Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/16/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1055 AM PST Fri Feb 14 2014
.Synopsis...
Unsettled weather is expected into next week. A fetch of Pacific
moisture will bring light rain to far northern California today
and clouds elsewhere. More widespread precipitation is expected
to spread south later Saturday bringing light rain to the valley
and a quick burst of snow with gusty winds to the Sierra. A
colder storm is possible next week.
&&
.Discussion...
A Pacific moisture plume of around 1.25" per latest blended total
PWAT product remains mostly north of our forecast area today.
Models hold it in the same area next 12 hours, if not shifting
slightly northward, so not expecting much measurable precip for
our area. Aircraft soundings and recent RUC soundings show a very
dry layer below 500mb which isn`t helping. Can`t rule out a few
drops from around Redding north today and tonight, but no
appreciable amounts expected.
The temperature forecast will be tricky today. Current low
stratus deck in the Valley is still expected to break up by this
afternoon, and with only thin cloud layers aloft, sun breaks could
help Valley locations from around Sac southward to mix out and
realize some of the very warm temps aloft. On the other hand, NAM
850mb temps are cooling from the north this afternoon. Have gone
with the consensus of the bias-corrected models south of Sac
where the warmest temps are expected (low 70s) and trended toward
cooler non-bc consensus from around Red Bluff northward.
No major changes needed to the previous forecast from tonight on.
Still looking at a quick shot of rain and snow late Saturday and
early Sunday with gusty winds at high elevations. Models are trending
towards a quick exit Sunday, so it appears the only travel impacts
would be Saturday night. -DVC
.Previous Discussion...Issued 4AM PST
A very mild and moist airmass remains over interior NorCal early
this morning. Abundant mid and high clouds continue to move in
from the west and southwest. The boundary layer is nearly
saturated with many observing sites reporting dewpoints close to
the temperature. A few isolated patches of fog have been reported
overnight in the valley, but the abundant cloud cover has
prevented the fog from becoming extensive. Mild temperatures early
this morning generally in the lower to mid 50s in the valley and
in the 30s and 40s in the mountains.
Broad upper ridge along the west coast is amplifying a bit today
as the upstream trough digs along 160W. This change has shifted
the moisture plume and most precip back to the north across far
northern California where it will likely remain through tonight.
However, while much of the region will remain dry into Saturday,
plenty of clouds will continue to stream up from the southwest
resulting in mostly cloudy skies. Most of the valley is expected
to warm up into the 60s to lower 70s today and overnight lows
tonight will once again be mild.
Approach of the upper trough will shift the moisture plume and
frontal zone southward through interior NorCal on Saturday night
into Sunday sending precip southward along with lowering snow
levels and breezy/windy conditions. This will be a quick moving
system compared to the one last weekend and QPF will be lighter -
around a quarter inch or less in the valley, up to an inch and a
half in the northern Sierra and one to three inches across the
northern mountains. Accumulating snowfall will mostly be limited
to elevations above 6500 feet where 4 to 8 inches will be possible
along the northern Sierra crest later Saturday night into Sunday
morning.
Precip clears out quickly Sunday as the trough exits the area and
short-wave ridging moves overhead.
&&
.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)
Mid range models in good agreement on cool Pacific frontal system
progged to move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California
during the day on Tuesday. GFS still somewhat drier with this
system than the ECMWF but timing and position are similar. Snow
levels with this system will be a bit lower than the system moving
through over the weekend and are expected to continue to lower as
subsequent Gulf of Alaska systems drop into the region. Models
currently have a bit of a break between systems going for
Wednesday but timing this far out is far from exact especially for
the northern portions of the CWA so kept in chance category for
the northern zones and slight chance farther south. A cold low
dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to bring another
round of precipitation to the entire CWA Thursday. Models vary more
with this system with the Canadian model even keeping precipitation
north of the CWA. Have gone with the GFS/ECMWF solution which are
more consistant with each other and with recent system trends.
This system which will contain more polar air will come with much
lower snow levels. Shasta county will start out with snow levels
dropping below 3000 feet. A more northerly upper flow on Friday
will bring in even colder air with snow levels predicted below
3000 feet for the entire forecast area. Models back in good
agreement next Friday going into next weekend in building a fairly
substantial ridge of high pressure over the west coast so any
precipitation Friday is likely to be very limited.
&&
.Aviation...
Weak Pacific frontal system riding over west coast ridge will
bring isolated light rain north of about KOVE next 24 hours with
low cigs bringing local IFR conditions. Morning BR over the
northern San Joaquin valleys with local mFR conditions through
about 20z this morning. Otherwise mainly VFR. South to southeast
winds 5 to 15 kt for the Valley today, wit local gusts up to
around 22 kt for the northern Sacramento Valley this afternoon.
Local gusts to 50 knots over the highest Sierra peaks. EK
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
902 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY FOR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY EVENING BUT COOL AND
DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION. A
MILDER AND UNSETTLED PERIOD IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
***MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT***
***DANGEROUS BLIZZARD WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/POWER OUTAGES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MA COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
TRAVEL IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED***
9 PM UPDATE...
HEAVY SNOW BAND TAKING SHAPE ACROSS FAR SE MA...PRIMARILY ACROSS
PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO THE UPPER CAPE. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AT 700
MB SHOWS THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AND PACKING OF ISOTHERMS ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS FAR SE MA. NAM MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND SNOW GROWTH OMEGA IS HANDLING THIS BAND VERY
WELL AND KEEP THIS BANDING SIGNAL IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY BEFORE
IT MOVES EAST 03-06Z. MAX SNOWFALL 12-18" WILL BE ACROSS PLYMOUTH
COUNTY TO THE UPPER CAPE...WITH GENERALLY 8-12" ACROSS REST OF SE
MA.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS UPDATE IS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
HEAVY SNOWFALL. NAM SHOWING A FAIRLY SHARP CUT OFF TO THE MID
LEVEL FGEN AND SNOW GROWTH OMEGA ALONG AND WEST OF THE I95
CORRIDOR SO EXPECT AMOUNTS TO DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY WEST OF
I95. AS THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW MOVES NE FROM THE BENCHMARK WE
DO EXPECT SOME HEAVIER SNOW OVER THE OCEAN TO PIVOT BACK INTO NE
MA INCLUDING BOS AND THE NORTH SHORE AS BANDING BECOMES MORE N-S
ORIENTED. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT HRRR MODEL DEPICTION OF
HEAVIER SNOW BACKING INTO NE MA.
WE TIGHTENED THE SNOWFALL GRADIENT ALONG I-95 DECREASING AMOUNTS
ALONG AND TO THE WEST WITH UP TO 8 INCHES I-95 AND 6 INCHES JUST
TO THE WEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINDS...
THE LOW RAPIDLY UNDER GOING BOMBOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...TREMENDOUS
TRANSFER SHOULD YIELD DAMAGING 60 TO 70 MPH GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAPE/NANTUCKET.
IMPACTS...
THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY HEAVY
SNOW WITH SOME OF WHICH WILL BE VERY WET ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST...WILL COMBINE WITH THE DAMAGING WINDS. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN A LOT OF DOWNED TREES AND SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES. TRAVEL ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BECOME ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE...AS DOWNED TREES MAY BLOCK ROADWAYS. IN
ADDITION...SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR FOR A TIME WILL
MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR PLOWS TO KEEP UP. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE AND DANGEROUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
STRONG COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BOMB OUT INTO THE MARITIMES ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING BEFORE DECREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE BELOW -8C SO TEMPS WILL BE
STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS WELL AS IN
THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MORE OF A DUSTING WITH WORST CAST SCENARIO
BEING AN INCH OR TWO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT BY 09Z
AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AFTERWARDS. HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN UP
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT. YET WITH THE
STRONG CAA...AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -14 TO -16C EXPECT TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. CERTAIN REGIONS
FLIRT WITH WIND CHILL ADV...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY
* POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW ON TUESDAY
* WED THROUGH SAT...SEVERAL WEAK WAVES THROUGH A ZONAL
FLOW...WARMER PATTERN.
MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
OVERALL HAVE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MEDIUM
AND LONG TERM. ALTHOUGH THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON A WARMER
TREND BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWERS HIGH
PRESSURE ON MONDAY BEFORE DIVERGING IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
TUESDAY. AFTERWARDS THE FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND ALLOWING ANY SORT OF
WAVE TO RIDE THROUGH ALLOWING FOR A WETTER YET WARMER PATTERN.
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS PREV AND HPC YET WITH THE TUESDAY
SYSTEM BLENDED MORE OF THE EC INTO THE FORECAST. THE LATEST 12Z RUN
OF THE EC DEVELOPS MORE OF A COASTAL LOW FOR THE REGION IN
ALIGNMENT WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN. ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE FAN OF THE
CANADIAN...NOTICED THAT SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ARE ALSO SHOWING
A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING FOR A
POTENTIAL SYSTEM.
DETAILS...
MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AT 850MB WILL YIELD TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NICE LITTLE BREAK IN THE BUSY
WEATHER WEEK. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE STRONG CAA...TEMPS WILL STILL
BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING.
MODELS INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES SO SOME DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL AS SOME GUSTY WINDS.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
TRENDED THIS FORECAST TO THE EC AND GEM. MODELS BRING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE BENCHMARK TRYING TO MAKE THE FLOW MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN SEEN BY SEVERAL PREVIOUS
STORMS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. BUT FOR
NOW...THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE COLUMN AS WELL
AS THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DESCENT AMOUNT OF
LIFT AS WELL. BELIEVE THAT SNOW WILL OVER SPREAD THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY BEFORE DEPARTING THE AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL THE QUESTION OF
TIMING...APPEARS THAT THE MORNING COMMUTE OUT WEST AND THE EVENING
COMMUTE OUT EAST WILL BE IMPACTED. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY AND THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT ITS TRACK...RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLE ADVISORY SNOW OUT FOR THE INTERIOR. STAY
TUNED FOR MORE UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
A FEW WEAK WAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION WITH A POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH TIMING OF PRECIP IS STILL IN QUESTION IS APPEARS THAT A
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.
850MB TEMPS JUMP TO 4C ON WED ALLOWING TEMPS INTO THE 40S. QUICK
SHORTWAVE ON WED PM MAP ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPS ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE DROP. HOWEVER ON THURSDAY...850MB TEMPS WARM UP
TO ABOUT 0C. SURFACE TEMPS WILL STILL REACH INTO THE 40S AS
FORECASTER ANTICIPATES DIURNAL HEATING DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN THE COLUMN. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS WARMING TREND WITH THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND. IT COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
ON FRIDAY WILL WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 40S BUT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE AT THE
ONSET RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX AS YOU GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH ONCE MODELS ARE IN MORE OF AN
AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH LATE EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 60 KNOTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.
CIGS/VSBYS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM 4Z TO 8Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
HOWEVER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COAST.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOD/HEAVY SNOW AND LIFR
CONDITIONS THOUGH MIDNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVE THEREAFTER BUT
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE SNOW THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING. VSBYS IMPROVE AFTER 4Z BUT WINDS REMAIN GUSTY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT GUSTING WINDS TO 25 KTS IN THE MORNING
DECREASING INTO THE EVENING TO 15 KTS. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TO VFR.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...THEN CONDITIONS LOWER
TO MVFR-IFR ACROSS THE REGION IN CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW. PRECIP MAY
MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN TUE AFTERNOON ALONG THE S COAST BEFORE
ENDING TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MOVING W-E DURING
WED NIGHT. MAY SEE MIXED PRECIP CHANGING TO RAIN. VFR ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE UNDER GOING BOMBOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN POWERFUL NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE
EVENING WEARS ON. WINDS GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 45 KNOTS IN OUR
WESTERN SOUNDS...TO 60 KNOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
GALE AND STORM WARNINGS ARE POSTED. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD HIGHER
THAN WNA GUIDANCE AS WE SHOULD SEE THEM EXCEED 20 FEET FOR A TIME
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS IS A DANGEROUS
AND LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS...WHO SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
RETURNED TO PORT.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT NW WIND GUSTS TO 30-40 KT AND SEAS ABOVE 12FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS EARLY SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY BUT
REMAINING AT GALE FORCE THROUGH SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
WATERS. EXPECT GUSTS TO DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY SUN
EVENING WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAINING ABOVE 5 FT.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS GUSTING TO GALES ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE LATE TUESDAY DUE TO ANOTHER APPROACHING COASTAL LOW. HAVE
INCREASED WAVES AS GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING THIS UP. .
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCA WILL
STILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT
IN A STORM SURGE OF 3-4 FT IN PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY WITH SEAS 10-
12 FT TONIGHT. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE HIGH TIDE AROUND MIDNIGHT
RESULTING IN AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE COAST OF CAPE
COD FACING CAPE COD BAY. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
NANTUCKET HARBOR AND PROVINCETOWN HARBOR. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS.
ALSO...DECIDED TO INCLUDE CAPE ANN IN THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
GIVEN THE FACT THEY ARE A BIT EXPOSED MAY SEE SOME VERY MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THEIR MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ002-
003.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ005-006-
012>017-020.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ007-018-019-
021>024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ007-022-
024.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NHZ012-
015.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-
254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1242 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE LOW ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK.
MAIN STORY WILL BE WINDS...STRONG NW-W WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
35-45 MPH WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND.
STRATO-CU ACROSS SE CT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH SCT AFT INSTABILITY
CU...EXCEPT A PERIOD OF BKN INSTABILITY CU ACROSS NW INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
WITH THE AREA BETWEEN STORMS AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING PASSING
OHD...TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSE TO AVG...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A
LITTLE SNOW MELT. MID TO UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
CITY/COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND THEN CROSSING THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
MAINLY VIA THE RR QUAD OF A 100+ KT H3 JET OVER THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND...AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON
DEEP LAYER SW FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT
FROM NYC ON WEST. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM BELOW IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION...
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POPS INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING OVER OR NEAR THE 40/70
BENCHMARK BY SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW EVERYWHERE...HOWEVER A BRIEF CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING
ON JUST HOW CLOSE THE LOW PASSES TO LONG ISLAND.
THE MODELS KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION OFF SHORE WITH QPF VALUES
BETWEEN ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. BASED ON SNOWFALL RATIOS
AND TEMPERATURES...THIS WOULD BRING THE REGION ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL.
IN ADDITION...THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS
THE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. MOST MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST OF THE
PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z GFS. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST STARTS TO BUILD IN.
YET ANOTHER BUT WEAKER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SUNDAY. THIS
IS MORE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS TIME...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN JET STREAM STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THIS SCENARIO
WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF SNOW EXPECTED IF ANY AT ALL. POPS
FOR THIS EVENT ARE ONLY AT SLIGHT CHANCE. THE MORE DOMINANT FEATURE
WILL BE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE AROUND 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS. THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THIS IS OF RATHER LOW
AMPLITUDE BUT IS DEPICTED STRONGER WITH THE ECMWF. THE POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT WILL CREATE ENHANCED LIFT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...ADDING TO THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
IS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PARENT LOW IS FURTHER NORTH IN THIS CASE SO
THIS WILL PRESENT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT BUT ENOUGH WARMING ON A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO END AS RAIN.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER DRY BUT GRADUALLY MODERATING PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT IS QUASI-ZONAL AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH A BRIEF
RETURN OF RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE. THE LESS MERIDIONAL AND MORE ZONAL
FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE OVERALL MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NORTH AND WEST WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING...LEFT AS SLIGHT CHANCE. BOTH SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE MODERATING AIR MASS...THIS IS CONVEYING MORE
OF A RAIN EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. ANY LINGERING BKN-OVC 3000 FT CIGS WILL
BREAK UP BY 19-20Z.
WEST WINDS 20-30G30-40KT THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT BY 05Z...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THEREAFTER.
NE FLOW AROUND 10 KT DEVELOPS SATURDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CONDS SATURDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
***LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A HIGH-IMPACT EVENT ON SATURDAY***
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...IFR CONDS IN MODERATE SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF OVER 1" PER HOUR POSSIBLE. SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS 15-20G20-30KT
FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
.SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDS IN LIGHT SNOW.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY.
.WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WESTERLY GALES CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY. GUSTS ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS COULD APPROACH STORM FORCE
THIS MORNING. GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS TODAY...AND
INTO THE EVENING ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS.
OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN STEADY AT 15 TO 17 FT OUT EAST...AND WILL
ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT EXPECTED ON ERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE LOW PULLING VERY FAR AWAY FURTHER INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MAKE THIS GRADIENT MORE DIFFUSE.
HOWEVER...SEAS ABOVE 5 FT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS.
SCA CONDS EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT LOW AS IT DEEPENS SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND GALES MAY
BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN ONCE AGAIN. SCA GUSTS SHOULD THEN LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEKEND FOR MOST WATERS. THEN
SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A RETURN TO SCA
CONDITIONS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPE OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FELL WITH THE DEPARTING STORM. EXPECT
AROUND 1-3 TENTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WITH THE LOW
ON SAT...AS WELL AS 0.1 TO 0.3 INCH LIQUID MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 12 FT AT THE OCEAN FACING SHORELINES...AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.
DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081-
178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
959 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE LOW ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK.
MAIN STORY WILL BE WINDS...STRONG NW-W WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
35-45 MPH WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND.
STRATO-CU ACROSS SE CT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH SCT AFT INSTABILITY
CU...EXCEPT A PERIOD OF BKN INSTABILITY CU ACROSS NW INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
WITH THE AREA BETWEEN STORMS AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING PASSING OHD...TEMPS
WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSE TO AVG...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A LITTLE SNOW
MELT. MID TO UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CITY/COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND THEN CROSSING THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
MAINLY VIA THE RR QUAD OF A 100+ KT H3 JET OVER THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND...AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON
DEEP LAYER SW FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT
FROM NYC ON WEST. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM BELOW IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION...
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POPS INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING OVER OR NEAR THE 40/70
BENCHMARK BY SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW EVERYWHERE...HOWEVER A BRIEF CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING
ON JUST HOW CLOSE THE LOW PASSES TO LONG ISLAND.
THE MODELS KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION OFF SHORE WITH QPF VALUES
BETWEEN ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. BASED ON SNOWFALL RATIOS
AND TEMPERATURES...THIS WOULD BRING THE REGION ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL.
IN ADDITION...THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS
THE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. MOST MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST OF THE
PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z GFS. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST STARTS TO BUILD IN.
YET ANOTHER BUT WEAKER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SUNDAY. THIS
IS MORE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS TIME...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN JET STREAM STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THIS SCENARIO
WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF SNOW EXPECTED IF ANY AT ALL. POPS
FOR THIS EVENT ARE ONLY AT SLIGHT CHANCE. THE MORE DOMINANT FEATURE
WILL BE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE AROUND 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS. THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THIS IS OF RATHER LOW
AMPLITUDE BUT IS DEPICTED STRONGER WITH THE ECMWF. THE POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT WILL CREATE ENHANCED LIFT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...ADDING TO THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
IS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PARENT LOW IS FURTHER NORTH IN THIS CASE SO
THIS WILL PRESENT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT BUT ENOUGH WARMING ON A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO END AS RAIN.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER DRY BUT GRADUALLY MODERATING PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT IS QUASI-ZONAL AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH A BRIEF
RETURN OF RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE. THE LESS MERIDIONAL AND MORE ZONAL
FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE OVERALL MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NORTH AND WEST WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING...LEFT AS SLIGHT CHANCE. BOTH SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE MODERATING AIR MASS...THIS IS CONVEYING MORE
OF A RAIN EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE.
VFR. SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KGON WILL LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z.
WEST FLOW 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT DEVELOPING SAT MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AND A NE FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT...IFR IN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ENDING IN THE
EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. NW WIND AROUND 15 KT WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. SNOW PSBL BY MON EVENING BRINGING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.
.TUE...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
WESTERLY GALES CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY. GUSTS ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS COULD APPROACH STORM FORCE
THIS MORNING. GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS TODAY...AND
INTO THE EVENING ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS.
OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN STEADY AT 15 TO 17 FT OUT EAST...AND WILL
ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT EXPECTED ON ERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE LOW PULLING VERY FAR AWAY FURTHER INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MAKE THIS GRADIENT MORE DIFFUSE.
HOWEVER...SEAS ABOVE 5 FT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS.
SCA CONDS EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT LOW AS IT DEEPENS SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND GALES MAY
BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN ONCE AGAIN. SCA GUSTS SHOULD THEN LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEKEND FOR MOST WATERS. THEN
SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A RETURN TO SCA
CONDITIONS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPE OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FELL WITH THE DEPARTING STORM. EXPECT
AROUND 1-3 TENTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WITH THE LOW
ON SAT...AS WELL AS 0.1 TO 0.3 INCH LIQUID MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 12 FT AT THE OCEAN FACING SHORELINES...AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.
DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081-
178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ335-338.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345-
355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS/DW
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
739 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE LOW ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAST OF THE SNOW BANDS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT THE
NEXT HOUR. SPS IN AFFECT TO ADDRESS SLIPPERY DRIVING FROM
SNOW...BLACK ICE AND PONDING OF WATER FROM HEAVY RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM SW-NE DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. STRONG NW-W WINDS
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH WILL OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
STORM...STRONGEST ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND. A SHORT FUSED WIND
ADVY COULD BE ISSUED IF WINDS EARLY THIS AM ARE STRONGER THAN
FCST.
WITH THE AREA BETWEEN STORMS AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING PASSING OHD...
TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSE TO AVG...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A LITTLE
SNOW MELT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND THEN CROSSING THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
MAINLY VIA THE RR QUAD OF A 100+ KT H3 JET OVER THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND...AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON
DEEP LAYER SW FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT
FROM NYC ON WEST. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM BELOW IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION...
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POPS INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING OVER OR NEAR THE 40/70
BENCHMARK BY SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW EVERYWHERE...HOWEVER A BRIEF CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING
ON JUST HOW CLOSE THE LOW PASSES TO LONG ISLAND.
THE MODELS KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION OFF SHORE WITH QPF VALUES
BETWEEN ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. BASED ON SNOWFALL RATIOS
AND TEMPERATURES...THIS WOULD BRING THE REGION ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL.
IN ADDITION...THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS
THE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. MOST MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST OF THE
PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z GFS. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST STARTS TO BUILD IN.
YET ANOTHER BUT WEAKER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SUNDAY. THIS
IS MORE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS TIME...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN JET STREAM STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THIS SCENARIO
WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF SNOW EXPECTED IF ANY AT ALL. POPS
FOR THIS EVENT ARE ONLY AT SLIGHT CHANCE. THE MORE DOMINANT FEATURE
WILL BE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE AROUND 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS. THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THIS IS OF RATHER LOW
AMPLITUDE BUT IS DEPICTED STRONGER WITH THE ECMWF. THE POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT WILL CREATE ENHANCED LIFT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...ADDING TO THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
IS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PARENT LOW IS FURTHER NORTH IN THIS CASE SO
THIS WILL PRESENT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT BUT ENOUGH WARMING ON A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO END AS RAIN.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER DRY BUT GRADUALLY MODERATING PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT IS QUASI-ZONAL AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH A BRIEF
RETURN OF RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE. THE LESS MERIDIONAL AND MORE ZONAL
FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE OVERALL MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NORTH AND WEST WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING...LEFT AS SLIGHT CHANCE. BOTH SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE MODERATING AIR MASS...THIS IS CONVEYING MORE
OF A RAIN EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
G30-35 KT. FLOW DIMINISHES TOWARD EVENING...THEN BECOMES LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT DEVELOPING SAT MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AND A NE FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT...IFR IN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ENDING IN THE
EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. NW WIND AROUND 15 KT WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. SNOW PSBL BY MON EVENING BRINGING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.
.TUE...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
WESTERLY GALES HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE OCEAN...AND EXPECT THEM TO
CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. GUSTS ON
THE ERN OCEAN WATERS COULD APPROACH STORM FORCE THIS MORNING.
EXTENDED GALE WARNING LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THE HARBOR AND
WRN SOUND...AND INTO THE EVENING ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS.
OCEAN SEAS HAVE PEAKED AT CLOSE TO 15 FT OUT EAST..AND WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. SEAS UP TO 7 FT EXPECTED ON ERN LONG ISLAND
SOUND THIS MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE LATER
FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOW PULLING VERY FAR AWAY FURTHER INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MAKE THIS GRADIENT MORE DIFFUSE.
HOWEVER...SEAS ABOVE 5 FT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS.
SCA CONDS EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT LOW AS IT DEEPENS SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND GALES MAY
BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN ONCE AGAIN. SCA GUSTS SHOULD THEN LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEKEND FOR MOST WATERS. THEN
SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A RETURN TO SCA
CONDITIONS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPE OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FELL WITH THE DEPARTING STORM. EXPECT
AROUND 1-3 TENTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WITH THE LOW
ON SAT...AS WELL AS 0.1 TO 0.3 INCH LIQUID MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 12 FT AT THE OCEAN FACING SHORELINES...AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081-
178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ335-338.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345-
355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
514 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE LOW ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW BANDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW...NOW NEAR CAPE COD PER SAT WV IMAGERY...CONTINUE. COULD SEE
ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW BEFORE PRECIP WINDS DOWN BEFORE DAYBREAK IN
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NYC METRO...AND SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG ISLAND. WILL LET WSW
EXPIRE AND CONVERT TO SPS TO ADDRESS SLIPPERY DRIVING FROM
SNOW...BLACK ICE AND PONDING OF WATER FROM HEAVY RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM SW-NE DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. STRONG NW-W WINDS
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH WILL OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
STORM...STRONGEST ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND. A SHORT FUSED WIND
ADVY COULD BE ISSUED IF WINDS EARLY THIS AM ARE STRONGER THAN
FCST.
WITH THE AREA BETWEEN STORMS AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING PASSING OHD...
TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSE TO AVG...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A LITTLE
SNOW MELT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND THEN CROSSING THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
MAINLY VIA THE RR QUAD OF A 100+ KT H3 JET OVER THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND...AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON
DEEP LAYER SW FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT
FROM NYC ON WEST. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM BELOW IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION...
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POPS INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING OVER OR NEAR THE 40/70
BENCHMARK BY SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW EVERYWHERE...HOWEVER A BRIEF CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING
ON JUST HOW CLOSE THE LOW PASSES TO LONG ISLAND.
THE MODELS KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION OFF SHORE WITH QPF VALUES
BETWEEN ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. BASED ON SNOWFALL RATIOS
AND TEMPERATURES...THIS WOULD BRING THE REGION ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL.
IN ADDITION...THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS
THE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. MOST MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST OF THE
PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z GFS. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST STARTS TO BUILD IN.
YET ANOTHER BUT WEAKER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SUNDAY. THIS
IS MORE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS TIME...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN JET STREAM STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THIS SCENARIO
WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF SNOW EXPECTED IF ANY AT ALL. POPS
FOR THIS EVENT ARE ONLY AT SLIGHT CHANCE. THE MORE DOMINANT FEATURE
WILL BE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE AROUND 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS. THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THIS IS OF RATHER LOW
AMPLITUDE BUT IS DEPICTED STRONGER WITH THE ECMWF. THE POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT WILL CREATE ENHANCED LIFT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...ADDING TO THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
IS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PARENT LOW IS FURTHER NORTH IN THIS CASE SO
THIS WILL PRESENT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT BUT ENOUGH WARMING ON A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO END AS RAIN.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER DRY BUT GRADUALLY MODERATING PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT IS QUASI-ZONAL AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH A BRIEF
RETURN OF RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE. THE LESS MERIDIONAL AND MORE ZONAL
FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE OVERALL MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NORTH AND WEST WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING...LEFT AS SLIGHT CHANCE. BOTH SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE MODERATING AIR MASS...THIS IS CONVEYING MORE
OF A RAIN EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW BANDS WILL PUSH ACROSS NYC METRO BY 11Z...AND
FAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 13Z. SEEING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
THESE BANDS...BUT BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL SNOW TOTALS FROM 09Z THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY
FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES.
VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST FLOW THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GUSTS UP TO
35 KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS MORNING MAY VARY BY
AS MUCH AS AN HOUR.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS MORNING MAY VARY BY
AS MUCH AS AN HOUR.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS MORNING MAY VARY BY
AS MUCH AS AN HOUR.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS MORNING MAY VARY BY
AS MUCH AS AN HOUR.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS MORNING MAY VARY BY
AS MUCH AS AN HOUR.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS MORNING MAY VARY BY
AS MUCH AS AN HOUR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.LATE FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.
.SAT...IFR IN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ENDING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. NW WIND AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. SNOW PSBL BY MON EVENING BRINGING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.
.TUE...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
WESTERLY GALES HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE OCEAN...AND EXPECT THEM TO
CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. GUSTS ON
THE ERN OCEAN WATERS COULD APPROACH STORM FORCE THIS MORNING.
EXTENDED GALE WARNING LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THE HARBOR AND
WRN SOUND...AND INTO THE EVENING ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS.
OCEAN SEAS HAVE PEAKED AT CLOSE TO 15 FT OUT EAST..AND WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. SEAS UP TO 7 FT EXPECTED ON ERN LONG ISLAND
SOUND THIS MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE LATER
FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOW PULLING VERY FAR AWAY FURTHER INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MAKE THIS GRADIENT MORE DIFFUSE.
HOWEVER...SEAS ABOVE 5 FT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS.
SCA CONDS EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT LOW AS IT DEEPENS SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND GALES MAY
BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN ONCE AGAIN. SCA GUSTS SHOULD THEN LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEKEND FOR MOST WATERS. THEN
SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A RETURN TO SCA
CONDITIONS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPE OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FELL WITH THE DEPARTING STORM. EXPECT
AROUND 1-3 TENTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WITH THE LOW
ON SAT...AS WELL AS 0.1 TO 0.3 INCH LIQUID MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 12 FT AT THE OCEAN FACING SHORELINES...AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081-
178-179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345-
355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ335-338.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
313 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
906 PM CST
HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER FOR NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS
THIS EVENING TO SHOW A SLOWER DEPARTURE. SATELLITE DOES SHOW A
STEADIER EASTWARD PUSH OF CLOUDS NOW BUT THIS MAY TAKE AN
ADDITIONAL FEW HOURS TO SCATTER/CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA. OTHERWISE
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD NOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CWA WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KT ACCOMPANYING IT FOR A SHORT
TIME...RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF BLOWING SNOW AS WINDS KICK
UP. WINDS EASE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST WITH
A GRADUAL DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS. NEXT WAVE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WILL
LEAVE FORECAST AS-IS AND CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH
FIRST THING IN THE MORNING.
MDB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
318 PM CST
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH MINOR TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT ON
SATURDAY. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SUBZERO NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT WEEK`S
BIG PATTERN CHANGE.
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY IS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA AND IT WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS TURNING WESTERLY AND
USHERING IN COLD ADVECTION. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR
FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
HAVE NOT INDICATED IN FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY
SHALLOW MOISTURE SO ITS DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIP BUT WILL
MONITOR THIS. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...BUT NONETHELESS CAA SHOULD ENABLE LOWS TO DIP TO THE
HIGH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...MILDEST IN
SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPERATURES IS MEDIUM.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN FAST FLOW INTO PAC NW WILL QUICKLY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...INITIATING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING SYSTEM ALONG
OR SOUTH OF OH RIVER BY MID-DAY FRIDAY. PATH OF SURFACE LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING INDICATES THAT ONLY SOUTHERN CWA MAY SEE
GLANCING BLOW OF SNOWFALL TOMORROW...WHERE CHANCE POPS WERE
MAINTAINED. RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TOMORROW AS TO HOW
FAR NORTH THE SNOW SHIELD EXTENDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE ALL FAR SOUTH OF OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT GIVEN STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS IT APPEARS THAT AT MOST
A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH OR SO WOULD OCCUR IN THE FAR SOUTH. AS
SYSTEM DEPARTS SOUTHEAST LATER TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE FROM NORTHWEST. 850/925 MB CLIMATOLOGY SUPPORTS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S.
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PC MUCH OF FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
CLIPPER. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED A BIT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...BUT VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENABLE NORTHWEST WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT OR CALM OVERNIGHT. ASSUMING CLOUDS DO NOT OVERSPREAD
AREA EARLIER...DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEEP SNOWPACK WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SUBZERO LOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE CHICAGO AREA. GIVEN HOW EASILY FAVORED COLD SPOTS HAVE
PLUMMETED IN RECENT NIGHTS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...STILL CONSIDERED THAT LOW-MID MINUS SINGLE DIGITS MAY
NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IN SOME AREAS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING CLIPPER JUST SOUTH
OF CWA ON SATURDAY AND THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW ROBUST FORCING REMAINS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. EVEN THE GUIDANCE THAT MAINTAINS STRONGER FORCING WITH UPPER
WAVE MOVING ACROSS REGION DOES INDICATE AN OVERALL
DAMPENING/WEAKENING TREND...SO BEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE FOCUSED
INTO WESTERN HALF OF CWA AS MENTIONED ON PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.
NONETHELESS..CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN ENTIRE CWA SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOW OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD OF FAVORABLE LIFT AND SATURATION THROUGH A RELATIVELY
DEEP DGZ...AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN LOWER 20S...RATIOS SHOULD BE A
BIT ABOVE AVERAGE AT AROUND 15:1. SIMILAR GENERAL IDEA OF A 1 TO 3
INCH SNOWFALL WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HIGHEST AGAIN LIKELY
FOCUSED INTO WESTERN HALF OF CWA. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD START BY
EARLY AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST CWA OVERSPREADING REST OF AREA BY EARLY
EVENING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR EARLIER ONSET AS SOMETIMES OCCURS
WITH CLIPPER SYSTEMS...AS WELL AS SOME LINGERING SNOWS IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS...THOUGH RAPID WARM ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT OTHERWISE FAIRLY PLEASANT IN THIS
BITTERLY COLD WINTER.
RC
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WINTRY...BUT QUICKLY TRANSITION
TO A MUCH WARMER...BUT MOIST PERIOD.
A LARGE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA....IS
EXPECTED TO BE FORCED SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BY
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A FEATURE THAT IS WELL
AGREED UPON AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING IS ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME RANGE.
PRIOR TO THIS UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD...A STRONG QUASI ZONAL JET
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO EJECT SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES EASTWARD ACROSS FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
HOWEVER...DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA.
IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS WARMER MID LEVEL AIR TRIES TO WORK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. BECAUSE
OF THIS...IT APPEARS THAT A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PRECIP MAY TRANSITION TO RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AS TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. SO...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS...THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW...SLEET OR ICE ON MONDAY...SO THIS WILL BE WORTH WATCHING.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT MONDAY EVENING...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THE TYPICALLY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUALLY SYSTEMS...THERE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THAT THE LARGE SCALE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE TO A PERIOD OF MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OR TWO OF RAIN
AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME CONVECTION LATER NEXT WEEK.
THIS COULD LEAD TO HYDRO CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA...AS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL TO GET DEW POINTS IN EXCESS OF 45 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA
BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THIS WOULD SUPPORT A
RAPID MELT OF THE CURRENT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS
CURRENTLY ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER IN THE SNOW...AND THE
PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TOP OF THIS COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING ISSUES. THE MAIN QUESTIONS AT THIS POINT ARE WHEN AND IF
THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY SEE ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LATER NEXT WEEK. THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT AGREE WELL
WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS LATER NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS DOES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OR TWO OF RAIN LATER NEXT
WEEK. THE EXACT TIMING AND HENCE ANY HYDRO RISKS WILL HAVE TO BE
IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS TODAY
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
BACK EDGE OF MVFR STRATUS IS PIVOTING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD CLEAR
THE CHICAGO AREAS TERMINALS BY AROUND 8 OR 830Z. MID LEVEL VFR OVC
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND STICK AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY. GUSTINESS OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME LESS
FREQUENT AND SUBSIDE THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
PROBABLY EASE IN SPEED A BIT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME
OCNL GUSTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 15-18KT RANGE...BUT WITH OVC
SKIES EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE FRQUENCY AND LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON TAFS
EVEN IF THEY DO OCCUR HAVE NOT INCLUDED GUSTS AT THIS TIME. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND WINDS SUBSIDE FURTHER FRIDAY EVENING.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS REMAINING VFR TODAY
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. IFR LIKELY.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET. MVFR LIKELY.
* MONDAY...FREEZING RAIN/SLEET LIKELY IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO
RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. IFR LIKELY. LIFR
POSSIBLE.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
312 AM CST
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE LAKE TODAY WILL GRADUALLY EASE THIS
EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND THEN FAIRLY QUICKLY
EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL RACE SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY AND DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER TRANSIENT
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. MORE STOUT SOUTHEAST WIND WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THAT HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1154 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 910 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014
The upcoming snow even for late tonight into Friday afternoon
still looks on track. The clipper energy for our event is
currently moving across south-central South Dakota into NC
Nebraska. We may be a little early on the start of snowfall with
the advisory starting at midnight, but light snow should be
falling for the SW portions of the winter weather advisory areas,
W of Springfield. The primary period of time for snow accums still
looks to be between 6 am and Noon west of I-57, with snowfall
accums continuing until around 3 pm for the advisory areas east of
I-57. The compact system will produce a narrow band of 2 to 4" of
snow across our southern counties, with a sharp cutoff on the northern
and southern edges. The 00Z NAM and 00z HRRR are showing similar
solutions to earlier runs, with the higher snow totals primarily
in our advisory counties. The 12z Canadian GEM took the system
slightly farther south than its previous runs, but decent
agreement remains between the latest GFS, NAM, HRRR, and RAP.
Temps during the snowfall support snow ratios around 15:1, which
works well with expected QPF of 0.15 to 0.20".
The evening updates mainly dealt with timing the precip in and out
over the next 24 hours. We delayed the categorical pops late
tonight by an hour, and lowed pops early Fri afternoon in the
west and everywhere after 3 pm. Otherwise, the remainder of the
forecast appears to be in good shape.
Shimon
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014
The clipper system moving across Nebraska is on track to initiate snowfall
late tonight around SPI. The snow will expand eastward quickly
during the morning, with SPI and DEC in line for 2 to 4" of
accumulation by mid afternoon. PIA, BMI, and CMI will most likely
be in the 1 to 2" range, but better chances are toward the 1"
amounts that far north. IFR and LIFR conditions are expected
during the periods of moderate snow for SPI and DEC between 14z
and 18z. The other TAF sites should remain MVFR during light
snowfall until early afternoon.
The speed of the clipper should allow snow to come to an end in
SPI shortly after 18z, with DEC and CMI seeing snow lasting
possibly until 21z or so.
VFR conditions should develop again during the evening as dry air
filters back into the area.
Shimon
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 311 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014
Models look in fairly good agreement with the next two waves
coming through the area through the weekend. So, a blend of the
models looks like a good forecast at this time, in the short term.
In the extended, one system moves into the area for first part of
the week. With temps warming, pcpn type will be tricky at onset of
the pcpn. Then looks like another system is forecast for later
part of the week. Models show some differences on timing of this
system, but all models forecasting warmer temps for next week.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday
Another snow event is coming for very late tonight through
tomorrow. All models are in good agreement with this system so
confidence is high with timing, location and amounts for this
event. Models have trended little further north with best area of
lift and moisture. Looks like snow will begin in the extreme west
after 09z tonight and then overspread the rest of central and
southeast Illinois by 15z. Heaviest snow band should setup south
of a Macomb to Lincoln to Paris line. With the sfc low tracking
from southern MO to western TN tomorrow, looks like should be
plenty of moisture for there to be enough accumulating snow to
reach advisory criteria by tomorrow afternoon. Does look like most
of snow will be tomorrow morning from 6am to noon, with lingering
snow still occurring in the east and southeast during the early
afternoon. So a winter weather advisory will be issued for already
mentioned areas. Snowfall amounts will decrease rapidly to the
north. After a brief dry period, Friday night, another minor snow
event will track across the north into the Grt Lks region. Highest
snowfall amounts, near an inch, will be in the extreme north of
the cwa with axis being along and north of I-74. This snow will
occur mainly Sat afternoon and Sat evening. Then dry weather
should return of Sunday.
Temps through the period will remain cold, below normal.
LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday
Extended period is forecasting a change in the pattern, though it
may be temporary. However, another system is forecast to move into
the region beginning Sunday night and continuing into Monday. This
system will have to overcome a lot of dry air initially so the
pcpn could begin as a mix of sleet and freezing rain. The temps
will warm up to above freezing early Monday morning, so pcpn will
change over to all rain. Pcpn will begin northwest of the IL river
Sunday night, before overspreading the rest of the area as just
rain on Monday. Pcpn could end as a mix of rain and snow, but this
is not worth mentioning at this time. The next weather system will
be Wed through Thur and based on the warmer temps, this pcpn will
be all rain. Cloudy, windy and foggy conditions are also possible as
there will have been several days of temps above freezing and we
have a lot of snow to melt over most of the area. Initial looks at
this system show that thunderstorms are possible, but with models
disagreeing and system 7 days out, it is too soon add
thunderstorms at this time.
Definite warming trend in store for next week. Daytime temps will
warm to above freezing, however, overnight lows will still fall
back to below freezing over portions of the area Mon night and Tue
night. Lows Wed night will be above freezing.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Friday FOR ILZ040-047>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1151 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ONE TODAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. ADDITIONAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS MAY AFFECT THE AREA AROUND THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS WELL AS AROUND THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
15Z UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE NEXT LINE OR TWO OF COUNTIES NORTHWARD...BASED ON
OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR ANALYSIS. THESE COUNTIES WILL
LIKELY NOT RECEIVE THE 4" AVERAGE OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...THOUGH SOME COUNTIES MAY COME CLOSE. AM CONCERNED ABOUT
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THIS WAS MORE
THE REASONING FOR ISSUING THIS ADVISORY FARTHER NORTHWARD.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SYSTEM...CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS...ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT MIDDAY AND SUNSET.
WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS STARTING AFTER ABOUT 141700Z...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTH. STILL LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT
2-4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS OVER THE FAR NORTH.
