Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/05/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS RENO NV

 949 AM PST MON MAR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATING AGAIN AS A BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING INTO LASSEN COUNTY
THIS MORNING. RADAR/MODELS SHOW IT WELL WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. GFS/HRRR MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS BAND TODAY AND RADAR/OBS TRENDS ARE DEFINITELY ALONG
THESE WETTER SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE INCREASED POPS/QPF FOR
LASSEN/PLUMAS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TENTH TO 1/4 INCH OF
RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH, NEAR 7000 FEET AROUND TAHOE
AND 6500 FEET FOR LASSEN/PLUMAS. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT
THERE AS WELL.

THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TONIGHT. MORE ON THAT
THIS AFTERNOON. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
DISCUSSION BELOW STILL MOSTLY VALID, BUT LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR
ANY -SN AROUND KTRK/TVL. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
6500 FEET FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT TONIGHT. CHANCE OF ANY
SNOW THAT WILL BRING IFR CIGS/VIS LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 20 PCT
NOW. WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM PST MON MAR 3 2014/

UPDATE...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PCPN IN NRN CA GETTING CLOSE TO THE CWA THIS
MORNING. WEB CAM AT BOGARD REST AREA IN WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY
INDICATES WET PAVEMENT. THE PCPN IS LIKELY LIGHT ENOUGH RIGHT NOW
TO BE MISSED BY RADAR. IN ANY EVENT PCPN IS MOVING IN AND THIS IS
A BIT FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS OVER THE NW CWA THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH
FOR A WHILE RESULTING IN ONLY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF LASSEN COUNTY JUST EAST OF LASSEN PARK. IT IS LIKELY
THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED A BIT MORE TODAY OVER THE NORTH.
ALSO BUMPED UP QPF A LITTLE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 09 UTC SREF. 20

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM PST MON MAR 3 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A BAND OF SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING AREAS OF RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MORE RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SIERRA AND
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. LATER THIS WEEK, DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE BAND OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM HAWAII TO THE CENTRAL CA COAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE WEST
COAST. HOWEVER, DESPITE THIS DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, FORCING IS
LIMITED WHICH WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION INTENSITY EAST OF THE
SIERRA CREST AND INTO WESTERN NV THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORED THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW FOR LATER TONIGHT, THE 06Z GFS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SPREAD
MORE AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, WITH
A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD PUSH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM 6500 TO 7000 FEET, BUT GIVEN THE
SUBTROPICAL AND EVEN TROPICAL ORIGIN OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME, THEY
COULD RISE 500-1000 FEET HIGHER THAN THESE PROJECTIONS AT TIMES.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AROUND LAKE LEVEL IN
THE TAHOE BASIN FOR THIS EVENT.

MODEL QPF INDICATES UP TO 0.50 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP
NEAR THE SIERRA CREST WEST OF TAHOE, WHICH WOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE
TO ABOUT 4 INCHES OF WET SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET. A BROAD AREA OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.20 INCH IS ALSO INDICATED DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA. PRECIP CHANCES WERE INCREASED
ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 50 AND I-80 CORRIDORS FOR LATE TONIGHT, BUT
GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS, RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED SOONER IN THESE AREAS.

FOR TUESDAY, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AS FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPS INCREASING TO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FURTHER WARMING IS LIKELY AS
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AGAIN WITH ONSET TIME OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AS THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO NORTHEAST
CA DURING THE DAY, WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF ON MEASURABLE PRECIP
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
STRONGER PRECIP SHADOWING EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST, WHILE IN THE
SIERRA THE SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE EVEN HIGHER THAN THE FIRST
PRECIP EVENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT IN WESTERN NV
IS MORE LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. MJD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO BUMP
UP POPS THURSDAY MORNING AND ADD POPS FOR SUNDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE NRN PART OF THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA
BEFORE STALLING AND FURTHER WEAKENING OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE
REGION. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT STAY LESS
THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE QPF OVER FAR NRN AREAS IS BETTER THAN
0.50 INCHES...SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM START FAIRLY HIGH.
THUS...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
FOR NOW WE DO NOT SEE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THIS SYSTEM. OF
COURSE...THIS COULD ALL CHANGE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FOR FRIDAY THEN SLIDES EAST SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. AFTER WARM TEMPS ON
THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY...THEN TEMPS BUMP
UP AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE ANOTHER ONE OF THOSE DAYS
WHERE WINDS GUST INTO THE 40 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY FROM HWY 50
NORTHWARD.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT MOISTURE TAP AND SHOULD HAVE GOOD ENOUGH
DYNAMICS TO SQUEEZE OUT PCPN OVER THE NRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. THE
BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR NOW LOOK TO BE FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD
INTO NE CA.  EVEN SO...THIS FAR OUT PCPN AMOUNTS ARE QUITE VARIABLE
WITH ECMWF SHOWING THE BEST AT AROUND 0.35 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA.
ALL THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THE EVENT NEXT WEEKEND
SO RIGHT NOW THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM IN MUCH DEVELOPING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. 20

AVIATION...

PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING INTO THE NRN CA COAST THIS MORNING. AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE NRN
FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE TAHOE BASIN.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH ACROSS
NE CA AND FAR NW NV BY EARLY EVENING WITH MOST MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LONGER.

SNOW LEVELS START FAIRLY HIGH TODAY SO ANY TERMINALS THAT PICK UP
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY DROP TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AROUND THE LAKE
TAHOE BASIN AND PARTS OF PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BANDS. THIS WILL DRIVE KTRK AND KTVL TO IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AFTER 4/02 UTC...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE RUNWAYS WILL BE MINIMAL. RIDGE GUSTS SHOULD BE
NO WORSE THAN 50 MPH TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE SIERRA CREST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT
MOST OTHER AREAS SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

 625 AM PST MON MAR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PCPN IN NRN CA GETTING CLOSE TO THE CWA THIS
MORNING. WEB CAM AT BOGARD REST AREA IN WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY
INDICATES WET PAVEMENT. THE PCPN IS LIKELY LIGHT ENOUGH RIGHT NOW
TO BE MISSED BY RADAR. IN ANY EVENT PCPN IS MOVING IN AND THIS IS
A BIT FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS OVER THE NW CWA THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH
FOR A WHILE RESULTING IN ONLY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF LASSEN COUNTY JUST EAST OF LASSEN PARK. IT IS LIKELY
THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED A BIT MORE TODAY OVER THE NORTH.
ALSO BUMPED UP QPF A LITTLE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 09 UTC SREF. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM PST MON MAR 3 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A BAND OF SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING AREAS OF RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MORE RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SIERRA AND
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. LATER THIS WEEK, DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE BAND OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM HAWAII TO THE CENTRAL CA COAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE WEST
COAST. HOWEVER, DESPITE THIS DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, FORCING IS
LIMITED WHICH WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION INTENSITY EAST OF THE
SIERRA CREST AND INTO WESTERN NV THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORED THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW FOR LATER TONIGHT, THE 06Z GFS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SPREAD
MORE AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, WITH
A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD PUSH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM 6500 TO 7000 FEET, BUT GIVEN THE
SUBTROPICAL AND EVEN TROPICAL ORIGIN OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME, THEY
COULD RISE 500-1000 FEET HIGHER THAN THESE PROJECTIONS AT TIMES.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AROUND LAKE LEVEL IN
THE TAHOE BASIN FOR THIS EVENT.

MODEL QPF INDICATES UP TO 0.50 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP
NEAR THE SIERRA CREST WEST OF TAHOE, WHICH WOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE
TO ABOUT 4 INCHES OF WET SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET. A BROAD AREA OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.20 INCH IS ALSO INDICATED DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA. PRECIP CHANCES WERE INCREASED
ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 50 AND I-80 CORRIDORS FOR LATE TONIGHT, BUT
GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS, RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED SOONER IN THESE AREAS.

FOR TUESDAY, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AS FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPS INCREASING TO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FURTHER WARMING IS LIKELY AS
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AGAIN WITH ONSET TIME OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AS THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO NORTHEAST
CA DURING THE DAY, WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF ON MEASURABLE PRECIP
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
STRONGER PRECIP SHADOWING EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST, WHILE IN THE
SIERRA THE SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE EVEN HIGHER THAN THE FIRST
PRECIP EVENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT IN WESTERN NV
IS MORE LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. MJD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO BUMP
UP POPS THURSDAY MORNING AND ADD POPS FOR SUNDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE NRN PART OF THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA
BEFORE STALLING AND FURTHER WEAKENING OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE
REGION. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT STAY LESS
THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE QPF OVER FAR NRN AREAS IS BETTER THAN
0.50 INCHES...SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM START FAIRLY HIGH.
THUS...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
FOR NOW WE DO NOT SEE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THIS SYSTEM. OF
COURSE...THIS COULD ALL CHANGE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FOR FRIDAY THEN SLIDES EAST SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. AFTER WARM TEMPS ON
THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY...THEN TEMPS BUMP
UP AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE ANOTHER ONE OF THOSE DAYS
WHERE WINDS GUST INTO THE 40 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY FROM HWY 50
NORTHWARD.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT MOISTURE TAP AND SHOULD HAVE GOOD ENOUGH
DYNAMICS TO SQUEEZE OUT PCPN OVER THE NRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. THE
BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR NOW LOOK TO BE FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD
INTO NE CA.  EVEN SO...THIS FAR OUT PCPN AMOUNTS ARE QUITE VARIABLE
WITH ECMWF SHOWING THE BEST AT AROUND 0.35 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA.
ALL THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THE EVENT NEXT WEEKEND
SO RIGHT NOW THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM IN MUCH DEVELOPING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. 20

AVIATION...

PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING INTO THE NRN CA COAST THIS MORNING. AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE NRN
FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE TAHOE BASIN.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH ACROSS
NE CA AND FAR NW NV BY EARLY EVENING WITH MOST MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LONGER.

SNOW LEVELS START FAIRLY HIGH TODAY SO ANY TERMINALS THAT PICK UP
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY DROP TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AROUND THE LAKE
TAHOE BASIN AND PARTS OF PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BANDS. THIS WILL DRIVE KTRK AND KTVL TO IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AFTER 4/02 UTC...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE RUNWAYS WILL BE MINIMAL. RIDGE GUSTS SHOULD BE
NO WORSE THAN 50 MPH TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE SIERRA CREST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT
MOST OTHER AREAS SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

 329 AM PST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A BAND OF SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING AREAS OF RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MORE RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SIERRA AND
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. LATER THIS WEEK, DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE BAND OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM HAWAII TO THE CENTRAL CA COAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE WEST
COAST. HOWEVER, DESPITE THIS DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, FORCING IS
LIMITED WHICH WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION INTENSITY EAST OF THE
SIERRA CREST AND INTO WESTERN NV THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORED THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW FOR LATER TONIGHT, THE 06Z GFS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SPREAD
MORE AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, WITH
A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD PUSH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM 6500 TO 7000 FEET, BUT GIVEN THE
SUBTROPICAL AND EVEN TROPICAL ORIGIN OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME, THEY
COULD RISE 500-1000 FEET HIGHER THAN THESE PROJECTIONS AT TIMES.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AROUND LAKE LEVEL IN
THE TAHOE BASIN FOR THIS EVENT.

MODEL QPF INDICATES UP TO 0.50 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP
NEAR THE SIERRA CREST WEST OF TAHOE, WHICH WOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE
TO ABOUT 4 INCHES OF WET SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET. A BROAD AREA OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.20 INCH IS ALSO INDICATED DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA. PRECIP CHANCES WERE INCREASED
ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 50 AND I-80 CORRIDORS FOR LATE TONIGHT, BUT
GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS, RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED SOONER IN THESE AREAS.

FOR TUESDAY, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AS FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPS INCREASING TO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FURTHER WARMING IS LIKELY AS
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AGAIN WITH ONSET TIME OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AS THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO NORTHEAST
CA DURING THE DAY, WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF ON MEASURABLE PRECIP
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
STRONGER PRECIP SHADOWING EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST, WHILE IN THE
SIERRA THE SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE EVEN HIGHER THAN THE FIRST
PRECIP EVENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT IN WESTERN NV
IS MORE LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. MJD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO BUMP
UP POPS THURSDAY MORNING AND ADD POPS FOR SUNDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE NRN PART OF THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA
BEFORE STALLING AND FURTHER WEAKENING OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE
REGION. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT STAY LESS
THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE QPF OVER FAR NRN AREAS IS BETTER THAN
0.50 INCHES...SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM START FAIRLY HIGH.
THUS...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
FOR NOW WE DO NOT SEE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THIS SYSTEM. OF
COURSE...THIS COULD ALL CHANGE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FOR FRIDAY THEN SLIDES EAST SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. AFTER WARM TEMPS ON
THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY...THEN TEMPS BUMP
UP AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE ANOTHER ONE OF THOSE DAYS
WHERE WINDS GUST INTO THE 40 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY FROM HWY 50
NORTHWARD.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT MOISTURE TAP AND SHOULD HAVE GOOD ENOUGH
DYNAMICS TO SQUEEZE OUT PCPN OVER THE NRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. THE
BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR NOW LOOK TO BE FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD
INTO NE CA.  EVEN SO...THIS FAR OUT PCPN AMOUNTS ARE QUITE VARIABLE
WITH ECMWF SHOWING THE BEST AT AROUND 0.35 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA.
ALL THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THE EVENT NEXT WEEKEND
SO RIGHT NOW THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM IN MUCH DEVELOPING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. 20
&&

.AVIATION...

PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING INTO THE NRN CA COAST THIS MORNING. AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE NRN
FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE TAHOE BASIN.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH ACROSS
NE CA AND FAR NW NV BY EARLY EVENING WITH MOST MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LONGER.

SNOW LEVELS START FAIRLY HIGH TODAY SO ANY TERMINALS THAT PICK UP
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY DROP TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AROUND THE LAKE
TAHOE BASIN AND PARTS OF PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BANDS. THIS WILL DRIVE KTRK AND KTVL TO IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AFTER 4/02 UTC...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE RUNWAYS WILL BE MINIMAL. RIDGE GUSTS SHOULD BE
NO WORSE THAN 50 MPH TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE SIERRA CREST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT
MOST OTHER AREAS SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 323 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014

WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXITING
EASTERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRYING NOTED IN WV LOOPS BEHIND
IT.  ISOLATED MAINLY OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.  MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.  LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY STRUGGLED TO
WARM INTO THE 30S TODAY...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WANING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THESE AREAS MAY COOL QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
OTHER AREAS HOWEVER WILL SEE WAA WITH LEE TROFFING OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH LOWER 30S FOR PORTIONS OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WITH NAM12 AND RAP SUGGESTING
FOG FROM ROUGHLY KLHX EASTWARD.  HOWEVER...ALSO LOOKING AT NEXT
ROUND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
DISTANCE SPEED TOOL PUTS THIS INTO THE AREA BY 03-04Z...AND IF CLOUD
COVER IS THICK ENOUGH...MAY PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING.  HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/UPPER LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE
CEN/NRN CA COAST.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW INTO THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH LEE TROFFING AND POCKETS OF BREEZY WEST WINDS ACROSS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  THIS SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY...EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL AID IN DEEPER
MIXING.  SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AFTER
21Z...SPREADING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON.  LAPSE RATES LOOK FAIRLY STEEP...SO SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY WET SNOW WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS.
FORTUNATELY THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO LAST FOR LONG WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS.  THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD PICK UP A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES ON AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH
OF A SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE STATE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST NAM CONTINUING TO BE THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM AND IS THEREFORE PRINTING OUT MUCH LESS QPF ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALSO TRENDED LESS AMPLIFIED AND A TAD FURTHER
NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...THOUGH ARE STILL
PRINTING OUT MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH BETTER MOISTURE
AND UVV WITH LF QUAD OF ASSOCIATED JET. THE NAMS TRACK RECORD OVER
THE PAST FEW MONTHS HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR...AND WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE PIKES PEAK REGION THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PALMER DVD WITH PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE PLAINS STARTING AS RAIN BEFORE BECOMING MIXED WITH AND
CHANGING TO SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEHIND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN...WILL NEED TO
SEE HOW AMPLIFIED THIS SYSTEM IS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE OR LESS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MTS AND PLAINS.
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY...THOUGH
STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...WARMER WESTERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE
SOME SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITHIN THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTS WITH WESTERLY GAP FLOWS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...40S AND 50S ACROSS THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS AND MAINLY
30S AT THE PEAKS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE
AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY....WITH THE ECMWF STILL INDICATING A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS TRACK REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DECENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS AND SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST H7-H5 FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.  COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING LOWER CIGS INTO THE KCOS
AREA ASSOC WITH SHOWERS.  FOR NOW...CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 1153 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CAROLINA WILL HEAD EAST AND OUT TO SEA LATE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY THEN ITS PRIMARY CENTER SHIFTS TO MAINE BY THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND EAST FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THAT FRONT
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WAS ABLE TO SHAVE ANOTHER LAYER OF WARNING OFF LEAVING MOST OF THE
DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY INTACT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
REGIONAL RADAR IS STILL SHOWING SOME ENHANCED REFLECTIVITIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA BUT THE VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER WILL PREVENT MUCH, IF ANY, OF THIS MOISTURE FROM REACHING
THE SURFACE.

DID ADJUST SNOW TOTALS DOWNWARD A BIT AND EXPECTING OUR MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS TO BE AROUND 8 INCHES IN CENTRAL DELMARVA. THE BEST OMEGA
WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH SEEMS TO BE...AS PER THE RUC TRICKLING
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELMARVA INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THIS
THEN ALL SHIFTS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THE SNOW BEGINS TO WIND DOWN.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH AS THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLES
IN. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT RISE MUCH TODAY...INSTEAD
MOSTLY HOLDING STEADY EARLY THEN FALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL START THE DAY MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...BUT
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS LATE. WIND CHILL READINGS
ABOUT 10 COLDER OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NE PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL HAVE MOVED
OFFSHORE BY EARLY TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLR
SKIES. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE SUB-ZERO OVER THE SRN POCONOS AND NRN NJ AND IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN -10 AND -15
ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN POCONOS AND 0 TO -10
ELSEWHERE. THESE WIND CHILL VALUES ARE JUST SHORT OF WSW (WIND
CHILL) ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE WILL NOT ISSUE AND WSW PRODUCTS FOR
THIS NOW...BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT IT MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON IF
WINDS END UP BEING HIGHER...OR TEMPS FCST BECOMES LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500MB: RELATIVELY INNOCUOUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE VERY
COLD AIRMASS MODIFIES. THEN A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS FOR A TIME LATE
THIS WEEK AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
USA...SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WEEKEND SHORT WAVE MOVING EWD FROM THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES...AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY...15 BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO NORMAL OR A BIT ABOVE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY COOLING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS...MOSTLY 00Z/3 GFS MOS GUIDANCE TUE-WED NIGHT AND
THEN 0543Z/3 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE THAT WAS MODIFIED USING ECMWF OP
GUIDANCE.


THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY...DRY WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD
COVER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL BRUSH WITH THE SE
USA LOW? QUITE UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE HIGH BECOMES STRONG NEAR MAINE
BY THURSDAY...ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS WITH POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF LIGHT MIXED PCPN.

FRIDAY...FOR NOW LOOKS DRY WITH THE SE USA LOW HEADING SEAWARD.

NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THE COLD FRONT PASSING
THRU THE REGION WHICH WOULD COMPLICATE MATTERS...SO HAVE A LOW CHC
OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WERE CONTINUING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT 1400Z.
KRDG, KABE, KTTN AND KPNE WERE VFR AND THEY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE SNOW SHOULD END WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING INTO THE VFR CATEGORY BY 1600Z AT KPHL, BY 1700Z AT KILG
AND BY 1800Z AT KMIV AND KACY.

A NORTH NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GUST INTO THE LOWER 20S. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH INTO THE 4
TO 8 KNOT RANGE FOR TONIGHT WITH NO GUSTS ANTICIPATED AT THAT TIME.


OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR OCNL CIGS AOA 10000 FT.
LIGHT WIND.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CONDS IN SPOTTY PCPN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
NIGHT? WIND BECOMING NE G 10-15 KT. CONFIDENCE BELOW AVG.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS OR SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. NE WIND. CONFIDENCE BELOW AVG.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE WITH THE SCA FLAG FOR THE WATERS TODAY ACROSS ALL
WATERS...AND TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE OCEAN WATERS. NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE ATTM. SNOW/RAIN WILL BE ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DEL/SRN NJ/DEL BAY AREAS...LIGHTER
AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY MORNING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS FROM OFF MANASQUAN INLET TO OFF FENWICK ISLAND DUE TO
NORTHERN WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5 FEET.
LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING HAS BEEN DEVELOPED FROM MANY RESOURCES OVER THE
PAST WEEK OR SO.

KABE...THE CURRENT 38 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL
PROBABLY EXTEND TO AT LEAST 45 DAYS (FRIDAY MARCH 7TH) WHICH WOULD
EQUAL THE 4TH LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAY STREAK WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN ALLENTOWN IN 1923.

KABE CONSECUTIVE DAY RANKING
1. 78 DAYS ENDING MARCH 22 1994.
2. 59 DAYS ENDING MARCH 13 1978
3 TIE 49 DAYS ENDING FEB 12 1977 AND FEB 19 1925
4. 45 DAYS ENDING MARCH 4 1936
5. 43 DAYS ENDING FEB 2 1970


RECORD LOWS (POR EQUAL PERIOD OF RECORD)

    MARCH 3   MARCH 4
(AT 1159PM?)

ACY 5-2009    3-2009    POR 1874
PHL 10-1886   7-1943    POR 1872
ILG 9-2009/1925  5-1943 POR 1894
ABE 8-1950/1925  3-1943 POR 1922
TTN 5-1868       1-1868 POR 1865
GED 9-2009       6-2009 POR 1948
RDG 9-2009/1980/1925  7-1943 AND 1913   POR 1869
MPO -2 2003      -6-1943                POR 1865

SEASONAL SNOWFALL RANKINGS AS OF 1 AM EST 3/3/14

PHL 59.5 #3  OFFICIAL RECORDS BACK TO 1884
1. 78.7 2009-2010
2. 65.5 1995-1996
3. 59.5 2013-2014
4. 55.4 1898-1899

ABE 66.9 #4 OFFICIAL RECORDS BACK TO 1922

1. 75.4 1993-1994
2. 71.4 1995-1996
3. 67.2 1966-1967
4. 66.9 2013-2014
5. 65.2 1960-1961

ILG 48.4 #4  OFFICIAL RECORDS BACK TO 1894
1. 72.8 2009-2010
2. 49.5 1957-1958
3. 48.8 1906-1907 (MISSING DAYS IN THE DATABASE FOR THIS SEASON)
4. 48.4 2013-2014
5. 46.1 2002-2003

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

 722 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS MOVED WELL INLAND HELPING TO POP A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR KEEPS
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WEAKENS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE.
HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE
AND CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR FOR THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT WITH
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT
GUIDANCE IS MIXED SO NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT OF WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR WILL BE NORTHERN SITES OF
PIE...TPA AND LAL. FOG-PRONE PGD WILL LIKELY SEE OCNL MVFR/IFR AS
WELL. VFR RETURNS BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FLOW WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE SO WE SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHIFTING WINDS TO ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. PRESENT MARINE FORECAST
LOOKS OK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR LATE EVENING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  60  78  65  75 /  10  30  30  50
FMY  63  83  64  81 /  10  20  20  50
GIF  60  81  63  77 /  30  30  30  60
SRQ  59  79  63  75 /  10  20  30  50
BKV  53  77  59  75 /  10  30  50  60
SPG  63  77  66  75 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...69/CLOSE
AVIATION...63/JILLSON





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 647 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WELL TO OUR SE. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
KEEPING OUR TEMPS WARM EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...APPROACHING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVE EAST ALONG IT. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY...CURRENTLY
STRETCHING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPS/NW SC/N GA WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
OUR NW FA BY 12Z TO 13Z...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL BACK
DOOR THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN QUESTION
INVOLVES PRECIP TYPE BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT A RAPID COOL DOWN
WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY A
WIND SHIFT WITH BREEZY NE WINDS. HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING IN...MODELS INDICATE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL BE DRYING OUT. SO...AT THIS TIME..IT APPEARS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
FOR THE NE FA THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. IMPACT EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL...SO WILL NOT
ISSUE AN ADVISORY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES TODAY AND
TONIGHT BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS ON WARMER
AREA LAKES TONIGHT COULD APPROACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT CONFIDENCE A LITTLE TOO LOW TO ISSUE LWA AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT TO PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUE/WED LEADING TO A SURFACE WAVE OR TWO
RIDING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION INTO OUR REGION. GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND HIGHER POPS. WILL FAVOR SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCY...AND GIVEN APPEARANCE
OF DRY MID LEVELS...THINK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAVORING THE SOUTHERN
FA TUE NT AND WED LOOKS OK. LOOKING AT PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONGER UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SE CONUS WILL PROMOTE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD STALLED FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH PROVIDING MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR FA FOR WED NT THRU THU
NT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH ECMWF
STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LOW AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE
LOW...THUS PROVIDING A WETTER SOLUTION FOR OUR FA. LARGE RANGE IN
POPS NOTED IN GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. HPC GUIDANCE PROVIDING
LIKELY POPS...IN LINE WITH ONGOING FORECAST. IN SITU WEDGE AT THE
SURFACE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDING A LITTLE WARMER WITH LOW
LEVEL TEMPS/THICKNESS VALUES AND SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS...AND IT
STILL APPEARS ALL RAIN FOR THE PRECIP TYPE. ECMWF ALSO SLOWER WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING OUT WITH INDICATIONS OF LIGHT PRECIP
POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR
SATURDAY. GFS BRINGS THE NEXT FRONT IN SUNDAY...WHILE ECMWF
APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MAYBE SUN NT OR MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE 19Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME. MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE HRRR SHOWED AN IFR CEILING SPREADING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT. OBS THIS MORNING DO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN GA...BUT LOOKS LIKE THE STRATUS WILL MISS
MOST OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT POSSIBLY OGB WHERE I HAVE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV AND MET MOS
AND MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE OF
THE INCONSISTENT HRRR GUIDANCE. STRONG MIXING HELPED PREVENT ANY FOG
FORMATION THIS MORNING AND NON IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST KCAE 88D VAD
WIND PROFILE INDICATED SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS
MORNING. VWP CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST 40 TO 45 KT
JET FROM 1K FT AND ABOVE. THE NAM INDICATED SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 14-15Z WHEN HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BECOME
MORE DOMINATE. LATER IN THE DAY...THE NAM AND GFS MOS DIFFERED WITH
THE NAM SHOWING IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
GFS MOS INDICATED LOW-END VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS. WE AVERAGED THIS
GUIDANCE AND FORECASTED MVFR CEILINGS. THE NAM MOS MAY BE TOO LOW
WITH ITS CEILING FORECAST BECAUSE CONSIDERABLE WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD
UP CEILINGS. THERE MAY ALSO BE RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN
NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT BUT BELIEVE THIS RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT
WITH LIMITED EFFECT ON VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS LAMP INDICATED
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE NAM MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. THE NAM AND GFS MOS...EVEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...STRONG CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH NORTH NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT REMAIN NORTH NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 345 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WELL TO OUR SE. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
KEEPING OUR TEMPS WARM EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...APPROACHING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVE EAST ALONG IT. COLD FRONT WILL BACK DOOR THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN QUESTION INVOLVES PRECIP TYPE.
EXPECT A RAPID COOL DOWN WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT WITH BREEZY NE WINDS.
HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN...MODELS INDICATE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE DRYING OUT.
SO...AT THIS TIME..IT APPEARS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SLEET OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE NE FA THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
IMPACT EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL...SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT BOTH AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS ON WARMER AREA LAKES TONIGHT
COULD APPROACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT CONFIDENCE A
LITTLE TOO LOW TO ISSUE LWA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT TO PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUE/WED LEADING TO A SURFACE WAVE OR TWO
RIDING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION INTO OUR REGION. GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND HIGHER POPS. WILL FAVOR SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCY...AND GIVEN APPEARANCE
OF DRY MID LEVELS...THINK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAVORING THE SOUTHERN
FA TUE NT AND WED LOOKS OK. LOOKING AT PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONGER UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SE CONUS WILL PROMOTE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD STALLED FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH PROVIDING MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR FA FOR WED NT THRU THU
NT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH ECMWF
STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LOW AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE
LOW...THUS PROVIDING A WETTER SOLUTION FOR OUR FA. LARGE RANGE IN
POPS NOTED IN GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. HPC GUIDANCE PROVIDING
LIKELY POPS...IN LINE WITH ONGOING FORECAST. IN SITU WEDGE AT THE
SURFACE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDING A LITTLE WARMER WITH LOW
LEVEL TEMPS/THICKNESS VALUES AND SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS...AND IT
STILL APPEARS ALL RAIN FOR THE PRECIP TYPE. ECMWF ALSO SLOWER WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING OUT WITH INDICATIONS OF LIGHT PRECIP
POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR
SATURDAY. GFS BRINGS THE NEXT FRONT IN SUNDAY...WHILE ECMWF
APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MAYBE SUN NT OR MON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE 19Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME. MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS SREF
GUIDANCE MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE 23Z HRRR SHOWED AN IFR CEILING SPREADING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN.
HOWEVER...NEITHER THE NAM/GFS SHOWED ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE CLOUDS
LATER THIS MORNING. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV AND MET MOS AND MAINTAINED
VFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE OF THE
INCONSISTENT HRRR GUIDANCE. MIXING SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST KCAE 88D VAD WIND PROFILE
INDICATED SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. VWP CURRENTLY SHOWS A
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST 40 TO 45 KT JET FROM 1K FT AND ABOVE. THE NAM
INDICATED SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 14Z
WHEN HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BECOME MORE DOMINATE. LATER IN THE
DAY...THE NAM AND GFS MOS DIFFERED WITH THE NAM SHOWING IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS MOS INDICATED LOW-END VFR
OR MVFR CEILINGS. WE AVERAGED THIS GUIDANCE AND FORECASTED MVFR
CEILINGS. THE NAM MOS MAY BE TOO LOW WITH ITS CEILING FORECAST
BECAUSE CONSIDERABLE WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS. THERE MAY
ALSO BE RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT BELIEVE THIS RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH LIMITED EFFECT ON
VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS LAMP INDICATED GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE
NAM MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. THE NAM
AND GFS MOS...EVEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STRONG CAA AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
DURING THE REST OF MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 1244 AM EST MON MAR  3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. DRY BUT COLDER
WEATHER EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ARCTIC AIR
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NATION WHERE TEMPERATURES AT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH ARE
WELL BELOW ZERO OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA AND IOWA. EARLIER
THIS EVENING AT 23Z TEXAS HAD A TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM 92 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE TO 8 DEGREES IN THE PANHANDLE!

THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
BUT WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT OVER AND SPILL DOWN TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND LEAD TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN THE DAY JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT
WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE
DAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND MIDDAY IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY FALL
WITH LOWER 40S ENTERING THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY EARLY EVENING.
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AS THE COLD AIR
ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET
REMAINS ACROSS PRIMARILY LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES. AS
SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SLEET MIXED IN FOR LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD. WITH THE SHORT TIME
FROM OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
FALLING AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERTAKES THE REGION WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ALONG THE NC LINE AND LOWER 30S IN THE CSRA.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO PUSHES MOISTURE NORTHWARD. COLD AIR
ADVECTION REMAINING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO AROUND 50 IN THE CSRA.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN MODERATELY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ONWARD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING
THE LOW CROSSING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GULF STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD REACHING
THE FL PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS CURRENTLY THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW RAPIDLY
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW MUCH SLOWER KEEPING IT
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE REMAINED CONSERVATIVE
AND MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN MODEL CHANGES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS
KEEPING CONFIDENCE LOW. MODELS AGREE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE 19Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME. MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS SREF
GUIDANCE MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE 23Z HRRR SHOWED AN IFR CEILING SPREADING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN.
HOWEVER...NEITHER THE NAM/GFS SHOWED ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE CLOUDS
LATER THIS MORNING. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV AND MET MOS AND MAINTAINED
VFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE OF THE
INCONSISTENT HRRR GUIDANCE. MIXING SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST KCAE 88D VAD WIND PROFILE
INDICATED SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. VWP CURRENTLY SHOWS A
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST 40 TO 45 KT JET FROM 1K FT AND ABOVE. THE NAM
INDICATED SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 14Z
WHEN HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BECOME MORE DOMINATE. LATER IN THE
DAY...THE NAM AND GFS MOS DIFFERED WITH THE NAM SHOWING IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS MOS INDICATED LOW-END VFR
OR MVFR CEILINGS. WE AVERAGED THIS GUIDANCE AND FORECASTED MVFR
CEILINGS. THE NAM MOS MAY BE TOO LOW WITH ITS CEILING FORECAST
BECAUSE CONSIDERABLE WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS. THERE MAY
ALSO BE RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT BELIEVE THIS RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH LIMITED EFFECT ON
VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS LAMP INDICATED GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE
NAM MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. THE NAM
AND GFS MOS...EVEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STRONG CAA AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
DURING THE REST OF MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 901 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...
256 PM CST

SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE FIRST
ARRIVING TONIGHT.  THE SECOND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK. A BRIEF
WARM UP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING FOR THE WEEKEND.  HOWEVER...TEMPS REBOUND MONDAY WITH DARE
I SAY NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED?

REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TRICKY FORECAST PERIOD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.  CONFIDENT THAT THE
ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE SNOW AT SOME POINT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW AND FOR HOW
LONG.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND IT
WILL SHIFT EAST AND FILL TONIGHT. ALOFT THE SHORTWAVE THAT FORCED
SNOW THIS MORNING IS TO OUR EAST WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH
TEXAS.  THE NEXT TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES AND IT WILL
PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.

A LARGE HIGH IS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND IT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK WAVE MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE FEATURES
A DEEP LAYER OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT COINCIDES WITH A SATURATED
LAYER.  HOWEVER...THE SATURATED LAYER IS WARMER THAN THE IDEAL
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...BUT IT IS BELOW 0C. SNOW IS EXPECTED...BUT
IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE FORCING INDICATES.  ALSO
PUSHED THE TIMING OF THE SNOW BACK BY A FEW HOURS.  THE NAM12 LOOKS
TOO FAST WHILE THE RAP IS TOO SLOW. AS SUCH USED OUR LOCAL WRF MODEL
FOR TIMING...AND AMOUNTS AS THE WRF SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE PRECIP.  EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF I-88 AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
SOUTH OF I-88.  THE 4 INCH AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED ABOUT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING 2 TO 3 INCHES. NOTE THESE VALUES ARE LESS THAN THE
MAJORITY OF COBB OUTPUT...AND THIS IS DUE TO THE CONCERNS ABOUT SNOW
GROWTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF FORCING...DECIDED TO
SLIGHTLY RAISE SNOWFALL TOTALS.

SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN IL...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3AM.  THE BAND WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
MID MORNING...AND MAY SHIFT QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. THE
LOCAL WRF INDICATED THE BAND WOULD SHIFT SOUTH QUICKLY...BUT DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT FAST.  SNOW IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  FORCING WEAKENS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SO EXPECTING THE
SNOW SOUTH OF I-80 TO BE SLOW AND STEADY.

IN ADDITION TO THE BAND OF SNOW...MAY SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW RIGHT NOW.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST.
DELTA T/S ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THE THICK ICE COVER WILL LIMIT
MIXING. BUT INCLUDED A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN PERIODS OF FLURRIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE JUMPED WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WEST.
HOWEVER THINKING WE WILL STILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. SO ENDED UP WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS...AND TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS ALONG THE LAKE.  TEMPS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TOMORROW WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL TO THE MID TEENS OVER NW INDIANA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WHILE
ITS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 30.  WINDS TURN SOUTH
BEHIND THE HIGH AND WAA KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR.  HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING AND POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 40S!

A SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH ITS SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT.  PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL.
HAVE IT STARTING AS RAIN AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS THE COLD
AIR FUNNELS BACK IN.  850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -3C AND THE
MAIN POINT IS THE COLD AIR REALLY IS NOT THAT COLD AND IT WILL NOT
LAST.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S.

EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
AND THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLDER AIR SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WARM UP.  SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY WITH  HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.  THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY HELP TEMPS BECOME NORMAL IF
NOT ABOVE NORMAL.  RAISED ALLBLEND TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO AND
STILL MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.  HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS FEATURES
PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JEE

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* SNOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND LASTS INTO EARLY WED MORNING...AT
  LEAST PERIODIC IFR/POSSIBLE BRIEF LIFR EXPECTED
* ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS MID-MORNING...SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE
  THROUGH DAY WEDNESDAY
* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL LOOKS SLATED TO BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SNOW COULD FALL AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP FOR A FEW HOURS
WITH IFR VSBY LIKELY AND BRIEF LIFR POSSIBLE. ACCUMS IN THE 1 TO
3 INCH RANGE LOOK LIKELY. MAIN ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD SHIFT
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING...HOWEVER
SOME OCNL VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NE FLOW CONTINUES OFF THE LAKE.
PARAMETERS APPEAR UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NE IL AS FLOW CONTINUES OFF THE LAKE.

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW START TIME AND INTENSITY LATE
  TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING
* LOW CONFIDENCE SNOW ENDING TIME WED MORNING AND LINGERING -SN OR
  FLURRY CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS WED AFTERNOON
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR PROBABLE.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF -SN.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR PROBABLE.

IZZI

&&

.MARINE...
224 PM CST

THE MAIN STORY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IS LIKELY THE ICE COVERAGE WHICH
IS NOW NEAR 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE LAKE...THE HIGHEST SO FAR THIS
SEASON. WE WILL START TO SEE SOME DAYS WITH TEMPERATURE PUSHING THE
FREEZING MARK DURING THE AFTERNOONS...INCLUDING FRIDAY AND A FEW
DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A SLOW MELT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH
WESTERLY WINDS TURNING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A RIDGE AXIS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS
TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY...AND THEN SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT DOES
TIGHTEN SOME ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESHENING UP INTO THE 15 TO 25
KT RANGE...PERHAPS A FEW 30 KT GUSTS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 540 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...
256 PM CST

SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE FIRST
ARRIVING TONIGHT.  THE SECOND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK. A BRIEF
WARM UP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING FOR THE WEEKEND.  HOWEVER...TEMPS REBOUND MONDAY WITH DARE
I SAY NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED?

REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TRICKY FORECAST PERIOD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.  CONFIDENT THAT THE
ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE SNOW AT SOME POINT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW AND FOR HOW
LONG.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND IT
WILL SHIFT EAST AND FILL TONIGHT. ALOFT THE SHORTWAVE THAT FORCED
SNOW THIS MORNING IS TO OUR EAST WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH
TEXAS.  THE NEXT TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES AND IT WILL
PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.

A LARGE HIGH IS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND IT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK WAVE MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE FEATURES
A DEEP LAYER OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT COINCIDES WITH A SATURATED
LAYER.  HOWEVER...THE SATURATED LAYER IS WARMER THAN THE IDEAL
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...BUT IT IS BELOW 0C. SNOW IS EXPECTED...BUT
IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE FORCING INDICATES.  ALSO
PUSHED THE TIMING OF THE SNOW BACK BY A FEW HOURS.  THE NAM12 LOOKS
TOO FAST WHILE THE RAP IS TOO SLOW. AS SUCH USED OUR LOCAL WRF MODEL
FOR TIMING...AND AMOUNTS AS THE WRF SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE PRECIP.  EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF I-88 AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
SOUTH OF I-88.  THE 4 INCH AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED ABOUT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING 2 TO 3 INCHES. NOTE THESE VALUES ARE LESS THAN THE
MAJORITY OF COBB OUTPUT...AND THIS IS DUE TO THE CONCERNS ABOUT SNOW
GROWTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF FORCING...DECIDED TO
SLIGHTLY RAISE SNOWFALL TOTALS.

SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN IL...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3AM.  THE BAND WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
MID MORNING...AND MAY SHIFT QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. THE
LOCAL WRF INDICATED THE BAND WOULD SHIFT SOUTH QUICKLY...BUT DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT FAST.  SNOW IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  FORCING WEAKENS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SO EXPECTING THE
SNOW SOUTH OF I-80 TO BE SLOW AND STEADY.

IN ADDITION TO THE BAND OF SNOW...MAY SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW RIGHT NOW.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST.
DELTA T/S ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THE THICK ICE COVER WILL LIMIT
MIXING. BUT INCLUDED A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN PERIODS OF FLURRIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE JUMPED WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WEST.
HOWEVER THINKING WE WILL STILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. SO ENDED UP WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS...AND TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS ALONG THE LAKE.  TEMPS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TOMORROW WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL TO THE MID TEENS OVER NW INDIANA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WHILE
ITS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 30.  WINDS TURN SOUTH
BEHIND THE HIGH AND WAA KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR.  HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING AND POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 40S!

A SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH ITS SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT.  PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL.
HAVE IT STARTING AS RAIN AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS THE COLD
AIR FUNNELS BACK IN.  850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -3C AND THE
MAIN POINT IS THE COLD AIR REALLY IS NOT THAT COLD AND IT WILL NOT
LAST.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S.

EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
AND THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLDER AIR SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WARM UP.  SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY WITH  HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.  THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY HELP TEMPS BECOME NORMAL IF
NOT ABOVE NORMAL.  RAISED ALLBLEND TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO AND
STILL MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.  HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS FEATURES
PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JEE

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* SNOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND LASTS INTO EARLY WED MORNING...AT
  LEAST PERIODIC IFR/POSSIBLE BRIEF LIFR EXPECTED
* ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS MID-MORNING...SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE
  THROUGH DAY WEDNESDAY
* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL LOOKS SLATED TO BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SNOW COULD FALL AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP FOR A FEW HOURS
WITH IFR VSBY LIKELY AND BRIEF LIFR POSSIBLE. ACCUMS IN THE 1 TO
3 INCH RANGE LOOK LIKELY. MAIN ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD SHIFT
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING...HOWEVER
SOME OCNL VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NE FLOW CONTINUES OFF THE LAKE.
PARAMETERS APPEAR UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NE IL AS FLOW CONTINUES OFF THE LAKE.

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW START TIME AND INTENSITY LATE
  TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING
* LOW CONFIDENCE SNOW ENDING TIME WED MORNING AND LINGERING -SN OR
  FLURRY CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS WED AFTERNOON
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR PROBABLE.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF -SN.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR PROBABLE.

IZZI

&&

.MARINE...
224 PM CST

THE MAIN STORY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IS LIKELY THE ICE COVERAGE WHICH
IS NOW NEAR 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE LAKE...THE HIGHEST SO FAR THIS
SEASON. WE WILL START TO SEE SOME DAYS WITH TEMPERATURE PUSHING THE
FREEZING MARK DURING THE AFTERNOONS...INCLUDING FRIDAY AND A FEW
DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A SLOW MELT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH
WESTERLY WINDS TURNING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A RIDGE AXIS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS
TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY...AND THEN SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT DOES
TIGHTEN SOME ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESHENING UP INTO THE 15 TO 25
KT RANGE...PERHAPS A FEW 30 KT GUSTS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 406 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...
319 PM CST

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOR SNOW CHANCES...NAMELY TUE
NIGHT AND WED...AND THEN TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS IT
GETS CHALLENGING WEIGHING FACTORS SUCH AS CLOUD COVER...INCREASING
MARCH SUN ANGLE...SNOW COVER...AND FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...

A STRONG AND BARELY MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OF 1035MB IS IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA GOING INTO THIS EVE. WHILE HEIGHTS ARE
SLOWLY RISING ALOFT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WITHIN FAST
PACED WNW FLOW IS APPROACHING THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE ON WATER VAPOR IS SEEN ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WITH MID
CLOUD ALREADY INTO SOUTHWEST WI. THE RAP AND NAM SOLUTIONS OF
SIMULATED WATER VAPOR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND HAVE
INCORPORATED THAT APPROACH INTO SKY COVER FORECASTS TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING CLOUDY BY MID-EVE. THIS WILL MAKE IT TRICKY
AS THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS THIS
EVE BUT THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OFFSET THIS SOME. HAVE LEANED THE
MILDER ROUTE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...WITH A LIMITED DROP-OFF
THIS EVE AND THEN TEMPS CLIMBING OVERNIGHT. HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPS
FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHWEST IN WHERE MID CLOUDS
WILL TAKE THEIR LONGEST TO THICKEN.

THE FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL BE PRIMARILY TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO THIS SHORT WAVE...AS IT OFTEN IS
WITH THESE PROGRESSIVE ARE LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS.
THUS AM NOT TOO EXCITED FOR SNOW INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY DEEP ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SO HAVE
LEANED AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST 12Z NAM AND CLOSER TO THE RAP AND
GLOBAL MODELS...WITH POSSIBLY A DUSTING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-88.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES EARLY IN NORTHEAST
IL...THE DAYTIME TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A GAP BETWEEN WAVES
LIKELY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE. WITH A MUCH WARMER STARTING
POINT THAN TODAY...HIGHS LOOK TO REBOUND MORE TOWARD WHERE THEY
SHOULD BE GIVEN THE 925MB TEMPS...BUT FAR FROM WHERE THEY SHOULD
BE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE HAS A BETTER PATH TO FAVOR OUR AREA AND ALSO
HAS MORE ELONGATED /LONGER LASTING/ FORCING TIED TO ITS UPPER
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENESIS. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE AREA SEEING SNOW...NAMELY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING...AND IT MAKES GOOD SENSE GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. SO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS. THE SNOW LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT
GIVEN TOP DOWN METHOD AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES...WITH MODEST RATES
AT TIMES WHEREVER THAT WEST-TO-EAST BAROCLINIC GRADIENT OF THE
SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS. HAVE 1-2.5 INCHES FORECAST FOR A LOT OF THE
AREA. HOW MUCH A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY GETS INVOLVED WEDNESDAY WILL BE KEY AS WELL...AS THAT
COULD BOOST AMOUNTS  IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. ALSO OF NOTE
IS POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SETUP ONCE AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT FOR NORTHEAST IL. MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS MORNING
WOULD POINT TOWARD NOT AS GOOD OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THERE ARE
SIGNS OF CONVERGENCE AND BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER RH...AND FOR THAT
HAVE CONTINUED POPS ACROSS CHICAGO INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MTF

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGH/LOW TEMPS...WITH LOW CHANCE POSSIBILITIES FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD.

GENERAL WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN SEVERAL WAVES OF
ENERGY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THESE
FEATURES AND RESULTANT QPF. ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO VARY WITH
THE STRENGTH OF A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AND THEN IS A TAD MORE BULLISH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...WHATEVER DEVELOPS SHOULD BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE
AND QUICKLY EXIT...AND WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. PATTERN TRIES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK WHILE SHOWING SIGNS OF SLIGHT WARMING...AS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE LARGE
VORT MAX SHIFTS EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. TAIL END OF THIS
ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AS WINDS
BACK AND WAA OCCURS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WARMER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW THEN POSSIBLE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT MOVE OVER THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH...THIS WARMING WILL BE BRIEF AS COLDER AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...

* LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS...MAINLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
  SLIGHT LAKE MICHIGAN INFLUENCE.

* CHANCE OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR
  CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME TOWARD MORNING.

RATZER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ONLY ANTICIPATE
THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHILE MVFR CEILINGS ALSO PERSIST. THEN AS SOON AS THIS
DISSIPATES...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOWERING TRENDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE SNOW CHANCES ALSO INCREASE. WENT A TAD
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SNOW AND VIS TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS CONDITIONS COULD POSSIBLY BE DUE TO REMAINING
UNCERTAINTY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POSSIBLE HEAVIER SNOW AND LOWER
VIS FOR TIME LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT.

RODRIGUEZ/RATZER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY AND A
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

MDB

&&

.MARINE...
227 PM CST

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS ALL OF LAKE MI THROUGH
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND HELP TO BRING A TRAILING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO...HOWEVER A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE WINDS A TAD TO 10 TO 20 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. FURTHER SOUTH THE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH
TUESDAY EVENING OF THE LAKE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING BACK
ACROSS THE LAKE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATED WITH A GENERAL TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY SOUTH
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
AID IN KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 20 KT.

BEACHLER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 320 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...
319 PM CST

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOR SNOW CHANCES...NAMELY TUE
NIGHT AND WED...AND THEN TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS IT
GETS CHALLENGING WEIGHING FACTORS SUCH AS CLOUD COVER...INCREASING
MARCH SUN ANGLE...SNOW COVER...AND FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...

A STRONG AND BARELY MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OF 1035MB IS IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA GOING INTO THIS EVE. WHILE HEIGHTS ARE
SLOWLY RISING ALOFT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WITHIN FAST
PACED WNW FLOW IS APPROACHING THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE ON WATER VAPOR IS SEEN ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WITH MID
CLOUD ALREADY INTO SOUTHWEST WI. THE RAP AND NAM SOLUTIONS OF
SIMULATED WATER VAPOR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND HAVE
INCORPORATED THAT APPROACH INTO SKY COVER FORECASTS TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING CLOUDY BY MID-EVE. THIS WILL MAKE IT TRICKY
AS THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS THIS
EVE BUT THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OFFSET THIS SOME. HAVE LEANED THE
MILDER ROUTE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...WITH A LIMITED DROP-OFF
THIS EVE AND THEN TEMPS CLIMBING OVERNIGHT. HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPS
FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHWEST IN WHERE MID CLOUDS
WILL TAKE THEIR LONGEST TO THICKEN.

THE FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL BE PRIMARILY TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO THIS SHORT WAVE...AS IT OFTEN IS
WITH THESE PROGRESSIVE ARE LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS.
THUS AM NOT TOO EXCITED FOR SNOW INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY DEEP ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SO HAVE
LEANED AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST 12Z NAM AND CLOSER TO THE RAP AND
GLOBAL MODELS...WITH POSSIBLY A DUSTING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-88.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES EARLY IN NORTHEAST
IL...THE DAYTIME TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A GAP BETWEEN WAVES
LIKELY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE. WITH A MUCH WARMER STARTING
POINT THAN TODAY...HIGHS LOOK TO REBOUND MORE TOWARD WHERE THEY
SHOULD BE GIVEN THE 925MB TEMPS...BUT FAR FROM WHERE THEY SHOULD
BE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE HAS A BETTER PATH TO FAVOR OUR AREA AND ALSO
HAS MORE ELONGATED /LONGER LASTING/ FORCING TIED TO ITS UPPER
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENESIS. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE AREA SEEING SNOW...NAMELY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING...AND IT MAKES GOOD SENSE GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. SO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS. THE SNOW LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT
GIVEN TOP DOWN METHOD AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES...WITH MODEST RATES
AT TIMES WHEREVER THAT WEST-TO-EAST BAROCLINIC GRADIENT OF THE
SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS. HAVE 1-2.5 INCHES FORECAST FOR A LOT OF THE
AREA. HOW MUCH A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY GETS INVOLVED WEDNESDAY WILL BE KEY AS WELL...AS THAT
COULD BOOST AMOUNTS  IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. ALSO OF NOTE
IS POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SETUP ONCE AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT FOR NORTHEAST IL. MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS MORNING
WOULD POINT TOWARD NOT AS GOOD OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THERE ARE
SIGNS OF CONVERGENCE AND BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER RH...AND FOR THAT
HAVE CONTINUED POPS ACROSS CHICAGO INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MTF

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGH/LOW TEMPS...WITH LOW CHANCE POSSIBILITIES FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD.

GENERAL WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN SEVERAL WAVES OF
ENERGY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THESE
FEATURES AND RESULTANT QPF. ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO VARY WITH
THE STRENGTH OF A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AND THEN IS A TAD MORE BULLISH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...WHATEVER DEVELOPS SHOULD BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE
AND QUICKLY EXIT...AND WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. PATTERN TRIES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK WHILE SHOWING SIGNS OF SLIGHT WARMING...AS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE LARGE
VORT MAX SHIFTS EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. TAIL END OF THIS
ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AS WINDS
BACK AND WAA OCCURS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WARMER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW THEN POSSIBLE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT MOVE OVER THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH...THIS WARMING WILL BE BRIEF AS COLDER AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* LIGHT EASTERLY WIND.

* SNOW CHANCES INCREASING TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
  POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ONLY ANTICIPATE
THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHILE MVFR CEILINGS ALSO PERSIST. THEN AS SOON AS THIS
DISSIPATES...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOWERING TRENDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE SNOW CHANCES ALSO INCREASE. WENT A TAD
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SNOW AND VIS TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS CONDITIONS COULD POSSIBLY BE DUE TO REMAINING
UNCERTAINTY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POSSIBLE HEAVIER SNOW AND LOWER
VIS FOR TIME LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY AND A
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

MDB

&&

.MARINE...
227 PM CST

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS ALL OF LAKE MI THROUGH
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND HELP TO BRING A TRAILING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO...HOWEVER A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE WINDS A TAD TO 10 TO 20 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. FURTHER SOUTH THE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH
TUESDAY EVENING OF THE LAKE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING BACK
ACROSS THE LAKE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATED WITH A GENERAL TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY SOUTH
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
AID IN KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 20 KT.

BEACHLER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1200 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...
258 PM CST

THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE FORECAST WAS ON THE DEGREE OF THE
COLD THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AT RECORD LEVELS IN SOME PLACES...AND
THEN SNOW CHANCES THIS FIRST WEEK OF METEOROLOGICAL "SPRING".

TONIGHT...

THE LOCAL AREA FINDS ITSELF SQUEEZED BETWEEN A VERY DEEP UPPER
LOW ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS PROGRESSING DUE EAST AND
CREATING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND ICE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS FEATURE ALSO
WILL CONTINUE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVE WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 15K FT. BUT ASIDE FROM THAT...THE CONFLUENCE
ALOFT OVER THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
TRANQUIL. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAVE
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY WITH LESS CONVERGENCE AND JUST DEEPER DRY
AIR ADVECTION. WHILE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED AT TIMES
TONIGHT AND EVEN MONDAY MORNING INTO FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA...ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY LIGHT.

WITH THE CENTER OF THE 1039MB HIGH REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ENOUGH OF A SPEED FOR
RARE MARCH WIND CHILL CONCERNS...BUT NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
FORTITUDE OF THIS COOL SEASON. THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD HELP TO OFFSET RAPID EVE COOLING...BUT A SLOW STEADY DROP
IS ANTICIPATED. OUTSIDE OF CHICAGO...LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS. SEE THE CLIMATE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE. THE WIND CHILLS FALL OUT AT -15 TO -25 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND THE NORTH AND FAR WEST SIDES OF THE CHICAGO METRO
WHICH IS WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY.

MONDAY...

THE HIGH WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE. IT
IS ALWAYS A BATTLE THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH COLD AIR OVER SNOW COVER
VERSUS THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE. GIVEN THE 925MB TEMPS OF -16C
FORECAST AND OVER SNOW COVER...CLIMATOLOGICALLY THIS WOULD FAVOR
FORECAST HIGH IN THE TEENS AND HAVE GONE THAT ROUTE. AGAIN SEE THE
CLIMATE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE RECORD LOW MAXS. CLOUDS LOOK TO
BE ON THE INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT AND THAT SHOULD KEEP MINS
UP FROM WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE ANOTHER NIGHT BELOW ZERO IN MANY
PLACES. IF CLOUDS DO COME IN SLOWER DURING THE EVE THAT COULD LEAD
TO A MORE RAPID DROP...BUT RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER IS
FAIRLY HIGH.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...

THE UNSETTLED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS TO PREVAIL DURING
MIDWEEK. WITH THE QUICK PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE
SYSTEMS...NAMELY EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY...IT IS NOT SURPRISING TO SEE CONTINUED MODEL
SPREAD. BELIEVE THAT THE FIRST DISTURBANCE EARLY TUESDAY WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH GIVEN THE DRY RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS SOMEWHAT SOUTH IN ITS
WAKE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WED SYSTEM A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE TO IMPACT THE AREA. AGAIN THERE IS LITTLE
LOW-LEVEL INFLUENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND DEEP MOISTURE VALUES LOOK
LOW...SO ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD APPEAR MINOR IF IT WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...BUT SOMETHING THAT COULD HAVE IMPACTS DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING. MODEL SPREAD REALLY GETS LARGE BEYOND THAT AND SO HAVE
NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS. HAVE INCREASED THEM SOMEWHAT
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY. BESIDES THE FACT IT ALWAYS SNOWS
ON SATURDAY /PARTIALLY JOKING/...THE EC AND GEM BOTH HAVE A TIGHT
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SIMILAR TO THIS PAST
SATURDAY NIGHTS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH LIMITED DURATION
PERIODS OF RETURN FLOW. THERE DOES STILL APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW OF
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ON FRIDAY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS LOOKED
AT...WHICH WOULD BE THE RETURN FLOW PERIOD AHEAD OF A POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEKEND SYSTEM. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY MINIMAL IN MOST
FORECAST ELEMENTS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

MTF

&&

.CLIMATE...
258 PM CST

THE FOLLOWING RECORDS INDICATED BY AN (*) ARE FORECAST TO BE
BROKEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY:

           MARCH 3RD RECORD LOW      MARCH 3RD RECORD LOW MAX
CHICAGO:         -6 (1873)                      8 (1873)
ROCKFORD:        -4 (2002)*                    18 (2002)*

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS MID-MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY
  FAVORING A NORTHEAST DIRECTION.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER TODAY. STEADY NORTH TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH. WINDS
WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID MORNING OR SO INLAND
OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE INFLUENCES MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR A STEADIER NORTHEAST WIND AT MDW/GYY AND POSSIBLY ORD DESPITE
THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVERAGE. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KT
REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION/LAKE INFLUENCE. VFR WILL PREVAIL BUT THERE
MAY BE FEW-SCT STRATO CU OFF THE LAKE BUT THIS SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH...NOT TOO MENTION THE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF ICE ON THE LAKE.
OTHERWISE HIGH CIRRUS WITH SOME MID CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY GOING INTO THE EVENING.

MDB


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS MID-MORNING THROUGH
  AFTERNOON.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY AND A
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

RATZER

&&

.MARINE...
129 PM CST

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE...AS A STOUT AND EXPANSIVE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE LAKE...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCAL WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED DIFFERENCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TONIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL ABATE ON MONDAY...LIKELY BECOMING UNDER 10 KT OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER
HEAD. SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENTS
ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011 UNTIL 9
     AM MONDAY.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020 UNTIL 9
     AM MONDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1112 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 835 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2014

Storm system well to our south continues to make progress across
the Southern Plains this evening. A large shield of precipitation
extends northeast from the upper wave, which was located over the
Panhandle of Texas. On the northern periphery of the precipitation
there was mainly snow being reported over parts of south central
and southeast Illinois, with a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain
and snow over extreme southern Illinois into western Ky. The bulk
of the significant precip will be occurring tonight south of I70
as another sprawling Arctic air mass settles southeast into the
region through Monday. Will be cancelling the northern portion of
the Winter Storm warning over southeast Illinois and if precip trends
continue to suggest a southeast shift in the heavier bands of snow
and sleet, we may be able to cancel most if not all of the warning
over the far southeast later tonight.

Further to the northwest, the wind chill advisory looks fine at
this point, but satellite data showing quite a bit of cirrus well
off to our northwest, so that may have an affect on our early
morning lows. Forecast soundings off the RAP and the latest NAM-
WRF suggest the thicker cirrus shield will shift into parts of
southeast Illinois by morning, so will not make any changes to the
wind chill headlines for the overnight hours. After we make the
adjustment to the Winter Storm Warning over the southeast counties,
we will send out an updated ZFP.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1105 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2014

VFR conditions are expected to prevail thru this forecast period.
Other than a rather thick band of cirrus across central thru
east central IL into the early morning hours, no significant
aviation concerns are expected as high pressure builds in from
the northwest. Forecast soundings indicate the cirrus will gradually
work its way east of our area by Monday morning. Surface winds will
be out a northerly direction at 8 to 15 kts overnight and around
10 kts during the daylight hours Monday.

Smith
&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
High pressure ridge axis over the center of the country trying to
push the current storm further out of the area, but the main
portion of the wave still in Arkansas. The sfc low, however, is
progged to move just south of the Ohio River Valley. The storm
will still produce plenty of precip issues, though most of
them, including the majority of the deformation zone enhancement,
will fall south of ILX this evening. Though much of the weather
has ended across the northern tier of the CWA, redeveloping snow
across the center of the state, and still plenty of
snow/sleet/fzra mix in the southeast is keeping some of the
headlines active this afternoon. Models now moving the precip out
of the area a little sooner, and as long as the low continues on
its forecast track SE of the forecast area, an early cancellation
is anticipated. Into the rest of the forecast, the models are just
fine with the overall pattern, but off with the timing of the next
couple waves. These systems are not big precip makers at this
point, and the forecast is mostly quiet.

SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow...
Winter storm wrapping up this evening, but still producing plenty
of precip for the southeast. Another 1 to 3 inches of snow
anticipated in the warning area, in addition to slowly
transitioning sleet to snow. FA should be dry by morning. IN the
meantime, temperatures dropping quickly behind the system in areas
to the NW where some clearing is anticipated. Negative single
digit temps North of the I-55 corridor and winds staying up in
7-15 kt range through the overnight resulting in wind chills from
-15 to -20 degrees. Wind Chill Advisory is out as a result for the
overnight hours and a very cold start to Monday. High pressure
ridge moving closer through the day, and winds will go light and
variable before switching back around to having a more southerly
component. Although tomorrow night will also be cold, it will
remain above zero, in the positive single digits.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
More cold air for the extended. Mon-Thursday still well below
freezing. Although Friday is showing signs of a warm up, but the
WAA looks a bit weak at this point. Suspicious that the MOS is
being pulled too much by guidance upwards, considering that it has
cooled off again with this synoptic run. Brief waves bringing
quick shot of precip possibly on Wed across the north, with only
slight chc pops north of I-74 corridor from GBG to PIA. ECMWF and
GFS still not in agreement with the next wave btwn Thursday and
Saturday night. GFS quicker and divided the energy out ahead of a
trof digging in over the desert SW. GFS sends two quick shots of
precip and ECMWF sends only one, along a developing baroclinic
zone, while splitting the flow at 500 mb. Another pattern shift,
and will likely see the models vary quite a bit as time
progresses.

