Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/18/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
1011 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2014
.UPDATE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND JET THAT CAUSED YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT`S
WINDS MOVING EAST AND A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY.
OBSERVATIONS FROM ON AND AROUND LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE
SHOWING DECREASING WINDS HAVE CANCELED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORIES.
WINDS WILL STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL LAKE WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING. 20
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2014/
UPDATE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO KICK UP IN THE WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE AND
LATEST 3KM HRRR AND 06Z NAM SHOW WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH ON BOTH
LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKES WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH HERE AT
THE WFO. RAISED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING AS LAKE
WATERS WILL BE ROUGH AND CHOPPY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOHMANN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY WILL EXIT THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TODAY. THE STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT
INTO OREGON AND WASHINGTON THIS WEEK WITH SOME BREEZY AFTERNOONS,
BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF I-80 FOR
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM...
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WHERE THE WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT, SO
WILL EXPIRE THEM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA WITH
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH WITH ONLY LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2
INCHES.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM EXPECT SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TO LAST INTO
TUESDAY, BUT THE LOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN MODERATE. WHILE LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WINDS INCREASE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH 700 MB WINDS OF 25-40 KTS. THEREFORE, EXPECT AFTERNOONS TO BE
BREEZY WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD MAINLY BE OF
THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY, WITH MORE CLOUD COVER TUESDAY AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS MAY DRAG
A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH TO SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT MILD DAYS DUE TO DECENT MIXING FROM
THE WINDS. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT IT TO BE SEASONABLY COLD AS ONLY THIN
HIGH CLOUDS ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL MODERATE SOME DUE TO THICKER CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. WALLMANN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL
BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD BUT SHOULD END BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT EXITS AND UPPER FORCING DIMINISHES. AFTER
WEDNESDAY, A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AS RIDGE
BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
TRACK ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER THU-THU NIGHT. THEREFORE DRAMATICALLY CUT BACK ON
THE POPS, LEAVING ONLY A LOW END CHANCE FAR NORTHERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SOME
MID-HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME.
AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TODAY AS TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST.
RIDGE WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY THIS MORNING AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME TURBULENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA...MAINLY BEFORE
20Z. OTHERWISE VFR WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THERE
IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG AROUND KTRK LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOHMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
448 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2014
.UPDATE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO KICK UP IN THE WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE AND
LATEST 3KM HRRR AND 06Z NAM SHOW WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH ON BOTH
LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKES WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH HERE AT
THE WFO. RAISED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING AS LAKE
WATERS WILL BE ROUGH AND CHOPPY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOHMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY WILL EXIT THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TODAY. THE STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT
INTO OREGON AND WASHINGTON THIS WEEK WITH SOME BREEZY AFTERNOONS,
BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF I-80 FOR
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM...
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WHERE THE WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT, SO
WILL EXPIRE THEM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA WITH
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH WITH ONLY LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2
INCHES.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM EXPECT SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TO LAST INTO
TUESDAY, BUT THE LOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN MODERATE. WHILE LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WINDS INCREASE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH 700 MB WINDS OF 25-40 KTS. THEREFORE, EXPECT AFTERNOONS TO BE
BREEZY WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD MAINLY BE OF
THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY, WITH MORE CLOUD COVER TUESDAY AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS MAY DRAG
A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH TO SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT MILD DAYS DUE TO DECENT MIXING FROM
THE WINDS. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT IT TO BE SEASONABLY COLD AS ONLY THIN
HIGH CLOUDS ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL MODERATE SOME DUE TO THICKER CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. WALLMANN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL
BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD BUT SHOULD END BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT EXITS AND UPPER FORCING DIMINISHES. AFTER
WEDNESDAY, A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AS RIDGE
BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
TRACK ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER THU-THU NIGHT. THEREFORE DRAMATICALLY CUT BACK ON
THE POPS, LEAVING ONLY A LOW END CHANCE FAR NORTHERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SOME
MID-HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME.
AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TODAY AS TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST.
RIDGE WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY THIS MORNING AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME TURBULENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA...MAINLY BEFORE
20Z. OTHERWISE VFR WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THERE
IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG AROUND KTRK LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOHMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PYRAMID LAKE
IN NVZ004.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NEW YORK NY
413 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL USHER IN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE REGION
TUESDAY...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY. A
BRIEF RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER BRIEF RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY APPROACHING
FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR PLACED APPROACHING SHRTWV ENERGY ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND
PA THIS AFTN. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES THAT THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LIFT IS HOLDING TOGETHER....WITH SFC OBS INDICATING LIGHT
SNOWFALL RATES WITH VSBY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES. AS A RESULT HAVE
GONE CLOSE TO THE RUC AND FCST ISOLD-SCT SHSN THIS EVE. WHERE ANY
HEAVIER SHSN OCCUR...A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE. HRRR/NAM/RUN SUGGEST
THIS SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE LWR HUDSON VALLEY INTO CT AND LI.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NW WINDS MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY AFTER THE SHRTWV...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COASTS...BUT ACROSS MOST AREAS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN BEFORE
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SNOWCOVER. SKIES WILL CLEAR PER STLT
OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV
AND MET WITH A MANUAL DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.
BRIGHT AND SUNNY ON MON WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING CLR
SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE W BY
SUNSET. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE USED FOR TEMPS.
PACIFIC SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THEN APPROACHES MON
NGT. THE TREND WITH THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS WILL BE HIGHER AFTER THE SYSTEM EJECTS
ONTO THE PLAINS. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN SLIGHTLY...BUT SNOW
SHOULD REACH AREAS ALONG AND W OF THE HUDSON BY SUNRISE...WITH UP
TO AN INCH POSSIBLE BY 8AM TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SINUSOIDAL PATTERN ALOFT WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE REMAINS EVIDENT
AMONGST THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE MODELS OVERALL
CONTINUE TO CONVEY AN INCREASING AMPLITUDE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH A DEVELOPING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN U.S.
AND DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL U.S. A GRADUAL MODERATION OF
THE AIRMASS WILL THUS TAKE PLACE WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE PREVALENT MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.
IN THE LOCAL REGION...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL JET
LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL ENHANCE LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH AXIS
AND LEFT QUAD OF THE JET PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THE SURFACE...THE PARENT LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING RIGHT NEAR THE REGION. THE TRENDS HAVE
OSCILLATED NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH REGARDS TO
POSITION OF THE LOW NEAR THE REGION. HOWEVER...A TREND WITH COLDER
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND THEREBY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS
NOTED AND THIS WILL THEREFORE PROVIDE A GREATER MAGNITUDE OF
STEERING FLOW...ESSENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR THIS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN NATURE WITH A SMALL TIME SCALE EVENT. MODELS AGREE WITH A GENERAL
0.2 TO 0.3 INCH...TRENDED DOWN FROM 12Z RUNS ON SATURDAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS WOULD EQUATE TO 10 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH A
LOW CHANCE OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WHICH SOME SREF MEMBERS STILL SHOW.
A STRONGER PARENT LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
GREATER RIDGING TREND LATE WEEK WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING. THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY.
HEIGHTS WILL SLIGHTLY LOWER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY FOLLOWING BEHIND IT AND A RESUME OF RISING
HEIGHTS BUT AT A SLOW RATE. THIS HIGH WILL BE QUITE TRANSIENT AND
WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATER NEXT
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THIS IS ONLY
SHOWN BY THE ECMWF WITH GFS DISPLAYING A VASTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO
WITH WEAKER LOW PRESSURE AND MORE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIP EVENTS WEDNESDAY AND LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THE MILDER AIRMASS DEVELOPING IN THE REGION. AMOUNTS GENERALLY
ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. DETAILS ON THIS ARE UNCERTAIN WITH
MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER...FROM 23-00Z THROUGH
03-04Z...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED.
CEILINGS/VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW IS A POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...SKIES CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 270-290 TRUE AROUND 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH 00Z.
A GUST OR TWO TO 20 KT IS POSSIBLE. THEN GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT
THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...RIGHT AROUND 300-320 TRUE. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN
MORE TOWARD THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...320-340 TRUE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE IN
LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH.
.TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW IN THE
MORNING...WITH A RETURN TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG.
.WED AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS WED AFTERNOON.
.FRI...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE FALLEN JUST BLW SCA LVLS ON THE WATERS...BUT THESE
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT AFT THE PASSAGE OF A QUICK
MOVING DISTURBANCE. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR ALL WATERS
THRU 6AM. THE WINDS SHOULD LINGER A BIT LONGER OFF MONTAUK...SO
THE ADVY GOES TIL 11AM THERE. HIPRES KEEPS CONDITIONS BLW SCA LVLS
MON AFTN THRU MON NGT.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND TRACKING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS...LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN STAY UP THROUGH THE DAY AND
NIGHT...STILL IN THE SCA RANGE. SUB SCA CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER...SCA POTENTIAL RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 0.2 TO 0.4 INCH LIQUID WITH SYSTEM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP EXPECTED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.
DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JM
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
400 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL USHER IN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE REGION
TUESDAY...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY. A
BRIEF RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER BRIEF RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY APPROACHING
FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR PLACED APPROACHING SHRTWV ENERGY ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND
PA THIS AFTN. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES THAT THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LIFT IS HOLDING TOGETHER....WITH SFC OBS INDICATING LIGHT
SNOWFALL RATES WITH VSBY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES. AS A RESULT HAVE
GONE CLOSE TO THE RUC AND FCST ISOLD-SCT SHSN THIS EVE. WHERE ANY
HEAVIER SHSN OCCUR...A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE. HRRR/NAM/RUN SUGGEST
THIS SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE LWR HUDSON VALLEY INTO CT AND LI.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NW WINDS MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY AFTER THE SHRTWV...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COASTS...BUT ACROSS MOST AREAS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN BEFORE
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SNOWCOVER. SKIES WILL CLEAR PER STLT
OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV
AND MET WITH A MANUAL DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.
BRIGHT AND SUNNY ON MON WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING CLR
SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE W BY
SUNSET. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE USED FOR TEMPS.
PACIFIC SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THEN APPROACHES MON
NGT. THE TREND WITH THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS WILL BE HIGHER AFTER THE SYSTEM EJECTS
ONTO THE PLAINS. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN SLIGHTLY...BUT SNOW
SHOULD REACH AREAS ALONG AND W OF THE HUDSON BY SUNRISE...WITH UP
TO AN INCH POSSIBLE BY 8AM TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SINUSOIDAL PATTERN ALOFT WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE REMAINS EVIDENT
AMONGST THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE MODELS OVERALL
CONTINUE TO CONVEY AN INCREASING AMPLITUDE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH A DEVELOPING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN U.S.
AND DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL U.S. A GRADUAL MODERATION OF
THE AIRMASS WILL THUS TAKE PLACE WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE PREVALENT MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.
IN THE LOCAL REGION...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL JET
LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL ENHANCE LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH AXIS
AND LEFT QUAD OF THE JET PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THE SURFACE...THE PARENT LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING RIGHT NEAR THE REGION. THE TRENDS HAVE
OSCILLATED NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH REGARDS TO
POSITION OF THE LOW NEAR THE REGION. HOWEVER...A TREND WITH COLDER
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND THEREBY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS
NOTED AND THIS WILL THEREFORE PROVIDE A GREATER MAGNITUDE OF
STEERING FLOW...ESSENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR THIS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN NATURE WITH A SMALL TIME SCALE EVENT. MODELS AGREE WITH A GENERAL
0.2 TO 0.3 INCH...TRENDED DOWN FROM 12Z RUNS ON SATURDAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS WOULD EQUATE TO 10 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH A
LOW CHANCE OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WHICH SOME SREF MEMBERS STILL SHOW.
A STRONGER PARENT LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANAD TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A GREATER RIDGING
TREND LATE WEEK WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY.
HEIGHTS WILL SLIGHTLY LOWER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY FOLLOWING BEHIND IT AND A RESUME OF RISING
HEIGHTS BUT AT A SLOW RATE. THIS HIGH WILL BE QUITE TRANSIENT AND
WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATER NEXT
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THIS IS ONLY
SHOWN BY THE ECMWF WITH GFS DISPLAYING A VASTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO
WITH WEAKER LOW PRESSURE AND MORE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIP EVENTS WEDNESDAY AND LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THE MILDER AIRMASS DEVELOPING IN THE REGION. AMOUNTS GENERALLY
ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. DETAILS ON THIS ARE UNCERTAIN WITH
MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER...FROM 23-00Z THROUGH
03-04Z...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED.
CEILINGS/VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW IS A POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...SKIES CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 270-290 TRUE AROUND 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH 00Z.
A GUST OR TWO TO 20 KT IS POSSIBLE. THEN GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT
THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...RIGHT AROUND 300-320 TRUE. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN
MORE TOWARD THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...320-340 TRUE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE IN
LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH.
.TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW IN THE
MORNING...WITH A RETURN TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG.
.WED AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS WED AFTERNOON.
.FRI...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE FALLEN JUST BLW SCA LVLS ON THE WATERS...BUT THESE
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT AFT THE PASSAGE OF A QUICK
MOVING DISTURBANCE. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR ALL WATERS
THRU 6AM. THE WINDS SHOULD LINGER A BIT LONGER OFF MONTAUK...SO
THE ADVY GOES TIL 11AM THERE. HIPRES KEEPS CONDITIONS BLW SCA LVLS
MON AFTN THRU MON NGT.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND TRACKING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY RIGHT
BEHIND IT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY RETURN BY WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO SCA GUSTS
LATE IN THE WEEK. SCA SEAS ARE FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THESE ARE FROM WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. THERE
IS A CHANCE SEAS MAY BE 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN FORECAST ON THE OCEAN FOR
TUESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOW TRENDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 0.2 TO 0.4 INCH LIQUID WITH SYSTEM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP EXPECTED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.
DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JM
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1116 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY FOR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY EVENING BUT COOL AND
DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION. A
MILDER AND UNSETTLED PERIOD IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1115 PM UPDATE...
VERY HEAVY SNOW BAND OVER CAPE COD WITH REPORTS OF THUNDER SNOW
IN THIS BAND. GIVEN INTENSITY OF THE REFLECTIVITY SEEN ON RADAR
PROBABLY LOOKING AT 2-3"/HOUR RATES. HRRR MOVES THIS BAND
OFFSHORE BY 06Z SO EXPECT THE HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST
OF THE CAPE DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH SNOW RATES DIMINISHING.
ELSEWHERE...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WEST OF I95 AND SNOWFALL RATES
HAVE DIMINISHED TO THE EAST. STILL MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
SNOW FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO CAPE ANN BUT SNOWFALL WILL BE
DIMINISHING NEXT FEW HOURS.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW PEAK OF THE WIND WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH G50 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER CAPE/ACK AND 40 KT
ACROSS REST OF E COASTAL MA. DANGEROUS SITUATION ON CAPE COD WITH
COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HEAVY SNOW BAND TAKING SHAPE ACROSS FAR SE MA...PRIMARILY ACROSS
PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO THE UPPER CAPE. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AT 700
MB SHOWS THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AND PACKING OF ISOTHERMS ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS FAR SE MA. NAM MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND SNOW GROWTH OMEGA IS HANDLING THIS BAND VERY
WELL AND KEEP THIS BANDING SIGNAL IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY BEFORE
IT MOVES EAST 03-06Z. MAX SNOWFALL 12-18" WILL BE ACROSS PLYMOUTH
COUNTY TO THE UPPER CAPE...WITH GENERALLY 8-12" ACROSS REST OF SE
MA.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS UPDATE IS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
HEAVY SNOWFALL. NAM SHOWING A FAIRLY SHARP CUT OFF TO THE MID
LEVEL FGEN AND SNOW GROWTH OMEGA ALONG AND WEST OF THE I95
CORRIDOR SO EXPECT AMOUNTS TO DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY WEST OF
I95. AS THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW MOVES NE FROM THE BENCHMARK WE
DO EXPECT SOME HEAVIER SNOW OVER THE OCEAN TO PIVOT BACK INTO NE
MA INCLUDING BOS AND THE NORTH SHORE AS BANDING BECOMES MORE N-S
ORIENTED. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT HRRR MODEL DEPICTION OF
HEAVIER SNOW BACKING INTO NE MA.
WE TIGHTENED THE SNOWFALL GRADIENT ALONG I-95 DECREASING AMOUNTS
ALONG AND TO THE WEST WITH UP TO 8 INCHES I-95 AND 6 INCHES JUST
TO THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
STRONG COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BOMB OUT INTO THE MARITIMES ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING BEFORE DECREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE BELOW -8C SO TEMPS WILL BE
STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS WELL AS IN
THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MORE OF A DUSTING WITH WORST CAST SCENARIO
BEING AN INCH OR TWO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT BY 09Z
AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AFTERWARDS. HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN UP
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT. YET WITH THE
STRONG CAA...AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -14 TO -16C EXPECT TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. CERTAIN REGIONS
FLIRT WITH WIND CHILL ADV...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY
* POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW ON TUESDAY
* WED THROUGH SAT...SEVERAL WEAK WAVES THROUGH A ZONAL
FLOW...WARMER PATTERN.
MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
OVERALL HAVE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MEDIUM
AND LONG TERM. ALTHOUGH THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON A WARMER
TREND BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWERS HIGH
PRESSURE ON MONDAY BEFORE DIVERGING IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
TUESDAY. AFTERWARDS THE FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND ALLOWING ANY SORT OF
WAVE TO RIDE THROUGH ALLOWING FOR A WETTER YET WARMER PATTERN.
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS PREV AND HPC YET WITH THE TUESDAY
SYSTEM BLENDED MORE OF THE EC INTO THE FORECAST. THE LATEST 12Z RUN
OF THE EC DEVELOPS MORE OF A COASTAL LOW FOR THE REGION IN
ALIGNMENT WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN. ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE FAN OF THE
CANADIAN...NOTICED THAT SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ARE ALSO SHOWING
A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING FOR A
POTENTIAL SYSTEM.
DETAILS...
MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AT 850MB WILL YIELD TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NICE LITTLE BREAK IN THE BUSY
WEATHER WEEK. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE STRONG CAA...TEMPS WILL STILL
BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING.
MODELS INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES SO SOME DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL AS SOME GUSTY WINDS.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
TRENDED THIS FORECAST TO THE EC AND GEM. MODELS BRING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE BENCHMARK TRYING TO MAKE THE FLOW MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN SEEN BY SEVERAL PREVIOUS
STORMS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. BUT FOR
NOW...THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE COLUMN AS WELL
AS THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DESCENT AMOUNT OF
LIFT AS WELL. BELIEVE THAT SNOW WILL OVER SPREAD THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY BEFORE DEPARTING THE AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL THE QUESTION OF
TIMING...APPEARS THAT THE MORNING COMMUTE OUT WEST AND THE EVENING
COMMUTE OUT EAST WILL BE IMPACTED. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY AND THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT ITS TRACK...RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLE ADVISORY SNOW OUT FOR THE INTERIOR. STAY
TUNED FOR MORE UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
A FEW WEAK WAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION WITH A POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH TIMING OF PRECIP IS STILL IN QUESTION IS APPEARS THAT A
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.
850MB TEMPS JUMP TO 4C ON WED ALLOWING TEMPS INTO THE 40S. QUICK
SHORTWAVE ON WED PM MAP ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPS ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE DROP. HOWEVER ON THURSDAY...850MB TEMPS WARM UP
TO ABOUT 0C. SURFACE TEMPS WILL STILL REACH INTO THE 40S AS
FORECASTER ANTICIPATES DIURNAL HEATING DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN THE COLUMN. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS WARMING TREND WITH THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND. IT COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
ON FRIDAY WILL WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 40S BUT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE AT THE
ONSET RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX AS YOU GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH ONCE MODELS ARE IN MORE OF AN
AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH LATE EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 60 KNOTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.
CIGS/VSBYS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM 4Z TO 8Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
HOWEVER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COAST.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOD/HEAVY SNOW AND LIFR
CONDITIONS THOUGH MIDNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVE THEREAFTER BUT
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE SNOW THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING. VSBYS IMPROVE AFTER 4Z BUT WINDS REMAIN GUSTY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT GUSTING WINDS TO 25 KTS IN THE MORNING
DECREASING INTO THE EVENING TO 15 KTS. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TO VFR.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...THEN CONDITIONS LOWER
TO MVFR-IFR ACROSS THE REGION IN CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW. PRECIP MAY
MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN TUE AFTERNOON ALONG THE S COAST BEFORE
ENDING TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MOVING W-E DURING
WED NIGHT. MAY SEE MIXED PRECIP CHANGING TO RAIN. VFR ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE UNDER GOING BOMBOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN POWERFUL NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE
EVENING WEARS ON. WINDS GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 45 KNOTS IN OUR
WESTERN SOUNDS...TO 60 KNOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
GALE AND STORM WARNINGS ARE POSTED. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD HIGHER
THAN WNA GUIDANCE AS WE SHOULD SEE THEM EXCEED 20 FEET FOR A TIME
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS IS A DANGEROUS
AND LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS...WHO SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
RETURNED TO PORT.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT NW WIND GUSTS TO 30-40 KT AND SEAS ABOVE 12FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS EARLY SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY BUT
REMAINING AT GALE FORCE THROUGH SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
WATERS. EXPECT GUSTS TO DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY SUN
EVENING WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAINING ABOVE 5 FT.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS GUSTING TO GALES ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE LATE TUESDAY DUE TO ANOTHER APPROACHING COASTAL LOW. HAVE
INCREASED WAVES AS GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING THIS UP. .
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCA WILL
STILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT
IN A STORM SURGE OF 3-4 FT IN PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY WITH SEAS 10-
12 FT TONIGHT. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE HIGH TIDE AROUND MIDNIGHT
RESULTING IN AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE COAST OF CAPE
COD FACING CAPE COD BAY. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
NANTUCKET HARBOR AND PROVINCETOWN HARBOR. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS.
ALSO...DECIDED TO INCLUDE CAPE ANN IN THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
GIVEN THE FACT THEY ARE A BIT EXPOSED MAY SEE SOME VERY MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THEIR MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ005-006-
012>017-020.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ007-018-019-
021>024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ007-022-
024.
NH...NONE.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-
254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1003 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY TAKE HOLD TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION
FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS STILL ON TAP FOR THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WEILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN ON REGIONAL RADARS
MOVING THROUGH THE UPSTATE OF SC AND THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL GA.
PRECIP IS FAST MOVING AND LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY. MOISTURE
WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOW
LEVELS. SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH GENERALLY NO POPS
ELSEWHERE AS DOWNSLOPING FURTHER DIMINISHES REMAINING MOISTURE.
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.
TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
AROUND SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA AS THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF COAST. WENT WITH MOS
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT ALSO OFFSHORE. ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH A COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE AROUND 1 INCH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE WARM
FRONT ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA EARLY FRIDAY WITH
A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS SHOW AMPLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH GFS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.4 INCHES AT 12Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME WITH RAIN LIKELY. THE SPC HAS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS IN ITS DAY 5 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. STRONG FLOW
ALOFT MAY RESULT IN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND EXPANDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL ALONG
THE COAST ON SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND IT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RETURNING TO OVER AN INCH.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR RETURNING TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING ALLOWING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASING AND LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THE
RUC AND HRRR MODELS INDICATING IFR CONDITION DEVELOPING AROUND
04Z. CONFIDENCE STILL LOW AND LAMP/NAM GUIDANCE STILL KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR...SO WILL KEEP VFR OVERNIGHT. BY 18/13Z THE FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...SO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. OTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT...WILL BE STRONG 30 TO 35
KT LOW LEVEL JET AND MAY NEED THE MENTION OF WIND SHEAR. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SURFACE WINDS AND WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
648 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY TAKE HOLD TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION
FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS STILL ON TAP FOR THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOW
LEVELS. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH NO POPS ELSEWHERE AS DOWNSLOPING
FURTHER DIMINISHES REMAINING MOISTURE. INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
AROUND SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA AS THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF COAST. WENT WITH MOS
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT ALSO OFFSHORE. ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH A COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE AROUND 1 INCH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE WARM
FRONT ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA EARLY FRIDAY WITH
A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS SHOW AMPLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH GFS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.4 INCHES AT 12Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME WITH RAIN LIKELY. THE SPC HAS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS IN ITS DAY 5 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. STRONG FLOW
ALOFT MAY RESULT IN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND EXPANDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL ALONG
THE COAST ON SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND IT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RETURNING TO OVER AN INCH.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR RETURNING TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING ALLOWING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASING AND LOWERING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BOTH THE RUC AND HRRR MODELS INDICATING IFR CONDITION
DEVELOPING AROUND 04Z. CONFIDENCE STILL LOW AND LAMP/NAM GUIDANCE
STILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR...SO WILL KEEP VFR OVERNIGHT. BY 18/13Z
THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...SO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
VFR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. OTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT...WILL BE STRONG
30 TO 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND MAY NEED THE MENTION OF WIND SHEAR.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SURFACE WINDS AND WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
858 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
248 PM CST
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...
WILL LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING AS IS...WITH THE WESTERN
COUNTIES ENDING AT 6PM AND THE EASTERN COUNTIES ENDING AT 9PM CST.
TWO LOWS ARE OVER THE REGION. THE DEEPER ONE IS OVER SOUTHWEST MN
WHILE THE OTHER IS OVER SOUTHERN IL. BOTH LOWS HAVE DEEPENED IN
THE PAST HOUR. ALOFT...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM MN
THROUGH MO WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING THE
LIFT FOR THE SNOW. THE RAP HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD IDEA OF THE FGEN
FORCING AND CAPE TODAY. THE FGEN IS FOCUSED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
AND HAVE IT PASSING FROM MCLEAN COUNTY INTO CENTRAL INDIANA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CAPE REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FGEN
BAND. AS SUCH THINKING THUNDERSNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF I-80 AND NORTHWEST INDIANA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO INDIANA BY 3PM. BUT THINKING THUNDERSNOW IS NOT
AS LIKELY AS IT WAS EARLIER TODAY...AND WE ARE ON A DOWNWARD TREND.
AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 AND NW INDIANA...HAVE ALSO BEEN HARDEST HIT BY
SNOW THUS FAR WITH REPORTS AS HIGH AS 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR. THE AREA
OF SNOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THOSE INTENSE RATES HAS MOVED EAST. HOWEVER
ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW COINCIDING WITH THE FGEN BAND STRETCHES FROM
MCHENRY COUNTY THROUGH CHAMPAIGN COUNTY. IT JUST MOVED OVER THE
OFFICE HERE AND VSBY DROPPED TO LESS THAN 1/8 OF A MILE WITH HEAVY
SNOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP HEAVY SNOW IN THE FORECAST AS THIS BAND
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. HAVE THE BAND PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY 5PM
CST.
THE BACK END OF THE SNOW STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MN TO PEORIA TO
DECATUR IL AND IS QUICKLY PUSHING EAST AS WELL. AS SUCH QUICKENED
THE END TIME OF SNOW IN THE GRIDS. LEFT TOTALS AS IS WITH GENERALLY
4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECTING SLIGHTLY LOWER TOTALS ALONG
THE IL/WI STATE LINE AND THEN HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA. WITH THIS BEING A WETTER TYPE SNOW...LEFT BLOWING SNOW OUT OF
THE FORECAST. WIND GUSTS PICK UP SOUTH OF I-80 BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED...AND THEY
DIMINISH BY MORNING.
FOR TEMPS...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS RIGHT ON SO DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO TODAYS TEMPS. FOR TONIGHT...WENT A BIT LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW AND CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20.
JEE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO PUSH THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH SFC RIDGING BUILDING INTO
NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. THE COMBINATION OF RIDGING...P-CLOUDY
SKIES...ALONG WITH MID-LVL TEMPS BEGINNING TO WARM...SHOULD ALLOW
SFC TEMPS TO WARM MID/UPR 30S TUE AFTN. A FEW POINTS ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA COULD TOUCH 40 DEGREES.
THEN WITH THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING FOR A RELATIVELY FLUID
ENVIRONMENT...A WEAK TROUGH PIVOTS EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUE
AFTN/EVE...AND BRINGS THICKENING CLOUD COVER BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA. LOCAL MODEL WAS INDICATING SOME SPRINKLES WITH THE WEAK WAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE EVE...HOWEVER
FEEL TOO MUCH DRY AIR WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUE NGT INTO WED AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE CWFA. SFC RIDGING WILL DEPART
EAST...HOWEVER BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY INFLUENCE FOR THE AREA INTO WED. THIS FEATURE
WILL THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS ONLY COOL MARGINALLY TUE NGT ALOFT...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
COOLING AT THE SFC...THUS HAVE HELD ONTO TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 20S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEN FOR WED WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY AND P-CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO WARM BACK ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE
LOW/MID 30S.
WEAK MID-LVL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD WED AFTN/EVE...WITH SFC RIDGING
KEEPING A SLIGHT INFLUENCE OVER THE CWFA THRU EARLY EVE. THIS SHUD
KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WED NGT/EARLY THUR.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP THAT CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED BY NUMEROUS
FORECAST MODELS. WHILE SOME CORRECTIONS CONTINUE TO TAKE
PLACE...WITH RESPECT TO THE PLACEMENT/INTENSITY OF THE DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR. 500MB TROUGH REMAINS MORE OF AN ELONGATED
SETUP...WITH THE VORT MAX OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DESPITE THE
TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS OF COLORADO EARLY
THUR. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ON
THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES NEAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THUR. WITH
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY STREAM NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
ENSEMBLES HAVE MAINTAINED A DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PWAT VALUES
NEARING 1" FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 IN NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN THUR...WITH STRONG MFLUX CONVERGENCE AT 850MB. THIS
COUPLED WITH A VERY ROBUST LLVL JET...AND STRONG INSTABILITY...POINT
TOWARDS NOT ONLY THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAIN GIVEN THE SURGE IN
WARM AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC HAS A PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...OUTLOOKED FOR POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THIS REMAINS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER LINE FOR THE MAIN
FOCUS AREA...HOWEVER GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING/INTENSITY/PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THIS WILL LIKELY BE
ADJUSTED OVER TIME.
SHORTWAVE THEN SLIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THUR EVE...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING AN END TO THE MILD AIRMASS AND RETURNING
P-TYPE BACK TO LGT SNOW BEFORE ENDING FRI MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTER TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID/UPR 40S THUR...FRI HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDS IN THE LOW/MID 30S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK PATTERN IS PROGGED TO
RETURN TO WHAT HAS BEEN A COMMON PATTERN OF TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING PUSHING INTO WESTERN
CANADA. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS.
THEN GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A COUPLE WEAK MID-LVL WAVES TRAVERSING
THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ENHANCED CONCERN
REGARDING FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE DETAIL METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION IS ABOVE.
NO CHANGES REALLY TO THE PREVIOUS HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION OTHER
THAN SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE AFTER TODAY`S SNOW SYSTEM. WILL FRESHEN UP THE ESF
AGAIN THIS MORNING BUT NOT PLANNING ANY BIG CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* VARIABLE MVFR CIGS LIKELY LOWERING TO 010-015 NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...EXITING OVERNIGHT.
* WEST WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THROUGH LATE
EVENING...TURNING SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY THEN TURNING SOUTHWEST.
GUSTS 20-25 KT DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
LOW PRESSURE NOW SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS WHICH IS
ALLOWING WEST WINDS TO INCREASE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AT TIMES.
THESE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY THROUGH LATE EVENING BUT
WILL EASE UP AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST. CIGS ARE MAINLY VARIABLE MVFR...WITH SOME PATCHY IFR AS
WELL. BACK EDGE OF CIGS IS SLOWLY WORKING EAST BUT DO EXPECT THEY
WILL DEPART OVERNIGHT...BUT DID SLOW THE DEPARTURE OVER EARLIER
TAFS. VSBY WILL RANGE FROM 4-8SM IN MIST AND SOME BLOWING SNOW.
FROM 00Z...
LAST OF THE SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CHICAGO
AREA AT THE CURRENT TIME WITH JUST SOME NARROW BANDS OF MUCH
LIGHTER SNOW LINGERING. WITH IFR ENDING AS SNOW ENDS...MVFR VSBY
WILL TAKE OVER AND LINGER INTO MID EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS NOT CERTAIN BUT A SHIFT TO WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY AID
THE IMPROVEMENT. CURRENT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN
WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MVFR CIGS
EXTEND BACK INTO FAR NORTHEAST IOWA WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW
LEVEL CLEARING LATER TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LATER TONIGHT BRINGING WINDS
BACK TO SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH FIRST THING IN THE MORNING. SPEEDS
WILL THEN INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH WITH THE
DIRECTION TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING
ONWARD. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VARIABLE MVFR CIGS...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN LOWERING TO 010-015...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SCATTERING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR FZRA DEVELOPING.
THURSDAY..RAIN/FOG/IFR LIKELY. CHANCE THUNDER. FZRA POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING.
FRIDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
300 PM CST
HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THIS EVENING AS A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN...BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH THE NERN CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE
TONIGHT AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE FRONT...SETTING
UP A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY VARIABLE...BUT WEAKER WINDS OVER THE
LAKE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
SRN CANADA...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE
FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE LAKES...SLY-SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO ARND 30KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAKER LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND A STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTH HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL BE THE MAIN SYSTEM OF
CONCERN AS IT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH
ERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LAKE. SWLY WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED GALE FORCE WHILE SHIFTING
TO WLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ033 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL
9 PM MONDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
559 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
248 PM CST
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...
WILL LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING AS IS...WITH THE WESTERN
COUNTIES ENDING AT 6PM AND THE EASTERN COUNTIES ENDING AT 9PM CST.
TWO LOWS ARE OVER THE REGION. THE DEEPER ONE IS OVER SOUTHWEST MN
WHILE THE OTHER IS OVER SOUTHERN IL. BOTH LOWS HAVE DEEPENED IN
THE PAST HOUR. ALOFT...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM MN
THROUGH MO WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING THE
LIFT FOR THE SNOW. THE RAP HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD IDEA OF THE FGEN
FORCING AND CAPE TODAY. THE FGEN IS FOCUSED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
AND HAVE IT PASSING FROM MCLEAN COUNTY INTO CENTRAL INDIANA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CAPE REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FGEN
BAND. AS SUCH THINKING THUNDERSNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF I-80 AND NORTHWEST INDIANA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO INDIANA BY 3PM. BUT THINKING THUNDERSNOW IS NOT
AS LIKELY AS IT WAS EARLIER TODAY...AND WE ARE ON A DOWNWARD TREND.
AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 AND NW INDIANA...HAVE ALSO BEEN HARDEST HIT BY
SNOW THUS FAR WITH REPORTS AS HIGH AS 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR. THE AREA
OF SNOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THOSE INTENSE RATES HAS MOVED EAST. HOWEVER
ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW COINCIDING WITH THE FGEN BAND STRETCHES FROM
MCHENRY COUNTY THROUGH CHAMPAIGN COUNTY. IT JUST MOVED OVER THE
OFFICE HERE AND VSBY DROPPED TO LESS THAN 1/8 OF A MILE WITH HEAVY
SNOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP HEAVY SNOW IN THE FORECAST AS THIS BAND
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. HAVE THE BAND PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY 5PM
CST.
THE BACK END OF THE SNOW STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MN TO PEORIA TO
DECATUR IL AND IS QUICKLY PUSHING EAST AS WELL. AS SUCH QUICKENED
THE END TIME OF SNOW IN THE GRIDS. LEFT TOTALS AS IS WITH GENERALLY
4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECTING SLIGHTLY LOWER TOTALS ALONG
THE IL/WI STATE LINE AND THEN HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA. WITH THIS BEING A WETTER TYPE SNOW...LEFT BLOWING SNOW OUT OF
THE FORECAST. WIND GUSTS PICK UP SOUTH OF I-80 BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED...AND THEY
DIMINISH BY MORNING.
FOR TEMPS...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS RIGHT ON SO DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO TODAYS TEMPS. FOR TONIGHT...WENT A BIT LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW AND CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20.
JEE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO PUSH THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH SFC RIDGING BUILDING INTO
NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. THE COMBINATION OF RIDGING...P-CLOUDY
SKIES...ALONG WITH MID-LVL TEMPS BEGINNING TO WARM...SHOULD ALLOW
SFC TEMPS TO WARM MID/UPR 30S TUE AFTN. A FEW POINTS ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA COULD TOUCH 40 DEGREES.
THEN WITH THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING FOR A RELATIVELY FLUID
ENVIRONMENT...A WEAK TROUGH PIVOTS EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUE
AFTN/EVE...AND BRINGS THICKENING CLOUD COVER BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA. LOCAL MODEL WAS INDICATING SOME SPRINKLES WITH THE WEAK WAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE EVE...HOWEVER
FEEL TOO MUCH DRY AIR WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUE NGT INTO WED AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE CWFA. SFC RIDGING WILL DEPART
EAST...HOWEVER BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY INFLUENCE FOR THE AREA INTO WED. THIS FEATURE
WILL THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS ONLY COOL MARGINALLY TUE NGT ALOFT...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
COOLING AT THE SFC...THUS HAVE HELD ONTO TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 20S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEN FOR WED WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY AND P-CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO WARM BACK ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE
LOW/MID 30S.
WEAK MID-LVL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD WED AFTN/EVE...WITH SFC RIDGING
KEEPING A SLIGHT INFLUENCE OVER THE CWFA THRU EARLY EVE. THIS SHUD
KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WED NGT/EARLY THUR.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP THAT CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED BY NUMEROUS
FORECAST MODELS. WHILE SOME CORRECTIONS CONTINUE TO TAKE
PLACE...WITH RESPECT TO THE PLACEMENT/INTENSITY OF THE DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR. 500MB TROUGH REMAINS MORE OF AN ELONGATED
SETUP...WITH THE VORT MAX OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DESPITE THE
TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS OF COLORADO EARLY
THUR. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ON
THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES NEAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THUR. WITH
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY STREAM NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
ENSEMBLES HAVE MAINTAINED A DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PWAT VALUES
NEARING 1" FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 IN NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN THUR...WITH STRONG MFLUX CONVERGENCE AT 850MB. THIS
COUPLED WITH A VERY ROBUST LLVL JET...AND STRONG INSTABILITY...POINT
TOWARDS NOT ONLY THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAIN GIVEN THE SURGE IN
WARM AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC HAS A PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...OUTLOOKED FOR POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THIS REMAINS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER LINE FOR THE MAIN
FOCUS AREA...HOWEVER GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING/INTENSITY/PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THIS WILL LIKELY BE
ADJUSTED OVER TIME.
SHORTWAVE THEN SLIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THUR EVE...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING AN END TO THE MILD AIRMASS AND RETURNING
P-TYPE BACK TO LGT SNOW BEFORE ENDING FRI MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTER TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID/UPR 40S THUR...FRI HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDS IN THE LOW/MID 30S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK PATTERN IS PROGGED TO
RETURN TO WHAT HAS BEEN A COMMON PATTERN OF TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING PUSHING INTO WESTERN
CANADA. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS.
THEN GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A COUPLE WEAK MID-LVL WAVES TRAVERSING
THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ENHANCED CONCERN
REGARDING FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE DETAIL METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION IS ABOVE.
NO CHANGES REALLY TO THE PREVIOUS HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION OTHER
THAN SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE AFTER TODAY`S SNOW SYSTEM. WILL FRESHEN UP THE ESF
AGAIN THIS MORNING BUT NOT PLANNING ANY BIG CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* LIGHT SNOW ENDING NEXT 1-2 HRS...WITH IFR ENDING TOWARD 01Z BUT
MVFR VSBY IN MIST LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING.
* LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST THEN WEST NEXT 1-2 HRS.
* MVFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING.
* VFR TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS 210-230 DEGREES
MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LAST OF THE SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CHICAGO
AREA AT THE CURRENT TIME WITH JUST SOME NARROW BANDS OF MUCH
LIGHTER SNOW LINGERING. WITH IFR ENDING AS SNOW ENDS...MVFR VSBY
WILL TAKE OVER AND LINGER INTO MID EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS NOT CERTAIN BUT A SHIFT TO WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY AID
THE IMPROVEMENT. CURRENT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN
WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MVFR CIGS
EXTEND BACK INTO FAR NORTHEAST IOWA WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW
LEVEL CLEARING LATER TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LATER TONIGHT BRINGING WINDS
BACK TO SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH FIRST THING IN THE MORNING. SPEEDS
WILL THEN INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH WITH THE
DIRECTION TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT GUSTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING
ONWARD. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ENDING NEXT 1-2 HRS...MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN IFR ENDING TOWARD 01Z AND MVFR VSBY LINGERING
THROUGH THE EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS TUESDAY.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR FZRA DEVELOPING.
THURSDAY..RAIN/FOG/IFR LIKELY. CHANCE THUNDER. FZRA POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING.
FRIDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
300 PM CST
HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THIS EVENING AS A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN...BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH THE NERN CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE
TONIGHT AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE FRONT...SETTING
UP A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY VARIABLE...BUT WEAKER WINDS OVER THE
LAKE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
SRN CANADA...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE
FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE LAKES...SLY-SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO ARND 30KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAKER LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND A STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTH HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL BE THE MAIN SYSTEM OF
CONCERN AS IT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH
ERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LAKE. SWLY WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED GALE FORCE WHILE SHIFTING
TO WLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ006-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ033
UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ020-ILZ021
UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL
9 PM MONDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
959 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA... HEAVY AT TIMES
THIS EVENING. SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MIX WITH THE SNOW
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 IN INDIANA AND OHIO. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...HEAVIEST ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN. BRISK WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
OVERNIGHT CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 20... WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW CONTG TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS EVE.
THIS SHOULD END ACROSS OUR AREA FROM WEST-EAST OVERNIGHT AS
DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW MOVES ENE INTO THE LWR GRTLKS. WSW WINDS
PICKING UP ACROSS SW PORTION OF CWA IN WAKE OF SFC LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NE PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT... THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
SNOWFALL RATES 2-3.5 INCHES/HR IN XTRMLY HVY TSSN ENTERING WRN CWA.
CONTD VERY SIMILAR RAP/NAM/PREV BLENDED APPROACH UTILIZED WITH
MIDDAY UPDATE. GENERAL CONTD CONSENSUS OF SREF MEAN AND TIGHT PLUME
PACK IN ADDITION TO 12 UTC NAM COBB OUTPUT SUPPORTS LATEST EVENT
TOTALS IN PRIOR 1233 PM EST WSW UPDATE WITH HIEST GENRLY ALONG NORTH
OF TOLL ROAD. THANKFULLY XTRM RATES BRIEF AND WITH TRANSITION TO
LESS THAN OPTIMAL FLAKE SIZE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD
KEEP MAJORITY OF ACCUMS TO LTE 6 INCHES. SOME CONCERN THOUGH FOR HIR
AMOUNTS WITH TROWAL LIFTING ACRS FAR NRN CWA THIS EVENING PRIOR TO
LIFTG FARTHER N OF CWA BYND 03 UTC...INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT IT WILL
LIE OUT E-W JUST NORTH OF CWA...BEFORE GRDL EWD LIFTOUT. LEADING
WARM CONVEYOR BELT INTENSE WITH XTRM MSTR TAP WITH 6-7 G/KG ON I295K
SFC SLIDES EWD THROUGH SRN IN THIS EVENING...PROVIDING XTRM
MFLUX/UVM ATOP NOSE OF RAMPING SWRLY 850-7H JET AXIS. JETLET OF 65
KTS AT 21 UTC POSITIONED ACRS SRN IN...STRENGTHENS TO 75 KTS MEAN
LYR FLOW INTO SRN OH BY 00 UTC. SPECIAL KILX MIDDAY SNDG YIELDS 320
J/KG MUCAPE/LIFTED FM 7H AND WHILE LATEST RAP TREND NOTED DOWNWARD
WRT MUCAPE WL CONT WITH PRIOR AREA ADDED AND HAVE NOW INCLUDED FAR
ERN AREAS AS WELL IN 22-02 UTC TIMEFRAME GIVEN APPROACH OF STOUT 6-7
C/KM MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATE PLUME AND SYSTEM DEEPENING. MID LVL
CIRC AND TO CLOSE OFF ACRS CHICAGOLAND SHORTLY AND TRACK EWD TO
WINDSOR ONT BY 09 UTC TUE...ALSO SUGGESTING HIEST AMOUNTS HERE/JUST
NORTH OF CWA...WHERE HIGHLY ELEVATED MAX UVM BEST COLLOCATED WITHIN
A SATURATED DGZ. RAPID CRASH OF CLOUD DEPTH IN WAKE OF SYSTEM IN
PERTURBED MOIST BLYR STILL SUGGESTIVE OF BRIEF LIGHT FZDZSN POTNL AT
BEFORE ENDING. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER INTO TUE AWAITING
SHORTWAVE 925MB RIDGING THAT STILL HOLDS JUST WEST FM KGRB INTO NERN
IL AT 12 UTC TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
FOCUS CONTINUES ON WARMER TEMPERATURES/ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH FRIDAY AND FLOODING/SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION LATE TUES NGT INTO
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BE STARVED OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEADING TO A
GENERALLY QUIET PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND COMPARED TO THE AIR OF THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS WILL FEEL DOWNRIGHT NICE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE
START OF THE MELTDOWN OF THE LARGE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S...KEEPING ANY FOG FORMATION AWAY
AND ALLOWING FOR A SLOW RELEASE AND NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES.
PIECE OF ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW WILL DROP
INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND CARVE OUT A DEEPENING TROUGH WHICH WILL
ALLOW A SURGE OF EVEN WARMER AIR STARTING LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURS
GULF OF MEXICO OPENING WIDE TO SEND ABUNDANT MSTR TO THE REGION.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PRECIP ARRIVING LATE WEDS NGT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SHOW ABOVE FREEZING
VALUES...HOWEVER REMAINING SNOWPACK MAY POSE A INITIAL CHALLENGE AND
THREAT OF BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT ONSET OF RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...BY MID THURSDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AND
ANY ICING THREAT OVER. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. IN
ADDITION...LAST FEW FRAMES OF NAM12 AND HINTS ON ECMWF/GFS INDICATE
NEGATIVE SHOWWALTER VALUES BEGIN TO NUDGE IN BY LATE MORNING IN
WESTERN AREAS AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURS AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MSTR RETURN AS SFC DEWPTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
50S IN SE HALF. WHILE SOME MODELS HINT THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN
PRECIP...HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH CAT POPS...INTRODUCED THUNDER
WEST LATE AM AND INCREASED TO CHC THUNDER ALL AREAS THURS AFTN.
CONTINUED MENTION OF FOG WHICH WILL LIKELY BE DENSE AS DWPTS CLIMB
ABOVE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOK TO BE THROUGH THURS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE AFTN INTO EVENING AS
COLD FRONT ARRIVES. IN TERMS OF FLOODING THREAT...GREATEST RELEASE
WILL OCCUR INTO THURS EVE AND ONLY SLOW DOWN SOMEWHAT THURS NGT WITH
TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY. IF ADVERTISED
DEWPOINTS DO ARRIVE...LIKELY WON`T BE MUCH OF A SNOWPACK LEFT WITH
FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOW
40S WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MELTING. HWO AND ESF HAVE THIS HANDLED
WELL THUS FAR SO NO CHANGES PLANNED. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS
FURTHER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MSTR...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG
LL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 60 KTS PLUS...THREAT FOR STG-SVR STORMS DOES
EXIST AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SPC PLACED IN/OH UNDER DAY 4
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE ON MORNING ISSUANCE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON
MENTION IN HWO.
SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND TO WRECK
HAVOC WITH TEMPS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS EVEN INTO SAT REMAIN NEAR OR
ABOVE FREEZING. MORE SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP BACK TO -10 C OR
LOWER. CHANCE FOR PRECIP MAY ARRIVE WITH EACH CLIPPER SYSTEM BUT
KEEPING WITH GOING FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR NOW AS
TIMING/TRACK ISSUES ABOUND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KLAF WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NE ACROSS NRN INDIANA
THIS EVE WITH SNOW DIMINISHING IN ITS WAKE. IN THE MEANTIME
EXPECT IFR TO OCNL LIFR CONDITIONS IN -SN/SN TO CONT AT THE
TERMINALS UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP CAUSING SOME BLSN LATE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT.
ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ LATER THIS EVE AS MID LEVELS DRY
OUT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH
TUE MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER
SHRTWV IN FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUE AFTN. LITTLE
MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM... BUT STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY
RESULT IN SGFNT LLWS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
722 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA... HEAVY AT TIMES
THIS EVENING. SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MIX WITH THE SNOW
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 IN INDIANA AND OHIO. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...HEAVIEST ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN. BRISK WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
OVERNIGHT CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 20... WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
BACK EDGE OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SHRTWV MOVG THROUGH THE
AREA WAS MOVG NE AT ABOUT 30KT INTO SW PORTION OF OUR CWA THIS
EVE. EXPECT SOME SLOWING/FILLING IN AS CIRCULATION CONTS TO
DEEPEN AS IT PULLS AWAY INTO THE LWR GRTLKS TONIGHT. STRONG WEST
WINDS IN WAKE OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO PSBL AS DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA... SO PLAN TO LEAVE WINTER WX
ADVISORY UP AT LEAST THROUGH CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
SNOWFALL RATES 2-3.5 INCHES/HR IN XTRMLY HVY TSSN ENTERING WRN CWA.
CONTD VERY SIMILAR RAP/NAM/PREV BLENDED APPROACH UTILIZED WITH
MIDDAY UPDATE. GENERAL CONTD CONSENSUS OF SREF MEAN AND TIGHT PLUME
PACK IN ADDITION TO 12 UTC NAM COBB OUTPUT SUPPORTS LATEST EVENT
TOTALS IN PRIOR 1233 PM EST WSW UPDATE WITH HIEST GENRLY ALONG NORTH
OF TOLL ROAD. THANKFULLY XTRM RATES BRIEF AND WITH TRANSITION TO
LESS THAN OPTIMAL FLAKE SIZE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD
KEEP MAJORITY OF ACCUMS TO LTE 6 INCHES. SOME CONCERN THOUGH FOR HIR
AMOUNTS WITH TROWAL LIFTING ACRS FAR NRN CWA THIS EVENING PRIOR TO
LIFTG FARTHER N OF CWA BYND 03 UTC...INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT IT WILL
LIE OUT E-W JUST NORTH OF CWA...BEFORE GRDL EWD LIFTOUT. LEADING
WARM CONVEYOR BELT INTENSE WITH XTRM MSTR TAP WITH 6-7 G/KG ON I295K
SFC SLIDES EWD THROUGH SRN IN THIS EVENING...PROVIDING XTRM
MFLUX/UVM ATOP NOSE OF RAMPING SWRLY 850-7H JET AXIS. JETLET OF 65
KTS AT 21 UTC POSITIONED ACRS SRN IN...STRENGTHENS TO 75 KTS MEAN
LYR FLOW INTO SRN OH BY 00 UTC. SPECIAL KILX MIDDAY SNDG YIELDS 320
J/KG MUCAPE/LIFTED FM 7H AND WHILE LATEST RAP TREND NOTED DOWNWARD
WRT MUCAPE WL CONT WITH PRIOR AREA ADDED AND HAVE NOW INCLUDED FAR
ERN AREAS AS WELL IN 22-02 UTC TIMEFRAME GIVEN APPROACH OF STOUT 6-7
C/KM MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATE PLUME AND SYSTEM DEEPENING. MID LVL
CIRC AND TO CLOSE OFF ACRS CHICAGOLAND SHORTLY AND TRACK EWD TO
WINDSOR ONT BY 09 UTC TUE...ALSO SUGGESTING HIEST AMOUNTS HERE/JUST
NORTH OF CWA...WHERE HIGHLY ELEVATED MAX UVM BEST COLLOCATED WITHIN
A SATURATED DGZ. RAPID CRASH OF CLOUD DEPTH IN WAKE OF SYSTEM IN
PERTURBED MOIST BLYR STILL SUGGESTIVE OF BRIEF LIGHT FZDZSN POTNL AT
BEFORE ENDING. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER INTO TUE AWAITING
SHORTWAVE 925MB RIDGING THAT STILL HOLDS JUST WEST FM KGRB INTO NERN
IL AT 12 UTC TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
FOCUS CONTINUES ON WARMER TEMPERATURES/ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH FRIDAY AND FLOODING/SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION LATE TUES NGT INTO
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BE STARVED OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEADING TO A
GENERALLY QUIET PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND COMPARED TO THE AIR OF THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS WILL FEEL DOWNRIGHT NICE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE
START OF THE MELTDOWN OF THE LARGE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S...KEEPING ANY FOG FORMATION AWAY
AND ALLOWING FOR A SLOW RELEASE AND NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES.
PIECE OF ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW WILL DROP
INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND CARVE OUT A DEEPENING TROUGH WHICH WILL
ALLOW A SURGE OF EVEN WARMER AIR STARTING LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURS
GULF OF MEXICO OPENING WIDE TO SEND ABUNDANT MSTR TO THE REGION.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PRECIP ARRIVING LATE WEDS NGT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SHOW ABOVE FREEZING
VALUES...HOWEVER REMAINING SNOWPACK MAY POSE A INITIAL CHALLENGE AND
THREAT OF BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT ONSET OF RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...BY MID THURSDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AND
ANY ICING THREAT OVER. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. IN
ADDITION...LAST FEW FRAMES OF NAM12 AND HINTS ON ECMWF/GFS INDICATE
NEGATIVE SHOWWALTER VALUES BEGIN TO NUDGE IN BY LATE MORNING IN
WESTERN AREAS AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURS AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MSTR RETURN AS SFC DEWPTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
50S IN SE HALF. WHILE SOME MODELS HINT THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN
PRECIP...HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH CAT POPS...INTRODUCED THUNDER
WEST LATE AM AND INCREASED TO CHC THUNDER ALL AREAS THURS AFTN.
CONTINUED MENTION OF FOG WHICH WILL LIKELY BE DENSE AS DWPTS CLIMB
ABOVE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOK TO BE THROUGH THURS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE AFTN INTO EVENING AS
COLD FRONT ARRIVES. IN TERMS OF FLOODING THREAT...GREATEST RELEASE
WILL OCCUR INTO THURS EVE AND ONLY SLOW DOWN SOMEWHAT THURS NGT WITH
TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY. IF ADVERTISED
DEWPOINTS DO ARRIVE...LIKELY WON`T BE MUCH OF A SNOWPACK LEFT WITH
FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOW
40S WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MELTING. HWO AND ESF HAVE THIS HANDLED
WELL THUS FAR SO NO CHANGES PLANNED. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS
FURTHER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MSTR...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG
LL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 60 KTS PLUS...THREAT FOR STG-SVR STORMS DOES
EXIST AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SPC PLACED IN/OH UNDER DAY 4
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE ON MORNING ISSUANCE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON
MENTION IN HWO.
SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND TO WRECK
HAVOC WITH TEMPS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS EVEN INTO SAT REMAIN NEAR OR
ABOVE FREEZING. MORE SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP BACK TO -10 C OR
LOWER. CHANCE FOR PRECIP MAY ARRIVE WITH EACH CLIPPER SYSTEM BUT
KEEPING WITH GOING FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR NOW AS
TIMING/TRACK ISSUES ABOUND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KLAF WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NE ACROSS NRN INDIANA
THIS EVE WITH SNOW DIMINISHING IN ITS WAKE. IN THE MEANTIME
EXPECT IFR TO OCNL LIFR CONDITIONS IN -SN/SN TO CONT AT THE
TERMINALS UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP CAUSING SOME BLSN LATE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT.
ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ LATER THIS EVE AS MID LEVELS DRY
OUT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH
TUE MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER
SHRTWV IN FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUE AFTN. LITTLE
MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM... BUT STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY
RESULT IN SGFNT LLWS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ006>009-
017-018-025>027-032>034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR INZ003>005-012>016-020-022>024.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ079>081.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077-
078.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
624 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA... HEAVY AT TIMES
THIS EVENING. SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MIX WITH THE SNOW
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 IN INDIANA AND OHIO. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...HEAVIEST ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN. BRISK WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
OVERNIGHT CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 20... WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
SNOWFALL RATES 2-3.5 INCHES/HR IN XTRMLY HVY TSSN ENTERING WRN CWA.
CONTD VERY SIMILAR RAP/NAM/PREV BLENDED APPROACH UTILIZED WITH
MIDDAY UPDATE. GENERAL CONTD CONSENSUS OF SREF MEAN AND TIGHT PLUME
PACK IN ADDITION TO 12 UTC NAM COBB OUTPUT SUPPORTS LATEST EVENT
TOTALS IN PRIOR 1233 PM EST WSW UPDATE WITH HIEST GENRLY ALONG NORTH
OF TOLL ROAD. THANKFULLY XTRM RATES BRIEF AND WITH TRANSITION TO
LESS THAN OPTIMAL FLAKE SIZE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD
KEEP MAJORITY OF ACCUMS TO LTE 6 INCHES. SOME CONCERN THOUGH FOR HIR
AMOUNTS WITH TROWAL LIFTING ACRS FAR NRN CWA THIS EVENING PRIOR TO
LIFTG FARTHER N OF CWA BYND 03 UTC...INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT IT WILL
LIE OUT E-W JUST NORTH OF CWA...BEFORE GRDL EWD LIFTOUT. LEADING
WARM CONVEYOR BELT INTENSE WITH XTRM MSTR TAP WITH 6-7 G/KG ON I295K
SFC SLIDES EWD THROUGH SRN IN THIS EVENING...PROVIDING XTRM
MFLUX/UVM ATOP NOSE OF RAMPING SWRLY 850-7H JET AXIS. JETLET OF 65
KTS AT 21 UTC POSITIONED ACRS SRN IN...STRENGTHENS TO 75 KTS MEAN
LYR FLOW INTO SRN OH BY 00 UTC. SPECIAL KILX MIDDAY SNDG YIELDS 320
J/KG MUCAPE/LIFTED FM 7H AND WHILE LATEST RAP TREND NOTED DOWNWARD
WRT MUCAPE WL CONT WITH PRIOR AREA ADDED AND HAVE NOW INCLUDED FAR
ERN AREAS AS WELL IN 22-02 UTC TIMEFRAME GIVEN APPROACH OF STOUT 6-7
C/KM MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATE PLUME AND SYSTEM DEEPENING. MID LVL
CIRC AND TO CLOSE OFF ACRS CHICAGOLAND SHORTLY AND TRACK EWD TO
WINDSOR ONT BY 09 UTC TUE...ALSO SUGGESTING HIEST AMOUNTS HERE/JUST
NORTH OF CWA...WHERE HIGHLY ELEVATED MAX UVM BEST COLLOCATED WITHIN
A SATURATED DGZ. RAPID CRASH OF CLOUD DEPTH IN WAKE OF SYSTEM IN
PERTURBED MOIST BLYR STILL SUGGESTIVE OF BRIEF LIGHT FZDZSN POTNL AT
BEFORE ENDING. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER INTO TUE AWAITING
SHORTWAVE 925MB RIDGING THAT STILL HOLDS JUST WEST FM KGRB INTO NERN
IL AT 12 UTC TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
FOCUS CONTINUES ON WARMER TEMPERATURES/ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH FRIDAY AND FLOODING/SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION LATE TUES NGT INTO
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BE STARVED OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEADING TO A
GENERALLY QUIET PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND COMPARED TO THE AIR OF THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS WILL FEEL DOWNRIGHT NICE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE
START OF THE MELTDOWN OF THE LARGE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S...KEEPING ANY FOG FORMATION AWAY
AND ALLOWING FOR A SLOW RELEASE AND NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES.
PIECE OF ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW WILL DROP
INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND CARVE OUT A DEEPENING TROUGH WHICH WILL
ALLOW A SURGE OF EVEN WARMER AIR STARTING LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURS
GULF OF MEXICO OPENING WIDE TO SEND ABUNDANT MSTR TO THE REGION.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PRECIP ARRIVING LATE WEDS NGT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SHOW ABOVE FREEZING
VALUES...HOWEVER REMAINING SNOWPACK MAY POSE A INITIAL CHALLENGE AND
THREAT OF BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT ONSET OF RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...BY MID THURSDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AND
ANY ICING THREAT OVER. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. IN
ADDITION...LAST FEW FRAMES OF NAM12 AND HINTS ON ECMWF/GFS INDICATE
NEGATIVE SHOWWALTER VALUES BEGIN TO NUDGE IN BY LATE MORNING IN
WESTERN AREAS AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURS AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MSTR RETURN AS SFC DEWPTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
50S IN SE HALF. WHILE SOME MODELS HINT THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN
PRECIP...HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH CAT POPS...INTRODUCED THUNDER
WEST LATE AM AND INCREASED TO CHC THUNDER ALL AREAS THURS AFTN.
CONTINUED MENTION OF FOG WHICH WILL LIKELY BE DENSE AS DWPTS CLIMB
ABOVE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOK TO BE THROUGH THURS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE AFTN INTO EVENING AS
COLD FRONT ARRIVES. IN TERMS OF FLOODING THREAT...GREATEST RELEASE
WILL OCCUR INTO THURS EVE AND ONLY SLOW DOWN SOMEWHAT THURS NGT WITH
TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY. IF ADVERTISED
DEWPOINTS DO ARRIVE...LIKELY WON`T BE MUCH OF A SNOWPACK LEFT WITH
FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOW
40S WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MELTING. HWO AND ESF HAVE THIS HANDLED
WELL THUS FAR SO NO CHANGES PLANNED. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS
FURTHER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MSTR...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG
LL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 60 KTS PLUS...THREAT FOR STG-SVR STORMS DOES
EXIST AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SPC PLACED IN/OH UNDER DAY 4
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE ON MORNING ISSUANCE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON
MENTION IN HWO.
SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND TO WRECK
HAVOC WITH TEMPS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS EVEN INTO SAT REMAIN NEAR OR
ABOVE FREEZING. MORE SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP BACK TO -10 C OR
LOWER. CHANCE FOR PRECIP MAY ARRIVE WITH EACH CLIPPER SYSTEM BUT
KEEPING WITH GOING FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR NOW AS
TIMING/TRACK ISSUES ABOUND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KLAF WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NE ACROSS NRN INDIANA
THIS EVE WITH SNOW DIMINISHING IN ITS WAKE. IN THE MEANTIME
EXPECT IFR TO OCNL LIFR CONDITIONS IN -SN/SN TO CONT AT THE
TERMINALS UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP CAUSING SOME BLSN LATE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT.
ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ LATER THIS EVE AS MID LEVELS DRY
OUT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH
TUE MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER
SHRTWV IN FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUE AFTN. LITTLE
MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM... BUT STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY
RESULT IN SGFNT LLWS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ006>009-
017-018-025>027-032>034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR INZ003>005-012>016-020-022>024.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ079>081.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077-
078.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1242 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
LIGHT SNOW PUSHING INTO AND THRU ERN KY. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY. FCST HAS THIS IN PLACE. STILL
EXPECTING A HALF AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION. UPDATED GRIDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1057 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
PRECIP SEEMS TO BE REACHING THE GROUND FINALLY IN A FEW PLACES ACROSS
CENTRAL KY...MAINLY ALONG THE HEAVIEST REFLECTIVITIES. THIS INCLUDES
THE MONTICELLO SITE...SO THERE IS HOPE THAT SOME OF THIS SNOW IS
FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KY. ONGOING POP FORECAST SEEMS TO
BE VERY WELL ON TRACK...WITH HIGHER POPS MOVING IN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. DID A LOAD OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO MAKE
SURE TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WIND FORECASTS ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF
ONGOING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FLUCTUATE
LITTLE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
DESPITE DECENT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL TN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KY...AND POINTS TO THE NW...SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE TO NO
SNOW REPORTS IN ANY OF THESE AREAS. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS STILL
AROUND 10 DEGREES IN AREAS UNDER THE HIGHEST RETURNS...IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH A LEVEL OF DRY AIR HAS CUT OFF ANY OF THE MOISTURE FROM MAKING
IT TO THE GROUND. IN FACT...AS THE PRECIP HAS NEARED CLOSER...CIGS
HAVE ACTUALLY LIFTED TO MID/HIGH VFR. A FEW SITES HAVE REPORTED
SNOW...BUT IT SEEMS TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT SPORADIC. IF
ANYTHING...THE HRRR IS INITIALIZING THE BEST WITH ITS PRECIP OUTPUT
VS WHERE THE SNOW REPORTS ARE ACTUALLY BEING SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH THAT IN MIND...USED IT AND A BLEND OF THE OFFICIAL...LATEST NAM AND
REGIONAL GEM AS A BASIS TO UPDATE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENTLY...A BAND OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY IS MOVING INTO THE FAR SW
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW
FLAKES OUT OF THIS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT QPF WILL REMAIN AT A
MINIMUM.