WILL NEED TO ADJUST THE STARTING TIME OF THE ADVISORY MORE TOWARDS
THE MIDDAY HOURS TO BETTER REFLECT THE ANTICIPATED STARTING TIME OF
THE SNOW.
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TODAY GENERALLY SUPPORT THE GFS MOS
HIGHS. LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
TODAY/S SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA BY
SUNSET. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TO COVER ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT APPEARS MOST OF
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER BY THEN.
NEXT DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER THAN TODAY/S...BUT STILL BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.
WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES...AND RATHER HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT MAY
BE A LITTLE WARM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL NUDGE
DOWN THE GUIDANCE A BIT IN THOSE AREA. THE GFS MOS HIGHS ON SATURDAY
LOOK A LITTLE COLD...SO WILL ADJUST THEM UP A BIT THERE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE AND CONSISTENT OVER
THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ADVERTISING A FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH TWO
EMBEDDED SYSTEMS. THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MORNING WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SUGGEST ALL RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
FREEZING MENTION OUT FOR NOW AT LEAST BEING THAT FAR OUT AND WITH
ONLY A FEW HOURS AT BEST SUITABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN. MODELS ARE ALL
INDICATING A MODERATELY STRONG BUT FAST MOVING SYSTEM. SO...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE RAINFALL TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO EFFECT THE RIVERS MUCH
OTHER THAN FROM THE MELTING SNOW THAT COULD BE EQUIVALENT TO UP TO 2
INCHES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH.
THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BRING MORE PRECIPITATION IN BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS...CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES ALL SUGGEST JUST RAIN. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS MUCH STRONGER
WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...BUT EITHER WAY...ALL THE EXTENDED MODELS
ARE ONLY PRODUCING MODERATE QPF AT THIS POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH FAST AS WELL.
WITH THE MODELS AND MODEL TRENDS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WILL ACCEPT
THE REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS
THE 50S AND 60S BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 141800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z WITH IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FIRST 6 HOURS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING THEN VFR RETURNS OVERNIGHT.
SNOW WILL PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 1/2SM WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS. HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO END BY 21Z WITH SNOW ENDING BY 23-00Z.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 06-8Z BEFORE CEILINGS BREAK.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNRISE BUT ODDS AREN/T HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF SET.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
INZ035>037-039>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ONE TODAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. ADDITIONAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS MAY AFFECT THE AREA AROUND THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS WELL AS AROUND THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
15Z UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE NEXT LINE OR TWO OF COUNTIES NORTHWARD...BASED ON
OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR ANALYSIS. THESE COUNTIES WILL
LIKELY NOT RECEIVE THE 4" AVERAGE OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
SNOWFALL...THOUGH SOME COUNTIES MAY COME CLOSE. AM CONCERNED ABOUT
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THIS WAS MORE
THE REASONING FOR ISSUING THIS ADVISORY FARTHER NORTHWARD.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SYSTEM...CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS...ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH ABOUT THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT MIDDAY AND SUNSET.
WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS STARTING AFTER ABOUT 141700Z...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTH. STILL LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT
2-4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS OVER THE FAR NORTH.
WILL NEED TO ADJUST THE STARTING TIME OF THE ADVISORY MORE TOWARDS
THE MIDDAY HOURS TO BETTER REFLECT THE ANTICIPATED STARTING TIME OF
THE SNOW.
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TODAY GENERALLY SUPPORT THE GFS MOS
HIGHS. LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
TODAY/S SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA BY
SUNSET. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TO COVER ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT APPEARS MOST OF
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER BY THEN.
NEXT DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER THAN TODAY/S...BUT STILL BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.
WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES...AND RATHER HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT MAY
BE A LITTLE WARM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL NUDGE
DOWN THE GUIDANCE A BIT IN THOSE AREA. THE GFS MOS HIGHS ON SATURDAY
LOOK A LITTLE COLD...SO WILL ADJUST THEM UP A BIT THERE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE AND CONSISTENT OVER
THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ADVERTISING A FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH TWO
EMBEDDED SYSTEMS. THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MORNING WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SUGGEST ALL RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
FREEZING MENTION OUT FOR NOW AT LEAST BEING THAT FAR OUT AND WITH
ONLY A FEW HOURS AT BEST SUITABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN. MODELS ARE ALL
INDICATING A MODERATELY STRONG BUT FAST MOVING SYSTEM. SO...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE RAINFALL TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO EFFECT THE RIVERS MUCH
OTHER THAN FROM THE MELTING SNOW THAT COULD BE EQUIVALENT TO UP TO 2
INCHES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH.
THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BRING MORE PRECIPITATION IN BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS...CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES ALL SUGGEST JUST RAIN. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS MUCH STRONGER
WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...BUT EITHER WAY...ALL THE EXTENDED MODELS
ARE ONLY PRODUCING MODERATE QPF AT THIS POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH FAST AS WELL.
WITH THE MODELS AND MODEL TRENDS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WILL ACCEPT
THE REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS
THE 50S AND 60S BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 141500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 920 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL BE SEEN AS
BAND OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS MARCHES STEADILY EAST. HAVE
LOWERED INDY TAF DOWN TO HIGH END IFR FOR NOW AND WILL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON DEVELOPMENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE AFTER 16Z AS WEAK
SURFACE SYSTEM PIVOTS EAST NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TODAY AND FOLLOWED
BRIEFLY BY A QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH.
MORE CONFIDENT THAT BMG AND HUF WILL SEE IFR AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BETTER LIFT WILL BE DOWN THERE. LEAST CONFIDENT IN CONDITIONS AT
LAF...BUT MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW LOOKS OK...AS NOTHING MUCH MORE THAN
FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THERE. IND SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BETWEENER. THE
SNOW SHOULD END AFTER 23Z WITH CLEARING TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AROUND
THE SAME TIME.
WINDS SHOULD DROP TO 10 KNOTS OR BELOW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
DECREASES TODAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
INZ035>037-039>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1134 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014
Added a small chance of rain or sleet to the eastern 2/3rds of the
CWA after 08Z. RAP/HRRR and NAM develop precipitation ahead of an
approaching PV anomaly. Lapse rates steepen and isentropic lift
increases after 08Z. However dry air in low levels will likely
keep the precipitation on the light side. Looking at soundings
from RAP and NAM would suggest rain or sleet will be possible.
Again amounts will be on the light side if any.
&&
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014
Clear skies have allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 40s to
low 50s across the area today. Snow cover has prevented any further
warming although there has been some melting, and this may add extra
moisture into the boundary layer supporting the develop of haze,
especially after sunset under the clear skies. Although the period
of clear skies will be brief as mid level clouds are forecast to
move into the area shortly before midnight ahead of the approaching
system therefore do not expect widespread fog. This should keep the
temperatures from rapidly dropping overnight, and could lead to
warmer low temperatures, which are forecast to be in the upper 20s
to near 30. A front currently passing through the Midwest has forced
a baroclinic zone southward into NE, and eventually far northeast
KS. As the mid level shortwave passes over the region overnight and
tomorrow morning it will drive a surface low pressure directly over
the forecast area along the baroclinic zone. There is a slight
chance that far northeast KS could see flurries as the lift
increases mainly before sunrise. Forecast soundings are showing a
rather deep layer of dry air roughly 950 to 750 mb that may prevent
any precipitation as the lift quickly advances eastward before
saturation occurs.
Behind the departing system a strong northwesterly low level jet
passes over the region. Cold air advection and daytime heating will
promote steep low level lapse rates resulting in deep mixing. The
stronger winds should mix down during the day tomorrow, and
increasing subsidence could enhance any downward momentum transfer.
Northwest winds increase to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35
mph especially in north central KS. Temperatures will be somewhat
tricky tomorrow as a secondary surge of cold air is forecast to move
in during the afternoon. This will keep high temperatures in the mid
30s in far northeast KS and in the mid 40s in central KS, and
possibly colder depending on the timing. Could see partly cloudy
skies linger through the afternoon before drier air pushes in from
the northwest.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014
Fri night-Sunday...Surface high pressure slides over the forecast
area Friday evening but moves quickly east, and could make for
tricky lows Friday night, as western counties may climb later in
the night as southerly winds as well as clouds return. Have teens
NE to low 20s SW but forecast may be on the cool side. Appears to
be enough wind to not make fog a big concern at this time despite
boost to moisture in the boundary layer from melting snow. The
next shortwave trof drops through the WNW flow aloft across Iowa
and into Illinois on Saturday. Winds in the mid levels near 50kts
mid morning and will likely aid in mixing the boundary layer
quickly as well as increasing winds and gusts for a time from
morning into mid afternoon. Highs 40s NE to 50s SW. Following
surface high Sunday night has center more over Eastern Kansas but
temperatures not as cold, and will keep lows in the 20s near 30
for most of the area. Retreating high and increasing southerly
winds across the high plains will once again bring warmer highs in
the middle 50s west with cooler temperatures in the 40s in the far
northeast. Warm air advection continues overnight Sunday into
Monday and will only drop lows into the 30s.
Mon-Thurs...Next wave on approach for Monday and associated low
slides through in the morning hours. Once again the airmass coming
in behind this wave not as cold and should be able to reach middle
50s for many locations through the southwest counties. Could see
some showers from WAA and passing wave across the east and
southeast. GFS and EC differ on how far south to track the next
shortwave, but both keep the colder air north and will carry highs
in the middle to upper 50s for Tuesday, with upper 50s low 60s
possible by Wednesday. Long range models differ on strength of the
upper jet and southern extent of energy moving across the plains,
with EC deepening a wrn trof while GFS remains weaker and
progressive. Kept guidance with highs in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014
Shortwave moving southeast will spread some scattered rain or
sprinkles and perhaps even some sleet. Confidence not high enough
to insert into the TAFs at this time. VFR conditions expected
through 12Z then MVFR cigs will develop behind a cold front after
14Z then expect VFR after 21Z. Winds will increase to around 15
kts with gusts around 25 kts. winds will decrease toward 00Z to
less than 10 kts by 02Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...53
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1057 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
PRECIP SEEMS TO BE REACHING THE GROUND FINALLY IN A FEW PLACES ACROSS
CENTRAL KY...MAINLY ALONG THE HEAVIEST REFLECTIVITIES. THIS INCLUDES
THE MONTICELLO SITE...SO THERE IS HOPE THAT SOME OF THIS SNOW IS
FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KY. ONGOING POP FORECAST SEEMS TO
BE VERY WELL ON TRACK...WITH HIGHER POPS MOVING IN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. DID A LOAD OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO MAKE
SURE TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WIND FORECASTS ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF
ONGOING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FLUCTUATE
LITTLE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
DESPITE DECENT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL TN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KY...AND POINTS TO THE NW...SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE TO NO
SNOW REPORTS IN ANY OF THESE AREAS. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS STILL
AROUND 10 DEGREES IN AREAS UNDER THE HIGHEST RETURNS...IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH A LEVEL OF DRY AIR HAS CUT OFF ANY OF THE MOISTURE FROM MAKING
IT TO THE GROUND. IN FACT...AS THE PRECIP HAS NEARED CLOSER...CIGS
HAVE ACTUALLY LIFTED TO MID/HIGH VFR. A FEW SITES HAVE REPORTED
SNOW...BUT IT SEEMS TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT SPORADIC. IF
ANYTHING...THE HRRR IS INITIALIZING THE BEST WITH ITS PRECIP OUTPUT
VS WHERE THE SNOW REPORTS ARE ACTUALLY BEING SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH THAT IN MIND...USED IT AND A BLEND OF THE OFFICIAL...LATEST NAM AND
REGIONAL GEM AS A BASIS TO UPDATE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENTLY...A BAND OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY IS MOVING INTO THE FAR SW
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW
FLAKES OUT OF THIS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT QPF WILL REMAIN AT A
MINIMUM.
IN UPDATING THE POPS...ALSO WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED QPF
ACCORDINGLY...LOWERING IT AND THE 6HR SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY. DO EXPECT
THAT WE WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...BUT SHOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...WITH
SOME PLACES POTENTIALLY MISSING IT ALTOGETHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE THE SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW FLURRIES...EVEN
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS FROM A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY POKING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THIS POINT...OBSERVATIONS UP
NORTH LOOK PRETTY SCARCE AS THIS CLIPPER LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AT
THIS POINT. SHORT TERM MODELS BRING THIS CLIPPER IN PRETTY QUICKLY
THIS EVENING BUT HAS A DECENT LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER TO OVERCOME AT THIS
POINT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL MAINTAIN SUB FREEZING VALUES THROUGH THE
AREA BUT THE LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL KEEP TOTALS TEMPERED QUITE A
BIT...IN FACT LIMITING ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTH AND IN THE EAST HIGH
TERRAIN AT A HALF INCH AND BELOW...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL LATER...POSSIBLY 06Z...FOR THE LOWER LAYER TO BECOME SATURATED.
LOOKING AT THE NAM...THE 08Z TO 11Z TIME FRAME SHOWS A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF DECENT DENDRITIC GROWTH BUT WOULD ONLY RESULT IN ABOUT A
HALF INCH ACCUMULATION BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HIGHLIGHT THIS WITH
A HWO OR BOTH AN HWO AND SPS.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE CLOUD COVER HEADING OFF TO NORTHEAST
AS THE CLIPPER QUICKLY EXITS THE AREA AND BRIEF RIDGING FOLLOWS IN
BEHIND...TEMPS WILL WARM UP INTO THE 40S QUITE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON HIGHER ELEVATIONS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE UPPER 30S DUE TO THE EXITING CLOUD COVER
AND ANY SNOW COVER LEFT OVER. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAINTAINING A
ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...THOUGH A
BIT MORE INTENSE THAN THE LAST...INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING A BIT ON ARRIVAL TIME WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT IT SEEMS RECENT RUNS HAVE CONSENSUS ON A LATER ARRIVAL SO
WILL HOLD OFF BRINGING IN POPS UNTIL THE MONDAY PERIOD WHICH IS IN
THE EXTENDED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER BY MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
RIPPLES IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FIRST WAVE THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BRING A GOOD
SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH OF QPF. A WEAKER RIPPLE WILL
THEN PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO WILL ONLY
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BY THURSDAY...AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE TROUGH WILL DIG IN A LITTLE OVER THE ROCKIES
CREATING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...PEAKING THURSDAY NIGHT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO DECENT WIND PROFILE WITH A
LITTLE PROGGED INSTABILITY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL TO OUR
SOUTH AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WE WILL
PROLONG A MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER THUNDER MENTION ON SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS.
DESPITE ALL THE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE BIG
STORY WILL BE THE WARMING TREND. THIS WILL REALLY KICK IN ONCE THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SENDING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ON
THURSDAY. ENJOY IT BECAUSE IT WILL NOT LAST...IT IS AFTER ALL STILL
FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER IOWA...HAS CREATED A
LEVEL OF ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ITS SOUTHEAST...PRODUCING AN AREA OF
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY. BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS...ONE WOULD EXPECT SNOW TO BE REACHING THE SURFACE IN
THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS...THERE IS A
GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING THE MOISTURE FROM HITTING
THE GROUND. ONLY A FEW SITES UPSTREAM ARE SHOWING ANY SNOW HITTING
THE GROUND...WHICH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON
QUITE WELL. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN KY...EXPECT THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE...WITH DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE KEEPING CIGS JUST ABOVE
VFR AND ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL TO MAINLY AFFECT AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF...KJKL AND KSJS. EVEN THEN...IMPACTS WILL BE AT A
MINIMUM...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AND SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY EXPECTED. BY MORNING...SNOW WILL HAVE MOVED OUT...BUT
MOISTURE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH SOME MVFR CLOUDS POSSIBLE
AT KJKL AND KSJS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY AND NICE DAY FOR SUNDAY AT
THE TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
824 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
DESPITE DECENT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL TN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KY...AND POINTS TO THE NW...SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE TO NO
SNOW REPORTS IN ANY OF THESE AREAS. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS STILL
AROUND 10 DEGREES IN AREAS UNDER THE HIGHEST RETURNS...IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH A LEVEL OF DRY AIR HAS CUT OFF ANY OF THE MOISTURE FROM MAKING
IT TO THE GROUND. IN FACT...AS THE PRECIP HAS NEARED CLOSER...CIGS
HAVE ACTUALLY LIFTED TO MID/HIGH VFR. A FEW SITES HAVE REPORTED
SNOW...BUT IT SEEMS TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT SPORADIC. IF
ANYTHING...THE HRRR IS INITIALIZING THE BEST WITH ITS PRECIP OUTPUT
VS WHERE THE SNOW REPORTS ARE ACTUALLY BEING SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH THAT IN MIND...USED IT AND A BLEND OF THE OFFICIAL...LATEST NAM AND
REGIONAL GEM AS A BASIS TO UPDATE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENTLY...A BAND OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY IS MOVING INTO THE FAR SW
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW
FLAKES OUT OF THIS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT QPF WILL REMAIN AT A
MINIMUM.
IN UPDATING THE POPS...ALSO WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED QPF
ACCORDINGLY...LOWERING IT AND THE 6HR SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY. DO EXPECT
THAT WE WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...BUT SHOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...WITH
SOME PLACES POTENTIALLY MISSING IT ALTOGETHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE THE SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW FLURRIES...EVEN
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS FROM A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY POKING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THIS POINT...OBSERVATIONS UP
NORTH LOOK PRETTY SCARCE AS THIS CLIPPER LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AT
THIS POINT. SHORT TERM MODELS BRING THIS CLIPPER IN PRETTY QUICKLY
THIS EVENING BUT HAS A DECENT LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER TO OVERCOME AT THIS
POINT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL MAINTAIN SUB FREEZING VALUES THROUGH THE
AREA BUT THE LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL KEEP TOTALS TEMPERED QUITE A
BIT...IN FACT LIMITING ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTH AND IN THE EAST HIGH
TERRAIN AT A HALF INCH AND BELOW...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL LATER...POSSIBLY 06Z...FOR THE LOWER LAYER TO BECOME SATURATED.
LOOKING AT THE NAM...THE 08Z TO 11Z TIME FRAME SHOWS A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF DECENT DENDRITIC GROWTH BUT WOULD ONLY RESULT IN ABOUT A
HALF INCH ACCUMULATION BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HIGHLIGHT THIS WITH
A HWO OR BOTH AN HWO AND SPS.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE CLOUD COVER HEADING OFF TO NORTHEAST
AS THE CLIPPER QUICKLY EXITS THE AREA AND BRIEF RIDGING FOLLOWS IN
BEHIND...TEMPS WILL WARM UP INTO THE 40S QUITE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON HIGHER ELEVATIONS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE UPPER 30S DUE TO THE EXITING CLOUD COVER
AND ANY SNOW COVER LEFT OVER. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAINTAINING A
ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...THOUGH A
BIT MORE INTENSE THAN THE LAST...INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING A BIT ON ARRIVAL TIME WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT IT SEEMS RECENT RUNS HAVE CONSENSUS ON A LATER ARRIVAL SO
WILL HOLD OFF BRINGING IN POPS UNTIL THE MONDAY PERIOD WHICH IS IN
THE EXTENDED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER BY MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
RIPPLES IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FIRST WAVE THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BRING A GOOD
SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH OF QPF. A WEAKER RIPPLE WILL
THEN PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO WILL ONLY
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BY THURSDAY...AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE TROUGH WILL DIG IN A LITTLE OVER THE ROCKIES
CREATING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...PEAKING THURSDAY NIGHT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO DECENT WIND PROFILE WITH A
LITTLE PROGGED INSTABILITY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL TO OUR
SOUTH AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WE WILL
PROLONG A MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER THUNDER MENTION ON SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS.
DESPITE ALL THE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE BIG
STORY WILL BE THE WARMING TREND. THIS WILL REALLY KICK IN ONCE THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SENDING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ON
THURSDAY. ENJOY IT BECAUSE IT WILL NOT LAST...IT IS AFTER ALL STILL
FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER IOWA...HAS CREATED A
LEVEL OF ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ITS SOUTHEAST...PRODUCING AN AREA OF
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY. BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS...ONE WOULD EXPECT SNOW TO BE REACHING THE SURFACE IN
THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS...THERE IS A
GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING THE MOISTURE FROM HITTING
THE GROUND. ONLY A FEW SITES UPSTREAM ARE SHOWING ANY SNOW HITTING
THE GROUND...WHICH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON
QUITE WELL. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN KY...EXPECT THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE...WITH DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE KEEPING CIGS JUST ABOVE
VFR AND ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL TO MAINLY AFFECT AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF...KJKL AND KSJS. EVEN THEN...IMPACTS WILL BE AT A
MINIMUM...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AND SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY EXPECTED. BY MORNING...SNOW WILL HAVE MOVED OUT...BUT
MOISTURE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH SOME MVFR CLOUDS POSSIBLE
AT KJKL AND KSJS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY AND NICE DAY FOR SUNDAY AT
THE TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
717 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE THE SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW FLURRIES...EVEN
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS FROM A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY POKING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THIS POINT...OBSERVATIONS UP
NORTH LOOK PRETTY SCARCE AS THIS CLIPPER LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AT
THIS POINT. SHORT TERM MODELS BRING THIS CLIPPER IN PRETTY QUICKLY
THIS EVENING BUT HAS A DECENT LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER TO OVERCOME AT THIS
POINT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL MAINTAIN SUB FREEZING VALUES THROUGH THE
AREA BUT THE LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL KEEP TOTALS TEMPERED QUITE A
BIT...IN FACT LIMITING ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTH AND IN THE EAST HIGH
TERRAIN AT A HALF INCH AND BELOW...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL LATER...POSSIBLY 06Z...FOR THE LOWER LAYER TO BECOME SATURATED.
LOOKING AT THE NAM...THE 08Z TO 11Z TIME FRAME SHOWS A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF DECENT DENDRITIC GROWTH BUT WOULD ONLY RESULT IN ABOUT A
HALF INCH ACCUMULATION BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HIGHLIGHT THIS WITH
A HWO OR BOTH AN HWO AND SPS.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE CLOUD COVER HEADING OFF TO NORTHEAST
AS THE CLIPPER QUICKLY EXITS THE AREA AND BRIEF RIDGING FOLLOWS IN
BEHIND...TEMPS WILL WARM UP INTO THE 40S QUITE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON HIGHER ELEVATIONS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE UPPER 30S DUE TO THE EXITING CLOUD COVER
AND ANY SNOW COVER LEFT OVER. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAINTAINING A
ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...THOUGH A
BIT MORE INTENSE THAN THE LAST...INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING A BIT ON ARRIVAL TIME WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT IT SEEMS RECENT RUNS HAVE CONSENSUS ON A LATER ARRIVAL SO
WILL HOLD OFF BRINGING IN POPS UNTIL THE MONDAY PERIOD WHICH IS IN
THE EXTENDED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER BY MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
RIPPLES IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FIRST WAVE THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BRING A GOOD
SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH OF QPF. A WEAKER RIPPLE WILL
THEN PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO WILL ONLY
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BY THURSDAY...AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE TROUGH WILL DIG IN A LITTLE OVER THE ROCKIES
CREATING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...PEAKING THURSDAY NIGHT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO DECENT WIND PROFILE WITH A
LITTLE PROGGED INSTABILITY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL TO OUR
SOUTH AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WE WILL
PROLONG A MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER THUNDER MENTION ON SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS.
DESPITE ALL THE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE BIG
STORY WILL BE THE WARMING TREND. THIS WILL REALLY KICK IN ONCE THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SENDING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ON
THURSDAY. ENJOY IT BECAUSE IT WILL NOT LAST...IT IS AFTER ALL STILL
FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER IOWA...HAS CREATED A
LEVEL OF ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ITS SOUTHEAST...PRODUCING AN AREA OF
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY. BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS...ONE WOULD EXPECT SNOW TO BE REACHING THE SURFACE IN
THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS...THERE IS A
GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING THE MOISTURE FROM HITTING
THE GROUND. ONLY A FEW SITES UPSTREAM ARE SHOWING ANY SNOW HITTING
THE GROUND...WHICH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON
QUITE WELL. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN KY...EXPECT THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE...WITH DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE KEEPING CIGS JUST ABOVE
VFR AND ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL TO MAINLY AFFECT AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF...KJKL AND KSJS. EVEN THEN...IMPACTS WILL BE AT A
MINIMUM...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AND SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY EXPECTED. BY MORNING...SNOW WILL HAVE MOVED OUT...BUT
MOISTURE MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH SOME MVFR CLOUDS POSSIBLE
AT KJKL AND KSJS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY AND NICE DAY FOR SUNDAY AT
THE TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
948 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
946 PM UPDATE...A 987 MB LOW CONTINUES TO UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING
100 MI SE OF THE CAPE THIS EVENING WITH PRESSURE FALLS ON THE
ORDER OF 4 MB/HR. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL TRACK JUST E OF
HALIFAX AS A 970 MB LOW AT 12Z SUN. THE 18Z GFS AND 00Z RUC HAD
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW AT 00Z AS THE NAM AND
ECMWF WERE A BIT TOO FAR WEST WITH THE LOW CENTER. STEADY SNOW IS
FALLING ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN MOST AREAS AS
OF 930 PM. THE SNOW HAS PUSHED INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE BUT IS
MUCH LIGHTER. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS FALLING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND THE HEAVY SNOW SHOULD MOVE INTO DOWNEAST AREAS AND
ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ONE CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND OF 35-40 KNOTS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS CENTERED AROUND 06Z. THE STRONGEST WIND IS CONFINED
TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE WIND SPEEDS RAPIDLY DROPPING OFF
INLAND. WHAT SNOW IS ON THE GROUND IS CRUSTED OVER AND WILL NOT
BLOW AROUND MUCH. THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS THE WIND
INCREASES AND THE SNOW INCREASES IN INTENSITY. THE POTENTIAL OF
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS ADDRESSED IN THE CURRENT WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THAT ARE OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE GULF
STREAM AND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED EAST OF
CAPE COD. AROUND MIDNIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LAND FALL
AROUND CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...THEN NORTH TOWARD PRINCE EDWARD
ISLAND. BY MID DAY WILL BE INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE WEST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IT WILL MOVE TO THE NRN
PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. ANALYSIS OF THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR DATA
SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND THE JET SUPPORT SHOW THE UPPER LOW SHOULD
TRACK ACROSS...THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA...ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS CAPE COD...ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...THEN INTO NW NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS TRACK WOULD SUPPORT THE MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
SOMEWHERE JUST WEST OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA FOR LANDFALL. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS ARE UP FOR EASTERN MAINE FROM THE COAST TO THE
CROWN OF MAINE. ADDED ZONES 5 AND 31 TO THE WARNING THAT WERE
ALREADY UP. ZONE 31 MAY FALL A BIT SHORT ON SNOWFALL...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE IMPACT CAUSED BY THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FELT THAT 31
SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN THE WARNING. ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING
ZONES.
LOADED CONSHPCBLEND FOR TEMPS/WNDS/SKY POPS. LOADED HPC FOR POP
GRIDS AND TRIMMED AMOUNTS ACROSS NW ME. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS
IN COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 20 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND
30 PERCENT OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST AND AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH. OTHERWISE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST WITH
A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND SOME BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING CLEARING ON MONDAY
WITH THE AFTERNOON MOSTLY SUNNY FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MIDDAY AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION A BIT DOWNEAST LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE,
TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND A BIT MILDER ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL CONTINUE GOING INTO LATER NEXT WEEK BUT
IT`S LOOKING LIKE STORMS ARE GOING TO BE TRACKING NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME PERIODS OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ONE SMALL LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME MODERATION
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS NUDGING ABOVE FREEZING DOWNEAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY. A LARGER LOW MAY THEN TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT DRAWS AN OCCLUDING FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS
SHOWS A WEAK SECONDARY LOW NEAR THE COAST. IF THIS OCCURS, ENOUGH
COLD AIR MAY REMAIN OVER THE NORTH FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH RAIN
FAVORED DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WOULD FOLLOW FOR EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK THAT MAY
BRING RAIN DOWNEAST AND SNOW OR A MIX OVER THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SNOW DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE INTO NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. IFR
CONDITIONS BHB...BGR...AND HUL IN LIGHT SNOW...BCMG LIFR TO BELOW
MINS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING. LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD TO PQI...CAR...AND FVE AROUND MIDNIGHT.
CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN SITES WILL REMAIN IFR TO THE END OF THE
PERIOD IN WRAP AROUND PRECIP.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT THEN BE
VFR IN HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
LIKELY IN HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA SUN MORNING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUN MORNING AS THE LOW EXITS
THE AREA TO THE EAST. A GALE WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED SUNDAY FOLLOWING
THE STORM WARNING.
SHORT TERM: A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER. AN SCA MAY BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ002-005-006-
031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ001-003-
004-010.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-
029-030-032.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/NORTON
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/NORTON/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/NORTON/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
651 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED UPSTREAM
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO NRN MN AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER
IA. RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES FROM 7.5C-8.0C/KM HAS
HELPED MAXIMIZING LIFT WITH THE MODERATE 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV
AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV HAS SUPPORTED AREAS OF MODERATE SNOW FROM NRN MN
INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SNOW ALSO FROM NRN MN INTO THE KEWEENAW
ALSO HAD A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE...PER VIS SATELLITE LOOP.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WERE THICKENING ACROSS THE REST OF UPPER MI AS
THE AREA OF SNOW FROM NEAR DLH INTO NW WI APPROACHED IWD.
THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS
AFTERNOON WAS ALIGNED WITH 800-600 MB FGEN.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND THE NAM/REGIONAL GEM SUGGEST
THAT THE STRONGER FORCING WILL SLIDE THROUGH WRN AND WRN UPPER MI
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV. UPSTREAM OBS AND MODELS CONSENSUS
QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.15 INCH WITH THE SLR VALUES OF AROUND 20/1 WOULD
GIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. SOME LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE THE DURATION OF FGEN
FORCING AND LOCALLY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW SQUEEZES
OUT SOME GREATER AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS OVER THE KEWEENAW WOULD LIKELY BE
MUCH HIGHER BUT THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER HAS LIMITED ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL ERLY FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AS THE SHRTWV
DEPARTS.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT LES INTO N CNTRL
UPPER MI WITH SOME MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX FROM ANY GAPS IN THE LAKE ICE
COVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS INITIALLY DRIVEN BY ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF A DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF AK. THAT
UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY MON INTO TUE...WITH SOME OF THE
REMAINING ENERGY BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE WRN AND CENTRAL CONUS
MID-LATE THIS WEEK WHERE MODELS INDICATE IT WILL BE DEEPENED INTO A
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES.
THE FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MON
INTO MON NIGHT. A FEW THINGS ARE LEADING TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH...TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IMPACTS
RELATED FIELDS SUCH AS QPF. FIRST...THE ENERGY IS STILL TIED TO THE
LOW AND IS OVER THE PACIFIC...AND THEREFORE OUT OF THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL OBSERVATION NETWORK SO SAMPLING IS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT OF AN
ISSUE. SECOND...AND PROBABLY THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL REASON FOR
DISAGREEMENT...IS THAT THE ENERGY LOOKS TO BE SPLIT BETWEEN A NRN
AND SRN SHORTWAVE...THE SOUTHERN OF WHICH IS HELPED OUT BY AN JET
STREAK AND IS THE MAIN FEATURE. MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE /RUN TO
RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL/ WITH AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OF THE ENERGY TO
ALLOT TO EACH OF THE SHORTWAVES...ALONG WITH MOISTURE FIELDS AND
SUCH. THE 12Z/15 GFS AND 00Z/15 ECMWF REPRESENT TWO OF THE EXTREMES
WITH THE NRN SHORTWAVE. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER /WITH LOWER QPF
TOTALS LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES/ WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER
AND ACTUALLY HAS THE NRN SHORTWAVE BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE
WHILE BECOMING CLOSED OFF OVER LOWER MI LATE MON. THE ECMWF HAS THE
MOST QPF AT 0.35-0.45 INCHES. WHILE NOT AT ALL SURE IF ANY OF THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS WILL BE CORRECT...WILL USE THE 12/15 NAM AND 12/15 GEM
SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THE NAM IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS WHILE THE GEM IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...BUT THEY
ARE STILL MORE MODERATED SOLUTIONS TO THE TWO EXTREMES. THIS GIVES
TOTAL QPF OF 0.25-0.35 INCHES...WHICH TRANSLATES TO ROUGHLY 3-5
INCHES OF SNOW...WHICH MATCHES UP TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL...YET WEAKER...SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE THROUGH TUE INTO
WED...WITH CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LOOKS TO
BE QUITE A BIT MORE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS NOT AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE. MORE INTERESTINGLY...MODELS BRING
AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS AS WARM AS 0C ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MAX SFC TEMPS AROUND 30F...WET BULB ZERO TEMPS ABOVE
THE SFC WILL BE BELOW ZERO. THIS IS WHERE PRECIP IS MORE OF AN ISSUE
IN THAT THE DRY MID LEVELS WILL LEAVE THE DGZ DRY AND THE STRONG
INVERSION BENEATH THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL TRAP PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS LATE MON NIGHT BEFORE THAT MOISTURE GETS MIXED BY
DAYTIME HEATING TUE. COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE N OF LAKE
MICHIGAN DUE TO SW WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND UPSLOPE FLOW THERE.
AN UPPER TROUGH THEN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING...BRINGING A COOLER
AIRMASS WITH IT. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MODELS HAVE MOVING THROUGH
LATE WED/WED NIGHT IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO TEMPS MAY
NOT GET AS WARM ON WED. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WED.
THU THROUGH NEXT SUN IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. QUESTIONS ABOUT STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE
TROUGH...ALONG WITH PHASING AND HOW MUCH/WHEN PIECES OF ENERGY CAN
EJECT FROM THE TROUGH ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO ANSWER AT THIS POINT. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR MUCH STRONGER SYSTEMS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH INCLUDES POSSIBILITIES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP /EITHER
MIXED PTYPE OR SNOW/. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSER
MONITORING BY THOSE WITH TRAVEL/OUTDOOR INTERESTS AS FORECASTS ARE
REFINED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLDER AIR WILL MOVED INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. USED A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE POOR MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WILL
ALLOW CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR AT TIMES OVER PORTIONS EACH OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
THROUGH 04Z AT IWD AND CMX WHILE KSAW WILL SEE THE SNOWFALL BEGIN
AROUND 00Z AND LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 05Z. THE SNOWFALL HAS BEEN
INTENSE ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DROP VISIBILITY AS
LOW AS 1/2 MILE AT TIMES. AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 05Z WOULD
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE. CEILINGS UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN AROUND
1500FT TO 2500FT WITH A FEW OBS FALLING AS LOW AS 800FT. THIS WOULD
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE TAF SITES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE BIG QUESTION IS...WHETHER OR NOT THEIR IS
ENOUGH HEAT AND MOISTURE COMING OFF THE LAKE TONIGHT TO KEEP LOWER
CEILINGS IN A BIT LONGER. DRY AIR WORKS IN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING
ALLOWING CLOUDS TO BREAK UP FOR EACH TAF SITE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY UNDER 20 KTS WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS. ONE WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. THE SECOND WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR 20 TO 30 KT SE WINDS OVER MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH THE LAKE
ALMOST COMPLETELY ICE COVERED...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FREEZING
SPRAY ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ001-
003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1256 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY THAT INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
MORNING IS LIFTING NORTHWARD. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL
MOISTURE FIELDS WHICH SUPPORTS THAT ALL PRECIPITATION GENERATION IS
OCCURRING UNDER A LOW LEVEL OCCLUSION. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT UP INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE THUMB DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE STRINGING OUT WITH TIME. EXPECT LIGHT
SNOW TO TRANSITION TO FLURRIES BEFORE DISSIPATING THE FIRST HOUR
OR TWO OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOWERING SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP CLOUDS
LIFT AND THIN WITH TIME. SCT TO FEW COVERAGE AT 020 TO 030 IS
EXPECTED BY TOMORROW MORNING.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 941 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
UPDATE...
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS THROUGHOUT ALL
OF THE CWA WITH THE LIGHT SNOW RESPONSE ON KDTX AND NEIGHBORS 0.5
Z STEADILY INCREASING SINCE 8 AM. MECHANISMS FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE
VIRTUALLY NON EXIST ANT IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WHICH MAKES
THINGS PESKY. 12Z KDTX RAOB SHOWS SATURATION THROUGH 9 KFT
AGL...THROUGH -16C. NAM AND RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH MORE
LIMITED IN MOISTURE DEPTH AND LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE RUN TIMES.
THIS POINTS TO THE NWP STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MOISTURE FIELDS AND PROVIDES LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THE NOW TERM.
QUALITATIVELY...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL STRIP OR SHEAR OUT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...PERHAPS EVEN PIVOTING DOWN INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. QUANTITATIVELY...CONVERGENCE VALUES DON/T MATCH BUT THERE
IS LITTLE QUESTION THAT WE ARE DEALING WITH A LOW LEVEL OCCLUDED
FRONTAL TYPE FEATURE. WILL CARRY THE HIGHER POPS INTO NOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR GREATER MOISTURE THAN ADVERTISED AND RELAY TO FLURRIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. BETTER CORRIDOR FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL
EXIST BETWEEN I 94 TO I 69 THROUGH NOON...ALIGNED UNDER
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL THETA E PLUME. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN A NON-ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN
THE MID 20S.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 315 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH
850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...AS PW VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. STILL...WITH WEAKENING LOW EXITING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING...STILL PROBABLY SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (925-850
MB)/CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT A FEW FLURRIES/ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AS MODEST COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH FLARE UP OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BASED ON CURRENT
READINGS AND FACTORING UPSTREAM OBS IN THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. WITH SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS HOLDING UP TONIGHT...NOT
EXPECTING A HUGE DROP OFF IN TEMPS...AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
DEVIATE MUCH FROM LATEST GUIDANCE (SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER TEENS).
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE CONTROLLING LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR MOST OF THIS WINTER SHOWING
SIGNS OF FINALLY BREAKING DOWN...AS DOMINANT CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE STEADILY RETREATS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC. THIS
ADJUSTMENT WILL ALLOW THE MAIN WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER RIDGE/
HIGHER HEIGHTS TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS
PROCESS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF THAT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OF
ARCTIC ORIGIN...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH A RESPITE FROM THE
RELENTLESS INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR BY NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A FULL PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD AN EASTERN
RIDGE/WESTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD SPELL A SIZABLE WARMING TREND TO FINISH THE WEEK
/TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S/.
COLDER START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND WITH LOWER
AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW HOLDING FIRM AT THE EDGE OF SLOWLY
ENCROACHING WESTERN CONUS SHORTWAVE RIDGING. ONGOING COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL EASE ON
SATURDAY. EXISTING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL LEAVE 925 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -13C RANGE. INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL DRYING WITHIN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
WORK TO ERODE ANY MOIST LAYER STILL TUCKED BENEATH A LOWERING
INVERSION. THIS POINTS TOWARD AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE, ALTHOUGH
THE PRESENCE OF THE THERMAL TROUGH SUGGESTS SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU
EXPANSION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL
BE A STRUGGLE REGARDLESS...HIGHS UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S.
ONE FINAL ARCTIC CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW WILL
TRANSLATE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL WINDOW FOR A CLEAR SKY
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS ARRIVES.
FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER SE MICHIGAN WILL
CERTAINLY AID IN THE TEMPERATURE FREEFALL THAT EVENING. WITH THAT
IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS. THE WAVE ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK IMPULSE OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. PV ANALYSIS SUGGESTS JUST
ENOUGH SEPARATION WITH THESE FEATURES TO MAINTAIN A SUPPRESSED
DYNAMIC RESPONSE AS THE LOWER HEIGHT FIELDS WORKS DOWNSTREAM. THE
BROADER UPTICK IN FORCING INTO MODEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
SE MICHIGAN WILL LIE AT THE INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE EXITING
LOWER HEIGHTS AND THE INBOUND SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY, ENSURING ANY
THERMAL ADVECTION REMAINS NEUTRAL AND THE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE
DICTATED BY A GENERAL RISE IN MEAN THICKNESSES. HIGHS 20 TO 25F.
DEEPENING SFC-850 MB SOUTHERLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO AN ELONGATED
CORRIDOR OF HEIGHTS FALLS QUICKLY EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL PROMPT A STEADY NORTHWARD INCREASE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE CORRESPONDING WING OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING.
A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF ASCENT WILL AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE
MAIN VORTICITY CENTER TOWARD MONDAY EVENING, A WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO PROGRESSIVELY DEEPEN ON THE SOUTHERN END AS SOME DEGREE
OF PHASING/MERGING OCCURS WITH THE NORTHERN PV FILAMENT. MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE EXTENT...TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THIS
PROCESS MAINTAINS A HIGHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN DEFINING THE
EXACT DETAILS. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH PRESENT A PERIOD OF STRONG
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AS THE WAVE TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT UPON ARRIVAL.
THIS RETAINS HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR A GOOD SHOT AT PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME. A WARMING THERMAL PROFILE WILL REMAIN SENSITIVE
IN MAGNITUDE TO ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO MASS FIELDS UPSTREAM GOING
FORWARD. A LARGELY ZONAL WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW CAPPING THE LOW
LEVEL ADVECTIVE PROCESS MAY TEND TO CONTAIN THE DEPTH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO SOME DEGREE. A CHECK OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
SOUNDING DATA AND THICKNESSES WOULD LEAVE A LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILE LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW. HOWEVER THIS PROFILE MAY
SHOW SOME COLD BIAS NOW DUE TO THE EXISTING SNOWPACK. THEREFORE
NOT YET INCLINED TO PROVIDE ANY GREATER DEFINITION TO THE PTYPE,
RETAINING A SIMPLISTIC RAIN/SNOW MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CORRIDOR.
MARINE...
A RATHER RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODEST WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A GUSTY SOUTHEAST WIND
WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF STRENGTHEN LOW PRESSURE ON MONDAY.
