Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/02/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
530 AM MST FRI FEB 28 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A WELL DEFINED PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BEGINNING IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA DURING THE
MORNING...THEN SPREADING INTO ARIZONA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DRY
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VERY WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES TO OCCLUDE AS OF 09Z. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY
FALLING WEST OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AS A SUBSTANTIAL ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOVES ONSHORE. THE NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE 700-850MB WINDS IS CERTAINLY
HELPING MATTERS AS WELL WITH WINDS ANALYZED AROUND 60-70KTS. WHILE
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY AT THE MOMENT...ITS SIMPLY A MATTER
OF TIME BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATES SUFFICIENTLY AND
PRECIPITATION BEGINS. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY REVEALS APPROXIMATELY 0.5
INCH PWATS ACROSS THE LOWER AZ DESERTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER VALUES /AROUND
1.25 INCHES/ OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST...AND APPROXIMATELY 1.8 INCHES
A BIT FARTHER WEST. SUFFICE TO SAY THE ATMOSPHERE HAS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...ONLY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IT WILL BE
IMPORTED OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND THE BAJA SPINE AND INTO THE
LOWER AZ DESERTS.
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING...NAM...HRRR...LOCAL
WRFS...AND EVEN THE MORE COARSE GUIDANCE ARE ON BOARD. WHILE A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AROUND EL CENTRO AND BLYTHE
AND CERTAINLY ACROSS JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...ACTIVITY SHOULD
PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVERHEAD
AND FILLS IN WITH THE INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE PRESENCE OF
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE
WILL ALSO HELP THINGS ALONG LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.
ARGUABLY...LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIAS BUSIEST PERIOD DURING THIS ENTIRE EVENT. POPS
WERE ALREADY AT OR NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TODAY AND I ONLY MADE VERY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS WELL...GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES...THIS ALSO MATCHES SPCS DAY
1 GENERAL THUNDER OUTLINE...BUT I STILL THINK WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK AND THE
USUALLY WINDY I-8 CORRIDOR OF IMPERIAL COUNTY. GOING WITH A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF AREAS
DOWNWIND OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE SPARED THE STRONGEST
WINDS.
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS DECIDING WHEN PRECIP WILL
BEGIN ACROSS THE LOWER AZ DESERTS AND AROUND THE PHOENIX AREA. WHILE
TRYING NOT TO FOCUS TOO CLOSELY ON ONE OR TWO DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS...ALL THE 00Z HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM12...4KM
NAM...LOCAL WRFS...NSSL WRF...HRRR...AND RAP INDICATE PRECIP WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER 00Z AROUND THE PHOENIX AREA. PER THEIR
SOLUTIONS...PRECIP WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX FIRST...THEN GRADUALLY BACKFILL OVER THE METRO AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS IMPORTED INTO THE AREA. FOR BETTER OR WORSE...THIS
BACKFILLING DOESNT TAKE PLACE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z SATURDAY...ABOUT
12 HRS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT WILL BE OVERHEAD LATE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH
NEARLY 50KT SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS AND PWATS AROUND 1.2-1.3
INCHES...IM NOT CONVINCED IT WILL STAY DRY ALL THE WAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. I MADE SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
ACROSS THE DESERTS FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BUT VALUES ARE STILL
RUNNING IN THE 80-90 PERCENT RANGE. THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX IS STILL AT 100 PERCENT AS THEY SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO SEE
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OF MLCAPE DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OF 0-1KM
0-3KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR. CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT THERE WILL INDEED
BE THUNDER AROUND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH QUITE A BIT
OF CLOUD COVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE STILL SEEMS UNLIKELY. PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS THAT ARE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...BUT THATS ABOUT
IT. ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA I THINK THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY BUT ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE ON THE 295-310K SURFACES STARTS
BECOMING EVIDENT AS EARLY AS 12-18Z SATURDAY. ACTIVITY MAY END UP
BEING FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE THAT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...HESITANT TO REDUCE POPS TOO
MUCH.
THE 1.2 INCH PWAT AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX
SATURDAY EVENING AND A DRYING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA /EXCLUDING GILA CO/ DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WELL EAST
OF PHOENIX. HELD ONTO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF POPS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT FOR THE DESERTS...RAINFALL SHOULD
BE PRETTY MUCH OVER AND DONE WITH. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS? A BLEND OF WPC PROVIDED QPF AND GFS/EUROPEAN QPF
YIELDS ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AROUND
0.75 TO 1 INCHES AROUND THE PHOENIX AREA...AND UPWARDS OF 1.5 EAST
OF PHOENIX. NATURALLY...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS BUT OVERALL THESE VALUES FIT IN WELL WITH
CIPS ANALOGS. WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCHES BUT
NUISANCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND/OR NORMALLY DRY WASHES
CANT BE RULED OUT. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL REMAINS LIMITED AS THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPORT WARM SOUTHERLY AIR INTO THE REGION
UNTIL SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 6500FT ON SUNDAY AS
PRECIP IS DRAWING TO A CLOSE. ASIDE FROM THE TOPS OF THE VERY
HIGHEST PEAKS EAST OF PHOENIX...SNOWFALL APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY.
THE WEATHER TURNS MUCH MUCH QUIETER FROM MONDAY ONWARD AS WEAK ZONAL
FLOW TRANSITIONS INTO WEAK RIDGING BY MID WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS A
LOCK FROM MONDAY ONWARD ALONG WITH STEADILY INCREASING TEMPS
EVENTUALLY REACHING THE LOWER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WITH PROLONGED DIRECTIONS OF
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
ANTICIPATE GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AFTER 22Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 22Z AND BECOME MUCH MORE NUMEROUS
AFTER 03Z. ACCORDINGLY...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN DURING THE DAY WITH
BASES GETTING NEAR 6 KFT MSL BY 00Z AND QUITE POSSIBLY GETTING BELOW
5 KFT AFTER 03Z.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS OF 12Z AND PRODUCING
AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD CIGS OF 6-8 KFT MSL
THROUGH 21Z...LOCALLY LOWER...BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST. STRONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS COMMON
AFTER 18Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z SATURDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THERE WILL
BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE ELEVATED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A WARMING TREND
ALONG WITH LESS WIND. HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE THOUGH OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL REMAIN GOOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
CAZ033.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ030.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
251 AM MST FRI FEB 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WELL DEFINED PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BEGINNING IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA DURING THE
MORNING...THEN SPREADING INTO ARIZONA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DRY
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VERY WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES TO OCCLUDE AS OF 09Z. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY
FALLING WEST OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AS A SUBSTANTIAL ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOVES ONSHORE. THE NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE 700-850MB WINDS IS CERTAINLY
HELPING MATTERS AS WELL WITH WINDS ANALYZED AROUND 60-70KTS. WHILE
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY AT THE MOMENT...ITS SIMPLY A MATTER
OF TIME BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATES SUFFICIENTLY AND
PRECIPITATION BEGINS. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY REVEALS APPROXIMATELY 0.5
INCH PWATS ACROSS THE LOWER AZ DESERTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER VALUES /AROUND
1.25 INCHES/ OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST...AND APPROXIMATELY 1.8 INCHES
A BIT FARTHER WEST. SUFFICE TO SAY THE ATMOSPHERE HAS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...ONLY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IT WILL BE
IMPORTED OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND THE BAJA SPINE AND INTO THE
LOWER AZ DESERTS.
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING...NAM...HRRR...LOCAL
WRFS...AND EVEN THE MORE COARSE GUIDANCE ARE ON BOARD. WHILE A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AROUND EL CENTRO AND BLYTHE
AND CERTAINLY ACROSS JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...ACTIVITY SHOULD
PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVERHEAD
AND FILLS IN WITH THE INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE PRESENCE OF
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE
WILL ALSO HELP THINGS ALONG LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.
ARGUABLY...LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIAS BUSIEST PERIOD DURING THIS ENTIRE EVENT. POPS
WERE ALREADY AT OR NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TODAY AND I ONLY MADE VERY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS WELL...GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES...THIS ALSO MATCHES SPCS DAY
1 GENERAL THUNDER OUTLINE...BUT I STILL THINK WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK AND THE
USUALLY WINDY I-8 CORRIDOR OF IMPERIAL COUNTY. GOING WITH A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF AREAS
DOWNWIND OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE SPARED THE STRONGEST
WINDS.
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS DECIDING WHEN PRECIP WILL
BEGIN ACROSS THE LOWER AZ DESERTS AND AROUND THE PHOENIX AREA. WHILE
TRYING NOT TO FOCUS TOO CLOSELY ON ONE OR TWO DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS...ALL THE 00Z HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM12...4KM
NAM...LOCAL WRFS...NSSL WRF...HRRR...AND RAP INDICATE PRECIP WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER 00Z AROUND THE PHOENIX AREA. PER THEIR
SOLUTIONS...PRECIP WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX FIRST...THEN GRADUALLY BACKFILL OVER THE METRO AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS IMPORTED INTO THE AREA. FOR BETTER OR WORSE...THIS
BACKFILLING DOESNT TAKE PLACE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z SATURDAY...ABOUT
12 HRS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT WILL BE OVERHEAD LATE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH
NEARLY 50KT SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS AND PWATS AROUND 1.2-1.3
INCHES...IM NOT CONVINCED IT WILL STAY DRY ALL THE WAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. I MADE SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
ACROSS THE DESERTS FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BUT VALUES ARE STILL
RUNNING IN THE 80-90 PERCENT RANGE. THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX IS STILL AT 100 PERCENT AS THEY SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO SEE
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OF MLCAPE DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OF 0-1KM
0-3KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR. CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT THERE WILL INDEED
BE THUNDER AROUND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH QUITE A BIT
OF CLOUD COVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE STILL SEEMS UNLIKELY. PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS THAT ARE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...BUT THATS ABOUT
IT. ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA I THINK THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY BUT ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE ON THE 295-310K SURFACES STARTS
BECOMING EVIDENT AS EARLY AS 12-18Z SATURDAY. ACTIVITY MAY END UP
BEING FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE THAT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...HESITANT TO REDUCE POPS TOO
MUCH.
THE 1.2 INCH PWAT AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX
SATURDAY EVENING AND A DRYING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA /EXCLUDING GILA CO/ DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WELL EAST
OF PHOENIX. HELD ONTO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF POPS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT FOR THE DESERTS...RAINFALL SHOULD
BE PRETTY MUCH OVER AND DONE WITH. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS? A BLEND OF WPC PROVIDED QPF AND GFS/EUROPEAN QPF
YIELDS ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AROUND
0.75 TO 1 INCHES AROUND THE PHOENIX AREA...AND UPWARDS OF 1.5 EAST
OF PHOENIX. NATURALLY...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS BUT OVERALL THESE VALUES FIT IN WELL WITH
CIPS ANALOGS. WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCHES BUT
NUISANCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND/OR NORMALLY DRY WASHES
CANT BE RULED OUT. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL REMAINS LIMITED AS THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPORT WARM SOUTHERLY AIR INTO THE REGION
UNTIL SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 6500FT ON SUNDAY AS
PRECIP IS DRAWING TO A CLOSE. ASIDE FROM THE TOPS OF THE VERY
HIGHEST PEAKS EAST OF PHOENIX...SNOWFALL APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY.
THE WEATHER TURNS MUCH MUCH QUIETER FROM MONDAY ONWARD AS WEAK ZONAL
FLOW TRANSITIONS INTO WEAK RIDGING BY MID WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS A
LOCK FROM MONDAY ONWARD ALONG WITH STEADILY INCREASING TEMPS
EVENTUALLY REACHING THE LOWER 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS
DEVELOPING AOA 10K FT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWERING BELOW 8K FT
BY FRIDAY EVENING AS SHOWERS DEVELOP. FEEL COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z WILL
BE SPARSE...AND ONLY HAVE A VCSH MENTION. WHILE AN ISOLD TS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...CHANCES ARE FAR TOO LOW TO MENTION. SFC WINDS WILL SWITCH
TO EASTERLY TONIGHT...THEN MAY OBTAIN A PROLONGED SLY CROSS WIND
TRAJECTORY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT APPEARS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 14KT.
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CIGS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT...FALLING TO A 7K-8K FT LEVEL
BY FRIDAY MORNING AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT SERN
CALIFORNIA. COVERAGE APPEARS TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE A PREVAILING
GROUP DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WITH BETTER COVERAGE MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE AN ISOLD TS
MAY BE POSSIBLE...CHANCES ARE FAR TOO LOW TO MENTION. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING PREVAILING SFC WIND DIRECTIONS...AS COVERAGE
AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS MAY CREATE RAPIDLY SHIFTING WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL...PREVAILING S/E WINDS WOULD BE PREFERRED IN
THE MORNING...BECOMING S/W IN THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER EAST OF
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THAN OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE VALLEY FLOORS
SATURDAY WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AT RIDGETOPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE ELEVATED.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITIES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LESS WIND.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
CAZ033.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ030.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1235 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY...SLOWLY RETREATING TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. SNOW IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE STORM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS THE COLD. TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF MORE
RAPIDLY THAN FORECAST...SO HAVE UPDATED BLENDING IN HRRR 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN LOWERING LOWS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
REGION. LOWS GENERALLY FROM -5 TO 0 ACROSS FAR NW ZONES...AND IN
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.
THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS
OVERNIGHT...YIELDS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO FALL TO -5 TO -10
FOR CITY AND COAST...AND -10 TO -15 ACROSS THE INTERIOR. COULD SEE
SOME POCKETS ACROSS ORANGE/PUTNAM/N FAIRFIELD COUNTY THAT COULD
GET JUST BELOW -15...BUT WITH LESS THAN 1/2 OF ZONE EXPECTED TO
SEE THIS...WILL NOT ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT
SPS ADDRESSES WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING STORM TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL RESULT IN
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH TO GET
STARTED....THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH MOVING
CLOSER TO THE AREA.
CONTINUED CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AS DEEP LAYERED TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW DURING THIS TIME...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES
BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY 20
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE...STRUGGLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKENING DURING THE
DAY...ALLOWING SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION. IF HIGH CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE...LOWS HAVE POTENTIAL TO
DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS OF LI.
ELSEWHERE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH TEENS IN THE
URBAN CENTERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER 1030S HI BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE N ATLANTIC SAT. THIS BRINGS
RETURN FLOW TO THE CWA AND WARMER TEMPS. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM THE SW SHOULD PRODUCE CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. SST/S MAINLY IN THE
MID 30S...SO THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT RESULT IN A BIG WARM UP NEAR
THE COASTS.
A MID 1040S HI WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NRN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL SERVE TO DRIVE THIS COLD AIRMASS INTO THE
CWA. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE LINED UP WITH THIS FEATURE AT
H5...PRODUCING A NARROW SPREAD IN THE DETERMINISTIC FCST SUN-MON.
AS A RESULT...THE CONSENSUS OF THESE TWO OPERATIONAL MODELS WAS
FOLLOWED FOR THE FCST.
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE CWA ON SUN. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS INDICATE ADDED MOISTURE ENTRAINED INTO THE
CIRCULATION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...POCKETS OF LGT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...ARE FCST FOR SUN IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH...PARTICULARLY WITH THE
LGT SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK LIFT.
AS THE JET LINES UP N OF THE CWA SUN NIGHT AND MON...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY SFC FRONT BECOMES ESTABLISHED S OF THE CWA. THIS
ALIGNMENT PUTS THE CWA IN THE CONVERGENT ZONE...WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ENHANCING LIFT. THIS SETUP WOULD PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SNOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
HWO UPDATED TO INCLUDE 8 INCH OR MORE POTENTIAL.
THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WOULD BRING IN N TO NE WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENT...FEEDING THE COLD AIR. A BLEND OF THE PURE GFS AND ECMWF
MODEL DATA GIVES TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS MON...AND TEMPS FROM
ZERO INTO THE LOWER TEENS MON NIGHT. THIS DATA WAS ACCEPTED FOR
THE FCST WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT GUIDANCE LIKELY INFLUENCED BY
CLIMATOLOGY.
ANY DEVIATION TO THIS TRACK COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
PRECIPITATION IF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP S...OR TO MORE RAIN
AND/OR ICY MIX IF IT SETS UP FURTHER N.
THE CANADIAN HI THEN SETS UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
WED...KEEPING THE CWA DRY. TEMPS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS.
GUSTY W-NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING DIMINISHES AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH
OVERHEAD.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER DEVELOPING IN
LIGHT SNOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
.SUN NIGHT-MON-NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SNOW.
.TUE...SUB VFR IN SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS OVER THE NON-OCEAN ZONES HAVE FALLEN TO SCA LEVELS...SO
HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING THERE AND REPLACED WITH AN SCA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
GALE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO SCA FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT.
WILL NEED TO PUT UP ON SCA ON AT LEAST THE EASTERN 2 OCEAN ZONES
TO REPLACE THE GALES AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.
LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY FOR THIS EVENING ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND WATERS DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND
HIGHS SEAS.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW WATER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS FRI MORNING...PARTICULARLY EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS...WILL SUBSIDE BY AFTERNOON. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN NE WINDS
INCREASE SUN NIGHT WITH AT LEAST SCA LEVEL WINDS MON INTO TUE ON
N TO NE FLOW. GALES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE ON WED WITH HI PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF EXISTS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. AROUND AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH STRONG WNW FLOW AND ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR
THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE TONIGHT AS TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL BE AROUND 2
TO 2 1/2 FT BELOW MLLW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...FEBRUARY 28 AND SATURDAY MARCH 1...AND
THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND FORECASTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.
FRIDAY
LOW TEMPERATURE
SITE........RECORD/YEAR SET...FORECAST LOW
NEWARK..........0/1934............3
BRIDGEPORT.....10/1950............6
CENTRAL PARK....5/1934............6
LAGUARDIA......14/1994............7
KENNEDY........15/1950............7
ISLIP..........13/1994............8
HIGH TEMPERATURE
SITE........RECORD LOW MAX/YEAR SET...FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK............24/1934.................18
BRIDGEPORT........27/1980.................19
CENTRAL PARK......21/1875.................18
LAGUARDIA.........29/2008.................20
KENNEDY...........30/1980,2008............19
ISLIP.............28/1994,2008............19
SATURDAY
SITE........RECORD LOW/YEAR SET...FORECAST LOW
NEWARK..........7/1980............13
BRIDGEPORT......6/1980............9
CENTRAL PARK....5/1884............16
LAGUARDIA.......9/1980............18
KENNEDY.........8/1980............14
ISLIP..........14/1994............8
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ338-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ330-335-340.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-
350-353-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/MALOIT/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1206 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY...SLOWLY RETREATING TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. SNOW IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE STORM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS THE COLD. TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF MORE
RAPIDLY THAN FORECAST...SO HAVE UPDATED BLENDING IN HRRR 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN LOWERING LOWS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
REGION. LOWS GENERALLY FROM -5 TO 0 ACROSS FAR NW ZONES...AND IN
THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.
THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS
OVERNIGHT...YIELDS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO FALL TO -5 TO -10
FOR CITY AND COAST...AND -10 TO -15 ACROSS THE INTERIOR. COULD SEE
SOME POCKETS ACROSS ORANGE/PUTNAM/N FAIRFIELD COUNTY THAT COULD
GET JUST BELOW -15...BUT WITH LESS THAN 1/2 OF ZONE EXPECTED TO
SEE THIS...WILL NOT ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. CURRENT
SPS ADDRESSES WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING STORM TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL RESULT IN
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH TO GET
STARTED....THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH MOVING
CLOSER TO THE AREA.
CONTINUED CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AS DEEP LAYERED TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW DURING THIS TIME...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES
BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY 20
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE...STRUGGLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKENING DURING THE
DAY...ALLOWING SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION. IF HIGH CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE...LOWS HAVE POTENTIAL TO
DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS OF LI.
ELSEWHERE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH TEENS IN THE
URBAN CENTERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER 1030S HI BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE N ATLANTIC SAT. THIS BRINGS
RETURN FLOW TO THE CWA AND WARMER TEMPS. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM THE SW SHOULD PRODUCE CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. SST/S MAINLY IN THE
MID 30S...SO THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT RESULT IN A BIG WARM UP NEAR
THE COASTS.
A MID 1040S HI WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NRN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL SERVE TO DRIVE THIS COLD AIRMASS INTO THE
CWA. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE LINED UP WITH THIS FEATURE AT
H5...PRODUCING A NARROW SPREAD IN THE DETERMINISTIC FCST SUN-MON.
AS A RESULT...THE CONSENSUS OF THESE TWO OPERATIONAL MODELS WAS
FOLLOWED FOR THE FCST.
THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE CWA ON SUN. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS INDICATE ADDED MOISTURE ENTRAINED INTO THE
CIRCULATION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...POCKETS OF LGT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...ARE FCST FOR SUN IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH...PARTICULARLY WITH THE
LGT SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK LIFT.
AS THE JET LINES UP N OF THE CWA SUN NIGHT AND MON...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY SFC FRONT BECOMES ESTABLISHED S OF THE CWA. THIS
ALIGNMENT PUTS THE CWA IN THE CONVERGENT ZONE...WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ENHANCING LIFT. THIS SETUP WOULD PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SNOW LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
HWO UPDATED TO INCLUDE 8 INCH OR MORE POTENTIAL.
THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WOULD BRING IN N TO NE WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENT...FEEDING THE COLD AIR. A BLEND OF THE PURE GFS AND ECMWF
MODEL DATA GIVES TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS MON...AND TEMPS FROM
ZERO INTO THE LOWER TEENS MON NIGHT. THIS DATA WAS ACCEPTED FOR
THE FCST WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT GUIDANCE LIKELY INFLUENCED BY
CLIMATOLOGY.
ANY DEVIATION TO THIS TRACK COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
PRECIPITATION IF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP S...OR TO MORE RAIN
AND/OR ICY MIX IF IT SETS UP FURTHER N.
THE CANADIAN HI THEN SETS UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
WED...KEEPING THE CWA DRY. TEMPS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS.
STRONGEST W-NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT WILL BE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THEN GRADUALLY FALL OFF THROUGH
DAYBREAK.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
.SAT-SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AFTERNOON OR SAT NIGHT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LIGHT SW
FLOW.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
.SUN NIGHT-MON-NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SNOW. WINTRY MIX
POSSIBLE AT THE COASTS.
.TUE...SUB VFR IN SNOW POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS OVER THE NON-OCEAN ZONES HAVE FALLEN TO SCA LEVELS...SO
HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING THERE AND REPLACED WITH AN SCA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
GALE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO SCA FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT.
WILL NEED TO PUT UP ON SCA ON AT LEAST THE EASTERN 2 OCEAN ZONES
TO REPLACE THE GALES AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.
LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY FOR THIS EVENING ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND WATERS DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND
HIGHS SEAS.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW WATER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS FRI MORNING...PARTICULARLY EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS...WILL SUBSIDE BY AFTERNOON. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN NE WINDS
INCREASE SUN NIGHT WITH AT LEAST SCA LEVEL WINDS MON INTO TUE ON
N TO NE FLOW. GALES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE ON WED WITH HI PRES BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF EXISTS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. AROUND AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH STRONG WNW FLOW AND ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR
THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE TONIGHT AS TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL BE AROUND 2
TO 2 1/2 FT BELOW MLLW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...FEBRUARY 28 AND SATURDAY MARCH 1...AND
THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND FORECASTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.
FRIDAY
LOW TEMPERATURE
SITE........RECORD/YEAR SET...FORECAST LOW
NEWARK..........0/1934............3
BRIDGEPORT.....10/1950............6
CENTRAL PARK....5/1934............6
LAGUARDIA......14/1994............7
KENNEDY........15/1950............7
ISLIP..........13/1994............8
HIGH TEMPERATURE
SITE........RECORD LOW MAX/YEAR SET...FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK............24/1934.................18
BRIDGEPORT........27/1980.................19
CENTRAL PARK......21/1875.................18
LAGUARDIA.........29/2008.................20
KENNEDY...........30/1980,2008............19
ISLIP.............28/1994,2008............19
SATURDAY
SITE........RECORD LOW/YEAR SET...FORECAST LOW
NEWARK..........7/1980............13
BRIDGEPORT......6/1980............9
CENTRAL PARK....5/1884............16
LAGUARDIA.......9/1980............18
KENNEDY.........8/1980............14
ISLIP..........14/1994............8
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ338-345-350-
353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-340.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-350-
353-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MALOIT/NV/JMC
HYDROLOGY...NV/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
929 PM EST Sat Mar 1 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Overnight, surface high pressure will settle over the region as an
upper ridge slides by aloft. The high pressure, coupled with dry
middle and upper layers of the atmosphere and a gradually
moistening boundary layer, will set the stage for some fog across
the region overnight. Best chance of widespread fog will be over
the eastern zones, directly under the center of the surface ridge.
At this time, with dewpoints still in the lower 40s, do not expect
significant dense fog, so have dropped that wording from the
forecast. Otherwise, forecast is on track, with low temperatures
in the mid 40s expected across the forecast area.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Monday]...VFR is expected everywhere until around
09z. The HRRR and local hi-res guidance show IFR-LIFR conditions
developing overnight along the coast at ECP and from the east at
VLD, with MVFR conditions possible tonight at TLH and ABY.
Conditions should begin to improve to VFR after daybreak and
remain VFR for the rest of the period. Calm to light winds will
become SSW at less than 10 knots.
&&
.Prev Discussion [304 PM EST]...
.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Deep layer ridging will hold through Sunday, providing us with
another dry afternoon. The only difference is that tomorrow should
be several degrees warmer than this afternoon. Away from the
coast, expect most locations to climb into the middle and upper
70s, with near 80 degrees expected across the southeast Big Bend
of Florida. Nearer to the coast, expect a slightly cooler
afternoon, with temps peaking in the upper 60s.
Sunday night through Monday, a shortwave trough will move through
the Southeast, dragging a cold front through the area on Monday.
The associated surface low and weak LLJ will be pulling out of the
local area through the day, thereby weakening the low-level
convergence and wind field. Additionally, the ECMWF and NAM are in
rather decent agreement that mid-level dry air will quickly
overspread the Tri-State area as the front is progressing through,
effectively capping any deep, moist convection. Thus, severe
weather is not anticipated at this time. Further, the intensity
and coverage of rain should also wane through the day. Therefore,
expect average rainfall amounts to be near a half of an inch west
of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee Rivers, and generally
remaining below a quarter of an inch elsewhere.
Expect a decent temperature gradient both Monday and Monday night
across the region. High will range from near 80 degrees across the
southeast Big Bend, to the mid 60s across southeast Alabama.
Overnight, a solid push of CAA will drop temperatures into the mid
30s across Alabama, while lows will hover near 50 degrees to the
southeast in the immediate wake of the front.
.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The main concern in the extended period comes on Thursday as a
potent shortwave carves through the northern Gulf, resulting in
rather significant Gulf cyclogenesis. This forecast will favor the
12z ECMWF as it has held a much steadier forecast over the past
couple of days, and is also supported by the CMC. The surface low-
track, as well as the low and deep layer wind profiles are quite
concerning with respected to severe convection. Both the ECMWF and
the CMC, depict a 50+ KT LLJ nosing right up Apalachee Bay.
Further, a strong mid-level jet max raises deep layer shear values
over 60 knots. However, as impressive as that is, both the ECMWF
and CMC depict enough isentropic rain ahead of the dynamic system,
to effectively cut off any chance of surface based storms.
Nonetheless, with considerable differences between the GFS and
ECMWF, the forecast remains highly uncertain and with such
impressive wind fields, all interests should pay close attention
to forecast changes as the system draws nearer.
.Marine...
Low winds and seas will continue until Monday when a cold front
crosses our Gulf waters increasing winds to cautionary levels.
Winds and seas will once again subside through mid-week, until an
area of low pressure may bring a substantial increase late next
week.
.Fire Weather...
Minimum inland RH this afternoon will drop to around 30 percent with
ERC and 20 foot winds also below critical levels. The airmass will
begin to moisten up on Sunday and more so on Monday associated with
the next cold frontal passage. Expect elevated transport winds and
dispersions on Monday mainly for the inland Big Bend and adjacent
GA counties. In the wake of the front...the airmass will modestly
dry out but rain chances again increase Wednesday through Thursday
Eve. Red flag levels are not expected through the upcoming work
week.
.Hydrology...
The Apalachicola River at Blountstown will drop below flood early
this evening. Otherwise there are no concerns on area rivers through
the early part of next week.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 44 76 50 75 42 / 0 0 0 30 20
Panama City 50 65 59 66 42 / 0 0 10 40 20
Dothan 45 77 56 68 36 / 0 0 10 70 10
Albany 45 77 55 70 40 / 0 0 0 40 20
Valdosta 46 77 50 76 43 / 0 0 0 40 30
Cross City 45 78 49 77 50 / 0 0 0 20 20
Apalachicola 49 65 59 69 45 / 0 0 0 30 20
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
928 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT WITH WARMER TEMPS...
.UPDATE...
A LOW STRATUS BANK CONTINUED TO IMPACT DUVAL COUNTY AND PORTIONS
OF NASSAU AND ST JOHNS...WITH A SLOW WSW DRIFT TOWARD CLAY AND
PUTNAM COUNTIES. THE HRRR (RAPID REFRESH) MODEL HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE EVOLUTION OF STRATUS OVER LAND THIS EVENING...WITH EROSION
OF THE STRATUS OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS...WHICH DID
TRANSPIRE. VISIBILITIES WERE AS LOW AS 4-5SM NEAR ST
AUGUSTINE...BUT ELSEWHERE VISIBILITIES REMAINED 6SM+ UNDER THE LOW
STRATUS DECK. FARTHER INLAND...CLOUD FREE SKIES PREVAILED WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER INLAND SE GA TO LOW 50S
COAST.
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...EXPECT A EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS DECK
INLAND OVER BOTH NE FL AND SE GA. THE 00Z JAX SOUNDING SHOW AN
ALMOST SATURATED LAYER AROUND 750 FT AGL WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ABOVE IN THE MID LEVELS. STILL LOOKS LIKELY THAT AS STRATUS LAYER
DEVELOPS AND PROGRESSES INLAND AND TEMPS COOL...SATURATION WILL
OCCUR WITH A GRADUALLY LOWERING OF THE STRATUS DECK TO FOG.
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS THINKING WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ADVERTISED AFTER MIDNIGHT INLAND WITH AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
.AVIATION...IFR CIGS OFF THE ATLANTIC AFFECTING JAX AND CRG WILL
REACH VQQ AROUND 03Z. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CIGS AND FOG TO EXPAND ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AS NARR ENSEMBLE INDICATES. GNV AND SSI SHOULD
BECOME IFR AFTER 04Z...WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING UNTIL
AROUND 15Z.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WERE STARTING TO RELAX ALONG THE COAST WITH ENE
WINDS 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. COASTAL OBSERVATION SITES AT
FERNANDINA BEACH AND MAYPORT ADVERTISED 0.5-1 FT ABOVE NORMAL
PREDICTED TIDE LEVELS...AND THESE DEVIATIONS COMBINED WITH
PREDICTED HIGH TIDE LEVELS SUN MORNING STILL YIELD NUMBERS JUST BELOW
MINOR FLOODING CRITERIA...THUS FEEL NO COASTAL FLOOD PRODUCTS ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
RIP CURRENTS: MOD RISK THIS EVENING...LOW RISK SUNDAY AS ENE WINDS
RELAX.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 46 75 51 78 / 0 0 0 30
SSI 53 72 55 76 / 0 10 10 30
JAX 49 76 53 80 / 0 0 0 20
SGJ 54 73 58 78 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 47 78 52 81 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 48 79 53 82 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/ZIBURA/MCALLISTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
235 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2014
...CHAMBER OF COMMERCE TYPE WEEKEND ON THE WAY...
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A NOW RATHER UNAMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. MOST IMPRESSIVE
WEATHER SYSTEM IS A STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME
SPREADING INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA/OREGON. THE OVERALL NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW AS BECOME MUCH MORE ZONAL IN NATURE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER HELPING TO LOCK THE COLDEST AIR FURTHER NORTH THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS. FURTHER SOUTH...VERY BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING
IN WORKING ITS WAY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ONE PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS NOW PASSING EAST OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION. HAVE EVEN SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS
IMPULSE WILL BE PASSING MAINLY TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLUMN MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR HEADS...ITS
PASSAGE SHOULD BE HARMLESS IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. SPEAKING
OF COLUMN MOISTURE...A NEW AIRMASS THROUGH THE TROP COLUMN HAS
ARRIVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THURSDAY MORNING...KTBW SOUNDING
PROFILE WAS QUITE SATURATED WITH A PW OF 1.36". THIS MORNING WE SEE
MUCH LARGER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND PW DOWN TO AROUND 0.55". THE
DRY COLUMN AND OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR LIFT IS
RESULTING IN OUR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE...1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES RIDGES ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL
PENINSULA. THIS RIDGE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD SLOWLY WITH TIME AND
HELP PROVIDE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. IT WAS A COOL START THIS MORNING WITH EVEN SOME
TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH FREEZING UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY...HOWEVER
THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LACK OF CAA HAVE ALLOWED A DECENT DIURNAL
REBOUND. CONDITIONS ARE ALSO QUITE DRY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TAKE CAUTION WITH ANY
TYPE OF BURNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A QUIET PATTERN WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TONIGHT...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLUMN MOISTURE...THE
ONLY INFLUENCE EXPECTED IS PERHAPS A BAND OF HIGHER AND LIKELY
MOSTLY TRANSPARENT CIRRUS PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE DRY COLUMN WILL ALLOW FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...AND DO
EXPECT ANOTHER COOL MORNING...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COOL UP OVER THE
NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES AS THIS PAST MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST
DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
FEW PATCHES OF FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS LEVY
COUNTY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT ANY KIND OF
ADVISORY AS IT STANDS NOW. ELSEWHERE MID/UPPER 40S FOR LOW TEMPS
AROUND SUNRISE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH
LOW/MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND DOWN TOWARD FT MYERS.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO SPEAK OF FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL EXIT QUICKLY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO
RISE THROUGH THE DAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SPREADING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...THESE HEIGHTS WILL
ACTUALLY RIDGE UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE STACKED RIDGING PROVIDES A
PLEASANT AND CONTINUED WARMING PATTERN OVER OUR HEADS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWER/MID 70S NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND MID/UPPER 70S
FURTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 80 IN FT. MYERS.
THE LIGHT GRADIENT AND STRONG TERRESTRIAL HEATING WILL FORCE
AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZES TO TURN THE FLOW ONSHORE AT THE BEACHES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY DROP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY FROM MANATEE COUNTY NORTHWARD. SATURDAY NIGHT
SEES NO FROST CONCERNS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLEST TEMPS IN THE MID 40S WILL BE OVER
LEVY COUNTY RANGING UP TO THE 50S TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHWARD. BY SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL LIKELY
APPROACH OR SURPASS 80 DEGREES UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON
SEA-BREEZES WILL KEEP IT A BIT COOLER ALONG AREA BEACHES...BUT STILL
A VERY PLEASANT DAY. ENJOY AND HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...THEN AROUND THE STRENGTH
OF A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PENINSULA LATE NEXT WEEK. THE EVOLUTION AND MODEL TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AS IT IS A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TRACK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND EARLY MARCH
IS TYPICALLY THE START OF THE FLORIDA SEVERE WEATHER SEASON. GIVEN
THE LACK OF GOOD CONTINUITY AMONGST THE MODELS FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED FORECAST APPROACH.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE IT/S INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE
FLORIDA STRAIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE STALLED FRONT TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
THEN SHOW A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COASTAL REGION THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE WEAKER AND
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BUT STILL SHOWS IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC
FORCING AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS PUSHING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SUGGESTS THAT A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT
OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE
MENTIONED AT SOME POINT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IF MODEL
SOLUTIONS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY
DEVELOPS. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EXIT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST NEXT
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...
28/18-01/18Z: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME CIRRUS
GIVING WAY TO SKC. POSSIBLE PATCHY GROUND FOG VCNTY LAL AND PGD
TOWARD MORNING BUT TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. NW WINDS FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO NE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE...GOING BACK
TO NW JUST BEYOND 01/18Z.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS AND WAVES BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER LAND TO FORCE AFTERNOON
SEA-BREEZES WITH WINDS TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST EACH OF THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL AGAIN SHIFT TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION
EACH NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE FORECAST WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. MANY INLAND AREAS WILL APPROACH OR DROP JUST BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AND NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MET. A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 51 73 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 51 79 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 51 77 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 49 73 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 40 75 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 56 72 61 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
313 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...AND PERSISTS
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED LATER THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN NORTH OF
THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED PARENT HIGH PROPAGATES INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AS EXPECTED...ISENTROPIC ASSENT
HAS REMAINED QUITE WEAK AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE 290K ISO-
SURFACE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLOUDY
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGEST THE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING BREAKING UP A BIT DURING MAXIMUM
HEATING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL BACK AFTER SUNSET AS MIXING
CEASES AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THERE HAS BEEN NO RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED TODAY AND EXPECT THIS
TREND TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION
OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SOME UVM INDUCED BY THE APPROACHING A
SOUTHERN STREAM STREAM SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH DYNAMICS
TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THIS SCENARIO AND ONLY A FEW OF THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANY QPF AT ALL...SO WILL PEAR BACK THE AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SLIGHTLY AND CONFINE THEM MAINLY TO AREAS
BOUNDED BY I-26 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 52.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50
AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 26 IN
CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A H5
SHORTWAVE AND H25 JET PASS ALOFT. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER LVL FORCING
HEAD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT WHILE THE PARENT CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES WELL OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. THE CHANGING PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND LATE AS A MARGINAL DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND CLOUD COVER DIMINISHES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MID LVL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO WARMING SFC TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S OVER MOST LOCATIONS...AND A FEW UPPER 60S
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOW 40S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 40S
NEAR THE COAST.
SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO START OFF THE WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF THE WEDGE ERODE
EARLY BEFORE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS. THE SHIFT IN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO VEER FROM NORTH/NORTHEAST TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THUS FAVORING WARMER TEMPS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS OVER THE REGION WHILE MID LVL RIDGING EXPANDS FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS...HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AWAY FROM THE COAST. DESPITE CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
MONDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A
H5 SHORTWAVE QUICKLY ADVANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW WARM TEMPS AND INCREASES MOISTURE AHEAD OF A
SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/NORTHEAST MONDAY EVENING.
SEVERAL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA WITH LOW AMOUNTS OF QPF. HAVE THEREFORE
MAINTAINED ONLY A 20-40 POP SCHEME THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP BEGINNING INLAND EARLY...THEN GRADUALLY MAKING WAY
TO THE COAST AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATE. WE COULD SEE
GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A 40-50 KT
LOW LVL JET PASSES OVER THE AREA WHILE TEMPS PEAK INTO THE MID
70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HANGS ON AS A WEAK WEDGE WEDNESDAY. THE COOLEST DAY WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 COAST
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE. THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER WAVE WITH THIS SYSTEM
OPEN/PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO CLOSE THE
UPPER LOW OFF...RESULTING IN A SLOWER START TO THE PRECIP...ABOUT
6-12 HOURS...AND A MUCH SLOWER ENDING. IN FACT...THE ECMWF STILL HAS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. HAVE
TRIED TO KEEP CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WHILE TRYING TO
BLEND/AVERAGE THE LATEST SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...HAVE LOW END CHANCE
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TO HIGH END CHANCE THURSDAY. TRENDED
POPS BACK DOWN BY FRIDAY...BUT KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION. THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS
COOL/BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MARGINAL MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
CIGS LOWER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE BECOMES MORE FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED AND ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES. CIGS LOOK TO BOTTOM
OUT AT LOW-END MVFR AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE EVENING...ALTHOUGH
SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE LATEST RAP SUGGEST IFR CIGS COULD
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO DROP
CIGS THAT LOW...BUT IT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN TO VFR BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
INTO THE AREA. VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO SHOWERS ALONG
A PASSING COLD FRONT. CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE TIMING OF THE EVENT DUE TO SEVERAL
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. REPORTS FROM THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR PILOT BOAT AS WELL AS A FEW OF THE C-MAN AND NEARSHORE
BUOYS SUGGEST WINDS ARE NEAR 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WHILE
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COAST AND OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE FAIRLY FREQUENT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN FOR FOR ALL LEGS EXCEPT THE GEORGIA
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT...BUT ALL ZONES FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 5-7 FT OVER
THE ADVISORY AREA TO 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ERODES INLAND ON SUNDAY AND A COASTAL TROUGH
LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE/BUILD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY. WE COULD SEE MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS STRONG
LOW LVL WINDS SHIFT OVER THE WATERS AHEAD/ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW CHANCE OF SEA FOG DEVELOPING ON MONDAY AS
SFC DEWPTS APPROACH THE UPPER 50S OVER COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TRIES TO PINCH BETWEEN A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BUT WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...ELEVATED TIDES WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS WITH HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TIDE LEVELS WILL
COME VERY CLOSE TO 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...BUT THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LEVELS WILL MORE LIKELY PEAK 6.8 TO 6.9
FT MLLW. WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON HOISTING A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY. HOWEVER...SOME SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL STILL
LIKELY OCCUR IN SOME OF THE NORMAL FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON...BUT THE FLOODING WILL BE VERY MINOR AT BEST. THE NEED
FOR AN ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND ITS ISSUANCE CAN NOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
SATURDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE ELEVATED COMING OUT
OF THE PERIGEE THURSDAY...WITH A NEW MOON ON SATURDAY. A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED NORTHEAST
FLOW DURING SOME OF THIS TIME...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ALREADY
ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...COULD RESULT IN SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352-
374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
ST/DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1210 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...AND PERSISTS THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATER THIS
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN NORTH OF THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE AREA WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
STEADILY BUILDING INLAND THIS MORNING WITH SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL
TROUGH BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM.
THE WEDGE WILL BECOME FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PARENT HIGH
SHIFTS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASSENT NOTED ALONG THE 290K ISO-SURFACE WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANDING
STRATOCUMULUS DECK FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN ABOVE 50
NM...SO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER LAND. HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH WITH COOLER CONDITIONS AT
THE BEACHES LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO WEDGE
SOUTHWARD AT THE SURFACE WITH A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERING JUST
OFFSHORE. DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AREA. ELSEWHERE...RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LOW STRATUS SHOULD BECOME RATHER EXTENSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY THE
CLOUD COVER...YIELDING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WELL
INLAND AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE OVERALL UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A SPLIT FLOW. THERE WILL BE A NORTHERN/POLAR
STREAM THAT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM...WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY...
THEN MODERATE TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING THE
EXTREME NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL HANG ON
THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS A WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH LIKELY FORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. OTHER THAN LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE NORTHER AREA...NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW
IN PLACE AND LIGHT WSW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...EXPECT CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 60S
SOUTH BY LATE DAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S MOST AREAS.
SUNDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER FROM LIGHT ENE TO SE BY LATE
DAY. IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN THE MID AND UPPER HEIGHTS...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S. SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A FAST APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
MONDAY...A DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING BY TO THE
NORTH DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE BAND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION.
HAVE KEPT LOW END CHANCE POPS WEST TO SLIGHT CHC POPS EXTREME EAST
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THEN LOW CHANCE POPS MOST OF THE
LAND AREA BY LATE DAY. THINK GIVEN THE DECREASING MOISTURE...WEAK
UPPER FORCING AND FAST MOTION OF THE FRONT...QPF VALUES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. DESPITE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES...LOW LEVEL WSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HANGS ON AS A WEAK WEDGE WEDNESDAY. THE COOLEST DAY WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 COAST
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE. THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER WAVE WITH THIS SYSTEM
OPEN/PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO CLOSE THE
UPPER LOW OFF...RESULTING IN A SLOWER START TO THE PRECIP...ABOUT
6-12 HOURS...AND A MUCH SLOWER ENDING. IN FACT...THE ECMWF STILL HAS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. HAVE
TRIED TO KEEP CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WHILE TRYING TO
BLEND/AVERAGE THE LATEST SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...HAVE LOW END CHANCE
POPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TO HIGH END CHANCE THURSDAY. TRENDED
POPS BACK DOWN BY FRIDAY...BUT KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION. THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE DOMINATED BY A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS
COOL/BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MARGINAL MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
CIGS LOWER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE BECOMES MORE FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED AND ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES. CIGS LOOK TO BOTTOM
OUT AT LOW-END MVFR AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE EVENING...ALTHOUGH
SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE LATEST RAP SUGGEST IFR CIGS COULD
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO DROP
CIGS THAT LOW...BUT IT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN TO VFR BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
INTO THE AREA. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WEAKENING
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LOW
TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
CHANCES FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST FOR
THIS STORM SYSTEM...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER
NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS WILL THEN RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGES SOUTHWARD AND A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST
OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE. THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN WINDS SURGING UPWARDS OF 20 TO
25 KT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE SC WATERS NORTH OF EDISTO AND 15 TO 20
KT MOST ELSEWHERE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS CHARLESTON
HARBOR...THE REMAINING NEAR SHORE SC WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY
AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE PINCHED NORTHEAST FLOW. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND ALL COASTAL
WATERS EXCEPT THE NEAR SHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY....HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...TURNING WINDS
TO SSE LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COULD
SEE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BY MONDAY. ALSO...GIVEN SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SEA FOG
DURING MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TRIES TO PINCH BETWEEN THE WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST BELOW SCA AT THIS
POINT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE ELEVATED
COMING OUT OF THE PERIGEE THURSDAY...WITH A NEW MOON ON SATURDAY.
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED
NORTHEAST FLOW DURING SOME OF THIS TIME...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE ALREADY ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...COULD RESULT IN SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ330-352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
907 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
317 PM CST
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO CENTER ON THE SNOW AMOUNTS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A VERY IMPRESSIVE
MID/UPPER CIRCULATION ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...NOW APPROACHING
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS CLOSED SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG BELT OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES HAS SET UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE VORTEX OVER THE
HUDSON BAY. THIS STRONG FLOW IS EJECTING NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES APPEAR TO BE INDUCING SOME ENHANCED ASCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AS NOTED BY
THE MORE INTENSE AREAS OF SNOWFALL SHOWING UP ON RADAR. ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW HAS MAINLY BEEN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THUS FAR...THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS A
STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE...ASSOCIATED WITH AN 850 MB FRONT...SAGS
SOUTHWARD INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF
SOME DECENT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS SOME GOOD
FRONTOGENETIC INDUCED FORCING FOR ASCENT SETS UP OVER THE AREA. THIS
GOOD FORCING SHOULD ALSO CORRESPOND WITH SOME DECENT MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...PER BOTH MODEL AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS...LIKELY
SUPPORTING SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RATES AT TIMES.
IT APPEARS THAT THIS STRONGLY FORCED SNOW EVENT WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT
LIVED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN RATHER
PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME GOOD RATES AT TIMES
THIS EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT A SHORTER DURATION WILL KEEP SNOW
TOTALS IN CHECK...LIKELY REMAINING LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THROUGH. AS
SUCH...I THINK MOST AREAS WILL END UP CLOSER TO A 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH SOME AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN SOME AREAS.
THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES
LATER THIS EVENING...WHILE ENDING FAR NORTH LATER TONIGHT. IT
APPEARS THAT THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE VORTEX OVER THE HUDSON BAY BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION...DRIER AND COLDER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE FORCED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW AMOUNTS MAY END UP UNDER 6 INCHES
ACROSS EVEN MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS WELL. THE SNOW MAY TO OVER FOR
MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
THE ONLY OTHER THREAT FOR SNOW...WILL BE FROM SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THERMODYNAMICS FAVORABLE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. SOME OF THE
HIGHER RES GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS THAT A MESO LOW MAY SHIFT DOWN THE
LAKE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME BETTER
ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY
REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS SHORES...AS THE FLOW SHOULD
REMAIN MORE NORTHWEST. IN SPITE OF THIS...I DID LEAVE SOME LOW END
POPS NEAR THE LAKE FOR THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT COME ONSHORE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE...BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.
THE MAIN STORY AFTER THE SNOW WILL BE A RETURN TO SOME COLD AIR. IT
APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...POSSIBLY REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW 20S BY TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
KJB
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGH/LOW TEMPS...WITH LOW CHANCE POSSIBILITIES FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD.
GENERAL WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN SEVERAL WAVES OF
ENERGY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THESE
FEATURES AND RESULTANT QPF. ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO VARY WITH
THE STRENGTH OF A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AND THEN IS A TAD MORE BULLISH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...WHATEVER DEVELOPS SHOULD BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE AND QUICKLY EXIT...AND WITH THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. PATTERN TRIES TO BECOME
MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WHILE SHOWING SIGNS OF SLIGHT
WARMING...AS LARGE SCALE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WHILE LARGE VORT MAX SHIFTS EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA. TAIL END OF THIS ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK...AS WINDS BACK AND WAA OCCURS OUT AHEAD OF IT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY
FRIDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THEN POSSIBLE AS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT MOVE OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...THIS WARMING
WILL BE BRIEF AS COLDER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* MODERATE/BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOWFALL BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
IN CIG/VIS TO MVFR/VFR.
* SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SUNDAY...THOUGH
STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN MVFR CIG/VIS.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD NORTHERN IL
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP EASTWARD FROM IOWA THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING...WITH PREVAILING VISIBILITIES RANGING
FROM 1SM TO 2SM...FALLING TO AS LOW AS 1/4SM TO 3/4SM WITH SOME
OF THE HEAVIER BANDED SNOW RETURNS SEEN IN REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC.
TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS AREA OF
MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT. THUS FOR RFD-DPA-ORD AREAS A
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND IMPROVEMENT IN PREVAILING VIS EXPECTED
AFTER 03Z-05Z...WHILE MDW AND GYY SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LIGHTER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHICAGO
TERMINALS MAY SEE SOME LINGERING WEAK LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY.
WINDS AT MDW HAVE BEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST SINCE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD TREND MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO THE 340-360 DEGREE
NORTHERLY RANGE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITED FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW SPORADIC GUSTS 15-20 KT
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW INTENSITY/VIS TRENDS...AND
OVERALL TREND OF VIS/CIG INTO SUNDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODIC LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
1248 PM CST
BY AND LARGE RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE LAKE THE
NEXT WEEK OR SO...THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT A LAKE
ENHANCED MESO-LOW DEVELOPING AND DROPPING SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE
RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF 25-30KT NORTHERLY WINDS TRACK SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THIS SMALL SCALE LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY.
GIVEN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE IN THE HIGHER RES
GUIDANCE WILL BE ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THIS
PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL
MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012 UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022 UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...6 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
855 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 852 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
Band of snow that was to our northwest thru most of the day has
finally made it into west central and central Illinois and we
should see it fill in much more across the area over the next
3 to 4 hours. Preceding the snow, we have had areas of freezing
drizzle over east central and central Illinois as the cloud top
layer was supporting mainly supercooled water droplets. However,
after about a 1 to 2 hour period, ice crystals are introduced
resulting in a transition over to snow, similar to what is
occurring now over parts of west central and central Illinois.
Latest HRRR model suggests the transition zone from freezing
drizzle, sleet and snow will settle to along or just south of I72
by midnight, with snow to the north. Snowfall totals in the band
to our northwest from this afternoon thru early this evening have
ranged from 2 to 4 inches, so see no reason we shouldn`t see
similar reports in our north late tonight into Sunday morning.
Have already updated the zones earlier this evening to address
the timing of the snow and freezing drizzle across the north.
The remainder of the forecast is in good shape so am not planning
on any additional zone updates at this time.
Smith
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 535 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
Timing and coverage of snow into the TAF sites and affect on cigs
and vsbys overnight and into Sunday morning the main forecast
challenge this period. Large area of snow was pushing into far
west central and northwest Illinois late this afternoon and
expect the snow to overspread the entire area by 05z. We may see
a mix of sleet and possibly a brief period of freezing rain as
the precip begins at SPI and DEC but expect the mix to change
over to snow rather quickly late this evening. Once the snow
develops, expect cigs to drop to IFR to LIFR with vsbys at times
around one half mile in moderate snow late this evening and
thru the early morning hours. Past few model runs have suggested
the northern periphery of the snow will progress a bit faster
southeast Sunday morning and end at PIA and BMI by afternoon.
Will trend in that direction but keep the snow going with a
gradual improvement in vsbys further south thru Sunday afternoon.
Surface winds will be out of the north to northeast at 12 to
17 kts with an occasional gust around 22 kts tonight into Sun.
morning, with winds backing more into a north to northwest
direction at 12 to 17 kts by Sunday afternoon.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 310 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tomorrow night...
Storm developing over the west coast, expected to move in and move
along an elongated piece of energy hovering with the quasi
baroclinic zone across the Midwest. The initial impact of
precip/snow for the FA will be frontogenetic in nature before
changing over to more of a deformation zone. Details are changing
as far as the duration of the precip, now ending sooner...the
thermal profiles, altering ptype...and the locations of the best
heavy snowfall potential. All models have been backing off of
precip at times, while still pointing to banding and mesoscale
enhancements to the snowfall. Enough borderline conditions in a
couple of time frames to raise concerns for impact based warnings.
Changed the product headlines across the area to reflect this. One
major concern is the changing thermal profile in the SE. Should
the evaporative cooling eliminate the very subtle warm layer in
the mid levels (GFS is far more subtle and shallow than the NAM),
the QPF will be even more dedicated to snow. This would result in
higher amounts. This, in addition to the proximity to the greatest
chance for mixed precip and signif ice potential, is the reason for
the Winter Storm Warning. Though criteria may be missed as this is
over more than a 24 hr time frame...impact and collaboration have
resulted in that warning decision. Elsewhere...the QPF is
currently outside of the warning criteria over any 24 hr pd and
trending down. That being said, a lot of snow is coming.
Isentropic lift is weak at best over ILX, more signif to the
south. Fn vectors maxed over saturated 1000-500mb RH supporting
the frontogenetic forcing from 03z-12z over ILX. At that point the
movement stalls somewhat as the sfc system begins to develop over
the southwest and move NE through the region. Where exactly the
storm stalls will greatly impact ILX. Too far south and the totals
may need to be knocked down even further. A little further to the
north and the weak deformation region will shift. HPC snow totals
not in complete agreement with the QPF, and as a result have kept
the warning area as conservative as possible. Situation will be
very subject to adjustments through the overnight hours. Last
couple runs have brought the precip to an end sooner...with the
NAM and the GFS both out of the CWA by 12z Monday morning.
LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
More cold air for the extended. Mon-Thursday still well below
freezing. Although Friday is showing signs of a warm up, the WAA
looks a bit weak at this point. Brief waves bringing quick shot of
precip possibly on Wed across the north. Otherwise, dry beyond
the current storm.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Monday
FOR ILZ054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Sunday FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>043-047>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Monday
FOR ILZ044>046.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1008 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY AS DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SAME AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON AND COLUMBUS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A WINTRY MIX
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE LATE WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S AND 50S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
WITH THE EARLIER EVENING UPDATE PUSHED BACK ONSET OF PRECIP BY A
COUPLE HOURS. THIS UPDATE WAS LOOKING SIMILAR...BUT PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED AND SOME MORE ENHANCED ECHOES ON
RADAR ARE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THUS LEFT MOST OF
EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE IN PLACE BUT ADDED THE PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME DRY AIR ALOFT TO OVERCOME
BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO MEASURABLE PRECIP CAN BEGIN. ONSET OF
MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST SHOULD START IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...THE CENTRAL COUNTIES WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF THAT...AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER /AROUND 7-9Z/. DID NOT DEVIATE ON
PRECIP TYPE WITH AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM KIND LOOKING VERY SIMILAR
TO RAP SOUNDINGS WHICH STILL SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLEET IN THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES AND FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
MANY MAJOR CHALLENGES REGARDING THIS LOOMING WINTER STORM INCLUDING
PRECIPITATION AND TIMING OF CHANGEOVERS...SNOW AMOUNTS INCLUDING
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AXIS...ICE AMOUNTS AND TIMING.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW FARTHER SOUTH WITH A COLD FRONT THAT THEY HAVE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE NEW EURO AND 12Z GFS
ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND ALSO WITH
TWO WAVES ALONG THE FRONT. THIS TRANSLATES TO A COLDER COLUMN
COMPARED TO THE 12Z NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE SREF. TRIED TO USE A
COMBINATION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH CANADIAN PARTIAL
THICKNESSES TO DETERMINE BEST PRECIPITATION TYPES AND TRANSITION
ZONES OVER THE LIFE OF THIS WINTER STORM. AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF AN
ATTICA TO TIPTON SHOULD START OFF AS ALL SNOW BEING FURTHER
ENTRENCHED IN THE COLD AIR. MEANWHILE...AREAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF
RUSHVILLE AND TERRE HAUTE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION START OFF AS
RAIN. IN BETWEEN...NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...IT SHOULD START
TRANSITION NORTHWARD FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW.
OVERNIGHT...THINGS SHOULD START TO PICK UP WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW NORTHWEST...ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND A
MIX IN BETWEEN. FINALLY...IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SNOW BY LATE
MORNING AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL IT ENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY
MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
MODELS AGREE ON GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K LEVEL TONIGHT WITH
3 TO 4 G/KG MIXING RATIOS. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE STARTING NORTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WITH
THE REST OF CENTRAL INDIANA FILLING IN BY MIDNIGHT.
MODELS AGREE THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
IN THE EVENT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH BY SUNDAY MORNING.
FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD HANG ON THE LONGEST IN THE SOUTH. CONSIDERING
THESE FACTORS AND HOW LONG EACH LOCAL WITH SEE SNOW...PLACED THE
HIGHEST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AXIS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST SECTIONS WOULD SEE
NEAR 6 INCHES UNDER THIS REASONING WITH 4 TO 6 SOUTH. SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF VINCENNES COULD SEE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF ICE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
WITH STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES...CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW THIS
WINTER STORM WILL PLAY OUT...AND HOW HIGH SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS WILL
BE...COULD STILL BE BETTER. BUT REGARDLESS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WILL STICK WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS AND A WINTER STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE FOR THE SAME TIME AS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER AND/OR
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ICE AMOUNTS UNDERNEATH THE SNOW.
DID NOT DEPART TOO FAR FROM 12Z MOS AND CONSALL BLEND WITH STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL BE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR.
THE CENTER OF BROAD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA BY MONDAY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH FRESH SNOW PACK...PREFER THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES OF THE 12Z GFS MOS AND ALLBLEND WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MONDAY NIGHT NORTH AND IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE ON WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MIDWEEK...WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND COMMENCING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY MORNING...TRACKING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY SATURDAY. WHILE THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
MAY COME AS FAR WEST AS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...EXPECTING LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE HERE IN CENTRAL INDIANA. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS WILL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE 40S BY FRIDAY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE
UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/03Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
SOME OBSERVED FREEZING DRIZZLE POPPING UP IN THE LAST HALF HOUR OR
SO. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION MAY NOT OCCUR IN THE ICE
GROWTH ZONE FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS...SO WILL CARRY TEMPO FREEZING
DRIZZLE FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING. ONCE
SATURATION OCCURS ALOFT...NORTHERN THREE SITES SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE
TO FROZEN RATHER THAN FREEZING PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT PRECIP ONSET TIMES DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS BEFORE
06Z ISSUANCE TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 629 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
VFR INITIALLY WILL RAPIDLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND THEN IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS LATER IN THE PERIOD AS A WINTER STORM IMPACTS THE
TERMINALS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING THROUGH THE AREA AND HAS JUST RECENTLY
GOTTEN ALL THE WAY THROUGH IND/HUF AND WILL PASS BMG WITHIN THE
FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND
08-14KT ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS A RESULT.
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG AND OVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT
IN WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT ALL SITES DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. WILL
KEEP IND/HUF AND ESPECIALLY LAF AS ALL SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
MIX AT IND/HUF BUT TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE FOR THE MOMENT. MIX OF
TYPES IS MUCH MORE LIKELY AT BMG OVERNIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO ALL
SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MOST INTENSE
BANDING...AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME THIS AT EACH SITE BASED ON THE
POSITION OF THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND WILL PUT IT AT
1/2SM SN FG OVC004 DURING THAT TIME...BUT CONDITIONS BRIEFLY BELOW
MINIMUMS WILL DEFINITELY BE A THREAT AT EACH SITE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ036-037-
039>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035-038.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
954 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY AS DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SAME AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON AND COLUMBUS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A WINTRY MIX
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE LATE WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S AND 50S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
MANY MAJOR CHALLENGES REGARDING THIS LOOMING WINTER STORM INCLUDING
PRECIPITATION AND TIMING OF CHANGEOVERS...SNOW AMOUNTS INCLUDING
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AXIS...ICE AMOUNTS AND TIMING.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW FARTHER SOUTH WITH A COLD FRONT THAT THEY HAVE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE NEW EURO AND 12Z GFS
ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND ALSO WITH
TWO WAVES ALONG THE FRONT. THIS TRANSLATES TO A COLDER COLUMN
COMPARED TO THE 12Z NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE SREF. TRIED TO USE A
COMBINATION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH CANADIAN PARTIAL
THICKNESSES TO DETERMINE BEST PRECIPITATION TYPES AND TRANSITION
ZONES OVER THE LIFE OF THIS WINTER STORM. AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF AN
ATTICA TO TIPTON SHOULD START OFF AS ALL SNOW BEING FURTHER
ENTRENCHED IN THE COLD AIR. MEANWHILE...AREAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF
RUSHVILLE AND TERRE HAUTE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION START OFF AS
RAIN. IN BETWEEN...NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...IT SHOULD START
TRANSITION NORTHWARD FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW.
OVERNIGHT...THINGS SHOULD START TO PICK UP WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW NORTHWEST...ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND A
MIX IN BETWEEN. FINALLY...IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SNOW BY LATE
MORNING AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL IT ENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY
MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
MODELS AGREE ON GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K LEVEL TONIGHT WITH
3 TO 4 G/KG MIXING RATIOS. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE STARTING NORTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WITH
THE REST OF CENTRAL INDIANA FILLING IN BY MIDNIGHT.
MODELS AGREE THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
IN THE EVENT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH BY SUNDAY MORNING.
FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD HANG ON THE LONGEST IN THE SOUTH. CONSIDERING
THESE FACTORS AND HOW LONG EACH LOCAL WITH SEE SNOW...PLACED THE
HIGHEST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AXIS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST SECTIONS WOULD SEE
NEAR 6 INCHES UNDER THIS REASONING WITH 4 TO 6 SOUTH. SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF VINCENNES COULD SEE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF ICE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
WITH STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES...CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW THIS
WINTER STORM WILL PLAY OUT...AND HOW HIGH SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS WILL
BE...COULD STILL BE BETTER. BUT REGARDLESS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WILL STICK WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS AND A WINTER STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE FOR THE SAME TIME AS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER AND/OR
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ICE AMOUNTS UNDERNEATH THE SNOW.
DID NOT DEPART TOO FAR FROM 12Z MOS AND CONSALL BLEND WITH STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL BE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR.
THE CENTER OF BROAD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA BY MONDAY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH FRESH SNOW PACK...PREFER THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES OF THE 12Z GFS MOS AND ALLBLEND WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MONDAY NIGHT NORTH AND IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE ON WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MIDWEEK...WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND COMMENCING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY MORNING...TRACKING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY SATURDAY. WHILE THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
MAY COME AS FAR WEST AS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...EXPECTING LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE HERE IN CENTRAL INDIANA. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS WILL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE 40S BY FRIDAY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE
UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/03Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
SOME OBSERVED FREEZING DRIZZLE POPPING UP IN THE LAST HALF HOUR OR
SO. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION MAY NOT OCCUR IN THE ICE
GROWTH ZONE FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS...SO WILL CARRY TEMPO FREEZING
DRIZZLE FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING. ONCE
SATURATION OCCURS ALOFT...NORTHERN THREE SITES SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE
TO FROZEN RATHER THAN FREEZING PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT PRECIP ONSET TIMES DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS BEFORE
06Z ISSUANCE TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 629 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
VFR INITIALLY WILL RAPIDLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND THEN IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS LATER IN THE PERIOD AS A WINTER STORM IMPACTS THE
TERMINALS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING THROUGH THE AREA AND HAS JUST RECENTLY
GOTTEN ALL THE WAY THROUGH IND/HUF AND WILL PASS BMG WITHIN THE
FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND
08-14KT ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS A RESULT.
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG AND OVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT
IN WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT ALL SITES DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. WILL
KEEP IND/HUF AND ESPECIALLY LAF AS ALL SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
MIX AT IND/HUF BUT TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE FOR THE MOMENT. MIX OF
TYPES IS MUCH MORE LIKELY AT BMG OVERNIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO ALL
SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MOST INTENSE
BANDING...AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME THIS AT EACH SITE BASED ON THE
POSITION OF THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND WILL PUT IT AT
1/2SM SN FG OVC004 DURING THAT TIME...BUT CONDITIONS BRIEFLY BELOW
MINIMUMS WILL DEFINITELY BE A THREAT AT EACH SITE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR INZ036-037-039>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-035-038.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1151 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
Latest water vapor satellite loop at 08Z shows a compact
shortwave trough over southeast Colorado into the Texas Panhandle.
Regional radar showing precipitation breaking out from southern
Kansas south into Oklahoma. 00Z TOP and area soundings show quite
a bit of dry air in place. Initial precipitation will go into
moistening the column and forecast soundings from the RUC and NAM
suggest that this should start to occur between 12Z and 15Z when
precipitation should start making it to the ground. Initially
cooling to the wet bulb would give sleet at first then
transitioning over to all rain after 15Z, so not expecting much
ice accumulation this morning. Models are indicating good warm
advection today ahead of the arctic front which was just moving
into western North Dakota and Montana at 09Z. Mixing from 875 mb
today and factoring cloud cover will go lower than MOS temps with
highs in the lower to middle 40s.
Tonight the cold front will move south across the CWA with
temperatures falling back into the teens north to the middle 20s
southeast of Interstate 35. Chances of light rain will continue
early this evening as additional lift is expected as additional
shortwave energy moves through and also some low level frontogenetic
forcing along the cold front. precipitation still looks to be all
rain before ending early this evening, could not rule out a mix
along the Kansas and Nebraska border though.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
Rapid pressure rises underway in eastern Montana this morning with
surface temps near -30 F in central Manitoba and Saskatchewan with
water vapor showing northerlies over it. To the west, rather potent
upper low making eastward progress toward California with one
stronger embedded wave nearing the coast at 08Z. Although modifying
with time, these features come together over the Central Plains this
weekend for a potential winter storm.
Overall setup hasn`t changed a lot, but model differences remain
rather large in smaller scale features, leaving confidence much
lower than that in the days preceding the heavy snow event of early
this month. Differences throughout the troposphere in temperature
and moisture profiles as well as upper energy moving through, the
location and duration of frontogenesis, and the sharpness and
intensity of the warm nose lead the list of potential pitfalls to
how this storm plays out. 0Z models range from the slow NAM to the
fast ECMWF with GEM and GFS in between. The NAM and GFS are more
robust with the aforementioned lead wave passing just north Saturday
evening and then slower with the larger scale wave Sunday, with the
GEM and ECMWF opposing these ideas.
Still looking like much of Saturday will be spent moistening the mid
levels, but by late morning low level isentropic lift may be enough
for freezing drizzle and flurries to be generated. Chances for
measurable amounts increase quickly late in the day, though the NAM
and GFS would suggest a break overnight behind the lead wave. In
either event, fast mid level flow will bring the potential for
longer lived frontogenetic bands under CSI or perhaps brief CI in
the snow growth zone. Upper lift then picks up for much of Sunday as
the main wave passes. Didn`t alter precipitation types much given
uncertainty in the details of the warm nose and how saturated it may
be for at least early in the event. This still keeps the heavier
snow in the northern to central portions of the area with moderate
ice accumulations from freezing rain in the south, and periods of
sleet for most locations. Still not looking like a major ice event
in the very cold low levels and 850 mb front staying well south.
Overall trends suggested a bit stronger wind speeds and colder
temps, giving some concern for blowing snow and hazardous wind chills
as well. Actual air temps should fall to around record levels for both
highs and lows into Monday.
Zonal flow takes hold for the remainder of the forecast resulting in
moderating temps. Some decent agreement with a longer wavelength
trough passing around Wednesday though moisture values likely quite
limited for only light precip opportunities.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
Rain showers have held off to the south this morning. It appears
that any chance of rain will come along and behind a passing
front. Temperatures initially will be warm enough for rain although
quickly cooling for maybe a brief snow shower. The precipitation
should remain light. Freezing drizzle could persist into the night
changing over to flurries in the early morning hours which would
increase the chances of IFR ceilings. It does appear that MVFR
ceilings are more likely overnight and into tomorrow.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1138 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
Record lowest minimum and lowest maximum temperatures...
March 1 March 2 March 3 Any Day in March
Topeka -1/18 -3/14 -1/16 -7/9
Concordia -2/15 -4/15 -6/12 -11/8
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH from Saturday evening through late Sunday
night FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders
CLIMATE...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
555 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
Latest water vapor satellite loop at 08Z shows a compact
shortwave trough over southeast Colorado into the Texas Panhandle.
Regional radar showing precipitation breaking out from southern
Kansas south into Oklahoma. 00Z TOP and area soundings show quite
a bit of dry air in place. Initial precipitation will go into
moistening the column and forecast soundings from the RUC and NAM
suggest that this should start to occur between 12Z and 15Z when
precipitation should start making it to the ground. Initially
cooling to the wet bulb would give sleet at first then
transitioning over to all rain after 15Z, so not expecting much
ice accumulation this morning. Models are indicating good warm
advection today ahead of the arctic front which was just moving
into western North Dakota and Montana at 09Z. Mixing from 875 mb
today and factoring cloud cover will go lower than MOS temps with
highs in the lower to middle 40s.
Tonight the cold front will move south across the CWA with
temperatures falling back into the teens north to the middle 20s
southeast of Interstate 35. Chances of light rain will continue
early this evening as additional lift is expected as additional
shortwave energy moves through and also some low level frontogenetic
forcing along the cold front. precipitation still looks to be all
rain before ending early this evening, could not rule out a mix
along the Kansas and Nebraska border though.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
Rapid pressure rises underway in eastern Montana this morning with
surface temps near -30 F in central Manitoba and Saskatchewan with
water vapor showing northerlies over it. To the west, rather potent
upper low making eastward progress toward California with one
stronger embedded wave nearing the coast at 08Z. Although modifying
with time, these features come together over the Central Plains this
weekend for a potential winter storm.
Overall setup hasn`t changed a lot, but model differences remain
rather large in smaller scale features, leaving confidence much
lower than that in the days preceding the heavy snow event of early
this month. Differences throughout the troposphere in temperature
and moisture profiles as well as upper energy moving through, the
location and duration of frontogenesis, and the sharpness and
intensity of the warm nose lead the list of potential pitfalls to
how this storm plays out. 0Z models range from the slow NAM to the
fast ECMWF with GEM and GFS in between. The NAM and GFS are more
robust with the aforementioned lead wave passing just north Saturday
evening and then slower with the larger scale wave Sunday, with the
GEM and ECMWF opposing these ideas.
Still looking like much of Saturday will be spent moistening the mid
levels, but by late morning low level isentropic lift may be enough
for freezing drizzle and flurries to be generated. Chances for
measurable amounts increase quickly late in the day, though the NAM
and GFS would suggest a break overnight behind the lead wave. In
either event, fast mid level flow will bring the potential for
longer lived frontogenetic bands under CSI or perhaps brief CI in
the snow growth zone. Upper lift then picks up for much of Sunday as
the main wave passes. Didn`t alter precipitation types much given
uncertainty in the details of the warm nose and how saturated it may
be for at least early in the event. This still keeps the heavier
snow in the northern to central portions of the area with moderate
ice accumulations from freezing rain in the south, and periods of
sleet for most locations. Still not looking like a major ice event
in the very cold low levels and 850 mb front staying well south.
Overall trends suggested a bit stronger wind speeds and colder
temps, giving some concern for blowing snow and hazardous wind chills
as well. Actual air temps should fall to around record levels for both
highs and lows into Monday.
Zonal flow takes hold for the remainder of the forecast resulting in
moderating temps. Some decent agreement with a longer wavelength
trough passing around Wednesday though moisture values likely quite
limited for only light precip opportunities.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
VFR conditions at the start of the period are expected to continue
through 22Z then cigs becoming MVFR. Some light precipitation in
the form of rain perhaps a brief period of sleet is possible prior
to 15Z but most likely will remain south of the terminals. However
by 18Z I did include a VCSH to the terminals. A cold front moves
south across the terminals in the 22Z to 00Z time period shifting
winds to the north and increasing to near 14 kts. MVFR cigs are
expected after 00Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 555 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
Record lowest minimum and lowest maximum temperatures...
