Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/04/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
212 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
ANOTHER UPDATE TO PULL DOWN MORE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
UPDATED TO PULL DOWN HIGHLIGHTS FOR PUEBLO COUNTY...THE SOUTHERN
SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND THE WET MOUNTAINS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO IS LINING UP
BETTER WITH RUC13 SO FAR. NOT BUYING THE NAM12 BULLS EYE OF
SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY IN THE 12Z RUN...THOUGH DO
THINK THAT SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS THAT WAY...BUT LEFT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS IS WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING A TRACE TO UP TO 1 INCH. SOUTHEAST PORTS OF THE COUNTY
COULD SEE MORE WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE THE
INHERITED 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS STILL LOOKS IN THE BALL PARK. HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
00Z AS SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SNOW WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 500 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
HAVE CANCELED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EL PASO AS VISIBILITY
PER CAMS AND OBS IS GENERALLY ABOVE ONE MILE. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
ARE PUSHING BACK THE TIMING OF TODAY`S SNOW BAND A BIT...POSSIBLY
DELAYING THE ACCUMULATING SNOW UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE SNOW ADVISORIES FOR NOW. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE PLAINS TODAY.
PRONOUNCED VORT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH SRN AZ PER WV IMAGERY...WITH
A NUMBER OF LTG STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF A 100 KT
JET STREAK NOW BEING NOTED OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL TRANSLATE TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...PUTTING MUCH
OF OUR CWA UNDER THE GUN FOR THE THREAT OF SOME MDT SNOW. LAST
COUPLE OF NAM RUNS HAVE REVERTED BACK TO A FORECAST FROM TWO DAYS
AGO...BRINGING THE H7 DEFORMATION ZONE BACK INTO SE CO AS THE H7
LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE SERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE ALREADY COMPLETELY MISSED THE SNOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
FALLING OVER PUEBLO COUNTY...SO NOT A LOT OF FAITH IN THE MODEL
FORECAST AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW. BUT THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH
INCLUDES THE 3KM WRF...RAP...AND NAM...ALL SHOW A FAIRLY BROAD
BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN CO FROM AROUND 13-14Z AND
LASTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE GOOD CONSENSUS AND
TRENDS IN OBS...BELIEVE THIS WHOLE AREA WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE
OF SEEING AT LEAST LOW END ADVISORY AMTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO
WILL INTRODUCE A SWATH OF NEW ADVISORIES INCLUDING PUEBLO
COUNTY...THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...AND THE SRN PART OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...THE POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATEST SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...BUT THE NAM HAS TRENDED A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
BAND IN THE 06Z RUN...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW
THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORN. AMOUNTS COULD VARY QUITE A A BIT
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS SET UP...BUT PROBABLY 2-6
INCHES OVERALL LOOKS REASONABLE...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE HIGH
SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS AS TEMPS REMAIN IN THE TEENS THIS MORN. ONE
POSITIVE IS THAT THE LOW DENSITY SLOW WILL BRING A LITTLE LESS
IMPACT TO AREA ROADS.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FOR THE PLAINS TODAY...AS VERY COLD AIR IN
PLACE IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...AND WITH PRECIP THERE WILL BE
LITTLE WARM UP. MAY EVEN BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH MID 20S FOR
THE KPUB AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE 30S...AND THE HIGH VALLEYS COULD EVEN SEE SOME 40S
TODAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE FINISHED BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS
TONIGHT COULD REALLY DROP IF THERE IS SOME CLEARING GIVEN THE SNOW
COVER...SO WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT
MAY STILL BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHSN
OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE...LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY QUIET ALBEIT COLD
NIGHT. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
...WX COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING THIS PERIOD...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW TO
MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTNS. ONE DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO BE A BIT
STRONGER...AND MAY BRING SOME SNOW TO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
MON...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE C MTNS...IT WILL BE
DRY. TEMPS WILL RECOVER ON THE PLAINS WITH M50S MOST AREAS. COLDEST
READINGS WILL BE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WHERE M40S WILL OCCUR.
VALLEYS SHOULD SEE MAXES AOA 50F. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
MTNS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL FLOW ON THE PLAINS.
TUE...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL OVER THE C MTN AREAS.
TEMPS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS MAXES. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR E PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BE 5F WARMER THAN
MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR TUE EVE IN THE C MTNS
WHERE 2-3"INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME CONFLICTING
DATA ON HOW STRONG THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE. LATEST 06Z GFS IS QUITE
A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND SHOWS PRECIP LASTING
ACROSS THE E PLAINS TUE NITE AND INTO EARLY WED. LATEST 06Z
NAM...AND 00Z EC SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. FOR NOW LEANED
TOWARD THE EC GUIDANCE. I SHOULD NOTE THAT *IF* THE GFS
VERIFIES...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY SNOW/WIND OVER FAR SE CO
LATE TUE NITE/WED MORNING.
WED...MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION WED AS
COMPARED TO TUE. IT WILL BE DRY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NOTE THAT IF
THE LATEST 06Z GFS DOES VERIFY...THEN IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON WED
THAN WHAT CURRENT NDFD INDICATES.
THU...MAINLY DRY AND WARM THIS DAY. HIGHS APPROACHING 70F I-25
CORRIDOR REGION. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE C MTNS THU NITE AND SNOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE.
FRI INTO SAT...COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH REGION EARLY IN DAY
FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS ON THE PLAINS ARE PRGD TO BE IN THE 55-60F
RANGE AND THESE MAXES MAY BE OPTIMISTIC...AND WILL OCCUR EARLY IN
THE DAY. REGION WIDE MTN SNOWS/LOWER ELEVATION RAINS WILL CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW LATE. EC GUIDANCE MOST INTENSE WITH THIS STORM AS IT
FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS WHILE GFS A BIT MORE OPENED.
I SHOULD NOTE THAT THE 06Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS...SO IT IS TRENDING TOWARDS THE EC
SOLUTION. IF EC VERIFIES...THEN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY E FACING
SLOPES OF S MTNS/RATON MESA REGION WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SNOW FRI NITE INTO EARLY SAT.
GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW INTO MARCH...I WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED
IF THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS VERIFY WITH THESE INCOMING WX SYSTEMS.
HPC GUIDANCE HAS 0.25 TO 0.75" OF PRECIP OVER A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. /HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
DEFORMATION BAND IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF KPUB.
THINK THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHSN AT TIMES AT LEAST THROUGH 20-21Z.
COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN GOING INTO TONIGHT IS POSSIBILITY FOR IFR
TO LIFR CIGS/VIS IN FOG TO REDEVELOP IN WEAK SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW. THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KPUB THAN KCOS DUE TO THE
SNOW COVER. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDERESTIMATING THE WESTWARD
PUSH OF THE COLD AIR AND PERSISTENCE OF STRATUS...SO HAVE
INTRODUCED THIS INTO THE KCOS TAF AS WELL. WEAK FLOW ALOFT FINALLY
ATTAINS A STRONGER NW COMPONENT INTO TONIGHT AND STRATUS/FOG THAT
FORMS SHOULD RECEDE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KCOS AFTER 10Z. IT WILL
HANG ON LONGER IN KPUB...PROBABLY UNTIL AROUND 15Z. KALS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE PASSING -SHSN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH
BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH CLEARING THIS EVENING...KALS STANDS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEEING
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG OVER SNOW COVER. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ093>099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1256 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
UPDATED TO PULL DOWN HIGHLIGHTS FOR PUEBLO COUNTY...THE SOUTHERN
SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND THE WET MOUNTAINS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO IS LINING UP
BETTER WITH RUC13 SO FAR. NOT BUYING THE NAM12 BULLS EYE OF
SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY IN THE 12Z RUN...THOUGH DO
THINK THAT SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS THAT WAY...BUT LEFT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS IS WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING A TRACE TO UP TO 1 INCH. SOUTHEAST PORTS OF THE COUNTY
COULD SEE MORE WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE THE
INHERITED 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS STILL LOOKS IN THE BALL PARK. HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
00Z AS SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SNOW WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 500 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
HAVE CANCELED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EL PASO AS VISIBILITY
PER CAMS AND OBS IS GENERALLY ABOVE ONE MILE. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
ARE PUSHING BACK THE TIMING OF TODAY`S SNOW BAND A BIT...POSSIBLY
DELAYING THE ACCUMULATING SNOW UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE SNOW ADVISORIES FOR NOW. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
...SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE PLAINS TODAY.
PRONOUNCED VORT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH SRN AZ PER WV IMAGERY...WITH A
NUMBER OF LTG STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF A 100 KT JET
STREAK NOW BEING NOTED OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...PUTTING MUCH OF OUR
CWA UNDER THE GUN FOR THE THREAT OF SOME MDT SNOW. LAST COUPLE OF
NAM RUNS HAVE REVERTED BACK TO A FORECAST FROM TWO DAYS
AGO...BRINGING THE H7 DEFORMATION ZONE BACK INTO SE CO AS THE H7 LOW
TRACKS THROUGH THE SERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE ALREADY COMPLETELY MISSED THE SNOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
FALLING OVER PUEBLO COUNTY...SO NOT A LOT OF FAITH IN THE MODEL
FORECAST AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW. BUT THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH
INCLUDES THE 3KM WRF...RAP...AND NAM...ALL SHOW A FAIRLY BROAD BAND
OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN CO FROM AROUND 13-14Z AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE GOOD CONSENSUS AND TRENDS IN
OBS...BELIEVE THIS WHOLE AREA WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING AT
LEAST LOW END ADVISORY AMTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL INTRODUCE A
SWATH OF NEW ADVISORIES INCLUDING PUEBLO COUNTY...THE SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR...AND THE SRN PART OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...THE
POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATEST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT THE NAM HAS
TRENDED A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND IN THE 06Z RUN...SO WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORN. AMOUNTS
COULD VARY QUITE A A BIT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS SET
UP...BUT PROBABLY 2-6 INCHES OVERALL LOOKS REASONABLE...PARTICULARLY
GIVEN THE HIGH SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS AS TEMPS REMAIN IN THE TEENS THIS
MORN. ONE POSITIVE IS THAT THE LOW DENSITY SLOW WILL BRING A LITTLE
LESS IMPACT TO AREA ROADS.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FOR THE PLAINS TODAY...AS VERY COLD AIR IN
PLACE IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...AND WITH PRECIP THERE WILL BE
LITTLE WARM UP. MAY EVEN BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH MID 20S FOR
THE KPUB AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE 30S...AND THE HIGH VALLEYS COULD EVEN SEE SOME 40S
TODAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE FINISHED BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS
TONIGHT COULD REALLY DROP IF THERE IS SOME CLEARING GIVEN THE SNOW
COVER...SO WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT
MAY STILL BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHSN
OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE...LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY QUIET ALBEIT COLD
NIGHT. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
...WX COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING THIS PERIOD...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW TO
MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTNS. ONE DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO BE A BIT
STRONGER...AND MAY BRING SOME SNOW TO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
MON...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE C MTNS...IT WILL BE
DRY. TEMPS WILL RECOVER ON THE PLAINS WITH M50S MOST AREAS. COLDEST
READINGS WILL BE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WHERE M40S WILL OCCUR.
VALLEYS SHOULD SEE MAXES AOA 50F. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
MTNS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL FLOW ON THE PLAINS.
TUE...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL OVER THE C MTN AREAS.
TEMPS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS MAXES. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR E PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BE 5F WARMER THAN
MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR TUE EVE IN THE C MTNS
WHERE 2-3"INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME CONFLICTING
DATA ON HOW STRONG THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE. LATEST 06Z GFS IS QUITE
A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND SHOWS PRECIP LASTING
ACROSS THE E PLAINS TUE NITE AND INTO EARLY WED. LATEST 06Z
NAM...AND 00Z EC SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. FOR NOW LEANED
TOWARD THE EC GUIDANCE. I SHOULD NOTE THAT *IF* THE GFS
VERIFIES...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY SNOW/WIND OVER FAR SE CO
LATE TUE NITE/WED MORNING.
WED...MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION WED AS
COMPARED TO TUE. IT WILL BE DRY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NOTE THAT IF
THE LATEST 06Z GFS DOES VERIFY...THEN IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON WED
THAN WHAT CURRENT NDFD INDICATES.
THU...MAINLY DRY AND WARM THIS DAY. HIGHS APPROACHING 70F I-25
CORRIDOR REGION. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE C MTNS THU NITE AND SNOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE.
FRI INTO SAT...COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH REGION EARLY IN DAY
FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS ON THE PLAINS ARE PRGD TO BE IN THE 55-60F
RANGE AND THESE MAXES MAY BE OPTIMISTIC...AND WILL OCCUR EARLY IN
THE DAY. REGION WIDE MTN SNOWS/LOWER ELEVATION RAINS WILL CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW LATE. EC GUIDANCE MOST INTENSE WITH THIS STORM AS IT
FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS WHILE GFS A BIT MORE OPENED.
I SHOULD NOTE THAT THE 06Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS...SO IT IS TRENDING TOWARDS THE EC
SOLUTION. IF EC VERIFIES...THEN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY E FACING
SLOPES OF S MTNS/RATON MESA REGION WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SNOW FRI NITE INTO EARLY SAT.
GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW INTO MARCH...I WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED
IF THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS VERIFY WITH THESE INCOMING WX SYSTEMS.
HPC GUIDANCE HAS 0.25 TO 0.75" OF PRECIP OVER A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. /HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
DEFORMATION BAND IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF KPUB.
THINK THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHSN AT TIMES AT LEAST THROUGH 20-21Z.
COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN GOING INTO TONIGHT IS POSSIBILITY FOR IFR
TO LIFR CIGS/VIS IN FOG TO REDEVELOP IN WEAK SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW. THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KPUB THAN KCOS DUE TO THE
SNOW COVER. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDERESTIMATING THE WESTWARD
PUSH OF THE COLD AIR AND PERSISTENCE OF STRATUS...SO HAVE
INTRODUCED THIS INTO THE KCOS TAF AS WELL. WEAK FLOW ALOFT FINALLY
ATTAINS A STRONGER NW COMPONENT INTO TONIGHT AND STRATUS/FOG THAT
FORMS SHOULD RECEDE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KCOS AFTER 10Z. IT WILL
HANG ON LONGER IN KPUB...PROBABLY UNTIL AROUND 15Z. KALS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE PASSING -SHSN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH
BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH CLEARING THIS EVENING...KALS STANDS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEEING
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG OVER SNOW COVER. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ067-
072>075-087>089-093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ094>099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1043 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO IS LINING UP
BETTER WITH RUC13 SO FAR. NOT BUYING THE NAM12 BULLS EYE OF
SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY IN THE 12Z RUN...THOUGH DO
THINK THAT SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS THAT WAY...BUT LEFT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS IS WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING A TRACE TO UP TO 1 INCH. SOUTHEAST PORTS OF THE COUNTY
COULD SEE MORE WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE THE
INHERITED 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS STILL LOOKS IN THE BALL PARK. HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
00Z AS SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SNOW WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 500 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
HAVE CANCELED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EL PASO AS VISIBILITY
PER CAMS AND OBS IS GENERALLY ABOVE ONE MILE. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
ARE PUSHING BACK THE TIMING OF TODAY`S SNOW BAND A BIT...POSSIBLY
DELAYING THE ACCUMULATING SNOW UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE SNOW ADVISORIES FOR NOW. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
...SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE PLAINS TODAY.
PRONOUNCED VORT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH SRN AZ PER WV IMAGERY...WITH A
NUMBER OF LTG STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF A 100 KT JET
STREAK NOW BEING NOTED OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...PUTTING MUCH OF OUR
CWA UNDER THE GUN FOR THE THREAT OF SOME MDT SNOW. LAST COUPLE OF
NAM RUNS HAVE REVERTED BACK TO A FORECAST FROM TWO DAYS
AGO...BRINGING THE H7 DEFORMATION ZONE BACK INTO SE CO AS THE H7 LOW
TRACKS THROUGH THE SERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE ALREADY COMPLETELY MISSED THE SNOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
FALLING OVER PUEBLO COUNTY...SO NOT A LOT OF FAITH IN THE MODEL
FORECAST AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW. BUT THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH
INCLUDES THE 3KM WRF...RAP...AND NAM...ALL SHOW A FAIRLY BROAD BAND
OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN CO FROM AROUND 13-14Z AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE GOOD CONSENSUS AND TRENDS IN
OBS...BELIEVE THIS WHOLE AREA WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING AT
LEAST LOW END ADVISORY AMTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL INTRODUCE A
SWATH OF NEW ADVISORIES INCLUDING PUEBLO COUNTY...THE SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR...AND THE SRN PART OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...THE
POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATEST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT THE NAM HAS
TRENDED A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND IN THE 06Z RUN...SO WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORN. AMOUNTS
COULD VARY QUITE A A BIT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS SET
UP...BUT PROBABLY 2-6 INCHES OVERALL LOOKS REASONABLE...PARTICULARLY
GIVEN THE HIGH SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS AS TEMPS REMAIN IN THE TEENS THIS
MORN. ONE POSITIVE IS THAT THE LOW DENSITY SLOW WILL BRING A LITTLE
LESS IMPACT TO AREA ROADS.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FOR THE PLAINS TODAY...AS VERY COLD AIR IN
PLACE IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...AND WITH PRECIP THERE WILL BE
LITTLE WARM UP. MAY EVEN BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH MID 20S FOR
THE KPUB AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE 30S...AND THE HIGH VALLEYS COULD EVEN SEE SOME 40S
TODAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE FINISHED BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS
TONIGHT COULD REALLY DROP IF THERE IS SOME CLEARING GIVEN THE SNOW
COVER...SO WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT
MAY STILL BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHSN
OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE...LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY QUIET ALBEIT COLD
NIGHT. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
...WX COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING THIS PERIOD...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW TO
MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTNS. ONE DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO BE A BIT
STRONGER...AND MAY BRING SOME SNOW TO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
MON...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE C MTNS...IT WILL BE
DRY. TEMPS WILL RECOVER ON THE PLAINS WITH M50S MOST AREAS. COLDEST
READINGS WILL BE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WHERE M40S WILL OCCUR.
VALLEYS SHOULD SEE MAXES AOA 50F. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
MTNS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL FLOW ON THE PLAINS.
TUE...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL OVER THE C MTN AREAS.
TEMPS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS MAXES. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR E PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BE 5F WARMER THAN
MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR TUE EVE IN THE C MTNS
WHERE 2-3"INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME CONFLICTING
DATA ON HOW STRONG THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE. LATEST 06Z GFS IS QUITE
A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND SHOWS PRECIP LASTING
ACROSS THE E PLAINS TUE NITE AND INTO EARLY WED. LATEST 06Z
NAM...AND 00Z EC SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. FOR NOW LEANED
TOWARD THE EC GUIDANCE. I SHOULD NOTE THAT *IF* THE GFS
VERIFIES...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY SNOW/WIND OVER FAR SE CO
LATE TUE NITE/WED MORNING.
WED...MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION WED AS
COMPARED TO TUE. IT WILL BE DRY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NOTE THAT IF
THE LATEST 06Z GFS DOES VERIFY...THEN IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON WED
THAN WHAT CURRENT NDFD INDICATES.
THU...MAINLY DRY AND WARM THIS DAY. HIGHS APPROACHING 70F I-25
CORRIDOR REGION. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE C MTNS THU NITE AND SNOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE.
FRI INTO SAT...COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH REGION EARLY IN DAY
FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS ON THE PLAINS ARE PRGD TO BE IN THE 55-60F
RANGE AND THESE MAXES MAY BE OPTIMISTIC...AND WILL OCCUR EARLY IN
THE DAY. REGION WIDE MTN SNOWS/LOWER ELEVATION RAINS WILL CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW LATE. EC GUIDANCE MOST INTENSE WITH THIS STORM AS IT
FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS WHILE GFS A BIT MORE OPENED.
I SHOULD NOTE THAT THE 06Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS...SO IT IS TRENDING TOWARDS THE EC
SOLUTION. IF EC VERIFIES...THEN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY E FACING
SLOPES OF S MTNS/RATON MESA REGION WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SNOW FRI NITE INTO EARLY SAT.
GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW INTO MARCH...I WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED
IF THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS VERIFY WITH THESE INCOMING WX SYSTEMS.
HPC GUIDANCE HAS 0.25 TO 0.75" OF PRECIP OVER A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. /HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
DEFORMATION BAND IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF KPUB.
THINK THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHSN AT TIMES AT LEAST THROUGH 20-21Z.
COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN GOING INTO TONIGHT IS POSSIBILITY FOR IFR
TO LIFR CIGS/VIS IN FOG TO REDEVELOP IN WEAK SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW. THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KPUB THAN KCOS DUE TO THE
SNOW COVER. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDERESTIMATING THE WESTWARD
PUSH OF THE COLD AIR AND PERSISTENCE OF STRATUS...SO HAVE
INTRODUCED THIS INTO THE KCOS TAF AS WELL. WEAK FLOW ALOFT FINALLY
ATTAINS A STRONGER NW COMPONENT INTO TONIGHT AND STRATUS/FOG THAT
FORMS SHOULD RECEDE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KCOS AFTER 10Z. IT WILL
HANG ON LONGER IN KPUB...PROBABLY UNTIL AROUND 15Z. KALS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE PASSING -SHSN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH
BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH CLEARING THIS EVENING...KALS STANDS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEEING
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG OVER SNOW COVER. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ067-
071>075-079-080-086>089-093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ094>099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
946 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO IS LINING UP
BETTER WITH RUC13 SO FAR. NOT BUYING THE NAM12 BULLS EYE OF
SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY IN THE 12Z RUN...THOUGH DO
THINK THAT SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS THAT WAY...BUT LEFT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS IS WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING A TRACE TO UP TO 1 INCH. SOUTHEAST PORTS OF THE COUNTY
COULD SEE MORE WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE THE
INHERITED 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS STILL LOOKS IN THE BALL PARK. HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
00Z AS SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SNOW WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 500 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
HAVE CANCELED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EL PASO AS VISIBILITY
PER CAMS AND OBS IS GENERALLY ABOVE ONE MILE. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
ARE PUSHING BACK THE TIMING OF TODAY`S SNOW BAND A BIT...POSSIBLY
DELAYING THE ACCUMULATING SNOW UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE SNOW ADVISORIES FOR NOW. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
...SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE PLAINS TODAY.
PRONOUNCED VORT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH SRN AZ PER WV IMAGERY...WITH A
NUMBER OF LTG STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF A 100 KT JET
STREAK NOW BEING NOTED OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...PUTTING MUCH OF OUR
CWA UNDER THE GUN FOR THE THREAT OF SOME MDT SNOW. LAST COUPLE OF
NAM RUNS HAVE REVERTED BACK TO A FORECAST FROM TWO DAYS
AGO...BRINGING THE H7 DEFORMATION ZONE BACK INTO SE CO AS THE H7 LOW
TRACKS THROUGH THE SERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE ALREADY COMPLETELY MISSED THE SNOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
FALLING OVER PUEBLO COUNTY...SO NOT A LOT OF FAITH IN THE MODEL
FORECAST AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW. BUT THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH
INCLUDES THE 3KM WRF...RAP...AND NAM...ALL SHOW A FAIRLY BROAD BAND
OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN CO FROM AROUND 13-14Z AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE GOOD CONSENSUS AND TRENDS IN
OBS...BELIEVE THIS WHOLE AREA WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING AT
LEAST LOW END ADVISORY AMTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL INTRODUCE A
SWATH OF NEW ADVISORIES INCLUDING PUEBLO COUNTY...THE SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR...AND THE SRN PART OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...THE
POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATEST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT THE NAM HAS
TRENDED A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND IN THE 06Z RUN...SO WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORN. AMOUNTS
COULD VARY QUITE A A BIT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS SET
UP...BUT PROBABLY 2-6 INCHES OVERALL LOOKS REASONABLE...PARTICULARLY
GIVEN THE HIGH SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS AS TEMPS REMAIN IN THE TEENS THIS
MORN. ONE POSITIVE IS THAT THE LOW DENSITY SLOW WILL BRING A LITTLE
LESS IMPACT TO AREA ROADS.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FOR THE PLAINS TODAY...AS VERY COLD AIR IN
PLACE IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...AND WITH PRECIP THERE WILL BE
LITTLE WARM UP. MAY EVEN BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH MID 20S FOR
THE KPUB AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE 30S...AND THE HIGH VALLEYS COULD EVEN SEE SOME 40S
TODAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE FINISHED BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS
TONIGHT COULD REALLY DROP IF THERE IS SOME CLEARING GIVEN THE SNOW
COVER...SO WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT
MAY STILL BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHSN
OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE...LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY QUIET ALBEIT COLD
NIGHT. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
...WX COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING THIS PERIOD...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW TO
MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTNS. ONE DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO BE A BIT
STRONGER...AND MAY BRING SOME SNOW TO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
MON...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE C MTNS...IT WILL BE
DRY. TEMPS WILL RECOVER ON THE PLAINS WITH M50S MOST AREAS. COLDEST
READINGS WILL BE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WHERE M40S WILL OCCUR.
VALLEYS SHOULD SEE MAXES AOA 50F. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
MTNS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL FLOW ON THE PLAINS.
TUE...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL OVER THE C MTN AREAS.
TEMPS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS MAXES. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR E PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BE 5F WARMER THAN
MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR TUE EVE IN THE C MTNS
WHERE 2-3"INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME CONFLICTING
DATA ON HOW STRONG THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE. LATEST 06Z GFS IS QUITE
A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND SHOWS PRECIP LASTING
ACROSS THE E PLAINS TUE NITE AND INTO EARLY WED. LATEST 06Z
NAM...AND 00Z EC SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. FOR NOW LEANED
TOWARD THE EC GUIDANCE. I SHOULD NOTE THAT *IF* THE GFS
VERIFIES...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY SNOW/WIND OVER FAR SE CO
LATE TUE NITE/WED MORNING.
WED...MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION WED AS
COMPARED TO TUE. IT WILL BE DRY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NOTE THAT IF
THE LATEST 06Z GFS DOES VERIFY...THEN IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON WED
THAN WHAT CURRENT NDFD INDICATES.
THU...MAINLY DRY AND WARM THIS DAY. HIGHS APPROACHING 70F I-25
CORRIDOR REGION. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE C MTNS THU NITE AND SNOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE.
FRI INTO SAT...COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH REGION EARLY IN DAY
FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS ON THE PLAINS ARE PRGD TO BE IN THE 55-60F
RANGE AND THESE MAXES MAY BE OPTIMISTIC...AND WILL OCCUR EARLY IN
THE DAY. REGION WIDE MTN SNOWS/LOWER ELEVATION RAINS WILL CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW LATE. EC GUIDANCE MOST INTENSE WITH THIS STORM AS IT
FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS WHILE GFS A BIT MORE OPENED.
I SHOULD NOTE THAT THE 06Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS...SO IT IS TRENDING TOWARDS THE EC
SOLUTION. IF EC VERIFIES...THEN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY E FACING
SLOPES OF S MTNS/RATON MESA REGION WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SNOW FRI NITE INTO EARLY SAT.
GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW INTO MARCH...I WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED
IF THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS VERIFY WITH THESE INCOMING WX SYSTEMS.
HPC GUIDANCE HAS 0.25 TO 0.75" OF PRECIP OVER A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. /HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
MORNING AT KPUB AND KCOS. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL FALL TODAY...WITH KCOS ON THE NRN FRINGES OF
WHERE THE ACCUMULATING SNOW DEVELOPS. COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AT KCOS AFTER 18Z TODAY...WHILE KPUB IS MORE LIKELY TO
REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE DAY AS SNOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE SE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME PATCHY
FG OR BR IS ALSO A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KPUB THROUGH MON MORNING.
KALS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PERIODS OF IFR THIS MORNING IN SN OR MIXED
PRECIP THROUGH 18-19Z...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ067-
071>075-079-080-086>089-093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ094>099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RETURN OF ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE
BITTERLY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED APPROACHING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM EST...SNOW PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
REGIONAL RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE.
EXPERIENTIAL HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS ARE ALSO DIMINISHING
WITH EXPECTED RADAR RETURNS. FOR THIS UPDATE WE HAVE LOWERED
SNOWFALL EXPECTATIONS ALONG WITH POPS. FURTHERMORE...ARCTIC
BOUNDARY JUST CLEARED MOST OF EASTERN NY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RE-TWEAKED ONCE AGAIN FOR A WARMER START FOR THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST.
AS OF 300 AM EST...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS REVEAL LIGHT SNOW WAS
UNDERWAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AND
NOW EVOLVING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREENS. THIS IS ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. A CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH A
TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL KEEP BANDS OF SNOW
RATHER LIGHT AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LIFT WILL BE RATHER LIGHT
AND NOT TAPPING INTO BETTER DENDRITES. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE UPSLOPE FAVORED TERRAIN
AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES /DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES/ LATER TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES WITH THE DOWNWARD
TREND IN QPF LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE ONGOING RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SEEN IN THE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING. AS THE
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY OCCURS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE OBTAINED THIS MORNING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE
BACK WELL DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE VALUES /RANGING FROM -6C ACROSS
OUR EXTREME SOUTH CWA TO -20C ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN CWA/.
TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLOW THE FORWARD
PROGRESS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AS THE SURFACE FEATURES PARALLEL
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. FURTHERMORE...UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS UPSTATE
NY IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY >170KTS WITH ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
ENHANCING LIFT ACROSS PA/NJ. FGEN FORCING IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
A BIT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THAT COINCIDES WITH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH. SO THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 4 INCHES WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION SEEING COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. MESOSCALE MODELS AND BUFR PROFILES ACROSS KGFL SUGGEST
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH A NORTHERLY WIND DOWN THE
VALLEY AND ANY MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKE COULD BRING SOME LAKE
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES INTO THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE WILL RETAIN CHC-SCT POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS SURFACE TEMPS DROP BACK WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE DACKS H850 TEMPS
ARE PROGED TO BE AT OR BELOW -20C. WINDS MAY BE CLOSE FOR WIND
CHILL THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE DACKS BUT PER COLLABORATION...NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH SO A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO BRING A MAINLY SUNNY
SKY. DESPITE THE EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 20F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OUR NORMAL HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR ARE WELL INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.
MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE QUITE COLD WITH INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH SNOW COVER TO RESULT IN BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT BUT LIKELY THE
TEMPS WILL HAVE ALREADY DROPPED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL BE FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVING IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AS WAS THE
CASE WITH OUR CURRENT SYSTEM...THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS QUITE
CONFLUENT SO ANY PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. WE WILL INCREASE INTO LOW CHANCE POPS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE 20S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE AS
THOSE H850 TEMPS REMAIN INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS A MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES IN THE FAST NORTHERN STREAM TOWARDS THE AREA. SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST...BUT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE RATHER LIMITED FROM
THIS SYSTEM. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH MINS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT RANGING FROM -10 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO +10 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. MAX TEMPS ON WED WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER...WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. MINS WED NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS /BELOW ZERO OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...AS THE WIND SWITCHES TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S IN MANY AREAS.
LATE IN THE WEEK...A DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW A
STORM TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 00Z GEFS...SEEM TO SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TO PREVENT ANY IMPACT
ON OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER...SINCE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBER DO SHOW SOME
PRECIP...AND SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A CLOSER
APPROACH...WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
POPS...ESP FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...A PASSING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING
FROM THE RECENT ARCTIC COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS ON FRI/SAT IN THE 30S
/EVEN SOME LOW 40S FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS/ WITH MINS IN THE 20S
/SOME TEENS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ARCTIC FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND STRATUS CLOUDS ARE
ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE VERY LIGHT...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
VSBYS/CIGS AT KPSF FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT ALL SITES DUE TO LOW CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSING BOUNDARY. THESE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTN/EARLY
EVE AT KPOU/KPSF AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH AND SLOWS DOWN.
OTHERWISE...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LATER
TODAY...AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY BE LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT TONIGHT
FOR ALL TERMINALS AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION.
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AROUND 10 KTS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR
KALB. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NW BY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AT AROUND
5-10 KTS FOR ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH. THIS WILL
ALLOW ICE TO REFORM...THICKEN...AND STRENGTHEN ON AREA RIVERS AND
LAKES THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY...AND
AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
253 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...LATEST RUC13 500MB PLOT WAS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS...ORIENTED SW TO NE...CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED EAST AND
AWAY FROM FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING TO AN
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. WINDS AT THE SURFACE STILL NORTH TO NORTHEAST CAPE CANAVERAL
NORTH AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE DOWN TO JUPITER INLET
AS THE PERSISTENT INVERTED TROUGHING EAST OF FLORIDA SLOWLY
FLATTENS. PLENTY OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCU OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
MOSTLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 ON LAND PER VISIBLE SATELLITE. LITTLE
IF ANY PRECIP IN THE STABLE MARINE AIR MASS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
OVERLAND.
TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
CROSSES OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR
SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECOUPLING OF THE LOWEST LAYERS
AND THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE LOWEST FEW HUNDREDS OF FEET SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH OF A WIND FOR SOUTH TO
NORTH MOVING STRATUS TO FORM TOWARD SUNRISE AND LAST UNTIL MID
MORNING OR WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT AND THE LOWEST LEVEL WIND
FIELDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE INLAND VOLUSIA
ORANGE COUNTIES WESTWARD IF THE WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH OR CALM LONG
ENOUGH FOR THE LOWEST LAYERS TO SATURATE AND NOT BE MIXED A LOT.
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE LOW STRATUS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST BREVARD SOUTH.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TOO LATE TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE AFTERNOON ONWARD AS AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER
THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST U.S. PULLS GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. WARM TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
80S BASICALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR AND LOW 80S NORTH
OF I 4 INCLUDING COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY.
MON NIGHT/TUE...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL FL BY TUE
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT SO WILL MAINTAIN
20 POPS MAINLY ORLANDO/CAPE NORTHWARD MON NIGHT. AT LEAST THERE
WILL BE CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY TUE MORNING WHICH SHOULD BE SLOW TO LIFT. SO THIS WILL
HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS
THE NORTH BY A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT RAISED TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH (AROUND LAKE O) INTO THE MID 80S WHERE GOOD HEATING SHOULD
OCCUR.
WEAK SFC LOW PRES WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TO
THE EAST OF FL TUE WHICH MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL PUSH SOUTHWARD.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE FCST OF SLGT CHC FOR SOME LOW TOPPED SHRA IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WHICH BRIDGES THE FRONT THROUGH TUE EVENING.
WED-THU...12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES ESP AT 500 MB (ECMWF HAS TRENDED DEEPER/STRONGER ONCE
AGAIN) BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM STILL
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.
AS SFC LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WRN-CTRL GOMEX...ONSHORE WINDS
VEER FROM E-NE WED MORNING TO SE OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN. SFC LOW DEEPENS TO SUB-1010MB JUST SOUTH OF PENSACOLA
BY THU MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN (~1004MB) AS IT MOVES EWD
INTO THE FL BIG BAND BY SUNSET...THEN ACROSS THE STATE AND UP THE
EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD STARTING EARLY FRIDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY... COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS POINTS TO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF STRONG/SVR
STORMS IN THE THU AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DECENT CONSISTENCY/CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECM OVER
THE PAST 3 DAYS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN USUAL IN SOME MAGNITUDE
OF AN EVENT IMPACT...EVEN THOUGH IT IS 4 DAYS OUT.
FRI-SAT...LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER IN THE
DAY AS THEY UPPER SYSTEM RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. COOLER AND
DRIER WX WILL FOLLOW WITH TEMPS RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH 06-08Z PERIOD. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE FROM 08-13Z
BUT FEEL IT WILL BE MORE OF A LOW STRATUS...FL005-010...AS THE
LOWEST LAYERS SEPARATE FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS ABOVE THE INVERSIONS. STRATUS LIFTS MID MORNING. CUMULUS AND
STRATOCUMULUS INCREASES QUICKLY AFTER MID MORNING IN THE WARMING AND
INCREASING WINDS IN THE LOWER LAYERS.
&&
.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM
CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH START A SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FINALLY FLATTENS THE INVERTED
TROUGH THAT WAS SITTING OVER THE WATERS EAST OF FLORIDA THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. A FEW SHOWERS AS WARMER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RIDES
OVER SHALLOW COOLER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. SHOULD LAST UNTIL THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM.
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AS THE WESTERN PART OF THE HIGH SLIDES OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE FRONT MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
WESTERN PANHANDLE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS WINDS.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CRITERIA...15 TO 20 KNOTS...OFFSHORE LATE MORNING AND IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TUE-FRI...COOL FRONT LIMPS INTO THE ADJACENT ATLC WATERS BY EARLY
TUE AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY WED...BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH WED NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SOME MODERATE NORTH FLOW COULD REACH THE VOLUSIA
WATERS TUE...AND NE FLOW WED...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE SEAS
REMAIN IN THE 3-5FT RANGE THRU WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
THU AS S/SW WINDS INCREASE WITH POTENTIAL FOR BAND OF FAST-
MOVING STRONG STORMS MOVING EWD OFF THE FL PENINSULA THU
AFTN/EVENING. WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THU INTO FRI.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 59 83 59 73 / 10 10 20 20
MCO 59 84 61 80 / 0 10 20 20
MLB 64 83 62 79 / 10 10 10 20
VRB 61 83 60 81 / 10 10 10 20
LEE 59 83 59 78 / 0 10 20 20
SFB 60 84 61 78 / 0 10 20 20
ORL 61 83 62 79 / 0 10 20 20
FPR 60 83 59 82 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WIMMER/KELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...OVERNIGHT FOG HAS BURNED OFF LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE MORNING. LATEST RUC13 500MB PLOT WAS
SHOWING THAT THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE WAS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST
COAST TO EAST OF THE NJ/NY/CT AREA. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED
TROUGH JUST OFF THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS SENTENCE. THE INVERTED TROUGH HAS BEEN IN ESSENTIALLY
THE SAME AREA THE PAST TWO DAYS. THE TWO SMALL GRID LOCAL WRF MODELS
AND THE NAM12 HAVE BEEN DOING A DECENT JOB OF CATCHING THIS FEATURE
AND ARE DOING SO IN THE MOST RECENT RUNS.
THE MORNING ZONE/COASTAL UPDATES WILL BACK THE WINDS MORE TO THE
NORTH ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND COAST SEBASTIAN INLET NORTH
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS THEN VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST EARLY EVENING AS THE INVERTED TROUGHING FINALLY BREAKS/FLATTENS
DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS INTO THE ATLANTIC
AND THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DEEPENS. ALSO...THE AFTERNOON WINDS
AT THE COAST AND NORTHERN TWO/2 COASTAL WATER ZONES HAVE BEEN
STRONGER THAN THE GFS/MOS WINDS NORMALLY USED TO POPULATE THE UPDATE
GRIDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
TODAY-TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE DAY WILL BE MORNING FOG
DEVELOPMENT. DENSE FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST COMPONENT PUSHING IT INTO NORTHERN
LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER IT IS A LITTLE MORE WEST
THAN YESTERDAY MORNING...AND IT APPEARS THAT LAKE/SUMTER COUNTY WILL
GET THE DENSEST CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND
THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL
PROMOTE LOCAL FOG DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN THE LAKE/VOLUSIA AREA...WITH PERHAPS 1-3
MILES FOR ANY OTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT.
915 MHZ PROFILERS SHOW THAT THE FOG LAYER IS PRETTY SHALLOW AND WILL
LIKELY BURN OFF WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SLIDES DOWN THE COAST WITH
ITS AXIS ENDING UP OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BY THIS EVENING.
BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. NICE SPRING
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S...EXCEPTION
ONCE AGAIN WILL BE THE VOLUSIA COAST WHICH WILL GET INTO THE MID
70S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S...AROUND 60 ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE COAST.
MON-TUE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO SOUTH FL EARLY MON
MORNING...THEN ERODES AND SLIDES EAST IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH FL
(GFS) AND THE FAR NORTHERN CWA (ECM). THE LATTER MODEL ADVANCES
THE PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE BAND INTO THE CENTRAL CWA...AND IN
DEFERENCE TO THAT...HAVE KEPT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS OSCEOLA/BREVARD
COS. FRONT ESSENTIALLY BECOMES QSTNRY NEAR IT`S POSN SUNRISE TUE...
WITH WEAK SFC LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT TO THE EAST OF FL.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE FCST OF SLGT CHC FOR SOME LOW TOPPED SHRA IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WHICH BRIDGES THE FRONT THROUGH TUE EVENING.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON...AND NOW TUE AS WELL
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AS GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BOUNDARY
A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN WAS ADVERTISED H24 AGO.
WED-THU...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SLOWLY BUT SURELY CONVERGING ON A SOLN
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THEIR PREVIOUS SOLNS W/R/T STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THE GOMEX LOW. IT LOOKS AS IF THE ECM HAS TRENDED A BIT TOWARD
THE WEAKER GFS AT BOTH THE SFC AND H50...HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM STILL IMPACTING THE CWA. AS SFC LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE WRN-CTRL GOMEX...ONSHORE WINDS VEER FROM E-NE WED
MORNING TO SE OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN. SFC LOW DEEPENS
TO SUB-1010MB SOUTH OF SRN AL/MS/WRN FL PANHANDLE BY THU MORNING...
AND CONTINUES TO DO SO (~1004MB) AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE FL BIG
BAND BY SUNSET...THEN ACROSS THE STATE AND UP THE EASTERN U.S.
SEABOARD STARTING EARLY FRIDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...
COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS POINTS TO
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SQLN OF STRONG/SVR STORMS IN THE THU
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DECENT
CONSISTENCY/CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECM OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN USUAL IN SOME MAGNITUDE OF AN EVENT
IMPACT...EVEN THOUGH THIS IS A DAY 5 EVENT.
FRI-SAT...LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER IN THE
DAY AS THEY UPPER SYSTEM RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. COOLER AND
DRIER WX WILL FOLLOW WITH TEMPS RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOG/STRATUS BANK FROM NE FLORIDA RETURNS WITH PREVAILING
LIFR CIGS AND INITIAL VSBYS 1/4SM OR LESS NORTH OF A KDED-KZPH LINE.
EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE BEHIND INITIAL PUSH TO AROUND 1SM.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP THROUGH 13Z WITH TEMPO
VSBYS 1-2SM. CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AFTER 13Z...THOUGH NORTHERNMOST
FOG AREAS MAY LINGER THROUGH 14Z. DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG EAST
COAST SEABREEZE FL040-050. FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER
08/06Z AWAY FROM THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OFF TO
THE EAST...WHICH HAS KEPT WINDS BACKED MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPE. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO COLLAPSE THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES DOWN THE COAST WITH RIDGE AXIS
ENDING UP OVER THE PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY 10-15KTS ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10KTS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 10-15KTS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT.
COMBINATION OF LINGERING SWELL AND WIND WAVE KEEPING SEAS AROUND 2-3
FT NEAR THE COAST AND 3-5 FT OVER OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
DOMINANT PERIODS LENGTHENING FROM 8SEC TO 9-10SEC LATE TONIGHT.
MON-THU...COOL FRONT SAGS TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH TUE AND EARLY WED...
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH LATER IN THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
GOMEX LOW. SOME MODERATE ONSHORE (NE-ENE) WINDS COULD LEAK INTO THE
VOLUSIA WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TO
SEE SEAS REMAIN IN THE 3-5FT RANGE THROUGH WED. INCREASING S-SWRLY
WINDS AND SEAS THU WITH POTENTIAL FOR BAND OF FAST-MOVING STRONG
TS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ATLC LATE THU-THU EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WARMER AND DRIER CONDS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH RH VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WELL INLAND AWAY FROM
INFLUENCES NEAR THE COAST. CRITICAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS NOT
FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 76 58 81 62 / 0 10 10 20
MCO 81 59 84 62 / 0 0 10 20
MLB 79 62 80 64 / 0 10 10 20
VRB 80 60 82 61 / 0 10 10 10
LEE 79 59 82 61 / 0 0 10 20
SFB 80 59 83 62 / 0 0 10 20
ORL 80 60 83 62 / 0 0 10 20
FPR 79 60 81 63 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
904 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
319 PM CST
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOR SNOW CHANCES...NAMELY TUE
NIGHT AND WED...AND THEN TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS IT
GETS CHALLENGING WEIGHING FACTORS SUCH AS CLOUD COVER...INCREASING
MARCH SUN ANGLE...SNOW COVER...AND FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...
A STRONG AND BARELY MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OF 1035MB IS IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA GOING INTO THIS EVE. WHILE HEIGHTS ARE
SLOWLY RISING ALOFT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WITHIN FAST
PACED WNW FLOW IS APPROACHING THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE ON WATER VAPOR IS SEEN ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WITH MID
CLOUD ALREADY INTO SOUTHWEST WI. THE RAP AND NAM SOLUTIONS OF
SIMULATED WATER VAPOR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND HAVE
INCORPORATED THAT APPROACH INTO SKY COVER FORECASTS TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING CLOUDY BY MID-EVE. THIS WILL MAKE IT TRICKY
AS THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS THIS
EVE BUT THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OFFSET THIS SOME. HAVE LEANED THE
MILDER ROUTE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...WITH A LIMITED DROP-OFF
THIS EVE AND THEN TEMPS CLIMBING OVERNIGHT. HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPS
FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHWEST IN WHERE MID CLOUDS
WILL TAKE THEIR LONGEST TO THICKEN.
THE FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL BE PRIMARILY TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO THIS SHORT WAVE...AS IT OFTEN IS
WITH THESE PROGRESSIVE ARE LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS.
THUS AM NOT TOO EXCITED FOR SNOW INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY DEEP ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SO HAVE
LEANED AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST 12Z NAM AND CLOSER TO THE RAP AND
GLOBAL MODELS...WITH POSSIBLY A DUSTING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-88.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES EARLY IN NORTHEAST
IL...THE DAYTIME TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A GAP BETWEEN WAVES
LIKELY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE. WITH A MUCH WARMER STARTING
POINT THAN TODAY...HIGHS LOOK TO REBOUND MORE TOWARD WHERE THEY
SHOULD BE GIVEN THE 925MB TEMPS...BUT FAR FROM WHERE THEY SHOULD
BE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE HAS A BETTER PATH TO FAVOR OUR AREA AND ALSO
HAS MORE ELONGATED /LONGER LASTING/ FORCING TIED TO ITS UPPER
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENESIS. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE AREA SEEING SNOW...NAMELY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING...AND IT MAKES GOOD SENSE GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. SO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS. THE SNOW LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT
GIVEN TOP DOWN METHOD AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES...WITH MODEST RATES
AT TIMES WHEREVER THAT WEST-TO-EAST BAROCLINIC GRADIENT OF THE
SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS. HAVE 1-2.5 INCHES FORECAST FOR A LOT OF THE
AREA. HOW MUCH A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY GETS INVOLVED WEDNESDAY WILL BE KEY AS WELL...AS THAT
COULD BOOST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. ALSO OF NOTE
IS POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SETUP ONCE AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT FOR NORTHEAST IL. MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS MORNING
WOULD POINT TOWARD NOT AS GOOD OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THERE ARE
SIGNS OF CONVERGENCE AND BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER RH...AND FOR THAT
HAVE CONTINUED POPS ACROSS CHICAGO INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MTF
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGH/LOW TEMPS...WITH LOW CHANCE POSSIBILITIES FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD.
GENERAL WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN SEVERAL WAVES OF
ENERGY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THESE
FEATURES AND RESULTANT QPF. ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO VARY WITH
THE STRENGTH OF A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AND THEN IS A TAD MORE BULLISH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...WHATEVER DEVELOPS SHOULD BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE
AND QUICKLY EXIT...AND WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. PATTERN TRIES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK WHILE SHOWING SIGNS OF SLIGHT WARMING...AS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE LARGE
VORT MAX SHIFTS EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. TAIL END OF THIS
ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AS WINDS
BACK AND WAA OCCURS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WARMER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW THEN POSSIBLE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT MOVE OVER THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH...THIS WARMING WILL BE BRIEF AS COLDER AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW PRE-DAWN THROUGH SUNRISE OR SO MONDAY
MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
* VARIABLE MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH MONDAY.
* GREATER POTENTIAL OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MAINLY JUST
BEYOND THE 06Z END OF CURRENT ORD 30 HOUR TAF.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT LIGHT/VARIABLE BETWEEN INFLUENCE OF HIGH
CENTER AND WEAK LAKE BREEZE...BUT WILL BACK MORE SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY TO FAR NORTHERN IL AND WI AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE WI/IL BORDER WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE ACCUMULATION.
TIMING STILL LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY 08Z-11Z AT RFD...09Z-12Z AT
ORD/MDW...THOUGH HAVE FORECAST A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC CONDITIONS IN
GENERAL ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH AT GYY. RFD LOOKS TO HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY.
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL END AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP LIFT IS NOTED...FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS DOES REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ATOP THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
STATIONARY FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME PERSISTENCE OF LOWER CLOUDS DURING THE DAY...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH RESPECT TO BOTH COVERAGE AND CEILING
HEIGHT. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH IT APPEARS SNOW CHANCES DO NOT REALLY INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL 06Z WED OR LATER.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT
GRADIENT...THOUGH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IT WILL BE BETWEEN
250-160 DEG.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AND RESULTING CIG/VIS IMPACTS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING TRENDS TUESDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY. CHANCE OF
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
227 PM CST
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS ALL OF LAKE MI THROUGH
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND HELP TO BRING A TRAILING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO...HOWEVER A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE WINDS A TAD TO 10 TO 20 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. FURTHER SOUTH THE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH
TUESDAY EVENING OF THE LAKE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING BACK
ACROSS THE LAKE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATED WITH A GENERAL TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY SOUTH
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
AID IN KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 20 KT.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
600 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
319 PM CST
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOR SNOW CHANCES...NAMELY TUE
NIGHT AND WED...AND THEN TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS IT
GETS CHALLENGING WEIGHING FACTORS SUCH AS CLOUD COVER...INCREASING
MARCH SUN ANGLE...SNOW COVER...AND FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...
A STRONG AND BARELY MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OF 1035MB IS IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA GOING INTO THIS EVE. WHILE HEIGHTS ARE
SLOWLY RISING ALOFT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WITHIN FAST
PACED WNW FLOW IS APPROACHING THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE ON WATER VAPOR IS SEEN ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WITH MID
CLOUD ALREADY INTO SOUTHWEST WI. THE RAP AND NAM SOLUTIONS OF
SIMULATED WATER VAPOR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND HAVE
INCORPORATED THAT APPROACH INTO SKY COVER FORECASTS TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING CLOUDY BY MID-EVE. THIS WILL MAKE IT TRICKY
AS THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS THIS
EVE BUT THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OFFSET THIS SOME. HAVE LEANED THE
MILDER ROUTE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...WITH A LIMITED DROP-OFF
THIS EVE AND THEN TEMPS CLIMBING OVERNIGHT. HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPS
FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHWEST IN WHERE MID CLOUDS
WILL TAKE THEIR LONGEST TO THICKEN.
THE FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL BE PRIMARILY TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO THIS SHORT WAVE...AS IT OFTEN IS
WITH THESE PROGRESSIVE ARE LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS.
THUS AM NOT TOO EXCITED FOR SNOW INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY DEEP ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SO HAVE
LEANED AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST 12Z NAM AND CLOSER TO THE RAP AND
GLOBAL MODELS...WITH POSSIBLY A DUSTING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-88.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES EARLY IN NORTHEAST
IL...THE DAYTIME TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A GAP BETWEEN WAVES
LIKELY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE. WITH A MUCH WARMER STARTING
POINT THAN TODAY...HIGHS LOOK TO REBOUND MORE TOWARD WHERE THEY
SHOULD BE GIVEN THE 925MB TEMPS...BUT FAR FROM WHERE THEY SHOULD
BE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE HAS A BETTER PATH TO FAVOR OUR AREA AND ALSO
HAS MORE ELONGATED /LONGER LASTING/ FORCING TIED TO ITS UPPER
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENESIS. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE AREA SEEING SNOW...NAMELY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING...AND IT MAKES GOOD SENSE GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. SO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS. THE SNOW LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT
GIVEN TOP DOWN METHOD AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES...WITH MODEST RATES
AT TIMES WHEREVER THAT WEST-TO-EAST BAROCLINIC GRADIENT OF THE
SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS. HAVE 1-2.5 INCHES FORECAST FOR A LOT OF THE
AREA. HOW MUCH A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY GETS INVOLVED WEDNESDAY WILL BE KEY AS WELL...AS THAT
COULD BOOST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. ALSO OF NOTE
IS POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SETUP ONCE AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT FOR NORTHEAST IL. MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS MORNING
WOULD POINT TOWARD NOT AS GOOD OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THERE ARE
SIGNS OF CONVERGENCE AND BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER RH...AND FOR THAT
HAVE CONTINUED POPS ACROSS CHICAGO INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MTF
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGH/LOW TEMPS...WITH LOW CHANCE POSSIBILITIES FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD.
GENERAL WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN SEVERAL WAVES OF
ENERGY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THESE
FEATURES AND RESULTANT QPF. ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO VARY WITH
THE STRENGTH OF A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AND THEN IS A TAD MORE BULLISH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...WHATEVER DEVELOPS SHOULD BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE
AND QUICKLY EXIT...AND WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. PATTERN TRIES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK WHILE SHOWING SIGNS OF SLIGHT WARMING...AS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE LARGE
VORT MAX SHIFTS EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. TAIL END OF THIS
ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AS WINDS
BACK AND WAA OCCURS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WARMER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW THEN POSSIBLE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT MOVE OVER THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH...THIS WARMING WILL BE BRIEF AS COLDER AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW PRE-DAWN THROUGH SUNRISE OR SO MONDAY
MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
* VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING BECOMING SOUTH TONIGHT.
* GREATER POTENTIAL OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MAINLY JUST
BEYOND THE 06Z END OF CURRENT ORD 30 HOUR TAF.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING.
WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT LIGHT/VARIABLE BETWEEN INFLUENCE OF HIGH
CENTER AND WEAK LAKE BREEZE...BUT WILL BACK MORE SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY TO FAR NORTHERN IL AND WI AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE WI/IL BORDER WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE ACCUMULATION.
TIMING STILL LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY 08Z-11Z AT RFD...09Z-12Z AT
ORD/MDW...THOUGH HAVE FORECAST A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC CONDITIONS IN
GENERAL ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH AT GYY. RFD LOOKS TO HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY.
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL END AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP LIFT IS NOTED...FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS DOES REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ATOP THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
STATIONARY FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME PERSISTENCE OF LOWER CLOUDS DURING THE DAY...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH RESPECT TO BOTH COVERAGE AND CEILING
HEIGHT. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH IT APPEARS SNOW CHANCES DO NOT REALLY INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL 06Z WED OR LATER.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IT WILL BE BETWEEN 250-150 DEG.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AND RESULTING CIG/VIS IMPACTS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING TRENDS TUESDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY. CHANCE OF
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
227 PM CST
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS ALL OF LAKE MI THROUGH
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND HELP TO BRING A TRAILING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO...HOWEVER A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE WINDS A TAD TO 10 TO 20 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. FURTHER SOUTH THE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH
TUESDAY EVENING OF THE LAKE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING BACK
ACROSS THE LAKE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATED WITH A GENERAL TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY SOUTH
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
AID IN KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 20 KT.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1155 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1025 AM CST
HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY EARLY FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT LAKE AND
PORTER COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THAT AREA.
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD
3 TO 4.5 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS MOVED EAST. THE
DRIVING JET STREAM TO LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL ALSO HAS INCHED ITS WAY
SOUTH WITH BETTER ASCENT NOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WHILE
SYNOPTIC SHOW COULD SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW ENTERING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...MUCH OF THAT SNOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA. COULD BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS WITH THE 20
MPH GUSTS WITHIN THE SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
A PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING INTO NORTHEAST LAKE AND NORTHWEST PORTER COUNTIES IN
INDIANA ENHANCED TOTALS IN ISOLATED AREAS TO OVER ONE HALF
FOOT...WITH THE LATEST REPORT OF 9.8 INCHES IN PORTAGE. THE BAND
HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE ILL-DEFINED...BUT THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH
CONVERGENCE FROM MID-LAKE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA CONTINUES. A
MESO-LOW PRESENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
EAST OF THE IL/WI STATE LINE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AS
WELL...AND MAY HELP TO RE-FOCUS/RE-INTENSIFY THE ONGOING LIGHT
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS POSSIBLY PUSH THEM BACK WEST SOMEWHAT. HAVE
A 1-3 INCH RANGE FORECAST NEAR THE LAKE IN INDIANA TODAY INTO
THIS EVE. THE 12Z NAM DOES HAVE ANOTHER MESO-LOW DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MI. CONVERGENCE
LOOKS TO BE DROPPING QUICKLY BY MORNING SO UNSURE HOW WELL-
ORGANIZED THAT WOULD BE.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
342 AM CST
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE ONGOING SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE
SNOW EVENT IS PLAYING OUT LARGELY AS ANTICIPATED. AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...THE BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA. AS OF 3AM CST...THE SNOW HAS ENDED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC BAND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SOUTH CHICAGO TO LA SALLE/PERU WITH SOME
LIGHTER SNOW STILL FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AND AS FAR WEST AS DE KALB AND THE MENDOTA
METRO AREA.
THE SHORT TERM...HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECT THE MAIN BAROCLINIC BAND TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH...WITH MUCH OF THE STEADIER SNOW COMING TO AN
END NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES COULD LINGER NORTH OF I-80 THIS MORNING...BUT FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE DOME. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE EFFECT PLUME
TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LATER TODAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT
WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP AND VERY COLD AIR
OVERSPREADING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MARGINALLY ADEQUATE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...SUGGESTS THAT THE A CONVERGENCE BAND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE LAKE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
CHANCE POPS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO
THE LAKE AS IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT ANY LAKE PLUME THAT DOES
DEVELOP COULD MEANDER AROUND...BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO AREAS OF FAR NERN IL AND NWRN IN. AN ACCUMULATIONS
THAT SO OCCUR SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ON THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH.
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...EXPECT THAT THE STEADY
MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND EVEN
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA.
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A RENSSELAER COULD
SEE UPWARDS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
HEAVIER BANDING MAY SET UP. LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH SHOULD END OF
WITH WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCH TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS EVENT.
AS THE SNOW WINDS DOWN...THE FORECAST CONCERN WILL SHIFT TO
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUING TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND THEN BECOME STEADY...WITH NO AFTERNOON WARMING...REMAINING
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
PERHAPS ONLY AS HIGH AS THE LOW TEENS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SPREADS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP WELL BELOW 0F
AWAY FROM THE URBANIZED AREAS OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...THOUGH
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR IN EAST CENTRAL IL AND NWRN IN
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL STILL BE TO THE WEST...CENTERED OVER
IOWA...THERE WILL STILL BE A WEAK NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO..WHILE THE LIGHT
WIND WILL LIMIT THE EFFECTS OF RADIATIVE COOLING...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY DROP TO -5F TO -10F WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND
THE I-55 CORRIDOR...WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO DROP WIND CHILL
READING TO -20 TO -25F. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THESE AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS
HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND TO NERN CONUS BY
TUESDAY...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS...WITH SOME
MODERATION INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S BY THURSDAY. SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE AROUND 40F FOR EARLY MARCH. AS A
DEEP UPPER LOW SITS OVER NERN CANADA AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN...FAST NWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SET UP...BRINGING A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES OUT OF
CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES,
WHILE THE GREATEST FORCING WITH THESE WEAK IMPULSES WILL FOCUS ALONG
A TRACK NORTH OF THE CWA...THERE WILL STILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A WARMING
TREND FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
AND WARM ADVECTION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC MAY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F. UNFORTUNATELY...
THIS WARMUP WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AS THE THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING OUT OF CANADA...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH HIGHS BY NEXT SATURDAY BACK IN THE LOW 30S.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NORTHWEST WINDS ARND 10-14KT FROM 330-350 DEG. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
TURN 310-330 DEG ARND DAYBREAK MON.
* PATCHY MVFR CIGS FOR MDW AIRFIELD THRU 20Z...THEN IMPROVING.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST STRETCHES
EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A
CLEARING IN THE SKY COVER TO NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS.
THERE REMAINS SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS FOR AIRFIELDS NEAREST TO LAKE
MICHIGAN...DUE PRIMARILY TO SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/FLURRIES/LIGHT
SNOW THAT CONTINUES. BUT THIS MAINLY IS FOCUSED IN NORTHWEST IN
AND IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH ARND 330-360
WITH SPEEDS HOVERING ARND 10-14KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY TURN TO NORTHWEST ARND DAYBREAK MON.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER...IT APPEARS THE BULK
OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE JUST CIRRUS AT BEST OVERNIGHT. SO MAINLY
EXPECT VFR CONDS TO DOMINATE THE TAFS.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODIC LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CST
A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHED FROM ALBERTA TO THE
CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD AND BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST BY MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY BUT
LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES MAY PLAY HAVOC WITH THE SPEED AND DIRECTION
DETAILS THROUGH THAT TIME. CONVERGENCE IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE LAKE
THIS MORNING WITH A NARROW PLUME OF SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
THIS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE MAY BE A CIRCULATION THAT WORKS
ITS WAY DOWN THE LAKE LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT AT A MINIMUM WIND SPEED WILL INCREASE ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF
THE CONVERGENT AXIS POTENTIALLY LEADING TO 25-30 KT GUSTS...WITH ANY
CIRCULATION COMPLICATING THE DIRECTION FORECAST. WILL GO AHEAD AND
CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
OCCURRING ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORELINE ALREADY THIS MORNING. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE DIRECTION SOUTHWEST THEN WEST FOR A TIME TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE LAKE TUESDAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
DOWN THE LAKE AT THAT TIME WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADING INTO
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SHIFT TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1129 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
Some adjustments to the headlines were made a few hours ago,
dropping the winter weather advisory across the northern third of
the CWA. Have held onto the remaining headlines for now.
Initial batch of precipitation has largely moved out of the area,
but continues in the southeast CWA late this morning. Had a fair
amount of sleet and freezing rain across that area earlier. LAPS
soundings for Lawrenceville shows a warmer layer at 800 mb around
+2C, which the RAP projects to last a few more hours, so
additional sleet/snow mix still possible into early afternoon
there. The RAP and HRRR also track some heavier bands of snow
along the I-70 corridor this afternoon, while the NAM has the band
closer to I-72. The trajectory of the snow across northern
Missouri would currently favor areas in between these two
interstates. Have updated the forecast to reflect another 2-3
inches in that area, and sharpened up the northern edge of the
precipitation chances this afternoon.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1128 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
Next wave of light snow spreading across the KSPI-KCMI corridor
early this afternoon. Will be some periods of MVFR conditions
associated with this snow, especially in areas just south of these
sites, while VFR conditions prevail further north. A general
clearing trend from the northwest will take place this evening.
North winds of 10-15 knots expected to persist much of the
forecast period, finally tailing off a bit by late Monday morning
as high pressure builds into the central Plains.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 246 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
SHORT TERM...Today and tonight
Snow band at 08Z/2AM had shifted south into much of central IL
along and north of I-72. Visibilities generally 1-2 miles with
brief reductions to a half mile. Have had a few very early morning
reports of 2-3 inches over the northern CWA where snow has been
falling for 6+ hours. Zone of mid level frontogenesis will
gradually sink south this morning with snow overspreading most of
the area through mid morning. Some enhanced bands noted in
northern MO associated with a shortwave and stronger lift,
dropping visibilities to a half mile, so accumulations up to a
half inch per hour possible at times past daybreak. Convective
elements noted on radar mosaic in srn/central MO which will spread
into areas south of I-70 likely as a mix of freezing rain and sleet.
Deep Arctic air filtering in off strong 1040 mb high over northern
Plains looks to shut down precip over the northern CWA later this
morning, with a possible lull for much of the area until a second
shortwave brings another round of snow to areas mainly south of
I-72 this afternoon. Forecast soundings continue to indicate a
warm wedge at 750 mb south of a Shelbyville to Paris line, which
would allow sleet to mix with snow north of I-70, and with a
deeper warm layer south of I-70, sleet and freezing rain look likely.
In this area colder air will gradually change precip over to snow
during the evening. The final, and strongest shortwave lifting out
of the Plains trough brings more significant snow accumulations
just south of the CWA overnight, with the northern fringe of
better lift keeping light to moderate snow over the far south past
06Z/midnight.
Overall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches look reasonable, with
locally higher amounts if better banding develops. Thus will keep
current advisory going, ending at 00Z/Mon with good model
agreement on quicker precip shutdown here. Farther south, snow
amounts alone would not justify keeping the warning going. However
with potential ice accumulations near a quarter inch south of
I-70, and sleet near 0.5 inch north to Shelbyville/Paris line, the
current warning will continue through tonight.
LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday
Arctic high settles toward the region Monday, bringing dry but very
cold weather. -10 to -14C 850 mb temps and fresh snow cover
suggest record lows quite possible Monday morning, and with highs
only reaching the teens, record low highs also possible. See
climate section below for specifics. With the center of the high
still to our west early, brisk northwest winds will likely require
wind chill advisory for the northwest half of the CWA. Will not
address this until current winter headlines expire. As the high
shifts east on Tuesday a gradual warming trend begins. Several
weak shortwaves passing through in northwest flow will bring
periods of light snow to parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes.
However with poor consistency on timing/location and overall dry
air mass will keep pops to slight chance. Mid level winds become
more zonal by mid to late week, and with rising heights temps
should rebound back closer to normal by Friday. Split flow keeps
main waves well to our north and south during this period. However
by late Friday and Saturday the next shortwave and frontal system
shifting east from the Plains will bring a chance of light rain or
snow to the region.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ054>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR
ILZ040>053.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1028 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1025 AM CST
HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY EARLY FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT LAKE AND
PORTER COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THAT AREA.