SUBSTANTIAL ICE COVERAGE ACROSS ALL MARINE AREAS WILL KEEP WAVES
ABSENT FROM ALL FORECAST PRODUCTS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
UPDATE.......CB
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
941 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS THROUGHOUT ALL
OF THE CWA WITH THE LIGHT SNOW RESPONSE ON KDTX AND NEIGHBORS 0.5
Z STEADILY INCREASING SINCE 8 AM. MECHANISMS FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE
VIRTUALLY NON EXIST ANT IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WHICH MAKES
THINGS PESKY. 12Z KDTX RAOB SHOWS SATURATION THROUGH 9 KFT
AGL...THROUGH -16C. NAM AND RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH MORE
LIMITED IN MOISTURE DEPTH AND LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE RUN TIMES.
THIS POINTS TO THE NWP STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MOISTURE FIELDS AND PROVIDES LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THE NOW TERM.
QUALITATIVELY...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL STRIP OR SHEAR OUT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...PERHAPS EVEN PIVOTING DOWN INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. QUANTITATIVELY...CONVERGENCE VALUES DON/T MATCH BUT THERE
IS LITTLE QUESTION THAT WE ARE DEALING WITH A LOW LEVEL OCCLUDED
FRONTAL TYPE FEATURE. WILL CARRY THE HIGHER POPS INTO NOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR GREATER MOISTURE THAN ADVERTISED AND RELAY TO FLURRIES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. BETTER CORRIDOR FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL
EXIST BETWEEN I 94 TO I 69 THROUGH NOON...ALIGNED UNDER
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL THETA E PLUME. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN A NON-ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN
THE MID 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 649 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
//DISCUSSION...
WESTERLY WINDS (10-20 KNOTS) AND ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION THIS
MORNING SHOULD ASSURE MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING. DIURNAL EFFECTS AND
SUBTLE DRYING WILL TEND TO LIFT CEILINGS...POTENTIALLY CLIMBING INTO
LOW VFR. FLURRIES/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE AROUND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON (BUT COVERAGE/TIMING CONCERNS PRECLUDES MENTION IN
TAFS). MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS WINDS
COME OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 315 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH
850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...AS PW VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. STILL...WITH WEAKENING LOW EXITING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING...STILL PROBABLY SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (925-850
MB)/CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT A FEW FLURRIES/ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AS MODEST COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH FLARE UP OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BASED ON CURRENT
READINGS AND FACTORING UPSTREAM OBS IN THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. WITH SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS HOLDING UP TONIGHT...NOT
EXPECTING A HUGE DROP OFF IN TEMPS...AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
DEVIATE MUCH FROM LATEST GUIDANCE (SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER TEENS).
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE CONTROLLING LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR MOST OF THIS WINTER SHOWING
SIGNS OF FINALLY BREAKING DOWN...AS DOMINANT CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW
PRESSURE STEADILY RETREATS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC. THIS
ADJUSTMENT WILL ALLOW THE MAIN WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER RIDGE/
HIGHER HEIGHTS TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS
PROCESS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF THAT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OF
ARCTIC ORIGIN...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH A RESPITE FROM THE
RELENTLESS INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR BY NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A FULL PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD AN EASTERN
RIDGE/WESTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD SPELL A SIZABLE WARMING TREND TO FINISH THE WEEK
/TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S/.
COLDER START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND WITH LOWER
AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW HOLDING FIRM AT THE EDGE OF SLOWLY
ENCROACHING WESTERN CONUS SHORTWAVE RIDGING. ONGOING COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL EASE ON
SATURDAY. EXISTING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL LEAVE 925 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -13C RANGE. INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL DRYING WITHIN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
WORK TO ERODE ANY MOIST LAYER STILL TUCKED BENEATH A LOWERING
INVERSION. THIS POINTS TOWARD AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE, ALTHOUGH
THE PRESENCE OF THE THERMAL TROUGH SUGGESTS SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU
EXPANSION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL
BE A STRUGGLE REGARDLESS...HIGHS UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S.
ONE FINAL ARCTIC CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW WILL
TRANSLATE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL WINDOW FOR A CLEAR SKY
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS ARRIVES.
FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER SE MICHIGAN WILL
CERTAINLY AID IN THE TEMPERATURE FREEFALL THAT EVENING. WITH THAT
IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS. THE WAVE ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK IMPULSE OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. PV ANALYSIS SUGGESTS JUST
ENOUGH SEPARATION WITH THESE FEATURES TO MAINTAIN A SUPPRESSED
DYNAMIC RESPONSE AS THE LOWER HEIGHT FIELDS WORKS DOWNSTREAM. THE
BROADER UPTICK IN FORCING INTO MODEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
SE MICHIGAN WILL LIE AT THE INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE EXITING
LOWER HEIGHTS AND THE INBOUND SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY, ENSURING ANY
THERMAL ADVECTION REMAINS NEUTRAL AND THE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE
DICTATED BY A GENERAL RISE IN MEAN THICKNESSES. HIGHS 20 TO 25F.
DEEPENING SFC-850 MB SOUTHERLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO AN ELONGATED
CORRIDOR OF HEIGHTS FALLS QUICKLY EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL PROMPT A STEADY NORTHWARD INCREASE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE CORRESPONDING WING OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING.
A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF ASCENT WILL AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE
MAIN VORTICITY CENTER TOWARD MONDAY EVENING, A WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO PROGRESSIVELY DEEPEN ON THE SOUTHERN END AS SOME DEGREE
OF PHASING/MERGING OCCURS WITH THE NORTHERN PV FILAMENT. MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE EXTENT...TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THIS
PROCESS MAINTAINS A HIGHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN DEFINING THE
EXACT DETAILS. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH PRESENT A PERIOD OF STRONG
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AS THE WAVE TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT UPON ARRIVAL.
THIS RETAINS HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR A GOOD SHOT AT PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME. A WARMING THERMAL PROFILE WILL REMAIN SENSITIVE
IN MAGNITUDE TO ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO MASS FIELDS UPSTREAM GOING
FORWARD. A LARGELY ZONAL WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW CAPPING THE LOW
LEVEL ADVECTIVE PROCESS MAY TEND TO CONTAIN THE DEPTH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO SOME DEGREE. A CHECK OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
SOUNDING DATA AND THICKNESSES WOULD LEAVE A LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILE LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW. HOWEVER THIS PROFILE MAY
SHOW SOME COLD BIAS NOW DUE TO THE EXISTING SNOWPACK. THEREFORE
NOT YET INCLINED TO PROVIDE ANY GREATER DEFINITION TO THE PTYPE,
RETAINING A SIMPLISTIC RAIN/SNOW MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CORRIDOR.
MARINE...
A RATHER RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODEST WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A GUSTY SOUTHEAST WIND
WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF STRENGTHEN LOW PRESSURE ON MONDAY.
SUBSTANTIAL ICE COVERAGE ACROSS ALL MARINE AREAS WILL KEEP WAVES
ABSENT FROM ALL FORECAST PRODUCTS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1135 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA
AT THE CURRENT TIME. A DECENT AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND DPVA
AHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A BAND OF
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW... WHICH IS JUST CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IS ALSO PRESENT... WITH SOME COUPLING WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
APPARENT IN CROSS-SECTIONS FROM THE RAP AND NAM. LUCKILY IT IS
MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY AND GENERALLY AVOIDING OUR AREA... AND
SHOULD ONLY WARRANT SOME LOW POPS AT THE VERY START OF THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE TODAY... ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
QUICKLY MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ALONG A SIMILAR PATH
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THAT FEATURE IS JUST PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIDGE AT THE CURRENT TIME... AND LOOKS TO BE A
BIT MORE POTENT THAN THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. HOWEVER... ITS IMPACTS STILL APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WILL BE
FELT ON SATURDAY. SO... FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER WAVE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA REASONABLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORK INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER TODAY AND THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH OF A NORTHWEST WIND TO KEEP WIND CHILLS NEAR OR A BIT BELOW
ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD DROP QUICKLY
DURING THE EVENING... WITH SOME RECOVERY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION START TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWFA. AT THIS POINT... IT
LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH DURING THE EVENING FOR MSP TO
GET ANOTHER BELOW ZERO DAY... AND TIMING COULD ACTUALLY PROVIDE A
2-FOR-1 WITH THINGS PERHAPS DIPPING BELOW ZERO PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT
AND REMAINING THAT WAY FOR A WHILE AFTERWARD... ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BE A CLOSE CALL. KEPT POPS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THAT COULD ALSO BE A CLOSE CALL... WITH THINGS QUICKLY
MOVING INTO THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014
SNOW ENSUES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AMOUNTS STILL
LOOKS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH A TYPICAL ALBERTA CLIPPER...WITH
WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 2.5 INCH TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH SOUTHERN MN SEEING THE AMOUNTS ON THE HIGHER END OF
THAT RANGE POSSIBLY INCHING ABOVE THE 3 INCH MARK. AS DENDRITIC
LAYER MOISTURE IS LOST TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT...COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT THIS WOULD BE MINIMAL AND
PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN MN.
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES ATTEMPT TO MARRY OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARMER WITH THIS EVENT...SO MIXED
PRECIP IS A POSSIBILITY.
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THEN BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHICH WILL MEAN THE CONTINUANCE
OF MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014
SKC CONDS TO INITIALIZE ALL TAFS...BUT CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY STREAM
IN FROM THE SW THIS EVENING THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GRADUALLY
INCRG COVERAGE AND LOWERING TO MIDLVL DECKS BY DAYBREAK SAT MRNG.
NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO CROSS SD INTO SRN MN DURG THE DAY
TMRW...SO THIS IS REFLECTED IN ALL TAF SITES /EXCEPT KEAU/ BY
BRINGING IN PERIOD OF -SN. HAVE STARTED ALL -SN AS MVFR BUT WITH A
SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...SOME IFR VSBY MAY WELL DEVELOP IN HEAVIER BANDS. AS
FOR KEAU...-SN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z SO IT IS BEYOND
THIS PERIOD BUT LATER TAFS MAY WELL INCLUDE -SN THERE. WINDS THRU
THE DAY TDA WILL BE NW CLOSE TO 10 KT THEN DROP TO LGT/VRBL TNGT
AS A HIGH PRES CENTER MOVES ACRS. WINDS THEN RESUME FROM THE SE
DURG THE DAY TMRW IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
KMSP...VFR TO START AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN MIDLVL
DECKS FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS DEVELOP DURG THE DAY TMRW. CAN ALSO
XPCT A SEVERAL-HOUR WINDOW DURG THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TMRW WHERE
-SN WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA. MAINLY LOOKING FOR MVFR ATTM...BUT
IFR CONDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. START TIME CAN ALSO VARY BY A
COUPLE HOURS EITHER WAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KMSP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...MVFR CIGS XPCTD EARLY...MVFR VSBY PSBL WITH CHC -SN. N
WIND 5-10 KT.
SUN...MVFR CIGS PSBL. VRBL WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BCMG SE 5-15 KT.
SUN NIGHT...MVFR CONDS XPCTD WITH CHC -SN. SE WIND 10-20 KT.
MON...MVFR CONDS PSBL EARLY WITH A CHC -SN. S WIND 5-15 KT BCMG
SW.
MON NIGHT...VFR. SW WIND 10-20 KT.
TUE...VFR. WEST WIND 10-20 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
445 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA
AT THE CURRENT TIME. A DECENT AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND DPVA AHEAD
AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW... WHICH IS JUST CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO PRESENT...
WITH SOME COUPLING WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS APPARENT IN
CROSS-SECTIONS FROM THE RAP AND NAM. LUCKILY IT IS MOVING THROUGH
QUICKLY AND GENERALLY AVOIDING OUR AREA... AND SHOULD ONLY WARRANT
SOME LOW POPS AT THE VERY START OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
FEATURE TODAY... ALTHOUGH ANOTHER QUICKLY MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ALONG A SIMILAR PATH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THAT
FEATURE IS JUST PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIDGE AT THE
CURRENT TIME... AND LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE POTENT THAN THE SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER... ITS IMPACTS STILL
APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WILL BE FELT ON SATURDAY. SO... FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT... THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER WAVE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA REASONABLY
QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORK INTO
THE AREA. HOWEVER... CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER TODAY AND THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OF A NORTHWEST WIND TO KEEP WIND CHILLS NEAR OR A BIT
BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD DROP QUICKLY
DURING THE EVENING... WITH SOME RECOVERY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION START TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWFA. AT THIS POINT... IT LOOKS
LIKE THINGS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH DURING THE EVENING FOR MSP TO GET
ANOTHER BELOW ZERO DAY... AND TIMING COULD ACTUALLY PROVIDE A
2-FOR-1 WITH THINGS PERHAPS DIPPING BELOW ZERO PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND
REMAINING THAT WAY FOR A WHILE AFTERWARD... ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A
CLOSE CALL. KEPT POPS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH
THAT COULD ALSO BE A CLOSE CALL... WITH THINGS QUICKLY MOVING INTO
THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014
SNOW ENSUES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AMOUNTS STILL
LOOKS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH A TYPICAL ALBERTA CLIPPER...WITH
WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 2.5 INCH TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH SOUTHERN MN SEEING THE AMOUNTS ON THE HIGHER END OF
THAT RANGE POSSIBLY INCHING ABOVE THE 3 INCH MARK. AS DENDRITIC
LAYER MOISTURE IS LOST TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT...COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT THIS WOULD BE MINIMAL AND
PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN MN.
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES ATTEMPT TO MARRY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARMER WITH THIS EVENT...SO MIXED PRECIP IS A
POSSIBILITY.
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THEN BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHICH WILL MEAN THE CONTINUANCE
OF MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014
SYSTEM CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MID MORNING... BUT THINGS SHOULD STAY
VFR WITH RESPECT TO WHAT IT PRODUCES OVER OUR AREA. HOWEVER...
SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH PATCHY
SUB 2K FT CEILINGS SLIPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. INCLUDED SOME SCT020 AT KMSP AND A TEMPO
CEILING FOR KSTC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS. THE RAP AND NAM BOTH
PICK UP ON THIS REASONABLY WELL IN THEIR RH FIELDS... AND SUGGEST
IT SHOULD WANE AS IT DROPS SOUTH. KEAU WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
OF THE SAME... WITH THE MORE EXTENSIVE CEILINGS JUST EAST OF
THERE. OTHERWISE... WE WILL GENERALLY SEE QUIET CONDITIONS TODAY
AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE... WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY... MAINLY AFTER 18Z. DID INCLUDE SOME LIGHT
SNOW AT KMSP RIGHT AT THE TAIL END OF THINGS... SINCE TIMING
BRINGS IT INTO THE AREA RIGHT AROUND 18Z.
KMSP...MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF
CEILINGS AROUND 2K FT AGL DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST... THEN WITH THE TIMING OF LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ON SATURDAY AS LIGHT SNOW WORKS INTO THE AREA. TIMING
ON SATURDAY COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN INDICATED...
ALTHOUGH THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING IN PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS. THERE ARE ALSO SOME VFR CEILINGS AROUND 6K FT AGL OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH MODELS SUGGEST WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY DROP
SOUTH... BUT IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER THEY WOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH
SNOW... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KT
BECOMING NORTHEAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED EARLY... MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. NORTH WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 KT BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
414 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA
AT THE CURRENT TIME. A DECENT AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND DPVA AHEAD
AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW... WHICH IS JUST CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO PRESENT...
WITH SOME COUPLING WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS APPARENT IN
CROSS-SECTIONS FROM THE RAP AND NAM. LUCKILY IT IS MOVING THROUGH
QUICKLY AND GENERALLY AVOIDING OUR AREA... AND SHOULD ONLY WARRANT
SOME LOW POPS AT THE VERY START OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
FEATURE TODAY... ALTHOUGH ANOTHER QUICKLY MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ALONG A SIMILAR PATH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THAT
FEATURE IS JUST PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIDGE AT THE
CURRENT TIME... AND LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE POTENT THAN THE SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER... ITS IMPACTS STILL
APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WILL BE FELT ON SATURDAY. SO... FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT... THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER WAVE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA REASONABLY
QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORK INTO
THE AREA. HOWEVER... CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER TODAY AND THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH OF A NORTHWEST WIND TO KEEP WIND CHILLS NEAR OR A BIT
BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD DROP QUICKLY
DURING THE EVENING... WITH SOME RECOVERY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION START TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWFA. AT THIS POINT... IT LOOKS
LIKE THINGS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH DURING THE EVENING FOR MSP TO GET
ANOTHER BELOW ZERO DAY... AND TIMING COULD ACTUALLY PROVIDE A
2-FOR-1 WITH THINGS PERHAPS DIPPING BELOW ZERO PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND
REMAINING THAT WAY FOR A WHILE AFTERWARD... ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A
CLOSE CALL. KEPT POPS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH
THAT COULD ALSO BE A CLOSE CALL... WITH THINGS QUICKLY MOVING INTO
THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014
SNOW ENSUES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AMOUNTS STILL
LOOKS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH A TYPICAL ALBERTA CLIPPER...WITH
WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 2.5 INCH TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH SOUTHERN MN SEEING THE AMOUNTS ON THE HIGHER END OF
THAT RANGE POSSIBLY INCHING ABOVE THE 3 INCH MARK. AS DENDRITIC
LAYER MOISTURE IS LOST TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT...COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT THIS WOULD BE MINIMAL AND
PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN MN.
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES ATTEMPT TO MARRY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARMER WITH THIS EVENT...SO MIXED PRECIP IS A
POSSIBILITY.
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THEN BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHICH WILL MEAN THE CONTINUANCE
OF MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014
ALL SITES VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. BKN MIDLVL DECKS WILL TRY
TO MOVE IN FROM THE W...MAINLY AFFECTING KRWF-KAXN-KSTC BY
PRODUCING CEILINGS...BUT CIGS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SHIFTING EWD
INTO ERN MN AND WRN WI SO HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY SCT COVERAGE FOR
KMSP EWD. ALL SITES THEN SCATTER OUT DURG THE DAY TMRW AND REMAIN
THERE THRU FRI EVE. ADDITIONAL MIDLVL CEILINGS MAY WELL DEVELOP TMRW
EVE BUT AM GOING A MORE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE ATTM AND KEPT ALL SITES
AS SCT THRU 06Z /WITH THE LATTER 6 HRS IN THE KMSP TAF GOING BKN
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z/. WINDS TO REMAIN NW 5-10KT TNGT THRU TMRW BEFORE
GOING LGT/VRBL TMRW EVE.
KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH ONLY SCT COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AT BEST
THRU TMRW EVE THEN BKN UPR LVL CIGS LIKELY GOING INTO SAT MRNG.
MID-TO-UPR LVL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT WITH NO PRECIP. WINDS MAINLY
310-330 WITHIN 5-10KT OVERNIGHT THRU THE DAY TMRW...THEN SLIGHTLY
BACKING TO NEAR DUE W WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS FRI EVE FOLLOWED BY
LGT/VRBL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR AND -SN WITH OCNL IFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NE 5 KT BCMG SE 10-15 KT.
MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SN. WINDS SW 10 KT BCMG W.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1151 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 758 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014
We are watching the 00 UTC NAM come in...with the 00 UTC RAP
already in. It appears that the going forecast is pretty much on
track. One minor tweak we did make is to extend the sleet mention
to the remainder of the area from late tonight into early Friday
morning. Regional RAOBS are awfully dry this evening...thus wet-
bulb sleet appears in play. Additionally, the RAP and NAM are
bringing elevated instability into western Missouri early Friday
morning. This may result in convective elements in the form of
sleet/graupel. While we`re not ready to insert a thunder mention
at this point, a rumble or two wouldn`t be a huge surprise.
One other point we want to re-emphasize with this system is that
despite the dry air currently in place, lift will drastically
increase starting late tonight and will likely compensate for the
lack of moisture. Isentropic plots indicate strong pressure
advection in the 290-295 K potential temperature layer. Meanwhile,
an approaching PV anomaly (in conjunction with digging short wave
energy) and the left-forward quadrant of an upper level jet streak
will ramp up mid/upper level tropospheric lift. With that being
said, we are going to nudge PoPs up late tonight and early Friday
morning across extreme southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 305 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014
Beautiful day observed across the region. Under a mainly sunny
sky, temperatures have warmed well into the 40s, with a few 50s
reported across southwestern Missouri and southeastern Kansas.
Looking at visible satellite imagery, we have done a number on our
remaining snow cover. Only areas left with appreciable snow cover
include far northern Benton/Morgan/Miller, northwestern Bourbon
(Kansas) and portions of Howell, Oregon and southern Shannon.
Mid/high level moisture will gradually increase this evening into
the overnight hours ahead of a fast moving, but rather potent
shortwave trough that will approach from the northwest late
tonight, moving through the area Friday morning. Moisture
availability will be limited, though the system itself will bring
enough moisture with it to bring a risk of precipitation. PV
anomaly with this wave is rather strong, thus lift will not be an
issue. The window of opportunity for lift will be pretty narrow,
beginning after 3 AM and lasting until around noon.
12z suite of short range model output is in decent agreement with
producing two primary bands of precipitation associated with a
developing area of surface low pressure that will move
northwest/southeast across the state. The first area of
precipitation looks to just clip our central Missouri counties.
The GEM remains the most bullish with QPF (and it`s also the
furthest to the southwest with this band of precipitation). The
NAM is the most bearish with little in the way of QPF being
produced. Consensus dictates that this band of snow will more
likely target areas to our northeast. Nevertheless, there should
be enough moisture and lift present to produce light snow
beginning late tonight with a dusting of less than one inch
possible by mid morning Friday. Will need to watch the near term
models for any shift in the location of this band of snow.
The second band/area of precipitation looks to develop overhead
toward daybreak Friday and more so into the daylight hours of
Friday morning. Again, this will be fast moving, thus any
precipitation will be quite light and end rather quickly. Thermal
profiles across most of the area will support light rain. The only
exceptions will once again be central Missouri and then areas of
the eastern Ozarks along/east of the Highway 63 corridor. In this
area, a mix of light freezing rain/sleet/snow will be possible
until late morning when temperatures will slowly rise above
freezing. A dusting of accumulation and patchy ice accumulation
is possible for areas along/east of the Highway 63 corridor,
though it does not look to be a widespread issue. Will need to
watch the near term models to see if there will be any change to
the expected thermal profiles and surface temperatures Friday
morning.
Quiet and seasonable weather conditions are expected from Friday
night through Saturday night.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014
Overnight lows will see some significant warming after Friday
night. Lows Friday night will fall into the lower 20s with
overnight lows by Sunday morning only falling into the lower 40s.
Despite a modified northwesterly upper level flow, surface high
pressure, plenty of sunshine and southerly surface winds will
allow temperatures to continue on a warning trend through the
weekend and into next week. Afternoon highs will be in the upper
40s across central Missouri to near 60 near the Oklahoma border
through the weekend with nearly all locations across the Ozarks in
the 60s for the beginning of next week.
A weak cold front will move through the plains and bring the
chance for some light showers on Monday with Tuesday morning lows
around the freezing mark. A warm front will then lift north
through the region late Wednesday into Thursday with the potential
for some scattered thunderstorms by Thursday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014
An upper level storm system will bring lowering ceilings into
Friday morning along with low level wind shear. Scattered rain
showers are also expected to develop along with pockets of sleet
Friday morning. We have covered this in a TEMPO group due to the
expected scattered nature. A cold front will then move through
southern Missouri later Friday morning with brisk and gusty
northwest winds developing behind this feature. Indications are
that a period of MVFR ceilings will also spread over the region
Friday afternoon and early evening.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1251 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY MORNING. A
SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AS THESE
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REFLECT REALITY.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EXPECT SNOW TO
CONTINUE AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS GOOD.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
330 PM UPDATE... WE`VE EXPANDED WINTER STM WARNINGS ACRS NRN PTNS
OF THE CWA...BASICALLY BACK WESTWARD TO ABT THE I-81 CORRIDOR.
WARNINGS NOW EXTEND ALG AND E OF A LN FROM ONONDAGA-CORTLAND-
BROOME-SUSQ-WYOMING-LUZERNE CNTYS...WITH ADVSYS W OF THIS LN THRU
THE FINGER LKS AND CNTRL SRN TIER RGNS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPR AIR/MESO-ANALYSIS DATA DEPICT A
DEEPENING AND CLOSED 700-500 MB LOW OVER VA ATTM...LIFTING
NEWD...WITH AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS/INCREASING RADAR
COVERAGE ACRS ERN WV/VA. IN THE MEANTIME...A WELL DEFINED NARROW
SNOW BAND EXTENDS FROM CNTRL PA...NEWD TO KBGM...TO JUST S OF
KALY...AND INTO CNTRL NEW ENG. THE 13-KM RUC MODEL HAS BEEN
HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF EACH OF THESE FEATURES WELL SO FAR
TDY...AND WE`VE LEANED HEAVILY ON ITS OUTPUT GOING FORWARD...WITH
SOME SUPPORT NOW INDICATED FROM THE 12Z EC...CANADIAN...AND LOCAL
WRF MODELS.
WE EXPECT THE MAIN SNOW BAND OVER CNY ATTM TO SLOW ITS WWD
PROGRESS THROUGH THIS EVE AND BROADEN OUT...IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE CLOSED MID TO UPPER-LVL LOW FROM THE S. A NARROW
BAND OF FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO DVLP THIS EVE (00-06Z)
UNDERNEATH STG MID-LYR FGEN FORCING...ON THE NRN/WRN SIDES OF THE
700-500 MB LOW. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FUTURE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...THE MOST LIKELY POSITION IS JUST
E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR (FROM NE PA INTO ERN BROOME/ERN CHENANGO
CNTYS...AND THE WRN CATSKILLS). AS THE CLOSED MID-UPR LVL
CIRCULATION LIFTS FURTHER INTO NEW ENG AFTER 06Z...THE
STEADIEST/HVYST SNOWFALL SHOULD EXIT THE RGN FROM SW TO NE. BY
ARND DAYBREAK...THIS EVENT SHOULD BE OVER FOR OUR CWA.
ON FRI...A NRN STREAM S/WV...SEEN ON SAT IMAGERY OVER UPR MI/NRN
WI ATTM...IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACRS THE RGN. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
WILL ACT AS A "KICKER" TO MOVE OUR PRESENT STORM FURTHER AWAY INTO
THE N ATLANTIC...IT WILL ALSO HELP BRING SOME LIGHTER SNOW
SHWRS/FLRYS BACK OVER CNY/NE PA...WITH AREAS SE OF LK ONT SEEING
A BIT OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT...WITHIN NWLY LOW-LVL FLOW. ANY ADDTNL
SNOWFALL AMTS ON FRI SHOULD BE LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...ONE FRI NGT/SAT
MRNG AND ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY. MAY SEE MINOR ACCUMS ACRS NE PA ON
SAT NGT. LAKE RESPONSE BEHIND THESE CLIPPERS PER FCST PROFILES SUGGESTS
WEAK/MINOR LES EVENTS. GIVEN TDA`S FOCUS ON SHORT TERM...WILL
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS POTNL WITH LATER FCSTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LOWER HEIGHTS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A BROADENING OF THE FLOW
TO QUASI-ZONAL ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. THIS SUGGESTS A
GRADUAL WARM UP WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE WEEK WITH RATHER RAPID
TRANSITING SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. A COUPLE QUICK HITTING
FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MON NITE-TUES AND THEN
AGAIN THURS NITE-FRI TIME PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW...WITH A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN EVENT POSSIBLE WITH THE
LATTER SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 40S THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE
EAST. THE WX SYSTEMS WILL BE MINOR...BUT THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RIPEN AND MELT A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK WITH AREA RIVERS RESPONDING TO THE RUNOFF.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT
TERMINALS WITH WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. AT KSYR,
CONDITIONS WILL OCCASIONALLY FALL BELOW ALT MIN THROUGH 08Z. AFTER
09Z, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO JUST MVFR AS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS EAST OF REGION. AFTER
12Z, RESTRICTIONS WILL JUST BE DUE TO CIGS WITH MVFR/LOW VFR
EXPECTED. LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY
AFTER SUNRISE. TONIGHT, W/SW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT/SUN...VARIABLE MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
SUN NGT...VFR.
MON...BECOMING MVFR. CHC WINTRY MIX.
TUE...VFR/MVFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ039-
040-043-044-047-048-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ015>017-022>025-055.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
938 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
THE FORECAST IS BASICALLY ON TRACK. CLOUDS HAVE BACKED TO THE
VALLEY. THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE 925MB-850MB RH HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE SITUATION...AND WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SKY FORECAST. THE
CURRENT CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY OR MOVE SLIGHTLY WEST OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE. NOT SURE THIS WILL
HAVE ANY AFFECT ON MIN TEMPS (JUST HOURLY TEMPS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS)...AND WILL RIDE WITH THE CURRENT TEMP FORECAST.
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN SIMILAR
WITH PAST MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...THE 21Z SREF HAS COME IN WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
A BAND OF NEAR 6 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
FACT THERE WILL BE A UPPER JET STREAK...NOSE OF A 40-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET...AND WEAK TO MODERATE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS. THE ONLY
PROBLEM IS THAT MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE DEPICTING EXACTLY
WHERE THIS RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
LOCATED. WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATED SNOW TOTAL MAP ON FACEBOOK...BUT
ONLY MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR 6 INCH AMOUNTS. OVERALL IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY EAST OF THE VALLEY. WILL ALSO NEED TO
CONTINUE AND MONITOR WIND POTENTIAL WITHIN THE VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL (ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK AREA).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED THROUGH THE FCST AREA ATTM WITH NORTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH TO
NEARLY FARGO. EXPECT CLEARING TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AS COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN BY 12Z SUN. WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPS AND
SKY COVER TONIGHT. ATTM EXPECT A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO DVL BASIN ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS. THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA MAY HANG ON TO
SOME THIN STRATOCU AND THUS CONTINUED IDEA OF A BIT WARMER THERE.
NEXT SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE TODAY IN THE PAC NORTHWEST. EXPECT A
SHARP 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG 850 MB WARM ADVECTION PRECEDING IT. ENOUGH FORCING AND
MOISTURE TO GENERATE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DROPPING A
QUICK 1-3 INCHES RRV AND WEST AND 3-4 EAST OF THE RRV. ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SYSTEM OVER MINNESOTA FCST AREA IF AMOUNTS
REMAIN AS FCST. BUT SINCE EVENT IS PAST 00Z MON TOO EARLY TO DO
SO. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 KTS AND THIS WILL
CAUSE SOME BLSN ISSUES...BUT BLSN 1/2SM TOOL GIVES LOW
PERCENTAGES. BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN IN MANY CASES WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR AN OVER-PERFORMING WIND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
SNOW WILL END IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AS WARMER 925-850 MB AIRMASS MOVES IN.
DESPITE DEEP SNOWCOVER EXPECT DECENT SUN AND GIVEN TIME OF YEAR
HIGHS IN THE 30S SHOULD BE REASONABLE...NR 40 IN THE SOUTHWEST AS
OFTEN THESE WEST WINDS OVER ACHIEVE. THOUGH WOULD LIKE TO SEE 925
MB TEMPS A BIT WARMER...AS IT IS PROGGED TO PEAK 0C IN THE NORTH
AND 4C IN THE SOUTH.
MILD AIRMASS REMAINS INTO MON NIGHT-TUESDAY THOUGH 925 MB TEMPS
COOL A BIT TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH AND WINDS
TURN MORE NORTHWEST. COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP IN LAKE OF
THE WOODS REGION.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. ZONAL PATTERN FORECAST TO AMPLIFY. GFS
WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
BEEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS.
WILL TRIM BACK POPS IN THE EAST ON WED. ALSO WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON
FRI NIGHT AND SAT. RESPECTABLE WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THU .
INSIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS SINCE THE LAST RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
EAST OF THE VALLEY...MVFR CIGS REMAIN...AND HAVE MOVED BACK INTO
THE VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE WHICH HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON 925MB-850MB RH...EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/DK
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1045 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS US TONIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. A THIRD SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EST SATURDAY...
DECENT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
EVENING WILL BE FAST MOVING AND THERE IS ANOTHER MID LEVEL VORT
TRACKING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF TN WHICH IS BRINGING LIGHT
SNOW TO KNOXVILLE AND CROSSVILLE. THE 01Z HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS
WELL AND TAKES IT EAST INTO THE NC MTNS/FAR SW VA BY 4 AM...AND
WEAKENING IT. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WITH THE CLIPPER WILL TACK INTO
NRN TN BY THIS TIME AND ACROSS SRN NC SUNDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE
MODELS CONSISTENCY IN PATH OF THE VORT WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC/VA TOMORROW MORNING...BUT EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF BCB/ROA...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
FLURRIES FURTHER SOUTH. THINKING DOWNSLOPE AND FAST MOVEMENT WILL
LIMIT SNOWFALL. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED AS IT HEADS THIS WAY BY
MORNING.
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
INTO FAR SW VA...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING OVER THE VA PIEDMONT
AND ACROSS NC...WITH LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP ACROSS THE MTNS OF WV
INTO THE ALLEGHANYS OF BATH AND ALLEGHANY COUNTY.
FORECAST TEMPS WERE ON TRACK SO NOT MANY CHANGES THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...
SHORT WAVE STARTS OUT IN EASTERN TENNESSEE SUNDAY MORNING THEN WILL
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE
SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING MID ATLANTIC REGION IS UNDER A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE. STILL EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORT WAVE REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY/7PM MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE
WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE BY MONDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS IT OVER
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WHILE THE NAM HAS IS IN NORTHERN OHIO. EITHER
WAY...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
WHICH WILL ADD TO THE LIFT OVER THE AREA.
LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES SPARSE ENOUGH...EVEN IN THE
TYPICAL WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY.
STRONG 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ON MONDAY BUT SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE DO NOT ARRIVE BACK IN THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES BY MONDAY
NIGHT.
BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...850 MB SHOULD BE AROUND +7. SURFACE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY. WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...
WILL START WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS
REGION...WHILE A STALLED COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE NIGHT...
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY MORNING...HELPING THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING...OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...ONLY TO STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF FEBRUARY. EXPECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE TEMPERATURES REACH
INTO THE LOW 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE
3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER STILL. RIDGE TOPS WILL REMAIN WARMER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
AND THE PIEDMONT DECOUPLE FROM THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
BECOME COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST SATURDAY...
TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR INTO THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR
CIGS AT BLF...POTENTIALLY LWB. FOCUS ON NEXT UPSTREAM CLIPPER AND
ALREADY SEEING CLOUDS OVERSPREADING ERN KY/WV...MAINLY MID/HIGH
VARIETY ALTHOUGH SOME CIGS ARE BELOW 3KFT IN THE OHIO VALLEY/KY.
WILL SEE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AND COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS
RUN BACK INTO LWB/BLF AFTER A BRIEF LIFT TO VFR THIS
EVENING...AFTER 06Z. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN AT LEAST BLF CIGS
DROPPING BACK TO MVFR AFTER 06Z.
THE THREAT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEMS IS LOWER...BUT COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN BLF/LWB SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANY CIGS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP BEHIND THIS CLIPPER SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
MONDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE WEATHER PATTERN
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND FAVORING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MID
WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AT LEAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES THIS PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS/WP
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
841 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
.UPDATE...
AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
INTENSITY OF THE SNOW HAS WEAKENED AS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES INTO
EASTERN AREAS. SNOW ACCUMS HAVE BEEN WELL BEHAVED...REMAINING AT
ABOUT 1/2 INCH OR LESS. WE/VE HAD A DUSTING HERE AT THE OFFICE IN
SOUTHEAST JEFFERSON COUNTY. THE CURRENT PRECIP LINES UP PRETTY
WELL WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND STILL EXPECT MOST OF THIS SNOW TO BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES
LINGER IN THE FAR EAST FOR A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
SNOW WILL EXIT THE MADISON AREA BY 06Z...WITH FLURRIES LIKELY
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA. ANY ACCUMS APPEAR TO BE
HOLDING UNDER 1/2 INCH. THERE IS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FIELD OF MVFR
CIGS STRETCHING BACK NORTHWEST ACROSS MN. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS STILL
CLEAR THIS OUT OF THE MADISON AREA AROUND MID DAY ON SUNDAY AND
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MILWAUKEE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING IN VERY QUICKLY THAT SOME OF THIS STRATUS
MAY GET HUNG UP UNDER THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL INVERSION. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CLEARING TREND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BUT...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT HANG UP A BIT LONGER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM IOWA. MEANWHILE
SECONDARY WAVE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GRAZES NE CWA
THROUGH 6Z. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING BETTER UPPER
JET RELATED FORCING LARGELY TO OUR SOUTH. DEF ZONE SNOWS PROGGD
MORE TO OUR NORTH. AS THE ELONGATED NORTH/SOUTH BAND CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST IT WILL BE AIDED BY DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION OF THE SHORTWAVE. MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS SHOWING A SPLIT
WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO LEAVING SRN WI WITH A RELATIVE MIN BETWEEN
THE BEST FORCING. EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS. SOME WEAK SURFACE/850
TROUGHING MAY KEEP A FEW SHSN OR FLURRIES GOING IN THE EAST AFTER
6Z. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT WITH WEAK
COLD ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS KEEP CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS EARLY THEN SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES
SHIFT EAST WITH WEAK 850 WARM AIR ADVECTION. MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BECOMES DOMINANT. DECENT DAY SHAPING UP. 925
THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. 925 TEMPS IN THE -9 TO -12C
RANGE...SO LOW TO MID 20S LOOK TO BE PREVALENT BASED ON
ANTICIPATED MIXING.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
TO HIGH
AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z MON AND THEN CONTINUE ACROSS IL
ON MON. THE MODELS DIFFERS ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF
CYCLOGENESIS BUT EITHER WAY WE WILL SEE AN IMPRESSIVE ROUND OF
DEEP WARM..MOIST ADVECTION AND PVA MON AM. THE FAST SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD KEEP SNOW ACCUMS IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE...AND BELOW WINTER
STORM WARNING CRITERIA EVEN IF THE CYCLOGENESIS BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE IN ENHANCING THE LIFT. A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY.
ZONAL FLOW TO FOLLOW FOR MON NT AND TUE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SFC FLOW MOVING EWD ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THIS BRINGS SWLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION TO THE
REGION LATE MON NT AND TUE. THIS SHOULD BOOST HIGH TEMPS TO MID TO
UPPER 30S FOR TUE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH LATE
TUE AFT OR EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY BE DRY.
LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO LOW
THE ECMWF IS NOW BACKING OFF ON STRONG CYCLOGENESIS FOR
THU...AND MORE SIMILAR TO OTHER MODELS WITH AN OPEN WAVE MOVING
FROM MO TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS GIVES A COOLER SOLUTION
WITH BETTER CHANCES OF MIXED PCPN WED NT BUT STILL MILD ENOUGH FOR
A PERIOD OF RAIN ON THU. STILL DRY FOR FRI WITH THE AREA WITHIN A
COL.
SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER WAVE WILL THEN EXTEND AN INVERTED SFC
TROUGH FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC
LOW TO FOLLOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOR NEXT FRI NT AND SAT.
CHANCES OF SNOW ARE FORECAST.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...QUICK HITTING SNOW EVENT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOOKING AT AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST AREAS AS MODELS WEAKEN THE BAND
SOMEWHAT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS TO ENSURE WEAKENING PANS
OUT. EXPECTING CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR LEVELS WITH
SOME IFR VSBYS LIKELY ESP IN SC WI WHERE BAND MAY STILL BE A BIT BETTER
ORGANIZED. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST LOWER CLOUD DECK LINGERS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1116 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY FOR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY EVENING BUT COOL AND
DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION. A
MILDER AND UNSETTLED PERIOD IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1115 PM UPDATE...
VERY HEAVY SNOW BAND OVER CAPE COD WITH REPORTS OF THUNDER SNOW
IN THIS BAND. GIVEN INTENSITY OF THE REFLECTIVITY SEEN ON RADAR
PROBABLY LOOKING AT 2-3"/HOUR RATES. HRRR MOVES THIS BAND
OFFSHORE BY 06Z SO EXPECT THE HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST
OF THE CAPE DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH SNOW RATES DIMINISHING.
ELSEWHERE...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WEST OF I95 AND SNOWFALL RATES
HAVE DIMINISHED TO THE EAST. STILL MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
SNOW FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO CAPE ANN BUT SNOWFALL WILL BE
DIMINISHING NEXT FEW HOURS.
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW PEAK OF THE WIND WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH G50 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER CAPE/ACK AND 40 KT
ACROSS REST OF E COASTAL MA. DANGEROUS SITUATION ON CAPE COD WITH
COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HEAVY SNOW BAND TAKING SHAPE ACROSS FAR SE MA...PRIMARILY ACROSS
PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO THE UPPER CAPE. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AT 700
MB SHOWS THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AND PACKING OF ISOTHERMS ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS FAR SE MA. NAM MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND SNOW GROWTH OMEGA IS HANDLING THIS BAND VERY
WELL AND KEEP THIS BANDING SIGNAL IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY BEFORE
IT MOVES EAST 03-06Z. MAX SNOWFALL 12-18" WILL BE ACROSS PLYMOUTH
COUNTY TO THE UPPER CAPE...WITH GENERALLY 8-12" ACROSS REST OF SE
MA.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS UPDATE IS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
HEAVY SNOWFALL. NAM SHOWING A FAIRLY SHARP CUT OFF TO THE MID
LEVEL FGEN AND SNOW GROWTH OMEGA ALONG AND WEST OF THE I95
CORRIDOR SO EXPECT AMOUNTS TO DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY WEST OF
I95. AS THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW MOVES NE FROM THE BENCHMARK WE
DO EXPECT SOME HEAVIER SNOW OVER THE OCEAN TO PIVOT BACK INTO NE
MA INCLUDING BOS AND THE NORTH SHORE AS BANDING BECOMES MORE N-S
ORIENTED. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT HRRR MODEL DEPICTION OF
HEAVIER SNOW BACKING INTO NE MA.