March 1 March 2 March 3 Any Day in March
Topeka -1/18 -3/14 -1/16 -7/9
Concordia -2/15 -4/15 -6/12 -11/8
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH from Saturday evening through late Sunday
night FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53
CLIMATE...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
527 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
Latest water vapor satellite loop at 08Z shows a compact
shortwave trough over southeast Colorado into the Texas Panhandle.
Regional radar showing precipitation breaking out from southern
Kansas south into Oklahoma. 00Z TOP and area soundings show quite
a bit of dry air in place. Initial precipitation will go into
moistening the column and forecast soundings from the RUC and NAM
suggest that this should start to occur between 12Z and 15Z when
precipitation should start making it to the ground. Initially
cooling to the wet bulb would give sleet at first then
transitioning over to all rain after 15Z, so not expecting much
ice accumulation this morning. Models are indicating good warm
advection today ahead of the arctic front which was just moving
into western North Dakota and Montana at 09Z. Mixing from 875 mb
today and factoring cloud cover will go lower than MOS temps with
highs in the lower to middle 40s.
Tonight the cold front will move south across the CWA with
temperatures falling back into the teens north to the middle 20s
southeast of Interstate 35. Chances of light rain will continue
early this evening as additional lift is expected as additional
shortwave energy moves through and also some low level frontogenetic
forcing along the cold front. precipitation still looks to be all
rain before ending early this evening, could not rule out a mix
along the Kansas and Nebraska border though.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
Rapid pressure rises underway in eastern Montana this morning with
surface temps near -30 F in central Manitoba and Saskatchewan with
water vapor showing northerlies over it. To the west, rather potent
upper low making eastward progress toward California with one
stronger embedded wave nearing the coast at 08Z. Although modifying
with time, these features come together over the Central Plains this
weekend for a potential winter storm.
Overall setup hasn`t changed a lot, but model differences remain
rather large in smaller scale features, leaving confidence much
lower than that in the days preceding the heavy snow event of early
this month. Differences throughout the troposphere in temperature
and moisture profiles as well as upper energy moving through, the
location and duration of frontogenesis, and the sharpness and
intensity of the warm nose lead the list of potential pitfalls to
how this storm plays out. 0Z models range from the slow NAM to the
fast ECMWF with GEM and GFS in between. The NAM and GFS are more
robust with the aforementioned lead wave passing just north Saturday
evening and then slower with the larger scale wave Sunday, with the
GEM and ECMWF opposing these ideas.
Still looking like much of Saturday will be spent moistening the mid
levels, but by late morning low level isentropic lift may be enough
for freezing drizzle and flurries to be generated. Chances for
measurable amounts increase quickly late in the day, though the NAM
and GFS would suggest a break overnight behind the lead wave. In
either event, fast mid level flow will bring the potential for
longer lived frontogenetic bands under CSI or perhaps brief CI in
the snow growth zone. Upper lift then picks up for much of Sunday as
the main wave passes. Didn`t alter precipitation types much given
uncertainty in the details of the warm nose and how saturated it may
be for at least early in the event. This still keeps the heavier
snow in the northern to central portions of the area with moderate
ice accumulations from freezing rain in the south, and periods of
sleet for most locations. Still not looking like a major ice event
in the very cold low levels and 850 mb front staying well south.
Overall trends suggested a bit stronger wind speeds and colder
temps, giving some concern for blowing snow and hazardous wind chills
as well. Actual air temps should fall to around record levels for both
highs and lows into Monday.
Zonal flow takes hold for the remainder of the forecast resulting in
moderating temps. Some decent agreement with a longer wavelength
trough passing around Wednesday though moisture values likely quite
limited for only light precip opportunities.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
VFR conditions at the start of the period are expected to continue
through 22Z then cigs becoming MVFR. Some light precipitation in
the form of rain perhaps a brief period of sleet is possible prior
to 15Z but most likely will remain south of the terminals. However
by 18Z I did include a VCSH to the terminals. A cold front moves
south across the terminals in the 22Z to 00Z time period shifting
winds to the north and increasing to near 14 kts. MVFR cigs are
expected after 00Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH from Saturday evening through late Sunday
night FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
355 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
Latest water vapor satellite loop at 08Z shows a compact
shortwave trough over southeast Colorado into the Texas Panhandle.
Regional radar showing precipitation breaking out from southern
Kansas south into Oklahoma. 00Z TOP and area soundings show quite
a bit of dry air in place. Initial precipitation will go into
moistening the column and forecast soundings from the RUC and NAM
suggest that this should start to occur between 12Z and 15Z when
precipitation should start making it to the ground. Initially
cooling to the wet bulb would give sleet at first then
transitioning over to all rain after 15Z, so not expecting much
ice accumulation this morning. Models are indicating good warm
advection today ahead of the arctic front which was just moving
into western North Dakota and Montana at 09Z. Mixing from 875 mb
today and factoring cloud cover will go lower than MOS temps with
highs in the lower to middle 40s.
Tonight the cold front will move south across the CWA with
temperatures falling back into the teens north to the middle 20s
southeast of Interstate 35. Chances of light rain will continue
early this evening as additional lift is expected as additional
shortwave energy moves through and also some low level frontogenetic
forcing along the cold front. precipitation still looks to be all
rain before ending early this evening, could not rule out a mix
along the Kansas and Nebraska border though.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
Rapid pressure rises underway in eastern Montana this morning with
surface temps near -30 F in central Manitoba and Saskatchewan with
water vapor showing northerlies over it. To the west, rather potent
upper low making eastward progress toward California with one
stronger embedded wave nearing the coast at 08Z. Although modifying
with time, these features come together over the Central Plains this
weekend for a potential winter storm.
Overall setup hasn`t changed a lot, but model differences remain
rather large in smaller scale features, leaving confidence much
lower than that in the days preceding the heavy snow event of early
this month. Differences throughout the troposphere in temperature
and moisture profiles as well as upper energy moving through, the
location and duration of frontogenesis, and the sharpness and
intensity of the warm nose lead the list of potential pitfalls to
how this storm plays out. 0Z models range from the slow NAM to the
fast ECMWF with GEM and GFS in between. The NAM and GFS are more
robust with the aforementioned lead wave passing just north Saturday
evening and then slower with the larger scale wave Sunday, with the
GEM and ECMWF opposing these ideas.
Still looking like much of Saturday will be spent moistening the mid
levels, but by late morning low level isentropic lift may be enough
for freezing drizzle and flurries to be generated. Chances for
measurable amounts increase quickly late in the day, though the NAM
and GFS would suggest a break overnight behind the lead wave. In
either event, fast mid level flow will bring the potential for
longer lived frontogenetic bands under CSI or perhaps brief CI in
the snow growth zone. Upper lift then picks up for much of Sunday as
the main wave passes. Didn`t alter precipitation types much given
uncertainty in the details of the warm nose and how saturated it may
be for at least early in the event. This still keeps the heavier
snow in the northern to central portions of the area with moderate
ice accumulations from freezing rain in the south, and periods of
sleet for most locations. Still not looking like a major ice event
in the very cold low levels and 850 mb front staying well south.
Overall trends suggested a bit stronger wind speeds and colder
temps, giving some concern for blowing snow and hazardous wind chills
as well. Actual air temps should fall to around record levels for both
highs and lows into Monday.
Zonal flow takes hold for the remainder of the forecast resulting in
moderating temps. Some decent agreement with a longer wavelength
trough passing around Wednesday though moisture values likely quite
limited for only light precip opportunities.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST THU FEB 27 2014
Look for VFR conds to become MVFR by afternoon as moisture streams north
ahead of the disturbance now moving into the TX Panhandle. There
could also be sct -shra but coverage remains in question at the
TAF sites. Next issue becomes when CIGS drop to below 2kft as
another cold front pushes south through the area after 00z Sat.
There could also be patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle after 00z
Sat but confidence is low.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH from Saturday evening through late Sunday
night FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Omitt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
939 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
Minor tweaks to temperatures this evening. The 3km HRRR numerical
model guidance runs have been fairly close on the freezing line
and temperature gradient across the WFO PAH forecast area...so
used this guidance to keep forecast temperatures within
verification tolerance.
Decided not to eliminate measurable PoPs/Weather for this evening
and overnight. Local and regional radar has been showing transient
echoes associated with light rain or drizzle. The transition to
freezing and frozen precipitation may be an hour to two faster
than what is actually occurring, but trend is close enough not to
alter too much.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
Confidence is becoming fairly high that a major winter storm will
impact most of the forecast area Sunday and Sunday night. All
watches have now been upgraded to some type of warning headline.
Ice Storm Warnings will be in place in a swath south of a line from
near Fulton KY to Greenville KY, where freezing rain will be the
most predominant for the longest time frame later Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. Elevated instability also point so a decent chc
of getting some thunder, esp in wrn KY and se MO/far srn IL
Sunday evening. Confidence is increasing that a major icing event
will unfold over the ice storm warning region, Would not be
surprised to see ice accumulations at least in the 1/2 to 3/4 inch
range esp Sunday night as a sfc low lifts ene through the Gulf
Coast states. Current models agree on a good inch or two of liquid
falling into sub freezing air.
Farther north in the Winter Storm Warning area...esp along and
just north of the Ohio River, significant freezing rain and sleet
Sunday could be followed by a few to several inches of snow Sunday
night, before the snow winds down early Monday. Cold air should be
deeper quicker north of the Shawnee Hills, resulting in a quicker
change to all sleet and snow Sunday. However, moisture should be
more limited up in that region, which hopefully will keep totals
from exceeding 4 to 6 inches or so.
Very cold arctic air will plunge in for the Monday/Tuesday time
frame, ensuring whatever ice/snow falls with the storm will surely
be with us for awhile. Single digits appear likely at night, with
highs well below freezing.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
rather uneventful weather pattern will take hold through the
remainder of the week. Stratified upper level flow will tend to keep
any weather systems either north or south of the immediate region
through Friday. The core of arctic high pressure will shift across
southeast Canada and the Great Lakes region into the Northeast by
Thursday. The forecast region will be on the southern periphery of
this high. As a result, expect unseasonably cold weather to start
the week. As the week progresses, the combination of slowly warming
temperatures and an increasing March sun angle should help to erode
the snow and ice cover that will be in place at the beginning of the
week. While temperatures will hold below freezing through Tuesday,
we expect highs to climb into the 30s on Wednesday, 40s Thursday,
and perhaps even 50s by Friday.
By late week, both the GFS and ECMWF bring the another piece of
energy east across the Plains with an approaching cold front. Both
models are not quite in agreement with respect to timing, but the
general idea yields our next chance of precipitation by the weekend.
As a result, we have introduced a slight chance of rain showers
Friday night and Saturday. At this point, temperatures appear warm
enough to support mainly liquid precipitation late next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
The initial wind shift to the north or northeast has reached all
of the TAF sites. The real surge of Arctic high pressure will
spread southeast through the area this evening. This will take the
winds to nearly due north and result in an increase in windspeed
through the entire forecast period. The strongest winds in this
will be at KCGI and will be 15-20kts basically from 06Z on. Given
the shallow stable boundary layer, gusts should be few and far
between.
Ceilings will hang out just above MVFR thresholds throughout the
area for much of the evening, but are expected to drop below 3kft
around 06Z, as the surface high surges across the region. The
precipitation will spread east across the area in the pre-dawn
hours. It will begin as light freezing rain at all sites, and
ceilings will gradually lower through the MVFR spectrum. The
heaviest precipitation will sweep through EVV and possibly KOWB
14Z-19Z. Other than this period, all precipitation should be
light enough to stay above MVFR levels. Not confident enough in
IFR ceilings to mention them before snow gets going, which will be
beyond this forecast period. There may be some sleet mixing in with
the freezing rain from north to south through the afternoon.
Confidence in timing this mix/change-over is not great.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
ILZ077-078-082-083-085>094.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ075-076-080-
081-084.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
MOZ108>112-114.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
KYZ003>005-007-010-014-015-018>020.
ICE STORM WARNING from 3 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday FOR KYZ001-
002-006-008-009-011>013-016-017-021-022.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
839 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST
ALONG THIS FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
COLD HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO FLOW INTO THE REGION WITH
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
840 PM UPDATE: INPUT THE LATEST OBS DATA AND ONLY VERY MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS FOR NEXT FEW HRS. FCST RIGHT ON TRACK ATTM WITH NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
PREV DISC;
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD
OF ATHE PPROACHING FRONT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT
TONIGHT IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WHERE ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. MESOSCALE MODELS CONSISTENT
WITH THIS IDEA...HOWEVER THE LASTEST HRRR RUN APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE WITH PRECIP FOR THE COASTAL REGIONS OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUD
COVER AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME OF OUR COLDEST SPOTS LAST
NIGHT REACHED 20 BELOW ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL SAG WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER IS PASSES
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING. 12Z MODEL SUITE NOW EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES IN PORTLAND TOMORROW. IF WE
DO BREAK THE FREEZING POINT...IT WILL BE AFTER QUITE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING WEATHER. THEREAFTER...WE ARE BACK INTO
THE DEEP FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW ZERO...EVEN ALONG
THE COAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH NO SNOW PREDICTED FOR OUR AREA MONDAY.
A SECOND FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE
WITH THIS FRONT SO EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER COLD HIGH BUILDS IN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS IN FOR FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS IN SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HENCE SCAS
REMAIN IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS AT OR BELOW SCA THROUGH THE FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
656 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PERSISTENT TROF
OVER CANADA WITH CORE OF COLDEST AIR/CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY.
12Z H85 TEMPS UNDER THE LOWEST HGTS ARE AOB -30C...INDLUDING -30C AT
INL AND -33C AT YPL. WITH A LLVL NW FLOW E OF ARCTIC HI PRES OVER
THE CNDN PRAIRIES BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS...THIS COLD AIR IS
ADVECTING INTO UPR MI. ALTHOUGH LATEST VSBL STLT IMAGERY SHOWS LK
SUP IS MAINLY ICE COVERED...THERE ARE STILL SOME CLD/SHSN BANDS
STREAMING INTO THE AREA AS THE UPSTREAM 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS SHOWED A
RELATIVELY MOIST LLVL AIRMASS. BUT ANY PCPN HAS BEEN ON THE LGT
SIDE...WITH EXTENSIVE ICE AND LLVL ACYC FLOW TENDING TO LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHSN. ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH INCRSG EARLY
MARCH SUN ANGLE HAS ALSO RESULTED IN MORE INSTABILITY CU/SC OVER
LAND AS WELL. SOME THICKER MID/HI CLDS ARE IMPACTING WI AND SRN UPR
MI ON THE NRN FLANK OF DISTURBANCE/DEEPER MSTR TO THE S. SN UNDER
SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 140KT H3 JET MAX STREAKING ACRS NRN MN/LK
SUP IS AS FAR N AS SRN MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLD TRENDS/CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS.
TNGT...AS CNDN HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD INTO THE NRN PLAINS...AN
ACYC NW FLOW WL DOMINATE THE UPR LKS. ALTHOUGH SOME UPR DVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK MOVING THRU THE UPR LKS WL PASS ACRS THE
SCENTRAL THIS EVNG...GENERAL DRY ADVECTION IN THE H85-7 LYR SHOULD
SUPPRESS NRN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD TO THE S OF MENOMINEE. ALTHOUGH
SOME LK CLDS/A FEW SN SHOWERS OFF LK SUP MAY LINGER UNDER THE COLD
FLOW IN THE EVNG...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS ACYC FLOW/
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN TOWARD 2K FT SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS SHOULD
RESULT IN ALMOST COMPLETE SUPPRESSION OF CLDS/SN SHOWERS OVERNGT.
WITH SKIES TURNING MOCLR AND PWAT UNDER 0.10 INCH...EXPECT SFC TEMPS
TO TUMBLE AOB -20F AT MANY OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS. GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OF THE LK THAT WL TEND TO RESULT IN LOWER TEMPS
OVER THE CWA...TRENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
FCST. LOWERING INVRN BASE/INCRSG STABILITY SHOULD KEEP SFC WINDS
UNDER THE 10 MPH THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BUT ISSUED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE RESULTING VERY LO APRNT/WIND CHILL TEMPS THAT
WL FALL AS LO AS -35F AT SOME PLACES.
SUN...THERE WL BE A SHRTWV TRACKING SEWD TO THE NE OF UPR MI AND
THRU ONTARIO...BUT BULK OF ASSOCIATED UPR FORCING WL REMAIN TO THE
NE OF UPR MI. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSAGE OF ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LO PRES TROF MAY RESULT IN SOME CLDS AND EVEN A FEW LGT SN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA TOWARD THE ACCOMPANYING
DYANMIC FORCING...LO INVRN BASES SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO RANGE FM NEAR -20C OVER THE SCENTRAL TO AS LO AS
-24C OR -25C OVER THE N. WITH THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER...TEMPS WL
REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL
TRANSITION AWAY FROM THE VERY COLD AIR AS THE HIGH LATITUDE RIDGING
INTO ERN AK SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO ERN SIBERIA. THE RESULTING
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO SHIFT OFF
TO THE NE AND MORE MODERATE PACIFIC AIR INTO THE CNTRL CONUS.
HOWEVER...A TREND BACK TOWARD RIDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH NW
FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES WILL KEEP ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE REGION FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SUN NIGHT...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN DROP TO THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...INTO THE -20F TO -30F RANGE INLAND WITH
TEENS BELOW READINGS CLOSER TO THE LAKES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OPEN
WATER PATCHES OVER THE S CNTRL LAKE FOR SOME ISOLD -SHSN INTO THE NE
CWA. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
MON INTO TUE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MON SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE 10F TO 15F RANGE. WNW TO W WINDS SHOULD KEEP ANY
LIGHT LES NEAR THE SHORE IN THE NE CWA. A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COULD BRING AN AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SINCE THE MODELS STILL SHOWED DIFFERENCES WITH
THE GFS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/GEM...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED. EVEN THE MORE
NRN TRACK WOULD ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
WED...MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
WITH DRY WEATHER AND MORE MODERATE BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS.
THU-SAT...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NRN LAKES BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH BETTER MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED GIVE TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES. THE WARMEST CONDITONS OF THE WEEK ARE POSSIBLE BY THU
WITH TEMPS NEAR 30F. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWVM
SHOULD BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE
LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
SOME LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
DESPITE HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. CMX CURRENTLY SEEING IFR
VSBYS AT TIMES DUE LIGHT SNOW/BLSN...BUT THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE
EFFECTIVE SENSOR HEIGHT BEING LOW WHEN COMPARED TO THE DEEP SNOW
DEPTH THERE. IWD ALSO SEEING MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES DUE THE VERY FINE
SNOWFLAKES BEING QUITE EFFECTIVE IN REDUCING VSBYS. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THE INVERSION
LOWERS...EXPECT ALL SITES TO GO VFR TONIGHT AND STAY VFR THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
EXPECT NW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS TO THE E OF HI PRES BUILDING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KTS AFTER MON NIGHT AS
THE HI CENTER PASSES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
438 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ARCTIC BRANCH WNW
FLOW ALF OVER THE UPR LKS TO THE S OF CORE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS/CLOSED
LO CENTERED OVER SRN HUDSON BAY. 12Z H5 TEMP WAS AS LO AS AN
IMPRESSIVE -50C OVER NRN QUEBEC...AND -30C OR LOWER H85 TEMPS WERE
PRESENT WITHIN THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR. A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN THE ARCTIC BRANCH IS CURRENTLY JUST W OF LK WINNIPEG...
WITH SUPPORTING AXIS OF STRONGER H3 WINDS AOA 100KT STRETCHING FM
JUST S OF THE SHRTWV ACRS THE UPR LKS INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME
ENHANCED CLDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN IN WHAT
APPEARS TO BE THE RRQ OF SPEED MAX SUPPORTING THE LK WINNIPEG
SHRTWV. THIS AREA IS ALSO EXPERIENCING GENERAL WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF ACCOMPANYING H85 LO CENTER JUST S OF LK
WINNIPEG. DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON LOCAL
12Z RAOBS...H925 DEWPT DEPRESSION WAS AS HI AS 26C AT MPX AT 12Z...
SOME PATCHY LGT SN HAS BROKEN OUT OVER NE MN WHERE LATEST RUC
ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTENING ON THE
270-280K SFCS /ABOUT H85-7/. DESPITE WHAT APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON VSBL STLT IMAGE OVER THE N PORTION OF LK
MI...A BAND OF -SHSN IN THE LLVL SSW WIND UP THE LENGTH OF LK MOVED
AS FAR N AS INTO MANISTIQUE BY LATE IN THE MRNG. ANOTHER BAND OF SN
UNDER AXIS OF SHARPER MID LVL FGEN IS STREAKING ENEWD THRU WI TOWARD
SCENTRAL UPR MI. OTRW...SFC TEMPS OVER UPR MI HAVE RECOVERED ABV
ZERO FM THE RECORD COLD OBSVD THIS MRNG DESPITE THE THICKENING WAD
CLDS. THE LOWEST TEMP REPORTED WAS -41F AT NEWBERRY CITY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE SN TRENDS/POPS/GOING
HEADLINES ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV/SFC LO NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG. FOCUS
FOR LATER TNGT INTO SAT TURNS TO TEMPS ONCE DRIER AIR RETURNS ALF
AND ENDS THE PCPN. PER NCEP GUIDANCE AND ITS CONSISTENT HANDLING OF
APRCHG DISTURBANCE...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 12Z GFS FOR FCST PREP.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM SHRWTV IS FCST TO OVERSPREAD THE UPR
LKS BY THIS EVNG BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AFT MIDNGT WITH
VIGOROUS MID LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC FOLLOWING. EXPECT THE
PATCHY LGT SN IN NRN MN EARLY THIS AFTN TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF UPR MI
BY LATE AFTN. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE WAD PCPN WL BE
ENHANCED A BIT BY SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET MAX THAT IS
SUPPORTING THE ENHANCED CLDS NOW OVER MN AND WHICH WL BE STREAKING
EWD ACRS LK SUP AND INTO SE ONTARIO AFTER 00Z. LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAVIEST PCPN WL FALL OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA CLOSER TO AXIS OF
SHARPEST MID LVL FGEN AND WHERE THERE WL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT WITH
LLVL SSW FLOW UP THE LENGTH OF LK MI...INCLUDING THE OPEN WATERS S
OF THE LATITUDE OF MENOMINEE WHERE LES BAND WAS QUITE APRNT ON VSBL
STLT IMAGERY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF HIER CLDS OBSCURED THIS FEATURE.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL END
OVERALL LIGHTER PCPN OVER THE W EARLY THIS EVNG AND OVER THE E SOON
AFT 06Z. AS FOR SN TOTALS...H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS FCST TO INCRS TO
1.5-2.0 G/KG OVER THE SE CWA AT 00Z. WITH A 6HR PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
SN AT MOST LOCATIONS...THAT WOULD EQUATE TO UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUM.
BUT FCST SDNGS CONT TO EXHIBIT A DEEP DGZ THAT IS 10K FT OR EVEN
DEEPER. WITH FVRBL SN/WATER RATIOS THAT MAY BE AS HI AS 25-30:1...
EXPECT UP TO 4 INCHES SN TOTAL OVER MUCH OF THE SE CWA WHERE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WL BE GREATEST. WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MI THAT MIGHT
ADD AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR 2 TO THE SN TOTALS...GOING ADVYS FOR
DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES STILL SEEM ON TARGET. AFTER THE PCPN
ENDS...A DVLPG NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LO CENTER TRACKING
ACRS LK SUP WL ADVECT COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE UPR LKS...DROPPING
H85 TEMPS TO ARND -25C OVER THE NW BY 12Z SAT. WITH EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER ON LK SUP...ANY LK EFFECT SHSN IN THE NW WIND SN BELTS SHOULD
BE NO MORE THAN ISOLD. SO MAINTAINED ONLY SCHC POPS IN THESE
LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE CWA WL BE DRY AFT THE EVNG PCPN EXITS.
ONE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVY LVL WIND CHILLS OVER THE W
LATER ON. PREFER THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS SHOWN BY THE FAVORED
GFS...WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A DEEPER SFC LO TRACKING ACRS LK
SUP. BUT EVEN THE HIER GFS NW WINDS AND FCST MIN TEMPS CLOSE TO -10F
OVER THE W RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL WIND CHILLS NEAR -25F LATE TNGT
INTO SAT MRNG. SO OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ADVY FOR NOW.
SAT...THE CWA WL BE DOMINATED BY COLD...ACYC NW FLOW E OF ARCTIC HI
PRES BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS. H85 TEMPS ON SAT ARE FCST TO FALL TO
-29C OVER THE NW TO -25C OVER THE SE CWA BY 00Z SUN. OVERALL ACYC
FLOW AND NEAR ABSENCE OF OPEN WATER OVER LK SUP SHOULD RESTRICT LES
POPS TO NO HIER THAN LO CHC. GUSTY NW WINDS WITH UNSTABLE LLVL LAPSE
RATES UP TO INVRN BASE NEAR H85 WL ALLOW FOR SOME BLSN MAINLY IN
OPEN AREAS NEAR LK SUP DOWNWIND OF SNOW COVERED ICE THAT HAVE BEEN
PLAGUED BY THESE EVENTS THRU THIS COLD WINTER. BUT SINCE LTL IF ANY
SN WL BE FALLING...SUSPECT THERE WL BE NO SGNFT ISSUES. GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUSLY COLD H85 TEMPS...TENDED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY MIXING TO H85 ON THE GFS FCST
SDNGS. WITH DISTURBANCE STREAKING E TOWARD THE LOWER LKS...NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THE NRN FRINGE OF -SN SHIELD COULD BRUSH THE FAR
SCNTRL LATE IN THE DAY. RETAINED SCHC POPS THERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2014
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS POINT TOWARD A BREAK IN THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED WEST COAST/ERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
PATTERN WHICH HAS CHARACTERIZED MUCH OF OUR RECORD COLD WINTER.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NRN END OF THE WRN RIDGE IS FCST TO CLOSE
OFF AND RETROGRADE TO SIBERIA...ALLOWING PACIFIC FLOW TO STRENGTHEN
INTO THE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS FOR
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
TENDENCY FOR SOME DEGREE OF WRN RIDGING WHICH SHOULD ENSURE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST ACROSS UPPER MI FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF WEEKS OF MARCH. SYNOPTIC PCPN APPEARS TO BE MININAL IN
THIS PATTERN WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN MID TO LATE WEEK AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC AND TRACK E
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS IN A MORE LOWER AMPLITUDE MORE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW. LINGERING COLD AIRMASS FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IN NW FLOW...
BUT GIVEN NEAR 100PCT ICE COVER...LES MAY BE SHUTDOWN THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD.
SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A HIGH PRES RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE SFC
HIGH CENTER OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL ENSURE A
PERIOD OF DRY...BUT STILL VERY COLD WEATHER SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECASTING TEMPS WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MIN TEMPS COULD BE VERY COLD EACH NIGHT (WELL BLO
LOWEST GUIDANCE) UNDER LINGERING BUT GRADUALLY MODERATING ARCTIC AIR
MASS. HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN FRINGE OF DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE S
OF THE AREA MAY LIMIT COOLING SOME SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
COVER MAY NOT BE THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ENSURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY STRATOCU OFF WHAT SHOULD BE A TOTALLY ICE
COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT EACH NIGHT AS
SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES SO WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MIN TEMPS
GENERALLY AT OR BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE SAT NIGHT AND SUN
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WITH MODELS TRENDING
FARTHER SOUTH WITH SHORTWAVE NOW FCST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MIDWEST...CLOUDS MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF A FACTOR AS
PREV THOUGHT SO HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH MIN TEMPS FOR MON
NIGHT...CLOSER TO GEM-NH BIAS CORRECTED VALUES. INCREASINGLY
HIGHER SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR WORKING ON LOWER ALBEDO
FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO FROM FRIGID OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH DAY...THOUGH
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL.
12Z MODELS NOW SHOWING BIGGER DISCREPANCIES FOR MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE GEM-NH AND ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE UKMET
SHOW A SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN FM HUDSON BAY BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH
OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GEM-NH IS DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH
THIS FEATURE THAN THE ECMWF AND EVENTUALLY FORMS A CLOSED LOW BY 12Z
THU OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE
STAYING WELL NE AND NOT IMPACTING THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY...FEEL INCLINED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH THE ECMWF WHICH IS
MORE OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND MORE EXTREME GEM-NH SOLN.
THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE AREA FOR ONE MORE
DAY WITH DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO TEMPS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUE NIGHT
BEFORE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOW A
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE COMING INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FRONT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING IT THROUGH UNTIL LATE THU
NIGHT AND FRI. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE RESULTING
IN 30 TO 40 PCT POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY THU NIGHT INTO FRI. TEMPS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL MODERATE INTO THE 20S AND MAY EVEN
APPROACH 30F AT A FEW SITES ALONG THE WI BORDER. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS BY MID/LATE AFTN AS AREA OF -SN ASSOCIATED WITH LO PRES
MOVING THRU NW MN OVERSPREADS UPR MI. BEST CHC FOR SOMEWHAT HEAVIER
SN/IFR VSBYS WL BE AT SAW TOWARD 00Z...CLOSER TO WHEN BETTER DYNAMIC
SUPPORT IS FCST TO IMPACT SCENTRAL UPR MI. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
ALF WL END THE PCPN W-E THIS EVNG...BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS
TO LINGER THRU SAT MRNG AT IWD/CMX WITH STEADY...UPSLOPE NW FLOW OF
COLDER AIR. EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER LK SUP WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVIER LES THAT WOULD NORMALLY BE A PROBLEM AT THESE LOCATIONS.
DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE NW FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD VFR
CONDITIONS AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2014
EXPECT S WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS AHEAD OF LO PRES CROSSING LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING TO SHIFT TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT ONCE THE LO
SHIFTS INTO SE ONTARIO AND THEN INCREASE UP TO 25-30 KTS INTO SAT
UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LO AND HI PRES
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FROM THE N PLAINS AND S CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL ENSURE LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ013-014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC/VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
342 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ARCTIC BRANCH WNW
FLOW ALF OVER THE UPR LKS TO THE S OF CORE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS/CLOSED
LO CENTERED OVER SRN HUDSON BAY. 12Z H5 TEMP WAS AS LO AS AN
IMPRESSIVE -50C OVER NRN QUEBEC...AND -30C OR LOWER H85 TEMPS WERE
PRESENT WITHIN THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR. A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN THE ARCTIC BRANCH IS CURRENTLY JUST W OF LK WINNIPEG...
WITH SUPPORTING AXIS OF STRONGER H3 WINDS AOA 100KT STRETCHING FM
JUST S OF THE SHRTWV ACRS THE UPR LKS INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME
ENHANCED CLDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN IN WHAT
APPEARS TO BE THE RRQ OF SPEED MAX SUPPORTING THE LK WINNIPEG
SHRTWV. THIS AREA IS ALSO EXPERIENCING GENERAL WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF ACCOMPANYING H85 LO CENTER JUST S OF LK
WINNIPEG. DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON LOCAL
12Z RAOBS...H925 DEWPT DEPRESSION WAS AS HI AS 26C AT MPX AT 12Z...
SOME PATCHY LGT SN HAS BROKEN OUT OVER NE MN WHERE LATEST RUC
ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTENING ON THE
270-280K SFCS /ABOUT H85-7/. DESPITE WHAT APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON VSBL STLT IMAGE OVER THE N PORTION OF LK
MI...A BAND OF -SHSN IN THE LLVL SSW WIND UP THE LENGTH OF LK MOVED
AS FAR N AS INTO MANISTIQUE BY LATE IN THE MRNG. ANOTHER BAND OF SN
UNDER AXIS OF SHARPER MID LVL FGEN IS STREAKING ENEWD THRU WI TOWARD
SCENTRAL UPR MI. OTRW...SFC TEMPS OVER UPR MI HAVE RECOVERED ABV
ZERO FM THE RECORD COLD OBSVD THIS MRNG DESPITE THE THICKENING WAD
CLDS. THE LOWEST TEMP REPORTED WAS -41F AT NEWBERRY CITY.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL BE SN TRENDS/POPS/GOING
HEADLINES ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV/SFC LO NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG. FOCUS
FOR LATER TNGT INTO SAT TURNS TO TEMPS ONCE DRIER AIR RETURNS ALF
AND ENDS THE PCPN. PER NCEP GUIDANCE AND ITS CONSISTENT HANDLING OF
APRCHG DISTURBANCE...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 12Z GFS FOR FCST PREP.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM SHRWTV IS FCST TO OVERSPREAD THE UPR
LKS BY THIS EVNG BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AFT MIDNGT WITH
VIGOROUS MID LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC FOLLOWING. EXPECT THE
PATCHY LGT SN IN NRN MN EARLY THIS AFTN TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF UPR MI
BY LATE AFTN. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE WAD PCPN WL BE
ENHANCED A BIT BY SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET MAX THAT IS
SUPPORTING THE ENHANCED CLDS NOW OVER MN AND WHICH WL BE STREAKING
EWD ACRS LK SUP AND INTO SE ONTARIO AFTER 00Z. LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAVIEST PCPN WL FALL OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA CLOSER TO AXIS OF
SHARPEST MID LVL FGEN AND WHERE THERE WL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT WITH
LLVL SSW FLOW UP THE LENGTH OF LK MI...INCLUDING THE OPEN WATERS S
OF THE LATITUDE OF MENOMINEE WHERE LES BAND WAS QUITE APRNT ON VSBL
STLT IMAGERY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF HIER CLDS OBSCURED THIS FEATURE.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL END
OVERALL LIGHTER PCPN OVER THE W EARLY THIS EVNG AND OVER THE E SOON
AFT 06Z. AS FOR SN TOTALS...H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS FCST TO INCRS TO
1.5-2.0 G/KG OVER THE SE CWA AT 00Z. WITH A 6HR PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
SN AT MOST LOCATIONS...THAT WOULD EQUATE TO UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUM.
BUT FCST SDNGS CONT TO EXHIBIT A DEEP DGZ THAT IS 10K FT OR EVEN
DEEPER. WITH FVRBL SN/WATER RATIOS THAT MAY BE AS HI AS 25-30:1...
EXPECT UP TO 4 INCHES SN TOTAL OVER MUCH OF THE SE CWA WHERE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WL BE GREATEST. WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MI THAT MIGHT
ADD AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR 2 TO THE SN TOTALS...GOING ADVYS FOR
DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES STILL SEEM ON TARGET. AFTER THE PCPN
ENDS...A DVLPG NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LO CENTER TRACKING
ACRS LK SUP WL ADVECT COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE UPR LKS...DROPPING
H85 TEMPS TO ARND -25C OVER THE NW BY 12Z SAT. WITH EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER ON LK SUP...ANY LK EFFECT SHSN IN THE NW WIND SN BELTS SHOULD
BE NO MORE THAN ISOLD. SO MAINTAINED ONLY SCHC POPS IN THESE
LOCATIONS. THE REST OF THE CWA WL BE DRY AFT THE EVNG PCPN EXITS.
ONE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVY LVL WIND CHILLS OVER THE W
LATER ON. PREFER THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS SHOWN BY THE FAVORED
GFS...WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A DEEPER SFC LO TRACKING ACRS LK
SUP. BUT EVEN THE HIER GFS NW WINDS AND FCST MIN TEMPS CLOSE TO -10F
OVER THE W RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL WIND CHILLS NEAR -25F LATE TNGT
INTO SAT MRNG. SO OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ADVY FOR NOW.
SAT...THE CWA WL BE DOMINATED BY COLD...ACYC NW FLOW E OF ARCTIC HI
PRES BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS. H85 TEMPS ON SAT ARE FCST TO FALL TO
-29C OVER THE NW TO -25C OVER THE SE CWA BY 00Z SUN. OVERALL ACYC
FLOW AND NEAR ABSENCE OF OPEN WATER OVER LK SUP SHOULD RESTRICT LES
POPS TO NO HIER THAN LO CHC. GUSTY NW WINDS WITH UNSTABLE LLVL LAPSE
RATES UP TO INVRN BASE NEAR H85 WL ALLOW FOR SOME BLSN MAINLY IN
OPEN AREAS NEAR LK SUP DOWNWIND OF SNOW COVERED ICE THAT HAVE BEEN
PLAGUED BY THESE EVENTS THRU THIS COLD WINTER. BUT SINCE LTL IF ANY
SN WL BE FALLING...SUSPECT THERE WL BE NO SGNFT ISSUES. GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUSLY COLD H85 TEMPS...TENDED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY MIXING TO H85 ON THE GFS FCST
SDNGS. WITH DISTURBANCE STREAKING E TOWARD THE LOWER LKS...NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THE NRN FRINGE OF -SN SHIELD COULD BRUSH THE FAR
SCNTRL LATE IN THE DAY. RETAINED SCHC POPS THERE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014
CURRENT PATTERN IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING N
THRU AK/YUKON AND A DEEP TROF DOWNSTREAM OVER MUCH OF CANADA INTO
THE ADJACENT CONUS...A PATTERN THAT HAS FREQUENTLY BEEN OBSERVED
THIS COLD SEASON. ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF...A BITTERLY COLD AIR
MASS WITH MAGNITUDE VERY UNUSUAL FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON WILL
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. THEN...SIMILAR TO THE LAST OCCURRENCE OF
THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN...THE NRN END OF THE WRN RIDGE IS
STILL FCST TO CLOSE OFF AND RETROGRADE TO SIBERIA...ALLOWING PACIFIC
FLOW TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING SLOW MODERATION
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
TENDENCY FOR SOME DEGREE OF WRN RIDGING WHICH SHOULD ENSURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS MOSTLY PREVAIL ACROSS UPPER MI FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
WEEKS. WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT WINDS OVER THE COMING DAYS...THE
LINGERING COLD AIR MASS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH LAKE SUPERIOR TO 100PCT
ICE COVER. MAY REACH THAT THIS MORNING DUE TO THE CURRENT LIGHT WIND
REGIME. FAST LOOPING OF YESTERDAYS VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY
SHOWED ICE GROWING IN THE REMAINING OPEN WATER AREAS. AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED...PATTERN IS NOT REALLY FAVORABLE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SYNOPTIC PCPN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICIATIONS FROM MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE FOR POTENTIALLY A LITTLE MORE ACTION MID AND LATE
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SWEEP ONSHORE OFF THE PACIFIC
AND TRACK E IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME...
THOUGH NOTHING LOOKS SIGNIFICANT. NORMALLY WOULD BE DEALING WITH LES
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THIS COLD AIR MASS...BUT WITH EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER THAT SHOULD BE AT OR VERY NEAR 100PCT...LES MAY BE SHUTDOWN
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
BEGINNING SAT...FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER RENEWED CAA IN NW FLOW BTWN
DEPARTING LOW PRES TROF AND CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NRN
PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND -18C SE TO -24C NW AT 12Z
WILL FALL TO -25C SE TO -29C NW BY EVENING. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 0F OVER THE W. TO THE S AND E...TEMPS SHOULD
RISE TOWARD 10F WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR IN THAT AREA TO START
THE DAY. MAINTAINED SCHC POPS FOR LES IN AREAS FAVORED BY NW WINDS
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THE LAKE WILL BE
COMPLETELY ICE COVERED...PREVENTING ANY LES. HOWEVER...IF NW WINDS
ARE STRONG ENOUGH SAT TO PUSH THE ICE A BIT...THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
OPEN WATER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MN N SHORE UP PAST ISLE ROYALE AND
ALSO TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. IF SO...THERE WILL BE A
FEW -SHSN AND THUS THE SCHC POPS. OTHERWISE...WINDS MAY BE GUSTY
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME BLSN/REDUCED VIS IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...BUT SHOULDN`T BE TOO BIG OF AN ISSUE GIVEN THE LACK OF
SNOW FALLING. WINDS IN THE MORNING MAY ALSO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
DRIVE WIND CHILLS DOWN TO THE ADVY CATEGORY OVER THE W. WITH
DISTURBANCE STREAKING E TOWARD THE SRN LAKES...NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT THE NRN FRINGE OF -SN SHIELD COULD BRUSH THE FAR
SCNTRL LATE IN THE DAY INTO SAT EVENING. RETAINED SCHC POPS THERE.
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE STRETCHING FROM HIGH CENTER IN THE NRN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL ENSURE A PERIOD OF DRY...BUT STILL VERY
COLD WEATHER SAT NIGHT/SUN. TEMPS SAT NIGHT AND FOR THAT MATTER EACH
OF THE FOLLOWING NIGHTS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE A CHALLENGE.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS...MIN TEMPS COULD BE VERY LOW
EACH NIGHT (WELL BLO LOWEST GUIDANCE) UNDER LINGERING BUT GRADUALLY
MODERATING ARCTIC AIR MASS. HIGH CLOUDS ON THE NRN FRINGE OF
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE S OF THE AREA MAY LIMIT COOLING SOME SAT
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE THRU
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY STRATOCU OFF WHAT
SHOULD BE A TOTALLY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH WINDS MOSTLY
LIGHT EACH NIGHT WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES
IN THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MIN TEMPS GENERALLY AT OR BLO
THE LOWEST GUIDANCE SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. SINCE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W WILL BE A
FACTOR MON NIGHT...WILL FAVOR THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE E THAT
NIGHT. INCREASINGLY HIGHER SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR WORKING ON
LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE NICELY FROM
FRIGID OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH DAY...THOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL
BLO NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10F SUN WILL
GENERALLY RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR MON.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE CONUS MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK.
INCREASING CLOUDS MON NIGHT WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FIRST WAVE. THERE
IS DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER THAT WAVE WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH N TO
BRING SOME -SN TO THE AREA TUE. THE GEM KEEPS SYSTEM FARTHER S...SO
NO -SN...THE ECMWF/GFS ARE FARTHER N. FOLLOWING THAT SYSTEM...THERE
WILL BE MORE SHORTWAVES...BUT GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF WAVES. FCST WILL SHOW SCHC POPS THRU MUCH OF THE
TUE-THU TIME PERIOD UNTIL SOME AGREEMENT/CONSISTENCY DEVELOPS IN
MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THRU THE WEEK.
BY WED...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEARING 20F...AND ON THU...TEMPS MAY
PUSH WELL INTO THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS BY MID/LATE AFTN AS AREA OF -SN ASSOCIATED WITH LO PRES
MOVING THRU NW MN OVERSPREADS UPR MI. BEST CHC FOR SOMEWHAT HEAVIER
SN/IFR VSBYS WL BE AT SAW TOWARD 00Z...CLOSER TO WHEN BETTER DYNAMIC
SUPPORT IS FCST TO IMPACT SCENTRAL UPR MI. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
ALF WL END THE PCPN W-E THIS EVNG...BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS
TO LINGER THRU SAT MRNG AT IWD/CMX WITH STEADY...UPSLOPE NW FLOW OF
COLDER AIR. EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER LK SUP WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVIER LES THAT WOULD NORMALLY BE A PROBLEM AT THESE LOCATIONS.
DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE NW FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD VFR
CONDITIONS AT SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND PLENTY OF VERY COLD AIR WILL LIKELY ACT TO
QUICKLY FORM ANOTHER ROUND OF THIN ICE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LINGERING
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR /AS SEEN ON THE LAST FEW VIS SATELLITE
IMAGES YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE THIS
MORNING/TODAY. THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THIS EVENING. A
LOW/TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE
N PLAINS AND S CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW/TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ013-014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
930 PM MST THU FEB 27 2014
.UPDATE...
PERIOD OF RAIN IN THE BILLINGS AREA IS JUST ABOUT OVER AS COLD AIR
IS NOW SURGING IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MT AND TEMPS AT JUDITH GAP ALREADY IN THE LOW
20S WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. EXTENDED PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OVERRUNNING THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BRING SNOWFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR WEST/CENTRAL PARTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... THEN
CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS SUBTROPICAL ENERGY/
MOISTURE GLANCES OUR CWA FROM THE SW.
HAVE MADE THE FOLLOWING ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT. RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
EVENING WILL BE JUST SNOW AFTER 06Z. THIS SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD
OF RAIN THAN EXPECTED MAY REDUCE SNOW AMTS TONIGHT A BIT...BUT
STILL LOOKING FOR 2-4 INCHES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AS THE DENDRITIC
LAYER DEEPENS SUBSTANTIALLY THUS ALLOWING FOR SNOWFALL TO BE
EFFICIENT AND PERIODICALLY HEAVY. NEXT ADJUSTMENT WAS TO LOWER RED
LODGE/NYE FOOTHILLS SNOW AMOUNTS BY A FEW INCHES TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE A SHORT PERIOD OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE AS THE
FRONT COMES IN TONIGHT...BUT THEN AS MID LEVEL WINDS BACK THE
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD SHIFT AWAY FROM THE BEARTOOTH SLOPES AS
THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF DOWNSLOPING...AS SHOWN CONSISTENTLY
BY THE RAP...LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BEST ASCENT FOR THE
FOOTHILLS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ENERGY FROM THE SW
PROVIDES BETTER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL AND MORE MOISTURE. THIRDLY...
HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR FALLEN COUNTY TOMORROW THRU
SATURDAY PER GUSTY NW WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPS. THIS WILL BE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD WIND CHILLS ACROSS OUR EAST.
BE CAREFUL IF YOU ARE TRAVELING THIS EVENING AS WET ROADS WILL BE
ICING OVER SOON.
JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...
INGREDIENTS CONTINUE TO COME TOGETHER FOR A DANGEROUS WINTER
STORM TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AT 21Z...ARCTIC FRONT WAS SURGING
S THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA. MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM W
MT WAS GENERATING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER AREAS W AND N OF KBIL PER
RADAR IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND SLIDING IT
S THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A BAND OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W TO E TONIGHT.
NOTED THE HRRR AND SREF HINTED AT SOME POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...BUT RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOWED A QUICK WET BULB DOWN ONCE THE PRECIPITATION
BEGINS SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ALSO
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED ICE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CLOUDS SO RESULT SHOULD
BE A RATHER QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING. GOOD DENDRITIC
GROWTH WILL ACCOMPANY THE LIFT AND MOISTURE RESULTING IN SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY. IT
WILL BECOME WINDY OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AREAS
LIKE JUDITH GAP AND KLVM COULD SEE NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES BY FRI MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT...BEFORE DIMINISHING SAT NIGHT. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSING BY TO THE S OF THE AREA WILL AID IN GENERATING
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL BE ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ON FRI AND WILL MOVE S OF THE AREA FRI
NIGHT. STRONG JET DIVERGENCE WILL AID THE LIFT OVER THE AREA FRI
INTO SAT AS WELL. EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER THE REGION ON
FRI DUE TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE BEST DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL SINK S
AND SW DURING THE DAY ON FRI AND WILL BE OVER THE FAR SW FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE W OF ROSEBUD COUNTY
ON FRI WITH HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRI NIGHT AND
SAT WILL HAVE SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL BE LOWER FOR FRI
NIGHT AND SAT WITH LESS OF A THREAT OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW WILL
WIND DOWN SAT NIGHT AS LIFT DECREASES OVER THE AREA.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON FRI AND LOWS WILL
BE IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO FRI NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE
ABOVE ZERO FOR SAT AND WILL BE VERY COLD SAT NIGHT AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES APPROACH -30 DEGREES C. EXPECT DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRI ONWARD.
WILL CONTINUE THE WARNING FOR AREAS W OF ROSEBUD COUNTY FOR
MULTIPLE STORM IMPACTS...AND WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES...EXCEPT FOR FALLON COUNTY WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BEFORE A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ARRIVES TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A 500MB UPPER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY AREA OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST KEEPING A MOIST PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SITUATED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH
THE STRONG DYNAMICS FROM THIS CURRENT STORM WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF
THE AREA THERE WILL STILL BE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT A
SLIGHT MODERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
MODELS TRY TO QUICKLY RETREAT THE ARCTIC AIR BY TUESDAY WITH
READINGS WELL UP INTO THE 40S. HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED SNOW COVER
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY WITH
SNOW COVER...AS STRONG EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE CAN QUICKLY BOOST
TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION... WILL NEED TO WATCH
THE POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING SNOW AS SOME BRIEF GAP AND/OR DRAINAGE
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AS THE ARCTIC RETREATS. AFTER SUNDAY...NO
STRONG STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NEAR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SNOW.
HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS...EVENTUALLY TURNING TO ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW
WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST OF A ROUNDUP
TO SHERIDAN LINE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT...INCLUDING KBIL...KSHR AND
KLVM TAF LOCATIONS...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO THE EAST OF
THIS LINE INCLUDING KMLS. POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ALL AREA MOUNTAINS OBSCURED.
CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 008/009 912/909 917/905 916/015 007/032 015/037 023/030
++/S ++/S 73/S 33/S 23/S 32/S 22/S
LVM 010/015 908/903 914/006 912/024 013/035 017/039 027/036
++/S ++/S 74/S 43/S 33/S 42/S 33/S
HDN 007/012 913/905 919/901 918/014 002/030 013/034 020/029
++/S ++/S 73/S 33/S 22/S 32/S 22/S
MLS 002/005 915/909 920/902 919/008 000/026 011/031 017/023
56/S 77/S 52/S 22/S 12/S 22/S 22/S
4BQ 004/010 910/903 919/002 918/011 003/027 013/035 017/027
77/S 9+/S 62/S 22/S 12/S 21/B 12/S
BHK 902/002 917/908 921/901 920/005 903/022 015/031 012/022
25/S 56/S 42/S 22/S 12/S 21/B 12/S
SHR 014/015 909/901 914/005 915/019 008/035 016/039 020/035
9+/S ++/S 73/S 32/S 22/S 32/S 12/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 28>30-34-35-38>42-56>58-63>68.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 31-32-36-37.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM MST
SATURDAY FOR ZONE 33.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 98-99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1135 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING THRU AND GENERATING THESE MID-
LEVEL RETURNS YOU`RE SEEING ON RADAR. MESONET STATIONS SHOW THAT
THERE ARE STILL SOME POCKETS NE OF THE TRI-CITIES THAT ARE AT OR
BELOW 32F. SO FRZG SPRINKLES ARE STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...IT`S
SPRINKLES AND THEY COULD MIX WITH SLEET BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
HAD TO BACKTRACK ON THE CLOUD COVER CHANGES NOW THAT THE FIRST
VISIBLE SAT IMAGES ARE AVAILABLE. A SHIELD OF 1200-2800 FT
OVERCAST IS ADVANCING SE THRU THE SANDHILLS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SO ANY LITTLE SUN THIS MORNING OVER S-CNTRL NEB WILL SOON END.
S OF THE SNOWPACK OVER N-CNTRL KS...IT`S SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY
NICE DAY AND WE COULD BE A LITTLE LOW ON HIGH TEMPS BASED ON
MORNING SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE RESTRAINS
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING TEMPS JUST YET.
HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO DEWPOINTS THRU SUNSET. WE
WERE NOT LOW ENOUGH NE OF THE TRI-CITIES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FCST
USING THE CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE. BASED ON
SATELLITE...CLOUDS WERE BACKED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
NOT AS MUCH AS NECESSARY. BUT BELIEVE WE HAVE TRENDED THE FCST IN
THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
THE FRONT IS PROGRESSING THRU THE SANDHILLS AND PANHANDLE. I LIKE
THE WINDS WE HAVE IN THE FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
THE FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS IS ON THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY AND ANY ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION...WHILE TO THE SOUTH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING
EASTWARD ACROSS OK/SOUTHERN KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WAS IN PLACE WITH LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERS LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST SD AND SOUTHEAST
CO. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CROSS THE PLAINS TODAY
WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHERN WY EARLY THIS MORNING.
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM CROSSING KS/OK SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
AREA BUT DID INCLUDE SOME SILENT POPS IN KS IN CASE IT MIGRATES A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. OTHERWISE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD
REACH OUR NW CWA BY MID DAY AND MOVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT...TEMPS
LOOK TO WARM AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND RAISED HIGHS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPS WITH READINGS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE BUT NOT
AS WARM AS THE RAP SUGGESTS. TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSER TODAY...THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH STEADYING/FALLING
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COMBINED WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL
BRING THE CHC FOR LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES DURING THE AFTN/EVE. PCPN TYPE OF R/S WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW WARM TEMPS RISE BEFORE COOLING/FALLING WITH CAA BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON WHETHER PCPN WILL BE MORE THAN A
TRACE EVENT OF FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OR WHETHER LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE CARRIED LOW POPS WITH OUR CWA ON THE BUFFER OF
BETTER CHCS FOR ACCUMULATIONS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. ALSO
TODAY...3 HR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AVERAGE 4MB AND WINDS
WILL INCREASE FM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY FROM THE NORTH INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -18C ACROSS OUR NORTH BY MORNING AND IN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. CURRENT
WIND CHILL VALUES ARE THE COLDEST ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
IN NEBRASKA WHERE VALUES DROP TO THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW ZERO
RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. ISENTROPIC
LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NW ZONES TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM AND INCLUDED LOW POPS
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIES WITH THE
FIRST 36 HRS OR SO...AS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CHANCES TAKE AIM ON
THE PLAINS.
THE GENERAL STORY FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME HASNT
CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE CWA COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT HUDSON BAY LOW...AS WELL AS A
STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. WILL
STATE UPFRONT THAT CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO
THE EVENT...IS ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT REMAIN.
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO START ROLLING
IN FROM THE NW AS THE BASE OF THAT NRN DISTURBANCE SWINGS MAINLY
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. A FEW MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
COUPLING OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS IN THE AREA...OTHERS NOT SO
MUCH...BUT ALL AGREE WITH THE STRONGEST JET STREAK BEING WELL NORTH
OF THE CWA...AND ALSO EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASED MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING...WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS OF MODELS HAVING
SHOWN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT. LATEST RUNS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE MORE FOCUSED AREA OF PRECIPITATION SLIDING ACROSS MAINLY
THE NRN HALF OF NEB...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CWA ROUGHLY
ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. OUTSIDE OF THE 00Z GFS...OTHER MODELS
SHOWING PRETTY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE SOUTH...CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET THANKS TO A WARMER NOSE ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP THAT SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION GOING. OTHERWISE PTYPE FURTHER NORTH AND THEN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE SNOW.
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT HELPED
WITH CONFIDENCE. IF YOU TAKE THE 06Z NAM AS IS...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH COMPLETELY SHUTS OFF PRECIPITATION
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE CWA. OTHERS ARE NOT QUITE SO DRAMATIC...AND
WHILE BETTER FOCUS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH...THE CWA IS NOT OUT OF THE
CLEAR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST...WHILE IT WEAKENS/FILLS QUITE A BIT ONCE ITS INLAND...IS
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES DURING THIS PERIOD.
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD LIES WITH THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THAT
WRN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WHILE SATURDAYS BETTER SNOW CHANCES
LIE ACROSS NRN LOCATIONS...SUNDAYS FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SRN CWA.
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING ANYWHERE FROM
SRN NEB TO OK.
AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS GO...DIDNT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST...AND CURRENTLY HAVE ANYWHERE FROM 2 IN THE WEST
TO ARND 4.5 IN THE FAR SE CORNER. HOWEVER...LIKE MENTIONED
ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE...SO EXPECT THERE TO BE
ADJUSTMENTS AS WE GET CLOSER. REMEMBER THAT WRN SYSTEM ISNT EVEN ON
SHORE YET...AND ITS THAT SYSTEM MODELS HAVE SOME BIGGER
DIFFERENCES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON UPCOMING RUNS TO SEE IF
THEY TREND TOWARD SOMETHING LIKE THAT 06Z NAM...SUGGESTING AFTER
ROUGHLY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...WE COULD BE DONE WITH PRECIP...AS IT
KEEPS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT ACROSS KS/OK. CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS ARE NOT TRENDED THAT WAY...BUT ITS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. IN REGARD TO ANY KIND OF WINTER HEADLINE...WILL LET DAY CREW GET
A FRESH SET OF MODELS AND TRY TO PIN MORE DETAILS DOWN. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE ONE WILL BE NEEDED BETWEEN THE COMBO OF SNOW AND WIND
CHILLS...JUST TO MANY UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH ONE.
ITS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WOULD BE ACCOMPANYING
THESE SNOW CHANCES THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT UNFORTUNATELY HASNT
CHANGED. STILL LOOKING AT A BITTERLY COLD WEEKEND...AFTER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS COLDER...WITH
FORECAST HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. COMBINED WITH AT TIMES BREEZY N/NE WINDS...WIND CHILL
VALUES DROPPING NEAR/BELOW -20 STILL IN THE FORECAST.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...AND ARE EXPECTING TO SEE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE UPPER LEVELS...GENERALLY
REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF HERE...BUT AT THIS POINT UNTIL
THINGS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THE FORECAST IS DRY. THIS LATEST
BATCH OF BITTERLY COLD AIR ALOFT GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
850MB TEMPS GOING FROM ROUGHLY -10 TO -20 SUNDAY MORNING TO POSSIBLY
5 T0 10 ABOVE ZERO FOR THE TUES THROUGH THURS PERIOD. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE TEENS FOR MONDAY TO 40S/50S FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z GRI TAF THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WILL DECAY TO MVFR. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
THRU GRI BY 19Z AND EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT N AND GUST TO 25 KTS. A
DECK OF MVFR STRATUS WILL INVADE AS WELL. RADAR SHOWS SOME MID-
LEVEL GENERATED PRECIP AND GIVEN THE WARM NOSE IN THE TEMP PROFILE
3500-6000 FT...SOME IP COULD MIX IN. IT SHOULD BE DONE BY 22Z AT
THE LATEST. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
TONIGHT: LOW-LEVEL RH AND SREF CEILING GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE MVFR
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER 01Z-04Z...LEAVING VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND
12K FT. DAYTIME GUSTINESS SHOULD END BY 02Z. N WINDS CONTINUE
15-20 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
SAT: VFR TO START BUT CIGS STEADILY LOWER 12Z-15Z WITH SNOW MOVING
IN 15Z-18Z. GRI LIKELY TO BECOME IFR/LIFR TOWARD 15Z. NNE WINDS
AROUND 20 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 726 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
AVERAGE FEB TEMP AT GRAND ISLAND: AS OF MIDNIGHT IT SITS AT 23.4F
AND GIVEN THE LOW OF 15F THIS MORNING...AND THE PROJECTED HIGH
TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE GRI WILL FINISH THE MONTH WITH AN AVG TEMP
OF 23.5F /5.5 COLDER THAN NORMAL/. THAT WILL MAKE THIS THE
COLDEST FEB SINCE 2001 WHEN THE AVG TEMP WAS 20.6F.
FOLLOWING BELOW IS A RECAP OF THE DAILY RECORD COLD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS THAT COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE DAILY RECORDS...ITS
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT SUNDAY COULD COME VERY
CLOSE TO THE COLDEST MAXIMUM (HIGH) TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR ANY
DAY IN MARCH:
THE DAILY RECORDS FOR COLDEST MAX TEMP STAND AS FOLLOWS:
- MARCH 1: GRAND ISLAND...10 IN 1922
HASTINGS...15 IN 1980, 1916, 1913
- MARCH 2: GRAND ISLAND...10 IN 2002
HASTINGS...11 IN 2002
- MARCH 3: GRAND ISLAND...8 IN 1916
HASTINGS...10 IN 2002
THE COLDEST MAX TEMP ON RECORD FOR ANY DAY IN MARCH:
- GRAND ISLAND: 4 DEGREES ON 3-10-1948
- HASTINGS: 3 DEGREES ON 3-11-1948
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH/HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
945 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
HAD TO BACKTRACK ON THE CLOUD COVER CHANGES NOW THAT THE FIRST
VISIBLE SAT IMAGES ARE AVAILABLE. A SHIELD OF 1200-2800 FT
OVERCAST IS ADVANCING SE THRU THE SANDHILLS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SO ANY LITTLE SUN THIS MORNING OVER S-CNTRL NEB WILL SOON END.
S OF THE SNOWPACK OVER N-CNTRL KS...IT`S SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY
NICE DAY AND WE COULD BE A LITTLE LOW ON HIGH TEMPS BASED ON
MORNING SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE RESTRAINS
CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING TEMPS JUST YET.
HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO DEWPOINTS THRU SUNSET. WE
WERE NOT LOW ENOUGH NE OF THE TRI-CITIES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FCST
USING THE CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE. BASED ON
SATELLITE...CLOUDS WERE BACKED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
NOT AS MUCH AS NECESSARY. BUT BELIEVE WE HAVE TRENDED THE FCST IN
THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
THE FRONT IS PROGRESSING THRU THE SANDHILLS AND PANHANDLE. I LIKE
THE WINDS WE HAVE IN THE FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
THE FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS IS ON THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY AND ANY ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION...WHILE TO THE SOUTH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING
EASTWARD ACROSS OK/SOUTHERN KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WAS IN PLACE WITH LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERS LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST SD AND SOUTHEAST
CO. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CROSS THE PLAINS TODAY
WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHERN WY EARLY THIS MORNING.
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM CROSSING KS/OK SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
AREA BUT DID INCLUDE SOME SILENT POPS IN KS IN CASE IT MIGRATES A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. OTHERWISE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD
REACH OUR NW CWA BY MID DAY AND MOVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT...TEMPS
LOOK TO WARM AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND RAISED HIGHS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPS WITH READINGS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE BUT NOT
AS WARM AS THE RAP SUGGESTS. TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSER TODAY...THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH STEADYING/FALLING
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COMBINED WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL
BRING THE CHC FOR LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES DURING THE AFTN/EVE. PCPN TYPE OF R/S WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW WARM TEMPS RISE BEFORE COOLING/FALLING WITH CAA BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON WHETHER PCPN WILL BE MORE THAN A
TRACE EVENT OF FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OR WHETHER LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE CARRIED LOW POPS WITH OUR CWA ON THE BUFFER OF
BETTER CHCS FOR ACCUMULATIONS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. ALSO
TODAY...3 HR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AVERAGE 4MB AND WINDS
WILL INCREASE FM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY FROM THE NORTH INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -18C ACROSS OUR NORTH BY MORNING AND IN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. CURRENT
WIND CHILL VALUES ARE THE COLDEST ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
IN NEBRASKA WHERE VALUES DROP TO THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW ZERO
RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. ISENTROPIC
LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NW ZONES TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM AND INCLUDED LOW POPS
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIES WITH THE
FIRST 36 HRS OR SO...AS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CHANCES TAKE AIM ON
THE PLAINS.
THE GENERAL STORY FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME HASNT
CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE CWA COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT HUDSON BAY LOW...AS WELL AS A
STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. WILL
STATE UPFRONT THAT CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO
THE EVENT...IS ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT REMAIN.
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO START ROLLING
IN FROM THE NW AS THE BASE OF THAT NRN DISTURBANCE SWINGS MAINLY
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. A FEW MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
COUPLING OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS IN THE AREA...OTHERS NOT SO
MUCH...BUT ALL AGREE WITH THE STRONGEST JET STREAK BEING WELL NORTH
OF THE CWA...AND ALSO EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASED MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING...WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS OF MODELS HAVING
SHOWN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT. LATEST RUNS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE MORE FOCUSED AREA OF PRECIPITATION SLIDING ACROSS MAINLY
THE NRN HALF OF NEB...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CWA ROUGHLY
ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. OUTSIDE OF THE 00Z GFS...OTHER MODELS
SHOWING PRETTY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE SOUTH...CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET THANKS TO A WARMER NOSE ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP THAT SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION GOING. OTHERWISE PTYPE FURTHER NORTH AND THEN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE SNOW.
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT HELPED
WITH CONFIDENCE. IF YOU TAKE THE 06Z NAM AS IS...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH COMPLETELY SHUTS OFF PRECIPITATION
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE CWA. OTHERS ARE NOT QUITE SO DRAMATIC...AND
WHILE BETTER FOCUS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH...THE CWA IS NOT OUT OF THE
CLEAR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST...WHILE IT WEAKENS/FILLS QUITE A BIT ONCE ITS INLAND...IS
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES DURING THIS PERIOD.
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD LIES WITH THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THAT
WRN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WHILE SATURDAYS BETTER SNOW CHANCES
LIE ACROSS NRN LOCATIONS...SUNDAYS FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SRN CWA.
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING ANYWHERE FROM
SRN NEB TO OK.
AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS GO...DIDNT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST...AND CURRENTLY HAVE ANYWHERE FROM 2 IN THE WEST
TO ARND 4.5 IN THE FAR SE CORNER. HOWEVER...LIKE MENTIONED
ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE...SO EXPECT THERE TO BE
ADJUSTMENTS AS WE GET CLOSER. REMEMBER THAT WRN SYSTEM ISNT EVEN ON
SHORE YET...AND ITS THAT SYSTEM MODELS HAVE SOME BIGGER
DIFFERENCES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON UPCOMING RUNS TO SEE IF
THEY TREND TOWARD SOMETHING LIKE THAT 06Z NAM...SUGGESTING AFTER
ROUGHLY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...WE COULD BE DONE WITH PRECIP...AS IT
KEEPS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT ACROSS KS/OK. CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS ARE NOT TRENDED THAT WAY...BUT ITS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. IN REGARD TO ANY KIND OF WINTER HEADLINE...WILL LET DAY CREW GET
A FRESH SET OF MODELS AND TRY TO PIN MORE DETAILS DOWN. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE ONE WILL BE NEEDED BETWEEN THE COMBO OF SNOW AND WIND
CHILLS...JUST TO MANY UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH ONE.
ITS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WOULD BE ACCOMPANYING
THESE SNOW CHANCES THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT UNFORTUNATELY HASNT
CHANGED. STILL LOOKING AT A BITTERLY COLD WEEKEND...AFTER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS COLDER...WITH
FORECAST HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. COMBINED WITH AT TIMES BREEZY N/NE WINDS...WIND CHILL
VALUES DROPPING NEAR/BELOW -20 STILL IN THE FORECAST.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...AND ARE EXPECTING TO SEE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE UPPER LEVELS...GENERALLY
REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF HERE...BUT AT THIS POINT UNTIL
THINGS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THE FORECAST IS DRY. THIS LATEST
BATCH OF BITTERLY COLD AIR ALOFT GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
850MB TEMPS GOING FROM ROUGHLY -10 TO -20 SUNDAY MORNING TO POSSIBLY
5 T0 10 ABOVE ZERO FOR THE TUES THROUGH THURS PERIOD. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE TEENS FOR MONDAY TO 40S/50S FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TRANSITIONING NORTH
AND INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
20KTS AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCLUDED A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN STEADY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE NORTH AND CIGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 726 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
AVERAGE FEB TEMP AT GRAND ISLAND: AS OF MIDNIGHT IT SITS AT 23.4F
AND GIVEN THE LOW OF 15F THIS MORNING...AND THE PROJECTED HIGH
TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE GRI WILL FINISH THE MONTH WITH AN AVG TEMP
OF 23.5F /5.5 COLDER THAN NORMAL/. THAT WILL MAKE THIS THE
COLDEST FEB SINCE 2001 WHEN THE AVG TEMP WAS 20.6F.
FOLLOWING BELOW IS A RECAP OF THE DAILY RECORD COLD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS THAT COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE DAILY RECORDS...ITS
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT SUNDAY COULD COME VERY
CLOSE TO THE COLDEST MAXIMUM (HIGH) TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR ANY
DAY IN MARCH:
THE DAILY RECORDS FOR COLDEST MAX TEMP STAND AS FOLLOWS:
- MARCH 1: GRAND ISLAND...10 IN 1922
HASTINGS...15 IN 1980, 1916, 1913
- MARCH 2: GRAND ISLAND...10 IN 2002
HASTINGS...11 IN 2002
- MARCH 3: GRAND ISLAND...8 IN 1916
HASTINGS...10 IN 2002
THE COLDEST MAX TEMP ON RECORD FOR ANY DAY IN MARCH:
- GRAND ISLAND: 4 DEGREES ON 3-10-1948
- HASTINGS: 3 DEGREES ON 3-11-1948
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...FAY
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH/HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
846 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
NO SUBSTATIVE CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE. BASED ON
SATELLITE...CLOUDS WERE BACKED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
NOT AS MUCH AS NECESSARY. BUT BELIEVE WE HAVE TRENDED THE FCST IN
THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
THE FRONT IS PROGRESSING THRU THE SANDHILLS AND PANHANDLE. I LIKE
THE WINDS WE HAVE IN THE FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
THE FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS IS ON THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY AND ANY ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION...WHILE TO THE SOUTH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING
EASTWARD ACROSS OK/SOUTHERN KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WAS IN PLACE WITH LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERS LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST SD AND SOUTHEAST
CO. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CROSS THE PLAINS TODAY
WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHERN WY EARLY THIS MORNING.
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM CROSSING KS/OK SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
AREA BUT DID INCLUDE SOME SILENT POPS IN KS IN CASE IT MIGRATES A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. OTHERWISE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD
REACH OUR NW CWA BY MID DAY AND MOVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT...TEMPS
LOOK TO WARM AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND RAISED HIGHS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPS WITH READINGS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE BUT NOT
AS WARM AS THE RAP SUGGESTS. TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSER TODAY...THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH STEADYING/FALLING
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COMBINED WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL
BRING THE CHC FOR LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES DURING THE AFTN/EVE. PCPN TYPE OF R/S WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW WARM TEMPS RISE BEFORE COOLING/FALLING WITH CAA BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON WHETHER PCPN WILL BE MORE THAN A
TRACE EVENT OF FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OR WHETHER LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE CARRIED LOW POPS WITH OUR CWA ON THE BUFFER OF
BETTER CHCS FOR ACCUMULATIONS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. ALSO
TODAY...3 HR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AVERAGE 4MB AND WINDS
WILL INCREASE FM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY FROM THE NORTH INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -18C ACROSS OUR NORTH BY MORNING AND IN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. CURRENT
WIND CHILL VALUES ARE THE COLDEST ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
IN NEBRASKA WHERE VALUES DROP TO THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW ZERO
RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. ISENTROPIC
LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NW ZONES TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM AND INCLUDED LOW POPS
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIES WITH THE
FIRST 36 HRS OR SO...AS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CHANCES TAKE AIM ON
THE PLAINS.
THE GENERAL STORY FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME HASNT
CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE CWA COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT HUDSON BAY LOW...AS WELL AS A
STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. WILL
STATE UPFRONT THAT CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO
THE EVENT...IS ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT REMAIN.
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO START ROLLING
IN FROM THE NW AS THE BASE OF THAT NRN DISTURBANCE SWINGS MAINLY
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. A FEW MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
COUPLING OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS IN THE AREA...OTHERS NOT SO
MUCH...BUT ALL AGREE WITH THE STRONGEST JET STREAK BEING WELL NORTH
OF THE CWA...AND ALSO EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASED MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING...WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS OF MODELS HAVING
SHOWN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT. LATEST RUNS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE MORE FOCUSED AREA OF PRECIPITATION SLIDING ACROSS MAINLY
THE NRN HALF OF NEB...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CWA ROUGHLY
ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. OUTSIDE OF THE 00Z GFS...OTHER MODELS
SHOWING PRETTY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE SOUTH...CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET THANKS TO A WARMER NOSE ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP THAT SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION GOING. OTHERWISE PTYPE FURTHER NORTH AND THEN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE SNOW.
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT HELPED
WITH CONFIDENCE. IF YOU TAKE THE 06Z NAM AS IS...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH COMPLETELY SHUTS OFF PRECIPITATION
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE CWA. OTHERS ARE NOT QUITE SO DRAMATIC...AND
WHILE BETTER FOCUS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH...THE CWA IS NOT OUT OF THE
CLEAR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST...WHILE IT WEAKENS/FILLS QUITE A BIT ONCE ITS INLAND...IS
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES DURING THIS PERIOD.
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD LIES WITH THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THAT
WRN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WHILE SATURDAYS BETTER SNOW CHANCES
LIE ACROSS NRN LOCATIONS...SUNDAYS FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SRN CWA.
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING ANYWHERE FROM
SRN NEB TO OK.
AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS GO...DIDNT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST...AND CURRENTLY HAVE ANYWHERE FROM 2 IN THE WEST
TO ARND 4.5 IN THE FAR SE CORNER. HOWEVER...LIKE MENTIONED
ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE...SO EXPECT THERE TO BE
ADJUSTMENTS AS WE GET CLOSER. REMEMBER THAT WRN SYSTEM ISNT EVEN ON
SHORE YET...AND ITS THAT SYSTEM MODELS HAVE SOME BIGGER
DIFFERENCES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON UPCOMING RUNS TO SEE IF
THEY TREND TOWARD SOMETHING LIKE THAT 06Z NAM...SUGGESTING AFTER
ROUGHLY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...WE COULD BE DONE WITH PRECIP...AS IT
KEEPS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT ACROSS KS/OK. CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS ARE NOT TRENDED THAT WAY...BUT ITS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. IN REGARD TO ANY KIND OF WINTER HEADLINE...WILL LET DAY CREW GET
A FRESH SET OF MODELS AND TRY TO PIN MORE DETAILS DOWN. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE ONE WILL BE NEEDED BETWEEN THE COMBO OF SNOW AND WIND
CHILLS...JUST TO MANY UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH ONE.
