4 / 20 50 20 10 INL 30 19 25 -5 / 60 80 20 10 BRD 33 25 29 -1 / 10 20 10 0 HYR 34 23 35 6 / 10 40 30 10 ASX 33 23 35 9 / 10 50 30 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LE SHORT TERM...MELDE LONG TERM...CANNON AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
1003 AM MST THU MAR 6 2014 .UPDATE... WINDS FINALLY COMING DOWN AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS. STRONG GUSTS ON THE THE ORDER OF 60 MPH OBSERVED AT TIMBERCREST RAWS AND 50 MPH AT BURGESS JCT INDICATIVE OF SOME PREFRONTAL DOWNSLOPE/MTN WAVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE FOOTHILLS FROM NOW TIL ABOUT MID AFTERNOON. RAP SOUNDING AT SHERIDAN SUGGESTS 45+ KTS BISECTING THE CREST OF THE BIG HORNS...SO BELIEVE SOME HIGHER GUSTS MAY TRANSLATE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BIG HORNS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS AND TAFS...AND ADVERTISED THIS BRIEF WIND THREAT THRU SOCIAL MEDIA. PACIFIC FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER THE MTNS. TIMING IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO HAVE RAISED LOWER ELEVATION POPS TO LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND THIS WILL HELP TO OFFSET THE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING IN PLACE. BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR NE WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS TO REACH OUR CWA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE BIGGEST IMPACT IS LOCAL LOW LAND OR URBAN FLOODING RESULTING FROM LOWER ELEVATION SNOW MELT AND ICE JAMS. PROBLEMS NOTED AT LIVINGSTON...MILES CITY AND ALONG PRYOR CREEK. JKL && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG IN THE GAP FLOW AREAS THIS MORNING AND AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOWMELT COULD BRING ADDITION FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS...WINDS HAVE BEEN HITTING ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT IN THE GAP FLOW AREAS AT BOTH LIVINGSTON AND NYE. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING WAS CREATING A SUFFICIENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE THE WINDS. MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS ARE STABLE WITH 700 MB WIND SPEEDS AT 60 KTS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. WILL KEEP CURRENT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION...STRONG DISTURBANCE WITH AMPLE PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THIS MORNING TO OUR NORTH AND ALSO OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE STRONGEST LIFT INTO YELLOWSTONE PARK BUT THE MOUNTAINS AROUND COOKE CITY SHOULD SEE 10 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING. DID INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE PLAINS WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING AND NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. COOLED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL COOLER AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S FROM BILLINGS WEST WITH 30S AND 20S EAST. HYDRO...PARK COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE IS STILL REPORTING MINOR FLOODING STILL OCCURRING IN LIVINGSTON AND THE PARADISE VALLEY. RAPID SNOWMELT IS CAUSING LOCAL AREA ROADS TO FLOOD. THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER IN LIVINGSTON IS WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PROBLEMS WITH THE SNOWMELT. WILL KEEP FLOOD ADVISORY GOING TODAY AS WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. RICHMOND .LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED... EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER SOMEWHAT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. READINGS WILL WARM INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING THE STRONGEST PORTIONS OF THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF OUR AREA INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN ANY CASE...IT STILL WARRANTS A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY BUT COOL TO SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOOLEY && .AVIATION... MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR VIS AND CIGS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH FROPA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH GUST OF 30 TO 40 KNOT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND KSHR. AAG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 051 026/041 026/051 033/058 037/052 029/047 026/043 6/W 33/W 10/U 01/N 14/W 22/W 22/W LVM 052 028/044 025/049 034/057 036/052 026/045 020/044 7/W 43/W 20/N 02/W 24/W 22/W 22/W HDN 052 024/039 023/050 028/058 034/055 029/049 027/045 6/W 43/W 10/U 00/B 13/W 22/W 22/W MLS 045 017/029 020/046 030/054 035/051 030/047 028/044 7/W 23/J 10/U 00/B 12/W 12/W 22/W 4BQ 049 022/034 023/048 029/058 035/055 029/048 026/044 4/W 44/J 10/U 00/B 13/W 32/W 22/W BHK 046 013/025 016/041 028/053 032/048 026/042 024/040 4/W 22/J 10/B 00/B 12/W 21/B 12/W SHR 056 027/042 023/052 027/061 032/055 027/046 022/045 3/W 43/W 20/U 01/B 12/W 43/W 22/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
110 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FURTHER EAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SSWD INTO EASTERN TX. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA AND NRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A SECOND LOW NOTED OFF THE COAST OF OREGON. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH OVERCAST CONDS EXTENDING FROM MONTANA EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS STREAMED INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GARDEN CITY KS...TO CONCORDIA KS...TO NORFOLK NEBRASKA. THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTH NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOLNS...THIS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. EAST OF THIS FEATURE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT...WHICH HAS LED TO A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. 