WE TIGHTENED THE SNOWFALL GRADIENT ALONG I-95 DECREASING AMOUNTS
ALONG AND TO THE WEST WITH UP TO 8 INCHES I-95 AND 6 INCHES JUST
TO THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
STRONG COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BOMB OUT INTO THE MARITIMES ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING BEFORE DECREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE BELOW -8C SO TEMPS WILL BE
STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS WELL AS IN
THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MORE OF A DUSTING WITH WORST CAST SCENARIO
BEING AN INCH OR TWO. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT BY 09Z
AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AFTERWARDS. HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN UP
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT. YET WITH THE
STRONG CAA...AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -14 TO -16C EXPECT TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. CERTAIN REGIONS
FLIRT WITH WIND CHILL ADV...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY
* POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW ON TUESDAY
* WED THROUGH SAT...SEVERAL WEAK WAVES THROUGH A ZONAL
FLOW...WARMER PATTERN.
MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
OVERALL HAVE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MEDIUM
AND LONG TERM. ALTHOUGH THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON A WARMER
TREND BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWERS HIGH
PRESSURE ON MONDAY BEFORE DIVERGING IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
TUESDAY. AFTERWARDS THE FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND ALLOWING ANY SORT OF
WAVE TO RIDE THROUGH ALLOWING FOR A WETTER YET WARMER PATTERN.
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS PREV AND HPC YET WITH THE TUESDAY
SYSTEM BLENDED MORE OF THE EC INTO THE FORECAST. THE LATEST 12Z RUN
OF THE EC DEVELOPS MORE OF A COASTAL LOW FOR THE REGION IN
ALIGNMENT WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN. ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE FAN OF THE
CANADIAN...NOTICED THAT SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ARE ALSO SHOWING
A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING FOR A
POTENTIAL SYSTEM.
DETAILS...
MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AT 850MB WILL YIELD TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NICE LITTLE BREAK IN THE BUSY
WEATHER WEEK. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE STRONG CAA...TEMPS WILL STILL
BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING.
MODELS INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES SO SOME DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL AS SOME GUSTY WINDS.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
TRENDED THIS FORECAST TO THE EC AND GEM. MODELS BRING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE BENCHMARK TRYING TO MAKE THE FLOW MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN SEEN BY SEVERAL PREVIOUS
STORMS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. BUT FOR
NOW...THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE COLUMN AS WELL
AS THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DESCENT AMOUNT OF
LIFT AS WELL. BELIEVE THAT SNOW WILL OVER SPREAD THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY BEFORE DEPARTING THE AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL THE QUESTION OF
TIMING...APPEARS THAT THE MORNING COMMUTE OUT WEST AND THE EVENING
COMMUTE OUT EAST WILL BE IMPACTED. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY AND THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT ITS TRACK...RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLE ADVISORY SNOW OUT FOR THE INTERIOR. STAY
TUNED FOR MORE UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
A FEW WEAK WAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION WITH A POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH TIMING OF PRECIP IS STILL IN QUESTION IS APPEARS THAT A
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.
850MB TEMPS JUMP TO 4C ON WED ALLOWING TEMPS INTO THE 40S. QUICK
SHORTWAVE ON WED PM MAP ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPS ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE DROP. HOWEVER ON THURSDAY...850MB TEMPS WARM UP
TO ABOUT 0C. SURFACE TEMPS WILL STILL REACH INTO THE 40S AS
FORECASTER ANTICIPATES DIURNAL HEATING DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN THE COLUMN. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS WARMING TREND WITH THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND. IT COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
ON FRIDAY WILL WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 40S BUT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH...TEMPS WILL DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE AT THE
ONSET RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX AS YOU GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH ONCE MODELS ARE IN MORE OF AN
AGREEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM /TONIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH LATE EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 60 KNOTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.
CIGS/VSBYS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM 4Z TO 8Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
HOWEVER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COAST.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOD/HEAVY SNOW AND LIFR
CONDITIONS THOUGH MIDNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVE THEREAFTER BUT
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE SNOW THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING. VSBYS IMPROVE AFTER 4Z BUT WINDS REMAIN GUSTY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT GUSTING WINDS TO 25 KTS IN THE MORNING
DECREASING INTO THE EVENING TO 15 KTS. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TO VFR.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...THEN CONDITIONS LOWER
TO MVFR-IFR ACROSS THE REGION IN CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW. PRECIP MAY
MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN TUE AFTERNOON ALONG THE S COAST BEFORE
ENDING TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MOVING W-E DURING
WED NIGHT. MAY SEE MIXED PRECIP CHANGING TO RAIN. VFR ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE UNDER GOING BOMBOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN POWERFUL NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE
EVENING WEARS ON. WINDS GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 45 KNOTS IN OUR
WESTERN SOUNDS...TO 60 KNOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.
GALE AND STORM WARNINGS ARE POSTED. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD HIGHER
THAN WNA GUIDANCE AS WE SHOULD SEE THEM EXCEED 20 FEET FOR A TIME
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS IS A DANGEROUS
AND LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS...WHO SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
RETURNED TO PORT.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT NW WIND GUSTS TO 30-40 KT AND SEAS ABOVE 12FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS EARLY SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY BUT
REMAINING AT GALE FORCE THROUGH SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
WATERS. EXPECT GUSTS TO DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY SUN
EVENING WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAINING ABOVE 5 FT.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS GUSTING TO GALES ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE LATE TUESDAY DUE TO ANOTHER APPROACHING COASTAL LOW. HAVE
INCREASED WAVES AS GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING THIS UP. .
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCA WILL
STILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT
IN A STORM SURGE OF 3-4 FT IN PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY WITH SEAS 10-
12 FT TONIGHT. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE HIGH TIDE AROUND MIDNIGHT
RESULTING IN AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE COAST OF CAPE
COD FACING CAPE COD BAY. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
NANTUCKET HARBOR AND PROVINCETOWN HARBOR. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS.
ALSO...DECIDED TO INCLUDE CAPE ANN IN THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
GIVEN THE FACT THEY ARE A BIT EXPOSED MAY SEE SOME VERY MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THEIR MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ005-006-
012>017-020.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ007-018-019-
021>024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ007-022-
024.
NH...NONE.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-
254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1242 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
LIGHT SNOW PUSHING INTO AND THRU ERN KY. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY. FCST HAS THIS IN PLACE. STILL
EXPECTING A HALF AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION. UPDATED GRIDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1057 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
PRECIP SEEMS TO BE REACHING THE GROUND FINALLY IN A FEW PLACES ACROSS
CENTRAL KY...MAINLY ALONG THE HEAVIEST REFLECTIVITIES. THIS INCLUDES
THE MONTICELLO SITE...SO THERE IS HOPE THAT SOME OF THIS SNOW IS
FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KY. ONGOING POP FORECAST SEEMS TO
BE VERY WELL ON TRACK...WITH HIGHER POPS MOVING IN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. DID A LOAD OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO MAKE
SURE TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WIND FORECASTS ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF
ONGOING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FLUCTUATE
LITTLE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
DESPITE DECENT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL TN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KY...AND POINTS TO THE NW...SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE TO NO
SNOW REPORTS IN ANY OF THESE AREAS. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS STILL
AROUND 10 DEGREES IN AREAS UNDER THE HIGHEST RETURNS...IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH A LEVEL OF DRY AIR HAS CUT OFF ANY OF THE MOISTURE FROM MAKING
IT TO THE GROUND. IN FACT...AS THE PRECIP HAS NEARED CLOSER...CIGS
HAVE ACTUALLY LIFTED TO MID/HIGH VFR. A FEW SITES HAVE REPORTED
SNOW...BUT IT SEEMS TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT SPORADIC. IF
ANYTHING...THE HRRR IS INITIALIZING THE BEST WITH ITS PRECIP OUTPUT
VS WHERE THE SNOW REPORTS ARE ACTUALLY BEING SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH THAT IN MIND...USED IT AND A BLEND OF THE OFFICIAL...LATEST NAM AND
REGIONAL GEM AS A BASIS TO UPDATE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENTLY...A BAND OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY IS MOVING INTO THE FAR SW
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW
FLAKES OUT OF THIS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT QPF WILL REMAIN AT A
MINIMUM.
IN UPDATING THE POPS...ALSO WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED QPF
ACCORDINGLY...LOWERING IT AND THE 6HR SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY. DO EXPECT
THAT WE WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...BUT SHOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...WITH
SOME PLACES POTENTIALLY MISSING IT ALTOGETHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE THE SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW FLURRIES...EVEN
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS FROM A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY POKING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THIS POINT...OBSERVATIONS UP
NORTH LOOK PRETTY SCARCE AS THIS CLIPPER LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AT
THIS POINT. SHORT TERM MODELS BRING THIS CLIPPER IN PRETTY QUICKLY
THIS EVENING BUT HAS A DECENT LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER TO OVERCOME AT THIS
POINT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL MAINTAIN SUB FREEZING VALUES THROUGH THE
AREA BUT THE LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL KEEP TOTALS TEMPERED QUITE A
BIT...IN FACT LIMITING ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTH AND IN THE EAST HIGH
TERRAIN AT A HALF INCH AND BELOW...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL LATER...POSSIBLY 06Z...FOR THE LOWER LAYER TO BECOME SATURATED.
LOOKING AT THE NAM...THE 08Z TO 11Z TIME FRAME SHOWS A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF DECENT DENDRITIC GROWTH BUT WOULD ONLY RESULT IN ABOUT A
HALF INCH ACCUMULATION BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HIGHLIGHT THIS WITH
A HWO OR BOTH AN HWO AND SPS.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE CLOUD COVER HEADING OFF TO NORTHEAST
AS THE CLIPPER QUICKLY EXITS THE AREA AND BRIEF RIDGING FOLLOWS IN
BEHIND...TEMPS WILL WARM UP INTO THE 40S QUITE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON HIGHER ELEVATIONS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE UPPER 30S DUE TO THE EXITING CLOUD COVER
AND ANY SNOW COVER LEFT OVER. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAINTAINING A
ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...THOUGH A
BIT MORE INTENSE THAN THE LAST...INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING A BIT ON ARRIVAL TIME WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT IT SEEMS RECENT RUNS HAVE CONSENSUS ON A LATER ARRIVAL SO
WILL HOLD OFF BRINGING IN POPS UNTIL THE MONDAY PERIOD WHICH IS IN
THE EXTENDED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER BY MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
RIPPLES IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FIRST WAVE THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BRING A GOOD
SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH OF QPF. A WEAKER RIPPLE WILL
THEN PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO WILL ONLY
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BY THURSDAY...AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE TROUGH WILL DIG IN A LITTLE OVER THE ROCKIES
CREATING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...PEAKING THURSDAY NIGHT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO DECENT WIND PROFILE WITH A
LITTLE PROGGED INSTABILITY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL TO OUR
SOUTH AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WE WILL
PROLONG A MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER THUNDER MENTION ON SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS.
DESPITE ALL THE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE BIG
STORY WILL BE THE WARMING TREND. THIS WILL REALLY KICK IN ONCE THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SENDING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ON
THURSDAY. ENJOY IT BECAUSE IT WILL NOT LAST...IT IS AFTER ALL STILL
FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN KY...EXPECT REDUCTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBY.
BY MORNING...SNOW WILL HAVE MOVED OUT...BUT SOME MVFR CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY AND VFR DAY FOR
SUNDAY AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUSTY
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DUSTY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1232 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
PRECIP SEEMS TO BE REACHING THE GROUND FINALLY IN A FEW PLACES ACROSS
CENTRAL KY...MAINLY ALONG THE HEAVIEST REFLECTIVITIES. THIS INCLUDES
THE MONTICELLO SITE...SO THERE IS HOPE THAT SOME OF THIS SNOW IS
FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KY. ONGOING POP FORECAST SEEMS TO
BE VERY WELL ON TRACK...WITH HIGHER POPS MOVING IN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. DID A LOAD OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO MAKE
SURE TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WIND FORECASTS ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF
ONGOING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FLUCTUATE
LITTLE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
DESPITE DECENT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL TN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KY...AND POINTS TO THE NW...SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE TO NO
SNOW REPORTS IN ANY OF THESE AREAS. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS STILL
AROUND 10 DEGREES IN AREAS UNDER THE HIGHEST RETURNS...IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH A LEVEL OF DRY AIR HAS CUT OFF ANY OF THE MOISTURE FROM MAKING
IT TO THE GROUND. IN FACT...AS THE PRECIP HAS NEARED CLOSER...CIGS
HAVE ACTUALLY LIFTED TO MID/HIGH VFR. A FEW SITES HAVE REPORTED
SNOW...BUT IT SEEMS TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT SPORADIC. IF
ANYTHING...THE HRRR IS INITIALIZING THE BEST WITH ITS PRECIP OUTPUT
VS WHERE THE SNOW REPORTS ARE ACTUALLY BEING SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH THAT IN MIND...USED IT AND A BLEND OF THE OFFICIAL...LATEST NAM AND
REGIONAL GEM AS A BASIS TO UPDATE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENTLY...A BAND OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY IS MOVING INTO THE FAR SW
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW
FLAKES OUT OF THIS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT QPF WILL REMAIN AT A
MINIMUM.
IN UPDATING THE POPS...ALSO WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED QPF
ACCORDINGLY...LOWERING IT AND THE 6HR SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY. DO EXPECT
THAT WE WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...BUT SHOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...WITH
SOME PLACES POTENTIALLY MISSING IT ALTOGETHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE THE SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW FLURRIES...EVEN
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS FROM A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY POKING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THIS POINT...OBSERVATIONS UP
NORTH LOOK PRETTY SCARCE AS THIS CLIPPER LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED AT
THIS POINT. SHORT TERM MODELS BRING THIS CLIPPER IN PRETTY QUICKLY
THIS EVENING BUT HAS A DECENT LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER TO OVERCOME AT THIS
POINT. SURFACE TEMPS WILL MAINTAIN SUB FREEZING VALUES THROUGH THE
AREA BUT THE LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL KEEP TOTALS TEMPERED QUITE A
BIT...IN FACT LIMITING ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTH AND IN THE EAST HIGH
TERRAIN AT A HALF INCH AND BELOW...GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL LATER...POSSIBLY 06Z...FOR THE LOWER LAYER TO BECOME SATURATED.
LOOKING AT THE NAM...THE 08Z TO 11Z TIME FRAME SHOWS A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF DECENT DENDRITIC GROWTH BUT WOULD ONLY RESULT IN ABOUT A
HALF INCH ACCUMULATION BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY HIGHLIGHT THIS WITH
A HWO OR BOTH AN HWO AND SPS.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE CLOUD COVER HEADING OFF TO NORTHEAST
AS THE CLIPPER QUICKLY EXITS THE AREA AND BRIEF RIDGING FOLLOWS IN
BEHIND...TEMPS WILL WARM UP INTO THE 40S QUITE QUICKLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON HIGHER ELEVATIONS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE UPPER 30S DUE TO THE EXITING CLOUD COVER
AND ANY SNOW COVER LEFT OVER. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAINTAINING A
ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...THOUGH A
BIT MORE INTENSE THAN THE LAST...INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING A BIT ON ARRIVAL TIME WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT IT SEEMS RECENT RUNS HAVE CONSENSUS ON A LATER ARRIVAL SO
WILL HOLD OFF BRINGING IN POPS UNTIL THE MONDAY PERIOD WHICH IS IN
THE EXTENDED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER BY MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
RIPPLES IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FIRST WAVE THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BRING A GOOD
SLUG OF RAIN THROUGH FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH OF QPF. A WEAKER RIPPLE WILL
THEN PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO WILL ONLY
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BY THURSDAY...AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE TROUGH WILL DIG IN A LITTLE OVER THE ROCKIES
CREATING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...PEAKING THURSDAY NIGHT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO DECENT WIND PROFILE WITH A
LITTLE PROGGED INSTABILITY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL TO OUR
SOUTH AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WE WILL
PROLONG A MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER THUNDER MENTION ON SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS.
DESPITE ALL THE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE BIG
STORY WILL BE THE WARMING TREND. THIS WILL REALLY KICK IN ONCE THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SENDING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S ON
THURSDAY. ENJOY IT BECAUSE IT WILL NOT LAST...IT IS AFTER ALL STILL
FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN KY...EXPECT REDUCTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBY.
BY MORNING...SNOW WILL HAVE MOVED OUT...BUT SOME MVFR CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY AND VFR DAY FOR
SUNDAY AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DUSTY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1212 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FOR THIS
UPDATE. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A 987 MB LOW CONTINUES TO UNDERGO RAPID
DEEPENING 100 MI SE OF THE CAPE THIS EVENING WITH PRESSURE FALLS
ON THE ORDER OF 4 MB/HR. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL TRACK JUST E OF
HALIFAX AS A 970 MB LOW AT 12Z SUN. THE 18Z GFS AND 00Z RUC HAD
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW AT 00Z AS THE NAM AND
ECMWF WERE A BIT TOO FAR WEST WITH THE LOW CENTER. STEADY SNOW IS
FALLING ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN MOST AREAS AS
OF 930 PM. THE SNOW HAS PUSHED INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE BUT IS
MUCH LIGHTER. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS FALLING ACROSS THE
CAPE AND THE HEAVY SNOW SHOULD MOVE INTO DOWNEAST AREAS AND
ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ONE CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND OF 35-40 KNOTS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS CENTERED AROUND 06Z. THE STRONGEST WIND IS CONFINED
TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE WIND SPEEDS RAPIDLY DROPPING OFF
INLAND. WHAT SNOW IS ON THE GROUND IS CRUSTED OVER AND WILL NOT
BLOW AROUND MUCH. THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS THE WIND
INCREASES AND THE SNOW INCREASES IN INTENSITY. THE POTENTIAL OF
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS ADDRESSED IN THE CURRENT WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THAT ARE OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.
ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE GULF
STREAM AND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED EAST OF
CAPE COD. AROUND MIDNIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LAND FALL
AROUND CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...THEN NORTH TOWARD PRINCE EDWARD
ISLAND. BY MID DAY WILL BE INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE WEST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IT WILL MOVE TO THE NRN
PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. ANALYSIS OF THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR DATA
SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND THE JET SUPPORT SHOW THE UPPER LOW SHOULD
TRACK ACROSS...THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA...ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS CAPE COD...ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...THEN INTO NW NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS TRACK WOULD SUPPORT THE MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
SOMEWHERE JUST WEST OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA FOR LANDFALL. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS ARE UP FOR EASTERN MAINE FROM THE COAST TO THE
CROWN OF MAINE. ADDED ZONES 5 AND 31 TO THE WARNING THAT WERE
ALREADY UP. ZONE 31 MAY FALL A BIT SHORT ON SNOWFALL...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE IMPACT CAUSED BY THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FELT THAT 31
SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN THE WARNING. ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINING
ZONES.
LOADED CONSHPCBLEND FOR TEMPS/WNDS/SKY POPS. LOADED HPC FOR POP
GRIDS AND TRIMMED AMOUNTS ACROSS NW ME. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS
IN COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 20 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND
30 PERCENT OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST AND AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH. OTHERWISE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST WITH
A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND SOME BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING CLEARING ON MONDAY
WITH THE AFTERNOON MOSTLY SUNNY FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MIDDAY AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. A VERY WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION A BIT DOWNEAST LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE,
TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND A BIT MILDER ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL CONTINUE GOING INTO LATER NEXT WEEK BUT
IT`S LOOKING LIKE STORMS ARE GOING TO BE TRACKING NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME PERIODS OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ONE SMALL LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME MODERATION
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS NUDGING ABOVE FREEZING DOWNEAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY. A LARGER LOW MAY THEN TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT DRAWS AN OCCLUDING FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS
SHOWS A WEAK SECONDARY LOW NEAR THE COAST. IF THIS OCCURS, ENOUGH
COLD AIR MAY REMAIN OVER THE NORTH FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH RAIN
FAVORED DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WOULD FOLLOW FOR EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK THAT MAY
BRING RAIN DOWNEAST AND SNOW OR A MIX OVER THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SNOW DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE INTO NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. IFR
CONDITIONS BHB...BGR...AND HUL IN LIGHT SNOW...BCMG LIFR TO BELOW
MINS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE MORNING. LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD TO PQI...CAR...AND FVE AROUND MIDNIGHT.
CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN SITES WILL REMAIN IFR TO THE END OF THE
PERIOD IN WRAP AROUND PRECIP.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT THEN BE
VFR IN HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
LIKELY IN HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA SUN MORNING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUN MORNING AS THE LOW EXITS
THE AREA TO THE EAST. A GALE WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED SUNDAY FOLLOWING
THE STORM WARNING.
SHORT TERM: A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER. AN SCA MAY BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ002-
005-006-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ001-003-004-010.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ011-
015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NORTON
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HASTINGS/NORTON/BLOOMER
MARINE...HASTINGS/NORTON/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
455 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE EXITING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FCST AREA. LINGERING MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A NNE FLOW OF -18C 8H TEMPS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR IS STILL SUPPORTING SOME LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW/FLURRIES OVER
THE MAINLY THE SE CWA AND ALSO SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO
NCNTRL PORTIONS OF UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...MID-LVL RDGG AND Q-VECT DIV AND
ASSOC MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE AS NOTED ON FCST SNDGS SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID
DIMINISHMENT OF ANY REMAINING LES OVER NCNTRL COUNTIES BY LATE
MORNING. UNTIL THEN...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR LIGHT
LES/FLURRIES. CONTINUED NNE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MAY ALLOW
SOME LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR NCNTRL COUNTIES
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE THRU AFTERNOON
HRS. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO BETTER PERFORMING REGIONAL GEM GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH HIGHS AROUND 10F NORTH TO NEAR 20F SW ALONG THE WI
BORDER.
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT. GFS IS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN REST OF MODELS WITH ONSET
OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING OF COLUMN FOR PCPN. GFS
APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT SO WILL SIDE MORE WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND OF ECMWF/REGIONAL GEM/NAM AND UKMET AND CARRY
POPS FOR MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH LIKELY POPS OF 60 PCT
NEAR KIWD BY 12Z MON. CONSENSUS QPF OF AROUND .07 INCH BETWEEN
06-12Z ALONG WITH EXPECTED SLR NEAR 17/1 SHOULD YIELD AROUND ONE
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT FOR KIWD AREA. MIN TEMPS IN
SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE EVENING OVER
THE WRN CWA AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR RISE LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASED
MIXING FROM TIGHTENING SRLY GRAD AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND
INCREASING WAA CLOUDS. LONGER PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER EAST HALF WHERE
BLO ZERO TEMPS AREA EXPECTED. A FEW OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD RAWS
SITES OVER ERN CWA COULD SEE MIN TEMPS OF -10F OR COLDER. AGAIN
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO BETTER PERFORMING CANADIAN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THIS WEEK AS TROUGHING THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE OVER GREAT LAKES FOR QUITE SOME TIME TAKES A BREAK.
TWO LARGER SCALE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND
AGAIN WEDNESDY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS LOOK TO COME THROUGH IN SPLIT FASHION...RESULTING IN THE
MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY IN RUN TO RUN PREDICTABILITY. AT THIS POINT
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD SNOW IS ON MONDAY. WETTER SYSTEM
FOR LATE THE WEEK NOT AS CLEAR CUT DUE TO THE SPLIT NATURE OF
SHORTWAVES AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FCST TO IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. SEEMS THAT THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD HOLDS
BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPS REACHING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE EARLY DECEMBER AT WFO MARQUETTE.
MONDAY...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIDES
EAST ACROSS CNTRL CONUS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...BUT SPLITS INTO TWO
PIECES OF ENERGY WHILE DOING SO. SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE FCST TO MISS UPR
MICHIGAN INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES. MODELS VARY WITH WHICH ONE HAS THE
MOST PUNCH. IF SOUTHERN WAVE IS STRONGER AS SHOWN BY ECMWF AND GEM
THEN STRONGEST MOISTURE INFLOW WOULD SETUP TO THE SOUTH OF UPR
MICHIGAN. IF NORTHERN WAVE IS STRONGER AS SHOWN BY GFS AND NAM THERE
IS A BETTER SHOT OF MORE LOW-LEVEL TEMP/MOISURE ADVECTION MAKING IT
INTO UPR MICHIGAN. ALL AREAS WILL SEE LGT SNOW DUE TO BROAD H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND PVA FM BOTH SHORTWAVES. THERE IS ALSO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH AT LEAST
2G/KG AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM WITH EITHER SCENARIO...MORE THOUGH IF
NORTHERN WAVE IS STRONGER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOT OF MID
LEVEL LIFT WITH PORTION OF UVM/MOISTURE IN THE DGZ. THIS IS LOOKING
LIKE A SOLID HIGHER-END ADVY FOR MUCH OF WEST AND CNTRL CWA. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS PROBABLY END UP OVER WESTERN CWA AND ALONG WI
BORDER...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING. MORE
SNOW WITH THIS MONDAY SYSTEM THOUGH. THOUGHT ABOUT A WATCH AS
MAJORITY OF SREF MEMBERS FOR KIMT ARE IN THE 5-7 INCH RANGE...BUT
THIS OUTPUT IS BIASED BY STRONGER NORTH/WETTER NAM IDEA AS MANY
HIGHER RES MEMBERS IN SREF ARE BASED OFF THE NAM CAMP. NO WATCH FOR
NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO/EHWO. IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE HIGHER AS IT FALLS ON A WEEKDAY.
GFS APPEARS TOO QUICK IN DEPARTING THE SYSTEM MONDAY EVENING...SO
HELD WITH SLOWER IDEA FROM ECMWF/GEM-NH FOR POPS. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SNOW WILL BE OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA THOUGH. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
FEW INCHES IN THE EVENING FOR THE EASTERN AND FAR SCNTRL CWA. EASY
TO SEE IF THE SYSTEM DOES TREND SLOWER...MAY SEE ISOLD SNOW AMOUNTS
OVER 6"/12HR...EXCEEDING OUR WARNING CRITERIA. NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THOUGH IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS TO GIVE
50 PCT CONFIDENCE OF THAT OCCURRING...SO THIS WAS ANOTHER REASON TO
NOT ISSUE A WATCH.
STARTING TO LOOK LIKE TUESDAY MAY END UP THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
COULD THIS BE THE DAY WE END OUR RECORD RUN OF SUB FREEZING DAYS? WE
WILL SEE. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS IN WESTERLY FLOW AND
SFC LOW SHOULD FORM UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS PLACES UPR
MICHIGAN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. MODELS HINTING THAT
THERE MAY BE LGT QPF OVER NORTHERN TIER ALONG BRIEFLY RETREATING H85
FRONT. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THIS. WELL THEY ARE SHOWING IT FOR AT
LEAST ONE RUN ANYWAY. PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN OVER THE NORTH.
WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN...TEMPS COULD
EASILY PUSH PAST THAT ELUSIVE FREEZING MARK AS 925-900MB TEMPS SURGE
UP TO AROUND 0C IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT SPREAD WITH SOME MOS GUIDANCE PUSHING MAX
TEMPS INTO LOWER 40S OVER WESTERN CWA. IF SKIES COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT
WOULD NOT RULE THAT OUT AT ALL. FOR NOW...PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE
GIVEN OUR PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUDS. EVEN SO RAISED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S...COLDEST
EAST AND WARMEST FAR WEST.
APPEARS QUIET BUT A BIT COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AS WEAK TROUGH CROSSES
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WITH READINGS IN THE 30S
AGAIN...THIS TIME COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE
ICE COVER. AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE SEEMS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS WE
ARE AHEAD OF PRIMARY TROUGH THAT MOVES IN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SAME ISSUE OF SPLIT SHORTWAVES THAT AFFECTS THE MONDAY FORECAST POPS
UP AGAIN FOR THE THURSDAY FORECAST. MODELS ARE JUMPING AROUND IN HOW
MUCH PHASING CAN OCCUR AND/OR WHICH WAVE IS THE DOMINANT ONE. LAST
COUPLE RUNS OF ECMWF AND GFS SEEMED TO BE TRENDING DRIER...BUT 00Z
RUN IS BACK TO WETTER IDEA. AT THIS POINT...HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT
CONSENSUS OF MODELS OFFERED UP LOOK FINE. WAVE IS STILL NORTH OF THE
ALLUTIAN ISLANDS SO WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE MODELS GET LOCKED IN.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT REALLY ANY OF THE POSSIBILITIES SHOWN IN TERMS OF
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND THERMAL FIELDS SO FAR FM THE MODELS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT...USED BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH YIELDED LIMITED CHANCES OF RAIN AND MAINLY A SNOW EVENT FOR
MUCH OF CWA...EVEN AS SFC TEMPS ON THURSDAY RISE AGAIN INTO THE 30S.
BASED ON 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES OVER LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS IT SEEMS THAT LESS OF A RAIN IDEA IS SHOWING UP...BUT AGAIN
THIS COULD CHANGE ONCE RAOBS BETTER SAMPLE THIS DISTURBANCE EARLY
THIS WEEK.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SW-NE MOVING SHORTWAVES/SFC WAVES IMPACTING GREAT
LAKES ON FRONT EDGE OF DEVELOPING LARGER SCALE TROUGH. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK GOOD GIVEN THIS PATTERN WITH
PTYPE BACK TO MOSTLY SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALL THREE TAF
SITES WILL SEE THE SNOW END WHILE CIGS AND VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY
IMPROVE. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE IN THE EVENING HAVE
GIVEN WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KIWD AND KCMX. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS AT KSAW WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY 9Z AS THE
SNOWS TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES PAST. THERE
REMAINS SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND HEAT FLUXES OFF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HOW THIS MAY HELP KEEP CIGS LOWER A BIT
LONGER...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL. AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN VFR
CIGS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE TO STAY LIGHT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
OVERALL...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING OVER EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR...BUT GALES ARE
NOT EXPECTED AS MAIN SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER CNTRL AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY TREND STRONGER LATE THIS WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. WITH THE LAKE ALMOST COMPLETELY
ICE COVERED...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
335 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING LEADING TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A COUPLE TO PERHAPS A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MAINLY DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LIKELY FOLLOWED BY SOME RAIN OR SNOW ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
...SUNSHINE FOR MANY BEHIND DEPARTING LIGHT SNOW...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
CURRENT WEATHER/SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING IS NOW WORKING
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. RUC ANALYSIS SEEMINGLY TOO STRONG WITH
OVERALL DEEP LAYER FORCING WHICH IS NOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...BASED ON
WEAKNESS OF OVERALL RADAR RETURNS. GRANTED...THE ACTIVITY HAS PICKED
UP JUST A LITTLE BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS GTV
BAY...WHERE THE BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK
SFC LOW (CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN) RESIDE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
VERY WEAK IN LAX PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS...LIGHT/VERY LIGHT
SNOWS. BACK EDGE OF THE ENHANCED DEEPER MOISTURE PER LATEST
SATELLITE DATA...ALREADY OUT OF EASTERN UPPER WITH LAST VESTIGES OF
3-5SM SNOWS NOW ENDING IN WESTERN CHIP/MAC COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. UPSTREAM...IN A SEEMINGLY UNFATHOMABLE CHANGE OF
WEATHER PATTERN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. YES. YES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...AND WARMTH...WAS IMPRESSIVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
WESTERN DAKOTAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE RETURN SRLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN MN...WAS RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. CONVERSELY...ON THE LIGHT WIND
FORWARD FLANK/LIGHT WIND SIDE..WERE TEMPERATURES IN THE 0 TO -10F
BELOW ZERO RANGE....AND AREAS OF STRATUS.
PATTERN EVOLUTION/WEATHER EXPECTATIONS: UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE/WAA/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND
EXITS THE REGION WITH DISSOLVING SFC LOW/ABSORPTION INTO DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. LIGHT/VERY LIGHT SNOWS WILL BE ENDING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE MORNING...OUT OF THE CWA AND INTO SAG BAY
AROUND ROUGHLY 16Z. IT IT`S WAKE...AGAIN...HINTS OF TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION WITH
LOADS OF DRY AIR ALOFT. GOTTA BELIEVE THAT WHATEVER SHALLOW CU CAN
FIRE OFF WITH SUNUP...WILL QUICKLY ERODE...IF IT FORMS AT ALL. THIS
WILL LEAVE NRN MICHIGAN IN A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AGAIN FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE AFTERNOON (LEAST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN THE SE CWA).
THESE CLEAR/CLEARING SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE EVENING
WITH DEEP/DRY ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 650MB/700MB. OF
COURSE CANNOT RULE OUT ANY PATCHY STRATUS...BUT IT LOOKS MORE CLEAR
THAN ANYTHING. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES IN WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW DROP RATHER EFFICIENTLY THROUGH THE EVENING...GETTING A GOOD
HEAD START. NEGATIVELY TILTING...MUCH TALKED ABOUT NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL BE RACING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG WARM FRONT WITH IMPRESSIVE 285-290K ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/NET ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING
AND DEVELOPING N-S ORIENTED SWATH OF SNOW MIXED WITH SOME SLEET.
CLOUDS ALOFT THICKEN OVERNIGHT...AND SLOW/STOP THE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. CAN SEE SOME -5 TO -15F READING FOR LOWS ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE CLEAR SKIES LAST LONGER...BUT
MAYBE JUST A TAD WARMER THAN THAT CONSIDERING THE CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
CHALLENGING FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH IS NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WHEN THE
PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW PROCESS OF WARMING UP USUALLY COMMENCES. THE
FIRST SYSTEM OF INTEREST MONDAY...IS LOOKING WAY WEAKER...NOW AN
OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE. MILDER TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND SYSTEM ON THURSDAY IS
TRENDING A BIT COOLER/LESS AMPLIFIED INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OVER
PRECIPITATION TYPE. COLDER AIR THEN LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HOW MUCH IT WILL WARM UP TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE ON THURSDAY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EXTENDED MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A MUCH
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY
MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT (THOUGH THE OUTLYING ECMWF REMAINS MUCH
DEEPER). THIS SPELLS LOWER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF
TWO TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST (MID TO LATE MORNING) TO EAST (SHORTLY
AFTER NOON) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST. LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A TEMPORARY SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN WITH MILDER AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT FOR THE MOST PART LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER...THOUGH
TROUGHS MOVING BY TO THE NORTH MAY COMPROMISE THE DRY PART OF THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS). HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVIDENCES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT TRACKS BY
TO OUR NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATEST TRENDS ARE HEDGING
TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED/LESS WARM SYSTEM...WITH A POSSIBLE SECONDARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH CUTTING OFF THE INFLOW
OF WARMER AIR. THIS OBVIOUSLY CASTS LOTS OF DOUBT ABOUT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST GENERAL WITH
RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND RAIN LIKELY SOUTH THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY IS
NOW EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH.
A PACIFIC RIDGE THEN BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STRENGTHENS NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING/COLD AIR
RETURNING TO THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FRIDAY
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
-SN OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT. -SN WILL FALL WELL NORTH OF THE LOW...AND AS
ALREADY STARTED TO INVADE THE AREA. SEVERAL HOURS OF VSBYS CIRCA
2SM ARE EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES NEAR MBL/TVC. CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...JUST A TOUCH OF A NORTH
BREEZE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1225 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED UPSTREAM
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO NRN MN AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER
IA. RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES FROM 7.5C-8.0C/KM HAS
HELPED MAXIMIZING LIFT WITH THE MODERATE 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV
AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV HAS SUPPORTED AREAS OF MODERATE SNOW FROM NRN MN
INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SNOW ALSO FROM NRN MN INTO THE KEWEENAW
ALSO HAD A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE...PER VIS SATELLITE LOOP.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WERE THICKENING ACROSS THE REST OF UPPER MI AS
THE AREA OF SNOW FROM NEAR DLH INTO NW WI APPROACHED IWD.
THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS
AFTERNOON WAS ALIGNED WITH 800-600 MB FGEN.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND THE NAM/REGIONAL GEM SUGGEST
THAT THE STRONGER FORCING WILL SLIDE THROUGH WRN AND WRN UPPER MI
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV. UPSTREAM OBS AND MODELS CONSENSUS
QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.15 INCH WITH THE SLR VALUES OF AROUND 20/1 WOULD
GIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. SOME LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE THE DURATION OF FGEN
FORCING AND LOCALLY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW SQUEEZES
OUT SOME GREATER AMOUNTS. AMOUNTS OVER THE KEWEENAW WOULD LIKELY BE
MUCH HIGHER BUT THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER HAS LIMITED ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL ERLY FLOW. EXPECT THE SNOW TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AS THE SHRTWV
DEPARTS.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT LES INTO N CNTRL
UPPER MI WITH SOME MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX FROM ANY GAPS IN THE LAKE ICE
COVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS INITIALLY DRIVEN BY ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF A DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF AK. THAT
UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY MON INTO TUE...WITH SOME OF THE
REMAINING ENERGY BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE WRN AND CENTRAL CONUS
MID-LATE THIS WEEK WHERE MODELS INDICATE IT WILL BE DEEPENED INTO A
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES.
THE FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MON
INTO MON NIGHT. A FEW THINGS ARE LEADING TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH...TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IMPACTS
RELATED FIELDS SUCH AS QPF. FIRST...THE ENERGY IS STILL TIED TO THE
LOW AND IS OVER THE PACIFIC...AND THEREFORE OUT OF THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL OBSERVATION NETWORK SO SAMPLING IS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT OF AN
ISSUE. SECOND...AND PROBABLY THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL REASON FOR
DISAGREEMENT...IS THAT THE ENERGY LOOKS TO BE SPLIT BETWEEN A NRN
AND SRN SHORTWAVE...THE SOUTHERN OF WHICH IS HELPED OUT BY AN JET
STREAK AND IS THE MAIN FEATURE. MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE /RUN TO
RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL/ WITH AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OF THE ENERGY TO
ALLOT TO EACH OF THE SHORTWAVES...ALONG WITH MOISTURE FIELDS AND
SUCH. THE 12Z/15 GFS AND 00Z/15 ECMWF REPRESENT TWO OF THE EXTREMES
WITH THE NRN SHORTWAVE. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER /WITH LOWER QPF
TOTALS LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES/ WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SLOWER
AND ACTUALLY HAS THE NRN SHORTWAVE BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE
WHILE BECOMING CLOSED OFF OVER LOWER MI LATE MON. THE ECMWF HAS THE
MOST QPF AT 0.35-0.45 INCHES. WHILE NOT AT ALL SURE IF ANY OF THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS WILL BE CORRECT...WILL USE THE 12/15 NAM AND 12/15 GEM
SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THE NAM IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS WHILE THE GEM IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...BUT THEY
ARE STILL MORE MODERATED SOLUTIONS TO THE TWO EXTREMES. THIS GIVES
TOTAL QPF OF 0.25-0.35 INCHES...WHICH TRANSLATES TO ROUGHLY 3-5
INCHES OF SNOW...WHICH MATCHES UP TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL...YET WEAKER...SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE THROUGH TUE INTO
WED...WITH CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LOOKS TO
BE QUITE A BIT MORE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS NOT AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE. MORE INTERESTINGLY...MODELS BRING
AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUE...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS AS WARM AS 0C ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MAX SFC TEMPS AROUND 30F...WET BULB ZERO TEMPS ABOVE
THE SFC WILL BE BELOW ZERO. THIS IS WHERE PRECIP IS MORE OF AN ISSUE
IN THAT THE DRY MID LEVELS WILL LEAVE THE DGZ DRY AND THE STRONG
INVERSION BENEATH THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL TRAP PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS LATE MON NIGHT BEFORE THAT MOISTURE GETS MIXED BY
DAYTIME HEATING TUE. COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE N OF LAKE
MICHIGAN DUE TO SW WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND UPSLOPE FLOW THERE.
AN UPPER TROUGH THEN TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING...BRINGING A COOLER
AIRMASS WITH IT. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MODELS HAVE MOVING THROUGH
LATE WED/WED NIGHT IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO TEMPS MAY
NOT GET AS WARM ON WED. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WED.
THU THROUGH NEXT SUN IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. QUESTIONS ABOUT STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE
TROUGH...ALONG WITH PHASING AND HOW MUCH/WHEN PIECES OF ENERGY CAN
EJECT FROM THE TROUGH ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO ANSWER AT THIS POINT. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR MUCH STRONGER SYSTEMS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...WHICH INCLUDES POSSIBILITIES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP /EITHER
MIXED PTYPE OR SNOW/. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSER
MONITORING BY THOSE WITH TRAVEL/OUTDOOR INTERESTS AS FORECASTS ARE
REFINED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLDER AIR WILL MOVED INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. USED A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE POOR MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT ALL THREE TAF
SITES WILL SEE THE SNOW END WHILE CIGS AND VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY
IMPROVE. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE IN THE EVENING HAVE
GIVEN WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KIWD AND KCMX. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS AT KSAW WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY 9Z AS THE
SNOWS TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES PAST. THERE
REMAINS SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND HEAT FLUXES OFF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HOW THIS MAY HELP KEEP CIGS LOWER A BIT
LONGER...BUT AT THIS TIME EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL. AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN VFR
CIGS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE TO STAY LIGHT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY UNDER 20 KTS WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS. ONE WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. THE SECOND WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR 20 TO 30 KT SE WINDS OVER MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH THE LAKE
ALMOST COMPLETELY ICE COVERED...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FREEZING
SPRAY ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
336 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
Stratus deck building southward will likely make it as far south as
the Missouri River this morning, possibly a bit further south than
that, with the western edge close to St. Joseph and Kansas City. This
stratus deck may gradually scatter out later this afternoon but
will likely keep temperatures quite a bit cooler than previously
forecast. Even areas west of this stratus deck will likely see a
thick mid-layer deck for much of the day, so temperatures were
lowered several degrees across the board with highs generally in the
lower to middle 30s.
Warm air advection will get underway late tonight and will be
accompanied by a wave of light rain and drizzle developing around
midnight and lasting through Monday morning. This rain will
initially encounter sub-freezing temperatures across much of northern
Missouri possibly as far south as I-70. These temperatures will
gradually rise above freezing through the overnight and early
morning hours so that the entire region rises above freezing by mid
to late Monday morning. However this will still provide a couple of
hours of freezing rain for areas near and slightly north of the
Missouri River, and possibly 6 hours or more of freezing rain for far
northern MO. Model QPF amounts have been fairly consistent with this
system with anywhere from 0.1" to 0.25" liquid- equivalent falling
across north central and northeast Missouri, the higher amounts being
around the Kirksville area and points north and east. This region
will also be the last to rise above freezing Monday morning and
appears likely to receive a tenth or two of ice accumulation through
this time. There could also be a few periods of sleet or snow across
far northern Missouri Monday morning but any accumulations should be
very minor.