ITS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WOULD BE ACCOMPANYING
THESE SNOW CHANCES THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT UNFORTUNATELY HASNT
CHANGED. STILL LOOKING AT A BITTERLY COLD WEEKEND...AFTER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS COLDER...WITH
FORECAST HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. COMBINED WITH AT TIMES BREEZY N/NE WINDS...WIND CHILL
VALUES DROPPING NEAR/BELOW -20 STILL IN THE FORECAST.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...AND ARE EXPECTING TO SEE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE UPPER LEVELS...GENERALLY
REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF HERE...BUT AT THIS POINT UNTIL
THINGS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THE FORECAST IS DRY. THIS LATEST
BATCH OF BITTERLY COLD AIR ALOFT GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
850MB TEMPS GOING FROM ROUGHLY -10 TO -20 SUNDAY MORNING TO POSSIBLY
5 T0 10 ABOVE ZERO FOR THE TUES THROUGH THURS PERIOD. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE TEENS FOR MONDAY TO 40S/50S FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TRANSITIONING NORTH
AND INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
20KTS AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCLUDED A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN STEADY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE NORTH AND CIGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 726 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
AVERAGE FEB TEMP AT GRAND ISLAND: AS OF MIDNIGHT IT SITS AT 23.4F
AND GIVEN THE LOW OF 15F THIS MORNING...AND THE PROJECTED HIGH
TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE GRI WILL FINISH THE MONTH WITH AN AVG TEMP
OF 23.5F /5.5 COLDER THAN NORMAL/. THAT WILL MAKE THIS THE
COLDEST FEB SINCE 2001 WHEN THE AVG TEMP WAS 20.6F.
FOLLOWING BELOW IS A RECAP OF THE DAILY RECORD COLD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS THAT COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE DAILY RECORDS...ITS
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT SUNDAY COULD COME VERY
CLOSE TO THE COLDEST MAXIMUM (HIGH) TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR ANY
DAY IN MARCH:
THE DAILY RECORDS FOR COLDEST MAX TEMP STAND AS FOLLOWS:
- MARCH 1: GRAND ISLAND...10 IN 1922
HASTINGS...15 IN 1980, 1916, 1913
- MARCH 2: GRAND ISLAND...10 IN 2002
HASTINGS...11 IN 2002
- MARCH 3: GRAND ISLAND...8 IN 1916
HASTINGS...10 IN 2002
THE COLDEST MAX TEMP ON RECORD FOR ANY DAY IN MARCH:
- GRAND ISLAND: 4 DEGREES ON 3-10-1948
- HASTINGS: 3 DEGREES ON 3-11-1948
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...FAY
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH/HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
726 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
PLEASE SEE UPDATED CLIMATE SECTION FOR INFO ON WHERE THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMP WILL SETTLE AT GRAND ISLAND. JH
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
THE FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS IS ON THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY AND ANY ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION...WHILE TO THE SOUTH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING
EASTWARD ACROSS OK/SOUTHERN KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WAS IN PLACE WITH LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERS LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST SD AND SOUTHEAST
CO. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CROSS THE PLAINS TODAY
WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHERN WY EARLY THIS MORNING.
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM CROSSING KS/OK SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
AREA BUT DID INCLUDE SOME SILENT POPS IN KS IN CASE IT MIGRATES A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. OTHERWISE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD
REACH OUR NW CWA BY MID DAY AND MOVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT...TEMPS
LOOK TO WARM AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND RAISED HIGHS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPS WITH READINGS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE BUT NOT
AS WARM AS THE RAP SUGGESTS. TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSER TODAY...THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH STEADYING/FALLING
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COMBINED WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL
BRING THE CHC FOR LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES DURING THE AFTN/EVE. PCPN TYPE OF R/S WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW WARM TEMPS RISE BEFORE COOLING/FALLING WITH CAA BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON WHETHER PCPN WILL BE MORE THAN A
TRACE EVENT OF FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OR WHETHER LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE CARRIED LOW POPS WITH OUR CWA ON THE BUFFER OF
BETTER CHCS FOR ACCUMULATIONS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. ALSO
TODAY...3 HR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AVERAGE 4MB AND WINDS
WILL INCREASE FM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY FROM THE NORTH INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -18C ACROSS OUR NORTH BY MORNING AND IN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. CURRENT
WIND CHILL VALUES ARE THE COLDEST ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
IN NEBRASKA WHERE VALUES DROP TO THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW ZERO
RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. ISENTROPIC
LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NW ZONES TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM AND INCLUDED LOW POPS
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIES WITH THE
FIRST 36 HRS OR SO...AS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CHANCES TAKE AIM ON
THE PLAINS.
THE GENERAL STORY FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME HASNT
CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE CWA COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT HUDSON BAY LOW...AS WELL AS A
STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. WILL
STATE UPFRONT THAT CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO
THE EVENT...IS ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT REMAIN.
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO START ROLLING
IN FROM THE NW AS THE BASE OF THAT NRN DISTURBANCE SWINGS MAINLY
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. A FEW MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
COUPLING OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS IN THE AREA...OTHERS NOT SO
MUCH...BUT ALL AGREE WITH THE STRONGEST JET STREAK BEING WELL NORTH
OF THE CWA...AND ALSO EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASED MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING...WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS OF MODELS HAVING
SHOWN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT. LATEST RUNS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE MORE FOCUSED AREA OF PRECIPITATION SLIDING ACROSS MAINLY
THE NRN HALF OF NEB...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CWA ROUGHLY
ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. OUTSIDE OF THE 00Z GFS...OTHER MODELS
SHOWING PRETTY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE SOUTH...CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET THANKS TO A WARMER NOSE ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP THAT SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION GOING. OTHERWISE PTYPE FURTHER NORTH AND THEN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE SNOW.
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT HELPED
WITH CONFIDENCE. IF YOU TAKE THE 06Z NAM AS IS...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH COMPLETELY SHUTS OFF PRECIPITATION
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE CWA. OTHERS ARE NOT QUITE SO DRAMATIC...AND
WHILE BETTER FOCUS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH...THE CWA IS NOT OUT OF THE
CLEAR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST...WHILE IT WEAKENS/FILLS QUITE A BIT ONCE ITS INLAND...IS
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES DURING THIS PERIOD.
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD LIES WITH THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THAT
WRN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WHILE SATURDAYS BETTER SNOW CHANCES
LIE ACROSS NRN LOCATIONS...SUNDAYS FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SRN CWA.
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING ANYWHERE FROM
SRN NEB TO OK.
AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS GO...DIDNT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST...AND CURRENTLY HAVE ANYWHERE FROM 2 IN THE WEST
TO ARND 4.5 IN THE FAR SE CORNER. HOWEVER...LIKE MENTIONED
ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE...SO EXPECT THERE TO BE
ADJUSTMENTS AS WE GET CLOSER. REMEMBER THAT WRN SYSTEM ISNT EVEN ON
SHORE YET...AND ITS THAT SYSTEM MODELS HAVE SOME BIGGER
DIFFERENCES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON UPCOMING RUNS TO SEE IF
THEY TREND TOWARD SOMETHING LIKE THAT 06Z NAM...SUGGESTING AFTER
ROUGHLY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...WE COULD BE DONE WITH PRECIP...AS IT
KEEPS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT ACROSS KS/OK. CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS ARE NOT TRENDED THAT WAY...BUT ITS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. IN REGARD TO ANY KIND OF WINTER HEADLINE...WILL LET DAY CREW GET
A FRESH SET OF MODELS AND TRY TO PIN MORE DETAILS DOWN. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE ONE WILL BE NEEDED BETWEEN THE COMBO OF SNOW AND WIND
CHILLS...JUST TO MANY UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH ONE.
ITS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WOULD BE ACCOMPANYING
THESE SNOW CHANCES THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT UNFORTUNATELY HASNT
CHANGED. STILL LOOKING AT A BITTERLY COLD WEEKEND...AFTER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS COLDER...WITH
FORECAST HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. COMBINED WITH AT TIMES BREEZY N/NE WINDS...WIND CHILL
VALUES DROPPING NEAR/BELOW -20 STILL IN THE FORECAST.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...AND ARE EXPECTING TO SEE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE UPPER LEVELS...GENERALLY
REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF HERE...BUT AT THIS POINT UNTIL
THINGS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THE FORECAST IS DRY. THIS LATEST
BATCH OF BITTERLY COLD AIR ALOFT GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
850MB TEMPS GOING FROM ROUGHLY -10 TO -20 SUNDAY MORNING TO POSSIBLY
5 T0 10 ABOVE ZERO FOR THE TUES THROUGH THURS PERIOD. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE TEENS FOR MONDAY TO 40S/50S FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TRANSITIONING NORTH
AND INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
20KTS AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCLUDED A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN STEADY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE NORTH AND CIGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 726 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
AVERAGE FEB TEMP AT GRAND ISLAND: AS OF MIDNIGHT IT SITS AT 23.4F
AND GIVEN THE LOW OF 15F THIS MORNING...AND THE PROJECTED HIGH
TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE GRI WILL FINISH THE MONTH WITH AN AVG TEMP
OF 23.5F /5.5 COLDER THAN NORMAL/. THAT WILL MAKE THIS THE
COLDEST FEB SINCE 2001 WHEN THE AVG TEMP WAS 20.6F.
FOLLOWING BELOW IS A RECAP OF THE DAILY RECORD COLD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS THAT COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE DAILY RECORDS...ITS
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT SUNDAY COULD COME VERY
CLOSE TO THE COLDEST MAXIMUM (HIGH) TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR ANY
DAY IN MARCH:
THE DAILY RECORDS FOR COLDEST MAX TEMP STAND AS FOLLOWS:
- MARCH 1: GRAND ISLAND...10 IN 1922
HASTINGS...15 IN 1980, 1916, 1913
- MARCH 2: GRAND ISLAND...10 IN 2002
HASTINGS...11 IN 2002
- MARCH 3: GRAND ISLAND...8 IN 1916
HASTINGS...10 IN 2002
THE COLDEST MAX TEMP ON RECORD FOR ANY DAY IN MARCH:
- GRAND ISLAND: 4 DEGREES ON 3-10-1948
- HASTINGS: 3 DEGREES ON 3-11-1948
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...FAY
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH/HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
510 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
THE FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS IS ON THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY AND ANY ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION...WHILE TO THE SOUTH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING
EASTWARD ACROSS OK/SOUTHERN KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WAS IN PLACE WITH LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERS LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST SD AND SOUTHEAST
CO. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CROSS THE PLAINS TODAY
WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHERN WY EARLY THIS MORNING.
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM CROSSING KS/OK SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
AREA BUT DID INCLUDE SOME SILENT POPS IN KS IN CASE IT MIGRATES A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. OTHERWISE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD
REACH OUR NW CWA BY MID DAY AND MOVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT...TEMPS
LOOK TO WARM AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND RAISED HIGHS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPS WITH READINGS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE BUT NOT
AS WARM AS THE RAP SUGGESTS. TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSER TODAY...THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH STEADYING/FALLING
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COMBINED WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL
BRING THE CHC FOR LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES DURING THE AFTN/EVE. PCPN TYPE OF R/S WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW WARM TEMPS RISE BEFORE COOLING/FALLING WITH CAA BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON WHETHER PCPN WILL BE MORE THAN A
TRACE EVENT OF FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OR WHETHER LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE CARRIED LOW POPS WITH OUR CWA ON THE BUFFER OF
BETTER CHCS FOR ACCUMULATIONS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. ALSO
TODAY...3 HR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AVERAGE 4MB AND WINDS
WILL INCREASE FM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY FROM THE NORTH INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -18C ACROSS OUR NORTH BY MORNING AND IN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. CURRENT
WIND CHILL VALUES ARE THE COLDEST ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
IN NEBRASKA WHERE VALUES DROP TO THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW ZERO
RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. ISENTROPIC
LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NW ZONES TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM AND INCLUDED LOW POPS
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIES WITH THE
FIRST 36 HRS OR SO...AS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CHANCES TAKE AIM ON
THE PLAINS.
THE GENERAL STORY FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME HASNT
CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE CWA COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT HUDSON BAY LOW...AS WELL AS A
STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. WILL
STATE UPFRONT THAT CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO
THE EVENT...IS ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT REMAIN.
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO START ROLLING
IN FROM THE NW AS THE BASE OF THAT NRN DISTURBANCE SWINGS MAINLY
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. A FEW MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
COUPLING OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS IN THE AREA...OTHERS NOT SO
MUCH...BUT ALL AGREE WITH THE STRONGEST JET STREAK BEING WELL NORTH
OF THE CWA...AND ALSO EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASED MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING...WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS OF MODELS HAVING
SHOWN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT. LATEST RUNS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE MORE FOCUSED AREA OF PRECIPITATION SLIDING ACROSS MAINLY
THE NRN HALF OF NEB...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CWA ROUGHLY
ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. OUTSIDE OF THE 00Z GFS...OTHER MODELS
SHOWING PRETTY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE SOUTH...CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET THANKS TO A WARMER NOSE ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP THAT SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION GOING. OTHERWISE PTYPE FURTHER NORTH AND THEN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE SNOW.
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT HELPED
WITH CONFIDENCE. IF YOU TAKE THE 06Z NAM AS IS...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH COMPLETELY SHUTS OFF PRECIPITATION
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE CWA. OTHERS ARE NOT QUITE SO DRAMATIC...AND
WHILE BETTER FOCUS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH...THE CWA IS NOT OUT OF THE
CLEAR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST...WHILE IT WEAKENS/FILLS QUITE A BIT ONCE ITS INLAND...IS
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES DURING THIS PERIOD.
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD LIES WITH THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THAT
WRN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WHILE SATURDAYS BETTER SNOW CHANCES
LIE ACROSS NRN LOCATIONS...SUNDAYS FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SRN CWA.
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING ANYWHERE FROM
SRN NEB TO OK.
AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS GO...DIDNT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST...AND CURRENTLY HAVE ANYWHERE FROM 2 IN THE WEST
TO ARND 4.5 IN THE FAR SE CORNER. HOWEVER...LIKE MENTIONED
ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE...SO EXPECT THERE TO BE
ADJUSTMENTS AS WE GET CLOSER. REMEMBER THAT WRN SYSTEM ISNT EVEN ON
SHORE YET...AND ITS THAT SYSTEM MODELS HAVE SOME BIGGER
DIFFERENCES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON UPCOMING RUNS TO SEE IF
THEY TREND TOWARD SOMETHING LIKE THAT 06Z NAM...SUGGESTING AFTER
ROUGHLY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...WE COULD BE DONE WITH PRECIP...AS IT
KEEPS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT ACROSS KS/OK. CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS ARE NOT TRENDED THAT WAY...BUT ITS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. IN REGARD TO ANY KIND OF WINTER HEADLINE...WILL LET DAY CREW GET
A FRESH SET OF MODELS AND TRY TO PIN MORE DETAILS DOWN. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE ONE WILL BE NEEDED BETWEEN THE COMBO OF SNOW AND WIND
CHILLS...JUST TO MANY UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH ONE.
ITS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WOULD BE ACCOMPANYING
THESE SNOW CHANCES THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT UNFORTUNATELY HASNT
CHANGED. STILL LOOKING AT A BITTERLY COLD WEEKEND...AFTER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS COLDER...WITH
FORECAST HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. COMBINED WITH AT TIMES BREEZY N/NE WINDS...WIND CHILL
VALUES DROPPING NEAR/BELOW -20 STILL IN THE FORECAST.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...AND ARE EXPECTING TO SEE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE UPPER LEVELS...GENERALLY
REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF HERE...BUT AT THIS POINT UNTIL
THINGS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THE FORECAST IS DRY. THIS LATEST
BATCH OF BITTERLY COLD AIR ALOFT GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
850MB TEMPS GOING FROM ROUGHLY -10 TO -20 SUNDAY MORNING TO POSSIBLY
5 T0 10 ABOVE ZERO FOR THE TUES THROUGH THURS PERIOD. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE TEENS FOR MONDAY TO 40S/50S FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TRANSITIONING NORTH
AND INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
20KTS AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCLUDED A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN STEADY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE NORTH AND CIGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST THU FEB 27 2014
FOLLOWING BELOW IS A RECAP OF THE DAILY RECORD COLD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS THAT COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE DAILY
RECORDS...ITS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT SUNDAY
COULD COME VERY CLOSE TO THE COLDEST MAXIMUM (HIGH) TEMPERATURE ON
RECORD FOR ANY DAY IN MARCH:
THE DAILY RECORDS FOR COLDEST MAX TEMP STAND AS FOLLOWS:
- MARCH 1: GRAND ISLAND...10 IN 1922
HASTINGS...15 IN 1980, 1916, 1913
- MARCH 2: GRAND ISLAND...10 IN 2002
HASTINGS...11 IN 2002
- MARCH 3: GRAND ISLAND...8 IN 1916
HASTINGS...10 IN 2002
THE COLDEST MAX TEMP ON RECORD FOR ANY DAY IN MARCH:
- GRAND ISLAND: 4 DEGREES ON 3-10-1948
- HASTINGS: 3 DEGREES ON 3-11-1948
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...FAY
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
358 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
THE FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIODS IS ON THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY AND ANY ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION...WHILE TO THE SOUTH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING
EASTWARD ACROSS OK/SOUTHERN KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WAS IN PLACE WITH LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERS LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST SD AND SOUTHEAST
CO. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CROSS THE PLAINS TODAY
WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHERN WY EARLY THIS MORNING.
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM CROSSING KS/OK SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
AREA BUT DID INCLUDE SOME SILENT POPS IN KS IN CASE IT MIGRATES A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. OTHERWISE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD
REACH OUR NW CWA BY MID DAY AND MOVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT...TEMPS
LOOK TO WARM AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND RAISED HIGHS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES FOR MAX TEMPS WITH READINGS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE BUT NOT
AS WARM AS THE RAP SUGGESTS. TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSER TODAY...THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH STEADYING/FALLING
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COMBINED WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL
BRING THE CHC FOR LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES DURING THE AFTN/EVE. PCPN TYPE OF R/S WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW WARM TEMPS RISE BEFORE COOLING/FALLING WITH CAA BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON WHETHER PCPN WILL BE MORE THAN A
TRACE EVENT OF FLURRIES/SPRINKLES OR WHETHER LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. HAVE CARRIED LOW POPS WITH OUR CWA ON THE BUFFER OF
BETTER CHCS FOR ACCUMULATIONS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. ALSO
TODAY...3 HR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AVERAGE 4MB AND WINDS
WILL INCREASE FM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY FROM THE NORTH INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -18C ACROSS OUR NORTH BY MORNING AND IN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. CURRENT
WIND CHILL VALUES ARE THE COLDEST ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
IN NEBRASKA WHERE VALUES DROP TO THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW ZERO
RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. ISENTROPIC
LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NW ZONES TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM AND INCLUDED LOW POPS
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIES WITH THE
FIRST 36 HRS OR SO...AS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CHANCES TAKE AIM ON
THE PLAINS.
THE GENERAL STORY FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME HASNT
CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE CWA COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT HUDSON BAY LOW...AS WELL AS A
STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. WILL
STATE UPFRONT THAT CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO
THE EVENT...IS ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT REMAIN.
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO START ROLLING
IN FROM THE NW AS THE BASE OF THAT NRN DISTURBANCE SWINGS MAINLY
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. A FEW MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
COUPLING OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS IN THE AREA...OTHERS NOT SO
MUCH...BUT ALL AGREE WITH THE STRONGEST JET STREAK BEING WELL NORTH
OF THE CWA...AND ALSO EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASED MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING...WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS OF MODELS HAVING
SHOWN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT. LATEST RUNS HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE MORE FOCUSED AREA OF PRECIPITATION SLIDING ACROSS MAINLY
THE NRN HALF OF NEB...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CWA ROUGHLY
ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. OUTSIDE OF THE 00Z GFS...OTHER MODELS
SHOWING PRETTY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE SOUTH...CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET THANKS TO A WARMER NOSE ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP THAT SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION GOING. OTHERWISE PTYPE FURTHER NORTH AND THEN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE SNOW.
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT HELPED
WITH CONFIDENCE. IF YOU TAKE THE 06Z NAM AS IS...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH COMPLETELY SHUTS OFF PRECIPITATION
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE CWA. OTHERS ARE NOT QUITE SO DRAMATIC...AND
WHILE BETTER FOCUS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH...THE CWA IS NOT OUT OF THE
CLEAR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST...WHILE IT WEAKENS/FILLS QUITE A BIT ONCE ITS INLAND...IS
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKIES DURING THIS PERIOD.
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...THE LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD LIES WITH THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THAT
WRN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WHILE SATURDAYS BETTER SNOW CHANCES
LIE ACROSS NRN LOCATIONS...SUNDAYS FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SRN CWA.
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING ANYWHERE FROM
SRN NEB TO OK.
AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS GO...DIDNT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST...AND CURRENTLY HAVE ANYWHERE FROM 2 IN THE WEST
TO ARND 4.5 IN THE FAR SE CORNER. HOWEVER...LIKE MENTIONED
ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE...SO EXPECT THERE TO BE
ADJUSTMENTS AS WE GET CLOSER. REMEMBER THAT WRN SYSTEM ISNT EVEN ON
SHORE YET...AND ITS THAT SYSTEM MODELS HAVE SOME BIGGER
DIFFERENCES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON UPCOMING RUNS TO SEE IF
THEY TREND TOWARD SOMETHING LIKE THAT 06Z NAM...SUGGESTING AFTER
ROUGHLY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...WE COULD BE DONE WITH PRECIP...AS IT
KEEPS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT ACROSS KS/OK. CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS ARE NOT TRENDED THAT WAY...BUT ITS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. IN REGARD TO ANY KIND OF WINTER HEADLINE...WILL LET DAY CREW GET
A FRESH SET OF MODELS AND TRY TO PIN MORE DETAILS DOWN. CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE ONE WILL BE NEEDED BETWEEN THE COMBO OF SNOW AND WIND
CHILLS...JUST TO MANY UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH ONE.
ITS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WOULD BE ACCOMPANYING
THESE SNOW CHANCES THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT UNFORTUNATELY HASNT
CHANGED. STILL LOOKING AT A BITTERLY COLD WEEKEND...AFTER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS COLDER...WITH
FORECAST HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. COMBINED WITH AT TIMES BREEZY N/NE WINDS...WIND CHILL
VALUES DROPPING NEAR/BELOW -20 STILL IN THE FORECAST.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...AND ARE EXPECTING TO SEE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE UPPER LEVELS...GENERALLY
REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF HERE...BUT AT THIS POINT UNTIL
THINGS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THE FORECAST IS DRY. THIS LATEST
BATCH OF BITTERLY COLD AIR ALOFT GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
850MB TEMPS GOING FROM ROUGHLY -10 TO -20 SUNDAY MORNING TO POSSIBLY
5 T0 10 ABOVE ZERO FOR THE TUES THROUGH THURS PERIOD. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE TEENS FOR MONDAY TO 40S/50S FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST THU FEB 27 2014
INCLUDED A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR KGRI THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT RAPIDLY INCREASE TO AROUND 45KTS. A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THER TERMINAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS SHIFTING NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS
POSSIBLE. CIGS ALSO LOWER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
HAVE KEPT CIGS AT MVFR FOLLOWING FROPA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST THU FEB 27 2014
FOLLOWING BELOW IS A RECAP OF THE DAILY RECORD COLD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS THAT COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE DAILY
RECORDS...ITS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT SUNDAY
COULD COME VERY CLOSE TO THE COLDEST MAXIMUM (HIGH) TEMPERATURE ON
RECORD FOR ANY DAY IN MARCH:
THE DAILY RECORDS FOR COLDEST MAX TEMP STAND AS FOLLOWS:
- MARCH 1: GRAND ISLAND...10 IN 1922
HASTINGS...15 IN 1980, 1916, 1913
- MARCH 2: GRAND ISLAND...10 IN 2002
HASTINGS...11 IN 2002
- MARCH 3: GRAND ISLAND...8 IN 1916
HASTINGS...10 IN 2002
THE COLDEST MAX TEMP ON RECORD FOR ANY DAY IN MARCH:
- GRAND ISLAND: 4 DEGREES ON 3-10-1948
- HASTINGS: 3 DEGREES ON 3-11-1948
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...FAY
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
450 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ALLOWING WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE SOME ROGUE GUSTS DUE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. ZFP UPDATE WAS TO
STRIP HEADLINE...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...447 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WIDESPREAD EXCURSIONS TO IFR AND LIFR CIGS
AND VIZ AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH WITH MT OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING THROUGH 21Z FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH LOW CIGS AND VIZ
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS CONTINUING AFTER 00Z.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW DOWN TO NEAR 6000 FEET TONIGHT BEFORE MIXING WITH RAIN
AGAIN SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. STRONG WINDS OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. A
POTENT COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY...
LEAVING BEHIND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH AS A COUPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE STATE. PERIODIC BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT THE PLAINS AND PATCHY CLOUD COVER WITH EVEN A FEW SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT THE HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A WELCOME SITE IT IS AS A DEEP FETCH OF RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN
SNOW IMPACTS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL
SHOWS THE CORE OF A WELL-DEFINED STORM SYSTEM CRASHING ONSHORE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A MASSIVE FETCH OF MOIST SW FLOW SHIFTING
INTO AZ AND NM. CIRA TOTAL PWAT VALUES ARE ABOVE 200PCT OF NORMAL IN
THIS PLUME AND IT WILL SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER NM THRU THIS EVENING. SFC
AND MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE TRENDING DOWN WITH THE AID OF EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING AND SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. SNOW REPORTS SO FAR RANGE
FROM ABOUT 1 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 7500 FT. THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTION
AGREES THE CURRENT PLUME WILL SHIFT SE OVER CENTRAL NM THRU THIS
EVENING THEN INTO SOUTHERN NM LATE TONIGHT.
A SECONDARY VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER COLD CORE WILL SHIFT
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...DELIVERING A SECONDARY
PEAK IN PRECIP COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THIS SECONDARY PRECIP
MAX. HOWEVER...BASED ON TREND OF LATEST HRRR AFTER 06Z CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WILL VERIFY THIS MAX ALONG
THE I-40/CONT DVD CORRIDOR INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN MTS LATE TONIGHT.
THE NE PLAINS WILL BE A TRICKY AREA AS WELL WITH SOME INCREDIBLE
SPATIAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ON THE LATEST 21Z OBS. THE FRONT HAS
PUSHED THROUGH TRINIDAD WHERE THE TEMP IS 21F WHILE RATON IS WINDY
WITH A TEMP OF 61F! MODELS ARE TRENDING THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY SO EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF ADVISORY SOUTH AND WEST. FOR THIS UPDATE
WILL EXPAND ADVISORY INTO RATON RIDGE ZONE. MODEL PROFILES OVER
THE NE SUGGEST A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW THRU AT
LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MID LEVEL COLDER AIR SLIDES OVER
AND CHANGES ALL ACTIVITY TO SNOW.
BEYOND SUNDAY...THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN WEST TO NW
FLOW THAT WILL SLIDE QUICKLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WHILE WINDS ARE PERIODICALLY BREEZY OUT
EAST. A FEW PERIODS OF THICK CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST PACIFIC TROUGH TO GRADUALLY CROSS THIS WEEKEND WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS HAVE
ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF BEGINNING A DOWNWARD TREND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT. A BAND OF MAINLY WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION OF NW NM...BRINGING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THAT AREA. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION LEVEL MAY ONLY DROP TO ABOUT 7000 FEET TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL REALLY BENEFIT FROM THE DWELL
TIME OF ALL THIS MOISTURE WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED IN ALL NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH NEARLY 20
INCHES.
A SECONDARY LOCATION FAVORED FOR ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND QUAY COUNTY...WHERE A POTENT BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIFT AS THE MOIST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH SLEET AND EVEN SOME
FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST
AREAS WILL FALL 35 TO 40 DEGREES SUNDAY FROM TODAYS READINGS LEAVING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S.
STRONG WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REBOUND THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A
NOTABLE EXCEPTION BEING SOME COOLER READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING
VERY WELL ON A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THIS WINTER...THE ECMWF IS DEEPER/WETTER/SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IS
SHALLOWER/DRIER/FASTER. GRIDS ARE ALIGNED WITH THE GFS SOLUTION FOR
NOW.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY QUICKLY TRANSITION TO GUSTY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BE OUR NEXT DAY WITH WIND AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FORECAST GRIDS CURRENTLY SHOW THE TYPICAL PATCH OF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AROUND CLINES CORNERS
AND SANTA ROSA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK FROM 3 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY.
VENTILATION-WISE...WATCH FOR POOR READINGS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW...SUNDAY.
ALSO...IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM...AREAS OF POOR
VENTILATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE
NORTHWESTWARD TO GALLUP AND FARMINGTON. FURTHER...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH COOL AND SETTLED AIR
FOR AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WEDNESDAY.
44
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ503-504-506-516-527-528-530-531-534.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ502-508-510>515.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ521-526.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ505-507.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
447 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WIDESPREAD EXCURSIONS TO IFR AND LIFR CIGS
AND VIZ AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH WITH MT OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING THROUGH 21Z FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH LOW CIGS AND VIZ
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS CONTINUING AFTER 00Z.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW DOWN TO NEAR 6000 FEET TONIGHT BEFORE MIXING WITH RAIN
AGAIN SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. STRONG WINDS OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. A
POTENT COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY...
LEAVING BEHIND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH AS A COUPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE STATE. PERIODIC BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT THE PLAINS AND PATCHY CLOUD COVER WITH EVEN A FEW SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT THE HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A WELCOME SITE IT IS AS A DEEP FETCH OF RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN
SNOW IMPACTS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL
SHOWS THE CORE OF A WELL-DEFINED STORM SYSTEM CRASHING ONSHORE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A MASSIVE FETCH OF MOIST SW FLOW SHIFTING
INTO AZ AND NM. CIRA TOTAL PWAT VALUES ARE ABOVE 200PCT OF NORMAL IN
THIS PLUME AND IT WILL SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER NM THRU THIS EVENING. SFC
AND MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE TRENDING DOWN WITH THE AID OF EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING AND SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. SNOW REPORTS SO FAR RANGE
FROM ABOUT 1 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 7500 FT. THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTION
AGREES THE CURRENT PLUME WILL SHIFT SE OVER CENTRAL NM THRU THIS
EVENING THEN INTO SOUTHERN NM LATE TONIGHT.
A SECONDARY VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER COLD CORE WILL SHIFT
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...DELIVERING A SECONDARY
PEAK IN PRECIP COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THIS SECONDARY PRECIP
MAX. HOWEVER...BASED ON TREND OF LATEST HRRR AFTER 06Z CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WILL VERIFY THIS MAX ALONG
THE I-40/CONT DVD CORRIDOR INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN MTS LATE TONIGHT.
THE NE PLAINS WILL BE A TRICKY AREA AS WELL WITH SOME INCREDIBLE
SPATIAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ON THE LATEST 21Z OBS. THE FRONT HAS
PUSHED THROUGH TRINIDAD WHERE THE TEMP IS 21F WHILE RATON IS WINDY
WITH A TEMP OF 61F! MODELS ARE TRENDING THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY SO EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF ADVISORY SOUTH AND WEST. FOR THIS UPDATE
WILL EXPAND ADVISORY INTO RATON RIDGE ZONE. MODEL PROFILES OVER
THE NE SUGGEST A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW THRU AT
LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MID LEVEL COLDER AIR SLIDES OVER
AND CHANGES ALL ACTIVITY TO SNOW.
BEYOND SUNDAY...THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN WEST TO NW
FLOW THAT WILL SLIDE QUICKLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WHILE WINDS ARE PERIODICALLY BREEZY OUT
EAST. A FEW PERIODS OF THICK CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST PACIFIC TROUGH TO GRADUALLY CROSS THIS WEEKEND WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS HAVE
ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF BEGINNING A DOWNWARD TREND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT. A BAND OF MAINLY WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION OF NW NM...BRINGING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THAT AREA. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION LEVEL MAY ONLY DROP TO ABOUT 7000 FEET TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL REALLY BENEFIT FROM THE DWELL
TIME OF ALL THIS MOISTURE WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED IN ALL NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH NEARLY 20
INCHES.
A SECONDARY LOCATION FAVORED FOR ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND QUAY COUNTY...WHERE A POTENT BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIFT AS THE MOIST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH SLEET AND EVEN SOME
FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST
AREAS WILL FALL 35 TO 40 DEGREES SUNDAY FROM TODAYS READINGS LEAVING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S.
STRONG WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REBOUND THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A
NOTABLE EXCEPTION BEING SOME COOLER READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING
VERY WELL ON A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THIS WINTER...THE ECMWF IS DEEPER/WETTER/SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IS
SHALLOWER/DRIER/FASTER. GRIDS ARE ALIGNED WITH THE GFS SOLUTION FOR
NOW.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY QUICKLY TRANSITION TO GUSTY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BE OUR NEXT DAY WITH WIND AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FORECAST GRIDS CURRENTLY SHOW THE TYPICAL PATCH OF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AROUND CLINES CORNERS
AND SANTA ROSA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK FROM 3 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY.
VENTILATION-WISE...WATCH FOR POOR READINGS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW...SUNDAY.
ALSO...IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM...AREAS OF POOR
VENTILATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE
NORTHWESTWARD TO GALLUP AND FARMINGTON. FURTHER...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH COOL AND SETTLED AIR
FOR AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WEDNESDAY.
44
&&
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ503-504-506-516-527-528-530-531-534.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ502-508-510>515.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ521-526.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ505-507.
&&
$$
GUYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
941 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BENEATH INTENSE WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE SHALLOW COLD
DOME. SLICKS SPOTS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS A RESULT.
LATEST DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF LIGHT
PRECIP AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES ATOP ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
ADDITIONALLY...A ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE
IN THE HRRR SOLUTIONS THE UPDATE WILL INCLUDE A ZONE OF HIGHER
THUNDER CHANCES...WHICH WILL ALSO CORRESPOND TO LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIP AMOUNTS. PRECIP TYPE FORECASTS WERE LEFT LARGELY IN PLACE
AS WE AWAIT ADDITIONAL DATA...HOWEVER THE TREND SEEMS TO BE TOWARD
A COLDER BOUNDARY TEMP WHICH WOULD FAVOR A QUICKER TRANSITION
TOWARD SLEET. THIS WILL BE FURTHER REVIEWED AS DATA BECOME
AVAILABLE. THE UPDATE ALSO ADJUSTED FOR THE OBSERVED TEMP TRENDS
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE POST FRONTAL COOLING. DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NE OK LATE TONIGHT...AND MOST
LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 17 21 7 20 / 80 80 60 10
FSM 34 36 16 28 / 80 100 80 10
MLC 26 28 12 25 / 70 90 60 10
BVO 14 18 2 19 / 80 80 60 10
FYV 24 27 6 22 / 90 100 80 10
BYV 21 24 6 20 / 90 100 90 10
MKO 23 26 10 23 / 80 90 70 10
MIO 14 19 2 18 / 90 80 70 10
F10 23 24 9 22 / 70 90 60 10
HHW 35 39 18 32 / 60 100 70 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...ICE STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ053-OKZ076.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ065-
OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-
OKZ074-OKZ075.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ020-
ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
549 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY AFFECT BVO/FYV/XNA AND PERHAPS
TUL/XNA THIS MORNING...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION EXPECTED. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR AT THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
MOISTURE TONIGHT AND AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO MVFR
CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE ACROSS TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
SHOWERS MAINLY THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-40. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT ONSET...THOUGH THE LATEST DATA FROM
THE HRRR SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL WARM UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS MORE
PRECIP MOVES IN AND SOUTH WINDS INCREASE. IN FACT...MOST AREAS
WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY DOWN SOUTH WHERE
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR.
THE BIG STORM TO HIT SOCAL TODAY WILL SWING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE HIGHER
LATITUDE FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE OUR WAY THIS WEEKEND.
THE SOURCE REGION FOR THIS AIRMASS IS NEAR THE POLE. IT WILL FEEL
MORE LIKE DECEMBER OR JANUARY BEHIND THIS FRONT...INSTEAD OF EARLY
MARCH. INCREASING LOW LVL FRONTOGENESIS WILL GET PRECIP GOING
SATURDAY NIGHT UP NORTH...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. A
SECONDARY ROUND OF PRECIP WITH THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...SHOWING BASICALLY TWO
EXTREMES IN THE WARM LAYER AND THE COLD LAYER CLOSER TO THE
GROUND. FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS LOOKS LIKE PRIMARILY A
SLEET STORM...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN NEAR ONSET.
THE COLD AIR NEAR THE GROUND WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH AND COLD ENOUGH
TO REFREEZE HYDROMETEORS BEFORE THEY REACH THE GROUND. FARTHER TO
THE EAST OVER NW AR AND NEIGHBORING E CNTRL OK...THE DEPTH OF THE
COLD AIR WILL NOT BE AS DEEP...WHICH HAS SOMETHING TO DO WITH THE
TERRAIN OF WESTERN AR. AS A RESULT...MORE ICING IS EXPECTED THERE
THAN POINTS WEST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE JUICY GULF AIRMASS
RIDING UP AND OVER THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL BE ENDING EXPECT
POSSIBLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS
AFOREMENTIONED. THE WARM LAYER WILL HAVE ERODED ENOUGH BY THIS
TIME TO FAVOR SNOW AND SOME SLEET. BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF
ACCUMULATING ICE AND SLEET FORECAST...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN HOISTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING THRU
SUNDAY EVENING. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY...DESPITE THE SUN RETURNING. MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IN A MUCH MORE ZONAL PATTERN OVER NOAM
BY THIS TIME.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE
AIRMASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED BY THIS TIME.
LACY
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR
OKZ049-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR
ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
436 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WINTRY PRECIP POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE ACROSS TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
SHOWERS MAINLY THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-40. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT ONSET...THOUGH THE LATEST DATA FROM
THE HRRR SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL WARM UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS MORE
PRECIP MOVES IN AND SOUTH WINDS INCREASE. IN FACT...MOST AREAS
WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY DOWN SOUTH WHERE
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR.
THE BIG STORM TO HIT SOCAL TODAY WILL SWING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE HIGHER
LATITUDE FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE OUR WAY THIS WEEKEND.
THE SOURCE REGION FOR THIS AIRMASS IS NEAR THE POLE. IT WILL FEEL
MORE LIKE DECEMBER OR JANUARY BEHIND THIS FRONT...INSTEAD OF EARLY
MARCH. INCREASING LOW LVL FRONTOGENESIS WILL GET PRECIP GOING
SATURDAY NIGHT UP NORTH...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. A
SECONDARY ROUND OF PRECIP WITH THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...SHOWING BASICALLY TWO
EXTREMES IN THE WARM LAYER AND THE COLD LAYER CLOSER TO THE
GROUND. FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS LOOKS LIKE PRIMARILY A
SLEET STORM...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN NEAR ONSET.
THE COLD AIR NEAR THE GROUND WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH AND COLD ENOUGH
TO REFREEZE HYDROMETEORS BEFORE THEY REACH THE GROUND. FARTHER TO
THE EAST OVER NW AR AND NEIGHBORING E CNTRL OK...THE DEPTH OF THE
COLD AIR WILL NOT BE AS DEEP...WHICH HAS SOMETHING TO DO WITH THE
TERRAIN OF WESTERN AR. AS A RESULT...MORE ICING IS EXPECTED THERE
THAN POINTS WEST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE JUICY GULF AIRMASS
RIDING UP AND OVER THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL BE ENDING EXPECT
POSSIBLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS
AFOREMENTIONED. THE WARM LAYER WILL HAVE ERODED ENOUGH BY THIS
TIME TO FAVOR SNOW AND SOME SLEET. BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF
ACCUMULATING ICE AND SLEET FORECAST...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN HOISTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING THRU
SUNDAY EVENING. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY...DESPITE THE SUN RETURNING. MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IN A MUCH MORE ZONAL PATTERN OVER NOAM
BY THIS TIME.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN. WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE
AIRMASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED BY THIS TIME.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 60 36 54 22 / 50 0 10 70
FSM 55 40 65 40 / 30 0 10 60
MLC 64 40 67 31 / 20 0 10 60
BVO 55 29 46 17 / 60 0 10 70
FYV 50 33 61 30 / 50 0 10 60
BYV 47 33 60 27 / 60 0 10 60
MKO 59 38 63 27 / 30 0 10 60
MIO 49 29 52 19 / 60 10 10 70
F10 62 39 62 26 / 20 0 10 70
HHW 66 44 72 46 / 20 0 10 50
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR
OKZ049-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR
ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
118 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD OVER PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT WITH BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS IN STORE. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. A WIDE-REACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE IN QUICKLY FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE
STORM WILL SLIDE ALONG THE OLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE LAID OUT TO OUR
SOUTH. IT WILL MAKE AN IMPACT ON ALL OF PA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH ALL
OF MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FAIR AND CONTINUED COLD WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
WINDS ARE SLACKENING AND TEMPS COOLING AS ANTICIPATED. WIND CHILL
ADVY LOOKING ON TRACK. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN TIER WHICH AREA TOUGH TO PICK UP ON IR
CHANNELS - EVEN THE 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY - SINCE GROUND/SNOW
COVER IS JUST AS COLD AS THE CLOUDS.
7 PM UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM TEMPS/WINDS. WIND CHILLS ARE CLOSE TO
WARNING FOR THE NC MTS. TEMPS AT THE CLOSEST NY SITES AND BFD ARE
ALL ALREADY 0F. MAY END UP PUTTING WARNING UP FOR A FEW COS
THERE...BUT MESO MDLS STILL TRY TO SLACKEN THE WINDS ENOUGH TO
KEEP THEM JUST ABOVE -25.
PREV...
MOST INTENSE/ORGANIZED SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY HAS RAPIDLY LIFTED
INTO THE POCONO PLATEAU AND TOWARD THE CATSKILLS REGION NY BY MID
AFTERNOON...BUT NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SNOW BURSTS
CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL PA THANKS TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND SFC BASED CAPES UP TO 200 J/KG. RUC13 AND NAM12 DIAGNOSTICS
INDICATE RAPID DISSIPATION OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 21/22Z FOLLOWED
BY CLEARING FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LAKE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST.
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS...AS STRONG
WINDS COMBINE WITH FALLING TEMPS DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GOING WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 40KTS.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO UP NORTH...WITH -10F
TO -15F EXPECTED. SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WILL AFFECT THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ENDLESS MOUNTAINS AND LYCOMING
VALLEY...ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND LOWER SUSQ. EXTREMELY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT NO
RECORD LOWS EXPECTED DUE TO A FRIGID MORNING BACK IN 1934.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN PLAYER FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PA...WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING WELL OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY MORNING INTRODUCING A BRIEF MODERATING SPELL FOR SATURDAY.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...
WHICH WILL BE MUCH MORE TOLERABLE TO FRIDAY CONDITIONS.
ENSEMBLE MEAN 925TEMPS OF ARND -15C WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NO
BETTER THAN THE TEENS TO NR 20F...ARND 25F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
FEBRUARY.
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS LATE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH. RESULTING MIN TEMPS WILL BE SOME 15 TO AS MUCH AS 20F WARMER
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON SAT...STORM OF INTEREST FOR LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY FROM THE CALIF COAST EASTWARD. OVER PA...
FAST AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS SPOKES OF COLDER AIR ROTATING
AROUND A LOW ANCHORED NEAR HUDSON BAY GET SHUNTED TO OUR NORTH.
ONE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS S CANADA WILL DRAG
A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH PA SAT NIGHT. AHEAD OF THAT...SOME
MILDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE STATE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS.
A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ALSO POSS...EMPHASIS ON LIGHT AS QPF AT BEST
IS JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS...AND CONFINED TO THE NW MTNS AS SW FLOW
OVERRUNS RETREATING ARCTIC AIR MASS.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING N OF THE GRT LKS WILL PUSH A
DYING COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA SAT NIGHT. SCT LIGHT SNOW MAY
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT MAINLY OVR THE N MTNS...WHILE AIR
MASS ACTUALLY BECOMES MILD ENOUGH FOR EITHER -SHRA OR -SHSN OVER
SOUTH. QPF AGAIN REMAINS LIGHT...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AT
BEST ALONG NY BORDER. ERODING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE
SOUTH OF IT ACROSS PORTIONS OF S PA...WITH READINGS ONLY FALLING
TO ARND 32F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
REMNANTS OF THIS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MID RANGE. MODEL GUIDANCE
IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE LIFTING
TOWARD PA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
A SIGNIFICANT BOUT OF WINTRY PRECIP FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS PLUME OF GULF OF MEX MOISTURE OVERRUNS A
QUASI-STATIONARY BNDRY JUST S OF THE MASON DIXON. BOTH GEFS AND
OPER EC/CMC CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A NARROW SWATH OF
GREATER THAN AN INCH PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PA...MAYBE
SLIDING JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREV RUNS. BEST CHC FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL/PARTS OF NORTHERN
PA...WITH A GREATER CHC OF A WINTRY MIX OR EVEN A PERIOD OF RAIN
IN THE SOUTH /AND MUCH LOWER SNOW ACCUMS/...BEFORE COLDER AIR
AT LOWER LEVELS BEGINS TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE EVENT BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO END AS A PERIOD
OF SNOW ON MONDAY.
MIDWEEK WILL BRING FAIR AND COLD WX /AROUND 15F BELOW NORMAL ALONG
WITH MORNING LOWS BACK INTO SINGLE DIGITS/ AS LARGE SFC HIGH PRES
SYSTEM BUILDS SE TOWARDS PA FROM CENTRAL CANADA. LATE WEEK LOOKS
TO BRING A BIT OF RELIEF FROM THE VERY CHILLY WEATHER AS COLDER
AIR RETREATS BACK TO THE NORTH AS WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPS TO
NUDGE TEMPS BACK TOWARD...YET STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW...NORMAL.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTING ANOTHER SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE PROGGED TO IMPACT MAINLY SOUTHEAST STATES BEFORE
SLIDING OFF CAROLINA COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
28/06Z...VFR/CLR SKIES UNDER SFC HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU MOST
OF THE PERIOD...WITH JUST A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HIGH CLOUDS STARTING
TO INVADE FM THE WEST BY 06Z SAT. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
BCMG LGT/VRB IN MOST PLACES BY 12Z...THEN VEERING TO THE EAST BUT
REMAINING AOB 5KTS.
HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT NEWD ON SAT...AS UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY PIVOTING
AROUND POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY SENDS A WEAK SFC LOW EWD ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER..FROM THE UPPER GRT LKS INTO NRN NEW ENG
THIS WKEND. THE TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT SINKING SWD FROM THE MIDWEST
AND SETTLING W-E ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATL STATES WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR WINTRY PCPN ESP LATER SUN INTO MON..AS WAVES OF LOW
PRES EJECT NEWD FROM THE ARKLATEX THRU THE TN VLY AND EXIT THE
EAST COAST OVER VA AND THE CAROLINAS. THE N-S PLACEMENT OF THE
ARCTIC BNDRY WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN DETERMINING PTYPES WITH
WITH A MESSY/ICY TRANSITION ZONE EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT. HIGH
PRES MIGRATING EWD FM THE GRT LKS SHOULD BRING IMPROVG CONDS INTO
TUES.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR TRENDING LOWER INTO SAT NGT WITH -SN DVLPG NW.
SUN-MON...MVFR/IFR VIS AND CIGS LKLY IN SN AND/OR MIXED PCPN.
TUE...VFR NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/RXR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1140 PM EST THU FEB 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD OVER PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT WITH BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS IN STORE. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. A WIDE-REACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE IN QUICKLY FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE
STORM WILL SLIDE ALONG THE OLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE LAID OUT TO OUR
SOUTH. IT WILL MAKE AN IMPACT ON ALL OF PA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH ALL
OF MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FAIR AND CONTINUED COLD WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
WINDS ARE SLACKENING AND TEMPS COOLING AS ANTICIPATED. WIND CHILL
ADVY LOOKING ON TRACK. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN TIER WHICH AREA TOUGH TO PICK UP ON IR
CHANNELS - EVEN THE 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY - SINCE GROUND/SNOW
COVER IS JUST AS COLD AS THE CLOUDS.
7 PM UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM TEMPS/WINDS. WIND CHILLS ARE CLOSE TO
WARNING FOR THE NC MTS. TEMPS AT THE CLOSEST NY SITES AND BFD ARE
ALL ALREADY 0F. MAY END UP PUTTING WARNING UP FOR A FEW COS
THERE...BUT MESO MDLS STILL TRY TO SLACKEN THE WINDS ENOUGH TO
KEEP THEM JUST ABOVE -25.
PREV...
MOST INTENSE/ORGANIZED SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY HAS RAPIDLY LIFTED
INTO THE POCONO PLATEAU AND TOWARD THE CATSKILLS REGION NY BY MID
AFTERNOON...BUT NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SNOW BURSTS
CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL PA THANKS TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND SFC BASED CAPES UP TO 200 J/KG. RUC13 AND NAM12 DIAGNOSTICS
INDICATE RAPID DISSIPATION OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 21/22Z FOLLOWED
BY CLEARING FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LAKE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST.
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS...AS STRONG
WINDS COMBINE WITH FALLING TEMPS DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GOING WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 40KTS.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO UP NORTH...WITH -10F
TO -15F EXPECTED. SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WILL AFFECT THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ENDLESS MOUNTAINS AND LYCOMING
VALLEY...ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND LOWER SUSQ. EXTREMELY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT NO
RECORD LOWS EXPECTED DUE TO A FRIGID MORNING BACK IN 1934.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN PLAYER FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PA...WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING WELL OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY MORNING INTRODUCING A BRIEF MODERATING SPELL FOR SATURDAY.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...
WHICH WILL BE MUCH MORE TOLERABLE TO FRIDAY CONDITIONS.
ENSEMBLE MEAN 925TEMPS OF ARND -15C WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NO
BETTER THAN THE TEENS TO NR 20F...ARND 25F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
FEBRUARY.
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS LATE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH. RESULTING MIN TEMPS WILL BE SOME 15 TO AS MUCH AS 20F WARMER
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON SAT...STORM OF INTEREST FOR LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY FROM THE CALIF COAST EASTWARD. OVER PA...
FAST AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS SPOKES OF COLDER AIR ROTATING
AROUND A LOW ANCHORED NEAR HUDSON BAY GET SHUNTED TO OUR NORTH.
ONE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS S CANADA WILL DRAG
A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH PA SAT NIGHT. AHEAD OF THAT...SOME
MILDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE STATE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS.
A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ALSO POSS...EMPHASIS ON LIGHT AS QPF AT BEST
IS JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS...AND CONFINED TO THE NW MTNS AS SW FLOW
OVERRUNS RETREATING ARCTIC AIR MASS.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING N OF THE GRT LKS WILL PUSH A
DYING COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA SAT NIGHT. SCT LIGHT SNOW MAY
ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT MAINLY OVR THE N MTNS...WHILE AIR
MASS ACTUALLY BECOMES MILD ENOUGH FOR EITHER -SHRA OR -SHSN OVER
SOUTH. QPF AGAIN REMAINS LIGHT...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AT
BEST ALONG NY BORDER. ERODING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE
SOUTH OF IT ACROSS PORTIONS OF S PA...WITH READINGS ONLY FALLING
TO ARND 32F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
REMNANTS OF THIS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MID RANGE. MODEL GUIDANCE
IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE LIFTING
TOWARD PA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
A SIGNIFICANT BOUT OF WINTRY PRECIP FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS PLUME OF GULF OF MEX MOISTURE OVERRUNS A
QUASI-STATIONARY BNDRY JUST S OF THE MASON DIXON. BOTH GEFS AND
OPER EC/CMC CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A NARROW SWATH OF
GREATER THAN AN INCH PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PA...MAYBE
SLIDING JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREV RUNS. BEST CHC FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL/PARTS OF NORTHERN
PA...WITH A GREATER CHC OF A WINTRY MIX OR EVEN A PERIOD OF RAIN
IN THE SOUTH /AND MUCH LOWER SNOW ACCUMS/...BEFORE COLDER AIR
AT LOWER LEVELS BEGINS TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE EVENT BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO END AS A PERIOD
OF SNOW ON MONDAY.
MIDWEEK WILL BRING FAIR AND COLD WX /AROUND 15F BELOW NORMAL ALONG
WITH MORNING LOWS BACK INTO SINGLE DIGITS/ AS LARGE SFC HIGH PRES
SYSTEM BUILDS SE TOWARDS PA FROM CENTRAL CANADA. LATE WEEK LOOKS
TO BRING A BIT OF RELIEF FROM THE VERY CHILLY WEATHER AS COLDER
AIR RETREATS BACK TO THE NORTH AS WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPS TO
NUDGE TEMPS BACK TOWARD...YET STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW...NORMAL.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTING ANOTHER SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE PROGGED TO IMPACT MAINLY SOUTHEAST STATES BEFORE
SLIDING OFF CAROLINA COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS ON THE DECREASE NOW...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.
03Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
AS EXPECTED...RATHER ACTIVE SNOW SHOWERS MADE IT INTO THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFT...JUST TOOK A LITTLE LONGER TO GET
THERE.
MOST OF THE SNOW IS OVER NOW...BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
AT BFD AND JST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS VERY GUSTY STILL...WILL LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
EXPECT A DECENT DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH LOTS OF SUN...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. THE
BIG ISSUE WILL BE VERY LOW TEMPS FOR LATE FEB.
FRONT STALLS NEARBY LATER THIS WEEKEND. MIXED PRECIPITATION
LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...AS AT LEAST ONE
WEAK LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR TRENDING LOWER INTO SAT NGT IN -SN.
SUN-MON...MVFR/IFR LKLY IN SN AND/OR MIXED PCPN.
TUE...MVFR POSS NW...VFR ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/RXR
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1046 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A MOIST COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
WITH A SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1040 PM...0Z NAM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED THE FIELD OF LOW
SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE MODELS AGREES WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST HOURLY TEMP...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS.
AS OF 7 PM...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE TONIGHT...EXPANDING NW ACROSS
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WAS EXTREMELY DRY AND THE UPPER LAYER OF SOIL IS DRY. AT
6PM...THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OBS HAD DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AROUND 20 DEGREES.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...AS MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE. I DO EXPECT SOME FOG...I WILL INDICATE 6-5SM FOG
WITH SCT010 BETWEEN 10-13Z. FOR THE UPDATE...I WILL ADJUST FOG
PLACEMENT AND TIMING AND WILL ADJUST HOURLY TEMP/DWPT.
AS OF 230 PM...THERE WILL BE A FLAT UPR RIDGE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THRU THE NEAR TERM...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF BEGINS TO
ENTER THE SRN PLAINS. SFC HIGH PRES WILL LINGER JUST OFF THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SWLY LLVL RETURN FLOW ATOP
THE CWFA TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY. FCST SNDGS INDICATE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH INCREASING BL MOISTURE WITHIN THE SW FLOW. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HINTS AT SOME FOG OR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY ACRS THE PIEDMONT. MOST OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE RAP HINTING AS
WELL. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...HIGHLIGHTING THE
AREA WHERE THE NAM AS NEAR ZERO SFC CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON DENSE FOG IS STILL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE KEPT
ABOVE NORMAL WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT SAGGING SEWD
ACRS THE OH VLY...BUT PRECIP HOLDING OFF TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE SFC
BNDRY. SO WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTN...BUT OTHERWISE IT SHUD BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH
HIGHS ABOUT 8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SAT...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES SWIFTLY EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. THE WAVE WILL INTERACT
WITH A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE OH AND MID MS RIVER
VALLEYS AND GENERATE SFC WAVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL
ZONE AND THE COLD SIDE...KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY SLOWLY BUILDING POPS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
GET SHUTTLED EWD. FORCING FEATURES COME TOGETHER BEST ACROSS THE
AREA MON MORNING IN THE FORM OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
DIVERGENCE...PASSING DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS THE SFC WAVE SWEEPS IN ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND POSSIBLY WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING
THROUGH LATE DAY NW OF THE SFC WAVE AFTER THE BOUNDARY SLIPS THROUGH
THE AREA. THIS WILL WARRANT LIKELY TO CAT POPS THROUGHOUT MON
MORNING.
EVEN WITH THE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT...MUCAPES WILL BE LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO 100 J/KG OR LESS...WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES 5.5 TO
6 DEG C/KM...AND WITH WESTERLY SHEAR PROFILES. THIS WILL GREATLY
LIMIT THE TSTM POTENTIAL AND ONLY SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE
WARM SECTOR. COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY SURGE INTO THE NRN TIER MON
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE W AND A BACKDOOR
FRONT WRAPS DOWN FROM THE N. THE RACE WILL THEN BE ON BETWEEN THE
MOISTURE EXITING SE AND COLDER PROFILES ARRIVING FROM THE N TO
SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX. STILL FEEL THAT ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP
WOULD BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORED IN THIS SETUP. IN ADDITION...
PROFILES APPEAR TO DRY OUT FROM THE TOP DOWN IN THE COLDER NRN
TIER...LIKELY ENDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE NUCLEATION AND ANY
ACCUMULATING FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION. BRIEF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD STILL OCCUR OVER THE NW NC
PIEDMONT LATE MON...WITH BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MTNS NEAR THE NC BORDER INTO EARLY EVENING.
NO HAZARD HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
H5 FLOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME ZONAL THROUGH TUE...WITH 1032 MB HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER TO THE N FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS...MAY CAP TUE MAX
TEMPS AT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...TRICKY MEDIUM RANGE FCST CONTINUES AS
GENERAL OVERALL AGREEMENT EXISTS...BUT SIGNIFICANT DETAIL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN AS WELL. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT SHOWING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING TO THE WRN GULF COAST BY WED NITE THEN
CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW ON THU. THIS LOW THEN MOVES EAST ALONG THE
GULF COAST THU NITE AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRI AND SAT. THE
CANADIAN MODEL IS COMING AROUND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH SOME MINOR
PLACEMENT AND TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH A
MUCH FASTER AND OPEN WAVE. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN AS CONSISTENT WITH
THE STRENGTH...POSITION OR TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN IS DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NOT AS DEEP OR SLOW
AS THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN. WPC IS TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEPER AND
SLOWER SCENARIO...SO HAVE GONE THIS DIRECTION AS WELL.
WED WILL BE A COOL DRY DAY WITH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN A CLASSICAL
CAD PATTERN. THE GULF LOW SPINS UP ON THU AND MOVES EAST SPREADING
MOISTURE AND PRECIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE DEVELOPING CAD. THE GFS
WITH ITS WEAKER AND FASTER LOW...KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-85. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
WETTER. THEREFORE...SPREAD CHC POP IN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA WED NITE
AND THE ENTIRE CWFA THU. PARTIAL THICKNESSES...H85 TEMPS...AND SFC
TEMPS SUGGEST SNOW AND SLEET WOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85
AS THE PRECIP MOVES IN WED NITE...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN SOUTH. AS
TEMPS WARM THRU THE DAY THU...PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN IN ALL BUT THE
DEEPEST PART OF THE CAD DOME...NEAR AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE
LOW MOVES UP THE SERN COAST THU NITE AND FRI...PRECIP REMAINS ACROSS
THE CWFA. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS REMAIN COOL OVER THE MTNS
WITH SFC TEMPS FALLING ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR TOWARD DAYBREAK. A
STRONG WARM NOSE DEVELOPS WITH CONTINUING WWA. THIS CHANGES ANY
WINTRY PRECIP IN THOSE COLDER AREAS TO FREEZING RAIN. PRECIP TAPERS
OFF ACROSS THE WRN CWFA FRI AFTERNOON AND ALL AREAS FRI EVENING AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TAKING MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH
IT. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FRI AS THE WWA CONTINUES AND
REMAINS RAIN UNTIL ENDING. RIGHT NOW...THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE THICKNESS AND TEMP PATTERN...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A
LITTLE BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT A PRECIP EVENT WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW
AND SFC GULF LOW WILL DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE FOR SNOW/SLEET
LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OVER
THE NRN MTNS. ALSO HAVE TRACE ICE ACCRETION NORTH OF I-85 AND LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER THE MTNS...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
NRN MTNS. AGAIN...THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN...SO STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE TONIGHT...EXPANDING NW ACROSS THE
TERMINAL DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WAS EXTREMELY DRY AND THE UPPER LAYER OF SOIL IS DRY. AT 6PM...THE
OBS DEWPOINT DEPRESSION WAS 20 DEGREES. CONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...AS MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE. I DO EXPECT
SOME FOG...I WILL INDICATE MVFR FOG WITH SCT010 BETWEEN 10-13Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KAVL
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY GUSTY DURING
SUN AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z 21-03Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
704 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A MOIST COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
WITH A SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE TONIGHT...EXPANDING NW ACROSS
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WAS EXTREMELY DRY AND THE UPPER LAYER OF SOIL IS DRY. AT
6PM...THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OBS HAD DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AROUND 20 DEGREES.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...AS MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE. I DO EXPECT SOME FOG...I WILL INDICATE 6-5SM FOG
WITH SCT010 BETWEEN 10-13Z. FOR THE UPDATE...I WILL ADJUST FOG
PLACEMENT AND TIMING AND WILL ADJUST HOURLY TEMP/DWPT.
AS OF 230 PM...THERE WILL BE A FLAT UPR RIDGE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THRU THE NEAR TERM...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF BEGINS TO
ENTER THE SRN PLAINS. SFC HIGH PRES WILL LINGER JUST OFF THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SWLY LLVL RETURN FLOW ATOP
THE CWFA TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY. FCST SNDGS INDICATE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH INCREASING BL MOISTURE WITHIN THE SW FLOW. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HINTS AT SOME FOG OR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY ACRS THE PIEDMONT. MOST OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE RAP HINTING AS
WELL. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...HIGHLIGHTING THE
AREA WHERE THE NAM AS NEAR ZERO SFC CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON DENSE FOG IS STILL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE KEPT
ABOVE NORMAL WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT SAGGING SEWD
ACRS THE OH VLY...BUT PRECIP HOLDING OFF TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE SFC
BNDRY. SO WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTN...BUT OTHERWISE IT SHUD BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH
HIGHS ABOUT 8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SAT...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES SWIFTLY EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. THE WAVE WILL INTERACT
WITH A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE OH AND MID MS RIVER
VALLEYS AND GENERATE SFC WAVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL
ZONE AND THE COLD SIDE...KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY SLOWLY BUILDING POPS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
GET SHUTTLED EWD. FORCING FEATURES COME TOGETHER BEST ACROSS THE
AREA MON MORNING IN THE FORM OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
DIVERGENCE...PASSING DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS THE SFC WAVE SWEEPS IN ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND POSSIBLY WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING
THROUGH LATE DAY NW OF THE SFC WAVE AFTER THE BOUNDARY SLIPS THROUGH
THE AREA. THIS WILL WARRANT LIKELY TO CAT POPS THROUGHOUT MON
MORNING.
EVEN WITH THE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT...MUCAPES WILL BE LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO 100 J/KG OR LESS...WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES 5.5 TO
6 DEG C/KM...AND WITH WESTERLY SHEAR PROFILES. THIS WILL GREATLY
LIMIT THE TSTM POTENTIAL AND ONLY SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE
WARM SECTOR. COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY SURGE INTO THE NRN TIER MON
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE W AND A BACKDOOR
FRONT WRAPS DOWN FROM THE N. THE RACE WILL THEN BE ON BETWEEN THE
MOISTURE EXITING SE AND COLDER PROFILES ARRIVING FROM THE N TO
SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX. STILL FEEL THAT ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP
WOULD BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORED IN THIS SETUP. IN ADDITION...
PROFILES APPEAR TO DRY OUT FROM THE TOP DOWN IN THE COLDER NRN
TIER...LIKELY ENDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE NUCLEATION AND ANY
ACCUMULATING FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION. BRIEF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD STILL OCCUR OVER THE NW NC
PIEDMONT LATE MON...WITH BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MTNS NEAR THE NC BORDER INTO EARLY EVENING.
NO HAZARD HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
H5 FLOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME ZONAL THROUGH TUE...WITH 1032 MB HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER TO THE N FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS...MAY CAP TUE MAX
TEMPS AT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...TRICKY MEDIUM RANGE FCST CONTINUES AS
GENERAL OVERALL AGREEMENT EXISTS...BUT SIGNIFICANT DETAIL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN AS WELL. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT SHOWING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING TO THE WRN GULF COAST BY WED NITE THEN
CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW ON THU. THIS LOW THEN MOVES EAST ALONG THE
GULF COAST THU NITE AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRI AND SAT. THE
CANADIAN MODEL IS COMING AROUND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH SOME MINOR
PLACEMENT AND TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH A
MUCH FASTER AND OPEN WAVE. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN AS CONSISTENT WITH
THE STRENGTH...POSITION OR TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN IS DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NOT AS DEEP OR SLOW
AS THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN. WPC IS TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEPER AND
SLOWER SCENARIO...SO HAVE GONE THIS DIRECTION AS WELL.
WED WILL BE A COOL DRY DAY WITH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN A CLASSICAL
CAD PATTERN. THE GULF LOW SPINS UP ON THU AND MOVES EAST SPREADING
MOISTURE AND PRECIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE DEVELOPING CAD. THE GFS
WITH ITS WEAKER AND FASTER LOW...KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-85. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
WETTER. THEREFORE...SPREAD CHC POP IN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA WED NITE
AND THE ENTIRE CWFA THU. PARTIAL THICKNESSES...H85 TEMPS...AND SFC
TEMPS SUGGEST SNOW AND SLEET WOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85
AS THE PRECIP MOVES IN WED NITE...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN SOUTH. AS
TEMPS WARM THRU THE DAY THU...PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN IN ALL BUT THE
DEEPEST PART OF THE CAD DOME...NEAR AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE
LOW MOVES UP THE SERN COAST THU NITE AND FRI...PRECIP REMAINS ACROSS
THE CWFA. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS REMAIN COOL OVER THE MTNS
WITH SFC TEMPS FALLING ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR TOWARD DAYBREAK. A
STRONG WARM NOSE DEVELOPS WITH CONTINUING WWA. THIS CHANGES ANY
WINTRY PRECIP IN THOSE COLDER AREAS TO FREEZING RAIN. PRECIP TAPERS
OFF ACROSS THE WRN CWFA FRI AFTERNOON AND ALL AREAS FRI EVENING AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TAKING MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH
IT. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FRI AS THE WWA CONTINUES AND
REMAINS RAIN UNTIL ENDING. RIGHT NOW...THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE THICKNESS AND TEMP PATTERN...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A
LITTLE BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT A PRECIP EVENT WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW
AND SFC GULF LOW WILL DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE FOR SNOW/SLEET
LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OVER
THE NRN MTNS. ALSO HAVE TRACE ICE ACCRETION NORTH OF I-85 AND LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER THE MTNS...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
NRN MTNS. AGAIN...THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN...SO STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE TONIGHT...EXPANDING NW ACROSS THE
TERMINAL DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WAS EXTREMELY DRY AND THE UPPER LAYER OF SOIL IS DRY. AT 6PM...THE
OBS DEWPOINT DEPRESSION WAS 20 DEGREES. CONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...AS MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE. I DO EXPECT
SOME FOG...I WILL INDICATE MVFR FOG WITH SCT010 BETWEEN 10-13Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KAVL
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY GUSTY DURING
SUN AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
944 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST IS STILL BEING UPDATED BUT HERE IS A QUICK DISCUSSION
REGARDING THE CHANGES THAT ARE BEING MADE TONIGHT...
AS ANTICIPATED...THE ARCTIC FRONT IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND HAS
ALREADY ENTERED OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
DRASTICALLY DROPPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WITH THE
TRUE ARCTIC AIR LAGGING A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE. AT 9
PM...THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM CLAYTON OKLAHOMA TO
SHERMAN TO BRECKENRIDGE TO SOUTH OF LUBBOCK. TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ARE NOW IN THE 50S BUT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ARE ALREADY IN THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE IN THE
UPPER 20S.
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT. BY 1 AM...THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR A CISCO TO DFW TO PARIS
LINE...REACHING KILLEEN...WACO AND CANTON AROUND 5 AM AND FINALLY
THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK DEPENDING ON
THE FRONTS LOCATION.
WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPES OR
CHANCES...BUT WITH THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...WILL ADD A
MENTION OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS....INCLUDING TEMPLE/KILLEEN. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
IMPACT BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THE NAM...TX TECH WRF...RAP...AND OUR LOCAL WRF ALL HAVE
REASONABLE PRECIPITATION TRENDS TOMORROW AND AM LEANING TOWARDS
THEIR SOLUTIONS. THEY HAVE PRECIP OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A LITTLE LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND AROUND MIDDAY. THEN THE
PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION...OCCURS
OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS IS WHEN WE
EXPECT THE HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
OCCUR AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THUNDERSLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN AS IS BUT HAVE UPGRADED
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...ALONG AND
EAST OF A BONHAM TO GREENVILLE LINE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE
COUNTIES COULD REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WARNING
WILL BE FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WARNING MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED WEST...POSSIBLY INTO THE DFW METROPLEX
AREA...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO EXPANDED
SOUTH ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE
NEW MODEL DATA TONIGHT BEFORE MAKING ANY MORE CHANGES TO THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING LOCATIONS/PRODUCTS.
82/JLD
&&
.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE SOUTH THAN WE HAD
ORIGINALLY PLANNED. THE 03Z TAF UPDATES WILL SHOW THE WIND SHIFT AT
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR 06Z AND WACO FOR 12Z. THIS WILL RESULT
IN US NEEDING TO INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER.
.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
CONCERNS...TIMING OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND AND SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE
FRONT. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET POSSIBLE LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING IN THE METROPLEX.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS TREKKING SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
AROUND 09Z. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO FREEZING 16-17Z SUNDAY /10-11 AM CST/ IN THE
METROPLEX. AT THAT TIME...THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN...AND THE FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND IF THIS
HAPPENS...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL END UP BEING HEAVIER THAN
THE CURRENT FORECAST. ALSO NOTE THAT THE FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FOR THE GROUND...AND ICING ON ELEVATED SURFACES WILL START AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY EVENING...SHUTTING OFF AROUND 02Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS LIKELY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO IFR OVERNIGHT
/AROUND 08Z/. CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO LOWER END MVFR AROUND
MIDDAY AND THESE CEILINGS WILL HOLD IN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
AT WACO...A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE
BACK IN THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO IFR BY 06Z. THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH 13-15Z...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN WACO. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO FREEZING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
/21-22Z/...THE RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
58
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014/
REGARDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS...WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE ADVISORY SOUTH TO A CISCO TO
CLIFTON TO ATHENS LINE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO
PLANO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS. POINTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO SEE IMPACTS FROM LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THESE IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ON ELEVATED SURFACES...IN PART DUE TO
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DETAILS
REGARDING THE FORECAST CONTINUE BELOW:
A 21Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BOUNDARY LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER WHERE MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES
IT WILL STALL OUT BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A
NOTABLE EXCEPTION SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SPIKED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG AN 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE.
WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO 80S ON CONSECUTIVE
DAYS FOR MOST POINTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...SOIL
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM...AND THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
OUR FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TO OUR NORTH...21Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA RANGED FROM THE LOWER TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 20S.
COMPARING THESE TEMPERATURES TO THE MORNING NAM 21Z FORECAST FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATED THAT THE NAM WAS RUNNING 8 TO 10
DEGREES TOO WARM WITH AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT.
UNFORTUNATELY THE NAM IS THE COLDEST OF THE POPULAR OPERATIONAL
FORECAST MODELS...SO THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT SHORT TERM SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH IN THE FORECAST MODELS MOVING
FORWARD. THE RAP IS DOING THE BEST JOB RESOLVING 21Z
TEMPERATURES...BUT THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE RAP
INGESTS NEW DATA EACH HOUR. AT ANY RATE...CONTINUED TO RELY UPON
THE NAM HEAVILY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...JUST LIKE THE
MIDNIGHT CREW...BECAUSE THE NAM IS THE COLDEST AND FASTEST WITH
THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TWO BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA (THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER...THEN THE ARCTIC FRONT TO THE
NORTH) IT WAS DIFFICULT TO TRACK THE SOUTHERN PROGRESS OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF THE RED RIVER FRONT...AND PARTIALLY DUE TO
NORTHERLY WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER NORTH THROUGH KANSAS
MASKING THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRULY ARCTIC AIRMASS.
BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AT 21Z THE FRONT APPEARED TO
BE NEAR A LINE FROM CANADIAN TX TO WATONGA OK TO PONCA CITY OK.
TRACKING THIS FRONT WILL ALSO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A FASTER
OR SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD HAVE DRASTIC IMPACTS ON OUR
FORECAST AND IMPACTS.