2 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 23 AT BROKEN BOW...TO 35 DEGREES AT VALENTINE && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 TEMPERATURES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR TODAY...SURFACE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 10C TO 12C...HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST ARE ON TRACK. THE ONE THING WHICH MAY BUST THE FORECAST IS THE PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDINESS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS HIGH CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. EVEN WITH THE LIMITED CLOUD COVER...DECENT MIXING SHOULD TRUMP ANY EFFECTS OF CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...INCREASED HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE AND UTILIZED MIXED H85 TEMPS FOR HIGHS TDY. FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NRN MINNESOTA...FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. LIFT WILL BE DECENT WITH THE FROPA...HOWEVER WITH THE MID LAYERS BEING FAIRLY DRY...DECIDED TO LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AS A SECOND...STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD TONIGHT...THANKS TO ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR SNOW TO THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AGAIN...QPF`S WILL BE LIGHT AS TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PCPN TO REACH THE SURFACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE FAR NORTH...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH A COLDER ARCTIC FRONT TO FOLLOW MIDDAY. SOUNDINGS ARE DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH TOP DOWN SATURATION NEEDED FOR PRECIP TO HIT THE GROUND. TEMPS IN THE MORNING FOR THE MOST PART NEAR OR ABOVE THE FREEZING...AND TEMPS JUST OFF THE SFC SHOULD BE ABOVE ZERO...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO START OUT AS RAIN...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON...FROM N TO S. AS FOR HIGHS...LOOKING LIKE EARLY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...MAYBE EARLY MORNING HIGHS NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER. AS FOR PRECIP TOTALS...WITH THE TOP DOWN SATURATION...AM CONCERNED MODELS MAYBE OVER DOWN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VARIES AS BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE ABLE TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT...THE LOWER LEVELS DRY QUICKLY. RADAR RETURNS ARE LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THE LIGHTER RETURNS MAY NOT BE REACHING THE GROUND. OVERALL COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS...AND SNOWFALL TOTALS OF LESS THAN AN INCH. SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A COOL MARCH DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE SE WITH RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPS SURGE BACK TO 10C TO 15C. GFS EVEN WARMS SW NEB TO NEAR 17C AT 850 MB. GUIDANCE INTO THE 60S AND A FEW TAP 70...AND SEE NO REASON TO GO AGAINST THIS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH MOST AREAS LESS THAN A 5 DEGREE SPREAD FOR HIGHS. MORE UNCERTAIN DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY. NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS ACROSS NW NEB TO THE LOWER 60S...WHILE ANOTHER MID TO UPPER 60S /AND POSSIBLY 70/ AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WARM TEMPS WILL PROMOTE P TYPE AS RAIN AS LOWS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS NRN ZONES COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ALTHOUGH AFTER 2 DAYS IN THE 60S...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT FROM ANY OF THE SNOW. COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 101 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014 HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...WHEN A SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. GENERALLY EXPECTING A RAIN SNOW MIX WITHIN THE BAND...BUT A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE. VFR SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CLB SHORT TERM...CLB LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1142 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 CHALLENGES ABOUND THIS MORNING WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND A HODGEPODGE OF HEADLINES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT... BUT WILL FOLLOW THE RAP FOR DETAILS IN THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THUS IMPACTING P-TYPE AT THE SURFACE. EARLY THIS MORNING...A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL ND IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS ESTEVAN SASKATCHEWAN AND PURE RAIN FROM CROSBY TO WILLISTON...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAP 0 C ISOTHERM AT 850 HPA STRADDLES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THINK FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT P-TYPE. COULD STILL SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. FOR THESE REASONS...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND REPLACED IT WITH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 18 UTC. WILL TRIM WESTERN COUNTIES AT 15 UTC. EXPECT SPOTTY ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS...BUT EVEN A THIN GLAZE CAN CREATE SLICK CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. FOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT UNTIL 18 UTC FOR A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN MIX SINCE WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE DELAYED AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION AROUND THE NOON HOUR...ANOTHER BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY 850 HPA THERMAL GRADIENT. P-TYPE WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LANGDON TO PEMBINA TO BEMIDJI. WILL LIKELY NEED TO COVER THIS SCENARIO WITH ANOTHER ADVISORY...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THIS MORNING/S MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST ND. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...COLDER AIR WILL BE DELAYED SO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS SEEM REASONABLE. 1028 TO 1030 HPA SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SOLAR AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MN AND IA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FROM THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...BUT DIFFER IN MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION WITH THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT. FOR EXAMPLE...ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IS WELL EAST OF THE GFS...AND INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...WHILE THE GFS INDICATES MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THE PREFERENCE FROM THE PMDEPD IS TOWARD THE ECMWF...WHICH THE ALLBLEND (CURRENT MODEL BLEND...BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST) MORE OR LESS DEPICTS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL MAKE PRECIP CHANCES DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT CHANCES DO EXIST (JUST NOT SURE WHERE OR WHEN). && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUBSIDE FOR A TIME NEAR THE SFC TROUGH BEFORE BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS AGAIN OVER 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT FALLING CEILINGS NEAR AND BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE...WITH SOME REDUCED VSBYS WITH BR/BLOWING OR DRIFTING SNOW. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY FROM DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. KEPT AS LIGHT SNOW...BUT SOME MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE INITIALLY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS KFAR...SO KEPT PRECIP MENTION OUT THERE. A BIT OF BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DK SHORT TERM...ROGERS LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
340 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERN STORM MAY GRAZE THE VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SYSTEM MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY COLD AIR. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... NOT REALLY A LOT OF CHANGE WITH REGARD TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN A GENERAL SENSE...WITH REGARD TO THE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST INFO FROM 12Z NWP RUNS. STILL APPEARS THAT THE FORECAST AREA ONLY GETS A GLANCING BRUSH WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FIRST...REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES. THE CONSENSUS HAS BEEN A LEAN TOWARDS THE OP GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM THE OUTLIER AND FURTHEST WEST. EVEN THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST WITH AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 12Z FRI...AND ONLY BRUSHES OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 280K-290K SFC/S ALL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA OVER CENTRAL VA AND POINTS FURTHER SE. ALSO APPEARS THAT MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS MAIN DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOC WITH 850MB AND 700MB LOWS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. ALL THIS TO SAY...NOT FINDING ANY REAL DECENT SOURCES OF DYNAMIC AND/OR SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE CWA. CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM QPF OUTPUT IS IN SUPPORT...KEEPING MEASURABLE QPF JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA. OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS ALSO KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY. LATEST HRRR RUNS BRING SOME PRECIP RIGHT UP TO THE WYOMING/MCDOWELL COUNTY AREAS OF WEST VIRGINIA. SO...IN THE END...NO REAL DRASTIC CHANGES WITH POPS ALONG OUR SE BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FRIDAY TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH I DID ALLOW LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE BKW AREA WHICH IS A BIT OF AN INCREASE FROM PREV SHIFT. INHERITED MINS FROM PREV SHIFT STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. STILL EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY SLEET TO BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOR THE WEST VIRGINIA ZONES ROUGHLY MCDOWELL COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. THE VIRGINIA COUNTIES MAY REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. EVEN WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIP TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW...A HEAVY FREEZING MIST IS POSSIBLE ON AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE SFC FLOW WHICH COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN A GLAZE. WILL LEAVE FREEZING MIST/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WORDING IN HWO BUT HAVE ELECTED TO NOT HOIST ANY HIGHLIGHTS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS SEEING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES AT 18Z AND ENDED BY 21Z AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTH WITH DEPARTING SFC LOW OFF TO THE EAST...WHICH SCOURS OUT ANY REMAINING LLVL MOISTURE. TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S STILL ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FROM PREV FCST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WITH THE REGION BETWEEN SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH WEAK WINDS...SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATION NIGHT. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOWS. A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NAM IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF. WILL LAG SOME VERY SMALL POPS BEHIND THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NAM. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RE-AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD...WITH RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE U.S. AND CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND DEEPENING L/W TROUGH IN THE E. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE THIS PERIOD IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH MID STREAM ENERGY AS S/W TROUGHS IN THE NRN AND MID STREAMS MOVE SEWD IN CONCERT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT. THE GFS SHOWS A POSITIVE TILT MID STREAM TROUGH THAT THE NRN STREAM BASICALLY FALLS INTO...GENERATING A FLAT WAVE AT THE SFC. THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO ITS LARGE SYSTEM SOLN...AS THE MID STREAM S/W CLOSES OFF...GENERATING MORE VIGOROUS CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SFC. THE GFS FLAT WAVE SOLN WOULD ENTAIL A SFC LOW TRACK FASTER AND FARTHER S AND E...ALLOWING THE COLD AIR TO POUR SWD INTO THE AREA WED WITH ANAFRONT PRECIPITATION. THE SLOWER...DEEPER AND FARTHER N AND W TRACK OF THE ECMWFHIRES SFC LOW WOULD PUMP WARM AIR INTO THE AREA TUE NT INTO WED...BEFORE TRACKING RIGHT OVER THE AREA WED AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR WOULD THEN POUR SEWD INTO THE AREA WED WEDNESDAY NT...AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD PULLS OUT. DRIER...COLDER AIR THEN CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK IN EITHER CASE. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS AND WPC...A LITTLE BIAS CORRECTED ECMWFHIRES ALSO BLENDED IN. THE FCST FOLLOWS WPC COMPROMISE...WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY RAIN INCREASING WED NT AND CONTINUING THU...FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCE FOR SHOW SHOWERS THU8 NT INTO FRI. LASTLY...MON AND TUE LOOK DRY AND MILD AHEAD OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE BKW TERMINAL. PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH LLVL MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE LOW STRATUS TO FORM IN THESE AREAS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXACTLY HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL BE AT BKW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL INCLUDE LOW MVFR WITH A SCT IFR CIG FOR NOW...AS IFR CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE HERE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS REACHING INTO DICKENSON COUNTY VIRGINIA ON NE ALONG THE VA/WV BORDER WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ALONG EASTERN SLOPES. EVEN WHERE PRECIP IS NOT MEASURED...COLD AIR WITH NEAR-SATURATED LLVLS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY RESULT IN SOME FREEZING MIST. THE BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE BY THE 15Z TIME FRAME...WITH PERHAPS MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT TO MID-RANGE MVFR CIGS BTWN 15Z-18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT COULD VARY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING BKW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
242 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN COAST WITH DEVELOPING STORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WESTERN FRINGE OF STORM ALONG VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... NOT REALLY A LOT OF CHANGE WITH REGARD TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN A GENERAL SENSE...WITH REGARD TO THE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST INFO FROM 12Z NWP RUNS. STILL APPEARS THAT THE FORECAST AREA ONLY GETS A GLANCING BRUSH WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FIRST...REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES. THE CONSENSUS HAS BEEN A LEAN TOWARDS THE OP GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM THE OUTLIER AND FURTHEST WEST. EVEN THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST WITH AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 12Z FRI...AND ONLY BRUSHES OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 280K-290K SFC/S ALL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA OVER CENTRAL VA AND POINTS FURTHER SE. ALSO APPEARS THAT MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS MAIN DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOC WITH 850MB AND 700MB LOWS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. ALL THIS TO SAY...NOT FINDING ANY REAL DECENT SOURCES OF DYNAMIC AND/OR SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE CWA. CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM QPF OUTPUT IS IN SUPPORT...KEEPING MEASURABLE QPF JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA. OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS ALSO KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY. LATEST HRRR RUNS BRING SOME PRECIP RIGHT UP TO THE WYOMING/MCDOWELL COUNTY AREAS OF WEST VIRGINIA. SO...IN THE END...NO REAL DRASTIC CHANGES WITH POPS ALONG OUR SE BORDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FRIDAY TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH I DID ALLOW LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE BKW AREA WHICH IS A BIT OF AN INCREASE FROM PREV SHIFT. INHERITED MINS FROM PREV SHIFT STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. STILL EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY SLEET TO BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOR THE WEST VIRGINIA ZONES ROUGHLY MCDOWELL COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. THE VIRGINIA COUNTIES MAY REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. EVEN WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIP TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW...A HEAVY FREEZING MIST IS POSSIBLE ON AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE SFC FLOW WHICH COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN A GLAZE. WILL LEAVE FREEZING MIST/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WORDING IN HWO BUT HAVE ELECTED TO NOT HOIST ANY HIGHLIGHTS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS SEEING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES AT 18Z AND ENDED BY 21Z AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTH WITH DEPARTING SFC LOW OFF TO THE EAST...WHICH SCOURS OUT ANY REMAINING LLVL MOISTURE. TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S STILL ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FROM PREV FCST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EAST COAST STORM APPROACHING CAPE HATTERAS AND THE MOVING OUT TO SEA FRIDAY...AND HAVE PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADS TO A COOL FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN INCREASING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM SATURDAY...WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 00Z NAM TRIES TO SHOW A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN CROSSING CWA...AND EVEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO SHOW AN AREA OF HIGHER QPF CROSSING THE NORTHERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...SO DID UP POPS A TOUCH ACROSS THE NORTH. PRECIP LINGERS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES. INITIALLY ON SATURDAY PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...WITH A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN...BUT MOISTURE ALREADY MOVING OUT AT THAT POINT TOO. DID INCLUDE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UNDER AN INCH...IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW REMAINING FRIDAY MORNING...AND CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVING OUT THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASED HIGHS IN THE EASTERN LOWLANDS BY BLENDING IN THE WARMER MAV. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING SATURDAY...BUT ALSO WARM SE FLOW IN PLACE. MAV/MET FAIRLY CLOSE SO USED A BIAS-CORRECTED MOS BLEND. COOLER SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED. NRN STREAM DOMINATES WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT AS L/W TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS A HIGH HEIGHT WNW FLOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NRN STREAM...SO TEMPERATURES STAY CLOSE TO NORMAL...EVEN ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. NONETHELESS...THE NRN STREAM IS SHOWN TO BE MORE DOMINANT COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...THE UPPER FLOW MORE NW THAN WNW...SHUNTING ANY SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURES TO THE S. THE GFS SHOWS A DRY...NRN STREAM COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...NOW MON RATHER THAN TUE...THE OTHER MODELS LACK THIS FEATURE. BIGGER QUESTION IN THE EXTENDED COMES NEAR THE END...WHEN THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN...WITH STRONG RIDGING IN THE W AND TROUGHING IN THE E. THE ECMWF SHOWS A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM DAY 7...IT HAS GONE FROM A SNOWSTORM TO A WARM TO COLD SYSTEM WHICH COULD STILL CREATE WINTRY ISSUES AT THE END. THE GFS AMPLIFIES A SFC FEATURE ONLY IN TIME FOR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ON TEMPERATURES...STAYING CLOSE TO WPC VIA BLENDING IN SOME OF IT...ALONG WITH CONSENSUS DATA. THE DAY 7 FCST IS A COMPROMISE. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE BKW TERMINAL. PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH LLVL MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE LOW STRATUS TO FORM IN THESE AREAS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXACTLY HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL BE AT BKW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL INCLUDE LOW MVFR WITH A SCT IFR CIG FOR NOW...AS IFR CIGS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE HERE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS REACHING INTO DICKENSON COUNTY VIRGINIA ON NE ALONG THE VA/WV BORDER WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ALONG EASTERN SLOPES. EVEN WHERE PRECIP IS NOT MEASURED...COLD AIR WITH NEAR-SATURATED LLVLS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY RESULT IN SOME FREEZING MIST. THE BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE BY THE 15Z TIME FRAME...WITH PERHAPS MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT TO MID-RANGE MVFR CIGS BTWN 15Z-18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT COULD VARY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING BKW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
913 AM PST THU MAR 6 2014 .DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE COMPOSITE SHOWS TWO LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS ORIENTATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE SECOND FROM GOLD BEACH THROUGH CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE SECOND LINE HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES MOSTLY AROUND CAPE BLANCO AND NORTHERN CURRY COUNTY. THE HRRR 3KM MAX REFLECTIVITY PICKS UP ON THIS SECOND FEATURE WELL AND IT SHOWS IT MOVING SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND MOVING INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ESPECIALLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD. MEANWHILE SNOW LEVELS ARE COMING DOWN AND IT`S ACCUMULATING AROUND DIAMOND AND CRATER LAKE AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR TODAY, OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN THAT I`M NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO TRIM THEM BACK. WITH THAT SAID, MOST HOURS AND LOCATIONS WILL HAVE INSTABILITY SHOWERS, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. WE`LL CATCH A BREAK IN THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MOST OF SATURDAY BEFORE WET CONDITIONS RETURN. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH THE MODELS ON THE SATURDAY SYSTEM AND WE`LL LOOK AT THIS IN MORE DETAIL. -PETRUCELLI && .AVIATION...BASED ON THE 06/12Z TAF CYCLE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 35KT WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST, OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE EAST SIDE TODAY. WINDS WON`T BE AS STRONG IN THE VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT COULD STILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW AND A TROUGH SHIFTING THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ALSO EVEN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS, LOWEST IN SHOWERS. TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE NEAR TOTAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END THIS EVENING...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST LATER TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR ELSEWHERE. SPILDE && .MARINE...GALES WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING, BUT WILL SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. VERY STEEP, CHAOTIC SEAS WILL TRANSITION TO LONG PERIOD SWELL THIS AFTERNOON...PEAKING AT 15 TO 20 FEET BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 10 FEET BY FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT A STRONG FRONT WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SPILDE && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM PST THU MAR 6 2014/ DISCUSSION...A FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INLAND BRINGING A COLD AND SHOWERY REGIME TO THE AREA TODAY. MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES. INSTABILITY WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EARLY THIS MORNING, LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO TO FLORENCE. MODELS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THESE AREAS TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ALL INLAND AREAS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE COLD AIR MASS MOVING OVERHEAD HAS ALSO ALLOWED SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO AROUND 5500 TO 6000 FEET AND EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER FURTHER DOWN TO 4500 TO 5000 FEET IN SHOWERS TODAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES BY MID MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW TO LOCATIONS ABOVE 5000 FT. GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES TO BRING REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. DUE TO THE IMPACTS FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW, HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES ABOVE 5000 