Given the likelihood of hazardous ice accumulations tonight and
Monday, a freezing rain advisory has been issued for areas along and
northeast of a Bethany to Macon line (opted for freezing rain advy vs
winter weather advy since any sleet or snow should be of minimal
impact). These areas stand the highest chance of seeing ice
accumulations of a tenth of an inch or more. However, periods of
freezing rain are likely much further south than this late tonight,
possibly as far south as Kansas City and Sedalia for a brief period
around midnight before temperatures rise above freezing. Therefore
the advisory stands a good chance of being expanded further south and
west during the day once we have a better handle on how far south the
freezing line will be once the rain begins. For now a conservative
approach was taken on the advisory to give an extra heads up to areas
which will see the highest ice accumulations and for a longer period
of time.
The warm air advection that will drive tonight`s precipitation event
will also allow temperatures to rise into the 40s across the entire
area by Monday afternoon. This warmup will continue into Tuesday with
highs ranging from the upper 40s over northern MO to the upper 50s
near and south of I-70. Similar temperatures are expected on
Wednesday. These warm temperatures will set the stage for rain and a
few embedded thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday when a
surface low will track across Kansas and Missouri. Instability will
be weak and of an elevated nature so that any thunderstorms should be
isolated and fairly weak.
A lack of strong meridional upper flow behind Wednesday night`s
system will maintain above-average temperatures for Thursday and
Friday. Another system will develop somewhere across the Central or
Northern Plains late in the week as an upper-level trough digs into
the central U.S. There has been quite a bit of wavering with the exact
track of this system with a few model runs suggesting a further south
track that would give us a chance of snow Friday night and Saturday.
Such a solution can`t be ruled out but trends suggest a storm track
north of our area is more likely.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
Tricky aviation forecast heading into daybreak Sunday as stratus
continue to drop southward out of Iowa and Nebraska this morning.
Models generally having a hard time with this low-level moisture, but
RAP and HRRR have captured general trends well this evening. That
said, steering winds in the cloud layer continue to support a south
to southeast trajectory through daybreak which should bring the
stratus into KSTJ and perhaps as far south as the KC terminals.
Current ceilings right around 1500-2000 Ft AGL, and not expecting any
further lowering.
With winds remaining rather light out of the north, this stratus
could hang out into mid-morning but confidence on this a
significantly lower. Winds will begin to turn to the southeast by
midday with increasing mid-upr clouds through the evening hours.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY from 10 PM this evening to Noon CST
Monday FOR MOZ003-005>008-015>017-024-025.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Dux
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 352 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
Main concern in the short term will be the potential for freezing
rain/freezing drizzle Sunday night after midnight into Monday
morning. This could potentially make a mess of the Monday morning
commute.
Tonight, a weak cold front will drop through the area. Winds will
shift to the north behind the front and should remain around 5-10
MPH through the overnight hours. This will help keep temperatures
from plummeting as they did last night. Lows will be in the mid
teens to mid 20s. Tomorrow morning a surface ridge of high pressure
will move into the region. This will allow for mostly sunny skies
however snow cover and little mixing will keep high temperatures at
bay. Highs will range from the upper 20s across the northeastern CWA
to the low 40s across the southwestern CWA where south winds may
pick up later in the afternoon.
As high pressure shifts off to the east late Sunday afternoon/Sunday
evening, warm air advection will get underway. Temperatures will
actually climb through the overnight Sunday night with lows
occurring before midnight. An digging upper level shortwave will
move from the central Rockies into the central Plains Sunday night.
This will force a cold front into eastern Kansas during the early
morning hours. Model sounding indicate light drizzle will develop
out ahead of this front during the early morning hours of Monday.
The main challenge here will be the surface and road temperatures as
this drizzle moves into the area. Temperatures will be below
freezing across northern Missouri and precipitation will begin as
freezing drizzle. Further south, where temperatures are above
freezing, drizzle will occur however temperatures will be near
enough to freezing that drizzle may freeze to frozen surfaces on
contact. Temperatures will continue to rise through the morning
hours as the cold front moves through the area, increased moisture
and added lift will mean rain instead of drizzle. And, with the
increasing temperatures any freezing precipitation will change over
to liquid precipitation by late morning. Rain will exit the area by
early afternoon as high pressure begins to build into the region
from the southwest.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 352 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
"January Thaw" continues for the week with much above average
temperatures through Thursday and possibly Friday. Fast zonal flow
will prevail with progressive shortwaves during this period.
Mid-week shortwave is expected to generate convection with thunder.
Latest ECMWF is considerably weaker than previous runs as it no
longer generates a strong southern trough coming out of the Southern
Rockies. ECMWF is now more in-line with the GFS solution resulting
in a weaker surface reflection. However, both models develop a
strong southerly low level-jet and transport considerable low level
moisture northward. For this reason believe the net effect will be a
stronger surface cyclone but not as strong as the earlier ECMWF
model runs. The expected increase in instability and isentropic
ascent will power the convective development. Favor increasing PoPs
Wednesday night. Recent model performance has been too slow in
moving these shortwaves within the fast zonal flow and feel this
will be the case as well with the mid-week system. So, have also
ended precipitation faster on Thursday.
Friday should see a slight recovery in temperatures in the wake of
Thursday`s cold frontal passage. Temperatures should be close to
seasonal averages.
Considerable uncertainty on when the next system could affect the
region`s weather. 12z GFS and ECMWF are not in phase with each
other with the former sending a strong upper trough and deepening
surface low through the region. This solution would favor the
development of a deformation zone within the cold sector of the
system, resulting in a threat for snow over northwest MO. The ECMWF
shows a much weaker solution with one piece of energy moving through
IA/MO and another much stronger piece diving south into the desert
southwest. For now the best option is to use a model blend until
things sort themselves out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
Tricky aviation forecast heading into daybreak Sunday as stratus
continue to drop southward out of Iowa and Nebraska this morning.
Models generally having a hard time with this low-level moisture, but
RAP and HRRR have captured general trends well this evening. That
said, steering winds in the cloud layer continue to support a south
to southeast trajectory through daybreak which should bring the
stratus into KSTJ and perhaps as far south as the KC terminals.
Current ceilings right around 1500-2000 Ft AGL, and not expecting any
further lowering.
With winds remaining rather light out of the north, this stratus
could hang out into mid-morning but confidence on this a
significantly lower. Winds will begin to turn to the southeast by
midday with increasing mid-upr clouds through the evening hours.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...Dux
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE FORECAST.
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF GULF OF ALASKA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE IS A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BACKDOOR COOL FRONT FROM KVTN TO
KLEX. FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND THEN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. WINDS NEAR
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT LOOK TO REMAIN BORDER LINE SO WILL HOLD OFF
HIGHLIGHTS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN.
HIGHS IN THE 50S YESTERDAY TOOK CARE OF MOST OF THE SNOW COVER TO
THE WEST. PERSISTENT CLOUDS IN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CATEGORY THIS
MORNING AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON MAY INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION. MOST AREAS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
EXCEPT NORTH CENTRAL FROM BROKEN BOW TO ONEILL WHERE STRATUS AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE
LOW 50S. FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MAJOR ENERGY NORTH WITH CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA. TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN IN THE EARLY EVENING
OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AND THEN WILL SPREAD EAST OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
OVERALL THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY FAST NW FLOW WITH
NUMEROUS CLIPPERS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS. EACH SYSTEM WILL
BRING CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH A DRY LOWER LEVEL WILL LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS.
TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE EARLY IN THE WEEK...BECOMING CLOSER IF NOT
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MONDAY MORNING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE A SUBTLE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND WILL
ASSIST IN MIXING WARMING AIR ALOFT TO THE SFC. SNOW PACK IS DOWN
TO PILES SO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO COOLING EFFECT FROM THE SNOW. THUS
HAVE GONE WITH THE WARMER EC AND MAV GUIDANCE. MAV IS THE
WARMEST...HOWEVER I DID UNDERCUT THE MAV IN FAVOR OF THE EC AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM MELTING PILES TO LIMIT HEATING SLIGHTLY.
THINK THE MET GUIDANCE IS STILL SEEING THE EFFECT OF A SNOW
PACK...CONSIDERING GUIDANCE IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER. TUES AND
WED CONTINUE TO SEE MILD FEB CONDITIONS AS HIGHS INTO THE 50S. A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MAIN LOW MOVING ALONG
THE US/CAN BORDER. SOUNDINGS ARE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...SO WHILE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND.
WED NIGHT THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN
LOW AGAIN SLIDES ACROSS SRN CANADA...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH QPF PRODUCED. HOWEVER LOOKING AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL BE NEEDED TO MOISTEN THE
LOWER LEVELS. SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER WITH THE LIFT TO THE EAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS RESULTS IN A LESS THAN 12 HOUR EVENT. ONE
CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR ARRIVES
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH PRECIP TO LIKELY START OUT IN LIQUID
FORM...THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW. AFTER A SHORT BREAK ANOTHER FAST
MOVING CLIPPER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS DO
BRINGING THE MAIN LOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN ITS PREDECESSORS...ACROSS
S DAKOTA...GFS AND NEB...ECMWF. THIS RESULTS IN BETTER LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME CONCERNS ABOUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
LOW POPS FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OVER THE
COMING DAYS. 850 MB TEMPS DO FALL BACK BELOW ZERO FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA BEHIND THE SYSTEM...SO COOLER HIGHS IN THE 30S BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
THE BANK OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS HAS DROPPED INTO NCNTL NEB AS
EXPECTED. THE MODEL CONSENSUS ADVANCES THESE CLOUDS TO KVTN-KBBW.
IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH VFR
DEVELOPING ALL AREAS AROUND 15Z PLUS OR MINUS 3 HOURS DUE TO
MODEL UNCERTAINTIES.
THE LOCAL IFR IS ON THE WRN/SRN FRINGE OF THE CLOUD GROUP AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO NEB.
ALSO...THE RAP PROJECTS THESE CLOUDS TO ADVANCE TO KMER- KLBF BY
14Z AND THEN RETREATS THEM VERY SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR HIGHWAY 183
BY 22Z. THIS WOULD KEEP KONL-KANW-KBBW IN MVFR MOST OF THE DAY
SUNDAY. NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW THIS HAPPENING SO FOR NOW
THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE LEAST LIKELY FORECAST OUTCOME.
OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING.
THEREAFTER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NRN NEB
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CIGS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...SOME
WITH SQUALLS PRODUCING GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY EVENING. PERHAPS REACHING
KLBF BY O6Z SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1204 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IS ALSO NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 130KTS NEAR 250MB PER 12Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS ALONG THE MID LEVEL JET AXIS...BUT
MUCH OF THIS INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WEST OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
IS NOTED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.
THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA AND AS
A RESULT...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA IS BECOMING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE SURFACE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CLEARING OUR CWA...WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST THUS ALLOWING FOR A NORTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO THIS EVENING.
THIS WIND FIELD SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
QUICKLY MOVES OFF INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...THUS ALLOWING
FOR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS ACROSS MUCH OUR AREA
HEADING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY.
THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST
AND WITH LITTLE IF ANY APPRECIABLE OMEGA EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS SHOULD PROMOTE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGESTS A SOMEWHAT COOLER LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS COULD INFILTRATE EAST/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THUS RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURE READINGS ON SUNDAY
WHEN COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT WARMER WEATHER SHOULD BE OBSERVED
FARTHER SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE WELL
ESTABLISHED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...SUNDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS OUR
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED FARTHER
WEST/SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
THERE ARE THREE MAIN AREAS TO FOCUS ON FOR THIS PERIOD...LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND
THEN COOLER WEATHER/PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES GIVEN GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT. ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERY TYPE FEEL TO THE RAIN AND
SNOW GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MY SENSE THIS WILL BE LESS A
STEADY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BUT MORE HIT/MISS IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. MOST OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS EVENT WILL MOVE IN QUICK
BY LATE EVENING...AND EXIT QUICKLY...AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN INITIALLY BUT END UP A COMBO OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN NEAR FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES THE
OVERNIGHT TIMING. EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH THIS MOISTURE-LACKING
SYSTEM COULD HELP CHANGE WHAT RAIN IS LEFT TO SNOW QUICKER. KEPT
THE LIGHT...FEW TENTHS OF INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT OVERALL
ITS A DUSTING TYPE EVENT OF WET SNOW. WHATEVER FALLS WON/T BE
AROUND LONG.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...THE
FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THREE PRETTY NICE DAYS. THOUGH MONDAY
STARTS WITH A NORTH WIND...WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND A DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. AIDED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...THIS
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES NICELY. WENT ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS.
A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
THAT COULD DROP TEMPERATURES A SMIDGEN ON TUESDAY...MAINLY
NORTH...ALTHOUGH WE ARE LIBEL TO EXPERIENCE A VERY MILD START TO
THE DAY SO THAT COULD OFFSET ANY COOLING WITH ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD
SUNSHINE. ITS STILL ANOTHER WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY TEMPERATURE
WISE.
WEDNESDAY COULD BE ANOTHER DAY LIKE MONDAY DEPENDING UPON HOW
QUICKLY WARM SURGES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. ANOTHER DAY WELL INTO THE 50S IF NOT 60 DEGREES.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD IS UNSETTLED WITH LITTLE MODEL
CONSISTENCY REGARDING ANY OF THE FINE DETAILS. ONE AGREEMENT IS IT
WILL COOL DOWN...PROBABLY IN TWO WAVES. THE FIRST WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 40S ON THURSDAY...COOLER BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. THE 2ND WAVE OF COLD WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND IS QUITE A BIT COLDER...LIKELY RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND REACHING LOW/MID 30S RANGE AT BEST. THE
CHILLY AIR IS DIRECTLY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SURGE UP THE WEST COAST TO ALASKA AND DISLODGING THE COLD AIR DOWN
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THIS HAS BEEN THE
TREND PRETTY MUCH ALL WINTER. PRECIPITATION WISE...THERE IS VERY
LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONGST MODELS. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
ENTER THE PICTURE WITH THE INITIAL INFLUX OF COOLER AIR...FOLLOWED
BY A CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THE STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. THE SATURDAY EVENT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER SHOT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH A LITTLE BIT STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
THERE ARE SOME LOW MVFR/IFR CLOUDS SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
NEBRASKA THAT MIGHT MAKE IT INTO KGRI WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HAVE ADDED MVFR CEILINGS TO THE TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY BEGINNING AT 09Z. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW
LONG THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON...BUT BASED ON THE RAP MODEL
WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS ARE THE MORE LIKELY CLOUD BASE EARLY THIS
MORNING...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS. THE WIND
WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY SCATTER OUT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
THE FORECAST IS BASICALLY ON TRACK. CLOUDS HAVE BACKED TO THE
VALLEY. THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE 925MB-850MB RH HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE SITUATION...AND WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SKY FORECAST. THE
CURRENT CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY OR MOVE SLIGHTLY WEST OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE. NOT SURE THIS WILL
HAVE ANY AFFECT ON MIN TEMPS (JUST HOURLY TEMPS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS)...AND WILL RIDE WITH THE CURRENT TEMP FORECAST.
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN SIMILAR
WITH PAST MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...THE 21Z SREF HAS COME IN WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND THE NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
A BAND OF NEAR 6 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
FACT THERE WILL BE A UPPER JET STREAK...NOSE OF A 40-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET...AND WEAK TO MODERATE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS. THE ONLY
PROBLEM IS THAT MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE DEPICTING EXACTLY
WHERE THIS RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
LOCATED. WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATED SNOW TOTAL MAP ON FACEBOOK...BUT
ONLY MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR 6 INCH AMOUNTS. OVERALL IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY EAST OF THE VALLEY. WILL ALSO NEED TO
CONTINUE AND MONITOR WIND POTENTIAL WITHIN THE VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL (ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK AREA).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED THROUGH THE FCST AREA ATTM WITH NORTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH TO
NEARLY FARGO. EXPECT CLEARING TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AS COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN BY 12Z SUN. WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPS AND
SKY COVER TONIGHT. ATTM EXPECT A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO DVL BASIN ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS. THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA MAY HANG ON TO
SOME THIN STRATOCU AND THUS CONTINUED IDEA OF A BIT WARMER THERE.
NEXT SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE TODAY IN THE PAC NORTHWEST. EXPECT A
SHARP 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG 850 MB WARM ADVECTION PRECEDING IT. ENOUGH FORCING AND
MOISTURE TO GENERATE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DROPPING A
QUICK 1-3 INCHES RRV AND WEST AND 3-4 EAST OF THE RRV. ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SYSTEM OVER MINNESOTA FCST AREA IF AMOUNTS
REMAIN AS FCST. BUT SINCE EVENT IS PAST 00Z MON TOO EARLY TO DO
SO. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 KTS AND THIS WILL
CAUSE SOME BLSN ISSUES...BUT BLSN 1/2SM TOOL GIVES LOW
PERCENTAGES. BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN IN MANY CASES WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR AN OVER-PERFORMING WIND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
SNOW WILL END IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AS WARMER 925-850 MB AIRMASS MOVES IN.
DESPITE DEEP SNOWCOVER EXPECT DECENT SUN AND GIVEN TIME OF YEAR
HIGHS IN THE 30S SHOULD BE REASONABLE...NR 40 IN THE SOUTHWEST AS
OFTEN THESE WEST WINDS OVER ACHIEVE. THOUGH WOULD LIKE TO SEE 925
MB TEMPS A BIT WARMER...AS IT IS PROGGED TO PEAK 0C IN THE NORTH
AND 4C IN THE SOUTH.
MILD AIRMASS REMAINS INTO MON NIGHT-TUESDAY THOUGH 925 MB TEMPS
COOL A BIT TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH AND WINDS
TURN MORE NORTHWEST. COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP IN LAKE OF
THE WOODS REGION.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. ZONAL PATTERN FORECAST TO AMPLIFY. GFS
WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
BEEN SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS.
WILL TRIM BACK POPS IN THE EAST ON WED. ALSO WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON
FRI NIGHT AND SAT. RESPECTABLE WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THU .
INSIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS SINCE THE LAST RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
MVFR CIGS EAST OF THE VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE
AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THIS AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND GUSTY. THIS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW WITHIN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. THEN...SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES SUNDAY
EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/DK
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
925 PM MST SAT FEB 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST SAT FEB 15 2014
LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW BAND OF ST FROM K2WX TO KVTN SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO WEAK NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. 21Z
SREF AS WELL AS 00Z NAM/03Z RAP PICK UP ON THIS TREND...PUSHING
DECK ANOTHER 75 MILES OR SO. SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST UPDATED TO INCLUDE ST/PATCHY FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT FEB 15 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MN...
WITH ARCTIC BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES REGION AND A
STORM SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST. STRONG UPPER JET IS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS. THESE WINDS
HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY
BEING THE MILDER DAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY TONIGHT AS CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE WARMER AIR PUSHING IN. LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEMPS LIKELY RISING LATER
TONIGHT OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA AS WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY.
SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS EARLY
IN THE DAY AND THEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES. WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG UP OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD TO NEAR 60 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SD. SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT AND NORTHEASTERN WY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING LIFTED INDICES DROPPING CLOSE TO ZERO LATE
IN THE DAY OVER EASTERN WY...WITH EVEN A TINY AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER
EAST CENTRAL WY...SO IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND/OR
FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WILL
KEEP THAT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND SEE IF THAT
POTENTIAL HOLDS UP WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
OUT OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN SOME AREAS FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE SHOWERS
EXIT. SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST SAT FEB 15 2014
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BEFORE AN UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGE ENSUES. UPPER JET AND
ASSOCIATED IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE NE PAC UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING NEAR DAILY DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONTS. FORECAST MODELS AND MEAN
NAEFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES STILL FAVOR THE RETURN OF THE EASTERN
PAC/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A VERY
STRONG MID TROPOSPHERIC JET ADVECTS EAST OUT OF ASIA AND SUPPORTS
BREAKDOWN OF THE NE PAC UPPER TROUGH. THE RESULT OF THIS
TRANSITION WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION WITH
FAIRLY LONG TRAJECTORY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BULK OF CAA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NE OF THE REGION WITH A GLANCING BLOW OF COLD
AIR LOOKING MORE LIKELY AS THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE QUICKLY BIASES
EAST IN MOST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE...PER RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE NE
PAC/GULF OF ALASKA UPPER TROUGH.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BY FRIDAY. LEFT THE MON-WED PERIOD
MAINLY DRY ONLY OPTING TO RETAIN SOME LOW POPS OVER NE WY WED FOR A
SPLITTING IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. DID
BIAS WINDS UP MON AND TUE...WITH THE WINDIEST DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY
OVER THE SD PLAINS GIVEN CAA/PRESSURE RISE SETUP TIMED WITH DIURNAL
MIXING. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE WEEK
WITH MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PROGGED FOR ALL OF THE NW CONUS.
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY PER PRECIP CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO LACK STELLAR AGREEMENT OR CONSISTENCY PER
WAVE TIMING/STRENGTH/AND TRACK. BOTH MODELS DO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR UPPER TROUGH SPLITTING OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY-SAT...SHIFTING BETTER LSA AND UVM NORTH AND ESP SW OF THE FA.
HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THE FRIDAY PERIOD OVER WESTERN AREAS WHEN THE
STRONGEST UPPER IMPULSE IS PROGGED OVER THE REGION...WITH LOWER POPS
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRIDAY DAY PERIOD FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS
WILL TREND 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BY FRI-SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST SAT FEB 15 2014
BAND OF IFR ST/FG FROM K2WX TO KVTN WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT...BUT PROBABLY WON/T REACH KRAP TAF SITE. AS GRADIENT
INCREASES SUNDAY MORNING...ST/FG WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST OF CWA.
OUTSIDE OF ST/FG...VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SC/-SHRASN.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1255 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...OPTED TO DO A QUICK UPDATE OF THE FORECAST GRIDS AND
PRODUCTS AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY
COUNTIES OF EAST TN. THE LATEST RUC MODEL AND ACTUALLY THE 16/00Z
GFS MODEL BOTH TAKE THIS LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE
TN AND SW VA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS UNDER THE SNOW BANDS EARLIER
INDICATED THE SNOW WOULD GRADUALLY REACH THE SURFACE AFTER FALLING
FROM A MID DECK FOR ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO. KEPT ACCUMULATIONS TO
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS...BUT ALLOWED FOR UP TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY
OVER SW VA AND NRN MTNS OF E TN. SMOKIES NOT PROGGED TO BE UNDER
THE SNOW BANDS SO JUST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THERE AND LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. LOCALLY WE HAVE JUST UNDER 1/2 INCH OF NEW SNOW
ACCUMULATION AT OUR NWS OFFICE IN MORRISTOWN.
SPS ISSUED EARLIER STILL LOOKS GOOD...BUT WILL ALSO UPDATE OUR
GRAPHICAST.
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE...MOVING THROUGH EAST TN OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL AFFECT MAINLY NE TN. SNOW IS MOSTLY OVER AT
TYS BUT COULD DROP VSBY TO 3 MILES NEXT 2 HOURS. AT TRI THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS DROPPING VISIBILITY TO IFR
AROUND 8Z THEN IMPROVE AROUND 10Z. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
THIS MORNING AT CHA FIRST...AND THEN TYS BY MID MORNING...WITH TRI
HANGING ON TO CLOUDS UNTIL AROUND 00Z MONDAY.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG/TD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1130 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PASS ACROSS US OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. A THIRD SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1120 PM EST SATURDAY...
DECENT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
EVENING WILL BE FAST MOVING AND THERE IS ANOTHER MID LEVEL VORT
TRACKING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF TN WHICH IS BRINGING LIGHT
SNOW TO KNOXVILLE AND CROSSVILLE. THE 01Z HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS
WELL AND TAKES IT EAST INTO THE NC MTNS/FAR SW VA BY 4 AM...AND
WEAKENING IT. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WITH THE CLIPPER WILL TRACK INTO
NRN TN BY THIS TIME AND ACROSS SRN NC SUNDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE
MODELS CONSISTENCY IN PATH OF THE VORT WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC/VA TOMORROW MORNING...BUT EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND WESTOF BCB/ROA...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT FLURRIES-PATCHY LIGHT SNOW FURTHER SOUTH...WITH 00Z GFS
PRINTING OUT LIGHT QPF. THINKING DOWNSLOPE AND FAST MOVEMENT WILL
LIMIT SNOWFALL. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED AS IT HEADS THIS WAY BY
MORNING.
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY
INTO FAR SW VA...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING OVER THE VA PIEDMONT
AND ACROSS NC...WITH LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP ACROSS THE MTNS OF WV
INTO THE ALLEGHANYS OF BATH AND ALLEGHANY COUNTY.
FORECAST TEMPS WERE ON TRACK SO NOT MANY CHANGES THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...
SHORT WAVE STARTS OUT IN EASTERN TENNESSEE SUNDAY MORNING THEN WILL
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE
SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING MID ATLANTIC REGION IS UNDER A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE. STILL EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORT WAVE REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY/7PM MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE
WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE BY MONDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS IT OVER
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WHILE THE NAM HAS IS IN NORTHERN OHIO. EITHER
WAY...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
WHICH WILL ADD TO THE LIFT OVER THE AREA.
LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES SPARSE ENOUGH...EVEN IN THE
TYPICAL WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY.
STRONG 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ON MONDAY BUT SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE DO NOT ARRIVE BACK IN THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES BY MONDAY
NIGHT.
BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...850 MB SHOULD BE AROUND +7. SURFACE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY. WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EST SATURDAY...
WILL START WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS
REGION...WHILE A STALLED COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE NIGHT...
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY MORNING...HELPING THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING...OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...ONLY TO STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF FEBRUARY. EXPECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE TEMPERATURES REACH
INTO THE LOW 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE
3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER STILL. RIDGE TOPS WILL REMAIN WARMER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
AND THE PIEDMONT DECOUPLE FROM THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
BECOME COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1120 PM EST SATURDAY...
MVFR CIGS HANGING JUST NORTH OF BLF-BCB WHILE LWB REMAINS IN IT.
THE AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER WV IS DWINDLING SOME AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BY 09Z. NEXT UPSTREAM CLIPPER ALREADY
SPREADING MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS ERN KY WITH VFR CIGS. NOT FAR
BEHIND CIGS ARE DROPPING BELOW 3KFT OVER SOUTHERN KY/NRN TN.
APPEARS AT LEAST BLF/LWB WILL DROP BACK TO MVFR BY 11-14Z...WHILE
CIGS AT THE OTHER TERMINALS REMAIN VFR. LIGHT SNOW SEEMS A GOOD
BET AT LWB/BLF AND PERHAPS EVEN BCB...MAINLY LIGHT OR FLURRIES
WITH NOT REALLY A 30 MINUTE+ WINDOW OF SUB VFR VSBYS.
THIS CLIPPER EXITS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE COMMENCING
KEEPING BLF/LWB IN MVFR CIGS. GUSTY WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY FROM ROANOKE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF
IN THE EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...SO EXPECT SOME WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLF-BCB-LYH LINE...ALONG WITH SUB-VFR CIGS. AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES
MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS/WP
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...RCS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
448 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2014
.UPDATE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO KICK UP IN THE WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE AND
LATEST 3KM HRRR AND 06Z NAM SHOW WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH ON BOTH
LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKES WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH HERE AT
THE WFO. RAISED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING AS LAKE
WATERS WILL BE ROUGH AND CHOPPY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOHMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY WILL EXIT THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TODAY. THE STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT
INTO OREGON AND WASHINGTON THIS WEEK WITH SOME BREEZY AFTERNOONS,
BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF I-80 FOR
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM...
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WHERE THE WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT, SO
WILL EXPIRE THEM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA WITH
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH WITH ONLY LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2
INCHES.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM EXPECT SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TO LAST INTO
TUESDAY, BUT THE LOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN MODERATE. WHILE LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WINDS INCREASE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH 700 MB WINDS OF 25-40 KTS. THEREFORE, EXPECT AFTERNOONS TO BE
BREEZY WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD MAINLY BE OF
THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY, WITH MORE CLOUD COVER TUESDAY AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS MAY DRAG
A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH TO SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT MILD DAYS DUE TO DECENT MIXING FROM
THE WINDS. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT IT TO BE SEASONABLY COLD AS ONLY THIN
HIGH CLOUDS ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL MODERATE SOME DUE TO THICKER CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. WALLMANN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL
BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD BUT SHOULD END BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT EXITS AND UPPER FORCING DIMINISHES. AFTER
WEDNESDAY, A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AS RIDGE
BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
TRACK ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER THU-THU NIGHT. THEREFORE DRAMATICALLY CUT BACK ON
THE POPS, LEAVING ONLY A LOW END CHANCE FAR NORTHERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SOME
MID-HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME.
AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TODAY AS TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST.
RIDGE WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY THIS MORNING AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME TURBULENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA...MAINLY BEFORE
20Z. OTHERWISE VFR WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THERE
IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG AROUND KTRK LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOHMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PYRAMID LAKE
IN NVZ004.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1101 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING LEADING TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A COUPLE TO PERHAPS A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MAINLY DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LIKELY FOLLOWED BY SOME RAIN OR SNOW ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
SHORT WAVE AXIS NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING/FILLING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO. LAST BIT
OF SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WHILE
COLDER/VERY DRY AIRMASS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SPREADING DOWN INTO
NRN MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH/WEST. QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE CWA BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE TO START THE DAY. HOWEVER...NNE
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON (JUST ENOUGH OPEN WATER) HAS/IS BRINGING A
QUICK FLARE UP OF HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED STCU OVER NE LOWER
MICHIGAN AND SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PER RADAR AND SFC
OBS. HAVE TWEAKED WEATHER FORECAST TO ADD SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
ADJUST SKY FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. INCOMING DRY AIRMASS WILL
ULTIMATELY WIN OVER...BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
FORECAST GOING TO PLAN. DEEPER MOISTURE PULLED OUT OF NW
LOWER/EASTERN UPPER/..AND WILL OVER NE LOWER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THIS WILL END THE BETTER SNOWS...WITH EVEN LIGHTER SNOWS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUING FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD ALONG WITH
CLOUDY SKIES. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
...SUNSHINE FOR MANY BEHIND DEPARTING LIGHT SNOW...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
CURRENT WEATHER/SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING IS NOW WORKING
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. RUC ANALYSIS SEEMINGLY TOO STRONG WITH
OVERALL DEEP LAYER FORCING WHICH IS NOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...BASED ON
WEAKNESS OF OVERALL RADAR RETURNS. GRANTED...THE ACTIVITY HAS PICKED
UP JUST A LITTLE BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS GTV
BAY...WHERE THE BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK
SFC LOW (CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN) RESIDE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
VERY WEAK IN LAX PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS...LIGHT/VERY LIGHT
SNOWS. BACK EDGE OF THE ENHANCED DEEPER MOISTURE PER LATEST
SATELLITE DATA...ALREADY OUT OF EASTERN UPPER WITH LAST VESTIGES OF
3-5SM SNOWS NOW ENDING IN WESTERN CHIP/MAC COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. UPSTREAM...IN A SEEMINGLY UNFATHOMABLE CHANGE OF
WEATHER PATTERN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. YES. YES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...AND WARMTH...WAS IMPRESSIVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
WESTERN DAKOTAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE RETURN SRLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN MN...WAS RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. CONVERSELY...ON THE LIGHT WIND
FORWARD FLANK/LIGHT WIND SIDE..WERE TEMPERATURES IN THE 0 TO -10F
BELOW ZERO RANGE....AND AREAS OF STRATUS.
PATTERN EVOLUTION/WEATHER EXPECTATIONS: UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE/WAA/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND
EXITS THE REGION WITH DISSOLVING SFC LOW/ABSORPTION INTO DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. LIGHT/VERY LIGHT SNOWS WILL BE ENDING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE MORNING...OUT OF THE CWA AND INTO SAG BAY
AROUND ROUGHLY 16Z. IT IT`S WAKE...AGAIN...HINTS OF TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION WITH
LOADS OF DRY AIR ALOFT. GOTTA BELIEVE THAT WHATEVER SHALLOW CU CAN
FIRE OFF WITH SUNUP...WILL QUICKLY ERODE...IF IT FORMS AT ALL. THIS
WILL LEAVE NRN MICHIGAN IN A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AGAIN FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE AFTERNOON (LEAST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN THE SE CWA).
THESE CLEAR/CLEARING SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE EVENING
WITH DEEP/DRY ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 650MB/700MB. OF
COURSE CANNOT RULE OUT ANY PATCHY STRATUS...BUT IT LOOKS MORE CLEAR
THAN ANYTHING. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES IN WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW DROP RATHER EFFICIENTLY THROUGH THE EVENING...GETTING A GOOD
HEAD START. NEGATIVELY TILTING...MUCH TALKED ABOUT NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL BE RACING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG WARM FRONT WITH IMPRESSIVE 285-290K ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/NET ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING
AND DEVELOPING N-S ORIENTED SWATH OF SNOW MIXED WITH SOME SLEET.
CLOUDS ALOFT THICKEN OVERNIGHT...AND SLOW/STOP THE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. CAN SEE SOME -5 TO -15F READING FOR LOWS ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE CLEAR SKIES LAST LONGER...BUT
MAYBE JUST A TAD WARMER THAN THAT CONSIDERING THE CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
CHALLENGING FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH IS NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WHEN THE
PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW PROCESS OF WARMING UP USUALLY COMMENCES. THE
FIRST SYSTEM OF INTEREST MONDAY...IS LOOKING WAY WEAKER...NOW AN
OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE. MILDER TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND SYSTEM ON THURSDAY IS
TRENDING A BIT COOLER/LESS AMPLIFIED INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OVER
PRECIPITATION TYPE. COLDER AIR THEN LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HOW MUCH IT WILL WARM UP TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE ON THURSDAY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EXTENDED MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A MUCH
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY
MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT (THOUGH THE OUTLYING ECMWF REMAINS MUCH
DEEPER). THIS SPELLS LOWER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF
TWO TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST (MID TO LATE MORNING) TO EAST (SHORTLY
AFTER NOON) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST. LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A TEMPORARY SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN WITH MILDER AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT FOR THE MOST PART LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER...THOUGH
TROUGHS MOVING BY TO THE NORTH MAY COMPROMISE THE DRY PART OF THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS). HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVIDENCES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT TRACKS BY
TO OUR NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATEST TRENDS ARE HEDGING
TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED/LESS WARM SYSTEM...WITH A POSSIBLE SECONDARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH CUTTING OFF THE INFLOW
OF WARMER AIR. THIS OBVIOUSLY CASTS LOTS OF DOUBT ABOUT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST GENERAL WITH
RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND RAIN LIKELY SOUTH THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY IS
NOW EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH.
A PACIFIC RIDGE THEN BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STRENGTHENS NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING/COLD AIR
RETURNING TO THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FRIDAY
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS OF LIGHT SNOW AND CIGS IMPROVING THIS MORNING.
CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR AT PLN AND BACK WEST AND NORTH OF THERE.
DAYTIME MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MID DAY ALL TAF SITES. BELIEVE SKIES
WILL SCATTERED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL THICKEN
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BA
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...SD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
647 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE EXITING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FCST AREA. LINGERING MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A NNE FLOW OF -18C 8H TEMPS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR IS STILL SUPPORTING SOME LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW/FLURRIES OVER
THE MAINLY THE SE CWA AND ALSO SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO
NCNTRL PORTIONS OF UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...MID-LVL RDGG AND Q-VECT DIV AND
ASSOC MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE AS NOTED ON FCST SNDGS SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID
DIMINISHMENT OF ANY REMAINING LES OVER NCNTRL COUNTIES BY LATE
MORNING. UNTIL THEN...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR LIGHT
LES/FLURRIES. CONTINUED NNE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MAY ALLOW
SOME LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR NCNTRL COUNTIES
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE THRU AFTERNOON
HRS. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO BETTER PERFORMING REGIONAL GEM GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH HIGHS AROUND 10F NORTH TO NEAR 20F SW ALONG THE WI
BORDER.
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT. GFS IS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN REST OF MODELS WITH ONSET
OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING OF COLUMN FOR PCPN. GFS
APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT SO WILL SIDE MORE WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND OF ECMWF/REGIONAL GEM/NAM AND UKMET AND CARRY
POPS FOR MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH LIKELY POPS OF 60 PCT
NEAR KIWD BY 12Z MON. CONSENSUS QPF OF AROUND .07 INCH BETWEEN
06-12Z ALONG WITH EXPECTED SLR NEAR 17/1 SHOULD YIELD AROUND ONE
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT FOR KIWD AREA. MIN TEMPS IN
SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE EVENING OVER
THE WRN CWA AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR RISE LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASED
MIXING FROM TIGHTENING SRLY GRAD AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND
INCREASING WAA CLOUDS. LONGER PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER EAST HALF WHERE
BLO ZERO TEMPS AREA EXPECTED. A FEW OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD RAWS
SITES OVER ERN CWA COULD SEE MIN TEMPS OF -10F OR COLDER. AGAIN
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO BETTER PERFORMING CANADIAN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THIS WEEK AS TROUGHING THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE OVER GREAT LAKES FOR QUITE SOME TIME TAKES A BREAK.
TWO LARGER SCALE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND
AGAIN WEDNESDY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS LOOK TO COME THROUGH IN SPLIT FASHION...RESULTING IN THE
MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY IN RUN TO RUN PREDICTABILITY. AT THIS POINT
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD SNOW IS ON MONDAY. WETTER SYSTEM
FOR LATE THE WEEK NOT AS CLEAR CUT DUE TO THE SPLIT NATURE OF
SHORTWAVES AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FCST TO IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. SEEMS THAT THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD HOLDS
BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPS REACHING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE EARLY DECEMBER AT WFO MARQUETTE.
MONDAY...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIDES
EAST ACROSS CNTRL CONUS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...BUT SPLITS INTO TWO
PIECES OF ENERGY WHILE DOING SO. SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE FCST TO MISS UPR
MICHIGAN INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES. MODELS VARY WITH WHICH ONE HAS THE
MOST PUNCH. IF SOUTHERN WAVE IS STRONGER AS SHOWN BY ECMWF AND GEM
THEN STRONGEST MOISTURE INFLOW WOULD SETUP TO THE SOUTH OF UPR
MICHIGAN. IF NORTHERN WAVE IS STRONGER AS SHOWN BY GFS AND NAM THERE
IS A BETTER SHOT OF MORE LOW-LEVEL TEMP/MOISURE ADVECTION MAKING IT
INTO UPR MICHIGAN. ALL AREAS WILL SEE LGT SNOW DUE TO BROAD H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND PVA FM BOTH SHORTWAVES. THERE IS ALSO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH AT LEAST
2G/KG AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM WITH EITHER SCENARIO...MORE THOUGH IF
NORTHERN WAVE IS STRONGER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOT OF MID
LEVEL LIFT WITH PORTION OF UVM/MOISTURE IN THE DGZ. THIS IS LOOKING
LIKE A SOLID HIGHER-END ADVY FOR MUCH OF WEST AND CNTRL CWA. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS PROBABLY END UP OVER WESTERN CWA AND ALONG WI
BORDER...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING. MORE
SNOW WITH THIS MONDAY SYSTEM THOUGH. THOUGHT ABOUT A WATCH AS
MAJORITY OF SREF MEMBERS FOR KIMT ARE IN THE 5-7 INCH RANGE...BUT
THIS OUTPUT IS BIASED BY STRONGER NORTH/WETTER NAM IDEA AS MANY
HIGHER RES MEMBERS IN SREF ARE BASED OFF THE NAM CAMP. NO WATCH FOR
NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO/EHWO. IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE HIGHER AS IT FALLS ON A WEEKDAY.
GFS APPEARS TOO QUICK IN DEPARTING THE SYSTEM MONDAY EVENING...SO
HELD WITH SLOWER IDEA FROM ECMWF/GEM-NH FOR POPS. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SNOW WILL BE OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA THOUGH. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
FEW INCHES IN THE EVENING FOR THE EASTERN AND FAR SCNTRL CWA. EASY
TO SEE IF THE SYSTEM DOES TREND SLOWER...MAY SEE ISOLD SNOW AMOUNTS
OVER 6"/12HR...EXCEEDING OUR WARNING CRITERIA. NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THOUGH IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS TO GIVE
50 PCT CONFIDENCE OF THAT OCCURRING...SO THIS WAS ANOTHER REASON TO
NOT ISSUE A WATCH.
STARTING TO LOOK LIKE TUESDAY MAY END UP THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
COULD THIS BE THE DAY WE END OUR RECORD RUN OF SUB FREEZING DAYS? WE
WILL SEE. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS IN WESTERLY FLOW AND
SFC LOW SHOULD FORM UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS PLACES UPR
MICHIGAN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. MODELS HINTING THAT
THERE MAY BE LGT QPF OVER NORTHERN TIER ALONG BRIEFLY RETREATING H85
FRONT. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THIS. WELL THEY ARE SHOWING IT FOR AT
LEAST ONE RUN ANYWAY. PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN OVER THE NORTH.
WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN...TEMPS COULD
EASILY PUSH PAST THAT ELUSIVE FREEZING MARK AS 925-900MB TEMPS SURGE
UP TO AROUND 0C IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT SPREAD WITH SOME MOS GUIDANCE PUSHING MAX
TEMPS INTO LOWER 40S OVER WESTERN CWA. IF SKIES COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT
WOULD NOT RULE THAT OUT AT ALL. FOR NOW...PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE
GIVEN OUR PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUDS. EVEN SO RAISED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S...COLDEST
EAST AND WARMEST FAR WEST.