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD
3 TO 4.5 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS MOVED EAST. THE
DRIVING JET STREAM TO LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL ALSO HAS INCHED ITS WAY
SOUTH WITH BETTER ASCENT NOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WHILE
SYNOPTIC SHOW COULD SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW ENTERING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...MUCH OF THAT SNOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA. COULD BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS WITH THE 20
MPH GUSTS WITHIN THE SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
A PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING INTO NORTHEAST LAKE AND NORTHWEST PORTER COUNTIES IN
INDIANA ENHANCED TOTALS IN ISOLATED AREAS TO OVER ONE HALF
FOOT...WITH THE LATEST REPORT OF 9.8 INCHES IN PORTAGE. THE BAND
HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE ILL-DEFINED...BUT THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH
CONVERGENCE FROM MID-LAKE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA CONTINUES. A
MESO-LOW PRESENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
EAST OF THE IL/WI STATE LINE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AS
WELL...AND MAY HELP TO RE-FOCUS/RE-INTENSIFY THE ONGOING LIGHT
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS POSSIBLY PUSH THEM BACK WEST SOMEWHAT. HAVE
A 1-3 INCH RANGE FORECAST NEAR THE LAKE IN INDIANA TODAY INTO
THIS EVE. THE 12Z NAM DOES HAVE ANOTHER MESO-LOW DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MI. CONVERGENCE
LOOKS TO BE DROPPING QUICKLY BY MORNING SO UNSURE HOW WELL-
ORGANIZED THAT WOULD BE.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
342 AM CST
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE ONGOING SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE
SNOW EVENT IS PLAYING OUT LARGELY AS ANTICIPATED. AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...THE BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA. AS OF 3AM CST...THE SNOW HAS ENDED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC BAND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SOUTH CHICAGO TO LA SALLE/PERU WITH SOME
LIGHTER SNOW STILL FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AND AS FAR WEST AS DE KALB AND THE MENDOTA
METRO AREA.
THE SHORT TERM...HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECT THE MAIN BAROCLINIC BAND TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH...WITH MUCH OF THE STEADIER SNOW COMING TO AN
END NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES COULD LINGER NORTH OF I-80 THIS MORNING...BUT FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE DOME. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE EFFECT PLUME
TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LATER TODAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT
WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP AND VERY COLD AIR
OVERSPREADING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MARGINALLY ADEQUATE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...SUGGESTS THAT THE A CONVERGENCE BAND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE LAKE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
CHANCE POPS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO
THE LAKE AS IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT ANY LAKE PLUME THAT DOES
DEVELOP COULD MEANDER AROUND...BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO AREAS OF FAR NERN IL AND NWRN IN. AN ACCUMULATIONS
THAT SO OCCUR SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ON THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH.
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...EXPECT THAT THE STEADY
MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND EVEN
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA.
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A RENSSELAER COULD
SEE UPWARDS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
HEAVIER BANDING MAY SET UP. LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH SHOULD END OF
WITH WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCH TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS EVENT.
AS THE SNOW WINDS DOWN...THE FORECAST CONCERN WILL SHIFT TO
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUING TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND THEN BECOME STEADY...WITH NO AFTERNOON WARMING...REMAINING
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
PERHAPS ONLY AS HIGH AS THE LOW TEENS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SPREADS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP WELL BELOW 0F
AWAY FROM THE URBANIZED AREAS OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...THOUGH
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR IN EAST CENTRAL IL AND NWRN IN
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL STILL BE TO THE WEST...CENTERED OVER
IOWA...THERE WILL STILL BE A WEAK NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO..WHILE THE LIGHT
WIND WILL LIMIT THE EFFECTS OF RADIATIVE COOLING...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY DROP TO -5F TO -10F WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND
THE I-55 CORRIDOR...WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO DROP WIND CHILL
READING TO -20 TO -25F. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THESE AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS
HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND TO NERN CONUS BY
TUESDAY...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS...WITH SOME
MODERATION INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S BY THURSDAY. SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE AROUND 40F FOR EARLY MARCH. AS A
DEEP UPPER LOW SITS OVER NERN CANADA AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN...FAST NWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SET UP...BRINGING A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES OUT OF
CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES,
WHILE THE GREATEST FORCING WITH THESE WEAK IMPULSES WILL FOCUS ALONG
A TRACK NORTH OF THE CWA...THERE WILL STILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A WARMING
TREND FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
AND WARM ADVECTION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC MAY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F. UNFORTUNATELY...
THIS WARMUP WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AS THE THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING OUT OF CANADA...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH HIGHS BY NEXT SATURDAY BACK IN THE LOW 30S.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SCT-BKN MVFR SKIES
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
* WINDS BETWEEN 330-350 DEG AND SPEEDS 10-15KT THRU THE DAY.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
BANDS OF SNOW CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE BACK EDGE
FINALLY WORKING ACROSS THE CHICAGO TERMINALS. HAD SEEN NEW
DEVELOPMENT ON THIS BACK EDGE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE
FORCING WHICH HELPED DRIVE THAT IS OFF TO THE EAST SO AM EXPECTING
THAT THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END AT ORD/MDW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. GYY MAY REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THE SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING
SO WILL CARRY LIGHT SNOW THERE WITH MINIMAL VSBY RESTRICTION BY
MID MORNING. A NARROW BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES NEAR THE
LAKE AND PORTER COUNTY INDIANA BORDER NEAR OR JUST WEST OF BURNS
HARBOR AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE DAY AS IT MAY TRY
TO MEANDER WESTWARD TOWARDS GYY. AM THINKING THIS IS A PRETTY LOW
CHANCE BUT SHOULD A SMALL SCALE LOW DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE AND MOVE
SOUTHWARD THE BAND COULD BE PUSHED BACK TOWARDS GYY AND PERHAPS TO
THE ILLINOIS SHORELINE. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTH WITH THE SNOW WITH RECENT TRENDS SUPPORTING THIS. THIS WILL
LEAVE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE THE MID
CLOUD COVER EXIT AROUND MIDDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME MVFR
LEVEL STRATOCU COULD DEVELOP FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT HAVE A
GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN EASING OF SPEEDS
TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING FORECAST.
MDB/BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODIC LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CST
A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHED FROM ALBERTA TO THE
CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD AND BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST BY MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY BUT
LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES MAY PLAY HAVOC WITH THE SPEED AND DIRECTION
DETAILS THROUGH THAT TIME. CONVERGENCE IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE LAKE
THIS MORNING WITH A NARROW PLUME OF SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
THIS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE MAY BE A CIRCULATION THAT WORKS
ITS WAY DOWN THE LAKE LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT AT A MINIMUM WIND SPEED WILL INCREASE ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF
THE CONVERGENT AXIS POTENTIALLY LEADING TO 25-30 KT GUSTS...WITH ANY
CIRCULATION COMPLICATING THE DIRECTION FORECAST. WILL GO AHEAD AND
CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
OCCURRING ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORELINE ALREADY THIS MORNING. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE DIRECTION SOUTHWEST THEN WEST FOR A TIME TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE LAKE TUESDAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
DOWN THE LAKE AT THAT TIME WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADING INTO
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SHIFT TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1017 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
Some adjustments to the headlines were made a few hours ago,
dropping the winter weather advisory across the northern third of
the CWA. Have held onto the remaining headlines for now.
Initial batch of precipitation has largely moved out of the area,
but continues in the southeast CWA late this morning. Had a fair
amount of sleet and freezing rain across that area earlier. LAPS
soundings for Lawrenceville shows a warmer layer at 800 mb around
+2C, which the RAP projects to last a few more hours, so
additional sleet/snow mix still possible into early afternoon
there. The RAP and HRRR also track some heavier bands of snow
along the I-70 corridor this afternoon, while the NAM has the band
closer to I-72. The trajectory of the snow across northern
Missouri would currently favor areas in between these two
interstates. Have updated the forecast to reflect another 2-3
inches in that area, and sharpened up the northern edge of the
precipitation chances this afternoon.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
The initial wave of precipitation is beginning to diminish from NW
to SE, as the first upper wave departs toward Indiana. There will
be a break in the snowfall for all the TAF sites beginning by 13z
for PIA and SPI and by 15z for CMI. The high resolution guidance
is still indicating another push of precipitation this afternoon
affecting areas generally along and south of I-72. This may bring
another period of light snow to SPI and DEC, but little additional
accumulation is expected this afternoon toward I-72 and our
southern terminal sites. The bulk of any precip this afternoon
should remain farther south of I-70.
Clouds should improve to VFR shortly after the snow ends this
morning, and remain VFR for the rest of the TAF period. There is a
chance that the shortwave this afternoon could produce some MVFR
clouds for SPI and DEC, and we included some MVFR at SPI for now.
VFR conditions will prevail everywhere by evening and continue
overnight.
Winds will be gusty from the north today as high pressure advances
into IL from the NW. Steady winds in the 15-17kt range with gusts
to 25kt at times. Winds will diminish this evening but could
remain in the 10-13kt range at least through the evening.
Shimon
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 246 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
SHORT TERM...Today and tonight
Snow band at 08Z/2AM had shifted south into much of central IL
along and north of I-72. Visibilities generally 1-2 miles with
brief reductions to a half mile. Have had a few very early morning
reports of 2-3 inches over the northern CWA where snow has been
falling for 6+ hours. Zone of mid level frontogenesis will
gradually sink south this morning with snow overspreading most of
the area through mid morning. Some enhanced bands noted in
northern MO associated with a shortwave and stronger lift,
dropping visibilities to a half mile, so accumulations up to a
half inch per hour possible at times past daybreak. Convective
elements noted on radar mosaic in srn/central MO which will spread
into areas south of I-70 likely as a mix of freezing rain and sleet.
Deep Arctic air filtering in off strong 1040 mb high over northern
Plains looks to shut down precip over the northern CWA later this
morning, with a possible lull for much of the area until a second
shortwave brings another round of snow to areas mainly south of
I-72 this afternoon. Forecast soundings continue to indicate a
warm wedge at 750 mb south of a Shelbyville to Paris line, which
would allow sleet to mix with snow north of I-70, and with a
deeper warm layer south of I-70, sleet and freezing rain look likely.
In this area colder air will gradually change precip over to snow
during the evening. The final, and strongest shortwave lifting out
of the Plains trough brings more significant snow accumulations
just south of the CWA overnight, with the northern fringe of
better lift keeping light to moderate snow over the far south past
06Z/midnight.
Overall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches look reasonable, with
locally higher amounts if better banding develops. Thus will keep
current advisory going, ending at 00Z/Mon with good model
agreement on quicker precip shutdown here. Farther south, snow
amounts alone would not justify keeping the warning going. However
with potential ice accumulations near a quarter inch south of
I-70, and sleet near 0.5 inch north to Shelbyville/Paris line, the
current warning will continue through tonight.
LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday
Arctic high settles toward the region Monday, bringing dry but very
cold weather. -10 to -14C 850 mb temps and fresh snow cover
suggest record lows quite possible Monday morning, and with highs
only reaching the teens, record low highs also possible. See
climate section below for specifics. With the center of the high
still to our west early, brisk northwest winds will likely require
wind chill advisory for the northwest half of the CWA. Will not
address this until current winter headlines expire. As the high
shifts east on Tuesday a gradual warming trend begins. Several
weak shortwaves passing through in northwest flow will bring
periods of light snow to parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes.
However with poor consistency on timing/location and overall dry
air mass will keep pops to slight chance. Mid level winds become
more zonal by mid to late week, and with rising heights temps
should rebound back closer to normal by Friday. Split flow keeps
main waves well to our north and south during this period. However
by late Friday and Saturday the next shortwave and frontal system
shifting east from the Plains will bring a chance of light rain or
snow to the region.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ054>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR
ILZ040>053.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1204 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
317 PM CST
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO CENTER ON THE SNOW AMOUNTS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A VERY IMPRESSIVE
MID/UPPER CIRCULATION ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...NOW APPROACHING
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS CLOSED SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG BELT OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES HAS SET UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE VORTEX OVER THE
HUDSON BAY. THIS STRONG FLOW IS EJECTING NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES APPEAR TO BE INDUCING SOME ENHANCED ASCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AS NOTED BY
THE MORE INTENSE AREAS OF SNOWFALL SHOWING UP ON RADAR. ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW HAS MAINLY BEEN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THUS FAR...THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS A
STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE...ASSOCIATED WITH AN 850 MB FRONT...SAGS
SOUTHWARD INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF
SOME DECENT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS SOME GOOD
FRONTOGENETIC INDUCED FORCING FOR ASCENT SETS UP OVER THE AREA. THIS
GOOD FORCING SHOULD ALSO CORRESPOND WITH SOME DECENT MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...PER BOTH MODEL AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS...LIKELY
SUPPORTING SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RATES AT TIMES.
IT APPEARS THAT THIS STRONGLY FORCED SNOW EVENT WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT
LIVED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN RATHER
PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME GOOD RATES AT TIMES
THIS EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT A SHORTER DURATION WILL KEEP SNOW
TOTALS IN CHECK...LIKELY REMAINING LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THROUGH. AS
SUCH...I THINK MOST AREAS WILL END UP CLOSER TO A 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH SOME AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN SOME AREAS.
THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES
LATER THIS EVENING...WHILE ENDING FAR NORTH LATER TONIGHT. IT
APPEARS THAT THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE VORTEX OVER THE HUDSON BAY BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION...DRIER AND COLDER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE FORCED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW AMOUNTS MAY END UP UNDER 6 INCHES
ACROSS EVEN MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS WELL. THE SNOW MAY TO OVER FOR
MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
THE ONLY OTHER THREAT FOR SNOW...WILL BE FROM SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THERMODYNAMICS FAVORABLE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. SOME OF THE
HIGHER RES GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS THAT A MESO LOW MAY SHIFT DOWN THE
LAKE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME BETTER
ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY
REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS SHORES...AS THE FLOW SHOULD
REMAIN MORE NORTHWEST. IN SPITE OF THIS...I DID LEAVE SOME LOW END
POPS NEAR THE LAKE FOR THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT COME ONSHORE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE...BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.
THE MAIN STORY AFTER THE SNOW WILL BE A RETURN TO SOME COLD AIR. IT
APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...POSSIBLY REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW 20S BY TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
KJB
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGH/LOW TEMPS...WITH LOW CHANCE POSSIBILITIES FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD.
GENERAL WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN SEVERAL WAVES OF
ENERGY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THESE
FEATURES AND RESULTANT QPF. ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO VARY WITH
THE STRENGTH OF A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AND THEN IS A TAD MORE BULLISH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...WHATEVER DEVELOPS SHOULD BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE AND QUICKLY EXIT...AND WITH THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. PATTERN TRIES TO BECOME
MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WHILE SHOWING SIGNS OF SLIGHT
WARMING...AS LARGE SCALE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WHILE LARGE VORT MAX SHIFTS EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA. TAIL END OF THIS ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK...AS WINDS BACK AND WAA OCCURS OUT AHEAD OF IT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY
FRIDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THEN POSSIBLE AS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT MOVE OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...THIS WARMING
WILL BE BRIEF AS COLDER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SNOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS NEXT 2-3
HOURS...BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB 1SM VSBY STILL POSSIBLE.
* MAINLY MVFR CIGS NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VARIABLE MVFR/VFR BEYOND
THAT.
* LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING. CIGS
IMPROVING TO STEADY VFR.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
THE MAIN FORCING DRIVING SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS AT THE
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH GYY WILL SEE A LONGER
DURATION OF SNOWFALL AND ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF 1/2-3/4SM VSBY.
UNTIL THEN...VARIABLE IFR VSBY WILL CONTINUE AT ORD/MDW/DPA WITH
A TREND TOWARDS MVFR VSBY AS SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH. LIGHTER SNOW WILL
THEN LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL RESULT
IN ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AND LESS VSBY REDUCTION. RFD
SHOULD SEE A QUICKER END TO THE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED VSBY
REDUCTIONS. CIGS REMAIN RATHER VARIABLE BUT MAINLY MVFR. STEADIER
VFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TERMINALS BUT
SOLID VFR LOOKS TO TAKE A WHILE TO REACH THE AREA SO WILL CARRY A
MIX OF MVFR/VFR CLOUDS BEHIND THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH LATE MORNING
AT ORD/MDW/DPA BUT CHANCES FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LOOKING
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT WITH ANY BANDS EXPECTED TO SET UP WELL
OFFSHORE. GYY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGER SCALE SNOW WHICH WILL
STILL BE GRADUALLY WORKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING BUT MAY
ALSO BE IN LINE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS WELL...THOUGH ANY
BANDS MAY REMAIN TO THE EAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING IN FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON THOUGH
SOME SCATTERED MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS COULD LINGER. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW INTENSITY/VSBY TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODIC LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
1248 PM CST
BY AND LARGE RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE LAKE THE
NEXT WEEK OR SO...THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT A LAKE
ENHANCED MESO-LOW DEVELOPING AND DROPPING SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE
RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF 25-30KT NORTHERLY WINDS TRACK SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THIS SMALL SCALE LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY.
GIVEN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE IN THE HIGHER RES
GUIDANCE WILL BE ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THIS
PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL
MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012 UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022 UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...6 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1112 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 852 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
Band of snow that was to our northwest thru most of the day has
finally made it into west central and central Illinois and we
should see it fill in much more across the area over the next
3 to 4 hours. Preceding the snow, we have had areas of freezing
drizzle over east central and central Illinois as the cloud top
layer was supporting mainly supercooled water droplets. However,
after about a 1 to 2 hour period, ice crystals are introduced
resulting in a transition over to snow, similar to what is
occurring now over parts of west central and central Illinois.
Latest HRRR model suggests the transition zone from freezing
drizzle, sleet and snow will settle to along or just south of I72
by midnight, with snow to the north. Snowfall totals in the band
to our northwest from this afternoon thru early this evening have
ranged from 2 to 4 inches, so see no reason we shouldn`t see
similar reports in our north late tonight into Sunday morning.
Have already updated the zones earlier this evening to address
the timing of the snow and freezing drizzle across the north.
The remainder of the forecast is in good shape so am not planning
on any additional zone updates at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1105 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
Snow increasing in coverage over parts of northeast Missouri and
that is tracking east towards our southern TAF sites late tonight.
Further north, the band of snow that moved in during the evening
and that is affecting the I74 corridor will continue to slowly
settle south as the night wears on. Expect MVFR cigs with tempo
IFR to LIFR cigs/vsbys in some of the heavier snow bands overnight.
Still could see some snow and freezing drizzle mix in at times
at SPI and DEC before snow becomes the dominant precip type. Still
seeing some hints of the snow shifting south of of PIA and BMI sites
after 18z and will continue to trend in that direction but keep MVFR
cigs/vsbys going further south into the afternoon hours as models
were suggesting another band of snow setting up in that area after
18z. Accumulations across the TAF sites look to be in the 3 to 6
inch range with the heavier totals in an axis extending from
Jacksonville and SPI east-northeast towards CMI.
Surface winds will remain from the northeast to north at 12 to 17kts
tonight with winds backing more into a 340-010 direction by late
Sunday morning into the afternoon hours with similar speeds.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 310 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tomorrow night...
Storm developing over the west coast, expected to move in and move
along an elongated piece of energy hovering with the quasi
baroclinic zone across the Midwest. The initial impact of
precip/snow for the FA will be frontogenetic in nature before
changing over to more of a deformation zone. Details are changing
as far as the duration of the precip, now ending sooner...the
thermal profiles, altering ptype...and the locations of the best
heavy snowfall potential. All models have been backing off of
precip at times, while still pointing to banding and mesoscale
enhancements to the snowfall. Enough borderline conditions in a
couple of time frames to raise concerns for impact based warnings.
Changed the product headlines across the area to reflect this. One
major concern is the changing thermal profile in the SE. Should
the evaporative cooling eliminate the very subtle warm layer in
the mid levels (GFS is far more subtle and shallow than the NAM),
the QPF will be even more dedicated to snow. This would result in
higher amounts. This, in addition to the proximity to the greatest
chance for mixed precip and signif ice potential, is the reason for
the Winter Storm Warning. Though criteria may be missed as this is
over more than a 24 hr time frame...impact and collaboration have
resulted in that warning decision. Elsewhere...the QPF is
currently outside of the warning criteria over any 24 hr pd and
trending down. That being said, a lot of snow is coming.
Isentropic lift is weak at best over ILX, more signif to the
south. Fn vectors maxed over saturated 1000-500mb RH supporting
the frontogenetic forcing from 03z-12z over ILX. At that point the
movement stalls somewhat as the sfc system begins to develop over
the southwest and move NE through the region. Where exactly the
storm stalls will greatly impact ILX. Too far south and the totals
may need to be knocked down even further. A little further to the
north and the weak deformation region will shift. HPC snow totals
not in complete agreement with the QPF, and as a result have kept
the warning area as conservative as possible. Situation will be
very subject to adjustments through the overnight hours. Last
couple runs have brought the precip to an end sooner...with the
NAM and the GFS both out of the CWA by 12z Monday morning.
LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
More cold air for the extended. Mon-Thursday still well below
freezing. Although Friday is showing signs of a warm up, the WAA
looks a bit weak at this point. Brief waves bringing quick shot of
precip possibly on Wed across the north. Otherwise, dry beyond
the current storm.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ054>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Sunday FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>043-047>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ044>046.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
332 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
TODAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA...WHILE SNOW WILL BE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
RADAR MOSAIC AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF AN APPROXIMATE SULLIVAN TO SHELBYVILLE
LINE. DRY AIR IS WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AND SHORT TERM
MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A BREAK IN THE SOLID AREA OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ANOTHER SOLID AREA OF PRECIP MOVING IN
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 19-21Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET TO MIX IN WILL CONTINUE AT KBMG SO ADDED A
CHANCE FOR THIS BACK IN FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CATEGORICAL
SNOW. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL TO STICK AROUND
AWHILE LONGER HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX IN THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. KEPT
CATEGORICAL POPS GOING IN THE SOUTH WITH THE SOLID PRECIP SHIELD SO
CLOSE ALTHOUGH THEY COULD ALSO SEE BRIEF BREAKS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS WELL. IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
FAVORING THE ENTRENCHMENT OF THE DRY AIR AND AWAY FROM ANY SORT OF
CONTINUED PRECIP SO DROPPED POPS THERE TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CANCELLED THE ADVISORY. THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY ALSO STRUGGLE
TO SEE MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LOCATION OF
THE SNOW BANDS IN THE RAPID UPDATE MODELS BUT CLOSE ENOUGH CALL AT
THIS POINT TO KEEP WARNING GOING AND REEVALUATE LATER AS THE SNOW
BANDS DEVELOP AND LOCATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR. RIGHT NOW RAP AND
HRRR ARE SHOWING A MID AFTERNOON BAND AND THEN ANOTHER BAND IN THE
EVENING WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SO TRENDED
IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE POPS BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO DROP THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES JUST YET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT AS THE STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS QUICKLY INTO
KENTUCKY. BEST FORCING AS SEEN BY THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION REMAINS ACROSS KENTUCKY...CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THAT AT TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER 00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THUS WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z
MONDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD MIXING OVER THE FRESH SNOW. WILL USE A BLEND
ON LOWS.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE QUICK FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL SURELY BRING A FEW CI PASSING FROM TIME TO TIME
IN THE FLOW. GOOD MID LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THUS WILL AIM
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS ON MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN PLACE MONDAY AND THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL TREND MONDAY HIGHS AND MONDAY NIGHTS LOWS COOLER THAN MAVMOS.
ON TUESDAY THE COLD AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AS 850MB
TEMPS HOLD AROUND -8C. MAVMOS HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
APPEAR TOO WARM GIVEN THIS SET-UP AND WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THEN.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD ARCTIC AIR LOOK TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM HERE STILL LOOKS
TOO COLD WHILE THE GFS 850MB TEMPS TRY AND MODERATE WARMER. WILL
USE A BLEND ON TUESDAY HIGHS AND STICK CLOSE TO MEXMOS FOR LOWS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND. PREFER THE GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES
PLACEMENT OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE RIDGING LINGERS
BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THEN TRACKS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC...THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND ENABLE A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE
POPS...WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS SUPPORTING POTENTIALLY A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO RETURN WITH DRY
WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
COLD START TO THE EXTENDED WITH A STEADY WARMUP INTO THE 40S FOR
MANY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT CERTAINLY MUCH MORE PLEASANT THAN
RECENT TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 022100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
CHANGED PREVAILING CEILINGS TO MVFR BASED ON TRENDS AND UPSTREAM
OBS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WORTH NOTING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO THIS EVENING...IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY MONDAY.
COMPLEX AND STRUNG OUT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST AREA IN A LULL CURRENTLY AS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.
NEXT WAVE GATHERING STRENGTH WITH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT FROM MISSOURI
EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL EXPAND
E/NE AND IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 BY MID AFTERNOON
WITH A RENEWED BOUT OF SNOW AT KBMG/KHUF/KIND. IMPACTS LIKELY TO
BE GREATER AT KBMG AND KHUF WITH POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES TO
DROP BELOW 1SM. IN ADDITION WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STILL A BIT
STRONGER AT KBMG...MAY SEE SLEET OCCASIONALLY MIX IN THERE BEFORE
THE COLDER AIR TAKES HOLD BY LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW IS DONE AT
KLAF...BUT DO EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO WORK BACK INTO THE TERMINAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND SPORADIC GUSTS INTO THE 20-25KT
RANGE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SECONDARY WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY EARLY EVENING
WITH SNOW BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED. YET ANOTHER SURGE
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN INDIANA BY LATE EVENING MAY
BRING LIGHT SNOW AT KBMG...OTHERWISE EXPECT SNOW TO END IN THE
03-06Z TIME PERIOD AS THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE HIGH EXPANDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS DRY OUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH A MID LEVEL DECK BECOMING
PREDOMINANT. AS THIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING...SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. NORTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 10KTS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ036-037-
039>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
TODAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA...WHILE SNOW WILL BE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
RADAR MOSAIC AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF AN APPROXIMATE SULLIVAN TO SHELBYVILLE
LINE. DRY AIR IS WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AND SHORT TERM
MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A BREAK IN THE SOLID AREA OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ANOTHER SOLID AREA OF PRECIP MOVING IN
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 19-21Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET TO MIX IN WILL CONTINUE AT KBMG SO ADDED A
CHANCE FOR THIS BACK IN FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CATEGORICAL SNOW.
WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL TO STICK AROUND AWHILE
LONGER HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX IN THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. KEPT CATEGORICAL
POPS GOING IN THE SOUTH WITH THE SOLID PRECIP SHIELD SO CLOSE
ALTHOUGH THEY COULD ALSO SEE BRIEF BREAKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS WELL. IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
FAVORING THE ENTRENCHMENT OF THE DRY AIR AND AWAY FROM ANY SORT OF
CONTINUED PRECIP SO DROPPED POPS THERE TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CANCELLED THE ADVISORY. THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY ALSO
STRUGGLE TO SEE MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE
LOCATION OF THE SNOW BANDS IN THE RAPID UPDATE MODELS BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT TO KEEP WARNING GOING AND REEVALUATE
LATER AS THE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP AND LOCATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
RIGHT NOW RAP AND HRRR ARE SHOWING A MID AFTERNOON BAND AND THEN
ANOTHER BAND IN THE EVENING WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 SO TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE POPS BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DROP THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES JUST YET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT AS THE STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS QUICKLY INTO
KENTUCKY. BEST FORCING AS SEEN BY THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION REMAINS ACROSS KENTUCKY...CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THAT AT TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER 00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THUS WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z
MONDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD MIXING OVER THE FRESH SNOW. WILL USE A BLEND
ON LOWS.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE QUICK FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL SURELY BRING A FEW CI PASSING FROM TIME TO TIME
IN THE FLOW. GOOD MID LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THUS WILL AIM
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS ON MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN PLACE MONDAY AND THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL TREND MONDAY HIGHS AND MONDAY NIGHTS LOWS COOLER THAN MAVMOS.
ON TUESDAY THE COLD AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AS 850MB
TEMPS HOLD AROUND -8C. MAVMOS HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
APPEAR TOO WARM GIVEN THIS SET-UP AND WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THEN.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD ARCTIC AIR LOOK TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM HERE STILL LOOKS
TOO COLD WHILE THE GFS 850MB TEMPS TRY AND MODERATE WARMER. WILL
USE A BLEND ON TUESDAY HIGHS AND STICK CLOSE TO MEXMOS FOR LOWS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND. PREFER THE GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES
PLACEMENT OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE RIDGING LINGERS
BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THEN TRACKS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC...THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND ENABLE A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE
POPS...WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS SUPPORTING POTENTIALLY A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO RETURN WITH DRY
WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
COLD START TO THE EXTENDED WITH A STEADY WARMUP INTO THE 40S FOR
MANY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT CERTAINLY MUCH MORE PLEASANT THAN
RECENT TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO THIS EVENING...IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY MONDAY.
COMPLEX AND STRUNG OUT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST AREA IN A LULL CURRENTLY AS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.
NEXT WAVE GATHERING STRENGTH WITH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT FROM MISSOURI
EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL EXPAND
E/NE AND IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 BY MID AFTERNOON
WITH A RENEWED BOUT OF SNOW AT KBMG/KHUF/KIND. IMPACTS LIKELY TO
BE GREATER AT KBMG AND KHUF WITH POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES TO
DROP BELOW 1SM. IN ADDITION WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STILL A BIT
STRONGER AT KBMG...MAY SEE SLEET OCCASIONALLY MIX IN THERE BEFORE
THE COLDER AIR TAKES HOLD BY LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW IS DONE AT
KLAF...BUT DO EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO WORK BACK INTO THE TERMINAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND SPORADIC GUSTS INTO THE 20-25KT
RANGE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SECONDARY WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY EARLY EVENING
WITH SNOW BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED. YET ANOTHER SURGE
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN INDIANA BY LATE EVENING MAY
BRING LIGHT SNOW AT KBMG...OTHERWISE EXPECT SNOW TO END IN THE
03-06Z TIME PERIOD AS THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE HIGH EXPANDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS DRY OUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH A MID LEVEL DECK BECOMING
PREDOMINANT. AS THIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING...SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. NORTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 10KTS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ036-037-
039>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1240 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
TODAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA...WHILE SNOW WILL BE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
RADAR MOSAIC AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF AN APPROXIMATE SULLIVAN TO SHELBYVILLE
LINE. DRY AIR IS WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AND SHORT TERM
MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A BREAK IN THE SOLID AREA OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ANOTHER SOLID AREA OF PRECIP MOVING IN
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 19-21Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET TO MIX IN WILL CONTINUE AT KBMG SO ADDED A
CHANCE FOR THIS BACK IN FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CATEGORICAL SNOW.
WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL TO STICK AROUND AWHILE
LONGER HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX IN THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. KEPT CATEGORICAL
POPS GOING IN THE SOUTH WITH THE SOLID PRECIP SHIELD SO CLOSE
ALTHOUGH THEY COULD ALSO SEE BRIEF BREAKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS WELL. IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
FAVORING THE ENTRENCHMENT OF THE DRY AIR AND AWAY FROM ANY SORT OF
CONTINUED PRECIP SO DROPPED POPS THERE TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CANCELLED THE ADVISORY. THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY ALSO
STRUGGLE TO SEE MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE
LOCATION OF THE SNOW BANDS IN THE RAPID UPDATE MODELS BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT TO KEEP WARNING GOING AND REEVALUATE
LATER AS THE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP AND LOCATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
RIGHT NOW RAP AND HRRR ARE SHOWING A MID AFTERNOON BAND AND THEN
ANOTHER BAND IN THE EVENING WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 SO TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE POPS BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DROP THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES JUST YET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT AS THE STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS QUICKLY INTO
KENTUCKY. BEST FORCING AS SEEN BY THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION REMAINS ACROSS KENTUCKY...CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THAT AT TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER 00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THUS WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z
MONDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD MIXING OVER THE FRESH SNOW. WILL USE A BLEND
ON LOWS.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE QUICK FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL SURELY BRING A FEW CI PASSING FROM TIME TO TIME
IN THE FLOW. GOOD MID LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THUS WILL AIM
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS ON MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN PLACE MONDAY AND THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL TREND MONDAY HIGHS AND MONDAY NIGHTS LOWS COOLER THAN MAVMOS.
ON TUESDAY THE COLD AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AS 850MB
TEMPS HOLD AROUND -8C. MAVMOS HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
APPEAR TOO WARM GIVEN THIS SET-UP AND WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THEN.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD ARCTIC AIR LOOK TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM HERE STILL LOOKS
TOO COLD WHILE THE GFS 850MB TEMPS TRY AND MODERATE WARMER. WILL
USE A BLEND ON TUESDAY HIGHS AND STICK CLOSE TO MEXMOS FOR LOWS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...AND A DEEP
CUT-OFF LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE DEEP SOUTH. ALL PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THOUGH. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...PARTIAL THICKNESSES ARE INDICATING
PRECIP PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH CAN
EXPECT ALL SNOW. WEAK WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH COURSE
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO THIS EVENING...IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY MONDAY.
COMPLEX AND STRUNG OUT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST AREA IN A LULL CURRENTLY AS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.
NEXT WAVE GATHERING STRENGTH WITH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT FROM MISSOURI
EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL EXPAND
E/NE AND IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 BY MID AFTERNOON
WITH A RENEWED BOUT OF SNOW AT KBMG/KHUF/KIND. IMPACTS LIKELY TO
BE GREATER AT KBMG AND KHUF WITH POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES TO
DROP BELOW 1SM. IN ADDITION WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STILL A BIT
STRONGER AT KBMG...MAY SEE SLEET OCCASIONALLY MIX IN THERE BEFORE
THE COLDER AIR TAKES HOLD BY LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW IS DONE AT
KLAF...BUT DO EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO WORK BACK INTO THE TERMINAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND SPORADIC GUSTS INTO THE 20-25KT
RANGE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SECONDARY WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY EARLY EVENING
WITH SNOW BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED. YET ANOTHER SURGE
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN INDIANA BY LATE EVENING MAY
BRING LIGHT SNOW AT KBMG...OTHERWISE EXPECT SNOW TO END IN THE
03-06Z TIME PERIOD AS THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE HIGH EXPANDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS DRY OUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH A MID LEVEL DECK BECOMING
PREDOMINANT. AS THIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING...SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. NORTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 10KTS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ036-037-
039>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1053 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
TODAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA...WHILE SNOW WILL BE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
RADAR MOSAIC AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF AN APPROXIMATE SULLIVAN TO SHELBYVILLE
LINE. DRY AIR IS WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AND SHORT TERM
MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A BREAK IN THE SOLID AREA OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ANOTHER SOLID AREA OF PRECIP MOVING IN
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 19-21Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET TO MIX IN WILL CONTINUE AT KBMG SO ADDED A
CHANCE FOR THIS BACK IN FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CATEGORICAL SNOW.
WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL TO STICK AROUND AWHILE
LONGER HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX IN THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. KEPT CATEGORICAL
POPS GOING IN THE SOUTH WITH THE SOLID PRECIP SHIELD SO CLOSE
ALTHOUGH THEY COULD ALSO SEE BRIEF BREAKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS WELL. IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
FAVORING THE ENTRENCHMENT OF THE DRY AIR AND AWAY FROM ANY SORT OF
CONTINUED PRECIP SO DROPPED POPS THERE TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CANCELLED THE ADVISORY. THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY ALSO
STRUGGLE TO SEE MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE
LOCATION OF THE SNOW BANDS IN THE RAPID UPDATE MODELS BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT TO KEEP WARNING GOING AND REEVALUATE
LATER AS THE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP AND LOCATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
RIGHT NOW RAP AND HRRR ARE SHOWING A MID AFTERNOON BAND AND THEN
ANOTHER BAND IN THE EVENING WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 SO TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE POPS BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DROP THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES JUST YET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT AS THE STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS QUICKLY INTO
KENTUCKY. BEST FORCING AS SEEN BY THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION REMAINS ACROSS KENTUCKY...CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THAT AT TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER 00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THUS WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z
MONDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD MIXING OVER THE FRESH SNOW. WILL USE A BLEND
ON LOWS.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE QUICK FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL SURELY BRING A FEW CI PASSING FROM TIME TO TIME
IN THE FLOW. GOOD MID LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THUS WILL AIM
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS ON MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN PLACE MONDAY AND THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL TREND MONDAY HIGHS AND MONDAY NIGHTS LOWS COOLER THAN MAVMOS.
ON TUESDAY THE COLD AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AS 850MB
TEMPS HOLD AROUND -8C. MAVMOS HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
APPEAR TOO WARM GIVEN THIS SET-UP AND WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THEN.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD ARCTIC AIR LOOK TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM HERE STILL LOOKS
TOO COLD WHILE THE GFS 850MB TEMPS TRY AND MODERATE WARMER. WILL
USE A BLEND ON TUESDAY HIGHS AND STICK CLOSE TO MEXMOS FOR LOWS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...AND A DEEP
CUT-OFF LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE DEEP SOUTH. ALL PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THOUGH. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...PARTIAL THICKNESSES ARE INDICATING
PRECIP PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH CAN
EXPECT ALL SNOW. WEAK WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH COURSE
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 941 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE 15Z UPDATE THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW WHICH HAS
IMPACTED KHUF AND KIND SINCE 1330Z HAS NOW SHIFTED SOUTH OF BOTH
SITES. SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET...WILL CONTINUE AT KBMG FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT A BREAK FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.
HRRR SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW SET TO IMPACT KBMG/
KHUF/KIND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AND WILL REINTRODUCE
LIFR CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME. MEANWHILE FOR KLAF...HAVE BACKED OFF
TO VCSH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS SIGNIFICANT SNOW APPEARS TO BE
OVER. SOME HINTS THAT THE SECONDARY ROUND OF SNOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY GRAZE KLAF AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.
12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
WINTER STORM IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING TAF SITES. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS ARE A TAD BETTER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH
MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OPPOSED TO IFR.
HOWEVER...STILL ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE FURTHER AFTER
SUN 15Z AS BULK OF STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN MID-MORNING AND MID-AFTERNOON TODAY. FREEZING
RAIN/ICE PELLETS HAVE CONVERTED OVER TO ALL SNOW AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT KBMG...WHICH IS STILL REPORTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT KBMG TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS WELL AROUND MID-MORNING.
SO...LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN 15Z...DETERIORATING TO
IFR FOR THE LATE MORNING...AND WORSENING EVEN FURTHER TO IFR/LIFR
FROM SUN 18Z TO MON 00Z. AT THAT POINT...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHTER...AND TAFS SHOULD BE AROUND THE MVFR/IFR MARK. DO
NOT EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER MON 09Z WHEN
SNOW ENDS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO
14 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ036-037-
039>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1155 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY AS DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SAME AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON AND COLUMBUS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A WINTRY MIX
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE LATE WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S AND 50S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
WITH THE EARLIER EVENING UPDATE PUSHED BACK ONSET OF PRECIP BY A
COUPLE HOURS. THIS UPDATE WAS LOOKING SIMILAR...BUT PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED AND SOME MORE ENHANCED ECHOES ON
RADAR ARE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THUS LEFT MOST OF
EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE IN PLACE BUT ADDED THE PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME DRY AIR ALOFT TO OVERCOME
BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO MEASURABLE PRECIP CAN BEGIN. ONSET OF
MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST SHOULD START IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...THE CENTRAL COUNTIES WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF THAT...AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER /AROUND 7-9Z/. DID NOT DEVIATE ON
PRECIP TYPE WITH AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM KIND LOOKING VERY SIMILAR
TO RAP SOUNDINGS WHICH STILL SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLEET IN THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES AND FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
MANY MAJOR CHALLENGES REGARDING THIS LOOMING WINTER STORM INCLUDING
PRECIPITATION AND TIMING OF CHANGEOVERS...SNOW AMOUNTS INCLUDING
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AXIS...ICE AMOUNTS AND TIMING.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW FARTHER SOUTH WITH A COLD FRONT THAT THEY HAVE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE NEW EURO AND 12Z GFS
ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND ALSO WITH
TWO WAVES ALONG THE FRONT. THIS TRANSLATES TO A COLDER COLUMN
COMPARED TO THE 12Z NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE SREF. TRIED TO USE A
COMBINATION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH CANADIAN PARTIAL
THICKNESSES TO DETERMINE BEST PRECIPITATION TYPES AND TRANSITION
ZONES OVER THE LIFE OF THIS WINTER STORM. AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF AN
ATTICA TO TIPTON SHOULD START OFF AS ALL SNOW BEING FURTHER
ENTRENCHED IN THE COLD AIR. MEANWHILE...AREAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF
RUSHVILLE AND TERRE HAUTE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION START OFF AS
RAIN. IN BETWEEN...NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...IT SHOULD START
TRANSITION NORTHWARD FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW.
OVERNIGHT...THINGS SHOULD START TO PICK UP WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW NORTHWEST...ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND A
MIX IN BETWEEN. FINALLY...IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SNOW BY LATE
MORNING AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL IT ENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY
MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
MODELS AGREE ON GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K LEVEL TONIGHT WITH
3 TO 4 G/KG MIXING RATIOS. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE STARTING NORTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WITH
THE REST OF CENTRAL INDIANA FILLING IN BY MIDNIGHT.
MODELS AGREE THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
IN THE EVENT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH BY SUNDAY MORNING.
FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD HANG ON THE LONGEST IN THE SOUTH. CONSIDERING
THESE FACTORS AND HOW LONG EACH LOCAL WITH SEE SNOW...PLACED THE
HIGHEST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AXIS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST SECTIONS WOULD SEE
NEAR 6 INCHES UNDER THIS REASONING WITH 4 TO 6 SOUTH. SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF VINCENNES COULD SEE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF ICE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
WITH STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES...CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW THIS
WINTER STORM WILL PLAY OUT...AND HOW HIGH SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS WILL
BE...COULD STILL BE BETTER. BUT REGARDLESS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WILL STICK WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS AND A WINTER STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE FOR THE SAME TIME AS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER AND/OR
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ICE AMOUNTS UNDERNEATH THE SNOW.
DID NOT DEPART TOO FAR FROM 12Z MOS AND CONSALL BLEND WITH STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL BE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR.
THE CENTER OF BROAD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA BY MONDAY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH FRESH SNOW PACK...PREFER THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES OF THE 12Z GFS MOS AND ALLBLEND WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MONDAY NIGHT NORTH AND IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE ON WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MIDWEEK...WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND COMMENCING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY MORNING...TRACKING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY SATURDAY. WHILE THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
MAY COME AS FAR WEST AS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...EXPECTING LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE HERE IN CENTRAL INDIANA. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS WILL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE 40S BY FRIDAY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE
UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/06Z TAF/...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
CHALLENGING FORECAST EVOLUTION THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY DETERIORATING TO IFR OR WORSE DURING THE PERIOD AS A
WINTER STORM IMPACTS THE TERMINALS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES DROPPING SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 08-14KT ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS A
RESULT.
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG AND OVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT
IN WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT ALL SITES. WILL KEEP IND/HUF AND
ESPECIALLY LAF MOST SNOW. HOWEVER...SOME FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE ICE
GROWTH ZONE AND THIS MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS OR SO. MIX
OF TYPES IS MUCH MORE LIKELY AT BMG OVERNIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO ALL
SNOW IN THE MORNING.
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MOST INTENSE
BANDING...AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME THIS AT EACH SITE BASED ON THE
POSITION OF THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND WILL PUT IT AT
1/2SM SN FG OVC004 DURING THAT TIME...BUT CONDITIONS BRIEFLY BELOW
MINIMUMS WILL DEFINITELY BE A THREAT AT EACH SITE. SHOULD BEGIN TO
SEE IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW EVENING AT ALL SITES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ036-037-
039>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035-038.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1215 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
WIND CHILL VALUES GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
JUST A FEW SITES CURRENTLY AT MINIMUM CRITERIA OF -20. AS RESULT
HAVE LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE...FOR NOW. ANOTHER WIND
CHILL ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...AND WILL ADDRESSING THAT WITH THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
OTHERWISE...COULD BE CLOSE SHAVE FOR SOME SNOW IN FAR SOUTHERN
CWA AS NEXT ROUND OF FRONTOGENETICAL SNOW ENHANCED BY EJECTING
SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE SKIRTS MAINLY SOUTH OF CWA... ROUGHLY
NEAR/SOUTH OF CHILLICOTHE MO TO QUINCY IL LINE. DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER INCREASING IN DEPTH ON OCCASIONAL GUSTY NORTH WINDS
SUPPORTIVE OF KEEPING POPS IN JUST THE CHANCE CATEGORY VERY FAR
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SNOW HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND PUSHED WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW. THE 00Z ECMWF...GEM
AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST SNOW MAY RIPPLE BACK NORTH WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT ARRIVING OUT OF THE PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE GFS AND NAM KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH. THIS LATTER
SCENARIO LOOKS MORE LIKELY AS THE DEPTH OF THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY
CONFLUENT OVER THAT REGION.
HAVE THUS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL UPDATE
FORECAST WORDING FOR LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
REDEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY
AREA OVER EASTERN IA LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW...AND AT 6 AM IT WAS
OUTLINING WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -19 TO -25.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
LARGE AXIS OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO A
140 KT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SETTLE
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 3 AM...ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KEOSAUQUA THROUGH GALESBURG TO PRINCETON IL. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH WAS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS HIGH WERE IN THE
SUBZERO TEENS AND 20S...WHILE IN THE LOCAL AREA...COLD AIR ADVECTION
HAD JUST PUSHED TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO IN VINTON AND INDEPENDENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
MAIN FOCUS IS ON HEADLINES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF ACROSS THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING AND UNSEASONABLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE ENTIRE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE GREAT LAKES JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES THROUGH MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL FORCING
DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL BRUSH THIS AREA BY AFTERNOON.
WILL THUS KEEP LIGHT SNOW AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING
ACROSS OUR NE MO COUNTIES AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL IL COUNTIES UNTIL
NOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
LOOKS LIMITED TO FURTHER SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL
ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES IN THE
EXTREME FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING. HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA AND REPLACED MUCH
OF IT WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN UNTIL NOON. FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WILL DRIVE WIND
CHILLS BELOW -20 FOR PERIODS THIS MORNING NW OF A LINE FROM
FAIRFIELD THROUGH IOWA CITY TO GALENA. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING OVER THE
AREA CURRENTLY RECEIVING SNOW UNTIL 12Z...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT AN EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS FOR
EARLY MARCH SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A GENERAL NORTH
TO SOUTH CLEARING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE TODAY...THE WIDESPREAD
FRESH SNOW COVER AND COLD ADVECTION ON NORTH WINDS WILL LIMIT ANY
DAYTIME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 2
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 10 IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST...WHICH IS ON THE
WARMEST SIDE OF LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. TONIGHT...THE IN-BUILDING
ARCTIC HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL IA BY 12Z. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS IN A 5 TO
10 MPH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
PROVIDING A WIND CHILL THREAT...BUT AT THE SAME TIME PREVENTING A
TEMPERATURE CRASH THAT THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW COVER WOULD
OTHERWISE ALLOW IN THE EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE TOWARD
MORNING...HOWEVER...AND KEPT OUR FORECAST CONSISTENT WITH LOWS
ROUGHLY FROM AROUND -18 NW TO -10 IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS
WELL ABOVE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE THAT PUSHES -20 OR COLDER
INTO THE NW. OUR FORECAST LOWS WILL THREATEN MARCH 3 RECORDS...AND
ALSO PUT MARCH 2 RECORDS AT RISK DEPENDING ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES
DROP THIS EVENING. BOTH THESE AND THE ALL TIME RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH
CAN BE FOUND IN THE SEPARATE CLIMATE SECTION. WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED
FURTHER HEADLINES...ALONG THE LINES OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY A WARNING FOR TONIGHT. OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -25...CLOSING IN ON -30 TOWARD
MORNING WHEN THE ACTUAL WIND BEGINS TO DROP OFF.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE AT
OR BELOW -20 FOR FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL IN BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW RISE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME MID TO LATE WEEK
AS THE UPPER FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HAVE
CONTINUED SOME BROAD BRUSH LOW POPS FOR SNOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 20S FOR
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT AND TEENS FOR LOWS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A WARM UP AS SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A TROF MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS.
HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
30S AND 40S POSSIBLE FRIDAY. MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PRECIPITATION NORTH WITH RAIN SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING WITH IT
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. N/NW WINDS 10-15 KTS AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 2...
BURLINGTON..... -4 IN 1913
CEDAR RAPIDS... -13 IN 1912
DUBUQUE........ -12 IN 1890
MOLINE......... -9 IN 1913
RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 3...
BURLINGTON..... -3 IN 1913
CEDAR RAPIDS... -9 IN 1913
DUBUQUE........ -10 IN 2002
MOLINE......... -8 IN 1884
MARCH RECORD LOWS...
BURLINGTON..... -13 03/05/1960
CEDAR RAPIDS... -20 03/01/1962
DUBUQUE........ -20 03/01/1962
MOLINE......... -19 03/06/1960
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1115 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SNOW HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND PUSHED WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW. THE 00Z ECMWF...GEM
AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST SNOW MAY RIPPLE BACK NORTH WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT ARRIVING OUT OF THE PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE GFS AND NAM KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH. THIS LATTER
SCENARIO LOOKS MORE LIKELY AS THE DEPTH OF THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY
CONFLUENT OVER THAT REGION.
HAVE THUS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL UPDATE
FORECAST WORDING FOR LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
REDEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY
AREA OVER EASTERN IA LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW...AND AT 6 AM IT WAS
OUTLINING WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -19 TO -25.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
LARGE AXIS OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO A
140 KT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SETTLE
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 3 AM...ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KEOSAUQUA THROUGH GALESBURG TO PRINCETON IL. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH WAS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS HIGH WERE IN THE
SUBZERO TEENS AND 20S...WHILE IN THE LOCAL AREA...COLD AIR ADVECTION
HAD JUST PUSHED TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO IN VINTON AND INDEPENDENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
MAIN FOCUS IS ON HEADLINES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF ACROSS THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING AND UNSEASONABLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE ENTIRE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE GREAT LAKES JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES THROUGH MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL FORCING
DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL BRUSH THIS AREA BY AFTERNOON.
WILL THUS KEEP LIGHT SNOW AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING
ACROSS OUR NE MO COUNTIES AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL IL COUNTIES UNTIL
NOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
LOOKS LIMITED TO FURTHER SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL
ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES IN THE
EXTREME FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING. HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA AND REPLACED MUCH
OF IT WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN UNTIL NOON. FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WILL DRIVE WIND
CHILLS BELOW -20 FOR PERIODS THIS MORNING NW OF A LINE FROM
FAIRFIELD THROUGH IOWA CITY TO GALENA. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING OVER THE
AREA CURRENTLY RECEIVING SNOW UNTIL 12Z...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT AN EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS FOR
EARLY MARCH SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A GENERAL NORTH
TO SOUTH CLEARING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE TODAY...THE WIDESPREAD
FRESH SNOW COVER AND COLD ADVECTION ON NORTH WINDS WILL LIMIT ANY
DAYTIME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 2
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 10 IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST...WHICH IS ON THE
WARMEST SIDE OF LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. TONIGHT...THE IN-BUILDING
ARCTIC HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL IA BY 12Z. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS IN A 5 TO
10 MPH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
PROVIDING A WIND CHILL THREAT...BUT AT THE SAME TIME PREVENTING A
TEMPERATURE CRASH THAT THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW COVER WOULD
OTHERWISE ALLOW IN THE EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE TOWARD
MORNING...HOWEVER...AND KEPT OUR FORECAST CONSISTENT WITH LOWS
ROUGHLY FROM AROUND -18 NW TO -10 IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS
WELL ABOVE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE THAT PUSHES -20 OR COLDER
INTO THE NW. OUR FORECAST LOWS WILL THREATEN MARCH 3 RECORDS...AND
ALSO PUT MARCH 2 RECORDS AT RISK DEPENDING ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES
DROP THIS EVENING. BOTH THESE AND THE ALL TIME RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH
CAN BE FOUND IN THE SEPARATE CLIMATE SECTION. WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED
FURTHER HEADLINES...ALONG THE LINES OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY A WARNING FOR TONIGHT. OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -25...CLOSING IN ON -30 TOWARD
MORNING WHEN THE ACTUAL WIND BEGINS TO DROP OFF.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE AT
OR BELOW -20 FOR FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL IN BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW RISE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME MID TO LATE WEEK
AS THE UPPER FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HAVE
CONTINUED SOME BROAD BRUSH LOW POPS FOR SNOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 20S FOR
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT AND TEENS FOR LOWS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A WARM UP AS SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A TROF MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS.
HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
30S AND 40S POSSIBLE FRIDAY. MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PRECIPITATION NORTH WITH RAIN SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING WITH IT
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. N/NW WINDS 10-15 KTS AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 2...
BURLINGTON..... -4 IN 1913
CEDAR RAPIDS... -13 IN 1912
DUBUQUE........ -12 IN 1890
MOLINE......... -9 IN 1913
RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 3...
BURLINGTON..... -3 IN 1913
CEDAR RAPIDS... -9 IN 1913
DUBUQUE........ -10 IN 2002
MOLINE......... -8 IN 1884
MARCH RECORD LOWS...
BURLINGTON..... -13 03/05/1960
CEDAR RAPIDS... -20 03/01/1962
DUBUQUE........ -20 03/01/1962
MOLINE......... -19 03/06/1960
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR JO DAVIESS.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
616 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SNOW HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND PUSHED WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW. THE 00Z ECMWF...GEM
AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST SNOW MAY RIPPLE BACK NORTH WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT ARRIVING OUT OF THE PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE GFS AND NAM KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH. THIS LATTER
SCENARIO LOOKS MORE LIKELY AS THE DEPTH OF THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY
CONFLUENT OVER THAT REGION.
HAVE THUS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL UPDATE
FORECAST WORDING FOR LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
REDEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY
AREA OVER EASTERN IA LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW...AND AT 6 AM IT WAS
OUTLINING WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -19 TO -25.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
LARGE AXIS OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO A
140 KT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SETTLE
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 3 AM...ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KEOSAUQUA THROUGH GALESBURG TO PRINCETON IL. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH WAS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS HIGH WERE IN THE
SUBZERO TEENS AND 20S...WHILE IN THE LOCAL AREA...COLD AIR ADVECTION
HAD JUST PUSHED TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO IN VINTON AND INDEPENDENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
MAIN FOCUS IS ON HEADLINES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF ACROSS THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING AND UNSEASONABLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE ENTIRE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE GREAT LAKES JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES THROUGH MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL FORCING
DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL BRUSH THIS AREA BY AFTERNOON.
WILL THUS KEEP LIGHT SNOW AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING
ACROSS OUR NE MO COUNTIES AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL IL COUNTIES UNTIL
NOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
LOOKS LIMITED TO FURTHER SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL
ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES IN THE
EXTREME FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING. HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA AND REPLACED MUCH
OF IT WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN UNTIL NOON. FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WILL DRIVE WIND
CHILLS BELOW -20 FOR PERIODS THIS MORNING NW OF A LINE FROM
FAIRFIELD THROUGH IOWA CITY TO GALENA. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING OVER THE
AREA CURRENTLY RECEIVING SNOW UNTIL 12Z...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT AN EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS FOR
EARLY MARCH SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A GENERAL NORTH
TO SOUTH CLEARING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE TODAY...THE WIDESPREAD
FRESH SNOW COVER AND COLD ADVECTION ON NORTH WINDS WILL LIMIT ANY
DAYTIME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 2
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 10 IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST...WHICH IS ON THE
WARMEST SIDE OF LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. TONIGHT...THE IN-BUILDING
ARCTIC HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL IA BY 12Z. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS IN A 5 TO
10 MPH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
PROVIDING A WIND CHILL THREAT...BUT AT THE SAME TIME PREVENTING A
TEMPERATURE CRASH THAT THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW COVER WOULD
OTHERWISE ALLOW IN THE EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE TOWARD
MORNING...HOWEVER...AND KEPT OUR FORECAST CONSISTENT WITH LOWS
ROUGHLY FROM AROUND -18 NW TO -10 IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS
WELL ABOVE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE THAT PUSHES -20 OR COLDER
INTO THE NW. OUR FORECAST LOWS WILL THREATEN MARCH 3 RECORDS...AND
ALSO PUT MARCH 2 RECORDS AT RISK DEPENDING ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES
DROP THIS EVENING. BOTH THESE AND THE ALL TIME RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH
CAN BE FOUND IN THE SEPARATE CLIMATE SECTION. WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED
FURTHER HEADLINES...ALONG THE LINES OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY A WARNING FOR TONIGHT. OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -25...CLOSING IN ON -30 TOWARD
MORNING WHEN THE ACTUAL WIND BEGINS TO DROP OFF.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE AT
OR BELOW -20 FOR FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL IN BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW RISE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME MID TO LATE WEEK
AS THE UPPER FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HAVE
CONTINUED SOME BROAD BRUSH LOW POPS FOR SNOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 20S FOR
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT AND TEENS FOR LOWS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A WARM UP AS SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A TROF MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS.
HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
30S AND 40S POSSIBLE FRIDAY. MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PRECIPITATION NORTH WITH RAIN SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING WITH IT
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO IA BY TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THERE
IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLURRIES AT BRL...OTHERWISE...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20
KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KTS BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 2...
BURLINGTON..... -4 IN 1913
CEDAR RAPIDS... -13 IN 1912
DUBUQUE........ -12 IN 1890
MOLINE......... -9 IN 1913
RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 3...
BURLINGTON..... -3 IN 1913
CEDAR RAPIDS... -9 IN 1913
DUBUQUE........ -10 IN 2002
MOLINE......... -8 IN 1884
MARCH RECORD LOWS...
BURLINGTON..... -13 03/05/1960
CEDAR RAPIDS... -20 03/01/1962
DUBUQUE........ -20 03/01/1962
MOLINE......... -19 03/06/1960
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR JO DAVIESS.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
530 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2014
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
Tonight:
Some mid to high level clouds will continue tonight in association with
a jet streak passing off to the southeast. Southerly winds will become
SSW/SW after midnight. The downslope winds should lead to higher minimums
for much of the region, except over deeper snowpack. Calling for mid to
upper 20sF by Elkhart to upper single digits to lower teens across the
deeper snowpack (generally along and east of Highway 183).
Tomorrow:
The HRRR is suggesting fog formation tonight, but this is different
than what the WRF is suggesting. Think the model fields might be too
heavily influenced by the model snowpack. If fog does develop, it will
be patchy.
Lee troughing will continue tomorrow. Downslope, compressional warming
is expected ahead of a frontal boundary. This front will traverse the
region after my short-term period ends. A fairly impressive gradient
of maximum temperatures is expected across the forecast area of responsibility.
Low 60sF will be possible across the western zones, where the warmest
850 hPa temperatures are expected along with the strongest downslope
wind component. Have undercut temperature guidance farther east across
the heavier snowpack areas, where low 40sF are possible for highs. Any
precipitation will remain outside of my period.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
This extended period will be dominated by a two different upper
level troughs passing through, one on Tuesday night and Wednesday,
and the other one on Friday night and Saturday.
In the nearer term, Tuesday night should be cold with lows in the
mid 20s in the Hays and LaCrosse areas, ranging to the mid 30s down
down in our southwest corner near Elkhart. I think the front will
be in the I-70 corridor about midnight, with some overrunning
precipitation beginning by midnight, in the form of snow and/or
sleet. Forecast sounding from nearly every model shows a warm
tongue aloft, for the early part of the event. The front will
spill southward through Southwestern and South Central Kansas on
Wednesday, and most of the rest of our forecast area will see some
snow/sleet early Wednesday, changing over to rain by late morning.
The dynamics will be stronger to our north, so 20 to 30 percent
precipitation chances will suffice for us. Only light QPF amounts
are expected, generally less than 0.03 inch liquid, and perhaps up
to a half inch of snow in any particular location. Wednesday`s
high temperatures Will range from 39F in Hays to 52F in Johnson
City.
Wednesday night through Friday will see some warming, with the
coolest highs across any accumulation of snow. Wednesday night
minimum temperatures will still be similar to mins Wednesday
morning, in the mid 20s to lower 30s. There will be a quick warm
up Thursday with southwest surface winds. Maximum temperatures in
the southwest corner near Ulysses and Elkhart will rise into the
lower to middle 60s, while the east sections from Ellis to
Comanche Counties will only top out in the lower to middle 50s.
There will be some advance clouds moving in Friday, which will knock
down maximum temperatures Friday into the upper 40s north of I-70,
ranging to near 60F down south along the Oklahoma border. As an
upper wave moves into the plains Friday night, a cold front will
dive southeast from Wyoming. This will bring another round of
snow or rain to Southwest Kansas Friday Night and Saturday. I did
lower some of the 50% Pops from the AllBlend model to 30 and 40
percent, to better match our neighbor`s grids. Friday night will
see a cool down in low temperatures, dropping to the mid 20s to
lower 30s. Saturday should be significantly colder, with the
clouds and precipitation around. Highs should only reach the
middle 40s to near 50F on Saturday.
Sunday looks mostly sunny and considerably warmer, with max temps in
the upper 50s near Larned and the middle 60s in the Syracuse area.
Sunday will be sunny and even warmer with max temps in the middle
60s across the forecast area. Minimum temperatures both Saturday
and Sunday mornings will average in the 25F to 30F degree range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. However, increasing relative humidity, decreasing wind
speeds, and gradually clearing skies may lead to some ground fog
development overnight resulting in possible MVFR vsbys. Although
southwesterly downslope winds are expected to develop toward
daybreak Tuesday, winds speeds may become light enough that brief
IFR vsbys may be possible in the late overnight hours further west
near KGCK. As for winds, a developing lee side trough of low
pressure will slowly strengthen across eastern Colorado through
Tuesday. As a result, south to southwesterly winds of 5 to 15kt
will persist through Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 17 56 27 44 / 0 0 10 30
GCK 18 61 28 46 / 0 0 10 30
EHA 27 63 33 52 / 0 0 10 20
LBL 20 59 30 50 / 0 0 10 20
HYS 12 46 25 39 / 0 0 20 40
P28 9 40 25 42 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
418 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS WEEK. LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TO
BEGIN THE WEEK IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH A ZONAL TO SUBTLE LONGWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE
EAST...PLACING OUR REGION IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. BELOW THIS...WILL SEE WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST
TOMORROW. LATE TOMORROW A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
TODAY...MORNING BEGAN QUITE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH
AT A FEW SITES. CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY DISSIPATE. MODEL
OUTPUT FROM GFS AND NAM ESPECIALLY GENERALLY NOT USEFUL FOR NEAR
SURFACE PARAMETERS DUE TO SNOW DEPTH BEING INITIALIZED MUCH TOO
DEEP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. RAP DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM THIS...SO LEANED TOWARDS RAP/ECMWF FOR
TEMPS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHERE THERE IS SNOW AND SOME CLOUD COVER
ACROSS GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES TEMPS HAVE BEEN MUCH
COLDER...BUT ELSEWHERE A PLEASANT AND WARMER DAY AFTER A BITTER
COLD WEEKEND.
TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND 850MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO RISE WILL
MAKE FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH...LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN A FEW SPOTS.
HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN PARTS OF
ADJACENT COLORADO/KANSAS COUNTIES GENERALLY BASED OFF OF THE RAP
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TRENDS. THOUGH BELIEVE SOME OF THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN SREF/NAM ARE DUE TO SNOW FIELD...WITH RAP ALSO
HINTING AT A GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH AT
LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. MUCH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WINDS...AND IF
WINDS REMAIN UP AROUND 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT MIGHT NOT SEE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WHATSOEVER.
WEDNESDAY...SUNNY AND WARM FOR THE MOST PART. HIGHS APPROACHING 60
IN MOST SPOTS AS 850MB TEMPS REACH AROUND 10C...WITH ECMWF AND GEM
GOING EVEN WARMER. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BECOMING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING...QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING. QUICKER END OF GUIDANCE ACTUALLY BRINGS FRONT IN A
LITTLE EARLIER (POSSIBLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON)...THOUGH THIS WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THESE PERIODS. CAA IS
FAIRLY WEAK BEHIND THIS FRONT AND BEST COOLING MODELS ARE SHOWING
IS WITH PRECIP BAND (LIKELY DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES). CURRENT
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
(AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT) MOVING OVER OUR CWA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WED MORNING. MODEL QPF FIELDS GENERALLY MATCH ON TIMING ON AREA OF
PRECIP MOVING OVER OUR CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO I TRENDED POPS
UP DURING THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD...AND QUICKLY ENDED POPS DURING
THE WED MORNING PERIOD.
REGARDING PRECIP TYPE...VERY LITTLE E-SE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO IM NOT SEEING A LOT
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. A FEW SOUNDINGS TRY
TO SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION IN OUR SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER WITH VERY
BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE NW FLOW OVERTAKES REGION OR MAIN AREA OF
PRECIP MOVES IN IM NOT SEEING THIS BEING WORTH A MENTION. WHILE
INITIALLY THERE IS A WARM LAYER...SATURATION ABOVE THIS LAYER WILL
OCCUR WHEN MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVES IN AND TEMPERATURE (AND BY THAT
POINT WEAK CAA/EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES HAVE REMOVED THIS WARM LAYER
FROM THE EQUATION)...SO SLEET IS UNLIKELY. PROFILES GENERALLY SHOW
CLEAN RAIN-SNOW TRANSITION WITH MINIMAL CAA IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SO I WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED FZDZ/FZRA AND LEFT TYPE AS
RAIN/SNOW.
DUE TO RELIANCE ON EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES FOR RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY. CURRENT GUIDANCE AND FORECAST TIMING GENERALLY
SHOWS SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE (FAIRLY WET
AND SLUSHY).