IN UPDATING THE POPS...ALSO WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED QPF
ACCORDINGLY...LOWERING IT AND THE 6HR SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY. DO EXPECT
THAT WE WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...BUT SHOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...WITH
SOME PLACES POTENTIALLY MISSING IT ALTOGETHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE THE SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW FLURRIES...EVEN
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS FROM A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY POKING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THIS POINT...OBSERVATIONS UP
NORTH LOOK PRETTY SCARCE AS THIS CLIPPER LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AT
THIS POINT. SHORT TERM MODELS BRING THIS CLIPPER IN PRETTY QUICKLY
THIS EVENING BUT HAS A DECENT LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER TO OVERCOME AT THIS
POINT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL MAINTAIN SUB FREEZING VALUES THROUGH THE
AREA BUT THE LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL KEEP TOTALS TEMPERED QUITE A
BIT...IN FACT LIMITING ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTH AND IN THE EAST HIGH
TERRAIN AT A HALF INCH AND BELOW...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL LATER...POSSIBLY 06Z...FOR THE LOWER LAYER TO BECOME SATURATED.
LOOKING AT THE NAM...THE 08Z TO 11Z TIME FRAME SHOWS A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF DECENT DENDRITIC GROWTH BUT WOULD ONLY RESULT IN ABOUT A
HALF INCH ACCUMULATION BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HIGHLIGHT THIS WITH
A HWO OR BOTH AN HWO AND SPS.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE CLOUD COVER HEADING OFF TO NORTHEAST
AS THE CLIPPER QUICKLY EXITS THE AREA AND BRIEF RIDGING FOLLOWS IN
BEHIND...TEMPS WILL WARM UP INTO THE 40S QUITE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON HIGHER ELEVATIONS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE UPPER 30S DUE TO THE EXITING CLOUD COVER
AND ANY SNOW COVER LEFT OVER. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAINTAINING A
ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...THOUGH A
BIT MORE INTENSE THAN THE LAST...INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING A BIT ON ARRIVAL TIME WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT IT SEEMS RECENT RUNS HAVE CONSENSUS ON A LATER ARRIVAL SO
WILL HOLD OFF BRINGING IN POPS UNTIL THE MONDAY PERIOD WHICH IS IN
THE EXTENDED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER BY MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
RIPPLES IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FIRST WAVE THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BRING A GOOD
SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH OF QPF. A WEAKER RIPPLE WILL
THEN PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO WILL ONLY
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BY THURSDAY...AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE TROUGH WILL DIG IN A LITTLE OVER THE ROCKIES
CREATING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...PEAKING THURSDAY NIGHT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO DECENT WIND PROFILE WITH A
LITTLE PROGGED INSTABILITY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL TO OUR
SOUTH AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WE WILL
PROLONG A MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER THUNDER MENTION ON SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS.
DESPITE ALL THE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE BIG
STORY WILL BE THE WARMING TREND. THIS WILL REALLY KICK IN ONCE THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SENDING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ON
THURSDAY. ENJOY IT BECAUSE IT WILL NOT LAST...IT IS AFTER ALL STILL
FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN KY...EXPECT REDUCTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBY.
BY MORNING...SNOW WILL HAVE MOVED OUT...BUT SOME MVFR CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY AND VFR DAY FOR
SUNDAY AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUSTY
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DUSTY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1232 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
PRECIP SEEMS TO BE REACHING THE GROUND FINALLY IN A FEW PLACES ACROSS
CENTRAL KY...MAINLY ALONG THE HEAVIEST REFLECTIVITIES. THIS INCLUDES
THE MONTICELLO SITE...SO THERE IS HOPE THAT SOME OF THIS SNOW IS
FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KY. ONGOING POP FORECAST SEEMS TO
BE VERY WELL ON TRACK...WITH HIGHER POPS MOVING IN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. DID A LOAD OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO MAKE
SURE TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WIND FORECASTS ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF
ONGOING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FLUCTUATE
LITTLE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
DESPITE DECENT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL TN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KY...AND POINTS TO THE NW...SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE TO NO
SNOW REPORTS IN ANY OF THESE AREAS. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS STILL
AROUND 10 DEGREES IN AREAS UNDER THE HIGHEST RETURNS...IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH A LEVEL OF DRY AIR HAS CUT OFF ANY OF THE MOISTURE FROM MAKING
IT TO THE GROUND. IN FACT...AS THE PRECIP HAS NEARED CLOSER...CIGS
HAVE ACTUALLY LIFTED TO MID/HIGH VFR. A FEW SITES HAVE REPORTED
SNOW...BUT IT SEEMS TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT SPORADIC. IF
ANYTHING...THE HRRR IS INITIALIZING THE BEST WITH ITS PRECIP OUTPUT
VS WHERE THE SNOW REPORTS ARE ACTUALLY BEING SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH THAT IN MIND...USED IT AND A BLEND OF THE OFFICIAL...LATEST NAM AND
REGIONAL GEM AS A BASIS TO UPDATE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENTLY...A BAND OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY IS MOVING INTO THE FAR SW
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW
FLAKES OUT OF THIS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT QPF WILL REMAIN AT A
MINIMUM.
IN UPDATING THE POPS...ALSO WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED QPF
ACCORDINGLY...LOWERING IT AND THE 6HR SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY. DO EXPECT
THAT WE WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...BUT SHOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...WITH
SOME PLACES POTENTIALLY MISSING IT ALTOGETHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE THE SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW FLURRIES...EVEN
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS FROM A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY POKING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THIS POINT...OBSERVATIONS UP
NORTH LOOK PRETTY SCARCE AS THIS CLIPPER LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AT
THIS POINT. SHORT TERM MODELS BRING THIS CLIPPER IN PRETTY QUICKLY
THIS EVENING BUT HAS A DECENT LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER TO OVERCOME AT THIS
POINT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL MAINTAIN SUB FREEZING VALUES THROUGH THE
AREA BUT THE LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL KEEP TOTALS TEMPERED QUITE A
BIT...IN FACT LIMITING ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTH AND IN THE EAST HIGH
TERRAIN AT A HALF INCH AND BELOW...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL LATER...POSSIBLY 06Z...FOR THE LOWER LAYER TO BECOME SATURATED.
LOOKING AT THE NAM...THE 08Z TO 11Z TIME FRAME SHOWS A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF DECENT DENDRITIC GROWTH BUT WOULD ONLY RESULT IN ABOUT A
HALF INCH ACCUMULATION BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HIGHLIGHT THIS WITH
A HWO OR BOTH AN HWO AND SPS.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE CLOUD COVER HEADING OFF TO NORTHEAST
AS THE CLIPPER QUICKLY EXITS THE AREA AND BRIEF RIDGING FOLLOWS IN
BEHIND...TEMPS WILL WARM UP INTO THE 40S QUITE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON HIGHER ELEVATIONS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE UPPER 30S DUE TO THE EXITING CLOUD COVER
AND ANY SNOW COVER LEFT OVER. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAINTAINING A
ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...THOUGH A
BIT MORE INTENSE THAN THE LAST...INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING A BIT ON ARRIVAL TIME WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT IT SEEMS RECENT RUNS HAVE CONSENSUS ON A LATER ARRIVAL SO
WILL HOLD OFF BRINGING IN POPS UNTIL THE MONDAY PERIOD WHICH IS IN
THE EXTENDED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER BY MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
RIPPLES IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FIRST WAVE THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BRING A GOOD
SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH OF QPF. A WEAKER RIPPLE WILL
THEN PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO WILL ONLY
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BY THURSDAY...AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE TROUGH WILL DIG IN A LITTLE OVER THE ROCKIES
CREATING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...PEAKING THURSDAY NIGHT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO DECENT WIND PROFILE WITH A
LITTLE PROGGED INSTABILITY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL TO OUR
SOUTH AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WE WILL
PROLONG A MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER THUNDER MENTION ON SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS.
DESPITE ALL THE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE BIG
STORY WILL BE THE WARMING TREND. THIS WILL REALLY KICK IN ONCE THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SENDING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ON
THURSDAY. ENJOY IT BECAUSE IT WILL NOT LAST...IT IS AFTER ALL STILL
FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN KY...EXPECT REDUCTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBY.
BY MORNING...SNOW WILL HAVE MOVED OUT...BUT SOME MVFR CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY AND VFR DAY FOR
SUNDAY AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DUSTY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1212 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FOR THIS
UPDATE. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A 987 MB LOW CONTINUES TO UNDERGO RAPID
DEEPENING 100 MI SE OF THE CAPE THIS EVENING WITH PRESSURE FALLS
ON THE ORDER OF 4 MB/HR. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL TRACK JUST E OF
HALIFAX AS A 970 MB LOW AT 12Z SUN. THE 18Z GFS AND 00Z RUC HAD
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW AT 00Z AS THE NAM AND
ECMWF WERE A BIT TOO FAR WEST WITH THE LOW CENTER. STEADY SNOW IS
FALLING ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN MOST AREAS AS
OF 930 PM. THE SNOW HAS PUSHED INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE BUT IS
MUCH LIGHTER. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS FALLING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND THE HEAVY SNOW SHOULD MOVE INTO DOWNEAST AREAS AND
ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ONE CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND OF 35-40 KNOTS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS CENTERED AROUND 06Z. THE STRONGEST WIND IS CONFINED
TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE WIND SPEEDS RAPIDLY DROPPING OFF
INLAND. WHAT SNOW IS ON THE GROUND IS CRUSTED OVER AND WILL NOT
BLOW AROUND MUCH. THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS THE WIND
INCREASES AND THE SNOW INCREASES IN INTENSITY. THE POTENTIAL OF
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS ADDRESSED IN THE CURRENT WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THAT ARE OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.
ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE GULF
STREAM AND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED EAST OF
CAPE COD. AROUND MIDNIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LAND FALL
AROUND CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...THEN NORTH TOWARD PRINCE EDWARD
ISLAND. BY MID DAY WILL BE INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE WEST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IT WILL MOVE TO THE NRN
PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. ANALYSIS OF THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR DATA
SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND THE JET SUPPORT SHOW THE UPPER LOW SHOULD
TRACK ACROSS...THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA...ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS CAPE COD...ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...THEN INTO NW NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS TRACK WOULD SUPPORT THE MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
SOMEWHERE JUST WEST OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA FOR LANDFALL. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS ARE UP FOR EASTERN MAINE FROM THE COAST TO THE
CROWN OF MAINE. ADDED ZONES 5 AND 31 TO THE WARNING THAT WERE
ALREADY UP. ZONE 31 MAY FALL A BIT SHORT ON SNOWFALL...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE IMPACT CAUSED BY THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FELT THAT 31
SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN THE WARNING. ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING
ZONES.
LOADED CONSHPCBLEND FOR TEMPS/WNDS/SKY POPS. LOADED HPC FOR POP
GRIDS AND TRIMMED AMOUNTS ACROSS NW ME. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS
IN COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 20 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND
30 PERCENT OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST AND AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH. OTHERWISE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST WITH
A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND SOME BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING CLEARING ON MONDAY
WITH THE AFTERNOON MOSTLY SUNNY FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MIDDAY AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION A BIT DOWNEAST LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE,
TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND A BIT MILDER ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL CONTINUE GOING INTO LATER NEXT WEEK BUT
IT`S LOOKING LIKE STORMS ARE GOING TO BE TRACKING NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME PERIODS OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ONE SMALL LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME MODERATION
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS NUDGING ABOVE FREEZING DOWNEAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY. A LARGER LOW MAY THEN TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT DRAWS AN OCCLUDING FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS
SHOWS A WEAK SECONDARY LOW NEAR THE COAST. IF THIS OCCURS, ENOUGH
COLD AIR MAY REMAIN OVER THE NORTH FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH RAIN
FAVORED DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WOULD FOLLOW FOR EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK THAT MAY
BRING RAIN DOWNEAST AND SNOW OR A MIX OVER THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SNOW DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE INTO NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. IFR
CONDITIONS BHB...BGR...AND HUL IN LIGHT SNOW...BCMG LIFR TO BELOW
MINS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING. LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD TO PQI...CAR...AND FVE AROUND MIDNIGHT.
CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN SITES WILL REMAIN IFR TO THE END OF THE
PERIOD IN WRAP AROUND PRECIP.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT THEN BE
VFR IN HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
LIKELY IN HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA SUN MORNING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUN MORNING AS THE LOW EXITS
THE AREA TO THE EAST. A GALE WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED SUNDAY FOLLOWING
THE STORM WARNING.
SHORT TERM: A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER. AN SCA MAY BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ002-
005-006-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ001-003-004-010.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ011-
015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HASTINGS/NORTON/BLOOMER
MARINE...HASTINGS/NORTON/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
854 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OTTAWA EXTENDS DOWN THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
QUICK HITTING BAND OF PRECIP HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE MIDWEST.
EXPECT ONLY ABOUT 4 TO 5 HOURS OF PRECIP THREAT AT ANY GIVEN SPOT
AS THE BAND RACES EAST. THE 18Z NAM AND GFS...12Z EURO...15Z SREF
MEAN AND MEMBERS...AND 23Z HRRR WRF ALL PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE.
SNOW SHOULD BE DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE. EXCEPTIONS ARE NELSON AND
ALBEMARLE COUNTIES IN OUR SW WHERE SLEET WILL LIKELY MIX IN...AND
LOWER SOUTHERN MD WHERE SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN
LIMITING ACCUMS THERE. THE MOUNTAINS AND MD SEEM TO HAVE THE
THREAT FOR HIGHER ACCUMS...WITH VA AND S HALF OF THE E WV
PANHANDLE FALLING IN AN ACCUM MINIMUM. HOWEVER...TAKING THAT INTO
ACCOUNT WITH MIXED PRECIP IN S MD...AND I THINK THAT THE CURRENT
SNOW ACCUM FORECAST IS REASONABLE WITH BASICALLY THE N TIER OF MD
COUNTIES GETTING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. EXPECT ALL PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND BALT-WASH BY ABOUT 5AM.
OTHER THREAT IS POSSIBLE GUSTY SHOWERS OVER THE S HALF OF THE MD
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC TOWARDS DAWN. MORE ON THAT IN THE
MARINE SECTION FURTHER BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS QUICKLY AS IT MOVES IN THE FTNL BNDRY WL BE DEPARTING...W/ HIGH
PRES RETURNING FOR TUESDAY. DO NOT FEEL UPSLOPE SNSH WL BE MUCH OF
A FACTOR AS THE PRIMARY MOISTURE SOURCES HV BEEN CUT OFF. SKIES
SHOULD BE CLRG OVR THE BULK OF THE AREA BY MID MRNG. AFTN TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 40S...PSBLY EVEN L50S IN CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
AHEAD OF AN UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO THE MIDDLE
30S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED SO ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE LIGHT. A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WIND ALONG
WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL CANCEL OUT THE COLD
ADVECTION...ALLOWING FOR MILD CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. MAX TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. MAX TEMPS MAY EVEN BREAK 60 DEGREES IN THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR DRY
AND SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY AND A RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR MORE MILD
CONDITIONS.
A DEEP TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. A SLOWER
AND MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WOULD FAVOR A SLOWER
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR EVEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR BETTER INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A STRONGER/DEEPER TROUGH WOULD ALSO BRING BETTER
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND JET DYNAMICS CLOSER TO THE AREA. THIS
COUPLED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ENHANCED BY
A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW UPSTREAM AND
AN AMPLIFYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WOULD
LEND TO A HIGHER POTENTIAL OF A LOW-TOPPED LINE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FOR THIS
REASON...SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A DAY 5 RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...SO THIS
SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY...A COOLING TREND WILL ENSUE
OVER THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES COULD OFFER A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND BUT MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH...SO CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS THIS EVE WL BE DIMINISHING ARND MDNGT AS A FTNL BNDRY
APRCHS THE APLCHNS...BRINGING LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS AS SNOW
MOVES THRU BTWN 06 AND 11Z. CONDS SHOULD IMPRV QUICKLY TUE MRNG.
VFR FOR THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH MVFR CIGS. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THU NIGHT-FRI IN SHOWERS. SLY FLOW OF
10-20 KTS GUSTING 25-30 KTS DURING THIS TIME...BECOMING WLY AND
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
CONCERNED ABOUT GUSTY SHOWERS TOWARDS DAWN OVER THE SOUTHERN MD
CHES BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC. THERE IS 30-60KT OF WIND IN THE
FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IF A LINE OF SHOWERS
CAN DEVELOP OVER MD AS THE STORM MAKES ITS EXIT...THERE WOULD BE A
THREAT OF A GALE FORCE GUST AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS OF DAWN. MARINERS SHOULD TAKE NOTE AND BE READY TO
SEEK HARBOR QUICKLY IF NECESSARY EARLY TUE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO IN PLACE FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7AM FOR GUSTS OVER 18KTS.
AFTR ERLY MRNG PCPN EXITS THE WATERS TUE MORN NO PROBS XPCTD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT
MOVES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF GALES AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRI. WINDS/WAVES DIMINISH AS THE
FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT REMAINS HIGH...OVER 2.5 INCHES NEAR THE MASON-
DIXON LINE. A WARMUP BEGINS MIDWEEK WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MELTING OF SNOWPACK. WE WILL MONITOR FLOOD POTENTIAL.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MDZ006-007-010-011-013-014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ003>005-
009-501-502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
038>040-042-051>054-501>504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ531>543.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...STRONG
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/BJL/DFH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
720 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED EARLY TO ISSUE THE UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT PRODUCED
RATES IN THE 1-2 INCH PER HOUR RANGE IN THE TRI CITIES WITH THE
DEFORMATION/TROWAL PORTION OF THE SYSTEM YET TO GO. DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN HAS THINGS OFF TO A SLOW START SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 69 BUT
THIS WILL BE MADE UP FOR BY BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW,
IMPLIED BY 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY, FROM ACTIVITY MOVING IN
FROM INDIANA AND OHIO.
THE LEADING QUICK 2 INCH ACCUMULATION IN THE TRI CITIES MADE THE
UPGRADE CALL A BIT EASIER EVEN WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY LEFT ON THE
THE TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS PROGRESSION. EVEN WITHOUT A PIVOT, THE
NORTH FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION NOW LOOKS CAPABLE OF 6 INCHES IN 9
HOURS OR POSSIBLY 8 INCHES IN 12 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS
INTO ONTARIO BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM. THE NORTHWARD INTRUSION OF THE
DRY SLOT WILL KEEP TOTAL ACCUMULATION IN THE ADVISORY RANGE OVER
THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE NEAR THE
OHIO BORDER WHERE SNOW PELLETS, WHILE REPRESENTING CONVECTIVE
FORCING, WILL ACTUALLY CUT INTO SNOW RATIO ENOUGH TO LIMIT
ACCUMULATION.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 624 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
//DISCUSSION...
AS SNOW FILTERS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TAF SITES ARE RAPIDLY GOING
FROM VFR TO VLIFR IN LESS THAN AN HOUR AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. DESPITE THE METRO AIRPORTS CURRENTLY
SITTING AT VFR PLAN TO START THE TAFS AT LIFR TEMPO VLIFR GIVEN THE
VERY FAST TRANSITION UPSTREAM SITES HAVE EXPERIENCED AS CONDITIONS
TANK QUICKLY. THE MAIN SITE WHERE THIS WILL BE AN EXCEPTION IS DET
GIVEN THE ARE FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN DTW AND YIP. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN SNOW BECOMES LIGHTER. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE LOW.
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH 5 TO 8 INCHES AT
MBS.
FOR DTW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP QUICKLY BELOW 1000 FEET AND 1SM
BETWEEN 00 AND 01Z WITH ONSET OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. RATES WILL
THEN INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED AT PEAK
INTENSITY 00Z-04Z. TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 3-6 INCHES THAT HAS BEEN
CALLED FOR WILL LIKELY VERIFY CLOSER TO THE 6 INCH END OF THE
RANGE.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT LATE THROUGH TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY 1/2 MILE OR LESS IN HEAVY SNOW
DURING THE EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR HIGH
END ADVISORY SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE RANGE OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL
LIKELY VERIFY CLOSER TO THE 6 INCH END OF THE RANGE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND A SHORT FUSED WARNING
UPGRADE ALSO REMAINS IN PLAY AS THE POSITION AND CHARACTER OF
MESOSCALE FORCING BECOMES CLEARER. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN
THE TRI CITIES TO NORTHERN THUMB BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AS THEY
BECOME AVAILABLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH AN UPGRADE LIES WITH THE PROGRESSION VERSUS
PIVOT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS ON THE NORTH FLANK OF THE SYSTEM AND
THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE DRY SLOT. OBSERVATIONS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A PIVOT WHICH WOULD PERMIT HIGHER RATES FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME AND HIGHER SYSTEM TOTALS AND/OR 6 INCH AMOUNTS
COMING IN CLOSER TO 6 TO 9 HOUR TIME PERIOD. FARTHER SOUTH, A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT IN THE FORCING WILL BRING HIGH SNOWFALL RATES
AND EVEN SOME GRAUPEL/SNOW PELLETS WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT
TIMES BEFORE THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONFINES TOTAL ACCUMULATION
CLOSER TO 4 INCHES.
MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
ILLINOIS/INDIANA COMING TOGETHER IN A STRONGLY DYNAMIC FASHION.
VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS
OF CG LIGHTNING STRIKES DEPICTS THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
SITUATION, AS DOES THE SPECIAL 18Z KILX SOUNDING WITH BORDERLINE DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. NEAR TERM MODEL
FIELDS HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS AS A STRONG COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
DCVA AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ON 850 MB WIND PUSHING 50
KNOTS. THE WIND FIELD WILL EVENTUALLY GET CONVERTED TO TROWAL
FORCING WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY SETTLING IN AROUND 3 G/KG. THE
TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SET UP NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS THE SURFACE LOW DROPS FROM 1007 MB TO NEAR
1000 MB OVER THE EAST SHORE OF LAKE ST CLAIR BY MIDNIGHT. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE WILL BE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BOTH WITHIN
THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND ON THE INTERIOR FLANK OF THE
TROWAL/THETA-E RIDGE. THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH
THE STRONG WIND FIELD WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES IN THE 1-2 INCH
PER HOUR RANGE. IN ADDITION, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES THAT DEPICT A DGZ DEPTH ROUGHLY
FROM 600 TO 800 MB THAT SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW RATIO IN THE 10-13:1
RANGE. THE NAM AND THE RAP MODELS SEEMINGLY HAVE ALSO PICKED UP ON
THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING REFLECTED IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF RANGING FROM 0.6 TO 0.8
IN THE 12 HOUR PERIOD FROM 18Z TO 06Z TONIGHT. THIS ILLUSTRATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR OVERACHIEVEMENT SHOULD MESOSCALE FORCING STALL OVER
ANY ONE REGION OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE EASTWARD ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR SNOW TO DIMINISH ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MID WEEK BEFORE BROAD TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ENERGETIC JET WILL
SHIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW A WARMUP THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S AND EVEN NEAR 40F BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
AND STRONG SYSTEM PUSHES THE MILD AIR SOUTH DROPPING US BACK INTO
THE 20S. THE DIFFICULTY IN THE TEMP FORECAST WILL BE TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT THE DEEP SNOWPACK THAT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BACK EDGE OF MONDAYS SYSTEM HOLDS OVER
THE AREA. AS THIS EXITS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
FROM A MUCH LARGER SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS...ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA...WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SW FLOW AND A WAA
PATTERN. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL CLIMB FROM -8C/-12C AT 850MB/925MB
CURRENTLY UP TO AROUND 3-5C BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDING KEEP THE BOUNDARY MUCH COOLER THOUGH WITH TEMPS STILL BELOW
0C. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX SOME OF THAT DOWN BUT THE COLD
DEEP SNOWPACK WILL WORK AGAINST IT MUCH OF TIME. WITH THE WARMEST
AIR TAKING SO LONG TO GET INTO THE AREA...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS
AROUND THE MID 30S FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAYS FORECAST WILL ALSO BE A TRICKY ONE AS A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES FROM THIS FRONT BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE DOES NOT TANK MUCH AS
RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. MID LEVELS DO COOL
QUITE A BIT THOUGH. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...SHOULD NOT BE TOO HARD TO GET BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
EVEN WITH SFC-800MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 0C. POTENTIAL TO ADD A
DEGREE OR TWO TO THE FORECAST BUT ONCE AGAIN WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW
SEVERE THE SNOW PACK AFFECTS THINGS BEFORE GOING TOO HIGH.
LOW PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THE TRACK AND
ORIENTATION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO ENHANCE QPF AMOUNTS AND ALSO WARM THE SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY.
EXPECTING BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 INCHES OF RAINFALL ALONG WITH
CONSIDERABLE SNOWMELT FROM THIS SYSTEM...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
RIVER/AREAL FLOOD ISSUES. AVERAGE SNOW CORES ACROSS THE REGION ARE
OVER 3 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN 16 INCHES OF SNOW
DEPTH...EXCLUDING THE 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED TONIGHT.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS
TO WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHEAST THROUGH LAKE ST CLAIR TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO BRIEFLY TOP 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR.
WINDS WILL RELAX SOME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD AGAIN LEAD TO GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY BUT THIS TIME OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SUBSTANTIAL
ICE COVERAGE ACROSS ALL MARINE AREAS WILL KEEP WAVES ABSENT FROM ALL
FORECAST PRODUCTS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054...UNTIL 4
AM TUESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...MIZ055-MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-
MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083...UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
630 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHRTWVS...THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL IL. MODERATE 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV FARTHER NORTH AHEAD OF A WEAKER SHRTWV OVER NW WI
SUPPORTED LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FORM NRN WI THROUGH UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE HEAVIER SNOW THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN PORTION OF THE
CWA...WHERE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY AFTER
21Z. DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY EXITS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SE OF REGION AND LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN WITH
STRONG MID LVL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING LATE TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL BRUSH
LAKE SUPERIOR. A BAND OF 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...925-850 MB RH FCST SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH CLEARING AND SUNSHINE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE LOW AND MID 30S NORTH AND EAST AND THE UPPER 30S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
PROGRESSIVE/LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WARMER
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CENTERED ON THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE WARMTH WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ALL INDICATIONS POINT
TOWARD THE RETURN OF A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED ALONG OR SLIGHTLY
INLAND OF THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MANY OF THE
GEM ENSEMBLES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE INDICATED A VERY COLD
REGIME FOR LATE FEB NEXT WEEK...AND NOW TODAYS 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A
BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS DUMPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A REINFORCING SHOT UPSTREAM YET.
DETERMINISTIC GFS RUNS OUT TO 16 DAYS HAVE SHOWN WIDE FLUCTUATION IN
THE LAST DAY OR SO... BUT RUNS KEEP APPEARING THAT MAINTAIN A VERY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF...LEADING TO A VERY COLD
PERIOD FOR THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY EVENT...AS THIS CHANGE BACK TO A
COLD PATTERN GETS UNDERWAY...ATTENTION WILL BE ON AN AMPLIFYING TROF
SHIFTING ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK. OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH PHASING OF SHORTWAVES
WITHIN THE DEEPENING TROF. HOWEVER...WITH TODAYS 12Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL RUNS...THERE ARE SOLID TRENDS TOWARD MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTING NE AND PHASING WITH A NRN BRANCH WAVE OVER
AND JUST NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT (SNOW AND MIXED PCPN) DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FCST. OUTSIDE OF THIS ONE EVENT...NOT MUCH PCPN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM.
BEGINNING TUE NIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. WITH SEVERAL DISJOINTED VORT CENTERS COMPRISING
THE TROF...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN...ESPECIALLY WITH DEEP
LAYER FORCING/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXITING TO THE E OF THE AREA
ALREADY IN THE EVENING. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT
OF -SN/FLURRY ACTIVITY OVER THE E EARLY IN THE EVENING. AFTER
THAT...QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE MIGHT BE SOME FLURRIES OR MORE
LIKELY -FZDZ AS TEMP PROFILE IN LINGERING GENERALLY SHALLOW MOISTURE
IS ABOVE -10C. UNDER W TO WNW LOW-LEVEL WINDS...BEST CHANCE WOULD BE
OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF WRN UPPER MI AND PERHAPS THE FAR NE FCST
AREA AS WINDS VEER WNW THERE LATER IN THE NIGHT. SINCE ANY
ADDITIONAL MOISTENING THAT COULD BE PROVIDED BY LAKE SUPERIOR IS
VERY LIMITED AS THE LAKE IS NEARLY COMPLETELY ICED OVER...WILL HOLD
OFF ON INCLUDING A MENTION OF -FZDZ. TUE NIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE
WARMER NIGHTS IN QUITE A WHILE UNDER PACIFIC AIR MASS WITH WINDS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
WED WILL BE A DRY DAY AS SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTS E OF THE AREA AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE
SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGERING INTO WED MORNING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
SEE A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE WED. HIGHER MID TO LATE FEB SUN ANGLE
WORKING ON THE LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE BOARD. MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A
FEW LOCATIONS TO REACH 40F WHERE DOWNSLOPING OCCURS. WITH W TO WNW
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
OVER WRN UPPER MI AND OVER THE NE FCST AREA. IN THOSE LOCATIONS...
TEMPS SHOULDN`T RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS STRONGLY TRENDED
TOWARD MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS OF AMPLIFYING TROF
SHIFTING ACROSS THE CONUS MID AND LATE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT HAS APPEARED WITH TODAYS 12Z MODEL RUNS IS RATHER
REMARKABLE GIVEN THE VERY RECENT DISAGREEMENT...THE SHORTWAVES
INVOLVED ARE STILL IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ALEUTIANS...SUGGESTING
CONTINUED ADJUSTMENTS ARE IN THE OFFING. THAT SAID...THE
GEM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT TODAY SHOWING A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OVER THE SRN PLAINS THU AND THEN LIFTING NE AND
PHASING WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
RESULT IS A SFC LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS THU MORNING LIFTING NE
ACROSS NW IL AND THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES JUST E OF KGRB
THEN ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU NIGHT. WITH 12HR HEIGHT FALLS OF
250-300M AT 500MB...THIS WILL BE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH A
RAPIDLY ORGANIZING/INTENSIFYING PCPN SHIELD AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES. WITH SYSTEM TAPPING A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE...
STRONG DYNAMICS WILL MAKE THIS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCER ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MI. BASED OFF 12Z MODELS WHICH ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...PTYPE SHOULD BE JUST SNOW W OF LINE ROUGHLY FROM JUST NW
MENOMINEE TO AROUND MUNISING WITH A WINTRY MIX TO THE E FOR AT LEAST
A TIME. HOWEVER...UNTIL SHORTWAVES INVOLVED ARRIVE IN THE
CONUS/CANADA...EXPECT SOME FLUCTUATION IN SYSTEM STRENGTH/TRACK AND
THERMAL FIELDS/PTYPES. POPS WILL BE RAISED ACROSS THE BOARD TO
CATEGORICAL FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THU AFTN/NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
EXACTLY HOW STRONG THE LOW BECOMES...WINDS/BLSN COULD BECOME
SIGNIFICANT ON THE BACKSIDE. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS BACKSIDE WINDS
WILL BE FROM A W TO WNW DIRECTION. IF SO...THOUGH FALLING SNOW WILL
BE MUCH LIGHTER...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
KEWEENAW WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF BLSN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR ICE
COVER. STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY LOOSEN UP ICE COVER AND CREATE
SUFFICIENT BREAKS FOR SOME LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE PULLS OUT FRI AND 850MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID -TEENS C.
ARCTIC AIR BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HOW COLD IS UNCERTAIN...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE
SOLIDLY BLO NORMAL WITH A TREND TO COLDER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND BEYOND. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME -SN AT TIMES AND PROBABLY SOME
LIMITED LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO FRACTURED ICE
COVER/SMALL OPEN WATER AREAS...NO PCPN OF SIGNIFICANCE IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS POINT SAT THRU MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SNOW TAPERS OFF AND WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 445 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 30 KTS THROUGH WED. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY. THIS WOULD
LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST TO WEST GALES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
014-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ001-003>005-010>013-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
418 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE WEST AND CNTRL CONUS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHRTWVS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. LINGERING CONFLUENT FLOW
OVER NRN ONTARIO INTO THE NRN LAKES AND ASSOCIATED SFC ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION. VIS LOOP
SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUD SPREADING QUICKLY THROUGH MN WITH THE WAA
REGIME AHEAD OF LOW PRES OVER THE WRN PLAINS.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...PER MDLS RH FCST AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY
WITH GRADUALLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. OVER THE
ERN CWA...WITH THE LONGER PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS COULD DROP
TO AROUND -10F OR EVENING COLDER. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE ZERO TO
-5F RANGE ARE EXPECTED CENTRAL AND 0 TO 5F WEST.
MONDAY...THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THE
STRONGER 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE THE SRN SHRTWV
WILL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SRN WI INTO SRN LOWER MI.
HOWEVER...THE WEAKER QG FORCING TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH 285K-290K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH 2G/KG AVAILABLE SHOULD ALSO
SUPPORT MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE STRONGER
DYNAMICS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...THE FCST LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF CONSENSUS QPF VALUES...MAINLY IN THE 0.25 TO 0.35 INCH
RANGE...PER NAM AND REGIONAL GEM. UPWARD MOTION THE DGZ SUPPORTS SLR
VALUES IN THE 15/1 TO 20/1 RANGE GIVING OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE. ALTHOUGH SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY AT TIMES...BLSN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED TO COVER THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE TO REACH OR EXCEED THE 6 INCH WARNING
THRESHOLD WOULD BE OVER THE SRN CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO POST A WINTER STORM WARNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER WRN UPPER MI AT 00Z TUE AND WILL
PUSH E OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TUE. MOST OF THE SNOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM COMES PRIOR TO 00Z TUE...SO WILL LEAVE MOST OF THE DISCUSSION
OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER. 12Z/16 GFS CONTINUES TO
APPEAR TOO FAST WITH THE SYSTEM...SO STUCK WITH NON-GFS SOLUTIONS
FOR POPS/QPF. MOST OF THE ADDITIONAL SNOW MON NIGHT FALLS PRIOR TO
06Z...WITH NO SNOW EXPECTED IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME PERIOD OVER FAR WRN
UPPER MI TO 2 INCHES OVER THE ERN CWA.
DEEP MOISTURE EXITS WITH THE SHORTWAVE LATE MON NIGHT WHILE MID/LOW
LEVEL TEMPS INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL PORTION OF A WARM FRONT MOVES
IN FROM THE W. THIS TRAPS MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OVER THE ERN
CWA WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION...WHICH LEAVES THE DGZ DRY AND
SUB-INVERSION TEMPS NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. THINK
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER ERN UPPER MI FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS THE SFC PORTION OF
THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE CENTRAL AND WRN CWA WILL NOT SEE AS
MUCH MOISTURE UNDER THE INVERSION...SO NOT AS WORRIED THERE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TOPOGRAPHY FOR UPSLOPE WITH THE
SW WINDS OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...WILL NOT ADD FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THE REST OF TUE IS TRICKY...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
APPROACHING FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. A THERMAL RIDGE
PASSES OVERHEAD AROUND MID DAY TUE WITH 850MB TEMPS AOA 0C IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WARMER TEMPS. NEGATIVES FOR THE
WARMER TEMPS ARE EASIER TO COME UP WITH...INCLUDING THE FACT THAT IT
HAS BEEN QUITE COLD LATELY SO THE SNOW PACK IS VERY COLD. WE WILL
HAVE FRESH SNOW FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENING THAT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS
COLD AND SFC ALBEDO LOWER. ANY WARMING POTENTIAL FROM THE NORMAL
WARMER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE REDUCED OR ELIMINATED DUE
TO ICE COVER. UNTIL THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THERE SHOULD BE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL LIMIT WARMING. A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE CWA LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE EVENING...BRINGING
COLDER AIR AND MORE CLOUDS. IN FACT...BY 00Z WED...NWRN UPPER MI
SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -4C. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE FOR
THE WARMER TEMPS IS THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NRN CWA FROM EARLY TUE AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUE EVENING...WHICH WILL AT LEAST KEEP CLOUD COVER UP OVER
NRN UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR AND MAY EVEN BRING SOME MINOR LIGHT
SNOW /SINCE AREAS OF THE LOW AND MID LEVELS THAT WILL BE ABOVE 0C
WILL BE DRY WITH SUB-ZERO WET BULB TEMPS/. CONSIDERING ALL
THIS...TEMPS WILL BE VERY CONDITIONAL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS OVER SRN UPPER MI NEAR THE WI BORDER.
LEFT TEMPS SIMILAR ALONG THE WI BORDER...BUT LOWERED A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OVER NRN AREAS.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED WED AND TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPS AOB -5C AT 18Z.
ANOTHER THERMAL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR
FOR THE REST OF THU ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER. AS FAR AS
PRECIP IS CONCERNED...THINGS ARE A LOT MORE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DO
NOT HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF
THE SHORTWAVE. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES APPEAR THE BULK OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL GO N OF THE CWA...WITH POSSIBLY ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL OVER UPPER MI. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN THE PRECIP
FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THEN FOR FRI THROUGH NEXT SUN...IT APPEARS THAT UPPER TROUGHING WILL
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CONUS...BRINGING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WHILE THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE COLDER
TEMPS...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW. USED GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
MVFR CIGS AT SAW AND IWD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE
WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION AND GREATER LOW LEVEL MIXING. SOME WAA LIGHT SNOW COULD REACH
INTO KIWD LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES IN
THE MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY DROPPING TO IFR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
OVERALL...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING OVER EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR...BUT GALES ARE
NOT EXPECTED AS MAIN SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER CNTRL AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY TREND STRONGER LATE THIS WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ006-007-014-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 10 PM EST /9
PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ001-003>005-010>013-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6
PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
337 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE EXITING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FCST AREA. LINGERING MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A NNE FLOW OF -18C 8H TEMPS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR IS STILL SUPPORTING SOME LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW/FLURRIES OVER
THE MAINLY THE SE CWA AND ALSO SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO
NCNTRL PORTIONS OF UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...MID-LVL RDGG AND Q-VECT DIV AND
ASSOC MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE AS NOTED ON FCST SNDGS SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID
DIMINISHMENT OF ANY REMAINING LES OVER NCNTRL COUNTIES BY LATE
MORNING. UNTIL THEN...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR LIGHT
LES/FLURRIES. CONTINUED NNE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MAY ALLOW
SOME LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR NCNTRL COUNTIES
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE THRU AFTERNOON
HRS. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO BETTER PERFORMING REGIONAL GEM GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH HIGHS AROUND 10F NORTH TO NEAR 20F SW ALONG THE WI
BORDER.
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT. GFS IS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN REST OF MODELS WITH ONSET
OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING OF COLUMN FOR PCPN. GFS
APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT SO WILL SIDE MORE WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND OF ECMWF/REGIONAL GEM/NAM AND UKMET AND CARRY
POPS FOR MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH LIKELY POPS OF 60 PCT
NEAR KIWD BY 12Z MON. CONSENSUS QPF OF AROUND .07 INCH BETWEEN
06-12Z ALONG WITH EXPECTED SLR NEAR 17/1 SHOULD YIELD AROUND ONE
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT FOR KIWD AREA. MIN TEMPS IN
SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE EVENING OVER
THE WRN CWA AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR RISE LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASED
MIXING FROM TIGHTENING SRLY GRAD AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND
INCREASING WAA CLOUDS. LONGER PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER EAST HALF WHERE
BLO ZERO TEMPS AREA EXPECTED. A FEW OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD RAWS
SITES OVER ERN CWA COULD SEE MIN TEMPS OF -10F OR COLDER. AGAIN
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO BETTER PERFORMING CANADIAN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER WRN UPPER MI AT 00Z TUE AND WILL
PUSH E OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TUE. MOST OF THE SNOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM COMES PRIOR TO 00Z TUE...SO WILL LEAVE MOST OF THE DISCUSSION
OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER. 12Z/16 GFS CONTINUES TO
APPEAR TOO FAST WITH THE SYSTEM...SO STUCK WITH NON-GFS SOLUTIONS
FOR POPS/QPF. MOST OF THE ADDITIONAL SNOW MON NIGHT FALLS PRIOR TO
06Z...WITH NO SNOW EXPECTED IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME PERIOD OVER FAR WRN
UPPER MI TO 2 INCHES OVER THE ERN CWA.
DEEP MOISTURE EXITS WITH THE SHORTWAVE LATE MON NIGHT WHILE MID/LOW
LEVEL TEMPS INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL PORTION OF A WARM FRONT MOVES
IN FROM THE W. THIS TRAPS MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OVER THE ERN
CWA WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION...WHICH LEAVES THE DGZ DRY AND
SUB-INVERSION TEMPS NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. THINK
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER ERN UPPER MI FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS THE SFC PORTION OF
THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE CENTRAL AND WRN CWA WILL NOT SEE AS
MUCH MOISTURE UNDER THE INVERSION...SO NOT AS WORRIED THERE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TOPOGRAPHY FOR UPSLOPE WITH THE
SW WINDS OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...WILL NOT ADD FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THE REST OF TUE IS TRICKY...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
APPROACHING FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. A THERMAL RIDGE
PASSES OVERHEAD AROUND MID DAY TUE WITH 850MB TEMPS AOA 0C IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WARMER TEMPS. NEGATIVES FOR THE
WARMER TEMPS ARE EASIER TO COME UP WITH...INCLUDING THE FACT THAT IT
HAS BEEN QUITE COLD LATELY SO THE SNOW PACK IS VERY COLD. WE WILL
HAVE FRESH SNOW FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENING THAT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS
COLD AND SFC ALBEDO LOWER. ANY WARMING POTENTIAL FROM THE NORMAL
WARMER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE REDUCED OR ELIMINATED DUE
TO ICE COVER. UNTIL THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THERE SHOULD BE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL LIMIT WARMING. A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE CWA LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE EVENING...BRINGING
COLDER AIR AND MORE CLOUDS. IN FACT...BY 00Z WED...NWRN UPPER MI
SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -4C. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE FOR
THE WARMER TEMPS IS THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NRN CWA FROM EARLY TUE AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUE EVENING...WHICH WILL AT LEAST KEEP CLOUD COVER UP OVER
NRN UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR AND MAY EVEN BRING SOME MINOR LIGHT
SNOW /SINCE AREAS OF THE LOW AND MID LEVELS THAT WILL BE ABOVE 0C
WILL BE DRY WITH SUB-ZERO WET BULB TEMPS/. CONSIDERING ALL
THIS...TEMPS WILL BE VERY CONDITIONAL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS OVER SRN UPPER MI NEAR THE WI BORDER.
LEFT TEMPS SIMILAR ALONG THE WI BORDER...BUT LOWERED A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OVER NRN AREAS.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED WED AND TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPS AOB -5C AT 18Z.
ANOTHER THERMAL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR
FOR THE REST OF THU ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER. AS FAR AS
PRECIP IS CONCERNED...THINGS ARE A LOT MORE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DO
NOT HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF
THE SHORTWAVE. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES APPEAR THE BULK OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL GO N OF THE CWA...WITH POSSIBLY ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL OVER UPPER MI. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN THE PRECIP
FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THEN FOR FRI THROUGH NEXT SUN...IT APPEARS THAT UPPER TROUGHING WILL
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CONUS...BRINGING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WHILE THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE COLDER
TEMPS...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW. USED GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
MVFR CIGS AT SAW AND IWD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE
WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION AND GREATER LOW LEVEL MIXING. SOME WAA LIGHT SNOW COULD REACH
INTO KIWD LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES IN
THE MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY DROPPING TO IFR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
OVERALL...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING OVER EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR...BUT GALES ARE
NOT EXPECTED AS MAIN SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER CNTRL AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY TREND STRONGER LATE THIS WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. WITH THE LAKE ALMOST COMPLETELY
ICE COVERED...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ006-007-014-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 10 PM EST /9
PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ001-003>005-010>013-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6
PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
105 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE EXITING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FCST AREA. LINGERING MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A NNE FLOW OF -18C 8H TEMPS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR IS STILL SUPPORTING SOME LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW/FLURRIES OVER
THE MAINLY THE SE CWA AND ALSO SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO
NCNTRL PORTIONS OF UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...MID-LVL RDGG AND Q-VECT DIV AND
ASSOC MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE AS NOTED ON FCST SNDGS SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID
DIMINISHMENT OF ANY REMAINING LES OVER NCNTRL COUNTIES BY LATE
MORNING. UNTIL THEN...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR LIGHT
LES/FLURRIES. CONTINUED NNE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MAY ALLOW
SOME LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR NCNTRL COUNTIES
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE THRU AFTERNOON
HRS. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO BETTER PERFORMING REGIONAL GEM GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH HIGHS AROUND 10F NORTH TO NEAR 20F SW ALONG THE WI
BORDER.
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT. GFS IS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN REST OF MODELS WITH ONSET
OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING OF COLUMN FOR PCPN. GFS
APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT SO WILL SIDE MORE WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND OF ECMWF/REGIONAL GEM/NAM AND UKMET AND CARRY
POPS FOR MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH LIKELY POPS OF 60 PCT
NEAR KIWD BY 12Z MON. CONSENSUS QPF OF AROUND .07 INCH BETWEEN
06-12Z ALONG WITH EXPECTED SLR NEAR 17/1 SHOULD YIELD AROUND ONE
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT FOR KIWD AREA. MIN TEMPS IN
SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE EVENING OVER
THE WRN CWA AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR RISE LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASED
MIXING FROM TIGHTENING SRLY GRAD AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND
INCREASING WAA CLOUDS. LONGER PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER EAST HALF WHERE
BLO ZERO TEMPS AREA EXPECTED. A FEW OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD RAWS
SITES OVER ERN CWA COULD SEE MIN TEMPS OF -10F OR COLDER. AGAIN
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO BETTER PERFORMING CANADIAN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THIS WEEK AS TROUGHING THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE OVER GREAT LAKES FOR QUITE SOME TIME TAKES A BREAK.
TWO LARGER SCALE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND
AGAIN WEDNESDY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS LOOK TO COME THROUGH IN SPLIT FASHION...RESULTING IN THE
MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY IN RUN TO RUN PREDICTABILITY. AT THIS POINT
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD SNOW IS ON MONDAY. WETTER SYSTEM
FOR LATE THE WEEK NOT AS CLEAR CUT DUE TO THE SPLIT NATURE OF
SHORTWAVES AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FCST TO IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. SEEMS THAT THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD HOLDS
BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPS REACHING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE EARLY DECEMBER AT WFO MARQUETTE.
MONDAY...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIDES
EAST ACROSS CNTRL CONUS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...BUT SPLITS INTO TWO
PIECES OF ENERGY WHILE DOING SO. SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE FCST TO MISS UPR
MICHIGAN INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES. MODELS VARY WITH WHICH ONE HAS THE
MOST PUNCH. IF SOUTHERN WAVE IS STRONGER AS SHOWN BY ECMWF AND GEM
THEN STRONGEST MOISTURE INFLOW WOULD SETUP TO THE SOUTH OF UPR
MICHIGAN. IF NORTHERN WAVE IS STRONGER AS SHOWN BY GFS AND NAM THERE
IS A BETTER SHOT OF MORE LOW-LEVEL TEMP/MOISURE ADVECTION MAKING IT
INTO UPR MICHIGAN. ALL AREAS WILL SEE LGT SNOW DUE TO BROAD H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND PVA FM BOTH SHORTWAVES. THERE IS ALSO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH AT LEAST
2G/KG AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM WITH EITHER SCENARIO...MORE THOUGH IF
NORTHERN WAVE IS STRONGER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOT OF MID
LEVEL LIFT WITH PORTION OF UVM/MOISTURE IN THE DGZ. THIS IS LOOKING
LIKE A SOLID HIGHER-END ADVY FOR MUCH OF WEST AND CNTRL CWA. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS PROBABLY END UP OVER WESTERN CWA AND ALONG WI
BORDER...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING. MORE
SNOW WITH THIS MONDAY SYSTEM THOUGH. THOUGHT ABOUT A WATCH AS
MAJORITY OF SREF MEMBERS FOR KIMT ARE IN THE 5-7 INCH RANGE...BUT
THIS OUTPUT IS BIASED BY STRONGER NORTH/WETTER NAM IDEA AS MANY
HIGHER RES MEMBERS IN SREF ARE BASED OFF THE NAM CAMP. NO WATCH FOR
NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO/EHWO. IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE HIGHER AS IT FALLS ON A WEEKDAY.
GFS APPEARS TOO QUICK IN DEPARTING THE SYSTEM MONDAY EVENING...SO
HELD WITH SLOWER IDEA FROM ECMWF/GEM-NH FOR POPS. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SNOW WILL BE OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA THOUGH. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
FEW INCHES IN THE EVENING FOR THE EASTERN AND FAR SCNTRL CWA. EASY
TO SEE IF THE SYSTEM DOES TREND SLOWER...MAY SEE ISOLD SNOW AMOUNTS
OVER 6"/12HR...EXCEEDING OUR WARNING CRITERIA. NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THOUGH IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS TO GIVE
50 PCT CONFIDENCE OF THAT OCCURRING...SO THIS WAS ANOTHER REASON TO
NOT ISSUE A WATCH.
STARTING TO LOOK LIKE TUESDAY MAY END UP THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
COULD THIS BE THE DAY WE END OUR RECORD RUN OF SUB FREEZING DAYS? WE
WILL SEE. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS IN WESTERLY FLOW AND
SFC LOW SHOULD FORM UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS PLACES UPR
MICHIGAN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. MODELS HINTING THAT
THERE MAY BE LGT QPF OVER NORTHERN TIER ALONG BRIEFLY RETREATING H85
FRONT. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THIS. WELL THEY ARE SHOWING IT FOR AT
LEAST ONE RUN ANYWAY. PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN OVER THE NORTH.
WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN...TEMPS COULD
EASILY PUSH PAST THAT ELUSIVE FREEZING MARK AS 925-900MB TEMPS SURGE
UP TO AROUND 0C IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT SPREAD WITH SOME MOS GUIDANCE PUSHING MAX
TEMPS INTO LOWER 40S OVER WESTERN CWA. IF SKIES COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT
WOULD NOT RULE THAT OUT AT ALL. FOR NOW...PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE
GIVEN OUR PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUDS. EVEN SO RAISED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S...COLDEST
EAST AND WARMEST FAR WEST.
APPEARS QUIET BUT A BIT COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AS WEAK TROUGH CROSSES
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WITH READINGS IN THE 30S
AGAIN...THIS TIME COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE
ICE COVER. AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE SEEMS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS WE
ARE AHEAD OF PRIMARY TROUGH THAT MOVES IN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SAME ISSUE OF SPLIT SHORTWAVES THAT AFFECTS THE MONDAY FORECAST POPS
UP AGAIN FOR THE THURSDAY FORECAST. MODELS ARE JUMPING AROUND IN HOW
MUCH PHASING CAN OCCUR AND/OR WHICH WAVE IS THE DOMINANT ONE. LAST
COUPLE RUNS OF ECMWF AND GFS SEEMED TO BE TRENDING DRIER...BUT 00Z
RUN IS BACK TO WETTER IDEA. AT THIS POINT...HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT
CONSENSUS OF MODELS OFFERED UP LOOK FINE. WAVE IS STILL NORTH OF THE
ALLUTIAN ISLANDS SO WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE MODELS GET LOCKED IN.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT REALLY ANY OF THE POSSIBILITIES SHOWN IN TERMS OF
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND THERMAL FIELDS SO FAR FM THE MODELS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT...USED BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH YIELDED LIMITED CHANCES OF RAIN AND MAINLY A SNOW EVENT FOR
MUCH OF CWA...EVEN AS SFC TEMPS ON THURSDAY RISE AGAIN INTO THE 30S.
BASED ON 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES OVER LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS IT SEEMS THAT LESS OF A RAIN IDEA IS SHOWING UP...BUT AGAIN
THIS COULD CHANGE ONCE RAOBS BETTER SAMPLE THIS DISTURBANCE EARLY
THIS WEEK.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SW-NE MOVING SHORTWAVES/SFC WAVES IMPACTING GREAT
LAKES ON FRONT EDGE OF DEVELOPING LARGER SCALE TROUGH. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK GOOD GIVEN THIS PATTERN WITH
PTYPE BACK TO MOSTLY SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
MVFR CIGS AT SAW AND IWD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE
WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION AND GREATER LOW LEVEL MIXING. SOME WAA LIGHT SNOW COULD REACH
INTO KIWD LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES IN
THE MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY DROPPING TO IFR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
OVERALL...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING OVER EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR...BUT GALES ARE
NOT EXPECTED AS MAIN SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER CNTRL AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY TREND STRONGER LATE THIS WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. WITH THE LAKE ALMOST COMPLETELY
ICE COVERED...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
102 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING LEADING TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A COUPLE TO PERHAPS A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MAINLY DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LIKELY FOLLOWED BY SOME RAIN OR SNOW ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
HYBRID LAKE/DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED STCU AND FLURRIES CONTINUE
ACROSS NE AND NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS HOUR...EVEN
FLAT OUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN SOME SPOTS WITH REDUCED VSBYS. HAVE
HAD TO STRETCH OUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT. MORE NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING...WITH LITTLE OR ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1100 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
SHORT WAVE AXIS NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING/FILLING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO. LAST BIT
OF SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WHILE
COLDER/VERY DRY AIRMASS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SPREADING DOWN INTO
NRN MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH/WEST. QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE CWA BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE TO START THE DAY. HOWEVER...NNE
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON (JUST ENOUGH OPEN WATER) HAS/IS BRINGING A
QUICK FLARE UP OF HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED STCU OVER NE LOWER
MICHIGAN AND SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PER RADAR AND SFC
OBS. HAVE TWEAKED WEATHER FORECAST TO ADD SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
ADJUST SKY FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. INCOMING DRY AIRMASS WILL
ULTIMATELY WIN OVER...BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
FORECAST GOING TO PLAN. DEEPER MOISTURE PULLED OUT OF NW
LOWER/EASTERN UPPER/..AND WILL OVER NE LOWER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THIS WILL END THE BETTER SNOWS...WITH EVEN LIGHTER SNOWS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUING FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD ALONG WITH
CLOUDY SKIES. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
...SUNSHINE FOR MANY BEHIND DEPARTING LIGHT SNOW...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
CURRENT WEATHER/SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING IS NOW WORKING
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. RUC ANALYSIS SEEMINGLY TOO STRONG WITH
OVERALL DEEP LAYER FORCING WHICH IS NOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...BASED ON
WEAKNESS OF OVERALL RADAR RETURNS. GRANTED...THE ACTIVITY HAS PICKED
UP JUST A LITTLE BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS GTV
BAY...WHERE THE BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK
SFC LOW (CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN) RESIDE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
VERY WEAK IN LAX PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS...LIGHT/VERY LIGHT
SNOWS. BACK EDGE OF THE ENHANCED DEEPER MOISTURE PER LATEST
SATELLITE DATA...ALREADY OUT OF EASTERN UPPER WITH LAST VESTIGES OF
3-5SM SNOWS NOW ENDING IN WESTERN CHIP/MAC COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. UPSTREAM...IN A SEEMINGLY UNFATHOMABLE CHANGE OF
WEATHER PATTERN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. YES. YES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...AND WARMTH...WAS IMPRESSIVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
WESTERN DAKOTAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE RETURN SRLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN MN...WAS RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. CONVERSELY...ON THE LIGHT WIND
FORWARD FLANK/LIGHT WIND SIDE..WERE TEMPERATURES IN THE 0 TO -10F
BELOW ZERO RANGE....AND AREAS OF STRATUS.
PATTERN EVOLUTION/WEATHER EXPECTATIONS: UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE/WAA/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND
EXITS THE REGION WITH DISSOLVING SFC LOW/ABSORPTION INTO DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. LIGHT/VERY LIGHT SNOWS WILL BE ENDING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE MORNING...OUT OF THE CWA AND INTO SAG BAY
AROUND ROUGHLY 16Z. IT IT`S WAKE...AGAIN...HINTS OF TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION WITH
LOADS OF DRY AIR ALOFT. GOTTA BELIEVE THAT WHATEVER SHALLOW CU CAN
FIRE OFF WITH SUNUP...WILL QUICKLY ERODE...IF IT FORMS AT ALL. THIS
WILL LEAVE NRN MICHIGAN IN A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AGAIN FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE AFTERNOON (LEAST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN THE SE CWA).
THESE CLEAR/CLEARING SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE EVENING
WITH DEEP/DRY ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 650MB/700MB. OF
COURSE CANNOT RULE OUT ANY PATCHY STRATUS...BUT IT LOOKS MORE CLEAR
THAN ANYTHING. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES IN WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW DROP RATHER EFFICIENTLY THROUGH THE EVENING...GETTING A GOOD
HEAD START. NEGATIVELY TILTING...MUCH TALKED ABOUT NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL BE RACING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG WARM FRONT WITH IMPRESSIVE 285-290K ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/NET ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING
AND DEVELOPING N-S ORIENTED SWATH OF SNOW MIXED WITH SOME SLEET.
CLOUDS ALOFT THICKEN OVERNIGHT...AND SLOW/STOP THE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. CAN SEE SOME -5 TO -15F READING FOR LOWS ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE CLEAR SKIES LAST LONGER...BUT
MAYBE JUST A TAD WARMER THAN THAT CONSIDERING THE CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
CHALLENGING FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH IS NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WHEN THE
PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW PROCESS OF WARMING UP USUALLY COMMENCES. THE
FIRST SYSTEM OF INTEREST MONDAY...IS LOOKING WAY WEAKER...NOW AN
OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE. MILDER TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND SYSTEM ON THURSDAY IS
TRENDING A BIT COOLER/LESS AMPLIFIED INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OVER
PRECIPITATION TYPE. COLDER AIR THEN LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HOW MUCH IT WILL WARM UP TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE ON THURSDAY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EXTENDED MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A MUCH
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY
MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT (THOUGH THE OUTLYING ECMWF REMAINS MUCH
DEEPER). THIS SPELLS LOWER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF
TWO TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST (MID TO LATE MORNING) TO EAST (SHORTLY
AFTER NOON) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST. LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A TEMPORARY SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN WITH MILDER AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT FOR THE MOST PART LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER...THOUGH
TROUGHS MOVING BY TO THE NORTH MAY COMPROMISE THE DRY PART OF THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS). HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVIDENCES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT TRACKS BY
TO OUR NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATEST TRENDS ARE HEDGING
TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED/LESS WARM SYSTEM...WITH A POSSIBLE SECONDARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH CUTTING OFF THE INFLOW
OF WARMER AIR. THIS OBVIOUSLY CASTS LOTS OF DOUBT ABOUT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST GENERAL WITH
RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND RAIN LIKELY SOUTH THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY IS
NOW EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH.
A PACIFIC RIDGE THEN BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STRENGTHENS NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING/COLD AIR
RETURNING TO THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FRIDAY
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT INCOMING
DRY/COLDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON GOING CALM THIS EVENING.
MONDAY STARTS OUT WITH SE WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BA
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1101 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING LEADING TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A COUPLE TO PERHAPS A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MAINLY DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LIKELY FOLLOWED BY SOME RAIN OR SNOW ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
SHORT WAVE AXIS NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING/FILLING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO. LAST BIT
OF SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WHILE
COLDER/VERY DRY AIRMASS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SPREADING DOWN INTO
NRN MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH/WEST. QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE CWA BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE TO START THE DAY. HOWEVER...NNE
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON (JUST ENOUGH OPEN WATER) HAS/IS BRINGING A
QUICK FLARE UP OF HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED STCU OVER NE LOWER
MICHIGAN AND SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PER RADAR AND SFC
OBS. HAVE TWEAKED WEATHER FORECAST TO ADD SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
ADJUST SKY FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. INCOMING DRY AIRMASS WILL
ULTIMATELY WIN OVER...BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
FORECAST GOING TO PLAN. DEEPER MOISTURE PULLED OUT OF NW
LOWER/EASTERN UPPER/..AND WILL OVER NE LOWER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THIS WILL END THE BETTER SNOWS...WITH EVEN LIGHTER SNOWS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUING FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD ALONG WITH
CLOUDY SKIES. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
...SUNSHINE FOR MANY BEHIND DEPARTING LIGHT SNOW...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
CURRENT WEATHER/SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING IS NOW WORKING
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. RUC ANALYSIS SEEMINGLY TOO STRONG WITH
OVERALL DEEP LAYER FORCING WHICH IS NOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...BASED ON
WEAKNESS OF OVERALL RADAR RETURNS. GRANTED...THE ACTIVITY HAS PICKED
UP JUST A LITTLE BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS GTV
BAY...WHERE THE BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK
SFC LOW (CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN) RESIDE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
VERY WEAK IN LAX PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS...LIGHT/VERY LIGHT
SNOWS. BACK EDGE OF THE ENHANCED DEEPER MOISTURE PER LATEST
SATELLITE DATA...ALREADY OUT OF EASTERN UPPER WITH LAST VESTIGES OF
3-5SM SNOWS NOW ENDING IN WESTERN CHIP/MAC COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. UPSTREAM...IN A SEEMINGLY UNFATHOMABLE CHANGE OF
WEATHER PATTERN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. YES. YES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...AND WARMTH...WAS IMPRESSIVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
WESTERN DAKOTAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE RETURN SRLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN MN...WAS RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. CONVERSELY...ON THE LIGHT WIND
FORWARD FLANK/LIGHT WIND SIDE..WERE TEMPERATURES IN THE 0 TO -10F
BELOW ZERO RANGE....AND AREAS OF STRATUS.
PATTERN EVOLUTION/WEATHER EXPECTATIONS: UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE/WAA/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND
EXITS THE REGION WITH DISSOLVING SFC LOW/ABSORPTION INTO DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. LIGHT/VERY LIGHT SNOWS WILL BE ENDING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE MORNING...OUT OF THE CWA AND INTO SAG BAY
AROUND ROUGHLY 16Z. IT IT`S WAKE...AGAIN...HINTS OF TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION WITH
LOADS OF DRY AIR ALOFT. GOTTA BELIEVE THAT WHATEVER SHALLOW CU CAN
FIRE OFF WITH SUNUP...WILL QUICKLY ERODE...IF IT FORMS AT ALL. THIS
WILL LEAVE NRN MICHIGAN IN A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AGAIN FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE AFTERNOON (LEAST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN THE SE CWA).
THESE CLEAR/CLEARING SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE EVENING
WITH DEEP/DRY ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 650MB/700MB. OF
COURSE CANNOT RULE OUT ANY PATCHY STRATUS...BUT IT LOOKS MORE CLEAR
THAN ANYTHING. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES IN WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW DROP RATHER EFFICIENTLY THROUGH THE EVENING...GETTING A GOOD
HEAD START. NEGATIVELY TILTING...MUCH TALKED ABOUT NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL BE RACING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG WARM FRONT WITH IMPRESSIVE 285-290K ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/NET ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING
AND DEVELOPING N-S ORIENTED SWATH OF SNOW MIXED WITH SOME SLEET.