APPEARS QUIET BUT A BIT COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AS WEAK TROUGH CROSSES
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WITH READINGS IN THE 30S
AGAIN...THIS TIME COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE
ICE COVER. AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE SEEMS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS WE
ARE AHEAD OF PRIMARY TROUGH THAT MOVES IN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SAME ISSUE OF SPLIT SHORTWAVES THAT AFFECTS THE MONDAY FORECAST POPS
UP AGAIN FOR THE THURSDAY FORECAST. MODELS ARE JUMPING AROUND IN HOW
MUCH PHASING CAN OCCUR AND/OR WHICH WAVE IS THE DOMINANT ONE. LAST
COUPLE RUNS OF ECMWF AND GFS SEEMED TO BE TRENDING DRIER...BUT 00Z
RUN IS BACK TO WETTER IDEA. AT THIS POINT...HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT
CONSENSUS OF MODELS OFFERED UP LOOK FINE. WAVE IS STILL NORTH OF THE
ALLUTIAN ISLANDS SO WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE MODELS GET LOCKED IN.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT REALLY ANY OF THE POSSIBILITIES SHOWN IN TERMS OF
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND THERMAL FIELDS SO FAR FM THE MODELS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT...USED BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH YIELDED LIMITED CHANCES OF RAIN AND MAINLY A SNOW EVENT FOR
MUCH OF CWA...EVEN AS SFC TEMPS ON THURSDAY RISE AGAIN INTO THE 30S.
BASED ON 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES OVER LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS IT SEEMS THAT LESS OF A RAIN IDEA IS SHOWING UP...BUT AGAIN
THIS COULD CHANGE ONCE RAOBS BETTER SAMPLE THIS DISTURBANCE EARLY
THIS WEEK.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SW-NE MOVING SHORTWAVES/SFC WAVES IMPACTING GREAT
LAKES ON FRONT EDGE OF DEVELOPING LARGER SCALE TROUGH. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK GOOD GIVEN THIS PATTERN WITH
PTYPE BACK TO MOSTLY SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...NNE FLOW OF COLDER TEMPS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW/LAKE
CLOUDS AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN VFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME WAA LIGHT SNOW COULD REACH INTO KIWD LATE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
OVERALL...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING OVER EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR...BUT GALES ARE
NOT EXPECTED AS MAIN SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER CNTRL AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY TREND STRONGER LATE THIS WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. WITH THE LAKE ALMOST COMPLETELY
ICE COVERED...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
640 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING LEADING TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A COUPLE TO PERHAPS A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MAINLY DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LIKELY FOLLOWED BY SOME RAIN OR SNOW ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
FORECAST GOING TO PLAN. DEEPER MOISTURE PULLED OUT OF NW
LOWER/EASTERN UPPER/..AND WILL OVER NE LOWER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THIS WILL END THE BETTER SNOWS...WITH EVEN LIGHTER SNOWS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUING FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD ALONG WITH
CLOUDY SKIES. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
...SUNSHINE FOR MANY BEHIND DEPARTING LIGHT SNOW...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
CURRENT WEATHER/SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING IS NOW WORKING
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. RUC ANALYSIS SEEMINGLY TOO STRONG WITH
OVERALL DEEP LAYER FORCING WHICH IS NOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...BASED ON
WEAKNESS OF OVERALL RADAR RETURNS. GRANTED...THE ACTIVITY HAS PICKED
UP JUST A LITTLE BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS GTV
BAY...WHERE THE BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK
SFC LOW (CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN) RESIDE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
VERY WEAK IN LAX PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS...LIGHT/VERY LIGHT
SNOWS. BACK EDGE OF THE ENHANCED DEEPER MOISTURE PER LATEST
SATELLITE DATA...ALREADY OUT OF EASTERN UPPER WITH LAST VESTIGES OF
3-5SM SNOWS NOW ENDING IN WESTERN CHIP/MAC COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. UPSTREAM...IN A SEEMINGLY UNFATHOMABLE CHANGE OF
WEATHER PATTERN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. YES. YES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...AND WARMTH...WAS IMPRESSIVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
WESTERN DAKOTAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE RETURN SRLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN MN...WAS RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. CONVERSELY...ON THE LIGHT WIND
FORWARD FLANK/LIGHT WIND SIDE..WERE TEMPERATURES IN THE 0 TO -10F
BELOW ZERO RANGE....AND AREAS OF STRATUS.
PATTERN EVOLUTION/WEATHER EXPECTATIONS: UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE/WAA/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND
EXITS THE REGION WITH DISSOLVING SFC LOW/ABSORPTION INTO DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. LIGHT/VERY LIGHT SNOWS WILL BE ENDING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE MORNING...OUT OF THE CWA AND INTO SAG BAY
AROUND ROUGHLY 16Z. IT IT`S WAKE...AGAIN...HINTS OF TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION WITH
LOADS OF DRY AIR ALOFT. GOTTA BELIEVE THAT WHATEVER SHALLOW CU CAN
FIRE OFF WITH SUNUP...WILL QUICKLY ERODE...IF IT FORMS AT ALL. THIS
WILL LEAVE NRN MICHIGAN IN A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AGAIN FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE AFTERNOON (LEAST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN THE SE CWA).
THESE CLEAR/CLEARING SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE EVENING
WITH DEEP/DRY ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 650MB/700MB. OF
COURSE CANNOT RULE OUT ANY PATCHY STRATUS...BUT IT LOOKS MORE CLEAR
THAN ANYTHING. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES IN WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW DROP RATHER EFFICIENTLY THROUGH THE EVENING...GETTING A GOOD
HEAD START. NEGATIVELY TILTING...MUCH TALKED ABOUT NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL BE RACING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG WARM FRONT WITH IMPRESSIVE 285-290K ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/NET ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING
AND DEVELOPING N-S ORIENTED SWATH OF SNOW MIXED WITH SOME SLEET.
CLOUDS ALOFT THICKEN OVERNIGHT...AND SLOW/STOP THE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. CAN SEE SOME -5 TO -15F READING FOR LOWS ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE CLEAR SKIES LAST LONGER...BUT
MAYBE JUST A TAD WARMER THAN THAT CONSIDERING THE CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
CHALLENGING FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH IS NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WHEN THE
PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW PROCESS OF WARMING UP USUALLY COMMENCES. THE
FIRST SYSTEM OF INTEREST MONDAY...IS LOOKING WAY WEAKER...NOW AN
OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE. MILDER TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND SYSTEM ON THURSDAY IS
TRENDING A BIT COOLER/LESS AMPLIFIED INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OVER
PRECIPITATION TYPE. COLDER AIR THEN LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HOW MUCH IT WILL WARM UP TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE ON THURSDAY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EXTENDED MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A MUCH
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY
MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT (THOUGH THE OUTLYING ECMWF REMAINS MUCH
DEEPER). THIS SPELLS LOWER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF
TWO TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST (MID TO LATE MORNING) TO EAST (SHORTLY
AFTER NOON) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST. LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A TEMPORARY SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN WITH MILDER AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT FOR THE MOST PART LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER...THOUGH
TROUGHS MOVING BY TO THE NORTH MAY COMPROMISE THE DRY PART OF THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS). HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVIDENCES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT TRACKS BY
TO OUR NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATEST TRENDS ARE HEDGING
TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED/LESS WARM SYSTEM...WITH A POSSIBLE SECONDARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH CUTTING OFF THE INFLOW
OF WARMER AIR. THIS OBVIOUSLY CASTS LOTS OF DOUBT ABOUT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST GENERAL WITH
RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND RAIN LIKELY SOUTH THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY IS
NOW EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH.
A PACIFIC RIDGE THEN BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STRENGTHENS NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING/COLD AIR
RETURNING TO THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FRIDAY
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS OF LIGHT SNOW AND CIGS IMPROVING THIS MORNING.
CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR AT PLN AND BACK WEST AND NORTH OF THERE.
DAYTIME MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MID DAY ALL TAF SITES. BELIEVE SKIES
WILL SCATTERED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL THICKEN
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SD
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...SD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
859 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRIMARILY
LIGHT RAIN TO NEBRASKA ZONES TONIGHT.
TODAY...AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM. THIS WILL TURN OUR WINDS TO SOUTHERLY OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
WITH INCREASING WINDS BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MIXING WITH MIXING ONLY TO AROUND 875 TO 900
MB. THE DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS YESTERDAY WITH DEEP MIXING WAS
CERTAINLY MORE SUPPORTIVE OF GREATER WARMTH THAN WHAT THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL GET US TODAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT STILL NOT A BAD
DAY WITH HIGHS FROM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SOUTHWEST. IN OTHER WORDS...EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO THE MID
50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS NOT A VERY DEEP WAVE AND IT IS
VERY PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL PREVENT IT FROM TAPPING INTO ANY
SOUTHERN MOISTURE SUPPLY. IT IS ALSO A WARM SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR CARRYING WITH IT ABOVE FREEZING 850 MB AIR. IN FACT THE PROFILE
IS INITIALLY SO WARM PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
CALL FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN. THE PROFILE WILL COOL AS IT FURTHER
SATURATES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW...BUT SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR ANY SNOW TO ACCUMULATE IF THE RAIN EVEN CAN CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THEREFORE...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS NEBRASKA
ZONES AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP KANSAS ZONES DRY TONIGHT. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRIMARILY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA ZONES WITH MOST AREAS BEING LUCKY
IF THEY EVEN SEE A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
NOTEWORTHY ITEMS OVER THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE COOL DOWN EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK IS ALSO OF INTEREST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...WE WILL EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR SOUTH COULD BE
IN THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BOTH LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS. THEREAFTER...A PATTERN CHANGE
WILL BEGIN AS WE SEE A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO
THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE COVERAGE AREA. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE 30S FOR A HIGH.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE TRI-CITIES RANGE FROM ABOUT 40 TO
42 DEGREES...WHILE LOWS RANGE FROM ABOUT 17 TO 20 DEGREES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
LOOKING AT THE PATTERN ALOFT...WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE EXITING THE REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE PUSHING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...MONDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE...WITH WINDS SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND
20 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. BEYOND MONDAY...WE ARE STUCK IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT UNTIL OUR NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO PASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE....BUT THIS FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE AS STRONG AS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AS THE WAVE PASSES...THERE WILL
BE A 12 HOUR TIMEFRAME WHERE PRECIPITATION IS BEST SUITED TO FALL
ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE AIR IS NOT ENTIRELY SATURATED DURING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SECOND WAVE...AND THIS DRY AIR COULD RESULT IN A PROBLEM AS FAR
AS THE FORECAST GOES. PERHAPS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO HELP INDUCE PRECIPITATION. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
IS VERY SMALL AND THERE COULD EASILY BE NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR CWA. IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL...IT WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS
RAIN...THEN THE CWA WILL BE SPLIT BETWEEN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR NORTH...AND RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. AFTER 12Z ON
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL OFF THE EAST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN FRINGE IN CASE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS STILL ONGOING AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS STILL LOOKING
RATHER LOW...PRIMARILY DUE TO INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. NEVERTHELESS...STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...ALBEIT THIS IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY AT THIS POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN BUILD MORE CONSISTENCY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SATURDAY WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION.
SIMILAR STORY HERE WITH A LACK OF CONTINUITY BETWEEN MODEL OUTPUT.
GFS PAINTS A DRY SOLUTION...WHEREAS THE ECMWF RESULTS IN QPF ACROSS
THE CWA AS ANOTHER WAVE PASSES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WAS VERY
SIMILAR A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO...SO THIS WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
WE CONTINUE TO GET A LACK OF CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC GOING
FORWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
UPDATE...AN IFR CEILING NEAR 500FT AGL IS APPROACHING GRI FROM THE
EAST AND MAY IMPACT GRI THROUGH MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD
WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS 15-17Z...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE UPGRADED
TO A PREVAILING IFR IF IT APPEARS IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME AT GRI.
THE LOW IFR/MVFR CLOUDS HAVE STALLED THEIR SOUTHWEST ADVANCE JUST
NORTHEAST OF KGRI. THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW FOR A SCATTERED DECK OF
LOW CLOUDS AT KGRI THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN CASE A FEW OF
THESE CLOUDS SLIP IN...BUT WILL KEEP LOW BKN CEILINGS OUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW. THE RAP MODEL CONTINUES TO BRING SOME OF THESE LOW
CLOUDS INTO KGRI...BUT THIS HAS YET TO HAPPEN THUS FAR. THE WIND
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MAY LOWER CEILINGS SOME AND BRING SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...BUT OVERALL SHOULD NOT BE TOO BIG OF A DEAL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...WESELY/BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
510 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRIMARILY
LIGHT RAIN TO NEBRASKA ZONES TONIGHT.
TODAY...AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM. THIS WILL TURN OUR WINDS TO SOUTHERLY OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
WITH INCREASING WINDS BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MIXING WITH MIXING ONLY TO AROUND 875 TO 900
MB. THE DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS YESTERDAY WITH DEEP MIXING WAS
CERTAINLY MORE SUPPORTIVE OF GREATER WARMTH THAN WHAT THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL GET US TODAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT STILL NOT A BAD
DAY WITH HIGHS FROM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SOUTHWEST. IN OTHER WORDS...EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO THE MID
50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS NOT A VERY DEEP WAVE AND IT IS
VERY PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL PREVENT IT FROM TAPPING INTO ANY
SOUTHERN MOISTURE SUPPLY. IT IS ALSO A WARM SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR CARRYING WITH IT ABOVE FREEZING 850 MB AIR. IN FACT THE PROFILE
IS INITIALLY SO WARM PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
CALL FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN. THE PROFILE WILL COOL AS IT FURTHER
SATURATES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW...BUT SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR ANY SNOW TO ACCUMULATE IF THE RAIN EVEN CAN CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THEREFORE...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS NEBRASKA
ZONES AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP KANSAS ZONES DRY TONIGHT. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRIMARILY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA ZONES WITH MOST AREAS BEING LUCKY
IF THEY EVEN SEE A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
NOTEWORTHY ITEMS OVER THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE COOL DOWN EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK IS ALSO OF INTEREST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...WE WILL EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR SOUTH COULD BE
IN THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BOTH LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS. THEREAFTER...A PATTERN CHANGE
WILL BEGIN AS WE SEE A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO
THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE COVERAGE AREA. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE 30S FOR A HIGH.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE TRI-CITIES RANGE FROM ABOUT 40 TO
42 DEGREES...WHILE LOWS RANGE FROM ABOUT 17 TO 20 DEGREES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
LOOKING AT THE PATTERN ALOFT...WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE EXITING THE REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE PUSHING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...MONDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE...WITH WINDS SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND
20 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. BEYOND MONDAY...WE ARE STUCK IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT UNTIL OUR NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO PASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE....BUT THIS FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE AS STRONG AS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AS THE WAVE PASSES...THERE WILL
BE A 12 HOUR TIMEFRAME WHERE PRECIPITATION IS BEST SUITED TO FALL
ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE AIR IS NOT ENTIRELY SATURATED DURING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SECOND WAVE...AND THIS DRY AIR COULD RESULT IN A PROBLEM AS FAR
AS THE FORECAST GOES. PERHAPS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO HELP INDUCE PRECIPITATION. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
IS VERY SMALL AND THERE COULD EASILY BE NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR CWA. IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL...IT WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS
RAIN...THEN THE CWA WILL BE SPLIT BETWEEN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR NORTH...AND RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. AFTER 12Z ON
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL OFF THE EAST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN FRINGE IN CASE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS STILL ONGOING AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS STILL LOOKING
RATHER LOW...PRIMARILY DUE TO INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. NEVERTHELESS...STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...ALBEIT THIS IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY AT THIS POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN BUILD MORE CONSISTENCY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SATURDAY WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION.
SIMILAR STORY HERE WITH A LACK OF CONTINUITY BETWEEN MODEL OUTPUT.
GFS PAINTS A DRY SOLUTION...WHEREAS THE ECMWF RESULTS IN QPF ACROSS
THE CWA AS ANOTHER WAVE PASSES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WAS VERY
SIMILAR A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO...SO THIS WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
WE CONTINUE TO GET A LACK OF CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC GOING
FORWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
THE LOW IFR/MVFR CLOUDS HAVE STALLED THEIR SOUTHWEST ADVANCE JUST
NORTHEAST OF KGRI. THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW FOR A SCATTERED DECK OF
LOW CLOUDS AT KGRI THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN CASE A FEW OF
THESE CLOUDS SLIP IN...BUT WILL KEEP LOW BKN CEILINGS OUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW. THE RAP MODEL CONTINUES TO BRING SOME OF THESE LOW
CLOUDS INTO KGRI...BUT THIS HAS YET TO HAPPEN THUS FAR. THE WIND
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MAY LOWER CEILINGS SOME AND BRING SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...BUT OVERALL SHOULD NOT BE TOO BIG OF A DEAL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
420 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRIMARILY
LIGHT RAIN TO NEBRASKA ZONES TONIGHT.
TODAY...AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM. THIS WILL TURN OUR WINDS TO SOUTHERLY OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
WITH INCREASING WINDS BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MIXING WITH MIXING ONLY TO AROUND 875 TO 900
MB. THE DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS YESTERDAY WITH DEEP MIXING WAS
CERTAINLY MORE SUPPORTIVE OF GREATER WARMTH THAN WHAT THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL GET US TODAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT STILL NOT A BAD
DAY WITH HIGHS FROM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NORTHEAST TO AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SOUTHWEST. IN OTHER WORDS...EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO THE MID
50S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS NOT A VERY DEEP WAVE AND IT IS
VERY PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WILL PREVENT IT FROM TAPPING INTO ANY
SOUTHERN MOISTURE SUPPLY. IT IS ALSO A WARM SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR CARRYING WITH IT ABOVE FREEZING 850 MB AIR. IN FACT THE PROFILE
IS INITIALLY SO WARM PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
CALL FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN. THE PROFILE WILL COOL AS IT FURTHER
SATURATES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW...BUT SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR ANY SNOW TO ACCUMULATE IF THE RAIN EVEN CAN CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THEREFORE...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS NEBRASKA
ZONES AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP KANSAS ZONES DRY TONIGHT. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRIMARILY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA ZONES WITH MOST AREAS BEING LUCKY
IF THEY EVEN SEE A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
NOTEWORTHY ITEMS OVER THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE COOL DOWN EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK IS ALSO OF INTEREST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...WE WILL EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR SOUTH COULD BE
IN THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BOTH LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS. THEREAFTER...A PATTERN CHANGE
WILL BEGIN AS WE SEE A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO
THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE COVERAGE AREA. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE 30S FOR A HIGH.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE TRI-CITIES RANGE FROM ABOUT 40 TO
42 DEGREES...WHILE LOWS RANGE FROM ABOUT 17 TO 20 DEGREES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
LOOKING AT THE PATTERN ALOFT...WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE EXITING THE REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE PUSHING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...MONDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE...WITH WINDS SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 AND
20 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. BEYOND MONDAY...WE ARE STUCK IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT UNTIL OUR NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO PASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE....BUT THIS FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE AS STRONG AS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AS THE WAVE PASSES...THERE WILL
BE A 12 HOUR TIMEFRAME WHERE PRECIPITATION IS BEST SUITED TO FALL
ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE AIR IS NOT ENTIRELY SATURATED DURING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SECOND WAVE...AND THIS DRY AIR COULD RESULT IN A PROBLEM AS FAR
AS THE FORECAST GOES. PERHAPS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO HELP INDUCE PRECIPITATION. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
IS VERY SMALL AND THERE COULD EASILY BE NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
OUR CWA. IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL...IT WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS
RAIN...THEN THE CWA WILL BE SPLIT BETWEEN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR NORTH...AND RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. AFTER 12Z ON
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL OFF THE EAST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN FRINGE IN CASE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS STILL ONGOING AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS STILL LOOKING
RATHER LOW...PRIMARILY DUE TO INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. NEVERTHELESS...STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...ALBEIT THIS IS CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY AT THIS POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN BUILD MORE CONSISTENCY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SATURDAY WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION.
SIMILAR STORY HERE WITH A LACK OF CONTINUITY BETWEEN MODEL OUTPUT.
GFS PAINTS A DRY SOLUTION...WHEREAS THE ECMWF RESULTS IN QPF ACROSS
THE CWA AS ANOTHER WAVE PASSES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WAS VERY
SIMILAR A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO...SO THIS WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
WE CONTINUE TO GET A LACK OF CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC GOING
FORWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014
THERE ARE SOME LOW MVFR/IFR CLOUDS SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
NEBRASKA THAT MIGHT MAKE IT INTO KGRI WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HAVE ADDED MVFR CEILINGS TO THE TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY BEGINNING AT 09Z. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW
LONG THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON...BUT BASED ON THE RAP MODEL
WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS ARE THE MORE LIKELY CLOUD BASE EARLY THIS
MORNING...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS. THE WIND
WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY SCATTER OUT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
942 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TURNING COLDER ON NORTH WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN
MOST VALLEY AREAS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL ARRIVE EARLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EST SUNDAY...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA HAS
INDUCED N-NW WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. LATEST RAP INDICATES 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C AT
14Z...PROGGED TO DROP TO -17 TO -18C BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SKIES
HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WEST...WITH LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NERN
VT...INCLUDING AT MORRISVILLE AND NEWPORT. WILL MAINTAIN BROKEN
CLOUD COVER ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE WILL HELP OFFSET LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
SOMEWHAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WITH WELL-
MIXED CONDITIONS IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY.
GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
HELPING TO BRING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GETTING DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. IN THE ADKS...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EAST...DECREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NRN NY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS
AS MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING WAVE MOVES EAST...EXITING ERN VT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. IF THESE COLDER TEMPS IN THE ADKS
COINCIDE WITH WIND SPEEDS THAT TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...WIND
CHILLS MAY FALL TO COLDER THAN -20F...AND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED. AT THE SUMMITS TEMPS WILL BE EVEN COLDER WITH 850MB WIND
OF 20-30KTS LEADING TO EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILLS.
DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
AREA...BUT A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE OUT OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
TO MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL WARM TEMPS MONDAY NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY REACHING THE 20S-L30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EST SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF MODEL HAVING A
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT... WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS THIS FEATURE ALREADY APPROACHING
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER EMF
SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. EMF AND GFS MODELS
SHOWING A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION
WILL SEE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING... SO WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. EMF
AND GFS MODELS BOTH SHOWING A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION BY 18Z FRIDAY. SO PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE LOWER
THAN THE SUPER- BLEND GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY...AS BOTH THE EMF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALREADY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z FRIDAY. GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING...THIS WILL ALSO
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS
MOS EXTENDED FORECAST GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT LOWER MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA 969 MB OFF THE
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND BY 00Z MONDAY. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL BE AREAS OF
UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...WITH AREAS OF
IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY AFTER 14Z SUNDAY TIL 00Z
MONDAY. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KNOTS AFTER 00Z MONDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
AS SKIES BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
958 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
DUAL POL RADAR RETURNS SHOW NEARLY UNIFORM HYDROMETEORS WHICH
SUGGEST RETURNS COULD BE SNOW ALOFT WHICH SHOWS UP AT ESTEVAN.
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY SURFACE REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET YET BUT
THE FOUR BEARS BRIDGE NDOT SITE SUGGEST SOME FREEZING ROAD SURFACE
CONDITIONS. THE RAP MODEL IS PRETTY WARM AT H850...WHICH MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST WITH THE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO CURRENT GRIDS SEEM
TO BE PARSED OUT WELL WITH SNOW NORTHWEST AND FREEZING RAIN WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE THIS THINKING UNTIL SURFACE
OBS SHOW SOME GROUND TRUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR IN EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES. A FEW
LOCATIONS REPORTING SOME LIGHT SNOW UNDER THE INITIAL WARM
ADVECTION BAND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SO EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THIS
MORNING. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH FOG REPORTED IN HETTINGER...DICKINSON AND NOW GLEN ULLIN.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOOK IN LINE. LATEST HRRR/RAP INDICATE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MONTANA. CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. FARTHER WEST LOW
CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER HAVE PERSISTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WERE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH
EXTENDED FROM ALBERTA SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO CENTRAL
WYOMING.
THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND REACH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY EVENING BEFORE
EXITING EAST TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH...THEN BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEN WESTERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT VORTICITY AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. TONIGHT THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHIFT TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
A COMPLICATED TEMPERATURE PROFILE SETS UP AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. LOOKING AT NAM AND GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE COULD SEE A MIX OF
MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NORTH CENTRAL WOULD LIKELY SEE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET - BUT CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SMALL DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER BY EVENING WITH THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A MIX OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING...WITH
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE/PLACEMENT. THE TIMING
OF THE WARM AIR MOVING IN WILL AFFECT THIS GREATLY. DECIDED TO KEEP
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBILITIES. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST AS PRECIPITATION
OCCURS TO DETERMINE A TREND IN PRECIPITATION TYPE/EXTENT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD (MONDAY-TUESDAY) DRY...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BREEZY AT TIMES WITH A
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. CAN NOT RULE OUT A SPOTTY RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH...AS IMPULSES RACE THROUGH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
FOLLOWED BY A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIPITATION (RAIN OR
SNOW) ALONG AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WED DAYTIME...FOLLOWED BY A
SHOT OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE ARE SOME
PRETTY BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH...KEEPING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE STATE. THE
GFS/GLOBAL GEM BOTH DEPICT A DRY SLOT AFTER THE INITIAL WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...THEN BRING THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME PERIOD (WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING) FOR BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM
DEPICT STRONG GRADIENT FORCING COMBINED WITH THE WRAP AROUND SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD FOR THURSDAY...ABOUT 10-15F DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS
FORECAST MONDAY-WED.
LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK...THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. RESULTANT WEATHER
WITH THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMALS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP ANY STRONG
STORM SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
AS WAVES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
MULTIPLE CHALLENGES AND HAZARDS TO AVIATION TODAY. AT 9 AM CST...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA. RADAR INDICATED PRECIPITATION
WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN KISN-KMOT.
ALSO A LARGE AREA OF IFR CEILINGS WERE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WIDELY SCATTERED MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET POSSIBLE KDIK-KBIS-KJMS WITH MAINLY SNOW KMOT...AND
RAIN/SNOW KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PORTLAND OR
542 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2014
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS
BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES.EXPECT DECREASING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT. THE NEXT STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN...AS
WELL AS PLENTY OF CASCADE SNOW. A MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE THIRD FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH SNOW
LEVELS LIKELY DROPPING INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS MAINTAINING MODERATE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE HAVE A BIT OF KICK WITH
THEM...PRODUCING QUARTER TO EVEN HALF INCH HAIL AS REPORTED NEAR
NEWPORT EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD START TO EASE SOME
AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW SHOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAK AND SHORT LIVED RIDGING BUILDS. QUICK ON ITS
HEELS IS A WARM FRONT OFFSHORE. THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE S WA
CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FEET HAS BEEN GOING WELL...WITH SURPRISE LAKES
SNOTEL SHOWING ABOUT 12" OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. SNOW LEVELS HAVE COME
DOWN WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND THIS IS ALSO
THE CASE IN THE OREGON CASCADES WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 2-5" HAS FALLEN.
SNOW LEVELS CONFIRMED BY OBS TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000
FEET. SNOW ACCUMS THIS MORNING WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE...AND THUS
WILL NOT ADD ANY ADVISORIES BUT EXPECT SNOW AT THE PASSES.
NOW ANY TIME YOU HAVE RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW AND STRONG
UPPER JET WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
RIDE ALONG THESE ZONES AND CAN BE CHALLENGING TO KNOW QUITE WHERE
THEY HEAD ONSHORE. WE WON`T BE SEEING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS TAKING
PLACE LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY WITH A DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
AND THUS ANY SURFACE LOWS WILL BE WEAKER...BUT CAN LOCALLY ENHANCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. BUT WE WILL HAVE SEVERAL
DECENT WAVES PASSING BY ALONG AND TO OUR NORTH. THE LEAD WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAYS...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP WITH THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND SEVERAL
TO FOLLOW THIS WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN TIER.
THEREFORE OUR HIGHEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM INITIALLY IS THE WINDS.
I LIKE THE EVENING SHIFTS EARLIER THOUGHTS ON THIS. 925/950MB FLOW IN
THE COASTAL JET WERE DEPICTED AT 83/73KT RESPECTIVELY. THE FLOW
YESTERDAY WAS ALSO MARKEDLY STABLE IN THE WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME.
TODAY WE ARE AND WILL REMAIN QUITE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE. STABILITY
WILL WEAKEN SOME AS THE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE PASSES THROUGH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND SO THE LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT SOME BLOCKING AND
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT. WE DO SEE SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE STILL EASILY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT THE EXTREME WINDS FOUND ON THE HEADLANDS YESTERDAY
WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT. THAT SAID THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE
MORE PRONE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF MORE SOUTHWESTERLY HIGH WINDS. HIGH
WIND WATCH IS UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING BELOW
HIGH WINDS...THOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE THERE TOO. AS FOR STRONGER WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE GRADIENTS SUN/SUN NIGHT.
NONETHELESS...THE 00Z UW WRFGFS RUN SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 40-50 KT
GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUN EVENING. THE RAP SHOWS THE
GRADIENT GETTING A BIT LESS SOUTHEASTERLY AND TARGETS THE CENTRAL
VALLEY FROM SALEM NORTH TO THE SOUTH METRO AREA OF PORTLAND. THE GFS
HINTS AT THIS TOO BUT IT IS LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IT
ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE INDIVIDUAL SURFACE LOWS TRACK.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SIMILAR VALUES TO THOSE SEEN YESTERDAY AND THERE
WERE ONLY A FEW GUSTS THAT REACHED OVER 45 MPH. COULD GO EITHER WAY
AND IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK TO SEE IF
ANY SMALLER SCALE LOWS FORM THAT WILL HELP TO ORIENT THE GRADIENT.
FOR NOW WILL MENTION 40-45 MPH. THE THEME IS WINDIER CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS.
THE NEXT IMPACT WILL THEN BE FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTER A PERIOD
OF MODEST RAINFALL WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PORTION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
WHEN THE WINDS START TO REALLY PICKUP...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES. THIS IS NOT YOUR CLASSIC
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SITUATION WITH SUPER HIGH PW VALUES. BUT WHAT THIS
SYSTEM IS LACKING FROM IN MOISTURE...IT MAY MAKE UP ENOUGH IN A
STRONGER FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AND ALSO BETTER LAPSE RATES
WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE MODELS IDEA OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA WILL BE FIRMLY ROOTED IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOW LOOKING AT
THE 4KM EMC WRF REFLECTIVITY DEPICTS A VERY INTENSE BAND OF RAINFALL
WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WE FIRST GET IN ON A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN THE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS POINTED
NORTH OF THE AREA INITIALLY IN THE EVENING. IT IS ORIENTED PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND THUS THIS BAND WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING
INITIALLY IT WILL THEN SAG SOUTH AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
NEAR...WHICH MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS STARTING TO
OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING OUR FOCUS TO NOT ONLY POTENTIAL
RIVER FLOODING FOR S WA AND N OR COASTAL RIVERS...BUT THESE RATES ARE
CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF URBAN AND STREET FLOODING. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER..ALL IT WILL TAKE IS A 1-3 INCH EVENT TO CAUSE AT LEAST A
COUPLE RIVERS TO COME CLOSE TO FLOOD IF NOT GET OVER. AND THERE ARE
SEVERAL WAVES THAT WILL BE RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THAT WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ON THE SAME AREAS WHEREAS THIS WAS NOT THE CASE
ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT IN WATCHING AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. WITH THE STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW...SOME OF
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SHIELD THE VALLEY A BIT...BUT WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE PASSING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY/SQUALLY TYPE PRECIPITATION EVEN FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE RIGHT DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
MEANWHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL FINALLY GET A SOLID DUMPING OF SNOWFALL.
HAVE UPGRADED THE S WA CASCADES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR 1-2 FT
OF SNOW. HAVE LEFT THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES IN A WATCH...AS IT IS
NOT CLEAR HOW HEAVY THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. THAT
BEING SAID MONDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF PRETTY HEAVY SNOW
WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1" PER HOUR...BUT WILL NEED TO SEE HOW LONG
THIS LAST AS THE PRECIP AXIS EASES AS YOU HEAD SOUTH. TOTALS STILL
LOOK TO APPROACH 1 FOOT IN SPOTS...POSSIBLY A BIT MORE.
THE FRONT CLEARS LATER MONDAY FOR A BREAK BUT ANOTHER WET SYSTEM IS
ON ITS HEELS FOR TUESDAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY BY
TUESDAY NIGHT./KMD
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FEW SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN WET AND COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM IS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER AND MORE
SHOWERS...DROPPING SLOW LEVELS TO 800 TO 1000 FT. A BUILDING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AND LIKELY LEADING TO
A PERIOD OF DRYING. 27/KMD
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF PACKAGE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS UNDER POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY CONDITIONS. VFR EXCEPT UNDER A
DIRECT HIT FROM A MODERATE SHOWER. THERE HAVE BEEN PUBLIC REPORTS OF
HAIL WITHIN THE SOME SHOWERS BUT SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY FOR
INDIVIDUAL TAF TERMINALS IS RATHER LOW. A RELATIVE LULL FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE A WARM FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE FRONT
NEARS...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND ENHANCE SOUTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE COAST
WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45 KT OCCURRING EARLY EVENING AT KAST AND KONP.
INLAND TERMINALS WILL SEE GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT...AGAIN MAINLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CIGS
FALLING BELOW MVFR THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. ALSO SEEMS LIKE WINDS
WILL KEEP REASONABLE VSBYS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL BRIEF MVFR UNDER
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING DECREASING CIGS ALONG WITH THE RAIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND THREATEN CROSSWIND LIMITS FOR THE
10/28 RUNWAYS.
/JBONK
&&
.MARINE...SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF SUB GALE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
WIDESPREAD GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOLID SOUTHERLY GALES AGAIN BY
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COASTAL JET WILL DEVELOP
EARLY THIS EVENING PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE INNER WATERS BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET 50+ KT GUSTS AND HAVE DECIDED
TO LIMIT THE STORM WARNING TO THE INNER WATERS WHILE MAINTAINING
THE GALES FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS CURRENTLY 15 TO 18 FT. WITH INCREASED WINDS LATER...SEAS
WILL BUILD. LIKELY CLOSE TO 20 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EASILY
20 TO 25 FT THIS EVENING. MAY GET BRIEF TIMES OF 25 TO 30 FT SEAS
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS RATHER LOW ON THE SPECIFICS. SEAS SUBSIDE
BELOW 20 FT MON AM.
ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEMS...ALBEIT WEAKER...WILL IMPACT THE REGION
NEXT WEEK...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY. THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD KEEP SEAS WELL ABOVE 10 FT FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SEAS POSSIBLY PUSHING 20 FT AT TIMES.
JBONK/NEUROCKMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON
COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH
OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST MONDAY
FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON
COAST-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.
WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
PST MONDAY.
STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
OR OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
345 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS
BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES.EXPECT DECREASING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT. THE NEXT STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN...AS
WELL AS PLENTY OF CASCADE SNOW. A MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE THIRD FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH SNOW
LEVELS LIKELY DROPPING INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS MAINTAINING MODERATE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE HAVE A BIT OF KICK WITH
THEM...PRODUCING QUARTER TO EVEN HALF INCH HAIL AS REPORTED NEAR
NEWPORT EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD START TO EASE SOME
AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW SHOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAK AND SHORT LIVED RIDGING BUILDS. QUICK ON ITS
HEELS IS A WARM FRONT OFFSHORE. THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE S WA
CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FEET HAS BEEN GOING WELL...WITH SURPRISE LAKES
SNOTEL SHOWING ABOUT 12" OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. SNOW LEVELS HAVE COME
DOWN WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND THIS IS ALSO
THE CASE IN THE OREGON CASCADES WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 2-5" HAS FALLEN.
SNOW LEVELS CONFIRMED BY OBS TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000
FEET. SNOW ACCUMS THIS MORNING WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE...AND THUS
WILL NOT ADD ANY ADVISORIES BUT EXPECT SNOW AT THE PASSES.
NOW ANY TIME YOU HAVE RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW AND STRONG
UPPER JET WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
RIDE ALONG THESE ZONES AND CAN BE CHALLENGING TO KNOW QUITE WHERE
THEY HEAD ONSHORE. WE WON`T BE SEEING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS TAKING
PLACE LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY WITH A DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
AND THUS ANY SURFACE LOWS WILL BE WEAKER...BUT CAN LOCALLY ENHANCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. BUT WE WILL HAVE SEVERAL
DECENT WAVES PASSING BY ALONG AND TO OUR NORTH. THE LEAD WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAYS...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP WITH THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND SEVERAL
TO FOLLOW THIS WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN TIER.
THEREFORE OUR HIGHEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM INITIALLY IS THE WINDS.
I LIKE THE EVENING SHIFTS EARLIER THOUGHTS ON THIS. 925/950MB FLOW IN
THE COASTAL JET WERE DEPICTED AT 83/73KT RESPECTIVELY. THE FLOW
YESTERDAY WAS ALSO MARKEDLY STABLE IN THE WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME.
TODAY WE ARE AND WILL REMAIN QUITE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE. STABILITY
WILL WEAKEN SOME AS THE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE PASSES THROUGH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND SO THE LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT SOME BLOCKING AND
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT. WE DO SEE SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE STILL EASILY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT THE EXTREME WINDS FOUND ON THE HEADLANDS YESTERDAY
WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT. THAT SAID THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE
MORE PRONE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF MORE SOUTHWESTERLY HIGH WINDS. HIGH
WIND WATCH IS UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING BELOW
HIGH WINDS...THOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE THERE TOO. AS FOR STRONGER WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE GRADIENTS SUN/SUN NIGHT.
NONETHELESS...THE 00Z UW WRFGFS RUN SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 40-50 KT
GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUN EVENING. THE RAP SHOWS THE
GRADIENT GETTING A BIT LESS SOUTHEASTERLY AND TARGETS THE CENTRAL
VALLEY FROM SALEM NORTH TO THE SOUTH METRO AREA OF PORTLAND. THE GFS
HINTS AT THIS TOO BUT IT IS LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IT
ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE INDIVIDUAL SURFACE LOWS TRACK.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SIMILAR VALUES TO THOSE SEEN YESTERDAY AND THERE
WERE ONLY A FEW GUSTS THAT REACHED OVER 45 MPH. COULD GO EITHER WAY
AND IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK TO SEE IF
ANY SMALLER SCALE LOWS FORM THAT WILL HELP TO ORIENT THE GRADIENT.
FOR NOW WILL MENTION 40-45 MPH. THE THEME IS WINDIER CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS.
THE NEXT IMPACT WILL THEN BE FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTER A PERIOD
OF MODEST RAINFALL WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PORTION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
WHEN THE WINDS START TO REALLY PICKUP...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES. THIS IS NOT YOUR CLASSIC
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SITUATION WITH SUPER HIGH PW VALUES. BUT WHAT THIS
SYSTEM IS LACKING FROM IN MOISTURE...IT MAY MAKE UP ENOUGH IN A
STRONGER FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AND ALSO BETTER LAPSE RATES
WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE MODELS IDEA OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA WILL BE FIRMLY ROOTED IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOW LOOKING AT
THE 4KM EMC WRF REFLECTIVITY DEPICTS A VERY INTENSE BAND OF RAINFALL
WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WE FIRST GET IN ON A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN THE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS POINTED
NORTH OF THE AREA INITIALLY IN THE EVENING. IT IS ORIENTED PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND THUS THIS BAND WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING
INITIALLY IT WILL THEN SAG SOUTH AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
NEAR...WHICH MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS STARTING TO
OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING OUR FOCUS TO NOT ONLY POTENTIAL
RIVER FLOODING FOR S WA AND N OR COASTAL RIVERS...BUT THESE RATES ARE
CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF URBAN AND STREET FLOODING. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER..ALL IT WILL TAKE IS A 1-3 INCH EVENT TO CAUSE AT LEAST A
COUPLE RIVERS TO COME CLOSE TO FLOOD IF NOT GET OVER. AND THERE ARE
SEVERAL WAVES THAT WILL BE RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THAT WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ON THE SAME AREAS WHEREAS THIS WAS NOT THE CASE
ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT IN WATCHING AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. WITH THE STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW...SOME OF
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SHIELD THE VALLEY A BIT...BUT WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE PASSING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY/SQUALLY TYPE PRECIPITATION EVEN FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE RIGHT DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
MEANWHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL FINALLY GET A SOLID DUMPING OF SNOWFALL.
HAVE UPGRADED THE S WA CASCADES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR 1-2 FT
OF SNOW. HAVE LEFT THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES IN A WATCH...AS IT IS
NOT CLEAR HOW HEAVY THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. THAT
BEING SAID MONDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF PRETTY HEAVY SNOW
WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1" PER HOUR...BUT WILL NEED TO SEE HOW LONG
THIS LAST AS THE PRECIP AXIS EASES AS YOU HEAD SOUTH. TOTALS STILL
LOOK TO APPROACH 1 FOOT IN SPOTS...POSSIBLY A BIT MORE.