TO THE FORECAST...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE RED
RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE DFW AREA
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 AM CST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS WACO
AROUND 7 AM...AND THEN ACROSS PALESTINE AND TEMPLE/KILLEEN AN HOUR
LATER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORT WORTH
CWA BEFORE NOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES. PARAMETERS ARE THERE INDICATIVE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN PLACE CURRENTLY
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR STORMS AND KEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OF
AROUND 50 KTS. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE THE INTERSECTION OF THIS
PARAMETER SPACE IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...PROBABLY
SUPERCELLS OR POSSIBLY MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS ASSUMING STRONG FORCING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR RELEASING THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENERGY INTO STORMS.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE
CAPPING INVERSION IN THE 850 TO 800 MB LAYER...WHICH IS QUITE
STOUT AT 300 TO 400 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR SURFACE
BASED AIR PARCELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE THAT STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
LIFT AND COOL A LARGE CHUNK OF THIS CAPPING INVERSION...HOWEVER
THE CAP APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENTLY IN PLACE UNTIL 2-3 HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THIS BEING THE CASE...THERE WOULD BE NEARLY A ZERO
CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED STORMS AND TORNADOES ACROSS THE CWA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING. DAMAGING WIND MAY BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE ELEVATED
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ANY VERTICAL MOTIONS WITHIN THE FRONTAL
INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMPENED BY HIGH STABILITY. THAT
LEAVES A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL...WHICH CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. LEFT A MENTION OF
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
FOR TOMORROW MORNING AS A RESULT IN OUR GRAPHICAL HAZARD IMAGES.
BEHIND THE FRONT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO 80 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS CHANCES FOR ALL LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE
AT LEAST ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY HIGH
AT THIS TIME. MOST PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS AIR
PARCELS LIFTED FROM THE 900 TO 850 MB LAYER ARE CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST TO HAVE 3-500 J/KG OF POSITIVE CAPE. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNFORTUNATELY
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SPREADS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE CWA. THIS IS
UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THIS TIME WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES BUILDING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE DAY.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT...WE
SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO FREEZING RAIN...TO
FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET TO ALL SLEET THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING ICE
AND SLEET FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO
PLANO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AS THESE LOCATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SPEND MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING. FROM THIS LINE
SOUTH TO A LINE FROM CISCO TO CLIFTON TO ATHENS (THIS INCLUDES THE
DFW METROPLEX)...EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS OF ICE AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION SIMPLY BECAUSE THE SUB-FREEZING AIR IS SLOWER TO
BUILD IN...AND THESE AREAS SAW TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOUT 10 DEGREES
HIGHER TODAY THAN LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN
SO WARM OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. JUST LOOKING AT MODEL OUTPUT AND
FORECAST WATER EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AND CONVERTING THAT
DIRECTLY INTO ICE IS A VERY POOR ESTIMATE OF ICE ACCUMULATION FOR
THIS EVENT BECAUSE SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE CWA. IT WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT OF TIME FOR SOIL
TEMPERATURES TO FALL...MEANING THAT A LARGE PORTION OF ANY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS...EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING...WILL NOT STICK TO THE GROUND. ESTIMATING HOW MUCH
RAINFALL WILL RUN OFF VERSUS HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE AS ICE IS
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. AT THIS TIME FORECAST ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS
ARE APPROXIMATELY 25 PERCENT OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO FALL AS WATER
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.
WHETHER THIS IS AGGRESSIVE OR CONSERVATIVE WILL DEPEND AT LEAST
PARTIALLY ON HOW FAST WE FALL BELOW FREEZING BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. FALLING BELOW FREEZING FASTER THAN EXPECTED WILL RESULT IN
GREATER IMPACTS ON AVERAGE. WE WILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND IF IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
GET COLDER SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER...WE MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE SOME
PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY INTO A WINTER STORM WARNING BEFORE SUNDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS ICE ACCUMULATION
AND IMPACTS MAINLY RELEGATED TO ELEVATED SURFACES...WHICH IS WHY A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AND NOT A WINTER STORM
WARNING AT THIS TIME. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONE TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH...MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
WITH MOST ATTENTION FOCUSED ON SUNDAYS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINTER
WEATHER...HERE IS A QUICK SUMMARY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST:
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL
NIGHT...MEANING ANY RESIDUAL WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE UP
CAUSING ADDITIONAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
MONDAY MORNING WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE ZERO TO MINUS 5 DEGREES
FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...ASSUMING THIS DOES NOT CHANGE IN FUTURE
FORECASTS...WE WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE VERY COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES.
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS OF THE DAY. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CLOSELY IN CASE IMPACTS ARE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. CURRENTLY...ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.
WE WILL WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT HAVE LOW RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH YET ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE REGION. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AT
THIS TIME.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 36 39 16 36 24 / 60 80 10 0 10
WACO, TX 59 63 20 41 29 / 20 80 10 0 10
PARIS, TX 35 38 11 34 22 / 60 90 30 0 10
DENTON, TX 32 33 14 34 21 / 60 80 10 0 10
MCKINNEY, TX 33 35 13 34 19 / 60 80 20 0 10
DALLAS, TX 38 41 16 37 25 / 50 80 10 0 10
TERRELL, TX 44 52 15 36 23 / 50 80 20 0 10
CORSICANA, TX 59 62 18 38 26 / 30 80 20 0 10
TEMPLE, TX 66 67 21 42 30 / 10 80 10 0 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 32 33 14 36 23 / 50 80 10 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
TXZ115>123-129>135-144>146.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ094-
095-105>107.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ094-095-
105>107.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
TXZ091>093-100>104.
&&
$$
58/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
903 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE SOUTH THAN WE HAD
ORIGINALLY PLANNED. THE 03Z TAF UPDATES WILL SHOW THE WIND SHIFT AT
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR 06Z AND WACO FOR 12Z. THIS WILL RESULT
IN US NEEDING TO INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER.
.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
CONCERNS...TIMING OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND AND SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE
FRONT. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET POSSIBLE LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING IN THE METROPLEX.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS TREKKING SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
AROUND 09Z. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO FREEZING 16-17Z SUNDAY /10-11 AM CST/ IN THE
METROPLEX. AT THAT TIME...THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN...AND THE FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND IF THIS
HAPPENS...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL END UP BEING HEAVIER THAN
THE CURRENT FORECAST. ALSO NOTE THAT THE FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FOR THE GROUND...AND ICING ON ELEVATED SURFACES WILL START AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY EVENING...SHUTTING OFF AROUND 02Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS LIKELY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO IFR OVERNIGHT
/AROUND 08Z/. CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO LOWER END MVFR AROUND
MIDDAY AND THESE CEILINGS WILL HOLD IN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
AT WACO...A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE
BACK IN THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO IFR BY 06Z. THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH 13-15Z...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN WACO. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO FREEZING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
/21-22Z/...THE RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
58
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014/
REGARDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS...WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE ADVISORY SOUTH TO A CISCO TO
CLIFTON TO ATHENS LINE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO
PLANO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS. POINTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO SEE IMPACTS FROM LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THESE IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ON ELEVATED SURFACES...IN PART DUE TO
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DETAILS
REGARDING THE FORECAST CONTINUE BELOW:
A 21Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BOUNDARY LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER WHERE MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES
IT WILL STALL OUT BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A
NOTABLE EXCEPTION SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SPIKED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG AN 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE.
WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO 80S ON CONSECUTIVE
DAYS FOR MOST POINTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...SOIL
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM...AND THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
OUR FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TO OUR NORTH...21Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA RANGED FROM THE LOWER TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 20S.
COMPARING THESE TEMPERATURES TO THE MORNING NAM 21Z FORECAST FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATED THAT THE NAM WAS RUNNING 8 TO 10
DEGREES TOO WARM WITH AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT.
UNFORTUNATELY THE NAM IS THE COLDEST OF THE POPULAR OPERATIONAL
FORECAST MODELS...SO THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT SHORT TERM SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH IN THE FORECAST MODELS MOVING
FORWARD. THE RAP IS DOING THE BEST JOB RESOLVING 21Z
TEMPERATURES...BUT THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE RAP
INGESTS NEW DATA EACH HOUR. AT ANY RATE...CONTINUED TO RELY UPON
THE NAM HEAVILY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...JUST LIKE THE
MIDNIGHT CREW...BECAUSE THE NAM IS THE COLDEST AND FASTEST WITH
THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TWO BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA (THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER...THEN THE ARCTIC FRONT TO THE
NORTH) IT WAS DIFFICULT TO TRACK THE SOUTHERN PROGRESS OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF THE RED RIVER FRONT...AND PARTIALLY DUE TO
NORTHERLY WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER NORTH THROUGH KANSAS
MASKING THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRULY ARCTIC AIRMASS.
BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AT 21Z THE FRONT APPEARED TO
BE NEAR A LINE FROM CANADIAN TX TO WATONGA OK TO PONCA CITY OK.
TRACKING THIS FRONT WILL ALSO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A FASTER
OR SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD HAVE DRASTIC IMPACTS ON OUR
FORECAST AND IMPACTS.
TO THE FORECAST...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE RED
RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE DFW AREA
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 AM CST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS WACO
AROUND 7 AM...AND THEN ACROSS PALESTINE AND TEMPLE/KILLEEN AN HOUR
LATER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORT WORTH
CWA BEFORE NOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES. PARAMETERS ARE THERE INDICATIVE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN PLACE CURRENTLY
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR STORMS AND KEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OF
AROUND 50 KTS. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE THE INTERSECTION OF THIS
PARAMETER SPACE IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...PROBABLY
SUPERCELLS OR POSSIBLY MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS ASSUMING STRONG FORCING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR RELEASING THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENERGY INTO STORMS.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE
CAPPING INVERSION IN THE 850 TO 800 MB LAYER...WHICH IS QUITE
STOUT AT 300 TO 400 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR SURFACE
BASED AIR PARCELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE THAT STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
LIFT AND COOL A LARGE CHUNK OF THIS CAPPING INVERSION...HOWEVER
THE CAP APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENTLY IN PLACE UNTIL 2-3 HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THIS BEING THE CASE...THERE WOULD BE NEARLY A ZERO
CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED STORMS AND TORNADOES ACROSS THE CWA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING. DAMAGING WIND MAY BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE ELEVATED
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ANY VERTICAL MOTIONS WITHIN THE FRONTAL
INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMPENED BY HIGH STABILITY. THAT
LEAVES A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL...WHICH CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. LEFT A MENTION OF
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
FOR TOMORROW MORNING AS A RESULT IN OUR GRAPHICAL HAZARD IMAGES.
BEHIND THE FRONT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO 80 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS CHANCES FOR ALL LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE
AT LEAST ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY HIGH
AT THIS TIME. MOST PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS AIR
PARCELS LIFTED FROM THE 900 TO 850 MB LAYER ARE CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST TO HAVE 3-500 J/KG OF POSITIVE CAPE. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNFORTUNATELY
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SPREADS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE CWA. THIS IS
UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THIS TIME WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES BUILDING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE DAY.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT...WE
SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO FREEZING RAIN...TO
FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET TO ALL SLEET THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING ICE
AND SLEET FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO
PLANO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AS THESE LOCATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SPEND MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING. FROM THIS LINE
SOUTH TO A LINE FROM CISCO TO CLIFTON TO ATHENS (THIS INCLUDES THE
DFW METROPLEX)...EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS OF ICE AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION SIMPLY BECAUSE THE SUB-FREEZING AIR IS SLOWER TO
BUILD IN...AND THESE AREAS SAW TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOUT 10 DEGREES
HIGHER TODAY THAN LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN
SO WARM OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. JUST LOOKING AT MODEL OUTPUT AND
FORECAST WATER EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AND CONVERTING THAT
DIRECTLY INTO ICE IS A VERY POOR ESTIMATE OF ICE ACCUMULATION FOR
THIS EVENT BECAUSE SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE CWA. IT WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT OF TIME FOR SOIL
TEMPERATURES TO FALL...MEANING THAT A LARGE PORTION OF ANY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS...EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING...WILL NOT STICK TO THE GROUND. ESTIMATING HOW MUCH
RAINFALL WILL RUN OFF VERSUS HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE AS ICE IS
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. AT THIS TIME FORECAST ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS
ARE APPROXIMATELY 25 PERCENT OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO FALL AS WATER
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.
WHETHER THIS IS AGGRESSIVE OR CONSERVATIVE WILL DEPEND AT LEAST
PARTIALLY ON HOW FAST WE FALL BELOW FREEZING BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. FALLING BELOW FREEZING FASTER THAN EXPECTED WILL RESULT IN
GREATER IMPACTS ON AVERAGE. WE WILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND IF IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
GET COLDER SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER...WE MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE SOME
PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY INTO A WINTER STORM WARNING BEFORE SUNDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS ICE ACCUMULATION
AND IMPACTS MAINLY RELEGATED TO ELEVATED SURFACES...WHICH IS WHY A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AND NOT A WINTER STORM
WARNING AT THIS TIME. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONE TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH...MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
WITH MOST ATTENTION FOCUSED ON SUNDAYS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINTER
WEATHER...HERE IS A QUICK SUMMARY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST:
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL
NIGHT...MEANING ANY RESIDUAL WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE UP
CAUSING ADDITIONAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
MONDAY MORNING WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE ZERO TO MINUS 5 DEGREES
FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...ASSUMING THIS DOES NOT CHANGE IN FUTURE
FORECASTS...WE WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE VERY COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES.
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS OF THE DAY. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CLOSELY IN CASE IMPACTS ARE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. CURRENTLY...ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.
WE WILL WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT HAVE LOW RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH YET ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE REGION. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AT
THIS TIME.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 36 39 16 36 24 / 60 80 10 0 10
WACO, TX 59 63 20 41 29 / 20 80 10 0 10
PARIS, TX 35 38 11 34 22 / 60 90 30 0 10
DENTON, TX 32 33 14 34 21 / 60 80 10 0 10
MCKINNEY, TX 33 35 13 34 19 / 60 80 20 0 10
DALLAS, TX 38 41 16 37 25 / 50 80 10 0 10
TERRELL, TX 44 52 15 36 23 / 50 80 20 0 10
CORSICANA, TX 59 62 18 38 26 / 30 80 20 0 10
TEMPLE, TX 66 67 21 42 30 / 10 80 10 0 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 32 33 14 36 23 / 50 80 10 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
TXZ115>123-129>135-144>146.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107.
&&
$$
58/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
602 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS ON THE DOOR OF KLBB AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AROUND
01 UTC WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE E-NE. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHED FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN THE
PARTICULARS OF AVIATION FORECAST IS LOW. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
LIKELY TO PERSIST AT KCDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAIN IF
THEY WILL DEVELOP INTO KLBB. ALSO...SHOWERS OF LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...POSSIBLY IMPACTING
EITHER OR BOTH TERMINALS IN THE ROUGHLY 08 UTC TO 18 UTC TIME
FRAME. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST AT KLBB...BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...
HARSH CHANGES AWAIT THE SOUTH PLAINS FOLLOWING OUR LATE SPRING-LIKE
WARMTH OF TODAY. ONE NEED ONLY LOOK AT THE 21Z STATE TEMPS THAT
RANGED FROM 91 IN BRADY TO JUST THE LOWER 20S IN PERRYTON...NOT FAR
FROM SNOW ALREADY OBSERVED IN THE OK PANHANDLE! STATIONARY FRONT AT
21Z STRETCHED FROM HAPPY SOUTHEAST TO FLOYDADA AND JAYTON. 88D
ALREADY SHOWS THIS FRONT EDGING SOUTHWESTWARD AND THIS TREND WILL
ONLY ACCELERATE IN THE COMING HOURS AS AN AXIS OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. RUC HAS BEEN QUITE SOLID
TODAY WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND INDICATES COLD FROPA AT LUBBOCK NEAR
SUNSET. TEMPORARY DILUTION OF STRATUS NEAR CHILDRESS SHOULD RESUME
IN THE COMING HOURS AND GRADUALLY EXPAND SWWD TONIGHT.
BRUNT OF THE FORECAST CHALLENGE DOES NOT CONCERN THE FRONT...BUT
RATHER AN AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS
SRN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A DECAYING UPPER LOW IN SRN
CALIFORNIA. LATEST MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS MOISTURE RATHER
WELL...BUT CONSIDERING THE PARENT LOW WILL BE DISSOLVING INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT...THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH
OF THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE CAN TRANSLATE INTO PRECIP FOR OUR AREA? WE
ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE SETUP...BUT DO
ACKNOWLEDGE A WINDOW FROM 12Z TO 18Z WHEN BOTH LIFT AND DEEPENING
SATURATION LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHT PRECIP. AS THE MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX TRACKS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NWRN COUNTIES BY SUN AFTN...LIFT
SHOULD BE BOLSTERED AS IT ENCOUNTERS ELEVATED FN FORCING TRAILING
OUR SURFACE FRONT. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX...OUR SERN
COUNTIES LOOK TO MISS OUT ON THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES...SO POPS HAVE
BEEN REDUCED HERE WHILE BUMPING UP TO LIKELY MENTION N-NW OF LUBBOCK.
PRECIP PHASE IS THE NEXT CHALLENGE...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS A WHOLE
INSIST ON KEEPING SOME DEGREE OF A WARM NOSE PRESENT ALOFT WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUSTAIN A WINTRY MIX LONGER THAN WE/D CARE TO SEE. WE
DID SIDE A BIT COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE AIRMASS INVOLVED...SO
THIS RESULTS IN A BROADER COVERAGE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
AND SLEET. ALL SNOW MAY BE HARD TO COME BY SO LONG AS WE RETAIN SOME
MELTING ALOFT. ALSO...THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE
SMALL AS THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY DEEPEN WITH TIME AND TIP THE SCALES
IN FAVOR OF SLEET. GROUND TEMPS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
ICING...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMS OF SLEET AND A THIN
GLAZE OF ICE ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED IN OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES WHERE WE HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY.
CLIMATOLOGY ALSO TENDS TO FAVOR THESE AREAS FOR WINTRY PRECIP IN
THESE SITUATIONS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST
THE ADVISORY IF NEEDED. LASTLY...WE CONTINUED TO SCALE BACK MAX
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY IN LIGHT OF ABUNDANT STRATUS AND DEEPENING COLD
AIR ADVECTION.
LONG TERM...
AFTER A QUICK ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER SUNDAY...THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY BENIGN...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TWO SEPARATE STORM
SYSTEMS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
BEGINNING TOMORROW EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED...HOWEVER THE COLD AIR WILL
UNFORTUNATELY LINGER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WHILE
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT AT RECOVERY ACROSS
AT LEAST THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON... TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
REGION...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST...TO THE LOW 30S IN THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
SUBDUED...GRADUAL MODERATION WILL BEGIN TUESDAY UNDER A REGIME OF
WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS...WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF STUBBORN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. FROM
HERE...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE STATUS QUO...MORE OR LESS...BY
SENDING A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE OPEN SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN WOULD LIKELY YIELD LITTLE MORE THAN
DRY...MILD COLD FRONTS ACROSS WEST TEXAS...AND AS OF NOW IS THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION GOING FORWARD. ON THE OTHER HAND... THE ECMWF
IS MUCH DEEPER AND SLOWER IN ITS DEPICTION OF UPPER WAVES ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. LIKEWISE...THIS
DEPICTION WOULD RESULT IN MUCH GREATER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IF IT WERE TO PAN OUT. FOR NOW THOUGH...THIS FORECAST WILL OPT TO
SIDE WITH THE DRIER GFS UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS IS REACHED AMONG
OPERATIONAL MODELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 33 33 16 48 26 / 30 60 0 0 0
TULIA 26 28 12 42 25 / 20 60 10 0 0
PLAINVIEW 27 30 12 43 25 / 10 60 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 34 34 18 45 26 / 10 60 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 29 31 15 43 25 / 10 50 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 38 46 19 48 27 / 10 40 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 35 36 18 46 26 / 10 40 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 22 25 9 33 22 / 10 40 10 0 0
SPUR 27 29 11 38 23 / 10 30 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 29 29 10 38 23 / 20 20 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>030.
&&
$$
33/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
553 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...TIMING OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND AND SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE
FRONT. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET POSSIBLE LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING IN THE METROPLEX.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS TREKKING SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
AROUND 09Z. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO FREEZING 16-17Z SUNDAY /10-11 AM CST/ IN THE
METROPLEX. AT THAT TIME...THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN...AND THE FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND IF THIS
HAPPENS...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL END UP BEING HEAVIER THAN
THE CURRENT FORECAST. ALSO NOTE THAT THE FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FOR THE GROUND...AND ICING ON ELEVATED SURFACES WILL START AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY EVENING...SHUTTING OFF AROUND 02Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS LIKELY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO IFR OVERNIGHT
/AROUND 08Z/. CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO LOWER END MVFR AROUND
MIDDAY AND THESE CEILINGS WILL HOLD IN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
AT WACO...A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE
BACK IN THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO IFR BY 06Z. THE
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH 13-15Z...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN WACO. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO FREEZING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
/21-22Z/...THE RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014/
REGARDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS...WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE ADVISORY SOUTH TO A CISCO TO
CLIFTON TO ATHENS LINE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO
PLANO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS. POINTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO SEE IMPACTS FROM LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THESE IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ON ELEVATED SURFACES...IN PART DUE TO
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DETAILS
REGARDING THE FORECAST CONTINUE BELOW:
A 21Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BOUNDARY LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER WHERE MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES
IT WILL STALL OUT BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A
NOTABLE EXCEPTION SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SPIKED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG AN 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE.
WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO 80S ON CONSECUTIVE
DAYS FOR MOST POINTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...SOIL
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM...AND THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
OUR FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TO OUR NORTH...21Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA RANGED FROM THE LOWER TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 20S.
COMPARING THESE TEMPERATURES TO THE MORNING NAM 21Z FORECAST FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATED THAT THE NAM WAS RUNNING 8 TO 10
DEGREES TOO WARM WITH AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT.
UNFORTUNATELY THE NAM IS THE COLDEST OF THE POPULAR OPERATIONAL
FORECAST MODELS...SO THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT SHORT TERM SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH IN THE FORECAST MODELS MOVING
FORWARD. THE RAP IS DOING THE BEST JOB RESOLVING 21Z
TEMPERATURES...BUT THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE RAP
INGESTS NEW DATA EACH HOUR. AT ANY RATE...CONTINUED TO RELY UPON
THE NAM HEAVILY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...JUST LIKE THE
MIDNIGHT CREW...BECAUSE THE NAM IS THE COLDEST AND FASTEST WITH
THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TWO BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA (THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER...THEN THE ARCTIC FRONT TO THE
NORTH) IT WAS DIFFICULT TO TRACK THE SOUTHERN PROGRESS OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF THE RED RIVER FRONT...AND PARTIALLY DUE TO
NORTHERLY WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER NORTH THROUGH KANSAS
MASKING THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRULY ARCTIC AIRMASS.
BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AT 21Z THE FRONT APPEARED TO
BE NEAR A LINE FROM CANADIAN TX TO WATONGA OK TO PONCA CITY OK.
TRACKING THIS FRONT WILL ALSO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A FASTER
OR SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD HAVE DRASTIC IMPACTS ON OUR
FORECAST AND IMPACTS.
TO THE FORECAST...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE RED
RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE DFW AREA
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 AM CST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS WACO
AROUND 7 AM...AND THEN ACROSS PALESTINE AND TEMPLE/KILLEEN AN HOUR
LATER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORT WORTH
CWA BEFORE NOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES. PARAMETERS ARE THERE INDICATIVE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN PLACE CURRENTLY
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR STORMS AND KEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OF
AROUND 50 KTS. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE THE INTERSECTION OF THIS
PARAMETER SPACE IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...PROBABLY
SUPERCELLS OR POSSIBLY MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS ASSUMING STRONG FORCING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR RELEASING THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENERGY INTO STORMS.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE
CAPPING INVERSION IN THE 850 TO 800 MB LAYER...WHICH IS QUITE
STOUT AT 300 TO 400 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR SURFACE
BASED AIR PARCELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE THAT STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
LIFT AND COOL A LARGE CHUNK OF THIS CAPPING INVERSION...HOWEVER
THE CAP APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENTLY IN PLACE UNTIL 2-3 HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THIS BEING THE CASE...THERE WOULD BE NEARLY A ZERO
CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED STORMS AND TORNADOES ACROSS THE CWA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING. DAMAGING WIND MAY BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE ELEVATED
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ANY VERTICAL MOTIONS WITHIN THE FRONTAL
INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMPENED BY HIGH STABILITY. THAT
LEAVES A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL...WHICH CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. LEFT A MENTION OF
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
FOR TOMORROW MORNING AS A RESULT IN OUR GRAPHICAL HAZARD IMAGES.
BEHIND THE FRONT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO 80 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS CHANCES FOR ALL LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE
AT LEAST ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY HIGH
AT THIS TIME. MOST PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS AIR
PARCELS LIFTED FROM THE 900 TO 850 MB LAYER ARE CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST TO HAVE 3-500 J/KG OF POSITIVE CAPE. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNFORTUNATELY
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SPREADS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE CWA. THIS IS
UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THIS TIME WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES BUILDING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE DAY.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT...WE
SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO FREEZING RAIN...TO
FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET TO ALL SLEET THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING ICE
AND SLEET FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO
PLANO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AS THESE LOCATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SPEND MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING. FROM THIS LINE
SOUTH TO A LINE FROM CISCO TO CLIFTON TO ATHENS (THIS INCLUDES THE
DFW METROPLEX)...EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS OF ICE AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION SIMPLY BECAUSE THE SUB-FREEZING AIR IS SLOWER TO
BUILD IN...AND THESE AREAS SAW TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOUT 10 DEGREES
HIGHER TODAY THAN LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN
SO WARM OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. JUST LOOKING AT MODEL OUTPUT AND
FORECAST WATER EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AND CONVERTING THAT
DIRECTLY INTO ICE IS A VERY POOR ESTIMATE OF ICE ACCUMULATION FOR
THIS EVENT BECAUSE SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE CWA. IT WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT OF TIME FOR SOIL
TEMPERATURES TO FALL...MEANING THAT A LARGE PORTION OF ANY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS...EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING...WILL NOT STICK TO THE GROUND. ESTIMATING HOW MUCH
RAINFALL WILL RUN OFF VERSUS HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE AS ICE IS
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. AT THIS TIME FORECAST ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS
ARE APPROXIMATELY 25 PERCENT OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO FALL AS WATER
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.
WHETHER THIS IS AGGRESSIVE OR CONSERVATIVE WILL DEPEND AT LEAST
PARTIALLY ON HOW FAST WE FALL BELOW FREEZING BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. FALLING BELOW FREEZING FASTER THAN EXPECTED WILL RESULT IN
GREATER IMPACTS ON AVERAGE. WE WILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND IF IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
GET COLDER SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER...WE MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE SOME
PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY INTO A WINTER STORM WARNING BEFORE SUNDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS ICE ACCUMULATION
AND IMPACTS MAINLY RELEGATED TO ELEVATED SURFACES...WHICH IS WHY A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AND NOT A WINTER STORM
WARNING AT THIS TIME. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONE TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH...MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
WITH MOST ATTENTION FOCUSED ON SUNDAYS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINTER
WEATHER...HERE IS A QUICK SUMMARY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST:
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL
NIGHT...MEANING ANY RESIDUAL WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE UP
CAUSING ADDITIONAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
MONDAY MORNING WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE ZERO TO MINUS 5 DEGREES
FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...ASSUMING THIS DOES NOT CHANGE IN FUTURE
FORECASTS...WE WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE VERY COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES.
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS OF THE DAY. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CLOSELY IN CASE IMPACTS ARE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. CURRENTLY...ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.
WE WILL WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT HAVE LOW RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH YET ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE REGION. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AT
THIS TIME.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 36 39 16 36 24 / 60 80 10 0 10
WACO, TX 59 63 20 41 29 / 20 80 10 0 10
PARIS, TX 35 38 11 34 22 / 60 90 30 0 10
DENTON, TX 32 33 14 34 21 / 60 80 10 0 10
MCKINNEY, TX 33 35 13 34 19 / 60 80 20 0 10
DALLAS, TX 38 41 16 37 25 / 50 80 10 0 10
TERRELL, TX 44 52 15 36 23 / 50 80 20 0 10
CORSICANA, TX 59 62 18 38 26 / 30 80 20 0 10
TEMPLE, TX 66 67 21 42 30 / 10 80 10 0 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 32 33 14 36 23 / 50 80 10 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
TXZ115>123-129>135-144>146.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107.
&&
$$
58/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
348 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
.SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWING A COMPACT S/W TROUGH THAT GENERATED TSTORMS IN PARTS OF
THE TX PANHANDLE LAST NIGHT...THE AXIS OF STRONG WESTERLY WINDS HAVE
SINCE EXITED THE FORECAST AREA ON SCHEDULE. THESE WINDS DID RESULT
IN A BIT MORE DRAMA THAN EXPECTED THANKS TO A 59 MPH GUST AS
MEASURED BY THE GRAHAM WEST TX MESONET...BUT AS A WHOLE THE BLOWING
DUST THIS MORNING WAS NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THE HARDY RESIDENTS THAT
FREQUENT THESE PARTS.
ALREADY BY SUNSET...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE EDGING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WELL AHEAD OF A BROODING ARCTIC HIGH
STILL POISED IN THE WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. DO BELIEVE THE
NON-RUC GUIDANCE IS TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FRONT/S PROGRESS
TONIGHT...SO HAVE EDGED LOW TEMPS DOWN A BIT ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WHERE THE RUC HAS THIS BOUNDARY ROUGHLY
STALLING BY DAYBREAK. THIS BOUNDARY HOWEVER WILL RETREAT BY LATE
MORNING AS WINDS ALOFT BACK SWLY AND AMPLIFY MODESTLY AHEAD OF
SUNDAY/S UPPER TROUGH. AS WE SAW TODAY...EARLIER MODELS WERE MUCH
TOO MOIST WITH 2M DEWPOINTS...BUT THIS WAS EXPECTED IN PRIOR
FORECASTS AND WE CONTINUE TO EMPLOY THIS RATIONALE WITH TOMORROW/S
SETUP BEHIND THE RETREATING FRONT. NUDGED HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES ON
THE CAPROCK WHERE THE DRIEST AIR WILL BE FOUND AND THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT WE
SAW TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE SATURDAY. WHAT IS
CURRENTLY A WOUND-UP SPIRAL OFF THE COAST WILL BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT BASIC TO BAJA. NORTH OF THE BORDER...A COMPLEX
ELONGATED LOW SPANNING MUCH OF CANADA IS LATITUDINALLY ORIENTED
AROUND 55N. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE WEST COAST TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBTLE EMBEDDED
TROUGH INTO MONDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...YET ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES AND STARTS TO DEEPEN BEFORE DIVING INTO THE GULF COAST
SATES LATE WEEK. OUR FINAL TROUGH OF THE EXTENDED APPROACHES ON
FRIDAY.
YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SNEAKS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
MAKING FCST HIGHS QUITE TRICKY AS THE BOUNDARY HANGS UP FOR SEVERAL
HOURS ACROSS THE CWFA. THEN...WITH THE FALL OF NIGHT...THE COLDER
AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THERE
IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION.
MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND QUITE COOL BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS UP
ON TUESDAY QUICKLY REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES THOUGH PERHAPS REMAINING
A FEW DEGREES SHY OF CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN ONE
MORE DAY BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW PICKS UP FOR THURSDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF FIRE WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK.
YET ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR ENTERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS DAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
HAVE SINCE DEPARTED THE REGION...BUT 20-FOOT SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM AT WHICH POINT THE RED FLAG WARNING SHOULD
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT WILL
PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BEFORE RETREATING NORTHEAST BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. ELEVATED TO
MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ON THE CAPROCK AS SOUTHWEST WINDS RISE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH MIN RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER-TO-MID TEENS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 36 75 32 34 12 / 0 0 20 30 10
TULIA 37 75 25 29 10 / 0 0 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 39 77 27 32 11 / 0 0 10 20 10
LEVELLAND 39 80 33 45 15 / 0 0 10 20 10
LUBBOCK 38 80 29 40 14 / 0 0 10 20 10
DENVER CITY 44 79 36 54 20 / 0 0 10 20 10
BROWNFIELD 42 80 34 46 18 / 0 0 10 20 10
CHILDRESS 37 68 24 25 10 / 0 0 10 20 10
SPUR 39 80 25 34 13 / 0 0 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 39 83 25 31 12 / 0 0 20 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>023-027>031-033>044.
&&
$$
93/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
547 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING ALOFT...MID-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS OCCURRING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL FGEN IN THIS CONFLUENCE ZONE WITH HELP FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE NE/SD IS GENERATING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA TO WESTERN MICHIGAN. ACROSS THE CWA...THIS SNOW IS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 29 AND MAY SEE A HALF INCH OF ACCUM FROM
WAUTOMA TO MANITOWOC THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
SNOW BAND ARE COLD ADVECTING A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS OUT OF THE
1045MB ARCTIC HIGH. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN BELOW ZERO OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING THE END OF
THE SNOW...AND WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TONIGHT...BROAD MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHEAR AXIS AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW WITHIN THE FGEN OF THIS CONVERGENT ZONE WILL EXIT
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE IF THE
RETURNS OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST...BUT
WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE
EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THE MESO-MODELS ARE PICKING UP A MID-LAKE
SNOW BAND OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THAT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING AND
DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONE OF THE MESO MODELS INDICATES
THAT SOME OF THIS MID-LAKE SNOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES. GENERALLY DO NOT LIKE THIS IDEA...SINCE SYNOPTIC WINDS
WILL BE OFFSHORE AND ANY LAND BREEZE COMPONENT WILL WANT TO SHOVE
THE LAKE SNOW TO THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LAKE. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT KEEP ACCUMS
LIGHT.
THE OTHER PROBLEM AREA TONIGHT WILL BE WIND CHILLS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE SURFACE GRADIENT TO BE A LITTLE TOO TIGHT FOR
DECOUPLING THIS EVENING...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT SO
THINK SURFACE WINDS SHOULD TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPS FALLING
BELOW MINUS 20 SEEMS LIKELY...SO STUCK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS
MIN TEMPS. WITH CLOUDS OVERHEAD IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR DECOUPLING AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY NOT EXCITED TO
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WITH SO MANY QUESTION MARKS...ESPECIALLY
AFTER SO MANY LOW WIND CHILL EVENTS ALREADY. BUT WITH OFFICES TO
THE WEST ISSUING HEADLINES...WILL FOLLOW SUIT TO BLEND.
SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE SHORELINE OF MANITOWOC AND KEWAUNEE
COUNTIES WILL BE EXITING DURING THE MORNING AS DRY ARCTIC AIR FLOWS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EARLY IN THIS PERIOD WILL CONSOLIDATE MONDAY
WITH SOME MODERATION OF COLD EXPECTED AS MORE ZONAL PATTERN SETS
UP. THEREAFTER...SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FLOW TO
BRING PCPN TO AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. ISSUES WILL BE TIMING THESE
SYSTEMS. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED SO AMOUNTS WILL ON LIGHT
SIDE. BY THU...850MB TEMPS RISE INTO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...WITH SURFACE TEMPS APPROACHING 30? PATTERN BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN AS MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TROF OVER CENTER
OF U.S. COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST THIS COLDER TURN TO BE SHORT LIVED.
IN NEAR TERM....HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OUT OF NORTHERN PLAINS
AND LIGHT WINDS TO LEAD TO CONTINUING VERY COLD PERIOD THROUGH
MONDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMP FOR MARCH 3RD MAY BE IN JEOPARDY.
QUESTION ON NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY SUN NIGHT AS WINDS
EXPECTED TO DROP OFF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ESPECIALLY AFTER
6Z. WINDS ALOFT ONLY AROUND 10KTS THROUGH 850MB. WAA PATTERN...LFQ
OF JET MOVING THROUGH PLAINS TO LEAD TO NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE. STAYED WITH CHANCE POPS GIVEN MOISTURE
CONCERNS WITH EXITING DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
LIGHT SNOW AT KOSH/KMTW ALONG WITH SOME MVFR CIGS WILL EXIT
THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PREVAILING WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021-030-035-036.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1204 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
317 PM CST
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO CENTER ON THE SNOW AMOUNTS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A VERY IMPRESSIVE
MID/UPPER CIRCULATION ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...NOW APPROACHING
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS CLOSED SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG BELT OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES HAS SET UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE VORTEX OVER THE
HUDSON BAY. THIS STRONG FLOW IS EJECTING NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES APPEAR TO BE INDUCING SOME ENHANCED ASCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AS NOTED BY
THE MORE INTENSE AREAS OF SNOWFALL SHOWING UP ON RADAR. ALTHOUGH THE
SNOW HAS MAINLY BEEN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THUS FAR...THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS A
STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE...ASSOCIATED WITH AN 850 MB FRONT...SAGS
SOUTHWARD INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF
SOME DECENT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS SOME GOOD
FRONTOGENETIC INDUCED FORCING FOR ASCENT SETS UP OVER THE AREA. THIS
GOOD FORCING SHOULD ALSO CORRESPOND WITH SOME DECENT MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...PER BOTH MODEL AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS...LIKELY
SUPPORTING SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RATES AT TIMES.
IT APPEARS THAT THIS STRONGLY FORCED SNOW EVENT WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT
LIVED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN RATHER
PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME GOOD RATES AT TIMES
THIS EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT A SHORTER DURATION WILL KEEP SNOW
TOTALS IN CHECK...LIKELY REMAINING LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THROUGH. AS
SUCH...I THINK MOST AREAS WILL END UP CLOSER TO A 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH SOME AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN SOME AREAS.
THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES
LATER THIS EVENING...WHILE ENDING FAR NORTH LATER TONIGHT. IT
APPEARS THAT THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE VORTEX OVER THE HUDSON BAY BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION...DRIER AND COLDER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE FORCED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW AMOUNTS MAY END UP UNDER 6 INCHES
ACROSS EVEN MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS WELL. THE SNOW MAY TO OVER FOR
MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
THE ONLY OTHER THREAT FOR SNOW...WILL BE FROM SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THERMODYNAMICS FAVORABLE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. SOME OF THE
HIGHER RES GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS THAT A MESO LOW MAY SHIFT DOWN THE
LAKE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME BETTER
ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY
REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS SHORES...AS THE FLOW SHOULD
REMAIN MORE NORTHWEST. IN SPITE OF THIS...I DID LEAVE SOME LOW END
POPS NEAR THE LAKE FOR THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT COME ONSHORE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKE...BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.
THE MAIN STORY AFTER THE SNOW WILL BE A RETURN TO SOME COLD AIR. IT
APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...POSSIBLY REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW 20S BY TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
KJB
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGH/LOW TEMPS...WITH LOW CHANCE POSSIBILITIES FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD.
GENERAL WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN SEVERAL WAVES OF
ENERGY THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THESE
FEATURES AND RESULTANT QPF. ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO VARY WITH
THE STRENGTH OF A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AND THEN IS A TAD MORE BULLISH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...WHATEVER DEVELOPS SHOULD BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE AND QUICKLY EXIT...AND WITH THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. PATTERN TRIES TO BECOME
MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WHILE SHOWING SIGNS OF SLIGHT
WARMING...AS LARGE SCALE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WHILE LARGE VORT MAX SHIFTS EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA. TAIL END OF THIS ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK...AS WINDS BACK AND WAA OCCURS OUT AHEAD OF IT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY
FRIDAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THEN POSSIBLE AS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT MOVE OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...THIS WARMING
WILL BE BRIEF AS COLDER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SNOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS NEXT 2-3
HOURS...BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB 1SM VSBY STILL POSSIBLE.
* MAINLY MVFR CIGS NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VARIABLE MVFR/VFR BEYOND
THAT.
* LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING. CIGS
IMPROVING TO STEADY VFR.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
THE MAIN FORCING DRIVING SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS AT THE
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH GYY WILL SEE A LONGER
DURATION OF SNOWFALL AND ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF 1/2-3/4SM VSBY.
UNTIL THEN...VARIABLE IFR VSBY WILL CONTINUE AT ORD/MDW/DPA WITH
A TREND TOWARDS MVFR VSBY AS SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH. LIGHTER SNOW WILL
THEN LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL RESULT
IN ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AND LESS VSBY REDUCTION. RFD
SHOULD SEE A QUICKER END TO THE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED VSBY
REDUCTIONS. CIGS REMAIN RATHER VARIABLE BUT MAINLY MVFR. STEADIER
VFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TERMINALS BUT
SOLID VFR LOOKS TO TAKE A WHILE TO REACH THE AREA SO WILL CARRY A
MIX OF MVFR/VFR CLOUDS BEHIND THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH LATE MORNING
AT ORD/MDW/DPA BUT CHANCES FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LOOKING
MINIMAL AT THIS POINT WITH ANY BANDS EXPECTED TO SET UP WELL
OFFSHORE. GYY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGER SCALE SNOW WHICH WILL
STILL BE GRADUALLY WORKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING BUT MAY
ALSO BE IN LINE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS WELL...THOUGH ANY
BANDS MAY REMAIN TO THE EAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING IN FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON THOUGH
SOME SCATTERED MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS COULD LINGER. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW INTENSITY/VSBY TRENDS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODIC LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
1248 PM CST
BY AND LARGE RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE LAKE THE
NEXT WEEK OR SO...THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT A LAKE
ENHANCED MESO-LOW DEVELOPING AND DROPPING SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE
RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF 25-30KT NORTHERLY WINDS TRACK SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THIS SMALL SCALE LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY.
GIVEN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE IN THE HIGHER RES
GUIDANCE WILL BE ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THIS
PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL
MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012 UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022 UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...6 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1112 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 852 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
Band of snow that was to our northwest thru most of the day has
finally made it into west central and central Illinois and we
should see it fill in much more across the area over the next
3 to 4 hours. Preceding the snow, we have had areas of freezing
drizzle over east central and central Illinois as the cloud top
layer was supporting mainly supercooled water droplets. However,
after about a 1 to 2 hour period, ice crystals are introduced
resulting in a transition over to snow, similar to what is
occurring now over parts of west central and central Illinois.
Latest HRRR model suggests the transition zone from freezing
drizzle, sleet and snow will settle to along or just south of I72
by midnight, with snow to the north. Snowfall totals in the band
to our northwest from this afternoon thru early this evening have
ranged from 2 to 4 inches, so see no reason we shouldn`t see
similar reports in our north late tonight into Sunday morning.
Have already updated the zones earlier this evening to address
the timing of the snow and freezing drizzle across the north.
The remainder of the forecast is in good shape so am not planning
on any additional zone updates at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1105 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
Snow increasing in coverage over parts of northeast Missouri and
that is tracking east towards our southern TAF sites late tonight.
Further north, the band of snow that moved in during the evening
and that is affecting the I74 corridor will continue to slowly
settle south as the night wears on. Expect MVFR cigs with tempo
IFR to LIFR cigs/vsbys in some of the heavier snow bands overnight.
Still could see some snow and freezing drizzle mix in at times
at SPI and DEC before snow becomes the dominant precip type. Still
seeing some hints of the snow shifting south of of PIA and BMI sites
after 18z and will continue to trend in that direction but keep MVFR
cigs/vsbys going further south into the afternoon hours as models
were suggesting another band of snow setting up in that area after
18z. Accumulations across the TAF sites look to be in the 3 to 6
inch range with the heavier totals in an axis extending from
Jacksonville and SPI east-northeast towards CMI.
Surface winds will remain from the northeast to north at 12 to 17kts
tonight with winds backing more into a 340-010 direction by late
Sunday morning into the afternoon hours with similar speeds.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 310 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tomorrow night...
Storm developing over the west coast, expected to move in and move
along an elongated piece of energy hovering with the quasi
baroclinic zone across the Midwest. The initial impact of
precip/snow for the FA will be frontogenetic in nature before
changing over to more of a deformation zone. Details are changing
as far as the duration of the precip, now ending sooner...the
thermal profiles, altering ptype...and the locations of the best
heavy snowfall potential. All models have been backing off of
precip at times, while still pointing to banding and mesoscale
enhancements to the snowfall. Enough borderline conditions in a
couple of time frames to raise concerns for impact based warnings.
Changed the product headlines across the area to reflect this. One
major concern is the changing thermal profile in the SE. Should
the evaporative cooling eliminate the very subtle warm layer in
the mid levels (GFS is far more subtle and shallow than the NAM),
the QPF will be even more dedicated to snow. This would result in
higher amounts. This, in addition to the proximity to the greatest
chance for mixed precip and signif ice potential, is the reason for
the Winter Storm Warning. Though criteria may be missed as this is
over more than a 24 hr time frame...impact and collaboration have
resulted in that warning decision. Elsewhere...the QPF is
currently outside of the warning criteria over any 24 hr pd and
trending down. That being said, a lot of snow is coming.
Isentropic lift is weak at best over ILX, more signif to the
south. Fn vectors maxed over saturated 1000-500mb RH supporting
the frontogenetic forcing from 03z-12z over ILX. At that point the
movement stalls somewhat as the sfc system begins to develop over
the southwest and move NE through the region. Where exactly the
storm stalls will greatly impact ILX. Too far south and the totals
may need to be knocked down even further. A little further to the
north and the weak deformation region will shift. HPC snow totals
not in complete agreement with the QPF, and as a result have kept
the warning area as conservative as possible. Situation will be
very subject to adjustments through the overnight hours. Last
couple runs have brought the precip to an end sooner...with the
NAM and the GFS both out of the CWA by 12z Monday morning.
LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
More cold air for the extended. Mon-Thursday still well below
freezing. Although Friday is showing signs of a warm up, the WAA
looks a bit weak at this point. Brief waves bringing quick shot of
precip possibly on Wed across the north. Otherwise, dry beyond
the current storm.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ054>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Sunday FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>043-047>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ044>046.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1155 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY AS DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SAME AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON AND COLUMBUS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A WINTRY MIX
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE LATE WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S AND 50S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
WITH THE EARLIER EVENING UPDATE PUSHED BACK ONSET OF PRECIP BY A
COUPLE HOURS. THIS UPDATE WAS LOOKING SIMILAR...BUT PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED AND SOME MORE ENHANCED ECHOES ON
RADAR ARE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THUS LEFT MOST OF
EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE IN PLACE BUT ADDED THE PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME DRY AIR ALOFT TO OVERCOME
BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO MEASURABLE PRECIP CAN BEGIN. ONSET OF
MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST SHOULD START IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...THE CENTRAL COUNTIES WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF THAT...AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER /AROUND 7-9Z/. DID NOT DEVIATE ON
PRECIP TYPE WITH AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM KIND LOOKING VERY SIMILAR
TO RAP SOUNDINGS WHICH STILL SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLEET IN THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES AND FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
MANY MAJOR CHALLENGES REGARDING THIS LOOMING WINTER STORM INCLUDING
PRECIPITATION AND TIMING OF CHANGEOVERS...SNOW AMOUNTS INCLUDING
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AXIS...ICE AMOUNTS AND TIMING.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW FARTHER SOUTH WITH A COLD FRONT THAT THEY HAVE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE NEW EURO AND 12Z GFS
ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND ALSO WITH
TWO WAVES ALONG THE FRONT. THIS TRANSLATES TO A COLDER COLUMN
COMPARED TO THE 12Z NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE SREF. TRIED TO USE A
COMBINATION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH CANADIAN PARTIAL
THICKNESSES TO DETERMINE BEST PRECIPITATION TYPES AND TRANSITION
ZONES OVER THE LIFE OF THIS WINTER STORM. AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF AN
ATTICA TO TIPTON SHOULD START OFF AS ALL SNOW BEING FURTHER
ENTRENCHED IN THE COLD AIR. MEANWHILE...AREAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF
RUSHVILLE AND TERRE HAUTE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION START OFF AS
RAIN. IN BETWEEN...NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...IT SHOULD START
TRANSITION NORTHWARD FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW.
OVERNIGHT...THINGS SHOULD START TO PICK UP WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW NORTHWEST...ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND A
MIX IN BETWEEN. FINALLY...IT SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SNOW BY LATE
MORNING AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL IT ENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY
MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
MODELS AGREE ON GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K LEVEL TONIGHT WITH
3 TO 4 G/KG MIXING RATIOS. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE STARTING NORTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WITH
THE REST OF CENTRAL INDIANA FILLING IN BY MIDNIGHT.
MODELS AGREE THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
IN THE EVENT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH BY SUNDAY MORNING.
FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD HANG ON THE LONGEST IN THE SOUTH. CONSIDERING
THESE FACTORS AND HOW LONG EACH LOCAL WITH SEE SNOW...PLACED THE
HIGHEST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AXIS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST SECTIONS WOULD SEE
NEAR 6 INCHES UNDER THIS REASONING WITH 4 TO 6 SOUTH. SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF VINCENNES COULD SEE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF ICE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
WITH STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES...CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW THIS
WINTER STORM WILL PLAY OUT...AND HOW HIGH SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS WILL
BE...COULD STILL BE BETTER. BUT REGARDLESS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WILL STICK WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS AND A WINTER STORM WARNING
ELSEWHERE FOR THE SAME TIME AS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER AND/OR
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ICE AMOUNTS UNDERNEATH THE SNOW.
DID NOT DEPART TOO FAR FROM 12Z MOS AND CONSALL BLEND WITH STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL BE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR.
THE CENTER OF BROAD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA BY MONDAY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH FRESH SNOW PACK...PREFER THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES OF THE 12Z GFS MOS AND ALLBLEND WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MONDAY NIGHT NORTH AND IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE ON WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MIDWEEK...WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND COMMENCING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY MORNING...TRACKING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY SATURDAY. WHILE THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
MAY COME AS FAR WEST AS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...EXPECTING LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE HERE IN CENTRAL INDIANA. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS WILL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE 40S BY FRIDAY.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE
UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/06Z TAF/...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
CHALLENGING FORECAST EVOLUTION THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY DETERIORATING TO IFR OR WORSE DURING THE PERIOD AS A
WINTER STORM IMPACTS THE TERMINALS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES DROPPING SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 08-14KT ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS A
RESULT.
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG AND OVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT
IN WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT ALL SITES. WILL KEEP IND/HUF AND
ESPECIALLY LAF MOST SNOW. HOWEVER...SOME FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE ICE
GROWTH ZONE AND THIS MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS OR SO. MIX
OF TYPES IS MUCH MORE LIKELY AT BMG OVERNIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO ALL
SNOW IN THE MORNING.
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MOST INTENSE
BANDING...AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME THIS AT EACH SITE BASED ON THE
POSITION OF THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND WILL PUT IT AT
1/2SM SN FG OVC004 DURING THAT TIME...BUT CONDITIONS BRIEFLY BELOW
MINIMUMS WILL DEFINITELY BE A THREAT AT EACH SITE. SHOULD BEGIN TO
SEE IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW EVENING AT ALL SITES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ036-037-
039>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035-038.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1158 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
The AVIATION section has been update for the 06Z TAF issuance.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
Minor tweaks to temperatures this evening. The 3km HRRR numerical
model guidance runs have been fairly close on the freezing line
and temperature gradient across the WFO PAH forecast area...so
used this guidance to keep forecast temperatures within
verification tolerance.
Decided not to eliminate measurable PoPs/Weather for this evening
and overnight. Local and regional radar has been showing transient
echoes associated with light rain or drizzle. The transition to
freezing and frozen precipitation may be an hour to two faster
than what is actually occurring, but trend is close enough not to
alter too much.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
Confidence is becoming fairly high that a major winter storm will
impact most of the forecast area Sunday and Sunday night. All
watches have now been upgraded to some type of warning headline.
Ice Storm Warnings will be in place in a swath south of a line from
near Fulton KY to Greenville KY, where freezing rain will be the
most predominant for the longest time frame later Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. Elevated instability also point so a decent chc
of getting some thunder, esp in wrn KY and se MO/far srn IL
Sunday evening. Confidence is increasing that a major icing event
will unfold over the ice storm warning region, Would not be
surprised to see ice accumulations at least in the 1/2 to 3/4 inch
range esp Sunday night as a sfc low lifts ene through the Gulf
Coast states. Current models agree on a good inch or two of liquid
falling into sub freezing air.
Farther north in the Winter Storm Warning area...esp along and
just north of the Ohio River, significant freezing rain and sleet
Sunday could be followed by a few to several inches of snow Sunday
night, before the snow winds down early Monday. Cold air should be
deeper quicker north of the Shawnee Hills, resulting in a quicker
change to all sleet and snow Sunday. However, moisture should be
more limited up in that region, which hopefully will keep totals
from exceeding 4 to 6 inches or so.
Very cold arctic air will plunge in for the Monday/Tuesday time
frame, ensuring whatever ice/snow falls with the storm will surely
be with us for awhile. Single digits appear likely at night, with
highs well below freezing.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
rather uneventful weather pattern will take hold through the
remainder of the week. Stratified upper level flow will tend to keep
any weather systems either north or south of the immediate region
through Friday. The core of arctic high pressure will shift across
southeast Canada and the Great Lakes region into the Northeast by
Thursday. The forecast region will be on the southern periphery of
this high. As a result, expect unseasonably cold weather to start
the week. As the week progresses, the combination of slowly warming
temperatures and an increasing March sun angle should help to erode
the snow and ice cover that will be in place at the beginning of the
week. While temperatures will hold below freezing through Tuesday,
we expect highs to climb into the 30s on Wednesday, 40s Thursday,
and perhaps even 50s by Friday.
By late week, both the GFS and ECMWF bring the another piece of
energy east across the Plains with an approaching cold front. Both
models are not quite in agreement with respect to timing, but the
general idea yields our next chance of precipitation by the weekend.
As a result, we have introduced a slight chance of rain showers
Friday night and Saturday. At this point, temperatures appear warm
enough to support mainly liquid precipitation late next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
The latest guidance in general seems to be emphasizing sleet more,
as the warm layer hangs on through much of the period and the cold
layer gets deep and cold enough to re-freeze the rain. All sites
could see some light showers for the first half of the overnight
period, but true MVFR freezing rain will spread east over the area
after 09Z. Ceilings will drop to MVFR overnight, and IFR levels
may not be too far behind, especially at KCGI. Held them off until
afternoon, but that could be too slow.
It looks like the main area of heaviest precipitation will spread
northeast over the area 21Z through the remainder of the period.
IFR ceilings and visibilities will be a better possibility then.
Should the change over to sleet in the late afternoon north and in
the early evening south. Did mention some IFR snow after 03Z at
KEVV.
Winds will be from the north through the period, and will climb
to 15 to 20kts by late afternoon. The winds will remain at those
levels through the evening.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
ILZ077-078-082-083-085>094.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ075-076-080-
081-084.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
MOZ108>112-114.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday FOR
KYZ003>005-007-010-014-015-018>020.
ICE STORM WARNING from 3 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday FOR KYZ001-
002-006-008-009-011>013-016-017-021-022.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1243 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST
ALONG THIS FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO FLOW INTO THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
1245AM UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEAD OR SLOWLY RISING FOR THE LAST
FEW HOURS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
PUMPS IN MORE WARM/MOIST AIR AND CLOUD COVER PREVENTS MUCH
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAY ACTUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE
COAST BY MORNING. OTHERWISE... SOME LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN VERMONT. SOME OF THIS
LIKELY EXTENDS INTO FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE.
THIS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS OVERNIGHT...
WITH UPSLOPE SNOW STARTING AS THE SURFACE FRONT ARRIVES.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT
TONIGHT IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WHERE ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. MESOSCALE MODELS CONSISTENT
WITH THIS IDEA...HOWEVER THE LATEST HRRR RUN APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE WITH PRECIPITATION FOR THE COASTAL REGIONS OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME OF OUR COLDEST
SPOTS LAST NIGHT REACHED 20 BELOW ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL SAG WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER IS PASSES
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING. 12Z MODEL SUITE NOW EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES IN PORTLAND TOMORROW. IF WE
DO BREAK THE FREEZING POINT...IT WILL BE AFTER QUITE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING WEATHER. THEREAFTER...WE ARE BACK INTO
THE DEEP FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW ZERO...EVEN ALONG
THE COAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH NO SNOW PREDICTED FOR OUR AREA MONDAY.
A SECOND FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE
WITH THIS FRONT SO EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER COLD HIGH BUILDS IN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN FOR FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS IN SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...HENCE SCAS
REMAIN IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS AT OR BELOW SCA THROUGH THE FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
357 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PERSISTENT TROF
OVER CANADA WITH CORE OF COLDEST AIR/CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY.
12Z H85 TEMPS UNDER THE LOWEST HGTS ARE AOB -30C...INDLUDING -30C AT
INL AND -33C AT YPL. WITH A LLVL NW FLOW E OF ARCTIC HI PRES OVER
THE CNDN PRAIRIES BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS...THIS COLD AIR IS
ADVECTING INTO UPR MI. ALTHOUGH LATEST VSBL STLT IMAGERY SHOWS LK
SUP IS MAINLY ICE COVERED...THERE ARE STILL SOME CLD/SHSN BANDS
STREAMING INTO THE AREA AS THE UPSTREAM 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS SHOWED A
RELATIVELY MOIST LLVL AIRMASS. BUT ANY PCPN HAS BEEN ON THE LGT
SIDE...WITH EXTENSIVE ICE AND LLVL ACYC FLOW TENDING TO LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHSN. ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH INCRSG EARLY
MARCH SUN ANGLE HAS ALSO RESULTED IN MORE INSTABILITY CU/SC OVER
LAND AS WELL. SOME THICKER MID/HI CLDS ARE IMPACTING WI AND SRN UPR
MI ON THE NRN FLANK OF DISTURBANCE/DEEPER MSTR TO THE S. SN UNDER
SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 140KT H3 JET MAX STREAKING ACRS NRN MN/LK
SUP IS AS FAR N AS SRN MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLD TRENDS/CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS.
TNGT...AS CNDN HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD INTO THE NRN PLAINS...AN
ACYC NW FLOW WL DOMINATE THE UPR LKS. ALTHOUGH SOME UPR DVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK MOVING THRU THE UPR LKS WL PASS ACRS THE
SCENTRAL THIS EVNG...GENERAL DRY ADVECTION IN THE H85-7 LYR SHOULD
SUPPRESS NRN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD TO THE S OF MENOMINEE. ALTHOUGH
SOME LK CLDS/A FEW SN SHOWERS OFF LK SUP MAY LINGER UNDER THE COLD
FLOW IN THE EVNG...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS ACYC FLOW/
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN TOWARD 2K FT SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS SHOULD
RESULT IN ALMOST COMPLETE SUPPRESSION OF CLDS/SN SHOWERS OVERNGT.
WITH SKIES TURNING MOCLR AND PWAT UNDER 0.10 INCH...EXPECT SFC TEMPS
TO TUMBLE AOB -20F AT MANY OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS. GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OF THE LK THAT WL TEND TO RESULT IN LOWER TEMPS
OVER THE CWA...TRENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
FCST. LOWERING INVRN BASE/INCRSG STABILITY SHOULD KEEP SFC WINDS
UNDER THE 10 MPH THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BUT ISSUED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE RESULTING VERY LO APRNT/WIND CHILL TEMPS THAT
WL FALL AS LO AS -35F AT SOME PLACES.
SUN...THERE WL BE A SHRTWV TRACKING SEWD TO THE NE OF UPR MI AND
THRU ONTARIO...BUT BULK OF ASSOCIATED UPR FORCING WL REMAIN TO THE
NE OF UPR MI. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSAGE OF ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LO PRES TROF MAY RESULT IN SOME CLDS AND EVEN A FEW LGT SN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA TOWARD THE ACCOMPANYING
DYANMIC FORCING...LO INVRN BASES SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO RANGE FM NEAR -20C OVER THE SCENTRAL TO AS LO AS
-24C OR -25C OVER THE N. WITH THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER...TEMPS WL
REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
PRETTY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM RELATIVE TO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING IN ON OR AFTER THURSDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE WITH DETAILS OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM IS LIMITED.
FOR REFERENCE...850MB TEMPS OVER THE CWA YESTERDAY /SAT/ WERE AROUND
-25C WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO. MONDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH 850MB
TEMPS CLOSER TO -15C...LEADING TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS...GIVEN THAT MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO. A WEAK SFC TROUGH AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...INCREASING CLOUD
COVER DURING THAT TIME. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COLDER...BUT GIVEN THAT MON NIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE FROM THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BELOW ZERO...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO MON. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE
WEAK SHORTWAVE LATE MON NIGHT-TUE...SO WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST. WED SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE TEENS AS A SFC
HIGH MOVES E OF THE CWA. NOT ALL THAT MUCH CONFIDENCE AFTER WED DUE
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY...BUT OVERALL
EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN CONTROL. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM NW ONTARIO THIS AFTN WHICH MAY ALLOW CIGS TO
DEVELOP AROUND 3500 FT AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT CMX. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT VSBYS COULD BE REDUCED WITH ANY SNOW SHOWER AT CMX
LATER INTO THE AFTN OR EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL. HOWEVER...BLSN WITH A 6SM VSBY WILL BE
INCLUDED AT CMX DUE TO WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 30 KT. COULD SEE MVFR
OR EVEN IFR VSBYS AT CMX IN THE AFTN/EVE BUT AGAIN NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE INTO THE TERMINAL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
EXPECT NW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS TO THE E OF HI PRES BUILDING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KTS AFTER MON NIGHT AS
THE HI CENTER PASSES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1248 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PERSISTENT TROF
OVER CANADA WITH CORE OF COLDEST AIR/CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY.
12Z H85 TEMPS UNDER THE LOWEST HGTS ARE AOB -30C...INDLUDING -30C AT
INL AND -33C AT YPL. WITH A LLVL NW FLOW E OF ARCTIC HI PRES OVER
THE CNDN PRAIRIES BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS...THIS COLD AIR IS
ADVECTING INTO UPR MI. ALTHOUGH LATEST VSBL STLT IMAGERY SHOWS LK
SUP IS MAINLY ICE COVERED...THERE ARE STILL SOME CLD/SHSN BANDS
STREAMING INTO THE AREA AS THE UPSTREAM 12Z INL/YPL RAOBS SHOWED A
RELATIVELY MOIST LLVL AIRMASS. BUT ANY PCPN HAS BEEN ON THE LGT
SIDE...WITH EXTENSIVE ICE AND LLVL ACYC FLOW TENDING TO LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHSN. ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH INCRSG EARLY
MARCH SUN ANGLE HAS ALSO RESULTED IN MORE INSTABILITY CU/SC OVER
LAND AS WELL. SOME THICKER MID/HI CLDS ARE IMPACTING WI AND SRN UPR
MI ON THE NRN FLANK OF DISTURBANCE/DEEPER MSTR TO THE S. SN UNDER
SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 140KT H3 JET MAX STREAKING ACRS NRN MN/LK
SUP IS AS FAR N AS SRN MN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CLD TRENDS/CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS.
TNGT...AS CNDN HI PRES CONTINUES TO BLD INTO THE NRN PLAINS...AN
ACYC NW FLOW WL DOMINATE THE UPR LKS. ALTHOUGH SOME UPR DVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK MOVING THRU THE UPR LKS WL PASS ACRS THE
SCENTRAL THIS EVNG...GENERAL DRY ADVECTION IN THE H85-7 LYR SHOULD
SUPPRESS NRN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD TO THE S OF MENOMINEE. ALTHOUGH
SOME LK CLDS/A FEW SN SHOWERS OFF LK SUP MAY LINGER UNDER THE COLD
FLOW IN THE EVNG...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS ACYC FLOW/
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN TOWARD 2K FT SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS SHOULD
RESULT IN ALMOST COMPLETE SUPPRESSION OF CLDS/SN SHOWERS OVERNGT.
WITH SKIES TURNING MOCLR AND PWAT UNDER 0.10 INCH...EXPECT SFC TEMPS
TO TUMBLE AOB -20F AT MANY OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS. GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OF THE LK THAT WL TEND TO RESULT IN LOWER TEMPS
OVER THE CWA...TRENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
FCST. LOWERING INVRN BASE/INCRSG STABILITY SHOULD KEEP SFC WINDS
UNDER THE 10 MPH THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES...BUT ISSUED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE RESULTING VERY LO APRNT/WIND CHILL TEMPS THAT
WL FALL AS LO AS -35F AT SOME PLACES.
SUN...THERE WL BE A SHRTWV TRACKING SEWD TO THE NE OF UPR MI AND
THRU ONTARIO...BUT BULK OF ASSOCIATED UPR FORCING WL REMAIN TO THE
NE OF UPR MI. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND PASSAGE OF ATTENDANT WEAK
SFC LO PRES TROF MAY RESULT IN SOME CLDS AND EVEN A FEW LGT SN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA TOWARD THE ACCOMPANYING
DYANMIC FORCING...LO INVRN BASES SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO RANGE FM NEAR -20C OVER THE SCENTRAL TO AS LO AS
-24C OR -25C OVER THE N. WITH THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER...TEMPS WL
REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL
TRANSITION AWAY FROM THE VERY COLD AIR AS THE HIGH LATITUDE RIDGING
INTO ERN AK SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO ERN SIBERIA. THE RESULTING
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE SEVERE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO SHIFT OFF
TO THE NE AND MORE MODERATE PACIFIC AIR INTO THE CNTRL CONUS.
HOWEVER...A TREND BACK TOWARD RIDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH NW
FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES WILL KEEP ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE REGION FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SUN NIGHT...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN DROP TO THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...INTO THE -20F TO -30F RANGE INLAND WITH
TEENS BELOW READINGS CLOSER TO THE LAKES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OPEN
WATER PATCHES OVER THE S CNTRL LAKE FOR SOME ISOLD -SHSN INTO THE NE
CWA. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
MON INTO TUE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MON SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE 10F TO 15F RANGE. WNW TO W WINDS SHOULD KEEP ANY
LIGHT LES NEAR THE SHORE IN THE NE CWA. A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COULD BRING AN AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SINCE THE MODELS STILL SHOWED DIFFERENCES WITH
THE GFS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/GEM...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED. EVEN THE MORE
NRN TRACK WOULD ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
WED...MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
WITH DRY WEATHER AND MORE MODERATE BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS.
THU-SAT...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NRN LAKES BY THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH BETTER MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED GIVE TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES. THE WARMEST CONDITONS OF THE WEEK ARE POSSIBLE BY THU
WITH TEMPS NEAR 30F. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWVM
SHOULD BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE
LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN CONTROL. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM NW ONTARIO THIS AFTN WHICH MAY ALLOW CIGS TO
DEVELOP AROUND 3500 FT AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT CMX. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT VSBYS COULD BE REDUCED WITH ANY SNOW SHOWER AT CMX
LATER INTO THE AFTN OR EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL. HOWEVER...BLSN WITH A 6SM VSBY WILL BE
INCLUDED AT CMX DUE TO WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 30 KT. COULD SEE MVFR
OR EVEN IFR VSBYS AT CMX IN THE AFTN/EVE BUT AGAIN NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE INTO THE TERMINAL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
EXPECT NW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS TO THE E OF HI PRES BUILDING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KTS AFTER MON NIGHT AS
THE HI CENTER PASSES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1051 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD CIG AND VIZ EXCURSIONS TO IFR ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA MOVES TO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z
SUNDAY AFTERNOON PAINTING WIDE SWATH OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND
SNOW. MT OBSCURATION WIDESPREAD UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST FROM 21Z ONWARD SUN AFTERNOON...WITH LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS REMAINING AT 06Z AND CONTINUING BEYOND. TAFS
WRITTEN WITH SCT CLOUD GROUP AT LOWEST EXPECTED CEILING...WITH
VCSH WRITTEN BEYOND THE FIRST 6 HOURS TO SIGNAL CONTINUED SHOWER
PROXIMITY WITH POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR EXCURSIONS BOTTOMING IN
ASSOCIATED SCT LEVEL.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1022 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL AS WEATHER TYPES IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH THIS
EVENING. ADDED CURRY COUNTY TO THE WINTER WX ADVY...BUT MODELS
NOT HANDLING TEMPS VERY WELL...AND STILL ON THE FENCE ABOUT
POTENTIAL FOR ADDING ROOSEVELT COUNTY AS WELL AS EASTERN SAN MIGUEL
AND POSSIBLY GUADALUPE TO A WINTER WX ADVY. UPDATED ZFP AND WSW
ALREADY OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...450 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014...
.UPDATE...
ALLOWING WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE SOME ROGUE GUSTS DUE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. ZFP UPDATE WAS TO
STRIP HEADLINE...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW DOWN TO NEAR 6000 FEET TONIGHT BEFORE MIXING WITH RAIN
AGAIN SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. STRONG WINDS OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. A
POTENT COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY...
LEAVING BEHIND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH AS A COUPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE STATE. PERIODIC BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT THE PLAINS AND PATCHY CLOUD COVER WITH EVEN A FEW SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT THE HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A WELCOME SITE IT IS AS A DEEP FETCH OF RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN
SNOW IMPACTS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL
SHOWS THE CORE OF A WELL-DEFINED STORM SYSTEM CRASHING ONSHORE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A MASSIVE FETCH OF MOIST SW FLOW SHIFTING
INTO AZ AND NM. CIRA TOTAL PWAT VALUES ARE ABOVE 200PCT OF NORMAL IN
THIS PLUME AND IT WILL SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER NM THRU THIS EVENING. SFC
AND MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE TRENDING DOWN WITH THE AID OF EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING AND SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. SNOW REPORTS SO FAR RANGE
FROM ABOUT 1 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 7500 FT. THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTION
AGREES THE CURRENT PLUME WILL SHIFT SE OVER CENTRAL NM THRU THIS
EVENING THEN INTO SOUTHERN NM LATE TONIGHT.
A SECONDARY VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER COLD CORE WILL SHIFT
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...DELIVERING A SECONDARY
PEAK IN PRECIP COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THIS SECONDARY PRECIP
MAX. HOWEVER...BASED ON TREND OF LATEST HRRR AFTER 06Z CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WILL VERIFY THIS MAX ALONG
THE I-40/CONT DVD CORRIDOR INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN MTS LATE TONIGHT.
THE NE PLAINS WILL BE A TRICKY AREA AS WELL WITH SOME INCREDIBLE
SPATIAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ON THE LATEST 21Z OBS. THE FRONT HAS
PUSHED THROUGH TRINIDAD WHERE THE TEMP IS 21F WHILE RATON IS WINDY
WITH A TEMP OF 61F! MODELS ARE TRENDING THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY SO EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF ADVISORY SOUTH AND WEST. FOR THIS UPDATE
WILL EXPAND ADVISORY INTO RATON RIDGE ZONE. MODEL PROFILES OVER
THE NE SUGGEST A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW THRU AT
LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MID LEVEL COLDER AIR SLIDES OVER
AND CHANGES ALL ACTIVITY TO SNOW.
BEYOND SUNDAY...THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN WEST TO NW
FLOW THAT WILL SLIDE QUICKLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WHILE WINDS ARE PERIODICALLY BREEZY OUT
EAST. A FEW PERIODS OF THICK CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST PACIFIC TROUGH TO GRADUALLY CROSS THIS WEEKEND WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS HAVE
ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF BEGINNING A DOWNWARD TREND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT. A BAND OF MAINLY WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION OF NW NM...BRINGING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THAT AREA. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION LEVEL MAY ONLY DROP TO ABOUT 7000 FEET TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL REALLY BENEFIT FROM THE DWELL
TIME OF ALL THIS MOISTURE WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED IN ALL NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH NEARLY 20
INCHES.
A SECONDARY LOCATION FAVORED FOR ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND QUAY COUNTY...WHERE A POTENT BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIFT AS THE MOIST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH SLEET AND EVEN SOME
FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST
AREAS WILL FALL 35 TO 40 DEGREES SUNDAY FROM TODAYS READINGS LEAVING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S.
STRONG WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REBOUND THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A
NOTABLE EXCEPTION BEING SOME COOLER READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING
VERY WELL ON A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THIS WINTER...THE ECMWF IS DEEPER/WETTER/SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IS
SHALLOWER/DRIER/FASTER. GRIDS ARE ALIGNED WITH THE GFS SOLUTION FOR
NOW.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY QUICKLY TRANSITION TO GUSTY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BE OUR NEXT DAY WITH WIND AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FORECAST GRIDS CURRENTLY SHOW THE TYPICAL PATCH OF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AROUND CLINES CORNERS
AND SANTA ROSA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK FROM 3 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY.
VENTILATION-WISE...WATCH FOR POOR READINGS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW...SUNDAY.
ALSO...IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM...AREAS OF POOR
VENTILATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE
NORTHWESTWARD TO GALLUP AND FARMINGTON. FURTHER...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH COOL AND SETTLED AIR
FOR AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WEDNESDAY.