CLOUDS ALOFT THICKEN OVERNIGHT...AND SLOW/STOP THE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. CAN SEE SOME -5 TO -15F READING FOR LOWS ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE CLEAR SKIES LAST LONGER...BUT
MAYBE JUST A TAD WARMER THAN THAT CONSIDERING THE CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
CHALLENGING FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH IS NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WHEN THE
PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW PROCESS OF WARMING UP USUALLY COMMENCES. THE
FIRST SYSTEM OF INTEREST MONDAY...IS LOOKING WAY WEAKER...NOW AN
OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE. MILDER TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND SYSTEM ON THURSDAY IS
TRENDING A BIT COOLER/LESS AMPLIFIED INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OVER
PRECIPITATION TYPE. COLDER AIR THEN LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HOW MUCH IT WILL WARM UP TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE ON THURSDAY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EXTENDED MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A MUCH
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY
MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT (THOUGH THE OUTLYING ECMWF REMAINS MUCH
DEEPER). THIS SPELLS LOWER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF
TWO TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST (MID TO LATE MORNING) TO EAST (SHORTLY
AFTER NOON) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST. LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A TEMPORARY SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN WITH MILDER AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT FOR THE MOST PART LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER...THOUGH
TROUGHS MOVING BY TO THE NORTH MAY COMPROMISE THE DRY PART OF THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS). HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVIDENCES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT TRACKS BY
TO OUR NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATEST TRENDS ARE HEDGING
TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED/LESS WARM SYSTEM...WITH A POSSIBLE SECONDARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH CUTTING OFF THE INFLOW
OF WARMER AIR. THIS OBVIOUSLY CASTS LOTS OF DOUBT ABOUT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST GENERAL WITH
RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND RAIN LIKELY SOUTH THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY IS
NOW EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH.
A PACIFIC RIDGE THEN BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STRENGTHENS NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING/COLD AIR
RETURNING TO THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FRIDAY
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS OF LIGHT SNOW AND CIGS IMPROVING THIS MORNING.
CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR AT PLN AND BACK WEST AND NORTH OF THERE.
DAYTIME MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MID DAY ALL TAF SITES. BELIEVE SKIES
WILL SCATTERED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL THICKEN
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BA
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...SD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
647 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE EXITING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FCST AREA. LINGERING MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A NNE FLOW OF -18C 8H TEMPS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR IS STILL SUPPORTING SOME LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW/FLURRIES OVER
THE MAINLY THE SE CWA AND ALSO SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO
NCNTRL PORTIONS OF UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...MID-LVL RDGG AND Q-VECT DIV AND
ASSOC MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE AS NOTED ON FCST SNDGS SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID
DIMINISHMENT OF ANY REMAINING LES OVER NCNTRL COUNTIES BY LATE
MORNING. UNTIL THEN...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR LIGHT
LES/FLURRIES. CONTINUED NNE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MAY ALLOW
SOME LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR NCNTRL COUNTIES
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE THRU AFTERNOON
HRS. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO BETTER PERFORMING REGIONAL GEM GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH HIGHS AROUND 10F NORTH TO NEAR 20F SW ALONG THE WI
BORDER.
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT. GFS IS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN REST OF MODELS WITH ONSET
OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING OF COLUMN FOR PCPN. GFS
APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT SO WILL SIDE MORE WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND OF ECMWF/REGIONAL GEM/NAM AND UKMET AND CARRY
POPS FOR MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH LIKELY POPS OF 60 PCT
NEAR KIWD BY 12Z MON. CONSENSUS QPF OF AROUND .07 INCH BETWEEN
06-12Z ALONG WITH EXPECTED SLR NEAR 17/1 SHOULD YIELD AROUND ONE
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT FOR KIWD AREA. MIN TEMPS IN
SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE EVENING OVER
THE WRN CWA AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR RISE LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASED
MIXING FROM TIGHTENING SRLY GRAD AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND
INCREASING WAA CLOUDS. LONGER PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER EAST HALF WHERE
BLO ZERO TEMPS AREA EXPECTED. A FEW OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD RAWS
SITES OVER ERN CWA COULD SEE MIN TEMPS OF -10F OR COLDER. AGAIN
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO BETTER PERFORMING CANADIAN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THIS WEEK AS TROUGHING THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE OVER GREAT LAKES FOR QUITE SOME TIME TAKES A BREAK.
TWO LARGER SCALE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND
AGAIN WEDNESDY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS LOOK TO COME THROUGH IN SPLIT FASHION...RESULTING IN THE
MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY IN RUN TO RUN PREDICTABILITY. AT THIS POINT
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD SNOW IS ON MONDAY. WETTER SYSTEM
FOR LATE THE WEEK NOT AS CLEAR CUT DUE TO THE SPLIT NATURE OF
SHORTWAVES AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FCST TO IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. SEEMS THAT THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD HOLDS
BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPS REACHING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE EARLY DECEMBER AT WFO MARQUETTE.
MONDAY...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIDES
EAST ACROSS CNTRL CONUS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...BUT SPLITS INTO TWO
PIECES OF ENERGY WHILE DOING SO. SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE FCST TO MISS UPR
MICHIGAN INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES. MODELS VARY WITH WHICH ONE HAS THE
MOST PUNCH. IF SOUTHERN WAVE IS STRONGER AS SHOWN BY ECMWF AND GEM
THEN STRONGEST MOISTURE INFLOW WOULD SETUP TO THE SOUTH OF UPR
MICHIGAN. IF NORTHERN WAVE IS STRONGER AS SHOWN BY GFS AND NAM THERE
IS A BETTER SHOT OF MORE LOW-LEVEL TEMP/MOISURE ADVECTION MAKING IT
INTO UPR MICHIGAN. ALL AREAS WILL SEE LGT SNOW DUE TO BROAD H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND PVA FM BOTH SHORTWAVES. THERE IS ALSO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH AT LEAST
2G/KG AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM WITH EITHER SCENARIO...MORE THOUGH IF
NORTHERN WAVE IS STRONGER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOT OF MID
LEVEL LIFT WITH PORTION OF UVM/MOISTURE IN THE DGZ. THIS IS LOOKING
LIKE A SOLID HIGHER-END ADVY FOR MUCH OF WEST AND CNTRL CWA. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS PROBABLY END UP OVER WESTERN CWA AND ALONG WI
BORDER...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING. MORE
SNOW WITH THIS MONDAY SYSTEM THOUGH. THOUGHT ABOUT A WATCH AS
MAJORITY OF SREF MEMBERS FOR KIMT ARE IN THE 5-7 INCH RANGE...BUT
THIS OUTPUT IS BIASED BY STRONGER NORTH/WETTER NAM IDEA AS MANY
HIGHER RES MEMBERS IN SREF ARE BASED OFF THE NAM CAMP. NO WATCH FOR
NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO/EHWO. IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE HIGHER AS IT FALLS ON A WEEKDAY.
GFS APPEARS TOO QUICK IN DEPARTING THE SYSTEM MONDAY EVENING...SO
HELD WITH SLOWER IDEA FROM ECMWF/GEM-NH FOR POPS. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SNOW WILL BE OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA THOUGH. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
FEW INCHES IN THE EVENING FOR THE EASTERN AND FAR SCNTRL CWA. EASY
TO SEE IF THE SYSTEM DOES TREND SLOWER...MAY SEE ISOLD SNOW AMOUNTS
OVER 6"/12HR...EXCEEDING OUR WARNING CRITERIA. NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THOUGH IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS TO GIVE
50 PCT CONFIDENCE OF THAT OCCURRING...SO THIS WAS ANOTHER REASON TO
NOT ISSUE A WATCH.
STARTING TO LOOK LIKE TUESDAY MAY END UP THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
COULD THIS BE THE DAY WE END OUR RECORD RUN OF SUB FREEZING DAYS? WE
WILL SEE. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS IN WESTERLY FLOW AND
SFC LOW SHOULD FORM UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS PLACES UPR
MICHIGAN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. MODELS HINTING THAT
THERE MAY BE LGT QPF OVER NORTHERN TIER ALONG BRIEFLY RETREATING H85
FRONT. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THIS. WELL THEY ARE SHOWING IT FOR AT
LEAST ONE RUN ANYWAY. PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN OVER THE NORTH.
WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN...TEMPS COULD
EASILY PUSH PAST THAT ELUSIVE FREEZING MARK AS 925-900MB TEMPS SURGE
UP TO AROUND 0C IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT SPREAD WITH SOME MOS GUIDANCE PUSHING MAX
TEMPS INTO LOWER 40S OVER WESTERN CWA. IF SKIES COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT
WOULD NOT RULE THAT OUT AT ALL. FOR NOW...PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE
GIVEN OUR PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUDS. EVEN SO RAISED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S...COLDEST
EAST AND WARMEST FAR WEST.
APPEARS QUIET BUT A BIT COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AS WEAK TROUGH CROSSES
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WITH READINGS IN THE 30S
AGAIN...THIS TIME COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE
ICE COVER. AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE SEEMS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS WE
ARE AHEAD OF PRIMARY TROUGH THAT MOVES IN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SAME ISSUE OF SPLIT SHORTWAVES THAT AFFECTS THE MONDAY FORECAST POPS
UP AGAIN FOR THE THURSDAY FORECAST. MODELS ARE JUMPING AROUND IN HOW
MUCH PHASING CAN OCCUR AND/OR WHICH WAVE IS THE DOMINANT ONE. LAST
COUPLE RUNS OF ECMWF AND GFS SEEMED TO BE TRENDING DRIER...BUT 00Z
RUN IS BACK TO WETTER IDEA. AT THIS POINT...HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT
CONSENSUS OF MODELS OFFERED UP LOOK FINE. WAVE IS STILL NORTH OF THE
ALLUTIAN ISLANDS SO WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE MODELS GET LOCKED IN.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT REALLY ANY OF THE POSSIBILITIES SHOWN IN TERMS OF
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND THERMAL FIELDS SO FAR FM THE MODELS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT...USED BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH YIELDED LIMITED CHANCES OF RAIN AND MAINLY A SNOW EVENT FOR
MUCH OF CWA...EVEN AS SFC TEMPS ON THURSDAY RISE AGAIN INTO THE 30S.
BASED ON 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES OVER LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS IT SEEMS THAT LESS OF A RAIN IDEA IS SHOWING UP...BUT AGAIN
THIS COULD CHANGE ONCE RAOBS BETTER SAMPLE THIS DISTURBANCE EARLY
THIS WEEK.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SW-NE MOVING SHORTWAVES/SFC WAVES IMPACTING GREAT
LAKES ON FRONT EDGE OF DEVELOPING LARGER SCALE TROUGH. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK GOOD GIVEN THIS PATTERN WITH
PTYPE BACK TO MOSTLY SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...NNE FLOW OF COLDER TEMPS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW/LAKE
CLOUDS AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN VFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME WAA LIGHT SNOW COULD REACH INTO KIWD LATE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
OVERALL...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING OVER EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR...BUT GALES ARE
NOT EXPECTED AS MAIN SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER CNTRL AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY TREND STRONGER LATE THIS WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. WITH THE LAKE ALMOST COMPLETELY
ICE COVERED...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
640 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING LEADING TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A COUPLE TO PERHAPS A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MAINLY DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LIKELY FOLLOWED BY SOME RAIN OR SNOW ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
FORECAST GOING TO PLAN. DEEPER MOISTURE PULLED OUT OF NW
LOWER/EASTERN UPPER/..AND WILL OVER NE LOWER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THIS WILL END THE BETTER SNOWS...WITH EVEN LIGHTER SNOWS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUING FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD ALONG WITH
CLOUDY SKIES. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
...SUNSHINE FOR MANY BEHIND DEPARTING LIGHT SNOW...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
CURRENT WEATHER/SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING IS NOW WORKING
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. RUC ANALYSIS SEEMINGLY TOO STRONG WITH
OVERALL DEEP LAYER FORCING WHICH IS NOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...BASED ON
WEAKNESS OF OVERALL RADAR RETURNS. GRANTED...THE ACTIVITY HAS PICKED
UP JUST A LITTLE BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS GTV
BAY...WHERE THE BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK
SFC LOW (CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN) RESIDE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
VERY WEAK IN LAX PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS...LIGHT/VERY LIGHT
SNOWS. BACK EDGE OF THE ENHANCED DEEPER MOISTURE PER LATEST
SATELLITE DATA...ALREADY OUT OF EASTERN UPPER WITH LAST VESTIGES OF
3-5SM SNOWS NOW ENDING IN WESTERN CHIP/MAC COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. UPSTREAM...IN A SEEMINGLY UNFATHOMABLE CHANGE OF
WEATHER PATTERN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. YES. YES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...AND WARMTH...WAS IMPRESSIVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
WESTERN DAKOTAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE RETURN SRLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN MN...WAS RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. CONVERSELY...ON THE LIGHT WIND
FORWARD FLANK/LIGHT WIND SIDE..WERE TEMPERATURES IN THE 0 TO -10F
BELOW ZERO RANGE....AND AREAS OF STRATUS.
PATTERN EVOLUTION/WEATHER EXPECTATIONS: UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE/WAA/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND
EXITS THE REGION WITH DISSOLVING SFC LOW/ABSORPTION INTO DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. LIGHT/VERY LIGHT SNOWS WILL BE ENDING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE MORNING...OUT OF THE CWA AND INTO SAG BAY
AROUND ROUGHLY 16Z. IT IT`S WAKE...AGAIN...HINTS OF TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION WITH
LOADS OF DRY AIR ALOFT. GOTTA BELIEVE THAT WHATEVER SHALLOW CU CAN
FIRE OFF WITH SUNUP...WILL QUICKLY ERODE...IF IT FORMS AT ALL. THIS
WILL LEAVE NRN MICHIGAN IN A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AGAIN FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE AFTERNOON (LEAST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN THE SE CWA).
THESE CLEAR/CLEARING SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE EVENING
WITH DEEP/DRY ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 650MB/700MB. OF
COURSE CANNOT RULE OUT ANY PATCHY STRATUS...BUT IT LOOKS MORE CLEAR
THAN ANYTHING. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES IN WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW DROP RATHER EFFICIENTLY THROUGH THE EVENING...GETTING A GOOD
HEAD START. NEGATIVELY TILTING...MUCH TALKED ABOUT NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL BE RACING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG WARM FRONT WITH IMPRESSIVE 285-290K ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/NET ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING
AND DEVELOPING N-S ORIENTED SWATH OF SNOW MIXED WITH SOME SLEET.
CLOUDS ALOFT THICKEN OVERNIGHT...AND SLOW/STOP THE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. CAN SEE SOME -5 TO -15F READING FOR LOWS ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE CLEAR SKIES LAST LONGER...BUT
MAYBE JUST A TAD WARMER THAN THAT CONSIDERING THE CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
CHALLENGING FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH IS NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WHEN THE
PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW PROCESS OF WARMING UP USUALLY COMMENCES. THE
FIRST SYSTEM OF INTEREST MONDAY...IS LOOKING WAY WEAKER...NOW AN
OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE. MILDER TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND SYSTEM ON THURSDAY IS
TRENDING A BIT COOLER/LESS AMPLIFIED INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OVER
PRECIPITATION TYPE. COLDER AIR THEN LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HOW MUCH IT WILL WARM UP TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE ON THURSDAY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EXTENDED MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A MUCH
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY
MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT (THOUGH THE OUTLYING ECMWF REMAINS MUCH
DEEPER). THIS SPELLS LOWER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF
TWO TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST (MID TO LATE MORNING) TO EAST (SHORTLY
AFTER NOON) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST. LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A TEMPORARY SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN WITH MILDER AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT FOR THE MOST PART LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER...THOUGH
TROUGHS MOVING BY TO THE NORTH MAY COMPROMISE THE DRY PART OF THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS). HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVIDENCES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT TRACKS BY
TO OUR NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATEST TRENDS ARE HEDGING
TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED/LESS WARM SYSTEM...WITH A POSSIBLE SECONDARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH CUTTING OFF THE INFLOW
OF WARMER AIR. THIS OBVIOUSLY CASTS LOTS OF DOUBT ABOUT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST GENERAL WITH
RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND RAIN LIKELY SOUTH THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY IS
NOW EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH.
A PACIFIC RIDGE THEN BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STRENGTHENS NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING/COLD AIR
RETURNING TO THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FRIDAY
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS OF LIGHT SNOW AND CIGS IMPROVING THIS MORNING.
CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR AT PLN AND BACK WEST AND NORTH OF THERE.
DAYTIME MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MID DAY ALL TAF SITES. BELIEVE SKIES
WILL SCATTERED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL THICKEN
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SD
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...SD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
455 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE EXITING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FCST AREA. LINGERING MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A NNE FLOW OF -18C 8H TEMPS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR IS STILL SUPPORTING SOME LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW/FLURRIES OVER
THE MAINLY THE SE CWA AND ALSO SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO
NCNTRL PORTIONS OF UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...MID-LVL RDGG AND Q-VECT DIV AND
ASSOC MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE AS NOTED ON FCST SNDGS SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID
DIMINISHMENT OF ANY REMAINING LES OVER NCNTRL COUNTIES BY LATE
MORNING. UNTIL THEN...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR LIGHT
LES/FLURRIES. CONTINUED NNE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MAY ALLOW
SOME LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR NCNTRL COUNTIES
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE THRU AFTERNOON
HRS. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO BETTER PERFORMING REGIONAL GEM GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH HIGHS AROUND 10F NORTH TO NEAR 20F SW ALONG THE WI
BORDER.
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT. GFS IS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN REST OF MODELS WITH ONSET
OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING OF COLUMN FOR PCPN. GFS
APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT SO WILL SIDE MORE WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND OF ECMWF/REGIONAL GEM/NAM AND UKMET AND CARRY
POPS FOR MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH LIKELY POPS OF 60 PCT
NEAR KIWD BY 12Z MON. CONSENSUS QPF OF AROUND .07 INCH BETWEEN
06-12Z ALONG WITH EXPECTED SLR NEAR 17/1 SHOULD YIELD AROUND ONE
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT FOR KIWD AREA. MIN TEMPS IN
SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE EVENING OVER
THE WRN CWA AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR RISE LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASED
MIXING FROM TIGHTENING SRLY GRAD AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND
INCREASING WAA CLOUDS. LONGER PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER EAST HALF WHERE
BLO ZERO TEMPS AREA EXPECTED. A FEW OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD RAWS
SITES OVER ERN CWA COULD SEE MIN TEMPS OF -10F OR COLDER. AGAIN
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO BETTER PERFORMING CANADIAN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THIS WEEK AS TROUGHING THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE OVER GREAT LAKES FOR QUITE SOME TIME TAKES A BREAK.
TWO LARGER SCALE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND
AGAIN WEDNESDY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS LOOK TO COME THROUGH IN SPLIT FASHION...RESULTING IN THE
MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY IN RUN TO RUN PREDICTABILITY. AT THIS POINT
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD SNOW IS ON MONDAY. WETTER SYSTEM
FOR LATE THE WEEK NOT AS CLEAR CUT DUE TO THE SPLIT NATURE OF
SHORTWAVES AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FCST TO IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. SEEMS THAT THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD HOLDS
BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPS REACHING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE EARLY DECEMBER AT WFO MARQUETTE.
MONDAY...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIDES
EAST ACROSS CNTRL CONUS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...BUT SPLITS INTO TWO
PIECES OF ENERGY WHILE DOING SO. SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE FCST TO MISS UPR
MICHIGAN INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES. MODELS VARY WITH WHICH ONE HAS THE
MOST PUNCH. IF SOUTHERN WAVE IS STRONGER AS SHOWN BY ECMWF AND GEM
THEN STRONGEST MOISTURE INFLOW WOULD SETUP TO THE SOUTH OF UPR
MICHIGAN. IF NORTHERN WAVE IS STRONGER AS SHOWN BY GFS AND NAM THERE
IS A BETTER SHOT OF MORE LOW-LEVEL TEMP/MOISURE ADVECTION MAKING IT
INTO UPR MICHIGAN. ALL AREAS WILL SEE LGT SNOW DUE TO BROAD H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND PVA FM BOTH SHORTWAVES. THERE IS ALSO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH AT LEAST
2G/KG AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM WITH EITHER SCENARIO...MORE THOUGH IF
NORTHERN WAVE IS STRONGER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOT OF MID
LEVEL LIFT WITH PORTION OF UVM/MOISTURE IN THE DGZ. THIS IS LOOKING
LIKE A SOLID HIGHER-END ADVY FOR MUCH OF WEST AND CNTRL CWA. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS PROBABLY END UP OVER WESTERN CWA AND ALONG WI
BORDER...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING. MORE
SNOW WITH THIS MONDAY SYSTEM THOUGH. THOUGHT ABOUT A WATCH AS
MAJORITY OF SREF MEMBERS FOR KIMT ARE IN THE 5-7 INCH RANGE...BUT
THIS OUTPUT IS BIASED BY STRONGER NORTH/WETTER NAM IDEA AS MANY
HIGHER RES MEMBERS IN SREF ARE BASED OFF THE NAM CAMP. NO WATCH FOR
NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO/EHWO. IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE HIGHER AS IT FALLS ON A WEEKDAY.
GFS APPEARS TOO QUICK IN DEPARTING THE SYSTEM MONDAY EVENING...SO
HELD WITH SLOWER IDEA FROM ECMWF/GEM-NH FOR POPS. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SNOW WILL BE OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA THOUGH. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
FEW INCHES IN THE EVENING FOR THE EASTERN AND FAR SCNTRL CWA. EASY
TO SEE IF THE SYSTEM DOES TREND SLOWER...MAY SEE ISOLD SNOW AMOUNTS
OVER 6"/12HR...EXCEEDING OUR WARNING CRITERIA. NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THOUGH IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS TO GIVE
50 PCT CONFIDENCE OF THAT OCCURRING...SO THIS WAS ANOTHER REASON TO
NOT ISSUE A WATCH.
STARTING TO LOOK LIKE TUESDAY MAY END UP THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
COULD THIS BE THE DAY WE END OUR RECORD RUN OF SUB FREEZING DAYS? WE
WILL SEE. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS IN WESTERLY FLOW AND
SFC LOW SHOULD FORM UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS PLACES UPR
MICHIGAN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. MODELS HINTING THAT
THERE MAY BE LGT QPF OVER NORTHERN TIER ALONG BRIEFLY RETREATING H85
FRONT. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THIS. WELL THEY ARE SHOWING IT FOR AT
LEAST ONE RUN ANYWAY. PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN OVER THE NORTH.
WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN...TEMPS COULD
EASILY PUSH PAST THAT ELUSIVE FREEZING MARK AS 925-900MB TEMPS SURGE
UP TO AROUND 0C IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT SPREAD WITH SOME MOS GUIDANCE PUSHING MAX
TEMPS INTO LOWER 40S OVER WESTERN CWA. IF SKIES COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT
WOULD NOT RULE THAT OUT AT ALL. FOR NOW...PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE
GIVEN OUR PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUDS. EVEN SO RAISED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S...COLDEST
EAST AND WARMEST FAR WEST.
APPEARS QUIET BUT A BIT COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AS WEAK TROUGH CROSSES
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WITH READINGS IN THE 30S
AGAIN...THIS TIME COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE
ICE COVER. AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE SEEMS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS WE
ARE AHEAD OF PRIMARY TROUGH THAT MOVES IN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SAME ISSUE OF SPLIT SHORTWAVES THAT AFFECTS THE MONDAY FORECAST POPS
UP AGAIN FOR THE THURSDAY FORECAST. MODELS ARE JUMPING AROUND IN HOW
MUCH PHASING CAN OCCUR AND/OR WHICH WAVE IS THE DOMINANT ONE. LAST
COUPLE RUNS OF ECMWF AND GFS SEEMED TO BE TRENDING DRIER...BUT 00Z
RUN IS BACK TO WETTER IDEA. AT THIS POINT...HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT
CONSENSUS OF MODELS OFFERED UP LOOK FINE. WAVE IS STILL NORTH OF THE
ALLUTIAN ISLANDS SO WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE MODELS GET LOCKED IN.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT REALLY ANY OF THE POSSIBILITIES SHOWN IN TERMS OF
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND THERMAL FIELDS SO FAR FM THE MODELS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT...USED BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH YIELDED LIMITED CHANCES OF RAIN AND MAINLY A SNOW EVENT FOR
MUCH OF CWA...EVEN AS SFC TEMPS ON THURSDAY RISE AGAIN INTO THE 30S.
BASED ON 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES OVER LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS IT SEEMS THAT LESS OF A RAIN IDEA IS SHOWING UP...BUT AGAIN
THIS COULD CHANGE ONCE RAOBS BETTER SAMPLE THIS DISTURBANCE EARLY
THIS WEEK.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SW-NE MOVING SHORTWAVES/SFC WAVES IMPACTING GREAT
LAKES ON FRONT EDGE OF DEVELOPING LARGER SCALE TROUGH. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK GOOD GIVEN THIS PATTERN WITH
PTYPE BACK TO MOSTLY SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALL THREE TAF
SITES WILL SEE THE SNOW END WHILE CIGS AND VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY
IMPROVE. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE IN THE EVENING HAVE
GIVEN WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KIWD AND KCMX. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS AT KSAW WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY 9Z AS THE
SNOWS TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES PAST. THERE
REMAINS SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND HEAT FLUXES OFF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HOW THIS MAY HELP KEEP CIGS LOWER A BIT
LONGER...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL. AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN VFR
CIGS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE TO STAY LIGHT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
OVERALL...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING OVER EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR...BUT GALES ARE
NOT EXPECTED AS MAIN SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER CNTRL AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY TREND STRONGER LATE THIS WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. WITH THE LAKE ALMOST COMPLETELY
ICE COVERED...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
335 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING LEADING TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A COUPLE TO PERHAPS A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MAINLY DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LIKELY FOLLOWED BY SOME RAIN OR SNOW ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
...SUNSHINE FOR MANY BEHIND DEPARTING LIGHT SNOW...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
CURRENT WEATHER/SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING IS NOW WORKING
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. RUC ANALYSIS SEEMINGLY TOO STRONG WITH
OVERALL DEEP LAYER FORCING WHICH IS NOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...BASED ON
WEAKNESS OF OVERALL RADAR RETURNS. GRANTED...THE ACTIVITY HAS PICKED
UP JUST A LITTLE BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS GTV
BAY...WHERE THE BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK
SFC LOW (CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN) RESIDE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
VERY WEAK IN LAX PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS...LIGHT/VERY LIGHT
SNOWS. BACK EDGE OF THE ENHANCED DEEPER MOISTURE PER LATEST
SATELLITE DATA...ALREADY OUT OF EASTERN UPPER WITH LAST VESTIGES OF
3-5SM SNOWS NOW ENDING IN WESTERN CHIP/MAC COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. UPSTREAM...IN A SEEMINGLY UNFATHOMABLE CHANGE OF
WEATHER PATTERN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. YES. YES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...AND WARMTH...WAS IMPRESSIVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
WESTERN DAKOTAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE RETURN SRLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN MN...WAS RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. CONVERSELY...ON THE LIGHT WIND
FORWARD FLANK/LIGHT WIND SIDE..WERE TEMPERATURES IN THE 0 TO -10F
BELOW ZERO RANGE....AND AREAS OF STRATUS.
PATTERN EVOLUTION/WEATHER EXPECTATIONS: UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE/WAA/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND
EXITS THE REGION WITH DISSOLVING SFC LOW/ABSORPTION INTO DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. LIGHT/VERY LIGHT SNOWS WILL BE ENDING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE MORNING...OUT OF THE CWA AND INTO SAG BAY
AROUND ROUGHLY 16Z. IT IT`S WAKE...AGAIN...HINTS OF TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION WITH
LOADS OF DRY AIR ALOFT. GOTTA BELIEVE THAT WHATEVER SHALLOW CU CAN
FIRE OFF WITH SUNUP...WILL QUICKLY ERODE...IF IT FORMS AT ALL. THIS
WILL LEAVE NRN MICHIGAN IN A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AGAIN FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE AFTERNOON (LEAST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN THE SE CWA).
THESE CLEAR/CLEARING SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE EVENING
WITH DEEP/DRY ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 650MB/700MB. OF
COURSE CANNOT RULE OUT ANY PATCHY STRATUS...BUT IT LOOKS MORE CLEAR
THAN ANYTHING. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES IN WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW DROP RATHER EFFICIENTLY THROUGH THE EVENING...GETTING A GOOD
HEAD START. NEGATIVELY TILTING...MUCH TALKED ABOUT NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL BE RACING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG WARM FRONT WITH IMPRESSIVE 285-290K ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/NET ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING
AND DEVELOPING N-S ORIENTED SWATH OF SNOW MIXED WITH SOME SLEET.
CLOUDS ALOFT THICKEN OVERNIGHT...AND SLOW/STOP THE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. CAN SEE SOME -5 TO -15F READING FOR LOWS ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE CLEAR SKIES LAST LONGER...BUT
MAYBE JUST A TAD WARMER THAN THAT CONSIDERING THE CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
CHALLENGING FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH IS NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WHEN THE
PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW PROCESS OF WARMING UP USUALLY COMMENCES. THE
FIRST SYSTEM OF INTEREST MONDAY...IS LOOKING WAY WEAKER...NOW AN
OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE. MILDER TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND SYSTEM ON THURSDAY IS
TRENDING A BIT COOLER/LESS AMPLIFIED INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OVER
PRECIPITATION TYPE. COLDER AIR THEN LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HOW MUCH IT WILL WARM UP TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE ON THURSDAY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EXTENDED MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A MUCH
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY
MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT (THOUGH THE OUTLYING ECMWF REMAINS MUCH
DEEPER). THIS SPELLS LOWER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF
TWO TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST (MID TO LATE MORNING) TO EAST (SHORTLY
AFTER NOON) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST. LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A TEMPORARY SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN WITH MILDER AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT FOR THE MOST PART LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER...THOUGH
TROUGHS MOVING BY TO THE NORTH MAY COMPROMISE THE DRY PART OF THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS). HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVIDENCES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT TRACKS BY
TO OUR NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATEST TRENDS ARE HEDGING
TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED/LESS WARM SYSTEM...WITH A POSSIBLE SECONDARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH CUTTING OFF THE INFLOW
OF WARMER AIR. THIS OBVIOUSLY CASTS LOTS OF DOUBT ABOUT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST GENERAL WITH
RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND RAIN LIKELY SOUTH THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY IS
NOW EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH.
A PACIFIC RIDGE THEN BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STRENGTHENS NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING/COLD AIR
RETURNING TO THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FRIDAY
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
-SN OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT. -SN WILL FALL WELL NORTH OF THE LOW...AND AS
ALREADY STARTED TO INVADE THE AREA. SEVERAL HOURS OF VSBYS CIRCA
2SM ARE EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES NEAR MBL/TVC. CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...JUST A TOUCH OF A NORTH
BREEZE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1225 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED UPSTREAM
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO NRN MN AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER
IA. RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES FROM 7.5C-8.0C/KM HAS
HELPED MAXIMIZING LIFT WITH THE MODERATE 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV
AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV HAS SUPPORTED AREAS OF MODERATE SNOW FROM NRN MN
INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SNOW ALSO FROM NRN MN INTO THE KEWEENAW
ALSO HAD A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE...PER VIS SATELLITE LOOP.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WERE THICKENING ACROSS THE REST OF UPPER MI AS
THE AREA OF SNOW FROM NEAR DLH INTO NW WI APPROACHED IWD.
THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS
AFTERNOON WAS ALIGNED WITH 800-600 MB FGEN.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND THE NAM/REGIONAL GEM SUGGEST
THAT THE STRONGER FORCING WILL SLIDE THROUGH WRN AND WRN UPPER MI
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV. UPSTREAM OBS AND MODELS CONSENSUS
QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.15 INCH WITH THE SLR VALUES OF AROUND 20/1 WOULD
GIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. SOME LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE THE DURATION OF FGEN
FORCING AND LOCALLY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW SQUEEZES
OUT SOME GREATER AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS OVER THE KEWEENAW WOULD LIKELY BE
MUCH HIGHER BUT THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER HAS LIMITED ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL ERLY FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AS THE SHRTWV
DEPARTS.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT LES INTO N CNTRL
UPPER MI WITH SOME MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX FROM ANY GAPS IN THE LAKE ICE
COVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS INITIALLY DRIVEN BY ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF A DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF AK. THAT
UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY MON INTO TUE...WITH SOME OF THE
REMAINING ENERGY BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE WRN AND CENTRAL CONUS
MID-LATE THIS WEEK WHERE MODELS INDICATE IT WILL BE DEEPENED INTO A
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES.
THE FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MON
INTO MON NIGHT. A FEW THINGS ARE LEADING TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH...TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IMPACTS
RELATED FIELDS SUCH AS QPF. FIRST...THE ENERGY IS STILL TIED TO THE
LOW AND IS OVER THE PACIFIC...AND THEREFORE OUT OF THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL OBSERVATION NETWORK SO SAMPLING IS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT OF AN
ISSUE. SECOND...AND PROBABLY THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL REASON FOR
DISAGREEMENT...IS THAT THE ENERGY LOOKS TO BE SPLIT BETWEEN A NRN
AND SRN SHORTWAVE...THE SOUTHERN OF WHICH IS HELPED OUT BY AN JET
STREAK AND IS THE MAIN FEATURE. MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE /RUN TO
RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL/ WITH AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OF THE ENERGY TO
ALLOT TO EACH OF THE SHORTWAVES...ALONG WITH MOISTURE FIELDS AND
SUCH. THE 12Z/15 GFS AND 00Z/15 ECMWF REPRESENT TWO OF THE EXTREMES
WITH THE NRN SHORTWAVE. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER /WITH LOWER QPF
TOTALS LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES/ WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER
AND ACTUALLY HAS THE NRN SHORTWAVE BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE
WHILE BECOMING CLOSED OFF OVER LOWER MI LATE MON. THE ECMWF HAS THE
MOST QPF AT 0.35-0.45 INCHES. WHILE NOT AT ALL SURE IF ANY OF THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS WILL BE CORRECT...WILL USE THE 12/15 NAM AND 12/15 GEM
SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THE NAM IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS WHILE THE GEM IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...BUT THEY
ARE STILL MORE MODERATED SOLUTIONS TO THE TWO EXTREMES. THIS GIVES
TOTAL QPF OF 0.25-0.35 INCHES...WHICH TRANSLATES TO ROUGHLY 3-5
INCHES OF SNOW...WHICH MATCHES UP TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL...YET WEAKER...SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE THROUGH TUE INTO
WED...WITH CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LOOKS TO
BE QUITE A BIT MORE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS NOT AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE. MORE INTERESTINGLY...MODELS BRING
AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS AS WARM AS 0C ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MAX SFC TEMPS AROUND 30F...WET BULB ZERO TEMPS ABOVE
THE SFC WILL BE BELOW ZERO. THIS IS WHERE PRECIP IS MORE OF AN ISSUE
IN THAT THE DRY MID LEVELS WILL LEAVE THE DGZ DRY AND THE STRONG
INVERSION BENEATH THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL TRAP PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS LATE MON NIGHT BEFORE THAT MOISTURE GETS MIXED BY
DAYTIME HEATING TUE. COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE N OF LAKE
MICHIGAN DUE TO SW WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND UPSLOPE FLOW THERE.
AN UPPER TROUGH THEN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING...BRINGING A COOLER
AIRMASS WITH IT. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MODELS HAVE MOVING THROUGH
LATE WED/WED NIGHT IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO TEMPS MAY
NOT GET AS WARM ON WED. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WED.
THU THROUGH NEXT SUN IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. QUESTIONS ABOUT STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE
TROUGH...ALONG WITH PHASING AND HOW MUCH/WHEN PIECES OF ENERGY CAN
EJECT FROM THE TROUGH ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO ANSWER AT THIS POINT. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR MUCH STRONGER SYSTEMS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH INCLUDES POSSIBILITIES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP /EITHER
MIXED PTYPE OR SNOW/. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSER
MONITORING BY THOSE WITH TRAVEL/OUTDOOR INTERESTS AS FORECASTS ARE
REFINED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLDER AIR WILL MOVED INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. USED A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE POOR MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALL THREE TAF
SITES WILL SEE THE SNOW END WHILE CIGS AND VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY
IMPROVE. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE IN THE EVENING HAVE
GIVEN WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KIWD AND KCMX. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS AT KSAW WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY 9Z AS THE
SNOWS TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES PAST. THERE
REMAINS SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND HEAT FLUXES OFF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HOW THIS MAY HELP KEEP CIGS LOWER A BIT
LONGER...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL. AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN VFR
CIGS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE TO STAY LIGHT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY UNDER 20 KTS WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS. ONE WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. THE SECOND WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR 20 TO 30 KT SE WINDS OVER MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH THE LAKE
ALMOST COMPLETELY ICE COVERED...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FREEZING
SPRAY ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
254 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A NICE UPPER TROUGH WORKING
OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND ON TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. LOOKING AT THE
RAP H4-H3 PV ANALYSIS...THERE ARE TWO MAIN CORES WITH THIS
TROUGH...ONE UP OVER SE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE OTHER WORKING
ACROSS SRN IDAHO. AT THE SFC...THESE TWO PV FEATURES HAVE LED TO THE
GENERATION OF A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...THE MAIN
ONE BEING A 990 MB LOW MOVING INTO SW MANITOBA WITH A SECONDARY 995
MB LOW ALONG THE ERN WYOMING/MONTANA BORDER. FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...IT WILL BE THESE FEATURES THAT WILL BE THE IMPETUS BEHIND
THE QUICK HITTING SNOW EVENT THAT WILL HAPPEN LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE HIGH...WITH THE TWO
PV FEATURES BEGINNING TO MERGE INTO ONE OVER MN MONDAY MORNING.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS THAT ARE LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHEN/HOW MUCH SNOW WE WILL SEE WITH THIS EVENT. THE FIRST ISSUE
DEALS WITH WHAT WE ARE SEEING NOW...DRY SE LOW LEVEL FLOW EMANATING
FROM AN ARCTIC HIGH OFF TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR /WHICH VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SHOWS IS NEARLY FROZEN OVER/. THE OTHER
ISSUE DEALS WITH THE TWO WAVES OF FORCING/PRECIP EXPECTED TONIGHT.
THOSE SOURCES OF FORCING LOOKING TO COME IN THE FORM OF AN INITIAL
WARM ADVECTIVE PUSH AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE COMING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS...BASED ON HRRR/HOPWRF AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS IS THAT
THE WARM ADVECTIVE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO BLOSSOM UP IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...THEN TRY TO BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL/ERN
MN THIS EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH PRECIP DEVELOPING
IN THE MPX AREA UNTIL AFTER 6Z...AS IT TAKES TIME TO OVERCOME THIS
AFTERNOONS DRY AIR. AS THIS INITIAL PUSH IS MOVING INTO WRN WI
AROUND 9Z...FORCING FROM THE MAIN UPPER WAVE SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP
FILLING IN OUT IN WRN MN. EVENTUALLY...THESE TWO BITS OF FORCING
MELD INTO ONE OVER WRN WI...WHERE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE STILL
INDICATED.
CHANGES MADE WITH THIS FORECAST WERE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIP ARRIVAL
TONIGHT AND SLOW SOME ITS DEPARTURE FOR MONDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH WHAT CURRENT HI-RES MODELS SHOW FOR TIMING. ALSO BUMPED DOWN
SOME QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...MAINLY IN WRN WI. PROBLEM HERE IS THAT
THE RAPID PACE WITH WHICH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANYONE TO GET UP OVER 6 INCHES.
GIVEN HIGH AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE ON QPF AMOUNTS...THIS FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE RAW OUTPUT...WHICH RESULTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM AROUND 1 INCH BY THE SODAK BORDER...WITH 5-6 INCHES OUT
TOWARD EAU CLAIRE AND LADYSMITH...AND 3-5 INCHES FOR THE CITIES.
LEFT WARNING HEADLINE UNCHANGED AS THE TIMING FOR THIS SNOW WILL
COINCIDE WITH MORNING COMMUTES. FOR THE ADVY...ADDED NICOLLET...BLUE
EARTH...AND FARIBAULT COUNTIES SO THAT NOW THE WEST EDGE OF THE ADVY
COINCIDES WITH WHERE THE WRN EDGE OF THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 3 INCHES OR MORE.
FOR MONDAY...WHAT WILL BE INTERESTING ABOUT THIS SNOW IS THAT AS IT
MOVES OUT...WE WILL BE REPLACING IT WITH WARMER...NOT COLDER AIR.
WITH THAT SAID...DID NUDGE HIGHS DOWN INTO THE MID 20S FOR WRN
WI...WHERE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL ENSURE AN OVERCAST DAYLIGHT
PERIOD. STILL HAVE HIGHS UP NEAR 40 SW OF THE MN RIVER...THOUGH THIS
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. DID FAVOR THE HIGHS OUT WEST CLOSER TO THE MOS
GUIDANCE...AS RAW MODEL OUTPUT LOOKS TO BE GIVING TOO MUCH
IMPORTANCE ON THE SNOWPACK...THE EDGE OF WHICH IS LESS THAN 100
MILES AWAY FROM THE SW CWA THANKS TO A SNOW FREE LANDSCAPE ACROSS
NEBRASKA INTO SRN SODAK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
THE LONGER TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A RETURN FROM FAIRLY ZONAL
FLOW TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UNFORTUNATELY... AS IS OFTEN THE CASE... HOW WE GET FROM POINT A
TO POINT B ISN/T ENTIRELY CLEAR... AND THERE ARE WIDELY VARYING
DETAILS AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS. THE INITIAL PART OF THE
LONGER RANGE IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD... WITH MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY... BUT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY AND HAS
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR IN ITS WAKE... SO NOT MUCH OF A COOL DOWN
EXPECTED. HOWEVER... A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR WEST DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME... AND SETUP
A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC RUNS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY SPLIT OUR AREA
WITH THE BEST FORCING... TAKING THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NORTH WHILE THE SOUTHERN WAVE AND DEEP MOISTURE STAY TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER... THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE VARIED QUITE A BIT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS... AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW A FAIR
DEGREE OF SPREAD. SO... AT THIS POINT THE UNFORTUNATE PATH OF
LEAST RESISTANCE IS TO HAVE SHOTGUN POPS FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK... INITIALLY WITH THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
SYSTEM... THEN WITH THE REINFORCING SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP INTO
THE AREA BY SATURDAY. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLEAN
SOME OF THIS UP IF/WHEN SOLUTIONS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT... BUT
WITH THE PATTERN RE-AMPLIFYING SOME DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
REMAINS OF MORNING IFR CIGS QUICKLY BEING DONE IN BY DRY SE WINDS
AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY 19Z AT AXN...WITH CONDS REMAINING VFR
EVERYWHERE UNTIL SNOW SHOWS UP TONIGHT...PER THE NAM/GFS/RAP. AS
FOR THAT SNOW...IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT IT WILL COME
IN TWO BURSTS. FIRST WITH A WARM ADVECTIVE BAND OF SNOW...FOLLOWED
BY A 2 OR 3 HOUR LULL...THEN THE SNOW WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE.
THE HRRR WAS FOLLOWED FOR BRINGING IN THE FIRST WAVE...WITH THE
SECOND LEANING MORE TOWARD A NAM/HI-RES ARW TIMING. IT IS THE
SECOND WAVE THAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS...AND
THE TIMING FOR THIS WAS SLOWED DOWN FROM THE 12Z TAFS. CONFIDENCE
A LITTLE LOWER ON END TIMES FOR THE SNOW/LOWER CIGS...BUT BOTH THE
NAM/GFS SHOW VFR CONDS WORKING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE SNOW.
LASTLY...WINDS WILL PICK UP CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT NOT SEEING MUCH GUST POTENTIAL...JUST STRONG
SUSTAINED WINDS UP AT 15-20 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTS ABOUT 5 KTS
ABOVE THAT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR BLSN ISSUES..MAINLY FOR
AXN/RWF.
KMSP...FOR SNOWFALL TONIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MSP WILL
GET ONE BURST OF SNOW BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z...WITH VIS OCCASIONALLY
DIPPING DOWN TO AS LOW AS 3/4SM. WILL SEE A LULL WITH IMPROVING
VIS BETWEEN 8Z AND 10Z...WITH THE SECOND...MORE MEANINGFUL BURST
COMING DOWN IN THE 11Z TO 13Z WINDOW...WHERE VIS WILL HAVE TO
POTENTIAL TO GET DOWN TO 1/2SM. SNOW LOOKS TO GO FAIRLY LIGHT BY
15Z AND WILL BE ALL BUT DOWN BY 17Z. AS FOR ACCUMS...BURST ONE
LOOKS TO GIVE A QUICK INCH...WITH 2-3 INCHES FOR THE SECOND
ONE...WITH A STORM TOTAL UP AROUND 4 INCHES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND W 10 KT.
WED...VFR. WIND S 5-15 KT.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR IN -SN. WIND W 7-12KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR MNZ042>045-049-050-058-066-067-075-076-083>085-092-093.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1209 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE NOTABLY HAMPERED...AS A BURST
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FALLS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH /NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EJECTING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING/. ISENTROPIC LIFT BLOSSOMS OVER THE
AREA BETWEEN 03Z /WEST/ AND 12Z /EAST/. ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS...AND STILL EXPECT GENERALLY 3-5 INCHES FROM ST CLOUD TO THE
TWIN CITES AND FAIRMONT...WITH 5 TO 7 TO THE EAST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WI. WHERE THE WARNING-WORTHY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /6 INCHES/
ARE NOT MET IN MN...THE CRITICAL TIMING OF THE PRE-RUSH HOUR BURST
SHOULD JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF A WARNING.
IN THE MEANTIME...LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID
MORNING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 20S. LOWS
TONIGHT REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY. INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY AND
CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THERE...WHILE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ARE
MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
AFT THE SNOW STORM ON MONDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS VERY FAST FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW. THIS TYPE OF FAST/ZONAL
FLOW WILL CREATE TIMING PROBLEMS WITH SHRTWV/S AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL PASSAGES. EVEN WITH A FASTER...TIMING OF EACH SHRTWV WILL
CREATE PROBLEMS WITH RETURN FLOW AND THE ADDED AFFECT OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL HOLD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE U.S. AT LEAST THRU MIDWEEK. SFC FEATURES
REMAIN DISORGANIZED WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF THE MAIN SFC LOW
ACROSS CANADA...AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A LIMITING FACTOR FOR OUR REGION TO GET THE ADDED AFFECT OF
INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC LOW. THEREFORE...WILL
KEEP THE CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THRU
MIDWEEK...WITH SOME MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/RAIN LATE
WED/THU BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO INVADE THE NORTHERN U.S.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...THIS MIDWEEK
WARMUP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHG BACK
TOWARD THE PREVIOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST...AND THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. 85H TEMPS BY THE WEEK OF FEB 23RD
FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS BLW ZERO. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BLW NORMAL
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
REMAINS OF MORNING IFR CIGS QUICKLY BEING DONE IN BY DRY SE WINDS
AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY 19Z AT AXN...WITH CONDS REMAINING VFR
EVERYWHERE UNTIL SNOW SHOWS UP TONIGHT...PER THE NAM/GFS/RAP. AS
FOR THAT SNOW...IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT IT WILL COME
IN TWO BURSTS. FIRST WITH A WARM ADVECTIVE BAND OF SNOW...FOLLOWED
BY A 2 OR 3 HOUR LULL...THEN THE SNOW WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE.
THE HRRR WAS FOLLOWED FOR BRINGING IN THE FIRST WAVE...WITH THE
SECOND LEANING MORE TOWARD A NAM/HI-RES ARW TIMING. IT IS THE
SECOND WAVE THAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS...AND
THE TIMING FOR THIS WAS SLOWED DOWN FROM THE 12Z TAFS. CONFIDENCE
A LITTLE LOWER ON END TIMES FOR THE SNOW/LOWER CIGS...BUT BOTH THE
NAM/GFS SHOW VFR CONDS WORKING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE SNOW.
LASTLY...WINDS WILL PICK UP CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT NOT SEEING MUCH GUST POTENTIAL...JUST STRONG
SUSTAINED WINDS UP AT 15-20 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTS ABOUT 5 KTS
ABOVE THAT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR BLSN ISSUES..MAINLY FOR
AXN/RWF.
KMSP...FOR SNOWFALL TONIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MSP WILL
GET ONE BURST OF SNOW BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z...WITH VIS OCCASIONALLY
DIPPING DOWN TO AS LOW AS 3/4SM. WILL SEE A LULL WITH IMPROVING
VIS BETWEEN 8Z AND 10Z...WITH THE SECOND...MORE MEANINGFUL BURST
COMING DOWN IN THE 11Z TO 13Z WINDOW...WHERE VIS WILL HAVE TO
POTENTIAL TO GET DOWN TO 1/2SM. SNOW LOOKS TO GO FAIRLY LIGHT BY
15Z AND WILL BE ALL BUT DOWN BY 17Z. AS FOR ACCUMS...BURST ONE
LOOKS TO GIVE A QUICK INCH...WITH 2-3 INCHES FOR THE SECOND
ONE...WITH A STORM TOTAL UP AROUND 4 INCHES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND W 10 KT.
WED...VFR. WIND S 5-15 KT.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR IN -SN. WIND W 7-12KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR MNZ042>045-049-050-058-066-067-076-084-085-093.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
336 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
Stratus deck building southward will likely make it as far south as
the Missouri River this morning, possibly a bit further south than
that, with the western edge close to St. Joseph and Kansas City. This
stratus deck may gradually scatter out later this afternoon but
will likely keep temperatures quite a bit cooler than previously
forecast. Even areas west of this stratus deck will likely see a
thick mid-layer deck for much of the day, so temperatures were
lowered several degrees across the board with highs generally in the
lower to middle 30s.
Warm air advection will get underway late tonight and will be
accompanied by a wave of light rain and drizzle developing around
midnight and lasting through Monday morning. This rain will
initially encounter sub-freezing temperatures across much of northern
Missouri possibly as far south as I-70. These temperatures will
gradually rise above freezing through the overnight and early
morning hours so that the entire region rises above freezing by mid
to late Monday morning. However this will still provide a couple of
hours of freezing rain for areas near and slightly north of the
Missouri River, and possibly 6 hours or more of freezing rain for far
northern MO. Model QPF amounts have been fairly consistent with this
system with anywhere from 0.1" to 0.25" liquid- equivalent falling
across north central and northeast Missouri, the higher amounts being
around the Kirksville area and points north and east. This region
will also be the last to rise above freezing Monday morning and
appears likely to receive a tenth or two of ice accumulation through
this time. There could also be a few periods of sleet or snow across
far northern Missouri Monday morning but any accumulations should be
very minor.
Given the likelihood of hazardous ice accumulations tonight and
Monday, a freezing rain advisory has been issued for areas along and
northeast of a Bethany to Macon line (opted for freezing rain advy vs
winter weather advy since any sleet or snow should be of minimal
impact). These areas stand the highest chance of seeing ice
accumulations of a tenth of an inch or more. However, periods of
freezing rain are likely much further south than this late tonight,
possibly as far south as Kansas City and Sedalia for a brief period
around midnight before temperatures rise above freezing. Therefore
the advisory stands a good chance of being expanded further south and
west during the day once we have a better handle on how far south the
freezing line will be once the rain begins. For now a conservative
approach was taken on the advisory to give an extra heads up to areas
which will see the highest ice accumulations and for a longer period
of time.
The warm air advection that will drive tonight`s precipitation event
will also allow temperatures to rise into the 40s across the entire
area by Monday afternoon. This warmup will continue into Tuesday with
highs ranging from the upper 40s over northern MO to the upper 50s
near and south of I-70. Similar temperatures are expected on
Wednesday. These warm temperatures will set the stage for rain and a
few embedded thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday when a
surface low will track across Kansas and Missouri. Instability will
be weak and of an elevated nature so that any thunderstorms should be
isolated and fairly weak.
A lack of strong meridional upper flow behind Wednesday night`s
system will maintain above-average temperatures for Thursday and
Friday. Another system will develop somewhere across the Central or
Northern Plains late in the week as an upper-level trough digs into
the central U.S. There has been quite a bit of wavering with the exact
track of this system with a few model runs suggesting a further south
track that would give us a chance of snow Friday night and Saturday.
Such a solution can`t be ruled out but trends suggest a storm track
north of our area is more likely.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
Tricky aviation forecast heading into daybreak Sunday as stratus
continue to drop southward out of Iowa and Nebraska this morning.
Models generally having a hard time with this low-level moisture, but
RAP and HRRR have captured general trends well this evening. That
said, steering winds in the cloud layer continue to support a south
to southeast trajectory through daybreak which should bring the
stratus into KSTJ and perhaps as far south as the KC terminals.
Current ceilings right around 1500-2000 Ft AGL, and not expecting any
further lowering.
With winds remaining rather light out of the north, this stratus
could hang out into mid-morning but confidence on this a
significantly lower. Winds will begin to turn to the southeast by
midday with increasing mid-upr clouds through the evening hours.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 10 PM this evening to Noon CST
Monday FOR MOZ003-005>008-015>017-024-025.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Dux
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 352 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
Main concern in the short term will be the potential for freezing
rain/freezing drizzle Sunday night after midnight into Monday
morning. This could potentially make a mess of the Monday morning
commute.
Tonight, a weak cold front will drop through the area. Winds will
shift to the north behind the front and should remain around 5-10
MPH through the overnight hours. This will help keep temperatures
from plummeting as they did last night. Lows will be in the mid
teens to mid 20s. Tomorrow morning a surface ridge of high pressure
will move into the region. This will allow for mostly sunny skies
however snow cover and little mixing will keep high temperatures at
bay. Highs will range from the upper 20s across the northeastern CWA
to the low 40s across the southwestern CWA where south winds may
pick up later in the afternoon.
As high pressure shifts off to the east late Sunday afternoon/Sunday
evening, warm air advection will get underway. Temperatures will
actually climb through the overnight Sunday night with lows
occurring before midnight. An digging upper level shortwave will
move from the central Rockies into the central Plains Sunday night.
This will force a cold front into eastern Kansas during the early
morning hours. Model sounding indicate light drizzle will develop
out ahead of this front during the early morning hours of Monday.
The main challenge here will be the surface and road temperatures as
this drizzle moves into the area. Temperatures will be below
freezing across northern Missouri and precipitation will begin as
freezing drizzle. Further south, where temperatures are above
freezing, drizzle will occur however temperatures will be near
enough to freezing that drizzle may freeze to frozen surfaces on
contact. Temperatures will continue to rise through the morning
hours as the cold front moves through the area, increased moisture
and added lift will mean rain instead of drizzle. And, with the
increasing temperatures any freezing precipitation will change over
to liquid precipitation by late morning. Rain will exit the area by
early afternoon as high pressure begins to build into the region
from the southwest.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 352 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
"January Thaw" continues for the week with much above average
temperatures through Thursday and possibly Friday. Fast zonal flow
will prevail with progressive shortwaves during this period.
Mid-week shortwave is expected to generate convection with thunder.
Latest ECMWF is considerably weaker than previous runs as it no
longer generates a strong southern trough coming out of the Southern
Rockies. ECMWF is now more in-line with the GFS solution resulting
in a weaker surface reflection. However, both models develop a
strong southerly low level-jet and transport considerable low level
moisture northward. For this reason believe the net effect will be a
stronger surface cyclone but not as strong as the earlier ECMWF
model runs. The expected increase in instability and isentropic
ascent will power the convective development. Favor increasing PoPs
Wednesday night. Recent model performance has been too slow in
moving these shortwaves within the fast zonal flow and feel this
will be the case as well with the mid-week system. So, have also
ended precipitation faster on Thursday.
Friday should see a slight recovery in temperatures in the wake of
Thursday`s cold frontal passage. Temperatures should be close to
seasonal averages.
Considerable uncertainty on when the next system could affect the
region`s weather. 12z GFS and ECMWF are not in phase with each
other with the former sending a strong upper trough and deepening
surface low through the region. This solution would favor the
development of a deformation zone within the cold sector of the
system, resulting in a threat for snow over northwest MO. The ECMWF
shows a much weaker solution with one piece of energy moving through
IA/MO and another much stronger piece diving south into the desert
southwest. For now the best option is to use a model blend until
things sort themselves out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
Tricky aviation forecast heading into daybreak Sunday as stratus
continue to drop southward out of Iowa and Nebraska this morning.
Models generally having a hard time with this low-level moisture, but
RAP and HRRR have captured general trends well this evening. That
said, steering winds in the cloud layer continue to support a south
to southeast trajectory through daybreak which should bring the
stratus into KSTJ and perhaps as far south as the KC terminals.
Current ceilings right around 1500-2000 Ft AGL, and not expecting any
further lowering.
With winds remaining rather light out of the north, this stratus
could hang out into mid-morning but confidence on this a
significantly lower. Winds will begin to turn to the southeast by
midday with increasing mid-upr clouds through the evening hours.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Dux
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
859 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRIMARILY
LIGHT RAIN TO NEBRASKA ZONES TONIGHT.
TODAY...AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM. THIS WILL TURN OUR WINDS TO SOUTHERLY OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
WITH INCREASING WINDS BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MIXING WITH MIXING ONLY TO AROUND 875 TO 900
MB. THE DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS YESTERDAY WITH DEEP MIXING WAS
CERTAINLY MORE SUPPORTIVE OF GREATER WARMTH THAN WHAT THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL GET US TODAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT STILL NOT A BAD
DAY WITH HIGHS FROM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SOUTHWEST. IN OTHER WORDS...EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO THE MID
50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS NOT A VERY DEEP WAVE AND IT IS
VERY PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL PREVENT IT FROM TAPPING INTO ANY
SOUTHERN MOISTURE SUPPLY. IT IS ALSO A WARM SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR CARRYING WITH IT ABOVE FREEZING 850 MB AIR. IN FACT THE PROFILE
IS INITIALLY SO WARM PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
CALL FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN. THE PROFILE WILL COOL AS IT FURTHER
SATURATES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW...BUT SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR ANY SNOW TO ACCUMULATE IF THE RAIN EVEN CAN CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THEREFORE...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS NEBRASKA
ZONES AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP KANSAS ZONES DRY TONIGHT. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRIMARILY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA ZONES WITH MOST AREAS BEING LUCKY
IF THEY EVEN SEE A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
NOTEWORTHY ITEMS OVER THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE COOL DOWN EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK IS ALSO OF INTEREST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...WE WILL EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR SOUTH COULD BE
IN THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BOTH LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS. THEREAFTER...A PATTERN CHANGE
WILL BEGIN AS WE SEE A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO
THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE COVERAGE AREA. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE 30S FOR A HIGH.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE TRI-CITIES RANGE FROM ABOUT 40 TO
42 DEGREES...WHILE LOWS RANGE FROM ABOUT 17 TO 20 DEGREES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
LOOKING AT THE PATTERN ALOFT...WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE EXITING THE REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE PUSHING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...MONDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE...WITH WINDS SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND
20 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. BEYOND MONDAY...WE ARE STUCK IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT UNTIL OUR NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO PASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE....BUT THIS FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE AS STRONG AS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AS THE WAVE PASSES...THERE WILL
BE A 12 HOUR TIMEFRAME WHERE PRECIPITATION IS BEST SUITED TO FALL
ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE AIR IS NOT ENTIRELY SATURATED DURING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SECOND WAVE...AND THIS DRY AIR COULD RESULT IN A PROBLEM AS FAR
AS THE FORECAST GOES. PERHAPS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO HELP INDUCE PRECIPITATION. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
IS VERY SMALL AND THERE COULD EASILY BE NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR CWA. IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL...IT WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS
RAIN...THEN THE CWA WILL BE SPLIT BETWEEN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR NORTH...AND RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. AFTER 12Z ON
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL OFF THE EAST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN FRINGE IN CASE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS STILL ONGOING AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS STILL LOOKING
RATHER LOW...PRIMARILY DUE TO INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. NEVERTHELESS...STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...ALBEIT THIS IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY AT THIS POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN BUILD MORE CONSISTENCY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SATURDAY WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION.
SIMILAR STORY HERE WITH A LACK OF CONTINUITY BETWEEN MODEL OUTPUT.
GFS PAINTS A DRY SOLUTION...WHEREAS THE ECMWF RESULTS IN QPF ACROSS
THE CWA AS ANOTHER WAVE PASSES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WAS VERY
SIMILAR A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO...SO THIS WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
WE CONTINUE TO GET A LACK OF CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC GOING
FORWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
UPDATE...AN IFR CEILING NEAR 500FT AGL IS APPROACHING GRI FROM THE
EAST AND MAY IMPACT GRI THROUGH MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD
WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS 15-17Z...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE UPGRADED
TO A PREVAILING IFR IF IT APPEARS IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME AT GRI.
THE LOW IFR/MVFR CLOUDS HAVE STALLED THEIR SOUTHWEST ADVANCE JUST
NORTHEAST OF KGRI. THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW FOR A SCATTERED DECK OF
LOW CLOUDS AT KGRI THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN CASE A FEW OF
THESE CLOUDS SLIP IN...BUT WILL KEEP LOW BKN CEILINGS OUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW. THE RAP MODEL CONTINUES TO BRING SOME OF THESE LOW
CLOUDS INTO KGRI...BUT THIS HAS YET TO HAPPEN THUS FAR. THE WIND
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MAY LOWER CEILINGS SOME AND BRING SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...BUT OVERALL SHOULD NOT BE TOO BIG OF A DEAL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...WESELY/BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
510 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRIMARILY
LIGHT RAIN TO NEBRASKA ZONES TONIGHT.
TODAY...AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM. THIS WILL TURN OUR WINDS TO SOUTHERLY OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
WITH INCREASING WINDS BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MIXING WITH MIXING ONLY TO AROUND 875 TO 900
MB. THE DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS YESTERDAY WITH DEEP MIXING WAS
CERTAINLY MORE SUPPORTIVE OF GREATER WARMTH THAN WHAT THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL GET US TODAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT STILL NOT A BAD
DAY WITH HIGHS FROM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SOUTHWEST. IN OTHER WORDS...EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO THE MID
50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS NOT A VERY DEEP WAVE AND IT IS
VERY PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL PREVENT IT FROM TAPPING INTO ANY
SOUTHERN MOISTURE SUPPLY. IT IS ALSO A WARM SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR CARRYING WITH IT ABOVE FREEZING 850 MB AIR. IN FACT THE PROFILE
IS INITIALLY SO WARM PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
CALL FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN. THE PROFILE WILL COOL AS IT FURTHER
SATURATES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW...BUT SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR ANY SNOW TO ACCUMULATE IF THE RAIN EVEN CAN CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THEREFORE...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS NEBRASKA
ZONES AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP KANSAS ZONES DRY TONIGHT. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRIMARILY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA ZONES WITH MOST AREAS BEING LUCKY
IF THEY EVEN SEE A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
NOTEWORTHY ITEMS OVER THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE COOL DOWN EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK IS ALSO OF INTEREST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...WE WILL EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR SOUTH COULD BE
IN THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BOTH LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS. THEREAFTER...A PATTERN CHANGE
WILL BEGIN AS WE SEE A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO
THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE COVERAGE AREA. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE 30S FOR A HIGH.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE TRI-CITIES RANGE FROM ABOUT 40 TO
42 DEGREES...WHILE LOWS RANGE FROM ABOUT 17 TO 20 DEGREES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
LOOKING AT THE PATTERN ALOFT...WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE EXITING THE REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE PUSHING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...MONDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE...WITH WINDS SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND
20 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. BEYOND MONDAY...WE ARE STUCK IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT UNTIL OUR NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO PASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE....BUT THIS FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE AS STRONG AS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AS THE WAVE PASSES...THERE WILL
BE A 12 HOUR TIMEFRAME WHERE PRECIPITATION IS BEST SUITED TO FALL
ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE AIR IS NOT ENTIRELY SATURATED DURING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SECOND WAVE...AND THIS DRY AIR COULD RESULT IN A PROBLEM AS FAR
AS THE FORECAST GOES. PERHAPS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO HELP INDUCE PRECIPITATION. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
IS VERY SMALL AND THERE COULD EASILY BE NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR CWA. IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL...IT WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS
RAIN...THEN THE CWA WILL BE SPLIT BETWEEN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR NORTH...AND RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. AFTER 12Z ON
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL OFF THE EAST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN FRINGE IN CASE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS STILL ONGOING AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS STILL LOOKING
RATHER LOW...PRIMARILY DUE TO INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. NEVERTHELESS...STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...ALBEIT THIS IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY AT THIS POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN BUILD MORE CONSISTENCY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SATURDAY WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION.