FEET. BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SHOWERS TODAY. ADVISORY TO WARNING LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN EAST SIDE LOCATIONS, MAINLY IN THE WARNER MOUNTAINS AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS OUT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OF NOTE IS THAT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST BELOW HIGH WINDS CRITERIA FOR THE WARNERS AND SUMMER LAKE AREA. HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE 700 MB 50 KT JET ALOFT, DECIDED TO KEEP A WARNING FOR HIGH WINDS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SURROUNDING HIGH TERRAIN IN EASTERN KLAMATH, LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KT TODAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER STRONG FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST LATE SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH AND BRING THE FRONT INTO THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND INLAND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH, ABOVE 8000 FEET, AND WILL LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO 4500 TO 6000 FT AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. CC && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR FOR ORZ027-028. CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ356-376. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1152 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 THE FIRST QUESTION AS FAR AS IMPORTANT WEATHER IS WHETHER OR NOT WE NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THE BLOWING SNOW IN SOUTHWEST MN BACK TO BROOKINGS SD...WHERE THE BEST SNOW FELL AND WHERE THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. WEBCAMS AND REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATE FEW VISIBILITY PROBLEMS BEING REPORTED THOUGH SNOW IS BLOWING OVER ROADS. THE SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NEARING THEIR PEAK BUT PROBABLY WILL NOT GET THERE UNTIL A BIT AFTER DAYBREAK. BELIEVE MENTION IN THE FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH AS WE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE THREATENING WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS. THE WINDS THEMSELVES ARE GENERALLY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...SOME WINDS NUDGING INTO THE BOTTOM OF THAT ZONES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE BUT FEEL THIS IS NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH AREA WINDS TO WARRANT A HIGHLIGHT FOR THAT. WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG OUTSIDE THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA...AND WINDS SHOULD SHOW A SLOW DECREASE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER QUESTION RELATES TO CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS NOT REALLY MUCH OF A PROBLEM ASIDE FROM THE FINE DETAILS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE EASTERN CWA STRATUS DECK. THIS IS JUST ABOUT WHAT WE EXPECTED A DAY AGO FOR THIS TIME. A COMBINATION OF HEATING AND DRYING IN THE STRONG FLOW SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THIS STRATUS FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SHOW THE DECK WILL ACTUALLY BE ERODING FROM THE TOP...THIS HAS BEEN MOST APPARENT ON THE RAP RH PROJECTIONS FOR H900/925/950 MB. A THICKER DECK WOULD BE A LOT MORE STUBBORN BUT THIS ONE SHOULD BREAK UP STEADILY. SKIES WILL TEND TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH CLOUDS COME AND GO. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY AS WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING THEM CONSIDERING THE EXISTING SNOW COVER...WITH EVERYBODY EXPECTED TO BUST THE FREEZING MARK AND GETTING AS WARM AS 50 SOUTHWEST IN GREGORY COUNTY. COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS WEAK AND WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS RIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH MAINLY A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET POTENTIAL. IF THIS POTENTIAL DEVELOPS THERE WOULD BE PROBLEMS...BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN DECENT MODEL SUPPORT TO PUN THE PRECIPITATION DOWN ANY BETTERED AT THIS TIME. IN THE MILD AIR NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT....LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THUS MOST OF US WILL SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY IN THE 20S AND 30S. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. 0Z NAM IS STRONGEST WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND IS ALSO QUICKER WITH THE PV ANOMALY EXITING THE ROCKIES. THE INTERACTION OF THE TWO LEADS TO HIGHER QPF SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE 0Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND THE PV ANOMALY...RESULTING IN LESS INTERACTION AND WEAKER LIFT...THUS ALLOWING THE DRY AIR TO MAINLY WIN OUT. THE STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS FROM THE NAM IS POSSIBLE...AS IT USUALLY CATCHES ON TO THAT FIRST WITH ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. A STRONGER FRONT WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE WE SATURATE AND GET SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVEN FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER FEEL THE SLOWER AND WEAKER PV ANOMALY FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF IS MORE LIKELY...AS THE NAM SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER AND CAN REALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS BEYOND 24 HOURS. THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT AND PUSH SOUTH SOME OF THE HIGHER QPF VALUES SEEN ON THE NAM DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL GO WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT BUT WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING IDEA...WHICH RESULTS IN POPS PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR TAPERING AS YOU HEAD NORTH. THIS ALSO RESULTS IN A BLENDED QPF...SLIGHTLY SKEWED TOWARDS THE DRIER SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM. WARM AIR ALOFT INITIALLY MAY RESULT IN A LIGHT WINTRY MIX INITIALLY...