HJS


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ062-063-
066>068-071>073.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 10 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>043-047>051.

&&

$$





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 741 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

ALTHOUGH LIGHT RETURNS ARE INDICATED BY RADAR JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE ACTUALLY REPORTING
PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME SATURATING...
BUT THE LATEST NAM/RAP CONTINUE THE TREND OF MOISTENING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. SO...ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY. LATEST NAM RAOBS SHOW A WARM LAYER OFF THE
SURFACE...SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF MIXED PHASE PRECIPITATION
UNTIL 15Z OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO WITH WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST CWA...SEPARATING AREA OF TEMPS IN THE
LOW 60S FROM AREA OF UPPER 30S.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LARGE AREA
OF CIRRUS APPARENTLY HAVING ONLY SMALL IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SURGE TO THE SOUTH BRINGING MUCH COLDER
AIR TO THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS A PERIOD OF STRONG ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL FROPA...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN
EXCESS OF 100 MB LEAD ME TO THINK THAT APART FROM DEVELOPING A LOW
STRATUS DECK AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG...PRECIPITATION WILL BE
UNLIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE 5Z. STRONG H65 TO H6 FRONTAL ZONE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH AFTER 06Z. ALTHOUGH THIS DOES APPEAR TO
BE SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING PER DIV
Q/PV FIELDS...JET STREAK TO THE NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY AID
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE FORCED ASCENT. EPV* AROUND H6 INDICATES
INSTABILITY MAY BE RELEASED WITH ANY FRONTAL CIRCULATION THAT
DEVELOPS...SO EVEN THOUGH DURATION WILL BE RATHER BRIEF SNOWFALL
RATES MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH IN SOME AREAS. FRONTAL ZONE/SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE QUICK TO DEPART THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO END QUICKLY AFTER 14Z. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH A FEW AREAS AROUND 2 OR
3 INCHES WHEREVER STRONG FRONTAL BAND DEVELOPS.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A CONCERN AS WARM LAYER WILL BE PRESENT
INITIALLY BEFORE WET BULB PROCESSES/CAA ADVECTION CREATE A PROFILE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW. A BRIEF WINDOW OF RAIN/IP/FZRA MAY OCCUR
BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...DO NOT THINK THIS WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT DUE TO BRIEF DURATION. AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS...LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD LAYER MAY BRING A PERIOD OF -FZDZ
BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO TOO LOW
TO CONSIDER ANY KIND OF WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH BY MIDDAY AND GOOD WAA ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT MILD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE 60S (POSSIBLY AROUND 70F). NOT SURE WHAT HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST OR POTENTIAL (LIGHT) SNOW PACK
WILL HAVE...SO DIDNT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER GREAT
BASIN/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT REGION DURING THESE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AND PRECIP
CHANCES ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT...ENDING SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON ADVERTISING GOOD FORCING/MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAKER FORCING EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF OUR CWA. STAYED WITH TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT LIKELY
POPS IN EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS IN KS/NE.
SHOULD MAINLY BE A RAIN-SNOW CHANGE OVER...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLIMATOLOGICAL SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS GIVE US AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PART OF
CWA. NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE A
RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY...RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATION OF AIR MASS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
(HIGHS 55-66F) ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. A LITTLE MORE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE WESTERN US/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH COULD BRING COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO
REGION. STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND 50-55F FOR HIGHS (USING
CONSENSUS). NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON TUESDAY FORECAST BASED ON
SPREAD IN MODELS AT THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 415 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR TAFS TONIGHT WILL BE THE TIMING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING IN AND THE START OF THE SNOWFALL. A COLD FRONT HAS
ALREADY PROGRESSED THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND IT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH KGLD IN THE NEXT HOUR. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT KGLD WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS AROUND 22
KTS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE RAP AND NAM MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO BOTH TERMINALS BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
FOG/HAZE EARLY THIS EVENING AROUND 03Z/04Z. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
NOT GO TOO STRONG WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SO ONLY REDUCED IT TO
5SM. BEHIND THE FRONT...ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER 09Z WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY. THIS
IS A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING WAVE...SO CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR
AROUND 14Z/15Z AND LASTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...ALW







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 427 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO WITH WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST CWA...SEPARATING AREA OF TEMPS IN THE
LOW 60S FROM AREA OF UPPER 30S.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LARGE AREA
OF CIRRUS APPARENTLY HAVING ONLY SMALL IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SURGE TO THE SOUTH BRINGING MUCH COLDER
AIR TO THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS A PERIOD OF STRONG ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL FROPA...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN
EXCESS OF 100 MB LEAD ME TO THINK THAT APART FROM DEVELOPING A LOW
STRATUS DECK AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG...PRECIPITATION WILL BE
UNLIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE 5Z. STRONG H65 TO H6 FRONTAL ZONE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH AFTER 06Z. ALTHOUGH THIS DOES APPEAR TO
BE SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING PER DIV
Q/PV FIELDS...JET STREAK TO THE NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY AID
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE FORCED ASCENT. EPV* AROUND H6 INDICATES
INSTABILITY MAY BE RELEASED WITH ANY FRONTAL CIRCULATION THAT
DEVELOPS...SO EVEN THOUGH DURATION WILL BE RATHER BRIEF SNOWFALL
RATES MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH IN SOME AREAS. FRONTAL ZONE/SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE QUICK TO DEPART THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO END QUICKLY AFTER 14Z. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH A FEW AREAS AROUND 2 OR
3 INCHES WHEREVER STRONG FRONTAL BAND DEVELOPS.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A CONCERN AS WARM LAYER WILL BE PRESENT
INITIALLY BEFORE WET BULB PROCESSES/CAA ADVECTION CREATE A PROFILE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW. A BRIEF WINDOW OF RAIN/IP/FZRA MAY OCCUR
BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...DO NOT THINK THIS WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT DUE TO BRIEF DURATION. AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS...LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD LAYER MAY BRING A PERIOD OF -FZDZ
BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO TOO LOW
TO CONSIDER ANY KIND OF WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH BY MIDDAY AND GOOD WAA ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT MILD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE 60S (POSSIBLY AROUND 70F). NOT SURE WHAT HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST OR POTENTIAL (LIGHT) SNOW PACK
WILL HAVE...SO DIDNT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER GREAT
BASIN/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT REGION DURING THESE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AND PRECIP
CHANCES ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT...ENDING SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON ADVERTISING GOOD FORCING/MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAKER FORCING EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF OUR CWA. STAYED WITH TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT LIKELY
POPS IN EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS IN KS/NE.
SHOULD MAINLY BE A RAIN-SNOW CHANGE OVER...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLIMATOLOGICAL SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS GIVE US AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PART OF
CWA. NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE A
RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY...RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATION OF AIR MASS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
(HIGHS 55-66F) ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. A LITTLE MORE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE WESTERN US/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH COULD BRING COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO
REGION. STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND 50-55F FOR HIGHS (USING
CONSENSUS). NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON TUESDAY FORECAST BASED ON
SPREAD IN MODELS AT THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 415 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR TAFS TONIGHT WILL BE THE TIMING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING IN AND THE START OF THE SNOWFALL. A COLD FRONT HAS
ALREADY PROGRESSED THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND IT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH KGLD IN THE NEXT HOUR. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT KGLD WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS AROUND 22
KTS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE RAP AND NAM MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO BOTH TERMINALS BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
FOG/HAZE EARLY THIS EVENING AROUND 03Z/04Z. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
NOT GO TOO STRONG WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SO ONLY REDUCED IT TO
5SM. BEHIND THE FRONT...ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER 09Z WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY. THIS
IS A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING WAVE...SO CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR
AROUND 14Z/15Z AND LASTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...ALW







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 238 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014

A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS WEEK. LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TO
BEGIN THE WEEK IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH A ZONAL TO SUBTLE LONGWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE
EAST...PLACING OUR REGION IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. BELOW THIS...WILL SEE WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST
TOMORROW. LATE TOMORROW A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

TODAY...MORNING BEGAN QUITE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH
AT A FEW SITES. CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY DISSIPATE. MODEL
OUTPUT FROM GFS AND NAM ESPECIALLY GENERALLY NOT USEFUL FOR NEAR
SURFACE PARAMETERS DUE TO SNOW DEPTH BEING INITIALIZED MUCH TOO
DEEP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. RAP DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM THIS...SO LEANED TOWARDS RAP/ECMWF FOR
TEMPS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHERE THERE IS SNOW AND SOME CLOUD COVER
ACROSS GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES TEMPS HAVE BEEN MUCH
COLDER...BUT ELSEWHERE A PLEASANT AND WARMER DAY AFTER A BITTER
COLD WEEKEND.

TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND 850MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO RISE WILL
MAKE FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH...LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN A FEW SPOTS.
HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN PARTS OF
ADJACENT COLORADO/KANSAS COUNTIES GENERALLY BASED OFF OF THE RAP
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TRENDS. THOUGH BELIEVE SOME OF THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN SREF/NAM ARE DUE TO SNOW FIELD...WITH RAP ALSO
HINTING AT A GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH AT
LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. MUCH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WINDS...AND IF
WINDS REMAIN UP AROUND 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT MIGHT NOT SEE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WHATSOEVER.

WEDNESDAY...SUNNY AND WARM FOR THE MOST PART. HIGHS APPROACHING 60
IN MOST SPOTS AS 850MB TEMPS REACH AROUND 10C...WITH ECMWF AND GEM
GOING EVEN WARMER. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BECOMING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING...QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE  TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING. QUICKER END OF GUIDANCE ACTUALLY BRINGS FRONT IN A
LITTLE EARLIER (POSSIBLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON)...THOUGH THIS WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THESE PERIODS. CAA IS
FAIRLY WEAK BEHIND THIS FRONT AND BEST COOLING MODELS ARE SHOWING
IS WITH PRECIP BAND (LIKELY DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES). CURRENT
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
(AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT) MOVING OVER OUR CWA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WED MORNING. MODEL QPF FIELDS GENERALLY MATCH ON TIMING ON AREA OF
PRECIP MOVING OVER OUR CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO I TRENDED POPS
UP DURING THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD...AND QUICKLY ENDED POPS DURING
THE WED MORNING PERIOD.

REGARDING PRECIP TYPE...VERY LITTLE E-SE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO IM NOT SEEING A LOT
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. A FEW SOUNDINGS TRY
TO SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION IN OUR SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER WITH VERY
BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE NW FLOW OVERTAKES REGION OR MAIN AREA OF
PRECIP MOVES IN IM NOT SEEING THIS BEING WORTH A MENTION. WHILE
INITIALLY THERE IS A WARM LAYER...SATURATION ABOVE THIS LAYER WILL
OCCUR WHEN MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVES IN AND TEMPERATURE (AND BY THAT
POINT WEAK CAA/EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES HAVE REMOVED THIS WARM LAYER
FROM THE EQUATION)...SO SLEET IS UNLIKELY. PROFILES GENERALLY SHOW
CLEAN RAIN-SNOW TRANSITION WITH MINIMAL CAA IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SO I WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED FZDZ/FZRA AND LEFT TYPE AS
RAIN/SNOW.

DUE TO RELIANCE ON EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES FOR RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY. CURRENT GUIDANCE AND FORECAST TIMING GENERALLY
SHOWS SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE (FAIRLY WET
AND SLUSHY).

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION
AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT ALLOWING FOR QUICK RETURN OF
MILD TEMPS/DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM UP CONSIDERABLY
THURSDAY WITH MEX/ECE SHOWING HIGHS AROUND 70F. H85 TEMPS
GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MID 60S-LOW 70S (DEPENDING ON WHICH END OF
GUIDANCE YOU CHOOSE) USING STANDARD BIAS. I TRENDED TEMPS UP
ACROSS THE CWA TO UPPER 60S THURSDAY...AND COULD STILL BE A LITTLE
LOW COMPARED TO WARMER END OF GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...NEXT QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS BACK TO OUR CWA. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN
EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON OVERALL TRENDS/CONSENSUS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WHILE THERE IS RUN-RUN MODEL SPREAD DURING THESE
PERIODS...GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGING (OF SOME FLAVOR)
AND DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MST MON MAR 3 2014

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAG PERIOD AT GLD AND
MCK. WINDS ARE A BIT GUSTY EARLY TODAY GUSTING TO OVER 30KTS AT
GLD...BUT AM EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
DISSIPATE LATE TODAY. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT MCK
TONIGHT LEADING TO MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. BELIEVE MOISTURE
FIELD OF NAM/SREF TO BE OVERDOING THE NEAR-SURFACE
CONDITIONS...BUT IF WINDS CAN GO CALM FOR A FEW HOURS BELIEVE AT
LEAST SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
IFR VIS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JJM







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 156 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2014

...Updated for the long term forecast...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

Tonight:

Some mid to high level clouds will continue tonight in association with
a jet streak passing off to the southeast. Southerly winds will become
SSW/SW after midnight. The downslope winds should lead to higher minimums
for much of the region, except over deeper snowpack. Calling for mid to
upper 20sF by Elkhart to upper single digits to lower teens across the
deeper snowpack (generally along and east of Highway 183).

Tomorrow:

The HRRR is suggesting fog formation tonight, but this is different
than what the WRF is suggesting. Think the model fields might be too
heavily influenced by the model snowpack. If fog does develop, it will
be patchy.

Lee troughing will continue tomorrow. Downslope, compressional warming
is expected ahead of a frontal boundary. This front will traverse the
region after my short-term period ends. A fairly impressive gradient
of maximum temperatures is expected across the forecast area of responsibility.
Low 60sF will be possible across the western zones, where the warmest
850 hPa temperatures are expected along with the strongest downslope
wind component. Have undercut temperature guidance farther east across
the heavier snowpack areas, where low 40sF are possible for highs. Any
precipitation will remain outside of my period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

This extended period will be dominated by a two different upper
level troughs passing through, one on Tuesday night and Wednesday,
and the other one on Friday night and Saturday.

In the nearer term, Tuesday night should be cold with lows in the
mid 20s in the Hays and LaCrosse areas, ranging to the mid 30s down
down in our southwest corner near Elkhart.  I think the front will
be in the I-70 corridor about midnight, with some overrunning
precipitation beginning by midnight, in the form of snow and/or
sleet. Forecast sounding from nearly every model shows a warm
tongue aloft, for the early part of the event. The front will
spill southward through Southwestern and South Central Kansas on
Wednesday, and most of the rest of our forecast area will see some
snow/sleet early Wednesday, changing over to rain by late morning.
The dynamics will be stronger to our north, so 20 to 30 percent
precipitation chances will suffice for us.  Only light QPF amounts
are expected, generally less than 0.03 inch liquid, and perhaps up
to a half inch of snow in any particular location.  Wednesday`s
high temperatures Will range from 39F in Hays to 52F in Johnson
City.

Wednesday night through Friday will see some warming, with the
coolest highs across any accumulation of snow.  Wednesday night
minimum temperatures will still be similar to mins Wednesday
morning, in the mid 20s to lower 30s. There will be a quick warm
up Thursday with southwest surface winds.  Maximum temperatures in
the southwest corner near Ulysses and Elkhart will rise into the
lower to middle 60s, while the east sections from Ellis to
Comanche Counties will only top out in the lower to middle 50s.

There will be some advance clouds moving in Friday, which will knock
down maximum temperatures Friday into the upper 40s north of I-70,
ranging to near 60F down south along the Oklahoma border.  As an
upper wave moves into the plains Friday night, a cold front will
dive southeast from Wyoming. This will bring another round of
snow or rain to Southwest Kansas Friday Night and Saturday. I did
lower some of the 50% Pops from the AllBlend model to 30 and 40
percent, to better match our neighbor`s grids.  Friday night will
see a cool down in low temperatures, dropping to the mid 20s to
lower 30s. Saturday should be significantly colder, with the
clouds and precipitation around.  Highs should only reach the
middle 40s to near 50F on Saturday.

Sunday looks mostly sunny and considerably warmer, with max temps in
the upper 50s near Larned and the middle 60s in the Syracuse area.
Sunday will be sunny and even warmer with max temps in the middle
60s across the forecast area. Minimum temperatures both Saturday
and Sunday mornings will average in the 25F to 30F degree range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

VFR conditions through TAF pd. Some mid to high level clouds, but no
major flight category reductions. Southerly winds 8-12 kt today becoming
southwesterly 6-11 kt overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  11  45  27  44 /   0   0  10  30
GCK  13  52  28  46 /   0   0  10  30
EHA  23  60  33  52 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  15  52  30  50 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  10  45  25  39 /   0   0  20  40
P28  11  40  25  42 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Sugden







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 142 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2014

...Update to short term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

Tonight:

Some mid to high level clouds will continue tonight in association with
a jet streak passing off to the southeast. Southerly winds will become
SSW/SW after midnight. The downslope winds should lead to higher minimums
for much of the region, except over deeper snowpack. Calling for mid to
upper 20sF by Elkhart to upper single digits to lower teens across the
deeper snowpack (generally along and east of Highway 183).

Tomorrow:

The HRRR is suggesting fog formation tonight, but this is different
than what the WRF is suggesting. Think the model fields might be too
heavily influenced by the model snowpack. If fog does develop, it will
be patchy.

Lee troughing will continue tomorrow. Downslope, compressional warming
is expected ahead of a frontal boundary. This front will traverse the
region after my short-term period ends. A fairly impressive gradient
of maximum temperatures is expected across the forecast area of responsibility.
Low 60sF will be possible across the western zones, where the warmest
850 hPa temperatures are expected along with the strongest downslope
wind component. Have undercut temperature guidance farther east across
the heavier snowpack areas, where low 40sF are possible for highs. Any
precipitation will remain outside of my period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

A trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary along the
lee of the Rockies on Tuesday as a cold front moves south into
Nebraska by late day. Ahead of this cold front an area of warm
925mb to 850mb air is forecast to cross western Kansas during the
afternoon. Using the 00z Wednesday 850mb temperatures as a guide
for highs the potential exists for temperatures climb back into
the 60s given full sun. At this time however will only trend
towards these warmer temperatures only across west central and
portions of far western Kansas given the potential for clouds
along with some linger snow cover. Confidence is not high on where
the snow cover will be on Tuesday but using the Dual Pol Storm
Total Accum estimates as a guide will favor keeping some lingering
snow cover southeast of a Liberal to Dodge City to Larned line. In
this area trended afternoon temperatures towards the cooler MET
guidance which suggested highs only in the lower 40s.

Both the NAM and GFS agree in moving a cold front across
southwest Kansas Tuesday night with increasing low and mid level
moisture developing in the wake of this cold front late Tuesday
night/early Wednesday. Despite the agreement in frontal passage
the NAM and GFS disagree on the depth and how quickly the lower
levels saturate. NAM was more aggressive and as a result attempts
to generate some light precipitation between 06z and 12z across
most of southwest Kansas as an upper level trough crosses the
Central High Plains. GFS was not as aggressive and therefore kept
the precipitation chances in west central and portions of north
central Kansas where the better mid level moisture and forcing
will be present prior to 12z Wednesday. Given the uncertainty on
how the lower levels will saturate late Tuesday night will
currently favor the GFS and keep small precipitation chances
mainly across west central and north central Kansas based on where
the better mid level forcing will be located ahead of this mid
week upper level system.

On Wednesday the upper level trough will cross western Kansas
early in the day with subsidence and drying forecast during the
afternoon behind this upper level system. Based on the 00z NAM and
00z GFS timing of this upper level trough will keep a chance of
precipitation going early Wednesday but taper this precipitation
off from west to east, mainly after 18z. Given the net 24hour
change in 950 to 850mb temperatures of roughly 3 to 7C the
previous forecast still look on track with Highs on Wednesday
mainly in the 40s. Lower 50s still look likely across portions of
southwest Kansas. May even be a little warmer than this across far
western Kansas if skies clear sooner.

CRExtendFcst_Init still looks on track with Highs rebounding back
into the upper 50s to mid 60s on Thursday given that 850mb
temperatures warm from the single digits into the teens. Another
cold front crossing into western Kansas on Friday will put an end
to this warming trend with cooler temperatures returning by
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

VFR conditions through TAF pd. Some mid to high level clouds, but no
major flight category reductions. Southerly winds 8-12 kt today becoming
southwesterly 6-11 kt overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  11  45  27  44 /   0   0  10  30
GCK  13  52  28  46 /   0   0  10  30
EHA  23  60  33  52 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  15  52  30  50 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  10  45  25  39 /   0   0  20  40
P28  11  40  25  42 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1234 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014


A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS WEEK. LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TO
BEGIN THE WEEK IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH A ZONAL TO SUBTLE LONGWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE
EAST...PLACING OUR REGION IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. BELOW THIS...WILL SEE WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST
TOMORROW. LATE TOMORROW A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

TODAY...MORNING BEGAN QUITE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH
AT A FEW SITES. CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY DISSIPATE. MODEL
OUTPUT FROM GFS AND NAM ESPECIALLY GENERALLY NOT USEFUL FOR NEAR-SURFACE
PARAMETERS DUE TO SNOW DEPTH BEING INITIALIZED MUCH TOO DEEP ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. RAP DOES NOT SEEM TO BE
SUFFERING FROM THIS...SO LEANED TOWARDS RAP/ECMWF FOR TEMPS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. WHERE THERE IS SNOW AND SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS
GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES TEMPS HAVE BEEN MUCH COLDER...BUT
ELSEWHERE A PLEASANT AND WARMER DAY AFTER A BITTER COLD WEEKEND.

TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND 850MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO RISE WILL
MAKE FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH...LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN A FEW SPOTS.
HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN PARTS OF
ADJACENT COLORADO/KANSAS COUNTIES GENERALLY BASED OFF OF THE RAP
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TRENDS. THOUGH BELIEVE SOME OF THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN SREF/NAM ARE DUE TO SNOW FIELD...WITH RAP ALSO
HINTING AT A GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH AT
LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. MUCH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WINDS...AND IF
WINDS REMAIN UP AROUND 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT MIGHT NOT SEE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WHATSOEVER.

WEDNESDAY...SUNNY AND WARM FOR THE MOST PART. HIGHS APPROACHING 60
IN MOST SPOTS AS 850MB TEMPS REACH AROUND 10C...WITH ECMWF AND GEM
GOING EVEN WARMER. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BECOMING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MST MON MAR 3 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY. FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE LOW WAVE TROUGH
DEEPENING TO THE WEST...PLACING LARGE SCALE LIFT EAST OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA. AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT
SOUTH...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE LIFT TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING THE PRECIP. TO AN END. THIS PATTERN LOOKS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP. FOR THE AREA THAN WHEN MODELS HAD THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
USHERING IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. THE SEASONAL AIR
MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN A WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MST MON MAR 3 2014

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAG PERIOD AT GLD AND
MCK. WINDS ARE A BIT GUSTY EARLY TODAY GUSTING TO OVER 30KTS AT
GLD...BUT AM EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
DISSIPATE LATE TODAY. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT MCK
TONIGHT LEADING TO MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. BELIEVE MOISTURE
FIELD OF NAM/SREF TO BE OVERDOING THE NEAR-SURFACE
CONDITIONS...BUT IF WINDS CAN GO CALM FOR A FEW HOURS BELIEVE AT
LEAST SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
IFR VIS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JJM







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 209 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

TEMPS AND POPS WERE FINE TUNED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. THE
WINTER STORM IS NOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AND ATTM...IT
APPEARS THAT WE WILL CANCEL AND OR ALLOW THE REMAINING COUNTIES TO
EXPIRE AT 4 PM AND THEN ISSUE AN SPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS TO HIGHLIGHT
CONTINUED SLICK ROADS TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1215 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

ONE UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS MORNING TO FINE TUNE TEMPS AND POPS
SO AS TO BETTER TIME THE DEFORMATION BAND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.
SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND HAVE BEEN ABOUT ONE INCH PER HOUR WITH UP
TO 2 INCHES HAVING FALLEN IN THIS BAND IN SOME AREAS NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ATTM...THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LOOK ON
TARGET TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING AS THE SNOW HAS ALREADY
ENDED...BUT DIFFICULT TRAVEL REMAINS...ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY AND
UNTREATED ROADS. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AS SEGMENTS ARE DROPPED
FROM THE WINTER STORM WARNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE TEXT PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH IN
THE SOUTH AND ALSO DROP THE HEAVY SNOW AND THUNDER MENTION. ALSO FINE
TUNED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
IN ADDITION...THE ZONES AND HWO WERE UPDATED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PCPN IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA. WHEN THIS EXITS WE WILL LOSE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
PCPN AND THREAT OF THUNDER. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL THE DEFORMATION ZONES PASSES THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND 06Z NAM12. ALSO
FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS. A MORE COMPLETE UPDATE TO THE TEXT PRODUCTS WILL TAKE PLACE
WITH THE EXPIRATION OF THE FLOOD WATCH AT 7 AM.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BE BREAKING DOWN
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT DRY AIR WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE AND THEIR WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...SO THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNEVENTFUL.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SE TOWARD
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE NOW LESS INCLINED TO CLOSE
OFF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT THEY ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH IT. SURFACE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL INDICATED OVER
THE GULF...BUT IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST THAN IN RUNS OF RECENT DAYS. AS A
RESULT...IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIRECT EFFECTS
FROM THE CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS IT PASSES.

A TRANSITORY RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITHOUT ANY COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.

ANOTHER LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO HEAD IN FROM THE NW DURING THE WEEKEND. GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE ON THE BIG PICTURE FOR THIS...BUT SHOW SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES. TAKING BOTH INTO CONSIDERATION...THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EVEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A BUFFER
OF LOWER POPS ON BOTH SIDES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LAST ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MOVES THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY. FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE ARE NOW ALL SNOW. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS MID AFTERNOON. VFR
WX SHOULD TAKE OVER THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE...BEFORE SETTLING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AND BECOME MORE
EASTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-104-106>109-111-112-114.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ079-080-
083>088-110-113-115>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF/JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...DUSTY









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1225 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

ONE UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS MORNING TO FINE TUNE TEMPS AND POPS
SO AS TO BETTER TIME THE DEFORMATION BAND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.
SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND HAVE BEEN ABOUT ONE INCH PER HOUR WITH UP
TO 2 INCHES HAVING FALLEN IN THIS BAND IN SOME AREAS NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ATTM...THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LOOK ON
TARGET TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING AS THE SNOW HAS ALREADY
ENDED...BUT DIFFICULT TRAVEL REMAINS...ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY AND
UNTREATED ROADS. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AS SEGMENTS ARE DROPPED
FROM THE WINTER STORM WARNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE TEXT PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH IN
THE SOUTH AND ALSO DROP THE HEAVY SNOW AND THUNDER MENTION. ALSO FINE
TUNED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
IN ADDITION...THE ZONES AND HWO WERE UPDATED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PCPN IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA. WHEN THIS EXITS WE WILL LOSE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
PCPN AND THREAT OF THUNDER. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL THE DEFORMATION ZONES PASSES THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND 06Z NAM12. ALSO
FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS. A MORE COMPLETE UPDATE TO THE TEXT PRODUCTS WILL TAKE PLACE
WITH THE EXPIRATION OF THE FLOOD WATCH AT 7 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

...THE REST OF THE NIGHT THROUGH TODAY...

...MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING...

07Z SFC ANALYSIS...AND RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
LOW PRESSURE AREA ROLLING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS IS RUNNING ALONG AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES TO
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE THIN REMAINDER OF THE STATE NOT IN THE DEEP
FREEZE. THE WARM NOSE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...PER OBS AND
THE TRANSITION SHOWING UP IN THE DOPPLER CC LOOP. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN DEPOSITING GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE BEFORE THE SLEET STARTS TO REALLY
ACCUMULATE FOR MOST PLACES. REPORTS OF HALF INCH SLEET TOTALS ARE
STARTING TO COME IN FROM PLACES NORTH AND WEST OF JKL. THE OFFICE
IS PUSHING THAT TOTAL...AS WELL...THOUGH SOME SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN
AT TIMES. THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...AND THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IT HAS LAID ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...IS EVIDENCED BY THE MID TEENS
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY...LOW 20S ALONG THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...AND MID 30S BARELY HOLDING ON OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DEEPER INTO
THE CWA WITH EVEN SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR 20 KTS SHOWING UP IN THE OBS
CLOSER TO THE BLUEGRASS. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONCERN FOR POWER
OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. ON RADAR...AN EXTENDED MASS OF PCPN REMAINS
TO TRANSITION THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHERE IT WILL BE CONVERTED TO
MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW...THOUGH FOR A TIME HEAVY RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. NO CG RETURNS HAVE
SHOWN UP WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN AWHILE...BUT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME IN CLOUD OR CLOUD TO CLOUD BOLTS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVELS AND THE
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SFC SYSTEM GIVING US A LION OF A START
TO MARCH. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND
WILL ROLL NEARLY DUE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EVENING.
THE MODEL AGREEMENT ALOFT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO AGREEMENT AT THE SFC
FOR A COMPLEX ONGOING SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. SO...HAVE INSTEAD LEANED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND THE NAM12 COMBINED WITH
TRENDS AND PCPN PROGRESSION TO GUIDE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

THE HEAVY PCPN...GRADUALLY GOING TO SNOW AND FALLING AT OVER AN INCH
AN HOUR...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BACK
EDGE AND A TAPER REACHING FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY 7 AM AND
SWEEPING EAST BY 10 AM. HAVE USED THIS FOR TIMING THE WORST OF THE
WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS
FOR THIS HEAVY PCPN BAND. THE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
SLEET...THOUGH...SO IN A SENSE WE ARE DODGING A BULLET...BUT THE ROADS
WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM...AS A RESULT. THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS THE LAST OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE...BASICALLY WHAT IS GOING ON
NEAR THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CURRENTLY...PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF AN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE
DRAWN UP THE GRIDS WITH THESE TWO PCPN AREAS AND THEIR PROGRESS IN
MIND. ACCORDINGLY...WILL HOLD ON TO THE WARNINGS AS THEY ARE WITH
SOME CLEAN UP POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z. WILL ALSO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH AS
HEAVY PCPN IN A SEMI-LIQUID FORM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THAT
AREA. EXPECT A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH...BUT JUST AS MUCH SLEET...1/2 TO 1 INCH...THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL BE DELINEATED FURTHER IN THE FORTHCOMING WSW
UPDATES.

USED THE CONSSHORT FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS...BC
VERSION FOR THE LATTER TWO...THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. ALSO DERIVED THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS FROM THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
JUST ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH THE TAPER OF THE SNOW
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.

...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...A
STRONG MASS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CONUS. THIS SET UP SHOULD KEEP KY DRY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS WELL AS USHER IN DRY CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THIS PUSH OF COLDER...DRIER
CANADIAN AIR...EXPECT LOWS TO DROP DOWN WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE MORE
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...TO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT JUST PASSED THROUGH...WINDS WERE GUSTY
IN MANY LOCATIONS. LUCKILY...EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIE DOWN BY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE GOOD AND BAD IMPLICATIONS. ON THE DOWN
SIDE...LIGHTER WINDS...IN ADDITION TO CLEAR SKIES AND A COOLER
AIR MASS OVERHEAD...WILL PROVIDE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...HENCE
THE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. ON THE UP SIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DROP THIS LOW...ANY AMOUNT OF WIND WILL ONLY AID TO THE
WIND CHILL FACTOR...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER THAN THEY
REALLY ARE. THAT BEING SAID...WINDS WILL NOT BE NIL. WE CAN EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS IN THE 3 TO 7 KT RANGE...WHICH WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO
DROP WIND CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTH.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT
HIGHER SUN ANGLES FOR MARCH...AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WITH THIS DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO
BOUNCE BACK TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BE BREAKING DOWN
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT DRY AIR WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE AND THEIR WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...SO THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNEVENTFUL.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SE TOWARD
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE NOW LESS INCLINED TO CLOSE
OFF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT THEY ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH IT. SURFACE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL INDICATED OVER
THE GULF...BUT IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST THAN IN RUNS OF RECENT DAYS. AS A
RESULT...IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIRECT EFFECTS
FROM THE CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS IT PASSES.

A TRANSITORY RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITHOUT ANY COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.

ANOTHER LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO HEAD IN FROM THE NW DURING THE WEEKEND. GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE ON THE BIG PICTURE FOR THIS...BUT SHOW SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES. TAKING BOTH INTO CONSIDERATION...THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EVEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A BUFFER
OF LOWER POPS ON BOTH SIDES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LAST ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MOVES THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY. FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE ARE NOW ALL SNOW. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS MID AFTERNOON. VFR
WX SHOULD TAKE OVER THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE...BEFORE SETTLING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AND BECOME MORE
EASTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-104-106>109-111-112-114.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ079-080-
083>088-110-113-115>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF/JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...DUSTY







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 1216 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

ONE UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS MORNING TO FINE TUNE TEMPS AND POPS
SO AS TO BETTER TIME THE DEFORMATION BAND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.
SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND HAVE BEEN ABOUT ONE INCH PER HOUR WITH UP
TO 2 INCHES HAVING FALLEN IN THIS BAND IN SOME AREAS NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ATTM...THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LOOK ON
TARGET TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING AS THE SNOW HAS ALREADY
ENDED...BUT DIFFICULT TRAVEL REMAINS...ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY AND
UNTREATED ROADS. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AS SEGMENTS ARE DROPPED
FROM THE WINTER STORM WARNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE TEXT PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH IN
THE SOUTH AND ALSO DROP THE HEAVY SNOW AND THUNDER MENTION. ALSO FINE
TUNED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
IN ADDITION...THE ZONES AND HWO WERE UPDATED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PCPN IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA. WHEN THIS EXITS WE WILL LOSE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
PCPN AND THREAT OF THUNDER. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL THE DEFORMATION ZONES PASSES THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND 06Z NAM12. ALSO
FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS. A MORE COMPLETE UPDATE TO THE TEXT PRODUCTS WILL TAKE PLACE
WITH THE EXPIRATION OF THE FLOOD WATCH AT 7 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

...THE REST OF THE NIGHT THROUGH TODAY...

...MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING...

07Z SFC ANALYSIS...AND RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
LOW PRESSURE AREA ROLLING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS IS RUNNING ALONG AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES TO
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE THIN REMAINDER OF THE STATE NOT IN THE DEEP
FREEZE. THE WARM NOSE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...PER OBS AND
THE TRANSITION SHOWING UP IN THE DOPPLER CC LOOP. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN DEPOSITING GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE BEFORE THE SLEET STARTS TO REALLY
ACCUMULATE FOR MOST PLACES. REPORTS OF HALF INCH SLEET TOTALS ARE
STARTING TO COME IN FROM PLACES NORTH AND WEST OF JKL. THE OFFICE
IS PUSHING THAT TOTAL...AS WELL...THOUGH SOME SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN
AT TIMES. THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...AND THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IT HAS LAID ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...IS EVIDENCED BY THE MID TEENS
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY...LOW 20S ALONG THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...AND MID 30S BARELY HOLDING ON OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DEEPER INTO
THE CWA WITH EVEN SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR 20 KTS SHOWING UP IN THE OBS
CLOSER TO THE BLUEGRASS. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONCERN FOR POWER
OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. ON RADAR...AN EXTENDED MASS OF PCPN REMAINS
TO TRANSITION THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHERE IT WILL BE CONVERTED TO
MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW...THOUGH FOR A TIME HEAVY RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. NO CG RETURNS HAVE
SHOWN UP WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN AWHILE...BUT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME IN CLOUD OR CLOUD TO CLOUD BOLTS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVELS AND THE
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SFC SYSTEM GIVING US A LION OF A START
TO MARCH. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND
WILL ROLL NEARLY DUE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EVENING.
THE MODEL AGREEMENT ALOFT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO AGREEMENT AT THE SFC
FOR A COMPLEX ONGOING SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. SO...HAVE INSTEAD LEANED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND THE NAM12 COMBINED WITH
TRENDS AND PCPN PROGRESSION TO GUIDE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

THE HEAVY PCPN...GRADUALLY GOING TO SNOW AND FALLING AT OVER AN INCH
AN HOUR...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BACK
EDGE AND A TAPER REACHING FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY 7 AM AND
SWEEPING EAST BY 10 AM. HAVE USED THIS FOR TIMING THE WORST OF THE
WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS
FOR THIS HEAVY PCPN BAND. THE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
SLEET...THOUGH...SO IN A SENSE WE ARE DODGING A BULLET...BUT THE ROADS
WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM...AS A RESULT. THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS THE LAST OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE...BASICALLY WHAT IS GOING ON
NEAR THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CURRENTLY...PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF AN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE
DRAWN UP THE GRIDS WITH THESE TWO PCPN AREAS AND THEIR PROGRESS IN
MIND. ACCORDINGLY...WILL HOLD ON TO THE WARNINGS AS THEY ARE WITH
SOME CLEAN UP POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z. WILL ALSO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH AS
HEAVY PCPN IN A SEMI-LIQUID FORM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THAT
AREA. EXPECT A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH...BUT JUST AS MUCH SLEET...1/2 TO 1 INCH...THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL BE DELINEATED FURTHER IN THE FORTHCOMING WSW
UPDATES.

USED THE CONSSHORT FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS...BC
VERSION FOR THE LATTER TWO...THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. ALSO DERIVED THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS FROM THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
JUST ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH THE TAPER OF THE SNOW
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.

...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...A
STRONG MASS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CONUS. THIS SET UP SHOULD KEEP KY DRY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS WELL AS USHER IN DRY CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THIS PUSH OF COLDER...DRIER
CANADIAN AIR...EXPECT LOWS TO DROP DOWN WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE MORE
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...TO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT JUST PASSED THROUGH...WINDS WERE GUSTY
IN MANY LOCATIONS. LUCKILY...EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIE DOWN BY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE GOOD AND BAD IMPLICATIONS. ON THE DOWN
SIDE...LIGHTER WINDS...IN ADDITION TO CLEAR SKIES AND A COOLER
AIR MASS OVERHEAD...WILL PROVIDE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...HENCE
THE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. ON THE UP SIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DROP THIS LOW...ANY AMOUNT OF WIND WILL ONLY AID TO THE
WIND CHILL FACTOR...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER THAN THEY
REALLY ARE. THAT BEING SAID...WINDS WILL NOT BE NIL. WE CAN EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS IN THE 3 TO 7 KT RANGE...WHICH WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO
DROP WIND CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTH.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT
HIGHER SUN ANGLES FOR MARCH...AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WITH THIS DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO
BOUNCE BACK TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BE BREAKING DOWN
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT DRY AIR WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE AND THEIR WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...SO THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNEVENTFUL.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SE TOWARD
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE NOW LESS INCLINED TO CLOSE
OFF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT THEY ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH IT. SURFACE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL INDICATED OVER
THE GULF...BUT IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST THAN IN RUNS OF RECENT DAYS. AS A
RESULT...IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIRECT EFFECTS
FROM THE CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS IT PASSES.

A TRANSITORY RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITHOUT ANY COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.

ANOTHER LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO HEAD IN FROM THE NW DURING THE WEEKEND. GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE ON THE BIG PICTURE FOR THIS...BUT SHOW SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES. TAKING BOTH INTO CONSIDERATION...THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EVEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A BUFFER
OF LOWER POPS ON BOTH SIDES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MOVES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE STATE ARE STILL EXPERIENCING SOME SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS MID
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR AND IFR
RANGE FOR A BUT LONGER. VFR WX SHOULD TAKE OVER THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-104-106>109-111-112-114.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ079-080-
083>088-110-113-115>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF/JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 745 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE TEXT PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH IN
THE SOUTH AND ALSO DROP THE HEAVY SNOW AND THUNDER MENTION. ALSO FINE
TUNED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
IN ADDITION...THE ZONES AND HWO WERE UPDATED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PCPN IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA. WHEN THIS EXITS WE WILL LOSE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
PCPN AND THREAT OF THUNDER. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL THE DEFORMATION ZONES PASSES THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND 06Z NAM12. ALSO
FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS. A MORE COMPLETE UPDATE TO THE TEXT PRODUCTS WILL TAKE PLACE
WITH THE EXPIRATION OF THE FLOOD WATCH AT 7 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

...THE REST OF THE NIGHT THROUGH TODAY...

...MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING...

07Z SFC ANALYSIS...AND RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
LOW PRESSURE AREA ROLLING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS IS RUNNING ALONG AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES TO
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE THIN REMAINDER OF THE STATE NOT IN THE DEEP
FREEZE. THE WARM NOSE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...PER OBS AND
THE TRANSITION SHOWING UP IN THE DOPPLER CC LOOP. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN DEPOSITING GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE BEFORE THE SLEET STARTS TO REALLY
ACCUMULATE FOR MOST PLACES. REPORTS OF HALF INCH SLEET TOTALS ARE
STARTING TO COME IN FROM PLACES NORTH AND WEST OF JKL. THE OFFICE
IS PUSHING THAT TOTAL...AS WELL...THOUGH SOME SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN
AT TIMES. THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...AND THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IT HAS LAID ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...IS EVIDENCED BY THE MID TEENS
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY...LOW 20S ALONG THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...AND MID 30S BARELY HOLDING ON OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DEEPER INTO
THE CWA WITH EVEN SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR 20 KTS SHOWING UP IN THE OBS
CLOSER TO THE BLUEGRASS. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONCERN FOR POWER
OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. ON RADAR...AN EXTENDED MASS OF PCPN REMAINS
TO TRANSITION THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHERE IT WILL BE CONVERTED TO
MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW...THOUGH FOR A TIME HEAVY RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. NO CG RETURNS HAVE
SHOWN UP WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN AWHILE...BUT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME IN CLOUD OR CLOUD TO CLOUD BOLTS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVELS AND THE
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SFC SYSTEM GIVING US A LION OF A START
TO MARCH. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND
WILL ROLL NEARLY DUE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EVENING.
THE MODEL AGREEMENT ALOFT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO AGREEMENT AT THE SFC
FOR A COMPLEX ONGOING SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. SO...HAVE INSTEAD LEANED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND THE NAM12 COMBINED WITH
TRENDS AND PCPN PROGRESSION TO GUIDE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

THE HEAVY PCPN...GRADUALLY GOING TO SNOW AND FALLING AT OVER AN INCH
AN HOUR...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BACK
EDGE AND A TAPER REACHING FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY 7 AM AND
SWEEPING EAST BY 10 AM. HAVE USED THIS FOR TIMING THE WORST OF THE
WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS
FOR THIS HEAVY PCPN BAND. THE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
SLEET...THOUGH...SO IN A SENSE WE ARE DODGING A BULLET...BUT THE ROADS
WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM...AS A RESULT. THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS THE LAST OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE...BASICALLY WHAT IS GOING ON
NEAR THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CURRENTLY...PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF AN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE
DRAWN UP THE GRIDS WITH THESE TWO PCPN AREAS AND THEIR PROGRESS IN
MIND. ACCORDINGLY...WILL HOLD ON TO THE WARNINGS AS THEY ARE WITH
SOME CLEAN UP POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z. WILL ALSO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH AS
HEAVY PCPN IN A SEMI-LIQUID FORM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THAT
AREA. EXPECT A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH...BUT JUST AS MUCH SLEET...1/2 TO 1 INCH...THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL BE DELINEATED FURTHER IN THE FORTHCOMING WSW
UPDATES.

USED THE CONSSHORT FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS...BC
VERSION FOR THE LATTER TWO...THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. ALSO DERIVED THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS FROM THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
JUST ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH THE TAPER OF THE SNOW
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.

...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...A
STRONG MASS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CONUS. THIS SET UP SHOULD KEEP KY DRY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS WELL AS USHER IN DRY CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THIS PUSH OF COLDER...DRIER
CANADIAN AIR...EXPECT LOWS TO DROP DOWN WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE MORE
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...TO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT JUST PASSED THROUGH...WINDS WERE GUSTY
IN MANY LOCATIONS. LUCKILY...EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIE DOWN BY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE GOOD AND BAD IMPLICATIONS. ON THE DOWN
SIDE...LIGHTER WINDS...IN ADDITION TO CLEAR SKIES AND A COOLER
AIR MASS OVERHEAD...WILL PROVIDE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...HENCE
THE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. ON THE UP SIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DROP THIS LOW...ANY AMOUNT OF WIND WILL ONLY AID TO THE
WIND CHILL FACTOR...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER THAN THEY
REALLY ARE. THAT BEING SAID...WINDS WILL NOT BE NIL. WE CAN EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS IN THE 3 TO 7 KT RANGE...WHICH WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO
DROP WIND CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTH.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT
HIGHER SUN ANGLES FOR MARCH...AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WITH THIS DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO
BOUNCE BACK TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BE BREAKING DOWN
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT DRY AIR WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE AND THEIR WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...SO THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNEVENTFUL.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SE TOWARD
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE NOW LESS INCLINED TO CLOSE
OFF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT THEY ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH IT. SURFACE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL INDICATED OVER
THE GULF...BUT IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST THAN IN RUNS OF RECENT DAYS. AS A
RESULT...IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIRECT EFFECTS
FROM THE CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS IT PASSES.

A TRANSITORY RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITHOUT ANY COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.

ANOTHER LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO HEAD IN FROM THE NW DURING THE WEEKEND. GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE ON THE BIG PICTURE FOR THIS...BUT SHOW SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES. TAKING BOTH INTO CONSIDERATION...THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EVEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A BUFFER
OF LOWER POPS ON BOTH SIDES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MOVES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE STATE ARE STILL EXPERIENCING SOME SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS MID
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR AND IFR
RANGE FOR A BUT LONGER. VFR WX SHOULD TAKE OVER THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-104-106>109-111-112-114.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ079-080-
083>088-110-113-115>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF/JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 625 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PCPN IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA. WHEN THIS EXITS WE WILL LOSE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
PCPN AND THREAT OF THUNDER. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL THE DEFORMATION ZONES PASSES THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND 06Z NAM12. ALSO
FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS. A MORE COMPLETE UPDATE TO THE TEXT PRODUCTS WILL TAKE PLACE
WITH THE EXPIRATION OF THE FLOOD WATCH AT 7 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

...THE REST OF THE NIGHT THROUGH TODAY...

...MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING...

07Z SFC ANALYSIS...AND RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
LOW PRESSURE AREA ROLLING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS IS RUNNING ALONG AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES TO
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE THIN REMAINDER OF THE STATE NOT IN THE DEEP
FREEZE. THE WARM NOSE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...PER OBS AND
THE TRANSITION SHOWING UP IN THE DOPPLER CC LOOP. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN DEPOSITING GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE BEFORE THE SLEET STARTS TO REALLY
ACCUMULATE FOR MOST PLACES. REPORTS OF HALF INCH SLEET TOTALS ARE
STARTING TO COME IN FROM PLACES NORTH AND WEST OF JKL. THE OFFICE
IS PUSHING THAT TOTAL...AS WELL...THOUGH SOME SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN
AT TIMES. THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...AND THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IT HAS LAID ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...IS EVIDENCED BY THE MID TEENS
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY...LOW 20S ALONG THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...AND MID 30S BARELY HOLDING ON OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DEEPER INTO
THE CWA WITH EVEN SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR 20 KTS SHOWING UP IN THE OBS
CLOSER TO THE BLUEGRASS. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONCERN FOR POWER
OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. ON RADAR...AN EXTENDED MASS OF PCPN REMAINS
TO TRANSITION THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHERE IT WILL BE CONVERTED TO
MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW...THOUGH FOR A TIME HEAVY RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. NO CG RETURNS HAVE
SHOWN UP WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN AWHILE...BUT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME IN CLOUD OR CLOUD TO CLOUD BOLTS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVELS AND THE
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SFC SYSTEM GIVING US A LION OF A START
TO MARCH. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND
WILL ROLL NEARLY DUE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EVENING.
THE MODEL AGREEMENT ALOFT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO AGREEMENT AT THE SFC
FOR A COMPLEX ONGOING SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. SO...HAVE INSTEAD LEANED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND THE NAM12 COMBINED WITH
TRENDS AND PCPN PROGRESSION TO GUIDE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

THE HEAVY PCPN...GRADUALLY GOING TO SNOW AND FALLING AT OVER AN INCH
AN HOUR...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BACK
EDGE AND A TAPER REACHING FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY 7 AM AND
SWEEPING EAST BY 10 AM. HAVE USED THIS FOR TIMING THE WORST OF THE
WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS
FOR THIS HEAVY PCPN BAND. THE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
SLEET...THOUGH...SO IN A SENSE WE ARE DODGING A BULLET...BUT THE ROADS
WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM...AS A RESULT. THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS THE LAST OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE...BASICALLY WHAT IS GOING ON
NEAR THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CURRENTLY...PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF AN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE
DRAWN UP THE GRIDS WITH THESE TWO PCPN AREAS AND THEIR PROGRESS IN
MIND. ACCORDINGLY...WILL HOLD ON TO THE WARNINGS AS THEY ARE WITH
SOME CLEAN UP POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z. WILL ALSO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH AS
HEAVY PCPN IN A SEMI-LIQUID FORM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THAT
AREA. EXPECT A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH...BUT JUST AS MUCH SLEET...1/2 TO 1 INCH...THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL BE DELINEATED FURTHER IN THE FORTHCOMING WSW
UPDATES.

USED THE CONSSHORT FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS...BC
VERSION FOR THE LATTER TWO...THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. ALSO DERIVED THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS FROM THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
JUST ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH THE TAPER OF THE SNOW
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.

...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...A
STRONG MASS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CONUS. THIS SET UP SHOULD KEEP KY DRY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS WELL AS USHER IN DRY CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THIS PUSH OF COLDER...DRIER
CANADIAN AIR...EXPECT LOWS TO DROP DOWN WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE MORE
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...TO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT JUST PASSED THROUGH...WINDS WERE GUSTY
IN MANY LOCATIONS. LUCKILY...EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIE DOWN BY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE GOOD AND BAD IMPLICATIONS. ON THE DOWN
SIDE...LIGHTER WINDS...IN ADDITION TO CLEAR SKIES AND A COOLER
AIR MASS OVERHEAD...WILL PROVIDE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...HENCE
THE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. ON THE UP SIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DROP THIS LOW...ANY AMOUNT OF WIND WILL ONLY AID TO THE
WIND CHILL FACTOR...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER THAN THEY
REALLY ARE. THAT BEING SAID...WINDS WILL NOT BE NIL. WE CAN EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS IN THE 3 TO 7 KT RANGE...WHICH WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO
DROP WIND CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTH.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT
HIGHER SUN ANGLES FOR MARCH...AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WITH THIS DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO
BOUNCE BACK TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BE BREAKING DOWN
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT DRY AIR WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE AND THEIR WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...SO THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNEVENTFUL.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SE TOWARD
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE NOW LESS INCLINED TO CLOSE
OFF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT THEY ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH IT. SURFACE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL INDICATED OVER
THE GULF...BUT IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST THAN IN RUNS OF RECENT DAYS. AS A
RESULT...IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIRECT EFFECTS
FROM THE CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS IT PASSES.

A TRANSITORY RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITHOUT ANY COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.

ANOTHER LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO HEAD IN FROM THE NW DURING THE WEEKEND. GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE ON THE BIG PICTURE FOR THIS...BUT SHOW SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES. TAKING BOTH INTO CONSIDERATION...THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EVEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A BUFFER
OF LOWER POPS ON BOTH SIDES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MOVES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE STATE ARE STILL EXPERIENCING SOME SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS MID
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR AND IFR
RANGE FOR A BUT LONGER. VFR WX SHOULD TAKE OVER THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-104-106>109-111-112-114.

FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-
083>088-107-109-110-112>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ079-080-
083>088-110-113-115>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF/JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 421 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

...THE REST OF THE NIGHT THROUGH TODAY...

...MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING...

07Z SFC ANALYSIS...AND RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
LOW PRESSURE AREA ROLLING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS IS RUNNING ALONG AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES TO
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE THIN REMAINDER OF THE STATE NOT IN THE DEEP
FREEZE. THE WARM NOSE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...PER OBS AND
THE TRANSITION SHOWING UP IN THE DOPPLER CC LOOP. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN DEPOSITING GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE BEFORE THE SLEET STARTS TO REALLY
ACCUMULATE FOR MOST PLACES. REPORTS OF HALF INCH SLEET TOTALS ARE
STARTING TO COME IN FROM PLACES NORTH AND WEST OF JKL. THE OFFICE
IS PUSHING THAT TOTAL...AS WELL...THOUGH SOME SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN
AT TIMES. THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...AND THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IT HAS LAID ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...IS EVIDENCED BY THE MID TEENS
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY...LOW 20S ALONG THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...AND MID 30S BARELY HOLDING ON OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DEEPER INTO
THE CWA WITH EVEN SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR 20 KTS SHOWING UP IN THE OBS
CLOSER TO THE BLUEGRASS. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONCERN FOR POWER
OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. ON RADAR...AN EXTENDED MASS OF PCPN REMAINS
TO TRANSITION THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHERE IT WILL BE CONVERTED TO
MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW...THOUGH FOR A TIME HEAVY RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. NO CG RETURNS HAVE
SHOWN UP WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN AWHILE...BUT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME IN CLOUD OR CLOUD TO CLOUD BOLTS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVELS AND THE
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SFC SYSTEM GIVING US A LION OF A START
TO MARCH. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND
WILL ROLL NEARLY DUE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EVENING.
THE MODEL AGREEMENT ALOFT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO AGREEMENT AT THE SFC
FOR A COMPLEX ONGOING SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. SO...HAVE INSTEAD LEANED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND THE NAM12 COMBINED WITH
TRENDS AND PCPN PROGRESSION TO GUIDE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

THE HEAVY PCPN...GRADUALLY GOING TO SNOW AND FALLING AT OVER AN INCH
AN HOUR...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BACK
EDGE AND A TAPER REACHING FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY 7 AM AND
SWEEPING EAST BY 10 AM. HAVE USED THIS FOR TIMING THE WORST OF THE
WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS
FOR THIS HEAVY PCPN BAND. THE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
SLEET...THOUGH...SO IN A SENSE WE ARE DODGING A BULLET...BUT THE ROADS
WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM...AS A RESULT. THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS THE LAST OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE...BASICALLY WHAT IS GOING ON
NEAR THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CURRENTLY...PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF AN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE
DRAWN UP THE GRIDS WITH THESE TWO PCPN AREAS AND THEIR PROGRESS IN
MIND. ACCORDINGLY...WILL HOLD ON TO THE WARNINGS AS THEY ARE WITH
SOME CLEAN UP POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z. WILL ALSO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH AS
HEAVY PCPN IN A SEMI-LIQUID FORM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THAT
AREA. EXPECT A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH...BUT JUST AS MUCH SLEET...1/2 TO 1 INCH...THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL BE DELINEATED FURTHER IN THE FORTHCOMING WSW
UPDATES.

USED THE CONSSHORT FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS...BC
VERSION FOR THE LATTER TWO...THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. ALSO DERIVED THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS FROM THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
JUST ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH THE TAPER OF THE SNOW
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.

...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...A
STRONG MASS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CONUS. THIS SET UP SHOULD KEEP KY DRY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS WELL AS USHER IN DRY CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THIS PUSH OF COLDER...DRIER
CANADIAN AIR...EXPECT LOWS TO DROP DOWN WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE MORE
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...TO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT JUST PASSED THROUGH...WINDS WERE GUSTY
IN MANY LOCATIONS. LUCKILY...EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIE DOWN BY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE GOOD AND BAD IMPLICATIONS. ON THE DOWN
SIDE...LIGHTER WINDS...IN ADDITION TO CLEAR SKIES AND A COOLER
AIR MASS OVERHEAD...WILL PROVIDE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...HENCE
THE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. ON THE UP SIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DROP THIS LOW...ANY AMOUNT OF WIND WILL ONLY AID TO THE
WIND CHILL FACTOR...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER THAN THEY
REALLY ARE. THAT BEING SAID...WINDS WILL NOT BE NIL. WE CAN EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS IN THE 3 TO 7 KT RANGE...WHICH WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO
DROP WIND CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTH.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT
HIGHER SUN ANGLES FOR MARCH...AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WITH THIS DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO
BOUNCE BACK TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BE BREAKING DOWN
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT DRY AIR WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE AND THEIR WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...SO THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNEVENTFUL.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SE TOWARD
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE NOW LESS INCLINED TO CLOSE
OFF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT THEY ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH IT. SURFACE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL INDICATED OVER
THE GULF...BUT IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST THAN IN RUNS OF RECENT DAYS. AS A
RESULT...IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIRECT EFFECTS
FROM THE CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS IT PASSES.

A TRANSITORY RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITHOUT ANY COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.

ANOTHER LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO HEAD IN FROM THE NW DURING THE WEEKEND. GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE ON THE BIG PICTURE FOR THIS...BUT SHOW SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES. TAKING BOTH INTO CONSIDERATION...THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EVEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A BUFFER
OF LOWER POPS ON BOTH SIDES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
MONDAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...BRINGING RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW TO THE
AREA. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AS THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW BEGINS...WHICH WILL BEGAN AROUND 04Z FOR THE
FAR NORTH...AND CLOSER TO 11 TO 12Z FOR THE FAR SOUTH. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS MID DAY ON
MONDAY. AVIATION INTERESTS ALOFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SIGNIFICANT
ICING UNTIL ALL PRECIPITATION CAN CHANGE TO SNOW. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION COULD ALSO HAVE CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE AND LIGHTNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-104-106>109-111-112-114.

FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-
083>088-107-109-110-112>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ079-080-
083>088-110-113-115>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF/JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...DUSTY







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 315 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

...THE REST OF THE NIGHT THROUGH TODAY...

...MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING...

07Z SFC ANALYSIS...AND RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
LOW PRESSURE AREA ROLLING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS IS RUNNING ALONG AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES TO
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE THIN REMAINDER OF THE STATE NOT IN THE DEEP
FREEZE. THE WARM NOSE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...PER OBS AND
THE TRANSITION SHOWING UP IN THE DOPPLER CC LOOP. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN DEPOSITING GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE BEFORE THE SLEET STARTS TO REALLY
ACCUMULATE FOR MOST PLACES. REPORTS OF HALF INCH SLEET TOTALS ARE
STARTING TO COME IN FROM PLACES NORTH AND WEST OF JKL. THE OFFICE
IS PUSHING THAT TOTAL...AS WELL...THOUGH SOME SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN
AT TIMES. THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...AND THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IT HAS LAID ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...IS EVIDENCED BY THE MID TEENS
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY...LOW 20S ALONG THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...AND MID 30S BARELY HOLDING ON OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DEEPER INTO
THE CWA WITH EVEN SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR 20 KTS SHOWING UP IN THE OBS
CLOSER TO THE BLUEGRASS. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONCERN FOR POWER
OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. ON RADAR...AN EXTENDED MASS OF PCPN REMAINS
TO TRANSITION THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHERE IT WILL BE CONVERTED TO
MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW...THOUGH FOR A TIME HEAVY RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. NO CG RETURNS HAVE
SHOWN UP WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN AWHILE...BUT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME IN CLOUD OR CLOUD TO CLOUD BOLTS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVELS AND THE
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SFC SYSTEM GIVING US A LION OF A START
TO MARCH. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND
WILL ROLL NEARLY DUE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EVENING.
THE MODEL AGREEMENT ALOFT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO AGREEMENT AT THE SFC
FOR A COMPLEX ONGOING SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. SO...HAVE INSTEAD LEANED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND THE NAM12 COMBINED WITH
TRENDS AND PCPN PROGRESSION TO GUIDE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

THE HEAVY PCPN...GRADUALLY GOING TO SNOW AND FALLING AT OVER AN INCH
AN HOUR...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BACK
EDGE AND A TAPER REACHING FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY 7 AM AND
SWEEPING EAST BY 10 AM. HAVE USED THIS FOR TIMING THE WORST OF THE
WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS
FOR THIS HEAVY PCPN BAND. THE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
SLEET...THOUGH...SO IN A SENSE WE ARE DODGING A BULLET...BUT THE ROADS
WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM...AS A RESULT. THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS THE LAST OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE...BASICALLY WHAT IS GOING ON
NEAR THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CURRENTLY...PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF AN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE
DRAWN UP THE GRIDS WITH THESE TWO PCPN AREAS AND THEIR PROGRESS IN
MIND. ACCORDINGLY...WILL HOLD ON TO THE WARNINGS AS THEY ARE WITH
SOME CLEAN UP POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z. WILL ALSO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH AS
HEAVY PCPN IN A SEMI-LIQUID FORM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THAT
AREA. EXPECT A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH...BUT JUST AS MUCH SLEET...1/2 TO 1 INCH...THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL BE DELINEATED FURTHER IN THE FORTHCOMING WSW
UPDATES.

USED THE CONSSHORT FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS...BC
VERSION FOR THE LATTER TWO...THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. ALSO DERIVED THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS FROM THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
JUST ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH THE TAPER OF THE SNOW
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.