SIMILAR STORY HERE WITH A LACK OF CONTINUITY BETWEEN MODEL OUTPUT.
GFS PAINTS A DRY SOLUTION...WHEREAS THE ECMWF RESULTS IN QPF ACROSS
THE CWA AS ANOTHER WAVE PASSES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WAS VERY
SIMILAR A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO...SO THIS WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
WE CONTINUE TO GET A LACK OF CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC GOING
FORWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
THE LOW IFR/MVFR CLOUDS HAVE STALLED THEIR SOUTHWEST ADVANCE JUST
NORTHEAST OF KGRI. THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW FOR A SCATTERED DECK OF
LOW CLOUDS AT KGRI THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN CASE A FEW OF
THESE CLOUDS SLIP IN...BUT WILL KEEP LOW BKN CEILINGS OUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW. THE RAP MODEL CONTINUES TO BRING SOME OF THESE LOW
CLOUDS INTO KGRI...BUT THIS HAS YET TO HAPPEN THUS FAR. THE WIND
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MAY LOWER CEILINGS SOME AND BRING SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...BUT OVERALL SHOULD NOT BE TOO BIG OF A DEAL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
420 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRIMARILY
LIGHT RAIN TO NEBRASKA ZONES TONIGHT.
TODAY...AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM. THIS WILL TURN OUR WINDS TO SOUTHERLY OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
WITH INCREASING WINDS BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MIXING WITH MIXING ONLY TO AROUND 875 TO 900
MB. THE DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS YESTERDAY WITH DEEP MIXING WAS
CERTAINLY MORE SUPPORTIVE OF GREATER WARMTH THAN WHAT THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL GET US TODAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT STILL NOT A BAD
DAY WITH HIGHS FROM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SOUTHWEST. IN OTHER WORDS...EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO THE MID
50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS NOT A VERY DEEP WAVE AND IT IS
VERY PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL PREVENT IT FROM TAPPING INTO ANY
SOUTHERN MOISTURE SUPPLY. IT IS ALSO A WARM SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR CARRYING WITH IT ABOVE FREEZING 850 MB AIR. IN FACT THE PROFILE
IS INITIALLY SO WARM PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
CALL FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN. THE PROFILE WILL COOL AS IT FURTHER
SATURATES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW...BUT SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR ANY SNOW TO ACCUMULATE IF THE RAIN EVEN CAN CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THEREFORE...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS NEBRASKA
ZONES AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP KANSAS ZONES DRY TONIGHT. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRIMARILY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA ZONES WITH MOST AREAS BEING LUCKY
IF THEY EVEN SEE A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
NOTEWORTHY ITEMS OVER THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE COOL DOWN EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK IS ALSO OF INTEREST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...WE WILL EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR SOUTH COULD BE
IN THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BOTH LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS. THEREAFTER...A PATTERN CHANGE
WILL BEGIN AS WE SEE A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO
THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE COVERAGE AREA. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE 30S FOR A HIGH.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE TRI-CITIES RANGE FROM ABOUT 40 TO
42 DEGREES...WHILE LOWS RANGE FROM ABOUT 17 TO 20 DEGREES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
LOOKING AT THE PATTERN ALOFT...WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE EXITING THE REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE PUSHING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...MONDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE...WITH WINDS SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND
20 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. BEYOND MONDAY...WE ARE STUCK IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT UNTIL OUR NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO PASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE....BUT THIS FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE AS STRONG AS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AS THE WAVE PASSES...THERE WILL
BE A 12 HOUR TIMEFRAME WHERE PRECIPITATION IS BEST SUITED TO FALL
ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE AIR IS NOT ENTIRELY SATURATED DURING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SECOND WAVE...AND THIS DRY AIR COULD RESULT IN A PROBLEM AS FAR
AS THE FORECAST GOES. PERHAPS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO HELP INDUCE PRECIPITATION. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
IS VERY SMALL AND THERE COULD EASILY BE NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR CWA. IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL...IT WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS
RAIN...THEN THE CWA WILL BE SPLIT BETWEEN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR NORTH...AND RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. AFTER 12Z ON
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL OFF THE EAST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN FRINGE IN CASE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS STILL ONGOING AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS STILL LOOKING
RATHER LOW...PRIMARILY DUE TO INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. NEVERTHELESS...STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...ALBEIT THIS IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY AT THIS POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN BUILD MORE CONSISTENCY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SATURDAY WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION.
SIMILAR STORY HERE WITH A LACK OF CONTINUITY BETWEEN MODEL OUTPUT.
GFS PAINTS A DRY SOLUTION...WHEREAS THE ECMWF RESULTS IN QPF ACROSS
THE CWA AS ANOTHER WAVE PASSES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WAS VERY
SIMILAR A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO...SO THIS WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
WE CONTINUE TO GET A LACK OF CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC GOING
FORWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
THERE ARE SOME LOW MVFR/IFR CLOUDS SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
NEBRASKA THAT MIGHT MAKE IT INTO KGRI WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HAVE ADDED MVFR CEILINGS TO THE TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY BEGINNING AT 09Z. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW
LONG THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON...BUT BASED ON THE RAP MODEL
WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS ARE THE MORE LIKELY CLOUD BASE EARLY THIS
MORNING...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS. THE WIND
WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY SCATTER OUT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE FORECAST.
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF GULF OF ALASKA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE IS A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BACKDOOR COOL FRONT FROM KVTN TO
KLEX. FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND THEN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. WINDS NEAR
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT LOOK TO REMAIN BORDER LINE SO WILL HOLD OFF
HIGHLIGHTS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN.
HIGHS IN THE 50S YESTERDAY TOOK CARE OF MOST OF THE SNOW COVER TO
THE WEST. PERSISTENT CLOUDS IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CATEGORY THIS
MORNING AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON MAY INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION. MOST AREAS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
EXCEPT NORTH CENTRAL FROM BROKEN BOW TO ONEILL WHERE STRATUS AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOW 50S. FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MAJOR ENERGY NORTH WITH CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA. TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN IN THE EARLY EVENING
OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AND THEN WILL SPREAD EAST OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
OVERALL THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY FAST NW FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS CLIPPERS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS. EACH SYSTEM WILL
BRING CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH A DRY LOWER LEVEL WILL LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS.
TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE EARLY IN THE WEEK...BECOMING CLOSER IF NOT
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MONDAY MORNING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE A SUBTLE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND WILL
ASSIST IN MIXING WARMING AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC. SNOW PACK IS DOWN
TO PILES SO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO COOLING EFFECT FROM THE SNOW. THUS
HAVE GONE WITH THE WARMER EC AND MAV GUIDANCE. MAV IS THE
WARMEST...HOWEVER I DID UNDERCUT THE MAV IN FAVOR OF THE EC AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM MELTING PILES TO LIMIT HEATING SLIGHTLY.
THINK THE MET GUIDANCE IS STILL SEEING THE EFFECT OF A SNOW
PACK...CONSIDERING GUIDANCE IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER. TUES AND
WED CONTINUE TO SEE MILD FEB CONDITIONS AS HIGHS INTO THE 50S. A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MAIN LOW MOVING ALONG
THE US/CAN BORDER. SOUNDINGS ARE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...SO WHILE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND.
WED NIGHT THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN
LOW AGAIN SLIDES ACROSS SRN CANADA...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH QPF PRODUCED. HOWEVER LOOKING AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL BE NEEDED TO MOISTEN THE
LOWER LEVELS. SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER WITH THE LIFT TO THE EAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS RESULTS IN A LESS THAN 12 HOUR EVENT. ONE
CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR ARRIVES
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH PRECIP TO LIKELY START OUT IN LIQUID
FORM...THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW. AFTER A SHORT BREAK ANOTHER FAST
MOVING CLIPPER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS DO
BRINGING THE MAIN LOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN ITS PREDECESSORS...ACROSS
S DAKOTA...GFS AND NEB...ECMWF. THIS RESULTS IN BETTER LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME CONCERNS ABOUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
LOW POPS FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OVER THE
COMING DAYS. 850 MB TEMPS DO FALL BACK BELOW ZERO FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA BEHIND THE SYSTEM...SO COOLER HIGHS IN THE 30S BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
THE BANK OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS HAS DROPPED INTO NCNTL NEB AS
EXPECTED. THE MODEL CONSENSUS ADVANCES THESE CLOUDS TO KVTN-KBBW.
IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH VFR
DEVELOPING ALL AREAS AROUND 15Z PLUS OR MINUS 3 HOURS DUE TO
MODEL UNCERTAINTIES.
THE LOCAL IFR IS ON THE WRN/SRN FRINGE OF THE CLOUD GROUP AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO NEB.
ALSO...THE RAP PROJECTS THESE CLOUDS TO ADVANCE TO KMER- KLBF BY
14Z AND THEN RETREATS THEM VERY SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR HIGHWAY 183
BY 22Z. THIS WOULD KEEP KONL-KANW-KBBW IN MVFR MOST OF THE DAY
SUNDAY. NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW THIS HAPPENING SO FOR NOW
THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE LEAST LIKELY FORECAST OUTCOME.
OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING.
THEREAFTER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NRN NEB
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...SOME
WITH SQUALLS PRODUCING GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY EVENING. PERHAPS REACHING
KLBF BY O6Z SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1204 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IS ALSO NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 130KTS NEAR 250MB PER 12Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS ALONG THE MID LEVEL JET AXIS...BUT
MUCH OF THIS INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WEST OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
IS NOTED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.
THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA AND AS
A RESULT...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA IS BECOMING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE SURFACE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CLEARING OUR CWA...WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST THUS ALLOWING FOR A NORTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO THIS EVENING.
THIS WIND FIELD SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
QUICKLY MOVES OFF INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...THUS ALLOWING
FOR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS ACROSS MUCH OUR AREA
HEADING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST
AND WITH LITTLE IF ANY APPRECIABLE OMEGA EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS SHOULD PROMOTE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGESTS A SOMEWHAT COOLER LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS COULD INFILTRATE EAST/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THUS RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURE READINGS ON SUNDAY
WHEN COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT WARMER WEATHER SHOULD BE OBSERVED
FARTHER SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE WELL
ESTABLISHED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...SUNDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS OUR
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED FARTHER
WEST/SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
THERE ARE THREE MAIN AREAS TO FOCUS ON FOR THIS PERIOD...LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND
THEN COOLER WEATHER/PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES GIVEN GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT. ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERY TYPE FEEL TO THE RAIN AND
SNOW GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MY SENSE THIS WILL BE LESS A
STEADY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BUT MORE HIT/MISS IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. MOST OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS EVENT WILL MOVE IN QUICK
BY LATE EVENING...AND EXIT QUICKLY...AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN INITIALLY BUT END UP A COMBO OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN NEAR FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES THE
OVERNIGHT TIMING. EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH THIS MOISTURE-LACKING
SYSTEM COULD HELP CHANGE WHAT RAIN IS LEFT TO SNOW QUICKER. KEPT
THE LIGHT...FEW TENTHS OF INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT OVERALL
ITS A DUSTING TYPE EVENT OF WET SNOW. WHATEVER FALLS WON/T BE
AROUND LONG.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...THE
FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THREE PRETTY NICE DAYS. THOUGH MONDAY
STARTS WITH A NORTH WIND...WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND A DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. AIDED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...THIS
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES NICELY. WENT ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS.
A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
THAT COULD DROP TEMPERATURES A SMIDGEN ON TUESDAY...MAINLY
NORTH...ALTHOUGH WE ARE LIBEL TO EXPERIENCE A VERY MILD START TO
THE DAY SO THAT COULD OFFSET ANY COOLING WITH ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD
SUNSHINE. ITS STILL ANOTHER WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY TEMPERATURE
WISE.
WEDNESDAY COULD BE ANOTHER DAY LIKE MONDAY DEPENDING UPON HOW
QUICKLY WARM SURGES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. ANOTHER DAY WELL INTO THE 50S IF NOT 60 DEGREES.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD IS UNSETTLED WITH LITTLE MODEL
CONSISTENCY REGARDING ANY OF THE FINE DETAILS. ONE AGREEMENT IS IT
WILL COOL DOWN...PROBABLY IN TWO WAVES. THE FIRST WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 40S ON THURSDAY...COOLER BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. THE 2ND WAVE OF COLD WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND IS QUITE A BIT COLDER...LIKELY RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND REACHING LOW/MID 30S RANGE AT BEST. THE
CHILLY AIR IS DIRECTLY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SURGE UP THE WEST COAST TO ALASKA AND DISLODGING THE COLD AIR DOWN
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THIS HAS BEEN THE
TREND PRETTY MUCH ALL WINTER. PRECIPITATION WISE...THERE IS VERY
LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONGST MODELS. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
ENTER THE PICTURE WITH THE INITIAL INFLUX OF COOLER AIR...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THE STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. THE SATURDAY EVENT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER SHOT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH A LITTLE BIT STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
THERE ARE SOME LOW MVFR/IFR CLOUDS SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
NEBRASKA THAT MIGHT MAKE IT INTO KGRI WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HAVE ADDED MVFR CEILINGS TO THE TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY BEGINNING AT 09Z. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW
LONG THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON...BUT BASED ON THE RAP MODEL
WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS ARE THE MORE LIKELY CLOUD BASE EARLY THIS
MORNING...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS. THE WIND
WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY SCATTER OUT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TURNING COLDER ON NORTH WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN
MOST VALLEY AREAS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL ARRIVE EARLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1239 PM EST SUNDAY...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER
NOVA SCOTIA HAS INDUCED N-NW WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. LATEST RAP LOWERS 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND
-17 TO -18C BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST...WITH LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT. WILL MAINTAIN BROKEN
CLOUD COVER ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE WILL HELP OFFSET LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
SOMEWHAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WITH WELL-
MIXED CONDITIONS IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY.
GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
HELPING TO BRING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GETTING DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. IN THE ADKS...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EAST...DECREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NRN NY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS
AS MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING WAVE MOVES EAST...EXITING ERN VT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. IF THESE COLDER TEMPS IN THE ADKS
COINCIDE WITH WIND SPEEDS THAT TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...WIND
CHILLS MAY FALL TO COLDER THAN -20F...AND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED. AT THE SUMMITS TEMPS WILL BE EVEN COLDER WITH 850MB WIND
OF 20-30KTS LEADING TO EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILLS.
DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
AREA...BUT A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE OUT OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
TO MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL WARM TEMPS MONDAY NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY REACHING THE 20S-L30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EST SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF MODEL HAVING A
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT... WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS THIS FEATURE ALREADY APPROACHING
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER EMF
SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. EMF AND GFS MODELS
SHOWING A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION
WILL SEE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING... SO WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. EMF
AND GFS MODELS BOTH SHOWING A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION BY 18Z FRIDAY. SO PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE LOWER
THAN THE SUPER- BLEND GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY...AS BOTH THE EMF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALREADY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z FRIDAY. GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING...THIS WILL ALSO
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS
MOS EXTENDED FORECAST GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT LOWER MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TILL 00Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AS
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1238 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TURNING COLDER ON NORTH WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN
MOST VALLEY AREAS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL ARRIVE EARLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EST SUNDAY...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA HAS
INDUCED N-NW WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. LATEST RAP INDICATES 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C AT
14Z...PROGGED TO DROP TO -17 TO -18C BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SKIES
HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WEST...WITH LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NERN
VT...INCLUDING AT MORRISVILLE AND NEWPORT. WILL MAINTAIN BROKEN
CLOUD COVER ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE WILL HELP OFFSET LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
SOMEWHAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WITH WELL-
MIXED CONDITIONS IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY.
GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
HELPING TO BRING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GETTING DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. IN THE ADKS...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EAST...DECREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NRN NY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS
AS MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING WAVE MOVES EAST...EXITING ERN VT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. IF THESE COLDER TEMPS IN THE ADKS
COINCIDE WITH WIND SPEEDS THAT TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...WIND
CHILLS MAY FALL TO COLDER THAN -20F...AND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED. AT THE SUMMITS TEMPS WILL BE EVEN COLDER WITH 850MB WIND
OF 20-30KTS LEADING TO EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILLS.
DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
AREA...BUT A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE OUT OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
TO MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL WARM TEMPS MONDAY NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY REACHING THE 20S-L30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EST SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF MODEL HAVING A
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT... WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS THIS FEATURE ALREADY APPROACHING
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER EMF
SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. EMF AND GFS MODELS
SHOWING A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION
WILL SEE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING... SO WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. EMF
AND GFS MODELS BOTH SHOWING A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION BY 18Z FRIDAY. SO PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE LOWER
THAN THE SUPER- BLEND GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY...AS BOTH THE EMF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALREADY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z FRIDAY. GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING...THIS WILL ALSO
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS
MOS EXTENDED FORECAST GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT LOWER MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TILL 00Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AS
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
942 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TURNING COLDER ON NORTH WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN
MOST VALLEY AREAS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL ARRIVE EARLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EST SUNDAY...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA HAS
INDUCED N-NW WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. LATEST RAP INDICATES 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C AT
14Z...PROGGED TO DROP TO -17 TO -18C BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SKIES
HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WEST...WITH LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NERN
VT...INCLUDING AT MORRISVILLE AND NEWPORT. WILL MAINTAIN BROKEN
CLOUD COVER ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE WILL HELP OFFSET LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
SOMEWHAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WITH WELL-
MIXED CONDITIONS IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY.
GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
HELPING TO BRING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GETTING DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. IN THE ADKS...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EAST...DECREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NRN NY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS
AS MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING WAVE MOVES EAST...EXITING ERN VT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. IF THESE COLDER TEMPS IN THE ADKS
COINCIDE WITH WIND SPEEDS THAT TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...WIND
CHILLS MAY FALL TO COLDER THAN -20F...AND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED. AT THE SUMMITS TEMPS WILL BE EVEN COLDER WITH 850MB WIND
OF 20-30KTS LEADING TO EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILLS.
DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
AREA...BUT A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE OUT OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
TO MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL WARM TEMPS MONDAY NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY REACHING THE 20S-L30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EST SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF MODEL HAVING A
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT... WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS THIS FEATURE ALREADY APPROACHING
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER EMF
SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. EMF AND GFS MODELS
SHOWING A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION
WILL SEE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING... SO WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. EMF
AND GFS MODELS BOTH SHOWING A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION BY 18Z FRIDAY. SO PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE LOWER
THAN THE SUPER- BLEND GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY...AS BOTH THE EMF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALREADY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z FRIDAY. GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING...THIS WILL ALSO
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS
MOS EXTENDED FORECAST GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT LOWER MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA 969 MB OFF THE
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND BY 00Z MONDAY. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL BE AREAS OF
UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...WITH AREAS OF
IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY AFTER 14Z SUNDAY TIL 00Z
MONDAY. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KNOTS AFTER 00Z MONDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
AS SKIES BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1256 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY SLOW TO RISE IN PERSISTENT CLOUDY
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. SO HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOUT
3 TO 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE CENTRAL. THIS ALSO EFFECT THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND THE RESULTANT PRECIP TYPE...YIELDING LESS RAIN
AND MORE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER AMOUNTS STILL
APPEAR LIGHT AND SO FAR HAVE SEEN VERY LITTLE PRECIP SHOWING UP
AT THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
DUAL POL RADAR RETURNS SHOW NEARLY UNIFORM HYDROMETEORS WHICH
SUGGEST RETURNS COULD BE SNOW ALOFT WHICH SHOWS UP AT ESTEVAN.
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY SURFACE REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET YET BUT
THE FOUR BEARS BRIDGE NDOT SITE SUGGEST SOME FREEZING ROAD SURFACE
CONDITIONS. THE RAP MODEL IS PRETTY WARM AT H850...WHICH MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST WITH THE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO CURRENT GRIDS SEEM
TO BE PARSED OUT WELL WITH SNOW NORTHWEST AND FREEZING RAIN WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE THIS THINKING UNTIL SURFACE
OBS SHOW SOME GROUND TRUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR IN EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES. A FEW
LOCATIONS REPORTING SOME LIGHT SNOW UNDER THE INITIAL WARM
ADVECTION BAND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SO EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THIS
MORNING. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH FOG REPORTED IN HETTINGER...DICKINSON AND NOW GLEN ULLIN.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOOK IN LINE. LATEST HRRR/RAP INDICATE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MONTANA. CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. FARTHER WEST LOW
CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER HAVE PERSISTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WERE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH
EXTENDED FROM ALBERTA SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO CENTRAL
WYOMING.
THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND REACH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY EVENING BEFORE
EXITING EAST TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH...THEN BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEN WESTERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT VORTICITY AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. TONIGHT THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHIFT TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
A COMPLICATED TEMPERATURE PROFILE SETS UP AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. LOOKING AT NAM AND GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE COULD SEE A MIX OF
MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NORTH CENTRAL WOULD LIKELY SEE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET - BUT CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SMALL DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER BY EVENING WITH THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A MIX OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING...WITH
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE/PLACEMENT. THE TIMING
OF THE WARM AIR MOVING IN WILL AFFECT THIS GREATLY. DECIDED TO KEEP
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBILITIES. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST AS PRECIPITATION
OCCURS TO DETERMINE A TREND IN PRECIPITATION TYPE/EXTENT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD (MONDAY-TUESDAY) DRY...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BREEZY AT TIMES WITH A
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. CAN NOT RULE OUT A SPOTTY RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH...AS IMPULSES RACE THROUGH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
FOLLOWED BY A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIPITATION (RAIN OR
SNOW) ALONG AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WED DAYTIME...FOLLOWED BY A
SHOT OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE ARE SOME
PRETTY BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH...KEEPING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE STATE. THE
GFS/GLOBAL GEM BOTH DEPICT A DRY SLOT AFTER THE INITIAL WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...THEN BRING THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME PERIOD (WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING) FOR BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM
DEPICT STRONG GRADIENT FORCING COMBINED WITH THE WRAP AROUND SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD FOR THURSDAY...ABOUT 10-15F DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS
FORECAST MONDAY-WED.
LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK...THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. RESULTANT WEATHER
WITH THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMALS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP ANY STRONG
STORM SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
AS WAVES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
AT NOON CST...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
WILL MOVE EAST AND DRAG A WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 04Z. TONIGHT THE WAR FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
958 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
DUAL POL RADAR RETURNS SHOW NEARLY UNIFORM HYDROMETEORS WHICH
SUGGEST RETURNS COULD BE SNOW ALOFT WHICH SHOWS UP AT ESTEVAN.
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY SURFACE REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET YET BUT
THE FOUR BEARS BRIDGE NDOT SITE SUGGEST SOME FREEZING ROAD SURFACE
CONDITIONS. THE RAP MODEL IS PRETTY WARM AT H850...WHICH MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST WITH THE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO CURRENT GRIDS SEEM
TO BE PARSED OUT WELL WITH SNOW NORTHWEST AND FREEZING RAIN WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE THIS THINKING UNTIL SURFACE
OBS SHOW SOME GROUND TRUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR IN EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES. A FEW
LOCATIONS REPORTING SOME LIGHT SNOW UNDER THE INITIAL WARM
ADVECTION BAND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SO EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THIS
MORNING. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH FOG REPORTED IN HETTINGER...DICKINSON AND NOW GLEN ULLIN.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOOK IN LINE. LATEST HRRR/RAP INDICATE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MONTANA. CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. FARTHER WEST LOW
CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER HAVE PERSISTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WERE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH
EXTENDED FROM ALBERTA SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO CENTRAL
WYOMING.
THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND REACH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY EVENING BEFORE
EXITING EAST TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH...THEN BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEN WESTERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT VORTICITY AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. TONIGHT THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHIFT TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
A COMPLICATED TEMPERATURE PROFILE SETS UP AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. LOOKING AT NAM AND GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE COULD SEE A MIX OF
MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NORTH CENTRAL WOULD LIKELY SEE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET - BUT CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SMALL DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER BY EVENING WITH THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A MIX OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING...WITH
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE/PLACEMENT. THE TIMING
OF THE WARM AIR MOVING IN WILL AFFECT THIS GREATLY. DECIDED TO KEEP
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBILITIES. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST AS PRECIPITATION
OCCURS TO DETERMINE A TREND IN PRECIPITATION TYPE/EXTENT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD (MONDAY-TUESDAY) DRY...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BREEZY AT TIMES WITH A
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. CAN NOT RULE OUT A SPOTTY RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH...AS IMPULSES RACE THROUGH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
FOLLOWED BY A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIPITATION (RAIN OR
SNOW) ALONG AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WED DAYTIME...FOLLOWED BY A
SHOT OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE ARE SOME
PRETTY BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH...KEEPING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE STATE. THE
GFS/GLOBAL GEM BOTH DEPICT A DRY SLOT AFTER THE INITIAL WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...THEN BRING THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME PERIOD (WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING) FOR BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM
DEPICT STRONG GRADIENT FORCING COMBINED WITH THE WRAP AROUND SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD FOR THURSDAY...ABOUT 10-15F DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS
FORECAST MONDAY-WED.
LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK...THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. RESULTANT WEATHER
WITH THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMALS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP ANY STRONG
STORM SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
AS WAVES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
MULTIPLE CHALLENGES AND HAZARDS TO AVIATION TODAY. AT 9 AM CST...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA. RADAR INDICATED PRECIPITATION
WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN KISN-KMOT.
ALSO A LARGE AREA OF IFR CEILINGS WERE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WIDELY SCATTERED MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET POSSIBLE KDIK-KBIS-KJMS WITH MAINLY SNOW KMOT...AND
RAIN/SNOW KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
THE FORECAST IS BASICALLY ON TRACK. CLOUDS HAVE BACKED TO THE
VALLEY. THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE 925MB-850MB RH HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE SITUATION...AND WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SKY FORECAST. THE
CURRENT CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY OR MOVE SLIGHTLY WEST OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE. NOT SURE THIS WILL
HAVE ANY AFFECT ON MIN TEMPS (JUST HOURLY TEMPS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS)...AND WILL RIDE WITH THE CURRENT TEMP FORECAST.
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN SIMILAR
WITH PAST MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...THE 21Z SREF HAS COME IN WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
A BAND OF NEAR 6 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
FACT THERE WILL BE A UPPER JET STREAK...NOSE OF A 40-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET...AND WEAK TO MODERATE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS. THE ONLY
PROBLEM IS THAT MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE DEPICTING EXACTLY
WHERE THIS RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
LOCATED. WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATED SNOW TOTAL MAP ON FACEBOOK...BUT
ONLY MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR 6 INCH AMOUNTS. OVERALL IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY EAST OF THE VALLEY. WILL ALSO NEED TO
CONTINUE AND MONITOR WIND POTENTIAL WITHIN THE VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL (ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK AREA).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED THROUGH THE FCST AREA ATTM WITH NORTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH TO
NEARLY FARGO. EXPECT CLEARING TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AS COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN BY 12Z SUN. WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPS AND
SKY COVER TONIGHT. ATTM EXPECT A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO DVL BASIN ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS. THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA MAY HANG ON TO
SOME THIN STRATOCU AND THUS CONTINUED IDEA OF A BIT WARMER THERE.
NEXT SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE TODAY IN THE PAC NORTHWEST. EXPECT A
SHARP 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG 850 MB WARM ADVECTION PRECEDING IT. ENOUGH FORCING AND
MOISTURE TO GENERATE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DROPPING A
QUICK 1-3 INCHES RRV AND WEST AND 3-4 EAST OF THE RRV. ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SYSTEM OVER MINNESOTA FCST AREA IF AMOUNTS
REMAIN AS FCST. BUT SINCE EVENT IS PAST 00Z MON TOO EARLY TO DO
SO. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 KTS AND THIS WILL
CAUSE SOME BLSN ISSUES...BUT BLSN 1/2SM TOOL GIVES LOW
PERCENTAGES. BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN IN MANY CASES WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR AN OVER-PERFORMING WIND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
SNOW WILL END IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AS WARMER 925-850 MB AIRMASS MOVES IN.
DESPITE DEEP SNOWCOVER EXPECT DECENT SUN AND GIVEN TIME OF YEAR
HIGHS IN THE 30S SHOULD BE REASONABLE...NR 40 IN THE SOUTHWEST AS
OFTEN THESE WEST WINDS OVER ACHIEVE. THOUGH WOULD LIKE TO SEE 925
MB TEMPS A BIT WARMER...AS IT IS PROGGED TO PEAK 0C IN THE NORTH
AND 4C IN THE SOUTH.
MILD AIRMASS REMAINS INTO MON NIGHT-TUESDAY THOUGH 925 MB TEMPS
COOL A BIT TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH AND WINDS
TURN MORE NORTHWEST. COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP IN LAKE OF
THE WOODS REGION.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. ZONAL PATTERN FORECAST TO AMPLIFY. GFS
WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
BEEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS.
WILL TRIM BACK POPS IN THE EAST ON WED. ALSO WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON
FRI NIGHT AND SAT. RESPECTABLE WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THU .
INSIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS SINCE THE LAST RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
MVFR CIGS EAST OF THE VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE
AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THIS AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND GUSTY. THIS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW WITHIN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. THEN...SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES SUNDAY
EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/DK
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
540 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN SOME DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
IF I-76 WHILE SNOW IS FLARING UP AGAIN NEAR CLEVELAND AS THE NEXT
PUSH OF MOISTURE SEEN MOVING SE ON THE DTX RADAR ARRIVES. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CARRY SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF NE OHIO
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY REALLY
DECREASING TOWARDS 9 PM AS THE RUC SHOWS MOISTURE DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY AFTER THAT TIME. COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT...WHILE AREAS FURTHER INLAND WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS. CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED NORTH OF
LAKE ERIE AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH SO THERE WILL BE
AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF THE LOW NOW OVER VIRGINIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE LOW
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOW OVER MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. LAST LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA WILL
END THIS EVENING...THOUGH COULD STILL SEE A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. HIGH FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER FORECAST AREA
TOWARD MIDNIGHT LOCAL. AS IT DOES CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN. OF
COURSE CLOUDS FROM NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM ALREADY INTO WRN INDIANA
SO DO NOT THINK SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW WILL START QUIET ENOUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BUT
THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PANHANDLE LOW
OVERNIGHT...THEN TRACK IT NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO TOMORROW EVENING AND
THEN LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT ITS EXACT
TRACK BUT IT APPEARS THAT MODELS ARE TRACKING LOW ACROSS WESTERN
OHIO. SNOW AMOUNTS STILL HOVERING CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
3 TO 5 INCHES. AS QUICKLY AS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE...AND WITH
THE CURRENT TRACK ACROSS LAKE ERIE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. AREAS OF NE OH AND
NW PA COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS WITH SO MUCH DOUBT AS TO THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE LOW.
THIS STORM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO
GENERATE SOME SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS SIMILAR ON MOST OF THE
MODELS AND IS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ON A FRONT CROSSING THE MIDWEST. WE REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE LOW WITH RAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THUNDER IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND GET THAT SPECIFIC
WITH THE FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND RAIN WILL POSE A
FLOOD RISK AS WELL AS AN ICE JAM RISK ON THE OUR SLOWER AND COLDER
WATERWAYS. BY FRIDAY THE LOW GETS ABSORBED IN THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE GEM DEVELOPS A SECOND WAVE ON THE FRONT
AND IS SLOWER TO END THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NE OH/NW PA ON FRIDAY
AND WILL WATCH TO SEE IF THIS TREND DEVELOPS ON ANY OF THE OTHER
PROMINENT MODELS.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND MOST
MODELS BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH LATER SATURDAY...THEN
DEVELOP A WAVE ON THE FRONT TO OUR EAST. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERHAPS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. THE ECMWF RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS A FULL BLOWN SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND IS AN
OUTLIER. THE FORECAST WILL KEEP SATURDAY MILD THEN BRING COLDER
WEATHER BACK BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR. WITH THE NNW FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...A FEW LAKE ENHANCED PATCHES OF SNOW COULD
LINGER NE OH/NW PA UNTIL EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN TONIGHT WITH CLEARING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO TUESDAY. NON- IFR
LIKELY REDEVELOPING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ACTIVE THIS WEEK WITH
STRONGER WINDS AND WIND SHIFTS ON LAKE ERIE.
NORTH WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BECOME RATHER BRISK MONDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE WESTERN BASIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GOES BY ON MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD SEE 25 TO 30
KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT COMES QUICK...WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND WINDS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH CHANCE TO SETTLE DOWN. THERE
COULD BE A BREAK FOR A SHORT TIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONGER AND WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH 25 TO PERHAPS 30 KNOTS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...THE ICE WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SHIFT AND MOVE LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/KEC
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
1001 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING AS NW OREGON IS
BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE NEXT STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE WIND AND
HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS PLENTY OF CASCADE SNOW. A MUCH COOLER AND
SHOWERY PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE THIRD FRONT EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS LIKELY DROPPING INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM UPDATE...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE NON-PRECIPITATION
WARNINGS AND THE WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.
ALTHOUGH THE WIND TONIGHT WILL BE LESS CONVECTIVE DRIVEN THAN THE
FRONT LAST NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INLAND AGAIN IN
THE VALLEY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND WIND GUSTS MAY
RESULT IN MINOR DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES TO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
HAVE CONVERTED THE WINTER WEATHER WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN OREGON
CASCADES TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH AND THINK THE SW
WASHINGTON CASCADES WILL GET THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW AND THE WARNING
LOOKS GOOD THERE. THE OREGON CASCADES WILL ALSO GET A GOOD DUMPING OF
SNOW BUT THE SNOW WILL HAVE A LESS DURATION FOR THE OREGON CASCADES
COMPARED TO WASHINGTON AND EXPECT LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED THE CASCADES OF LANE COUNTY INTO THE ADVISORY. EXPECT THE
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES WILL HAVE HIGH-END ADVISORY AMOUNTS...AROUND
7 TO 10 INCHES...WHEREAS THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES WILL HAVE LOW-END
ADVISORY AMOUNTS 5 TO 8 INCHES.
ALSO MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND SKY FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON SINCE THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
HARTLEY
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS MAINTAINING MODERATE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE HAVE A BIT OF KICK WITH
THEM...PRODUCING QUARTER TO EVEN HALF INCH HAIL AS REPORTED NEAR
NEWPORT EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD START TO EASE SOME
AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW SHOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAK AND SHORT LIVED RIDGING BUILDS. QUICK ON ITS
HEELS IS A WARM FRONT OFFSHORE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE S WA
CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FEET HAS BEEN GOING WELL...WITH SURPRISE LAKES
SNOTEL SHOWING ABOUT 12" OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. SNOW LEVELS HAVE COME
DOWN WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND THIS IS ALSO
THE CASE IN THE OREGON CASCADES WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 2-5" HAS FALLEN.
SNOW LEVELS CONFIRMED BY OBS TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000
FEET. SNOW ACCUMS THIS MORNING WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE...AND THUS
WILL NOT ADD ANY ADVISORIES BUT EXPECT SNOW AT THE PASSES.
NOW ANY TIME YOU HAVE RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW AND STRONG
UPPER JET WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
RIDE ALONG THESE ZONES AND CAN BE CHALLENGING TO KNOW QUITE WHERE
THEY HEAD ONSHORE. WE WON`T BE SEEING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS TAKING
PLACE LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY WITH A DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
AND THUS ANY SURFACE LOWS WILL BE WEAKER...BUT CAN LOCALLY ENHANCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. BUT WE WILL HAVE SEVERAL
DECENT WAVES PASSING BY ALONG AND TO OUR NORTH. THE LEAD WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAYS...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP WITH THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND SEVERAL
TO FOLLOW THIS WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN TIER.
THEREFORE OUR HIGHEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM INITIALLY IS THE WINDS.
I LIKE THE EVENING SHIFTS EARLIER THOUGHTS ON THIS. 925/950MB FLOW IN
THE COASTAL JET WERE DEPICTED AT 83/73KT RESPECTIVELY. THE FLOW
YESTERDAY WAS ALSO MARKEDLY STABLE IN THE WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME.
TODAY WE ARE AND WILL REMAIN QUITE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE. STABILITY
WILL WEAKEN SOME AS THE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE PASSES THROUGH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND SO THE LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT SOME BLOCKING AND
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT. WE DO SEE SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE STILL EASILY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT THE EXTREME WINDS FOUND ON THE HEADLANDS YESTERDAY
WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT. THAT SAID THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE
MORE PRONE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF MORE SOUTHWESTERLY HIGH WINDS. HIGH
WIND WATCH IS UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING BELOW
HIGH WINDS...THOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE THERE TOO. AS FOR STRONGER WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE GRADIENTS SUN/SUN NIGHT.
NONETHELESS...THE 00Z UW WRFGFS RUN SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 40-50 KT
GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUN EVENING. THE RAP SHOWS THE
GRADIENT GETTING A BIT LESS SOUTHEASTERLY AND TARGETS THE CENTRAL
VALLEY FROM SALEM NORTH TO THE SOUTH METRO AREA OF PORTLAND. THE GFS
HINTS AT THIS TOO BUT IT IS LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IT
ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE INDIVIDUAL SURFACE LOWS TRACK.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SIMILAR VALUES TO THOSE SEEN YESTERDAY AND THERE
WERE ONLY A FEW GUSTS THAT REACHED OVER 45 MPH. COULD GO EITHER WAY
AND IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK TO SEE IF
ANY SMALLER SCALE LOWS FORM THAT WILL HELP TO ORIENT THE GRADIENT.
FOR NOW WILL MENTION 40-45 MPH. THE THEME IS WINDIER CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS.
THE NEXT IMPACT WILL THEN BE FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTER A PERIOD
OF MODEST RAINFALL WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PORTION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
WHEN THE WINDS START TO REALLY PICKUP...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES. THIS IS NOT YOUR CLASSIC
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SITUATION WITH SUPER HIGH PW VALUES. BUT WHAT THIS
SYSTEM IS LACKING FROM IN MOISTURE...IT MAY MAKE UP ENOUGH IN A
STRONGER FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AND ALSO BETTER LAPSE RATES
WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE MODELS IDEA OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA WILL BE FIRMLY ROOTED IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOW LOOKING AT
THE 4KM EMC WRF REFLECTIVITY DEPICTS A VERY INTENSE BAND OF RAINFALL
WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WE FIRST GET IN ON A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN THE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS POINTED
NORTH OF THE AREA INITIALLY IN THE EVENING. IT IS ORIENTED PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND THUS THIS BAND WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING
INITIALLY IT WILL THEN SAG SOUTH AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
NEAR...WHICH MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS STARTING TO
OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING OUR FOCUS TO NOT ONLY POTENTIAL
RIVER FLOODING FOR S WA AND N OR COASTAL RIVERS...BUT THESE RATES ARE
CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF URBAN AND STREET FLOODING. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER..ALL IT WILL TAKE IS A 1-3 INCH EVENT TO CAUSE AT LEAST A
COUPLE RIVERS TO COME CLOSE TO FLOOD IF NOT GET OVER. AND THERE ARE
SEVERAL WAVES THAT WILL BE RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THAT WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ON THE SAME AREAS WHEREAS THIS WAS NOT THE CASE
ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT IN WATCHING AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. WITH THE STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW...SOME OF
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SHIELD THE VALLEY A BIT...BUT WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE PASSING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY/SQUALLY TYPE PRECIPITATION EVEN FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE RIGHT DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
MEANWHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL FINALLY GET A SOLID DUMPING OF SNOWFALL.
HAVE UPGRADED THE S WA CASCADES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR 1-2 FT
OF SNOW. HAVE LEFT THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES IN A WATCH...AS IT IS
NOT CLEAR HOW HEAVY THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. THAT
BEING SAID MONDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF PRETTY HEAVY SNOW
WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1" PER HOUR...BUT WILL NEED TO SEE HOW LONG
THIS LAST AS THE PRECIP AXIS EASES AS YOU HEAD SOUTH. TOTALS STILL
LOOK TO APPROACH 1 FOOT IN SPOTS...POSSIBLY A BIT MORE.
THE FRONT CLEARS LATER MONDAY FOR A BREAK BUT ANOTHER WET SYSTEM IS
ON ITS HEELS FOR TUESDAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY BY
TUESDAY NIGHT./KMD
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FEW SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN WET AND COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM IS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER AND MORE
SHOWERS...DROPPING SLOW LEVELS TO 800 TO 1000 FT. A BUILDING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AND LIKELY LEADING TO
A PERIOD OF DRYING. 27/KMD
&&
.AVIATION...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS NEAR 5000 FT
AND A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT SYSTEM WILL PUSH
INTO REGION AFTER 18Z ON COAST...AND AFTER 20Z INLAND AS RAIN AND
MVFR CIGS INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS AREA. WILL SEE S WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT DEVELOP AFTER 20Z TODAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS. AS FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE INCREASING
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN. SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED
THIS EVENING. /27
&&
.MARINE...SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF SUB GALE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
WIDESPREAD GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOLID SOUTHERLY GALES AGAIN BY
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COASTAL JET WILL DEVELOP
EARLY THIS EVENING PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE INNER WATERS BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET 50+ KT GUSTS AND HAVE DECIDED
TO LIMIT THE STORM WARNING TO THE INNER WATERS WHILE MAINTAINING
THE GALES FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS CURRENTLY 15 TO 18 FT. WITH INCREASED WINDS LATER...SEAS
WILL BUILD. LIKELY CLOSE TO 20 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EASILY
20 TO 25 FT THIS EVENING. MAY GET BRIEF TIMES OF 25 TO 30 FT SEAS
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS RATHER LOW ON THE SPECIFICS. SEAS SUBSIDE
BELOW 20 FT MON AM.
ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEMS...ALBEIT WEAKER...WILL IMPACT THE REGION
NEXT WEEK...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY. THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD KEEP SEAS WELL ABOVE 10 FT FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SEAS POSSIBLY PUSHING 20 FT AT TIMES.
JBONK/NEUROCKMANEZ
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON
COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH
OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM MONDAY FOR CASCADES
LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST MONDAY
FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON
COAST-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.
WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR
GREATER VANCOUVER AREA.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
MONDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
PST MONDAY.
STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
OR OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PORTLAND OR
542 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2014
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS
BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES.EXPECT DECREASING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT. THE NEXT STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN...AS
WELL AS PLENTY OF CASCADE SNOW. A MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE THIRD FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH SNOW
LEVELS LIKELY DROPPING INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS MAINTAINING MODERATE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE HAVE A BIT OF KICK WITH
THEM...PRODUCING QUARTER TO EVEN HALF INCH HAIL AS REPORTED NEAR
NEWPORT EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD START TO EASE SOME
AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW SHOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAK AND SHORT LIVED RIDGING BUILDS. QUICK ON ITS
HEELS IS A WARM FRONT OFFSHORE. THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE S WA
CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FEET HAS BEEN GOING WELL...WITH SURPRISE LAKES
SNOTEL SHOWING ABOUT 12" OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. SNOW LEVELS HAVE COME
DOWN WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND THIS IS ALSO
THE CASE IN THE OREGON CASCADES WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 2-5" HAS FALLEN.
SNOW LEVELS CONFIRMED BY OBS TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000
FEET. SNOW ACCUMS THIS MORNING WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE...AND THUS
WILL NOT ADD ANY ADVISORIES BUT EXPECT SNOW AT THE PASSES.
NOW ANY TIME YOU HAVE RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW AND STRONG
UPPER JET WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
RIDE ALONG THESE ZONES AND CAN BE CHALLENGING TO KNOW QUITE WHERE
THEY HEAD ONSHORE. WE WON`T BE SEEING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS TAKING
PLACE LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY WITH A DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
AND THUS ANY SURFACE LOWS WILL BE WEAKER...BUT CAN LOCALLY ENHANCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. BUT WE WILL HAVE SEVERAL
DECENT WAVES PASSING BY ALONG AND TO OUR NORTH. THE LEAD WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAYS...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP WITH THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND SEVERAL
TO FOLLOW THIS WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN TIER.
THEREFORE OUR HIGHEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM INITIALLY IS THE WINDS.
I LIKE THE EVENING SHIFTS EARLIER THOUGHTS ON THIS. 925/950MB FLOW IN
THE COASTAL JET WERE DEPICTED AT 83/73KT RESPECTIVELY. THE FLOW
YESTERDAY WAS ALSO MARKEDLY STABLE IN THE WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME.
TODAY WE ARE AND WILL REMAIN QUITE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE. STABILITY
WILL WEAKEN SOME AS THE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE PASSES THROUGH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND SO THE LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT SOME BLOCKING AND
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT. WE DO SEE SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE STILL EASILY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT THE EXTREME WINDS FOUND ON THE HEADLANDS YESTERDAY
WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT. THAT SAID THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE
MORE PRONE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF MORE SOUTHWESTERLY HIGH WINDS. HIGH
WIND WATCH IS UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING BELOW
HIGH WINDS...THOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE THERE TOO. AS FOR STRONGER WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE GRADIENTS SUN/SUN NIGHT.
NONETHELESS...THE 00Z UW WRFGFS RUN SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 40-50 KT
GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUN EVENING. THE RAP SHOWS THE
GRADIENT GETTING A BIT LESS SOUTHEASTERLY AND TARGETS THE CENTRAL
VALLEY FROM SALEM NORTH TO THE SOUTH METRO AREA OF PORTLAND. THE GFS
HINTS AT THIS TOO BUT IT IS LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IT
ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE INDIVIDUAL SURFACE LOWS TRACK.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SIMILAR VALUES TO THOSE SEEN YESTERDAY AND THERE
WERE ONLY A FEW GUSTS THAT REACHED OVER 45 MPH. COULD GO EITHER WAY
AND IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK TO SEE IF
ANY SMALLER SCALE LOWS FORM THAT WILL HELP TO ORIENT THE GRADIENT.
FOR NOW WILL MENTION 40-45 MPH. THE THEME IS WINDIER CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS.
THE NEXT IMPACT WILL THEN BE FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTER A PERIOD
OF MODEST RAINFALL WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PORTION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
WHEN THE WINDS START TO REALLY PICKUP...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES. THIS IS NOT YOUR CLASSIC
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SITUATION WITH SUPER HIGH PW VALUES. BUT WHAT THIS
SYSTEM IS LACKING FROM IN MOISTURE...IT MAY MAKE UP ENOUGH IN A
STRONGER FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AND ALSO BETTER LAPSE RATES
WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE MODELS IDEA OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA WILL BE FIRMLY ROOTED IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOW LOOKING AT
THE 4KM EMC WRF REFLECTIVITY DEPICTS A VERY INTENSE BAND OF RAINFALL
WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WE FIRST GET IN ON A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN THE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS POINTED
NORTH OF THE AREA INITIALLY IN THE EVENING. IT IS ORIENTED PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND THUS THIS BAND WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING
INITIALLY IT WILL THEN SAG SOUTH AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
NEAR...WHICH MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS STARTING TO
OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING OUR FOCUS TO NOT ONLY POTENTIAL
RIVER FLOODING FOR S WA AND N OR COASTAL RIVERS...BUT THESE RATES ARE
CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF URBAN AND STREET FLOODING. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER..ALL IT WILL TAKE IS A 1-3 INCH EVENT TO CAUSE AT LEAST A
COUPLE RIVERS TO COME CLOSE TO FLOOD IF NOT GET OVER. AND THERE ARE
SEVERAL WAVES THAT WILL BE RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THAT WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ON THE SAME AREAS WHEREAS THIS WAS NOT THE CASE
ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT IN WATCHING AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. WITH THE STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW...SOME OF
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SHIELD THE VALLEY A BIT...BUT WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE PASSING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY/SQUALLY TYPE PRECIPITATION EVEN FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE RIGHT DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
MEANWHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL FINALLY GET A SOLID DUMPING OF SNOWFALL.
HAVE UPGRADED THE S WA CASCADES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR 1-2 FT
OF SNOW. HAVE LEFT THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES IN A WATCH...AS IT IS
NOT CLEAR HOW HEAVY THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. THAT
BEING SAID MONDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF PRETTY HEAVY SNOW
WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1" PER HOUR...BUT WILL NEED TO SEE HOW LONG
THIS LAST AS THE PRECIP AXIS EASES AS YOU HEAD SOUTH. TOTALS STILL
LOOK TO APPROACH 1 FOOT IN SPOTS...POSSIBLY A BIT MORE.
THE FRONT CLEARS LATER MONDAY FOR A BREAK BUT ANOTHER WET SYSTEM IS
ON ITS HEELS FOR TUESDAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY BY
TUESDAY NIGHT./KMD
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FEW SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN WET AND COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM IS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER AND MORE
SHOWERS...DROPPING SLOW LEVELS TO 800 TO 1000 FT. A BUILDING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AND LIKELY LEADING TO
A PERIOD OF DRYING. 27/KMD
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF PACKAGE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS UNDER POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY CONDITIONS. VFR EXCEPT UNDER A
DIRECT HIT FROM A MODERATE SHOWER. THERE HAVE BEEN PUBLIC REPORTS OF
HAIL WITHIN THE SOME SHOWERS BUT SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY FOR
INDIVIDUAL TAF TERMINALS IS RATHER LOW. A RELATIVE LULL FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE A WARM FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE FRONT
NEARS...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND ENHANCE SOUTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45 KT OCCURRING EARLY EVENING AT KAST AND KONP.
INLAND TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT...AGAIN MAINLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CIGS
FALLING BELOW MVFR THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. ALSO SEEMS LIKE WINDS
WILL KEEP REASONABLE VSBYS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL BRIEF MVFR UNDER
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING DECREASING CIGS ALONG WITH THE RAIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND THREATEN CROSSWIND LIMITS FOR THE
10/28 RUNWAYS.
/JBONK
&&
.MARINE...SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF SUB GALE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
WIDESPREAD GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOLID SOUTHERLY GALES AGAIN BY
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COASTAL JET WILL DEVELOP
EARLY THIS EVENING PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE INNER WATERS BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET 50+ KT GUSTS AND HAVE DECIDED
TO LIMIT THE STORM WARNING TO THE INNER WATERS WHILE MAINTAINING
THE GALES FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS CURRENTLY 15 TO 18 FT. WITH INCREASED WINDS LATER...SEAS
WILL BUILD. LIKELY CLOSE TO 20 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EASILY
20 TO 25 FT THIS EVENING. MAY GET BRIEF TIMES OF 25 TO 30 FT SEAS
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS RATHER LOW ON THE SPECIFICS. SEAS SUBSIDE
BELOW 20 FT MON AM.
ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEMS...ALBEIT WEAKER...WILL IMPACT THE REGION
NEXT WEEK...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY. THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD KEEP SEAS WELL ABOVE 10 FT FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SEAS POSSIBLY PUSHING 20 FT AT TIMES.
JBONK/NEUROCKMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON
COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH
OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST MONDAY
FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON
COAST-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.
WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
PST MONDAY.
STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
OR OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
345 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS
BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES.EXPECT DECREASING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT. THE NEXT STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN...AS
WELL AS PLENTY OF CASCADE SNOW. A MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE THIRD FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH SNOW
LEVELS LIKELY DROPPING INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS MAINTAINING MODERATE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE HAVE A BIT OF KICK WITH
THEM...PRODUCING QUARTER TO EVEN HALF INCH HAIL AS REPORTED NEAR
NEWPORT EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD START TO EASE SOME
AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW SHOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAK AND SHORT LIVED RIDGING BUILDS. QUICK ON ITS
HEELS IS A WARM FRONT OFFSHORE. THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE S WA
CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FEET HAS BEEN GOING WELL...WITH SURPRISE LAKES
SNOTEL SHOWING ABOUT 12" OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. SNOW LEVELS HAVE COME
DOWN WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND THIS IS ALSO
THE CASE IN THE OREGON CASCADES WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 2-5" HAS FALLEN.
SNOW LEVELS CONFIRMED BY OBS TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000
FEET. SNOW ACCUMS THIS MORNING WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE...AND THUS
WILL NOT ADD ANY ADVISORIES BUT EXPECT SNOW AT THE PASSES.
NOW ANY TIME YOU HAVE RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW AND STRONG
UPPER JET WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
RIDE ALONG THESE ZONES AND CAN BE CHALLENGING TO KNOW QUITE WHERE
THEY HEAD ONSHORE. WE WON`T BE SEEING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS TAKING
PLACE LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY WITH A DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
AND THUS ANY SURFACE LOWS WILL BE WEAKER...BUT CAN LOCALLY ENHANCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. BUT WE WILL HAVE SEVERAL
DECENT WAVES PASSING BY ALONG AND TO OUR NORTH. THE LEAD WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAYS...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP WITH THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND SEVERAL
TO FOLLOW THIS WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN TIER.
THEREFORE OUR HIGHEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM INITIALLY IS THE WINDS.
I LIKE THE EVENING SHIFTS EARLIER THOUGHTS ON THIS. 925/950MB FLOW IN
THE COASTAL JET WERE DEPICTED AT 83/73KT RESPECTIVELY. THE FLOW
YESTERDAY WAS ALSO MARKEDLY STABLE IN THE WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME.
TODAY WE ARE AND WILL REMAIN QUITE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE. STABILITY
WILL WEAKEN SOME AS THE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE PASSES THROUGH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND SO THE LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT SOME BLOCKING AND
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT. WE DO SEE SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE STILL EASILY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT THE EXTREME WINDS FOUND ON THE HEADLANDS YESTERDAY
WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT. THAT SAID THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE
MORE PRONE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF MORE SOUTHWESTERLY HIGH WINDS. HIGH
WIND WATCH IS UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING BELOW
HIGH WINDS...THOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE THERE TOO. AS FOR STRONGER WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE GRADIENTS SUN/SUN NIGHT.
NONETHELESS...THE 00Z UW WRFGFS RUN SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 40-50 KT
GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUN EVENING. THE RAP SHOWS THE
GRADIENT GETTING A BIT LESS SOUTHEASTERLY AND TARGETS THE CENTRAL
VALLEY FROM SALEM NORTH TO THE SOUTH METRO AREA OF PORTLAND. THE GFS
HINTS AT THIS TOO BUT IT IS LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IT
ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE INDIVIDUAL SURFACE LOWS TRACK.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SIMILAR VALUES TO THOSE SEEN YESTERDAY AND THERE
WERE ONLY A FEW GUSTS THAT REACHED OVER 45 MPH. COULD GO EITHER WAY
AND IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK TO SEE IF
ANY SMALLER SCALE LOWS FORM THAT WILL HELP TO ORIENT THE GRADIENT.
FOR NOW WILL MENTION 40-45 MPH. THE THEME IS WINDIER CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS.
THE NEXT IMPACT WILL THEN BE FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTER A PERIOD
OF MODEST RAINFALL WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PORTION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
WHEN THE WINDS START TO REALLY PICKUP...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES. THIS IS NOT YOUR CLASSIC
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SITUATION WITH SUPER HIGH PW VALUES. BUT WHAT THIS
SYSTEM IS LACKING FROM IN MOISTURE...IT MAY MAKE UP ENOUGH IN A
STRONGER FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AND ALSO BETTER LAPSE RATES
WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE MODELS IDEA OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA WILL BE FIRMLY ROOTED IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOW LOOKING AT
THE 4KM EMC WRF REFLECTIVITY DEPICTS A VERY INTENSE BAND OF RAINFALL
WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WE FIRST GET IN ON A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN THE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS POINTED
NORTH OF THE AREA INITIALLY IN THE EVENING. IT IS ORIENTED PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND THUS THIS BAND WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING
INITIALLY IT WILL THEN SAG SOUTH AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
NEAR...WHICH MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS STARTING TO
OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING OUR FOCUS TO NOT ONLY POTENTIAL
RIVER FLOODING FOR S WA AND N OR COASTAL RIVERS...BUT THESE RATES ARE
CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF URBAN AND STREET FLOODING. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER..ALL IT WILL TAKE IS A 1-3 INCH EVENT TO CAUSE AT LEAST A
COUPLE RIVERS TO COME CLOSE TO FLOOD IF NOT GET OVER. AND THERE ARE
SEVERAL WAVES THAT WILL BE RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THAT WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ON THE SAME AREAS WHEREAS THIS WAS NOT THE CASE
ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT IN WATCHING AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. WITH THE STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW...SOME OF
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SHIELD THE VALLEY A BIT...BUT WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE PASSING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY/SQUALLY TYPE PRECIPITATION EVEN FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE RIGHT DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
MEANWHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL FINALLY GET A SOLID DUMPING OF SNOWFALL.
HAVE UPGRADED THE S WA CASCADES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR 1-2 FT
OF SNOW. HAVE LEFT THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES IN A WATCH...AS IT IS
NOT CLEAR HOW HEAVY THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. THAT
BEING SAID MONDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF PRETTY HEAVY SNOW
WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1" PER HOUR...BUT WILL NEED TO SEE HOW LONG
THIS LAST AS THE PRECIP AXIS EASES AS YOU HEAD SOUTH. TOTALS STILL
LOOK TO APPROACH 1 FOOT IN SPOTS...POSSIBLY A BIT MORE.
THE FRONT CLEARS LATER MONDAY FOR A BREAK BUT ANOTHER WET SYSTEM IS
ON ITS HEELS FOR TUESDAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY BY
TUESDAY NIGHT./KMD
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FEW SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN WET AND COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM IS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER AND MORE
SHOWERS...DROPPING SLOW LEVELS TO 800 TO 1000 FT. A BUILDING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AND LIKELY LEADING TO
A PERIOD OF DRYING. 27/KMD
&&
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 06Z TAF PACKAGE. MIX OF VFR
WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS UNDER SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SUN
AM. WILL HAVE ISOLATED TS NEAR THE COAST AT TIMES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL PUSH INTO REGION AFTER 18Z ON COAST...AND AFTER 20Z INLAND AS
RAIN AND MVFR INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS AREA. WILL SEE GUSTY S
WINDS DEVELOP AFTER 18Z SUN.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR TONIGHT AND SUN AM...WITH
OCCASIONAL BRIEF MVFR UNDER SHOWERS. AS FRONT APPROACHES ON SUN
AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE INCREASING MVFR AND RAIN. ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF SUB GALE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
WIDESPREAD GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOLID SOUTHERLY GALES AGAIN BY
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COASTAL JET WILL DEVELOP
EARLY THIS EVENING PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE INNER WATERS BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET 50+ KT GUSTS AND HAVE DECIDED
TO LIMIT THE STORM WARNING TO THE INNER WATERS WHILE MAINTAINING
THE GALES FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS CURRENTLY 15 TO 18 FT. WITH INCREASED WINDS LATER...SEAS
WILL BUILD. LIKELY CLOSE TO 20 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EASILY
20 TO 25 FT THIS EVENING. MAY GET BRIEF TIMES OF 25 TO 30 FT SEAS
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS RATHER LOW ON THE SPECIFICS. SEAS SUBSIDE
BELOW 20 FT MON AM.
ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEMS...ALBEIT WEAKER...WILL IMPACT THE REGION
NEXT WEEK...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY. THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD KEEP SEAS WELL ABOVE 10 FT FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SEAS POSSIBLY PUSHING 20 FT AT TIMES.
JBONK/NEUROCKMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON
COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH
OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST MONDAY
FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON
COAST-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.
WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
PST MONDAY.
STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
OR OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
925 PM MST SAT FEB 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST SAT FEB 15 2014
LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW BAND OF ST FROM K2WX TO KVTN SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO WEAK NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. 21Z
SREF AS WELL AS 00Z NAM/03Z RAP PICK UP ON THIS TREND...PUSHING
DECK ANOTHER 75 MILES OR SO. SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST UPDATED TO INCLUDE ST/PATCHY FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT FEB 15 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MN...
WITH ARCTIC BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES REGION AND A
STORM SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. STRONG UPPER JET IS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS. THESE WINDS
HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY
BEING THE MILDER DAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY TONIGHT AS CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE WARMER AIR PUSHING IN. LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEMPS LIKELY RISING LATER
TONIGHT OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA AS WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY.
SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS EARLY
IN THE DAY AND THEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES. WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD TO NEAR 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SD. SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT AND NORTHEASTERN WY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING LIFTED INDICES DROPPING CLOSE TO ZERO LATE
IN THE DAY OVER EASTERN WY...WITH EVEN A TINY AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EAST CENTRAL WY...SO IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND/OR
FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WILL
KEEP THAT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND SEE IF THAT
POTENTIAL HOLDS UP WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
OUT OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN SOME AREAS FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE SHOWERS
EXIT. SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT FEB 15 2014
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BEFORE AN UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGE ENSUES. UPPER JET AND
ASSOCIATED IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE NE PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING NEAR DAILY DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONTS. FORECAST MODELS AND MEAN
NAEFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES STILL FAVOR THE RETURN OF THE EASTERN
PAC/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A VERY
STRONG MID TROPOSPHERIC JET ADVECTS EAST OUT OF ASIA AND SUPPORTS
BREAKDOWN OF THE NE PAC UPPER TROUGH. THE RESULT OF THIS
TRANSITION WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION WITH
FAIRLY LONG TRAJECTORY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BULK OF CAA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NE OF THE REGION WITH A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD
AIR LOOKING MORE LIKELY AS THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE QUICKLY BIASES
EAST IN MOST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE...PER RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE NE
PAC/GULF OF ALASKA UPPER TROUGH.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BY FRIDAY. LEFT THE MON-WED PERIOD
MAINLY DRY ONLY OPTING TO RETAIN SOME LOW POPS OVER NE WY WED FOR A
SPLITTING IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. DID
BIAS WINDS UP MON AND TUE...WITH THE WINDIEST DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY
OVER THE SD PLAINS GIVEN CAA/PRESSURE RISE SETUP TIMED WITH DIURNAL
MIXING. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE WEEK
WITH MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PROGGED FOR ALL OF THE NW CONUS.
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY PER PRECIP CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO LACK STELLAR AGREEMENT OR CONSISTENCY PER
WAVE TIMING/STRENGTH/AND TRACK. BOTH MODELS DO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR UPPER TROUGH SPLITTING OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY-SAT...SHIFTING BETTER LSA AND UVM NORTH AND ESP SW OF THE FA.
HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THE FRIDAY PERIOD OVER WESTERN AREAS WHEN THE
STRONGEST UPPER IMPULSE IS PROGGED OVER THE REGION...WITH LOWER POPS
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRIDAY DAY PERIOD FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS
WILL TREND 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BY FRI-SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST SAT FEB 15 2014
BAND OF IFR ST/FG FROM K2WX TO KVTN WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT...BUT PROBABLY WON/T REACH KRAP TAF SITE. AS GRADIENT
INCREASES SUNDAY MORNING...ST/FG WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST OF CWA.
OUTSIDE OF ST/FG...VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SC/-SHRASN.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1255 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...OPTED TO DO A QUICK UPDATE OF THE FORECAST GRIDS AND
PRODUCTS AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY
COUNTIES OF EAST TN. THE LATEST RUC MODEL AND ACTUALLY THE 16/00Z
GFS MODEL BOTH TAKE THIS LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE
TN AND SW VA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS UNDER THE SNOW BANDS EARLIER
INDICATED THE SNOW WOULD GRADUALLY REACH THE SURFACE AFTER FALLING
FROM A MID DECK FOR ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO. KEPT ACCUMULATIONS TO
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS...BUT ALLOWED FOR UP TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY
OVER SW VA AND NRN MTNS OF E TN. SMOKIES NOT PROGGED TO BE UNDER
THE SNOW BANDS SO JUST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THERE AND LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. LOCALLY WE HAVE JUST UNDER 1/2 INCH OF NEW SNOW
ACCUMULATION AT OUR NWS OFFICE IN MORRISTOWN.
SPS ISSUED EARLIER STILL LOOKS GOOD...BUT WILL ALSO UPDATE OUR
GRAPHICAST.
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE...MOVING THROUGH EAST TN OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL AFFECT MAINLY NE TN. SNOW IS MOSTLY OVER AT
TYS BUT COULD DROP VSBY TO 3 MILES NEXT 2 HOURS. AT TRI THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS DROPPING VISIBILITY TO IFR
AROUND 8Z THEN IMPROVE AROUND 10Z. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
THIS MORNING AT CHA FIRST...AND THEN TYS BY MID MORNING...WITH TRI
HANGING ON TO CLOUDS UNTIL AROUND 00Z MONDAY.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG/TD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1130 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PASS ACROSS US OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. A THIRD SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1120 PM EST SATURDAY...