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN AND WE WET BULB. AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW THOUGH...MAINLY JUST A LIGHT COATING OF ICE OR SNOW...MAYBE UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOW ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS THOUGH...AS IF THE NAM VERIFIED SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE HIGHER IN OUR SOUTH...BUT AGAIN THIS SEEMS LIKE A LOWER PROBABILITY EVENT AT THIS TIME. IT WILL BE A COLD ONE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS COMMON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE COLD LOW LEVELS WILL HANG ON...RESULTING IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. HOWEVER THE WARMUP REALLY BEGINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SUGGESTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IS INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST FROM THE SNOWPACK AND HOW MUCH IT INHIBITS WARMING. GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW COVER OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...THINK THEY WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 40S BOTH DAYS. MORE UNCERTAIN ELSEWHERE...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOWPACK WE LOSE OVER THE COMING DAYS. WITH THE MARCH SUN...MELTING COULD BE PRETTY EFFICIENT...HOWEVER TODAY AND TOMORROW MAY TEND TO STAY MAINLY CLOUDY...AND SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER...SO NOT SURE WHERE WE WILL BE SNOWPACK WISE COME SUNDAY. THUS STAYED ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE FOR NOW ON SUNDAY. DID WARM HIGHS ON MONDAY OVER ALLBLEND THOUGH...AS MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE SNOW COVER WILL BE LESS OF A FACTOR OUTSIDE OF OUR EASTERN AREAS. THUS 50S AND LOW 60S SHOULD BE A GOOD BET ON MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS BOTH DAYS COULD END UP SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST DEPENDING ON THE ABOVE SNOW COVER IMPACT THOUGH...SO WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH NOT THAT COLD OF AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE HIGHS COULD STAY IN THE 30S AND 40S. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT...BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN THE WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 IFR CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET AND MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO PERSIST BENEATH STRENGTHENING INVERSION ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND NEARBY AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PULL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD...WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AND/OR MVFR-IFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK INTO AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE LOW STRATUS COULD BE AREAS -FZDZ AS WARM ADVECTION LIFT INCREASES ABOVE THE INVERSION...AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THIS IN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS AT KFSD/KSUX DURING 06Z-12Z PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. WHILE THE FRONT SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE LOWEST IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-29...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LACK OF MOISTURE BETWEEN LOW STRATUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER SHOULD LIMIT POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. OCCASIONAL SOUTHERLY SURFACE GUSTS ABOVE 25 KNOTS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 07/00Z. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...CHENARD AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1049 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .AVIATION... MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME MVFR CIGS APPEARING IN OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THINKING IS THAT MVFR CLOUD DECK UP NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND ERODE DURING THE DAY (AS SUPPORTED BY HRRR). A COUPLE TAF SITES MIGHT GO BROKEN BUT THINK SKIES SHOULD STAY SCATTERED FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALL THANKS TO THE AREA BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED 850MB WINDS AROUND 20KTS WITH 700MB WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. MIXING HAS ALREADY STARTED THIS MORNING ALLOWING SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN. MODELS ARE ALSO ADVERTISING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MAKING A COME BACK TOMORROW MORNING BUT KEEPING TAF SITES VFR. 23 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/ DISCUSSION... COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN EDGES OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THAT WILL LIKELY HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES. STILL LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND START TO WARM THINGS UP AS WE HEAD ON INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL WAIT FOR ALL OF THE 12Z MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENT TO OUR WEEKEND`S RAIN CHANCES. 42 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/ DISCUSSION... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION. AVIATION... IR/3.9-11 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ERODING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES TO NEAR THE COAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS TO IMPROVE OVER THE LAST HOUR. EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. CONCERNED THAT CLOUD COVER OVER N TX MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA BUT MODELS ARE MIXING ENOUGH THAT DOUBT THERE WILL BE OVC/BKN MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. LIKED HRRR RUNS WHERE THESE CLOUDS DO ERODE BUT STILL DEVELOP SCT/BKN CLOUDS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 39 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/ DISCUSSION... A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS WERE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS EMERGED BEGINNING SUNDAY. OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL SITE MEX AND ECMWF GUIDANCE NUMBERS DIFFERED BY MORE THAN 10 DEGREES. BECAUSE OF THIS...DECIDED TO TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODELS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO SE TX. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO SCATTER OUT AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS MAY GET UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE NIGHT OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. AM LESS CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE MORE DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 WAS DRIER FOR SATURDAY EVEN WITH THE MODEL PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF WAS VERY WET WHILE THE GFS WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS DID NOT SHOW A LOT OF INSTABILITY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS CONFIRMED BY FORECASTS OF THE LIFTED INDEX FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE DRIER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF DIFFERED EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY. DECIDED LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE PREVIOUS RAIN CHANCE FORECAST AND BLEND IN WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER IN TIMING AND LOCATION...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PUSH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX AND OFF THE COAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...KEPT SOME RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...OFF THE COAST TUESDAY...AND AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE... FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH SE TX TODAY SHOULD REACH THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT N/NW WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS. WILL HAVE SCEC AS DO NOT SEE SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20KTS TO WARRANT SCA. SCEC WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER E TX TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH OFF THE COAST SOMETIME SUNDAY BUT ALL MODELS SHOW CONFLICTING TIMING. GFS/ECMWF EVEN HAVING TROUBLE DETERMINING IF A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY (ECMWF) OR TUESDAY (GFS). THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT WINDS/SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ECMWF HAS STRONG COLD FRONT ON WED WHERE GFS HAS FRONT COMING THROUGH NEXT THUR. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 38 67 50 69 / 0 0 10 10 40 HOUSTON (IAH) 60 39 66 51 71 / 0 0 10 10 30 GALVESTON (GLS) 59 47 61 55 67 / 0 0 10 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...42 AVIATION/MARINE...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1023 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014 .DISCUSSION... COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN EDGES OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS THAT WILL LIKELY HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES. STILL LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND START TO WARM THINGS UP AS WE HEAD ON INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL WAIT FOR ALL OF THE 12Z MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENT TO OUR WEEKEND`S RAIN CHANCES. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/ DISCUSSION... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION. AVIATION... IR/3.9-11 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ERODING AS COLD FRONT PUSHS TO NEAR THE COAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR/MFVR CIGS TO IMPROVE OVER THE LAST HOUR. EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. CONCERNED THAT CLOUD COVER OVER N TX MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA BUT MODELS ARE MIXING ENOUGH THAT DOUBT THERE WILL BE OVC/BKN MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. LIKED HRRR RUNS WHERE THESE CLOUDS DO ERODE BUT STILL DEVELOP SCT/BKN CLOUDS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 39 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/ DISCUSSION... A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS WERE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS EMERGED BEGINNING SUNDAY. OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL SITE MEX AND ECMWF GUIDANCE NUMBERS DIFFERED BY MORE THAN 10 DEGREES. BECAUSE OF THIS...DECIDED TO TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODELS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO SE TX. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO SCATTER OUT AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AT SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS MAY GET UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE NIGHT OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. AM LESS CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE MORE DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 WAS DRIER FOR SATURDAY EVEN WITH THE MODEL PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF WAS VERY WET WHILE THE GFS WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS DID NOT SHOW A LOT OF INSTABILITY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS CONFIRMED BY FORECASTS OF THE LIFTED INDEX FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE DRIER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF DIFFERED EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY. DECIDED LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE PREVIOUS RAIN CHANCE FORECAST AND BLEND IN WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER IN TIMING AND LOCATION...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PUSH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX AND OFF THE COAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...KEPT SOME RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...OFF THE COAST TUESDAY...AND AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINE... FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH SE TX TODAY SHOULD REACH THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT N/NW WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS. WILL HAVE SCEC AS DO NOT SEE SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20KTS TO WARRANT SCA. SCEC WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER E TX TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH OFF THE COAST SOMETIME SUNDAY BUT ALL MODELS SHOW CONFLICTING TIMING. GFS/ECMWF EVEN HAVING TROUBLE DETERMINING IF A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY (ECMWF) OR TUESDAY (GFS). THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT WINDS/SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ECMWF HAS STRONG COLD FRONT ON WED WHERE GFS HAS FRONT COMING THROUGH NEXT THUR. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 38 67 50 69 / 0 0 10 10 40 HOUSTON (IAH) 60 39 66 51 71 / 0 0 10 10 30 GALVESTON (GLS) 59 47 61 55 67 / 0 0 10 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...42 AVIATION/MARINE...23