...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...A
STRONG MASS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CONUS. THIS SET UP SHOULD KEEP KY DRY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS WELL AS USHER IN DRY CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THIS PUSH OF COLDER...DRIER
CANADIAN AIR...EXPECT LOWS TO DROP DOWN WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE MORE
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...TO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT JUST PASSED THROUGH...WINDS WERE GUSTY
IN MANY LOCATIONS. LUCKILY...EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIE DOWN BY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE GOOD AND BAD IMPLICATIONS. ON THE DOWN
SIDE...LIGHTER WINDS...IN ADDITION TO CLEAR SKIES AND A COOLER
AIRMASS OVERHEAD...WILL PROVIDE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...HENCE
THE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. ON THE UP SIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DROP THIS LOW...ANY AMOUNT OF WIND WILL ONLY AID TO THE
WIND CHILL FACTOR...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER THAN THEY
REALLY ARE. THAT BEING SAID...WINDS WILL NOT BE NIL. WE CAN EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS IN THE 3 TO 7 KT RANGE...WHICH WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO
DROP WIND CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTH.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT
HIGHER SUN ANGLES FOR MARCH...AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO
BOUNCE BACK TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG A SHALLOW
MIXED MOIST LAYER AT TEMPS AROUND -10C SHOULD NOT YIELD ANYTHING
MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES ON MONDAY EVENING...IF THAT. SURFACE
COOLING COUPLED WITH WEAK WARMING JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD PUT
AND END TO FLURRIES DURING THE NIGHT. IT STILL APPEARS THAT COLD
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL GIVE US MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS SHOULD DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH PENDING TIMING OF CLEARING AND PRESSURE GRADIENT AS FRESH SNOW
COVER SHOULD LEAD TO MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE VERY DRY
AIR MASS WHICH THIS HIGH PUTS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP USE DRY AT LEAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY ON THURSDAY...DESPITE A COUPLE OF WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHT RISES SHOULD DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE UNTIL THURSDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE GULF COAST FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT AND THEN
POSSIBLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW BY THU. SURFACE DEVELOPMENT ENSUES IN
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND HEADS NE ALONG THE SE COAST. WITH A
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER SYSTEM FORECAST TO POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF FOR A
TIME...CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING AND TRACK IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME
RANGE THOUGH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AS WELL AS THE 18Z GFS HAVE
THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST FOR
MUCH MORE THAN THE TN AND OR VA BORDER COUNTIES BEING BRUSHED WITH
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

HOW QUICKLY THE SE CONUS SYSTEM DEPARTS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW
QUICKLY ANOTHER SYSTEM CAN MOVE IN FROM THE NW. THE GFS AND ECMWF
STILL DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN AND
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...AND A GENERALIZED FORECAST CONSENSUS BLEND
WHICH LED TO A LONG PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY HAS BEEN USED. THE 12Z GFS WOULD SUPPORT FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT CHANCES FOR RAIN OR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE 12Z
ECMWF AND THE 0Z ECMWF FOR THAT MATTER HAVE THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA NEARLY 24 HOURS LATE FOR SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

AFTER SOME VERY COLD READINGS FOR EARLY MARCH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODERATE A BIT ON ON TUESDAY INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. WITH THE
ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE
FOR TUESDAY. TUE NIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE CHILLY BUT WARMER THAN MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL MODERATE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
MONDAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...BRINGING RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW TO THE
AREA. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AS THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW BEGINS...WHICH WILL BEGAN AROUND 04Z FOR THE
FAR NORTH...AND CLOSER TO 11 TO 12Z FOR THE FAR SOUTH. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS MID DAY ON
MONDAY. AVIATION INTERESTS ALOFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SIGNIFICANT
ICING UNTIL ALL PRECIPITATION CAN CHANGE TO SNOW. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION COULD ALSO HAVE CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE AND LIGHTNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-104-106>109-111-112-114.

FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-
083>088-107-109-110-112>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ079-080-
083>088-110-113-115>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF/JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DUSTY





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 329 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROF EXTENDING W INTO
WRN CANADA...ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF CANADA INTO THE
NRN CONUS...BUT THE COLD IS MODERATING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLOSER TO -15C TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...REBOUNDING FROM BITTER COLD LOW TEMPS LAST NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
OVER THE 280-285K LAYER AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL MN AS NOTED ON
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. THIS SNOW IS FCST TO SPREAD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE PROGGED BY 12Z MODELS TO DIVE SE OVER SRN/CNTRL WI...THE
BEST AND LONGEST SUSTAINED DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WI BORDER COUNTIES AND
ALONG THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE S (LIKELY) WITH LOWER CHC POPS TO THE NW
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG AVBL PER 280K
SFC (ROUGHLY 730MB) AND 6HRS OR SO OF -SN...EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH NORTH TO PERHAPS 1-2INCHES FAR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS
EXPECTED...TEMPS AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BLO 0F
TONIGHT.

EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC BEST FORCING SLIDE SE OF THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OVER THE ERN
COUNTIES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM SCNTRL CANADA WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION (8H TEMPS DOWN TO -18C) ON
TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY FROM
LOWER TO MID TEENS NORTH TO UPPER TEENS SOUTH UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODIS IMAGERY
OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS INDICATES LAKE SUPERIOR IS NEARLY ICED
OVER...SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL
DON/T EXPECT MUCH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.

TUESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK SHORTWAVES...WITH THE
ONE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST AND THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE DAKOTAS. THIS
SECOND WAVE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
TRAJECTORY AS THE TUESDAY MORNING WAVE...BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PULL DRIER AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MICHIGAN AND LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATING IT BEING
SHALLOW...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST AND MAINLY INDICATE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH
INFLUENCE WITH THIS WAVE...ESPECIALLY WITH A MOSTLY FROZEN LAKE
SUPERIOR.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN EASTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO VARY ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE
EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING...SHOULD SEE A
QUICK FALL IN TEMPS BEFORE RETURN FLOW TRIES TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
SINCE PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE
EVENING...DID LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BASED OFF THE CONSISTENCY
IN THE MODELS ON HAVING LOWS IN THE -5 TO -10 DEGREE RANGE.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASUREABLE SNOW IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THERE IS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE THAT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AND ACROSS
THE U.P. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SNOW. WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS...WILL
TREND POPS UP IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND THINK SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY (FROM A HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS) AND
WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH LAKE SUPERIOR PRETTY MUCH
FROZEN OVER. THERE ARE HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY DRY...WOULDN/T
EXPECT MORE THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT)
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA.

AS FOR HIGHS...VALUES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD BUT WARMER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY. 850MB TEMPS
STAY IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO MOST OF THE WEEK AND LIMITS HIGHS FROM
RISING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 20S LATE IN THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. SOME OF THE THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (AROUND 40
PERCENT) DO SHOW TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME FOR
MOST OF THE CWA SINCE FEB 21ST. 12Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS AROUND FREEZING ON MONDAY...SO WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND NEAR COMPLETE ICE
COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
-SN WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT VIS COULD DROP TO IFR FOR A
TIME AT KIWD/KSAW. LOOK FOR SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN THRU 18Z
TUE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

A SFC TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TUE...WILL RESULT IN
A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER
20KT TONIGHT THRU TUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU WED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES
FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 318 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH TROF EXTENDING W INTO WRN CANADA...
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO COVER A VAST AREA OF CANADA INTO THE NRN
CONUS. HOWEVER...THE COLD IS MODERATING AS 00Z RAOBS SHOWED 850MB
TEMPS OF -21C/-17C/-21C AT KINL/KGRB/KAPX RESPECTIVELY...ALL SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. COLD WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS PACIFIC AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD E IN LOW AMPLITUDE
FLOW. SFC TROF THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT BROUGHT A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A LONE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD/-SHSN
BAND EMANATING FROM A PATCH OF OPEN WATER/BKN ICE NEAR ISLE ROYALE
WAS EXTENDING SSE AND COMBINING WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM SOME
OPEN WATER/BKN ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW TO BRING
FLURRIES/-SHSN TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES/MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO -10 TO -25F IN
GENERAL.

TODAY WILL BE A QUIET DAY WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. MODERATING ARCTIC AIR MASS AND SUNSHINE
WORKING ON LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS MAY STILL FAIL TO GET ABOVE 10F OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND THE NE FCST AREA AS WINDS OFF THE FROZEN LAKE LIMIT
MIXING DEPTH. NAM/GEM SHOW A LAKE BREEZE OR MAYBE MORE
APPROPRIATE...ICE BREEZE...DEVELOPING INTO THE MARQUETTE AREA THIS
AFTN. IF SO...TEMPS MAY FALL BACK SEVERAL DEGREES AFTER RISING INTO
THE TEENS.

ALTHOUGH TIMING IS NOT WELL AGREED UPON YET...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF -SN WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI AT SOME
POINT TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NRN
PORTION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/DEEP LAYER FORCING AS WELL AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO. THUS...POPS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE S
(LIKELY) WITH CHC TO THE N. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG AVBL PER
280K SFC (ROUGHLY 700-725MB) AND 6HRS OR SO OF -SN...EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH N TO PERHAPS 1-2INCHES FAR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS...TEMPS
AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BLO 0F TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODIS IMAGERY
OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS INDICATES LAKE SUPERIOR IS NEARLY ICED
OVER...SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL
DON/T EXPECT MUCH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.

TUESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK SHORTWAVES...WITH THE
ONE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST AND THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE DAKOTAS. THIS
SECOND WAVE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
TRAJECTORY AS THE TUESDAY MORNING WAVE...BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PULL DRIER AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MICHIGAN AND LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATING IT BEING
SHALLOW...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST AND MAINLY INDICATE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH
INFLUENCE WITH THIS WAVE...ESPECIALLY WITH A MOSTLY FROZEN LAKE
SUPERIOR.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN EASTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO VARY ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE
EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING...SHOULD SEE A
QUICK FALL IN TEMPS BEFORE RETURN FLOW TRIES TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
SINCE PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE
EVENING...DID LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BASED OFF THE CONSISTENCY
IN THE MODELS ON HAVING LOWS IN THE -5 TO -10 DEGREE RANGE.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASUREABLE SNOW IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THERE IS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE THAT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AND ACROSS
THE U.P. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SNOW. WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS...WILL
TREND POPS UP IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND THINK SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY (FROM A HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS) AND
WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH LAKE SUPERIOR PRETTY MUCH
FROZEN OVER. THERE ARE HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY DRY...WOULDN/T
EXPECT MORE THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT)
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA.

AS FOR HIGHS...VALUES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD BUT WARMER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY. 850MB TEMPS
STAY IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO MOST OF THE WEEK AND LIMITS HIGHS FROM
RISING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 20S LATE IN THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. SOME OF THE THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (AROUND 40
PERCENT) DO SHOW TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME FOR
MOST OF THE CWA SINCE FEB 21ST. 12Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS AROUND FREEZING ON MONDAY...SO WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND NEAR COMPLETE ICE
COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
-SN WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT VIS COULD DROP TO IFR FOR A
TIME AT KIWD/KSAW. LOOK FOR SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN THRU 18Z
TUE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
15-25KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SFC TROF THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TUE...BRINGING A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT.
AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU TUE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE
ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W.
TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1250 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH TROF EXTENDING W INTO WRN CANADA...
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO COVER A VAST AREA OF CANADA INTO THE NRN
CONUS. HOWEVER...THE COLD IS MODERATING AS 00Z RAOBS SHOWED 850MB
TEMPS OF -21C/-17C/-21C AT KINL/KGRB/KAPX RESPECTIVELY...ALL SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. COLD WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS PACIFIC AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD E IN LOW AMPLITUDE
FLOW. SFC TROF THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT BROUGHT A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A LONE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD/-SHSN
BAND EMANATING FROM A PATCH OF OPEN WATER/BKN ICE NEAR ISLE ROYALE
WAS EXTENDING SSE AND COMBINING WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM SOME
OPEN WATER/BKN ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW TO BRING
FLURRIES/-SHSN TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES/MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO -10 TO -25F IN
GENERAL.

TODAY WILL BE A QUIET DAY WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. MODERATING ARCTIC AIR MASS AND SUNSHINE
WORKING ON LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS MAY STILL FAIL TO GET ABOVE 10F OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND THE NE FCST AREA AS WINDS OFF THE FROZEN LAKE LIMIT
MIXING DEPTH. NAM/GEM SHOW A LAKE BREEZE OR MAYBE MORE
APPROPRIATE...ICE BREEZE...DEVELOPING INTO THE MARQUETTE AREA THIS
AFTN. IF SO...TEMPS MAY FALL BACK SEVERAL DEGREES AFTER RISING INTO
THE TEENS.

ALTHOUGH TIMING IS NOT WELL AGREED UPON YET...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF -SN WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI AT SOME
POINT TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NRN
PORTION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/DEEP LAYER FORCING AS WELL AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO. THUS...POPS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE S
(LIKELY) WITH CHC TO THE N. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG AVBL PER
280K SFC (ROUGHLY 700-725MB) AND 6HRS OR SO OF -SN...EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH N TO PERHAPS 1-2INCHES FAR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS...TEMPS
AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BLO 0F TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE SERN CWA 12Z TUE...WITH THE BULK
OF ANY LIGHT SNOW SE OF THE CWA AFTER 12Z TUE. HAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LINGERING BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO TUE...BUT ONLY VERY
MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE OF THE CWA WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY ON
WED...WITH AT LEAST CHANCES OF PRECIP RETURNING THU INTO FRI AS
MODEL INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...SO USED A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE WHICH GAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS THU INTO FRI. SHOULD SEE WARMING TEMPS /BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL/ AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THU AND FRI AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 ON FRI.
A COLDER AIRMASS AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND NEAR COMPLETE ICE
COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
-SN WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT VIS COULD DROP TO IFR FOR A
TIME AT KIWD/KSAW. LOOK FOR SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN THRU 18Z
TUE.


&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
15-25KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SFC TROF THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TUE...BRINGING A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT.
AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU TUE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE
ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W.
TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 627 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH TROF EXTENDING W INTO WRN CANADA...
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO COVER A VAST AREA OF CANADA INTO THE NRN
CONUS. HOWEVER...THE COLD IS MODERATING AS 00Z RAOBS SHOWED 850MB
TEMPS OF -21C/-17C/-21C AT KINL/KGRB/KAPX RESPECTIVELY...ALL SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. COLD WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS PACIFIC AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD E IN LOW AMPLITUDE
FLOW. SFC TROF THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT BROUGHT A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A LONE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD/-SHSN
BAND EMANATING FROM A PATCH OF OPEN WATER/BKN ICE NEAR ISLE ROYALE
WAS EXTENDING SSE AND COMBINING WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM SOME
OPEN WATER/BKN ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW TO BRING
FLURRIES/-SHSN TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES/MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO -10 TO -25F IN
GENERAL.

TODAY WILL BE A QUIET DAY WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. MODERATING ARCTIC AIR MASS AND SUNSHINE
WORKING ON LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS MAY STILL FAIL TO GET ABOVE 10F OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND THE NE FCST AREA AS WINDS OFF THE FROZEN LAKE LIMIT
MIXING DEPTH. NAM/GEM SHOW A LAKE BREEZE OR MAYBE MORE
APPROPRIATE...ICE BREEZE...DEVELOPING INTO THE MARQUETTE AREA THIS
AFTN. IF SO...TEMPS MAY FALL BACK SEVERAL DEGREES AFTER RISING INTO
THE TEENS.

ALTHOUGH TIMING IS NOT WELL AGREED UPON YET...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF -SN WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI AT SOME
POINT TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NRN
PORTION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/DEEP LAYER FORCING AS WELL AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO. THUS...POPS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE S
(LIKELY) WITH CHC TO THE N. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG AVBL PER
280K SFC (ROUGHLY 700-725MB) AND 6HRS OR SO OF -SN...EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH N TO PERHAPS 1-2INCHES FAR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS...TEMPS
AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BLO 0F TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE SERN CWA 12Z TUE...WITH THE BULK
OF ANY LIGHT SNOW SE OF THE CWA AFTER 12Z TUE. HAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LINGERING BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO TUE...BUT ONLY VERY
MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE OF THE CWA WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY ON
WED...WITH AT LEAST CHANCES OF PRECIP RETURNING THU INTO FRI AS
MODEL INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...SO USED A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE WHICH GAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS THU INTO FRI. SHOULD SEE WARMING TEMPS /BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL/ AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THU AND FRI AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 ON FRI.
A COLDER AIRMASS AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND NEAR COMPLETE ICE
COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
-SN WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS. WITH KCMX ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM...IT`S
POSSIBLE CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN VFR TONIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT VIS COULD DROP TO IFR FOR A TIME AT KIWD/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
15-25KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SFC TROF THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TUE...BRINGING A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT.
AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU TUE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE
ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W.
TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 515 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH TROF EXTENDING W INTO WRN CANADA...
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO COVER A VAST AREA OF CANADA INTO THE NRN
CONUS. HOWEVER...THE COLD IS MODERATING AS 00Z RAOBS SHOWED 850MB
TEMPS OF -21C/-17C/-21C AT KINL/KGRB/KAPX RESPECTIVELY...ALL SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. COLD WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS PACIFIC AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD E IN LOW AMPLITUDE
FLOW. SFC TROF THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT BROUGHT A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A LONE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD/-SHSN
BAND EMANATING FROM A PATCH OF OPEN WATER/BKN ICE NEAR ISLE ROYALE
WAS EXTENDING SSE AND COMBINING WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM SOME
OPEN WATER/BKN ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW TO BRING
FLURRIES/-SHSN TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES/MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO -10 TO -25F IN
GENERAL.

TODAY WILL BE A QUIET DAY WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. MODERATING ARCTIC AIR MASS AND SUNSHINE
WORKING ON LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS MAY STILL FAIL TO GET ABOVE 10F OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND THE NE FCST AREA AS WINDS OFF THE FROZEN LAKE LIMIT
MIXING DEPTH. NAM/GEM SHOW A LAKE BREEZE OR MAYBE MORE
APPROPRIATE...ICE BREEZE...DEVELOPING INTO THE MARQUETTE AREA THIS
AFTN. IF SO...TEMPS MAY FALL BACK SEVERAL DEGREES AFTER RISING INTO
THE TEENS.

ALTHOUGH TIMING IS NOT WELL AGREED UPON YET...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF -SN WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI AT SOME
POINT TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NRN
PORTION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/DEEP LAYER FORCING AS WELL AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO. THUS...POPS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE S
(LIKELY) WITH CHC TO THE N. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG AVBL PER
280K SFC (ROUGHLY 700-725MB) AND 6HRS OR SO OF -SN...EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH N TO PERHAPS 1-2INCHES FAR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS...TEMPS
AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BLO 0F TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE SERN CWA 12Z TUE...WITH THE BULK
OF ANY LIGHT SNOW SE OF THE CWA AFTER 12Z TUE. HAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LINGERING BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO TUE...BUT ONLY VERY
MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE OF THE CWA WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY ON
WED...WITH AT LEAST CHANCES OF PRECIP RETURNING THU INTO FRI AS
MODEL INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...SO USED A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE WHICH GAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS THU INTO FRI. SHOULD SEE WARMING TEMPS /BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL/ AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THU AND FRI AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 ON FRI.
A COLDER AIRMASS AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND NEAR COMPLETE ICE
COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD. MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. MVFR
VSBY/CIG WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT IWD WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW THAN SITES FARTHER TO THE EAST WHERE CONDITIONS MAY LOWER AFT
04/06Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
15-25KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SFC TROF THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TUE...BRINGING A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT.
AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU TUE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE
ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W.
TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 833 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

COMPLETED AN UPDATE OF GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
STRONGER BANDS OF -SN JUST N OF THE MN/IA BORDER THAT HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY PERSISTENT SINCE APPROXIMATELY 00Z. THIS BATCH OF HEAVIER
-SN FROM REDWOOD COUNTY THRU FREEBORN COUNTY HAS SHOWN STRONG DBZ
WHICH HAS CORRELATED TO SPOTTER REPORTS OF 3-5 INCHES ALREADY.
THIS BAND ALSO HAS MATCHED UP NICELY WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND HOPWRF...SO HAVE EXPANDED W AND N THE WINTER WX
ADVY AND ALSO NUDGED UP SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE 3-6 INCH RANGE. THE
NRN EDGE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY...REMAINING S OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO...
AND AM NOT EXPECTING A SHIFT N OF THE SNOWFALL FROM WHERE IT
CURRENTLY DELINEATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE SLOWLY COME TOGETHER THIS AFTN FOR A QUICK 2
TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF A STRONG SHRTWV & WAA LAYER /92-70H/ MOVING THRU SOUTHERN MN
THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADAR WAS DEPICTING A LARGE AREA OF HIGHER
RETURNS ACROSS SD/ND MOVING SE EARLY THIS AFTN...THE CONTINUED DRY
FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL SOUTH OF I-94. IT MAY EVEN TAKE A FEW HRS BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES ENOUGH FOR THE SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND IN EC
MN. OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HOPWRF AND RAP...THERE REMAINS A
VERY SHARP BOUNDARY BETWEEN NO SNOWFALL...AND LOCALLY 1 TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE DRIER AIR
TO HOLD THE NE 1/3 OF MPX CWA DRY...WITH THE BULK OF THE QPF SOUTH
OF NEW ULM TO OWATONNA. I DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO SPECIFIC ON
WHERE THE CUTOFF WOULD BE TO THE NE...BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE TWIN CITIES MAY ONLY GET FLURRIES...WITH ONE
TO TWO INCHES IN SCOTT/DAKOTA COUNTIES. AGAIN...THIS IS BASED ON
THE CURRENT RUN OF BOTH THE HOPWRF/RAP. ANY DEVIATION TO THE
STRONGER FORCING ALONG THE 92-70H FRONTOGENETIC ZONE THIS
EVENING...WILL CAUSE MORE OR LESS SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WC
WI. OTHERWISE...THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY FAST AND WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION BY 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

THE WELL-ADVERTISED MODERATING TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND EVEN WITH THE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF CHANCE
POPS...THE NEXT 7 DAYS LOOKS FAIRLY DRY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A
+40 DAY LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WITH A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION THAT KICKS IN SUNDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...IT MIGHT BE 40
DEGREES AT SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT. THESE ARE THINGS THAT WILL
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. FRIDAY MORNING WILL ALSO BE QUITE MILD
AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO A NON-DIURNAL TREND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WIDESPREAD >32 TEMPS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THAT BEGS THE
QUESTION WHAT KIND (IF ANY) PRECIP FALLS FROM THE SKY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE QPF IS LIGHT AND THE FORCING FAVORS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...A TREND THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 3-4 MODEL CYCLES. THE NAM GENERALLY HAS A
SNOW -> BREAK -> FREEZING RAIN -> RAIN -> SNOW TREND DURING THIS
TIME. MEANWHILE...THE GFS TREND MORE LIKE SNOW -> SLEET ->
FREEZING RAIN -> SNOW. PRETTY MESSY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE TREND
VARYING SPATIAL AND LACKING MODEL CYCLE CONSISTENCY. WE STAYED
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SNOW...BUT ARX/DMX NWS OFFICES MIGHT HAVE THE
BETTER IDEA CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A WHILE ON
FRIDAY. IT COULD JUST AS EASY BE NEARLY DRY AND SIMPLY BE
OVERCAST. LOW CONFIDENCE P-TYPE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT WE
ARE CONFIDENT IN A LOW-TO-NO QPF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

SWATH OF -SN OVER MAINLY SRN MN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE...ALONG
WITH POCKETS OF HIGHER INTENSITIES...THIS EVE BUT THE ENTIRE EVENT
LOOKS TO COME TO AN END BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR S OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...MEANING THAT KAXN-KSTC-KRNH
LOOK TO REMAIN IMMUNE FROM ANY -SN...WHILE KMSP-KEAU WILL GET
GLANCING BLOWS...AND KRWF WILL BE SQUARELY IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS
ACTIVITY AND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF DROPPING INTO IFR RANGE.
KMSP-KEAU LOOK GOOD TO DROP INTO MVFR...WITH MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE
OF ANYTHING WORSE. ONCE THE -SN MOVES OUT...VFR-TO-MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL THRU DAYBREAK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WED
BEFORE CEILINGS GRADUALLY RISE INTO VFR RANGE. WINDS WILL HAVE A
PREVAILING ELY COMPONENT...SHIFTING FROM NE TO SE TNGT THRU TMRW
WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE...THOUGH SPEEDS MAY INCRS
TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE ARND 00Z TMRW EVE.

KMSP...WNW-ESE ORIENTED BATCH OF -SN JUST S OF KMSP LOOKS TO STAY
THERE...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW BURSTS OF MVFR-RANGE -SN HITTING KMSP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. OTHERWISE...THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE
MORE OF A NON-EVENT FOR KMSP. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO
MVFR RANGE THIS EVE INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON CIGS DROPPING BELOW 1800 FT. WILL HOLD ON TO THE UPPER- RANGE
MVFR CEILINGS THRU LATE MRNG THEN CONDS BECOME SOLIDLY VFR TMRW
AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS...BECOMING N.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS...BECOMING W.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ065-067-
     073>077-082>085-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JPC








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

 524 AM MST MON MAR 3 2014

.UPDATE...

A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OCCURRED IN BILLINGS JUST BEFORE 5
AM MST...AND LIVINGSTON HAS ALSO REPORTED BRIEF FREEZING RAIN...SO
AT LEAST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING WITH ECHOES SEEN ON
RADAR IMAGERY. WE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER TO
THE 4O AND 50 PERCENT RANGE THIS MORNING FROM HARDIN SOUTHEASTWARD
TO THE BROADUS AND EKALAKA AREAS. WE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA WITH A
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN TO ALMOST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE BAKER AND
EKALAKA AREAS. IT/S APPARENT BASED ON THE BRIEF FREEZING RAIN THAT
OCCURRED AT BILLINGS WHERE ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE /INCLUDING THE MOST
RECENT RAP CYCLE/ SUGGESTS 850-HPA TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 C THAT THE
MODELS ARE COMPLETELY UNDERDOING THE AMOUNT OF WARMING ALOFT. THUS
IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT THE ABOVE-FREEZING
LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE EXISTS.

WE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR NOW BECAUSE IT
APPEARS THE MOISTURE IS VERY LIGHT...WHICH MAY NOT MAKE ROADS MUCH
WORSE THAN THEY ARE ALREADY IN MOST AREAS. THE THREAT IS ONE WHICH
WE ARE DEFINITELY CARRYING IN OUR MESSAGING THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE AN ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING PERIOD AS COLD
ARCTIC AIR RETREATS...OFFERING UP POTENTIAL FOR RAPID WARMING WHEN
AND WHERE THE SHALLOW INVERSION MIXES OUT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR HUGE
TEMPERATURE BUSTS WHERE IT DOES NOT DO SO AS READILY.

TODAY...THE KBLX WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS THE COLD AIR IS
IS VERY SHALLOW /LESS THAN 2000 FT DEEP/ AS OF 10 UTC AS THE WINDS
NEAR THAT LEVEL ARE SOUTHWEST AT 25 KT. OBSERVATIONS IN AND AROUND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONFIRM THIS IDEA WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE THE
5000 FT LEVEL ABOVE 32 F EARLY THIS MORNING. EVEN A SPOTTER AT NYE
REPORTED 40 F AND RAPIDLY COMPACTING/MELTING SNOW AT 08 UTC. THERE
IS NO DOUBT THAT THIS WARM AIR MASS WILL WORK NORTH AND EAST TODAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK 500-HPA SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS ITS
AXIS OVER WESTERN MT AT 10 UTC PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE GUIDANCE
FROM 00 UTC REMAINS CONSISTENT IN PUSHING THE MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT
WITH +4 TO +7 C 850-HPA TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST TO AT LEAST ROUNDUP
AND HYSHAM OVER TOWARD BROADUS BY AFTERNOON. DEEP SNOW PACK IS ONE
ISSUE WITH RESULTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES SINCE IT COULD COOL DOWN
THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER...BUT LINGERING INVERSIONS AND ANY DRAINAGE
OF COLD AIR TRAPPED IN BASINS OR RIVER VALLEYS /SUCH AS THE CLARKS
FORK INTO BILLINGS/ WILL LIKELY POSE A GREATER ISSUE. IT CERTAINLY
GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT WE WILL HAVE A WARM-UP TODAY...BUT WE ARE
NOT CONFIDENT AT ALL IN FORECAST HIGHS IN MOST PLACES. WE CHOSE TO
BLEND THE ONGOING FORECAST TOWARD THE 00 UTC GEM...AND WENT WARMER
THAN EVEN THAT OUTPUT IN THE FOOTHILLS LIKE RED LODGE WERE WE HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S F. WE CHOSE TO KEEP THE
FORECAST HIGHS NEAR 32 F AT BILLINGS GIVEN A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR A
CLARKS FORK DRAINAGE...BUT A 10 F BUST EITHER SIDE OF THAT IS VERY
POSSIBLE. THE 06 UTC GFS PUSHES A WEST WIND INTO BILLINGS AFTER 00
UTC...SO IT/S EVEN POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE HIGHER INTO THE
30S F AFTER SUNSET IN BILLINGS.

OTHERWISE...QUICK-HITTING FORCING WITH THE 500-HPA SHORT WAVE THIS
MORNING COULD YIELD SOME PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS AND LODGE GRASS FROM 12 TO 18 UTC. WE DID
INCLUDE A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN WITH SNOW THIS MORNING FOR MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MT...BUT POPS ARE ONLY AROUND 30
PERCENT BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER 500-HPA SHORT WAVE IS SET TO
CROSS THE AREA...POSING A GREATER RISK OF FREEZING RAIN OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. THE 03 UTC SREF CONFIRMS THE TOP-DOWN
METHOD APPLIED TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AS IT HAS HIGH /50 TO 90/ PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF LIQUID MOISTURE
FROM ROUNDUP AND BILLINGS OVER TO FORSYTH AND BROADUS TONIGHT. ANY
LIQUID MOISTURE WILL REFREEZE ON CONTACT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 32 F...SO AGAIN FREEZING RAIN IS NEEDED
IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE FREEZING RAIN RISK IS GOING
TO BE VERY CONDITIONAL ON PRECIPITATON ACTUALLY FORMING...WHICH IS
NOT A SURE THING...AS BORNE OUT BY 03 UTC SREF PROBABILITIES FOR A
HUNDREDTH OR MORE OF MOISTURE /WHICH ARE 50 PERCENT OR LOWER/. THE
00 UTC ECMWF ALSO BACKED OFF A BIT ON ITS QPF OVERNIGHT...SO THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAIN SIGNALS AND WE THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE AND WENT WITHOUT ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE A CASE WHERE NEAR-TERM TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
WILL BE NEEDED TO HONE IN ON WHERE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF IMPACTS
WILL EXIST...IF THEY DO INDEED OCCUR. NOTE THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE IN LINE FOR ANOTHER MORE-DEFINED SHOT OF SNOW TONIGHT AS WELL.

TUE...WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD 40+ F HIGHS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA BECAUSE THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE TURNS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BEHIND TONIGHT/S SHORT WAVE. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT MAY REMAIN HUNG UP IN
SOUTHEASTERN MT AND MOS-BASED GUIDANCE LENDS SUPPORT TO LOW CLOUDS
OR EVEN FOG IN PLACES LIKE BAKER AND MILES CITY...SO THERE IS ONCE
MORE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TO BE IN PLAY OVER
THE REGION. LOW POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN SHORT WAVES IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...BUT TAKING MOST
OF THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE AT FACE VALUE SUGGESTS THIS COULD MAINLY BE
A DRY PERIOD IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL BE SCATTERED AS THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY
LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS STRONGER JET
DYNAMICS/ISENTROPIC AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT COMBINE TO BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO MAINLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW BECOMING ZONAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH 700 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 60 KTS. ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS TO LIVINGSTON AND NEAR NYE.

UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE WEEK AND ABOVE
SEASONAL VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

WARM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER COLD SURFACE AIRMASS WILL KEEP
OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AND LOWERED CEILINGS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR
WITH THE PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE SNOW BUT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FROM BILLINGS EAST TO
FORSYTH THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH LOCALIZED MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. A SHALLOW LAYER OF ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FROM
BILLINGS TO MILES CITY. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032 025/043 028/042 029/043 026/039 025/047 032/051
    2/S 32/S    22/W    24/W    32/W    11/B    11/B
LVM 043 028/045 028/043 031/047 027/042 025/046 029/051
    3/O 33/S    32/W    35/W    32/W    21/B    12/W
HDN 032 021/042 025/041 027/042 025/038 023/049 030/052
    5/S 42/S    22/W    23/W    22/W    11/B    01/B
MLS 019 011/028 019/036 022/037 018/030 016/043 030/047
    4/S 43/S    22/W    33/W    22/J    11/B    11/B
4BQ 034 017/037 020/039 025/042 022/034 020/046 031/053
    5/S 32/S    22/W    22/W    32/J    11/B    01/B
BHK 020 007/023 015/034 020/033 015/029 013/039 027/045
    4/S 33/S    22/W    23/W    32/J    11/B    01/B
SHR 043 024/042 023/045 027/048 025/042 022/050 029/055
    4/S 22/S    21/B    22/W    43/W    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 1121 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

...RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW
IN THE COLDEST START TO MARCH SINCE 2002 AND ONE OF THE COLDEST
STARTS ON RECORD...

ALOFT: MODESTLY SPLIT LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW WAS OVER THE CONUS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING E THRU CO/NM INTO INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW.
THIS TROF WILL HEAD E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE SE STATES
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE WRN USA.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING ONSHORE INTO OR/NRN CA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS TROF WILL MISS THE
REGION FAR TO THE NW...BUT A LOW-AMPLITUDE PV STREAMER WILL MOVE
THRU TOMORROW...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THRU THE RIDGE.

SURFACE: ELONGATED AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRES EXTENDED FROM
WRN CANADA S INTO THE PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL SHRINK AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT...AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TOMORROW. THIS HIGH AND CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY MAJOR ROLES IN
HOW COLD TEMPS GET TONIGHT. BREAKING/SETTING RECORD LOWS IS ON THE
TABLE.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL ENCROACH
FROM THE N OF NEB HWY 92. SOME LIGHT SNOW /-SN/ MAY DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF S-CNTRL NEB. TEMPS DID GET ABOVE THE ALL-TIME RECORD
COLDEST FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH...BUT NOT BY MUCH.

PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFO ON RECORDS.

TONIGHT: UNSEASONABLE BITTER COLD! IF OUR TEMPS WORK OUT AS FCST...
LOWS WILL BE NEARLY 40F COLDER THAN WHERE THEY TYPICALLY ARE FOR
EARLY MARCH /LOW-MID 20S/.

THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING CLOUDS.
SOME MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE UPSTREAM OVER WY...BUT THEY
WILL BE MOVING INTO SUBSIDENCE. SO AM NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLEAR...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INFLICT A MAJOR IMPACT
ON TEMPS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS WELL...
RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF CALM OR NEARLY CALM WINDS.

TEMPS: LOWS WERE -13 TO -20 OVER THE DAKOTA`S THIS MORNING. AND
WHILE THERE IS SNOWCOVER UP THERE...MOST OF IT IS A WEEK OLD. THE
OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS AIR MASS. THE 850
MB TEMP WAS -21C AT GRAND ISLAND THIS MORNING. BASED ON REANALYSIS
DATA...-21 AND COLDER HAS ONLY OCCURRED 4 TIMES IN THE PAST 34 YRS.
AND GIVEN THAT TEMPS WILL ONLY BE ABOVE FRZG FOR ABOUT 5 HRS TODAY
ALONG AND N OF HWY 6...I BELIEVE WE NEED TO FCST RECORD COLD.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS OVER MUCH OF S-CNTRL NEB.

LOW TEMPS WERE DROPPED 4-7F FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

A WIND CHILL /WC/ ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA.
FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E...A WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR 1-2 HRS OF
-30 TO -35 WC`S IN THE 6AM-9AM TIMEFRAME. JUST AS TEMPS BOTTOM
OUT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THIS WILL HAPPEN DURING THE
MORNING RUSH.

SNOW: A NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF HAS DEVELOPED ON SATELLITE WITH A
BLOSSOMING AREA OF DEFORMATION -SN OVER WRN KANSAS. THIS HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER N THAN THE 12Z NAM-DERIVED HI-RES MODELS FCST. THE
17Z HRRR HAS IT AND BELIEVE THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A
TOUCH OF -SN OVER PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS...ESPECIALLY FROM
STOCKTON-OSBORNE-BELOIT SOUTHWARD. A CHANCE OF -SN IS NOW IN THE
FCST. THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FCST TO DROP ESE WHICH WILL
ACTUALLY DRAG THE SNOW SHIELD AWAY FROM N-CNTRL KS AS SUNSET
APPROACHES.

TOMORROW: HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE MOVING IN AT DAWN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROF. SO OVERALL EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY AND
BLUSTERY DAY. HOW QUICKLY TEMPS WARM UP IS UNCERTAIN. SO CONFIDENCE
IN THE HOURLY TEMPS IS BELOW AVERAGE.

WENT ABOVE NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE ON WIND SPEEDS. AS A LEE-SIDE TROF
DEVELOPS...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TO 16 MB ACROSS NEB. THE
GFS/EC/NAM/SREF HAVE A 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAX AND BELIEVE WE
WILL TAP INTO THE UNDERSIDE OF IT.

MIXING HEIGHTS ARTIFICIALLY TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM WHICH
HAS ITS SNOWCOVER BIAS. EVEN IF WE USE THE CONSERVATIVE GFS MIXING
HEIGHTS AROUND 2K FT...THAT STILL WOULD ALLOW FOR MIXING DOWN 30
KTS.

HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-4F FROM THE PRIOR GID FCST...ALONG AND W OF
HWY 281.

POST MORTEM: LAST NIGHT`S SNOW RISK OVER CNTRL/NRN KS ENDED UP
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WHAT THE MODELS DEPICTED. THESE TYPE OF
SITUATIONS THAT ARE DRIVEN BY JET STREAK AND FRONTAL FORCING /IN THE
MID-LEVELS/ ARE INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO FCST. THERE IS NO LOW PRES
FROM WHICH WE DERIVE OUR TRADITIONAL FCST CUES. THESE ISOLATED
NARROW SNOW BANDS HAVE VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY. THE HI-RES MESOSCALE
MODELS DEPICT THEM VERY WELL /WHEN AND IF THEY ARE CORRECT/. YOU CAN
THROW OUT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS. THEY CANT HANDLE THESE SMALL
FEATURES AND ARE WAYYYY TO BROAD WITH THEIR QPF. THE BAND DID
DEVELOP BUT IT WAS MODELED TO BECOME STATIONARY ALONG/NEAR I-70
WHICH IT DID NOT. IT WAS TRANSIENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME FRAME OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS...AS IS TYPICAL SEVERAL
PERIODS HAD HIGH/LOW TEMPS TWEAKED UPWARD OR DOWNWARD AS MUCH AS 2-5
DEGREES...BUT THE OVERALL THEME OF A TRANSITION TO MILDER WEATHER
REMAINS INTACT. THAT BEING SAID...ITS NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO BE A
CASE WHERE EACH DAY GETS PROGRESSIVELY WARMER...AS DAYS SUCH AS
WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY COULD END UP BEING EITHER
SMALL OR POTENTIALLY LARGER BUMPS IN THE ROAD. MEANWHILE...BOTH
THURSDAY AND VERY PRELIMINARILY NEXT SUNDAY BOTH LOOK LIKE THE BEST
CANDIDATES FOR THE MILDEST DAYS OF THE NEXT 7 WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 60S.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...THE MAJORITY OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD SHOULD BE
DRY...BUT 20-30 POPS CONTINUE FOR ALL OR PARTS OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A NEW SLIGHT CHANCE
HAS BEEN ADDED TO NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY DAYTIME...MAKING NOW A
TOTAL OF 4 PERIODS MENTIONING SOME RISK OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN BOTH OF THESE
WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING THE TUES
NIGHT-WED POSSIBILITY. FOR ONLY BEING A FEW DAYS AWAY...ITS STILL
TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER 1) THERE IS EVEN MUCH CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP AT ALL AND HENCE POPS KEPT LOW THUS FAR AND 2) IF PRECIP
DOES FALL...WHAT TYPE WILL IT ASSUME? KEEPING WITH THE REASONING
DISCUSSED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...HAVE KEPT ANY TUES-NIGHT WED PRECIP
TYPE AS SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW...BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SIGNS IN SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET/SOME TYPE OF WINTRY MIX COULD COME INTO PLAY HERE AS WELL.
GIVEN TIME IS STILL ON OUR SIDE HERE WITH THIS POSSIBLE ROUND OF
PRECIP STILL BEING 48+ HOURS AWAY...WILL KEEP THE BASIC TYPES FOR
NOW AND AVOID CLUTTERING THE FORECAST WITH TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
AND/OR CAUSING UNDUE CONCERN AS THE MENTION OF MIXED-PHASE WINTRY
TYPES CAN SOMETIMES DO. AS FOR POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH ANY
TUES NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PRECIP...ITS OBVIOUSLY WAY TOO EARLY TO TALK
SPECIFICS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS WITHIN 72
HOURS OF NOW HAVE TOSSED A VERY GENERIC COVERAGE OF AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1 INCH INTO THE OFFICIAL
SNOWFALL GRIDS. THE SAME SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW PRECIP TYPE ROUTE WAS
USED WITH THE FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT POPS...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE OF A TRUE SNOW EVENT WITH
LESS RISK OF MIXED-TYPES SHOULD IT OCCUR.

GETTING INTO MORE DETAIL AND STARTING WITH MONDAY
NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS UNDER
A BROAD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT THAT DEFINES MUCH OF THE
CONUS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME LOWER STRATUS COULD DEVELOP
AND STREAM NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE CWA IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BUT AM NOT SOLD ON THIS SCENARIO SO SKY COVER IS GENERALLY
AIMED INTO PARTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY BREEZES OF
AT LEAST 5-10 MPH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT
LOW TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY
MORNING BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THESE
VALUES...STILL AIMING FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 9-14 ABOVE ZERO.

FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE OVERALL STORY IN
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS INVOLVES THE GRADUAL EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
DEVELOPMENT OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE
PACIFIC COAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. WITH THE MAIN BATCH OF FORCING
STILL WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY HAVE KEPT IT
DRY...AND EVEN RAISED TEMPS 2-4 DEGREES GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT STARTS TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ZONES
IN THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THAT CLOUDS ARE NOT OVERLY
ABUNDANT...ITS POSSIBLE THAT ADVERTISED HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 30S
NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH...BUT ITS
ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE HIGHS ADVERTISED BY THE LAST FEW NAM
RUNS APPEAR WAY TOO COLD. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES GROW...BUT VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF BRING AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP OF AT LEAST SOME VARIETY
INTO THE AREA BEFORE MOVING IT OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW STRONG THE SYNOPTIC FORCING/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE WITH THIS WAVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AS THAT WILL ULTIMATELY
SPELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LEGITIMATE LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
SUCH AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM AND OTHER MODELS...OR ESSENTIALLY NOTHING
WHATSOEVER AS ADVERTISED BY THE 12Z GEM MODEL. THE PRESENCE OF
PRECIP OR LACK THEREOF WILL ALSO AFFECT HIGHS WED...AND WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING LOW OPTED TO MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS WITH
GENERALLY MID-UPPER 30S.

THURSDAY DAYTIME THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS LOOKS TO FEATURE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BEFORE GIVING WAY TO THE
NEXT POTENTIAL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AS
A RESULT...A BIT OF A TEMPERATURE ROLLER-COASTER STARTS TO DEVELOP.
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW/GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION GOING AHEAD
OF THIS DISTURBANCE ON THURS...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
AWHILE...AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH A RANGE FROM UPPER
40S-UPPER 50S. THEN FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A POTENTIALLY
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA...AND AS
A RESULT FRIDAY HIGHS WERE LOWERED 3-5 DEGREES...BUT STILL UPPER 30S
NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH FOR NOW. AS EARLIER MENTIONED...SLIGHT POPS
MAINLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH COULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW PER THE LATEST
ECMWF BUT LESS-SO THE GFS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND ASSUMING THAT FRIDAY
NIGHT PRECIP MOVES OUT BY SATURDAY DAYTIME...AS THE PATTERN ALOFT
AGAIN TRANSITIONS TO RIDGING. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO SATURDAY HIGHS
WITH A RANGE OF 40S ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF IS
COOLER THAN THIS. VERY PRELIMINARILY...SUNDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE
OUTRIGHT-WARMEST DAY OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST...AND FOR NOW HAVE
WIDESPREAD 50S IN NEB ZONES AND LOW 60S IN KS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

A SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS DURING THE
NIGHT. DURING THE MORNING...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO GET HIGH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN MARCH. IT HAS ONLY HAPPENED 5 TIMES EVER AT GRAND ISLAND AND
HASTINGS.

VULNERABLE LOW TEMP RECORDS TODAY:

GRAND ISLAND: -5 IN 1960 (TIED)
HASTINGS: -5 IN 1913 (TIED)

* BOTH OF THESE RECORDS CAN BE BROKEN IF TEMPS DROP BELOW -5F
  BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

VULNERABLE COLDEST DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TODAY:

GRAND ISLAND: 10 IN 2002 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH: 7)
HASTINGS: 11 IN 2002 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH: 7)

VULNERABLE LOW TEMP RECORDS FOR TOMORROW 3/3:

GRAND ISLAND: -16 IN 1960
HASTINGS: -10 IN 1960

ALL-TIME COLDEST HIGH TEMPS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH:

GRAND ISLAND: 4 ON 3/10/1948
HASTINGS: 3 ON 3/11/1948

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     061>064-073>076.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ060-072-077-
     082>087.

KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

 449 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
VCSH AT GUP/AEG/ABQ/SAF AND LVS...AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE SAME
SITES EXCEPT LVS. WAVE IMPACTING FMN/GUP NOW AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVE...THEN TRANSITION OVER CENTRAL SITES THIS EVENING
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN FINISH ITS SWEEP OF THE AREA BTWN 12Z
TO 15Z WED ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WAVE
PASSAGE AND WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL REACH FAR NE NM AROUND 06Z AND MOVE RAPIDLY S
LATE TONIGHT...REACHING ROW SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR AND MTN
TOP OBSCD IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HRS DURING THE WAVE PASSAGE. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THICK CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TODAY WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER IN THE EAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS
IT HAS BEEN. THURSDAY WILL SEE A STRONG WARMING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SLIDES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND. MORE RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING UPPER WAVE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS FAST AND MOISTURE RICH FLOW EJECTS EAST
OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS STARTED TRENDING STRONGER WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON THE QPF SIDE OF THINGS LAST NIGHT AND THAT TREND
CONTINUES. THE LATEST HRRR AND 18Z NAM ARE INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT LOW END PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NM
THIS EVENING. EVEN THE ABQ AND SAF METRO AREA ARE PROGGED TO PICK
UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS. HAVE TRENDED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN FOR THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF CHANCE IN SURROUNDING
LOWER ELEVATIONS. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY AS WELL ABOVE
7500 FEET. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PLUNGING INTO THE NE PLAINS
TONIGHT WILL FOCUS ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIP ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER. WINDS WILL ALSO BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED ADVISORY
CRITERIA IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HIGHLIGHTS DUE TO SHORT DURATION.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER OUT EAST AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
FILTER THROUGH THE AREA. A SUNNIER DAY THAN TODAY IS ON TAP MOST
AREAS HOWEVER STILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND
WINDS MIXING OVER THE AREA. THE EAST WILL PUSH LOW TO MID 70S ONCE
AGAIN.

EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A STORM SYSTEM DIVING SE OUT THE PACIFIC NW INTO NM FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAIN THE BIG
QUESTION WITH THIS EVENT. A DEEP COLD POOL OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
MAY ALLOW FOR GAP WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST ON CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO DELIVER THE BEST PRECIP
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE AS FAR WEST AS THE
DIVIDE IS POSSIBLE. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP WITH THIS SYSTEM SO DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD AT WORK.
DAYTIME INSTABILITY BENEATH THE COLD CORE WILL OFFER THE BEST SHOT
OF PRECIP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME STORMS SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED WIND FORECAST. INCREASED SPEEDS TO
MATCH BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON FRIDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE
COMING IN A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF THE FLOW
ALOFT/MIXING ON THAT DAY. ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT/S
COLD FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
PRETTY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND WOULD COINCIDE WITH A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE ALSO
INCREASED WITH THE PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF AND
NAM ARE ALL BULLISH FOR AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM
THIS QUICK HITTING SYSTEM ACROSS THE JEMEZ/LOWER SAN JUAN MTNS.
SUSPECT THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF THE SANDIAS
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL GET SOME MEASURABLE AS WELL. UNSURE
HOW MUCH WETTING...GREATER THAN TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT CANT RULE IT
OUT.

AS MENTIONED...PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL EFFECTS WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST QUARTER. A
SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTHWARD. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE QUITE STRONG ALONG THIS FRONTAL PUSH BUT THE FURTHER WEST YOU
GET...LESS WIND. WEDNESDAY SPEEDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MUCH WEAKER. VENTILATION RATES
WILL LOWER ACROSS MOST WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS. A STRONGER MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL TRIED TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AND COULD
AFFECT FAR WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL AS A RESULT. SHARPLY ACROSS
SOME AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP AREAWIDE AND EXPECTING ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MODERATE WIND FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. BELOW 15 PCT RH
VALUES SHOW UP ACROSS MANY OF THE LOWLAND AREAS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH LOWER RH WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA
ROSA BUT SHOULD BE LOCALIZED IN NATURE. LOOKING FOR A FEW STRONGER
BREEZES ACROSS THE HIGHER CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL.

THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL TAKE AIM ON THE AREA FRIDAY. WINDS
ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND COMBINE WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
BREEZINESS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO ADOPTED THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NAM SOLUTION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE AN INTERESTING WEATHER
DAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OR HIGHER DEWPOINTS FLOWING IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE BACK DOOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. LOOKING AT MID/UPPER
TEEN RH VALUES ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PLAINS. NOT LOOKING AT ANY CRITICAL CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME EVEN.

MODELS STILL SHOW A STRENGTHENING TROUGH WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR A
WETTING PRECIPITATION EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT AS THE PREVIOUS WEEKEND ONE. THE COLD FRONTAL PUSH
ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HELP CONCENTRATE SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION
THERE. ALSO EXPECT SOME POCKETS ACROSS THE NORTH AND PERHAPS EVEN
SOUTHWEST AREAS. EITHER WAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER. CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHTNING
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. SNOW LEVELS ALSO APPEAR TO BE LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
PASSAGE AND SNOW MELT WOULD HELP MOISTEN THE FUELS A BIT MORE.

A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS TO PUSH OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. SUSPECT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COME IN A LITTLE HIGHER
AS WE GET NEARER TO THAT PERIOD BECAUSE MIXING WILL BE LOWER AND
THUS KEEP SFC DEWPOINTS FROM GETTING TOO LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE ISNT
THE BEST FOR THE RH FORECAST ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
THE PACIFIC LOW CAN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

 506 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFF OF THE
COAST. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE ARCTIC COLD WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA STRETCHING FROM NEAR COLUMBIA SC TO FRYING PAN
SHOALS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC
THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIP HAS TRANSITIONED TO RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX FROM
KINSTON TO MANTEO AND NORTH...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOTED
ON A WEBCAM ALONG HWY 12 NEAR DUCK. BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THIS EVENING EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
FALL DURING THIS TIME...EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHICH COULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A 3-6C WARM NOSE PERSISTING THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING...EXPECT THE RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SLEET ALONG
WITH WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS THE SFC COLD POOL WILL QUICKLY
DEEPEN TO AROUND 3KFT. MOST OF THE HEAVIEST QPF FELL AS RAIN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO COLD AIR ARRIVAL. THERE WILL BE
LIMITED TIME FROM WHEN THE THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR SLEET TO WHEN
RAPID DRYING COMMENCES IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BRINGING A TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THEREFORE...SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SLEET AND
TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. THERMAL PROFILES FOR
AREAS FROM AROUND RODANTHE SOUTH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS SUGGEST
MAINLY RAIN FOR THESE AREAS...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SLEET
LATE. HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SLEET AND ICE. REFREEZING OF
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LATEST HRRR AND RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP
PATTERN...WITH SOME INLAND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HWY 64 BECOMING MORE
PATCHY IN NATURE WHILE NORTH OF HWY 64 REMAINS IN GREATER COVERAGE
OF WINTRY MIX. WITH BEST UPPER LIFT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIP APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUES MORNING.

STRONG CAA WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS WINDS GUST 35 TO 45 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PAMLICO
SOUND BUT WITH THE SHORT DURATION ONLY AROUND 6-9 HOURS NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH IS
WHAT IS INDICATED ON THE CERA WEBSITE.

TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND TONIGHT UNDER STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR
LINGERING DRIZZLE/RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TUES
WITH A STRONG INVERSION 1-2KFT FT ALOFT WITH NEAR SATURATION UP TO
8-9K FT. COLD MORNING TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S
BUT EXPECT TEMPS NEAR FREEZING FOR INLAND LOCATIONS BY MID MORNING.
WILL MAINTAIN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE REGION AS BLACK
ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADS CONTINUING TO BRING
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND HELP TO WRAP AROUND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
REMAIN SATURATED BELOW 8-9K FT TOMORROW SO EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
DURING THE DAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY WAS
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE UPPER 30S FOR INLAND SECTIONS TO MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NAM/ECMWF MODEL BLEND USED FOR
TUE NIGHT-WED...THEN ECMWF/GFS/WPC BLEND FOR THU-MONDAY. ACTIVE
SRN STREAM WITH COLD HIGH PRES WEDGED IN OVER AREA WILL PRODUCE COOL
AND WET PERIOD THROUGH END OF WEEK...THEN SOME MODERATION OVER
WEEKEND WITH RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT.

ANOTHER WEAK SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA FROM SW TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. MODELS INDICATE MAIN THREAT OF PCPN WILL BE ALONG COAST
CLOSER TO BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE BUT
CONTINUE TO CAP AT 50% DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. 30% CHANCE POPS FOR
COASTAL PLAINS AND WILL MENTION PSBL FREEZING RAIN THERE WITH MIN
TEMPS 30-32. NO ICING ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THREAT WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

ADDITIONAL WEAK ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORM SW WED AFTN
AND WED NIGHT BUT MODELS INDICATE PCPN REMAINING MAINLY
OFFSHORE...THUS WILL CONTINUE ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR COAST. NO
P-TYPE ISSUES EXPECTED WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.

12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NEXT SYSTEM
WITH BOTH NOW INDICATING OPEN TROF EVOLVING INTO UPR LOW MOVING
ACROSS JUST S OF AREA THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC
LOW MOVING OUT OF GULFMEX AND DEEPENING JUST S OF AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE LATE FRI NIGHT...PRODUCING NOR`EASTER TYPE
CONDITIONS FOR ERN NC. GDNC INDICATES ATMOS WILL BE WARMER ENOUGH
FOR ALL RAIN...BUT PROLONGED NE WINDS MAY RESULT IN HIGH SURF AND
COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES...AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN. COASTAL SECTIONS COULD ALSO SEE PERIOD OF 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS
AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. CONTINUED HIGHEST POPS AT LIKELY
FOR ALL AREAS THU AFTN INTO FRIDAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING FROM W TO E
FRI NIGHT.

IN WAKE OF UPR LOW...RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SAT. WEAK NRN STREAM SHRT WV WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. RIDGING
AND DRY AGAIN FOR MONDAY.

COOL WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS 5-10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE
NIGHT-FRI...THEN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR SAT-MON.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM MON...COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED ALL TAF SITES WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS BEING OBSERVED. CEILING
HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN LOWERING WITHIN THE PAST HOUR TO MVFR...WITH
CEILING HEIGHTS TO LOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF PRECIP ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. SFC TEMPS WILL FALL TO BELOW FREEZING LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING WHILE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING...THEN
FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING WITH DRYING ALOFT. EXPECTING
PRECIP TO END APPROX BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL POOR FLYING WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COOL WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY KEEP SUB-VFR
CIGS OVER MOST OF AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN BE
REINFORCED FOR WDSPRD PCPN WITH COASTAL SFC LOW THU INTO FRIDAY
NIGY. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN PSBL LATE TUE NIGHT FOR KPGV AND
KISO. GUSTY NE WINDS PSBL FOR KOAJ AND KEWN THU INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR SAT WITH RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 5 PM MONDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE STRONG
N/NE WINDS 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT AND SEAS ELEVATED 9-11 FT
FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. STRONG CAA IN NLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TUESDAY. GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BECOME REPLACED WITH SCAS LATE TONIGHT FOR ELEVATED SEAS AND GUSTY
WINDS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS HAD A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON HIGH SEAS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS WHILE THE 12Z WAVEWATCH REMAINS 3-4 FT TOO
LOW...THUS USED LOCAL SWAN FOR SHORT TERM SEAS FORECAST. SEAS
10-13 FT WILL SUBSIDE 7-10 FT TUESDAY...WITH 4-7 FT FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUNDAY...VERY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT SAT. NE WINDS DIMINISH EARLY TUE NIGT...BUT
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY WED MORNING WITH WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF AT LEAST SCA CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY
FOR THU-FRI AS SLOW MOVING NOR`EASTER TYPE LOW MOVES ALONG JUST S
AND SE OF WATERS. PER LONG-TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...HIGH SURF...BEACH
EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IF LOW MOVES AS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
IN BETTER BUT STILL ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

CONTINUED TO USE NWPS THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN LEANED TO WW3 FOR
REST OF PERIOD. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT AND MAY DROP BELOW 6 FT
FOR A PERIOD...BUT WILL THEN BUILD AGAIN WED AND THU...WITH
PROLONGED PERIOD OF AT LEAST 8-11 FT SEAS FOR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SEAS SUBSIDING FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS LOW MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BUT 6 FT
HEIGHTS LIKELY LINGERING OUTER PORTIONS NRN WATERS THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ090>095-
     098.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK/DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BM/SK
MARINE...JBM/DAG





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 327 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH
MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SOME LIGHT FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY...CONTINUING
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
THE COAST. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE COAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY STEAMING SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH SOME 20 DEGREE SPREAD IN CURRENT TEMPS BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN FORECAST/MODELED...A FACT THAT MAY BE
QUITE RELEVANT TO THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS THE COLD AIR
CONTINUES ITS CHARGE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO SUPPORT FREEZING
RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN SLEET. THIS WILL HAPPEN EARLIEST OVER NRN
ZONES...IN THE 00Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME. TROUBLE IS...THIS IS THE SAME
TIME THAT THE MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT...AND RATHER EMPHATICALLY.
THUS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER A GIVEN AREA
APPEARS TO BE VERY SHORT IN NATURE...IF AT ALL. OVERALL POPS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOWN TO TAPER OFF TO
NON-MEASURABLE MORE QUICKLY. WHAT FORECASTS DO SHOW WELL BETWEEN
VARIOUS MODELS IS A CONTINUED SATURATION THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KFT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE THERE BEING A DRY MID LAYER AND NO REAL LIFT
TO SPEAK OF THIS IMPLIES THAT THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FROM TIME TO TIME JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AREA-WIDE. OPERATIONAL MODELS
DO INDICATE AS SUCH AND IT HAS BEEN IN PREV FORECAST SO IT WILL BE
MAINTAINED HERE. BUT EVEN THE LIKELY OVERDONE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOW NO MEASURABLE PRECIP AND SREF PROBS OF 0.01 DROP OFF COMPLETELY
BY 06Z. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AND GOES DRY BY 01Z...BARELY INTO THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR PTYPE ISSUES. THIS ALL PAIRED WITH THE RECENT WARM WEATHER WE
HAVE BEEN STRESSING THAT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE
ANTICIPATED. THIS HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO HANDLE
THE CURRENT WW ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR NRN ROW OF COUNTIES. WAS QUITE
TEMPTED TO DROP IT...BUT WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT THAT DECISION ESP
SINCE JUST A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF FZRA WOULD NECESSITATE IT BEING
IN EFFECT AND ONE WOULD HATE TO LOWER IT ONLY TO HAVE IT
SUBSEQUENTLY RE-ISSUED IN SUCH A SHORT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A HIGHLY UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS AN ARCTIC FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE WHILE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BANKED ALONG THE EAST
COAST BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE. ALOFT...SW FLOW
AHEAD DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WARM/MOIST FLOW
ABOVE THE SURFACE WEDGE...WHILE SOME ENHANCED CONFLUENCE WILL
ACTUALLY HELP REINFORCE ITS STRENGTH. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK
TUESDAY REVOLVES AROUND WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST...IF NOT
ALL...OF THE CWA...WHILE TEMPS BETWEEN 950MB AND 850MB WARM TO +2C
TO +4C. MOIST LOW LEVELS OF THE COLUMN PERSIST ALL OF TUESDAY...BUT
VERY DRY AIR EXISTS ABOVE 850MB...SUCH THAT PWATS REMAIN RATHER
LOW...AROUND ONE-HALF INCH. SO THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP...EVEN MORE DETERMINING
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING SEVERAL HOURS INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPS ONLY
VERY SLOWLY WARM...LIKELY MUCH SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS
AND REINFORCING WEDGE. STILL...WILL CARRY ZL FOR ALL ZONES INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING MAYBE A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTH.
AGAIN...AM CONCERNED ABOUT LACK OF FORCING (ISENTROPIC LIFT IS VERY
WEAK) AND THE DRY AIR ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP QPF AT 0 FOR NOW. THIS IS
A VERY BORDERLINE SITUATION HOWEVER...SINCE SIMPLY A TRACE OF ZR
REQUIRES A WW.Y...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A
FLUID SITUATION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR POTENTIAL
EXPANSION OF CURRENT WW.Y TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE CWA.