DECENT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
EVENING WILL BE FAST MOVING AND THERE IS ANOTHER MID LEVEL VORT
TRACKING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF TN WHICH IS BRINGING LIGHT
SNOW TO KNOXVILLE AND CROSSVILLE. THE 01Z HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS
WELL AND TAKES IT EAST INTO THE NC MTNS/FAR SW VA BY 4 AM...AND
WEAKENING IT. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WITH THE CLIPPER WILL TRACK INTO
NRN TN BY THIS TIME AND ACROSS SRN NC SUNDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE
MODELS CONSISTENCY IN PATH OF THE VORT WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC/VA TOMORROW MORNING...BUT EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND WESTOF BCB/ROA...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT FLURRIES-PATCHY LIGHT SNOW FURTHER SOUTH...WITH 00Z GFS
PRINTING OUT LIGHT QPF. THINKING DOWNSLOPE AND FAST MOVEMENT WILL
LIMIT SNOWFALL. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED AS IT HEADS THIS WAY BY
MORNING.
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
INTO FAR SW VA...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING OVER THE VA PIEDMONT
AND ACROSS NC...WITH LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP ACROSS THE MTNS OF WV
INTO THE ALLEGHANYS OF BATH AND ALLEGHANY COUNTY.
FORECAST TEMPS WERE ON TRACK SO NOT MANY CHANGES THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...
SHORT WAVE STARTS OUT IN EASTERN TENNESSEE SUNDAY MORNING THEN WILL
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE
SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING MID ATLANTIC REGION IS UNDER A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE. STILL EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORT WAVE REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY/7PM MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE
WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE BY MONDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS IT OVER
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WHILE THE NAM HAS IS IN NORTHERN OHIO. EITHER
WAY...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
WHICH WILL ADD TO THE LIFT OVER THE AREA.
LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES SPARSE ENOUGH...EVEN IN THE
TYPICAL WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY.
STRONG 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ON MONDAY BUT SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE DO NOT ARRIVE BACK IN THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES BY MONDAY
NIGHT.
BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...850 MB SHOULD BE AROUND +7. SURFACE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY. WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...
WILL START WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS
REGION...WHILE A STALLED COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE NIGHT...
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY MORNING...HELPING THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING...OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...ONLY TO STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF FEBRUARY. EXPECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE TEMPERATURES REACH
INTO THE LOW 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE
3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER STILL. RIDGE TOPS WILL REMAIN WARMER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
AND THE PIEDMONT DECOUPLE FROM THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
BECOME COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1120 PM EST SATURDAY...
MVFR CIGS HANGING JUST NORTH OF BLF-BCB WHILE LWB REMAINS IN IT.
THE AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER WV IS DWINDLING SOME AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BY 09Z. NEXT UPSTREAM CLIPPER ALREADY
SPREADING MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS ERN KY WITH VFR CIGS. NOT FAR
BEHIND CIGS ARE DROPPING BELOW 3KFT OVER SOUTHERN KY/NRN TN.
APPEARS AT LEAST BLF/LWB WILL DROP BACK TO MVFR BY 11-14Z...WHILE
CIGS AT THE OTHER TERMINALS REMAIN VFR. LIGHT SNOW SEEMS A GOOD
BET AT LWB/BLF AND PERHAPS EVEN BCB...MAINLY LIGHT OR FLURRIES
WITH NOT REALLY A 30 MINUTE+ WINDOW OF SUB VFR VSBYS.
THIS CLIPPER EXITS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE COMMENCING
KEEPING BLF/LWB IN MVFR CIGS. GUSTY WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY FROM ROANOKE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF
IN THE EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...SO EXPECT SOME WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLF-BCB-LYH LINE...ALONG WITH SUB-VFR CIGS. AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES
MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS/WP
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
627 PM PST Mon Feb 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
The storm parade will continue through Thursday as the upper
level pattern remains the same. Windy conditions will occur over
much of central and eastern Washington, while the Cascades and
mountainous areas of Idaho and northeast Washington will receive
heavy snow. A break in the active weather is expected to arrive
for the upcoming weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A forecast update has been sent out to refine the precip and sky
cover for this evening. There are two main areas of focus for
showers this evening. The first area is on the southeastern side
of a slowly moving cold front or more of a stationary front
situated from Portland, OR, across southeastern WA/central ID and
into western MT. This front is helping force the showers seen on
radar across the Palouse, into the Central Panhandle Mtns and
points southeastward. The other area of focus for showers is with
an organized line of shallow convection across the Northeast Mtns
and into the Northern Panhandle. We have had reports of some small
hail falling from some of the more intense cells. These stronger
cells may also produce some gusty outflow winds. These showers are
expected to weaken through this evening as we lose the surface
based instability with the setting sun. Probability of precip and
sky cover has been adjusted to more properly fit where we are
seeing these showers this evening. Chances for any shower activity
in the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene areas will primarily rely on whether
the line of showers in the northern mtns makes it this far south.
Based off of the latest HRRR model guidance, chances are slim as
it shows these showers dissipating before making it this far
south. Showers overnight into early tomorrow morning will
primarily be confined to the Cascade crest and across the ID
Panhandle where orographics will help keep showers going in the
moist southwesterly to westerly flow pattern. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The mid level front continues to sag south through the
southeast portion of the forecast area. North of the front the
atmosphere has destabilized as the cold upper trough moves in. This
is resulting in scattered showers across the eastern third of zones
that should linger until after sunset. While conditions will be
mainly VFR through the evening expect the potential for MVFR/IFR
cigs/vsby with the heaviest showers...in addition gusty outflow
winds to 50 kts will be possible. Otherwise gusty southwest winds
will remain at all TAF sites with gusts 25-30 kts through 04-06z.
The exception will be at KEAT where winds will come down off the
Cascades. The next in a series of weather systems will increase
moisture and lower the cloud deck from west to east Tuesday
afternoon. Precipitation will be on the increase after 16z near KEAT
and after 20z for the eastern TAF sites. Cigs/vsby expected to lower
to MVFR and possibly IFR with the onset of the Precipitation. Winds
will once again be on the increase out of the south-southeast with
gusts 20-25 kts. /Tobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 31 42 28 36 27 37 / 10 100 80 40 80 80
Coeur d`Alene 29 42 28 35 26 36 / 30 80 100 40 90 90
Pullman 32 45 29 36 27 38 / 50 80 100 50 70 70
Lewiston 34 49 32 41 31 44 / 50 60 90 50 60 60
Colville 26 39 27 38 27 38 / 30 100 80 20 80 70
Sandpoint 28 39 28 37 25 35 / 60 100 100 50 90 80
Kellogg 29 39 28 34 24 33 / 70 80 100 70 90 90
Moses Lake 32 48 30 42 30 43 / 10 70 20 20 60 20
Wenatchee 30 40 29 38 27 40 / 10 60 20 20 60 30
Omak 27 38 25 38 26 38 / 20 90 20 20 60 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for Northern Panhandle.
WA...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
night for East Slopes Northern Cascades.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1000 AM PST Sun Feb 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Stormy weather will continue through Thursday. The East Slopes of
the Cascades, as well as northeast Washington and north Idaho will
have a good chance of accumulating snow tonight. The Columbia
Basin and Palouse will experience windy conditions today through
Monday. On Wednesday and Thursday, snow levels will drop to the
valley floors over most of the Inland Northwest. Drier, more
stable weather is expected next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A moderately unstable westerly flow will be over the area today
behind the cold front that went through last night. Strong
downslope flow off the Cascades will keep most of the shower
activity near the Cascade crest and Central Panhandle Mountains.
A weak short wave ridge ahead of the next system will result in
the mid levels of the atmosphere warming slightly into this
afternoon which will cut down on afternoon shallow convection
potential which should allow showers to remain confined mainly to
the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. The latest HRRR shows a few
showers could develop as far west as the Idaho Palouse and Coeur
D`Alene area with most of Central and Eastern Washington remaining
dry. With the 12z model runs showing a similar scenario
precipitation chances were cut back for the remainder of today for
the Okanogan Valley and Highlands as well as the eastern third of
Washington. Also cut back pops a bit for Sandpoint with the high
terrain being the most favored for numerous shower activity. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Rain and snow showers will mainly be confined to the
upslope mountainous zones though this afternoon. MVFR stratocumulus
at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE will be gradually lifting through the afternoon
becoming VFR by 22z. The next weather system will spread a mix of
rain and snow into the region tonight...with the main focus north of
Interstate 90 as strong southerly winds upslopes into the high
terrain. Gusty winds will impact all TAF sites except KEAT which
stay sheltered as the surface but LLWS will develop around 05z. The
band of precipitation will gradually sag south overnight into
Monday morning. Lowering CIGS are expected after precipitation
develops with MVFR conditions expected over the eastern TAF sites
and possibly KEAT. Model show quite a bit of differences regarding
the precise onset of precipitation around the KGEG-KSFF-KCOE
corridor with precipitation type also more uncertain so confidence
is lowest for these areas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 41 34 43 31 39 28 / 10 70 70 30 80 60
Coeur d`Alene 41 33 42 30 39 28 / 20 80 80 30 80 80
Pullman 44 36 44 32 41 30 / 20 40 80 40 80 60
Lewiston 50 37 50 35 46 33 / 10 20 60 30 80 50
Colville 41 34 42 29 40 28 / 20 100 50 30 80 70
Sandpoint 40 32 39 30 39 29 / 40 100 80 40 80 90
Kellogg 37 32 37 30 39 28 / 80 100 100 60 80 90
Moses Lake 47 36 48 32 44 30 / 0 40 40 10 80 30
Wenatchee 44 32 45 30 41 28 / 10 40 30 10 80 40
Omak 41 32 43 28 39 25 / 10 70 30 10 80 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
Monday for Central Panhandle Mountains.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST
Monday for Northern Panhandle.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST
Monday for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST
Monday for East Slopes Northern Cascades.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
849 AM PST Sun Feb 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Stormy weather will continue through Thursday. The East Slopes of
the Cascades, as well as northeast Washington and north Idaho will
have a good chance of accumulating snow tonight. The Columbia
Basin and Palouse will experience windy conditions today through
Monday. On Wednesday and Thursday, snow levels will drop to the
valley floors over most of the Inland Northwest. Drier, more
stable weather is expected next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A moderately unstable westerly flow will be over the area today
behind the cold front that went through last night. Strong
downslope flow off the Cascades will keep most of the shower
activity near the Cascade crest and Central Panhandle Mountains.
A weak short wave ridge ahead of the next system will result in
the mid levels of the atmosphere warming slightly into this
afternoon which will cut down on afternoon shallow convection
potential which should allow showers to remain confined mainly to
the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. The latest HRRR shows a few
showers could develop as far west as the Idaho Palouse and Coeur
D`Alene area with most of Central and Eastern Washington remaining
dry. With the 12z model runs showing a similar scenario
precipitation chances were cut back for the remainder of today for
the Okanogan Valley and Highlands as well as the eastern third of
Washington. Also cut back pops a bit for Sandpoint with the high
terrain being the most favored for numerous shower activity. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Rain and snow showers will mainly be confined to the
upslope mountainous zones this morning and this afternoon. The next
round of widespread warm frontal precipitation will develop over
eastern Washington and north Idaho between 00z-03z. The best frontal
forcing will likely be along and north of Interstate 90. The
Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry airports will have a good shot at wet
snow accumulations tonight. Snow levels will be tough with this
system, but it looks like it will be a bit too warm for significant
accumulations around Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, Wenatchee and Pullman.
/GKoch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 41 34 43 31 39 28 / 10 70 70 30 80 60
Coeur d`Alene 41 33 42 30 39 28 / 20 80 80 30 80 80
Pullman 44 36 44 32 41 30 / 20 40 80 40 80 60
Lewiston 50 37 50 35 46 33 / 10 20 60 30 80 50
Colville 41 34 42 29 40 28 / 20 100 50 30 80 70
Sandpoint 40 32 39 30 39 29 / 40 100 80 40 80 90
Kellogg 37 32 37 30 39 28 / 80 100 100 60 80 90
Moses Lake 47 36 48 32 44 30 / 0 40 40 10 80 30
Wenatchee 44 32 45 30 41 28 / 10 40 30 10 80 40
Omak 41 32 43 28 39 25 / 10 70 30 10 80 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
Monday for Central Panhandle Mountains.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST
Monday for Northern Panhandle.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST
Monday for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST
Monday for East Slopes Northern Cascades.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
625 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 21Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
U.S....WITH THE BIG EXCEPTION FOR A NARROW BUT POTENT/DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN MISSOURI.
STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND A 0.5 INCH PER 12Z MPX SOUNDING BROUGHT
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SNOW WAS VERY EFFICIENT IN
REDUCING VISIBILITIES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING 3-4 HOURS OF
1/2 MILE OR LESS...AIDED TOO BY WINDS THAT GUSTED 20 TO 30 MPH.
ROADS QUICKLY DETERIORATED TOO. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE
OTHER HAND...WERE LESS THAN EXPECTED DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING.
BELIEVE SOME LEFT-OVER DRY AIR SEEN ON THE 12Z DVN SOUNDING
ABSORBED SOME OF THE SNOW...AND KEPT THE SNOW FROM ORGANIZING INTO
ONE SOLID AREA. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT ENDED UP
SHIFTING SOUTH...INITIALLY PROGGED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON
FRIDAY TO OVER THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY AND IN REALITY ENDED UP
OVER ILLINOIS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS LED TO CLEARING SKIES IN MN AND IA. WARMER AIR IS ALSO
ACCOMPANYING THE CLEARING...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35.
ANY LINGERING SNOW ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING SHOULD THEN WORK ITS
WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRING OF
SHORTWAVES STRETCHING FROM WASHINGTON STATE INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THESE SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO DIG
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...A
PLUME OF WARMER 925-850MB AIR IS FORECAST...WITH 925MB TEMPS
CLIMBING TO 2-6C BY 12Z TUESDAY. THESE TEMPS GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVES APPROACH...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF FILTERED SUNSHINE AND THESE WARMER TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. BOTH THE 17.12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HINT AT SOME LIGHT QPF PRODUCED FROM THESE SHORTWAVES AS WELL IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS DEPICT A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700-900MB TO
OVERCOME...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME SPRINKLES OCCUR...THOUGH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014
THERE ARE TWO ITEMS OF CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM...A POSSIBLE HIGH
IMPACT WINTER STORM FOR THURSDAY...AND THEN MORE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MENTIONED IN YESTERDAYS
DISCUSSION MODELS HAD TRENDED AWAY FROM HAVING A CENTRAL PLAINS
STORM AFFECTING THE AREA. THAT HAS COMPLETELY CHANGED WITH THE
17.12Z MODELS. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM IS A RESULT OF PHASING OF
TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AT 12Z THURSDAY PROGGED OVER KANSAS AND THE
DAKOTAS. THE PHASING LOOKS TO BEGIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW BEING
PULLED NORTH FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO UPPER MI. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ADVECT NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF THE STORM...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO REACH
0.5-0.75 INCHES. WITH 17.12Z MODEL CONSENSUS ALL HEADING TOWARD THE
PHASED IDEA...INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR
THURSDAY. BEING PHASED...THERE ARE GOING TO BE ISSUES...
1. PRECIPITATION TYPE. THERE IS SOME WARM AIR AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WARM LAYER ALOFT TEMPS AROUND 3C...WHICH WHEN THE
INITIAL PRECIPITATION STARTS TO FALL COULD END UP BEING AS
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD THEN ALLOW
THE TYPE TO GO OVER TO SNOW. THIS IS TEMPORARY FOR THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BECAUSE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY
THURSDAY...WARM AIR COMES BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME
DAYTIME HEATING IS HELPING TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID 30S
ALONG THE MS RIVER AND EAST. SO A MIX WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THESE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ARE GOING TO CREATE HAVOC WITH FORECASTING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
2. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE NORTHWEST / DEFORMATION SIDE OF THIS STORM
COULD EASILY PUT DOWN SOME HEAVY SNOW IF THE PHASING OCCURS AS
PLANNED. THE NEW 17.18Z NAM REALLY HITS AN AREA FROM NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN HARD WITH UPWARDS OF 1-1.5 INCHES OF
QPF. THIS IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE 15.09Z/15.15Z SREF...BUT REFLECTS THAT WE NEED TO WATCH THE
STORM. WHERE THE DEFORMATION TRACKS TOO DEPENDS ON THE STORM TRACK.
3. WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. 925MB WINDS
FROM THE 17.12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT
IN A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME THURSDAY EVENING. THESE WINDS
COULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE BLOWING OF THE SNOW. INCREASED WINDS AND
MENTIONED BLOWING SNOW...BUT MAY NEED TO RAISE WINDS MORE.
WITH THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM STILL LINGERING AROUND...AND THAT THE
MODELS HAVE JUST TRENDED BACK TO A PHASED SYSTEM...HAVE DECIDED NOT
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...SHOULD MODELS
SHOW THE SAME THING AGAIN TONIGHT...WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...17.12Z GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COOL DOWN EACH DAY. THIS COOL DOWN IS A RESULT
OF AN OMEGA BLOCK THAT DEVELOPS FROM ALASKA DOWN THE WEST COAST OF
THE U.S...CAUSING DEEP TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. FOLLOWING A MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST...WE COULD BE
APPROACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONCERNS AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
EVEN COLDER AIR APPEARS TO BE LURKING BEYOND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE ECMWF AND CFS. THIS DEEP UPPER TROUGHING FORMING PUSHES MOST
PRECIPITATING SYSTEMS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DO HAVE SOME
LOW CHANCES OF SNOW HERE AND THERE FOR SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE
COLD FRONT PASSING KLSE BY 00Z. MVFR CIGS RIDING CLOSE TO THE
BOUNDARY AND WILL LINGER A FEW HOURS PAST 00Z AT KLSE.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUE...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SFC
BOUNDARY. NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN WITH THIS FRONT...MOSTLY MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. COULD GET SOME LOW SCT...POTENTIALLY A FEW HOURS
BKN025. GOING TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR NOW THOUGH. WITH ANOTHER
WEAK RIDGE FOR WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR A COUPLE
DAYS.
THU COULD SEE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM BLAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH PROLONGED LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD
RESULT. TOO EARLY TO SAY AS STORM TRACK IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
316 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ON HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALBERTA THROUGH
IDAHO...RIDGING FROM TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.. WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE INFLECTION
POINT EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS AT THE
SURFACE WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. THIS
RESULTED IN CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY SPREADING EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN
PLACE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER
ANALYSIS SHOWED VALUES AROUND 0.5 INCH FROM OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...COMPARED TO 0.1-0.25 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MAIN FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SNOW IS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER IDAHO WHICH REACHES THE
FORECAST AREA AT 18Z MONDAY. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT BETWEEN 12-18Z
MONDAY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT. IN RESPONSE LIFT GREATLY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND
TO BALANCE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND IT. THE LIFT WILL ACT ON
THE PLUME OF 0.5 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER SEEN OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS TO PRODUCE THE SNOW.
SOME INTERESTING FACETS FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...
1. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...IT
APPEARS A WARM ADVECTION BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST MN AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. UNSURE HOW MUCH OF THIS SNOW WILL REACH THE
SURFACE AS MODELS DEPICT LEFTOVER DRY AIR BETWEEN 750-900MB THAT
NEEDS SATURATING. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE KEPT LOWER
PRIOR TO 09Z. AS WE APPROACH 12Z...THE BIG BATCH OF SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
2. THERE IS A VERY TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS FOR 12-18Z MONDAY TO BE THE
TIME PERIOD OF HEAVIEST QPF/SNOW. WITH A LITTLE NEGATIVE EPV THROWN
IN IN THE MID LEVELS...EASILY COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE NATURE TO
THE SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR EASILY SEEM PLAUSIBLE
FOR A COUPLE HOURS...KNOCKING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 MILE. THESE
RATES SHOULD OCCUR AT THE WORST TIME...MORNING COMMUTE. ALTHOUGH
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
ARE ONLY FORECAST RIGHT NOW IN THE 4-5 INCH RANGE...BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA...ISSUED A WARNING BASED ON TIME OF DAY. FAR WESTERN AREAS
SUCH AS ROCHESTER LOOK TO GET INTO SOME BLOWING SNOW TOO. ALSO
WARNED FOR THAT AREA BECAUSE THE 16.12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED QPF UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...NOW NEAR 1/3 OF
AN INCH.
3. WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOULD MAKE THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE MUCH
MORE MANAGEABLE...PROVIDED ROADS ARE CLEANED UP IN TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
AFTER AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY
QUIET. THERE ARE SOME ITEMS OF INTEREST...
1. TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL...ALLOWING PACIFIC AIR TO FLOW INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WARMEST DAY SHOULD COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
CLIMB TO 4-6C...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO TOP OUT AS HIGH AS THE
LOW 40S. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LAST TIME LA CROSSE WAS ABOVE
NORMAL WAS JANUARY 30TH. AT ROCHESTER...IT WAS JANUARY 16TH.
2. STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF RUNS FROM 15.00Z AND PRIOR TOOK THIS SYSTEM AND REALLY
INTENSIFIED IT WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT CHANGED WITH THE 15.12Z ECMWF AND LATEST 16.12Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS CONTINUE TO BRING THE SYSTEM INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
BY THURSDAY EVENING. ALONG ITS TRACK...ASSISTED BY A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST...A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ENOUGH WARM AIR LOOKS TO GET
PULLED UP INTO THE SYSTEM TO ALLOW FOR A MIX OF PRECIPITATION IN
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOMETHING WORTH MONITORING.
3. SYSTEM TO BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE 16.12Z GFS AND CANADIAN BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
DEFORMATION SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO SIGN OF THIS SHORTWAVE IN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW
JUST HAVE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST.
4. HEADING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS
HAVE MATCHED UP WELL WITH CFS FORECASTS SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES
GOING BACK BELOW NORMAL AS TROUGHING REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. BY THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS MAY GET STUCK BELOW -10C
AGAIN...WITH SOME HINTS OF -20C AIR COMING AT THE AREA JUST BEYOND
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
GOOD VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL SWING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPSTREAM LOW DROPPING INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS LOW WILL THEN
MOVE EAST...INTO/ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/MON...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT TO HEAVY SNOW AND BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE
TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING.
CIGS/VSBYS DROP TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MOISTURE INCREASE AND
DEEPER LIFT AHEAD OF THIS LOW MOVES IN. STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE
MOISTURE/LIFT SPREADS ACROSS KRST MAINLY 09-15Z AT KRST AND KLSE
MAINLY 11-17Z. IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME IN THE
SN/+SN...ALONG WITH WINDS 20G30KT AND BLSN/DRIFTING SNOW AT SITES
LIKE KRST.
TAF SITES LOOKING AT AROUND 5 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME...WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR EXPECTED FOR A ROUGHLY 3
HR PERIOD AS THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW PASSES...IMPACTING AIRPORT
OPS AND SNOW REMOVAL OPERATIONS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO AT
LEAST MVFR LATE MON MORNING AT KRST AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS KLSE AS
THE SNOW BAND AND LOW MOVE QUICKLY IN TO EASTERN WI.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS
WEEK BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ZONAL FLOW DIRTIED UP WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE AT
TIMES...BUT OTHERWISE RATHER DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER 1/3 OF AN
INCH AND SURFACE DEWPTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RECEDE EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT STILL
WARM ENOUGH FOR ONE MORE DAY NEAR RECORDS IN A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS.
LATEST HRRR STREAMLINE TRENDS HINTING AT MODEST GRADIENT ENHANCEMENT
AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TODAY. AN IMPULSE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT IN OUR PART OF
THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SOME
CONCERNS FOR THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AS ADDRESSED BELOW.
AN EVEN HIGHER LATITUDE RESOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM AS THE
REBUILDING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE NOSES IN TO CONTINUE TO KEEP US DRY
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/12Z. SCT-BKN ABV 20K FT. NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS LESS THAN 10 KTS...EXCEPT BECMG SW 8-14KT AFT 18/20Z
THRU 19/02Z MAINLY SE OF KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO
THIS COMING WEEKEND. SOME LOCALLY BREEZY SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY GENERATING INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES. GENERALLY EXPECTING 15-25 MPH
20 FT WINDS ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS WITH AREAS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN COCHISE...SOUTHERN GREENLEE AND SOUTHEAST
GRAHAM COUNTIES AS PER CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 146 AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 148.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/RASMUSSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1248 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING IN LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING IN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...AFTER A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WIND...TEMPS PLUMMETED ACROSS THE REGION...INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE NOW
THICKENING...AND A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND WILL SOON ALSO DEVELOP.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK.
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH THE
GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR
WESTERN NYS. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ENE...SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS IT SPREADS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND RAP13 SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO MOVE IN AFTER 09Z...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE
DELAYED SOMEWHAT AS A DEEP LAYER OF LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR IMPEDES
ITS INITIAL PROGRESS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN...SO
SOME OF THIS INITIAL PRECIP WILL BE LOST TO VIRGA. STILL...MANY
AREAS WILL BE STARTING TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES FALLING JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE IN OUR AREA...WITH A COATING POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BEFORE IT MAKES ITS TRANSITION TO THE COAST. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES WHERE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW. THE
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WINDHAM...BENNINGTON...BERKSHIRE AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES FROM 5 AM - 3 PM. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR QPF. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE NAM QPF AS IT WAS
A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE AND FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH MAX QPF
VALUES. BEST FRONTOGENESIS/FORCING ON GUIDANCE IS BEST OVER THE
NEW ENGLAND AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE ME
COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL START TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THEN NORTHERN ZONES AND LOW TO
MID 3OS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND HAVE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY... ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED AND OF THE SHOWERY TYPE.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON THURSDAY AND
WE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO
LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE FROM NEAR 0 TO
+2 DEGREES C TO +7 TO +10 DEGREES C BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IN
SOME SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES...TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW FREEZING FOR A
PERIOD...RESULTING IN SOME FREEZING RAIN. A LIGHT ACCRETION OF ICE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS...AND WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO STATEMENT. SFC TEMPS MAY FALL INITIALLY DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT SHOULD STEADILY RISE EVERYWHERE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABOVE
FREEZING...WITH TEMPS AS WARM AS THE LOW 40S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING
AND MID AFTN HOURS. A LINE OF STEADY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO
THE 40S IN MOST AREAS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH FALLING TEMPS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MAX TEMPS
ON SAT...AND MIN TEMPS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT NIGHT/S IN THE 20S.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO RETURN FOR
MONDAY WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. IT LOOKS TO BE DRY UNTIL ABOUT
13Z-14Z...WHEN LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. SNOW WILL QUICKLY ALLOW FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE DAY ON
TUESDAY. VSBY MAY FINALLY START TO IMPROVE BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL LIKELY STILL STAY MVFR DUE TO
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME E-SE AT 5-10 KTS ON TUESDAY.
BY LATE IN THE DAY...THEY WILL SWITCH TO THE W-NW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH A LIGHT SNOW EVENT IN STORE FOR TUESDAY...MORE SNOW/LIQUID WILL BE
ADDED TO OUR CURRENT PACK. SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE GENERALLY FROM A FOOT TO
THREE FEET. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING TO ALLOW A MELT FREEZE CYCLE TO TAKE
PLACE. THIS WILL HELP WITH A SLOW MELT AND HOPEFULLY ALLEVIATE ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE MONTHLY SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR FEBRUARY AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT IS AT 25.7 INCHES THROUGH THE 16TH. THIS AMOUNT IS ONLY 0.3 INCHES
FROM REACHING INTO THE TOP 10 FOR SNOWIEST FEBRUARYS SINCE 1885.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
TOP 10 SNOWIEST FEBRUARYS ALBANY
1. 40.7 INCHES 1893
2. 34.5 INCHES 1962
3. 32.3 INCHES 1926
4. 31.7 INCHES 1950
5. 30.1 INCHES 2011
6. 28.6 INCHES 1993
7. 27.5 INCHES 1899
8. 26.1 INCHES 1914
9. 26.0 INCHES 1958
10. 26.0 INCHES 1988
LOOKING AT THE SEASONAL SNOWFALL IT STANDS AT 62.8 INCHES. NORMAL FOR
THE ENTIRE WINTER SEASON IS 59.1 INCHES.
SO HOW DOES THIS WINTER COMPARE TO RECENT WINTERS FOR ALBANY...
2012-13: 51.4 INCHES
2011-12: 23.3 INCHES
2010-11: 87.2 INCHES
2009-10: 45.4 INCHES
2008-09: 52.6 INCHES
2007-08: 61.1 INCHES
2006-07: 45.9 INCHES
2005-06: 30.2 INCHES
2004-05: 75.9 INCHES
2003-04: 65.1 INCHES
2002-03: 105.4 INCHES
2001-02: 47.4 INCHES
2000-01: 77.1 INCHES
ALBANY EXTREMES:
SNOWIEST 1970-71 WITH 112.5 INCHES
LEAST 1912-13 WITH ONLY 13.8 INCHES
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 3 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 3 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 3 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...VTK
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/11
HYDROLOGY...VTK
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA
TODAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST THIS MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TONIGHT.
THEN THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MILDER
WEATHER AND A SERIES OF FRONTS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY CROSS OUR AREA THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 3 AM...THE SNOW BAND CONTINUED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE REGION.
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS...RADAR...AND SATELLITE TRENDS...EXPECT ONLY
VERY LIGHT SNOW LINGERING BEHIND THIS MAIN SNOW BAND. WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING THE DRY SLOT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO OCCLUDE. A SECONDARY
SNOW BAND IS TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL PA...BUT THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION IN THIS BAND...AND IR
SATELLITE IS SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE
PATTERN THE 03Z HRRR WAS SHOWING WITH SNOW BANDS BECOMING LESS
ORGANIZED AS THEY APPROACH OUR REGION. THUS...EXPECT THE LOW TO
BEGIN TO FILL AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE TRENDED SNOW
TOTALS DOWN...BUT PLAN TO HOLD ON TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS TO SEE WHAT KIND OF SNOW RATES THIS MAIN
BAND WILL PROVIDE AND IF THE SECONDARY BAND CAN GET ORGANIZED.
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT PRECIPITATION COULD REDEVELOP NEAR
OR JUST OFF THE JERSEY SHORE AROUND 18Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FINALLY LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...BY THIS
POINT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN NOT SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
LATEST MODELS SHOW AFTER THE INITIAL MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS
THIS MORNING BEHIND THE SNOW...DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT TEMPS WILL GET LOW
ENOUGH FOR SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
HOWEVER...IF WINDS DROP OFF ENOUGH THAT PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPS LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK MELT TO
TODAY...THAT COULD ADD TO THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE. BUT FOR
NOW...TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD, A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AD
CROSS THE AREA DURG THE FIRST HALF OF WED. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
MAINLY RAIN WITH IT, BUT IF THE PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH N AND W
THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING RAIN N AND W OR SOME KIND OF WINTRY
MIX FOR A FEW HOURS. OVERALL QPF IS FAIRLY LIGHT.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WED NIGHT INTO
THU, BRINGING DRY WX.
THEN, AS STRONG LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVES EWD,
ITS ATTENDANT WMFNT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION THU NIGHT. THE LOW
WILL ADVANCE NEWD INTO ERN CANADA AND ITS ASSOCD STRONG CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON FRI. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS, PSBLY SOME
THUNDER AND A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN...SOME OF IT COULD BE
HEAVY...FOR A TIME.
AFTER THIS FRONT PASSES, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR
LATER FRI INTO AT LEAST SUN.
THEN, THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WK LOW OVER THE OH VLY
AND PUSH IT EWD SUN NIGHT INTO MON WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE DRY
WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA OVER
THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE NATION AND SLOWLY MOVG EWD.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHICH MDL, IF ANY, WILL BE RIGHT AT THIS TIME
SCALE, SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FCST ATTM.
TEMPS WILL BE ON QUITE A ROLLER COASTER. WE WILL SEE ABOVE NRML
TEMPS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE SOME TIME. THIS WILL HELP MELT
SOME OF THE SNOW. UNFORTUNATELY IF IT DOES IT TO QUICKLY AND IF WE
GET DECENT RAIN ON FRI THERE COULD BE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NRML FOR ABOUT FOR 6 DAYS BEFORE
RETURNING TO BELOW NRML VALUES BY THE END OF THE PD. ON WED HIGH
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 40S THEY WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ON THU
WITH MANY AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR S AND E MAKING A RUN AT 50
DEGREES. FRI WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH GOOD SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CFP. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE, A 60 DEGREE READING
ON THE I-95 CORRIDOR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER ON SAT BUT NOT UNBEARABLE AND WILL TREND MUCH COOLER BY
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AS OF 08Z SNOW BAND IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MINIMUM CONDITIONS
ARE AROUND 1/2SM SN OVC007 IN THE MIDDLE OF THE BAND. THE BAND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION NO LATER THAN 12Z. IN ITS WAKE...COULD
STILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS...AND ISOLATED CASES OF -SN REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 3SM...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BETTER THAN WHAT WE ARE
SEEING NOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING TO VFR BY 18Z FOR THE TERMINALS. ONCE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF MOSTLY RAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE AFTER 15Z...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO STAY
MOSTLY N OF KACY.
OUTLOOK...
WED...A SYS WILL MOVE THRU IN THE MRNG AND BRING MAINLY SHRA.
THERE CUD BE FZRA OR MIXED PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS IF THE
PRECIP DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH WED AM. MVFR PSBL IFR IN THE MRNG
THEN IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTN. SW WIND GUST 15-20 KT SHIFT NW
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MDT CONFIDENCE
WED NIGHT...GENLY VFR WITH PATCHY IFR FOG PSBL TOWARD SUNRISE IN
THE MORE RURAL AREAS. MDT CONFIDENCE
THU...VFR THROUGH THE DAY. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR IN
ST/FOG/RAIN-DRIZZLE THURSDAY NIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. MDT CONFIDENCE
FRI...MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR IN ST/FOG/SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE MORNING. CFP FRI AFTN... BRINGING AN ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT...AND RETURN TO VFR. LLWS POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING. SW
WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT THROUGH MIDDAY SHIFT NW AFTER THE CFP. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY.
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS BY EARLY
THIS EVENING AND STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...SCA CONDS PSBL IN SW TO W FLOW.
THU...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WIND AND SEAS
INCREASE THU NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF CDFNT.
FRI...SCA LIKELY. S WIND IN THE MRNG WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND CFP
IN THE AFTN.
SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS.
THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 16TH HAVE AVERAGED ABOUT
3 DEGREES (SOUTH) TO MORE THAN 6 DEGREES (NORTH)...ALL COLDER THAN
NORMAL!
SEASONAL SNOW TOTALS AND RANKING AS OF 7 AM TODAY-MONDAY FEBRUARY
17.
&&
.CLIMATE...
PHL 55.4 IS TIED FOR #3 OFFICIAL RECORDS BACK TO 1884
1. 78.7 2009-10
2. 65.5 1995-96
3. 55.4 2013-14
1898-99
5. 54.9 1977-78
ABE 65.4 IS #4 OFFICIAL RECORDS BACK TO 1922
1. 75.4 1993-94
2. 71.4 1995-96
3. 67.2 1966-67
4. 65.4 2013-14
5. 65.2 1960-61
ILG 45.9 IS #5 OFFICIAL RECORDS BACK TO 1894
1. 72.8 2009-10
2. 49.5 1957-58
3. 48.8 1906-07 (MISSING DAYS)
4. 46.1 2002-03
5. 45.9 2013-14
ACY 27.0 RANKED 18. OFFICIAL RECORDS BACK TO 1874.
FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY THROUGH 7AM TODAY-MONDAY 2/17/14
PHL 18.3 RANKED 10TH AND MAY JUMP TO # 7 TUESDAY MORNING? HERE IS
THE PHILADELPHIA FEBRUARY SNOWFALL RANKING LISTING BELOW.
1. 51.5 2010
2. 31.5 1899
3. 29.6 2003
4. 27.6 1979
5. 26.1 1983
6. 24.1 1907
7. 19.0 1978
8/9 18.5 1967 AND 1934
10. 18.3 2014
ABE 35.2 RANKED #2 BEHIND THE 42.9 OF 2010.
ILG 16.5 RANKED #11 BEHIND THE 18.0 #10 OF 1899 AND THE #1 46.9 OF
2010.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ054-055-060>062-103>106.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ070-071-101-102.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NJZ020>022-027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ015-
019-020.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ008-012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>453.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431-454-455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
429 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT CROSSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL A
STRONG COLD FRONT FINALLY EJECTS IT FROM THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA WITH ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS HAVING ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY THEN RETURN NORTHWARD
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW...HOWEVER THERE
IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND
70 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ENERGY WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
AROUND DAYBREAK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL AGAIN KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT SLIDING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY ON
THURSDAY WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
AND PUSH A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS...HOWEVER WITH LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE
LIGHT WITH A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF QPF AT MOST. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
DIFFERENCES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FRIDAY FORECAST AS
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND THE DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT IS ALSO A CONCERN. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFERING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GFS EJECTS THE HIGH
PRESSURE FASTER THEN THE ECMWF WITH BOTH MODELS RETURNING MOISTURE
TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CONFIDENCE LOW FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
STRATO-CUMULUS DECK WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
POSSIBLY LOWER TOWARD MORNING AS WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT FOG WILL NOT DEVELOP GIVEN STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...BUT LOW CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AS SUGGESTED
BY LAMP AND HRRR GUIDANCE. VAD WINDS FROM KCAE RADAR INDICATING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 2000 FT 40 TO 50 KTS...SO WITH
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS AT THE SURFACE EXPECT A PERIOD OF NON-
CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR...WEAKENING BY 12Z. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED
BY MID MORNING AND SKY MAY GO CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AFTER 00Z
EXPECT STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM
GEORGIA AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT...BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1240 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY TAKE HOLD TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION
FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS STILL ON TAP FOR THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WEILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN ON REGIONAL RADARS
MOVING THROUGH THE UPSTATE OF SC AND THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL GA.
PRECIP IS FAST MOVING AND LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY. MOISTURE
WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE LOW
LEVELS. SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THEY APPROACH THE CWA
LATE TONIGHT. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH GENERALLY NO POPS
ELSEWHERE AS DOWNSLOPING FURTHER DIMINISHES REMAINING MOISTURE.
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.
TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
AROUND SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA AS THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF COAST. WENT WITH MOS
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT ALSO OFFSHORE. ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH A COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE AROUND 1 INCH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE WARM
FRONT ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA EARLY FRIDAY WITH
A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS SHOW AMPLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH GFS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.4 INCHES AT 12Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME WITH RAIN LIKELY. THE SPC HAS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS IN ITS DAY 5 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. STRONG FLOW
ALOFT MAY RESULT IN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND EXPANDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL ALONG
THE COAST ON SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND IT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RETURNING TO OVER AN INCH.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR RETURNING TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
STRATO-CUMULUS DECK WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
POSSIBLY LOWER TOWARD MORNING AS WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT FOG WILL NOT DEVELOP GIVEN STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...BUT LOW CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AS SUGGESTED
BY LAMP AND HRRR GUIDANCE. VAD WINDS FROM KCAE RADAR INDICATING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 2000 FT 40 TO 50 KTS...SO WITH
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS AT THE SURFACE EXPECT A PERIOD OF NON-
CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR...WEAKENING BY 12Z. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED
BY MID MORNING AND SKY MAY GO CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AFTER 00Z
EXPECT STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM
GEORGIA AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT...BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
317 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
248 PM CST
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...
WILL LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING AS IS...WITH THE WESTERN
COUNTIES ENDING AT 6PM AND THE EASTERN COUNTIES ENDING AT 9PM CST.
TWO LOWS ARE OVER THE REGION. THE DEEPER ONE IS OVER SOUTHWEST MN
WHILE THE OTHER IS OVER SOUTHERN IL. BOTH LOWS HAVE DEEPENED IN
THE PAST HOUR. ALOFT...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM MN
THROUGH MO WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING THE
LIFT FOR THE SNOW. THE RAP HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD IDEA OF THE FGEN
FORCING AND CAPE TODAY. THE FGEN IS FOCUSED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
AND HAVE IT PASSING FROM MCLEAN COUNTY INTO CENTRAL INDIANA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CAPE REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FGEN
BAND. AS SUCH THINKING THUNDERSNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF I-80 AND NORTHWEST INDIANA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO INDIANA BY 3PM. BUT THINKING THUNDERSNOW IS NOT
AS LIKELY AS IT WAS EARLIER TODAY...AND WE ARE ON A DOWNWARD TREND.
AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 AND NW INDIANA...HAVE ALSO BEEN HARDEST HIT BY
SNOW THUS FAR WITH REPORTS AS HIGH AS 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR. THE AREA
OF SNOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THOSE INTENSE RATES HAS MOVED EAST. HOWEVER
ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW COINCIDING WITH THE FGEN BAND STRETCHES FROM
MCHENRY COUNTY THROUGH CHAMPAIGN COUNTY. IT JUST MOVED OVER THE
OFFICE HERE AND VSBY DROPPED TO LESS THAN 1/8 OF A MILE WITH HEAVY
SNOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP HEAVY SNOW IN THE FORECAST AS THIS BAND
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. HAVE THE BAND PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY 5PM
CST.
THE BACK END OF THE SNOW STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MN TO PEORIA TO
DECATUR IL AND IS QUICKLY PUSHING EAST AS WELL. AS SUCH QUICKENED
THE END TIME OF SNOW IN THE GRIDS. LEFT TOTALS AS IS WITH GENERALLY
4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECTING SLIGHTLY LOWER TOTALS ALONG
THE IL/WI STATE LINE AND THEN HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA. WITH THIS BEING A WETTER TYPE SNOW...LEFT BLOWING SNOW OUT OF
THE FORECAST. WIND GUSTS PICK UP SOUTH OF I-80 BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED...AND THEY
DIMINISH BY MORNING.
FOR TEMPS...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS RIGHT ON SO DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO TODAYS TEMPS. FOR TONIGHT...WENT A BIT LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW AND CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20.
JEE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO PUSH THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH SFC RIDGING BUILDING INTO
NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. THE COMBINATION OF RIDGING...P-CLOUDY
SKIES...ALONG WITH MID-LVL TEMPS BEGINNING TO WARM...SHOULD ALLOW
SFC TEMPS TO WARM MID/UPR 30S TUE AFTN. A FEW POINTS ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA COULD TOUCH 40 DEGREES.
THEN WITH THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING FOR A RELATIVELY FLUID
ENVIRONMENT...A WEAK TROUGH PIVOTS EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUE
AFTN/EVE...AND BRINGS THICKENING CLOUD COVER BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA. LOCAL MODEL WAS INDICATING SOME SPRINKLES WITH THE WEAK WAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE EVE...HOWEVER
FEEL TOO MUCH DRY AIR WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUE NGT INTO WED AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE CWFA. SFC RIDGING WILL DEPART
EAST...HOWEVER BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY INFLUENCE FOR THE AREA INTO WED. THIS FEATURE
WILL THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS ONLY COOL MARGINALLY TUE NGT ALOFT...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
COOLING AT THE SFC...THUS HAVE HELD ONTO TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 20S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEN FOR WED WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY AND P-CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO WARM BACK ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE
LOW/MID 30S.
WEAK MID-LVL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD WED AFTN/EVE...WITH SFC RIDGING
KEEPING A SLIGHT INFLUENCE OVER THE CWFA THRU EARLY EVE. THIS SHUD
KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WED NGT/EARLY THUR.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP THAT CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED BY NUMEROUS
FORECAST MODELS. WHILE SOME CORRECTIONS CONTINUE TO TAKE
PLACE...WITH RESPECT TO THE PLACEMENT/INTENSITY OF THE DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR. 500MB TROUGH REMAINS MORE OF AN ELONGATED
SETUP...WITH THE VORT MAX OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DESPITE THE
TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS OF COLORADO EARLY
THUR. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ON
THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES NEAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THUR. WITH
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY STREAM NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
ENSEMBLES HAVE MAINTAINED A DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PWAT VALUES
NEARING 1" FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 IN NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN THUR...WITH STRONG MFLUX CONVERGENCE AT 850MB. THIS
COUPLED WITH A VERY ROBUST LLVL JET...AND STRONG INSTABILITY...POINT
TOWARDS NOT ONLY THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAIN GIVEN THE SURGE IN
WARM AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC HAS A PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...OUTLOOKED FOR POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THIS REMAINS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER LINE FOR THE MAIN
FOCUS AREA...HOWEVER GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING/INTENSITY/PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THIS WILL LIKELY BE
ADJUSTED OVER TIME.
SHORTWAVE THEN SLIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THUR EVE...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING AN END TO THE MILD AIRMASS AND RETURNING
P-TYPE BACK TO LGT SNOW BEFORE ENDING FRI MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTER TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID/UPR 40S THUR...FRI HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDS IN THE LOW/MID 30S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK PATTERN IS PROGGED TO
RETURN TO WHAT HAS BEEN A COMMON PATTERN OF TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING PUSHING INTO WESTERN
CANADA. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS.
THEN GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A COUPLE WEAK MID-LVL WAVES TRAVERSING
THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ENHANCED CONCERN
REGARDING FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE DETAIL METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION IS ABOVE.
NO CHANGES REALLY TO THE PREVIOUS HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION OTHER
THAN SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE AFTER TODAY`S SNOW SYSTEM. WILL FRESHEN UP THE ESF
AGAIN THIS MORNING BUT NOT PLANNING ANY BIG CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING ACROSS BOTH MDW/ORD THRU 1130Z.
* PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION...WITH THE LOW
STRATUS LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA. THIS STRATUS IS PROGRESSIVE WITH BOTH DISTANCE SPEED TOOL
AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE BOTH TAKING THIS STRATUS EAST OF ALL THE
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. WITH ITS DEPARTURE...DONT
ANTICIPATE MUCH IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. AT THIS TIME...THE NEXT SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA SHOULD ONLY BRING ABOUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATER
TUESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME
POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD RAPIDLY DROP OFF HERE
IN THE NEAR TERM WITH SURFACE RIDGING OCCURRING. AS THEY DECREASE
IN SPEED...WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND
THEN INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH MID DAY.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CEILING TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH FOG.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR FZRA DEVELOPING.
THURSDAY..RAIN/FOG/IFR LIKELY. CHANCE THUNDER. FZRA POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING.
FRIDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
300 PM CST
HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THIS EVENING AS A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN...BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH THE NERN CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE
TONIGHT AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE FRONT...SETTING
UP A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY VARIABLE...BUT WEAKER WINDS OVER THE
LAKE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
SRN CANADA...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE
FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE LAKES...SLY-SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO ARND 30KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAKER LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND A STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTH HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL BE THE MAIN SYSTEM OF
CONCERN AS IT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH
ERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LAKE. SWLY WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED GALE FORCE WHILE SHIFTING
TO WLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1203 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
248 PM CST
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...
WILL LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING AS IS...WITH THE WESTERN
COUNTIES ENDING AT 6PM AND THE EASTERN COUNTIES ENDING AT 9PM CST.
TWO LOWS ARE OVER THE REGION. THE DEEPER ONE IS OVER SOUTHWEST MN
WHILE THE OTHER IS OVER SOUTHERN IL. BOTH LOWS HAVE DEEPENED IN
THE PAST HOUR. ALOFT...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM MN
THROUGH MO WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING THE
LIFT FOR THE SNOW. THE RAP HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD IDEA OF THE FGEN
FORCING AND CAPE TODAY. THE FGEN IS FOCUSED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
AND HAVE IT PASSING FROM MCLEAN COUNTY INTO CENTRAL INDIANA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CAPE REMAINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FGEN
BAND. AS SUCH THINKING THUNDERSNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF I-80 AND NORTHWEST INDIANA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO INDIANA BY 3PM. BUT THINKING THUNDERSNOW IS NOT
AS LIKELY AS IT WAS EARLIER TODAY...AND WE ARE ON A DOWNWARD TREND.
AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 AND NW INDIANA...HAVE ALSO BEEN HARDEST HIT BY
SNOW THUS FAR WITH REPORTS AS HIGH AS 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR. THE AREA
OF SNOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THOSE INTENSE RATES HAS MOVED EAST. HOWEVER
ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW COINCIDING WITH THE FGEN BAND STRETCHES FROM
MCHENRY COUNTY THROUGH CHAMPAIGN COUNTY. IT JUST MOVED OVER THE
OFFICE HERE AND VSBY DROPPED TO LESS THAN 1/8 OF A MILE WITH HEAVY
SNOW. AS SUCH WILL KEEP HEAVY SNOW IN THE FORECAST AS THIS BAND
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. HAVE THE BAND PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY 5PM
CST.
THE BACK END OF THE SNOW STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MN TO PEORIA TO
DECATUR IL AND IS QUICKLY PUSHING EAST AS WELL. AS SUCH QUICKENED
THE END TIME OF SNOW IN THE GRIDS. LEFT TOTALS AS IS WITH GENERALLY
4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECTING SLIGHTLY LOWER TOTALS ALONG
THE IL/WI STATE LINE AND THEN HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA. WITH THIS BEING A WETTER TYPE SNOW...LEFT BLOWING SNOW OUT OF
THE FORECAST. WIND GUSTS PICK UP SOUTH OF I-80 BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED...AND THEY
DIMINISH BY MORNING.
FOR TEMPS...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS RIGHT ON SO DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO TODAYS TEMPS. FOR TONIGHT...WENT A BIT LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW AND CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20.
JEE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO PUSH THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH SFC RIDGING BUILDING INTO
NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. THE COMBINATION OF RIDGING...P-CLOUDY
SKIES...ALONG WITH MID-LVL TEMPS BEGINNING TO WARM...SHOULD ALLOW
SFC TEMPS TO WARM MID/UPR 30S TUE AFTN. A FEW POINTS ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWFA COULD TOUCH 40 DEGREES.
THEN WITH THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING FOR A RELATIVELY FLUID
ENVIRONMENT...A WEAK TROUGH PIVOTS EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUE
AFTN/EVE...AND BRINGS THICKENING CLOUD COVER BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA. LOCAL MODEL WAS INDICATING SOME SPRINKLES WITH THE WEAK WAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE EVE...HOWEVER
FEEL TOO MUCH DRY AIR WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUE NGT INTO WED AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE CWFA. SFC RIDGING WILL DEPART
EAST...HOWEVER BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY INFLUENCE FOR THE AREA INTO WED. THIS FEATURE
WILL THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS ONLY COOL MARGINALLY TUE NGT ALOFT...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
COOLING AT THE SFC...THUS HAVE HELD ONTO TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 20S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEN FOR WED WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY AND P-CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO WARM BACK ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE
LOW/MID 30S.
WEAK MID-LVL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD WED AFTN/EVE...WITH SFC RIDGING
KEEPING A SLIGHT INFLUENCE OVER THE CWFA THRU EARLY EVE. THIS SHUD
KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WED NGT/EARLY THUR.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP THAT CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED BY NUMEROUS
FORECAST MODELS. WHILE SOME CORRECTIONS CONTINUE TO TAKE
PLACE...WITH RESPECT TO THE PLACEMENT/INTENSITY OF THE DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR. 500MB TROUGH REMAINS MORE OF AN ELONGATED
SETUP...WITH THE VORT MAX OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DESPITE THE
TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS OF COLORADO EARLY
THUR. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ON
THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES NEAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THUR. WITH
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY STREAM NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
ENSEMBLES HAVE MAINTAINED A DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PWAT VALUES
NEARING 1" FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 IN NORTHERN
IL/NORTHWEST IN THUR...WITH STRONG MFLUX CONVERGENCE AT 850MB. THIS
COUPLED WITH A VERY ROBUST LLVL JET...AND STRONG INSTABILITY...POINT
TOWARDS NOT ONLY THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAIN GIVEN THE SURGE IN
WARM AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC HAS A PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...OUTLOOKED FOR POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THIS REMAINS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER LINE FOR THE MAIN
FOCUS AREA...HOWEVER GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING/INTENSITY/PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THIS WILL LIKELY BE
ADJUSTED OVER TIME.
SHORTWAVE THEN SLIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THUR EVE...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING AN END TO THE MILD AIRMASS AND RETURNING
P-TYPE BACK TO LGT SNOW BEFORE ENDING FRI MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTER TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID/UPR 40S THUR...FRI HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDS IN THE LOW/MID 30S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK PATTERN IS PROGGED TO
RETURN TO WHAT HAS BEEN A COMMON PATTERN OF TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING PUSHING INTO WESTERN
CANADA. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS.
THEN GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A COUPLE WEAK MID-LVL WAVES TRAVERSING
THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ENHANCED CONCERN
REGARDING FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE DETAIL METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION IS ABOVE.
NO CHANGES REALLY TO THE PREVIOUS HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION OTHER
THAN SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE AFTER TODAY`S SNOW SYSTEM. WILL FRESHEN UP THE ESF
AGAIN THIS MORNING BUT NOT PLANNING ANY BIG CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING ACROSS BOTH MDW/ORD THRU 10Z.
* WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20KT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WHILE
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH BLOWING SNOW ENDING.
* PATCHY FOG THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH VIS IN THE 3-5SM
RANGE.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION...WITH THE LOW
STRATUS LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA. THIS STRATUS IS PROGRESSIVE WITH BOTH DISTANCE SPEED TOOL
AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE BOTH TAKING THIS STRATUS EAST OF ALL THE
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. WITH ITS DEPARTURE...DONT
ANTICIPATE MUCH IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. AT THIS TIME...THE NEXT SYSTEM TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA SHOULD ONLY BRING ABOUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATER
TUESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME
POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD RAPIDLY DROP OFF HERE
IN THE NEAR TERM WITH SURFACE RIDGING OCCURRING. AS THEY DECREASE
IN SPEED...WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND
THEN INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH MID DAY.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CEILING TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION...AND BLOWING SNOW
TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH FOG AND VIS.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR FZRA DEVELOPING.
THURSDAY..RAIN/FOG/IFR LIKELY. CHANCE THUNDER. FZRA POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING.
FRIDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
300 PM CST
HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THIS EVENING AS A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN...BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH THE NERN CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE
TONIGHT AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE FRONT...SETTING
UP A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY VARIABLE...BUT WEAKER WINDS OVER THE
LAKE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
SRN CANADA...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE
FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE LAKES...SLY-SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO ARND 30KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAKER LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND A STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTH HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL BE THE MAIN SYSTEM OF
CONCERN AS IT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH
ERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LAKE. SWLY WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED GALE FORCE WHILE SHIFTING
TO WLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1156 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA... HEAVY AT TIMES
THIS EVENING. SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MIX WITH THE SNOW
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 IN INDIANA AND OHIO. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...HEAVIEST ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN. BRISK WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
OVERNIGHT CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 20... WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW CONTG TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS EVE.
THIS SHOULD END ACROSS OUR AREA FROM WEST-EAST OVERNIGHT AS
DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW MOVES ENE INTO THE LWR GRTLKS. WSW WINDS
PICKING UP ACROSS SW PORTION OF CWA IN WAKE OF SFC LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NE PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT... THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
SNOWFALL RATES 2-3.5 INCHES/HR IN XTRMLY HVY TSSN ENTERING WRN CWA.
CONTD VERY SIMILAR RAP/NAM/PREV BLENDED APPROACH UTILIZED WITH
MIDDAY UPDATE. GENERAL CONTD CONSENSUS OF SREF MEAN AND TIGHT PLUME
PACK IN ADDITION TO 12 UTC NAM COBB OUTPUT SUPPORTS LATEST EVENT
TOTALS IN PRIOR 1233 PM EST WSW UPDATE WITH HIEST GENRLY ALONG NORTH
OF TOLL ROAD. THANKFULLY XTRM RATES BRIEF AND WITH TRANSITION TO
LESS THAN OPTIMAL FLAKE SIZE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD
KEEP MAJORITY OF ACCUMS TO LTE 6 INCHES. SOME CONCERN THOUGH FOR HIR
AMOUNTS WITH TROWAL LIFTING ACRS FAR NRN CWA THIS EVENING PRIOR TO
LIFTG FARTHER N OF CWA BYND 03 UTC...INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT IT WILL
LIE OUT E-W JUST NORTH OF CWA...BEFORE GRDL EWD LIFTOUT. LEADING
WARM CONVEYOR BELT INTENSE WITH XTRM MSTR TAP WITH 6-7 G/KG ON I295K
SFC SLIDES EWD THROUGH SRN IN THIS EVENING...PROVIDING XTRM
MFLUX/UVM ATOP NOSE OF RAMPING SWRLY 850-7H JET AXIS. JETLET OF 65
KTS AT 21 UTC POSITIONED ACRS SRN IN...STRENGTHENS TO 75 KTS MEAN
LYR FLOW INTO SRN OH BY 00 UTC. SPECIAL KILX MIDDAY SNDG YIELDS 320
J/KG MUCAPE/LIFTED FM 7H AND WHILE LATEST RAP TREND NOTED DOWNWARD
WRT MUCAPE WL CONT WITH PRIOR AREA ADDED AND HAVE NOW INCLUDED FAR
ERN AREAS AS WELL IN 22-02 UTC TIMEFRAME GIVEN APPROACH OF STOUT 6-7
C/KM MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATE PLUME AND SYSTEM DEEPENING. MID LVL
CIRC AND TO CLOSE OFF ACRS CHICAGOLAND SHORTLY AND TRACK EWD TO
WINDSOR ONT BY 09 UTC TUE...ALSO SUGGESTING HIEST AMOUNTS HERE/JUST
NORTH OF CWA...WHERE HIGHLY ELEVATED MAX UVM BEST COLLOCATED WITHIN
A SATURATED DGZ. RAPID CRASH OF CLOUD DEPTH IN WAKE OF SYSTEM IN
PERTURBED MOIST BLYR STILL SUGGESTIVE OF BRIEF LIGHT FZDZSN POTNL AT
BEFORE ENDING. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER INTO TUE AWAITING
SHORTWAVE 925MB RIDGING THAT STILL HOLDS JUST WEST FM KGRB INTO NERN
IL AT 12 UTC TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
FOCUS CONTINUES ON WARMER TEMPERATURES/ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH FRIDAY AND FLOODING/SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION LATE TUES NGT INTO
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BE STARVED OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEADING TO A
GENERALLY QUIET PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND COMPARED TO THE AIR OF THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS WILL FEEL DOWNRIGHT NICE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE
START OF THE MELTDOWN OF THE LARGE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S...KEEPING ANY FOG FORMATION AWAY
AND ALLOWING FOR A SLOW RELEASE AND NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES.
PIECE OF ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW WILL DROP
INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND CARVE OUT A DEEPENING TROUGH WHICH WILL
ALLOW A SURGE OF EVEN WARMER AIR STARTING LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURS
GULF OF MEXICO OPENING WIDE TO SEND ABUNDANT MSTR TO THE REGION.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PRECIP ARRIVING LATE WEDS NGT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SHOW ABOVE FREEZING
VALUES...HOWEVER REMAINING SNOWPACK MAY POSE A INITIAL CHALLENGE AND
THREAT OF BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT ONSET OF RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...BY MID THURSDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AND
ANY ICING THREAT OVER. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. IN
ADDITION...LAST FEW FRAMES OF NAM12 AND HINTS ON ECMWF/GFS INDICATE
NEGATIVE SHOWWALTER VALUES BEGIN TO NUDGE IN BY LATE MORNING IN
WESTERN AREAS AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURS AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MSTR RETURN AS SFC DEWPTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
50S IN SE HALF. WHILE SOME MODELS HINT THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN
PRECIP...HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH CAT POPS...INTRODUCED THUNDER
WEST LATE AM AND INCREASED TO CHC THUNDER ALL AREAS THURS AFTN.
CONTINUED MENTION OF FOG WHICH WILL LIKELY BE DENSE AS DWPTS CLIMB
ABOVE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOK TO BE THROUGH THURS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE AFTN INTO EVENING AS
COLD FRONT ARRIVES. IN TERMS OF FLOODING THREAT...GREATEST RELEASE
WILL OCCUR INTO THURS EVE AND ONLY SLOW DOWN SOMEWHAT THURS NGT WITH
TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY. IF ADVERTISED
DEWPOINTS DO ARRIVE...LIKELY WON`T BE MUCH OF A SNOWPACK LEFT WITH
FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOW
40S WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MELTING. HWO AND ESF HAVE THIS HANDLED
WELL THUS FAR SO NO CHANGES PLANNED. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS
FURTHER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MSTR...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG
LL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 60 KTS PLUS...THREAT FOR STG-SVR STORMS DOES
EXIST AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SPC PLACED IN/OH UNDER DAY 4
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE ON MORNING ISSUANCE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON
MENTION IN HWO.
SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND TO WRECK
HAVOC WITH TEMPS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS EVEN INTO SAT REMAIN NEAR OR
ABOVE FREEZING. MORE SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP BACK TO -10 C OR
LOWER. CHANCE FOR PRECIP MAY ARRIVE WITH EACH CLIPPER SYSTEM BUT
KEEPING WITH GOING FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR NOW AS
TIMING/TRACK ISSUES ABOUND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING ON BACKSIDE OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME
-SN/FZDZ AND IFR/LOW MVFR VISBY`S WILL LIKELY LINGER AT MAINLY FWA
ALONG TRAILING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AXIS THROUGH 10Z. SIGNIFICANT
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTN WITH EVENTUAL BREAKUP OF LINGERING MVFR STRATUS DECK.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTN/EVE AS ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE IN PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC FLOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. VERY SHALLOW MIXING DEPTHS WILL LIMIT SFC WINDS WITH 55-60
KT LLJ WARRANTING A LLWS MENTION.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
142 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2014
...Updated for the short term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
An upper level, sharply amplified trough over the Great Lakes region
will move northeast today and tonight. A zonal westerly flow from
the Rockies into to the plains will persist today. The main affect
will be streaming cirrus clouds across Kansas, and a slight down
slope warming affect. Nearer the surface, a low level jet of around
40 knots will set up across western Kansas towards 12z this morning,
and persist until it migrates to the east by 18z. This jet will mix
down partially, but probably not totally. Therefore, I think winds
will be from the southwest at 15 mph gusting to near 30 mph today,
and subside to westerly at 10 to 20 mph after 20z. A weak cold
front will drop south through the afternoon, and this will cause
winds to shift to the west as well. It will be unseasonably warm
with highs ranging from the mid 60s near Hays to the lower 70s
around Elkhart. Max temps may occur early today, prior to the cold
frontal passage. I loaded model Dew Points from the EC, GFS, NAM,
RUC and HRRR models, and the only model with lower dew points than
the others was the HRRR model. If the HRRR guidance Dew Points are
correct, we would have RH`s below 15% in our western half. But
since the other 4 models favored Dew Points in the upper teens and
20s, plus the fact that frequent gusts to 25 mph do not seem
likely, I decided not to issue a Red Flag Warning today. It should
be windier to the north of our forecast area, as well as drier, so
I can see the reason for fire headlines to my north.
The tonight period was not changed. The flow aloft will still be
from the west, and surface high pressure will be in control. Low
temperatures will be relatively mild for mid February, and should
settle into the 30F degree range in our western zones near Syracuse
and Johnson City, into the lower 30s in our north around Hays and
Ness City, and to the middle 30s in locations such as Medicine
Lodge, Pratt and Coldwater. Winds tonight should drop off fairly
mild from an east to northeast direction with that high building
down. By morning, winds should be from the south at 5 to 10 mph.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014
The extended period starts out dry with partly cloudy skies Tuesday
night into Wednesday with an increase in clouds Wednesday afternoon.
The main concern in the extended period will be Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper level shortwave moves into the Rockies
Wednesday night and into the Plains on Thursday. This feature will
help push a cold front through western Kansas overnight Wednesday
shifting winds to more of a northerly direction with windy
conditions. A wind advisory may be needed overnight but do not have
enough confidence to place it in the grids at this time. A chance of
precipitation will also accompany this system with northern Kansas
having the best chance. Precipitation should start out as rain
Wednesday evening possibly changing over to snow as temperatures
fall to around and below zero. This system is still a few days out
so confidence in the exact timing and position of this system is
still low. Decreasing clouds are expected Thursday night into Friday
as the system moves to the east. The remainder of the forecast
period looks dry with partly cloudy skies. This is due to upper
level ridging across the western US with northwest flow aloft across
the Central High Plains. A weak shortwave is progged to move
southeast through this flow this weekend pushing a surface cold
front across the area on Saturday.