THE FRONT CLEARS LATER MONDAY FOR A BREAK BUT ANOTHER WET SYSTEM IS
ON ITS HEELS FOR TUESDAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY BY
TUESDAY NIGHT./KMD
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FEW SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN WET AND COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM IS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER AND MORE
SHOWERS...DROPPING SLOW LEVELS TO 800 TO 1000 FT. A BUILDING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AND LIKELY LEADING TO
A PERIOD OF DRYING. 27/KMD
&&
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 06Z TAF PACKAGE. MIX OF VFR
WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS UNDER SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SUN
AM. WILL HAVE ISOLATED TS NEAR THE COAST AT TIMES. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL PUSH INTO REGION AFTER 18Z ON COAST...AND AFTER 20Z INLAND AS
RAIN AND MVFR INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS AREA. WILL SEE GUSTY S
WINDS DEVELOP AFTER 18Z SUN.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR TONIGHT AND SUN AM...WITH
OCCASIONAL BRIEF MVFR UNDER SHOWERS. AS FRONT APPROACHES ON SUN
AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE INCREASING MVFR AND RAIN. ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF SUB GALE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
WIDESPREAD GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOLID SOUTHERLY GALES AGAIN BY
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COASTAL JET WILL DEVELOP
EARLY THIS EVENING PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE INNER WATERS BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET 50+ KT GUSTS AND HAVE DECIDED
TO LIMIT THE STORM WARNING TO THE INNER WATERS WHILE MAINTAINING
THE GALES FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS CURRENTLY 15 TO 18 FT. WITH INCREASED WINDS LATER...SEAS
WILL BUILD. LIKELY CLOSE TO 20 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EASILY
20 TO 25 FT THIS EVENING. MAY GET BRIEF TIMES OF 25 TO 30 FT SEAS
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS RATHER LOW ON THE SPECIFICS. SEAS SUBSIDE
BELOW 20 FT MON AM.
ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEMS...ALBEIT WEAKER...WILL IMPACT THE REGION
NEXT WEEK...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY. THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD KEEP SEAS WELL ABOVE 10 FT FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SEAS POSSIBLY PUSHING 20 FT AT TIMES.
JBONK/NEUROCKMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON
COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH
OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST MONDAY
FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON
COAST-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.
WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
PST MONDAY.
STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
OR OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
1011 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2014
.UPDATE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND JET THAT CAUSED YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT`S
WINDS MOVING EAST AND A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY.
OBSERVATIONS FROM ON AND AROUND LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE
SHOWING DECREASING WINDS HAVE CANCELED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORIES.
WINDS WILL STILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL LAKE WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING. 20
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2014/
UPDATE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO KICK UP IN THE WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE AND
LATEST 3KM HRRR AND 06Z NAM SHOW WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH ON BOTH
LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKES WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH HERE AT
THE WFO. RAISED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING AS LAKE
WATERS WILL BE ROUGH AND CHOPPY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOHMANN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY WILL EXIT THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TODAY. THE STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT
INTO OREGON AND WASHINGTON THIS WEEK WITH SOME BREEZY AFTERNOONS,
BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF I-80 FOR
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM...
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WHERE THE WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT, SO
WILL EXPIRE THEM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA WITH
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH WITH ONLY LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2
INCHES.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM EXPECT SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING TO LAST INTO
TUESDAY, BUT THE LOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN MODERATE. WHILE LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WINDS INCREASE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH 700 MB WINDS OF 25-40 KTS. THEREFORE, EXPECT AFTERNOONS TO BE
BREEZY WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD MAINLY BE OF
THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY, WITH MORE CLOUD COVER TUESDAY AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS MAY DRAG
A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH TO SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT MILD DAYS DUE TO DECENT MIXING FROM
THE WINDS. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT IT TO BE SEASONABLY COLD AS ONLY THIN
HIGH CLOUDS ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL MODERATE SOME DUE TO THICKER CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. WALLMANN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL
BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD BUT SHOULD END BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT EXITS AND UPPER FORCING DIMINISHES. AFTER
WEDNESDAY, A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AS RIDGE
BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
TRACK ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER THU-THU NIGHT. THEREFORE DRAMATICALLY CUT BACK ON
THE POPS, LEAVING ONLY A LOW END CHANCE FAR NORTHERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SOME
MID-HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME.
AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TODAY AS TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST.
RIDGE WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY THIS MORNING AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME TURBULENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA...MAINLY BEFORE
20Z. OTHERWISE VFR WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THERE
IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG AROUND KTRK LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOHMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NEW YORK NY
413 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL USHER IN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE REGION
TUESDAY...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY. A
BRIEF RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER BRIEF RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY APPROACHING
FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR PLACED APPROACHING SHRTWV ENERGY ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND
PA THIS AFTN. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES THAT THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LIFT IS HOLDING TOGETHER....WITH SFC OBS INDICATING LIGHT
SNOWFALL RATES WITH VSBY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES. AS A RESULT HAVE
GONE CLOSE TO THE RUC AND FCST ISOLD-SCT SHSN THIS EVE. WHERE ANY
HEAVIER SHSN OCCUR...A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE. HRRR/NAM/RUN SUGGEST
THIS SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE LWR HUDSON VALLEY INTO CT AND LI.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NW WINDS MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY AFTER THE SHRTWV...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COASTS...BUT ACROSS MOST AREAS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN BEFORE
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SNOWCOVER. SKIES WILL CLEAR PER STLT
OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV
AND MET WITH A MANUAL DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.
BRIGHT AND SUNNY ON MON WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING CLR
SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE W BY
SUNSET. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE USED FOR TEMPS.
PACIFIC SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THEN APPROACHES MON
NGT. THE TREND WITH THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS WILL BE HIGHER AFTER THE SYSTEM EJECTS
ONTO THE PLAINS. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN SLIGHTLY...BUT SNOW
SHOULD REACH AREAS ALONG AND W OF THE HUDSON BY SUNRISE...WITH UP
TO AN INCH POSSIBLE BY 8AM TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SINUSOIDAL PATTERN ALOFT WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE REMAINS EVIDENT
AMONGST THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE MODELS OVERALL
CONTINUE TO CONVEY AN INCREASING AMPLITUDE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH A DEVELOPING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN U.S.
AND DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL U.S. A GRADUAL MODERATION OF
THE AIRMASS WILL THUS TAKE PLACE WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE PREVALENT MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.
IN THE LOCAL REGION...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL JET
LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL ENHANCE LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH AXIS
AND LEFT QUAD OF THE JET PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THE SURFACE...THE PARENT LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING RIGHT NEAR THE REGION. THE TRENDS HAVE
OSCILLATED NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH REGARDS TO
POSITION OF THE LOW NEAR THE REGION. HOWEVER...A TREND WITH COLDER
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND THEREBY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS
NOTED AND THIS WILL THEREFORE PROVIDE A GREATER MAGNITUDE OF
STEERING FLOW...ESSENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR THIS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN NATURE WITH A SMALL TIME SCALE EVENT. MODELS AGREE WITH A GENERAL
0.2 TO 0.3 INCH...TRENDED DOWN FROM 12Z RUNS ON SATURDAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS WOULD EQUATE TO 10 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH A
LOW CHANCE OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WHICH SOME SREF MEMBERS STILL SHOW.
A STRONGER PARENT LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
GREATER RIDGING TREND LATE WEEK WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING. THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY.
HEIGHTS WILL SLIGHTLY LOWER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY FOLLOWING BEHIND IT AND A RESUME OF RISING
HEIGHTS BUT AT A SLOW RATE. THIS HIGH WILL BE QUITE TRANSIENT AND
WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATER NEXT
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THIS IS ONLY
SHOWN BY THE ECMWF WITH GFS DISPLAYING A VASTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO
WITH WEAKER LOW PRESSURE AND MORE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIP EVENTS WEDNESDAY AND LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THE MILDER AIRMASS DEVELOPING IN THE REGION. AMOUNTS GENERALLY
ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. DETAILS ON THIS ARE UNCERTAIN WITH
MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER...FROM 23-00Z THROUGH
03-04Z...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED.
CEILINGS/VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW IS A POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...SKIES CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 270-290 TRUE AROUND 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH 00Z.
A GUST OR TWO TO 20 KT IS POSSIBLE. THEN GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT
THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...RIGHT AROUND 300-320 TRUE. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN
MORE TOWARD THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...320-340 TRUE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE IN
LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH.
.TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW IN THE
MORNING...WITH A RETURN TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG.
.WED AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS WED AFTERNOON.
.FRI...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE FALLEN JUST BLW SCA LVLS ON THE WATERS...BUT THESE
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT AFT THE PASSAGE OF A QUICK
MOVING DISTURBANCE. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR ALL WATERS
THRU 6AM. THE WINDS SHOULD LINGER A BIT LONGER OFF MONTAUK...SO
THE ADVY GOES TIL 11AM THERE. HIPRES KEEPS CONDITIONS BLW SCA LVLS
MON AFTN THRU MON NGT.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND TRACKING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS...LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN STAY UP THROUGH THE DAY AND
NIGHT...STILL IN THE SCA RANGE. SUB SCA CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER...SCA POTENTIAL RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 0.2 TO 0.4 INCH LIQUID WITH SYSTEM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP EXPECTED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.
DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JM
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
400 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL USHER IN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE REGION
TUESDAY...EXITING EAST OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY. A
BRIEF RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER BRIEF RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY APPROACHING
FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR PLACED APPROACHING SHRTWV ENERGY ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND
PA THIS AFTN. THE RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES THAT THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LIFT IS HOLDING TOGETHER....WITH SFC OBS INDICATING LIGHT
SNOWFALL RATES WITH VSBY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES. AS A RESULT HAVE
GONE CLOSE TO THE RUC AND FCST ISOLD-SCT SHSN THIS EVE. WHERE ANY
HEAVIER SHSN OCCUR...A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE. HRRR/NAM/RUN SUGGEST
THIS SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE LWR HUDSON VALLEY INTO CT AND LI.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NW WINDS MAY PICK UP BRIEFLY AFTER THE SHRTWV...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COASTS...BUT ACROSS MOST AREAS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN BEFORE
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SNOWCOVER. SKIES WILL CLEAR PER STLT
OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV
AND MET WITH A MANUAL DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.
BRIGHT AND SUNNY ON MON WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING CLR
SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE W BY
SUNSET. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE USED FOR TEMPS.
PACIFIC SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THEN APPROACHES MON
NGT. THE TREND WITH THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS WILL BE HIGHER AFTER THE SYSTEM EJECTS
ONTO THE PLAINS. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF PCPN SLIGHTLY...BUT SNOW
SHOULD REACH AREAS ALONG AND W OF THE HUDSON BY SUNRISE...WITH UP
TO AN INCH POSSIBLE BY 8AM TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SINUSOIDAL PATTERN ALOFT WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE REMAINS EVIDENT
AMONGST THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE MODELS OVERALL
CONTINUE TO CONVEY AN INCREASING AMPLITUDE PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH A DEVELOPING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN U.S.
AND DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL U.S. A GRADUAL MODERATION OF
THE AIRMASS WILL THUS TAKE PLACE WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE PREVALENT MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.
IN THE LOCAL REGION...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL JET
LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL ENHANCE LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH AXIS
AND LEFT QUAD OF THE JET PUSH EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THE SURFACE...THE PARENT LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING RIGHT NEAR THE REGION. THE TRENDS HAVE
OSCILLATED NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH REGARDS TO
POSITION OF THE LOW NEAR THE REGION. HOWEVER...A TREND WITH COLDER
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND THEREBY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS
NOTED AND THIS WILL THEREFORE PROVIDE A GREATER MAGNITUDE OF
STEERING FLOW...ESSENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR THIS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN NATURE WITH A SMALL TIME SCALE EVENT. MODELS AGREE WITH A GENERAL
0.2 TO 0.3 INCH...TRENDED DOWN FROM 12Z RUNS ON SATURDAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS WOULD EQUATE TO 10 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH A
LOW CHANCE OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WHICH SOME SREF MEMBERS STILL SHOW.
A STRONGER PARENT LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANAD TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A GREATER RIDGING
TREND LATE WEEK WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT APPROACHING. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY.
HEIGHTS WILL SLIGHTLY LOWER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY FOLLOWING BEHIND IT AND A RESUME OF RISING
HEIGHTS BUT AT A SLOW RATE. THIS HIGH WILL BE QUITE TRANSIENT AND
WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATER NEXT
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THIS IS ONLY
SHOWN BY THE ECMWF WITH GFS DISPLAYING A VASTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO
WITH WEAKER LOW PRESSURE AND MORE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIP EVENTS WEDNESDAY AND LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THE MILDER AIRMASS DEVELOPING IN THE REGION. AMOUNTS GENERALLY
ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. DETAILS ON THIS ARE UNCERTAIN WITH
MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER...FROM 23-00Z THROUGH
03-04Z...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED.
CEILINGS/VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW IS A POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE...SKIES CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 270-290 TRUE AROUND 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH 00Z.
A GUST OR TWO TO 20 KT IS POSSIBLE. THEN GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT
THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...RIGHT AROUND 300-320 TRUE. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN
MORE TOWARD THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...320-340 TRUE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE IN
LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACH.
.TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW IN THE
MORNING...WITH A RETURN TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG.
.WED AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS WED AFTERNOON.
.FRI...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE FALLEN JUST BLW SCA LVLS ON THE WATERS...BUT THESE
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT AFT THE PASSAGE OF A QUICK
MOVING DISTURBANCE. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR ALL WATERS
THRU 6AM. THE WINDS SHOULD LINGER A BIT LONGER OFF MONTAUK...SO
THE ADVY GOES TIL 11AM THERE. HIPRES KEEPS CONDITIONS BLW SCA LVLS
MON AFTN THRU MON NGT.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND TRACKING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY RIGHT
BEHIND IT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY RETURN BY WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO SCA GUSTS
LATE IN THE WEEK. SCA SEAS ARE FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THESE ARE FROM WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. THERE
IS A CHANCE SEAS MAY BE 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN FORECAST ON THE OCEAN FOR
TUESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOW TRENDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 0.2 TO 0.4 INCH LIQUID WITH SYSTEM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP EXPECTED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.
DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JM
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
418 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE WEST AND CNTRL CONUS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHRTWVS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. LINGERING CONFLUENT FLOW
OVER NRN ONTARIO INTO THE NRN LAKES AND ASSOCIATED SFC ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION. VIS LOOP
SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUD SPREADING QUICKLY THROUGH MN WITH THE WAA
REGIME AHEAD OF LOW PRES OVER THE WRN PLAINS.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...PER MDLS RH FCST AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY
WITH GRADUALLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. OVER THE
ERN CWA...WITH THE LONGER PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS COULD DROP
TO AROUND -10F OR EVENING COLDER. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE ZERO TO
-5F RANGE ARE EXPECTED CENTRAL AND 0 TO 5F WEST.
MONDAY...THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THE
STRONGER 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE THE SRN SHRTWV
WILL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SRN WI INTO SRN LOWER MI.
HOWEVER...THE WEAKER QG FORCING TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH 285K-290K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH 2G/KG AVAILABLE SHOULD ALSO
SUPPORT MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE STRONGER
DYNAMICS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...THE FCST LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF CONSENSUS QPF VALUES...MAINLY IN THE 0.25 TO 0.35 INCH
RANGE...PER NAM AND REGIONAL GEM. UPWARD MOTION THE DGZ SUPPORTS SLR
VALUES IN THE 15/1 TO 20/1 RANGE GIVING OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE. ALTHOUGH SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY AT TIMES...BLSN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED TO COVER THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE TO REACH OR EXCEED THE 6 INCH WARNING
THRESHOLD WOULD BE OVER THE SRN CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO POST A WINTER STORM WARNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER WRN UPPER MI AT 00Z TUE AND WILL
PUSH E OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TUE. MOST OF THE SNOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM COMES PRIOR TO 00Z TUE...SO WILL LEAVE MOST OF THE DISCUSSION
OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER. 12Z/16 GFS CONTINUES TO
APPEAR TOO FAST WITH THE SYSTEM...SO STUCK WITH NON-GFS SOLUTIONS
FOR POPS/QPF. MOST OF THE ADDITIONAL SNOW MON NIGHT FALLS PRIOR TO
06Z...WITH NO SNOW EXPECTED IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME PERIOD OVER FAR WRN
UPPER MI TO 2 INCHES OVER THE ERN CWA.
DEEP MOISTURE EXITS WITH THE SHORTWAVE LATE MON NIGHT WHILE MID/LOW
LEVEL TEMPS INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL PORTION OF A WARM FRONT MOVES
IN FROM THE W. THIS TRAPS MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OVER THE ERN
CWA WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION...WHICH LEAVES THE DGZ DRY AND
SUB-INVERSION TEMPS NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. THINK
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER ERN UPPER MI FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS THE SFC PORTION OF
THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE CENTRAL AND WRN CWA WILL NOT SEE AS
MUCH MOISTURE UNDER THE INVERSION...SO NOT AS WORRIED THERE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TOPOGRAPHY FOR UPSLOPE WITH THE
SW WINDS OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...WILL NOT ADD FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THE REST OF TUE IS TRICKY...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
APPROACHING FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. A THERMAL RIDGE
PASSES OVERHEAD AROUND MID DAY TUE WITH 850MB TEMPS AOA 0C IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WARMER TEMPS. NEGATIVES FOR THE
WARMER TEMPS ARE EASIER TO COME UP WITH...INCLUDING THE FACT THAT IT
HAS BEEN QUITE COLD LATELY SO THE SNOW PACK IS VERY COLD. WE WILL
HAVE FRESH SNOW FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENING THAT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS
COLD AND SFC ALBEDO LOWER. ANY WARMING POTENTIAL FROM THE NORMAL
WARMER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE REDUCED OR ELIMINATED DUE
TO ICE COVER. UNTIL THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THERE SHOULD BE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL LIMIT WARMING. A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE CWA LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE EVENING...BRINGING
COLDER AIR AND MORE CLOUDS. IN FACT...BY 00Z WED...NWRN UPPER MI
SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -4C. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE FOR
THE WARMER TEMPS IS THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NRN CWA FROM EARLY TUE AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUE EVENING...WHICH WILL AT LEAST KEEP CLOUD COVER UP OVER
NRN UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR AND MAY EVEN BRING SOME MINOR LIGHT
SNOW /SINCE AREAS OF THE LOW AND MID LEVELS THAT WILL BE ABOVE 0C
WILL BE DRY WITH SUB-ZERO WET BULB TEMPS/. CONSIDERING ALL
THIS...TEMPS WILL BE VERY CONDITIONAL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS OVER SRN UPPER MI NEAR THE WI BORDER.
LEFT TEMPS SIMILAR ALONG THE WI BORDER...BUT LOWERED A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OVER NRN AREAS.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED WED AND TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPS AOB -5C AT 18Z.
ANOTHER THERMAL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR
FOR THE REST OF THU ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER. AS FAR AS
PRECIP IS CONCERNED...THINGS ARE A LOT MORE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DO
NOT HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF
THE SHORTWAVE. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES APPEAR THE BULK OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL GO N OF THE CWA...WITH POSSIBLY ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL OVER UPPER MI. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN THE PRECIP
FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THEN FOR FRI THROUGH NEXT SUN...IT APPEARS THAT UPPER TROUGHING WILL
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CONUS...BRINGING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WHILE THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE COLDER
TEMPS...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW. USED GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
MVFR CIGS AT SAW AND IWD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE
WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION AND GREATER LOW LEVEL MIXING. SOME WAA LIGHT SNOW COULD REACH
INTO KIWD LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES IN
THE MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY DROPPING TO IFR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
OVERALL...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING OVER EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR...BUT GALES ARE
NOT EXPECTED AS MAIN SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER CNTRL AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY TREND STRONGER LATE THIS WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ006-007-014-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 10 PM EST /9
PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ001-003>005-010>013-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6
PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
337 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE EXITING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FCST AREA. LINGERING MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A NNE FLOW OF -18C 8H TEMPS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR IS STILL SUPPORTING SOME LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW/FLURRIES OVER
THE MAINLY THE SE CWA AND ALSO SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO
NCNTRL PORTIONS OF UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...MID-LVL RDGG AND Q-VECT DIV AND
ASSOC MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE AS NOTED ON FCST SNDGS SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID
DIMINISHMENT OF ANY REMAINING LES OVER NCNTRL COUNTIES BY LATE
MORNING. UNTIL THEN...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR LIGHT
LES/FLURRIES. CONTINUED NNE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MAY ALLOW
SOME LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR NCNTRL COUNTIES
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE THRU AFTERNOON
HRS. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO BETTER PERFORMING REGIONAL GEM GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH HIGHS AROUND 10F NORTH TO NEAR 20F SW ALONG THE WI
BORDER.
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT. GFS IS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN REST OF MODELS WITH ONSET
OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING OF COLUMN FOR PCPN. GFS
APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT SO WILL SIDE MORE WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND OF ECMWF/REGIONAL GEM/NAM AND UKMET AND CARRY
POPS FOR MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH LIKELY POPS OF 60 PCT
NEAR KIWD BY 12Z MON. CONSENSUS QPF OF AROUND .07 INCH BETWEEN
06-12Z ALONG WITH EXPECTED SLR NEAR 17/1 SHOULD YIELD AROUND ONE
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT FOR KIWD AREA. MIN TEMPS IN
SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE EVENING OVER
THE WRN CWA AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR RISE LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASED
MIXING FROM TIGHTENING SRLY GRAD AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND
INCREASING WAA CLOUDS. LONGER PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER EAST HALF WHERE
BLO ZERO TEMPS AREA EXPECTED. A FEW OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD RAWS
SITES OVER ERN CWA COULD SEE MIN TEMPS OF -10F OR COLDER. AGAIN
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO BETTER PERFORMING CANADIAN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER WRN UPPER MI AT 00Z TUE AND WILL
PUSH E OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TUE. MOST OF THE SNOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM COMES PRIOR TO 00Z TUE...SO WILL LEAVE MOST OF THE DISCUSSION
OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER. 12Z/16 GFS CONTINUES TO
APPEAR TOO FAST WITH THE SYSTEM...SO STUCK WITH NON-GFS SOLUTIONS
FOR POPS/QPF. MOST OF THE ADDITIONAL SNOW MON NIGHT FALLS PRIOR TO
06Z...WITH NO SNOW EXPECTED IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME PERIOD OVER FAR WRN
UPPER MI TO 2 INCHES OVER THE ERN CWA.
DEEP MOISTURE EXITS WITH THE SHORTWAVE LATE MON NIGHT WHILE MID/LOW
LEVEL TEMPS INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL PORTION OF A WARM FRONT MOVES
IN FROM THE W. THIS TRAPS MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OVER THE ERN
CWA WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION...WHICH LEAVES THE DGZ DRY AND
SUB-INVERSION TEMPS NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. THINK
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER ERN UPPER MI FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS THE SFC PORTION OF
THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE CENTRAL AND WRN CWA WILL NOT SEE AS
MUCH MOISTURE UNDER THE INVERSION...SO NOT AS WORRIED THERE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TOPOGRAPHY FOR UPSLOPE WITH THE
SW WINDS OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...WILL NOT ADD FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THE REST OF TUE IS TRICKY...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
APPROACHING FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. A THERMAL RIDGE
PASSES OVERHEAD AROUND MID DAY TUE WITH 850MB TEMPS AOA 0C IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WARMER TEMPS. NEGATIVES FOR THE
WARMER TEMPS ARE EASIER TO COME UP WITH...INCLUDING THE FACT THAT IT
HAS BEEN QUITE COLD LATELY SO THE SNOW PACK IS VERY COLD. WE WILL
HAVE FRESH SNOW FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENING THAT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS
COLD AND SFC ALBEDO LOWER. ANY WARMING POTENTIAL FROM THE NORMAL
WARMER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE REDUCED OR ELIMINATED DUE
TO ICE COVER. UNTIL THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THERE SHOULD BE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL LIMIT WARMING. A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE CWA LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE EVENING...BRINGING
COLDER AIR AND MORE CLOUDS. IN FACT...BY 00Z WED...NWRN UPPER MI
SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -4C. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE FOR
THE WARMER TEMPS IS THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NRN CWA FROM EARLY TUE AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUE EVENING...WHICH WILL AT LEAST KEEP CLOUD COVER UP OVER
NRN UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR AND MAY EVEN BRING SOME MINOR LIGHT
SNOW /SINCE AREAS OF THE LOW AND MID LEVELS THAT WILL BE ABOVE 0C
WILL BE DRY WITH SUB-ZERO WET BULB TEMPS/. CONSIDERING ALL
THIS...TEMPS WILL BE VERY CONDITIONAL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS OVER SRN UPPER MI NEAR THE WI BORDER.
LEFT TEMPS SIMILAR ALONG THE WI BORDER...BUT LOWERED A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OVER NRN AREAS.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED WED AND TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPS AOB -5C AT 18Z.
ANOTHER THERMAL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR
FOR THE REST OF THU ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER. AS FAR AS
PRECIP IS CONCERNED...THINGS ARE A LOT MORE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DO
NOT HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF
THE SHORTWAVE. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES APPEAR THE BULK OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL GO N OF THE CWA...WITH POSSIBLY ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL OVER UPPER MI. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN THE PRECIP
FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THEN FOR FRI THROUGH NEXT SUN...IT APPEARS THAT UPPER TROUGHING WILL
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CONUS...BRINGING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WHILE THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE COLDER
TEMPS...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW. USED GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
MVFR CIGS AT SAW AND IWD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE
WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION AND GREATER LOW LEVEL MIXING. SOME WAA LIGHT SNOW COULD REACH
INTO KIWD LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES IN
THE MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY DROPPING TO IFR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
OVERALL...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING OVER EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR...BUT GALES ARE
NOT EXPECTED AS MAIN SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER CNTRL AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY TREND STRONGER LATE THIS WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. WITH THE LAKE ALMOST COMPLETELY
ICE COVERED...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR MIZ006-007-014-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 10 PM EST /9
PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ001-003>005-010>013-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6
PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
105 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE EXITING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FCST AREA. LINGERING MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A NNE FLOW OF -18C 8H TEMPS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR IS STILL SUPPORTING SOME LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW/FLURRIES OVER
THE MAINLY THE SE CWA AND ALSO SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO
NCNTRL PORTIONS OF UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...MID-LVL RDGG AND Q-VECT DIV AND
ASSOC MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE AS NOTED ON FCST SNDGS SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID
DIMINISHMENT OF ANY REMAINING LES OVER NCNTRL COUNTIES BY LATE
MORNING. UNTIL THEN...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR LIGHT
LES/FLURRIES. CONTINUED NNE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MAY ALLOW
SOME LAKE CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR NCNTRL COUNTIES
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE THRU AFTERNOON
HRS. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO BETTER PERFORMING REGIONAL GEM GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH HIGHS AROUND 10F NORTH TO NEAR 20F SW ALONG THE WI
BORDER.
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT. GFS IS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN REST OF MODELS WITH ONSET
OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING OF COLUMN FOR PCPN. GFS
APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT SO WILL SIDE MORE WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND OF ECMWF/REGIONAL GEM/NAM AND UKMET AND CARRY
POPS FOR MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH LIKELY POPS OF 60 PCT
NEAR KIWD BY 12Z MON. CONSENSUS QPF OF AROUND .07 INCH BETWEEN
06-12Z ALONG WITH EXPECTED SLR NEAR 17/1 SHOULD YIELD AROUND ONE
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT FOR KIWD AREA. MIN TEMPS IN
SINGLE DIGITS ABV ZERO WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE EVENING OVER
THE WRN CWA AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR RISE LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASED
MIXING FROM TIGHTENING SRLY GRAD AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND
INCREASING WAA CLOUDS. LONGER PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER EAST HALF WHERE
BLO ZERO TEMPS AREA EXPECTED. A FEW OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD RAWS
SITES OVER ERN CWA COULD SEE MIN TEMPS OF -10F OR COLDER. AGAIN
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO BETTER PERFORMING CANADIAN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THIS WEEK AS TROUGHING THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE OVER GREAT LAKES FOR QUITE SOME TIME TAKES A BREAK.
TWO LARGER SCALE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND
AGAIN WEDNESDY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS LOOK TO COME THROUGH IN SPLIT FASHION...RESULTING IN THE
MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY IN RUN TO RUN PREDICTABILITY. AT THIS POINT
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD SNOW IS ON MONDAY. WETTER SYSTEM
FOR LATE THE WEEK NOT AS CLEAR CUT DUE TO THE SPLIT NATURE OF
SHORTWAVES AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FCST TO IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. SEEMS THAT THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD HOLDS
BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPS REACHING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE EARLY DECEMBER AT WFO MARQUETTE.
MONDAY...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIDES
EAST ACROSS CNTRL CONUS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...BUT SPLITS INTO TWO
PIECES OF ENERGY WHILE DOING SO. SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE FCST TO MISS UPR
MICHIGAN INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES. MODELS VARY WITH WHICH ONE HAS THE
MOST PUNCH. IF SOUTHERN WAVE IS STRONGER AS SHOWN BY ECMWF AND GEM
THEN STRONGEST MOISTURE INFLOW WOULD SETUP TO THE SOUTH OF UPR
MICHIGAN. IF NORTHERN WAVE IS STRONGER AS SHOWN BY GFS AND NAM THERE
IS A BETTER SHOT OF MORE LOW-LEVEL TEMP/MOISURE ADVECTION MAKING IT
INTO UPR MICHIGAN. ALL AREAS WILL SEE LGT SNOW DUE TO BROAD H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND PVA FM BOTH SHORTWAVES. THERE IS ALSO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH AT LEAST
2G/KG AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM WITH EITHER SCENARIO...MORE THOUGH IF
NORTHERN WAVE IS STRONGER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOT OF MID
LEVEL LIFT WITH PORTION OF UVM/MOISTURE IN THE DGZ. THIS IS LOOKING
LIKE A SOLID HIGHER-END ADVY FOR MUCH OF WEST AND CNTRL CWA. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS PROBABLY END UP OVER WESTERN CWA AND ALONG WI
BORDER...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING. MORE
SNOW WITH THIS MONDAY SYSTEM THOUGH. THOUGHT ABOUT A WATCH AS
MAJORITY OF SREF MEMBERS FOR KIMT ARE IN THE 5-7 INCH RANGE...BUT
THIS OUTPUT IS BIASED BY STRONGER NORTH/WETTER NAM IDEA AS MANY
HIGHER RES MEMBERS IN SREF ARE BASED OFF THE NAM CAMP. NO WATCH FOR
NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO/EHWO. IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE HIGHER AS IT FALLS ON A WEEKDAY.
GFS APPEARS TOO QUICK IN DEPARTING THE SYSTEM MONDAY EVENING...SO
HELD WITH SLOWER IDEA FROM ECMWF/GEM-NH FOR POPS. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SNOW WILL BE OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA THOUGH. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
FEW INCHES IN THE EVENING FOR THE EASTERN AND FAR SCNTRL CWA. EASY
TO SEE IF THE SYSTEM DOES TREND SLOWER...MAY SEE ISOLD SNOW AMOUNTS
OVER 6"/12HR...EXCEEDING OUR WARNING CRITERIA. NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT
THOUGH IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS TO GIVE
50 PCT CONFIDENCE OF THAT OCCURRING...SO THIS WAS ANOTHER REASON TO
NOT ISSUE A WATCH.
STARTING TO LOOK LIKE TUESDAY MAY END UP THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
COULD THIS BE THE DAY WE END OUR RECORD RUN OF SUB FREEZING DAYS? WE
WILL SEE. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS IN WESTERLY FLOW AND
SFC LOW SHOULD FORM UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS PLACES UPR
MICHIGAN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. MODELS HINTING THAT
THERE MAY BE LGT QPF OVER NORTHERN TIER ALONG BRIEFLY RETREATING H85
FRONT. GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THIS. WELL THEY ARE SHOWING IT FOR AT
LEAST ONE RUN ANYWAY. PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN OVER THE NORTH.
WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN...TEMPS COULD
EASILY PUSH PAST THAT ELUSIVE FREEZING MARK AS 925-900MB TEMPS SURGE
UP TO AROUND 0C IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT SPREAD WITH SOME MOS GUIDANCE PUSHING MAX
TEMPS INTO LOWER 40S OVER WESTERN CWA. IF SKIES COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT
WOULD NOT RULE THAT OUT AT ALL. FOR NOW...PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE
GIVEN OUR PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER
CLOUDS. EVEN SO RAISED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S...COLDEST
EAST AND WARMEST FAR WEST.
APPEARS QUIET BUT A BIT COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY AS WEAK TROUGH CROSSES
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WITH READINGS IN THE 30S
AGAIN...THIS TIME COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE
ICE COVER. AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE SEEMS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS WE
ARE AHEAD OF PRIMARY TROUGH THAT MOVES IN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SAME ISSUE OF SPLIT SHORTWAVES THAT AFFECTS THE MONDAY FORECAST POPS
UP AGAIN FOR THE THURSDAY FORECAST. MODELS ARE JUMPING AROUND IN HOW
MUCH PHASING CAN OCCUR AND/OR WHICH WAVE IS THE DOMINANT ONE. LAST
COUPLE RUNS OF ECMWF AND GFS SEEMED TO BE TRENDING DRIER...BUT 00Z
RUN IS BACK TO WETTER IDEA. AT THIS POINT...HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT
CONSENSUS OF MODELS OFFERED UP LOOK FINE. WAVE IS STILL NORTH OF THE
ALLUTIAN ISLANDS SO WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE MODELS GET LOCKED IN.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT REALLY ANY OF THE POSSIBILITIES SHOWN IN TERMS OF
EXTENT OF PRECIP AND THERMAL FIELDS SO FAR FM THE MODELS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT...USED BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH YIELDED LIMITED CHANCES OF RAIN AND MAINLY A SNOW EVENT FOR
MUCH OF CWA...EVEN AS SFC TEMPS ON THURSDAY RISE AGAIN INTO THE 30S.
BASED ON 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES OVER LAST FEW MODEL
RUNS IT SEEMS THAT LESS OF A RAIN IDEA IS SHOWING UP...BUT AGAIN
THIS COULD CHANGE ONCE RAOBS BETTER SAMPLE THIS DISTURBANCE EARLY
THIS WEEK.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SW-NE MOVING SHORTWAVES/SFC WAVES IMPACTING GREAT
LAKES ON FRONT EDGE OF DEVELOPING LARGER SCALE TROUGH. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK GOOD GIVEN THIS PATTERN WITH
PTYPE BACK TO MOSTLY SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
MVFR CIGS AT SAW AND IWD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE
WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION AND GREATER LOW LEVEL MIXING. SOME WAA LIGHT SNOW COULD REACH
INTO KIWD LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES IN
THE MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY DROPPING TO IFR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
OVERALL...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING OVER EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR...BUT GALES ARE
NOT EXPECTED AS MAIN SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER CNTRL AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY TREND STRONGER LATE THIS WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. WITH THE LAKE ALMOST COMPLETELY
ICE COVERED...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
102 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING LEADING TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A COUPLE TO PERHAPS A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MAINLY DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LIKELY FOLLOWED BY SOME RAIN OR SNOW ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
HYBRID LAKE/DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED STCU AND FLURRIES CONTINUE
ACROSS NE AND NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS HOUR...EVEN
FLAT OUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN SOME SPOTS WITH REDUCED VSBYS. HAVE
HAD TO STRETCH OUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT. MORE NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING...WITH LITTLE OR ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1100 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
SHORT WAVE AXIS NOW PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING/FILLING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO. LAST BIT
OF SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN WHILE
COLDER/VERY DRY AIRMASS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SPREADING DOWN INTO
NRN MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH/WEST. QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE CWA BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE TO START THE DAY. HOWEVER...NNE
FLOW OFF LAKE HURON (JUST ENOUGH OPEN WATER) HAS/IS BRINGING A
QUICK FLARE UP OF HYBRID LAKE/HEATING INDUCED STCU OVER NE LOWER
MICHIGAN AND SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PER RADAR AND SFC
OBS. HAVE TWEAKED WEATHER FORECAST TO ADD SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
ADJUST SKY FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. INCOMING DRY AIRMASS WILL
ULTIMATELY WIN OVER...BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
FORECAST GOING TO PLAN. DEEPER MOISTURE PULLED OUT OF NW
LOWER/EASTERN UPPER/..AND WILL OVER NE LOWER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THIS WILL END THE BETTER SNOWS...WITH EVEN LIGHTER SNOWS
AND FLURRIES CONTINUING FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD ALONG WITH
CLOUDY SKIES. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
...SUNSHINE FOR MANY BEHIND DEPARTING LIGHT SNOW...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
CURRENT WEATHER/SYNOPTIC PATTERN:
FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING IS NOW WORKING
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. RUC ANALYSIS SEEMINGLY TOO STRONG WITH
OVERALL DEEP LAYER FORCING WHICH IS NOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...BASED ON
WEAKNESS OF OVERALL RADAR RETURNS. GRANTED...THE ACTIVITY HAS PICKED
UP JUST A LITTLE BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS GTV
BAY...WHERE THE BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK
SFC LOW (CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN) RESIDE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
VERY WEAK IN LAX PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS...LIGHT/VERY LIGHT
SNOWS. BACK EDGE OF THE ENHANCED DEEPER MOISTURE PER LATEST
SATELLITE DATA...ALREADY OUT OF EASTERN UPPER WITH LAST VESTIGES OF
3-5SM SNOWS NOW ENDING IN WESTERN CHIP/MAC COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES. UPSTREAM...IN A SEEMINGLY UNFATHOMABLE CHANGE OF
WEATHER PATTERN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. YES. YES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...AND WARMTH...WAS IMPRESSIVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND
WESTERN DAKOTAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE RETURN SRLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN MN...WAS RESULTING IN
OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. CONVERSELY...ON THE LIGHT WIND
FORWARD FLANK/LIGHT WIND SIDE..WERE TEMPERATURES IN THE 0 TO -10F
BELOW ZERO RANGE....AND AREAS OF STRATUS.
PATTERN EVOLUTION/WEATHER EXPECTATIONS: UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE/WAA/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND
EXITS THE REGION WITH DISSOLVING SFC LOW/ABSORPTION INTO DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. LIGHT/VERY LIGHT SNOWS WILL BE ENDING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE MORNING...OUT OF THE CWA AND INTO SAG BAY
AROUND ROUGHLY 16Z. IT IT`S WAKE...AGAIN...HINTS OF TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INVERSION WITH
LOADS OF DRY AIR ALOFT. GOTTA BELIEVE THAT WHATEVER SHALLOW CU CAN
FIRE OFF WITH SUNUP...WILL QUICKLY ERODE...IF IT FORMS AT ALL. THIS
WILL LEAVE NRN MICHIGAN IN A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AGAIN FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE AFTERNOON (LEAST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN THE SE CWA).
THESE CLEAR/CLEARING SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE EVENING
WITH DEEP/DRY ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM THE SFC THROUGH 650MB/700MB. OF
COURSE CANNOT RULE OUT ANY PATCHY STRATUS...BUT IT LOOKS MORE CLEAR
THAN ANYTHING. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES IN WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW DROP RATHER EFFICIENTLY THROUGH THE EVENING...GETTING A GOOD
HEAD START. NEGATIVELY TILTING...MUCH TALKED ABOUT NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL BE RACING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG WARM FRONT WITH IMPRESSIVE 285-290K ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/NET ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING
AND DEVELOPING N-S ORIENTED SWATH OF SNOW MIXED WITH SOME SLEET.
CLOUDS ALOFT THICKEN OVERNIGHT...AND SLOW/STOP THE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. CAN SEE SOME -5 TO -15F READING FOR LOWS ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE CLEAR SKIES LAST LONGER...BUT
MAYBE JUST A TAD WARMER THAN THAT CONSIDERING THE CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
CHALLENGING FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH IS NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WHEN THE
PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW PROCESS OF WARMING UP USUALLY COMMENCES. THE
FIRST SYSTEM OF INTEREST MONDAY...IS LOOKING WAY WEAKER...NOW AN
OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE. MILDER TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND SYSTEM ON THURSDAY IS
TRENDING A BIT COOLER/LESS AMPLIFIED INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OVER
PRECIPITATION TYPE. COLDER AIR THEN LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HOW MUCH IT WILL WARM UP TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE ON THURSDAY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EXTENDED MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A MUCH
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY
MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT (THOUGH THE OUTLYING ECMWF REMAINS MUCH
DEEPER). THIS SPELLS LOWER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF
TWO TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST (MID TO LATE MORNING) TO EAST (SHORTLY
AFTER NOON) ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST. LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE TO
THE MIDDLE TEENS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A TEMPORARY SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN WITH MILDER AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT FOR THE MOST PART LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER...THOUGH
TROUGHS MOVING BY TO THE NORTH MAY COMPROMISE THE DRY PART OF THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS). HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVIDENCES STILL LOOKS LIKE IT TRACKS BY
TO OUR NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATEST TRENDS ARE HEDGING
TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED/LESS WARM SYSTEM...WITH A POSSIBLE SECONDARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH CUTTING OFF THE INFLOW
OF WARMER AIR. THIS OBVIOUSLY CASTS LOTS OF DOUBT ABOUT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST GENERAL WITH
RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND RAIN LIKELY SOUTH THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY IS
NOW EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH.
A PACIFIC RIDGE THEN BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STRENGTHENS NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING/COLD AIR
RETURNING TO THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FRIDAY
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT INCOMING
DRY/COLDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON GOING CALM THIS EVENING.
MONDAY STARTS OUT WITH SE WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BA
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
254 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A NICE UPPER TROUGH WORKING
OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND ON TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. LOOKING AT THE
RAP H4-H3 PV ANALYSIS...THERE ARE TWO MAIN CORES WITH THIS
TROUGH...ONE UP OVER SE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE OTHER WORKING
ACROSS SRN IDAHO. AT THE SFC...THESE TWO PV FEATURES HAVE LED TO THE
GENERATION OF A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...THE MAIN
ONE BEING A 990 MB LOW MOVING INTO SW MANITOBA WITH A SECONDARY 995
MB LOW ALONG THE ERN WYOMING/MONTANA BORDER. FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...IT WILL BE THESE FEATURES THAT WILL BE THE IMPETUS BEHIND
THE QUICK HITTING SNOW EVENT THAT WILL HAPPEN LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE HIGH...WITH THE TWO
PV FEATURES BEGINNING TO MERGE INTO ONE OVER MN MONDAY MORNING.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS THAT ARE LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHEN/HOW MUCH SNOW WE WILL SEE WITH THIS EVENT. THE FIRST ISSUE
DEALS WITH WHAT WE ARE SEEING NOW...DRY SE LOW LEVEL FLOW EMANATING
FROM AN ARCTIC HIGH OFF TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR /WHICH VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SHOWS IS NEARLY FROZEN OVER/. THE OTHER
ISSUE DEALS WITH THE TWO WAVES OF FORCING/PRECIP EXPECTED TONIGHT.