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION
AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT ALLOWING FOR QUICK RETURN OF
MILD TEMPS/DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM UP CONSIDERABLY
THURSDAY WITH MEX/ECE SHOWING HIGHS AROUND 70F. H85 TEMPS
GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MID 60S-LOW 70S (DEPENDING ON WHICH END OF
GUIDANCE YOU CHOOSE) USING STANDARD BIAS. I TRENDED TEMPS UP
ACROSS THE CWA TO UPPER 60S THURSDAY...AND COULD STILL BE A LITTLE
LOW COMPARED TO WARMER END OF GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...NEXT QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS BACK TO OUR CWA. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN
EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON OVERALL TRENDS/CONSENSUS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WHILE THERE IS RUN-RUN MODEL SPREAD DURING THESE
PERIODS...GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGING (OF SOME FLAVOR)
AND DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 408 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO AROUND OR UNDER 10 KTS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY SHORTLY AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE
WAS A LITTLE LOW ON FOG FOR KMCK...SO HAVE DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE
IT IN THE TAF.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1220 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED SOUTH AS
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS THE WICHITA METRO AREA. ALTHOUGH
THE RUC SHOWS THIS AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS WANING A BIT AS IT SHIFTS
FURTHER SOUTH INTO MID-AFTERNOON...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF SHOULD TEND TO KEEP A BROAD AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL GOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY
AFFECT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
RATES OF ONE-HALF INCH TO LOCALLY ONE INCH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN
THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS GREATER WICHITA AND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF HARPER TO
WICHITA TO CASSODAY LINE.
KED
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
TODAY-EARLY EVENING:
EXPECT SOME MARGINALLY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST FOR A
BIT LONGER IN SOUTHEAST KS WHILE SECOND BAND THROUGH ICT WILL
LIKELY RE-INTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING. ONE POSITIVE IS THAT THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE OVER AS COLD AIR HAS RESULTED
IN EITHER SLEET/SNOW FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A BIT PUZZLED BY
CONFLICTING SIGNALS WITH APPROACHING WAVE...WITH LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE 0000 UTC UPPER AIR DATA...BUT IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR
LOOP AND FAIR AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS ON
TIMING/LOCATION OF BEST LIFT DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER CONSISTENT
SIGNAL IS THAT SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS WILL LIKELY HAVE
MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SNOW FOR ANOTHER 12 PLUS HOURS...EITHER FROM
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH WAVE AND/OR FRONTOGENESIS. EVEN IF THE
INTENSITY IS LESS...PERSISTENCE SHOULD STILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
2-3 MORE INCHES BARRING A PREDOMINATELY SLEET EVENT. HAVE
DOWNGRADED SALINE/ELLSWORTH TO AN ADVISORY WHERE ONLY LIGHT SNOW
IS ANTICIPATED. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
COWLEY COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE PAST 0000 UTC.
REST OF TONIGHT-MON:
RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT WITH WINDS CONTINUING
TO DIMINISH. WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO TANK... WITH SOME RECORD LOWS PROBABLY FALLING. GIVEN RIDGE
AXIS MOVING ACROSS AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE
DIFFICULT ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF CIRRUS IS THICKER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. GFS/ECMWF AT ODDS WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW.
MON NIGHT-TUE:
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...BUT RETURN FLOW MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP
ACROSS FAR WEST. STILL KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE EAST...WITH A
NOD TO THE GEM WHICH HAS VERIFIED WELL IN THIS REGIME. MODEST
WARMUP ON TUE AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
STILL RUNNING A BIT BELOW NORMAL. -HOWERTON
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK/MODEST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OVER MID-AMERICA MID-WEEK...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING CHANCE OF A LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WED-WED NIGHT.
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AND TEMPERATURES MAY
BE ONLY MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SO NOT ANTICIPATING A
BIG WEATHER-MAKER...WITH ONLY VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST BY LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...WITH 40S-
50S A GOOD BET AND POSSIBLY NEAR 60F OVER SOUTHERN KS FRI. ECMWF
AND GEM MODELS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS A MODEST MID-LEVEL TROUGH INTO
THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...WHICH COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRI NIGHT-SAT...ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT NEARLY
AS COLD AS CURRENT AIRMASS. THIS SCENARIO DEFINITELY IS NOT SET IN
STONE YET THOUGH...AS GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY NOT AS AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED COOL DOWN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS...SO STAY TUNED FOR
LATER FORECASTS.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
SNOW WITH IFR AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY
SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF LIFR SN AND +SN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SLEET IS STILL
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE WINTER STORM
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
KED
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
THE FOLLOWING ARE CLIMATE RECORDS THAT MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN TODAY
AND MONDAY:
COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 2ND:
RSL 16 IN 2002
SLN 18 IN 2002
ICT 15 IN 1943
CNU 22 IN 1960
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 3RD:
RSL -16 IN 1960
SLN -9 IN 1916
ICT -2 IN 1960
CNU 0 IN 2002
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT -5 15 6 38 / 90 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON -7 14 7 38 / 80 0 0 0
NEWTON -5 15 6 36 / 80 0 0 0
ELDORADO -4 14 4 36 / 90 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD -1 17 5 37 / 100 0 0 0
RUSSELL -9 21 12 41 / 30 0 0 0
GREAT BEND -12 20 12 42 / 50 0 0 0
SALINA -9 15 8 37 / 40 0 0 0
MCPHERSON -7 14 7 37 / 60 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 1 19 4 37 / 100 0 0 0
CHANUTE -2 17 4 35 / 100 0 0 0
IOLA -2 17 4 35 / 90 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 0 19 4 36 / 100 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ070>072-
093>096-098>100.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ050>053-
067>069-082-083-091-092.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST MONDAY
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091-092.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>049.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR
KSZ070>072-093>096.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1142 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
...Update to short term and aviation forecast...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1128 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
The main upper trough is now ejecting into the Plains and the
combination of stronger ascent and increased moisture influx into
the dry layer aloft has allowed a band of moderate to heavy snow
to move into the region. Dry advection in the low levels from the
northeast is still persistent and strong on the northern edge of
the snow band, with a sharp cut off from very light snow to heavy
snow along an Abilene to Topeka line. Cancelled all winter weather
advisories north of this line while maintaining products south of
it. Current indications are that additional snow from 10 AM
through the end of the storm will probably range from 1 to 4
inches with the lowest amounts north, near the aforementioned cut
off line. The warm nose aloft also remains evident in dual pol
radar imagery south of an Emporia to Ottawa line so may see a bit
of sleet still mixing in over these areas. The center of the
filling upper trough will move into southwest Missouri after 6
PM...and may maintain enough forcing to continue some light snow
over east central KS through around 9 PM or so...but with the
continued dry advection expect only light additional accumulation
beyond 4 PM. Wind chill advisory has also been expanded across the
entire area and extended through Monday morning as the wind chill
will range from -10 to -25 across the area through this entire
period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
Bands of frontogenesis continue to bring precipitation to mainly
eastern and southern sections of the CWA. Radar trends suggesting
precip types trending to more snow versus sleet. Latest water vapor
has upper trough still not yet through the Four Corners with 09Z obs
putting axis of surface ridge through central Kansas.
Models continue to differ on just where precip will be today. The
GFS seems to be the strong outlier again, with much stronger and
deeper frontogenesis redeveloping this morning. This seems to be
tied to a very strong and channeled vorticity max it brings through
aloft, backing mid level winds and tightening the thermal gradient.
With its recent runs not panning out too well, and it being the
outlier, have put little weight on it. Still will have some 1.5 PV
pressure advection this morning and increasing 300-700mb Q-vector
convergence across east central Kansas as the wave enters the
Panhandles this afternoon. Non-GFS models are similar with the
middle and lower levels drying throughout the day, helping limit
precip chances north of I-70 to mainly the early day, with southern
areas clearing overnight as the wave passes. Have trended amounts
down, but still somewhat conservatively as RAP and HRRR still
suggest some banded structures continuing northeast into northeast
and east central Kansas. Any significant accumulations for north
central Kansas should be finished and dropped the Advisory there,
while tapering amounts elsewhere for a downgrade from Riley to
Jackson counties and ending the Warning earlier for locations north
of the Turnpike. Mid level winds do back a bit as the wave nears for
a potentially warmer warm nose and perhaps more sleet to return just
north of the Turnpike this morning. Wind chills are the other major
consideration and Advisory levels should persist through around
midday for the entire area, and will likely return this evening as
temps drop to around 0 and winds slowly subside. Just how far the
winds go down is a big challenge with clearing taking place as the
center of the high comes in. With the ongoing situation and
uncertainty tonight, will hold off on a headline for tonight at this
point.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
After a very cold start to the day on Monday with wind chills in the
15 to 23 below zero range through late morning. The winds will be
around 5 mph with temperatures of 4 to 8 below zero rising above
zero by noon. Surface high pressure will be located over northeast
Kansas on Monday morning then moving off to the east through the
day. This will allow for winds to come back around to the southeast
from west to east through the day. Highs on Monday with limited
mixing and some snow cover will only warm into the teens.
Tuesday a wave moves through the northwest flow across the Northern
Plains and into the Great Lakes Region. This will push another front
south into the CWA by the end of the day. Highs on Tuesday will warm
back to above freezing ranging from the lower to middle 30s.
Models bring the next trough across the Central Plains in the
northwest flow on Wednesday. There appears to be sufficient moisture
and lift with this system as it moves through for light
precipitation. Forecast soundings from the GFS and ECMWF suggest all
snow generally along and south of Interstate 70 with some light snow
to the north. Highs Wednesday will again be in the 30s.
Warm advection and weak ridging occur Thursday into Friday which
will warm things up for the end of the week. Highs in the 40s
expected on Thursday with 50s on Friday. Friday night and Saturday
will see the next system move through the area. This will bring a
chance of rain and snow to the CWA. There is still model uncertainty
with the timing of the trough late in the week so confidence is low
with regards to the timing as the GFS is much faster and further
north than the ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
Snow, moderate and perhaps even heavy at times will move across
the region. There is a very sharp cut off on the north edge of
this snow, with VFR conditions expected at MHK, with periods of
VFR, MVFR, and IFR conditions at TOP/FOE. FOE has the best chance
for more persistent IFR through around 21Z. Have fair confidence
in snow end time, and expect VFR conditions to be dominant after
snow comes to an end with winds also tapering off after 00Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Monday FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ026-
035>040.
WINTER STORM WARNING until Midnight CST tonight FOR KSZ054>056-
058-059.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
617 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
Bands of frontogenesis continue to bring precipitation to mainly
eastern and southern sections of the CWA. Radar trends suggesting
precip types trending to more snow versus sleet. Latest water vapor
has upper trough still not yet through the Four Corners with 09Z obs
putting axis of surface ridge through central Kansas.
Models continue to differ on just where precip will be today. The
GFS seems to be the strong outlier again, with much stronger and
deeper frontogenesis redeveloping this morning. This seems to be
tied to a very strong and channeled vorticity max it brings through
aloft, backing mid level winds and tightening the thermal gradient.
With its recent runs not panning out too well, and it being the
outlier, have put little weight on it. Still will have some 1.5 PV
pressure advection this morning and increasing 300-700mb Q-vector
convergence across east central Kansas as the wave enters the
Panhandles this afternoon. Non-GFS models are similar with the
middle and lower levels drying throughout the day, helping limit
precip chances north of I-70 to mainly the early day, with southern
areas clearing overnight as the wave passes. Have trended amounts
down, but still somewhat conservatively as RAP and HRRR still
suggest some banded structures continuing northeast into northeast
and east central Kansas. Any significant accumulations for north
central Kansas should be finished and dropped the Advisory there,
while tapering amounts elsewhere for a downgrade from Riley to
Jackson counties and ending the Warning earlier for locations north
of the Turnpike. Mid level winds do back a bit as the wave nears for
a potentially warmer warm nose and perhaps more sleet to return just
north of the Turnpike this morning. Wind chills are the other major
consideration and Advisory levels should persist through around
midday for the entire area, and will likely return this evening as
temps drop to around 0 and winds slowly subside. Just how far the
winds go down is a big challenge with clearing taking place as the
center of the high comes in. With the ongoing situation and
uncertainty tonight, will hold off on a headline for tonight at this
point.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
After a very cold start to the day on Monday with wind chills in the
15 to 23 below zero range through late morning. The winds will be
around 5 mph with temperatures of 4 to 8 below zero rising above
zero by noon. Surface high pressure will be located over northeast
Kansas on Monday morning then moving off to the east through the
day. This will allow for winds to come back around to the southeast
from west to east through the day. Highs on Monday with limited
mixing and some snow cover will only warm into the teens.
Tuesday a wave moves through the northwest flow across the Northern
Plains and into the Great Lakes Region. This will push another front
south into the CWA by the end of the day. Highs on Tuesday will warm
back to above freezing ranging from the lower to middle 30s.
Models bring the next trough across the Central Plains in the
northwest flow on Wednesday. There appears to be sufficient moisture
and lift with this system as it moves through for light
precipitation. Forecast soundings from the GFS and ECMWF suggest all
snow generally along and south of Interstate 70 with some light snow
to the north. Highs Wednesday will again be in the 30s.
Warm advection and weak ridging occur Thursday into Friday which
will warm things up for the end of the week. Highs in the 40s
expected on Thursday with 50s on Friday. Friday night and Saturday
will see the next system move through the area. This will bring a
chance of rain and snow to the CWA. There is still model uncertainty
with the timing of the trough late in the week so confidence is low
with regards to the timing as the GFS is much faster and further
north than the ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 617AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
Bands of light snow expected across the area this in the early
portions of the forecast and will go with TEMPO to start with
visibilities being the main concern. VFR conditions should
dominate the latter half of the forecast.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 617 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
Current record temperatures and year set for today and Monday...
Lowest Maximum Lowest Minimum Lowest Maximum
March 2 March 3 March 3
-----------------------------------------------------------
Topeka 14 F (1943) -1 F (1960) 16 F (1978)
Concordia 15 F (2002) -6 F (1960) 12 F (1960)
Current record temperatures and date set for any day in March...
Lowest Maximum Lowest Minimum
-----------------------------------------------------------
Topeka 9 F (March 4, 1960) -7 F (March 4, 1978)
Concordia 8 F (March 11, 1948) -11 F (March 11, 1948)
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR
KSZ022>024.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ026-
035>040.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ008-009-020-021-
034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ010>012.
WINTER STORM WARNING until Midnight CST tonight FOR KSZ054>056-
058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...65
CLIMATE...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
426 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
Bands of frontogenesis continue to bring precipitation to mainly
eastern and southern sections of the CWA. Radar trends suggesting
precip types trending to more snow versus sleet. Latest water vapor
has upper trough still not yet through the Four Corners with 09Z obs
putting axis of surface ridge through central Kansas.
Models continue to differ on just where precip will be today. The
GFS seems to be the strong outlier again, with much stronger and
deeper frontogenesis redeveloping this morning. This seems to be
tied to a very strong and channeled vorticity max it brings through
aloft, backing mid level winds and tightening the thermal gradient.
With its recent runs not panning out too well, and it being the
outlier, have put little weight on it. Still will have some 1.5 PV
pressure advection this morning and increasing 300-700mb Q-vector
convergence across east central Kansas as the wave enters the
Panhandles this afternoon. Non-GFS models are similar with the
middle and lower levels drying throughout the day, helping limit
precip chances north of I-70 to mainly the early day, with southern
areas clearing overnight as the wave passes. Have trended amounts
down, but still somewhat conservatively as RAP and HRRR still
suggest some banded structures continuing northeast into northeast
and east central Kansas. Any significant accumulations for north
central Kansas should be finished and dropped the Advisory there,
while tapering amounts elsewhere for a downgrade from Riley to
Jackson counties and ending the Warning earlier for locations north
of the Turnpike. Mid level winds do back a bit as the wave nears for
a potentially warmer warm nose and perhaps more sleet to return just
north of the Turnpike this morning. Wind chills are the other major
consideration and Advisory levels should persist through around
midday for the entire area, and will likely return this evening as
temps drop to around 0 and winds slowly subside. Just how far the
winds go down is a big challenge with clearing taking place as the
center of the high comes in. With the ongoing situation and
uncertainty tonight, will hold off on a headline for tonight at this
point.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
After a very cold start to the day on Monday with wind chills in the
15 to 23 below zero range through late morning. The winds will be
around 5 mph with temperatures of 4 to 8 below zero rising above
zero by noon. Surface high pressure will be located over northeast
Kansas on Monday morning then moving off to the east through the
day. This will allow for winds to come back around to the southeast
from west to east through the day. Highs on Monday with limited
mixing and some snow cover will only warm into the teens.
Tuesday a wave moves through the northwest flow across the Northern
Plains and into the Great Lakes Region. This will push another front
south into the CWA by the end of the day. Highs on Tuesday will warm
back to above freezing ranging from the lower to middle 30s.
Models bring the next trough across the Central Plains in the
northwest flow on Wednesday. There appears to be sufficient moisture
and lift with this system as it moves through for light
precipitation. Forecast soundings from the GFS and ECMWF suggest all
snow generally along and south of Interstate 70 with some light snow
to the north. Highs Wednesday will again be in the 30s.
Warm advection and weak ridging occur Thursday into Friday which
will warm things up for the end of the week. Highs in the 40s
expected on Thursday with 50s on Friday. Friday night and Saturday
will see the next system move through the area. This will bring a
chance of rain and snow to the CWA. There is still model uncertainty
with the timing of the trough late in the week so confidence is low
with regards to the timing as the GFS is much faster and further
north than the ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
Mvfr cigs and vsbys in snow will persist through 18z with most
of the ifr cigs and lifr vsbys in snow to occur before 10z
and mainly in the ktop/kfoe sites. Otherwise expect any lingering
light snow to end across the terminals by 00z/03 with vfr stratocu
deck near 3500 feet. Gusty north 15 to 22 kts will slowly decrease
aft 21z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR
KSZ022>024.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ026-
035>040.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ008-009-020-021-
034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ010>012.
WINTER STORM WARNING until Midnight CST tonight FOR KSZ054>056-
058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
930 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
Minor adjustment to sky cover to account for high level cirrus
deck moving through the WFO PAH forecast area. Little, in the way
of any other significant change to temperatures, winds, and
dewpoints. The 12z NAM-WRF (NMM version) and 13km RUC (RAP) appear
to have the sensible weather trends in check for the weather overnight.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
Updated for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
Arctic high pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley region
tonight. Clear skies...slackening winds and the extensive snow/ice
field in place will lead to near record low temperatures tonight
in the single digits to near 10 above. The current records were
established way back in the 1940s. The good news is that we should
see the beginning of a prolonged warming trend Tuesday that
should last right through the rest of the week. In addition,
little if any precipitation is expected through mid week as broad
wnw flow aloft becomes more zonal by Wed.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
High pressure will slide across our region late in the work week.
This will give us dry conditions Thursday into Friday. Winds will
continue from the north to northeast on Thursday, so temperatures
will only reach a few degrees higher than Wednesday in the lower
to middle 40s. Thursday night into Friday, winds will shift back
to the south as the ridge moves to our east. Temperatures will
respond nicely with highs reaching the lower to middle 50s.
ECMWF, GFS and GEM bring a cold front into the middle Mississippi
and lower Ohio valleys Friday night. GFS and GEM are a little
faster than the ECMWF bringing some light QPF into north and
northwest portions of the PAH forecast area by late Friday night.
ECMWF pretty much keeps us dry with the passage of the front, while
GFS and GEM generate some decent QPF through the day Saturday,
tapering off quickly from northwest to southeast Saturday evening.
Basically went with slight chance to chance pops across southern
Illinois and southeast Missouri Friday night, and across the entire
FA Saturday into Saturday night. Temperatures will be plenty warm
enough to keep precipitation as all rain through the day Saturday,
but we may see rain mix with snow both Friday night and Saturday
night. Precipitation amounts will generally be very light,
especially when the possibility of snow is mixed in.
High pressure will again slide across the area Sunday into Monday.
After a brief cool down by a few degrees Saturday into Sunday, south
winds Monday will finally help temperatures reach seasonal readings
for the first time in quite a while. ECMWF tries to bring an area
of low pressure up toward our region late Monday, but GFS keeps the
low well south of our region. Kept Monday dry at this point.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 724 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
Surface High will migrate east across Ohio valley, with light
winds and little more than high clouds expected.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
202 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
This mesoscale discussion is only limited to the remainder of this
afternoon (basically through 00z Monday - 6pm CST). Adjusted
weather type, six hourly and storm total QPF, Snow Amount, and Ice
Accumulation grids to reflect mesoscale changes through 6 pm CST.
Most of the convective elements (i.e., thunderstorms and nearby
showers) have been running within the 13km RAP 0-3km Most Unstable
Cape with values in excess of 140-170 Joules/Kilogram oriented
along the ridge of maximum values. Within these elements, the
updrafts are intermixing ice crystal and supercooled water
droplets generating sleet, common with the thunderstorms.
Outside these updrafts, conversion back to freezing rain will be
likely with the loss of decent ice nuclei in the favored dendritic
zone.
The compensating factor toward the support of more sleet with time is
the deepening cold layer above 2.5 kft as of 18-19z Sunday. This layer
of cold air should increase closer to 3.4 kft (using KPAH as
reference point) by 00z Monday.
Modified the Noon to 6 PM CST rainfall, sleet (included in the
snow amount grids), and ice accumulation this afternoon. Some
modification of at least 0.03-0.05" QPF upward adjustment was made
over part of the area where anticipated thunderstorm development
is forecast for the rest of this afternoon. This may be underdone,
but am also trying to take into account some precipitation loading
of above freezing water in heavy downpours, as well as diabatic
effects.
The target area for enhanced ice development during the mid-
afternoon will be from Qulin and New Madrid Missouri, Cairo IL
and Fulton KY, Paducah and Mayfield, KY, Marion and Dawson Springs
KY, and Owensboro and Sacramento KY. Further north will be more
focus toward sleet (deeper sub-freezing layer), with locations further
southeast seeing an increasing concern for freezing rain into the
late afternoon.
&&
.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 18Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
Running short on time so will try and keep this as brief as
possible. The potential still exists for a significant winter storm
from early this morning into midday Monday. The threat for ice
accumulation seems somewhat diminished, but the snow threat has
increased.
A cold front over our far southeast counties at the time of this
writing will be just south and east of our CWA around midday, then
continue to drift southeast this afternoon. Due to warm air
advection and isentropic upglide just above the surface, freezing
precipitation is just beginning to break out over our northwestern
counties. The transition from rain to freezing rain is expected to
migrate southeast through the day today. By late afternoon the
freezing line is expected to make it completely through our CWA.
This evening as the deeper cold (sub-freezing) air filters into the
area from the northwest, freezing rain will begin changing over to
sleet and snow. Current storm total ice accumulations are expected
to range from around a quarter inch over over our northwest counties
to three quarters of an inch over our southeast counties. Storm
total snow accumulations are expected to range from four to six
inches over the northern two thirds of our CWA, and two to four
inches or less over the remainder of the area.
The best chances for precipitation, ice accumulation, etc should be
from this afternoon through Monday morning. As a weather system
lifts northeast out of the southern plains tonight, it will form a
wave on the aforementioned frontal boundary thereby producing an
overrunning scenario consisting of impressive QPF amounts over our
area during the evening and overnight hours which will make for
significant amounts of ice, sleet, and snow. The combination of
wintry weather will likely cause extremely difficult travel
conditions as well as the potential for power outages today and
tonight.
As the system pulls away on Monday, wrap around precipitation in the
form of snow will linger over the southeast half of the CWA through
midday with minor additional accumulations, then move off to the
east of our area. Due to the additional snowfall Monday, extended
the warning for the appropriate area to midday. This a very dynamic
system that bears watching very closely. Forecast confidence remains
rather high, but no doubt as we progress through the event, some
adjustments will be needed.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
The long term period will be mainly dry with temperatures slowly
moderating to near seasonal norms. The main forecast issue in the
long term will be temperatures...since precip potential will be nil
or very low.
Night time lows Tuesday...Wednesday...and Thursday nights will be
cold as winds become light over snow and ice cover each night. Low
temps should be in the teens and 20s. There will be a few factors
that will limit the temp plunge. Relatively warm temps aloft /just
above freezing at 850 mb/ should have some effect. Another factor
will be relatively high dew points compared to recent Arctic air
masses. In addition...some mid and high clouds are likely as a
series of shortwaves progress through the west/northwest flow.
The moderation in daytime highs will also be limited by snow and ice
cover. The models appear to have a pretty good handle on this. The
modelled snow cover is indicated by the surface thermal trough that
persists over the Lower Ohio Valley through the week. Even with 850
mb temps above freezing and seasonably higher sun angles...surface
temps will likely not get out of the 30s on Wednesday. By
Friday...the combination of southwest flow and March sun will push
temps well above freezing. Will maintain forecast highs around 50.
A weak cold front will move southeast across our region next
weekend. This front will be accompanied by very little moisture...so
pops will be kept in the slight chance category. With 850 mb temps
near zero...precip type could be either rain or snow.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
Another round of freezing rain and sleet will spread across the
forecast terminals this afternoon, resulting in significant icing.
The precipitation will change to mainly sleet by late afternoon
and early evening, then to snow by late evening and overnight. On
top of the ice, several inches of snow accumulation is expected.
Low MVFR conditions will frequently be reduced to IFR in heavier
precipitation. The precipitation will come to an end late tonight
and early Monday morning, but MVFR ceilings will remain. Sustained
northerly winds of 10 to 20 knots will gust as high as 25 to 30
knots.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Monday FOR ILZ077-078-082-
083-085>094.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ075-076-080-
081-084.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Monday FOR MOZ108>112-114.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Monday FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Monday FOR KYZ003>005-007-
010-014-015-018>020.
ICE STORM WARNING until 9 AM CST Monday FOR KYZ001-002-006-008-
009-011>013-016-017-021-022.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Smith
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...RJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1158 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
The AVIATION section has been update for the 06Z TAF issuance.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
Minor tweaks to temperatures this evening. The 3km HRRR numerical
model guidance runs have been fairly close on the freezing line
and temperature gradient across the WFO PAH forecast area...so
used this guidance to keep forecast temperatures within
verification tolerance.
Decided not to eliminate measurable PoPs/Weather for this evening
and overnight. Local and regional radar has been showing transient
echoes associated with light rain or drizzle. The transition to
freezing and frozen precipitation may be an hour to two faster
than what is actually occurring, but trend is close enough not to
alter too much.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
Confidence is becoming fairly high that a major winter storm will
impact most of the forecast area Sunday and Sunday night. All
watches have now been upgraded to some type of warning headline.
Ice Storm Warnings will be in place in a swath south of a line from
near Fulton KY to Greenville KY, where freezing rain will be the
most predominant for the longest time frame later Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. Elevated instability also point so a decent chc
of getting some thunder, esp in wrn KY and se MO/far srn IL
Sunday evening. Confidence is increasing that a major icing event
will unfold over the ice storm warning region, Would not be
surprised to see ice accumulations at least in the 1/2 to 3/4 inch
range esp Sunday night as a sfc low lifts ene through the Gulf
Coast states. Current models agree on a good inch or two of liquid
falling into sub freezing air.
Farther north in the Winter Storm Warning area...esp along and
just north of the Ohio River, significant freezing rain and sleet
Sunday could be followed by a few to several inches of snow Sunday
night, before the snow winds down early Monday. Cold air should be
deeper quicker north of the Shawnee Hills, resulting in a quicker
change to all sleet and snow Sunday. However, moisture should be
more limited up in that region, which hopefully will keep totals
from exceeding 4 to 6 inches or so.
Very cold arctic air will plunge in for the Monday/Tuesday time
frame, ensuring whatever ice/snow falls with the storm will surely
be with us for awhile. Single digits appear likely at night, with
highs well below freezing.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
rather uneventful weather pattern will take hold through the
remainder of the week. Stratified upper level flow will tend to keep
any weather systems either north or south of the immediate region
through Friday. The core of arctic high pressure will shift across
southeast Canada and the Great Lakes region into the Northeast by
Thursday. The forecast region will be on the southern periphery of
this high. As a result, expect unseasonably cold weather to start
the week. As the week progresses, the combination of slowly warming
temperatures and an increasing March sun angle should help to erode
the snow and ice cover that will be in place at the beginning of the
week. While temperatures will hold below freezing through Tuesday,
we expect highs to climb into the 30s on Wednesday, 40s Thursday,
and perhaps even 50s by Friday.
By late week, both the GFS and ECMWF bring the another piece of
energy east across the Plains with an approaching cold front. Both
models are not quite in agreement with respect to timing, but the
general idea yields our next chance of precipitation by the weekend.
As a result, we have introduced a slight chance of rain showers
Friday night and Saturday. At this point, temperatures appear warm
enough to support mainly liquid precipitation late next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
The latest guidance in general seems to be emphasizing sleet more,
as the warm layer hangs on through much of the period and the cold
layer gets deep and cold enough to re-freeze the rain. All sites
could see some light showers for the first half of the overnight
period, but true MVFR freezing rain will spread east over the area
after 09Z. Ceilings will drop to MVFR overnight, and IFR levels
may not be too far behind, especially at KCGI. Held them off until
afternoon, but that could be too slow.
It looks like the main area of heaviest precipitation will spread
northeast over the area 21Z through the remainder of the period.
IFR ceilings and visibilities will be a better possibility then.
Should the change over to sleet in the late afternoon north and in
the early evening south. Did mention some IFR snow after 03Z at
KEVV.
Winds will be from the north through the period, and will climb
to 15 to 20kts by late afternoon. The winds will remain at those
levels through the evening.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
ILZ077-078-082-083-085>094.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ075-076-080-
081-084.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
MOZ108>112-114.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
KYZ003>005-007-010-014-015-018>020.
ICE STORM WARNING from 3 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday FOR KYZ001-
002-006-008-009-011>013-016-017-021-022.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1243 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST
ALONG THIS FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO FLOW INTO THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
1245AM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEAD OR SLOWLY RISING FOR THE LAST
FEW HOURS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
PUMPS IN MORE WARM/MOIST AIR AND CLOUD COVER PREVENTS MUCH
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAY ACTUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE
COAST BY MORNING. OTHERWISE... SOME LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN VERMONT. SOME OF THIS
LIKELY EXTENDS INTO FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE.
THIS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS OVERNIGHT...
WITH UPSLOPE SNOW STARTING AS THE SURFACE FRONT ARRIVES.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT
TONIGHT IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WHERE ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. MESOSCALE MODELS CONSISTENT
WITH THIS IDEA...HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR RUN APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE WITH PRECIPITATION FOR THE COASTAL REGIONS OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME OF OUR COLDEST
SPOTS LAST NIGHT REACHED 20 BELOW ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL SAG WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER IS PASSES
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING. 12Z MODEL SUITE NOW EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES IN PORTLAND TOMORROW. IF WE
DO BREAK THE FREEZING POINT...IT WILL BE AFTER QUITE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING WEATHER. THEREAFTER...WE ARE BACK INTO
THE DEEP FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW ZERO...EVEN ALONG
THE COAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH NO SNOW PREDICTED FOR OUR AREA MONDAY.
A SECOND FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE
WITH THIS FRONT SO EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER COLD HIGH BUILDS IN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN FOR FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS IN SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HENCE SCAS
REMAIN IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS AT OR BELOW SCA THROUGH THE FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
648 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROF EXTENDING W INTO
WRN CANADA...ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF CANADA INTO THE
NRN CONUS...BUT THE COLD IS MODERATING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLOSER TO -15C TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...REBOUNDING FROM BITTER COLD LOW TEMPS LAST NIGHT.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
OVER THE 280-285K LAYER AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL MN AS NOTED ON
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. THIS SNOW IS FCST TO SPREAD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE PROGGED BY 12Z MODELS TO DIVE SE OVER SRN/CNTRL WI...THE
BEST AND LONGEST SUSTAINED DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WI BORDER COUNTIES AND
ALONG THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE S (LIKELY) WITH LOWER CHC POPS TO THE NW
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG AVBL PER 280K
SFC (ROUGHLY 730MB) AND 6HRS OR SO OF -SN...EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH NORTH TO PERHAPS 1-2INCHES FAR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS
EXPECTED...TEMPS AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BLO 0F
TONIGHT.
EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC BEST FORCING SLIDE SE OF THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OVER THE ERN
COUNTIES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM SCNTRL CANADA WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION (8H TEMPS DOWN TO -18C) ON
TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY FROM
LOWER TO MID TEENS NORTH TO UPPER TEENS SOUTH UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODIS IMAGERY
OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS INDICATES LAKE SUPERIOR IS NEARLY ICED
OVER...SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL
DON/T EXPECT MUCH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
TUESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK SHORTWAVES...WITH THE
ONE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST AND THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE DAKOTAS. THIS
SECOND WAVE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
TRAJECTORY AS THE TUESDAY MORNING WAVE...BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PULL DRIER AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MICHIGAN AND LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATING IT BEING
SHALLOW...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST AND MAINLY INDICATE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH
INFLUENCE WITH THIS WAVE...ESPECIALLY WITH A MOSTLY FROZEN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN EASTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO VARY ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE
EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING...SHOULD SEE A
QUICK FALL IN TEMPS BEFORE RETURN FLOW TRIES TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
SINCE PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE
EVENING...DID LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BASED OFF THE CONSISTENCY
IN THE MODELS ON HAVING LOWS IN THE -5 TO -10 DEGREE RANGE.
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASUREABLE SNOW IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THERE IS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE THAT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AND ACROSS
THE U.P. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SNOW. WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS...WILL
TREND POPS UP IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND THINK SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY (FROM A HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS) AND
WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH LAKE SUPERIOR PRETTY MUCH
FROZEN OVER. THERE ARE HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY DRY...WOULDN/T
EXPECT MORE THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT)
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA.
AS FOR HIGHS...VALUES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD BUT WARMER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY. 850MB TEMPS
STAY IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO MOST OF THE WEEK AND LIMITS HIGHS FROM
RISING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 20S LATE IN THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. SOME OF THE THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (AROUND 40
PERCENT) DO SHOW TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME FOR
MOST OF THE CWA SINCE FEB 21ST. 12Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS AROUND FREEZING ON MONDAY...SO WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND NEAR COMPLETE ICE
COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. -SN WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR VSBY WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT SAW BUT ALSO BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AT KIWD/KCMX. EXPECT THE
SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR AT IWD/CMX IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
A SFC TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TUE...WILL RESULT IN
A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER
20KT TONIGHT THRU TUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU WED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES
FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
357 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PERSISTENT TROF
OVER CANADA WITH CORE OF COLDEST AIR/CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY.
12Z H85 TEMPS UNDER THE LOWEST HGTS ARE AOB -30C...INDLUDING -30C AT
INL AND -33C AT YPL. WITH A LLVL NW FLOW E OF ARCTIC HI PRES OVER
THE CNDN PRAIRIES BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS...THIS COLD AIR IS
ADVECTING INTO UPR MI. ALTHOUGH LATEST VSBL STLT IMAGERY SHOWS LK
SUP IS MAINLY ICE COVERED...THERE ARE STILL SOME CLD/SHSN BANDS
STREAMING INTO THE AREA AS THE UPSTREAM 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS SHOWED A
RELATIVELY MOIST LLVL AIRMASS. BUT ANY PCPN HAS BEEN ON THE LGT
SIDE...WITH EXTENSIVE ICE AND LLVL ACYC FLOW TENDING TO LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHSN. ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH INCRSG EARLY
MARCH SUN ANGLE HAS ALSO RESULTED IN MORE INSTABILITY CU/SC OVER
LAND AS WELL. SOME THICKER MID/HI CLDS ARE IMPACTING WI AND SRN UPR
MI ON THE NRN FLANK OF DISTURBANCE/DEEPER MSTR TO THE S. SN UNDER
SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 140KT H3 JET MAX STREAKING ACRS NRN MN/LK
SUP IS AS FAR N AS SRN MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLD TRENDS/CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS.
TNGT...AS CNDN HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD INTO THE NRN PLAINS...AN
ACYC NW FLOW WL DOMINATE THE UPR LKS. ALTHOUGH SOME UPR DVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK MOVING THRU THE UPR LKS WL PASS ACRS THE
SCENTRAL THIS EVNG...GENERAL DRY ADVECTION IN THE H85-7 LYR SHOULD
SUPPRESS NRN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD TO THE S OF MENOMINEE. ALTHOUGH
SOME LK CLDS/A FEW SN SHOWERS OFF LK SUP MAY LINGER UNDER THE COLD
FLOW IN THE EVNG...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS ACYC FLOW/
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN TOWARD 2K FT SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS SHOULD
RESULT IN ALMOST COMPLETE SUPPRESSION OF CLDS/SN SHOWERS OVERNGT.
WITH SKIES TURNING MOCLR AND PWAT UNDER 0.10 INCH...EXPECT SFC TEMPS
TO TUMBLE AOB -20F AT MANY OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS. GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OF THE LK THAT WL TEND TO RESULT IN LOWER TEMPS
OVER THE CWA...TRENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
FCST. LOWERING INVRN BASE/INCRSG STABILITY SHOULD KEEP SFC WINDS
UNDER THE 10 MPH THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BUT ISSUED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE RESULTING VERY LO APRNT/WIND CHILL TEMPS THAT
WL FALL AS LO AS -35F AT SOME PLACES.
SUN...THERE WL BE A SHRTWV TRACKING SEWD TO THE NE OF UPR MI AND
THRU ONTARIO...BUT BULK OF ASSOCIATED UPR FORCING WL REMAIN TO THE
NE OF UPR MI. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSAGE OF ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LO PRES TROF MAY RESULT IN SOME CLDS AND EVEN A FEW LGT SN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA TOWARD THE ACCOMPANYING
DYANMIC FORCING...LO INVRN BASES SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO RANGE FM NEAR -20C OVER THE SCENTRAL TO AS LO AS
-24C OR -25C OVER THE N. WITH THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER...TEMPS WL
REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
PRETTY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM RELATIVE TO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING IN ON OR AFTER THURSDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE WITH DETAILS OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM IS LIMITED.
FOR REFERENCE...850MB TEMPS OVER THE CWA YESTERDAY /SAT/ WERE AROUND
-25C WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO. MONDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH 850MB
TEMPS CLOSER TO -15C...LEADING TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS...GIVEN THAT MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO. A WEAK SFC TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...INCREASING CLOUD
COVER DURING THAT TIME. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COLDER...BUT GIVEN THAT MON NIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE FROM THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BELOW ZERO...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO MON. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE
WEAK SHORTWAVE LATE MON NIGHT-TUE...SO WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST. WED SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE TEENS AS A SFC
HIGH MOVES E OF THE CWA. NOT ALL THAT MUCH CONFIDENCE AFTER WED DUE
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY...BUT OVERALL
EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN CONTROL. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM NW ONTARIO THIS AFTN WHICH MAY ALLOW CIGS TO
DEVELOP AROUND 3500 FT AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT CMX. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT VSBYS COULD BE REDUCED WITH ANY SNOW SHOWER AT CMX
LATER INTO THE AFTN OR EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL. HOWEVER...BLSN WITH A 6SM VSBY WILL BE
INCLUDED AT CMX DUE TO WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 30 KT. COULD SEE MVFR
OR EVEN IFR VSBYS AT CMX IN THE AFTN/EVE BUT AGAIN NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE INTO THE TERMINAL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
EXPECT NW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS TO THE E OF HI PRES BUILDING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KTS AFTER MON NIGHT AS
THE HI CENTER PASSES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1248 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PERSISTENT TROF
OVER CANADA WITH CORE OF COLDEST AIR/CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY.
12Z H85 TEMPS UNDER THE LOWEST HGTS ARE AOB -30C...INDLUDING -30C AT
INL AND -33C AT YPL. WITH A LLVL NW FLOW E OF ARCTIC HI PRES OVER
THE CNDN PRAIRIES BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS...THIS COLD AIR IS
ADVECTING INTO UPR MI. ALTHOUGH LATEST VSBL STLT IMAGERY SHOWS LK
SUP IS MAINLY ICE COVERED...THERE ARE STILL SOME CLD/SHSN BANDS
STREAMING INTO THE AREA AS THE UPSTREAM 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS SHOWED A
RELATIVELY MOIST LLVL AIRMASS. BUT ANY PCPN HAS BEEN ON THE LGT
SIDE...WITH EXTENSIVE ICE AND LLVL ACYC FLOW TENDING TO LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHSN. ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH INCRSG EARLY
MARCH SUN ANGLE HAS ALSO RESULTED IN MORE INSTABILITY CU/SC OVER
LAND AS WELL. SOME THICKER MID/HI CLDS ARE IMPACTING WI AND SRN UPR
MI ON THE NRN FLANK OF DISTURBANCE/DEEPER MSTR TO THE S. SN UNDER
SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 140KT H3 JET MAX STREAKING ACRS NRN MN/LK
SUP IS AS FAR N AS SRN MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLD TRENDS/CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS.
TNGT...AS CNDN HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD INTO THE NRN PLAINS...AN
ACYC NW FLOW WL DOMINATE THE UPR LKS. ALTHOUGH SOME UPR DVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK MOVING THRU THE UPR LKS WL PASS ACRS THE
SCENTRAL THIS EVNG...GENERAL DRY ADVECTION IN THE H85-7 LYR SHOULD
SUPPRESS NRN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD TO THE S OF MENOMINEE. ALTHOUGH
SOME LK CLDS/A FEW SN SHOWERS OFF LK SUP MAY LINGER UNDER THE COLD
FLOW IN THE EVNG...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS ACYC FLOW/
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN TOWARD 2K FT SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS SHOULD
RESULT IN ALMOST COMPLETE SUPPRESSION OF CLDS/SN SHOWERS OVERNGT.
WITH SKIES TURNING MOCLR AND PWAT UNDER 0.10 INCH...EXPECT SFC TEMPS
TO TUMBLE AOB -20F AT MANY OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS. GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OF THE LK THAT WL TEND TO RESULT IN LOWER TEMPS
OVER THE CWA...TRENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
FCST. LOWERING INVRN BASE/INCRSG STABILITY SHOULD KEEP SFC WINDS
UNDER THE 10 MPH THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BUT ISSUED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE RESULTING VERY LO APRNT/WIND CHILL TEMPS THAT
WL FALL AS LO AS -35F AT SOME PLACES.
SUN...THERE WL BE A SHRTWV TRACKING SEWD TO THE NE OF UPR MI AND
THRU ONTARIO...BUT BULK OF ASSOCIATED UPR FORCING WL REMAIN TO THE
NE OF UPR MI. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSAGE OF ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LO PRES TROF MAY RESULT IN SOME CLDS AND EVEN A FEW LGT SN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA TOWARD THE ACCOMPANYING
DYANMIC FORCING...LO INVRN BASES SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO RANGE FM NEAR -20C OVER THE SCENTRAL TO AS LO AS
-24C OR -25C OVER THE N. WITH THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER...TEMPS WL
REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL
TRANSITION AWAY FROM THE VERY COLD AIR AS THE HIGH LATITUDE RIDGING
INTO ERN AK SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO ERN SIBERIA. THE RESULTING
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO SHIFT OFF
TO THE NE AND MORE MODERATE PACIFIC AIR INTO THE CNTRL CONUS.
HOWEVER...A TREND BACK TOWARD RIDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH NW
FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES WILL KEEP ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE REGION FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SUN NIGHT...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN DROP TO THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...INTO THE -20F TO -30F RANGE INLAND WITH
TEENS BELOW READINGS CLOSER TO THE LAKES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OPEN
WATER PATCHES OVER THE S CNTRL LAKE FOR SOME ISOLD -SHSN INTO THE NE
CWA. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
MON INTO TUE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MON SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE 10F TO 15F RANGE. WNW TO W WINDS SHOULD KEEP ANY
LIGHT LES NEAR THE SHORE IN THE NE CWA. A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COULD BRING AN AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SINCE THE MODELS STILL SHOWED DIFFERENCES WITH
THE GFS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/GEM...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED. EVEN THE MORE
NRN TRACK WOULD ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
WED...MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
WITH DRY WEATHER AND MORE MODERATE BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS.
THU-SAT...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NRN LAKES BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH BETTER MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED GIVE TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES. THE WARMEST CONDITONS OF THE WEEK ARE POSSIBLE BY THU
WITH TEMPS NEAR 30F. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWVM
SHOULD BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE
LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN CONTROL. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM NW ONTARIO THIS AFTN WHICH MAY ALLOW CIGS TO
DEVELOP AROUND 3500 FT AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT CMX. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT VSBYS COULD BE REDUCED WITH ANY SNOW SHOWER AT CMX
LATER INTO THE AFTN OR EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL. HOWEVER...BLSN WITH A 6SM VSBY WILL BE
INCLUDED AT CMX DUE TO WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 30 KT. COULD SEE MVFR
OR EVEN IFR VSBYS AT CMX IN THE AFTN/EVE BUT AGAIN NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE INTO THE TERMINAL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
EXPECT NW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS TO THE E OF HI PRES BUILDING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KTS AFTER MON NIGHT AS
THE HI CENTER PASSES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
432 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
...RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW
IN THE COLDEST START TO MARCH SINCE 2002 AND ONE OF THE COLDEST
STARTS ON RECORD...
ALOFT: MODESTLY SPLIT LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW WAS OVER THE CONUS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING E THRU CO/NM INTO INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW.
THIS TROF WILL HEAD E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE SE STATES
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE WRN USA.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING ONSHORE INTO OR/NRN CA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS TROF WILL MISS THE
REGION FAR TO THE NW...BUT A LOW-AMPLITUDE PV STREAMER WILL MOVE
THRU TOMORROW...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THRU THE RIDGE.
SURFACE: ELONGATED AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRES EXTENDED FROM
WRN CANADA S INTO THE PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL SHRINK AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT...AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TOMORROW. THIS HIGH AND CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY MAJOR ROLES IN
HOW COLD TEMPS GET TONIGHT. BREAKING/SETTING RECORD LOWS IS ON THE
TABLE.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL ENCROACH
FROM THE N OF NEB HWY 92. SOME LIGHT SNOW /-SN/ MAY DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF S-CNTRL NEB. TEMPS DID GET ABOVE THE ALL-TIME RECORD
COLDEST FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFO ON RECORDS.
TONIGHT: UNSEASONABLE BITTER COLD! IF OUR TEMPS WORK OUT AS FCST...
LOWS WILL BE NEARLY 40F COLDER THAN WHERE THEY TYPICALLY ARE FOR
EARLY MARCH /LOW-MID 20S/.
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING CLOUDS.
SOME MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE UPSTREAM OVER WY...BUT THEY
WILL BE MOVING INTO SUBSIDENCE. SO AM NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLEAR...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INFLICT A MAJOR IMPACT
ON TEMPS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS WELL...
RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF CALM OR NEARLY CALM WINDS.
TEMPS: LOWS WERE -13 TO -20 OVER THE DAKOTA`S THIS MORNING. AND
WHILE THERE IS SNOWCOVER UP THERE...MOST OF IT IS A WEEK OLD. THE
OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS AIR MASS. THE 850
MB TEMP WAS -21C AT GRAND ISLAND THIS MORNING. BASED ON REANALYSIS
DATA...-21 AND COLDER HAS ONLY OCCURRED 4 TIMES IN THE PAST 34 YRS.
AND GIVEN THAT TEMPS WILL ONLY BE ABOVE FRZG FOR ABOUT 5 HRS TODAY
ALONG AND N OF HWY 6...I BELIEVE WE NEED TO FCST RECORD COLD.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS OVER MUCH OF S-CNTRL NEB.
LOW TEMPS WERE DROPPED 4-7F FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
A WIND CHILL /WC/ ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA.
FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E...A WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR 1-2 HRS OF
-30 TO -35 WC`S IN THE 6AM-9AM TIMEFRAME. JUST AS TEMPS BOTTOM
OUT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THIS WILL HAPPEN DURING THE
MORNING RUSH.
SNOW: A NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF HAS DEVELOPED ON SATELLITE WITH A
BLOSSOMING AREA OF DEFORMATION -SN OVER WRN KANSAS. THIS HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER N THAN THE 12Z NAM-DERIVED HI-RES MODELS FCST. THE
17Z HRRR HAS IT AND BELIEVE THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A
TOUCH OF -SN OVER PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS...ESPECIALLY FROM
STOCKTON-OSBORNE-BELOIT SOUTHWARD. A CHANCE OF -SN IS NOW IN THE
FCST. THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FCST TO DROP ESE WHICH WILL
ACTUALLY DRAG THE SNOW SHIELD AWAY FROM N-CNTRL KS AS SUNSET
APPROACHES.
TOMORROW: HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE MOVING IN AT DAWN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROF. SO OVERALL EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY AND
BLUSTERY DAY. HOW QUICKLY TEMPS WARM UP IS UNCERTAIN. SO CONFIDENCE
IN THE HOURLY TEMPS IS BELOW AVERAGE.
WENT ABOVE NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE ON WIND SPEEDS. AS A LEE-SIDE TROF
DEVELOPS...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TO 16 MB ACROSS NEB. THE
GFS/EC/NAM/SREF HAVE A 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAX AND BELIEVE WE
WILL TAP INTO THE UNDERSIDE OF IT.
MIXING HEIGHTS ARTIFICIALLY TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM WHICH
HAS ITS SNOWCOVER BIAS. EVEN IF WE USE THE CONSERVATIVE GFS MIXING
HEIGHTS AROUND 2K FT...THAT STILL WOULD ALLOW FOR MIXING DOWN 30
KTS.
HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-4F FROM THE PRIOR GID FCST...ALONG AND W OF
HWY 281.
POST MORTEM: LAST NIGHT`S SNOW RISK OVER CNTRL/NRN KS ENDED UP
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WHAT THE MODELS DEPICTED. THESE TYPE OF
SITUATIONS THAT ARE DRIVEN BY JET STREAK AND FRONTAL FORCING /IN THE
MID-LEVELS/ ARE INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO FCST. THERE IS NO LOW PRES
FROM WHICH WE DERIVE OUR TRADITIONAL FCST CUES. THESE ISOLATED
NARROW SNOW BANDS HAVE VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY. THE HI-RES MESOSCALE
MODELS DEPICT THEM VERY WELL /WHEN AND IF THEY ARE CORRECT/. YOU CAN
THROW OUT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS. THEY CANT HANDLE THESE SMALL
FEATURES AND ARE WAYYYY TO BROAD WITH THEIR QPF. THE BAND DID
DEVELOP BUT IT WAS MODELED TO BECOME STATIONARY ALONG/NEAR I-70
WHICH IT DID NOT. IT WAS TRANSIENT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME FRAME OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS...AS IS TYPICAL SEVERAL
PERIODS HAD HIGH/LOW TEMPS TWEAKED UPWARD OR DOWNWARD AS MUCH AS 2-5
DEGREES...BUT THE OVERALL THEME OF A TRANSITION TO MILDER WEATHER
REMAINS INTACT. THAT BEING SAID...ITS NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO BE A
CASE WHERE EACH DAY GETS PROGRESSIVELY WARMER...AS DAYS SUCH AS
WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY COULD END UP BEING EITHER
SMALL OR POTENTIALLY LARGER BUMPS IN THE ROAD. MEANWHILE...BOTH
THURSDAY AND VERY PRELIMINARILY NEXT SUNDAY BOTH LOOK LIKE THE BEST
CANDIDATES FOR THE MILDEST DAYS OF THE NEXT 7 WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 60S.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...THE MAJORITY OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD SHOULD BE
DRY...BUT 20-30 POPS CONTINUE FOR ALL OR PARTS OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A NEW SLIGHT CHANCE
HAS BEEN ADDED TO NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY DAYTIME...MAKING NOW A
TOTAL OF 4 PERIODS MENTIONING SOME RISK OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN BOTH OF THESE
WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING THE TUES
NIGHT-WED POSSIBILITY. FOR ONLY BEING A FEW DAYS AWAY...ITS STILL
TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER 1) THERE IS EVEN MUCH CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP AT ALL AND HENCE POPS KEPT LOW THUS FAR AND 2) IF PRECIP
DOES FALL...WHAT TYPE WILL IT ASSUME? KEEPING WITH THE REASONING
DISCUSSED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...HAVE KEPT ANY TUES-NIGHT WED PRECIP
TYPE AS SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW...BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SIGNS IN SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET/SOME TYPE OF WINTRY MIX COULD COME INTO PLAY HERE AS WELL.
GIVEN TIME IS STILL ON OUR SIDE HERE WITH THIS POSSIBLE ROUND OF
PRECIP STILL BEING 48+ HOURS AWAY...WILL KEEP THE BASIC TYPES FOR
NOW AND AVOID CLUTTERING THE FORECAST WITH TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
AND/OR CAUSING UNDUE CONCERN AS THE MENTION OF MIXED-PHASE WINTRY
TYPES CAN SOMETIMES DO. AS FOR POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH ANY
TUES NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PRECIP...ITS OBVIOUSLY WAY TOO EARLY TO TALK
SPECIFICS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS WITHIN 72
HOURS OF NOW HAVE TOSSED A VERY GENERIC COVERAGE OF AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1 INCH INTO THE OFFICIAL
SNOWFALL GRIDS. THE SAME SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW PRECIP TYPE ROUTE WAS
USED WITH THE FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT POPS...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE OF A TRUE SNOW EVENT WITH
LESS RISK OF MIXED-TYPES SHOULD IT OCCUR.
GETTING INTO MORE DETAIL AND STARTING WITH MONDAY
NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS UNDER
A BROAD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT THAT DEFINES MUCH OF THE
CONUS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME LOWER STRATUS COULD DEVELOP
AND STREAM NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE CWA IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BUT AM NOT SOLD ON THIS SCENARIO SO SKY COVER IS GENERALLY
AIMED INTO PARTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY BREEZES OF
AT LEAST 5-10 MPH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT
LOW TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY
MORNING BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THESE
VALUES...STILL AIMING FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 9-14 ABOVE ZERO.
FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE OVERALL STORY IN
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS INVOLVES THE GRADUAL EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
DEVELOPMENT OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE
PACIFIC COAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. WITH THE MAIN BATCH OF FORCING
STILL WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY HAVE KEPT IT
DRY...AND EVEN RAISED TEMPS 2-4 DEGREES GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT STARTS TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ZONES
IN THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THAT CLOUDS ARE NOT OVERLY
ABUNDANT...ITS POSSIBLE THAT ADVERTISED HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 30S
NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH...BUT ITS
ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE HIGHS ADVERTISED BY THE LAST FEW NAM
RUNS APPEAR WAY TOO COLD. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES GROW...BUT VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF BRING AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP OF AT LEAST SOME VARIETY
INTO THE AREA BEFORE MOVING IT OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW STRONG THE SYNOPTIC FORCING/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE WITH THIS WAVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AS THAT WILL ULTIMATELY
SPELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LEGITIMATE LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
SUCH AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM AND OTHER MODELS...OR ESSENTIALLY NOTHING
WHATSOEVER AS ADVERTISED BY THE 12Z GEM MODEL. THE PRESENCE OF
PRECIP OR LACK THEREOF WILL ALSO AFFECT HIGHS WED...AND WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING LOW OPTED TO MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS WITH
GENERALLY MID-UPPER 30S.
THURSDAY DAYTIME THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS LOOKS TO FEATURE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BEFORE GIVING WAY TO THE
NEXT POTENTIAL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AS
A RESULT...A BIT OF A TEMPERATURE ROLLER-COASTER STARTS TO DEVELOP.
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW/GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION GOING AHEAD
OF THIS DISTURBANCE ON THURS...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
AWHILE...AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH A RANGE FROM UPPER
40S-UPPER 50S. THEN FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A POTENTIALLY
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA...AND AS
A RESULT FRIDAY HIGHS WERE LOWERED 3-5 DEGREES...BUT STILL UPPER 30S
NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH FOR NOW. AS EARLIER MENTIONED...SLIGHT POPS
MAINLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH COULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW PER THE LATEST
ECMWF BUT LESS-SO THE GFS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND ASSUMING THAT FRIDAY
NIGHT PRECIP MOVES OUT BY SATURDAY DAYTIME...AS THE PATTERN ALOFT
AGAIN TRANSITIONS TO RIDGING. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO SATURDAY HIGHS
WITH A RANGE OF 40S ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF IS
COOLER THAN THIS. VERY PRELIMINARILY...SUNDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE
OUTRIGHT-WARMEST DAY OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST...AND FOR NOW HAVE
WIDESPREAD 50S IN NEB ZONES AND LOW 60S IN KS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z GRI TAF THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
THIS AFTERNOON: VFR. DRIER AIR IS ERODING THE 5K FT STRATUS FROM
THE NE. EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR AT GRI WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ONLY
TO REVEAL BKN 9K FT CIGS AND 20K FT OVC. N WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10
KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: VFR AND BECOMING NEARLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE...BUT ORGANIZE FROM THE S AFTER 09Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
MON MORNING: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS MOVING IN AND CASCADING
DOWNWARD WITH OTHER MID-LEVEL LAYERS OF ALTOCU/ALTOSTRATUS.
RUNWAYS WILL NEED TO CHANGE AS WINDS BECOME S AROUND 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO GET HIGH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN MARCH. IT HAS ONLY HAPPENED 5 TIMES EVER AT GRAND ISLAND AND
HASTINGS.
VULNERABLE LOW TEMP RECORDS TODAY:
GRAND ISLAND: -5 IN 1960 (TIED)
HASTINGS: -5 IN 1913 (TIED)
* BOTH OF THESE RECORDS CAN BE BROKEN IF TEMPS DROP BELOW -5F
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
VULNERABLE COLDEST DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TODAY:
GRAND ISLAND: 10 IN 2002 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH: 7)
HASTINGS: 11 IN 2002 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH: 7)
VULNERABLE LOW TEMP RECORDS FOR TOMORROW 3/3:
GRAND ISLAND: -16 IN 1960
HASTINGS: -10 IN 1960
ALL-TIME COLDEST HIGH TEMPS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH:
GRAND ISLAND: 4 ON 3/10/1948
HASTINGS: 3 ON 3/11/1948
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-073>076.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ060-072-077-082>087.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1051 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD CIG AND VIZ EXCURSIONS TO IFR ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA MOVES TO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z
SUNDAY AFTERNOON PAINTING WIDE SWATH OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND
SNOW. MT OBSCURATION WIDESPREAD UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST FROM 21Z ONWARD SUN AFTERNOON...WITH LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS REMAINING AT 06Z AND CONTINUING BEYOND. TAFS
WRITTEN WITH SCT CLOUD GROUP AT LOWEST EXPECTED CEILING...WITH
VCSH WRITTEN BEYOND THE FIRST 6 HOURS TO SIGNAL CONTINUED SHOWER
PROXIMITY WITH POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR EXCURSIONS BOTTOMING IN
ASSOCIATED SCT LEVEL.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1022 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL AS WEATHER TYPES IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH THIS
EVENING. ADDED CURRY COUNTY TO THE WINTER WX ADVY...BUT MODELS
NOT HANDLING TEMPS VERY WELL...AND STILL ON THE FENCE ABOUT
POTENTIAL FOR ADDING ROOSEVELT COUNTY AS WELL AS EASTERN SAN MIGUEL
AND POSSIBLY GUADALUPE TO A WINTER WX ADVY. UPDATED ZFP AND WSW
ALREADY OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...450 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014...
.UPDATE...
ALLOWING WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE SOME ROGUE GUSTS DUE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. ZFP UPDATE WAS TO
STRIP HEADLINE...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW DOWN TO NEAR 6000 FEET TONIGHT BEFORE MIXING WITH RAIN
AGAIN SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. STRONG WINDS OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. A
POTENT COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY...
LEAVING BEHIND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH AS A COUPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE STATE. PERIODIC BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT THE PLAINS AND PATCHY CLOUD COVER WITH EVEN A FEW SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT THE HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A WELCOME SITE IT IS AS A DEEP FETCH OF RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN
SNOW IMPACTS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL
SHOWS THE CORE OF A WELL-DEFINED STORM SYSTEM CRASHING ONSHORE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A MASSIVE FETCH OF MOIST SW FLOW SHIFTING
INTO AZ AND NM. CIRA TOTAL PWAT VALUES ARE ABOVE 200PCT OF NORMAL IN
THIS PLUME AND IT WILL SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER NM THRU THIS EVENING. SFC
AND MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE TRENDING DOWN WITH THE AID OF EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING AND SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. SNOW REPORTS SO FAR RANGE
FROM ABOUT 1 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 7500 FT. THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTION
AGREES THE CURRENT PLUME WILL SHIFT SE OVER CENTRAL NM THRU THIS
EVENING THEN INTO SOUTHERN NM LATE TONIGHT.
A SECONDARY VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER COLD CORE WILL SHIFT
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...DELIVERING A SECONDARY
PEAK IN PRECIP COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THIS SECONDARY PRECIP
MAX. HOWEVER...BASED ON TREND OF LATEST HRRR AFTER 06Z CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WILL VERIFY THIS MAX ALONG
THE I-40/CONT DVD CORRIDOR INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN MTS LATE TONIGHT.
THE NE PLAINS WILL BE A TRICKY AREA AS WELL WITH SOME INCREDIBLE
SPATIAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ON THE LATEST 21Z OBS. THE FRONT HAS
PUSHED THROUGH TRINIDAD WHERE THE TEMP IS 21F WHILE RATON IS WINDY
WITH A TEMP OF 61F! MODELS ARE TRENDING THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY SO EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF ADVISORY SOUTH AND WEST. FOR THIS UPDATE
WILL EXPAND ADVISORY INTO RATON RIDGE ZONE. MODEL PROFILES OVER
THE NE SUGGEST A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW THRU AT
LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MID LEVEL COLDER AIR SLIDES OVER
AND CHANGES ALL ACTIVITY TO SNOW.
BEYOND SUNDAY...THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN WEST TO NW
FLOW THAT WILL SLIDE QUICKLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WHILE WINDS ARE PERIODICALLY BREEZY OUT
EAST. A FEW PERIODS OF THICK CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST PACIFIC TROUGH TO GRADUALLY CROSS THIS WEEKEND WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS HAVE
ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF BEGINNING A DOWNWARD TREND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT. A BAND OF MAINLY WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION OF NW NM...BRINGING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THAT AREA. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION LEVEL MAY ONLY DROP TO ABOUT 7000 FEET TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL REALLY BENEFIT FROM THE DWELL
TIME OF ALL THIS MOISTURE WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED IN ALL NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH NEARLY 20
INCHES.
A SECONDARY LOCATION FAVORED FOR ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND QUAY COUNTY...WHERE A POTENT BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIFT AS THE MOIST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH SLEET AND EVEN SOME
FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST
AREAS WILL FALL 35 TO 40 DEGREES SUNDAY FROM TODAYS READINGS LEAVING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S.
STRONG WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REBOUND THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A
NOTABLE EXCEPTION BEING SOME COOLER READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING
VERY WELL ON A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THIS WINTER...THE ECMWF IS DEEPER/WETTER/SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IS
SHALLOWER/DRIER/FASTER. GRIDS ARE ALIGNED WITH THE GFS SOLUTION FOR
NOW.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY QUICKLY TRANSITION TO GUSTY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BE OUR NEXT DAY WITH WIND AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FORECAST GRIDS CURRENTLY SHOW THE TYPICAL PATCH OF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AROUND CLINES CORNERS
AND SANTA ROSA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK FROM 3 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY.
VENTILATION-WISE...WATCH FOR POOR READINGS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW...SUNDAY.
ALSO...IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM...AREAS OF POOR
VENTILATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE
NORTHWESTWARD TO GALLUP AND FARMINGTON. FURTHER...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH COOL AND SETTLED AIR
FOR AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WEDNESDAY.
44
&&
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ503>507-516-527-528-530-531-534-535.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ502-508-510>515-521-526.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1022 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL AS WEATHER TYPES IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH THIS
EVENING. ADDED CURRY COUNTY TO THE WINTER WX ADVY...BUT MODELS
NOT HANDLING TEMPS VERY WELL...AND STILL ON THE FENCE ABOUT
POTENTIAL FOR ADDING ROOSEVELT COUNTY AS WELL AS EASTERN SAN MIGUEL
AND POSSIBLY GUADALUPE TO A WINTER WX ADVY. UPDATED ZFP AND WSW
ALREADY OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...450 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014...
.UPDATE...
ALLOWING WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE SOME ROGUE GUSTS DUE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. ZFP UPDATE WAS TO
STRIP HEADLINE...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...447 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WIDESPREAD EXCURSIONS TO IFR AND LIFR CIGS
AND VIZ AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH WITH MT OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING THROUGH 21Z FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH LOW CIGS AND VIZ
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS CONTINUING AFTER 00Z.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW DOWN TO NEAR 6000 FEET TONIGHT BEFORE MIXING WITH RAIN
AGAIN SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. STRONG WINDS OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. A
POTENT COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY...
LEAVING BEHIND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH AS A COUPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE STATE. PERIODIC BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT THE PLAINS AND PATCHY CLOUD COVER WITH EVEN A FEW SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT THE HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A WELCOME SITE IT IS AS A DEEP FETCH OF RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN
SNOW IMPACTS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL
SHOWS THE CORE OF A WELL-DEFINED STORM SYSTEM CRASHING ONSHORE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A MASSIVE FETCH OF MOIST SW FLOW SHIFTING
INTO AZ AND NM. CIRA TOTAL PWAT VALUES ARE ABOVE 200PCT OF NORMAL IN
THIS PLUME AND IT WILL SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER NM THRU THIS EVENING. SFC
AND MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE TRENDING DOWN WITH THE AID OF EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING AND SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. SNOW REPORTS SO FAR RANGE
FROM ABOUT 1 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 7500 FT. THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTION
AGREES THE CURRENT PLUME WILL SHIFT SE OVER CENTRAL NM THRU THIS
EVENING THEN INTO SOUTHERN NM LATE TONIGHT.
A SECONDARY VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER COLD CORE WILL SHIFT
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...DELIVERING A SECONDARY
PEAK IN PRECIP COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THIS SECONDARY PRECIP
MAX. HOWEVER...BASED ON TREND OF LATEST HRRR AFTER 06Z CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WILL VERIFY THIS MAX ALONG
THE I-40/CONT DVD CORRIDOR INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN MTS LATE TONIGHT.
THE NE PLAINS WILL BE A TRICKY AREA AS WELL WITH SOME INCREDIBLE
SPATIAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ON THE LATEST 21Z OBS. THE FRONT HAS
PUSHED THROUGH TRINIDAD WHERE THE TEMP IS 21F WHILE RATON IS WINDY
WITH A TEMP OF 61F! MODELS ARE TRENDING THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY SO EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF ADVISORY SOUTH AND WEST. FOR THIS UPDATE
WILL EXPAND ADVISORY INTO RATON RIDGE ZONE. MODEL PROFILES OVER
THE NE SUGGEST A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW THRU AT
LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MID LEVEL COLDER AIR SLIDES OVER
AND CHANGES ALL ACTIVITY TO SNOW.