As for temperatures, highs Wednesday are expected to be around 60
degrees then decreasing to the 40s on Thursday behind the
aforementioned cold front. Lows Wednesday and Thursday morning are
anticipated to be in the lower to mid 30s. A brief warm up is
expected Friday as highs reach into the mid 50s. However, this will
be short lived as the next cold front moves through the area
Saturday with highs back in the 40s Saturday and Sunday. Lows Friday
through Sunday morning are forecasted to dip into the mid to upper
20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014
There will a low level jet setting up this morning, with winds
starting out from the southwest at 16g25kt. Plenty of high level
cirrus will be streaming by to the east, but will not lower any
cigs. Flight conditions will stay VFR through the 24 hour period.
Surface winds will shift to the west around 15 to 16Z, as a trough
crosses from west to east.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 34 61 35 / 0 0 10 20
GCK 67 33 62 33 / 0 0 10 20
EHA 70 35 67 34 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 70 34 66 35 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 65 32 59 34 / 0 0 10 30
P28 67 36 60 41 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GRAY ME
418 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL RACE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST INTO
THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
A VERY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND WILL AID IN RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE WAA IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST PA INTO CENTRAL NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT.
THE REAL SHOW LOOKS TO GET GOING LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP OVER LONG ISLAND NY OR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF. AS THIS
HAPPENS...STRONG DYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS WILL GO INTO MOTION AND
ALLOW A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO BLOSSOM OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND HEAD NNEWD. THIS OCCURS AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS VIA STRONG EASTERLY INFLOW UPGLIDING INTO A
STRENGTHENING DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULTANT
COMMA HEAD THAT DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THEN
RIDE NNEWD INTO SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERNMOST ME BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD NEWD FROM THERE...AFFECTING THE
REST OF THE WARNING AREA MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE VARIOUS 00Z MODELS...INCLUDING LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR
ARE ALL IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR WEST THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDING WILL EXTEND. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS FOR
THE AXIS OF MAX QPF AND RESULTANT SNOWFALL TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF NEW HAMPSHIRE NORTHWARD TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF MAINE TO JUST SOUTH OF AUGUSTA. THE BANDING THEN WANES AS
THE SYSTEM STOPS DEEPENING...THEREFORE...LOWER AMOUNTS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED NORTHEAST OF THE WARNING AREA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING AT THIS TIME THAT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE
RAP AND VARIOUS 4KM WRF MODELS ARE MORE POTENT...WITH MORE QPF
OVER A WIDER AREA. WHILE THEY ARE LIKELY SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...THIS
SITUATION MAY LEND MORE CREDENCE TO THEM AS THEY MAY BE CAPTURING
THE MESOSCALE PROCESSES BETTER THAN THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS.
THEREFORE...THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO ASSESS TRENDS AND SEE IF
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED.
ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES MAY
LEAD TO LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...ONCE THE BANDING SETS
IN...SNOW SHOULD BE THE FAVORED PRECIP TYPE. THE SNOW MAY BE WET
THERE...SO SOME POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE.
FORECAST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
OVERLY HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN PERSISTENT BANDING.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR FOR A
TIME...PROBABLY DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A
HIGH-IMPACT EVENT. ISOLD THUNDER MAY EVEN OCCUR IN THE HEAVIEST
BANDING.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST
ZONES...AND FINALLY END ON THE MID COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST
ZONES...AND FINALLY END ON THE MID COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NO REST FOR THE WEARY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
WEAKER AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN TODAY/S SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SPINNING UP LOW PRESSURE CLOSE TO THE COAST
FASTER THAT PREVIOUS RUNS...ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THIS
OCCURS...ESPECIALLY LIKELY ECMWF IS SHOWING...MORE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF PORTLAND TO THE
MID COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN UP JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE LOW PRESSURE MAY SPIN UP QUICK ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ADVISORIES IN MID COAST MAINE AND FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF
THE FORECAST AREA. QPF FROM THE NEW ECMWF HAS INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM LAST NIGHT IN THESE AREAS.
IN ANY CASE...LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RACE INTO THE MARITIMES
BEFORE MIDNIGHT BRINGING A QUICK END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT LINGERING
CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. WILL
ACTUALLY SEE HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AND A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN ZONES AND
SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIP IN NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE TAPERING OFF
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING. QPF NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS INITIAL
BURST OF OVER-RUNNING PRECIP BUT WILL LIKELY CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON FRIDAY. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE A QUICK
HITTER WITH PRECIP PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY BEFORE CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT PUSH IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS POINT IN TIME...APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WITH A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE WITH THE
FROPA. EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION AS THIS MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM QUICKLY BLOWS THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL INVADE NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO LIFR IN HEAVY SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO VFR RETURNS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...MVFR OF LOWER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN SNOW
AND/OR RAIN WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THURSDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE CRANKS UP IN THE GULF OF MAINE. SCA RETURNS LATER
TONIGHT AND FOR WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
GALES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>020-023>026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ012>014-021-022-027-028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ006-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>005-007-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ008-010-013.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...EKSTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
417 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL RACE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST INTO
THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
A VERY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND WILL AID IN RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE WAA IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST PA INTO CENTRAL NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT.
THE REAL SHOW LOOKS TO GET GOING LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP OVER LONG ISLAND NY OR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF. AS THIS
HAPPENS...STRONG DYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS WILL GO INTO MOTION AND
ALLOW A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO BLOSSOM OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND HEAD NNEWD. THIS OCCURS AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS VIA STRONG EASTERLY INFLOW UPGLIDING INTO A
STRENGTHENING DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULTANT
COMMA HEAD THAT DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THEN
RIDE NNEWD INTO SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERNMOST ME BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD NEWD FROM THERE...AFFECTING THE
REST OF THE WARNING AREA MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE VARIOUS 00Z MODELS...INCLUDING LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR
ARE ALL IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR WEST THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDING WILL EXTEND. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS FOR
THE AXIS OF MAX QPF AND RESULTANT SNOWFALL TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF NEW HAMPSHIRE NORTHWARD TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF MAINE TO JUST SOUTH OF AUGUSTA. THE BANDING THEN WANES AS
THE SYSTEM STOPS DEEPENING...THEREFORE...LOWER AMOUNTS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED NORTHEAST OF THE WARNING AREA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING AT THIS TIME THAT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE
RAP AND VARIOUS 4KM WRF MODELS ARE MORE POTENT...WITH MORE QPF
OVER A WIDER AREA. WHILE THEY ARE LIKELY SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...THIS
SITUATION MAY LEND MORE CREDENCE TO THEM AS THEY MAY BE CAPTURING
THE MESOSCALE PROCESSES BETTER THAN THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS.
THEREFORE...THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO ASSESS TRENDS AND SEE IF
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED.
ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES MAY
LEAD TO LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...ONCE THE BANDING SETS
IN...SNOW SHOULD BE THE FAVORED PRECIP TYPE. THE SNOW MAY BE WET
THERE...SO SOME POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE.
FORECAST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
OVERLY HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN PERSISTENT BANDING.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR FOR A
TIME...PROBABLY DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE WITH LIKELY ALLOW FOR A
HIGH-IMPACT EVENT. ISOLD THUNDER MAY EVEN OCCUR IN THE HEAVIEST
BANDING.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST
ZONES...AND FINALLY END ON THE MID COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST
ZONES...AND FINALLY END ON THE MID COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NO REST FOR THE WEARY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
WEAKER AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN TODAY/S SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SPINNING UP LOW PRESSURE CLOSE TO THE COAST
FASTER THAT PREVIOUS RUNS...ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THIS
OCCURS...ESPECIALLY LIKELY ECMWF IS SHOWING...MORE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF PORTLAND TO THE
MID COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN UP JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE LOW PRESSURE MAY SPIN UP QUICK ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ADVISORIES IN MID COAST MAINE AND FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF
THE FORECAST AREA. QPF FROM THE NEW ECMWF HAS INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM LAST NIGHT IN THESE AREAS.
IN ANY CASE...LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RACE INTO THE MARITIMES
BEFORE MIDNIGHT BRINGING A QUICK END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT LINGERING
CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. WILL
ACTUALLY SEE HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AND A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN ZONES AND
SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIP IN NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE TAPERING OFF
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING. QPF NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS INITIAL
BURST OF OVER-RUNNING PRECIP BUT WILL LIKELY CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON FRIDAY. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE A QUICK
HITTER WITH PRECIP PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY BEFORE CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT PUSH IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS POINT IN TIME...APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WITH A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE WITH THE
FROPA. EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION AS THIS MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM QUICKLY BLOWS THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL INVADE NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO LIFR IN HEAVY SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO VFR RETURNS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...MVFR OF LOWER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN SNOW
AND/OR RAIN WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THURSDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE CRANKS UP IN THE GULF OF MAINE. SCA RETURNS LATER
TONIGHT AND FOR WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
GALES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>020-023>026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ012>014-021-022-027-028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ006-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>005-007-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ008-010-013.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...EKSTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
456 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN THROUGH
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ALL PCPN E OF I-95. HV CANX REST OF WINTER WX ADVY.
ALSO...HV NOTED PCPN DVLP SE OF SNOW BAND ACRS SRN MD. RDR AND
MTRS SUGGEST THIS TO BE SOMETHING OTR THAN SNW. RAP MDL SNDGS
SUPPORT MOST OBS SUGGESTING SLEET...HWVR SOME PCPN SCHEMES SUGGEST
SOME FZRA TOO. HV ADDED A MIX TO GRIDS AND ISSUED SPS. REGARDLESS
OF TYPE...IT/LL BE DONE ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA BY 6AM.
PRVS DSCN...
WATER VAPOR IMGRY AND SFC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT LOPRES OVER THE
ERN GRTLKS...PROGGED TO HEAD TWD THE ST LAWR VLY. THIS RTE IS
FURTHER N THAT PRVS PROGS...AND KEEP ENERGY TOO FAR AWAY FM CWFA
TO SUPPORT APPRECIATIVE PCPN. CSTL RDVLPMNT LOOKING TO TAKE PLACE
OFF LONG ISLAND OR SNE...WHICH IS ALSO TOO FAR N FOR US. WITH THAT
IN MIND... HV LWRD QPF BY ABT HALF...WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY LWRD SNW
ACCUMS. AS A RESULT...HV CANX WINTER WX ADVY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
AM HANGING ONTO NE MD /FREDERICK TO HARFORD/BALT CITY/ AS AREA
POSITIONED FOR BEST SUPPORT AND HV SNOW HEADED THAT WAY.
ELSW...PCPN STILL LKLY... BUT ACCUMS MINIMAL. AM KEEPING IT MAINLY
SNOW FOR SIMPLICITY...BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THERE WL BE A RA/SN
LINE ACRS SRN MD. CHC FOR MIXED PCPN MINIMAL.
ANY LINGERING PCPN SHUD BE PULLING E OF THE AREA BY 12Z...W/ RAPID
CLRG MVG IN BHD IT. THE PD OF POTL UPSLP SEEM MINIMAL AS WNDS DONT
VEER MUCH MORE THAN WLY /AND THE LAKES FRZN ANYWAYS/. CAA BHD TROF
DOES KICK UP MOMENTUM TRANSFER...AND HV G20 KT IN THE AFTN /G30 KT
IN THE APLCNS/.
WLY WNDS BHD TROF AXIS WL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND...AND FLLWD MOS
MEAN FOR MAXT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ZNL FLOW WL BE IN PLACE TNGT-TMRW...W/ BRIEF SFC RDGG. A NRN STREAM
S/WV WL DROP A WK CDFNT ACRS THE AREA WED...MOST LKLY LT MRNG. WL BE
INCRSG CLDS ELY MRNG...AND INTRODUCING CHC RA INTO THE FCST. ALTHO
TEMPS TNGT WL BE MOSTLY SUBFRZG...SWLY FLOW/WAA WL BE SUFFICIENT TO
BRING TEMPS ABV BEFORE PCPN STARTS. AGN...GOOD MIXING WL FLLW FNT...
PROVIDING A BRZY AFTN. THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING SHUD OFFSET ANY
CAA...AND HV TEMPS WED HIER THAN TUE-- BTWN MET/MAV MOS BUT TWD THE
WARMER EDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON WED NIGHT...THEN OFF THE NC COAST ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME NICE WARM GULF OF MX FLOW INTO
REGION. ACTUALLY...TEMPS ARE PROGGED BY THE MEX IN THE LOWER 50S
WHICH IS ONLY A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF FEB...BUT
WILL SEEM LIKE SPRING WITH THE COLD WX SO FAR THIS MONTH. FRI SHOULD/COULD
BE EVEN WARMER AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A TIME DESPITE
CLOUDS. THE TIMING...CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS CONTRIBUTE TO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW HIGH WE GET ON FRI.
FRIDAY ALSO HAS THE MAKING OF AN INTERESTING DAY WITH SVR
POTENTIAL ASSOC WITH THE STRONG FROPA. YESTERDAY...SPC HAD REGION
IN DAY 5 OUTLOOK. HARD TO THINK ABOUT SVR WITH A SNOWPACK IN PLACE
BUT H85 JET OF 70+KTS IS PRESENT IN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOS PER
00Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. SEVERE POTL WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS BEING QUICKER WITH PREDAWN
FROPA FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE ECMWF TRAILING BY 6-12 HOURS LATER
WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE OF A SVR POTENTIAL.
AFTER FROPA FRI...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AGAIN THROUGH SAT. 00Z
ECMWF HAVE A CLIPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST
US...JUST CATCHING THE CWA ON THE SOUTHERN PCPN GRADIENT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FLGT CATEGORIES HV BEEN VARIABLE IN REPONSE TO AREAS OF SNW.
HWVR...MOST OF THOSE CHGS HV ALREADY HPPND. STILL MVFR TO PERHAPS
BRIEF IFR PSBL FOR METRO TERMINALS THRU 11Z. /MOST OF THE
RESTRICTIONS HV ALREADY TAKEN PLACE AT MRB./ AFTER THAT...CONDS
SHUD IMPRV TO VFR...AND REMAIN THERE THRU TNGT.
A CDFNT WL APPROACH TERMINALS WED MRNG...AND MVFR CONDS SHUD RTN
THEN. VFR FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...BUT MVFR RETURNS ON
FRI WITH POTL TSTMS AND LLWS WITH STRONG LLVL JET OF 60-70KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SELY WNDS HV SUBSIDED ACRS MARINE AREA. SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
THE MRNG. HWVR...WLY WNDS WL INCR ONCE AGN BHD TROF AXIS LATER
TDA. SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS 11AM-5PM. A BRIEF PD OF RDGG
TNGT WL SUPPORT DIMINISHING WNDS. THEN...ANTHR WK CDFNT WL DROP
ACRS WATERS WED MIDDAY. MOMENTUM TRANSFER BHD THIS CDFNT
SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE A RTN TO SCA FOR WED AFTN AS WELL.
MARINE WINDS BLO SCA UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN SCA IS
LIKELY. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE STRONG LLVL WIND
FIELDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...BUT WITH WARM AIR OVER COLDER
WATERS. HOWEVER...HAVE RAISED THE POTL OF GLW FOR FRIDAY FOR NOW.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...LEE/HTS
MARINE...LEE/HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
448 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHRTWVS...THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL IL. MODERATE 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV FARTHER NORTH AHEAD OF A WEAKER SHRTWV OVER NW WI
SUPPORTED LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FORM NRN WI THROUGH UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE HEAVIER SNOW THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN PORTION OF THE
CWA...WHERE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY AFTER
21Z. DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY EXITS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SE OF REGION AND LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN WITH
STRONG MID LVL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING LATE TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL BRUSH
LAKE SUPERIOR. A BAND OF 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...925-850 MB RH FCST SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH CLEARING AND SUNSHINE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE LOW AND MID 30S NORTH AND EAST AND THE UPPER 30S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT QUIET COMPARED TO LATE
THIS WEEK. RAN WITH MENTION OF FZDZ OVR NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST CWA
EARLY WEDNESDAY WHERE ONSHORE/UPSLOPING FLOW IS FORECAST ALONG WITH
MOISTURE TO H9 AND EVEN SOME LIFT WITHIN THAT MOIST LAYER. SPEED
SHEAR ALSO THERE WHICH CAN SOMETIMES ENHANCE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. AFTER
LOW CLOUDS GET OUT OF THE WAY BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...NUDGED TEMPS UP
IN THE AFTN WITH READINGS OVER INTERIOR WEST AND SCNTRL POSSIBLY
CRACKING 40 DEGREES AS GEM GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR A FEW DAYS NOW.
FORECAST GETS VERY INTERESTING BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
NO DOUBT ABOUT IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO LATCH ON TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A VERY MAJOR AND HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AND THIS IS JUST THE WINTER SIDE TO
THIS SYSTEM. SEVERE WEATHER...MAYBE EVEN FORM OF A LARGER SCALE
SQUALL LINE...COULD AFFECT OHIO VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MAYBE
AS FAR NORTH AS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
ON THAT FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES AS FAR NORTH
AS UPPER GREAT LAKES ON NOSE OF DRY SLOT WORKING THROUGH LATER
THURSDAY. SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK DOES HAVE EASTERN HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN IN
GENERAL THUNDER PROBS.
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN MSLP/THERMAL FIELDS THE LAST FEW RUNS
FROM THE MAIN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH IS
IMPRESSIVE. ENTHUSIASM AND CONFIDENCE IN MODEL AGREEMENT IS TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT THOUGH AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE THAT WILL HELP DEVELOP THE
STRONG SFC LOW IS STILL OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING AND THE
FORECAST STRONG DEEPENING OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WITH IT
ARE DIRECTLY DEPENDANT ON PHASING OF SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WITH
INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS IS ALWAYS A TRICKY
PROPOSITION. PROBABLY WILL SEE SOME SHIFTING AROUND IN TERMS OF
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF LOW AND WARM LAYER ALOFT. IF IT ALL COMES TO
FRUITION AS MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE THOUGH...SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM
WOULD IMPACT UPR MICHIGAN. WOULD ALSO BE ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT PER
1000-850/850-700MB THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS FOR SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTH AND EAST CWA...MAINLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
DEGREE OF ICING IS UNCERTAIN...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON TREATMENT OF
ROADS AND ALSO TIMING OF SWITCH OVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN. WPC WWD GRAPHICS
INDICATE SNOW AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY OF 8-10 INCHES TAPERING TO 4-6 INCHES OVER EASTERN CWA ALONG
WITH ICE AMOUNTS THERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
IMPACT TOWARD THE END OF THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW WOULD BE A FULL
FLEDGED BLIZZARD ALONG EXPOSED SHORELINE OF WESTERN LK SUPERIOR
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. FORECAST SUB 970MB LOW TO NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR AT 12Z
FRIDAY WITH WEST WINDS AT H85 OF 45 KTS AND SUFFICIENT MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AT H85-H7 WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -12C WOULD BE BAD
ENOUGH ON ITS OWN. ADD FACT THAT WESTERN LK SUPERIOR IS COVERED WITH
ICE AND THERE WILL BE ONGOING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IT CERTAINLY SEEMS THERE ARE THE MAKINGS OF
WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE U.P. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WOULD BE IMPACTED BY CONSIDERABLE BLSN DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE SFC
LOW. WORST CONDITIONS WOULD BE ON THE KEWEENAW THOUGH. SYSTEM REALLY
BEARS WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUCH HIGH IMPACTS FROM THE
SNOW...ICE...AND WIND. IF THIS SYSTEM ENDS UP AS FORECAST RIGHT
NOW...A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. WILL START OUT HIGHLIGHTING IT THIS
MORNING BY ISSUING AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. ALSO WILL KEEP
MENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
REST OF EXTENDED...KEPT WITH MONDAY DAYSHIFT THINKING OF SMALL CHANCE
POPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR FOR WNW/W FLOW AREAS AS TEMPS ARE SUFFICIENTLY
COLD FOR LAKE EFFECT RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOT OF ICE ON LK
SUPERIOR BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH OPEN WATER APPEARS
AFTER THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. AWAY FM ANY LAKE
EFFECT...THE RETURNING COLD WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH READINGS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE TEENS. BEYOND THE EXTENDED...COLD
REGIME LOOKS TO REASSERT ITSELF AS WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TIED TO THE
PERSISTENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN REAPPEARS. 00Z ECMWF BACKED OFF SOME
BUT STILL LOOKS QUITE COLD BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN
NEAR -28C. PROBABLY WILL BE DEALING WITH A RETURN OF WIND CHILL ISSUES
BY THAT TIME. MORAL OF THE STORY...ENJOY BRIEF RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS
AS BY THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND THEY WILL BE JUST A DISTANT MEMORY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SNOW TAPERS OFF AND WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 30 KTS THROUGH WED. POTENTIAL FOR
A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH PRESSURE
LOWER THAN 975MB OR 29 INCHES TO LIFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. NW GALES LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WESTERLY GALES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN A
RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1246 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHRTWVS...THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL IL. MODERATE 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV FARTHER NORTH AHEAD OF A WEAKER SHRTWV OVER NW WI
SUPPORTED LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FORM NRN WI THROUGH UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE HEAVIER SNOW THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN PORTION OF THE
CWA...WHERE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY AFTER
21Z. DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY EXITS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SE OF REGION AND LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN WITH
STRONG MID LVL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING LATE TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL BRUSH
LAKE SUPERIOR. A BAND OF 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...925-850 MB RH FCST SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH CLEARING AND SUNSHINE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE LOW AND MID 30S NORTH AND EAST AND THE UPPER 30S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
PROGRESSIVE/LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WARMER
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CENTERED ON THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE WARMTH WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ALL INDICATIONS POINT
TOWARD THE RETURN OF A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED ALONG OR SLIGHTLY
INLAND OF THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MANY OF THE
GEM ENSEMBLES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE INDICATED A VERY COLD
REGIME FOR LATE FEB NEXT WEEK...AND NOW TODAYS 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A
BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS DUMPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A REINFORCING SHOT UPSTREAM YET.
DETERMINISTIC GFS RUNS OUT TO 16 DAYS HAVE SHOWN WIDE FLUCTUATION IN
THE LAST DAY OR SO... BUT RUNS KEEP APPEARING THAT MAINTAIN A VERY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF...LEADING TO A VERY COLD
PERIOD FOR THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY EVENT...AS THIS CHANGE BACK TO A
COLD PATTERN GETS UNDERWAY...ATTENTION WILL BE ON AN AMPLIFYING TROF
SHIFTING ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK. OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH PHASING OF SHORTWAVES
WITHIN THE DEEPENING TROF. HOWEVER...WITH TODAYS 12Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL RUNS...THERE ARE SOLID TRENDS TOWARD MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTING NE AND PHASING WITH A NRN BRANCH WAVE OVER
AND JUST NE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT (SNOW AND MIXED PCPN) DURING THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FCST. OUTSIDE OF THIS ONE EVENT...NOT MUCH PCPN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM.
BEGINNING TUE NIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. WITH SEVERAL DISJOINTED VORT CENTERS COMPRISING
THE TROF...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN...ESPECIALLY WITH DEEP
LAYER FORCING/MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXITING TO THE E OF THE AREA
ALREADY IN THE EVENING. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT
OF -SN/FLURRY ACTIVITY OVER THE E EARLY IN THE EVENING. AFTER
THAT...QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE MIGHT BE SOME FLURRIES OR MORE
LIKELY -FZDZ AS TEMP PROFILE IN LINGERING GENERALLY SHALLOW MOISTURE
IS ABOVE -10C. UNDER W TO WNW LOW-LEVEL WINDS...BEST CHANCE WOULD BE
OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF WRN UPPER MI AND PERHAPS THE FAR NE FCST
AREA AS WINDS VEER WNW THERE LATER IN THE NIGHT. SINCE ANY
ADDITIONAL MOISTENING THAT COULD BE PROVIDED BY LAKE SUPERIOR IS
VERY LIMITED AS THE LAKE IS NEARLY COMPLETELY ICED OVER...WILL HOLD
OFF ON INCLUDING A MENTION OF -FZDZ. TUE NIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE
WARMER NIGHTS IN QUITE A WHILE UNDER PACIFIC AIR MASS WITH WINDS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
WED WILL BE A DRY DAY AS SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTS E OF THE AREA AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE
SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGERING INTO WED MORNING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
SEE A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE WED. HIGHER MID TO LATE FEB SUN ANGLE
WORKING ON THE LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE
INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE BOARD. MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A
FEW LOCATIONS TO REACH 40F WHERE DOWNSLOPING OCCURS. WITH W TO WNW
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
OVER WRN UPPER MI AND OVER THE NE FCST AREA. IN THOSE LOCATIONS...
TEMPS SHOULDN`T RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS STRONGLY TRENDED
TOWARD MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS OF AMPLIFYING TROF
SHIFTING ACROSS THE CONUS MID AND LATE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT HAS APPEARED WITH TODAYS 12Z MODEL RUNS IS RATHER
REMARKABLE GIVEN THE VERY RECENT DISAGREEMENT...THE SHORTWAVES
INVOLVED ARE STILL IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ALEUTIANS...SUGGESTING
CONTINUED ADJUSTMENTS ARE IN THE OFFING. THAT SAID...THE
GEM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT TODAY SHOWING A SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OVER THE SRN PLAINS THU AND THEN LIFTING NE AND
PHASING WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
RESULT IS A SFC LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS THU MORNING LIFTING NE
ACROSS NW IL AND THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES JUST E OF KGRB
THEN ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU NIGHT. WITH 12HR HEIGHT FALLS OF
250-300M AT 500MB...THIS WILL BE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH A
RAPIDLY ORGANIZING/INTENSIFYING PCPN SHIELD AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES. WITH SYSTEM TAPPING A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE...
STRONG DYNAMICS WILL MAKE THIS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCER ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MI. BASED OFF 12Z MODELS WHICH ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...PTYPE SHOULD BE JUST SNOW W OF LINE ROUGHLY FROM JUST NW
MENOMINEE TO AROUND MUNISING WITH A WINTRY MIX TO THE E FOR AT LEAST
A TIME. HOWEVER...UNTIL SHORTWAVES INVOLVED ARRIVE IN THE
CONUS/CANADA...EXPECT SOME FLUCTUATION IN SYSTEM STRENGTH/TRACK AND
THERMAL FIELDS/PTYPES. POPS WILL BE RAISED ACROSS THE BOARD TO
CATEGORICAL FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THU AFTN/NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
EXACTLY HOW STRONG THE LOW BECOMES...WINDS/BLSN COULD BECOME
SIGNIFICANT ON THE BACKSIDE. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS BACKSIDE WINDS
WILL BE FROM A W TO WNW DIRECTION. IF SO...THOUGH FALLING SNOW WILL
BE MUCH LIGHTER...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
KEWEENAW WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF BLSN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR ICE
COVER. STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY LOOSEN UP ICE COVER AND CREATE
SUFFICIENT BREAKS FOR SOME LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE PULLS OUT FRI AND 850MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID -TEENS C.
ARCTIC AIR BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HOW COLD IS UNCERTAIN...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE
SOLIDLY BLO NORMAL WITH A TREND TO COLDER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND BEYOND. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME -SN AT TIMES AND PROBABLY SOME
LIMITED LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO FRACTURED ICE
COVER/SMALL OPEN WATER AREAS...NO PCPN OF SIGNIFICANCE IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS POINT SAT THRU MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SNOW TAPERS OFF AND WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 445 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 30 KTS THROUGH WED. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY. THIS WOULD
LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST TO WEST GALES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ006-007-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1152 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
SNOW CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 10Z AS MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE TAF SITES. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A BRIEF BREAK CURRENTLY
OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST AS WINDS PICK UP
BEHIND THE LOW.
FOR DTW...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER BAND
OF SNOW OCCASIONALLY BRINGS CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT LATE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 720 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
UPDATE...
UPDATED EARLY TO ISSUE THE UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT PRODUCED
RATES IN THE 1-2 INCH PER HOUR RANGE IN THE TRI CITIES WITH THE
DEFORMATION/TROWAL PORTION OF THE SYSTEM YET TO GO. DRY AIR IN
BETWEEN HAS THINGS OFF TO A SLOW START SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 69 BUT
THIS WILL BE MADE UP FOR BY BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW,
IMPLIED BY 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY, FROM ACTIVITY MOVING IN
FROM INDIANA AND OHIO.
THE LEADING QUICK 2 INCH ACCUMULATION IN THE TRI CITIES MADE THE
UPGRADE CALL A BIT EASIER EVEN WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY LEFT ON THE
THE TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS PROGRESSION. EVEN WITHOUT A PIVOT, THE
NORTH FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION NOW LOOKS CAPABLE OF 6 INCHES IN 9
HOURS OR POSSIBLY 8 INCHES IN 12 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS
INTO ONTARIO BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM. THE NORTHWARD INTRUSION OF THE
DRY SLOT WILL KEEP TOTAL ACCUMULATION IN THE ADVISORY RANGE OVER
THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE NEAR THE
OHIO BORDER WHERE SNOW PELLETS, WHILE REPRESENTING CONVECTIVE
FORCING, WILL ACTUALLY CUT INTO SNOW RATIO ENOUGH TO LIMIT
ACCUMULATION.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 353 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR HIGH
END ADVISORY SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE RANGE OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL
LIKELY VERIFY CLOSER TO THE 6 INCH END OF THE RANGE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND A SHORT FUSED WARNING
UPGRADE ALSO REMAINS IN PLAY AS THE POSITION AND CHARACTER OF
MESOSCALE FORCING BECOMES CLEARER. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN
THE TRI CITIES TO NORTHERN THUMB BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AS THEY
BECOME AVAILABLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH AN UPGRADE LIES WITH THE PROGRESSION VERSUS
PIVOT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS ON THE NORTH FLANK OF THE SYSTEM AND
THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE DRY SLOT. OBSERVATIONS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A PIVOT WHICH WOULD PERMIT HIGHER RATES FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME AND HIGHER SYSTEM TOTALS AND/OR 6 INCH AMOUNTS
COMING IN CLOSER TO 6 TO 9 HOUR TIME PERIOD. FARTHER SOUTH, A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT IN THE FORCING WILL BRING HIGH SNOWFALL RATES
AND EVEN SOME GRAUPEL/SNOW PELLETS WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT
TIMES BEFORE THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONFINES TOTAL ACCUMULATION
CLOSER TO 4 INCHES.
MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
ILLINOIS/INDIANA COMING TOGETHER IN A STRONGLY DYNAMIC FASHION.
VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS
OF CG LIGHTNING STRIKES DEPICTS THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
SITUATION, AS DOES THE SPECIAL 18Z KILX SOUNDING WITH BORDERLINE DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. NEAR TERM MODEL
FIELDS HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS AS A STRONG COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
DCVA AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ON 850 MB WIND PUSHING 50
KNOTS. THE WIND FIELD WILL EVENTUALLY GET CONVERTED TO TROWAL
FORCING WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY SETTLING IN AROUND 3 G/KG. THE
TROWAL/DEFORMATION AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SET UP NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS THE SURFACE LOW DROPS FROM 1007 MB TO NEAR
1000 MB OVER THE EAST SHORE OF LAKE ST CLAIR BY MIDNIGHT. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE WILL BE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BOTH WITHIN
THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND ON THE INTERIOR FLANK OF THE
TROWAL/THETA-E RIDGE. THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH
THE STRONG WIND FIELD WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES IN THE 1-2 INCH
PER HOUR RANGE. IN ADDITION, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES THAT DEPICT A DGZ DEPTH ROUGHLY
FROM 600 TO 800 MB THAT SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW RATIO IN THE 10-13:1
RANGE. THE NAM AND THE RAP MODELS SEEMINGLY HAVE ALSO PICKED UP ON
THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING REFLECTED IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF RANGING FROM 0.6 TO 0.8
IN THE 12 HOUR PERIOD FROM 18Z TO 06Z TONIGHT. THIS ILLUSTRATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR OVERACHIEVEMENT SHOULD MESOSCALE FORCING STALL OVER
ANY ONE REGION OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE EASTWARD ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR SNOW TO DIMINISH ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MID WEEK BEFORE BROAD TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ENERGETIC JET WILL
SHIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW A WARMUP THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S AND EVEN NEAR 40F BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
AND STRONG SYSTEM PUSHES THE MILD AIR SOUTH DROPPING US BACK INTO
THE 20S. THE DIFFICULTY IN THE TEMP FORECAST WILL BE TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT THE DEEP SNOWPACK THAT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BACK EDGE OF MONDAYS SYSTEM HOLDS OVER
THE AREA. AS THIS EXITS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
FROM A MUCH LARGER SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS...ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA...WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SW FLOW AND A WAA
PATTERN. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL CLIMB FROM -8C/-12C AT 850MB/925MB
CURRENTLY UP TO AROUND 3-5C BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDING KEEP THE BOUNDARY MUCH COOLER THOUGH WITH TEMPS STILL BELOW
0C. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX SOME OF THAT DOWN BUT THE COLD
DEEP SNOWPACK WILL WORK AGAINST IT MUCH OF TIME. WITH THE WARMEST
AIR TAKING SO LONG TO GET INTO THE AREA...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS
AROUND THE MID 30S FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAYS FORECAST WILL ALSO BE A TRICKY ONE AS A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT WE
COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES FROM THIS FRONT BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE DOES NOT TANK MUCH AS
RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. MID LEVELS DO COOL
QUITE A BIT THOUGH. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...SHOULD NOT BE TOO HARD TO GET BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
EVEN WITH SFC-800MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 0C. POTENTIAL TO ADD A
DEGREE OR TWO TO THE FORECAST BUT ONCE AGAIN WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW
SEVERE THE SNOW PACK AFFECTS THINGS BEFORE GOING TOO HIGH.
LOW PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THE TRACK AND
ORIENTATION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO ENHANCE QPF AMOUNTS AND ALSO WARM THE SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY.
EXPECTING BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 INCHES OF RAINFALL ALONG WITH
CONSIDERABLE SNOWMELT FROM THIS SYSTEM...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
RIVER/AREAL FLOOD ISSUES. AVERAGE SNOW CORES ACROSS THE REGION ARE
OVER 3 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN 16 INCHES OF SNOW
DEPTH...EXCLUDING THE 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED TONIGHT.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS
TO WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHEAST THROUGH LAKE ST CLAIR TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO BRIEFLY TOP 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR.
WINDS WILL RELAX SOME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD AGAIN LEAD TO GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY BUT THIS TIME OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SUBSTANTIAL
ICE COVERAGE ACROSS ALL MARINE AREAS WILL KEEP WAVES ABSENT FROM ALL
FORECAST PRODUCTS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054...UNTIL 4
AM TUESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...MIZ055-MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-
MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083...UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
UPDATE.......BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....DRK/MM
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
305 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIG MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 210 AM TUE...UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...HOWEVER NAM IS FASTER THAN GFS/ECMWF ON SWINGING THE UPPER
LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THIS DOESNT APPEAR TO AFFECT
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT MAY BE LINGERING OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
END QUICKLY. UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME QUASI ZONAL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...TURNING SURFACE FLOW FROM
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TO WESTERLY. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL HELP BRING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OS 217 AM TUE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES DURING THE NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND A HINT OF A WARM FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WED MORNING THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING DEEP WEST FLOW AND DECREASING CLOUDS WITH
RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BOOST TEMPS TO AROUND 70 INLAND WITH
LOW TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK DRY FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WED NIGHT THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH ON THU. GIVEN THE LIMITED
FORCING AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW
ALTHO WUDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO AS THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES NORTH THRU THE AREA THU. A WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED ON
THU WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND IF ENOUGH SUN CAN
DEVELOP. MILD/WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THU NIGHT/FRIDAY. IT STILL APPEARS
THAT MOST PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY BUT A FEW
SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE SE COAST IN THE MOIST SW FLOW LATE THU NIGHT.
GOOD BAND OF MOISTURE WILL CROSS WITH FRONT FRI AFTN AND KEPT LIKELY
POPS. MDLS SHOWING GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT INSTAB SO THERE MAY BE A
SEVERE THREAT...CONT CHC TSRA WORDING FRI AFTN. WILL BE IN WARM
SECTOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND
60S CST. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BUT MAY
GET HUNG UNDER PARALLEL STEERING FLOW UP JUST OFF THE SE COAST WITH
A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE THRU SAT MORNING. BROAD TROF
PUSHING THRU THE EASTERN STATES WILL EVENTUALLY SHUNT THE BNDRY
FARTHER OFFSHORE YIELDING GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU THE AREA WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE FRONT
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1212 AM TUE...MVFR CONDITIONS PREVELENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH WARM FRONT HANGING UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
SECTIONS. FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE...BUT NOT MOVING TOWARD SHORE AT THIS
TIME. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON SITUATION WITH
LOCATION/STRENGTH OF COASTAL TROUGH. HOWEVER IT APPEARS TOO WET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE. HAVE
LEFT THEM OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE POST SUNRISE HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING WITH GFS BRINGING IN LOWER CLOUDS EARLIER AND NAM REMAINING
CLEAR TIL SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE WED. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR AFTER
SUNSET IN THE TAFS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHRAS
ACROSS THE REGION WED MORN WITH THREAT OF SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
GENERALLY DRY WED AFTERNOON AND THU WITH MAINLY VFR...CANT RULE
OUT SCT FOG/LOW CLOUDS EARLY THU AS WARM FRONT CROSSES. BETTER CHC
OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES LATE THU NIGHT THRU FRI AS COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE REGION WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. LOOKS
LIKE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE E ON SAT WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 226 AM TUE...WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH HAS STARTED TO MOVE
WEST AT THIS TIME...TURNING FLOW OVER THE WATERS TO SOUTHEASTERLY
RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET. CENTRAL WATERS HAVING
20 KNOT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 25 AND SEAS TO 6 FEET. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN NORTHERN WATERS BY SUNRISE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THOSE WATERS. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AS GRADIENT RELAXES...DROPPING WIND AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MIDDAY. HIGH RPESSURE WILL BUILD IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BECOME WESTERLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OFFSHORE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES...BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DURING THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WSW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS WED AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. A FRONT DROPS SOUTH THRU THE AREA WED EVENING
WITH WINDS SHIFTING N THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THRU EARLY THU.
WINDS VEER TO SE/S THU/THU NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS S TO N. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY AGAIN AS S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS
FRI AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TOPPING OUT AT 6 TO 8 FT OUTER
WATERS. WINDS SHIFT N/NE WINDS AND DIMINISH BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BLO 6 FT
SATURDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...CGG/BTC
MARINE...CGG/BTC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
111 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED SOON AFTER BY A COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING
STATIONARY OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 107 AM TUE...WARM FRONT HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING...HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING ANY PROGRESSION NORTHWARD
INLAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AND WILL BE STEADY FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO...THEN START TO RISE AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH. SOME SHOWERS OFFSHORE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT RADAR
LOOPS INDICATE SHOWERS NOT MOVING TOWARD LAND...HOWEVER COULD CLIP
THE OUTER BANKS IN A FEW HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR
TO THE WEST WILL BE MOVING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH BEST
CHANCES IN NORTHERN AREAS. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT AND PRECIPITATION. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH AREA AROUND SUNRISE OR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...THE WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT THROUGH FROM THE
SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SOON AFTER THAT AROUND
MIDDAY. ALL THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE GONE SO
HAVE NO PRECIP MENTIONED AFTER 15Z. DRY DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL PUSH THE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S ALL AREAS
EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION EARLY ON
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SE STATES LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH MUCH MILDER PERIOD IN STORE. THE MORE AMPLIFIED
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BROAD TROF REPLACING THE
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NICELY TUE WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISES IN
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW TUE WITH HIGHS REACHING IN THE MID 60S INLAND.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT
BRINGING RENEWED PRECIP CHANCES. NAM/GFS/SREF FAIRLY DRY WITH MOST
QPF IMD CST WHILE ECMWF WETTER...HAVE LEANED TWRD DRIER SOLUTION
WITH CHC POPS CST TO SLIGHT CHC INLAND...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
AFTER PRECIP ENDS EXPECT BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS AS GOOD
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WED AFTERNOON WITH INLAND HIGHS UPR 60S TO
AROUND 70 INLAND.
A WEAK DRY FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT THEN LIFTS
BACK NORTH ON THU. GIVEN THE LIMITED FORCING AND LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW ALTHO WUDNT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THRU THE
AREA THU. ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED ON THU WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND IF ENOUGH SUN CAN DEVELOP.
MILD/WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA ON THU NIGHT/FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
ON PRECIP CHANCES LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI SO HAVE REMOVED
POPS THU NIGHT. GOOD BAND OF MOISTURE WILL CROSS WITH FRONT ESPCLY
FRI AFTN AND RAISED POP TO LIKELY. MDLS SHOWING GOOD SHEAR AND
DECENT INSTAB SO THERE MAY BE A SEVERE THREAT...CONT CHC TSRA
WORDING FRI AFTN. WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
70 TO 75 INLAND AND 60S CST.
GFS/ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL KEEP SMALL CHC POP CST EARLY SAT CST THEN
DRY SAT NIGHT INTO MON AS FRONT MOVES WELL OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND FRONT WITH HIGHS MAINLY UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1212 AM TUE...MVFR CONDITIONS PREVELENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH WARM FRONT HANGING UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
SECTIONS. FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE...BUT NOT MOVING TOWARD SHORE AT THIS
TIME. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON SITUATION WITH
LOCATION/STRENGTH OF COASTAL TROUGH. HOWEVER IT APPEARS TOO WET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE. HAVE
LEFT THEM OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE POST SUNRISE HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING WITH GFS BRINGING IN LOWER CLOUDS EARLIER AND NAM REMAINING
CLEAR TIL SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE WED. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR AFTER
SUNSET IN THE TAFS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...VFR TUE EVENING WITH MCLR SKIES. QUICK MOVING
SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND POSS SOME SHRA ACROSS REGION LATE
TUE NIGHT AND WED MORN WITH THREAT OF SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
GENERALLY DRY WED AFTERNOON AND THU WITH MAINLY VFR...CANT RULE
OUT SCT FOG/LOW CLOUDS EARLY THU AS WARM FRONT CROSSES. BETTER CHC
OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES FRI AFTN AS COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. LOOKS LIKE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL SLIDE E ON SAT WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 110 AM TUE...CONTINUING TO SEE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
WATERS THIS MORNING RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
WARM FRONT REMAINS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST. MODELS INDICATING IT
WILL MOVE THROUGH WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WATERS AFTER SUNRISE...TURNING FLOW TO WESTERLY.
PREV DISC...AS OF 1030 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA
INDICATE NE/E WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT OFF DIAMOND
SHOALS AND WELL OFF ONSLOW BAY. SEAS CONTINUE 3-5 FT MOST WATERS
THOUGH DIAMOND SHOALS HAS REPORTED 6-7 FT OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS SO
WILL MOVE BACK START OF SCA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS TO PRESENT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS. COULD SEE SEAS FALL BELOW 6
FT FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN THE NE SWELL SUBSIDING AND SW
GRADIENT DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES TUES MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING
FURTHER TO SOUTHWEST...THEN WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT/
AS OF 3 PM MON...WINDS BECOMING SW AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
KTS AGAIN LATER TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...POSS 25 KTS OUTER WTRS.
THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5 TO 7 FT CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. ANOTHER
FRONT DROPS SOUTH THRU THE AREA WED EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING N
AND DIMINISHING AGAIN. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO S AND SW THU/THU
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFT S TO THE N. THE SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO
30 KTS FRI AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TOPPING OUT AT 6 TO 8 FT
OUTER WATERS. NE WINDS EARLY SAT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/DAG/RF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
512 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED SOON AFTER BY A COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING
STATIONARY OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 PM MON...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AGAIN AS
THEY HAVE FALLEN QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG HWY 64
WHERE IT APPEARS DECOUPLED WINDS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP TO 32-34 F.
DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP LATER TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS
WHICH INDICATES SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ABOUT 40-50 NMI OFF THE
CRYSTAL COAST MOVING NORTH...AND BASED ON LATEST RAP/HRRR WHICH
BRINGS PRECIP ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST AROUND 2-3 AM EST.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ZONAL OVERNIGHT. 03Z SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATES
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST NOSING SOUTHWEST OVER
EASTERN NC WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE OF CAPE FEAR. THE
WARM FRONT HAS SHUNTED SOUTH OF ITS LOCATION A FEW HOURS AGO WHICH
WAS ROUGHLY AUGUSTA GA TO NEAR CHARLESTON SC. THE WARM FRONT IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN T/TD SPREAD
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S...REDUCED TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT WHERE LOWS SHOULD FALL TO 32-34F.
TEMPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED ELSEWHERE WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ALONG THE
COAST. CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALSO REMAIN UNCHAINED
THOUGH SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LATEST RAP/HRRR/NAM SUGGEST MOST QPF
REMAINS OFF THE COAST WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS ALONG THE OBX.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...THE WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT THROUGH FROM THE
SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SOON AFTER THAT AROUND
MIDDAY. ALL THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE GONE SO
HAVE NO PRECIP MENTIONED AFTER 15Z. DRY DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL PUSH THE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S ALL AREAS
EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION EARLY ON
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SE STATES LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH MUCH MILDER PERIOD IN STORE. THE MORE AMPLIFIED
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BROAD TROF REPLACING THE
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NICELY TUE WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISES IN
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW TUE WITH HIGHS REACHING IN THE MID 60S INLAND.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT
BRINGING RENEWED PRECIP CHANCES. NAM/GFS/SREF FAIRLY DRY WITH MOST
QPF IMD CST WHILE ECMWF WETTER...HAVE LEANED TWRD DRIER SOLUTION
WITH CHC POPS CST TO SLIGHT CHC INLAND...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
AFTER PRECIP ENDS EXPECT BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS AS GOOD
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WED AFTERNOON WITH INLAND HIGHS UPR 60S TO
AROUND 70 INLAND.
A WEAK DRY FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT THEN LIFTS
BACK NORTH ON THU. GIVEN THE LIMITED FORCING AND LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW ALTHO WUDNT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THRU THE
AREA THU. ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED ON THU WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND IF ENOUGH SUN CAN DEVELOP.
MILD/WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA ON THU NIGHT/FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
ON PRECIP CHANCES LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI SO HAVE REMOVED
POPS THU NIGHT. GOOD BAND OF MOISTURE WILL CROSS WITH FRONT ESPCLY
FRI AFTN AND RAISED POP TO LIKELY. MDLS SHOWING GOOD SHEAR AND
DECENT INSTAB SO THERE MAY BE A SEVERE THREAT...CONT CHC TSRA
WORDING FRI AFTN. WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
70 TO 75 INLAND AND 60S CST.
GFS/ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL KEEP SMALL CHC POP CST EARLY SAT CST THEN
DRY SAT NIGHT INTO MON AS FRONT MOVES WELL OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND FRONT WITH HIGHS MAINLY UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1212 AM TUE...MVFR CONDITIONS PREVELENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH WARM FRONT HANGING UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
SECTIONS. FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE...BUT NOT MOVING TOWARD SHORE AT THIS
TIME. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON SITUATION WITH
LOCATION/STRENGTH OF COASTAL TROUGH. HOWEVER IT APPEARS TOO WET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE. HAVE
LEFT THEM OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE POST SUNRISE HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING WITH GFS BRINGING IN LOWER CLOUDS EARLIER AND NAM REMAINING
CLEAR TIL SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE WED. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR AFTER
SUNSET IN THE TAFS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...VFR TUE EVENING WITH MCLR SKIES. QUICK MOVING
SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND POSS SOME SHRA ACROSS REGION LATE
TUE NIGHT AND WED MORN WITH THREAT OF SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
GENERALLY DRY WED AFTERNOON AND THU WITH MAINLY VFR...CANT RULE
OUT SCT FOG/LOW CLOUDS EARLY THU AS WARM FRONT CROSSES. BETTER CHC
OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES FRI AFTN AS COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. LOOKS LIKE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL SLIDE E ON SAT WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 1030 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE/E
WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT OFF DIAMOND SHOALS AND WELL
OFF ONSLOW BAY. SEAS CONTINUE 3-5 FT MOST WATERS THOUGH DIAMOND
SHOALS HAS REPORTED 6-7 FT OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS SO WILL MOVE BACK
START OF SCA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS TO PRESENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS. COULD SEE SEAS FALL BELOW 6 FT FOR A FEW
HOURS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN THE NE SWELL SUBSIDING AND SW GRADIENT
DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES TUES MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING FURTHER
TO SOUTHWEST...THEN WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NORTH FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT/
AS OF 3 PM MON...WINDS BECOMING SW AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
KTS AGAIN LATER TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...POSS 25 KTS OUTER WTRS.
THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5 TO 7 FT CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. ANOTHER
FRONT DROPS SOUTH THRU THE AREA WED EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING N
AND DIMINISHING AGAIN. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO S AND SW THU/THU
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFT S TO THE N. THE SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO
30 KTS FRI AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TOPPING OUT AT 6 TO 8 FT
OUTER WATERS. NE WINDS EARLY SAT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...RF/HSA/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 21Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
U.S....WITH THE BIG EXCEPTION FOR A NARROW BUT POTENT/DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN MISSOURI.
STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND A 0.5 INCH PER 12Z MPX SOUNDING BROUGHT
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SNOW WAS VERY EFFICIENT IN
REDUCING VISIBILITIES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING 3-4 HOURS OF
1/2 MILE OR LESS...AIDED TOO BY WINDS THAT GUSTED 20 TO 30 MPH.
ROADS QUICKLY DETERIORATED TOO. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE
OTHER HAND...WERE LESS THAN EXPECTED DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING.
BELIEVE SOME LEFT-OVER DRY AIR SEEN ON THE 12Z DVN SOUNDING
ABSORBED SOME OF THE SNOW...AND KEPT THE SNOW FROM ORGANIZING INTO
ONE SOLID AREA. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT ENDED UP
SHIFTING SOUTH...INITIALLY PROGGED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON
FRIDAY TO OVER THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY AND IN REALITY ENDED UP
OVER ILLINOIS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS LED TO CLEARING SKIES IN MN AND IA. WARMER AIR IS ALSO
ACCOMPANYING THE CLEARING...WITH READINGS IN THE 30S ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35.
ANY LINGERING SNOW ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING SHOULD THEN WORK ITS
WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRING OF
SHORTWAVES STRETCHING FROM WASHINGTON STATE INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THESE SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO DIG
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...A
PLUME OF WARMER 925-850MB AIR IS FORECAST...WITH 925MB TEMPS
CLIMBING TO 2-6C BY 12Z TUESDAY. THESE TEMPS GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVES APPROACH...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF FILTERED SUNSHINE AND THESE WARMER TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. BOTH THE 17.12Z GFS AND ECMWF
HINT AT SOME LIGHT QPF PRODUCED FROM THESE SHORTWAVES AS WELL IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS DEPICT A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700-900MB TO
OVERCOME...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME SPRINKLES OCCUR...THOUGH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014
THERE ARE TWO ITEMS OF CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM...A POSSIBLE HIGH
IMPACT WINTER STORM FOR THURSDAY...AND THEN MORE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MENTIONED IN YESTERDAYS
DISCUSSION MODELS HAD TRENDED AWAY FROM HAVING A CENTRAL PLAINS
STORM AFFECTING THE AREA. THAT HAS COMPLETELY CHANGED WITH THE
17.12Z MODELS. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM IS A RESULT OF PHASING OF
TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AT 12Z THURSDAY PROGGED OVER KANSAS AND THE
DAKOTAS. THE PHASING LOOKS TO BEGIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW BEING
PULLED NORTH FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO UPPER MI. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ADVECT NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF THE STORM...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO REACH
0.5-0.75 INCHES. WITH 17.12Z MODEL CONSENSUS ALL HEADING TOWARD THE
PHASED IDEA...INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR
THURSDAY. BEING PHASED...THERE ARE GOING TO BE ISSUES...
1. PRECIPITATION TYPE. THERE IS SOME WARM AIR AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WARM LAYER ALOFT TEMPS AROUND 3C...WHICH WHEN THE
INITIAL PRECIPITATION STARTS TO FALL COULD END UP BEING AS
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD THEN ALLOW
THE TYPE TO GO OVER TO SNOW. THIS IS TEMPORARY FOR THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BECAUSE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY
THURSDAY...WARM AIR COMES BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME
DAYTIME HEATING IS HELPING TO BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID 30S
ALONG THE MS RIVER AND EAST. SO A MIX WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THESE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ARE GOING TO CREATE HAVOC WITH FORECASTING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
2. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE NORTHWEST / DEFORMATION SIDE OF THIS STORM
COULD EASILY PUT DOWN SOME HEAVY SNOW IF THE PHASING OCCURS AS
PLANNED. THE NEW 17.18Z NAM REALLY HITS AN AREA FROM NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN HARD WITH UPWARDS OF 1-1.5 INCHES OF
QPF. THIS IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE 15.09Z/15.15Z SREF...BUT REFLECTS THAT WE NEED TO WATCH THE
STORM. WHERE THE DEFORMATION TRACKS TOO DEPENDS ON THE STORM TRACK.
3. WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. 925MB WINDS
FROM THE 17.12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTED TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT
IN A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME THURSDAY EVENING. THESE WINDS
COULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE BLOWING OF THE SNOW. INCREASED WINDS AND
MENTIONED BLOWING SNOW...BUT MAY NEED TO RAISE WINDS MORE.
WITH THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM STILL LINGERING AROUND...AND THAT THE
MODELS HAVE JUST TRENDED BACK TO A PHASED SYSTEM...HAVE DECIDED NOT
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...SHOULD MODELS
SHOW THE SAME THING AGAIN TONIGHT...WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...17.12Z GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COOL DOWN EACH DAY. THIS COOL DOWN IS A RESULT
OF AN OMEGA BLOCK THAT DEVELOPS FROM ALASKA DOWN THE WEST COAST OF
THE U.S...CAUSING DEEP TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. FOLLOWING A MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST...WE COULD BE
APPROACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONCERNS AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
EVEN COLDER AIR APPEARS TO BE LURKING BEYOND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE ECMWF AND CFS. THIS DEEP UPPER TROUGHING FORMING PUSHES MOST
PRECIPITATING SYSTEMS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DO HAVE SOME
LOW CHANCES OF SNOW HERE AND THERE FOR SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014
LOW MVFR CIGS BEEN STUBBORN TO CLEAR KLSE...BUT ON THE DOORSTEP PER
LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY. RAP13 RH FIELDS DO PRESS IT
EAST...AND EXPECT SKC BY 06Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUE...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SFC
BOUNDARY. NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN WITH THIS FRONT...MOSTLY MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. COULD GET SOME LOW SCT...POTENTIALLY A FEW HOURS
BKN025. GOING TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR NOW. WITH ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE FOR WED...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR A COUPLE DAYS.
THU COULD SEE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM BLAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH PROLONGED LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD
RESULT. WINDS PICK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON - WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOW
VSBYS FROM BLSN AT KRST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO SAY AS STORM
TRACK IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
855 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS
WEEK BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SE COLORADO AND NE NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME.
MEANWHILE...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSISTS TODAY ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING BY TO OUR NORTH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...SPECIFICALLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THAT
SAID...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING (SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW).
AS OF 15Z (8 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S AND THESE READINGS APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK WITH THE ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WILL MAKE CHANGES IF NEEDED.
FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/18Z. SCT-BKN ABV 20K FT. NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS LESS THAN 10 KTS...EXCEPT BECMG SW 8-14KT AFT 18/20Z
THRU 19/02Z MAINLY SE OF KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO
THIS COMING WEEKEND. SOME LOCALLY BREEZY SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY GENERATING INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES. GENERALLY EXPECTING 15-25 MPH 20
FT WINDS ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS WITH AREAS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN COCHISE...SOUTHERN GREENLEE AND SOUTHEAST
GRAHAM COUNTIES AS PER CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ZONAL FLOW DIRTIED UP WITH CIRRUS LEVEL
MOISTURE AT TIMES...BUT OTHERWISE RATHER DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
UNDER 1/3 OF AN INCH AND SURFACE DEWPTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RECEDE EARLY THIS
WEEK...BUT STILL WARM ENOUGH FOR ONE MORE DAY NEAR RECORDS IN A
COUPLE OF LOCATIONS.
LATEST HRRR STREAMLINE TRENDS HINTING AT MODEST GRADIENT ENHANCEMENT
AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TODAY. AN IMPULSE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT IN OUR PART OF
THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SOME
CONCERNS FOR THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AS ADDRESSED BELOW.
AN EVEN HIGHER LATITUDE RESOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM AS THE
REBUILDING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE NOSES IN TO CONTINUE TO KEEP US DRY
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 146 AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 148.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
400 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...MODEL DEPICTIONS SHOW THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PACIFIC JET STREAM IS JUST MOVING OVER NORTHERN COLORADO IN THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS. THE PLATTEVILLE PROFILER SHOWS WESTERLY WINDS
OF 55 KNOTS DOWN TO 650 MB...NEAR RIDGETOP LEVEL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...JUSTIFYING THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. OVER THE PAST HOUR AND A HALF THE
DOPPLER RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING THE MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE
DESCENDING OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. MESONET OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BOULDER AND GOLDEN ARE SHOWING WIND
GUSTS TO 55-75 MPH WHILE 35-45 MPH GUSTS ARE BEING RECORDED FROM
EASTERN BOULDER EASTWARD TO ERIE. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING BEFORE TOO MUCH VERTICAL SHEAR DEVELOPS
AND THE MOUNTAIN WAVE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. THE RUC AND RAP MODELS
SHOWBREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG VERICAL MIXING OF WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. SPEEDS ON THE PLAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HIGH WIND
CRITERIA...SO NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OUT THERE.
THE WINDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES MILD
ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO THEIR MAX READINGS BY ABOUT THE NOON HOUR. OTHER THAN THE
WIND AND WARM TEMPERATURES...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON WILL
BE THE ONLY OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENT TO WORRY ABOUT. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE DECREASING TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND
THE UPPER JET MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE.
.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED AFTN
INTO WED NIGHT AND THEN BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THU MORNING.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE MTNS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH
THE FLOW SWITCHING FM SWLY TO NWLY BY EARLY WED EVENING AS THE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. WITH DECENT LAPSES RATE AND MDT QG ASCENT IN
THE MID LVLS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IN THE
00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY TYPE
EVENT IN MOST PLACES WITH GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SFC LOW PRES WILL INTENSIFY OVER ERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY AND
THEN MOVE EAST AS A CDFNT MOVES INTO NERN CO WED EVENING. AHEAD OF
THE FNT WILL SEE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH READINGS IN THE 55 TO 60
DEGREE RANGE. AS THE CDFNT MOVES ACROSS WED EVENING WILL SEE A
BETTER CHC OF PCPN OVER NERN CO AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS. SOUNDINGS SHOW RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 03Z SO
A FEW PLACES COULD PICK UP A QUICK INCH OR SO WITH PCPN DECREASING
AFTER 06Z.
ON THU DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER THERE WILL
STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE MTNS WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW. OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY
HOWEVER IT WILL BE WINDY AS BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL BE IN THE 35-40 KT
RANGE. THUS AS MIXING OCCURS WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH OVER THE PLAINS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS STG CAA WILL OCCUR.
FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT STG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA AS A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN
THE MTNS WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS AND DECENT LAPSE RATES BY FRI
ALONG WITH SOME QG ASCENT. THUS SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF SNOW IN THE
MTNS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS WILL INCREASE
IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS CROSS MTN FLOW
INCREASES TO 65-70 KT. OTHERWISE FOR FRI THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE
NWLY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PCPN OVER THE PLAINS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL
KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER NERN CO.
BY THE WEEKEND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN MAINLY NWLY. THE ECMWF
SHOWS MORE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS FOR SAT WHICH ALLOWS FOR A BETTER
CHC OF SNOW IN THE MTNS. FURTHERMORE THE ECWMF SHOWS A CDFNT MOVING
INTO NERN CO ON SAT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT FURTHER NORTH OVER SERN
WY AND THE NE PNHDL. AS A RESULT THE ECWMF SHOWS SOME UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING BY AFTN OVER NERN CO WITH A CHC OF PCPN ESPECIALLY SAT
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS SHOWS NO PCPN DUE TO HAVING THE FNT AND BETTER
MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW WILL MENTION AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC
OF PCPN OVER NERN CO FOR SAT NIGHT. FOR SUN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MTNS AND OVER NERN CO THUS WILL ONLY
MENTION LOW POPS IN THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS.
LATEST 850-700 MB TEMPS WOULD KEEP READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S OVER NERN CO.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ENDLESS PATTERN OF NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER CDFNT MOVING INTO NERN CO ON MON WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS IT FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGHS OVER NERN CO IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH THE COLDER READINGS ALONG THE WY-NE
BORDER. NEITHER MODEL SHOWS A LOT OF MOISTURE SO WILL JUST HAVE LOW
POPS IN THE MTNS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...WITH ALL OF THE WESTERLY FLOW COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ONE WOULD EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS AT THE AIRPORTS... AND
AT TIMES WE HAVE SEEN THAT. AT OTHER TIMES...SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDEN AND EVEN A BRIEF EASTERLY WIND HAS
OCCURRED AT KBJC. AFTER THE SUN COMES UP...WINDS SHOULD BECOME ALL
WEST AS DAYTIME HEATING MIXES LOW LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE OBSERVED THROUGH ABOUT 17Z WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE UNLIMITED
ALL DAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ033>036.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM....RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
649 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA
TODAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST THIS MORNING THEN MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TONIGHT.
THEN THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THE REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MILDER
WEATHER AND A SERIES OF FRONTS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY CROSS OUR AREA THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 UPDATE...THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO END WEST TO EAST.
THUS...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS NE
MD...DE...EASTERN PA...AND FAR NW NJ. SOME BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN REPORTED IN MILLVILLE...BUT THE SHOULD BE WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY...AND ALL OTHER REPORTS ARE OF SNOW OR
RAIN.
AT 3 AM...THE SNOW BAND CONTINUED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE REGION.
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS...RADAR...AND SATELLITE TRENDS...EXPECT ONLY
VERY LIGHT SNOW LINGERING BEHIND THIS MAIN SNOW BAND. WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING THE DRY SLOT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO OCCLUDE. A SECONDARY
SNOW BAND IS TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL PA...BUT THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION IN THIS BAND...AND IR
SATELLITE IS SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE
PATTERN THE 03Z HRRR WAS SHOWING WITH SNOW BANDS BECOMING LESS
ORGANIZED AS THEY APPROACH OUR REGION. THUS...EXPECT THE LOW TO
BEGIN TO FILL AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE TRENDED SNOW
TOTALS DOWN...BUT PLAN TO HOLD ON TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS TO SEE WHAT KIND OF SNOW RATES THIS MAIN
BAND WILL PROVIDE AND IF THE SECONDARY BAND CAN GET ORGANIZED.
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT PRECIPITATION COULD REDEVELOP NEAR
OR JUST OFF THE JERSEY SHORE AROUND 18Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FINALLY LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...BY THIS
POINT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN NOT SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
LATEST MODELS SHOW AFTER THE INITIAL MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS
THIS MORNING BEHIND THE SNOW...DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT TEMPS WILL GET LOW
ENOUGH FOR SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
HOWEVER...IF WINDS DROP OFF ENOUGH THAT PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPS LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK MELT TO
TODAY...THAT COULD ADD TO THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE. BUT FOR
NOW...TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD, A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AD
CROSS THE AREA DURG THE FIRST HALF OF WED. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
MAINLY RAIN WITH IT, BUT IF THE PRECIP STARTS EARLY ENOUGH N AND W
THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING RAIN N AND W OR SOME KIND OF WINTRY
MIX FOR A FEW HOURS. OVERALL QPF IS FAIRLY LIGHT.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WED NIGHT INTO
THU, BRINGING DRY WX.