A MORE IMPRESSIVE AREA OF PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY OVERHEAD IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. FORECAST PROFILES
SATURATE CONSIDERABLY...AND MOS P12/P24 VALUES SKYROCKET TO THE HIGH
LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS
QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN THE GFS ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL NOT BE AS
AGGRESSIVE AS GFS IS SHOWING FOR QPF...BUT DEFINITELY BETTER RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WED THAN TUESDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY...TEMPS
WILL HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO JUST A COLD
RAIN IS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS LATE
WEDNESDAY...BUT RENEWED HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD
AND ON THURSDAY AS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. INHERITED POP SHOWS INCREASING TO HIGH-CHC FROM
SW TO NE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND FEEL THIS IS WARRANTED
SO WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL INCREASE TO THE WED NIGHT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS THE REINFORCING WEDGE
COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL PREVENT MUCH WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS WILL PEAK ONLY IN THE 30S MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW 40S POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. THIS IS 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE! LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS FOR
MINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME WARMING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...RISING INTO THE MID/UPR 40S...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID/UPR 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW SHOULD BE TAKING
SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY...SPREADING PLENTY OF THICK
CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH 12Z GFS WAS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF REGARDING THE DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. I HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80
PERCENT AND STORM-TOTAL QPF TO NEAR 1 INCH PENDING CONFIRMATION
FROM ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF MODEL RUNS.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ROLL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND PERIODS OF LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
RAIN TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE 12Z GFS LOOKED SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF WAS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AS IT BOMBS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE NC COAST. ROUGHLY 20 PERCENT OF
THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOWED A STRONG SURFACE LOW LIKE THE
12Z ECMWF SITTING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY...SO THIS IDEA WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ASSUMING WE GET SOME SUNSHINE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY HIGHS SHOULD REACH 53-57...COOLEST AT
THE COAST. (OF COURSE IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS RIGHT AND WE STAY CLOUDY/
RAINY/WINDY MOST OF THE DAY THESE HIGHS COULD BE 10 DEGREES TOO
OPTIMISTIC)

SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.
HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY WILL SEEM WONDERFUL AFTER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS PLUS THE DAYTIME SEABREEZE WORKING
TOGETHER TO KEEP THE BEACHES CONSIDERABLY COOLER COMPARED TO INLAND
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ALOFT WITH
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE 12Z GFS WAS MUCH
FARTHER EAST THAN EITHER OF TODAY`S ECWMF RUNS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CUTTING OFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GOING WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION MEANS WE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNLESS A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG A SOUTHWARD-MOVING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN
THE EAST COAST SUNDAY EVENING. THIS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE THE
RESULT OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD BRING LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREA OF RAIN NOW IMPACTING KFLO AND KLBT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR VISIBILITIES. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO WORK IT
WAY TO THE COASTAL TAFS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AND IT WILL BRING IN IFR CONDITIONS AS CEILINGS
WILL LOWER LATER TODAY AND IN THE OVERNIGHT AREA. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 06 UTC AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
FROM 06 TO 12 UTC TUESDAY. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MVFR RANGE INLAND BY EARLY
TUESDAY AND MID-MORNING AT THE COAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE PRECIPITATION/IFR WED AND THURS EVNG THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA STILL IN THE PREFRONTAL SWRLY
FLOW SAVE FOR PERHAPS NRN PENDER WATERS. 41013 SEEING WINDS CRANK UP
INTO 25 TO 30 KT RANGE...THE LATTER GENERALLY GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS THAN
PREVIOUS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE FREQUENT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING GALE WARNING UP. EVEN PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD
MENTIONED THAT IT WAS A MARGINAL CASE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS GOING TO HAVE LITTLE SUPPORT FROM ALOFT AS WINDS ALOFT STAY
RATHER LACKLUSTER AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...BOTH
OF WHICH WILL MEAN NO MIXING DOWN OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS USUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...WITH A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
ALONG THE COAST BEHIND IT. THIS WEDGE WILL CONTROL THE LOCAL WIND
TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A NE DIRECTION PERSISTENT
THROUGH MID-WEEK. SPEEDS WILL CHANGE WITH THE FLUCTUATING
GRADIENT...EASING FROM 15-25 KTS EARLY TUESDAY TO 10-15 KTS LATE
TUESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 15-20 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS
WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A 6-7 NE WIND WAVE...WITH AMPLITUDES
FALLING FROM 4-7 FT EARLY...TO 3-5 FT MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND
RISING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 3-6 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THURSDAY. VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG A LINE FROM
FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY MORNING CONSOLIDATING INTO A
SINGLE LOW ABOUT 100 MILES OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY
EVENING. THE LOW SHOULD STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT FOLLOWS THE GULF
STREAM NORTHEASTWARD. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST/NORTH WINDS AND SEAS.

MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE LOW FRIDAY: THE 12Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF TAKE THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH DIMINISHING IMPACTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT
HOWEVER...SLOWING THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ON
FRIDAY AS IT BOMBS THE STORM DOWN TO BELOW 1000 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE
WHILE OVER THE WARM WATER SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THIS SCENARIO
COULD BRING NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS BY SATURDAY THE
LOW SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND QUICKLY DIMINISHING
SEAS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     105-106.

MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...MBB/DRH
MARINE...TRA/JDW/MBB









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

 113 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFF OF THE COAST. A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM MON...MID MORNING UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. ADJUSTED POPS WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS.
MODELS ARE INDICATING PRECIP STARTING OUR WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
APPROX 16Z...SO THEREFORE DECREASED POPS ALONG HWY 64 AND EAST OF
HWY 17 TO SLIGHTLY CHANCE.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE ARTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHING
ACROSS GOLDSBORO TO CEDAR ISLAND. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
THE AREA OF LOW PRES PUSHING OFF CAPE FEAR THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DAMPENING SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
AROUND 09Z...ALONG THE HIGHWAY 70 CORRIDOR AROUND 15Z AND PUSHING
SOUTH OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
18Z MON-00Z TUE AND EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL DURING THIS
TIME...EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH COULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. INITIALLY PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN...BUT STRONG CAA ADVECTION WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING A WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP FROM N TO
S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH A 3-6C WARM NOSE PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SLEET
ALONG WITH WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS THE SFC COLD POOL WILL
QUICKLY DEEPEN TO AROUND 3FT. MODEL/WPC AVERAGE STORM TOTAL LIQUID
QPF IS AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH. THERE WILL BE
LIMITED TIME FROM WHEN THE THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR SLEET TO WHEN
RAPID DRYING COMMENCES IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BRINGING A TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THEREFORE...SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SLEET AND
TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. THERMAL PROFILES FOR
AREAS FROM AROUND RODANTHE SOUTH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS SUGGEST
MAINLY RAIN FOR THESE AREAS...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SLEET
LATE. HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SLEET AND ICE.

STRONG CAA WILL BRING GUSTY NLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
FROPA AND COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND PARTS OF DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY AND
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PAMLICO
SOUND BUT WITH THE SHORT DURATION ONLY AROUND 6-9 HRS NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH MORE THAN 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH IS WHAT IS
INDICATED ON THE CERA WEBSITE.

TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH RAPID COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS CURRENTLY AROUND 48-58 ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL THROUGH THE 40S AND
INTO THE 30S AFTER FROPA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE SPREAD IN
HIGHS TODAY WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS LIKELY WARMING TO AROUND 60
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL REACH
THEIR HIGHS AROUND 50 AROUND DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE
AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING AND MID LEVEL DRYING ENDING BEST PRECIP PROCESSES.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS MOST AREAS BUT ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
THE 20S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COAST...WITH BLACK ICE
POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADS CONTINUING TO BRING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. ANY
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST AS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS THRU
THE DAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...BY SEVERAL DEGREES...AND
KEEP SKIES RATHER CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER OFFSHORE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...HAVE KEPT A SMALL RISK OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG
AS PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A HIGH
COVERAGE OF RAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH LIKELY GUSTY WINDS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
FOR SATURDAY. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER QUICK
SHOT OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED ALL TAF SITES WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS BEING OBSERVED. CEILING
HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN LOWERING WITHIN THE PAST HOUR TO MVFR...WITH
CEILING HEIGHTS TO LOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF PRECIP ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. SFC TEMPS WILL FALL TO BELOW FREEZING LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING WHILE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING...THEN
FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING WITH DRYING ALOFT. EXPECTING
PRECIP TO END APPROX BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS THAN OPTIMAL
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH REDUCED CEILINGS AND VSBYS
LIKELY FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. THE INITIAL BAND OF
RAIN WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THRU WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONGER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
BE LIKELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRIER AIR AND MORE VFR CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...CURRENT MARINE IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE ARTIC COLD FRONT ALONG CEDAR ISLAND. NORTH OF
CEDAR ISLAND...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NE 15 TO 20 KTS GUSTING UP TO
27 KTS. SEAS HAVE INCREASED IN OUR NORTHERN MARINE ZONE...5 TO 6 FT. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WINDS REMAIN SW 10-20 KTS.


COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS...SOUTH OF THE REGION AROUND 2 PM. STRONG CAA IN NLY FLOW
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS AROUND
35-40 KT.

USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS NWPS AND WAVEWATCH FOR SEAS...WEIGHING
HIGHER TOWARD NWPS. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT
WITH CAA SURGE...LIKELY PEAKING AT 10-12 FT NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY AS A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONG SMALL CRAFT AND
POTENTIAL GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...SEAS WILL
BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 8 TO 9 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS BY SATURDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ090>095-098.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ135-152-154-156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/BM
SHORT TERM...SK/BM
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK/BM
MARINE...CTC/SK/BM







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

 1021 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFF OF THE COAST. A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM MON...MID MORNING UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. ADJUSTED POPS WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS.
MODELS ARE INDICATING PRECIP STARTING OUR WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
APPROX 16Z...SO THEREFORE DECREASED POPS ALONG HWY 64 AND EAST OF
HWY 17 TO SLIGHTLY CHANCE.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE ARTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHING
ACROSS GOLDSBORO TO CEDAR ISLAND. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
THE AREA OF LOW PRES PUSHING OFF CAPE FEAR THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DAMPENING SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
AROUND 09Z...ALONG THE HIGHWAY 70 CORRIDOR AROUND 15Z AND PUSHING
SOUTH OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
18Z MON-00Z TUE AND EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL DURING THIS
TIME...EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH COULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. INITIALLY PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN...BUT STRONG CAA ADVECTION WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING A WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP FROM N TO
S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH A 3-6C WARM NOSE PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SLEET
ALONG WITH WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS THE SFC COLD POOL WILL
QUICKLY DEEPEN TO AROUND 3FT. MODEL/WPC AVERAGE STORM TOTAL LIQUID
QPF IS AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH. THERE WILL BE
LIMITED TIME FROM WHEN THE THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR SLEET TO WHEN
RAPID DRYING COMMENCES IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BRINGING A TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THEREFORE...SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SLEET AND
TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. THERMAL PROFILES FOR
AREAS FROM AROUND RODANTHE SOUTH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS SUGGEST
MAINLY RAIN FOR THESE AREAS...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SLEET
LATE. HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SLEET AND ICE.

STRONG CAA WILL BRING GUSTY NLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
FROPA AND COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND PARTS OF DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY AND
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PAMLICO
SOUND BUT WITH THE SHORT DURATION ONLY AROUND 6-9 HRS NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH MORE THAN 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH IS WHAT IS
INDICATED ON THE CERA WEBSITE.

TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH RAPID COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS CURRENTLY AROUND 48-58 ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL THROUGH THE 40S AND
INTO THE 30S AFTER FROPA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE SPREAD IN
HIGHS TODAY WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS LIKELY WARMING TO AROUND 60
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL REACH
THEIR HIGHS AROUND 50 AROUND DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE
AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING AND MID LEVEL DRYING ENDING BEST PRECIP PROCESSES.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS MOST AREAS BUT ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
THE 20S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COAST...WITH BLACK ICE
POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADS CONTINUING TO BRING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. ANY
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST AS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS THRU
THE DAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...BY SEVERAL DEGREES...AND
KEEP SKIES RATHER CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER OFFSHORE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...HAVE KEPT A SMALL RISK OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG
AS PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A HIGH
COVERAGE OF RAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH LIKELY GUSTY WINDS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
FOR SATURDAY. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER QUICK
SHOT OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH LIGHT S/SW FLOW. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ALONG THE HIGHWAY 264
CORRIDOR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS RTES THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA IN NLY FLOW. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR
WITH -RA DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 14-17Z...THEN LOWER
TO IFR BETWEEN 19-23Z AS PRECIP RATES INCREASE. SFC TEMPS QUICKLY
FALL TO BELOW FREEZING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHILE TEMPS ALOFT
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
EVENING WITH DRYING ALOFT. STRONG NLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20-30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS THAN OPTIMAL
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH REDUCED CEILINGS AND VSBYS
LIKELY FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. THE INITIAL BAND OF
RAIN WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THRU WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONGER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
BE LIKELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRIER AIR AND MORE VFR CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...CURRENT MARINE IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE ARTIC COLD FRONT ALONG CEDAR ISLAND. NORTH OF
CEDAR ISLAND...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NE 15 TO 20 KTS GUSTING UP TO
27 KTS. SEAS HAVE INCREASED IN OUR NORTHERN MARINE ZONE...5 TO 6 FT. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WINDS REMAIN SW 10-20 KTS.


COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS...SOUTH OF THE REGION AROUND 2 PM. STRONG CAA IN NLY FLOW
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS AROUND
35-40 KT.

USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS NWPS AND WAVEWATCH FOR SEAS...WEIGHING
HIGHER TOWARD NWPS. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT
WITH CAA SURGE...LIKELY PEAKING AT 10-12 FT NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY AS A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONG SMALL CRAFT AND
POTENTIAL GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...SEAS WILL
BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 8 TO 9 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS BY SATURDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NCZ090>095-098.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ135-152-154-156-158.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/BM
SHORT TERM...SK/BM
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK/BM







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 1024 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.AVIATION...
SNOW WILL EXIT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE 3 AM LEAVING MVFR CEILINGS
AND DECREASING NORTH WINDS BEHIND. GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN GENERAL
WILL DIMINISH BEFORE SUNRISE AND BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTER
DAYBREAK. CEILINGS WILL RISE ABOVE MVFR CATEGORY BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/

UPDATE...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THE DRY SLOT
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW HAS EFFECTIVELY ENDED SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING REPORTED
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DESPITE THE LACK
OF RADAR ECHOES. FARTHER NORTH... THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WITH
SOME RECENT REDEVELOPMENT OBSERVED IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MAY
STILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
UNDERNEATH THE PIVOT POINT OF THE PRECIPITATION BANDS IN THE
NORTH. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WARNING IN PLACE IN THE NORTH AT THIS
TIME /ALTHOUGH WE HAD WHITTLED AWAY AT THE HEADLINES EARLIER THIS
EVENING/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/

AVIATION...
THE LAST BAND OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL MOVE EAST OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE
MORNING MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A MULTI-FACETED WINTER WEATHER MESS CONTINUES TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. WV SATELLITE SHOWS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DEEPENING ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WITH
WELL PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ENTERING WRN OK...AND AREA OF
DEFORMATION/BANDED SNOW OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. AHEAD OF THIS
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR...SCT SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTAINING HAIL CONTINUE. INSTABILITY REMAINS
TOO MARGINAL FOR SEVERE HAIL...BUT SEVERAL REPORTS OF DIMES AND
NICKELS HAVE COME IN. EXPECT THE LIKLIHOOD OF HAIL TO WANE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT HEAVY SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOOMERS
THAT HAPPEN TO AFFECT YOUR LOCATION. IN FACT...SLEETFALL RATES OF
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE PROBABLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTIVE CORES. HOWEVER...THESE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN...AND EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SLEET AND SNOW TO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RES HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
PERHAPS THE HEAVIEST SLEET WILL FALL OVER EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OR GREATER SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA WARRANTED A WINTER STORM WARNING. AREAS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
HAVE CERTAINLY SEEN SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT WSW CRITERIA WILL BE MET ON A LARGE SCALE...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OVER
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNING IN THESE AREAS...THOUGH SEVERAL MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIER SNOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH...AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.

THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CARRY INTO THE
WEE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. ONCE WE GET TO SUNRISE TOMORROW...THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.
SINGLE DIGIT TO NEAR ZERO LOWS ARE FORECAST OVER A GOOD PART OF
OKLAHOMA...WITH LOWER TEENS OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. THIS COMBINED WITH NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FROM NEAR ZERO SOUTH TO -15 DEGREES NORTH. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO
THE 20S AND 30S TOMORROW...SO DON`T EXPECT A LOT OF MELTING. ROAD
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS RIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ONCE WE GET THROUGH TOMORROW...THINGS ARE LOOKING UP. YES...IT
WILL STILL BE CHILLY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS POSITIVE
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO. MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIP
THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS SHOULD MAINLY FALL IN LIQUID FORM...THOUGH
PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY GET A RAIN/SNOW MIX. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM EACH DAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR JUST IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WELCOME TO WINTER IN MARCH
EVERYONE!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK   7  24  17  46 /  50   0  10  10
HOBART OK          5  27  18  49 /  30   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  12  32  22  50 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           -2  25  19  48 /  60   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK      3  20  13  41 / 100   0  10   0
DURANT OK         13  28  23  46 /  30   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ013-
     017>020-023>032-040>043-046>048-050>052.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR OKZ004>036-038-
     040-042.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ004>008-
     010>012.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

 800 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED SNOW TOTALS ON A LINE FROM LEOLA TO CLEAR LAKE THIS
EVENING. A MODERATE BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CLARK..HAMLIN..AND DEUEL COUNTIES. THESE AREAS COULD SEE ANOTHER
TWO INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF. NORTH OF THIS BAND
UP TO 1 INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SNOW
FINALLY EXITS THE WHOLE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. THE BACK EDGE HAS BEEN
FILLING IN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO AND ONLY THE HRRR HAS REALLY
CAPTURED THIS ENHANCEMENT. WILL INCREASE POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR
BROWN COUNTY EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THANKS TO THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS PM. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
FORCING ABOUT THIS TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD...HOWEVER
HAVE YET TO SEE ANY REAL ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES OR ENHANCEMENTS ON
IR SATELLITE. ALSO...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE
EXPECTATION FOR ANY HEAVIER BAND. WITH ONLY AN INCH OR LESS
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE CWA THANKS TO ONLY SPORADIC HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS AND MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING AS PLATES...CUT BACK ON SNOW
ACCUMULATION...GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS MUCH ROSIER. WEAK WARM ADVECTION
DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH H85/925 TEMPERATURES ONLY SHOW A
MODICUM OF IMPROVEMENT. A MUCH BETTER MIXING ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
FOR THURSDAY WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND A VERY SHALLOW
INVERSION. ANY SNOW COVER REALIZED OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT LAST
VERY FAR INTO THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY...HOWEVER MIXING WILL KEEP US FROM BOTTOMING OUT BELOW
ZERO.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AM WILL REMAIN LOW
DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAINLY DUE TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT
AND MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST ON MONDAY AS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA...BUT THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE NORTH OF THE STATE.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
THE WARMEST AIR LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS. HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S WILL BE COMMON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...THEN WILL SEE MAINLY 30S AND 40S SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS WEST RIVER POSSIBLY REACHING 60 DEGREES
ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF NEAR KMBG/KABR OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. MVFR
CIGS AND IFR VSBYS HAVE BEEN COMMON WITH THE SNOW. VSBYS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LOOK FOR CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

 551 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
A LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING. THE RUC IS HANDLING THIS MAIN AREA OF PRECIP FAIRLY
WELL...SO EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TAPERING OFF IN KMBG/KABR BY 1Z.
HOWEVER THERE ARE TWO ADDITIONAL BANDS...ONE OVER WESTERN SD AND
ANOTHER MOVING SOUTHEAST ACRSS ND THAT ONLY THE NAM12 SEEMS TO
HAVE PICKED UP ON AT ALL. ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE THE WESTERN BAND
WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THIS CWA WHILE THE NORTHERN BAND
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE EASTERN CWA. GRIDS COVER THAT
SOLUTION WELL BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT NORTHERN BAND AS IT
SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE WEST THAN THE NAM INDICATES AND MAY
ACTUALLY ENTER SD BETWEEN KMBG AND KABR.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THANKS TO THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS PM. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
FORCING ABOUT THIS TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD...HOWEVER
HAVE YET TO SEE ANY REAL ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES OR ENHANCEMENTS ON
IR SATELLITE. ALSO...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE
EXPECTATION FOR ANY HEAVIER BAND. WITH ONLY AN INCH OR LESS
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE CWA THANKS TO ONLY SPORADIC HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS AND MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING AS PLATES...CUT BACK ON SNOW
ACCUMULATION...GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS MUCH ROSIER. WEAK WARM ADVECTION
DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH H85/925 TEMPERATURES ONLY SHOW A
MODICUM OF IMPROVEMENT. A MUCH BETTER MIXING ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
FOR THURSDAY WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND A VERY SHALLOW
INVERSION. ANY SNOW COVER REALIZED OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT LAST
VERY FAR INTO THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY...HOWEVER MIXING WILL KEEP US FROM BOTTOMING OUT BELOW
ZERO.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AM WILL REMAIN LOW
DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAINLY DUE TO A LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT
AND MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST ON MONDAY AS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA...BUT THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE NORTH OF THE STATE.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
THE WARMEST AIR LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS. HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S WILL BE COMMON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...THEN WILL SEE MAINLY 30S AND 40S SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS WEST RIVER POSSIBLY REACHING 60 DEGREES
ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF NEAR KMBG/KABR OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. MVFR
CIGS AND IFR VSBYS HAVE BEEN COMMON WITH THE SNOW. VSBYS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LOOK FOR CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

 341 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
TO OVERCOME AND THUS WILL KEEP OUT ANY POPS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME FLURRIES THAT MAKE IT THROUGH THE DRY AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
OTHER QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER WE SEE ANY LOW STRATUS FORM.
NAM..GFS...HRRR AND RAP ALL SHOW A PRETTY STRONG SIGNAL...AS LOW
LEVEL MOIST AIR IS ADVECTED NORTH INTO OUR COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER
NOTHING OUT THERE RIGHT NOW...AND THE GEM AND ECMWF SEEM A LITTLE
LESS AGGRESSIVE ON THE STRATUS. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. INITIALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY AS
THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HELP KEEP THINGS MIXED.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EXIT LATER
TONIGHT. IF STRATUS IS NOT AROUND OR EXITS...COULD SEE SOME SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES BY MORNING. HOWEVER IF STRATUS STICKS AROUND READINGS
WOULD BE STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO. FOR NOW
WILL GO THE MIDDLE GROUND...SINCE CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON WHICH
SOLUTION WILL VERIFY.

TOMORROW WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH THE SLOW WARMING TREND
CONTINUING...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND AN EASTERLY WIND
AROUND 10 MPH. ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRETTY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL BEING A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE AN AREA OF SNOW AFTER WE
SATURATE THE INITIALLY DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS. CURRENT THOUGHT IS
THAT WE WILL SEE AN AREA OF SNOW FORM ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE
WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BEST CHANCE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO
SPENCER IOWA LINE...CLOSER TO THE BETTER PV ADVECTION AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTERACTION. 12Z NAM SEEMED TOO SLOW AND THUS WAS NOT
USED...WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS...GEM AND ECMWF SEEMING LIKE THE WAY
TO GO. GIVEN THE PERIOD OF PRETTY GOOD OMEGA...THE HIGHER QPF OF THE
HI RES MODELS AND GEM DOES SEEM POSSIBLE. SO DID TREND QPF UP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE 18Z NAM HAS ACTUALLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE
OTHER MODELS...AND NOW MATCHES THE FORECAST PRETTY WELL. THINKING WE
SEE AN AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES SOMEWHERE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
CURRENT BEST GUESS BEING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
COUNTIES...WITH GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ELSEWHERE. MODELS TODAY HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST WITH QPF INTO THE AREA OF BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL FALL.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...ALLOWING THE LIGHT
SNOWFALL LINGERING ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF TO COME TO AN END BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...KEEPING PREVENTING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING MUCH FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. LIGHT WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PUT A CAP ON THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH THE 20S WITH SOME LOW 30S IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FURTHER BOLSTERING
READINGS DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT STRATUS ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN TIMING THAN THE GEM AND
GFS...BUT ALL MODELS DO TRACK THE BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEEING ANY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF...BUT EVEN HERE MID
LEVELS REMAIN PRETTY DRY. WILL LEAVE ONLY MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX WITH FAIRLY MILD MID/LOW LEVELS AND SUB FREEZING AT THE SURFACE.

THE WARMING TREND RESUMES SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING
BUILDING BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOLLOWED BY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW
TO MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW MORNING IS LOW. WILL KEEP THE MVFR CIGS
IN THE TAFS AT ALL THREE SITES...AS INDICATIONS FROM THE NAM...GFS
AND RAP ARE THAT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTEHRLY
FLOW...STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP. IF IT DOES FORM IT MAY TEND TO LINGER
INTO TOMORROW...AS FLOW WEAKENS LEAVING THE MOISTURE OVER US. THIS
TYPE OF WINTER TIME STRATUS IS TOUGH TO PREDICT...AND SOMETIMES
MODELS OVERDO IT...SO FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND
ADJUST TAFS AS NEEDED. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA TOMORROW...BEST CHANCE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. MOST OF THIS
SHOULD FALL AFTER 18Z...SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

 1146 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST
MN AND THE EASTERN SECTION OF EAST CENTRAL SD EARLY TODAY. THIS IS
BECAUSE MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THAT AREA AND WILL LIKELY
NOT EXIT ANYTIME SOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES MODERATED. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO ENCROACH INTO OUR
EASTERN ZONES KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. NORTHWEST IA AND THE SIOUX FALLS
AREA IS ALSO MARGINAL IN KEEPING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY GOING.
HOWEVER DECIDED TO LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW AS THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO NORTHWEST IA. IF THEY DO...WILL LIKELY BE ABLE
TO CANCEL THOSE AREAS EARLY ALSO BY SUNRISE. OUR WESTERN ZONES HAVE
A BIT MORE WIND DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW. OTHERWISE A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...PRIMARILY AFFECTING AREAS NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. INSTEAD OF A SMALL MEASURABLE POP...OPTED TO JUST
MENTION FLURRIES FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND SOUTHWEST MN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PAINT SOME STRATUS
POTENTIAL WITH THIS WAVE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS...
COUPLED WITH A FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE OF -12C TO -18C IN THE
STRATUS LAYER. IF THE MODELS ARE OVER ZEALOUS IN DEVELOPING THE
STRATUS...THEN EVEN FLURRIES WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR AS THE NEXT CLOUD
DECK IS UP IN THE MID LEVELS. THE RETURN FLOW WILL MODERATE OUR
HIGHS TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT STILL WAY
BELOW NORMAL. COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST...IT STILL WILL NOT FEEL VERY GOOD.

TONIGHT...MODERATED AIR WILL BE AROUND. THE OVERALL AIR MASS AT
925MB IS SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER WHEN COMPARED TO RIGHT NOW. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER EITHER IN THE
FORM OF STRATUS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...OR A MID TO UPPER CLOUD DECK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

THE TUESDAY SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA IS A LITTLE TRICKY. FIRST ON
TIMING...THE 00Z NAM FOR SOME REASON DELAYS THE ARRIVAL AND
DEPARTURES OF THIS SYSTEM QUITE A BIT AND SEEMS OUT OF LINE WITH THE
OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL NAM...GEM...AND GFS. OUR
EARLIER FORECAST FITS WITH THESE OTHER MODELS FAIRLY WELL SO WILL
REJECT THE NAM TIMING. ALSO...THIS POTENTIAL LITTLE EVENT SEEMS TO
BE DRIVEN MORE BY THE WAVE DYNAMICS THAN ANY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT
UNLIKE SOME OF OUR OTHER RECENT SYSTEMS...SO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS. SINCE THE GFS STILL PRODUCES AMPLE
LIFT...WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF AN INCH PLUS IN OUR NORTHEAST
CORNER...PART OF SOUTHWEST MN...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN THAT
AREA. SOME MINOR APPARENT COOLING AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY WILL
MANIFEST ITSELF IN ONLY A LITTLE SLOWDOWN OF SURFACE WARMING AS
THE MIXING PROCESS TAKES CARE OF THE CURRENTLY ANCHORED LOW LEVEL
ARCTIC AIR. SNOWFALL OR NOT...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH AND BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THESE
SHOULD HOLD IN TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DECREASE SLOWLY FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AS SLOW DRYING ACCOMPANIES THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT
WARM ADVECTION EPISODE. THIS WILL SET UP A PATTERN OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SOUTHWEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST DURING A DRY AND MILDER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WARMING TO
THE 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE 40S SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BEGIN TO MELT
SOME OF THE SNOW COVER.

FRIDAY WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...AS SOME HALF DECENT THERMAL PACKING IS
BRIEFLY DRIVEN BACK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA...AND WEAK SHORT
WAVE PASSES. RIDGING THEN WILL BRING THE START OF WARMING FROM THE
WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH APPEARS TO INCREASE STRONGLY FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST...AND DO SOME SERIOUS MARCH SNOWMELT. THE EC
SEEMS TOO STRONG ON THE WARMING...BUT THE GFS HAS PICKED UP SOME ON
IT...SO IF THE TREND CONTINUES AND IF THE EC IS CLOSE...WE COULD BE
TOO WEAK ON THE SUNDAY WARMUP...BUT AM NOT GETTING THE GOLF CLUBS
OUT QUITE YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW MORNING IS LOW. WILL KEEP THE MVFR CIGS
IN THE TAFS AT ALL THREE SITES...AS INDICATIONS FROM THE NAM...GFS
AND RAP ARE THAT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTEHRLY
FLOW...STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP. IF IT DOES FORM IT MAY TEND TO LINGER
INTO TOMORROW...AS FLOW WEAKENS LEAVING THE MOISTURE OVER US. THIS
TYPE OF WINTER TIME STRATUS IS TOUGH TO PREDICT...AND SOMETIMES
MODELS OVERDO IT...SO FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND
ADJUST TAFS AS NEEDED. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA TOMORROW...BEST CHANCE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. MOST OF THIS
SHOULD FALL AFTER 18Z...SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 349 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF LARGELY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE MID-STATE THIS MORNING WITH SFC LOW NOW APPALACHIANS VICINITY
AND SFC TEMPS SUB-FREEZING TO NEAR THE AL BORDER. BACK EDGE MOVING
EAST PRETTY RAPIDLY AND HAS AROUND THE PLATEAU. GFS/ECM LITTLE
SLOW WITH ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN. 06Z NAM/LATEST HRRR BLOWING HEAVY
FREEZING PCPN OFF THE PLATEAU SHORTLY SEEMINGLY MORE REASONABLE
GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATION DATA.

WARM NOSE CURRENTLY STILL AROUND H9-H7 EXPECTED SCOUR OUT OF ALL
EXCEPT PLATEAU BY 12Z...THEN THERE AROUND 15Z. EXPECT BREAK IN
PCPN TO CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME EARLY THIS MORNING BUT REFIRE
11Z-18Z OR SO AS SNOW WHILE UL LOW/TROUGH PASSES. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL MOST LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND IT
SEEMS THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION SOUTH. THERE
HAS BEEN GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE ACCUMULATION NORTH/WEST OF NASHVILLE
AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL THAT MAY
AGGRAVATE SITUATION. AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL LARGELY LOOKS AT OR BELOW
1 INCH SOUTH. THUS WITH CURRENT AND FCST TRENDS...HAVE ADJUSTED
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

PCPN ENDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL LEAVE THE AREA IN A
DRY SPELL UNTIL AN UPPER LOW AND WEAK FRONT BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE AREA ON THU. WEAK RIDGING ON FRI WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/UPPER TROUGH LATER SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS
COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      28  18  42  27 / 100  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    25  11  37  19 / 100  10  10  10
CROSSVILLE     28  16  46  28 / 100  10  10  10
COLUMBIA       31  18  44  29 /  90  10  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   31  21  46  29 /  60  10  10  10
WAVERLY        26  11  40  20 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TNZ010-
011-031>034-064>066.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ058-
060-061-063-075-077-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ005>009-023>030-
056-057-059-062.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ078>080.

&&

$$





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

 1038 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...AND TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE CIGS MAY IMPROVE A FEW HOURS EARLIER AS WELL.
THUS...MADE THOSE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TERMINALS. CIGS ALREADY AT
MVFR AT KVCT AND KLRD...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO...WITH IFR CIGS
IMPROVING TO MVFR BEFORE 12Z. EXPECTING VFR CIGS AT KVCT AND KLRD
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE (AOA 13Z)...WITH VFR CIGS AT KALI AND KCRP
ABOUT 16Z. SHOULD HAVE VFR CIGS REST OF TERMINAL FORECAST. GOING A
BIT LOWER ON WINDS BUT STILL GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING ALL
TERMINAL (AND MAINLY NORTH)...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS. FINALLY...PUT A TEMPO IN FOR -RA AT KALI
AND KCRP BASED ON RADAR BUT EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO WANE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA
THIS EVENING RESULTING IN STRONG GUSTY N WINDS AND FALLING TEMPS.
BASED ON THE LATEST TEMP TRENDS AND HOW FAST THEY ARE FALLING AND
DUE TO SEVERAL MODELS PROGING FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND LOWERED MN TEMPS BY A
FEW DEGREES RESULTING IN A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE NRN CWA AND
MORE WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW 25 DEGREES. THEREFORE HAVE
EXPANDED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE CWA
INCLUDING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES. ALSO
ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THE BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZING TEMPS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA A LITTLE
FASTER BY A COUPLE OF HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTCIPATED. HAVE UPDATED FCST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER FROPA AND WENT EARLIER WITH THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS. WINDS BEHIND THE FROPA HAVE BEEN
INITIALLY GUSTING BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS THEN DECREASING TO
28-35KTS...THEREFORE AM NOT ANTCIPATING WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REMAINS IN EFFECT. ISOLD SHRA`S HAVE ALSO BEEN DVLPG
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
FROM NW TO SE. SOME MODELS PROG MN TEMPS OF 31 DEGREES AROUND VCT
BUT THINK CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP MN TEMPS JUST ABV
FREEZING BUT A BRIEF DIP TO 32 DEGREES AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NRN CWA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ONLY MADE
TWEAKS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WSHFT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER FROPA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH (WHICH IS VERY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST)...CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR AT KCRP...KVCT AND KALI BUT BE
MVFR AT KLRD. CIGS WILL FALL RAPIDLY AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS...BUT
MAY TAKE A BIT OF TIME AT KLRD (BASED ON SATELLITE AND GUIDANCE).
FRONT ALREADY THROUGH KVCT AND SHOULD BE THROUGH REMAINDER OF
TERMINALS BY 02Z (AND PROBABLY EARLIER). SOME SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARY
EXPECTED...BUT THUNDER UNLIKELY BASED ON CAP WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD THUNDER IN CHECK. RATHER WINDY TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOA
20 KNOTS AND GUSTS AOA 30 KNOTS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AT KLRD.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR...THEN VFR (BUT STILL CIGS) DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS AND GUSTS FINALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. FRONT
SHOULD ENTER THE AREA IN AN HOUR OR TWO AND MOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS FAR OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...WITH NO THUNDER
REPORTED YET. THINK LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ALONG OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TUMBLE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY BE ABOUT 40 TO 45 DEGREES COOLER MONDAY MORNING
COMPARED TO RIGHT NOW. IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER TEMPS...STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE EXISTS BETWEEN MAV/MET WIND SPEEDS WITH
THE MAV SUGGESTING WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. TEMPERED WIND SPEEDS
A BIT BUT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NONETHELESS WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY COULD BECOME NECESSARY IF
SPEEDS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AN ISSUE THOUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION
WHERE WC VALUES WILL FALL BETWEEN 20 AND 25 AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SOMETHING ALSO
WORTH MONITORING WILL BE THE PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE HRRR HAS DEVELOPED PRECIP OVER MUCH OF
SOUTH TEXAS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT HAVE KEPT
SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
40S ON MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RAMP BACK UP ON MONDAY NIGHT AS
850MB FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN BECOMES
ESTABLISHED.

MARINE...VERY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BETWEEN 35 AND 40
KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING OVER THE
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD BETWEEN 6 AND 8
FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 8 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING
ON MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...S/W TROUGH AXIS WILL KICK EAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN ZONES AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AN INCREASE IN NVA
SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCES RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AS
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH SKIRTS EAST ACROSS TX. THIS SYSTEM IS PROG TO BE
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE STARVED THAN MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY SYSTEM...AND THUS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NW FLOW FROM SFC TO UPPER LEVELS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SUNNIER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. BRIEF
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY TRANSITIONS TO MERIDIONAL BY THE WEEKEND
WITH BOTH ECMWF/GFS WANTING TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WANTING TO CUT OFF A STRONG H5 LOW ACROSS
NW MEX AND SHIFT IT EAST TOWARDS THE BIG BEND REGION. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR LATTER PERIODS DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PROGRESSES CLOSER. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR TUES WITH ONLY TEMPERED
MODIFICATION ON WEDNESDAY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP EXPECTED THURS
AND FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY
IMPACTS THE AREA LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    35  47  38  44  44  /  30  20  50  50  20
VICTORIA          33  47  36  42  41  /  30  10  50  50  20
LAREDO            38  46  39  52  47  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             35  46  38  45  43  /  20  10  40  40  20
ROCKPORT          33  48  39  45  45  /  30  20  50  50  20
COTULLA           36  49  37  48  44  /  10  10  30  10  10
KINGSVILLE        35  45  38  46  44  /  30  20  50  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       37  46  41  45  45  /  30  20  50  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPOKANE WA

 251 PM PST Mon Mar 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A much warmer and wetter weather pattern will arrive this week
with several several moist frontal systems expected. Look for
widespread rain Wednesday and Thursday, and again Saturday night
into Sunday. The combination of rain and melting snow will
heighten the potential for minor flooding of farm land and urban
areas that have problems with drainage. By the weekend, several
rivers in the Idaho Panhandle and southeast Washington may
experience significant rises.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TO BRING RAIN...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING STARTING WEDNESDAY...

Tonight: As the frontal band pushes through north Idaho and into
Montana, the threat for wintry precipitation will be decreasing.
Expect upslope mountain snow showers over the Idaho panhandle, but
additional snow accumulations should be minor. Meanwhile snow
showers will continue near the Cascade crest, but again these slop-
over snow showers are not expected to be significant under this
unstable westerly flow. Temperatures will creep above freezing
south of a line from Moses Lake to Spokane and Coeur d`Alene early
this evening, but then cool slightly overnight back to freezing.
This may cause some icy problems with the overnight cool early
Tuesday morning. Under this warmer regime and light winds during
the overnight hours, expect area of fog and low stratus especially in
many of the northern valleys and upper Columbia Basin tonight.
/rfox.

Tuesday through Thursday: Satellite imagery shows a moist
subtropical moisture plume originating off the Hawaiian Islands and
pointed toward the western U.S. This moisture plume is expected to
be directed toward the region as a couple of shortwave disturbances
push across the region. The first wave is expected to hit Wednesday
morning into Wednesday afternoon. This wave will essentially push
across as a warm front with moist isentropic lift across much of
the region. The second and stronger disturbance will push in
quickly on the heals of the first. This shortwave will be
accompanied by some good dynamics aloft with strong isentropic
ascent in the warm sector before a cold front passes through
around the morning hours on Thursday. Southerly winds will
increase during the overnight hours on Wednesday with windy
conditions possible by Thursday morning into the afternoon behind
the cold front.

* Precipitation and Snow Levels: Most areas are expected to see
  valley rain and mountain snow with these two weather systems.
  The one caveat will be in the upper reaches of the Methow Valley
  over into the Okanogan Highlands. Snow levels may remain low
  enough that locations such as Mazama, Winthrop and Republic will
  start out as snow Wednesday morning before transitioning over to
  rain through Wednesday afternoon. Snow accumulations in these
  valleys are expected to be light in the range of 1 to 3 inches.
  Precip amounts with the two systems will be moderate to heavy in
  places. The east slopes of the Cascades are expected to see
  around a half an inch to an inch with closer to 1.5 to 2 inches
  along the crest. The Okanogan Highlands over to the Northern
  Panhandle and into the Central Panhandle Mtns are expected to
  see precip totals of between a half an inch to 1 inch total;
  local accumulations of over an inch of precip will be possible
  over a 36 hour period. Rainfall accumulations of around a half
  an inch will be possible across the eastern portions of the
  Upper Columbia Basin, into the Spokane Coeur d`Alene area and
  down onto the Palouse. Heavy mountain snowfall will be possible
  in the mountains above 4500 feet in the northern mtns and 5500
  feet in the Central Panhandle Mtns.

* Temperatures: Milder air under southwesterly flow is expected
  during this period. Expect temps warming into the 40s and 50s by
  Thursday. Wednesday night`s low temps will also be quite mild
  with dew point temps in the mid to upper 30s for much of the
  region. Dew point temps above freezing will add to proficiency of
  melting snow at low and mid elevations.

* Flood Potential: The combination of warming temps and moderate
  to heavy rain will result in rises to area rivers and small
  streams. Flood is not expected on main stem rivers at this time.
  The greatest threat will be for flooding along small stream and
  creeks, urban area flooding and mud slides/debris flows. Valley
  snowfall of 4 to 8 inches in places and frozen soils will
  heighten the potential for flooding. A Flood Watch will be
  issued for portions of the Upper Columbia Basin, the Spokane
  Area, the northern mountain areas of eastern WA and in the ID
  Panhandle for Tuesday night through Friday afternoon.

* Winds: Breezy conditions are expected on Thursday with winds up
  to 20 to 25 mph and gusts as high as 35 mph across the basin. /SVH

Thursday Night through Saturday: There is good model agreement
that rain and mountain snow will be winding down Thursday night
into early Friday morning. Modest cool advection Thursday night
behind the cold front will likely push snow levels down into the
3000-4000 ft range across the Inland Northwest. At this time, we
are not looking for snow accumulations in the valleys. The good
news with the falling snow levels will be a bit of a decrease in
the rate of snow melt in the mid elevations Thursday night into
Friday. Travel over the mountain passes, especially above 4000
feet may become slushy and treacherous Thursday night into Friday
morning.

A shortwave ridge Friday and Friday night should bring a break in
the active weather pattern. Orographic rain and mountain snow
showers over the Idaho Panhandle will be mostly a morning event on
Friday if the ECMWF, GFS and Canadian models hold true.

The next mild, breezy, and wet frontal system should arrive
Saturday night into Sunday. There is very good model agreement
leading higher than average forecast confidence for the weekend
forecast. /GKoch

Sunday and Monday: A strong push of moisture will continue to pass
through the region. This will keep chances for precip across the
Inland Northwest high. Warm southerly flow will continue to
impact the region. The warmer temperatures will push the snow
levels to the higher elevations of the mountains and most places
can expect to see rain showers. By late Sunday into early Monday,
a weak ridge will creep into the region and start a drying trend
and decreasing precipitation chances in the region. Temperatures
are expected to remain around the season normals. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Mixed precipitation will effect KEAT, KMWH, KGEG and KCOE
through 21z as a warm front lifts northward. Based on recent ACCRS
data, the warm layer is deepening and should help to scrub out the
boundary layer cold layer this afternoon at these sites. KPUW and
KLWS will see occasional rain. HRRR data shows not much
precipitation after this band pulls through after 00z, with just
valley rain/mountain snow. Local MVFR cigs are possible with area of
stratus and fog. rfox.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        32  43  34  44  39  48 /  30  40  40 100 100  80
Coeur d`Alene  32  41  34  43  37  46 /  40  50  50 100 100  80
Pullman        36  43  35  45  40  49 /  40  50  50  90 100  80
Lewiston       38  46  38  50  42  53 /  50  40  40  60  90  70
Colville       31  43  34  44  35  50 /  40  40  50 100 100  80
Sandpoint      31  40  33  41  36  46 /  70  80  70 100 100 100
Kellogg        33  38  33  42  37  44 / 100 100  70 100 100 100
Moses Lake     31  44  33  52  43  57 /  20  10  20  80  90  30
Wenatchee      30  41  33  49  39  52 /  20  10  20  80 100  30
Omak           29  41  29  45  35  50 /  20  20  10 100  90  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Friday morning for
     Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho
     Palouse-Northern Panhandle.

     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Northern
     Panhandle.

WA...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Friday morning for
     Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPOKANE WA

 211 PM PST Mon Mar 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A very moist series of storms will move through the Pacific
Northwest through Thursday. Each storm will be warmer than the
last with snow turning to rain at most locations except the higher
mountains between Today and Thursday. A brief break period at the
end of the week will be followed by more wet weather this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Band of mixed precipitation has moved into north Idaho and the
Palouse...which brings an end to the freezing rain to the Spokane
area and the upper Columbia Basin and northeast Washington
mountains. Still have a winter highlight for Idaho zone 1, but
that will end as the passage of the front late this afternoon.
Meanwhile, snow shower will continue near the crest, but
accumulations are expected to dwindle on the lower slopes so took
down the highlight for the east slopes of the Cascades. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Mixed precipitation will effect KEAT, KMWH, KGEG and KCOE
through 21z as a warm front lifts northward. Based on recent ACCRS
data, the warm layer is deepening and should help to scrub out the
boundary layer cold layer this afternoon at these sites. KPUW and
KLWS will see occasional rain. HRRR data shows not much
precipitation after this band pulls through after 00z, with just
valley rain/mountain snow. Local MVFR cigs are possible with area of
stratus and fog. rfox.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  32  43  34  44  39 /  50  30  40  40 100 100
Coeur d`Alene  35  32  41  34  43  37 /  60  40  50  50 100 100
Pullman        41  36  43  35  45  40 /  50  40  50  50  90 100
Lewiston       44  38  46  38  50  42 /  50  50  40  40  60  90
Colville       32  31  43  34  44  35 /  30  40  40  50 100 100
Sandpoint      31  31  40  33  41  36 /  70  70  80  70 100 100
Kellogg        36  33  38  33  42  37 /  90 100 100  70 100 100
Moses Lake     34  31  44  33  52  43 /  20  20  10  20  80  90
Wenatchee      31  30  41  33  49  39 /  30  20  10  20  80 100
Omak           32  29  41  29  45  35 /  20  20  20  10 100  90

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Friday morning for
     Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho
     Palouse-Northern Panhandle.

     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Northern
     Panhandle.

WA...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Friday morning for
     Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPOKANE WA

 1208 PM PST Mon Mar 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A very moist series of storms will move through the Pacific
Northwest through Thursday. Each storm will be warmer than the
last with snow turning to rain at most locations except the higher
mountains between Today and Thursday. A brief break period at the
end of the week will be followed by more wet weather this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Was able to take down a few highlights, based on both radar trends
and temperatures. The main brunt of the precipitation has exited
the Wenatchee area and Waterville Plateau where the threat for
mixed precipitation is low anyway due to the cold air damning. The
Moses Lake area is still below freezing, but main band has shifted
to the east and only expect isolated to scattered showers.
Meanwhile, the Coeur d`Alene area and the Central panhandle have
warmed considerable with snow levels up to Lookout Pass and threat
for freezing rain very low. So will extend the advisory until 2 pm for
the Upper Columbia Basin and Spokane area where temperatures are
near freezing and precipitation heavy to moderate. Also extended
the winter storm warning for the Northeast Washington mountains
and north Idaho until 4 pm, as will the east slopes of the
Cascades. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Mixed precipitation will effect KEAT, KMWH, KGEG and KCOE
through 21z as a warm front lifts northward. Based on recent ACCRS
data, the warm layer is deepening and should help to scrub out the
boundary layer cold layer this afternoon at these sites. KPUW and
KLWS will see occasional rain. HRRR data shows not much
precipitation after this band pulls through after 00z, with just
valley rain/mountain snow. Local MVFR cigs are possible with area of
stratus and fog. rfox.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  33  44  34  45  41 / 100  50  40  40 100 100
Coeur d`Alene  35  32  43  33  44  39 / 100  50  50  50 100 100
Pullman        41  36  46  36  49  42 /  70  50  50  50  90 100
Lewiston       44  38  52  40  54  44 /  70  50  40  40  60  90
Colville       32  31  45  31  45  36 / 100  50  40  50 100 100
Sandpoint      31  31  41  32  42  37 / 100  80  80  70 100 100
Kellogg        36  33  40  34  43  39 / 100  80 100  70 100 100
Moses Lake     34  32  52  35  52  44 /  50  20  10  20  80  90
Wenatchee      31  31  47  35  49  40 /  50  20  10  20  80 100
Omak           32  30  46  31  46  37 /  60  30  20  10 100  90

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Northern
     Panhandle.

WA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for East
     Slopes Northern Cascades-Northeast Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM PST this afternoon for
     Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPOKANE WA

 940 AM PST Mon Mar 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A very moist series of storms will move through the Pacific
Northwest through Thursday. Each storm will be warmer than the
last with snow turning to rain at most locations except the higher
mountains between Today and Thursday. A brief break period at the
end of the week will be followed by more wet weather this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Next band of precipitation quickly pushing across eastern
Washington. Main concern is the low level temp profile. A warm
front spans from near KALW, northeast toward Escure, Cheney, and
Harrison with a bubble of above freezing air to the south. Along
and northwest of this boundary, expect a wintry mix. Latest KMWH
obs shows freezing rain and this should reach impact I-90 to the
Spokane area through 10 am. The warm air will work its way to the
ground through midday with a transistion to rain expected across
the lower Basin and Spokane area. Although, the HRRR shows the
main brunt of the precipitation leaving the Basin after 21z, and
the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area after 23z. rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Mixed precipitation will effect KEAT, KMWH, KGEG and KCOE
through 21z as a warm front lifts northward. Based on recent ACCRS
data, the warm layer is deepening and should help to scrub out the
boundary layer cold layer this afternoon at these sites. KPUW and
KLWS will see occasional rain. HRRR data shows not much
precipitation after this band pulls through after 00z, with just
valley rain/mountain snow. Local MVFR cigs are possible with area of
stratus and fog. rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  33  44  34  45  41 /  90  60  50  30 100 100
Coeur d`Alene  35  32  43  33  44  39 /  90  70  60  50 100 100
Pullman        42  36  46  36  49  42 /  80  70  70  50  80  90
Lewiston       44  39  52  40  54  44 /  80  60  60  40  60  90
Colville       34  31  45  31  45  36 /  90  70  50  30 100 100
Sandpoint      31  31  41  32  42  37 / 100  70  70  60 100 100
Kellogg        36  33  40  34  43  39 / 100  90 100  70 100 100
Moses Lake     37  34  52  35  52  44 /  60  30  20  20  80  90
Wenatchee      34  33  47  35  49  40 /  60  30  20  10  80  90
Omak           33  30  46  31  46  37 /  70  30  20  10 100 100

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until Noon PST today for Coeur d`Alene
     Area.

     Winter Storm Warning until Noon PST today for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until Noon PST today for Moses Lake Area-
     Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-
     Wenatchee Area.

     Winter Storm Warning until Noon PST today for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for East
     Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPOKANE WA

 854 AM PST Mon Mar 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A very moist series of storms will move through the Pacific
Northwest through Thursday. Each storm will be warmer than the
last with snow turning to rain at most locations except the higher
mountains between Today and Thursday. A brief break period at the
end of the week will be followed by more wet weather this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Next band of precipitation quickly pushing across eastern
Washington. Main concern is the low level temp profile. A warm
front spans from near KALW, northeast toward Escure, Cheney, and
Harrison with a bubble of above freezing air to the south. Along
and northwest of this boundary, expect a wintry mix. Latest KMWH
obs shows freezing rain and this should reach impact I-90 to the
Spokane area through 10 am. The warm air will work its way to the
ground through midday with a transistion to rain expected across
the lower Basin and Spokane area. Although, the HRRR shows the
main brunt of the precipitation leaving the Basin after 21z, and
the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area after 23z. rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A warm front laying from KELN to KMLP at 12Z will move
north today in response to a disturbance moving up from Oregon.
This warm front passage will bring a mix of precipitation with
MVFR and IFR ceilings common at most TAF sites today. A short
period of FZRA is likely at the KGEG area TAF sites probably
between 17Z and 20Z before surface temperatures rise above
freezing. The FZRA threat will be longer duration at KMWH and KEAT
where cold near surface air is deeper...but precipitation will be
spottier and intermittent with a partial rain shadow provided by
the Cascades. KPUW and KLWS are already above freezing this
morning and will remain so through the TAF period for mainly RA
with MVFR or low VFR ceilings. The storm system will move out of
the region tonight...but a warmer low level air mass and melting
snow will promote areas of fog and stratus after 06Z tonight. /MJF




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        36  33  44  34  45  41 /  90  60  50  30 100 100
Coeur d`Alene  35  32  43  33  44  39 /  90  70  60  50 100 100
Pullman        42  36  46  36  49  42 /  80  70  70  50  80  90
Lewiston       44  39  52  40  54  44 /  80  60  60  40  60  90
Colville       34  31  45  31  45  36 /  90  70  50  30 100 100
Sandpoint      31  31  41  32  42  37 / 100  70  70  60 100 100
Kellogg        36  33  40  34  43  39 / 100  90 100  70 100 100
Moses Lake     37  34  52  35  52  44 /  60  30  20  20  80  90
Wenatchee      34  33  47  35  49  40 /  60  30  20  10  80  90
Omak           33  30  46  31  46  37 /  70  30  20  10 100 100

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until Noon PST today for Coeur d`Alene
     Area.

     Winter Storm Warning until Noon PST today for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until Noon PST today for Moses Lake Area-
     Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-
     Wenatchee Area.

     Winter Storm Warning until Noon PST today for Northeast
     Mountains.

     Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for East
     Slopes Northern Cascades.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 926 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

SNOW BAND CONTINUES ACROSS THE ADVISORY ARE WITH THE LATEST HOURLY
TREND OF A SLIGHT SOUTHWEST SHIFT OF 1/2-1 COUNTY. CURRENT AMOUNTS
ARE IN THE 1 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE WITH SERN MN HAVING THE 2-2.5 INCH
AMOUNTS.

HAVE BEEN TORN AS AMOUNTS ARE GOING TO BE RIGHT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
OVER THE 6 INCH MARK IN AREAS ALONG THE BAND. LATEST RAP
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS HANDLING THE BAND QUITE WELL...MOVES A
FRONTOGENESIS MAX IN THE 600-700MB LAYER FROM SOUTHCENTRAL MN
WHERE MANY AREAS OF 30 PLUS DBZ ARE SEEN ON RADAR...DOWN THE BAND
AND INTO SERN MN BY ABOUT 06Z/12AM...THEN INTO SWRN WI BY
09Z/3AM. THE RAP ALSO DROPS OVER 0.50 INCHES OF LIQUID IN THE
BAND. CURRENT RATES ARE GOING TO KEEP UP AND INTENSIFY THROUGH
06-07Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. SO...LIKELY TO SEE SOME 5.5 TO 6.5
INCH AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS OF SERN MN INTO EXTREME NERN IA AND
INTO SWRN WI.

HAVE UPDATED THE SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS AND POSTED THOSE WITH AN AXIS
OF 5.5 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MAIN BAND. WITH LITTLE WIND AND MAINLY
A LATER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATION PERIOD...ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS BEYOND THE SNOW ARE MINIMAL. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO ALLOW
FOR A HIGH END WEATHER ADVISORY...MORE IN LINE WITH IMPACTS TO THE
PUBLIC. CERTAINLY...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS...BUT LIFE
THREATENING WARNING IMPACTS DONT SEEM TO BE AT HAND. NO CHANGES TO
HEADLINES WILL BE MADE. COORDINATED THIS WITH NWS MKX/MPX WHO ARE
ALSO AFFECTED BY THE BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

JUST A FEW WORDS ON THE INCOMING SNOW. STARTING TO SEE JUST IN THE
LAST MINUTES SOME NICE FILLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN 30 PLUS
DBZ BAND ACROSS SRN MN. THERE IS A NICE LAYER /200-300 MB/ OF
SLANTWISE AND WEAK UPRIGHT INSTABILITY /UPRIGHT IN IA MAINLY/
ABOVE THE FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS GOOD
FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS. LATEST TRENDS IN THE HRRR RUNS ARE
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE NORTHERN 3 INCH SNOW LINE...BUT
VERY CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY AREA.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE FROM A FORECAST STANDPOINT IS IF THE HIGHEST
ECHO BAND WILL BE SLIGHTLY TRANSITORY OR LOCK IN THE BROADER
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. IF IT LOCKS...WE WILL LIKELY SEE 6 INCH
AMOUNTS. OVERALL IT SEEMS A BROADER BAND /4-5 COUNTIES N-S...SIMILAR
TO ADVISORY/ WITH PULSING INTO THE 30 PLUS DBZ RANGE WITHIN THAT
WOULD OCCUR IN THE FRONTOGENESIS AREA. CURRENT RADAR HAS A VERY
NARROW 1-2 COUNTY WIDE BAND...WITH LITTLE SNOW NORTH AND SOUTH OF
IT...SO LOOKING FOR BROADENING FOR CURRENT FORECAST VERIFY.

WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED ON EVOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

CURRENTLY AS OF 21Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS FLOW...THE MOST NOTABLE
FEATURE IS A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS / WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS SUPPORTED SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES HAVE DROPPED TO 3/4 MILE WITH EVEN ONE 1/4 MILE OBSERVED AT
LINTON NORTH DAKOTA. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SNOW...STUCK
BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SEEN ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING.
THESE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INVERSION TRAPPING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR HAS ONLY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TEENS
TO LOW 20S. STILL...THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN IT HAS BEEN AS OF
LATE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS AROUND THE REGION SHOWED AMOUNTS
OF 0.1" OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AROUND 0.25" OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...0.3-0.4" WHERE THE SNOW WAS FALLING AND 0.5" IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS EVENING...CAUSING SNOW
TO SPREAD IN AND DEVELOP. SIMULTANEOUSLY...MODELS SUGGEST THE HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NEBRASKA WILL GET ADVECTED NORTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR MORE QPF PRODUCTION FROM THE FORCING.
ANOTHER FEATURE AIDING IN MORE QPF IS SOME NEGATIVE EPV PROGGED ON
TOP OF THE F-GEN CIRCULATION...LEADING TO BANDING.

LOCATION...THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED THROUGH THE EVENING. HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED THE BULK OF
THE SNOW TRAVERSING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF
I-94. ON THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE 04.12Z GFS WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF THE
SNOW SOUTHWEST OF LA CROSSE. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW WHICH IS
GENERALLY THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CONCURS WITH EXTRAPOLATION OF
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS.

TIMING...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA BETWEEN 22-03Z WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...THEN EXIT NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 08-12Z WEDNESDAY.

AMOUNTS...04.12Z NAM/GFS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR UPWARD TREND IN QPF
AND THIS FORECAST HAS DONE THE SAME. DID NOT GO FULLY TOWARDS THEIR
AMOUNTS SEEING LIGHTER QPF FROM THE RAP...BUT AN UPWARD TREND IS
NEEDED. SREF QPF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A 0.25 INCH IS LIKELY...BUT
THERE ARE EVEN A FEW MEMBERS SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF A 0.5 INCH.
SHOULD THESE PAN OUT WE WOULD END UP WITH WARNING CRITERIA. RIGHT
NOW...WITH COBB DATA SUGGESTING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS BETWEEN 13-16
TO 1...THINKING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 3-5 INCHES SOUTH AND WEST
OF LA CROSSE. A FEW 6 INCH AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
NEGATIVE EPV. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASE QUICKLY HEADING TO THE NORTHEAST
FROM WINONA TO LA CROSSE NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER
AIR BEING SUCKED INTO THE F-GEN CIRCULATION. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST
UNCERTAIN ALONG AN AXIS FROM WINONA TO LA CROSSE WHERE ANYWHERE FROM
1 TO 5 INCHES SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

AFTER THE SNOW EXITS...MUCH OF WEDNESDAY LOOKS QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER
WHICH WITH SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SOME WEAK OMEGA RESULTING FROM
DIURNAL HEATING...HAVE ADDED SOME FLURRIES. BULK OF THE FLURRY
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

04.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET ALL DEPICT A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT DROP THROUGH ONTARIO
AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS US BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO
PUT SOME SPEED BUMPS IN THE MODERATION.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS ONTARIO ON FRIDAY HELPS
PROPEL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY BLOWING OF THE FRESH SNOW WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE TO NEAR 30 ON THURSDAY. INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
SHOULD LIMIT SOME TEMPERATURE FALL THURSDAY EVENING...WITH RISING
TEMPS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FOLLOWING A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE...READINGS SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE
TEMPERATURE ISSUES...FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE PRECIPITATION. MUCH OF THE DEEPER SYNOPTIC FORCING
IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...BUT GIVEN THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND
LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO BE AROUND...A NEED EXISTS FOR SOME 20-30
PERCENT CHANCES. GIVEN A WARM LAYER PRESENT ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHAT
PRECIP DOES OCCUR COULD EITHER BE LIQUID...SLEET OR SNOW WITH THE
SNOW PROBABILITY HIGHEST TOWARDS TAYLOR COUNTY WITH DEEPER COLD AIR.
SINCE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIGHT...KEPT THE LIQUID FORM AS
FREEZING DRIZZLE / DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THERE
TOO COULD BE ISSUES WITH LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...FAVORING A
DRIZZLE ROUTE.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE A BIT TRICKY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
THE 04.12Z GFS PERSISTS ON DROPPING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT...SENDING A SURGE OF COOLER AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH TAKES UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT TO GET OUT OF HERE. THE
ECMWF...GEM AND UKMET ON THE OTHER HAND CONTINUE TO SAY THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STAYS MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND TRACKS QUICKER TO THE
EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH WARMER SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN EACH
MODEL GROUP HAS STUCK TO THEIR GUNS...HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW A
MODEL CONSENSUS AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
GROUP FLINCHES...THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE RAPIDLY TRENDED COLDER
OR WARMER.

MONDAY REMAINS MOST CONFIDENT TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 6-8C PER ECMWF. PRESENTLY
HAVE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT THESE MAY NEED
TO BE INCREASED MORE...DEPENDING ON HOW SUNDAY PLAYS OUT.

A COOL DOWN THEN ENSUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. INCLUDED SOME 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCES FOR THIS TROUGH. LIMITED MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN
THE LOW CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THIS ENVIRONMENT
COULD LEAD TO PREVAILING LIFR SHOULD THE SNOW BAND STAY STATIONARY
OVER THE TAF SITES. PROBABILITIES FOR THIS OCCURRING ARE ON THE
INCREASING TREND. TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN USED AS THE BANDS OF SNOW
EVOLVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES...MORE OF A PERIODIC LIFR.
HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR FOR UPGRADE TO PREVAILING LIFR.

ALSO...BASED ON A BIT FURTHER NORTH TREND TO RADAR ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...HAVE BROUGHT LOWER CONDITIONS INTO KLSE TAF OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPO LESS THAN 1SM IN SNOW.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ041-
     053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ086>088-
     094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 737 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH FRESH SNOW PLAYING HAVOC
WITH TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS FLUCTUATING ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO AS SEEN AT GREEN BAY. MID CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND INCREASING GRADIENT EXPECTED TO LESSEN TREND. TRIED TO
SHOW IN TEMP GRIDS WITH UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHTS SNOWS EXITING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  LAST LITTLE AREA OF FLURRIES IS MOVING INTO
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN OFF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT
CLOUDS STRETCH BACK ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.  MEANWHILE...NORTHERN WISCONSIN TEMPORARILY CLEARED OUT
THIS MORNING THOUGH ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH STRATUS
PUSHING IN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MID CLOUDS FLOWING IN AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM...WITH FORCING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND MID-LEVEL FGEN...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SNOW OVER SE NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  THE SNOW IS FOLLOWING THE
MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE WHETHER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SNOW PASSES OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND THE TEMPERATURES NEXT.

TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE THERMAL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POSITIONED FROM FAR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE BULLISH
IN PRODUCING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WITHIN THE BAND OF SNOW...BUT
GENERALLY JUST BRUSH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
DIGGING SOUTH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL CAUSE A HUDSON BAY HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTH...AND ADVECT VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR...HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY WITH LAKE
ICE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN. THIS DRY AIR ALSO SUPPORTS KEEPING THE
BAND OF SNOW SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO WILL JUST KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER WOOD AND WAUSHARA COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES TO OCCUR LATE IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT FROM NE TO SW WITH THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR. WITH
WINDS EXPECTING TO DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
OVER N-C AND FAR NE WISCONSIN. STILL THINK TEMPS IN E-C WISCONSIN
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME TANKING DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE NE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...THE DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES.  THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL TEMPS COOL OFF A COUPLE DEGREES COMPARED TO
TODAY...SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS WITH A FEW
LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

THE AREA WILL FINALLY COME OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE WITH TEMPS
APPROACHING NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...AND LIKELY AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY...THEN A RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
EXPECTED (BUT NOT AS COLD AS START OF MARCH). THERE WILL BE A FEW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SHOTS OF WAA...FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES...A MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE IDENTIFYING THE
"WARMEST" DAYS AND BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR A DRY BUT COLD NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. COMBINATION OF
DRY AIR...VEERING WINDS...SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...AND ICE
COVER ON LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL...SO
ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES...BUT PREFER TO
KEEP ANY FLURRY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN
DEVELOP WILL END AS WINDS TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

WAA BEGINS TO RAMP UP ON THURSDAY...MAINLY ALOFT...AS 850MB TEMPS
ATTEMPT TO FINALLY REACH THE 0C MARK. INCREASING MOISTURE IS ALSO
EXPECTED...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY NOW LOOKS DRY FOR THE AREA...AS MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL ALSO BACK OFF ON
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI...BUT KEEP
LIKELY POPS GOING OVER THE NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACH.

BEST MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING STAY ACROSS THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP FOR
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS
ACROSS THE AREA...FEEL AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO
COVER ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR...PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS ABOVE 0C AIR
BRIEFLY PUSHES OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLEET AND SNOW AS THE MAIN PRECIP TYPES TO COVER THE MIXED
PRECIP CHANCE. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS. PREFER TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT AND ALLOW THE MODELS TO
SHOW A STRONGER SIGNAL. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH LOWER TOTALS AS YOU MOVE
SOUTH. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN LOOK FOR CAA TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS DO SHOW A
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT ALL BUT THE GFS KEEP THE AREA DRY AND WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE DRY SOLUTION AND NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP CHANCES. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...THEN MODELS VARY GREATLY
FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF/GEM WOULD FAVOR HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR
40...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS TEMPS IN THE TEENS. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK
TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME RAIN MIX IN WITH THE SNOW...BUT
THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS TO CHANGE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WHILE
DRY ARCTIC AIR/HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM NE TO SW OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WILL EXIST TONIGHT ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THEN
EAST BY LATE WED AFTN...BUT THINKING THE VERY DRY AIR AND ICE OVER THE
LAKE MAKES THE CHANCE VERY SMALL. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TE
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......TE








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 558 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

JUST A FEW WORDS ON THE INCOMING SNOW. STARTING TO SEE JUST IN THE
LAST MINUTES SOME NICE FILLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN 30 PLUS
DBZ BAND ACROSS SRN MN. THERE IS A NICE LAYER /200-300 MB/ OF
SLANTWISE AND WEAK UPRIGHT INSTABILITY /UPRIGHT IN IA MAINLY/
ABOVE THE FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS GOOD
FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS. LATEST TRENDS IN THE HRRR RUNS ARE
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE NORTHERN 3 INCH SNOW LINE...BUT
VERY CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY AREA.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE FROM A FORECAST STANDPOINT IS IF THE HIGHEST
ECHO BAND WILL BE SLIGHTLY TRANSITORY OR LOCK IN THE BROADER
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. IF IT LOCKS...WE WILL LIKELY SEE 6 INCH
AMOUNTS. OVERALL IT SEEMS A BROADER BAND /4-5 COUNTIES N-S...SIMILAR
TO ADVISORY/ WITH PULSING INTO THE 30 PLUS DBZ RANGE WITHIN THAT
WOULD OCCUR IN THE FRONTOGENESIS AREA. CURRENT RADAR HAS A VERY
NARROW 1-2 COUNTY WIDE BAND...WITH LITTLE SNOW NORTH AND SOUTH OF
IT...SO LOOKING FOR BROADENING FOR CURRENT FORECAST VERIFY.

WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED ON EVOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

CURRENTLY AS OF 21Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS FLOW...THE MOST NOTABLE
FEATURE IS A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS / WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS SUPPORTED SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES HAVE DROPPED TO 3/4 MILE WITH EVEN ONE 1/4 MILE OBSERVED AT
LINTON NORTH DAKOTA. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SNOW...STUCK
BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SEEN ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING.
THESE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INVERSION TRAPPING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR HAS ONLY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TEENS
TO LOW 20S. STILL...THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN IT HAS BEEN AS OF
LATE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS AROUND THE REGION SHOWED AMOUNTS
OF 0.1" OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AROUND 0.25" OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...0.3-0.4" WHERE THE SNOW WAS FALLING AND 0.5" IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS EVENING...CAUSING SNOW
TO SPREAD IN AND DEVELOP. SIMULTANEOUSLY...MODELS SUGGEST THE HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NEBRASKA WILL GET ADVECTED NORTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR MORE QPF PRODUCTION FROM THE FORCING.
ANOTHER FEATURE AIDING IN MORE QPF IS SOME NEGATIVE EPV PROGGED ON
TOP OF THE F-GEN CIRCULATION...LEADING TO BANDING.

LOCATION...THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED THROUGH THE EVENING. HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED THE BULK OF
THE SNOW TRAVERSING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF
I-94. ON THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE 04.12Z GFS WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF THE
SNOW SOUTHWEST OF LA CROSSE. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW WHICH IS
GENERALLY THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CONCURS WITH EXTRAPOLATION OF
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS.

TIMING...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA BETWEEN 22-03Z WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...THEN EXIT NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 08-12Z WEDNESDAY.

AMOUNTS...04.12Z NAM/GFS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR UPWARD TREND IN QPF
AND THIS FORECAST HAS DONE THE SAME. DID NOT GO FULLY TOWARDS THEIR
AMOUNTS SEEING LIGHTER QPF FROM THE RAP...BUT AN UPWARD TREND IS
NEEDED. SREF QPF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A 0.25 INCH IS LIKELY...BUT
THERE ARE EVEN A FEW MEMBERS SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF A 0.5 INCH.
SHOULD THESE PAN OUT WE WOULD END UP WITH WARNING CRITERIA. RIGHT
NOW...WITH COBB DATA SUGGESTING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS BETWEEN 13-16
TO 1...THINKING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 3-5 INCHES SOUTH AND WEST
OF LA CROSSE. A FEW 6 INCH AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
NEGATIVE EPV. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASE QUICKLY HEADING TO THE NORTHEAST
FROM WINONA TO LA CROSSE NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER
AIR BEING SUCKED INTO THE F-GEN CIRCULATION. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST
UNCERTAIN ALONG AN AXIS FROM WINONA TO LA CROSSE WHERE ANYWHERE FROM
1 TO 5 INCHES SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

AFTER THE SNOW EXITS...MUCH OF WEDNESDAY LOOKS QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER
WHICH WITH SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SOME WEAK OMEGA RESULTING FROM
DIURNAL HEATING...HAVE ADDED SOME FLURRIES. BULK OF THE FLURRY
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

04.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET ALL DEPICT A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT DROP THROUGH ONTARIO
AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS US BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO
PUT SOME SPEED BUMPS IN THE MODERATION.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS ONTARIO ON FRIDAY HELPS
PROPEL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY BLOWING OF THE FRESH SNOW WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE TO NEAR 30 ON THURSDAY. INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
SHOULD LIMIT SOME TEMPERATURE FALL THURSDAY EVENING...WITH RISING
TEMPS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FOLLOWING A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE...READINGS SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE
TEMPERATURE ISSUES...FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE PRECIPITATION. MUCH OF THE DEEPER SYNOPTIC FORCING
IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...BUT GIVEN THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND
LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO BE AROUND...A NEED EXISTS FOR SOME 20-30
PERCENT CHANCES. GIVEN A WARM LAYER PRESENT ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHAT
PRECIP DOES OCCUR COULD EITHER BE LIQUID...SLEET OR SNOW WITH THE
SNOW PROBABILITY HIGHEST TOWARDS TAYLOR COUNTY WITH DEEPER COLD AIR.
SINCE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIGHT...KEPT THE LIQUID FORM AS
FREEZING DRIZZLE / DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THERE
TOO COULD BE ISSUES WITH LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...FAVORING A
DRIZZLE ROUTE.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE A BIT TRICKY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
THE 04.12Z GFS PERSISTS ON DROPPING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT...SENDING A SURGE OF COOLER AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH TAKES UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT TO GET OUT OF HERE. THE
ECMWF...GEM AND UKMET ON THE OTHER HAND CONTINUE TO SAY THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STAYS MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND TRACKS QUICKER TO THE
EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH WARMER SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN EACH
MODEL GROUP HAS STUCK TO THEIR GUNS...HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW A
MODEL CONSENSUS AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
GROUP FLINCHES...THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE RAPIDLY TRENDED COLDER
OR WARMER.

MONDAY REMAINS MOST CONFIDENT TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 6-8C PER ECMWF. PRESENTLY
HAVE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT THESE MAY NEED
TO BE INCREASED MORE...DEPENDING ON HOW SUNDAY PLAYS OUT.

A COOL DOWN THEN ENSUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. INCLUDED SOME 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCES FOR THIS TROUGH. LIMITED MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN
THE LOW CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THIS ENVIRONMENT
COULD LEAD TO PREVAILING LIFR SHOULD THE SNOW BAND STAY STATIONARY
OVER THE TAF SITES. PROBABILITIES FOR THIS OCCURRING ARE ON THE
INCREASING TREND. TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN USED AS THE BANDS OF SNOW
EVOLVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES...MORE OF A PERIODIC LIFR.
HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR FOR UPGRADE TO PREVAILING LIFR.

ALSO...BASED ON A BIT FURTHER NORTH TREND TO RADAR ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...HAVE BROUGHT LOWER CONDITIONS INTO KLSE TAF OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPO LESS THAN 1SM IN SNOW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ041-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ086>088-
     094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 530 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHTS SNOWS EXITING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  LAST LITTLE AREA OF FLURRIES IS MOVING INTO
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN OFF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT
CLOUDS STRETCH BACK ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.  MEANWHILE...NORTHERN WISCONSIN TEMPORARILY CLEARED OUT
THIS MORNING THOUGH ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH STRATUS
PUSHING IN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MID CLOUDS FLOWING IN AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM...WITH FORCING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND MID-LEVEL FGEN...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SNOW OVER SE NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  THE SNOW IS FOLLOWING THE
MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE WHETHER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SNOW PASSES OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND THE TEMPERATURES NEXT.

TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE THERMAL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POSITIONED FROM FAR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE BULLISH
IN PRODUCING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WITHIN THE BAND OF SNOW...BUT
GENERALLY JUST BRUSH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
DIGGING SOUTH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL CAUSE A HUDSON BAY HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTH...AND ADVECT VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR...HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY WITH LAKE
ICE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN. THIS DRY AIR ALSO SUPPORTS KEEPING THE
BAND OF SNOW SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO WILL JUST KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER WOOD AND WAUSHARA COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES TO OCCUR LATE IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT FROM NE TO SW WITH THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR. WITH
WINDS EXPECTING TO DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
OVER N-C AND FAR NE WISCONSIN. STILL THINK TEMPS IN E-C WISCONSIN
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME TANKING DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE NE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...THE DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES.  THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL TEMPS COOL OFF A COUPLE DEGREES COMPARED TO
TODAY...SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS WITH A FEW
LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

THE AREA WILL FINALLY COME OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE WITH TEMPS
APPROACHING NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...AND LIKELY AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY...THEN A RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
EXPECTED (BUT NOT AS COLD AS START OF MARCH). THERE WILL BE A FEW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SHOTS OF WAA...FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES...A MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE IDENTIFYING THE
"WARMEST" DAYS AND BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR A DRY BUT COLD NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. COMBINATION OF
DRY AIR...VEERING WINDS...SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...AND ICE
COVER ON LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL...SO
ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES...BUT PREFER TO
KEEP ANY FLURRY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN
DEVELOP WILL END AS WINDS TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

WAA BEGINS TO RAMP UP ON THURSDAY...MAINLY ALOFT...AS 850MB TEMPS
ATTEMPT TO FINALLY REACH THE 0C MARK. INCREASING MOISTURE IS ALSO
EXPECTED...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY NOW LOOKS DRY FOR THE AREA...AS MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL ALSO BACK OFF ON
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI...BUT KEEP
LIKELY POPS GOING OVER THE NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACH.

BEST MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING STAY ACROSS THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP FOR
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS
ACROSS THE AREA...FEEL AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO
COVER ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR...PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS ABOVE 0C AIR
BRIEFLY PUSHES OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLEET AND SNOW AS THE MAIN PRECIP TYPES TO COVER THE MIXED
PRECIP CHANCE. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS. PREFER TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT AND ALLOW THE MODELS TO
SHOW A STRONGER SIGNAL. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH LOWER TOTALS AS YOU MOVE
SOUTH. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN LOOK FOR CAA TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS DO SHOW A
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT ALL BUT THE GFS KEEP THE AREA DRY AND WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE DRY SOLUTION AND NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP CHANCES. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...THEN MODELS VARY GREATLY
FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF/GEM WOULD FAVOR HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR
40...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS TEMPS IN THE TEENS. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK
TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME RAIN MIX IN WITH THE SNOW...BUT
THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS TO CHANGE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WHILE
DRY ARCTIC AIR/HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM NE TO SW OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WILL EXIST TONIGHT ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THEN
EAST BY LATE WED AFTN...BUT THINKING THE VERY DRY AIR AND ICE OVER THE
LAKE MAKES THE CHANCE VERY SMALL. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......TE








FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE



 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF A BAND OF SNOW IS ALREADY APPROACHING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ALONG A MID-LEVEL FGEN/WARM ADVECTION ZONE. DISTANCE/SPEED TOOL
HAS THIS BAND OF SNOW MOVING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN
23-00Z THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SNOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST...SNOW
TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE ESE TO THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING AND REACH LAKE MICHIGAN BY
12Z TUESDAY.  AHEAD OF THE WAVES...FORCING IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...700-500MB FGEN AND WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PUSH THE AREA
OF SNOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.  UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW THIS WILL
EVOLVE...BUT SOME MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY AREA OF SNOW MAY ALSO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA THIS EVENING ALONG THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THEN MERGE WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF
SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN.  AS A RESULT...THINK ALL
AREAS WILL SEE DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THOUGH PIN POINTING
WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL IS RATHER DIFFICULT DUE TO THE
UNORGANIZED FORCING.  ADDING TO THE COMPLEXITY IS A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGH END SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.  BEST
GUESS IS NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...FROM TOMAHAWK
TO STURGEON BAY WHERE HAVE ABOUT 2 INCHES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.  THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY...AND BE WINDING DOWN
TOWARDS THE START OF THE MORNING COMMUTE...SO DO NOT PLAN ON ANY
ADVISORIES.  BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT SLICK ROADS TONIGHT
AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST.  BUT EVEN
AFTER THIS TIME...THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE OVERHEAD
AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE LEFTOVER
THROUGH 700-600MB UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  SO DESPITE THE
SHORTWAVES PULLING OUT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL REACH UP TO A
HALF INCH...AND MUCH OF THAT WILL COME EARLY IN THE MORNING.  SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THERE WARMING TREND
AND REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

CONTINUED NEAR ZONAL-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN U.S.
THIS PERIOD. SPREAD SEEN IN MODELS/ENSEMBLES LATER PERIODS WITH HOW
HANDLE ENERGY COMING INTO PACIFIC COAST AND EFFECTS ON UPPER RIDGE.
TRENDS ARE FOR TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO NORMS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL BLEND FOR NEXT MONDAY SHOWING UPPER 30S
ATTM. A REAL CONTRAST FROM TODAY.

LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AT ISSUE AGAIN TUE NIGHT AS WEAK WAVE MOVES
THROUGH FLOW. WAA SETS UP OVER BAROCLINIC ZONE TO BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN HALF OF WI. WEAK FGEN/JET SUPPORT...PASSES MAINLY SOUTH
OF CWA. AGAIN MODELS TRENDING TOWARD DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HAVE TIGHTENED GRADIENT UP FOR SNOW-NO SNOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO NORTHERN WI. KEPT CHANCE POPS
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NEXT ISSUE WITH UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
FEATURE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CANADA. MODELS SHOWING A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH FOCUS OF PCPN CHANCES THU OVER NORTHWEST WI AND
NORTHEAST MN...MOVING INTO CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH STATE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THOUGH...AHEAD OF A
WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.  IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW.
MOST OF THE SNOW WILL END EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT
FLURRIES AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MPC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 1114 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN...MAINLY SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN MILWAUKEE TO KENOSHA...AND
INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF RACINE AND KENOSHA
COUNTIES. MODERATE SNOW WITH 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES SHIFTING INTO
OAK CREEK AND SOUTH MILWAUKEE...WITH MORE OFFSHORE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THESE WERE SHIFTING WEST AROUND 10 MPH.

FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES...ALONG WITH PROLONGED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE...HAVE HELPED THIS BAND PERSIST. NONE OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS BAND. SYNOPTIC MODELS
AND HRRR DID SHOW SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHIFTING BACK OVER THE WATER
AND OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 19Z OR SO.

WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND THAT TIME...THEN TAPER OFF
QUICKLY AFTERWARDS. A QUICK 1/2 INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN ANY OF
THE MODERATE SNOW BANDS...WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ELSEWHERE IN
THIS AREA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE QUIET WEATHER WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES
AT OR BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KENOSHA
UNTIL 19Z...AND PERHAPS MILWAUKEE AS WELL. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF
SNOW BAND WILL MAKE IT INTO MILWAUKEE. IF IT DOES...A QUICK 1/2
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. KENOSHA SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
1/2 INCH AS WELL.

CEILINGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WAUKESHA AND MADISON WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING WEST BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS EVENING...AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO MADISON AROUND
06Z TUESDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z TUESDAY.
THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD LINGER FOR A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD BEFORE
ENDING. SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AROUND 1/10 OF AN INCH
PER HOUR. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED.

VISITILITIES WILL BE AROUND ALTERNATE MINIMUMS...WITH CEILINGS
AROUND OR ABOVE 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING
TUESDAY...LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...NEARSHORE WATERS REMAINS ICE COVERED...AS WELL AS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OPEN WATERS. THUS...ANY WAVE ACTION WILL BE
LIMITED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WINDS HAVE NOT QUITE DECOUPLED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH CONTINUED FALLING TEMPERATURES THE
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL BRING WIND CHILLS TO 15 TO 25 BELOW.
DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD END ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
9 AM CST.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.
700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHILE 850
MB LEVELS REMAIN RATHER COLD.  WEAK TO MODERATE 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION...WITH THE STRONGER VALUES ACROSS THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  700 MB LAYERS SATURATE...BUT 925 AND 850 MB REMAIN RATHER
DRY.  CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWER TO 5 TO 10 MB ON THE 285
AND 290 KELVIN ISENTROPIC LAYERS WITH MODERATE LIFT.  WILL THEREFORE
MENTION A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE DELLS...FOND DU LAC...AND SHEBOYGAN.  AMOUNTS WILL BE
LESS THAN AN INCH.

SHOULD SEE SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 10 TO 15
DEGREE FAHRENHEIT RANGE.  WITH THICKENING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...WITH A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP OVER SOUTHERN MN/SOUTHERN WI WILL LIKELY
BRING A QUICK-HITTING INCH OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN WI MAINLY TUESDAY
EVENING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TUE
NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO INCREASED POPS
A LITTLE. THE 00Z NAM WAS A CLEAR OUTLIER WITH QPF FOR THE TUE-WED
SYSTEMS...BUT THE 06Z NAM HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND 00Z GFS MODELS. WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS AND ECMWF ARE HANGING ON
TO HIGHER 1000-850MB RH THROUGH THE DAY WED. WHILE THE MAIN SYSTEM
SNOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...ANY LOW CLOUDS
COULD STILL PRODUCE FLURRIES OVER SOUTHERN WI.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY PERIOD. RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE WED NIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
CLOUDS CAN CLEAR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARMER MIN TEMPS THAN ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY THU WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH WI THU NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TIMING OF PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN WI...SO TOOK CONSENSUS APPROACH. TEMPS ALOFT AND AT THE
GROUND WILL APPROACH OR EVEN RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING FRI AFTERNOON.
THUS KEPT A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE MENTION FOR THAT PERIOD.

THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH SNOW SET
UP ACROSS NORTHERN IL. A CHANGE IN THE MODELS COULD BRING THE
CHANCE OF SNOW BACK INTO SOUTHERN WI.

IF SOUTHERN WI WEATHER IS DRY NEXT WEEKEND IT MEANS WE ARE ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT AND OUR MAX TEMPS WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  SOME HIGH/MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. LIGHT
SNOW EXPECTED TO FALL WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
MADISON AND MILWAUKEE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MARINE...

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS REMAIN ICE COVERED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 1142 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COLD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE HIGH...WITH READINGS A
FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ZERO DEGREE MARK. WIND CHILL
VALUES REMAIN IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AT MANY LOCATIONS OVER EAST-
CENTRAL/CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHER THAN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH
OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...THOUGH CIRRUS FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM
STORM SYSTEM IS CROSSING THE BORDER INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. OTHER
LOW STRATUS IS DRIFTING SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN SHORELINE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS ARE THE MAIN
FOCUS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES EAST TONITE.

TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE MOISTURE THAT IS APPROACHING NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR DRYING UP AS IT RUNS INTO THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS.  WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW FEW TO SCT SKY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN CASE A LITTLE MOISTURE IS PICKED UP OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR.  LIKE YESTERDAY...THE NAM IS DEVELOPING A LAKE INDUCED
SURFACE TROUGH UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.  AS A
RESULT...MAY SEE SCT LAKE CLOUDS MOVE JUST INLAND ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD FLURRIES
INTO THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE THAT HAPPENING.  THE OTHER ISSUE
IS TEMPS/WIND CHILL HEADLINES.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AND THEN SLACKENS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH.  CONDITIONS ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
DECOUPLING THAN LAST NIGHT AND WILL SHOW THAT TREND OCCURRING MAINLY
AFTER 06Z.  THIS MAKES FOR A DILEMMA IN REGARDS TO WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...WHICH REQUIRE AT 3 KTS OF WIND.  THINK THERE COULD BE A
FEW HOUR PERIOD OF WIND CHILL CRITERIA BEING MET BEFORE WINDS BECOME
CALM WITH VALUES FALLING BETWEEN 20 TO 30 BELOW.  TOUGH TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT HEADLINES WITH SUCH A SHORT DURATION EVENT...EVEN
THOUGH THE CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE TANKING TEMPERATURES.  AFTER
COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO ISSUE WIND CHILLS
HEADLINES TO KEEP THE MAP PRETTY.  THE MIDNIGHT CREW CAN CANCEL
EARLY IF DESIRED. DROPPED LOWS BY PERHAPS A DEGREE IN SPOTS.

MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES.  LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.  UNDER PLENTY OF SUN...TEMPS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

NEAR ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES...
WHILE REMAINING BELOW NORM...MODERATE FROM WHAT WE HAVE TODAY.
PATTERN AMPLIFIES SOME TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGE REBUILDING
OVER THE WEST COAST AND TROFFING SETTING UP AGAIN OVER CENTRAL
U.S. IN LATER PERIODS FEATURE TO WATCH...SIG SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SYSTEM AND FOLLOW ON WEAKER WAVES TO
PUSH COLD FRONT THROUGH STATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCE
FOR PCPN THROUGH PERIOD. GULF MOISTURE NOT A PLAYER...SO AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO LOW
TO MID 20S.

IN NEAR TERM...TWO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO
TUE AND AGAIN TUE EVENING. SHORTWAVES COMBINE WITH WEAK WAA AND
JET ENERGY THESE PERIODS...WITH TUE NIGHT SYSTEM AFFECTING MAINLY
SOUTH PART OF CWA. FOR MON NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
YESTERDAY AND TODAY WITH CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING WEAK LIFT THROUGH
DEEP AREA OF GOOD DENDRICTIC GROWTH RATES. HAVE BUMPED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP GIVEN EXPECTED 20 TO 1 SNOW RATIOS. A GOOD INCH
TO UP TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WI LATE TUE
NIGHT...WED MORN...CLEARING SKIES OUT WED. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS EXPECTED WILL BRING SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY TODAY OF LAKE MI SHOWING
LIMITED OPEN WATER...SO WILL NOT PUT INTO GRIDS AT THIS TIME. GFS
STILL ODD MODEL OUT BEING QUICKER WITH NEXT PLAINS SYSTEM BRINGING
PCPN INTO REGION WED NIGHT. HAVE STAYED WITH MAJORITY WITH SLOWER
TIMING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MIDDLE
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
DAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS AND DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. AN INCH OR TWO OF LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW ARE LIKELY
IN MOST PLACES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ013-020>022-031-
037>040-045-048>050-073-074.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>012-018-
019-030-035-036.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......RDM








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 105 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

HIGH RES MODELS...INCLUDING THE RAP AND 3KM HRRR...ARE SHIFTING
THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SNOW TO THE SANGRES AND WETS THIS MORNING.
THIS TREND MATCHES UP WITH THE RECENT OBS TRENDS...AND GUSTY
NE WINDS NO W BEING OBSERVED AT THE WFO. WILL ISSUE A SHORT FUSE
ADVISORY FOR THE WETS AND SANGRES THROUGH SIX AM THIS MORNING.
HEAVIER BANDS SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE SE BY THEN. COULD SEE
RATES OF UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR OF HEAVY WET SNOW...AND TOTALS
OF THREE TO SIX INCHES LOOK REASONABLE. FOR THE SANGRES...THE
GREATER TOTALS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF LA VETA PASS.
FOR THE NRN ADVISORIES...WILL STAY THE COURSE ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS AT THIS POINT THAT THESE ZONES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GIVEN THE TIMING WITH THE MORNING COMMUTE
COULD STILL SEE SOME IMPACT WITH SLUSHY ROADS THIS MORNING. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

...QUICK ROUND OF SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A
SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH AMPLE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING SHOWERS...WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES...ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
OF SAID WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE STATE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY DYNAMIC WITH BEST UVV
ASSOCIATED WITH LF QUAD OF JET TRANSLATING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO
AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE TO THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN
03Z-06Z WHICH CONTINUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS THROUGH
12Z...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH IN ITS WAKE.
WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH UVV WITH PASSING
JET...ALL MODELS HAVE PEGGED NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TELLER AND EL PASO
COUNTIES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM 06Z
TO 12Z...AND HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES 81...82
AND 84 WITH BURSTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. THERE LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO OVERCOME THE NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE ACROSS SOUTHERN
EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES AND HAVE KEPT LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE FAR SE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE
MTS AND RATON MESA WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
FURTHER WEST...SHOULD SEE A QUICK SHOT OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH BEST ACCUMS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS.

THINGS WIND DOWN QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND HAVE KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS THROUGH THE FAR SE PLAINS THROUGH 15Z.
POPS DIMINISHING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING THERE AFTER
WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM. HIGHS LOOK TO BE SOME 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...MOST NOTICEABLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

A BRIEF RESPITE IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURS AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE TRANSLATES OVERHEAD...THEN FLATTENS OUT ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. LEE TROFFING DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS DUE TO ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS. THEN THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH H7 TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE +2 TO +4C RANGE. LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE BREEZY WEST WINDS KICKING UP IN THE MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/WEST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TOO SPOTTY FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
AT THIS POINT. FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL ALSO SEE A TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE LEE TROF
DEEPENS TO THE WEST. HUMIDITY LEVELS OUT THAT WAY APPEAR TO STAY
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MTN AREAS WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING
WINDS AS NEXT TROF APPROACHES.

CHANGES START TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THEN MOVES ACROSS CO DURING THE
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT TIME FRAME.  VAST DIFFERENCES EXIST IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH NAM THE WEAKEST AND MOST PROGRESSIVE
WITH AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.  GFS IS
MORE AMPLIFIED BUT SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROF STILL BACK OVER UT BY
00Z SAT WHICH CUTS OFF ACROSS NW NM BY 12Z SAT...THEN SLOWLY DROPS
THROUGH CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE REGION BY 12Z SUN.  ECMWF
IS FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CO/NW NM BY 00Z SAT...THEN
TAKES THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS NRN NM INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE BY 12Z
SAT WITH LINGERING ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. THE
WHOLE SYSTEM THEN DRAGS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CO BY SATURDAY EVENING.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT EVEN FROM THE CONSENSUS OF
THESE RUNS...THE BOTTOM LINE COMES TO SNOW RAMPING UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.  NAM SOLN IS THE OBVIOUS OUTLIER...AND THE WPC PREFERRED SOLN
IS THE FASTER MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE AS THE PAST SEVERAL SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN
QUITE PROGRESSIVE.  STILL THIS ONE STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING
SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE NE PROVIDING FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS
FOR THE NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF TELLER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY...THEN FOR THE WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
CONCEPTUALLY LAPSE RATES COULD BE FAIRLY STEEP AND COULD BRING HEAVY
WET SPRING-LIKE SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN GRIDS FOR THESE PERIODS.  TOO SOON TO GO OUT
WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS THESE ARE HIGHLY LIKELY TO CHANGE.  BUT
ALL EYES WILL BE ON THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM POISED TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WED.  TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS LATTER
STORM...BUT WILL CARRY ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR TUESDAY.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

AT KCOS...SNOW BREAKING OUT ACROSS NRN EL PASO COUNTY AND ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE AS OF 0530Z...AND EXPECT IT TO REACH KCOS BETWEEN
06-07Z. TERMINAL WILL THEN SEE A PERIOD OF IFR VIS IN SNOW FROM
07-10Z...WITH PERHAPS A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS. PRECIP SHIFTS RAPIDLY SOUTH
AFTER 10Z...AND EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS 10-12Z...THEN
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY.

AT KPUB...EXPECT A FEW -SHRA/-SHSN AFTER 07Z WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP. SHOWERS END
11Z-13Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

AT KALS...BEST CHANCE OF -SHSN AND BRIEF MVFR FROM 06-08Z...THEN
CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 10Z ONWARD.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ081-082-084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ072>075-079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 1111 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. A REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
MOVING OUT TO SEA FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE: CONCERNED ABOUT THE PCPN SEEN ON RADAR AND
OBSERVED MD SHORE VCNTY OXB. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SNOW - THEORETICALLY
LACK OF ICE NUCLEI BECAUSE I DONT THINK THE 00Z/5 WALLOPS ISLAND
SOUNDING WOULD PERMIT SEEDING FROM THE -36C 03Z CIRRUS OVERHEAD
WHICH LOOKS TO ME IS ABOUT AT 25000FT WITH FAR TOO MUCH DRY AIR
FOR ICE NUCLEI SEEDING BETWEEN THAT CIRRUS LAYER AND THE SATURATED
PORTION OF THE 00Z/5 WALLOPS SOUNDING BELOW BELOW 7800 FT WHERE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL IS SEEN WITH MOST OF THE SOUNDING
BETWEEN -1 AND -4C.

IF THIS AREA OF PCPN DOES OVERSPREAD SE SUSSEX COUNTY DE AS PER THE
00Z/5 NAM (NOT THE 0Z RAP OR HRRR)...IT COULD TURN TO LIGHT OR
VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS - SLEET. WE`VE POSTED A FB REQ
FOR INFORMATION. HWO UPDATED.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH IT IS
STARTING TO PULL FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
COMBINED WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD MAKE FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO SLIDE OVER THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY. IN ADDITION,
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED, DESPITE NEARLY CALM WINDS SINCE SUNSET. THUS HAVE RAISED
THE LOWS IN THIS AREA SLIGHTLY.

THOSE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD START CLEARING AFTER 08Z WHICH
MIGHT PERMIT CONSIDERABLE LATE RADIATIONAL COOLING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A RATHER WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAX SHEARING OUT
WELL TO OUR NORTH WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING
UPSTREAM WILL KEEP INCREASING HEIGHTS FILTERING INTO THE REGION
TOMORROW, THOUGH NOTHING DRASTIC. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT DOES SAG THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE...COULD BE
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AS WE HEAD BACK INTO THE DEEPER COLD
AIR.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY
WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL BE MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING TOO MUCH UNDER A MODIFYING AIRMASS WITH THE RIDGING IN
PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: THE MAIN FEATURE IN THIS
PERIOD WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS TRACK WILL INCREASE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS SOMEWHAT BUT KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FAIRLY LIMITED. IF SOME PRECIPITATION WERE TO OCCUR ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF THIS SYSTEM RAIN OR A RAIN/WET SNOW MIX WOULD
FALL. IT IS EASY TO REMEMBER SEVERAL PAST SYSTEMS THAT HAVE SLOWLY
BACKED UP TOWARD THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
FIRMLY OUT TO SEA AFTER MEANDERING ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE FOR
MOST OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE SPREAD TO THE
NORTH IN BOTH THE 09Z SREF AND THE LATEST 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
SO A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER THE DELMARVA AND SOUTH
JERSEY. STAYED RELATIVITY CLOSE TO MEX/MET GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD
SINCE IT WILL WITHIN THE RANGE OF THE GUIDANCE CLUSTER.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY MEANING A
NICE DAY OVERALL. AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TEMPERATURES
COULD REACH THE LOW AND MID 50`S ON SATURDAY FROM PHL SOUTH. WENT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMER EC TWO METER AND EC STAT GUIDANCE, WHICH
IS ALSO MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS SET OF GUIDANCE. THIS IS BASED ON
WARMING MID LEVELS IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE, IT IS MARCH
AFTER ALL! BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY WITH ONLY
SOME SCATTERED RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MIXED ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE
CMC AND ECMWF ARE DRIER OR ABOUT THE SAME IN TERMS OF ONLY SHOWING
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WAS LEFT IN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING IN WITH THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY AND MORE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL BE KNOCKED BACK INTO THE
40`S AFTER STARTING NEAR FREEZING. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY: LOOKS MAINLY DRY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN BRINGING IN SHOTS OF COLD AIR AT TIMES
IN THIS PERIOD. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF THIS WHILE THE
12Z GFS HAS A SHOT OF COLDER AIR ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF AT 00Z HAD A
SEVEN STANDARD DEVIATION SPREAD WITH TEMPERATURES AMONG IT`S
MEMBERS BY TUESDAY, SO THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
PERIOD. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC IN THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS A MIDDLE
GROUND WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. ALSO OF NOTE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD
ANOTHER LARGE STORM SYSTEM COUPLED WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
ANOTHER WINTRY SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE LATEST RUN HAS BACKED OFF OF
THIS AND IS MUCH WARMER, PLEASE EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN HEARING
ABOUT STORM RUMORS ON TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS
IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE 00Z MODELS HAVING A SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE REGION. DID ADJUST TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON
TUESDAY BASED ON THE 12Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 10000 FT SHOULD CLEAR AFTER 08Z. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO START, BUT INCREASE
A BIT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST..LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NORTH
WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. A DECK OF MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY ON WESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA MAY ARRIVE FROM THE NE VCNTY KACY AROUND 06Z/THURSDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH ACROSS SE CANADA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH CLOUDY SKIES NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FOR KMIV, KACY AND KILG TO THE SOUTH WITH SOME MVFR
RESTRICTIONS.


SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS.
PERHAPS SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF OUR WATERS OVERNIGHT THOUGH THERE COULD BE A STRAY
WINTRY MIXED SHOWER OR TWO OFF OF DELAWARE.

AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NE AS AS ALREADY STRONG AND STILL STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE. NE WINDS SHOULD
GUST 25-30 KT AT TIMES AFTER 04Z/6.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A COASTAL
STORM MOVES NEARBY. WINDS GUSTS OVER 25 KTS EXPECTED AND SEAS
GREATER THAN 5 FT ON THE OCEAN. IF THE STORM MOVES CLOSER OR DEEPENS
MORE...THERE MAY BE SOME GALE GUSTS OVER THE SRN OCEAN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... SEAS ARE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER/JOHNSON   1110P
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1110P
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/HEAVENER/O`HARA 1110P







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

 414 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TODAY. AN EXPECTED SURFACE LOW IS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
TOMORROW. AS IT DOES, IT WILL INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
LAYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTH FLORIDA. PLUS, THERE IS
A 500MB TROUGH DIGGING AND DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
WILL CAUSE THE SFC LOW TO DEEPEN. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF. THE NAM IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
GFS. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS TO MAKE LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL THE MODELS HAVE THE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND.

NOW, AS FOR HOW THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. FOR TODAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW, WILL WORK TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE. CUMULUS FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY.
SOME OF THE CU IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND MAY
INTERACT WITH A WEAK CONVERGENCE AREA THAT LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE IN
THE LAKE REGION. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS, HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS IN PALM BEACH
COUNTY AND THE LAKE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NAM MODEL SOUNDING FOR PBI SHOWS CAPE AROUND 1700 JOULES, 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KTS, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS, A
FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 12300 FT, LOW 0-3KM STORM REL HELICITY, A
VEERING WINDS PROFILE, PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
WITHIN 2 SD OF NORMAL, AND STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10KTS. THE
700-500MB LAPSE RATE IS AROUND 5.3. THE NAM SOUNDING IS ALSO
SHOWING A STRONG CAP AT AROUND 700 MB THAT COULD HINDER ANY
DEVELOPMENT AT ALL. THE MODELS DO SHOW A 90-100KT JET AT 250MB
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THEY DO DISAGREE WITH THE EXACT
POSITION. HOWEVER, THIS JET COULD GIVE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO
OVERCOME THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON. THE CAP DOES ERODE BY THIS
EVENING, BUT IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO MAXIMIZE CONVECTION TODAY.
ALSO, WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
AS CURRENT PARAMETERS DO NOT FAVOR ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.

GOING FORWARD TO TOMORROW AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES. CAPE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 JOULES. THE
700-500MB LAPSE RATE DOES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 5.7. THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS AROUND 12000FT, AND 500MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -11C. THE WIND
PROFILE IS SLIGHTLY VEERING WITH HEIGHT. 0-3KM HELICITY WILL ONLY
BE AROUND 69. THE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30KTS AND
THE 0-6KM AROUND 45KTS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 250MB JET, BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE, KEEPING THE AREA
OUT OF THE ENTRANCE OR EXIT REGIONS. THIS MAY LIMIT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ON THURSDAY. ALSO, THERE MAY BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL HAMPER INSOLATION. SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR
SO FLORIDA? BASICALLY IT GIVES THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE GIVEN PARAMETERS, SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG, WITH POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE DUE TO
WIND AND/OR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, BY THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, CONVECTION MAY WANE AS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REDUCE THE
DESTABILIZATION. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE LOW
WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH UNTIL IT EMERGES OVER
THE ATLANTIC, WHICH PUTS THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING, PROBABLY MEANS MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH THE FRONT BRINGING A
LINE OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY EVEN HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OF
COURSE, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW AND WHAT AFFECT CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE ON DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ANY CHANGES IN TIMING AND/OR CONDITIONS COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE CURRENT FORECAST.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A COOLER AIR MASS TO BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR. ALSO, THE DEW POINTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR, IF NOT AT THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURE, WHICH COULD BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND PASSES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR KAPF DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR AND JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS
SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL MODELS KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...SO KEPT
ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING SOUTHERLY WIND TO SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
IT WILL ALSO CAUSE THE SEAS TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE, BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY, THEN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THEY WILL ALSO INCREASE, CAUSING SEAS TO BUILD
EVEN FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT
IN THE GULF WATERS AND 5 TO 7 FT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE GULF STREAM OFF PALM BEACH. SEAS WILL PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  69  82  70 / 30 20 60 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  71  83  72 / 20 20 50 40
MIAMI            83  71  84  71 / 20 20 40 40
NAPLES           81  67  80  67 / 20 20 60 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...13/SI
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

 1256 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR KAPF DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR AND JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS
SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL MODELS KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...SO KEPT
ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014/

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TO THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 138 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN UNEVENTFUL WITH ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE MID LATITUDES BECOMING INCREASINGLY
PROGRESSIVE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS
PATTERN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO LOOKING VERY SIMILAR THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG LATE
TONIGHT OVER MAINLY THE INTERIOR UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A NEAR
CALM WIND. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS IN DEPICTING A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE THERE IS
SOME DISCREPANCY ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AS TO THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
OF THE TROUGH. THE NAM DEEPENS THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW MUCH
FASTER AND THEREFORE HAS LESS OF AN IMPACT TO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE
MAIN DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE ECMWF AND GFS
HOWEVER DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW MUCH LATER AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
DEEPEN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH BEFORE CLOSING OFF. THIS WOULD HAVE A
GREATER INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL WEATHER WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH
OF THESE MODELS SHOW MOSTLY UNIFORM DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WELL IN
ADVANCE OF THE MAIN IMPACTS WHICH WOULD BE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERITY OF
THE STORMS ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE CERTAINLY
CANNOT BE RULED OUT JUST YET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CAPE
INCREASING TO 1300-1500 J/KG BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS DECENT
ENERGY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -10
TO -11 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -4 TO -5. HOWEVER,
THE NAM KEEPS THE PWAT AT LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES WHICH WOULD GREATLY
LIMIT THE INSTABILITY WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PWAT IN THE
RANGE OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES. SO ALL IN ALL, IT REMAINS A WAIT AND SEE
APPROACH WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME AND PUTTING
MORE WEIGHT ON THE GFS AND ECMWF.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING
BACK TO THE NORTH. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THEY
BOTH DIFFER AS TO THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS
MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ALSO, THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER AND STRONGER
THAN THAT OF THE CASE OF THE 00Z RUN. SO AGAIN, STAY TUNED.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY BUILDING WIND AND SEAS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  68  82  65 / 10 20 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  70  82  67 / 10 20 40 40
MIAMI            84  70  82  67 / 10 20 30 40
NAPLES           82  66  77  64 / 10 20 40 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 449 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE FRONT. THE LAST IN THE SERIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL DIRECT
COLD AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE HOVERING AROUND
32 IN THE COUNTIES OF LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD AND AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN MAY BE OCCURRING. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED BECAUSE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND
SOUTH BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
RAIN BUT EXPECT THIS WOULD BE CONFINED TO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF
SUPPORT GREATER RAIN COVERAGE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST.

THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM TODAY BECAUSE OF THE
WEDGE PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NAM SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE GFS INDICATES DEEPER MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART BY
12Z THURSDAY. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE POP
FORECAST. BOTH MODELS SHOW MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE FORECASTED CATEGORICAL POPS. WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORT LIKELY POPS. USED AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THE QPF FORECAST. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM
AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BELOW FREEZING LAYER AROUND
2000 FEET IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART. WE BELIEVE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE WILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND THE WARM NOSE ABOVE
THE COLD LAYER APPEARS QUITE WARM. KEPT THE FORECAST CONSISTENT
AND FORECASTED ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGING EAST OF
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE SURFACE WEDGE
ALSO BREAKING DURING THAT TIME. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH THE POP ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY
BRINGING THE CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN. VFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MVFR BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH
GFS AND NAM SHOWING A TEMPORARY BREAK IN LOW CIGS BY THIS EVENING
FOR ALL TAF SITES...SO HAVE RAISED CIGS TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY
01Z THURSDAY. CIGS WILL LOWER AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
MOISTURE AGAIN INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1149 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...
256 PM CST

SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE FIRST
ARRIVING TONIGHT.  THE SECOND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK. A BRIEF
WARM UP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING FOR THE WEEKEND.  HOWEVER...TEMPS REBOUND MONDAY WITH DARE
I SAY NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED?

REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TRICKY FORECAST PERIOD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.  CONFIDENT THAT THE
ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE SNOW AT SOME POINT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW AND FOR HOW
LONG.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND IT
WILL SHIFT EAST AND FILL TONIGHT. ALOFT THE SHORTWAVE THAT FORCED
SNOW THIS MORNING IS TO OUR EAST WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH
TEXAS.  THE NEXT TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES AND IT WILL
PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.

A LARGE HIGH IS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND IT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK WAVE MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE FEATURES
A DEEP LAYER OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT COINCIDES WITH A SATURATED
LAYER.  HOWEVER...THE SATURATED LAYER IS WARMER THAN THE IDEAL
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...BUT IT IS BELOW 0C. SNOW IS EXPECTED...BUT
IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE FORCING INDICATES.  ALSO
PUSHED THE TIMING OF THE SNOW BACK BY A FEW HOURS.  THE NAM12 LOOKS
TOO FAST WHILE THE RAP IS TOO SLOW. AS SUCH USED OUR LOCAL WRF MODEL
FOR TIMING...AND AMOUNTS AS THE WRF SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE PRECIP.  EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF I-88 AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
SOUTH OF I-88.  THE 4 INCH AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED ABOUT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING 2 TO 3 INCHES. NOTE THESE VALUES ARE LESS THAN THE
MAJORITY OF COBB OUTPUT...AND THIS IS DUE TO THE CONCERNS ABOUT SNOW
GROWTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF FORCING...DECIDED TO
SLIGHTLY RAISE SNOWFALL TOTALS.

SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN IL...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3AM.  THE BAND WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
MID MORNING...AND MAY SHIFT QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. THE
LOCAL WRF INDICATED THE BAND WOULD SHIFT SOUTH QUICKLY...BUT DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT FAST.  SNOW IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  FORCING WEAKENS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SO EXPECTING THE
SNOW SOUTH OF I-80 TO BE SLOW AND STEADY.

IN ADDITION TO THE BAND OF SNOW...MAY SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW RIGHT NOW.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST.
DELTA T/S ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THE THICK ICE COVER WILL LIMIT
MIXING. BUT INCLUDED A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN PERIODS OF FLURRIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE JUMPED WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WEST.
HOWEVER THINKING WE WILL STILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. SO ENDED UP WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS...AND TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS ALONG THE LAKE.  TEMPS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TOMORROW WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL TO THE MID TEENS OVER NW INDIANA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WHILE
ITS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 30.  WINDS TURN SOUTH
BEHIND THE HIGH AND WAA KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR.  HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING AND POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 40S!

A SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH ITS SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT.  PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL.
HAVE IT STARTING AS RAIN AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS THE COLD
AIR FUNNELS BACK IN.  850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -3C AND THE
MAIN POINT IS THE COLD AIR REALLY IS NOT THAT COLD AND IT WILL NOT
LAST.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S.

EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
AND THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLDER AIR SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WARM UP.  SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY WITH  HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.  THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY HELP TEMPS BECOME NORMAL IF
NOT ABOVE NORMAL.  RAISED ALLBLEND TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO AND
STILL MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.  HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS FEATURES
PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JEE

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SNOW DEVELOPING DURG THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND LASTING INTO LATE
  WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT LEAST PERIODIC IFR/POSSIBLE BRIEF LIFR
  EXPECTED.

* ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDING LATE MORNING...SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE
  THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS SHOW THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW SAGGING SOUTH INTO
NRN IL IS HAVING A HARD TIME OVERCOMING THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.
WHILE HAVE MAINTAINED THE CURRENT TIMING WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH
THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SNOW INTO THE AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT THE TIMING OF SNOW ONSET MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED
BACK AN HOUR OR SO. SO...WHILE TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER...THE
OVERALL TREND APPEARS ON TRACK. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THERE SHOULD
BE A HEAVIER PERIOD OF SNOWFALL FOR A COUPLE HOURS WITH IFR VSBY
LIKELY AND BRIEF LIFR POSSIBLE. ACCUMS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE
LOOK LIKELY. MAIN ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING...HOWEVER SOME OCNL VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY
AS MOIST NE FLOW CONTINUES OFF THE LAKE. PARAMETERS APPEAR
UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW...IN
PARTICULAR...A NEARLY ENTIRELY ICE COVERED LAKE WILL LIMIT ANY
KIND OF MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE LAKE SURFACE. TYPICALLY THIS TYPE
OF NELY FLOW OFF OF AN OPEN LAKE MICHIGAN WOULD BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AS WELL AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...THE LACK OF THIS MOISTURE FLUX FROM AN ICE COVERED LAKE
WILL NOT ONLY REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW...IT
WILL ALSO LIMIT THE DEGREE TO WHICH CIGS MIGHT LOWER. SO...WILL
MAINTAIN THE MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE IMPROVING
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW START TIME AND INTENSITY LATE
  TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE SNOW ENDING TIME WED MORNING AND LINGERING -SN OR
  FLURRY CHANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS TRENDS WEDNESDAY.

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VIS TRENDS WITH THE SNOW...THOUGH
  LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR PROBABLE.

SATURDAY...CHANCE OF -SN.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR PROBABLE.

IZZI

&&

.MARINE...
224 PM CST

THE MAIN STORY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IS LIKELY THE ICE COVERAGE WHICH
IS NOW NEAR 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE LAKE...THE HIGHEST SO FAR THIS
SEASON. WE WILL START TO SEE SOME DAYS WITH TEMPERATURE PUSHING THE
FREEZING MARK DURING THE AFTERNOONS...INCLUDING FRIDAY AND A FEW
DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A SLOW MELT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH
WESTERLY WINDS TURNING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A RIDGE AXIS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS
TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY...AND THEN SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT DOES
TIGHTEN SOME ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESHENING UP INTO THE 15 TO 25
KT RANGE...PERHAPS A FEW 30 KT GUSTS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 450 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ACRS NRN IA TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
WEAK/DISJOINTED WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE/LIFT PROFILES WITH
DOWNSTREAM EXTENT TODAY AS PRIMARY DIGGING EMPHASIS IN LONGWAVE
PATTERN BECOMES RELEGATED TO WEST TX. DOWNSTREAM DERISION ASSURED
WITH AXIS OF 200MB PLUS 925MB CPD THROUGH FAR SERN FA AS WELL AS
SUCCINCT NEGATIVE PRESSURE ADVECTION WITHIN I285-290K LYR /ASSOCD
WITH STRONG JAMES BAY/CNTL ONT ANTICYCLONE/ TO DROP SSEWD THROUGH
SRN LWR MI INTO ERN FA THIS AFTN. FOR NWRN QUARTER OF CWA
HOWEVER... PRIMARILY A HIGH POP/RELATIVELY LOW QPF EVENT EXPECTED
WITH INITIAL AND EFFECTIVE SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES ALREADY
UNDERWAY INTO FAR SWRN LWR MI WITH MARKED DROP TO VSBYS TO NEAR
2SM AT SNOW ONSET. SOME HINT OF UPPER LEVEL JET DIVERGENCE
ENHANCEMENT MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL ACRS WRN AND INTERIOR
INDIANA COUNTIES AS 3H JET CORE STRENGTHENS TO 115-120 KTS BY 21
UTC OVR LONDON ONT. MINOR DROP TO TEMPS TO TODAY GIVEN LIGHT
SHALLOW CAA. AND SLIGHT LWRG TO TONIGHT MIN TEMPS IN ALL BUT SERN
CWA WITH LOSS OF CLOUD COVER AND PARTIAL DECOUPLING PSBL BY
DAYBREAK AS RIDGELINE SLIDES FARTHER SWD THROUGH GRTLKS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AS A DOMINANT UPSTREAM RIDGE PERSISTS.
HOWEVER...A TEMPORARY BREAKDOWN IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE AND REACHES
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TEMPORARY BREAKDOWN WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO
BECOME MORE HIGH ZONAL OVER THE REST OF THE COUNTRY WITH HIGHS
TOPPING 40 DEGREES...AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50 DEGREES ON MONDAY
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FELT MORE COMFORTABLE
WITH THE GFS AND GEM WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF CONTINUITY AS OPPOSED TO
THE ECMWF WHICH HAS TOTALLY ABANDONED THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL MIDWEST
SYSTEM ADVERTISED BY A NUMBER OF EARLIER RUNS. ALSO LIKE THE GFS
WITH COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH A LARGE
ANTICYCLONE SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. ALSO...THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES HAVE
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS COOL PATTERN AND FOR THE MOST PART
HAVE VERIFIED VERY WELL THIS PAST WINTER. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE 8
DAY 500 MB ANALOGS SHOW A LARGE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE GEM ENSEMBLES DO SHOW SOME MODERATION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT THEN KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL LATER NEXT
WEEK. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY WHEN SOME WEST COAST
SHORT WAVE ENERGY PHASES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPPING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA. THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM SHOW A WEAK SYSTEM WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE. GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW. ALSO LEFT
A WANING CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY GIVEN VIRTUALLY NO FORCING OVER THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

CONTD PRIOR TREND WRT DELAY ONSET OF SNOWFALL PER UPSTREAM
TRENDS/LATEST RAP GUIDANCE. POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS GREATEST
ACROSS NWRN IN/KSBN AIRFIELD AND TARGET REDUCTIONS THERE MID/LATE
AM HOURS. ANTICIPATED GRADUAL SYSTEM DECAY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
PRECLUDES IFR/ALT FUELING REQUIREMENTS AT KFWA AMID OVERALL LOW
PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 100 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP OUT OF MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL
TRACK ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND WASH OUT
ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH CAN
BE EXPECTED WEST OF US 31 WITH DECREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EAST.
SOME AREAS IN NORTHWEST OHIO MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY SNOW AT ALL. HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH POPS IN THIS AREA FROM THE UPPER 40S DOWN TO
THE LOW 30S TO INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY. FRONTOGENESIS FORCING WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 21Z WITH SNOWFALL COMING TO AN END BY
00Z. CONSALL GUIDANCE CAME IN 7 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. NOT CONVINCED THAT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS...SO WENT WITH BCALLBLEND AS A GOOD
COMPROMISE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

GENERALLY TRANQUIL PD XPCD.

PERSISTENT PNA PATTN ACRS NOAM LOOKS TO RELAX ITS GRIP MID-LT PD AS
ERN CANADA TROUGHING/WRN US RIDGING BOTH DEAMPLIFY FOR A TIME.
RESULTING HIGH ZONAL FLW WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE MODERATION
COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING W/ACTIVE SRN STREAM FLW LOOKING MORE AND MORE
DOMINANT W/TIME. HWVR WK SYS/S EMBEDDED WITHIN NRN STREAM FLW STILL
POTENTIALLY PROBLEMATIC INCLUDING NEXT SW PROGGED TO SKIRT THE NRN
LAKES/SE CANADA ON SAT. REGARDLESS NWD MSTR RTN SHLD PROVE DIFFICULT
PER UNPHASED SPLIT FLW REGIME DOMINATING OUT WEST. THUS XPC WK SYS
ON SAT TO BE SIMILAR TO WED SHRT TERM SYS. AS A RESULT HAVE
DISMISSED ALLBLEND SOLUTION IN FVR OF DERIVED CLUSTERED CONSENSUS
MEAN AND NARROWED POP MENTION TO JUST DY5 (SAT). TEMPS CONTD BLO
NORMAL THROUGH THE PD BUT XPCD TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW TO
UPPER 30S MID PD AND MODERATE FURTHER INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
BY DY8.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

CONTD PRIOR TREND WRT DELAY ONSET OF SNOWFALL PER UPSTREAM
TRENDS/LATEST RAP GUIDANCE. POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBYS GREATEST
ACROSS NWRN IN/KSBN AIRFIELD AND TARGET REDUCTIONS THERE MID/LATE
AM HOURS. ANTICIPATED GRADUAL SYSTEM DECAY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
PRECLUDES IFR/ALT FUELING REQUIREMENTS AT KFWA AMID OVERALL LOW
PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 332 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MO. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS
NEARLY ZONAL OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. AT 00Z S/WS EMBEDDED IN THE
ZONAL FLOW WERE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE HAD SPREAD SNOW INTO THE
NORTHERN CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WAVE...PATCHY SNOW WAS OCCURRING FROM NEBRASKA
INTO WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

FGEN FORCING AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS S/W HAS SET UP THIS MORNING
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHERN IL. IT APPEARS THE BANDED SNOW
WILL STAY OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED OVER NW IL TO AROUND 3 INCHES FOR THE MAX.
WITH THE BANDED NATURE OF THE SNOW THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE HIT
AND MISS SO NOT ALL AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WILL SEE THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS. TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO THE ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE
AND DUBUQUE COUNTIES WHICH ARE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BETTER
FORCING. THE ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED SOON FOR BUCHANAN COUNTY
WHERE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER AN INCH.

MODELS SAG THE FGEN FORCING SOUTH THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN ROCKIES S/W. THEY COUPLE THE FGEN WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA
SUPPORTING A NARROW EAST-WEST BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING NEAR I80
EARLY THIS MORNING AND PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNTS WITH THIS BAND ARE IN
QUESTION AT THIS POINT WITH THE MESO SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING AN
AXIS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG I80 CORRIDOR. THE HRRR PROGS ARE IN
LINE WITH THE HIGHER QPF RAP13 BUT THE HRRR/S LATEST RUN IS
OVERDOING THE AREA AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA.  THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS
QPF/SNOWFALL OVER THE SAME AREA. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
LOW QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS WHICH YIELD A SWATH OF AROUND 1 INCH NEAR I80
FROM THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
TONIGHT SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH TEENS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT
259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A
PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL AND SOMEWHAT SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW KEEPS ARCTIC
AIR BOTTLED UP WELL TO THE NORTH. A MINOR SETBACK WILL BE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A CANADIAN HIGH...FOLLOWING A FRIDAY/S
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION
KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA BELOW FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND RETURNING
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ON A
PERIOD OF LIFT BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WHEN LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH OVER SE CANADA AND DEVELOPING FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WILL PRODUCE A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD WARM AT
LEAST UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SW...WHILE A SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST MAY LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S.
FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE NW
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING WITH POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. THIS TIMING SHOULD ALLOW THE PREFRONTAL SW
WINDS TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE FAR SW
POTENTIALLY TOUCHING 50. THE GFS...WITH ITS HIGH MOISTURE BIAS IN
THE LOW LEVELS...WOULD SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH DOES NOT LOOK REALISTIC. WILL INSTEAD KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO POST FRONTAL...OVER THE FAR WEST AND
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW DURING THE DAY...THEN SNOW
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA UNDER AN AXIS OF
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT THAT DROPS INTO CENTRAL IL
AND SOUTHERN MO. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND MAGNITUDE OF FORCING
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN WESTERN CANADA DROPS
SOUTHEAST PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING...AND FOR NOW...THE MODEL
CONSENSUS REFLECTS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AND HOLDS ONTO
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING...AS
SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE COLDER AIRMASS AND SNOW COVER WILL
RETURN HIGHS TO THE 20S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 30S...WITH LOWS AS
MENTIONED POSSIBLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THERE REMAINS LOW CONSISTENCY IN THE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE FEATURES AMONG MODELS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A WARMING TREND LOOKS LIKELY FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING HIGH
SUNDAY. CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY...THEN
REACHING THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND POTENTIALLY MUCH WARMER...
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION BASED ON POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIKELY TO AFFECT THE
REGION SOMEWHERE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS.  THEN...CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP AT DBQ BY 05/08Z...CID BY 05/10Z...MLI BY 05/12Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE SNOW UNTIL 05/14Z...MAINLY
AT DBQ. THEN MVFR CIGS OF 1-3K AGL WITH VSBYS 2-5 MILES AND ISOLATED
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 06/00Z. EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CARROLL-
     JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...NICHOLS









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 258 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS HAVING ANY KIND OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
OUTPUT BUT I DIGRESS. WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THIS MORNING...IF ANY...AND THE PHASE OF THAT
PRECIPITATION...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING ON FRIDAY...AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT STILL
PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH WITH ONE MOVING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
ANOTHER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG PV ANOMALIES
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.

AIR MASS WARMED CONSIDERABLY OVER YESTERDAY BUT ANOTHER FRONT MOVED
THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO TAKE AWAY THAT WARMING. AT JET LEVEL...
MODELS HAVING A LOT OF TROUBLE HERE. THEY ARE EITHER UNDERDOING WIND
SPEEDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND JET NOSING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN OR HAVE THE POSITION OF THOSE JETS CORRECTLY. AT MID LEVELS...
THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS INITIALIZED TOO COLD TO OUR NORTH. THE
CANADIAN WAS DOING BEST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SINCE AROUND 06Z RADAR HAS SHOWN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO/THROUGH AREA INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. 00Z NAM...03Z RUC AND EARLIER HRRR KEPT THE AREA NEARLY
DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INDICATED. HOWEVER
LATER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD MORE PRECIPITATION BUT KEPT MOST OF IT
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO STATELINE. 06Z RUN HAS CAUGHT ONTO
WHAT THE RADAR IS SHOWING AND IS SHOWING A NICE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING ACROSS.

ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER JET SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. DESPITE INITIAL
ANALYSIS PROBLEMS...THE MODELS DO TAKE A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
ACROSS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. BY 18Z LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF NORTH
TO SOUTH JET LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST BY 00Z. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. ALL THIS IS CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY AND
CONSIDERING WHAT RADAR AND REALITY ARE SHOWING...MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE POPS THIS MORNING. ALSO HAVE BEEN GETTING A MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. LOOKS LIKE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THIS LOOKS CAPTURED
REASONABLY WITH THE GRIDS AND ALSO DID NOT CHANGE.