BEYOND SUNDAY...THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN WEST TO NW
FLOW THAT WILL SLIDE QUICKLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WHILE WINDS ARE PERIODICALLY BREEZY OUT
EAST. A FEW PERIODS OF THICK CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST PACIFIC TROUGH TO GRADUALLY CROSS THIS WEEKEND WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS HAVE
ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF BEGINNING A DOWNWARD TREND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT. A BAND OF MAINLY WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION OF NW NM...BRINGING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THAT AREA. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION LEVEL MAY ONLY DROP TO ABOUT 7000 FEET TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL REALLY BENEFIT FROM THE DWELL
TIME OF ALL THIS MOISTURE WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED IN ALL NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH NEARLY 20
INCHES.
A SECONDARY LOCATION FAVORED FOR ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND QUAY COUNTY...WHERE A POTENT BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIFT AS THE MOIST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH SLEET AND EVEN SOME
FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST
AREAS WILL FALL 35 TO 40 DEGREES SUNDAY FROM TODAYS READINGS LEAVING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S.
STRONG WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REBOUND THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A
NOTABLE EXCEPTION BEING SOME COOLER READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING
VERY WELL ON A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THIS WINTER...THE ECMWF IS DEEPER/WETTER/SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IS
SHALLOWER/DRIER/FASTER. GRIDS ARE ALIGNED WITH THE GFS SOLUTION FOR
NOW.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY QUICKLY TRANSITION TO GUSTY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BE OUR NEXT DAY WITH WIND AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FORECAST GRIDS CURRENTLY SHOW THE TYPICAL PATCH OF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AROUND CLINES CORNERS
AND SANTA ROSA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK FROM 3 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY.
VENTILATION-WISE...WATCH FOR POOR READINGS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW...SUNDAY.
ALSO...IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM...AREAS OF POOR
VENTILATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE
NORTHWESTWARD TO GALLUP AND FARMINGTON. FURTHER...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH COOL AND SETTLED AIR
FOR AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WEDNESDAY.
44
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ503>507-516-527-528-530-531-534-535.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ502-508-510>515-521-526.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1232 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EST SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...AS WELL AS
THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME SUNNY BREAKS
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AREAS OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY TO REFLECT THE END OF THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD ADVECTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB MUCH
MORE FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 606 AM EST SUNDAY...UPDATED FCST TO MENTION LIKELY
POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS THRU 15Z...AND ADJUSTED
CRNT TEMPS BASED ON OBS. LATEST SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS THE
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLW AND FAVORABLE LVLL MOISTURE PROFILES WL
CONT TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS THRU MID MORNING TODAY.
ALREADY RECEIVE A REPORT FROM STOWE AT 1500 FEET OF 3.5" OF FLUFFY
SNOW...THINKING AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE MOISTURE IN FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION DECREASES AND
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS CHANGES TO FLURRIES. HAVE
NOTED SOME VERY DRY AIR JUST OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
MORNING WITH SFC DWPTS <0F MOVING TWD OUR REGION ON BRISK NW
WINDS. THIS LLVL DRY AIR WL UNCUT MID LVL MOISTURE ALOFT TO
DECREASE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPS WL CONT TO FALL BEHIND THE
FRNT THIS MORNING...BEFORE LEVELING OFF AROUND MIDDAY. VERY COLD
NIGHT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...HAVE DECREASED TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS. THINKING BTWN
-12F AND -18F SLK/NEK TO -5F TO -12F CENTRAL VT/SLV TO -5F TO 5F
CPV/LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
PICTURE BIG WATER VAPOR SHOWS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER LVL
MOISTURE DRAPED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS THIS
MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND S/W ENERGY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS MID LVL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD PVA
ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WL CONT TO IMPACT OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING...BEFORE DEPARTING OUR CWA BY 15Z.
THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED TIGHT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THERMAL
GRADIENT WITH LLVL CAA WL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT TEMP FCST TODAY.
PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -20C NEAR MSS AT 15Z TODAY TO -9C
AT VSF...INDICATING THE SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT ACRS OUR REGION. WL
MENTION HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS DACKS/SLV TO UPPER
20S LWR CT RIVER VALLEY WITH VALUES IN THE L20S ACRS THE CPV...BUT
FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. ALSO...WL CONT
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA TIMING...WHICH
WL BE BTWN 12Z-15Z FOR OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
LATEST RAP CONTS TO SHOW GOOD 850 TO 500MB RH...ALONG WITH SOME
FAVORABLE 850 TO 700MB FGEN LIFT AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT QPF/PROGGED
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RETURNS. STILL ANTICIPATING SOME VIRGA WITH
INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP...AS LARGE SPREAD CONTS BTWN SFC TEMP AND
DWPTS. SNOWFALL WL RANGE BTWN DUSTING AND 2 INCHES THRU
15Z....BEFORE DRYING AIR AND SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA
THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THRU TUESDAY WL BE THE MUCH BLW
NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED...AND JUST HOW COLD WE GET. STILL
NOTICING A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE BTWN THE COLDER MAV
AND WARMER MET NUMBERS...WITH THE ECE MOS SHOWING A NICE
COMPROMISE. WL USE A BLEND FOR TEMPS...WITH A TREND TWD THE
ECE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. FOR TONIGHT...SFC
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND WEAK LOW PRES TO OUR EAST WL RESULT IN BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS ACRS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN COLD WIND CHILL AND
KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED. THIS MIXING WL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT WITH LOWS EXPECTED BTWN -5F AND -10F
SLV/DACKS/NEK TO -5F TO +5F CPV/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. THESE
EXPECTED TEMPS COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNTS WL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -10F AND -20F ACRS THE DACKS...VERY
SIMILAR TO A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO. GIVEN MARGINALLY REACHING WIND
CHILL CRITERIA AND RECENT COLD WX...WL NOT BE ISSUING HIGHLIGHT
WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT WL MENTION IN HWO. ALSO...AS TEMPS DROP BLW
-5F IN THE COLDER VALLEYS...WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS AND
BECOME MORE TRRN DRIVEN. FOR MONDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLW CONTS
WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ONLY BTWN -18C AND -22C...WHICH ARE 2 TO
3 STD BLW NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY WL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS
MTNS/SLK/NEK TO LOWER TEENS CENTRAL VT/MPV TO MID TEENS CPV/LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS FROM LLVL INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HRS. SFC RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROP
WITH LOWS AROUND -20F EXPECTED ACRS THE DACKS/NEK TO -15F CENTRAL
VT VALLEYS/NASHVILLE TO -10F SLV TO 0 TO -5F CPV/UHI AREAS. WL
TREND TWD THE WARMER MET/ECE SOLUTIONS...GIVEN RECENT BETTER
PERFORMANCE WITH TEMPS AND SLIGHT WARMING IN LVLL THERMAL
PROFILES.
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SOUTH OF REGION AS MID LVL MOISTURE
AND 5H VORT IN THE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT APPROACH OUR CWA.
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY LLVLS WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT
HAVE NOTICED BOTH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF ACRS
OUR REGION. WL MENTION SOME VERY LOW CHC POPS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LVL MOISTURE AND 5H VORT...BUT THINKING BETTER CHCS ARRIVE WITH NEXT
SFC BOUNDARY ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...SOME WL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
MTNS TO NEAR 20F WARMER VALLEYS. STILL 10 TO 20 DEGREES BLW NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...WE CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH NEW BRUNSWICK UPPER LOW ROTATING WEAK REPLENISHMENT OF
COLD AIR FOR LATE WED/WED NGT. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THIS AS IT MOVES THRU...PRETTY MUCH COLDER THAN
NORMAL/DRY PATTERN PERSISTING.
SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING MID/LATE WEEK ACRS CONUS WITH OUR FA MAINLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM. WITH ZONAL FLOW AND MODERATING
TMPS FOR LATE WEEK INTO ERLY WEEKEND WITH NRN STREAM DELIVERING WEAK
COLD FRONT SAT NGT/SUN TIMEFRAME WITH SOME SHSN.
MEANWHILE... A SRN STREAM LOW DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO TRAVEL OFF SE
CONUS/MID ATLANTIC THU NGT/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...AS AN ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS
WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 00Z AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL CIGS JUST ABOVE TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT LEAVING SCT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT RETURN TO FEW-SCT 040-050 AFTER 14Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION...WITH BRIEF IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
959 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EST SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...AS WELL AS
THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME SUNNY BREAKS
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AREAS OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY TO REFLECT THE END OF THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD ADVECTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB MUCH
MORE FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 606 AM EST SUNDAY...UPDATED FCST TO MENTION LIKELY
POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS THRU 15Z...AND ADJUSTED
CRNT TEMPS BASED ON OBS. LATEST SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS THE
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLW AND FAVORABLE LVLL MOISTURE PROFILES WL
CONT TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS THRU MID MORNING TODAY.
ALREADY RECEIVE A REPORT FROM STOWE AT 1500 FEET OF 3.5" OF FLUFFY
SNOW...THINKING AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE MOISTURE IN FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION DECREASES AND
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS CHANGES TO FLURRIES. HAVE
NOTED SOME VERY DRY AIR JUST OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
MORNING WITH SFC DWPTS <0F MOVING TWD OUR REGION ON BRISK NW
WINDS. THIS LLVL DRY AIR WL UNCUT MID LVL MOISTURE ALOFT TO
DECREASE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPS WL CONT TO FALL BEHIND THE
FRNT THIS MORNING...BEFORE LEVELING OFF AROUND MIDDAY. VERY COLD
NIGHT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...HAVE DECREASED TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS. THINKING BTWN
-12F AND -18F SLK/NEK TO -5F TO -12F CENTRAL VT/SLV TO -5F TO 5F
CPV/LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
PICTURE BIG WATER VAPOR SHOWS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER LVL
MOISTURE DRAPED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS THIS
MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND S/W ENERGY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS MID LVL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD PVA
ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WL CONT TO IMPACT OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING...BEFORE DEPARTING OUR CWA BY 15Z.
THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED TIGHT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THERMAL
GRADIENT WITH LLVL CAA WL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT TEMP FCST TODAY.
PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -20C NEAR MSS AT 15Z TODAY TO -9C
AT VSF...INDICATING THE SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT ACRS OUR REGION. WL
MENTION HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS DACKS/SLV TO UPPER
20S LWR CT RIVER VALLEY WITH VALUES IN THE L20S ACRS THE CPV...BUT
FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. ALSO...WL CONT
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA TIMING...WHICH
WL BE BTWN 12Z-15Z FOR OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
LATEST RAP CONTS TO SHOW GOOD 850 TO 500MB RH...ALONG WITH SOME
FAVORABLE 850 TO 700MB FGEN LIFT AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT QPF/PROGGED
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RETURNS. STILL ANTICIPATING SOME VIRGA WITH
INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP...AS LARGE SPREAD CONTS BTWN SFC TEMP AND
DWPTS. SNOWFALL WL RANGE BTWN DUSTING AND 2 INCHES THRU
15Z....BEFORE DRYING AIR AND SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA
THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THRU TUESDAY WL BE THE MUCH BLW
NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED...AND JUST HOW COLD WE GET. STILL
NOTICING A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE BTWN THE COLDER MAV
AND WARMER MET NUMBERS...WITH THE ECE MOS SHOWING A NICE
COMPROMISE. WL USE A BLEND FOR TEMPS...WITH A TREND TWD THE
ECE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. FOR TONIGHT...SFC
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND WEAK LOW PRES TO OUR EAST WL RESULT IN BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS ACRS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN COLD WIND CHILL AND
KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED. THIS MIXING WL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT WITH LOWS EXPECTED BTWN -5F AND -10F
SLV/DACKS/NEK TO -5F TO +5F CPV/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. THESE
EXPECTED TEMPS COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNTS WL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -10F AND -20F ACRS THE DACKS...VERY
SIMILAR TO A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO. GIVEN MARGINALLY REACHING WIND
CHILL CRITERIA AND RECENT COLD WX...WL NOT BE ISSUING HIGHLIGHT
WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT WL MENTION IN HWO. ALSO...AS TEMPS DROP BLW
-5F IN THE COLDER VALLEYS...WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS AND
BECOME MORE TRRN DRIVEN. FOR MONDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLW CONTS
WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ONLY BTWN -18C AND -22C...WHICH ARE 2 TO
3 STD BLW NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY WL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS
MTNS/SLK/NEK TO LOWER TEENS CENTRAL VT/MPV TO MID TEENS CPV/LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS FROM LLVL INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HRS. SFC RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROP
WITH LOWS AROUND -20F EXPECTED ACRS THE DACKS/NEK TO -15F CENTRAL
VT VALLEYS/NASHVILLE TO -10F SLV TO 0 TO -5F CPV/UHI AREAS. WL
TREND TWD THE WARMER MET/ECE SOLUTIONS...GIVEN RECENT BETTER
PERFORMANCE WITH TEMPS AND SLIGHT WARMING IN LVLL THERMAL
PROFILES.
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SOUTH OF REGION AS MID LVL MOISTURE
AND 5H VORT IN THE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT APPROACH OUR CWA.
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY LLVLS WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT
HAVE NOTICED BOTH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF ACRS
OUR REGION. WL MENTION SOME VERY LOW CHC POPS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LVL MOISTURE AND 5H VORT...BUT THINKING BETTER CHCS ARRIVE WITH NEXT
SFC BOUNDARY ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...SOME WL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
MTNS TO NEAR 20F WARMER VALLEYS. STILL 10 TO 20 DEGREES BLW NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...WE CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH NEW BRUNSWICK UPPER LOW ROTATING WEAK REPLENISHMENT OF
COLD AIR FOR LATE WED/WED NGT. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THIS AS IT MOVES THRU...PRETTY MUCH COLDER THAN
NORMAL/DRY PATTERN PERSISTING.
SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING MID/LATE WEEK ACRS CONUS WITH OUR FA MAINLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM. WITH ZONAL FLOW AND MODERATING
TMPS FOR LATE WEEK INTO ERLY WEEKEND WITH NRN STREAM DELIVERING WEAK
COLD FRONT SAT NGT/SUN TIMEFRAME WITH SOME SHSN.
MEANWHILE... A SRN STREAM LOW DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO TRAVEL OFF SE
CONUS/MID ATLANTIC THU NGT/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH OF
FA THIS MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTH OF FA
THIS MORNING AS WELL.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KSLK/KBTV/KMPV AND KRUT UNTIL MID-MRNG
THEN VFR WITH GRADUAL CLRG SKIES THAT WILL CONTINUE OVRNGT. NW
WINDS 10-15KTS ERLY WL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS THIS AFTN AND LIGT TO
5 KTS OVRNGT.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
628 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD TEMPERATURES. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS DROPPING
BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 606 AM EST SUNDAY...UPDATED FCST TO MENTION LIKELY POPS ACRS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS THRU 15Z...AND ADJUSTED CRNT TEMPS
BASED ON OBS. LATEST SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS THE COMBINATION OF
UPSLOPE FLW AND FAVORABLE LVLL MOISTURE PROFILES WL CONT TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS THRU MID MORNING TODAY. ALREADY
RECEIVE A REPORT FROM STOWE AT 1500 FEET OF 3.5" OF FLUFFY
SNOW...THINKING AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE MOISTURE IN FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION DECREASES AND
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS CHANGES TO FLURRIES. HAVE
NOTED SOME VERY DRY AIR JUST OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
MORNING WITH SFC DWPTS <0F MOVING TWD OUR REGION ON BRISK NW
WINDS. THIS LLVL DRY AIR WL UNCUT MID LVL MOISTURE ALOFT TO
DECREASE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPS WL CONT TO FALL BEHIND THE
FRNT THIS MORNING...BEFORE LEVELING OFF AROUND MIDDAY. VERY COLD
NIGHT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...HAVE DECREASED TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS. THINKING BTWN
-12F AND -18F SLK/NEK TO -5F TO -12F CENTRAL VT/SLV TO -5F TO 5F
CPV/LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
PICTURE BIG WATER VAPOR SHOWS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER LVL
MOISTURE DRAPED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS THIS
MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND S/W ENERGY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS MID LVL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD PVA
ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WL CONT TO IMPACT OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING...BEFORE DEPARTING OUR CWA BY 15Z.
THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED TIGHT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THERMAL
GRADIENT WITH LLVL CAA WL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT TEMP FCST TODAY.
PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -20C NEAR MSS AT 15Z TODAY TO -9C
AT VSF...INDICATING THE SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT ACRS OUR REGION. WL
MENTION HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS DACKS/SLV TO UPPER
20S LWR CT RIVER VALLEY WITH VALUES IN THE L20S ACRS THE CPV...BUT
FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. ALSO...WL CONT
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA TIMING...WHICH
WL BE BTWN 12Z-15Z FOR OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
LATEST RAP CONTS TO SHOW GOOD 850 TO 500MB RH...ALONG WITH SOME
FAVORABLE 850 TO 700MB FGEN LIFT AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT QPF/PROGGED
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RETURNS. STILL ANTICIPATING SOME VIRGA WITH
INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP...AS LARGE SPREAD CONTS BTWN SFC TEMP AND
DWPTS. SNOWFALL WL RANGE BTWN DUSTING AND 2 INCHES THRU
15Z....BEFORE DRYING AIR AND SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA
THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THRU TUESDAY WL BE THE MUCH BLW
NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED...AND JUST HOW COLD WE GET. STILL
NOTICING A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE BTWN THE COLDER MAV
AND WARMER MET NUMBERS...WITH THE ECE MOS SHOWING A NICE
COMPROMISE. WL USE A BLEND FOR TEMPS...WITH A TREND TWD THE
ECE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. FOR TONIGHT...SFC
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND WEAK LOW PRES TO OUR EAST WL RESULT IN BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS ACRS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN COLD WIND CHILL AND
KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED. THIS MIXING WL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT WITH LOWS EXPECTED BTWN -5F AND -10F
SLV/DACKS/NEK TO -5F TO +5F CPV/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. THESE
EXPECTED TEMPS COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNTS WL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -10F AND -20F ACRS THE DACKS...VERY
SIMILAR TO A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO. GIVEN MARGINALLY REACHING WIND
CHILL CRITERIA AND RECENT COLD WX...WL NOT BE ISSUING HIGHLIGHT
WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT WL MENTION IN HWO. ALSO...AS TEMPS DROP BLW
-5F IN THE COLDER VALLEYS...WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS AND
BECOME MORE TRRN DRIVEN. FOR MONDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLW CONTS
WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ONLY BTWN -18C AND -22C...WHICH ARE 2 TO
3 STD BLW NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY WL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS
MTNS/SLK/NEK TO LOWER TEENS CENTRAL VT/MPV TO MID TEENS CPV/LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS FROM LLVL INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HRS. SFC RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROP
WITH LOWS AROUND -20F EXPECTED ACRS THE DACKS/NEK TO -15F CENTRAL
VT VALLEYS/NASHVILLE TO -10F SLV TO 0 TO -5F CPV/UHI AREAS. WL
TREND TWD THE WARMER MET/ECE SOLUTIONS...GIVEN RECENT BETTER
PERFORMANCE WITH TEMPS AND SLIGHT WARMING IN LVLL THERMAL
PROFILES.
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SOUTH OF REGION AS MID LVL MOISTURE
AND 5H VORT IN THE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT APPROACH OUR CWA.
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY LLVLS WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT
HAVE NOTICED BOTH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF ACRS
OUR REGION. WL MENTION SOME VERY LOW CHC POPS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LVL MOISTURE AND 5H VORT...BUT THINKING BETTER CHCS ARRIVE WITH NEXT
SFC BOUNDARY ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...SOME WL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
MTNS TO NEAR 20F WARMER VALLEYS. STILL 10 TO 20 DEGREES BLW NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...WE CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH NEW BRUNSWICK UPPER LOW ROTATING WEAK REPLENISHMENT OF
COLD AIR FOR LATE WED/WED NGT. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THIS AS IT MOVES THRU...PRETTY MUCH COLDER THAN
NORMAL/DRY PATTERN PERSISTING.
SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING MID/LATE WEEK ACRS CONUS WITH OUR FA MAINLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM. WITH ZONAL FLOW AND MODERATING
TMPS FOR LATE WEEK INTO ERLY WEEKEND WITH NRN STREAM DELIVERING WEAK
COLD FRONT SAT NGT/SUN TIMEFRAME WITH SOME SHSN.
MEANWHILE... A SRN STREAM LOW DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO TRAVEL OFF SE
CONUS/MID ATLANTIC THU NGT/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH OF
FA THIS MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTH OF FA
THIS MORNING AS WELL.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KSLK/KBTV/KMPV AND KRUT UNTIL MID-MRNG
THEN VFR WITH GRADUAL CLRG SKIES THAT WILL CONTINUE OVRNGT. NW
WINDS 10-15KTS ERLY WL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS THIS AFTN AND LIGT TO
5 KTS OVRNGT.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
614 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD TEMPERATURES. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS DROPPING
BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 606 AM EST SUNDAY...UPDATED FCST TO MENTION LIKELY POPS ACRS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS THRU 15Z...AND ADJUSTED CRNT TEMPS
BASED ON OBS. LATEST SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS THE COMBINATION OF
UPSLOPE FLW AND FAVORABLE LVLL MOISTURE PROFILES WL CONT TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS THRU MID MORNING TODAY. ALREADY
RECEIVE A REPORT FROM STOWE AT 1500 FEET OF 3.5" OF FLUFFY
SNOW...THINKING AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE MOISTURE IN FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION DECREASES AND
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS CHANGES TO FLURRIES. HAVE
NOTED SOME VERY DRY AIR JUST OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
MORNING WITH SFC DWPTS <0F MOVING TWD OUR REGION ON BRISK NW
WINDS. THIS LLVL DRY AIR WL UNCUT MID LVL MOISTURE ALOFT TO
DECREASE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPS WL CONT TO FALL BEHIND THE
FRNT THIS MORNING...BEFORE LEVELING OFF AROUND MIDDAY. VERY COLD
NIGHT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...HAVE DECREASED TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS. THINKING BTWN
-12F AND -18F SLK/NEK TO -5F TO -12F CENTRAL VT/SLV TO -5F TO 5F
CPV/LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
PICTURE BIG WATER VAPOR SHOWS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER LVL
MOISTURE DRAPED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS THIS
MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND S/W ENERGY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS MID LVL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD PVA
ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WL CONT TO IMPACT OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING...BEFORE DEPARTING OUR CWA BY 15Z.
THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED TIGHT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THERMAL
GRADIENT WITH LLVL CAA WL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT TEMP FCST TODAY.
PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -20C NEAR MSS AT 15Z TODAY TO -9C
AT VSF...INDICATING THE SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT ACRS OUR REGION. WL
MENTION HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS DACKS/SLV TO UPPER
20S LWR CT RIVER VALLEY WITH VALUES IN THE L20S ACRS THE CPV...BUT
FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. ALSO...WL CONT
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA TIMING...WHICH
WL BE BTWN 12Z-15Z FOR OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
LATEST RAP CONTS TO SHOW GOOD 850 TO 500MB RH...ALONG WITH SOME
FAVORABLE 850 TO 700MB FGEN LIFT AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT QPF/PROGGED
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RETURNS. STILL ANTICIPATING SOME VIRGA WITH
INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP...AS LARGE SPREAD CONTS BTWN SFC TEMP AND
DWPTS. SNOWFALL WL RANGE BTWN DUSTING AND 2 INCHES THRU
15Z....BEFORE DRYING AIR AND SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA
THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THRU TUESDAY WL BE THE MUCH BLW
NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED...AND JUST HOW COLD WE GET. STILL
NOTICING A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE BTWN THE COLDER MAV
AND WARMER MET NUMBERS...WITH THE ECE MOS SHOWING A NICE
COMPROMISE. WL USE A BLEND FOR TEMPS...WITH A TREND TWD THE
ECE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. FOR TONIGHT...SFC
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND WEAK LOW PRES TO OUR EAST WL RESULT IN BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS ACRS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN COLD WIND CHILL AND
KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED. THIS MIXING WL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT WITH LOWS EXPECTED BTWN -5F AND -10F
SLV/DACKS/NEK TO -5F TO +5F CPV/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. THESE
EXPECTED TEMPS COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNTS WL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -10F AND -20F ACRS THE DACKS...VERY
SIMILAR TO A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO. GIVEN MARGINALLY REACHING WIND
CHILL CRITERIA AND RECENT COLD WX...WL NOT BE ISSUING HIGHLIGHT
WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT WL MENTION IN HWO. ALSO...AS TEMPS DROP BLW
-5F IN THE COLDER VALLEYS...WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS AND
BECOME MORE TRRN DRIVEN. FOR MONDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLW CONTS
WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ONLY BTWN -18C AND -22C...WHICH ARE 2 TO
3 STD BLW NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY WL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS
MTNS/SLK/NEK TO LOWER TEENS CENTRAL VT/MPV TO MID TEENS CPV/LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS FROM LLVL INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HRS. SFC RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROP
WITH LOWS AROUND -20F EXPECTED ACRS THE DACKS/NEK TO -15F CENTRAL
VT VALLEYS/NASHVILLE TO -10F SLV TO 0 TO -5F CPV/UHI AREAS. WL
TREND TWD THE WARMER MET/ECE SOLUTIONS...GIVEN RECENT BETTER
PERFORMANCE WITH TEMPS AND SLIGHT WARMING IN LVLL THERMAL
PROFILES.
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SOUTH OF REGION AS MID LVL MOISTURE
AND 5H VORT IN THE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT APPROACH OUR CWA.
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY LLVLS WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT
HAVE NOTICED BOTH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF ACRS
OUR REGION. WL MENTION SOME VERY LOW CHC POPS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LVL MOISTURE AND 5H VORT...BUT THINKING BETTER CHCS ARRIVE WITH NEXT
SFC BOUNDARY ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...SOME WL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
MTNS TO NEAR 20F WARMER VALLEYS. STILL 10 TO 20 DEGREES BLW NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...WE CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH NEW BRUNSWICK UPPER LOW ROTATING WEAK REPLENISHMENT OF
COLD AIR FOR LATE WED/WED NGT. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THIS AS IT MOVES THRU...PRETTY MUCH COLDER THAN
NORMAL/DRY PATTERN PERSISTING.
SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING MID/LATE WEEK ACRS CONUS WITH OUR FA MAINLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM. WITH ZONAL FLOW AND MODERATING
TMPS FOR LATE WEEK INTO ERLY WEEKEND WITH NRN STREAM DELIVERING WEAK
COLD FRONT SAT NGT/SUN TIMEFRAME WITH SOME SHSN.
MEANWHILE... A SRN STREAM LOW DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO TRAVEL OFF SE
CONUS/MID ATLANTIC THU NGT/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT 6 HOURS...ENTERING CHAMPL VLY ARD 06Z AND REACHING LWR CT RVR
VLY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SHSN MAINLY ALG/BEHIND FRONT WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS. BACK EDGE ALREADY ENTERING ST LWRNC VLY
AT 06Z AND SHLD BE ACRS CHMPL VLY BY 12Z AND CT RVR VLY 15-17Z.
MAIN IDEA FOR SUNDAY IS FOR SHSN TO LET UP AT MOST OF THE TAFS
THRU SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH LIKELY TO PERSIST LONGER UNDER
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AT SLK AND MPV AS WELL AS AT RUT. I DO THINK
THAT CEILINGS ALSO GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TOWARD VFR AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...WITH EXCEPTIONS BEING MPV AND
SLK. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 10 KTS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LOCONTO/SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
336 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD TEMPERATURES. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS DROPPING
BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...PICTURE BIG WATER VAPOR SHOWS RIBBON OF
ENHANCED MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE DRAPED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS THIS MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND
S/W ENERGY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS MID LVL MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD PVA ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WL CONT TO
IMPACT OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
DEPARTING OUR CWA BY 15Z. THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED TIGHT
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THERMAL GRADIENT WITH LLVL CAA WL MAKE FOR
A DIFFICULT TEMP FCST TODAY. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -20C
NEAR MSS AT 15Z TODAY TO -9C AT VSF...INDICATING THE SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT ACRS OUR REGION. WL MENTION HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS/LOWER TEENS DACKS/SLV TO UPPER 20S LWR CT RIVER VALLEY WITH
VALUES IN THE L20S ACRS THE CPV...BUT FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS
WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. ALSO...WL CONT TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA TIMING...WHICH WL BE BTWN 12Z-15Z FOR
OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. LATEST RAP CONTS TO SHOW
GOOD 850 TO 500MB RH...ALONG WITH SOME FAVORABLE 850 TO 700MB FGEN
LIFT AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT QPF/PROGGED COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
RETURNS. STILL ANTICIPATING SOME VIRGA WITH INITIAL BAND OF
PRECIP...AS LARGE SPREAD CONTS BTWN SFC TEMP AND DWPTS. SNOWFALL
WL RANGE BTWN DUSTING AND 2 INCHES THRU 15Z....BEFORE DRYING AIR
AND SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THRU TUESDAY WL BE THE MUCH BLW
NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED...AND JUST HOW COLD WE GET. STILL
NOTICING A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE BTWN THE COLDER MAV
AND WARMER MET NUMBERS...WITH THE ECE MOS SHOWING A NICE
COMPROMISE. WL USE A BLEND FOR TEMPS...WITH A TREND TWD THE
ECE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. FOR TONIGHT...SFC
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND WEAK LOW PRES TO OUR EAST WL RESULT IN BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS ACRS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN COLD WIND CHILL AND
KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED. THIS MIXING WL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT WITH LOWS EXPECTED BTWN -5F AND -10F
SLV/DACKS/NEK TO -5F TO +5F CPV/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. THESE
EXPECTED TEMPS COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNTS WL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -10F AND -20F ACRS THE DACKS...VERY
SIMILAR TO A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO. GIVEN MARGINALLY REACHING WIND
CHILL CRITERIA AND RECENT COLD WX...WL NOT BE ISSUING HIGHLIGHT
WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT WL MENTION IN HWO. ALSO...AS TEMPS DROP BLW
-5F IN THE COLDER VALLEYS...WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS AND
BECOME MORE TRRN DRIVEN. FOR MONDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLW CONTS
WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ONLY BTWN -18C AND -22C...WHICH ARE 2 TO
3 STD BLW NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY WL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS
MTNS/SLK/NEK TO LOWER TEENS CENTRAL VT/MPV TO MID TEENS CPV/LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS FROM LLVL INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HRS. SFC RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROP
WITH LOWS AROUND -20F EXPECTED ACRS THE DACKS/NEK TO -15F CENTRAL
VT VALLEYS/NASHVILLE TO -10F SLV TO 0 TO -5F CPV/UHI AREAS. WL
TREND TWD THE WARMER MET/ECE SOLUTIONS...GIVEN RECENT BETTER
PERFORMANCE WITH TEMPS AND SLIGHT WARMING IN LVLL THERMAL
PROFILES.
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SOUTH OF REGION AS MID LVL MOISTURE
AND 5H VORT IN THE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT APPROACH OUR CWA.
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY LLVLS WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT
HAVE NOTICED BOTH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF ACRS
OUR REGION. WL MENTION SOME VERY LOW CHC POPS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LVL MOISTURE AND 5H VORT...BUT THINKING BETTER CHCS ARRIVE WITH NEXT
SFC BOUNDARY ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...SOME WL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
MTNS TO NEAR 20F WARMER VALLEYS. STILL 10 TO 20 DEGREES BLW NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...WE CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH NEW BRUNSWICK UPPER LOW ROTATING WEAK REPLENISHMENT OF
COLD AIR FOR LATE WED/WED NGT. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THIS AS IT MOVES THRU...PRETTY MUCH COLDER THAN
NORMAL/DRY PATTERN PERSISTING.
SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING MID/LATE WEEK ACRS CONUS WITH OUR FA MAINLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM. WITH ZONAL FLOW AND MODERATING
TMPS FOR LATE WEEK INTO ERLY WEEKEND WITH NRN STREAM DELIVERING WEAK
COLD FRONT SAT NGT/SUN TIMEFRAME WITH SOME SHSN.
MEANWHILE... A SRN STREAM LOW DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO TRAVEL OFF SE
CONUS/MID ATLANTIC THU NGT/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT 6 HOURS...ENTERING CHAMPL VLY ARD 06Z AND REACHING LWR CT RVR
VLY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SHSN MAINLY ALG/BEHIND FRONT WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS. BACK EDGE ALREADY ENTERING ST LWRNC VLY
AT 06Z AND SHLD BE ACRS CHMPL VLY BY 12Z AND CT RVR VLY 15-17Z.
MAIN IDEA FOR SUNDAY IS FOR SHSN TO LET UP AT MOST OF THE TAFS
THRU SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH LIKELY TO PERSIST LONGER UNDER
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AT SLK AND MPV AS WELL AS AT RUT. I DO THINK
THAT CEILINGS ALSO GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TOWARD VFR AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...WITH EXCEPTIONS BEING MPV AND
SLK. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 10 KTS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LOCONTO/SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1045 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFF OF THE
COAST. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM MON...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND ORGANIZED WINTRY MIX
HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AS OF 10 PM. HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF AROUND
A QUARTER INCH OF SLEET ACCUM ON AVERAGE WITH A TENTH OR LESS OF
ICE ACCRETION. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE 20S AREA WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OBX. THE WELL-BELOW FREEZING TEMPS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE ICY MESS ON ROADWAYS TO BE A HAZARD THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE TIME ON TUE...THUS WILL ALLOW WINTER WX ADVISORY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE 04/00Z
NAM THIS EVENING WOULD SUGGEST THAT WINTRY WEATHER MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING TUESDAY FOR THE CRYSTAL COAST AREA...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS MOISTURE
WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW AND CONFINED TO THE SUB 750MB LAYER WHERE
TEMPS ARE ABOVE -10C. THE 03/21Z SREF PTYPE POP PRODUCT FROM THE
SPC ALSO INDICATES CHANCES FOR -FZRA FOR THE CRYSTAL COAST VCNTY.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL RAISING OF POPS
FOR THE TUE PERIOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 445 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
HAS THE ARCTIC COLD WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA STRETCHING FROM NEAR
COLUMBIA SC TO FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIP HAS TRANSITIONED TO RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX FROM
KINSTON TO MANTEO AND NORTH...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOTED
ON A WEBCAM ALONG HWY 12 NEAR DUCK. BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THIS EVENING EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
FALL DURING THIS TIME...EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHICH COULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A 3-6C WARM NOSE PERSISTING THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING...EXPECT THE RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SLEET ALONG
WITH WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS THE SFC COLD POOL WILL QUICKLY
DEEPEN TO AROUND 3KFT. MOST OF THE HEAVIEST QPF FELL AS RAIN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO COLD AIR ARRIVAL. THERE WILL BE
LIMITED TIME FROM WHEN THE THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR SLEET TO WHEN
RAPID DRYING COMMENCES IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BRINGING A TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THEREFORE...SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SLEET AND
TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. THERMAL PROFILES FOR
AREAS FROM AROUND RODANTHE SOUTH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS SUGGEST
MAINLY RAIN FOR THESE AREAS...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SLEET
LATE. HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SLEET AND ICE. REFREEZING OF
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP
PATTERN...WITH SOME INLAND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HWY 64 BECOMING MORE
PATCHY IN NATURE WHILE NORTH OF HWY 64 REMAINS IN GREATER COVERAGE
OF WINTRY MIX. WITH BEST UPPER LIFT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIP APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUES MORNING.
STRONG CAA WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS WINDS GUST 35 TO 45 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PAMLICO
SOUND BUT WITH THE SHORT DURATION ONLY AROUND 6-9 HOURS NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH IS
WHAT IS INDICATED ON THE CERA WEBSITE.
TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND TONIGHT UNDER STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR
LINGERING DRIZZLE/RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TUES
WITH A STRONG INVERSION 1-2KFT FT ALOFT WITH NEAR SATURATION UP TO
8-9K FT. COLD MORNING TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S
BUT EXPECT TEMPS NEAR FREEZING FOR INLAND LOCATIONS BY MID MORNING.
WILL MAINTAIN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE REGION AS BLACK
ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADS CONTINUING TO BRING
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND HELP TO WRAP AROUND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
REMAIN SATURATED BELOW 8-9K FT TOMORROW SO EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
DURING THE DAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY WAS
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE UPPER 30S FOR INLAND SECTIONS TO MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NAM/ECMWF MODEL BLEND USED FOR
TUE NIGHT-WED...THEN ECMWF/GFS/WPC BLEND FOR THU-MONDAY. ACTIVE
SRN STREAM WITH COLD HIGH PRES WEDGED IN OVER AREA WILL PRODUCE COOL
AND WET PERIOD THROUGH END OF WEEK...THEN SOME MODERATION OVER
WEEKEND WITH RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT.
ANOTHER WEAK SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA FROM SW TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. MODELS INDICATE MAIN THREAT OF PCPN WILL BE ALONG COAST
CLOSER TO BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE BUT
CONTINUE TO CAP AT 50% DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. 30% CHANCE POPS FOR
COASTAL PLAINS AND WILL MENTION PSBL FREEZING RAIN THERE WITH MIN
TEMPS 30-32. NO ICING ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THREAT WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.
ADDITIONAL WEAK ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORM SW WED AFTN
AND WED NIGHT BUT MODELS INDICATE PCPN REMAINING MAINLY
OFFSHORE...THUS WILL CONTINUE ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR COAST. NO
P-TYPE ISSUES EXPECTED WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NEXT SYSTEM
WITH BOTH NOW INDICATING OPEN TROF EVOLVING INTO UPR LOW MOVING
ACROSS JUST S OF AREA THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC
LOW MOVING OUT OF GULFMEX AND DEEPENING JUST S OF AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE LATE FRI NIGHT...PRODUCING NOR`EASTER TYPE
CONDITIONS FOR ERN NC. GDNC INDICATES ATMOS WILL BE WARMER ENOUGH
FOR ALL RAIN...BUT PROLONGED NE WINDS MAY RESULT IN HIGH SURF AND
COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES...AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN. COASTAL SECTIONS COULD ALSO SEE PERIOD OF 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS
AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. CONTINUED HIGHEST POPS AT LIKELY
FOR ALL AREAS THU AFTN INTO FRIDAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING FROM W TO E
FRI NIGHT.
IN WAKE OF UPR LOW...RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SAT. WEAK NRN STREAM SHRT WV WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. RIDGING
AND DRY AGAIN FOR MONDAY.
COOL WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS 5-10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE
NIGHT-FRI...THEN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR SAT-MON.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...CIGS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE...AROUND 1K
FT... THOUGH OCNL DROPPING TO IFR ESP FOR KEWN AND KOAJ. SOUNDINGS
AND H925 MB COND PRES DEFICITS INDICATE CIGS REMAINING IN THE LOW
MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY TUE.
P-TYPE EXPECTED TO BE A MIX OF FZRA/PL/SN THROUGH FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING BEFORE TRANSISTIONING TO -FZDZ LATE. DZ OR -RA MAY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUE FOR KEWN AND KOAJ PERHAPS
SHIFTING NORTH AND WEST TO REMAINING TERMINALS LATE IN THE
DAY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.
GUSTY N WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY TUE MORNING THOUGH REMAIN 10
KT OR HIGHER DURING THE DAY TUE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL POOR FLYING WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COOL WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY KEEP SUB-VFR
CIGS OVER MOST OF AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN BE
REINFORCED FOR WDSPRD PCPN WITH COASTAL SFC LOW THU INTO FRIDAY
NIGY. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN PSBL LATE TUE NIGHT FOR KPGV AND
KISO. GUSTY NE WINDS PSBL FOR KOAJ AND KEWN THU INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR SAT WITH RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE STRONG
N/NE WINDS 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT AND SEAS ELEVATED 9-12 FT
FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. STRONG CAA IN NLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TUESDAY GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BECOME REPLACED WITH SCAS LATE TONIGHT FOR ELEVATED SEAS AND GUSTY
WINDS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS HAD A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON HIGH SEAS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS WHILE THE 12Z WAVEWATCH REMAINS 3-4 FT TOO
LOW...THUS USED LOCAL SWAN FOR SHORT TERM SEAS FORECAST. SEAS
10-13 FT WILL SUBSIDE 7-10 FT TUESDAY...WITH 4-7 FT FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUNDAY...VERY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT SAT. NE WINDS DIMINISH EARLY TUE NIGT...BUT
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY WED MORNING WITH WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF AT LEAST SCA CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY
FOR THU-FRI AS SLOW MOVING NOR`EASTER TYPE LOW MOVES ALONG JUST S
AND SE OF WATERS. PER LONG-TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...HIGH SURF...BEACH
EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IF LOW MOVES AS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
IN BETTER BUT STILL ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
CONTINUED TO USE NWPS THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN LEANED TO WW3 FOR
REST OF PERIOD. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT AND MAY DROP BELOW 6 FT
FOR A PERIOD...BUT WILL THEN BUILD AGAIN WED AND THU...WITH
PROLONGED PERIOD OF AT LEAST 8-11 FT SEAS FOR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SEAS SUBSIDING FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS LOW MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BUT 6 FT
HEIGHTS LIKELY LINGERING OUTER PORTIONS NRN WATERS THROUGH SAT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ029-
044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...TL/DAG/SK
SHORT TERM...SK/DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...TL/JBM
MARINE...TL/DAG/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
937 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH
MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SOME LIGHT FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY...CONTINUING
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
THE COAST. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE COAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...HOURLY UPDATES TO THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN
APPLIED AND UPLOADED...PARTICULARLY RELATED TO THE PROGRESSION OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE FA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS I WRITE...PCPN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE ILM CWA HAS BEEN IN A DECREASING AND
DIMINISHING TREND THRU-OUT THIS EVENING. THE ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ILM SC PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST
AND IS NO LONGER A THREAT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...THE FA WILL BE LOOKING AT CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING BASICALLY UNDERNEATH THE POST FRONTAL
STRATIFORM CLOUD DECK. I SAY THIS BECAUSE THE ARCTIC/COLD AIR
DEPTH TO REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW ACROSS THE FA DURING ITS SHORT TENOR
ACROSS THE ILM CWA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH
MINIMAL DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE ANY ORGANIZED PCPN...OTHER THEN THE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH MINIMAL IF ANY QPF.
WITH CONTINUED RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE WINTER WX ADVISORY
AREA...AND LATEST TEMPS FROM SFC OBS INDICATING PCPN FALLING AS
PATCHY ZR- OR ZL- WITH ICE PELLETS IE. SLEET...POSSIBLE WHERE THE
SFC BASED COLD AIR IS DEEPER IN DEPTH. OVERALL...WILL BACK OFF ON
PCPN COVERAGE BUT CONTINUE TO INDICATE WINTRY PCPN OVER LAND AREAS.
FOR THE CLIMATIC DAY...MARCH 3RD 2014...THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY ACROSS THE ILM CWA HAVE BEEN CONTINUALLY RE-SETTING TO A
LOWER TEMP EVER SINCE THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS
THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPS
FOR MARCH 3RD TO BE ESTABLISHED AT 1159 PM EST TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY STEAMING SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SOME 20 DEGREE SPREAD IN CURRENT TEMPS
BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN FORECAST/MODELED...A
FACT THAT MAY BE QUITE RELEVANT TO THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS
THE COLD AIR CONTINUES ITS CHARGE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO
SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN SLEET. THIS WILL HAPPEN
EARLIEST OVER NRN ZONES...IN THE 00Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME. TROUBLE
IS...THIS IS THE SAME TIME THAT THE MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT...AND RATHER EMPHATICALLY. THUS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OVER A GIVEN AREA APPEARS TO BE VERY SHORT IN
NATURE...IF AT ALL. OVERALL POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOWN TO TAPER OFF TO NON- MEASURABLE MORE QUICKLY.
WHAT FORECASTS DO SHOW WELL BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS IS A CONTINUED
SATURATION THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE
THERE BEING A DRY MID LAYER AND NO REAL LIFT TO SPEAK OF THIS
IMPLIES THAT THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO
TIME JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AREA-WIDE. OPERATIONAL MODELS DO INDICATE
AS SUCH AND IT HAS BEEN IN PREV FORECAST SO IT WILL BE MAINTAINED
HERE. BUT EVEN THE LIKELY OVERDONE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW NO
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND SREF PROBS OF 0.01 DROP OFF COMPLETELY BY
06Z. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AND GOES DRY BY 01Z...BARELY INTO THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR PTYPE ISSUES. THIS ALL PAIRED WITH THE RECENT WARM WEATHER WE
HAVE BEEN STRESSING THAT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE
ANTICIPATED. THIS HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO
HANDLE THE CURRENT WW ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR NRN ROW OF COUNTIES.
WAS QUITE TEMPTED TO DROP IT...BUT WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT THAT
DECISION ESP SINCE JUST A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF FZRA WOULD
NECESSITATE IT BEING IN EFFECT AND ONE WOULD HATE TO LOWER IT ONLY
TO HAVE IT SUBSEQUENTLY RE-ISSUED IN SUCH A SHORT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A HIGHLY UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
THROUGH MID- WEEK AS AN ARCTIC FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE WHILE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BANKED ALONG THE EAST
COAST BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE. ALOFT...SW FLOW
AHEAD DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WARM/MOIST FLOW
ABOVE THE SURFACE WEDGE...WHILE SOME ENHANCED CONFLUENCE WILL
ACTUALLY HELP REINFORCE ITS STRENGTH. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK
TUESDAY REVOLVES AROUND WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST...IF NOT
ALL...OF THE CWA...WHILE TEMPS BETWEEN 950MB AND 850MB WARM TO +2C
TO +4C. MOIST LOW LEVELS OF THE COLUMN PERSIST ALL OF TUESDAY...BUT
VERY DRY AIR EXISTS ABOVE 850MB...SUCH THAT PWATS REMAIN RATHER
LOW...AROUND ONE-HALF INCH. SO THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP...EVEN MORE DETERMINING
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING SEVERAL HOURS INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPS ONLY
VERY SLOWLY WARM...LIKELY MUCH SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS
AND REINFORCING WEDGE. STILL...WILL CARRY ZL FOR ALL ZONES INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING MAYBE A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTH.
AGAIN...AM CONCERNED ABOUT LACK OF FORCING (ISENTROPIC LIFT IS VERY
WEAK) AND THE DRY AIR ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP QPF AT 0 FOR NOW. THIS IS
A VERY BORDERLINE SITUATION HOWEVER...SINCE SIMPLY A TRACE OF ZR
REQUIRES A WW.Y...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A
FLUID SITUATION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR POTENTIAL
EXPANSION OF CURRENT WW.Y TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE CWA.
A MORE IMPRESSIVE AREA OF PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY OVERHEAD IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. FORECAST PROFILES
SATURATE CONSIDERABLY...AND MOS P12/P24 VALUES SKYROCKET TO THE HIGH
LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS
QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN THE GFS ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL NOT BE AS
AGGRESSIVE AS GFS IS SHOWING FOR QPF...BUT DEFINITELY BETTER RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WED THAN TUESDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY...TEMPS
WILL HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO JUST A COLD
RAIN IS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS LATE
WEDNESDAY...BUT RENEWED HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD
AND ON THURSDAY AS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. INHERITED POP SHOWS INCREASING TO HIGH-CHC FROM
SW TO NE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND FEEL THIS IS WARRANTED
SO WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL INCREASE TO THE WED NIGHT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS THE REINFORCING WEDGE
COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL PREVENT MUCH WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS WILL PEAK ONLY IN THE 30S MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW 40S POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. THIS IS 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE! LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS FOR
MINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME WARMING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...RISING INTO THE MID/UPR 40S...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID/UPR 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW SHOULD BE TAKING
SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY...SPREADING PLENTY OF THICK
CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH 12Z GFS WAS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF REGARDING THE DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. I HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80
PERCENT AND STORM-TOTAL QPF TO NEAR 1 INCH PENDING CONFIRMATION
FROM ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF MODEL RUNS.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ROLL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND PERIODS OF LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
RAIN TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE 12Z GFS LOOKED SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF WAS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AS IT BOMBS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE NC COAST. ROUGHLY 20 PERCENT OF
THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOWED A STRONG SURFACE LOW LIKE THE
12Z ECMWF SITTING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY...SO THIS IDEA WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ASSUMING WE GET SOME SUNSHINE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY HIGHS SHOULD REACH 53-57...COOLEST AT
THE COAST. (OF COURSE IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS RIGHT AND WE STAY CLOUDY/
RAINY/WINDY MOST OF THE DAY THESE HIGHS COULD BE 10 DEGREES TOO
OPTIMISTIC)
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.
HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY WILL SEEM WONDERFUL AFTER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS PLUS THE DAYTIME SEABREEZE WORKING
TOGETHER TO KEEP THE BEACHES CONSIDERABLY COOLER COMPARED TO INLAND
LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ALOFT WITH
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE 12Z GFS WAS MUCH
FARTHER EAST THAN EITHER OF TODAY`S ECWMF RUNS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CUTTING OFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GOING WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION MEANS WE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNLESS A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG A SOUTHWARD-MOVING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN
THE EAST COAST SUNDAY EVENING. THIS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE THE
RESULT OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD BRING LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...KCRE/KMYRKILM TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY IFR WITH STRONG
N-NNE WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS. AT KFLO/KLBT FLIGHT CONDITIONS
HAD IMPROVED TO BORDERLINE MVFR. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR
SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY AT
KFLO/KLBT WITH MAINLY LIQUID SHOWERS MIXED WITH SOME SLEET AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. BUT OVERALL A DECREASING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AROUND 05Z AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. BASED ON LATEST
CEILING TRENDS HAVE INDICATED MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING SOUTH AS THE
WEDGE OF COLDER AIR DEEPENS. BUT UNTIL PRECIPITATION ENDS THERE WILL
BE THE THREAT FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL TERMINALS.
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES HAVE INDICATED PERIODS OF VFR BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND ANY VFR MAY BE SHORT-LIVED. MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME MODELS ARE
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY 18Z AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS WEAK PVA CONFIDENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS LOW DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE PRECIPITATION/IFR WED AND THURS EVNG THROUGH FRI. VFR SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...BORDERLINE POST ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL N-NE
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL RULE THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT AND THUS SATISFY THE GALE
WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE TIGHTEN
SFC PG AND THE ARCTIC SURGE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SFC
PG LOOSENING SOME AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. N-NNE WINDS SUSTAINED AT
20 TO 30 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS...WILL DOMINATE THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 8
FT...WITH THE HIGHER SEAS OF THIS RANGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...AND THE OUTER WATERS OFF FROM THE
MOUTH OF WINYAH BAY. THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES
AT 6 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AN UNDERLYING AND IDENTIFIABLE 9 TO 10 SECOND
PERIOD 1 TO 3 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL WILL CO-EXIST WITH THIS
BUILDING WIND WAVE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA STILL IN THE PREFRONTAL
SWRLY FLOW SAVE FOR PERHAPS NRN PENDER WATERS. 41013 SEEING WINDS
CRANK UP INTO 25 TO 30 KT RANGE...THE LATTER GENERALLY GUSTS.
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS
THAN PREVIOUS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING GALE WARNING UP. EVEN PREVIOUS
SHIFT HAD MENTIONED THAT IT WAS A MARGINAL CASE. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GOING TO HAVE LITTLE SUPPORT FROM ALOFT AS
WINDS ALOFT STAY RATHER LACKLUSTER AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...BOTH OF WHICH WILL MEAN NO MIXING DOWN OF
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...WITH A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
ALONG THE COAST BEHIND IT. THIS WEDGE WILL CONTROL THE LOCAL WIND
TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A NE DIRECTION PERSISTENT
THROUGH MID-WEEK. SPEEDS WILL CHANGE WITH THE FLUCTUATING
GRADIENT...EASING FROM 15-25 KTS EARLY TUESDAY TO 10-15 KTS LATE
TUESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 15-20 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS
WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A 6-7 NE WIND WAVE...WITH AMPLITUDES
FALLING FROM 4-7 FT EARLY...TO 3-5 FT MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND
RISING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 3-6 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THURSDAY. VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG A LINE FROM
FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY MORNING CONSOLIDATING INTO A
SINGLE LOW ABOUT 100 MILES OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY
EVENING. THE LOW SHOULD STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT FOLLOWS THE GULF
STREAM NORTHEASTWARD. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST/NORTH WINDS AND SEAS.
MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE LOW FRIDAY: THE 12Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF TAKE THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH DIMINISHING IMPACTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT
HOWEVER...SLOWING THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ON
FRIDAY AS IT BOMBS THE STORM DOWN TO BELOW 1000 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE
WHILE OVER THE WARM WATER SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THIS SCENARIO
COULD BRING NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS BY SATURDAY THE
LOW SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND QUICKLY DIMINISHING
SEAS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
105-106.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
859 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH
MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SOME LIGHT FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY...CONTINUING
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
THE COAST. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE COAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...HOURLY UPDATES TO THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN
APPLIED AND UPLOADED...PARTICULARLY RELATED TO THE PROGRESSION OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE FA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS I WRITE...PCPN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE ILM CWA HAS BEEN IN A DECREASING AND
DIMINISHING TREND THRU-OUT THIS EVENING. THE ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ILM SC PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST
AND IS NO LONGER A THREAT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...THE FA WILL BE LOOKING AT CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING BASICALLY UNDERNEATH THE POST FRONTAL
STRATIFORM CLOUD DECK. I SAY THIS BECAUSE THE ARCTIC/COLD AIR
DEPTH TO REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW ACROSS THE FA DURING ITS SHORT TENOR
ACROSS THE ILM CWA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH
MINIMAL DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE ANY ORGANIZED PCPN...OTHER THEN THE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH MINIMAL IF ANY QPF.
WITH CONTINUED RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE WINTER WX ADVISORY
AREA...AND LATEST TEMPS FROM SFC OBS INDICATING PCPN FALLING AS
PATCHY ZR- OR ZL- WITH ICE PELLETS IE. SLEET...POSSIBLE WHERE THE
SFC BASED COLD AIR IS DEEPER IN DEPTH. OVERALL...WILL BACK OFF ON
PCPN COVERAGE BUT CONTINUE TO INDICATE WINTRY PCPN OVER LAND AREAS.
FOR THE CLIMATIC DAY...MARCH 3RD 2014...THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY ACROSS THE ILM CWA HAVE BEEN CONTINUALLY RE-SETTING TO A
LOWER TEMP EVER SINCE THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS
THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPS
FOR MARCH 3RD TO BE ESTABLISHED AT 1159 PM EST TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.......................................
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY STEAMING SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SOME 20 DEGREE SPREAD IN CURRENT TEMPS
BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN FORECAST/MODELED...A
FACT THAT MAY BE QUITE RELEVANT TO THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS
THE COLD AIR CONTINUES ITS CHARGE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO
SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN SLEET. THIS WILL HAPPEN
EARLIEST OVER NRN ZONES...IN THE 00Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME. TROUBLE
IS...THIS IS THE SAME TIME THAT THE MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT...AND RATHER EMPHATICALLY. THUS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OVER A GIVEN AREA APPEARS TO BE VERY SHORT IN
NATURE...IF AT ALL. OVERALL POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOWN TO TAPER OFF TO NON- MEASURABLE MORE QUICKLY.
WHAT FORECASTS DO SHOW WELL BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS IS A CONTINUED
SATURATION THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE
THERE BEING A DRY MID LAYER AND NO REAL LIFT TO SPEAK OF THIS
IMPLIES THAT THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO
TIME JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AREA-WIDE. OPERATIONAL MODELS DO INDICATE
AS SUCH AND IT HAS BEEN IN PREV FORECAST SO IT WILL BE MAINTAINED
HERE. BUT EVEN THE LIKELY OVERDONE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW NO
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND SREF PROBS OF 0.01 DROP OFF COMPLETELY BY
06Z. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AND GOES DRY BY 01Z...BARELY INTO THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR PTYPE ISSUES. THIS ALL PAIRED WITH THE RECENT WARM WEATHER WE
HAVE BEEN STRESSING THAT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE
ANTICIPATED. THIS HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO
HANDLE THE CURRENT WW ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR NRN ROW OF COUNTIES.
WAS QUITE TEMPTED TO DROP IT...BUT WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT THAT
DECISION ESP SINCE JUST A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF FZRA WOULD
NECESSITATE IT BEING IN EFFECT AND ONE WOULD HATE TO LOWER IT ONLY
TO HAVE IT SUBSEQUENTLY RE-ISSUED IN SUCH A SHORT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A HIGHLY UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
THROUGH MID- WEEK AS AN ARCTIC FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE WHILE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BANKED ALONG THE EAST
COAST BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE. ALOFT...SW FLOW
AHEAD DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WARM/MOIST FLOW
ABOVE THE SURFACE WEDGE...WHILE SOME ENHANCED CONFLUENCE WILL
ACTUALLY HELP REINFORCE ITS STRENGTH. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK
TUESDAY REVOLVES AROUND WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST...IF NOT
ALL...OF THE CWA...WHILE TEMPS BETWEEN 950MB AND 850MB WARM TO +2C
TO +4C. MOIST LOW LEVELS OF THE COLUMN PERSIST ALL OF TUESDAY...BUT
VERY DRY AIR EXISTS ABOVE 850MB...SUCH THAT PWATS REMAIN RATHER
LOW...AROUND ONE-HALF INCH. SO THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP...EVEN MORE DETERMINING
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING SEVERAL HOURS INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPS ONLY
VERY SLOWLY WARM...LIKELY MUCH SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS
AND REINFORCING WEDGE. STILL...WILL CARRY ZL FOR ALL ZONES INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING MAYBE A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTH.
AGAIN...AM CONCERNED ABOUT LACK OF FORCING (ISENTROPIC LIFT IS VERY
WEAK) AND THE DRY AIR ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP QPF AT 0 FOR NOW. THIS IS
A VERY BORDERLINE SITUATION HOWEVER...SINCE SIMPLY A TRACE OF ZR
REQUIRES A WW.Y...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A
FLUID SITUATION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR POTENTIAL
EXPANSION OF CURRENT WW.Y TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE CWA.
A MORE IMPRESSIVE AREA OF PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY OVERHEAD IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. FORECAST PROFILES
SATURATE CONSIDERABLY...AND MOS P12/P24 VALUES SKYROCKET TO THE HIGH
LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS
QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN THE GFS ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL NOT BE AS
AGGRESSIVE AS GFS IS SHOWING FOR QPF...BUT DEFINITELY BETTER RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WED THAN TUESDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY...TEMPS
WILL HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO JUST A COLD
RAIN IS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS LATE
WEDNESDAY...BUT RENEWED HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD
AND ON THURSDAY AS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. INHERITED POP SHOWS INCREASING TO HIGH-CHC FROM
SW TO NE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND FEEL THIS IS WARRANTED
SO WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL INCREASE TO THE WED NIGHT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS THE REINFORCING WEDGE
COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL PREVENT MUCH WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS WILL PEAK ONLY IN THE 30S MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW 40S POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. THIS IS 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE! LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS FOR
MINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME WARMING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...RISING INTO THE MID/UPR 40S...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID/UPR 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW SHOULD BE TAKING
SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY...SPREADING PLENTY OF THICK
CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH 12Z GFS WAS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF REGARDING THE DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. I HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80
PERCENT AND STORM-TOTAL QPF TO NEAR 1 INCH PENDING CONFIRMATION
FROM ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF MODEL RUNS.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ROLL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND PERIODS OF LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
RAIN TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE 12Z GFS LOOKED SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF WAS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AS IT BOMBS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE NC COAST. ROUGHLY 20 PERCENT OF
THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOWED A STRONG SURFACE LOW LIKE THE
12Z ECMWF SITTING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY...SO THIS IDEA WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ASSUMING WE GET SOME SUNSHINE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY HIGHS SHOULD REACH 53-57...COOLEST AT
THE COAST. (OF COURSE IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS RIGHT AND WE STAY CLOUDY/
RAINY/WINDY MOST OF THE DAY THESE HIGHS COULD BE 10 DEGREES TOO
OPTIMISTIC)
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.
HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY WILL SEEM WONDERFUL AFTER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS PLUS THE DAYTIME SEABREEZE WORKING
TOGETHER TO KEEP THE BEACHES CONSIDERABLY COOLER COMPARED TO INLAND
LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ALOFT WITH
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE 12Z GFS WAS MUCH
FARTHER EAST THAN EITHER OF TODAY`S ECWMF RUNS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CUTTING OFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GOING WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION MEANS WE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNLESS A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG A SOUTHWARD-MOVING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN
THE EAST COAST SUNDAY EVENING. THIS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE THE
RESULT OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD BRING LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...KCRE/KMYRKILM TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY IFR WITH STRONG
N-NNE WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS. AT KFLO/KLBT FLIGHT CONDITIONS
HAD IMPROVED TO BORDERLINE MVFR. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR
SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY AT
KFLO/KLBT WITH MAINLY LIQUID SHOWERS MIXED WITH SOME SLEET AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. BUT OVERALL A DECREASING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AROUND 05Z AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. BASED ON LATEST
CEILING TRENDS HAVE INDICATED MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING SOUTH AS THE
WEDGE OF COLDER AIR DEEPENS. BUT UNTIL PRECIPITATION ENDS THERE WILL
BE THE THREAT FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL TERMINALS.
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES HAVE INDICATED PERIODS OF VFR BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND ANY VFR MAY BE SHORT-LIVED. MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME MODELS ARE
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY 18Z AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS WEAK PVA CONFIDENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS LOW DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE PRECIPITATION/IFR WED AND THURS EVNG THROUGH FRI. VFR SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA STILL IN THE PREFRONTAL SWRLY
FLOW SAVE FOR PERHAPS NRN PENDER WATERS. 41013 SEEING WINDS CRANK UP
INTO 25 TO 30 KT RANGE...THE LATTER GENERALLY GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS THAN
PREVIOUS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE FREQUENT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING GALE WARNING UP. EVEN PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD
MENTIONED THAT IT WAS A MARGINAL CASE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS GOING TO HAVE LITTLE SUPPORT FROM ALOFT AS WINDS ALOFT STAY
RATHER LACKLUSTER AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...BOTH
OF WHICH WILL MEAN NO MIXING DOWN OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS USUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...WITH A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
ALONG THE COAST BEHIND IT. THIS WEDGE WILL CONTROL THE LOCAL WIND
TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A NE DIRECTION PERSISTENT
THROUGH MID-WEEK. SPEEDS WILL CHANGE WITH THE FLUCTUATING
GRADIENT...EASING FROM 15-25 KTS EARLY TUESDAY TO 10-15 KTS LATE
TUESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 15-20 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS
WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A 6-7 NE WIND WAVE...WITH AMPLITUDES
FALLING FROM 4-7 FT EARLY...TO 3-5 FT MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND
RISING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 3-6 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THURSDAY. VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG A LINE FROM
FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY MORNING CONSOLIDATING INTO A
SINGLE LOW ABOUT 100 MILES OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY
EVENING. THE LOW SHOULD STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT FOLLOWS THE GULF
STREAM NORTHEASTWARD. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST/NORTH WINDS AND SEAS.
MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE LOW FRIDAY: THE 12Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF TAKE THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH DIMINISHING IMPACTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT
HOWEVER...SLOWING THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ON
FRIDAY AS IT BOMBS THE STORM DOWN TO BELOW 1000 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE
WHILE OVER THE WARM WATER SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THIS SCENARIO
COULD BRING NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS BY SATURDAY THE
LOW SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND QUICKLY DIMINISHING
SEAS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
105-106.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH/MBB
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
707 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFF OF THE
COAST. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SNOW TO THE WINTRY MIX
ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. RADAR RETURNS HAVE INC
UPSTREAM AND SATURATION OF THE CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION IS INC PER
VWP...NEAR TERM SOUNDING ANAYLYSIS...AND IR SATELLITE ICE PRODUCT.
STILL EXPECTING NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION
AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW/SLEET. DEEP MOISTURE
STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY LATER THIS EVENING AND
EXPECTING TRANSITION TO PATCHY TO AREAS OF FZDZ LATE...BEST
CHANCES CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS OUTSIDE OF OUTER BANKS
HYDE...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 445 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
HAS THE ARCTIC COLD WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA STRETCHING FROM NEAR
COLUMBIA SC TO FRYING PAN SHOALS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIP HAS TRANSITIONED TO RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX FROM
KINSTON TO MANTEO AND NORTH...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOTED
ON A WEBCAM ALONG HWY 12 NEAR DUCK. BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THIS EVENING EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
FALL DURING THIS TIME...EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHICH COULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A 3-6C WARM NOSE PERSISTING THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING...EXPECT THE RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SLEET ALONG
WITH WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS THE SFC COLD POOL WILL QUICKLY
DEEPEN TO AROUND 3KFT. MOST OF THE HEAVIEST QPF FELL AS RAIN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO COLD AIR ARRIVAL. THERE WILL BE
LIMITED TIME FROM WHEN THE THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR SLEET TO WHEN
RAPID DRYING COMMENCES IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BRINGING A TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THEREFORE...SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SLEET AND
TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. THERMAL PROFILES FOR
AREAS FROM AROUND RODANTHE SOUTH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS SUGGEST
MAINLY RAIN FOR THESE AREAS...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SLEET
LATE. HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SLEET AND ICE. REFREEZING OF
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP
PATTERN...WITH SOME INLAND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HWY 64 BECOMING MORE
PATCHY IN NATURE WHILE NORTH OF HWY 64 REMAINS IN GREATER COVERAGE
OF WINTRY MIX. WITH BEST UPPER LIFT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIP APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUES MORNING.
STRONG CAA WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS WINDS GUST 35 TO 45 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PAMLICO
SOUND BUT WITH THE SHORT DURATION ONLY AROUND 6-9 HOURS NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH IS
WHAT IS INDICATED ON THE CERA WEBSITE.
TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND TONIGHT UNDER STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR
LINGERING DRIZZLE/RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TUES
WITH A STRONG INVERSION 1-2KFT FT ALOFT WITH NEAR SATURATION UP TO
8-9K FT. COLD MORNING TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S
BUT EXPECT TEMPS NEAR FREEZING FOR INLAND LOCATIONS BY MID MORNING.