THEN, AS STRONG LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVES EWD,
ITS ATTENDANT WMFNT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION THU NIGHT. THE LOW
WILL ADVANCE NEWD INTO ERN CANADA AND ITS ASSOCD STRONG CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON FRI. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS, PSBLY SOME
THUNDER AND A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN...SOME OF IT COULD BE
HEAVY...FOR A TIME.
AFTER THIS FRONT PASSES, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR
LATER FRI INTO AT LEAST SUN.
THEN, THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WK LOW OVER THE OH VLY
AND PUSH IT EWD SUN NIGHT INTO MON WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE DRY
WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA OVER
THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE NATION AND SLOWLY MOVG EWD.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHICH MDL, IF ANY, WILL BE RIGHT AT THIS TIME
SCALE, SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FCST ATTM.
TEMPS WILL BE ON QUITE A ROLLER COASTER. WE WILL SEE ABOVE NRML
TEMPS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE SOME TIME. THIS WILL HELP MELT
SOME OF THE SNOW. UNFORTUNATELY IF IT DOES IT TO QUICKLY AND IF WE
GET DECENT RAIN ON FRI THERE COULD BE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NRML FOR ABOUT FOR 6 DAYS BEFORE
RETURNING TO BELOW NRML VALUES BY THE END OF THE PD. ON WED HIGH
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 40S THEY WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ON THU
WITH MANY AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR S AND E MAKING A RUN AT 50
DEGREES. FRI WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH GOOD SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CFP. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH SUN WE SEE, A 60 DEGREE READING
ON THE I-95 CORRIDOR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER ON SAT BUT NOT UNBEARABLE AND WILL TREND MUCH COOLER BY
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AS OF 08Z SNOW BAND IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MINIMUM CONDITIONS
ARE AROUND 1/2SM SN OVC007 IN THE MIDDLE OF THE BAND. THE BAND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION NO LATER THAN 12Z. IN ITS WAKE...COULD
STILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS...AND ISOLATED CASES OF -SN REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 3SM...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BETTER THAN WHAT WE ARE
SEEING NOW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING TO VFR BY 18Z FOR THE TERMINALS. ONCE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF MOSTLY RAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE AFTER 15Z...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO STAY
MOSTLY N OF KACY.
OUTLOOK...
WED...A SYS WILL MOVE THRU IN THE MRNG AND BRING MAINLY SHRA.
THERE CUD BE FZRA OR MIXED PRECIP OVER NRN AND WRN AREAS IF THE
PRECIP DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH WED AM. MVFR PSBL IFR IN THE MRNG
THEN IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTN. SW WIND GUST 15-20 KT SHIFT NW
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MDT CONFIDENCE
WED NIGHT...GENLY VFR WITH PATCHY IFR FOG PSBL TOWARD SUNRISE IN
THE MORE RURAL AREAS. MDT CONFIDENCE
THU...VFR THROUGH THE DAY. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR IN
ST/FOG/RAIN-DRIZZLE THURSDAY NIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. MDT CONFIDENCE
FRI...MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR IN ST/FOG/SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE MORNING. CFP FRI AFTN... BRINGING AN ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT...AND RETURN TO VFR. LLWS POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING. SW
WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT THROUGH MIDDAY SHIFT NW AFTER THE CFP. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY.
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS BY EARLY
THIS EVENING AND STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...SCA CONDS PSBL IN SW TO W FLOW.
THU...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WIND AND SEAS
INCREASE THU NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF CDFNT.
FRI...SCA LIKELY. S WIND IN THE MRNG WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND CFP
IN THE AFTN.
SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS.
THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 16TH HAVE AVERAGED ABOUT
3 DEGREES (SOUTH) TO MORE THAN 6 DEGREES (NORTH)...ALL COLDER THAN
NORMAL!
SEASONAL SNOW TOTALS AND RANKING AS OF 7 AM TODAY-MONDAY FEBRUARY
17.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ009-010-012-013-015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NJZ020>022-027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>453.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431-454-455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
947 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2014
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
Water vapor imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate a prevailing
westerly flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a
weak upper level shortwave trough is tracking eastward across the
Northern Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure
extends from extreme northwesterly Kansas down into southeastern
Colorado. Low level moisture has increased somewhat across central
and southwest Kansas with surface dewpoints up into the 20s(F).
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
A Wind Advisory is in effect from 1 pm CST to 7 pm CST today. A
cold front will sweep down from Nebraska, and northwest winds
behind the front will increase to 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
An upper level, sharply amplified trough over the Great Lakes region
will move northeast today and tonight. A zonal westerly flow from
the Rockies into to the plains will persist today. The main affect
will be streaming cirrus clouds across Kansas, and a slight down
slope warming affect. Nearer the surface, a low level jet of around
40 knots will set up across western Kansas towards 12z this morning,
and persist until it migrates to the east by 18z. This jet will mix
down partially, but probably not totally. Therefore, I think winds
will be from the southwest at 15 mph gusting to near 30 mph today,
and subside to westerly at 10 to 20 mph after 20z. A weak cold
front will drop south through the afternoon, and this will cause
winds to shift to the west as well. It will be unseasonably warm
with highs ranging from the mid 60s near Hays to the lower 70s
around Elkhart. Max temps may occur early today, prior to the cold
frontal passage. I loaded model Dew Points from the EC, GFS, NAM,
RUC and HRRR models, and the only model with lower dew points than
the others was the HRRR model. If the HRRR guidance Dew Points are
correct, we would have RH`s below 15% in our western half. But
since the other 4 models favored Dew Points in the upper teens and
20s, plus the fact that frequent gusts to 25 mph do not seem
likely, I decided not to issue a Red Flag Warning today. It should
be windier to the north of our forecast area, as well as drier, so
I can see the reason for fire headlines to my north.
The tonight period was not changed. The flow aloft will still be
from the west, and surface high pressure will be in control. Low
temperatures will be relatively mild for mid February, and should
settle into the 30F degree range in our western zones near Syracuse
and Johnson City, into the lower 30s in our north around Hays and
Ness City, and to the middle 30s in locations such as Medicine
Lodge, Pratt and Coldwater. Winds tonight should drop off fairly
mild from an east to northeast direction with that high building
down. By morning, winds should be from the south at 5 to 10 mph.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
Busy extended period with a fairly significant cyclone to deal with
Wednesday/Thursday. The weighted blend solution (Friday onward) was
left as is.
Anyway, the main focus was on Wednesday and Thursday. A fairly intense
trof is located across the northeastern Pacific and into western Canada
as of this morning. This upper level feature will eventually be the
impetus to our sensible weather impacts midweek. The trof will be located
across the central Rockies Thursday morning. Significant dynamics are
associated with this as a 110-120 kt 250 hPa jet streak rounds the base
of the longwave trof and ejects across Kansas. An ageostrophic response
will lead to impressive surface cyclogenesis Wednesday evening through
Thursday evening across Kansas. Ahead of the sfc cyclone, low 40F dewpoints
will advect in across the warm sector. Depending on which model you
believe, some of the solutions are generating a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE. At this point, cannot rule out a rumble of thunder Wednesday
evening across central and south central Kansas. Moreover, The entire
lower tropospheric response is very impressive with a deep sfc to 850
hPa cyclone. Temperature advections are very impressive as well with
strong warm air advection Wednesday evening, followed by intense cold
air advection Thursday morning. This system has a lot of downslope southwesterly
momentum associated with it, so that will limit precipitation for the
southern 2/3rds of the forecast area of responsibility. Low level thermodynamic
profiles are rather warm, and this in combination with a delayed saturated
dendritic zone will limit overall snowfall amounts. Still, cannot rule
out an inch or so along the I70 corridor as the 700/850 hPa deformation
zone strengthens on the backside of the departing cyclone. Have made
spatiotemporal adjustments to pops with the highest probabilities across
the northern zones in association with WAA ahead of the cyclone and
the deformation zone is the most pronounced and developed behind the
cyclone. This area is also closer to the left exit region and the related
transverse circulation providing lift. Lastly, the whole kinematic profile
is very strong and a solid wind advisory is a no-brainer for Thursday.
Will defer to later shifts as we already have one issued in the short
term period. It will be very windy Thursday.
Beyond that, zonal to northwesterly flow aloft will continue thru the
weekend and into next week. This favors cooler temperatures, particularly
next week as colder 850 hPa temperatures advect in the wake of as passing
synoptic trof.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
Main focus is winds for this TAF issuance. Both sfc trof and cold front
will move across the region. This will result in southwesterly winds
veering northwesterly to northerly today. The strongest winds will be
for KHYS with magnitudes in the 25-35 kt range. Farther south, 20-30
kt winds expected for KGCK/KDDC. VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 35 61 37 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 67 35 62 33 / 0 0 0 20
EHA 72 37 67 34 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 72 35 66 36 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 65 33 59 35 / 0 0 10 50
P28 67 35 60 46 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CST this evening
FOR KSZ030-031-043>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Burke
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
543 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2014
...Updated for the wind advisory...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
A Wind Advisory is in effect from 1 pm CST to 7 pm CST today. A
cold front will sweep down from Nebraska, and northwest winds
behind the front will increase to 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
An upper level, sharply amplified trough over the Great Lakes region
will move northeast today and tonight. A zonal westerly flow from
the Rockies into to the plains will persist today. The main affect
will be streaming cirrus clouds across Kansas, and a slight down
slope warming affect. Nearer the surface, a low level jet of around
40 knots will set up across western Kansas towards 12z this morning,
and persist until it migrates to the east by 18z. This jet will mix
down partially, but probably not totally. Therefore, I think winds
will be from the southwest at 15 mph gusting to near 30 mph today,
and subside to westerly at 10 to 20 mph after 20z. A weak cold
front will drop south through the afternoon, and this will cause
winds to shift to the west as well. It will be unseasonably warm
with highs ranging from the mid 60s near Hays to the lower 70s
around Elkhart. Max temps may occur early today, prior to the cold
frontal passage. I loaded model Dew Points from the EC, GFS, NAM,
RUC and HRRR models, and the only model with lower dew points than
the others was the HRRR model. If the HRRR guidance Dew Points are
correct, we would have RH`s below 15% in our western half. But
since the other 4 models favored Dew Points in the upper teens and
20s, plus the fact that frequent gusts to 25 mph do not seem
likely, I decided not to issue a Red Flag Warning today. It should
be windier to the north of our forecast area, as well as drier, so
I can see the reason for fire headlines to my north.
The tonight period was not changed. The flow aloft will still be
from the west, and surface high pressure will be in control. Low
temperatures will be relatively mild for mid February, and should
settle into the 30F degree range in our western zones near Syracuse
and Johnson City, into the lower 30s in our north around Hays and
Ness City, and to the middle 30s in locations such as Medicine
Lodge, Pratt and Coldwater. Winds tonight should drop off fairly
mild from an east to northeast direction with that high building
down. By morning, winds should be from the south at 5 to 10 mph.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
Busy extended period with a fairly significant cyclone to deal with
Wednesday/Thursday. The weighted blend solution (Friday onward) was
left as is.
Anyway, the main focus was on Wednesday and Thursday. A fairly intense
trof is located across the northeastern Pacific and into western Canada
as of this morning. This upper level feature will eventually be the
impetus to our sensible weather impacts midweek. The trof will be located
across the central Rockies Thursday morning. Significant dynamics are
associated with this as a 110-120 kt 250 hPa jet streak rounds the base
of the longwave trof and ejects across Kansas. An ageostrophic response
will lead to impressive surface cyclogenesis Wednesday evening through
Thursday evening across Kansas. Ahead of the sfc cyclone, low 40F dewpoints
will advect in across the warm sector. Depending on which model you
believe, some of the solutions are generating a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE. At this point, cannot rule out a rumble of thunder Wednesday
evening across central and south central Kansas. Moreover, The entire
lower tropospheric response is very impressive with a deep sfc to 850
hPa cyclone. Temperature advections are very impressive as well with
strong warm air advection Wednesday evening, followed by intense cold
air advection Thursday morning. This system has a lot of downslope southwesterly
momentum associated with it, so that will limit precipitation for the
southern 2/3rds of the forecast area of responsibility. Low level thermodynamic
profiles are rather warm, and this in combination with a delayed saturated
dendritic zone will limit overall snowfall amounts. Still, cannot rule
out an inch or so along the I70 corridor as the 700/850 hPa deformation
zone strengthens on the backside of the departing cyclone. Have made
spatiotemporal adjustments to pops with the highest probabilities across
the northern zones in association with WAA ahead of the cyclone and
the deformation zone is the most pronounced and developed behind the
cyclone. This area is also closer to the left exit region and the related
transverse circulation providing lift. Lastly, the whole kinematic profile
is very strong and a solid wind advisory is a no-brainer for Thursday.
Will defer to later shifts as we already have one issued in the short
term period. It will be very windy Thursday.
Beyond that, zonal to northwesterly flow aloft will continue thru the
weekend and into next week. This favors cooler temperatures, particularly
next week as colder 850 hPa temperatures advect in the wake of as passing
synoptic trof.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
Main focus is winds for this TAF issuance. Both sfc trof and cold front
will move across the region. This will result in southwesterly winds
veering northwesterly to northerly today. The strongest winds will be
for KHYS with magnitudes in the 25-35 kt range. Farther south, 20-30
kt winds expected for KGCK/KDDC. VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 34 61 37 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 67 32 62 33 / 0 0 10 20
EHA 72 33 67 34 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 72 32 66 36 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 65 32 59 35 / 0 0 20 60
P28 67 36 60 46 / 0 0 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CST this evening
FOR KSZ030-031-043>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Burke
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
502 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2014
...Update to aviation for 12Z TAFs...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
An upper level, sharply amplified trough over the Great Lakes region
will move northeast today and tonight. A zonal westerly flow from
the Rockies into to the plains will persist today. The main affect
will be streaming cirrus clouds across Kansas, and a slight down
slope warming affect. Nearer the surface, a low level jet of around
40 knots will set up across western Kansas towards 12z this morning,
and persist until it migrates to the east by 18z. This jet will mix
down partially, but probably not totally. Therefore, I think winds
will be from the southwest at 15 mph gusting to near 30 mph today,
and subside to westerly at 10 to 20 mph after 20z. A weak cold
front will drop south through the afternoon, and this will cause
winds to shift to the west as well. It will be unseasonably warm
with highs ranging from the mid 60s near Hays to the lower 70s
around Elkhart. Max temps may occur early today, prior to the cold
frontal passage. I loaded model Dew Points from the EC, GFS, NAM,
RUC and HRRR models, and the only model with lower dew points than
the others was the HRRR model. If the HRRR guidance Dew Points are
correct, we would have RH`s below 15% in our western half. But
since the other 4 models favored Dew Points in the upper teens and
20s, plus the fact that frequent gusts to 25 mph do not seem
likely, I decided not to issue a Red Flag Warning today. It should
be windier to the north of our forecast area, as well as drier, so
I can see the reason for fire headlines to my north.
The tonight period was not changed. The flow aloft will still be
from the west, and surface high pressure will be in control. Low
temperatures will be relatively mild for mid February, and should
settle into the 30F degree range in our western zones near Syracuse
and Johnson City, into the lower 30s in our north around Hays and
Ness City, and to the middle 30s in locations such as Medicine
Lodge, Pratt and Coldwater. Winds tonight should drop off fairly
mild from an east to northeast direction with that high building
down. By morning, winds should be from the south at 5 to 10 mph.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
Busy extended period with a fairly significant cyclone to deal with
Wednesday/Thursday. The weighted blend solution (Friday onward) was
left as is.
Anyway, the main focus was on Wednesday and Thursday. A fairly intense
trof is located across the northeastern Pacific and into western Canada
as of this morning. This upper level feature will eventually be the
impetus to our sensible weather impacts midweek. The trof will be located
across the central Rockies Thursday morning. Significant dynamics are
associated with this as a 110-120 kt 250 hPa jet streak rounds the base
of the longwave trof and ejects across Kansas. An ageostrophic response
will lead to impressive surface cyclogenesis Wednesday evening through
Thursday evening across Kansas. Ahead of the sfc cyclone, low 40F dewpoints
will advect in across the warm sector. Depending on which model you
believe, some of the solutions are generating a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE. At this point, cannot rule out a rumble of thunder Wednesday
evening across central and south central Kansas. Moreover, The entire
lower tropospheric response is very impressive with a deep sfc to 850
hPa cyclone. Temperature advections are very impressive as well with
strong warm air advection Wednesday evening, followed by intense cold
air advection Thursday morning. This system has a lot of downslope southwesterly
momentum associated with it, so that will limit precipitation for the
southern 2/3rds of the forecast area of responsibility. Low level thermodynamic
profiles are rather warm, and this in combination with a delayed saturated
dendritic zone will limit overall snowfall amounts. Still, cannot rule
out an inch or so along the I70 corridor as the 700/850 hPa deformation
zone strengthens on the backside of the departing cyclone. Have made
spatiotemporal adjustments to pops with the highest probabilities across
the northern zones in association with WAA ahead of the cyclone and
the deformation zone is the most pronounced and developed behind the
cyclone. This area is also closer to the left exit region and the related
transverse circulation providing lift. Lastly, the whole kinematic profile
is very strong and a solid wind advisory is a no-brainer for Thursday.
Will defer to later shifts as we already have one issued in the short
term period. It will be very windy Thursday.
Beyond that, zonal to northwesterly flow aloft will continue thru the
weekend and into next week. This favors cooler temperatures, particularly
next week as colder 850 hPa temperatures advect in the wake of as passing
synoptic trof.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
Main focus is winds for this TAF issuance. Both sfc trof and cold front
will move across the region. This will result in southwesterly winds
veering northwesterly to northerly today. The strongest winds will be
for KHYS with magnitudes in the 25-35 kt range. Farther south, 20-30
kt winds expected for KGCK/KDDC. VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 34 61 37 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 67 32 62 33 / 0 0 10 20
EHA 72 33 67 34 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 72 32 66 36 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 65 32 59 35 / 0 0 20 60
P28 67 36 60 46 / 0 0 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CST this evening
FOR KSZ030-031-043>046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
420 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2014
...Update to long term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
An upper level, sharply amplified trough over the Great Lakes region
will move northeast today and tonight. A zonal westerly flow from
the Rockies into to the plains will persist today. The main affect
will be streaming cirrus clouds across Kansas, and a slight down
slope warming affect. Nearer the surface, a low level jet of around
40 knots will set up across western Kansas towards 12z this morning,
and persist until it migrates to the east by 18z. This jet will mix
down partially, but probably not totally. Therefore, I think winds
will be from the southwest at 15 mph gusting to near 30 mph today,
and subside to westerly at 10 to 20 mph after 20z. A weak cold
front will drop south through the afternoon, and this will cause
winds to shift to the west as well. It will be unseasonably warm
with highs ranging from the mid 60s near Hays to the lower 70s
around Elkhart. Max temps may occur early today, prior to the cold
frontal passage. I loaded model Dew Points from the EC, GFS, NAM,
RUC and HRRR models, and the only model with lower dew points than
the others was the HRRR model. If the HRRR guidance Dew Points are
correct, we would have RH`s below 15% in our western half. But
since the other 4 models favored Dew Points in the upper teens and
20s, plus the fact that frequent gusts to 25 mph do not seem
likely, I decided not to issue a Red Flag Warning today. It should
be windier to the north of our forecast area, as well as drier, so
I can see the reason for fire headlines to my north.
The tonight period was not changed. The flow aloft will still be
from the west, and surface high pressure will be in control. Low
temperatures will be relatively mild for mid February, and should
settle into the 30F degree range in our western zones near Syracuse
and Johnson City, into the lower 30s in our north around Hays and
Ness City, and to the middle 30s in locations such as Medicine
Lodge, Pratt and Coldwater. Winds tonight should drop off fairly
mild from an east to northeast direction with that high building
down. By morning, winds should be from the south at 5 to 10 mph.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
Busy extended period with a fairly significant cyclone to deal with
Wednesday/Thursday. The weighted blend solution (Friday onward) was
left as is.
Anyway, the main focus was on Wednesday and Thursday. A fairly intense
trof is located across the northeastern Pacific and into western Canada
as of this morning. This upper level feature will eventually be the
impetus to our sensible weather impacts midweek. The trof will be located
across the central Rockies Thursday morning. Significant dynamics are
associated with this as a 110-120 kt 250 hPa jet streak rounds the base
of the longwave trof and ejects across Kansas. An ageostrophic response
will lead to impressive surface cyclogenesis Wednesday evening through
Thursday evening across Kansas. Ahead of the sfc cyclone, low 40F dewpoints
will advect in across the warm sector. Depending on which model you
believe, some of the solutions are generating a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE. At this point, cannot rule out a rumble of thunder Wednesday
evening across central and south central Kansas. Moreover, The entire
lower tropospheric response is very impressive with a deep sfc to 850
hPa cyclone. Temperature advections are very impressive as well with
strong warm air advection Wednesday evening, followed by intense cold
air advection Thursday morning. This system has a lot of downslope southwesterly
momentum associated with it, so that will limit precipitation for the
southern 2/3rds of the forecast area of responsibility. Low level thermodynamic
profiles are rather warm, and this in combination with a delayed saturated
dendritic zone will limit overall snowfall amounts. Still, cannot rule
out an inch or so along the I70 corridor as the 700/850 hPa deformation
zone strengthens on the backside of the departing cyclone. Have made
spatiotemporal adjustments to pops with the highest probabilities across
the northern zones in association with WAA ahead of the cyclone and
the deformation zone is the most pronounced and developed behind the
cyclone. This area is also closer to the left exit region and the related
transverse circulation providing lift. Lastly, the whole kinematic profile
is very strong and a solid wind advisory is a no-brainer for Thursday.
Will defer to later shifts as we already have one issued in the short
term period. It will be very windy Thursday.
Beyond that, zonal to northwesterly flow aloft will continue thru the
weekend and into next week. This favors cooler temperatures, particularly
next week as colder 850 hPa temperatures advect in the wake of as passing
synoptic trof.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014
There will a low level jet setting up this morning, with winds
starting out from the southwest at 16g25kt. Plenty of high level
cirrus will be streaming by to the east, but will not lower any
cigs. Flight conditions will stay VFR through the 24 hour period.
Surface winds will shift to the west around 15 to 16Z, as a trough
crosses from west to east.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 34 61 37 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 67 32 62 33 / 0 0 10 20
EHA 72 33 67 34 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 72 32 66 36 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 65 32 59 35 / 0 0 20 60
P28 67 36 60 46 / 0 0 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CST this evening
FOR KSZ030-031-043>046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1033 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL RACE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST INTO
THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TO BRING FORECAST IN
LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PROGRESSION OF POP
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK ATTM...SO DIDN/T CHANGE TOO MUCH FROM
PREVIOUS. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN STRONG
AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF LOW PRES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THESE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE HINTS OF A
MAUL...MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE LAYER...SO THERE REMAINS THE
THREAT OF POTENTIALLY INTENSE SNFL RATES LATER TODAY.
PREVIOUSLY..
A VERY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND WILL AID IN RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE WAA IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST PA INTO CENTRAL NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT.
THE REAL SHOW LOOKS TO GET GOING LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP OVER LONG ISLAND NY OR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF. AS THIS
HAPPENS...STRONG DYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS WILL GO INTO MOTION AND
ALLOW A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO BLOSSOM OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND HEAD NNEWD. THIS OCCURS AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS VIA STRONG EASTERLY INFLOW UPGLIDING INTO A
STRENGTHENING DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULTANT
COMMA HEAD THAT DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THEN
RIDE NNEWD INTO SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERNMOST ME BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD NEWD FROM THERE...AFFECTING THE
REST OF THE WARNING AREA MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE VARIOUS 00Z MODELS...INCLUDING LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR
ARE ALL IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR WEST THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDING WILL EXTEND. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS FOR
THE AXIS OF MAX QPF AND RESULTANT SNOWFALL TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF NEW HAMPSHIRE NORTHWARD TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF MAINE TO JUST SOUTH OF AUGUSTA. THE BANDING THEN WANES AS
THE SYSTEM STOPS DEEPENING...THEREFORE...LOWER AMOUNTS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED NORTHEAST OF THE WARNING AREA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING AT THIS TIME THAT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE
RAP AND VARIOUS 4KM WRF MODELS ARE MORE POTENT...WITH MORE QPF
OVER A WIDER AREA. WHILE THEY ARE LIKELY SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...THIS
SITUATION MAY LEND MORE CREDENCE TO THEM AS THEY MAY BE CAPTURING
THE MESOSCALE PROCESSES BETTER THAN THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS.
THEREFORE...THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO ASSESS TRENDS AND SEE IF
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED.
ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES MAY
LEAD TO LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...ONCE THE BANDING SETS
IN...SNOW SHOULD BE THE FAVORED PRECIP TYPE. THE SNOW MAY BE WET
THERE...SO SOME POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE.
FORECAST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
OVERLY HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN PERSISTENT BANDING.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR FOR A
TIME...PROBABLY DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A
HIGH-IMPACT EVENT. ISOLD THUNDER MAY EVEN OCCUR IN THE HEAVIEST
BANDING.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST
ZONES...AND FINALLY END ON THE MID COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST
ZONES...AND FINALLY END ON THE MID COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NO REST FOR THE WEARY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
WEAKER AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN TODAY/S SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SPINNING UP LOW PRESSURE CLOSE TO THE COAST
FASTER THAT PREVIOUS RUNS...ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THIS
OCCURS...ESPECIALLY LIKELY ECMWF IS SHOWING...MORE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF PORTLAND TO THE
MID COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN UP JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE LOW PRESSURE MAY SPIN UP QUICK ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ADVISORIES IN MID COAST MAINE AND FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF
THE FORECAST AREA. QPF FROM THE NEW ECMWF HAS INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM LAST NIGHT IN THESE AREAS.
IN ANY CASE...LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RACE INTO THE MARITIMES
BEFORE MIDNIGHT BRINGING A QUICK END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT LINGERING
CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. WILL
ACTUALLY SEE HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AND A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN ZONES AND
SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIP IN NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE TAPERING OFF
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING. QPF NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS INITIAL
BURST OF OVER-RUNNING PRECIP BUT WILL LIKELY CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON FRIDAY. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE A QUICK
HITTER WITH PRECIP PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY BEFORE CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT PUSH IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS POINT IN TIME...APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WITH A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE WITH THE
FROPA. EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION AS THIS MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM QUICKLY BLOWS THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL INVADE NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO LIFR IN HEAVY SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO VFR RETURNS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...MVFR OF LOWER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN SNOW
AND/OR RAIN WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THURSDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE CRANKS UP IN THE GULF OF MAINE. SCA RETURNS LATER
TONIGHT AND FOR WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
GALES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>020-
023>026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MEZ012>014-021-022-027-028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ006-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NHZ002>005-007-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ008-010-
013.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
710 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL RACE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST INTO
THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
710 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. THINGS ARE
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AS PLANNED. RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUSLY..
A VERY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND WILL AID IN RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE WAA IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST PA INTO CENTRAL NY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT.
THE REAL SHOW LOOKS TO GET GOING LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP OVER LONG ISLAND NY OR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF. AS THIS
HAPPENS...STRONG DYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS WILL GO INTO MOTION AND
ALLOW A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO BLOSSOM OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND HEAD NNEWD. THIS OCCURS AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS VIA STRONG EASTERLY INFLOW UPGLIDING INTO A
STRENGTHENING DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULTANT
COMMA HEAD THAT DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THEN
RIDE NNEWD INTO SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERNMOST ME BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD NEWD FROM THERE...AFFECTING THE
REST OF THE WARNING AREA MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE VARIOUS 00Z MODELS...INCLUDING LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR
ARE ALL IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR WEST THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDING WILL EXTEND. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS FOR
THE AXIS OF MAX QPF AND RESULTANT SNOWFALL TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF NEW HAMPSHIRE NORTHWARD TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF MAINE TO JUST SOUTH OF AUGUSTA. THE BANDING THEN WANES AS
THE SYSTEM STOPS DEEPENING...THEREFORE...LOWER AMOUNTS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED NORTHEAST OF THE WARNING AREA. IT IS WORTH
NOTING AT THIS TIME THAT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE
RAP AND VARIOUS 4KM WRF MODELS ARE MORE POTENT...WITH MORE QPF
OVER A WIDER AREA. WHILE THEY ARE LIKELY SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...THIS
SITUATION MAY LEND MORE CREDENCE TO THEM AS THEY MAY BE CAPTURING
THE MESOSCALE PROCESSES BETTER THAN THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS.
THEREFORE...THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO ASSESS TRENDS AND SEE IF
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED.
ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES MAY
LEAD TO LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...ONCE THE BANDING SETS
IN...SNOW SHOULD BE THE FAVORED PRECIP TYPE. THE SNOW MAY BE WET
THERE...SO SOME POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE.
FORECAST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
OVERLY HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY IN THE 4-8 INCH RANGE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN PERSISTENT BANDING.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR FOR A
TIME...PROBABLY DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A
HIGH-IMPACT EVENT. ISOLD THUNDER MAY EVEN OCCUR IN THE HEAVIEST
BANDING.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST
ZONES...AND FINALLY END ON THE MID COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST
ZONES...AND FINALLY END ON THE MID COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NO REST FOR THE WEARY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
WEAKER AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN TODAY/S SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SPINNING UP LOW PRESSURE CLOSE TO THE COAST
FASTER THAT PREVIOUS RUNS...ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THIS
OCCURS...ESPECIALLY LIKELY ECMWF IS SHOWING...MORE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF PORTLAND TO THE
MID COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN UP JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE LOW PRESSURE MAY SPIN UP QUICK ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ADVISORIES IN MID COAST MAINE AND FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF
THE FORECAST AREA. QPF FROM THE NEW ECMWF HAS INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM LAST NIGHT IN THESE AREAS.
IN ANY CASE...LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RACE INTO THE MARITIMES
BEFORE MIDNIGHT BRINGING A QUICK END TO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT LINGERING
CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. WILL
ACTUALLY SEE HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AND A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN ZONES AND
SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIP IN NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE TAPERING OFF
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING. QPF NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS INITIAL
BURST OF OVER-RUNNING PRECIP BUT WILL LIKELY CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON FRIDAY. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE A QUICK
HITTER WITH PRECIP PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY BEFORE CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT PUSH IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS POINT IN TIME...APPEARS ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING WITH A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE WITH THE
FROPA. EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION AS THIS MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM QUICKLY BLOWS THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL INVADE NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO LIFR IN HEAVY SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO VFR RETURNS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...MVFR OF LOWER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN SNOW
AND/OR RAIN WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THURSDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE CRANKS UP IN THE GULF OF MAINE. SCA RETURNS LATER
TONIGHT AND FOR WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
GALES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>020-023>026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ012>014-021-022-027-028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ006-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>005-007-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ008-010-013.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...EKSTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
709 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
09Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY/S SNOW IS NOW MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ALSO PULLING OUT OF THE ERN FCST
AREA AS LIGHT SNOW HAS NOW ENDED OR DIMINISHED TO LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES. AN AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS STILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY THE WRN
FCST AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP OR LIFT OUT THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH INCREASED MIXING FM WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TODAY...A COUPLE SHORTWAVES NOTED IN UPSTREAM ZONAL FLOW...ONE
NORTHERN WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO AND A
SECOND SRN WAVE MOVING EAST ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER.
THESE WAVES WILL HELP PROPEL A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH AND WEAK COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. THE WEAK SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL BRUSH
LAKE SUPERIOR. A BAND OF 285-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT BULK OF SNOW SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...FCST SNDGS AND LATEST IR
SATELLITE LOOP SUGGEST THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING AND SUNSHINE
FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR THE WRN
HALF OF THE FCST FOR THE HIGHEST TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
EVEN LOWER 40S FOR DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. COOLER
SOUTH FLOW OFF MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE MI WILL KEEP ERN HALF OF CWA
COOLER...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
TONIGHT...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE
WRN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN...AS DEEP LAYER FORCING/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE EXITS QUICKLY E OF THE FCST AREA IN THE EVENING. MAY SEE A
LITTLE BIT OF -SN/FLURRY ACTIVITY OVER THE E EARLY IN THE EVENING.
AFTER THAT...QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE MIGHT BE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES OR MORE LIKELY PATCHY -FZDZ FOR AREAS FAVORED IN WNW
UPSLOPE FLOW AS TEMP PROFILE IN LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE IS ABOVE
-10C. BEST CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE PATCHY FZDZ WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
AND FAR NE CWA. SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMER NIGHTS IN QUITE A WHILE
UNDER PACIFIC AIR MASS WITH WINDS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT
MINS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT QUIET COMPARED TO LATE
THIS WEEK. RAN WITH MENTION OF FZDZ OVR NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST CWA
EARLY WEDNESDAY WHERE ONSHORE/UPSLOPING FLOW IS FORECAST ALONG WITH
MOISTURE TO H9 AND EVEN SOME LIFT WITHIN THAT MOIST LAYER. SPEED
SHEAR ALSO THERE WHICH CAN SOMETIMES ENHANCE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. AFTER
LOW CLOUDS GET OUT OF THE WAY BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...NUDGED TEMPS UP
IN THE AFTN WITH READINGS OVER INTERIOR WEST AND SCNTRL POSSIBLY
CRACKING 40 DEGREES AS GEM GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR A FEW DAYS NOW.
FORECAST GETS VERY INTERESTING BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
NO DOUBT ABOUT IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO LATCH ON TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A VERY MAJOR AND HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AND THIS IS JUST THE WINTER SIDE TO
THIS SYSTEM. SEVERE WEATHER...MAYBE EVEN FORM OF A LARGER SCALE
SQUALL LINE...COULD AFFECT OHIO VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MAYBE
AS FAR NORTH AS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
ON THAT FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES AS FAR NORTH
AS UPPER GREAT LAKES ON NOSE OF DRY SLOT WORKING THROUGH LATER
THURSDAY. SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK DOES HAVE EASTERN HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN IN
GENERAL THUNDER PROBS.
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN MSLP/THERMAL FIELDS THE LAST FEW RUNS
FROM THE MAIN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH IS
IMPRESSIVE. ENTHUSIASM AND CONFIDENCE IN MODEL AGREEMENT IS TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT THOUGH AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE THAT WILL HELP DEVELOP THE
STRONG SFC LOW IS STILL OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING AND THE
FORECAST STRONG DEEPENING OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WITH IT
ARE DIRECTLY DEPENDANT ON PHASING OF SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WITH
INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS IS ALWAYS A TRICKY
PROPOSITION. PROBABLY WILL SEE SOME SHIFTING AROUND IN TERMS OF
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF LOW AND WARM LAYER ALOFT. IF IT ALL COMES TO
FRUITION AS MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE THOUGH...SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM
WOULD IMPACT UPR MICHIGAN. WOULD ALSO BE ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT PER
1000-850/850-700MB THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS FOR SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTH AND EAST CWA...MAINLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
DEGREE OF ICING IS UNCERTAIN...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON TREATMENT OF
ROADS AND ALSO TIMING OF SWITCH OVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN. WPC WWD GRAPHICS
INDICATE SNOW AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY OF 8-10 INCHES TAPERING TO 4-6 INCHES OVER EASTERN CWA ALONG
WITH ICE AMOUNTS THERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
IMPACT TOWARD THE END OF THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW WOULD BE A FULL
FLEDGED BLIZZARD ALONG EXPOSED SHORELINE OF WESTERN LK SUPERIOR
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. FORECAST SUB 970MB LOW TO NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR AT 12Z
FRIDAY WITH WEST WINDS AT H85 OF 45 KTS AND SUFFICIENT MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AT H85-H7 WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -12C WOULD BE BAD
ENOUGH ON ITS OWN. ADD FACT THAT WESTERN LK SUPERIOR IS COVERED WITH
ICE AND THERE WILL BE ONGOING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IT CERTAINLY SEEMS THERE ARE THE MAKINGS OF
WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE U.P. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WOULD BE IMPACTED BY CONSIDERABLE BLSN DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE SFC
LOW. WORST CONDITIONS WOULD BE ON THE KEWEENAW THOUGH. SYSTEM REALLY
BEARS WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUCH HIGH IMPACTS FROM THE
SNOW...ICE...AND WIND. IF THIS SYSTEM ENDS UP AS FORECAST RIGHT
NOW...A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. WILL START OUT HIGHLIGHTING IT THIS
MORNING BY ISSUING AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. ALSO WILL KEEP
MENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
REST OF EXTENDED...KEPT WITH MONDAY DAYSHIFT THINKING OF SMALL CHANCE
POPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR FOR WNW/W FLOW AREAS AS TEMPS ARE SUFFICIENTLY
COLD FOR LAKE EFFECT RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOT OF ICE ON LK
SUPERIOR BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH OPEN WATER APPEARS
AFTER THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. AWAY FM ANY LAKE
EFFECT...THE RETURNING COLD WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH READINGS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE TEENS. BEYOND THE EXTENDED...COLD
REGIME LOOKS TO REASSERT ITSELF AS WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TIED TO THE
PERSISTENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN REAPPEARS. 00Z ECMWF BACKED OFF SOME
BUT STILL LOOKS QUITE COLD BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN
NEAR -28C. PROBABLY WILL BE DEALING WITH A RETURN OF WIND CHILL ISSUES
BY THAT TIME. MORAL OF THE STORY...ENJOY BRIEF RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS
AS BY THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND THEY WILL BE JUST A DISTANT MEMORY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS
EVENING. AS WINDS SHIFT WEST THIS EVENING BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A
TROUGH...UPSLOPE MVFR CLOUDS AND A COMBINATION OF FLURRIES AND FZDZ
COULD DEVELOP AT KCMX AND PERHAPS KIWD AS WELL. DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY
FLOW AT KSAW SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 439
AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 30 KTS THROUGH WED. POTENTIAL FOR
A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH PRESSURE
LOWER THAN 975MB OR 29 INCHES TO LIFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. NW GALES LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WESTERLY GALES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN A
RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
509 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
09Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY/S SNOW IS NOW MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ALSO PULLING OUT OF THE ERN FCST
AREA AS LIGHT SNOW HAS NOW ENDED OR DIMINISHED TO LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES. AN AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS STILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY THE WRN
FCST AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP OR LIFT OUT THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH INCREASED MIXING FM WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TODAY...A COUPLE SHORTWAVES NOTED IN UPSTREAM ZONAL FLOW...ONE
NORTHERN WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO AND A
SECOND SRN WAVE MOVING EAST ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER.
THESE WAVES WILL HELP PROPEL A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH AND WEAK COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. THE WEAK SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL BRUSH
LAKE SUPERIOR. A BAND OF 285-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT BULK OF SNOW SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...FCST SNDGS AND LATEST IR
SATELLITE LOOP SUGGEST THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING AND SUNSHINE
FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR THE WRN
HALF OF THE FCST FOR THE HIGHEST TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
EVEN LOWER 40S FOR DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. COOLER
SOUTH FLOW OFF MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE MI WILL KEEP ERN HALF OF CWA
COOLER...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
TONIGHT...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE
WRN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN...AS DEEP LAYER FORCING/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE EXITS QUICKLY E OF THE FCST AREA IN THE EVENING. MAY SEE A
LITTLE BIT OF -SN/FLURRY ACTIVITY OVER THE E EARLY IN THE EVENING.
AFTER THAT...QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE MIGHT BE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES OR MORE LIKELY PATCHY -FZDZ FOR AREAS FAVORED IN WNW
UPSLOPE FLOW AS TEMP PROFILE IN LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE IS ABOVE
-10C. BEST CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE PATCHY FZDZ WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
AND FAR NE CWA. SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMER NIGHTS IN QUITE A WHILE
UNDER PACIFIC AIR MASS WITH WINDS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT
MINS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT QUIET COMPARED TO LATE
THIS WEEK. RAN WITH MENTION OF FZDZ OVR NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST CWA
EARLY WEDNESDAY WHERE ONSHORE/UPSLOPING FLOW IS FORECAST ALONG WITH
MOISTURE TO H9 AND EVEN SOME LIFT WITHIN THAT MOIST LAYER. SPEED
SHEAR ALSO THERE WHICH CAN SOMETIMES ENHANCE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. AFTER
LOW CLOUDS GET OUT OF THE WAY BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...NUDGED TEMPS UP
IN THE AFTN WITH READINGS OVER INTERIOR WEST AND SCNTRL POSSIBLY
CRACKING 40 DEGREES AS GEM GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR A FEW DAYS NOW.
FORECAST GETS VERY INTERESTING BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
NO DOUBT ABOUT IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO LATCH ON TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A VERY MAJOR AND HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AND THIS IS JUST THE WINTER SIDE TO
THIS SYSTEM. SEVERE WEATHER...MAYBE EVEN FORM OF A LARGER SCALE
SQUALL LINE...COULD AFFECT OHIO VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MAYBE
AS FAR NORTH AS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
ON THAT FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES AS FAR NORTH
AS UPPER GREAT LAKES ON NOSE OF DRY SLOT WORKING THROUGH LATER
THURSDAY. SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK DOES HAVE EASTERN HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN IN
GENERAL THUNDER PROBS.
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN MSLP/THERMAL FIELDS THE LAST FEW RUNS
FROM THE MAIN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH IS
IMPRESSIVE. ENTHUSIASM AND CONFIDENCE IN MODEL AGREEMENT IS TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT THOUGH AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE THAT WILL HELP DEVELOP THE
STRONG SFC LOW IS STILL OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING AND THE
FORECAST STRONG DEEPENING OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WITH IT
ARE DIRECTLY DEPENDANT ON PHASING OF SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WITH
INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS IS ALWAYS A TRICKY
PROPOSITION. PROBABLY WILL SEE SOME SHIFTING AROUND IN TERMS OF
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF LOW AND WARM LAYER ALOFT. IF IT ALL COMES TO
FRUITION AS MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE THOUGH...SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM
WOULD IMPACT UPR MICHIGAN. WOULD ALSO BE ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT PER
1000-850/850-700MB THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS FOR SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTH AND EAST CWA...MAINLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
DEGREE OF ICING IS UNCERTAIN...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON TREATMENT OF
ROADS AND ALSO TIMING OF SWITCH OVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN. WPC WWD GRAPHICS
INDICATE SNOW AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY OF 8-10 INCHES TAPERING TO 4-6 INCHES OVER EASTERN CWA ALONG
WITH ICE AMOUNTS THERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
IMPACT TOWARD THE END OF THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW WOULD BE A FULL
FLEDGED BLIZZARD ALONG EXPOSED SHORELINE OF WESTERN LK SUPERIOR
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. FORECAST SUB 970MB LOW TO NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR AT 12Z
FRIDAY WITH WEST WINDS AT H85 OF 45 KTS AND SUFFICIENT MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AT H85-H7 WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -12C WOULD BE BAD
ENOUGH ON ITS OWN. ADD FACT THAT WESTERN LK SUPERIOR IS COVERED WITH
ICE AND THERE WILL BE ONGOING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IT CERTAINLY SEEMS THERE ARE THE MAKINGS OF
WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE U.P. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WOULD BE IMPACTED BY CONSIDERABLE BLSN DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE SFC
LOW. WORST CONDITIONS WOULD BE ON THE KEWEENAW THOUGH. SYSTEM REALLY
BEARS WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUCH HIGH IMPACTS FROM THE
SNOW...ICE...AND WIND. IF THIS SYSTEM ENDS UP AS FORECAST RIGHT
NOW...A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. WILL START OUT HIGHLIGHTING IT THIS
MORNING BY ISSUING AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. ALSO WILL KEEP
MENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
REST OF EXTENDED...KEPT WITH MONDAY DAYSHIFT THINKING OF SMALL CHANCE
POPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR FOR WNW/W FLOW AREAS AS TEMPS ARE SUFFICIENTLY
COLD FOR LAKE EFFECT RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOT OF ICE ON LK
SUPERIOR BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH OPEN WATER APPEARS
AFTER THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. AWAY FM ANY LAKE
EFFECT...THE RETURNING COLD WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH READINGS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE TEENS. BEYOND THE EXTENDED...COLD
REGIME LOOKS TO REASSERT ITSELF AS WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TIED TO THE
PERSISTENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN REAPPEARS. 00Z ECMWF BACKED OFF SOME
BUT STILL LOOKS QUITE COLD BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN
NEAR -28C. PROBABLY WILL BE DEALING WITH A RETURN OF WIND CHILL ISSUES
BY THAT TIME. MORAL OF THE STORY...ENJOY BRIEF RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS
AS BY THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND THEY WILL BE JUST A DISTANT MEMORY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SNOW TAPERS OFF AND WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 30 KTS THROUGH WED. POTENTIAL FOR
A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH PRESSURE
LOWER THAN 975MB OR 29 INCHES TO LIFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. NW GALES LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WESTERLY GALES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN A
RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
735 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TAPERING OFF.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND A RETURN TO MORE
WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DEEP MID LEVEL CUT OFF LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED ABOVE A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO
AT 12Z WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF
LAKE ERIE AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER JUST WEST OF BUFFALO.
AREA RADARS SHOW A WIDE BAND OF SNOW ORIENTED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. FURTHER EAST A SECOND BAND OF SNOW IS
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TO NORTH OF SYRACUSE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY...SUB ADVISORY...WINDS HAS WORKED ACROSS WESTERN NY
AS COLD AIR MIXES DOWN ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS ARE
CREATING BLOWING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING. HAVE
DROPPED THE WIND ADVISORY AS THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE SHIFTED EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THROUGH TODAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY
NOON THEN AS THE BASE OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTING MID LEVEL TROUGH
REACHES THE EAST COAST THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSFER OFF THE NY/NJ
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS WHOLE PROCESS OCCURS...MESOSCALE
MODELS INCLUDING THE WELL PERFORMING HRRR SHOW THE BAND OF SNOW
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL SHIFT EAST TO CENTRAL NEW YORK
FOR THE AFTERNOON. USED A BLEND OF MESOSCALE MODEL QPF WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE WHICH CAPTURES THE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT ORIENTATION
AND TIMING VERY WELL. OVERALL ONLY A GENERAL COATING TO AN INCH CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES. HIGHER SNOW TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE TUG HILL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THOSE LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM WILL NORTH JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WITH A BRIEF AREA OF RIDGING SHIFTING ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR WEATHER AND A LULL IN THE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE. FURTHER
UPSTREAM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WITH ITS COLD FRONT SHIFTING JUST TO THE DOORSTEP OF WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW
LATE OVERNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT LOOK
TO BE VERY LIMITED SO ANY SNOW THAT DOES ARRIVE WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN HELPING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID 20S TOWARD THE LOW 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THEN LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THANKS TO A VERY ACTIVE JET STREAM THAT WILL
REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES. A SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST PVA
WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA WHILE THE MAIN
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH IN THE
VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. WITH THE FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN A ZONE OF
WEAKER FORCING IN BETWEEN THESE STRONGER FEATURES...AM THINKING THAT
WE WILL SEE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE
ACTIVITY ENOUGH TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD AS COMPARED TO THE RECENT COLD
WEATHER THANKS TO BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION THAT WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. READINGS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR THE REAL WARMUP THAT WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM
CONSIDERABLY AND AS SUCH HAVE BACKED OFF THURSDAY/S HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES AS THE WARM FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. WHILE 50 IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ATTAINED
THURSDAY...LOW TO MID 40S THAT ARE NO EXPECTED WILL STILL FEEL QUITE
BALMY COMPARED TO THE RECENT COLD.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE DEEPENING LOW OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE EXPECTED WARM FRONTAL PRECIP IS NOW NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE NAM IS DEFINITELY A FAST OUTLIER
REGARDING THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HILLTOPS AND TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS AS A VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY BE PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. AT THIS POINT
THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
THUNDER...HOWEVER GIVEN THE VERY STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...A SQUALL LINE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACCOMPANYING SUCH A SQUALL LINE WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY.
AS THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS HAS SLOWED UP...SO HAS THE TIMING OF THE
FLOOD POTENTIAL. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER ONCE THIS
OCCURS...THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE WARM FRONT
AND IN PARTICULAR THE POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ACCELERATING THE MELT OFF AND INCREASING THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL COME IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME
WHEN WE SHIFT TO A SHARP WARMING TREND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED FLOOD
POTENTIAL.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING TWO DISTINCT EASTERN PACIFIC WAVES
PHASING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...PROMOTING
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY PROMOTE STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA E
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INITIAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK
TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PROFILES BY THIS TIME LOOK TO BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN...ALTHOUGH IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS A BIT
SOONER THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE
IMMEDIATE ONSET. HOWEVER...FEEL ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY
SHORT LIVED AS STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL ADVECTION WILL EASILY OVERWHELM
PROFILES OVER TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
AFTER THIS INITIAL WARM/MOIST ADVECTIVE SURGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE
FOCUS WILL TURN TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION
OF THE PATTERN WITH REGARDS TO THE DEEPENING OF THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES STORM...THE ASSOCIATED POWERFUL COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE NATURE TO IT. SOME AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS MAINLY WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY BEING THE LIMITING
FACTOR...BUT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS ALOFT MAY SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IF AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE CAN
DEVELOP.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE ALSO A CONCERN...
ESPECIALLY IF ANY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE RAINFALL OCCURS. THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL CERTAINLY WILL BE INCREASED NOT ONLY FROM THE RAINFALL AND
WARM TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO WITH EXPECTED SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE UPPER 30S OR EVEN HIGHER WHICH WILL GREATLY ACCELERATE
SNOWMELT. FOR THESE REASONS A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY DENSE FOG
COULD BE AN ISSUE WITH DEWPOINTS THIS HIGH WORKING OVER THE FROZEN
GROUND.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY...THE COLDER AND DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN ITS WAKE WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE RUNOFF
SITUATION...BUT I WOULD EXPECT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS WHICH DO
DEVELOP TO BE ONGOING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT MUCH OF THIS WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AND
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THIS POINT AS SMALLER SCALE WAVES
WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL AMPLITUDE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE IS SOME BETTER MODEL SUPPORT
SHOWING REINFORCING COLDER AIR INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS IN
A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME LAKE RESPONSE ISSUES
OFF LAKE ERIE DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH OPEN WATER CAN DEVELOP FROM
THE INCOMING MILDER AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLSN THIS MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW FALLING ALONG A COLD FRONT
WHICH IS SWEEPING EAST ACROSS NEW YORK WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE MORNING TO KROC AND KART.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS ARE ALSO IMPACTING THE REGION AS
COLD AIR MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TRANSFER TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. VFR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST WITH A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF IT. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS BY 08-10Z.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. GUSTY
WINDS ARE REACHING INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE...ALTHOUGH
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT WAVE HEIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE BASIN ARE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO NECESSITATE A BRISK WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE ICE COVERED LAKE. STRONG WINDS COULD SEPARATE THE
LAKE ICE FROM THE SHORE OR CREATE OPEN LEADS IN THE ICE COVER...
MAKING IT ILL-ADVISED AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TO VENTURE OUT ON
LAKE ICE DURING THE STRONG WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A BRIEF DECREASE
IN WINDS TONIGHT BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLIES FRESHEN ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AS ANOTHER LOW PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR NYZ004>008-014.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085.
MARINE...BRISK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042>044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...TMA/WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
852 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 850 AM TUE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT PRESENT BUT WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE MORNING.
HOURLY RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS ATMOSPHERE DRYING OUT QUICKLY. WARM
FRONT THAT WAS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST HAS STARTED MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME QUASI ZONAL THROUGH THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN...TURNING SURFACE FLOW FROM NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT TO WESTERLY. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP
BRING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OS 217 AM TUE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES DURING THE NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND A HINT OF A WARM FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WED MORNING THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING DEEP WEST FLOW AND DECREASING CLOUDS WITH
RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BOOST TEMPS TO AROUND 70 INLAND WITH
LOW TO MID 60S AT THE BEACHES. A WEAK DRY FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WED NIGHT THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH ON THU. GIVEN THE LIMITED
FORCING AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW
ALTHO WUDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO AS THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES NORTH THRU THE AREA THU. A WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED ON
THU WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND IF ENOUGH SUN CAN
DEVELOP. MILD/WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THU NIGHT/FRIDAY. IT STILL APPEARS
THAT MOST PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY BUT A FEW
SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE SE COAST IN THE MOIST SW FLOW LATE THU NIGHT.
GOOD BAND OF MOISTURE WILL CROSS WITH FRONT FRI AFTN AND KEPT LIKELY
POPS. MDLS SHOWING GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT INSTAB SO THERE MAY BE A
SEVERE THREAT...CONT CHC TSRA WORDING FRI AFTN. WILL BE IN WARM
SECTOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND
60S CST. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BUT MAY
GET HUNG UNDER PARALLEL STEERING FLOW UP JUST OFF THE SE COAST WITH
A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE THRU SAT MORNING. BROAD TROF
PUSHING THRU THE EASTERN STATES WILL EVENTUALLY SHUNT THE BNDRY
FARTHER OFFSHORE YIELDING GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU THE AREA WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE FRONT
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 850 AM TUE...AM EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES BY MIDDAY WITH WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH GFS BRINGING IN LOWER CLOUDS
EARLIER AND NAM REMAINING CLEAR TIL SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE WED.
HAVE GONE WITH MVFR AFTER SUNSET IN THE TAFS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHRAS
ACROSS THE REGION WED MORN WITH THREAT OF SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
GENERALLY DRY WED AFTERNOON AND THU WITH MAINLY VFR...CANT RULE
OUT SCT FOG/LOW CLOUDS EARLY THU AS WARM FRONT CROSSES. BETTER CHC
OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES LATE THU NIGHT THRU FRI AS COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE REGION WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. LOOKS
LIKE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE E ON SAT WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 850 AM TUE...SEAS IN THE WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET ARE
RUNNING 3-5 FEET AND ARE NOT FORECAST TO GO ANY HIGHER SO WILL
DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS FROM OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE
ARE AVERAGING 6 FEET SO WILL TRIM BACK THE FORECAST THERE TO 4-6
FEET. WILL BUMP UP WIND SPEEDS IN THAT ZONE AS WELL SINCE DIAMOND
BUOY IS 20-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
PREV DISC...WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. COLD
FRONT EXPECT TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WATERS BY MIDDAY. CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS GRADIENT RELAXES...DROPPING
WIND AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MIDDAY. HIGH
RPESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME WESTERLY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OFFSHORE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES...BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DURING THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WSW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS WED AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. A FRONT DROPS SOUTH THRU THE AREA WED EVENING
WITH WINDS SHIFTING N THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THRU EARLY THU.
WINDS VEER TO SE/S THU/THU NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS S TO N. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY AGAIN AS S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS
FRI AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TOPPING OUT AT 6 TO 8 FT OUTER
WATERS. WINDS SHIFT N/NE WINDS AND DIMINISH BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BLO 6 FT
SATURDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/DAG
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/DAG/RF
MARINE...HSA/DAG/RF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1046 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...WE GOT OUR LAST LITTLE SURGE OF WIND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE RIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AS EXPECTED...BUT THE HIGH WIND
THREAT THERE IS NOW DIMINISHING. HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ON
THE PLAINS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER. SURGE OF STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE PRODUCED GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CORNER...AND THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER WINDS IS JUST
ABOUT TO BACK INTO THE DENVER AREA. WITH A LITTLE INCREASE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH A
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE NORTHEAST CORNER. WINDS CLOSER TO DENVER
MAY BE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDAY PERIOD AS
WELL...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
SOME DOUBT ABOUT THE TRANSITION TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...STILL THINK IT WILL HAPPEN
IN SOME FORM AS THE PLAINS WINDS START TO DECREASE...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE STABILITY CHANGE THAT SHOULD HAPPEN AROUND SUNSET.
NOT REALLY EXPECTING TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GRIDS...BUT I WILL
NEED TO BOOST WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY AND WILL REMAIN
STRONG WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS IN THE DENVER AREA THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS MAY START TO DROP OFF AT KBJC. A SHIFT TO
EASTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON...MAY BE A PERIOD OF
NE WINDS BUT THEN FAIRLY QUICKLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT
LIGHTER SPEEDS. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2014/
SHORT TERM...MODEL DEPICTIONS SHOW THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PACIFIC JET STREAM IS JUST MOVING OVER NORTHERN COLORADO IN THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS. THE PLATTEVILLE PROFILER SHOWS WESTERLY WINDS
OF 55 KNOTS DOWN TO 650 MB...NEAR RIDGETOP LEVEL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...JUSTIFYING THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. OVER THE PAST HOUR AND A HALF THE
DOPPLER RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING THE MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE
DESCENDING OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. MESONET OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BOULDER AND GOLDEN ARE SHOWING WIND
GUSTS TO 55-75 MPH WHILE 35-45 MPH GUSTS ARE BEING RECORDED FROM
EASTERN BOULDER EASTWARD TO ERIE. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING BEFORE TOO MUCH VERTICAL SHEAR DEVELOPS
AND THE MOUNTAIN WAVE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. THE RUC AND RAP MODELS
SHOW BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL MIXING OF WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SPEEDS ON THE PLAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HIGH
WIND CRITERIA...SO NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OUT THERE.
THE WINDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES MILD
ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO THEIR MAX READINGS BY ABOUT THE NOON HOUR. OTHER THAN THE
WIND AND WARM TEMPERATURES...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON WILL
BE THE ONLY OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENT TO WORRY ABOUT. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE DECREASING TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX AND
THE UPPER JET MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE.
LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED AFTN
INTO WED NIGHT AND THEN BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THU MORNING.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE MTNS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH
THE FLOW SWITCHING FM SWLY TO NWLY BY EARLY WED EVENING AS THE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. WITH DECENT LAPSES RATE AND MDT QG ASCENT IN
THE MID LVLS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IN THE
00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY TYPE
EVENT IN MOST PLACES WITH GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
SFC LOW PRES WILL INTENSIFY OVER ERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY AND
THEN MOVE EAST AS A CDFNT MOVES INTO NERN CO WED EVENING. AHEAD OF
THE FNT WILL SEE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH READINGS IN THE 55 TO 60
DEGREE RANGE. AS THE CDFNT MOVES ACROSS WED EVENING WILL SEE A
BETTER CHC OF PCPN OVER NERN CO AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS. SOUNDINGS SHOW RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 03Z SO
A FEW PLACES COULD PICK UP A QUICK INCH OR SO WITH PCPN DECREASING
AFTER 06Z.
ON THU DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER THERE WILL
STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE MTNS WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW. OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY
HOWEVER IT WILL BE WINDY AS BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL BE IN THE 35-40 KT
RANGE. THUS AS MIXING OCCURS WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH OVER THE PLAINS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS STG CAA WILL OCCUR.
FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT STG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA AS A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN
THE MTNS WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS AND DECENT LAPSE RATES BY FRI
ALONG WITH SOME QG ASCENT. THUS SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF SNOW IN THE
MTNS. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS WILL INCREASE
IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS CROSS MTN FLOW
INCREASES TO 65-70 KT. OTHERWISE FOR FRI THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE
NWLY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PCPN OVER THE PLAINS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL
KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER NERN CO.
BY THE WEEKEND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN MAINLY NWLY. THE ECMWF
SHOWS MORE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS FOR SAT WHICH ALLOWS FOR A BETTER
CHC OF SNOW IN THE MTNS. FURTHERMORE THE ECWMF SHOWS A CDFNT MOVING
INTO NERN CO ON SAT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT FURTHER NORTH OVER SERN
WY AND THE NE PNHDL. AS A RESULT THE ECWMF SHOWS SOME UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING BY AFTN OVER NERN CO WITH A CHC OF PCPN ESPECIALLY SAT
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS SHOWS NO PCPN DUE TO HAVING THE FNT AND BETTER
MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW WILL MENTION AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC
OF PCPN OVER NERN CO FOR SAT NIGHT. FOR SUN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MTNS AND OVER NERN CO THUS WILL ONLY
MENTION LOW POPS IN THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS.
LATEST 850-700 MB TEMPS WOULD KEEP READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S OVER NERN CO.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ENDLESS PATTERN OF NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER CDFNT MOVING INTO NERN CO ON MON WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS IT FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGHS OVER NERN CO IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH THE COLDER READINGS ALONG THE WY-NE
BORDER. NEITHER MODEL SHOWS A LOT OF MOISTURE SO WILL JUST HAVE LOW
POPS IN THE MTNS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS.
AVIATION...WITH ALL OF THE WESTERLY FLOW COMING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ONE WOULD EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS AT THE AIRPORTS... AND
AT TIMES WE HAVE SEEN THAT. AT OTHER TIMES...SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDEN AND EVEN A BRIEF EASTERLY WIND HAS
OCCURRED AT KBJC. AFTER THE SUN COMES UP...WINDS SHOULD BECOME ALL
WEST AS DAYTIME HEATING MIXES LOW LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE OBSERVED THROUGH ABOUT 17Z WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE UNLIMITED
ALL DAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ042-044-
048>051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM....RPK
AVIATION/UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
224 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT (WHICH SHOWS UP BETTER WITH
VERTICAL THICKNESS FIELD) IS MOVING SOUTH TO THE KS/NE BORDER WITH A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO DEVELOPMENT OF
WIND GUSTS 45-60 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
WINDS JUST STARTING TO COME UP ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE
LAST HOUR. STRONGEST GUSTS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL SURGE AS
SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTED SOUTH AND 3HR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND COLD
FRONT PEAKED AROUND 4MB. WINDS HAVE STABILIZED WITHIN ADVISORY
CRITERIA AFTER THIS INITIAL SURGE...SO DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD
ONTO ADVISORY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE BEING MET AT MOST OF WARNED
AREA...THOUGH INCREASING TD VALUES FROM THE NORTH ARE KEEPING RH
VALUES CLOSER TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE RFW. WE
MAY NOT MEET THE HIGH END THRESHOLD FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS...
HOWEVER WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF WIND...I SEE NO REASON TO MAKE A CHANGE
TO GOING HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. RFW/NPW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z.
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
MIXING AND WEAKENING GRADIENT THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT AND DIURNAL HEATING WEDNESDAY. LEE TROUGH ALSO REDEVELOPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW SUPPORTING WAA
ACROSS THE WEST. I BUMPED LOW TEMPS UP TONIGHT AND HIGH TEMPS UP WED
FOR NOW...AND COULD SEE BOTH PERIODS BEING A LITTLE WARMER/COOLER
THAN ADVERTISED DEPENDING ON CLOUDS. OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE
BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASE
AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES
INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 750MB-800MB WHICH KEEPS WINDS JUST
UNDER (OR NEAR) ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND WITH CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY
LIMITING MIXING OVERALL...I DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER
ADVISORY WED AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DOES APPROACH CENTRAL
ROCKIES WED AFTERNOON AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING
WINDS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING DOES BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVER THE ROCKIES...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL WED EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCE/PHASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE AND
ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE ATLANTIC. NEXT SHORTWAVE
OF INTEREST IS ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. VERY DRY AIR MASS
ALOFT AT THIS TIME.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...LOOKS TO BE
NO SERIOUS INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS WITH THE MODELS MAYBE A LITTLE
TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...UKMET
AND GFS APPEAR TO BE DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER. ECMWF AND SREF WERE
DOING WELL INITIALLY WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE PATTERN.
THE CANADIAN...UKMET AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREA TRANSITIONS FROM WARM...DRY AND WINDY TO
COLD...WET AND WINDY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE JET AND
TROUGH POSITION. SOME MODELS HAVE THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT WELL
SOUTH...AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OR STILL TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...THE JET AXIS HAS MOVED
ACROSS WITH THE MAIN AFFECT FROM THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. VERY STRONG
FRONTOGENITICAL FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY IN THE
EVENING TO LATE IN THE NIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEAR ZERO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ARE NOT ONLY AT MID LEVELS FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT
BUT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ARE AT LOW LEVELS.
SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS PRETTY HIGH. THE QUESTION
BECOMES WHEN WILL THE PHASE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND HOW MUCH
SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER THIS HAPPENS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WET BULB
PROGS WOULD INDICATE THE NORTHWEST HALF WILL TRANSITION FROM A
RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY TO ALL SNOW BY 06Z. THE SOUTHEAST HALF WILL
HAVE RAIN UNTIL NEAR 05-06Z BEFORE RAPIDLY CHANGING TO SNOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEARS A HALF INCH OVER THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA. LIKE THE REPRESENTATION OF QPF THAT WPC HAS AND
USED AS A THE BUILDING BLOCK FOR THE QPF AND SNOWFALL. WPC SLR
GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A NEAR 13 TO 1 RATIO IS NEAR NORMAL AND THAT
SEEMS REASONABLE. SO CONSIDERING THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY...THE
SNOW COULD BE RATHER INTENSE AT TIMES DURING THE NIGHT.
SO WITH USING THE WPC QPF AND CUTTING OFF A LITTLE BIT DUE TO THE
EXPECTED PHASE TO BE RAIN...CAME UP WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE
LOWEST IN THE FAR SOUTH AND THE MOST FROM YUMA COUNTY TO THE COUNTIES
ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER.
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CERTAINTY.
EXTREMELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF NEAR
10 MB WILL PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. AND THAT IS NOT EVEN
CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXING DOWN EVEN STRONGER WINDS.
THOUGHT LONG AND HARD ABOUT HOW TO HANDLE THIS SCENARIO. WINDS
SHOULD BE IN THE HIGH WIND ADVISORY TO LOW HIGH WIND WARNING RANGE.
SO DESPITE THE AMOUNT OF SNOW EXPECTED...SIGNIFICANT BLOWING OF THAT
SNOW IS EXPECTED. DUE TO HOW FAST THE SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...3
HOURS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHICH WOULD
MEAN A BLIZZARD WARNING. AFTER PLENTY OF DISCUSSION WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EMPHASIZE THAT NEAR BLIZZARD
OR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WITH
VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE TO A MILE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SNOW SHOULD BE DONE BY THE END OF THE NIGHT PLUS THE WINDS
SHOULD GO DOWN BY THAT TIME. SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
FOR THE WHOLE NIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT ENDING AT 6 TO 7 AM LOCAL TIME.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF INCOMING
NORTH TO SOUTH JET...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. THAT SEGMENT FLATTENS OUT WITH A WEST TO EAST JET AXIS AND
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME ALL THE MOISTURE IS ALOFT SO THIS WILL
ONLY CAUSE CLOUDS.
THE BIG PROBLEM WILL BE THAT WINDS WILL COME UP AGAIN DURING THE
DAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW
MUCH MIXING WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH...DUE TO SNOW ON THE
GROUND. LOOK TO STAY MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT. DURING THE DAY THERE IS
GOOD UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH DECENT DOWNWARD MOTION. MODELS SHOW
GOOD LAPSE RATES TO AT LEAST 700 MB. SO IT WOULD APPEAR THINGS WILL
MIX WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY...
POSSIBLY HIGH END...AND POSSIBLY REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA. SO WILL KEEP WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE ADDRESSED AFTER THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS DONE.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND HOW MUCH IF ANY THE SNOW CRUSTS
OVER...THERE COULD BE SOME MORE BLOWING SNOW DESPITE NO PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING. SO DID PUT IN PATCHY BLOWING SNOW AT THIS TIME. WILL PUT
MAXES IN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY...ABOVE JET MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT VARIOUS SPEEDS AND
WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS
JUST LOOKS TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. MODELS SHOWING WIND SPEEDS
INCREASING INTO THE WINDY CATEGORY AGAIN. LAPSE RATES LOOK TO STILL
STAY GOOD BUT THE FLOW IS NOT AS UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE DOWNWARD
MOTION IS NOT AS GREAT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE MIXING
DOWN OF A LEAST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS AGAIN. WILL DEFINITELY
TRY AND HAVE WINDY WORDING IN THERE AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMER BUT NOT SURE DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AT END OF THE SHORT TERM INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA AND HUDSON BAY LOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION IS VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN. WILL
HAVE VERY FAST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
AND JET ENERGY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE HARD TO COME BY IN THIS
SCENARIO. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF AND SPOTTY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. SO LEFT THE CRH_INIT POPS ALONE WHICH WERE NO HIGHER THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
COLDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COMING BACK. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
A SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS A SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. SO
FOLLOWED OTHER OFFICES AND MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS DOWN IN
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY THE MAXES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2014
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN
BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR AT BOTH
KGLD/KMCK. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON HOW THIS WOULD IMPACT EACH
TERMINAL...SO I LEFT MENTION OUT. WILL MONITOR FOR THESE
CONDITIONS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. REGARDING WINDS...THERE SHOULD BE
AN INCREASING TREND OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH AND PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. GUSTS AROUND 40KT ARE STILL
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN WINDS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WINDS SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY TO 6
AM MST /7 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ001-002-013-027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY TO
6 AM MST /7 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ003-004-014>016-028-029-
041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY TO 6
AM MST /7 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
145 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MST TUE FEB 18 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT (WHICH SHOWS UP BETTER WITH
VERTICAL THICKNESS FIELD) IS MOVING SOUTH TO THE KS/NE BORDER WITH A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO DEVELOPMENT OF
WIND GUSTS 45-60 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH
WINDS JUST STARTING TO COME UP ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE
LAST HOUR. STRONGEST GUSTS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL SURGE AS
SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTED SOUTH AND 3HR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND COLD
FRONT PEAKED AROUND 4MB. WINDS HAVE STABILIZED WITHIN ADVISORY
CRITERIA AFTER THIS INITIAL SURGE...SO DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD
ONTO ADVISORY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE BEING MET AT MOST OF WARNED
AREA...THOUGH INCREASING TD VALUES FROM THE NORTH ARE KEEPING RH
VALUES CLOSER TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE RFW. WE
MAY NOT MEET THE HIGH END THRESHOLD FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF WIND...I SEE NO REASON TO MAKE A CHANGE TO
GOING HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. RFW/NPW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z.
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
MIXING AND WEAKENING GRADIENT THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT AND DIURNAL HEATING WEDNESDAY. LEE TROUGH ALSO REDEVELOPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW SUPPORTING WAA
ACROSS THE WEST. I BUMPED LOW TEMPS UP TONIGHT AND HIGH TEMPS UP WED
FOR NOW...AND COULD SEE BOTH PERIODS BEING A LITTLE WARMER/COOLER
THAN ADVERTISED DEPENDING ON CLOUDS. OTHER IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE
BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASE
AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES
INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 750MB-800MB WHICH KEEPS WINDS JUST
UNDER (OR NEAR) ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND WITH CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY
LIMITING MIXING OVERALL...I DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER
ADVISORY WED AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DOES APPROACH CENTRAL
ROCKIES WED AFTERNOON AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING
WINDS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING DOES BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVER THE ROCKIES...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL WED EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2014
A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH TRACKS A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2014
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN
BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR AT BOTH
KGLD/KMCK. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON HOW THIS WOULD IMPACT EACH
TERMINAL...SO I LEFT MENTION OUT. WILL MONITOR FOR THESE
CONDITIONS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. REGARDING WINDS...THERE SHOULD BE
AN INCREASING TREND OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH AND PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. GUSTS AROUND 40KT ARE STILL
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN WINDS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WINDS SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY TO 6
AM MST /7 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ001-002-013-027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY TO
6 AM MST /7 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ003-004-014>016-028-029-
041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM MST THURSDAY
FOR COZ090>092.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY TO 6
AM MST /7 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1100 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2014
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
Water vapor imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate a prevailing
westerly flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a
weak upper level shortwave trough is tracking eastward across the
Northern Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure
extends from extreme northwesterly Kansas down into southeastern
Colorado. Low level moisture has increased somewhat across central
and southwest Kansas with surface dewpoints up into the 20s(F).
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
A Wind Advisory is in effect from 1 pm CST to 7 pm CST today. A
cold front will sweep down from Nebraska, and northwest winds
behind the front will increase to 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
An upper level, sharply amplified trough over the Great Lakes region
will move northeast today and tonight. A zonal westerly flow from
the Rockies into to the plains will persist today. The main affect
will be streaming cirrus clouds across Kansas, and a slight down
slope warming affect. Nearer the surface, a low level jet of around
40 knots will set up across western Kansas towards 12z this morning,
and persist until it migrates to the east by 18z. This jet will mix
down partially, but probably not totally. Therefore, I think winds
will be from the southwest at 15 mph gusting to near 30 mph today,
and subside to westerly at 10 to 20 mph after 20z. A weak cold
front will drop south through the afternoon, and this will cause
winds to shift to the west as well. It will be unseasonably warm
with highs ranging from the mid 60s near Hays to the lower 70s
around Elkhart. Max temps may occur early today, prior to the cold
frontal passage. I loaded model Dew Points from the EC, GFS, NAM,
RUC and HRRR models, and the only model with lower dew points than
the others was the HRRR model. If the HRRR guidance Dew Points are
correct, we would have RH`s below 15% in our western half. But
since the other 4 models favored Dew Points in the upper teens and
20s, plus the fact that frequent gusts to 25 mph do not seem
likely, I decided not to issue a Red Flag Warning today. It should
be windier to the north of our forecast area, as well as drier, so
I can see the reason for fire headlines to my north.
The tonight period was not changed. The flow aloft will still be
from the west, and surface high pressure will be in control. Low
temperatures will be relatively mild for mid February, and should
settle into the 30F degree range in our western zones near Syracuse
and Johnson City, into the lower 30s in our north around Hays and
Ness City, and to the middle 30s in locations such as Medicine
Lodge, Pratt and Coldwater. Winds tonight should drop off fairly
mild from an east to northeast direction with that high building
down. By morning, winds should be from the south at 5 to 10 mph.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
Busy extended period with a fairly significant cyclone to deal with
Wednesday/Thursday. The weighted blend solution (Friday onward) was
left as is.
Anyway, the main focus was on Wednesday and Thursday. A fairly intense
trof is located across the northeastern Pacific and into western Canada
as of this morning. This upper level feature will eventually be the
impetus to our sensible weather impacts midweek. The trof will be located
across the central Rockies Thursday morning. Significant dynamics are
associated with this as a 110-120 kt 250 hPa jet streak rounds the base
of the longwave trof and ejects across Kansas. An ageostrophic response
will lead to impressive surface cyclogenesis Wednesday evening through
Thursday evening across Kansas. Ahead of the sfc cyclone, low 40F dewpoints
will advect in across the warm sector. Depending on which model you
believe, some of the solutions are generating a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE. At this point, cannot rule out a rumble of thunder Wednesday
evening across central and south central Kansas. Moreover, The entire
lower tropospheric response is very impressive with a deep sfc to 850
hPa cyclone. Temperature advections are very impressive as well with
strong warm air advection Wednesday evening, followed by intense cold
air advection Thursday morning. This system has a lot of downslope southwesterly
momentum associated with it, so that will limit precipitation for the
southern 2/3rds of the forecast area of responsibility. Low level thermodynamic
profiles are rather warm, and this in combination with a delayed saturated
dendritic zone will limit overall snowfall amounts. Still, cannot rule
out an inch or so along the I70 corridor as the 700/850 hPa deformation
zone strengthens on the backside of the departing cyclone. Have made
spatiotemporal adjustments to pops with the highest probabilities across
the northern zones in association with WAA ahead of the cyclone and
the deformation zone is the most pronounced and developed behind the
cyclone. This area is also closer to the left exit region and the related
transverse circulation providing lift. Lastly, the whole kinematic profile
is very strong and a solid wind advisory is a no-brainer for Thursday.
Will defer to later shifts as we already have one issued in the short
term period. It will be very windy Thursday.
Beyond that, zonal to northwesterly flow aloft will continue thru the
weekend and into next week. This favors cooler temperatures, particularly
next week as colder 850 hPa temperatures advect in the wake of as passing
synoptic trof.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday
morning. As for winds, a weak cold front will push southward across
western Kansas this afternoon turning winds northerly 20 to 30kt
through early this evening. Surface high pressure will quickly
follow southeastward across western Kansas tonight resulting in
light and variable winds through daybreak Wednesday. Winds will
then become southerly 15 to 25kt mid to late morning Wednesday as
the surface high departs to the east.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 35 61 37 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 67 35 62 33 / 0 0 0 20
EHA 72 37 67 34 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 72 35 66 36 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 65 33 59 35 / 0 0 10 50
P28 67 35 60 46 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CST this evening
FOR KSZ030-031-043>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Burke
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
500 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MOVE OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST INTO
THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SIN FROM
THE WEST ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
458 PM...BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE RACING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL RATES HAVE APPROACHED 3 INCHES PER HOUR
IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. I`VE ADJUSTED AMOUNTS UP A BIT FOR THIS
UPDATE AND EXPANDED THE WARNING TO INCLUDE SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.
PREV DISC...
LOW PRES IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST ATTM. BASED ON RADAR AND SFC OBSERVATIONS...IT WOULD SEEM AS
IF LOW PRES WILL TRACK JUST N OF KPYM AND INTO THE GULF OF ME.
HEAVY SNFL HAS WORKED INTO SRN NH AND ADJACENT SWRN ME...WITH
RATES APPROACHING 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. SNFL TOTALS ARE ALREADY
PUSHING 4 TO 6 OR MORE ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY.
BASED ON MODEL PROGS AND REPORTS...FEEL THAT THIS IS THE AREA NOW
IN LINE FOR HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE CWFA. HAVE INCREASED QPF AND
SNFL FORECAST FOR THIS AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA USED A BLEND
OF THE ECMWF...NAM12...RAP...AND NERFC QPF. THIS SHIFTED THE
HEAVIEST SN A LITTLE EWD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SNFL AMOUNTS
STILL MATCHED HEADLINES WELL...SO THEY WILL REMAIN AS IS.
ELY WINDS HAVE ALSO WARMED THE IMMEDIATE COAST AOA FREEZING.
DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL ALLOW WET BULB
COOLING TO KEEP PCPN MOSTLY SN. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE WETTER IN
NATURE AND CLING TO POWER LINES/TREES LEADING TO SCT POWER
OUTAGES. ELY WINDS ARE ALSO DOWNSLOPING ON THE N SIDE OF THE
WHITES...DRYING OUT THE COLUMN. SN WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE GROUND AT TIMES IN THE FAR N.
AS FOR SRN NH INTO SWRN ME...HEAVY SNFL REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE EVENING. RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
KCON TO NEAR KPWM APPROACHING A MAUL...MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE
LAYER. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS AN AREA OF 6 TO 7 DEG/KM LAPSE RATES
ALOFT WORKING INTO THE REGION THRU THE EVENING. THIS KIND OF
INSTABILITY WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION IN THE WARM
SEASON...LET ALONE FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT REPORTS OF
LIGHTNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. CONSIDERING THE SNFL OCCURRING ATTM IN SERN
NH...SEE NO REASON WHY THIS TREND WON/T THEN CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS INTO SWRN ME. THIS IS ALL ONGOING AS MID LEVEL LOW
CENTER QUICKLY SPIN UP...MAXIMIZING DYNAMICS. AS THESE MATURE THIS
EVENING...SN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER TO MORE MODEST RATES. AS FORCING
SHIFTS EWD...SN WILL RAPIDLY END FROM S TO N AROUND MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS SOON AS TONIGHT`S STORM LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON ITS HEELS...FOLLOWING A
SIMILAR PATH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS STORM IS FORMING A
LITTLE TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE THAN 1-3 INCHES AS IT
MOVES QUICKLY BY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IS REINFORCED EVERY 18 HRS OR SO.
THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES AS WELL AS NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP ANY COLD AIR FROM TAKING HOLD FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...SOME COLDER AIR DOES MANAGE TO SNEAK IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED BY A WARM FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET OF THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT
SUPPORTS A LARGE SWATH OF FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET
FRIDAY MORNING AS WARMER AIR OVERRIDES FREEZING TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT IT WILL OCCUR DURING MORNING RUSH
HOUR. AS WARMER AIR IS DRAGGED DOWN WE WILL TRANSITION TO A MOSTLY
RAIN EVENT DURING THE DAY WITH A LITTLE WRAP AROUND SNOW ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS MUCH MORE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH THAN WE HAVE HAD LATELY...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF SNOW MELT AND POSSIBLY ICE JAM ISSUES.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING/...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR
EXPECTED S OF THE FOOTHILLS THRU THIS EVENING. N OF THE MTNS IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE VARIABLE AS DOWNSLOPING DRIES OUT THE AIR
MASS. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE FROM S TO N AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM...ADDITIONAL SNOW IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL PRODUCE LIFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN WILL CREATE POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
INTO WED MORNING.
LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KTS AND WAVES IN THE 4-6 FT
RANGE...MAINLY OUTSIDE THE BAYS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>020-
023>026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MEZ012>014-021-022-027-028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ006-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NHZ002>005-007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ008-010-
013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
328 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MOVE OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST INTO
THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SIN FROM
THE WEST ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRES IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST ATTM. BASED ON RADAR AND SFC OBSERVATIONS...IT WOULD SEEM AS
IF LOW PRES WILL TRACK JUST N OF KPYM AND INTO THE GULF OF ME.
HEAVY SNFL HAS WORKED INTO SRN NH AND ADJACENT SWRN ME...WITH
RATES APPROACHING 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. SNFL TOTALS ARE ALREADY
PUSHING 4 TO 6 OR MORE ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY.
BASED ON MODEL PROGS AND REPORTS...FEEL THAT THIS IS THE AREA NOW
IN LINE FOR HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE CWFA. HAVE INCREASED QPF AND
SNFL FORECAST FOR THIS AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA USED A BLEND
OF THE ECMWF...NAM12...RAP...AND NERFC QPF. THIS SHIFTED THE
HEAVIEST SN A LITTLE EWD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SNFL AMOUNTS
STILL MATCHED HEADLINES WELL...SO THEY WILL REMAIN AS IS.
ELY WINDS HAVE ALSO WARMED THE IMMEDIATE COAST AOA FREEZING.
DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL ALLOW WET BULB
COOLING TO KEEP PCPN MOSTLY SN. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE WETTER IN
NATURE AND CLING TO POWER LINES/TREES LEADING TO SCT POWER
OUTAGES. ELY WINDS ARE ALSO DOWNSLOPING ON THE N SIDE OF THE
WHITES...DRYING OUT THE COLUMN. SN WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE GROUND AT TIMES IN THE FAR N.
AS FOR SRN NH INTO SWRN ME...HEAVY SNFL REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE EVENING. RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
KCON TO NEAR KPWM APPROACHING A MAUL...MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE
LAYER. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS AN AREA OF 6 TO 7 DEG/KM LAPSE RATES
ALOFT WORKING INTO THE REGION THRU THE EVENING. THIS KIND OF
INSTABILITY WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION IN THE WARM
SEASON...LET ALONE FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT REPORTS OF
LIGHTNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. CONSIDERING THE SNFL OCCURRING ATTM IN SERN
NH...SEE NO REASON WHY THIS TREND WON/T THEN CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS INTO SWRN ME. THIS IS ALL ONGOING AS MID LEVEL LOW
CENTER QUICKLY SPIN UP...MAXIMIZING DYNAMICS. AS THESE MATURE THIS
EVENING...SN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER TO MORE MODEST RATES. AS FORCING
SHIFTS EWD...SN WILL RAPIDLY END FROM S TO N AROUND MIDNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS SOON AS TONIGHT`S STORM LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON ITS HEELS...FOLLOWING A
SIMILAR PATH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS STORM IS FORMING A
LITTLE TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE THAN 1-3 INCHES AS IT
MOVES QUICKLY BY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IS REINFORCED EVERY 18 HRS OR SO.
THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES AS WELL AS NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP ANY COLD AIR FROM TAKING HOLD FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...SOME COLDER AIR DOES MANAGE TO SNEAK IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED BY A WARM FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET OF THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT
SUPPORTS A LARGE SWATH OF FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET
FRIDAY MORNING AS WARMER AIR OVERRIDES FREEZING TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT IT WILL OCCUR DURING MORNING RUSH
HOUR. AS WARMER AIR IS DRAGGED DOWN WE WILL TRANSITION TO A MOSTLY
RAIN EVENT DURING THE DAY WITH A LITTLE WRAP AROUND SNOW ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS MUCH MORE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH THAN WE HAVE HAD LATELY...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF SNOW MELT AND POSSIBLY ICE JAM ISSUES.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING/...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR
EXPECTED S OF THE FOOTHILLS THRU THIS EVENING. N OF THE MTNS IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE VARIABLE AS DOWNSLOPING DRIES OUT THE AIR
MASS. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE FROM S TO N AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM...ADDITIONAL SNOW IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL PRODUCE LIFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN WILL CREATE POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
INTO WED MORNING.
LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KTS AND WAVES IN THE 4-6 FT
RANGE...MAINLY OUTSIDE THE BAYS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>020-
023>026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MEZ012>014-021-022-027-028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ006-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NHZ002>005-007-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ008-010-
013.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
LEGRO/HANES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
508 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NCNTRL STATES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE ARE
SEVERAL VORT MAXES WITHIN THE TROF. AHEAD OF ONE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN
ONTARIO INTO MN...RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING UP IN NE MN AND
NOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN DRY LOW-LEVELS...PCPN HAS NOT BEEN
ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND.
AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT...
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PATCHY -SN/FLURRIES OR -FZDZ COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WHERE SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
ADVECTED N OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. IF LAYER BTWN THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SHALLOW MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE DOES NOT MOISTEN SUFFICIENTLY...
THEN -FZDZ WILL BE THE PTYPE IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...
HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR -FZDZ OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
AN UPSLOPE WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE. THERE IS AN
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DWPTS THAT WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG AND EVEN
-FZDZ. HOWEVER...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ONLY A VERY SHALLOW SFC
BASED MOIST LAYER AND SINCE MUCH OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS ICED OVER
TO GREATLY LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTENING FROM THE LAKE...-FZDZ
POTENTIAL SEEMS VERY MINIMAL ATTM. OUTSIDE OF THOSE CONCERNS...
TONIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMER NIGHTS IN QUITE A WHILE UNDER
PACIFIC AIR MASS. EXPECT MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.
WED WILL BE A DRY DAY AS MIDLEVEL TROF SHIFTS E OF THE AREA AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE
SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGERING INTO WED MORNING OVER THE NW AND MORE
LIKELY THE NE FCST AREA...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE A GOOD DISPLAY OF
SUNSHINE WED. HIGHER MID TO LATE FEB SUN ANGLE WORKING ON THE LOWER
ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 30S AND
EVEN INTO THE LWR 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO REACH THE MID 40S WHERE DOWNSLOPING
OCCURS. WITH W TO WNW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...TEMPS WILL BE
COOLEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER WRN UPPER MI AND OVER THE NE FCST
AREA. IN THOSE LOCATIONS...TEMPS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING NEAR THE LAKE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
WED NIGHT...
HIGH PRES AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING SRLY WINDS AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS THE WAA REGIME
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND SFC
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES AND THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL FEATURES. THE WPC
FAVORED ECMWF/GEM REMAINED A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE TRACK
COMPARED TO THE GFS. SINCE THE 12Z NAM WAS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF...IT WAS USED FOR MORE OF THE FCST DETAILS. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH FROM NEAR MKE AT
00Z/FRI TO NEAR MARQUETTE AT 06Z/FRI AND INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AT
12Z/FRI.
THE POTENT MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AND
FGEN COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE INFLOW SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST THIRD
OF THE CWA. WITH AN ELEVATED DGZ AOA 10K FT...SLR ONLY AROUND 12Z/1
ARE EXPECTED LEADING TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AOA 10 INCHES OVER THE WEST
AND AROUND 6 INCHES CENTRAL. MIXED PCPN IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
EAST HALF WITH AN 850-700 MB WARM LAYER MOVING LATE THU INTO THU
EVENING. WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...A MIX OF SN/PL/FZRA BEFORE
THE PCPN CHANGES BACK TO SNOW LATE. THERE IS STILL MORE UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE TIMING OVER THE EAST HALF GIVEN
LINGERING MODEL DIFFERENCES. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF UPPER MI LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...STRONG WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. NAM BUFKIT MIXED LAYER WINDS IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE OVER THE
KEWEENAW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG SFC WINDS WITH SEVERE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SO...A BLIZZARD WATCH WAS POSTED FOR THE
KEWEENAW. OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA WILL ALSO BLSN BUT WILL
HAVE FEWER IMPACTS WITH A WEST WIND. THE WINDS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG WINDS
MAY BREAK UP SOME OF THE LAKE ICE...THE REMAINING EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW OR LES. HOWEVER...THE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT COULD STILL
BOOST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NW CWA.
SAT-TUE...
ONLY SMALL CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FOR WNW/W
FLOW AREAS AS TEMPS ARE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LAKE EFFECT RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE EXTENSIVE ICE ON LAKE SUPERIOR IT WILL
BE BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH OPEN WATER DEVELOPS AFTER THE
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. AWAY FROM ANY LAKE EFFECT...THE
RETURNING COLD WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH READINGS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY IN THE TEENS. THE COLD REGIME LOOKS TO AS THE WRN CONUS RIDGE
REEMERGES AND ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM WRN
CANADA. HOWEVER...THE MODELS WERE LESS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE
VERY COLD AIR COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM 10 TO 15 AND LOWS FROM ZERO TO AT LEAST 5
BELOW. WIND CHILLS MON AND TUE MORNING ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP TO
NEAR 20 BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
PERSISTENT STRATUS AFFECTING KSAW WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS IS GRADUALLY
ERODING FROM THE EDGES. EXPECT A TREND TO VFR IN THE NEXT HR.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STRATUS IS QUICKLY ADVECTING N UP LAKE MICHIGAN
AND MAY BRING LOW MVFR CIGS TO KSAW LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING. PASSAGE
OF SFC TROF AND WIND SHIFT TO A DOWNSLOPE W DIRECTION WILL BRING A
RETURN OF VFR LATE EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT. TO THE W...KIWD/KCMX
WILL REMAIN VFR THIS AFTN. AXIS OF HIGH DWPTS ACCOMPANYING A WIND
SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE W DIRECTION MAY BRING STRATUS/LOW MVFR CIG OR
PERHAPS IFR TO KCMX THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. LOW CLOUDS APPEAR LESS LIKELY TO
FORM AT KIWD...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 30 KTS THROUGH WED. POTENTIAL FOR
A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH PRESSURE
LOWER THAN 975MB OR 29 INCHES TO LIFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. NW GALES LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WESTERLY GALES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN A
RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ006-007-012>014-085.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-009-010-084.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ005-011.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
405 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NCNTRL STATES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE ARE
SEVERAL VORT MAXES WITHIN THE TROF. AHEAD OF ONE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN
ONTARIO INTO MN...RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING UP IN NE MN AND
NOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN DRY LOW-LEVELS...PCPN HAS NOT BEEN
ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND.
AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT...
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT PATCHY -SN/FLURRIES OR -FZDZ COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WHERE SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
ADVECTED N OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. IF LAYER BTWN THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SHALLOW MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE DOES NOT MOISTEN SUFFICIENTLY...
THEN -FZDZ WILL BE THE PTYPE IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...
HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR -FZDZ OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
AN UPSLOPE WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE. THERE IS AN
AXIS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DWPTS THAT WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG AND EVEN
-FZDZ. HOWEVER...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ONLY A VERY SHALLOW SFC
BASED MOIST LAYER AND SINCE MUCH OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS ICED OVER
TO GREATLY LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTENING FROM THE LAKE...-FZDZ
POTENTIAL SEEMS VERY MINIMAL ATTM. OUTSIDE OF THOSE CONCERNS...
TONIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMER NIGHTS IN QUITE A WHILE UNDER
PACIFIC AIR MASS. EXPECT MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.
WED WILL BE A DRY DAY AS MIDLEVEL TROF SHIFTS E OF THE AREA AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE
SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGERING INTO WED MORNING OVER THE NW AND MORE
LIKELY THE NE FCST AREA...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE A GOOD DISPLAY OF
SUNSHINE WED. HIGHER MID TO LATE FEB SUN ANGLE WORKING ON THE LOWER
ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 30S AND
EVEN INTO THE LWR 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO REACH THE MID 40S WHERE DOWNSLOPING
OCCURS. WITH W TO WNW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...TEMPS WILL BE
COOLEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER WRN UPPER MI AND OVER THE NE FCST
AREA. IN THOSE LOCATIONS...TEMPS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING NEAR THE LAKE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT QUIET COMPARED TO LATE
THIS WEEK. RAN WITH MENTION OF FZDZ OVR NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST CWA
EARLY WEDNESDAY WHERE ONSHORE/UPSLOPING FLOW IS FORECAST ALONG WITH
MOISTURE TO H9 AND EVEN SOME LIFT WITHIN THAT MOIST LAYER. SPEED
SHEAR ALSO THERE WHICH CAN SOMETIMES ENHANCE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. AFTER
LOW CLOUDS GET OUT OF THE WAY BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...NUDGED TEMPS UP
IN THE AFTN WITH READINGS OVER INTERIOR WEST AND SCNTRL POSSIBLY
CRACKING 40 DEGREES AS GEM GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR A FEW DAYS NOW.
FORECAST GETS VERY INTERESTING BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
NO DOUBT ABOUT IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO LATCH ON TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A VERY MAJOR AND HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AND THIS IS JUST THE WINTER SIDE TO
THIS SYSTEM. SEVERE WEATHER...MAYBE EVEN FORM OF A LARGER SCALE
SQUALL LINE...COULD AFFECT OHIO VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MAYBE
AS FAR NORTH AS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
ON THAT FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES AS FAR NORTH
AS UPPER GREAT LAKES ON NOSE OF DRY SLOT WORKING THROUGH LATER
THURSDAY. SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK DOES HAVE EASTERN HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN IN
GENERAL THUNDER PROBS.
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN MSLP/THERMAL FIELDS THE LAST FEW RUNS
FROM THE MAIN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH IS
IMPRESSIVE. ENTHUSIASM AND CONFIDENCE IN MODEL AGREEMENT IS TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT THOUGH AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE THAT WILL HELP DEVELOP THE
STRONG SFC LOW IS STILL OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING AND THE
FORECAST STRONG DEEPENING OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WITH IT
ARE DIRECTLY DEPENDANT ON PHASING OF SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WITH
INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS IS ALWAYS A TRICKY
PROPOSITION. PROBABLY WILL SEE SOME SHIFTING AROUND IN TERMS OF
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF LOW AND WARM LAYER ALOFT. IF IT ALL COMES TO
FRUITION AS MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE THOUGH...SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM
WOULD IMPACT UPR MICHIGAN. WOULD ALSO BE ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT PER
1000-850/850-700MB THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS FOR SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTH AND EAST CWA...MAINLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
DEGREE OF ICING IS UNCERTAIN...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON TREATMENT OF
ROADS AND ALSO TIMING OF SWITCH OVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN. WPC WWD GRAPHICS
INDICATE SNOW AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY OF 8-10 INCHES TAPERING TO 4-6 INCHES OVER EASTERN CWA ALONG
WITH ICE AMOUNTS THERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
IMPACT TOWARD THE END OF THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW WOULD BE A FULL
FLEDGED BLIZZARD ALONG EXPOSED SHORELINE OF WESTERN LK SUPERIOR
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. FORECAST SUB 970MB LOW TO NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR AT 12Z
FRIDAY WITH WEST WINDS AT H85 OF 45 KTS AND SUFFICIENT MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AT H85-H7 WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -12C WOULD BE BAD
ENOUGH ON ITS OWN. ADD FACT THAT WESTERN LK SUPERIOR IS COVERED WITH
ICE AND THERE WILL BE ONGOING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IT CERTAINLY SEEMS THERE ARE THE MAKINGS OF
WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE U.P. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WOULD BE IMPACTED BY CONSIDERABLE BLSN DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE SFC
LOW. WORST CONDITIONS WOULD BE ON THE KEWEENAW THOUGH. SYSTEM REALLY
BEARS WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUCH HIGH IMPACTS FROM THE
SNOW...ICE...AND WIND. IF THIS SYSTEM ENDS UP AS FORECAST RIGHT
NOW...A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. WILL START OUT HIGHLIGHTING IT THIS
MORNING BY ISSUING AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. ALSO WILL KEEP
MENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
REST OF EXTENDED...KEPT WITH MONDAY DAYSHIFT THINKING OF SMALL CHANCE
POPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR FOR WNW/W FLOW AREAS AS TEMPS ARE SUFFICIENTLY
COLD FOR LAKE EFFECT RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOT OF ICE ON LK
SUPERIOR BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH OPEN WATER APPEARS
AFTER THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. AWAY FM ANY LAKE
EFFECT...THE RETURNING COLD WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH READINGS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE TEENS. BEYOND THE EXTENDED...COLD
REGIME LOOKS TO REASSERT ITSELF AS WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TIED TO THE
PERSISTENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN REAPPEARS. 00Z ECMWF BACKED OFF SOME
BUT STILL LOOKS QUITE COLD BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN
NEAR -28C. PROBABLY WILL BE DEALING WITH A RETURN OF WIND CHILL ISSUES
BY THAT TIME. MORAL OF THE STORY...ENJOY BRIEF RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS
AS BY THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND THEY WILL BE JUST A DISTANT MEMORY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
PERSISTENT STRATUS AFFECTING KSAW WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS IS GRADUALLY
ERODING FROM THE EDGES. EXPECT A TREND TO VFR IN THE NEXT HR.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STRATUS IS QUICKLY ADVECTING N UP LAKE MICHIGAN
AND MAY BRING LOW MVFR CIGS TO KSAW LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING. PASSAGE
OF SFC TROF AND WIND SHIFT TO A DOWNSLOPE W DIRECTION WILL BRING A
RETURN OF VFR LATE EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT. TO THE W...KIWD/KCMX
WILL REMAIN VFR THIS AFTN. AXIS OF HIGH DWPTS ACCOMPANYING A WIND
SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE W DIRECTION MAY BRING STRATUS/LOW MVFR CIG OR
PERHAPS IFR TO KCMX THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. LOW CLOUDS APPEAR LESS LIKELY TO
FORM AT KIWD...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 30 KTS THROUGH WED. POTENTIAL FOR
A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH PRESSURE
LOWER THAN 975MB OR 29 INCHES TO LIFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. NW GALES LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WESTERLY GALES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN A
RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ006-007-012>014-085.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-009-010-084.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ005-011.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1240 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
09Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY/S SNOW IS NOW MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ALSO PULLING OUT OF THE ERN FCST
AREA AS LIGHT SNOW HAS NOW ENDED OR DIMINISHED TO LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES. AN AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS STILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY THE WRN
FCST AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP OR LIFT OUT THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH INCREASED MIXING FM WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TODAY...A COUPLE SHORTWAVES NOTED IN UPSTREAM ZONAL FLOW...ONE
NORTHERN WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO AND A
SECOND SRN WAVE MOVING EAST ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER.
THESE WAVES WILL HELP PROPEL A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH AND WEAK COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. THE WEAK SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL BRUSH
LAKE SUPERIOR. A BAND OF 285-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT BULK OF SNOW SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...FCST SNDGS AND LATEST IR
SATELLITE LOOP SUGGEST THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING AND SUNSHINE
FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR THE WRN
HALF OF THE FCST FOR THE HIGHEST TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
EVEN LOWER 40S FOR DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. COOLER
SOUTH FLOW OFF MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE MI WILL KEEP ERN HALF OF CWA
COOLER...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
TONIGHT...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE
WRN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN...AS DEEP LAYER FORCING/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE EXITS QUICKLY E OF THE FCST AREA IN THE EVENING. MAY SEE A
LITTLE BIT OF -SN/FLURRY ACTIVITY OVER THE E EARLY IN THE EVENING.
AFTER THAT...QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE MIGHT BE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES OR MORE LIKELY PATCHY -FZDZ FOR AREAS FAVORED IN WNW
UPSLOPE FLOW AS TEMP PROFILE IN LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE IS ABOVE
-10C. BEST CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE PATCHY FZDZ WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
AND FAR NE CWA. SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMER NIGHTS IN QUITE A WHILE
UNDER PACIFIC AIR MASS WITH WINDS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT
MINS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT QUIET COMPARED TO LATE
THIS WEEK. RAN WITH MENTION OF FZDZ OVR NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST CWA
EARLY WEDNESDAY WHERE ONSHORE/UPSLOPING FLOW IS FORECAST ALONG WITH
MOISTURE TO H9 AND EVEN SOME LIFT WITHIN THAT MOIST LAYER. SPEED
SHEAR ALSO THERE WHICH CAN SOMETIMES ENHANCE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. AFTER
LOW CLOUDS GET OUT OF THE WAY BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...NUDGED TEMPS UP
IN THE AFTN WITH READINGS OVER INTERIOR WEST AND SCNTRL POSSIBLY
CRACKING 40 DEGREES AS GEM GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR A FEW DAYS NOW.
FORECAST GETS VERY INTERESTING BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
NO DOUBT ABOUT IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO LATCH ON TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A VERY MAJOR AND HIGH IMPACT STORM ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AND THIS IS JUST THE WINTER SIDE TO
THIS SYSTEM. SEVERE WEATHER...MAYBE EVEN FORM OF A LARGER SCALE
SQUALL LINE...COULD AFFECT OHIO VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MAYBE
AS FAR NORTH AS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
ON THAT FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES AS FAR NORTH
AS UPPER GREAT LAKES ON NOSE OF DRY SLOT WORKING THROUGH LATER
THURSDAY. SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK DOES HAVE EASTERN HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN IN
GENERAL THUNDER PROBS.
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN MSLP/THERMAL FIELDS THE LAST FEW RUNS
FROM THE MAIN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH IS
IMPRESSIVE. ENTHUSIASM AND CONFIDENCE IN MODEL AGREEMENT IS TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT THOUGH AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE THAT WILL HELP DEVELOP THE
STRONG SFC LOW IS STILL OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING AND THE
FORECAST STRONG DEEPENING OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WITH IT
ARE DIRECTLY DEPENDANT ON PHASING OF SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WITH
INITIAL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH. THIS IS ALWAYS A TRICKY
PROPOSITION. PROBABLY WILL SEE SOME SHIFTING AROUND IN TERMS OF
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF LOW AND WARM LAYER ALOFT. IF IT ALL COMES TO
FRUITION AS MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE THOUGH...SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM
WOULD IMPACT UPR MICHIGAN. WOULD ALSO BE ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT PER
1000-850/850-700MB THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS FOR SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTH AND EAST CWA...MAINLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
DEGREE OF ICING IS UNCERTAIN...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON TREATMENT OF
ROADS AND ALSO TIMING OF SWITCH OVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN. WPC WWD GRAPHICS
INDICATE SNOW AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY OF 8-10 INCHES TAPERING TO 4-6 INCHES OVER EASTERN CWA ALONG
WITH ICE AMOUNTS THERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
IMPACT TOWARD THE END OF THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW WOULD BE A FULL
FLEDGED BLIZZARD ALONG EXPOSED SHORELINE OF WESTERN LK SUPERIOR
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. FORECAST SUB 970MB LOW TO NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR AT 12Z
FRIDAY WITH WEST WINDS AT H85 OF 45 KTS AND SUFFICIENT MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AT H85-H7 WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -12C WOULD BE BAD
ENOUGH ON ITS OWN. ADD FACT THAT WESTERN LK SUPERIOR IS COVERED WITH
ICE AND THERE WILL BE ONGOING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IT CERTAINLY SEEMS THERE ARE THE MAKINGS OF
WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE U.P. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WOULD BE IMPACTED BY CONSIDERABLE BLSN DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE SFC
LOW. WORST CONDITIONS WOULD BE ON THE KEWEENAW THOUGH. SYSTEM REALLY
BEARS WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUCH HIGH IMPACTS FROM THE
SNOW...ICE...AND WIND. IF THIS SYSTEM ENDS UP AS FORECAST RIGHT
NOW...A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. WILL START OUT HIGHLIGHTING IT THIS
MORNING BY ISSUING AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. ALSO WILL KEEP
MENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
REST OF EXTENDED...KEPT WITH MONDAY DAYSHIFT THINKING OF SMALL CHANCE
POPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR FOR WNW/W FLOW AREAS AS TEMPS ARE SUFFICIENTLY
COLD FOR LAKE EFFECT RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOT OF ICE ON LK
SUPERIOR BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH OPEN WATER APPEARS
AFTER THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. AWAY FM ANY LAKE
EFFECT...THE RETURNING COLD WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH READINGS
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE TEENS. BEYOND THE EXTENDED...COLD
REGIME LOOKS TO REASSERT ITSELF AS WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TIED TO THE
PERSISTENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN REAPPEARS. 00Z ECMWF BACKED OFF SOME
BUT STILL LOOKS QUITE COLD BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN
NEAR -28C. PROBABLY WILL BE DEALING WITH A RETURN OF WIND CHILL ISSUES
BY THAT TIME. MORAL OF THE STORY...ENJOY BRIEF RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS
AS BY THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND THEY WILL BE JUST A DISTANT MEMORY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
PERSISTENT STRATUS AFFECTING KSAW WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS IS GRADUALLY
ERODING FROM THE EDGES. EXPECT A TREND TO VFR IN THE NEXT HR.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STRATUS IS QUICKLY ADVECTING N UP LAKE MICHIGAN
AND MAY BRING LOW MVFR CIGS TO KSAW LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING. PASSAGE
OF SFC TROF AND WIND SHIFT TO A DOWNSLOPE W DIRECTION WILL BRING A
RETURN OF VFR LATE EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT. TO THE W...KIWD/KCMX
WILL REMAIN VFR THIS AFTN. AXIS OF HIGH DWPTS ACCOMPANYING A WIND
SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE W DIRECTION MAY BRING STRATUS/LOW MVFR CIG OR
PERHAPS IFR TO KCMX THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. LOW CLOUDS APPEAR LESS LIKELY TO
FORM AT KIWD...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 30 KTS THROUGH WED. POTENTIAL FOR
A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH PRESSURE
LOWER THAN 975MB OR 29 INCHES TO LIFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. NW GALES LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WESTERLY GALES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN A
RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS IF THIS SYSTEM TRENDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
534 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 534 PM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. DID OPT TO CUT BACK ON POPS RATHER QUICKLY THIS
EVENING PER LATEST RAP PROGS WHICH APPEARS TO BE HANDLING CURRENT
SITUATION QUITE WELL BASED OFF RECENT RADAR TRENDS. THUS EXPECT
MOST SNOWFALL TO BE OVER IN MOST AREAS BY 8 PM IF NOT SOONER IN
THE CASE OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES STILL HOLDING IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S IN MOST SPOTS AS OF THE 5 PM HOUR WITH ONLY A
SMALL DOWNWARD TREND OVERNIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED S/SW FLOW AND AT
LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER HERE AND THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THRU 23-00Z ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MVG ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AT 2030Z. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER 1-2" ACROSS NRN VT AND
NRN NY BEFORE ENDING. ATLANTIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY
LOW SPINNING UP ACROSS RI AND SERN MA NOT REALLY BEING TAPPED AT
THE MOMENT. THAT SAID...POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME
MOISTURE/UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT ALLOWING FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS OF 3-6". ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST SNOW
TOTALS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM LUDLOW TO
BETHEL AND ACROSS THE SUMMITS. MAINTAINED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE THRU 02Z. SNOW COVERED ROADS AREAWIDE AND
PERIODS OF 1/2 MILE VSBY WILL MAKE FOR SOME TRAVEL SLOWDOWNS
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE...WITH SOMEWHAT WORSE CONDITIONS ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND NARROW SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO NRN
NY BY 03Z AND ACROSS VT BY 06Z. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
AND QUICK END TO ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS EVENING. KEPT SOME CHANCE
POPS ACROSS FAR ERN VT THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. NAM/RAP MODEL RH
PROFILES SUGGEST SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS.
WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING...LOWS SHOULD DRO
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 PM EST TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS. NEXT FAST-MOVING
TROUGH...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN THRU
THE NORTH COUNTRY BETWEEN 18-00Z. PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL UVV
TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY MIDDAY THRU LATE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. LOOKING FOR SUB-ADVISORY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY
1-3"...HIGHEST AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WHERE SOME LOCAL
SHADOWING EFFECTS APPEAR LIKELY). TROUGH PASSAGE AFTER 00Z SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE SNOWFALL BY LATE EVENING FOR MOST SECTIONS.
ALSO...AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY. DESPITE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY REACH THE 33-37F. ABOVE FREEZING NEAR- SURFACE LAYER IS
MARGINAL FOR ANY VALLEY RAIN...WITH ABOVE FREEZING DEPTH GENERALLY
800-900 FT. WILL KEEP AS GENERALLY SNOW...BUT MAY SEE SOMEWHAT
LOWER VALLEY ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO WARMER SFC
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON PAVEMENT.
NEXT MOBILE SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 20S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED QUIET FOR THURSDAY. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A DEVELOPING LIGHT (5-10 MPH) RETURN FLOW.
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BASED ON SOME HIGHER MID-UPR
LEVEL RH ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z
FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 37-42F RANGE FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS THURSDAY AFTN.
STRONGER/HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTS IN RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION (976MB PER 12Z GFS AT 06Z FRIDAY). STRONG SLY
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 60KT AT 850MB BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY ACROSS NRN NY AND EWD INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
STRONG WARM FRONTAL ASCENT WILL BRING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. A BIT OF
ELEVATED CAPE ALSO PRESENT IN NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND 10-12Z
FRIDAY...SO MAY SEE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH HVY
PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 60-80 POPS AFTER 06Z. ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPS LIKELY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS
BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT TEMPS ELSEWHERE WILL BE BELOW FREEZING
NEAR THE SFC WITH FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR A PERIOD OF SLEET AND
POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. THIS MAY HAVE SOME TRAVEL IMPACT DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HRS INTO THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE FCST GRIDS. ALSO LOOKING AT LOCALLY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...WITH SOUTH GUSTS 25-35 MPH...PERHAPS A BIT
STRONGER RIGHT ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST TUESDAY...A CHANGEABLE WX PATTERN UPCOMING FROM
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY
TO A DEEP TROF AND ARCTIC AIR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FCST CHALLENGE
ON FRIDAY WL BE PTYPE...WINDS...AND TEMPS...FOLLOWED BY TIMING OF
COOLING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
MAGNITUDE OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF NEXT WEEK AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA
ACRS OUR CWA.
BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW VERY STRONG 925MB TO 850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 65
KNOTS ON FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WL RESULT IN STRONG LOCALIZED SE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WL QUICKLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS FROPA OCCURS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
HRS...WITH STRONGEST PRES RISE COUPLET ACRS THE SLV. THINKING THIS
WL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACRS THE SLV/DACKS BTWN 30 AND 40
KNOTS ON FRIDAY MIDDAY.
ALL MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP COMING IN TWO SEPARATE WAVES...FIRST
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY FROPA
PRECIP BTWN 12Z AND 21Z FRIDAY. THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRNT WL BE A 2 TO 5 HR PRECIP EVENT WITH GENERAL QPF BTWN
0.25 AND 0.50" ACRS OUR CWA. EXPECTING SFC TEMPS TO BE MAINLY
ABOVE FREEZING WITH SFC FRNT...RESULTING IN RAIN...BUT SOME
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...INCLUDING THE NEK ON FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 6C AND 8C PRIOR TO FROPA...SUGGESTING TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 40S...WITH EVEN A FEW L50S POSSIBLE AROUND RUTLAND AND IN
THE CANTON/POTSDAM AREAS ON FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS ACRS THE HIGHER
TRRN WL COOL QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AFTN...WITH STRONG 85H CAA
DEVELOPING ON GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...TEMPS WL SLOWLY RETURN TO BLW NORMAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF REDEVELOPS ACRS OUR CWA. GIVEN
SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT ON SATURDAY AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -4C AND
-6C...TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S WARMER VALLEYS AND MID 30S
MTNS/NEK. WARMEST TEMPS WL BE AROUND VSF DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING
ON WESTERLY FLW. SECONDARY COLD FRNT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...WITH
LATEST GFS SHOWING A RIBBON OF ENHANCED FGEN FORCING ALONG WITH
DEEPER 850 TO 500MB RH. HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL QPF/SNOWFALL WL BE LIGHT. ADDITIONAL S/W
ENERGY AND ANOTHER FRNT PUSHES ACRS OUR CWA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER TEMPS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -20C BY 12Z MONDAY OFF BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF...SUPPORTING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS MTNS TO L/M 20S VALLEYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC FOR MAINLY MTN SNOW SHOWERS. THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC
SHOWS BLW NORMAL TEMPS AND PRECIP. AS ALWAYS THE DEPTH AND
POSITION OF THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF AXIS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY...ALONG WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR NEXT WEEK AND DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRES ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...SHORT TERM AVIATION FOCUS WL BE ON IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW LIFTING
ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. CRNT RADAR AND OBS SHOW VIS BTWN
1/2SM AND 3SM IN THIS BAND OF SNOW...WHICH WL CONT TO IMPACT OUR
TAF SITES THRU 22Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE DISSIPATING.
ALSO...EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS AT SLK/MSS TO DEVELOP WITH BASES BTWN
600 AND 900 FEET THIS AFTN...THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN BTWN 02Z AND 06Z
THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WL DISSIPATE
AS HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES THIS AFTN AND GENERALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
AT MSS. SNOW WL QUICKLY END BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 04Z...WITH EXCEPT OF LINGERING MVFR AT
SLK/MSS/MPV. NEXT WARM FRNT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY APPROACHES
OUR TAF SITES BY 16Z WEDS.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/LIFT WL PRODUCE A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW BTWN 18Z WEDS AND 00Z THURS WITH MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT MPV/SLK/MSS. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM 00Z THURS INTO 00Z FRIDAY. NEXT WARM FRNT
WITH BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE MIXED PRECIP ARRIVES AFT 06Z
FRIDAY UNTIL 15Z FRIDAY WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...AND SOME ICING
POSSIBLE AT MPV/MSS. ALSO...LLVL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AFT 06Z
FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TO 850MB JET OF 45 TO 65 KNOTS AND
LIMITED MIXING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND
FROPA AFT 18Z FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...FROPA WL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
BRIEF 1 TO 3 HR WINDOW OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE DRIER AND BREEZY WINDS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WITH
SOME LEFTOVER MTN SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
DAMAGED EQUIPMENT HAS RESULTED IN AN AUDIBLE HUM ON THE MOUNT
ASCUTNEY NOAA WEATHER RADIO BROADCAST (WXM-44). OUR TECHNICIANS
ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM AND WILL RESOLVE THE ISSUE AS QUICKLY AS
POSSIBLE. REPAIRS MAY INVOLVE COORDINATION AND ACCESS BY
TELCO...INCLUDING PARTS ACQUISITION. THIS MAY TAKE 1-2 DAYS TO
RESOLVE. IN THE MEANTIME...WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY DIFFICULTIES IN
HEARING THE BROADCAST FROM MOUNT ASCUTNEY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ010>012-019.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
456 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST LATER TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS SYSTEM
PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MILD...PACIFIC AIR FOLLOWS IT AS WELL.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT,...BEGINNING A TREND TO COLDER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED THE PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT HAS PUSHED
WELL TO OUR EAST...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN CONTROL OF THE
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS HAVE PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AFT 06
UTC.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN END.
WITH NAM/GFS AS WELL AS WPC ALL INDICATING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE A HIGH POP...LOW QPF EVENT.
LATEST TEMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW TEMP FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE IN THE BALLPARK...SO HAVE ONLY MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS.
WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...RAIN SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER
TYPE.
INITIALLY THOUGHT SOME OF THE SHELTERED NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF
FREEZING RAIN. BUT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
EARLY...AND THEN WARM AS THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MOVE IN.
MAY BE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN...BUT IT
SHOULD NOT LAST LONG...AND BE VERY LIGHT. WITH THIS CHANGE...DO NOT
THINK THERE IS THE NEED FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPRING SPRINGS THIS PERIOD AS STRONG S FLOW AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS S/W
TROUGH / SFC COLD FRONT BRINGS A RATHER MILD THU...FOLLOWED BY THE
THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THU EVENING.
BUBBLE HIGH EXITS WED EVENING...ALLOWING STRENGTHENING FLOW FROM THE
S AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES NWD THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THU MORNING THROUGH THE DAY THU.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE POSITIVE THETA E ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO
THUNDER AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS PW VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND AN INCH AND SHOWALTERS GO TO ZERO.
WARM SECTOR BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY THU EVENING...BEFORE COLD FRONT
COMES CHARGING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. PW VALUES GET AS HIGH AS ABOUT
1.25 IN AS SFC DEW POINTS APPROACH 50 AND H85 WIND INCREASE TO 70
KTS OR BETTER. INSTABILITY AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WANES
AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THU NT BUT...GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...ANY CONVECTIVE LINE THAT GETS GOING UPSTREAM CAN MAINTAIN A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AT LEAST AS FAR E AS THE E EDGE OF THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA...WHICH CUTS N-S THROUGH HTS...WITH STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE
WELL E OF THERE. THE RUC WIND GUST MOMENTUM ALGORITHM YIELDS GUSTS
TO 40 KTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND UP TO 30 KTS OVER THE
LOWLANDS...SO IT WILL TAKE HEAVY SHOWERS...OR THUNDERSTORMS...TO
BRING THE GREATER MOMENTUM DOWN. THE HWO ALREADY CARRIES A SEVERE
THREAT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA PER PREVIOUS SHIFT.
USED GFS/NAM BLEND FOR QPF WHICH IS UP NEAR AN INCH IN THE
W...DIMINISHING TO AS LITTLE AS A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WAY TO LITTLE TO RELEASE THE SNOW PACK EVEN WITH STRONG
WINDS AND DEW POINTS ABOVE FREEZING. THE CANADIAN IS AN ODD MODEL
OUT IN NOT PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH UNTIL FRI MORNING.
IT APPEARS THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE TOO
WEAK TO COUNTER DIURNAL HEATING FRI...AS TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
TO HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL. A BUBBLE HIGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN PASSES S OF
THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON...AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER SERN
CANADA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N...WHERE THE MOMENTUM ALGORITHM PUMPS
OUT GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS.
BLENDED IN GFS-BASED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR HIGHS AND NAM12 AND THE
MET FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES BOTH NTS...OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FCST SAVE FOR TIMING OF COLDER AIR THU NT...A LITTLE
LATER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING COLD AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING A POTENTIAL ENHANCED CLIPPER
SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ON THE TIMING OF FEATURES...EVEN THOUGH ENSEMBLES SUPPORT
THE BROADER PATTERN WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST. THEREFORE...USED THE
ECMWF AND GEFS MEANS...AS CONFIDENCE WITH INDIVIDUAL ENERGY PIECES
IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
17Z SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. SW TO W WINDS PREVAILED....WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
COMMON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EXPECT WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND TURN TO THE
SOUTH.
AFTER 6Z...EXPECT PRECIPITATION AND MVFR CONDITIONS...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. COME OF
THE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN SHELTERED MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
COULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THEN EAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS AT ANY LOCATION SHOULD IMPROVE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...EXPECT WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
SW...AND THEN TURN TO THE W BY 18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND MVFR
PREVALENT CIGS MAY VARY...AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN GUSTY SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM/RPY
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1131 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A WIND
SHIFT OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LOW
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO SE OK TOMORROW AND MAY IMPACT KMLC BY LATE
MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WARMING TODAY
ALONG WITH VERY DRY PROFILES. CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WILL
NOT IMPACT TEMPS TOO MUCH...AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY AS MIXING DEPTH INCREASES. THE LARGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS DEWPOINT TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE
SPREAD AMONGST SHORT TERM DATA. THE MIXING INTO THE DEEP DRY AIR
WILL ATTEMPT TO BE OFFSET BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
EAST TX. NAM DATA SEEMS TO BE MUCH TO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
TREND...WHILE THE RAP DATA TOO PESSIMISTIC GIVEN RECENT TRENDS.
UPDATED FORECAST LOWERED AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS BUT STILL MAINTAINED
A STEADY RISE. THE RESULTANT FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS WERE PUSHED
INTO RED FLAG CRITERIA WITH THIS ADJUSTMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 74 38 68 56 / 0 0 10 20
FSM 75 42 69 57 / 0 0 10 10
MLC 73 44 70 58 / 0 0 10 10
BVO 74 32 66 52 / 0 0 10 40
FYV 70 37 65 54 / 0 0 10 20
BYV 70 38 63 51 / 0 0 10 20
MKO 74 41 68 56 / 0 0 10 20
MIO 71 35 65 54 / 0 0 10 30
F10 74 42 69 56 / 0 0 10 20
HHW 75 49 71 59 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.
AR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011.
&&
$$
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1046 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WARMING TODAY
ALONG WITH VERY DRY PROFILES. CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WILL
NOT IMPACT TEMPS TOO MUCH...AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY AS MIXING DEPTH INCREASES. THE LARGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS DEWPOINT TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE
SPREAD AMONGST SHORT TERM DATA. THE MIXING INTO THE DEEP DRY AIR
WILL ATTEMPT TO BE OFFSET BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
EAST TX. NAM DATA SEEMS TO BE MUCH TO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
TREND...WHILE THE RAP DATA TOO PESSIMISTIC GIVEN RECENT TRENDS.
UPDATED FORECAST LOWERED AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS BUT STILL MAINTAINED
A STEADY RISE. THE RESULTANT FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS WERE PUSHED
INTO RED FLAG CRITERIA WITH THIS ADJUSTMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 74 38 68 56 / 0 0 10 20
FSM 75 42 69 57 / 0 0 10 10
MLC 73 44 70 58 / 0 0 10 10
BVO 74 32 66 52 / 0 0 10 40
FYV 70 37 65 54 / 0 0 10 20
BYV 70 38 63 51 / 0 0 10 20
MKO 74 41 68 56 / 0 0 10 20
MIO 71 35 65 54 / 0 0 10 30
F10 74 42 69 56 / 0 0 10 20
HHW 75 49 71 59 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.
AR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
321 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 21Z...WATER VAPOP LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER MANITOBA AND OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NEBRASKA...RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND A POTENT
UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COASTS. THIS POTENT UPPER TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT FOR OUR THURSDAY
STORM. DPVA AND PACIFIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
HAVE BEEN SPREADING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THESE CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED SOME INSOLATION...BUT SOUTHWESTERLY
925-850MB FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
HELPED BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON.
OVER WESTERN IOWA WHERE NO SNOW EXISTS...READINGS ARE IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...READINGS ARE STILL IN THE
30S AND 40S...PARTIALLY DUE TO A BIT MORE SUN AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW
OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE QUIET BEFORE THE STORM PHRASE WORKS PERFECTLY FOR THE SHORT
TERM. 18.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICT THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES MARCHING EASTWARD TO ABOUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
THU...PUSHED BY THE POTENT NORTHEAST PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
PLOWING INTO THE ROCKIES. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AT 500MB SUGGESTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL COME
THROUGH DRY WITH BASICALLY NO CLOUD.
ONLY REAL ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT IS IF ANY FOG CAN FORM
RESULTING FROM MELTING SNOW. ALL MODELS KEEP A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ONLY REACHING
WESTERN MN BY 12Z WED. 925MB WINDS STAY UP 20-30 KT FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
THUS...THINK ANY FOG WOULD BE LIMITED TO PERHAPS THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS AND SOME SMALL VALLEYS.
PLENTY OF SUN LOOKS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME CLOUDS
INCREASING LATE AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 0-
2C RANGE AT 18Z WED SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 30S TO A COUPLE
40S...WARMEST IN SOUTHWEST WI.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
...WINTER STORM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
MANY FACETS OF THE STORM TO TALK ABOUT...
MODEL ANALYSIS...18.12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE PAST COUPLE
OF CYCLES...PHASING TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES ON TOP OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THE PHASED UPPER TROUGH ALSO BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TITLED AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. OVERALL...THE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FROM 500MB TO THE SURFACE
IS FAIRLY LOW CONSIDERING THIS IS A PHASING TROUGH AND STILL ISNT
ONSHORE YET. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A HIGH IMPACT
WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT AS THE PHASING
TAKES PLACE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW IS GOING TO
UNDERGO BOMBOGENESIS...DROPPING FROM A PRESSURE OF 995MB IN EASTERN
KS AT 12Z THU TO AROUND 970MB OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT 12Z FRI. TO
HANDLE THIS PRESSURE DROP AND THE COLD AIR THAT GETS PULLED
IN...925MB WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 30-50 KT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM FOR THURSDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST CORE
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IOWA...THE FAVORABLE
BLIZZARD AREA.
PRECIPITATION...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS. GFS/NAM/ECMWF SOUNDINGS DEPICT A DECENT DRY LAYER BETWEEN
900-700MB WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT FROM WARM
ADVECTION IN THAT LAYER VERSUS IN THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE IT.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAND A MUCH BETTER CHANCE MOVING IN
THURSDAY...LIKELY SOUTH TO NORTH...AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN WI. DURING THE AFTERNOON...FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS REALLY INTENSIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...
WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP A STRONG AND HEAVY PRECIPITATING COLD CONVEYOR
BELT. PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED BETWEEN 0.5-0.75 INCHES OR 200-250
PERCENT OF NORMAL SUGGESTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE
FORCING TO PRODUCE FAIRLY HEAVY QPF. CROSS-SECTIONS EVEN SHOW A
LARGE AREA OF NEGATIVE EPV AND SOME WEAK CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON...
SUGGESTING THUNDER COULD OCCUR. WILL SEE IF THIS TRENDS HOLDS WITH
LATER MODELS. COLD CONVEYOR BELT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE U.P.
OF MI THU NIGHT...GRADUALLY ENDING PRECIPITATION SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION TYPE...A DRY WARM LAYER ALOFT SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...THAT COULD FALL AS EITHER
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN UNTIL EVAPORATIVE COOLING SWITCHES IT
OVER TO SNOW. THE AFTERNOON IS TRICKY AND COMPLETELY DEPENDS ON THE
850MB LOW TRACK. AHEAD OF THE 850MB LOW...A WARM LAYER ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE WILL ADVECT NORTH...RESULTING IN A MIX OR COMPLETELY
SWITCHOVER TO RAIN. RIGHT NOW THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE TO OCCUR IN
FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 15-21Z THU. IF THE
LOW TRACKS FARTHER NORTHWEST LIKE THE 18.12Z UKMET...THEN RAIN COULD
FALL EVEN AT LA CROSSE. HOWEVER...THE UKMET IS A NORTHWEST OUTLIER.
SNOW AMOUNTS/ICE ACCUMULATION...ANY ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE INITIAL WARM LAYER. EVEN SNOW AMOUNTS
REALLY DO NOT START TO PICK UP UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO DEVELOP. DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF CONVECTION FORMS. PRESENTLY DEPICT 2 TO 10 INCHES FOR
TOTALS...HIGHEST IN NORTH CENTRAL WI WHERE THE LONGEST DURATION OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED. IMPORTANT...THESE AMOUNTS ARE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE...AS EVEN THE NEW 18.18Z NAM SUGGESTS OF A FOOT IN SOUTHEAST
MN.
...REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...
AFTER THE WINTER STORM...THE WEATHER GETS QUIET. 18.12Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND ENSEMBLE DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FORMING AN
OMEGA BLOCK FROM THE U.S. WEST COAST INTO ALASKA...RESULTING IN DEEP
TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR A GRADUAL COOLING TREND FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...AND ACCORDING TO THE CFS WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MONTH. WIND CHILLS THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK TO STAY JUST ABOVE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...I.E. -20 F. DESPITE THE COOLING
TREND...THERE ARE NOT THAT MANY PRECIPITATING SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.
LOOKING OUT TO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
COULD ALSO GET CLIPPED BY A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014
GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THRU AT LEAST WED
MORNING. VALLEY INVERSIONS HAVE LIFTED/BROKEN WITH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA MOSTLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S AS OF 17Z. WITH DEEPER
MIXING...VSBYS ACROSS THE AREA ARE 10SM...AND LOOK TO REMAIN SO THRU
TONIGHT/WED MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...AROUND 21Z AT KRST AND 00Z
AT KLSE. SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...SO CLOUDS THRU TONIGHT/WED EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE 15K FT. ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND ACROSS MN/IA/WI TONIGHT FOR NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 8-12KT
RANGE...ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HZ/BR TO A
MINIMUM AT BOTH VALLEY AND HIGHER ELEVATION SITES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ079-088-096.
IA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR IAZ011-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RRS