MODEL DIFFERENCE IN HOW COLD OR WARM TO MAKE IT TODAY. LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION. MAJORITY
OF THE DATA SUPPORTED GOING MORE ON THE WARMER SIDE. SO ENDED UP
ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE WHAT IS
CAPTURING REALITY AT THIS TIME. DID ADJUST DOWN A LITTLE BIT
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL HAVE THE CLOUDS LONGEST.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL LATELY DUE TO NOT HAVING THE SNOWFIELD
CAPTURED CORRECTLY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND WHAT HAS BEEN
DOING BEST IN THE NON-SNOW COVERED AREAS SUPPORTED CURRENT KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH EITHER VERY LATE
IN THE NIGHT OR EARLY THE MORNING ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES FOR
THIS PERIOD AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND ALMOST LOOK LIKE A SPAGHETTI
PLOT. MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...SPECIFICALLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO BREAK OFF THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF THE TROUGH. MODELS LOOK LIKE THEY DIVE A STRONGER JET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SO THAT GENERAL SCENARIO LOOKS
REASONABLE. AS IT LOOKS NOW THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WHERE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS IT.

DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES BEING SO GREAT AND THE GENERAL IDEA OF WHAT
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MATCHES WITH THE FORECAST...WHICH ALSO MATCHES
UP WELL WITH THIS PATTERN AND WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON...WILL NOT
CHANGE THE POPS AND WEATHER. ALTHOUGH COULD SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEING LESS CONSIDERING THE TREND OF THE MODELS BEING FURTHER
WEST. FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT GOES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. DID LOWER THE
MAXES SOME CONSIDERING THIS BUT COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL AMOUNT OF
COOLING NEEDED. ALSO WITH THE GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE 3
HOUR PRESSURE RISES THAT MOVE ACROSS BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS LOOK TO
BE IN THE WINDY CATEGORY.

THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW WILL END EARLY SATURDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS
TO THE EAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON REPRESENTATION OF THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THAT
PERIOD. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN A RATHER STRONG KICKER BEHIND THE
INITIAL WAVE...BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH KICKER. CANNOT JUSTIFY
MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. IT SHOULD HOWEVER COOL
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 907 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TAFS IS STILL THE TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND
MVFR CEILINGS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DID NOT MATERIALIZE FOR THE
EARLIER TAF ISSUANCE AS MODELS WERE DEPICTING. THEREFORE...TRUSTING
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE IS A BIT HARD AT THIS POINT.
ALSO...THE UPDATED RAP AND NAM HAVE BEEN REMOVING PRECIPITATION
AND DELAYING ITS ONSET. GLANCED AT THE HRRR TO SEE IF IT HAD THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW HANDLED FAIRLY WELL. WENT AHEAD AND WENT
WITH THIS MODEL FOR NOW SINCE OTHER MODELS STILL INDICATE ENHANCED
LIFT OVER THE AREA DURING THE TIMES THE HRRR BROKE OUT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO KGLD
AND KMCK AROUND 09Z WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING FOR KMCK AT 11Z AND
KGLD AT 12Z. LEFT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT MVFR INSTEAD OF
IFR...WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS MATERIALIZES AND AMENDMENTS WILL
BE MADE WHEN NECESSARY. THIS IS STILL A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AROUND 16Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 23Z UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JDK
AVIATION...ALW





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 356 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2014

...Updated for long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Enhanced radar returns from the Mosaic radar loop over northeast
Colorado earlier this morning related well to an area of 700mb
frontogenesis at 06z from the the latest RAP, NAM and GFS. Each
Model move this area of frontogenesis across southwest Kansas
between 12z and 21z. In addition the model soundings today
suggested the precipitation type will be mainly snow as this band
of steadier precipitation crosses southwest Kansas. NAM and GFS
however differ slightly on timing with the GFS more progressive
than the NAM. They also differ slightly on a shallow warm layer in
the 875 to 800mb layer which if the warmer NAM is more correct
would support a chance for sleet at times. At this time will
continue to mention of mix of sleet and snow given uncertainty of
this warm layer and based on the latest RAP have trended more
towards progressive GFS on timing of the steadier precipitation.
Given the more progressive solution the precipitation will end
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Clouds will also
begin to decrease from northwest to southeast late in the day
based subsidence and drier air developing in the wake of an upper
level trough as it crosses western Kansas between 18z Wednesday
and 00z Thursday. With some breaks of sun possible by late day in
far western/west Central Kansas will trend towards the warmer
MET/MAV guidance for highs while further east favor the cooler NAM
2 meter temps. Given how progressive this system is expected today
will continue to favor snowfall amounts of 1 inch or less,
however if a band of the steadier precipitation persists longer in
one area, like what the NAM suggests between 18z and 21z, then a few
locations may have totals of up to 2 inches. Still given this snow
amounts will be below advisory criteria.

Tonight a surface ridge axis will cross south central Kansas as
surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies.
Southwest winds developing across much of western Kansas early
tonight may limit how cold temperatures will be early Thursday
morning so will continue to favor temperatures bottoming in the 20
to 25 degree range across far western and West central Kansas.
Further east, near the surface ridge axis, will lower temperatures
back to around 15 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

The GFS/GEM/UKMET were generally accepted over the ECMWF in regards
to the next upper level system to affect western Kansas Friday and
Saturday. The associated cold front will progress through western Kansas
Friday, with upper level energy hanging back over the southern Rockies
Friday night, and then slowly progressing southeastward in positively
tiled fashion by Saturday. This is certainly far from an ideal
prescription for a significant precipitation event given the lack of
low level baroclinic development, with post frontal cold advection
dominating. There is a small chance of rain late Friday and Friday
evening before a changeover to snow occurs later Friday night.
Some accumulation of snow is possible by midday Saturday before the
precipitation shuts off.

After the aforementioned upper level system moves southward into
Texas on Sunday, upper level ridging will develop over the central
high plains, with lee trough formation over the high plains. This
will lead to southwesterly boundary layer winds and warmer
temperatures for Sunday into Monday. Temperatures may even reach
70 on Monday.

Yet another upper level system will approach the central and southern
high plains by Tuesday or Tuesday night, along with cooler air and
another chance of rain or snow in the wake of the surface cold front.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

Mid level moisture will continue increase across western Kansas
overnight as an upper level trough crosses Colorado and New
Mexico. A cold front, located across north central/northwest Kansas at
4z, will move across southwest Kansas between 6z and 12z. As this
front passes a northwest wind at around 15kts will develop. In
addition, low level moisture will increase favoring MVFR cigs
developing between 09z and 12z. IFR cigs and vsbys are then
expected between 12z and 21z. A period of Light snow will be
possible with the IFR conditions late morning and early afternoon
with snow accumulations at this time expected to be one inch or
less. Slightly higher amounts will be possible near the GCK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  19  57  35 /  70   0   0   0
GCK  35  23  63  35 /  70   0   0   0
EHA  40  28  66  40 /  50   0   0   0
LBL  38  23  63  38 /  60   0   0   0
HYS  32  19  56  33 /  70   0   0   0
P28  34  14  52  34 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...Burgert







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 204 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2014

...Updated synopsis and short term discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

At 00z Wednesday a 80kt to 100kt 300mb jet extended from central
California into southeastern Arizona. A 500mb trough was located
near the left exit region of this upper jet, and extended from
Colorado into the four corners region. East of this upper level
trough a 700mb trough was located over northeast New Mexico and
eastern Colorado. A surface cold front extended from southeast
Nebraska into northwest Colorado. An area of warm 850mb
temperatures were present south of this cold front range from +13
at Amarillo to +11c at Dodge City.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Enhanced radar returns from the Mosaic radar loop over northeast
Colorado earlier this morning related well to an area of 700mb
frontogenesis at 06z from the the latest RAP, NAM and GFS. Each
Model move this area of frontogenesis across southwest Kansas
between 12z and 21z. In addition the model soundings today
suggested the precipitation type will be mainly snow as this band
of steadier precipitation crosses southwest Kansas. NAM and GFS
however differ slightly on timing with the GFS more progressive
than the NAM. They also differ slightly on a shallow warm layer in
the 875 to 800mb layer which if the warmer NAM is more correct
would support a chance for sleet at times. At this time will
continue to mention of mix of sleet and snow given uncertainty of
this warm layer and based on the latest RAP have trended more
towards progressive GFS on timing of the steadier precipitation.
Given the more progressive solution the precipitation will end
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Clouds will also
begin to decrease from northwest to southeast late in the day
based subsidence and drier air developing in the wake of an upper
level trough as it crosses western Kansas between 18z Wednesday
and 00z Thursday. With some breaks of sun possible by late day in
far western/west Central Kansas will trend towards the warmer
MET/MAV guidance for highs while further east favor the cooler NAM
2 meter temps. Given how progressive this system is expected today
will continue to favor snowfall amounts of 1 inch or less,
however if a band of the steadier precipitation persists longer in
one area, like what the NAM suggests between 18z and 21z, then a few
locations may have totals of up to 2 inches. Still given this snow
amounts will be below advisory criteria.

Tonight a surface ridge axis will cross south central Kansas as
surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies.
Southwest winds developing across much of western Kansas early
tonight may limit how cold temperatures will be early Thursday
morning so will continue to favor temperatures bottoming in the 20
to 25 degree range across far western and West central Kansas.
Further east, near the surface ridge axis, will lower temperatures
back to around 15 degrees.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

The extended forecast period, starting with Wednesday night, will
see a short wave exiting to the east of our forecast area.  I will
leave just a slender section of Pratt and Barber Counties for light
snow Wednesday night.  Then on Thursday, as fresh snow cover will be
laid down, but plentiful sunshine will shine down and warm up
southwest Kansas to near 50F degrees in the Stafford to Barber
Counties areas, but zoom temperatures up into the mid 60s in our
west with little snow cover to work with.  South winds will help
keep temperatures somewhat elevated Thursday night in the middle 30s
to lower 40s.  I considered lowering mins a bit over the snow areas
of my eastern CWA, but clouds and south winds can keep the surface
temperatures higher vs lower.  Friday will be partly sunny with
winds becoming north after a cold front passes south, with north
afternoon winds at 15 to 20 mph and gusty.  An upper level trough
will approach from the west late Friday, and will lead to a chance
of rain or snow early Friday night, then a chance of snow for all
the area after midnight Friday night.  I do not see too much
snowfall with this system, but up to an inch in spots.  Lows Friday
night should end up in the mid 20s to around 30F degrees.

On Saturday, the upper flow will return from the west to northwest,
and begin a slow warm up.  Saturday will be in the upper 30s to
lower 40s, then Sunday should warm nicely in to the lower to upper
50s, followed by Monday with highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
A weak cold front appears to be crossing north to south on Tuesday
per the ECMWF model, bringing highs in the middle 50s to near 60F.
Low temperatures from Saturday morning through Tuesday morning will
be warming from the middle 20s Sat and Sun, to the middle 30s to
around 40F degrees by Tuesday morning.

A note about the 8 to 14 outlook, upon further looking into the long
range models, this period should be characteristic with below normal
temperatures and maybe near normal precipitation.  Maximum
temperatures should be near normal, but minimum temperatures below
normal.  Another upper wave may cross the plains late Wednesday into
Friday, giving a slight chance for some rain or snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

Mid level moisture will continue increase across western Kansas
overnight as an upper level trough crosses Colorado and New
Mexico. A cold front, located across north central/northwest Kansas at
4z, will move across southwest Kansas between 6z and 12z. As this
front passes a northwest wind at around 15kts will develop. In
addition, low level moisture will increase favoring MVFR cigs
developing between 09z and 12z. IFR cigs and vsbys are then
expected between 12z and 21z. A period of Light snow will be
possible with the IFR conditions late morning and early afternoon
with snow accumulations at this time expected to be one inch or
less. Slightly higher amounts will be possible near the GCK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  32  19  57  35 /  80   0   0   0
GCK  34  23  63  35 /  70   0   0   0
EHA  39  28  66  40 /  50   0   0   0
LBL  37  23  63  38 /  60   0   0   0
HYS  31  19  56  33 /  50   0   0   0
P28  33  14  52  34 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Burgert







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1201 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

ALTHOUGH LIGHT RETURNS ARE INDICATED BY RADAR JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE ACTUALLY REPORTING
PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME SATURATING...
BUT THE LATEST NAM/RAP CONTINUE THE TREND OF MOISTENING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. SO...ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY. LATEST NAM RAOBS SHOW A WARM LAYER OFF THE
SURFACE...SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF MIXED PHASE PRECIPITATION
UNTIL 15Z OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO WITH WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST CWA...SEPARATING AREA OF TEMPS IN THE
LOW 60S FROM AREA OF UPPER 30S.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LARGE AREA
OF CIRRUS APPARENTLY HAVING ONLY SMALL IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SURGE TO THE SOUTH BRINGING MUCH COLDER
AIR TO THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS A PERIOD OF STRONG ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL FROPA...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN
EXCESS OF 100 MB LEAD ME TO THINK THAT APART FROM DEVELOPING A LOW
STRATUS DECK AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG...PRECIPITATION WILL BE
UNLIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE 5Z. STRONG H65 TO H6 FRONTAL ZONE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH AFTER 06Z. ALTHOUGH THIS DOES APPEAR TO
BE SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING PER DIV
Q/PV FIELDS...JET STREAK TO THE NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY AID
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE FORCED ASCENT. EPV* AROUND H6 INDICATES
INSTABILITY MAY BE RELEASED WITH ANY FRONTAL CIRCULATION THAT
DEVELOPS...SO EVEN THOUGH DURATION WILL BE RATHER BRIEF SNOWFALL
RATES MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH IN SOME AREAS. FRONTAL ZONE/SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE QUICK TO DEPART THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO END QUICKLY AFTER 14Z. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH A FEW AREAS AROUND 2 OR
3 INCHES WHEREVER STRONG FRONTAL BAND DEVELOPS.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A CONCERN AS WARM LAYER WILL BE PRESENT
INITIALLY BEFORE WET BULB PROCESSES/CAA ADVECTION CREATE A PROFILE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW. A BRIEF WINDOW OF RAIN/IP/FZRA MAY OCCUR
BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...DO NOT THINK THIS WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT DUE TO BRIEF DURATION. AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS...LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD LAYER MAY BRING A PERIOD OF -FZDZ
BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO TOO LOW
TO CONSIDER ANY KIND OF WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW WILL END EARLY SATURDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS
TO THE EAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON REPRESENTATION OF THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THAT
PERIOD. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN A RATHER STRONG KICKER BEHIND THE
INITIAL WAVE...BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH KICKER. CANNOT JUSTIFY
MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. IT SHOULD HOWEVER COOL
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 907 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TAFS IS STILL THE TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND
MVFR CEILINGS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DID NOT MATERIALIZE FOR THE
EARLIER TAF ISSUANCE AS MODELS WERE DEPICTING. THEREFORE...TRUSTING
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE IS A BIT HARD AT THIS POINT.
ALSO...THE UPDATED RAP AND NAM HAVE BEEN REMOVING PRECIPITATION
AND DELAYING ITS ONSET. GLANCED AT THE HRRR TO SEE IF IT HAD THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW HANDLED FAIRLY WELL. WENT AHEAD AND WENT
WITH THIS MODEL FOR NOW SINCE OTHER MODELS STILL INDICATE ENHANCED
LIFT OVER THE AREA DURING THE TIMES THE HRRR BROKE OUT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO KGLD
AND KMCK AROUND 09Z WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING FOR KMCK AT 11Z AND
KGLD AT 12Z. LEFT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT MVFR INSTEAD OF
IFR...WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS MATERIALIZES AND AMENDMENTS WILL
BE MADE WHEN NECESSARY. THIS IS STILL A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AROUND 16Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 23Z UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...ALW





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 921 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

ALTHOUGH LIGHT RETURNS ARE INDICATED BY RADAR JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE ACTUALLY REPORTING
PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME SATURATING...
BUT THE LATEST NAM/RAP CONTINUE THE TREND OF MOISTENING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. SO...ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY. LATEST NAM RAOBS SHOW A WARM LAYER OFF THE
SURFACE...SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF MIXED PHASE PRECIPITATION
UNTIL 15Z OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO WITH WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST CWA...SEPARATING AREA OF TEMPS IN THE
LOW 60S FROM AREA OF UPPER 30S.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LARGE AREA
OF CIRRUS APPARENTLY HAVING ONLY SMALL IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SURGE TO THE SOUTH BRINGING MUCH COLDER
AIR TO THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS A PERIOD OF STRONG ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL FROPA...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN
EXCESS OF 100 MB LEAD ME TO THINK THAT APART FROM DEVELOPING A LOW
STRATUS DECK AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG...PRECIPITATION WILL BE
UNLIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE 5Z. STRONG H65 TO H6 FRONTAL ZONE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH AFTER 06Z. ALTHOUGH THIS DOES APPEAR TO
BE SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING PER DIV
Q/PV FIELDS...JET STREAK TO THE NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY AID
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE FORCED ASCENT. EPV* AROUND H6 INDICATES
INSTABILITY MAY BE RELEASED WITH ANY FRONTAL CIRCULATION THAT
DEVELOPS...SO EVEN THOUGH DURATION WILL BE RATHER BRIEF SNOWFALL
RATES MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH IN SOME AREAS. FRONTAL ZONE/SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE QUICK TO DEPART THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO END QUICKLY AFTER 14Z. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH A FEW AREAS AROUND 2 OR
3 INCHES WHEREVER STRONG FRONTAL BAND DEVELOPS.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A CONCERN AS WARM LAYER WILL BE PRESENT
INITIALLY BEFORE WET BULB PROCESSES/CAA ADVECTION CREATE A PROFILE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW. A BRIEF WINDOW OF RAIN/IP/FZRA MAY OCCUR
BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...DO NOT THINK THIS WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT DUE TO BRIEF DURATION. AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS...LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD LAYER MAY BRING A PERIOD OF -FZDZ
BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO TOO LOW
TO CONSIDER ANY KIND OF WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH BY MIDDAY AND GOOD WAA ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT MILD DAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE 60S (POSSIBLY AROUND 70F). NOT SURE WHAT HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST OR POTENTIAL (LIGHT) SNOW PACK
WILL HAVE...SO DIDNT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER GREAT
BASIN/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT REGION DURING THESE
PERIOD AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AND PRECIP
CHANCES ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT...ENDING SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON ADVERTISING GOOD FORCING/MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAKER FORCING EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF OUR CWA. STAYED WITH TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT LIKELY
POPS IN EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS IN KS/NE.
SHOULD MAINLY BE A RAIN-SNOW CHANGE OVER...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLIMATOLOGICAL SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS GIVE US AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PART OF
CWA. NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE A
RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY...RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATION OF AIR MASS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
(HIGHS 55-66F) ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. A LITTLE MORE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE BY
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE WESTERN US/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH COULD BRING COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO
REGION. STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND 50-55F FOR HIGHS (USING
CONSENSUS). NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON TUESDAY FORECAST BASED ON
SPREAD IN MODELS AT THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 907 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TAFS IS STILL THE TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW AND
MVFR CEILINGS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DID NOT MATERIALIZE FOR THE
EARLIER TAF ISSUANCE AS MODELS WERE DEPICTING. THEREFORE...TRUSTING
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE IS A BIT HARD AT THIS POINT.
ALSO...THE UPDATED RAP AND NAM HAVE BEEN REMOVING PRECIPITATION
AND DELAYING ITS ONSET. GLANCED AT THE HRRR TO SEE IF IT HAD THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW HANDLED FAIRLY WELL. WENT AHEAD AND WENT
WITH THIS MODEL FOR NOW SINCE OTHER MODELS STILL INDICATE ENHANCED
LIFT OVER THE AREA DURING THE TIMES THE HRRR BROKE OUT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO KGLD
AND KMCK AROUND 09Z WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING FOR KMCK AT 11Z AND
KGLD AT 12Z. LEFT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT MVFR INSTEAD OF
IFR...WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS MATERIALIZES AND AMENDMENTS WILL
BE MADE WHEN NECESSARY. THIS IS STILL A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AROUND 16Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 23Z UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...ALW







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 1125 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

COMPLETED AN UPDATE OF GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
STRONGER BANDS OF -SN JUST N OF THE MN/IA BORDER THAT HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY PERSISTENT SINCE APPROXIMATELY 00Z. THIS BATCH OF HEAVIER
-SN FROM REDWOOD COUNTY THRU FREEBORN COUNTY HAS SHOWN STRONG DBZ
WHICH HAS CORRELATED TO SPOTTER REPORTS OF 3-5 INCHES ALREADY.
THIS BAND ALSO HAS MATCHED UP NICELY WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND HOPWRF...SO HAVE EXPANDED W AND N THE WINTER WX
ADVY AND ALSO NUDGED UP SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE 3-6 INCH RANGE. THE
NRN EDGE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY...REMAINING S OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO...
AND AM NOT EXPECTING A SHIFT N OF THE SNOWFALL FROM WHERE IT
CURRENTLY DELINEATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE SLOWLY COME TOGETHER THIS AFTN FOR A QUICK 2
TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF A STRONG SHRTWV & WAA LAYER /92-70H/ MOVING THRU SOUTHERN MN
THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADAR WAS DEPICTING A LARGE AREA OF HIGHER
RETURNS ACROSS SD/ND MOVING SE EARLY THIS AFTN...THE CONTINUED DRY
FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL SOUTH OF I-94. IT MAY EVEN TAKE A FEW HRS BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES ENOUGH FOR THE SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND IN EC
MN. OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HOPWRF AND RAP...THERE REMAINS A
VERY SHARP BOUNDARY BETWEEN NO SNOWFALL...AND LOCALLY 1 TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE DRIER AIR
TO HOLD THE NE 1/3 OF MPX CWA DRY...WITH THE BULK OF THE QPF SOUTH
OF NEW ULM TO OWATONNA. I DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO SPECIFIC ON
WHERE THE CUTOFF WOULD BE TO THE NE...BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE TWIN CITIES MAY ONLY GET FLURRIES...WITH ONE
TO TWO INCHES IN SCOTT/DAKOTA COUNTIES. AGAIN...THIS IS BASED ON
THE CURRENT RUN OF BOTH THE HOPWRF/RAP. ANY DEVIATION TO THE
STRONGER FORCING ALONG THE 92-70H FRONTOGENETIC ZONE THIS
EVENING...WILL CAUSE MORE OR LESS SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WC
WI. OTHERWISE...THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY FAST AND WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION BY 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

THE WELL-ADVERTISED MODERATING TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND EVEN WITH THE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF CHANCE
POPS...THE NEXT 7 DAYS LOOKS FAIRLY DRY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A
+40 DAY LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WITH A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION THAT KICKS IN SUNDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...IT MIGHT BE 40
DEGREES AT SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT. THESE ARE THINGS THAT WILL
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. FRIDAY MORNING WILL ALSO BE QUITE MILD
AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO A NON-DIURNAL TREND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WIDESPREAD >32 TEMPS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THAT BEGS THE
QUESTION WHAT KIND (IF ANY) PRECIP FALLS FROM THE SKY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE QPF IS LIGHT AND THE FORCING FAVORS
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...A TREND THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 3-4 MODEL CYCLES. THE NAM GENERALLY HAS A
SNOW -> BREAK -> FREEZING RAIN -> RAIN -> SNOW TREND DURING THIS
TIME. MEANWHILE...THE GFS TREND MORE LIKE SNOW -> SLEET ->
FREEZING RAIN -> SNOW. PRETTY MESSY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE TREND
VARYING SPATIAL AND LACKING MODEL CYCLE CONSISTENCY. WE STAYED
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SNOW...BUT ARX/DMX NWS OFFICES MIGHT HAVE THE
BETTER IDEA CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A WHILE ON
FRIDAY. IT COULD JUST AS EASY BE NEARLY DRY AND SIMPLY BE
OVERCAST. LOW CONFIDENCE P-TYPE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT WE
ARE CONFIDENT IN A LOW-TO-NO QPF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

ASIDE FROM KRWF...ALL SITES TO REMAIN AS VFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF WED. BKN-OVC SKIES WILL
PREVAIL...WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS INTO MVFR RANGE FOR THE NRN
SITES /KAXN-KSTC/ TMRW AFTN. FOR KRWF...STILL HAVING SOLID LGT-MOD
SNOW WHICH LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE NEXT 2-3 HRS...
PRODUCING VFR-IFR CONDS. EVEN AS THE -SN ENDS...VSBY WILL
CERTAINLY IMPROVE BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN WITHIN MVFR-IFR FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WED. WUBDS SLOWLY SHIFT FROM ENE TO SE DURG THE DAY TMRW
AND APPROACH SSE BY TMRW EVE. SPEEDS REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE
THRU TMRW AFTN...THEN INCRS TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE TMRW EVE.

KMSP...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD...BUT THE -SN
IS AWFULLY CLOSE TO THE S. NOT EXPECTING IT TO MOVE N AND CAUSE
ANY ISSUES FOR KMSP...BUT WOULD STILL LEAVE A SMALL CHC THRU 09Z
THAT SOME 6SM OR AT WORST 5SM -SN MAY MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...MIDLVL CIGS WILL PREVAIL WITH INSIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS S 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS...BECOMING N.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS...BECOMING W.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ065-067-
     073>077-082>085-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JPC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

 1050 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. A COUPLE
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WITH THE FOCUS BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NE AND IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WITH BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE LOW DEEPENING
OVER NE NM. WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARP;Y BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT
THAT WILL REACH FAR NE NM SHORTLY AND MOVE RAPIDLY S LATE
TONIGHT...REACHING ROW SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR AND MTN TOP
OBSCD EXPECTED FOR A FEW HRS BEHIND THE FRONT. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...915 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014...
.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NM THIS EVENING...
WITH SOME DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NW VIA WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO THIN/DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NM. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S AFTER SOME SHOWERS PASSED THRU...AND
UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S AT THE LOWEST. THUS...HAVE
RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM.

OTHERWISE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO PLOW THROUGH
THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGESTS THAT WIND ADVISORY TYPE SPEEDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW HOURS AROUND CLAYTON. GIVEN THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THESE
WINDS PLUS WINDS ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
COLORADO...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORIES ATTM.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THICK CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TODAY WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER IN THE EAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS
IT HAS BEEN. THURSDAY WILL SEE A STRONG WARMING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SLIDES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND. MORE RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING UPPER WAVE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS FAST AND MOISTURE RICH FLOW EJECTS EAST
OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS STARTED TRENDING STRONGER WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON THE QPF SIDE OF THINGS LAST NIGHT AND THAT TREND
CONTINUES. THE LATEST HRRR AND 18Z NAM ARE INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT LOW END PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NM
THIS EVENING. EVEN THE ABQ AND SAF METRO AREA ARE PROGGED TO PICK
UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS. HAVE TRENDED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN FOR THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF CHANCE IN SURROUNDING
LOWER ELEVATIONS. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY AS WELL ABOVE
7500 FEET. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PLUNGING INTO THE NE PLAINS
TONIGHT WILL FOCUS ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIP ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER. WINDS WILL ALSO BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED ADVISORY
CRITERIA IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HIGHLIGHTS DUE TO SHORT DURATION.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER OUT EAST AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
FILTER THROUGH THE AREA. A SUNNIER DAY THAN TODAY IS ON TAP MOST
AREAS HOWEVER STILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND
WINDS MIXING OVER THE AREA. THE EAST WILL PUSH LOW TO MID 70S ONCE
AGAIN.

EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A STORM SYSTEM DIVING SE OUT THE PACIFIC NW INTO NM FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAIN THE BIG
QUESTION WITH THIS EVENT. A DEEP COLD POOL OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
MAY ALLOW FOR GAP WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST ON CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO DELIVER THE BEST PRECIP
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE AS FAR WEST AS THE
DIVIDE IS POSSIBLE. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP WITH THIS SYSTEM SO DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD AT WORK.
DAYTIME INSTABILITY BENEATH THE COLD CORE WILL OFFER THE BEST SHOT
OF PRECIP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME STORMS SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED WIND FORECAST. INCREASED SPEEDS TO
MATCH BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON FRIDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE
COMING IN A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF THE FLOW
ALOFT/MIXING ON THAT DAY. ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT/S
COLD FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
PRETTY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND WOULD COINCIDE WITH A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE ALSO
INCREASED WITH THE PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF AND
NAM ARE ALL BULLISH FOR AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM
THIS QUICK HITTING SYSTEM ACROSS THE JEMEZ/LOWER SAN JUAN MTNS.
SUSPECT THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF THE SANDIAS
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL GET SOME MEASURABLE AS WELL. UNSURE
HOW MUCH WETTING...GREATER THAN TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT CANT RULE IT
OUT.

AS MENTIONED...PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL EFFECTS WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST QUARTER. A
SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTHWARD. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE QUITE STRONG ALONG THIS FRONTAL PUSH BUT THE FURTHER WEST YOU
GET...LESS WIND. WEDNESDAY SPEEDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MUCH WEAKER. VENTILATION RATES
WILL LOWER ACROSS MOST WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS. A STRONGER MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL TRIED TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AND COULD
AFFECT FAR WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL AS A RESULT. SHARPLY ACROSS
SOME AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP AREAWIDE AND EXPECTING ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MODERATE WIND FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. BELOW 15 PCT RH
VALUES SHOW UP ACROSS MANY OF THE LOWLAND AREAS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH LOWER RH WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA
ROSA BUT SHOULD BE LOCALIZED IN NATURE. LOOKING FOR A FEW STRONGER
BREEZES ACROSS THE HIGHER CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL.

THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL TAKE AIM ON THE AREA FRIDAY. WINDS
ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND COMBINE WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
BREEZINESS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO ADOPTED THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NAM SOLUTION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE AN INTERESTING WEATHER
DAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OR HIGHER DEWPOINTS FLOWING IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE BACK DOOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. LOOKING AT MID/UPPER
TEEN RH VALUES ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PLAINS. NOT LOOKING AT ANY CRITICAL CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME EVEN.

MODELS STILL SHOW A STRENGTHENING TROUGH WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR A
WETTING PRECIPITATION EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT AS THE PREVIOUS WEEKEND ONE. THE COLD FRONTAL PUSH
ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HELP CONCENTRATE SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION
THERE. ALSO EXPECT SOME POCKETS ACROSS THE NORTH AND PERHAPS EVEN
SOUTHWEST AREAS. EITHER WAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER. CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHTNING
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. SNOW LEVELS ALSO APPEAR TO BE LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
PASSAGE AND SNOW MELT WOULD HELP MOISTEN THE FUELS A BIT MORE.

A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS TO PUSH OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. SUSPECT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COME IN A LITTLE HIGHER
AS WE GET NEARER TO THAT PERIOD BECAUSE MIXING WILL BE LOWER AND
THUS KEEP SFC DEWPOINTS FROM GETTING TOO LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE ISNT
THE BEST FOR THE RH FORECAST ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
THE PACIFIC LOW CAN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST.

50

&&

&&

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

 915 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NM THIS EVENING...
WITH SOME DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NW VIA WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO THIN/DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NM. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S AFTER SOME SHOWERS PASSED THRU...AND
UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S AT THE LOWEST. THUS...HAVE
RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM.

OTHERWISE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO PLOW THROUGH
THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGESTS THAT WIND ADVISORY TYPE SPEEDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW HOURS AROUND CLAYTON. GIVEN THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THESE
WINDS PLUS WINDS ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG CURRENTLY IN EASTERN
COLORADO...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORIES ATTM.

UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...449 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
VCSH AT GUP/AEG/ABQ/SAF AND LVS...AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE SAME
SITES EXCEPT LVS. WAVE IMPACTING FMN/GUP NOW AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVE...THEN TRANSITION OVER CENTRAL SITES THIS EVENING
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN FINISH ITS SWEEP OF THE AREA BTWN 12Z
TO 15Z WED ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WAVE
PASSAGE AND WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL REACH FAR NE NM AROUND 06Z AND MOVE RAPIDLY S
LATE TONIGHT...REACHING ROW SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR AND MTN
TOP OBSCD IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HRS DURING THE WAVE PASSAGE. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THICK CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TODAY WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER IN THE EAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS
IT HAS BEEN. THURSDAY WILL SEE A STRONG WARMING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SLIDES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND. MORE RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING UPPER WAVE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS FAST AND MOISTURE RICH FLOW EJECTS EAST
OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS STARTED TRENDING STRONGER WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON THE QPF SIDE OF THINGS LAST NIGHT AND THAT TREND
CONTINUES. THE LATEST HRRR AND 18Z NAM ARE INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT LOW END PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NM
THIS EVENING. EVEN THE ABQ AND SAF METRO AREA ARE PROGGED TO PICK
UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS. HAVE TRENDED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN FOR THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF CHANCE IN SURROUNDING
LOWER ELEVATIONS. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY AS WELL ABOVE
7500 FEET. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PLUNGING INTO THE NE PLAINS
TONIGHT WILL FOCUS ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIP ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER. WINDS WILL ALSO BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED ADVISORY
CRITERIA IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HIGHLIGHTS DUE TO SHORT DURATION.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER OUT EAST AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
FILTER THROUGH THE AREA. A SUNNIER DAY THAN TODAY IS ON TAP MOST
AREAS HOWEVER STILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND
WINDS MIXING OVER THE AREA. THE EAST WILL PUSH LOW TO MID 70S ONCE
AGAIN.

EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A STORM SYSTEM DIVING SE OUT THE PACIFIC NW INTO NM FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAIN THE BIG
QUESTION WITH THIS EVENT. A DEEP COLD POOL OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
MAY ALLOW FOR GAP WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST ON CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO DELIVER THE BEST PRECIP
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE AS FAR WEST AS THE
DIVIDE IS POSSIBLE. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP WITH THIS SYSTEM SO DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD AT WORK.
DAYTIME INSTABILITY BENEATH THE COLD CORE WILL OFFER THE BEST SHOT
OF PRECIP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME STORMS SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED WIND FORECAST. INCREASED SPEEDS TO
MATCH BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON FRIDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE
COMING IN A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF THE FLOW
ALOFT/MIXING ON THAT DAY. ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT/S
COLD FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
PRETTY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND WOULD COINCIDE WITH A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE ALSO
INCREASED WITH THE PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF AND
NAM ARE ALL BULLISH FOR AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM
THIS QUICK HITTING SYSTEM ACROSS THE JEMEZ/LOWER SAN JUAN MTNS.
SUSPECT THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF THE SANDIAS
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL GET SOME MEASURABLE AS WELL. UNSURE
HOW MUCH WETTING...GREATER THAN TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT CANT RULE IT
OUT.

AS MENTIONED...PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL EFFECTS WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST QUARTER. A
SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTHWARD. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE QUITE STRONG ALONG THIS FRONTAL PUSH BUT THE FURTHER WEST YOU
GET...LESS WIND. WEDNESDAY SPEEDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MUCH WEAKER. VENTILATION RATES
WILL LOWER ACROSS MOST WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS. A STRONGER MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL TRIED TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AND COULD
AFFECT FAR WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL AS A RESULT. SHARPLY ACROSS
SOME AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP AREAWIDE AND EXPECTING ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MODERATE WIND FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. BELOW 15 PCT RH
VALUES SHOW UP ACROSS MANY OF THE LOWLAND AREAS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH LOWER RH WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA
ROSA BUT SHOULD BE LOCALIZED IN NATURE. LOOKING FOR A FEW STRONGER
BREEZES ACROSS THE HIGHER CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL.

THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL TAKE AIM ON THE AREA FRIDAY. WINDS
ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND COMBINE WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
BREEZINESS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO ADOPTED THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NAM SOLUTION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE AN INTERESTING WEATHER
DAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OR HIGHER DEWPOINTS FLOWING IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE BACK DOOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. LOOKING AT MID/UPPER
TEEN RH VALUES ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PLAINS. NOT LOOKING AT ANY CRITICAL CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME EVEN.

MODELS STILL SHOW A STRENGTHENING TROUGH WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR A
WETTING PRECIPITATION EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT AS THE PREVIOUS WEEKEND ONE. THE COLD FRONTAL PUSH
ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HELP CONCENTRATE SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION
THERE. ALSO EXPECT SOME POCKETS ACROSS THE NORTH AND PERHAPS EVEN
SOUTHWEST AREAS. EITHER WAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER. CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHTNING
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. SNOW LEVELS ALSO APPEAR TO BE LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
PASSAGE AND SNOW MELT WOULD HELP MOISTEN THE FUELS A BIT MORE.

A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS TO PUSH OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. SUSPECT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COME IN A LITTLE HIGHER
AS WE GET NEARER TO THAT PERIOD BECAUSE MIXING WILL BE LOWER AND
THUS KEEP SFC DEWPOINTS FROM GETTING TOO LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE ISNT
THE BEST FOR THE RH FORECAST ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
THE PACIFIC LOW CAN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST.

50

&&

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 320 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT... BRINGING CHILLY TEMPERATURES BACK FOR THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST... BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

PRECIP CHANCES WILL PERSIST TODAY IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA... BUT
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT AND INCONSEQUENTIAL. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS
A WEAK RESIDUAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM NC NE OVER THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA... RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH AND NE SURFACE WINDS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
OUTER BANKS IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA... WHICH MODELS INDICATE WILL SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL GA
ACROSS UPSTATE/CENTRAL SC INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NC... AND HAS BEEN
SPREADING SLOWLY NE IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO BE
LARGELY SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE 150+ KT JET FROM WV OUT OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ALL GENERALLY SHOW THIS LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CWA TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER AS TO
THE QPF AND NORTHWARD EXTENT. BASED ON THE CURRENT LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSION (AROUND 15 DEG)... RAP MODEL TRENDS... AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF SATURATION BELOW 800 MB EVEN AT FAY...
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A VERY LIGHT EVENT WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/SE OF ROCKINGHAM-FORT BRAGG-GOLDSBORO. WILL
KEEP POPS HERE IN THE 20-40% RANGE... HIGHEST IN SRN SAMPSON CO.
CURRENT SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS ALONG THE PATH OF THIS LIGHT PRECIP
ARE BELOW FREEZING... BUT THESE ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 32F BY
LATE MORNING. WILL START PRECIP OUT AS LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN... CHANGING TO JUST LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT ANY ACCRUAL TO BE
MINIMAL GIVEN THE LACK OF A SOURCE OF DRY AIR TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS
OF THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE... PLUS COVERAGE AND DURATION OF NON-RAIN
PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY SORT OF
CONCERN FOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS. HIGHS FROM 45 SOUTHEAST TO 53 IN THE
FAR WRN TRIAD REGION. THE HIGH-ROOTED LIFT WILL EXIT BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON... SO WILL END PRECIP CHANCES BY THIS TIME... WITH SKIES
TRENDING TO FAIR/PARTLY CLOUDY. A BACKDOOR FRONT NOW STRETCHING JUST
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH NC
TONIGHT... WITH THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE BEING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS AS THE 1040 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ESE
TO A POSITION OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE NOSING SOUTHWARD
INTO NC. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
28-30 NORTH TO 33-35 SOUTHEAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

...A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...

WEST COAST RIDGING WILL ALLOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN GOMEX BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A MILLER-A TYPE SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY.  UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MODELS
KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
MIDDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE CAROLINAS.  WHILE THE HIGH IS
PROGRESSIVE...THE HIGH DOES SHIFT INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION OVER NEW
ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  AS THE HIGH NOSES INTO
THE AREA...DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE PUSHES SOUTH TO THE
NC/SC BORDER.  DURING THIS TIME...PARTIAL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST
TO HOVER NEAR 1300/1550...WHICH SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...WITH A WARM NOSE AS
FAR WEST ARE THE TRIAD AND MORE PROMINENT THAN IN PAST MODEL RUNS.
WE EXPECT TO LOSE THE SUPPLY OF COLD AIR BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH RISE IN
SURFACE TEMPS TO MITIGATE ADDITIONAL ICING.

ONE OF THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTIES IS IN QPF.  THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK...WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON BEING EAST OF
CHARLESTON FRIDAY MORNING...AND STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION/LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP FOCUSED OVER EASTERN NC.
HOWEVER...MODELS HINT AT SOME MID-LEVEL FGEN BACK TO THE
WEST...WHERE MODELS HAVE VARIED TREMENDOUSLY WITH QPF FROM RUN TO
RUN...WITH THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF GOING FROM AROUND AN INCH
OVER WESTERN NC TO NEARLY NOTHING...BACK TO AN INCH AGAIN ON THE
MOST RECENT RUN.

THE BOTTOM LINE AT THIS POINT IS THAT WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX...WITH LESSER
CHANCES CLOSER TO THE TRIANGLE AND POINTS EAST.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE AND POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS IS STILL LOW
GIVEN SOME OF THE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACK
AND WESTERN EXTENT/STRENGTHEN OF THE WARM NOSE.

CHILLY HIGHS IN THE 40S ON THURSDAY WILL BE SENSITIVE TO HOW QUICKLY
PRECIP SPREADS INTO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING INTO THE 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT...HOVERING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE
GREATEST. GIVEN THAT MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH PRECIP EXITING
ON FRIDAY AND THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR DAMMING AIRMASS WILL HAVE TO BE
ERODED...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AGAIN. OW FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL PERIOD WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND NO LARGE
DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL TEMPS... BUT TURNING WARMER.

FOR SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKS NE WELL
OFF THE NE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH DRY LOW-MID LEVEL AIR. A
WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS... BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
FORECAST THICKNESSES NEAR NORMAL AND MODIFYING SUPPORT TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
NORTHEAST STATES SUNDAY WILL PUSH A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NC... ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THIS WAVE`S AMPLITUDE
WITH THE FASTER/WEAKER ECMWF KEEPING IT TO OUR NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE THE SLOWER/STRONGER GFS PUSHES IT TO OUR SOUTH (RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPS SUN/SUN NIGHT). SUCH DETAILS ARE UNRESOLVABLE AT THIS
RANGE SO WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE... WITH SUNDAY TEMPS SIMILAR TO
SAT BUT A BIT COOLER SUN NIGHT AS COMPARED TO SAT NIGHT.

FOR MON-TUE: TROUGHING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER NM/OK/TX INTO NRN
MEX OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OUT OVER THE NW GULF EARLY IN
THE WEEK... WHILE THE LARGELY FLAT AND WNW MID LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH
OF THE CONUS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER RATHER TRANQUIL WITH ONLY WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHING AND A DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL
AS THICKNESSES RISE. GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM WEDNESDAY...

GOING FROM THE THE BEST TO WORST AVIATION CONDITIONS: FIRST... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT INT/GSO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
(THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT). WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
INTERIOR MIDATLANTIC REGION DOWN THROUGH NC WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
TODAY... AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD NC LATE
TODAY... PUSHING SOUTH THIS EVENING. NEXT... AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND RESULTING MOIST ATLANTIC INFLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR CIGS (BUT VFR VSBYS) EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AT RDU BY 09Z-12Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS HOLDING THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT... BUT AT
RWI/FAY... MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH 00Z... FOLLOWED BY A
POSSIBILITY OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES SE AND ERN NC TODAY... BRIEF
VSBYS OF 5-6 SM IN LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT DOMINATE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NNE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY... INCREASING
TO AROUND 10-12 KTS THIS EVENING BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT AS IT
DROPS SOUTHWARD. WHILE LLWS CRITERIA ARE UNLIKELY TO BE MET
TONIGHT... AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A QUICK
INCREASE IN NE WINDS TO 25-30 KTS AT AROUND 1000-1500 FT AGL AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT FAY
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW... BUT IN GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THU AFTERNOON. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN GULF THU BEFORE TRACKING EAST THEN NE
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST... BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP (POTENTIALLY
WINTRY) AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC FROM 21Z THU THROUGH
FRI EVENING. STRONG NE WINDS (ESPECIALLY AT FAY/RWI) AND LLWS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THU THROUGH FRI DUE TO THE COASTAL STORM. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE FRI NIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH SUN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT WINDS. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 310 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT... BRINGING CHILLY TEMPERATURES BACK FOR THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST... BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

PRECIP CHANCES WILL PERSIST TODAY IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA... BUT
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT AND INCONSEQUENTIAL. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS
A WEAK RESIDUAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM NC NE OVER THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA... RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH AND NE SURFACE WINDS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
OUTER BANKS IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA... WHICH MODELS INDICATE WILL SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL GA
ACROSS UPSTATE/CENTRAL SC INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NC... AND HAS BEEN
SPREADING SLOWLY NE IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO BE
LARGELY SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE 150+ KT JET FROM WV OUT OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ALL GENERALLY SHOW THIS LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CWA TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER AS TO
THE QPF AND NORTHWARD EXTENT. BASED ON THE CURRENT LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSION (AROUND 15 DEG)... RAP MODEL TRENDS... AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF SATURATION BELOW 800 MB EVEN AT FAY...
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A VERY LIGHT EVENT WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/SE OF ROCKINGHAM-FORT BRAGG-GOLDSBORO. WILL
KEEP POPS HERE IN THE 20-40% RANGE... HIGHEST IN SRN SAMPSON CO.
CURRENT SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS ALONG THE PATH OF THIS LIGHT PRECIP
ARE BELOW FREEZING... BUT THESE ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 32F BY
LATE MORNING. WILL START PRECIP OUT AS LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN... CHANGING TO JUST LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT ANY ACCRUAL TO BE
MINIMAL GIVEN THE LACK OF A SOURCE OF DRY AIR TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS
OF THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE... PLUS COVERAGE AND DURATION OF NON-RAIN
PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY SORT OF
CONCERN FOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS. HIGHS FROM 45 SOUTHEAST TO 53 IN THE
FAR WRN TRIAD REGION. THE HIGH-ROOTED LIFT WILL EXIT BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON... SO WILL END PRECIP CHANCES BY THIS TIME... WITH SKIES
TRENDING TO FAIR/PARTLY CLOUDY. A BACKDOOR FRONT NOW STRETCHING JUST
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH NC
TONIGHT... WITH THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE BEING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS AS THE 1040 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ESE
TO A POSITION OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE NOSING SOUTHWARD
INTO NC. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
28-30 NORTH TO 33-35 SOUTHEAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

...A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...

WEST COAST RIDGING WILL ALLOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN GOMEX BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A MILLER-A TYPE SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY.  UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MODELS
KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
MIDDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE CAROLINAS.  WHILE THE HIGH IS
PROGRESSIVE...THE HIGH DOES SHIFT INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION OVER NEW
ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  AS THE HIGH NOSES INTO
THE AREA...DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE PUSHES SOUTH TO THE
NC/SC BORDER.  DURING THIS TIME...PARTIAL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST
TO HOVER NEAR 1300/1550...WHICH SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...WITH A WARM NOSE AS
FAR WEST ARE THE TRIAD AND MORE PROMINENT THAN IN PAST MODEL RUNS.
WE EXPECT TO LOSE THE SUPPLY OF COLD AIR BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH RISE IN
SURFACE TEMPS TO MITIGATE ADDITIONAL ICING.

ONE OF THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTIES IS IN QPF.  THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK...WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON BEING EAST OF
CHARLESTON FRIDAY MORNING...AND STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION/LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP FOCUSED OVER EASTERN NC.
HOWEVER...MODELS HINT AT SOME MID-LEVEL FGEN BACK TO THE
WEST...WHERE MODELS HAVE VARIED TREMENDOUSLY WITH QPF FROM RUN TO
RUN...WITH THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF GOING FROM AROUND AN INCH
OVER WESTERN NC TO NEARLY NOTHING...BACK TO AN INCH AGAIN ON THE
MOST RECENT RUN.

THE BOTTOM LINE AT THIS POINT IS THAT WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX...WITH LESSER
CHANCES CLOSER TO THE TRIANGLE AND POINTS EAST.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE AND POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS IS STILL LOW
GIVEN SOME OF THE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACK
AND WESTERN EXTENT/STRENGTHEN OF THE WARM NOSE.

CHILLY HIGHS IN THE 40S ON THURSDAY WILL BE SENSITIVE TO HOW QUICKLY
PRECIP SPREADS INTO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING INTO THE 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT...HOVERING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE
GREATEST. GIVEN THAT MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH PRECIP EXITING
ON FRIDAY AND THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR DAMMING AIRMASS WILL HAVE TO BE
ERODED...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AGAIN. OW FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM BY SATURDAY. MUCH MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING INTO THE 60S.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... IT APPEARS AN ALL RAIN EVENT WITH ANOTHER
SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE BY EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY. THE LACK OF A COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL PRECLUDE ANY
FROZEN PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM WEDNESDAY...

GOING FROM THE THE BEST TO WORST AVIATION CONDITIONS: FIRST... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT INT/GSO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
(THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT). WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
INTERIOR MIDATLANTIC REGION DOWN THROUGH NC WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
TODAY... AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD NC LATE
TODAY... PUSHING SOUTH THIS EVENING. NEXT... AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND RESULTING MOIST ATLANTIC INFLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR CIGS (BUT VFR VSBYS) EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AT RDU BY 09Z-12Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS HOLDING THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT... BUT AT
RWI/FAY... MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH 00Z... FOLLOWED BY A
POSSIBILITY OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES SE AND ERN NC TODAY... BRIEF
VSBYS OF 5-6 SM IN LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT DOMINATE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NNE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY... INCREASING
TO AROUND 10-12 KTS THIS EVENING BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT AS IT
DROPS SOUTHWARD. WHILE LLWS CRITERIA ARE UNLIKELY TO BE MET
TONIGHT... AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A QUICK
INCREASE IN NE WINDS TO 25-30 KTS AT AROUND 1000-1500 FT AGL AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT FAY
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW... BUT IN GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THU AFTERNOON. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN GULF THU BEFORE TRACKING EAST THEN NE
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST... BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP (POTENTIALLY
WINTRY) AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC FROM 21Z THU THROUGH
FRI EVENING. STRONG NE WINDS (ESPECIALLY AT FAY/RWI) AND LLWS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THU THROUGH FRI DUE TO THE COASTAL STORM. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE FRI NIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH SUN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT WINDS. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 220 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT... BRINGING CHILLY TEMPERATURES BACK FOR THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST... BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

PRECIP CHANCES WILL PERSIST TODAY IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA... BUT
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT AND INCONSEQUENTIAL. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS
A WEAK RESIDUAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM NC NE OVER THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA... RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH AND NE SURFACE WINDS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
OUTER BANKS IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA... WHICH MODELS INDICATE WILL SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL GA
ACROSS UPSTATE/CENTRAL SC INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NC... AND HAS BEEN
SPREADING SLOWLY NE IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO BE
LARGELY SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE 150+ KT JET FROM WV OUT OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ALL GENERALLY SHOW THIS LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CWA TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER AS TO
THE QPF AND NORTHWARD EXTENT. BASED ON THE CURRENT LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSION (AROUND 15 DEG)... RAP MODEL TRENDS... AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF SATURATION BELOW 800 MB EVEN AT FAY...
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A VERY LIGHT EVENT WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/SE OF ROCKINGHAM-FORT BRAGG-GOLDSBORO. WILL
KEEP POPS HERE IN THE 20-40% RANGE... HIGHEST IN SRN SAMPSON CO.
CURRENT SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS ALONG THE PATH OF THIS LIGHT PRECIP
ARE BELOW FREEZING... BUT THESE ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 32F BY
LATE MORNING. WILL START PRECIP OUT AS LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN... CHANGING TO JUST LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT ANY ACCRUAL TO BE
MINIMAL GIVEN THE LACK OF A SOURCE OF DRY AIR TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS
OF THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE... PLUS COVERAGE AND DURATION OF NON-RAIN
PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY SORT OF
CONCERN FOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS. HIGHS FROM 45 SOUTHEAST TO 53 IN THE
FAR WRN TRIAD REGION. THE HIGH-ROOTED LIFT WILL EXIT BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON... SO WILL END PRECIP CHANCES BY THIS TIME... WITH SKIES
TRENDING TO FAIR/PARTLY CLOUDY. A BACKDOOR FRONT NOW STRETCHING JUST
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH NC
TONIGHT... WITH THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE BEING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS AS THE 1040 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ESE
TO A POSITION OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE NOSING SOUTHWARD
INTO NC. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
28-30 NORTH TO 33-35 SOUTHEAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 PM TUESDAY...

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS CONFINED TO THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY... WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW INTO OUR NW PIEDMONT TRIAD. OTHERWISE... RAIN IS EXPECTED AT
THE CURRENT TIME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE MODEL
SPREAD. EVEN THOUGH MOSTLY RAIN IS CURRENTLY FAVORED... THE EXTENT
OF THE COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION COURTESY OF THE CURRENT AND
PROJECTED HIGH TO OUR NORTH SUPPLYING THE COLD AIR IS PROBLEMATIC.
IF MODELS TREND COLDER... WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE CURRENT
SET UP... MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW COULD BE EXPECTED INTO THE
PIEDMONT. STAY INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.

A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY 12Z/THURSDAY. AS THIS MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES PUSHING EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS/AL/TN...
MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER... MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO
BE HIGH... EVEN WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS APPEARS TO BE
RELATED TO THE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE
FEATURES ALOFT. AS THE MID/UPPER LOW APPROACHES OUR REGION... MODEL
SPREAD CONTINUES HIGH. THE 12Z NAM APPEARS ALONE IN DEEPENING THE
CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN GA AND SOUTHWESTERN NC...
WHILE THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND TRACKS THE MID LEVEL LOW
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS GA AND SOUTHERN SC. FOR THE COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE... THE 00Z/EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL MODEL WAS ON THE SLOW AND
WEST SIDE OF THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... SUGGESTING THIS MODEL IS TOO
SLOW WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. SINCE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD WITH
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM... WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL THIS CHANGES.
ANOTHER EXTREMELY IMPORTANT PLAYER FOR WINTER WEATHER WILL BE
STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF ANOTHER VERY COLD ARCTIC PARENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE AND DURING THIS EVENT. AS IT APPEARS NOW... THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH (1030+ MB) AND IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION (NEW ENGLAND) TO DELIVER COLD AIR INTO OUR
DAMMING REGION INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER... MOST MODELS HAVE THE HIGH
PROGRESSIVELY SHIFTING EAST WITH DIMINISHING CAA INTO OUR DAMMING
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION EVENT). IF THIS VERIFIES... WE WOULD HAVE TO
RELY ON THE MID/UPPER LOW TO SUPPLY ENOUGH OF ITS OWN COLD AIR TO
SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

THE BOTTOM LINE FOR RIGHT NOW... IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME
WET SNOW MIXED IN WITH RAIN THURSDAY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT.
HOWEVER... DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS LIKELY BEING MARGINAL IN
THE UPPER 30S AT ONSET... MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. EVAPORATIVE
COOLING COULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO WET SNOW AT TIMES THURSDAY
LATE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NW... BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL IN SUPPORTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. SURFACE WET
BULB FORECASTS NEAR 32 ARE INDICATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS POSSIBLY
DAVIDSON/RANDOLPH/ORANGE/GRANVILLE COUNTIES ON THE CURRENT COLDER
MODEL SOLUTIONS (EC/NAM)... WITH READINGS ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE.
THEREFORE... PREDOMINATELY RAIN IS EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF
GREENSBORO AND ROXBORO.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LOW APPROACHES... THE
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK JUST OFFSHORE THE SC/NC
COAST FRIDAY. ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THE
MID/UPPER LOW TRACK AND STRENGTH AT THAT TIME. CURRENT MODEL BLENDS
SUGGEST THAT THE ENOUGH ATLANTIC AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE STORM
TO ENHANCE A WARM NOSE ALOFT... ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NC.

THIS STRONGLY FAVORS THE BLUE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS...
WITH LIMITED CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THE THE LATEST 12Z/OPERATIONAL EC KEEPS CAD
INTO OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION ESSENTIALLY THROUGH THE EVENT...
WITH A SLOWER SURFACE LOW TRACKING OFFSHORE OF THE SC COAST FRIDAY.
THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPIATION REMAINS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
PIEDMONT TRIAD REGION WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION... WITH
SOME WET SNOW THREAT DEEPER INTO OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION.
HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION IS VERY LOW GIVEN
THE LATEST SPREAD IN THE 12Z MODELS.

MOST LIKELY SENSIBLE WEATHER... RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING/DEVELOPING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON... POSSIBLY HOLDING
OFF UNTIL LATE DAY IF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY. RAIN POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHS UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S NW
TO SE. PERIODS OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAIN MAY BE MIXED
WITH WET SNOW IN THE FAR NW. LOWS 33-42 NW TO SE. HIGHS FRIDAY 40S
NW AND 50S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM BY SATURDAY. MUCH MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING INTO THE 60S.

EARLY NEXT WEEK... IT APPEARS AN ALL RAIN EVENT WITH ANOTHER
SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE BY EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY. THE LACK OF A COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL PRECLUDE ANY
FROZEN PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM WEDNESDAY...

GOING FROM THE THE BEST TO WORST AVIATION CONDITIONS: FIRST... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT INT/GSO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
(THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT). WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
INTERIOR MIDATLANTIC REGION DOWN THROUGH NC WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
TODAY... AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD NC LATE
TODAY... PUSHING SOUTH THIS EVENING. NEXT... AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND RESULTING MOIST ATLANTIC INFLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR CIGS (BUT VFR VSBYS) EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AT RDU BY 09Z-12Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS HOLDING THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT... BUT AT
RWI/FAY... MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH 00Z... FOLLOWED BY A
POSSIBILITY OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES SE AND ERN NC TODAY... BRIEF
VSBYS OF 5-6 SM IN LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT DOMINATE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NNE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY... INCREASING
TO AROUND 10-12 KTS THIS EVENING BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT AS IT
DROPS SOUTHWARD. WHILE LLWS CRITERIA ARE UNLIKELY TO BE MET
TONIGHT... AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A QUICK
INCREASE IN NE WINDS TO 25-30 KTS AT AROUND 1000-1500 FT AGL AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT FAY
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW... BUT IN GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THU AFTERNOON. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN GULF THU BEFORE TRACKING EAST THEN NE
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST... BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP (POTENTIALLY
WINTRY) AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC FROM 21Z THU THROUGH
FRI EVENING. STRONG NE WINDS (ESPECIALLY AT FAY/RWI) AND LLWS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THU THROUGH FRI DUE TO THE COASTAL STORM. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE FRI NIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH SUN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT WINDS. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

 331 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY WEAK ECHO RETURNS ON RADAR BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY IS
ACTUALLY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AFTER THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING FRONT VERY WELL WHICH
LEADS TO DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TYPE IF ANY DOES FALL IN
OUR AREA. AM CURRENTLY FAVORING THE HRRR IN THE SHORT-TERM AS IT
SEEMS TO HANDLING THE FRONT THE BEST. GOING WITH THIS THOUGHT
PROCESS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE TODAY MIGHT ACTUALLY BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PAN OUT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER IF PRECIP DOES FALL
NORTH OF A CANADIAN TO DALHART LINE PRECIP TYPE COULD BE A BIT
TRICKIER. AM CURRENTLY GOING WITH A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN MIX AS
MODELS VARY ON HOW LARGE THE WARM NOSE WILL BE. ALL THAT BEING SAID
IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT...NO MATTER
WHAT FORM IT COMES DOWN IN. AFTER THE FRONT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WE WILL RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE ARE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH IT OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AGAIN
PRECIP TYPE MIGHT DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...IF IT MOVES
THROUGH AFTER WE HAVE WARMED UP ENOUGH THE AREA COULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING AND INITIAL PRECIP WOULD BE ALL RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THEN IT
COULD BE A WINTRY MIX THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT. MODELS STILL ARE NOT IN
GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW FAST AND DEEP TO MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA JUST AFTER THIS 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DECREASE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                41  28  68  38  68 /  10   0   0   5   5
BEAVER OK                  34  21  60  31  57 /  50   5   0   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              41  28  69  36  59 /  30   0   0   5  20
BORGER TX                  40  30  67  41  67 /  20   0   0   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              47  30  72  39  70 /  10   0   0   5  10
CANYON TX                  45  27  68  37  70 /   5   0   0   5   5
CLARENDON TX               41  28  64  37  70 /  20   5   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 43  24  70  35  66 /  10   0   0   5  10
GUYMON OK                  39  25  67  34  61 /  40   0   0   5  10
HEREFORD TX                46  26  69  38  70 /   5   0   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                36  20  59  33  60 /  50   5   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   36  27  61  39  61 /  20   5   0   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                37  23  59  33  66 /  50   5   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              40  25  60  34  70 /  60   5   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/19






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1142 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

SNOW BAND CONTINUES ACROSS THE ADVISORY ARE WITH THE LATEST HOURLY
TREND OF A SLIGHT SOUTHWEST SHIFT OF 1/2-1 COUNTY. CURRENT AMOUNTS
ARE IN THE 1 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE WITH SERN MN HAVING THE 2-2.5 INCH
AMOUNTS.

HAVE BEEN TORN AS AMOUNTS ARE GOING TO BE RIGHT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
OVER THE 6 INCH MARK IN AREAS ALONG THE BAND. LATEST RAP
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS HANDLING THE BAND QUITE WELL...MOVES A
FRONTOGENESIS MAX IN THE 600-700MB LAYER FROM SOUTHCENTRAL MN
WHERE MANY AREAS OF 30 PLUS DBZ ARE SEEN ON RADAR...DOWN THE BAND
AND INTO SERN MN BY ABOUT 06Z/12AM...THEN INTO SWRN WI BY
09Z/3AM. THE RAP ALSO DROPS OVER 0.50 INCHES OF LIQUID IN THE
BAND. CURRENT RATES ARE GOING TO KEEP UP AND INTENSIFY THROUGH
06-07Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. SO...LIKELY TO SEE SOME 5.5 TO 6.5
INCH AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS OF SERN MN INTO EXTREME NERN IA AND
INTO SWRN WI.