WILL MAINTAIN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE REGION AS BLACK
ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADS CONTINUING TO BRING
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND HELP TO WRAP AROUND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
REMAIN SATURATED BELOW 8-9K FT TOMORROW SO EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
DURING THE DAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY WAS
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE UPPER 30S FOR INLAND SECTIONS TO MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NAM/ECMWF MODEL BLEND USED FOR
TUE NIGHT-WED...THEN ECMWF/GFS/WPC BLEND FOR THU-MONDAY. ACTIVE
SRN STREAM WITH COLD HIGH PRES WEDGED IN OVER AREA WILL PRODUCE COOL
AND WET PERIOD THROUGH END OF WEEK...THEN SOME MODERATION OVER
WEEKEND WITH RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT.
ANOTHER WEAK SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA FROM SW TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. MODELS INDICATE MAIN THREAT OF PCPN WILL BE ALONG COAST
CLOSER TO BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE BUT
CONTINUE TO CAP AT 50% DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. 30% CHANCE POPS FOR
COASTAL PLAINS AND WILL MENTION PSBL FREEZING RAIN THERE WITH MIN
TEMPS 30-32. NO ICING ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THREAT WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.
ADDITIONAL WEAK ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORM SW WED AFTN
AND WED NIGHT BUT MODELS INDICATE PCPN REMAINING MAINLY
OFFSHORE...THUS WILL CONTINUE ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR COAST. NO
P-TYPE ISSUES EXPECTED WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NEXT SYSTEM
WITH BOTH NOW INDICATING OPEN TROF EVOLVING INTO UPR LOW MOVING
ACROSS JUST S OF AREA THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC
LOW MOVING OUT OF GULFMEX AND DEEPENING JUST S OF AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE LATE FRI NIGHT...PRODUCING NOR`EASTER TYPE
CONDITIONS FOR ERN NC. GDNC INDICATES ATMOS WILL BE WARMER ENOUGH
FOR ALL RAIN...BUT PROLONGED NE WINDS MAY RESULT IN HIGH SURF AND
COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES...AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN. COASTAL SECTIONS COULD ALSO SEE PERIOD OF 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS
AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. CONTINUED HIGHEST POPS AT LIKELY
FOR ALL AREAS THU AFTN INTO FRIDAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING FROM W TO E
FRI NIGHT.
IN WAKE OF UPR LOW...RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SAT. WEAK NRN STREAM SHRT WV WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. RIDGING
AND DRY AGAIN FOR MONDAY.
COOL WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS 5-10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE
NIGHT-FRI...THEN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR SAT-MON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 7 PM MON...CIGS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE...AROUND 1K
FT... THOUGH OCNL DROPPING TO IFR ESP FOR KEWN AND KOAJ. SOUNDINGS
AND H925 MB COND PRES DEFICITS INDICATE CIGS REMAINING IN THE LOW
MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY TUE.
P-TYPE EXPECTED TO BE A MIX OF FZRA/PL/SN THROUGH FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING BEFORE TRANSISTIONING TO -FZDZ LATE. DZ MAY PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUE FOR KEWN AND KOAJ PERHAPS SHIFTING
NORTH AND WEST TO REMAINING TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.
GUSTY N WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BY TUE MORNING THOUGH REMAIN 10
KT OR HIGHER DURING THE DAY TUE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL POOR FLYING WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COOL WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY KEEP SUB-VFR
CIGS OVER MOST OF AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN BE
REINFORCED FOR WDSPRD PCPN WITH COASTAL SFC LOW THU INTO FRIDAY
NIGY. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN PSBL LATE TUE NIGHT FOR KPGV AND
KISO. GUSTY NE WINDS PSBL FOR KOAJ AND KEWN THU INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR SAT WITH RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 5 PM MONDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE STRONG
N/NE WINDS 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT AND SEAS ELEVATED 9-11 FT
FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. STRONG CAA IN NLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TUESDAY. GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BECOME REPLACED WITH SCAS LATE TONIGHT FOR ELEVATED SEAS AND GUSTY
WINDS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS HAD A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON HIGH SEAS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS WHILE THE 12Z WAVEWATCH REMAINS 3-4 FT TOO
LOW...THUS USED LOCAL SWAN FOR SHORT TERM SEAS FORECAST. SEAS
10-13 FT WILL SUBSIDE 7-10 FT TUESDAY...WITH 4-7 FT FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUNDAY...VERY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT SAT. NE WINDS DIMINISH EARLY TUE NIGT...BUT
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY WED MORNING WITH WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF AT LEAST SCA CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY
FOR THU-FRI AS SLOW MOVING NOR`EASTER TYPE LOW MOVES ALONG JUST S
AND SE OF WATERS. PER LONG-TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...HIGH SURF...BEACH
EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IF LOW MOVES AS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
IN BETTER BUT STILL ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
CONTINUED TO USE NWPS THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN LEANED TO WW3 FOR
REST OF PERIOD. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT AND MAY DROP BELOW 6 FT
FOR A PERIOD...BUT WILL THEN BUILD AGAIN WED AND THU...WITH
PROLONGED PERIOD OF AT LEAST 8-11 FT SEAS FOR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SEAS SUBSIDING FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS LOW MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BUT 6 FT
HEIGHTS LIKELY LINGERING OUTER PORTIONS NRN WATERS THROUGH SAT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ029-
044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...TL/DAG/SK
SHORT TERM...SK/DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...TL/JBM
MARINE...JBM/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
650 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH
MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SOME LIGHT FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY...CONTINUING
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
THE COAST. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE COAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY STEAMING SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SOME 20 DEGREE SPREAD IN CURRENT TEMPS
BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN FORECAST/MODELED...A
FACT THAT MAY BE QUITE RELEVANT TO THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS
THE COLD AIR CONTINUES ITS CHARGE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO
SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN SLEET. THIS WILL HAPPEN
EARLIEST OVER NRN ZONES...IN THE 00Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME. TROUBLE
IS...THIS IS THE SAME TIME THAT THE MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT...AND RATHER EMPHATICALLY. THUS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OVER A GIVEN AREA APPEARS TO BE VERY SHORT IN
NATURE...IF AT ALL. OVERALL POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND SHOWN TO TAPER OFF TO NON- MEASURABLE MORE QUICKLY.
WHAT FORECASTS DO SHOW WELL BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS IS A CONTINUED
SATURATION THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE
THERE BEING A DRY MID LAYER AND NO REAL LIFT TO SPEAK OF THIS
IMPLIES THAT THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO
TIME JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AREA-WIDE. OPERATIONAL MODELS DO INDICATE
AS SUCH AND IT HAS BEEN IN PREV FORECAST SO IT WILL BE MAINTAINED
HERE. BUT EVEN THE LIKELY OVERDONE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW NO
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND SREF PROBS OF 0.01 DROP OFF COMPLETELY BY
06Z. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AND GOES DRY BY 01Z...BARELY INTO THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR PTYPE ISSUES. THIS ALL PAIRED WITH THE RECENT WARM WEATHER WE
HAVE BEEN STRESSING THAT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE
ANTICIPATED. THIS HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO
HANDLE THE CURRENT WW ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR NRN ROW OF COUNTIES.
WAS QUITE TEMPTED TO DROP IT...BUT WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT THAT
DECISION ESP SINCE JUST A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF FZRA WOULD
NECESSITATE IT BEING IN EFFECT AND ONE WOULD HATE TO LOWER IT ONLY
TO HAVE IT SUBSEQUENTLY RE-ISSUED IN SUCH A SHORT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A HIGHLY UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
THROUGH MID- WEEK AS AN ARCTIC FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE WHILE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BANKED ALONG THE EAST
COAST BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE. ALOFT...SW FLOW
AHEAD DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WARM/MOIST FLOW
ABOVE THE SURFACE WEDGE...WHILE SOME ENHANCED CONFLUENCE WILL
ACTUALLY HELP REINFORCE ITS STRENGTH. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK
TUESDAY REVOLVES AROUND WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST...IF NOT
ALL...OF THE CWA...WHILE TEMPS BETWEEN 950MB AND 850MB WARM TO +2C
TO +4C. MOIST LOW LEVELS OF THE COLUMN PERSIST ALL OF TUESDAY...BUT
VERY DRY AIR EXISTS ABOVE 850MB...SUCH THAT PWATS REMAIN RATHER
LOW...AROUND ONE-HALF INCH. SO THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP...EVEN MORE DETERMINING
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING SEVERAL HOURS INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPS ONLY
VERY SLOWLY WARM...LIKELY MUCH SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS
AND REINFORCING WEDGE. STILL...WILL CARRY ZL FOR ALL ZONES INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING MAYBE A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTH.
AGAIN...AM CONCERNED ABOUT LACK OF FORCING (ISENTROPIC LIFT IS VERY
WEAK) AND THE DRY AIR ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP QPF AT 0 FOR NOW. THIS IS
A VERY BORDERLINE SITUATION HOWEVER...SINCE SIMPLY A TRACE OF ZR
REQUIRES A WW.Y...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A
FLUID SITUATION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR POTENTIAL
EXPANSION OF CURRENT WW.Y TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE CWA.
A MORE IMPRESSIVE AREA OF PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY OVERHEAD IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. FORECAST PROFILES
SATURATE CONSIDERABLY...AND MOS P12/P24 VALUES SKYROCKET TO THE HIGH
LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS
QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN THE GFS ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL NOT BE AS
AGGRESSIVE AS GFS IS SHOWING FOR QPF...BUT DEFINITELY BETTER RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WED THAN TUESDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY...TEMPS
WILL HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO JUST A COLD
RAIN IS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS LATE
WEDNESDAY...BUT RENEWED HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD
AND ON THURSDAY AS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. INHERITED POP SHOWS INCREASING TO HIGH-CHC FROM
SW TO NE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND FEEL THIS IS WARRANTED
SO WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL INCREASE TO THE WED NIGHT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS THE REINFORCING WEDGE
COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL PREVENT MUCH WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS WILL PEAK ONLY IN THE 30S MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW 40S POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. THIS IS 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE! LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS FOR
MINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME WARMING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...RISING INTO THE MID/UPR 40S...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID/UPR 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW SHOULD BE TAKING
SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY...SPREADING PLENTY OF THICK
CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH 12Z GFS WAS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF REGARDING THE DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. I HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80
PERCENT AND STORM-TOTAL QPF TO NEAR 1 INCH PENDING CONFIRMATION
FROM ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF MODEL RUNS.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ROLL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND PERIODS OF LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
RAIN TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE 12Z GFS LOOKED SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF WAS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AS IT BOMBS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE NC COAST. ROUGHLY 20 PERCENT OF
THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOWED A STRONG SURFACE LOW LIKE THE
12Z ECMWF SITTING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY...SO THIS IDEA WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ASSUMING WE GET SOME SUNSHINE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY HIGHS SHOULD REACH 53-57...COOLEST AT
THE COAST. (OF COURSE IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS RIGHT AND WE STAY CLOUDY/
RAINY/WINDY MOST OF THE DAY THESE HIGHS COULD BE 10 DEGREES TOO
OPTIMISTIC)
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.
HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY WILL SEEM WONDERFUL AFTER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS PLUS THE DAYTIME SEABREEZE WORKING
TOGETHER TO KEEP THE BEACHES CONSIDERABLY COOLER COMPARED TO INLAND
LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ALOFT WITH
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE 12Z GFS WAS MUCH
FARTHER EAST THAN EITHER OF TODAY`S ECWMF RUNS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CUTTING OFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GOING WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION MEANS WE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNLESS A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG A SOUTHWARD-MOVING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN
THE EAST COAST SUNDAY EVENING. THIS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE THE
RESULT OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD BRING LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...KCRE/KMYRKILM TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY IFR WITH STRONG
N-NNE WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS. AT KFLO/KLBT FLIGHT CONDITIONS
HAD IMPROVED TO BORDERLINE MVFR. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR
SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY AT
KFLO/KLBT WITH MAINLY LIQUID SHOWERS MIXED WITH SOME SLEET AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. BUT OVERALL A DECREASING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AROUND 05Z AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. BASED ON LATEST
CEILING TRENDS HAVE INDICATED MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING SOUTH AS THE
WEDGE OF COLDER AIR DEEPENS. BUT UNTIL PRECIPITATION ENDS THERE WILL
BE THE THREAT FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL TERMINALS.
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES HAVE INDICATED PERIODS OF VFR BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND ANY VFR MAY BE SHORT-LIVED. MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME MODELS ARE
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY 18Z AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS WEAK PVA CONFIDENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS LOW DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE PRECIPITATION/IFR WED AND THURS EVNG THROUGH FRI. VFR SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA STILL IN THE PREFRONTAL SWRLY
FLOW SAVE FOR PERHAPS NRN PENDER WATERS. 41013 SEEING WINDS CRANK UP
INTO 25 TO 30 KT RANGE...THE LATTER GENERALLY GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS THAN
PREVIOUS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE FREQUENT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING GALE WARNING UP. EVEN PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD
MENTIONED THAT IT WAS A MARGINAL CASE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS GOING TO HAVE LITTLE SUPPORT FROM ALOFT AS WINDS ALOFT STAY
RATHER LACKLUSTER AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...BOTH
OF WHICH WILL MEAN NO MIXING DOWN OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS USUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...WITH A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
ALONG THE COAST BEHIND IT. THIS WEDGE WILL CONTROL THE LOCAL WIND
TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A NE DIRECTION PERSISTENT
THROUGH MID-WEEK. SPEEDS WILL CHANGE WITH THE FLUCTUATING
GRADIENT...EASING FROM 15-25 KTS EARLY TUESDAY TO 10-15 KTS LATE
TUESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 15-20 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS
WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A 6-7 NE WIND WAVE...WITH AMPLITUDES
FALLING FROM 4-7 FT EARLY...TO 3-5 FT MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND
RISING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 3-6 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THURSDAY. VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG A LINE FROM
FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY MORNING CONSOLIDATING INTO A
SINGLE LOW ABOUT 100 MILES OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY
EVENING. THE LOW SHOULD STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT FOLLOWS THE GULF
STREAM NORTHEASTWARD. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST/NORTH WINDS AND SEAS.
MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE LOW FRIDAY: THE 12Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF TAKE THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH DIMINISHING IMPACTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT
HOWEVER...SLOWING THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ON
FRIDAY AS IT BOMBS THE STORM DOWN TO BELOW 1000 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE
WHILE OVER THE WARM WATER SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THIS SCENARIO
COULD BRING NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS BY SATURDAY THE
LOW SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND QUICKLY DIMINISHING
SEAS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
105-106.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...TRA/JDW/MBB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1257 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEARED MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO FROM THE ADVISORY AS REGIONAL RADARS
SHOW SNOW QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS VERY
DRY AIR SPREADS INTO THE LOW LEVELS. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO EXPAND NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5
DEGREES AT TOL/PCW/DFI. THE QUESTION FOR THE AFTERNOON IS HOW
EFFECTIVE WILL THE DRY AIR BE AT ENDING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH
AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THINK
THE SNOW WILL HOLD ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT THE NORTHWARD PUSH
OF DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT EVENTUALLY AS EVEN THE FLOW THROUGH 850MB
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL WAVE CAN BE SEEN TRAVERSING
LAKE ERIE ON WATER VAPOR AND THE RUC ADVERTISES MUCH DRIER AIR
ARRIVING BY 20Z IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. THE ADVISORY FOR THE
CLEVELAND AREA WILL LIKELY EXPIRE AS PLANNED BUT THE ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS MAY BE CANCELLED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT
SAID...MUCH MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION CAN BE SEEN OVER CENTRAL
OHIO AND THIS MAY STILL CLIP KNOX/HOLMES COUNTIES...BOOSTING
SNOWFALL TOTALS. THAT IS ABOUT THE ONLY CHANCE OF RECEIVING MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH FROM THIS STORM. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
STEADY OR FALL TODAY AND WIND CHILL VALUES RANGE FROM 5 TO -5 MOST
AREAS.
ORIGINAL...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS
THE AREA. SNOW CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE TODAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE DECREASING FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED
THE NAM TODAY WHICH SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS
THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
LIFT WILL ALSO BE HELPED BY INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
WITH OHIO BEING IN THE RT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH WHILE TO THE NORTH WILL
DECREASE POPS SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMS LOOK TO BE WILL
BE BEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WITH 2-4 OR 3-5 A
REASONABLE ACCUM FOR THE DAY. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL TAPER POPS TO CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY BY MIDNIGHT WITH
FURTHER DRYING BY 12Z MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW COMES TUESDAY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS MOISTENS WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE ALREADY IN PLACE. THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT. BEST FORCING HOWEVER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AHEAD OF A RATHER SHARP UPPER TROF AS WELL AS NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXPECTED WARM UP LATE NEXT WEEK WILL ONLY BE SUBTLE AT BEST AND
BRIEF. FRI MAY BE THE ONLY DAY WHERE TEMPS EVEN RISE AROUND THE
NORMAL POINT...JUST AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THRU THE
AREA.
STILL NOT SURE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WON`T
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ON THU SO WILL PUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WILL LEAVE THU NIGHT DRY DUE
TO BETTER RIDGING.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT SHOULD
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A GOOD THREAT FOR RAIN THAT WILL PROBABLY
CHANGE TO SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN SNOW AREA HAS JUST ABOUT MOVED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED. AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTH BY THIS EVENING THEY WILL
BECOME MORE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED AND WILL GET AN INFLUENCE
FROM LAKE HURON. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SO EXPECTING SOME MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR CLE AND CAK AND ONLY EXPECTING A DUSTING AS
THE AIRMASS IS DRYING OUT. FOR ERI AND YNG NOT EXPECTING ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
THE CLOUDS FORECAST IS TOUGH FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME BRIEF
VFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE NORTHERLY
FLOW TONIGHT LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED MVFR CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT AT TOL AND FDY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NE TO N WINDS MAY BLOW 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
LAKE. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE TUE THEN NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TUE NIGHT INTO WED THEN
DIMINISH A LITTLE AND TURN EAST ON THU THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE WORKING SE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
FRI AND SHOULD START TO SHIFT THE VARIABLE WINDS TO NW.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ010>013-020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ021>023-028>033-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1107 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEARED MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO FROM THE ADVISORY AS REGIONAL RADARS
SHOW SNOW QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS VERY
DRY AIR SPREADS INTO THE LOW LEVELS. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO EXPAND NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5
DEGREES AT TOL/PCW/DFI. THE QUESTION FOR THE AFTERNOON IS HOW
EFFECTIVE WILL THE DRY AIR BE AT ENDING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH
AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THINK
THE SNOW WILL HOLD ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT THE NORTHWARD PUSH
OF DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT EVENTUALLY AS EVEN THE FLOW THROUGH 850MB
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL WAVE CAN BE SEEN TRAVERSING
LAKE ERIE ON WATER VAPOR AND THE RUC ADVERTISES MUCH DRIER AIR
ARRIVING BY 20Z IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. THE ADVISORY FOR THE
CLEVELAND AREA WILL LIKELY EXPIRE AS PLANNED BUT THE ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS MAY BE CANCELLED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT
SAID...MUCH MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION CAN BE SEEN OVER CENTRAL
OHIO AND THIS MAY STILL CLIP KNOX/HOLMES COUNTIES...BOOSTING
SNOWFALL TOTALS. THAT IS ABOUT THE ONLY CHANCE OF RECEIVING MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH FROM THIS STORM. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
STEADY OR FALL TODAY AND WIND CHILL VALUES RANGE FROM 5 TO -5 MOST
AREAS.
ORIGINAL...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS
THE AREA. SNOW CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE TODAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE DECREASING FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED
THE NAM TODAY WHICH SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS
THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
LIFT WILL ALSO BE HELPED BY INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
WITH OHIO BEING IN THE RT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH WHILE TO THE NORTH WILL
DECREASE POPS SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMS LOOK TO BE WILL
BE BEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WITH 2-4 OR 3-5 A
REASONABLE ACCUM FOR THE DAY. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL TAPER POPS TO CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY BY MIDNIGHT WITH
FURTHER DRYING BY 12Z MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW COMES TUESDAY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS MOISTENS WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE ALREADY IN PLACE. THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT. BEST FORCING HOWEVER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AHEAD OF A RATHER SHARP UPPER TROF AS WELL AS NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXPECTED WARM UP LATE NEXT WEEK WILL ONLY BE SUBTLE AT BEST AND
BRIEF. FRI MAY BE THE ONLY DAY WHERE TEMPS EVEN RISE AROUND THE
NORMAL POINT...JUST AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THRU THE
AREA.
STILL NOT SURE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WON`T
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ON THU SO WILL PUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WILL LEAVE THU NIGHT DRY DUE
TO BETTER RIDGING.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT SHOULD
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A GOOD THREAT FOR RAIN THAT WILL PROBABLY
CHANGE TO SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL SAG SOUTH TO BE AFFECTING
JUST THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY 22Z THEN SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SSE
OUT OF FDY...MFD...CAK AND YNG THRU 06Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A FEW
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHSN MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AROUND CLE AND MAYBE OTHER
PARTS OF THE SNOWBELT AS NORTH WINDS BRING MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE
HURON INTO THE AREA.
MAINLY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT BUT SHOULD STAY UNDER
15 KNOTS.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NE TO N WINDS MAY BLOW 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
LAKE. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE TUE THEN NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TUE NIGHT INTO WED THEN
DIMINISH A LITTLE AND TURN EAST ON THU THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE WORKING SE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
FRI AND SHOULD START TO SHIFT THE VARIABLE WINDS TO NW.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ010>013-020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ021>023-028>033-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
448 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY I`VE SEEN MORE DIVERSE AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
THAN IN ANY EIGHT HOUR SHIFT OVER MY ENTIRE 40 YEAR CAREER.
THICK COLD ARCTIC AIR OF 5 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET HAS PRODUCED
SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. LIFT ABOVE A DEEP WARM LAYER
ALOFT HAS PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MANY COMBINATIONS OF
SLEET SNOW RAIN FREEZING RAIN HAIL.
DEEPENING COLD LAYER HAS ABOUT SHUT-OUT FREEZING RAIN RISK
SO ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO A WINTER STORM
HEADLINE. ALL WARNINGS CONSOLIDATED TO END AT 4 AM...WITH
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
LAST SNOW SLEET BURST CURRENTLY NOW WEST OF I-35 WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND LATE
EVENING TO 4 AM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HRRR SHORT RANGE MODEL
WHICH HAS BEEN GOOD...CLEARS PRECIP FROM CARROLL COUNTY AR
JUST BEFORE 4 AM.
BITTER COLD AND WINDY MONDAY REQUIRES WIND CHILL HEADLINE.
HIGHS TEMPS MONDAY NEAR RECORD LOW/MAXIMUM.
NEXT WAVE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
NEXT WEEKEND.
GW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 3 19 14 39 / 80 0 0 0
FSM 15 28 17 42 / 90 10 0 0
MLC 9 23 15 42 / 80 0 0 0
BVO 3 19 9 37 / 90 0 0 0
FYV 6 24 11 40 / 90 10 0 0
BYV 3 24 11 38 / 90 10 0 0
MKO 7 20 13 40 / 90 0 0 0
MIO 0 18 10 36 / 90 0 0 0
F10 7 20 14 41 / 80 0 0 0
HHW 13 28 21 45 / 80 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
245 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
A MULTI-FACETED WINTER WEATHER MESS CONTINUES TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. WV SATELLITE SHOWS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DEEPENING ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WITH
WELL PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ENTERING WRN OK...AND AREA OF
DEFORMATION/BANDED SNOW OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. AHEAD OF THIS
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR...SCT SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTAINING HAIL CONTINUE. INSTABILITY REMAINS
TOO MARGINAL FOR SEVERE HAIL...BUT SEVERAL REPORTS OF DIMES AND
NICKELS HAVE COME IN. EXPECT THE LIKLIHOOD OF HAIL TO WANE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT HEAVY SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOOMERS
THAT HAPPEN TO AFFECT YOUR LOCATION. IN FACT...SLEETFALL RATES OF
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE PROBABLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTIVE CORES. HOWEVER...THESE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN...AND EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SLEET AND SNOW TO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RES HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
PERHAPS THE HEAVIEST SLEET WILL FALL OVER EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OR GREATER SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA WARRANTED A WINTER STORM WARNING. AREAS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
HAVE CERTAINLY SEEN SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT WSW CRITERIA WILL BE MET ON A LARGE SCALE...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OVER
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNING IN THESE AREAS...THOUGH SEVERAL MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIER SNOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH...AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.
THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CARRY INTO THE
WEE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. ONCE WE GET TO SUNRISE TOMORROW...THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.
SINGLE DIGIT TO NEAR ZERO LOWS ARE FORECAST OVER A GOOD PART OF
OKLAHOMA...WITH LOWER TEENS OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. THIS COMBINED WITH NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FROM NEAR ZERO SOUTH TO -15 DEGREES NORTH. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO
THE 20S AND 30S TOMORROW...SO DON`T EXPECT A LOT OF MELTING. ROAD
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS RIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ONCE WE GET THROUGH TOMORROW...THINGS ARE LOOKING UP. YES...IT
WILL STILL BE CHILLY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS POSITIVE
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO. MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIP
THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS SHOULD MAINLY FALL IN LIQUID FORM...THOUGH
PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY GET A RAIN/SNOW MIX. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM EACH DAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR JUST IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WELCOME TO WINTER IN MARCH
EVERYONE!
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 7 24 17 46 / 70 0 10 10
HOBART OK 5 27 18 49 / 50 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 12 32 22 50 / 10 0 10 10
GAGE OK -2 25 19 48 / 70 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 3 20 13 41 / 90 0 10 0
DURANT OK 13 28 23 46 / 40 0 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ013-
014-016>030-033>040-044-045.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR OKZ004>036-038-040-042.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ004>012-
015-031-032-041>043-046>048-050>052.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
23/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1137 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ARCTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OK INTO FAR NW
ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH TERRAIN OVER
NE OK AND SE OK SLOWING THE PROGRESS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY
QUICK TRANSITION FROM FZRA TO SLEET ACROSS NE OK...MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF FZRA LIKELY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY IN FSM
AREA SUNDAY. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST...WITH PRECIP ALL SLEET AND SOME SNOW BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BENEATH INTENSE WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE SHALLOW COLD
DOME. SLICKS SPOTS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS A RESULT.
LATEST DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF LIGHT
PRECIP AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES ATOP ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
ADDITIONALLY...A ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE
IN THE HRRR SOLUTIONS THE UPDATE WILL INCLUDE A ZONE OF HIGHER
THUNDER CHANCES...WHICH WILL ALSO CORRESPOND TO LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIP AMOUNTS. PRECIP TYPE FORECASTS WERE LEFT LARGELY IN PLACE
AS WE AWAIT ADDITIONAL DATA...HOWEVER THE TREND SEEMS TO BE TOWARD
A COLDER BOUNDARY TEMP WHICH WOULD FAVOR A QUICKER TRANSITION
TOWARD SLEET. THIS WILL BE FURTHER REVIEWED AS DATA BECOME
AVAILABLE. THE UPDATE ALSO ADJUSTED FOR THE OBSERVED TEMP TRENDS
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE POST FRONTAL COOLING. DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NE OK LATE TONIGHT...AND MOST
LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...ICE STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ053-OKZ076.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ065-
OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-
OKZ074-OKZ075.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ020-
ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1214 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A MOIST COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
WITH A SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...ACCOUNTING FOR LOW CLOUDS CROSSING THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE UPDATED USING A 3 TO 1 BLEND OF THE NAM AND
ADJMAV...LEANING ON THE FORMER TO CAPTURE GREATER WINDS AND GUSTS IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS.
AS OF 1040 PM...0Z NAM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED THE FIELD OF LOW
SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE MODELS AGREES WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST HOURLY TEMP...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS.
AS OF 7 PM...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE TONIGHT...EXPANDING NW ACROSS
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WAS EXTREMELY DRY AND THE UPPER LAYER OF SOIL IS DRY.
AT 6PM...THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OBS HAD DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AROUND 20
DEGREES. CONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...AS
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE. I DO EXPECT SOME FOG...I WILL INDICATE
6-5SM FOG WITH SCT010 BETWEEN 10-13Z. FOR THE UPDATE...I WILL ADJUST
FOG PLACEMENT AND TIMING AND WILL ADJUST HOURLY TEMP/DWPT.
AS OF 230 PM...THERE WILL BE A FLAT UPR RIDGE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THRU THE NEAR TERM...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF BEGINS TO
ENTER THE SRN PLAINS. SFC HIGH PRES WILL LINGER JUST OFF THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SWLY LLVL RETURN FLOW ATOP
THE CWFA TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY. FCST SNDGS INDICATE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH INCREASING BL MOISTURE WITHIN THE SW FLOW. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HINTS AT SOME FOG OR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY ACRS THE PIEDMONT. MOST OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE RAP HINTING AS
WELL. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...HIGHLIGHTING THE
AREA WHERE THE NAM AS NEAR ZERO SFC CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON DENSE FOG IS STILL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE KEPT
ABOVE NORMAL WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT SAGGING SEWD
ACRS THE OH VLY...BUT PRECIP HOLDING OFF TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE SFC
BNDRY. SO WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTN...BUT OTHERWISE IT SHUD BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH
HIGHS ABOUT 8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SAT...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES SWIFTLY EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. THE WAVE WILL INTERACT
WITH A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE OH AND MID MS RIVER
VALLEYS AND GENERATE SFC WAVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL
ZONE AND THE COLD SIDE...KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY SLOWLY BUILDING POPS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
GET SHUTTLED EWD. FORCING FEATURES COME TOGETHER BEST ACROSS THE
AREA MON MORNING IN THE FORM OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
DIVERGENCE...PASSING DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS THE SFC WAVE SWEEPS IN ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND POSSIBLY WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING
THROUGH LATE DAY NW OF THE SFC WAVE AFTER THE BOUNDARY SLIPS THROUGH
THE AREA. THIS WILL WARRANT LIKELY TO CAT POPS THROUGHOUT MON
MORNING.
EVEN WITH THE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT...MUCAPES WILL BE LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO 100 J/KG OR LESS...WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES 5.5 TO
6 DEG C/KM...AND WITH WESTERLY SHEAR PROFILES. THIS WILL GREATLY
LIMIT THE TSTM POTENTIAL AND ONLY SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE
WARM SECTOR. COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY SURGE INTO THE NRN TIER MON
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE W AND A BACKDOOR
FRONT WRAPS DOWN FROM THE N. THE RACE WILL THEN BE ON BETWEEN THE
MOISTURE EXITING SE AND COLDER PROFILES ARRIVING FROM THE N TO
SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX. STILL FEEL THAT ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP
WOULD BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORED IN THIS SETUP. IN ADDITION...
PROFILES APPEAR TO DRY OUT FROM THE TOP DOWN IN THE COLDER NRN
TIER...LIKELY ENDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE NUCLEATION AND ANY
ACCUMULATING FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION. BRIEF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD STILL OCCUR OVER THE NW NC
PIEDMONT LATE MON...WITH BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MTNS NEAR THE NC BORDER INTO EARLY EVENING.
NO HAZARD HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
H5 FLOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME ZONAL THROUGH TUE...WITH 1032 MB HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER TO THE N FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS...MAY CAP TUE MAX
TEMPS AT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...TRICKY MEDIUM RANGE FCST CONTINUES AS
GENERAL OVERALL AGREEMENT EXISTS...BUT SIGNIFICANT DETAIL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN AS WELL. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT SHOWING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING TO THE WRN GULF COAST BY WED NITE THEN
CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW ON THU. THIS LOW THEN MOVES EAST ALONG THE
GULF COAST THU NITE AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRI AND SAT. THE
CANADIAN MODEL IS COMING AROUND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH SOME MINOR
PLACEMENT AND TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH A
MUCH FASTER AND OPEN WAVE. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN AS CONSISTENT WITH
THE STRENGTH...POSITION OR TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN IS DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NOT AS DEEP OR SLOW
AS THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN. WPC IS TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEPER AND
SLOWER SCENARIO...SO HAVE GONE THIS DIRECTION AS WELL.
WED WILL BE A COOL DRY DAY WITH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN A CLASSICAL
CAD PATTERN. THE GULF LOW SPINS UP ON THU AND MOVES EAST SPREADING
MOISTURE AND PRECIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE DEVELOPING CAD. THE GFS
WITH ITS WEAKER AND FASTER LOW...KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-85. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
WETTER. THEREFORE...SPREAD CHC POP IN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA WED NITE
AND THE ENTIRE CWFA THU. PARTIAL THICKNESSES...H85 TEMPS...AND SFC
TEMPS SUGGEST SNOW AND SLEET WOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85
AS THE PRECIP MOVES IN WED NITE...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN SOUTH. AS
TEMPS WARM THRU THE DAY THU...PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN IN ALL BUT THE
DEEPEST PART OF THE CAD DOME...NEAR AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE
LOW MOVES UP THE SERN COAST THU NITE AND FRI...PRECIP REMAINS ACROSS
THE CWFA. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS REMAIN COOL OVER THE MTNS
WITH SFC TEMPS FALLING ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR TOWARD DAYBREAK. A
STRONG WARM NOSE DEVELOPS WITH CONTINUING WWA. THIS CHANGES ANY
WINTRY PRECIP IN THOSE COLDER AREAS TO FREEZING RAIN. PRECIP TAPERS
OFF ACROSS THE WRN CWFA FRI AFTERNOON AND ALL AREAS FRI EVENING AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TAKING MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH
IT. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FRI AS THE WWA CONTINUES AND
REMAINS RAIN UNTIL ENDING. RIGHT NOW...THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE THICKNESS AND TEMP PATTERN...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A
LITTLE BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT A PRECIP EVENT WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW
AND SFC GULF LOW WILL DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE FOR SNOW/SLEET
LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OVER
THE NRN MTNS. ALSO HAVE TRACE ICE ACCRETION NORTH OF I-85 AND LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER THE MTNS...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
NRN MTNS. AGAIN...THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN...SO STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FOG POTENTIAL...BUT DEW
POINT DEPRESSION ARE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT...INCLUDING
THE KCLT AREA...AND MVFR VSBY WILL BE CARRIED THERE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
LOW VFR CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK....BUT NOT SUFFICIENTLY
FOR A CIG UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. A LIGHT S WIND WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING AFTER DAWN AND BECOMING GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...VFR AT FOOTHILLS SITES...BUT KAVL MAY SEE SOME MVFR FOG
AROUND DAYBREAK...AS THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION THERE IS ONLY 7
DEGREES AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SSW WINDS SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT...
PERHAPS GOING CALM AT SOME LOCATIONS. LOW VFR CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
TOWARD DAWN AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AND APPROACHING SYSTEM...
BUT LOW VFR CIGS SHOULD WAIT UNTIL AFTERNOON AT KAVL...AND AFTER
SUNSET AT FOOTHILL SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
556 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
TO OVERCOME AND THUS WILL KEEP OUT ANY POPS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME FLURRIES THAT MAKE IT THROUGH THE DRY AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
OTHER QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER WE SEE ANY LOW STRATUS FORM.
NAM..GFS...HRRR AND RAP ALL SHOW A PRETTY STRONG SIGNAL...AS LOW
LEVEL MOIST AIR IS ADVECTED NORTH INTO OUR COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER
NOTHING OUT THERE RIGHT NOW...AND THE GEM AND ECMWF SEEM A LITTLE
LESS AGGRESSIVE ON THE STRATUS. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. INITIALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY AS
THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HELP KEEP THINGS MIXED.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EXIT LATER
TONIGHT. IF STRATUS IS NOT AROUND OR EXITS...COULD SEE SOME SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES BY MORNING. HOWEVER IF STRATUS STICKS AROUND READINGS
WOULD BE STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO. FOR NOW
WILL GO THE MIDDLE GROUND...SINCE CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON WHICH
SOLUTION WILL VERIFY.
TOMORROW WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH THE SLOW WARMING TREND
CONTINUING...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND AN EASTERLY WIND
AROUND 10 MPH. ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRETTY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL BEING A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE AN AREA OF SNOW AFTER WE
SATURATE THE INITIALLY DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS. CURRENT THOUGHT IS
THAT WE WILL SEE AN AREA OF SNOW FORM ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE
WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BEST CHANCE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO
SPENCER IOWA LINE...CLOSER TO THE BETTER PV ADVECTION AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTERACTION. 12Z NAM SEEMED TOO SLOW AND THUS WAS NOT
USED...WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS...GEM AND ECMWF SEEMING LIKE THE WAY
TO GO. GIVEN THE PERIOD OF PRETTY GOOD OMEGA...THE HIGHER QPF OF THE
HI RES MODELS AND GEM DOES SEEM POSSIBLE. SO DID TREND QPF UP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE 18Z NAM HAS ACTUALLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE
OTHER MODELS...AND NOW MATCHES THE FORECAST PRETTY WELL. THINKING WE
SEE AN AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES SOMEWHERE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
CURRENT BEST GUESS BEING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
COUNTIES...WITH GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ELSEWHERE. MODELS TODAY HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST WITH QPF INTO THE AREA OF BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL FALL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...ALLOWING THE LIGHT
SNOWFALL LINGERING ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF TO COME TO AN END BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...KEEPING PREVENTING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING MUCH FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. LIGHT WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PUT A CAP ON THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH THE 20S WITH SOME LOW 30S IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FURTHER BOLSTERING
READINGS DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT STRATUS ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN TIMING THAN THE GEM AND
GFS...BUT ALL MODELS DO TRACK THE BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEEING ANY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF...BUT EVEN HERE MID
LEVELS REMAIN PRETTY DRY. WILL LEAVE ONLY MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX WITH FAIRLY MILD MID/LOW LEVELS AND SUB FREEZING AT THE SURFACE.
THE WARMING TREND RESUMES SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING
BUILDING BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOLLOWED BY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW
TO MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...THOUGH APPEARS AS THOUGH ATMOSPHERE WILL SATURATE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. COULD SEE
VISIBILITIES FALL AT BOTH KHON AND KFSD AFTER 18Z...THOUGH APPEARS
THE DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT AT KSUX. FOCUS OF SNOW AT THIS POINT
APPEARS NORTH AND EAST OF KFSD AND KHON...BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER
VISBYS SOME IN 06Z ISSUANCE IF WAVE COMES IN FURTHER SOUTH.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
413 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. FRONT
SHOULD ENTER THE AREA IN AN HOUR OR TWO AND MOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS FAR OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...WITH NO THUNDER
REPORTED YET. THINK LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ALONG OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TUMBLE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY BE ABOUT 40 TO 45 DEGREES COOLER MONDAY MORNING
COMPARED TO RIGHT NOW. IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER TEMPS...STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE EXISTS BETWEEN MAV/MET WIND SPEEDS WITH
THE MAV SUGGESTING WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. TEMPERED WIND SPEEDS
A BIT BUT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NONETHELESS WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY COULD BECOME NECESSARY IF
SPEEDS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AN ISSUE THOUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION
WHERE WC VALUES WILL FALL BETWEEN 20 AND 25 AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SOMETHING ALSO
WORTH MONITORING WILL BE THE PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE HRRR HAS DEVELOPED PRECIP OVER MUCH OF
SOUTH TEXAS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT HAVE KEPT
SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
40S ON MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RAMP BACK UP ON MONDAY NIGHT AS
850MB FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN BECOMES
ESTABLISHED.
&&
.MARINE...VERY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BETWEEN 35 AND 40
KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING OVER THE
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD BETWEEN 6 AND 8
FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 8 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING
ON MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...S/W TROUGH AXIS WILL KICK EAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN ZONES AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AN INCREASE IN NVA
SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCES RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AS
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH SKIRTS EAST ACROSS TX. THIS SYSTEM IS PROG TO BE
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE STARVED THAN MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY SYSTEM...AND THUS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NW FLOW FROM SFC TO UPPER LEVELS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SUNNIER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. BRIEF
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY TRANSITIONS TO MERIDIONAL BY THE WEEKEND
WITH BOTH ECMWF/GFS WANTING TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WANTING TO CUT OFF A STRONG H5 LOW ACROSS
NW MEX AND SHIFT IT EAST TOWARDS THE BIG BEND REGION. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR LATTER PERIODS DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PROGRESSES CLOSER. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR TUES WITH ONLY TEMPERED
MODIFICATION ON WEDNESDAY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP EXPECTED THURS
AND FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY
IMPACTS THE AREA LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 35 47 38 44 44 / 30 20 50 50 20
VICTORIA 33 47 36 42 41 / 30 10 50 50 20
LAREDO 38 46 39 52 47 / 10 10 20 10 10
ALICE 35 46 38 45 43 / 20 10 40 40 20
ROCKPORT 33 48 39 45 45 / 30 20 50 50 20
COTULLA 36 49 37 48 44 / 10 10 30 10 10
KINGSVILLE 35 45 38 46 44 / 30 20 50 50 20
NAVY CORPUS 37 46 41 45 45 / 30 20 50 50 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...
VICTORIA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
TB/78...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
118 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING SOUTHWEST TO INCLUDE THE DALLAS-
FORT WORTH METROPOLITAN AREA JUST BEFORE NOON. THIS DECISION WAS
MADE PRIMARILY DUE TO TWO PIECES OF EVIDENCE:
1. TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE MID 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WHERE THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS EXPANDED INTO.
EVEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS STARTING TO CAUSE PROBLEMS...AND
MPING (THE RESEARCH SMART-PHONE APP) REPORTS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF SLEET FALLING A FEW HOURS BEFORE
FREEZING RAIN WAS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION OVER TO SLEET. WE WILL
NOT BE GETTING ANY WARMER DURING THIS EVENT...SO MORE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SLEET IS GOING TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON
PRIMARY ROADWAYS AND NOT JUST ELEVATED SURFACES.
2. INFRARED SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADARS WERE SHOWING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DEVELOPING FROM SHERMAN SOUTHWEST TO AZLE A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ARRIVED OVER NORTH TEXAS. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...CONVECTION
IS ONLY EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE. THE FACT THAT CONVECTION
WAS BEGINNING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH JUST MEANS MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
ICE/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS.
METEOROLOGICAL REASONING:
A 1630Z AIRCRAFT RAOB FROM DALLAS LOVE FIELD OBSERVED A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW...BUT VERY COLD...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER NORTH TEXAS. THE
LOWEST TEMPERATURE IN THE COLD AIR WAS OBSERVED AT -8 DEG C. ABOVE
THE FRONTAL INVERSION...THERE WAS STILL QUITE A WARM NOSE IN PLACE
WITH A TEMPERATURE OF PLUS 11 DEG C JUST ABOVE THE 850 MB LEVEL.
PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH THIS VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE FROM
ALOFT MUST BE IN A LIQUID FORM BEFORE REACHING THE LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR MASS. THIS SEEMINGLY LIMITS OUR PRECIPITATION OPTIONS TO
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET.
HOWEVER...TO THE WEST OF THE DFW AREA...SNOW IS BEING
CONSISTENTLY REPORTED FROM THE PUBLIC VIA SOCIAL MEDIA AND MPING
REPORTS. SO WHAT IS HAPPENING? WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW FOR
SURE...WHAT IS LIKELY TAKING PLACE IS THAT THE SHALLOW BUT VERY
COLD LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS HAS COOLED DOWN TO -10 DEG C OR BELOW TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA (WHERE WE HAVE AIRCRAFT
OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE). AT -10 DEG C TO APPROXIMATELY -20 DEG
C...WATER DROPLETS TEND TO CRYSTALLIZE INTO DENDRITE SHAPED
CRYSTALS. THE MIXTURE OF CRYSTALS AND LIQUID WATER THAT IS
SUPERCOOLED (BELOW FREEZING BUT STILL IN LIQUID FORM) PROMOTES THE
GROWTH OF THE DENDRITE CRYSTALS AT THE EXPENSE OF THE SUPERCOOLED
WATER DROPLETS...PROMOTING A PRECIPITATION TYPE PRIMARILY
DOMINATED BY SNOW AS OPPOSED TO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. AT ANY
RATE...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SNOW TO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS OUR LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS DOES IN FACT LOOK
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH VERY CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS PRETTY EXTRAORDINARY FOR NORTH TEXAS.
WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE FORECAST FOR SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TO ONE HALF INCH FOR THE ENTIRE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. LEFT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ALONE...OR SLIGHTLY DECREASED AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT
DUE TO A SEEMINGLY SMALLER WINDOW FOR TRUE FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO SLEET. SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LEAVE ROADWAYS VERY SLICK...ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THROWN INTO THE MIX. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS EVENT. ANYWHERE STORMS OCCUR...LOCALIZED
HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET ARE EXPECTED. MOST OF THESE SLEET
PRODUCING STORMS SHOULD BE CONTAINED WITHIN THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...HOWEVER ANYWHERE THERE IS A THUNDERSTORM AND THE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 20S...YOU CAN EXPECT QUICK SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN AN HOUR. THIS WILL
OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HAZARDOUS
ROADWAYS...REGARDLESS OF WHETHER YOU ARE IN A WINTER STORM WARNING
OR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
LASTLY...WHAT WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON ARE THOSE
COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WE DID NOT EXPAND
THE ADVISORY SOUTH JUST BEFORE NOON BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WERE
HOVERING NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. WE HAVE CONSISTENTLY HAD
REPORTS OF LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PRECIPITATION UNTIL
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 20S...SO WITH THOSE LOCATIONS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY HOLDING ON TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
30S...THOUGHT THAT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE IMPACTS ON AREA ROADWAYS
AT THIS TIME. THE PREVIOUS 48 HOURS SAW HIGHS INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS...SO IT REALLY WILL TAKE SOME COLD AIR FOR
IMPACTS TO BEGIN ACROSS THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN/LAMPASAS AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY FOR
TEMPERATURES THAT DROP INTO THE MID 20S WHILE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S EVENTUALLY...BUT MOST PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO END AS WE GET DRY SLOTTED FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THAT OCCURS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WINTER WEATHER
EVENT...AND BROADCAST OUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
PRIMARY CONCERN...WINTRY PRECIP.
METROPLEX TODAY...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET HAS FALLEN SINCE MID-MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROZEN. A STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND WILL INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WARM AIR ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION IS QUITE UNSTABLE...AND
SOME SLEET THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 1/2
INCH...BUT SOME HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR UNDER THE STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF METROPLEX TAF
SITES BY SUNSET.
WACO TODAY...
TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED BELOW FREEZING AT WACO. AS A RESULT...
THE INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FREEZING
RAIN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME ICE ACCUMULATION ON ELEVATED
SURFACES...THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE NORTH.
TONIGHT...
AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...A REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE TEENS (NEAR 20F AT WACO). WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
THE LATEST NAM/RAP LOOK REASONABLE WITH FRONTAL TIMING BUT ARE A
FEW DEGREES TOO WARM. OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND TIMING RELIES
ON A RAP/NAM BLEND WITH A FEW TWEAKS. ALL OTHER NON-WRF MODELS
INCLUDING THE OFTEN RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN TOO SLOW WITH THE
FRONT AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFICULT TO TRUST WITH TODAYS FORECAST.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS GOING TO BE THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AT 5 AM...THE FREEZE LINE HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE NW CWA AND WILL
BE CROSSING THROUGH THE METROPLEX FROM NW TO SE IN THE EARLY-MID
MORNING HOURS. BY NOON...EXPECT THE FREEZE LINE TO BE NEAR A
LAMPASAS TO HILLSBORO TO CANTON LINE. FREEZING TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
ENCOMPASS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG TODAY...AND BY MIDDAY...TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE NW ZONES...WITH
TEMPS IN THE 20S REACHING THE METROPLEX. THESE TEMPS IN THE 20S
REMOVE ANY CONCERN ABOUT WHETHER ROAD SURFACES WOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION AFTER OUR
WARM WEATHER. STILL...BRIDGES/OVERPASSES WILL BE FIRST TO GO.
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT THIS MORNING...PRECIP
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
GENTLY LIFTED ABOVE THE VERY SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION. ICE
ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. ALL MODEL QPF THIS MORNING LOOKS WAY TOO
HIGH. SO PRETTY MUCH EXPECT THE ENTIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AREA TO CONTEND WITH THIS VERY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW SPINNING THROUGH
ARIZONA...WHICH WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
CRITICAL IN ORDER TO GENERATE ANY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE REGION NEAR 700MB
WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE LIFTED FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS
WOULD FAVOR GENERALLY THE REGION EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE CAP WILL
BE WEAKEST. IN ADDITION...THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUT
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS IN A PRIME AREA FOR THE
DRY SLOT TO ROTATE IN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ALL MORNING SUGGESTING THAT THE CAP WILL HOLD ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND THE ARRIVING DRY SLOT WILL END ANY
OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY. THE RAP KEEPS ALL
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. MANY OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS INDICATE ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AROUND 18Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST. WE WILL
FOLLOW THEIR FORECAST...WHICH MEANS THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BE A
TRANSITION ZONE WHERE STREAKS OF LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF FREEZING
OR FROZEN PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE JUST A FEW MILES FROM ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS OF ICE. AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL BE PRESENT
TODAY...ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS EVEN SOME WITH
QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE ISSUE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM IS GOING TO BE
THE LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY IN
THE FORM OF SLEET WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. HOWEVER WITH SUCH
WARM TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION IT IS POSSIBLE PRECIP
TYPE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE OF ELEVATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AND METROPLEX...SEE NO
REASON TO EXPAND THE WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST
ZONES WESTWARD. AGAIN...THIS AREA WILL SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF HEAVY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WHERE ANY ISOLATED STORMS START TO
DEVELOP. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL FILL IN AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ZONES. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
NORTHEAST ZONES LOOKS REASONABLE FOR ACCUMULATION OF SLEET UP TO A
HALF INCH AND ICE AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AREA...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
HIGH...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND LIMIT THE ACCUMULATION SO
AN EXPANSION OF THE WARNING IS NOT NEEDED THERE.
EXPECT THE DRY SLOT TO END ALL PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. WACO/TEMPLE
MAY GET A BRIEF SHOT AT SOME FREEZING RAIN TODAY...BUT BELIEVE THE
CAP WILL HOLD THERE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN.
EVENT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO EXPAND ADVISORY DOWN THERE NOW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
TEXAS WITH SOME LOW 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. NORTH WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH WILL PUT WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20
AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE
COLD ON MONDAY AS MODERATION OF THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE
SLOW DUE TO MORNING CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION. NORTH WINDS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AND SOME AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP PUSH
HIGHS UP INTO THE 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WHILE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
BUT INCREASING CLOUDS SOUTH OF I-20 AROUND MIDNIGHT WILL PUT THE
BRAKES ON RADIATIVE HEAT LOSS. TO THE NORTH OF I-20...SKIES SHOULD
STAY AT LEAST PARTLY CLEAR...SO LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S THERE. THE INCREASING CLOUDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT TAPS INTO SOME MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND
DRAGS IT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH SATURATION OCCURRING FROM
700-500MB. THIS SATURATION OCCURS IN THE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WHICH SUGGESTS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST. WILL CONFINE POPS TO THE REGION SOUTH OF I-20 TUESDAY
MORNING AS THERE IS NO MODEL GUIDANCE THAT BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WHILE 850MB TEMPS WILL HAVE
WARMED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS TIME...THE SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THUS EXPECT A MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL SLOW WARMING OF THE LOW LEVELS VIA WARM
ADVECTION HELPS PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING.
ANY PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST BY MIDDAY. POPS WERE KEPT GENERALLY ON THE LOW SIDE AS
THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE MODEL HOLDOUTS ON THIS EVENT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS EVENT MORE CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT
DAY FOR A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS SURFACE TEMPS LOOK
LIKE THEY COULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ICE BRIDGES/OVERPASSES TUESDAY
MORNING IF PRECIP DOES IN FACT MATERIALIZE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
TROUGH WILL DIG. WILL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY IN
CASE AN AGGRESSIVE ECMWF-LIKE FORECAST VERIFIES. TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...SO JUST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS IF ANYTHING AT THIS POINT. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR THURSDAY. TEMPS
WILL WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ORGANIZING IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 60S ON
THURSDAY AND CREST AROUND 70 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN THERE IS
POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WITH THE GFS A
NOTABLE FAST OUTLIER. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH ALIGNS BETTER
WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THIS MEANS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
SATURDAY WITH A COOL DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE ECMWF HAS
HAD A COUPLE RUNS WHERE IT DROPPED A PIECE OF ENERGY SOUTHWEST INTO
THE BAJA REGION WHICH WOULD GIVE US A CHANCE OF RAIN AND CLOUDY
WEATHER HERE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THIS SOLUTION LOOKS A LITTLE ODD AT
THIS POINT. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND PUT TEMPS BETWEEN
THE COOLER ECMWF AND WARMER GFS.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 17 33 26 45 36 / 10 0 10 10 10
WACO, TX 20 37 28 45 34 / 10 0 20 30 10
PARIS, TX 14 32 23 45 30 / 70 0 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 15 32 22 46 32 / 10 0 10 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 15 32 23 44 31 / 30 0 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 17 33 27 45 36 / 20 0 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 17 33 25 45 34 / 40 0 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 20 36 27 44 35 / 30 0 10 30 10
TEMPLE, TX 20 38 28 46 36 / 10 0 20 30 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 15 35 23 48 33 / 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ093>095-
103>107-118>121-133-134.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-
092-100>102-115>117-122-123-129>132-135-141>146.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1233 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKIES ARE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE OUT WEST SO HAVE LEFT AFTERNOON HIGHS ALONE FOR NOW. TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE VICTORIA REGION AND IMMEDIATE COAST. LINE OF SHOWERS
WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY IMPACT THE
VICTORIA REGION JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN UPDATE TO TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
ALIGN WINDS WITH CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGED
WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH TO THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING...AND LOCATED NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO ATTM. PRIOR TO FROPA...
IMPROVING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT LRD...AND PERHAPS ALI AS CLEARING
LINES MOVES TO THE EAST. CURRENT THINKING VCT/CRP WILL REMAIN AT
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST HRRR DATA.
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. LIMITED
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE VCT TERMINAL AS FINE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
MOSTLY LIKELY IMPACT THE VCT CROSSROADS REGION. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35
KNOTS AT TIMES AT CRP...AND AROUND 30 KNOTS AT THE OTHER
TERMINALS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO IFR AT ALI/CRP/VCT AND
REMAIN MVFR AT LRD. GUSTY WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARDS END OF THE TAF CYCLE...BUT ANTICIPATE LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG
TOUGH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...IFR TO LIFR CIGS FOR EASTERN SITES THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE. ALI/LRD SITES CURRENTLY VFR...BUT COULD STILL
BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT ALL BUT
LRD TAF SITES TO BE MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THICK
STRATUS DECK AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALSO SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS. COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR VCT SITE. COLD FRONT
MOVES IN BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AS OF 4AM COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY BETWEEN DALLAS AND WACO. NAM HAS PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
FRONTAL POSITION/TIMING...WITH MOST OTHER MODELS LAGGING A BIT
BEHIND. RUC/RAP MODEL HOWEVER A BIT AHEAD OF NAM. HAVE BASED
TIMING FORECAST ON A BLEND OF THE RAP AND NAM. THIS HAS THE FRONT
ON THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 21Z...AND
THROUGH ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BY 00Z. WILL SEE THE
FRONT THROUGH LAREDO BY AROUND 00-01Z...AND THROUGH CORPUS 01-02Z.
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
SHOULD BE A WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 EXPECTED AGAIN OUT WEST. 925 AND 850 WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND A MAINLY SOUTH WIND DOES POSE THE POSSIBILITY OF
EVEN WARMER TEMPS...HOWEVER STRATUS SHOULD TEMPER THIS SOME.
WEAKENED CAP AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN PROXIMITY OF NORTHEAST ZONES
WILL BRING THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED POPS MUCH...MAINLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S...BUT HAVE A BIT OF 40 POP ALONG NORTH EAST
BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. POPS DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING WILL LINGER 20 POPS IN SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S FOR A LOT OF THE AREA. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE (NAM BASED) HAS LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST
ZONES...BUT WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER THINK WE PROBABLY CAN NOT
REACH THAT. HIGHS MONDAY IN SOME AREAS WILL BE 40 DEGREES LOWER THAN
HIGHS ON SUNDAY. COULD SEE COLDEST HIGHS IN SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO
THICKER CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING RAIN CHANCES. MAINLY HIGHS IN THE
40S MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT STRONGER ACCORDING TO 00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF.
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH STEADILY INCREASING
MOISTURE ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. RAISED POPS
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT TO 40-50
PERCENT. WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING...MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ONLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THAT WILL DEEPEN INTO
A LOW AS IT MOVES INTO LOUISIANA THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE GULF
WATERS. DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN...PUT IN A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.
MARINE...HAVE REPLACED GALE WATCH WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT/MONDAY. WHILE SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE/LIKELY...THINK MAINLY CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO COME DOWN
MONDAY. OFFSHORE ZONES MAY NEED SCA EXTENDED BEYOND 00Z
TUESDAY...BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE BEHAVIOR OF WAVES BEFORE TRYING TO
GET TOO DETAILED ON TIMING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 36 47 38 46 / 30 30 10 40 50
VICTORIA 77 32 47 36 43 / 30 40 10 50 50
LAREDO 90 41 46 39 49 / 20 10 20 30 20
ALICE 87 37 46 37 45 / 20 20 10 30 50
ROCKPORT 74 34 48 39 47 / 20 30 10 50 50
COTULLA 86 37 49 37 47 / 20 10 10 30 20
KINGSVILLE 85 37 45 38 46 / 20 30 20 30 50
NAVY CORPUS 72 38 46 41 48 / 20 30 20 40 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
TB/78...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1219 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
PRIMARY CONCERN...WINTRY PRECIP.
METROPLEX TODAY...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET HAS FALLEN SINCE MID-MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROZEN. A STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND WILL INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WARM AIR ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION IS QUITE UNSTABLE...AND
SOME SLEET THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 1/2
INCH...BUT SOME HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR UNDER THE STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF METROPLEX TAF
SITES BY SUNSET.
WACO TODAY...
TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED BELOW FREEZING AT WACO. AS A RESULT...
THE INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FREEZING
RAIN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME ICE ACCUMULATION ON ELEVATED
SURFACES...THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE NORTH.
TONIGHT...
AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...A REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE TEENS (NEAR 20F AT WACO). WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
THE LATEST NAM/RAP LOOK REASONABLE WITH FRONTAL TIMING BUT ARE A
FEW DEGREES TOO WARM. OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND TIMING RELIES
ON A RAP/NAM BLEND WITH A FEW TWEAKS. ALL OTHER NON-WRF MODELS
INCLUDING THE OFTEN RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN TOO SLOW WITH THE
FRONT AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFICULT TO TRUST WITH TODAYS FORECAST.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS GOING TO BE THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AT 5 AM...THE FREEZE LINE HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE NW CWA AND WILL
BE CROSSING THROUGH THE METROPLEX FROM NW TO SE IN THE EARLY-MID
MORNING HOURS. BY NOON...EXPECT THE FREEZE LINE TO BE NEAR A
LAMPASAS TO HILLSBORO TO CANTON LINE. FREEZING TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
ENCOMPASS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG TODAY...AND BY MIDDAY...TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE NW ZONES...WITH
TEMPS IN THE 20S REACHING THE METROPLEX. THESE TEMPS IN THE 20S
REMOVE ANY CONCERN ABOUT WHETHER ROAD SURFACES WOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION AFTER OUR
WARM WEATHER. STILL...BRIDGES/OVERPASSES WILL BE FIRST TO GO.
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT THIS MORNING...PRECIP
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
GENTLY LIFTED ABOVE THE VERY SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION. ICE
ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. ALL MODEL QPF THIS MORNING LOOKS WAY TOO
HIGH. SO PRETTY MUCH EXPECT THE ENTIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AREA TO CONTEND WITH THIS VERY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW SPINNING THROUGH
ARIZONA...WHICH WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
CRITICAL IN ORDER TO GENERATE ANY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE REGION NEAR 700MB
WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE LIFTED FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS
WOULD FAVOR GENERALLY THE REGION EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE CAP WILL
BE WEAKEST. IN ADDITION...THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUT
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS IN A PRIME AREA FOR THE
DRY SLOT TO ROTATE IN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ALL MORNING SUGGESTING THAT THE CAP WILL HOLD ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND THE ARRIVING DRY SLOT WILL END ANY
OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY. THE RAP KEEPS ALL
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. MANY OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS INDICATE ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AROUND 18Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST. WE WILL
FOLLOW THEIR FORECAST...WHICH MEANS THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BE A
TRANSITION ZONE WHERE STREAKS OF LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF FREEZING
OR FROZEN PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE JUST A FEW MILES FROM ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS OF ICE. AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL BE PRESENT
TODAY...ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS EVEN SOME WITH
QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE ISSUE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM IS GOING TO BE
THE LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY IN
THE FORM OF SLEET WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. HOWEVER WITH SUCH
WARM TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION IT IS POSSIBLE PRECIP
TYPE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE OF ELEVATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AND METROPLEX...SEE NO
REASON TO EXPAND THE WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST
ZONES WESTWARD. AGAIN...THIS AREA WILL SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF HEAVY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WHERE ANY ISOLATED STORMS START TO
DEVELOP. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL FILL IN AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ZONES. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
NORTHEAST ZONES LOOKS REASONABLE FOR ACCUMULATION OF SLEET UP TO A
HALF INCH AND ICE AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AREA...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
HIGH...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND LIMIT THE ACCUMULATION SO
AN EXPANSION OF THE WARNING IS NOT NEEDED THERE.
EXPECT THE DRY SLOT TO END ALL PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. WACO/TEMPLE
MAY GET A BRIEF SHOT AT SOME FREEZING RAIN TODAY...BUT BELIEVE THE
CAP WILL HOLD THERE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN.
EVENT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO EXPAND ADVISORY DOWN THERE NOW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
TEXAS WITH SOME LOW 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. NORTH WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH WILL PUT WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20
AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE
COLD ON MONDAY AS MODERATION OF THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE
SLOW DUE TO MORNING CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION. NORTH WINDS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AND SOME AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP PUSH
HIGHS UP INTO THE 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WHILE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
BUT INCREASING CLOUDS SOUTH OF I-20 AROUND MIDNIGHT WILL PUT THE
BRAKES ON RADIATIVE HEAT LOSS. TO THE NORTH OF I-20...SKIES SHOULD
STAY AT LEAST PARTLY CLEAR...SO LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S THERE. THE INCREASING CLOUDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT TAPS INTO SOME MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND
DRAGS IT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH SATURATION OCCURRING FROM
700-500MB. THIS SATURATION OCCURS IN THE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WHICH SUGGESTS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST. WILL CONFINE POPS TO THE REGION SOUTH OF I-20 TUESDAY
MORNING AS THERE IS NO MODEL GUIDANCE THAT BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WHILE 850MB TEMPS WILL HAVE
WARMED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS TIME...THE SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THUS EXPECT A MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL SLOW WARMING OF THE LOW LEVELS VIA WARM
ADVECTION HELPS PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING.
ANY PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST BY MIDDAY. POPS WERE KEPT GENERALLY ON THE LOW SIDE AS
THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE MODEL HOLDOUTS ON THIS EVENT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS EVENT MORE CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT
DAY FOR A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS SURFACE TEMPS LOOK
LIKE THEY COULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ICE BRIDGES/OVERPASSES TUESDAY
MORNING IF PRECIP DOES IN FACT MATERIALIZE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
TROUGH WILL DIG. WILL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY IN
CASE AN AGGRESSIVE ECMWF-LIKE FORECAST VERIFIES. TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...SO JUST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS IF ANYTHING AT THIS POINT. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR THURSDAY. TEMPS
WILL WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ORGANIZING IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 60S ON
THURSDAY AND CREST AROUND 70 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN THERE IS
POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WITH THE GFS A
NOTABLE FAST OUTLIER. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH ALIGNS BETTER
WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THIS MEANS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
SATURDAY WITH A COOL DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE ECMWF HAS
HAD A COUPLE RUNS WHERE IT DROPPED A PIECE OF ENERGY SOUTHWEST INTO
THE BAJA REGION WHICH WOULD GIVE US A CHANCE OF RAIN AND CLOUDY
WEATHER HERE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THIS SOLUTION LOOKS A LITTLE ODD AT
THIS POINT. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND PUT TEMPS BETWEEN
THE COOLER ECMWF AND WARMER GFS.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 35 17 33 26 45 / 80 10 0 10 10
WACO, TX 43 20 37 28 45 / 80 10 0 20 30
PARIS, TX 33 14 32 23 45 / 100 70 0 10 10
DENTON, TX 32 15 32 22 46 / 80 10 0 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 34 15 32 23 44 / 90 30 0 10 10
DALLAS, TX 36 17 33 27 45 / 80 20 0 10 10
TERRELL, TX 40 17 33 25 45 / 90 40 0 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 49 20 36 27 44 / 90 30 0 10 30
TEMPLE, TX 61 20 38 28 46 / 80 10 0 20 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 30 15 35 23 48 / 80 10 0 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ091>093-100>104-115>123-129>135-141>146.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ094-095-
105>107.
&&
$$
25/69
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
556 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.AVIATION...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX HAS THUS
FAR BEEN IN LIQUID FORM. WE SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE 13-14Z TIME IN FORT WORTH...THEN
AROUND THE 15Z TIME AT KDFW AND KDAL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP AND SHOULD BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE METROPLEX BY
NOON. THIS IS AROUND THE SAME TIME THAT ASCENT WILL INCREASE
OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
SEEN ON SATELLITE MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHERN AZ/NM INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT...BUT IT
WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF
MODERATE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS ASCENT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...ENDING IN THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH
AREA AROUND 03/00Z. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH BY LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. KACT WILL BE SOUTH OF WHERE
MOST OF THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...BUT SHOULD STILL
EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF -FZRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
ALL LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
THE LATEST NAM/RAP LOOK REASONABLE WITH FRONTAL TIMING BUT ARE A
FEW DEGREES TOO WARM. OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND TIMING RELIES
ON A RAP/NAM BLEND WITH A FEW TWEAKS. ALL OTHER NON-WRF MODELS
INCLUDING THE OFTEN RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN TOO SLOW WITH THE
FRONT AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFICULT TO TRUST WITH TODAYS FORECAST.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS GOING TO BE THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AT 5 AM...THE FREEZE LINE HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE NW CWA AND WILL
BE CROSSING THROUGH THE METROPLEX FROM NW TO SE IN THE EARLY-MID
MORNING HOURS. BY NOON...EXPECT THE FREEZE LINE TO BE NEAR A
LAMPASAS TO HILLSBORO TO CANTON LINE. FREEZING TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
ENCOMPASS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG TODAY...AND BY MIDDAY...TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE NW ZONES...WITH
TEMPS IN THE 20S REACHING THE METROPLEX. THESE TEMPS IN THE 20S
REMOVE ANY CONCERN ABOUT WHETHER ROAD SURFACES WOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION AFTER OUR
WARM WEATHER. STILL...BRIDGES/OVERPASSES WILL BE FIRST TO GO.
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT THIS MORNING...PRECIP
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
GENTLY LIFTED ABOVE THE VERY SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION. ICE
ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. ALL MODEL QPF THIS MORNING LOOKS WAY TOO
HIGH. SO PRETTY MUCH EXPECT THE ENTIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AREA TO CONTEND WITH THIS VERY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW SPINNING THROUGH
ARIZONA...WHICH WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
CRITICAL IN ORDER TO GENERATE ANY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE REGION NEAR 700MB
WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE LIFTED FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS
WOULD FAVOR GENERALLY THE REGION EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE CAP WILL
BE WEAKEST. IN ADDITION...THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUT
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS IN A PRIME AREA FOR THE
DRY SLOT TO ROTATE IN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ALL MORNING SUGGESTING THAT THE CAP WILL HOLD ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND THE ARRIVING DRY SLOT WILL END ANY
OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY. THE RAP KEEPS ALL
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. MANY OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS INDICATE ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AROUND 18Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST. WE WILL
FOLLOW THEIR FORECAST...WHICH MEANS THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BE A
TRANSITION ZONE WHERE STREAKS OF LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF FREEZING
OR FROZEN PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE JUST A FEW MILES FROM ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS OF ICE. AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL BE PRESENT
TODAY...ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS EVEN SOME WITH
QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE ISSUE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM IS GOING TO BE
THE LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY IN
THE FORM OF SLEET WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. HOWEVER WITH SUCH
WARM TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION IT IS POSSIBLE PRECIP
TYPE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE OF ELEVATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AND METROPLEX...SEE NO
REASON TO EXPAND THE WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST
ZONES WESTWARD. AGAIN...THIS AREA WILL SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF HEAVY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WHERE ANY ISOLATED STORMS START TO
DEVELOP. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL FILL IN AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ZONES. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
NORTHEAST ZONES LOOKS REASONABLE FOR ACCUMULATION OF SLEET UP TO A
HALF INCH AND ICE AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AREA...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
HIGH...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND LIMIT THE ACCUMULATION SO
AN EXPANSION OF THE WARNING IS NOT NEEDED THERE.
EXPECT THE DRY SLOT TO END ALL PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. WACO/TEMPLE
MAY GET A BRIEF SHOT AT SOME FREEZING RAIN TODAY...BUT BELIEVE THE
CAP WILL HOLD THERE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN.
EVENT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO EXPAND ADVISORY DOWN THERE NOW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
TEXAS WITH SOME LOW 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. NORTH WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH WILL PUT WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20
AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE
COLD ON MONDAY AS MODERATION OF THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE
SLOW DUE TO MORNING CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION. NORTH WINDS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AND SOME AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP PUSH
HIGHS UP INTO THE 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WHILE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
BUT INCREASING CLOUDS SOUTH OF I-20 AROUND MIDNIGHT WILL PUT THE
BRAKES ON RADIATIVE HEAT LOSS. TO THE NORTH OF I-20...SKIES SHOULD
STAY AT LEAST PARTLY CLEAR...SO LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S THERE. THE INCREASING CLOUDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT TAPS INTO SOME MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND
DRAGS IT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH SATURATION OCCURRING FROM
700-500MB. THIS SATURATION OCCURS IN THE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WHICH SUGGESTS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST. WILL CONFINE POPS TO THE REGION SOUTH OF I-20 TUESDAY
MORNING AS THERE IS NO MODEL GUIDANCE THAT BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WHILE 850MB TEMPS WILL HAVE
WARMED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS TIME...THE SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THUS EXPECT A MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL SLOW WARMING OF THE LOW LEVELS VIA WARM
ADVECTION HELPS PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING.
ANY PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST BY MIDDAY. POPS WERE KEPT GENERALLY ON THE LOW SIDE AS
THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE MODEL HOLDOUTS ON THIS EVENT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS EVENT MORE CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT
DAY FOR A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS SURFACE TEMPS LOOK
LIKE THEY COULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ICE BRIDGES/OVERPASSES TUESDAY
MORNING IF PRECIP DOES IN FACT MATERIALIZE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
TROUGH WILL DIG. WILL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY IN
CASE AN AGGRESSIVE ECMWF-LIKE FORECAST VERIFIES. TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...SO JUST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS IF ANYTHING AT THIS POINT. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR THURSDAY. TEMPS
WILL WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ORGANIZING IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 60S ON
THURSDAY AND CREST AROUND 70 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN THERE IS
POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WITH THE GFS A
NOTABLE FAST OUTLIER. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH ALIGNS BETTER
WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THIS MEANS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
SATURDAY WITH A COOL DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE ECMWF HAS
HAD A COUPLE RUNS WHERE IT DROPPED A PIECE OF ENERGY SOUTHWEST INTO
THE BAJA REGION WHICH WOULD GIVE US A CHANCE OF RAIN AND CLOUDY
WEATHER HERE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THIS SOLUTION LOOKS A LITTLE ODD AT
THIS POINT. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND PUT TEMPS BETWEEN
THE COOLER ECMWF AND WARMER GFS.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 35 17 33 26 45 / 80 10 0 10 10
WACO, TX 43 20 37 28 45 / 80 10 0 20 30
PARIS, TX 33 14 32 23 45 / 100 70 0 10 10
DENTON, TX 32 15 32 22 46 / 80 10 0 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 34 15 32 23 44 / 90 30 0 10 10
DALLAS, TX 36 17 33 27 45 / 80 20 0 10 10
TERRELL, TX 40 17 33 25 45 / 90 40 0 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 49 20 36 27 44 / 90 30 0 10 30
TEMPLE, TX 61 20 38 28 46 / 80 10 0 20 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 30 15 35 23 48 / 80 10 0 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ091>093-100>104-115>123-129>135-141>146.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ094-095-
105>107.
&&
$$
30/92
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
534 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR TO LIFR CIGS FOR EASTERN SITES THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE. ALI/LRD SITES CURRENTLY VFR...BUT COULD STILL
BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT ALL BUT
LRD TAF SITES TO BE MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THICK
STRATUS DECK AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALSO SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS. COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR VCT SITE. COLD FRONT
MOVES IN BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AS OF 4AM COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY BETWEEN DALLAS AND WACO. NAM HAS PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
FRONTAL POSITION/TIMING...WITH MOST OTHER MODELS LAGGING A BIT
BEHIND. RUC/RAP MODEL HOWEVER A BIT AHEAD OF NAM. HAVE BASED
TIMING FORECAST ON A BLEND OF THE RAP AND NAM. THIS HAS THE FRONT
ON THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 21Z...AND
THROUGH ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BY 00Z. WILL SEE THE
FRONT THROUGH LAREDO BY AROUND 00-01Z...AND THROUGH CORPUS 01-02Z.
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
SHOULD BE A WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 EXPECTED AGAIN OUT WEST. 925 AND 850 WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND A MAINLY SOUTH WIND DOES POSE THE POSSIBILITY OF
EVEN WARMER TEMPS...HOWEVER STRATUS SHOULD TEMPER THIS SOME.
WEAKENED CAP AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN PROXIMITY OF NORTHEAST ZONES
WILL BRING THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED POPS MUCH...MAINLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S...BUT HAVE A BIT OF 40 POP ALONG NORTH EAST
BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. POPS DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING WILL LINGER 20 POPS IN SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S FOR A LOT OF THE AREA. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE (NAM BASED) HAS LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST
ZONES...BUT WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER THINK WE PROBABLY CAN NOT
REACH THAT. HIGHS MONDAY IN SOME AREAS WILL BE 40 DEGREES LOWER THAN
HIGHS ON SUNDAY. COULD SEE COLDEST HIGHS IN SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO
THICKER CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING RAIN CHANCES. MAINLY HIGHS IN THE
40S MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT STRONGER ACCORDING TO 00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF.
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH STEADILY INCREASING
MOISTURE ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. RAISED POPS
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT TO 40-50
PERCENT. WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING...MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ONLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THAT WILL DEEPEN INTO
A LOW AS IT MOVES INTO LOUISIANA THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE GULF
WATERS. DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN...PUT IN A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.
MARINE...HAVE REPLACED GALE WATCH WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT/MONDAY. WHILE SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE/LIKELY...THINK MAINLY CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO COME DOWN
MONDAY. OFFSHORE ZONES MAY NEED SCA EXTENDED BEYOND 00Z
TUESDAY...BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE BEHAVIOR OF WAVES BEFORE TRYING TO
GET TOO DETAILED ON TIMING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 36 47 38 46 / 30 30 10 40 50
VICTORIA 77 32 47 36 43 / 30 40 10 50 50
LAREDO 90 41 46 39 49 / 20 10 20 30 20
ALICE 87 37 46 37 45 / 20 20 10 30 50
ROCKPORT 74 34 48 39 47 / 20 30 10 50 50
COTULLA 86 37 49 37 47 / 20 10 10 30 20
KINGSVILLE 85 37 45 38 46 / 20 30 20 30 50
NAVY CORPUS 72 38 46 41 48 / 20 30 20 40 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
PZ/83...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
515 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST NAM/RAP LOOK REASONABLE WITH FRONTAL TIMING BUT ARE A
FEW DEGREES TOO WARM. OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND TIMING RELIES
ON A RAP/NAM BLEND WITH A FEW TWEAKS. ALL OTHER NON-WRF MODELS
INCLUDING THE OFTEN RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN TOO SLOW WITH THE
FRONT AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFICULT TO TRUST WITH TODAYS FORECAST.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS GOING TO BE THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AT 5 AM...THE FREEZE LINE HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE NW CWA AND WILL
BE CROSSING THROUGH THE METROPLEX FROM NW TO SE IN THE EARLY-MID
MORNING HOURS. BY NOON...EXPECT THE FREEZE LINE TO BE NEAR A
LAMPASAS TO HILLSBORO TO CANTON LINE. FREEZING TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
ENCOMPASS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG TODAY...AND BY MIDDAY...TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE NW ZONES...WITH
TEMPS IN THE 20S REACHING THE METROPLEX. THESE TEMPS IN THE 20S
REMOVE ANY CONCERN ABOUT WHETHER ROAD SURFACES WOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION AFTER OUR
WARM WEATHER. STILL...BRIDGES/OVERPASSES WILL BE FIRST TO GO.
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT THIS MORNING...PRECIP
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
GENTLY LIFTED ABOVE THE VERY SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION. ICE
ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. ALL MODEL QPF THIS MORNING LOOKS WAY TOO
HIGH. SO PRETTY MUCH EXPECT THE ENTIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AREA TO CONTEND WITH THIS VERY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW SPINNING THROUGH
ARIZONA...WHICH WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
CRITICAL IN ORDER TO GENERATE ANY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE REGION NEAR 700MB
WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE LIFTED FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS
WOULD FAVOR GENERALLY THE REGION EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE CAP WILL
BE WEAKEST. IN ADDITION...THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUT
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS IN A PRIME AREA FOR THE
DRY SLOT TO ROTATE IN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ALL MORNING SUGGESTING THAT THE CAP WILL HOLD ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND THE ARRIVING DRY SLOT WILL END ANY
OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY. THE RAP KEEPS ALL
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. MANY OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS INDICATE ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AROUND 18Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST. WE WILL
FOLLOW THEIR FORECAST...WHICH MEANS THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BE A
TRANSITION ZONE WHERE STREAKS OF LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF FREEZING
OR FROZEN PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE JUST A FEW MILES FROM ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS OF ICE. AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL BE PRESENT
TODAY...ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS EVEN SOME WITH
QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE ISSUE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM IS GOING TO BE
THE LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY IN
THE FORM OF SLEET WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. HOWEVER WITH SUCH
WARM TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION IT IS POSSIBLE PRECIP
TYPE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE OF ELEVATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AND METROPLEX...SEE NO
REASON TO EXPAND THE WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST
ZONES WESTWARD. AGAIN...THIS AREA WILL SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF HEAVY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WHERE ANY ISOLATED STORMS START TO
DEVELOP. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL FILL IN AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ZONES. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
NORTHEAST ZONES LOOKS REASONABLE FOR ACCUMULATION OF SLEET UP TO A
HALF INCH AND ICE AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AREA...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
HIGH...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND LIMIT THE ACCUMULATION SO
AN EXPANSION OF THE WARNING IS NOT NEEDED THERE.
EXPECT THE DRY SLOT TO END ALL PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. WACO/TEMPLE
MAY GET A BRIEF SHOT AT SOME FREEZING RAIN TODAY...BUT BELIEVE THE
CAP WILL HOLD THERE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN.
EVENT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO EXPAND ADVISORY DOWN THERE NOW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
TEXAS WITH SOME LOW 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. NORTH WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH WILL PUT WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20
AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE
COLD ON MONDAY AS MODERATION OF THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE
SLOW DUE TO MORNING CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION. NORTH WINDS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AND SOME AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP PUSH
HIGHS UP INTO THE 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WHILE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
BUT INCREASING CLOUDS SOUTH OF I-20 AROUND MIDNIGHT WILL PUT THE
BRAKES ON RADIATIVE HEAT LOSS. TO THE NORTH OF I-20...SKIES SHOULD
STAY AT LEAST PARTLY CLEAR...SO LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S THERE. THE INCREASING CLOUDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT TAPS INTO SOME MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND
DRAGS IT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH SATURATION OCCURRING FROM
700-500MB. THIS SATURATION OCCURS IN THE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WHICH SUGGESTS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST. WILL CONFINE POPS TO THE REGION SOUTH OF I-20 TUESDAY
MORNING AS THERE IS NO MODEL GUIDANCE THAT BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WHILE 850MB TEMPS WILL HAVE
WARMED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS TIME...THE SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THUS EXPECT A MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL SLOW WARMING OF THE LOW LEVELS VIA WARM
ADVECTION HELPS PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING.
ANY PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST BY MIDDAY. POPS WERE KEPT GENERALLY ON THE LOW SIDE AS
THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE MODEL HOLDOUTS ON THIS EVENT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS EVENT MORE CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT
DAY FOR A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS SURFACE TEMPS LOOK
LIKE THEY COULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ICE BRIDGES/OVERPASSES TUESDAY
MORNING IF PRECIP DOES IN FACT MATERIALIZE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
TROUGH WILL DIG. WILL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY IN
CASE AN AGGRESSIVE ECMWF-LIKE FORECAST VERIFIES. TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...SO JUST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS IF ANYTHING AT THIS POINT. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR THURSDAY. TEMPS
WILL WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ORGANIZING IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 60S ON
THURSDAY AND CREST AROUND 70 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN THERE IS
POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WITH THE GFS A
NOTABLE FAST OUTLIER. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH ALIGNS BETTER
WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THIS MEANS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
SATURDAY WITH A COOL DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE ECMWF HAS
HAD A COUPLE RUNS WHERE IT DROPPED A PIECE OF ENERGY SOUTHWEST INTO
THE BAJA REGION WHICH WOULD GIVE US A CHANCE OF RAIN AND CLOUDY
WEATHER HERE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THIS SOLUTION LOOKS A LITTLE ODD AT
THIS POINT. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND PUT TEMPS BETWEEN
THE COOLER ECMWF AND WARMER GFS.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 35 17 33 26 45 / 80 10 0 10 10
WACO, TX 43 20 37 28 45 / 80 10 0 20 30
PARIS, TX 33 14 32 23 45 / 100 70 0 10 10
DENTON, TX 32 15 32 22 46 / 80 10 0 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 34 15 32 23 44 / 90 30 0 10 10
DALLAS, TX 36 17 33 27 45 / 80 20 0 10 10
TERRELL, TX 40 17 33 25 45 / 90 40 0 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 49 20 36 27 44 / 90 30 0 10 30
TEMPLE, TX 61 20 38 28 46 / 80 10 0 20 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 30 15 35 23 48 / 80 10 0 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ091>093-100>104-115>123-129>135-141>146.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ094-095-
105>107.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
439 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AS OF 4AM COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY BETWEEN DALLAS AND WACO. NAM HAS PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
FRONTAL POSITION/TIMING...WITH MOST OTHER MODELS LAGGING A BIT
BEHIND. RUC/RAP MODEL HOWEVER A BIT AHEAD OF NAM. HAVE BASED
TIMING FORECAST ON A BLEND OF THE RAP AND NAM. THIS HAS THE FRONT
ON THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 21Z...AND
THROUGH ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BY 00Z. WILL SEE THE
FRONT THROUGH LAREDO BY AROUND 00-01Z...AND THROUGH CORPUS 01-02Z.
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
SHOULD BE A WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 EXPECTED AGAIN OUT WEST. 925 AND 850 WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND A MAINLY SOUTH WIND DOES POSE THE POSSIBILITY OF
EVEN WARMER TEMPS...HOWEVER STRATUS SHOULD TEMPER THIS SOME.
WEAKENED CAP AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN PROXIMITY OF NORTHEAST ZONES
WILL BRING THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED POPS MUCH...MAINLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S...BUT HAVE A BIT OF 40 POP ALONG NORTH EAST
BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. POPS DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING WILL LINGER 20 POPS IN SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S FOR A LOT OF THE AREA. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE (NAM BASED) HAS LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST
ZONES...BUT WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER THINK WE PROBABLY CAN NOT
REACH THAT. HIGHS MONDAY IN SOME AREAS WILL BE 40 DEGREES LOWER THAN
HIGHS ON SUNDAY. COULD SEE COLDEST HIGHS IN SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO
THICKER CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING RAIN CHANCES. MAINLY HIGHS IN THE
40S MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT STRONGER ACCORDING TO 00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF.
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH STEADILY INCREASING
MOISTURE ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. RAISED POPS
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT TO 40-50
PERCENT. WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING...MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ONLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THAT WILL DEEPEN INTO
A LOW AS IT MOVES INTO LOUISIANA THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE GULF
WATERS. DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN...PUT IN A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...HAVE REPLACED GALE WATCH WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT/MONDAY. WHILE SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE/LIKELY...THINK MAINLY CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO COME DOWN
MONDAY. OFFSHORE ZONES MAY NEED SCA EXTENDED BEYOND 00Z
TUESDAY...BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE BEHAVIOR OF WAVES BEFORE TRYING TO
GET TOO DETAILED ON TIMING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 36 47 38 46 / 30 30 10 40 50
VICTORIA 77 32 47 36 43 / 30 40 10 50 50
LAREDO 90 41 46 39 49 / 20 10 20 30 20
ALICE 87 37 46 37 45 / 20 20 10 30 50
ROCKPORT 74 34 48 39 47 / 20 30 10 50 50
COTULLA 86 37 49 37 47 / 20 10 10 30 20
KINGSVILLE 85 37 45 38 46 / 20 30 20 30 50
NAVY CORPUS 72 38 46 41 48 / 20 30 20 40 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1139 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.AVIATION...
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO. MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE AT BOTH TERMINALS FIRST 6 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
WE COULD SEE SOME BREAKS AT KLBB. LIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG
ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KCDS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF FREEZING PRECIP
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND
DURATION IS UNCERTAIN. HAVE ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE MOST
LIKELY PERIOD. LOWERED CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT KCDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY IMPROVE AT KLBB.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014/
UPDATE...
AN IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT IS SLICING THROUGH THE CWFA LATE SAT
EVENING. FOR EXAMPLE...TEMPS AT FRIONA WENT FROM MID 60S AT 7 PM TO
MID 20S AT 9 PM. FAIRLY GUSTY NERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WERE
ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA. WE/VE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS FASTER AND COLDER TREND.
UA ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE LIFT OVERSPREADING OUR NW ZONES WITHIN
SWIFT SW FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS SRN
CALI/AZ. DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...WE/VE SEEN SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY TRY TO DEVELOP BENEATH THIS AREA OF ASCENT AND ALSO
WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE...BUT SO FAR SOME LINGERING DRY AIR HAS
PREVENTED PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SFC.
SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE/EXPAND AFTER 06 UTC GIVEN STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME. WE HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE NW ZONES IN THE 06-12
UTC TIME FRAME. SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH COLDER NEAR-SURFACE
TEMPS BUT STILL A PRONOUNCED WARM-NOSE AROUND 800-700MB...WE NOW EXPECT
PRECIP-TYPE TO FAVOR FRZG RAIN ACROSS THIS REGION EVEN DURING THE
EARLY STAGES. ICE MAY START ACCUMULATING...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES EARLIER...SO WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE START TIME OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO MIDNIGHT/06 UTC...ALTHOUGH FOR THE
FIRST 6 HOURS WE THINK MOST OF THE IMPACT WILL BE FELT ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. AS THE PRECIP AREA SHIFTS
E-NEWD SUNDAY MORNING...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COUNTIES
FARTHER EAST.
GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT MID-LATE
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX/NM STATE LINE AS THE CORE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR. THIS BAND OF PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH AND SWEEP ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE
CWFA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND
PERHAPS SOME SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014/
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS ON THE DOOR OF KLBB AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AROUND
01 UTC WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE E-NE. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHED FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN THE
PARTICULARS OF AVIATION FORECAST IS LOW. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
LIKELY TO PERSIST AT KCDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAIN IF
THEY WILL DEVELOP INTO KLBB. ALSO...SHOWERS OF LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...POSSIBLY IMPACTING
EITHER OR BOTH TERMINALS IN THE ROUGHLY 08 UTC TO 18 UTC TIME
FRAME. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST AT KLBB...BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...
HARSH CHANGES AWAIT THE SOUTH PLAINS FOLLOWING OUR LATE SPRING-LIKE
WARMTH OF TODAY. ONE NEED ONLY LOOK AT THE 21Z STATE TEMPS THAT
RANGED FROM 91 IN BRADY TO JUST THE LOWER 20S IN PERRYTON...NOT FAR
FROM SNOW ALREADY OBSERVED IN THE OK PANHANDLE! STATIONARY FRONT AT
21Z STRETCHED FROM HAPPY SOUTHEAST TO FLOYDADA AND JAYTON. 88D
ALREADY SHOWS THIS FRONT EDGING SOUTHWESTWARD AND THIS TREND WILL
ONLY ACCELERATE IN THE COMING HOURS AS AN AXIS OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. RUC HAS BEEN QUITE SOLID
TODAY WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND INDICATES COLD FROPA AT LUBBOCK NEAR
SUNSET. TEMPORARY DILUTION OF STRATUS NEAR CHILDRESS SHOULD RESUME
IN THE COMING HOURS AND GRADUALLY EXPAND SWWD TONIGHT.
BRUNT OF THE FORECAST CHALLENGE DOES NOT CONCERN THE FRONT...BUT
RATHER AN AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS
SRN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A DECAYING UPPER LOW IN SRN
CALIFORNIA. LATEST MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS MOISTURE RATHER
WELL...BUT CONSIDERING THE PARENT LOW WILL BE DISSOLVING INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT...THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH
OF THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE CAN TRANSLATE INTO PRECIP FOR OUR AREA? WE
ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE SETUP...BUT DO
ACKNOWLEDGE A WINDOW FROM 12Z TO 18Z WHEN BOTH LIFT AND DEEPENING
SATURATION LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHT PRECIP. AS THE MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX TRACKS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NWRN COUNTIES BY SUN AFTN...LIFT
SHOULD BE BOLSTERED AS IT ENCOUNTERS ELEVATED FN FORCING TRAILING
OUR SURFACE FRONT. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX...OUR SERN
COUNTIES LOOK TO MISS OUT ON THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES...SO POPS HAVE
BEEN REDUCED HERE WHILE BUMPING UP TO LIKELY MENTION N-NW OF LUBBOCK.
PRECIP PHASE IS THE NEXT CHALLENGE...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS A WHOLE
INSIST ON KEEPING SOME DEGREE OF A WARM NOSE PRESENT ALOFT WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUSTAIN A WINTRY MIX LONGER THAN WE/D CARE TO SEE. WE
DID SIDE A BIT COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE AIRMASS INVOLVED...SO
THIS RESULTS IN A BROADER COVERAGE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
AND SLEET. ALL SNOW MAY BE HARD TO COME BY SO LONG AS WE RETAIN SOME
MELTING ALOFT. ALSO...THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE
SMALL AS THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY DEEPEN WITH TIME AND TIP THE SCALES
IN FAVOR OF SLEET. GROUND TEMPS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
ICING...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMS OF SLEET AND A THIN
GLAZE OF ICE ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED IN OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES WHERE WE HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY.
CLIMATOLOGY ALSO TENDS TO FAVOR THESE AREAS FOR WINTRY PRECIP IN
THESE SITUATIONS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST
THE ADVISORY IF NEEDED. LASTLY...WE CONTINUED TO SCALE BACK MAX
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY IN LIGHT OF ABUNDANT STRATUS AND DEEPENING COLD
AIR ADVECTION.
LONG TERM...
AFTER A QUICK ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER SUNDAY...THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY BENIGN...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TWO SEPARATE STORM
SYSTEMS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
BEGINNING TOMORROW EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED...HOWEVER THE COLD AIR WILL
UNFORTUNATELY LINGER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WHILE
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT AT RECOVERY ACROSS
AT LEAST THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON... TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
REGION...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST...TO THE LOW 30S IN THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
SUBDUED...GRADUAL MODERATION WILL BEGIN TUESDAY UNDER A REGIME OF
WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS...WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF STUBBORN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. FROM
HERE...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE STATUS QUO...MORE OR LESS...BY
SENDING A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE OPEN SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN WOULD LIKELY YIELD LITTLE MORE THAN
DRY...MILD COLD FRONTS ACROSS WEST TEXAS...AND AS OF NOW IS THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION GOING FORWARD. ON THE OTHER HAND... THE ECMWF
IS MUCH DEEPER AND SLOWER IN ITS DEPICTION OF UPPER WAVES ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. LIKEWISE...THIS
DEPICTION WOULD RESULT IN MUCH GREATER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IF IT WERE TO PAN OUT. FOR NOW THOUGH...THIS FORECAST WILL OPT TO
SIDE WITH THE DRIER GFS UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS IS REACHED AMONG
OPERATIONAL MODELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 22 33 16 48 26 / 40 60 0 0 0
TULIA 19 28 12 42 25 / 20 60 10 0 0
PLAINVIEW 20 30 12 43 25 / 10 60 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 29 34 18 45 26 / 10 60 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 26 31 15 43 25 / 10 50 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 37 46 19 48 27 / 10 40 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 32 36 18 46 26 / 10 40 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 18 25 9 33 22 / 10 40 10 0 0
SPUR 23 29 11 38 23 / 10 30 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 25 29 10 38 23 / 20 20 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>030.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1135 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING SUNDAY /09-16Z/. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN THE METROPLEX.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A DURANT OKLAHOMA /KDUA/ TO
DENTON /KDTO/ TO BRECKENRIDGE /KBKD/ LINE AS OF 05Z. THIS FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 06Z /THE
BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD/...AND THROUGH WACO AROUND 12Z.
THE VERY COLD AIR LAGS A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO FREEZING 15-16Z SUNDAY /9-10 AM CST/ IN THE
METROPLEX. AT THAT TIME...THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN.
THE FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND IF THIS HAPPENS...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL END UP BEING HEAVIER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. ALSO NOTE
THAT THE FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS ARE FOR THE GROUND...AND ICING ON
ELEVATED SURFACES WILL START AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH EARLY TO MID EVENING...SHUTTING
OFF 02-03Z.
WIND SPEEDS WITH THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS
BUT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30
KNOTS BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITHIN
A FEW HOURS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR
TOWARD 10Z AND SOME LIGHT FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5SM.
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO THE LOWER END MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON
BUT NOT RETURN TO VFR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT /PROBABLY
AROUND 09Z MONDAY/.
AT WACO...A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE
BACK IN 06-08Z AND QUICKLY LOWER TO IFR AROUND 09Z. THE ARCTIC
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND 12Z...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO FREEZING MID AFTERNOON /21Z/...THE RAIN WILL
BECOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MID
EVENING SUNDAY /03Z MONDAY/.
58
&&
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST IS STILL BEING UPDATED BUT HERE IS A QUICK DISCUSSION
REGARDING THE CHANGES THAT ARE BEING MADE TONIGHT...
AS ANTICIPATED...THE ARCTIC FRONT IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND HAS
ALREADY ENTERED OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
DRASTICALLY DROPPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WITH THE
TRUE ARCTIC AIR LAGGING A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE. AT 9
PM...THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM CLAYTON OKLAHOMA TO
SHERMAN TO BRECKENRIDGE TO SOUTH OF LUBBOCK. TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ARE NOW IN THE 50S BUT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ARE ALREADY IN THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE IN THE
UPPER 20S.
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT. BY 1 AM...THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR A CISCO TO DFW TO PARIS
LINE...REACHING KILLEEN...WACO AND CANTON AROUND 5 AM AND FINALLY
THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK DEPENDING ON
THE FRONTS LOCATION.
WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPES OR
CHANCES...BUT WITH THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...WILL ADD A
MENTION OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS....INCLUDING TEMPLE/KILLEEN. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
IMPACT BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THE NAM...TX TECH WRF...RAP...AND OUR LOCAL WRF ALL HAVE
REASONABLE PRECIPITATION TRENDS TOMORROW AND AM LEANING TOWARDS
THEIR SOLUTIONS. THEY HAVE PRECIP OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A LITTLE LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND AROUND MIDDAY. THEN THE
PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION...OCCURS
OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS IS WHEN WE
EXPECT THE HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
OCCUR AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THUNDERSLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN AS IS BUT HAVE UPGRADED
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...ALONG AND
EAST OF A BONHAM TO GREENVILLE LINE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE
COUNTIES COULD REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WARNING
WILL BE FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WARNING MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED WEST...POSSIBLY INTO THE DFW METROPLEX
AREA...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO EXPANDED
SOUTH ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE
NEW MODEL DATA TONIGHT BEFORE MAKING ANY MORE CHANGES TO THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING LOCATIONS/PRODUCTS.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014/
REGARDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS...WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE ADVISORY SOUTH TO A CISCO TO
CLIFTON TO ATHENS LINE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO
PLANO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS. POINTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO SEE IMPACTS FROM LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THESE IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ON ELEVATED SURFACES...IN PART DUE TO
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DETAILS
REGARDING THE FORECAST CONTINUE BELOW:
A 21Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BOUNDARY LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER WHERE MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES
IT WILL STALL OUT BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A
NOTABLE EXCEPTION SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SPIKED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG AN 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE.
WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO 80S ON CONSECUTIVE
DAYS FOR MOST POINTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...SOIL
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM...AND THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
OUR FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TO OUR NORTH...21Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA RANGED FROM THE LOWER TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 20S.
COMPARING THESE TEMPERATURES TO THE MORNING NAM 21Z FORECAST FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATED THAT THE NAM WAS RUNNING 8 TO 10
DEGREES TOO WARM WITH AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT.
UNFORTUNATELY THE NAM IS THE COLDEST OF THE POPULAR OPERATIONAL
FORECAST MODELS...SO THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT SHORT TERM SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH IN THE FORECAST MODELS MOVING
FORWARD. THE RAP IS DOING THE BEST JOB RESOLVING 21Z
TEMPERATURES...BUT THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE RAP
INGESTS NEW DATA EACH HOUR. AT ANY RATE...CONTINUED TO RELY UPON
THE NAM HEAVILY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...JUST LIKE THE
MIDNIGHT CREW...BECAUSE THE NAM IS THE COLDEST AND FASTEST WITH
THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TWO BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA (THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER...THEN THE ARCTIC FRONT TO THE
NORTH) IT WAS DIFFICULT TO TRACK THE SOUTHERN PROGRESS OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF THE RED RIVER FRONT...AND PARTIALLY DUE TO
NORTHERLY WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER NORTH THROUGH KANSAS
MASKING THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRULY ARCTIC AIRMASS.
BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AT 21Z THE FRONT APPEARED TO
BE NEAR A LINE FROM CANADIAN TX TO WATONGA OK TO PONCA CITY OK.
TRACKING THIS FRONT WILL ALSO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A FASTER
OR SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD HAVE DRASTIC IMPACTS ON OUR
FORECAST AND IMPACTS.
TO THE FORECAST...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE RED
RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE DFW AREA
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 AM CST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS WACO
AROUND 7 AM...AND THEN ACROSS PALESTINE AND TEMPLE/KILLEEN AN HOUR
LATER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORT WORTH
CWA BEFORE NOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES. PARAMETERS ARE THERE INDICATIVE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN PLACE CURRENTLY
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR STORMS AND KEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OF
AROUND 50 KTS. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE THE INTERSECTION OF THIS
PARAMETER SPACE IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...PROBABLY
SUPERCELLS OR POSSIBLY MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS ASSUMING STRONG FORCING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR RELEASING THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENERGY INTO STORMS.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE
CAPPING INVERSION IN THE 850 TO 800 MB LAYER...WHICH IS QUITE
STOUT AT 300 TO 400 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR SURFACE
BASED AIR PARCELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE THAT STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
LIFT AND COOL A LARGE CHUNK OF THIS CAPPING INVERSION...HOWEVER
THE CAP APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENTLY IN PLACE UNTIL 2-3 HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THIS BEING THE CASE...THERE WOULD BE NEARLY A ZERO
CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED STORMS AND TORNADOES ACROSS THE CWA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING. DAMAGING WIND MAY BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE ELEVATED
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ANY VERTICAL MOTIONS WITHIN THE FRONTAL
INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMPENED BY HIGH STABILITY. THAT
LEAVES A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL...WHICH CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. LEFT A MENTION OF
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
FOR TOMORROW MORNING AS A RESULT IN OUR GRAPHICAL HAZARD IMAGES.
BEHIND THE FRONT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO 80 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS CHANCES FOR ALL LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE
AT LEAST ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY HIGH
AT THIS TIME. MOST PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS AIR
PARCELS LIFTED FROM THE 900 TO 850 MB LAYER ARE CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST TO HAVE 3-500 J/KG OF POSITIVE CAPE. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNFORTUNATELY
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SPREADS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE CWA. THIS IS
UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THIS TIME WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES BUILDING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE DAY.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT...WE
SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO FREEZING RAIN...TO
FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET TO ALL SLEET THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING ICE
AND SLEET FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO
PLANO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AS THESE LOCATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SPEND MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING. FROM THIS LINE
SOUTH TO A LINE FROM CISCO TO CLIFTON TO ATHENS (THIS INCLUDES THE
DFW METROPLEX)...EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS OF ICE AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION SIMPLY BECAUSE THE SUB-FREEZING AIR IS SLOWER TO
BUILD IN...AND THESE AREAS SAW TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOUT 10 DEGREES
HIGHER TODAY THAN LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN
SO WARM OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. JUST LOOKING AT MODEL OUTPUT AND
FORECAST WATER EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AND CONVERTING THAT
DIRECTLY INTO ICE IS A VERY POOR ESTIMATE OF ICE ACCUMULATION FOR
THIS EVENT BECAUSE SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE CWA. IT WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT OF TIME FOR SOIL
TEMPERATURES TO FALL...MEANING THAT A LARGE PORTION OF ANY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS...EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING...WILL NOT STICK TO THE GROUND. ESTIMATING HOW MUCH
RAINFALL WILL RUN OFF VERSUS HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE AS ICE IS
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. AT THIS TIME FORECAST ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS
ARE APPROXIMATELY 25 PERCENT OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO FALL AS WATER
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.
WHETHER THIS IS AGGRESSIVE OR CONSERVATIVE WILL DEPEND AT LEAST
PARTIALLY ON HOW FAST WE FALL BELOW FREEZING BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. FALLING BELOW FREEZING FASTER THAN EXPECTED WILL RESULT IN
GREATER IMPACTS ON AVERAGE. WE WILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND IF IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
GET COLDER SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER...WE MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE SOME
PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY INTO A WINTER STORM WARNING BEFORE SUNDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS ICE ACCUMULATION
AND IMPACTS MAINLY RELEGATED TO ELEVATED SURFACES...WHICH IS WHY A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AND NOT A WINTER STORM
WARNING AT THIS TIME. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONE TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH...MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
WITH MOST ATTENTION FOCUSED ON SUNDAYS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINTER
WEATHER...HERE IS A QUICK SUMMARY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST:
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL
NIGHT...MEANING ANY RESIDUAL WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE UP
CAUSING ADDITIONAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
MONDAY MORNING WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE ZERO TO MINUS 5 DEGREES
FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...ASSUMING THIS DOES NOT CHANGE IN FUTURE
FORECASTS...WE WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE VERY COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES.
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS OF THE DAY. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CLOSELY IN CASE IMPACTS ARE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. CURRENTLY...ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.
WE WILL WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT HAVE LOW RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH YET ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE REGION. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AT
THIS TIME.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 36 35 16 36 24 / 60 80 20 0 10
WACO, TX 59 53 20 41 29 / 30 80 20 0 10
PARIS, TX 35 35 11 34 22 / 60 80 80 0 10
DENTON, TX 32 32 14 34 21 / 60 80 20 0 10
MCKINNEY, TX 33 34 13 34 19 / 60 80 30 0 10
DALLAS, TX 38 37 16 37 25 / 60 80 20 0 10
TERRELL, TX 44 42 15 36 23 / 50 80 50 0 10
CORSICANA, TX 59 57 18 38 26 / 30 80 30 0 10
TEMPLE, TX 66 58 21 42 30 / 20 80 20 0 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 32 32 14 36 23 / 60 80 10 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
TXZ115>123-129>135-144>146.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ094-
095-105>107.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ094-095-
105>107.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
TXZ091>093-100>104.
&&
$$
58/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1237 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING CHANGING RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT QUICKLY TO SNOW AND SLEET MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID-WEEK BEFORE A STRONG STORM SYSTEMS MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
AND/OR A WINTRY MIX EVENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST SUNDAY...
A COMBINATION PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE EAST AND INCREASING WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS HELPING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD
TRENDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE
INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA BY A FEW MORE DEGREES.
AREAS NEAR DANVILLE WILL BE NEAR 70 DEGREES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE WEST...WE THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS
STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS AREA IS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SO ONCE IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY BLUEFIELD TO LEXINGTON...THERE
LIKELY WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN THE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THEN REBOUND A LITTLE BEFORE THEN NEXT WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS
SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE GUSTS
CURRENTLY ARE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.
AS OF 935 AM EST SUNDAY...
MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ALREADY HAVE REACHED THE LOWER 50S OVER
SOME PARTS OF THE AREA. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF
AREAS THAT START GETTING RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED EXPECTED HIGHS
BY A FEW DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS. REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
RAIN...THE FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT ONSET IN THE NORTH TWO TO
THREE HOURS SLOWER THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED BASED UPON THE LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND THE
RNK WRF-ARW MODELS.
AS OF 530 AM EST SUNDAY...
VERY COMPLICATED WINTER EVENT TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. FOR TODAY...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN WV BY THE END OF THE DAY
FIGHTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. OVERNIGHT...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
COLD/DENSE ARCTIC AIR WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
PA DOWN THROUGH VA EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MEANWHILE...AN
EXTENSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS EVIDENT FROM THE SW STATES EXTENDING
ENE TOWARD PA/OH...ANCHORED FROM A DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVING
EASTWARD FROM THE SW U.S. WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE ARCTIC FRONT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD. THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES. WAVES OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY...SLOWLY PULLING THE FRONT AND THE ATTENDANT DENSE
ARCTIC FURTHER SOUTHWARD...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA
BOUNDARY THROUGH 06Z. OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH POTENTIALLY UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN BY 06Z IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE WV COUNTIES INTO BATH COUNTY VA.
SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK THE ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN
GREENBRIER...CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH ARCTIC AIR SURGING IN FROM THE NW TOWARD THE ALLEGHANY FRONT
THROUGH SUMMERS/MERCER/MONROE...AND THEN ALSO FROM THE NE DOWN
THROUGH THE PIEDMONT. BETWEEN 12Z-14Z...ALL PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
I-64 SHOULD BE SNOW...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET POSSIBLE DURING
THE CHANGEOVER. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CORE OF THE BEST
PCPN TRACKING ESE ROUGHLY FROM LWB AT 12Z TO LYH BY 15Z. THE FINAL
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SE OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...TAKING THE LAST REMNANTS OF THE PCPN WITH IT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. UPSLOPE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AS THE
SFC WINDS VEER QUICKLY AROUND TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND LARGE SFC HIGH MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD PA
UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS
ANOMALOUS AND HAS RESULTED IN AN ANOMALOUS WARNING/ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION. AFTER EXTENSIVE COORDINATION ONCE AGAIN WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND IN CONSIDERATION OF THE ABOVE
SCENARIO...HAVE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS WINTER STORM WATCH TO A
WARNING AND ADDED SEVERAL PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE COMBINED
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MEET WARNING CRITERIA. THUS...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM HINTON...TO ROANOKE...TO LYNCHBURG...TO
CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE...ALL COUNTIES ARE UNDER A WARNING...WITH AN
EARLIER START TIME FOR THOSE WEST OF I-81. SOUTH OF THIS
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SW VA AND NW NC...HAVE POSTED AN
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY...WHERE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. COUNTIES THAT STILL MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING INCLUDE HALIFAX AND DANVILLE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. TEMPS WILL COOL LAST IN THE SW AREAS AND PCPN
WILL BE THE LEAST THERE AS WELL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL NOT ALLOW SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO REACH THE SW COUNTIES
BEFORE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING LATE MONDAY MORNING...THEN THE
PCPN EXITS TO THE EAST. EVEN PATRICK AND SURRY COUNTY ARE
QUESTIONABLE FOR MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND VERY COLD WITH A STRONG NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND MONDAY. MODEL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS AS FAR SOUTH AS DAN/LYH/ROA BY AFTERNOON SEEMED
INCREDULOUS...BUT POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR.
HAVE RAISED THESE UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN CONSIDERATION OF TIME OF
YEAR.
FINALLY...STORM TOTAL QPF STILL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY 1 INCH OR
LESS...AND WITH POTENTIALLY 1/2 OF THIS FALLING AS FROZEN
PCPN...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...
REMAINING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...LIKELY TO BE CONFINED EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AFTER SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THAT THEN LEAVES US
TO DEAL WITH THE NOT-SO-SPRING-LIKE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BUILDING
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A 1030+ ARCTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC TO BUTT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN
A CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN. THIS AIRMASS WILL USHER IN EXCEPTIONALLY
COLD AIR FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU CONSIDER THE
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH NEW SNOW COVER...DECREASING WIND SPEEDS AND
DECREASING CLOUD COVER...EXPECT MONDAY NIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. FORECAST
MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT THE ARCTIC AIR IS VERY
SHALLOW...SUCH THAT MANY OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL BE WARMER THAN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY BOTTOMS AND THE PIEDMONT.
THE ARCTIC WEDGE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. FORECAST MODELS TYPICALLY UNDERESTIMATE THE
STRENGTH OF THESE ARCTIC AIRMASSES...PRODUCING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
TOO WARM. CONSIDERING THAT LITTLE MELTING OF SNOW WILL TAKE PLACE IN
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...HAVE UNDERCUT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE THE WEDGE WILL BE STRONGEST...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL WARMING
WILL STILL TAKE PLACE.
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING FOR TUESDAY...KEEPING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CONFINED IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S
SOUTH...WHILE INCREASED SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S...WITH WARMER RIDGE TOPS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...
A DEVELOPING GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST ON THURSDAY...THEN PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS AND ECM CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH THE GULF LOW ALONG
WITH ITS TRACK AND TIMING. THE GFS DEVELOPS A COASTAL LOW OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLIER AND LIFTS ITS NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS THE GULF LOW EAST
TOWARDS FLORIDA THEN PIVOTS NORTHEAST. THE ECM IS MUCH DEEPER AND
FORMS A CLOSED LOW WHICH MOVES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES A CAROLINA NOR-
EASTER. LEANED TOWARDS HPCGUIDE ENSEMBLE FOR POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS GULF SYSTEM. HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY MORNING AND
TAPER OFF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.
PTYPE REMAINS A TOUGH CALL BECAUSE OF TIMING ISSUES AND THERE ARE
STILL NUMEROUS QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM. DETAILS OF
THE TRACK...QPF AND TEMPERATURES PROFILES WILL BECOME CLEARER WITH
TIME. THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE RAIN AND SNOW WITH
THIS WINTER EVENT GENERALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ACCUMULATING
SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION...ENABLING
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST SUNDAY...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A SHARP EDGE BETWEEN MVFR CEILINGS AT BLF
AND LWB AND VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST. THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS PUSH EAST AND SPREAD
THE CLOUD COVER TO THE REMAINING TAF SITES BY EARLY EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AT BLF/LWB/BCB AND THIS EVENING
AT ROA/LYH/DAN. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS/VISBYS TO TRANSITION TO IFR
CEILINGS/VISBYS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS AT BLF/LWB AS EARLY AS 23Z...BCB/ROA/LYH BY
05Z AND DAN AROUND 09Z. ONCE THE IFR CEILINGS/VISBYS TAKE HOLD THEY
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES AT ROA/LYH...6-8 INCHES AT LWB...2-4
INCHES AT BLF/BCB AND 1-2 INCHES AT DAN.
ADJUSTED THE WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON AS GUSTS OF 15-30KTS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT MOST OF THE TAF
LOCATIONS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AND HOLD IN THAT POSITION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION EXITS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING AND ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. ALL TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES AT THE END OF THE WEEK
WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISBYS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ018-
022>024-034-035-045>047-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ019-
020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
VAZ007-010>014-016-017-032-033-043-044-058.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ003>006.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ043>045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...DS/RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1228 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING CHANGING RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT QUICKLY TO SNOW AND SLEET MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID-WEEK BEFORE A STRONG STORM SYSTEMS MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
AND/OR A WINTRY MIX EVENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST SUNDAY...
A COMBINATION PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE EAST AND INCREASING WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS HELPING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD
TRENDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE
INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA BY A FEW MORE DEGREES.
AREAS NEAR DANVILLE WILL BE NEAR 70 DEGREES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE WEST...WE THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS
STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS AREA IS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SO ONCE IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY BLUEFIELD TO LEXINGTON...THERE
LIKELY WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN THE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THEN REBOUND A LITTLE BEFORE THEN NEXT WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS
SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE GUSTS
CURRENTLY ARE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.
AS OF 935 AM EST SUNDAY...
MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ALREADY HAVE REACHED THE LOWER 50S OVER
SOME PARTS OF THE AREA. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF
AREAS THAT START GETTING RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED EXPECTED HIGHS
BY A FEW DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS. REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
RAIN...THE FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT ONSET IN THE NORTH TWO TO
THREE HOURS SLOWER THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED BASED UPON THE LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND THE
RNK WRF-ARW MODELS.
AS OF 530 AM EST SUNDAY...
VERY COMPLICATED WINTER EVENT TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. FOR TODAY...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN WV BY THE END OF THE DAY
FIGHTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. OVERNIGHT...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
COLD/DENSE ARCTIC AIR WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
PA DOWN THROUGH VA EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MEANWHILE...AN
EXTENSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS EVIDENT FROM THE SW STATES EXTENDING
ENE TOWARD PA/OH...ANCHORED FROM A DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVING
EASTWARD FROM THE SW U.S. WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE ARCTIC FRONT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD. THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES. WAVES OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY...SLOWLY PULLING THE FRONT AND THE ATTENDANT DENSE
ARCTIC FURTHER SOUTHWARD...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA
BOUNDARY THROUGH 06Z. OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH POTENTIALLY UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN BY 06Z IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE WV COUNTIES INTO BATH COUNTY VA.
SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK THE ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN
GREENBRIER...CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH ARCTIC AIR SURGING IN FROM THE NW TOWARD THE ALLEGHANY FRONT
THROUGH SUMMERS/MERCER/MONROE...AND THEN ALSO FROM THE NE DOWN
THROUGH THE PIEDMONT. BETWEEN 12Z-14Z...ALL PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
I-64 SHOULD BE SNOW...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET POSSIBLE DURING
THE CHANGEOVER. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CORE OF THE BEST
PCPN TRACKING ESE ROUGHLY FROM LWB AT 12Z TO LYH BY 15Z. THE FINAL
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SE OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...TAKING THE LAST REMNANTS OF THE PCPN WITH IT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. UPSLOPE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AS THE
SFC WINDS VEER QUICKLY AROUND TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND LARGE SFC HIGH MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD PA
UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS
ANOMALOUS AND HAS RESULTED IN AN ANOMALOUS WARNING/ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION. AFTER EXTENSIVE COORDINATION ONCE AGAIN WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND IN CONSIDERATION OF THE ABOVE
SCENARIO...HAVE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS WINTER STORM WATCH TO A
WARNING AND ADDED SEVERAL PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE COMBINED
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MEET WARNING CRITERIA. THUS...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM HINTON...TO ROANOKE...TO LYNCHBURG...TO
CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE...ALL COUNTIES ARE UNDER A WARNING...WITH AN
EARLIER START TIME FOR THOSE WEST OF I-81. SOUTH OF THIS
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SW VA AND NW NC...HAVE POSTED AN
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY...WHERE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. COUNTIES THAT STILL MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING INCLUDE HALIFAX AND DANVILLE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. TEMPS WILL COOL LAST IN THE SW AREAS AND PCPN
WILL BE THE LEAST THERE AS WELL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL NOT ALLOW SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO REACH THE SW COUNTIES
BEFORE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING LATE MONDAY MORNING...THEN THE
PCPN EXITS TO THE EAST. EVEN PATRICK AND SURRY COUNTY ARE
QUESTIONABLE FOR MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND VERY COLD WITH A STRONG NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND MONDAY. MODEL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS AS FAR SOUTH AS DAN/LYH/ROA BY AFTERNOON SEEMED
INCREDULOUS...BUT POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR.
HAVE RAISED THESE UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN CONSIDERATION OF TIME OF
YEAR.
FINALLY...STORM TOTAL QPF STILL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY 1 INCH OR
LESS...AND WITH POTENTIALLY 1/2 OF THIS FALLING AS FROZEN
PCPN...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...
REMAINING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...LIKELY TO BE CONFINED EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AFTER SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THAT THEN LEAVES US
TO DEAL WITH THE NOT-SO-SPRING-LIKE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BUILDING
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A 1030+ ARCTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC TO BUTT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN
A CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN. THIS AIRMASS WILL USHER IN EXCEPTIONALLY
COLD AIR FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU CONSIDER THE
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH NEW SNOW COVER...DECREASING WIND SPEEDS AND
DECREASING CLOUD COVER...EXPECT MONDAY NIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. FORECAST
MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT THE ARCTIC AIR IS VERY
SHALLOW...SUCH THAT MANY OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL BE WARMER THAN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY BOTTOMS AND THE PIEDMONT.
THE ARCTIC WEDGE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. FORECAST MODELS TYPICALLY UNDERESTIMATE THE
STRENGTH OF THESE ARCTIC AIRMASSES...PRODUCING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
TOO WARM. CONSIDERING THAT LITTLE MELTING OF SNOW WILL TAKE PLACE IN
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...HAVE UNDERCUT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE THE WEDGE WILL BE STRONGEST...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL WARMING
WILL STILL TAKE PLACE.
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING FOR TUESDAY...KEEPING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CONFINED IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S
SOUTH...WHILE INCREASED SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S...WITH WARMER RIDGE TOPS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...
A DEVELOPING GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST ON THURSDAY...THEN PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS AND ECM CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH THE GULF LOW ALONG
WITH ITS TRACK AND TIMING. THE GFS DEVELOPS A COASTAL LOW OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLIER AND LIFTS ITS NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS THE GULF LOW EAST
TOWARDS FLORIDA THEN PIVOTS NORTHEAST. THE ECM IS MUCH DEEPER AND
FORMS A CLOSED LOW WHICH MOVES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES A CAROLINA NOR-
EASTER. LEANED TOWARDS HPCGUIDE ENSEMBLE FOR POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS GULF SYSTEM. HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY MORNING AND
TAPER OFF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.
PTYPE REMAINS A TOUGH CALL BECAUSE OF TIMING ISSUES AND THERE ARE
STILL NUMEROUS QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM. DETAILS OF
THE TRACK...QPF AND TEMPERATURES PROFILES WILL BECOME CLEARER WITH
TIME. THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE RAIN AND SNOW WITH
THIS WINTER EVENT GENERALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ACCUMULATING
SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION...ENABLING
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM EST SUNDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE POOLED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...JUST CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AS OF
5 AM SUNDAY. EXPECT THESE MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT AND SCATTER
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL BRIEFLY ACROSS CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS
DELAY WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
POSSIBLY WITH A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE
FRONT RESUMES ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH...AFFECTING LWB AND BLF WITH
OCCASIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RAPID PUSH SOUTHWARD BEGINNING AROUND
03/00Z...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN ITS WAKE. DAN WILL BE LAST TO EXPERIENCE
FROPA...OCCURRING SHORTLY AFTER 03/06Z. AS ARCTIC AIR BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE RAIN CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN...BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES COLD ENOUGH
FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. AT THIS TIME...ONLY LWB
AND BLF ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE WINTRY PRECIPITATION BY
03/12Z...WITH ROA...BCB AND LYH EXPECTED TO SEE A CHANGE OVER
SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND DAN BEFORE 13/18Z.
3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT DAN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES AT DAN.
PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY EXIT THE FORECAST REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND
ALLOWS FOR VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TRACKS ALONG THE
EAST COAST.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ018-
022>024-034-035-045>047-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ019-
020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
VAZ007-010>014-016-017-032-033-043-044-058.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ003>006.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ043>045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...DS/RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
943 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING CHANGING RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT QUICKLY TO SNOW AND SLEET MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID-WEEK BEFORE A STRONG STORM SYSTEMS MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
AND/OR A WINTRY MIX EVENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 935 AM EST SUNDAY...
MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE APPORACHING
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ALREADY HAVE REACHED THE LOWER 50S OVER
SOME PARTS OF THE AREA. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF
AREAS THAT START GETTING RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED EXPECTED HIGHS
BY A FEW DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS. REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
RAIN...THE FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT ONSET IN THE NORTH TWO TO
THREE HOURS SLOWER THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED BASED UPON THE LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND THE
RNK WRF-ARW MODELS.
AS OF 530 AM EST SUNDAY...
VERY COMPLICATED WINTER EVENT TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. FOR TODAY...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN WV BY THE END OF THE DAY
FIGHTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. OVERNIGHT...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
COLD/DENSE ARCTIC AIR WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
PA DOWN THROUGH VA EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MEANWHILE...AN
EXTENSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS EVIDENT FROM THE SW STATES EXTENDING
ENE TOWARD PA/OH...ANCHORED FROM A DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVING
EASTWARD FROM THE SW U.S. WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE ARCTIC FRONT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD. THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES. WAVES OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY...SLOWLY PULLING THE FRONT AND THE ATTENDANT DENSE
ARCTIC FURTHER SOUTHWARD...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA
BOUNDARY THROUGH 06Z. OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH POTENTIALLY UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN BY 06Z IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE WV COUNTIES INTO BATH COUNTY VA.
SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK THE ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN
GREENBRIER...CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH ARCTIC AIR SURGING IN FROM THE NW TOWARD THE ALLEGHANY FRONT
THROUGH SUMMERS/MERCER/MONROE...AND THEN ALSO FROM THE NE DOWN
THROUGH THE PIEDMONT. BETWEEN 12Z-14Z...ALL PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
I-64 SHOULD BE SNOW...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET POSSIBLE DURING
THE CHANGEOVER. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CORE OF THE BEST
PCPN TRACKING ESE ROUGHLY FROM LWB AT 12Z TO LYH BY 15Z. THE FINAL
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SE OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...TAKING THE LAST REMNANTS OF THE PCPN WITH IT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. UPSLOPE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AS THE
SFC WINDS VEER QUICKLY AROUND TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND LARGE SFC HIGH MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD PA
UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS
ANOMALOUS AND HAS RESULTED IN AN ANOMALOUS WARNING/ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION. AFTER EXTENSIVE COORDINATION ONCE AGAIN WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND IN CONSIDERATION OF THE ABOVE
SCENARIO...HAVE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS WINTER STORM WATCH TO A
WARNING AND ADDED SEVERAL PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE COMBINED
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MEET WARNING CRITERIA. THUS...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM HINTON...TO ROANOKE...TO LYNCHBURG...TO
CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE...ALL COUNTIES ARE UNDER A WARNING...WITH AN
EARLIER START TIME FOR THOSE WEST OF I-81. SOUTH OF THIS
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SW VA AND NW NC...HAVE POSTED AN
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY...WHERE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. COUNTIES THAT STILL MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING INCLUDE HALIFAX AND DANVILLE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. TEMPS WILL COOL LAST IN THE SW AREAS AND PCPN
WILL BE THE LEAST THERE AS WELL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL NOT ALLOW SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO REACH THE SW COUNTIES
BEFORE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING LATE MONDAY MORNING...THEN THE
PCPN EXITS TO THE EAST. EVEN PATRICK AND SURRY COUNTY ARE
QUESTIONABLE FOR MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND VERY COLD WITH A STRONG NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND MONDAY. MODEL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS AS FAR SOUTH AS DAN/LYH/ROA BY AFTERNOON SEEMED
INCREDULOUS...BUT POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR.
HAVE RAISED THESE UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN CONSIDERATION OF TIME OF
YEAR.
FINALLY...STORM TOTAL QPF STILL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY 1 INCH OR
LESS...AND WITH POTENTIALLY 1/2 OF THIS FALLING AS FROZEN
PCPN...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...
REMAINING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...LIKELY TO BE CONFINED EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AFTER SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THAT THEN LEAVES US
TO DEAL WITH THE NOT-SO-SPRING-LIKE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BUILDING
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A 1030+ ARCTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC TO BUTT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN
A CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN. THIS AIRMASS WILL USHER IN EXCEPTIONALLY
COLD AIR FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU CONSIDER THE
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH NEW SNOW COVER...DECREASING WIND SPEEDS AND
DECREASING CLOUD COVER...EXPECT MONDAY NIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. FORECAST
MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT THE ARCTIC AIR IS VERY
SHALLOW...SUCH THAT MANY OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL BE WARMER THAN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY BOTTOMS AND THE PIEDMONT.
THE ARCTIC WEDGE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. FORECAST MODELS TYPICALLY UNDERESTIMATE THE
STRENGTH OF THESE ARCTIC AIRMASSES...PRODUCING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
TOO WARM. CONSIDERING THAT LITTLE MELTING OF SNOW WILL TAKE PLACE IN
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...HAVE UNDERCUT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE THE WEDGE WILL BE STRONGEST...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL WARMING
WILL STILL TAKE PLACE.
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING FOR TUESDAY...KEEPING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CONFINED IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S
SOUTH...WHILE INCREASED SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S...WITH WARMER RIDGE TOPS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...
A DEVELOPING GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST ON THURSDAY...THEN PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS AND ECM CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH THE GULF LOW ALONG
WITH ITS TRACK AND TIMING. THE GFS DEVELOPS A COASTAL LOW OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLIER AND LIFTS ITS NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS THE GULF LOW EAST
TOWARDS FLORIDA THEN PIVOTS NORTHEAST. THE ECM IS MUCH DEEPER AND
FORMS A CLOSED LOW WHICH MOVES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES A CAROLINA NOR-
EASTER. LEANED TOWARDS HPCGUIDE ENSEMBLE FOR POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS GULF SYSTEM. HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY MORNING AND
TAPER OFF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.
PTYPE REMAINS A TOUGH CALL BECAUSE OF TIMING ISSUES AND THERE ARE
STILL NUMEROUS QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM. DETAILS OF
THE TRACK...QPF AND TEMPERATURES PROFILES WILL BECOME CLEARER WITH
TIME. THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE RAIN AND SNOW WITH
THIS WINTER EVENT GENERALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ACCUMULATING
SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION...ENABLING
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM EST SUNDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE POOLED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...JUST CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AS OF
5 AM SUNDAY. EXPECT THESE MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT AND SCATTER
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL BRIEFLY ACROSS CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS
DELAY WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
POSSIBLY WITH A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE
FRONT RESUMES ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH...AFFECTING LWB AND BLF WITH
OCCASIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RAPID PUSH SOUTHWARD BEGINNING AROUND
03/00Z...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN ITS WAKE. DAN WILL BE LAST TO EXPERIENCE
FROPA...OCCURRING SHORTLY AFTER 03/06Z. AS ARCTIC AIR BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE RAIN CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN...BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES COLD ENOUGH
FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. AT THIS TIME...ONLY LWB
AND BLF ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE WINTRY PRECIPITATION BY
03/12Z...WITH ROA...BCB AND LYH EXPECTED TO SEE A CHANGE OVER
SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND DAN BEFORE 13/18Z.
3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT DAN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES AT DAN.
PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY EXIT THE FORECAST REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND
ALLOWS FOR VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TRACKS ALONG THE
EAST COAST.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ018-
022>024-034-035-045>047-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ019-
020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
VAZ007-010>014-016-017-032-033-043-044-058.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ003>006.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ043>045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...DS/RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1229 PM PST Sun Mar 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A robust and very moist series of storms will move through the
Pacific Northwest beginning today and continuing through
Thursday. This will result in widespread moderate snow today and
Monday. Each additional storm will be warmer than the last with
snow turning to rain at most locations except the higher mountains
between Tuesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update #4. Winter weather advisory was allowed to expire for the
L-C valley area. Temperatures have generally warmed to 32F or
warmer, so freezing rain isn`t expected to be a problem except in
localized cold pockets.
Radar shows an east-west band of heavier snow from Wilbur to St
Maries, that will move through the Spokane/CdA metro area over the
next hour. This band will probably put down a quick inch of snow.
Pendleton and Portland radars still showing good coverage, so more
snow to come. Comparison of the radar to the HRRR model shows that
the HRRR may be about an hour slow. So we could see the front
arrive at the WA/ID border by 7pm, which would end most of the
snow/rain over Washington. RJ
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Precipitation will develop over the TAF sites today and remain
steady through the afternoon and early evening. Expect IFR to LIFR
conditions through this event at the GEG/SFF/COE/MWH/EAT TAF
sites. As the snow ends this evening, we expect to see some -fzdz
for at least a few hours. To the south, PUW/LWS will have a
freezing rain situation with some IFR this afternoon, but then
improving a bit as the precipitation becomes all rain. RJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 22 22 35 33 43 34 / 100 100 50 50 50 30
Coeur d`Alene 21 21 34 32 43 33 / 100 100 70 60 50 50
Pullman 34 34 40 37 46 36 / 100 100 60 60 70 50
Lewiston 40 38 47 42 52 40 / 90 100 60 60 60 40
Colville 27 24 32 31 45 34 / 70 90 80 50 50 30
Sandpoint 18 18 31 30 41 33 / 100 100 90 70 60 60
Kellogg 24 24 33 32 40 33 / 100 100 90 80 100 70
Moses Lake 27 25 38 35 51 36 / 100 90 30 20 20 20
Wenatchee 24 23 33 33 47 36 / 80 100 40 40 20 30
Omak 27 25 28 28 46 35 / 10 100 80 30 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM PST this evening for Idaho
Palouse.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for Northern
Panhandle.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM PST Monday for Central Panhandle
Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for Okanogan
Highlands-Okanogan Valley.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM PST this evening for Washington
Palouse.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Moses
Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee
Area.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for Northeast
Mountains.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM PST Monday for Spokane Area.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Monday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
531 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF A BAND OF SNOW IS ALREADY APPROACHING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ALONG A MID-LEVEL FGEN/WARM ADVECTION ZONE. DISTANCE/SPEED TOOL
HAS THIS BAND OF SNOW MOVING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN
23-00Z THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SNOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST...SNOW
TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE ESE TO THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING AND REACH LAKE MICHIGAN BY
12Z TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE WAVES...FORCING IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...700-500MB FGEN AND WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PUSH THE AREA
OF SNOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW THIS WILL
EVOLVE...BUT SOME MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY AREA OF SNOW MAY ALSO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA THIS EVENING ALONG THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THEN MERGE WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF
SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...THINK ALL
AREAS WILL SEE DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THOUGH PIN POINTING
WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL IS RATHER DIFFICULT DUE TO THE
UNORGANIZED FORCING. ADDING TO THE COMPLEXITY IS A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGH END SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. BEST
GUESS IS NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...FROM TOMAHAWK
TO STURGEON BAY WHERE HAVE ABOUT 2 INCHES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY...AND BE WINDING DOWN
TOWARDS THE START OF THE MORNING COMMUTE...SO DO NOT PLAN ON ANY
ADVISORIES. BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT SLICK ROADS TONIGHT
AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST. BUT EVEN
AFTER THIS TIME...THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE OVERHEAD
AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE LEFTOVER
THROUGH 700-600MB UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE THE
SHORTWAVES PULLING OUT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL REACH UP TO A
HALF INCH...AND MUCH OF THAT WILL COME EARLY IN THE MORNING. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THERE WARMING TREND
AND REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
CONTINUED NEAR ZONAL-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN U.S.
THIS PERIOD. SPREAD SEEN IN MODELS/ENSEMBLES LATER PERIODS WITH HOW
HANDLE ENERGY COMING INTO PACIFIC COAST AND EFFECTS ON UPPER RIDGE.
TRENDS ARE FOR TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO NORMS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL BLEND FOR NEXT MONDAY SHOWING UPPER 30S
ATTM. A REAL CONTRAST FROM TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AT ISSUE AGAIN TUE NIGHT AS WEAK WAVE MOVES
THROUGH FLOW. WAA SETS UP OVER BAROCLINIC ZONE TO BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN HALF OF WI. WEAK FGEN/JET SUPPORT...PASSES MAINLY SOUTH
OF CWA. AGAIN MODELS TRENDING TOWARD DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HAVE TIGHTENED GRADIENT UP FOR SNOW-NO SNOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO NORTHERN WI. KEPT CHANCE POPS
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
NEXT ISSUE WITH UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
FEATURE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CANADA. MODELS SHOWING A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH FOCUS OF PCPN CHANCES THU OVER NORTHWEST WI AND
NORTHEAST MN...MOVING INTO CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
LIGHT SNOW WILL ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 FEET IN MOST PLACES WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES.
THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
BECOMING MVFR OR VFR BY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE DRY AND FLUFFY
AND ACCUMULAT TO 1 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST PLACES.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......RDM
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COLD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE HIGH...WITH READINGS A
FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ZERO DEGREE MARK. WIND CHILL
VALUES REMAIN IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AT MANY LOCATIONS OVER EAST-
CENTRAL/CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHER THAN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH
OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...THOUGH CIRRUS FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM
STORM SYSTEM IS CROSSING THE BORDER INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. OTHER
LOW STRATUS IS DRIFTING SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN SHORELINE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS ARE THE MAIN
FOCUS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES EAST TONITE.
TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE MOISTURE THAT IS APPROACHING NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR DRYING UP AS IT RUNS INTO THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW FEW TO SCT SKY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN CASE A LITTLE MOISTURE IS PICKED UP OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE NAM IS DEVELOPING A LAKE INDUCED
SURFACE TROUGH UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...MAY SEE SCT LAKE CLOUDS MOVE JUST INLAND ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD FLURRIES
INTO THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE THAT HAPPENING. THE OTHER ISSUE
IS TEMPS/WIND CHILL HEADLINES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AND THEN SLACKENS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH. CONDITIONS ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
DECOUPLING THAN LAST NIGHT AND WILL SHOW THAT TREND OCCURRING MAINLY
AFTER 06Z. THIS MAKES FOR A DILEMMA IN REGARDS TO WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...WHICH REQUIRE AT 3 KTS OF WIND. THINK THERE COULD BE A
FEW HOUR PERIOD OF WIND CHILL CRITERIA BEING MET BEFORE WINDS BECOME
CALM WITH VALUES FALLING BETWEEN 20 TO 30 BELOW. TOUGH TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT HEADLINES WITH SUCH A SHORT DURATION EVENT...EVEN
THOUGH THE CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE TANKING TEMPERATURES. AFTER
COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO ISSUE WIND CHILLS
HEADLINES TO KEEP THE MAP PRETTY. THE MIDNIGHT CREW CAN CANCEL
EARLY IF DESIRED. DROPPED LOWS BY PERHAPS A DEGREE IN SPOTS.
MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. UNDER PLENTY OF SUN...TEMPS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE LOWER TEENS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
NEAR ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES...
WHILE REMAINING BELOW NORM...MODERATE FROM WHAT WE HAVE TODAY.
PATTERN AMPLIFIES SOME TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGE REBUILDING
OVER THE WEST COAST AND TROFFING SETTING UP AGAIN OVER CENTRAL
U.S. IN LATER PERIODS FEATURE TO WATCH...SIG SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SYSTEM AND FOLLOW ON WEAKER WAVES TO
PUSH COLD FRONT THROUGH STATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCE
FOR PCPN THROUGH PERIOD. GULF MOISTURE NOT A PLAYER...SO AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO LOW
TO MID 20S.
IN NEAR TERM...TWO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO
TUE AND AGAIN TUE EVENING. SHORTWAVES COMBINE WITH WEAK WAA AND
JET ENERGY THESE PERIODS...WITH TUE NIGHT SYSTEM AFFECTING MAINLY
SOUTH PART OF CWA. FOR MON NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
YESTERDAY AND TODAY WITH CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING WEAK LIFT THROUGH
DEEP AREA OF GOOD DENDRICTIC GROWTH RATES. HAVE BUMPED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP GIVEN EXPECTED 20 TO 1 SNOW RATIOS. A GOOD INCH
TO UP TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WI LATE TUE
NIGHT...WED MORN...CLEARING SKIES OUT WED. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS EXPECTED WILL BRING SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY TODAY OF LAKE MI SHOWING
LIMITED OPEN WATER...SO WILL NOT PUT INTO GRIDS AT THIS TIME. GFS
STILL ODD MODEL OUT BEING QUICKER WITH NEXT PLAINS SYSTEM BRINGING
PCPN INTO REGION WED NIGHT. HAVE STAYED WITH MAJORITY WITH SLOWER
TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TONIGHT SINCE A FEW LAKE CLOUDS COULD
DRIFT INLAND. SCT VFR LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER N-C
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THEY WILL REACH
INTO RHINELANDER. WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
WIZ013-020>022-031-037>040-045-048>050-073-074.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR WIZ005-010>012-018-019-030-035-036.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1202 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING ALOFT...MID-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS OCCURRING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL FGEN IN THIS CONFLUENCE ZONE WITH HELP FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE NE/SD IS GENERATING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA TO WESTERN MICHIGAN. ACROSS THE CWA...THIS SNOW IS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 29 AND MAY SEE A HALF INCH OF ACCUM FROM
WAUTOMA TO MANITOWOC THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
SNOW BAND ARE COLD ADVECTING A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS OUT OF THE
1045MB ARCTIC HIGH. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN BELOW ZERO OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING THE END OF
THE SNOW...AND WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TONIGHT...BROAD MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHEAR AXIS AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW WITHIN THE FGEN OF THIS CONVERGENT ZONE WILL EXIT
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE IF THE
RETURNS OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST...BUT
WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE
EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THE MESO-MODELS ARE PICKING UP A MID-LAKE
SNOW BAND OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THAT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING AND
DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONE OF THE MESO MODELS INDICATES
THAT SOME OF THIS MID-LAKE SNOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES. GENERALLY DO NOT LIKE THIS IDEA...SINCE SYNOPTIC WINDS
WILL BE OFFSHORE AND ANY LAND BREEZE COMPONENT WILL WANT TO SHOVE
THE LAKE SNOW TO THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LAKE. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT KEEP ACCUMS
LIGHT.
THE OTHER PROBLEM AREA TONIGHT WILL BE WIND CHILLS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE SURFACE GRADIENT TO BE A LITTLE TOO TIGHT FOR
DECOUPLING THIS EVENING...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT SO
THINK SURFACE WINDS SHOULD TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPS FALLING
BELOW MINUS 20 SEEMS LIKELY...SO STUCK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS
MIN TEMPS. WITH CLOUDS OVERHEAD IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR DECOUPLING AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY NOT EXCITED TO
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WITH SO MANY QUESTION MARKS...ESPECIALLY
AFTER SO MANY LOW WIND CHILL EVENTS ALREADY. BUT WITH OFFICES TO
THE WEST ISSUING HEADLINES...WILL FOLLOW SUIT TO BLEND.
SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE SHORELINE OF MANITOWOC AND KEWAUNEE
COUNTIES WILL BE EXITING DURING THE MORNING AS DRY ARCTIC AIR FLOWS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EARLY IN THIS PERIOD WILL CONSOLIDATE MONDAY
WITH SOME MODERATION OF COLD EXPECTED AS MORE ZONAL PATTERN SETS
UP. THEREAFTER...SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FLOW TO
BRING PCPN TO AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. ISSUES WILL BE TIMING THESE
SYSTEMS. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED SO AMOUNTS WILL ON LIGHT
SIDE. BY THU...850MB TEMPS RISE INTO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...WITH SURFACE TEMPS APPROACHING 30? PATTERN BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN AS MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TROF OVER CENTER
OF U.S. COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST THIS COLDER TURN TO BE SHORT LIVED.
IN NEAR TERM....HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OUT OF NORTHERN PLAINS
AND LIGHT WINDS TO LEAD TO CONTINUING VERY COLD PERIOD THROUGH
MONDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMP FOR MARCH 3RD MAY BE IN JEOPARDY.
QUESTION ON NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY SUN NIGHT AS WINDS
EXPECTED TO DROP OFF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ESPECIALLY AFTER
6Z. WINDS ALOFT ONLY AROUND 10KTS THROUGH 850MB. WAA PATTERN...LFQ
OF JET MOVING THROUGH PLAINS TO LEAD TO NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE. STAYED WITH CHANCE POPS GIVEN MOISTURE
CONCERNS WITH EXITING DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT E-C WI
DURING THE REST OF THE NGT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-018-
019-021-030-035-036.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1044 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXITING
EASTERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRYING NOTED IN WV LOOPS BEHIND
IT. ISOLATED MAINLY OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY STRUGGLED TO
WARM INTO THE 30S TODAY...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WANING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THESE AREAS MAY COOL QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
OTHER AREAS HOWEVER WILL SEE WAA WITH LEE TROFFING OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH LOWER 30S FOR PORTIONS OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WITH NAM12 AND RAP SUGGESTING
FOG FROM ROUGHLY KLHX EASTWARD. HOWEVER...ALSO LOOKING AT NEXT
ROUND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
DISTANCE SPEED TOOL PUTS THIS INTO THE AREA BY 03-04Z...AND IF CLOUD
COVER IS THICK ENOUGH...MAY PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/UPPER LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE
CEN/NRN CA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW INTO THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH LEE TROFFING AND POCKETS OF BREEZY WEST WINDS ACROSS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY...EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL AID IN DEEPER
MIXING. SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AFTER
21Z...SPREADING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES LOOK FAIRLY STEEP...SO SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY WET SNOW WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS.
FORTUNATELY THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO LAST FOR LONG WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD PICK UP A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES ON AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH
OF A SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE STATE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST NAM CONTINUING TO BE THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM AND IS THEREFORE PRINTING OUT MUCH LESS QPF ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALSO TRENDED LESS AMPLIFIED AND A TAD FURTHER
NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...THOUGH ARE STILL
PRINTING OUT MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH BETTER MOISTURE
AND UVV WITH LF QUAD OF ASSOCIATED JET. THE NAMS TRACK RECORD OVER
THE PAST FEW MONTHS HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR...AND WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE PIKES PEAK REGION THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PALMER DVD WITH PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE PLAINS STARTING AS RAIN BEFORE BECOMING MIXED WITH AND
CHANGING TO SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEHIND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN...WILL NEED TO
SEE HOW AMPLIFIED THIS SYSTEM IS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE OR LESS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MTS AND PLAINS.
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY...THOUGH
STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...WARMER WESTERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE
SOME SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITHIN THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTS WITH WESTERLY GAP FLOWS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...40S AND 50S ACROSS THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS AND MAINLY
30S AT THE PEAKS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE
AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY....WITH THE ECMWF STILL INDICATING A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS TRACK REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DECENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS AND SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST H7-H5 FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
DRY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1148 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
319 PM CST
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOR SNOW CHANCES...NAMELY TUE
NIGHT AND WED...AND THEN TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS IT
GETS CHALLENGING WEIGHING FACTORS SUCH AS CLOUD COVER...INCREASING
MARCH SUN ANGLE...SNOW COVER...AND FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...
A STRONG AND BARELY MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OF 1035MB IS IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA GOING INTO THIS EVE. WHILE HEIGHTS ARE
SLOWLY RISING ALOFT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WITHIN FAST
PACED WNW FLOW IS APPROACHING THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE ON WATER VAPOR IS SEEN ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WITH MID
CLOUD ALREADY INTO SOUTHWEST WI. THE RAP AND NAM SOLUTIONS OF
SIMULATED WATER VAPOR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND HAVE
INCORPORATED THAT APPROACH INTO SKY COVER FORECASTS TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING CLOUDY BY MID-EVE. THIS WILL MAKE IT TRICKY
AS THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS THIS
EVE BUT THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OFFSET THIS SOME. HAVE LEANED THE
MILDER ROUTE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...WITH A LIMITED DROP-OFF
THIS EVE AND THEN TEMPS CLIMBING OVERNIGHT. HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPS
FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHWEST IN WHERE MID CLOUDS
WILL TAKE THEIR LONGEST TO THICKEN.
THE FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL BE PRIMARILY TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO THIS SHORT WAVE...AS IT OFTEN IS
WITH THESE PROGRESSIVE ARE LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS.
THUS AM NOT TOO EXCITED FOR SNOW INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY DEEP ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SO HAVE
LEANED AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST 12Z NAM AND CLOSER TO THE RAP AND
GLOBAL MODELS...WITH POSSIBLY A DUSTING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-88.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES EARLY IN NORTHEAST
IL...THE DAYTIME TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A GAP BETWEEN WAVES
LIKELY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE. WITH A MUCH WARMER STARTING
POINT THAN TODAY...HIGHS LOOK TO REBOUND MORE TOWARD WHERE THEY
SHOULD BE GIVEN THE 925MB TEMPS...BUT FAR FROM WHERE THEY SHOULD
BE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE HAS A BETTER PATH TO FAVOR OUR AREA AND ALSO
HAS MORE ELONGATED /LONGER LASTING/ FORCING TIED TO ITS UPPER
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENESIS. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE AREA SEEING SNOW...NAMELY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING...AND IT MAKES GOOD SENSE GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. SO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS. THE SNOW LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT
GIVEN TOP DOWN METHOD AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES...WITH MODEST RATES
AT TIMES WHEREVER THAT WEST-TO-EAST BAROCLINIC GRADIENT OF THE
SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS. HAVE 1-2.5 INCHES FORECAST FOR A LOT OF THE
AREA. HOW MUCH A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY GETS INVOLVED WEDNESDAY WILL BE KEY AS WELL...AS THAT
COULD BOOST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. ALSO OF NOTE
IS POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SETUP ONCE AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT FOR NORTHEAST IL. MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS MORNING
WOULD POINT TOWARD NOT AS GOOD OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THERE ARE
SIGNS OF CONVERGENCE AND BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER RH...AND FOR THAT
HAVE CONTINUED POPS ACROSS CHICAGO INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MTF
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGH/LOW TEMPS...WITH LOW CHANCE POSSIBILITIES FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD.
GENERAL WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN SEVERAL WAVES OF
ENERGY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THESE
FEATURES AND RESULTANT QPF. ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO VARY WITH
THE STRENGTH OF A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AND THEN IS A TAD MORE BULLISH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...WHATEVER DEVELOPS SHOULD BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE
AND QUICKLY EXIT...AND WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. PATTERN TRIES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK WHILE SHOWING SIGNS OF SLIGHT WARMING...AS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE LARGE
VORT MAX SHIFTS EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. TAIL END OF THIS
ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AS WINDS
BACK AND WAA OCCURS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WARMER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW THEN POSSIBLE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT MOVE OVER THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH...THIS WARMING WILL BE BRIEF AS COLDER AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW PRE-DAWN THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
* ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...BEGINNING BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10KT.
BY TOMORROW EVENING A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TOMORROW EVENING AND WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY...BUT
STILL LESS THAN 10KT.
OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW.
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED
IMPULSE CROSSING IOWA AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD
PUSH INTO NWRN IL BY ARND 08Z. THE LOWEST LEVELS REMAIN VERY
DRY...SO ANY SNOW MAY INITIALLY BE VERY LIGHT AND CIGS SHOULD BE
SLOW TO LOWER. GIVEN THE DRY AIR THAT THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...STILL ANTICIPATE THAT
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN LOWER END VFR...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION IN FAST NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER...WITH HAVE
BETTER SFC SUPPORT WITH SOME LIFT INVOF THE WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD
SET UP. AT THIS POINT...WILL INTRODUCE A PROB30 FOR SNOW TOMORROW
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WOULD ANTICIPATE RAMPING UP THE IMPACT OF THE
SNOW AS DETAILS BECOME A BIT MORE CERTAIN...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE
PREVAILING LOWER END MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TOMORROW
NIGHT...WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AND RESULTING CIG/VIS IMPACTS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ONSET OF SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY. CHANCE OF
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
227 PM CST
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS ALL OF LAKE MI THROUGH
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND HELP TO BRING A TRAILING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO...HOWEVER A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE WINDS A TAD TO 10 TO 20 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. FURTHER SOUTH THE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH
TUESDAY EVENING OF THE LAKE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING BACK
ACROSS THE LAKE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATED WITH A GENERAL TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY SOUTH
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
AID IN KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 20 KT.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1111 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
Tonight:
Some mid to high level clouds will continue tonight in association with
a jet streak passing off to the southeast. Southerly winds will become
SSW/SW after midnight. The downslope winds should lead to higher minimums
for much of the region, except over deeper snowpack. Calling for mid to
upper 20sF by Elkhart to upper single digits to lower teens across the
deeper snowpack (generally along and east of Highway 183).
Tomorrow:
The HRRR is suggesting fog formation tonight, but this is different
than what the WRF is suggesting. Think the model fields might be too
heavily influenced by the model snowpack. If fog does develop, it will
be patchy.
Lee troughing will continue tomorrow. Downslope, compressional warming
is expected ahead of a frontal boundary. This front will traverse the
region after my short-term period ends. A fairly impressive gradient
of maximum temperatures is expected across the forecast area of responsibility.
Low 60sF will be possible across the western zones, where the warmest
850 hPa temperatures are expected along with the strongest downslope
wind component. Have undercut temperature guidance farther east across
the heavier snowpack areas, where low 40sF are possible for highs. Any
precipitation will remain outside of my period.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
This extended period will be dominated by a two different upper
level troughs passing through, one on Tuesday night and Wednesday,
and the other one on Friday night and Saturday.
In the nearer term, Tuesday night should be cold with lows in the
mid 20s in the Hays and LaCrosse areas, ranging to the mid 30s down
down in our southwest corner near Elkhart. I think the front will
be in the I-70 corridor about midnight, with some overrunning
precipitation beginning by midnight, in the form of snow and/or
sleet. Forecast sounding from nearly every model shows a warm
tongue aloft, for the early part of the event. The front will
spill southward through Southwestern and South Central Kansas on
Wednesday, and most of the rest of our forecast area will see some
snow/sleet early Wednesday, changing over to rain by late morning.
The dynamics will be stronger to our north, so 20 to 30 percent
precipitation chances will suffice for us. Only light QPF amounts
are expected, generally less than 0.03 inch liquid, and perhaps up
to a half inch of snow in any particular location. Wednesday`s
high temperatures Will range from 39F in Hays to 52F in Johnson
City.
Wednesday night through Friday will see some warming, with the
coolest highs across any accumulation of snow. Wednesday night
minimum temperatures will still be similar to mins Wednesday
morning, in the mid 20s to lower 30s. There will be a quick warm
up Thursday with southwest surface winds. Maximum temperatures in
the southwest corner near Ulysses and Elkhart will rise into the
lower to middle 60s, while the east sections from Ellis to
Comanche Counties will only top out in the lower to middle 50s.
There will be some advance clouds moving in Friday, which will knock
down maximum temperatures Friday into the upper 40s north of I-70,
ranging to near 60F down south along the Oklahoma border. As an
upper wave moves into the plains Friday night, a cold front will
dive southeast from Wyoming. This will bring another round of
snow or rain to Southwest Kansas Friday Night and Saturday. I did
lower some of the 50% Pops from the AllBlend model to 30 and 40
percent, to better match our neighbor`s grids. Friday night will
see a cool down in low temperatures, dropping to the mid 20s to
lower 30s. Saturday should be significantly colder, with the
clouds and precipitation around. Highs should only reach the
middle 40s to near 50F on Saturday.
Sunday looks mostly sunny and considerably warmer, with max temps in
the upper 50s near Larned and the middle 60s in the Syracuse area.
Sunday will be sunny and even warmer with max temps in the middle
60s across the forecast area. Minimum temperatures both Saturday
and Sunday mornings will average in the 25F to 30F degree range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
A trough of low pressure will slide east into extreme western
Kansas today as a cold front moves south into Nebraska. Surface
winds just east of this surface boundary will continue from the
south/southwest at around 10 knots. Based on expected low level
wind speeds and direction overnight, IFR visibilities and/or
ceilings are not anticipated. Will however keep a period of MVFR
visibilities possible between 09z and 14z. VFR conditions are
expected today. High level cloud cover will increase by late day
across all of western Kansas as an upper level disturbance
approaches the area from the west.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 17 49 27 44 / 0 0 10 30
GCK 18 56 28 46 / 0 0 10 30
EHA 27 62 33 52 / 0 0 10 20
LBL 20 57 30 50 / 0 0 10 20
HYS 12 45 25 39 / 0 0 20 40
P28 9 40 25 42 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
946 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS WEEK. LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TO
BEGIN THE WEEK IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH A ZONAL TO SUBTLE LONGWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE
EAST...PLACING OUR REGION IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. BELOW THIS...WILL SEE WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST
TOMORROW. LATE TOMORROW A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
TODAY...MORNING BEGAN QUITE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH
AT A FEW SITES. CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY DISSIPATE. MODEL
OUTPUT FROM GFS AND NAM ESPECIALLY GENERALLY NOT USEFUL FOR NEAR
SURFACE PARAMETERS DUE TO SNOW DEPTH BEING INITIALIZED MUCH TOO
DEEP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. RAP DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM THIS...SO LEANED TOWARDS RAP/ECMWF FOR
TEMPS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHERE THERE IS SNOW AND SOME CLOUD COVER
ACROSS GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES TEMPS HAVE BEEN MUCH
COLDER...BUT ELSEWHERE A PLEASANT AND WARMER DAY AFTER A BITTER
COLD WEEKEND.
TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND 850MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO RISE WILL
MAKE FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH...LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN A FEW SPOTS.
HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN PARTS OF
ADJACENT COLORADO/KANSAS COUNTIES GENERALLY BASED OFF OF THE RAP
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TRENDS. THOUGH BELIEVE SOME OF THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN SREF/NAM ARE DUE TO SNOW FIELD...WITH RAP ALSO
HINTING AT A GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH AT
LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. MUCH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WINDS...AND IF
WINDS REMAIN UP AROUND 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT MIGHT NOT SEE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WHATSOEVER.
WEDNESDAY...SUNNY AND WARM FOR THE MOST PART. HIGHS APPROACHING 60
IN MOST SPOTS AS 850MB TEMPS REACH AROUND 10C...WITH ECMWF AND GEM
GOING EVEN WARMER. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BECOMING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING...QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING. QUICKER END OF GUIDANCE ACTUALLY BRINGS FRONT IN A
LITTLE EARLIER (POSSIBLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON)...THOUGH THIS WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THESE PERIODS. CAA IS
FAIRLY WEAK BEHIND THIS FRONT AND BEST COOLING MODELS ARE SHOWING
IS WITH PRECIP BAND (LIKELY DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES). CURRENT
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
(AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT) MOVING OVER OUR CWA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WED MORNING. MODEL QPF FIELDS GENERALLY MATCH ON TIMING ON AREA OF
PRECIP MOVING OVER OUR CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO I TRENDED POPS
UP DURING THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD...AND QUICKLY ENDED POPS DURING
THE WED MORNING PERIOD.
REGARDING PRECIP TYPE...VERY LITTLE E-SE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO IM NOT SEEING A LOT
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. A FEW SOUNDINGS TRY
TO SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION IN OUR SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER WITH VERY
BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE NW FLOW OVERTAKES REGION OR MAIN AREA OF
PRECIP MOVES IN IM NOT SEEING THIS BEING WORTH A MENTION. WHILE
INITIALLY THERE IS A WARM LAYER...SATURATION ABOVE THIS LAYER WILL
OCCUR WHEN MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVES IN AND TEMPERATURE (AND BY THAT
POINT WEAK CAA/EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES HAVE REMOVED THIS WARM LAYER
FROM THE EQUATION)...SO SLEET IS UNLIKELY. PROFILES GENERALLY SHOW
CLEAN RAIN-SNOW TRANSITION WITH MINIMAL CAA IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SO I WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED FZDZ/FZRA AND LEFT TYPE AS
RAIN/SNOW.
DUE TO RELIANCE ON EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES FOR RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY. CURRENT GUIDANCE AND FORECAST TIMING GENERALLY
SHOWS SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE (FAIRLY WET
AND SLUSHY).
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION
AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT ALLOWING FOR QUICK RETURN OF
MILD TEMPS/DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM UP CONSIDERABLY
THURSDAY WITH MEX/ECE SHOWING HIGHS AROUND 70F. H85 TEMPS
GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MID 60S-LOW 70S (DEPENDING ON WHICH END OF
GUIDANCE YOU CHOOSE) USING STANDARD BIAS. I TRENDED TEMPS UP
ACROSS THE CWA TO UPPER 60S THURSDAY...AND COULD STILL BE A LITTLE
LOW COMPARED TO WARMER END OF GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...NEXT QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS BACK TO OUR CWA. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN
EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON OVERALL TRENDS/CONSENSUS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WHILE THERE IS RUN-RUN MODEL SPREAD DURING THESE
PERIODS...GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGING (OF SOME FLAVOR)
AND DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 929 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
THEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER BOTH TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS. KGLD HAD WIND SPEEDS A
BIT HIGHER THE PREVIOUS FEW HOURS...BUT SPEEDS ARE NOW AT 5 KTS.
WINDS ARE A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE TONIGHT CONSIDERING
NOTHING UPSTREAM SEEMED TO CAUSE THE SPEEDS THAT KGLD HAD THE LAST
FEW HOURS. ALSO...KLBF AND KOGA CURRENTLY HAVE CALM WINDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING. DEPENDING ON WHETHER THIS TRANSFERS TO KMCK...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP KMCK VFR BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MVFR
CONDITIONS SNUCK IN THERE FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. CURRENTLY DO
NOT HAVE THE TIMING DOWN ON WHEN THAT MIGHT HAPPEN AND MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY HELPFUL AT THE PRESENT TIME SO
LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD SEEMED
FAIRLY REASONABLE TO GET A HANDLE ON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH TOMORROW BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AND WILL BECOME
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS...TOWARDS EVENING. AROUND
03Z LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO BOTH TAF SITES...WITH FOG
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 5SM WITH FAIRLY LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS SEEMED
TO ALL AGREE WITH THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THIS EVENT
HAPPENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
420 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROF EXTENDING W INTO
WRN CANADA...ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF CANADA INTO THE
NRN CONUS...BUT THE COLD IS MODERATING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLOSER TO -15C TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...REBOUNDING FROM BITTER COLD LOW TEMPS LAST NIGHT.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
OVER THE 280-285K LAYER AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL MN AS NOTED ON
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. THIS SNOW IS FCST TO SPREAD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE PROGGED BY 12Z MODELS TO DIVE SE OVER SRN/CNTRL WI...THE
BEST AND LONGEST SUSTAINED DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WI BORDER COUNTIES AND
ALONG THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE S (LIKELY) WITH LOWER CHC POPS TO THE NW
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG AVBL PER 280K
SFC (ROUGHLY 730MB) AND 6HRS OR SO OF -SN...EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH NORTH TO PERHAPS 1-2INCHES FAR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS
EXPECTED...TEMPS AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BLO 0F
TONIGHT.
EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC BEST FORCING SLIDE SE OF THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OVER THE ERN
COUNTIES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM SCNTRL CANADA WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION (8H TEMPS DOWN TO -18C) ON
TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY FROM
LOWER TO MID TEENS NORTH TO UPPER TEENS SOUTH UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
QUIET LONG TERM CONTINUES. MAIN FEATURES TO NOTE WILL BE LIGHT
SNOWFALL CHANCES LATE THU INTO FRI AND WARMER AIRMASS LATE THIS WEEK
AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO MOVE WELL N OF THE CWA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 06Z FRI AND 18Z FRI. WHILE THE FRONT WILL HELP FORCE SOME
PRECIP...THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE A SECONDARY WAVE THAT
MODELS SHOW CATCHING UP TO WITH AND MOVING WITH THE FRONT AS IS
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT AND MINOR SNOW OVER WRN
UPPER MI THU...BUT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
FRI. AT THIS POINT...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE PRETTY RAPIDLY ON WED FROM A RANGE OF -15C TO
-20C AT 12Z WED TO AROUND -11C BY 00Z THU WITH SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
GIVEN A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TUE NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO AND THAT MODELS INDICATE MIXING TO ONLY
AOB 900MB...HIGH TEMPS ON WED WILL ONLY RANGE FROM 10F-20F...WARMEST
NEAR THE WI BORDER. AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES TO THE CENTRAL CWA
AROUND 00Z FRI WITH 850MB TEMP APPROACHING 0C AS THE RIDGE PASSES.
SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 850MB
WINDS UP TO 45KTS...LEADING TO SFC GUSTS UP TO 25KTS OR HIGHER.
INCREASED HIGHS ON THU TO 20F-30F...BUT COULD SEE HIGHS ABOVE 30
OVER WRN UPPER MI. FRI SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WARMEST OVER SCENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT
ARRIVE AS EARLY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI...850MB
TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN TO THE -10C TO -15C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. MODELS THEN INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LIMITED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING. IFR VSBY WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT CMX BUT ALSO BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE AT KIWD/KCMX. EXPECT THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO VFR AT IWD/CMX IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
A SFC TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TUE...WILL RESULT IN
A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER
20KT TONIGHT THRU TUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU WED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES
FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1230 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROF EXTENDING W INTO
WRN CANADA...ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF CANADA INTO THE
NRN CONUS...BUT THE COLD IS MODERATING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLOSER TO -15C TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...REBOUNDING FROM BITTER COLD LOW TEMPS LAST NIGHT.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
OVER THE 280-285K LAYER AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL MN AS NOTED ON
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. THIS SNOW IS FCST TO SPREAD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE PROGGED BY 12Z MODELS TO DIVE SE OVER SRN/CNTRL WI...THE
BEST AND LONGEST SUSTAINED DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WI BORDER COUNTIES AND
ALONG THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE S (LIKELY) WITH LOWER CHC POPS TO THE NW
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG AVBL PER 280K
SFC (ROUGHLY 730MB) AND 6HRS OR SO OF -SN...EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH NORTH TO PERHAPS 1-2INCHES FAR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS
EXPECTED...TEMPS AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BLO 0F
TONIGHT.
EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC BEST FORCING SLIDE SE OF THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OVER THE ERN
COUNTIES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM SCNTRL CANADA WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION (8H TEMPS DOWN TO -18C) ON
TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY FROM
LOWER TO MID TEENS NORTH TO UPPER TEENS SOUTH UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODIS IMAGERY
OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS INDICATES LAKE SUPERIOR IS NEARLY ICED
OVER...SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL
DON/T EXPECT MUCH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
TUESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK SHORTWAVES...WITH THE
ONE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST AND THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE DAKOTAS. THIS
SECOND WAVE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
TRAJECTORY AS THE TUESDAY MORNING WAVE...BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PULL DRIER AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MICHIGAN AND LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATING IT BEING
SHALLOW...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST AND MAINLY INDICATE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH
INFLUENCE WITH THIS WAVE...ESPECIALLY WITH A MOSTLY FROZEN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN EASTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO VARY ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE
EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING...SHOULD SEE A
QUICK FALL IN TEMPS BEFORE RETURN FLOW TRIES TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
SINCE PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE
EVENING...DID LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BASED OFF THE CONSISTENCY
IN THE MODELS ON HAVING LOWS IN THE -5 TO -10 DEGREE RANGE.
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASUREABLE SNOW IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THERE IS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE THAT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AND ACROSS
THE U.P. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SNOW. WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS...WILL
TREND POPS UP IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND THINK SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY (FROM A HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS) AND
WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH LAKE SUPERIOR PRETTY MUCH
FROZEN OVER. THERE ARE HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY DRY...WOULDN/T
EXPECT MORE THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT)
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA.
AS FOR HIGHS...VALUES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD BUT WARMER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY. 850MB TEMPS
STAY IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO MOST OF THE WEEK AND LIMITS HIGHS FROM
RISING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 20S LATE IN THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. SOME OF THE THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (AROUND 40
PERCENT) DO SHOW TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME FOR
MOST OF THE CWA SINCE FEB 21ST. 12Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS AROUND FREEZING ON MONDAY...SO WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING. IFR VSBY WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT CMX BUT ALSO BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE AT KIWD/KCMX. EXPECT THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO VFR AT IWD/CMX IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
A SFC TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TUE...WILL RESULT IN
A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER
20KT TONIGHT THRU TUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU WED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES
FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
333 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...IT WILL BE COLD AND BLUSTERY.
SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY...CONTINUING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE COAST. A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE COAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY AND HOLDING ON THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD. THIS
MORNING...EXPECT RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES
MAY MAKE FOR SLICK TRAVEL AS TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL DOWN INTO THE
20S. ALSO...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE HIGHLY INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING WHICH WOULD FREEZE UPON IMPACT WITH MOST ANY UNTREATED
SURFACE. RADAR OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS INDICATES EVEN THE VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS APPARENT EARLIER HAS ENDED AND WITH THAT WE
WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
AN SPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT SOME
RESIDUAL ICING THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 6-7 KFT AND DRY AIR ALSO
BELOW 1-2 KFT. IN BETWEEN...THE COLUMN IS SATURATED...WITH A VERY
PRONOUNCED FRONTAL INVERSION IN PLACE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PROFILE SHOWS THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE COLD
AIR AND NE WINDS...TO A DEPTH OF 2-3 KFT. ATOP THAT...THE FLOW IS
WSW OR W...BUT RATHER WEAK.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEDGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SHOW A MODEST WEAKENING TREND THROUGH
TONIGHT. ONE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EVE...BUT A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AS ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES APPROACHES
TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT...WE MAY SEE A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE S. CONCERN WITH THIS IS
WHETHER SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AS THE LIGHT RAIN
REACHES THE AREA. THE BELOW FREEZING LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND
SO THERE IS NO EXPECTATION FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...EVEN
IF AIR TEMPS ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...SOME SURFACES AT OR NEAR
GROUND LEVEL MAY NOT QUITE BE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. ANY SURFACE
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP A LIGHT GLAZE.
AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR ANY ICING TONIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...NEAR AND N OF A BURGAW TO EYF TO LBT TO
BBP LINE. THESE AREAS WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH DAYBREAK WED AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES REACH THE AREA
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...A TRACE TO A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OR SO. WE
WILL BE WATCHING FORECAST TRENDS CLOSELY AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN OTHERS AND WE DID TREND OUR FORECAST TOWARD
THE COOLER SOLUTIONS WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WE WILL HOLD ONTO THICK CLOUD COVER THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD
A FLAT DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AND WE WILL DO WELL TO GET ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S. TONIGHT...WET BULB TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREEP HIGHER AND WE DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO CHANGE MUCH
WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO DAYTIME HIGHS...IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FLIRTING WITH 32 DEGREES...
MAINLY ALONG AND N OF A LINE FROM BURGAW AND EYF TO LBT AND BBP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE CAROLINAS WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH WED AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDES UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH A DECENT NORTHEAST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE BEING OVERRUN BY SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS ENHANCED LIFT
WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF RAIN ON WED. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BEST LIFT WILL BE ALIGNED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR PCP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS COLUMN REMAINS SATURATED THROUGH MUCH
OF WED. BORDERLINE TEMPS WED MORNING WILL WARM AND ENTIRE COLUMN
WARMS THROUGH WED INTO THURS ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE THREAT OF ANY
WINTRY MIXED PCP. AS THE BEST LIFT REMAINS MORE ALIGNED WITH COAST
EXPECT HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO BE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OFF SHORE.
THIS FIRST IMPULSE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY WED NIGHT AND
SHOULD SEE PCP LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WED.
ANOTHER MORE POTENT LOW WILL RIDE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST OR JUST OFF
SHORE THROUGH THURS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR THE AREA IN
ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN
AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD
COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT THURS. OVERALL EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDY WET AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER.
GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED WED AFTN AND THEN AGAIN ON THURS TO PRODUCE
INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS AND PCP WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR HIGHS AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT....MID 30S TO AROUND 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO UPR LEVELS OVER THE
CAROLINAS FRI MORNING WILL PUSH OFF SHORE BY FRI AFTN AS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF AREA LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
LINGERING PCP THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A DEEPER DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON
BACK END OF EXITING LOW. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL
BY FRI...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT A LITTLE QUICKER AND
SUNSHINE HELPS TO BRING TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES. BY SATURDAY HIGH
PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO OUR SOUTH WITH A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL BRING
TEMPS JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THE COOL WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO
THE BEACHES COOLER AS SEA BREEZE KICKS IN EACH AFTERNOON SAT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE BY LATE SATURDAY WITH A W-SW FLOW
SETTING UP. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY SUNDAY EVENING. WILL SEE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LEFT VERY LOW END CHC OF PCP
BACK IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT NOT
COUNTING ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD ON THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR
MONDAY AFTER A COOLER START MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATE MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING WITH N-NNE WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING JUST OVER 20 KTS. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS AN END
OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR NOW...BUT MAJOR MODELS HINT AT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE.
IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS THIS MORNING IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY PRECIPITATION IN TAFS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT VFR
WILL TEMPORARILY DEVELOP AT KLBT AROUND 09Z AND AT KFLO SEVERAL
HOURS LATER AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR WILL DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS...AND SHOULD RE-DEVELOP AT KFLO/KLBT BY MID-LATE
MORNING. MOST MODELS INCREASE PRECIPITATION AFTER SUNRISE ESPECIALLY
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. IFR WILL BE LIKELY NEAR AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE PRECIPITATION/IFR WED...AND THU EVENING THROUGH FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WILL DOWNGRADE THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THIS ISSUANCE. OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A
DECIDED ALBEIT SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE STRONG WIND GUSTS. A
STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THIS PERIOD. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMES A LITTLE LESS TIGHT AND WITH THE INITIAL COLD AND DRY SURGE
NOW PAST...EXPECT THE WIND SPEEDS WILL VERY SLOWLY DIMINISH. THE
STRONGEST WILL BE THROUGH THIS MORNING...UP TO 25 TO 30 KT...THEN UP
TO 20 TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND AROUND 20 KT TONIGHT. THE
DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FROM THE NNE. SEAS HAVE PEAKED...UP TO 11 FT
AT FRYING PAN SHOALS EARLIER. EXPECT A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND HERE AS
WELL WITH SEAS LIKELY FALLING BELOW 6 FT WITHIN 20 NM LATER THIS EVE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES BY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WATERS. LOCAL WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW
WHICH WILL BECOME PINCHED WED AND THEN AGAIN ON THURS AS A MORE
POTENT LOW MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AROUND 15
KTS ON WED WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN
FURTHER ON THURS. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP INTO SCA THRESHOLDS MAINLY
IN OUTER WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE THROUGH WED NIGHT UP TO 5 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS AND UP TO 6
TO 9 FT AS LOW DEEPENS AND RIDES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURS.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL RUN THROUGH THURS NIGHT IN STIFF NORTHEAST
FLOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FINALLY COME DOWN
BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. MAY SEE SOME SPOTS IN OUTER WATERS REACH UP CLOSE
TO GALE FORCE AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
EXITING LOW ON SATURDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ALLOWING SEAS TO
SUBSIDE DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH SAT MORNING AND EVEN FURTHER BY
SAT EVENING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
208 AM EST MON MAR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...IT WILL BE COLD AND BLUSTERY.
SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY...CONTINUING COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE COAST. A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE COAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM MONDAY...CONTINUED UPDATES TO THE HOURLY GRIDS HAVE
BEEN APPLIED AND UPLOADED...PARTICULARLY RELATED TO THE
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE ILM CWA.
LATEST PCPN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE ILM CWA HAS
DECREASED AND DIMINISHED DURING THIS LATE EVENING. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...THE FA WILL BE LOOKING AT A CONTINUED
POST FRONTAL STRATIFORM CLOUD DECK. THE ARCTIC/COLD AIR DEPTH TO
REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW ACROSS THE FA DURING ITS SHORT TENURE ACROSS
THE ILM CWA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MINIMAL DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE ANY ORGANIZED PCPN...OTHER THEN THE
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH MINIMAL IF ANY
ACCRUAL OR ACCRETION TO OCCUR. CONTINUED RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE ILM
CWA...AND LATEST TEMPS FROM SFC OBS INDICATING PCPN FALLING AS
PATCHY ZR- OR XL-...WITH ICE PELLETS IE. SLEET...ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE
THE SFC BASED ARCTIC AIR IS DEEPER IN DEPTH. OVERALL...HAVE
CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON PCPN COVERAGE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE THREAT FOR WINTRY PCPN OVER PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA.
FOR THE CLIMATIC DAY...MARCH 3RD 2014...THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY ACROSS THE ILM CWA HAVE BEEN CONTINUALLY RE-SETTING TO A
NEW LOW TEMP FOR THE DAY AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS
THE FA THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A HIGHLY UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS AN ARCTIC FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE WHILE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BANKED ALONG THE EAST
COAST BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE. ALOFT...SW FLOW
AHEAD DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WARM/MOIST FLOW
ABOVE THE SURFACE WEDGE...WHILE SOME ENHANCED CONFLUENCE WILL
ACTUALLY HELP REINFORCE ITS STRENGTH. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK
TUESDAY REVOLVES AROUND WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST...IF NOT
ALL...OF THE CWA...WHILE TEMPS BETWEEN 950MB AND 850MB WARM TO +2C
TO +4C. MOIST LOW LEVELS OF THE COLUMN PERSIST ALL OF TUESDAY...BUT
VERY DRY AIR EXISTS ABOVE 850MB...SUCH THAT PWATS REMAIN RATHER
LOW...AROUND ONE-HALF INCH. SO THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP...EVEN MORE DETERMINING
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING SEVERAL HOURS INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPS ONLY
VERY SLOWLY WARM...LIKELY MUCH SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS
AND REINFORCING WEDGE. STILL...WILL CARRY XL FOR ALL ZONES INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING MAYBE A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTH.
AGAIN...AM CONCERNED ABOUT LACK OF FORCING (ISENTROPIC LIFT IS VERY
WEAK) AND THE DRY AIR ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP QPF AT 0 FOR NOW. THIS IS
A VERY BORDERLINE SITUATION HOWEVER...SINCE SIMPLY A TRACE OF ZR
REQUIRES A WW.Y...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A
FLUID SITUATION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR POTENTIAL
EXPANSION OF CURRENT WW.Y TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE CWA.
A MORE IMPRESSIVE AREA OF PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY OVERHEAD IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. FORECAST PROFILES
SATURATE CONSIDERABLY...AND MOS P12/P24 VALUES SKYROCKET TO THE HIGH
LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS
QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN THE GFS ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL NOT BE AS
AGGRESSIVE AS GFS IS SHOWING FOR QPF...BUT DEFINITELY BETTER RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WED THAN TUESDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY...TEMPS
WILL HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO JUST A COLD
RAIN IS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS LATE
WEDNESDAY...BUT RENEWED HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD
AND ON THURSDAY AS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. INHERITED POP SHOWS INCREASING TO HIGH-CHC FROM
SW TO NE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND FEEL THIS IS WARRANTED
SO WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL INCREASE TO THE WED NIGHT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS THE REINFORCING WEDGE
COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL PREVENT MUCH WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS WILL PEAK ONLY IN THE 30S MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW 40S POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. THIS IS 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE! LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS FOR
MINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME WARMING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...RISING INTO THE MID/UPPR 40S...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID/UPPR 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW SHOULD BE TAKING
SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY...SPREADING PLENTY OF THICK
CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH 12Z GFS WAS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF REGARDING THE DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. I HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80
PERCENT AND STORM-TOTAL QPF TO NEAR 1 INCH PENDING CONFIRMATION
FROM ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF MODEL RUNS.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ROLL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND PERIODS OF LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
RAIN TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE 12Z GFS LOOKED SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF WAS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AS IT BOMBS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE NC COAST. ROUGHLY 20 PERCENT OF
THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOWED A STRONG SURFACE LOW LIKE THE
12Z ECMWF SITTING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY...SO THIS IDEA WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ASSUMING WE GET SOME SUNSHINE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY HIGHS SHOULD REACH 53-57...COOLEST AT
THE COAST. (OF COURSE IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS RIGHT AND WE STAY CLOUDY/
RAINY/WINDY MOST OF THE DAY THESE HIGHS COULD BE 10 DEGREES TOO
OPTIMISTIC)
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.
HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY WILL SEEM WONDERFUL AFTER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS PLUS THE DAYTIME SEABREEZE WORKING
TOGETHER TO KEEP THE BEACHES CONSIDERABLY COOLER COMPARED TO INLAND
LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ALOFT WITH
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE 12Z GFS WAS MUCH
FARTHER EAST THAN EITHER OF TODAY`S ECMWF RUNS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CUTTING OFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GOING WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION MEANS WE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNLESS A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG A SOUTHWARD-MOVING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN
THE EAST COAST SUNDAY EVENING. THIS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE THE
RESULT OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD BRING LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...PREDOMINATE MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING WITH N-NNE WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING JUST OVER 20 KTS. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS AN END
OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR NOW...BUT MAJOR MODELS HINT AT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE.
IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS THIS MORNING IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY PRECIPITATION IN TAFS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT VFR
WILL TEMPORARILY DEVELOP AT KLBT AROUND 09Z AND AT KFLO SEVERAL
HOURS LATER AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES. THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR WILL DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
DUE TO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS...AND SHOULD RE-DEVELOP AT KFLO/KLBT BY MID-LATE
MORNING. MOST MODELS INCREASE PRECIPITATION AFTER SUNRISE ESPECIALLY
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. IFR WILL BE LIKELY NEAR AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE PRECIPITATION/IFR WED...AND THU EVENING THROUGH FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...BORDERLINE POST ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL N-NE GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL RULE THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT...ESPECIALLY JUST OUTSIDE THE
LOCAL WATERS IE. 41013 GUSTING OVER 40 KT THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
THE GALE WARNING CRITERIA HAS BEEN SATISFIED FOR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE TIGHTENING SFC PG AND THE ARCTIC
SURGE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SFC PG LOOSENING SOME
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. N-NNE WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30
KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS...WILL DOMINATE THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 8
FT...WITH THE HIGHER SEAS OF THIS RANGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR...AND THE OUTER WATERS OFF FROM THE MOUTH OF
WINYAH BAY. THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT AVERAGE AND
DOMINANT PERIODS OF 6 SECONDS...WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UNDERLYING AND IDENTIFIABLE 9 TO 10
SECOND PERIOD 1 TO 3 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL...WILL CO-EXIST WITH
THIS BUILDING WIND WAVE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WITH A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
ALONG THE COAST BEHIND IT. THIS WEDGE WILL CONTROL THE LOCAL WIND
TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A NE DIRECTION PERSISTENT
THROUGH MID-WEEK. SPEEDS WILL CHANGE WITH THE FLUCTUATING
GRADIENT...EASING FROM 15-25 KTS EARLY TUESDAY TO 10-15 KTS LATE
TUESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 15-20 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A 6-7 NE WIND WAVE...WITH
AMPLITUDES FALLING FROM 4-7 FT EARLY...TO 3-5 FT MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...AND RISING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 3-6 FT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THURSDAY. VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG A LINE FROM
FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY MORNING CONSOLIDATING INTO A
SINGLE LOW ABOUT 100 MILES OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY
EVENING. THE LOW SHOULD STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT FOLLOWS THE GULF
STREAM NORTHEASTWARD. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST/NORTH WINDS AND SEAS.
MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE LOW FRIDAY: THE 12Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF TAKE THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH DIMINISHING IMPACTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT
HOWEVER...SLOWING THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ON
FRIDAY AS IT BOMBS THE STORM DOWN TO BELOW 1000 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE
WHILE OVER THE WARM WATER SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THIS SCENARIO
COULD BRING NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS BY SATURDAY THE
LOW SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND QUICKLY DIMINISHING
SEAS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
105-106.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...MRR/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1005 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
BASED ON RADAR UPSTREAM SNOW AREA HUGGING ALONG HIGHWAY TWO ATTM
AS THE SOUTHERN ACTIVITY HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN.
SHORT RANGE RAP AND INCOMING NAM12 BRING THE BACKEDGE OF LIGHT
SNOW CURRENTLY NEAR RUGBY-CARRINGTON TO THE RED RIVER IN EAST
CENTRAL ND BY 08Z AND THEN PUSH IT EAST OF OUR MN FCST AREA BY
11Z. THIS IS LATER THAN EARLIER FCST AND THUS UPPED POPS AND
DELAYED SNOW ENDING. THIS SECOND BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW IS FINE SNOW
AND NOT ACCUMULATING MUCH -- GENERALLY UNDER A HALF INCH. MOST
SNOWFALL TODAY WAS IN THE FARGO AREA WITH 1.5 INCHES.
CLEARING NOTED VERY NEAR MANITOBA-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AND THIS MAY
DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT MOST MODELS SLIDE IT MORE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. WHERE IT CLEARS IT WILL DROP BLO ZERO QUICKLY BUT IN
CLOUDS TEMPS WILL HOLD UP. SO LOW TEMP FCST A BIT TRICKY BUT KEPT
PREV FCST AREA OF SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORTH TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
SOUTH.
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
SNOW CHANCES WITH THE VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
MODELS THAT WERE HINTING AT THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION HAVE VERIFIED AS
A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH HAS FALLEN AT FARGO AND SNOW IS STILL
ONGOING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BAND
WEAKENING FROM FARGO TO PKD AND THEN REDEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH
LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRACK RECORD WITH PLACEMENT OF
THE SNOW BAND WITH THIS SYSTEM AM NOT SURE ANY MODEL SOLUTION IS
TO BE TRUSTED. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS THIS
EVENING...MAINLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND THEN
TAPERING OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE HEADS OFF INTO MN LATER TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
TOMORROW. MODELS ALL BRING IN SOME PRECIP INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH IT STILL SEEMS THAT THE MAIN BAND WILL BE
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. THINK THAT EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA
WILL HELP KEEP MUCH OF THE SNOW TO THE FRINGES OF THE CWA AND WILL
KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE. HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO FOR TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MN...WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF ALTHOUGH LEFT SOME LOW
POPS IN OUR SOUTH AND WEST FOR ANYTHING LINGERING. CLOUDS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT SHOT OF
MILDER AIR AS WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF A SFC
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND HIGHS SHOULD GET MORE INTO THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S. THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGS COLD AIR DOWN AGAIN
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. THE GFS IS FASTEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
BRINGS THE NEXT COLD AIR SURGE FAIRLY EARLY ON THURSDAY WHILE THE
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP 850MB TEMPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA
FOR A LONGER PERIOD. MAY BE WISH-CASTING...BUT THE GFS IS OFTEN TOO
PROGRESSIVE SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BIT MORE WARMTH ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S. MAY HAVE A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE THURSDAY BUT CAN ADJUST AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER.
FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...500MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES THU NIGHT/FRI BUT THERE IS ONE MORE LITTLE BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST SAT/EARLY SUN WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SFC.
TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL FRI/SAT BUT REALLY BEGIN TO BUMP UP SUN
POSSIBLY INTO MON. ECMWF/GFS SHOW +4C TO +8C AT 850MB ON SUNDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR WEST WINDS. THEREFORE CURRENTLY GOING AROUND 32F FOR
SUN HIGHS AND GUIDANCE NOW GIVING ABOUT THE SAME OR WARMER FOR MON.
850MB TEMPS LOOK ABOUT 4 TO 8 C COOLER ON MONDAY SO WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF LATER RUNS COOL MONDAY HIGHS. COULD ALSO BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AROUND ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CIGS THRU THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR VSBYS IN
LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES THIS EVENING. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TURNING
LIGHT NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1054 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
TO OVERCOME AND THUS WILL KEEP OUT ANY POPS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME FLURRIES THAT MAKE IT THROUGH THE DRY AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
OTHER QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER WE SEE ANY LOW STRATUS FORM.
NAM..GFS...HRRR AND RAP ALL SHOW A PRETTY STRONG SIGNAL...AS LOW
LEVEL MOIST AIR IS ADVECTED NORTH INTO OUR COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER
NOTHING OUT THERE RIGHT NOW...AND THE GEM AND ECMWF SEEM A LITTLE
LESS AGGRESSIVE ON THE STRATUS. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. INITIALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY AS
THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HELP KEEP THINGS MIXED.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EXIT LATER
TONIGHT. IF STRATUS IS NOT AROUND OR EXITS...COULD SEE SOME SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES BY MORNING. HOWEVER IF STRATUS STICKS AROUND READINGS
WOULD BE STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO. FOR NOW
WILL GO THE MIDDLE GROUND...SINCE CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON WHICH
SOLUTION WILL VERIFY.
TOMORROW WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH THE SLOW WARMING TREND
CONTINUING...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND AN EASTERLY WIND
AROUND 10 MPH. ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRETTY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL BEING A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE AN AREA OF SNOW AFTER WE
SATURATE THE INITIALLY DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS. CURRENT THOUGHT IS
THAT WE WILL SEE AN AREA OF SNOW FORM ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE
WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BEST CHANCE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO
SPENCER IOWA LINE...CLOSER TO THE BETTER PV ADVECTION AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTERACTION. 12Z NAM SEEMED TOO SLOW AND THUS WAS NOT
USED...WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS...GEM AND ECMWF SEEMING LIKE THE WAY
TO GO. GIVEN THE PERIOD OF PRETTY GOOD OMEGA...THE HIGHER QPF OF THE
HI RES MODELS AND GEM DOES SEEM POSSIBLE. SO DID TREND QPF UP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE 18Z NAM HAS ACTUALLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE
OTHER MODELS...AND NOW MATCHES THE FORECAST PRETTY WELL. THINKING WE
SEE AN AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES SOMEWHERE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
CURRENT BEST GUESS BEING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
COUNTIES...WITH GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ELSEWHERE. MODELS TODAY HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST WITH QPF INTO THE AREA OF BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL FALL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...ALLOWING THE LIGHT
SNOWFALL LINGERING ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF TO COME TO AN END BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...KEEPING PREVENTING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING MUCH FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. LIGHT WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PUT A CAP ON THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH THE 20S WITH SOME LOW 30S IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FURTHER BOLSTERING
READINGS DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT STRATUS ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN TIMING THAN THE GEM AND
GFS...BUT ALL MODELS DO TRACK THE BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEEING ANY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF...BUT EVEN HERE MID
LEVELS REMAIN PRETTY DRY. WILL LEAVE ONLY MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX WITH FAIRLY MILD MID/LOW LEVELS AND SUB FREEZING AT THE SURFACE.
THE WARMING TREND RESUMES SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING
BUILDING BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOLLOWED BY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW
TO MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...THOUGH APPEARS AS THOUGH ATMOSPHERE WILL SATURATE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO FALL AT BOTH KHON AND KFSD AROUND 18Z...AND
POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS KSUX. HEAVIEST SNOW AT THIS POINT
APPEARS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH AND EAST OF KFSD AND KHON...WHERE
VISIBILITY MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. WEAK LIFT
LINGERS INTO TUESDAY EVENING...SO HARD TO SAY AT THIS POINT ON
WHEN THE SNOW WILL STOP.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1145 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF A BAND OF SNOW IS ALREADY APPROACHING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ALONG A MID-LEVEL FGEN/WARM ADVECTION ZONE. DISTANCE/SPEED TOOL
HAS THIS BAND OF SNOW MOVING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN
23-00Z THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SNOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST...SNOW
TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE ESE TO THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING AND REACH LAKE MICHIGAN BY
12Z TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE WAVES...FORCING IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...700-500MB FGEN AND WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PUSH THE AREA
OF SNOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW THIS WILL
EVOLVE...BUT SOME MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY AREA OF SNOW MAY ALSO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA THIS EVENING ALONG THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THEN MERGE WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF
SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...THINK ALL
AREAS WILL SEE DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THOUGH PIN POINTING
WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL IS RATHER DIFFICULT DUE TO THE
UNORGANIZED FORCING. ADDING TO THE COMPLEXITY IS A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGH END SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. BEST
GUESS IS NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...FROM TOMAHAWK
TO STURGEON BAY WHERE HAVE ABOUT 2 INCHES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY...AND BE WINDING DOWN
TOWARDS THE START OF THE MORNING COMMUTE...SO DO NOT PLAN ON ANY
ADVISORIES. BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT SLICK ROADS TONIGHT
AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST. BUT EVEN
AFTER THIS TIME...THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE OVERHEAD
AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE LEFTOVER
THROUGH 700-600MB UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE THE
SHORTWAVES PULLING OUT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL REACH UP TO A
HALF INCH...AND MUCH OF THAT WILL COME EARLY IN THE MORNING. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THERE WARMING TREND
AND REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
CONTINUED NEAR ZONAL-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN U.S.
THIS PERIOD. SPREAD SEEN IN MODELS/ENSEMBLES LATER PERIODS WITH HOW
HANDLE ENERGY COMING INTO PACIFIC COAST AND EFFECTS ON UPPER RIDGE.
TRENDS ARE FOR TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO NORMS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL BLEND FOR NEXT MONDAY SHOWING UPPER 30S
ATTM. A REAL CONTRAST FROM TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AT ISSUE AGAIN TUE NIGHT AS WEAK WAVE MOVES
THROUGH FLOW. WAA SETS UP OVER BAROCLINIC ZONE TO BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN HALF OF WI. WEAK FGEN/JET SUPPORT...PASSES MAINLY SOUTH
OF CWA. AGAIN MODELS TRENDING TOWARD DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HAVE TIGHTENED GRADIENT UP FOR SNOW-NO SNOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO NORTHERN WI. KEPT CHANCE POPS
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
NEXT ISSUE WITH UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
FEATURE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CANADA. MODELS SHOWING A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH FOCUS OF PCPN CHANCES THU OVER NORTHWEST WI AND
NORTHEAST MN...MOVING INTO CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW PASSING OVER THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. AROUND
DAYBREAK CIGS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO A MIX OF VFR CIGS WITH
SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
959 AM EST Tue Mar 4 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Low level isentropic ascent, coupled with an upper level shortwave
produced a large area of convection across the western Gulf
overnight/early this morning. The mid-level diabatic heating max
will move east rather quickly today in the fast westerly flow
regime. The 00z ECMWF and recent RAP runs have initialized the
spatial extent of the convection more accurately and will thus
weight the forecast for this afternoon more heavily on these
pieces of guidance.
This mornings surface analysis showed yesterday`s cold front
draped across south central Florida, and on through the central
Gulf. Cool high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic forced an area
of low pressure to weaken and drift south into a more favorable
environment. This morning, a remnant trough runs south along the
lee side of the Appalachians, into Apalachee Bay. A sharp
inversion around 1500ft marks the delineation between the stable
saturated low layers and a large area of dry air aloft. Low clouds
remain trapped in this stable low layer. Expect the surface trough
to continue to gradually weaken and drift west with the very
stable cool dome spreading southwest behind it. Low clouds will
likely linger for most of the day, though some scattering is
expected along and ahead of the trough. For now, will advertise
the best chance for scattering along and west of a line from
Alligator Point, up through the southeast Alabama/southwest
Georgia state line. As one would imagine, the thick low cloud
cover will greatly limit afternoon heating. Expect highs to not
reach 50 degrees across our northeast Georgia counties, with upper
50s expected in the aforementioned region where scattering is
expected to take place. The exact position of the scattering line
is highly uncertain, so the takeaway here is that if clouds
scatter away where you are, highs should climb into the upper 50s.
Otherwise, expect temperatures to remain much cooler.
Not expecting much in the way of rain today, and any rain that
does fall will be over our extreme western counties late in the
day as the aforementioned mid-level PV anomaly links up with the
low-level surface trough. In this region expect a mix of weak low
level WAA, to combine with weak low/mid layer isentropic ascent,
but more significantly, strong mid-level diffluent flow in the
entrance region of an intensifying jet. Rain chances will only
increase through Wednesday as discussed further, below.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...
Low-end MVFR/IFR ceilings will persist all day at KABY, KVLD, and
possibly KTLH and KDHN. Expect scattering to VFR at KECP later
this afternoon. Rain spreading in from the west overnight will
reinforce the low ceilings area wide once again tonight.
&&
.Prev Discussion [609 AM EST]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Fast split flow will continue across the CONUS. No sooner will one
short wave trough move through our region (late tonight-Wednesday)
when another will already be approaching over the Southern Plains.
We`re forecasting an 80% PoP overnight for our entire forecast area,
though QPF amounts are generally less than a third of an inch. Even
though this short wave will be dampening as it moves past our
region, high PoP will continue across much of the region on
Wednesday due to the proximity to a frontal system (the cold front
that passed through Monday) and the rapid approach of the next short
wave trough. High PoPs will continue through Thursday morning, then
end quickly from west to east as a well-defined mid tropospheric dry
slot develops over the forecast area during the day on Thursday.
Our QPF total from tonight through Thursday ranges from 0.75 to
1.50 inches. Although both of the upper troughs will be rather
energetic (with decent height falls and strong winds aloft), both
the GFS and ECMWF continue to place our forecast area north of the
surface frontal system. This means that while there could be
occasional thunderstorms, the boundary layer will be stable and
these storms will be elevated. Thus we don`t expect any damaging
winds or tornadoes. The one possible exception could be in North
FL (around the Cross City area), where the GFS and ECMWF forecast
at least some SBCAPE. A surface low track slightly farther to the
north would increase this threat. Conversely, a more southern
track would eliminate the threat.
With all of the clouds/precipitation and a "wedge" of cool air in
place over GA and AL, high temperatures will be rather chilly
Wednesday- with highs in the mid 50s (except mid 60s around Cross
City). The wedge will get eroded some on Thursday, with highs in
the mid to upper 50s in GA and AL, and in the mid to upper 60s in
FL. Lows will be in the lower to mid 40s across most of the
forecast area tonight (upper 40s around Cross City), and mid to
upper 40s Thursday night (except mid 50s Cross City).
.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
On Thursday night..as trough moves offshore and low exits into Atlc
rain decreases then ends from SW-NE. Ridging builds in aloft and
high pressure at surface with deep layer dry air on Fri but
progressive pattern develops quickly next Wrn trough which begins
to move quickly Ewd progressively flattening Ern ridge with
steering flow becoming increasingly SWLY with rising temps. This
trough reaches Gulf region by Sun eve with some model differences
mainly in timing with GFS more progressive. The GFS drags a weak
cold front across Sun eve the ECMWF keeps front to our west thru
Mon.
Will go with 0-30% PoPs SW-NE Thurs night...0-30% Fri...NIL POPS
rest of period except 40-20% NW-SE POPs on Sun with the front.
Highs upper 60s Fri...70 to 75 Sat thru Mon. Lows Thurs night
around 40 north to near 50 south...40-45 Fri night...near 50 Sat
and Sun nights.
.Marine...
It appears that winds and seas have peaked (around 15 KT with 2 to
4 ft seas), and all of the NWP guidance takes winds down to around
10 KT by this afternoon. As the pressure gradient tightens between a
wedge of high pressure to our northeast and a stalled front to our
south, east winds will increase to the 10 to 15 KT range overnight,
and continue through Thursday.
.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for
the foreseeable future. The only notable item is that dispersions
will remain quite low over the next couple of days.
.Hydrology...
Rainfall amounts from Monday were mostly a tenth of an inch or less,
and not enough to significantly alter local river/stream flows. A
series of upper level disturbances later today through Thursday will
deliver roughly an inch of rain (basin average) to much of the
region. This projected total is well below Flash Flood Guidance, so
flash flooding is not expected. The latest SREF and GFS based
hydrology ensembles (MMEFS) indicate that it`s likely that several
of our FL sites will go to action stage during the next week or so,
but are not expected to go to flood stage.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 59 45 55 49 63 / 10 80 70 70 50
Panama City 59 47 59 51 62 / 20 80 70 70 40
Dothan 51 41 56 46 54 / 40 80 50 70 40
Albany 48 40 54 45 52 / 20 80 60 70 60
Valdosta 52 42 54 49 57 / 10 80 70 70 70
Cross City 66 49 65 55 68 / 0 80 60 70 70
Apalachicola 60 49 60 52 64 / 10 80 70 70 50
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
635 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WHAT`S LEFT OF THE DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER NRN QUEBEC SHEARING EASTWARD AND
WITH IT...THE CORE OF THE BITTER COLD AIR. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROF
LINGERS OVER THE ERN CONUS WHILE TO THE W...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
EXTENDS OFF THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE WRN CONUS. SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES 24HRS AGO IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAIN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM
HAS PASSED S OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
STREAK HAS ASSISTED IN SPREADING -SN ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE
NIGHT. WITH CLOUDS/-SN...TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS...A GOOD 30 DEGREES HIGHER IN SOME CASES.
THERE ARE NO SUBZERO READINGS TO BE FOUND THIS MORNING.
PER RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD -SN WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ESE AND
WILL END W TO E DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH A FEW -SHSN/FLURRIES MAY
LINGER INTO THE AFTN CNTRL AND E ALONG LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED WIND
SHIFT. WITH INCREASING SUN ANGLE...WE`RE GETTING INTO THE TIME OF
YEAR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DIURNAL -SHSN DEVELOPMENT. HIGHRES
RAPID REFRESH IS PARTICULARLY NOTABLE WITH AFTN -SHSN IT DEVELOPS
ALONG WIND SHIFT. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS N TO
LOWER 20S S. AS WINDS SHIFT OFF ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS
MAY FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG THE LAKE IN THE AFTN.