44
&&
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ503>507-516-527-528-530-531-534-535.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ502-508-510>515-521-526.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1022 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL AS WEATHER TYPES IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH THIS
EVENING. ADDED CURRY COUNTY TO THE WINTER WX ADVY...BUT MODELS
NOT HANDLING TEMPS VERY WELL...AND STILL ON THE FENCE ABOUT
POTENTIAL FOR ADDING ROOSEVELT COUNTY AS WELL AS EASTERN SAN MIGUEL
AND POSSIBLY GUADALUPE TO A WINTER WX ADVY. UPDATED ZFP AND WSW
ALREADY OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...450 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014...
.UPDATE...
ALLOWING WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE SOME ROGUE GUSTS DUE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. ZFP UPDATE WAS TO
STRIP HEADLINE...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...447 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WIDESPREAD EXCURSIONS TO IFR AND LIFR CIGS
AND VIZ AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH WITH MT OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING THROUGH 21Z FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH LOW CIGS AND VIZ
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS CONTINUING AFTER 00Z.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW DOWN TO NEAR 6000 FEET TONIGHT BEFORE MIXING WITH RAIN
AGAIN SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. STRONG WINDS OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. A
POTENT COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY...
LEAVING BEHIND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH AS A COUPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE STATE. PERIODIC BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT THE PLAINS AND PATCHY CLOUD COVER WITH EVEN A FEW SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT THE HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A WELCOME SITE IT IS AS A DEEP FETCH OF RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN
SNOW IMPACTS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL
SHOWS THE CORE OF A WELL-DEFINED STORM SYSTEM CRASHING ONSHORE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A MASSIVE FETCH OF MOIST SW FLOW SHIFTING
INTO AZ AND NM. CIRA TOTAL PWAT VALUES ARE ABOVE 200PCT OF NORMAL IN
THIS PLUME AND IT WILL SHIFT DIRECTLY OVER NM THRU THIS EVENING. SFC
AND MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE TRENDING DOWN WITH THE AID OF EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING AND SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. SNOW REPORTS SO FAR RANGE
FROM ABOUT 1 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 7500 FT. THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTION
AGREES THE CURRENT PLUME WILL SHIFT SE OVER CENTRAL NM THRU THIS
EVENING THEN INTO SOUTHERN NM LATE TONIGHT.
A SECONDARY VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER COLD CORE WILL SHIFT
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...DELIVERING A SECONDARY
PEAK IN PRECIP COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THIS SECONDARY PRECIP
MAX. HOWEVER...BASED ON TREND OF LATEST HRRR AFTER 06Z CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WILL VERIFY THIS MAX ALONG
THE I-40/CONT DVD CORRIDOR INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN MTS LATE TONIGHT.
THE NE PLAINS WILL BE A TRICKY AREA AS WELL WITH SOME INCREDIBLE
SPATIAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ON THE LATEST 21Z OBS. THE FRONT HAS
PUSHED THROUGH TRINIDAD WHERE THE TEMP IS 21F WHILE RATON IS WINDY
WITH A TEMP OF 61F! MODELS ARE TRENDING THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEST BY EARLY SUNDAY SO EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF ADVISORY SOUTH AND WEST. FOR THIS UPDATE
WILL EXPAND ADVISORY INTO RATON RIDGE ZONE. MODEL PROFILES OVER
THE NE SUGGEST A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW THRU AT
LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MID LEVEL COLDER AIR SLIDES OVER
AND CHANGES ALL ACTIVITY TO SNOW.
BEYOND SUNDAY...THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN WEST TO NW
FLOW THAT WILL SLIDE QUICKLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WHILE WINDS ARE PERIODICALLY BREEZY OUT
EAST. A FEW PERIODS OF THICK CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST PACIFIC TROUGH TO GRADUALLY CROSS THIS WEEKEND WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS HAVE
ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF BEGINNING A DOWNWARD TREND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT. A BAND OF MAINLY WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION OF NW NM...BRINGING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THAT AREA. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION LEVEL MAY ONLY DROP TO ABOUT 7000 FEET TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL REALLY BENEFIT FROM THE DWELL
TIME OF ALL THIS MOISTURE WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED IN ALL NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD GET THE MOST SNOW WITH NEARLY 20
INCHES.
A SECONDARY LOCATION FAVORED FOR ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND QUAY COUNTY...WHERE A POTENT BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIFT AS THE MOIST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH SLEET AND EVEN SOME
FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST
AREAS WILL FALL 35 TO 40 DEGREES SUNDAY FROM TODAYS READINGS LEAVING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S.
STRONG WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REBOUND THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A
NOTABLE EXCEPTION BEING SOME COOLER READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING
VERY WELL ON A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THIS WINTER...THE ECMWF IS DEEPER/WETTER/SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IS
SHALLOWER/DRIER/FASTER. GRIDS ARE ALIGNED WITH THE GFS SOLUTION FOR
NOW.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY QUICKLY TRANSITION TO GUSTY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BE OUR NEXT DAY WITH WIND AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FORECAST GRIDS CURRENTLY SHOW THE TYPICAL PATCH OF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AROUND CLINES CORNERS
AND SANTA ROSA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK FROM 3 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY.
VENTILATION-WISE...WATCH FOR POOR READINGS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW...SUNDAY.
ALSO...IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM...AREAS OF POOR
VENTILATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE
NORTHWESTWARD TO GALLUP AND FARMINGTON. FURTHER...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH COOL AND SETTLED AIR
FOR AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WEDNESDAY.
44
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ503>507-516-527-528-530-531-534-535.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ502-508-510>515-521-526.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
336 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD TEMPERATURES. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS DROPPING
BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...PICTURE BIG WATER VAPOR SHOWS RIBBON OF
ENHANCED MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE DRAPED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS THIS MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND
S/W ENERGY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS MID LVL MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD PVA ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WL CONT TO
IMPACT OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
DEPARTING OUR CWA BY 15Z. THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED TIGHT
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THERMAL GRADIENT WITH LLVL CAA WL MAKE FOR
A DIFFICULT TEMP FCST TODAY. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -20C
NEAR MSS AT 15Z TODAY TO -9C AT VSF...INDICATING THE SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT ACRS OUR REGION. WL MENTION HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS/LOWER TEENS DACKS/SLV TO UPPER 20S LWR CT RIVER VALLEY WITH
VALUES IN THE L20S ACRS THE CPV...BUT FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS
WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. ALSO...WL CONT TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA TIMING...WHICH WL BE BTWN 12Z-15Z FOR
OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. LATEST RAP CONTS TO SHOW
GOOD 850 TO 500MB RH...ALONG WITH SOME FAVORABLE 850 TO 700MB FGEN
LIFT AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT QPF/PROGGED COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY
RETURNS. STILL ANTICIPATING SOME VIRGA WITH INITIAL BAND OF
PRECIP...AS LARGE SPREAD CONTS BTWN SFC TEMP AND DWPTS. SNOWFALL
WL RANGE BTWN DUSTING AND 2 INCHES THRU 15Z....BEFORE DRYING AIR
AND SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THRU TUESDAY WL BE THE MUCH BLW
NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED...AND JUST HOW COLD WE GET. STILL
NOTICING A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE BTWN THE COLDER MAV
AND WARMER MET NUMBERS...WITH THE ECE MOS SHOWING A NICE
COMPROMISE. WL USE A BLEND FOR TEMPS...WITH A TREND TWD THE
ECE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. FOR TONIGHT...SFC
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND WEAK LOW PRES TO OUR EAST WL RESULT IN BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS ACRS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN COLD WIND CHILL AND
KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED. THIS MIXING WL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT WITH LOWS EXPECTED BTWN -5F AND -10F
SLV/DACKS/NEK TO -5F TO +5F CPV/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. THESE
EXPECTED TEMPS COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNTS WL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -10F AND -20F ACRS THE DACKS...VERY
SIMILAR TO A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO. GIVEN MARGINALLY REACHING WIND
CHILL CRITERIA AND RECENT COLD WX...WL NOT BE ISSUING HIGHLIGHT
WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT WL MENTION IN HWO. ALSO...AS TEMPS DROP BLW
-5F IN THE COLDER VALLEYS...WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS AND
BECOME MORE TRRN DRIVEN. FOR MONDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLW CONTS
WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ONLY BTWN -18C AND -22C...WHICH ARE 2 TO
3 STD BLW NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY WL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS
MTNS/SLK/NEK TO LOWER TEENS CENTRAL VT/MPV TO MID TEENS CPV/LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS FROM LLVL INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HRS. SFC RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROP
WITH LOWS AROUND -20F EXPECTED ACRS THE DACKS/NEK TO -15F CENTRAL
VT VALLEYS/NASHVILLE TO -10F SLV TO 0 TO -5F CPV/UHI AREAS. WL
TREND TWD THE WARMER MET/ECE SOLUTIONS...GIVEN RECENT BETTER
PERFORMANCE WITH TEMPS AND SLIGHT WARMING IN LVLL THERMAL
PROFILES.
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SOUTH OF REGION AS MID LVL MOISTURE
AND 5H VORT IN THE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT APPROACH OUR CWA.
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY LLVLS WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT
HAVE NOTICED BOTH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF ACRS
OUR REGION. WL MENTION SOME VERY LOW CHC POPS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LVL MOISTURE AND 5H VORT...BUT THINKING BETTER CHCS ARRIVE WITH NEXT
SFC BOUNDARY ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...SOME WL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
MTNS TO NEAR 20F WARMER VALLEYS. STILL 10 TO 20 DEGREES BLW NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...WE CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH NEW BRUNSWICK UPPER LOW ROTATING WEAK REPLENISHMENT OF
COLD AIR FOR LATE WED/WED NGT. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THIS AS IT MOVES THRU...PRETTY MUCH COLDER THAN
NORMAL/DRY PATTERN PERSISTING.
SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING MID/LATE WEEK ACRS CONUS WITH OUR FA MAINLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM. WITH ZONAL FLOW AND MODERATING
TMPS FOR LATE WEEK INTO ERLY WEEKEND WITH NRN STREAM DELIVERING WEAK
COLD FRONT SAT NGT/SUN TIMEFRAME WITH SOME SHSN.
MEANWHILE... A SRN STREAM LOW DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO TRAVEL OFF SE
CONUS/MID ATLANTIC THU NGT/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT 6 HOURS...ENTERING CHAMPL VLY ARD 06Z AND REACHING LWR CT RVR
VLY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SHSN MAINLY ALG/BEHIND FRONT WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS. BACK EDGE ALREADY ENTERING ST LWRNC VLY
AT 06Z AND SHLD BE ACRS CHMPL VLY BY 12Z AND CT RVR VLY 15-17Z.
MAIN IDEA FOR SUNDAY IS FOR SHSN TO LET UP AT MOST OF THE TAFS
THRU SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH LIKELY TO PERSIST LONGER UNDER
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AT SLK AND MPV AS WELL AS AT RUT. I DO THINK
THAT CEILINGS ALSO GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TOWARD VFR AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...WITH EXCEPTIONS BEING MPV AND
SLK. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 10 KTS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LOCONTO/SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1137 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ARCTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OK INTO FAR NW
ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH TERRAIN OVER
NE OK AND SE OK SLOWING THE PROGRESS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY
QUICK TRANSITION FROM FZRA TO SLEET ACROSS NE OK...MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF FZRA LIKELY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY IN FSM
AREA SUNDAY. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST...WITH PRECIP ALL SLEET AND SOME SNOW BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BENEATH INTENSE WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE SHALLOW COLD
DOME. SLICKS SPOTS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS A RESULT.
LATEST DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF LIGHT
PRECIP AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES ATOP ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
ADDITIONALLY...A ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE LIKELY WITH TIME. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE
IN THE HRRR SOLUTIONS THE UPDATE WILL INCLUDE A ZONE OF HIGHER
THUNDER CHANCES...WHICH WILL ALSO CORRESPOND TO LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIP AMOUNTS. PRECIP TYPE FORECASTS WERE LEFT LARGELY IN PLACE
AS WE AWAIT ADDITIONAL DATA...HOWEVER THE TREND SEEMS TO BE TOWARD
A COLDER BOUNDARY TEMP WHICH WOULD FAVOR A QUICKER TRANSITION
TOWARD SLEET. THIS WILL BE FURTHER REVIEWED AS DATA BECOME
AVAILABLE. THE UPDATE ALSO ADJUSTED FOR THE OBSERVED TEMP TRENDS
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE POST FRONTAL COOLING. DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NE OK LATE TONIGHT...AND MOST
LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...ICE STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ053-OKZ076.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ065-
OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-
OKZ074-OKZ075.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ020-
ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1214 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A MOIST COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST TUESDAY
WITH A SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
0515 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...ACCOUNTING FOR LOW CLOUDS CROSSING THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE UPDATED USING A 3 TO 1 BLEND OF THE NAM AND
ADJMAV...LEANING ON THE FORMER TO CAPTURE GREATER WINDS AND GUSTS IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS.
AS OF 1040 PM...0Z NAM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED THE FIELD OF LOW
SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE MODELS AGREES WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
ADJUST HOURLY TEMP...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS.
AS OF 7 PM...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDLANDS LATE TONIGHT...EXPANDING NW ACROSS
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WAS EXTREMELY DRY AND THE UPPER LAYER OF SOIL IS DRY.
AT 6PM...THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OBS HAD DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AROUND 20
DEGREES. CONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...AS
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE. I DO EXPECT SOME FOG...I WILL INDICATE
6-5SM FOG WITH SCT010 BETWEEN 10-13Z. FOR THE UPDATE...I WILL ADJUST
FOG PLACEMENT AND TIMING AND WILL ADJUST HOURLY TEMP/DWPT.
AS OF 230 PM...THERE WILL BE A FLAT UPR RIDGE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THRU THE NEAR TERM...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF BEGINS TO
ENTER THE SRN PLAINS. SFC HIGH PRES WILL LINGER JUST OFF THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SWLY LLVL RETURN FLOW ATOP
THE CWFA TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY. FCST SNDGS INDICATE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH INCREASING BL MOISTURE WITHIN THE SW FLOW. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HINTS AT SOME FOG OR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY ACRS THE PIEDMONT. MOST OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE RAP HINTING AS
WELL. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...HIGHLIGHTING THE
AREA WHERE THE NAM AS NEAR ZERO SFC CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON DENSE FOG IS STILL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE KEPT
ABOVE NORMAL WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT SAGGING SEWD
ACRS THE OH VLY...BUT PRECIP HOLDING OFF TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE SFC
BNDRY. SO WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTN...BUT OTHERWISE IT SHUD BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH
HIGHS ABOUT 8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SAT...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES SWIFTLY EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. THE WAVE WILL INTERACT
WITH A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ALONG THE OH AND MID MS RIVER
VALLEYS AND GENERATE SFC WAVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL
ZONE AND THE COLD SIDE...KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY SLOWLY BUILDING POPS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
GET SHUTTLED EWD. FORCING FEATURES COME TOGETHER BEST ACROSS THE
AREA MON MORNING IN THE FORM OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
DIVERGENCE...PASSING DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS THE SFC WAVE SWEEPS IN ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND POSSIBLY WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING
THROUGH LATE DAY NW OF THE SFC WAVE AFTER THE BOUNDARY SLIPS THROUGH
THE AREA. THIS WILL WARRANT LIKELY TO CAT POPS THROUGHOUT MON
MORNING.
EVEN WITH THE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT...MUCAPES WILL BE LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO 100 J/KG OR LESS...WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES 5.5 TO
6 DEG C/KM...AND WITH WESTERLY SHEAR PROFILES. THIS WILL GREATLY
LIMIT THE TSTM POTENTIAL AND ONLY SHOWERS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE
WARM SECTOR. COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY SURGE INTO THE NRN TIER MON
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE W AND A BACKDOOR
FRONT WRAPS DOWN FROM THE N. THE RACE WILL THEN BE ON BETWEEN THE
MOISTURE EXITING SE AND COLDER PROFILES ARRIVING FROM THE N TO
SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX. STILL FEEL THAT ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP
WOULD BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORED IN THIS SETUP. IN ADDITION...
PROFILES APPEAR TO DRY OUT FROM THE TOP DOWN IN THE COLDER NRN
TIER...LIKELY ENDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE NUCLEATION AND ANY
ACCUMULATING FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION. BRIEF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD STILL OCCUR OVER THE NW NC
PIEDMONT LATE MON...WITH BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MTNS NEAR THE NC BORDER INTO EARLY EVENING.
NO HAZARD HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
H5 FLOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME ZONAL THROUGH TUE...WITH 1032 MB HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER TO THE N FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS...MAY CAP TUE MAX
TEMPS AT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...TRICKY MEDIUM RANGE FCST CONTINUES AS
GENERAL OVERALL AGREEMENT EXISTS...BUT SIGNIFICANT DETAIL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN AS WELL. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT SHOWING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING TO THE WRN GULF COAST BY WED NITE THEN
CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW ON THU. THIS LOW THEN MOVES EAST ALONG THE
GULF COAST THU NITE AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRI AND SAT. THE
CANADIAN MODEL IS COMING AROUND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH SOME MINOR
PLACEMENT AND TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH A
MUCH FASTER AND OPEN WAVE. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN AS CONSISTENT WITH
THE STRENGTH...POSITION OR TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN IS DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NOT AS DEEP OR SLOW
AS THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN. WPC IS TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEPER AND
SLOWER SCENARIO...SO HAVE GONE THIS DIRECTION AS WELL.
WED WILL BE A COOL DRY DAY WITH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN A CLASSICAL
CAD PATTERN. THE GULF LOW SPINS UP ON THU AND MOVES EAST SPREADING
MOISTURE AND PRECIP INTO THE AREA OVER THE DEVELOPING CAD. THE GFS
WITH ITS WEAKER AND FASTER LOW...KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-85. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
WETTER. THEREFORE...SPREAD CHC POP IN ACROSS THE SRN CWFA WED NITE
AND THE ENTIRE CWFA THU. PARTIAL THICKNESSES...H85 TEMPS...AND SFC
TEMPS SUGGEST SNOW AND SLEET WOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85
AS THE PRECIP MOVES IN WED NITE...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN SOUTH. AS
TEMPS WARM THRU THE DAY THU...PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN IN ALL BUT THE
DEEPEST PART OF THE CAD DOME...NEAR AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE
LOW MOVES UP THE SERN COAST THU NITE AND FRI...PRECIP REMAINS ACROSS
THE CWFA. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND TEMPS REMAIN COOL OVER THE MTNS
WITH SFC TEMPS FALLING ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR TOWARD DAYBREAK. A
STRONG WARM NOSE DEVELOPS WITH CONTINUING WWA. THIS CHANGES ANY
WINTRY PRECIP IN THOSE COLDER AREAS TO FREEZING RAIN. PRECIP TAPERS
OFF ACROSS THE WRN CWFA FRI AFTERNOON AND ALL AREAS FRI EVENING AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TAKING MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH
IT. PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FRI AS THE WWA CONTINUES AND
REMAINS RAIN UNTIL ENDING. RIGHT NOW...THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE THICKNESS AND TEMP PATTERN...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A
LITTLE BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT A PRECIP EVENT WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW
AND SFC GULF LOW WILL DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE FOR SNOW/SLEET
LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OVER
THE NRN MTNS. ALSO HAVE TRACE ICE ACCRETION NORTH OF I-85 AND LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER THE MTNS...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
NRN MTNS. AGAIN...THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN...SO STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FOG POTENTIAL...BUT DEW
POINT DEPRESSION ARE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT...INCLUDING
THE KCLT AREA...AND MVFR VSBY WILL BE CARRIED THERE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
LOW VFR CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK....BUT NOT SUFFICIENTLY
FOR A CIG UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. A LIGHT S WIND WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING AFTER DAWN AND BECOMING GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...VFR AT FOOTHILLS SITES...BUT KAVL MAY SEE SOME MVFR FOG
AROUND DAYBREAK...AS THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION THERE IS ONLY 7
DEGREES AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SSW WINDS SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT...
PERHAPS GOING CALM AT SOME LOCATIONS. LOW VFR CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
TOWARD DAWN AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AND APPROACHING SYSTEM...
BUT LOW VFR CIGS SHOULD WAIT UNTIL AFTERNOON AT KAVL...AND AFTER
SUNSET AT FOOTHILL SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...A FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1139 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.AVIATION...
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO. MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE AT BOTH TERMINALS FIRST 6 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
WE COULD SEE SOME BREAKS AT KLBB. LIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG
ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KCDS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF FREEZING PRECIP
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND
DURATION IS UNCERTAIN. HAVE ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE MOST
LIKELY PERIOD. LOWERED CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT KCDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY IMPROVE AT KLBB.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014/
UPDATE...
AN IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT IS SLICING THROUGH THE CWFA LATE SAT
EVENING. FOR EXAMPLE...TEMPS AT FRIONA WENT FROM MID 60S AT 7 PM TO
MID 20S AT 9 PM. FAIRLY GUSTY NERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WERE
ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA. WE/VE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS FASTER AND COLDER TREND.
UA ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE LIFT OVERSPREADING OUR NW ZONES WITHIN
SWIFT SW FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS SRN
CALI/AZ. DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...WE/VE SEEN SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY TRY TO DEVELOP BENEATH THIS AREA OF ASCENT AND ALSO
WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE...BUT SO FAR SOME LINGERING DRY AIR HAS
PREVENTED PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SFC.
SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE/EXPAND AFTER 06 UTC GIVEN STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME. WE HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE NW ZONES IN THE 06-12
UTC TIME FRAME. SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH COLDER NEAR-SURFACE
TEMPS BUT STILL A PRONOUNCED WARM-NOSE AROUND 800-700MB...WE NOW EXPECT
PRECIP-TYPE TO FAVOR FRZG RAIN ACROSS THIS REGION EVEN DURING THE
EARLY STAGES. ICE MAY START ACCUMULATING...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES EARLIER...SO WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE START TIME OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO MIDNIGHT/06 UTC...ALTHOUGH FOR THE
FIRST 6 HOURS WE THINK MOST OF THE IMPACT WILL BE FELT ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. AS THE PRECIP AREA SHIFTS
E-NEWD SUNDAY MORNING...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COUNTIES
FARTHER EAST.
GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT MID-LATE
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX/NM STATE LINE AS THE CORE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR. THIS BAND OF PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH AND SWEEP ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE
CWFA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND
PERHAPS SOME SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014/
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS ON THE DOOR OF KLBB AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AROUND
01 UTC WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE E-NE. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHED FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN THE
PARTICULARS OF AVIATION FORECAST IS LOW. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
LIKELY TO PERSIST AT KCDS MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAIN IF
THEY WILL DEVELOP INTO KLBB. ALSO...SHOWERS OF LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...POSSIBLY IMPACTING
EITHER OR BOTH TERMINALS IN THE ROUGHLY 08 UTC TO 18 UTC TIME
FRAME. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST AT KLBB...BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...
HARSH CHANGES AWAIT THE SOUTH PLAINS FOLLOWING OUR LATE SPRING-LIKE
WARMTH OF TODAY. ONE NEED ONLY LOOK AT THE 21Z STATE TEMPS THAT
RANGED FROM 91 IN BRADY TO JUST THE LOWER 20S IN PERRYTON...NOT FAR
FROM SNOW ALREADY OBSERVED IN THE OK PANHANDLE! STATIONARY FRONT AT
21Z STRETCHED FROM HAPPY SOUTHEAST TO FLOYDADA AND JAYTON. 88D
ALREADY SHOWS THIS FRONT EDGING SOUTHWESTWARD AND THIS TREND WILL
ONLY ACCELERATE IN THE COMING HOURS AS AN AXIS OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. RUC HAS BEEN QUITE SOLID
TODAY WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND INDICATES COLD FROPA AT LUBBOCK NEAR
SUNSET. TEMPORARY DILUTION OF STRATUS NEAR CHILDRESS SHOULD RESUME
IN THE COMING HOURS AND GRADUALLY EXPAND SWWD TONIGHT.
BRUNT OF THE FORECAST CHALLENGE DOES NOT CONCERN THE FRONT...BUT
RATHER AN AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS
SRN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A DECAYING UPPER LOW IN SRN
CALIFORNIA. LATEST MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS MOISTURE RATHER
WELL...BUT CONSIDERING THE PARENT LOW WILL BE DISSOLVING INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT...THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH
OF THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE CAN TRANSLATE INTO PRECIP FOR OUR AREA? WE
ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE SETUP...BUT DO
ACKNOWLEDGE A WINDOW FROM 12Z TO 18Z WHEN BOTH LIFT AND DEEPENING
SATURATION LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHT PRECIP. AS THE MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX TRACKS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NWRN COUNTIES BY SUN AFTN...LIFT
SHOULD BE BOLSTERED AS IT ENCOUNTERS ELEVATED FN FORCING TRAILING
OUR SURFACE FRONT. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX...OUR SERN
COUNTIES LOOK TO MISS OUT ON THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES...SO POPS HAVE
BEEN REDUCED HERE WHILE BUMPING UP TO LIKELY MENTION N-NW OF LUBBOCK.
PRECIP PHASE IS THE NEXT CHALLENGE...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS A WHOLE
INSIST ON KEEPING SOME DEGREE OF A WARM NOSE PRESENT ALOFT WHICH
WILL ACT TO SUSTAIN A WINTRY MIX LONGER THAN WE/D CARE TO SEE. WE
DID SIDE A BIT COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE AIRMASS INVOLVED...SO
THIS RESULTS IN A BROADER COVERAGE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
AND SLEET. ALL SNOW MAY BE HARD TO COME BY SO LONG AS WE RETAIN SOME
MELTING ALOFT. ALSO...THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE
SMALL AS THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY DEEPEN WITH TIME AND TIP THE SCALES
IN FAVOR OF SLEET. GROUND TEMPS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
ICING...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMS OF SLEET AND A THIN
GLAZE OF ICE ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED IN OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES WHERE WE HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY.
CLIMATOLOGY ALSO TENDS TO FAVOR THESE AREAS FOR WINTRY PRECIP IN
THESE SITUATIONS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST
THE ADVISORY IF NEEDED. LASTLY...WE CONTINUED TO SCALE BACK MAX
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY IN LIGHT OF ABUNDANT STRATUS AND DEEPENING COLD
AIR ADVECTION.
LONG TERM...
AFTER A QUICK ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER SUNDAY...THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY BENIGN...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TWO SEPARATE STORM
SYSTEMS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
BEGINNING TOMORROW EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED...HOWEVER THE COLD AIR WILL
UNFORTUNATELY LINGER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WHILE
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT AT RECOVERY ACROSS
AT LEAST THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON... TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
REGION...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST...TO THE LOW 30S IN THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
SUBDUED...GRADUAL MODERATION WILL BEGIN TUESDAY UNDER A REGIME OF
WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS...WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF STUBBORN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. FROM
HERE...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ITS RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE STATUS QUO...MORE OR LESS...BY
SENDING A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE OPEN SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN WOULD LIKELY YIELD LITTLE MORE THAN
DRY...MILD COLD FRONTS ACROSS WEST TEXAS...AND AS OF NOW IS THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION GOING FORWARD. ON THE OTHER HAND... THE ECMWF
IS MUCH DEEPER AND SLOWER IN ITS DEPICTION OF UPPER WAVES ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. LIKEWISE...THIS
DEPICTION WOULD RESULT IN MUCH GREATER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IF IT WERE TO PAN OUT. FOR NOW THOUGH...THIS FORECAST WILL OPT TO
SIDE WITH THE DRIER GFS UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS IS REACHED AMONG
OPERATIONAL MODELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 22 33 16 48 26 / 40 60 0 0 0
TULIA 19 28 12 42 25 / 20 60 10 0 0
PLAINVIEW 20 30 12 43 25 / 10 60 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 29 34 18 45 26 / 10 60 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 26 31 15 43 25 / 10 50 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 37 46 19 48 27 / 10 40 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 32 36 18 46 26 / 10 40 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 18 25 9 33 22 / 10 40 10 0 0
SPUR 23 29 11 38 23 / 10 30 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 25 29 10 38 23 / 20 20 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>030.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1135 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING SUNDAY /09-16Z/. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN THE METROPLEX.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A DURANT OKLAHOMA /KDUA/ TO
DENTON /KDTO/ TO BRECKENRIDGE /KBKD/ LINE AS OF 05Z. THIS FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 06Z /THE
BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD/...AND THROUGH WACO AROUND 12Z.
THE VERY COLD AIR LAGS A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO FREEZING 15-16Z SUNDAY /9-10 AM CST/ IN THE
METROPLEX. AT THAT TIME...THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN.
THE FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND IF THIS HAPPENS...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL END UP BEING HEAVIER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. ALSO NOTE
THAT THE FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS ARE FOR THE GROUND...AND ICING ON
ELEVATED SURFACES WILL START AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH EARLY TO MID EVENING...SHUTTING
OFF 02-03Z.
WIND SPEEDS WITH THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS
BUT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30
KNOTS BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITHIN
A FEW HOURS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR
TOWARD 10Z AND SOME LIGHT FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5SM.
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO THE LOWER END MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON
BUT NOT RETURN TO VFR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT /PROBABLY
AROUND 09Z MONDAY/.
AT WACO...A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE
BACK IN 06-08Z AND QUICKLY LOWER TO IFR AROUND 09Z. THE ARCTIC
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND 12Z...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO FREEZING MID AFTERNOON /21Z/...THE RAIN WILL
BECOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MID
EVENING SUNDAY /03Z MONDAY/.
58
&&
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST IS STILL BEING UPDATED BUT HERE IS A QUICK DISCUSSION
REGARDING THE CHANGES THAT ARE BEING MADE TONIGHT...
AS ANTICIPATED...THE ARCTIC FRONT IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND HAS
ALREADY ENTERED OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
DRASTICALLY DROPPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WITH THE
TRUE ARCTIC AIR LAGGING A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE. AT 9
PM...THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM CLAYTON OKLAHOMA TO
SHERMAN TO BRECKENRIDGE TO SOUTH OF LUBBOCK. TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ARE NOW IN THE 50S BUT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ARE ALREADY IN THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE IN THE
UPPER 20S.
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT. BY 1 AM...THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR A CISCO TO DFW TO PARIS
LINE...REACHING KILLEEN...WACO AND CANTON AROUND 5 AM AND FINALLY
THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK DEPENDING ON
THE FRONTS LOCATION.
WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPES OR
CHANCES...BUT WITH THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...WILL ADD A
MENTION OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS....INCLUDING TEMPLE/KILLEEN. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
IMPACT BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THE NAM...TX TECH WRF...RAP...AND OUR LOCAL WRF ALL HAVE
REASONABLE PRECIPITATION TRENDS TOMORROW AND AM LEANING TOWARDS
THEIR SOLUTIONS. THEY HAVE PRECIP OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A LITTLE LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND AROUND MIDDAY. THEN THE
PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION...OCCURS
OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS IS WHEN WE
EXPECT THE HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
OCCUR AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THUNDERSLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN AS IS BUT HAVE UPGRADED
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...ALONG AND
EAST OF A BONHAM TO GREENVILLE LINE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE
COUNTIES COULD REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WARNING
WILL BE FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WARNING MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED WEST...POSSIBLY INTO THE DFW METROPLEX
AREA...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO EXPANDED
SOUTH ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE
NEW MODEL DATA TONIGHT BEFORE MAKING ANY MORE CHANGES TO THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING LOCATIONS/PRODUCTS.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014/
REGARDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS...WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE ADVISORY SOUTH TO A CISCO TO
CLIFTON TO ATHENS LINE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO
PLANO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS. POINTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO SEE IMPACTS FROM LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THESE IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ON ELEVATED SURFACES...IN PART DUE TO
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DETAILS
REGARDING THE FORECAST CONTINUE BELOW:
A 21Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BOUNDARY LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER WHERE MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES
IT WILL STALL OUT BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A
NOTABLE EXCEPTION SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA...WHERE TEMPERATURES
SPIKED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG AN 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE.
WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO 80S ON CONSECUTIVE
DAYS FOR MOST POINTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...SOIL
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM...AND THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
OUR FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TO OUR NORTH...21Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA RANGED FROM THE LOWER TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 20S.
COMPARING THESE TEMPERATURES TO THE MORNING NAM 21Z FORECAST FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATED THAT THE NAM WAS RUNNING 8 TO 10
DEGREES TOO WARM WITH AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT.
UNFORTUNATELY THE NAM IS THE COLDEST OF THE POPULAR OPERATIONAL
FORECAST MODELS...SO THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT SHORT TERM SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH IN THE FORECAST MODELS MOVING
FORWARD. THE RAP IS DOING THE BEST JOB RESOLVING 21Z
TEMPERATURES...BUT THAT IS LARGELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE RAP
INGESTS NEW DATA EACH HOUR. AT ANY RATE...CONTINUED TO RELY UPON
THE NAM HEAVILY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...JUST LIKE THE
MIDNIGHT CREW...BECAUSE THE NAM IS THE COLDEST AND FASTEST WITH
THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TWO BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA (THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER...THEN THE ARCTIC FRONT TO THE
NORTH) IT WAS DIFFICULT TO TRACK THE SOUTHERN PROGRESS OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF THE RED RIVER FRONT...AND PARTIALLY DUE TO
NORTHERLY WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER NORTH THROUGH KANSAS
MASKING THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRULY ARCTIC AIRMASS.
BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AT 21Z THE FRONT APPEARED TO
BE NEAR A LINE FROM CANADIAN TX TO WATONGA OK TO PONCA CITY OK.
TRACKING THIS FRONT WILL ALSO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A FASTER
OR SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD HAVE DRASTIC IMPACTS ON OUR
FORECAST AND IMPACTS.
TO THE FORECAST...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE RED
RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE DFW AREA
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 AM CST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS WACO
AROUND 7 AM...AND THEN ACROSS PALESTINE AND TEMPLE/KILLEEN AN HOUR
LATER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORT WORTH
CWA BEFORE NOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES. PARAMETERS ARE THERE INDICATIVE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN PLACE CURRENTLY
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR STORMS AND KEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OF
AROUND 50 KTS. TAKEN AT FACE VALUE THE INTERSECTION OF THIS
PARAMETER SPACE IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...PROBABLY
SUPERCELLS OR POSSIBLY MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS ASSUMING STRONG FORCING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR RELEASING THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENERGY INTO STORMS.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE
CAPPING INVERSION IN THE 850 TO 800 MB LAYER...WHICH IS QUITE
STOUT AT 300 TO 400 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR SURFACE
BASED AIR PARCELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE THAT STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
LIFT AND COOL A LARGE CHUNK OF THIS CAPPING INVERSION...HOWEVER
THE CAP APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENTLY IN PLACE UNTIL 2-3 HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT. THIS BEING THE CASE...THERE WOULD BE NEARLY A ZERO
CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED STORMS AND TORNADOES ACROSS THE CWA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING. DAMAGING WIND MAY BE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE ELEVATED
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ANY VERTICAL MOTIONS WITHIN THE FRONTAL
INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMPENED BY HIGH STABILITY. THAT
LEAVES A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL...WHICH CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. LEFT A MENTION OF
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA
FOR TOMORROW MORNING AS A RESULT IN OUR GRAPHICAL HAZARD IMAGES.
BEHIND THE FRONT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED POPS UP TO 80 PERCENT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SUNDAY MORNING AS CHANCES FOR ALL LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE
AT LEAST ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY HIGH
AT THIS TIME. MOST PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS AIR
PARCELS LIFTED FROM THE 900 TO 850 MB LAYER ARE CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST TO HAVE 3-500 J/KG OF POSITIVE CAPE. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNFORTUNATELY
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SPREADS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE CWA. THIS IS
UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THIS TIME WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES BUILDING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE DAY.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT...WE
SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO FREEZING RAIN...TO
FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET TO ALL SLEET THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING ICE
AND SLEET FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO
PLANO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS AS THESE LOCATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SPEND MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING. FROM THIS LINE
SOUTH TO A LINE FROM CISCO TO CLIFTON TO ATHENS (THIS INCLUDES THE
DFW METROPLEX)...EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS OF ICE AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION SIMPLY BECAUSE THE SUB-FREEZING AIR IS SLOWER TO
BUILD IN...AND THESE AREAS SAW TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOUT 10 DEGREES
HIGHER TODAY THAN LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN
SO WARM OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. JUST LOOKING AT MODEL OUTPUT AND
FORECAST WATER EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AND CONVERTING THAT
DIRECTLY INTO ICE IS A VERY POOR ESTIMATE OF ICE ACCUMULATION FOR
THIS EVENT BECAUSE SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE CWA. IT WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT OF TIME FOR SOIL
TEMPERATURES TO FALL...MEANING THAT A LARGE PORTION OF ANY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS...EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING...WILL NOT STICK TO THE GROUND. ESTIMATING HOW MUCH
RAINFALL WILL RUN OFF VERSUS HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE AS ICE IS
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. AT THIS TIME FORECAST ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS
ARE APPROXIMATELY 25 PERCENT OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO FALL AS WATER
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.
WHETHER THIS IS AGGRESSIVE OR CONSERVATIVE WILL DEPEND AT LEAST
PARTIALLY ON HOW FAST WE FALL BELOW FREEZING BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. FALLING BELOW FREEZING FASTER THAN EXPECTED WILL RESULT IN
GREATER IMPACTS ON AVERAGE. WE WILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND IF IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
GET COLDER SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER...WE MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE SOME
PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY INTO A WINTER STORM WARNING BEFORE SUNDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS ICE ACCUMULATION
AND IMPACTS MAINLY RELEGATED TO ELEVATED SURFACES...WHICH IS WHY A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AND NOT A WINTER STORM
WARNING AT THIS TIME. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONE TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH...MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
WITH MOST ATTENTION FOCUSED ON SUNDAYS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINTER
WEATHER...HERE IS A QUICK SUMMARY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST:
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL
NIGHT...MEANING ANY RESIDUAL WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE UP
CAUSING ADDITIONAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
MONDAY MORNING WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE ZERO TO MINUS 5 DEGREES
FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...ASSUMING THIS DOES NOT CHANGE IN FUTURE
FORECASTS...WE WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE VERY COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES.
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS OF THE DAY. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM CLOSELY IN CASE IMPACTS ARE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. CURRENTLY...ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.
WE WILL WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT HAVE LOW RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH YET ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE REGION. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AT
THIS TIME.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 36 35 16 36 24 / 60 80 20 0 10
WACO, TX 59 53 20 41 29 / 30 80 20 0 10
PARIS, TX 35 35 11 34 22 / 60 80 80 0 10
DENTON, TX 32 32 14 34 21 / 60 80 20 0 10
MCKINNEY, TX 33 34 13 34 19 / 60 80 30 0 10
DALLAS, TX 38 37 16 37 25 / 60 80 20 0 10
TERRELL, TX 44 42 15 36 23 / 50 80 50 0 10
CORSICANA, TX 59 57 18 38 26 / 30 80 30 0 10
TEMPLE, TX 66 58 21 42 30 / 20 80 20 0 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 32 32 14 36 23 / 60 80 10 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
TXZ115>123-129>135-144>146.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ094-
095-105>107.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ094-095-
105>107.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
TXZ091>093-100>104.
&&
$$
58/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1202 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING ALOFT...MID-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS OCCURRING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL FGEN IN THIS CONFLUENCE ZONE WITH HELP FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE NE/SD IS GENERATING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA TO WESTERN MICHIGAN. ACROSS THE CWA...THIS SNOW IS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 29 AND MAY SEE A HALF INCH OF ACCUM FROM
WAUTOMA TO MANITOWOC THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
SNOW BAND ARE COLD ADVECTING A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS OUT OF THE
1045MB ARCTIC HIGH. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN BELOW ZERO OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING THE END OF
THE SNOW...AND WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TONIGHT...BROAD MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHEAR AXIS AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW WITHIN THE FGEN OF THIS CONVERGENT ZONE WILL EXIT
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE IF THE
RETURNS OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST...BUT
WILL LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE
EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THE MESO-MODELS ARE PICKING UP A MID-LAKE
SNOW BAND OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THAT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING AND
DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONE OF THE MESO MODELS INDICATES
THAT SOME OF THIS MID-LAKE SNOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES. GENERALLY DO NOT LIKE THIS IDEA...SINCE SYNOPTIC WINDS
WILL BE OFFSHORE AND ANY LAND BREEZE COMPONENT WILL WANT TO SHOVE
THE LAKE SNOW TO THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LAKE. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT KEEP ACCUMS
LIGHT.
THE OTHER PROBLEM AREA TONIGHT WILL BE WIND CHILLS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE SURFACE GRADIENT TO BE A LITTLE TOO TIGHT FOR
DECOUPLING THIS EVENING...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT SO
THINK SURFACE WINDS SHOULD TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPS FALLING
BELOW MINUS 20 SEEMS LIKELY...SO STUCK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS
MIN TEMPS. WITH CLOUDS OVERHEAD IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR DECOUPLING AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY NOT EXCITED TO
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WITH SO MANY QUESTION MARKS...ESPECIALLY
AFTER SO MANY LOW WIND CHILL EVENTS ALREADY. BUT WITH OFFICES TO
THE WEST ISSUING HEADLINES...WILL FOLLOW SUIT TO BLEND.
SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE SHORELINE OF MANITOWOC AND KEWAUNEE
COUNTIES WILL BE EXITING DURING THE MORNING AS DRY ARCTIC AIR FLOWS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EARLY IN THIS PERIOD WILL CONSOLIDATE MONDAY
WITH SOME MODERATION OF COLD EXPECTED AS MORE ZONAL PATTERN SETS
UP. THEREAFTER...SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FLOW TO
BRING PCPN TO AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. ISSUES WILL BE TIMING THESE
SYSTEMS. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED SO AMOUNTS WILL ON LIGHT
SIDE. BY THU...850MB TEMPS RISE INTO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...WITH SURFACE TEMPS APPROACHING 30? PATTERN BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN AS MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TROF OVER CENTER
OF U.S. COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST THIS COLDER TURN TO BE SHORT LIVED.
IN NEAR TERM....HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OUT OF NORTHERN PLAINS
AND LIGHT WINDS TO LEAD TO CONTINUING VERY COLD PERIOD THROUGH
MONDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMP FOR MARCH 3RD MAY BE IN JEOPARDY.
QUESTION ON NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY SUN NIGHT AS WINDS
EXPECTED TO DROP OFF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ESPECIALLY AFTER
6Z. WINDS ALOFT ONLY AROUND 10KTS THROUGH 850MB. WAA PATTERN...LFQ
OF JET MOVING THROUGH PLAINS TO LEAD TO NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE. STAYED WITH CHANCE POPS GIVEN MOISTURE
CONCERNS WITH EXITING DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT E-C WI
DURING THE REST OF THE NGT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-018-
019-021-030-035-036.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RETURN OF ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE
BITTERLY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED APPROACHING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM EST...SNOW PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
REGIONAL RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE.
EXPERIENTIAL HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS ARE ALSO DIMINISHING
WITH EXPECTED RADAR RETURNS. FOR THIS UPDATE WE HAVE LOWERED
SNOWFALL EXPECTATIONS ALONG WITH POPS. FURTHERMORE...ARCTIC
BOUNDARY JUST CLEARED MOST OF EASTERN NY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RE-TWEAKED ONCE AGAIN FOR A WARMER START FOR THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST.
AS OF 300 AM EST...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS REVEAL LIGHT SNOW WAS
UNDERWAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AND
NOW EVOLVING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREENS. THIS IS ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. A CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH A
TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL KEEP BANDS OF SNOW
RATHER LIGHT AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LIFT WILL BE RATHER LIGHT
AND NOT TAPPING INTO BETTER DENDRITES. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE UPSLOPE FAVORED TERRAIN
AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES /DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES/ LATER TODAY. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES WITH THE DOWNWARD
TREND IN QPF LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE ONGOING RELATIVELY HIGH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SEEN IN THE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING. AS THE
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY OCCURS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE OBTAINED THIS MORNING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE
BACK WELL DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE VALUES /RANGING FROM -6C ACROSS
OUR EXTREME SOUTH CWA TO -20C ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN CWA/.
TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLOW THE FORWARD
PROGRESS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR AS THE SURFACE FEATURES PARALLEL
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. FURTHERMORE...UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS UPSTATE
NY IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY >170KTS WITH ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
ENHANCING LIFT ACROSS PA/NJ. FGEN FORCING IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
A BIT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THAT COINCIDES WITH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH. SO THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 4 INCHES WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION SEEING COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. MESOSCALE MODELS AND BUFR PROFILES ACROSS KGFL SUGGEST
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH A NORTHERLY WIND DOWN THE
VALLEY AND ANY MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKE COULD BRING SOME LAKE
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES INTO THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE WILL RETAIN CHC-SCT POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS SURFACE TEMPS DROP BACK WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE DACKS H850 TEMPS
ARE PROGED TO BE AT OR BELOW -20C. WINDS MAY BE CLOSE FOR WIND
CHILL THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE DACKS BUT PER COLLABORATION...NO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH SO A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO BRING A MAINLY SUNNY
SKY. DESPITE THE EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 20F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OUR NORMAL HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR ARE WELL INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.
MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE QUITE COLD WITH INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH SNOW COVER TO RESULT IN BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT BUT LIKELY THE
TEMPS WILL HAVE ALREADY DROPPED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL BE FROM THE SYSTEM
MOVING IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AS WAS THE
CASE WITH OUR CURRENT SYSTEM...THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS QUITE
CONFLUENT SO ANY PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. WE WILL INCREASE INTO LOW CHANCE POPS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE 20S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE AS
THOSE H850 TEMPS REMAIN INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS A MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES IN THE FAST NORTHERN STREAM TOWARDS THE AREA. SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST...BUT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE RATHER LIMITED FROM
THIS SYSTEM. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH MINS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT RANGING FROM -10 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO +10 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. MAX TEMPS ON WED WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER...WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. MINS WED NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS /BELOW ZERO OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...AS THE WIND SWITCHES TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S IN MANY AREAS.
LATE IN THE WEEK...A DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW A
STORM TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 00Z GEFS...SEEM TO SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TO PREVENT ANY IMPACT
ON OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER...SINCE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBER DO SHOW SOME
PRECIP...AND SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A CLOSER
APPROACH...WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
POPS...ESP FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...A PASSING WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING
FROM THE RECENT ARCTIC COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS ON FRI/SAT IN THE 30S
/EVEN SOME LOW 40S FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS/ WITH MINS IN THE 20S
/SOME TEENS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ARCTIC FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND STRATUS CLOUDS ARE
ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE VERY LIGHT...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
VSBYS/CIGS AT KPSF FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT ALL SITES DUE TO LOW CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSING BOUNDARY. THESE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTN/EARLY
EVE AT KPOU/KPSF AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH AND SLOWS DOWN.
OTHERWISE...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LATER
TODAY...AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY BE LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT TONIGHT
FOR ALL TERMINALS AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION.
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AROUND 10 KTS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR
KALB. WINDS WILL BECOME N-NW BY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AT AROUND
5-10 KTS FOR ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH. THIS WILL
ALLOW ICE TO REFORM...THICKEN...AND STRENGTHEN ON AREA RIVERS AND
LAKES THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY...AND
AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...OVERNIGHT FOG HAS BURNED OFF LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE MORNING. LATEST RUC13 500MB PLOT WAS
SHOWING THAT THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE WAS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST
COAST TO EAST OF THE NJ/NY/CT AREA. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED
TROUGH JUST OFF THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS SENTENCE. THE INVERTED TROUGH HAS BEEN IN ESSENTIALLY
THE SAME AREA THE PAST TWO DAYS. THE TWO SMALL GRID LOCAL WRF MODELS
AND THE NAM12 HAVE BEEN DOING A DECENT JOB OF CATCHING THIS FEATURE
AND ARE DOING SO IN THE MOST RECENT RUNS.
THE MORNING ZONE/COASTAL UPDATES WILL BACK THE WINDS MORE TO THE
NORTH ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND COAST SEBASTIAN INLET NORTH
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS THEN VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST EARLY EVENING AS THE INVERTED TROUGHING FINALLY BREAKS/FLATTENS
DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS INTO THE ATLANTIC
AND THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DEEPENS. ALSO...THE AFTERNOON WINDS
AT THE COAST AND NORTHERN TWO/2 COASTAL WATER ZONES HAVE BEEN
STRONGER THAN THE GFS/MOS WINDS NORMALLY USED TO POPULATE THE UPDATE
GRIDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
TODAY-TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE DAY WILL BE MORNING FOG
DEVELOPMENT. DENSE FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST COMPONENT PUSHING IT INTO NORTHERN
LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER IT IS A LITTLE MORE WEST
THAN YESTERDAY MORNING...AND IT APPEARS THAT LAKE/SUMTER COUNTY WILL
GET THE DENSEST CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND
THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL
PROMOTE LOCAL FOG DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN THE LAKE/VOLUSIA AREA...WITH PERHAPS 1-3
MILES FOR ANY OTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT.
915 MHZ PROFILERS SHOW THAT THE FOG LAYER IS PRETTY SHALLOW AND WILL
LIKELY BURN OFF WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SLIDES DOWN THE COAST WITH
ITS AXIS ENDING UP OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BY THIS EVENING.
BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. NICE SPRING
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S...EXCEPTION
ONCE AGAIN WILL BE THE VOLUSIA COAST WHICH WILL GET INTO THE MID
70S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S...AROUND 60 ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE COAST.
MON-TUE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO SOUTH FL EARLY MON
MORNING...THEN ERODES AND SLIDES EAST IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH FL
(GFS) AND THE FAR NORTHERN CWA (ECM). THE LATTER MODEL ADVANCES
THE PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE BAND INTO THE CENTRAL CWA...AND IN
DEFERENCE TO THAT...HAVE KEPT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS OSCEOLA/BREVARD
COS. FRONT ESSENTIALLY BECOMES QSTNRY NEAR IT`S POSN SUNRISE TUE...
WITH WEAK SFC LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT TO THE EAST OF FL.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE FCST OF SLGT CHC FOR SOME LOW TOPPED SHRA IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WHICH BRIDGES THE FRONT THROUGH TUE EVENING.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON...AND NOW TUE AS WELL
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AS GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BOUNDARY
A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN WAS ADVERTISED H24 AGO.
WED-THU...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SLOWLY BUT SURELY CONVERGING ON A SOLN
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THEIR PREVIOUS SOLNS W/R/T STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THE GOMEX LOW. IT LOOKS AS IF THE ECM HAS TRENDED A BIT TOWARD
THE WEAKER GFS AT BOTH THE SFC AND H50...HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SHOW
A FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM STILL IMPACTING THE CWA. AS SFC LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE WRN-CTRL GOMEX...ONSHORE WINDS VEER FROM E-NE WED
MORNING TO SE OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN. SFC LOW DEEPENS
TO SUB-1010MB SOUTH OF SRN AL/MS/WRN FL PANHANDLE BY THU MORNING...
AND CONTINUES TO DO SO (~1004MB) AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE FL BIG
BAND BY SUNSET...THEN ACROSS THE STATE AND UP THE EASTERN U.S.
SEABOARD STARTING EARLY FRIDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...
COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS POINTS TO
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SQLN OF STRONG/SVR STORMS IN THE THU
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DECENT
CONSISTENCY/CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECM OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN USUAL IN SOME MAGNITUDE OF AN EVENT
IMPACT...EVEN THOUGH THIS IS A DAY 5 EVENT.
FRI-SAT...LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER IN THE
DAY AS THEY UPPER SYSTEM RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. COOLER AND
DRIER WX WILL FOLLOW WITH TEMPS RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOG/STRATUS BANK FROM NE FLORIDA RETURNS WITH PREVAILING
LIFR CIGS AND INITIAL VSBYS 1/4SM OR LESS NORTH OF A KDED-KZPH LINE.
EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE BEHIND INITIAL PUSH TO AROUND 1SM.
ELSEWHERE...PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP THROUGH 13Z WITH TEMPO
VSBYS 1-2SM. CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AFTER 13Z...THOUGH NORTHERNMOST
FOG AREAS MAY LINGER THROUGH 14Z. DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG EAST
COAST SEABREEZE FL040-050. FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER
08/06Z AWAY FROM THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OFF TO
THE EAST...WHICH HAS KEPT WINDS BACKED MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPE. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO COLLAPSE THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES DOWN THE COAST WITH RIDGE AXIS
ENDING UP OVER THE PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY 10-15KTS ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10KTS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 10-15KTS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT.
COMBINATION OF LINGERING SWELL AND WIND WAVE KEEPING SEAS AROUND 2-3
FT NEAR THE COAST AND 3-5 FT OVER OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
DOMINANT PERIODS LENGTHENING FROM 8SEC TO 9-10SEC LATE TONIGHT.
MON-THU...COOL FRONT SAGS TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH TUE AND EARLY WED...
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH LATER IN THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
GOMEX LOW. SOME MODERATE ONSHORE (NE-ENE) WINDS COULD LEAK INTO THE
VOLUSIA WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TO
SEE SEAS REMAIN IN THE 3-5FT RANGE THROUGH WED. INCREASING S-SWRLY
WINDS AND SEAS THU WITH POTENTIAL FOR BAND OF FAST-MOVING STRONG
TS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ATLC LATE THU-THU EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WARMER AND DRIER CONDS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH RH VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WELL INLAND AWAY FROM
INFLUENCES NEAR THE COAST. CRITICAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS NOT
FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 76 58 81 62 / 0 10 10 20
MCO 81 59 84 62 / 0 0 10 20
MLB 79 62 80 64 / 0 10 10 20
VRB 80 60 82 61 / 0 10 10 10
LEE 79 59 82 61 / 0 0 10 20
SFB 80 59 83 62 / 0 0 10 20
ORL 80 60 83 62 / 0 0 10 20
FPR 79 60 81 63 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1053 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
TODAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA...WHILE SNOW WILL BE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
RADAR MOSAIC AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF AN APPROXIMATE SULLIVAN TO SHELBYVILLE
LINE. DRY AIR IS WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AND SHORT TERM
MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A BREAK IN THE SOLID AREA OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ANOTHER SOLID AREA OF PRECIP MOVING IN
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 19-21Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET TO MIX IN WILL CONTINUE AT KBMG SO ADDED A
CHANCE FOR THIS BACK IN FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CATEGORICAL SNOW.
WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL TO STICK AROUND AWHILE
LONGER HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX IN THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. KEPT CATEGORICAL
POPS GOING IN THE SOUTH WITH THE SOLID PRECIP SHIELD SO CLOSE
ALTHOUGH THEY COULD ALSO SEE BRIEF BREAKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS WELL. IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
FAVORING THE ENTRENCHMENT OF THE DRY AIR AND AWAY FROM ANY SORT OF
CONTINUED PRECIP SO DROPPED POPS THERE TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CANCELLED THE ADVISORY. THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY ALSO
STRUGGLE TO SEE MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE
LOCATION OF THE SNOW BANDS IN THE RAPID UPDATE MODELS BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT TO KEEP WARNING GOING AND REEVALUATE
LATER AS THE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP AND LOCATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
RIGHT NOW RAP AND HRRR ARE SHOWING A MID AFTERNOON BAND AND THEN
ANOTHER BAND IN THE EVENING WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 SO TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE POPS BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DROP THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES JUST YET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT AS THE STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS QUICKLY INTO
KENTUCKY. BEST FORCING AS SEEN BY THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION REMAINS ACROSS KENTUCKY...CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THAT AT TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER 00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THUS WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z
MONDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD MIXING OVER THE FRESH SNOW. WILL USE A BLEND
ON LOWS.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE QUICK FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL SURELY BRING A FEW CI PASSING FROM TIME TO TIME
IN THE FLOW. GOOD MID LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THUS WILL AIM
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS ON MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN PLACE MONDAY AND THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL TREND MONDAY HIGHS AND MONDAY NIGHTS LOWS COOLER THAN MAVMOS.
ON TUESDAY THE COLD AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AS 850MB
TEMPS HOLD AROUND -8C. MAVMOS HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
APPEAR TOO WARM GIVEN THIS SET-UP AND WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THEN.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD ARCTIC AIR LOOK TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM HERE STILL LOOKS
TOO COLD WHILE THE GFS 850MB TEMPS TRY AND MODERATE WARMER. WILL
USE A BLEND ON TUESDAY HIGHS AND STICK CLOSE TO MEXMOS FOR LOWS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...AND A DEEP
CUT-OFF LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE DEEP SOUTH. ALL PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THOUGH. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...PARTIAL THICKNESSES ARE INDICATING
PRECIP PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH CAN
EXPECT ALL SNOW. WEAK WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH COURSE
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 941 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE 15Z UPDATE THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW WHICH HAS
IMPACTED KHUF AND KIND SINCE 1330Z HAS NOW SHIFTED SOUTH OF BOTH
SITES. SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET...WILL CONTINUE AT KBMG FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT A BREAK FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.
HRRR SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW SET TO IMPACT KBMG/
KHUF/KIND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AND WILL REINTRODUCE
LIFR CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME. MEANWHILE FOR KLAF...HAVE BACKED OFF
TO VCSH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS SIGNIFICANT SNOW APPEARS TO BE
OVER. SOME HINTS THAT THE SECONDARY ROUND OF SNOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY GRAZE KLAF AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.
12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
WINTER STORM IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING TAF SITES. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS ARE A TAD BETTER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH
MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OPPOSED TO IFR.
HOWEVER...STILL ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE FURTHER AFTER
SUN 15Z AS BULK OF STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN MID-MORNING AND MID-AFTERNOON TODAY. FREEZING
RAIN/ICE PELLETS HAVE CONVERTED OVER TO ALL SNOW AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT KBMG...WHICH IS STILL REPORTING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT KBMG TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS WELL AROUND MID-MORNING.
SO...LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN 15Z...DETERIORATING TO
IFR FOR THE LATE MORNING...AND WORSENING EVEN FURTHER TO IFR/LIFR
FROM SUN 18Z TO MON 00Z. AT THAT POINT...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHTER...AND TAFS SHOULD BE AROUND THE MVFR/IFR MARK. DO
NOT EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER MON 09Z WHEN
SNOW ENDS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO
14 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ036-037-
039>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
616 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SNOW HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND PUSHED WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW. THE 00Z ECMWF...GEM
AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST SNOW MAY RIPPLE BACK NORTH WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT ARRIVING OUT OF THE PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE GFS AND NAM KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH. THIS LATTER
SCENARIO LOOKS MORE LIKELY AS THE DEPTH OF THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY
CONFLUENT OVER THAT REGION.
HAVE THUS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL UPDATE
FORECAST WORDING FOR LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
REDEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY
AREA OVER EASTERN IA LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW...AND AT 6 AM IT WAS
OUTLINING WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -19 TO -25.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
LARGE AXIS OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO A
140 KT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SETTLE
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 3 AM...ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KEOSAUQUA THROUGH GALESBURG TO PRINCETON IL. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH WAS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS HIGH WERE IN THE
SUBZERO TEENS AND 20S...WHILE IN THE LOCAL AREA...COLD AIR ADVECTION
HAD JUST PUSHED TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO IN VINTON AND INDEPENDENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
MAIN FOCUS IS ON HEADLINES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF ACROSS THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING AND UNSEASONABLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE ENTIRE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE GREAT LAKES JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES THROUGH MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL FORCING
DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL BRUSH THIS AREA BY AFTERNOON.
WILL THUS KEEP LIGHT SNOW AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING
ACROSS OUR NE MO COUNTIES AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL IL COUNTIES UNTIL
NOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
LOOKS LIMITED TO FURTHER SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL
ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES IN THE
EXTREME FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING. HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA AND REPLACED MUCH
OF IT WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN UNTIL NOON. FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WILL DRIVE WIND
CHILLS BELOW -20 FOR PERIODS THIS MORNING NW OF A LINE FROM
FAIRFIELD THROUGH IOWA CITY TO GALENA. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING OVER THE
AREA CURRENTLY RECEIVING SNOW UNTIL 12Z...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT AN EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS FOR
EARLY MARCH SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A GENERAL NORTH
TO SOUTH CLEARING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE TODAY...THE WIDESPREAD
FRESH SNOW COVER AND COLD ADVECTION ON NORTH WINDS WILL LIMIT ANY
DAYTIME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 2
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 10 IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST...WHICH IS ON THE
WARMEST SIDE OF LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. TONIGHT...THE IN-BUILDING
ARCTIC HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL IA BY 12Z. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS IN A 5 TO
10 MPH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
PROVIDING A WIND CHILL THREAT...BUT AT THE SAME TIME PREVENTING A
TEMPERATURE CRASH THAT THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW COVER WOULD
OTHERWISE ALLOW IN THE EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE TOWARD
MORNING...HOWEVER...AND KEPT OUR FORECAST CONSISTENT WITH LOWS
ROUGHLY FROM AROUND -18 NW TO -10 IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS
WELL ABOVE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE THAT PUSHES -20 OR COLDER
INTO THE NW. OUR FORECAST LOWS WILL THREATEN MARCH 3 RECORDS...AND
ALSO PUT MARCH 2 RECORDS AT RISK DEPENDING ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES
DROP THIS EVENING. BOTH THESE AND THE ALL TIME RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH
CAN BE FOUND IN THE SEPARATE CLIMATE SECTION. WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED
FURTHER HEADLINES...ALONG THE LINES OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY A WARNING FOR TONIGHT. OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -25...CLOSING IN ON -30 TOWARD
MORNING WHEN THE ACTUAL WIND BEGINS TO DROP OFF.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE AT
OR BELOW -20 FOR FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL IN BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW RISE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME MID TO LATE WEEK
AS THE UPPER FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HAVE
CONTINUED SOME BROAD BRUSH LOW POPS FOR SNOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 20S FOR
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT AND TEENS FOR LOWS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A WARM UP AS SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A TROF MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS.
HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
30S AND 40S POSSIBLE FRIDAY. MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PRECIPITATION NORTH WITH RAIN SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING WITH IT
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO IA BY TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THERE
IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLURRIES AT BRL...OTHERWISE...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20
KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KTS BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 2...
BURLINGTON..... -4 IN 1913
CEDAR RAPIDS... -13 IN 1912
DUBUQUE........ -12 IN 1890
MOLINE......... -9 IN 1913
RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 3...
BURLINGTON..... -3 IN 1913
CEDAR RAPIDS... -9 IN 1913
DUBUQUE........ -10 IN 2002
MOLINE......... -8 IN 1884
MARCH RECORD LOWS...
BURLINGTON..... -13 03/05/1960
CEDAR RAPIDS... -20 03/01/1962
DUBUQUE........ -20 03/01/1962
MOLINE......... -19 03/06/1960
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR JO DAVIESS.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
617 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
Bands of frontogenesis continue to bring precipitation to mainly
eastern and southern sections of the CWA. Radar trends suggesting
precip types trending to more snow versus sleet. Latest water vapor
has upper trough still not yet through the Four Corners with 09Z obs
putting axis of surface ridge through central Kansas.
Models continue to differ on just where precip will be today. The
GFS seems to be the strong outlier again, with much stronger and
deeper frontogenesis redeveloping this morning. This seems to be
tied to a very strong and channeled vorticity max it brings through
aloft, backing mid level winds and tightening the thermal gradient.
With its recent runs not panning out too well, and it being the
outlier, have put little weight on it. Still will have some 1.5 PV
pressure advection this morning and increasing 300-700mb Q-vector
convergence across east central Kansas as the wave enters the
Panhandles this afternoon. Non-GFS models are similar with the
middle and lower levels drying throughout the day, helping limit
precip chances north of I-70 to mainly the early day, with southern
areas clearing overnight as the wave passes. Have trended amounts
down, but still somewhat conservatively as RAP and HRRR still
suggest some banded structures continuing northeast into northeast
and east central Kansas. Any significant accumulations for north
central Kansas should be finished and dropped the Advisory there,
while tapering amounts elsewhere for a downgrade from Riley to
Jackson counties and ending the Warning earlier for locations north
of the Turnpike. Mid level winds do back a bit as the wave nears for
a potentially warmer warm nose and perhaps more sleet to return just
north of the Turnpike this morning. Wind chills are the other major
consideration and Advisory levels should persist through around
midday for the entire area, and will likely return this evening as
temps drop to around 0 and winds slowly subside. Just how far the
winds go down is a big challenge with clearing taking place as the
center of the high comes in. With the ongoing situation and
uncertainty tonight, will hold off on a headline for tonight at this
point.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
After a very cold start to the day on Monday with wind chills in the
15 to 23 below zero range through late morning. The winds will be
around 5 mph with temperatures of 4 to 8 below zero rising above
zero by noon. Surface high pressure will be located over northeast
Kansas on Monday morning then moving off to the east through the
day. This will allow for winds to come back around to the southeast
from west to east through the day. Highs on Monday with limited
mixing and some snow cover will only warm into the teens.
Tuesday a wave moves through the northwest flow across the Northern
Plains and into the Great Lakes Region. This will push another front
south into the CWA by the end of the day. Highs on Tuesday will warm
back to above freezing ranging from the lower to middle 30s.
Models bring the next trough across the Central Plains in the
northwest flow on Wednesday. There appears to be sufficient moisture
and lift with this system as it moves through for light
precipitation. Forecast soundings from the GFS and ECMWF suggest all
snow generally along and south of Interstate 70 with some light snow
to the north. Highs Wednesday will again be in the 30s.
Warm advection and weak ridging occur Thursday into Friday which
will warm things up for the end of the week. Highs in the 40s
expected on Thursday with 50s on Friday. Friday night and Saturday
will see the next system move through the area. This will bring a
chance of rain and snow to the CWA. There is still model uncertainty
with the timing of the trough late in the week so confidence is low
with regards to the timing as the GFS is much faster and further
north than the ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 617AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
Bands of light snow expected across the area this in the early
portions of the forecast and will go with TEMPO to start with
visibilities being the main concern. VFR conditions should
dominate the latter half of the forecast.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 617 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
Current record temperatures and year set for today and Monday...
Lowest Maximum Lowest Minimum Lowest Maximum
March 2 March 3 March 3
-----------------------------------------------------------
Topeka 14 F (1943) -1 F (1960) 16 F (1978)
Concordia 15 F (2002) -6 F (1960) 12 F (1960)
Current record temperatures and date set for any day in March...
Lowest Maximum Lowest Minimum
-----------------------------------------------------------
Topeka 9 F (March 4, 1960) -7 F (March 4, 1978)
Concordia 8 F (March 11, 1948) -11 F (March 11, 1948)
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR
KSZ022>024.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ026-
035>040.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ008-009-020-021-
034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ010>012.
WINTER STORM WARNING until Midnight CST tonight FOR KSZ054>056-
058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...65
CLIMATE...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
426 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
Bands of frontogenesis continue to bring precipitation to mainly
eastern and southern sections of the CWA. Radar trends suggesting
precip types trending to more snow versus sleet. Latest water vapor
has upper trough still not yet through the Four Corners with 09Z obs
putting axis of surface ridge through central Kansas.
Models continue to differ on just where precip will be today. The
GFS seems to be the strong outlier again, with much stronger and
deeper frontogenesis redeveloping this morning. This seems to be
tied to a very strong and channeled vorticity max it brings through
aloft, backing mid level winds and tightening the thermal gradient.
With its recent runs not panning out too well, and it being the
outlier, have put little weight on it. Still will have some 1.5 PV
pressure advection this morning and increasing 300-700mb Q-vector
convergence across east central Kansas as the wave enters the
Panhandles this afternoon. Non-GFS models are similar with the
middle and lower levels drying throughout the day, helping limit
precip chances north of I-70 to mainly the early day, with southern
areas clearing overnight as the wave passes. Have trended amounts
down, but still somewhat conservatively as RAP and HRRR still
suggest some banded structures continuing northeast into northeast
and east central Kansas. Any significant accumulations for north
central Kansas should be finished and dropped the Advisory there,
while tapering amounts elsewhere for a downgrade from Riley to
Jackson counties and ending the Warning earlier for locations north
of the Turnpike. Mid level winds do back a bit as the wave nears for
a potentially warmer warm nose and perhaps more sleet to return just
north of the Turnpike this morning. Wind chills are the other major
consideration and Advisory levels should persist through around
midday for the entire area, and will likely return this evening as
temps drop to around 0 and winds slowly subside. Just how far the
winds go down is a big challenge with clearing taking place as the
center of the high comes in. With the ongoing situation and
uncertainty tonight, will hold off on a headline for tonight at this
point.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
After a very cold start to the day on Monday with wind chills in the
15 to 23 below zero range through late morning. The winds will be
around 5 mph with temperatures of 4 to 8 below zero rising above
zero by noon. Surface high pressure will be located over northeast
Kansas on Monday morning then moving off to the east through the
day. This will allow for winds to come back around to the southeast
from west to east through the day. Highs on Monday with limited
mixing and some snow cover will only warm into the teens.
Tuesday a wave moves through the northwest flow across the Northern
Plains and into the Great Lakes Region. This will push another front
south into the CWA by the end of the day. Highs on Tuesday will warm
back to above freezing ranging from the lower to middle 30s.
Models bring the next trough across the Central Plains in the
northwest flow on Wednesday. There appears to be sufficient moisture
and lift with this system as it moves through for light
precipitation. Forecast soundings from the GFS and ECMWF suggest all
snow generally along and south of Interstate 70 with some light snow
to the north. Highs Wednesday will again be in the 30s.
Warm advection and weak ridging occur Thursday into Friday which
will warm things up for the end of the week. Highs in the 40s
expected on Thursday with 50s on Friday. Friday night and Saturday
will see the next system move through the area. This will bring a
chance of rain and snow to the CWA. There is still model uncertainty
with the timing of the trough late in the week so confidence is low
with regards to the timing as the GFS is much faster and further
north than the ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014
Mvfr cigs and vsbys in snow will persist through 18z with most
of the ifr cigs and lifr vsbys in snow to occur before 10z
and mainly in the ktop/kfoe sites. Otherwise expect any lingering
light snow to end across the terminals by 00z/03 with vfr stratocu
deck near 3500 feet. Gusty north 15 to 22 kts will slowly decrease
aft 21z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR
KSZ022>024.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ026-
035>040.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ008-009-020-021-
034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ010>012.
WINTER STORM WARNING until Midnight CST tonight FOR KSZ054>056-
058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
959 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EST SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...AS WELL AS
THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME SUNNY BREAKS
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AREAS OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY TO REFLECT THE END OF THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD ADVECTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB MUCH
MORE FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 606 AM EST SUNDAY...UPDATED FCST TO MENTION LIKELY
POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS THRU 15Z...AND ADJUSTED
CRNT TEMPS BASED ON OBS. LATEST SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS THE
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLW AND FAVORABLE LVLL MOISTURE PROFILES WL
CONT TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS THRU MID MORNING TODAY.
ALREADY RECEIVE A REPORT FROM STOWE AT 1500 FEET OF 3.5" OF FLUFFY
SNOW...THINKING AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE MOISTURE IN FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION DECREASES AND
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS CHANGES TO FLURRIES. HAVE
NOTED SOME VERY DRY AIR JUST OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
MORNING WITH SFC DWPTS <0F MOVING TWD OUR REGION ON BRISK NW
WINDS. THIS LLVL DRY AIR WL UNCUT MID LVL MOISTURE ALOFT TO
DECREASE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPS WL CONT TO FALL BEHIND THE
FRNT THIS MORNING...BEFORE LEVELING OFF AROUND MIDDAY. VERY COLD
NIGHT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...HAVE DECREASED TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS. THINKING BTWN
-12F AND -18F SLK/NEK TO -5F TO -12F CENTRAL VT/SLV TO -5F TO 5F
CPV/LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
PICTURE BIG WATER VAPOR SHOWS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER LVL
MOISTURE DRAPED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS THIS
MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND S/W ENERGY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS MID LVL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD PVA
ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WL CONT TO IMPACT OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING...BEFORE DEPARTING OUR CWA BY 15Z.
THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED TIGHT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THERMAL
GRADIENT WITH LLVL CAA WL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT TEMP FCST TODAY.
PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -20C NEAR MSS AT 15Z TODAY TO -9C
AT VSF...INDICATING THE SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT ACRS OUR REGION. WL
MENTION HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS DACKS/SLV TO UPPER
20S LWR CT RIVER VALLEY WITH VALUES IN THE L20S ACRS THE CPV...BUT
FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. ALSO...WL CONT
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA TIMING...WHICH
WL BE BTWN 12Z-15Z FOR OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
LATEST RAP CONTS TO SHOW GOOD 850 TO 500MB RH...ALONG WITH SOME
FAVORABLE 850 TO 700MB FGEN LIFT AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT QPF/PROGGED
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RETURNS. STILL ANTICIPATING SOME VIRGA WITH
INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP...AS LARGE SPREAD CONTS BTWN SFC TEMP AND
DWPTS. SNOWFALL WL RANGE BTWN DUSTING AND 2 INCHES THRU
15Z....BEFORE DRYING AIR AND SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA
THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THRU TUESDAY WL BE THE MUCH BLW
NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED...AND JUST HOW COLD WE GET. STILL
NOTICING A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE BTWN THE COLDER MAV
AND WARMER MET NUMBERS...WITH THE ECE MOS SHOWING A NICE
COMPROMISE. WL USE A BLEND FOR TEMPS...WITH A TREND TWD THE
ECE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. FOR TONIGHT...SFC
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND WEAK LOW PRES TO OUR EAST WL RESULT IN BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS ACRS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN COLD WIND CHILL AND
KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED. THIS MIXING WL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT WITH LOWS EXPECTED BTWN -5F AND -10F
SLV/DACKS/NEK TO -5F TO +5F CPV/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. THESE
EXPECTED TEMPS COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNTS WL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -10F AND -20F ACRS THE DACKS...VERY
SIMILAR TO A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO. GIVEN MARGINALLY REACHING WIND
CHILL CRITERIA AND RECENT COLD WX...WL NOT BE ISSUING HIGHLIGHT
WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT WL MENTION IN HWO. ALSO...AS TEMPS DROP BLW
-5F IN THE COLDER VALLEYS...WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS AND
BECOME MORE TRRN DRIVEN. FOR MONDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLW CONTS
WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ONLY BTWN -18C AND -22C...WHICH ARE 2 TO
3 STD BLW NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY WL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS
MTNS/SLK/NEK TO LOWER TEENS CENTRAL VT/MPV TO MID TEENS CPV/LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS FROM LLVL INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HRS. SFC RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROP
WITH LOWS AROUND -20F EXPECTED ACRS THE DACKS/NEK TO -15F CENTRAL
VT VALLEYS/NASHVILLE TO -10F SLV TO 0 TO -5F CPV/UHI AREAS. WL
TREND TWD THE WARMER MET/ECE SOLUTIONS...GIVEN RECENT BETTER
PERFORMANCE WITH TEMPS AND SLIGHT WARMING IN LVLL THERMAL
PROFILES.
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SOUTH OF REGION AS MID LVL MOISTURE
AND 5H VORT IN THE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT APPROACH OUR CWA.
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY LLVLS WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT
HAVE NOTICED BOTH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF ACRS
OUR REGION. WL MENTION SOME VERY LOW CHC POPS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LVL MOISTURE AND 5H VORT...BUT THINKING BETTER CHCS ARRIVE WITH NEXT
SFC BOUNDARY ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...SOME WL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
MTNS TO NEAR 20F WARMER VALLEYS. STILL 10 TO 20 DEGREES BLW NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...WE CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH NEW BRUNSWICK UPPER LOW ROTATING WEAK REPLENISHMENT OF
COLD AIR FOR LATE WED/WED NGT. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THIS AS IT MOVES THRU...PRETTY MUCH COLDER THAN
NORMAL/DRY PATTERN PERSISTING.
SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING MID/LATE WEEK ACRS CONUS WITH OUR FA MAINLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM. WITH ZONAL FLOW AND MODERATING
TMPS FOR LATE WEEK INTO ERLY WEEKEND WITH NRN STREAM DELIVERING WEAK
COLD FRONT SAT NGT/SUN TIMEFRAME WITH SOME SHSN.
MEANWHILE... A SRN STREAM LOW DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO TRAVEL OFF SE
CONUS/MID ATLANTIC THU NGT/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH OF
FA THIS MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTH OF FA
THIS MORNING AS WELL.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KSLK/KBTV/KMPV AND KRUT UNTIL MID-MRNG
THEN VFR WITH GRADUAL CLRG SKIES THAT WILL CONTINUE OVRNGT. NW
WINDS 10-15KTS ERLY WL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS THIS AFTN AND LIGT TO
5 KTS OVRNGT.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
628 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD TEMPERATURES. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS DROPPING
BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 606 AM EST SUNDAY...UPDATED FCST TO MENTION LIKELY POPS ACRS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS THRU 15Z...AND ADJUSTED CRNT TEMPS
BASED ON OBS. LATEST SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS THE COMBINATION OF
UPSLOPE FLW AND FAVORABLE LVLL MOISTURE PROFILES WL CONT TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS THRU MID MORNING TODAY. ALREADY
RECEIVE A REPORT FROM STOWE AT 1500 FEET OF 3.5" OF FLUFFY
SNOW...THINKING AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE MOISTURE IN FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION DECREASES AND
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS CHANGES TO FLURRIES. HAVE
NOTED SOME VERY DRY AIR JUST OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
MORNING WITH SFC DWPTS <0F MOVING TWD OUR REGION ON BRISK NW
WINDS. THIS LLVL DRY AIR WL UNCUT MID LVL MOISTURE ALOFT TO
DECREASE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPS WL CONT TO FALL BEHIND THE
FRNT THIS MORNING...BEFORE LEVELING OFF AROUND MIDDAY. VERY COLD
NIGHT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...HAVE DECREASED TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS. THINKING BTWN
-12F AND -18F SLK/NEK TO -5F TO -12F CENTRAL VT/SLV TO -5F TO 5F
CPV/LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
PICTURE BIG WATER VAPOR SHOWS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER LVL
MOISTURE DRAPED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS THIS
MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND S/W ENERGY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS MID LVL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD PVA
ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WL CONT TO IMPACT OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING...BEFORE DEPARTING OUR CWA BY 15Z.
THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED TIGHT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THERMAL
GRADIENT WITH LLVL CAA WL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT TEMP FCST TODAY.
PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -20C NEAR MSS AT 15Z TODAY TO -9C
AT VSF...INDICATING THE SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT ACRS OUR REGION. WL
MENTION HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS DACKS/SLV TO UPPER
20S LWR CT RIVER VALLEY WITH VALUES IN THE L20S ACRS THE CPV...BUT
FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. ALSO...WL CONT
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA TIMING...WHICH
WL BE BTWN 12Z-15Z FOR OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
LATEST RAP CONTS TO SHOW GOOD 850 TO 500MB RH...ALONG WITH SOME
FAVORABLE 850 TO 700MB FGEN LIFT AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT QPF/PROGGED
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RETURNS. STILL ANTICIPATING SOME VIRGA WITH
INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP...AS LARGE SPREAD CONTS BTWN SFC TEMP AND
DWPTS. SNOWFALL WL RANGE BTWN DUSTING AND 2 INCHES THRU
15Z....BEFORE DRYING AIR AND SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA
THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THRU TUESDAY WL BE THE MUCH BLW
NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED...AND JUST HOW COLD WE GET. STILL
NOTICING A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE BTWN THE COLDER MAV
AND WARMER MET NUMBERS...WITH THE ECE MOS SHOWING A NICE
COMPROMISE. WL USE A BLEND FOR TEMPS...WITH A TREND TWD THE
ECE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. FOR TONIGHT...SFC
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND WEAK LOW PRES TO OUR EAST WL RESULT IN BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS ACRS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN COLD WIND CHILL AND
KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED. THIS MIXING WL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT WITH LOWS EXPECTED BTWN -5F AND -10F
SLV/DACKS/NEK TO -5F TO +5F CPV/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. THESE
EXPECTED TEMPS COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNTS WL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -10F AND -20F ACRS THE DACKS...VERY
SIMILAR TO A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO. GIVEN MARGINALLY REACHING WIND
CHILL CRITERIA AND RECENT COLD WX...WL NOT BE ISSUING HIGHLIGHT
WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT WL MENTION IN HWO. ALSO...AS TEMPS DROP BLW
-5F IN THE COLDER VALLEYS...WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS AND
BECOME MORE TRRN DRIVEN. FOR MONDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLW CONTS
WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ONLY BTWN -18C AND -22C...WHICH ARE 2 TO
3 STD BLW NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY WL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS
MTNS/SLK/NEK TO LOWER TEENS CENTRAL VT/MPV TO MID TEENS CPV/LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS FROM LLVL INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HRS. SFC RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROP
WITH LOWS AROUND -20F EXPECTED ACRS THE DACKS/NEK TO -15F CENTRAL
VT VALLEYS/NASHVILLE TO -10F SLV TO 0 TO -5F CPV/UHI AREAS. WL
TREND TWD THE WARMER MET/ECE SOLUTIONS...GIVEN RECENT BETTER
PERFORMANCE WITH TEMPS AND SLIGHT WARMING IN LVLL THERMAL
PROFILES.
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SOUTH OF REGION AS MID LVL MOISTURE
AND 5H VORT IN THE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT APPROACH OUR CWA.
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY LLVLS WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT
HAVE NOTICED BOTH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF ACRS
OUR REGION. WL MENTION SOME VERY LOW CHC POPS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LVL MOISTURE AND 5H VORT...BUT THINKING BETTER CHCS ARRIVE WITH NEXT
SFC BOUNDARY ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...SOME WL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
MTNS TO NEAR 20F WARMER VALLEYS. STILL 10 TO 20 DEGREES BLW NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...WE CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH NEW BRUNSWICK UPPER LOW ROTATING WEAK REPLENISHMENT OF
COLD AIR FOR LATE WED/WED NGT. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THIS AS IT MOVES THRU...PRETTY MUCH COLDER THAN
NORMAL/DRY PATTERN PERSISTING.
SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING MID/LATE WEEK ACRS CONUS WITH OUR FA MAINLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM. WITH ZONAL FLOW AND MODERATING
TMPS FOR LATE WEEK INTO ERLY WEEKEND WITH NRN STREAM DELIVERING WEAK
COLD FRONT SAT NGT/SUN TIMEFRAME WITH SOME SHSN.
MEANWHILE... A SRN STREAM LOW DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO TRAVEL OFF SE
CONUS/MID ATLANTIC THU NGT/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH OF
FA THIS MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTH OF FA
THIS MORNING AS WELL.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KSLK/KBTV/KMPV AND KRUT UNTIL MID-MRNG
THEN VFR WITH GRADUAL CLRG SKIES THAT WILL CONTINUE OVRNGT. NW
WINDS 10-15KTS ERLY WL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS THIS AFTN AND LIGT TO
5 KTS OVRNGT.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
614 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD TEMPERATURES. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS DROPPING
BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 606 AM EST SUNDAY...UPDATED FCST TO MENTION LIKELY POPS ACRS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS THRU 15Z...AND ADJUSTED CRNT TEMPS
BASED ON OBS. LATEST SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS THE COMBINATION OF
UPSLOPE FLW AND FAVORABLE LVLL MOISTURE PROFILES WL CONT TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS THRU MID MORNING TODAY. ALREADY
RECEIVE A REPORT FROM STOWE AT 1500 FEET OF 3.5" OF FLUFFY
SNOW...THINKING AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE MOISTURE IN FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION DECREASES AND
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS CHANGES TO FLURRIES. HAVE
NOTED SOME VERY DRY AIR JUST OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
MORNING WITH SFC DWPTS <0F MOVING TWD OUR REGION ON BRISK NW
WINDS. THIS LLVL DRY AIR WL UNCUT MID LVL MOISTURE ALOFT TO
DECREASE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPS WL CONT TO FALL BEHIND THE
FRNT THIS MORNING...BEFORE LEVELING OFF AROUND MIDDAY. VERY COLD
NIGHT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...HAVE DECREASED TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS. THINKING BTWN
-12F AND -18F SLK/NEK TO -5F TO -12F CENTRAL VT/SLV TO -5F TO 5F
CPV/LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
PICTURE BIG WATER VAPOR SHOWS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER LVL
MOISTURE DRAPED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS THIS
MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND S/W ENERGY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS MID LVL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD PVA
ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WL CONT TO IMPACT OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING...BEFORE DEPARTING OUR CWA BY 15Z.
THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED TIGHT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THERMAL
GRADIENT WITH LLVL CAA WL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT TEMP FCST TODAY.
PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -20C NEAR MSS AT 15Z TODAY TO -9C
AT VSF...INDICATING THE SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT ACRS OUR REGION. WL
MENTION HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS DACKS/SLV TO UPPER
20S LWR CT RIVER VALLEY WITH VALUES IN THE L20S ACRS THE CPV...BUT
FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. ALSO...WL CONT
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA TIMING...WHICH
WL BE BTWN 12Z-15Z FOR OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
LATEST RAP CONTS TO SHOW GOOD 850 TO 500MB RH...ALONG WITH SOME
FAVORABLE 850 TO 700MB FGEN LIFT AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT QPF/PROGGED
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RETURNS. STILL ANTICIPATING SOME VIRGA WITH
INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP...AS LARGE SPREAD CONTS BTWN SFC TEMP AND
DWPTS. SNOWFALL WL RANGE BTWN DUSTING AND 2 INCHES THRU
15Z....BEFORE DRYING AIR AND SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA
THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THRU TUESDAY WL BE THE MUCH BLW
NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED...AND JUST HOW COLD WE GET. STILL
NOTICING A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE BTWN THE COLDER MAV
AND WARMER MET NUMBERS...WITH THE ECE MOS SHOWING A NICE
COMPROMISE. WL USE A BLEND FOR TEMPS...WITH A TREND TWD THE
ECE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. FOR TONIGHT...SFC
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND WEAK LOW PRES TO OUR EAST WL RESULT IN BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS ACRS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN COLD WIND CHILL AND
KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED. THIS MIXING WL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT WITH LOWS EXPECTED BTWN -5F AND -10F
SLV/DACKS/NEK TO -5F TO +5F CPV/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. THESE
EXPECTED TEMPS COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNTS WL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -10F AND -20F ACRS THE DACKS...VERY
SIMILAR TO A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO. GIVEN MARGINALLY REACHING WIND
CHILL CRITERIA AND RECENT COLD WX...WL NOT BE ISSUING HIGHLIGHT
WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT WL MENTION IN HWO. ALSO...AS TEMPS DROP BLW
-5F IN THE COLDER VALLEYS...WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS AND
BECOME MORE TRRN DRIVEN. FOR MONDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLW CONTS
WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ONLY BTWN -18C AND -22C...WHICH ARE 2 TO
3 STD BLW NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY WL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS
MTNS/SLK/NEK TO LOWER TEENS CENTRAL VT/MPV TO MID TEENS CPV/LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS FROM LLVL INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HRS. SFC RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROP
WITH LOWS AROUND -20F EXPECTED ACRS THE DACKS/NEK TO -15F CENTRAL
VT VALLEYS/NASHVILLE TO -10F SLV TO 0 TO -5F CPV/UHI AREAS. WL
TREND TWD THE WARMER MET/ECE SOLUTIONS...GIVEN RECENT BETTER
PERFORMANCE WITH TEMPS AND SLIGHT WARMING IN LVLL THERMAL
PROFILES.
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SOUTH OF REGION AS MID LVL MOISTURE
AND 5H VORT IN THE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT APPROACH OUR CWA.
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY LLVLS WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT
HAVE NOTICED BOTH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF ACRS
OUR REGION. WL MENTION SOME VERY LOW CHC POPS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LVL MOISTURE AND 5H VORT...BUT THINKING BETTER CHCS ARRIVE WITH NEXT
SFC BOUNDARY ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...SOME WL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
MTNS TO NEAR 20F WARMER VALLEYS. STILL 10 TO 20 DEGREES BLW NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...WE CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH NEW BRUNSWICK UPPER LOW ROTATING WEAK REPLENISHMENT OF
COLD AIR FOR LATE WED/WED NGT. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THIS AS IT MOVES THRU...PRETTY MUCH COLDER THAN
NORMAL/DRY PATTERN PERSISTING.
SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING MID/LATE WEEK ACRS CONUS WITH OUR FA MAINLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM. WITH ZONAL FLOW AND MODERATING
TMPS FOR LATE WEEK INTO ERLY WEEKEND WITH NRN STREAM DELIVERING WEAK
COLD FRONT SAT NGT/SUN TIMEFRAME WITH SOME SHSN.
MEANWHILE... A SRN STREAM LOW DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO TRAVEL OFF SE
CONUS/MID ATLANTIC THU NGT/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT 6 HOURS...ENTERING CHAMPL VLY ARD 06Z AND REACHING LWR CT RVR
VLY BY 12Z SUNDAY. SHSN MAINLY ALG/BEHIND FRONT WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS. BACK EDGE ALREADY ENTERING ST LWRNC VLY
AT 06Z AND SHLD BE ACRS CHMPL VLY BY 12Z AND CT RVR VLY 15-17Z.
MAIN IDEA FOR SUNDAY IS FOR SHSN TO LET UP AT MOST OF THE TAFS
THRU SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH LIKELY TO PERSIST LONGER UNDER
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AT SLK AND MPV AS WELL AS AT RUT. I DO THINK
THAT CEILINGS ALSO GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TOWARD VFR AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...WITH EXCEPTIONS BEING MPV AND
SLK. NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 10 KTS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LOCONTO/SLW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
556 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.AVIATION...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX HAS THUS
FAR BEEN IN LIQUID FORM. WE SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE 13-14Z TIME IN FORT WORTH...THEN
AROUND THE 15Z TIME AT KDFW AND KDAL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP AND SHOULD BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE METROPLEX BY
NOON. THIS IS AROUND THE SAME TIME THAT ASCENT WILL INCREASE
OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
SEEN ON SATELLITE MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHERN AZ/NM INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT...BUT IT
WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF
MODERATE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS ASCENT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...ENDING IN THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH
AREA AROUND 03/00Z. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH BY LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. KACT WILL BE SOUTH OF WHERE
MOST OF THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...BUT SHOULD STILL
EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF -FZRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
ALL LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
THE LATEST NAM/RAP LOOK REASONABLE WITH FRONTAL TIMING BUT ARE A
FEW DEGREES TOO WARM. OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND TIMING RELIES
ON A RAP/NAM BLEND WITH A FEW TWEAKS. ALL OTHER NON-WRF MODELS
INCLUDING THE OFTEN RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN TOO SLOW WITH THE
FRONT AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFICULT TO TRUST WITH TODAYS FORECAST.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS GOING TO BE THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AT 5 AM...THE FREEZE LINE HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE NW CWA AND WILL
BE CROSSING THROUGH THE METROPLEX FROM NW TO SE IN THE EARLY-MID
MORNING HOURS. BY NOON...EXPECT THE FREEZE LINE TO BE NEAR A
LAMPASAS TO HILLSBORO TO CANTON LINE. FREEZING TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
ENCOMPASS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG TODAY...AND BY MIDDAY...TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE NW ZONES...WITH
TEMPS IN THE 20S REACHING THE METROPLEX. THESE TEMPS IN THE 20S
REMOVE ANY CONCERN ABOUT WHETHER ROAD SURFACES WOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION AFTER OUR
WARM WEATHER. STILL...BRIDGES/OVERPASSES WILL BE FIRST TO GO.
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT THIS MORNING...PRECIP
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
GENTLY LIFTED ABOVE THE VERY SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION. ICE
ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. ALL MODEL QPF THIS MORNING LOOKS WAY TOO
HIGH. SO PRETTY MUCH EXPECT THE ENTIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AREA TO CONTEND WITH THIS VERY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW SPINNING THROUGH
ARIZONA...WHICH WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
CRITICAL IN ORDER TO GENERATE ANY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE REGION NEAR 700MB
WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE LIFTED FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS
WOULD FAVOR GENERALLY THE REGION EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE CAP WILL
BE WEAKEST. IN ADDITION...THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUT
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS IN A PRIME AREA FOR THE
DRY SLOT TO ROTATE IN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ALL MORNING SUGGESTING THAT THE CAP WILL HOLD ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND THE ARRIVING DRY SLOT WILL END ANY
OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY. THE RAP KEEPS ALL
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. MANY OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS INDICATE ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AROUND 18Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST. WE WILL
FOLLOW THEIR FORECAST...WHICH MEANS THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BE A
TRANSITION ZONE WHERE STREAKS OF LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF FREEZING
OR FROZEN PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE JUST A FEW MILES FROM ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS OF ICE. AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL BE PRESENT
TODAY...ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS EVEN SOME WITH
QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE ISSUE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM IS GOING TO BE
THE LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY IN
THE FORM OF SLEET WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. HOWEVER WITH SUCH
WARM TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION IT IS POSSIBLE PRECIP
TYPE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE OF ELEVATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AND METROPLEX...SEE NO
REASON TO EXPAND THE WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST
ZONES WESTWARD. AGAIN...THIS AREA WILL SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF HEAVY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WHERE ANY ISOLATED STORMS START TO
DEVELOP. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL FILL IN AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ZONES. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
NORTHEAST ZONES LOOKS REASONABLE FOR ACCUMULATION OF SLEET UP TO A
HALF INCH AND ICE AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AREA...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
HIGH...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND LIMIT THE ACCUMULATION SO
AN EXPANSION OF THE WARNING IS NOT NEEDED THERE.
EXPECT THE DRY SLOT TO END ALL PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. WACO/TEMPLE
MAY GET A BRIEF SHOT AT SOME FREEZING RAIN TODAY...BUT BELIEVE THE
CAP WILL HOLD THERE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN.
EVENT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO EXPAND ADVISORY DOWN THERE NOW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
TEXAS WITH SOME LOW 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. NORTH WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH WILL PUT WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20
AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE
COLD ON MONDAY AS MODERATION OF THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE
SLOW DUE TO MORNING CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION. NORTH WINDS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AND SOME AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP PUSH
HIGHS UP INTO THE 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WHILE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
BUT INCREASING CLOUDS SOUTH OF I-20 AROUND MIDNIGHT WILL PUT THE
BRAKES ON RADIATIVE HEAT LOSS. TO THE NORTH OF I-20...SKIES SHOULD
STAY AT LEAST PARTLY CLEAR...SO LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S THERE. THE INCREASING CLOUDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT TAPS INTO SOME MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND
DRAGS IT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH SATURATION OCCURRING FROM
700-500MB. THIS SATURATION OCCURS IN THE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WHICH SUGGESTS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST. WILL CONFINE POPS TO THE REGION SOUTH OF I-20 TUESDAY
MORNING AS THERE IS NO MODEL GUIDANCE THAT BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WHILE 850MB TEMPS WILL HAVE
WARMED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS TIME...THE SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THUS EXPECT A MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL SLOW WARMING OF THE LOW LEVELS VIA WARM
ADVECTION HELPS PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING.
ANY PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST BY MIDDAY. POPS WERE KEPT GENERALLY ON THE LOW SIDE AS
THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE MODEL HOLDOUTS ON THIS EVENT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS EVENT MORE CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT
DAY FOR A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS SURFACE TEMPS LOOK
LIKE THEY COULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ICE BRIDGES/OVERPASSES TUESDAY
MORNING IF PRECIP DOES IN FACT MATERIALIZE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
TROUGH WILL DIG. WILL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY IN
CASE AN AGGRESSIVE ECMWF-LIKE FORECAST VERIFIES. TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...SO JUST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS IF ANYTHING AT THIS POINT. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR THURSDAY. TEMPS
WILL WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ORGANIZING IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 60S ON
THURSDAY AND CREST AROUND 70 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN THERE IS
POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WITH THE GFS A
NOTABLE FAST OUTLIER. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH ALIGNS BETTER
WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THIS MEANS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
SATURDAY WITH A COOL DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE ECMWF HAS
HAD A COUPLE RUNS WHERE IT DROPPED A PIECE OF ENERGY SOUTHWEST INTO
THE BAJA REGION WHICH WOULD GIVE US A CHANCE OF RAIN AND CLOUDY
WEATHER HERE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THIS SOLUTION LOOKS A LITTLE ODD AT
THIS POINT. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND PUT TEMPS BETWEEN
THE COOLER ECMWF AND WARMER GFS.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 35 17 33 26 45 / 80 10 0 10 10
WACO, TX 43 20 37 28 45 / 80 10 0 20 30
PARIS, TX 33 14 32 23 45 / 100 70 0 10 10
DENTON, TX 32 15 32 22 46 / 80 10 0 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 34 15 32 23 44 / 90 30 0 10 10
DALLAS, TX 36 17 33 27 45 / 80 20 0 10 10
TERRELL, TX 40 17 33 25 45 / 90 40 0 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 49 20 36 27 44 / 90 30 0 10 30
TEMPLE, TX 61 20 38 28 46 / 80 10 0 20 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 30 15 35 23 48 / 80 10 0 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ091>093-100>104-115>123-129>135-141>146.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ094-095-
105>107.
&&
$$
30/92
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
534 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR TO LIFR CIGS FOR EASTERN SITES THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE. ALI/LRD SITES CURRENTLY VFR...BUT COULD STILL
BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT ALL BUT
LRD TAF SITES TO BE MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THICK
STRATUS DECK AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALSO SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS. COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR VCT SITE. COLD FRONT
MOVES IN BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AS OF 4AM COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY BETWEEN DALLAS AND WACO. NAM HAS PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
FRONTAL POSITION/TIMING...WITH MOST OTHER MODELS LAGGING A BIT
BEHIND. RUC/RAP MODEL HOWEVER A BIT AHEAD OF NAM. HAVE BASED
TIMING FORECAST ON A BLEND OF THE RAP AND NAM. THIS HAS THE FRONT
ON THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 21Z...AND
THROUGH ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BY 00Z. WILL SEE THE
FRONT THROUGH LAREDO BY AROUND 00-01Z...AND THROUGH CORPUS 01-02Z.
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
SHOULD BE A WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 EXPECTED AGAIN OUT WEST. 925 AND 850 WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND A MAINLY SOUTH WIND DOES POSE THE POSSIBILITY OF
EVEN WARMER TEMPS...HOWEVER STRATUS SHOULD TEMPER THIS SOME.
WEAKENED CAP AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN PROXIMITY OF NORTHEAST ZONES
WILL BRING THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED POPS MUCH...MAINLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S...BUT HAVE A BIT OF 40 POP ALONG NORTH EAST
BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. POPS DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING WILL LINGER 20 POPS IN SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S FOR A LOT OF THE AREA. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE (NAM BASED) HAS LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST
ZONES...BUT WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER THINK WE PROBABLY CAN NOT
REACH THAT. HIGHS MONDAY IN SOME AREAS WILL BE 40 DEGREES LOWER THAN
HIGHS ON SUNDAY. COULD SEE COLDEST HIGHS IN SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO
THICKER CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING RAIN CHANCES. MAINLY HIGHS IN THE
40S MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT STRONGER ACCORDING TO 00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF.
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH STEADILY INCREASING
MOISTURE ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. RAISED POPS
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT TO 40-50
PERCENT. WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING...MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ONLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THAT WILL DEEPEN INTO
A LOW AS IT MOVES INTO LOUISIANA THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE GULF
WATERS. DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN...PUT IN A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.
MARINE...HAVE REPLACED GALE WATCH WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT/MONDAY. WHILE SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE/LIKELY...THINK MAINLY CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO COME DOWN
MONDAY. OFFSHORE ZONES MAY NEED SCA EXTENDED BEYOND 00Z
TUESDAY...BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE BEHAVIOR OF WAVES BEFORE TRYING TO
GET TOO DETAILED ON TIMING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 36 47 38 46 / 30 30 10 40 50
VICTORIA 77 32 47 36 43 / 30 40 10 50 50
LAREDO 90 41 46 39 49 / 20 10 20 30 20
ALICE 87 37 46 37 45 / 20 20 10 30 50
ROCKPORT 74 34 48 39 47 / 20 30 10 50 50
COTULLA 86 37 49 37 47 / 20 10 10 30 20
KINGSVILLE 85 37 45 38 46 / 20 30 20 30 50
NAVY CORPUS 72 38 46 41 48 / 20 30 20 40 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
PZ/83...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
515 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST NAM/RAP LOOK REASONABLE WITH FRONTAL TIMING BUT ARE A
FEW DEGREES TOO WARM. OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND TIMING RELIES
ON A RAP/NAM BLEND WITH A FEW TWEAKS. ALL OTHER NON-WRF MODELS
INCLUDING THE OFTEN RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN TOO SLOW WITH THE
FRONT AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFICULT TO TRUST WITH TODAYS FORECAST.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS GOING TO BE THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AT 5 AM...THE FREEZE LINE HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE NW CWA AND WILL
BE CROSSING THROUGH THE METROPLEX FROM NW TO SE IN THE EARLY-MID
MORNING HOURS. BY NOON...EXPECT THE FREEZE LINE TO BE NEAR A
LAMPASAS TO HILLSBORO TO CANTON LINE. FREEZING TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
ENCOMPASS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG TODAY...AND BY MIDDAY...TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE NW ZONES...WITH
TEMPS IN THE 20S REACHING THE METROPLEX. THESE TEMPS IN THE 20S
REMOVE ANY CONCERN ABOUT WHETHER ROAD SURFACES WOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION AFTER OUR
WARM WEATHER. STILL...BRIDGES/OVERPASSES WILL BE FIRST TO GO.
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT THIS MORNING...PRECIP
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
GENTLY LIFTED ABOVE THE VERY SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION. ICE
ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. ALL MODEL QPF THIS MORNING LOOKS WAY TOO
HIGH. SO PRETTY MUCH EXPECT THE ENTIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AREA TO CONTEND WITH THIS VERY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW SPINNING THROUGH
ARIZONA...WHICH WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
CRITICAL IN ORDER TO GENERATE ANY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE REGION NEAR 700MB
WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE LIFTED FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS
WOULD FAVOR GENERALLY THE REGION EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE CAP WILL
BE WEAKEST. IN ADDITION...THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUT
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS IN A PRIME AREA FOR THE
DRY SLOT TO ROTATE IN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ALL MORNING SUGGESTING THAT THE CAP WILL HOLD ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND THE ARRIVING DRY SLOT WILL END ANY
OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY. THE RAP KEEPS ALL
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. MANY OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS INDICATE ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AROUND 18Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST. WE WILL
FOLLOW THEIR FORECAST...WHICH MEANS THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BE A
TRANSITION ZONE WHERE STREAKS OF LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF FREEZING
OR FROZEN PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE JUST A FEW MILES FROM ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS OF ICE. AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL BE PRESENT
TODAY...ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS EVEN SOME WITH
QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE ISSUE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM IS GOING TO BE
THE LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY IN
THE FORM OF SLEET WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. HOWEVER WITH SUCH
WARM TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION IT IS POSSIBLE PRECIP
TYPE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE OF ELEVATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AND METROPLEX...SEE NO
REASON TO EXPAND THE WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST
ZONES WESTWARD. AGAIN...THIS AREA WILL SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF HEAVY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WHERE ANY ISOLATED STORMS START TO
DEVELOP. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL FILL IN AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ZONES. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
NORTHEAST ZONES LOOKS REASONABLE FOR ACCUMULATION OF SLEET UP TO A
HALF INCH AND ICE AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AREA...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
HIGH...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND LIMIT THE ACCUMULATION SO
AN EXPANSION OF THE WARNING IS NOT NEEDED THERE.
EXPECT THE DRY SLOT TO END ALL PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. WACO/TEMPLE
MAY GET A BRIEF SHOT AT SOME FREEZING RAIN TODAY...BUT BELIEVE THE
CAP WILL HOLD THERE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN.
EVENT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO EXPAND ADVISORY DOWN THERE NOW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
TEXAS WITH SOME LOW 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. NORTH WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH WILL PUT WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20
AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE
COLD ON MONDAY AS MODERATION OF THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE
SLOW DUE TO MORNING CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION. NORTH WINDS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AND SOME AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP PUSH
HIGHS UP INTO THE 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WHILE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
BUT INCREASING CLOUDS SOUTH OF I-20 AROUND MIDNIGHT WILL PUT THE
BRAKES ON RADIATIVE HEAT LOSS. TO THE NORTH OF I-20...SKIES SHOULD
STAY AT LEAST PARTLY CLEAR...SO LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S THERE. THE INCREASING CLOUDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT TAPS INTO SOME MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND
DRAGS IT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH SATURATION OCCURRING FROM
700-500MB. THIS SATURATION OCCURS IN THE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WHICH SUGGESTS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST. WILL CONFINE POPS TO THE REGION SOUTH OF I-20 TUESDAY
MORNING AS THERE IS NO MODEL GUIDANCE THAT BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WHILE 850MB TEMPS WILL HAVE
WARMED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS TIME...THE SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THUS EXPECT A MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL SLOW WARMING OF THE LOW LEVELS VIA WARM
ADVECTION HELPS PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING.
ANY PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST BY MIDDAY. POPS WERE KEPT GENERALLY ON THE LOW SIDE AS
THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE MODEL HOLDOUTS ON THIS EVENT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS EVENT MORE CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT
DAY FOR A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS SURFACE TEMPS LOOK
LIKE THEY COULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ICE BRIDGES/OVERPASSES TUESDAY
MORNING IF PRECIP DOES IN FACT MATERIALIZE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
TROUGH WILL DIG. WILL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY IN
CASE AN AGGRESSIVE ECMWF-LIKE FORECAST VERIFIES. TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...SO JUST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS IF ANYTHING AT THIS POINT. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR THURSDAY. TEMPS
WILL WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ORGANIZING IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 60S ON
THURSDAY AND CREST AROUND 70 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN THERE IS
POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WITH THE GFS A
NOTABLE FAST OUTLIER. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH ALIGNS BETTER
WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THIS MEANS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
SATURDAY WITH A COOL DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE ECMWF HAS
HAD A COUPLE RUNS WHERE IT DROPPED A PIECE OF ENERGY SOUTHWEST INTO
THE BAJA REGION WHICH WOULD GIVE US A CHANCE OF RAIN AND CLOUDY
WEATHER HERE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THIS SOLUTION LOOKS A LITTLE ODD AT
THIS POINT. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND PUT TEMPS BETWEEN
THE COOLER ECMWF AND WARMER GFS.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 35 17 33 26 45 / 80 10 0 10 10
WACO, TX 43 20 37 28 45 / 80 10 0 20 30
PARIS, TX 33 14 32 23 45 / 100 70 0 10 10
DENTON, TX 32 15 32 22 46 / 80 10 0 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 34 15 32 23 44 / 90 30 0 10 10
DALLAS, TX 36 17 33 27 45 / 80 20 0 10 10
TERRELL, TX 40 17 33 25 45 / 90 40 0 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 49 20 36 27 44 / 90 30 0 10 30
TEMPLE, TX 61 20 38 28 46 / 80 10 0 20 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 30 15 35 23 48 / 80 10 0 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ091>093-100>104-115>123-129>135-141>146.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ094-095-
105>107.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
439 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AS OF 4AM COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY BETWEEN DALLAS AND WACO. NAM HAS PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
FRONTAL POSITION/TIMING...WITH MOST OTHER MODELS LAGGING A BIT
BEHIND. RUC/RAP MODEL HOWEVER A BIT AHEAD OF NAM. HAVE BASED
TIMING FORECAST ON A BLEND OF THE RAP AND NAM. THIS HAS THE FRONT
ON THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 21Z...AND
THROUGH ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BY 00Z. WILL SEE THE
FRONT THROUGH LAREDO BY AROUND 00-01Z...AND THROUGH CORPUS 01-02Z.
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
SHOULD BE A WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 EXPECTED AGAIN OUT WEST. 925 AND 850 WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND A MAINLY SOUTH WIND DOES POSE THE POSSIBILITY OF
EVEN WARMER TEMPS...HOWEVER STRATUS SHOULD TEMPER THIS SOME.
WEAKENED CAP AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN PROXIMITY OF NORTHEAST ZONES
WILL BRING THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED POPS MUCH...MAINLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S...BUT HAVE A BIT OF 40 POP ALONG NORTH EAST
BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. POPS DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING WILL LINGER 20 POPS IN SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S FOR A LOT OF THE AREA. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE (NAM BASED) HAS LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST
ZONES...BUT WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER THINK WE PROBABLY CAN NOT
REACH THAT. HIGHS MONDAY IN SOME AREAS WILL BE 40 DEGREES LOWER THAN
HIGHS ON SUNDAY. COULD SEE COLDEST HIGHS IN SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO
THICKER CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING RAIN CHANCES. MAINLY HIGHS IN THE
40S MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT STRONGER ACCORDING TO 00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF.
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH STEADILY INCREASING
MOISTURE ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. RAISED POPS
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT TO 40-50
PERCENT. WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING...MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ONLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THAT WILL DEEPEN INTO
A LOW AS IT MOVES INTO LOUISIANA THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE GULF
WATERS. DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN...PUT IN A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...HAVE REPLACED GALE WATCH WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT/MONDAY. WHILE SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE/LIKELY...THINK MAINLY CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO COME DOWN
MONDAY. OFFSHORE ZONES MAY NEED SCA EXTENDED BEYOND 00Z
TUESDAY...BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE BEHAVIOR OF WAVES BEFORE TRYING TO
GET TOO DETAILED ON TIMING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 36 47 38 46 / 30 30 10 40 50
VICTORIA 77 32 47 36 43 / 30 40 10 50 50
LAREDO 90 41 46 39 49 / 20 10 20 30 20
ALICE 87 37 46 37 45 / 20 20 10 30 50
ROCKPORT 74 34 48 39 47 / 20 30 10 50 50
COTULLA 86 37 49 37 47 / 20 10 10 30 20
KINGSVILLE 85 37 45 38 46 / 20 30 20 30 50
NAVY CORPUS 72 38 46 41 48 / 20 30 20 40 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
943 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING CHANGING RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT QUICKLY TO SNOW AND SLEET MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID-WEEK BEFORE A STRONG STORM SYSTEMS MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
AND/OR A WINTRY MIX EVENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 935 AM EST SUNDAY...
MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE APPORACHING
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ALREADY HAVE REACHED THE LOWER 50S OVER
SOME PARTS OF THE AREA. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF
AREAS THAT START GETTING RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED EXPECTED HIGHS
BY A FEW DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS. REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
RAIN...THE FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT ONSET IN THE NORTH TWO TO
THREE HOURS SLOWER THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED BASED UPON THE LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND THE
RNK WRF-ARW MODELS.
AS OF 530 AM EST SUNDAY...
VERY COMPLICATED WINTER EVENT TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. FOR TODAY...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN WV BY THE END OF THE DAY
FIGHTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. OVERNIGHT...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
COLD/DENSE ARCTIC AIR WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
PA DOWN THROUGH VA EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MEANWHILE...AN
EXTENSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS EVIDENT FROM THE SW STATES EXTENDING
ENE TOWARD PA/OH...ANCHORED FROM A DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVING
EASTWARD FROM THE SW U.S. WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE ARCTIC FRONT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD. THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES. WAVES OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY...SLOWLY PULLING THE FRONT AND THE ATTENDANT DENSE
ARCTIC FURTHER SOUTHWARD...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA
BOUNDARY THROUGH 06Z. OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH POTENTIALLY UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN BY 06Z IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE WV COUNTIES INTO BATH COUNTY VA.
SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK THE ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN
GREENBRIER...CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH ARCTIC AIR SURGING IN FROM THE NW TOWARD THE ALLEGHANY FRONT
THROUGH SUMMERS/MERCER/MONROE...AND THEN ALSO FROM THE NE DOWN
THROUGH THE PIEDMONT. BETWEEN 12Z-14Z...ALL PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
I-64 SHOULD BE SNOW...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET POSSIBLE DURING
THE CHANGEOVER. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CORE OF THE BEST
PCPN TRACKING ESE ROUGHLY FROM LWB AT 12Z TO LYH BY 15Z. THE FINAL
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SE OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...TAKING THE LAST REMNANTS OF THE PCPN WITH IT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. UPSLOPE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AS THE
SFC WINDS VEER QUICKLY AROUND TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND LARGE SFC HIGH MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD PA
UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS
ANOMALOUS AND HAS RESULTED IN AN ANOMALOUS WARNING/ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION. AFTER EXTENSIVE COORDINATION ONCE AGAIN WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND IN CONSIDERATION OF THE ABOVE
SCENARIO...HAVE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS WINTER STORM WATCH TO A
WARNING AND ADDED SEVERAL PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE COMBINED
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MEET WARNING CRITERIA. THUS...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM HINTON...TO ROANOKE...TO LYNCHBURG...TO
CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE...ALL COUNTIES ARE UNDER A WARNING...WITH AN
EARLIER START TIME FOR THOSE WEST OF I-81. SOUTH OF THIS
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SW VA AND NW NC...HAVE POSTED AN
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY...WHERE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. COUNTIES THAT STILL MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING INCLUDE HALIFAX AND DANVILLE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. TEMPS WILL COOL LAST IN THE SW AREAS AND PCPN
WILL BE THE LEAST THERE AS WELL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL NOT ALLOW SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO REACH THE SW COUNTIES
BEFORE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING LATE MONDAY MORNING...THEN THE
PCPN EXITS TO THE EAST. EVEN PATRICK AND SURRY COUNTY ARE
QUESTIONABLE FOR MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND VERY COLD WITH A STRONG NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND MONDAY. MODEL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS AS FAR SOUTH AS DAN/LYH/ROA BY AFTERNOON SEEMED
INCREDULOUS...BUT POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR.
HAVE RAISED THESE UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN CONSIDERATION OF TIME OF
YEAR.
FINALLY...STORM TOTAL QPF STILL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY 1 INCH OR
LESS...AND WITH POTENTIALLY 1/2 OF THIS FALLING AS FROZEN
PCPN...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...
REMAINING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...LIKELY TO BE CONFINED EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AFTER SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THAT THEN LEAVES US
TO DEAL WITH THE NOT-SO-SPRING-LIKE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BUILDING
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A 1030+ ARCTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC TO BUTT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN
A CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN. THIS AIRMASS WILL USHER IN EXCEPTIONALLY
COLD AIR FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU CONSIDER THE
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH NEW SNOW COVER...DECREASING WIND SPEEDS AND
DECREASING CLOUD COVER...EXPECT MONDAY NIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. FORECAST
MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT THE ARCTIC AIR IS VERY
SHALLOW...SUCH THAT MANY OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL BE WARMER THAN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY BOTTOMS AND THE PIEDMONT.
THE ARCTIC WEDGE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. FORECAST MODELS TYPICALLY UNDERESTIMATE THE
STRENGTH OF THESE ARCTIC AIRMASSES...PRODUCING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
TOO WARM. CONSIDERING THAT LITTLE MELTING OF SNOW WILL TAKE PLACE IN
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...HAVE UNDERCUT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE THE WEDGE WILL BE STRONGEST...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL WARMING
WILL STILL TAKE PLACE.
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING FOR TUESDAY...KEEPING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CONFINED IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S
SOUTH...WHILE INCREASED SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S...WITH WARMER RIDGE TOPS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...
A DEVELOPING GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST ON THURSDAY...THEN PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS AND ECM CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH THE GULF LOW ALONG
WITH ITS TRACK AND TIMING. THE GFS DEVELOPS A COASTAL LOW OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLIER AND LIFTS ITS NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS THE GULF LOW EAST
TOWARDS FLORIDA THEN PIVOTS NORTHEAST. THE ECM IS MUCH DEEPER AND
FORMS A CLOSED LOW WHICH MOVES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES A CAROLINA NOR-
EASTER. LEANED TOWARDS HPCGUIDE ENSEMBLE FOR POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS GULF SYSTEM. HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY MORNING AND
TAPER OFF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.
PTYPE REMAINS A TOUGH CALL BECAUSE OF TIMING ISSUES AND THERE ARE
STILL NUMEROUS QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM. DETAILS OF
THE TRACK...QPF AND TEMPERATURES PROFILES WILL BECOME CLEARER WITH
TIME. THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE RAIN AND SNOW WITH
THIS WINTER EVENT GENERALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ACCUMULATING
SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION...ENABLING
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM EST SUNDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE POOLED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...JUST CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AS OF
5 AM SUNDAY. EXPECT THESE MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT AND SCATTER
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL BRIEFLY ACROSS CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS
DELAY WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
POSSIBLY WITH A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE
FRONT RESUMES ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH...AFFECTING LWB AND BLF WITH
OCCASIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RAPID PUSH SOUTHWARD BEGINNING AROUND
03/00Z...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN ITS WAKE. DAN WILL BE LAST TO EXPERIENCE
FROPA...OCCURRING SHORTLY AFTER 03/06Z. AS ARCTIC AIR BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE RAIN CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN...BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES COLD ENOUGH
FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. AT THIS TIME...ONLY LWB
AND BLF ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE WINTRY PRECIPITATION BY
03/12Z...WITH ROA...BCB AND LYH EXPECTED TO SEE A CHANGE OVER
SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND DAN BEFORE 13/18Z.
3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT DAN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES AT DAN.
PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY EXIT THE FORECAST REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND
ALLOWS FOR VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TRACKS ALONG THE
EAST COAST.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ018-
022>024-034-035-045>047-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ019-
020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
VAZ007-010>014-016-017-032-033-043-044-058.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ003>006.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ043>045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...DS/RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
212 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
ANOTHER UPDATE TO PULL DOWN MORE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
UPDATED TO PULL DOWN HIGHLIGHTS FOR PUEBLO COUNTY...THE SOUTHERN
SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND THE WET MOUNTAINS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO IS LINING UP
BETTER WITH RUC13 SO FAR. NOT BUYING THE NAM12 BULLS EYE OF
SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY IN THE 12Z RUN...THOUGH DO
THINK THAT SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS THAT WAY...BUT LEFT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS IS WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING A TRACE TO UP TO 1 INCH. SOUTHEAST PORTS OF THE COUNTY
COULD SEE MORE WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE THE
INHERITED 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS STILL LOOKS IN THE BALL PARK. HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
00Z AS SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SNOW WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 500 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
HAVE CANCELED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EL PASO AS VISIBILITY
PER CAMS AND OBS IS GENERALLY ABOVE ONE MILE. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
ARE PUSHING BACK THE TIMING OF TODAY`S SNOW BAND A BIT...POSSIBLY
DELAYING THE ACCUMULATING SNOW UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE SNOW ADVISORIES FOR NOW. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE PLAINS TODAY.
PRONOUNCED VORT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH SRN AZ PER WV IMAGERY...WITH
A NUMBER OF LTG STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF A 100 KT
JET STREAK NOW BEING NOTED OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL TRANSLATE TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...PUTTING MUCH
OF OUR CWA UNDER THE GUN FOR THE THREAT OF SOME MDT SNOW. LAST
COUPLE OF NAM RUNS HAVE REVERTED BACK TO A FORECAST FROM TWO DAYS
AGO...BRINGING THE H7 DEFORMATION ZONE BACK INTO SE CO AS THE H7
LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE SERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE ALREADY COMPLETELY MISSED THE SNOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
FALLING OVER PUEBLO COUNTY...SO NOT A LOT OF FAITH IN THE MODEL
FORECAST AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW. BUT THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH
INCLUDES THE 3KM WRF...RAP...AND NAM...ALL SHOW A FAIRLY BROAD
BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN CO FROM AROUND 13-14Z AND
LASTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE GOOD CONSENSUS AND
TRENDS IN OBS...BELIEVE THIS WHOLE AREA WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE
OF SEEING AT LEAST LOW END ADVISORY AMTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO
WILL INTRODUCE A SWATH OF NEW ADVISORIES INCLUDING PUEBLO
COUNTY...THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...AND THE SRN PART OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...THE POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATEST SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...BUT THE NAM HAS TRENDED A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
BAND IN THE 06Z RUN...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW
THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORN. AMOUNTS COULD VARY QUITE A A BIT
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS SET UP...BUT PROBABLY 2-6
INCHES OVERALL LOOKS REASONABLE...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE HIGH
SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS AS TEMPS REMAIN IN THE TEENS THIS MORN. ONE
POSITIVE IS THAT THE LOW DENSITY SLOW WILL BRING A LITTLE LESS
IMPACT TO AREA ROADS.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FOR THE PLAINS TODAY...AS VERY COLD AIR IN
PLACE IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...AND WITH PRECIP THERE WILL BE
LITTLE WARM UP. MAY EVEN BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH MID 20S FOR
THE KPUB AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE 30S...AND THE HIGH VALLEYS COULD EVEN SEE SOME 40S
TODAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE FINISHED BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS
TONIGHT COULD REALLY DROP IF THERE IS SOME CLEARING GIVEN THE SNOW
COVER...SO WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT
MAY STILL BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHSN
OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE...LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY QUIET ALBEIT COLD
NIGHT. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
...WX COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING THIS PERIOD...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW TO
MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTNS. ONE DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO BE A BIT
STRONGER...AND MAY BRING SOME SNOW TO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
MON...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE C MTNS...IT WILL BE
DRY. TEMPS WILL RECOVER ON THE PLAINS WITH M50S MOST AREAS. COLDEST
READINGS WILL BE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WHERE M40S WILL OCCUR.
VALLEYS SHOULD SEE MAXES AOA 50F. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
MTNS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL FLOW ON THE PLAINS.
TUE...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL OVER THE C MTN AREAS.
TEMPS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS MAXES. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR E PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BE 5F WARMER THAN
MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR TUE EVE IN THE C MTNS
WHERE 2-3"INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME CONFLICTING
DATA ON HOW STRONG THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE. LATEST 06Z GFS IS QUITE
A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND SHOWS PRECIP LASTING
ACROSS THE E PLAINS TUE NITE AND INTO EARLY WED. LATEST 06Z
NAM...AND 00Z EC SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. FOR NOW LEANED
TOWARD THE EC GUIDANCE. I SHOULD NOTE THAT *IF* THE GFS
VERIFIES...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY SNOW/WIND OVER FAR SE CO
LATE TUE NITE/WED MORNING.
WED...MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION WED AS
COMPARED TO TUE. IT WILL BE DRY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NOTE THAT IF
THE LATEST 06Z GFS DOES VERIFY...THEN IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON WED
THAN WHAT CURRENT NDFD INDICATES.
THU...MAINLY DRY AND WARM THIS DAY. HIGHS APPROACHING 70F I-25
CORRIDOR REGION. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE C MTNS THU NITE AND SNOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE.
FRI INTO SAT...COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH REGION EARLY IN DAY
FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS ON THE PLAINS ARE PRGD TO BE IN THE 55-60F
RANGE AND THESE MAXES MAY BE OPTIMISTIC...AND WILL OCCUR EARLY IN
THE DAY. REGION WIDE MTN SNOWS/LOWER ELEVATION RAINS WILL CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW LATE. EC GUIDANCE MOST INTENSE WITH THIS STORM AS IT
FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS WHILE GFS A BIT MORE OPENED.
I SHOULD NOTE THAT THE 06Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS...SO IT IS TRENDING TOWARDS THE EC
SOLUTION. IF EC VERIFIES...THEN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY E FACING
SLOPES OF S MTNS/RATON MESA REGION WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SNOW FRI NITE INTO EARLY SAT.
GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW INTO MARCH...I WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED
IF THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS VERIFY WITH THESE INCOMING WX SYSTEMS.
HPC GUIDANCE HAS 0.25 TO 0.75" OF PRECIP OVER A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. /HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
DEFORMATION BAND IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF KPUB.
THINK THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHSN AT TIMES AT LEAST THROUGH 20-21Z.
COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN GOING INTO TONIGHT IS POSSIBILITY FOR IFR
TO LIFR CIGS/VIS IN FOG TO REDEVELOP IN WEAK SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW. THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KPUB THAN KCOS DUE TO THE
SNOW COVER. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDERESTIMATING THE WESTWARD
PUSH OF THE COLD AIR AND PERSISTENCE OF STRATUS...SO HAVE
INTRODUCED THIS INTO THE KCOS TAF AS WELL. WEAK FLOW ALOFT FINALLY
ATTAINS A STRONGER NW COMPONENT INTO TONIGHT AND STRATUS/FOG THAT
FORMS SHOULD RECEDE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KCOS AFTER 10Z. IT WILL
HANG ON LONGER IN KPUB...PROBABLY UNTIL AROUND 15Z. KALS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE PASSING -SHSN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH
BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH CLEARING THIS EVENING...KALS STANDS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEEING
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG OVER SNOW COVER. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ093>099.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1256 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
UPDATED TO PULL DOWN HIGHLIGHTS FOR PUEBLO COUNTY...THE SOUTHERN
SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND THE WET MOUNTAINS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO IS LINING UP
BETTER WITH RUC13 SO FAR. NOT BUYING THE NAM12 BULLS EYE OF
SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY IN THE 12Z RUN...THOUGH DO
THINK THAT SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS THAT WAY...BUT LEFT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS IS WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING A TRACE TO UP TO 1 INCH. SOUTHEAST PORTS OF THE COUNTY
COULD SEE MORE WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE THE
INHERITED 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS STILL LOOKS IN THE BALL PARK. HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
00Z AS SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SNOW WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 500 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
HAVE CANCELED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EL PASO AS VISIBILITY
PER CAMS AND OBS IS GENERALLY ABOVE ONE MILE. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
ARE PUSHING BACK THE TIMING OF TODAY`S SNOW BAND A BIT...POSSIBLY
DELAYING THE ACCUMULATING SNOW UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE SNOW ADVISORIES FOR NOW. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
...SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE PLAINS TODAY.
PRONOUNCED VORT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH SRN AZ PER WV IMAGERY...WITH A
NUMBER OF LTG STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF A 100 KT JET
STREAK NOW BEING NOTED OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...PUTTING MUCH OF OUR
CWA UNDER THE GUN FOR THE THREAT OF SOME MDT SNOW. LAST COUPLE OF
NAM RUNS HAVE REVERTED BACK TO A FORECAST FROM TWO DAYS
AGO...BRINGING THE H7 DEFORMATION ZONE BACK INTO SE CO AS THE H7 LOW
TRACKS THROUGH THE SERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE ALREADY COMPLETELY MISSED THE SNOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
FALLING OVER PUEBLO COUNTY...SO NOT A LOT OF FAITH IN THE MODEL
FORECAST AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW. BUT THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH
INCLUDES THE 3KM WRF...RAP...AND NAM...ALL SHOW A FAIRLY BROAD BAND
OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN CO FROM AROUND 13-14Z AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE GOOD CONSENSUS AND TRENDS IN
OBS...BELIEVE THIS WHOLE AREA WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING AT
LEAST LOW END ADVISORY AMTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL INTRODUCE A
SWATH OF NEW ADVISORIES INCLUDING PUEBLO COUNTY...THE SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR...AND THE SRN PART OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...THE
POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATEST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT THE NAM HAS
TRENDED A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND IN THE 06Z RUN...SO WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORN. AMOUNTS
COULD VARY QUITE A A BIT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS SET
UP...BUT PROBABLY 2-6 INCHES OVERALL LOOKS REASONABLE...PARTICULARLY
GIVEN THE HIGH SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS AS TEMPS REMAIN IN THE TEENS THIS
MORN. ONE POSITIVE IS THAT THE LOW DENSITY SLOW WILL BRING A LITTLE
LESS IMPACT TO AREA ROADS.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FOR THE PLAINS TODAY...AS VERY COLD AIR IN
PLACE IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...AND WITH PRECIP THERE WILL BE
LITTLE WARM UP. MAY EVEN BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH MID 20S FOR
THE KPUB AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE 30S...AND THE HIGH VALLEYS COULD EVEN SEE SOME 40S
TODAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE FINISHED BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS
TONIGHT COULD REALLY DROP IF THERE IS SOME CLEARING GIVEN THE SNOW
COVER...SO WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT
MAY STILL BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHSN
OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE...LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY QUIET ALBEIT COLD
NIGHT. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
...WX COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING THIS PERIOD...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW TO
MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTNS. ONE DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO BE A BIT
STRONGER...AND MAY BRING SOME SNOW TO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
MON...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE C MTNS...IT WILL BE
DRY. TEMPS WILL RECOVER ON THE PLAINS WITH M50S MOST AREAS. COLDEST
READINGS WILL BE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WHERE M40S WILL OCCUR.
VALLEYS SHOULD SEE MAXES AOA 50F. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
MTNS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL FLOW ON THE PLAINS.
TUE...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL OVER THE C MTN AREAS.
TEMPS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS MAXES. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR E PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BE 5F WARMER THAN
MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR TUE EVE IN THE C MTNS
WHERE 2-3"INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME CONFLICTING
DATA ON HOW STRONG THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE. LATEST 06Z GFS IS QUITE
A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND SHOWS PRECIP LASTING
ACROSS THE E PLAINS TUE NITE AND INTO EARLY WED. LATEST 06Z
NAM...AND 00Z EC SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. FOR NOW LEANED
TOWARD THE EC GUIDANCE. I SHOULD NOTE THAT *IF* THE GFS
VERIFIES...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY SNOW/WIND OVER FAR SE CO
LATE TUE NITE/WED MORNING.
WED...MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION WED AS
COMPARED TO TUE. IT WILL BE DRY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NOTE THAT IF
THE LATEST 06Z GFS DOES VERIFY...THEN IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON WED
THAN WHAT CURRENT NDFD INDICATES.
THU...MAINLY DRY AND WARM THIS DAY. HIGHS APPROACHING 70F I-25
CORRIDOR REGION. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE C MTNS THU NITE AND SNOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE.
FRI INTO SAT...COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH REGION EARLY IN DAY
FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS ON THE PLAINS ARE PRGD TO BE IN THE 55-60F
RANGE AND THESE MAXES MAY BE OPTIMISTIC...AND WILL OCCUR EARLY IN
THE DAY. REGION WIDE MTN SNOWS/LOWER ELEVATION RAINS WILL CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW LATE. EC GUIDANCE MOST INTENSE WITH THIS STORM AS IT
FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS WHILE GFS A BIT MORE OPENED.
I SHOULD NOTE THAT THE 06Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS...SO IT IS TRENDING TOWARDS THE EC
SOLUTION. IF EC VERIFIES...THEN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY E FACING
SLOPES OF S MTNS/RATON MESA REGION WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SNOW FRI NITE INTO EARLY SAT.
GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW INTO MARCH...I WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED
IF THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS VERIFY WITH THESE INCOMING WX SYSTEMS.
HPC GUIDANCE HAS 0.25 TO 0.75" OF PRECIP OVER A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. /HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
DEFORMATION BAND IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF KPUB.
THINK THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHSN AT TIMES AT LEAST THROUGH 20-21Z.
COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN GOING INTO TONIGHT IS POSSIBILITY FOR IFR
TO LIFR CIGS/VIS IN FOG TO REDEVELOP IN WEAK SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW. THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KPUB THAN KCOS DUE TO THE
SNOW COVER. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDERESTIMATING THE WESTWARD
PUSH OF THE COLD AIR AND PERSISTENCE OF STRATUS...SO HAVE
INTRODUCED THIS INTO THE KCOS TAF AS WELL. WEAK FLOW ALOFT FINALLY
ATTAINS A STRONGER NW COMPONENT INTO TONIGHT AND STRATUS/FOG THAT
FORMS SHOULD RECEDE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KCOS AFTER 10Z. IT WILL
HANG ON LONGER IN KPUB...PROBABLY UNTIL AROUND 15Z. KALS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE PASSING -SHSN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH
BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH CLEARING THIS EVENING...KALS STANDS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEEING
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG OVER SNOW COVER. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ067-
072>075-087>089-093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ094>099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1043 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO IS LINING UP
BETTER WITH RUC13 SO FAR. NOT BUYING THE NAM12 BULLS EYE OF
SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY IN THE 12Z RUN...THOUGH DO
THINK THAT SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS THAT WAY...BUT LEFT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS IS WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING A TRACE TO UP TO 1 INCH. SOUTHEAST PORTS OF THE COUNTY
COULD SEE MORE WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE THE
INHERITED 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS STILL LOOKS IN THE BALL PARK. HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
00Z AS SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SNOW WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 500 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
HAVE CANCELED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EL PASO AS VISIBILITY
PER CAMS AND OBS IS GENERALLY ABOVE ONE MILE. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
ARE PUSHING BACK THE TIMING OF TODAY`S SNOW BAND A BIT...POSSIBLY
DELAYING THE ACCUMULATING SNOW UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE SNOW ADVISORIES FOR NOW. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
...SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE PLAINS TODAY.
PRONOUNCED VORT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH SRN AZ PER WV IMAGERY...WITH A
NUMBER OF LTG STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF A 100 KT JET
STREAK NOW BEING NOTED OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...PUTTING MUCH OF OUR
CWA UNDER THE GUN FOR THE THREAT OF SOME MDT SNOW. LAST COUPLE OF
NAM RUNS HAVE REVERTED BACK TO A FORECAST FROM TWO DAYS
AGO...BRINGING THE H7 DEFORMATION ZONE BACK INTO SE CO AS THE H7 LOW
TRACKS THROUGH THE SERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE ALREADY COMPLETELY MISSED THE SNOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
FALLING OVER PUEBLO COUNTY...SO NOT A LOT OF FAITH IN THE MODEL
FORECAST AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW. BUT THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH
INCLUDES THE 3KM WRF...RAP...AND NAM...ALL SHOW A FAIRLY BROAD BAND
OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN CO FROM AROUND 13-14Z AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE GOOD CONSENSUS AND TRENDS IN
OBS...BELIEVE THIS WHOLE AREA WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING AT
LEAST LOW END ADVISORY AMTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL INTRODUCE A
SWATH OF NEW ADVISORIES INCLUDING PUEBLO COUNTY...THE SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR...AND THE SRN PART OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...THE
POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATEST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT THE NAM HAS
TRENDED A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND IN THE 06Z RUN...SO WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORN. AMOUNTS
COULD VARY QUITE A A BIT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS SET
UP...BUT PROBABLY 2-6 INCHES OVERALL LOOKS REASONABLE...PARTICULARLY
GIVEN THE HIGH SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS AS TEMPS REMAIN IN THE TEENS THIS
MORN. ONE POSITIVE IS THAT THE LOW DENSITY SLOW WILL BRING A LITTLE
LESS IMPACT TO AREA ROADS.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FOR THE PLAINS TODAY...AS VERY COLD AIR IN
PLACE IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...AND WITH PRECIP THERE WILL BE
LITTLE WARM UP. MAY EVEN BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH MID 20S FOR
THE KPUB AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE 30S...AND THE HIGH VALLEYS COULD EVEN SEE SOME 40S
TODAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE FINISHED BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS
TONIGHT COULD REALLY DROP IF THERE IS SOME CLEARING GIVEN THE SNOW
COVER...SO WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT
MAY STILL BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHSN
OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE...LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY QUIET ALBEIT COLD
NIGHT. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
...WX COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING THIS PERIOD...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW TO
MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTNS. ONE DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO BE A BIT
STRONGER...AND MAY BRING SOME SNOW TO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
MON...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE C MTNS...IT WILL BE
DRY. TEMPS WILL RECOVER ON THE PLAINS WITH M50S MOST AREAS. COLDEST
READINGS WILL BE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WHERE M40S WILL OCCUR.
VALLEYS SHOULD SEE MAXES AOA 50F. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
MTNS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL FLOW ON THE PLAINS.
TUE...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL OVER THE C MTN AREAS.
TEMPS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS MAXES. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR E PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BE 5F WARMER THAN
MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR TUE EVE IN THE C MTNS
WHERE 2-3"INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME CONFLICTING
DATA ON HOW STRONG THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE. LATEST 06Z GFS IS QUITE
A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND SHOWS PRECIP LASTING
ACROSS THE E PLAINS TUE NITE AND INTO EARLY WED. LATEST 06Z
NAM...AND 00Z EC SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. FOR NOW LEANED
TOWARD THE EC GUIDANCE. I SHOULD NOTE THAT *IF* THE GFS
VERIFIES...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY SNOW/WIND OVER FAR SE CO
LATE TUE NITE/WED MORNING.
WED...MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION WED AS
COMPARED TO TUE. IT WILL BE DRY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NOTE THAT IF
THE LATEST 06Z GFS DOES VERIFY...THEN IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON WED
THAN WHAT CURRENT NDFD INDICATES.
THU...MAINLY DRY AND WARM THIS DAY. HIGHS APPROACHING 70F I-25
CORRIDOR REGION. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE C MTNS THU NITE AND SNOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE.
FRI INTO SAT...COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH REGION EARLY IN DAY
FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS ON THE PLAINS ARE PRGD TO BE IN THE 55-60F
RANGE AND THESE MAXES MAY BE OPTIMISTIC...AND WILL OCCUR EARLY IN
THE DAY. REGION WIDE MTN SNOWS/LOWER ELEVATION RAINS WILL CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW LATE. EC GUIDANCE MOST INTENSE WITH THIS STORM AS IT
FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS WHILE GFS A BIT MORE OPENED.
I SHOULD NOTE THAT THE 06Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS...SO IT IS TRENDING TOWARDS THE EC
SOLUTION. IF EC VERIFIES...THEN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY E FACING
SLOPES OF S MTNS/RATON MESA REGION WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SNOW FRI NITE INTO EARLY SAT.
GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW INTO MARCH...I WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED
IF THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS VERIFY WITH THESE INCOMING WX SYSTEMS.
HPC GUIDANCE HAS 0.25 TO 0.75" OF PRECIP OVER A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. /HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
DEFORMATION BAND IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF KPUB.
THINK THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
IFR TO MVFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHSN AT TIMES AT LEAST THROUGH 20-21Z.
COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN GOING INTO TONIGHT IS POSSIBILITY FOR IFR
TO LIFR CIGS/VIS IN FOG TO REDEVELOP IN WEAK SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW. THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KPUB THAN KCOS DUE TO THE
SNOW COVER. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDERESTIMATING THE WESTWARD
PUSH OF THE COLD AIR AND PERSISTENCE OF STRATUS...SO HAVE
INTRODUCED THIS INTO THE KCOS TAF AS WELL. WEAK FLOW ALOFT FINALLY
ATTAINS A STRONGER NW COMPONENT INTO TONIGHT AND STRATUS/FOG THAT
FORMS SHOULD RECEDE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KCOS AFTER 10Z. IT WILL
HANG ON LONGER IN KPUB...PROBABLY UNTIL AROUND 15Z. KALS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE PASSING -SHSN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH
BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH CLEARING THIS EVENING...KALS STANDS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEEING
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG OVER SNOW COVER. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ067-
071>075-079-080-086>089-093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ094>099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
946 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO IS LINING UP
BETTER WITH RUC13 SO FAR. NOT BUYING THE NAM12 BULLS EYE OF
SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY IN THE 12Z RUN...THOUGH DO
THINK THAT SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS THAT WAY...BUT LEFT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS IS WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING A TRACE TO UP TO 1 INCH. SOUTHEAST PORTS OF THE COUNTY
COULD SEE MORE WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE THE
INHERITED 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS STILL LOOKS IN THE BALL PARK. HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
00Z AS SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST SNOW WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. -KT
UPDATE ISSUED AT 500 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
HAVE CANCELED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EL PASO AS VISIBILITY
PER CAMS AND OBS IS GENERALLY ABOVE ONE MILE. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
ARE PUSHING BACK THE TIMING OF TODAY`S SNOW BAND A BIT...POSSIBLY
DELAYING THE ACCUMULATING SNOW UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE SNOW ADVISORIES FOR NOW. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
...SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE PLAINS TODAY.
PRONOUNCED VORT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH SRN AZ PER WV IMAGERY...WITH A
NUMBER OF LTG STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF A 100 KT JET
STREAK NOW BEING NOTED OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...PUTTING MUCH OF OUR
CWA UNDER THE GUN FOR THE THREAT OF SOME MDT SNOW. LAST COUPLE OF
NAM RUNS HAVE REVERTED BACK TO A FORECAST FROM TWO DAYS
AGO...BRINGING THE H7 DEFORMATION ZONE BACK INTO SE CO AS THE H7 LOW
TRACKS THROUGH THE SERN PLAINS AND PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE ALREADY COMPLETELY MISSED THE SNOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
FALLING OVER PUEBLO COUNTY...SO NOT A LOT OF FAITH IN THE MODEL
FORECAST AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW. BUT THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH
INCLUDES THE 3KM WRF...RAP...AND NAM...ALL SHOW A FAIRLY BROAD BAND
OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN CO FROM AROUND 13-14Z AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE GOOD CONSENSUS AND TRENDS IN
OBS...BELIEVE THIS WHOLE AREA WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING AT
LEAST LOW END ADVISORY AMTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL INTRODUCE A
SWATH OF NEW ADVISORIES INCLUDING PUEBLO COUNTY...THE SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR...AND THE SRN PART OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. RIGHT NOW...THE
POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATEST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT THE NAM HAS
TRENDED A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND IN THE 06Z RUN...SO WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS MORN. AMOUNTS
COULD VARY QUITE A A BIT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS SET
UP...BUT PROBABLY 2-6 INCHES OVERALL LOOKS REASONABLE...PARTICULARLY
GIVEN THE HIGH SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS AS TEMPS REMAIN IN THE TEENS THIS
MORN. ONE POSITIVE IS THAT THE LOW DENSITY SLOW WILL BRING A LITTLE
LESS IMPACT TO AREA ROADS.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FOR THE PLAINS TODAY...AS VERY COLD AIR IN
PLACE IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...AND WITH PRECIP THERE WILL BE
LITTLE WARM UP. MAY EVEN BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH MID 20S FOR
THE KPUB AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE 30S...AND THE HIGH VALLEYS COULD EVEN SEE SOME 40S
TODAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE FINISHED BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS
TONIGHT COULD REALLY DROP IF THERE IS SOME CLEARING GIVEN THE SNOW
COVER...SO WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT
MAY STILL BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHSN
OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE...LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY QUIET ALBEIT COLD
NIGHT. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
...WX COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING THIS PERIOD...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW TO
MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTNS. ONE DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO BE A BIT
STRONGER...AND MAY BRING SOME SNOW TO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
MON...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE C MTNS...IT WILL BE
DRY. TEMPS WILL RECOVER ON THE PLAINS WITH M50S MOST AREAS. COLDEST
READINGS WILL BE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WHERE M40S WILL OCCUR.
VALLEYS SHOULD SEE MAXES AOA 50F. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
MTNS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL FLOW ON THE PLAINS.
TUE...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL OVER THE C MTN AREAS.
TEMPS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS MAXES. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR E PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BE 5F WARMER THAN
MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR TUE EVE IN THE C MTNS
WHERE 2-3"INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME CONFLICTING
DATA ON HOW STRONG THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE. LATEST 06Z GFS IS QUITE
A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND SHOWS PRECIP LASTING
ACROSS THE E PLAINS TUE NITE AND INTO EARLY WED. LATEST 06Z
NAM...AND 00Z EC SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. FOR NOW LEANED
TOWARD THE EC GUIDANCE. I SHOULD NOTE THAT *IF* THE GFS
VERIFIES...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY SNOW/WIND OVER FAR SE CO
LATE TUE NITE/WED MORNING.
WED...MAX TEMPS WILL WARM UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION WED AS
COMPARED TO TUE. IT WILL BE DRY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NOTE THAT IF
THE LATEST 06Z GFS DOES VERIFY...THEN IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON WED
THAN WHAT CURRENT NDFD INDICATES.
THU...MAINLY DRY AND WARM THIS DAY. HIGHS APPROACHING 70F I-25
CORRIDOR REGION. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE C MTNS THU NITE AND SNOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE.
FRI INTO SAT...COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH REGION EARLY IN DAY
FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS ON THE PLAINS ARE PRGD TO BE IN THE 55-60F
RANGE AND THESE MAXES MAY BE OPTIMISTIC...AND WILL OCCUR EARLY IN
THE DAY. REGION WIDE MTN SNOWS/LOWER ELEVATION RAINS WILL CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW LATE. EC GUIDANCE MOST INTENSE WITH THIS STORM AS IT
FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS WHILE GFS A BIT MORE OPENED.
I SHOULD NOTE THAT THE 06Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS...SO IT IS TRENDING TOWARDS THE EC
SOLUTION. IF EC VERIFIES...THEN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY E FACING
SLOPES OF S MTNS/RATON MESA REGION WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SNOW FRI NITE INTO EARLY SAT.
GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW INTO MARCH...I WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED
IF THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS VERIFY WITH THESE INCOMING WX SYSTEMS.
HPC GUIDANCE HAS 0.25 TO 0.75" OF PRECIP OVER A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. /HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
MORNING AT KPUB AND KCOS. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL FALL TODAY...WITH KCOS ON THE NRN FRINGES OF
WHERE THE ACCUMULATING SNOW DEVELOPS. COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AT KCOS AFTER 18Z TODAY...WHILE KPUB IS MORE LIKELY TO
REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE DAY AS SNOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE SE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME PATCHY
FG OR BR IS ALSO A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KPUB THROUGH MON MORNING.
KALS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PERIODS OF IFR THIS MORNING IN SN OR MIXED
PRECIP THROUGH 18-19Z...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ067-
071>075-079-080-086>089-093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ094>099.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
253 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...LATEST RUC13 500MB PLOT WAS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS...ORIENTED SW TO NE...CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED EAST AND
AWAY FROM FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING TO AN
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. WINDS AT THE SURFACE STILL NORTH TO NORTHEAST CAPE CANAVERAL
NORTH AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE DOWN TO JUPITER INLET
AS THE PERSISTENT INVERTED TROUGHING EAST OF FLORIDA SLOWLY
FLATTENS. PLENTY OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCU OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
MOSTLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 ON LAND PER VISIBLE SATELLITE. LITTLE
IF ANY PRECIP IN THE STABLE MARINE AIR MASS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
OVERLAND.
TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
CROSSES OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR
SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECOUPLING OF THE LOWEST LAYERS
AND THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS
ABOVE THE LOWEST FEW HUNDREDS OF FEET SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH OF A WIND FOR SOUTH TO
NORTH MOVING STRATUS TO FORM TOWARD SUNRISE AND LAST UNTIL MID
MORNING OR WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT AND THE LOWEST LEVEL WIND
FIELDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE INLAND VOLUSIA
ORANGE COUNTIES WESTWARD IF THE WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH OR CALM LONG
ENOUGH FOR THE LOWEST LAYERS TO SATURATE AND NOT BE MIXED A LOT.
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE LOW STRATUS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST BREVARD SOUTH.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TOO LATE TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE AFTERNOON ONWARD AS AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER
THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST U.S. PULLS GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. WARM TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
80S BASICALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR AND LOW 80S NORTH
OF I 4 INCLUDING COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY.
MON NIGHT/TUE...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL FL BY TUE
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT SO WILL MAINTAIN
20 POPS MAINLY ORLANDO/CAPE NORTHWARD MON NIGHT. AT LEAST THERE
WILL BE CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY TUE MORNING WHICH SHOULD BE SLOW TO LIFT. SO THIS WILL
HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS
THE NORTH BY A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT RAISED TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH (AROUND LAKE O) INTO THE MID 80S WHERE GOOD HEATING SHOULD
OCCUR.
WEAK SFC LOW PRES WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TO
THE EAST OF FL TUE WHICH MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL PUSH SOUTHWARD.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE FCST OF SLGT CHC FOR SOME LOW TOPPED SHRA IN
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WHICH BRIDGES THE FRONT THROUGH TUE EVENING.
WED-THU...12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES ESP AT 500 MB (ECMWF HAS TRENDED DEEPER/STRONGER ONCE
AGAIN) BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM STILL
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA.
AS SFC LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WRN-CTRL GOMEX...ONSHORE WINDS
VEER FROM E-NE WED MORNING TO SE OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN. SFC LOW DEEPENS TO SUB-1010MB JUST SOUTH OF PENSACOLA
BY THU MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN (~1004MB) AS IT MOVES EWD
INTO THE FL BIG BAND BY SUNSET...THEN ACROSS THE STATE AND UP THE
EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD STARTING EARLY FRIDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY... COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS POINTS TO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF STRONG/SVR
STORMS IN THE THU AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DECENT CONSISTENCY/CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECM OVER
THE PAST 3 DAYS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN USUAL IN SOME MAGNITUDE
OF AN EVENT IMPACT...EVEN THOUGH IT IS 4 DAYS OUT.
FRI-SAT...LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER IN THE
DAY AS THEY UPPER SYSTEM RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. COOLER AND
DRIER WX WILL FOLLOW WITH TEMPS RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH 06-08Z PERIOD. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE FROM 08-13Z
BUT FEEL IT WILL BE MORE OF A LOW STRATUS...FL005-010...AS THE
LOWEST LAYERS SEPARATE FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS ABOVE THE INVERSIONS. STRATUS LIFTS MID MORNING. CUMULUS AND
STRATOCUMULUS INCREASES QUICKLY AFTER MID MORNING IN THE WARMING AND
INCREASING WINDS IN THE LOWER LAYERS.
&&
.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM
CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH START A SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FINALLY FLATTENS THE INVERTED
TROUGH THAT WAS SITTING OVER THE WATERS EAST OF FLORIDA THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. A FEW SHOWERS AS WARMER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RIDES
OVER SHALLOW COOLER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. SHOULD LAST UNTIL THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM.
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AS THE WESTERN PART OF THE HIGH SLIDES OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE FRONT MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
WESTERN PANHANDLE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS WINDS.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CRITERIA...15 TO 20 KNOTS...OFFSHORE LATE MORNING AND IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TUE-FRI...COOL FRONT LIMPS INTO THE ADJACENT ATLC WATERS BY EARLY
TUE AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY WED...BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH WED NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SOME MODERATE NORTH FLOW COULD REACH THE VOLUSIA
WATERS TUE...AND NE FLOW WED...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE SEAS
REMAIN IN THE 3-5FT RANGE THRU WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
THU AS S/SW WINDS INCREASE WITH POTENTIAL FOR BAND OF FAST-
MOVING STRONG STORMS MOVING EWD OFF THE FL PENINSULA THU
AFTN/EVENING. WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THU INTO FRI.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 59 83 59 73 / 10 10 20 20
MCO 59 84 61 80 / 0 10 20 20
MLB 64 83 62 79 / 10 10 10 20
VRB 61 83 60 81 / 10 10 10 20
LEE 59 83 59 78 / 0 10 20 20
SFB 60 84 61 78 / 0 10 20 20
ORL 61 83 62 79 / 0 10 20 20
FPR 60 83 59 82 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WIMMER/KELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1155 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1025 AM CST
HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY EARLY FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT LAKE AND
PORTER COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THAT AREA.
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD
3 TO 4.5 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS MOVED EAST. THE
DRIVING JET STREAM TO LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL ALSO HAS INCHED ITS WAY
SOUTH WITH BETTER ASCENT NOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WHILE
SYNOPTIC SHOW COULD SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW ENTERING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...MUCH OF THAT SNOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA. COULD BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS WITH THE 20
MPH GUSTS WITHIN THE SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
A PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING INTO NORTHEAST LAKE AND NORTHWEST PORTER COUNTIES IN
INDIANA ENHANCED TOTALS IN ISOLATED AREAS TO OVER ONE HALF
FOOT...WITH THE LATEST REPORT OF 9.8 INCHES IN PORTAGE. THE BAND
HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE ILL-DEFINED...BUT THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH
CONVERGENCE FROM MID-LAKE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA CONTINUES. A
MESO-LOW PRESENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
EAST OF THE IL/WI STATE LINE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AS
WELL...AND MAY HELP TO RE-FOCUS/RE-INTENSIFY THE ONGOING LIGHT
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS POSSIBLY PUSH THEM BACK WEST SOMEWHAT. HAVE
A 1-3 INCH RANGE FORECAST NEAR THE LAKE IN INDIANA TODAY INTO
THIS EVE. THE 12Z NAM DOES HAVE ANOTHER MESO-LOW DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MI. CONVERGENCE
LOOKS TO BE DROPPING QUICKLY BY MORNING SO UNSURE HOW WELL-
ORGANIZED THAT WOULD BE.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
342 AM CST
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE ONGOING SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE
SNOW EVENT IS PLAYING OUT LARGELY AS ANTICIPATED. AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...THE BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA. AS OF 3AM CST...THE SNOW HAS ENDED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC BAND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SOUTH CHICAGO TO LA SALLE/PERU WITH SOME
LIGHTER SNOW STILL FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AND AS FAR WEST AS DE KALB AND THE MENDOTA
METRO AREA.
THE SHORT TERM...HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECT THE MAIN BAROCLINIC BAND TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH...WITH MUCH OF THE STEADIER SNOW COMING TO AN
END NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES COULD LINGER NORTH OF I-80 THIS MORNING...BUT FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE DOME. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE EFFECT PLUME
TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LATER TODAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT
WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP AND VERY COLD AIR
OVERSPREADING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MARGINALLY ADEQUATE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...SUGGESTS THAT THE A CONVERGENCE BAND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE LAKE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
CHANCE POPS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO
THE LAKE AS IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT ANY LAKE PLUME THAT DOES
DEVELOP COULD MEANDER AROUND...BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO AREAS OF FAR NERN IL AND NWRN IN. AN ACCUMULATIONS
THAT SO OCCUR SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ON THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH.
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...EXPECT THAT THE STEADY
MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND EVEN
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA.
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A RENSSELAER COULD
SEE UPWARDS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
HEAVIER BANDING MAY SET UP. LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH SHOULD END OF
WITH WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCH TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS EVENT.
AS THE SNOW WINDS DOWN...THE FORECAST CONCERN WILL SHIFT TO
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUING TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND THEN BECOME STEADY...WITH NO AFTERNOON WARMING...REMAINING
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
PERHAPS ONLY AS HIGH AS THE LOW TEENS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SPREADS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP WELL BELOW 0F
AWAY FROM THE URBANIZED AREAS OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...THOUGH
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR IN EAST CENTRAL IL AND NWRN IN
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL STILL BE TO THE WEST...CENTERED OVER
IOWA...THERE WILL STILL BE A WEAK NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO..WHILE THE LIGHT
WIND WILL LIMIT THE EFFECTS OF RADIATIVE COOLING...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY DROP TO -5F TO -10F WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND
THE I-55 CORRIDOR...WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO DROP WIND CHILL
READING TO -20 TO -25F. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THESE AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS
HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND TO NERN CONUS BY
TUESDAY...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS...WITH SOME
MODERATION INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S BY THURSDAY. SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE AROUND 40F FOR EARLY MARCH. AS A
DEEP UPPER LOW SITS OVER NERN CANADA AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN...FAST NWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SET UP...BRINGING A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES OUT OF
CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES,
WHILE THE GREATEST FORCING WITH THESE WEAK IMPULSES WILL FOCUS ALONG
A TRACK NORTH OF THE CWA...THERE WILL STILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A WARMING
TREND FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
AND WARM ADVECTION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC MAY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F. UNFORTUNATELY...
THIS WARMUP WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AS THE THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING OUT OF CANADA...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH HIGHS BY NEXT SATURDAY BACK IN THE LOW 30S.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NORTHWEST WINDS ARND 10-14KT FROM 330-350 DEG. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
TURN 310-330 DEG ARND DAYBREAK MON.
* PATCHY MVFR CIGS FOR MDW AIRFIELD THRU 20Z...THEN IMPROVING.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST STRETCHES
EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A
CLEARING IN THE SKY COVER TO NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS.
THERE REMAINS SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS FOR AIRFIELDS NEAREST TO LAKE
MICHIGAN...DUE PRIMARILY TO SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/FLURRIES/LIGHT
SNOW THAT CONTINUES. BUT THIS MAINLY IS FOCUSED IN NORTHWEST IN
AND IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH ARND 330-360
WITH SPEEDS HOVERING ARND 10-14KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY TURN TO NORTHWEST ARND DAYBREAK MON.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER...IT APPEARS THE BULK
OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE JUST CIRRUS AT BEST OVERNIGHT. SO MAINLY
EXPECT VFR CONDS TO DOMINATE THE TAFS.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODIC LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CST
A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHED FROM ALBERTA TO THE
CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD AND BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST BY MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY BUT
LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES MAY PLAY HAVOC WITH THE SPEED AND DIRECTION
DETAILS THROUGH THAT TIME. CONVERGENCE IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE LAKE
THIS MORNING WITH A NARROW PLUME OF SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
THIS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE MAY BE A CIRCULATION THAT WORKS
ITS WAY DOWN THE LAKE LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT AT A MINIMUM WIND SPEED WILL INCREASE ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF
THE CONVERGENT AXIS POTENTIALLY LEADING TO 25-30 KT GUSTS...WITH ANY
CIRCULATION COMPLICATING THE DIRECTION FORECAST. WILL GO AHEAD AND
CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
OCCURRING ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORELINE ALREADY THIS MORNING. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE DIRECTION SOUTHWEST THEN WEST FOR A TIME TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE LAKE TUESDAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
DOWN THE LAKE AT THAT TIME WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADING INTO
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SHIFT TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1129 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
Some adjustments to the headlines were made a few hours ago,
dropping the winter weather advisory across the northern third of
the CWA. Have held onto the remaining headlines for now.
Initial batch of precipitation has largely moved out of the area,
but continues in the southeast CWA late this morning. Had a fair
amount of sleet and freezing rain across that area earlier. LAPS
soundings for Lawrenceville shows a warmer layer at 800 mb around
+2C, which the RAP projects to last a few more hours, so
additional sleet/snow mix still possible into early afternoon
there. The RAP and HRRR also track some heavier bands of snow
along the I-70 corridor this afternoon, while the NAM has the band
closer to I-72. The trajectory of the snow across northern
Missouri would currently favor areas in between these two
interstates. Have updated the forecast to reflect another 2-3
inches in that area, and sharpened up the northern edge of the
precipitation chances this afternoon.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1128 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
Next wave of light snow spreading across the KSPI-KCMI corridor
early this afternoon. Will be some periods of MVFR conditions
associated with this snow, especially in areas just south of these
sites, while VFR conditions prevail further north. A general
clearing trend from the northwest will take place this evening.
North winds of 10-15 knots expected to persist much of the
forecast period, finally tailing off a bit by late Monday morning
as high pressure builds into the central Plains.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 246 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
SHORT TERM...Today and tonight
Snow band at 08Z/2AM had shifted south into much of central IL
along and north of I-72. Visibilities generally 1-2 miles with
brief reductions to a half mile. Have had a few very early morning
reports of 2-3 inches over the northern CWA where snow has been
falling for 6+ hours. Zone of mid level frontogenesis will
gradually sink south this morning with snow overspreading most of
the area through mid morning. Some enhanced bands noted in
northern MO associated with a shortwave and stronger lift,
dropping visibilities to a half mile, so accumulations up to a
half inch per hour possible at times past daybreak. Convective
elements noted on radar mosaic in srn/central MO which will spread
into areas south of I-70 likely as a mix of freezing rain and sleet.
Deep Arctic air filtering in off strong 1040 mb high over northern
Plains looks to shut down precip over the northern CWA later this
morning, with a possible lull for much of the area until a second
shortwave brings another round of snow to areas mainly south of
I-72 this afternoon. Forecast soundings continue to indicate a
warm wedge at 750 mb south of a Shelbyville to Paris line, which
would allow sleet to mix with snow north of I-70, and with a
deeper warm layer south of I-70, sleet and freezing rain look likely.
In this area colder air will gradually change precip over to snow
during the evening. The final, and strongest shortwave lifting out
of the Plains trough brings more significant snow accumulations
just south of the CWA overnight, with the northern fringe of
better lift keeping light to moderate snow over the far south past
06Z/midnight.
Overall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches look reasonable, with
locally higher amounts if better banding develops. Thus will keep
current advisory going, ending at 00Z/Mon with good model
agreement on quicker precip shutdown here. Farther south, snow
amounts alone would not justify keeping the warning going. However
with potential ice accumulations near a quarter inch south of
I-70, and sleet near 0.5 inch north to Shelbyville/Paris line, the
current warning will continue through tonight.
LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday
Arctic high settles toward the region Monday, bringing dry but very
cold weather. -10 to -14C 850 mb temps and fresh snow cover
suggest record lows quite possible Monday morning, and with highs
only reaching the teens, record low highs also possible. See
climate section below for specifics. With the center of the high
still to our west early, brisk northwest winds will likely require
wind chill advisory for the northwest half of the CWA. Will not
address this until current winter headlines expire. As the high
shifts east on Tuesday a gradual warming trend begins. Several
weak shortwaves passing through in northwest flow will bring
periods of light snow to parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes.
However with poor consistency on timing/location and overall dry
air mass will keep pops to slight chance. Mid level winds become
more zonal by mid to late week, and with rising heights temps
should rebound back closer to normal by Friday. Split flow keeps
main waves well to our north and south during this period. However
by late Friday and Saturday the next shortwave and frontal system
shifting east from the Plains will bring a chance of light rain or
snow to the region.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ054>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR
ILZ040>053.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1028 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1025 AM CST
HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY EARLY FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT LAKE AND
PORTER COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THAT AREA.
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD
3 TO 4.5 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS MOVED EAST. THE
DRIVING JET STREAM TO LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL ALSO HAS INCHED ITS WAY
SOUTH WITH BETTER ASCENT NOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WHILE
SYNOPTIC SHOW COULD SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW ENTERING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...MUCH OF THAT SNOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA. COULD BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS WITH THE 20
MPH GUSTS WITHIN THE SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
A PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING INTO NORTHEAST LAKE AND NORTHWEST PORTER COUNTIES IN
INDIANA ENHANCED TOTALS IN ISOLATED AREAS TO OVER ONE HALF
FOOT...WITH THE LATEST REPORT OF 9.8 INCHES IN PORTAGE. THE BAND
HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE ILL-DEFINED...BUT THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH
CONVERGENCE FROM MID-LAKE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA CONTINUES. A
MESO-LOW PRESENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
EAST OF THE IL/WI STATE LINE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AS
WELL...AND MAY HELP TO RE-FOCUS/RE-INTENSIFY THE ONGOING LIGHT
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS POSSIBLY PUSH THEM BACK WEST SOMEWHAT. HAVE
A 1-3 INCH RANGE FORECAST NEAR THE LAKE IN INDIANA TODAY INTO
THIS EVE. THE 12Z NAM DOES HAVE ANOTHER MESO-LOW DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MI. CONVERGENCE
LOOKS TO BE DROPPING QUICKLY BY MORNING SO UNSURE HOW WELL-
ORGANIZED THAT WOULD BE.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
342 AM CST
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE ONGOING SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE
SNOW EVENT IS PLAYING OUT LARGELY AS ANTICIPATED. AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...THE BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA. AS OF 3AM CST...THE SNOW HAS ENDED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD AREA. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC BAND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SOUTH CHICAGO TO LA SALLE/PERU WITH SOME
LIGHTER SNOW STILL FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AND AS FAR WEST AS DE KALB AND THE MENDOTA
METRO AREA.
THE SHORT TERM...HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECT THE MAIN BAROCLINIC BAND TO CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH...WITH MUCH OF THE STEADIER SNOW COMING TO AN
END NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES COULD LINGER NORTH OF I-80 THIS MORNING...BUT FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE DOME. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE EFFECT PLUME
TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LATER TODAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT
WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP AND VERY COLD AIR
OVERSPREADING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MARGINALLY ADEQUATE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...SUGGESTS THAT THE A CONVERGENCE BAND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE LAKE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
CHANCE POPS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO
THE LAKE AS IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT ANY LAKE PLUME THAT DOES
DEVELOP COULD MEANDER AROUND...BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO AREAS OF FAR NERN IL AND NWRN IN. AN ACCUMULATIONS
THAT SO OCCUR SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ON THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH.
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...EXPECT THAT THE STEADY
MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND EVEN
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA.
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A RENSSELAER COULD
SEE UPWARDS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
HEAVIER BANDING MAY SET UP. LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH SHOULD END OF
WITH WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCH TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS EVENT.
AS THE SNOW WINDS DOWN...THE FORECAST CONCERN WILL SHIFT TO
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUING TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND THEN BECOME STEADY...WITH NO AFTERNOON WARMING...REMAINING
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
PERHAPS ONLY AS HIGH AS THE LOW TEENS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SPREADS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP WELL BELOW 0F
AWAY FROM THE URBANIZED AREAS OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...THOUGH
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR IN EAST CENTRAL IL AND NWRN IN
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL STILL BE TO THE WEST...CENTERED OVER
IOWA...THERE WILL STILL BE A WEAK NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO..WHILE THE LIGHT
WIND WILL LIMIT THE EFFECTS OF RADIATIVE COOLING...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY DROP TO -5F TO -10F WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND
THE I-55 CORRIDOR...WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO DROP WIND CHILL
READING TO -20 TO -25F. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THESE AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS
HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND TO NERN CONUS BY
TUESDAY...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS...WITH SOME
MODERATION INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S BY THURSDAY. SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE AROUND 40F FOR EARLY MARCH. AS A
DEEP UPPER LOW SITS OVER NERN CANADA AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN...FAST NWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SET UP...BRINGING A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES OUT OF
CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES,
WHILE THE GREATEST FORCING WITH THESE WEAK IMPULSES WILL FOCUS ALONG
A TRACK NORTH OF THE CWA...THERE WILL STILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A WARMING
TREND FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
AND WARM ADVECTION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC MAY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F. UNFORTUNATELY...
THIS WARMUP WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AS THE THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING OUT OF CANADA...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH HIGHS BY NEXT SATURDAY BACK IN THE LOW 30S.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SCT-BKN MVFR SKIES
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
* WINDS BETWEEN 330-350 DEG AND SPEEDS 10-15KT THRU THE DAY.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
BANDS OF SNOW CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE BACK EDGE
FINALLY WORKING ACROSS THE CHICAGO TERMINALS. HAD SEEN NEW
DEVELOPMENT ON THIS BACK EDGE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE
FORCING WHICH HELPED DRIVE THAT IS OFF TO THE EAST SO AM EXPECTING
THAT THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END AT ORD/MDW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. GYY MAY REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THE SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING
SO WILL CARRY LIGHT SNOW THERE WITH MINIMAL VSBY RESTRICTION BY
MID MORNING. A NARROW BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES NEAR THE
LAKE AND PORTER COUNTY INDIANA BORDER NEAR OR JUST WEST OF BURNS
HARBOR AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE DAY AS IT MAY TRY
TO MEANDER WESTWARD TOWARDS GYY. AM THINKING THIS IS A PRETTY LOW
CHANCE BUT SHOULD A SMALL SCALE LOW DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE AND MOVE
SOUTHWARD THE BAND COULD BE PUSHED BACK TOWARDS GYY AND PERHAPS TO
THE ILLINOIS SHORELINE. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTH WITH THE SNOW WITH RECENT TRENDS SUPPORTING THIS. THIS WILL
LEAVE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE THE MID
CLOUD COVER EXIT AROUND MIDDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME MVFR
LEVEL STRATOCU COULD DEVELOP FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT HAVE A
GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN EASING OF SPEEDS
TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING FORECAST.
MDB/BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODIC LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
240 AM CST
A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHED FROM ALBERTA TO THE
CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD AND BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST BY MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY BUT
LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES MAY PLAY HAVOC WITH THE SPEED AND DIRECTION
DETAILS THROUGH THAT TIME. CONVERGENCE IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE LAKE
THIS MORNING WITH A NARROW PLUME OF SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
THIS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE MAY BE A CIRCULATION THAT WORKS
ITS WAY DOWN THE LAKE LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT AT A MINIMUM WIND SPEED WILL INCREASE ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF
THE CONVERGENT AXIS POTENTIALLY LEADING TO 25-30 KT GUSTS...WITH ANY
CIRCULATION COMPLICATING THE DIRECTION FORECAST. WILL GO AHEAD AND
CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
OCCURRING ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORELINE ALREADY THIS MORNING. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE DIRECTION SOUTHWEST THEN WEST FOR A TIME TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE LAKE TUESDAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
DOWN THE LAKE AT THAT TIME WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADING INTO
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SHIFT TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1017 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
Some adjustments to the headlines were made a few hours ago,
dropping the winter weather advisory across the northern third of
the CWA. Have held onto the remaining headlines for now.
Initial batch of precipitation has largely moved out of the area,
but continues in the southeast CWA late this morning. Had a fair
amount of sleet and freezing rain across that area earlier. LAPS
soundings for Lawrenceville shows a warmer layer at 800 mb around
+2C, which the RAP projects to last a few more hours, so
additional sleet/snow mix still possible into early afternoon
there. The RAP and HRRR also track some heavier bands of snow
along the I-70 corridor this afternoon, while the NAM has the band
closer to I-72. The trajectory of the snow across northern
Missouri would currently favor areas in between these two
interstates. Have updated the forecast to reflect another 2-3
inches in that area, and sharpened up the northern edge of the
precipitation chances this afternoon.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
The initial wave of precipitation is beginning to diminish from NW
to SE, as the first upper wave departs toward Indiana. There will
be a break in the snowfall for all the TAF sites beginning by 13z
for PIA and SPI and by 15z for CMI. The high resolution guidance
is still indicating another push of precipitation this afternoon
affecting areas generally along and south of I-72. This may bring
another period of light snow to SPI and DEC, but little additional
accumulation is expected this afternoon toward I-72 and our
southern terminal sites. The bulk of any precip this afternoon
should remain farther south of I-70.
Clouds should improve to VFR shortly after the snow ends this
morning, and remain VFR for the rest of the TAF period. There is a
chance that the shortwave this afternoon could produce some MVFR
clouds for SPI and DEC, and we included some MVFR at SPI for now.
VFR conditions will prevail everywhere by evening and continue
overnight.
Winds will be gusty from the north today as high pressure advances
into IL from the NW. Steady winds in the 15-17kt range with gusts
to 25kt at times. Winds will diminish this evening but could
remain in the 10-13kt range at least through the evening.
Shimon
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 246 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
SHORT TERM...Today and tonight
Snow band at 08Z/2AM had shifted south into much of central IL
along and north of I-72. Visibilities generally 1-2 miles with
brief reductions to a half mile. Have had a few very early morning
reports of 2-3 inches over the northern CWA where snow has been
falling for 6+ hours. Zone of mid level frontogenesis will
gradually sink south this morning with snow overspreading most of
the area through mid morning. Some enhanced bands noted in
northern MO associated with a shortwave and stronger lift,
dropping visibilities to a half mile, so accumulations up to a
half inch per hour possible at times past daybreak. Convective
elements noted on radar mosaic in srn/central MO which will spread
into areas south of I-70 likely as a mix of freezing rain and sleet.
Deep Arctic air filtering in off strong 1040 mb high over northern
Plains looks to shut down precip over the northern CWA later this
morning, with a possible lull for much of the area until a second
shortwave brings another round of snow to areas mainly south of
I-72 this afternoon. Forecast soundings continue to indicate a
warm wedge at 750 mb south of a Shelbyville to Paris line, which
would allow sleet to mix with snow north of I-70, and with a
deeper warm layer south of I-70, sleet and freezing rain look likely.
In this area colder air will gradually change precip over to snow
during the evening. The final, and strongest shortwave lifting out
of the Plains trough brings more significant snow accumulations
just south of the CWA overnight, with the northern fringe of
better lift keeping light to moderate snow over the far south past
06Z/midnight.
Overall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches look reasonable, with
locally higher amounts if better banding develops. Thus will keep
current advisory going, ending at 00Z/Mon with good model
agreement on quicker precip shutdown here. Farther south, snow
amounts alone would not justify keeping the warning going. However
with potential ice accumulations near a quarter inch south of
I-70, and sleet near 0.5 inch north to Shelbyville/Paris line, the
current warning will continue through tonight.
LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday
Arctic high settles toward the region Monday, bringing dry but very
cold weather. -10 to -14C 850 mb temps and fresh snow cover
suggest record lows quite possible Monday morning, and with highs
only reaching the teens, record low highs also possible. See
climate section below for specifics. With the center of the high
still to our west early, brisk northwest winds will likely require
wind chill advisory for the northwest half of the CWA. Will not
address this until current winter headlines expire. As the high
shifts east on Tuesday a gradual warming trend begins. Several
weak shortwaves passing through in northwest flow will bring
periods of light snow to parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes.
However with poor consistency on timing/location and overall dry
air mass will keep pops to slight chance. Mid level winds become
more zonal by mid to late week, and with rising heights temps
should rebound back closer to normal by Friday. Split flow keeps
main waves well to our north and south during this period. However
by late Friday and Saturday the next shortwave and frontal system
shifting east from the Plains will bring a chance of light rain or
snow to the region.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ054>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR
ILZ040>053.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
332 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
TODAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA...WHILE SNOW WILL BE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
RADAR MOSAIC AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF AN APPROXIMATE SULLIVAN TO SHELBYVILLE
LINE. DRY AIR IS WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AND SHORT TERM
MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A BREAK IN THE SOLID AREA OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ANOTHER SOLID AREA OF PRECIP MOVING IN
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 19-21Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET TO MIX IN WILL CONTINUE AT KBMG SO ADDED A
CHANCE FOR THIS BACK IN FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CATEGORICAL
SNOW. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL TO STICK AROUND
AWHILE LONGER HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX IN THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. KEPT
CATEGORICAL POPS GOING IN THE SOUTH WITH THE SOLID PRECIP SHIELD SO
CLOSE ALTHOUGH THEY COULD ALSO SEE BRIEF BREAKS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS WELL. IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
FAVORING THE ENTRENCHMENT OF THE DRY AIR AND AWAY FROM ANY SORT OF
CONTINUED PRECIP SO DROPPED POPS THERE TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CANCELLED THE ADVISORY. THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY ALSO STRUGGLE
TO SEE MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LOCATION OF
THE SNOW BANDS IN THE RAPID UPDATE MODELS BUT CLOSE ENOUGH CALL AT
THIS POINT TO KEEP WARNING GOING AND REEVALUATE LATER AS THE SNOW
BANDS DEVELOP AND LOCATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR. RIGHT NOW RAP AND
HRRR ARE SHOWING A MID AFTERNOON BAND AND THEN ANOTHER BAND IN THE
EVENING WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SO TRENDED
IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE POPS BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO DROP THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES JUST YET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT AS THE STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS QUICKLY INTO
KENTUCKY. BEST FORCING AS SEEN BY THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION REMAINS ACROSS KENTUCKY...CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THAT AT TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER 00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THUS WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z
MONDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD MIXING OVER THE FRESH SNOW. WILL USE A BLEND
ON LOWS.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE QUICK FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL SURELY BRING A FEW CI PASSING FROM TIME TO TIME
IN THE FLOW. GOOD MID LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THUS WILL AIM
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS ON MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN PLACE MONDAY AND THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL TREND MONDAY HIGHS AND MONDAY NIGHTS LOWS COOLER THAN MAVMOS.
ON TUESDAY THE COLD AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AS 850MB
TEMPS HOLD AROUND -8C. MAVMOS HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
APPEAR TOO WARM GIVEN THIS SET-UP AND WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THEN.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD ARCTIC AIR LOOK TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM HERE STILL LOOKS
TOO COLD WHILE THE GFS 850MB TEMPS TRY AND MODERATE WARMER. WILL
USE A BLEND ON TUESDAY HIGHS AND STICK CLOSE TO MEXMOS FOR LOWS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND. PREFER THE GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES
PLACEMENT OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE RIDGING LINGERS
BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THEN TRACKS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC...THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND ENABLE A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE
POPS...WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS SUPPORTING POTENTIALLY A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO RETURN WITH DRY
WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
COLD START TO THE EXTENDED WITH A STEADY WARMUP INTO THE 40S FOR
MANY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT CERTAINLY MUCH MORE PLEASANT THAN
RECENT TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 022100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
CHANGED PREVAILING CEILINGS TO MVFR BASED ON TRENDS AND UPSTREAM
OBS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WORTH NOTING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO THIS EVENING...IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY MONDAY.
COMPLEX AND STRUNG OUT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST AREA IN A LULL CURRENTLY AS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.
NEXT WAVE GATHERING STRENGTH WITH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT FROM MISSOURI
EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL EXPAND
E/NE AND IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 BY MID AFTERNOON
WITH A RENEWED BOUT OF SNOW AT KBMG/KHUF/KIND. IMPACTS LIKELY TO
BE GREATER AT KBMG AND KHUF WITH POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES TO
DROP BELOW 1SM. IN ADDITION WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STILL A BIT
STRONGER AT KBMG...MAY SEE SLEET OCCASIONALLY MIX IN THERE BEFORE
THE COLDER AIR TAKES HOLD BY LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW IS DONE AT
KLAF...BUT DO EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO WORK BACK INTO THE TERMINAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND SPORADIC GUSTS INTO THE 20-25KT
RANGE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SECONDARY WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY EARLY EVENING
WITH SNOW BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED. YET ANOTHER SURGE
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN INDIANA BY LATE EVENING MAY
BRING LIGHT SNOW AT KBMG...OTHERWISE EXPECT SNOW TO END IN THE
03-06Z TIME PERIOD AS THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE HIGH EXPANDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS DRY OUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH A MID LEVEL DECK BECOMING
PREDOMINANT. AS THIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING...SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. NORTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 10KTS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ036-037-
039>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
TODAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA...WHILE SNOW WILL BE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
RADAR MOSAIC AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF AN APPROXIMATE SULLIVAN TO SHELBYVILLE
LINE. DRY AIR IS WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AND SHORT TERM
MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A BREAK IN THE SOLID AREA OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ANOTHER SOLID AREA OF PRECIP MOVING IN
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 19-21Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET TO MIX IN WILL CONTINUE AT KBMG SO ADDED A
CHANCE FOR THIS BACK IN FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CATEGORICAL SNOW.
WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL TO STICK AROUND AWHILE
LONGER HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX IN THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. KEPT CATEGORICAL
POPS GOING IN THE SOUTH WITH THE SOLID PRECIP SHIELD SO CLOSE
ALTHOUGH THEY COULD ALSO SEE BRIEF BREAKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS WELL. IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
FAVORING THE ENTRENCHMENT OF THE DRY AIR AND AWAY FROM ANY SORT OF
CONTINUED PRECIP SO DROPPED POPS THERE TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CANCELLED THE ADVISORY. THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY ALSO
STRUGGLE TO SEE MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE
LOCATION OF THE SNOW BANDS IN THE RAPID UPDATE MODELS BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT TO KEEP WARNING GOING AND REEVALUATE
LATER AS THE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP AND LOCATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
RIGHT NOW RAP AND HRRR ARE SHOWING A MID AFTERNOON BAND AND THEN
ANOTHER BAND IN THE EVENING WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 SO TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE POPS BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DROP THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES JUST YET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT AS THE STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS QUICKLY INTO
KENTUCKY. BEST FORCING AS SEEN BY THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION REMAINS ACROSS KENTUCKY...CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THAT AT TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER 00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THUS WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z
MONDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD MIXING OVER THE FRESH SNOW. WILL USE A BLEND
ON LOWS.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE QUICK FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL SURELY BRING A FEW CI PASSING FROM TIME TO TIME
IN THE FLOW. GOOD MID LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THUS WILL AIM
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS ON MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN PLACE MONDAY AND THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL TREND MONDAY HIGHS AND MONDAY NIGHTS LOWS COOLER THAN MAVMOS.
ON TUESDAY THE COLD AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AS 850MB
TEMPS HOLD AROUND -8C. MAVMOS HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
APPEAR TOO WARM GIVEN THIS SET-UP AND WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THEN.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD ARCTIC AIR LOOK TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM HERE STILL LOOKS
TOO COLD WHILE THE GFS 850MB TEMPS TRY AND MODERATE WARMER. WILL
USE A BLEND ON TUESDAY HIGHS AND STICK CLOSE TO MEXMOS FOR LOWS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND. PREFER THE GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES
PLACEMENT OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE RIDGING LINGERS
BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THEN TRACKS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC...THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND ENABLE A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE
POPS...WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS SUPPORTING POTENTIALLY A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO RETURN WITH DRY
WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
COLD START TO THE EXTENDED WITH A STEADY WARMUP INTO THE 40S FOR
MANY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT CERTAINLY MUCH MORE PLEASANT THAN
RECENT TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO THIS EVENING...IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY MONDAY.
COMPLEX AND STRUNG OUT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST AREA IN A LULL CURRENTLY AS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.
NEXT WAVE GATHERING STRENGTH WITH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT FROM MISSOURI
EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL EXPAND
E/NE AND IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 BY MID AFTERNOON
WITH A RENEWED BOUT OF SNOW AT KBMG/KHUF/KIND. IMPACTS LIKELY TO
BE GREATER AT KBMG AND KHUF WITH POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES TO
DROP BELOW 1SM. IN ADDITION WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STILL A BIT
STRONGER AT KBMG...MAY SEE SLEET OCCASIONALLY MIX IN THERE BEFORE
THE COLDER AIR TAKES HOLD BY LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW IS DONE AT
KLAF...BUT DO EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO WORK BACK INTO THE TERMINAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND SPORADIC GUSTS INTO THE 20-25KT
RANGE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SECONDARY WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY EARLY EVENING
WITH SNOW BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED. YET ANOTHER SURGE
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN INDIANA BY LATE EVENING MAY
BRING LIGHT SNOW AT KBMG...OTHERWISE EXPECT SNOW TO END IN THE
03-06Z TIME PERIOD AS THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE HIGH EXPANDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS DRY OUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH A MID LEVEL DECK BECOMING
PREDOMINANT. AS THIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING...SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. NORTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 10KTS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ036-037-
039>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1240 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
TODAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA...WHILE SNOW WILL BE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
CHANGE ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
RADAR MOSAIC AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF AN APPROXIMATE SULLIVAN TO SHELBYVILLE
LINE. DRY AIR IS WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AND SHORT TERM
MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A BREAK IN THE SOLID AREA OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ANOTHER SOLID AREA OF PRECIP MOVING IN
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 19-21Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET TO MIX IN WILL CONTINUE AT KBMG SO ADDED A
CHANCE FOR THIS BACK IN FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CATEGORICAL SNOW.
WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL TO STICK AROUND AWHILE
LONGER HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX IN THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. KEPT CATEGORICAL
POPS GOING IN THE SOUTH WITH THE SOLID PRECIP SHIELD SO CLOSE
ALTHOUGH THEY COULD ALSO SEE BRIEF BREAKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS WELL. IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
FAVORING THE ENTRENCHMENT OF THE DRY AIR AND AWAY FROM ANY SORT OF
CONTINUED PRECIP SO DROPPED POPS THERE TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CANCELLED THE ADVISORY. THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY ALSO
STRUGGLE TO SEE MORE MEASURABLE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE
LOCATION OF THE SNOW BANDS IN THE RAPID UPDATE MODELS BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT TO KEEP WARNING GOING AND REEVALUATE
LATER AS THE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP AND LOCATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
RIGHT NOW RAP AND HRRR ARE SHOWING A MID AFTERNOON BAND AND THEN
ANOTHER BAND IN THE EVENING WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 SO TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE POPS BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DROP THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES JUST YET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT AS THE STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS QUICKLY INTO
KENTUCKY. BEST FORCING AS SEEN BY THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION REMAINS ACROSS KENTUCKY...CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THAT AT TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER 00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THUS WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF SNOW FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z
MONDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD MIXING OVER THE FRESH SNOW. WILL USE A BLEND
ON LOWS.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE QUICK FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL SURELY BRING A FEW CI PASSING FROM TIME TO TIME
IN THE FLOW. GOOD MID LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THUS WILL AIM
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS ON MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN PLACE MONDAY AND THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL TREND MONDAY HIGHS AND MONDAY NIGHTS LOWS COOLER THAN MAVMOS.
ON TUESDAY THE COLD AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AS 850MB
TEMPS HOLD AROUND -8C. MAVMOS HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
APPEAR TOO WARM GIVEN THIS SET-UP AND WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THEN.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD ARCTIC AIR LOOK TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM HERE STILL LOOKS
TOO COLD WHILE THE GFS 850MB TEMPS TRY AND MODERATE WARMER. WILL
USE A BLEND ON TUESDAY HIGHS AND STICK CLOSE TO MEXMOS FOR LOWS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...AND A DEEP
CUT-OFF LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE DEEP SOUTH. ALL PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THOUGH. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...PARTIAL THICKNESSES ARE INDICATING
PRECIP PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH CAN
EXPECT ALL SNOW. WEAK WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH COURSE
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO THIS EVENING...IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY MONDAY.
COMPLEX AND STRUNG OUT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST AREA IN A LULL CURRENTLY AS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.
NEXT WAVE GATHERING STRENGTH WITH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT FROM MISSOURI
EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL EXPAND
E/NE AND IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 BY MID AFTERNOON
WITH A RENEWED BOUT OF SNOW AT KBMG/KHUF/KIND. IMPACTS LIKELY TO
BE GREATER AT KBMG AND KHUF WITH POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES TO
DROP BELOW 1SM. IN ADDITION WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT STILL A BIT
STRONGER AT KBMG...MAY SEE SLEET OCCASIONALLY MIX IN THERE BEFORE
THE COLDER AIR TAKES HOLD BY LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW IS DONE AT
KLAF...BUT DO EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO WORK BACK INTO THE TERMINAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND SPORADIC GUSTS INTO THE 20-25KT
RANGE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SECONDARY WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY EARLY EVENING
WITH SNOW BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED. YET ANOTHER SURGE
OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN INDIANA BY LATE EVENING MAY
BRING LIGHT SNOW AT KBMG...OTHERWISE EXPECT SNOW TO END IN THE
03-06Z TIME PERIOD AS THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE HIGH EXPANDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS DRY OUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH A MID LEVEL DECK BECOMING
PREDOMINANT. AS THIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING...SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. NORTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 10KTS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ036-037-
039>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1215 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
WIND CHILL VALUES GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
JUST A FEW SITES CURRENTLY AT MINIMUM CRITERIA OF -20. AS RESULT
HAVE LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE...FOR NOW. ANOTHER WIND
CHILL ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...AND WILL ADDRESSING THAT WITH THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
OTHERWISE...COULD BE CLOSE SHAVE FOR SOME SNOW IN FAR SOUTHERN
CWA AS NEXT ROUND OF FRONTOGENETICAL SNOW ENHANCED BY EJECTING
SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE SKIRTS MAINLY SOUTH OF CWA... ROUGHLY
NEAR/SOUTH OF CHILLICOTHE MO TO QUINCY IL LINE. DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER INCREASING IN DEPTH ON OCCASIONAL GUSTY NORTH WINDS
SUPPORTIVE OF KEEPING POPS IN JUST THE CHANCE CATEGORY VERY FAR
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SNOW HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND PUSHED WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW. THE 00Z ECMWF...GEM
AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST SNOW MAY RIPPLE BACK NORTH WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT ARRIVING OUT OF THE PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE GFS AND NAM KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH. THIS LATTER
SCENARIO LOOKS MORE LIKELY AS THE DEPTH OF THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY
CONFLUENT OVER THAT REGION.
HAVE THUS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL UPDATE
FORECAST WORDING FOR LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
REDEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY
AREA OVER EASTERN IA LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW...AND AT 6 AM IT WAS
OUTLINING WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -19 TO -25.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
LARGE AXIS OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO A
140 KT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SETTLE
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 3 AM...ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KEOSAUQUA THROUGH GALESBURG TO PRINCETON IL. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH WAS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS HIGH WERE IN THE
SUBZERO TEENS AND 20S...WHILE IN THE LOCAL AREA...COLD AIR ADVECTION
HAD JUST PUSHED TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO IN VINTON AND INDEPENDENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
MAIN FOCUS IS ON HEADLINES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF ACROSS THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING AND UNSEASONABLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE ENTIRE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE GREAT LAKES JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES THROUGH MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL FORCING
DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL BRUSH THIS AREA BY AFTERNOON.
WILL THUS KEEP LIGHT SNOW AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING
ACROSS OUR NE MO COUNTIES AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL IL COUNTIES UNTIL
NOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
LOOKS LIMITED TO FURTHER SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL
ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES IN THE
EXTREME FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING. HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA AND REPLACED MUCH
OF IT WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN UNTIL NOON. FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WILL DRIVE WIND
CHILLS BELOW -20 FOR PERIODS THIS MORNING NW OF A LINE FROM
FAIRFIELD THROUGH IOWA CITY TO GALENA. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING OVER THE
AREA CURRENTLY RECEIVING SNOW UNTIL 12Z...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT AN EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS FOR
EARLY MARCH SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A GENERAL NORTH
TO SOUTH CLEARING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE TODAY...THE WIDESPREAD
FRESH SNOW COVER AND COLD ADVECTION ON NORTH WINDS WILL LIMIT ANY
DAYTIME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 2
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 10 IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST...WHICH IS ON THE
WARMEST SIDE OF LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. TONIGHT...THE IN-BUILDING
ARCTIC HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL IA BY 12Z. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS IN A 5 TO
10 MPH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
PROVIDING A WIND CHILL THREAT...BUT AT THE SAME TIME PREVENTING A
TEMPERATURE CRASH THAT THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW COVER WOULD
OTHERWISE ALLOW IN THE EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE TOWARD
MORNING...HOWEVER...AND KEPT OUR FORECAST CONSISTENT WITH LOWS
ROUGHLY FROM AROUND -18 NW TO -10 IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS
WELL ABOVE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE THAT PUSHES -20 OR COLDER
INTO THE NW. OUR FORECAST LOWS WILL THREATEN MARCH 3 RECORDS...AND
ALSO PUT MARCH 2 RECORDS AT RISK DEPENDING ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES
DROP THIS EVENING. BOTH THESE AND THE ALL TIME RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH
CAN BE FOUND IN THE SEPARATE CLIMATE SECTION. WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED
FURTHER HEADLINES...ALONG THE LINES OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY A WARNING FOR TONIGHT. OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -25...CLOSING IN ON -30 TOWARD
MORNING WHEN THE ACTUAL WIND BEGINS TO DROP OFF.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE AT
OR BELOW -20 FOR FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL IN BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW RISE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME MID TO LATE WEEK
AS THE UPPER FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HAVE
CONTINUED SOME BROAD BRUSH LOW POPS FOR SNOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 20S FOR
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT AND TEENS FOR LOWS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A WARM UP AS SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A TROF MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS.
HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
30S AND 40S POSSIBLE FRIDAY. MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PRECIPITATION NORTH WITH RAIN SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING WITH IT
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. N/NW WINDS 10-15 KTS AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 2...
BURLINGTON..... -4 IN 1913
CEDAR RAPIDS... -13 IN 1912
DUBUQUE........ -12 IN 1890
MOLINE......... -9 IN 1913
RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 3...
BURLINGTON..... -3 IN 1913
CEDAR RAPIDS... -9 IN 1913
DUBUQUE........ -10 IN 2002
MOLINE......... -8 IN 1884
MARCH RECORD LOWS...
BURLINGTON..... -13 03/05/1960
CEDAR RAPIDS... -20 03/01/1962
DUBUQUE........ -20 03/01/1962
MOLINE......... -19 03/06/1960
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1115 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SNOW HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND PUSHED WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW. THE 00Z ECMWF...GEM
AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST SNOW MAY RIPPLE BACK NORTH WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT ARRIVING OUT OF THE PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE GFS AND NAM KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH. THIS LATTER
SCENARIO LOOKS MORE LIKELY AS THE DEPTH OF THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY
CONFLUENT OVER THAT REGION.
HAVE THUS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WILL UPDATE
FORECAST WORDING FOR LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
REDEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY
AREA OVER EASTERN IA LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW...AND AT 6 AM IT WAS
OUTLINING WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -19 TO -25.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
LARGE AXIS OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO A
140 KT UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SETTLE
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 3 AM...ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KEOSAUQUA THROUGH GALESBURG TO PRINCETON IL. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH WAS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS HIGH WERE IN THE
SUBZERO TEENS AND 20S...WHILE IN THE LOCAL AREA...COLD AIR ADVECTION
HAD JUST PUSHED TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO IN VINTON AND INDEPENDENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
MAIN FOCUS IS ON HEADLINES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF ACROSS THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING AND UNSEASONABLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE ENTIRE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE GREAT LAKES JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES THROUGH MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL FORCING
DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING WILL BRUSH THIS AREA BY AFTERNOON.
WILL THUS KEEP LIGHT SNOW AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING
ACROSS OUR NE MO COUNTIES AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL IL COUNTIES UNTIL
NOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
LOOKS LIMITED TO FURTHER SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL
ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES IN THE
EXTREME FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING. HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA AND REPLACED MUCH
OF IT WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WILL RUN UNTIL NOON. FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND NORTH WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WILL DRIVE WIND
CHILLS BELOW -20 FOR PERIODS THIS MORNING NW OF A LINE FROM
FAIRFIELD THROUGH IOWA CITY TO GALENA. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING OVER THE
AREA CURRENTLY RECEIVING SNOW UNTIL 12Z...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT AN EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS FOR
EARLY MARCH SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A GENERAL NORTH
TO SOUTH CLEARING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE TODAY...THE WIDESPREAD
FRESH SNOW COVER AND COLD ADVECTION ON NORTH WINDS WILL LIMIT ANY
DAYTIME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 2
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 10 IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST...WHICH IS ON THE
WARMEST SIDE OF LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. TONIGHT...THE IN-BUILDING
ARCTIC HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTH CENTRAL IA BY 12Z. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS IN A 5 TO
10 MPH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
PROVIDING A WIND CHILL THREAT...BUT AT THE SAME TIME PREVENTING A
TEMPERATURE CRASH THAT THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW COVER WOULD
OTHERWISE ALLOW IN THE EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE TOWARD
MORNING...HOWEVER...AND KEPT OUR FORECAST CONSISTENT WITH LOWS
ROUGHLY FROM AROUND -18 NW TO -10 IN THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS
WELL ABOVE OF THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE THAT PUSHES -20 OR COLDER
INTO THE NW. OUR FORECAST LOWS WILL THREATEN MARCH 3 RECORDS...AND
ALSO PUT MARCH 2 RECORDS AT RISK DEPENDING ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES
DROP THIS EVENING. BOTH THESE AND THE ALL TIME RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH
CAN BE FOUND IN THE SEPARATE CLIMATE SECTION. WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED
FURTHER HEADLINES...ALONG THE LINES OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR
POSSIBLY A WARNING FOR TONIGHT. OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -25...CLOSING IN ON -30 TOWARD
MORNING WHEN THE ACTUAL WIND BEGINS TO DROP OFF.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE AT
OR BELOW -20 FOR FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL IN BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE
EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW RISE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME MID TO LATE WEEK
AS THE UPPER FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. HAVE
CONTINUED SOME BROAD BRUSH LOW POPS FOR SNOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 20S FOR
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT AND TEENS FOR LOWS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A WARM UP AS SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A TROF MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS.
HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH
30S AND 40S POSSIBLE FRIDAY. MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PRECIPITATION NORTH WITH RAIN SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING WITH IT
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. N/NW WINDS 10-15 KTS AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 2...
BURLINGTON..... -4 IN 1913
CEDAR RAPIDS... -13 IN 1912
DUBUQUE........ -12 IN 1890
MOLINE......... -9 IN 1913
RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 3...
BURLINGTON..... -3 IN 1913
CEDAR RAPIDS... -9 IN 1913
DUBUQUE........ -10 IN 2002
MOLINE......... -8 IN 1884
MARCH RECORD LOWS...
BURLINGTON..... -13 03/05/1960
CEDAR RAPIDS... -20 03/01/1962
DUBUQUE........ -20 03/01/1962
MOLINE......... -19 03/06/1960
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR JO DAVIESS.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1220 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED SOUTH AS
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS THE WICHITA METRO AREA. ALTHOUGH
THE RUC SHOWS THIS AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS WANING A BIT AS IT SHIFTS
FURTHER SOUTH INTO MID-AFTERNOON...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF SHOULD TEND TO KEEP A BROAD AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL GOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY
AFFECT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
RATES OF ONE-HALF INCH TO LOCALLY ONE INCH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN
THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS GREATER WICHITA AND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF HARPER TO
WICHITA TO CASSODAY LINE.
KED
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
TODAY-EARLY EVENING:
EXPECT SOME MARGINALLY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST FOR A
BIT LONGER IN SOUTHEAST KS WHILE SECOND BAND THROUGH ICT WILL
LIKELY RE-INTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING. ONE POSITIVE IS THAT THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE OVER AS COLD AIR HAS RESULTED
IN EITHER SLEET/SNOW FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A BIT PUZZLED BY
CONFLICTING SIGNALS WITH APPROACHING WAVE...WITH LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE 0000 UTC UPPER AIR DATA...BUT IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR
LOOP AND FAIR AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS ON
TIMING/LOCATION OF BEST LIFT DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER CONSISTENT
SIGNAL IS THAT SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS WILL LIKELY HAVE
MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SNOW FOR ANOTHER 12 PLUS HOURS...EITHER FROM
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH WAVE AND/OR FRONTOGENESIS. EVEN IF THE
INTENSITY IS LESS...PERSISTENCE SHOULD STILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
2-3 MORE INCHES BARRING A PREDOMINATELY SLEET EVENT. HAVE
DOWNGRADED SALINE/ELLSWORTH TO AN ADVISORY WHERE ONLY LIGHT SNOW
IS ANTICIPATED. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
COWLEY COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE PAST 0000 UTC.
REST OF TONIGHT-MON:
RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT WITH WINDS CONTINUING
TO DIMINISH. WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO TANK... WITH SOME RECORD LOWS PROBABLY FALLING. GIVEN RIDGE
AXIS MOVING ACROSS AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE
DIFFICULT ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF CIRRUS IS THICKER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. GFS/ECMWF AT ODDS WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW.
MON NIGHT-TUE:
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...BUT RETURN FLOW MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP
ACROSS FAR WEST. STILL KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE EAST...WITH A
NOD TO THE GEM WHICH HAS VERIFIED WELL IN THIS REGIME. MODEST
WARMUP ON TUE AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
STILL RUNNING A BIT BELOW NORMAL. -HOWERTON
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK/MODEST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OVER MID-AMERICA MID-WEEK...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING CHANCE OF A LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WED-WED NIGHT.
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AND TEMPERATURES MAY
BE ONLY MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SO NOT ANTICIPATING A
BIG WEATHER-MAKER...WITH ONLY VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST BY LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...WITH 40S-
50S A GOOD BET AND POSSIBLY NEAR 60F OVER SOUTHERN KS FRI. ECMWF
AND GEM MODELS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS A MODEST MID-LEVEL TROUGH INTO
THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...WHICH COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRI NIGHT-SAT...ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT NEARLY
AS COLD AS CURRENT AIRMASS. THIS SCENARIO DEFINITELY IS NOT SET IN
STONE YET THOUGH...AS GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY NOT AS AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED COOL DOWN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS...SO STAY TUNED FOR
LATER FORECASTS.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
SNOW WITH IFR AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY
SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF LIFR SN AND +SN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SLEET IS STILL
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE WINTER STORM
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
KED
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
THE FOLLOWING ARE CLIMATE RECORDS THAT MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN TODAY
AND MONDAY:
COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 2ND:
RSL 16 IN 2002
SLN 18 IN 2002
ICT 15 IN 1943
CNU 22 IN 1960
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 3RD:
RSL -16 IN 1960
SLN -9 IN 1916
ICT -2 IN 1960
CNU 0 IN 2002
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT -5 15 6 38 / 90 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON -7 14 7 38 / 80 0 0 0
NEWTON -5 15 6 36 / 80 0 0 0
ELDORADO -4 14 4 36 / 90 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD -1 17 5 37 / 100 0 0 0
RUSSELL -9 21 12 41 / 30 0 0 0
GREAT BEND -12 20 12 42 / 50 0 0 0
SALINA -9 15 8 37 / 40 0 0 0
MCPHERSON -7 14 7 37 / 60 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 1 19 4 37 / 100 0 0 0
CHANUTE -2 17 4 35 / 100 0 0 0
IOLA -2 17 4 35 / 90 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 0 19 4 36 / 100 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ070>072-
093>096-098>100.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ050>053-
067>069-082-083-091-092.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST MONDAY
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091-092.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>049.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR
KSZ070>072-093>096.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1142 AM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
...Update to short term and aviation forecast...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1128 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
The main upper trough is now ejecting into the Plains and the
combination of stronger ascent and increased moisture influx into
the dry layer aloft has allowed a band of moderate to heavy snow
to move into the region. Dry advection in the low levels from the
northeast is still persistent and strong on the northern edge of
the snow band, with a sharp cut off from very light snow to heavy
snow along an Abilene to Topeka line. Cancelled all winter weather
advisories north of this line while maintaining products south of
it. Current indications are that additional snow from 10 AM
through the end of the storm will probably range from 1 to 4
inches with the lowest amounts north, near the aforementioned cut
off line. The warm nose aloft also remains evident in dual pol
radar imagery south of an Emporia to Ottawa line so may see a bit
of sleet still mixing in over these areas. The center of the
filling upper trough will move into southwest Missouri after 6
PM...and may maintain enough forcing to continue some light snow
over east central KS through around 9 PM or so...but with the
continued dry advection expect only light additional accumulation
beyond 4 PM. Wind chill advisory has also been expanded across the
entire area and extended through Monday morning as the wind chill
will range from -10 to -25 across the area through this entire
period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
Bands of frontogenesis continue to bring precipitation to mainly
eastern and southern sections of the CWA. Radar trends suggesting
precip types trending to more snow versus sleet. Latest water vapor
has upper trough still not yet through the Four Corners with 09Z obs
putting axis of surface ridge through central Kansas.
Models continue to differ on just where precip will be today. The
GFS seems to be the strong outlier again, with much stronger and
deeper frontogenesis redeveloping this morning. This seems to be
tied to a very strong and channeled vorticity max it brings through
aloft, backing mid level winds and tightening the thermal gradient.
With its recent runs not panning out too well, and it being the
outlier, have put little weight on it. Still will have some 1.5 PV
pressure advection this morning and increasing 300-700mb Q-vector
convergence across east central Kansas as the wave enters the
Panhandles this afternoon. Non-GFS models are similar with the
middle and lower levels drying throughout the day, helping limit
precip chances north of I-70 to mainly the early day, with southern
areas clearing overnight as the wave passes. Have trended amounts
down, but still somewhat conservatively as RAP and HRRR still
suggest some banded structures continuing northeast into northeast
and east central Kansas. Any significant accumulations for north
central Kansas should be finished and dropped the Advisory there,
while tapering amounts elsewhere for a downgrade from Riley to
Jackson counties and ending the Warning earlier for locations north
of the Turnpike. Mid level winds do back a bit as the wave nears for
a potentially warmer warm nose and perhaps more sleet to return just
north of the Turnpike this morning. Wind chills are the other major
consideration and Advisory levels should persist through around
midday for the entire area, and will likely return this evening as
temps drop to around 0 and winds slowly subside. Just how far the
winds go down is a big challenge with clearing taking place as the
center of the high comes in. With the ongoing situation and
uncertainty tonight, will hold off on a headline for tonight at this
point.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
After a very cold start to the day on Monday with wind chills in the
15 to 23 below zero range through late morning. The winds will be
around 5 mph with temperatures of 4 to 8 below zero rising above
zero by noon. Surface high pressure will be located over northeast
Kansas on Monday morning then moving off to the east through the
day. This will allow for winds to come back around to the southeast
from west to east through the day. Highs on Monday with limited
mixing and some snow cover will only warm into the teens.
Tuesday a wave moves through the northwest flow across the Northern
Plains and into the Great Lakes Region. This will push another front
south into the CWA by the end of the day. Highs on Tuesday will warm
back to above freezing ranging from the lower to middle 30s.
Models bring the next trough across the Central Plains in the
northwest flow on Wednesday. There appears to be sufficient moisture
and lift with this system as it moves through for light
precipitation. Forecast soundings from the GFS and ECMWF suggest all
snow generally along and south of Interstate 70 with some light snow
to the north. Highs Wednesday will again be in the 30s.
Warm advection and weak ridging occur Thursday into Friday which
will warm things up for the end of the week. Highs in the 40s
expected on Thursday with 50s on Friday. Friday night and Saturday
will see the next system move through the area. This will bring a
chance of rain and snow to the CWA. There is still model uncertainty
with the timing of the trough late in the week so confidence is low
with regards to the timing as the GFS is much faster and further
north than the ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
Snow, moderate and perhaps even heavy at times will move across
the region. There is a very sharp cut off on the north edge of
this snow, with VFR conditions expected at MHK, with periods of
VFR, MVFR, and IFR conditions at TOP/FOE. FOE has the best chance
for more persistent IFR through around 21Z. Have fair confidence
in snow end time, and expect VFR conditions to be dominant after
snow comes to an end with winds also tapering off after 00Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Monday FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ026-
035>040.
WINTER STORM WARNING until Midnight CST tonight FOR KSZ054>056-
058-059.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
202 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
This mesoscale discussion is only limited to the remainder of this
afternoon (basically through 00z Monday - 6pm CST). Adjusted
weather type, six hourly and storm total QPF, Snow Amount, and Ice
Accumulation grids to reflect mesoscale changes through 6 pm CST.
Most of the convective elements (i.e., thunderstorms and nearby
showers) have been running within the 13km RAP 0-3km Most Unstable
Cape with values in excess of 140-170 Joules/Kilogram oriented
along the ridge of maximum values. Within these elements, the
updrafts are intermixing ice crystal and supercooled water
droplets generating sleet, common with the thunderstorms.
Outside these updrafts, conversion back to freezing rain will be
likely with the loss of decent ice nuclei in the favored dendritic
zone.
The compensating factor toward the support of more sleet with time is
the deepening cold layer above 2.5 kft as of 18-19z Sunday. This layer
of cold air should increase closer to 3.4 kft (using KPAH as
reference point) by 00z Monday.
Modified the Noon to 6 PM CST rainfall, sleet (included in the
snow amount grids), and ice accumulation this afternoon. Some
modification of at least 0.03-0.05" QPF upward adjustment was made
over part of the area where anticipated thunderstorm development
is forecast for the rest of this afternoon. This may be underdone,
but am also trying to take into account some precipitation loading
of above freezing water in heavy downpours, as well as diabatic
effects.
The target area for enhanced ice development during the mid-
afternoon will be from Qulin and New Madrid Missouri, Cairo IL
and Fulton KY, Paducah and Mayfield, KY, Marion and Dawson Springs
KY, and Owensboro and Sacramento KY. Further north will be more
focus toward sleet (deeper sub-freezing layer), with locations further
southeast seeing an increasing concern for freezing rain into the
late afternoon.
&&
.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 18Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
Running short on time so will try and keep this as brief as
possible. The potential still exists for a significant winter storm
from early this morning into midday Monday. The threat for ice
accumulation seems somewhat diminished, but the snow threat has
increased.
A cold front over our far southeast counties at the time of this
writing will be just south and east of our CWA around midday, then
continue to drift southeast this afternoon. Due to warm air
advection and isentropic upglide just above the surface, freezing
precipitation is just beginning to break out over our northwestern
counties. The transition from rain to freezing rain is expected to
migrate southeast through the day today. By late afternoon the
freezing line is expected to make it completely through our CWA.
This evening as the deeper cold (sub-freezing) air filters into the
area from the northwest, freezing rain will begin changing over to
sleet and snow. Current storm total ice accumulations are expected
to range from around a quarter inch over over our northwest counties
to three quarters of an inch over our southeast counties. Storm
total snow accumulations are expected to range from four to six
inches over the northern two thirds of our CWA, and two to four
inches or less over the remainder of the area.
The best chances for precipitation, ice accumulation, etc should be
from this afternoon through Monday morning. As a weather system
lifts northeast out of the southern plains tonight, it will form a
wave on the aforementioned frontal boundary thereby producing an
overrunning scenario consisting of impressive QPF amounts over our
area during the evening and overnight hours which will make for
significant amounts of ice, sleet, and snow. The combination of
wintry weather will likely cause extremely difficult travel
conditions as well as the potential for power outages today and
tonight.
As the system pulls away on Monday, wrap around precipitation in the
form of snow will linger over the southeast half of the CWA through
midday with minor additional accumulations, then move off to the
east of our area. Due to the additional snowfall Monday, extended
the warning for the appropriate area to midday. This a very dynamic
system that bears watching very closely. Forecast confidence remains
rather high, but no doubt as we progress through the event, some
adjustments will be needed.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
The long term period will be mainly dry with temperatures slowly
moderating to near seasonal norms. The main forecast issue in the
long term will be temperatures...since precip potential will be nil
or very low.
Night time lows Tuesday...Wednesday...and Thursday nights will be
cold as winds become light over snow and ice cover each night. Low
temps should be in the teens and 20s. There will be a few factors
that will limit the temp plunge. Relatively warm temps aloft /just
above freezing at 850 mb/ should have some effect. Another factor
will be relatively high dew points compared to recent Arctic air
masses. In addition...some mid and high clouds are likely as a
series of shortwaves progress through the west/northwest flow.
The moderation in daytime highs will also be limited by snow and ice
cover. The models appear to have a pretty good handle on this. The
modelled snow cover is indicated by the surface thermal trough that
persists over the Lower Ohio Valley through the week. Even with 850
mb temps above freezing and seasonably higher sun angles...surface
temps will likely not get out of the 30s on Wednesday. By
Friday...the combination of southwest flow and March sun will push
temps well above freezing. Will maintain forecast highs around 50.
A weak cold front will move southeast across our region next
weekend. This front will be accompanied by very little moisture...so
pops will be kept in the slight chance category. With 850 mb temps
near zero...precip type could be either rain or snow.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
Another round of freezing rain and sleet will spread across the
forecast terminals this afternoon, resulting in significant icing.
The precipitation will change to mainly sleet by late afternoon
and early evening, then to snow by late evening and overnight. On
top of the ice, several inches of snow accumulation is expected.
Low MVFR conditions will frequently be reduced to IFR in heavier
precipitation. The precipitation will come to an end late tonight
and early Monday morning, but MVFR ceilings will remain. Sustained
northerly winds of 10 to 20 knots will gust as high as 25 to 30
knots.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Monday FOR ILZ077-078-082-
083-085>094.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ075-076-080-
081-084.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Monday FOR MOZ108>112-114.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Monday FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Monday FOR KYZ003>005-007-
010-014-015-018>020.
ICE STORM WARNING until 9 AM CST Monday FOR KYZ001-002-006-008-
009-011>013-016-017-021-022.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Smith
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...RJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
432 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
...RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW
IN THE COLDEST START TO MARCH SINCE 2002 AND ONE OF THE COLDEST
STARTS ON RECORD...
ALOFT: MODESTLY SPLIT LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW WAS OVER THE CONUS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING E THRU CO/NM INTO INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW.
THIS TROF WILL HEAD E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE SE STATES
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE WRN USA.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING ONSHORE INTO OR/NRN CA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS TROF WILL MISS THE
REGION FAR TO THE NW...BUT A LOW-AMPLITUDE PV STREAMER WILL MOVE
THRU TOMORROW...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THRU THE RIDGE.
SURFACE: ELONGATED AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRES EXTENDED FROM
WRN CANADA S INTO THE PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL SHRINK AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT...AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TOMORROW. THIS HIGH AND CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY MAJOR ROLES IN
HOW COLD TEMPS GET TONIGHT. BREAKING/SETTING RECORD LOWS IS ON THE
TABLE.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL ENCROACH
FROM THE N OF NEB HWY 92. SOME LIGHT SNOW /-SN/ MAY DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF S-CNTRL NEB. TEMPS DID GET ABOVE THE ALL-TIME RECORD
COLDEST FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFO ON RECORDS.
TONIGHT: UNSEASONABLE BITTER COLD! IF OUR TEMPS WORK OUT AS FCST...
LOWS WILL BE NEARLY 40F COLDER THAN WHERE THEY TYPICALLY ARE FOR
EARLY MARCH /LOW-MID 20S/.
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING CLOUDS.
SOME MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE UPSTREAM OVER WY...BUT THEY
WILL BE MOVING INTO SUBSIDENCE. SO AM NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLEAR...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INFLICT A MAJOR IMPACT
ON TEMPS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS WELL...
RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF CALM OR NEARLY CALM WINDS.
TEMPS: LOWS WERE -13 TO -20 OVER THE DAKOTA`S THIS MORNING. AND
WHILE THERE IS SNOWCOVER UP THERE...MOST OF IT IS A WEEK OLD. THE
OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS AIR MASS. THE 850
MB TEMP WAS -21C AT GRAND ISLAND THIS MORNING. BASED ON REANALYSIS
DATA...-21 AND COLDER HAS ONLY OCCURRED 4 TIMES IN THE PAST 34 YRS.
AND GIVEN THAT TEMPS WILL ONLY BE ABOVE FRZG FOR ABOUT 5 HRS TODAY
ALONG AND N OF HWY 6...I BELIEVE WE NEED TO FCST RECORD COLD.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS OVER MUCH OF S-CNTRL NEB.
LOW TEMPS WERE DROPPED 4-7F FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
A WIND CHILL /WC/ ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA.
FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E...A WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR 1-2 HRS OF
-30 TO -35 WC`S IN THE 6AM-9AM TIMEFRAME. JUST AS TEMPS BOTTOM
OUT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND THIS WILL HAPPEN DURING THE
MORNING RUSH.
SNOW: A NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF HAS DEVELOPED ON SATELLITE WITH A
BLOSSOMING AREA OF DEFORMATION -SN OVER WRN KANSAS. THIS HAS
DEVELOPED FURTHER N THAN THE 12Z NAM-DERIVED HI-RES MODELS FCST. THE
17Z HRRR HAS IT AND BELIEVE THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A
TOUCH OF -SN OVER PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS...ESPECIALLY FROM
STOCKTON-OSBORNE-BELOIT SOUTHWARD. A CHANCE OF -SN IS NOW IN THE
FCST. THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FCST TO DROP ESE WHICH WILL
ACTUALLY DRAG THE SNOW SHIELD AWAY FROM N-CNTRL KS AS SUNSET
APPROACHES.
TOMORROW: HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE MOVING IN AT DAWN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROF. SO OVERALL EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY AND
BLUSTERY DAY. HOW QUICKLY TEMPS WARM UP IS UNCERTAIN. SO CONFIDENCE
IN THE HOURLY TEMPS IS BELOW AVERAGE.
WENT ABOVE NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE ON WIND SPEEDS. AS A LEE-SIDE TROF
DEVELOPS...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TO 16 MB ACROSS NEB. THE
GFS/EC/NAM/SREF HAVE A 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAX AND BELIEVE WE
WILL TAP INTO THE UNDERSIDE OF IT.
MIXING HEIGHTS ARTIFICIALLY TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM WHICH
HAS ITS SNOWCOVER BIAS. EVEN IF WE USE THE CONSERVATIVE GFS MIXING
HEIGHTS AROUND 2K FT...THAT STILL WOULD ALLOW FOR MIXING DOWN 30
KTS.
HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED 2-4F FROM THE PRIOR GID FCST...ALONG AND W OF
HWY 281.
POST MORTEM: LAST NIGHT`S SNOW RISK OVER CNTRL/NRN KS ENDED UP
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WHAT THE MODELS DEPICTED. THESE TYPE OF
SITUATIONS THAT ARE DRIVEN BY JET STREAK AND FRONTAL FORCING /IN THE
MID-LEVELS/ ARE INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO FCST. THERE IS NO LOW PRES
FROM WHICH WE DERIVE OUR TRADITIONAL FCST CUES. THESE ISOLATED
NARROW SNOW BANDS HAVE VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY. THE HI-RES MESOSCALE
MODELS DEPICT THEM VERY WELL /WHEN AND IF THEY ARE CORRECT/. YOU CAN
THROW OUT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS. THEY CANT HANDLE THESE SMALL
FEATURES AND ARE WAYYYY TO BROAD WITH THEIR QPF. THE BAND DID
DEVELOP BUT IT WAS MODELED TO BECOME STATIONARY ALONG/NEAR I-70
WHICH IT DID NOT. IT WAS TRANSIENT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME FRAME OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS...AS IS TYPICAL SEVERAL
PERIODS HAD HIGH/LOW TEMPS TWEAKED UPWARD OR DOWNWARD AS MUCH AS 2-5
DEGREES...BUT THE OVERALL THEME OF A TRANSITION TO MILDER WEATHER
REMAINS INTACT. THAT BEING SAID...ITS NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO BE A
CASE WHERE EACH DAY GETS PROGRESSIVELY WARMER...AS DAYS SUCH AS
WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY COULD END UP BEING EITHER
SMALL OR POTENTIALLY LARGER BUMPS IN THE ROAD. MEANWHILE...BOTH
THURSDAY AND VERY PRELIMINARILY NEXT SUNDAY BOTH LOOK LIKE THE BEST
CANDIDATES FOR THE MILDEST DAYS OF THE NEXT 7 WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 60S.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...THE MAJORITY OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD SHOULD BE
DRY...BUT 20-30 POPS CONTINUE FOR ALL OR PARTS OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A NEW SLIGHT CHANCE
HAS BEEN ADDED TO NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY DAYTIME...MAKING NOW A
TOTAL OF 4 PERIODS MENTIONING SOME RISK OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN BOTH OF THESE
WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING THE TUES
NIGHT-WED POSSIBILITY. FOR ONLY BEING A FEW DAYS AWAY...ITS STILL
TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER 1) THERE IS EVEN MUCH CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP AT ALL AND HENCE POPS KEPT LOW THUS FAR AND 2) IF PRECIP
DOES FALL...WHAT TYPE WILL IT ASSUME? KEEPING WITH THE REASONING
DISCUSSED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...HAVE KEPT ANY TUES-NIGHT WED PRECIP
TYPE AS SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW...BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SIGNS IN SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET/SOME TYPE OF WINTRY MIX COULD COME INTO PLAY HERE AS WELL.