HAVE UPDATED THE SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS AND POSTED THOSE WITH AN AXIS
OF 5.5 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MAIN BAND. WITH LITTLE WIND AND MAINLY
A LATER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATION PERIOD...ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS BEYOND THE SNOW ARE MINIMAL. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO ALLOW
FOR A HIGH END WEATHER ADVISORY...MORE IN LINE WITH IMPACTS TO THE
PUBLIC. CERTAINLY...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS...BUT LIFE
THREATENING WARNING IMPACTS DONT SEEM TO BE AT HAND. NO CHANGES TO
HEADLINES WILL BE MADE. COORDINATED THIS WITH NWS MKX/MPX WHO ARE
ALSO AFFECTED BY THE BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

JUST A FEW WORDS ON THE INCOMING SNOW. STARTING TO SEE JUST IN THE
LAST MINUTES SOME NICE FILLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN 30 PLUS
DBZ BAND ACROSS SRN MN. THERE IS A NICE LAYER /200-300 MB/ OF
SLANTWISE AND WEAK UPRIGHT INSTABILITY /UPRIGHT IN IA MAINLY/
ABOVE THE FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS GOOD
FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS. LATEST TRENDS IN THE HRRR RUNS ARE
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE NORTHERN 3 INCH SNOW LINE...BUT
VERY CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY AREA.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE FROM A FORECAST STANDPOINT IS IF THE HIGHEST
ECHO BAND WILL BE SLIGHTLY TRANSITORY OR LOCK IN THE BROADER
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. IF IT LOCKS...WE WILL LIKELY SEE 6 INCH
AMOUNTS. OVERALL IT SEEMS A BROADER BAND /4-5 COUNTIES N-S...SIMILAR
TO ADVISORY/ WITH PULSING INTO THE 30 PLUS DBZ RANGE WITHIN THAT
WOULD OCCUR IN THE FRONTOGENESIS AREA. CURRENT RADAR HAS A VERY
NARROW 1-2 COUNTY WIDE BAND...WITH LITTLE SNOW NORTH AND SOUTH OF
IT...SO LOOKING FOR BROADENING FOR CURRENT FORECAST VERIFY.

WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED ON EVOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

CURRENTLY AS OF 21Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS FLOW...THE MOST NOTABLE
FEATURE IS A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS / WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS SUPPORTED SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES HAVE DROPPED TO 3/4 MILE WITH EVEN ONE 1/4 MILE OBSERVED AT
LINTON NORTH DAKOTA. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SNOW...STUCK
BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SEEN ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING.
THESE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INVERSION TRAPPING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR HAS ONLY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TEENS
TO LOW 20S. STILL...THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN IT HAS BEEN AS OF
LATE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS AROUND THE REGION SHOWED AMOUNTS
OF 0.1" OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AROUND 0.25" OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...0.3-0.4" WHERE THE SNOW WAS FALLING AND 0.5" IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS EVENING...CAUSING SNOW
TO SPREAD IN AND DEVELOP. SIMULTANEOUSLY...MODELS SUGGEST THE HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NEBRASKA WILL GET ADVECTED NORTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR MORE QPF PRODUCTION FROM THE FORCING.
ANOTHER FEATURE AIDING IN MORE QPF IS SOME NEGATIVE EPV PROGGED ON
TOP OF THE F-GEN CIRCULATION...LEADING TO BANDING.

LOCATION...THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED THROUGH THE EVENING. HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED THE BULK OF
THE SNOW TRAVERSING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF
I-94. ON THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE 04.12Z GFS WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF THE
SNOW SOUTHWEST OF LA CROSSE. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW WHICH IS
GENERALLY THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CONCURS WITH EXTRAPOLATION OF
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS.

TIMING...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA BETWEEN 22-03Z WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...THEN EXIT NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 08-12Z WEDNESDAY.

AMOUNTS...04.12Z NAM/GFS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR UPWARD TREND IN QPF
AND THIS FORECAST HAS DONE THE SAME. DID NOT GO FULLY TOWARDS THEIR
AMOUNTS SEEING LIGHTER QPF FROM THE RAP...BUT AN UPWARD TREND IS
NEEDED. SREF QPF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A 0.25 INCH IS LIKELY...BUT
THERE ARE EVEN A FEW MEMBERS SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF A 0.5 INCH.
SHOULD THESE PAN OUT WE WOULD END UP WITH WARNING CRITERIA. RIGHT
NOW...WITH COBB DATA SUGGESTING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS BETWEEN 13-16
TO 1...THINKING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 3-5 INCHES SOUTH AND WEST
OF LA CROSSE. A FEW 6 INCH AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
NEGATIVE EPV. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASE QUICKLY HEADING TO THE NORTHEAST
FROM WINONA TO LA CROSSE NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER
AIR BEING SUCKED INTO THE F-GEN CIRCULATION. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST
UNCERTAIN ALONG AN AXIS FROM WINONA TO LA CROSSE WHERE ANYWHERE FROM
1 TO 5 INCHES SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

AFTER THE SNOW EXITS...MUCH OF WEDNESDAY LOOKS QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER
WHICH WITH SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SOME WEAK OMEGA RESULTING FROM
DIURNAL HEATING...HAVE ADDED SOME FLURRIES. BULK OF THE FLURRY
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

04.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET ALL DEPICT A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT DROP THROUGH ONTARIO
AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS US BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO
PUT SOME SPEED BUMPS IN THE MODERATION.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS ONTARIO ON FRIDAY HELPS
PROPEL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY BLOWING OF THE FRESH SNOW WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE TO NEAR 30 ON THURSDAY. INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
SHOULD LIMIT SOME TEMPERATURE FALL THURSDAY EVENING...WITH RISING
TEMPS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FOLLOWING A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE...READINGS SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE
TEMPERATURE ISSUES...FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE PRECIPITATION. MUCH OF THE DEEPER SYNOPTIC FORCING
IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...BUT GIVEN THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND
LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO BE AROUND...A NEED EXISTS FOR SOME 20-30
PERCENT CHANCES. GIVEN A WARM LAYER PRESENT ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHAT
PRECIP DOES OCCUR COULD EITHER BE LIQUID...SLEET OR SNOW WITH THE
SNOW PROBABILITY HIGHEST TOWARDS TAYLOR COUNTY WITH DEEPER COLD AIR.
SINCE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIGHT...KEPT THE LIQUID FORM AS
FREEZING DRIZZLE / DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THERE
TOO COULD BE ISSUES WITH LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...FAVORING A
DRIZZLE ROUTE.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE A BIT TRICKY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
THE 04.12Z GFS PERSISTS ON DROPPING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT...SENDING A SURGE OF COOLER AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH TAKES UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT TO GET OUT OF HERE. THE
ECMWF...GEM AND UKMET ON THE OTHER HAND CONTINUE TO SAY THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STAYS MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND TRACKS QUICKER TO THE
EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH WARMER SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN EACH
MODEL GROUP HAS STUCK TO THEIR GUNS...HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW A
MODEL CONSENSUS AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
GROUP FLINCHES...THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE RAPIDLY TRENDED COLDER
OR WARMER.

MONDAY REMAINS MOST CONFIDENT TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 6-8C PER ECMWF. PRESENTLY
HAVE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT THESE MAY NEED
TO BE INCREASED MORE...DEPENDING ON HOW SUNDAY PLAYS OUT.

A COOL DOWN THEN ENSUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. INCLUDED SOME 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCES FOR THIS TROUGH. LIMITED MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN
THE LOW CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

SNOW TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS
WITH A SLOW IMPROVING TREND. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
FOUND AFTER 12Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ041-
     053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ086>088-
     094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 1053 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH FRESH SNOW PLAYING HAVOC
WITH TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS FLUCTUATING ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO AS SEEN AT GREEN BAY. MID CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND INCREASING GRADIENT EXPECTED TO LESSEN TREND. TRIED TO
SHOW IN TEMP GRIDS WITH UPDATE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHTS SNOWS EXITING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  LAST LITTLE AREA OF FLURRIES IS MOVING INTO
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN OFF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT
CLOUDS STRETCH BACK ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.  MEANWHILE...NORTHERN WISCONSIN TEMPORARILY CLEARED OUT
THIS MORNING THOUGH ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH STRATUS
PUSHING IN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MID CLOUDS FLOWING IN AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM...WITH FORCING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND MID-LEVEL FGEN...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SNOW OVER SE NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  THE SNOW IS FOLLOWING THE
MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE WHETHER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SNOW PASSES OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND THE TEMPERATURES NEXT.

TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE THERMAL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POSITIONED FROM FAR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE BULLISH
IN PRODUCING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WITHIN THE BAND OF SNOW...BUT
GENERALLY JUST BRUSH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
DIGGING SOUTH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL CAUSE A HUDSON BAY HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTH...AND ADVECT VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR...HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY WITH LAKE
ICE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN. THIS DRY AIR ALSO SUPPORTS KEEPING THE
BAND OF SNOW SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO WILL JUST KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER WOOD AND WAUSHARA COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES TO OCCUR LATE IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT FROM NE TO SW WITH THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR. WITH
WINDS EXPECTING TO DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
OVER N-C AND FAR NE WISCONSIN. STILL THINK TEMPS IN E-C WISCONSIN
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME TANKING DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE NE WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...THE DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES.  THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL TEMPS COOL OFF A COUPLE DEGREES COMPARED TO
TODAY...SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS WITH A FEW
LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

THE AREA WILL FINALLY COME OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE WITH TEMPS
APPROACHING NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...AND LIKELY AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY...THEN A RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
EXPECTED (BUT NOT AS COLD AS START OF MARCH). THERE WILL BE A FEW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SHOTS OF WAA...FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES...A MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE IDENTIFYING THE
"WARMEST" DAYS AND BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR A DRY BUT COLD NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. COMBINATION OF
DRY AIR...VEERING WINDS...SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...AND ICE
COVER ON LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL...SO
ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES...BUT PREFER TO
KEEP ANY FLURRY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN
DEVELOP WILL END AS WINDS TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

WAA BEGINS TO RAMP UP ON THURSDAY...MAINLY ALOFT...AS 850MB TEMPS
ATTEMPT TO FINALLY REACH THE 0C MARK. INCREASING MOISTURE IS ALSO
EXPECTED...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY NOW LOOKS DRY FOR THE AREA...AS MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL ALSO BACK OFF ON
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI...BUT KEEP
LIKELY POPS GOING OVER THE NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACH.

BEST MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING STAY ACROSS THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP FOR
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS
ACROSS THE AREA...FEEL AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO
COVER ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR...PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS ABOVE 0C AIR
BRIEFLY PUSHES OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLEET AND SNOW AS THE MAIN PRECIP TYPES TO COVER THE MIXED
PRECIP CHANCE. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS. PREFER TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT AND ALLOW THE MODELS TO
SHOW A STRONGER SIGNAL. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH LOWER TOTALS AS YOU MOVE
SOUTH. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN LOOK FOR CAA TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS DO SHOW A
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT ALL BUT THE GFS KEEP THE AREA DRY AND WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE DRY SOLUTION AND NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP CHANCES. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...THEN MODELS VARY GREATLY
FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF/GEM WOULD FAVOR HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR
40...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS TEMPS IN THE TEENS. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK
TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME RAIN MIX IN WITH THE SNOW...BUT
THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS TO CHANGE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WHILE
DRY ARCTIC AIR/HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. MID CLOUDS WITH CLIPPER SYSYTEM MOVING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME LOWER CLOUDS SEEN FAR NORTHEAST WI...EARLIER MOISTURE
TRAPPED BY INVERSON NOW SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST AS NORTHEAST
FLOW INCREASES. HAVE ADDED CIG TO RHI...THOUGH ONLY GOING
SCATTERED GRB/ATW/MTW. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WILL EXIST TONIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...THEN EAST BY LATE WED AFTN...BUT THINKING THE VERY DRY
AIR AND ICE OVER THE LAKE MAKES THE CHANCE VERY SMALL. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TE
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......TE








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

 1004 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
CHANGES ARE NOT PLANNED FOR THE MORNING UPDATES WITH WEATHER
PARAMETERS COMING INTO PLACE AT THIS TIME. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING
SHOWS A MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS REMAINING DRY ABOVE
A SUBSIDENCE CAP STILL PERSISTING AT AROUND 7K. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIS INVERSION LAYER ERODING BY 18Z AND
PWAT INCREASING ABOVE 1.25 INCHES. WHILE THIS IS NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE, IT COULD STILL INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE EAST COAST METRO REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, MAINLY FROM AROUND 19Z TO SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE ONE OR TWO
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FOG IS SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR AND COULD AFFECT KAPF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN TAFS...SO REMOVED MENTION FROM EARLIER
TAF SET. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A VCSH MENTION ALONG THE EAST COAST
SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TODAY. AN EXPECTED SURFACE LOW IS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
TOMORROW. AS IT DOES, IT WILL INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
LAYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTH FLORIDA. PLUS, THERE IS
A 500MB TROUGH DIGGING AND DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
WILL CAUSE THE SFC LOW TO DEEPEN. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF. THE NAM IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
GFS. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS TO MAKE LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL THE MODELS HAVE THE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND.

NOW, AS FOR HOW THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. FOR TODAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW, WILL WORK TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE. CUMULUS FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY.
SOME OF THE CU IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND MAY
INTERACT WITH A WEAK CONVERGENCE AREA THAT LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE IN
THE LAKE REGION. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS, HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS IN PALM BEACH
COUNTY AND THE LAKE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NAM MODEL SOUNDING FOR PBI SHOWS CAPE AROUND 1700 JOULES, 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KTS, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS, A
FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 12300 FT, LOW 0-3KM STORM REL HELICITY, A
VEERING WINDS PROFILE, PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
WITHIN 2 SD OF NORMAL, AND STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10KTS. THE
700-500MB LAPSE RATE IS AROUND 5.3. THE NAM SOUNDING IS ALSO
SHOWING A STRONG CAP AT AROUND 700 MB THAT COULD HINDER ANY
DEVELOPMENT AT ALL. THE MODELS DO SHOW A 90-100KT JET AT 250MB
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THEY DO DISAGREE WITH THE EXACT
POSITION. HOWEVER, THIS JET COULD GIVE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO
OVERCOME THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON. THE CAP DOES ERODE BY THIS
EVENING, BUT IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO MAXIMIZE CONVECTION TODAY.
ALSO, WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
AS CURRENT PARAMETERS DO NOT FAVOR ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.

GOING FORWARD TO TOMORROW AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES. CAPE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 JOULES. THE
700-500MB LAPSE RATE DOES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 5.7. THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS AROUND 12000FT, AND 500MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -11C. THE WIND
PROFILE IS SLIGHTLY VEERING WITH HEIGHT. 0-3KM HELICITY WILL ONLY
BE AROUND 69. THE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30KTS AND
THE 0-6KM AROUND 45KTS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 250MB JET, BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE, KEEPING THE AREA
OUT OF THE ENTRANCE OR EXIT REGIONS. THIS MAY LIMIT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ON THURSDAY. ALSO, THERE MAY BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL HAMPER INSOLATION. SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR
SO FLORIDA? BASICALLY IT GIVES THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE GIVEN PARAMETERS, SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG, WITH POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE DUE TO
WIND AND/OR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, BY THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, CONVECTION MAY WANE AS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REDUCE THE
DESTABILIZATION. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE LOW
WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH UNTIL IT EMERGES OVER
THE ATLANTIC, WHICH PUTS THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING, PROBABLY MEANS MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH THE FRONT BRINGING A
LINE OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY EVEN HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OF
COURSE, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW AND WHAT AFFECT CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE ON DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ANY CHANGES IN TIMING AND/OR CONDITIONS COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE CURRENT FORECAST.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A COOLER AIR MASS TO BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR. ALSO, THE DEW POINTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR, IF NOT AT THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURE, WHICH COULD BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND PASSES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR KAPF DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR AND JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS
SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL MODELS KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...SO KEPT
ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

MARINE...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING SOUTHERLY WIND TO SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
IT WILL ALSO CAUSE THE SEAS TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE, BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY, THEN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THEY WILL ALSO INCREASE, CAUSING SEAS TO BUILD
EVEN FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT
IN THE GULF WATERS AND 5 TO 7 FT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE GULF STREAM OFF PALM BEACH. SEAS WILL PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  69  82  70 / 30 20 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  71  83  72 / 30 20 50 50
MIAMI            83  71  84  71 / 20 20 40 50
NAPLES           81  67  80  67 / 20 20 60 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

 750 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FOG IS SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR AND COULD AFFECT KAPF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN TAFS...SO REMOVED MENTION FROM EARLIER
TAF SET. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A VCSH MENTION ALONG THE EAST COAST
SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TODAY. AN EXPECTED SURFACE LOW IS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
TOMORROW. AS IT DOES, IT WILL INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
LAYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTH FLORIDA. PLUS, THERE IS
A 500MB TROUGH DIGGING AND DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
WILL CAUSE THE SFC LOW TO DEEPEN. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF. THE NAM IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
GFS. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS TO MAKE LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL THE MODELS HAVE THE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND.

NOW, AS FOR HOW THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. FOR TODAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW, WILL WORK TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE. CUMULUS FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY.
SOME OF THE CU IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND MAY
INTERACT WITH A WEAK CONVERGENCE AREA THAT LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE IN
THE LAKE REGION. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS, HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS IN PALM BEACH
COUNTY AND THE LAKE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NAM MODEL SOUNDING FOR PBI SHOWS CAPE AROUND 1700 JOULES, 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KTS, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS, A
FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 12300 FT, LOW 0-3KM STORM REL HELICITY, A
VEERING WINDS PROFILE, PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
WITHIN 2 SD OF NORMAL, AND STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10KTS. THE
700-500MB LAPSE RATE IS AROUND 5.3. THE NAM SOUNDING IS ALSO
SHOWING A STRONG CAP AT AROUND 700 MB THAT COULD HINDER ANY
DEVELOPMENT AT ALL. THE MODELS DO SHOW A 90-100KT JET AT 250MB
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THEY DO DISAGREE WITH THE EXACT
POSITION. HOWEVER, THIS JET COULD GIVE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO
OVERCOME THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON. THE CAP DOES ERODE BY THIS
EVENING, BUT IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO MAXIMIZE CONVECTION TODAY.
ALSO, WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
AS CURRENT PARAMETERS DO NOT FAVOR ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.

GOING FORWARD TO TOMORROW AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES. CAPE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 JOULES. THE
700-500MB LAPSE RATE DOES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 5.7. THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS AROUND 12000FT, AND 500MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -11C. THE WIND
PROFILE IS SLIGHTLY VEERING WITH HEIGHT. 0-3KM HELICITY WILL ONLY
BE AROUND 69. THE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30KTS AND
THE 0-6KM AROUND 45KTS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 250MB JET, BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE, KEEPING THE AREA
OUT OF THE ENTRANCE OR EXIT REGIONS. THIS MAY LIMIT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ON THURSDAY. ALSO, THERE MAY BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL HAMPER INSOLATION. SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR
SO FLORIDA? BASICALLY IT GIVES THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE GIVEN PARAMETERS, SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG, WITH POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE DUE TO
WIND AND/OR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, BY THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, CONVECTION MAY WANE AS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REDUCE THE
DESTABILIZATION. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE LOW
WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH UNTIL IT EMERGES OVER
THE ATLANTIC, WHICH PUTS THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING, PROBABLY MEANS MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH THE FRONT BRINGING A
LINE OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY EVEN HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OF
COURSE, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW AND WHAT AFFECT CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE ON DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ANY CHANGES IN TIMING AND/OR CONDITIONS COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE CURRENT FORECAST.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A COOLER AIR MASS TO BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR. ALSO, THE DEW POINTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR, IF NOT AT THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURE, WHICH COULD BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND PASSES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR KAPF DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR AND JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS
SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL MODELS KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...SO KEPT
ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

MARINE...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING SOUTHERLY WIND TO SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
IT WILL ALSO CAUSE THE SEAS TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE, BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY, THEN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THEY WILL ALSO INCREASE, CAUSING SEAS TO BUILD
EVEN FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT
IN THE GULF WATERS AND 5 TO 7 FT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE GULF STREAM OFF PALM BEACH. SEAS WILL PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  69  82  70 / 30 20 60 50
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  71  83  72 / 30 20 50 50
MIAMI            83  71  84  71 / 20 20 40 50
NAPLES           81  67  80  67 / 20 20 60 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...13/SI
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 1036 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE FRONT. THE LAST IN THE SERIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL DIRECT
COLD AIR INTO OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND
SOUTH BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SO DO FORECAST SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAINS TO FALL APART
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM DUE TO THE WEDGE PATTERN...SO
HAVE UNDERCUT NUMBERS ONCE AGAIN.

TONIGHT...MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
REMAINING OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...GENERALLY KEEPING THE CWA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COLD ONCE AGAIN...BUT MOST
SITES WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THOUGH. GOOD NEWS
IS THAT WITH THE PRECIP FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH...THERE SHOULD
NOT BE ANY KIND OF PRECIP ISSUES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE FORECASTED CATEGORICAL POPS. WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORT LIKELY POPS. USED AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THE QPF FORECAST. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.  THE NAM AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BELOW FREEZING LAYER AROUND 2000
FEET IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND THE WARM NOSE ABOVE THE COLD
LAYER APPEARS QUITE WARM. KEPT THE FORECAST CONSISTENT AND
FORECASTED ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGING EAST OF
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE SURFACE WEDGE
ALSO BREAKING DURING THAT TIME. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH THE POP TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE THREAT OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z...THEN IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST.  LOW
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR HINTS THAT THE CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR...WHILE
LAMP GUIDANCE IS LESS CONVINCING. AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE
OGB/AGS/DNL CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
CAE/CUB REMAINING VFR. BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THINK CIGS AT ALL
TAF SITES WILL BE VFR AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOWING A TEMPORARY BREAK IN LOW CIGS
BY THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES...SO HAVE RAISED CIGS TO VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 01Z THURSDAY. CIGS WILL LOWER AFTER THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD...GOING MVFR AT OGB/AGS/DNL...AND REMAINING VFR AT
CAE/CUB... AS MOISTURE AGAIN INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 625 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE FRONT. THE LAST IN THE SERIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL DIRECT
COLD AIR INTO OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. AIR TEMPERATURES WERE HOVERING
AROUND 32 IN THE COUNTIES OF LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD SO AREAS
OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED BECAUSE OF LIGHT AMOUNTS AND MARGINAL AIR TEMPERATURES
PLUS 530 AM DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION ROAD TEMPERATURES WERE
AROUND 35.

THE MODELS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND
SOUTH BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
RAIN BUT EXPECT THIS WOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THE HRRR AND SPC
WRF SUPPORT GREATER RAIN COVERAGE IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO WARM TODAY BECAUSE OF THE
WEDGE PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NAM SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE GFS INDICATES DEEPER MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART BY
12Z THURSDAY. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE POP
FORECAST. BOTH MODELS SHOW MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WE HAVE FORECASTED CATEGORICAL POPS. WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORT LIKELY POPS. USED AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THE QPF FORECAST. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM
AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BELOW FREEZING LAYER AROUND
2000 FEET IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART. WE BELIEVE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE WILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND THE WARM NOSE ABOVE
THE COLD LAYER APPEARS QUITE WARM. KEPT THE FORECAST CONSISTENT
AND FORECASTED ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGING EAST OF
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE SURFACE WEDGE
ALSO BREAKING DURING THAT TIME. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH THE POP TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TODAY BRINGING THE CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN. THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING FOR CAE/CUB...AND BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OGB/AGS/DNL. VFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE
AS TO WHETHER OR NOT CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR
HINTS THAT THE CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR...WHILE LAMP GUIDANCE IS LESS
CONVINCING. AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE OGB/AGS/DNL CIGS LOWERING TO
MVFR LATER THIS MORNING OR BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CAE/CUB
REMAINING VFR. BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THINK CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES
WILL BE VFR AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOWING A TEMPORARY BREAK IN LOW CIGS BY
THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES...SO HAVE RAISED CIGS TO VFR AT ALL
TAF SITES BY 01Z THURSDAY. CIGS WILL LOWER AFTER THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...GOING MVFR AT OGB/AGS/DNL...AND REMAINING VFR AT CAE/CUB...
AS MOISTURE AGAIN INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 812 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

JUST ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE I80
CORRIDOR FROM THE IOWA CITY AREA EAST THROUGH PRINCETON IL THROUGH
11 AM. A NARROW BAND OF FGEN FORCED SNOW HAS SET UP OVER THE AREA.
RECENT SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS HOLD THE BAND OVER THE SAME AREA MOST
OF THE MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN SMALLER INTENSE BANDS EMBEDDED IN
THE AREA OF SNOW THAT HAVE BEEN PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWS FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIME. I DON/T SEE ANY REASON WHY THIS WILL NOT CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 4 OR MORE INCHES. THE FGEN
WAS OCCURRING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN H3 JET OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE JET IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE THE SNOW TO DIMINISH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

THE ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR DUBUQUE COUNTY AT 6 AM.
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF IA MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER
AN INCH.

THE BAND OF SNOW ALONG I80 CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WERE UPDATED FOR A BAND TO L TO 2 INCHES FROM ABOUT THE IOWA CITY
AREA THROUGH PRINCETON IL. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SAG
SOUTH BY MID MORNING ENDING THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT WAS ALSO RECENTLY ISSUED FOR THIS BAND OF SNOW
CONCERNING RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MO. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS
NEARLY ZONAL OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. AT 00Z S/WS EMBEDDED IN THE
ZONAL FLOW WERE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE HAD SPREAD SNOW INTO THE
NORTHERN CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WAVE...PATCHY SNOW WAS OCCURRING FROM NEBRASKA
INTO WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

FGEN FORCING AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS S/W HAS SET UP THIS MORNING
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHERN IL. IT APPEARS THE BANDED SNOW
WILL STAY OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED OVER NW IL TO AROUND 3 INCHES FOR THE MAX.
WITH THE BANDED NATURE OF THE SNOW THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE HIT
AND MISS SO NOT ALL AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WILL SEE THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS. TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO THE ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE
AND DUBUQUE COUNTIES WHICH ARE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BETTER
FORCING. THE ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED SOON FOR BUCHANAN COUNTY
WHERE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER AN INCH.

MODELS SAG THE FGEN FORCING SOUTH THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN ROCKIES S/W. THEY COUPLE THE FGEN WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA
SUPPORTING A NARROW EAST-WEST BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING NEAR I80
EARLY THIS MORNING AND PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNTS WITH THIS BAND ARE IN
QUESTION AT THIS POINT WITH THE MESO SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING AN
AXIS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG I80 CORRIDOR. THE HRRR PROGS ARE IN
LINE WITH THE HIGHER QPF RAP13 BUT THE HRRR/S LATEST RUN IS
OVERDOING THE AREA AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA.  THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS
QPF/SNOWFALL OVER THE SAME AREA. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
LOW QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS WHICH YIELD A SWATH OF AROUND 1 INCH NEAR I80
FROM THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
TONIGHT SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH TEENS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT
259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A
PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL AND SOMEWHAT SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW KEEPS ARCTIC
AIR BOTTLED UP WELL TO THE NORTH. A MINOR SETBACK WILL BE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A CANADIAN HIGH...FOLLOWING A FRIDAY/S
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION
KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA BELOW FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND RETURNING
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ON A
PERIOD OF LIFT BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WHEN LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH OVER SE CANADA AND DEVELOPING FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WILL PRODUCE A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD WARM AT
LEAST UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SW...WHILE A SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST MAY LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S.
FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE NW
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING WITH POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. THIS TIMING SHOULD ALLOW THE PREFRONTAL SW
WINDS TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE FAR SW
POTENTIALLY TOUCHING 50. THE GFS...WITH ITS HIGH MOISTURE BIAS IN
THE LOW LEVELS...WOULD SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH DOES NOT LOOK REALISTIC. WILL INSTEAD KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO POST FRONTAL...OVER THE FAR WEST AND
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW DURING THE DAY...THEN SNOW
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA UNDER AN AXIS OF
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT THAT DROPS INTO CENTRAL IL
AND SOUTHERN MO. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND MAGNITUDE OF FORCING
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN WESTERN CANADA DROPS
SOUTHEAST PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING...AND FOR NOW...THE MODEL
CONSENSUS REFLECTS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AND HOLDS ONTO
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING...AS
SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE COLDER AIRMASS AND SNOW COVER WILL
RETURN HIGHS TO THE 20S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 30S...WITH LOWS AS
MENTIONED POSSIBLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THERE REMAINS LOW CONSISTENCY IN THE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE FEATURES AMONG MODELS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A WARMING TREND LOOKS LIKELY FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING HIGH
SUNDAY. CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY...THEN
REACHING THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND POTENTIALLY MUCH WARMER...
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION BASED ON POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIKELY TO AFFECT THE
REGION SOMEWHERE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

SNOW WAS TAPERING OFF OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST IL...BUT
REDEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR.  FROM THE I80
CORRIDOR SOUTH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL IFR OR
LIFR CANDIDATES WILL SPREAD SOUTH THIS MORNING. THE BAND OF SNOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL IL. THE KCID AREA IS
BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF SNOW AND SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS MOST
OF THE MORNING THEN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AFTER THE SNOW ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE HAZE OR FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING FROM THE NORTH
LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CEDAR-
     JOHNSON-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
     HENRY IL-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-WHITESIDE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CARROLL-
     JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DLF
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...DLF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 633 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

THE ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR DUBUQUE COUNTY AT 6 AM.
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF IA MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER
AN INCH.

THE BAND OF SNOW ALONG I80 CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WERE UPDATED FOR A BAND TO L TO 2 INCHES FROM ABOUT THE IOWA CITY
AREA THROUGH PRINCETON IL. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SAG
SOUTH BY MID MORNING ENDING THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. A
SPECIAL WX STATEMENT WAS ALSO RECENTLY ISSUED FOR THIS BAND OF SNOW
CONCERNING RAPIDLY CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MO. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS
NEARLY ZONAL OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. AT 00Z S/WS EMBEDDED IN THE
ZONAL FLOW WERE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE HAD SPREAD SNOW INTO THE
NORTHERN CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WAVE...PATCHY SNOW WAS OCCURRING FROM NEBRASKA
INTO WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

FGEN FORCING AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS S/W HAS SET UP THIS MORNING
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHERN IL. IT APPEARS THE BANDED SNOW
WILL STAY OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED OVER NW IL TO AROUND 3 INCHES FOR THE MAX.
WITH THE BANDED NATURE OF THE SNOW THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE HIT
AND MISS SO NOT ALL AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WILL SEE THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS. TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO THE ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE
AND DUBUQUE COUNTIES WHICH ARE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BETTER
FORCING. THE ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED SOON FOR BUCHANAN COUNTY
WHERE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER AN INCH.

MODELS SAG THE FGEN FORCING SOUTH THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN ROCKIES S/W. THEY COUPLE THE FGEN WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA
SUPPORTING A NARROW EAST-WEST BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING NEAR I80
EARLY THIS MORNING AND PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNTS WITH THIS BAND ARE IN
QUESTION AT THIS POINT WITH THE MESO SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING AN
AXIS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG I80 CORRIDOR. THE HRRR PROGS ARE IN
LINE WITH THE HIGHER QPF RAP13 BUT THE HRRR/S LATEST RUN IS
OVERDOING THE AREA AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA.  THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS
QPF/SNOWFALL OVER THE SAME AREA. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
LOW QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS WHICH YIELD A SWATH OF AROUND 1 INCH NEAR I80
FROM THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
TONIGHT SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH TEENS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT
259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A
PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL AND SOMEWHAT SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW KEEPS ARCTIC
AIR BOTTLED UP WELL TO THE NORTH. A MINOR SETBACK WILL BE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A CANADIAN HIGH...FOLLOWING A FRIDAY/S
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION
KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA BELOW FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND RETURNING
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ON A
PERIOD OF LIFT BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WHEN LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH OVER SE CANADA AND DEVELOPING FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WILL PRODUCE A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD WARM AT
LEAST UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SW...WHILE A SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST MAY LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S.
FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE NW
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING WITH POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. THIS TIMING SHOULD ALLOW THE PREFRONTAL SW
WINDS TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE FAR SW
POTENTIALLY TOUCHING 50. THE GFS...WITH ITS HIGH MOISTURE BIAS IN
THE LOW LEVELS...WOULD SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH DOES NOT LOOK REALISTIC. WILL INSTEAD KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO POST FRONTAL...OVER THE FAR WEST AND
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW DURING THE DAY...THEN SNOW
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA UNDER AN AXIS OF
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT THAT DROPS INTO CENTRAL IL
AND SOUTHERN MO. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND MAGNITUDE OF FORCING
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN WESTERN CANADA DROPS
SOUTHEAST PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING...AND FOR NOW...THE MODEL
CONSENSUS REFLECTS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AND HOLDS ONTO
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING...AS
SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE COLDER AIRMASS AND SNOW COVER WILL
RETURN HIGHS TO THE 20S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 30S...WITH LOWS AS
MENTIONED POSSIBLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THERE REMAINS LOW CONSISTENCY IN THE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE FEATURES AMONG MODELS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A WARMING TREND LOOKS LIKELY FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING HIGH
SUNDAY. CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY...THEN
REACHING THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND POTENTIALLY MUCH WARMER...
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION BASED ON POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIKELY TO AFFECT THE
REGION SOMEWHERE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

SNOW WAS TAPERING OFF OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST IL...BUT
REDEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR.  FROM THE I80
CORRIDOR SOUTH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL IFR OR
LIFR CANDIDATES WILL SPREAD SOUTH THIS MORNING. THE BAND OF SNOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL IL. THE KCID AREA IS
BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF SNOW AND SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS MOST
OF THE MORNING THEN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AFTER THE SNOW ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE HAZE OR FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING FROM THE NORTH
LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CARROLL-
     JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DLF
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...DLF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 516 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 509 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

HAVE DONE A COUPLE OF UPDATES ALREADY. PRECIPITATION IS ENDING MUCH
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. SO HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST POPS
TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW. SO HAVE A MIXTURE OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW DURING THIS WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.. SINCE CLEARING IS OCCURRING ALREADY IN THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA...FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS HAVING ANY KIND OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
OUTPUT BUT I DIGRESS. WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THIS MORNING...IF ANY...AND THE PHASE OF THAT
PRECIPITATION...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING ON FRIDAY...AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT STILL
PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH WITH ONE MOVING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
ANOTHER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG PV ANOMALIES
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.

AIR MASS WARMED CONSIDERABLY OVER YESTERDAY BUT ANOTHER FRONT MOVED
THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO TAKE AWAY THAT WARMING. AT JET LEVEL...
MODELS HAVING A LOT OF TROUBLE HERE. THEY ARE EITHER UNDERDOING WIND
SPEEDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND JET NOSING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN OR HAVE THE POSITION OF THOSE JETS CORRECTLY. AT MID LEVELS...
THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS INITIALIZED TOO COLD TO OUR NORTH. THE
CANADIAN WAS DOING BEST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SINCE AROUND 06Z RADAR HAS SHOWN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO/THROUGH AREA INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. 00Z NAM...03Z RUC AND EARLIER HRRR KEPT THE AREA NEARLY
DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INDICATED. HOWEVER
LATER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD MORE PRECIPITATION BUT KEPT MOST OF IT
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO STATELINE. 06Z RUN HAS CAUGHT ONTO
WHAT THE RADAR IS SHOWING AND IS SHOWING A NICE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING ACROSS.

ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER JET SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. DESPITE INITIAL
ANALYSIS PROBLEMS...THE MODELS DO TAKE A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
ACROSS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. BY 18Z LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF NORTH
TO SOUTH JET LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST BY 00Z. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. ALL THIS IS CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY AND
CONSIDERING WHAT RADAR AND REALITY ARE SHOWING...MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE POPS THIS MORNING. ALSO HAVE BEEN GETTING A MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. LOOKS LIKE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THIS LOOKS CAPTURED
REASONABLY WITH THE GRIDS AND ALSO DID NOT CHANGE.

MODEL DIFFERENCE IN HOW COLD OR WARM TO MAKE IT TODAY. LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION. MAJORITY
OF THE DATA SUPPORTED GOING MORE ON THE WARMER SIDE. SO ENDED UP
ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE WHAT IS
CAPTURING REALITY AT THIS TIME. DID ADJUST DOWN A LITTLE BIT
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL HAVE THE CLOUDS LONGEST.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL LATELY DUE TO NOT HAVING THE SNOWFIELD
CAPTURED CORRECTLY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND WHAT HAS BEEN
DOING BEST IN THE NON-SNOW COVERED AREAS SUPPORTED CURRENT KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH EITHER VERY LATE
IN THE NIGHT OR EARLY THE MORNING ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES FOR
THIS PERIOD AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND ALMOST LOOK LIKE A SPAGHETTI
PLOT. MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...SPECIFICALLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO BREAK OFF THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF THE TROUGH. MODELS LOOK LIKE THEY DIVE A STRONGER JET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SO THAT GENERAL SCENARIO LOOKS
REASONABLE. AS IT LOOKS NOW THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WHERE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS IT.

DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES BEING SO GREAT AND THE GENERAL IDEA OF WHAT
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MATCHES WITH THE FORECAST...WHICH ALSO MATCHES
UP WELL WITH THIS PATTERN AND WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON...WILL NOT
CHANGE THE POPS AND WEATHER. ALTHOUGH COULD SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEING LESS CONSIDERING THE TREND OF THE MODELS BEING FURTHER
WEST. FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT GOES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. DID LOWER THE
MAXES SOME CONSIDERING THIS BUT COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL AMOUNT OF
COOLING NEEDED. ALSO WITH THE GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE 3
HOUR PRESSURE RISES THAT MOVE ACROSS BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS LOOK TO
BE IN THE WINDY CATEGORY.

THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW WILL END EARLY SATURDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS
TO THE EAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON REPRESENTATION OF THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THAT
PERIOD. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN A RATHER STRONG KICKER BEHIND THE
INITIAL WAVE...BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH KICKER. CANNOT JUSTIFY
MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. IT SHOULD HOWEVER COOL
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 509 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

WHAT PRECIPITATION THERE IS HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF BOTH TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...BOTH SITES WILL HAVE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
18Z DUE TO STRATUS AND FOG. AFTER THAT VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT/SHIFTING WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JDK
AVIATION...BULLER







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 557 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Enhanced radar returns from the Mosaic radar loop over northeast
Colorado earlier this morning related well to an area of 700mb
frontogenesis at 06z from the the latest RAP, NAM and GFS. Each
Model move this area of frontogenesis across southwest Kansas
between 12z and 21z. In addition the model soundings today
suggested the precipitation type will be mainly snow as this band
of steadier precipitation crosses southwest Kansas. NAM and GFS
however differ slightly on timing with the GFS more progressive
than the NAM. They also differ slightly on a shallow warm layer in
the 875 to 800mb layer which if the warmer NAM is more correct
would support a chance for sleet at times. At this time will
continue to mention of mix of sleet and snow given uncertainty of
this warm layer and based on the latest RAP have trended more
towards progressive GFS on timing of the steadier precipitation.
Given the more progressive solution the precipitation will end
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Clouds will also
begin to decrease from northwest to southeast late in the day
based subsidence and drier air developing in the wake of an upper
level trough as it crosses western Kansas between 18z Wednesday
and 00z Thursday. With some breaks of sun possible by late day in
far western/west Central Kansas will trend towards the warmer
MET/MAV guidance for highs while further east favor the cooler NAM
2 meter temps. Given how progressive this system is expected today
will continue to favor snowfall amounts of 1 inch or less,
however if a band of the steadier precipitation persists longer in
one area, like what the NAM suggests between 18z and 21z, then a few
locations may have totals of up to 2 inches. Still given this snow
amounts will be below advisory criteria.

Tonight a surface ridge axis will cross south central Kansas as
surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies.
Southwest winds developing across much of western Kansas early
tonight may limit how cold temperatures will be early Thursday
morning so will continue to favor temperatures bottoming in the 20
to 25 degree range across far western and West central Kansas.
Further east, near the surface ridge axis, will lower temperatures
back to around 15 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

The GFS/GEM/UKMET were generally accepted over the ECMWF in regards
to the next upper level system to affect western Kansas Friday and
Saturday. The associated cold front will progress through western Kansas
Friday, with upper level energy hanging back over the southern Rockies
Friday night, and then slowly progressing southeastward in positively
tiled fashion by Saturday. This is certainly far from an ideal
prescription for a significant precipitation event given the lack of
low level baroclinic development, with post frontal cold advection
dominating. There is a small chance of rain late Friday and Friday
evening before a changeover to snow occurs later Friday night.
Some accumulation of snow is possible by midday Saturday before the
precipitation shuts off.

After the aforementioned upper level system moves southward into
Texas on Sunday, upper level ridging will develop over the central
high plains, with lee trough formation over the high plains. This
will lead to southwesterly boundary layer winds and warmer
temperatures for Sunday into Monday. Temperatures may even reach
70 on Monday.

Yet another upper level system will approach the central and southern
high plains by Tuesday or Tuesday night, along with cooler air and
another chance of rain or snow in the wake of the surface cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

IFR CIGS at GCK will expand in the wake of a cold front to include
GCK/HYS by 15z. VISBYS may drop to 1-3 miles briefly if snow develops
as expected ahead of an upper level disturbance. Clearing will
occur after 23z after the passage of the disturbance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  19  57  35 /  70   0   0   0
GCK  35  23  63  35 /  70   0   0   0
EHA  40  28  66  40 /  50   0   0   0
LBL  38  23  63  38 /  60   0   0   0
HYS  32  19  56  33 /  70   0   0   0
P28  34  14  52  34 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...Finch







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

 950 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
PRODUCING CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST HANDLING THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
WELL. FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE BLENDED IN LATEST HRRR AND RAP TO THE
GOING POP FORECAST TO BETTER CAPTURE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND ACROSS NH THIS AFTN. COULD SEE LOCAL 1 TO 2
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON IN A N-S LINE IN NH THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH INVERTED SFC REFLECTION.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUSLY...

UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
SNFL IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY SLIPPING S. SRN ZONES COULD SEE A FEW
MORE HOURS -SN...BUT QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND TOTALS WILL AMOUNT TO
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FRESH ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY SINK
SWD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THOUGH FORCING ISN/T OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...INTENSE THERMAL PACKING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHSN AS IT MARCHES SWD. MAY SEE OCCASIONAL
BANDS OF MORE STEADY SNFL AS IT DOES SO...AS IS SEEN ATTM FROM
KIZG TO KWVL. POCKETS OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT QPF...THUS
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE SNFL. AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...FOCUSED ON THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA
AND IN THE MTNS OF NH. LATE TODAY A STRONGER S/WV WILL CROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME STRONGER LIFT. HOWEVER DRYING ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN BY THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC FNT CONTINUES TO SAG THRU THE CWFA TONIGHT INTO THU. EXPECT
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM N TO S. AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME VERY COLD TEMPS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN VALLEYS...WHILE SRN
ZONES MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE FOR IDEAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CREST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HEADING OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. ALL
MODELS WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WELL WEST OF THIS
SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT FOCUSED
CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTLINE.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM CANADA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MORE SIGNIFICANT
EAST COAST STORM AROUND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL TO BE
DETERMINED IF SUFFICIENT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE AROUND TO ALLOW
FOR SNOW...OR A COLD RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE SHORT
TERM. SCT SHSN WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ALONG SAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT WILL BE TEMPO IN NATURE. ONLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE INVOF KHIE WHERE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OF LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FNT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS THRU THE DAY. CAA
BEHIND THE FNT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS
ON THE OUTER WATERS. EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 847 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES BRING PERIODIC CLOUD COVER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A CROSSING SHRTWV...ASSOCIATED CDFNT...CONTS TO SPREAD CLDS OVR
THE REGION THIS MRNG. SLGT POPS WERE INCLUDED WITH PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND INCOMING RAP MDL DATA.
NEVERTHELESS...ANY PCPN WL BE LGT. THE DISTURBANCE WL ALSO REINFORCE
COLD AIR OVR THE REGION...HENCE EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO TOP OUT 10-15
DEG BLO SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK MD LVL TROFG WL KEEP SOME CLDS ACRS THE RGN TNGT BEFORE EXITING
THU. SFC RIDGING SETS UP THU THRU ERLY SAT WITH DRY WEA EXPD. LOW
PRES DVLPG OVR THE SERN CONUS SHOULD STAY TO OUR SE. THE NAM SOLN
APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER BRINGING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER N THAN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. A CDFNT WL SLOWLY APCH THE GT LKS SAT BRINGING
MAINLY RAIN SHWR CHCS LTR IN THE DAY. A WRMG TREND WL CONT INTO
SAT WITH TEMPS RCHG NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG BY FRI AND SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN THEN SETS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK CDFNT WL COMPLETE A CROSSING OF THE UPR OH REGION TDA
ACCOMPANIED BY VFR STRATOCU AND LGT N SFC WIND. VFR WL CONT TNGT
AS BLDG HIGH PRES DISSIPATES THE STRATUSCU.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A SATURDAY...EARLY
SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

 327 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU THANKS TO THE EASTWARD PUSH
OF A WARM PACIFIC AIR MASS UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

TODAY...WE ARE CARRYING SOME PATCHY FOG IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MT
THROUGH 15 UTC...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON CARRYING LOW POPS OVER
THAT AREA THIS MORNING SINCE RADAR ECHOES ARE SPARSE/WEAK AS OF 10
UTC. PLUS...THE HRRR /WHICH CAPTURES THE CURRENT RADAR ECHOES/ HAS
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DISSIPATING BY ABOUT 14 UTC AS A WEAK WAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT ACTIVITY HEADS EAST. VERY WARM AIR AT 850 HPA
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH VALUES BY LATE
AFTERNOON FROM +7 TO +11 C. WE ONCE AGAIN BUILT OUR FORECAST HIGHS
USING MOSTLY THE 00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED...MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IT
DID WELL ON TUE...SO WE HAVE LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THAT IT WILL
NOT PERFORM WELL AGAIN AS THE SNOWFIELD CONTINUES TO COMPACT/MELT.
THIS MEANS HIGHS ARE WELL INTO THE 40S F AGAIN...WITH 50S F ACROSS
HIGHER AND MORE EXPOSED RIDGES /SIMILAR TO TUE/. WE ACTUALLY ENDED
UP CARRYING SOME LOW POPS THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY SOUTHEASTWARD
TO ROUNDUP AND BILLINGS...MAINLY IN RESPECT TO THE 06 UTC GFS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AT LIVINGSTON THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
PEAK SPEEDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN BOTH THE LOW-LEVEL
HEIGHT GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC WINDS DRIVEN BY PRESSURE FALLS ARE
WELL-LINKED. STILL...WE CHOSE TO CARRY GUSTS TO 55 MPH FOR NOW AND
HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STABILITY
AT MOUNTAIN-TOP LEVEL WILL BE MARGINAL FOR STRONG GAP FLOW. WE ARE
ALSO UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE BACKGROUND PATTERN /WHICH MAY BE OFF JUST
A BIT FROM A CLASSIC EVENT/...WHICH IS A QUESTION MARK THAT/S ALSO
BORNE OUT BY CIPS ANALOG PROBABILITIES FOR 50+ KT GUSTS /WHICH ARE
ONLY NEAR 10 PERCENT/. OTHERWISE...SOME SHOWER CHANCES ARE CARRIED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH RELATIVELY HIGHER /30 TO 40
PERCENT/ POPS FROM BILLINGS TO ROUNDUP AND HYSHAM AFTER 06 UTC. IT
WILL ALSO BE A MILD NIGHT...AND IF CLOUDS ARE THICK...OUR FORECAST
LOWS /WHICH ARE MAINLY IN THE 30S OR LOWER 40S/ COULD BE TOO COLD.

BY THU...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A 500-HPA SHORT
WAVE...AND THE NAEFS-BASED ANOMALY DATA REMAINS LOCKED INTO A GOOD
SIGNAL FOR STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT AS ITS INTEGRATED WATER
VAPOR VALUES SHOW A RETURN INTERVAL OF 10 TO 30 YEARS /CONSIDERING
OTHER EVENTS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR/. THUS...WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE
POPS OVER MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND ARE STILL EXPECTING A
GOOD 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THU NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MILD ON THU WITH HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 40S AND PROBABLY
50S F IN MANY CASES...THOUGH THICK CLOUDS COULD END UP HOLDING THE
HIGHS BACK A BIT MORE THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW.
MODELS INDICATING PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING INTO MONTANA BUT OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MINIMAL. COLD
FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL SET UP A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MONTANA. SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S BOTH DAYS. UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA WHICH WILL BRING GAP FLOW WINDS TO LIVINGSTON AND
THE NYE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN WASHINGTON STATE. THE STRONGEST ENERGY
WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF SC/SE MT BUT SOME WEAKER ENERGY AND
MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH GIVING US A CHANCE OF SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES SLIP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. THE ONLY FLIGHT HAZARD THIS MORNING WILL BE PATCHY FOG IN
THE BAKER AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KLVM AFTER 18Z
TODAY WHICH WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO
THE SHOWERS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN KLVM WITH 30
TO 40 KTS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF OBSCURATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049 039/050 027/040 026/051 032/058 036/052 029/047
    2/W 34/W    33/W    11/U    01/N    12/W    22/W
LVM 049 040/052 028/045 025/049 032/057 035/052 027/045
    2/W 56/W    43/W    21/U    11/N    22/W    22/W
HDN 054 036/050 025/039 024/050 029/058 035/055 029/049
    1/B 34/W    33/W    11/U    00/B    12/W    12/W
MLS 045 029/044 018/031 019/046 029/054 034/051 028/047
    1/B 24/W    22/J    11/B    00/B    12/W    12/W
4BQ 047 030/049 022/037 022/048 028/059 034/055 028/048
    0/B 24/W    32/W    11/B    00/B    12/W    12/W
BHK 045 025/043 015/028 015/041 026/051 029/048 024/042
    1/B 13/W    22/J    11/B    00/B    12/W    11/B
SHR 051 032/056 026/044 023/052 028/061 032/055 027/046
    0/B 13/W    43/W    21/U    00/B    12/W    13/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 650 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT... BRINGING CHILLY TEMPERATURES BACK FOR THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST... BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

PRECIP CHANCES WILL PERSIST TODAY IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA... BUT
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT AND INCONSEQUENTIAL. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS
A WEAK RESIDUAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA EXTENDING FROM NC NE OVER THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA... RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH AND NE SURFACE WINDS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
OUTER BANKS IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CWA... WHICH MODELS INDICATE WILL SLOWLY DEPART WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL GA
ACROSS UPSTATE/CENTRAL SC INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NC... AND HAS BEEN
SPREADING SLOWLY NE IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO BE
LARGELY SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE 150+ KT JET FROM WV OUT OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS ALL GENERALLY SHOW THIS LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CWA TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER AS TO
THE QPF AND NORTHWARD EXTENT. BASED ON THE CURRENT LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSION (AROUND 15 DEG)... RAP MODEL TRENDS... AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LACK OF SATURATION BELOW 800 MB EVEN AT FAY...
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A VERY LIGHT EVENT WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/SE OF ROCKINGHAM-FORT BRAGG-GOLDSBORO. WILL
KEEP POPS HERE IN THE 20-40% RANGE... HIGHEST IN SRN SAMPSON CO.
CURRENT SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS ALONG THE PATH OF THIS LIGHT PRECIP
ARE BELOW FREEZING... BUT THESE ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 32F BY
LATE MORNING. WILL START PRECIP OUT AS LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN... CHANGING TO JUST LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT ANY ACCRUAL TO BE
MINIMAL GIVEN THE LACK OF A SOURCE OF DRY AIR TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS
OF THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE... PLUS COVERAGE AND DURATION OF NON-RAIN
PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY SORT OF
CONCERN FOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS. HIGHS FROM 45 SOUTHEAST TO 53 IN THE
FAR WRN TRIAD REGION. THE HIGH-ROOTED LIFT WILL EXIT BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON... SO WILL END PRECIP CHANCES BY THIS TIME... WITH SKIES
TRENDING TO FAIR/PARTLY CLOUDY. A BACKDOOR FRONT NOW STRETCHING JUST
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH NC
TONIGHT... WITH THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE BEING AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS AS THE 1040 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ESE
TO A POSITION OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE NOSING SOUTHWARD
INTO NC. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FROM
28-30 NORTH TO 33-35 SOUTHEAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

...A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...

WEST COAST RIDGING WILL ALLOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN GOMEX BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A MILLER-A TYPE SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY.  UPPER DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MODELS
KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
MIDDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE CAROLINAS.  WHILE THE HIGH IS
PROGRESSIVE...THE HIGH DOES SHIFT INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION OVER NEW
ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  AS THE HIGH NOSES INTO
THE AREA...DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE PUSHES SOUTH TO THE
NC/SC BORDER.  DURING THIS TIME...PARTIAL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST
TO HOVER NEAR 1300/1550...WHICH SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...WITH A WARM NOSE AS
FAR WEST ARE THE TRIAD AND MORE PROMINENT THAN IN PAST MODEL RUNS.
WE EXPECT TO LOSE THE SUPPLY OF COLD AIR BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH RISE IN
SURFACE TEMPS TO MITIGATE ADDITIONAL ICING.

ONE OF THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTIES IS IN QPF.  THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK...WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON BEING EAST OF
CHARLESTON FRIDAY MORNING...AND STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION/LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP FOCUSED OVER EASTERN NC.
HOWEVER...MODELS HINT AT SOME MID-LEVEL FGEN BACK TO THE
WEST...WHERE MODELS HAVE VARIED TREMENDOUSLY WITH QPF FROM RUN TO
RUN...WITH THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF GOING FROM AROUND AN INCH
OVER WESTERN NC TO NEARLY NOTHING...BACK TO AN INCH AGAIN ON THE
MOST RECENT RUN.

THE BOTTOM LINE AT THIS POINT IS THAT WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX...WITH LESSER
CHANCES CLOSER TO THE TRIANGLE AND POINTS EAST.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE AND POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS IS STILL LOW
GIVEN SOME OF THE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACE/850MB LOW TRACK
AND WESTERN EXTENT/STRENGTHEN OF THE WARM NOSE.

CHILLY HIGHS IN THE 40S ON THURSDAY WILL BE SENSITIVE TO HOW QUICKLY
PRECIP SPREADS INTO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING INTO THE 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT...HOVERING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE
GREATEST. GIVEN THAT MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH PRECIP EXITING
ON FRIDAY AND THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR DAMMING AIRMASS WILL HAVE TO BE
ERODED...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AGAIN. OW FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL PERIOD WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND NO LARGE
DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL TEMPS... BUT TURNING WARMER.

FOR SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKS NE WELL
OFF THE NE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH DRY LOW-MID LEVEL AIR. A
WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS... BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
FORECAST THICKNESSES NEAR NORMAL AND MODIFYING SUPPORT TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
NORTHEAST STATES SUNDAY WILL PUSH A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NC... ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THIS WAVE`S AMPLITUDE
WITH THE FASTER/WEAKER ECMWF KEEPING IT TO OUR NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE THE SLOWER/STRONGER GFS PUSHES IT TO OUR SOUTH (RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPS SUN/SUN NIGHT). SUCH DETAILS ARE UNRESOLVABLE AT THIS
RANGE SO WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE... WITH SUNDAY TEMPS SIMILAR TO
SAT BUT A BIT COOLER SUN NIGHT AS COMPARED TO SAT NIGHT.

FOR MON-TUE: TROUGHING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER NM/OK/TX INTO NRN
MEX OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OUT OVER THE NW GULF EARLY IN
THE WEEK... WHILE THE LARGELY FLAT AND WNW MID LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH
OF THE CONUS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER RATHER TRANQUIL WITH ONLY WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHING AND A DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL
AS THICKNESSES RISE. GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...

GOING FROM THE THE BEST TO WORST AVIATION CONDITIONS: FIRST... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT INT/GSO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
(THROUGH TONIGHT). WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
INTERIOR MIDATLANTIC REGION DOWN THROUGH NC WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
TODAY... AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD NC LATE
TODAY... PUSHING SOUTH THIS EVENING. NEXT... AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND RESULTING MOIST ATLANTIC INFLOW
BROUGHT MVFR CIGS (BUT VFR VSBYS) EARLY THIS MORNING. RDU HAS SINCE
RISEN TO VFR AT RDU... BUT AT RWI/FAY... MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO
HOLD THROUGH 00Z... FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBILITY OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT RWI. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES SE AND ERN NC TODAY... BRIEF VSBYS OF 5-6 SM IN
LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT DOMINATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE NNE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY... INCREASING TO AROUND 10-12 KTS
THIS EVENING BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD... AND
TO 12-15 KTS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THU MORNING. WHILE LLWS CRITERIA ARE UNLIKELY TO BE MET
TONIGHT... AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A QUICK
INCREASE IN NE WINDS TO 25-30 KTS AT AROUND 1000-1500 FT AGL AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z TONIGHT... THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT FAY
EARLY THU MORNING DUE TO THE ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT... BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THU AFTERNOON. A STORM SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN GULF THU
BEFORE TRACKING EAST THEN NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST... BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIP (POTENTIALLY WINTRY) AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL NC FROM 21Z THU THROUGH FRI EVENING. STRONG NE WINDS
(ESPECIALLY AT FAY/RWI) AND LLWS ARE LIKELY LATE THU THROUGH FRI DUE
TO THE COASTAL STORM. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE FRI
NIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH SUN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WITH LIGHT WINDS. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 941 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

STATUS QUO FOR THIS UPDATE. GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS INDUCING SOME BLOWING SNOW
THIS AFTN AND EVENING COUPLED WITH A ROUND OF WAA SNOW. SOME
CONCERN WITH EXTENT OF COVERAGE OF BLOWING SNOW AND WILL MONITOR
TO SEE IF WNTR WX ADVSY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE FORECAST THINKING
FOR TODAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED...OR UPGRADED. AS OF NOW...IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE.

FOR TONIGHT...STILL EXPECT A BREAK IN SNOWFALL AND WINDS TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THEN...A BAND OF SNOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY TWO. SINCE THE
LAST DISCUSSION...HAD A CHANCE TO LOOK MORE IN DETAIL AT THIS
EVENT. THE 06Z GFS INDICATES THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PWATS WILL BE NEAR 0.5 INCH...ALONG WITH
STRONG 850MB FRONTOGENESIS. ALTHOUGH THE HI-RES MODELS
(NAM12...WRF MODELS) MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE PRECIP
PLACEMENT...THEY SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT IDEA REGARDING AMOUNTS.
THEY INDICATE AROUND 0.40 INCHES WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BAND. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850MB
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ADVECT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL...SO THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
(AND POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SOUTH OF THE SNOWFALL). THE
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE IS COMING IN SUPPORTING THE GFS PLACEMENT...SO
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. WILL RAISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WORRY
ABOUT TODAYS HEADLINES BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL HEADLINES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW...AND A FEW
SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 00Z MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT DO DIFFER WITH DETAILS. 00Z NAM IS
FURTHER NORTH/SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS...WILL FOLLOW A ECMWF/GFS
BLEND.

TODAY...THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND AND INCOMING HI-RES MODELS (MPX
WRF...RAP...HRRR) SUGGEST A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
-SN ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2 THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD BE LOWER (12:1-14:1) CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED FORCING
MECHANISM. USING THE FAVORED MODEL QPF BLEND GIVES AROUND 0.10
INCHES...AND EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL (POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES). ANTICIPATE THAT THIS SNOWFALL
WILL OCCUR IN A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD...SO RATES WILL BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING AN ADIABATIC LAYER TO 900MB...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SFC-
925MB WIND DIRECTION...AND 925MB WIND SPEEDS 30-35 KNOTS (POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO OVER 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING). THESE CONDITIONS
USUALLY LEAD TO 25-35 MPH WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY (AND
TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY).
THERE HAS BEEN SOME VERY LIGHT FRESH SNOW THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...AND AT LEAST BLOWING SNOW SEEMS POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY...WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST...AND ANOTHER
INCH OR SO OF FRESH SNOW WILL OCCUR...VISIBILITIES MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED IN BLOWING SNOW (POSSIBLY NEAR BLIZZARD IN
SOME AREAS). CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT A
LONG DURATION OF WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...BUT CERTAINLY A
BRIEF PERIOD ALONG WITH THE FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS THE MORE
FAVORED OPEN AREAS WHEN THERE IS NO FALLING SNOW (FOR
EXAMPLE...THE CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK CORRIDOR). COULD SEE THE
ADVISORY BEING EXPANDED IF WIND SPEEDS ARE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN FA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS
FURTHEST SOUTH WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP...BUT HAS BEEN VERIFYING BEST
LATELY WITH LOCATION OF PRECIP. MESOSCALE FORCING (MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS) IS STRONGER WITH THIS EVENT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CLOSELY. THINKING 1-3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...BUT
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BUT STILL 20-25 MPH. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THIS EVENT AS WELL. 850MB TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING MAY ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
BAND...LEADING TO SLEET/FZRA. ANTICIPATE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY
ON THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA...ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS. COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF SHOW SHARP
NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ZONAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC ENERGY TEMPORARILY FLATTENS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
WITHIN THIS FLOW ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL BE ALONG OR NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE LOW. WITH
THIS IN MIND...WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND POPS WHICH KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN PAINT 20 TO 30 PERCENT MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
COULD RESULT IN MIXED/FREEZING P-TYPE...BUT WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE
FOR NOW WITH RAIN/SNOW.

ON BALANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY
WITH 850 HPA VALUES ABOVE 0 C...AFTER WHICH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS WITH WIDESPREAD 40S FOR SUNDAY/
MONDAY. GIVEN OUR COLDER THAN NORMAL TRACK RECORD THUS FAR THIS
SEASON...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY BECOMING MVFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. THIS
MAY CAUSE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY
(KGFK). ALSO...EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS
KDVL...KGFK...KTVF THIS AFTERNOON...AND RESULTANT REDUCED VSBY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-
     016-027.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-
     004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 708 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE FORECAST THINKING
FOR TODAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED...OR UPGRADED. AS OF NOW...IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE.