THOSE SOURCES OF FORCING LOOKING TO COME IN THE FORM OF AN INITIAL
WARM ADVECTIVE PUSH AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE COMING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS...BASED ON HRRR/HOPWRF AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS IS THAT
THE WARM ADVECTIVE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO BLOSSOM UP IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...THEN TRY TO BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL/ERN
MN THIS EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH PRECIP DEVELOPING
IN THE MPX AREA UNTIL AFTER 6Z...AS IT TAKES TIME TO OVERCOME THIS
AFTERNOONS DRY AIR. AS THIS INITIAL PUSH IS MOVING INTO WRN WI
AROUND 9Z...FORCING FROM THE MAIN UPPER WAVE SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP
FILLING IN OUT IN WRN MN. EVENTUALLY...THESE TWO BITS OF FORCING
MELD INTO ONE OVER WRN WI...WHERE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE STILL
INDICATED.
CHANGES MADE WITH THIS FORECAST WERE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIP ARRIVAL
TONIGHT AND SLOW SOME ITS DEPARTURE FOR MONDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH WHAT CURRENT HI-RES MODELS SHOW FOR TIMING. ALSO BUMPED DOWN
SOME QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...MAINLY IN WRN WI. PROBLEM HERE IS THAT
THE RAPID PACE WITH WHICH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANYONE TO GET UP OVER 6 INCHES.
GIVEN HIGH AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE ON QPF AMOUNTS...THIS FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE RAW OUTPUT...WHICH RESULTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM AROUND 1 INCH BY THE SODAK BORDER...WITH 5-6 INCHES OUT
TOWARD EAU CLAIRE AND LADYSMITH...AND 3-5 INCHES FOR THE CITIES.
LEFT WARNING HEADLINE UNCHANGED AS THE TIMING FOR THIS SNOW WILL
COINCIDE WITH MORNING COMMUTES. FOR THE ADVY...ADDED NICOLLET...BLUE
EARTH...AND FARIBAULT COUNTIES SO THAT NOW THE WEST EDGE OF THE ADVY
COINCIDES WITH WHERE THE WRN EDGE OF THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 3 INCHES OR MORE.
FOR MONDAY...WHAT WILL BE INTERESTING ABOUT THIS SNOW IS THAT AS IT
MOVES OUT...WE WILL BE REPLACING IT WITH WARMER...NOT COLDER AIR.
WITH THAT SAID...DID NUDGE HIGHS DOWN INTO THE MID 20S FOR WRN
WI...WHERE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL ENSURE AN OVERCAST DAYLIGHT
PERIOD. STILL HAVE HIGHS UP NEAR 40 SW OF THE MN RIVER...THOUGH THIS
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. DID FAVOR THE HIGHS OUT WEST CLOSER TO THE MOS
GUIDANCE...AS RAW MODEL OUTPUT LOOKS TO BE GIVING TOO MUCH
IMPORTANCE ON THE SNOWPACK...THE EDGE OF WHICH IS LESS THAN 100
MILES AWAY FROM THE SW CWA THANKS TO A SNOW FREE LANDSCAPE ACROSS
NEBRASKA INTO SRN SODAK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
THE LONGER TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A RETURN FROM FAIRLY ZONAL
FLOW TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UNFORTUNATELY... AS IS OFTEN THE CASE... HOW WE GET FROM POINT A
TO POINT B ISN/T ENTIRELY CLEAR... AND THERE ARE WIDELY VARYING
DETAILS AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS. THE INITIAL PART OF THE
LONGER RANGE IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD... WITH MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY... BUT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY AND HAS
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR IN ITS WAKE... SO NOT MUCH OF A COOL DOWN
EXPECTED. HOWEVER... A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR WEST DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME... AND SETUP
A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC RUNS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY SPLIT OUR AREA
WITH THE BEST FORCING... TAKING THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NORTH WHILE THE SOUTHERN WAVE AND DEEP MOISTURE STAY TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER... THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE VARIED QUITE A BIT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS... AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW A FAIR
DEGREE OF SPREAD. SO... AT THIS POINT THE UNFORTUNATE PATH OF
LEAST RESISTANCE IS TO HAVE SHOTGUN POPS FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK... INITIALLY WITH THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
SYSTEM... THEN WITH THE REINFORCING SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP INTO
THE AREA BY SATURDAY. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLEAN
SOME OF THIS UP IF/WHEN SOLUTIONS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT... BUT
WITH THE PATTERN RE-AMPLIFYING SOME DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
REMAINS OF MORNING IFR CIGS QUICKLY BEING DONE IN BY DRY SE WINDS
AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY 19Z AT AXN...WITH CONDS REMAINING VFR
EVERYWHERE UNTIL SNOW SHOWS UP TONIGHT...PER THE NAM/GFS/RAP. AS
FOR THAT SNOW...IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT IT WILL COME
IN TWO BURSTS. FIRST WITH A WARM ADVECTIVE BAND OF SNOW...FOLLOWED
BY A 2 OR 3 HOUR LULL...THEN THE SNOW WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE.
THE HRRR WAS FOLLOWED FOR BRINGING IN THE FIRST WAVE...WITH THE
SECOND LEANING MORE TOWARD A NAM/HI-RES ARW TIMING. IT IS THE
SECOND WAVE THAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS...AND
THE TIMING FOR THIS WAS SLOWED DOWN FROM THE 12Z TAFS. CONFIDENCE
A LITTLE LOWER ON END TIMES FOR THE SNOW/LOWER CIGS...BUT BOTH THE
NAM/GFS SHOW VFR CONDS WORKING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE SNOW.
LASTLY...WINDS WILL PICK UP CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT NOT SEEING MUCH GUST POTENTIAL...JUST STRONG
SUSTAINED WINDS UP AT 15-20 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTS ABOUT 5 KTS
ABOVE THAT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR BLSN ISSUES..MAINLY FOR
AXN/RWF.
KMSP...FOR SNOWFALL TONIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MSP WILL
GET ONE BURST OF SNOW BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z...WITH VIS OCCASIONALLY
DIPPING DOWN TO AS LOW AS 3/4SM. WILL SEE A LULL WITH IMPROVING
VIS BETWEEN 8Z AND 10Z...WITH THE SECOND...MORE MEANINGFUL BURST
COMING DOWN IN THE 11Z TO 13Z WINDOW...WHERE VIS WILL HAVE TO
POTENTIAL TO GET DOWN TO 1/2SM. SNOW LOOKS TO GO FAIRLY LIGHT BY
15Z AND WILL BE ALL BUT DOWN BY 17Z. AS FOR ACCUMS...BURST ONE
LOOKS TO GIVE A QUICK INCH...WITH 2-3 INCHES FOR THE SECOND
ONE...WITH A STORM TOTAL UP AROUND 4 INCHES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND W 10 KT.
WED...VFR. WIND S 5-15 KT.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR IN -SN. WIND W 7-12KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR MNZ042>045-049-050-058-066-067-075-076-083>085-092-093.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1209 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE NOTABLY HAMPERED...AS A BURST
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FALLS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH /NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EJECTING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING/. ISENTROPIC LIFT BLOSSOMS OVER THE
AREA BETWEEN 03Z /WEST/ AND 12Z /EAST/. ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS...AND STILL EXPECT GENERALLY 3-5 INCHES FROM ST CLOUD TO THE
TWIN CITES AND FAIRMONT...WITH 5 TO 7 TO THE EAST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WI. WHERE THE WARNING-WORTHY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /6 INCHES/
ARE NOT MET IN MN...THE CRITICAL TIMING OF THE PRE-RUSH HOUR BURST
SHOULD JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF A WARNING.
IN THE MEANTIME...LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID
MORNING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 20S. LOWS
TONIGHT REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY. INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY AND
CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THERE...WHILE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ARE
MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
AFT THE SNOW STORM ON MONDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS VERY FAST FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW. THIS TYPE OF FAST/ZONAL
FLOW WILL CREATE TIMING PROBLEMS WITH SHRTWV/S AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL PASSAGES. EVEN WITH A FASTER...TIMING OF EACH SHRTWV WILL
CREATE PROBLEMS WITH RETURN FLOW AND THE ADDED AFFECT OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL HOLD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE U.S. AT LEAST THRU MIDWEEK. SFC FEATURES
REMAIN DISORGANIZED WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF THE MAIN SFC LOW
ACROSS CANADA...AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A LIMITING FACTOR FOR OUR REGION TO GET THE ADDED AFFECT OF
INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC LOW. THEREFORE...WILL
KEEP THE CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THRU
MIDWEEK...WITH SOME MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/RAIN LATE
WED/THU BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO INVADE THE NORTHERN U.S.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...THIS MIDWEEK
WARMUP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHG BACK
TOWARD THE PREVIOUS LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST...AND THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. 85H TEMPS BY THE WEEK OF FEB 23RD
FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS BLW ZERO. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BLW NORMAL
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
REMAINS OF MORNING IFR CIGS QUICKLY BEING DONE IN BY DRY SE WINDS
AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY 19Z AT AXN...WITH CONDS REMAINING VFR
EVERYWHERE UNTIL SNOW SHOWS UP TONIGHT...PER THE NAM/GFS/RAP. AS
FOR THAT SNOW...IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT IT WILL COME
IN TWO BURSTS. FIRST WITH A WARM ADVECTIVE BAND OF SNOW...FOLLOWED
BY A 2 OR 3 HOUR LULL...THEN THE SNOW WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE.
THE HRRR WAS FOLLOWED FOR BRINGING IN THE FIRST WAVE...WITH THE
SECOND LEANING MORE TOWARD A NAM/HI-RES ARW TIMING. IT IS THE
SECOND WAVE THAT LOOKS TO HAVE THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS...AND
THE TIMING FOR THIS WAS SLOWED DOWN FROM THE 12Z TAFS. CONFIDENCE
A LITTLE LOWER ON END TIMES FOR THE SNOW/LOWER CIGS...BUT BOTH THE
NAM/GFS SHOW VFR CONDS WORKING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE SNOW.
LASTLY...WINDS WILL PICK UP CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT NOT SEEING MUCH GUST POTENTIAL...JUST STRONG
SUSTAINED WINDS UP AT 15-20 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTS ABOUT 5 KTS
ABOVE THAT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR BLSN ISSUES..MAINLY FOR
AXN/RWF.
KMSP...FOR SNOWFALL TONIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MSP WILL
GET ONE BURST OF SNOW BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z...WITH VIS OCCASIONALLY
DIPPING DOWN TO AS LOW AS 3/4SM. WILL SEE A LULL WITH IMPROVING
VIS BETWEEN 8Z AND 10Z...WITH THE SECOND...MORE MEANINGFUL BURST
COMING DOWN IN THE 11Z TO 13Z WINDOW...WHERE VIS WILL HAVE TO
POTENTIAL TO GET DOWN TO 1/2SM. SNOW LOOKS TO GO FAIRLY LIGHT BY
15Z AND WILL BE ALL BUT DOWN BY 17Z. AS FOR ACCUMS...BURST ONE
LOOKS TO GIVE A QUICK INCH...WITH 2-3 INCHES FOR THE SECOND
ONE...WITH A STORM TOTAL UP AROUND 4 INCHES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND W 10 KT.
WED...VFR. WIND S 5-15 KT.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR IN -SN. WIND W 7-12KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR MNZ042>045-049-050-058-066-067-076-084-085-093.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TURNING COLDER ON NORTH WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN
MOST VALLEY AREAS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL ARRIVE EARLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1239 PM EST SUNDAY...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER
NOVA SCOTIA HAS INDUCED N-NW WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. LATEST RAP LOWERS 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND
-17 TO -18C BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST...WITH LINGERING
FLURRIES ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT. WILL MAINTAIN BROKEN
CLOUD COVER ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE WILL HELP OFFSET LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
SOMEWHAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WITH WELL-
MIXED CONDITIONS IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY.
GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
HELPING TO BRING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GETTING DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. IN THE ADKS...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EAST...DECREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NRN NY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS
AS MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING WAVE MOVES EAST...EXITING ERN VT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. IF THESE COLDER TEMPS IN THE ADKS
COINCIDE WITH WIND SPEEDS THAT TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...WIND
CHILLS MAY FALL TO COLDER THAN -20F...AND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED. AT THE SUMMITS TEMPS WILL BE EVEN COLDER WITH 850MB WIND
OF 20-30KTS LEADING TO EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILLS.
DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
AREA...BUT A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE OUT OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
TO MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL WARM TEMPS MONDAY NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY REACHING THE 20S-L30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EST SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF MODEL HAVING A
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT... WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS THIS FEATURE ALREADY APPROACHING
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER EMF
SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. EMF AND GFS MODELS
SHOWING A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION
WILL SEE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING... SO WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. EMF
AND GFS MODELS BOTH SHOWING A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION BY 18Z FRIDAY. SO PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE LOWER
THAN THE SUPER- BLEND GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY...AS BOTH THE EMF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALREADY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z FRIDAY. GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING...THIS WILL ALSO
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS
MOS EXTENDED FORECAST GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT LOWER MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TILL 00Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AS
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1238 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF IN
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TURNING COLDER ON NORTH WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN
MOST VALLEY AREAS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL ARRIVE EARLY
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EST SUNDAY...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA HAS
INDUCED N-NW WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. LATEST RAP INDICATES 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C AT
14Z...PROGGED TO DROP TO -17 TO -18C BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SKIES
HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS
WEST...WITH LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NERN
VT...INCLUDING AT MORRISVILLE AND NEWPORT. WILL MAINTAIN BROKEN
CLOUD COVER ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE WILL HELP OFFSET LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
SOMEWHAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WITH WELL-
MIXED CONDITIONS IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY.
GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
HELPING TO BRING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GETTING DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. IN THE ADKS...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EAST...DECREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NRN NY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS
AS MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING WAVE MOVES EAST...EXITING ERN VT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. IF THESE COLDER TEMPS IN THE ADKS
COINCIDE WITH WIND SPEEDS THAT TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE...WIND
CHILLS MAY FALL TO COLDER THAN -20F...AND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED. AT THE SUMMITS TEMPS WILL BE EVEN COLDER WITH 850MB WIND
OF 20-30KTS LEADING TO EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILLS.
DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
AREA...BUT A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE OUT OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
TO MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL WARM TEMPS MONDAY NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY REACHING THE 20S-L30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EST SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF MODEL HAVING A
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT... WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS THIS FEATURE ALREADY APPROACHING
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER EMF
SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. EMF AND GFS MODELS
SHOWING A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION
WILL SEE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING... SO WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. EMF
AND GFS MODELS BOTH SHOWING A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION BY 18Z FRIDAY. SO PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE LOWER
THAN THE SUPER- BLEND GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY...AS BOTH THE EMF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALREADY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z FRIDAY. GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING...THIS WILL ALSO
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS
MOS EXTENDED FORECAST GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT LOWER MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TILL 00Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AS
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1256 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY SLOW TO RISE IN PERSISTENT CLOUDY
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. SO HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOUT
3 TO 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE CENTRAL. THIS ALSO EFFECT THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND THE RESULTANT PRECIP TYPE...YIELDING LESS RAIN
AND MORE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER AMOUNTS STILL
APPEAR LIGHT AND SO FAR HAVE SEEN VERY LITTLE PRECIP SHOWING UP
AT THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
DUAL POL RADAR RETURNS SHOW NEARLY UNIFORM HYDROMETEORS WHICH
SUGGEST RETURNS COULD BE SNOW ALOFT WHICH SHOWS UP AT ESTEVAN.
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY SURFACE REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET YET BUT
THE FOUR BEARS BRIDGE NDOT SITE SUGGEST SOME FREEZING ROAD SURFACE
CONDITIONS. THE RAP MODEL IS PRETTY WARM AT H850...WHICH MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST WITH THE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO CURRENT GRIDS SEEM
TO BE PARSED OUT WELL WITH SNOW NORTHWEST AND FREEZING RAIN WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE THIS THINKING UNTIL SURFACE
OBS SHOW SOME GROUND TRUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR IN EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES. A FEW
LOCATIONS REPORTING SOME LIGHT SNOW UNDER THE INITIAL WARM
ADVECTION BAND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SO EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THIS
MORNING. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH FOG REPORTED IN HETTINGER...DICKINSON AND NOW GLEN ULLIN.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOOK IN LINE. LATEST HRRR/RAP INDICATE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDED ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MONTANA. CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. FARTHER WEST LOW
CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER HAVE PERSISTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WERE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH
EXTENDED FROM ALBERTA SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO CENTRAL
WYOMING.
THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND REACH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY EVENING BEFORE
EXITING EAST TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH...THEN BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEN WESTERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT VORTICITY AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. TONIGHT THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHIFT TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
A COMPLICATED TEMPERATURE PROFILE SETS UP AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. LOOKING AT NAM AND GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE COULD SEE A MIX OF
MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NORTH CENTRAL WOULD LIKELY SEE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET - BUT CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SMALL DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER BY EVENING WITH THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A MIX OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING...WITH
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE/PLACEMENT. THE TIMING
OF THE WARM AIR MOVING IN WILL AFFECT THIS GREATLY. DECIDED TO KEEP
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBILITIES. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST AS PRECIPITATION
OCCURS TO DETERMINE A TREND IN PRECIPITATION TYPE/EXTENT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD (MONDAY-TUESDAY) DRY...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BREEZY AT TIMES WITH A
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. CAN NOT RULE OUT A SPOTTY RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH...AS IMPULSES RACE THROUGH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
FOLLOWED BY A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIPITATION (RAIN OR
SNOW) ALONG AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WED DAYTIME...FOLLOWED BY A
SHOT OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE ARE SOME
PRETTY BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH...KEEPING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE STATE. THE
GFS/GLOBAL GEM BOTH DEPICT A DRY SLOT AFTER THE INITIAL WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...THEN BRING THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME PERIOD (WED NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING) FOR BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM
DEPICT STRONG GRADIENT FORCING COMBINED WITH THE WRAP AROUND SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD FOR THURSDAY...ABOUT 10-15F DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS
FORECAST MONDAY-WED.
LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK...THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. RESULTANT WEATHER
WITH THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMALS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP ANY STRONG
STORM SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
AS WAVES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
AT NOON CST...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
WILL MOVE EAST AND DRAG A WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 04Z. TONIGHT THE WAR FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
540 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN SOME DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
IF I-76 WHILE SNOW IS FLARING UP AGAIN NEAR CLEVELAND AS THE NEXT
PUSH OF MOISTURE SEEN MOVING SE ON THE DTX RADAR ARRIVES. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CARRY SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF NE OHIO
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY REALLY
DECREASING TOWARDS 9 PM AS THE RUC SHOWS MOISTURE DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY AFTER THAT TIME. COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SNOWBELT...WHILE AREAS FURTHER INLAND WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS. CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED NORTH OF
LAKE ERIE AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH SO THERE WILL BE
AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF THE LOW NOW OVER VIRGINIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE LOW
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOW OVER MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. LAST LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA WILL
END THIS EVENING...THOUGH COULD STILL SEE A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. HIGH FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER FORECAST AREA
TOWARD MIDNIGHT LOCAL. AS IT DOES CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN. OF
COURSE CLOUDS FROM NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM ALREADY INTO WRN INDIANA
SO DO NOT THINK SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW WILL START QUIET ENOUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BUT
THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PANHANDLE LOW
OVERNIGHT...THEN TRACK IT NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO TOMORROW EVENING AND
THEN LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT ITS EXACT
TRACK BUT IT APPEARS THAT MODELS ARE TRACKING LOW ACROSS WESTERN
OHIO. SNOW AMOUNTS STILL HOVERING CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
3 TO 5 INCHES. AS QUICKLY AS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE...AND WITH
THE CURRENT TRACK ACROSS LAKE ERIE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. AREAS OF NE OH AND
NW PA COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS WITH SO MUCH DOUBT AS TO THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE LOW.
THIS STORM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO
GENERATE SOME SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS SIMILAR ON MOST OF THE
MODELS AND IS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ON A FRONT CROSSING THE MIDWEST. WE REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE LOW WITH RAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THUNDER IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND GET THAT SPECIFIC
WITH THE FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND RAIN WILL POSE A
FLOOD RISK AS WELL AS AN ICE JAM RISK ON THE OUR SLOWER AND COLDER
WATERWAYS. BY FRIDAY THE LOW GETS ABSORBED IN THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE GEM DEVELOPS A SECOND WAVE ON THE FRONT
AND IS SLOWER TO END THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NE OH/NW PA ON FRIDAY
AND WILL WATCH TO SEE IF THIS TREND DEVELOPS ON ANY OF THE OTHER
PROMINENT MODELS.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND MOST
MODELS BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH LATER SATURDAY...THEN
DEVELOP A WAVE ON THE FRONT TO OUR EAST. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERHAPS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. THE ECMWF RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS A FULL BLOWN SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND IS AN
OUTLIER. THE FORECAST WILL KEEP SATURDAY MILD THEN BRING COLDER
WEATHER BACK BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR. WITH THE NNW FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...A FEW LAKE ENHANCED PATCHES OF SNOW COULD
LINGER NE OH/NW PA UNTIL EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN TONIGHT WITH CLEARING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO TUESDAY. NON- IFR
LIKELY REDEVELOPING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ACTIVE THIS WEEK WITH
STRONGER WINDS AND WIND SHIFTS ON LAKE ERIE.
NORTH WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BECOME RATHER BRISK MONDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE WESTERN BASIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GOES BY ON MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD SEE 25 TO 30
KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT COMES QUICK...WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND WINDS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH CHANCE TO SETTLE DOWN. THERE
COULD BE A BREAK FOR A SHORT TIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONGER AND WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH 25 TO PERHAPS 30 KNOTS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...THE ICE WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SHIFT AND MOVE LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/KEC
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
1001 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING AS NW OREGON IS
BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE NEXT STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE WIND AND
HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS PLENTY OF CASCADE SNOW. A MUCH COOLER AND
SHOWERY PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE THIRD FRONT EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS LIKELY DROPPING INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM UPDATE...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE NON-PRECIPITATION
WARNINGS AND THE WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.
ALTHOUGH THE WIND TONIGHT WILL BE LESS CONVECTIVE DRIVEN THAN THE
FRONT LAST NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INLAND AGAIN IN
THE VALLEY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND WIND GUSTS MAY
RESULT IN MINOR DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES TO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
HAVE CONVERTED THE WINTER WEATHER WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN OREGON
CASCADES TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH AND THINK THE SW
WASHINGTON CASCADES WILL GET THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW AND THE WARNING
LOOKS GOOD THERE. THE OREGON CASCADES WILL ALSO GET A GOOD DUMPING OF
SNOW BUT THE SNOW WILL HAVE A LESS DURATION FOR THE OREGON CASCADES
COMPARED TO WASHINGTON AND EXPECT LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED THE CASCADES OF LANE COUNTY INTO THE ADVISORY. EXPECT THE
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES WILL HAVE HIGH-END ADVISORY AMOUNTS...AROUND
7 TO 10 INCHES...WHEREAS THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES WILL HAVE LOW-END
ADVISORY AMOUNTS 5 TO 8 INCHES.
ALSO MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND SKY FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON SINCE THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
HARTLEY
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS MAINTAINING MODERATE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE HAVE A BIT OF KICK WITH
THEM...PRODUCING QUARTER TO EVEN HALF INCH HAIL AS REPORTED NEAR
NEWPORT EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD START TO EASE SOME
AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW SHOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAK AND SHORT LIVED RIDGING BUILDS. QUICK ON ITS
HEELS IS A WARM FRONT OFFSHORE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE S WA
CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FEET HAS BEEN GOING WELL...WITH SURPRISE LAKES
SNOTEL SHOWING ABOUT 12" OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. SNOW LEVELS HAVE COME
DOWN WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND THIS IS ALSO
THE CASE IN THE OREGON CASCADES WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 2-5" HAS FALLEN.
SNOW LEVELS CONFIRMED BY OBS TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000
FEET. SNOW ACCUMS THIS MORNING WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE...AND THUS
WILL NOT ADD ANY ADVISORIES BUT EXPECT SNOW AT THE PASSES.
NOW ANY TIME YOU HAVE RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW AND STRONG
UPPER JET WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
RIDE ALONG THESE ZONES AND CAN BE CHALLENGING TO KNOW QUITE WHERE
THEY HEAD ONSHORE. WE WON`T BE SEEING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS TAKING
PLACE LIKE WE SAW YESTERDAY WITH A DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
AND THUS ANY SURFACE LOWS WILL BE WEAKER...BUT CAN LOCALLY ENHANCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. BUT WE WILL HAVE SEVERAL
DECENT WAVES PASSING BY ALONG AND TO OUR NORTH. THE LEAD WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAYS...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP WITH THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND SEVERAL
TO FOLLOW THIS WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN TIER.
THEREFORE OUR HIGHEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM INITIALLY IS THE WINDS.
I LIKE THE EVENING SHIFTS EARLIER THOUGHTS ON THIS. 925/950MB FLOW IN
THE COASTAL JET WERE DEPICTED AT 83/73KT RESPECTIVELY. THE FLOW
YESTERDAY WAS ALSO MARKEDLY STABLE IN THE WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME.
TODAY WE ARE AND WILL REMAIN QUITE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE. STABILITY
WILL WEAKEN SOME AS THE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE PASSES THROUGH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND SO THE LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT SOME BLOCKING AND
COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT. WE DO SEE SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS. WIND SPEEDS
ARE STILL EASILY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST...BUT THE
FEELING IS THAT THE EXTREME WINDS FOUND ON THE HEADLANDS YESTERDAY
WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT. THAT SAID THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE
MORE PRONE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF MORE SOUTHWESTERLY HIGH WINDS. HIGH
WIND WATCH IS UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING BELOW
HIGH WINDS...THOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE THERE TOO. AS FOR STRONGER WINDS
IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE GRADIENTS SUN/SUN NIGHT.
NONETHELESS...THE 00Z UW WRFGFS RUN SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 40-50 KT
GUSTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUN EVENING. THE RAP SHOWS THE
GRADIENT GETTING A BIT LESS SOUTHEASTERLY AND TARGETS THE CENTRAL
VALLEY FROM SALEM NORTH TO THE SOUTH METRO AREA OF PORTLAND. THE GFS
HINTS AT THIS TOO BUT IT IS LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IT
ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE INDIVIDUAL SURFACE LOWS TRACK.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SIMILAR VALUES TO THOSE SEEN YESTERDAY AND THERE
WERE ONLY A FEW GUSTS THAT REACHED OVER 45 MPH. COULD GO EITHER WAY
AND IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK TO SEE IF
ANY SMALLER SCALE LOWS FORM THAT WILL HELP TO ORIENT THE GRADIENT.
FOR NOW WILL MENTION 40-45 MPH. THE THEME IS WINDIER CONDITIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS.
THE NEXT IMPACT WILL THEN BE FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTER A PERIOD
OF MODEST RAINFALL WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PORTION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
WHEN THE WINDS START TO REALLY PICKUP...ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES. THIS IS NOT YOUR CLASSIC
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SITUATION WITH SUPER HIGH PW VALUES. BUT WHAT THIS
SYSTEM IS LACKING FROM IN MOISTURE...IT MAY MAKE UP ENOUGH IN A
STRONGER FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AND ALSO BETTER LAPSE RATES
WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE MODELS IDEA OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA WILL BE FIRMLY ROOTED IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOW LOOKING AT
THE 4KM EMC WRF REFLECTIVITY DEPICTS A VERY INTENSE BAND OF RAINFALL
WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WE FIRST GET IN ON A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN THE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS POINTED
NORTH OF THE AREA INITIALLY IN THE EVENING. IT IS ORIENTED PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND THUS THIS BAND WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING
INITIALLY IT WILL THEN SAG SOUTH AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
NEAR...WHICH MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS STARTING TO
OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING OUR FOCUS TO NOT ONLY POTENTIAL
RIVER FLOODING FOR S WA AND N OR COASTAL RIVERS...BUT THESE RATES ARE
CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF URBAN AND STREET FLOODING. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER..ALL IT WILL TAKE IS A 1-3 INCH EVENT TO CAUSE AT LEAST A
COUPLE RIVERS TO COME CLOSE TO FLOOD IF NOT GET OVER. AND THERE ARE
SEVERAL WAVES THAT WILL BE RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THAT WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ON THE SAME AREAS WHEREAS THIS WAS NOT THE CASE
ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT IN WATCHING AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. WITH THE STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW...SOME OF
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SHIELD THE VALLEY A BIT...BUT WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE PASSING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY/SQUALLY TYPE PRECIPITATION EVEN FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE RIGHT DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
MEANWHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL FINALLY GET A SOLID DUMPING OF SNOWFALL.
HAVE UPGRADED THE S WA CASCADES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR 1-2 FT
OF SNOW. HAVE LEFT THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES IN A WATCH...AS IT IS
NOT CLEAR HOW HEAVY THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. THAT
BEING SAID MONDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF PRETTY HEAVY SNOW
WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1" PER HOUR...BUT WILL NEED TO SEE HOW LONG
THIS LAST AS THE PRECIP AXIS EASES AS YOU HEAD SOUTH. TOTALS STILL
LOOK TO APPROACH 1 FOOT IN SPOTS...POSSIBLY A BIT MORE.
THE FRONT CLEARS LATER MONDAY FOR A BREAK BUT ANOTHER WET SYSTEM IS
ON ITS HEELS FOR TUESDAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH AND DROPPING SNOW LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY BY
TUESDAY NIGHT./KMD
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FEW SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN WET AND COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM IS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER AND MORE
SHOWERS...DROPPING SLOW LEVELS TO 800 TO 1000 FT. A BUILDING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AND LIKELY LEADING TO
A PERIOD OF DRYING. 27/KMD
&&
.AVIATION...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS NEAR 5000 FT
AND A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT SYSTEM WILL PUSH
INTO REGION AFTER 18Z ON COAST...AND AFTER 20Z INLAND AS RAIN AND
MVFR CIGS INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS AREA. WILL SEE S WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT DEVELOP AFTER 20Z TODAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS. AS FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE INCREASING
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN. SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED
THIS EVENING. /27
&&
.MARINE...SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF SUB GALE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
WIDESPREAD GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOLID SOUTHERLY GALES AGAIN BY
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COASTAL JET WILL DEVELOP
EARLY THIS EVENING PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE INNER WATERS BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET 50+ KT GUSTS AND HAVE DECIDED
TO LIMIT THE STORM WARNING TO THE INNER WATERS WHILE MAINTAINING
THE GALES FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS CURRENTLY 15 TO 18 FT. WITH INCREASED WINDS LATER...SEAS
WILL BUILD. LIKELY CLOSE TO 20 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EASILY
20 TO 25 FT THIS EVENING. MAY GET BRIEF TIMES OF 25 TO 30 FT SEAS
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS RATHER LOW ON THE SPECIFICS. SEAS SUBSIDE
BELOW 20 FT MON AM.
ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEMS...ALBEIT WEAKER...WILL IMPACT THE REGION
NEXT WEEK...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY. THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD KEEP SEAS WELL ABOVE 10 FT FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SEAS POSSIBLY PUSHING 20 FT AT TIMES.
JBONK/NEUROCKMANEZ
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN
LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON
COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH
OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM MONDAY FOR CASCADES
LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST MONDAY
FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON
COAST-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.
WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR
GREATER VANCOUVER AREA.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
MONDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
PST MONDAY.
STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE
OR OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1000 AM PST Sun Feb 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Stormy weather will continue through Thursday. The East Slopes of
the Cascades, as well as northeast Washington and north Idaho will
have a good chance of accumulating snow tonight. The Columbia
Basin and Palouse will experience windy conditions today through
Monday. On Wednesday and Thursday, snow levels will drop to the
valley floors over most of the Inland Northwest. Drier, more
stable weather is expected next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A moderately unstable westerly flow will be over the area today
behind the cold front that went through last night. Strong
downslope flow off the Cascades will keep most of the shower
activity near the Cascade crest and Central Panhandle Mountains.
A weak short wave ridge ahead of the next system will result in
the mid levels of the atmosphere warming slightly into this
afternoon which will cut down on afternoon shallow convection
potential which should allow showers to remain confined mainly to
the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. The latest HRRR shows a few
showers could develop as far west as the Idaho Palouse and Coeur
D`Alene area with most of Central and Eastern Washington remaining
dry. With the 12z model runs showing a similar scenario
precipitation chances were cut back for the remainder of today for
the Okanogan Valley and Highlands as well as the eastern third of
Washington. Also cut back pops a bit for Sandpoint with the high
terrain being the most favored for numerous shower activity. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Rain and snow showers will mainly be confined to the
upslope mountainous zones though this afternoon. MVFR stratocumulus
at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE will be gradually lifting through the afternoon
becoming VFR by 22z. The next weather system will spread a mix of
rain and snow into the region tonight...with the main focus north of
Interstate 90 as strong southerly winds upslopes into the high
terrain. Gusty winds will impact all TAF sites except KEAT which
stay sheltered as the surface but LLWS will develop around 05z. The
band of precipitation will gradually sag south overnight into
Monday morning. Lowering CIGS are expected after precipitation
develops with MVFR conditions expected over the eastern TAF sites
and possibly KEAT. Model show quite a bit of differences regarding
the precise onset of precipitation around the KGEG-KSFF-KCOE
corridor with precipitation type also more uncertain so confidence
is lowest for these areas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 41 34 43 31 39 28 / 10 70 70 30 80 60
Coeur d`Alene 41 33 42 30 39 28 / 20 80 80 30 80 80
Pullman 44 36 44 32 41 30 / 20 40 80 40 80 60
Lewiston 50 37 50 35 46 33 / 10 20 60 30 80 50
Colville 41 34 42 29 40 28 / 20 100 50 30 80 70
Sandpoint 40 32 39 30 39 29 / 40 100 80 40 80 90
Kellogg 37 32 37 30 39 28 / 80 100 100 60 80 90
Moses Lake 47 36 48 32 44 30 / 0 40 40 10 80 30
Wenatchee 44 32 45 30 41 28 / 10 40 30 10 80 40
Omak 41 32 43 28 39 25 / 10 70 30 10 80 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
Monday for Central Panhandle Mountains.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST
Monday for Northern Panhandle.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST
Monday for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST
Monday for East Slopes Northern Cascades.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
849 AM PST Sun Feb 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Stormy weather will continue through Thursday. The East Slopes of
the Cascades, as well as northeast Washington and north Idaho will
have a good chance of accumulating snow tonight. The Columbia
Basin and Palouse will experience windy conditions today through
Monday. On Wednesday and Thursday, snow levels will drop to the
valley floors over most of the Inland Northwest. Drier, more
stable weather is expected next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A moderately unstable westerly flow will be over the area today
behind the cold front that went through last night. Strong
downslope flow off the Cascades will keep most of the shower
activity near the Cascade crest and Central Panhandle Mountains.
A weak short wave ridge ahead of the next system will result in
the mid levels of the atmosphere warming slightly into this
afternoon which will cut down on afternoon shallow convection
potential which should allow showers to remain confined mainly to
the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. The latest HRRR shows a few
showers could develop as far west as the Idaho Palouse and Coeur
D`Alene area with most of Central and Eastern Washington remaining
dry. With the 12z model runs showing a similar scenario
precipitation chances were cut back for the remainder of today for
the Okanogan Valley and Highlands as well as the eastern third of
Washington. Also cut back pops a bit for Sandpoint with the high
terrain being the most favored for numerous shower activity. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Rain and snow showers will mainly be confined to the
upslope mountainous zones this morning and this afternoon. The next
round of widespread warm frontal precipitation will develop over
eastern Washington and north Idaho between 00z-03z. The best frontal
forcing will likely be along and north of Interstate 90. The
Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry airports will have a good shot at wet
snow accumulations tonight. Snow levels will be tough with this
system, but it looks like it will be a bit too warm for significant
accumulations around Spokane, Coeur D`Alene, Wenatchee and Pullman.
/GKoch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 41 34 43 31 39 28 / 10 70 70 30 80 60
Coeur d`Alene 41 33 42 30 39 28 / 20 80 80 30 80 80
Pullman 44 36 44 32 41 30 / 20 40 80 40 80 60
Lewiston 50 37 50 35 46 33 / 10 20 60 30 80 50
Colville 41 34 42 29 40 28 / 20 100 50 30 80 70
Sandpoint 40 32 39 30 39 29 / 40 100 80 40 80 90
Kellogg 37 32 37 30 39 28 / 80 100 100 60 80 90
Moses Lake 47 36 48 32 44 30 / 0 40 40 10 80 30
Wenatchee 44 32 45 30 41 28 / 10 40 30 10 80 40
Omak 41 32 43 28 39 25 / 10 70 30 10 80 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
Monday for Central Panhandle Mountains.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST
Monday for Northern Panhandle.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST
Monday for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST
Monday for East Slopes Northern Cascades.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
316 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ON HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALBERTA THROUGH
IDAHO...RIDGING FROM TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.. WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE INFLECTION
POINT EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS AT THE
SURFACE WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. THIS
RESULTED IN CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY SPREADING EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN
PLACE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER
ANALYSIS SHOWED VALUES AROUND 0.5 INCH FROM OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...COMPARED TO 0.1-0.25 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MAIN FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SNOW IS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER IDAHO WHICH REACHES THE
FORECAST AREA AT 18Z MONDAY. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT BETWEEN 12-18Z
MONDAY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT. IN RESPONSE LIFT GREATLY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND
TO BALANCE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND IT. THE LIFT WILL ACT ON
THE PLUME OF 0.5 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER SEEN OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS TO PRODUCE THE SNOW.
SOME INTERESTING FACETS FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...
1. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...IT
APPEARS A WARM ADVECTION BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST MN AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. UNSURE HOW MUCH OF THIS SNOW WILL REACH THE
SURFACE AS MODELS DEPICT LEFTOVER DRY AIR BETWEEN 750-900MB THAT
NEEDS SATURATING. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE KEPT LOWER
PRIOR TO 09Z. AS WE APPROACH 12Z...THE BIG BATCH OF SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
2. THERE IS A VERY TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS FOR 12-18Z MONDAY TO BE THE
TIME PERIOD OF HEAVIEST QPF/SNOW. WITH A LITTLE NEGATIVE EPV THROWN
IN IN THE MID LEVELS...EASILY COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE NATURE TO
THE SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR EASILY SEEM PLAUSIBLE
FOR A COUPLE HOURS...KNOCKING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 MILE. THESE
RATES SHOULD OCCUR AT THE WORST TIME...MORNING COMMUTE. ALTHOUGH
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
ARE ONLY FORECAST RIGHT NOW IN THE 4-5 INCH RANGE...BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA...ISSUED A WARNING BASED ON TIME OF DAY. FAR WESTERN AREAS
SUCH AS ROCHESTER LOOK TO GET INTO SOME BLOWING SNOW TOO. ALSO
WARNED FOR THAT AREA BECAUSE THE 16.12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED QPF UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...NOW NEAR 1/3 OF
AN INCH.
3. WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOULD MAKE THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE MUCH
MORE MANAGEABLE...PROVIDED ROADS ARE CLEANED UP IN TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
AFTER AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY
QUIET. THERE ARE SOME ITEMS OF INTEREST...
1. TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL...ALLOWING PACIFIC AIR TO FLOW INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WARMEST DAY SHOULD COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
CLIMB TO 4-6C...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO TOP OUT AS HIGH AS THE
LOW 40S. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LAST TIME LA CROSSE WAS ABOVE
NORMAL WAS JANUARY 30TH. AT ROCHESTER...IT WAS JANUARY 16TH.
2. STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF RUNS FROM 15.00Z AND PRIOR TOOK THIS SYSTEM AND REALLY
INTENSIFIED IT WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THAT CHANGED WITH THE 15.12Z ECMWF AND LATEST 16.12Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS CONTINUE TO BRING THE SYSTEM INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
BY THURSDAY EVENING. ALONG ITS TRACK...ASSISTED BY A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST...A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ENOUGH WARM AIR LOOKS TO GET
PULLED UP INTO THE SYSTEM TO ALLOW FOR A MIX OF PRECIPITATION IN
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOMETHING WORTH MONITORING.
3. SYSTEM TO BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE 16.12Z GFS AND CANADIAN BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
DEFORMATION SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO SIGN OF THIS SHORTWAVE IN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW
JUST HAVE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST.
4. HEADING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS
HAVE MATCHED UP WELL WITH CFS FORECASTS SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES
GOING BACK BELOW NORMAL AS TROUGHING REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. BY THE WEEKEND...850MB TEMPS MAY GET STUCK BELOW -10C
AGAIN...WITH SOME HINTS OF -20C AIR COMING AT THE AREA JUST BEYOND
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
GOOD VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL SWING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPSTREAM LOW DROPPING INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS LOW WILL THEN
MOVE EAST...INTO/ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/MON...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT TO HEAVY SNOW AND BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE
TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING.
CIGS/VSBYS DROP TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MOISTURE INCREASE AND
DEEPER LIFT AHEAD OF THIS LOW MOVES IN. STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE
MOISTURE/LIFT SPREADS ACROSS KRST MAINLY 09-15Z AT KRST AND KLSE
MAINLY 11-17Z. IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME IN THE
SN/+SN...ALONG WITH WINDS 20G30KT AND BLSN/DRIFTING SNOW AT SITES
LIKE KRST.
TAF SITES LOOKING AT AROUND 5 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME...WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR EXPECTED FOR A ROUGHLY 3
HR PERIOD AS THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW PASSES...IMPACTING AIRPORT
OPS AND SNOW REMOVAL OPERATIONS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO AT
LEAST MVFR LATE MON MORNING AT KRST AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS KLSE AS
THE SNOW BAND AND LOW MOVE QUICKLY IN TO EASTERN WI.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RRS