GIVEN TIME IS STILL ON OUR SIDE HERE WITH THIS POSSIBLE ROUND OF
PRECIP STILL BEING 48+ HOURS AWAY...WILL KEEP THE BASIC TYPES FOR
NOW AND AVOID CLUTTERING THE FORECAST WITH TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
AND/OR CAUSING UNDUE CONCERN AS THE MENTION OF MIXED-PHASE WINTRY
TYPES CAN SOMETIMES DO. AS FOR POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH ANY
TUES NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PRECIP...ITS OBVIOUSLY WAY TOO EARLY TO TALK
SPECIFICS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS WITHIN 72
HOURS OF NOW HAVE TOSSED A VERY GENERIC COVERAGE OF AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1 INCH INTO THE OFFICIAL
SNOWFALL GRIDS. THE SAME SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW PRECIP TYPE ROUTE WAS
USED WITH THE FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT POPS...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE OF A TRUE SNOW EVENT WITH
LESS RISK OF MIXED-TYPES SHOULD IT OCCUR.
GETTING INTO MORE DETAIL AND STARTING WITH MONDAY
NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS UNDER
A BROAD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT THAT DEFINES MUCH OF THE
CONUS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME LOWER STRATUS COULD DEVELOP
AND STREAM NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE CWA IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BUT AM NOT SOLD ON THIS SCENARIO SO SKY COVER IS GENERALLY
AIMED INTO PARTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY BREEZES OF
AT LEAST 5-10 MPH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT
LOW TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY
MORNING BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THESE
VALUES...STILL AIMING FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 9-14 ABOVE ZERO.
FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE OVERALL STORY IN
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS INVOLVES THE GRADUAL EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
DEVELOPMENT OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE
PACIFIC COAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. WITH THE MAIN BATCH OF FORCING
STILL WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY HAVE KEPT IT
DRY...AND EVEN RAISED TEMPS 2-4 DEGREES GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT STARTS TO DROP INTO NORTHERN ZONES
IN THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THAT CLOUDS ARE NOT OVERLY
ABUNDANT...ITS POSSIBLE THAT ADVERTISED HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 30S
NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH...BUT ITS
ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE HIGHS ADVERTISED BY THE LAST FEW NAM
RUNS APPEAR WAY TOO COLD. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES GROW...BUT VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF BRING AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP OF AT LEAST SOME VARIETY
INTO THE AREA BEFORE MOVING IT OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW STRONG THE SYNOPTIC FORCING/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE WITH THIS WAVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AS THAT WILL ULTIMATELY
SPELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LEGITIMATE LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
SUCH AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM AND OTHER MODELS...OR ESSENTIALLY NOTHING
WHATSOEVER AS ADVERTISED BY THE 12Z GEM MODEL. THE PRESENCE OF
PRECIP OR LACK THEREOF WILL ALSO AFFECT HIGHS WED...AND WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING LOW OPTED TO MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS WITH
GENERALLY MID-UPPER 30S.
THURSDAY DAYTIME THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS LOOKS TO FEATURE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BEFORE GIVING WAY TO THE
NEXT POTENTIAL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AS
A RESULT...A BIT OF A TEMPERATURE ROLLER-COASTER STARTS TO DEVELOP.
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW/GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION GOING AHEAD
OF THIS DISTURBANCE ON THURS...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
AWHILE...AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH A RANGE FROM UPPER
40S-UPPER 50S. THEN FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A POTENTIALLY
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA...AND AS
A RESULT FRIDAY HIGHS WERE LOWERED 3-5 DEGREES...BUT STILL UPPER 30S
NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH FOR NOW. AS EARLIER MENTIONED...SLIGHT POPS
MAINLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH COULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW PER THE LATEST
ECMWF BUT LESS-SO THE GFS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND ASSUMING THAT FRIDAY
NIGHT PRECIP MOVES OUT BY SATURDAY DAYTIME...AS THE PATTERN ALOFT
AGAIN TRANSITIONS TO RIDGING. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO SATURDAY HIGHS
WITH A RANGE OF 40S ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF IS
COOLER THAN THIS. VERY PRELIMINARILY...SUNDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE
OUTRIGHT-WARMEST DAY OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST...AND FOR NOW HAVE
WIDESPREAD 50S IN NEB ZONES AND LOW 60S IN KS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z GRI TAF THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
THIS AFTERNOON: VFR. DRIER AIR IS ERODING THE 5K FT STRATUS FROM
THE NE. EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR AT GRI WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ONLY
TO REVEAL BKN 9K FT CIGS AND 20K FT OVC. N WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10
KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: VFR AND BECOMING NEARLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE...BUT ORGANIZE FROM THE S AFTER 09Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
MON MORNING: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS MOVING IN AND CASCADING
DOWNWARD WITH OTHER MID-LEVEL LAYERS OF ALTOCU/ALTOSTRATUS.
RUNWAYS WILL NEED TO CHANGE AS WINDS BECOME S AROUND 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO GET HIGH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN MARCH. IT HAS ONLY HAPPENED 5 TIMES EVER AT GRAND ISLAND AND
HASTINGS.
VULNERABLE LOW TEMP RECORDS TODAY:
GRAND ISLAND: -5 IN 1960 (TIED)
HASTINGS: -5 IN 1913 (TIED)
* BOTH OF THESE RECORDS CAN BE BROKEN IF TEMPS DROP BELOW -5F
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
VULNERABLE COLDEST DAILY HIGH TEMP RECORDS TODAY:
GRAND ISLAND: 10 IN 2002 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH: 7)
HASTINGS: 11 IN 2002 (CURRENT FORECAST HIGH: 7)
VULNERABLE LOW TEMP RECORDS FOR TOMORROW 3/3:
GRAND ISLAND: -16 IN 1960
HASTINGS: -10 IN 1960
ALL-TIME COLDEST HIGH TEMPS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH:
GRAND ISLAND: 4 ON 3/10/1948
HASTINGS: 3 ON 3/11/1948
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-073>076.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ060-072-077-082>087.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1232 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EST SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...AS WELL AS
THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME SUNNY BREAKS
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AREAS OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY TO REFLECT THE END OF THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD ADVECTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB MUCH
MORE FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 606 AM EST SUNDAY...UPDATED FCST TO MENTION LIKELY
POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS THRU 15Z...AND ADJUSTED
CRNT TEMPS BASED ON OBS. LATEST SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS THE
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLW AND FAVORABLE LVLL MOISTURE PROFILES WL
CONT TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS THRU MID MORNING TODAY.
ALREADY RECEIVE A REPORT FROM STOWE AT 1500 FEET OF 3.5" OF FLUFFY
SNOW...THINKING AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO 2 INCHES WL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE MOISTURE IN FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION DECREASES AND
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS CHANGES TO FLURRIES. HAVE
NOTED SOME VERY DRY AIR JUST OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
MORNING WITH SFC DWPTS <0F MOVING TWD OUR REGION ON BRISK NW
WINDS. THIS LLVL DRY AIR WL UNCUT MID LVL MOISTURE ALOFT TO
DECREASE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPS WL CONT TO FALL BEHIND THE
FRNT THIS MORNING...BEFORE LEVELING OFF AROUND MIDDAY. VERY COLD
NIGHT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...HAVE DECREASED TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS. THINKING BTWN
-12F AND -18F SLK/NEK TO -5F TO -12F CENTRAL VT/SLV TO -5F TO 5F
CPV/LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
PICTURE BIG WATER VAPOR SHOWS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER LVL
MOISTURE DRAPED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS THIS
MORNING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND S/W ENERGY OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS MID LVL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD PVA
ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WL CONT TO IMPACT OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING...BEFORE DEPARTING OUR CWA BY 15Z.
THIS BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED TIGHT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THERMAL
GRADIENT WITH LLVL CAA WL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT TEMP FCST TODAY.
PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -20C NEAR MSS AT 15Z TODAY TO -9C
AT VSF...INDICATING THE SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT ACRS OUR REGION. WL
MENTION HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS DACKS/SLV TO UPPER
20S LWR CT RIVER VALLEY WITH VALUES IN THE L20S ACRS THE CPV...BUT
FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. ALSO...WL CONT
TO MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA TIMING...WHICH
WL BE BTWN 12Z-15Z FOR OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
LATEST RAP CONTS TO SHOW GOOD 850 TO 500MB RH...ALONG WITH SOME
FAVORABLE 850 TO 700MB FGEN LIFT AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT QPF/PROGGED
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RETURNS. STILL ANTICIPATING SOME VIRGA WITH
INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP...AS LARGE SPREAD CONTS BTWN SFC TEMP AND
DWPTS. SNOWFALL WL RANGE BTWN DUSTING AND 2 INCHES THRU
15Z....BEFORE DRYING AIR AND SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA
THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THRU TUESDAY WL BE THE MUCH BLW
NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED...AND JUST HOW COLD WE GET. STILL
NOTICING A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE BTWN THE COLDER MAV
AND WARMER MET NUMBERS...WITH THE ECE MOS SHOWING A NICE
COMPROMISE. WL USE A BLEND FOR TEMPS...WITH A TREND TWD THE
ECE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. FOR TONIGHT...SFC
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND WEAK LOW PRES TO OUR EAST WL RESULT IN BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS ACRS OUR REGION...RESULTING IN COLD WIND CHILL AND
KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED. THIS MIXING WL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT WITH LOWS EXPECTED BTWN -5F AND -10F
SLV/DACKS/NEK TO -5F TO +5F CPV/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. THESE
EXPECTED TEMPS COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNTS WL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -10F AND -20F ACRS THE DACKS...VERY
SIMILAR TO A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO. GIVEN MARGINALLY REACHING WIND
CHILL CRITERIA AND RECENT COLD WX...WL NOT BE ISSUING HIGHLIGHT
WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT WL MENTION IN HWO. ALSO...AS TEMPS DROP BLW
-5F IN THE COLDER VALLEYS...WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS AND
BECOME MORE TRRN DRIVEN. FOR MONDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLW CONTS
WITH PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ONLY BTWN -18C AND -22C...WHICH ARE 2 TO
3 STD BLW NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY WL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS
MTNS/SLK/NEK TO LOWER TEENS CENTRAL VT/MPV TO MID TEENS CPV/LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS FROM LLVL INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HRS. SFC RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROP
WITH LOWS AROUND -20F EXPECTED ACRS THE DACKS/NEK TO -15F CENTRAL
VT VALLEYS/NASHVILLE TO -10F SLV TO 0 TO -5F CPV/UHI AREAS. WL
TREND TWD THE WARMER MET/ECE SOLUTIONS...GIVEN RECENT BETTER
PERFORMANCE WITH TEMPS AND SLIGHT WARMING IN LVLL THERMAL
PROFILES.
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SOUTH OF REGION AS MID LVL MOISTURE
AND 5H VORT IN THE FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT APPROACH OUR CWA.
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY LLVLS WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT
HAVE NOTICED BOTH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF ACRS
OUR REGION. WL MENTION SOME VERY LOW CHC POPS ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LVL MOISTURE AND 5H VORT...BUT THINKING BETTER CHCS ARRIVE WITH NEXT
SFC BOUNDARY ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY LIMIT
SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...SOME WL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
MTNS TO NEAR 20F WARMER VALLEYS. STILL 10 TO 20 DEGREES BLW NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST SUNDAY...WE CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH NEW BRUNSWICK UPPER LOW ROTATING WEAK REPLENISHMENT OF
COLD AIR FOR LATE WED/WED NGT. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THIS AS IT MOVES THRU...PRETTY MUCH COLDER THAN
NORMAL/DRY PATTERN PERSISTING.
SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING MID/LATE WEEK ACRS CONUS WITH OUR FA MAINLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM. WITH ZONAL FLOW AND MODERATING
TMPS FOR LATE WEEK INTO ERLY WEEKEND WITH NRN STREAM DELIVERING WEAK
COLD FRONT SAT NGT/SUN TIMEFRAME WITH SOME SHSN.
MEANWHILE... A SRN STREAM LOW DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO TRAVEL OFF SE
CONUS/MID ATLANTIC THU NGT/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...AS AN ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS
WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 00Z AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL CIGS JUST ABOVE TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT LEAVING SCT MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT RETURN TO FEW-SCT 040-050 AFTER 14Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION...WITH BRIEF IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1257 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEARED MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO FROM THE ADVISORY AS REGIONAL RADARS
SHOW SNOW QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS VERY
DRY AIR SPREADS INTO THE LOW LEVELS. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO EXPAND NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5
DEGREES AT TOL/PCW/DFI. THE QUESTION FOR THE AFTERNOON IS HOW
EFFECTIVE WILL THE DRY AIR BE AT ENDING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH
AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THINK
THE SNOW WILL HOLD ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT THE NORTHWARD PUSH
OF DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT EVENTUALLY AS EVEN THE FLOW THROUGH 850MB
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL WAVE CAN BE SEEN TRAVERSING
LAKE ERIE ON WATER VAPOR AND THE RUC ADVERTISES MUCH DRIER AIR
ARRIVING BY 20Z IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. THE ADVISORY FOR THE
CLEVELAND AREA WILL LIKELY EXPIRE AS PLANNED BUT THE ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS MAY BE CANCELLED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT
SAID...MUCH MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION CAN BE SEEN OVER CENTRAL
OHIO AND THIS MAY STILL CLIP KNOX/HOLMES COUNTIES...BOOSTING
SNOWFALL TOTALS. THAT IS ABOUT THE ONLY CHANCE OF RECEIVING MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH FROM THIS STORM. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
STEADY OR FALL TODAY AND WIND CHILL VALUES RANGE FROM 5 TO -5 MOST
AREAS.
ORIGINAL...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS
THE AREA. SNOW CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE TODAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE DECREASING FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED
THE NAM TODAY WHICH SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS
THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
LIFT WILL ALSO BE HELPED BY INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
WITH OHIO BEING IN THE RT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH WHILE TO THE NORTH WILL
DECREASE POPS SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMS LOOK TO BE WILL
BE BEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WITH 2-4 OR 3-5 A
REASONABLE ACCUM FOR THE DAY. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL TAPER POPS TO CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY BY MIDNIGHT WITH
FURTHER DRYING BY 12Z MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW COMES TUESDAY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS MOISTENS WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE ALREADY IN PLACE. THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT. BEST FORCING HOWEVER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AHEAD OF A RATHER SHARP UPPER TROF AS WELL AS NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXPECTED WARM UP LATE NEXT WEEK WILL ONLY BE SUBTLE AT BEST AND
BRIEF. FRI MAY BE THE ONLY DAY WHERE TEMPS EVEN RISE AROUND THE
NORMAL POINT...JUST AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THRU THE
AREA.
STILL NOT SURE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WON`T
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ON THU SO WILL PUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WILL LEAVE THU NIGHT DRY DUE
TO BETTER RIDGING.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT SHOULD
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A GOOD THREAT FOR RAIN THAT WILL PROBABLY
CHANGE TO SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN SNOW AREA HAS JUST ABOUT MOVED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED. AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTH BY THIS EVENING THEY WILL
BECOME MORE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED AND WILL GET AN INFLUENCE
FROM LAKE HURON. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SO EXPECTING SOME MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR CLE AND CAK AND ONLY EXPECTING A DUSTING AS
THE AIRMASS IS DRYING OUT. FOR ERI AND YNG NOT EXPECTING ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
THE CLOUDS FORECAST IS TOUGH FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME BRIEF
VFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE NORTHERLY
FLOW TONIGHT LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED MVFR CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT AT TOL AND FDY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NE TO N WINDS MAY BLOW 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
LAKE. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE TUE THEN NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TUE NIGHT INTO WED THEN
DIMINISH A LITTLE AND TURN EAST ON THU THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE WORKING SE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
FRI AND SHOULD START TO SHIFT THE VARIABLE WINDS TO NW.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ010>013-020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ021>023-028>033-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1107 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY STABLE AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEARED MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO FROM THE ADVISORY AS REGIONAL RADARS
SHOW SNOW QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS VERY
DRY AIR SPREADS INTO THE LOW LEVELS. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO EXPAND NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5
DEGREES AT TOL/PCW/DFI. THE QUESTION FOR THE AFTERNOON IS HOW
EFFECTIVE WILL THE DRY AIR BE AT ENDING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH
AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THINK
THE SNOW WILL HOLD ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT THE NORTHWARD PUSH
OF DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT EVENTUALLY AS EVEN THE FLOW THROUGH 850MB
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL WAVE CAN BE SEEN TRAVERSING
LAKE ERIE ON WATER VAPOR AND THE RUC ADVERTISES MUCH DRIER AIR
ARRIVING BY 20Z IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. THE ADVISORY FOR THE
CLEVELAND AREA WILL LIKELY EXPIRE AS PLANNED BUT THE ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS MAY BE CANCELLED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT
SAID...MUCH MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION CAN BE SEEN OVER CENTRAL
OHIO AND THIS MAY STILL CLIP KNOX/HOLMES COUNTIES...BOOSTING
SNOWFALL TOTALS. THAT IS ABOUT THE ONLY CHANCE OF RECEIVING MORE
THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH FROM THIS STORM. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
STEADY OR FALL TODAY AND WIND CHILL VALUES RANGE FROM 5 TO -5 MOST
AREAS.
ORIGINAL...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS
THE AREA. SNOW CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE TODAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE DECREASING FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED
THE NAM TODAY WHICH SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS
THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
LIFT WILL ALSO BE HELPED BY INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS
WITH OHIO BEING IN THE RT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH WHILE TO THE NORTH WILL
DECREASE POPS SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMS LOOK TO BE WILL
BE BEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WITH 2-4 OR 3-5 A
REASONABLE ACCUM FOR THE DAY. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL TAPER POPS TO CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY BY MIDNIGHT WITH
FURTHER DRYING BY 12Z MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW COMES TUESDAY...MAINLY AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS MOISTENS WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE ALREADY IN PLACE. THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT. BEST FORCING HOWEVER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AHEAD OF A RATHER SHARP UPPER TROF AS WELL AS NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXPECTED WARM UP LATE NEXT WEEK WILL ONLY BE SUBTLE AT BEST AND
BRIEF. FRI MAY BE THE ONLY DAY WHERE TEMPS EVEN RISE AROUND THE
NORMAL POINT...JUST AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THRU THE
AREA.
STILL NOT SURE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WON`T
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ON THU SO WILL PUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WILL LEAVE THU NIGHT DRY DUE
TO BETTER RIDGING.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATER FRI OR FRI NIGHT SHOULD
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A GOOD THREAT FOR RAIN THAT WILL PROBABLY
CHANGE TO SNOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL SAG SOUTH TO BE AFFECTING
JUST THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY 22Z THEN SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SSE
OUT OF FDY...MFD...CAK AND YNG THRU 06Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A FEW
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHSN MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AROUND CLE AND MAYBE OTHER
PARTS OF THE SNOWBELT AS NORTH WINDS BRING MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE
HURON INTO THE AREA.
MAINLY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT BUT SHOULD STAY UNDER
15 KNOTS.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NE TO N WINDS MAY BLOW 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO TONIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
LAKE. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE TUE THEN NE
WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TUE NIGHT INTO WED THEN
DIMINISH A LITTLE AND TURN EAST ON THU THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE WORKING SE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
FRI AND SHOULD START TO SHIFT THE VARIABLE WINDS TO NW.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ010>013-020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ021>023-028>033-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
448 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY I`VE SEEN MORE DIVERSE AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
THAN IN ANY EIGHT HOUR SHIFT OVER MY ENTIRE 40 YEAR CAREER.
THICK COLD ARCTIC AIR OF 5 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET HAS PRODUCED
SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. LIFT ABOVE A DEEP WARM LAYER
ALOFT HAS PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MANY COMBINATIONS OF
SLEET SNOW RAIN FREEZING RAIN HAIL.
DEEPENING COLD LAYER HAS ABOUT SHUT-OUT FREEZING RAIN RISK
SO ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO A WINTER STORM
HEADLINE. ALL WARNINGS CONSOLIDATED TO END AT 4 AM...WITH
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
LAST SNOW SLEET BURST CURRENTLY NOW WEST OF I-35 WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND LATE
EVENING TO 4 AM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HRRR SHORT RANGE MODEL
WHICH HAS BEEN GOOD...CLEARS PRECIP FROM CARROLL COUNTY AR
JUST BEFORE 4 AM.
BITTER COLD AND WINDY MONDAY REQUIRES WIND CHILL HEADLINE.
HIGHS TEMPS MONDAY NEAR RECORD LOW/MAXIMUM.
NEXT WAVE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
NEXT WEEKEND.
GW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 3 19 14 39 / 80 0 0 0
FSM 15 28 17 42 / 90 10 0 0
MLC 9 23 15 42 / 80 0 0 0
BVO 3 19 9 37 / 90 0 0 0
FYV 6 24 11 40 / 90 10 0 0
BYV 3 24 11 38 / 90 10 0 0
MKO 7 20 13 40 / 90 0 0 0
MIO 0 18 10 36 / 90 0 0 0
F10 7 20 14 41 / 80 0 0 0
HHW 13 28 21 45 / 80 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
245 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
A MULTI-FACETED WINTER WEATHER MESS CONTINUES TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. WV SATELLITE SHOWS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DEEPENING ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WITH
WELL PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ENTERING WRN OK...AND AREA OF
DEFORMATION/BANDED SNOW OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. AHEAD OF THIS
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR...SCT SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTAINING HAIL CONTINUE. INSTABILITY REMAINS
TOO MARGINAL FOR SEVERE HAIL...BUT SEVERAL REPORTS OF DIMES AND
NICKELS HAVE COME IN. EXPECT THE LIKLIHOOD OF HAIL TO WANE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT HEAVY SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOOMERS
THAT HAPPEN TO AFFECT YOUR LOCATION. IN FACT...SLEETFALL RATES OF
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE PROBABLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTIVE CORES. HOWEVER...THESE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN...AND EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SLEET AND SNOW TO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE HIGH-RES HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
PERHAPS THE HEAVIEST SLEET WILL FALL OVER EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD HALF INCH OR GREATER SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA WARRANTED A WINTER STORM WARNING. AREAS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
HAVE CERTAINLY SEEN SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT WSW CRITERIA WILL BE MET ON A LARGE SCALE...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OVER
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNING IN THESE AREAS...THOUGH SEVERAL MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIER SNOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH...AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.
THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CARRY INTO THE
WEE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. ONCE WE GET TO SUNRISE TOMORROW...THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.
SINGLE DIGIT TO NEAR ZERO LOWS ARE FORECAST OVER A GOOD PART OF
OKLAHOMA...WITH LOWER TEENS OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. THIS COMBINED WITH NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FROM NEAR ZERO SOUTH TO -15 DEGREES NORTH. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO
THE 20S AND 30S TOMORROW...SO DON`T EXPECT A LOT OF MELTING. ROAD
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS RIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ONCE WE GET THROUGH TOMORROW...THINGS ARE LOOKING UP. YES...IT
WILL STILL BE CHILLY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS POSITIVE
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO. MODELS BRING A WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIP
THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS SHOULD MAINLY FALL IN LIQUID FORM...THOUGH
PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY GET A RAIN/SNOW MIX. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN WARM EACH DAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR JUST IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WELCOME TO WINTER IN MARCH
EVERYONE!
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 7 24 17 46 / 70 0 10 10
HOBART OK 5 27 18 49 / 50 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 12 32 22 50 / 10 0 10 10
GAGE OK -2 25 19 48 / 70 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 3 20 13 41 / 90 0 10 0
DURANT OK 13 28 23 46 / 40 0 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ013-
014-016>030-033>040-044-045.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR OKZ004>036-038-040-042.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ004>012-
015-031-032-041>043-046>048-050>052.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
23/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
413 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. FRONT
SHOULD ENTER THE AREA IN AN HOUR OR TWO AND MOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS FAR OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...WITH NO THUNDER
REPORTED YET. THINK LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ALONG OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TUMBLE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY BE ABOUT 40 TO 45 DEGREES COOLER MONDAY MORNING
COMPARED TO RIGHT NOW. IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER TEMPS...STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE EXISTS BETWEEN MAV/MET WIND SPEEDS WITH
THE MAV SUGGESTING WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. TEMPERED WIND SPEEDS
A BIT BUT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NONETHELESS WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY COULD BECOME NECESSARY IF
SPEEDS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AN ISSUE THOUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION
WHERE WC VALUES WILL FALL BETWEEN 20 AND 25 AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SOMETHING ALSO
WORTH MONITORING WILL BE THE PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE HRRR HAS DEVELOPED PRECIP OVER MUCH OF
SOUTH TEXAS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT HAVE KEPT
SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
40S ON MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RAMP BACK UP ON MONDAY NIGHT AS
850MB FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN BECOMES
ESTABLISHED.
&&
.MARINE...VERY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BETWEEN 35 AND 40
KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING OVER THE
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD BETWEEN 6 AND 8
FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 8 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING
ON MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...S/W TROUGH AXIS WILL KICK EAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN ZONES AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AN INCREASE IN NVA
SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCES RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AS
ANOTHER S/W TROUGH SKIRTS EAST ACROSS TX. THIS SYSTEM IS PROG TO BE
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE STARVED THAN MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY SYSTEM...AND THUS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NW FLOW FROM SFC TO UPPER LEVELS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SUNNIER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. BRIEF
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY TRANSITIONS TO MERIDIONAL BY THE WEEKEND
WITH BOTH ECMWF/GFS WANTING TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION. GUIDANCE IS ALSO WANTING TO CUT OFF A STRONG H5 LOW ACROSS
NW MEX AND SHIFT IT EAST TOWARDS THE BIG BEND REGION. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR LATTER PERIODS DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PROGRESSES CLOSER. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR TUES WITH ONLY TEMPERED
MODIFICATION ON WEDNESDAY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP EXPECTED THURS
AND FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY
IMPACTS THE AREA LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 35 47 38 44 44 / 30 20 50 50 20
VICTORIA 33 47 36 42 41 / 30 10 50 50 20
LAREDO 38 46 39 52 47 / 10 10 20 10 10
ALICE 35 46 38 45 43 / 20 10 40 40 20
ROCKPORT 33 48 39 45 45 / 30 20 50 50 20
COTULLA 36 49 37 48 44 / 10 10 30 10 10
KINGSVILLE 35 45 38 46 44 / 30 20 50 50 20
NAVY CORPUS 37 46 41 45 45 / 30 20 50 50 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...
VICTORIA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
TB/78...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
118 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING SOUTHWEST TO INCLUDE THE DALLAS-
FORT WORTH METROPOLITAN AREA JUST BEFORE NOON. THIS DECISION WAS
MADE PRIMARILY DUE TO TWO PIECES OF EVIDENCE:
1. TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE MID 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WHERE THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS EXPANDED INTO.
EVEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS STARTING TO CAUSE PROBLEMS...AND
MPING (THE RESEARCH SMART-PHONE APP) REPORTS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF SLEET FALLING A FEW HOURS BEFORE
FREEZING RAIN WAS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION OVER TO SLEET. WE WILL
NOT BE GETTING ANY WARMER DURING THIS EVENT...SO MORE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SLEET IS GOING TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON
PRIMARY ROADWAYS AND NOT JUST ELEVATED SURFACES.
2. INFRARED SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADARS WERE SHOWING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DEVELOPING FROM SHERMAN SOUTHWEST TO AZLE A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ARRIVED OVER NORTH TEXAS. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...CONVECTION
IS ONLY EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE. THE FACT THAT CONVECTION
WAS BEGINNING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH JUST MEANS MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
ICE/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS.
METEOROLOGICAL REASONING:
A 1630Z AIRCRAFT RAOB FROM DALLAS LOVE FIELD OBSERVED A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW...BUT VERY COLD...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER NORTH TEXAS. THE
LOWEST TEMPERATURE IN THE COLD AIR WAS OBSERVED AT -8 DEG C. ABOVE
THE FRONTAL INVERSION...THERE WAS STILL QUITE A WARM NOSE IN PLACE
WITH A TEMPERATURE OF PLUS 11 DEG C JUST ABOVE THE 850 MB LEVEL.
PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH THIS VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE FROM
ALOFT MUST BE IN A LIQUID FORM BEFORE REACHING THE LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR MASS. THIS SEEMINGLY LIMITS OUR PRECIPITATION OPTIONS TO
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET.
HOWEVER...TO THE WEST OF THE DFW AREA...SNOW IS BEING
CONSISTENTLY REPORTED FROM THE PUBLIC VIA SOCIAL MEDIA AND MPING
REPORTS. SO WHAT IS HAPPENING? WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW FOR
SURE...WHAT IS LIKELY TAKING PLACE IS THAT THE SHALLOW BUT VERY
COLD LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS HAS COOLED DOWN TO -10 DEG C OR BELOW TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA (WHERE WE HAVE AIRCRAFT
OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE). AT -10 DEG C TO APPROXIMATELY -20 DEG
C...WATER DROPLETS TEND TO CRYSTALLIZE INTO DENDRITE SHAPED
CRYSTALS. THE MIXTURE OF CRYSTALS AND LIQUID WATER THAT IS
SUPERCOOLED (BELOW FREEZING BUT STILL IN LIQUID FORM) PROMOTES THE
GROWTH OF THE DENDRITE CRYSTALS AT THE EXPENSE OF THE SUPERCOOLED
WATER DROPLETS...PROMOTING A PRECIPITATION TYPE PRIMARILY
DOMINATED BY SNOW AS OPPOSED TO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. AT ANY
RATE...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SNOW TO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS OUR LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS DOES IN FACT LOOK
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH VERY CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS PRETTY EXTRAORDINARY FOR NORTH TEXAS.
WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE FORECAST FOR SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TO ONE HALF INCH FOR THE ENTIRE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. LEFT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ALONE...OR SLIGHTLY DECREASED AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT
DUE TO A SEEMINGLY SMALLER WINDOW FOR TRUE FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO SLEET. SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LEAVE ROADWAYS VERY SLICK...ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THROWN INTO THE MIX. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS EVENT. ANYWHERE STORMS OCCUR...LOCALIZED
HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET ARE EXPECTED. MOST OF THESE SLEET
PRODUCING STORMS SHOULD BE CONTAINED WITHIN THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...HOWEVER ANYWHERE THERE IS A THUNDERSTORM AND THE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 20S...YOU CAN EXPECT QUICK SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN AN HOUR. THIS WILL
OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HAZARDOUS
ROADWAYS...REGARDLESS OF WHETHER YOU ARE IN A WINTER STORM WARNING
OR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
LASTLY...WHAT WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON ARE THOSE
COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WE DID NOT EXPAND
THE ADVISORY SOUTH JUST BEFORE NOON BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WERE
HOVERING NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. WE HAVE CONSISTENTLY HAD
REPORTS OF LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PRECIPITATION UNTIL
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 20S...SO WITH THOSE LOCATIONS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY HOLDING ON TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
30S...THOUGHT THAT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE IMPACTS ON AREA ROADWAYS
AT THIS TIME. THE PREVIOUS 48 HOURS SAW HIGHS INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS...SO IT REALLY WILL TAKE SOME COLD AIR FOR
IMPACTS TO BEGIN ACROSS THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN/LAMPASAS AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY FOR
TEMPERATURES THAT DROP INTO THE MID 20S WHILE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S EVENTUALLY...BUT MOST PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO END AS WE GET DRY SLOTTED FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THAT OCCURS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WINTER WEATHER
EVENT...AND BROADCAST OUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
PRIMARY CONCERN...WINTRY PRECIP.
METROPLEX TODAY...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET HAS FALLEN SINCE MID-MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROZEN. A STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND WILL INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WARM AIR ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION IS QUITE UNSTABLE...AND
SOME SLEET THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 1/2
INCH...BUT SOME HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR UNDER THE STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF METROPLEX TAF
SITES BY SUNSET.
WACO TODAY...
TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED BELOW FREEZING AT WACO. AS A RESULT...
THE INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FREEZING
RAIN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME ICE ACCUMULATION ON ELEVATED
SURFACES...THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE NORTH.
TONIGHT...
AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...A REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE TEENS (NEAR 20F AT WACO). WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
THE LATEST NAM/RAP LOOK REASONABLE WITH FRONTAL TIMING BUT ARE A
FEW DEGREES TOO WARM. OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND TIMING RELIES
ON A RAP/NAM BLEND WITH A FEW TWEAKS. ALL OTHER NON-WRF MODELS
INCLUDING THE OFTEN RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN TOO SLOW WITH THE
FRONT AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFICULT TO TRUST WITH TODAYS FORECAST.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS GOING TO BE THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AT 5 AM...THE FREEZE LINE HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE NW CWA AND WILL
BE CROSSING THROUGH THE METROPLEX FROM NW TO SE IN THE EARLY-MID
MORNING HOURS. BY NOON...EXPECT THE FREEZE LINE TO BE NEAR A
LAMPASAS TO HILLSBORO TO CANTON LINE. FREEZING TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
ENCOMPASS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG TODAY...AND BY MIDDAY...TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE NW ZONES...WITH
TEMPS IN THE 20S REACHING THE METROPLEX. THESE TEMPS IN THE 20S
REMOVE ANY CONCERN ABOUT WHETHER ROAD SURFACES WOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION AFTER OUR
WARM WEATHER. STILL...BRIDGES/OVERPASSES WILL BE FIRST TO GO.
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT THIS MORNING...PRECIP
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
GENTLY LIFTED ABOVE THE VERY SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION. ICE
ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. ALL MODEL QPF THIS MORNING LOOKS WAY TOO
HIGH. SO PRETTY MUCH EXPECT THE ENTIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AREA TO CONTEND WITH THIS VERY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW SPINNING THROUGH
ARIZONA...WHICH WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
CRITICAL IN ORDER TO GENERATE ANY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE REGION NEAR 700MB
WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE LIFTED FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS
WOULD FAVOR GENERALLY THE REGION EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE CAP WILL
BE WEAKEST. IN ADDITION...THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUT
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS IN A PRIME AREA FOR THE
DRY SLOT TO ROTATE IN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ALL MORNING SUGGESTING THAT THE CAP WILL HOLD ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND THE ARRIVING DRY SLOT WILL END ANY
OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY. THE RAP KEEPS ALL
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. MANY OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS INDICATE ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AROUND 18Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST. WE WILL
FOLLOW THEIR FORECAST...WHICH MEANS THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BE A
TRANSITION ZONE WHERE STREAKS OF LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF FREEZING
OR FROZEN PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE JUST A FEW MILES FROM ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS OF ICE. AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL BE PRESENT
TODAY...ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS EVEN SOME WITH
QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE ISSUE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM IS GOING TO BE
THE LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY IN
THE FORM OF SLEET WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. HOWEVER WITH SUCH
WARM TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION IT IS POSSIBLE PRECIP
TYPE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE OF ELEVATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AND METROPLEX...SEE NO
REASON TO EXPAND THE WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST
ZONES WESTWARD. AGAIN...THIS AREA WILL SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF HEAVY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WHERE ANY ISOLATED STORMS START TO
DEVELOP. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL FILL IN AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ZONES. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
NORTHEAST ZONES LOOKS REASONABLE FOR ACCUMULATION OF SLEET UP TO A
HALF INCH AND ICE AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AREA...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
HIGH...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND LIMIT THE ACCUMULATION SO
AN EXPANSION OF THE WARNING IS NOT NEEDED THERE.
EXPECT THE DRY SLOT TO END ALL PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. WACO/TEMPLE
MAY GET A BRIEF SHOT AT SOME FREEZING RAIN TODAY...BUT BELIEVE THE
CAP WILL HOLD THERE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN.
EVENT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO EXPAND ADVISORY DOWN THERE NOW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
TEXAS WITH SOME LOW 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. NORTH WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH WILL PUT WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20
AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE
COLD ON MONDAY AS MODERATION OF THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE
SLOW DUE TO MORNING CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION. NORTH WINDS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AND SOME AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP PUSH
HIGHS UP INTO THE 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WHILE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
BUT INCREASING CLOUDS SOUTH OF I-20 AROUND MIDNIGHT WILL PUT THE
BRAKES ON RADIATIVE HEAT LOSS. TO THE NORTH OF I-20...SKIES SHOULD
STAY AT LEAST PARTLY CLEAR...SO LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S THERE. THE INCREASING CLOUDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT TAPS INTO SOME MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND
DRAGS IT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH SATURATION OCCURRING FROM
700-500MB. THIS SATURATION OCCURS IN THE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WHICH SUGGESTS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST. WILL CONFINE POPS TO THE REGION SOUTH OF I-20 TUESDAY
MORNING AS THERE IS NO MODEL GUIDANCE THAT BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WHILE 850MB TEMPS WILL HAVE
WARMED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS TIME...THE SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THUS EXPECT A MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL SLOW WARMING OF THE LOW LEVELS VIA WARM
ADVECTION HELPS PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING.
ANY PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST BY MIDDAY. POPS WERE KEPT GENERALLY ON THE LOW SIDE AS
THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE MODEL HOLDOUTS ON THIS EVENT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS EVENT MORE CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT
DAY FOR A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS SURFACE TEMPS LOOK
LIKE THEY COULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ICE BRIDGES/OVERPASSES TUESDAY
MORNING IF PRECIP DOES IN FACT MATERIALIZE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
TROUGH WILL DIG. WILL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY IN
CASE AN AGGRESSIVE ECMWF-LIKE FORECAST VERIFIES. TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...SO JUST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS IF ANYTHING AT THIS POINT. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR THURSDAY. TEMPS
WILL WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ORGANIZING IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 60S ON
THURSDAY AND CREST AROUND 70 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN THERE IS
POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WITH THE GFS A
NOTABLE FAST OUTLIER. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH ALIGNS BETTER
WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THIS MEANS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
SATURDAY WITH A COOL DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE ECMWF HAS
HAD A COUPLE RUNS WHERE IT DROPPED A PIECE OF ENERGY SOUTHWEST INTO
THE BAJA REGION WHICH WOULD GIVE US A CHANCE OF RAIN AND CLOUDY
WEATHER HERE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THIS SOLUTION LOOKS A LITTLE ODD AT
THIS POINT. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND PUT TEMPS BETWEEN
THE COOLER ECMWF AND WARMER GFS.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 17 33 26 45 36 / 10 0 10 10 10
WACO, TX 20 37 28 45 34 / 10 0 20 30 10
PARIS, TX 14 32 23 45 30 / 70 0 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 15 32 22 46 32 / 10 0 10 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 15 32 23 44 31 / 30 0 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 17 33 27 45 36 / 20 0 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 17 33 25 45 34 / 40 0 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 20 36 27 44 35 / 30 0 10 30 10
TEMPLE, TX 20 38 28 46 36 / 10 0 20 30 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 15 35 23 48 33 / 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ093>095-
103>107-118>121-133-134.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-
092-100>102-115>117-122-123-129>132-135-141>146.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1233 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKIES ARE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE OUT WEST SO HAVE LEFT AFTERNOON HIGHS ALONE FOR NOW. TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE VICTORIA REGION AND IMMEDIATE COAST. LINE OF SHOWERS
WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY IMPACT THE
VICTORIA REGION JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN UPDATE TO TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
ALIGN WINDS WITH CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGED
WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH TO THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING...AND LOCATED NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO ATTM. PRIOR TO FROPA...
IMPROVING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT LRD...AND PERHAPS ALI AS CLEARING
LINES MOVES TO THE EAST. CURRENT THINKING VCT/CRP WILL REMAIN AT
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST HRRR DATA.
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. LIMITED
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE VCT TERMINAL AS FINE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL
MOSTLY LIKELY IMPACT THE VCT CROSSROADS REGION. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35
KNOTS AT TIMES AT CRP...AND AROUND 30 KNOTS AT THE OTHER
TERMINALS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO IFR AT ALI/CRP/VCT AND
REMAIN MVFR AT LRD. GUSTY WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TOWARDS END OF THE TAF CYCLE...BUT ANTICIPATE LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG
TOUGH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...IFR TO LIFR CIGS FOR EASTERN SITES THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE. ALI/LRD SITES CURRENTLY VFR...BUT COULD STILL
BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT ALL BUT
LRD TAF SITES TO BE MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THICK
STRATUS DECK AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALSO SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS. COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR VCT SITE. COLD FRONT
MOVES IN BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AS OF 4AM COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY BETWEEN DALLAS AND WACO. NAM HAS PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
FRONTAL POSITION/TIMING...WITH MOST OTHER MODELS LAGGING A BIT
BEHIND. RUC/RAP MODEL HOWEVER A BIT AHEAD OF NAM. HAVE BASED
TIMING FORECAST ON A BLEND OF THE RAP AND NAM. THIS HAS THE FRONT
ON THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 21Z...AND
THROUGH ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BY 00Z. WILL SEE THE
FRONT THROUGH LAREDO BY AROUND 00-01Z...AND THROUGH CORPUS 01-02Z.
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
SHOULD BE A WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 EXPECTED AGAIN OUT WEST. 925 AND 850 WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND A MAINLY SOUTH WIND DOES POSE THE POSSIBILITY OF
EVEN WARMER TEMPS...HOWEVER STRATUS SHOULD TEMPER THIS SOME.
WEAKENED CAP AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN PROXIMITY OF NORTHEAST ZONES
WILL BRING THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED POPS MUCH...MAINLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S...BUT HAVE A BIT OF 40 POP ALONG NORTH EAST
BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. POPS DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING WILL LINGER 20 POPS IN SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S FOR A LOT OF THE AREA. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE (NAM BASED) HAS LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST
ZONES...BUT WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER THINK WE PROBABLY CAN NOT
REACH THAT. HIGHS MONDAY IN SOME AREAS WILL BE 40 DEGREES LOWER THAN
HIGHS ON SUNDAY. COULD SEE COLDEST HIGHS IN SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO
THICKER CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING RAIN CHANCES. MAINLY HIGHS IN THE
40S MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT STRONGER ACCORDING TO 00Z ECMWF/03Z SREF.
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH STEADILY INCREASING
MOISTURE ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. RAISED POPS
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT TO 40-50
PERCENT. WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING...MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ONLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THAT WILL DEEPEN INTO
A LOW AS IT MOVES INTO LOUISIANA THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE GULF
WATERS. DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN...PUT IN A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.
MARINE...HAVE REPLACED GALE WATCH WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT/MONDAY. WHILE SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE/LIKELY...THINK MAINLY CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.
SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO COME DOWN
MONDAY. OFFSHORE ZONES MAY NEED SCA EXTENDED BEYOND 00Z
TUESDAY...BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE BEHAVIOR OF WAVES BEFORE TRYING TO
GET TOO DETAILED ON TIMING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 36 47 38 46 / 30 30 10 40 50
VICTORIA 77 32 47 36 43 / 30 40 10 50 50
LAREDO 90 41 46 39 49 / 20 10 20 30 20
ALICE 87 37 46 37 45 / 20 20 10 30 50
ROCKPORT 74 34 48 39 47 / 20 30 10 50 50
COTULLA 86 37 49 37 47 / 20 10 10 30 20
KINGSVILLE 85 37 45 38 46 / 20 30 20 30 50
NAVY CORPUS 72 38 46 41 48 / 20 30 20 40 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
TB/78...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1219 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
PRIMARY CONCERN...WINTRY PRECIP.
METROPLEX TODAY...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET HAS FALLEN SINCE MID-MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROZEN. A STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND WILL INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WARM AIR ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION IS QUITE UNSTABLE...AND
SOME SLEET THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 1/2
INCH...BUT SOME HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR UNDER THE STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF METROPLEX TAF
SITES BY SUNSET.
WACO TODAY...
TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED BELOW FREEZING AT WACO. AS A RESULT...
THE INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FREEZING
RAIN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME ICE ACCUMULATION ON ELEVATED
SURFACES...THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE NORTH.
TONIGHT...
AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...A REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE TEENS (NEAR 20F AT WACO). WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/
THE LATEST NAM/RAP LOOK REASONABLE WITH FRONTAL TIMING BUT ARE A
FEW DEGREES TOO WARM. OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND TIMING RELIES
ON A RAP/NAM BLEND WITH A FEW TWEAKS. ALL OTHER NON-WRF MODELS
INCLUDING THE OFTEN RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN TOO SLOW WITH THE
FRONT AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFICULT TO TRUST WITH TODAYS FORECAST.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS GOING TO BE THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AT 5 AM...THE FREEZE LINE HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE NW CWA AND WILL
BE CROSSING THROUGH THE METROPLEX FROM NW TO SE IN THE EARLY-MID
MORNING HOURS. BY NOON...EXPECT THE FREEZE LINE TO BE NEAR A
LAMPASAS TO HILLSBORO TO CANTON LINE. FREEZING TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
ENCOMPASS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG TODAY...AND BY MIDDAY...TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE NW ZONES...WITH
TEMPS IN THE 20S REACHING THE METROPLEX. THESE TEMPS IN THE 20S
REMOVE ANY CONCERN ABOUT WHETHER ROAD SURFACES WOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION AFTER OUR
WARM WEATHER. STILL...BRIDGES/OVERPASSES WILL BE FIRST TO GO.
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT THIS MORNING...PRECIP
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
GENTLY LIFTED ABOVE THE VERY SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION. ICE
ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. ALL MODEL QPF THIS MORNING LOOKS WAY TOO
HIGH. SO PRETTY MUCH EXPECT THE ENTIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AREA TO CONTEND WITH THIS VERY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW SPINNING THROUGH
ARIZONA...WHICH WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
CRITICAL IN ORDER TO GENERATE ANY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE REGION NEAR 700MB
WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE LIFTED FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS
WOULD FAVOR GENERALLY THE REGION EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE CAP WILL
BE WEAKEST. IN ADDITION...THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUT
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS IN A PRIME AREA FOR THE
DRY SLOT TO ROTATE IN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ALL MORNING SUGGESTING THAT THE CAP WILL HOLD ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND THE ARRIVING DRY SLOT WILL END ANY
OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY. THE RAP KEEPS ALL
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. MANY OF THE HI-RES WRF MODELS INDICATE ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AROUND 18Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST. WE WILL
FOLLOW THEIR FORECAST...WHICH MEANS THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BE A
TRANSITION ZONE WHERE STREAKS OF LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF FREEZING
OR FROZEN PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE JUST A FEW MILES FROM ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS OF ICE. AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL BE PRESENT
TODAY...ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS EVEN SOME WITH
QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE ISSUE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM IS GOING TO BE
THE LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY IN
THE FORM OF SLEET WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. HOWEVER WITH SUCH
WARM TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION IT IS POSSIBLE PRECIP
TYPE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE OF ELEVATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AND METROPLEX...SEE NO
REASON TO EXPAND THE WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST
ZONES WESTWARD. AGAIN...THIS AREA WILL SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF HEAVY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WHERE ANY ISOLATED STORMS START TO
DEVELOP. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL FILL IN AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ZONES. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
NORTHEAST ZONES LOOKS REASONABLE FOR ACCUMULATION OF SLEET UP TO A
HALF INCH AND ICE AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AREA...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
HIGH...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND LIMIT THE ACCUMULATION SO
AN EXPANSION OF THE WARNING IS NOT NEEDED THERE.
EXPECT THE DRY SLOT TO END ALL PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. WACO/TEMPLE
MAY GET A BRIEF SHOT AT SOME FREEZING RAIN TODAY...BUT BELIEVE THE
CAP WILL HOLD THERE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN.
EVENT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO EXPAND ADVISORY DOWN THERE NOW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
TEXAS WITH SOME LOW 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. NORTH WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH WILL PUT WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20
AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE
COLD ON MONDAY AS MODERATION OF THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE
SLOW DUE TO MORNING CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION. NORTH WINDS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AND SOME AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP PUSH
HIGHS UP INTO THE 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WHILE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
BUT INCREASING CLOUDS SOUTH OF I-20 AROUND MIDNIGHT WILL PUT THE
BRAKES ON RADIATIVE HEAT LOSS. TO THE NORTH OF I-20...SKIES SHOULD
STAY AT LEAST PARTLY CLEAR...SO LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S THERE. THE INCREASING CLOUDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT TAPS INTO SOME MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND
DRAGS IT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH SATURATION OCCURRING FROM
700-500MB. THIS SATURATION OCCURS IN THE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WHICH SUGGESTS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST. WILL CONFINE POPS TO THE REGION SOUTH OF I-20 TUESDAY
MORNING AS THERE IS NO MODEL GUIDANCE THAT BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY
INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WHILE 850MB TEMPS WILL HAVE
WARMED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS TIME...THE SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THUS EXPECT A MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL SLOW WARMING OF THE LOW LEVELS VIA WARM
ADVECTION HELPS PUSH SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING.
ANY PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST BY MIDDAY. POPS WERE KEPT GENERALLY ON THE LOW SIDE AS
THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE MODEL HOLDOUTS ON THIS EVENT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS EVENT MORE CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT
DAY FOR A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS SURFACE TEMPS LOOK
LIKE THEY COULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ICE BRIDGES/OVERPASSES TUESDAY
MORNING IF PRECIP DOES IN FACT MATERIALIZE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
TROUGH WILL DIG. WILL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY IN
CASE AN AGGRESSIVE ECMWF-LIKE FORECAST VERIFIES. TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...SO JUST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS IF ANYTHING AT THIS POINT. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR THURSDAY. TEMPS
WILL WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ORGANIZING IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 60S ON
THURSDAY AND CREST AROUND 70 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN THERE IS
POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WITH THE GFS A
NOTABLE FAST OUTLIER. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH ALIGNS BETTER
WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THIS MEANS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
SATURDAY WITH A COOL DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE ECMWF HAS
HAD A COUPLE RUNS WHERE IT DROPPED A PIECE OF ENERGY SOUTHWEST INTO
THE BAJA REGION WHICH WOULD GIVE US A CHANCE OF RAIN AND CLOUDY
WEATHER HERE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THIS SOLUTION LOOKS A LITTLE ODD AT
THIS POINT. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND PUT TEMPS BETWEEN
THE COOLER ECMWF AND WARMER GFS.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 35 17 33 26 45 / 80 10 0 10 10
WACO, TX 43 20 37 28 45 / 80 10 0 20 30
PARIS, TX 33 14 32 23 45 / 100 70 0 10 10
DENTON, TX 32 15 32 22 46 / 80 10 0 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 34 15 32 23 44 / 90 30 0 10 10
DALLAS, TX 36 17 33 27 45 / 80 20 0 10 10
TERRELL, TX 40 17 33 25 45 / 90 40 0 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 49 20 36 27 44 / 90 30 0 10 30
TEMPLE, TX 61 20 38 28 46 / 80 10 0 20 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 30 15 35 23 48 / 80 10 0 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ091>093-100>104-115>123-129>135-141>146.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ094-095-
105>107.
&&
$$
25/69
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1237 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING CHANGING RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT QUICKLY TO SNOW AND SLEET MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID-WEEK BEFORE A STRONG STORM SYSTEMS MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
AND/OR A WINTRY MIX EVENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST SUNDAY...
A COMBINATION PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE EAST AND INCREASING WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS HELPING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD
TRENDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE
INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA BY A FEW MORE DEGREES.
AREAS NEAR DANVILLE WILL BE NEAR 70 DEGREES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE WEST...WE THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS
STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS AREA IS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SO ONCE IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY BLUEFIELD TO LEXINGTON...THERE
LIKELY WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN THE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THEN REBOUND A LITTLE BEFORE THEN NEXT WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS
SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE GUSTS
CURRENTLY ARE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.
AS OF 935 AM EST SUNDAY...
MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ALREADY HAVE REACHED THE LOWER 50S OVER
SOME PARTS OF THE AREA. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF
AREAS THAT START GETTING RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED EXPECTED HIGHS
BY A FEW DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS. REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
RAIN...THE FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT ONSET IN THE NORTH TWO TO
THREE HOURS SLOWER THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED BASED UPON THE LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND THE
RNK WRF-ARW MODELS.
AS OF 530 AM EST SUNDAY...
VERY COMPLICATED WINTER EVENT TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. FOR TODAY...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN WV BY THE END OF THE DAY
FIGHTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. OVERNIGHT...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
COLD/DENSE ARCTIC AIR WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
PA DOWN THROUGH VA EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MEANWHILE...AN
EXTENSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS EVIDENT FROM THE SW STATES EXTENDING
ENE TOWARD PA/OH...ANCHORED FROM A DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVING
EASTWARD FROM THE SW U.S. WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE ARCTIC FRONT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD. THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES. WAVES OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY...SLOWLY PULLING THE FRONT AND THE ATTENDANT DENSE
ARCTIC FURTHER SOUTHWARD...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA
BOUNDARY THROUGH 06Z. OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH POTENTIALLY UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN BY 06Z IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE WV COUNTIES INTO BATH COUNTY VA.
SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK THE ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN
GREENBRIER...CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH ARCTIC AIR SURGING IN FROM THE NW TOWARD THE ALLEGHANY FRONT
THROUGH SUMMERS/MERCER/MONROE...AND THEN ALSO FROM THE NE DOWN
THROUGH THE PIEDMONT. BETWEEN 12Z-14Z...ALL PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
I-64 SHOULD BE SNOW...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET POSSIBLE DURING
THE CHANGEOVER. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CORE OF THE BEST
PCPN TRACKING ESE ROUGHLY FROM LWB AT 12Z TO LYH BY 15Z. THE FINAL
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SE OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...TAKING THE LAST REMNANTS OF THE PCPN WITH IT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. UPSLOPE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AS THE
SFC WINDS VEER QUICKLY AROUND TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND LARGE SFC HIGH MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD PA
UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS
ANOMALOUS AND HAS RESULTED IN AN ANOMALOUS WARNING/ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION. AFTER EXTENSIVE COORDINATION ONCE AGAIN WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND IN CONSIDERATION OF THE ABOVE
SCENARIO...HAVE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS WINTER STORM WATCH TO A
WARNING AND ADDED SEVERAL PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE COMBINED
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MEET WARNING CRITERIA. THUS...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM HINTON...TO ROANOKE...TO LYNCHBURG...TO
CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE...ALL COUNTIES ARE UNDER A WARNING...WITH AN
EARLIER START TIME FOR THOSE WEST OF I-81. SOUTH OF THIS
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SW VA AND NW NC...HAVE POSTED AN
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY...WHERE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. COUNTIES THAT STILL MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING INCLUDE HALIFAX AND DANVILLE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. TEMPS WILL COOL LAST IN THE SW AREAS AND PCPN
WILL BE THE LEAST THERE AS WELL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL NOT ALLOW SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO REACH THE SW COUNTIES
BEFORE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING LATE MONDAY MORNING...THEN THE
PCPN EXITS TO THE EAST. EVEN PATRICK AND SURRY COUNTY ARE
QUESTIONABLE FOR MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND VERY COLD WITH A STRONG NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND MONDAY. MODEL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS AS FAR SOUTH AS DAN/LYH/ROA BY AFTERNOON SEEMED
INCREDULOUS...BUT POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR.
HAVE RAISED THESE UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN CONSIDERATION OF TIME OF
YEAR.
FINALLY...STORM TOTAL QPF STILL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY 1 INCH OR
LESS...AND WITH POTENTIALLY 1/2 OF THIS FALLING AS FROZEN
PCPN...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...
REMAINING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...LIKELY TO BE CONFINED EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AFTER SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THAT THEN LEAVES US
TO DEAL WITH THE NOT-SO-SPRING-LIKE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BUILDING
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A 1030+ ARCTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC TO BUTT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN
A CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN. THIS AIRMASS WILL USHER IN EXCEPTIONALLY
COLD AIR FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU CONSIDER THE
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH NEW SNOW COVER...DECREASING WIND SPEEDS AND
DECREASING CLOUD COVER...EXPECT MONDAY NIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. FORECAST
MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT THE ARCTIC AIR IS VERY
SHALLOW...SUCH THAT MANY OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL BE WARMER THAN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY BOTTOMS AND THE PIEDMONT.
THE ARCTIC WEDGE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. FORECAST MODELS TYPICALLY UNDERESTIMATE THE
STRENGTH OF THESE ARCTIC AIRMASSES...PRODUCING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
TOO WARM. CONSIDERING THAT LITTLE MELTING OF SNOW WILL TAKE PLACE IN
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...HAVE UNDERCUT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE THE WEDGE WILL BE STRONGEST...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL WARMING
WILL STILL TAKE PLACE.
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING FOR TUESDAY...KEEPING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CONFINED IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S
SOUTH...WHILE INCREASED SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S...WITH WARMER RIDGE TOPS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...
A DEVELOPING GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST ON THURSDAY...THEN PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS AND ECM CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH THE GULF LOW ALONG
WITH ITS TRACK AND TIMING. THE GFS DEVELOPS A COASTAL LOW OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLIER AND LIFTS ITS NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS THE GULF LOW EAST
TOWARDS FLORIDA THEN PIVOTS NORTHEAST. THE ECM IS MUCH DEEPER AND
FORMS A CLOSED LOW WHICH MOVES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES A CAROLINA NOR-
EASTER. LEANED TOWARDS HPCGUIDE ENSEMBLE FOR POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS GULF SYSTEM. HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY MORNING AND
TAPER OFF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.
PTYPE REMAINS A TOUGH CALL BECAUSE OF TIMING ISSUES AND THERE ARE
STILL NUMEROUS QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM. DETAILS OF
THE TRACK...QPF AND TEMPERATURES PROFILES WILL BECOME CLEARER WITH
TIME. THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE RAIN AND SNOW WITH
THIS WINTER EVENT GENERALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ACCUMULATING
SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION...ENABLING
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST SUNDAY...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A SHARP EDGE BETWEEN MVFR CEILINGS AT BLF
AND LWB AND VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST. THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS PUSH EAST AND SPREAD
THE CLOUD COVER TO THE REMAINING TAF SITES BY EARLY EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AT BLF/LWB/BCB AND THIS EVENING
AT ROA/LYH/DAN. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS/VISBYS TO TRANSITION TO IFR
CEILINGS/VISBYS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS AT BLF/LWB AS EARLY AS 23Z...BCB/ROA/LYH BY
05Z AND DAN AROUND 09Z. ONCE THE IFR CEILINGS/VISBYS TAKE HOLD THEY
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES AT ROA/LYH...6-8 INCHES AT LWB...2-4
INCHES AT BLF/BCB AND 1-2 INCHES AT DAN.
ADJUSTED THE WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON AS GUSTS OF 15-30KTS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT MOST OF THE TAF
LOCATIONS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AND HOLD IN THAT POSITION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION EXITS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING AND ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. ALL TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES AT THE END OF THE WEEK
WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISBYS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ018-
022>024-034-035-045>047-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ019-
020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
VAZ007-010>014-016-017-032-033-043-044-058.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ003>006.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ043>045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...DS/RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...CF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1228 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING CHANGING RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT QUICKLY TO SNOW AND SLEET MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID-WEEK BEFORE A STRONG STORM SYSTEMS MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
AND/OR A WINTRY MIX EVENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST SUNDAY...
A COMBINATION PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE EAST AND INCREASING WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS HELPING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD
TRENDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE
INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA BY A FEW MORE DEGREES.
AREAS NEAR DANVILLE WILL BE NEAR 70 DEGREES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE WEST...WE THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS
STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS AREA IS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SO ONCE IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY BLUEFIELD TO LEXINGTON...THERE
LIKELY WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN THE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THEN REBOUND A LITTLE BEFORE THEN NEXT WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE WINDS
SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE GUSTS
CURRENTLY ARE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.
AS OF 935 AM EST SUNDAY...
MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ALREADY HAVE REACHED THE LOWER 50S OVER
SOME PARTS OF THE AREA. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF
AREAS THAT START GETTING RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED EXPECTED HIGHS
BY A FEW DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS. REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
RAIN...THE FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT ONSET IN THE NORTH TWO TO
THREE HOURS SLOWER THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED BASED UPON THE LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND THE
RNK WRF-ARW MODELS.
AS OF 530 AM EST SUNDAY...
VERY COMPLICATED WINTER EVENT TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. FOR TODAY...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN WV BY THE END OF THE DAY
FIGHTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. OVERNIGHT...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
COLD/DENSE ARCTIC AIR WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
PA DOWN THROUGH VA EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MEANWHILE...AN
EXTENSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS EVIDENT FROM THE SW STATES EXTENDING
ENE TOWARD PA/OH...ANCHORED FROM A DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVING
EASTWARD FROM THE SW U.S. WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE ARCTIC FRONT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD. THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES. WAVES OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY...SLOWLY PULLING THE FRONT AND THE ATTENDANT DENSE
ARCTIC FURTHER SOUTHWARD...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA
BOUNDARY THROUGH 06Z. OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH POTENTIALLY UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN BY 06Z IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE WV COUNTIES INTO BATH COUNTY VA.
SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK THE ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN
GREENBRIER...CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH ARCTIC AIR SURGING IN FROM THE NW TOWARD THE ALLEGHANY FRONT
THROUGH SUMMERS/MERCER/MONROE...AND THEN ALSO FROM THE NE DOWN
THROUGH THE PIEDMONT. BETWEEN 12Z-14Z...ALL PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
I-64 SHOULD BE SNOW...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET POSSIBLE DURING
THE CHANGEOVER. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CORE OF THE BEST
PCPN TRACKING ESE ROUGHLY FROM LWB AT 12Z TO LYH BY 15Z. THE FINAL
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SE OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...TAKING THE LAST REMNANTS OF THE PCPN WITH IT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. UPSLOPE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AS THE
SFC WINDS VEER QUICKLY AROUND TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND LARGE SFC HIGH MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD PA
UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS
ANOMALOUS AND HAS RESULTED IN AN ANOMALOUS WARNING/ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION. AFTER EXTENSIVE COORDINATION ONCE AGAIN WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND IN CONSIDERATION OF THE ABOVE
SCENARIO...HAVE UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS WINTER STORM WATCH TO A
WARNING AND ADDED SEVERAL PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHERE COMBINED
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MEET WARNING CRITERIA. THUS...ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM HINTON...TO ROANOKE...TO LYNCHBURG...TO
CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE...ALL COUNTIES ARE UNDER A WARNING...WITH AN
EARLIER START TIME FOR THOSE WEST OF I-81. SOUTH OF THIS
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SW VA AND NW NC...HAVE POSTED AN
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY...WHERE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. COUNTIES THAT STILL MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING INCLUDE HALIFAX AND DANVILLE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. TEMPS WILL COOL LAST IN THE SW AREAS AND PCPN
WILL BE THE LEAST THERE AS WELL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL NOT ALLOW SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO REACH THE SW COUNTIES
BEFORE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING LATE MONDAY MORNING...THEN THE
PCPN EXITS TO THE EAST. EVEN PATRICK AND SURRY COUNTY ARE
QUESTIONABLE FOR MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND VERY COLD WITH A STRONG NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND MONDAY. MODEL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS AS FAR SOUTH AS DAN/LYH/ROA BY AFTERNOON SEEMED
INCREDULOUS...BUT POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR.
HAVE RAISED THESE UP ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN CONSIDERATION OF TIME OF
YEAR.
FINALLY...STORM TOTAL QPF STILL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY 1 INCH OR
LESS...AND WITH POTENTIALLY 1/2 OF THIS FALLING AS FROZEN
PCPN...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...
REMAINING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...LIKELY TO BE CONFINED EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AFTER SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THAT THEN LEAVES US
TO DEAL WITH THE NOT-SO-SPRING-LIKE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BUILDING
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A 1030+ ARCTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC TO BUTT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS IN
A CLASSIC WEDGE PATTERN. THIS AIRMASS WILL USHER IN EXCEPTIONALLY
COLD AIR FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU CONSIDER THE
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH NEW SNOW COVER...DECREASING WIND SPEEDS AND
DECREASING CLOUD COVER...EXPECT MONDAY NIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. FORECAST
MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT THE ARCTIC AIR IS VERY
SHALLOW...SUCH THAT MANY OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL BE WARMER THAN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY BOTTOMS AND THE PIEDMONT.
THE ARCTIC WEDGE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. FORECAST MODELS TYPICALLY UNDERESTIMATE THE
STRENGTH OF THESE ARCTIC AIRMASSES...PRODUCING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
TOO WARM. CONSIDERING THAT LITTLE MELTING OF SNOW WILL TAKE PLACE IN
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...HAVE UNDERCUT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE THE WEDGE WILL BE STRONGEST...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL WARMING
WILL STILL TAKE PLACE.
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING FOR TUESDAY...KEEPING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CONFINED IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S
SOUTH...WHILE INCREASED SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S...WITH WARMER RIDGE TOPS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...
A DEVELOPING GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST ON THURSDAY...THEN PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS AND ECM CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH THE GULF LOW ALONG
WITH ITS TRACK AND TIMING. THE GFS DEVELOPS A COASTAL LOW OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLIER AND LIFTS ITS NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS THE GULF LOW EAST
TOWARDS FLORIDA THEN PIVOTS NORTHEAST. THE ECM IS MUCH DEEPER AND
FORMS A CLOSED LOW WHICH MOVES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES A CAROLINA NOR-
EASTER. LEANED TOWARDS HPCGUIDE ENSEMBLE FOR POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS GULF SYSTEM. HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ON
THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY MORNING AND
TAPER OFF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.
PTYPE REMAINS A TOUGH CALL BECAUSE OF TIMING ISSUES AND THERE ARE
STILL NUMEROUS QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED WITH THIS SYSTEM. DETAILS OF
THE TRACK...QPF AND TEMPERATURES PROFILES WILL BECOME CLEARER WITH
TIME. THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE RAIN AND SNOW WITH
THIS WINTER EVENT GENERALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ACCUMULATING
SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION...ENABLING
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 545 AM EST SUNDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE POOLED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...JUST CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER AS OF
5 AM SUNDAY. EXPECT THESE MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT AND SCATTER
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL BRIEFLY ACROSS CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS
DELAY WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
POSSIBLY WITH A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE
FRONT RESUMES ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH...AFFECTING LWB AND BLF WITH
OCCASIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A RAPID PUSH SOUTHWARD BEGINNING AROUND
03/00Z...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN ITS WAKE. DAN WILL BE LAST TO EXPERIENCE
FROPA...OCCURRING SHORTLY AFTER 03/06Z. AS ARCTIC AIR BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE RAIN CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN...BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES COLD ENOUGH
FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. AT THIS TIME...ONLY LWB
AND BLF ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE WINTRY PRECIPITATION BY
03/12Z...WITH ROA...BCB AND LYH EXPECTED TO SEE A CHANGE OVER
SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND DAN BEFORE 13/18Z.
3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT DAN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES AT DAN.
PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY EXIT THE FORECAST REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND
ALLOWS FOR VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TRACKS ALONG THE
EAST COAST.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ018-
022>024-034-035-045>047-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ019-
020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
VAZ007-010>014-016-017-032-033-043-044-058.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ003>006.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ043>045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...DS/RAB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1229 PM PST Sun Mar 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A robust and very moist series of storms will move through the
Pacific Northwest beginning today and continuing through
Thursday. This will result in widespread moderate snow today and
Monday. Each additional storm will be warmer than the last with
snow turning to rain at most locations except the higher mountains
between Tuesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update #4. Winter weather advisory was allowed to expire for the
L-C valley area. Temperatures have generally warmed to 32F or
warmer, so freezing rain isn`t expected to be a problem except in
localized cold pockets.
Radar shows an east-west band of heavier snow from Wilbur to St
Maries, that will move through the Spokane/CdA metro area over the
next hour. This band will probably put down a quick inch of snow.
Pendleton and Portland radars still showing good coverage, so more
snow to come. Comparison of the radar to the HRRR model shows that
the HRRR may be about an hour slow. So we could see the front
arrive at the WA/ID border by 7pm, which would end most of the
snow/rain over Washington. RJ
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Precipitation will develop over the TAF sites today and remain
steady through the afternoon and early evening. Expect IFR to LIFR
conditions through this event at the GEG/SFF/COE/MWH/EAT TAF
sites. As the snow ends this evening, we expect to see some -fzdz
for at least a few hours. To the south, PUW/LWS will have a
freezing rain situation with some IFR this afternoon, but then
improving a bit as the precipitation becomes all rain. RJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 22 22 35 33 43 34 / 100 100 50 50 50 30
Coeur d`Alene 21 21 34 32 43 33 / 100 100 70 60 50 50
Pullman 34 34 40 37 46 36 / 100 100 60 60 70 50
Lewiston 40 38 47 42 52 40 / 90 100 60 60 60 40
Colville 27 24 32 31 45 34 / 70 90 80 50 50 30
Sandpoint 18 18 31 30 41 33 / 100 100 90 70 60 60
Kellogg 24 24 33 32 40 33 / 100 100 90 80 100 70
Moses Lake 27 25 38 35 51 36 / 100 90 30 20 20 20
Wenatchee 24 23 33 33 47 36 / 80 100 40 40 20 30
Omak 27 25 28 28 46 35 / 10 100 80 30 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM PST this evening for Idaho
Palouse.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for Northern
Panhandle.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM PST Monday for Central Panhandle
Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for Okanogan
Highlands-Okanogan Valley.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM PST this evening for Washington
Palouse.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Moses
Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee
Area.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for Northeast
Mountains.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM PST Monday for Spokane Area.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Monday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades.
&&
$$
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN COLD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE HIGH...WITH READINGS A
FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ZERO DEGREE MARK. WIND CHILL
VALUES REMAIN IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AT MANY LOCATIONS OVER EAST-
CENTRAL/CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHER THAN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH
OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...THOUGH CIRRUS FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM
STORM SYSTEM IS CROSSING THE BORDER INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. OTHER
LOW STRATUS IS DRIFTING SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN SHORELINE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS ARE THE MAIN
FOCUS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES EAST TONITE.
TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE MOISTURE THAT IS APPROACHING NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR DRYING UP AS IT RUNS INTO THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW FEW TO SCT SKY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN CASE A LITTLE MOISTURE IS PICKED UP OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE NAM IS DEVELOPING A LAKE INDUCED
SURFACE TROUGH UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...MAY SEE SCT LAKE CLOUDS MOVE JUST INLAND ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD FLURRIES
INTO THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE THAT HAPPENING. THE OTHER ISSUE
IS TEMPS/WIND CHILL HEADLINES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AND THEN SLACKENS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH. CONDITIONS ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
DECOUPLING THAN LAST NIGHT AND WILL SHOW THAT TREND OCCURRING MAINLY
AFTER 06Z. THIS MAKES FOR A DILEMMA IN REGARDS TO WIND CHILL
HEADLINES...WHICH REQUIRE AT 3 KTS OF WIND. THINK THERE COULD BE A
FEW HOUR PERIOD OF WIND CHILL CRITERIA BEING MET BEFORE WINDS BECOME
CALM WITH VALUES FALLING BETWEEN 20 TO 30 BELOW. TOUGH TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT HEADLINES WITH SUCH A SHORT DURATION EVENT...EVEN
THOUGH THE CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE TANKING TEMPERATURES. AFTER
COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO ISSUE WIND CHILLS
HEADLINES TO KEEP THE MAP PRETTY. THE MIDNIGHT CREW CAN CANCEL
EARLY IF DESIRED. DROPPED LOWS BY PERHAPS A DEGREE IN SPOTS.
MONDAY...THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. UNDER PLENTY OF SUN...TEMPS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE LOWER TEENS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
NEAR ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES...
WHILE REMAINING BELOW NORM...MODERATE FROM WHAT WE HAVE TODAY.
PATTERN AMPLIFIES SOME TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGE REBUILDING
OVER THE WEST COAST AND TROFFING SETTING UP AGAIN OVER CENTRAL
U.S. IN LATER PERIODS FEATURE TO WATCH...SIG SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SYSTEM AND FOLLOW ON WEAKER WAVES TO
PUSH COLD FRONT THROUGH STATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCE
FOR PCPN THROUGH PERIOD. GULF MOISTURE NOT A PLAYER...SO AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO LOW
TO MID 20S.
IN NEAR TERM...TWO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO
TUE AND AGAIN TUE EVENING. SHORTWAVES COMBINE WITH WEAK WAA AND
JET ENERGY THESE PERIODS...WITH TUE NIGHT SYSTEM AFFECTING MAINLY
SOUTH PART OF CWA. FOR MON NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
YESTERDAY AND TODAY WITH CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING WEAK LIFT THROUGH
DEEP AREA OF GOOD DENDRICTIC GROWTH RATES. HAVE BUMPED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP GIVEN EXPECTED 20 TO 1 SNOW RATIOS. A GOOD INCH
TO UP TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WI LATE TUE
NIGHT...WED MORN...CLEARING SKIES OUT WED. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS EXPECTED WILL BRING SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES. LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY TODAY OF LAKE MI SHOWING
LIMITED OPEN WATER...SO WILL NOT PUT INTO GRIDS AT THIS TIME. GFS
STILL ODD MODEL OUT BEING QUICKER WITH NEXT PLAINS SYSTEM BRINGING
PCPN INTO REGION WED NIGHT. HAVE STAYED WITH MAJORITY WITH SLOWER
TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TONIGHT SINCE A FEW LAKE CLOUDS COULD
DRIFT INLAND. SCT VFR LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER N-C
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THEY WILL REACH
INTO RHINELANDER. WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
WIZ013-020>022-031-037>040-045-048>050-073-074.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR WIZ005-010>012-018-019-030-035-036.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MPC