FOR TONIGHT...STILL EXPECT A BREAK IN SNOWFALL AND WINDS TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THEN...A BAND OF SNOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY TWO. SINCE THE
LAST DISCUSSION...HAD A CHANCE TO LOOK MORE IN DETAIL AT THIS
EVENT. THE 06Z GFS INDICATES THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PWATS WILL BE NEAR 0.5 INCH...ALONG WITH
STRONG 850MB FRONTOGENESIS. ALTHOUGH THE HI-RES MODELS
(NAM12...WRF MODELS) MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE PRECIP
PLACEMENT...THEY SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT IDEA REGARDING AMOUNTS.
THEY INDICATE AROUND 0.40 INCHES WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BAND. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850MB
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ADVECT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL...SO THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
(AND POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SOUTH OF THE SNOWFALL). THE
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE IS COMING IN SUPPORTING THE GFS PLACEMENT...SO
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. WILL RAISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WORRY
ABOUT TODAYS HEADLINES BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL HEADLINES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW...AND A FEW
SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 00Z MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT DO DIFFER WITH DETAILS. 00Z NAM IS
FURTHER NORTH/SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS...WILL FOLLOW A ECMWF/GFS
BLEND.

TODAY...THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND AND INCOMING HI-RES MODELS (MPX
WRF...RAP...HRRR) SUGGEST A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
-SN ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2 THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD BE LOWER (12:1-14:1) CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED FORCING
MECHANISM. USING THE FAVORED MODEL QPF BLEND GIVES AROUND 0.10
INCHES...AND EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL (POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES). ANTICIPATE THAT THIS SNOWFALL
WILL OCCUR IN A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD...SO RATES WILL BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING AN ADIABATIC LAYER TO 900MB...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SFC-
925MB WIND DIRECTION...AND 925MB WIND SPEEDS 30-35 KNOTS (POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO OVER 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING). THESE CONDITIONS
USUALLY LEAD TO 25-35 MPH WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY (AND
TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY).
THERE HAS BEEN SOME VERY LIGHT FRESH SNOW THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...AND AT LEAST BLOWING SNOW SEEMS POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY...WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST...AND ANOTHER
INCH OR SO OF FRESH SNOW WILL OCCUR...VISIBILITIES MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED IN BLOWING SNOW (POSSIBLY NEAR BLIZZARD IN
SOME AREAS). CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT A
LONG DURATION OF WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...BUT CERTAINLY A
BRIEF PERIOD ALONG WITH THE FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS THE MORE
FAVORED OPEN AREAS WHEN THERE IS NO FALLING SNOW (FOR
EXAMPLE...THE CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK CORRIDOR). COULD SEE THE
ADVISORY BEING EXPANDED IF WIND SPEEDS ARE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN FA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS
FURTHEST SOUTH WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP...BUT HAS BEEN VERIFYING BEST
LATELY WITH LOCATION OF PRECIP. MESOSCALE FORCING (MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS) IS STRONGER WITH THIS EVENT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CLOSELY. THINKING 1-3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...BUT
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BUT STILL 20-25 MPH. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THIS EVENT AS WELL. 850MB TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING MAY ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
BAND...LEADING TO SLEET/FZRA. ANTICIPATE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY
ON THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA...ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS. COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF SHOW SHARP
NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ZONAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC ENERGY TEMPORARILY FLATTENS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
WITHIN THIS FLOW ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL BE ALONG OR NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE LOW. WITH
THIS IN MIND...WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND POPS WHICH KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN PAINT 20 TO 30 PERCENT MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
COULD RESULT IN MIXED/FREEZING P-TYPE...BUT WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE
FOR NOW WITH RAIN/SNOW.

ON BALANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY
WITH 850 HPA VALUES ABOVE 0 C...AFTER WHICH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS WITH WIDESPREAD 40S FOR SUNDAY/
MONDAY. GIVEN OUR COLDER THAN NORMAL TRACK RECORD THUS FAR THIS
SEASON...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY BECOMING MVFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. THIS
MAY CAUSE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY
(KGFK). ALSO...EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS
KDVL...KGFK...KTVF THIS AFTERNOON...AND RESULTANT REDUCED VSBY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ008-016-027.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

 857 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST/GRIDS THROUGH 18Z TO REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE
PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES HAVE RECENTLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW...GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. GIVEN
THAT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS GENERALLY MARGINAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...WILL GO WITH MAINLY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...BUT INCREASE
GRIDDED POPS UPWARD OF 60 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT VALUES OF LESS THAN
0.05 INCH AND A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A DUSTING TO AROUND
0.5 INCH SNOW ON SOME SURFACES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE FIRST 9
HOURS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TAF PERIOD. THINK WINDS WILL
STAY JUST BELOW AVIATION WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA AT KAMA. CIGS ARE
LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW...BUT KDHT AND KGUY WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TO SEE MVFR BASED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WITH IFR BASES NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. LIGHT PRECIP MAY FALL AT ANY OR ALL OF THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...BUT AREAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

AFTER 06/01Z...WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP AND MAKE THEIR WAY AROUND TO WSW
AND SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY WEAK ECHO RETURNS ON RADAR BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY IS
ACTUALLY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AFTER THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING FRONT VERY WELL WHICH
LEADS TO DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TYPE IF ANY DOES FALL IN
OUR AREA. AM CURRENTLY FAVORING THE HRRR IN THE SHORT-TERM AS IT
SEEMS TO HANDLING THE FRONT THE BEST. GOING WITH THIS THOUGHT
PROCESS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE TODAY MIGHT ACTUALLY BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PAN OUT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER IF PRECIP DOES FALL
NORTH OF A CANADIAN TO DALHART LINE PRECIP TYPE COULD BE A BIT
TRICKIER. AM CURRENTLY GOING WITH A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN MIX AS
MODELS VARY ON HOW LARGE THE WARM NOSE WILL BE. ALL THAT BEING SAID
IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT...NO MATTER
WHAT FORM IT COMES DOWN IN. AFTER THE FRONT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WE WILL RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE ARE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH IT OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AGAIN
PRECIP TYPE MIGHT DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...IF IT MOVES
THROUGH AFTER WE HAVE WARMED UP ENOUGH THE AREA COULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING AND INITIAL PRECIP WOULD BE ALL RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THEN IT
COULD BE A WINTRY MIX THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT. MODELS STILL ARE NOT IN
GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW FAST AND DEEP TO MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA JUST AFTER THIS 7 DAY FORECAST.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DECREASE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/03






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

 543 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE FIRST 9
HOURS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TAF PERIOD. THINK WINDS WILL
STAY JUST BELOW AVIATION WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA AT KAMA. CIGS ARE
LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW...BUT KDHT AND KGUY WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TO SEE MVFR BASED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WITH IFR BASES NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. LIGHT PRECIP MAY FALL AT ANY OR ALL OF THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...BUT AREAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

AFTER 06/01Z...WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP AND MAKE THEIR WAY AROUND TO WSW
AND SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY WEAK ECHO RETURNS ON RADAR BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY IS
ACTUALLY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AFTER THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING FRONT VERY WELL WHICH
LEADS TO DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TYPE IF ANY DOES FALL IN
OUR AREA. AM CURRENTLY FAVORING THE HRRR IN THE SHORT-TERM AS IT
SEEMS TO HANDLING THE FRONT THE BEST. GOING WITH THIS THOUGHT
PROCESS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE TODAY MIGHT ACTUALLY BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PAN OUT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER IF PRECIP DOES FALL
NORTH OF A CANADIAN TO DALHART LINE PRECIP TYPE COULD BE A BIT
TRICKIER. AM CURRENTLY GOING WITH A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN MIX AS
MODELS VARY ON HOW LARGE THE WARM NOSE WILL BE. ALL THAT BEING SAID
IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT...NO MATTER
WHAT FORM IT COMES DOWN IN. AFTER THE FRONT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WE WILL RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE ARE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH IT OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. AGAIN
PRECIP TYPE MIGHT DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...IF IT MOVES
THROUGH AFTER WE HAVE WARMED UP ENOUGH THE AREA COULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING AND INITIAL PRECIP WOULD BE ALL RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THEN IT
COULD BE A WINTRY MIX THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT. MODELS STILL ARE NOT IN
GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW FAST AND DEEP TO MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS.

AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA JUST AFTER THIS 7 DAY FORECAST.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DECREASE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/19







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

 152 PM PST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN MAINLY TO THE SIERRA
AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ON
THURSDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK STORM MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THIS FIRST
STORM TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

IN THE SIERRA, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS
COLD FRONT AND UPPER JET APPROACH. RAIN MAY COME DOWN HEAVY AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE CREST. WITH NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
SOUNDINGS BELOW 700MB - SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH MOST OF
TONIGHT, ABOVE 8000-8500 FEET, LEADING TO SNOW ONLY AT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS. AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 6000-7000 FT RANGE BUT PRECIP IS WINDING DOWN
BY THEN. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY WAVE HELPING REGENERATE
SHOWERS ALONG THE SIERRA NORTH OF MARKLEEVILLE THURSDAY, WITH SOME
LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6500 FT.

WHILE WE EXPECT SHADOWING IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA WITH LIMITED
OBVIOUS FORCING FOR SPILLOVER, THE RECENT HRRR RUNS AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT ECMWF SHOW SOME OCCURRING BETWEEN 3-9Z. WE`RE SIDING
WITH THE MORE SHADOWED SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW, BUT I JUST WANTED TO
NOTE THIS SPILLOVER IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY AND WORTH KEEPING AN
EYE ON.

PERHAPS THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH THIS STORM IS WIND IN THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA. RECENT GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING WINDS
INCREASING TONIGHT AS MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW NEARS 50 KNOTS. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS TONIGHT INTO THE 50-60
MPH RANGE FROM SURPRISE VALLEY TO RENO/MINDEN THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY. BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
ONLY MEDIUM AS PREDICTABILITY OF THESE DOWNSLOPE EVENTS IS
NORMALLY TRICKY AT BEST. EVEN JUST SUBTLE CHANGES IN LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND/OR WIND DIRECTION CAN ALTER THE OUTCOME. BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY, GOOD MIXING AND A SOLID PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
YIELD WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WILL EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY FROM
SURPRISE VALLEY-RENO/MINDEN THROUGH TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
LAKE WIND ADVISORIES WILL ALSO BE POSTED FOR TAHOE/PYRAMID.

WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. FRIDAY/SATURDAY LOOK QUIET. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL
COOL INTO THE 50S (SEASONABLE) BUT THEN WARM INTO THE 60S SATURDAY
AS RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST WE`VE SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK - WITH
UPPER 20S IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS IN THE SIERRA
VALLEYS. CS

.LONG TERM...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH SIERRA SNOWFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NEXT
WEEK. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DRAWING
A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY BUT
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PRECIPITATION ONSET. MAIN CHANGES TO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO DECREASE POPS SUNDAY AND INCREASE
POPS MONDAY TO REFLECT THE DELAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAHOE BASIN INTO
LASSEN COUNTY. THIS LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM SYSTEM WITH SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 8500 FEET SUNDAY FALLING TO 7500 ON MONDAY AS A JET
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS
WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPILL OVER INTO WESTERN NEVADA DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES. STILL SOME MODEST
DISCREPANCIES IN RESOLVING THE SHORTWAVE`S PROGRESSION AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND PUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SHOWERS DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH LOWER FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
AGREE ON A DRIER PERIOD THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT STILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES BEGINNING TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE CUTTING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WHILE THE EC BUILDS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. HAVE
SIDED TOWARDS THE EC AS SEVERAL GEFS MEMBERS KEEP THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AND HAVE KEEP US DRY IN THE FORECAST AS A
RESULT. OVERALL, LOOKING FOR MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA AND BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TUESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS LIKELY
FOR THE SIERRA AS WELL. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS IS
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

FOR RNO/CXP - S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS. DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AT RNO IS
POSSIBLE, 30% CHANCE, WHICH COULD BRING GUSTS ABOVE 40 KTS AND
ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS AT TIMES BETWEEN 4Z-8Z TONIGHT. LLWS AND
TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TONIGHT ON APPROACH/DEPARTURE ROUTES WITH
SLIDE MOUNTAIN (10KFT MSL) FORECAST WINDS OF 50 KTS AND GUSTS TO
75 KTS. THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A SOLID GRADIENT WIND DAY WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS 30-35 KTS. WINDS FORECAST TO SWITCH FROM S/SW TO
W/NW AFTER 18Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN. NO CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED FROM PRECIPITATION AS THE LEE OF SIERRA SHOULD LARGELY BE
SHADOWED THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF SOME SPILLOVER
SHOWERS BETWEEN 4-8Z.

FOR TRK/TVL - WHILE S/SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES, MAIN ISSUE
IS PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS, VSBY, AND MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION
DUE TO RAIN AFTER 3Z TONIGHT. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH
TONIGHT, ABOVE 8000 FT MSL, LEADING TO RAIN AT TRK/TVL. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z/THURSDAY AS STORM IS WINDING
DOWN. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE TURBULENCE AND LLWS IN THE
VICINITY OF BOTH TRK/TVL TONIGHT.

FOR MMH - TERMINAL IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS INCOMING STORM
THOUGH GUSTY W/SW WINDS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
TURBULENCE AND LLWS LIKELY. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
12-18Z/THURSDAY BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION IS A GIVEN THOUGH.

CS



&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PYRAMID
     LAKE IN NVZ004.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY
     NVZ003-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM PST THURSDAY
     FOR LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY CAZ070.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM PST THURSDAY
     FOR LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

 143 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHRAS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM FLL TO PBI TERMINALS...WHICH
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.
OTHERWISE..MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ON THURSDAY...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SSW AHEAD AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014/

UPDATE...
CHANGES ARE NOT PLANNED FOR THE MORNING UPDATES WITH WEATHER
PARAMETERS COMING INTO PLACE AT THIS TIME. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING
SHOWS A MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS REMAINING DRY ABOVE
A SUBSIDENCE CAP STILL PERSISTING AT AROUND 7K. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIS INVERSION LAYER ERODING BY 18Z AND
PWAT INCREASING ABOVE 1.25 INCHES. WHILE THIS IS NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE, IT COULD STILL INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE EAST COAST METRO REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, MAINLY FROM AROUND 19Z TO SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE ONE OR TWO
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FOG IS SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR AND COULD AFFECT KAPF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN TAFS...SO REMOVED MENTION FROM EARLIER
TAF SET. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A VCSH MENTION ALONG THE EAST COAST
SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EST WED MAR 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TODAY. AN EXPECTED SURFACE LOW IS MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
TOMORROW. AS IT DOES, IT WILL INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
LAYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND NORTH FLORIDA. PLUS, THERE IS
A 500MB TROUGH DIGGING AND DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
WILL CAUSE THE SFC LOW TO DEEPEN. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF. THE NAM IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
GFS. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS TO MAKE LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. ALL THE MODELS HAVE THE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND.

NOW, AS FOR HOW THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. FOR TODAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW, WILL WORK TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE. CUMULUS FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY.
SOME OF THE CU IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND MAY
INTERACT WITH A WEAK CONVERGENCE AREA THAT LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE IN
THE LAKE REGION. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS, HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS IN PALM BEACH
COUNTY AND THE LAKE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NAM MODEL SOUNDING FOR PBI SHOWS CAPE AROUND 1700 JOULES, 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KTS, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS, A
FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 12300 FT, LOW 0-3KM STORM REL HELICITY, A
VEERING WINDS PROFILE, PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
WITHIN 2 SD OF NORMAL, AND STORM MOTION OF AROUND 10KTS. THE
700-500MB LAPSE RATE IS AROUND 5.3. THE NAM SOUNDING IS ALSO
SHOWING A STRONG CAP AT AROUND 700 MB THAT COULD HINDER ANY
DEVELOPMENT AT ALL. THE MODELS DO SHOW A 90-100KT JET AT 250MB
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THEY DO DISAGREE WITH THE EXACT
POSITION. HOWEVER, THIS JET COULD GIVE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO
OVERCOME THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON. THE CAP DOES ERODE BY THIS
EVENING, BUT IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO MAXIMIZE CONVECTION TODAY.
ALSO, WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
AS CURRENT PARAMETERS DO NOT FAVOR ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.

GOING FORWARD TO TOMORROW AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES. CAPE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 JOULES. THE
700-500MB LAPSE RATE DOES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 5.7. THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS AROUND 12000FT, AND 500MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -11C. THE WIND
PROFILE IS SLIGHTLY VEERING WITH HEIGHT. 0-3KM HELICITY WILL ONLY
BE AROUND 69. THE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30KTS AND
THE 0-6KM AROUND 45KTS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER 250MB JET, BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE, KEEPING THE AREA
OUT OF THE ENTRANCE OR EXIT REGIONS. THIS MAY LIMIT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ON THURSDAY. ALSO, THERE MAY BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL HAMPER INSOLATION. SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR
SO FLORIDA? BASICALLY IT GIVES THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE GIVEN PARAMETERS, SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG, WITH POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE DUE TO
WIND AND/OR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, BY THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, CONVECTION MAY WANE AS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REDUCE THE
DESTABILIZATION. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE LOW
WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH UNTIL IT EMERGES OVER
THE ATLANTIC, WHICH PUTS THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING, PROBABLY MEANS MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH THE FRONT BRINGING A
LINE OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY EVEN HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OF
COURSE, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW AND WHAT AFFECT CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE ON DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ANY CHANGES IN TIMING AND/OR CONDITIONS COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE CURRENT FORECAST.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A COOLER AIR MASS TO BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR. ALSO, THE DEW POINTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR, IF NOT AT THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURE, WHICH COULD BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND PASSES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR KAPF DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR AND JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS
SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL MODELS KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...SO KEPT
ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

MARINE...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING SOUTHERLY WIND TO SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
IT WILL ALSO CAUSE THE SEAS TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE, BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY, THEN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THEY WILL ALSO INCREASE, CAUSING SEAS TO BUILD
EVEN FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT
IN THE GULF WATERS AND 5 TO 7 FT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE GULF STREAM OFF PALM BEACH. SEAS WILL PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  82  70  80 / 20 60 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  83  72  81 / 20 50 50 20
MIAMI            71  84  71  81 / 20 40 50 20
NAPLES           67  80  67  75 / 20 60 40 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...13/SI
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BOISE ID

 953 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES AFFECTING THE CWA TODAY. ONE IS
MOVING EAST THROUGH WASHINGTON STATE AND IS HELPING TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WHILE A SECOND
IS MOVING EAST THROUGH NRN NV...AND IS HELPING TO DRIVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CWA. HRRR RUNS INDICATE THAT
WAVES OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ALSO...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT PUT
IN A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
JUST ONE OR TWO STRIKES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OREGON LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO INCREASE POPS IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY AND IN SURROUNDING AREAS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR
NOW...WITH THE WATCH BEGINNING AT 11 AM MST TODAY AND GOING
THROUGH 5 AM MST FRIDAY. WE STILL EXPECT OVER AN INCH OF RAIN AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR
2 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS INCREASING THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FOR LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS. SNOW LEVELS INCREASING FROM 5000 FEET
THIS MORNING TO 7500 FEET BY 06Z TONIGHT. EXPECT NUMEROUS MVFR RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP TO 40
KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW AND THE FLOOD WATCH...BOIFFABOI...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICS WILL SHIFT
INTO OUR AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
TODAY...MAINLY IN BAKER COUNTY EAST TO THE UPPER WEISER BASIN AND
BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER AS THE MOISTURE
WILL RIDE OVER A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WHICH STRETCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING THE MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO TAKE AIM ON THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN...THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL RISE DURING THIS TIME...FROM 5500-6500 FEET THIS
MORNING TO 7500-8500 FEET TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...SENDING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. THE FRONT IS STILL TIMED TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST OREGON THURSDAY MORNING AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL BE WINDY AFTER THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH
IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN TODAY WITH SOME
VALLEY HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S. TEMPS WILL BE LOWER /MAINLY IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT/ ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PROGRESSION OF
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
DRYING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS SPREADS INTO EASTERN
OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY PRECIPITATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD
WITH RAIN IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5500
FEET MSL. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MILD...AVERAGING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IDZ011-013-033.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 1158 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

ALTHOUGH ELONGATED AND RATHER NARROW BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCED SNOWS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THE FORCING
DECREASES SOME...THE PROCESS IS SHIFTING SOUTH AND WILL MAINTAIN
ENOUGH FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES TO CONTINUE SOUTH OF
I80 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE AN ADDITIONAL HALF
INCH TO AN INCH BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM JUST SOUTH OF I-80...TO A
FAIRFIELD IA TO MONMOUTH IL LINE. HALF INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF THAT
AREA THOUGH EARLY EVENING. BAND SHOULD REALLY FALL APART AFTER 5
PM CST IN THE SOUTHERN CWA IF THE LATEST HIRES SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT. HAVE RAISED POPS SOUTH OF I80 THOUGH 00Z AND MAY HAVE TO
ADJUST FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.   ..12..

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MO. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS
NEARLY ZONAL OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. AT 00Z S/WS EMBEDDED IN THE
ZONAL FLOW WERE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE HAD SPREAD SNOW INTO THE
NORTHERN CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WAVE...PATCHY SNOW WAS OCCURRING FROM NEBRASKA
INTO WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

FGEN FORCING AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS S/W HAS SET UP THIS MORNING
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHERN IL. IT APPEARS THE BANDED SNOW
WILL STAY OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED OVER NW IL TO AROUND 3 INCHES FOR THE MAX.
WITH THE BANDED NATURE OF THE SNOW THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE HIT
AND MISS SO NOT ALL AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WILL SEE THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS. TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO THE ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE
AND DUBUQUE COUNTIES WHICH ARE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BETTER
FORCING. THE ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED SOON FOR BUCHANAN COUNTY
WHERE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER AN INCH.

MODELS SAG THE FGEN FORCING SOUTH THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN ROCKIES S/W. THEY COUPLE THE FGEN WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA
SUPPORTING A NARROW EAST-WEST BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING NEAR I80
EARLY THIS MORNING AND PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNTS WITH THIS BAND ARE IN
QUESTION AT THIS POINT WITH THE MESO SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING AN
AXIS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG I80 CORRIDOR. THE HRRR PROGS ARE IN
LINE WITH THE HIGHER QPF RAP13 BUT THE HRRR/S LATEST RUN IS
OVERDOING THE AREA AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA.  THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS
QPF/SNOWFALL OVER THE SAME AREA. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
LOW QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS WHICH YIELD A SWATH OF AROUND 1 INCH NEAR I80
FROM THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
TONIGHT SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH TEENS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT
259 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A
PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL AND SOMEWHAT SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW KEEPS ARCTIC
AIR BOTTLED UP WELL TO THE NORTH. A MINOR SETBACK WILL BE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A CANADIAN HIGH...FOLLOWING A FRIDAY/S
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION
KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA BELOW FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND RETURNING
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ON A
PERIOD OF LIFT BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...WHEN LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH OVER SE CANADA AND DEVELOPING FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WILL PRODUCE A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD WARM AT
LEAST UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SW...WHILE A SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO LIGHT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST MAY LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 20S.
FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE NW
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING WITH POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. THIS TIMING SHOULD ALLOW THE PREFRONTAL SW
WINDS TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE FAR SW
POTENTIALLY TOUCHING 50. THE GFS...WITH ITS HIGH MOISTURE BIAS IN
THE LOW LEVELS...WOULD SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH DOES NOT LOOK REALISTIC. WILL INSTEAD KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO POST FRONTAL...OVER THE FAR WEST AND
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW DURING THE DAY...THEN SNOW
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA UNDER AN AXIS OF
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT THAT DROPS INTO CENTRAL IL
AND SOUTHERN MO. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND MAGNITUDE OF FORCING
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN WESTERN CANADA DROPS
SOUTHEAST PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS TIMING...AND FOR NOW...THE MODEL
CONSENSUS REFLECTS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AND HOLDS ONTO
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING...AS
SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE COLDER AIRMASS AND SNOW COVER WILL
RETURN HIGHS TO THE 20S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 30S...WITH LOWS AS
MENTIONED POSSIBLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THERE REMAINS LOW CONSISTENCY IN THE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE FEATURES AMONG MODELS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A WARMING TREND LOOKS LIKELY FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING HIGH
SUNDAY. CONSENSUS HAS HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY...THEN
REACHING THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND POTENTIALLY MUCH WARMER...
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION BASED ON POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIKELY TO AFFECT THE
REGION SOMEWHERE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

SNOW BANDS TO MAKE FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT MLI AND BRL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS AND LIGHTER SNOW
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80. LOWER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER FURTHER NORTH
AT DBQ AND CID THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING...ALONG WITH POCKETS
OF 3-5SM FOG OR HAZE VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES. EAST SFC WINDS OF
10-16KTS TO BACK MORE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND DECREASE. THIS
MAY ALLOW MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR LEVEL FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT IN THE
VCNTY OF ALL TERMINALS. LOW MVFR CIGS AND ANY FOG RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD LIFT BY MID THU MORNING AS SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS INCREASE TO
7-10KTS.    ..12..


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...12
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...12







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 220 PM CST Wed Mar 5 2014

...Update to long term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Enhanced radar returns from the Mosaic radar loop over northeast
Colorado earlier this morning related well to an area of 700mb
frontogenesis at 06z from the the latest RAP, NAM and GFS. Each
Model move this area of frontogenesis across southwest Kansas
between 12z and 21z. In addition the model soundings today
suggested the precipitation type will be mainly snow as this band
of steadier precipitation crosses southwest Kansas. NAM and GFS
however differ slightly on timing with the GFS more progressive
than the NAM. They also differ slightly on a shallow warm layer in
the 875 to 800mb layer which if the warmer NAM is more correct
would support a chance for sleet at times. At this time will
continue to mention of mix of sleet and snow given uncertainty of
this warm layer and based on the latest RAP have trended more
towards progressive GFS on timing of the steadier precipitation.
Given the more progressive solution the precipitation will end
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Clouds will also
begin to decrease from northwest to southeast late in the day
based subsidence and drier air developing in the wake of an upper
level trough as it crosses western Kansas between 18z Wednesday
and 00z Thursday. With some breaks of sun possible by late day in
far western/west Central Kansas will trend towards the warmer
MET/MAV guidance for highs while further east favor the cooler NAM
2 meter temps. Given how progressive this system is expected today
will continue to favor snowfall amounts of 1 inch or less,
however if a band of the steadier precipitation persists longer in
one area, like what the NAM suggests between 18z and 21z, then a few
locations may have totals of up to 2 inches. Still given this snow
amounts will be below advisory criteria.

Tonight a surface ridge axis will cross south central Kansas as
surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies.
Southwest winds developing across much of western Kansas early
tonight may limit how cold temperatures will be early Thursday
morning so will continue to favor temperatures bottoming in the 20
to 25 degree range across far western and West central Kansas.
Further east, near the surface ridge axis, will lower temperatures
back to around 15 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Thursday Night:

For Thursday evening, lee-side troughing will continue ahead of
the next fropa. Southerly winds are expected for the overnight
hours, which will keep minimums up and in the 30sF. The warmest is
expected across far southwest Kansas near Elkhart where the
strongest downslope component to the wind vector is expected.

Friday/Friday night:

The forecast becomes a bit more interesting in the wake of the
fropa Friday night and into Saturday. A broad upper level trof
will move across the region through the evening. Cold air
advection will begin by late evening. Top down/warm layer aloft
suggest that the event will start out as rain and then transition
to all snow by Saturday morning. ECMWF/GEM/GEFS are coming in lower
with snowfall amounts than previous runs. Probably attributed to
the broad/progressive nature of the trof and the lack of richer
boundary layer moisture. Still, cannot rule out a few inches or
perhaps a borderline advisory event. Highs will be in the 50s and
lows mainly in the 20s.

Saturday and beyond:

The main synoptic wave will move east with a quasi-zonal flow
becoming established by Monday. The net result is moderating
temperatures and weak lee troughing. As nice warm up is possible
next Monday in the warm sector, followed by cooling with another
fropa.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

For a couple of hours, there will be light snow, cigs down around
bkn010, and vsbys down to as low as 2sm in -sn.  There is a thin
25-mile wide band of light to moderate snow following an upper
level axis of a low pressure trough moving east across Kansas.
Then there will be a 4 to 6 hour period of 080-100 foot cigs,
before winds will drop off and skies will begin to clear for the
overnight period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  19  53  34  52 /   0   0   0  30
GCK  23  63  34  51 /   0   0   0  40
EHA  28  66  41  56 /   0   0   0  40
LBL  23  63  38  56 /   0   0   0  30
HYS  19  53  31  49 /   0   0   0  30
P28  14  52  30  56 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burke
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 210 PM CST Wed Mar 5 2014

...Update to cancel advisory and trim precipitation coverage...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

The upper trough is moving slightly quicker than previously
thought. Canceled the WSW Winter Weather Advisory at 12:40 PM.
Also moved the back edge of precipitation quite a bit east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Enhanced radar returns from the Mosaic radar loop over northeast
Colorado earlier this morning related well to an area of 700mb
frontogenesis at 06z from the the latest RAP, NAM and GFS. Each
Model move this area of frontogenesis across southwest Kansas
between 12z and 21z. In addition the model soundings today
suggested the precipitation type will be mainly snow as this band
of steadier precipitation crosses southwest Kansas. NAM and GFS
however differ slightly on timing with the GFS more progressive
than the NAM. They also differ slightly on a shallow warm layer in
the 875 to 800mb layer which if the warmer NAM is more correct
would support a chance for sleet at times. At this time will
continue to mention of mix of sleet and snow given uncertainty of
this warm layer and based on the latest RAP have trended more
towards progressive GFS on timing of the steadier precipitation.
Given the more progressive solution the precipitation will end
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Clouds will also
begin to decrease from northwest to southeast late in the day
based subsidence and drier air developing in the wake of an upper
level trough as it crosses western Kansas between 18z Wednesday
and 00z Thursday. With some breaks of sun possible by late day in
far western/west Central Kansas will trend towards the warmer
MET/MAV guidance for highs while further east favor the cooler NAM
2 meter temps. Given how progressive this system is expected today
will continue to favor snowfall amounts of 1 inch or less,
however if a band of the steadier precipitation persists longer in
one area, like what the NAM suggests between 18z and 21z, then a few
locations may have totals of up to 2 inches. Still given this snow
amounts will be below advisory criteria.

Tonight a surface ridge axis will cross south central Kansas as
surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies.
Southwest winds developing across much of western Kansas early
tonight may limit how cold temperatures will be early Thursday
morning so will continue to favor temperatures bottoming in the 20
to 25 degree range across far western and West central Kansas.
Further east, near the surface ridge axis, will lower temperatures
back to around 15 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

The GFS/GEM/UKMET were generally accepted over the ECMWF in regards
to the next upper level system to affect western Kansas Friday and
Saturday. The associated cold front will progress through western Kansas
Friday, with upper level energy hanging back over the southern Rockies
Friday night, and then slowly progressing southeastward in positively
tiled fashion by Saturday. This is certainly far from an ideal
prescription for a significant precipitation event given the lack of
low level baroclinic development, with post frontal cold advection
dominating. There is a small chance of rain late Friday and Friday
evening before a changeover to snow occurs later Friday night.
Some accumulation of snow is possible by midday Saturday before the
precipitation shuts off.

After the aforementioned upper level system moves southward into
Texas on Sunday, upper level ridging will develop over the central
high plains, with lee trough formation over the high plains. This
will lead to southwesterly boundary layer winds and warmer
temperatures for Sunday into Monday. Temperatures may even reach
70 on Monday.

Yet another upper level system will approach the central and southern
high plains by Tuesday or Tuesday night, along with cooler air and
another chance of rain or snow in the wake of the surface cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

For a couple of hours, there will be light snow, cigs down around
bkn010, and vsbys down to as low as 2sm in -sn.  There is a thin
25-mile wide band of light to moderate snow following an upper
level axis of a low pressure trough moving east across Kansas.
Then there will be a 4 to 6 hour period of 080-100 foot cigs,
before winds will drop off and skies will begin to clear for the
overnight period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  19  53  35  56 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  23  63  35  53 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  28  66  40  55 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  23  63  38  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  19  53  33  51 /   0   0   0  10
P28  14  52  34  55 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burke
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...Burke







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1113 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 509 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

HAVE DONE A COUPLE OF UPDATES ALREADY. PRECIPITATION IS ENDING MUCH
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. SO HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST POPS
TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW. SO HAVE A MIXTURE OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW DURING THIS WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.. SINCE CLEARING IS OCCURRING ALREADY IN THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA...FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS HAVING ANY KIND OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
OUTPUT BUT I DIGRESS. WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THIS MORNING...IF ANY...AND THE PHASE OF THAT
PRECIPITATION...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING ON FRIDAY...AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT STILL
PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH WITH ONE MOVING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
ANOTHER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG PV ANOMALIES
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.

AIR MASS WARMED CONSIDERABLY OVER YESTERDAY BUT ANOTHER FRONT MOVED
THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO TAKE AWAY THAT WARMING. AT JET LEVEL...
MODELS HAVING A LOT OF TROUBLE HERE. THEY ARE EITHER UNDERDOING WIND
SPEEDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND JET NOSING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN OR HAVE THE POSITION OF THOSE JETS CORRECTLY. AT MID LEVELS...
THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS INITIALIZED TOO COLD TO OUR NORTH. THE
CANADIAN WAS DOING BEST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SINCE AROUND 06Z RADAR HAS SHOWN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO/THROUGH AREA INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. 00Z NAM...03Z RUC AND EARLIER HRRR KEPT THE AREA NEARLY
DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INDICATED. HOWEVER
LATER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD MORE PRECIPITATION BUT KEPT MOST OF IT
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO STATELINE. 06Z RUN HAS CAUGHT ONTO
WHAT THE RADAR IS SHOWING AND IS SHOWING A NICE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING ACROSS.

ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER JET SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. DESPITE INITIAL
ANALYSIS PROBLEMS...THE MODELS DO TAKE A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
ACROSS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. BY 18Z LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF NORTH
TO SOUTH JET LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST BY 00Z. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. ALL THIS IS CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY AND
CONSIDERING WHAT RADAR AND REALITY ARE SHOWING...MADE NO CHANGES TO
THE POPS THIS MORNING. ALSO HAVE BEEN GETTING A MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. LOOKS LIKE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THIS LOOKS CAPTURED
REASONABLY WITH THE GRIDS AND ALSO DID NOT CHANGE.

MODEL DIFFERENCE IN HOW COLD OR WARM TO MAKE IT TODAY. LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION. MAJORITY
OF THE DATA SUPPORTED GOING MORE ON THE WARMER SIDE. SO ENDED UP
ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE WHAT IS
CAPTURING REALITY AT THIS TIME. DID ADJUST DOWN A LITTLE BIT
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL HAVE THE CLOUDS LONGEST.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL LATELY DUE TO NOT HAVING THE SNOWFIELD
CAPTURED CORRECTLY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND WHAT HAS BEEN
DOING BEST IN THE NON-SNOW COVERED AREAS SUPPORTED CURRENT KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH EITHER VERY LATE
IN THE NIGHT OR EARLY THE MORNING ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES FOR
THIS PERIOD AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND ALMOST LOOK LIKE A SPAGHETTI
PLOT. MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...SPECIFICALLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO BREAK OFF THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF THE TROUGH. MODELS LOOK LIKE THEY DIVE A STRONGER JET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SO THAT GENERAL SCENARIO LOOKS
REASONABLE. AS IT LOOKS NOW THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WHERE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS IT.

DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES BEING SO GREAT AND THE GENERAL IDEA OF WHAT
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MATCHES WITH THE FORECAST...WHICH ALSO MATCHES
UP WELL WITH THIS PATTERN AND WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON...WILL NOT
CHANGE THE POPS AND WEATHER. ALTHOUGH COULD SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEING LESS CONSIDERING THE TREND OF THE MODELS BEING FURTHER
WEST. FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT GOES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. DID LOWER THE
MAXES SOME CONSIDERING THIS BUT COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL AMOUNT OF
COOLING NEEDED. ALSO WITH THE GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE 3
HOUR PRESSURE RISES THAT MOVE ACROSS BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS LOOK TO
BE IN THE WINDY CATEGORY.

THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW WILL END EARLY SATURDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS
TO THE EAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON REPRESENTATION OF THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THAT
PERIOD. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN A RATHER STRONG KICKER BEHIND THE
INITIAL WAVE...BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH KICKER. CANNOT JUSTIFY
MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. IT SHOULD HOWEVER COOL
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

GLD WILL TRANSITION FROM IFR THROUGH MVFR TO VFR BETWEEN 18Z-20Z
AS LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF. AFTER 20Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AFTER 03Z AND INCREASE TO OVER 10 KTS AFTER
14Z THURSDAY MORNING.

MCK WILL START OUT MVFR AND WILL BECOME VFR BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND SUNSET TRANSITIONING SLOWLY TO LIGHT
SOUTHWEST BY 14Z THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JDK
AVIATION...LOCKHART







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 1123 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2014

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Enhanced radar returns from the Mosaic radar loop over northeast
Colorado earlier this morning related well to an area of 700mb
frontogenesis at 06z from the the latest RAP, NAM and GFS. Each
Model move this area of frontogenesis across southwest Kansas
between 12z and 21z. In addition the model soundings today
suggested the precipitation type will be mainly snow as this band
of steadier precipitation crosses southwest Kansas. NAM and GFS
however differ slightly on timing with the GFS more progressive
than the NAM. They also differ slightly on a shallow warm layer in
the 875 to 800mb layer which if the warmer NAM is more correct
would support a chance for sleet at times. At this time will
continue to mention of mix of sleet and snow given uncertainty of
this warm layer and based on the latest RAP have trended more
towards progressive GFS on timing of the steadier precipitation.
Given the more progressive solution the precipitation will end
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Clouds will also
begin to decrease from northwest to southeast late in the day
based subsidence and drier air developing in the wake of an upper
level trough as it crosses western Kansas between 18z Wednesday
and 00z Thursday. With some breaks of sun possible by late day in
far western/west Central Kansas will trend towards the warmer
MET/MAV guidance for highs while further east favor the cooler NAM
2 meter temps. Given how progressive this system is expected today
will continue to favor snowfall amounts of 1 inch or less,
however if a band of the steadier precipitation persists longer in
one area, like what the NAM suggests between 18z and 21z, then a few
locations may have totals of up to 2 inches. Still given this snow
amounts will be below advisory criteria.

Tonight a surface ridge axis will cross south central Kansas as
surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies.
Southwest winds developing across much of western Kansas early
tonight may limit how cold temperatures will be early Thursday
morning so will continue to favor temperatures bottoming in the 20
to 25 degree range across far western and West central Kansas.
Further east, near the surface ridge axis, will lower temperatures
back to around 15 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

The GFS/GEM/UKMET were generally accepted over the ECMWF in regards
to the next upper level system to affect western Kansas Friday and
Saturday. The associated cold front will progress through western Kansas
Friday, with upper level energy hanging back over the southern Rockies
Friday night, and then slowly progressing southeastward in positively
tiled fashion by Saturday. This is certainly far from an ideal
prescription for a significant precipitation event given the lack of
low level baroclinic development, with post frontal cold advection
dominating. There is a small chance of rain late Friday and Friday
evening before a changeover to snow occurs later Friday night.
Some accumulation of snow is possible by midday Saturday before the
precipitation shuts off.

After the aforementioned upper level system moves southward into
Texas on Sunday, upper level ridging will develop over the central
high plains, with lee trough formation over the high plains. This
will lead to southwesterly boundary layer winds and warmer
temperatures for Sunday into Monday. Temperatures may even reach
70 on Monday.

Yet another upper level system will approach the central and southern
high plains by Tuesday or Tuesday night, along with cooler air and
another chance of rain or snow in the wake of the surface cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

For a couple of hours, there will be light snow, cigs down around
bkn010, and vsbys down to as low as 2sm in -sn.  There is a thin
25-mile wide band of light to moderate snow following an upper
level axis of a low pressure trough moving east across Kansas.
Then there will be a 4 to 6 hour period of 080-100 foot cigs,
before winds will drop off and skies will begin to clear for the
overnight period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  19  57  35 /  70   0   0   0
GCK  35  23  63  35 /  70   0   0   0
EHA  41  28  66  40 /  40   0   0   0
LBL  38  23  63  38 /  30   0   0   0
HYS  32  19  56  33 /  80   0   0   0
P28  38  14  52  34 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 1 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ030-
031-043>045.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...Burke







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

 1240 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
PRODUCING CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF YORK COUNTY MAINE WESTWARD INTO NH. SNOW SHOWERS WITH
SCT EMBEDDED SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW
HAMPSHIRE...AND MAY CROSS OVER THE MAINE BORDER FROM TIME TO TIME
LATER ON.

945 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST HANDLING THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
WELL. FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE BLENDED IN LATEST HRRR AND RAP TO THE
GOING POP FORECAST TO BETTER CAPTURE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND ACROSS NH THIS AFTN. COULD SEE LOCAL 1 TO 2
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON IN A N-S LINE IN NH THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH INVERTED SFC REFLECTION.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUSLY...

UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
SNFL IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY SLIPPING S. SRN ZONES COULD SEE A FEW
MORE HOURS -SN...BUT QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND TOTALS WILL AMOUNT TO
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FRESH ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY SINK
SWD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THOUGH FORCING ISN/T OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...INTENSE THERMAL PACKING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHSN AS IT MARCHES SWD. MAY SEE OCCASIONAL
BANDS OF MORE STEADY SNFL AS IT DOES SO...AS IS SEEN ATTM FROM
KIZG TO KWVL. POCKETS OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT QPF...THUS
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE SNFL. AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...FOCUSED ON THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA
AND IN THE MTNS OF NH. LATE TODAY A STRONGER S/WV WILL CROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME STRONGER LIFT. HOWEVER DRYING ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN BY THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC FNT CONTINUES TO SAG THRU THE CWFA TONIGHT INTO THU. EXPECT
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM N TO S. AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME VERY COLD TEMPS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN VALLEYS...WHILE SRN
ZONES MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE FOR IDEAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CREST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HEADING OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. ALL
MODELS WITHIN THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WELL WEST OF THIS
SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT FOCUSED
CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTLINE.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM CANADA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MORE SIGNIFICANT
EAST COAST STORM AROUND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL TO BE
DETERMINED IF SUFFICIENT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE AROUND TO ALLOW
FOR SNOW...OR A COLD RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE SHORT
TERM. SCT SHSN WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ALONG SAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT WILL BE TEMPO IN NATURE. ONLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE INVOF KHIE WHERE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OF LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FNT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS THRU THE DAY. CAA
BEHIND THE FNT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS
ON THE OUTER WATERS. EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

 952 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
MILD START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ZONES...WITH 20S OVER THE EAST. MILD DAY TODAY LOOKS
GOOD EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS GRAB
ONTO A SHORTWAVE AND SWING IT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WE GO INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE GFS PAINTS SOME QPF NORTH AND EAST
OF BILLINGS DURING THIS PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS ON THE MILD
SIDE WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE 4C. RAISED POPS AND
WENT WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX.

NOW FOR WIND THREAT AT LIVINGSTON...MODELS PLACE 55KTS INTO PARK
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOES INCREASE THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ON THE UNSTABLE
SIDE AND THUS DO NOT THINK GAP FLOW WILL BE REALIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG 700MB WINDS ARE A CONCERN...BUT GENERAL ASCENT
IS PROGGED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE MOVING ACROSS. WILL
WATCH THINGS CLOSELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
WITH THE WINDS. MAY NEED AN ADVISORY THIS EVENING AS THE LEE
TROUGH TIGHTENS UP. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU THANKS TO THE EASTWARD PUSH
OF A WARM PACIFIC AIR MASS UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

TODAY...WE ARE CARRYING SOME PATCHY FOG IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MT
THROUGH 15 UTC...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON CARRYING LOW POPS OVER
THAT AREA THIS MORNING SINCE RADAR ECHOES ARE SPARSE/WEAK AS OF 10
UTC. PLUS...THE HRRR /WHICH CAPTURES THE CURRENT RADAR ECHOES/ HAS
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DISSIPATING BY ABOUT 14 UTC AS A WEAK WAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT ACTIVITY HEADS EAST. VERY WARM AIR AT 850 HPA
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH VALUES BY LATE
AFTERNOON FROM +7 TO +11 C. WE ONCE AGAIN BUILT OUR FORECAST HIGHS
USING MOSTLY THE 00 UTC BIAS-CORRECTED...MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IT
DID WELL ON TUE...SO WE HAVE LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THAT IT WILL
NOT PERFORM WELL AGAIN AS THE SNOWFIELD CONTINUES TO COMPACT/MELT.
THIS MEANS HIGHS ARE WELL INTO THE 40S F AGAIN...WITH 50S F ACROSS
HIGHER AND MORE EXPOSED RIDGES /SIMILAR TO TUE/. WE ACTUALLY ENDED
UP CARRYING SOME LOW POPS THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY SOUTHEASTWARD
TO ROUNDUP AND BILLINGS...MAINLY IN RESPECT TO THE 06 UTC GFS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AT LIVINGSTON THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
PEAK SPEEDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN BOTH THE LOW-LEVEL
HEIGHT GRADIENT AND ISALLOBARIC WINDS DRIVEN BY PRESSURE FALLS ARE
WELL-LINKED. STILL...WE CHOSE TO CARRY GUSTS TO 55 MPH FOR NOW AND
HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STABILITY
AT MOUNTAIN-TOP LEVEL WILL BE MARGINAL FOR STRONG GAP FLOW. WE ARE
ALSO UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE BACKGROUND PATTERN /WHICH MAY BE OFF JUST
A BIT FROM A CLASSIC EVENT/...WHICH IS A QUESTION MARK THAT/S ALSO
BORNE OUT BY CIPS ANALOG PROBABILITIES FOR 50+ KT GUSTS /WHICH ARE
ONLY NEAR 10 PERCENT/. OTHERWISE...SOME SHOWER CHANCES ARE CARRIED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH RELATIVELY HIGHER /30 TO 40
PERCENT/ POPS FROM BILLINGS TO ROUNDUP AND HYSHAM AFTER 06 UTC. IT
WILL ALSO BE A MILD NIGHT...AND IF CLOUDS ARE THICK...OUR FORECAST
LOWS /WHICH ARE MAINLY IN THE 30S OR LOWER 40S/ COULD BE TOO COLD.

BY THU...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A 500-HPA SHORT
WAVE...AND THE NAEFS-BASED ANOMALY DATA REMAINS LOCKED INTO A GOOD
SIGNAL FOR STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT AS ITS INTEGRATED WATER
VAPOR VALUES SHOW A RETURN INTERVAL OF 10 TO 30 YEARS /CONSIDERING
OTHER EVENTS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR/. THUS...WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE
POPS OVER MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND ARE STILL EXPECTING A
GOOD 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THU NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MILD ON THU WITH HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 40S AND PROBABLY
50S F IN MANY CASES...THOUGH THICK CLOUDS COULD END UP HOLDING THE
HIGHS BACK A BIT MORE THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. SCHULTZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW.
MODELS INDICATING PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING INTO MONTANA BUT OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MINIMAL. COLD
FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL SET UP A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MONTANA. SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S BOTH DAYS. UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA WHICH WILL BRING GAP FLOW WINDS TO LIVINGSTON AND
THE NYE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN WASHINGTON STATE. THE STRONGEST ENERGY
WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF SC/SE MT BUT SOME WEAKER ENERGY AND
MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH GIVING US A CHANCE OF SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES SLIP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE KLVM REGION AFTER 18Z TODAY WHICH WILL MAY BRING A FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR TO THAT REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN ROUTES...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KLVM WITH
GUSTS OVER 35 KTS COMMON. AREAS OF OBSCURATION ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TODAY DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. STC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049 039/050 027/040 026/051 032/058 036/052 029/047
    2/W 34/W    33/W    11/U    01/N    12/W    22/W
LVM 049 040/052 028/045 025/049 032/057 035/052 027/045
    2/W 56/W    43/W    21/U    11/N    22/W    22/W
HDN 054 036/050 025/039 024/050 029/058 035/055 029/049
    2/W 34/W    33/W    11/U    00/B    12/W    12/W
MLS 045 029/044 018/031 019/046 029/054 034/051 028/047
    1/B 24/W    22/J    11/B    00/B    12/W    12/W
4BQ 047 030/049 022/037 022/048 028/059 034/055 028/048
    0/B 24/W    32/W    11/B    00/B    12/W    12/W
BHK 045 025/043 015/028 015/041 026/051 029/048 024/042
    0/B 13/W    22/J    11/B    00/B    12/W    11/B
SHR 051 032/056 026/044 023/052 028/061 032/055 027/046
    0/B 13/W    43/W    21/U    00/B    12/W    13/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 1214 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO BLIZZARD WARNING THIS AFTN AND EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY. FRESH POWDER AND WINDS INCREASING TO
25 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB
DEVELOPS THIS AFTN WILL BE ENOUGH FOR GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN OPEN COUNTRY. A BRIEF BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME ADDING TO THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. WINTER
WX ADVY FOR THE REMAINING AREA NORTH OF HWY 200 WITH SOME BLOWING
SNOW CONCERNS THOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE AND DURATION WILL BE LESS AS
LITTLE TO NO NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED.

DID GO AHEAD WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR THE SAME AREA
4Z TO 12Z WITH THE NEXT WAVE AND ITS POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN AND ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

STATUS QUO FOR THIS UPDATE. GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS INDUCING SOME BLOWING SNOW
THIS AFTN AND EVENING COUPLED WITH A ROUND OF WAA SNOW. SOME
CONCERN WITH EXTENT OF COVERAGE OF BLOWING SNOW AND WILL MONITOR
TO SEE IF WNTR WX ADVSY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE FORECAST THINKING
FOR TODAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED...OR UPGRADED. AS OF NOW...IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE.

FOR TONIGHT...STILL EXPECT A BREAK IN SNOWFALL AND WINDS TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THEN...A BAND OF SNOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY TWO. SINCE THE
LAST DISCUSSION...HAD A CHANCE TO LOOK MORE IN DETAIL AT THIS
EVENT. THE 06Z GFS INDICATES THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIP ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PWATS WILL BE NEAR 0.5 INCH...ALONG WITH
STRONG 850MB FRONTOGENESIS. ALTHOUGH THE HI-RES MODELS
(NAM12...WRF MODELS) MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE PRECIP
PLACEMENT...THEY SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT IDEA REGARDING AMOUNTS.
THEY INDICATE AROUND 0.40 INCHES WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BAND. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 850MB
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ADVECT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL...SO THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
(AND POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SOUTH OF THE SNOWFALL). THE
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE IS COMING IN SUPPORTING THE GFS PLACEMENT...SO
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. WILL RAISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WORRY
ABOUT TODAYS HEADLINES BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL HEADLINES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW...AND A FEW
SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. 00Z MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT DO DIFFER WITH DETAILS. 00Z NAM IS
FURTHER NORTH/SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS...WILL FOLLOW A ECMWF/GFS
BLEND.

TODAY...THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND AND INCOMING HI-RES MODELS (MPX
WRF...RAP...HRRR) SUGGEST A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
-SN ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2 THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD BE LOWER (12:1-14:1) CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED FORCING
MECHANISM. USING THE FAVORED MODEL QPF BLEND GIVES AROUND 0.10
INCHES...AND EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL (POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES). ANTICIPATE THAT THIS SNOWFALL
WILL OCCUR IN A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD...SO RATES WILL BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING AN ADIABATIC LAYER TO 900MB...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SFC-
925MB WIND DIRECTION...AND 925MB WIND SPEEDS 30-35 KNOTS (POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO OVER 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING). THESE CONDITIONS
USUALLY LEAD TO 25-35 MPH WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY (AND
TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY).
THERE HAS BEEN SOME VERY LIGHT FRESH SNOW THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...AND AT LEAST BLOWING SNOW SEEMS POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY...WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST...AND ANOTHER
INCH OR SO OF FRESH SNOW WILL OCCUR...VISIBILITIES MAY BE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED IN BLOWING SNOW (POSSIBLY NEAR BLIZZARD IN
SOME AREAS). CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT A
LONG DURATION OF WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...BUT CERTAINLY A
BRIEF PERIOD ALONG WITH THE FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS THE MORE
FAVORED OPEN AREAS WHEN THERE IS NO FALLING SNOW (FOR
EXAMPLE...THE CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK CORRIDOR). COULD SEE THE
ADVISORY BEING EXPANDED IF WIND SPEEDS ARE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN FA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS
FURTHEST SOUTH WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP...BUT HAS BEEN VERIFYING BEST
LATELY WITH LOCATION OF PRECIP. MESOSCALE FORCING (MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS) IS STRONGER WITH THIS EVENT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CLOSELY. THINKING 1-3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...BUT
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BUT STILL 20-25 MPH. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THIS EVENT AS WELL. 850MB TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING MAY ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
BAND...LEADING TO SLEET/FZRA. ANTICIPATE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY
ON THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA...ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS. COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF SHOW SHARP
NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ZONAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC ENERGY TEMPORARILY FLATTENS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
WITHIN THIS FLOW ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL BE ALONG OR NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE LOW. WITH
THIS IN MIND...WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND POPS WHICH KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN PAINT 20 TO 30 PERCENT MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
COULD RESULT IN MIXED/FREEZING P-TYPE...BUT WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE
FOR NOW WITH RAIN/SNOW.

ON BALANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY
WITH 850 HPA VALUES ABOVE 0 C...AFTER WHICH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS WITH WIDESPREAD 40S FOR SUNDAY/
MONDAY. GIVEN OUR COLDER THAN NORMAL TRACK RECORD THUS FAR THIS
SEASON...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM  CST WED MAR 5 2014

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO 35KT AT TIMES IN THE VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE VSBYS TO FALL INTO THE IFR
RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES WHEN SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT AND SHIFT MORE
WESTERLY...WITH IFR/MFVR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH CIGS AND SOME SNOW/MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006-014-
     015-024-026-028>030.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-027-054.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ007-008-016-
     027-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ002-005-
     006-008-013>015.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR MNZ001-004-007.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...DK









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

 357 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AND WILL FOR THE MOST PART DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE VERY CONSISTENT HRRR ON THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE RAINFALL WITH MOST AMOUNTS AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THE RAIN SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 08-09Z. WHILE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...TEMPERATURES
BELOW 900 MILLIBARS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY AND DURATION WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO COOL THIS LAYER
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. THUS AN ALL LIQUID EVENT
SHOULD BE THE RULE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR TOWARDS
SUNRISE WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN
SOME PLACES BY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. BY FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD FINALLY BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN A COLD RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. A QUICK WARMUP WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME PLACES POSSIBLY PUSHING THE 80
DEGREE MARK BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR A
BIT BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO OCCUR AT
THIS TIME AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

GENERALLY WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH GUIDANCE LOWS LOOKING MORE
REASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   29  53  32  65 /  80  10   0   0
FSM   33  56  31  65 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   32  55  33  65 /  60  10   0   0
BVO   26  53  28  65 /  70  10   0   0
FYV   30  53  28  63 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   29  53  30  63 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   31  55  32  65 /  60  10   0   0
MIO   28  53  30  63 /  50  10   0   0
F10   30  55  34  65 /  80  10   0   0
HHW   33  56  32  65 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

 1114 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K
FEET. A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE LIKELY FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP THEM IN CHECK HOWEVER... AND CURRENT FORECAST MAXIMUMS
CONTINUE TO APPEAR REASONABLE. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME CONCERNS THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ABOUT 21Z BEING THE EARLIEST THAT SHOWERS
COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. THIS IS
CURRENTLY WHAT WE HAVE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME... EVERYTHING ELSE
IN THE FORECAST ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK SO WILL NOT UPDATE THIS
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR CIGS STRETCH ALONG THE ARK RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND ARE
OOZING TOWARD THE TULSA METRO SO I HAVE INSERTED SOME TEMPO GROUPS
TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY. MVFR FOG IS ALSO AFFECTING THE ARK RIVER
SITES. BOTH IMPACTS TO AVIATION SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BEYOND THAT. INCREASING MID CLOUD BY
AROUND 00Z WITH APPROACHING UPPER WAVE...WITH SOME RASN POTENTIAL
ACROSS ERN OK.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL GET A FAIRLY WARM
START TO THE DAY THANKS TO A HEALTHY DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH A LATER START TO ANY
AFTERNOON/EVENING PRECIP...WILL LEAD TO WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TRENDED WARMER...THEY STILL GENERALLY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR WET SNOW TONIGHT WITH NEGLIGIBLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WILL BE THE
WARMEST SINCE MARCH BEGAN. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER FROM SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
A STRONGER PUSH OF THE TRAILING SURFACE HIGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS JUST BEYOND
THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE VERY WARM...APPROACHING 70 DEGREES IN AT LEAST A FEW SPOTS
BOTH DAYS. THIS FORECAST MAY EVEN BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL SO
THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF FRONTAL
TIMING AND PRECEDING WIND DIRECTION TRENDS CONTINUE TO LOOK AS
FAVORABLE AS THEY DO NOW.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

 1057 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES AHEAD
OF YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP THEM IN CHECK HOWEVER... AND CURRENT FORECAST MAXIMUMS
CONTINUE TO APPEAR REASONABLE. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME CONCERNS THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ABOUT 21Z BEING THE EARLIEST THAT SHOWERS
COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. THIS IS
CURRENTLY WHAT WE HAVE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME... EVERYTHING ELSE
IN THE FORECAST ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK SO WILL NOT UPDATE THIS
MORNING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR CIGS STRETCH ALONG THE ARK RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND ARE
OOZING TOWARD THE TULSA METRO SO I HAVE INSERTED SOME TEMPO GROUPS
TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY. MVFR FOG IS ALSO AFFECTING THE ARK RIVER
SITES. BOTH IMPACTS TO AVIATION SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BEYOND THAT. INCREASING MID CLOUD BY
AROUND 00Z WITH APPROACHING UPPER WAVE...WITH SOME RASN POTENTIAL
ACROSS ERN OK.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL GET A FAIRLY WARM
START TO THE DAY THANKS TO A HEALTHY DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH A LATER START TO ANY
AFTERNOON/EVENING PRECIP...WILL LEAD TO WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE TRENDED WARMER...THEY STILL GENERALLY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR WET SNOW TONIGHT WITH NEGLIGIBLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WILL BE THE
WARMEST SINCE MARCH BEGAN. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER FROM SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
A STRONGER PUSH OF THE TRAILING SURFACE HIGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS JUST BEYOND
THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE VERY WARM...APPROACHING 70 DEGREES IN AT LEAST A FEW SPOTS
BOTH DAYS. THIS FORECAST MAY EVEN BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL SO
THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF FRONTAL
TIMING AND PRECEDING WIND DIRECTION TRENDS CONTINUE TO LOOK AS
FAVORABLE AS THEY DO NOW.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LUBBOCK TX

 333 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS
BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERS
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BUT SHOULD DRAW TO A CLOSE BEFORE SUNSET.
THERE STILL ARE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW BUT EXPECT THESE TO CLEAR OFF BY LATER TONIGHT.  BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS...FOG...OR A HEAVY FROST  AS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  MODELS ARE
KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN STEP WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND AREAS THAT
DID RECEIVE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A BIT OF EXTRA MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND ALONG WITH THE EXTRA MOISTURE
USUALLY FAVORS LOW CLOUDS OR FOG BUT THIS MAY ALSO BRING ABOUT A
PRETTY HEAVY FROST FOR SOME AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER.
HARD TO TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN AS THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH BOUNCE AROUND
THE LOCATION OF WHERE REDUCED VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP.  WENT AHEAD
AND LEFT MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED
TO BE EVALUATED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER BUT STILL ONLY A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  WIND WILL TAKE A WHILE
TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT SHOULD DO SO EARLIER ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THAN THE ROLLING PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR 70 WHILE THE ROLLING
PLAINS REMAINS A BIT COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  STREAM OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ON WV/HIGH CLOUDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOULD
ARRIVE TOMORROW MORNING...ALSO HELPING TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING UP TOO MUCH DURING THE DAY.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...

FLATTENED UA RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD IN COMBINATION WITH THE RETURN
OF SFC LEE TROUGHING AND SFC SRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORM
TEMPS TO ROUND OUT THE END OF THE WEEK /70S/. ABL MIXING TO AOA 600
MB SUGGESTS AFTN W-SW WIND SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH...WHICH IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG GIVEN WIND SPEEDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY TAMED. DUE TO THE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO A BREEZY COLD
FRONT EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...DRIVEN BY
A 1030 MB SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES OF
7-10 MB PER 3 HRS SUGGEST NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH /TEMPS TO
COOL INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW 50S ON SATURDAY/. CONCURRENTLY...AN
OPEN WAVE UA DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ITS EXACT TRACK. THE
DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN TO EITHER MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD /PER THE NAM/
OR BREAK INTO TWO PIECES WHERE ONE PIECE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND
THE OTHER PIECE TRANSLATES ACROSS NERN OLD MEXICO /PER THE GFS AND
ECMWF/. THUS...THIS SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY IS TOO FAR SW TO AFFECT
THE REGION. IF FOLLOWING THE FORMER MODEL...A RATHER LIGHT WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NRN AND NWRN
ZONES WITH -RA ELSEWHERE ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE NAME WHILST THE GFS IS ALMOST VOID OF PRECIP...LIKELY DUE TO ITS
WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE DISTURBANCE. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS APPEARS VALID ATTM...WITH BETTER CHANCES NORTH...SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FA.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SRLY SFC REGIME WILL MAKE A
RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THUS PROMOTING A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND /HIGHS IN THE 70S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK/. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
PROGGED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS MID-WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE REGION MID-LATE WEEK...THOUGH ITS TRACK IS UP FOR
DEBATE /REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA PER THE ECMWF OR PASSING OVERHEAD
PER THE GFS/. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE BEYOND SATURDAY ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  71  38  72  28 /   0   0   0   0  20
TULIA         26  67  37  73  30 /   0   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     25  67  38  74  31 /   0   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     28  69  39  75  32 /   0   0   0   0  20
LUBBOCK       28  67  40  75  33 /   0   0   0   0  20
DENVER CITY   32  67  42  76  35 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    30  67  40  75  34 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     28  64  38  74  34 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          25  65  39  74  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     26  65  41  74  37 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29