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF STRATOCU OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT UNLESS THE N TO NE
WINDS OPEN UP SUFFICIENT WATER/BKN ICE ON THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE
LAKE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE S AND W IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE THRU THE
DAKOTAS/MN. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER NRN ONTARIO...PRES
GRADIENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP DURING THE NIGHT AND
PREVENT TEMPS FROM CRASHING. ON THE OTHER HAND...VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA (PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO
15-25PCT OF NORMAL...LOWEST OVER THE E). WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ADVECTING SHALLOW VERY COLD AIR S AND W OFF ONTARIO AND ACROSS
NEARLY COMPLETELY FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR...FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR MINS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY COLUMN. ALTHOUGH
FCST MINS RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO THE LOWER -TEENS...TEMPS IN
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS COULD FALL TOWARD -20F IF SKIES END UP MAINLY
CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE COMPLETELY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
QUIET LONG TERM CONTINUES. MAIN FEATURES TO NOTE WILL BE LIGHT
SNOWFALL CHANCES LATE THU INTO FRI AND WARMER AIRMASS LATE THIS WEEK
AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO MOVE WELL N OF THE CWA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 06Z FRI AND 18Z FRI. WHILE THE FRONT WILL HELP FORCE SOME
PRECIP...THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE A SECONDARY WAVE THAT
MODELS SHOW CATCHING UP TO WITH AND MOVING WITH THE FRONT AS IS
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT AND MINOR SNOW OVER WRN
UPPER MI THU...BUT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
FRI. AT THIS POINT...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE PRETTY RAPIDLY ON WED FROM A RANGE OF -15C TO
-20C AT 12Z WED TO AROUND -11C BY 00Z THU WITH SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
GIVEN A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TUE NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO AND THAT MODELS INDICATE MIXING TO ONLY
AOB 900MB...HIGH TEMPS ON WED WILL ONLY RANGE FROM 10F-20F...WARMEST
NEAR THE WI BORDER. AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES TO THE CENTRAL CWA
AROUND 00Z FRI WITH 850MB TEMP APPROACHING 0C AS THE RIDGE PASSES.
SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 850MB
WINDS UP TO 45KTS...LEADING TO SFC GUSTS UP TO 25KTS OR HIGHER.
INCREASED HIGHS ON THU TO 20F-30F...BUT COULD SEE HIGHS ABOVE 30
OVER WRN UPPER MI. FRI SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WARMEST OVER SCENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT
ARRIVE AS EARLY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI...850MB
TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN TO THE -10C TO -15C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. MODELS THEN INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LIMITED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
-SN/MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU
THE REGION WILL END W TO E THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS WILL
MOST LIKELY BE THE RULE AT KIWD/KCMX INTO THE EARLY AFTN. AT
KSAW...DEVELOPING UPSLOPE NORTHERLY WIND MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS
LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
WITH LAKE SUPERIOR NEARLY COMPLETELY ICE COVERED...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATOCU OFF THE LAKE...AND WITH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE HIGH...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE
RULE TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
EXPECT WINDS TODAY MOSTLY UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN
ONTARIO...EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-25KT. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. WHILE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT WINDS
BEHIND TROF...WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
506 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WHAT`S LEFT OF THE DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER NRN QUEBEC SHEARING EASTWARD AND
WITH IT...THE CORE OF THE BITTER COLD AIR. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROF
LINGERS OVER THE ERN CONUS WHILE TO THE W...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
EXTENDS OFF THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE WRN CONUS. SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES 24HRS AGO IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAIN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM
HAS PASSED S OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
STREAK HAS ASSISTED IN SPREADING -SN ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE
NIGHT. WITH CLOUDS/-SN...TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS...A GOOD 30 DEGREES HIGHER IN SOME CASES.
THERE ARE NO SUBZERO READINGS TO BE FOUND THIS MORNING.
PER RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD -SN WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ESE AND
WILL END W TO E DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH A FEW -SHSN/FLURRIES MAY
LINGER INTO THE AFTN CNTRL AND E ALONG LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED WIND
SHIFT. WITH INCREASING SUN ANGLE...WE`RE GETTING INTO THE TIME OF
YEAR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DIURNAL -SHSN DEVELOPMENT. HIGHRES
RAPID REFRESH IS PARTICULARLY NOTABLE WITH AFTN -SHSN IT DEVELOPS
ALONG WIND SHIFT. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS N TO
LOWER 20S S. AS WINDS SHIFT OFF ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS
MAY FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG THE LAKE IN THE AFTN.
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF STRATOCU OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT UNLESS THE N TO NE
WINDS OPEN UP SUFFICIENT WATER/BKN ICE ON THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE
LAKE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE S AND W IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE THRU THE
DAKOTAS/MN. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER NRN ONTARIO...PRES
GRADIENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP DURING THE NIGHT AND
PREVENT TEMPS FROM CRASHING. ON THE OTHER HAND...VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA (PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO
15-25PCT OF NORMAL...LOWEST OVER THE E). WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ADVECTING SHALLOW VERY COLD AIR S AND W OFF ONTARIO AND ACROSS
NEARLY COMPLETELY FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR...FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR MINS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY COLUMN. ALTHOUGH
FCST MINS RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO THE LOWER -TEENS...TEMPS IN
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS COULD FALL TOWARD -20F IF SKIES END UP MAINLY
CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE COMPLETELY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
QUIET LONG TERM CONTINUES. MAIN FEATURES TO NOTE WILL BE LIGHT
SNOWFALL CHANCES LATE THU INTO FRI AND WARMER AIRMASS LATE THIS WEEK
AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO MOVE WELL N OF THE CWA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 06Z FRI AND 18Z FRI. WHILE THE FRONT WILL HELP FORCE SOME
PRECIP...THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE A SECONDARY WAVE THAT
MODELS SHOW CATCHING UP TO WITH AND MOVING WITH THE FRONT AS IS
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT AND MINOR SNOW OVER WRN
UPPER MI THU...BUT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
FRI. AT THIS POINT...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE PRETTY RAPIDLY ON WED FROM A RANGE OF -15C TO
-20C AT 12Z WED TO AROUND -11C BY 00Z THU WITH SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
GIVEN A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TUE NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO AND THAT MODELS INDICATE MIXING TO ONLY
AOB 900MB...HIGH TEMPS ON WED WILL ONLY RANGE FROM 10F-20F...WARMEST
NEAR THE WI BORDER. AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES TO THE CENTRAL CWA
AROUND 00Z FRI WITH 850MB TEMP APPROACHING 0C AS THE RIDGE PASSES.
SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 850MB
WINDS UP TO 45KTS...LEADING TO SFC GUSTS UP TO 25KTS OR HIGHER.
INCREASED HIGHS ON THU TO 20F-30F...BUT COULD SEE HIGHS ABOVE 30
OVER WRN UPPER MI. FRI SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WARMEST OVER SCENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT
ARRIVE AS EARLY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI...850MB
TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN TO THE -10C TO -15C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. MODELS THEN INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LIMITED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING. IFR VSBY WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT CMX BUT ALSO BRIEFLY
POSSIBLE AT KIWD/KCMX. EXPECT THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO VFR AT IWD/CMX IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
EXPECT WINDS TODAY MOSTLY UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN
ONTARIO...EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-25KT. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. WHILE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT WINDS
BEHIND TROF...WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
557 AM PST TUE MAR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL BE HERE
FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...SPOTTER REPORTS FROM SPRING CREEK...AS WELL AS WEBCAMS
AT LAMOILLE AND PEQUOP SUMMITS...ARE SHOWING SNOW FALLING IN THESE
LOCATIONS. ROADS ARE SLUSHY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF
INCH OR SO IN SPRING CREEK/LAMOILLE SUMMIT. EMIGRANT AND PEQUOP
SUMMITS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR SO...WITH THE SUMMIT LOCATIONS
RECEIVING 1 TO 3 INCHES. SPRING CREEK AND LAMOILLE SUMMIT SHOULD
SEE ABOUT AN INCH OR SO. ALSO 3KM HRRR IS SHOWING PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEVADA LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED POPS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FOR
OTHER ELEMENTS...GRIDS THIS MORNING WERE REFRESHED TO INCLUDE A LOWER
SNOW LEVEL IN NORTHEAST NEVADA...ALONG WITH UPDATED SNOW AMOUNT
AND RELATED GRIDS. TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 240 AM /
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS STARTING TO
SHIFT EASTWARD PER THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
PRETTY ROBUST WITH READINGS OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES COMMON IN
HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN ELKO COUNTIES. FOR THE MOST PART...SNOW
LEVELS APPEAR TO BE AROUND THE 6500 FOOT RANGE. AS MENTIONED...THE
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLOW MOVING OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA DURING THE MORNING. IT IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE
EXITTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN TO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY...MAKING WAY FOR A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. 700 MB WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO 2 TO
3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. EURO/GFS/DGEX/GEM IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN DIFFERENCES EMERGE ON MONDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AS 700MB TEMPS DROP TO -6 TO -8C ON FRIDAY MORNING ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW...AT THIS POINT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OR HEADLINES AS MOST PRECIP WILL
FALL AHEAD OF COLDER AIR...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
PW`S NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THURSDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED...GUIDANCE AS WELL AS 90 AGL WINDS SHOW 30 TO 40 KNOTS NEAR
COLD FRONT. FRIDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BUT LINGERING
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT INSTABILITY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
700 TEMPS OF -8 ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SATURDAY A STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE NEAR 7000 FEET OR HIGHER.
MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...SO ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND SKY FOR MONDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KWMC...KEKO AND KELY. RAIN SHOULD END BY LATER THIS
MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH A 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS/VIS. ALSO A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OF A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KELY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
86/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
639 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TEMPERATURE AND WEATHER. FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
A BIT FURTHER INLAND WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING 33. TWEAKED THE
TEMPERATURES A TAD WARMER THROUGH 2 PM TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
STILL HAVE AN AREA OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COASTAL BEND MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. BECAUSE
OF THIS...TWEAKED THE RAIN CHANCES DOWNWARD A BIT OVER THE
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER W TX
THIS MORNING WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS OVER SE TX INDICATING AT LEAST
SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE AREA. MODERATE RA/FZRA/PL SEEM TO
BE MAIN PRECIP TYPES FALLING FROM N TO S ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF
THE HOUSTON TERMINALS ARE HOVERING AROUND FREEZING SO HARD TO KNOW
HOW MUCH ICE ACCUMULATION THERE WILL BE AT TERMINALS. KHOU HAS
BEEN REPORTING RA WHILE KSGR/KIAH HAVE GONE BETWEEN SLEET/FZRA.
MEANWHILE KLBX HAS BEEN REPORTING SLEET RIGHT AT FREEZING. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP FZRA/PL IN KSGR/KIAH TAFS BUT -RA/RA FOR KHOU. BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...COULD HAVE PRECIP ENDING BY 15-17Z WHICH IS AN HOUR
OR TWO FASTER THAN HRRR FORECAST TRENDS. OVERALL THINK HRRR HAS
BEST DEPICTION OF PRECIP TRENDS SO TAFS LARGELY LEANED ON THAT
GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME MORE PRECIP AROUND 00Z WED
TIMEFRAME. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AS WELL BUT VERY LIGHT PRECIP IF
ANY. IN THE EXTENDED...DID NOT SEE ANYTHING WRONG WITH GFS LAMP AS
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN PROBLEM OF THE MORNING WILL BE THE IMPACT AND EXTENT OF THE
WINTER WEATHER. FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE THE WINTER STORM WARNING
AND ADVISORY PRODUCTS.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS GENERATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WERE MOVING THROUGH SE TX AT 4 AM. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WAS FALLING OVER MOST OF THE INLAND COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MADISONVILLE TO TRINITY. FREEZING RAIN WAS ALSO BEING
REPORTED INTO SOME OF INLAND AREAS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES WEST OF
GALVESTON COUNTY. OVER HARRIS AND GALVESTON COUNTIES...THE
FREEZING LINE WAS A BIT FURTHER INLAND.
SOME ADDITIONAL WET BULBING COULD OCCUR IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE WAS ABOVE FREEZING AT 4 AM. THE NAM12 AND MAV GUIDANCE
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES. DECIDED
TO KEEP THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND HOUSTON...TRINITY...AND MADISON
COUNTIES IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL
SEE LESSER AMOUNTS WHILE THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE MORE OF A
MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WARNING UP FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES AS MOST WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT ICING FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTY.
HOWEVER...HARRIS COUNTY WILL SEE A VARIETY...FROM ALMOST ALL RAIN
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST AND A WINTRY MIX OR ALL FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING DATA SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DO NOT THINK THE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GET OUT OF
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH A SURFACE
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GULF TOWARD FL.
A ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS SE TX
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY PERIOD. THE NEXT ONE WILL PASS
TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FOR NOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RAINFALL POTENTIAL. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE AND BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
40
MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS IN OFFSHORE AREAS APPEAR TO BE ROUGHLY AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE BAYS AND NEAR SHORE. WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING SO WILL RUN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR OFFSHORE AREAS THROUGH NOON AND CAUTION FOR BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL LIKELY HAVE CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A COASTAL LOW FORMING OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
39
AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF MUCH COLDER CLOUD TOPS MOVING
OVER THE AREA INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION. ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES BEING DETECTED SO FOR 09Z UPDATE ADDED TEMPO GROUP FOR
KIAH/KHOU/KSGR FOR POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM AND SLEET. STILL
THINK DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FZRA WITH TEMPS NEAR/BELOW
FREEZING. LIKE TRENDS OF HRRR RUNS WHICH HAVE PRECIP SLOWING DOWN
AROUND 15-18Z AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. CONCERNED THAT 06Z NAM
SHOWING AN AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIP BY 00Z WED MAINLY FOR
KSGR/KHOU. QUESTIONABLE IF TEMPS WILL BE BACK BELOW FREEZING AT
THIS TIME OR IF WET BULB THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT FZRA/SLEET.
ALSO NOT SURE IF CIGS WILL BREAK OUT OF IFR/MVFR AND BECOME VFR.
STILL TIME TO EVALUATE FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 38 33 57 36 61 / 60 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 37 33 56 39 63 / 60 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 41 41 56 46 60 / 80 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...MADISON...MATAGORDA...TRINITY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...
FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...LIBERTY...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
SAN JACINTO...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
540 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER W TX
THIS MORNING WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS OVER SE TX INDICATING AT LEAST
SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE AREA. MODERATE RA/FZRA/PL SEEM TO
BE MAIN PRECIP TYPES FALLING FROM N TO S ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF
THE HOUSTON TERMINALS ARE HOVERING AROUND FREEZING SO HARD TO KNOW
HOW MUCH ICE ACCUMULATION THERE WILL BE AT TERMINALS. KHOU HAS
BEEN REPORTING RA WHILE KSGR/KIAH HAVE GONE BETWEEN SLEET/FZRA.
MEANWHILE KLBX HAS BEEN REPORTING SLEET RIGHT AT FREEZING. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP FZRA/PL IN KSGR/KIAH TAFS BUT -RA/RA FOR KHOU. BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...COULD HAVE PRECIP ENDING BY 15-17Z WHICH IS AN HOUR
OR TWO FASTER THAN HRRR FORECAST TRENDS. OVERALL THINK HRRR HAS
BEST DEPICTION OF PRECIP TRENDS SO TAFS LARGELY LEANED ON THAT
GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME MORE PRECIP AROUND 00Z WED
TIMEFRAME. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AS WELL BUT VERY LIGHT PRECIP IF
ANY. IN THE EXTENDED...DID NOT SEE ANYTHING WRONG WITH GFS LAMP AS
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN PROBLEM OF THE MORNING WILL BE THE IMPACT AND EXTENT OF THE
WINTER WEATHER. FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE THE WINTER STORM WARNING
AND ADVISORY PRODUCTS.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS GENERATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WERE MOVING THROUGH SE TX AT 4 AM. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WAS FALLING OVER MOST OF THE INLAND COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MADISONVILLE TO TRINITY. FREEZING RAIN WAS ALSO BEING
REPORTED INTO SOME OF INLAND AREAS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES WEST OF
GALVESTON COUNTY. OVER HARRIS AND GALVESTON COUNTIES...THE
FREEZING LINE WAS A BIT FURTHER INLAND.
SOME ADDITIONAL WET BULBING COULD OCCUR IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE WAS ABOVE FREEZING AT 4 AM. THE NAM12 AND MAV GUIDANCE
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES. DECIDED
TO KEEP THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND HOUSTON...TRINITY...AND MADISON
COUNTIES IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL
SEE LESSER AMOUNTS WHILE THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE MORE OF A
MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WARNING UP FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES AS MOST WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT ICING FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTY.
HOWEVER...HARRIS COUNTY WILL SEE A VARIETY...FROM ALMOST ALL RAIN
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST AND A WINTRY MIX OR ALL FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING DATA SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DO NOT THINK THE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GET OUT OF
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH A SURFACE
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GULF TOWARD FL.
A ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS SE TX
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY PERIOD. THE NEXT ONE WILL PASS
TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FOR NOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RAINFALL POTENTIAL. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE AND BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
40
MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS IN OFFSHORE AREAS APPEAR TO BE ROUGHLY AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE BAYS AND NEAR SHORE. WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING SO WILL RUN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR OFFSHORE AREAS THROUGH NOON AND CAUTION FOR BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL LIKELY HAVE CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A COASTAL LOW FORMING OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
39
AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF MUCH COLDER CLOUD TOPS MOVING
OVER THE AREA INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION. ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES BEING DETECTED SO FOR 09Z UPDATE ADDED TEMPO GROUP FOR
KIAH/KHOU/KSGR FOR POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM AND SLEET. STILL
THINK DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FZRA WITH TEMPS NEAR/BELOW
FREEZING. LIKE TRENDS OF HRRR RUNS WHICH HAVE PRECIP SLOWING DOWN
AROUND 15-18Z AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. CONCERNED THAT 06Z NAM
SHOWING AN AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIP BY 00Z WED MAINLY FOR
KSGR/KHOU. QUESTIONABLE IF TEMPS WILL BE BACK BELOW FREEZING AT
THIS TIME OR IF WET BULB THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT FZRA/SLEET.
ALSO NOT SURE IF CIGS WILL BREAK OUT OF IFR/MVFR AND BECOME VFR.
STILL TIME TO EVALUATE FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 38 33 57 36 61 / 60 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 37 33 56 39 63 / 80 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 41 41 56 46 60 / 80 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...MADISON...MATAGORDA...TRINITY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...
FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...LIBERTY...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
SAN JACINTO...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
436 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN PROBLEM OF THE MORNING WILL BE THE IMPACT AND EXTENT OF THE
WINTER WEATHER. FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE THE WINTER STORM WARNING
AND ADVISORY PRODUCTS.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS GENERATING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WERE MOVING THROUGH SE TX AT 4 AM. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WAS FALLING OVER MOST OF THE INLAND COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MADISONVILLE TO TRINITY. FREEZING RAIN WAS ALSO BEING
REPORTED INTO SOME OF INLAND AREAS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES WEST OF
GALVESTON COUNTY. OVER HARRIS AND GALVESTON COUNTIES...THE
FREEZING LINE WAS A BIT FURTHER INLAND.
SOME ADDITIONAL WET BULBING COULD OCCUR IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE WAS ABOVE FREEZING AT 4 AM. THE NAM12 AND MAV GUIDANCE
INDICATED THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES. DECIDED
TO KEEP THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND HOUSTON...TRINITY...AND MADISON
COUNTIES IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL
SEE LESSER AMOUNTS WHILE THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE MORE OF A
MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WARNING UP FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES AS MOST WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT ICING FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTY.
HOWEVER...HARRIS COUNTY WILL SEE A VARIETY...FROM ALMOST ALL RAIN
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST AND A WINTRY MIX OR ALL FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TODAY. MODEL SOUNDING DATA SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DO NOT THINK THE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GET OUT OF
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH A SURFACE
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GULF TOWARD FL.
A ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS SE TX
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY PERIOD. THE NEXT ONE WILL PASS
TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FOR NOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RAINFALL POTENTIAL. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE AND BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
40
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS IN OFFSHORE AREAS APPEAR TO BE ROUGHLY AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE BAYS AND NEAR SHORE. WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING SO WILL RUN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR OFFSHORE AREAS THROUGH NOON AND CAUTION FOR BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL LIKELY HAVE CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A COASTAL LOW FORMING OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
39
&&
.AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF MUCH COLDER CLOUD TOPS MOVING
OVER THE AREA INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION. ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES BEING DETECTED SO FOR 09Z UPDATE ADDED TEMPO GROUP FOR
KIAH/KHOU/KSGR FOR POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM AND SLEET. STILL
THINK DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FZRA WITH TEMPS NEAR/BELOW
FREEZING. LIKE TRENDS OF HRRR RUNS WHICH HAVE PRECIP SLOWING DOWN
AROUND 15-18Z AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. CONCERNED THAT 06Z NAM
SHOWING AN AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIP BY 00Z WED MAINLY FOR
KSGR/KHOU. QUESTIONABLE IF TEMPS WILL BE BACK BELOW FREEZING AT
THIS TIME OR IF WET BULB THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT FZRA/SLEET.
ALSO NOT SURE IF CIGS WILL BREAK OUT OF IFR/MVFR AND BECOME VFR.
STILL TIME TO EVALUATE FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 38 33 57 36 61 / 60 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 37 33 56 39 63 / 80 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 41 41 56 46 60 / 80 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...MADISON...MATAGORDA...TRINITY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...
FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...LIBERTY...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
SAN JACINTO...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/DISCUSSION...39
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
427 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH WAA AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE THAT TRACKS EAST
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER SRN WI IN RRQ OF UPPER JET MAX THAT
SHIFTS EAST OF AREA BY 12Z. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR LOCATIONS
FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH BY 8 AM...BUT VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL
LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
FORCING AS SECOND WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...BUT WARM ADVECTION RAISES 925MB TEMPS
ENOUGH TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH AROUND 20 IN THE NORTHEAST.
.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
NEXT ROUND OF SNOW EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE
IN ULD WITH LFQ OF NEXT JETLET THAT CROSSES REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z WED. BEST LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND COLUMN SATURATION OVER
THE SW 2/3 OF CWA...SO WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THERE TAPERING
OFF RAPIDLY TO CHANCE POPS IN THE NE THIRD. 06Z NAM SIMILAR TO 00Z
RUN IN MAINTAINING AN 8 TO 10 MICROBAR/SEC OMEGA MAX IN THE DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE OVER THE SW CWA...BUT HAS BOOSTED QPF UP TO 0.20 INCH.
MODEST LAPSE RATES AROUND 600 MB STEEPEN ABOVE 500 MB...BUT
INGREDIENTS PLOTS INDICATE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWS WILL
BE SOUTHWEST OF CWA. UPPED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHWEST TO
AROUND 3 INCHES...WITH LATER SHIFTS NEEDING TO ASSES THE NEED FOR AN
ADVISORY.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW HANG ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXITS THE AREA. SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY MOST PLACES AS SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. DID KEEP SOME SMALL POPS NEAR THE LAKE
THOUGH...AS SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BRING A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. GIVEN MUCH OF THE LAKE IS COVERED IN ICE THOUGH...AND
SFC TO 850 MB DELTA T VALUES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES AT
BEST...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW IN ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THURSDAY
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S...THOUGH STILL QUITE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MOST OF THE MODELS HOLD OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING TEMPS AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT...LOOKS LIKE A MIX OF PRECIP POSSIBLE FOR THIS
SHORTWAVE. CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW OR SLEET THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW/SLEET/RAIN ALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE 30S. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
EVENT.
.SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING SOME DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE. THE BIGGEST
ISSUE FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER HIGH THAN THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN...ALLOWING FOR A SLOWER RETURN OF MILDER TEMPS. GENERALLY
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...AS THE GFS SUGGESTS TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO THE LOW 20S...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
PUSHING 40.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LITTLE PRECIP MONDAY...SO WENT WITH SOME
LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW. GFS FINALLY HAS THE MILDER AIR INTO
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY...SO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS... THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL EXIT EASTERN WI BY 11Z. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BROADER
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IS AT
THE MS RIVER AT 10Z AND WILL BE REACHING KMSN BY 12Z...KUES
AROUND 1330Z...KENW BY 14Z AND KMKE BETWEEN 14Z AND 1430Z. CIGS
WILL RAPIDLY RAISE TO BETWEEN 4K FT AND 6K FT BEHIND THE SNOW.
WATCHING LIGHT SNOW OVER SE MN INTO W CENTRAL WI WITH A SECOND
WAVE THAT HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS HAD BEEN KEEPING NORTH OF TAF
SITES. 09Z RAP NOW BRINGING A SMALL POCKET OF SNOW TO KMSN BY 15Z
AND THROUGH KUES AND KMKE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST AS NEED AT ISSUANCE.
NEXT ROUND OF SNOW COMES THIS EVENING WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. 00Z
MODELS INDICATING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS...WITH 1
TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN TAF SITES AND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
FOR KMSN TONIGHT. 06Z NAM TRYING TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW
OVER THE SW CWA THAT COULD EDGE TOWARDS KMSN BUT WILL AWAIT LATER
RUNS BEFORE RAISING AMOUNTS/LOWERING CONDITIONS
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
406 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
256 PM CST
SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE FIRST
ARRIVING TONIGHT. THE SECOND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK. A BRIEF
WARM UP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...TEMPS REBOUND MONDAY WITH DARE
I SAY NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED?
REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TRICKY FORECAST PERIOD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENT THAT THE
ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE SNOW AT SOME POINT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW AND FOR HOW
LONG.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND IT
WILL SHIFT EAST AND FILL TONIGHT. ALOFT THE SHORTWAVE THAT FORCED
SNOW THIS MORNING IS TO OUR EAST WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH
TEXAS. THE NEXT TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES AND IT WILL
PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
A LARGE HIGH IS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND IT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE FEATURES
A DEEP LAYER OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT COINCIDES WITH A SATURATED
LAYER. HOWEVER...THE SATURATED LAYER IS WARMER THAN THE IDEAL
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...BUT IT IS BELOW 0C. SNOW IS EXPECTED...BUT
IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE FORCING INDICATES. ALSO
PUSHED THE TIMING OF THE SNOW BACK BY A FEW HOURS. THE NAM12 LOOKS
TOO FAST WHILE THE RAP IS TOO SLOW. AS SUCH USED OUR LOCAL WRF MODEL
FOR TIMING...AND AMOUNTS AS THE WRF SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE PRECIP. EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF I-88 AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
SOUTH OF I-88. THE 4 INCH AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED ABOUT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING 2 TO 3 INCHES. NOTE THESE VALUES ARE LESS THAN THE
MAJORITY OF COBB OUTPUT...AND THIS IS DUE TO THE CONCERNS ABOUT SNOW
GROWTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF FORCING...DECIDED TO
SLIGHTLY RAISE SNOWFALL TOTALS.
SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN IL...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3AM. THE BAND WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
MID MORNING...AND MAY SHIFT QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. THE
LOCAL WRF INDICATED THE BAND WOULD SHIFT SOUTH QUICKLY...BUT DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT FAST. SNOW IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. FORCING WEAKENS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SO EXPECTING THE
SNOW SOUTH OF I-80 TO BE SLOW AND STEADY.
IN ADDITION TO THE BAND OF SNOW...MAY SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW RIGHT NOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST.
DELTA T/S ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THE THICK ICE COVER WILL LIMIT
MIXING. BUT INCLUDED A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN PERIODS OF FLURRIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE JUMPED WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WEST.
HOWEVER THINKING WE WILL STILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. SO ENDED UP WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS...AND TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS ALONG THE LAKE. TEMPS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TOMORROW WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL TO THE MID TEENS OVER NW INDIANA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WHILE
ITS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 30. WINDS TURN SOUTH
BEHIND THE HIGH AND WAA KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING AND POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 40S!
A SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH ITS SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL.
HAVE IT STARTING AS RAIN AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS THE COLD
AIR FUNNELS BACK IN. 850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -3C AND THE
MAIN POINT IS THE COLD AIR REALLY IS NOT THAT COLD AND IT WILL NOT
LAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S.
EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
AND THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLDER AIR SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WARM UP. SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY HELP TEMPS BECOME NORMAL IF
NOT ABOVE NORMAL. RAISED ALLBLEND TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO AND
STILL MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS FEATURES
PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SNOW DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY WED
MORNING...WITH AT LEAST PERIODIC IFR VSBY LIKELY
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
QUIET CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INCLUDING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...AS WEAKER SURFACE
PATTERN IN PLACE. VFR CEILINGS ARE TRYING TO DEPART EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CLOUD DECK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP VFR CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR A TAD LONGER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER MOVES BACK OVERHEAD...INCLUDING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUD DECK AROUND THE 2500-0300 FT RANGE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO PROVIDE SNOW
AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE START TIME.
ALTHOUGH...MORE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ACTUAL DURATION OF BETTER
SNOWFALL. HAVE THIS BETTER SNOW LASTING THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT
ITS POSSIBLE THE DURATION COULD LAST INTO THE MID DAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS SEVERAL FACTORS COULD COME INTO PLAY INCLUDING A LAKE
COMPONENT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON HOLDING ONTO A
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. MORE THAN LIKELY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT DID TRY AND PROVIDE A
DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WOULD BE MORE OF A WEST
NORTHWEST COMPONENT. THEN EXPECT AN NORTHEAST TO EAST DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TIMING/INTENSITY
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINDER OF FORECAST ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY. CHANCE OF
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
224 PM CST
THE MAIN STORY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IS LIKELY THE ICE COVERAGE WHICH
IS NOW NEAR 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE LAKE...THE HIGHEST SO FAR THIS
SEASON. WE WILL START TO SEE SOME DAYS WITH TEMPERATURE PUSHING THE
FREEZING MARK DURING THE AFTERNOONS...INCLUDING FRIDAY AND A FEW
DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A SLOW MELT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH
WESTERLY WINDS TURNING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A RIDGE AXIS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS
TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY...AND THEN SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT DOES
TIGHTEN SOME ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESHENING UP INTO THE 15 TO 25
KT RANGE...PERHAPS A FEW 30 KT GUSTS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
256 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
256 PM CST
SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE FIRST
ARRIVING TONIGHT. THE SECOND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK. A BRIEF
WARM UP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...TEMPS REBOUND MONDAY WITH DARE
I SAY NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED?
REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TRICKY FORECAST PERIOD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENT THAT THE
ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE SNOW AT SOME POINT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW AND FOR HOW
LONG.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND IT
WILL SHIFT EAST AND FILL TONIGHT. ALOFT THE SHORTWAVE THAT FORCED
SNOW THIS MORNING IS TO OUR EAST WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH
TEXAS. THE NEXT TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES AND IT WILL
PASS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
A LARGE HIGH IS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND IT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE FEATURES
A DEEP LAYER OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT COINCIDES WITH A SATURATED
LAYER. HOWEVER...THE SATURATED LAYER IS WARMER THAN THE IDEAL
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...BUT IT IS BELOW 0C. SNOW IS EXPECTED...BUT
IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS HEAVY AS THE FORCING INDICATES. ALSO
PUSHED THE TIMING OF THE SNOW BACK BY A FEW HOURS. THE NAM12 LOOKS
TOO FAST WHILE THE RAP IS TOO SLOW. AS SUCH USED OUR LOCAL WRF MODEL
FOR TIMING...AND AMOUNTS AS THE WRF SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE PRECIP. EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF I-88 AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
SOUTH OF I-88. THE 4 INCH AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED ABOUT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING 2 TO 3 INCHES. NOTE THESE VALUES ARE LESS THAN THE
MAJORITY OF COBB OUTPUT...AND THIS IS DUE TO THE CONCERNS ABOUT SNOW
GROWTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF FORCING...DECIDED TO
SLIGHTLY RAISE SNOWFALL TOTALS.
SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN IL...MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3AM. THE BAND WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
MID MORNING...AND MAY SHIFT QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. THE
LOCAL WRF INDICATED THE BAND WOULD SHIFT SOUTH QUICKLY...BUT DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THAT FAST. SNOW IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. FORCING WEAKENS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SO EXPECTING THE
SNOW SOUTH OF I-80 TO BE SLOW AND STEADY.
IN ADDITION TO THE BAND OF SNOW...MAY SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW RIGHT NOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST.
DELTA T/S ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THE THICK ICE COVER WILL LIMIT
MIXING. BUT INCLUDED A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN PERIODS OF FLURRIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR TEMPS...TEMPS HAVE JUMPED WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WEST.
HOWEVER THINKING WE WILL STILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND. SO ENDED UP WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS...AND TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS ALONG THE LAKE. TEMPS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TOMORROW WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL TO THE MID TEENS OVER NW INDIANA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WHILE
ITS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 30. WINDS TURN SOUTH
BEHIND THE HIGH AND WAA KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING AND POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 40S!
A SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH ITS SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL.
HAVE IT STARTING AS RAIN AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS THE COLD
AIR FUNNELS BACK IN. 850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -3C AND THE
MAIN POINT IS THE COLD AIR REALLY IS NOT THAT COLD AND IT WILL NOT
LAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S.
EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
AND THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLDER AIR SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WARM UP. SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY HELP TEMPS BECOME NORMAL IF
NOT ABOVE NORMAL. RAISED ALLBLEND TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO AND
STILL MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS FEATURES
PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* VARYING WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT REMAINING LIGHT.
* VFR CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
QUIET CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INCLUDING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...AS WEAKER SURFACE
PATTERN IN PLACE. VFR CEILINGS ARE TRYING TO DEPART EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CLOUD DECK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP VFR CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR A TAD LONGER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER MOVES BACK OVERHEAD...INCLUDING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUD DECK AROUND THE 2500-0300 FT RANGE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO PROVIDE SNOW
AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE START TIME.
ALTHOUGH...MORE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH ACTUAL DURATION OF BETTER
SNOWFALL. HAVE THIS BETTER SNOW LASTING THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT
ITS POSSIBLE THE DURATION COULD LAST INTO THE MID DAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS SEVERAL FACTORS COULD COME INTO PLAY INCLUDING A LAKE
COMPONENT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON HOLDING ONTO A
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. MORE THAN LIKELY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT DID TRY AND PROVIDE A
DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WOULD BE MORE OF A WEST
NORTHWEST COMPONENT. THEN EXPECT AN NORTHEAST TO EAST DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH CEILING TRENDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
* LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SNOW TRENDS...INCLUDING EXACT
TIMING/DURATION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY. CHANCE OF
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
224 PM CST
THE MAIN STORY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IS LIKELY THE ICE COVERAGE WHICH
IS NOW NEAR 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE LAKE...THE HIGHEST SO FAR THIS
SEASON. WE WILL START TO SEE SOME DAYS WITH TEMPERATURE PUSHING THE
FREEZING MARK DURING THE AFTERNOONS...INCLUDING FRIDAY AND A FEW
DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A SLOW MELT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WITH
WESTERLY WINDS TURNING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A RIDGE AXIS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS
TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY...AND THEN SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT DOES
TIGHTEN SOME ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW FRESHENING UP INTO THE 15 TO 25
KT RANGE...PERHAPS A FEW 30 KT GUSTS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM AS WAS EARLIER
CONFIGURED. TEMPERATURES HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME CLIMBING ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. 12Z RUN OF HRRR INDICATED A BACK
EDGE TO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THE ADVISORY AREA THAT SHOULD
CLEAR THE AREA AROUND 21Z. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB A FEW DEGREES AS
PRECIPITATION ENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN PLACE...AND DO
NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HAVE MENTION OF -FZRA IN KMCB AND KBTR FOR NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO PLAIN -RA OR ENDS. 35
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS MORNING.
THE 12Z SOUNDING AT KLIX INDICATED A STRONG INVERSION PRESENT
BETWEEN 950 AND 850 MB. TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING UP TO
ABOUT 940 MB...AND THEN ABOVE FREEZING FROM THIS LEVEL TO 645 MB.
THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WAS NEARLY SATURATED BELOW THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION AND IN THE 600 TO 525 MB LAYER. THERE WAS A SUBSTANTIAL
DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 MB AND 650 MB. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
WAS 0.75 INCH...UP FROM 0.38 INCH YESTERDAY EVENING. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WERE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THOSE LEVELS. 11
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/
UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR AN AREA
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM TYLERTOWN TO BATON ROUGE. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SPREADING PRECIPITATION EASTWARD A
LITTLE FASTER THAN WAS THAN THOUGHT EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS UPDATE
BRINGS OUR FORECAST AND ASSOCIATED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MORE IN
LINE WITH ADJACENT WEATHER OFFICES.
SHORT TERM...
AS THE RAIN FALLS THROUGH THE COLD DRY AIR...EVAPORATION COOLING
OF THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS PRODUCING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SLEET
THIS MORNING. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH
MAINLY ON ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...SWERV AND TWO METS FOR MARDI GRAS SUPPORT IN NEW ORLEANS.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ALONG PEARL RIVER.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 35 33 58 41 / 80 40 10 40
BTR 36 34 57 40 / 90 40 10 30
ASD 40 38 58 45 / 100 60 20 30
MSY 41 38 58 48 / 100 60 20 30
GPT 42 41 60 48 / 100 70 20 30
PQL 42 40 59 47 / 100 80 20 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN
TANGIPAHOA...POINTE COUPEE...ST. HELENA...WASHINGTON...WEST
BATON ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.
GM...NONE.
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AMITE...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1257 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WHAT`S LEFT OF THE DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER NRN QUEBEC SHEARING EASTWARD AND
WITH IT...THE CORE OF THE BITTER COLD AIR. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROF
LINGERS OVER THE ERN CONUS WHILE TO THE W...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
EXTENDS OFF THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE WRN CONUS. SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES 24HRS AGO IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAIN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM
HAS PASSED S OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
STREAK HAS ASSISTED IN SPREADING -SN ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE
NIGHT. WITH CLOUDS/-SN...TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS...A GOOD 30 DEGREES HIGHER IN SOME CASES.
THERE ARE NO SUBZERO READINGS TO BE FOUND THIS MORNING.
PER RADAR TRENDS...WIDESPREAD -SN WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ESE AND
WILL END W TO E DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH A FEW -SHSN/FLURRIES MAY
LINGER INTO THE AFTN CNTRL AND E ALONG LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED WIND
SHIFT. WITH INCREASING SUN ANGLE...WE`RE GETTING INTO THE TIME OF
YEAR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DIURNAL -SHSN DEVELOPMENT. HIGHRES
RAPID REFRESH IS PARTICULARLY NOTABLE WITH AFTN -SHSN IT DEVELOPS
ALONG WIND SHIFT. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS N TO
LOWER 20S S. AS WINDS SHIFT OFF ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS
MAY FALL SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG THE LAKE IN THE AFTN.
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF STRATOCU OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT UNLESS THE N TO NE
WINDS OPEN UP SUFFICIENT WATER/BKN ICE ON THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE
LAKE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE S AND W IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE THRU THE
DAKOTAS/MN. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER NRN ONTARIO...PRES
GRADIENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP DURING THE NIGHT AND
PREVENT TEMPS FROM CRASHING. ON THE OTHER HAND...VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA (PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO
15-25PCT OF NORMAL...LOWEST OVER THE E). WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ADVECTING SHALLOW VERY COLD AIR S AND W OFF ONTARIO AND ACROSS
NEARLY COMPLETELY FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR...FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR MINS...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE DRY COLUMN. ALTHOUGH
FCST MINS RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO THE LOWER -TEENS...TEMPS IN
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS COULD FALL TOWARD -20F IF SKIES END UP MAINLY
CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE COMPLETELY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
QUIET LONG TERM CONTINUES. MAIN FEATURES TO NOTE WILL BE LIGHT
SNOWFALL CHANCES LATE THU INTO FRI AND WARMER AIRMASS LATE THIS WEEK
AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO MOVE WELL N OF THE CWA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 06Z FRI AND 18Z FRI. WHILE THE FRONT WILL HELP FORCE SOME
PRECIP...THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE A SECONDARY WAVE THAT
MODELS SHOW CATCHING UP TO WITH AND MOVING WITH THE FRONT AS IS
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT AND MINOR SNOW OVER WRN
UPPER MI THU...BUT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
FRI. AT THIS POINT...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE PRETTY RAPIDLY ON WED FROM A RANGE OF -15C TO
-20C AT 12Z WED TO AROUND -11C BY 00Z THU WITH SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
GIVEN A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TUE NIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO AND THAT MODELS INDICATE MIXING TO ONLY
AOB 900MB...HIGH TEMPS ON WED WILL ONLY RANGE FROM 10F-20F...WARMEST
NEAR THE WI BORDER. AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES TO THE CENTRAL CWA
AROUND 00Z FRI WITH 850MB TEMP APPROACHING 0C AS THE RIDGE PASSES.
SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 850MB
WINDS UP TO 45KTS...LEADING TO SFC GUSTS UP TO 25KTS OR HIGHER.
INCREASED HIGHS ON THU TO 20F-30F...BUT COULD SEE HIGHS ABOVE 30
OVER WRN UPPER MI. FRI SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30...WARMEST OVER SCENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT
ARRIVE AS EARLY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI...850MB
TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN TO THE -10C TO -15C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. MODELS THEN INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LIMITED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
EXPECT ANY LINGERING DIURNAL STRATOCU TO DISSIPATE OVER THE TAF
SITES BY EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER UNDER BUILDING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE. NEARLY COMPLETELY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
VIRTUALLY ELIMINATE STRATOCU FORMATION UNDER DEVELOPING NE FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014
EXPECT WINDS TODAY MOSTLY UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN
ONTARIO...EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-25KT. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. WHILE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT WINDS
BEHIND TROF...WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
808 AM PST TUE MAR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. THE
NEXT ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...FORCING FROM PASSING JET STREAK WANING RAPIDLY, WITH
RADAR RETURNS DRYING UP AND CLOUDS BREAKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES. UPDATED TO DRASTICALLY REDUCE RAIN/SNOW COVERAGE FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY, AS 12Z NAM/GFS AGREE THAT VERY LITTLE RAIN OR
SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. DRIER MILD PACIFIC AIR
WILL FILTER IN THIS AFTERNOON, UNDER INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING. REDUCED CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON, AND STILL EXPECTING
MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S AREA WIDE. WHATEVER SNOW IS ON THE GROUND IN
THE VALLEYS WON`T BE HERE LONG.
TURNER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 557 AM /
SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL BE HERE
FOR FRIDAY.
UPDATE...SPOTTER REPORTS FROM SPRING CREEK...AS WELL AS WEBCAMS
AT LAMOILLE AND PEQUOP SUMMITS...ARE SHOWING SNOW FALLING IN THESE
LOCATIONS. ROADS ARE SLUSHY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF
INCH OR SO IN SPRING CREEK/LAMOILLE SUMMIT. EMIGRANT AND PEQUOP
SUMMITS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR SO...WITH THE SUMMIT LOCATIONS
RECEIVING 1 TO 3 INCHES. SPRING CREEK AND LAMOILLE SUMMIT SHOULD
SEE ABOUT AN INCH OR SO. ALSO 3KM HRRR IS SHOWING PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEVADA LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED POPS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FOR
OTHER ELEMENTS...GRIDS THIS MORNING WERE REFRESHED TO INCLUDE A LOWER
SNOW LEVEL IN NORTHEAST NEVADA...ALONG WITH UPDATED SNOW AMOUNT
AND RELATED GRIDS. TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 240 AM /
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS STARTING TO
SHIFT EASTWARD PER THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
PRETTY ROBUST WITH READINGS OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES COMMON IN
HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN ELKO COUNTIES. FOR THE MOST PART...SNOW
LEVELS APPEAR TO BE AROUND THE 6500 FOOT RANGE. AS MENTIONED...THE
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLOW MOVING OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA DURING THE MORNING. IT IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE
EXITTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN TO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY...MAKING WAY FOR A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. 700 MB WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO 2 TO
3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. EURO/GFS/DGEX/GEM IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN DIFFERENCES EMERGE ON MONDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AS 700MB TEMPS DROP TO -6 TO -8C ON FRIDAY MORNING ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW...AT THIS POINT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OR HEADLINES AS MOST PRECIP WILL
FALL AHEAD OF COLDER AIR...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
PW`S NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THURSDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED...GUIDANCE AS WELL AS 90 AGL WINDS SHOW 30 TO 40 KNOTS NEAR
COLD FRONT. FRIDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BUT LINGERING
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT INSTABILITY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
700 TEMPS OF -8 ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SATURDAY A STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE NEAR 7000 FEET OR HIGHER.
MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...SO ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND SKY FOR MONDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KWMC...KEKO AND KELY. RAIN SHOULD END BY LATER THIS
MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH A 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS/VIS. ALSO A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OF A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KELY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
312 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THICK CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TODAY WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER IN THE EAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS
IT HAS BEEN. THURSDAY WILL SEE A STRONG WARMING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SLIDES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND. MORE RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING UPPER WAVE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS FAST AND MOISTURE RICH FLOW EJECTS EAST
OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS STARTED TRENDING STRONGER WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON THE QPF SIDE OF THINGS LAST NIGHT AND THAT TREND
CONTINUES. THE LATEST HRRR AND 18Z NAM ARE INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT LOW END PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NM
THIS EVENING. EVEN THE ABQ AND SAF METRO AREA ARE PROGGED TO PICK
UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS. HAVE TRENDED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN FOR THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF CHANCE IN SURROUNDING
LOWER ELEVATIONS. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY AS WELL ABOVE
7500 FEET. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PLUNGING INTO THE NE PLAINS
TONIGHT WILL FOCUS ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIP ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER. WINDS WILL ALSO BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED ADVISORY
CRITERIA IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HIGHLIGHTS DUE TO SHORT DURATION.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER OUT EAST AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
FILTER THROUGH THE AREA. A SUNNIER DAY THAN TODAY IS ON TAP MOST
AREAS HOWEVER STILL SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND
WINDS MIXING OVER THE AREA. THE EAST WILL PUSH LOW TO MID 70S ONCE
AGAIN.
EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A STORM SYSTEM DIVING SE OUT THE PACIFIC NW INTO NM FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAIN THE BIG
QUESTION WITH THIS EVENT. A DEEP COLD POOL OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
MAY ALLOW FOR GAP WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST ON CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO DELIVER THE BEST PRECIP
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE AS FAR WEST AS THE
DIVIDE IS POSSIBLE. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP WITH THIS SYSTEM SO DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD AT WORK.
DAYTIME INSTABILITY BENEATH THE COLD CORE WILL OFFER THE BEST SHOT
OF PRECIP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME STORMS SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED WIND FORECAST. INCREASED SPEEDS TO
MATCH BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON FRIDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE
COMING IN A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF THE FLOW
ALOFT/MIXING ON THAT DAY. ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT/S
COLD FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
PRETTY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND WOULD COINCIDE WITH A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE ALSO
INCREASED WITH THE PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF AND
NAM ARE ALL BULLISH FOR AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM
THIS QUICK HITTING SYSTEM ACROSS THE JEMEZ/LOWER SAN JUAN MTNS.
SUSPECT THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND PORTIONS OF THE SANDIAS
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL GET SOME MEASURABLE AS WELL. UNSURE
HOW MUCH WETTING...GREATER THAN TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT CANT RULE IT
OUT.
AS MENTIONED...PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH RESIDUAL EFFECTS WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST QUARTER. A
SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTHWARD. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE QUITE STRONG ALONG THIS FRONTAL PUSH BUT THE FURTHER WEST YOU
GET...LESS WIND. WEDNESDAY SPEEDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MUCH WEAKER. VENTILATION RATES
WILL LOWER ACROSS MOST WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS. A STRONGER MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL TRIED TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AND COULD
AFFECT FAR WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL AS A RESULT. SHARPLY ACROSS
SOME AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP AREAWIDE AND EXPECTING ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MODERATE WIND FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. BELOW 15 PCT RH
VALUES SHOW UP ACROSS MANY OF THE LOWLAND AREAS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH LOWER RH WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA
ROSA BUT SHOULD BE LOCALIZED IN NATURE. LOOKING FOR A FEW STRONGER
BREEZES ACROSS THE HIGHER CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL.
THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL TAKE AIM ON THE AREA FRIDAY. WINDS
ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND COMBINE WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
BREEZINESS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO ADOPTED THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE NAM SOLUTION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE AN INTERESTING WEATHER
DAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OR HIGHER DEWPOINTS FLOWING IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE BACK DOOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. LOOKING AT MID/UPPER
TEEN RH VALUES ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PLAINS. NOT LOOKING AT ANY CRITICAL CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME EVEN.
MODELS STILL SHOW A STRENGTHENING TROUGH WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR A
WETTING PRECIPITATION EVENT BUT PROBABLY NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT AS THE PREVIOUS WEEKEND ONE. THE COLD FRONTAL PUSH
ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HELP CONCENTRATE SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION
THERE. ALSO EXPECT SOME POCKETS ACROSS THE NORTH AND PERHAPS EVEN
SOUTHWEST AREAS. EITHER WAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER. CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHTNING
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. SNOW LEVELS ALSO APPEAR TO BE LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
PASSAGE AND SNOW MELT WOULD HELP MOISTEN THE FUELS A BIT MORE.
A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS TO PUSH OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. SUSPECT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COME IN A LITTLE HIGHER
AS WE GET NEARER TO THAT PERIOD BECAUSE MIXING WILL BE LOWER AND
THUS KEEP SFC DEWPOINTS FROM GETTING TOO LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE ISNT
THE BEST FOR THE RH FORECAST ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO
LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY
THE PACIFIC LOW CAN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ON THE FORECAST AREA.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO
THIS DISTURBANCE. MODELS HAVE COME IN A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SO HAVE BUILT IN SOME VCSH/S AT
GUP/AEG/ABQ/SAF AND LVS. WAVE WILL INITIALLY AFFECT FMN/GUP FIRST
LATE AFT/EARLY EVE AND THEN TRANSITION OVER CENTRAL SITES
EVENING/EARLY AM AND THEN FINISH ITS SWEEP OF THE AREA BTWN 12Z TO
15Z WED. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE AND WILL BE
TRICKY TO FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL MODIFY TO
INCLUDE TEMPO/PREVAILING OR TAKE OUT PRECIP MENTION AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE PERIOD. MTN TOP OBSCD IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HRS
DURING THE WAVE PASSAGE.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 26 58 27 63 / 30 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 21 54 21 59 / 40 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 23 54 24 60 / 50 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 17 59 19 65 / 20 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 20 54 22 59 / 20 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 21 59 20 66 / 20 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 27 56 28 62 / 10 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 25 68 26 69 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 19 47 17 50 / 50 5 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 31 53 33 59 / 40 5 0 0
PECOS........................... 28 51 29 57 / 40 5 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 19 50 18 59 / 40 5 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 22 41 24 47 / 50 5 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 22 47 21 53 / 40 5 0 0
TAOS............................ 23 54 22 60 / 30 0 0 0
MORA............................ 28 52 28 58 / 30 5 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 26 60 27 65 / 30 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 29 52 30 59 / 50 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 28 57 29 64 / 40 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 38 59 36 66 / 40 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 35 61 34 67 / 30 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 35 63 33 69 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 35 63 33 70 / 30 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 29 64 28 70 / 20 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 34 63 33 69 / 30 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 42 65 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 32 56 34 63 / 60 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 34 56 35 62 / 40 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 26 56 26 63 / 30 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 29 53 30 61 / 40 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 37 56 33 62 / 20 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 35 60 33 63 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 34 54 32 60 / 10 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 28 45 24 65 / 30 20 0 0
RATON........................... 26 53 23 70 / 30 5 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 28 55 24 70 / 20 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 29 55 26 66 / 20 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 30 46 28 72 / 10 10 0 0
ROY............................. 32 50 26 68 / 10 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 36 52 32 72 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 39 54 32 70 / 10 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 36 52 29 74 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 35 51 30 69 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 36 55 30 71 / 10 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 41 55 33 72 / 10 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 37 61 31 72 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 40 57 32 71 / 5 0 0 0
ELK............................. 38 55 32 65 / 5 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
318 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 21Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THIS FLOW...THE MOST NOTABLE
FEATURE IS A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS / WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS SUPPORTED SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES HAVE DROPPED TO 3/4 MILE WITH EVEN ONE 1/4 MILE OBSERVED AT
LINTON NORTH DAKOTA. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SNOW...STUCK
BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SEEN ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING.
THESE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INVERSION TRAPPING LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR HAS ONLY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TEENS
TO LOW 20S. STILL...THIS IS MUCH WARMER THAN IT HAS BEEN AS OF
LATE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS AROUND THE REGION SHOWED AMOUNTS
OF 0.1" OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AROUND 0.25" OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...0.3-0.4" WHERE THE SNOW WAS FALLING AND 0.5" IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS EVENING...CAUSING SNOW
TO SPREAD IN AND DEVELOP. SIMULTANEOUSLY...MODELS SUGGEST THE HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NEBRASKA WILL GET ADVECTED NORTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR MORE QPF PRODUCTION FROM THE FORCING.
ANOTHER FEATURE AIDING IN MORE QPF IS SOME NEGATIVE EPV PROGGED ON
TOP OF THE F-GEN CIRCULATION...LEADING TO BANDING.
LOCATION...THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED THROUGH THE EVENING. HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED THE BULK OF
THE SNOW TRAVERSING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF
I-94. ON THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE 04.12Z GFS WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF THE
SNOW SOUTHWEST OF LA CROSSE. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW WHICH IS
GENERALLY THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CONCURS WITH EXTRAPOLATION OF
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS.
TIMING...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA BETWEEN 22-03Z WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...THEN EXIT NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 08-12Z WEDNESDAY.
AMOUNTS...04.12Z NAM/GFS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR UPWARD TREND IN QPF
AND THIS FORECAST HAS DONE THE SAME. DID NOT GO FULLY TOWARDS THEIR
AMOUNTS SEEING LIGHTER QPF FROM THE RAP...BUT AN UPWARD TREND IS
NEEDED. SREF QPF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A 0.25 INCH IS LIKELY...BUT
THERE ARE EVEN A FEW MEMBERS SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF A 0.5 INCH.
SHOULD THESE PAN OUT WE WOULD END UP WITH WARNING CRITERIA. RIGHT
NOW...WITH COBB DATA SUGGESTING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS BETWEEN 13-16
TO 1...THINKING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 3-5 INCHES SOUTH AND WEST
OF LA CROSSE. A FEW 6 INCH AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
NEGATIVE EPV. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASE QUICKLY HEADING TO THE NORTHEAST
FROM WINONA TO LA CROSSE NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER
AIR BEING SUCKED INTO THE F-GEN CIRCULATION. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST
UNCERTAIN ALONG AN AXIS FROM WINONA TO LA CROSSE WHERE ANYWHERE FROM
1 TO 5 INCHES SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.
AFTER THE SNOW EXITS...MUCH OF WEDNESDAY LOOKS QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER
WHICH WITH SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SOME WEAK OMEGA RESULTING FROM
DIURNAL HEATING...HAVE ADDED SOME FLURRIES. BULK OF THE FLURRY
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
04.12Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET ALL DEPICT A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH
SUGGESTS A CONTINUED MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT DROP THROUGH ONTARIO
AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS US BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO
PUT SOME SPEED BUMPS IN THE MODERATION.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS ONTARIO ON FRIDAY HELPS
PROPEL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY BLOWING OF THE FRESH SNOW WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE TO NEAR 30 ON THURSDAY. INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
SHOULD LIMIT SOME TEMPERATURE FALL THURSDAY EVENING...WITH RISING
TEMPS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FOLLOWING A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE...READINGS SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE
TEMPERATURE ISSUES...FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE PRECIPITATION. MUCH OF THE DEEPER SYNOPTIC FORCING
IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...BUT GIVEN THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND
LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO BE AROUND...A NEED EXISTS FOR SOME 20-30
PERCENT CHANCES. GIVEN A WARM LAYER PRESENT ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHAT
PRECIP DOES OCCUR COULD EITHER BE LIQUID...SLEET OR SNOW WITH THE
SNOW PROBABILITY HIGHEST TOWARDS TAYLOR COUNTY WITH DEEPER COLD AIR.
SINCE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIGHT...KEPT THE LIQUID FORM AS
FREEZING DRIZZLE / DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THERE
TOO COULD BE ISSUES WITH LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...FAVORING A
DRIZZLE ROUTE.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE A BIT TRICKY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
THE 04.12Z GFS PERSISTS ON DROPPING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT...SENDING A SURGE OF COOLER AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH TAKES UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT TO GET OUT OF HERE. THE
ECMWF...GEM AND UKMET ON THE OTHER HAND CONTINUE TO SAY THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STAYS MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND TRACKS QUICKER TO THE
EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH WARMER SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN EACH
MODEL GROUP HAS STUCK TO THEIR GUNS...HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW A
MODEL CONSENSUS AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
GROUP FLINCHES...THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE RAPIDLY TRENDED COLDER
OR WARMER.
MONDAY REMAINS MOST CONFIDENT TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 6-8C PER ECMWF. PRESENTLY
HAVE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT THESE MAY NEED
TO BE INCREASED MORE...DEPENDING ON HOW SUNDAY PLAYS OUT.
A COOL DOWN THEN ENSUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. INCLUDED SOME 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCES FOR THIS TROUGH. LIMITED MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN
THE LOW CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
WITH INCOMING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW...LOOKING
AT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS INTO IFR/LIFR CATEGORY AT KRST BY
03Z...LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. SNOW LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN THE
08-11Z TIME FRAME WITH A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY 11Z. 3 TO 3.5
INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AT KRST. FOR KLSE...WILL SEE
CONDITIONS SLIP INTO MVFR AROUND 01Z WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS IN
THE 04-07Z TIME FRAME. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 09Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 12Z. 2.5 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL
SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ041-053>055-061.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ086>088-
094>096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHTS SNOWS EXITING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LAST LITTLE AREA OF FLURRIES IS MOVING INTO
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN OFF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT
CLOUDS STRETCH BACK ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN WISCONSIN TEMPORARILY CLEARED OUT
THIS MORNING THOUGH ARE STARTING TO CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH STRATUS
PUSHING IN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MID CLOUDS FLOWING IN AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM...WITH FORCING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND MID-LEVEL FGEN...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SNOW OVER SE NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SNOW IS FOLLOWING THE
MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE WHETHER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SNOW PASSES OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND THE TEMPERATURES NEXT.
TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE THERMAL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POSITIONED FROM FAR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE BULLISH
IN PRODUCING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WITHIN THE BAND OF SNOW...BUT
GENERALLY JUST BRUSH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
DIGGING SOUTH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL CAUSE A HUDSON BAY HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTH...AND ADVECT VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR...HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY WITH LAKE
ICE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN. THIS DRY AIR ALSO SUPPORTS KEEPING THE
BAND OF SNOW SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO WILL JUST KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER WOOD AND WAUSHARA COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES TO OCCUR LATE IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT FROM NE TO SW WITH THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR. WITH
WINDS EXPECTING TO DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
OVER N-C AND FAR NE WISCONSIN. STILL THINK TEMPS IN E-C WISCONSIN
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME TANKING DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE NE WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...THE DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL TEMPS COOL OFF A COUPLE DEGREES COMPARED TO
TODAY...SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS WITH A FEW
LOW 20S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
THE AREA WILL FINALLY COME OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE WITH TEMPS
APPROACHING NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...AND LIKELY AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY...THEN A RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
EXPECTED (BUT NOT AS COLD AS START OF MARCH). THERE WILL BE A FEW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SHOTS OF WAA...FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES...A MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE IDENTIFYING THE
"WARMEST" DAYS AND BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR A DRY BUT COLD NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. COMBINATION OF
DRY AIR...VEERING WINDS...SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...AND ICE
COVER ON LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL...SO
ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES...BUT PREFER TO
KEEP ANY FLURRY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN
DEVELOP WILL END AS WINDS TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WAA BEGINS TO RAMP UP ON THURSDAY...MAINLY ALOFT...AS 850MB TEMPS
ATTEMPT TO FINALLY REACH THE 0C MARK. INCREASING MOISTURE IS ALSO
EXPECTED...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY NOW LOOKS DRY FOR THE AREA...AS MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL ALSO BACK OFF ON
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI...BUT KEEP
LIKELY POPS GOING OVER THE NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACH.
BEST MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING STAY ACROSS THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP FOR
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS
ACROSS THE AREA...FEEL AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO
COVER ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. IF PRECIP
DOES OCCUR...PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS ABOVE 0C AIR
BRIEFLY PUSHES OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLEET AND SNOW AS THE MAIN PRECIP TYPES TO COVER THE MIXED
PRECIP CHANCE. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS. PREFER TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THIS POINT AND ALLOW THE MODELS TO
SHOW A STRONGER SIGNAL. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WITH LOWER TOTALS AS YOU MOVE
SOUTH. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN LOOK FOR CAA TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS DO SHOW A
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT ALL BUT THE GFS KEEP THE AREA DRY AND WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE DRY SOLUTION AND NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP CHANCES. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...THEN MODELS VARY GREATLY
FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF/GEM WOULD FAVOR HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR
40...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS TEMPS IN THE TEENS. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK
TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME RAIN MIX IN WITH THE SNOW...BUT
THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS TO CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THEREAFTER...EXPECT CLOUDY BUT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHILE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
DUE TO THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BYPASS THE
REGION TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM NE TO SW
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WILL EXIST
TONIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THINKING THE VERY DRY AIR AND ICE OVER THE LAKE MAKES THE CHANCE
VERY SMALL. IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ONCE
THE LIGHT SNOW EXITS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1255 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
SNOW TAPERED OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING 5000 FT CLOUDS
ALLOWING FOR A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DUE TO SOME LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S SEEM ON TRACK.
THE 06Z AND 12Z NAM AND GFS MODELS AND NOW THE 12Z CANADIAN AND
ECMWF MODELS CAME IN WITH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN WI FOR
TONIGHT/S CLIPPER SYSTEM. TOOK A BLEND OF THESE VALUES FOR
PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS. EXPECTING THIS EVENT TO HAVE A BANDED
STRUCTURE THAT COULD PUT DOWN 3-5 INCHES OVER A SMALL AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE HIGHEST OMEGA WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI EARLY IN
THE EVENT AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH LATER IN THE EVENT.
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE THAT BAND WOULD SET
UP...BUT I FACTORED IN A TIGHTER QPF GRADIENT SOUTHWEST OF MADISON
AS A FIRST GUESS. THEREFORE...ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
IOWA...LAFAYETTE AND GREEN COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND LEFT OUT DANE
AND ROCK COUNTIES FOR NOW.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WED MORNING FROM 5 AM THROUGH
9 AM. EXPECTING SNOW TO STILL BE FALLING IN THE MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR...SO EXPECT A ROUGH COMMUTE.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CIGS UNTIL LATE EVENING AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MID EVENING AND THEN BECOME
NORTHEAST TO EAST DURING SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE THE SNOW ENDS BY LATE MORNING.
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WITH 1/2 TO 1 MILE VSBU AND
IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR MSN AND AROUND MILWAUKEE
NEAR 3 AM. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WED MORNING FROM 5
AM THROUGH 9 AM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH WAA AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE THAT TRACKS EAST
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER SRN WI IN RRQ OF UPPER JET MAX THAT
SHIFTS EAST OF AREA BY 12Z. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR LOCATIONS
FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH BY 8 AM...BUT VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL
LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
FORCING AS SECOND WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...BUT WARM ADVECTION RAISES 925MB TEMPS
ENOUGH TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH AROUND 20 IN THE NORTHEAST.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
NEXT ROUND OF SNOW EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE
IN ULD WITH LFQ OF NEXT JETLET THAT CROSSES REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z WED. BEST LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND COLUMN SATURATION OVER
THE SW 2/3 OF CWA...SO WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THERE TAPERING
OFF RAPIDLY TO CHANCE POPS IN THE NE THIRD. 06Z NAM SIMILAR TO 00Z
RUN IN MAINTAINING AN 8 TO 10 MICROBAR/SEC OMEGA MAX IN THE DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE OVER THE SW CWA...BUT HAS BOOSTED QPF UP TO 0.20 INCH.
MODEST LAPSE RATES AROUND 600 MB STEEPEN ABOVE 500 MB...BUT
INGREDIENTS PLOTS INDICATE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWS WILL
BE SOUTHWEST OF CWA. UPPED QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHWEST TO
AROUND 3 INCHES...WITH LATER SHIFTS NEEDING TO ASSES THE NEED FOR AN
ADVISORY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW HANG ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXITS THE AREA. SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY MOST PLACES AS SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. DID KEEP SOME SMALL POPS NEAR THE LAKE
THOUGH...AS SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BRING A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. GIVEN MUCH OF THE LAKE IS COVERED IN ICE THOUGH...AND
SFC TO 850 MB DELTA T VALUES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES AT
BEST...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW IN ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THURSDAY
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S...THOUGH STILL QUITE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MOST OF THE MODELS HOLD OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING TEMPS AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT...LOOKS LIKE A MIX OF PRECIP POSSIBLE FOR THIS
SHORTWAVE. CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW OR SLEET THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW/SLEET/RAIN ALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE 30S. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE
EVENT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING SOME DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE. THE BIGGEST
ISSUE FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER HIGH THAN THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN...ALLOWING FOR A SLOWER RETURN OF MILDER TEMPS. GENERALLY
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...AS THE GFS SUGGESTS TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO THE LOW 20S...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
PUSHING 40.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LITTLE PRECIP MONDAY...SO WENT WITH SOME
LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW. GFS FINALLY HAS THE MILDER AIR INTO
WISCONSIN BY MONDAY...SO BETTER CONFIDENCE IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS... THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL EXIT EASTERN WI BY 11Z. THE BACK EDGE OF THE BROADER
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IS AT
THE MS RIVER AT 10Z AND WILL BE REACHING KMSN BY 12Z...KUES
AROUND 1330Z...KENW BY 14Z AND KMKE BETWEEN 14Z AND 1430Z. CIGS
WILL RAPIDLY RAISE TO BETWEEN 4K FT AND 6K FT BEHIND THE SNOW.
WATCHING LIGHT SNOW OVER SE MN INTO W CENTRAL WI WITH A SECOND
WAVE THAT HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS HAD BEEN KEEPING NORTH OF TAF
SITES. 09Z RAP NOW BRINGING A SMALL POCKET OF SNOW TO KMSN BY 15Z
AND THROUGH KUES AND KMKE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND ADJUST AS NEED AT ISSUANCE.
NEXT ROUND OF SNOW COMES THIS EVENING WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. 00Z
MODELS INDICATING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS...WITH 1
TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN TAF SITES AND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
FOR KMSN TONIGHT. 06Z NAM TRYING TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW
OVER THE SW CWA THAT COULD EDGE TOWARDS KMSN BUT WILL AWAIT LATER
RUNS BEFORE RAISING AMOUNTS/LOWERING CONDITIONS
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ062-067-068.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV