Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/03/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1008 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WELL DEFINED PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
PHOENIX AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
WITH NEARLY EVERYONE DRYING OUT COMPLETELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING AT THIS POINT...AS WE REMAIN
UNDER THE WETTER INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING. MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR
SO...AN AVERAGE OF 0.25IN TO 0.75IN FOR MANY LOWER DESERT ELEVATION
SITES ACROSS OUR CWA...AND JUST OVER 1.0IN FOR OUR HIGHER MOUNTAIN
SITES IN JTNP IN CALIFORNIA...AND ALSO GLOBE IN ARIZONA.
THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT MORE SO OVER OUR ARIZONA
ZONES/LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AS A
PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS IN EXCESS OF 1.0IN REMAINS POSITIONED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ALONG WITH 850-700MB WINDS AROUND 60-65KTS.
MANY LOCATION ACROSS MARICOPA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE GREAT PHOENIX
METROPOLITAN HAVE EXCELLENT CHANCES TO PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER
TO ONE HALF INCH MORE RAIN BEFORE THE DAY IS THROUGH....AND HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS TO THE EAST NEAR GLOBE AND ROOSEVELT...MAYBE UP TO ONE
MORE INCH.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW STORMS FORMING OVER PORTIONS
OF MARICOPA COUNTY AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...SOME OF THE MORE
INTENSE CELLS HAVE PRODUCED CLOSE TO 0.30IN IN A 15 MINUTE PERIOD
BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS RATE IS NOT A BIG
CONCERN UNLESS THE STORMS SLOW DOWN AND/OR BEGIN TRAINING OVER THE
SAME AREA...SO WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY LOCALIZED PONDING OR
FLOODING OF ROADWAYS.
THE HI-RES WRFS/NAM 4KM NEST CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON HOW
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS WILL EVOLVE IN THE SHORT TERM. ANTICIPATING
THAT ONCE THE 500MB COLD CORE MOVES OVERHEAD BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...
STORMS WILL BLOSSOM AGAIN ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DRAMATICALLY. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL LOSE
THEIR DEEPEST MOISTURE LATER THIS MORNING...SO POPS ACROSS THAT AREA
WILL BE LESS THAN THAT OVER THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA AND POINT EAST.
THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN DRYING OUT AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE LOWER DESERTS...SUNDAY MAY END UP TURNING OUT TO BE
A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS HANG ON THE
LONGEST...BUT EVEN THEY MAY END UP CLEARING OUT SOONER THAN LATER.
POPS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD ACROSS THE BOARD SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT...ZONAL FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
WEAK MID-WEEK RIDGING. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RESPOND BACK
TO NORMAL BY MID WEEK AND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS LATE
IN THE WEEK /FRIDAY OR SATURDAY/ BUT PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL
GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF THE TROUGH. COULD BRING SOME BREEZINESS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT THAT LOOKS TO BE ABOUT IT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
FRONTAL ZONE HAS CAUSED CIGS TO LOWER TO 4-6 KFT MSL IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS...BRIEFLY LOWER IN SOME SPOTS. HOWEVER...CLOUD BASES
ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE BETWEEN SHOWERS...ABOVE 6 KFT MSL OVER SOUTHEAST
METRO PHOENIX AS OF 13Z. FLUCTUATING CIGS WITH PASSING SHOWERS IS
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z BEFORE SHOWERS TEMPORARILY
DECREASE. ANTICIPATE RENEWED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LOW GETS CLOSER. ISOLATED T-STORMS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
AT ANY GIVEN SPOT TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TRAILING OFF OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
STRONGER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE 25+ KTS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS TO THE
WEST. HRRR MODEL INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AFTER 14Z
INCREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AFTER 20Z AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE TAFS. ISOLATED T-STORMS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT ANY
GIVEN SPOT TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TRAILING OFF OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS. STRONGER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE 25+ KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH LESS WIND. HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE
THOUGH OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL REMAIN GOOD. MODELS INDICATE HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. NORTHERLY BREEZINESS IS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...BUT NO STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY. STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 30-50 DBZ
ECHOES GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A KITT PEAK-TUCSON-SAN CARLOS
RESERVOIR LINE AT 1620Z. MUCH OF THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF
PRECIP ECHOES AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO
OCCURRED DURING ABOUT THE PAST 30 MINS. AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP HAS
GREATLY INCREASED DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z
RANGED FROM THE MID 20S NEAR KDUG TO AROUND 50 F ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY. 01/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS NEAR 0.90
INCH...AN INCREASE OF NEARLY 0.30 INCH DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.
01/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED 538 DM LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. A VERY TIGHT MID-LEVEL
GRADIENT WAS ACROSS SE AZ...WITH 700 MB 50 KT OBSERVED WIND SPEED AT
KTWC.
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS PER THE 01/14Z RUC HRRR. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP IS PROGGED TO EXPAND FROM GENERALLY FROM THE TUCSON METRO
EWD/SWD...QUITE SIMILAR TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTION OF
PRECIP. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR GIVEN THE MODEST CAPE
ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS AS PER RAWS OBSERVATIONS AND DUAL POL
RADAR YIELDED ABOUT 8500-9000 FEET. THESE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
VERY GRADUALLY FALL TO NEAR 7500-8000 FEET FROM THE CATALINA
MOUNTAINS NEWD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
ONGOING PRECIP...BELIEVE HIGH TEMPS FROM TUCSON WWD ARE REASONABLE.
THE UPSHOT...THERE ARE NO CHANGES FORTHCOMING TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR
FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE
AS DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUED TO ADVECT INTO ARIZONA AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
RECENT MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA.
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TODAY TO 10 AM MST SUNDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES...AND THE
GALIURO/PINALENO MOUNTAINS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TODAY TO 10 AM MST SUNDAY ABOVE 7000
FEET FOR THE CATALINA/RINCON MOUNTAINS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN THESE ZONES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 7 INCHES IN THE
SOUTHERN MOST MOUNTAINS TO 22 INCHES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 8000-8500 FEET BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN LOWER
TO AROUND 6500 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE
PRECIPITATION...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM
TODAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. THAT SAID...A WIND ADVISORY ALSO IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM MST TODAY FOR SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY WHERE
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL END BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER VERSUS
TEMPERATURES OBSERVED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ANOTHER 2-6 DEGREES
OF COOLING SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY
NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP. ISOLATED -TSRA WILL ALSO
OCCUR TODAY. SURFACE WIND THRU THIS EVENING GENERALLY SWLY/WLY AT
12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS. HOWEVER...EVEN STRONGER WIND
SPEEDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE KDUG TERMINAL MAY EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35
KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
MOSTLY LESS THAN 12 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY...THEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG AND
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO THE AMPLE
MOISTURE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR AZZ510-511 ABOVE 7000 FEET.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR AZZ514 ABOVE 7000 FEET.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ507-508-
512-513.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
615 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A WELL DEFINED PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY...EVENTUALLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE PHOENIX AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING WITH NEARLY EVERYONE DRYING OUT COMPLETELY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THE LOW...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THOSE OF US IN THE PHOENIX AREA...THIS UPPER LOW HAS BEEN AN
ABYSMAL UNDER-PERFORMER THUS FAR. UNLESS YOU WERE ONE OF THE LUCKY
ONES CAUGHT UNDER A BRIEF SHOWER IN CAVE CREEK/CAREFREE FRIDAY
EVENING...YOU HAVENT SEEN A DROP THUS FAR. WHILE SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA HAS FARED SOMEWHAT BETTER...RAINFALL
STILL HASNT FILLED IN TO THE EXTENT THAT IT SHOULD HAVE.
THAT BEING SAID...ALL HOPE IS NOT LOST...NOT BY A LONG-SHOT. THE 1+
INCH PWAT AXIS IS NOW SQUARELY POSITIONED OVERHEAD ALONG WITH
850-700MB WINDS AROUND 60-65KTS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THOSE LOCATIONS
DIRECTLY WITHIN THE UPSLOPE FLOW /FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX/ ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH THE REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC FILLING IN QUITE A BIT SINCE MIDNIGHT. THERES EVEN A
HINT AT NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR NORTH PART OF THE METRO
/CEILINGS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY LOWERING SINCE MIDNIGHT/ AND KYUX IS
SHOWING SOME NEW ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR EASTERN YUMA/LA PAZ COUNTIES.
WITH A SOLID 10-12HRS WORTH OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPSLOPE WINDS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z
COINCIDENT WITH AT LEAST 1.1 INCH PWATS...EVEN THE DRIEST MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND FILL IN BY LATE
MORNING...ALBEIT AT A GLACIAL PACE. ONCE THE COLD CORE ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO
BLOSSOM ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
DRAMATICALLY. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ISNT QUITE THROUGH WITH THE
PRECIP BUT AS THEY WILL LOSE THEIR DEEPEST MOISTURE LATER THIS
MORNING...THEIR POPS WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN THOSE AROUND THE
PHOENIX AREA.
THUS...IM MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/QPF FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. POPS/QPF WILL BE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS THE BOARD
THROUGH LATE MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT WHAT HAS HAPPENED THUS FAR
AND WHAT LITTLE IS DEVELOPING ON RADAR TO OUR SOUTH...BUT WILL BE
RETAINED AROUND 100 PERCENT FOR LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. GIVEN THEIR
PERFORMANCE THUS FAR...THE HI-RES WRFS AND NAM 4KM NEST APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. HRRR AND RAP ARE SLOWLY
CATCHING ONTO REALITY BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH TO BE USED FOR THIS
MORNINGS FORECAST UNFORTUNATELY. COMPLETELY AVOIDING THE GFS EC AND
GEM GIVEN THEIR LACKLUSTER PERFORMANCE THUS FAR.
THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN DRYING OUT AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE LOWER DESERTS...SUNDAY MAY END UP TURNING OUT TO BE
A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS HANG ON THE
LONGEST...BUT EVEN THEY MAY END UP CLEARING OUT SOONER THAN LATER.
POPS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD ACROSS THE BOARD SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT...ZONAL FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
WEAK MID-WEEK RIDGING. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RESPOND BACK
TO NORMAL BY MID WEEK AND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS LATE
IN THE WEEK /FRIDAY OR SATURDAY/ BUT PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL
GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF THE TROUGH. COULD BRING SOME BREEZINESS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT THAT LOOKS TO BE ABOUT IT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
FRONTAL ZONE HAS CAUSED CIGS TO LOWER TO 4-6 KFT MSL IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS...BRIEFLY LOWER IN SOME SPOTS. HOWEVER...CLOUD BASES
ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE BETWEEN SHOWERS...ABOVE 6 KFT MSL OVER SOUTHEAST
METRO PHOENIX AS OF 13Z. FLUCTUATING CIGS WITH PASSING SHOWERS IS
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z BEFORE SHOWERS TEMPORARILY
DECREASE. ANTICIPATE RENEWED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LOW GETS CLOSER. ISOLATED T-STORMS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
AT ANY GIVEN SPOT TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TRAILING OFF OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
STRONGER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE 25+ KTS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS TO THE
WEST. HRRR MODEL INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AFTER 14Z
INCREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AFTER 20Z AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE TAFS. ISOLATED T-STORMS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT ANY
GIVEN SPOT TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TRAILING OFF OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS. STRONGER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE 25+ KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH LESS WIND. HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE
THOUGH OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL REMAIN GOOD. MODELS INDICATE HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. NORTHERLY BREEZINESS IS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...BUT NO STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
235 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
.UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A WELL DEFINED PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY...EVENTUALLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE PHOENIX AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING WITH NEARLY EVERYONE DRYING OUT COMPLETELY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THE LOW...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THOSE OF US IN THE PHOENIX AREA...THIS UPPER LOW HAS BEEN AN
ABYSMAL UNDER-PERFORMER THUS FAR. UNLESS YOU WERE ONE OF THE LUCKY
ONES CAUGHT UNDER A BRIEF SHOWER IN CAVE CREEK/CAREFREE FRIDAY
EVENING...YOU HAVENT SEEN A DROP THUS FAR. WHILE SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA HAS FARED SOMEWHAT BETTER...RAINFALL
STILL HASNT FILLED IN TO THE EXTENT THAT IT SHOULD HAVE.
THAT BEING SAID...ALL HOPE IS NOT LOST...NOT BY A LONG-SHOT. THE 1+
INCH PWAT AXIS IS NOW SQUARELY POSITIONED OVERHEAD ALONG WITH
850-700MB WINDS AROUND 60-65KTS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THOSE LOCATIONS
DIRECTLY WITHIN THE UPSLOPE FLOW /FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX/ ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH THE REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC FILLING IN QUITE A BIT SINCE MIDNIGHT. THERES EVEN A
HINT AT NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR NORTH PART OF THE METRO
/CEILINGS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY LOWERING SINCE MIDNIGHT/ AND KYUX IS
SHOWING SOME NEW ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR EASTERN YUMA/LA PAZ COUNTIES.
WITH A SOLID 10-12HRS WORTH OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPSLOPE WINDS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z
COINCIDENT WITH AT LEAST 1.1 INCH PWATS...EVEN THE DRIEST MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND FILL IN BY LATE
MORNING...ALBEIT AT A GLACIAL PACE. ONCE THE COLD CORE ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO
BLOSSOM ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
DRAMATICALLY. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ISNT QUITE THROUGH WITH THE
PRECIP BUT AS THEY WILL LOSE THEIR DEEPEST MOISTURE LATER THIS
MORNING...THEIR POPS WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN THOSE AROUND THE
PHOENIX AREA.
THUS...IM MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/QPF FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. POPS/QPF WILL BE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS THE BOARD
THROUGH LATE MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT WHAT HAS HAPPENED THUS FAR
AND WHAT LITTLE IS DEVELOPING ON RADAR TO OUR SOUTH...BUT WILL BE
RETAINED AROUND 100 PERCENT FOR LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. GIVEN THEIR
PERFORMANCE THUS FAR...THE HI-RES WRFS AND NAM 4KM NEST APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. HRRR AND RAP ARE SLOWLY
CATCHING ONTO REALITY BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH TO BE USED FOR THIS
MORNINGS FORECAST UNFORTUNATELY. COMPLETELY AVOIDING THE GFS EC AND
GEM GIVEN THEIR LACKLUSTER PERFORMANCE THUS FAR.
THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN DRYING OUT AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE LOWER DESERTS...SUNDAY MAY END UP TURNING OUT TO BE
A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS HANG ON THE
LONGEST...BUT EVEN THEY MAY END UP CLEARING OUT SOONER THAN LATER.
POPS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD ACROSS THE BOARD SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT...ZONAL FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
WEAK MID-WEEK RIDGING. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RESPOND BACK
TO NORMAL BY MID WEEK AND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS LATE
IN THE WEEK /FRIDAY OR SATURDAY/ BUT PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL
GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF THE TROUGH. COULD BRING SOME BREEZINESS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT THAT LOOKS TO BE ABOUT IT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA...ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKENING FRONT...HAS CAUSED CIGS TO LOWER TO 4-6 KFT MSL AS OF
09Z...INCLUDING METRO PHOENIX AREA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR REST
OF THE DAY TODAY THOUGH SOME OCCASIONALLY HIGHER CIGS ARE QUITE
LIKELY. SHOWERS HOWEVER HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN HANDLING THINGS WELL THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND LATEST RUN DEPICTS ONLY SOME SPOTTY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS UNTIL AT LEAST 16Z WHEN SHOWERS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. LATEST TAF AMENDMENTS
REFLECT THAT THINKING. SOME LOCAL GUSTINESS OF 25-30 KTS IS POSSIBLE
EVEN WITH GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS. COULD SEE SOME STRAY T-STORMS
MIDDAY ONWARD WHICH WOULD CREATE LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN/SMALL
HAIL...STRONG GUSTS...LOWERED VIS...AND EVEN LOWER CIGS BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR ANY ONE TAF SITE AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WINDS FROM 200-230 DEGREES TO PREVAIL WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS TAPERED OFF AS SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT
OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. HRRR MODEL HAS CAPTURED TRENDS WELL OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IT DEPICTS ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS
BEFORE 18Z FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THERE WILL
BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE ELEVATED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A WARMING TREND
ALONG WITH LESS WIND. HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE THOUGH OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL REMAIN GOOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
123 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WELL DEFINED PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY...EVENTUALLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE PHOENIX AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING WITH NEARLY EVERYONE DRYING OUT COMPLETELY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THE LOW...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THOSE OF US IN THE PHOENIX AREA...THIS UPPER LOW HAS BEEN AN
ABYSMAL UNDER-PERFORMER THUS FAR. UNLESS YOU WERE ONE OF THE LUCKY
ONES CAUGHT UNDER A BRIEF SHOWER IN CAVE CREEK/CAREFREE FRIDAY
EVENING...YOU HAVENT SEEN A DROP THUS FAR. WHILE SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA HAS FARED SOMEWHAT BETTER...RAINFALL
STILL HASNT FILLED IN TO THE EXTENT THAT IT SHOULD HAVE.
THAT BEING SAID...ALL HOPE IS NOT LOST...NOT BY A LONG-SHOT. THE 1+
INCH PWAT AXIS IS NOW SQUARELY POSITIONED OVERHEAD ALONG WITH
850-700MB WINDS AROUND 60-65KTS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THOSE LOCATIONS
DIRECTLY WITHIN THE UPSLOPE FLOW /FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX/ ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH THE REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC FILLING IN QUITE A BIT SINCE MIDNIGHT. THERES EVEN A
HINT AT NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR NORTH PART OF THE METRO
/CEILINGS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY LOWERING SINCE MIDNIGHT/ AND KYUX IS
SHOWING SOME NEW ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR EASTERN YUMA/LA PAZ COUNTIES.
WITH A SOLID 10-12HRS WORTH OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPSLOPE WINDS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z
COINCIDENT WITH AT LEAST 1.1 INCH PWATS...EVEN THE DRIEST MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND FILL IN BY LATE
MORNING...ALBEIT AT A GLACIAL PACE. ONCE THE COLD CORE ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO
BLOSSOM ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
DRAMATICALLY. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ISNT QUITE THROUGH WITH THE
PRECIP BUT AS THEY WILL LOSE THEIR DEEPEST MOISTURE LATER THIS
MORNING...THEIR POPS WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN THOSE AROUND THE
PHOENIX AREA.
THUS...IM MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/QPF FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. POPS/QPF WILL BE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS THE BOARD
THROUGH LATE MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT WHAT HAS HAPPENED THUS FAR
AND WHAT LITTLE IS DEVELOPING ON RADAR TO OUR SOUTH...BUT WILL BE
RETAINED AROUND 100 PERCENT FOR LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. GIVEN THEIR
PERFORMANCE THUS FAR...THE HI-RES WRFS AND NAM 4KM NEST APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. HRRR AND RAP ARE SLOWLY
CATCHING ONTO REALITY BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH TO BE USED FOR THIS
MORNINGS FORECAST UNFORTUNATELY. COMPLETELY AVOIDING THE GFS EC AND
GEM GIVEN THEIR LACKLUSTER PERFORMANCE THUS FAR.
THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN DRYING OUT AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE LOWER DESERTS...SUNDAY MAY END UP TURNING OUT TO BE
A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS HANG ON THE
LONGEST...BUT EVEN THEY MAY END UP CLEARING OUT SOONER THAN LATER.
POPS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD ACROSS THE BOARD SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT...ZONAL FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
WEAK MID-WEEK RIDGING. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RESPOND BACK
TO NORMAL BY MID WEEK AND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS LATE
IN THE WEEK /FRIDAY OR SATURDAY/ BUT PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL
GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF THE TROUGH. COULD BRING SOME BREEZINESS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT THAT LOOKS TO BE ABOUT IT.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHERLY CROSS WINDS AT KPHX AND KIWA...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING AOA
20KT WILL BE ONE AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT WITH THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NOT ALLOWING WINDS TO RELINQUISH THEIR
GUSTY CHARACTER. INITIAL BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST
OF CNTRL ARIZONA TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AFTER 06Z. WHILE CHANCES FOR TS OVERNIGHT
EXIST...PROBABILITIES ARE VERY LOW. THERE IS SOME MODEL INDICATIONS
OF PERSISTENT CIGS FALLING INTO A 4K-5K FT LEVEL SAT MORNING AS SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY AFTER SUNRISE. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR MDT/HVY SHOWERS WILL EXIST SAT AFTERNOON...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD
RISE AOA 6K FT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AFTER 03Z-06Z. WIND GUSTS TO AOA 25 KT WILL BE
PREVALENT...THOUGH GUSTS APPROACHING 40KT WITH SHIFTING DIRECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHOWERS. EMBEDDED ISOLD TS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON...THOUGH CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN AOA 6K FT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THERE WILL
BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE ELEVATED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A WARMING TREND
ALONG WITH LESS WIND. HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE THOUGH OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL REMAIN GOOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
850 PM PST FRI FEB 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ONGOING FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR SNOWFALL AND TRENDS IN
THE SIERRA, WHERE SNOW IS GRADUALLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS. WILL
ALLOW WARNING AND ADVISORY FOR MONO CO AND TAHOE RESPECTIVELY, TO
EXPIRE AT 10 PM. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH
OR TWO MAINLY ALONG THE CREST. IN FACT, SNOW HAS REALLY STRUGGLED
TO SPILL OVER INTO TRUCKEE/TAHOE LAST FEW HOURS.
NOW, FURTHER NORTH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN/SNOW NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH
FROM NOW UNTIL ABOUT 12Z/SAT. THE HRRR REALLY PICKS UP ON THIS AS
DOES THE NAM, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS. RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A BAND IN THIS AREA, MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO BELOW 5000 FEET. THIS
PATTERN SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
FOR CEDARVILLE AND ADJACENT AREAS - SO WILL BE ISSUING AN
OVERNIGHT ADVISORY FOR THOSE ZONES.
REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.
CS
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM PST FRI FEB 28 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF HEAVY SIERRA
SNOWFALL THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY IN MONO COUNTY. A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR WESTERN NEVADA. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL WEAKER STORMS
MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK. EACH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW IN THE SIERRA WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR WESTERN NEVADA.
SHORT TERM...
AN OCCLUDED LOW OFF THE COAST CONTINUES TO STREAM MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SIERRA. THIS PROVIDED PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SIERRA PARTICULARLY IN MONO COUNTY. A
TEMPORARY LULL IN SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER PUSH OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 40S BUT
COULD SEE SNOW LEVELS EASILY FALL BACK TO LAKE LEVEL DUE TO THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE INCOMING BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. COULD SEE
AN ADDITIONAL 3-6" OF SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE SIERRA ABOVE
7000 FEET WITH 6-9" IN MONO COUNTY. UP TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS BELOW 7000 FEET. AREAS WITHIN
CONVECTIVE BANDS COULD SEE RATES OF 3-4"/HR BUT PREDICTABILITY OF
WHERE THEY DEVELOP IS LOW. AS SUCH, WILL ALLOW WINTER WARNING AND
ADVISORIES TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL ONLY
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH SNOW LEVELS
GENERALLY AROUND 5500-6000 FEET THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BANDED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
WASHOE AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES.
ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW DROPS TO OUR SOUTH LEAVING US WITH MAINLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ONLY ABOUT AN
INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST AND
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. ON
SUNDAY, FLOW TURNS ZONAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS REMAINING
WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH
WESTERN PORTIONS OF LASSEN COUNTY. FUENTES
WARM BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. MODELS ARE VARYING ON THE TRACK OF WAVES
MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST, BUT AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW REMAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE WARM NATURE OF THE
FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS AT 6500-7500 FEET, WITH ONLY LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST. BRONG
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WERE CUT BACK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80, OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PROJECTED BY MOST MODELS
TO BUILD OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THEREFORE, I TRENDED
THE SHOWER COVERAGE FOR THOSE DAYS DOWN SLIGHTLY AND THEY COULD BE
CUT BACK FURTHER IF THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HOLD TRUE TO THE RIDGE
CONCEPT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AT AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. PRECIPITATION-WISE, THE BEST UPPER
FORCING IN THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION.
WITH THE UPPER FORCING REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH, A MODERATE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FEED MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD WEAKEN AND
BECOME DISJOINTED WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
SIERRA/WESTERN NEVADA. STILL, THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE MOISTURE AND
MID LEVEL FLOW TO PUSH PRECIPITATION OVER THE CREST INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA (TAHOE NORTH). IT IS JUST FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO
MONO COUNTY AND WESTERN NEVADA THAT PRECIPITATION MAY BE SHADOWED
SIGNIFICANTLY, SETTING UP MORE OF A WIND EVENT THAN ANYTHING ELSE.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK
OVERHEAD FOR DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN
BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT TO MORE SEASONAL NUMBERS IN THE 40S (SIERRA)
AND 50S (LOWER VALLEYS). SNYDER
&&
AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ON
SATURDAY. FOR TONIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PUSHING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE LOWER VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO THE SIERRA AND FAR
WESTERN NEVADA. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO LIGHT SHOWERS, MAINLY IN
THE SIERRA, BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR TONIGHT, THE MAIN CIG/VIS/PRECIPITATION CONCERN REMAINS IN THE
SIERRA AND PERHAPS OUT INTO EXTREME WESTERN NEVADA SOUTH OF CARSON
CITY/KCXP. WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND IFR/VIFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY.
AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AT TERMINALS, THE BEST SHOT FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS ON UNTREATED SURFACES WILL BE AT KMMH AND KTVL THIS EVENING
(AFTER 5 PM/01Z) WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOW COMBINES WITH COOLING
SURFACES NEAR SUNSET. BELOW ABOUT 5500 FEET TONIGHT, PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN FOR LITTLE THREAT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. OUT
IN WESTERN NEVADA, THIS WILL MEAN THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURATION. SNYDER
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY NVZ005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ002.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY CAZ070.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1144 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE...SLEET...SNOW...AND FOG WILL CONTINUE WITH CONDITIONS
WORSENING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD
PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION...THOUGH ANY ICE
ACCRETION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES FOR TOMORROW MORNING...WITH 12Z
GFS SUGGESTING UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER BACA
COUNTY...WHILE NAM12 HAS CONSIDERABLY LESS. WILL CARRY THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z FOR THOSE AREAS AND SEE HOW SHORT
RES/HIGH RES MODELS EVOLVE ON THIS. FOR NOW...THINKING IS MORE IN
THE REALM OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE OUT
WEST TODAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALSO SEEING AREAS OF BLOWING DUST BEING
REPORTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...SOUTH OF COLORADO CITY
WHERE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY HIT THE LOWER 60S. HAVE PUT UP A BLOWING
DUST ADVISORY FOR MAINLY HUERFANO AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS
COUNTIES...THOUGH AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THIS MAY END THE BLOWING DUST THREAT. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
UPDATED FORECAST SHORTLY BEFORE 9 AM TO EXTEND DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH 11 AM. ALSO ADDED SOUTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY AS WEB CAMS SHOW VISIBILITIES...PARTICULARLY
NEAR THE BROADMOOR AREA...AND ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTY...
LOOK FAIRLY LOW. ANTICIPATE THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL EAT AWAY AT
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...BUT DENSE FREEZING FOG MAY CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY WHERE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES UNTIL
11 AM. FARTHER EAST...GETTING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SLEET/SNOW MIX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
QUICK CALLS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATING THAT PCPN OUT THAT WAY
IS VERY LIGHT AND NOT POSING PROBLEMS FOR THE ROADS JUST YET. FOG
IS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND A MILE OR LESS WITH ACCRETION OF
ICE ON COLD SURFACES SUCH AS WIND SHIELDS. WILL BE INTERROGATING
REMAINING 12Z RUNS THIS MORNING AND MAKING A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT.
-KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM.
ALSO BROUGHT IN LATEST HRRR WINDS/TEMPS INTO NDFD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
...SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ALONG THE CONTDVD...WIDE RANGING TEMPS ON THE
PLAINS TODAY...
CURRENTLY...AS OF 4 AM...COLD AIR HAS WORKED BACK TOWARDS THE
MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY AREAS AOA 6000 FEET WERE IN THE COLD AIR (20S)
WHILE ELEVATIONS ABOVE WERE IN THE WARM AIR (40S TO AROUND 50F). THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS N EL PASO COUNTY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WAS
DRIVING THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG UP THE PALMER DVD.
MTN VALLEYS WERE WARM AS BUENA VISTA...SALIDA AND A GOOD PART OF
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WERE ABOVE FREEZING (35-40F). HEAVY SNOW WAS
LIKELY POUNDING THE MTNS (KGJT RADAR IS OUT OF COMMISSION AND WONT
RETURN TO SERVICE UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY). WOLF CREEK OB HAS BEEN
REPORTING HEAVY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
IN ADDITION...WEB CAMS WERE SHOWING DENSE FOG ACROSS N EL PASO
COUNTY. KCOS WAS ALSO REPORTING DENSE FOG. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
BEING OBSERVED AT SCHRIEVER AFB.
TODAY...
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONTDVD TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL
FOOT OF SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SAN JUANS WITH 6-12" ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MTNS. HEAVY SNOW...5-10"...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
SANGRES.
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS EARLY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY GIVEN THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW.
TEMPS TODAY WILL VARY DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. HI RES
GUIDANCE INDICATES COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST...BUT I DO
NOT THINK IT WILL GO AS FAR EAST AS GUIDANCE INDICATES. THE WARMEST
AIR WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE PALMER DIVIDE AND AREAS ABOVE 5500 FEET
ON THE PLAINS. MONUMENT HILL WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN DOWNTOWN
COLORADO SPRINGS. PUEBLO WEST WILL BE WARMER THAN PUEBLO.
WALSENBURG...TRINIDAD AND PINON CANYON WILL BE IN THE 60S WHILE EADS
AND LAMAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S. SPRINGFIELD WILL BE
TRICKY...MAX TEMPS THERE I HAVE IN THE 40S...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THEY MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S. BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEREVER THE BOUNDARY IS...IT WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY
BACK TO THE WEST.
AS FOR PRECIP ON THE PLAINS...THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP
WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER...BUT ALL AREAS MAY SEE PASSING
SHOWERS LATER TODAY. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
BOUNDARY LIES. FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW LATER TODAY AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO SEE PRECIP WILL BE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PART OF THE VALLEY.
TONIGHT...
TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS IN THE SAN JUANS WILL AFFECT AREAS
JUST SOUTH OF WOLF CREEK PASS DOWN TO THE CO/NM BORDER. WITH FLOW
TRANSITIONING TO MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY...SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. 4-8" WILL FALL IN THE SAN JUANS S OF WOLF
CREEK...AND 3-7" WILL FALL IN THE C MTNS. A FEW MORE INCHES WILL
FALL ON TOP OF THE SANGRES.
THE PLAINS WILL SEE SNOW BUT OVERALL ACCUMS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER FAR SE CO. THE
ENTIRE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE COLD UPSLOPE AND EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.
THE MTNS/VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS/20S FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
/HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
...COLD SUNDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL CO AT 12Z SUN...AND NR THE
KS BORDER BY 18Z. EXPECT RAPID DECREASE IN PRECIP ACROSS THE MT AREAS
SUN MORNING...MAYBE EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BUT SOME LIGHT
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY. IF
THERE ARE ANY BREAKS...THERE WILL BE RAPID REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
OVER THE PEAKS SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS LOOK REASONABLE. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MTS...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO.
MAIN QUESTION SUNDAY WILL BE PRECIP FOR THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE TREND FOR
A FASTER TROUGH PASSAGE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE SHIFTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EWD...MAINLY INTO KS AND THE
PANHANDLES SUN MORNING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT NR THE KS BORDER. STILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
BANDED SNOW OVR THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING
HOURS AND AREAS E OF I-25. NOT READY TO THROW IN THE TOWEL QUITE YET
FOR SN OVER THE I-25 ZONES. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE COLD ENOUGH...WITH
SHALLOW COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE AND TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING ANYWHERE OVER THE ERN PLAINS. WARMEST WX WILL BE IN
THE HIGH VALLEYS WHICH COULD SEE SOME MID 40S.
WE DRY OUT MON-TUE AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW RESUMES OVER OUR AREA. A
COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...THE FIRST MON
AFTERNOON AND A SECOND TUE NIGHT. THESE COULD BRING SOME RENEWED
SHSN TO THE MTS...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MTS. THE GFS EVEN HINTS AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS LATE TUE OR
EARLY WED...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW.
AFTER A DRY AND WARM THU...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S OVER THE
PLAINS...NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FRI FROM THE NW. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER FRONTAL PUSH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS. IT IS STILL
QUITE A WAYS OUT...SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THEN A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS...GIVING
US A WARMER AND DRY NEXT WEEKEND. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 20Z FOR KCOS AND
KPUB BEFORE FOG LIFTS AND CIGS RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.
MEANWHILE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN FZFG...FZDZ. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD MTN
OBSCURATIONS. KALS AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR WILL SEE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS (UP TO 40-45 KTS) AND CIGS MAINLY IN THE VFR
CATEGORY...THOUGH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND COULD BRING SOME
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. STRATUS WILL SPREAD BACK WESTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH CIGS AND VIS DROPPING BACK INTO THE IFR
TO LIFR CATEGORY DURING THE EVENING. AREAS OF FZDZ...SLEET...AND
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING
WHERE CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN LIFR. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ087-
088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ095>099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061-064-
067-073-075.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060-066-
068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1043 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
UPDATED FORECAST SHORTLY BEFORE 9 AM TO EXTEND DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH 11 AM. ALSO ADDED SOUTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY AS WEB CAMS SHOW VISIBILITIES...PARTICULARLY
NEAR THE BROADMOOR AREA...AND ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTY...
LOOK FAIRLY LOW. ANTICIPATE THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL EAT AWAY AT
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...BUT DENSE FREEZING FOG MAY CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY WHERE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES UNTIL
11 AM. FARTHER EAST...GETTING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SLEET/SNOW MIX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
QUICK CALLS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATING THAT PCPN OUT THAT WAY
IS VERY LIGHT AND NOT POSING PROBLEMS FOR THE ROADS JUST YET. FOG
IS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND A MILE OR LESS WITH ACCRETION OF
ICE ON COLD SURFACES SUCH AS WIND SHIELDS. WILL BE INTERROGATING
REMAINING 12Z RUNS THIS MORNING AND MAKING A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT.
-KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM.
ALSO BROUGHT IN LATEST HRRR WINDS/TEMPS INTO NDFD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
...SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ALONG THE CONTDVD...WIDE RANGING TEMPS ON THE
PLAINS TODAY...
CURRENTLY...AS OF 4 AM...COLD AIR HAS WORKED BACK TOWARDS THE
MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY AREAS AOA 6000 FEET WERE IN THE COLD AIR (20S)
WHILE ELEVATIONS ABOVE WERE IN THE WARM AIR (40S TO AROUND 50F). THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS N EL PASO COUNTY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WAS
DRIVING THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG UP THE PALMER DVD.
MTN VALLEYS WERE WARM AS BUENA VISTA...SALIDA AND A GOOD PART OF
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WERE ABOVE FREEZING (35-40F). HEAVY SNOW WAS
LIKELY POUNDING THE MTNS (KGJT RADAR IS OUT OF COMMISSION AND WONT
RETURN TO SERVICE UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY). WOLF CREEK OB HAS BEEN
REPORTING HEAVY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
IN ADDITION...WEB CAMS WERE SHOWING DENSE FOG ACROSS N EL PASO
COUNTY. KCOS WAS ALSO REPORTING DENSE FOG. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
BEING OBSERVED AT SCHRIEVER AFB.
TODAY...
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONTDVD TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL
FOOT OF SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SAN JUANS WITH 6-12" ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MTNS. HEAVY SNOW...5-10"...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
SANGRES.
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS EARLY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY GIVEN THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW.
TEMPS TODAY WILL VARY DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. HI RES
GUIDANCE INDICATES COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST...BUT I DO
NOT THINK IT WILL GO AS FAR EAST AS GUIDANCE INDICATES. THE WARMEST
AIR WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE PALMER DIVIDE AND AREAS ABOVE 5500 FEET
ON THE PLAINS. MONUMENT HILL WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN DOWNTOWN
COLORADO SPRINGS. PUEBLO WEST WILL BE WARMER THAN PUEBLO.
WALSENBURG...TRINIDAD AND PINON CANYON WILL BE IN THE 60S WHILE EADS
AND LAMAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S. SPRINGFIELD WILL BE
TRICKY...MAX TEMPS THERE I HAVE IN THE 40S...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THEY MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S. BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEREVER THE BOUNDARY IS...IT WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY
BACK TO THE WEST.
AS FOR PRECIP ON THE PLAINS...THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP
WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER...BUT ALL AREAS MAY SEE PASSING
SHOWERS LATER TODAY. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
BOUNDARY LIES. FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW LATER TODAY AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO SEE PRECIP WILL BE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PART OF THE VALLEY.
TONIGHT...
TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS IN THE SAN JUANS WILL AFFECT AREAS
JUST SOUTH OF WOLF CREEK PASS DOWN TO THE CO/NM BORDER. WITH FLOW
TRANSITIONING TO MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY...SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. 4-8" WILL FALL IN THE SAN JUANS S OF WOLF
CREEK...AND 3-7" WILL FALL IN THE C MTNS. A FEW MORE INCHES WILL
FALL ON TOP OF THE SANGRES.
THE PLAINS WILL SEE SNOW BUT OVERALL ACCUMS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER FAR SE CO. THE
ENTIRE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE COLD UPSLOPE AND EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.
THE MTNS/VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS/20S FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
/HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
...COLD SUNDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL CO AT 12Z SUN...AND NR THE
KS BORDER BY 18Z. EXPECT RAPID DECREASE IN PRECIP ACROSS THE MT AREAS
SUN MORNING...MAYBE EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BUT SOME LIGHT
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY. IF
THERE ARE ANY BREAKS...THERE WILL BE RAPID REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
OVER THE PEAKS SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS LOOK REASONABLE. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MTS...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO.
MAIN QUESTION SUNDAY WILL BE PRECIP FOR THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE TREND FOR
A FASTER TROUGH PASSAGE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE SHIFTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EWD...MAINLY INTO KS AND THE
PANHANDLES SUN MORNING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT NR THE KS BORDER. STILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
BANDED SNOW OVR THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING
HOURS AND AREAS E OF I-25. NOT READY TO THROW IN THE TOWEL QUITE YET
FOR SN OVER THE I-25 ZONES. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE COLD ENOUGH...WITH
SHALLOW COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE AND TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING ANYWHERE OVER THE ERN PLAINS. WARMEST WX WILL BE IN
THE HIGH VALLEYS WHICH COULD SEE SOME MID 40S.
WE DRY OUT MON-TUE AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW RESUMES OVER OUR AREA. A
COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...THE FIRST MON
AFTERNOON AND A SECOND TUE NIGHT. THESE COULD BRING SOME RENEWED
SHSN TO THE MTS...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MTS. THE GFS EVEN HINTS AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS LATE TUE OR
EARLY WED...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW.
AFTER A DRY AND WARM THU...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S OVER THE
PLAINS...NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FRI FROM THE NW. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER FRONTAL PUSH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS. IT IS STILL
QUITE A WAYS OUT...SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THEN A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS...GIVING
US A WARMER AND DRY NEXT WEEKEND. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 20Z FOR KCOS AND
KPUB BEFORE FOG LIFTS AND CIGS RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.
MEANWHILE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN FZFG...FZDZ. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD MTN
OBSCURATIONS. KALS AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR WILL SEE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS (UP TO 40-45 KTS) AND CIGS MAINLY IN THE VFR
CATEGORY...THOUGH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND COULD BRING SOME
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. STRATUS WILL SPREAD BACK WESTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH CIGS AND VIS DROPPING BACK INTO THE IFR
TO LIFR CATEGORY DURING THE EVENING. AREAS OF FZDZ...SLEET...AND
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING
WHERE CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN LIFR. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ084-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061-064-
067-073-075.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ087-
088.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060-066-
068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
940 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
UPDATED FORECAST SHORTLY BEFORE 9 AM TO EXTEND DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH 11 AM. ALSO ADDED SOUTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY AS WEB CAMS SHOW VISIBILITIES...PARTICULARLY
NEAR THE BROADMOOR AREA...AND ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTY...
LOOK FAIRLY LOW. ANTICIPATE THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL EAT AWAY AT
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...BUT DENSE FREEZING FOG MAY CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY WHERE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES UNTIL
11 AM. FARTHER EAST...GETTING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SLEET/SNOW MIX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
QUICK CALLS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATING THAT PCPN OUT THAT WAY
IS VERY LIGHT AND NOT POSING PROBLEMS FOR THE ROADS JUST YET. FOG
IS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND A MILE OR LESS WITH ACCRETION OF
ICE ON COLD SURFACES SUCH AS WIND SHIELDS. WILL BE INTERROGATING
REMAINING 12Z RUNS THIS MORNING AND MAKING A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT.
-KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM.
ALSO BROUGHT IN LATEST HRRR WINDS/TEMPS INTO NDFD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
...SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ALONG THE CONTDVD...WIDE RANGING TEMPS ON THE
PLAINS TODAY...
CURRENTLY...AS OF 4 AM...COLD AIR HAS WORKED BACK TOWARDS THE
MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY AREAS AOA 6000 FEET WERE IN THE COLD AIR (20S)
WHILE ELEVATIONS ABOVE WERE IN THE WARM AIR (40S TO AROUND 50F). THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS N EL PASO COUNTY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WAS
DRIVING THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG UP THE PALMER DVD.
MTN VALLEYS WERE WARM AS BUENA VISTA...SALIDA AND A GOOD PART OF
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WERE ABOVE FREEZING (35-40F). HEAVY SNOW WAS
LIKELY POUNDING THE MTNS (KGJT RADAR IS OUT OF COMMISSION AND WONT
RETURN TO SERVICE UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY). WOLF CREEK OB HAS BEEN
REPORTING HEAVY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
IN ADDITION...WEB CAMS WERE SHOWING DENSE FOG ACROSS N EL PASO
COUNTY. KCOS WAS ALSO REPORTING DENSE FOG. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
BEING OBSERVED AT SCHRIEVER AFB.
TODAY...
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONTDVD TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL
FOOT OF SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SAN JUANS WITH 6-12" ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MTNS. HEAVY SNOW...5-10"...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
SANGRES.
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS EARLY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY GIVEN THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW.
TEMPS TODAY WILL VARY DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. HI RES
GUIDANCE INDICATES COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST...BUT I DO
NOT THINK IT WILL GO AS FAR EAST AS GUIDANCE INDICATES. THE WARMEST
AIR WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE PALMER DIVIDE AND AREAS ABOVE 5500 FEET
ON THE PLAINS. MONUMENT HILL WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN DOWNTOWN
COLORADO SPRINGS. PUEBLO WEST WILL BE WARMER THAN PUEBLO.
WALSENBURG...TRINIDAD AND PINON CANYON WILL BE IN THE 60S WHILE EADS
AND LAMAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S. SPRINGFIELD WILL BE
TRICKY...MAX TEMPS THERE I HAVE IN THE 40S...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THEY MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S. BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEREVER THE BOUNDARY IS...IT WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY
BACK TO THE WEST.
AS FOR PRECIP ON THE PLAINS...THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP
WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER...BUT ALL AREAS MAY SEE PASSING
SHOWERS LATER TODAY. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
BOUNDARY LIES. FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW LATER TODAY AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO SEE PRECIP WILL BE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PART OF THE VALLEY.
TONIGHT...
TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS IN THE SAN JUANS WILL AFFECT AREAS
JUST SOUTH OF WOLF CREEK PASS DOWN TO THE CO/NM BORDER. WITH FLOW
TRANSITIONING TO MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY...SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. 4-8" WILL FALL IN THE SAN JUANS S OF WOLF
CREEK...AND 3-7" WILL FALL IN THE C MTNS. A FEW MORE INCHES WILL
FALL ON TOP OF THE SANGRES.
THE PLAINS WILL SEE SNOW BUT OVERALL ACCUMS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER FAR SE CO. THE
ENTIRE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE COLD UPSLOPE AND EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.
THE MTNS/VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS/20S FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
/HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
...COLD SUNDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL CO AT 12Z SUN...AND NR THE
KS BORDER BY 18Z. EXPECT RAPID DECREASE IN PRECIP ACROSS THE MT AREAS
SUN MORNING...MAYBE EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BUT SOME LIGHT
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY. IF
THERE ARE ANY BREAKS...THERE WILL BE RAPID REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
OVER THE PEAKS SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS LOOK REASONABLE. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MTS...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO.
MAIN QUESTION SUNDAY WILL BE PRECIP FOR THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE TREND FOR
A FASTER TROUGH PASSAGE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE SHIFTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EWD...MAINLY INTO KS AND THE
PANHANDLES SUN MORNING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT NR THE KS BORDER. STILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
BANDED SNOW OVR THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING
HOURS AND AREAS E OF I-25. NOT READY TO THROW IN THE TOWEL QUITE YET
FOR SN OVER THE I-25 ZONES. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE COLD ENOUGH...WITH
SHALLOW COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE AND TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING ANYWHERE OVER THE ERN PLAINS. WARMEST WX WILL BE IN
THE HIGH VALLEYS WHICH COULD SEE SOME MID 40S.
WE DRY OUT MON-TUE AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW RESUMES OVER OUR AREA. A
COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...THE FIRST MON
AFTERNOON AND A SECOND TUE NIGHT. THESE COULD BRING SOME RENEWED
SHSN TO THE MTS...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MTS. THE GFS EVEN HINTS AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS LATE TUE OR
EARLY WED...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW.
AFTER A DRY AND WARM THU...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S OVER THE
PLAINS...NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FRI FROM THE NW. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER FRONTAL PUSH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS. IT IS STILL
QUITE A WAYS OUT...SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THEN A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS...GIVING
US A WARMER AND DRY NEXT WEEKEND. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KCOS
AND KALS NEXT 24H. MAIN CONCERN TODAY AT KCOS AND ESPECIALLY KPUB
WILL BE GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 30 KNOTS. KALS MAY
HAVE -SN VCNTY TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE THAT SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP AT KCOS AND KPUB AROUND SUNRISE
TOMORROW.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ084-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061-064-
067-073-075.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060-066-
068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
704 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM.
ALSO BROUGHT IN LATEST HRRR WINDS/TEMPS INTO NDFD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
...SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ALONG THE CONTDVD...WIDE RANGING TEMPS ON THE
PLAINS TODAY...
CURRENTLY...AS OF 4 AM...COLD AIR HAS WORKED BACK TOWARDS THE
MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY AREAS AOA 6000 FEET WERE IN THE COLD AIR (20S)
WHILE ELEVATIONS ABOVE WERE IN THE WARM AIR (40S TO AROUND 50F). THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS N EL PASO COUNTY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WAS
DRIVING THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG UP THE PALMER DVD.
MTN VALLEYS WERE WARM AS BUENA VISTA...SALIDA AND A GOOD PART OF
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WERE ABOVE FREEZING (35-40F). HEAVY SNOW WAS
LIKELY POUNDING THE MTNS (KGJT RADAR IS OUT OF COMMISSION AND WONT
RETURN TO SERVICE UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY). WOLF CREEK OB HAS BEEN
REPORTING HEAVY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
IN ADDITION...WEB CAMS WERE SHOWING DENSE FOG ACROSS N EL PASO
COUNTY. KCOS WAS ALSO REPORTING DENSE FOG. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
BEING OBSERVED AT SCHRIEVER AFB.
TODAY...
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONTDVD TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL
FOOT OF SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SAN JUANS WITH 6-12" ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MTNS. HEAVY SNOW...5-10"...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
SANGRES.
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS EARLY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY GIVEN THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW.
TEMPS TODAY WILL VARY DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. HI RES
GUIDANCE INDICATES COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST...BUT I DO
NOT THINK IT WILL GO AS FAR EAST AS GUIDANCE INDICATES. THE WARMEST
AIR WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE PALMER DIVIDE AND AREAS ABOVE 5500 FEET
ON THE PLAINS. MONUMENT HILL WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN DOWNTOWN
COLORADO SPRINGS. PUEBLO WEST WILL BE WARMER THAN PUEBLO.
WALSENBURG...TRINIDAD AND PINON CANYON WILL BE IN THE 60S WHILE EADS
AND LAMAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S. SPRINGFIELD WILL BE
TRICKY...MAX TEMPS THERE I HAVE IN THE 40S...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THEY MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S. BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEREVER THE BOUNDARY IS...IT WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY
BACK TO THE WEST.
AS FOR PRECIP ON THE PLAINS...THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP
WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER...BUT ALL AREAS MAY SEE PASSING
SHOWERS LATER TODAY. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
BOUNDARY LIES. FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW LATER TODAY AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO SEE PRECIP WILL BE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PART OF THE VALLEY.
TONIGHT...
TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS IN THE SAN JUANS WILL AFFECT AREAS
JUST SOUTH OF WOLF CREEK PASS DOWN TO THE CO/NM BORDER. WITH FLOW
TRANSITIONING TO MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY...SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. 4-8" WILL FALL IN THE SAN JUANS S OF WOLF
CREEK...AND 3-7" WILL FALL IN THE C MTNS. A FEW MORE INCHES WILL
FALL ON TOP OF THE SANGRES.
THE PLAINS WILL SEE SNOW BUT OVERALL ACCUMS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER FAR SE CO. THE
ENTIRE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE COLD UPSLOPE AND EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.
THE MTNS/VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS/20S FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
/HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
...COLD SUNDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THROUGH CENTRAL CO AT 12Z SUN...AND NR THE
KS BORDER BY 18Z. EXPECT RAPID DECREASE IN PRECIP ACROSS THE MT AREAS
SUN MORNING...MAYBE EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BUT SOME LIGHT
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY. IF
THERE ARE ANY BREAKS...THERE WILL BE RAPID REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
OVER THE PEAKS SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS LOOK REASONABLE. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MTS...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO.
MAIN QUESTION SUNDAY WILL BE PRECIP FOR THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE TREND FOR
A FASTER TROUGH PASSAGE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE SHIFTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OVER THE PLAINS EWD...MAINLY INTO KS AND THE
PANHANDLES SUN MORNING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT NR THE KS BORDER. STILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
BANDED SNOW OVR THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING
HOURS AND AREAS E OF I-25. NOT READY TO THROW IN THE TOWEL QUITE YET
FOR SN OVER THE I-25 ZONES. IT WILL DEFINITELY BE COLD ENOUGH...WITH
SHALLOW COLD AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE AND TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING ANYWHERE OVER THE ERN PLAINS. WARMEST WX WILL BE IN
THE HIGH VALLEYS WHICH COULD SEE SOME MID 40S.
WE DRY OUT MON-TUE AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW RESUMES OVER OUR AREA. A
COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...THE FIRST MON
AFTERNOON AND A SECOND TUE NIGHT. THESE COULD BRING SOME RENEWED
SHSN TO THE MTS...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MTS. THE GFS EVEN HINTS AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS LATE TUE OR
EARLY WED...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW.
AFTER A DRY AND WARM THU...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S OVER THE
PLAINS...NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FRI FROM THE NW. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER FRONTAL PUSH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS. IT IS STILL
QUITE A WAYS OUT...SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THEN A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS...GIVING
US A WARMER AND DRY NEXT WEEKEND. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KCOS
AND KALS NEXT 24H. MAIN CONCERN TODAY AT KCOS AND ESPECIALLY KPUB
WILL BE GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 30 KNOTS. KALS MAY
HAVE -SN VCNTY TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE THAT SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP AT KCOS AND KPUB AROUND SUNRISE
TOMORROW.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061-064-
067-073-075.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060-066-
068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
714 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE...STALLING WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT...BRUSHING THE SOUTH COAST WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.
THEREAFTER DRY BUT MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER OVERSPREADS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN OCEAN STORM MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THU/FRI...OR MAY HARMLESSLY DRIFT OUT TO SEA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DRYING OUT LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS
CT...MUCH OF INTERIOR MA AND NEARBY NH. THIS IS RESULTING
IN RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS AROUND 9000FT OR SO WITH LOTS
OF DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE. THUS DILEMMA REMAINS HOW FAR
NORTH WILL SNOW SHIELD PENETRATE DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE
REGION. CONTINUE TO THINK AREA OF HIGHEST RISK FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BE OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE INCREASING NNE
WINDS OFF THE OCEAN WILL SATURATE LOW LEVELS TOWARD
MORNING...YIELDING A DEEP COLUMN OF MOISTURE ACROSS THIS REGION.
THEREFORE THIS AREA STANDS THE HIGHEST RISK FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
RECENT 18Z NAM/GFS-15Z SREF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST STEADIER
SNOWS EXIT THE OH VALLEY AT 00Z/7PM WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD AND ISLANDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
09Z/4AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z/7AM BEFORE EXITING LATER IN THE
MORNING. NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST IT COULD BE A
COMPLETE SHUTOUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL. THUS HIGHEST
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS WHERE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS POSTED...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER NEXT SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW SNOW SHIELD EVOLVES...WHICH MAY BE
MORE OFFSHORE THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
CANCELING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH
THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
*** TIGHT SNOW GRADIENT EXPECTED BEGINNING TONIGHT ***
VERY WEAK SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ISLANDS
AND CONTINUING A SLOW MARCH TO THE S. MSAS MASS FIELDS SHOWS THE
WAVE OF LOW PRES ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER VA/NC THIS
AFTERNOON...PRETTY CLOSE TO WHERE MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. THE BULK OF PRECIP FROM THE FRONT ITSELF HAS SHIFTED
OFFSHORE...AND REMAINED RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AS LIFT WAS VERY
WEAK TO BEGIN WITH.
THIS WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLOW MARCH TO THE NE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH WRAP AROUND WARM CONVEYOR SIGNAL SPREADING N TO BRUSH
THE COASTAL REGIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 04-07Z.
THE REAL ISSUE HERE IS HOW FAR N THIS BANDING GETS. NOTING A
COMBINATION OF VERY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS RAPID DRYING
OF THE LOW LVLS AS SFC DWPTS DIP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS SRN NH AND INTO MUCH OF INTERIOR MA BY 12Z.
THEREFORE...EVEN IF RETURNS ON RADAR SPREAD FURTHER N OF THE
CT/RI BORDER OVERNIGHT...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER REACHES OF THE
COLUMN MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH ACTUALLY REACHES THE SFC. INDEED THE
MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO LOWER LIQUID EQUIVALENTS AND SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OFFSHORE. WITH ADJUSTMENTS TODAY...EVEN AREAS WITH
CURRENT ADVISORIES ONLY JUST BREAK THE 3 INCH TOTAL MARK THANKS TO
NEAR 15 TO 1 RATIOS /A LITTLE HIGHER ON ACK...MAYBE APPROACHING
4/. IF YOU NOTE A LACK OF OVERALL CONFIDENCE HERE IT/S BECAUSE
WITH THE LIFT BEING SO WEAK AND OUT OF THE FAVORED -12C TO -18C
SNOW GROWTH REGION AND OVERALL QPF VALUES...IT MAY BE THAT CURRENT
ADVISORIES DON/T FULLY PAN OUT. HOWEVER ONLY A SLIGHT /LIKE 20-30
MILES/ N SHIFT IN THE OFFSHORE BANDING MAY MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE
HERE...SO WILL MAINTAIN THEM AS THEY STAND DUE TO HOW CLOSE IT MAY
GET. IF MID CREW ASSESS BETTER BANDING REMAINS OFFSHORE...THEY MAY
WISH TO DROP IT EARLY. THERE IS ONE ENHANCEMENT FEATURE TO
NOTE...A SLIGHT N-NE WIND COMPONENT DRAWING IN THE COLDER AIR FROM
NRN NEW ENGLAND MAY LEAD TO SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE S SHORE WHICH EXTENDS INTO MA BAY AND
CAPE COD BAY...AS WELL AS THE CAPE ITSELF. NANTUCKET MAY HAVE
ENOUGH DRAW OVER NANTUCKET SOUND FOR THIS AS WELL. DO NOTE A
PERIOD WHERE SFC-H85 LAPSE RATES REACH NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LEVELS.
THIS MAY HELP SNOW TOTALS A BIT ESPECIALLY IN THE PEAK 06-12Z
TIMEFRAME.
FURTHER N...LOOKING AT A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HAVES AND
HAVE NOT/S WITH THIS EVENT. AREAS ESPECIALLY N OF THE ROUTE-6 AND
I-195 CORRIDORS /EXCEPT FOR E COASTAL MA DUE TO THE OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT MENTIONED ABOVE/ MAY STRUGGLE AS THE DRY AIR ENTRAINS
FURTHER S...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE CORE OF
WEAK LIFT ALOFT AND LEADING TO VIRGA. STILL A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE UP TO THE MA PIKE BY THE TIMING OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A LOW END IMPACT...BUT OBSERVATION VS
RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
TO BETTER REFINE THE SNOW TOTALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A GRADUAL END TO THE SNOWS FOR SRN CT/RI AND SE MA IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS BOTH THE LOW PRES AND ATTENDANT FRONT
PUSH FURTHER S AND E OF THE REGION...MOVING THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
FURTHER OFFSHORE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY NEED TO WATCH SOME
AREAS FOR LIGHT SNOW DURING THE COMMUTE BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS
THE ROUTE 6 FROM CT AND RI INTO THE I-195 CORRIDOR AND S SHORE OF
MA. IN FACT...SOME AREAS OF SRN NH MAY ACTUALLY SEE THE
SUNRISE...WHERE THE DRY/COLD AIRMASS HAS ALREADY MOVED IN.
AFTER THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL ENDS...A COLD AIRMASS WILL BEGIN
MOVING SE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. H85 TEMPS
MAY BE APPROACHING -14C BY 00Z. THEREFORE...EXPECT MAXES TO BE ON
THE ORDER OF 10F COLDER THAN SUN. RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO UPPER 20S.
WITH H85 TEMPS APPROACHING -14C AND SST NEAR +2C...MAY NEED TO
WATCH ESPECIALLY THE OUTER CAPE COD FOR A PERIOD OF LATE DAY OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS. WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL BE
SHIFTING FROM NEAR DUE N TO NW WITH TIME...SO JUST ENOUGH OF A
COMPONENT TO SUPPORT A BRUSH AS THEY DEVELOP INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* 15 TO 20 DEGS COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH WED
* NOT AS COLD THU/FRI/SAT
* WATCHING OCEAN STORM THU/FRI
MONDAY NIGHT...
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD A
RISK OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MA. SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIMINISH SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS MID LEVEL FLOW
TRANSITIONS FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTICYCLONIC. ELSEWHERE VERY COLD AND
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING LATE. LOW TEMPS MON
NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 15-20 DEGS COLDER THAN NORMAL.
TUESDAY...
VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. IN FACT NEAR RECORD COLD MINS MON
NGT/TUE MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. FOR EXAMPLE BDL/S RECORD MIN
TUE MAR 4TH IS +2F IN 1950. OUR FORECAST MIN TUE MORNING FOR BDL IS
+4F. ORH/BOS AND PVD APPEAR SAFE FROM BREAKING ANY RECORD LOWS.
NONETHELESS A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY TUE. PGRAD RELAXES BY
AFTN...THUS DIMINISHING WIND. HOWEVER HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S WHICH
ARE 15-20 DEGS COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH!
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BROAD WEST TO EAST
CONFIGURATION OF ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC YIELDS A LONG
MOIST EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH ACROSS GULF OF MAINE AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY YIELD PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE COLD WEATHER CONTINUES.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...
MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING WITH NEXT SYSTEM. GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES. NEVERTHELESS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A POTENT AND MOIST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF STATES THIS PERIOD. ALL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST STREAMS WILL REMAIN SEPARATE YIELDING AN UNPHASED
SOLUTION. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A NOT A BIG EVENT FOR NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THERE IS LARGE SPREAD AT THE SURFACE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY NOT REACH OUR LATITUDE WITH
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE/PRECIP REMAINING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. IF
THE NORTHERN PRECIP SHIELD DOES REACH OUR LATITUDE COLD AIR IS
RETREATING NORTH-NORTHEAST BACK INTO CANADA DURING THIS TIME. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF COLD NORTHERN STREAM MERGER...ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD BE PTYPE ISSUES AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...
LIKELY DRY BUT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR INVADING NEW ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH NOT OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE
OF PREVIOUS COLD AIR OUTBREAKS HERE. GEFS ANOMALIES SUGGEST 850 MB
TEMPS DIPPING TO ABOUT -1 STANDARD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL
TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT SNOW/NO SNOW LINE OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW.
7 PM UPDATE...
TRENDED 00Z TAFS FARTHER SOUTH WITH LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS WHICH
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...POSSIBLY
IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA. STEADIER SNOWS ARRIVE AFTER
06Z AND CONTINUES THRU 12Z MON BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY 15Z.
VFR DEVELOPING EVERYWHERE AFTER 15Z MON WITH N WINDS WITH GUSTS
15-20 KT AND VFR CONDITIONS.
PRELIM ACCUMULATIONS...
2-4" KFMH/KHYA/KACK
0-1" KPVD
0-1" KBDL/KBOS
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW KBAF/KORH/KBED/KMHT
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
LITTLE TO NO SNOW DEVELOPS FOR BOS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY
SNOW REMAINS ONLY A COATING WITH MOSTLY MVFR/VFR VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MON NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT LOW PROB OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS EASTERN MA
ALONG WITH GUSTY NNE WIND. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR WITH A DIMINISHING WIND. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT...VFR HOWEVER PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN
VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. MODEST NE WIND WITH STRONGEST WIND
EASTERN MA. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
THU/FRI...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS OCEAN LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH AND ANOTHER LOW EXITS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
SAVE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR THE SRN
WATERS.
AS LOW PRES PASSES WELL S OF THE COASTAL WATERS...N WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT THEY GUST TO
25 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OCEAN AND E INTRA-COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY MON. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WITH TIME AS
WELL...REACHING 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH EXCEPT LOW THU/FRI.
MONDAY NIGHT...MODEST NNE WIND. ARCTIC AIRMASS COMBINED WITH NNE
WIND WILL LIKELY YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST MA WATERS.
TUESDAY...WINDS DIMINISH. GOOD VSBY AND DRY WEATHER.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF NEXT ARCTIC
HIGH. VSBY REDUCED AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.
THU/FRI...OCEAN LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...BUT MAY JUST DRIFT
OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE IMPACT. NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR MAZ022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-
251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
708 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AND MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA...WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...THERE WILL BE A BREAK WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z...WHEN
THE PRECIPITATION BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE SECOND WAVE
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE NAM AND HRRR PICKING UP ON THIS TREND
ALSO. SO HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE LOWER POPS HAVE LOWERED THE QPF AND SNOW TOTALS. THIS NOW
GIVES JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER WITH IMPACTS TO THE
MORNING COMMUTE HAVE LET THE ADVISORY POSTED.
A COLD FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING NE ALONG THE FRONT. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PCPN TYPE OF
SNOW...BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME SLEET TO MIX IN VERY
EARLY IN THE EVENING. FOR MOST THE NIGHT...LIFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE STRONG. IT`S NOT UNTIL LATE AT NIGHT WHERE SOME MID LEVEL LIFT
DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SHIFTING IN
FROM THE WEST COME INTO PLAY. SO EXPECTING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TONIGHT.
OVERALL LIFT INCREASES MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE BEST SYNOPTIC
LIFT WILL BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...THE BEST MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW SUPPRESSES MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH SNOW ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 11:1
FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER RATIOS
BEING REALIZED ALONG THE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES DUE TO FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND OCCURRING TOO LATE IN THE GAME. OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE NEVER GETS TOO IMPRESSIVE EITHER.
DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW JUST
OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EVENT WILL BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...WITH HIGHS DURING
MONDAY ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABNORMALLY
COLD...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR THE CITY AND NEARBY AREAS OF LONG
ISLAND. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE...AND EVEN SOME SPOTS
BELOW ZERO OVER THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF MOVE THE LOW THROUGH. WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS BRINGING THE LOW THROUGH HAVE LEANED TOWARD THAT SOLUTION
FOR CONSISTENCY. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND PRECIPITATION
LIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE WAVE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION...ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...SHIFTING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
AMPLIFYING. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND TRACK NORTHEAST. WITH THE HIGH REMAINING TO THE NORTH
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW WILL MOVE BELOW MOVING OFF
SHORE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW KEEPING THE
PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. AND MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
REMAIN WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE MOST VARIABILITY AND NOT AS DEEP AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. AGAIN FOR CONSISTENCY HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME
BLEND OF THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME
MODERATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGHS MOVES EAST AND
SOME WARMER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MADE PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TAFS JUST BEFORE THE 00Z
ISSUANCE. ONE AREA OF LIGHT PCPN HAS EXITED NYC TERMINALS AND
LATEST RADAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WE SHOULD REMAIN
VFR AND DRY UNTIL AROUND 07-08Z. AT THAT POINT...THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE PCPN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NYC TERMINALS AND
EXPAND EASTWARD. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE SNOW FOR THE SHORT
DURATION OF 3-6 HOURS THAT IT IS OVER THE TERMINALS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO CUT BACK ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PCPN SHIELD
WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY AT KEWR/KJFK WHERE AROUND 2 INCHES IS
EXPECTED. AMOUNTS AT KSWF WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
TIMING MAY BE OFF 1-2 HOURS...BUT HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST. GUSTS PICK UP LATE AND MAY BE HOLDING ON TO THEM A FEW
HOURS TOO LONG MON AFTN.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.WED...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR IN -SHSN.
.WED NIGHT-THU...VFR LIKELY.
.THU NIGHT-FRI...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...CREATING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE AREA WATERS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG A COLD FRONT TO
THE SOUTH. SCA-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD COMMENCE OVERNIGHT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND LAST INTO A GOOD PORTION OF MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...MARGINAL SCA-LEVEL GUSTS AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A
LONG ENOUGH AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH ADVISORY EVENT. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT
THE NON-OCEAN WATERS OUT OF THE SCA. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH
EVERYWHERE MONDAY NIGH AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE GETS CLOSER TO
THE REGION.
WINDS AND WAVES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST WATERS. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS MAY BE AROUND SMALL
CRAFT...AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ALSO MAY BE AROUND 5 FT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH REGARD TO LIQUID EQUIVALENT...GENERALLY EXPECT JUST UNDER ONE
TENTH AND UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
ACROSS LONG ISLAND...NYC...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NJ. SINCE ALMOST
ALL OF THE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...NO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR NYZ072>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR NJZ006-
105>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
605 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AND MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA...WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...THERE WILL BE A BREAK WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z...WHEN
THE PRECIPITATION BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE SECOND WAVE
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE NAM AND HRRR PICKING UP ON THIS TREND
ALSO. SO HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE LOWER POPS HAVE LOWERED THE QPF AND SNOW TOTALS. THIS NOW
GIVES JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER WITH IMPACTS TO THE
MORNING COMMUTE HAVE LET THE ADVISORY POSTED.
A COLD FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING NE ALONG THE FRONT. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PCPN TYPE OF
SNOW...BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME SLEET TO MIX IN VERY
EARLY IN THE EVENING. FOR MOST THE NIGHT...LIFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE STRONG. IT`S NOT UNTIL LATE AT NIGHT WHERE SOME MID LEVEL LIFT
DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SHIFTING IN
FROM THE WEST COME INTO PLAY. SO EXPECTING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TONIGHT.
OVERALL LIFT INCREASES MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE BEST SYNOPTIC
LIFT WILL BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...THE BEST MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW SUPPRESSES MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH SNOW ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 11:1
FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER RATIOS
BEING REALIZED ALONG THE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES DUE TO FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND OCCURRING TOO LATE IN THE GAME. OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE NEVER GETS TOO IMPRESSIVE EITHER.
DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW JUST
OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EVENT WILL BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...WITH HIGHS DURING
MONDAY ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABNORMALLY
COLD...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR THE CITY AND NEARBY AREAS OF LONG
ISLAND. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE...AND EVEN SOME SPOTS
BELOW ZERO OVER THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF MOVE THE LOW THROUGH. WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS BRINGING THE LOW THROUGH HAVE LEANED TOWARD THAT SOLUTION
FOR CONSISTENCY. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND PRECIPITATION
LIGHT...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE WAVE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION...ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...SHIFTING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
AMPLIFYING. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND TRACK NORTHEAST. WITH THE HIGH REMAINING TO THE NORTH
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW WILL MOVE BELOW MOVING OFF
SHORE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW KEEPING THE
PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. AND MODEL UNCERTAINTIES
REMAIN WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE MOST VARIABILITY AND NOT AS DEEP AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. AGAIN FOR CONSISTENCY HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME
BLEND OF THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME
MODERATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGHS MOVES EAST AND
SOME WARMER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
NW-NNW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEED AROUND 12-15 KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT.
VFR TRANSITIONS TO MVFR THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY DETERIORATING TO
IFR LATE WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
EXCEPTION WILL BE KSWF WHICH WILL LOWER ONLY TO MVFR. OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE A MIX OF
SNOW/RAIN/SLEET TOWARDS THE COAST BEFORE BECOMING STEADY SNOW
TONIGHT. SNOW COULD OCCASIONALLY BE HEAVIER BUT THINK THAT IFR WILL
BE LOWER LIMIT OF CONDITIONS.
CATEGORICAL CHANGES OF 1-3 HRS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LATER FORECASTS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY SO AMENDMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST...NYC AND LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS...AROUND 2-3 INCHES AND GENERALLY AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR
LESS TO THE NORTH WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON...VFR. N-NW GUSTS 20-25 KT.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.WED...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR IN -SHSN.
.WED NIGHT-THU...VFR LIKELY.
.THU NIGHT-FRI...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...CREATING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE AREA WATERS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG A COLD FRONT TO
THE SOUTH. SCA-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD COMMENCE OVERNIGHT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND LAST INTO A GOOD PORTION OF MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...MARGINAL SCA-LEVEL GUSTS AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A
LONG ENOUGH AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH ADVISORY EVENT. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT
THE NON-OCEAN WATERS OUT OF THE SCA. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH
EVERYWHERE MONDAY NIGH AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE GETS CLOSER TO
THE REGION.
WINDS AND WAVES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST WATERS. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS MAY BE AROUND SMALL
CRAFT...AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ALSO MAY BE AROUND 5 FT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH REGARD TO LIQUID EQUIVALENT...GENERALLY EXPECT JUST UNDER ONE
TENTH AND UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
ACROSS LONG ISLAND...NYC...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NJ. SINCE ALMOST
ALL OF THE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...NO
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR NYZ072>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR NJZ006-
105>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
938 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG INLAND TONIGHT...
.UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FARTHER ESE FROM THE FL ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING SSW. THE FOG BANK THAT
WAS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST COMPLETELY ERODED THIS EVENING...BUT
IT REMAINS PROBABLE THAT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ST JOHNS
RIVER BASIN AS DEW PT DEPRESSIONS FALL INTO THE 1-2 DEG RANGE WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. FARTHER INLAND...TEMPS STILL NEED TO
COOL BY ABOUT 5-8 DEG OVER INLAND SE GA AND INLAND NE FL BEFORE
SATURATION BEGINS. THE LOW STRATUS SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY
CONTINUED TO PERSIST...BUT RECENTLY BECAME MORE FRAGMENTED. THE
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR (RAPID REFRESH) AND
NARRE CONTINUED TO HINT AT LOW STRATUS FORMING OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE AND DRIFTING NNE TOWARD OUR SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY ZONES
AND INLAND SE GA ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADVERTISED PATCHY FOG OVER
OUR GA ZONES WHERE SW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL PROGRESSIVELY
INCREASE FROM THE SSW TO 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE BETTER
CHANCES FOR SOME DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN OVER INLAND NE FL AFTER
MIDNIGHT CLOSER TO MEAN LAYER SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO
FALL TO MINS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 50S COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...WINDS RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE NOW FROM THE SW AND
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. EXPECT STRATUS TO SPREAD NE FROM THE GULF
REACHING TAF LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AS RAPID REFRESH ENSEMBLE
INDICATES. BEST CHANCE OF DENSE FOG/LOW CIGS WILL BE AT GNV WITH
LIGHT FOG/LOW CIGS MORE LIKELY FURTHER EAST TOWARDS MORNING. WILL GO
WITH IFR/LIFR AT GNV 06Z-13Z...AND AT JAX...CRG...VQQ...AND SSI
09Z-14Z.
&&
.MARINE...
VARIABLE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING WITH COMBINED SEAS OF
2-4 FT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SSE OVER S FL AND
PULL FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WITH LOCAL
SURFACE WINDS VEERING SSW AND INCREASING TO NEAR 10-15 KTS
NEARSHORE TO 15 KTS OFFSHORE. MAIN CHANGE TO THE MARINE FORECAST
WAS TO IMPROVE FOG WORDING ALONG THE COAST
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIPS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 50 75 42 54 / 0 50 20 30
SSI 56 77 48 56 / 0 30 30 30
JAX 52 81 50 61 / 0 30 30 30
SGJ 56 80 56 60 / 0 20 20 20
GNV 51 79 53 69 / 0 20 20 20
OCF 54 81 57 73 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/ZIBURA/MCALLISTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
936 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. DRY BUT COLDER
WEATHER EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ARCTIC AIR
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NATION WHERE TEMPERATURES AT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH ARE
WELL BELOW ZERO OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA AND IOWA. EARLIER
THIS EVENING AT 23Z TEXAS HAD A TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM 92 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE TO 8 DEGREES IN THE PANHANDLE!
THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
BUT WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT OVER AND SPILL DOWN TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND LEAD TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN THE DAY JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT
WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE
DAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND MIDDAY IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY FALL
WITH LOWER 40S ENTERING THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY EARLY EVENING.
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AS THE COLD AIR
ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET
REMAINS ACROSS PRIMARILY LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES. AS
SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SLEET MIXED IN FOR LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD. WITH THE SHORT TIME
FROM OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
FALLING AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERTAKES THE REGION WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ALONG THE NC LINE AND LOWER 30S IN THE CSRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO PUSHES MOISTURE NORTHWARD. COLD AIR
ADVECTION REMAINING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO AROUND 50 IN THE CSRA.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN MODERATELY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ONWARD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING
THE LOW CROSSING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GULF STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD REACHING
THE FL PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS CURRENTLY THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW RAPIDLY
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW MUCH SLOWER KEEPING IT
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE REMAINED CONSERVATIVE
AND MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN MODEL CHANGES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS
KEEPING CONFIDENCE LOW. MODELS AGREE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE 19Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME. MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS SREF
GUIDANCE MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE 23Z HRRR SHOWED AN IFR CEILING SPREADING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN. WE LEANED
TOWARD THE MAV AND MET MOS AND MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE OF THE INCONSISTENT HRRR GUIDANCE.
MIXING SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
LATEST KCAE 88D VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATED SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. THE NAM INDICATED SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND 14Z WHEN HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BECOME MORE
DOMINATE. LATER IN THE DAY...THE NAM AND GFS MOS DIFFERED WITH THE
NAM SHOWING IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS
MOS INDICATED LOW-END VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS. WE AVERAGED THIS
GUIDANCE AND FORECASTED MVFR CEILINGS. THE NAM MOS MAY BE TOO LOW
WITH ITS CEILING FORECAST BECAUSE CONSIDERABLE WIND SHOULD HELP
HOLD UP CEILINGS. THERE MAY ALSO BE RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
RAIN NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT BUT BELIEVE THIS RAIN WILL BE
MAINLY LIGHT WITH LIMITED EFFECT ON VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS
LAMP INDICATED GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE NAM MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. THE NAM AND GFS MOS AND THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND MIXING SUPPORT MORE CONSISTENT NORTH WINDS
AROUND 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
DURING THE REST OF MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
903 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
258 PM CST
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE FORECAST WAS ON THE DEGREE OF THE
COLD THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AT RECORD LEVELS IN SOME PLACES...AND
THEN SNOW CHANCES THIS FIRST WEEK OF METEOROLOGICAL "SPRING".
TONIGHT...
THE LOCAL AREA FINDS ITSELF SQUEEZED BETWEEN A VERY DEEP UPPER
LOW ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS PROGRESSING DUE EAST AND
CREATING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND ICE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS FEATURE ALSO
WILL CONTINUE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVE WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 15K FT. BUT ASIDE FROM THAT...THE CONFLUENCE
ALOFT OVER THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
TRANQUIL. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAVE
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY WITH LESS CONVERGENCE AND JUST DEEPER DRY
AIR ADVECTION. WHILE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED AT TIMES
TONIGHT AND EVEN MONDAY MORNING INTO FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA...ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY LIGHT.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE 1039MB HIGH REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ENOUGH OF A SPEED FOR
RARE MARCH WIND CHILL CONCERNS...BUT NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
FORTITUDE OF THIS COOL SEASON. THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD HELP TO OFFSET RAPID EVE COOLING...BUT A SLOW STEADY DROP
IS ANTICIPATED. OUTSIDE OF CHICAGO...LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS. SEE THE CLIMATE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE. THE WIND CHILLS FALL OUT AT -15 TO -25 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND THE NORTH AND FAR WEST SIDES OF THE CHICAGO METRO
WHICH IS WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY.
MONDAY...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE. IT
IS ALWAYS A BATTLE THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH COLD AIR OVER SNOW COVER
VERSUS THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE. GIVEN THE 925MB TEMPS OF -16C
FORECAST AND OVER SNOW COVER...CLIMATOLOGICALLY THIS WOULD FAVOR
FORECAST HIGH IN THE TEENS AND HAVE GONE THAT ROUTE. AGAIN SEE THE
CLIMATE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE RECORD LOW MAXS. CLOUDS LOOK TO
BE ON THE INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT AND THAT SHOULD KEEP MINS
UP FROM WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE ANOTHER NIGHT BELOW ZERO IN MANY
PLACES. IF CLOUDS DO COME IN SLOWER DURING THE EVE THAT COULD LEAD
TO A MORE RAPID DROP...BUT RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER IS
FAIRLY HIGH.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
THE UNSETTLED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS TO PREVAIL DURING
MIDWEEK. WITH THE QUICK PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE
SYSTEMS...NAMELY EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY...IT IS NOT SURPRISING TO SEE CONTINUED MODEL
SPREAD. BELIEVE THAT THE FIRST DISTURBANCE EARLY TUESDAY WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH GIVEN THE DRY RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS SOMEWHAT SOUTH IN ITS
WAKE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WED SYSTEM A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE TO IMPACT THE AREA. AGAIN THERE IS LITTLE
LOW-LEVEL INFLUENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND DEEP MOISTURE VALUES LOOK
LOW...SO ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD APPEAR MINOR IF IT WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...BUT SOMETHING THAT COULD HAVE IMPACTS DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING. MODEL SPREAD REALLY GETS LARGE BEYOND THAT AND SO HAVE
NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS. HAVE INCREASED THEM SOMEWHAT
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY. BESIDES THE FACT IT ALWAYS SNOWS
ON SATURDAY /PARTIALLY JOKING/...THE EC AND GEM BOTH HAVE A TIGHT
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SIMILAR TO THIS PAST
SATURDAY NIGHTS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH LIMITED DURATION
PERIODS OF RETURN FLOW. THERE DOES STILL APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW OF
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ON FRIDAY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS LOOKED
AT...WHICH WOULD BE THE RETURN FLOW PERIOD AHEAD OF A POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEKEND SYSTEM. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY MINIMAL IN MOST
FORECAST ELEMENTS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
MTF
&&
.CLIMATE...
258 PM CST
THE FOLLOWING RECORDS INDICATED BY AN (*) ARE FORECAST TO BE
BROKEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY:
MARCH 3RD RECORD LOW MARCH 3RD RECORD LOW MAX
CHICAGO: -6 (1873) 8 (1873)
ROCKFORD: -4 (2002)* 18 (2002)*
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH
TONIGHT.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN DIRECTION OF LIGHT WINDS MONDAY IN VICINITY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
COLD/DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST THROUGH MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND
GRADUALLY DECREASING NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE THE MAIN FEATURES
THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WIND FIELDS
MAINLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY FOR ORD/MDW WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT INTERACTS WITH LAKE MICHIGAN.
FOR TONIGHT...ONLY COMPLICATION IS WHERE WINDS HAD TURNED
NORTHEAST ACROSS KMDW THIS AFTERNOON. VARIOUS OBSERVATIONAL DATA
AND HIGH-RES MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD TREND
BACK MORE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT KMDW EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHER LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH CENTER BEGINS TO SPREAD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH GRADIENT WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY BY
MID-DAY. GUIDANCE VARIES WITH WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE SURFACE IN
THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...THOUGH INSPECTION OF
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS...AND SFC WIND FORECAST FROM
SOME OF THE HIGHER-RES ARW MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LIGHT NORTHEAST OR EAST WIND TO DEVELOP ACROSS ORD/MDW/GYY WHICH
IS NOT INDICATED BY LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST
TOWARD THIS...PARTICULARLY AT KMDW/KGYY WHERE IT APPEARS SOME FORM
OF FLOW OFF LAKE IS MORE PROBABLE. AT KORD...WENT VARIABLE WITH THE
WIND DIRECTION DURING THE MID-DAY/AFTERNOON HOURS. OUR VERY WINTER-
LIKE TEMPERATURE REGIME AND HEAVILY ICE-COVERED LAKE ARE NOT
TYPICAL CLASSIC LAKE BREEZE CONDITIONS...THOUGH OFTEN WINDS WILL
TURN OFF THE LAKE JUST FROM FRICTIONAL DIFFERENCES IN LAND/LAKE
SURFACES. WIND WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT SOUTH ALL LOCATIONS MONDAY
EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
AS WINDS IN 2000-3000 FT AGL LEVEL MONDAY DO LOOK LIKELY TO BE
FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH MIGHT SUPPORT SOME SCT CLOUDS OFF THE
LAKE ...ALTHOUGH THE COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE...A VERY DRY AIR
MASS AND UPSTREAM LAKE ICE COVER ALL ARGUE AGAINST ANY PERSISTENT
CEILING. OTHERWISE...ONLY VFR HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME
PATCHY MID (120-150 KFT) DEVELOPING MAINLY OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST LATER MONDAY.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS ESPECIALLY MID-MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON MONDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY AND A
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
129 PM CST
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE...AS A STOUT AND EXPANSIVE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE LAKE...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCAL WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED DIFFERENCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TONIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL ABATE ON MONDAY...LIKELY BECOMING UNDER 10 KT OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER
HEAD. SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENTS
ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011 UNTIL 9
AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020 UNTIL 9
AM MONDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
844 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 835 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
Storm system well to our south continues to make progress across
the Southern Plains this evening. A large shield of precipitation
extends northeast from the upper wave, which was located over the
Panhandle of Texas. On the northern periphery of the precipitation
there was mainly snow being reported over parts of south central
and southeast Illinois, with a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain
and snow over extreme southern Illinois into western Ky. The bulk
of the significant precip will be occurring tonight south of I70
as another sprawling Arctic air mass settles southeast into the
region through Monday. Will be cancelling the northern portion of
the Winter Storm warning over southeast Illinois and if precip trends
continue to suggest a southeast shift in the heavier bands of snow
and sleet, we may be able to cancel most if not all of the warning
over the far southeast later tonight.
Further to the northwest, the wind chill advisory looks fine at
this point, but satellite data showing quite a bit of cirrus well
off to our northwest, so that may have an affect on our early
morning lows. Forecast soundings off the RAP and the latest NAM-
WRF suggest the thicker cirrus shield will shift into parts of
southeast Illinois by morning, so will not make any changes to the
wind chill headlines for the overnight hours. After we make the
adjustment to the Winter Storm Warning over the southeast counties,
we will send out an updated ZFP.
Smith
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 515 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
A second wave of snow has passed just south of SPI and DEC taf
sites late this afternoon. Although a brief period of some very
light snow or flurries will be possible, the steadier snow will
remain south this evening. Otherwise, all sites will experience
VFR conditions for this forecast period (thru 00z Tue). Another
large Arctic high will gradually settle southeast into the Midwest
on Monday bringing unseasonably cold temps to the region. Gusty
northerly winds of 12 to 17 kts are expected tonight and then a
gradual decrease to 10 to 15 kts will occur by Monday afternoon.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
High pressure ridge axis over the center of the country trying to
push the current storm further out of the area, but the main
portion of the wave still in Arkansas. The sfc low, however, is
progged to move just south of the Ohio River Valley. The storm
will still produce plenty of precip issues, though most of
them, including the majority of the deformation zone enhancement,
will fall south of ILX this evening. Though much of the weather
has ended across the northern tier of the CWA, redeveloping snow
across the center of the state, and still plenty of
snow/sleet/fzra mix in the southeast is keeping some of the
headlines active this afternoon. Models now moving the precip out
of the area a little sooner, and as long as the low continues on
its forecast track SE of the forecast area, an early cancellation
is anticipated. Into the rest of the forecast, the models are just
fine with the overall pattern, but off with the timing of the next
couple waves. These systems are not big precip makers at this
point, and the forecast is mostly quiet.
SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow...
Winter storm wrapping up this evening, but still producing plenty
of precip for the southeast. Another 1 to 3 inches of snow
anticipated in the warning area, in addition to slowly
transitioning sleet to snow. FA should be dry by morning. IN the
meantime, temperatures dropping quickly behind the system in areas
to the NW where some clearing is anticipated. Negative single
digit temps North of the I-55 corridor and winds staying up in
7-15 kt range through the overnight resulting in wind chills from
-15 to -20 degrees. Wind Chill Advisory is out as a result for the
overnight hours and a very cold start to Monday. High pressure
ridge moving closer through the day, and winds will go light and
variable before switching back around to having a more southerly
component. Although tomorrow night will also be cold, it will
remain above zero, in the positive single digits.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
More cold air for the extended. Mon-Thursday still well below
freezing. Although Friday is showing signs of a warm up, but the
WAA looks a bit weak at this point. Suspicious that the MOS is
being pulled too much by guidance upwards, considering that it has
cooled off again with this synoptic run. Brief waves bringing
quick shot of precip possibly on Wed across the north, with only
slight chc pops north of I-74 corridor from GBG to PIA. ECMWF and
GFS still not in agreement with the next wave btwn Thursday and
Saturday night. GFS quicker and divided the energy out ahead of a
trof digging in over the desert SW. GFS sends two quick shots of
precip and ECMWF sends only one, along a developing baroclinic
zone, while splitting the flow at 500 mb. Another pattern shift,
and will likely see the models vary quite a bit as time
progresses.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ054>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 10 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>043-047>051.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1026 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
400 AM CST
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE INVOF
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROVIDING THE
DYNAMICS TO GENERATE A QUICK ROUND OF SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH
ONLY WEAK SFC TROUGHING AND VERY MODEST LOW LEVEL FORCING...THE SNOW
IS ALMOST ENTIRELY RELYING ON UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT THE
SNOW GENERATION. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE BAND OF SNOW
EXTENDS FROM WAUKEGAN TO PERU AND IS MOVING VERY QUICKLY TO THE
EAST. THE SNOW WILL END SHORTLY IN THE ROCKFORD AREA AND WILL
QUICKLY PUSH PAST THE CHICAGO METRO AREA SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...AND EVEN ENDING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY LATE THIS MORNING. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SO QUICKLY...ONLY
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THE MAIN SNOW CONCERN IS SETTING UP FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN 2
SEGMENTS...BEGINNING EARLIER FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS AND
KANKAKEE RIVERS...AND THEN SPREADING SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED INTO
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LARGER SCALE DETAILS WITH THE
SYSTEM EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ON SHORE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET UP A STREAM OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT AS
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST. A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY...WITH TROUGHING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SQUEEZE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...SETTING UP VERY FAST FLOW ALOFT RIPPLES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH A DIRECT
TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SURFACE...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF CANADA AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD FRIDAY...THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BACK TO THE REGION
AT THE SFC. THE SNOW WILL AGAIN LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...WITH THE BAND OF STRONGEST FORCING SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA. CURRENTLY...ANTICIPATE THAT THE SNOW WILL BEGIN
OVER THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD METRO
AREA BY AROUND 3PM THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST...WITH HEAVIER SNOW REACHING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA DURG THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
HUDSON BAY BACK TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...THE
AREA OF SNOW WILL BE QUICKLY FORCED SOUTH...WITH SNOW ENDING OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL EJECT
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING AND TRACK ACROSS THE
PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
PUSH QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THE
CANADIAN TROUGH WILL FORCE AN END TO THE SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL KEEP THE SNOW POTENTIAL GOING OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL TOTAL...EXPECT AROUND 3 TO 5
INCHES ACCUMULATION OF RELATIVELY DRIER SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND 5 TO 7 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...THOUGH THE SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MAY LIKELY
CONTAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER LIQUID WATER CONTENT DUE TO THE LONGER
DURATION OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION.
AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW TAPERS OFF OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
LARGER SCALE MODELS...IN PARTICULAR...THE GFS...HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE EFFECT BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SHORTER RANGE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A SIMILAR SETUP WITH SFC CONVERGENCE SETTING
UP OVER WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS COULD BRING PERIODS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR NERN IL...AND EVENTUALLY FAR NWRN INDIANA
AS THE LAKE PLUME MIGRATES EWD INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND RELATIVELY COLD SFC WATER
TEMPERATURES...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONLY AROUND 5-6KFT AND CAPE VALUES OF 300-400
J/KG. THE MODEST CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST
THAT SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS NOT LIKELY...BUT PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE CHICAGO METRO AREA ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A FEW MORE DAYS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO. BRISK NORTH WINDS SHOULD DRIVE WIND CHILL READING TO AROUND 5
TO 15 BELOW ZERO FOR SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SETTLES OVER IOWA BY MONDAY MORNING...COLD ADVECTION WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA GENERALLY WEST OF
THE I-57 CORRIDOR AND THE FOX VALLEY...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD DIP
TO AROUND 5 BELOW ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS TO 20 BELOW ZERO. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY MORNING...SO
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW ZERO DUE TO RADIATIVE COOLING.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL
WITH HIGHS STILL ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S...BUT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOST
WELL TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY...SETTING UP A WARM ADVECTIVE
PATTERN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY
AND COULD EVEN PEG 40F BY FRIDAY. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
COULD BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS LIKELY.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* NORTH WINDS LATE THIS MORNING WITH LINGERING POCKETS OF MVFR
CIGS. EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR BEFORE SNOW ARRIVES.
* SNOW ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON. MOVED UP START TIME BY AN HOUR AND
LOWERED INITIAL VSBYS TO MVFR. ALSO MOVED UP START TIME OF
HEAVIER SNOW. IFR LIKELY AND LIFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO EXIT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF IFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND
BUT SHOULD BE PROGRESSING EAST AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. VARIABLE MVFR/VFR CIGS EXTEND BACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OR SO WITH STEADIER VFR TO THE WEST. WINDS HAVE OR WILL BE
TURNING NORTHERLY SHORTLY AND EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN NW AND NNE THROUGH THE DAY.
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT ROUND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WHICH
WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOW SHOULD
QUICKLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT RFD AND RIGHT
AROUND 00Z IN THE CHICAGO AREA...THOUGH LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP
JUST PRIOR TO THAT. TIMING MAY STILL NEED SOME TWEAKING BUT HAVE
GOOD CONFIDENCE OVERALL. PERIOD OF MODERATE TO EVEN BRIEFLY HEAVY
SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING AT RFD
AND PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING IN THE CHICAGO AREA. PREVAILING
VSBY OF 1 TO 1.5SM IS LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF 1/2 TO 3/4SM VSBY
POSSIBLE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF 1/4SM AS
WELL. ACCUMULATION RATES OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE ALSO LIKELY
AT TIMES. THE MAIN FORCING FOR THE SNOW WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SNOW INTENSITY TO TAPER
OFF AT THE TERMINALS...THOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES WILL THEN TRY TO TAKE OVER WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINING THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY DETAILS. WITH A SLIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
DRIFT TOWARD OR OVER ORD/MDW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR THEN PERIODIC BURSTS OF MORE INTENSE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH GREATLY REDUCED VSBY. GYY IS PROBABLY THE MOST FAVORED FOR
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY GIVEN THE PRIMARILY NORTH WIND BU OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE LATEST
THINKING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF SNOW AND CIG/VSBY TRENDS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF IFR PERIODS THIS EVENING.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODIC LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
302 AM CST
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN QUEBEC INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS
TRAILING THIS LOW AND IS PUSHING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING BRINGING A SHIFT TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING
THEN EASE UP A BIT THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME CONVERGENCE LIKELY SETTING UP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE AS LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES
TAKE OVER. AS THIS OCCURS AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ALBERTA AND
ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
RE-ORIENT SOMEWHAT AND POSITION ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS AND MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER SUNDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD MONDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF AND BECOME VARIABLE. AS
THE HIGH PASSES WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR MID WEEK
BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEK.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022...3 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...9 PM
SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...9
PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1013 AM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1011 AM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
Cold front has reached the I-70 corridor as of 10 am, and will
continue to move through the southeast CWA into early afternoon.
High temperatures further northwest have already occurred, and
falling temperatures will be the trend through the afternoon as
Arctic air upstream pushes southeastward. Large area of light
snow has set up over the north half of Iowa and will be tracking
eastward much of the day, before taking a southeast nudge later
this afternoon. Have adjusted PoP`s for the afternoon to focus
them on the 3-6 pm time frame as a result. Other adjustments to
hourly temperature trends have been sent.
Will hold onto the Winter Storm Watch until all of the 12Z model
guidance has arrived, before making the decision on how to convert
it.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 510 AM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
IFR CIGs behind cold front beginning to work into central Illinois
from the northwest. KGBG has dropped to OVC007 and large area of
CIGs between 007 and 012 extends approximately 100 nm behind the
cold front. Although diurnal influence may raise the CIGs slightly
as they work southeast, latest HRRR suggest the band will hold
together much of the day. Have translated the IFR/MVFR clouds into
the terminals this morning as front pushes through. So far only
minor reductions in VSBYs and will leave as P6SM for now.
Jet streak induced broad area of snow is expected to develop
across the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon and advect
southward into the terminals this evening. Will likely be
occasional VSBYs lower, will currently broad brush with 2 nm. As
the area develops later packages can hone the details on exactly
when LIFR VSBYs might occur.
Barker
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 328 AM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday
At 08Z/2AM Arctic cold front was just entering the NW CWA
accompanied by a narrow band of light snow, which has briefly
dropped vsbys to 3-5 miles. Latest trends and short range models
indicate what snow there is will dissipate as the front continues
to shift southeast this morning. Did include low chance pops this
afternoon across the northern third where models show weak omega
behind front off weak dpva.
As the Arctic front shifts south towards the Ohio Valley this
evening, a strong 140+ kt 300mb jet sets up over the Great Lakes.
This in conjunction with a tightening mid-level baroclinic zone to
our south sets up good moisture transport into a region of strong
frontogenesis over Iowa and northern IL. As this zone gradually
shifts south this evening, expect snow to increase in coverage and
intensity. Given the strength of projected frontogenesis and a
hint of negative EPV above this zone would expect some banding and
enhance snowfall rates overnight. 00Z guidance has trended more
progressive the the band of stronger forcing, shifting this south
of I-72 Sunday morning. This seems reasonable given the fact this
is an open wave at 850/700 mb. Snow will likely continue over the
southern half Sunday afternoon, and into Sunday night far SE, as
additional shortwave energy ejects from southern plains trough.
Thermal profiles off consistent GFS/ECMWF show snow for much of
the CWA, except south of I-70 where a sleet/freezing rain mix is
possible for several hours after onset. Have discounted aggressive
warmer NAM thermal structure (which would bring mixed precip north
of I-72) due to open wave feature. This does lead to lower overall
confidence in p-type than would be desired at 24 hrs. Given
precipitable water values 0.6-0.9 and projected forcing, model qpf
raning from 0.3 NW to 0.75 SE looks reasonable. Used 12:1
snow:liquid ratio, except 10:1 south of I-70 due to thermal
profiles. For the northwest half of the CWA projected totals of 4-6"
in 18+ hours fall short of warning criteria (6"+ in 12 hours or
8"+ in 24 hours) and have issued winter wx advisory for 6 PM
tonight through 6 PM Sunday. For areas southeast of a Shebyville
to Monticello to Rantoul line, 5-8" forecast over a 24+ hour period
also falls short of warning criteria. The potential for mixed
precip does complicate things, as warning sleet/ice accums would
be possible under NAM solution. With uncertainty remaining in
this area will keep winter storm watch going (midnight tonight
through 6 AM Monday morning), and let day shift make the call
after looking over 12Z data.
LONG TERM...Monday through Friday
Bitterly cold air moves into the region behind the departing
storm. Late season Arctic high pressure will produce temps 20-25
degrees below normal, with lows likely dropping below zero across
the north Monday and Tuesday mornings. A weak shortwave dropping
through in northwest flow behind the high, will bring a chance of
light snow to the northern half of the CWA Tuesday. With low
moisture availability have kept pops to slight chance. While temps
will remain below normal through the week, readings will gradually
moderate as mid level flow flattens. Dry weather is expected as
split flow keeps major systems well to our north and south.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH from late tonight through late Sunday night
FOR ILZ044>046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Sunday FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
553 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
400 AM CST
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE INVOF
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROVIDING THE
DYNAMICS TO GENERATE A QUICK ROUND OF SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH
ONLY WEAK SFC TROUGHING AND VERY MODEST LOW LEVEL FORCING...THE SNOW
IS ALMOST ENTIRELY RELYING ON UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT THE
SNOW GENERATION. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE BAND OF SNOW
EXTENDS FROM WAUKEGAN TO PERU AND IS MOVING VERY QUICKLY TO THE
EAST. THE SNOW WILL END SHORTLY IN THE ROCKFORD AREA AND WILL
QUICKLY PUSH PAST THE CHICAGO METRO AREA SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...AND EVEN ENDING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BY LATE THIS MORNING. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SO QUICKLY...ONLY
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THE MAIN SNOW CONCERN IS SETTING UP FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN 2
SEGMENTS...BEGINNING EARLIER FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS AND
KANKAKEE RIVERS...AND THEN SPREADING SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN IS A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED INTO
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LARGER SCALE DETAILS WITH THE
SYSTEM EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ON SHORE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET UP A STREAM OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT AS
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST. A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY...WITH TROUGHING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SQUEEZE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...SETTING UP VERY FAST FLOW ALOFT RIPPLES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH A DIRECT
TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SURFACE...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF CANADA AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD FRIDAY...THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BACK TO THE REGION
AT THE SFC. THE SNOW WILL AGAIN LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...WITH THE BAND OF STRONGEST FORCING SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CWA. CURRENTLY...ANTICIPATE THAT THE SNOW WILL BEGIN
OVER THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD METRO
AREA BY AROUND 3PM THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST...WITH HEAVIER SNOW REACHING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA DURG THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
HUDSON BAY BACK TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...THE
AREA OF SNOW WILL BE QUICKLY FORCED SOUTH...WITH SNOW ENDING OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL EJECT
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING AND TRACK ACROSS THE
PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
PUSH QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THE
CANADIAN TROUGH WILL FORCE AN END TO THE SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL KEEP THE SNOW POTENTIAL GOING OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL TOTAL...EXPECT AROUND 3 TO 5
INCHES ACCUMULATION OF RELATIVELY DRIER SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND 5 TO 7 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...THOUGH THE SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MAY LIKELY
CONTAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER LIQUID WATER CONTENT DUE TO THE LONGER
DURATION OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION.
AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW TAPERS OFF OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
LARGER SCALE MODELS...IN PARTICULAR...THE GFS...HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE EFFECT BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SHORTER RANGE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A SIMILAR SETUP WITH SFC CONVERGENCE SETTING
UP OVER WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS COULD BRING PERIODS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR NERN IL...AND EVENTUALLY FAR NWRN INDIANA
AS THE LAKE PLUME MIGRATES EWD INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND RELATIVELY COLD SFC WATER
TEMPERATURES...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONLY AROUND 5-6KFT AND CAPE VALUES OF 300-400
J/KG. THE MODEST CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST
THAT SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS NOT LIKELY...BUT PERIODS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE CHICAGO METRO AREA ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
AS THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE REGION CAN EXPECT A FEW MORE DAYS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO. BRISK NORTH WINDS SHOULD DRIVE WIND CHILL READING TO AROUND 5
TO 15 BELOW ZERO FOR SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SETTLES OVER IOWA BY MONDAY MORNING...COLD ADVECTION WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA GENERALLY WEST OF
THE I-57 CORRIDOR AND THE FOX VALLEY...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD DIP
TO AROUND 5 BELOW ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS TO 20 BELOW ZERO. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY MORNING...SO
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW ZERO DUE TO RADIATIVE COOLING.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL
WITH HIGHS STILL ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S...BUT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOST
WELL TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY...SETTING UP A WARM ADVECTIVE
PATTERN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY
AND COULD EVEN PEG 40F BY FRIDAY. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
COULD BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS LIKELY.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* IFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VARIABLE MVFR/VFR NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
* MORE SNOW ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODIC
MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE EVENING. SUB
1SM VSBY LIKELY AT TIMES WITH 1/4-1/2SM VSBY POSSIBLE.
* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
* NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO EXIT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF IFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND
BUT SHOULD BE PROGRESSING EAST AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. VARIABLE MVFR/VFR CIGS EXTEND BACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OR SO WITH STEADIER VFR TO THE WEST. WINDS HAVE OR WILL BE
TURNING NORTHERLY SHORTLY AND EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN NW AND NNE THROUGH THE DAY.
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT ROUND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WHICH
WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOW SHOULD
QUICKLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT RFD AND RIGHT
AROUND 00Z IN THE CHICAGO AREA...THOUGH LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP
JUST PRIOR TO THAT. TIMING MAY STILL NEED SOME TWEAKING BUT HAVE
GOOD CONFIDENCE OVERALL. PERIOD OF MODERATE TO EVEN BRIEFLY HEAVY
SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING AT RFD
AND PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING IN THE CHICAGO AREA. PREVAILING
VSBY OF 1 TO 1.5SM IS LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF 1/2 TO 3/4SM VSBY
POSSIBLE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF 1/4SM AS
WELL. ACCUMULATION RATES OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE ALSO LIKELY
AT TIMES. THE MAIN FORCING FOR THE SNOW WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SNOW INTENSITY TO TAPER
OFF AT THE TERMINALS...THOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES WILL THEN TRY TO TAKE OVER WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINING THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY DETAILS. WITH A SLIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
DRIFT TOWARD OR OVER ORD/MDW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR THEN PERIODIC BURSTS OF MORE INTENSE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH GREATLY REDUCED VSBY. GYY IS PROBABLY THE MOST FAVORED FOR
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY GIVEN THE PRIMARILY NORTH WIND BU OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE LATEST
THINKING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VARIABLE
MVFR/VFR...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG
TRENDS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ARRIVING LATER TODAY...WITH MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER 1/2SM OR
LESS VSBY OCCURS...BUT MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WOULD BE
DURING THE EVENING IF IT DID.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER DETAILS SUNDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODIC LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
302 AM CST
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN QUEBEC INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS
TRAILING THIS LOW AND IS PUSHING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING BRINGING A SHIFT TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING
THEN EASE UP A BIT THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME CONVERGENCE LIKELY SETTING UP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE AS LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES
TAKE OVER. AS THIS OCCURS AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ALBERTA AND
ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
RE-ORIENT SOMEWHAT AND POSITION ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS AND MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER SUNDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD MONDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF AND BECOME VARIABLE. AS
THE HIGH PASSES WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR MID WEEK
BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEK.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022...3 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...9 PM
SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...9
PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
510 AM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 328 AM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday
At 08Z/2AM Arctic cold front was just entering the NW CWA
accompanied by a narrow band of light snow, which has briefly
dropped vsbys to 3-5 miles. Latest trends and short range models
indicate what snow there is will dissipate as the front continues
to shift southeast this morning. Did include low chance pops this
afternoon across the northern third where models show weak omega
behind front off weak dpva.
As the Arctic front shifts south towards the Ohio Valley this
evening, a strong 140+ kt 300mb jet sets up over the Great Lakes.
This in conjunction with a tightening mid-level baroclinic zone to
our south sets up good moisture transport into a region of strong
frontogenesis over Iowa and northern IL. As this zone gradually
shifts south this evening, expect snow to increase in coverage and
intensity. Given the strength of projected frontogenesis and a
hint of negative EPV above this zone would expect some banding and
enhance snowfall rates overnight. 00Z guidance has trended more
progressive the the band of stronger forcing, shifting this south
of I-72 Sunday morning. This seems reasonable given the fact this is an
open wave at 850/700 mb. Snow will likely continue over the
southern half Sunday afternoon, and into Sunday night far SE, as additional
shortwave energy ejects from southern plains trough.
Thermal profiles off consistent GFS/ECMWF show snow for much of
the CWA, except south of I-70 where a sleet/freezing rain mix is
possible for several hours after onset. Have discounted aggressive
warmer NAM thermal structure (which would bring mixed precip north
of I-72) due to open wave feature. This does lead to lower overall
confidence in p-type than would be desired at 24 hrs. Given
precipitable water values 0.6-0.9 and projected forcing, model qpf
raning from 0.3 NW to 0.75 SE looks reasonable. Used 12:1
snow:liquid ratio, except 10:1 south of I-70 due to thermal
profiles. For the northwest half of the CWA projected totals of 4-6"
in 18+ hours fall short of warning criteria (6"+ in 12 hours or
8"+ in 24 hours) and have issued winter wx advisory for 6 PM
tonight through 6 PM Sunday. For areas southeast of a Shebyville
to Monticello to Rantoul line, 5-8" forecast over a 24+ hour period
also falls short of warning criteria. The potential for mixed
precip does complicate things, as warning sleet/ice accums would
be possible under NAM solution. With uncertaininty remaning in
this area will keep winter storm watch going (midnight tonight
through 6 AM Monday morning), and let day shift make the call
after looking over 12Z data.
LONG TERM...Monday through Friday
Bitterly cold air moves into the region behind the departing
storm. Late season Arctic high pressure will produce temps 20-25
degrees below normal, with lows likely dropping below zero across
the north Monday and Tuesday mornings. A weak shortwave dropping
through in northwest flow behind the high, will bring a chance of
light snow to the northern half of the CWA Tuesday. With low
moisture availablity have kept pops to slight chance. While temps
will remain below normal through the week, readings will gradually
moderate as mid level flow flattens. Dry weather is expected as
split flow keeps major systems well to our north and south.
25
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 510 AM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
IFR CIGs behind cold front beginning to work into central Illinois
from the northwest. KGBG has dropped to OVC007 and large area of
CIGs between 007 and 012 extends approximately 100 nm behind the
cold front. Although diurnal influence may raise the CIGs slightly
as they work southeast, latest HRRR suggest the band will hold
together much of the day. Have translated the IFR/MVFR clouds into
the terminals this morning as front pushes through. So far only
minor reductions in VSBYs and will leave as P6SM for now.
Jet streak induced broad area of snow is expected to develop
across the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon and advect
southward into the terminals this evening. Will likely be
occasional VSBYs lower, will currently broadbrush with 2 nm. As
the area develops later packages can hone the details on exactly
when LIFR VSBYs might occur.
Barker
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH from late tonight through late Sunday night
FOR ILZ044>046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Sunday FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
102 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS...AMONG VERY MANY...WILL BE PHASE OF
PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNT OF ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION INTO TOMORROW
SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/COMPLEX AND EVEN
RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CANADA. HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE RESIDES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH BROAD AND
COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER CANADA. WEAKENING/FILLING SYSTEM IS MOVING
TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF IT. A SIGNIFICANT LOBE ROTATING
AROUND THE CANADIAN TROUGH IS PUSHING SOUTH.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED POORLY WITH JET SEGMENT IN
ADVANCE OF SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE UKMET AND NAM WERE
DOING THE BEST BUT WERE STILL OFF. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS...ECMWF
...CANADIAN AND SREF WERE DOING ABOUT THE SAME AND THE BEST OF THE
AVAILABLE OUTPUT. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE UKMET...GFS...NAM
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE NOT PRODUCING A LOT OF QPF...THEY ARE TENDING
TO OVERDO IT WITH THE GFS...NAM...AND SREF THE WORST.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO POOR
INITIAL ANALYSIS ON MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES...AND MODELS CHANGING
FROM THEIR SOLUTIONS...SOMETIMES DRAMATICALLY...FROM 24 HOURS AGO.
SAYING ALL THAT...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DOES STILL LOOK ON
TRACK DUE TO THE VARIABLE PHASES...VARIABLE ICE AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
IN GENERAL DID INCREASE ICE AMOUNTS...STILL BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH...DUE TO A LONGER TIME FOR ICE ACCUMULATION...AND LOWERED
SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY DUE TO NOT VERY MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION UNTIL
TONIGHT.
TODAY/TONIGHT...JET SETUP BY THE END OF THE DAY IS DIFFERENT THAN
WHAT WAS DEPICTED YESTERDAY. BY LATE IN THE DAY THE MAIN JET
SEGMENT IS STILL TO THE WEST OF MY AREA WITH THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OVER THE AREA. SO AT FIRST GLANCE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A LOT TO DRIVE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT DUE TO ANY STRONG
FEATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS DO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
QPF. THE LIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THIS DOME OF COLD AIR.
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO START THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME
PRECIPITATION. SO BELIEVE WILL HAVE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AROUND FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. SO QUESTION BECOMES PHASE. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
EITHER A DRY AIR MASS OR ONLY A SATURATED SHALLOW AIR MASS AND
THAT WAS EVIDENT IN SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH I WILL ADD. GFS HAS
CHANGED ITS TUNE FROM YESTERDAY. IT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN
SATURATING THE COLUMN TO A DEEPER DEPTH. THE NAM ALSO CHANGED ITS
TUNE AND SATURATED TO GREATER DEPTH...AT LEAST IN THE BEGINNING...IN
A SIMILAR FASHION AS THE GFS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY DRIER ALOFT THAN
THE NAM.
WARM LAYER APPEARS IN ALL AREAS OR ALMOST ALL AREAS AT THE BEGINNING
WITH THE GFS SHOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. NORTHERN AREAS
SHOULD SEE ALL SNOW ONLY BECAUSE THE DENDRITIC ZONE IS AT THE
SURFACE. FOR A FEW COUNTIES SOUTH AND WEST OF THAT A MIXTURE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE...SNOW AND SLEET IS INDICATED WITH THE FAR SOUTH
AND WEST INDICATING SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS AREA WORKS ITS
WAY SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY. ALL IN ALL THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD THE POP AND PHASE LAYOUT IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WITH NOT VERY STRONG LIFT...DID REDUCE THE
ALREADY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL IN PLACE. GFS CONTINUES TO NOT HAVE A DEEP OF
A SATURATED LAYER AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THE DENDRITIC ZONE REMAINS
NEAR OR AT THE SURFACE. WHAT IS ALSO DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY IS
THAT THE GFS IS DOING WHAT THE NAM WAS DOING YESTERDAY WHICH IS
KEEPING A MIXTURE IN PLACE FOR MUCH LONGER. IF SOUNDINGS ARE
CORRECT THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST MAY NOT DO A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AM CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING PRECIPITATION/SNOW
AMOUNTS DUE TO THE STRONG LIFT FROM THE JET/UPPER DEFORMATION MOVING
ACROSS. BY MIDNIGHT THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST HALF AND THAT IS WHERE WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH AMOUNTS
CAREFULLY.
FOR MAXES...MODEL GUIDANCE IS WARMER AND THAT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DUE TO THE MODELS NOT COOLING OFF TEMPERATURES AS MUCH FOR THIS
MORNING. MAXES MAY BE EARLY. USED A COMBINATION OF HRRR AND MAV TO
ADJUST THE MAXES. KEPT MINS WARMER AND ABOVE THE COLDEST GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE WINDS. CONSEQUENTLY THE WIND CHILL
READINGS ARE NOT AS LOW AS PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH MARGINAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFERING ON THE SPEED/POSITION A
LITTLE BUT IN GENERAL THEY SHOW THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT AFFECTING
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. THIS IS
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. IT IS ALSO BY THIS TIME THAT
DOWNGLIDE IS OCCURRING ON 290 SURFACE. PRECIPITATION BE HIGHEST IN
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE JET AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SO KEPT HIGHER POPS THERE AND LOWERED THEM OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH FLURRIES
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING. BASED ON SATURATED LOW LEVELS DID TOSS
IN SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CLOUDS...UPSLOPE WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE DAY. NOT SURE WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS WARMING UP MAXES SO
MUCH. KEPT THE MAXES NEAR THE COLDER SIDE AND NEAR THE BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE. MINS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT
WHICH AGAIN MEANS WIND CHILL READINGS NOT GETTING AS COLD. AGAIN
REACHING MARGINAL ADVISORY VALUES.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND AFFECTS THE AREA AT
LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE A DEEP DRY LAYER SO ONLY
CLOUDS WILL RESULT. SO THIS PERIOD WILL JUST END UP BEING A
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS AND WHERE...
THAT COULD CAUSE IN THE TEMPERATURE LAYOUT I HAVE IN THERE. MODELS
ARE BRINGING IN WARMER AIR FURTHER EAST AND FOR THE MOST PART I
BELIEVE THEY ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS A BETTER
DEPICTION OF THE SURFACE...DO LIKE ITS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BETTER. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO HOLD TO COLD
TEMPERATURES TOO LONG IN THIS PATTERN WHICH BECOMES STRONG ZONAL.
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS IN ERNEST DURING THE NIGHT AND
MAY END UP HAVING WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
RIDGING WILL GENERALLY BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE MID TO
LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL TO
START BUT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT AND FROM TUESDAY AND
BEYOND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COMING OVER THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH MAIN ENERGY GOING SOUTH. FORECAST
POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. A
SUFFICIENT WARM LAYER WILL EXIST TO MELT ANY ICE...SO
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED BY SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF -RA/-FZRA WITH LOW CONFIDENCE EITHER WILL PAN OUT. THAT
SCENARIO CARRIES OVER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF
RAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL KEEP IT DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS BETTER IN
DENDRITIC LAYER BUT SURFACE WILL BE WARM TO START. COLDER AIR
ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONT. GIVEN THERE WILL BE ICE
IN THE COLUMN BUT UNCERTAINTY ON EXTENT OF SURFACE BASED WARM
LAYER WILL CARRY RAIN/SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING AT
KGLD AND KMCK. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY
BUT LIGHT SNOW IS CAUSING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR.
EARLIER THIS MORNING KGLD DROPPED BRIEFLY TO LIFR DUE TO 3/4 SM
VISIBILITY BUT SNOW INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH
THAT VISIBILITY REMAINS IN THE IFR CATEGORY. IF A PERIOD OF GREATER
SNOW INTENSITIES AT EITHER TERMINAL WERE TO OCCUR CAUSING A
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO LIFR...IT WOULD LIKELY BE DURING THE
EVENING WHEN SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SLIGHTLY STRONGER
FRONTOGENESIS/LIFT MAY BE PRESENT. OTHERWISE EXPECT FLUCTUATIONS
IN VISIBILITY TO CONTINUE FROM AROUND 1 SM TO AROUND 3 SM. TOWARD
TOMORROW MORNING...MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOWER AND SNOW INTENSITIES
SHOULD DECREASE SUFFICIENTLY FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW BUT
ICE ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN VERY MINOR TO NON-EXISTENT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1103 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS...AMONG VERY MANY...WILL BE PHASE OF
PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNT OF ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION INTO TOMORROW
SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/COMPLEX AND EVEN
RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CANADA. HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE RESIDES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH BROAD AND
COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER CANADA. WEAKENING/FILLING SYSTEM IS MOVING
TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF IT. A SIGNIFICANT LOBE ROTATING
AROUND THE CANADIAN TROUGH IS PUSHING SOUTH.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED POORLY WITH JET SEGMENT IN
ADVANCE OF SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE UKMET AND NAM WERE
DOING THE BEST BUT WERE STILL OFF. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS...ECMWF
...CANADIAN AND SREF WERE DOING ABOUT THE SAME AND THE BEST OF THE
AVAILABLE OUTPUT. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE UKMET...GFS...NAM
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE NOT PRODUCING A LOT OF QPF...THEY ARE TENDING
TO OVERDO IT WITH THE GFS...NAM...AND SREF THE WORST.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO POOR
INITIAL ANALYSIS ON MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES...AND MODELS CHANGING
FROM THEIR SOLUTIONS...SOMETIMES DRAMATICALLY...FROM 24 HOURS AGO.
SAYING ALL THAT...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DOES STILL LOOK ON
TRACK DUE TO THE VARIABLE PHASES...VARIABLE ICE AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
IN GENERAL DID INCREASE ICE AMOUNTS...STILL BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH...DUE TO A LONGER TIME FOR ICE ACCUMULATION...AND LOWERED
SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY DUE TO NOT VERY MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION UNTIL
TONIGHT.
TODAY/TONIGHT...JET SETUP BY THE END OF THE DAY IS DIFFERENT THAN
WHAT WAS DEPICTED YESTERDAY. BY LATE IN THE DAY THE MAIN JET
SEGMENT IS STILL TO THE WEST OF MY AREA WITH THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OVER THE AREA. SO AT FIRST GLANCE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A LOT TO DRIVE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT DUE TO ANY STRONG
FEATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS DO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
QPF. THE LIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THIS DOME OF COLD AIR.
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO START THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME
PRECIPITATION. SO BELIEVE WILL HAVE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AROUND FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. SO QUESTION BECOMES PHASE. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
EITHER A DRY AIR MASS OR ONLY A SATURATED SHALLOW AIR MASS AND
THAT WAS EVIDENT IN SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH I WILL ADD. GFS HAS
CHANGED ITS TUNE FROM YESTERDAY. IT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN
SATURATING THE COLUMN TO A DEEPER DEPTH. THE NAM ALSO CHANGED ITS
TUNE AND SATURATED TO GREATER DEPTH...AT LEAST IN THE BEGINNING...IN
A SIMILAR FASHION AS THE GFS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY DRIER ALOFT THAN
THE NAM.
WARM LAYER APPEARS IN ALL AREAS OR ALMOST ALL AREAS AT THE BEGINNING
WITH THE GFS SHOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. NORTHERN AREAS
SHOULD SEE ALL SNOW ONLY BECAUSE THE DENDRITIC ZONE IS AT THE
SURFACE. FOR A FEW COUNTIES SOUTH AND WEST OF THAT A MIXTURE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE...SNOW AND SLEET IS INDICATED WITH THE FAR SOUTH
AND WEST INDICATING SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS AREA WORKS ITS
WAY SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY. ALL IN ALL THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD THE POP AND PHASE LAYOUT IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WITH NOT VERY STRONG LIFT...DID REDUCE THE
ALREADY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL IN PLACE. GFS CONTINUES TO NOT HAVE A DEEP OF
A SATURATED LAYER AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THE DENDRITIC ZONE REMAINS
NEAR OR AT THE SURFACE. WHAT IS ALSO DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY IS
THAT THE GFS IS DOING WHAT THE NAM WAS DOING YESTERDAY WHICH IS
KEEPING A MIXTURE IN PLACE FOR MUCH LONGER. IF SOUNDINGS ARE
CORRECT THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST MAY NOT DO A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AM CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING PRECIPITATION/SNOW
AMOUNTS DUE TO THE STRONG LIFT FROM THE JET/UPPER DEFORMATION MOVING
ACROSS. BY MIDNIGHT THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST HALF AND THAT IS WHERE WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH AMOUNTS
CAREFULLY.
FOR MAXES...MODEL GUIDANCE IS WARMER AND THAT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DUE TO THE MODELS NOT COOLING OFF TEMPERATURES AS MUCH FOR THIS
MORNING. MAXES MAY BE EARLY. USED A COMBINATION OF HRRR AND MAV TO
ADJUST THE MAXES. KEPT MINS WARMER AND ABOVE THE COLDEST GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE WINDS. CONSEQUENTLY THE WIND CHILL
READINGS ARE NOT AS LOW AS PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH MARGINAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFERING ON THE SPEED/POSITION A
LITTLE BUT IN GENERAL THEY SHOW THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT AFFECTING
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. THIS IS
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. IT IS ALSO BY THIS TIME THAT
DOWNGLIDE IS OCCURRING ON 290 SURFACE. PRECIPITATION BE HIGHEST IN
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE JET AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SO KEPT HIGHER POPS THERE AND LOWERED THEM OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH FLURRIES
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING. BASED ON SATURATED LOW LEVELS DID TOSS
IN SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CLOUDS...UPSLOPE WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE DAY. NOT SURE WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS WARMING UP MAXES SO
MUCH. KEPT THE MAXES NEAR THE COLDER SIDE AND NEAR THE BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE. MINS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT
WHICH AGAIN MEANS WIND CHILL READINGS NOT GETTING AS COLD. AGAIN
REACHING MARGINAL ADVISORY VALUES.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND AFFECTS THE AREA AT
LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE A DEEP DRY LAYER SO ONLY
CLOUDS WILL RESULT. SO THIS PERIOD WILL JUST END UP BEING A
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS AND WHERE...
THAT COULD CAUSE IN THE TEMPERATURE LAYOUT I HAVE IN THERE. MODELS
ARE BRINGING IN WARMER AIR FURTHER EAST AND FOR THE MOST PART I
BELIEVE THEY ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS A BETTER
DEPICTION OF THE SURFACE...DO LIKE ITS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BETTER. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO HOLD TO COLD
TEMPERATURES TOO LONG IN THIS PATTERN WHICH BECOMES STRONG ZONAL.
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS IN ERNEST DURING THE NIGHT AND
MAY END UP HAVING WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THIS PERIOD AS THE
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT
FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THURSDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S. FRIDAY ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...REMAINING OVER THE AREA UNTIL
SATURDAY. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING AT
KGLD AND KMCK. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY
BUT LIGHT SNOW IS CAUSING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR.
EARLIER THIS MORNING KGLD DROPPED BRIEFLY TO LIFR DUE TO 3/4 SM
VISIBILITY BUT SNOW INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH
THAT VISIBILITY REMAINS IN THE IFR CATEGORY. IF A PERIOD OF GREATER
SNOW INTENSITIES AT EITHER TERMINAL WERE TO OCCUR CAUSING A
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO LIFR...IT WOULD LIKELY BE DURING THE
EVENING WHEN SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SLIGHTLY STRONGER
FRONTOGENESIS/LIFT MAY BE PRESENT. OTHERWISE EXPECT FLUCTIATIONS
IN VISIBILITY TO CONTINUE FROM AROUND 1 SM TO AROUND 3 SM. TOWARD
TOMORROW MORNING...MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOWER AND SNOW INTENSITIES
SHOULD DECREASE SUFFICIENTLY FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW BUT
ICE ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN VERY MINOR TO NON-EXISTIENT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
518 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS...AMONG VERY MANY...WILL BE PHASE OF
PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNT OF ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION INTO TOMORROW
SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/COMPLEX AND EVEN
RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CANADA. HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE RESIDES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH BROAD AND
COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER CANADA. WEAKENING/FILLING SYSTEM IS MOVING
TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF IT. A SIGNIFICANT LOBE ROTATING
AROUND THE CANADIAN TROUGH IS PUSHING SOUTH.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED POORLY WITH JET SEGMENT IN
ADVANCE OF SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE UKMET AND NAM WERE
DOING THE BEST BUT WERE STILL OFF. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS...ECMWF
...CANADIAN AND SREF WERE DOING ABOUT THE SAME AND THE BEST OF THE
AVAILABLE OUTPUT. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE UKMET...GFS...NAM
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE NOT PRODUCING A LOT OF QPF...THEY ARE TENDING
TO OVERDO IT WITH THE GFS...NAM...AND SREF THE WORST.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO POOR
INITIAL ANALYSIS ON MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES...AND MODELS CHANGING
FROM THEIR SOLUTIONS...SOMETIMES DRAMATICALLY...FROM 24 HOURS AGO.
SAYING ALL THAT...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DOES STILL LOOK ON
TRACK DUE TO THE VARIABLE PHASES...VARIABLE ICE AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
IN GENERAL DID INCREASE ICE AMOUNTS...STILL BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH...DUE TO A LONGER TIME FOR ICE ACCUMULATION...AND LOWERED
SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY DUE TO NOT VERY MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION UNTIL
TONIGHT.
TODAY/TONIGHT...JET SETUP BY THE END OF THE DAY IS DIFFERENT THAN
WHAT WAS DEPICTED YESTERDAY. BY LATE IN THE DAY THE MAIN JET
SEGMENT IS STILL TO THE WEST OF MY AREA WITH THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OVER THE AREA. SO AT FIRST GLANCE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A LOT TO DRIVE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT DUE TO ANY STRONG
FEATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS DO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
QPF. THE LIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THIS DOME OF COLD AIR.
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO START THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME
PRECIPITATION. SO BELIEVE WILL HAVE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AROUND FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. SO QUESTION BECOMES PHASE. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
EITHER A DRY AIR MASS OR ONLY A SATURATED SHALLOW AIR MASS AND
THAT WAS EVIDENT IN SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH I WILL ADD. GFS HAS
CHANGED ITS TUNE FROM YESTERDAY. IT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN
SATURATING THE COLUMN TO A DEEPER DEPTH. THE NAM ALSO CHANGED ITS
TUNE AND SATURATED TO GREATER DEPTH...AT LEAST IN THE BEGINNING...IN
A SIMILAR FASHION AS THE GFS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY DRIER ALOFT THAN
THE NAM.
WARM LAYER APPEARS IN ALL AREAS OR ALMOST ALL AREAS AT THE BEGINNING
WITH THE GFS SHOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. NORTHERN AREAS
SHOULD SEE ALL SNOW ONLY BECAUSE THE DENDRITIC ZONE IS AT THE
SURFACE. FOR A FEW COUNTIES SOUTH AND WEST OF THAT A MIXTURE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE...SNOW AND SLEET IS INDICATED WITH THE FAR SOUTH
AND WEST INDICATING SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS AREA WORKS ITS
WAY SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY. ALL IN ALL THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD THE POP AND PHASE LAYOUT IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WITH NOT VERY STRONG LIFT...DID REDUCE THE
ALREADY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL IN PLACE. GFS CONTINUES TO NOT HAVE A DEEP OF
A SATURATED LAYER AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THE DENDRITIC ZONE REMAINS
NEAR OR AT THE SURFACE. WHAT IS ALSO DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY IS
THAT THE GFS IS DOING WHAT THE NAM WAS DOING YESTERDAY WHICH IS
KEEPING A MIXTURE IN PLACE FOR MUCH LONGER. IF SOUNDINGS ARE
CORRECT THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST MAY NOT DO A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AM CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING PRECIPITATION/SNOW
AMOUNTS DUE TO THE STRONG LIFT FROM THE JET/UPPER DEFORMATION MOVING
ACROSS. BY MIDNIGHT THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST HALF AND THAT IS WHERE WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH AMOUNTS
CAREFULLY.
FOR MAXES...MODEL GUIDANCE IS WARMER AND THAT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DUE TO THE MODELS NOT COOLING OFF TEMPERATURES AS MUCH FOR THIS
MORNING. MAXES MAY BE EARLY. USED A COMBINATION OF HRRR AND MAV TO
ADJUST THE MAXES. KEPT MINS WARMER AND ABOVE THE COLDEST GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE WINDS. CONSEQUENTLY THE WIND CHILL
READINGS ARE NOT AS LOW AS PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH MARGINAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFERING ON THE SPEED/POSITION A
LITTLE BUT IN GENERAL THEY SHOW THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT AFFECTING
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. THIS IS
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. IT IS ALSO BY THIS TIME THAT
DOWNGLIDE IS OCCURRING ON 290 SURFACE. PRECIPITATION BE HIGHEST IN
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE JET AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SO KEPT HIGHER POPS THERE AND LOWERED THEM OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH FLURRIES
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING. BASED ON SATURATED LOW LEVELS DID TOSS
IN SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CLOUDS...UPSLOPE WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE DAY. NOT SURE WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS WARMING UP MAXES SO
MUCH. KEPT THE MAXES NEAR THE COLDER SIDE AND NEAR THE BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE. MINS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT
WHICH AGAIN MEANS WIND CHILL READINGS NOT GETTING AS COLD. AGAIN
REACHING MARGINAL ADVISORY VALUES.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND AFFECTS THE AREA AT
LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE A DEEP DRY LAYER SO ONLY
CLOUDS WILL RESULT. SO THIS PERIOD WILL JUST END UP BEING A
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS AND WHERE...
THAT COULD CAUSE IN THE TEMPERATURE LAYOUT I HAVE IN THERE. MODELS
ARE BRINGING IN WARMER AIR FURTHER EAST AND FOR THE MOST PART I
BELIEVE THEY ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS A BETTER
DEPICTION OF THE SURFACE...DO LIKE ITS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BETTER. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO HOLD TO COLD
TEMPERATURES TOO LONG IN THIS PATTERN WHICH BECOMES STRONG ZONAL.
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS IN ERNEST DURING THE NIGHT AND
MAY END UP HAVING WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THIS PERIOD AS THE
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT
FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THURSDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S. FRIDAY ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...REMAINING OVER THE AREA UNTIL
SATURDAY. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
COMPLICATED/MESSY SET OF TAFS...ESPECIALLY AT KGLD. IFR CEILINGS
CAN BE EXPECTED AT KGLD THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. THIS MORNING
PRECIPITATION COULD RANGE AND CHANGE BACK AND FORTH FROM
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING.
THIS AFTERNOON THE PHASE TRANSITION WILL BE FROM A SLEET/SNOW MIX
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES
DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE. AT 06Z...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY BY LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FOR KMCK...SOME FOG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH THE PHASE
BEING SNOW. CONDITIONS AT KMCK WILL START AS MVFR AND THEN DROP TO
IFR BY 18Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNTIL 06Z WHEN CEILINGS
COME UP TO MVFR. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE
RANGE. EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY BY LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
419 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS...AMONG VERY MANY...WILL BE PHASE OF
PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNT OF ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION INTO TOMORROW
SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/COMPLEX AND EVEN
RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CANADA. HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE RESIDES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH BROAD AND
COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER CANADA. WEAKENING/FILLING SYSTEM IS MOVING
TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF IT. A SIGNIFICANT LOBE ROTATING
AROUND THE CANADIAN TROUGH IS PUSHING SOUTH.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED POORLY WITH JET SEGMENT IN
ADVANCE OF SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE UKMET AND NAM WERE
DOING THE BEST BUT WERE STILL OFF. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS...ECMWF
...CANADIAN AND SREF WERE DOING ABOUT THE SAME AND THE BEST OF THE
AVAILABLE OUTPUT. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE UKMET...GFS...NAM
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE NOT PRODUCING A LOT OF QPF...THEY ARE TENDING
TO OVERDO IT WITH THE GFS...NAM...AND SREF THE WORST.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO POOR
INITIAL ON MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES...AND MODELS CHANGING FROM THEIR
SOLUTIONS...SOMETIMES DRAMATICALLY...FROM 24 HOURS AGO.
SAYING ALL THAT...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DOES STILL LOOK ON
TRACK DUE TO THE VARIABLE PHASES AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
TODAY/TONIGHT...JET SETUP BY THE END OF THE DAY IS DIFFERENT THAN
WHAT WAS DEPICTED YESTERDAY. BY LATE IN THE DAY THE MAIN JET
SEGMENT IS STILL TO THE WEST OF MY AREA WITH THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OVER THE AREA. SO AT FIRST GLANCE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A LOT TO DRIVE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT DUE TO ANY STRONG
FEATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS DO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
QPF. THE LIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THIS DOME OF COLD AIR.
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO START THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE STARTING TO SHOW IT. SO BELIEVE
WILL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SO QUESTION
BECOMES PHASE. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW EITHER A DRY AIR MASS OR ONLY A
SATURATED SHALLOW AIR MASS AND THAT WAS EVIDENT IN SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. GFS HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE FROM YESTERDAY. IT IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE IN SATURATING THE COLUMN TO A DEEPER DEPTH. THE NAM ALSO
CHANGED ITS TUNE AND SATURATED TO GREATER DEPTH...AT LEAST IN THE
BEGINNING...IN A SIMILAR AS THE GFS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY DRIER ALOFT
THAN THE NAM.
WARM LAYER APPEARS IN ALL AREAS OR ALMOST ALL AREAS AT THE BEGINNING
WITH THE GFS SHOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. NORTHERN AREAS
SHOULD SEE ALL SNOW ONLY BECAUSE THE DENDRITIC ZONE IS AT THE
SURFACE. FOR A FEW COUNTIES SOUTH AND WEST OF THAT A MIXTURE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE...SNOW AND SLEET IS INDICATED WITH THE FAR SOUTH
AND WEST INDICATING SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS AREA WORKS ITS
WAY SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY. ALL IN ALL THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD THE POP AND PHASE LAYOUT IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WITH NOT VERY STRONG LIFT...DID REDUCE THE
ALREADY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL IN PLACE. GFS CONTINUES TO NOT HAVE A DEEP OF
A SATURATED LAYER AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THE DENDRITIC ZONE REMAINS
NEAR OR AT THE SURFACE. WHAT IS ALSO DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY IS
THAT THE GFS IS DOING WHAT THE NAM WAS DOING YESTERDAY WHICH IS
KEEPING A MIXTURE IN PLACE FOR MUCH LONGER. IF SOUNDINGS ARE
CORRECT THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST MAY NOT DO A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW.
AM CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING PRECIPITATION/SNOW
AMOUNTS DUE TO THE STRONG LIFT FROM THE JET/UPPER DEFORMATION MOVING
ACROSS. BY MIDNIGHT THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST HALF AND THAT IS WHERE WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH AMOUNTS
CAREFULLY.
FOR MAXES...MODEL GUIDANCE IS WARMER AND THAT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DUE TO THE MODELS NOT COOLING OFF TEMPERATURES AS MUCH FOR THIS
MORNING. MAXES MAY BE EARLY. USED A COMBINATION OF HRRR AND MAV TO
ADJUST THE MAXES. KEPT MINS WARMER AND ABOVE THE COLDEST GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE WINDS. CONSEQUENTLY THE WIND CHILL
READINGS ARE NOT AS LOW AS PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH MARGINAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFERING ON THE SPEED/POSITION A
LITTLE BUT IN GENERAL THEY SHOW THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT AFFECTING
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. THIS IS
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. IT IS ALSO BY THIS TIME THAT
DOWNGLIDE IS OCCURRING ON 290 SURFACE. PRECIPITATION BE HIGHEST IN
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE JET AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SO KEPT HIGHER POPS THERE AND LOWERED THEM OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH FLURRIES
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING. BASED ON SATURATED LOW LEVELS DID TOSS
IN SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CLOUDS...UPSLOPE WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE DAY. NOT SURE WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS WARMING UP MAXES SO
MUCH. KEPT THE MAXES NEAR THE COLDER SIDE AND NEAR THE BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE. MINS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT
WHICH AGAIN MEANS WIND CHILL READINGS NOT GETTING AS COLD. AGAIN
REACHING MARGINAL ADVISORY VALUES.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND AFFECTS THE AREA AT
LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE A DEEP DRY LAYER SO ONLY
CLOUDS WILL RESULT. SO THIS PERIOD WILL JUST END UP BEING A
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS AND WHERE...
THAT COULD CAUSE IN THE TEMPERATURE LAYOUT I HAVE IN THERE. MODELS
ARE BRINGING IN WARMER AIR FURTHER EAST AND FOR THE MOST PART I
BELIEVE THEY ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS A BETTER
DEPICTION OF THE SURFACE...DO LIKE ITS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BETTER. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO HOLD TO COLD
TEMPERATURES TOO LONG IN THIS PATTERN WHICH BECOMES STRONG ZONAL.
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS IN ERNEST DURING THE NIGHT AND
MAY END UP HAVING WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THIS PERIOD AS THE
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT
FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THURSDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S. FRIDAY ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...REMAINING OVER THE AREA UNTIL
SATURDAY. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST FRI FEB 28 2014
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. WHAT WE CAN SAY
WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS CIGS WILL BE MVFR-IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KGLD...EAST WINDS 10-15KTS TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
BY 12Z THEN SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE 15G25KTS OR
SO THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z OR SO
WITH PRIMARY WIND FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS. PRECIP
TYPE/INTENSITY WILL BE CHALLENGING. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP TIL THE
09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME WHEN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES A BIT AND
REMAINS SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SHOULD SEE A MIX OF -FZDZSN
INITIALLY WITH POSSIBLY A TRANSITION TO -PLSN AFTER 15Z OR SO WITH
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME FOG/MIST ALSO EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
KMCK...NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15KTS EXPECTED TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST BY 09Z AND REMAIN SO WHILE ALSO BECOMING GUSTY FROM 15Z
THROUGH THE DAY THEN DECREASE TOWARD 10KTS AFTER SUNSET. PRECIP
TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-
041-042.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
430 AM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 430 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
High pressure continues to nose south into the Plains early this
morning with local values ranging from the teens in the north to
near freezing in the south. Low level winds via upstream profiles
show north to northeast winds over the lower few thousand feet,
though sensors in Kansas indicate veering winds over the cold dome.
First hints and higher near-surface saturation occurring here with
EMP visibility at 7 SM and somewhat enhanced reflectivities from
KTWX. 0Z upper air obs from KAMA, KDDC, and KLBF showing drier mid
levels behinds yesterday`s weak wave.
Latest guidance quite similar and not different from earlier
forecasts. Mid level isentropic lift increases through the day, but
still much dry air to overcome to get precipitation generated aloft
to reach the ground. Deeper saturation takes place from northwest to
southeast and have modest precipitation chances following this
afternoon. Much of the day will see some concern for very light
precip formed via 900-800 mb frontogenesis. Lower clouds already in
place so not much lift should be needed to get something to fall,
especially later in the day. Lift seems to be high enough into the
frontal zone for this to occur temps warmer than ice crystal
formation values, but fall into colder, ice-generating temps. Along
with inherent uncertainty in the models handling of the near-surface
layers, have mentioned both freezing drizzle and flurries, but if
the former can dominate, become persistent and heavy, initial travel
problems could occur before main precip starts and this will need to
be watched today. Continued near-surface cold air advection should
bring slowly falling temps.
(Tonight through Monday)...
Complex weather scenario tonight through Sunday. The upper low was
still over the eastern Pacific off the California coast this morning
will move onshore today then out into the Rockies tonight before
moving out into the Southern and Central Plains on Sunday.
Main concern with this system is the amount of warm air above the
cold dome. 00Z NAM was the most aggressive with the warm
nose...while the 06Z run backed off a little with the regards to the
northern extent of the warm air. Good isentropic lift will be
ongoing this evening and strengthening overnight. Forecast time
sections show prolonged frontogenetic forcing along with periods of
CI or CSI trending toward banded precipitation and locally higher
amounts. As mentioned above with regards to the warm nose, forecast
soundings suggest that much of east central and northeast Kansas
will see a prolonged period of sleet this evening and into the early
morning hours on Sunday before becoming all snow. The sleet could
accumulate up to an inch. There still is some uncertainty with
snowfall amounts as the placement of the heavy band could change.
Have decided to issue a Winter Storm Warning for the snow and sleet
combination and amounts may need to be further refined with time.
Current thinking is that anywhere from 3 to 7 inches is possible.
The NAM is the faster of the model solutions with bringing in the
dry air and ending precipitation. Trended toward the GFS and ECMWF
with timing. However the new 06Z GFS is even a little slower than
the 00Z run.
The upper trough is forecast to move off to the east Sunday night
with precipitation coming to an end during the evening hours. In
addition to the snow and sleet very cold temperatures and winds of
15 to 20 mph will produce wind chills of 15 to 21 below tonight and
from 18 to 23 below zero Sunday night. High pressure will move into
the eastern Kansas on Monday. Lows tonight will fall into the single
digits with areas along the Nebraska border ranging from zero to 2
below. Highs on Sunday will rise little with temperatures remaining
in the 4 to 7 degree range.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 430 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
Monday night through Friday...
A few longer-wavelength waves remain on track to pass mainly west to
east through the region. ECMWF stronger with the first on Monday
night into early Tuesday but hard to see anything but trace amounts
falling in even the stronger scenario. Next wave around Wednesday
deepens as it passes for a somewhat better precip opportunity, with
the final around the end of the forecast, again looking to deep as
it comes east, but much uncertainty in just how this wave pans out.
Temperatures still should generally moderate with time however.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
Models are in reasonable agreement that MVFR CIGS will persist
through the period. The RAP and NAM isentropic surfaces continue
to show relatively deep upglide developing by mid morning, and think
there is a good chance for patchy freezing drizzle and flurries in
the late morning and through the afternoon. Confidence in the
start of the heavier banded sleet and snow with possible IFR CIGS
and VSBY is a little more marginal, and may begin closer to 06Z
Sunday. Therefore will not include any IFR conditions at this time
and let later shifts refine the timing.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 PM this evening to Midnight CST
Sunday Night FOR KSZ022>024-026-035>040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to Midnight CST
Sunday Night FOR KSZ008>012-020-021-034.
WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
FOR KSZ054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65/53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1102 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
Have updated the forecast to hold off on the patchy freezing
drizzle until after 12Z Saturday. The RAP/NAM/GFS isentropic progs
show the upglide developing between 12 and 15Z. Think this is when
any patchy freezing drizzle is most likely to occur, and it still
looks like some flurries could fly through the day as the lower
portion of the forecast soundings cool down enough for dendrites
to form.
The 00Z NAM has not cleared things up much. It is now more
aggressive in advecting dry air in from the north and ends the
precip by Sunday morning. Do not have much confidence in making
adjustments based solely off the NAM so will maintain the watch
for now. In general it looks like we could see some isentropic
upglide through the day Saturday, then a band of frontogenesis
moving across central and eastern KS overnight. Forecast soundings
from the 00Z NAM continue to suggest sleet may be the more
predominate precip type with its warm nose remaining over much of
the area until midnight. With no cyclogenesis or strong synoptic
scale forcing progged by any of the models (upper closed low
progged to weaken quite a bit as it moves across the Rockies and
become an open wave moving across OK) am wondering if a shorter
duration event is becoming more likely. Will wait to digest the
GFS and other models before making substantial changes to the
forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 404 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
Current sfc analysis places the cold front or trough across central
KS and into SE NE. The arctic front associated with the cold air is
plowing southward through central NE at the moment, and should reach
the northwest forecast area in about an hour or two, and exit the
southeast forecast area by around midnight. Ahead of the front low
level moisture has been slow to spread northward, but has finally
made it into most of northern KS in the form of a stratus deck.
With the moisture in place isolated to scattered rain showers are
possible along and behind the front mainly north of interstate 70
for the rest of this evening as it progresses eastward along the NE
KS border. Any precip that falls should remain light. Winds shift
behind the front the to NNE and increase to around 15 mph with gusts
up to 20 mph. Some of the latest guidance is suggesting the low
level lift and saturation remains over eastern KS through the
overnight hours. With temperatures rapidly falling behind the front
there could be a period of light freezing drizzle. As the deep cold
air continues to filter southward temperatures within the layer of
lift may be cold enough for ice growth therefore flurries could mix
in as well. The NAM keeps the lift through tomorrow afternoon,
although there could be a lull early tomorrow morning before picking
up again ahead of the approaching system. Do not expect much impact
from the freezing drizzle since the warm temperatures today and
flurries could mix in as well. Also not confident how long the low
level lift persists behind the front. Temperatures will bottom out
overnight and should reach the low 10s in north central KS to the
mid 20s in far east central KS by sunrise tomorrow. Temperatures
will basically remain steady through the day tomorrow with the highs
only a few degrees warmer than the morning lows as of now. As the
lift and saturation increases in the mid levels tomorrow afternoon
snow could develop especially areas north of interstate 70. Models
do agree that the warm nose could still be present tomorrow
afternoon as far north as the NE KS border so could not rule out
periods of sleet as well.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 404 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
The bulk of the attention today was placed on the period from
Saturday evening through Monday morning, when a potentially
significant winter storm combined with dangerously cold wind chills
will impact the area. From a forecast perspective, uncertainty is
higher than normal and the potential spread of forecast solutions is
quite large. So, while the entire area will experience hazardous
winter weather, the magnitude of the winter storm remains very much
in question.
In this rather complex weather scenario, the first player will be an
upper trough and jet max that moves well to our north and into the
Great Lakes region. This system will send increasingly cold air into
Kansas, air which will also be a bit drier in nature. The associated
frontogenesis and favorable jet dynamics will also provide enhanced
vertical motion across the area and associated precipitation. At the
same time...a well developed storm system will move out of the
southern Rockies. Ahead of this trough, a broad area of warm moist
advection will overtake the Southern Plains and nose into the
Central Plains...overriding the cold air incoming from the north.
This will create a very dynamic situation by Saturday evening
through Sunday morning during which a battle between dry cold
advection from the north and moist warm advection from the south
will result in bands of probably intense vertical motion. In more
detail, these bands will be comprised mainly of intense
frontogenesis in the mid levels, isentropic ascent within and above
the nose of warm advection aloft, favorable jet dynamics, and the
coincidence of this lift with weakly stable to convectively unstable
thermal profiles. The expected result is a WSW to ENE oriented band
of heavy precipitation gradually moving south across the area from
Saturday evening into Sunday. As the southwest trough approaches,
the progression of the heavy precipitation band will slow and nearly
stop...with some model guidance suggesting additional precipitation
developing north of the heaviest band and spreading back across the
area. Some of the latest mid day guidance however is more aggressive
with the intrusion of the northerly dry air and maintains a track
of the upper trough a bit farther south...which would limit precip
in northern parts of the forecast area on Sunday.
There are currently two primary questions with this forecast. The
first is the magnitude of the dry air incoming from the north. If
this airmass marches well into the forecast area on Sunday...which
would also be tied to the storm track of the incoming upper
trough...then precip amounts on Sunday would be substantially lower
especially north of I-70. If this precip falls, it would be entirely
snow so any reduction in precip on Sunday would be a stark reduction
in snow totals on top of any sleet/snow combo that falls with the
heaviest band. The other primary forecast question revolves around
whether we get more sleet or snow as the heaviest band drifts
overhead. Sleet is definitely favored early in the event near and
south of I-70, and it could pile up quickly before turning over to
snow. This would cause snow amounts to be much lower however. The
current forecast reflects this in lower snow amounts along the I-35
corridor despite higher expected liquid content. A quicker change
over to snow would obviously result in less sleet and a lot more
snow. As it stands, expect some locations especially near and south
of I-35 to be in the 0.5 to 1 inch of sleet range. Snow amounts near
the Nebraska border should be lightest...probably in the 1-5 inch
range with more uncertainty farther south. Would not be surprised to
have several observations of 6 to 8 inches in addition to some
sleet. With all of this in mind, have maintained the winter storm
watch for most of the area, but did issue a winter weather advisory
for the far northern counties as the probability of a non-warning
winter weather event is likely in this area.
Wind chills will be very cold from Saturday night through Monday
morning, and will not rise above -10 during the day on Sunday before
approaching -25 on Monday morning. Beyond Monday, a gradual warming
trend is expected with no high impact weather expected through the
remainder of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1102 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
Models are in reasonable agreement that MVFR CIGS will persist
through the period. The RAP and NAM isentropic surfaces continue
to show relatively deep upglide developing by mid morning, and think
there is a good chance for patchy freezing drizzle and flurries in
the late morning and through the afternoon. Confidence in the
start of the heavier banded sleet and snow with possible IFR CIGS
and VSBY is a little more marginal, and may begin closer to 06Z
Sunday. Therefore will not include any IFR conditions at this time
and let later shifts refine the timing.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH from Saturday evening through late Sunday
night FOR KSZ021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday
FOR KSZ008>012-020.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
244 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST
ALONG THIS FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
COLD HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO FLOW INTO THE REGION WITH
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD
OF ATHE PPROACHING FRONT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT
TONIGHT IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WHERE ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. MESOSCALE MODELS CONSISTENT
WITH THIS IDEA...HOWEVER THE LASTEST HRRR RUN APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE WITH PRECIP FOR THE COASTAL REGIONS OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUD
COVER AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME OF OUR COLDEST SPOTS LAST
NIGHT REACHED 20 BELOW ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL SAG WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER IS PASSES
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING. 12Z MODEL SUITE NOW EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES IN PORTLAND TOMORROW. IF WE
DO BREAK THE FREEZING POINT...IT WILL BE AFTER QUITE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING WEATHER. THEREAFTER...WE ARE BACK INTO
THE DEEP FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW ZERO...EVEN ALONG
THE COAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH NO SNOW PREDICTED FOR OUR AREA MONDAY.
A SECOND FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE
WITH THIS FRONT SO EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER COLD HIGH BUILDS IN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS IN FOR FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS IN SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HENCE SCAS
REMAIN IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS AT OR BELOW SCA THROUGH THE FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
401 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PERSISTENT TROF
OVER CANADA WITH CORE OF COLDEST AIR/CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY.
12Z H85 TEMPS UNDER THE LOWEST HGTS ARE AOB -30C...INDLUDING -30C AT
INL AND -33C AT YPL. WITH A LLVL NW FLOW E OF ARCTIC HI PRES OVER
THE CNDN PRAIRIES BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS...THIS COLD AIR IS
ADVECTING INTO UPR MI. ALTHOUGH LATEST VSBL STLT IMAGERY SHOWS LK
SUP IS MAINLY ICE COVERED...THERE ARE STILL SOME CLD/SHSN BANDS
STREAMING INTO THE AREA AS THE UPSTREAM 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS SHOWED A
RELATIVELY MOIST LLVL AIRMASS. BUT ANY PCPN HAS BEEN ON THE LGT
SIDE...WITH EXTENSIVE ICE AND LLVL ACYC FLOW TENDING TO LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHSN. ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH INCRSG EARLY
MARCH SUN ANGLE HAS ALSO RESULTED IN MORE INSTABILITY CU/SC OVER
LAND AS WELL. SOME THICKER MID/HI CLDS ARE IMPACTING WI AND SRN UPR
MI ON THE NRN FLANK OF DISTURBANCE/DEEPER MSTR TO THE S. SN UNDER
SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 140KT H3 JET MAX STREAKING ACRS NRN MN/LK
SUP IS AS FAR N AS SRN MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLD TRENDS/CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS.
TNGT...AS CNDN HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD INTO THE NRN PLAINS...AN
ACYC NW FLOW WL DOMINATE THE UPR LKS. ALTHOUGH SOME UPR DVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK MOVING THRU THE UPR LKS WL PASS ACRS THE
SCENTRAL THIS EVNG...GENERAL DRY ADVECTION IN THE H85-7 LYR SHOULD
SUPPRESS NRN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD TO THE S OF MENOMINEE. ALTHOUGH
SOME LK CLDS/A FEW SN SHOWERS OFF LK SUP MAY LINGER UNDER THE COLD
FLOW IN THE EVNG...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS ACYC FLOW/
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN TOWARD 2K FT SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS SHOULD
RESULT IN ALMOST COMPLETE SUPPRESSION OF CLDS/SN SHOWERS OVERNGT.
WITH SKIES TURNING MOCLR AND PWAT UNDER 0.10 INCH...EXPECT SFC TEMPS
TO TUMBLE AOB -20F AT MANY OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS. GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OF THE LK THAT WL TEND TO RESULT IN LOWER TEMPS
OVER THE CWA...TRENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
FCST. LOWERING INVRN BASE/INCRSG STABILITY SHOULD KEEP SFC WINDS
UNDER THE 10 MPH THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BUT ISSUED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE RESULTING VERY LO APRNT/WIND CHILL TEMPS THAT
WL FALL AS LO AS -35F AT SOME PLACES.
SUN...THERE WL BE A SHRTWV TRACKING SEWD TO THE NE OF UPR MI AND
THRU ONTARIO...BUT BULK OF ASSOCIATED UPR FORCING WL REMAIN TO THE
NE OF UPR MI. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSAGE OF ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LO PRES TROF MAY RESULT IN SOME CLDS AND EVEN A FEW LGT SN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA TOWARD THE ACCOMPANYING
DYANMIC FORCING...LO INVRN BASES SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO RANGE FM NEAR -20C OVER THE SCENTRAL TO AS LO AS
-24C OR -25C OVER THE N. WITH THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER...TEMPS WL
REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL
TRANSITION AWAY FROM THE VERY COLD AIR AS THE HIGH LATITUDE RIDGING
INTO ERN AK SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO ERN SIBERIA. THE RESULTING
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO SHIFT OFF
TO THE NE AND MORE MODERATE PACIFIC AIR INTO THE CNTRL CONUS.
HOWEVER...A TREND BACK TOWARD RIDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH NW
FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES WILL KEEP ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE REGION FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SUN NIGHT...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN DROP TO THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...INTO THE -20F TO -30F RANGE INLAND WITH
TEENS BELOW READINGS CLOSER TO THE LAKES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OPEN
WATER PATCHES OVER THE S CNTRL LAKE FOR SOME ISOLD -SHSN INTO THE NE
CWA. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
MON INTO TUE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MON SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE 10F TO 15F RANGE. WNW TO W WINDS SHOULD KEEP ANY
LIGHT LES NEAR THE SHORE IN THE NE CWA. A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COULD BRING AN AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SINCE THE MODELS STILL SHOWED DIFFERENCES WITH
THE GFS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/GEM...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED. EVEN THE MORE
NRN TRACK WOULD ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
WED...MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
WITH DRY WEATHER AND MORE MODERATE BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS.
THU-SAT...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NRN LAKES BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH BETTER MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED GIVE TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES. THE WARMEST CONDITONS OF THE WEEK ARE POSSIBLE BY THU
WITH TEMPS NEAR 30F. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWVM
SHOULD BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE
LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
EXPECT HI END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN TO GIVE WAY TO JUST
VFR WX THIS EVNG THRU SUN AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO THE E OF HI PRES
BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS BRINGS MOCLR SKIES. DESPITE COLD NW FLOW
THAT MIGHT RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS THRU THIS AFTN...EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER ON LK SUP AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WL PREVENT ANY LK EFFECT
SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
EXPECT NW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS TO THE E OF HI PRES BUILDING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KTS AFTER MON NIGHT AS
THE HI CENTER PASSES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
356 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PERSISTENT TROF
OVER CANADA WITH CORE OF COLDEST AIR/CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY.
12Z H85 TEMPS UNDER THE LOWEST HGTS ARE AOB -30C...INDLUDING -30C AT
INL AND -33C AT YPL. WITH A LLVL NW FLOW E OF ARCTIC HI PRES OVER
THE CNDN PRAIRIES BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS...THIS COLD AIR IS
ADVECTING INTO UPR MI. ALTHOUGH LATEST VSBL STLT IMAGERY SHOWS LK
SUP IS MAINLY ICE COVERED...THERE ARE STILL SOME CLD/SHSN BANDS
STREAMING INTO THE AREA AS THE UPSTREAM 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS SHOWED A
RELATIVELY MOIST LLVL AIRMASS. BUT ANY PCPN HAS BEEN ON THE LGT
SIDE...WITH EXTENSIVE ICE AND LLVL ACYC FLOW TENDING TO LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHSN. ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH INCRSG EARLY
MARCH SUN ANGLE HAS ALSO RESULTED IN MORE INSTABILITY CU/SC OVER
LAND AS WELL. SOME THICKER MID/HI CLDS ARE IMPACTING WI AND SRN UPR
MI ON THE NRN FLANK OF DISTURBANCE/DEEPER MSTR TO THE S. SN UNDER
SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 140KT H3 JET MAX STREAKING ACRS NRN MN/LK
SUP IS AS FAR N AS SRN MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLD TRENDS/CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS.
TNGT...AS CNDN HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD INTO THE NRN PLAINS...AN
ACYC NW FLOW WL DOMINATE THE UPR LKS. ALTHOUGH SOME UPR DVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK MOVING THRU THE UPR LKS WL PASS ACRS THE
SCENTRAL THIS EVNG...GENERAL DRY ADVECTION IN THE H85-7 LYR SHOULD
SUPPRESS NRN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD TO THE S OF MENOMINEE. ALTHOUGH
SOME LK CLDS/A FEW SN SHOWERS OFF LK SUP MAY LINGER UNDER THE COLD
FLOW IN THE EVNG...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS ACYC FLOW/
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN TOWARD 2K FT SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS SHOULD
RESULT IN ALMOST COMPLETE SUPPRESSION OF CLDS/SN SHOWERS OVERNGT.
WITH SKIES TURNING MOCLR AND PWAT UNDER 0.10 INCH...EXPECT SFC TEMPS
TO TUMBLE AOB -20F AT MANY OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS. GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OF THE LK THAT WL TEND TO RESULT IN LOWER TEMPS
OVER THE CWA...TRENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
FCST. LOWERING INVRN BASE/INCRSG STABILITY SHOULD KEEP SFC WINDS
UNDER THE 10 MPH THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BUT ISSUED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE RESULTING VERY LO APRNT/WIND CHILL TEMPS THAT
WL FALL AS LO AS -35F AT SOME PLACES.
SUN...THERE WL BE A SHRTWV TRACKING SEWD TO THE NE OF UPR MI AND
THRU ONTARIO...BUT BULK OF ASSOCIATED UPR FORCING WL REMAIN TO THE
NE OF UPR MI. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSAGE OF ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LO PRES TROF MAY RESULT IN SOME CLDS AND EVEN A FEW LGT SN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA TOWARD THE ACCOMPANYING
DYANMIC FORCING...LO INVRN BASES SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO RANGE FM NEAR -20C OVER THE SCENTRAL TO AS LO AS
-24C OR -25C OVER THE N. WITH THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER...TEMPS WL
REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
CURRENT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING
N THRU AK/YUKON AND A DEEP TROF DOWNSTREAM OVER MUCH OF CANADA INTO
THE ADJACENT CONUS WILL BE BREAKING DOWN DURING THE LONG TERM. AS
HAPPENED WITH THE LAST OCCURRENCE OF THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN A
FEW WEEKS AGO...THE NRN END OF THE WRN RIDGE IS STILL FCST TO CLOSE
OFF AND RETROGRADE TO SIBERIA...ALLOWING PACIFIC FLOW TO STRENGTHEN
INTO THE CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLOW MODERATION OF THE COLD
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW A TENDENCY FOR SOME DEGREE OF WRN RIDGING WHICH SHOULD
ENSURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PREVAIL ON MOST DAYS ACROSS UPPER MI
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS NOT
REALLY FAVORABLE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN. HOWEVER...
SHORTWAVES SWEEPING ONSHORE OFF THE PACIFIC AND TRACKING E IN A MORE
PROGRESSIVE LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME WILL BRING SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...BUT
AT THIS TIME...NOTHING LOOKS SIGNIFICANT. NORMALLY WOULD BE DEALING
WITH LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THIS LINGERING VERY COLD AIR MASS...
BUT WITH EXTENSIVE ICE COVER THAT IS NEARING 100PCT...LES WILL
ALMOST BE NONEXISTENT THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
BEGINNING SUN/MON...WHILE A SHORTWAVE SWINGING AROUND VORTEX IN THE
VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY/NRN QUEBEC WILL BRUSH THE AREA SUN...AIR MASS IS
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY -SN...ESPECIALLY SINCE STRONGER FORCING
PASSES BY TO THE N AND NE. IN ADDITION...WITH NEAR 100PCT ICE COVER
ON LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE REALLY WON`T BE ANY LAKE COMPONENT. SINCE
RATHER BRISK W TO NW WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE LAKE...ICE MAY
BE PUSHED ENOUGH TO EITHER MAINTAIN OR OPEN UP A LITTLE OPEN WATER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MN N SHORE UP PAST ISLE ROYALE AND ALSO TO THE
LEE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. IF SO...THERE WILL BE A FEW -SHSN OR
FLURRIES...AND THUS SCHC POPS WILL BE UTILIZED IN THE AREAS FAVORED
BY W TO NW WINDS. OTHERWISE...WILL CARRY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
BOARD SUN AND ON INTO MON AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES SETTLES SE INTO THE
PLAINS AND EXTENDS WEAK RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS SUN/MON
AFTN WILL STILL BE VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EVEN THOUGH AIR
MASS WILL BE SLOWLY MODERATING. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 10F SUN AND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER FOR MON. SHOULD BE A
BITTERLY COLD NIGHT SUN NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE SUFFICIENTLY. A VERY DRY AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE
WATER JUST 15-20PCT OF NORMAL) WILL ENHANCE THE COOLING POTENTIAL.
FAVORED MIN TEMPS AT OR BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE IN THE INTERIOR...
ESPECIALLY AT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS WHICH SHOULD EASILY FALL WELL
DOWN INTO THE -20S AND PERHAPS REACH -30F AT A LOCATION OR TWO.
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND THEN ESE WILL BRING SOME
-SN TO THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAD BEEN GENERALLY FARTHER N...BUT THE
12Z TRENDED S...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER HERE. THE 00Z RUN IS BACK
TO BRUSHING THE AREA WITH SOME -SN. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TRENDED
N...AND BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME -SN...ESPECIALLY THE GEM. WILL
INCLUDE SCHC POPS ACROSS THE SW LATE MON NIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TUE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TIME BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE TO
RESULT IN A QUICK TEMP DROP MON EVENING. LEANED TOWARD THE COLD SIDE
OF GUIDANCE MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY E WHERE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATEST
(-TEENS IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS E). TEMPS TUE WILL RISE INTO THE
TEENS. TUE NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN AS THE
CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRES PASSES JUST TO THE N AND NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. LIGHT WIND AND DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WHERE COLUMN WILL BE
DRIEST (PRECIPITABLE WATER 25PCT OF NORMAL). MINS IN THE USUAL COLD
SPOTS OVER THE E SHOULD FALL INTO THE -TEENS.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO WED AS HIGH PRES CENTER DRIFTS E. E
TO SE WINDS WON`T FAVOR MUCH OF A WARM UP OVER TUE. HIGH TEMPS WED
SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS...COLDEST E CLOSER TO CORE OF COLDER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR A FEW DAYS HAS BEEN INDICATING ONE OR TWO
SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE UPPER LAKES AT SOME POINT THU/FRI. FOR
NOW...UTILIZED A SIMPLE CONSENSUS OF RECENT MODEL RUNS WHICH RESULTS
IN SCHC/CHC POPS THU/FRI. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 20S THU IN WAA
REGIME AND MAY TOP OUT AROUND 30F FRI...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
EXPECT HI END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN TO GIVE WAY TO JUST
VFR WX THIS EVNG THRU SUN AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO THE E OF HI PRES
BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS BRINGS MOCLR SKIES. DESPITE COLD NW FLOW
THAT MIGHT RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS THRU THIS AFTN...EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER ON LK SUP AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WL PREVENT ANY LK EFFECT
SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
EXPECT NW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS TO THE E OF HI PRES BUILDING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KTS AFTER MON NIGHT AS
THE HI CENTER PASSES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1228 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ARCTIC BRANCH WNW
FLOW ALF OVER THE UPR LKS TO THE S OF CORE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS/CLOSED
LO CENTERED OVER SRN HUDSON BAY. 12Z H5 TEMP WAS AS LO AS AN
IMPRESSIVE -50C OVER NRN QUEBEC...AND -30C OR LOWER H85 TEMPS WERE
PRESENT WITHIN THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR. A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN THE ARCTIC BRANCH IS CURRENTLY JUST W OF LK WINNIPEG...
WITH SUPPORTING AXIS OF STRONGER H3 WINDS AOA 100KT STRETCHING FM
JUST S OF THE SHRTWV ACRS THE UPR LKS INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME
ENHANCED CLDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN IN WHAT
APPEARS TO BE THE RRQ OF SPEED MAX SUPPORTING THE LK WINNIPEG
SHRTWV. THIS AREA IS ALSO EXPERIENCING GENERAL WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF ACCOMPANYING H85 LO CENTER JUST S OF LK
WINNIPEG. DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON LOCAL
12Z RAOBS...H925 DEWPT DEPRESSION WAS AS HI AS 26C AT MPX AT 12Z...
SOME PATCHY LGT SN HAS BROKEN OUT OVER NE MN WHERE LATEST RUC
ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTENING ON THE
270-280K SFCS /ABOUT H85-7/. DESPITE WHAT APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON VSBL STLT IMAGE OVER THE N PORTION OF LK
MI...A BAND OF -SHSN IN THE LLVL SSW WIND UP THE LENGTH OF LK MOVED
AS FAR N AS INTO MANISTIQUE BY LATE IN THE MRNG. ANOTHER BAND OF SN
UNDER AXIS OF SHARPER MID LVL FGEN IS STREAKING ENEWD THRU WI TOWARD
SCENTRAL UPR MI. OTRW...SFC TEMPS OVER UPR MI HAVE RECOVERED ABV
ZERO FM THE RECORD COLD OBSVD THIS MRNG DESPITE THE THICKENING WAD
CLDS. THE LOWEST TEMP REPORTED WAS -41F AT NEWBERRY CITY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE SN TRENDS/POPS/GOING
HEADLINES ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV/SFC LO NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG. FOCUS
FOR LATER TNGT INTO SAT TURNS TO TEMPS ONCE DRIER AIR RETURNS ALF
AND ENDS THE PCPN. PER NCEP GUIDANCE AND ITS CONSISTENT HANDLING OF
APRCHG DISTURBANCE...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 12Z GFS FOR FCST PREP.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM SHRWTV IS FCST TO OVERSPREAD THE UPR
LKS BY THIS EVNG BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AFT MIDNGT WITH
VIGOROUS MID LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC FOLLOWING. EXPECT THE
PATCHY LGT SN IN NRN MN EARLY THIS AFTN TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF UPR MI
BY LATE AFTN. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE WAD PCPN WL BE
ENHANCED A BIT BY SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET MAX THAT IS
SUPPORTING THE ENHANCED CLDS NOW OVER MN AND WHICH WL BE STREAKING
EWD ACRS LK SUP AND INTO SE ONTARIO AFTER 00Z. LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAVIEST PCPN WL FALL OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA CLOSER TO AXIS OF
SHARPEST MID LVL FGEN AND WHERE THERE WL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT WITH
LLVL SSW FLOW UP THE LENGTH OF LK MI...INCLUDING THE OPEN WATERS S
OF THE LATITUDE OF MENOMINEE WHERE LES BAND WAS QUITE APRNT ON VSBL
STLT IMAGERY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF HIER CLDS OBSCURED THIS FEATURE.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL END
OVERALL LIGHTER PCPN OVER THE W EARLY THIS EVNG AND OVER THE E SOON
AFT 06Z. AS FOR SN TOTALS...H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS FCST TO INCRS TO
1.5-2.0 G/KG OVER THE SE CWA AT 00Z. WITH A 6HR PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
SN AT MOST LOCATIONS...THAT WOULD EQUATE TO UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUM.
BUT FCST SDNGS CONT TO EXHIBIT A DEEP DGZ THAT IS 10K FT OR EVEN
DEEPER. WITH FVRBL SN/WATER RATIOS THAT MAY BE AS HI AS 25-30:1...
EXPECT UP TO 4 INCHES SN TOTAL OVER MUCH OF THE SE CWA WHERE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WL BE GREATEST. WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MI THAT MIGHT
ADD AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR 2 TO THE SN TOTALS...GOING ADVYS FOR
DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES STILL SEEM ON TARGET. AFTER THE PCPN
ENDS...A DVLPG NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LO CENTER TRACKING
ACRS LK SUP WL ADVECT COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE UPR LKS...DROPPING
H85 TEMPS TO ARND -25C OVER THE NW BY 12Z SAT. WITH EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER ON LK SUP...ANY LK EFFECT SHSN IN THE NW WIND SN BELTS SHOULD
BE NO MORE THAN ISOLD. SO MAINTAINED ONLY SCHC POPS IN THESE
LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE CWA WL BE DRY AFT THE EVNG PCPN EXITS.
ONE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVY LVL WIND CHILLS OVER THE W
LATER ON. PREFER THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS SHOWN BY THE FAVORED
GFS...WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A DEEPER SFC LO TRACKING ACRS LK
SUP. BUT EVEN THE HIER GFS NW WINDS AND FCST MIN TEMPS CLOSE TO -10F
OVER THE W RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL WIND CHILLS NEAR -25F LATE TNGT
INTO SAT MRNG. SO OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ADVY FOR NOW.
SAT...THE CWA WL BE DOMINATED BY COLD...ACYC NW FLOW E OF ARCTIC HI
PRES BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS. H85 TEMPS ON SAT ARE FCST TO FALL TO
-29C OVER THE NW TO -25C OVER THE SE CWA BY 00Z SUN. OVERALL ACYC
FLOW AND NEAR ABSENCE OF OPEN WATER OVER LK SUP SHOULD RESTRICT LES
POPS TO NO HIER THAN LO CHC. GUSTY NW WINDS WITH UNSTABLE LLVL LAPSE
RATES UP TO INVRN BASE NEAR H85 WL ALLOW FOR SOME BLSN MAINLY IN
OPEN AREAS NEAR LK SUP DOWNWIND OF SNOW COVERED ICE THAT HAVE BEEN
PLAGUED BY THESE EVENTS THRU THIS COLD WINTER. BUT SINCE LTL IF ANY
SN WL BE FALLING...SUSPECT THERE WL BE NO SGNFT ISSUES. GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUSLY COLD H85 TEMPS...TENDED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY MIXING TO H85 ON THE GFS FCST
SDNGS. WITH DISTURBANCE STREAKING E TOWARD THE LOWER LKS...NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THE NRN FRINGE OF -SN SHIELD COULD BRUSH THE FAR
SCNTRL LATE IN THE DAY. RETAINED SCHC POPS THERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2014
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS POINT TOWARD A BREAK IN THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED WEST COAST/ERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
PATTERN WHICH HAS CHARACTERIZED MUCH OF OUR RECORD COLD WINTER.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NRN END OF THE WRN RIDGE IS FCST TO CLOSE
OFF AND RETROGRADE TO SIBERIA...ALLOWING PACIFIC FLOW TO STRENGTHEN
INTO THE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS FOR
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
TENDENCY FOR SOME DEGREE OF WRN RIDGING WHICH SHOULD ENSURE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST ACROSS UPPER MI FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF WEEKS OF MARCH. SYNOPTIC PCPN APPEARS TO BE MININAL IN
THIS PATTERN WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN MID TO LATE WEEK AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC AND TRACK E
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS IN A MORE LOWER AMPLITUDE MORE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW. LINGERING COLD AIRMASS FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IN NW FLOW...
BUT GIVEN NEAR 100PCT ICE COVER...LES MAY BE SHUTDOWN THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD.
SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A HIGH PRES RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE SFC
HIGH CENTER OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL ENSURE A
PERIOD OF DRY...BUT STILL VERY COLD WEATHER SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECASTING TEMPS WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MIN TEMPS COULD BE VERY COLD EACH NIGHT (WELL BLO
LOWEST GUIDANCE) UNDER LINGERING BUT GRADUALLY MODERATING ARCTIC AIR
MASS. HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN FRINGE OF DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE S
OF THE AREA MAY LIMIT COOLING SOME SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
COVER MAY NOT BE THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ENSURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY STRATOCU OFF WHAT SHOULD BE A TOTALLY ICE
COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT EACH NIGHT AS
SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES SO WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MIN TEMPS
GENERALLY AT OR BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE SAT NIGHT AND SUN
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WITH MODELS TRENDING
FARTHER SOUTH WITH SHORTWAVE NOW FCST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MIDWEST...CLOUDS MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF A FACTOR AS
PREV THOUGHT SO HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH MIN TEMPS FOR MON
NIGHT...CLOSER TO GEM-NH BIAS CORRECTED VALUES. INCREASINGLY
HIGHER SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR WORKING ON LOWER ALBEDO
FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO FROM FRIGID OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH DAY...THOUGH
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL.
12Z MODELS NOW SHOWING BIGGER DISCREPANCIES FOR MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE GEM-NH AND ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE UKMET
SHOW A SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN FM HUDSON BAY BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH
OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GEM-NH IS DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH
THIS FEATURE THAN THE ECMWF AND EVENTUALLY FORMS A CLOSED LOW BY 12Z
THU OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE
STAYING WELL NE AND NOT IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY...FEEL INCLINED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH THE ECMWF WHICH IS
MORE OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND MORE EXTREME GEM-NH SOLN.
THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE AREA FOR ONE MORE
DAY WITH DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO TEMPS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUE NIGHT
BEFORE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOW A
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE COMING INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FRONT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING IT THROUGH UNTIL LATE THU
NIGHT AND FRI. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE RESULTING
IN 30 TO 40 PCT POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY THU NIGHT INTO FRI. TEMPS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL MODERATE INTO THE 20S AND MAY EVEN
APPROACH 30F AT A FEW SITES ALONG THE WI BORDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY THIS AM AS LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS WANE WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN.
MVFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH SAT MRNG AT IWD/CMX WITH STEADY...
UPSLOPE NW FLOW OF COLDER AIR. EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER LES THAT WOULD
NORMALLY BE A PROBLEM AT THESE LOCATIONS. DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW SHOULD
RESULT IN PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2014
EXPECT S WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS AHEAD OF LO PRES CROSSING LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING TO SHIFT TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT ONCE THE LO
SHIFTS INTO SE ONTARIO AND THEN INCREASE UP TO 25-30 KTS INTO SAT
UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LO AND HI PRES
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FROM THE N PLAINS AND S CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL ENSURE LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB/RJT
MARINE...KC/VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1041 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 817 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2014
Going forecast looks on track. Radar continues to show weak
returns over central and southeast Missouri with high dewpoint
depressions and no precipitation reports on the surface
observations. Will maintain slight chances for rain and snow for
these returns which are being forced by weak moisture convergence
that shows up well in the RAP. RAP also shows that precipitation
now over northwestern MO will continue to move east and reach the
northern CWA after midnight.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 351 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2014
(Tonight)
System currently over the south-central United States and its attendant
precipitation shield is forecast to continue to weaken as it slowly
travels to the north and east. Main impact across our CWFA will be
increasing mid/high level cloudiness. Did keep slow low chc PoPs in case
some light rain showers do hold together over portions of south-central
and southeastern Missouri early this evening. Also kept chc PoPs over
portions of northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois roughly along
arctic baroclinic zone. For temperatures...leaned warmer ahead of boundary
overnight tonight due to expected cloud cover and southerly component to
winds.
Gosselin
.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2014
Saturday through Monday: Upper shortwave ridging moves across the
area tomorrow, ensuring quiet conditions through at least the
morning hours and probably for most of the afternoon as well.
Attention then turns to a potentially high-impact late winter
storm which is expected to bring a veritable cornucopia of
precipitation types to the LSX CWA this weekend, especially from
Saturday night through Sunday night.
The overall thinking remains similar to previous forecast packages:
snow in the north (including KUIN/KHAE), freezing rain in the south
(including KFAM), a band of mixed precip in the middle (including
KCOU, KSTL, KSLO), and a gradual changeover with time from mixed
ptypes to pure snow after colder air moves into the region. The
primary forecast issues are precipitation types and amounts,
although forecasting these details is difficult since neither the
main system nor its leading shortwaves have been sampled by the
upper air network. Regardless, all guidance suggests that the
specific amounts of each precipitation type are far less important
than the cumulative effects of a widespread and prolonged wintry
mix over the region. No changes were made to the ongoing Winter
Storm Watch at this time due to continued uncertainty regarding
precipitation types and amounts.
Atmospheric features that will affect ptypes and amounts during
this event include 1) a sharpening baroclinic zone to the south of
the CWA, 2) an Arctic air mass spreading across the area from the
north, 3) a warm nose aloft associated with a LLJ, 4) several
hours where the maximum lift occurs just below or within the DGZ
in an environment which is saturated WRT ice, and 5) a secondary
DGZ which develops below 5000 ft on Sunday and may re-introduce
ice crystals at low levels. This forecast package reflects a blend
of several models excluding the SREF, which was discounted because
it was much warmer and farther north than any other guidance.
Precipitation will probably begin as snow in the north and rain or
freezing rain farther south, depending on surface temperatures. A
prolonged period of sleet (occasionally mixing with rain, freezing
rain, and/or snow depending on the location) is expected across a
broad part of the CWA. One of the factors contributing to the
prolonged period of sleet is that as the depth of the surface cold
layer gradually increases to 3000-4000 ft, the strength of the
warm nose aloft will become less important since partially or
fully melted snowflakes will have plenty of time and distance to
refreeze into ice pellets. In general, precipitation types should
change from ZR -> ZR/IP -> IP -> IP/SN -> SN. Isolated thunder is
possible on Sunday, which would tend to increase precipitation
rates.
The greatest snow accumulations are expected across northeast
MO/west central IL and the greatest ice accumulations are expected
across southern and southeastern MO into southern IL.
1020-1030 hPa surface high builds into the region on Monday
behind the departing system with unseasonably cold air returning
to the area.
Kanofsky
Tuesday through Friday: Very cold ams in the wake of the weekend
storm will mean more unusually cold early March weather lingering
into Tuesday. All of the latest raw model output and MOS-based
guidance are indicating single digits lows in the offing for the
entire CWA on Tuesday morning, with highs rebounding into the
lower 20s to lower 30s during the afternoon hours.
Heading into the latter half of the week, mean UA flow over the
CONUS takes on a much more zonal look, which should translate into
moderating temperatures. Operational GFS is forecasting a very big
warmup by Thursday, however the ECMWF, GEM, and to a lesser extent
the GFS ensemble keep heights much lower over the northeast U.S.,
which in turn keeps surface ridge entrenched from the Great Lakes
into the mid Mississippi Valley and slows the ewd erosion of the
cold air. Given the snow cover that should be blanketing much of the
region, as well as the cold track record of this winter, have used
with model consensus and gone with a slower warming trend, with
temps finally rebounding to near normal levels by Friday.
Precipitation threat looks fairly low for much of the extended
period. All medium range models to forecast shortwave to pass over
the area Wed-Wed night, but with surface ridge nosing into area
moisture should be modest so have kept PoPs in the slight chance
range for now.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1014 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2014
Low level cloud cover around 3000-6000 ft which has advected into
COU should continue spreading ewd into the rest of the taf sites
around or shortly after 06z Saturday. A cold front extending from
just north of UIN to just southeast of MCI will drop sewd through
UIN and COU just after 06z Saturday, and through the St Louis
metro area around 12z Saturday with the wind veering around to a
n-nwly direction and strengthening after fropa. The cloud ceiling
will lower into the MVFR catagory after fropa as well. A narrow
band of precipitation along this front across nwrn MO will move
through UIN late tgt. This precipitation band may weaken some as
it gets further east, but should lead to a brief period of light
rain/snow in UIN, possibly mixed with sleet. Heavier and more
widespread precipitation should move into the area Saturday evng
as a s-swly low level jet brings strong low-mid level warm air
advection and increasing low level moisture to the region.
Precipitation type is uncertain but should be mainly snow in UIN,
and freezing rain and sleet at the other taf sites. The cloud
ceiling may also lower into the IFR catagory as well.
Specifics for KSTL: S-sely surface winds will veer around to a
swly direction late tgt. The surface wind will continue to veer
around to a n-nwly direction early Saturday mrng after fropa and
strengthen through the day and into Saturday evng. VFR, low level
clouds will advect into STL just after 06z Saturday, and lower
into the MVFR catagory Saturday mrng after fropa. Precipitation
should move into the STL area by late Saturday evng. Precipitation
type is uncertain but will likely be freezing rain and sleet. The
cloud ceiling will lower into the IFR catagory Saturday evng as
well.
GKS
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 351 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2014
Potentially historically cold arctic air is forecast to move into
the region beginning on Sunday and lasting into Tuesday. Several
records are in jeopardy of being broken at our three official
climate sites which can be seen below:
St. Louis, MO (1874-present):
Date Record low Record low maximum
3/2 2 (1980) 19 (1943)
3/3 1 (1943) 19 (2002)
3/4 -1 (1978) 15 (1960)
Columbia, MO (1890-present):
Date Record low Record low maximum
3/2 -5 (1890) 17 (1943)
3/3 1 (1900) 16 (2002)
3/4 -5 (1978) 12 (1960)
Quincy, IL (1901-present):
Date Record low Record low maximum
3/2 -2 (1980) 21 (1960)
3/3 -1 (1913) 14 (2002)
3/4 -8 (1978) 11 (1960)
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Saturday evening through late Sunday
night FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford
MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe
MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-
Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-
St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...WINTER STORM WATCH from Saturday evening through late Sunday
night FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-
Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-
Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St.
Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
600 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
...RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW
IN THE COLDEST START TO MARCH SINCE 2002 AND ONE OF THE COLDEST
STARTS ON RECORD...
ALOFT: MODESTLY SPLIT LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW WAS OVER THE CONUS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING E THRU CO/NM INTO INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW.
THIS TROF WILL HEAD E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE SE STATES
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE WRN USA.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING ONSHORE INTO OR/NRN CA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS TROF WILL MISS THE
REGION FAR TO THE NW...BUT A LOW-AMPLITUDE PV STREAMER WILL MOVE
THRU TOMORROW...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THRU THE RIDGE.
SURFACE: ELONGATED AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRES EXTENDED FROM
WRN CANADA S INTO THE PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL SHRINK AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT...AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TOMORROW. THIS HIGH AND CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY MAJOR ROLES IN
HOW COLD TEMPS GET TONIGHT. BREAKING/SETTING RECORD LOWS IS ON THE
TABLE.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL ENCROACH
FROM THE N OF NEB HWY 92. SOME LIGHT SNOW /-SN/ MAY DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF S-CNTRL NEB. TEMPS DID GET ABOVE THE ALL-TIME RECORD
COLDEST FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFO ON RECORDS.
TONIGHT: UNSEASONABLE BITTER COLD! IF OUR TEMPS WORK OUT AS FCST...
LOWS WILL BE NEARLY 40F COLDER THAN WHERE THEY TYPICALLY ARE FOR
EARLY MARCH /LOW-MID 20S/.
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING CLOUDS.
SOME MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE UPSTREAM OVER WY...BUT THEY
WILL BE MOVING INTO SUBSIDENCE. SO AM NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLEAR...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INFLICT A MAJOR IMPACT
ON TEMPS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS WELL...
RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF CALM OR NEARLY CALM WINDS.
TEMPS: LOWS WERE -13 TO -20 OVER THE DAKOTA`S THIS MORNING. AND
WHILE THERE IS SNOWCOVER UP THERE...MOST OF IT IS A WEEK OLD. THE
OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS AIR MASS. THE 850
MB TEMP WAS -21C AT GRAND ISLAND THIS MORNING. BASED ON REANALYSIS
DATA...-21 AND COLDER HAS ONLY OCCURRED 4 TIMES IN THE PAST 34 YRS.
AND GIVEN THAT TEMPS WILL ONLY BE ABOVE FRZG FOR ABOUT 5 HRS TODAY
ALONG AND N OF HWY 6...I BELIEVE WE NEED TO FCST RECORD COLD.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS OVER MUCH OF S-CNTRL NEB.
LOW TEMPS WERE DROPPED 4-7F FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
A WIND CHILL /WC/ ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA.
FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E...A WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR 1-2 HRS OF
-30 TO -35 WC`S IN THE 6AM-9AM TIMEFRAME. JUST AS TEMPS BOTTOM
OUT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THIS WILL HAPPEN DURING THE
MORNING RUSH.
SNOW: A NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF HAS DEVELOPED ON SATELLITE WITH A
BLOSSOMING AREA OF DEFORMATION -SN OVER WRN KANSAS. THIS HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER N THAN THE 12Z NAM-DERIVED HI-RES MODELS FCST. THE
17Z HRRR HAS IT AND BELIEVE THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A
TOUCH OF -SN OVER PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS...ESPECIALLY FROM
STOCKTON-OSBORNE-BELOIT SOUTHWARD. A CHANCE OF -SN IS NOW IN THE
FCST. THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FCST TO DROP ESE WHICH WILL
ACTUALLY DRAG THE SNOW SHIELD AWAY FROM N-CNTRL KS AS SUNSET
APPROACHES.
TOMORROW: HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE MOVING IN AT DAWN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROF. SO OVERALL EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY AND
BLUSTERY DAY. HOW QUICKLY TEMPS WARM UP IS UNCERTAIN. SO CONFIDENCE
IN THE HOURLY TEMPS IS BELOW AVERAGE.
WENT ABOVE NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE ON WIND SPEEDS. AS A LEE-SIDE TROF
DEVELOPS...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TO 16 MB ACROSS NEB. THE
GFS/EC/NAM/SREF HAVE A 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAX AND BELIEVE WE
WILL TAP INTO THE UNDERSIDE OF IT.
MIXING HEIGHTS ARTIFICIALLY TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM WHICH
HAS ITS SNOWCOVER BIAS. EVEN IF WE USE THE CONSERVATIVE GFS MIXING
HEIGHTS AROUND 2K FT...THAT STILL WOULD ALLOW FOR MIXING DOWN 30
KTS.
HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-4F FROM THE PRIOR GID FCST...ALONG AND W OF
HWY 281.
POST MORTEM: LAST NIGHT`S SNOW RISK OVER CNTRL/NRN KS ENDED UP
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WHAT THE MODELS DEPICTED. THESE TYPE OF
SITUATIONS THAT ARE DRIVEN BY JET STREAK AND FRONTAL FORCING /IN THE
MID-LEVELS/ ARE INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO FCST. THERE IS NO LOW PRES
FROM WHICH WE DERIVE OUR TRADITIONAL FCST CUES. THESE ISOLATED
NARROW SNOW BANDS HAVE VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY. THE HI-RES MESOSCALE
MODELS DEPICT THEM VERY WELL /WHEN AND IF THEY ARE CORRECT/. YOU CAN
THROW OUT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS. THEY CANT HANDLE THESE SMALL
FEATURES AND ARE WAYYYY TO BROAD WITH THEIR QPF. THE BAND DID
DEVELOP BUT IT WAS MODELED TO BECOME STATIONARY ALONG/NEAR I-70
WHICH IT DID NOT. IT WAS TRANSIENT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME FRAME OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS...AS IS TYPICAL SEVERAL
PERIODS HAD HIGH/LOW TEMPS TWEAKED UPWARD OR DOWNWARD AS MUCH AS 2-5
DEGREES...BUT THE OVERALL THEME OF A TRANSITION TO MILDER WEATHER
REMAINS INTACT. THAT BEING SAID...ITS NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO BE A
CASE WHERE EACH DAY GETS PROGRESSIVELY WARMER...AS DAYS SUCH AS
WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY COULD END UP BEING EITHER
SMALL OR POTENTIALLY LARGER BUMPS IN THE ROAD. MEANWHILE...BOTH
THURSDAY AND VERY PRELIMINARILY NEXT SUNDAY BOTH LOOK LIKE THE BEST
CANDIDATES FOR THE MILDEST DAYS OF THE NEXT 7 WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 60S.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...THE MAJORITY OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD SHOULD BE
DRY...BUT 20-30 POPS CONTINUE FOR ALL OR PARTS OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A NEW SLIGHT CHANCE
HAS BEEN ADDED TO NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY DAYTIME...MAKING NOW A
TOTAL OF 4 PERIODS MENTIONING SOME RISK OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN BOTH OF THESE
WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING THE TUES
NIGHT-WED POSSIBILITY. FOR ONLY BEING A FEW DAYS AWAY...ITS STILL
TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER 1) THERE IS EVEN MUCH CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP AT ALL AND HENCE POPS KEPT LOW THUS FAR AND 2) IF PRECIP
DOES FALL...WHAT TYPE WILL IT ASSUME? KEEPING WITH THE REASONING
DISCUSSED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...HAVE KEPT ANY TUES-NIGHT WED PRECIP
TYPE AS SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW...BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SIGNS IN SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET/SOME TYPE OF WINTRY MIX COULD COME INTO PLAY HERE AS WELL.
GIVEN TIME IS STILL ON OUR SIDE HERE WITH THIS POSSIBLE ROUND OF
PRECIP STILL BEING 48+ HOURS AWAY...WILL KEEP THE BASIC TYPES FOR
NOW AND AVOID CLUTTERING THE FORECAST WITH TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
AND/OR CAUSING UNDUE CONCERN AS THE MENTION OF MIXED-PHASE WINTRY
TYPES CAN SOMETIMES DO. AS FOR POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH ANY
TUES NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PRECIP...ITS OBVIOUSLY WAY TOO EARLY TO TALK
SPECIFICS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS WITHIN 72
HOURS OF NOW HAVE TOSSED A VERY GENERIC COVERAGE OF AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1 INCH INTO THE OFFICIAL
SNOWFALL GRIDS. THE SAME SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW PRECIP TYPE ROUTE WAS
USED WITH THE FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT POPS...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE OF A TRUE SNOW EVENT WITH
LESS RISK OF MIXED-TYPES SHOULD IT OCCUR.
GETTING INTO MORE DETAIL AND STARTING WITH MONDAY
NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS UNDER
A BROAD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT THAT DEFINES MUCH OF THE
CONUS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME LOWER STRATUS COULD DEVELOP
AND STREAM NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE CWA IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BUT AM NOT SOLD ON THIS SCENARIO SO SKY COVER IS GENERALLY
AIMED INTO PARTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY BREEZES OF
AT LEAST 5-10 MPH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT
LOW TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY
MORNING BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THESE
VALUES...STILL AIMING FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 9-14 ABOVE ZERO.
FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE OVERALL STORY IN
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS INVOLVES THE GRADUAL EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
DEVELOPMENT OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE
PACIFIC COAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. WITH THE MAIN BATCH OF FORCING
STILL WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY HAVE KEPT IT
DRY...AND EVEN RAISED TEMPS 2-4 DEGREES GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT STARTS TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ZONES
IN THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THAT CLOUDS ARE NOT OVERLY
ABUNDANT...ITS POSSIBLE THAT ADVERTISED HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 30S
NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH...BUT ITS
ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE HIGHS ADVERTISED BY THE LAST FEW NAM
RUNS APPEAR WAY TOO COLD. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES GROW...BUT VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF BRING AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP OF AT LEAST SOME VARIETY
INTO THE AREA BEFORE MOVING IT OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW STRONG THE SYNOPTIC FORCING/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE WITH THIS WAVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AS THAT WILL ULTIMATELY
SPELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LEGITIMATE LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
SUCH AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM AND OTHER MODELS...OR ESSENTIALLY NOTHING
WHATSOEVER AS ADVERTISED BY THE 12Z GEM MODEL. THE PRESENCE OF
PRECIP OR LACK THEREOF WILL ALSO AFFECT HIGHS WED...AND WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING LOW OPTED TO MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS WITH
GENERALLY MID-UPPER 30S.
THURSDAY DAYTIME THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS LOOKS TO FEATURE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BEFORE GIVING WAY TO THE
NEXT POTENTIAL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AS
A RESULT...A BIT OF A TEMPERATURE ROLLER-COASTER STARTS TO DEVELOP.
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW/GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION GOING AHEAD
OF THIS DISTURBANCE ON THURS...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
AWHILE...AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH A RANGE FROM UPPER
40S-UPPER 50S. THEN FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A POTENTIALLY
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA...AND AS
A RESULT FRIDAY HIGHS WERE LOWERED 3-5 DEGREES...BUT STILL UPPER 30S
NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH FOR NOW. AS EARLIER MENTIONED...SLIGHT POPS
MAINLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH COULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW PER THE LATEST
ECMWF BUT LESS-SO THE GFS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND ASSUMING THAT FRIDAY
NIGHT PRECIP MOVES OUT BY SATURDAY DAYTIME...AS THE PATTERN ALOFT
AGAIN TRANSITIONS TO RIDGING. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO SATURDAY HIGHS
WITH A RANGE OF 40S ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF IS
COOLER THAN THIS. VERY PRELIMINARILY...SUNDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE
OUTRIGHT-WARMEST DAY OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST...AND FOR NOW HAVE
WIDESPREAD 50S IN NEB ZONES AND LOW 60S IN KS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
THE NORTH NORTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITHIN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. WIND
WILL TURN LIGHT AND SOUTHEAST BY MORNING...INCREASING MONDAY
MORNING AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE. ONLY SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO GET HIGH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN MARCH. IT HAS ONLY HAPPENED 5 TIMES EVER AT GRAND ISLAND AND
HASTINGS.
VULNERABLE LOW TEMP RECORDS TODAY:
GRAND ISLAND: -5 IN 1960 (TIED)
HASTINGS: -5 IN 1913 (TIED)
* BOTH OF THESE RECORDS CAN BE BROKEN IF TEMPS DROP BELOW -5F
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
VULNERABLE COLDEST DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TODAY:
GRAND ISLAND: 10 IN 2002 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH: 7)
HASTINGS: 11 IN 2002 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH: 7)
VULNERABLE LOW TEMP RECORDS FOR TOMORROW 3/3:
GRAND ISLAND: -16 IN 1960
HASTINGS: -10 IN 1960
ALL-TIME COLDEST HIGH TEMPS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH:
GRAND ISLAND: 4 ON 3/10/1948
HASTINGS: 3 ON 3/11/1948
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-073>076.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ060-072-077-082>087.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1210 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
...WINTER WX ADVISORY CANCELLED...
NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE NEXT 3- 6 HRS. HOWEVER...
THE ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED AS WEBCAMS SHOW NO MORE THAN A
GLORIFIED DUSTING OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. PERIODS OF -SN WILL
CONTINUE AND WE ARE NOTING A HEALTHY BAND OVER THE SANDHILLS
WHICH WAS NAILED BY THE HI-RES NAM-ARW ON YESTERDAY`S SHIFT. THIS
BAND WILL PROBABLY CROSS THE FCST AREA N OF I-80...WITH BRIEF BUT
DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. WE ARE NOTING THEDFORD
DOWN TO 1/4SM AT 18Z.
NONETHELESS...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS BAND WILL LIMIT
ACCUMS.
IF THIS BAND MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WE WILL HANDLE IT WITH AN SPS
/SPECIAL WX STATEMENT/.
WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS AS POSTED FROM 4 AM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOW BLOSSOMING LIGHT SNOW /-SN/ PRIMARILY
WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL DECK OF STRATUS THAT RESIDES WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE /DGZ/. EVEN THOUGH I AM NOT CONFIDENT ALL
AREAS WILL MELT .01" LIQUID EQUIVALENT...POPS WERE INCREASED TO
80% THRU 20Z FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. THIS WAS DONE TO TO FORCE
THE FCST TO BEST DEPICT WHAT WILL PROBABLY CONT THRU THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS NO WAY WE CAN PINPOINT WHERE AND WHEN IT WILL
SNOW. SO FCST WILL NOW READ AS PERIODS OF -SN. AM NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN A GOOD DUSTING HERE AND THERE TO THE S OF I-80.
N OF I-80 THE SAME APPLIES BUT WITH A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR
MODEST ACCUM.
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT UNFOLDS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES WE COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT
OF MORE ROBUST SNOWFALL FOR A TIME...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF S-CNTRL
NEB.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
SENT AN EARLY ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE AS OUR
HOURLY FCST TEMPS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE COLDER THAN REALITY. WE
WILL STILL SEE A SLOW DOWNWARD SLIDE TODAY...BUT CURRENT TEMPS
WERE MERGED WITH THE 11Z HRRR THRU MIDDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
THE FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS IS ON DEVELOPING SNOW...SNOW
AMOUNTS...BITTER COLD TEMPS/WIND CHILLS AND ASSOCIATED WINTER
HEADLINES.
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS HAD SETTLED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH EARLY
MORNING TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SNOW HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING/FALLING ACROSS NW/NORTHERN NEB THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PRE DAWN HOURS WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS 3/4SM AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE MOVING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND IN FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS.
THE SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN BANDS WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS TODAY
OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH OUR NORTHERN CWA ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A DECENT SNOW BAND SHOULD ESTABLISH ACROSS VALLEY AND GREELEY
COUNTIES AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHERE THE BANDS
SET UP. HAVE WENT WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WHERE OUR CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LOUP CITY TO OSCEOLA NEB. FARTHER
SOUTH...AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD BY
MID DAY. HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF IN OUR NW ZONES FIRST AS A 1042MB SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH FM
THE DAKOTAS. NEXT ISSUE IS WHERE A SECOND ROUND/BAND OF SNOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
CROSSES THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 00Z MODELS KEPT THE BRUNT
OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
SWATH OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IN GOOD DYNAMICS/ISENTROPIC
LIFT/JET/FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS STRONGER WAVE. OF CONCERN IS THAT
THE 06Z NAM IS TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND AND CLIPS OUR
SE KS COUNTIES IN A BAND OF POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW. DO NOT WANT TO
JUMP ON ONE MODEL RUN AS TRENDS HAVE BEEN FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BAND...AND SREF SNOW PLUMES DO NOT SUPPORT SNOWFALL AS HIGH AS
LATEST NAM INDICATES IN THIS AREA. FOR SOME LOCATIONS IT COULD BE
AN ALL OR NOTHING TYPE OF EVENT BUT DID INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC KANSAS AND WILL
NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AS IT MOVES INLAND
TODAY.
FOR HEADLINES...AGAIN THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL COVER THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA DOES NOT SUPPORT A WINTER
WX ADVISORY YET...AND ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN KS TONIGHT TO
HOLD OFF ON SNOW HEADLINE IN THIS AREA. NEXT CONCERN IS THE FRIGID
WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THE COUPLE OF NIGHTS...AND WIND CHILLS FOR
TONIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO IN
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RATHER THAN ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREA THAT HAS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
TODAY...WILL GO WITH A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND LOCATIONS
FARTHER SOUTH CAN BE INCLUDED IN A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IF THE
GREATER SNOW REMAINS SOUTH...OR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IF SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
ON THE LARGE SCALE...ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW...WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED WAVE FORECAST OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
SPECIFICALLY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. WEDNESDAY LEFT A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIP...SNOW NORTHEAST AND RAIN SOUTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LIFT BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA AND THIS CYCLOGENESIS WILL FORCE INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION.
SO RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOW END. WE
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR... THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEAR TO BE
DRY...AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AS MENTIONED...WE EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS CURRENTLY ON TOP OF US IS GRADUALLY
MODIFIED AND PUSHED EAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MIX IN WARMER TEMPS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
NOT BRING A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND IT...AS A MATTER
OF FACT...IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF FAST ENOUGH THAT WINDS WILL
QUICKLY REBOUND TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND BRING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
THIS AFTERNOON: VFR IN PERIODS OF -SN EXCEPT TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
IN HEALTHIER SNOW BANDS. THEY WILL BE TRANSIENT. NE WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20 KTS...BUT OVERALL GUSTINESS IS DONE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
TONIGHT: VFR STRATUS CIGS AROUND 5K FT. NNE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
SUN: VFR STRATUS CIGS AROUND 5K FT...BUT COULD BECOME SCT
REVEALING HIGH CLOUDS. NNE WINDS 5-10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
FOLLOWING BELOW IS A RECAP OF THE DAILY RECORD COLDEST HIGH
TEMPS FOR GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS THAT WILL BE IN JEOPARDY
SUNDAY. ITS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT SUNDAY COULD
COME VERY CLOSE TO THE COLDEST MAXIMUM (HIGH) TEMPERATURE ON
RECORD FOR ANY DAY IN MARCH:
THE DAILY RECORDS FOR COLDEST HIGH TEMP STAND AS FOLLOWS:
MARCH 2: GRAND ISLAND...10 IN 2002
HASTINGS...11 IN 2002
MARCH 3: GRAND ISLAND...8 IN 1916
HASTINGS...10 IN 2002
ALL-TIME COLDEST HIGH TEMP ON RECORD FOR ANY DAY IN MARCH:
GRAND ISLAND: 4 DEGREES ON 3-10-1948
HASTINGS: 3 DEGREES ON 3-11-1948
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM 10 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH/HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1000 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOW BLOSSOMING LIGHT SNOW /-SN/ PRIMARILY
WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL DECK OF STRATUS THAT RESIDES WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE /DGZ/. EVEN THOUGH I AM NOT CONFIDENT ALL
AREAS WILL MELT .01" LIQUID EQUIVALENT...POPS WERE INCREASED TO
80% THRU 20Z FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. THIS WAS DONE TO TO FORCE
THE FCST TO BEST DEPICT WHAT WILL PROBABLY CONT THRU THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS NO WAY WE CAN PINPOINT WHERE AND WHEN IT WILL
SNOW. SO FCST WILL NOW READ AS PERIODS OF -SN. AM NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN A GOOD DUSTING HERE AND THERE TO THE S OF I-80.
N OF I-80 THE SAME APPLIES BUT WITH A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR
MODEST ACCUM.
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT UNFOLDS THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES WE COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT
OF MORE ROBUST SNOWFALL FOR A TIME...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF S-CNTRL
NEB.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
SENT AN EARLY ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE AS OUR
HOURLY FCST TEMPS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE COLDER THAN REALITY. WE
WILL STILL SEE A SLOW DOWNWARD SLIDE TODAY...BUT CURRENT TEMPS
WERE MERGED WITH THE 11Z HRRR THRU MIDDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
THE FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS IS ON DEVELOPING SNOW...SNOW
AMOUNTS...BITTER COLD TEMPS/WIND CHILLS AND ASSOCIATED WINTER
HEADLINES.
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS HAD SETTLED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH EARLY
MORNING TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SNOW HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING/FALLING ACROSS NW/NORTHERN NEB THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PRE DAWN HOURS WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS 3/4SM AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE MOVING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND IN FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS.
THE SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN BANDS WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS TODAY
OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH OUR NORTHERN CWA ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A DECENT SNOW BAND SHOULD ESTABLISH ACROSS VALLEY AND GREELEY
COUNTIES AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHERE THE BANDS
SET UP. HAVE WENT WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WHERE OUR CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LOUP CITY TO OSCEOLA NEB. FARTHER
SOUTH...AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD BY
MID DAY. HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF IN OUR NW ZONES FIRST AS A 1042MB SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH FM
THE DAKOTAS. NEXT ISSUE IS WHERE A SECOND ROUND/BAND OF SNOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
CROSSES THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 00Z MODELS KEPT THE BRUNT
OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
SWATH OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IN GOOD DYNAMICS/ISENTROPIC
LIFT/JET/FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS STRONGER WAVE. OF CONCERN IS THAT
THE 06Z NAM IS TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND AND CLIPS OUR
SE KS COUNTIES IN A BAND OF POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW. DO NOT WANT TO
JUMP ON ONE MODEL RUN AS TRENDS HAVE BEEN FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BAND...AND SREF SNOW PLUMES DO NOT SUPPORT SNOWFALL AS HIGH AS
LATEST NAM INDICATES IN THIS AREA. FOR SOME LOCATIONS IT COULD BE
AN ALL OR NOTHING TYPE OF EVENT BUT DID INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC KANSAS AND WILL
NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AS IT MOVES INLAND
TODAY.
FOR HEADLINES...AGAIN THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL COVER THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA DOES NOT SUPPORT A WINTER
WX ADVISORY YET...AND ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN KS TONIGHT TO
HOLD OFF ON SNOW HEADLINE IN THIS AREA. NEXT CONCERN IS THE FRIGID
WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THE COUPLE OF NIGHTS...AND WIND CHILLS FOR
TONIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO IN
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RATHER THAN ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREA THAT HAS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
TODAY...WILL GO WITH A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND LOCATIONS
FARTHER SOUTH CAN BE INCLUDED IN A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IF THE
GREATER SNOW REMAINS SOUTH...OR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IF SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
ON THE LARGE SCALE...ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW...WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED WAVE FORECAST OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
SPECIFICALLY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. WEDNESDAY LEFT A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIP...SNOW NORTHEAST AND RAIN SOUTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LIFT BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA AND THIS CYCLOGENESIS WILL FORCE INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION.
SO RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOW END. WE
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR... THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEAR TO BE
DRY...AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AS MENTIONED...WE EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS CURRENTLY ON TOP OF US IS GRADUALLY
MODIFIED AND PUSHED EAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MIX IN WARMER TEMPS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
NOT BRING A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND IT...AS A MATTER
OF FACT...IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF FAST ENOUGH THAT WINDS WILL
QUICKLY REBOUND TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND BRING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
TIMING OF SNOW AND LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS REMAINS THE MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR KGRI. SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
ALL NIGHT AND SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE SNOW WILL
REACH KGRI AROUND MID DAY. KGRI WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
HEAVIER SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH AND SNOW SHOULD BE INTERMITTENT
DEPENDING ON WHERE SNOW BANDS SET UP. AT THE ONSET OF THE PCPN
HAVE LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS/DRYING
OUT TONIGHT AS SNOW BAND SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
FOLLOWING BELOW IS A RECAP OF THE DAILY RECORD COLDEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS THAT WILL BE IN
JEOPARDY SUNDAY. ITS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT
SUNDAY COULD COME VERY CLOSE TO THE COLDEST MAXIMUM (HIGH)
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR ANY DAY IN MARCH:
THE DAILY RECORDS FOR COLDEST MAX TEMP STAND AS FOLLOWS:
- MARCH 2: GRAND ISLAND...10 IN 2002
HASTINGS...11 IN 2002
- MARCH 3: GRAND ISLAND...8 IN 1916
HASTINGS...10 IN 2002
THE COLDEST MAX TEMP ON RECORD FOR ANY DAY IN MARCH:
- GRAND ISLAND: 4 DEGREES ON 3-10-1948
- HASTINGS: 3 DEGREES ON 3-11-1948
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049.
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...FAY
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH/HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
742 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 742 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
SENT AN EARLY ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE AS OUR
HOURLY FCST TEMPS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE COLDER THAN REALITY. WE
WILL STILL SEE A SLOW DOWNWARD SLIDE TODAY...BUT CURRENT TEMPS
WERE MERGED WITH THE 11Z HRRR THRU MIDDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
THE FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS IS ON DEVELOPING SNOW...SNOW
AMOUNTS...BITTER COLD TEMPS/WIND CHILLS AND ASSOCIATED WINTER
HEADLINES.
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS HAD SETTLED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH EARLY
MORNING TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SNOW HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING/FALLING ACROSS NW/NORTHERN NEB THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PRE DAWN HOURS WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS 3/4SM AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE MOVING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND IN FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS.
THE SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN BANDS WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS TODAY
OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH OUR NORTHERN CWA ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT A DECENT SNOW BAND SHOULD ESTABLISH ACROSS VALLEY AND GREELEY
COUNTIES AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHERE THE BANDS
SET UP. HAVE WENT WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WHERE OUR CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LOUP CITY TO OSCEOLA NEB. FARTHER
SOUTH...AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD BY
MID DAY. HEADING INTO THE EVENING...THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF IN OUR NW ZONES FIRST AS A 1042MB SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH FM
THE DAKOTAS. NEXT ISSUE IS WHERE A SECOND ROUND/BAND OF SNOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
CROSSES THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 00Z MODELS KEPT THE BRUNT
OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
SWATH OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IN GOOD DYNAMICS/ISENTROPIC
LIFT/JET/FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS STRONGER WAVE. OF CONCERN IS THAT
THE 06Z NAM IS TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND AND CLIPS OUR
SE KS COUNTIES IN A BAND OF POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW. DO NOT WANT TO
JUMP ON ONE MODEL RUN AS TRENDS HAVE BEEN FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BAND...AND SREF SNOW PLUMES DO NOT SUPPORT SNOWFALL AS HIGH AS
LATEST NAM INDICATES IN THIS AREA. FOR SOME LOCATIONS IT COULD BE
AN ALL OR NOTHING TYPE OF EVENT BUT DID INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC KANSAS AND WILL
NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AS IT MOVES INLAND
TODAY.
FOR HEADLINES...AGAIN THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL COVER THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. CURRENT SNOWFALL
FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA DOES NOT SUPPORT A WINTER
WX ADVISORY YET...AND ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN KS TONIGHT TO
HOLD OFF ON SNOW HEADLINE IN THIS AREA. NEXT CONCERN IS THE FRIGID
WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THE COUPLE OF NIGHTS...AND WIND CHILLS FOR
TONIGHT/SATURDAY NGIHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO IN
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RATHER THAN ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREA THAT HAS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
TODAY...WILL GO WITH A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND LOCATIONS
FARTHER SOUTH CAN BE INCLUDED IN A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IF THE
GREATER SNOW REMAINS SOUTH...OR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IF SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
ON THE LARGE SCALE...ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW...WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED WAV FORECAST OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
SPECIFICALLY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. WEDNESDAY LEFT A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIP...SNOW NORTHEAST AND RAIN SOUTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LIFT BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMTED AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA AND THIS CYCLOGENISIS WILL FORCE INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION.
SO RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOW END. WE
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR... THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEAR TO BE
DRY...AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND APPROCHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AS MENTIONED...WE EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS CURRENTLY ON TOP OF US IS GRADUALLY
MODIFIED AND PUSHED EAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MIX IN WARMER TEMPS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
NOT BRING A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND IT...AS A MATTER
OF FACT...IT IS FORECASTTOMOVE OFF FAST ENOUGH THAT WINDS WILL
QUICKLY REBOUND TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND BRING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
TIMING OF SNOW AND LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS REMAINS THE MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR KGRI. SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
ALL NIGHT AND SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE SNOW WILL
REACH KGRI AROUND MID DAY. KGRI WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
HEAVIER SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH AND SNOW SHOULD BE INTERMITTENT
DEPENDING ON WHERE SNOW BANDS SET UP. AT THE ONSET OF THE PCPN
HAVE LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS/DRYING
OUT TONIGHT AS SNOW BAND SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 359 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
FOLLOWING BELOW IS A RECAP OF THE DAILY RECORD COLDEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS THAT WILL BE IN
JEOPARDY SUNDAY. ITS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT
SUNDAY COULD COME VERY CLOSE TO THE COLDEST MAXIMUM (HIGH)
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR ANY DAY IN MARCH:
THE DAILY RECORDS FOR COLDEST MAX TEMP STAND AS FOLLOWS:
- MARCH 2: GRAND ISLAND...10 IN 2002
HASTINGS...11 IN 2002
- MARCH 3: GRAND ISLAND...8 IN 1916
HASTINGS...10 IN 2002
THE COLDEST MAX TEMP ON RECORD FOR ANY DAY IN MARCH:
- GRAND ISLAND: 4 DEGREES ON 3-10-1948
- HASTINGS: 3 DEGREES ON 3-11-1948
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049.
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...FAY
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH/HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1115 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING OUT OF THE FA WITH A
LINGERING FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH ABOUT 03Z FAR SERN
COUNTIES...WITH A FEW TRAILING FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS AN HR OR SO
LONGER. THIS WAS HANDLED WITH UPDATE A BIT AGO. OTHERWISE 18Z AND
LATEST SHORT-TERM HRRR MODELS SUGGESTED THE ONSET OF THE NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER. THUS PUSHED BACK START TIME OF
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 3 TO 6 HRS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
WHAT A WAY TO START THE MONTH OF MARCH...SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SMASH LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE DATES.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THE ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AT 20Z WITH RADAR SHOWING A
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP OVER EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIP TO BE EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA AS THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS IN THE LOW LEVELS BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT NEAR
THE NEBRASKA SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND SPREAD EAST INTO NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND OF SNOW PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO KANSAS
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE STRONGER FORCING IS
INDICATED ALONG THE 850MB FRONT. EXPECT SNOW RATIOS TO BE RATHER
HIGH WITH THIS EVENT DUE TO THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR SO SNOWFALL IN
THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH ISOLATED 6+ IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE
MAJORITY OF SNOWFALL FOR THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT. SNOW MAY LINGER OVER THE FAR SOUTH INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH THE ADDITION OF FRESH SNOW COVER...RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES
LOOK LIKELY WITH FORECAST HIGHS WELL BELOW CURRENT RECORD LOW
MAXIMUMS AT ALL THREE CLIMATE STATIONS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
RECORD LOW MINIMUMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT SEVERAL SITES.
WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TO REPLACE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES AFTER THEIR EXPIRATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WORKS SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND MEAGER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT WITH LOWS STAYING ABOVE
ZERO...NOWHERE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WE BEGIN
A GRADUAL WARM-UP AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FINALLY RISE ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS. THIS WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING 10 CELSIUS BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THIS AMOUNT OF WARMTH...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 50 DEGREES THURSDAY AND MAYBE EVEN FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION-WISE THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY. A COUPLE DIFFERENT
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSLATE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES ONLY
POINT TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE
WE ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATES. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER ENTERS THE PICTURE. AT THIS TIME MODEL
GUIDANCES POINTS TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO NERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS KLNK/KOMA SITES BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A
TEMPO GROUP WITH VSBYS BELOW 1SM WAS CARRIED AT EACH SITE DURING
THE WINDOW WHEN BEST FORCING WAS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE LOWEST
CONDITIONS. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE PREVAILING CIGS/VSBYS DURING
MUCH OF THE EVENT. THERE IS SOME CHANCE PREVAILING CONDITIONS
COULD BE A BIT BETTER THAN 06Z FORECAST INDICATED...BUT ALSO
NEARLY EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE POOREST CONDITIONS COULD LAST
LONGER AS WELL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 305 PM FRI FEB 28 2014
COLD MAX TEMP AND RECORD MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS
IN MARCH. ASTERISK VALUES INDICATE POTENTIAL BROKEN RECORDS BASED
ON CURRENT FORECAST.
3/1 3/2 3/3
OMAHA 12*/-9 13*/-4* 10*/-5*
LINCOLN 16*/-6 14*/-7 10/-10
NORFOLK 11*/-11 10*/-15* 6/-10*
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR NEZ034-043>045-050>053-065>067-078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR NEZ068-088>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR IAZ090-091.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHERMOK
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...PEARSON
AVIATION...CHERMOK
CLIMATE...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
328 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW DOWN TO NEAR 6000 FEET TONIGHT BEFORE MIXING WITH RAIN
AGAIN SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. STRONG WINDS OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. A
POTENT COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY...
LEAVING BEHIND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH AS A COUPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE STATE. PERIODIC BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT THE PLAINS AND PATCHY CLOUD COVER WITH EVEN A FEW SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT THE HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A WELCOME SITE IT IS AS A DEEP FETCH OF RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN
SNOW IMPACTS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL
SHOWS THE CORE OF A WELL-DEFINED STORM SYSTEM CRASHING ONSHORE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A MASSIVE FETCH OF MOIST SW FLOW SHIFTING
INTO AZ AND NM. CIRA TOTAL PWAT VALUES ARE ABOVE 200PCT OF NORMAL IN
THIS PLUME AND IT WILL SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER NM THRU THIS EVENING. SFC
AND MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE TRENDING DOWN WITH THE AID OF EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING AND SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. SNOW REPORTS SO FAR RANGE
FROM ABOUT 1 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 7500 FT. THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTION
AGREES THE CURRENT PLUME WILL SHIFT SE OVER CENTRAL NM THRU THIS
EVENING THEN INTO SOUTHERN NM LATE TONIGHT.
A SECONDARY VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER COLD CORE WILL SHIFT
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...DELIVERING A SECONDARY
PEAK IN PRECIP COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THIS SECONDARY PRECIP
MAX. HOWEVER...BASED ON TREND OF LATEST HRRR AFTER 06Z CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WILL VERIFY THIS MAX ALONG
THE I-40/CONT DVD CORRIDOR INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN MTS LATE TONIGHT.
THE NE PLAINS WILL BE A TRICKY AREA AS WELL WITH SOME INCREDIBLE
SPATIAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ON THE LATEST 21Z OBS. THE FRONT HAS
PUSHED THROUGH TRINIDAD WHERE THE TEMP IS 21F WHILE RATON IS WINDY
WITH A TEMP OF 61F! MODELS ARE TRENDING THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY SO EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF ADVISORY SOUTH AND WEST. FOR THIS UPDATE
WILL EXPAND ADVISORY INTO RATON RIDGE ZONE. MODEL PROFILES OVER
THE NE SUGGEST A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW THRU AT
LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MID LEVEL COLDER AIR SLIDES OVER
AND CHANGES ALL ACTIVITY TO SNOW.
BEYOND SUNDAY...THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN WEST TO NW
FLOW THAT WILL SLIDE QUICKLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WHILE WINDS ARE PERIODICALLY BREEZY OUT
EAST. A FEW PERIODS OF THICK CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST PACIFIC TROUGH TO GRADUALLY CROSS THIS WEEKEND WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS HAVE
ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF BEGINNING A DOWNWARD TREND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT. A BAND OF MAINLY WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION OF NW NM...BRINGING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THAT AREA. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION LEVEL MAY ONLY DROP TO ABOUT 7000 FEET TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL REALLY BENEFIT FROM THE DWELL
TIME OF ALL THIS MOISTURE WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED IN ALL NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH NEARLY 20
INCHES.
A SECONDARY LOCATION FAVORED FOR ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND QUAY COUNTY...WHERE A POTENT BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIFT AS THE MOIST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH SLEET AND EVEN SOME
FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST
AREAS WILL FALL 35 TO 40 DEGREES SUNDAY FROM TODAYS READINGS LEAVING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S.
STRONG WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REBOUND THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A
NOTABLE EXCEPTION BEING SOME COOLER READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING
VERY WELL ON A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THIS WINTER...THE ECMWF IS DEEPER/WETTER/SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IS
SHALLOWER/DRIER/FASTER. GRIDS ARE ALIGNED WITH THE GFS SOLUTION FOR
NOW.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY QUICKLY TRANSITION TO GUSTY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BE OUR NEXT DAY WITH WIND AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FORECAST GRIDS CURRENTLY SHOW THE TYPICAL PATCH OF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AROUND CLINES CORNERS
AND SANTA ROSA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK FROM 3 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY.
VENTILATION-WISE...WATCH FOR POOR READINGS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW...SUNDAY.
ALSO...IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM...AREAS OF POOR
VENTILATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE
NORTHWESTWARD TO GALLUP AND FARMINGTON. FURTHER...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH COOL AND SETTLED AIR
FOR AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WEDNESDAY.
44
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW ALONG AND W OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
TODAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF/LCL IFR CONDITIONS. SPOTTIER RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FARTHER E...EXCEPT DRY ALONG/E OF A LINE FROM
KROW TO KCVN. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD LOWER TO NEAR 8500 FEET DURING THE
AFTN W OF THE RIO GRANDE. SNOW LEVEL WILL KEEP DROPPING
TONIGHT...REACHING NEAR 6000 FT BY MORNING. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NE/E CENTRAL AREAS WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND POSSIBLY
-FZRA FM KTCC N TO THE CO BORDER. THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW ACROSS NE/E CENTRAL AREAS AFT SUNRISE.
44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 34 50 27 57 / 70 30 0 5
DULCE........................... 30 43 19 53 / 100 40 10 5
CUBA............................ 32 44 24 53 / 100 60 10 5
GALLUP.......................... 31 47 23 56 / 70 40 5 5
EL MORRO........................ 29 42 22 49 / 70 60 5 5
GRANTS.......................... 31 47 22 56 / 60 50 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 32 45 28 52 / 70 60 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 38 56 24 63 / 90 30 0 5
CHAMA........................... 25 37 15 45 / 100 50 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 32 45 32 51 / 90 70 10 5
PECOS........................... 31 45 24 48 / 80 70 10 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 27 41 16 51 / 80 60 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 23 32 17 40 / 90 70 20 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 27 39 19 45 / 80 70 10 5
TAOS............................ 31 44 22 53 / 70 60 10 5
MORA............................ 31 43 21 50 / 80 70 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 32 49 25 56 / 70 50 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 32 45 27 51 / 80 70 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 34 48 28 55 / 70 60 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 35 52 34 58 / 70 60 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 39 55 34 59 / 60 60 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 42 56 29 61 / 60 50 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 40 55 32 62 / 60 50 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 44 58 26 62 / 60 50 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 39 54 31 61 / 60 50 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 43 60 36 64 / 60 30 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 34 52 32 57 / 90 70 10 5
TIJERAS......................... 36 50 36 55 / 80 70 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 34 52 28 54 / 80 70 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 34 49 26 52 / 80 80 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 37 55 31 54 / 90 50 5 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 40 55 32 58 / 90 50 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 37 53 34 52 / 90 60 5 5
CAPULIN......................... 31 39 17 50 / 60 70 10 5
RATON........................... 30 45 18 56 / 50 60 10 5
SPRINGER........................ 31 47 19 57 / 40 60 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 32 45 21 54 / 70 60 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 18 25 14 49 / 60 60 5 5
ROY............................. 34 37 17 50 / 60 60 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 38 43 20 55 / 60 60 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 42 53 22 55 / 60 60 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 34 37 17 53 / 60 60 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 40 45 16 50 / 50 60 5 0
PORTALES........................ 42 47 18 51 / 50 60 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 43 55 22 51 / 50 60 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 48 67 26 51 / 50 30 0 0
PICACHO......................... 43 61 26 53 / 50 40 5 0
ELK............................. 45 58 30 51 / 50 50 5 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ502-508-510>515.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ521>524-526-528-529-532>537-539-540.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ527-528-530-531-534.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ503-504-506-516.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ505-507.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ521-526.
&&
$$
CORRECTED START TIME OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST
ZONES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
303 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW DOWN TO NEAR 6000 FEET TONIGHT BEFORE MIXING WITH RAIN
AGAIN SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. STRONG WINDS OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. A
POTENT COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY...
LEAVING BEHIND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH AS A COUPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE STATE. PERIODIC BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT THE PLAINS AND PATCHY CLOUD COVER WITH EVEN A FEW SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT THE HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A WELCOME SITE IT IS AS A DEEP FETCH OF RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN
SNOW IMPACTS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL
SHOWS THE CORE OF A WELL-DEFINED STORM SYSTEM CRASHING ONSHORE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A MASSIVE FETCH OF MOIST SW FLOW SHIFTING
INTO AZ AND NM. CIRA TOTAL PWAT VALUES ARE ABOVE 200PCT OF NORMAL IN
THIS PLUME AND IT WILL SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER NM THRU THIS EVENING. SFC
AND MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE TRENDING DOWN WITH THE AID OF EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING AND SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. SNOW REPORTS SO FAR RANGE
FROM ABOUT 1 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 7500 FT. THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTION
AGREES THE CURRENT PLUME WILL SHIFT SE OVER CENTRAL NM THRU THIS
EVENING THEN INTO SOUTHERN NM LATE TONIGHT.
A SECONDARY VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER COLD CORE WILL SHIFT
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...DELIVERING A SECONDARY
PEAK IN PRECIP COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THIS SECONDARY PRECIP
MAX. HOWEVER...BASED ON TREND OF LATEST HRRR AFTER 06Z CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WILL VERIFY THIS MAX ALONG
THE I-40/CONT DVD CORRIDOR INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN MTS LATE TONIGHT.
THE NE PLAINS WILL BE A TRICKY AREA AS WELL WITH SOME INCREDIBLE
SPATIAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ON THE LATEST 21Z OBS. THE FRONT HAS
PUSHED THROUGH TRINIDAD WHERE THE TEMP IS 21F WHILE RATON IS WINDY
WITH A TEMP OF 61F! MODELS ARE TRENDING THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY SO EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF ADVISORY SOUTH AND WEST. FOR THIS UPDATE
WILL EXPAND ADVISORY INTO RATON RIDGE ZONE. MODEL PROFILES OVER
THE NE SUGGEST A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW THRU AT
LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MID LEVEL COLDER AIR SLIDES OVER
AND CHANGES ALL ACTIVITY TO SNOW.
BEYOND SUNDAY...THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN WEST TO NW
FLOW THAT WILL SLIDE QUICKLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WHILE WINDS ARE PERIODICALLY BREEZY OUT
EAST. A FEW PERIODS OF THICK CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST PACIFIC TROUGH TO GRADUALLY CROSS THIS WEEKEND WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS HAVE
ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF BEGINNING A DOWNWARD TREND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT. A BAND OF MAINLY WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION OF NW NM...BRINGING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THAT AREA. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION LEVEL MAY ONLY DROP TO ABOUT 7000 FEET TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL REALLY BENEFIT FROM THE DWELL
TIME OF ALL THIS MOISTURE WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED IN ALL NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH NEARLY 20
INCHES.
A SECONDARY LOCATION FAVORED FOR ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND QUAY COUNTY...WHERE A POTENT BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIFT AS THE MOIST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH SLEET AND EVEN SOME
FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST
AREAS WILL FALL 35 TO 40 DEGREES SUNDAY FROM TODAYS READINGS LEAVING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S.
STRONG WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REBOUND THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A
NOTABLE EXCEPTION BEING SOME COOLER READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING
VERY WELL ON A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THIS WINTER...THE ECMWF IS DEEPER/WETTER/SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IS
SHALLOWER/DRIER/FASTER. GRIDS ARE ALIGNED WITH THE GFS SOLUTION FOR
NOW.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY QUICKLY TRANSITION TO GUSTY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BE OUR NEXT DAY WITH WIND AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FORECAST GRIDS CURRENTLY SHOW THE TYPICAL PATCH OF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AROUND CLINES CORNERS
AND SANTA ROSA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK FROM 3 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY.
VENTILATION-WISE...WATCH FOR POOR READINGS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW...SUNDAY.
ALSO...IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM...AREAS OF POOR
VENTILATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE
NORTHWESTWARD TO GALLUP AND FARMINGTON. FURTHER...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH COOL AND SETTLED AIR
FOR AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WEDNESDAY.
44
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW ALONG AND W OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
TODAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF/LCL IFR CONDITIONS. SPOTTIER RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FARTHER E...EXCEPT DRY ALONG/E OF A LINE FROM
KROW TO KCVN. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD LOWER TO NEAR 8500 FEET DURING THE
AFTN W OF THE RIO GRANDE. SNOW LEVEL WILL KEEP DROPPING
TONIGHT...REACHING NEAR 6000 FT BY MORNING. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NE/E CENTRAL AREAS WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND POSSIBLY
-FZRA FM KTCC N TO THE CO BORDER. THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW ACROSS NE/E CENTRAL AREAS AFT SUNRISE.
44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 34 50 27 57 / 70 30 0 5
DULCE........................... 30 43 19 53 / 100 40 10 5
CUBA............................ 32 44 24 53 / 100 60 10 5
GALLUP.......................... 31 47 23 56 / 70 40 5 5
EL MORRO........................ 29 42 22 49 / 70 60 5 5
GRANTS.......................... 31 47 22 56 / 60 50 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 32 45 28 52 / 70 60 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 38 56 24 63 / 90 30 0 5
CHAMA........................... 25 37 15 45 / 100 50 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 32 45 32 51 / 90 70 10 5
PECOS........................... 31 45 24 48 / 80 70 10 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 27 41 16 51 / 80 60 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 23 32 17 40 / 90 70 20 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 27 39 19 45 / 80 70 10 5
TAOS............................ 31 44 22 53 / 70 60 10 5
MORA............................ 31 43 21 50 / 80 70 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 32 49 25 56 / 70 50 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 32 45 27 51 / 80 70 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 34 48 28 55 / 70 60 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 35 52 34 58 / 70 60 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 39 55 34 59 / 60 60 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 42 56 29 61 / 60 50 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 40 55 32 62 / 60 50 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 44 58 26 62 / 60 50 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 39 54 31 61 / 60 50 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 43 60 36 64 / 60 30 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 34 52 32 57 / 90 70 10 5
TIJERAS......................... 36 50 36 55 / 80 70 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 34 52 28 54 / 80 70 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 34 49 26 52 / 80 80 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 37 55 31 54 / 90 50 5 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 40 55 32 58 / 90 50 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 37 53 34 52 / 90 60 5 5
CAPULIN......................... 31 39 17 50 / 60 70 10 5
RATON........................... 30 45 18 56 / 50 60 10 5
SPRINGER........................ 31 47 19 57 / 40 60 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 32 45 21 54 / 70 60 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 18 25 14 49 / 60 60 5 5
ROY............................. 34 37 17 50 / 60 60 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 38 43 20 55 / 60 60 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 42 53 22 55 / 60 60 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 34 37 17 53 / 60 60 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 40 45 16 50 / 50 60 5 0
PORTALES........................ 42 47 18 51 / 50 60 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 43 55 22 51 / 50 60 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 48 67 26 51 / 50 30 0 0
PICACHO......................... 43 61 26 53 / 50 40 5 0
ELK............................. 45 58 30 51 / 50 50 5 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ502-508-510>515.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ521>524-526-528-529-532>537-539-540.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ527-528-530-531-534.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ503-504-506-516.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ505-507.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ521-526.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
101 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
TEMPS ARE FINALLY RISING A LITTLE BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY
LOCATION WILL GET ABOVE ZERO. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHICH HAS THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW. STILL
SEEING THE MOST CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH A LOT OF SUN IN
THE NORTH. NOT PLANNING ON ANY CHANGES FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD. 00Z MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.
TODAY...A VERY COLD AIRMASS WITH 925MB TEMPS -30C TO -32C WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH -10F TO -15F MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER...BUT STILL 5-10 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH WE LIKELY WILL NEED TO
EXTEND THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WILL PASS THIS DUTY TO THE DAY SHIFT. THERE IS AN AREA
OF CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MANITOBA ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER JET STREAK. RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY (AND ADDED FLURRIES).
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF. THIS
SHOULD END WIND CHILL HEADLINES BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
BECOME CALM. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY...BUT
STILL BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE FROM THE PAC NW APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT MOST GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOMETHING LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SNOW AMTS APPEAR TOWARD THE LIGHTER SIDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND (BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL
VALUES).
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN IS SPLIT WITH ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE STATES. LONG WAVE UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG
WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA.
THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH WED. THEN THE GFS WAS
SLOWER WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR THU AND
FRI. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED
SLOWER. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
WILL KEEP YESTERDAY POPS FOR TUE. WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS IN THE
WEST FOR TUE NIGHT. WILL EXPAND POPS FARTHER WEST ON WED NIGHT. WILL
TRIM BACK POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR THU NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED 3 TO 4 DEGREES FOR THU...A DEGREE OR SO
FOR WED AND FRI AND NO CHANGE TO THU FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
GOOD FLYING WEATHER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COLD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ038-039-049-052-
053.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-054.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ003-024-027>032-
040.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ001-002-004>009-
013>017-022-023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
944 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
LOTS OF SUN TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. MAIN
QUESTION TODAY IS HOW MUCH TEMP RECOVERY CAN OCCUR WITH EARLY
MARCH SUN UNDER AN AIRMASS THAT STAYS BELOW -30C AT 925MB THRU THE
DAY. TEMPS HAVE SHOWN VERY LITTLE SIGN OF RISING YET BUT WILL HAVE
TO WATCH A WHILE LONGER TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS. FOR NOW WILL EXTEND
THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES PAST 18Z TODAY INTO 18Z SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS MAY RISE BRIEFLY OUT OF WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTH
BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP BACK INTO THEM BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD. 00Z MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.
TODAY...A VERY COLD AIRMASS WITH 925MB TEMPS -30C TO -32C WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH -10F TO -15F MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER...BUT STILL 5-10 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH WE LIKELY WILL NEED TO
EXTEND THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WILL PASS THIS DUTY TO THE DAY SHIFT. THERE IS AN AREA
OF CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MANITOBA ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER JET STREAK. RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY (AND ADDED FLURRIES).
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF. THIS
SHOULD END WIND CHILL HEADLINES BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
BECOME CALM. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY...BUT
STILL BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE FROM THE PAC NW APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT MOST GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOMETHING LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SNOW AMTS APPEAR TOWARD THE LIGHTER SIDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND (BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL
VALUES).
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN IS SPLIT WITH ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE STATES. LONG WAVE UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG
WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA.
THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH WED. THEN THE GFS WAS
SLOWER WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR THU AND
FRI. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED
SLOWER. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
WILL KEEP YESTERDAY POPS FOR TUE. WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS IN THE
WEST FOR TUE NIGHT. WILL EXPAND POPS FARTHER WEST ON WED NIGHT. WILL
TRIM BACK POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR THU NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED 3 TO 4 DEGREES FOR THU...A DEGREE OR SO
FOR WED AND FRI AND NO CHANGE TO THU FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. COULD BE
SCATTERED VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY FLURRIES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ038-039-
049-052-053.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-054.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ003-024-
027>032-040.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001-002-
004>009-013>017-022-023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
625 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD. 00Z MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.
TODAY...A VERY COLD AIRMASS WITH 925MB TEMPS -30C TO -32C WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH -10F TO -15F MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER...BUT STILL 5-10 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH WE LIKELY WILL NEED TO
EXTEND THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WILL PASS THIS DUTY TO THE DAY SHIFT. THERE IS AN AREA
OF CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MANITOBA ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER JET STREAK. RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY (AND ADDED FLURRIES).
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF. THIS
SHOULD END WIND CHILL HEADLINES BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
BECOME CALM. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY...BUT
STILL BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE FROM THE PAC NW APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT MOST GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOMETHING LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SNOW AMTS APPEAR TOWARD THE LIGHTER SIDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND (BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL
VALUES).
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN IS SPLIT WITH ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE STATES. LONG WAVE UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG
WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA.
THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH WED. THEN THE GFS WAS
SLOWER WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR THU AND
FRI. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED
SLOWER. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
WILL KEEP YESTERDAY POPS FOR TUE. WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS IN THE
WEST FOR TUE NIGHT. WILL EXPAND POPS FARTHER WEST ON WED NIGHT. WILL
TRIM BACK POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR THU NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED 3 TO 4 DEGREES FOR THU...A DEGREE OR SO
FOR WED AND FRI AND NO CHANGE TO THU FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. COULD BE
SCATTERED VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY FLURRIES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ038-039-
049-052-053.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-054.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ003-024-
027>032-040.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001-002-
004>009-013>017-022-023.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD. 00Z MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.
TODAY...A VERY COLD AIRMASS WITH 925MB TEMPS -30C TO -32C WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH -10F TO -15F MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER...BUT STILL 5-10 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH WE LIKELY WILL NEED TO
EXTEND THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WILL PASS THIS DUTY TO THE DAY SHIFT. THERE IS AN AREA
OF CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MANITOBA ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER JET STREAK. RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY (AND ADDED FLURRIES).
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF. THIS
SHOULD END WIND CHILL HEADLINES BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
BECOME CALM. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY...BUT
STILL BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE FROM THE PAC NW APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT MOST GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOMETHING LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SNOW AMTS APPEAR TOWARD THE LIGHTER SIDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND (BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL
VALUES).
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN IS SPLIT WITH ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE STATES. LONG WAVE UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG
WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA.
THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH WED. THEN THE GFS WAS
SLOWER WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR THU AND
FRI. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED
SLOWER. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
WILL KEEP YESTERDAY POPS FOR TUE. WILL KEEP YESTERDAYS POPS IN THE
WEST FOR TUE NIGHT. WILL EXPAND POPS FARTHER WEST ON WED NIGHT. WILL
TRIM BACK POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR THU NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED 3 TO 4 DEGREES FOR THU...A DEGREE OR SO
FOR WED AND FRI AND NO CHANGE TO THU FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINDS SLOWLY SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BAND OF VFR CIGS IN CANADA THAT
COULD MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT MODELS DISSIPATE THESE CLOUDS
AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED THEM BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ038-039-
049-052-053.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-054.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ003-024-
027>032-040.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001-002-
004>009-013>017-022-023.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
937 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THE DRY SLOT
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW HAS EFFECTIVELY ENDED SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING REPORTED
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DESPITE THE LACK
OF RADAR ECHOES. FARTHER NORTH... THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WITH
SOME RECENT REDEVELOPMENT OBSERVED IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MAY
STILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
UNDERNEATH THE PIVOT POINT OF THE PRECIPITATION BANDS IN THE
NORTH. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WARNING IN PLACE IN THE NORTH AT THIS
TIME /ALTHOUGH WE HAD WHITTLED AWAY AT THE HEADLINES EARLIER THIS
EVENING/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
AVIATION...
THE LAST BAND OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL MOVE EAST OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE
MORNING MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A MULTI-FACETED WINTER WEATHER MESS CONTINUES TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. WV SATELLITE SHOWS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DEEPENING ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WITH
WELL PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ENTERING WRN OK...AND AREA OF
DEFORMATION/BANDED SNOW OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. AHEAD OF THIS
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR...SCT SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTAINING HAIL CONTINUE. INSTABILITY REMAINS
TOO MARGINAL FOR SEVERE HAIL...BUT SEVERAL REPORTS OF DIMES AND
NICKELS HAVE COME IN. EXPECT THE LIKLIHOOD OF HAIL TO WANE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT HEAVY SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOOMERS
THAT HAPPEN TO AFFECT YOUR LOCATION. IN FACT...SLEETFALL RATES OF
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE PROBABLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTIVE CORES. HOWEVER...THESE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN...AND EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SLEET AND SNOW TO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RES HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
PERHAPS THE HEAVIEST SLEET WILL FALL OVER EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OR GREATER SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA WARRANTED A WINTER STORM WARNING. AREAS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
HAVE CERTAINLY SEEN SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT WSW CRITERIA WILL BE MET ON A LARGE SCALE...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OVER
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNING IN THESE AREAS...THOUGH SEVERAL MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIER SNOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH...AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.
THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CARRY INTO THE
WEE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. ONCE WE GET TO SUNRISE TOMORROW...THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.
SINGLE DIGIT TO NEAR ZERO LOWS ARE FORECAST OVER A GOOD PART OF
OKLAHOMA...WITH LOWER TEENS OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. THIS COMBINED WITH NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FROM NEAR ZERO SOUTH TO -15 DEGREES NORTH. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO
THE 20S AND 30S TOMORROW...SO DON`T EXPECT A LOT OF MELTING. ROAD
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS RIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ONCE WE GET THROUGH TOMORROW...THINGS ARE LOOKING UP. YES...IT
WILL STILL BE CHILLY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS POSITIVE
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO. MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIP
THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS SHOULD MAINLY FALL IN LIQUID FORM...THOUGH
PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY GET A RAIN/SNOW MIX. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM EACH DAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR JUST IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WELCOME TO WINTER IN MARCH
EVERYONE!
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 7 24 17 46 / 50 0 10 10
HOBART OK 5 27 18 49 / 30 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 12 32 22 50 / 10 0 10 10
GAGE OK -2 25 19 48 / 60 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 3 20 13 41 / 100 0 10 0
DURANT OK 13 28 23 46 / 30 0 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ013-
017>020-023>032-040>043-046>048-050>052.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR OKZ004>036-038-
040-042.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ004>008-
010>012.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
603 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.AVIATION...
THE LAST BAND OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL MOVE EAST OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE
MORNING MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A MULTI-FACETED WINTER WEATHER MESS CONTINUES TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. WV SATELLITE SHOWS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DEEPENING ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WITH
WELL PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ENTERING WRN OK...AND AREA OF
DEFORMATION/BANDED SNOW OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. AHEAD OF THIS
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR...SCT SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTAINING HAIL CONTINUE. INSTABILITY REMAINS
TOO MARGINAL FOR SEVERE HAIL...BUT SEVERAL REPORTS OF DIMES AND
NICKELS HAVE COME IN. EXPECT THE LIKLIHOOD OF HAIL TO WANE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT HEAVY SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOOMERS
THAT HAPPEN TO AFFECT YOUR LOCATION. IN FACT...SLEETFALL RATES OF
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE PROBABLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTIVE CORES. HOWEVER...THESE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN...AND EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SLEET AND SNOW TO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RES HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
PERHAPS THE HEAVIEST SLEET WILL FALL OVER EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OR GREATER SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA WARRANTED A WINTER STORM WARNING. AREAS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
HAVE CERTAINLY SEEN SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT WSW CRITERIA WILL BE MET ON A LARGE SCALE...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OVER
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNING IN THESE AREAS...THOUGH SEVERAL MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIER SNOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH...AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.
THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CARRY INTO THE
WEE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. ONCE WE GET TO SUNRISE TOMORROW...THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.
SINGLE DIGIT TO NEAR ZERO LOWS ARE FORECAST OVER A GOOD PART OF
OKLAHOMA...WITH LOWER TEENS OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. THIS COMBINED WITH NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FROM NEAR ZERO SOUTH TO -15 DEGREES NORTH. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO
THE 20S AND 30S TOMORROW...SO DON`T EXPECT A LOT OF MELTING. ROAD
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS RIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ONCE WE GET THROUGH TOMORROW...THINGS ARE LOOKING UP. YES...IT
WILL STILL BE CHILLY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS POSITIVE
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO. MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIP
THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS SHOULD MAINLY FALL IN LIQUID FORM...THOUGH
PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY GET A RAIN/SNOW MIX. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM EACH DAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR JUST IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WELCOME TO WINTER IN MARCH
EVERYONE!
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 7 24 17 46 / 70 0 10 10
HOBART OK 5 27 18 49 / 50 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 12 32 22 50 / 10 0 10 10
GAGE OK -2 25 19 48 / 70 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 3 20 13 41 / 90 0 10 0
DURANT OK 13 28 23 46 / 40 0 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ013-
014-016>030-033>040-044-045.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR OKZ004>036-038-040-042.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ004>012-
015-031-032-041>043-046>048-050>052.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
26/09/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
530 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE NORM FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
BAND OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL MOVE OUT OF W ARKANSAS
SHORTLY BUT THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF THUNDER AT KFSM THROUGH
ABOUT 02. OTHERWISE...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH DRY SLOT...MAIN PRECIP TYPE WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW THIS
EVENING AS LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E
FROM ABOUT 06-08Z. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR SHOULD OCCUR SOON AFTER SNOW
ENDS WITH VFR IN ALL LOCATIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY I`VE SEEN MORE DIVERSE AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
THAN IN ANY EIGHT HOUR SHIFT OVER MY ENTIRE 40 YEAR CAREER.
THICK COLD ARCTIC AIR OF 5 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET HAS PRODUCED
SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. LIFT ABOVE A DEEP WARM LAYER
ALOFT HAS PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MANY COMBINATIONS OF
SLEET SNOW RAIN FREEZING RAIN HAIL.
DEEPENING COLD LAYER HAS ABOUT SHUT-OUT FREEZING RAIN RISK
SO ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO A WINTER STORM
HEADLINE. ALL WARNINGS CONSOLIDATED TO END AT 4 AM...WITH
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
LAST SNOW SLEET BURST CURRENTLY NOW WEST OF I-35 WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND LATE
EVENING TO 4 AM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HRRR SHORT RANGE MODEL
WHICH HAS BEEN GOOD...CLEARS PRECIP FROM CARROLL COUNTY AR
JUST BEFORE 4 AM.
BITTER COLD AND WINDY MONDAY REQUIRES WIND CHILL HEADLINE.
HIGHS TEMPS MONDAY NEAR RECORD LOW/MAXIMUM.
NEXT WAVE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
NEXT WEEKEND.
GW
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1126 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A FEW BREAKS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z ACROSS NE OK/NW AR...THEN INTO SE OK/WCNTRL AR TOWARD
12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
LEAD COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NRN TX...WITH AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE N OF THE FRONT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HRRR SUGGESTS CLOUD DECK
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE OK...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ACROS THIS AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 49 20 20 7 / 10 60 80 60
FSM 55 38 38 18 / 10 40 80 60
MLC 54 29 29 13 / 10 30 70 20
BVO 37 13 16 4 / 10 70 80 60
FYV 55 28 28 8 / 10 60 90 80
BYV 54 25 25 6 / 10 60 90 80
MKO 55 25 25 10 / 10 50 80 60
MIO 45 16 17 2 / 10 70 80 70
F10 50 24 24 9 / 10 50 70 50
HHW 57 42 42 19 / 10 20 70 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR
OKZ049-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-
OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR
OKZ053.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR
OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR
ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
AVIATION...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1104 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
LEAD COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NRN TX...WITH AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE N OF THE FRONT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HRRR SUGGESTS CLOUD DECK
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE OK...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ACROS THIS AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 49 20 20 7 / 10 60 80 60
FSM 55 38 38 18 / 10 40 80 60
MLC 54 29 29 13 / 10 30 70 20
BVO 37 13 16 4 / 10 70 80 60
FYV 55 28 28 8 / 10 60 90 80
BYV 54 25 25 6 / 10 60 90 80
MKO 55 25 25 10 / 10 50 80 60
MIO 45 16 17 2 / 10 70 80 70
F10 50 24 24 9 / 10 50 70 50
HHW 57 42 42 19 / 10 20 70 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR
OKZ049-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-
OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR
OKZ053.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR
OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR
ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
1002 AM PST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS DRIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS MORNING. LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM AN ASSOCIATED FRONT CONTINUES TO
BRING RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO PORTIONS OF LANE AND LINN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE BIG STORY TODAY WILL BE A STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR COMING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN...AND HAS ARRIVED ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD
THROUGH THE GORGE AND ACROSS THE PORTLAND METRO AREA TODAY WITH COLD
EAST WINDS TO FOLLOW LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE IT DOES NOT
APPEAR IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTRY PRECIP IN THE PORTLAND METRO
AREA...THERE IS A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE IN THE GORGE
AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT UNTIL THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND COASTAL WIND FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.MORNING UPDATE...COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH CLASH OF MARINE AND
CONTINENTAL AIR UNDERWAY. THE HIGHEST IMPACT EVENT IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY. SINCE NAM SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
HELPFUL AT THE MOMENT WILL RELY ON 4KM WRFGFS A BIT MORE HEAVILY
TODAY AS IT HAS A DECENT HANDLE AT LEAST ON HOOD RIVER CURRENTLY
UNTIL OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT OTHERWISE.
OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY SUGGEST PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO
FALL IN UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR HOOD
RIVER ARE NOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL SOME MORE TODAY...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO HIGH THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN THE SHALLOW MOISTURE
PROFILES. ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS IN THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY ARE 3-6
INCHES IN 12 HOURS...WITH 1 INCH PLUS IN THE GORGE. WITH BORDERLINE
TEMPS ONGOING NEAR HOOD RIVER CURRENTLY EXPECT THAT RATES WON`T BE
SUFFICIENT TODAY BUT...
CURRENT ADVISORY IS BUMPED UP AS SNOW IS STICKING FROM CASCADE LOCKS
TO CARSON.I DO NOT THINK THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY WILL GET 3-6" OF
SNOW BASED ON EXPECTED QPF BUT THE GORGE 1" CRITERIA WILL BE EASIER
TO BE FOUND EVEN THOUGH THE PRECIP SHIELD IS NOT COMPLETELY FILLED
IN. EXPECT IT WILL BE MORE SQUALLY IN NATURE IS OCCURRING WHICH CAN
CAUSE TRICKY TRAVEL QUICKLY...THUS THE REASON FOR BUMPING UP THE
START TIME.
SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW IS THE DOMINANT P-TYPE OVERNIGHT
CLOSER TO HOOD RIVER...WITH A TRANSITION EARLIER IN THE WESTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE WITH SEVERAL
MODELS WHILE STRUGGLING WITH SURFACE TEMPS STILL SUGGEST A WARM NOSE
RIDING OVER THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO THE
ADVISORY FOR ALL LOCATIONS. WITH SOME NEAR SURFACE WET BULBING IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION (SLEET/SNOW GRAINS) MAY GET
IN TO NEAR TTD/EAST PDX BUT NOT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS
POINT AS EVEN THE DALLES RAPID TEMPERATURE DROPS HAVE EASED SOME.
OUR TEMPERATURE AT THE OFFICE 3 MILES WEST OF PDX CONTINUES TO
FALL...CURRENTLY APPROACHING 36 DEGREES.
QPF COMPARISONS FOR 12Z-18Z TOMORROW MORNING RANGE FROM 0.1 TO 0.4
OVER THE GORGE AND UPPER HOOD VALLEY. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS IS
THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF TRANSITION TO A SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
PROFILE FOR THE CENTRAL GORGE.
EVEN THE COLD BIASED NAM HAS TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE GORGE SOMETIME LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IT IS THIS KEY TRANSITION
PERIOD WHEN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE COMING IN.
WILL TRIM BACK THE END OF THE WATCH SOME. IT IS LIKELY TO TRANSITION
MUCH SOONER THAN CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME WEST OF CASCADE LOCKS...BUT
WILL HANDLE THAT LATER TODAY WHEN WE DECIDE WHAT TO DO WITH THE
WATCH.
WITH THE WIND ADVISORY...THIS IS JUST AN EAST COUNTY SITUATION AT
BEST. PEAK WINDS LOOK TO BE TODAY SO THE ADVISORY MAY BE A BIT A
LONG. /KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...LET ME START OFF BY SAYING THIS
IS ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECASTS THUS FAR IN MY CAREER...AS
IT IS A VERY ODD PATTERN WHERE A MAJOR SURGE OF COLD AIR MAY OR MAY
NOT BE SUCCESSFUL PUSHING ALL THE WAY SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES ACROSS BOTH THE ROCKIES AND CASCADES. THIS IS VERY
TOUGH FOR COLD AIR TO DO SUCCESSFULLY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE AND MOST
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING IT WILL. SOME MODELS
SUCH AS THE NAM STILL SUGGEST THERE COULD BE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN
THE PORTLAND METRO AREA LATER TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE OTHERS
SUCH AS THE RAP ARE NOT EVEN BRINGING ENOUGH COLD AIR TO CREATE A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICE EVENT IN THE GORGE OR HOOD RIVER VALLEY. TO GIVE
AN EXAMPLE OF THE UNCERTAINTY HERE...THE 06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDING
SUGGESTED TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S IN HOOD RIVER AT 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE 06Z RAP SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S AT THE SAME PLACE AT THE SAME TIME. I BELIEVE BOTH ARE
WRONG...STICKING TO THE TYPICAL BIASES OF THE NAM BEING TOO COLD AND
THE RAP BEING TOO WARM. THE REALITY WILL MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IN ANY
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST IS UNUSUALLY LOW IN THIS SITUATION...BUT WE
WILL DO OUR BEST.
LETS START WITH THE TWO MODELS I MENTIONED EARLIER...THE NAM AND THE
RAP. THE COLD AIR IS ALREADY WELL BEHIND THE 00Z NAM FORECAST AND
EVEN THE 06Z INITIALIZATION. CHECKING SFC PRESSURES...THE 09Z NAM
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL WA ARE ALREADY 4-6 MB TOO HIGH. TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF WASHINGTON...EXCEPT
MOSES LAKE AND EPHRATA. THE 06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDING FOR KDLS SAID IT
WOULD BE 28 DEG F BY NOW...THE 11Z OB FOR KDLS SAYS IT IS STILL 42.
THIS MARKS LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHERE THE TEMP HAS BEEN SITTING AT KDLS
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE COLD ADVECTION HAS JUST STARTED...
EAST WINDS AT 10 KT HAVE PICKED UP AND THE DEWPOINT FELL 7 DEG F IN
ONE HOUR. SO IT IS SAFE TO SAY OUR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
W-SW INTO THE COLUMBIA GORGE...BUT IS DOING SO MUCH SLOWER AND WITH
MUCH LESS BLUSTER THAN THE NAM SUGGESTED. MEANWHILE THE RAP HAS BEEN
DOING MUCH BETTER WITH THE HANDLING OF THE COLD AIR...BEING MUCH
SLOWER AS IT HAS THE BENEFIT OF BEING REINITIALIZED EACH HOUR. WHERE
THE RAP LIKELY GOES WRONG IS WHAT IT DOES WITH THE COLD AIR LATER
TODAY. STRANGELY...THE RAP HAS THE EASTSIDE COLD POOL ESSENTIALLY
SURRENDERING LATER TODAY DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SUPPOSED WARM ADVECTION IN BRITISH COLUMBIA ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE SLIDING DOWN THE COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE APPEARS FAR TOO
WEAK TO DEFEAT A FULL-ON PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR...AND THE RAP IS OUT ON
ITS OWN WITH THIS IDEA. SUSPECT THE EASTSIDE COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS AS THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/ ECMWF/GEM
ALL INDICATE TO SOME DEGREE.
THE 00Z/06Z GFS ALSO HAS DONE MUCH BETTER WITH ITS INITIALIZATION...
BOTH WITH SFC PRESSURES AND THE MAGNITUDE/PROGRESS OF THE COLD AIR.
IT ALSO SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE STRONG LOW OFF CALIFORNIA AND
ACTIVITY FURTHER OUT INTO THE PACIFIC FAIRLY WELL. THEREFORE THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS ARE PREFERRED...AND ESSENTIALLY OUR FORECAST
IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GFS/WRFGFS.
WE DECIDED TO PUSH BACK THE START OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN THE
GORGE TO 6 PM FOR SEVERAL REASONS. FIRST...THE DELAY IN ARRIVAL OF
COLD AIR. SECOND...THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF QPF EXPECTED
TODAY. AND THIRD...THE EARLY MARCH SUN AND ITS IMPACT ON SURFACE
TEMPS. TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 40S ALL NIGHT...SO SURFACES
TAKE SOME TIME TO COOL OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW ICE ACCRETION. THE
STRONGER EARLY MARCH SUN WILL BE FIGHTING THE COLD AIR...EVEN THOUGH
IT WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH SOLAR ENERGY TO KEEP MOST SURFACES ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. OUTSIDE OF THE GORGE...TODAY WILL SEE RAIN GRADUALLY
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LOW AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MEETING THE MILD AND MOIST
AIR MASS IN PLACE.
AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE CASCADES...EASTERLY PRES
GRADIENTS AND THUS EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE GORGE. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE PDX METRO AREA...WHILE AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE GORGE OUTFLOW ONCE
AGAIN AIM FOR THE 50S. IT APPEARS VERY QUESTIONABLE WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS SITUATION TO KEEP THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE
EAST PORTLAND METRO. NORTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION ARE RATHER STRONG IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THEY DO THIS MORNING WHEN THEY REACH THE
CASCADES. THE COLD POOL WILL LIKELY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WINDY
DAY FOR MUCH OF THE METRO...RATHER THAN CONFINE STRONGER WINDS TO THE
GORGE. EXPECT MANY SPOTS IN AND AROUND PORTLAND/VANCOUVER WILL SEE
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED 45 MPH GUST
OR TWO.
THE RESULTING DOWNSLOPING OF THE BROADER EAST WIND MAY ALSO TAKE A
BIT OF THE EDGE OFF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR TRYING TO SPILL
WEST OF THE CASCADES. AS A RESULT WE BUMPED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY
TODAY...AND LEFT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FZRA AROUND TROUTDALE
TONIGHT. KEEP IN MIND THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
HIGH IMPACT ICE EVENT THROUGHOUT THE METRO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN THE NAM HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED DUE TO THE
FACT IT IS FAR TOO FAST AND STRONG WITH THE EASTSIDE COLD AIR.
A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD MORE RAIN ACROSS THE
DISTRICT SUNDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...THERE MAY BE
A BIT OF A COASTAL JET WHICH WOULD ALLOW BRIEF WINDS GUSTING 40-50
MPH ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. ANOTHER SIMILAR SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AND THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE AN INCREASING TAP
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE OVERRUNNING THE COLD
AIR IN THE GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE THE COLD AIR FINALLY
SCOURS OUT MONDAY. AT THIS MOMENT OUR HUNCH IS THAT TEMPS WILL
MODERATE JUST ENOUGH SUNDAY TO ALLOW THE SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE TO
FALL AS PLAIN RAIN IN THE GORGE AND NEAR HOOD RIVER. AGAIN...LEFT THE
EXISTING WINTER STORM WATCH IN PLACE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY... BUT IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP SUN NIGHT/MON WILL BE IN
UPPER PORTIONS OF THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND POSSIBLY EASTERN SKAMANIA
COUNTY.
TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE 50S ON GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY MONDAY...POSSIBLY INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE
GORGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AN ACTIVE PACIFIC STORM TRACK
WILL KEEP THINGS WET WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT TEMPS WILL
WARM UP JUST ENOUGH TO GIVE MANY OF US A HINT OF SPRING TO THE AIR BY
MIDWEEK. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MILD BUT WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. A MOIST PACIFIC FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE MONDAY...LIFTING SNOW LEVELS ABOVE PASS
LEVEL. STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION OVER
THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE 12Z
GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING BACK TO BACK
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEY BOTH SETUP AN
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ANOTHER JUST OFF THE
OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A 985 MB SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAS IT SETUP A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION. MAY SEE SOME DECENT COASTAL WINDS WITH
THIS SETUP AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
SUGGEST AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. /27
&&
.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY DETERIORATING THIS MORNING AS
MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AT CURRENT MOST COAST SITES SIT AT MVFR WITH
SOME LOCALIZED IFR OR LOWER...WHILE IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY MVFR
RULES ROUGHLY SOUTH OF KSLE WITH VFR TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THE MVFR
CIGS TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH LATER THIS MORNING WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY INCREASING. PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY OVER W WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON...WITH
BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS FOR AREAS N OF A KTMK TO KUAO LINE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR AT CURRENT SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR LATER
THIS MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY E WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS AFFECTING THE EASTERN PART OF THE METRO AREA
TOWARD THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY INTO EARLY SUN. LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE...MAINLY BELOW THE COASTAL GAPS AND THROUGH
THE COLUMBIA RIVER.
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BEGIN LATER SUN/MON. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON AM.
A STRONG FRONT WILL ARRIVE TUE NIGHT...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL
OF SOUTHERLY GALES AT THAT TIME. REST OF WEEK WILL REMAIN BREEZY
AND UNSETTLED AS MORE FRONTS ARRIVES. PYLE/ROCKEY
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST SUNDAY FOR GREATER PORTLAND METRO
AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST SUNDAY FOR GREATER VANCOUVER AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST SUNDAY FOR S WA CASCADES.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
435 AM PST SAT MAR 1 2014
...CORRECTION TO AVIATION SECTION.
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS DRIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS MORNING. LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM AN ASSOCIATED FRONT CONTINUES TO
BRING RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO PORTIONS OF LANE AND LINN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE BIG STORY TODAY WILL BE A STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR COMING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN...AND HAS ARRIVED ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD
THROUGH THE GORGE AND ACROSS THE PORTLAND METRO AREA TODAY WITH COLD
EAST WINDS TO FOLLOW LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE IT DOES NOT
APPEAR IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTRY PRECIP IN THE PORTLAND METRO
AREA...THERE IS A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE IN THE GORGE
AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT UNTIL THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND COASTAL WIND FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...LET ME START OFF BY SAYING THIS
IS ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECASTS THUS FAR IN MY CAREER...AS
IT IS A VERY ODD PATTERN WHERE A MAJOR SURGE OF COLD AIR MAY OR MAY
NOT BE SUCCESSFUL PUSHING ALL THE WAY SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES ACROSS BOTH THE ROCKIES AND CASCADES. THIS IS VERY
TOUGH FOR COLD AIR TO DO SUCCESSFULLY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE AND MOST
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING IT WILL. SOME MODELS
SUCH AS THE NAM STILL SUGGEST THERE COULD BE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN
THE PORTLAND METRO AREA LATER TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE OTHERS
SUCH AS THE RAP ARE NOT EVEN BRINGING ENOUGH COLD AIR TO CREATE A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICE EVENT IN THE GORGE OR HOOD RIVER VALLEY. TO GIVE
AN EXAMPLE OF THE UNCERTAINTY HERE...THE 06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDING
SUGGESTED TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S IN HOOD RIVER AT 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE 06Z RAP SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S AT THE SAME PLACE AT THE SAME TIME. I BELIEVE BOTH ARE
WRONG...STICKING TO THE TYPICAL BIASES OF THE NAM BEING TOO COLD AND
THE RAP BEING TOO WARM. THE REALITY WILL MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IN ANY
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST IS UNUSUALLY LOW IN THIS SITUATION...BUT WE
WILL DO OUR BEST.
LETS START WITH THE TWO MODELS I MENTIONED EARLIER...THE NAM AND THE
RAP. THE COLD AIR IS ALREADY WELL BEHIND THE 00Z NAM FORECAST AND
EVEN THE 06Z INITIALIZATION. CHECKING SFC PRESSURES...THE 09Z NAM
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL WA ARE ALREADY 4-6 MB TOO HIGH. TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF WASHINGTON...EXCEPT
MOSES LAKE AND EPHRATA. THE 06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDING FOR KDLS SAID IT
WOULD BE 28 DEG F BY NOW...THE 11Z OB FOR KDLS SAYS IT IS STILL 42.
THIS MARKS LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHERE THE TEMP HAS BEEN SITTING AT KDLS
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE COLD ADVECTION HAS JUST STARTED...
EAST WINDS AT 10 KT HAVE PICKED UP AND THE DEWPOINT FELL 7 DEG F IN
ONE HOUR. SO IT IS SAFE TO SAY OUR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
W-SW INTO THE COLUMBIA GORGE...BUT IS DOING SO MUCH SLOWER AND WITH
MUCH LESS BLUSTER THAN THE NAM SUGGESTED. MEANWHILE THE RAP HAS BEEN
DOING MUCH BETTER WITH THE HANDLING OF THE COLD AIR...BEING MUCH
SLOWER AS IT HAS THE BENEFIT OF BEING REINITIALIZED EACH HOUR. WHERE
THE RAP LIKELY GOES WRONG IS WHAT IT DOES WITH THE COLD AIR LATER
TODAY. STRANGELY...THE RAP HAS THE EASTSIDE COLD POOL ESSENTIALLY
SURRENDERING LATER TODAY DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SUPPOSED WARM ADVECTION IN BRITISH COLUMBIA ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE SLIDING DOWN THE COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE APPEARS FAR TOO
WEAK TO DEFEAT A FULL-ON PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR...AND THE RAP IS OUT ON
ITS OWN WITH THIS IDEA. SUSPECT THE EASTSIDE COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS AS THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/ ECMWF/GEM
ALL INDICATE TO SOME DEGREE.
THE 00Z/06Z GFS ALSO HAS DONE MUCH BETTER WITH ITS INITIALIZATION...
BOTH WITH SFC PRESSURES AND THE MAGNITUDE/PROGRESS OF THE COLD AIR.
IT ALSO SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE STRONG LOW OFF CALIFORNIA AND
ACTIVITY FURTHER OUT INTO THE PACIFIC FAIRLY WELL. THEREFORE THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS ARE PREFERRED...AND ESSENTIALLY OUR FORECAST
IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GFS/WRFGFS.
WE DECIDED TO PUSH BACK THE START OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN THE
GORGE TO 6 PM FOR SEVERAL REASONS. FIRST...THE DELAY IN ARRIVAL OF
COLD AIR. SECOND...THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF QPF EXPECTED
TODAY. AND THIRD...THE EARLY MARCH SUN AND ITS IMPACT ON SURFACE
TEMPS. TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 40S ALL NIGHT...SO SURFACES
TAKE SOME TIME TO COOL OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW ICE ACCRETION. THE
STRONGER EARLY MARCH SUN WILL BE FIGHTING THE COLD AIR...EVEN THOUGH
IT WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH SOLAR ENERGY TO KEEP MOST SURFACES ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. OUTSIDE OF THE GORGE...TODAY WILL SEE RAIN GRADUALLY
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LOW AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MEETING THE MILD AND MOIST
AIR MASS IN PLACE.
AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE CASCADES...EASTERLY PRES
GRADIENTS AND THUS EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE GORGE. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE PDX METRO AREA...WHILE AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE GORGE OUTFLOW ONCE
AGAIN AIM FOR THE 50S. IT APPEARS VERY QUESTIONABLE WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS SITUATION TO KEEP THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE
EAST PORTLAND METRO. NORTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION ARE RATHER STRONG IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THEY DO THIS MORNING WHEN THEY REACH THE
CASCADES. THE COLD POOL WILL LIKELY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WINDY
DAY FOR MUCH OF THE METRO...RATHER THAN CONFINE STRONGER WINDS TO THE
GORGE. EXPECT MANY SPOTS IN AND AROUND PORTLAND/VANCOUVER WILL SEE
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED 45 MPH GUST
OR TWO.
THE RESULTING DOWNSLOPING OF THE BROADER EAST WIND MAY ALSO TAKE A
BIT OF THE EDGE OFF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR TRYING TO SPILL
WEST OF THE CASCADES. AS A RESULT WE BUMPED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY
TODAY...AND LEFT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FZRA AROUND TROUTDALE
TONIGHT. KEEP IN MIND THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
HIGH IMPACT ICE EVENT THROUGHOUT THE METRO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN THE NAM HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED DUE TO THE
FACT IT IS FAR TOO FAST AND STRONG WITH THE EASTSIDE COLD AIR.
A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD MORE RAIN ACROSS THE
DISTRICT SUNDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...THERE MAY BE
A BIT OF A COASTAL JET WHICH WOULD ALLOW BRIEF WINDS GUSTING 40-50
MPH ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. ANOTHER SIMILAR SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AND THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE AN INCREASING TAP
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE OVERRUNNING THE COLD
AIR IN THE GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE THE COLD AIR FINALLY
SCOURS OUT MONDAY. AT THIS MOMENT OUR HUNCH IS THAT TEMPS WILL
MODERATE JUST ENOUGH SUNDAY TO ALLOW THE SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE TO
FALL AS PLAIN RAIN IN THE GORGE AND NEAR HOOD RIVER. AGAIN...LEFT THE
EXISTING WINTER STORM WATCH IN PLACE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY... BUT IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP SUN NIGHT/MON WILL BE IN
UPPER PORTIONS OF THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND POSSIBLY EASTERN SKAMANIA
COUNTY.
TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE 50S ON GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY MONDAY...POSSIBLY INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE
GORGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AN ACTIVE PACIFIC STORM TRACK
WILL KEEP THINGS WET WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT TEMPS WILL
WARM UP JUST ENOUGH TO GIVE MANY OF US A HINT OF SPRING TO THE AIR BY
MIDWEEK. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MILD BUT WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. A MOIST PACIFIC FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE MONDAY...LIFTING SNOW LEVELS ABOVE PASS
LEVEL. STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION OVER
THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE 12Z
GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING BACK TO BACK
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEY BOTH SETUP AN
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ANOTHER JUST OFF THE
OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A 985 MB SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAS IT SETUP A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION. MAY SEE SOME DECENT COASTAL WINDS WITH
THIS SETUP AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
SUGGEST AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. /27
&&
.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS REGION THIS AM. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN WITH CIGS MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR S BETWEEN KS12 AND
K61S...MOSTLY AFFECTING KEUG. NOT MUCH CHANGE TODAY WITH MOSTLY
VFR ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND N OF KSLE. THAT SAID...CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ACROSS INLAND NW OREGON TODAY AS MORE MOISTURE
ALOFT ARRIVES FROM THE S. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TODAY OVER W WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY...WITH BREEZY WINDS
FOR AREAS N OF A KTMK TO KUAO LINE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY BUT CIGS LOWER TO 5000 FT 14Z TO
16Z. CIGS LOWER FURTHER LATE TODAY...WITH MVFR BECOMING MORE
DOMINANT BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY E WINDS
AFTER 18Z...WITH PEAK GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT.ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY INTO EARLY SUN. LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES BY LATE AM...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE...MAINLY BELOW THE COASTAL GAPS AND THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER.
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BEGIN LATER SUN/MON. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON AM.
A STRONG FRONT WILL ARRIVE TUE NIGHT...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL
OF SOUTHERLY GALES AT THAT TIME. REST OF WEEK WILL REMAIN BREEZY
AND UNSETTLED AS MORE FRONTS ARRIVE. ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TONIGHT TO 6 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
GREATER VANCOUVER AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TONIGHT TO 6 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
337 AM PST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS DRIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS MORNING. LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM AN ASSOCIATED FRONT CONTINUES TO
BRING RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO PORTIONS OF LANE AND LINN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE BIG STORY TODAY WILL BE A STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR COMING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN...AND HAS ARRIVED ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD
THROUGH THE GORGE AND ACROSS THE PORTLAND METRO AREA TODAY WITH COLD
EAST WINDS TO FOLLOW LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE IT DOES NOT
APPEAR IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTRY PRECIP IN THE PORTLAND METRO
AREA...THERE IS A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE IN THE GORGE
AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT UNTIL THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND COASTAL WIND FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...LET ME START OFF BY SAYING THIS
IS ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECASTS THUS FAR IN MY CAREER...AS
IT IS A VERY ODD PATTERN WHERE A MAJOR SURGE OF COLD AIR MAY OR MAY
NOT BE SUCCESSFUL PUSHING ALL THE WAY SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES ACROSS BOTH THE ROCKIES AND CASCADES. THIS IS VERY
TOUGH FOR COLD AIR TO DO SUCCESSFULLY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE AND MOST
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING IT WILL. SOME MODELS
SUCH AS THE NAM STILL SUGGEST THERE COULD BE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN
THE PORTLAND METRO AREA LATER TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE OTHERS
SUCH AS THE RAP ARE NOT EVEN BRINGING ENOUGH COLD AIR TO CREATE A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICE EVENT IN THE GORGE OR HOOD RIVER VALLEY. TO GIVE
AN EXAMPLE OF THE UNCERTAINTY HERE...THE 06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDING
SUGGESTED TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S IN HOOD RIVER AT 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE 06Z RAP SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S AT THE SAME PLACE AT THE SAME TIME. I BELIEVE BOTH ARE
WRONG...STICKING TO THE TYPICAL BIASES OF THE NAM BEING TOO COLD AND
THE RAP BEING TOO WARM. THE REALITY WILL MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IN ANY
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST IS UNUSUALLY LOW IN THIS SITUATION...BUT WE
WILL DO OUR BEST.
LETS START WITH THE TWO MODELS I MENTIONED EARLIER...THE NAM AND THE
RAP. THE COLD AIR IS ALREADY WELL BEHIND THE 00Z NAM FORECAST AND
EVEN THE 06Z INITIALIZATION. CHECKING SFC PRESSURES...THE 09Z NAM
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL WA ARE ALREADY 4-6 MB TOO HIGH. TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF WASHINGTON...EXCEPT
MOSES LAKE AND EPHRATA. THE 06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDING FOR KDLS SAID IT
WOULD BE 28 DEG F BY NOW...THE 11Z OB FOR KDLS SAYS IT IS STILL 42.
THIS MARKS LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHERE THE TEMP HAS BEEN SITTING AT KDLS
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE COLD ADVECTION HAS JUST STARTED...
EAST WINDS AT 10 KT HAVE PICKED UP AND THE DEWPOINT FELL 7 DEG F IN
ONE HOUR. SO IT IS SAFE TO SAY OUR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
W-SW INTO THE COLUMBIA GORGE...BUT IS DOING SO MUCH SLOWER AND WITH
MUCH LESS BLUSTER THAN THE NAM SUGGESTED. MEANWHILE THE RAP HAS BEEN
DOING MUCH BETTER WITH THE HANDLING OF THE COLD AIR...BEING MUCH
SLOWER AS IT HAS THE BENEFIT OF BEING REINITIALIZED EACH HOUR. WHERE
THE RAP LIKELY GOES WRONG IS WHAT IT DOES WITH THE COLD AIR LATER
TODAY. STRANGELY...THE RAP HAS THE EASTSIDE COLD POOL ESSENTIALLY
SURRENDERING LATER TODAY DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SUPPOSED WARM ADVECTION IN BRITISH COLUMBIA ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE SLIDING DOWN THE COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE APPEARS FAR TOO
WEAK TO DEFEAT A FULL-ON PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR...AND THE RAP IS OUT ON
ITS OWN WITH THIS IDEA. SUSPECT THE EASTSIDE COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS AS THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/ ECMWF/GEM
ALL INDICATE TO SOME DEGREE.
THE 00Z/06Z GFS ALSO HAS DONE MUCH BETTER WITH ITS INITIALIZATION...
BOTH WITH SFC PRESSURES AND THE MAGNITUDE/PROGRESS OF THE COLD AIR.
IT ALSO SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE STRONG LOW OFF CALIFORNIA AND
ACTIVITY FURTHER OUT INTO THE PACIFIC FAIRLY WELL. THEREFORE THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS ARE PREFERRED...AND ESSENTIALLY OUR FORECAST
IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GFS/WRFGFS.
WE DECIDED TO PUSH BACK THE START OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN THE
GORGE TO 6 PM FOR SEVERAL REASONS. FIRST...THE DELAY IN ARRIVAL OF
COLD AIR. SECOND...THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF QPF EXPECTED
TODAY. AND THIRD...THE EARLY MARCH SUN AND ITS IMPACT ON SURFACE
TEMPS. TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 40S ALL NIGHT...SO SURFACES
TAKE SOME TIME TO COOL OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW ICE ACCRETION. THE
STRONGER EARLY MARCH SUN WILL BE FIGHTING THE COLD AIR...EVEN THOUGH
IT WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH SOLAR ENERGY TO KEEP MOST SURFACES ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. OUTSIDE OF THE GORGE...TODAY WILL SEE RAIN GRADUALLY
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO LOW AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MEETING THE MILD AND MOIST
AIR MASS IN PLACE.
AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE CASCADES...EASTERLY PRES
GRADIENTS AND THUS EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE GORGE. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE PDX METRO AREA...WHILE AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE GORGE OUTFLOW ONCE
AGAIN AIM FOR THE 50S. IT APPEARS VERY QUESTIONABLE WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS SITUATION TO KEEP THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE
EAST PORTLAND METRO. NORTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION ARE RATHER STRONG IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN...IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THEY DO THIS MORNING WHEN THEY REACH THE
CASCADES. THE COLD POOL WILL LIKELY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WINDY
DAY FOR MUCH OF THE METRO...RATHER THAN CONFINE STRONGER WINDS TO THE
GORGE. EXPECT MANY SPOTS IN AND AROUND PORTLAND/VANCOUVER WILL SEE
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED 45 MPH GUST
OR TWO.
THE RESULTING DOWNSLOPING OF THE BROADER EAST WIND MAY ALSO TAKE A
BIT OF THE EDGE OFF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR TRYING TO SPILL
WEST OF THE CASCADES. AS A RESULT WE BUMPED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY
TODAY...AND LEFT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FZRA AROUND TROUTDALE
TONIGHT. KEEP IN MIND THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
HIGH IMPACT ICE EVENT THROUGHOUT THE METRO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN THE NAM HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED DUE TO THE
FACT IT IS FAR TOO FAST AND STRONG WITH THE EASTSIDE COLD AIR.
A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD MORE RAIN ACROSS THE
DISTRICT SUNDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...THERE MAY BE
A BIT OF A COASTAL JET WHICH WOULD ALLOW BRIEF WINDS GUSTING 40-50
MPH ALONG THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. ANOTHER SIMILAR SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AND THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE AN INCREASING TAP
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE OVERRUNNING THE COLD
AIR IN THE GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE THE COLD AIR FINALLY
SCOURS OUT MONDAY. AT THIS MOMENT OUR HUNCH IS THAT TEMPS WILL
MODERATE JUST ENOUGH SUNDAY TO ALLOW THE SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE TO
FALL AS PLAIN RAIN IN THE GORGE AND NEAR HOOD RIVER. AGAIN...LEFT THE
EXISTING WINTER STORM WATCH IN PLACE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY... BUT IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP SUN NIGHT/MON WILL BE IN
UPPER PORTIONS OF THE HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND POSSIBLY EASTERN SKAMANIA
COUNTY.
TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE 50S ON GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY MONDAY...POSSIBLY INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE
GORGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AN ACTIVE PACIFIC STORM TRACK
WILL KEEP THINGS WET WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT TEMPS WILL
WARM UP JUST ENOUGH TO GIVE MANY OF US A HINT OF SPRING TO THE AIR BY
MIDWEEK. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MILD BUT WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. A MOIST PACIFIC FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE MONDAY...LIFTING SNOW LEVELS ABOVE PASS
LEVEL. STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION OVER
THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE 12Z
GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING BACK TO BACK
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEY BOTH SETUP AN
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ANOTHER JUST OFF THE
OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A 985 MB SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAS IT SETUP A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION. MAY SEE SOME DECENT COASTAL WINDS WITH
THIS SETUP AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
SUGGEST AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. /27
&&
.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS REGION THIS AM. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN WITH CIGS MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR S BETWEEN KS12 AND
K61S...MOSTLY AFFECTING KEUG. NOT MUCH CHANGE TODAY WITH MOSTLY
VFR ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND N OF KSLE. THAT SAID...CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ACROSS INLAND NW OREGON TODAY AS MORE MOISTURE
ALOFT ARRIVES FROM THE S. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TODAY OVER W WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON TODAY...WITH BREEZY WINDS
FOR AREAS N OF A KTMK TO KUAO LINE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY BUT CIGS LOWER TO 5000 FT 18Z TO
20Z. CIGS LOWER FURTHER LATE TODAY...WITH MVFR BECOMING MORE
DOMINANT BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY E WINDS
AFTER 18Z...WITH PEAK GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT.ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY INTO EARLY SUN. LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES BY LATE AM...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE...MAINLY BELOW THE COASTAL GAPS AND THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER.
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BEGIN LATER SUN/MON. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON AM.
A STRONG FRONT WILL ARRIVE TUE NIGHT...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL
OF SOUTHERLY GALES AT THAT TIME. REST OF WEEK WILL REMAIN BREEZY
AND UNSETTLED AS MORE FRONTS ARRIVE. ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TONIGHT TO 6 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
GREATER VANCOUVER AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TONIGHT TO 6 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
313 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A MOIST COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
WITH A SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...THERE WILL BE A FLAT UPR RIDGE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THRU THE NEAR TERM...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF BEGINS TO
ENTER THE SRN PLAINS. SFC HIGH PRES WILL LINGER JUST OFF THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SWLY LLVL RETURN FLOW ATOP
THE CWFA TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY. FCST SNDGS INDICATE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH INCREASING BL MOISTURE WITHIN THE SW FLOW. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HINTS AT SOME FOG OR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY ACRS THE PIEDMONT. MOST OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE RAP HINTING AS
WELL. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...HIGHLIGHTING THE
AREA WHERE THE NAM AS NEAR ZERO SFC CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON DENSE FOG IS STILL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE KEPT
ABOVE NORMAL WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT SAGGING SEWD
ACRS THE OH VLY...BUT PRECIP HOLDING OFF TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE SFC
BNDRY. SO WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTN...BUT OTHERWISE IT SHUD BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH
HIGHS ABOUT 8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SAT...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES SWIFTLY EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. THE WAVE WILL INTERACT
WITH A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE OH AND MID MS RIVER
VALLEYS AND GENERATE SFC WAVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL
ZONE AND THE COLD SIDE...KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY SLOWLY BUILDING POPS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
GET SHUTTLED EWD. FORCING FEATURES COME TOGETHER BEST ACROSS THE
AREA MON MORNING IN THE FORM OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
DIVERGENCE...PASSING DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS THE SFC WAVE SWEEPS IN ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND POSSIBLY WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING
THROUGH LATE DAY NW OF THE SFC WAVE AFTER THE BOUNDARY SLIPS THROUGH
THE AREA. THIS WILL WARRANT LIKELY TO CAT POPS THROUGHOUT MON
MORNING.
EVEN WITH THE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT...MUCAPES WILL BE LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO 100 J/KG OR LESS...WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES 5.5 TO
6 DEG C/KM...AND WITH WESTERLY SHEAR PROFILES. THIS WILL GREATLY
LIMIT THE TSTM POTENTIAL AND ONLY SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE
WARM SECTOR. COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY SURGE INTO THE NRN TIER MON
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE W AND A BACKDOOR
FRONT WRAPS DOWN FROM THE N. THE RACE WILL THEN BE ON BETWEEN THE
MOISTURE EXITING SE AND COLDER PROFILES ARRIVING FROM THE N TO
SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX. STILL FEEL THAT ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP
WOULD BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORED IN THIS SETUP. IN ADDITION...
PROFILES APPEAR TO DRY OUT FROM THE TOP DOWN IN THE COLDER NRN
TIER...LIKELY ENDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE NUCLEATION AND ANY
ACCUMULATING FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION. BRIEF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD STILL OCCUR OVER THE NW NC
PIEDMONT LATE MON...WITH BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MTNS NEAR THE NC BORDER INTO EARLY EVENING.
NO HAZARD HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
H5 FLOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME ZONAL THROUGH TUE...WITH 1032 MB HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER TO THE N FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS...MAY CAP TUE MAX
TEMPS AT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...TRICKY MEDIUM RANGE FCST CONTINUES AS
GENERAL OVERALL AGREEMENT EXISTS...BUT SIGNIFICANT DETAIL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN AS WELL. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT SHOWING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING TO THE WRN GULF COAST BY WED NITE THEN
CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW ON THU. THIS LOW THEN MOVES EAST ALONG THE
GULF COAST THU NITE AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRI AND SAT. THE
CANADIAN MODEL IS COMING AROUND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH SOME MINOR
PLACEMENT AND TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH A
MUCH FASTER AND OPEN WAVE. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN AS CONSISTENT WITH
THE STRENGTH...POSITION OR TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN IS DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NOT AS DEEP OR SLOW
AS THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN. WPC IS TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEPER AND
SLOWER SCENARIO...SO HAVE GONE THIS DIRECTION AS WELL.
WED WILL BE A COOL DRY DAY WITH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN A CLASSICAL
CAD PATTERN. THE GULF LOW SPINS UP ON THU AND MOVES EAST SPREADING
MOISTURE AND PRECIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE DEVELOPING CAD. THE GFS
WITH ITS WEAKER AND FASTER LOW...KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-85. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
WETTER. THEREFORE...SPREAD CHC POP IN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA WED NITE
AND THE ENTIRE CWFA THU. PARTIAL THICKNESSES...H85 TEMPS...AND SFC
TEMPS SUGGEST SNOW AND SLEET WOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85
AS THE PRECIP MOVES IN WED NITE...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN SOUTH. AS
TEMPS WARM THRU THE DAY THU...PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN IN ALL BUT THE
DEEPEST PART OF THE CAD DOME...NEAR AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE
LOW MOVES UP THE SERN COAST THU NITE AND FRI...PRECIP REMAINS ACROSS
THE CWFA. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS REMAIN COOL OVER THE MTNS
WITH SFC TEMPS FALLING ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR TOWARD DAYBREAK. A
STRONG WARM NOSE DEVELOPS WITH CONTINUING WWA. THIS CHANGES ANY
WINTRY PRECIP IN THOSE COLDER AREAS TO FREEZING RAIN. PRECIP TAPERS
OFF ACROSS THE WRN CWFA FRI AFTERNOON AND ALL AREAS FRI EVENING AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TAKING MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH
IT. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FRI AS THE WWA CONTINUES AND
REMAINS RAIN UNTIL ENDING. RIGHT NOW...THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE THICKNESS AND TEMP PATTERN...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A
LITTLE BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT A PRECIP EVENT WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW
AND SFC GULF LOW WILL DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE FOR SNOW/SLEET
LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OVER
THE NRN MTNS. ALSO HAVE TRACE ICE ACCRETION NORTH OF I-85 AND LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER THE MTNS...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
NRN MTNS. AGAIN...THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN...SO STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. THE 18Z TAF
STARTING OUT WITH BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS...WHICH SHUD CLEAR OUT WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...LEAVING MAINLY JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS FOR THIS
EVENING THRU THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE
COAST...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO VEER FROM SE TO SW AND ADVECT HIGHER
DEWPTS INTO THE AREA. THE NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE HINT AT SOME FOG/LOW
STRATUS POTENTIAL AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE IS EVEN PICKING UP ON THIS AT ALL. SO CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF FOR NOW. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE
5-8 KT RANGE AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH SOME INCREASING CIRRUS
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE...VFR EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...ESP IN
THE MTN VLYS. MID CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST PART...AND HIGH
PRES WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY OF
THE PIEDMONT TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY OUT OF
THE S/SW.
OUTLOOK...QUIET SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SOME RESTRICTIONS MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 90% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 77% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
629 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.UPDATE...TO CORRECT GRAMMAR IN FIRST LINE
&&
.AVIATION...12Z AVIATION FORECAST
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...
..POOR FLYING WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST
AND CAN BE SEEN IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS. SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET WILL
PUSH NORTHWARD TODAY FROM GULF. THIS IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE AS
CAN BE SEEN BY HEIGHT FIELDS FROM GULF REGION LIFTING NORTHWARD IN
LATEST RUC LOOP. THINK STRATOCU WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A LOWERING IN THE CEILING AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING
POSSIBLY INTO THE IFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT. IN THE LATEST CONUS
WATER VAPOR LOOP ONE CAN SEE A STRONG TWIST IN THE IMAGERY NEARING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER THAT
PILOTS WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH. BY SUNDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEAST. WINTRY PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1134 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION
&&
.AVIATION...
A MIX OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE
TN WITH VFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CIGS TRAIL THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD...SO WILL KEEP THAT IN THE AREA
TERMINALS FOR EARLY SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE STATE SAT AFTN...VEERING WINDS AROUND TO THE SSW AND
SCATTERING OUT THE CLOUDS. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY TOWARDS THE END
OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014/
UPDATE...RECENTLY RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF SLEET FROM OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SLEET WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP BAND AS
IT TRAVERSES OUR AREA TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
WARM SUFFICIENTLY ALONG THE LAGGING PART OF THE BAND, SO THAT
PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN BEFORE ENDING. THUS,
HAVE ADDED A BRIEF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SLEET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
935 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA
THIS EVENING RESULTING IN STRONG GUSTY N WINDS AND FALLING TEMPS.
BASED ON THE LATEST TEMP TRENDS AND HOW FAST THEY ARE FALLING AND
DUE TO SEVERAL MODELS PROGING FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND LOWERED MN TEMPS BY A
FEW DEGREES RESULTING IN A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE NRN CWA AND
MORE WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW 25 DEGREES. THEREFORE HAVE
EXPANDED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE CWA
INCLUDING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES. ALSO
ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THE BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZING TEMPS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA A LITTLE
FASTER BY A COUPLE OF HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTCIPATED. HAVE UPDATED FCST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER FROPA AND WENT EARLIER WITH THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS. WINDS BEHIND THE FROPA HAVE BEEN
INITIALLY GUSTING BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS THEN DECREASING TO
28-35KTS...THEREFORE AM NOT ANTCIPATING WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REMAINS IN EFFECT. ISOLD SHRA`S HAVE ALSO BEEN DVLPG
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
FROM NW TO SE. SOME MODELS PROG MN TEMPS OF 31 DEGREES AROUND VCT
BUT THINK CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP MN TEMPS JUST ABV
FREEZING BUT A BRIEF DIP TO 32 DEGREES AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NRN CWA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ONLY MADE
TWEAKS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WSHFT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER FROPA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH (WHICH IS VERY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST)...CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR AT KCRP...KVCT AND KALI BUT BE
MVFR AT KLRD. CIGS WILL FALL RAPIDLY AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS...BUT
MAY TAKE A BIT OF TIME AT KLRD (BASED ON SATELLITE AND GUIDANCE).
FRONT ALREADY THROUGH KVCT AND SHOULD BE THROUGH REMAINDER OF
TERMINALS BY 02Z (AND PROBABLY EARLIER). SOME SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARY
EXPECTED...BUT THUNDER UNLIKELY BASED ON CAP WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD THUNDER IN CHECK. RATHER WINDY TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOA
20 KNOTS AND GUSTS AOA 30 KNOTS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AT KLRD.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR...THEN VFR (BUT STILL CIGS) DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS AND GUSTS FINALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. FRONT
SHOULD ENTER THE AREA IN AN HOUR OR TWO AND MOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS FAR OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...WITH NO THUNDER
REPORTED YET. THINK LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ALONG OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TUMBLE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY BE ABOUT 40 TO 45 DEGREES COOLER MONDAY MORNING
COMPARED TO RIGHT NOW. IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER TEMPS...STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE EXISTS BETWEEN MAV/MET WIND SPEEDS WITH
THE MAV SUGGESTING WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. TEMPERED WIND SPEEDS
A BIT BUT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NONETHELESS WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY COULD BECOME NECESSARY IF
SPEEDS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AN ISSUE THOUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION
WHERE WC VALUES WILL FALL BETWEEN 20 AND 25 AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SOMETHING ALSO
WORTH MONITORING WILL BE THE PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE HRRR HAS DEVELOPED PRECIP OVER MUCH OF
SOUTH TEXAS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT HAVE KEPT
SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
40S ON MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RAMP BACK UP ON MONDAY NIGHT AS
850MB FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN BECOMES
ESTABLISHED.
MARINE...VERY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BETWEEN 35 AND 40
KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING OVER THE
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD BETWEEN 6 AND 8
FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 8 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING
ON MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...S/W TROUGH AXIS WILL KICK EAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN ZONES AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AN INCREASE IN NVA
SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCES RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AS
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH SKIRTS EAST ACROSS TX. THIS SYSTEM IS PROG TO BE
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE STARVED THAN MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY SYSTEM...AND THUS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NW FLOW FROM SFC TO UPPER LEVELS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SUNNIER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. BRIEF
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY TRANSITIONS TO MERIDIONAL BY THE WEEKEND
WITH BOTH ECMWF/GFS WANTING TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WANTING TO CUT OFF A STRONG H5 LOW ACROSS
NW MEX AND SHIFT IT EAST TOWARDS THE BIG BEND REGION. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR LATTER PERIODS DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PROGRESSES CLOSER. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR TUES WITH ONLY TEMPERED
MODIFICATION ON WEDNESDAY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP EXPECTED THURS
AND FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY
IMPACTS THE AREA LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 35 47 38 44 44 / 30 20 50 50 20
VICTORIA 33 47 36 42 41 / 30 10 50 50 20
LAREDO 38 46 39 52 47 / 10 10 20 10 10
ALICE 35 46 38 45 43 / 20 10 40 40 20
ROCKPORT 33 48 39 45 45 / 30 20 50 50 20
COTULLA 36 49 37 48 44 / 10 10 30 10 10
KINGSVILLE 35 45 38 46 44 / 30 20 50 50 20
NAVY CORPUS 37 46 41 45 45 / 30 20 50 50 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
TE/81...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
659 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA A LITTLE
FASTER BY A COUPLE OF HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTCIPATED. HAVE UPDATED FCST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER FROPA AND WENT EARLIER WITH THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS. WINDS BEHIND THE FROPA HAVE BEEN
INITIALLY GUSTING BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS THEN DECREASING TO
28-35KTS...THEREFORE AM NOT ANTCIPATING WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REMAINS IN EFFECT. ISOLD SHRA`S HAVE ALSO BEEN DVLPG
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
FROM NW TO SE. SOME MODELS PROG MN TEMPS OF 31 DEGREES AROUND VCT
BUT THINK CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP MN TEMPS JUST ABV
FREEZING BUT A BRIEF DIP TO 32 DEGREES AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NRN CWA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ONLY MADE
TWEAKS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WSHFT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER FROPA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH (WHICH IS VERY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST)...CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR AT KCRP...KVCT AND KALI BUT BE
MVFR AT KLRD. CIGS WILL FALL RAPIDLY AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS...BUT
MAY TAKE A BIT OF TIME AT KLRD (BASED ON SATELLITE AND GUIDANCE).
FRONT ALREADY THROUGH KVCT AND SHOULD BE THROUGH REMAINDER OF
TERMINALS BY 02Z (AND PROBABLY EARLIER). SOME SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARY
EXPECTED...BUT THUNDER UNLIKELY BASED ON CAP WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD THUNDER IN CHECK. RATHER WINDY TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOA
20 KNOTS AND GUSTS AOA 30 KNOTS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AT KLRD.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR...THEN VFR (BUT STILL CIGS) DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS AND GUSTS FINALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. FRONT
SHOULD ENTER THE AREA IN AN HOUR OR TWO AND MOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS FAR OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...WITH NO THUNDER
REPORTED YET. THINK LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ALONG OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TUMBLE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY BE ABOUT 40 TO 45 DEGREES COOLER MONDAY MORNING
COMPARED TO RIGHT NOW. IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER TEMPS...STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE EXISTS BETWEEN MAV/MET WIND SPEEDS WITH
THE MAV SUGGESTING WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. TEMPERED WIND SPEEDS
A BIT BUT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NONETHELESS WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY COULD BECOME NECESSARY IF
SPEEDS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AN ISSUE THOUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION
WHERE WC VALUES WILL FALL BETWEEN 20 AND 25 AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SOMETHING ALSO
WORTH MONITORING WILL BE THE PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE HRRR HAS DEVELOPED PRECIP OVER MUCH OF
SOUTH TEXAS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT HAVE KEPT
SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
40S ON MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RAMP BACK UP ON MONDAY NIGHT AS
850MB FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN BECOMES
ESTABLISHED.
MARINE...VERY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BETWEEN 35 AND 40
KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING OVER THE
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD BETWEEN 6 AND 8
FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 8 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING
ON MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...S/W TROUGH AXIS WILL KICK EAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN ZONES AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AN INCREASE IN NVA
SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCES RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AS
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH SKIRTS EAST ACROSS TX. THIS SYSTEM IS PROG TO BE
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE STARVED THAN MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY SYSTEM...AND THUS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NW FLOW FROM SFC TO UPPER LEVELS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SUNNIER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. BRIEF
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY TRANSITIONS TO MERIDIONAL BY THE WEEKEND
WITH BOTH ECMWF/GFS WANTING TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WANTING TO CUT OFF A STRONG H5 LOW ACROSS
NW MEX AND SHIFT IT EAST TOWARDS THE BIG BEND REGION. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR LATTER PERIODS DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PROGRESSES CLOSER. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR TUES WITH ONLY TEMPERED
MODIFICATION ON WEDNESDAY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP EXPECTED THURS
AND FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY
IMPACTS THE AREA LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 35 47 38 44 44 / 30 20 50 50 20
VICTORIA 33 47 36 42 41 / 30 10 50 50 20
LAREDO 38 46 39 52 47 / 10 10 20 10 10
ALICE 35 46 38 45 43 / 20 10 40 40 20
ROCKPORT 33 48 39 45 45 / 30 20 50 50 20
COTULLA 36 49 37 48 44 / 10 10 30 10 10
KINGSVILLE 35 45 38 46 44 / 30 20 50 50 20
NAVY CORPUS 37 46 41 45 45 / 30 20 50 50 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...
VICTORIA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
TE/81...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
548 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH (WHICH IS VERY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST)...CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR AT KCRP...KVCT AND KALI BUT BE
MVFR AT KLRD. CIGS WILL FALL RAPIDLY AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS...BUT
MAY TAKE A BIT OF TIME AT KLRD (BASED ON SATELLITE AND GUIDANCE).
FRONT ALREADY THROUGH KVCT AND SHOULD BE THROUGH REMAINDER OF
TERMINALS BY 02Z (AND PROBABLY EARLIER). SOME SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARY
EXPECTED...BUT THUNDER UNLIKELY BASED ON CAP WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD THUNDER IN CHECK. RATHER WINDY TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOA
20 KNOTS AND GUSTS AOA 30 KNOTS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AT KLRD.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR...THEN VFR (BUT STILL CIGS) DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS AND GUSTS FINALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. FRONT
SHOULD ENTER THE AREA IN AN HOUR OR TWO AND MOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS FAR OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...WITH NO THUNDER
REPORTED YET. THINK LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ALONG OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TUMBLE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY BE ABOUT 40 TO 45 DEGREES COOLER MONDAY MORNING
COMPARED TO RIGHT NOW. IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER TEMPS...STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE EXISTS BETWEEN MAV/MET WIND SPEEDS WITH
THE MAV SUGGESTING WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. TEMPERED WIND SPEEDS
A BIT BUT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NONETHELESS WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY COULD BECOME NECESSARY IF
SPEEDS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AN ISSUE THOUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION
WHERE WC VALUES WILL FALL BETWEEN 20 AND 25 AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SOMETHING ALSO
WORTH MONITORING WILL BE THE PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE HRRR HAS DEVELOPED PRECIP OVER MUCH OF
SOUTH TEXAS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT HAVE KEPT
SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
40S ON MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RAMP BACK UP ON MONDAY NIGHT AS
850MB FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN BECOMES
ESTABLISHED.
MARINE...VERY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BETWEEN 35 AND 40
KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING OVER THE
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD BETWEEN 6 AND 8
FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 8 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING
ON MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...S/W TROUGH AXIS WILL KICK EAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN ZONES AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AN INCREASE IN NVA
SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCES RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AS
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH SKIRTS EAST ACROSS TX. THIS SYSTEM IS PROG TO BE
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE STARVED THAN MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY SYSTEM...AND THUS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NW FLOW FROM SFC TO UPPER LEVELS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SUNNIER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. BRIEF
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY TRANSITIONS TO MERIDIONAL BY THE WEEKEND
WITH BOTH ECMWF/GFS WANTING TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WANTING TO CUT OFF A STRONG H5 LOW ACROSS
NW MEX AND SHIFT IT EAST TOWARDS THE BIG BEND REGION. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR LATTER PERIODS DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PROGRESSES CLOSER. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR TUES WITH ONLY TEMPERED
MODIFICATION ON WEDNESDAY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP EXPECTED THURS
AND FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY
IMPACTS THE AREA LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 35 47 38 44 44 / 30 20 50 50 20
VICTORIA 33 47 36 42 41 / 30 10 50 50 20
LAREDO 38 46 39 52 47 / 10 10 20 10 10
ALICE 35 46 38 45 43 / 20 10 40 40 20
ROCKPORT 33 48 39 45 45 / 30 20 50 50 20
COTULLA 36 49 37 48 44 / 10 10 30 10 10
KINGSVILLE 35 45 38 46 44 / 30 20 50 50 20
NAVY CORPUS 37 46 41 45 45 / 30 20 50 50 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...
VICTORIA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
GW/86...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
525 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH (WHICH IS VERY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST)...CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR AT KCRP...KVCT AND KALI BUT BE
MVFR AT KLRD. CIGS WILL FALL RAPIDLY AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS...BUT
MAY TAKE A BIT OF TIME AT KLRD (BASED ON SATELLITE AND GUIDANCE).
FRONT ALREADY THROUGH KVCT AND SHOULD BE THROUGH REMAINDER OF
TERMINALS BY 02Z (AND PROBABLY EARLIER). SOME SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARY
EXPECTED...BUT THUNDER UNLIKELY BASED ON CAP WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD THUNDER IN CHECK. RATHER WINDY TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOA
20 KNOTS AND GUSTS AOA 30 KNOTS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AT KLRD.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR...THEN VFR (BUT STILL CIGS) DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS AND GUSTS FINALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. FRONT
SHOULD ENTER THE AREA IN AN HOUR OR TWO AND MOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS FAR OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...WITH NO THUNDER
REPORTED YET. THINK LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ALONG OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TUMBLE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY BE ABOUT 40 TO 45 DEGREES COOLER MONDAY MORNING
COMPARED TO RIGHT NOW. IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER TEMPS...STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE EXISTS BETWEEN MAV/MET WIND SPEEDS WITH
THE MAV SUGGESTING WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. TEMPERED WIND SPEEDS
A BIT BUT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NONETHELESS WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY COULD BECOME NECESSARY IF
SPEEDS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AN ISSUE THOUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION
WHERE WC VALUES WILL FALL BETWEEN 20 AND 25 AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SOMETHING ALSO
WORTH MONITORING WILL BE THE PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE HRRR HAS DEVELOPED PRECIP OVER MUCH OF
SOUTH TEXAS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT HAVE KEPT
SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
40S ON MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RAMP BACK UP ON MONDAY NIGHT AS
850MB FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN BECOMES
ESTABLISHED.
MARINE...VERY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BETWEEN 35 AND 40
KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING OVER THE
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD BETWEEN 6 AND 8
FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 8 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING
ON MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...S/W TROUGH AXIS WILL KICK EAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN ZONES AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AN INCREASE IN NVA
SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCES RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AS
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH SKIRTS EAST ACROSS TX. THIS SYSTEM IS PROG TO BE
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE STARVED THAN MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY SYSTEM...AND THUS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NW FLOW FROM SFC TO UPPER LEVELS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SUNNIER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. BRIEF
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY TRANSITIONS TO MERIDIONAL BY THE WEEKEND
WITH BOTH ECMWF/GFS WANTING TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WANTING TO CUT OFF A STRONG H5 LOW ACROSS
NW MEX AND SHIFT IT EAST TOWARDS THE BIG BEND REGION. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR LATTER PERIODS DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PROGRESSES CLOSER. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR TUES WITH ONLY TEMPERED
MODIFICATION ON WEDNESDAY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP EXPECTED THURS
AND FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY
IMPACTS THE AREA LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 35 47 38 44 44 / 30 20 50 50 20
VICTORIA 33 47 36 42 41 / 30 10 50 50 20
LAREDO 38 46 39 52 47 / 10 10 20 10 10
ALICE 35 46 38 45 43 / 20 10 40 40 20
ROCKPORT 33 48 39 45 45 / 30 20 50 50 20
COTULLA 36 49 37 48 44 / 10 10 30 10 10
KINGSVILLE 35 45 38 46 44 / 30 20 50 50 20
NAVY CORPUS 37 46 41 45 45 / 30 20 50 50 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...
VICTORIA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
GW/86...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
409 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
REGARDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS...WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE ADVISORY SOUTH TO A CISCO TO
CLIFTON TO ATHENS LINE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO
PLANO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS. POINTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO SEE IMPACTS FROM LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THESE IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ON ELEVATED SURFACES...IN PART DUE TO
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DETAILS
REGARDING THE FORECAST CONTINUE BELOW:
A 21Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BOUNDARY LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER WHERE MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES
IT WILL STALL OUT BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A
NOTABLE EXCEPTION SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SPIKED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG AN 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE.
WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO 80S ON CONSECUTIVE
DAYS FOR MOST POINTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...SOIL
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM...AND THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
OUR FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TO OUR NORTH...21Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA RANGED FROM THE LOWER TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 20S.
COMPARING THESE TEMPERATURES TO THE MORNING NAM 21Z FORECAST FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATED THAT THE NAM WAS RUNNING 8 TO 10
DEGREES TOO WARM WITH AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT.
UNFORTUNATELY THE NAM IS THE COLDEST OF THE POPULAR OPERATIONAL
FORECAST MODELS...SO THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT SHORT TERM SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH IN THE FORECAST MODELS MOVING
FORWARD. THE RAP IS DOING THE BEST JOB RESOLVING 21Z
TEMPERATURES...BUT THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE RAP
INGESTS NEW DATA EACH HOUR. AT ANY RATE...CONTINUED TO RELY UPON
THE NAM HEAVILY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...JUST LIKE THE
MIDNIGHT CREW...BECAUSE THE NAM IS THE COLDEST AND FASTEST WITH
THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TWO BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA (THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER...THEN THE ARCTIC FRONT TO THE
NORTH) IT WAS DIFFICULT TO TRACK THE SOUTHERN PROGRESS OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF THE RED RIVER FRONT...AND PARTIALLY DUE TO
NORTHERLY WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER NORTH THROUGH KANSAS
MASKING THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRULY ARCTIC AIRMASS.
BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AT 21Z THE FRONT APPEARED TO
BE NEAR A LINE FROM CANADIAN TX TO WATONGA OK TO PONCA CITY OK.
TRACKING THIS FRONT WILL ALSO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A FASTER
OR SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD HAVE DRASTIC IMPACTS ON OUR
FORECAST AND IMPACTS.
TO THE FORECAST...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE RED
RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE DFW AREA
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 AM CST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS WACO
AROUND 7 AM...AND THEN ACROSS PALESTINE AND TEMPLE/KILLEEN AN HOUR
LATER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORT WORTH
CWA BEFORE NOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES. PARAMETERS ARE THERE INDICATIVE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN PLACE CURRENTLY
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR STORMS AND KEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OF
AROUND 50 KTS. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE THE INTERSECTION OF THIS
PARAMETER SPACE IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...PROBABLY
SUPERCELLS OR POSSIBLY MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS ASSUMING STRONG FORCING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR RELEASING THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENERGY INTO STORMS.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE
CAPPING INVERSION IN THE 850 TO 800 MB LAYER...WHICH IS QUITE
STOUT AT 300 TO 400 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR SURFACE
BASED AIR PARCELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE THAT STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
LIFT AND COOL A LARGE CHUNK OF THIS CAPPING INVERSION...HOWEVER
THE CAP APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENTLY IN PLACE UNTIL 2-3 HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THIS BEING THE CASE...THERE WOULD BE NEARLY A ZERO
CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED STORMS AND TORNADOES ACROSS THE CWA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING. DAMAGING WIND MAY BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE ELEVATED
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ANY VERTICAL MOTIONS WITHIN THE FRONTAL
INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMPENED BY HIGH STABILITY. THAT
LEAVES A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL...WHICH CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. LEFT A MENTION OF
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
FOR TOMORROW MORNING AS A RESULT IN OUR GRAPHICAL HAZARD IMAGES.
BEHIND THE FRONT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO 80 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS CHANCES FOR ALL LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE
AT LEAST ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY HIGH
AT THIS TIME. MOST PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS AIR
PARCELS LIFTED FROM THE 900 TO 850 MB LAYER ARE CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST TO HAVE 3-500 J/KG OF POSITIVE CAPE. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNFORTUNATELY
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SPREADS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE CWA. THIS IS
UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THIS TIME WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES BUILDING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE DAY.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT...WE
SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO FREEZING RAIN...TO
FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET TO ALL SLEET THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING ICE
AND SLEET FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO
PLANO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AS THESE LOCATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SPEND MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING. FROM THIS LINE
SOUTH TO A LINE FROM CISCO TO CLIFTON TO ATHENS (THIS INCLUDES THE
DFW METROPLEX)...EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS OF ICE AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION SIMPLY BECAUSE THE SUB-FREEZING AIR IS SLOWER TO
BUILD IN...AND THESE AREAS SAW TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOUT 10 DEGREES
HIGHER TODAY THAN LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN
SO WARM OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. JUST LOOKING AT MODEL OUTPUT AND
FORECAST WATER EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AND CONVERTING THAT
DIRECTLY INTO ICE IS A VERY POOR ESTIMATE OF ICE ACCUMULATION FOR
THIS EVENT BECAUSE SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE CWA. IT WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT OF TIME FOR SOIL
TEMPERATURES TO FALL...MEANING THAT A LARGE PORTION OF ANY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS...EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING...WILL NOT STICK TO THE GROUND. ESTIMATING HOW MUCH
RAINFALL WILL RUN OFF VERSUS HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE AS ICE IS
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. AT THIS TIME FORECAST ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS
ARE APPROXIMATELY 25 PERCENT OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO FALL AS WATER
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.
WHETHER THIS IS AGGRESSIVE OR CONSERVATIVE WILL DEPEND AT LEAST
PARTIALLY ON HOW FAST WE FALL BELOW FREEZING BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. FALLING BELOW FREEZING FASTER THAN EXPECTED WILL RESULT IN
GREATER IMPACTS ON AVERAGE. WE WILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND IF IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
GET COLDER SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER...WE MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE SOME
PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY INTO A WINTER STORM WARNING BEFORE SUNDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS ICE ACCUMULATION
AND IMPACTS MAINLY RELEGATED TO ELEVATED SURFACES...WHICH IS WHY A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AND NOT A WINTER STORM
WARNING AT THIS TIME. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONE TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH...MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
WITH MOST ATTENTION FOCUSED ON SUNDAYS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINTER
WEATHER...HERE IS A QUICK SUMMARY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST:
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL
NIGHT...MEANING ANY RESIDUAL WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE UP
CAUSING ADDITIONAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
MONDAY MORNING WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE ZERO TO MINUS 5 DEGREES
FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...ASSUMING THIS DOES NOT CHANGE IN FUTURE
FORECASTS...WE WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE VERY COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES.
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS OF THE DAY. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CLOSELY IN CASE IMPACTS ARE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. CURRENTLY...ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.
WE WILL WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT HAVE LOW RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH YET ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE REGION. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AT
THIS TIME.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 36 39 16 36 24 / 60 80 10 0 10
WACO, TX 59 63 20 41 29 / 20 80 10 0 10
PARIS, TX 35 38 11 34 22 / 60 90 30 0 10
DENTON, TX 32 33 14 34 21 / 60 80 10 0 10
MCKINNEY, TX 33 35 13 34 19 / 60 80 20 0 10
DALLAS, TX 38 41 16 37 25 / 50 80 10 0 10
TERRELL, TX 44 52 15 36 23 / 50 80 20 0 10
CORSICANA, TX 59 62 18 38 26 / 30 80 20 0 10
TEMPLE, TX 66 67 21 42 30 / 10 80 10 0 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 32 33 14 36 23 / 50 80 10 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-144>146.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
346 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...
HARSH CHANGES AWAIT THE SOUTH PLAINS FOLLOWING OUR LATE SPRING-LIKE
WARMTH OF TODAY. ONE NEED ONLY LOOK AT THE 21Z STATE TEMPS THAT
RANGED FROM 91 IN BRADY TO JUST THE LOWER 20S IN PERRYTON...NOT FAR
FROM SNOW ALREADY OBSERVED IN THE OK PANHANDLE! STATIONARY FRONT AT
21Z STRETCHED FROM HAPPY SOUTHEAST TO FLOYDADA AND JAYTON. 88D
ALREADY SHOWS THIS FRONT EDGING SOUTHWESTWARD AND THIS TREND WILL
ONLY ACCELERATE IN THE COMING HOURS AS AN AXIS OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. RUC HAS BEEN QUITE SOLID
TODAY WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND INDICATES COLD FROPA AT LUBBOCK NEAR
SUNSET. TEMPORARY DILUTION OF STRATUS NEAR CHILDRESS SHOULD RESUME
IN THE COMING HOURS AND GRADUALLY EXPAND SWWD TONIGHT.
BRUNT OF THE FORECAST CHALLENGE DOES NOT CONCERN THE FRONT...BUT
RATHER AN AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS
SRN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A DECAYING UPPER LOW IN SRN
CALIFORNIA. LATEST MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS MOISTURE RATHER
WELL...BUT CONSIDERING THE PARENT LOW WILL BE DISSOLVING INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT...THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH
OF THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE CAN TRANSLATE INTO PRECIP FOR OUR AREA? WE
ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE SETUP...BUT DO
ACKNOWLEDGE A WINDOW FROM 12Z TO 18Z WHEN BOTH LIFT AND DEEPENING
SATURATION LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHT PRECIP. AS THE MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX TRACKS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NWRN COUNTIES BY SUN AFTN...LIFT
SHOULD BE BOLSTERED AS IT ENCOUNTERS ELEVATED FN FORCING TRAILING
OUR SURFACE FRONT. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX...OUR SERN
COUNTIES LOOK TO MISS OUT ON THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES...SO POPS HAVE
BEEN REDUCED HERE WHILE BUMPING UP TO LIKELY MENTION N-NW OF LUBBOCK.
PRECIP PHASE IS THE NEXT CHALLENGE...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS A WHOLE
INSIST ON KEEPING SOME DEGREE OF A WARM NOSE PRESENT ALOFT WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUSTAIN A WINTRY MIX LONGER THAN WE/D CARE TO SEE. WE
DID SIDE A BIT COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE AIRMASS INVOLVED...SO
THIS RESULTS IN A BROADER COVERAGE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
AND SLEET. ALL SNOW MAY BE HARD TO COME BY SO LONG AS WE RETAIN SOME
MELTING ALOFT. ALSO...THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE
SMALL AS THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY DEEPEN WITH TIME AND TIP THE SCALES
IN FAVOR OF SLEET. GROUND TEMPS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
ICING...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMS OF SLEET AND A THIN
GLAZE OF ICE ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED IN OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES WHERE WE HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY.
CLIMATOLOGY ALSO TENDS TO FAVOR THESE AREAS FOR WINTRY PRECIP IN
THESE SITUATIONS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST
THE ADVISORY IF NEEDED. LASTLY...WE CONTINUED TO SCALE BACK MAX
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY IN LIGHT OF ABUNDANT STRATUS AND DEEPENING COLD
AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM...
AFTER A QUICK ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER SUNDAY...THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY BENIGN...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TWO SEPARATE STORM
SYSTEMS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
BEGINNING TOMORROW EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED...HOWEVER THE COLD AIR WILL
UNFORTUNATELY LINGER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WHILE
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT AT RECOVERY ACROSS
AT LEAST THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON... TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
REGION...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST...TO THE LOW 30S IN THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
SUBDUED...GRADUAL MODERATION WILL BEGIN TUESDAY UNDER A REGIME OF
WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS...WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF STUBBORN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. FROM
HERE...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE STATUS QUO...MORE OR LESS...BY
SENDING A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE OPEN SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN WOULD LIKELY YIELD LITTLE MORE THAN
DRY...MILD COLD FRONTS ACROSS WEST TEXAS...AND AS OF NOW IS THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION GOING FORWARD. ON THE OTHER HAND... THE ECMWF
IS MUCH DEEPER AND SLOWER IN ITS DEPICTION OF UPPER WAVES ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. LIKEWISE...THIS
DEPICTION WOULD RESULT IN MUCH GREATER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IF IT WERE TO PAN OUT. FOR NOW THOUGH...THIS FORECAST WILL OPT TO
SIDE WITH THE DRIER GFS UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS IS REACHED AMONG
OPERATIONAL MODELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 33 33 16 48 26 / 30 60 0 0 0
TULIA 26 28 12 42 25 / 20 60 10 0 0
PLAINVIEW 27 30 12 43 25 / 10 60 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 34 34 18 45 26 / 10 60 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 29 31 15 43 25 / 10 50 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 38 46 19 48 27 / 10 40 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 35 36 18 46 26 / 10 40 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 22 25 9 33 22 / 10 40 10 0 0
SPUR 27 29 11 38 23 / 10 30 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 29 29 10 38 23 / 20 20 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>030.
&&
$$
93/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
534 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW CIGS AND VISBYS WERE RAPIDLY APPROACHING KCDS. LOW
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS HOWEVER THE
LOW CIGS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN. IT IS LIKELY THAT LOW CIGS WILL LAST
AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING BUT THEIR RESIDENCE COULD BE EXTENDED
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN TO THE
TERMINAL...THEY WILL LIKELY BE IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BY LATE IN THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON THE CEILING HEIGHT IS ANTICIPATED
TO RISE NEAR MVFR. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT
KLBB WITH SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
BLOWING DUST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BRINGING ADDITIONAL LOW CIGS TO BOTH TERMINALS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THIS FORECAST WAS COMPLICATED WITH A TOUGH ROW TO HOE. THE FIRST
ISSUE TO DEAL WITH WAS THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOSING IN ON THE
AREA BOTH FROM THE EAST AND NORTH. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MAKE ADDITIONAL
PROGRESS WESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL
LIKELY BE A GOOD DIVIDING POINT BETWEEN CLEAR SKIES AND THE LOW
STRATUS LAYER. THE CLOUDS THEN PRESENT A PROBLEM WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MOST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS LOW STRATUS HANGING OUT FOR THE ENTIRE MORNING. IN
FACT...THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LOW STRATUS CAMPING OUT
NEAR CHILDRESS. THE LATER SITUATION WOULD CLEARLY KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING VERY MUCH AT CHILDRESS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONTS
WESTWARD PROGRESSION WILL BE HALTED BY A CLOSED LOW MOVING ONSHORE
IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE FRONT RETREATING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON BUMPING UP
WINDS INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY AGAIN. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE MARKEDLY
LOWER THAN OBSERVED YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH STILL BETWEEN 30 AND 40KT AT
700MB. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MAY KEEP ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING FROM REACHING ITS FULL POTENTIAL TODAY BUT IT WILL STILL
NONETHELESS BE BREEZY. DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO SURFACE CONDITIONS LIKELY DRIER THAN
WHAT MODELS ADVERTISE AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL INCREASE FROM THE TRANS PECOS EXTENDING INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE.
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO EXERT INFLUENCE OVER WEST TEXAS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER WEST. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A 110KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING OVERHEAD. NEAR SURFACE
CONDITIONS WILL SEE A MASHUP OF BOTH THE ARCTIC FRONT AND PACIFIC
FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE CLEARLY
DEFINED AREAS OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
FAIRLY SATURATED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE
SOUTHWEST EDGES CLOSER. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION. ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE FRONT...COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AT THE LOWEST
LEVELS WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO MOST LIKELY A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE IN THE NEAR SURFACE
SUB FREEZING LAYER APPROACHES AND MAY EXCEED -10C. IN
CONTRAST...EAST OF THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CREATE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THE
BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN EAST...THERE WILL ALSO EXIST A POTENTIAL
FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM...
QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
CENTRAL COAST WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE
TONIGHT THEN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. A GLACIAL AIRMASS
MEANWHILE WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
COULD BE POISED TO SWEEP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE RATE OF DECAY
OF THE CALIFORNIA SYSTEM WILL BE KEY IN DE TERMING EVERY ASPECT OF
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. AND EVEN THOUGH SOLUTIONS SEEM SIMILAR ALOFT
IN THIS ASPECT THEY TOY WITH US IN A VARIETY OF MANNERS REGARDING
FRONTAL MOVEMENT...THERMAL CONTOURING...PRECIPITATION AREAS...
AMOUNTS...AND TYPES. OUR AREA SEEMS TO BE GROUND ZERO FOR THE
MODEL DISSENT GIVING RISE TO ANY NUMBER OF OUTCOMES SUNDAY
RANGING FROM FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL...FOG
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE EAST-NORTHEAST...AND MAYBE EVEN A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER HERE AND THERE. AND OF COURSE PRECIPITATION COULD
TOTALLY DISAPPOINT SHOULD THE SYSTEM PASSING ALOFT REMAIN TOO WEAK
OR IF VERY DRY AIR DOMINATES THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
THIS COMPLEX AND LOW CONFIDENCE ENVIRONMENT LENDS ITSELF TO A
SOMEWHAT SIMPLIFIED FORECAST. IN PARTICULAR WE BLENDED THE
WRF/NAM AND GFS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ON SUNDAY WHICH GAVE FAIRLY
UNIFORM CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE AREA. THEN...WE SIDED WITH THE
MOST RECENT BLEND OF FRONTAL POSITIONS FAVORING THE FRONT
STRUGGLING TO MANEUVER THROUGH THE INCREASED WESTERLY COMPONENTS
EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THIS FORCED
US TO ADJUST THE FRONT A BIT TO THE EAST WITH 35 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ALSO...WE CONSIDERED POTENTIAL
LIFT FROM A SLOPED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR LOCAL SIGNIFICANT TOTALS
SHOULD SYSTEM REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE VIGOROUS. BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN
PINPOINTING THESE AREAS WAS LOW. SO WE ALSO SIMPLIFIED POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPES FAVORING GENERALLY WARM PHASE
SOUTHWEST...FREEZING EAST...AND CHANGE TO FROZEN NORTH.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EJECT BY LATE SUNDAY WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD. VERY COLD DUMP LASTING INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH
SLOW MODERATION BEYOND. GENERAL FLAT PATTERN ALOFT ALTHOUGH A FEW
WAVES PASSING EARLY TO MID WEEK MAY NEED CONSIDERATION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF THE LINGERING COLD AIR...
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN DOMINANT. RMCQUEEN
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING WILL BRING STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THESE
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 80F. VERY DRY
AIR WILL STAY IN PLACE WHICH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 75 36 36 15 47 / 0 30 40 10 0
TULIA 73 26 30 13 40 / 0 20 30 10 0
PLAINVIEW 76 29 33 13 41 / 0 10 30 10 0
LEVELLAND 80 39 50 17 45 / 0 10 30 10 0
LUBBOCK 82 36 44 16 42 / 0 10 30 10 0
DENVER CITY 79 40 58 19 46 / 0 10 30 0 0
BROWNFIELD 81 39 53 17 44 / 0 10 30 10 0
CHILDRESS 61 24 26 11 32 / 0 20 30 0 0
SPUR 80 28 32 14 36 / 0 10 30 10 0
ASPERMONT 84 28 30 13 36 / 0 20 30 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ027-033-034-039-040.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
453 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...
THIS FORECAST WAS COMPLICATED WITH A TOUGH ROW TO HOE. THE FIRST
ISSUE TO DEAL WITH WAS THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOSING IN ON THE
AREA BOTH FROM THE EAST AND NORTH. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MAKE ADDITIONAL
PROGRESS WESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL
LIKELY BE A GOOD DIVIDING POINT BETWEEN CLEAR SKIES AND THE LOW
STRATUS LAYER. THE CLOUDS THEN PRESENT A PROBLEM WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MOST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS LOW STRATUS HANGING OUT FOR THE ENTIRE MORNING. IN
FACT...THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LOW STRATUS CAMPING OUT
NEAR CHILDRESS. THE LATER SITUATION WOULD CLEARLY KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING VERY MUCH AT CHILDRESS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONTS
WESTWARD PROGRESSION WILL BE HALTED BY A CLOSED LOW MOVING ONSHORE
IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE FRONT RETREATING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON BUMPING UP
WINDS INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY AGAIN. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE MARKEDLY
LOWER THAN OBSERVED YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH STILL BETWEEN 30 AND 40KT AT
700MB. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MAY KEEP ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING FROM REACHING ITS FULL POTENTIAL TODAY BUT IT WILL STILL
NONETHELESS BE BREEZY. DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO SURFACE CONDITIONS LIKELY DRIER THAN
WHAT MODELS ADVERTISE AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL INCREASE FROM THE TRANS PECOS EXTENDING INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE.
BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO EXERT INFLUENCE OVER WEST TEXAS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
FARTHER WEST. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A 110KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING OVERHEAD. NEAR SURFACE
CONDITIONS WILL SEE A MASHUP OF BOTH THE ARCTIC FRONT AND PACIFIC
FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE CLEARLY
DEFINED AREAS OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
FAIRLY SATURATED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE
SOUTHWEST EDGES CLOSER. AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION. ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE FRONT...COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AT THE LOWEST
LEVELS WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO MOST LIKELY A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE IN THE NEAR SURFACE
SUB FREEZING LAYER APPROACHES AND MAY EXCEED -10C. IN
CONTRAST...EAST OF THE AREA...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CREATE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THE
BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN EAST...THERE WILL ALSO EXIST A POTENTIAL
FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM...
QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
CENTRAL COAST WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE
TONIGHT THEN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. A GLACIAL AIRMASS
MEANWHILE WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
COULD BE POISED TO SWEEP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE RATE OF DECAY
OF THE CALIFORNIA SYSTEM WILL BE KEY IN DE TERMING EVERY ASPECT OF
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. AND EVEN THOUGH SOLUTIONS SEEM SIMILAR ALOFT
IN THIS ASPECT THEY TOY WITH US IN A VARIETY OF MANNERS REGARDING
FRONTAL MOVEMENT...THERMAL CONTOURING...PRECIPITATION AREAS...
AMOUNTS...AND TYPES. OUR AREA SEEMS TO BE GROUND ZERO FOR THE
MODEL DISSENT GIVING RISE TO ANY NUMBER OF OUTCOMES SUNDAY
RANGING FROM FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL...FOG
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE EAST-NORTHEAST...AND MAYBE EVEN A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER HERE AND THERE. AND OF COURSE PRECIPITATION COULD
TOTALLY DISAPPOINT SHOULD THE SYSTEM PASSING ALOFT REMAIN TOO WEAK
OR IF VERY DRY AIR DOMINATES THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
THIS COMPLEX AND LOW CONFIDENCE ENVIRONMENT LENDS ITSELF TO A
SOMEWHAT SIMPLIFIED FORECAST. IN PARTICULAR WE BLENDED THE
WRF/NAM AND GFS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ON SUNDAY WHICH GAVE FAIRLY
UNIFORM CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE AREA. THEN...WE SIDED WITH THE
MOST RECENT BLEND OF FRONTAL POSITIONS FAVORING THE FRONT
STRUGGLING TO MANEUVER THROUGH THE INCREASED WESTERLY COMPONENTS
EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THIS FORCED
US TO ADJUST THE FRONT A BIT TO THE EAST WITH 35 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ALSO...WE CONSIDERED POTENTIAL
LIFT FROM A SLOPED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR LOCAL SIGNIFICANT TOTALS
SHOULD SYSTEM REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE VIGOROUS. BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN
PINPOINTING THESE AREAS WAS LOW. SO WE ALSO SIMPLIFIED POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPES FAVORING GENERALLY WARM PHASE
SOUTHWEST...FREEZING EAST...AND CHANGE TO FROZEN NORTH.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EJECT BY LATE SUNDAY WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD. VERY COLD DUMP LASTING INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH
SLOW MODERATION BEYOND. GENERAL FLAT PATTERN ALOFT ALTHOUGH A FEW
WAVES PASSING EARLY TO MID WEEK MAY NEED CONSIDERATION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF THE LINGERING COLD AIR...
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN DOMINANT. RMCQUEEN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING WILL BRING STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THESE
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 80F. VERY DRY
AIR WILL STAY IN PLACE WHICH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 75 36 36 15 47 / 0 30 40 10 0
TULIA 73 26 30 13 40 / 0 20 30 10 0
PLAINVIEW 76 29 33 13 41 / 0 10 30 10 0
LEVELLAND 80 39 50 17 45 / 0 10 30 10 0
LUBBOCK 82 36 46 16 42 / 0 10 30 10 0
DENVER CITY 79 40 58 19 46 / 0 10 30 0 0
BROWNFIELD 81 39 53 17 44 / 0 10 30 10 0
CHILDRESS 63 24 26 11 32 / 0 20 30 0 0
SPUR 80 28 32 14 36 / 0 10 30 10 0
ASPERMONT 84 28 30 13 36 / 0 20 30 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ027-033-034-039-040.
&&
$$
01/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1156 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING BEHIND IT.
LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY NEARING KGUY...AND IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
FILL IN AT KGUY OVERNIGHT AND LAST INTO LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR FOR A TIME AT KGUY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE QUICKLY
DETERIORATING AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS CIGS FALL AND
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF -FZRA.
FOR KAMA AND KDHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH AND
WEST THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MAKE IT OVERNIGHT. DO THINK THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT INTO KDHT AND HAVE INTRODUCED SOME IFR CONDITIONS
ACCORDINGLY. KAMA LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE WITH SOME VERY
SHALLOW MOISTENING DEPICTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THUS HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG...BUT CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY
GO LOWER THAN THIS IN THE 11-15Z TIMEFRAME. INCREASING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG AT KAMA AND
KDHT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH SOME -RA POSSIBLE.
KB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014/
UPDATE...
ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW APPEARS CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND MODEL LOW-LEVEL RH
PROGS...SREF VSBY PROBS...AND HRRR VSBY PROGS ALL SUPPORT THIS. MAY
SEE A FETCH OF LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS WORK INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OK PANHANDLE...LIMITING THE FOG THREAT AND SUPPORTING MORE OF A LOW
CLOUD SCENARIO IN THESE AREAS /AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
DZ OR FZDZ TOWARD DAYBREAK IF THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER DEEPENS
ENOUGH IN THIS FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA/. FARTHER SOUTH
HOWEVER...FOG LOOKS LIKE A BETTER BET ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL A LITTLE BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES...BUT WARM GROUND TEMPS FROM
THE RECENT WARM STRETCH SHOULD PREVENT ANY REAL ICING PROBLEMS ON
ROADWAYS. NOT TO MENTION...THE GREATER PROBABILITIES OF DENSER FOG
APPEAR TO BE FARTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.
KB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THROUGH TONIGHT: AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL OOZE ITS WAY INTO THE
PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING. BEHIND THE FRONT, LOW
CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PANHANDLES. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY DEEPEN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
JUST ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IF THE DRIZZLE IS IN THE FROZEN
FORM, IT SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS AS GROUND TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN RATHER WARM LATELY. NONETHELESS, IT COULD STICK TO
ELEVATED AND METAL SURFACES.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW, AND WE`RE A LITTLE CONCERNED THE FRONT COULD
SEEP FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WE`RE CURRENTLY FORECASTING. LIKE
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED, IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAR TOO WARM OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE ALONG
THE FRONT SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES MAY VARY BY NEARLY 40 DEGREES
WITHIN A 50-MILE DISTANCE. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN INCREASING TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS, POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORM,
MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS AFTER 2
PM. THESE HIGH-BASED SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO
45 MPH BENEATH THEM, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, FORCING FOR ASCENT STRENGTHENS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES
SOUTHWARD, ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN WITH TIME FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER FORCING,
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
VERY DIFFICULT AS THE NAM REMAINS THE FASTEST AND DEEPEST WITH THE
ARCTIC AIR. IN FACT, IF THE NAM IS CORRECT, SNOW WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ESSENTIALLY
BECOMES THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, ALL OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS DEEP AND FAST WITH
THE COLD AIR, MAKING FOR A MESSY PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST. AS A
RESULT, WE THINK WE`LL INITIALLY SEE RAIN CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN
AND THEN FINE SNOW GRAINS AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS. ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SNOW FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS BECOMES FULLY ENTRENCHED, BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET CAN`T
BE RULED OUT SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 40
IN THE SOUTHWEST (NEAR SUNRISE) TO THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST.
THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW MAY
OCCUR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN
INCH. HOWEVER, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PART OR ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BLOWING SNOW
COULD ALSO LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SOME DRIFTING.
LONG TERM...
THE GFS IS DEPICTING SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FREEZING
FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS A
LITTLE LOW TO INSERT INTO THE FORECAST CURRENTLY.
MONDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS DEPICTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER SOME PRECIP MAY BE
POSSIBLE A BIT NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WHERE THE FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SPLIT FLOW JET
OVERLAP.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TUESDAY AND MOST OF
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A BROAD TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON WHERE THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR. THE ECMWF IS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP WHILE THE GFS IS A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE.
THE FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE DRY GFS.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HINTED AT SOME PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY BUT
THESE CHANCES HAVE BEEN PUSHED BACK TO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE GFS AND
INTO SATURDAY FOR THE ECMWF.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DROP TO 18 TO 20 PERCENT. TWENTY FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE INTO THE 17 TO 25 MPH RANGE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF THIS COMING WEEK...NEITHER ELEVATED NOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
.AVIATION...
A FRONT HAS SAGGED THROUGH KCDS WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN ITS
WAKE. THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO KLBB TOWARD 11-12Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR AT KLBB...BUT KCDS IS LIKELY TO SEE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP AROUND THIS SAME TIME...WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THESE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
AT KCDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE THE CLOUDS/FOG
LIFT/SCATTER AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND
A STRONGER FRONTAL SURGE. KLBB WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
TAF CYCLE...BUT WILL SEE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MATERIALIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DECREASING IN THE EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014/
UPDATE...
A WEAK FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF BACK-DOORING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST...WITH CHILDRESS AND NORTHFIELD ALREADY EXPERIENCING
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ON ITS
SOUTHWESTWARD PUSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL STALLING OVER
THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...THEN RETREATING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TAP INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ALONG THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...THE PROSPECTS FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...LIKELY AFTER 09Z. THIS LOW CLOUD AND
FOG DECK COULD ADVANCE AS FAR WESTWARD AS ROUGHLY A DIMMITT TO
PLAINVIEW TO ASPERMONT LINE BY MID-MORNING BEFORE
THINNING...LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA IN THE 09-16Z TIME-FRAME. EARLY
ON...SKY GRIDS WERE DECREASED GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT WERE BOOSTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES
AFTER 09Z AS THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN. ASIDE
FROM THE WEATHER AND SKY GRIDS...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE
TO THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT AND RH GRIDS. THE UPGRADED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014/
UPDATE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING BRINGING
AN END TO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION. THUS...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014/
SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWING A COMPACT S/W TROUGH THAT GENERATED TSTORMS IN PARTS OF
THE TX PANHANDLE LAST NIGHT...THE AXIS OF STRONG WESTERLY WINDS HAVE
SINCE EXITED THE FORECAST AREA ON SCHEDULE. THESE WINDS DID RESULT
IN A BIT MORE DRAMA THAN EXPECTED THANKS TO A 59 MPH GUST AS
MEASURED BY THE GRAHAM WEST TX MESONET...BUT AS A WHOLE THE BLOWING
DUST THIS MORNING WAS NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THE HARDY RESIDENTS THAT
FREQUENT THESE PARTS.
ALREADY BY SUNSET...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE EDGING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WELL AHEAD OF A BROODING ARCTIC HIGH
STILL POISED IN THE WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. DO BELIEVE THE
NON-RUC GUIDANCE IS TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FRONT/S PROGRESS
TONIGHT...SO HAVE EDGED LOW TEMPS DOWN A BIT ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WHERE THE RUC HAS THIS BOUNDARY ROUGHLY
STALLING BY DAYBREAK. THIS BOUNDARY HOWEVER WILL RETREAT BY LATE
MORNING AS WINDS ALOFT BACK SWLY AND AMPLIFY MODESTLY AHEAD OF
SUNDAY/S UPPER TROUGH. AS WE SAW TODAY...EARLIER MODELS WERE MUCH
TOO MOIST WITH 2M DEWPOINTS...BUT THIS WAS EXPECTED IN PRIOR
FORECASTS AND WE CONTINUE TO EMPLOY THIS RATIONALE WITH TOMORROW/S
SETUP BEHIND THE RETREATING FRONT. NUDGED HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES ON
THE CAPROCK WHERE THE DRIEST AIR WILL BE FOUND AND THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT WE
SAW TODAY.
LONG TERM...
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE SATURDAY. WHAT IS
CURRENTLY A WOUND-UP SPIRAL OFF THE COAST WILL BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO BAJA. NORTH OF THE BORDER...A COMPLEX
ELONGATED LOW SPANNING MUCH OF CANADA IS LATITUDINALLY ORIENTED
AROUND 55N. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE WEST COAST TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBTLE EMBEDDED
TROUGH INTO MONDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...YET ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES AND STARTS TO DEEPEN BEFORE DIVING INTO THE GULF COAST
SATES LATE WEEK. OUR FINAL TROUGH OF THE EXTENDED APPROACHES ON
FRIDAY.
YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SNEAKS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
MAKING FCST HIGHS QUITE TRICKY AS THE BOUNDARY HANGS UP FOR SEVERAL
HOURS ACROSS THE CWFA. THEN...WITH THE FALL OF NIGHT...THE COLDER
AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THERE
IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION.
MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND QUITE COOL BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS UP
ON TUESDAY QUICKLY REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES THOUGH PERHAPS REMAINING
A FEW DEGREES SHY OF CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN ONE
MORE DAY BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW PICKS UP FOR THURSDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF FIRE WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK.
YET ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR ENTERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS DAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
HAVE SINCE DEPARTED THE REGION...BUT 20-FOOT SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM AT WHICH POINT THE RED FLAG WARNING SHOULD
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT WILL
PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BEFORE RETREATING NORTHEAST BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. ELEVATED TO
MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ON THE CAPROCK AS SOUTHWEST WINDS RISE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH MIN RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER-TO-MID TEENS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 36 75 32 34 12 / 0 0 20 30 10
TULIA 37 75 25 29 10 / 0 0 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 39 77 27 32 11 / 0 0 10 20 10
LEVELLAND 39 80 33 45 15 / 0 0 10 20 10
LUBBOCK 38 80 29 40 14 / 0 0 10 20 10
DENVER CITY 44 79 36 54 20 / 0 0 10 20 10
BROWNFIELD 42 80 34 46 18 / 0 0 10 20 10
CHILDRESS 37 68 24 25 10 / 0 0 10 20 10
SPUR 39 80 25 34 13 / 0 0 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 39 83 25 31 12 / 0 0 20 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/33/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1009 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
.UPDATE...
A WEAK FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF BACK-DOORING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST...WITH CHILDRESS AND NORTHFIELD ALREADY EXPERIENCING
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ON ITS
SOUTHWESTWARD PUSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL STALLING OVER
THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...THEN RETREATING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TAP INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ALONG THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...THE PROSPECTS FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...LIKELY AFTER 09Z. THIS LOW CLOUD AND
FOG DECK COULD ADVANCE AS FAR WESTWARD AS ROUGHLY A DIMMITT TO
PLAINVIEW TO ASPERMONT LINE BY MID-MORNING BEFORE
THINNING...LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA IN THE 09-16Z TIME-FRAME. EARLY
ON...SKY GRIDS WERE DECREASED GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT WERE BOOSTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES
AFTER 09Z AS THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN. ASIDE
FROM THE WEATHER AND SKY GRIDS...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE
TO THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT AND RH GRIDS. THE UPGRADED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014/
UPDATE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING BRINGING
AN END TO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION. THUS...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z.
AVIATION...
GUSTY WINDS AT KLBB WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KCDS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THIS FRONT MAY BRIEFLY
EDGE THROUGH KLBB BY 10-12Z WITH AN EASTERLY WIND SHIFT...BUT
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE TERMINAL BY AROUND
MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. AT KCDS...EASTERLY WINDS WILL WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AT KCDS BY AROUND 12Z. IF CLOUDS DO
FORM...THEY COULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE
LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT. CURRENTLY HAVE INDICATED A MVFR DECK
AT KCDS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE CLOUDS COULD BE LOWER...IN THE
IFR TO LIFR CATEGORY. AT KLBB...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014/
SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWING A COMPACT S/W TROUGH THAT GENERATED TSTORMS IN PARTS OF
THE TX PANHANDLE LAST NIGHT...THE AXIS OF STRONG WESTERLY WINDS HAVE
SINCE EXITED THE FORECAST AREA ON SCHEDULE. THESE WINDS DID RESULT
IN A BIT MORE DRAMA THAN EXPECTED THANKS TO A 59 MPH GUST AS
MEASURED BY THE GRAHAM WEST TX MESONET...BUT AS A WHOLE THE BLOWING
DUST THIS MORNING WAS NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THE HARDY RESIDENTS THAT
FREQUENT THESE PARTS.
ALREADY BY SUNSET...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE EDGING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WELL AHEAD OF A BROODING ARCTIC HIGH
STILL POISED IN THE WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. DO BELIEVE THE
NON-RUC GUIDANCE IS TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FRONT/S PROGRESS
TONIGHT...SO HAVE EDGED LOW TEMPS DOWN A BIT ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WHERE THE RUC HAS THIS BOUNDARY ROUGHLY
STALLING BY DAYBREAK. THIS BOUNDARY HOWEVER WILL RETREAT BY LATE
MORNING AS WINDS ALOFT BACK SWLY AND AMPLIFY MODESTLY AHEAD OF
SUNDAY/S UPPER TROUGH. AS WE SAW TODAY...EARLIER MODELS WERE MUCH
TOO MOIST WITH 2M DEWPOINTS...BUT THIS WAS EXPECTED IN PRIOR
FORECASTS AND WE CONTINUE TO EMPLOY THIS RATIONALE WITH TOMORROW/S
SETUP BEHIND THE RETREATING FRONT. NUDGED HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES ON
THE CAPROCK WHERE THE DRIEST AIR WILL BE FOUND AND THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT WE
SAW TODAY.
LONG TERM...
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE SATURDAY. WHAT IS
CURRENTLY A WOUND-UP SPIRAL OFF THE COAST WILL BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO BAJA. NORTH OF THE BORDER...A COMPLEX
ELONGATED LOW SPANNING MUCH OF CANADA IS LATITUDINALLY ORIENTED
AROUND 55N. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE WEST COAST TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBTLE EMBEDDED
TROUGH INTO MONDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...YET ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES AND STARTS TO DEEPEN BEFORE DIVING INTO THE GULF COAST
SATES LATE WEEK. OUR FINAL TROUGH OF THE EXTENDED APPROACHES ON
FRIDAY.
YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SNEAKS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
MAKING FCST HIGHS QUITE TRICKY AS THE BOUNDARY HANGS UP FOR SEVERAL
HOURS ACROSS THE CWFA. THEN...WITH THE FALL OF NIGHT...THE COLDER
AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THERE
IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION.
MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND QUITE COOL BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS UP
ON TUESDAY QUICKLY REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES THOUGH PERHAPS REMAINING
A FEW DEGREES SHY OF CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN ONE
MORE DAY BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW PICKS UP FOR THURSDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF FIRE WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK.
YET ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR ENTERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS DAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
HAVE SINCE DEPARTED THE REGION...BUT 20-FOOT SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM AT WHICH POINT THE RED FLAG WARNING SHOULD
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT WILL
PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BEFORE RETREATING NORTHEAST BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. ELEVATED TO
MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ON THE CAPROCK AS SOUTHWEST WINDS RISE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH MIN RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER-TO-MID TEENS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 36 75 32 34 12 / 0 0 20 30 10
TULIA 37 75 25 29 10 / 0 0 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 39 77 27 32 11 / 0 0 10 20 10
LEVELLAND 39 80 33 45 15 / 0 0 10 20 10
LUBBOCK 38 80 29 40 14 / 0 0 10 20 10
DENVER CITY 44 79 36 54 20 / 0 0 10 20 10
BROWNFIELD 42 80 34 46 18 / 0 0 10 20 10
CHILDRESS 37 68 24 25 10 / 0 0 10 20 10
SPUR 39 80 25 34 13 / 0 0 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 39 83 25 31 12 / 0 0 20 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
703 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COLD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE HIGH...WITH READINGS A
FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ZERO DEGREE MARK. WIND CHILL
VALUES REMAIN IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AT MANY LOCATIONS OVER EAST-
CENTRAL/CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHER THAN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH
OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...THOUGH CIRRUS FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM
STORM SYSTEM IS CROSSING THE BORDER INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. OTHER
LOW STRATUS IS DRIFTING SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN SHORELINE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS ARE THE MAIN
FOCUS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES EAST TONITE.
TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE MOISTURE THAT IS APPROACHING NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR DRYING UP AS IT RUNS INTO THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW FEW TO SCT SKY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN CASE A LITTLE MOISTURE IS PICKED UP OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE NAM IS DEVELOPING A LAKE INDUCED
SURFACE TROUGH UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...MAY SEE SCT LAKE CLOUDS MOVE JUST INLAND ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD FLURRIES
INTO THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE THAT HAPPENING. THE OTHER ISSUE
IS TEMPS/WIND CHILL HEADLINES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AND THEN SLACKENS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH. CONDITIONS ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
DECOUPLING THAN LAST NIGHT AND WILL SHOW THAT TREND OCCURRING MAINLY
AFTER 06Z. THIS MAKES FOR A DILEMMA IN REGARDS TO WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...WHICH REQUIRE AT 3 KTS OF WIND. THINK THERE COULD BE A
FEW HOUR PERIOD OF WIND CHILL CRITERIA BEING MET BEFORE WINDS BECOME
CALM WITH VALUES FALLING BETWEEN 20 TO 30 BELOW. TOUGH TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT HEADLINES WITH SUCH A SHORT DURATION EVENT...EVEN
THOUGH THE CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE TANKING TEMPERATURES. AFTER
COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO ISSUE WIND CHILLS
HEADLINES TO KEEP THE MAP PRETTY. THE MIDNIGHT CREW CAN CANCEL
EARLY IF DESIRED. DROPPED LOWS BY PERHAPS A DEGREE IN SPOTS.
MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. UNDER PLENTY OF SUN...TEMPS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE LOWER TEENS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
NEAR ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES...
WHILE REMAINING BELOW NORM...MODERATE FROM WHAT WE HAVE TODAY.
PATTERN AMPLIFIES SOME TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGE REBUILDING
OVER THE WEST COAST AND TROFFING SETTING UP AGAIN OVER CENTRAL
U.S. IN LATER PERIODS FEATURE TO WATCH...SIG SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SYSTEM AND FOLLOW ON WEAKER WAVES TO
PUSH COLD FRONT THROUGH STATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCE
FOR PCPN THROUGH PERIOD. GULF MOISTURE NOT A PLAYER...SO AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO LOW
TO MID 20S.
IN NEAR TERM...TWO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO
TUE AND AGAIN TUE EVENING. SHORTWAVES COMBINE WITH WEAK WAA AND
JET ENERGY THESE PERIODS...WITH TUE NIGHT SYSTEM AFFECTING MAINLY
SOUTH PART OF CWA. FOR MON NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
YESTERDAY AND TODAY WITH CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING WEAK LIFT THROUGH
DEEP AREA OF GOOD DENDRICTIC GROWTH RATES. HAVE BUMPED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP GIVEN EXPECTED 20 TO 1 SNOW RATIOS. A GOOD INCH
TO UP TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WI LATE TUE
NIGHT...WED MORN...CLEARING SKIES OUT WED. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS EXPECTED WILL BRING SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY TODAY OF LAKE MI SHOWING
LIMITED OPEN WATER...SO WILL NOT PUT INTO GRIDS AT THIS TIME. GFS
STILL ODD MODEL OUT BEING QUICKER WITH NEXT PLAINS SYSTEM BRINGING
PCPN INTO REGION WED NIGHT. HAVE STAYED WITH MAJORITY WITH SLOWER
TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MIDDLE
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY BUT IT WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
WIZ013-020>022-031-037>040-045-048>050-073-074.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>012-018-
019-030-035-036.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
316 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
FOR EARLY THIS EVENING...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH OF THE FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...HELD ONTO THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH 02.02Z...AND THEN QUICKLY
LOWERED THE CHANCES AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SNOW TOTALS WILL BE UP TO AN INCH SOUTH OF A CHARLES
CITY IOWA TO LANCASTER WISCONSIN LINE.
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES
IN THE 0 TO 20 BELOW RANGE AND NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20 TO 35 BELOW RANGE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS...ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
WITH OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS...REACHING CRITERIA THIS
EVENING...STARTED THEIR WIND CHILL ADVISORY AT 02.00Z. MEANWHILE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY NOT REACH CRITERIA
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO STARTED THESE AREAS AT 02.06Z.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WIND CHILLS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL
INTO THE -20 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THE 01.12Z MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST AT MOVING THIS SYSTEM
INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF HAS SNOW MOVING
IN THE REGION AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS HAS MODERATE TO
STRONG 265 TO 280K ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH QUICKLY SATURATES THESE
SURFACES. WITH QPFS RUNNING UP TO 0.05" AND 20 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS...EXPECT SNOW TOTALS UP TO 1 INCH. EXPECT THE HIGHEST
TOTALS TO BE FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE THERE IS THE
STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEPEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE GFS WARMS THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INTO THE -2 TO 0C RANGE. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF WARM THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE 2 TO 5C. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENTLY WARMING UP THINGS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THERE IS
STILL A 3 STANDARD DEVIATION SHOWING UP IN THE MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE MEN. THE CFS VERSION 2
HAS WARMED UP THIS PERIOD DURING ITS LAST 4 MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER IT
STILL HAS ITS MEAN IN THE UPPER 20S. AS A RESULT...STILL A BIT
CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE GOING A BIT TOO HIGH WITH OUR
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER MY CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO AWAY FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
ON WHERE THE POLAR JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT IT
WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...OUR
HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE
THE GFS HAS ITS POLAR JET SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD ONLY BE IN THE TEENS FOR SATURDAY.
DUE TO THIS...JUST WENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
THE LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN MOVING IN FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...WHICH ALSO MEANS IT SHOULD MOVE OUT FASTER.
CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY GONE DOWN TO IFR AT KRST AND BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AND THE 01.15Z HRRR EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN START TO IMPROVE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR KLSE...EXPECTING MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVE BEGINS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES PAST...SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALLOWING THE
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR WIZ017-029-032>034.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
WIZ041>044-053>055-061.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094-095.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
MNZ096.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
IAZ011-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING ALOFT...MID-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS OCCURRING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL FGEN IN THIS CONFLUENCE ZONE WITH HELP FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE NE/SD IS GENERATING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA TO WESTERN MICHIGAN. ACROSS THE CWA...THIS SNOW IS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 29 AND MAY SEE A HALF INCH OF ACCUM FROM
WAUTOMA TO MANITOWOC THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
SNOW BAND ARE COLD ADVECTING A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS OUT OF THE
1045MB ARCTIC HIGH. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN BELOW ZERO OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING THE END OF
THE SNOW...AND WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TONIGHT...BROAD MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHEAR AXIS AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW WITHIN THE FGEN OF THIS CONVERGENT ZONE WILL EXIT
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE IF THE
RETURNS OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST...BUT
WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE
EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THE MESO-MODELS ARE PICKING UP A MID-LAKE
SNOW BAND OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THAT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING AND
DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONE OF THE MESO MODELS INDICATES
THAT SOME OF THIS MID-LAKE SNOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES. GENERALLY DO NOT LIKE THIS IDEA...SINCE SYNOPTIC WINDS
WILL BE OFFSHORE AND ANY LAND BREEZE COMPONENT WILL WANT TO SHOVE
THE LAKE SNOW TO THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LAKE. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT KEEP ACCUMS
LIGHT.
THE OTHER PROBLEM AREA TONIGHT WILL BE WIND CHILLS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE SURFACE GRADIENT TO BE A LITTLE TOO TIGHT FOR
DECOUPLING THIS EVENING...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT SO
THINK SURFACE WINDS SHOULD TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPS FALLING
BELOW MINUS 20 SEEMS LIKELY...SO STUCK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS
MIN TEMPS. WITH CLOUDS OVERHEAD IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR DECOUPLING AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY NOT EXCITED TO
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WITH SO MANY QUESTION MARKS...ESPECIALLY
AFTER SO MANY LOW WIND CHILL EVENTS ALREADY. BUT WITH OFFICES TO
THE WEST ISSUING HEADLINES...WILL FOLLOW SUIT TO BLEND.
SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE SHORELINE OF MANITOWOC AND KEWAUNEE
COUNTIES WILL BE EXITING DURING THE MORNING AS DRY ARCTIC AIR FLOWS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EARLY IN THIS PERIOD WILL CONSOLIDATE MONDAY
WITH SOME MODERATION OF COLD EXPECTED AS MORE ZONAL PATTERN SETS
UP. THEREAFTER...SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FLOW TO
BRING PCPN TO AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. ISSUES WILL BE TIMING THESE
SYSTEMS. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED SO AMOUNTS WILL ON LIGHT
SIDE. BY THU...850MB TEMPS RISE INTO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...WITH SURFACE TEMPS APPROACHING 30? PATTERN BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN AS MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TROF OVER CENTER
OF U.S. COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST THIS COLDER TURN TO BE SHORT LIVED.
IN NEAR TERM....HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OUT OF NORTHERN PLAINS
AND LIGHT WINDS TO LEAD TO CONTINUING VERY COLD PERIOD THROUGH
MONDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMP FOR MARCH 3RD MAY BE IN JEOPARDY.
QUESTION ON NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY SUN NIGHT AS WINDS
EXPECTED TO DROP OFF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ESPECIALLY AFTER
6Z. WINDS ALOFT ONLY AROUND 10KTS THROUGH 850MB. WAA PATTERN...LFQ
OF JET MOVING THROUGH PLAINS TO LEAD TO NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE. STAYED WITH CHANCE POPS GIVEN MOISTURE
CONCERNS WITH EXITING DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN EDGE WILL CLIP CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT
SHOULD REACH INTO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE TAF SITES SHOULD SEE VSBYS/CIGS FALL
TO MVFR CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLY IFR AT MTW FOR A PERIOD. NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION THOUGH. THE MAIN AREA
OF SNOW WILL EXIT BY LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN MODELS ARE DEPICTING
A BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT. SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THIS BAND WILL BRUSH BY MTW INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS AT MTW THROUGH THEN.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TO TURN VFR ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021-030-035-036.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1127 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO HOLD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...KEEPING THE BULK OF ITS ENERGY TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...IT
DOES HELP ENHANCE TEMP GRADIENT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FARTHER
SOUTH...WHICH WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN SNOW CHANCES TODAY. NORTH-
SOUTH RUNNING X-SECTION POINTS TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF SLOPING
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...MOSTLY IN THE 500-850 MB LAYER...STRONGEST
SOUTH OF I-90...AND FOCUSED FROM 21-06Z TONIGHT. SLOPING WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALSO...SOUTH TO NORTH. MEANWHILE...SOME HINTS THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT VIA THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
A 150 KT JET STREAK WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AMPLE FORCING
FOR PCPN PRODUCTION...BUT ACROSS THE SOUTH. MOISTURE DOESN/T APPEAR
TO BE AN ISSUE...WITH RH FIELDS AND SOUNDINGS POINTING TO AMPLE
SATURATION. SO...SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS IOWA/SOUTHERN WI...WITH MOST
ACCUMULATIONS STAYING SOUTH OF I-90. AMOUNTS FROM 1-3" LOOK
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF BITTER COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO TUMBLE
INTO THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
WILL STAY A BIT WARMER THANKS TO CLOUDS LINGERING IN THESE AREAS
LONGER. WINDS WON/T BE STRONG...BUT ENOUGH THAT WIND CHILLS FROM 20
TO 35 BELOW ARE EXPECTED...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
BITTER COLD IS GOING TO STICK AROUND FOR A FEW MORE DAYS AS ECMWF
850 MB TEMPS HOVER CLOSE TO -2 THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
OVERHEAD SUN-MON...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT. FRESH SNOWFALL FROM FRIDAY AND TODAY
WILL AID THE COOLING POTENTIAL. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO CALM AT TIMES...ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. EVEN A 4 MPH WIND WILL MAKE IT 7 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER.
THE GFS/ECMWF STILL HOLDING ON COURSE WITH A SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW A LOFT THIS WEEKEND...CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE
BITTER COLD WILL SHUNT BACK TO THE NORTH...ALLOWING FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. TRENDS ALSO FAVOR HITTING/EXCEEDING THE FREEZING MARK
FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THU/FRI. EC A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH ITS WARMING...BUT THE FLOW ALLOWS FOR SOME BIGGER SWING. WILL
STAY WITH THE WARMING - HOPING FOR TEMPS MORE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. ANYTHING MORE WOULD BE A BONUS.
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL ALSO ACT AS A HIGHWAY FOR VARIOUS UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS TO SPIN ACROSS...OR CLOSE TO...THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THESE
SMALL SYSTEMS...POSITIONING AND TIMING...SO TRYING TO NAIL DOWN
WHERE/WHEN THE BEST SNOW CHANCES WILL BE IS PROBLEMATIC. WILL STICK
WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR NOW...WHICH BRINGS A LOT OF SMALL
CHANCES DAY TO DAY. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLARITY TO THE VARIOUS
PRECIPITATION THREATS AS WE GET WITHIN 72 HOURS.
SUFFICE TO SAY...TRENDS ARE FAVORING SOME WARMING TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH A MORE ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
THE LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN MOVING IN FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...WHICH ALSO MEANS IT SHOULD MOVE OUT FASTER.
CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY GONE DOWN TO IFR AT KRST AND BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AND THE 01.15Z HRRR EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN START TO IMPROVE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR KLSE...EXPECTING MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVE BEGINS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES PAST...SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALLOWING THE
CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
345 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WELL TO OUR SE. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
KEEPING OUR TEMPS WARM EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...APPROACHING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVE EAST ALONG IT. COLD FRONT WILL BACK DOOR THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA (FA) FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN QUESTION INVOLVES PRECIP TYPE.
EXPECT A RAPID COOL DOWN WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT WITH BREEZY NE WINDS.
HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN...MODELS INDICATE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE DRYING OUT.
SO...AT THIS TIME..IT APPEARS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SLEET OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE NE FA THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
IMPACT EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL...SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT BOTH AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS ON WARMER AREA LAKES TONIGHT
COULD APPROACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT CONFIDENCE A
LITTLE TOO LOW TO ISSUE LWA AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT TO PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUE/WED LEADING TO A SURFACE WAVE OR TWO
RIDING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION INTO OUR REGION. GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND HIGHER POPS. WILL FAVOR SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCY...AND GIVEN APPEARANCE
OF DRY MID LEVELS...THINK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAVORING THE SOUTHERN
FA TUE NT AND WED LOOKS OK. LOOKING AT PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONGER UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SE CONUS WILL PROMOTE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD STALLED FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH PROVIDING MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR FA FOR WED NT THRU THU
NT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH ECMWF
STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LOW AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE
LOW...THUS PROVIDING A WETTER SOLUTION FOR OUR FA. LARGE RANGE IN
POPS NOTED IN GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. HPC GUIDANCE PROVIDING
LIKELY POPS...IN LINE WITH ONGOING FORECAST. IN SITU WEDGE AT THE
SURFACE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDING A LITTLE WARMER WITH LOW
LEVEL TEMPS/THICKNESS VALUES AND SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS...AND IT
STILL APPEARS ALL RAIN FOR THE PRECIP TYPE. ECMWF ALSO SLOWER WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING OUT WITH INDICATIONS OF LIGHT PRECIP
POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR
SATURDAY. GFS BRINGS THE NEXT FRONT IN SUNDAY...WHILE ECMWF
APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MAYBE SUN NT OR MON.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE 19Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME. MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS SREF
GUIDANCE MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE 23Z HRRR SHOWED AN IFR CEILING SPREADING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN.
HOWEVER...NEITHER THE NAM/GFS SHOWED ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE CLOUDS
LATER THIS MORNING. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV AND MET MOS AND MAINTAINED
VFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE OF THE
INCONSISTENT HRRR GUIDANCE. MIXING SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST KCAE 88D VAD WIND PROFILE
INDICATED SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. VWP CURRENTLY SHOWS A
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST 40 TO 45 KT JET FROM 1K FT AND ABOVE. THE NAM
INDICATED SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 14Z
WHEN HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BECOME MORE DOMINATE. LATER IN THE
DAY...THE NAM AND GFS MOS DIFFERED WITH THE NAM SHOWING IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS MOS INDICATED LOW-END VFR
OR MVFR CEILINGS. WE AVERAGED THIS GUIDANCE AND FORECASTED MVFR
CEILINGS. THE NAM MOS MAY BE TOO LOW WITH ITS CEILING FORECAST
BECAUSE CONSIDERABLE WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS. THERE MAY
ALSO BE RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT BELIEVE THIS RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH LIMITED EFFECT ON
VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS LAMP INDICATED GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE
NAM MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. THE NAM
AND GFS MOS...EVEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STRONG CAA AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
DURING THE REST OF MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1244 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. DRY BUT COLDER
WEATHER EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ARCTIC AIR
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NATION WHERE TEMPERATURES AT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH ARE
WELL BELOW ZERO OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA AND IOWA. EARLIER
THIS EVENING AT 23Z TEXAS HAD A TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM 92 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE TO 8 DEGREES IN THE PANHANDLE!
THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
BUT WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT OVER AND SPILL DOWN TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND LEAD TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN THE DAY JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT
WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE
DAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND MIDDAY IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY FALL
WITH LOWER 40S ENTERING THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY EARLY EVENING.
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AS THE COLD AIR
ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET
REMAINS ACROSS PRIMARILY LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES. AS
SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SLEET MIXED IN FOR LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD. WITH THE SHORT TIME
FROM OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
FALLING AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERTAKES THE REGION WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ALONG THE NC LINE AND LOWER 30S IN THE CSRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO PUSHES MOISTURE NORTHWARD. COLD AIR
ADVECTION REMAINING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO AROUND 50 IN THE CSRA.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN MODERATELY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ONWARD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING
THE LOW CROSSING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GULF STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD REACHING
THE FL PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS CURRENTLY THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW RAPIDLY
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW MUCH SLOWER KEEPING IT
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE REMAINED CONSERVATIVE
AND MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN MODEL CHANGES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS
KEEPING CONFIDENCE LOW. MODELS AGREE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE 19Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME. MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS SREF
GUIDANCE MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE 23Z HRRR SHOWED AN IFR CEILING SPREADING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN.
HOWEVER...NEITHER THE NAM/GFS SHOWED ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE CLOUDS
LATER THIS MORNING. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV AND MET MOS AND MAINTAINED
VFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE OF THE
INCONSISTENT HRRR GUIDANCE. MIXING SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST KCAE 88D VAD WIND PROFILE
INDICATED SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. VWP CURRENTLY SHOWS A
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST 40 TO 45 KT JET FROM 1K FT AND ABOVE. THE NAM
INDICATED SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 14Z
WHEN HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BECOME MORE DOMINATE. LATER IN THE
DAY...THE NAM AND GFS MOS DIFFERED WITH THE NAM SHOWING IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS MOS INDICATED LOW-END VFR
OR MVFR CEILINGS. WE AVERAGED THIS GUIDANCE AND FORECASTED MVFR
CEILINGS. THE NAM MOS MAY BE TOO LOW WITH ITS CEILING FORECAST
BECAUSE CONSIDERABLE WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS. THERE MAY
ALSO BE RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT BELIEVE THIS RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH LIMITED EFFECT ON
VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS LAMP INDICATED GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE
NAM MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. THE NAM
AND GFS MOS...EVEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STRONG CAA AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
DURING THE REST OF MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1200 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
258 PM CST
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE FORECAST WAS ON THE DEGREE OF THE
COLD THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AT RECORD LEVELS IN SOME PLACES...AND
THEN SNOW CHANCES THIS FIRST WEEK OF METEOROLOGICAL "SPRING".
TONIGHT...
THE LOCAL AREA FINDS ITSELF SQUEEZED BETWEEN A VERY DEEP UPPER
LOW ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS PROGRESSING DUE EAST AND
CREATING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND ICE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS FEATURE ALSO
WILL CONTINUE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVE WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE 15K FT. BUT ASIDE FROM THAT...THE CONFLUENCE
ALOFT OVER THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
TRANQUIL. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAVE
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY WITH LESS CONVERGENCE AND JUST DEEPER DRY
AIR ADVECTION. WHILE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED AT TIMES
TONIGHT AND EVEN MONDAY MORNING INTO FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA...ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY LIGHT.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE 1039MB HIGH REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ENOUGH OF A SPEED FOR
RARE MARCH WIND CHILL CONCERNS...BUT NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
FORTITUDE OF THIS COOL SEASON. THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS AND WINDS
SHOULD HELP TO OFFSET RAPID EVE COOLING...BUT A SLOW STEADY DROP
IS ANTICIPATED. OUTSIDE OF CHICAGO...LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS. SEE THE CLIMATE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE. THE WIND CHILLS FALL OUT AT -15 TO -25 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND THE NORTH AND FAR WEST SIDES OF THE CHICAGO METRO
WHICH IS WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY.
MONDAY...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE. IT
IS ALWAYS A BATTLE THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH COLD AIR OVER SNOW COVER
VERSUS THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE. GIVEN THE 925MB TEMPS OF -16C
FORECAST AND OVER SNOW COVER...CLIMATOLOGICALLY THIS WOULD FAVOR
FORECAST HIGH IN THE TEENS AND HAVE GONE THAT ROUTE. AGAIN SEE THE
CLIMATE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE RECORD LOW MAXS. CLOUDS LOOK TO
BE ON THE INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT AND THAT SHOULD KEEP MINS
UP FROM WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE ANOTHER NIGHT BELOW ZERO IN MANY
PLACES. IF CLOUDS DO COME IN SLOWER DURING THE EVE THAT COULD LEAD
TO A MORE RAPID DROP...BUT RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER IS
FAIRLY HIGH.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
THE UNSETTLED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS TO PREVAIL DURING
MIDWEEK. WITH THE QUICK PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE
SYSTEMS...NAMELY EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY...IT IS NOT SURPRISING TO SEE CONTINUED MODEL
SPREAD. BELIEVE THAT THE FIRST DISTURBANCE EARLY TUESDAY WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH GIVEN THE DRY RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS SOMEWHAT SOUTH IN ITS
WAKE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE THE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WED SYSTEM A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE TO IMPACT THE AREA. AGAIN THERE IS LITTLE
LOW-LEVEL INFLUENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND DEEP MOISTURE VALUES LOOK
LOW...SO ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD APPEAR MINOR IF IT WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...BUT SOMETHING THAT COULD HAVE IMPACTS DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING. MODEL SPREAD REALLY GETS LARGE BEYOND THAT AND SO HAVE
NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS. HAVE INCREASED THEM SOMEWHAT
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY. BESIDES THE FACT IT ALWAYS SNOWS
ON SATURDAY /PARTIALLY JOKING/...THE EC AND GEM BOTH HAVE A TIGHT
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SIMILAR TO THIS PAST
SATURDAY NIGHTS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH LIMITED DURATION
PERIODS OF RETURN FLOW. THERE DOES STILL APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW OF
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ON FRIDAY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS LOOKED
AT...WHICH WOULD BE THE RETURN FLOW PERIOD AHEAD OF A POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEKEND SYSTEM. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY MINIMAL IN MOST
FORECAST ELEMENTS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
MTF
&&
.CLIMATE...
258 PM CST
THE FOLLOWING RECORDS INDICATED BY AN (*) ARE FORECAST TO BE
BROKEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY:
MARCH 3RD RECORD LOW MARCH 3RD RECORD LOW MAX
CHICAGO: -6 (1873) 8 (1873)
ROCKFORD: -4 (2002)* 18 (2002)*
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS MID-MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY
FAVORING A NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER TODAY. STEADY NORTH TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH. WINDS
WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MID MORNING OR SO INLAND
OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE INFLUENCES MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR A STEADIER NORTHEAST WIND AT MDW/GYY AND POSSIBLY ORD DESPITE
THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVERAGE. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KT
REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION/LAKE INFLUENCE. VFR WILL PREVAIL BUT THERE
MAY BE FEW-SCT STRATO CU OFF THE LAKE BUT THIS SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH...NOT TOO MENTION THE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF ICE ON THE LAKE.
OTHERWISE HIGH CIRRUS WITH SOME MID CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY GOING INTO THE EVENING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS MID-MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY AND A
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
129 PM CST
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE...AS A STOUT AND EXPANSIVE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE LAKE...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCAL WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED DIFFERENCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TONIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL ABATE ON MONDAY...LIKELY BECOMING UNDER 10 KT OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER
HEAD. SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENTS
ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011 UNTIL 9
AM MONDAY.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020 UNTIL 9
AM MONDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1112 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 835 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
Storm system well to our south continues to make progress across
the Southern Plains this evening. A large shield of precipitation
extends northeast from the upper wave, which was located over the
Panhandle of Texas. On the northern periphery of the precipitation
there was mainly snow being reported over parts of south central
and southeast Illinois, with a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain
and snow over extreme southern Illinois into western Ky. The bulk
of the significant precip will be occurring tonight south of I70
as another sprawling Arctic air mass settles southeast into the
region through Monday. Will be cancelling the northern portion of
the Winter Storm warning over southeast Illinois and if precip trends
continue to suggest a southeast shift in the heavier bands of snow
and sleet, we may be able to cancel most if not all of the warning
over the far southeast later tonight.
Further to the northwest, the wind chill advisory looks fine at
this point, but satellite data showing quite a bit of cirrus well
off to our northwest, so that may have an affect on our early
morning lows. Forecast soundings off the RAP and the latest NAM-
WRF suggest the thicker cirrus shield will shift into parts of
southeast Illinois by morning, so will not make any changes to the
wind chill headlines for the overnight hours. After we make the
adjustment to the Winter Storm Warning over the southeast counties,
we will send out an updated ZFP.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1105 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
VFR conditions are expected to prevail thru this forecast period.
Other than a rather thick band of cirrus across central thru
east central IL into the early morning hours, no significant
aviation concerns are expected as high pressure builds in from
the northwest. Forecast soundings indicate the cirrus will gradually
work its way east of our area by Monday morning. Surface winds will
be out a northerly direction at 8 to 15 kts overnight and around
10 kts during the daylight hours Monday.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
High pressure ridge axis over the center of the country trying to
push the current storm further out of the area, but the main
portion of the wave still in Arkansas. The sfc low, however, is
progged to move just south of the Ohio River Valley. The storm
will still produce plenty of precip issues, though most of
them, including the majority of the deformation zone enhancement,
will fall south of ILX this evening. Though much of the weather
has ended across the northern tier of the CWA, redeveloping snow
across the center of the state, and still plenty of
snow/sleet/fzra mix in the southeast is keeping some of the
headlines active this afternoon. Models now moving the precip out
of the area a little sooner, and as long as the low continues on
its forecast track SE of the forecast area, an early cancellation
is anticipated. Into the rest of the forecast, the models are just
fine with the overall pattern, but off with the timing of the next
couple waves. These systems are not big precip makers at this
point, and the forecast is mostly quiet.
SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow...
Winter storm wrapping up this evening, but still producing plenty
of precip for the southeast. Another 1 to 3 inches of snow
anticipated in the warning area, in addition to slowly
transitioning sleet to snow. FA should be dry by morning. IN the
meantime, temperatures dropping quickly behind the system in areas
to the NW where some clearing is anticipated. Negative single
digit temps North of the I-55 corridor and winds staying up in
7-15 kt range through the overnight resulting in wind chills from
-15 to -20 degrees. Wind Chill Advisory is out as a result for the
overnight hours and a very cold start to Monday. High pressure
ridge moving closer through the day, and winds will go light and
variable before switching back around to having a more southerly
component. Although tomorrow night will also be cold, it will
remain above zero, in the positive single digits.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
More cold air for the extended. Mon-Thursday still well below
freezing. Although Friday is showing signs of a warm up, but the
WAA looks a bit weak at this point. Suspicious that the MOS is
being pulled too much by guidance upwards, considering that it has
cooled off again with this synoptic run. Brief waves bringing
quick shot of precip possibly on Wed across the north, with only
slight chc pops north of I-74 corridor from GBG to PIA. ECMWF and
GFS still not in agreement with the next wave btwn Thursday and
Saturday night. GFS quicker and divided the energy out ahead of a
trof digging in over the desert SW. GFS sends two quick shots of
precip and ECMWF sends only one, along a developing baroclinic
zone, while splitting the flow at 500 mb. Another pattern shift,
and will likely see the models vary quite a bit as time
progresses.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ062-063-
066>068-071>073.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 10 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>043-047>051.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
421 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
...THE REST OF THE NIGHT THROUGH TODAY...
...MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING...
07Z SFC ANALYSIS...AND RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
LOW PRESSURE AREA ROLLING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS IS RUNNING ALONG AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES TO
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE THIN REMAINDER OF THE STATE NOT IN THE DEEP
FREEZE. THE WARM NOSE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...PER OBS AND
THE TRANSITION SHOWING UP IN THE DOPPLER CC LOOP. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN DEPOSITING GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE BEFORE THE SLEET STARTS TO REALLY
ACCUMULATE FOR MOST PLACES. REPORTS OF HALF INCH SLEET TOTALS ARE
STARTING TO COME IN FROM PLACES NORTH AND WEST OF JKL. THE OFFICE
IS PUSHING THAT TOTAL...AS WELL...THOUGH SOME SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN
AT TIMES. THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...AND THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IT HAS LAID ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...IS EVIDENCED BY THE MID TEENS
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY...LOW 20S ALONG THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...AND MID 30S BARELY HOLDING ON OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DEEPER INTO
THE CWA WITH EVEN SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR 20 KTS SHOWING UP IN THE OBS
CLOSER TO THE BLUEGRASS. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONCERN FOR POWER
OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. ON RADAR...AN EXTENDED MASS OF PCPN REMAINS
TO TRANSITION THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHERE IT WILL BE CONVERTED TO
MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW...THOUGH FOR A TIME HEAVY RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. NO CG RETURNS HAVE
SHOWN UP WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN AWHILE...BUT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME IN CLOUD OR CLOUD TO CLOUD BOLTS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVELS AND THE
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SFC SYSTEM GIVING US A LION OF A START
TO MARCH. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND
WILL ROLL NEARLY DUE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EVENING.
THE MODEL AGREEMENT ALOFT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO AGREEMENT AT THE SFC
FOR A COMPLEX ONGOING SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. SO...HAVE INSTEAD LEANED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND THE NAM12 COMBINED WITH
TRENDS AND PCPN PROGRESSION TO GUIDE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
THE HEAVY PCPN...GRADUALLY GOING TO SNOW AND FALLING AT OVER AN INCH
AN HOUR...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BACK
EDGE AND A TAPER REACHING FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY 7 AM AND
SWEEPING EAST BY 10 AM. HAVE USED THIS FOR TIMING THE WORST OF THE
WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS
FOR THIS HEAVY PCPN BAND. THE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
SLEET...THOUGH...SO IN A SENSE WE ARE DODGING A BULLET...BUT THE ROADS
WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM...AS A RESULT. THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS THE LAST OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE...BASICALLY WHAT IS GOING ON
NEAR THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CURRENTLY...PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF AN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE
DRAWN UP THE GRIDS WITH THESE TWO PCPN AREAS AND THEIR PROGRESS IN
MIND. ACCORDINGLY...WILL HOLD ON TO THE WARNINGS AS THEY ARE WITH
SOME CLEAN UP POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z. WILL ALSO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH AS
HEAVY PCPN IN A SEMI-LIQUID FORM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THAT
AREA. EXPECT A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH...BUT JUST AS MUCH SLEET...1/2 TO 1 INCH...THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL BE DELINEATED FURTHER IN THE FORTHCOMING WSW
UPDATES.
USED THE CONSSHORT FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS...BC
VERSION FOR THE LATTER TWO...THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. ALSO DERIVED THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS FROM THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
JUST ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH THE TAPER OF THE SNOW
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...A
STRONG MASS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CONUS. THIS SET UP SHOULD KEEP KY DRY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS WELL AS USHER IN DRY CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THIS PUSH OF COLDER...DRIER
CANADIAN AIR...EXPECT LOWS TO DROP DOWN WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE MORE
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...TO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT JUST PASSED THROUGH...WINDS WERE GUSTY
IN MANY LOCATIONS. LUCKILY...EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIE DOWN BY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE GOOD AND BAD IMPLICATIONS. ON THE DOWN
SIDE...LIGHTER WINDS...IN ADDITION TO CLEAR SKIES AND A COOLER
AIR MASS OVERHEAD...WILL PROVIDE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...HENCE
THE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. ON THE UP SIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DROP THIS LOW...ANY AMOUNT OF WIND WILL ONLY AID TO THE
WIND CHILL FACTOR...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER THAN THEY
REALLY ARE. THAT BEING SAID...WINDS WILL NOT BE NIL. WE CAN EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS IN THE 3 TO 7 KT RANGE...WHICH WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO
DROP WIND CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTH.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT
HIGHER SUN ANGLES FOR MARCH...AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WITH THIS DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO
BOUNCE BACK TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BE BREAKING DOWN
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT DRY AIR WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE AND THEIR WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...SO THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNEVENTFUL.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SE TOWARD
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE NOW LESS INCLINED TO CLOSE
OFF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT THEY ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH IT. SURFACE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL INDICATED OVER
THE GULF...BUT IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST THAN IN RUNS OF RECENT DAYS. AS A
RESULT...IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIRECT EFFECTS
FROM THE CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS IT PASSES.
A TRANSITORY RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITHOUT ANY COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.
ANOTHER LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO HEAD IN FROM THE NW DURING THE WEEKEND. GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE ON THE BIG PICTURE FOR THIS...BUT SHOW SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES. TAKING BOTH INTO CONSIDERATION...THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EVEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A BUFFER
OF LOWER POPS ON BOTH SIDES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
MONDAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...BRINGING RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW TO THE
AREA. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AS THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW BEGINS...WHICH WILL BEGAN AROUND 04Z FOR THE
FAR NORTH...AND CLOSER TO 11 TO 12Z FOR THE FAR SOUTH. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS MID DAY ON
MONDAY. AVIATION INTERESTS ALOFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SIGNIFICANT
ICING UNTIL ALL PRECIPITATION CAN CHANGE TO SNOW. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION COULD ALSO HAVE CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE AND LIGHTNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-104-106>109-111-112-114.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-
083>088-107-109-110-112>120.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ079-080-
083>088-110-113-115>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF/JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...DUSTY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
315 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
...THE REST OF THE NIGHT THROUGH TODAY...
...MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING...
07Z SFC ANALYSIS...AND RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
LOW PRESSURE AREA ROLLING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS IS RUNNING ALONG AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES TO
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE THIN REMAINDER OF THE STATE NOT IN THE DEEP
FREEZE. THE WARM NOSE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...PER OBS AND
THE TRANSITION SHOWING UP IN THE DOPPLER CC LOOP. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN DEPOSITING GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE BEFORE THE SLEET STARTS TO REALLY
ACCUMULATE FOR MOST PLACES. REPORTS OF HALF INCH SLEET TOTALS ARE
STARTING TO COME IN FROM PLACES NORTH AND WEST OF JKL. THE OFFICE
IS PUSHING THAT TOTAL...AS WELL...THOUGH SOME SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN
AT TIMES. THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...AND THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IT HAS LAID ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...IS EVIDENCED BY THE MID TEENS
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY...LOW 20S ALONG THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...AND MID 30S BARELY HOLDING ON OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DEEPER INTO
THE CWA WITH EVEN SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR 20 KTS SHOWING UP IN THE OBS
CLOSER TO THE BLUEGRASS. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONCERN FOR POWER
OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. ON RADAR...AN EXTENDED MASS OF PCPN REMAINS
TO TRANSITION THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHERE IT WILL BE CONVERTED TO
MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW...THOUGH FOR A TIME HEAVY RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. NO CG RETURNS HAVE
SHOWN UP WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN AWHILE...BUT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME IN CLOUD OR CLOUD TO CLOUD BOLTS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVELS AND THE
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SFC SYSTEM GIVING US A LION OF A START
TO MARCH. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND
WILL ROLL NEARLY DUE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EVENING.
THE MODEL AGREEMENT ALOFT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO AGREEMENT AT THE SFC
FOR A COMPLEX ONGOING SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. SO...HAVE INSTEAD LEANED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND THE NAM12 COMBINED WITH
TRENDS AND PCPN PROGRESSION TO GUIDE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
THE HEAVY PCPN...GRADUALLY GOING TO SNOW AND FALLING AT OVER AN INCH
AN HOUR...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BACK
EDGE AND A TAPER REACHING FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY 7 AM AND
SWEEPING EAST BY 10 AM. HAVE USED THIS FOR TIMING THE WORST OF THE
WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS
FOR THIS HEAVY PCPN BAND. THE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
SLEET...THOUGH...SO IN A SENSE WE ARE DODGING A BULLET...BUT THE ROADS
WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM...AS A RESULT. THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS THE LAST OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE...BASICALLY WHAT IS GOING ON
NEAR THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CURRENTLY...PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF AN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE
DRAWN UP THE GRIDS WITH THESE TWO PCPN AREAS AND THEIR PROGRESS IN
MIND. ACCORDINGLY...WILL HOLD ON TO THE WARNINGS AS THEY ARE WITH
SOME CLEAN UP POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z. WILL ALSO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH AS
HEAVY PCPN IN A SEMI-LIQUID FORM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THAT
AREA. EXPECT A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH...BUT JUST AS MUCH SLEET...1/2 TO 1 INCH...THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL BE DELINEATED FURTHER IN THE FORTHCOMING WSW
UPDATES.
USED THE CONSSHORT FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS...BC
VERSION FOR THE LATTER TWO...THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. ALSO DERIVED THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS FROM THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
JUST ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH THE TAPER OF THE SNOW
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...A
STRONG MASS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CONUS. THIS SET UP SHOULD KEEP KY DRY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS WELL AS USHER IN DRY CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THIS PUSH OF COLDER...DRIER
CANADIAN AIR...EXPECT LOWS TO DROP DOWN WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE MORE
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...TO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT JUST PASSED THROUGH...WINDS WERE GUSTY
IN MANY LOCATIONS. LUCKILY...EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIE DOWN BY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE GOOD AND BAD IMPLICATIONS. ON THE DOWN
SIDE...LIGHTER WINDS...IN ADDITION TO CLEAR SKIES AND A COOLER
AIRMASS OVERHEAD...WILL PROVIDE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...HENCE
THE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. ON THE UP SIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DROP THIS LOW...ANY AMOUNT OF WIND WILL ONLY AID TO THE
WIND CHILL FACTOR...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER THAN THEY
REALLY ARE. THAT BEING SAID...WINDS WILL NOT BE NIL. WE CAN EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS IN THE 3 TO 7 KT RANGE...WHICH WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO
DROP WIND CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTH.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT
HIGHER SUN ANGLES FOR MARCH...AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO
BOUNCE BACK TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG A SHALLOW
MIXED MOIST LAYER AT TEMPS AROUND -10C SHOULD NOT YIELD ANYTHING
MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES ON MONDAY EVENING...IF THAT. SURFACE
COOLING COUPLED WITH WEAK WARMING JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD PUT
AND END TO FLURRIES DURING THE NIGHT. IT STILL APPEARS THAT COLD
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL GIVE US MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS SHOULD DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS FURTHER
SOUTH PENDING TIMING OF CLEARING AND PRESSURE GRADIENT AS FRESH SNOW
COVER SHOULD LEAD TO MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE VERY DRY
AIR MASS WHICH THIS HIGH PUTS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP USE DRY AT LEAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY ON THURSDAY...DESPITE A COUPLE OF WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHT RISES SHOULD DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE UNTIL THURSDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING TOWARD THE GULF COAST FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT AND THEN
POSSIBLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW BY THU. SURFACE DEVELOPMENT ENSUES IN
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND HEADS NE ALONG THE SE COAST. WITH A
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER SYSTEM FORECAST TO POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF FOR A
TIME...CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING AND TRACK IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME
RANGE THOUGH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AS WELL AS THE 18Z GFS HAVE
THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST FOR
MUCH MORE THAN THE TN AND OR VA BORDER COUNTIES BEING BRUSHED WITH
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.
HOW QUICKLY THE SE CONUS SYSTEM DEPARTS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW
QUICKLY ANOTHER SYSTEM CAN MOVE IN FROM THE NW. THE GFS AND ECMWF
STILL DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN AND
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...AND A GENERALIZED FORECAST CONSENSUS BLEND
WHICH LED TO A LONG PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY HAS BEEN USED. THE 12Z GFS WOULD SUPPORT FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT CHANCES FOR RAIN OR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE 12Z
ECMWF AND THE 0Z ECMWF FOR THAT MATTER HAVE THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA NEARLY 24 HOURS LATE FOR SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
AFTER SOME VERY COLD READINGS FOR EARLY MARCH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODERATE A BIT ON ON TUESDAY INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. WITH THE
ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE
FOR TUESDAY. TUE NIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE CHILLY BUT WARMER THAN MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL MODERATE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
MONDAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...BRINGING RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW TO THE
AREA. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AS THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW BEGINS...WHICH WILL BEGAN AROUND 04Z FOR THE
FAR NORTH...AND CLOSER TO 11 TO 12Z FOR THE FAR SOUTH. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS MID DAY ON
MONDAY. AVIATION INTERESTS ALOFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER SIGNIFICANT
ICING UNTIL ALL PRECIPITATION CAN CHANGE TO SNOW. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION COULD ALSO HAVE CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE AND LIGHTNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-104-106>109-111-112-114.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-
083>088-107-109-110-112>120.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ079-080-
083>088-110-113-115>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF/JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DUSTY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1121 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
...RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW
IN THE COLDEST START TO MARCH SINCE 2002 AND ONE OF THE COLDEST
STARTS ON RECORD...
ALOFT: MODESTLY SPLIT LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW WAS OVER THE CONUS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING E THRU CO/NM INTO INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW.
THIS TROF WILL HEAD E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE SE STATES
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE WRN USA.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING ONSHORE INTO OR/NRN CA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS TROF WILL MISS THE
REGION FAR TO THE NW...BUT A LOW-AMPLITUDE PV STREAMER WILL MOVE
THRU TOMORROW...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THRU THE RIDGE.
SURFACE: ELONGATED AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRES EXTENDED FROM
WRN CANADA S INTO THE PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL SHRINK AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT...AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TOMORROW. THIS HIGH AND CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY MAJOR ROLES IN
HOW COLD TEMPS GET TONIGHT. BREAKING/SETTING RECORD LOWS IS ON THE
TABLE.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL ENCROACH
FROM THE N OF NEB HWY 92. SOME LIGHT SNOW /-SN/ MAY DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF S-CNTRL NEB. TEMPS DID GET ABOVE THE ALL-TIME RECORD
COLDEST FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFO ON RECORDS.
TONIGHT: UNSEASONABLE BITTER COLD! IF OUR TEMPS WORK OUT AS FCST...
LOWS WILL BE NEARLY 40F COLDER THAN WHERE THEY TYPICALLY ARE FOR
EARLY MARCH /LOW-MID 20S/.
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING CLOUDS.
SOME MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE UPSTREAM OVER WY...BUT THEY
WILL BE MOVING INTO SUBSIDENCE. SO AM NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLEAR...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INFLICT A MAJOR IMPACT
ON TEMPS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS WELL...
RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF CALM OR NEARLY CALM WINDS.
TEMPS: LOWS WERE -13 TO -20 OVER THE DAKOTA`S THIS MORNING. AND
WHILE THERE IS SNOWCOVER UP THERE...MOST OF IT IS A WEEK OLD. THE
OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS AIR MASS. THE 850
MB TEMP WAS -21C AT GRAND ISLAND THIS MORNING. BASED ON REANALYSIS
DATA...-21 AND COLDER HAS ONLY OCCURRED 4 TIMES IN THE PAST 34 YRS.
AND GIVEN THAT TEMPS WILL ONLY BE ABOVE FRZG FOR ABOUT 5 HRS TODAY
ALONG AND N OF HWY 6...I BELIEVE WE NEED TO FCST RECORD COLD.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS OVER MUCH OF S-CNTRL NEB.
LOW TEMPS WERE DROPPED 4-7F FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
A WIND CHILL /WC/ ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA.
FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E...A WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR 1-2 HRS OF
-30 TO -35 WC`S IN THE 6AM-9AM TIMEFRAME. JUST AS TEMPS BOTTOM
OUT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THIS WILL HAPPEN DURING THE
MORNING RUSH.
SNOW: A NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF HAS DEVELOPED ON SATELLITE WITH A
BLOSSOMING AREA OF DEFORMATION -SN OVER WRN KANSAS. THIS HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER N THAN THE 12Z NAM-DERIVED HI-RES MODELS FCST. THE
17Z HRRR HAS IT AND BELIEVE THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A
TOUCH OF -SN OVER PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS...ESPECIALLY FROM
STOCKTON-OSBORNE-BELOIT SOUTHWARD. A CHANCE OF -SN IS NOW IN THE
FCST. THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FCST TO DROP ESE WHICH WILL
ACTUALLY DRAG THE SNOW SHIELD AWAY FROM N-CNTRL KS AS SUNSET
APPROACHES.
TOMORROW: HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE MOVING IN AT DAWN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROF. SO OVERALL EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY AND
BLUSTERY DAY. HOW QUICKLY TEMPS WARM UP IS UNCERTAIN. SO CONFIDENCE
IN THE HOURLY TEMPS IS BELOW AVERAGE.
WENT ABOVE NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE ON WIND SPEEDS. AS A LEE-SIDE TROF
DEVELOPS...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TO 16 MB ACROSS NEB. THE
GFS/EC/NAM/SREF HAVE A 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAX AND BELIEVE WE
WILL TAP INTO THE UNDERSIDE OF IT.
MIXING HEIGHTS ARTIFICIALLY TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM WHICH
HAS ITS SNOWCOVER BIAS. EVEN IF WE USE THE CONSERVATIVE GFS MIXING
HEIGHTS AROUND 2K FT...THAT STILL WOULD ALLOW FOR MIXING DOWN 30
KTS.
HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-4F FROM THE PRIOR GID FCST...ALONG AND W OF
HWY 281.
POST MORTEM: LAST NIGHT`S SNOW RISK OVER CNTRL/NRN KS ENDED UP
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WHAT THE MODELS DEPICTED. THESE TYPE OF
SITUATIONS THAT ARE DRIVEN BY JET STREAK AND FRONTAL FORCING /IN THE
MID-LEVELS/ ARE INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO FCST. THERE IS NO LOW PRES
FROM WHICH WE DERIVE OUR TRADITIONAL FCST CUES. THESE ISOLATED
NARROW SNOW BANDS HAVE VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY. THE HI-RES MESOSCALE
MODELS DEPICT THEM VERY WELL /WHEN AND IF THEY ARE CORRECT/. YOU CAN
THROW OUT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS. THEY CANT HANDLE THESE SMALL
FEATURES AND ARE WAYYYY TO BROAD WITH THEIR QPF. THE BAND DID
DEVELOP BUT IT WAS MODELED TO BECOME STATIONARY ALONG/NEAR I-70
WHICH IT DID NOT. IT WAS TRANSIENT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME FRAME OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS...AS IS TYPICAL SEVERAL
PERIODS HAD HIGH/LOW TEMPS TWEAKED UPWARD OR DOWNWARD AS MUCH AS 2-5
DEGREES...BUT THE OVERALL THEME OF A TRANSITION TO MILDER WEATHER
REMAINS INTACT. THAT BEING SAID...ITS NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO BE A
CASE WHERE EACH DAY GETS PROGRESSIVELY WARMER...AS DAYS SUCH AS
WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY COULD END UP BEING EITHER
SMALL OR POTENTIALLY LARGER BUMPS IN THE ROAD. MEANWHILE...BOTH
THURSDAY AND VERY PRELIMINARILY NEXT SUNDAY BOTH LOOK LIKE THE BEST
CANDIDATES FOR THE MILDEST DAYS OF THE NEXT 7 WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 60S.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...THE MAJORITY OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD SHOULD BE
DRY...BUT 20-30 POPS CONTINUE FOR ALL OR PARTS OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A NEW SLIGHT CHANCE
HAS BEEN ADDED TO NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY DAYTIME...MAKING NOW A
TOTAL OF 4 PERIODS MENTIONING SOME RISK OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN BOTH OF THESE
WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING THE TUES
NIGHT-WED POSSIBILITY. FOR ONLY BEING A FEW DAYS AWAY...ITS STILL
TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER 1) THERE IS EVEN MUCH CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP AT ALL AND HENCE POPS KEPT LOW THUS FAR AND 2) IF PRECIP
DOES FALL...WHAT TYPE WILL IT ASSUME? KEEPING WITH THE REASONING
DISCUSSED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...HAVE KEPT ANY TUES-NIGHT WED PRECIP
TYPE AS SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW...BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SIGNS IN SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET/SOME TYPE OF WINTRY MIX COULD COME INTO PLAY HERE AS WELL.
GIVEN TIME IS STILL ON OUR SIDE HERE WITH THIS POSSIBLE ROUND OF
PRECIP STILL BEING 48+ HOURS AWAY...WILL KEEP THE BASIC TYPES FOR
NOW AND AVOID CLUTTERING THE FORECAST WITH TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
AND/OR CAUSING UNDUE CONCERN AS THE MENTION OF MIXED-PHASE WINTRY
TYPES CAN SOMETIMES DO. AS FOR POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH ANY
TUES NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PRECIP...ITS OBVIOUSLY WAY TOO EARLY TO TALK
SPECIFICS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS WITHIN 72
HOURS OF NOW HAVE TOSSED A VERY GENERIC COVERAGE OF AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1 INCH INTO THE OFFICIAL
SNOWFALL GRIDS. THE SAME SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW PRECIP TYPE ROUTE WAS
USED WITH THE FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT POPS...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE OF A TRUE SNOW EVENT WITH
LESS RISK OF MIXED-TYPES SHOULD IT OCCUR.
GETTING INTO MORE DETAIL AND STARTING WITH MONDAY
NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS UNDER
A BROAD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT THAT DEFINES MUCH OF THE
CONUS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME LOWER STRATUS COULD DEVELOP
AND STREAM NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE CWA IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BUT AM NOT SOLD ON THIS SCENARIO SO SKY COVER IS GENERALLY
AIMED INTO PARTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY BREEZES OF
AT LEAST 5-10 MPH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT
LOW TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY
MORNING BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THESE
VALUES...STILL AIMING FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 9-14 ABOVE ZERO.
FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE OVERALL STORY IN
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS INVOLVES THE GRADUAL EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
DEVELOPMENT OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE
PACIFIC COAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. WITH THE MAIN BATCH OF FORCING
STILL WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY HAVE KEPT IT
DRY...AND EVEN RAISED TEMPS 2-4 DEGREES GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT STARTS TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ZONES
IN THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THAT CLOUDS ARE NOT OVERLY
ABUNDANT...ITS POSSIBLE THAT ADVERTISED HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 30S
NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH...BUT ITS
ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE HIGHS ADVERTISED BY THE LAST FEW NAM
RUNS APPEAR WAY TOO COLD. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES GROW...BUT VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF BRING AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP OF AT LEAST SOME VARIETY
INTO THE AREA BEFORE MOVING IT OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW STRONG THE SYNOPTIC FORCING/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE WITH THIS WAVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AS THAT WILL ULTIMATELY
SPELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LEGITIMATE LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
SUCH AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM AND OTHER MODELS...OR ESSENTIALLY NOTHING
WHATSOEVER AS ADVERTISED BY THE 12Z GEM MODEL. THE PRESENCE OF
PRECIP OR LACK THEREOF WILL ALSO AFFECT HIGHS WED...AND WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING LOW OPTED TO MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS WITH
GENERALLY MID-UPPER 30S.
THURSDAY DAYTIME THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS LOOKS TO FEATURE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BEFORE GIVING WAY TO THE
NEXT POTENTIAL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AS
A RESULT...A BIT OF A TEMPERATURE ROLLER-COASTER STARTS TO DEVELOP.
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW/GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION GOING AHEAD
OF THIS DISTURBANCE ON THURS...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
AWHILE...AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH A RANGE FROM UPPER
40S-UPPER 50S. THEN FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A POTENTIALLY
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA...AND AS
A RESULT FRIDAY HIGHS WERE LOWERED 3-5 DEGREES...BUT STILL UPPER 30S
NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH FOR NOW. AS EARLIER MENTIONED...SLIGHT POPS
MAINLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH COULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW PER THE LATEST
ECMWF BUT LESS-SO THE GFS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND ASSUMING THAT FRIDAY
NIGHT PRECIP MOVES OUT BY SATURDAY DAYTIME...AS THE PATTERN ALOFT
AGAIN TRANSITIONS TO RIDGING. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO SATURDAY HIGHS
WITH A RANGE OF 40S ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF IS
COOLER THAN THIS. VERY PRELIMINARILY...SUNDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE
OUTRIGHT-WARMEST DAY OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST...AND FOR NOW HAVE
WIDESPREAD 50S IN NEB ZONES AND LOW 60S IN KS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
A SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS DURING THE
NIGHT. DURING THE MORNING...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO GET HIGH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN MARCH. IT HAS ONLY HAPPENED 5 TIMES EVER AT GRAND ISLAND AND
HASTINGS.
VULNERABLE LOW TEMP RECORDS TODAY:
GRAND ISLAND: -5 IN 1960 (TIED)
HASTINGS: -5 IN 1913 (TIED)
* BOTH OF THESE RECORDS CAN BE BROKEN IF TEMPS DROP BELOW -5F
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
VULNERABLE COLDEST DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TODAY:
GRAND ISLAND: 10 IN 2002 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH: 7)
HASTINGS: 11 IN 2002 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH: 7)
VULNERABLE LOW TEMP RECORDS FOR TOMORROW 3/3:
GRAND ISLAND: -16 IN 1960
HASTINGS: -10 IN 1960
ALL-TIME COLDEST HIGH TEMPS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH:
GRAND ISLAND: 4 ON 3/10/1948
HASTINGS: 3 ON 3/11/1948
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
061>064-073>076.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ060-072-077-
082>087.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1024 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.AVIATION...
SNOW WILL EXIT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE 3 AM LEAVING MVFR CEILINGS
AND DECREASING NORTH WINDS BEHIND. GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN GENERAL
WILL DIMINISH BEFORE SUNRISE AND BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTER
DAYBREAK. CEILINGS WILL RISE ABOVE MVFR CATEGORY BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
UPDATE...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THE DRY SLOT
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW HAS EFFECTIVELY ENDED SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING REPORTED
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DESPITE THE LACK
OF RADAR ECHOES. FARTHER NORTH... THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WITH
SOME RECENT REDEVELOPMENT OBSERVED IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MAY
STILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
UNDERNEATH THE PIVOT POINT OF THE PRECIPITATION BANDS IN THE
NORTH. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WARNING IN PLACE IN THE NORTH AT THIS
TIME /ALTHOUGH WE HAD WHITTLED AWAY AT THE HEADLINES EARLIER THIS
EVENING/.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
AVIATION...
THE LAST BAND OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL MOVE EAST OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE
MORNING MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A MULTI-FACETED WINTER WEATHER MESS CONTINUES TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. WV SATELLITE SHOWS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DEEPENING ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WITH
WELL PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ENTERING WRN OK...AND AREA OF
DEFORMATION/BANDED SNOW OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. AHEAD OF THIS
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR...SCT SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTAINING HAIL CONTINUE. INSTABILITY REMAINS
TOO MARGINAL FOR SEVERE HAIL...BUT SEVERAL REPORTS OF DIMES AND
NICKELS HAVE COME IN. EXPECT THE LIKLIHOOD OF HAIL TO WANE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT HEAVY SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOOMERS
THAT HAPPEN TO AFFECT YOUR LOCATION. IN FACT...SLEETFALL RATES OF
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE PROBABLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTIVE CORES. HOWEVER...THESE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN...AND EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SLEET AND SNOW TO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RES HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
PERHAPS THE HEAVIEST SLEET WILL FALL OVER EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OR GREATER SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA WARRANTED A WINTER STORM WARNING. AREAS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
HAVE CERTAINLY SEEN SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT WSW CRITERIA WILL BE MET ON A LARGE SCALE...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OVER
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNING IN THESE AREAS...THOUGH SEVERAL MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIER SNOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH...AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.
THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CARRY INTO THE
WEE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. ONCE WE GET TO SUNRISE TOMORROW...THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.
SINGLE DIGIT TO NEAR ZERO LOWS ARE FORECAST OVER A GOOD PART OF
OKLAHOMA...WITH LOWER TEENS OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. THIS COMBINED WITH NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FROM NEAR ZERO SOUTH TO -15 DEGREES NORTH. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO
THE 20S AND 30S TOMORROW...SO DON`T EXPECT A LOT OF MELTING. ROAD
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS RIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ONCE WE GET THROUGH TOMORROW...THINGS ARE LOOKING UP. YES...IT
WILL STILL BE CHILLY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS POSITIVE
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO. MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIP
THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS SHOULD MAINLY FALL IN LIQUID FORM...THOUGH
PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY GET A RAIN/SNOW MIX. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM EACH DAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR JUST IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WELCOME TO WINTER IN MARCH
EVERYONE!
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 7 24 17 46 / 50 0 10 10
HOBART OK 5 27 18 49 / 30 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 12 32 22 50 / 10 0 10 10
GAGE OK -2 25 19 48 / 60 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 3 20 13 41 / 100 0 10 0
DURANT OK 13 28 23 46 / 30 0 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ013-
017>020-023>032-040>043-046>048-050>052.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR OKZ004>036-038-
040-042.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ004>008-
010>012.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/09/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
349 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF LARGELY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE MID-STATE THIS MORNING WITH SFC LOW NOW APPALACHIANS VICINITY
AND SFC TEMPS SUB-FREEZING TO NEAR THE AL BORDER. BACK EDGE MOVING
EAST PRETTY RAPIDLY AND HAS AROUND THE PLATEAU. GFS/ECM LITTLE
SLOW WITH ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN. 06Z NAM/LATEST HRRR BLOWING HEAVY
FREEZING PCPN OFF THE PLATEAU SHORTLY SEEMINGLY MORE REASONABLE
GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATION DATA.
WARM NOSE CURRENTLY STILL AROUND H9-H7 EXPECTED SCOUR OUT OF ALL
EXCEPT PLATEAU BY 12Z...THEN THERE AROUND 15Z. EXPECT BREAK IN
PCPN TO CONTINUE FOR A SHORT TIME EARLY THIS MORNING BUT REFIRE
11Z-18Z OR SO AS SNOW WHILE UL LOW/TROUGH PASSES. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL MOST LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND IT
SEEMS THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION SOUTH. THERE
HAS BEEN GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE ACCUMULATION NORTH/WEST OF NASHVILLE
AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL THAT MAY
AGGRAVATE SITUATION. AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL LARGELY LOOKS AT OR BELOW
1 INCH SOUTH. THUS WITH CURRENT AND FCST TRENDS...HAVE ADJUSTED
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.
PCPN ENDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL LEAVE THE AREA IN A
DRY SPELL UNTIL AN UPPER LOW AND WEAK FRONT BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO THE AREA ON THU. WEAK RIDGING ON FRI WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/UPPER TROUGH LATER SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS
COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 28 18 42 27 / 100 10 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 25 11 37 19 / 100 10 10 10
CROSSVILLE 28 16 46 28 / 100 10 10 10
COLUMBIA 31 18 44 29 / 90 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 31 21 46 29 / 60 10 10 10
WAVERLY 26 11 40 20 / 100 10 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TNZ010-
011-031>034-064>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ058-
060-061-063-075-077-093>095.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ005>009-023>030-
056-057-059-062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ078>080.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1038 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...AND TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE CIGS MAY IMPROVE A FEW HOURS EARLIER AS WELL.
THUS...MADE THOSE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TERMINALS. CIGS ALREADY AT
MVFR AT KVCT AND KLRD...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO...WITH IFR CIGS
IMPROVING TO MVFR BEFORE 12Z. EXPECTING VFR CIGS AT KVCT AND KLRD
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE (AOA 13Z)...WITH VFR CIGS AT KALI AND KCRP
ABOUT 16Z. SHOULD HAVE VFR CIGS REST OF TERMINAL FORECAST. GOING A
BIT LOWER ON WINDS BUT STILL GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING ALL
TERMINAL (AND MAINLY NORTH)...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS. FINALLY...PUT A TEMPO IN FOR -RA AT KALI
AND KCRP BASED ON RADAR BUT EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO WANE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA
THIS EVENING RESULTING IN STRONG GUSTY N WINDS AND FALLING TEMPS.
BASED ON THE LATEST TEMP TRENDS AND HOW FAST THEY ARE FALLING AND
DUE TO SEVERAL MODELS PROGING FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND LOWERED MN TEMPS BY A
FEW DEGREES RESULTING IN A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE NRN CWA AND
MORE WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW 25 DEGREES. THEREFORE HAVE
EXPANDED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE CWA
INCLUDING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES. ALSO
ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THE BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZING TEMPS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA A LITTLE
FASTER BY A COUPLE OF HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTCIPATED. HAVE UPDATED FCST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER FROPA AND WENT EARLIER WITH THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS. WINDS BEHIND THE FROPA HAVE BEEN
INITIALLY GUSTING BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS THEN DECREASING TO
28-35KTS...THEREFORE AM NOT ANTCIPATING WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REMAINS IN EFFECT. ISOLD SHRA`S HAVE ALSO BEEN DVLPG
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
FROM NW TO SE. SOME MODELS PROG MN TEMPS OF 31 DEGREES AROUND VCT
BUT THINK CLOUD COVER AND STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP MN TEMPS JUST ABV
FREEZING BUT A BRIEF DIP TO 32 DEGREES AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NRN CWA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ONLY MADE
TWEAKS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WSHFT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER FROPA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH (WHICH IS VERY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST)...CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR AT KCRP...KVCT AND KALI BUT BE
MVFR AT KLRD. CIGS WILL FALL RAPIDLY AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS...BUT
MAY TAKE A BIT OF TIME AT KLRD (BASED ON SATELLITE AND GUIDANCE).
FRONT ALREADY THROUGH KVCT AND SHOULD BE THROUGH REMAINDER OF
TERMINALS BY 02Z (AND PROBABLY EARLIER). SOME SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARY
EXPECTED...BUT THUNDER UNLIKELY BASED ON CAP WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD THUNDER IN CHECK. RATHER WINDY TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOA
20 KNOTS AND GUSTS AOA 30 KNOTS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AT KLRD.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR...THEN VFR (BUT STILL CIGS) DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS AND GUSTS FINALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. FRONT
SHOULD ENTER THE AREA IN AN HOUR OR TWO AND MOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS FAR OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...WITH NO THUNDER
REPORTED YET. THINK LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ALONG OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TUMBLE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY BE ABOUT 40 TO 45 DEGREES COOLER MONDAY MORNING
COMPARED TO RIGHT NOW. IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER TEMPS...STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE EXISTS BETWEEN MAV/MET WIND SPEEDS WITH
THE MAV SUGGESTING WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. TEMPERED WIND SPEEDS
A BIT BUT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NONETHELESS WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY COULD BECOME NECESSARY IF
SPEEDS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AN ISSUE THOUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION
WHERE WC VALUES WILL FALL BETWEEN 20 AND 25 AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SOMETHING ALSO
WORTH MONITORING WILL BE THE PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE HRRR HAS DEVELOPED PRECIP OVER MUCH OF
SOUTH TEXAS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT HAVE KEPT
SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
40S ON MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RAMP BACK UP ON MONDAY NIGHT AS
850MB FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN BECOMES
ESTABLISHED.
MARINE...VERY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BETWEEN 35 AND 40
KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING OVER THE
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD BETWEEN 6 AND 8
FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 8 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING
ON MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...S/W TROUGH AXIS WILL KICK EAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN ZONES AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AN INCREASE IN NVA
SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCES RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AS
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH SKIRTS EAST ACROSS TX. THIS SYSTEM IS PROG TO BE
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE STARVED THAN MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY SYSTEM...AND THUS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NW FLOW FROM SFC TO UPPER LEVELS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SUNNIER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. BRIEF
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY TRANSITIONS TO MERIDIONAL BY THE WEEKEND
WITH BOTH ECMWF/GFS WANTING TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WANTING TO CUT OFF A STRONG H5 LOW ACROSS
NW MEX AND SHIFT IT EAST TOWARDS THE BIG BEND REGION. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR LATTER PERIODS DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PROGRESSES CLOSER. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR TUES WITH ONLY TEMPERED
MODIFICATION ON WEDNESDAY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP EXPECTED THURS
AND FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY
IMPACTS THE AREA LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 35 47 38 44 44 / 30 20 50 50 20
VICTORIA 33 47 36 42 41 / 30 10 50 50 20
LAREDO 38 46 39 52 47 / 10 10 20 10 10
ALICE 35 46 38 45 43 / 20 10 40 40 20
ROCKPORT 33 48 39 45 45 / 30 20 50 50 20
COTULLA 36 49 37 48 44 / 10 10 30 10 10
KINGSVILLE 35 45 38 46 44 / 30 20 50 50 20
NAVY CORPUS 37 46 41 45 45 / 30 20 50 50 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
GW/86...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1142 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COLD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE HIGH...WITH READINGS A
FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ZERO DEGREE MARK. WIND CHILL
VALUES REMAIN IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AT MANY LOCATIONS OVER EAST-
CENTRAL/CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHER THAN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH
OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...THOUGH CIRRUS FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM
STORM SYSTEM IS CROSSING THE BORDER INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. OTHER
LOW STRATUS IS DRIFTING SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN SHORELINE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS ARE THE MAIN
FOCUS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES EAST TONITE.
TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE MOISTURE THAT IS APPROACHING NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR DRYING UP AS IT RUNS INTO THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW FEW TO SCT SKY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN CASE A LITTLE MOISTURE IS PICKED UP OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE NAM IS DEVELOPING A LAKE INDUCED
SURFACE TROUGH UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...MAY SEE SCT LAKE CLOUDS MOVE JUST INLAND ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD FLURRIES
INTO THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE THAT HAPPENING. THE OTHER ISSUE
IS TEMPS/WIND CHILL HEADLINES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AND THEN SLACKENS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH. CONDITIONS ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
DECOUPLING THAN LAST NIGHT AND WILL SHOW THAT TREND OCCURRING MAINLY
AFTER 06Z. THIS MAKES FOR A DILEMMA IN REGARDS TO WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...WHICH REQUIRE AT 3 KTS OF WIND. THINK THERE COULD BE A
FEW HOUR PERIOD OF WIND CHILL CRITERIA BEING MET BEFORE WINDS BECOME
CALM WITH VALUES FALLING BETWEEN 20 TO 30 BELOW. TOUGH TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT HEADLINES WITH SUCH A SHORT DURATION EVENT...EVEN
THOUGH THE CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE TANKING TEMPERATURES. AFTER
COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO ISSUE WIND CHILLS
HEADLINES TO KEEP THE MAP PRETTY. THE MIDNIGHT CREW CAN CANCEL
EARLY IF DESIRED. DROPPED LOWS BY PERHAPS A DEGREE IN SPOTS.
MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. UNDER PLENTY OF SUN...TEMPS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE LOWER TEENS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
NEAR ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES...
WHILE REMAINING BELOW NORM...MODERATE FROM WHAT WE HAVE TODAY.
PATTERN AMPLIFIES SOME TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGE REBUILDING
OVER THE WEST COAST AND TROFFING SETTING UP AGAIN OVER CENTRAL
U.S. IN LATER PERIODS FEATURE TO WATCH...SIG SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SYSTEM AND FOLLOW ON WEAKER WAVES TO
PUSH COLD FRONT THROUGH STATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCE
FOR PCPN THROUGH PERIOD. GULF MOISTURE NOT A PLAYER...SO AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO LOW
TO MID 20S.
IN NEAR TERM...TWO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO
TUE AND AGAIN TUE EVENING. SHORTWAVES COMBINE WITH WEAK WAA AND
JET ENERGY THESE PERIODS...WITH TUE NIGHT SYSTEM AFFECTING MAINLY
SOUTH PART OF CWA. FOR MON NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
YESTERDAY AND TODAY WITH CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING WEAK LIFT THROUGH
DEEP AREA OF GOOD DENDRICTIC GROWTH RATES. HAVE BUMPED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP GIVEN EXPECTED 20 TO 1 SNOW RATIOS. A GOOD INCH
TO UP TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WI LATE TUE
NIGHT...WED MORN...CLEARING SKIES OUT WED. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS EXPECTED WILL BRING SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY TODAY OF LAKE MI SHOWING
LIMITED OPEN WATER...SO WILL NOT PUT INTO GRIDS AT THIS TIME. GFS
STILL ODD MODEL OUT BEING QUICKER WITH NEXT PLAINS SYSTEM BRINGING
PCPN INTO REGION WED NIGHT. HAVE STAYED WITH MAJORITY WITH SLOWER
TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MIDDLE
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
DAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS AND DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. AN INCH OR TWO OF LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW ARE LIKELY
IN MOST PLACES.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ013-020>022-031-
037>040-045-048>050-073-074.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>012-018-
019-030-035-036.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
625 AM PST MON MAR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PCPN IN NRN CA GETTING CLOSE TO THE CWA THIS
MORNING. WEB CAM AT BOGARD REST AREA IN WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY
INDICATES WET PAVEMENT. THE PCPN IS LIKELY LIGHT ENOUGH RIGHT NOW
TO BE MISSED BY RADAR. IN ANY EVENT PCPN IS MOVING IN AND THIS IS
A BIT FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS OVER THE NW CWA THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH
FOR A WHILE RESULTING IN ONLY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF LASSEN COUNTY JUST EAST OF LASSEN PARK. IT IS LIKELY
THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED A BIT MORE TODAY OVER THE NORTH.
ALSO BUMPED UP QPF A LITTLE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 09 UTC SREF. 20
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM PST MON MAR 3 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
A BAND OF SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING AREAS OF RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MORE RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SIERRA AND
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. LATER THIS WEEK, DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE BAND OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM HAWAII TO THE CENTRAL CA COAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE WEST
COAST. HOWEVER, DESPITE THIS DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, FORCING IS
LIMITED WHICH WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION INTENSITY EAST OF THE
SIERRA CREST AND INTO WESTERN NV THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORED THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW FOR LATER TONIGHT, THE 06Z GFS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SPREAD
MORE AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, WITH
A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD PUSH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM 6500 TO 7000 FEET, BUT GIVEN THE
SUBTROPICAL AND EVEN TROPICAL ORIGIN OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME, THEY
COULD RISE 500-1000 FEET HIGHER THAN THESE PROJECTIONS AT TIMES.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AROUND LAKE LEVEL IN
THE TAHOE BASIN FOR THIS EVENT.
MODEL QPF INDICATES UP TO 0.50 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP
NEAR THE SIERRA CREST WEST OF TAHOE, WHICH WOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE
TO ABOUT 4 INCHES OF WET SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET. A BROAD AREA OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.20 INCH IS ALSO INDICATED DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA. PRECIP CHANCES WERE INCREASED
ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 50 AND I-80 CORRIDORS FOR LATE TONIGHT, BUT
GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS, RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED SOONER IN THESE AREAS.
FOR TUESDAY, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AS FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPS INCREASING TO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST WESTERN NV VALLEYS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FURTHER WARMING IS LIKELY AS
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AGAIN WITH ONSET TIME OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AS THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO NORTHEAST
CA DURING THE DAY, WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF ON MEASURABLE PRECIP
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
STRONGER PRECIP SHADOWING EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST, WHILE IN THE
SIERRA THE SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE EVEN HIGHER THAN THE FIRST
PRECIP EVENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT IN WESTERN NV
IS MORE LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. MJD
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO BUMP
UP POPS THURSDAY MORNING AND ADD POPS FOR SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE NRN PART OF THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA
BEFORE STALLING AND FURTHER WEAKENING OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE
REGION. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT STAY LESS
THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE QPF OVER FAR NRN AREAS IS BETTER THAN
0.50 INCHES...SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM START FAIRLY HIGH.
THUS...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
FOR NOW WE DO NOT SEE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THIS SYSTEM. OF
COURSE...THIS COULD ALL CHANGE.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FOR FRIDAY THEN SLIDES EAST SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. AFTER WARM TEMPS ON
THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY...THEN TEMPS BUMP
UP AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE ANOTHER ONE OF THOSE DAYS
WHERE WINDS GUST INTO THE 40 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY FROM HWY 50
NORTHWARD.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT MOISTURE TAP AND SHOULD HAVE GOOD ENOUGH
DYNAMICS TO SQUEEZE OUT PCPN OVER THE NRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. THE
BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR NOW LOOK TO BE FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD
INTO NE CA. EVEN SO...THIS FAR OUT PCPN AMOUNTS ARE QUITE VARIABLE
WITH ECMWF SHOWING THE BEST AT AROUND 0.35 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA.
ALL THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THE EVENT NEXT WEEKEND
SO RIGHT NOW THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM IN MUCH DEVELOPING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. 20
AVIATION...
PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING INTO THE NRN CA COAST THIS MORNING. AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE NRN
FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE TAHOE BASIN.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH ACROSS
NE CA AND FAR NW NV BY EARLY EVENING WITH MOST MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LONGER.
SNOW LEVELS START FAIRLY HIGH TODAY SO ANY TERMINALS THAT PICK UP
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY DROP TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AROUND THE LAKE
TAHOE BASIN AND PARTS OF PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BANDS. THIS WILL DRIVE KTRK AND KTVL TO IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AFTER 4/02 UTC...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE RUNWAYS WILL BE MINIMAL. RIDGE GUSTS SHOULD BE
NO WORSE THAN 50 MPH TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE SIERRA CREST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT
MOST OTHER AREAS SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 20
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
329 AM PST MON MAR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BAND OF SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING AREAS OF RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MORE RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SIERRA AND
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. LATER THIS WEEK, DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE BAND OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM HAWAII TO THE CENTRAL CA COAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE WEST
COAST. HOWEVER, DESPITE THIS DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, FORCING IS
LIMITED WHICH WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION INTENSITY EAST OF THE
SIERRA CREST AND INTO WESTERN NV THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORED THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW FOR LATER TONIGHT, THE 06Z GFS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SPREAD
MORE AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, WITH
A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD PUSH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM 6500 TO 7000 FEET, BUT GIVEN THE
SUBTROPICAL AND EVEN TROPICAL ORIGIN OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME, THEY
COULD RISE 500-1000 FEET HIGHER THAN THESE PROJECTIONS AT TIMES.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AROUND LAKE LEVEL IN
THE TAHOE BASIN FOR THIS EVENT.
MODEL QPF INDICATES UP TO 0.50 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP
NEAR THE SIERRA CREST WEST OF TAHOE, WHICH WOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE
TO ABOUT 4 INCHES OF WET SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET. A BROAD AREA OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.20 INCH IS ALSO INDICATED DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA. PRECIP CHANCES WERE INCREASED
ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 50 AND I-80 CORRIDORS FOR LATE TONIGHT, BUT
GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS, RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED SOONER IN THESE AREAS.
FOR TUESDAY, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AS FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPS INCREASING TO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST WESTERN NV VALLEYS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FURTHER WARMING IS LIKELY AS
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AGAIN WITH ONSET TIME OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AS THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO NORTHEAST
CA DURING THE DAY, WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF ON MEASURABLE PRECIP
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
STRONGER PRECIP SHADOWING EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST, WHILE IN THE
SIERRA THE SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE EVEN HIGHER THAN THE FIRST
PRECIP EVENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT IN WESTERN NV
IS MORE LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. MJD
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO BUMP
UP POPS THURSDAY MORNING AND ADD POPS FOR SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE NRN PART OF THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA
BEFORE STALLING AND FURTHER WEAKENING OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE
REGION. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT STAY LESS
THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE QPF OVER FAR NRN AREAS IS BETTER THAN
0.50 INCHES...SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM START FAIRLY HIGH.
THUS...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
FOR NOW WE DO NOT SEE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THIS SYSTEM. OF
COURSE...THIS COULD ALL CHANGE.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FOR FRIDAY THEN SLIDES EAST SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. AFTER WARM TEMPS ON
THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY...THEN TEMPS BUMP
UP AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE ANOTHER ONE OF THOSE DAYS
WHERE WINDS GUST INTO THE 40 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY FROM HWY 50
NORTHWARD.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT MOISTURE TAP AND SHOULD HAVE GOOD ENOUGH
DYNAMICS TO SQUEEZE OUT PCPN OVER THE NRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. THE
BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR NOW LOOK TO BE FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD
INTO NE CA. EVEN SO...THIS FAR OUT PCPN AMOUNTS ARE QUITE VARIABLE
WITH ECMWF SHOWING THE BEST AT AROUND 0.35 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA.
ALL THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THE EVENT NEXT WEEKEND
SO RIGHT NOW THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM IN MUCH DEVELOPING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. 20
&&
.AVIATION...
PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING INTO THE NRN CA COAST THIS MORNING. AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE NRN
FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE TAHOE BASIN.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH ACROSS
NE CA AND FAR NW NV BY EARLY EVENING WITH MOST MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LONGER.
SNOW LEVELS START FAIRLY HIGH TODAY SO ANY TERMINALS THAT PICK UP
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY DROP TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AROUND THE LAKE
TAHOE BASIN AND PARTS OF PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BANDS. THIS WILL DRIVE KTRK AND KTVL TO IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AFTER 4/02 UTC...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE RUNWAYS WILL BE MINIMAL. RIDGE GUSTS SHOULD BE
NO WORSE THAN 50 MPH TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE SIERRA CREST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT
MOST OTHER AREAS SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 20
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
647 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WELL TO OUR SE. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
KEEPING OUR TEMPS WARM EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...APPROACHING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVE EAST ALONG IT. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY...CURRENTLY
STRETCHING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPS/NW SC/N GA WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
OUR NW FA BY 12Z TO 13Z...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL BACK
DOOR THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN QUESTION
INVOLVES PRECIP TYPE BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT A RAPID COOL DOWN
WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY A
WIND SHIFT WITH BREEZY NE WINDS. HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING IN...MODELS INDICATE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL BE DRYING OUT. SO...AT THIS TIME..IT APPEARS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
FOR THE NE FA THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. IMPACT EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL...SO WILL NOT
ISSUE AN ADVISORY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES TODAY AND
TONIGHT BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS ON WARMER
AREA LAKES TONIGHT COULD APPROACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT CONFIDENCE A LITTLE TOO LOW TO ISSUE LWA AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT TO PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUE/WED LEADING TO A SURFACE WAVE OR TWO
RIDING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION INTO OUR REGION. GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND HIGHER POPS. WILL FAVOR SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCY...AND GIVEN APPEARANCE
OF DRY MID LEVELS...THINK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAVORING THE SOUTHERN
FA TUE NT AND WED LOOKS OK. LOOKING AT PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONGER UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SE CONUS WILL PROMOTE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD STALLED FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH PROVIDING MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR FA FOR WED NT THRU THU
NT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH ECMWF
STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LOW AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE
LOW...THUS PROVIDING A WETTER SOLUTION FOR OUR FA. LARGE RANGE IN
POPS NOTED IN GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. HPC GUIDANCE PROVIDING
LIKELY POPS...IN LINE WITH ONGOING FORECAST. IN SITU WEDGE AT THE
SURFACE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDING A LITTLE WARMER WITH LOW
LEVEL TEMPS/THICKNESS VALUES AND SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS...AND IT
STILL APPEARS ALL RAIN FOR THE PRECIP TYPE. ECMWF ALSO SLOWER WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING OUT WITH INDICATIONS OF LIGHT PRECIP
POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR
SATURDAY. GFS BRINGS THE NEXT FRONT IN SUNDAY...WHILE ECMWF
APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MAYBE SUN NT OR MON.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE 19Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME. MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
NAM AND GFS MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE HRRR SHOWED AN IFR CEILING SPREADING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT. OBS THIS MORNING DO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN GA...BUT LOOKS LIKE THE STRATUS WILL MISS
MOST OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT POSSIBLY OGB WHERE I HAVE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING. LEANED TOWARD THE MAV AND MET MOS
AND MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE OF
THE INCONSISTENT HRRR GUIDANCE. STRONG MIXING HELPED PREVENT ANY FOG
FORMATION THIS MORNING AND NON IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST KCAE 88D VAD
WIND PROFILE INDICATED SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS
MORNING. VWP CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST 40 TO 45 KT
JET FROM 1K FT AND ABOVE. THE NAM INDICATED SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 14-15Z WHEN HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD BECOME
MORE DOMINATE. LATER IN THE DAY...THE NAM AND GFS MOS DIFFERED WITH
THE NAM SHOWING IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
GFS MOS INDICATED LOW-END VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS. WE AVERAGED THIS
GUIDANCE AND FORECASTED MVFR CEILINGS. THE NAM MOS MAY BE TOO LOW
WITH ITS CEILING FORECAST BECAUSE CONSIDERABLE WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD
UP CEILINGS. THERE MAY ALSO BE RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN
NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT BUT BELIEVE THIS RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT
WITH LIMITED EFFECT ON VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS LAMP INDICATED
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE NAM MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTED
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. THE NAM AND GFS MOS...EVEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...STRONG CAA AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH NORTH NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT REMAIN NORTH NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
745 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE TEXT PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH IN
THE SOUTH AND ALSO DROP THE HEAVY SNOW AND THUNDER MENTION. ALSO FINE
TUNED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
IN ADDITION...THE ZONES AND HWO WERE UPDATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PCPN IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA. WHEN THIS EXITS WE WILL LOSE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
PCPN AND THREAT OF THUNDER. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL THE DEFORMATION ZONES PASSES THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND 06Z NAM12. ALSO
FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS. A MORE COMPLETE UPDATE TO THE TEXT PRODUCTS WILL TAKE PLACE
WITH THE EXPIRATION OF THE FLOOD WATCH AT 7 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
...THE REST OF THE NIGHT THROUGH TODAY...
...MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING...
07Z SFC ANALYSIS...AND RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
LOW PRESSURE AREA ROLLING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS IS RUNNING ALONG AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES TO
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE THIN REMAINDER OF THE STATE NOT IN THE DEEP
FREEZE. THE WARM NOSE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...PER OBS AND
THE TRANSITION SHOWING UP IN THE DOPPLER CC LOOP. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN DEPOSITING GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE BEFORE THE SLEET STARTS TO REALLY
ACCUMULATE FOR MOST PLACES. REPORTS OF HALF INCH SLEET TOTALS ARE
STARTING TO COME IN FROM PLACES NORTH AND WEST OF JKL. THE OFFICE
IS PUSHING THAT TOTAL...AS WELL...THOUGH SOME SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN
AT TIMES. THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...AND THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IT HAS LAID ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...IS EVIDENCED BY THE MID TEENS
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY...LOW 20S ALONG THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...AND MID 30S BARELY HOLDING ON OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DEEPER INTO
THE CWA WITH EVEN SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR 20 KTS SHOWING UP IN THE OBS
CLOSER TO THE BLUEGRASS. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONCERN FOR POWER
OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. ON RADAR...AN EXTENDED MASS OF PCPN REMAINS
TO TRANSITION THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHERE IT WILL BE CONVERTED TO
MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW...THOUGH FOR A TIME HEAVY RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. NO CG RETURNS HAVE
SHOWN UP WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN AWHILE...BUT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME IN CLOUD OR CLOUD TO CLOUD BOLTS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVELS AND THE
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SFC SYSTEM GIVING US A LION OF A START
TO MARCH. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND
WILL ROLL NEARLY DUE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EVENING.
THE MODEL AGREEMENT ALOFT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO AGREEMENT AT THE SFC
FOR A COMPLEX ONGOING SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. SO...HAVE INSTEAD LEANED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND THE NAM12 COMBINED WITH
TRENDS AND PCPN PROGRESSION TO GUIDE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
THE HEAVY PCPN...GRADUALLY GOING TO SNOW AND FALLING AT OVER AN INCH
AN HOUR...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BACK
EDGE AND A TAPER REACHING FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY 7 AM AND
SWEEPING EAST BY 10 AM. HAVE USED THIS FOR TIMING THE WORST OF THE
WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS
FOR THIS HEAVY PCPN BAND. THE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
SLEET...THOUGH...SO IN A SENSE WE ARE DODGING A BULLET...BUT THE ROADS
WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM...AS A RESULT. THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS THE LAST OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE...BASICALLY WHAT IS GOING ON
NEAR THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CURRENTLY...PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF AN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE
DRAWN UP THE GRIDS WITH THESE TWO PCPN AREAS AND THEIR PROGRESS IN
MIND. ACCORDINGLY...WILL HOLD ON TO THE WARNINGS AS THEY ARE WITH
SOME CLEAN UP POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z. WILL ALSO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH AS
HEAVY PCPN IN A SEMI-LIQUID FORM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THAT
AREA. EXPECT A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH...BUT JUST AS MUCH SLEET...1/2 TO 1 INCH...THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL BE DELINEATED FURTHER IN THE FORTHCOMING WSW
UPDATES.
USED THE CONSSHORT FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS...BC
VERSION FOR THE LATTER TWO...THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. ALSO DERIVED THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS FROM THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
JUST ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH THE TAPER OF THE SNOW
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...A
STRONG MASS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CONUS. THIS SET UP SHOULD KEEP KY DRY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS WELL AS USHER IN DRY CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THIS PUSH OF COLDER...DRIER
CANADIAN AIR...EXPECT LOWS TO DROP DOWN WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE MORE
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...TO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT JUST PASSED THROUGH...WINDS WERE GUSTY
IN MANY LOCATIONS. LUCKILY...EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIE DOWN BY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE GOOD AND BAD IMPLICATIONS. ON THE DOWN
SIDE...LIGHTER WINDS...IN ADDITION TO CLEAR SKIES AND A COOLER
AIR MASS OVERHEAD...WILL PROVIDE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...HENCE
THE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. ON THE UP SIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DROP THIS LOW...ANY AMOUNT OF WIND WILL ONLY AID TO THE
WIND CHILL FACTOR...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER THAN THEY
REALLY ARE. THAT BEING SAID...WINDS WILL NOT BE NIL. WE CAN EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS IN THE 3 TO 7 KT RANGE...WHICH WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO
DROP WIND CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTH.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT
HIGHER SUN ANGLES FOR MARCH...AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WITH THIS DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO
BOUNCE BACK TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BE BREAKING DOWN
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT DRY AIR WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE AND THEIR WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...SO THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNEVENTFUL.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SE TOWARD
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE NOW LESS INCLINED TO CLOSE
OFF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT THEY ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH IT. SURFACE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL INDICATED OVER
THE GULF...BUT IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST THAN IN RUNS OF RECENT DAYS. AS A
RESULT...IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIRECT EFFECTS
FROM THE CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS IT PASSES.
A TRANSITORY RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITHOUT ANY COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.
ANOTHER LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO HEAD IN FROM THE NW DURING THE WEEKEND. GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE ON THE BIG PICTURE FOR THIS...BUT SHOW SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES. TAKING BOTH INTO CONSIDERATION...THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EVEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A BUFFER
OF LOWER POPS ON BOTH SIDES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MOVES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE STATE ARE STILL EXPERIENCING SOME SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS MID
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR AND IFR
RANGE FOR A BUT LONGER. VFR WX SHOULD TAKE OVER THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-104-106>109-111-112-114.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ079-080-
083>088-110-113-115>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF/JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
625 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PCPN IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA. WHEN THIS EXITS WE WILL LOSE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
PCPN AND THREAT OF THUNDER. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL THE DEFORMATION ZONES PASSES THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND 06Z NAM12. ALSO
FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS. A MORE COMPLETE UPDATE TO THE TEXT PRODUCTS WILL TAKE PLACE
WITH THE EXPIRATION OF THE FLOOD WATCH AT 7 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
...THE REST OF THE NIGHT THROUGH TODAY...
...MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING...
07Z SFC ANALYSIS...AND RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
LOW PRESSURE AREA ROLLING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS IS RUNNING ALONG AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES TO
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE THIN REMAINDER OF THE STATE NOT IN THE DEEP
FREEZE. THE WARM NOSE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...PER OBS AND
THE TRANSITION SHOWING UP IN THE DOPPLER CC LOOP. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN DEPOSITING GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE BEFORE THE SLEET STARTS TO REALLY
ACCUMULATE FOR MOST PLACES. REPORTS OF HALF INCH SLEET TOTALS ARE
STARTING TO COME IN FROM PLACES NORTH AND WEST OF JKL. THE OFFICE
IS PUSHING THAT TOTAL...AS WELL...THOUGH SOME SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN
AT TIMES. THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...AND THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IT HAS LAID ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...IS EVIDENCED BY THE MID TEENS
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY...LOW 20S ALONG THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...AND MID 30S BARELY HOLDING ON OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DEEPER INTO
THE CWA WITH EVEN SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR 20 KTS SHOWING UP IN THE OBS
CLOSER TO THE BLUEGRASS. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONCERN FOR POWER
OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. ON RADAR...AN EXTENDED MASS OF PCPN REMAINS
TO TRANSITION THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHERE IT WILL BE CONVERTED TO
MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW...THOUGH FOR A TIME HEAVY RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. NO CG RETURNS HAVE
SHOWN UP WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN AWHILE...BUT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME IN CLOUD OR CLOUD TO CLOUD BOLTS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVELS AND THE
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SFC SYSTEM GIVING US A LION OF A START
TO MARCH. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND
WILL ROLL NEARLY DUE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EVENING.
THE MODEL AGREEMENT ALOFT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO AGREEMENT AT THE SFC
FOR A COMPLEX ONGOING SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. SO...HAVE INSTEAD LEANED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND THE NAM12 COMBINED WITH
TRENDS AND PCPN PROGRESSION TO GUIDE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
THE HEAVY PCPN...GRADUALLY GOING TO SNOW AND FALLING AT OVER AN INCH
AN HOUR...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BACK
EDGE AND A TAPER REACHING FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY 7 AM AND
SWEEPING EAST BY 10 AM. HAVE USED THIS FOR TIMING THE WORST OF THE
WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS
FOR THIS HEAVY PCPN BAND. THE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
SLEET...THOUGH...SO IN A SENSE WE ARE DODGING A BULLET...BUT THE ROADS
WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM...AS A RESULT. THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS THE LAST OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE...BASICALLY WHAT IS GOING ON
NEAR THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CURRENTLY...PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF AN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE
DRAWN UP THE GRIDS WITH THESE TWO PCPN AREAS AND THEIR PROGRESS IN
MIND. ACCORDINGLY...WILL HOLD ON TO THE WARNINGS AS THEY ARE WITH
SOME CLEAN UP POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z. WILL ALSO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH AS
HEAVY PCPN IN A SEMI-LIQUID FORM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THAT
AREA. EXPECT A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH...BUT JUST AS MUCH SLEET...1/2 TO 1 INCH...THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL BE DELINEATED FURTHER IN THE FORTHCOMING WSW
UPDATES.
USED THE CONSSHORT FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS...BC
VERSION FOR THE LATTER TWO...THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. ALSO DERIVED THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS FROM THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
JUST ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH THE TAPER OF THE SNOW
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...A
STRONG MASS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CONUS. THIS SET UP SHOULD KEEP KY DRY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS WELL AS USHER IN DRY CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THIS PUSH OF COLDER...DRIER
CANADIAN AIR...EXPECT LOWS TO DROP DOWN WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE MORE
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...TO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT JUST PASSED THROUGH...WINDS WERE GUSTY
IN MANY LOCATIONS. LUCKILY...EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIE DOWN BY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE GOOD AND BAD IMPLICATIONS. ON THE DOWN
SIDE...LIGHTER WINDS...IN ADDITION TO CLEAR SKIES AND A COOLER
AIR MASS OVERHEAD...WILL PROVIDE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...HENCE
THE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. ON THE UP SIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DROP THIS LOW...ANY AMOUNT OF WIND WILL ONLY AID TO THE
WIND CHILL FACTOR...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER THAN THEY
REALLY ARE. THAT BEING SAID...WINDS WILL NOT BE NIL. WE CAN EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS IN THE 3 TO 7 KT RANGE...WHICH WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO
DROP WIND CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTH.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT
HIGHER SUN ANGLES FOR MARCH...AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WITH THIS DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO
BOUNCE BACK TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BE BREAKING DOWN
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT DRY AIR WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE AND THEIR WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...SO THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNEVENTFUL.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SE TOWARD
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE NOW LESS INCLINED TO CLOSE
OFF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT THEY ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH IT. SURFACE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL INDICATED OVER
THE GULF...BUT IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST THAN IN RUNS OF RECENT DAYS. AS A
RESULT...IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIRECT EFFECTS
FROM THE CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS IT PASSES.
A TRANSITORY RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITHOUT ANY COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.
ANOTHER LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO HEAD IN FROM THE NW DURING THE WEEKEND. GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE ON THE BIG PICTURE FOR THIS...BUT SHOW SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES. TAKING BOTH INTO CONSIDERATION...THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EVEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A BUFFER
OF LOWER POPS ON BOTH SIDES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MOVES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE STATE ARE STILL EXPERIENCING SOME SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS MID
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR AND IFR
RANGE FOR A BUT LONGER. VFR WX SHOULD TAKE OVER THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-104-106>109-111-112-114.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-
083>088-107-109-110-112>120.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ079-080-
083>088-110-113-115>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF/JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
627 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH TROF EXTENDING W INTO WRN CANADA...
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO COVER A VAST AREA OF CANADA INTO THE NRN
CONUS. HOWEVER...THE COLD IS MODERATING AS 00Z RAOBS SHOWED 850MB
TEMPS OF -21C/-17C/-21C AT KINL/KGRB/KAPX RESPECTIVELY...ALL SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. COLD WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS PACIFIC AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD E IN LOW AMPLITUDE
FLOW. SFC TROF THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT BROUGHT A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A LONE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD/-SHSN
BAND EMANATING FROM A PATCH OF OPEN WATER/BKN ICE NEAR ISLE ROYALE
WAS EXTENDING SSE AND COMBINING WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM SOME
OPEN WATER/BKN ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW TO BRING
FLURRIES/-SHSN TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES/MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO -10 TO -25F IN
GENERAL.
TODAY WILL BE A QUIET DAY WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. MODERATING ARCTIC AIR MASS AND SUNSHINE
WORKING ON LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS MAY STILL FAIL TO GET ABOVE 10F OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND THE NE FCST AREA AS WINDS OFF THE FROZEN LAKE LIMIT
MIXING DEPTH. NAM/GEM SHOW A LAKE BREEZE OR MAYBE MORE
APPROPRIATE...ICE BREEZE...DEVELOPING INTO THE MARQUETTE AREA THIS
AFTN. IF SO...TEMPS MAY FALL BACK SEVERAL DEGREES AFTER RISING INTO
THE TEENS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS NOT WELL AGREED UPON YET...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF -SN WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI AT SOME
POINT TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NRN
PORTION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/DEEP LAYER FORCING AS WELL AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO. THUS...POPS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE S
(LIKELY) WITH CHC TO THE N. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG AVBL PER
280K SFC (ROUGHLY 700-725MB) AND 6HRS OR SO OF -SN...EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH N TO PERHAPS 1-2INCHES FAR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS...TEMPS
AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BLO 0F TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE SERN CWA 12Z TUE...WITH THE BULK
OF ANY LIGHT SNOW SE OF THE CWA AFTER 12Z TUE. HAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LINGERING BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO TUE...BUT ONLY VERY
MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE OF THE CWA WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY ON
WED...WITH AT LEAST CHANCES OF PRECIP RETURNING THU INTO FRI AS
MODEL INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...SO USED A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE WHICH GAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS THU INTO FRI. SHOULD SEE WARMING TEMPS /BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL/ AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THU AND FRI AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 ON FRI.
A COLDER AIRMASS AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND NEAR COMPLETE ICE
COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
-SN WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS. WITH KCMX ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM...IT`S
POSSIBLE CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN VFR TONIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT VIS COULD DROP TO IFR FOR A TIME AT KIWD/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
15-25KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SFC TROF THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TUE...BRINGING A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT.
AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU TUE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE
ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W.
TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH TROF EXTENDING W INTO WRN CANADA...
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO COVER A VAST AREA OF CANADA INTO THE NRN
CONUS. HOWEVER...THE COLD IS MODERATING AS 00Z RAOBS SHOWED 850MB
TEMPS OF -21C/-17C/-21C AT KINL/KGRB/KAPX RESPECTIVELY...ALL SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. COLD WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS PACIFIC AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD E IN LOW AMPLITUDE
FLOW. SFC TROF THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT BROUGHT A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A LONE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD/-SHSN
BAND EMANATING FROM A PATCH OF OPEN WATER/BKN ICE NEAR ISLE ROYALE
WAS EXTENDING SSE AND COMBINING WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM SOME
OPEN WATER/BKN ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW TO BRING
FLURRIES/-SHSN TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES/MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO -10 TO -25F IN
GENERAL.
TODAY WILL BE A QUIET DAY WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. MODERATING ARCTIC AIR MASS AND SUNSHINE
WORKING ON LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS MAY STILL FAIL TO GET ABOVE 10F OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND THE NE FCST AREA AS WINDS OFF THE FROZEN LAKE LIMIT
MIXING DEPTH. NAM/GEM SHOW A LAKE BREEZE OR MAYBE MORE
APPROPRIATE...ICE BREEZE...DEVELOPING INTO THE MARQUETTE AREA THIS
AFTN. IF SO...TEMPS MAY FALL BACK SEVERAL DEGREES AFTER RISING INTO
THE TEENS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS NOT WELL AGREED UPON YET...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF -SN WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI AT SOME
POINT TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NRN
PORTION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/DEEP LAYER FORCING AS WELL AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO. THUS...POPS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE S
(LIKELY) WITH CHC TO THE N. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG AVBL PER
280K SFC (ROUGHLY 700-725MB) AND 6HRS OR SO OF -SN...EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH N TO PERHAPS 1-2INCHES FAR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS...TEMPS
AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BLO 0F TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE SERN CWA 12Z TUE...WITH THE BULK
OF ANY LIGHT SNOW SE OF THE CWA AFTER 12Z TUE. HAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LINGERING BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO TUE...BUT ONLY VERY
MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE OF THE CWA WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY ON
WED...WITH AT LEAST CHANCES OF PRECIP RETURNING THU INTO FRI AS
MODEL INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...SO USED A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE WHICH GAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS THU INTO FRI. SHOULD SEE WARMING TEMPS /BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL/ AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THU AND FRI AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 ON FRI.
A COLDER AIRMASS AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND NEAR COMPLETE ICE
COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD. MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. MVFR
VSBY/CIG WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT IWD WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW THAN SITES FARTHER TO THE EAST WHERE CONDITIONS MAY LOWER AFT
04/06Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
15-25KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SFC TROF THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TUE...BRINGING A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT.
AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU TUE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE
ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W.
TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
524 AM MST MON MAR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OCCURRED IN BILLINGS JUST BEFORE 5
AM MST...AND LIVINGSTON HAS ALSO REPORTED BRIEF FREEZING RAIN...SO
AT LEAST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING WITH ECHOES SEEN ON
RADAR IMAGERY. WE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER TO
THE 4O AND 50 PERCENT RANGE THIS MORNING FROM HARDIN SOUTHEASTWARD
TO THE BROADUS AND EKALAKA AREAS. WE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA WITH A
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN TO ALMOST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE BAKER AND
EKALAKA AREAS. IT/S APPARENT BASED ON THE BRIEF FREEZING RAIN THAT
OCCURRED AT BILLINGS WHERE ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE /INCLUDING THE MOST
RECENT RAP CYCLE/ SUGGESTS 850-HPA TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 C THAT THE
MODELS ARE COMPLETELY UNDERDOING THE AMOUNT OF WARMING ALOFT. THUS
IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT THE ABOVE-FREEZING
LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE EXISTS.
WE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR NOW BECAUSE IT
APPEARS THE MOISTURE IS VERY LIGHT...WHICH MAY NOT MAKE ROADS MUCH
WORSE THAN THEY ARE ALREADY IN MOST AREAS. THE THREAT IS ONE WHICH
WE ARE DEFINITELY CARRYING IN OUR MESSAGING THOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE AN ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING PERIOD AS COLD
ARCTIC AIR RETREATS...OFFERING UP POTENTIAL FOR RAPID WARMING WHEN
AND WHERE THE SHALLOW INVERSION MIXES OUT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR HUGE
TEMPERATURE BUSTS WHERE IT DOES NOT DO SO AS READILY.
TODAY...THE KBLX WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS THE COLD AIR IS
IS VERY SHALLOW /LESS THAN 2000 FT DEEP/ AS OF 10 UTC AS THE WINDS
NEAR THAT LEVEL ARE SOUTHWEST AT 25 KT. OBSERVATIONS IN AND AROUND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONFIRM THIS IDEA WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE THE
5000 FT LEVEL ABOVE 32 F EARLY THIS MORNING. EVEN A SPOTTER AT NYE
REPORTED 40 F AND RAPIDLY COMPACTING/MELTING SNOW AT 08 UTC. THERE
IS NO DOUBT THAT THIS WARM AIR MASS WILL WORK NORTH AND EAST TODAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK 500-HPA SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS ITS
AXIS OVER WESTERN MT AT 10 UTC PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE GUIDANCE
FROM 00 UTC REMAINS CONSISTENT IN PUSHING THE MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT
WITH +4 TO +7 C 850-HPA TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST TO AT LEAST ROUNDUP
AND HYSHAM OVER TOWARD BROADUS BY AFTERNOON. DEEP SNOW PACK IS ONE
ISSUE WITH RESULTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES SINCE IT COULD COOL DOWN
THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER...BUT LINGERING INVERSIONS AND ANY DRAINAGE
OF COLD AIR TRAPPED IN BASINS OR RIVER VALLEYS /SUCH AS THE CLARKS
FORK INTO BILLINGS/ WILL LIKELY POSE A GREATER ISSUE. IT CERTAINLY
GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT WE WILL HAVE A WARM-UP TODAY...BUT WE ARE
NOT CONFIDENT AT ALL IN FORECAST HIGHS IN MOST PLACES. WE CHOSE TO
BLEND THE ONGOING FORECAST TOWARD THE 00 UTC GEM...AND WENT WARMER
THAN EVEN THAT OUTPUT IN THE FOOTHILLS LIKE RED LODGE WERE WE HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S F. WE CHOSE TO KEEP THE
FORECAST HIGHS NEAR 32 F AT BILLINGS GIVEN A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR A
CLARKS FORK DRAINAGE...BUT A 10 F BUST EITHER SIDE OF THAT IS VERY
POSSIBLE. THE 06 UTC GFS PUSHES A WEST WIND INTO BILLINGS AFTER 00
UTC...SO IT/S EVEN POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE HIGHER INTO THE
30S F AFTER SUNSET IN BILLINGS.
OTHERWISE...QUICK-HITTING FORCING WITH THE 500-HPA SHORT WAVE THIS
MORNING COULD YIELD SOME PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS AND LODGE GRASS FROM 12 TO 18 UTC. WE DID
INCLUDE A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN WITH SNOW THIS MORNING FOR MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MT...BUT POPS ARE ONLY AROUND 30
PERCENT BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER 500-HPA SHORT WAVE IS SET TO
CROSS THE AREA...POSING A GREATER RISK OF FREEZING RAIN OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. THE 03 UTC SREF CONFIRMS THE TOP-DOWN
METHOD APPLIED TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AS IT HAS HIGH /50 TO 90/ PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF LIQUID MOISTURE
FROM ROUNDUP AND BILLINGS OVER TO FORSYTH AND BROADUS TONIGHT. ANY
LIQUID MOISTURE WILL REFREEZE ON CONTACT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 32 F...SO AGAIN FREEZING RAIN IS NEEDED
IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE FREEZING RAIN RISK IS GOING
TO BE VERY CONDITIONAL ON PRECIPITATON ACTUALLY FORMING...WHICH IS
NOT A SURE THING...AS BORNE OUT BY 03 UTC SREF PROBABILITIES FOR A
HUNDREDTH OR MORE OF MOISTURE /WHICH ARE 50 PERCENT OR LOWER/. THE
00 UTC ECMWF ALSO BACKED OFF A BIT ON ITS QPF OVERNIGHT...SO THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAIN SIGNALS AND WE THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE AND WENT WITHOUT ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE A CASE WHERE NEAR-TERM TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
WILL BE NEEDED TO HONE IN ON WHERE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF IMPACTS
WILL EXIST...IF THEY DO INDEED OCCUR. NOTE THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE IN LINE FOR ANOTHER MORE-DEFINED SHOT OF SNOW TONIGHT AS WELL.
TUE...WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD 40+ F HIGHS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA BECAUSE THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE TURNS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BEHIND TONIGHT/S SHORT WAVE. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT MAY REMAIN HUNG UP IN
SOUTHEASTERN MT AND MOS-BASED GUIDANCE LENDS SUPPORT TO LOW CLOUDS
OR EVEN FOG IN PLACES LIKE BAKER AND MILES CITY...SO THERE IS ONCE
MORE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TO BE IN PLAY OVER
THE REGION. LOW POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN SHORT WAVES IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...BUT TAKING MOST
OF THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE AT FACE VALUE SUGGESTS THIS COULD MAINLY BE
A DRY PERIOD IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
MODELS CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL BE SCATTERED AS THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY
LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS STRONGER JET
DYNAMICS/ISENTROPIC AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT COMBINE TO BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO MAINLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW BECOMING ZONAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH 700 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 60 KTS. ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS TO LIVINGSTON AND NEAR NYE.
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE WEEK AND ABOVE
SEASONAL VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
WARM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER COLD SURFACE AIRMASS WILL KEEP
OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AND LOWERED CEILINGS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR
WITH THE PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE SNOW BUT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FROM BILLINGS EAST TO
FORSYTH THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH LOCALIZED MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. A SHALLOW LAYER OF ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FROM
BILLINGS TO MILES CITY. RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032 025/043 028/042 029/043 026/039 025/047 032/051
2/S 32/S 22/W 24/W 32/W 11/B 11/B
LVM 043 028/045 028/043 031/047 027/042 025/046 029/051
3/O 33/S 32/W 35/W 32/W 21/B 12/W
HDN 032 021/042 025/041 027/042 025/038 023/049 030/052
5/S 42/S 22/W 23/W 22/W 11/B 01/B
MLS 019 011/028 019/036 022/037 018/030 016/043 030/047
4/S 43/S 22/W 33/W 22/J 11/B 11/B
4BQ 034 017/037 020/039 025/042 022/034 020/046 031/053
5/S 32/S 22/W 22/W 32/J 11/B 01/B
BHK 020 007/023 015/034 020/033 015/029 013/039 027/045
4/S 33/S 22/W 23/W 32/J 11/B 01/B
SHR 043 024/042 023/045 027/048 025/042 022/050 029/055
4/S 22/S 21/B 22/W 43/W 11/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1021 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFF OF THE COAST. A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM MON...MID MORNING UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. ADJUSTED POPS WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS.
MODELS ARE INDICATING PRECIP STARTING OUR WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
APPROX 16Z...SO THEREFORE DECREASED POPS ALONG HWY 64 AND EAST OF
HWY 17 TO SLIGHTLY CHANCE.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE ARTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHING
ACROSS GOLDSBORO TO CEDAR ISLAND. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
THE AREA OF LOW PRES PUSHING OFF CAPE FEAR THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DAMPENING SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
AROUND 09Z...ALONG THE HIGHWAY 70 CORRIDOR AROUND 15Z AND PUSHING
SOUTH OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
18Z MON-00Z TUE AND EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL DURING THIS
TIME...EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH COULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. INITIALLY PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN...BUT STRONG CAA ADVECTION WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING A WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP FROM N TO
S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH A 3-6C WARM NOSE PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SLEET
ALONG WITH WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS THE SFC COLD POOL WILL
QUICKLY DEEPEN TO AROUND 3FT. MODEL/WPC AVERAGE STORM TOTAL LIQUID
QPF IS AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH. THERE WILL BE
LIMITED TIME FROM WHEN THE THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR SLEET TO WHEN
RAPID DRYING COMMENCES IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BRINGING A TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THEREFORE...SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SLEET AND
TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. THERMAL PROFILES FOR
AREAS FROM AROUND RODANTHE SOUTH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS SUGGEST
MAINLY RAIN FOR THESE AREAS...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SLEET
LATE. HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SLEET AND ICE.
STRONG CAA WILL BRING GUSTY NLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
FROPA AND COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND PARTS OF DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY AND
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PAMLICO
SOUND BUT WITH THE SHORT DURATION ONLY AROUND 6-9 HRS NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH MORE THAN 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH IS WHAT IS
INDICATED ON THE CERA WEBSITE.
TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH RAPID COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS CURRENTLY AROUND 48-58 ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL THROUGH THE 40S AND
INTO THE 30S AFTER FROPA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE SPREAD IN
HIGHS TODAY WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS LIKELY WARMING TO AROUND 60
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL REACH
THEIR HIGHS AROUND 50 AROUND DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE
AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING AND MID LEVEL DRYING ENDING BEST PRECIP PROCESSES.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS MOST AREAS BUT ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
THE 20S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COAST...WITH BLACK ICE
POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADS CONTINUING TO BRING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. ANY
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST AS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS THRU
THE DAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...BY SEVERAL DEGREES...AND
KEEP SKIES RATHER CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER OFFSHORE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...HAVE KEPT A SMALL RISK OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG
AS PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A HIGH
COVERAGE OF RAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH LIKELY GUSTY WINDS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
FOR SATURDAY. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER QUICK
SHOT OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH LIGHT S/SW FLOW. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ALONG THE HIGHWAY 264
CORRIDOR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS RTES THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA IN NLY FLOW. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR
WITH -RA DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 14-17Z...THEN LOWER
TO IFR BETWEEN 19-23Z AS PRECIP RATES INCREASE. SFC TEMPS QUICKLY
FALL TO BELOW FREEZING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHILE TEMPS ALOFT
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
EVENING WITH DRYING ALOFT. STRONG NLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20-30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS THAN OPTIMAL
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH REDUCED CEILINGS AND VSBYS
LIKELY FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. THE INITIAL BAND OF
RAIN WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THRU WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONGER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
BE LIKELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRIER AIR AND MORE VFR CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...CURRENT MARINE IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE ARTIC COLD FRONT ALONG CEDAR ISLAND. NORTH OF
CEDAR ISLAND...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NE 15 TO 20 KTS GUSTING UP TO
27 KTS. SEAS HAVE INCREASED IN OUR NORTHERN MARINE ZONE...5 TO 6 FT. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WINDS REMAIN SW 10-20 KTS.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS...SOUTH OF THE REGION AROUND 2 PM. STRONG CAA IN NLY FLOW
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS AROUND
35-40 KT.
USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS NWPS AND WAVEWATCH FOR SEAS...WEIGHING
HIGHER TOWARD NWPS. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT
WITH CAA SURGE...LIKELY PEAKING AT 10-12 FT NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY AS A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONG SMALL CRAFT AND
POTENTIAL GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...SEAS WILL
BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 8 TO 9 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS BY SATURDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-103.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NCZ090>095-098.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ135-152-154-156-158.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ130-150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/BM
SHORT TERM...SK/BM
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK/BM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
949 AM PST MON MAR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATING AGAIN AS A BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING INTO LASSEN COUNTY
THIS MORNING. RADAR/MODELS SHOW IT WELL WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. GFS/HRRR MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS BAND TODAY AND RADAR/OBS TRENDS ARE DEFINITELY ALONG
THESE WETTER SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE INCREASED POPS/QPF FOR
LASSEN/PLUMAS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TENTH TO 1/4 INCH OF
RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH, NEAR 7000 FEET AROUND TAHOE
AND 6500 FEET FOR LASSEN/PLUMAS. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT
THERE AS WELL.
THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TONIGHT. MORE ON THAT
THIS AFTERNOON. WALLMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
DISCUSSION BELOW STILL MOSTLY VALID, BUT LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR
ANY -SN AROUND KTRK/TVL. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
6500 FEET FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT TONIGHT. CHANCE OF ANY
SNOW THAT WILL BRING IFR CIGS/VIS LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 20 PCT
NOW. WALLMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM PST MON MAR 3 2014/
UPDATE...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PCPN IN NRN CA GETTING CLOSE TO THE CWA THIS
MORNING. WEB CAM AT BOGARD REST AREA IN WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY
INDICATES WET PAVEMENT. THE PCPN IS LIKELY LIGHT ENOUGH RIGHT NOW
TO BE MISSED BY RADAR. IN ANY EVENT PCPN IS MOVING IN AND THIS IS
A BIT FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS OVER THE NW CWA THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH
FOR A WHILE RESULTING IN ONLY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF LASSEN COUNTY JUST EAST OF LASSEN PARK. IT IS LIKELY
THAT POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED A BIT MORE TODAY OVER THE NORTH.
ALSO BUMPED UP QPF A LITTLE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 09 UTC SREF. 20
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM PST MON MAR 3 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
A BAND OF SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING AREAS OF RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MORE RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SIERRA AND
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. LATER THIS WEEK, DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE BAND OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM HAWAII TO THE CENTRAL CA COAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE WEST
COAST. HOWEVER, DESPITE THIS DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, FORCING IS
LIMITED WHICH WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION INTENSITY EAST OF THE
SIERRA CREST AND INTO WESTERN NV THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORED THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW FOR LATER TONIGHT, THE 06Z GFS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SPREAD
MORE AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, WITH
A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD PUSH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM 6500 TO 7000 FEET, BUT GIVEN THE
SUBTROPICAL AND EVEN TROPICAL ORIGIN OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME, THEY
COULD RISE 500-1000 FEET HIGHER THAN THESE PROJECTIONS AT TIMES.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AROUND LAKE LEVEL IN
THE TAHOE BASIN FOR THIS EVENT.
MODEL QPF INDICATES UP TO 0.50 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP
NEAR THE SIERRA CREST WEST OF TAHOE, WHICH WOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE
TO ABOUT 4 INCHES OF WET SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET. A BROAD AREA OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.20 INCH IS ALSO INDICATED DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA. PRECIP CHANCES WERE INCREASED
ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 50 AND I-80 CORRIDORS FOR LATE TONIGHT, BUT
GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS, RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED SOONER IN THESE AREAS.
FOR TUESDAY, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AS FLAT RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPS INCREASING TO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST WESTERN NV VALLEYS.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FURTHER WARMING IS LIKELY AS
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AGAIN WITH ONSET TIME OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AS THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO NORTHEAST
CA DURING THE DAY, WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF ON MEASURABLE PRECIP
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
STRONGER PRECIP SHADOWING EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST, WHILE IN THE
SIERRA THE SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE EVEN HIGHER THAN THE FIRST
PRECIP EVENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT IN WESTERN NV
IS MORE LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. MJD
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WERE TO BUMP
UP POPS THURSDAY MORNING AND ADD POPS FOR SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL
BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE NRN PART OF THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA
BEFORE STALLING AND FURTHER WEAKENING OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE
REGION. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT STAY LESS
THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE QPF OVER FAR NRN AREAS IS BETTER THAN
0.50 INCHES...SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM START FAIRLY HIGH.
THUS...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
FOR NOW WE DO NOT SEE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THIS SYSTEM. OF
COURSE...THIS COULD ALL CHANGE.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FOR FRIDAY THEN SLIDES EAST SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. AFTER WARM TEMPS ON
THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY...THEN TEMPS BUMP
UP AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD BE ANOTHER ONE OF THOSE DAYS
WHERE WINDS GUST INTO THE 40 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY FROM HWY 50
NORTHWARD.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT MOISTURE TAP AND SHOULD HAVE GOOD ENOUGH
DYNAMICS TO SQUEEZE OUT PCPN OVER THE NRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. THE
BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR NOW LOOK TO BE FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD
INTO NE CA. EVEN SO...THIS FAR OUT PCPN AMOUNTS ARE QUITE VARIABLE
WITH ECMWF SHOWING THE BEST AT AROUND 0.35 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA.
ALL THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THE EVENT NEXT WEEKEND
SO RIGHT NOW THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM IN MUCH DEVELOPING WITH
THIS SYSTEM. 20
AVIATION...
PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING INTO THE NRN CA COAST THIS MORNING. AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE NRN
FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE TAHOE BASIN.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH ACROSS
NE CA AND FAR NW NV BY EARLY EVENING WITH MOST MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LONGER.
SNOW LEVELS START FAIRLY HIGH TODAY SO ANY TERMINALS THAT PICK UP
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY DROP TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AROUND THE LAKE
TAHOE BASIN AND PARTS OF PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES THIS EVENING IN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BANDS. THIS WILL DRIVE KTRK AND KTVL TO IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AFTER 4/02 UTC...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE RUNWAYS WILL BE MINIMAL. RIDGE GUSTS SHOULD BE
NO WORSE THAN 50 MPH TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE SIERRA CREST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT
MOST OTHER AREAS SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 20
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
323 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXITING
EASTERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRYING NOTED IN WV LOOPS BEHIND
IT. ISOLATED MAINLY OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY STRUGGLED TO
WARM INTO THE 30S TODAY...AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WANING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THESE AREAS MAY COOL QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
OTHER AREAS HOWEVER WILL SEE WAA WITH LEE TROFFING OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH LOWER 30S FOR PORTIONS OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WITH NAM12 AND RAP SUGGESTING
FOG FROM ROUGHLY KLHX EASTWARD. HOWEVER...ALSO LOOKING AT NEXT
ROUND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
DISTANCE SPEED TOOL PUTS THIS INTO THE AREA BY 03-04Z...AND IF CLOUD
COVER IS THICK ENOUGH...MAY PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/UPPER LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE
CEN/NRN CA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW INTO THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH LEE TROFFING AND POCKETS OF BREEZY WEST WINDS ACROSS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY...EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL AID IN DEEPER
MIXING. SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AFTER
21Z...SPREADING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES LOOK FAIRLY STEEP...SO SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY WET SNOW WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS.
FORTUNATELY THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO LAST FOR LONG WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD PICK UP A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. -KT
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES ON AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH
OF A SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE STATE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE LATEST NAM CONTINUING TO BE THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM AND IS THEREFORE PRINTING OUT MUCH LESS QPF ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALSO TRENDED LESS AMPLIFIED AND A TAD FURTHER
NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...THOUGH ARE STILL
PRINTING OUT MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH BETTER MOISTURE
AND UVV WITH LF QUAD OF ASSOCIATED JET. THE NAMS TRACK RECORD OVER
THE PAST FEW MONTHS HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR...AND WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE PIKES PEAK REGION THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL
LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PALMER DVD WITH PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE PLAINS STARTING AS RAIN BEFORE BECOMING MIXED WITH AND
CHANGING TO SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING AS COLDER AIR BEHIND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN...WILL NEED TO
SEE HOW AMPLIFIED THIS SYSTEM IS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE OR LESS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN MTS AND PLAINS.
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY...THOUGH
STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...WARMER WESTERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE
SOME SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITHIN THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTS WITH WESTERLY GAP FLOWS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...40S AND 50S ACROSS THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS AND MAINLY
30S AT THE PEAKS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTED BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE
AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY....WITH THE ECMWF STILL INDICATING A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS TRACK REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DECENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS AND SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST H7-H5 FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 323 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING LOWER CIGS INTO THE KCOS
AREA ASSOC WITH SHOWERS. FOR NOW...CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1153 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CAROLINA WILL HEAD EAST AND OUT TO SEA LATE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY THEN ITS PRIMARY CENTER SHIFTS TO MAINE BY THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND EAST FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THAT FRONT
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WAS ABLE TO SHAVE ANOTHER LAYER OF WARNING OFF LEAVING MOST OF THE
DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY INTACT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
REGIONAL RADAR IS STILL SHOWING SOME ENHANCED REFLECTIVITIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA BUT THE VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER WILL PREVENT MUCH, IF ANY, OF THIS MOISTURE FROM REACHING
THE SURFACE.
DID ADJUST SNOW TOTALS DOWNWARD A BIT AND EXPECTING OUR MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS TO BE AROUND 8 INCHES IN CENTRAL DELMARVA. THE BEST OMEGA
WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH SEEMS TO BE...AS PER THE RUC TRICKLING
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELMARVA INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THIS
THEN ALL SHIFTS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THE SNOW BEGINS TO WIND DOWN.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH AS THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLES
IN. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT RISE MUCH TODAY...INSTEAD
MOSTLY HOLDING STEADY EARLY THEN FALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL START THE DAY MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...BUT
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS LATE. WIND CHILL READINGS
ABOUT 10 COLDER OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NE PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL HAVE MOVED
OFFSHORE BY EARLY TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLR
SKIES. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE SUB-ZERO OVER THE SRN POCONOS AND NRN NJ AND IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN -10 AND -15
ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN POCONOS AND 0 TO -10
ELSEWHERE. THESE WIND CHILL VALUES ARE JUST SHORT OF WSW (WIND
CHILL) ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE WILL NOT ISSUE AND WSW PRODUCTS FOR
THIS NOW...BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT IT MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON IF
WINDS END UP BEING HIGHER...OR TEMPS FCST BECOMES LOWER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500MB: RELATIVELY INNOCUOUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE VERY
COLD AIRMASS MODIFIES. THEN A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS FOR A TIME LATE
THIS WEEK AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
USA...SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WEEKEND SHORT WAVE MOVING EWD FROM THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES...AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY...15 BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO NORMAL OR A BIT ABOVE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY COOLING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST BASIS...MOSTLY 00Z/3 GFS MOS GUIDANCE TUE-WED NIGHT AND
THEN 0543Z/3 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE THAT WAS MODIFIED USING ECMWF OP
GUIDANCE.
THE DAILIES...
TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY...DRY WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD
COVER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL BRUSH WITH THE SE
USA LOW? QUITE UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE HIGH BECOMES STRONG NEAR MAINE
BY THURSDAY...ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS WITH POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF LIGHT MIXED PCPN.
FRIDAY...FOR NOW LOOKS DRY WITH THE SE USA LOW HEADING SEAWARD.
NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THE COLD FRONT PASSING
THRU THE REGION WHICH WOULD COMPLICATE MATTERS...SO HAVE A LOW CHC
OF PCPN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CONDITIONS WERE CONTINUING TO IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT 1400Z.
KRDG, KABE, KTTN AND KPNE WERE VFR AND THEY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE SNOW SHOULD END WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING INTO THE VFR CATEGORY BY 1600Z AT KPHL, BY 1700Z AT KILG
AND BY 1800Z AT KMIV AND KACY.
A NORTH NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GUST INTO THE LOWER 20S. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH INTO THE 4
TO 8 KNOT RANGE FOR TONIGHT WITH NO GUSTS ANTICIPATED AT THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR OCNL CIGS AOA 10000 FT.
LIGHT WIND.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CONDS IN SPOTTY PCPN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
NIGHT? WIND BECOMING NE G 10-15 KT. CONFIDENCE BELOW AVG.
THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS OR SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. NE WIND. CONFIDENCE BELOW AVG.
FRIDAY...PROBABLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE WITH THE SCA FLAG FOR THE WATERS TODAY ACROSS ALL
WATERS...AND TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE OCEAN WATERS. NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE ATTM. SNOW/RAIN WILL BE ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DEL/SRN NJ/DEL BAY AREAS...LIGHTER
AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY MORNING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS FROM OFF MANASQUAN INLET TO OFF FENWICK ISLAND DUE TO
NORTHERN WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5 FEET.
LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING HAS BEEN DEVELOPED FROM MANY RESOURCES OVER THE
PAST WEEK OR SO.
KABE...THE CURRENT 38 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL
PROBABLY EXTEND TO AT LEAST 45 DAYS (FRIDAY MARCH 7TH) WHICH WOULD
EQUAL THE 4TH LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAY STREAK WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN ALLENTOWN IN 1923.
KABE CONSECUTIVE DAY RANKING
1. 78 DAYS ENDING MARCH 22 1994.
2. 59 DAYS ENDING MARCH 13 1978
3 TIE 49 DAYS ENDING FEB 12 1977 AND FEB 19 1925
4. 45 DAYS ENDING MARCH 4 1936
5. 43 DAYS ENDING FEB 2 1970
RECORD LOWS (POR EQUAL PERIOD OF RECORD)
MARCH 3 MARCH 4
(AT 1159PM?)
ACY 5-2009 3-2009 POR 1874
PHL 10-1886 7-1943 POR 1872
ILG 9-2009/1925 5-1943 POR 1894
ABE 8-1950/1925 3-1943 POR 1922
TTN 5-1868 1-1868 POR 1865
GED 9-2009 6-2009 POR 1948
RDG 9-2009/1980/1925 7-1943 AND 1913 POR 1869
MPO -2 2003 -6-1943 POR 1865
SEASONAL SNOWFALL RANKINGS AS OF 1 AM EST 3/3/14
PHL 59.5 #3 OFFICIAL RECORDS BACK TO 1884
1. 78.7 2009-2010
2. 65.5 1995-1996
3. 59.5 2013-2014
4. 55.4 1898-1899
ABE 66.9 #4 OFFICIAL RECORDS BACK TO 1922
1. 75.4 1993-1994
2. 71.4 1995-1996
3. 67.2 1966-1967
4. 66.9 2013-2014
5. 65.2 1960-1961
ILG 48.4 #4 OFFICIAL RECORDS BACK TO 1894
1. 72.8 2009-2010
2. 49.5 1957-1958
3. 48.8 1906-1907 (MISSING DAYS IN THE DATABASE FOR THIS SEASON)
4. 48.4 2013-2014
5. 46.1 2002-2003
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ012-
015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
406 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
319 PM CST
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOR SNOW CHANCES...NAMELY TUE
NIGHT AND WED...AND THEN TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS IT
GETS CHALLENGING WEIGHING FACTORS SUCH AS CLOUD COVER...INCREASING
MARCH SUN ANGLE...SNOW COVER...AND FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...
A STRONG AND BARELY MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OF 1035MB IS IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA GOING INTO THIS EVE. WHILE HEIGHTS ARE
SLOWLY RISING ALOFT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WITHIN FAST
PACED WNW FLOW IS APPROACHING THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE ON WATER VAPOR IS SEEN ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WITH MID
CLOUD ALREADY INTO SOUTHWEST WI. THE RAP AND NAM SOLUTIONS OF
SIMULATED WATER VAPOR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND HAVE
INCORPORATED THAT APPROACH INTO SKY COVER FORECASTS TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING CLOUDY BY MID-EVE. THIS WILL MAKE IT TRICKY
AS THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS THIS
EVE BUT THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OFFSET THIS SOME. HAVE LEANED THE
MILDER ROUTE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...WITH A LIMITED DROP-OFF
THIS EVE AND THEN TEMPS CLIMBING OVERNIGHT. HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPS
FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHWEST IN WHERE MID CLOUDS
WILL TAKE THEIR LONGEST TO THICKEN.
THE FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL BE PRIMARILY TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO THIS SHORT WAVE...AS IT OFTEN IS
WITH THESE PROGRESSIVE ARE LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS.
THUS AM NOT TOO EXCITED FOR SNOW INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY DEEP ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SO HAVE
LEANED AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST 12Z NAM AND CLOSER TO THE RAP AND
GLOBAL MODELS...WITH POSSIBLY A DUSTING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-88.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES EARLY IN NORTHEAST
IL...THE DAYTIME TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A GAP BETWEEN WAVES
LIKELY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE. WITH A MUCH WARMER STARTING
POINT THAN TODAY...HIGHS LOOK TO REBOUND MORE TOWARD WHERE THEY
SHOULD BE GIVEN THE 925MB TEMPS...BUT FAR FROM WHERE THEY SHOULD
BE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE HAS A BETTER PATH TO FAVOR OUR AREA AND ALSO
HAS MORE ELONGATED /LONGER LASTING/ FORCING TIED TO ITS UPPER
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENESIS. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE AREA SEEING SNOW...NAMELY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING...AND IT MAKES GOOD SENSE GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. SO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS. THE SNOW LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT
GIVEN TOP DOWN METHOD AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES...WITH MODEST RATES
AT TIMES WHEREVER THAT WEST-TO-EAST BAROCLINIC GRADIENT OF THE
SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS. HAVE 1-2.5 INCHES FORECAST FOR A LOT OF THE
AREA. HOW MUCH A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY GETS INVOLVED WEDNESDAY WILL BE KEY AS WELL...AS THAT
COULD BOOST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. ALSO OF NOTE
IS POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SETUP ONCE AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT FOR NORTHEAST IL. MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS MORNING
WOULD POINT TOWARD NOT AS GOOD OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THERE ARE
SIGNS OF CONVERGENCE AND BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER RH...AND FOR THAT
HAVE CONTINUED POPS ACROSS CHICAGO INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MTF
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGH/LOW TEMPS...WITH LOW CHANCE POSSIBILITIES FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD.
GENERAL WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN SEVERAL WAVES OF
ENERGY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THESE
FEATURES AND RESULTANT QPF. ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO VARY WITH
THE STRENGTH OF A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AND THEN IS A TAD MORE BULLISH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...WHATEVER DEVELOPS SHOULD BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE
AND QUICKLY EXIT...AND WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. PATTERN TRIES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK WHILE SHOWING SIGNS OF SLIGHT WARMING...AS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE LARGE
VORT MAX SHIFTS EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. TAIL END OF THIS
ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AS WINDS
BACK AND WAA OCCURS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WARMER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW THEN POSSIBLE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT MOVE OVER THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH...THIS WARMING WILL BE BRIEF AS COLDER AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS...MAINLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHT LAKE MICHIGAN INFLUENCE.
* CHANCE OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME TOWARD MORNING.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ONLY ANTICIPATE
THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHILE MVFR CEILINGS ALSO PERSIST. THEN AS SOON AS THIS
DISSIPATES...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOWERING TRENDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE SNOW CHANCES ALSO INCREASE. WENT A TAD
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SNOW AND VIS TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS CONDITIONS COULD POSSIBLY BE DUE TO REMAINING
UNCERTAINTY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POSSIBLE HEAVIER SNOW AND LOWER
VIS FOR TIME LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ/RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY AND A
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
227 PM CST
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS ALL OF LAKE MI THROUGH
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND HELP TO BRING A TRAILING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO...HOWEVER A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE WINDS A TAD TO 10 TO 20 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. FURTHER SOUTH THE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH
TUESDAY EVENING OF THE LAKE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING BACK
ACROSS THE LAKE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATED WITH A GENERAL TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY SOUTH
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
AID IN KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 20 KT.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
320 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
319 PM CST
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOR SNOW CHANCES...NAMELY TUE
NIGHT AND WED...AND THEN TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS IT
GETS CHALLENGING WEIGHING FACTORS SUCH AS CLOUD COVER...INCREASING
MARCH SUN ANGLE...SNOW COVER...AND FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...
A STRONG AND BARELY MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OF 1035MB IS IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA GOING INTO THIS EVE. WHILE HEIGHTS ARE
SLOWLY RISING ALOFT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WITHIN FAST
PACED WNW FLOW IS APPROACHING THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE ON WATER VAPOR IS SEEN ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WITH MID
CLOUD ALREADY INTO SOUTHWEST WI. THE RAP AND NAM SOLUTIONS OF
SIMULATED WATER VAPOR HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND HAVE
INCORPORATED THAT APPROACH INTO SKY COVER FORECASTS TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING CLOUDY BY MID-EVE. THIS WILL MAKE IT TRICKY
AS THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS THIS
EVE BUT THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OFFSET THIS SOME. HAVE LEANED THE
MILDER ROUTE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...WITH A LIMITED DROP-OFF
THIS EVE AND THEN TEMPS CLIMBING OVERNIGHT. HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPS
FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHWEST IN WHERE MID CLOUDS
WILL TAKE THEIR LONGEST TO THICKEN.
THE FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL BE PRIMARILY TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO THIS SHORT WAVE...AS IT OFTEN IS
WITH THESE PROGRESSIVE ARE LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS.
THUS AM NOT TOO EXCITED FOR SNOW INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY DEEP ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SO HAVE
LEANED AWAY FROM THE MORE ROBUST 12Z NAM AND CLOSER TO THE RAP AND
GLOBAL MODELS...WITH POSSIBLY A DUSTING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-88.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES EARLY IN NORTHEAST
IL...THE DAYTIME TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A GAP BETWEEN WAVES
LIKELY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE. WITH A MUCH WARMER STARTING
POINT THAN TODAY...HIGHS LOOK TO REBOUND MORE TOWARD WHERE THEY
SHOULD BE GIVEN THE 925MB TEMPS...BUT FAR FROM WHERE THEY SHOULD
BE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE HAS A BETTER PATH TO FAVOR OUR AREA AND ALSO
HAS MORE ELONGATED /LONGER LASTING/ FORCING TIED TO ITS UPPER
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND FRONTOGENESIS. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE AREA SEEING SNOW...NAMELY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING...AND IT MAKES GOOD SENSE GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. SO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS. THE SNOW LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT
GIVEN TOP DOWN METHOD AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES...WITH MODEST RATES
AT TIMES WHEREVER THAT WEST-TO-EAST BAROCLINIC GRADIENT OF THE
SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS. HAVE 1-2.5 INCHES FORECAST FOR A LOT OF THE
AREA. HOW MUCH A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY GETS INVOLVED WEDNESDAY WILL BE KEY AS WELL...AS THAT
COULD BOOST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. ALSO OF NOTE
IS POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SETUP ONCE AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT FOR NORTHEAST IL. MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS MORNING
WOULD POINT TOWARD NOT AS GOOD OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THERE ARE
SIGNS OF CONVERGENCE AND BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER RH...AND FOR THAT
HAVE CONTINUED POPS ACROSS CHICAGO INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MTF
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGH/LOW TEMPS...WITH LOW CHANCE POSSIBILITIES FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD.
GENERAL WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN SEVERAL WAVES OF
ENERGY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THESE
FEATURES AND RESULTANT QPF. ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO VARY WITH
THE STRENGTH OF A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AND THEN IS A TAD MORE BULLISH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...WHATEVER DEVELOPS SHOULD BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE
AND QUICKLY EXIT...AND WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. PATTERN TRIES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK WHILE SHOWING SIGNS OF SLIGHT WARMING...AS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE LARGE
VORT MAX SHIFTS EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. TAIL END OF THIS
ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AS WINDS
BACK AND WAA OCCURS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WARMER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW THEN POSSIBLE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT MOVE OVER THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH...THIS WARMING WILL BE BRIEF AS COLDER AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* LIGHT EASTERLY WIND.
* SNOW CHANCES INCREASING TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ONLY ANTICIPATE
THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHILE MVFR CEILINGS ALSO PERSIST. THEN AS SOON AS THIS
DISSIPATES...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOWERING TRENDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE SNOW CHANCES ALSO INCREASE. WENT A TAD
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS SNOW AND VIS TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS CONDITIONS COULD POSSIBLY BE DUE TO REMAINING
UNCERTAINTY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POSSIBLE HEAVIER SNOW AND LOWER
VIS FOR TIME LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR/IFR...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY AND A
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
227 PM CST
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS ALL OF LAKE MI THROUGH
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND HELP TO BRING A TRAILING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
ONTARIO...HOWEVER A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE WINDS A TAD TO 10 TO 20 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. FURTHER SOUTH THE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH
TUESDAY EVENING OF THE LAKE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING BACK
ACROSS THE LAKE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATED WITH A GENERAL TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY SOUTH
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
AID IN KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 20 KT.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
238 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS WEEK. LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TO
BEGIN THE WEEK IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH A ZONAL TO SUBTLE LONGWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE
EAST...PLACING OUR REGION IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. BELOW THIS...WILL SEE WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST
TOMORROW. LATE TOMORROW A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
TODAY...MORNING BEGAN QUITE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH
AT A FEW SITES. CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY DISSIPATE. MODEL
OUTPUT FROM GFS AND NAM ESPECIALLY GENERALLY NOT USEFUL FOR NEAR
SURFACE PARAMETERS DUE TO SNOW DEPTH BEING INITIALIZED MUCH TOO
DEEP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. RAP DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM THIS...SO LEANED TOWARDS RAP/ECMWF FOR
TEMPS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHERE THERE IS SNOW AND SOME CLOUD COVER
ACROSS GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES TEMPS HAVE BEEN MUCH
COLDER...BUT ELSEWHERE A PLEASANT AND WARMER DAY AFTER A BITTER
COLD WEEKEND.
TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND 850MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO RISE WILL
MAKE FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH...LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN A FEW SPOTS.
HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN PARTS OF
ADJACENT COLORADO/KANSAS COUNTIES GENERALLY BASED OFF OF THE RAP
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TRENDS. THOUGH BELIEVE SOME OF THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN SREF/NAM ARE DUE TO SNOW FIELD...WITH RAP ALSO
HINTING AT A GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH AT
LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. MUCH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WINDS...AND IF
WINDS REMAIN UP AROUND 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT MIGHT NOT SEE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WHATSOEVER.
WEDNESDAY...SUNNY AND WARM FOR THE MOST PART. HIGHS APPROACHING 60
IN MOST SPOTS AS 850MB TEMPS REACH AROUND 10C...WITH ECMWF AND GEM
GOING EVEN WARMER. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BECOMING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING...QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING. QUICKER END OF GUIDANCE ACTUALLY BRINGS FRONT IN A
LITTLE EARLIER (POSSIBLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON)...THOUGH THIS WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THESE PERIODS. CAA IS
FAIRLY WEAK BEHIND THIS FRONT AND BEST COOLING MODELS ARE SHOWING
IS WITH PRECIP BAND (LIKELY DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES). CURRENT
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
(AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT) MOVING OVER OUR CWA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WED MORNING. MODEL QPF FIELDS GENERALLY MATCH ON TIMING ON AREA OF
PRECIP MOVING OVER OUR CWA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO I TRENDED POPS
UP DURING THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD...AND QUICKLY ENDED POPS DURING
THE WED MORNING PERIOD.
REGARDING PRECIP TYPE...VERY LITTLE E-SE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO IM NOT SEEING A LOT
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. A FEW SOUNDINGS TRY
TO SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION IN OUR SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER WITH VERY
BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE NW FLOW OVERTAKES REGION OR MAIN AREA OF
PRECIP MOVES IN IM NOT SEEING THIS BEING WORTH A MENTION. WHILE
INITIALLY THERE IS A WARM LAYER...SATURATION ABOVE THIS LAYER WILL
OCCUR WHEN MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVES IN AND TEMPERATURE (AND BY THAT
POINT WEAK CAA/EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES HAVE REMOVED THIS WARM LAYER
FROM THE EQUATION)...SO SLEET IS UNLIKELY. PROFILES GENERALLY SHOW
CLEAN RAIN-SNOW TRANSITION WITH MINIMAL CAA IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SO I WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED FZDZ/FZRA AND LEFT TYPE AS
RAIN/SNOW.
DUE TO RELIANCE ON EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES FOR RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY. CURRENT GUIDANCE AND FORECAST TIMING GENERALLY
SHOWS SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE (FAIRLY WET
AND SLUSHY).
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION
AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT ALLOWING FOR QUICK RETURN OF
MILD TEMPS/DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM UP CONSIDERABLY
THURSDAY WITH MEX/ECE SHOWING HIGHS AROUND 70F. H85 TEMPS
GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MID 60S-LOW 70S (DEPENDING ON WHICH END OF
GUIDANCE YOU CHOOSE) USING STANDARD BIAS. I TRENDED TEMPS UP
ACROSS THE CWA TO UPPER 60S THURSDAY...AND COULD STILL BE A LITTLE
LOW COMPARED TO WARMER END OF GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...NEXT QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS BACK TO OUR CWA. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN
EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON OVERALL TRENDS/CONSENSUS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WHILE THERE IS RUN-RUN MODEL SPREAD DURING THESE
PERIODS...GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGING (OF SOME FLAVOR)
AND DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MST MON MAR 3 2014
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAG PERIOD AT GLD AND
MCK. WINDS ARE A BIT GUSTY EARLY TODAY GUSTING TO OVER 30KTS AT
GLD...BUT AM EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
DISSIPATE LATE TODAY. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT MCK
TONIGHT LEADING TO MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. BELIEVE MOISTURE
FIELD OF NAM/SREF TO BE OVERDOING THE NEAR-SURFACE
CONDITIONS...BUT IF WINDS CAN GO CALM FOR A FEW HOURS BELIEVE AT
LEAST SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
IFR VIS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
156 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2014
...Updated for the long term forecast...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
Tonight:
Some mid to high level clouds will continue tonight in association with
a jet streak passing off to the southeast. Southerly winds will become
SSW/SW after midnight. The downslope winds should lead to higher minimums
for much of the region, except over deeper snowpack. Calling for mid to
upper 20sF by Elkhart to upper single digits to lower teens across the
deeper snowpack (generally along and east of Highway 183).
Tomorrow:
The HRRR is suggesting fog formation tonight, but this is different
than what the WRF is suggesting. Think the model fields might be too
heavily influenced by the model snowpack. If fog does develop, it will
be patchy.
Lee troughing will continue tomorrow. Downslope, compressional warming
is expected ahead of a frontal boundary. This front will traverse the
region after my short-term period ends. A fairly impressive gradient
of maximum temperatures is expected across the forecast area of responsibility.
Low 60sF will be possible across the western zones, where the warmest
850 hPa temperatures are expected along with the strongest downslope
wind component. Have undercut temperature guidance farther east across
the heavier snowpack areas, where low 40sF are possible for highs. Any
precipitation will remain outside of my period.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
This extended period will be dominated by a two different upper
level troughs passing through, one on Tuesday night and Wednesday,
and the other one on Friday night and Saturday.
In the nearer term, Tuesday night should be cold with lows in the
mid 20s in the Hays and LaCrosse areas, ranging to the mid 30s down
down in our southwest corner near Elkhart. I think the front will
be in the I-70 corridor about midnight, with some overrunning
precipitation beginning by midnight, in the form of snow and/or
sleet. Forecast sounding from nearly every model shows a warm
tongue aloft, for the early part of the event. The front will
spill southward through Southwestern and South Central Kansas on
Wednesday, and most of the rest of our forecast area will see some
snow/sleet early Wednesday, changing over to rain by late morning.
The dynamics will be stronger to our north, so 20 to 30 percent
precipitation chances will suffice for us. Only light QPF amounts
are expected, generally less than 0.03 inch liquid, and perhaps up
to a half inch of snow in any particular location. Wednesday`s
high temperatures Will range from 39F in Hays to 52F in Johnson
City.
Wednesday night through Friday will see some warming, with the
coolest highs across any accumulation of snow. Wednesday night
minimum temperatures will still be similar to mins Wednesday
morning, in the mid 20s to lower 30s. There will be a quick warm
up Thursday with southwest surface winds. Maximum temperatures in
the southwest corner near Ulysses and Elkhart will rise into the
lower to middle 60s, while the east sections from Ellis to
Comanche Counties will only top out in the lower to middle 50s.
There will be some advance clouds moving in Friday, which will knock
down maximum temperatures Friday into the upper 40s north of I-70,
ranging to near 60F down south along the Oklahoma border. As an
upper wave moves into the plains Friday night, a cold front will
dive southeast from Wyoming. This will bring another round of
snow or rain to Southwest Kansas Friday Night and Saturday. I did
lower some of the 50% Pops from the AllBlend model to 30 and 40
percent, to better match our neighbor`s grids. Friday night will
see a cool down in low temperatures, dropping to the mid 20s to
lower 30s. Saturday should be significantly colder, with the
clouds and precipitation around. Highs should only reach the
middle 40s to near 50F on Saturday.
Sunday looks mostly sunny and considerably warmer, with max temps in
the upper 50s near Larned and the middle 60s in the Syracuse area.
Sunday will be sunny and even warmer with max temps in the middle
60s across the forecast area. Minimum temperatures both Saturday
and Sunday mornings will average in the 25F to 30F degree range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014
VFR conditions through TAF pd. Some mid to high level clouds, but no
major flight category reductions. Southerly winds 8-12 kt today becoming
southwesterly 6-11 kt overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 11 45 27 44 / 0 0 10 30
GCK 13 52 28 46 / 0 0 10 30
EHA 23 60 33 52 / 0 0 10 20
LBL 15 52 30 50 / 0 0 10 20
HYS 10 45 25 39 / 0 0 20 40
P28 11 40 25 42 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
142 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2014
...Update to short term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
Tonight:
Some mid to high level clouds will continue tonight in association with
a jet streak passing off to the southeast. Southerly winds will become
SSW/SW after midnight. The downslope winds should lead to higher minimums
for much of the region, except over deeper snowpack. Calling for mid to
upper 20sF by Elkhart to upper single digits to lower teens across the
deeper snowpack (generally along and east of Highway 183).
Tomorrow:
The HRRR is suggesting fog formation tonight, but this is different
than what the WRF is suggesting. Think the model fields might be too
heavily influenced by the model snowpack. If fog does develop, it will
be patchy.
Lee troughing will continue tomorrow. Downslope, compressional warming
is expected ahead of a frontal boundary. This front will traverse the
region after my short-term period ends. A fairly impressive gradient
of maximum temperatures is expected across the forecast area of responsibility.
Low 60sF will be possible across the western zones, where the warmest
850 hPa temperatures are expected along with the strongest downslope
wind component. Have undercut temperature guidance farther east across
the heavier snowpack areas, where low 40sF are possible for highs. Any
precipitation will remain outside of my period.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014
A trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary along the
lee of the Rockies on Tuesday as a cold front moves south into
Nebraska by late day. Ahead of this cold front an area of warm
925mb to 850mb air is forecast to cross western Kansas during the
afternoon. Using the 00z Wednesday 850mb temperatures as a guide
for highs the potential exists for temperatures climb back into
the 60s given full sun. At this time however will only trend
towards these warmer temperatures only across west central and
portions of far western Kansas given the potential for clouds
along with some linger snow cover. Confidence is not high on where
the snow cover will be on Tuesday but using the Dual Pol Storm
Total Accum estimates as a guide will favor keeping some lingering
snow cover southeast of a Liberal to Dodge City to Larned line. In
this area trended afternoon temperatures towards the cooler MET
guidance which suggested highs only in the lower 40s.
Both the NAM and GFS agree in moving a cold front across
southwest Kansas Tuesday night with increasing low and mid level
moisture developing in the wake of this cold front late Tuesday
night/early Wednesday. Despite the agreement in frontal passage
the NAM and GFS disagree on the depth and how quickly the lower
levels saturate. NAM was more aggressive and as a result attempts
to generate some light precipitation between 06z and 12z across
most of southwest Kansas as an upper level trough crosses the
Central High Plains. GFS was not as aggressive and therefore kept
the precipitation chances in west central and portions of north
central Kansas where the better mid level moisture and forcing
will be present prior to 12z Wednesday. Given the uncertainty on
how the lower levels will saturate late Tuesday night will
currently favor the GFS and keep small precipitation chances
mainly across west central and north central Kansas based on where
the better mid level forcing will be located ahead of this mid
week upper level system.
On Wednesday the upper level trough will cross western Kansas
early in the day with subsidence and drying forecast during the
afternoon behind this upper level system. Based on the 00z NAM and
00z GFS timing of this upper level trough will keep a chance of
precipitation going early Wednesday but taper this precipitation
off from west to east, mainly after 18z. Given the net 24hour
change in 950 to 850mb temperatures of roughly 3 to 7C the
previous forecast still look on track with Highs on Wednesday
mainly in the 40s. Lower 50s still look likely across portions of
southwest Kansas. May even be a little warmer than this across far
western Kansas if skies clear sooner.
CRExtendFcst_Init still looks on track with Highs rebounding back
into the upper 50s to mid 60s on Thursday given that 850mb
temperatures warm from the single digits into the teens. Another
cold front crossing into western Kansas on Friday will put an end
to this warming trend with cooler temperatures returning by
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014
VFR conditions through TAF pd. Some mid to high level clouds, but no
major flight category reductions. Southerly winds 8-12 kt today becoming
southwesterly 6-11 kt overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 11 45 27 44 / 0 0 10 30
GCK 13 52 28 46 / 0 0 10 30
EHA 23 60 33 52 / 0 0 10 20
LBL 15 52 30 50 / 0 0 10 20
HYS 10 45 25 39 / 0 0 20 40
P28 11 40 25 42 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1234 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014
A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS THIS WEEK. LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TO
BEGIN THE WEEK IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH A ZONAL TO SUBTLE LONGWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE
EAST...PLACING OUR REGION IN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. BELOW THIS...WILL SEE WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST
TOMORROW. LATE TOMORROW A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
TODAY...MORNING BEGAN QUITE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH
AT A FEW SITES. CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY DISSIPATE. MODEL
OUTPUT FROM GFS AND NAM ESPECIALLY GENERALLY NOT USEFUL FOR NEAR-SURFACE
PARAMETERS DUE TO SNOW DEPTH BEING INITIALIZED MUCH TOO DEEP ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. RAP DOES NOT SEEM TO BE
SUFFERING FROM THIS...SO LEANED TOWARDS RAP/ECMWF FOR TEMPS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. WHERE THERE IS SNOW AND SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS
GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES TEMPS HAVE BEEN MUCH COLDER...BUT
ELSEWHERE A PLEASANT AND WARMER DAY AFTER A BITTER COLD WEEKEND.
TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND 850MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO RISE WILL
MAKE FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH...LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN A FEW SPOTS.
HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN PARTS OF
ADJACENT COLORADO/KANSAS COUNTIES GENERALLY BASED OFF OF THE RAP
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TRENDS. THOUGH BELIEVE SOME OF THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN SREF/NAM ARE DUE TO SNOW FIELD...WITH RAP ALSO
HINTING AT A GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH AT
LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG. MUCH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WINDS...AND IF
WINDS REMAIN UP AROUND 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT MIGHT NOT SEE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WHATSOEVER.
WEDNESDAY...SUNNY AND WARM FOR THE MOST PART. HIGHS APPROACHING 60
IN MOST SPOTS AS 850MB TEMPS REACH AROUND 10C...WITH ECMWF AND GEM
GOING EVEN WARMER. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BECOMING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MST MON MAR 3 2014
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY. FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE LOW WAVE TROUGH
DEEPENING TO THE WEST...PLACING LARGE SCALE LIFT EAST OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA. AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT
SOUTH...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE LIFT TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING THE PRECIP. TO AN END. THIS PATTERN LOOKS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP. FOR THE AREA THAN WHEN MODELS HAD THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
USHERING IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. THE SEASONAL AIR
MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN A WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MST MON MAR 3 2014
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAG PERIOD AT GLD AND
MCK. WINDS ARE A BIT GUSTY EARLY TODAY GUSTING TO OVER 30KTS AT
GLD...BUT AM EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
DISSIPATE LATE TODAY. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT MCK
TONIGHT LEADING TO MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. BELIEVE MOISTURE
FIELD OF NAM/SREF TO BE OVERDOING THE NEAR-SURFACE
CONDITIONS...BUT IF WINDS CAN GO CALM FOR A FEW HOURS BELIEVE AT
LEAST SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
IFR VIS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
209 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
TEMPS AND POPS WERE FINE TUNED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. THE
WINTER STORM IS NOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AND ATTM...IT
APPEARS THAT WE WILL CANCEL AND OR ALLOW THE REMAINING COUNTIES TO
EXPIRE AT 4 PM AND THEN ISSUE AN SPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS TO HIGHLIGHT
CONTINUED SLICK ROADS TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1215 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
ONE UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS MORNING TO FINE TUNE TEMPS AND POPS
SO AS TO BETTER TIME THE DEFORMATION BAND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.
SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND HAVE BEEN ABOUT ONE INCH PER HOUR WITH UP
TO 2 INCHES HAVING FALLEN IN THIS BAND IN SOME AREAS NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ATTM...THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LOOK ON
TARGET TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING AS THE SNOW HAS ALREADY
ENDED...BUT DIFFICULT TRAVEL REMAINS...ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY AND
UNTREATED ROADS. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AS SEGMENTS ARE DROPPED
FROM THE WINTER STORM WARNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE TEXT PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH IN
THE SOUTH AND ALSO DROP THE HEAVY SNOW AND THUNDER MENTION. ALSO FINE
TUNED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
IN ADDITION...THE ZONES AND HWO WERE UPDATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PCPN IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA. WHEN THIS EXITS WE WILL LOSE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
PCPN AND THREAT OF THUNDER. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL THE DEFORMATION ZONES PASSES THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND 06Z NAM12. ALSO
FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS. A MORE COMPLETE UPDATE TO THE TEXT PRODUCTS WILL TAKE PLACE
WITH THE EXPIRATION OF THE FLOOD WATCH AT 7 AM.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BE BREAKING DOWN
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT DRY AIR WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE AND THEIR WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...SO THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNEVENTFUL.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SE TOWARD
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE NOW LESS INCLINED TO CLOSE
OFF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT THEY ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH IT. SURFACE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL INDICATED OVER
THE GULF...BUT IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST THAN IN RUNS OF RECENT DAYS. AS A
RESULT...IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIRECT EFFECTS
FROM THE CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS IT PASSES.
A TRANSITORY RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITHOUT ANY COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.
ANOTHER LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO HEAD IN FROM THE NW DURING THE WEEKEND. GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE ON THE BIG PICTURE FOR THIS...BUT SHOW SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES. TAKING BOTH INTO CONSIDERATION...THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EVEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A BUFFER
OF LOWER POPS ON BOTH SIDES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LAST ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MOVES THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY. FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE ARE NOW ALL SNOW. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS MID AFTERNOON. VFR
WX SHOULD TAKE OVER THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE...BEFORE SETTLING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AND BECOME MORE
EASTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-104-106>109-111-112-114.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ079-080-
083>088-110-113-115>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF/JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...DUSTY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1225 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
ONE UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS MORNING TO FINE TUNE TEMPS AND POPS
SO AS TO BETTER TIME THE DEFORMATION BAND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.
SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND HAVE BEEN ABOUT ONE INCH PER HOUR WITH UP
TO 2 INCHES HAVING FALLEN IN THIS BAND IN SOME AREAS NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ATTM...THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LOOK ON
TARGET TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING AS THE SNOW HAS ALREADY
ENDED...BUT DIFFICULT TRAVEL REMAINS...ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY AND
UNTREATED ROADS. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AS SEGMENTS ARE DROPPED
FROM THE WINTER STORM WARNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE TEXT PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH IN
THE SOUTH AND ALSO DROP THE HEAVY SNOW AND THUNDER MENTION. ALSO FINE
TUNED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
IN ADDITION...THE ZONES AND HWO WERE UPDATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PCPN IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA. WHEN THIS EXITS WE WILL LOSE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
PCPN AND THREAT OF THUNDER. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL THE DEFORMATION ZONES PASSES THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND 06Z NAM12. ALSO
FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS. A MORE COMPLETE UPDATE TO THE TEXT PRODUCTS WILL TAKE PLACE
WITH THE EXPIRATION OF THE FLOOD WATCH AT 7 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
...THE REST OF THE NIGHT THROUGH TODAY...
...MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING...
07Z SFC ANALYSIS...AND RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
LOW PRESSURE AREA ROLLING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS IS RUNNING ALONG AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES TO
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE THIN REMAINDER OF THE STATE NOT IN THE DEEP
FREEZE. THE WARM NOSE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...PER OBS AND
THE TRANSITION SHOWING UP IN THE DOPPLER CC LOOP. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN DEPOSITING GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE BEFORE THE SLEET STARTS TO REALLY
ACCUMULATE FOR MOST PLACES. REPORTS OF HALF INCH SLEET TOTALS ARE
STARTING TO COME IN FROM PLACES NORTH AND WEST OF JKL. THE OFFICE
IS PUSHING THAT TOTAL...AS WELL...THOUGH SOME SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN
AT TIMES. THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...AND THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IT HAS LAID ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...IS EVIDENCED BY THE MID TEENS
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY...LOW 20S ALONG THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...AND MID 30S BARELY HOLDING ON OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DEEPER INTO
THE CWA WITH EVEN SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR 20 KTS SHOWING UP IN THE OBS
CLOSER TO THE BLUEGRASS. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONCERN FOR POWER
OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. ON RADAR...AN EXTENDED MASS OF PCPN REMAINS
TO TRANSITION THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHERE IT WILL BE CONVERTED TO
MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW...THOUGH FOR A TIME HEAVY RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. NO CG RETURNS HAVE
SHOWN UP WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN AWHILE...BUT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME IN CLOUD OR CLOUD TO CLOUD BOLTS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVELS AND THE
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SFC SYSTEM GIVING US A LION OF A START
TO MARCH. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND
WILL ROLL NEARLY DUE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EVENING.
THE MODEL AGREEMENT ALOFT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO AGREEMENT AT THE SFC
FOR A COMPLEX ONGOING SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. SO...HAVE INSTEAD LEANED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND THE NAM12 COMBINED WITH
TRENDS AND PCPN PROGRESSION TO GUIDE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
THE HEAVY PCPN...GRADUALLY GOING TO SNOW AND FALLING AT OVER AN INCH
AN HOUR...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BACK
EDGE AND A TAPER REACHING FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY 7 AM AND
SWEEPING EAST BY 10 AM. HAVE USED THIS FOR TIMING THE WORST OF THE
WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS
FOR THIS HEAVY PCPN BAND. THE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
SLEET...THOUGH...SO IN A SENSE WE ARE DODGING A BULLET...BUT THE ROADS
WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM...AS A RESULT. THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS THE LAST OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE...BASICALLY WHAT IS GOING ON
NEAR THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CURRENTLY...PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF AN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE
DRAWN UP THE GRIDS WITH THESE TWO PCPN AREAS AND THEIR PROGRESS IN
MIND. ACCORDINGLY...WILL HOLD ON TO THE WARNINGS AS THEY ARE WITH
SOME CLEAN UP POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z. WILL ALSO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH AS
HEAVY PCPN IN A SEMI-LIQUID FORM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THAT
AREA. EXPECT A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH...BUT JUST AS MUCH SLEET...1/2 TO 1 INCH...THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL BE DELINEATED FURTHER IN THE FORTHCOMING WSW
UPDATES.
USED THE CONSSHORT FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS...BC
VERSION FOR THE LATTER TWO...THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. ALSO DERIVED THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS FROM THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
JUST ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH THE TAPER OF THE SNOW
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...A
STRONG MASS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CONUS. THIS SET UP SHOULD KEEP KY DRY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS WELL AS USHER IN DRY CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THIS PUSH OF COLDER...DRIER
CANADIAN AIR...EXPECT LOWS TO DROP DOWN WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE MORE
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...TO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT JUST PASSED THROUGH...WINDS WERE GUSTY
IN MANY LOCATIONS. LUCKILY...EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIE DOWN BY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE GOOD AND BAD IMPLICATIONS. ON THE DOWN
SIDE...LIGHTER WINDS...IN ADDITION TO CLEAR SKIES AND A COOLER
AIR MASS OVERHEAD...WILL PROVIDE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...HENCE
THE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. ON THE UP SIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DROP THIS LOW...ANY AMOUNT OF WIND WILL ONLY AID TO THE
WIND CHILL FACTOR...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER THAN THEY
REALLY ARE. THAT BEING SAID...WINDS WILL NOT BE NIL. WE CAN EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS IN THE 3 TO 7 KT RANGE...WHICH WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO
DROP WIND CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTH.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT
HIGHER SUN ANGLES FOR MARCH...AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WITH THIS DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO
BOUNCE BACK TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BE BREAKING DOWN
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT DRY AIR WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE AND THEIR WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...SO THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNEVENTFUL.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SE TOWARD
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE NOW LESS INCLINED TO CLOSE
OFF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT THEY ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH IT. SURFACE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL INDICATED OVER
THE GULF...BUT IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST THAN IN RUNS OF RECENT DAYS. AS A
RESULT...IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIRECT EFFECTS
FROM THE CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS IT PASSES.
A TRANSITORY RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITHOUT ANY COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.
ANOTHER LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO HEAD IN FROM THE NW DURING THE WEEKEND. GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE ON THE BIG PICTURE FOR THIS...BUT SHOW SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES. TAKING BOTH INTO CONSIDERATION...THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EVEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A BUFFER
OF LOWER POPS ON BOTH SIDES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LAST ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MOVES THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY. FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE ARE NOW ALL SNOW. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS MID AFTERNOON. VFR
WX SHOULD TAKE OVER THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE...BEFORE SETTLING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AND BECOME MORE
EASTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-104-106>109-111-112-114.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ079-080-
083>088-110-113-115>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF/JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...DUSTY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1216 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
ONE UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS MORNING TO FINE TUNE TEMPS AND POPS
SO AS TO BETTER TIME THE DEFORMATION BAND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.
SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND HAVE BEEN ABOUT ONE INCH PER HOUR WITH UP
TO 2 INCHES HAVING FALLEN IN THIS BAND IN SOME AREAS NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. ATTM...THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LOOK ON
TARGET TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING AS THE SNOW HAS ALREADY
ENDED...BUT DIFFICULT TRAVEL REMAINS...ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY AND
UNTREATED ROADS. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AS SEGMENTS ARE DROPPED
FROM THE WINTER STORM WARNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE TEXT PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH IN
THE SOUTH AND ALSO DROP THE HEAVY SNOW AND THUNDER MENTION. ALSO FINE
TUNED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
IN ADDITION...THE ZONES AND HWO WERE UPDATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PCPN IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA. WHEN THIS EXITS WE WILL LOSE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
PCPN AND THREAT OF THUNDER. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL THE DEFORMATION ZONES PASSES THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND 06Z NAM12. ALSO
FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS. A MORE COMPLETE UPDATE TO THE TEXT PRODUCTS WILL TAKE PLACE
WITH THE EXPIRATION OF THE FLOOD WATCH AT 7 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
...THE REST OF THE NIGHT THROUGH TODAY...
...MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING...
07Z SFC ANALYSIS...AND RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
LOW PRESSURE AREA ROLLING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS IS RUNNING ALONG AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT CONTINUES TO
SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE THIN REMAINDER OF THE STATE NOT IN THE DEEP
FREEZE. THE WARM NOSE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...PER OBS AND
THE TRANSITION SHOWING UP IN THE DOPPLER CC LOOP. A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN DEPOSITING GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE BEFORE THE SLEET STARTS TO REALLY
ACCUMULATE FOR MOST PLACES. REPORTS OF HALF INCH SLEET TOTALS ARE
STARTING TO COME IN FROM PLACES NORTH AND WEST OF JKL. THE OFFICE
IS PUSHING THAT TOTAL...AS WELL...THOUGH SOME SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN
AT TIMES. THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...AND THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IT HAS LAID ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...IS EVIDENCED BY THE MID TEENS
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY...LOW 20S ALONG THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...AND MID 30S BARELY HOLDING ON OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DEEPER INTO
THE CWA WITH EVEN SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR 20 KTS SHOWING UP IN THE OBS
CLOSER TO THE BLUEGRASS. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONCERN FOR POWER
OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. ON RADAR...AN EXTENDED MASS OF PCPN REMAINS
TO TRANSITION THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WHERE IT WILL BE CONVERTED TO
MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW...THOUGH FOR A TIME HEAVY RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. NO CG RETURNS HAVE
SHOWN UP WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN AWHILE...BUT
WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME IN CLOUD OR CLOUD TO CLOUD BOLTS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVELS AND THE
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SFC SYSTEM GIVING US A LION OF A START
TO MARCH. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND
WILL ROLL NEARLY DUE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EVENING.
THE MODEL AGREEMENT ALOFT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO AGREEMENT AT THE SFC
FOR A COMPLEX ONGOING SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS. SO...HAVE INSTEAD LEANED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND THE NAM12 COMBINED WITH
TRENDS AND PCPN PROGRESSION TO GUIDE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
THE HEAVY PCPN...GRADUALLY GOING TO SNOW AND FALLING AT OVER AN INCH
AN HOUR...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BACK
EDGE AND A TAPER REACHING FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY 7 AM AND
SWEEPING EAST BY 10 AM. HAVE USED THIS FOR TIMING THE WORST OF THE
WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS
FOR THIS HEAVY PCPN BAND. THE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
SLEET...THOUGH...SO IN A SENSE WE ARE DODGING A BULLET...BUT THE ROADS
WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM...AS A RESULT. THE HRRR ALSO
SHOWS THE LAST OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE...BASICALLY WHAT IS GOING ON
NEAR THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CURRENTLY...PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF AN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE
DRAWN UP THE GRIDS WITH THESE TWO PCPN AREAS AND THEIR PROGRESS IN
MIND. ACCORDINGLY...WILL HOLD ON TO THE WARNINGS AS THEY ARE WITH
SOME CLEAN UP POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z. WILL ALSO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH AS
HEAVY PCPN IN A SEMI-LIQUID FORM IS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THAT
AREA. EXPECT A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS
SOUTH...BUT JUST AS MUCH SLEET...1/2 TO 1 INCH...THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL BE DELINEATED FURTHER IN THE FORTHCOMING WSW
UPDATES.
USED THE CONSSHORT FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS...BC
VERSION FOR THE LATTER TWO...THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. ALSO DERIVED THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS FROM THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
JUST ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH THE TAPER OF THE SNOW
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...A
STRONG MASS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CONUS. THIS SET UP SHOULD KEEP KY DRY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS WELL AS USHER IN DRY CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THIS PUSH OF COLDER...DRIER
CANADIAN AIR...EXPECT LOWS TO DROP DOWN WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE MORE
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...TO THE LOW TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT JUST PASSED THROUGH...WINDS WERE GUSTY
IN MANY LOCATIONS. LUCKILY...EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIE DOWN BY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE GOOD AND BAD IMPLICATIONS. ON THE DOWN
SIDE...LIGHTER WINDS...IN ADDITION TO CLEAR SKIES AND A COOLER
AIR MASS OVERHEAD...WILL PROVIDE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...HENCE
THE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. ON THE UP SIDE...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DROP THIS LOW...ANY AMOUNT OF WIND WILL ONLY AID TO THE
WIND CHILL FACTOR...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER THAN THEY
REALLY ARE. THAT BEING SAID...WINDS WILL NOT BE NIL. WE CAN EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS IN THE 3 TO 7 KT RANGE...WHICH WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO
DROP WIND CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTH.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT
HIGHER SUN ANGLES FOR MARCH...AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WITH THIS DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO
BOUNCE BACK TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BE BREAKING DOWN
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT DRY AIR WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE AND THEIR WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...SO THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNEVENTFUL.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SE TOWARD
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE NOW LESS INCLINED TO CLOSE
OFF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT THEY ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH IT. SURFACE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL INDICATED OVER
THE GULF...BUT IT TRACKS FURTHER EAST THAN IN RUNS OF RECENT DAYS. AS A
RESULT...IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIRECT EFFECTS
FROM THE CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING AS IT PASSES.
A TRANSITORY RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITHOUT ANY COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.
ANOTHER LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO HEAD IN FROM THE NW DURING THE WEEKEND. GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE ON THE BIG PICTURE FOR THIS...BUT SHOW SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES. TAKING BOTH INTO CONSIDERATION...THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EVEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A BUFFER
OF LOWER POPS ON BOTH SIDES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MOVES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE STATE ARE STILL EXPERIENCING SOME SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS MID
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR AND IFR
RANGE FOR A BUT LONGER. VFR WX SHOULD TAKE OVER THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE
SETTLING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-104-106>109-111-112-114.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ079-080-
083>088-110-113-115>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF/JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
329 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROF EXTENDING W INTO
WRN CANADA...ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF CANADA INTO THE
NRN CONUS...BUT THE COLD IS MODERATING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLOSER TO -15C TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...REBOUNDING FROM BITTER COLD LOW TEMPS LAST NIGHT.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
OVER THE 280-285K LAYER AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL MN AS NOTED ON
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. THIS SNOW IS FCST TO SPREAD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE PROGGED BY 12Z MODELS TO DIVE SE OVER SRN/CNTRL WI...THE
BEST AND LONGEST SUSTAINED DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WI BORDER COUNTIES AND
ALONG THE BAY OF GREEN BAY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE S (LIKELY) WITH LOWER CHC POPS TO THE NW
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG AVBL PER 280K
SFC (ROUGHLY 730MB) AND 6HRS OR SO OF -SN...EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH NORTH TO PERHAPS 1-2INCHES FAR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS
EXPECTED...TEMPS AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BLO 0F
TONIGHT.
EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC BEST FORCING SLIDE SE OF THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OVER THE ERN
COUNTIES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM SCNTRL CANADA WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION (8H TEMPS DOWN TO -18C) ON
TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY FROM
LOWER TO MID TEENS NORTH TO UPPER TEENS SOUTH UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODIS IMAGERY
OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS INDICATES LAKE SUPERIOR IS NEARLY ICED
OVER...SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL
DON/T EXPECT MUCH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
TUESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK SHORTWAVES...WITH THE
ONE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST AND THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE DAKOTAS. THIS
SECOND WAVE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
TRAJECTORY AS THE TUESDAY MORNING WAVE...BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PULL DRIER AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MICHIGAN AND LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATING IT BEING
SHALLOW...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST AND MAINLY INDICATE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH
INFLUENCE WITH THIS WAVE...ESPECIALLY WITH A MOSTLY FROZEN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN EASTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO VARY ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE
EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING...SHOULD SEE A
QUICK FALL IN TEMPS BEFORE RETURN FLOW TRIES TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
SINCE PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE
EVENING...DID LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BASED OFF THE CONSISTENCY
IN THE MODELS ON HAVING LOWS IN THE -5 TO -10 DEGREE RANGE.
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASUREABLE SNOW IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THERE IS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE THAT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AND ACROSS
THE U.P. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SNOW. WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS...WILL
TREND POPS UP IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND THINK SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY (FROM A HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS) AND
WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH LAKE SUPERIOR PRETTY MUCH
FROZEN OVER. THERE ARE HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY DRY...WOULDN/T
EXPECT MORE THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT)
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA.
AS FOR HIGHS...VALUES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD BUT WARMER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY. 850MB TEMPS
STAY IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO MOST OF THE WEEK AND LIMITS HIGHS FROM
RISING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 20S LATE IN THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. SOME OF THE THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (AROUND 40
PERCENT) DO SHOW TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME FOR
MOST OF THE CWA SINCE FEB 21ST. 12Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS AROUND FREEZING ON MONDAY...SO WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND NEAR COMPLETE ICE
COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
-SN WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT VIS COULD DROP TO IFR FOR A
TIME AT KIWD/KSAW. LOOK FOR SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN THRU 18Z
TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
A SFC TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TUE...WILL RESULT IN
A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER
20KT TONIGHT THRU TUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU WED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES
FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH TROF EXTENDING W INTO WRN CANADA...
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO COVER A VAST AREA OF CANADA INTO THE NRN
CONUS. HOWEVER...THE COLD IS MODERATING AS 00Z RAOBS SHOWED 850MB
TEMPS OF -21C/-17C/-21C AT KINL/KGRB/KAPX RESPECTIVELY...ALL SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. COLD WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS PACIFIC AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD E IN LOW AMPLITUDE
FLOW. SFC TROF THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT BROUGHT A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A LONE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD/-SHSN
BAND EMANATING FROM A PATCH OF OPEN WATER/BKN ICE NEAR ISLE ROYALE
WAS EXTENDING SSE AND COMBINING WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM SOME
OPEN WATER/BKN ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW TO BRING
FLURRIES/-SHSN TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES/MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO -10 TO -25F IN
GENERAL.
TODAY WILL BE A QUIET DAY WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. MODERATING ARCTIC AIR MASS AND SUNSHINE
WORKING ON LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS MAY STILL FAIL TO GET ABOVE 10F OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND THE NE FCST AREA AS WINDS OFF THE FROZEN LAKE LIMIT
MIXING DEPTH. NAM/GEM SHOW A LAKE BREEZE OR MAYBE MORE
APPROPRIATE...ICE BREEZE...DEVELOPING INTO THE MARQUETTE AREA THIS
AFTN. IF SO...TEMPS MAY FALL BACK SEVERAL DEGREES AFTER RISING INTO
THE TEENS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS NOT WELL AGREED UPON YET...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF -SN WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI AT SOME
POINT TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NRN
PORTION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/DEEP LAYER FORCING AS WELL AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO. THUS...POPS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE S
(LIKELY) WITH CHC TO THE N. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG AVBL PER
280K SFC (ROUGHLY 700-725MB) AND 6HRS OR SO OF -SN...EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH N TO PERHAPS 1-2INCHES FAR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS...TEMPS
AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BLO 0F TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODIS IMAGERY
OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS INDICATES LAKE SUPERIOR IS NEARLY ICED
OVER...SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL
DON/T EXPECT MUCH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
TUESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK SHORTWAVES...WITH THE
ONE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST AND THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE DAKOTAS. THIS
SECOND WAVE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
TRAJECTORY AS THE TUESDAY MORNING WAVE...BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PULL DRIER AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND UPPER MICHIGAN AND LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATING IT BEING
SHALLOW...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST AND MAINLY INDICATE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH
INFLUENCE WITH THIS WAVE...ESPECIALLY WITH A MOSTLY FROZEN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN EASTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO VARY ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE
EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING...SHOULD SEE A
QUICK FALL IN TEMPS BEFORE RETURN FLOW TRIES TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
SINCE PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE
EVENING...DID LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BASED OFF THE CONSISTENCY
IN THE MODELS ON HAVING LOWS IN THE -5 TO -10 DEGREE RANGE.
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASUREABLE SNOW IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THERE IS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE THAT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AND ACROSS
THE U.P. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SNOW. WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS...WILL
TREND POPS UP IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND THINK SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY (FROM A HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS) AND
WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH LAKE SUPERIOR PRETTY MUCH
FROZEN OVER. THERE ARE HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY DRY...WOULDN/T
EXPECT MORE THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT)
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA.
AS FOR HIGHS...VALUES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD BUT WARMER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY. 850MB TEMPS
STAY IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO MOST OF THE WEEK AND LIMITS HIGHS FROM
RISING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 20S LATE IN THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. SOME OF THE THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (AROUND 40
PERCENT) DO SHOW TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME FOR
MOST OF THE CWA SINCE FEB 21ST. 12Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS AROUND FREEZING ON MONDAY...SO WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND NEAR COMPLETE ICE
COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
-SN WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT VIS COULD DROP TO IFR FOR A
TIME AT KIWD/KSAW. LOOK FOR SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN THRU 18Z
TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
15-25KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SFC TROF THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TUE...BRINGING A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT.
AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU TUE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE
ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W.
TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1250 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH TROF EXTENDING W INTO WRN CANADA...
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO COVER A VAST AREA OF CANADA INTO THE NRN
CONUS. HOWEVER...THE COLD IS MODERATING AS 00Z RAOBS SHOWED 850MB
TEMPS OF -21C/-17C/-21C AT KINL/KGRB/KAPX RESPECTIVELY...ALL SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. COLD WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS PACIFIC AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD E IN LOW AMPLITUDE
FLOW. SFC TROF THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT BROUGHT A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A LONE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD/-SHSN
BAND EMANATING FROM A PATCH OF OPEN WATER/BKN ICE NEAR ISLE ROYALE
WAS EXTENDING SSE AND COMBINING WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM SOME
OPEN WATER/BKN ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW TO BRING
FLURRIES/-SHSN TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES/MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO -10 TO -25F IN
GENERAL.
TODAY WILL BE A QUIET DAY WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. MODERATING ARCTIC AIR MASS AND SUNSHINE
WORKING ON LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS MAY STILL FAIL TO GET ABOVE 10F OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND THE NE FCST AREA AS WINDS OFF THE FROZEN LAKE LIMIT
MIXING DEPTH. NAM/GEM SHOW A LAKE BREEZE OR MAYBE MORE
APPROPRIATE...ICE BREEZE...DEVELOPING INTO THE MARQUETTE AREA THIS
AFTN. IF SO...TEMPS MAY FALL BACK SEVERAL DEGREES AFTER RISING INTO
THE TEENS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS NOT WELL AGREED UPON YET...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF -SN WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI AT SOME
POINT TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NRN
PORTION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/DEEP LAYER FORCING AS WELL AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO. THUS...POPS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE S
(LIKELY) WITH CHC TO THE N. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG AVBL PER
280K SFC (ROUGHLY 700-725MB) AND 6HRS OR SO OF -SN...EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH N TO PERHAPS 1-2INCHES FAR
SCNTRL...CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS...TEMPS
AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BLO 0F TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE SERN CWA 12Z TUE...WITH THE BULK
OF ANY LIGHT SNOW SE OF THE CWA AFTER 12Z TUE. HAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LINGERING BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO TUE...BUT ONLY VERY
MINOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE OF THE CWA WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY ON
WED...WITH AT LEAST CHANCES OF PRECIP RETURNING THU INTO FRI AS
MODEL INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...SO USED A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE WHICH GAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS THU INTO FRI. SHOULD SEE WARMING TEMPS /BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL/ AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THU AND FRI AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 ON FRI.
A COLDER AIRMASS AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND NEAR COMPLETE ICE
COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
-SN WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT VIS COULD DROP TO IFR FOR A
TIME AT KIWD/KSAW. LOOK FOR SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN THRU 18Z
TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
15-25KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SFC TROF THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TUE...BRINGING A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT.
AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU TUE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE
ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W.
TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
506 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFF OF THE
COAST. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE ARCTIC COLD WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA STRETCHING FROM NEAR COLUMBIA SC TO FRYING PAN
SHOALS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC
THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIP HAS TRANSITIONED TO RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX FROM
KINSTON TO MANTEO AND NORTH...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NOTED
ON A WEBCAM ALONG HWY 12 NEAR DUCK. BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THIS EVENING EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
FALL DURING THIS TIME...EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WHICH COULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A 3-6C WARM NOSE PERSISTING THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING...EXPECT THE RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SLEET ALONG
WITH WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS THE SFC COLD POOL WILL QUICKLY
DEEPEN TO AROUND 3KFT. MOST OF THE HEAVIEST QPF FELL AS RAIN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO COLD AIR ARRIVAL. THERE WILL BE
LIMITED TIME FROM WHEN THE THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR SLEET TO WHEN
RAPID DRYING COMMENCES IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BRINGING A TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THEREFORE...SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SLEET AND
TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. THERMAL PROFILES FOR
AREAS FROM AROUND RODANTHE SOUTH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS SUGGEST
MAINLY RAIN FOR THESE AREAS...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SLEET
LATE. HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SLEET AND ICE. REFREEZING OF
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP
PATTERN...WITH SOME INLAND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HWY 64 BECOMING MORE
PATCHY IN NATURE WHILE NORTH OF HWY 64 REMAINS IN GREATER COVERAGE
OF WINTRY MIX. WITH BEST UPPER LIFT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIP APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUES MORNING.
STRONG CAA WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS WINDS GUST 35 TO 45 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PAMLICO
SOUND BUT WITH THE SHORT DURATION ONLY AROUND 6-9 HOURS NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH IS
WHAT IS INDICATED ON THE CERA WEBSITE.
TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND TONIGHT UNDER STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR
LINGERING DRIZZLE/RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN CARTERET AND ONSLOW COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TUES
WITH A STRONG INVERSION 1-2KFT FT ALOFT WITH NEAR SATURATION UP TO
8-9K FT. COLD MORNING TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S
BUT EXPECT TEMPS NEAR FREEZING FOR INLAND LOCATIONS BY MID MORNING.
WILL MAINTAIN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE REGION AS BLACK
ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADS CONTINUING TO BRING
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND HELP TO WRAP AROUND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
REMAIN SATURATED BELOW 8-9K FT TOMORROW SO EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
DURING THE DAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY WAS
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE UPPER 30S FOR INLAND SECTIONS TO MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NAM/ECMWF MODEL BLEND USED FOR
TUE NIGHT-WED...THEN ECMWF/GFS/WPC BLEND FOR THU-MONDAY. ACTIVE
SRN STREAM WITH COLD HIGH PRES WEDGED IN OVER AREA WILL PRODUCE COOL
AND WET PERIOD THROUGH END OF WEEK...THEN SOME MODERATION OVER
WEEKEND WITH RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT.
ANOTHER WEAK SHRT WV WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA FROM SW TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. MODELS INDICATE MAIN THREAT OF PCPN WILL BE ALONG COAST
CLOSER TO BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THERE BUT
CONTINUE TO CAP AT 50% DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. 30% CHANCE POPS FOR
COASTAL PLAINS AND WILL MENTION PSBL FREEZING RAIN THERE WITH MIN
TEMPS 30-32. NO ICING ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THREAT WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.
ADDITIONAL WEAK ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORM SW WED AFTN
AND WED NIGHT BUT MODELS INDICATE PCPN REMAINING MAINLY
OFFSHORE...THUS WILL CONTINUE ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR COAST. NO
P-TYPE ISSUES EXPECTED WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NEXT SYSTEM
WITH BOTH NOW INDICATING OPEN TROF EVOLVING INTO UPR LOW MOVING
ACROSS JUST S OF AREA THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC
LOW MOVING OUT OF GULFMEX AND DEEPENING JUST S OF AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE LATE FRI NIGHT...PRODUCING NOR`EASTER TYPE
CONDITIONS FOR ERN NC. GDNC INDICATES ATMOS WILL BE WARMER ENOUGH
FOR ALL RAIN...BUT PROLONGED NE WINDS MAY RESULT IN HIGH SURF AND
COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES...AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN. COASTAL SECTIONS COULD ALSO SEE PERIOD OF 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS
AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. CONTINUED HIGHEST POPS AT LIKELY
FOR ALL AREAS THU AFTN INTO FRIDAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING FROM W TO E
FRI NIGHT.
IN WAKE OF UPR LOW...RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SAT. WEAK NRN STREAM SHRT WV WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. RIDGING
AND DRY AGAIN FOR MONDAY.
COOL WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS 5-10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE
NIGHT-FRI...THEN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR SAT-MON.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM MON...COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED ALL TAF SITES WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS BEING OBSERVED. CEILING
HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN LOWERING WITHIN THE PAST HOUR TO MVFR...WITH
CEILING HEIGHTS TO LOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF PRECIP ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. SFC TEMPS WILL FALL TO BELOW FREEZING LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING WHILE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING...THEN
FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING WITH DRYING ALOFT. EXPECTING
PRECIP TO END APPROX BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...OVERALL POOR FLYING WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COOL WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY KEEP SUB-VFR
CIGS OVER MOST OF AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN BE
REINFORCED FOR WDSPRD PCPN WITH COASTAL SFC LOW THU INTO FRIDAY
NIGY. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN PSBL LATE TUE NIGHT FOR KPGV AND
KISO. GUSTY NE WINDS PSBL FOR KOAJ AND KEWN THU INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR SAT WITH RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 5 PM MONDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE STRONG
N/NE WINDS 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT AND SEAS ELEVATED 9-11 FT
FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. STRONG CAA IN NLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TUESDAY. GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BECOME REPLACED WITH SCAS LATE TONIGHT FOR ELEVATED SEAS AND GUSTY
WINDS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS HAD A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON HIGH SEAS FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS WHILE THE 12Z WAVEWATCH REMAINS 3-4 FT TOO
LOW...THUS USED LOCAL SWAN FOR SHORT TERM SEAS FORECAST. SEAS
10-13 FT WILL SUBSIDE 7-10 FT TUESDAY...WITH 4-7 FT FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SUNDAY...VERY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT SAT. NE WINDS DIMINISH EARLY TUE NIGT...BUT
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY WED MORNING WITH WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF AT LEAST SCA CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY
FOR THU-FRI AS SLOW MOVING NOR`EASTER TYPE LOW MOVES ALONG JUST S
AND SE OF WATERS. PER LONG-TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE...HIGH SURF...BEACH
EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IF LOW MOVES AS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
IN BETTER BUT STILL ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
CONTINUED TO USE NWPS THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN LEANED TO WW3 FOR
REST OF PERIOD. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT AND MAY DROP BELOW 6 FT
FOR A PERIOD...BUT WILL THEN BUILD AGAIN WED AND THU...WITH
PROLONGED PERIOD OF AT LEAST 8-11 FT SEAS FOR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SEAS SUBSIDING FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS LOW MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BUT 6 FT
HEIGHTS LIKELY LINGERING OUTER PORTIONS NRN WATERS THROUGH SAT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ029-
044>047-079>081-103.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ090>095-
098.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK/DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/BM/SK
MARINE...JBM/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
327 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WITH
MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SOME LIGHT FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY...CONTINUING
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
THE COAST. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE COAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY STEAMING SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH SOME 20 DEGREE SPREAD IN CURRENT TEMPS BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN FORECAST/MODELED...A FACT THAT MAY BE
QUITE RELEVANT TO THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS THE COLD AIR
CONTINUES ITS CHARGE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO SUPPORT FREEZING
RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN SLEET. THIS WILL HAPPEN EARLIEST OVER NRN
ZONES...IN THE 00Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME. TROUBLE IS...THIS IS THE SAME
TIME THAT THE MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT...AND RATHER EMPHATICALLY.
THUS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER A GIVEN AREA
APPEARS TO BE VERY SHORT IN NATURE...IF AT ALL. OVERALL POPS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOWN TO TAPER OFF TO
NON-MEASURABLE MORE QUICKLY. WHAT FORECASTS DO SHOW WELL BETWEEN
VARIOUS MODELS IS A CONTINUED SATURATION THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KFT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE THERE BEING A DRY MID LAYER AND NO REAL LIFT
TO SPEAK OF THIS IMPLIES THAT THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
FROM TIME TO TIME JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AREA-WIDE. OPERATIONAL MODELS
DO INDICATE AS SUCH AND IT HAS BEEN IN PREV FORECAST SO IT WILL BE
MAINTAINED HERE. BUT EVEN THE LIKELY OVERDONE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOW NO MEASURABLE PRECIP AND SREF PROBS OF 0.01 DROP OFF COMPLETELY
BY 06Z. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AND GOES DRY BY 01Z...BARELY INTO THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR PTYPE ISSUES. THIS ALL PAIRED WITH THE RECENT WARM WEATHER WE
HAVE BEEN STRESSING THAT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE
ANTICIPATED. THIS HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO HANDLE
THE CURRENT WW ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR NRN ROW OF COUNTIES. WAS QUITE
TEMPTED TO DROP IT...BUT WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT THAT DECISION ESP
SINCE JUST A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF FZRA WOULD NECESSITATE IT BEING
IN EFFECT AND ONE WOULD HATE TO LOWER IT ONLY TO HAVE IT
SUBSEQUENTLY RE-ISSUED IN SUCH A SHORT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A HIGHLY UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS AN ARCTIC FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE WHILE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BANKED ALONG THE EAST
COAST BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT STALLED JUST OFFSHORE. ALOFT...SW FLOW
AHEAD DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WARM/MOIST FLOW
ABOVE THE SURFACE WEDGE...WHILE SOME ENHANCED CONFLUENCE WILL
ACTUALLY HELP REINFORCE ITS STRENGTH. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK
TUESDAY REVOLVES AROUND WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST...IF NOT
ALL...OF THE CWA...WHILE TEMPS BETWEEN 950MB AND 850MB WARM TO +2C
TO +4C. MOIST LOW LEVELS OF THE COLUMN PERSIST ALL OF TUESDAY...BUT
VERY DRY AIR EXISTS ABOVE 850MB...SUCH THAT PWATS REMAIN RATHER
LOW...AROUND ONE-HALF INCH. SO THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP...EVEN MORE DETERMINING
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING SEVERAL HOURS INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPS ONLY
VERY SLOWLY WARM...LIKELY MUCH SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS
AND REINFORCING WEDGE. STILL...WILL CARRY ZL FOR ALL ZONES INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING MAYBE A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTH.
AGAIN...AM CONCERNED ABOUT LACK OF FORCING (ISENTROPIC LIFT IS VERY
WEAK) AND THE DRY AIR ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP QPF AT 0 FOR NOW. THIS IS
A VERY BORDERLINE SITUATION HOWEVER...SINCE SIMPLY A TRACE OF ZR
REQUIRES A WW.Y...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A
FLUID SITUATION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR POTENTIAL
EXPANSION OF CURRENT WW.Y TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE CWA.
A MORE IMPRESSIVE AREA OF PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY OVERHEAD IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. FORECAST PROFILES
SATURATE CONSIDERABLY...AND MOS P12/P24 VALUES SKYROCKET TO THE HIGH
LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS
QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN THE GFS ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL NOT BE AS
AGGRESSIVE AS GFS IS SHOWING FOR QPF...BUT DEFINITELY BETTER RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WED THAN TUESDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY...TEMPS
WILL HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO JUST A COLD
RAIN IS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS LATE
WEDNESDAY...BUT RENEWED HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY LATE IN THE PERIOD
AND ON THURSDAY AS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. INHERITED POP SHOWS INCREASING TO HIGH-CHC FROM
SW TO NE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND FEEL THIS IS WARRANTED
SO WILL MAKE ONLY MINIMAL INCREASE TO THE WED NIGHT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS THE REINFORCING WEDGE
COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL PREVENT MUCH WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS WILL PEAK ONLY IN THE 30S MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME LOW 40S POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. THIS IS 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE! LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPS FOR
MINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME WARMING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...RISING INTO THE MID/UPR 40S...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID/UPR 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW SHOULD BE TAKING
SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY...SPREADING PLENTY OF THICK
CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH 12Z GFS WAS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF REGARDING THE DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. I HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80
PERCENT AND STORM-TOTAL QPF TO NEAR 1 INCH PENDING CONFIRMATION
FROM ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF MODEL RUNS.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ROLL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND PERIODS OF LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
RAIN TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE 12Z GFS LOOKED SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF WAS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AS IT BOMBS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE NC COAST. ROUGHLY 20 PERCENT OF
THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOWED A STRONG SURFACE LOW LIKE THE
12Z ECMWF SITTING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY...SO THIS IDEA WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ASSUMING WE GET SOME SUNSHINE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY HIGHS SHOULD REACH 53-57...COOLEST AT
THE COAST. (OF COURSE IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS RIGHT AND WE STAY CLOUDY/
RAINY/WINDY MOST OF THE DAY THESE HIGHS COULD BE 10 DEGREES TOO
OPTIMISTIC)
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.
HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY WILL SEEM WONDERFUL AFTER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS PLUS THE DAYTIME SEABREEZE WORKING
TOGETHER TO KEEP THE BEACHES CONSIDERABLY COOLER COMPARED TO INLAND
LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ALOFT WITH
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE 12Z GFS WAS MUCH
FARTHER EAST THAN EITHER OF TODAY`S ECWMF RUNS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CUTTING OFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GOING WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION MEANS WE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNLESS A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG A SOUTHWARD-MOVING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN
THE EAST COAST SUNDAY EVENING. THIS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE THE
RESULT OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD BRING LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREA OF RAIN NOW IMPACTING KFLO AND KLBT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR VISIBILITIES. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO WORK IT
WAY TO THE COASTAL TAFS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AND IT WILL BRING IN IFR CONDITIONS AS CEILINGS
WILL LOWER LATER TODAY AND IN THE OVERNIGHT AREA. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 06 UTC AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
FROM 06 TO 12 UTC TUESDAY. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MVFR RANGE INLAND BY EARLY
TUESDAY AND MID-MORNING AT THE COAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE PRECIPITATION/IFR WED AND THURS EVNG THROUGH FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA STILL IN THE PREFRONTAL SWRLY
FLOW SAVE FOR PERHAPS NRN PENDER WATERS. 41013 SEEING WINDS CRANK UP
INTO 25 TO 30 KT RANGE...THE LATTER GENERALLY GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS THAN
PREVIOUS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE FREQUENT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING GALE WARNING UP. EVEN PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD
MENTIONED THAT IT WAS A MARGINAL CASE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS GOING TO HAVE LITTLE SUPPORT FROM ALOFT AS WINDS ALOFT STAY
RATHER LACKLUSTER AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...BOTH
OF WHICH WILL MEAN NO MIXING DOWN OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS USUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...WITH A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
ALONG THE COAST BEHIND IT. THIS WEDGE WILL CONTROL THE LOCAL WIND
TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A NE DIRECTION PERSISTENT
THROUGH MID-WEEK. SPEEDS WILL CHANGE WITH THE FLUCTUATING
GRADIENT...EASING FROM 15-25 KTS EARLY TUESDAY TO 10-15 KTS LATE
TUESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 15-20 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS
WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A 6-7 NE WIND WAVE...WITH AMPLITUDES
FALLING FROM 4-7 FT EARLY...TO 3-5 FT MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND
RISING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 3-6 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THURSDAY. VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG A LINE FROM
FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY MORNING CONSOLIDATING INTO A
SINGLE LOW ABOUT 100 MILES OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY
EVENING. THE LOW SHOULD STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT FOLLOWS THE GULF
STREAM NORTHEASTWARD. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST/NORTH WINDS AND SEAS.
MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE LOW FRIDAY: THE 12Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF TAKE THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH DIMINISHING IMPACTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT
HOWEVER...SLOWING THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ON
FRIDAY AS IT BOMBS THE STORM DOWN TO BELOW 1000 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE
WHILE OVER THE WARM WATER SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THIS SCENARIO
COULD BRING NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS BY SATURDAY THE
LOW SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND QUICKLY DIMINISHING
SEAS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
105-106.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...MBB/DRH
MARINE...TRA/JDW/MBB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
113 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFF OF THE COAST. A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM MON...MID MORNING UPDATE WAS MAINLY TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. ADJUSTED POPS WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS.
MODELS ARE INDICATING PRECIP STARTING OUR WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
APPROX 16Z...SO THEREFORE DECREASED POPS ALONG HWY 64 AND EAST OF
HWY 17 TO SLIGHTLY CHANCE.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE ARTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHING
ACROSS GOLDSBORO TO CEDAR ISLAND. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
THE AREA OF LOW PRES PUSHING OFF CAPE FEAR THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DAMPENING SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
AROUND 09Z...ALONG THE HIGHWAY 70 CORRIDOR AROUND 15Z AND PUSHING
SOUTH OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
18Z MON-00Z TUE AND EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL DURING THIS
TIME...EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH COULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. INITIALLY PRECIP WILL FALL AS
RAIN...BUT STRONG CAA ADVECTION WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING A WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP FROM N TO
S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH A 3-6C WARM NOSE PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY SLEET
ALONG WITH WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS THE SFC COLD POOL WILL
QUICKLY DEEPEN TO AROUND 3FT. MODEL/WPC AVERAGE STORM TOTAL LIQUID
QPF IS AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH. THERE WILL BE
LIMITED TIME FROM WHEN THE THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR SLEET TO WHEN
RAPID DRYING COMMENCES IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BRINGING A TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THEREFORE...SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SLEET AND
TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. THERMAL PROFILES FOR
AREAS FROM AROUND RODANTHE SOUTH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS SUGGEST
MAINLY RAIN FOR THESE AREAS...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SLEET
LATE. HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SLEET AND ICE.
STRONG CAA WILL BRING GUSTY NLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
FROPA AND COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND PARTS OF DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY AND
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT
WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PAMLICO
SOUND BUT WITH THE SHORT DURATION ONLY AROUND 6-9 HRS NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH MORE THAN 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH IS WHAT IS
INDICATED ON THE CERA WEBSITE.
TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH RAPID COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS CURRENTLY AROUND 48-58 ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL THROUGH THE 40S AND
INTO THE 30S AFTER FROPA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE SPREAD IN
HIGHS TODAY WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS LIKELY WARMING TO AROUND 60
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL REACH
THEIR HIGHS AROUND 50 AROUND DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE
AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING AND MID LEVEL DRYING ENDING BEST PRECIP PROCESSES.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS MOST AREAS BUT ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
THE 20S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COAST...WITH BLACK ICE
POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADS CONTINUING TO BRING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. ANY
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST AS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS THRU
THE DAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...BY SEVERAL DEGREES...AND
KEEP SKIES RATHER CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER OFFSHORE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...HAVE KEPT A SMALL RISK OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG
AS PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A HIGH
COVERAGE OF RAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH LIKELY GUSTY WINDS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
FOR SATURDAY. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER QUICK
SHOT OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 AM MON...COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED ALL TAF SITES WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS BEING OBSERVED. CEILING
HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN LOWERING WITHIN THE PAST HOUR TO MVFR...WITH
CEILING HEIGHTS TO LOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF PRECIP ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. SFC TEMPS WILL FALL TO BELOW FREEZING LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING WHILE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING...THEN
FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING WITH DRYING ALOFT. EXPECTING
PRECIP TO END APPROX BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS THAN OPTIMAL
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH REDUCED CEILINGS AND VSBYS
LIKELY FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. THE INITIAL BAND OF
RAIN WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THRU WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONGER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
BE LIKELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRIER AIR AND MORE VFR CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...CURRENT MARINE IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE ARTIC COLD FRONT ALONG CEDAR ISLAND. NORTH OF
CEDAR ISLAND...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NE 15 TO 20 KTS GUSTING UP TO
27 KTS. SEAS HAVE INCREASED IN OUR NORTHERN MARINE ZONE...5 TO 6 FT. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WINDS REMAIN SW 10-20 KTS.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS...SOUTH OF THE REGION AROUND 2 PM. STRONG CAA IN NLY FLOW
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS AROUND
35-40 KT.
USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS NWPS AND WAVEWATCH FOR SEAS...WEIGHING
HIGHER TOWARD NWPS. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT
WITH CAA SURGE...LIKELY PEAKING AT 10-12 FT NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM MONDAY...GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING IN THE EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY AS A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONG SMALL CRAFT AND
POTENTIAL GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...SEAS WILL
BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 8 TO 9 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS BY SATURDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-103.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NCZ090>095-098.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ135-152-154-156-158.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/BM
SHORT TERM...SK/BM
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK/BM
MARINE...CTC/SK/BM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
341 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
TO OVERCOME AND THUS WILL KEEP OUT ANY POPS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME FLURRIES THAT MAKE IT THROUGH THE DRY AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
OTHER QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER WE SEE ANY LOW STRATUS FORM.
NAM..GFS...HRRR AND RAP ALL SHOW A PRETTY STRONG SIGNAL...AS LOW
LEVEL MOIST AIR IS ADVECTED NORTH INTO OUR COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER
NOTHING OUT THERE RIGHT NOW...AND THE GEM AND ECMWF SEEM A LITTLE
LESS AGGRESSIVE ON THE STRATUS. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. INITIALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY AS
THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HELP KEEP THINGS MIXED.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EXIT LATER
TONIGHT. IF STRATUS IS NOT AROUND OR EXITS...COULD SEE SOME SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES BY MORNING. HOWEVER IF STRATUS STICKS AROUND READINGS
WOULD BE STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO. FOR NOW
WILL GO THE MIDDLE GROUND...SINCE CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON WHICH
SOLUTION WILL VERIFY.
TOMORROW WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH THE SLOW WARMING TREND
CONTINUING...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND AN EASTERLY WIND
AROUND 10 MPH. ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRETTY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL BEING A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE AN AREA OF SNOW AFTER WE
SATURATE THE INITIALLY DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS. CURRENT THOUGHT IS
THAT WE WILL SEE AN AREA OF SNOW FORM ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE
WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BEST CHANCE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO
SPENCER IOWA LINE...CLOSER TO THE BETTER PV ADVECTION AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTERACTION. 12Z NAM SEEMED TOO SLOW AND THUS WAS NOT
USED...WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS...GEM AND ECMWF SEEMING LIKE THE WAY
TO GO. GIVEN THE PERIOD OF PRETTY GOOD OMEGA...THE HIGHER QPF OF THE
HI RES MODELS AND GEM DOES SEEM POSSIBLE. SO DID TREND QPF UP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE 18Z NAM HAS ACTUALLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE
OTHER MODELS...AND NOW MATCHES THE FORECAST PRETTY WELL. THINKING WE
SEE AN AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES SOMEWHERE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
CURRENT BEST GUESS BEING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
COUNTIES...WITH GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ELSEWHERE. MODELS TODAY HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST WITH QPF INTO THE AREA OF BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL FALL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...ALLOWING THE LIGHT
SNOWFALL LINGERING ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF TO COME TO AN END BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...KEEPING PREVENTING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING MUCH FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. LIGHT WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PUT A CAP ON THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH THE 20S WITH SOME LOW 30S IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FURTHER BOLSTERING
READINGS DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT STRATUS ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN TIMING THAN THE GEM AND
GFS...BUT ALL MODELS DO TRACK THE BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEEING ANY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF...BUT EVEN HERE MID
LEVELS REMAIN PRETTY DRY. WILL LEAVE ONLY MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX WITH FAIRLY MILD MID/LOW LEVELS AND SUB FREEZING AT THE SURFACE.
THE WARMING TREND RESUMES SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING
BUILDING BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOLLOWED BY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW
TO MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW MORNING IS LOW. WILL KEEP THE MVFR CIGS
IN THE TAFS AT ALL THREE SITES...AS INDICATIONS FROM THE NAM...GFS
AND RAP ARE THAT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTEHRLY
FLOW...STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP. IF IT DOES FORM IT MAY TEND TO LINGER
INTO TOMORROW...AS FLOW WEAKENS LEAVING THE MOISTURE OVER US. THIS
TYPE OF WINTER TIME STRATUS IS TOUGH TO PREDICT...AND SOMETIMES
MODELS OVERDO IT...SO FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND
ADJUST TAFS AS NEEDED. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA TOMORROW...BEST CHANCE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. MOST OF THIS
SHOULD FALL AFTER 18Z...SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1146 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014
DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST
MN AND THE EASTERN SECTION OF EAST CENTRAL SD EARLY TODAY. THIS IS
BECAUSE MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THAT AREA AND WILL LIKELY
NOT EXIT ANYTIME SOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES MODERATED. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO ENCROACH INTO OUR
EASTERN ZONES KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. NORTHWEST IA AND THE SIOUX FALLS
AREA IS ALSO MARGINAL IN KEEPING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY GOING.
HOWEVER DECIDED TO LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW AS THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO NORTHWEST IA. IF THEY DO...WILL LIKELY BE ABLE
TO CANCEL THOSE AREAS EARLY ALSO BY SUNRISE. OUR WESTERN ZONES HAVE
A BIT MORE WIND DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW. OTHERWISE A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...PRIMARILY AFFECTING AREAS NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. INSTEAD OF A SMALL MEASURABLE POP...OPTED TO JUST
MENTION FLURRIES FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND SOUTHWEST MN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PAINT SOME STRATUS
POTENTIAL WITH THIS WAVE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS...
COUPLED WITH A FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE OF -12C TO -18C IN THE
STRATUS LAYER. IF THE MODELS ARE OVER ZEALOUS IN DEVELOPING THE
STRATUS...THEN EVEN FLURRIES WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR AS THE NEXT CLOUD
DECK IS UP IN THE MID LEVELS. THE RETURN FLOW WILL MODERATE OUR
HIGHS TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT STILL WAY
BELOW NORMAL. COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST...IT STILL WILL NOT FEEL VERY GOOD.
TONIGHT...MODERATED AIR WILL BE AROUND. THE OVERALL AIR MASS AT
925MB IS SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER WHEN COMPARED TO RIGHT NOW. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER EITHER IN THE
FORM OF STRATUS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...OR A MID TO UPPER CLOUD DECK.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014
THE TUESDAY SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA IS A LITTLE TRICKY. FIRST ON
TIMING...THE 00Z NAM FOR SOME REASON DELAYS THE ARRIVAL AND
DEPARTURES OF THIS SYSTEM QUITE A BIT AND SEEMS OUT OF LINE WITH THE
OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL NAM...GEM...AND GFS. OUR
EARLIER FORECAST FITS WITH THESE OTHER MODELS FAIRLY WELL SO WILL
REJECT THE NAM TIMING. ALSO...THIS POTENTIAL LITTLE EVENT SEEMS TO
BE DRIVEN MORE BY THE WAVE DYNAMICS THAN ANY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT
UNLIKE SOME OF OUR OTHER RECENT SYSTEMS...SO THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS. SINCE THE GFS STILL PRODUCES AMPLE
LIFT...WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF AN INCH PLUS IN OUR NORTHEAST
CORNER...PART OF SOUTHWEST MN...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN THAT
AREA. SOME MINOR APPARENT COOLING AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY WILL
MANIFEST ITSELF IN ONLY A LITTLE SLOWDOWN OF SURFACE WARMING AS
THE MIXING PROCESS TAKES CARE OF THE CURRENTLY ANCHORED LOW LEVEL
ARCTIC AIR. SNOWFALL OR NOT...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH AND BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THESE
SHOULD HOLD IN TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DECREASE SLOWLY FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AS SLOW DRYING ACCOMPANIES THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT
WARM ADVECTION EPISODE. THIS WILL SET UP A PATTERN OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SOUTHWEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTHEAST DURING A DRY AND MILDER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WARMING TO
THE 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE 40S SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BEGIN TO MELT
SOME OF THE SNOW COVER.
FRIDAY WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...AS SOME HALF DECENT THERMAL PACKING IS
BRIEFLY DRIVEN BACK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA...AND WEAK SHORT
WAVE PASSES. RIDGING THEN WILL BRING THE START OF WARMING FROM THE
WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH APPEARS TO INCREASE STRONGLY FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST...AND DO SOME SERIOUS MARCH SNOWMELT. THE EC
SEEMS TOO STRONG ON THE WARMING...BUT THE GFS HAS PICKED UP SOME ON
IT...SO IF THE TREND CONTINUES AND IF THE EC IS CLOSE...WE COULD BE
TOO WEAK ON THE SUNDAY WARMUP...BUT AM NOT GETTING THE GOLF CLUBS
OUT QUITE YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW MORNING IS LOW. WILL KEEP THE MVFR CIGS
IN THE TAFS AT ALL THREE SITES...AS INDICATIONS FROM THE NAM...GFS
AND RAP ARE THAT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTEHRLY
FLOW...STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP. IF IT DOES FORM IT MAY TEND TO LINGER
INTO TOMORROW...AS FLOW WEAKENS LEAVING THE MOISTURE OVER US. THIS
TYPE OF WINTER TIME STRATUS IS TOUGH TO PREDICT...AND SOMETIMES
MODELS OVERDO IT...SO FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND
ADJUST TAFS AS NEEDED. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA TOMORROW...BEST CHANCE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. MOST OF THIS
SHOULD FALL AFTER 18Z...SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
251 PM PST Mon Mar 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A much warmer and wetter weather pattern will arrive this week
with several several moist frontal systems expected. Look for
widespread rain Wednesday and Thursday, and again Saturday night
into Sunday. The combination of rain and melting snow will
heighten the potential for minor flooding of farm land and urban
areas that have problems with drainage. By the weekend, several
rivers in the Idaho Panhandle and southeast Washington may
experience significant rises.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TO BRING RAIN...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING STARTING WEDNESDAY...
Tonight: As the frontal band pushes through north Idaho and into
Montana, the threat for wintry precipitation will be decreasing.
Expect upslope mountain snow showers over the Idaho panhandle, but
additional snow accumulations should be minor. Meanwhile snow
showers will continue near the Cascade crest, but again these slop-
over snow showers are not expected to be significant under this
unstable westerly flow. Temperatures will creep above freezing
south of a line from Moses Lake to Spokane and Coeur d`Alene early
this evening, but then cool slightly overnight back to freezing.
This may cause some icy problems with the overnight cool early
Tuesday morning. Under this warmer regime and light winds during
the overnight hours, expect area of fog and low stratus especially in
many of the northern valleys and upper Columbia Basin tonight.
/rfox.
Tuesday through Thursday: Satellite imagery shows a moist
subtropical moisture plume originating off the Hawaiian Islands and
pointed toward the western U.S. This moisture plume is expected to
be directed toward the region as a couple of shortwave disturbances
push across the region. The first wave is expected to hit Wednesday
morning into Wednesday afternoon. This wave will essentially push
across as a warm front with moist isentropic lift across much of
the region. The second and stronger disturbance will push in
quickly on the heals of the first. This shortwave will be
accompanied by some good dynamics aloft with strong isentropic
ascent in the warm sector before a cold front passes through
around the morning hours on Thursday. Southerly winds will
increase during the overnight hours on Wednesday with windy
conditions possible by Thursday morning into the afternoon behind
the cold front.
* Precipitation and Snow Levels: Most areas are expected to see
valley rain and mountain snow with these two weather systems.
The one caveat will be in the upper reaches of the Methow Valley
over into the Okanogan Highlands. Snow levels may remain low
enough that locations such as Mazama, Winthrop and Republic will
start out as snow Wednesday morning before transitioning over to
rain through Wednesday afternoon. Snow accumulations in these
valleys are expected to be light in the range of 1 to 3 inches.
Precip amounts with the two systems will be moderate to heavy in
places. The east slopes of the Cascades are expected to see
around a half an inch to an inch with closer to 1.5 to 2 inches
along the crest. The Okanogan Highlands over to the Northern
Panhandle and into the Central Panhandle Mtns are expected to
see precip totals of between a half an inch to 1 inch total;
local accumulations of over an inch of precip will be possible
over a 36 hour period. Rainfall accumulations of around a half
an inch will be possible across the eastern portions of the
Upper Columbia Basin, into the Spokane Coeur d`Alene area and
down onto the Palouse. Heavy mountain snowfall will be possible
in the mountains above 4500 feet in the northern mtns and 5500
feet in the Central Panhandle Mtns.
* Temperatures: Milder air under southwesterly flow is expected
during this period. Expect temps warming into the 40s and 50s by
Thursday. Wednesday night`s low temps will also be quite mild
with dew point temps in the mid to upper 30s for much of the
region. Dew point temps above freezing will add to proficiency of
melting snow at low and mid elevations.
* Flood Potential: The combination of warming temps and moderate
to heavy rain will result in rises to area rivers and small
streams. Flood is not expected on main stem rivers at this time.
The greatest threat will be for flooding along small stream and
creeks, urban area flooding and mud slides/debris flows. Valley
snowfall of 4 to 8 inches in places and frozen soils will
heighten the potential for flooding. A Flood Watch will be
issued for portions of the Upper Columbia Basin, the Spokane
Area, the northern mountain areas of eastern WA and in the ID
Panhandle for Tuesday night through Friday afternoon.
* Winds: Breezy conditions are expected on Thursday with winds up
to 20 to 25 mph and gusts as high as 35 mph across the basin. /SVH
Thursday Night through Saturday: There is good model agreement
that rain and mountain snow will be winding down Thursday night
into early Friday morning. Modest cool advection Thursday night
behind the cold front will likely push snow levels down into the
3000-4000 ft range across the Inland Northwest. At this time, we
are not looking for snow accumulations in the valleys. The good
news with the falling snow levels will be a bit of a decrease in
the rate of snow melt in the mid elevations Thursday night into
Friday. Travel over the mountain passes, especially above 4000
feet may become slushy and treacherous Thursday night into Friday
morning.
A shortwave ridge Friday and Friday night should bring a break in
the active weather pattern. Orographic rain and mountain snow
showers over the Idaho Panhandle will be mostly a morning event on
Friday if the ECMWF, GFS and Canadian models hold true.
The next mild, breezy, and wet frontal system should arrive
Saturday night into Sunday. There is very good model agreement
leading higher than average forecast confidence for the weekend
forecast. /GKoch
Sunday and Monday: A strong push of moisture will continue to pass
through the region. This will keep chances for precip across the
Inland Northwest high. Warm southerly flow will continue to
impact the region. The warmer temperatures will push the snow
levels to the higher elevations of the mountains and most places
can expect to see rain showers. By late Sunday into early Monday,
a weak ridge will creep into the region and start a drying trend
and decreasing precipitation chances in the region. Temperatures
are expected to remain around the season normals. /JDC
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Mixed precipitation will effect KEAT, KMWH, KGEG and KCOE
through 21z as a warm front lifts northward. Based on recent ACCRS
data, the warm layer is deepening and should help to scrub out the
boundary layer cold layer this afternoon at these sites. KPUW and
KLWS will see occasional rain. HRRR data shows not much
precipitation after this band pulls through after 00z, with just
valley rain/mountain snow. Local MVFR cigs are possible with area of
stratus and fog. rfox.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 32 43 34 44 39 48 / 30 40 40 100 100 80
Coeur d`Alene 32 41 34 43 37 46 / 40 50 50 100 100 80
Pullman 36 43 35 45 40 49 / 40 50 50 90 100 80
Lewiston 38 46 38 50 42 53 / 50 40 40 60 90 70
Colville 31 43 34 44 35 50 / 40 40 50 100 100 80
Sandpoint 31 40 33 41 36 46 / 70 80 70 100 100 100
Kellogg 33 38 33 42 37 44 / 100 100 70 100 100 100
Moses Lake 31 44 33 52 43 57 / 20 10 20 80 90 30
Wenatchee 30 41 33 49 39 52 / 20 10 20 80 100 30
Omak 29 41 29 45 35 50 / 20 20 10 100 90 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Friday morning for
Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho
Palouse-Northern Panhandle.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Northern
Panhandle.
WA...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Friday morning for
Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area-Upper
Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
211 PM PST Mon Mar 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A very moist series of storms will move through the Pacific
Northwest through Thursday. Each storm will be warmer than the
last with snow turning to rain at most locations except the higher
mountains between Today and Thursday. A brief break period at the
end of the week will be followed by more wet weather this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Band of mixed precipitation has moved into north Idaho and the
Palouse...which brings an end to the freezing rain to the Spokane
area and the upper Columbia Basin and northeast Washington
mountains. Still have a winter highlight for Idaho zone 1, but
that will end as the passage of the front late this afternoon.
Meanwhile, snow shower will continue near the crest, but
accumulations are expected to dwindle on the lower slopes so took
down the highlight for the east slopes of the Cascades. /rfox.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Mixed precipitation will effect KEAT, KMWH, KGEG and KCOE
through 21z as a warm front lifts northward. Based on recent ACCRS
data, the warm layer is deepening and should help to scrub out the
boundary layer cold layer this afternoon at these sites. KPUW and
KLWS will see occasional rain. HRRR data shows not much
precipitation after this band pulls through after 00z, with just
valley rain/mountain snow. Local MVFR cigs are possible with area of
stratus and fog. rfox.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 36 32 43 34 44 39 / 50 30 40 40 100 100
Coeur d`Alene 35 32 41 34 43 37 / 60 40 50 50 100 100
Pullman 41 36 43 35 45 40 / 50 40 50 50 90 100
Lewiston 44 38 46 38 50 42 / 50 50 40 40 60 90
Colville 32 31 43 34 44 35 / 30 40 40 50 100 100
Sandpoint 31 31 40 33 41 36 / 70 70 80 70 100 100
Kellogg 36 33 38 33 42 37 / 90 100 100 70 100 100
Moses Lake 34 31 44 33 52 43 / 20 20 10 20 80 90
Wenatchee 31 30 41 33 49 39 / 30 20 10 20 80 100
Omak 32 29 41 29 45 35 / 20 20 20 10 100 90
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Friday morning for
Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho
Palouse-Northern Panhandle.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Northern
Panhandle.
WA...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Friday morning for
Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area-Upper
Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1208 PM PST Mon Mar 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A very moist series of storms will move through the Pacific
Northwest through Thursday. Each storm will be warmer than the
last with snow turning to rain at most locations except the higher
mountains between Today and Thursday. A brief break period at the
end of the week will be followed by more wet weather this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Was able to take down a few highlights, based on both radar trends
and temperatures. The main brunt of the precipitation has exited
the Wenatchee area and Waterville Plateau where the threat for
mixed precipitation is low anyway due to the cold air damning. The
Moses Lake area is still below freezing, but main band has shifted
to the east and only expect isolated to scattered showers.
Meanwhile, the Coeur d`Alene area and the Central panhandle have
warmed considerable with snow levels up to Lookout Pass and threat
for freezing rain very low. So will extend the advisory until 2 pm for
the Upper Columbia Basin and Spokane area where temperatures are
near freezing and precipitation heavy to moderate. Also extended
the winter storm warning for the Northeast Washington mountains
and north Idaho until 4 pm, as will the east slopes of the
Cascades. /rfox.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Mixed precipitation will effect KEAT, KMWH, KGEG and KCOE
through 21z as a warm front lifts northward. Based on recent ACCRS
data, the warm layer is deepening and should help to scrub out the
boundary layer cold layer this afternoon at these sites. KPUW and
KLWS will see occasional rain. HRRR data shows not much
precipitation after this band pulls through after 00z, with just
valley rain/mountain snow. Local MVFR cigs are possible with area of
stratus and fog. rfox.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 36 33 44 34 45 41 / 100 50 40 40 100 100
Coeur d`Alene 35 32 43 33 44 39 / 100 50 50 50 100 100
Pullman 41 36 46 36 49 42 / 70 50 50 50 90 100
Lewiston 44 38 52 40 54 44 / 70 50 40 40 60 90
Colville 32 31 45 31 45 36 / 100 50 40 50 100 100
Sandpoint 31 31 41 32 42 37 / 100 80 80 70 100 100
Kellogg 36 33 40 34 43 39 / 100 80 100 70 100 100
Moses Lake 34 32 52 35 52 44 / 50 20 10 20 80 90
Wenatchee 31 31 47 35 49 40 / 50 20 10 20 80 100
Omak 32 30 46 31 46 37 / 60 30 20 10 100 90
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Northern
Panhandle.
WA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for East
Slopes Northern Cascades-Northeast Mountains.
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM PST this afternoon for
Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
940 AM PST Mon Mar 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A very moist series of storms will move through the Pacific
Northwest through Thursday. Each storm will be warmer than the
last with snow turning to rain at most locations except the higher
mountains between Today and Thursday. A brief break period at the
end of the week will be followed by more wet weather this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Next band of precipitation quickly pushing across eastern
Washington. Main concern is the low level temp profile. A warm
front spans from near KALW, northeast toward Escure, Cheney, and
Harrison with a bubble of above freezing air to the south. Along
and northwest of this boundary, expect a wintry mix. Latest KMWH
obs shows freezing rain and this should reach impact I-90 to the
Spokane area through 10 am. The warm air will work its way to the
ground through midday with a transistion to rain expected across
the lower Basin and Spokane area. Although, the HRRR shows the
main brunt of the precipitation leaving the Basin after 21z, and
the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area after 23z. rfox.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Mixed precipitation will effect KEAT, KMWH, KGEG and KCOE
through 21z as a warm front lifts northward. Based on recent ACCRS
data, the warm layer is deepening and should help to scrub out the
boundary layer cold layer this afternoon at these sites. KPUW and
KLWS will see occasional rain. HRRR data shows not much
precipitation after this band pulls through after 00z, with just
valley rain/mountain snow. Local MVFR cigs are possible with area of
stratus and fog. rfox.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 36 33 44 34 45 41 / 90 60 50 30 100 100
Coeur d`Alene 35 32 43 33 44 39 / 90 70 60 50 100 100
Pullman 42 36 46 36 49 42 / 80 70 70 50 80 90
Lewiston 44 39 52 40 54 44 / 80 60 60 40 60 90
Colville 34 31 45 31 45 36 / 90 70 50 30 100 100
Sandpoint 31 31 41 32 42 37 / 100 70 70 60 100 100
Kellogg 36 33 40 34 43 39 / 100 90 100 70 100 100
Moses Lake 37 34 52 35 52 44 / 60 30 20 20 80 90
Wenatchee 34 33 47 35 49 40 / 60 30 20 10 80 90
Omak 33 30 46 31 46 37 / 70 30 20 10 100 100
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until Noon PST today for Coeur d`Alene
Area.
Winter Storm Warning until Noon PST today for Central Panhandle
Mountains-Northern Panhandle.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until Noon PST today for Moses Lake Area-
Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-
Wenatchee Area.
Winter Storm Warning until Noon PST today for Northeast
Mountains.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for East
Slopes Northern Cascades.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
854 AM PST Mon Mar 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A very moist series of storms will move through the Pacific
Northwest through Thursday. Each storm will be warmer than the
last with snow turning to rain at most locations except the higher
mountains between Today and Thursday. A brief break period at the
end of the week will be followed by more wet weather this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Next band of precipitation quickly pushing across eastern
Washington. Main concern is the low level temp profile. A warm
front spans from near KALW, northeast toward Escure, Cheney, and
Harrison with a bubble of above freezing air to the south. Along
and northwest of this boundary, expect a wintry mix. Latest KMWH
obs shows freezing rain and this should reach impact I-90 to the
Spokane area through 10 am. The warm air will work its way to the
ground through midday with a transistion to rain expected across
the lower Basin and Spokane area. Although, the HRRR shows the
main brunt of the precipitation leaving the Basin after 21z, and
the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area after 23z. rfox.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A warm front laying from KELN to KMLP at 12Z will move
north today in response to a disturbance moving up from Oregon.
This warm front passage will bring a mix of precipitation with
MVFR and IFR ceilings common at most TAF sites today. A short
period of FZRA is likely at the KGEG area TAF sites probably
between 17Z and 20Z before surface temperatures rise above
freezing. The FZRA threat will be longer duration at KMWH and KEAT
where cold near surface air is deeper...but precipitation will be
spottier and intermittent with a partial rain shadow provided by
the Cascades. KPUW and KLWS are already above freezing this
morning and will remain so through the TAF period for mainly RA
with MVFR or low VFR ceilings. The storm system will move out of
the region tonight...but a warmer low level air mass and melting
snow will promote areas of fog and stratus after 06Z tonight. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 36 33 44 34 45 41 / 90 60 50 30 100 100
Coeur d`Alene 35 32 43 33 44 39 / 90 70 60 50 100 100
Pullman 42 36 46 36 49 42 / 80 70 70 50 80 90
Lewiston 44 39 52 40 54 44 / 80 60 60 40 60 90
Colville 34 31 45 31 45 36 / 90 70 50 30 100 100
Sandpoint 31 31 41 32 42 37 / 100 70 70 60 100 100
Kellogg 36 33 40 34 43 39 / 100 90 100 70 100 100
Moses Lake 37 34 52 35 52 44 / 60 30 20 20 80 90
Wenatchee 34 33 47 35 49 40 / 60 30 20 10 80 90
Omak 33 30 46 31 46 37 / 70 30 20 10 100 100
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until Noon PST today for Coeur d`Alene
Area.
Winter Storm Warning until Noon PST today for Central Panhandle
Mountains-Northern Panhandle.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until Noon PST today for Moses Lake Area-
Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-
Wenatchee Area.
Winter Storm Warning until Noon PST today for Northeast
Mountains.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for East
Slopes Northern Cascades.
&&
$$
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF A BAND OF SNOW IS ALREADY APPROACHING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ALONG A MID-LEVEL FGEN/WARM ADVECTION ZONE. DISTANCE/SPEED TOOL
HAS THIS BAND OF SNOW MOVING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN
23-00Z THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SNOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST...SNOW
TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE ESE TO THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING AND REACH LAKE MICHIGAN BY
12Z TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE WAVES...FORCING IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...700-500MB FGEN AND WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PUSH THE AREA
OF SNOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW THIS WILL
EVOLVE...BUT SOME MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY AREA OF SNOW MAY ALSO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA THIS EVENING ALONG THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THEN MERGE WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF
SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...THINK ALL
AREAS WILL SEE DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THOUGH PIN POINTING
WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL IS RATHER DIFFICULT DUE TO THE
UNORGANIZED FORCING. ADDING TO THE COMPLEXITY IS A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGH END SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. BEST
GUESS IS NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...FROM TOMAHAWK
TO STURGEON BAY WHERE HAVE ABOUT 2 INCHES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY...AND BE WINDING DOWN
TOWARDS THE START OF THE MORNING COMMUTE...SO DO NOT PLAN ON ANY
ADVISORIES. BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT SLICK ROADS TONIGHT
AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST. BUT EVEN
AFTER THIS TIME...THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE OVERHEAD
AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE LEFTOVER
THROUGH 700-600MB UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SO DESPITE THE
SHORTWAVES PULLING OUT...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL REACH UP TO A
HALF INCH...AND MUCH OF THAT WILL COME EARLY IN THE MORNING. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THERE WARMING TREND
AND REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
CONTINUED NEAR ZONAL-PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN U.S.
THIS PERIOD. SPREAD SEEN IN MODELS/ENSEMBLES LATER PERIODS WITH HOW
HANDLE ENERGY COMING INTO PACIFIC COAST AND EFFECTS ON UPPER RIDGE.
TRENDS ARE FOR TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO NORMS THROUGH PERIOD WITH
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL BLEND FOR NEXT MONDAY SHOWING UPPER 30S
ATTM. A REAL CONTRAST FROM TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AT ISSUE AGAIN TUE NIGHT AS WEAK WAVE MOVES
THROUGH FLOW. WAA SETS UP OVER BAROCLINIC ZONE TO BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN HALF OF WI. WEAK FGEN/JET SUPPORT...PASSES MAINLY SOUTH
OF CWA. AGAIN MODELS TRENDING TOWARD DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HAVE TIGHTENED GRADIENT UP FOR SNOW-NO SNOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO NORTHERN WI. KEPT CHANCE POPS
OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
NEXT ISSUE WITH UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
FEATURE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CANADA. MODELS SHOWING A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH FOCUS OF PCPN CHANCES THU OVER NORTHWEST WI AND
NORTHEAST MN...MOVING INTO CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THOUGH...AHEAD OF A
WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW.
MOST OF THE SNOW WILL END EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT
FLURRIES AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1114 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014
.UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN...MAINLY SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN MILWAUKEE TO KENOSHA...AND
INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF RACINE AND KENOSHA
COUNTIES. MODERATE SNOW WITH 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES SHIFTING INTO
OAK CREEK AND SOUTH MILWAUKEE...WITH MORE OFFSHORE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THESE WERE SHIFTING WEST AROUND 10 MPH.
FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES...ALONG WITH PROLONGED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE...HAVE HELPED THIS BAND PERSIST. NONE OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS BAND. SYNOPTIC MODELS
AND HRRR DID SHOW SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHIFTING BACK OVER THE WATER
AND OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 19Z OR SO.
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND THAT TIME...THEN TAPER OFF
QUICKLY AFTERWARDS. A QUICK 1/2 INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN ANY OF
THE MODERATE SNOW BANDS...WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ELSEWHERE IN
THIS AREA. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE QUIET WEATHER WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES
AT OR BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KENOSHA
UNTIL 19Z...AND PERHAPS MILWAUKEE AS WELL. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF
SNOW BAND WILL MAKE IT INTO MILWAUKEE. IF IT DOES...A QUICK 1/2
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. KENOSHA SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
1/2 INCH AS WELL.
CEILINGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WAUKESHA AND MADISON WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING WEST BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS EVENING...AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO MADISON AROUND
06Z TUESDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z TUESDAY.
THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD LINGER FOR A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD BEFORE
ENDING. SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AROUND 1/10 OF AN INCH
PER HOUR. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED.
VISITILITIES WILL BE AROUND ALTERNATE MINIMUMS...WITH CEILINGS
AROUND OR ABOVE 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING
TUESDAY...LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...NEARSHORE WATERS REMAINS ICE COVERED...AS WELL AS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OPEN WATERS. THUS...ANY WAVE ACTION WILL BE
LIMITED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
WINDS HAVE NOT QUITE DECOUPLED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH CONTINUED FALLING TEMPERATURES THE
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL BRING WIND CHILLS TO 15 TO 25 BELOW.
DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD END ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
9 AM CST.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.
700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHILE 850
MB LEVELS REMAIN RATHER COLD. WEAK TO MODERATE 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION...WITH THE STRONGER VALUES ACROSS THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. 700 MB LAYERS SATURATE...BUT 925 AND 850 MB REMAIN RATHER
DRY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWER TO 5 TO 10 MB ON THE 285
AND 290 KELVIN ISENTROPIC LAYERS WITH MODERATE LIFT. WILL THEREFORE
MENTION A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE DELLS...FOND DU LAC...AND SHEBOYGAN. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LESS THAN AN INCH.
SHOULD SEE SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 10 TO 15
DEGREE FAHRENHEIT RANGE. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...WITH A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP OVER SOUTHERN MN/SOUTHERN WI WILL LIKELY
BRING A QUICK-HITTING INCH OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN WI MAINLY TUESDAY
EVENING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TUE
NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO INCREASED POPS
A LITTLE. THE 00Z NAM WAS A CLEAR OUTLIER WITH QPF FOR THE TUE-WED
SYSTEMS...BUT THE 06Z NAM HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
AND 00Z GFS MODELS. WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS AND ECMWF ARE HANGING ON
TO HIGHER 1000-850MB RH THROUGH THE DAY WED. WHILE THE MAIN SYSTEM
SNOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...ANY LOW CLOUDS
COULD STILL PRODUCE FLURRIES OVER SOUTHERN WI.
LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ALLOW FOR
A DRY PERIOD. RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE WED NIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
CLOUDS CAN CLEAR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARMER MIN TEMPS THAN ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST. TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY THU WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH WI THU NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TIMING OF PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN WI...SO TOOK CONSENSUS APPROACH. TEMPS ALOFT AND AT THE
GROUND WILL APPROACH OR EVEN RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING FRI AFTERNOON.
THUS KEPT A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE MENTION FOR THAT PERIOD.
THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH SNOW SET
UP ACROSS NORTHERN IL. A CHANGE IN THE MODELS COULD BRING THE
CHANCE OF SNOW BACK INTO SOUTHERN WI.
IF SOUTHERN WI WEATHER IS DRY NEXT WEEKEND IT MEANS WE ARE ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT AND OUR MAX TEMPS WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SOME HIGH/MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. LIGHT
SNOW EXPECTED TO FALL WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
MADISON AND MILWAUKEE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS REMAIN ICE COVERED.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC