Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/14/14


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1017 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014 .AVIATION...SOME CONCERN REGARDING THE IMPACT OF AN AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY IMPACT THE WINDS AT KDEN. COULD SEE WINDS BECOME NELY FOR A TIME AFTER 10Z...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY STRATUS MAKING IT INTO DENVER BUT WL STILL NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON THINGS OVERNIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014/ UPDATE...RADAR INDICATING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW DROPPING ACROSS SERN WY/WRN NEBRASKA...WITH THE RUC MOVES THIS AREA OF PCPN INTO OUR NERN PLAINS ZONES OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED CHC/SLGT CHC POPS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM NEW RAYMER TO LAST CHANCE TNGT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014/ UPDATE...LATEST CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS TOWARDS 00Z THU AND CONTINUING THROUGH 19Z THU. AS A RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ZONES 35 AND 36. AVIATION...VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH S/SWLY WINDS FOR KDEN AND KAPA THE MOST PART...MORE WLY AT KBJC. STRONGER WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR KBJC LATE WED AFTN/EVNG THAT THOSE REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT TAF...SO WL LIKELY ADJUST THAT STARTING AROUND 21-22Z WED AFTN AT THE 06Z ISSUANCE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014/ SHORT TERM...THE RAP...NAM AND GFS MODELS ALL INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. RADAR DATA FROM SALT LAKE CITY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN ECHOES OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL APPARENTLY BE JUST ENOUGH TO GENERATE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE MENTIONED UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES NOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND FOOTHILL AREAS WILL BE THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND UP TO 55 MPH OVER PARTS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL WINDS UP TO 120 KNOTS WILL BE DRIVING THE WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE MOUNTAIN WAVE COMES DOWN OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ON THE PLAINS...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE LOWER 20S. THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN WARMING TODAY UNDER THE BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO THE VERY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE A THING OF THE PAST. LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE PRETTY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE JET MAXIMUM IS PROGGED TO BE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST THOSE FIVE PERIODS. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE VERY LITTLE UPWARD MOTION FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE TIME WEAK DOWNWARD ENERGY IS PROGGED. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY DOWNSLOPING WINDS. CONCERNING MOISTURE...MODELS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AT LEAST ON THE GFS. THE ECMWF HAS CONSIDERABLE LESS DURING THAT TIME. THE NAM IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. MOISTURE IS LIMITED OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ON ALL THE MODELS. THE QPF FIELDS DO SHOW LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES ALL FIVE PERIOD. SO CONCERNING POPS AND THE MOUNTAINS HIGHLIGHTS .MOISTURE IS GOOD ON THE GFS...POOR ON THE ECMWF. THERE IS WARM AIR ADVECTION MUCH OF THE TIME AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN THEY SHOULD BE FOR OPTIMUM CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THERE IS PRETTY DECENT WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION TO AID IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT HOWEVER. THERE IS LITTLE HELP IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY DEPARTMENT AND THE MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE. QPF FIELDS POINT TO ADVISORY AMOUNTS...MAYBE. WILL LEAVE WATCH HIGHLIGHTS ALONE AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED ZERO POPS FOR THE PLAINS. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 3-5 C WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY`S. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE A TAD COOLER ON FRIDAY. FOR THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT DECREASES A BIT AND IS MOSTLY WESTERLY. THERE IS SOME ALPINE MOISTURE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT .BUT NOTHING GREAT. THE REST OF THE DAYS ARE PRETTY DRY... ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ALL FOUR DAYS. AVIATION...NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN UNLIMITED. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR COZ035-036. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR COZ031-033-034. && $$ SHORT TERM...COOPER LONG TERM....RJK AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
948 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014 .UPDATE...RADAR INDICATING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW DROPPING ACROSS SERN WY/WRN NEBRASKA...WITH THE RUC MOVES THIS AREA OF PCPN INTO OUR NERN PLAINS ZONES OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED CHC/SLGT CHC POPS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM NEW RAYMER TO LAST CHANCE TNGT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014/ UPDATE...LATEST CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS TOWARDS 00Z THU AND CONTINUING THROUGH 19Z THU. AS A RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ZONES 35 AND 36. && .AVIATION...VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH S/SWLY WINDS FOR KDEN AND KAPA THE MOST PART...MORE WLY AT KBJC. STRONGER WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR KBJC LATE WED AFTN/EVNG THAT THOSE REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT TAF...SO WL LIKELY ADJUST THAT STARTING AROUND 21-22Z WED AFTN AT THE 06Z ISSUANCE. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014/ SHORT TERM...THE RAP...NAM AND GFS MODELS ALL INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. RADAR DATA FROM SALT LAKE CITY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN ECHOES OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL APPARENTLY BE JUST ENOUGH TO GENERATE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE MENTIONED UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES NOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND FOOTHILL AREAS WILL BE THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND UP TO 55 MPH OVER PARTS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL WINDS UP TO 120 KNOTS WILL BE DRIVING THE WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE MOUNTAIN WAVE COMES DOWN OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ON THE PLAINS...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE LOWER 20S. THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN WARMING TODAY UNDER THE BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO THE VERY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE A THING OF THE PAST. LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE PRETTY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE JET MAXIMUM IS PROGGED TO BE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST THOSE FIVE PERIODS. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE VERY LITTLE UPWARD MOTION FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE TIME WEAK DOWNWARD ENERGY IS PROGGED. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY DOWNSLOPING WINDS. CONCERNING MOISTURE...MODELS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AT LEAST ON THE GFS. THE ECMWF HAS CONSIDERABLE LESS DURING THAT TIME. THE NAM IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. MOISTURE IS LIMITED OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ON ALL THE MODELS. THE QPF FIELDS DO SHOW LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES ALL FIVE PERIOD. SO CONCERNING POPS AND THE MOUNTAINS HIGHLIGHTS ..MOISTURE IS GOOD ON THE GFS...POOR ON THE ECMWF. THERE IS WARM AIR ADVECTION MUCH OF THE TIME AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN THEY SHOULD BE FOR OPTIMUM CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THERE IS PRETTY DECENT WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION TO AID IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT HOWEVER. THERE IS LITTLE HELP IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY DEPARTMENT AND THE MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE. QPF FIELDS POINT TO ADVISORY AMOUNTS...MAYBE. WILL LEAVE WATCH HIGHLIGHTS ALONE AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED ZERO POPS FOR THE PLAINS. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 3-5 C WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY`S. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE A TAD COOLER ON FRIDAY. FOR THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT DECREASES A BIT AND IS MOSTLY WESTERLY. THERE IS SOME ALPINE MOISTURE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ..BUT NOTHING GREAT. THE REST OF THE DAYS ARE PRETTY DRY... ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ALL FOUR DAYS. AVIATION...NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN UNLIMITED. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR COZ035-036. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR COZ031-033-034. && $$ SHORT TERM...COOPER LONG TERM....RJK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
715 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A NOR`EASTER WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS POWERFUL STORM WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING...BUT BRISK CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... ...THE ENTIRE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING... AS OF 642 PM EST...HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOONTIME TOMORROW. WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...GREATER CAPITAL REGION...EASTERN CATSKILLS...HELDERBERGS...MID HUDSON VALLEY... TACONICS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION... A LULL IN THE PCPN CONTINUES OVER NW CT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS WITH THE MAIN BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION PCPN AND THE RESIDUAL BANDS/BANDLETS LOCATED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOW TOTALS HAVE COME IN THUS FAR...PLEASE SEE OUR LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE NOR`EASTER IS ABOUT 100-125 MILES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS HOUR AND HAS LOWERED TO 986 HPA BASED ON THE RUC AND MSAS ANALYSES...AND THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 8-10+ HPA/3 HRS ARE NOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THE LATEST GFS/NAM/ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS THE IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE TRACKING A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS SHIFT HAVING THE CYCLONE MOVE OVER RI AND ERN MA WILL ALLOW THE HEAVY SNOWBAND ON THE NW SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS FAR WEST AS THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SRN DACKS NOW. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS A DISTINCT DRY SLOT MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO NJ AND PARTS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE PCPN TO LIGHTEN IN INTENSITY WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN TACONICS SRN- CNTRL BERKS AND NW CT. THE MID LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A POSSIBLE LOSS OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE CLOUDS...RESULTING IN THE MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR A SHORT-PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER...THE PCPN IS STARTING TO FILL BACK IN AHEAD OF THE COMPACT CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER ERN VA THE DELMARVA. THE H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NC/VA HAS BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL CAPTURE THE SFC CYCLONE...AND ALLOW VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL TO RETURN BTWN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. OUR CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR A NORTH TO SOUTH OR SLIGHTLY N/NW TO S/SE ORIENTED MESOSCALE SNOWBAND TO HIT MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST HRRR-3KM COLUMNAR BASE REF PRODUCT SHOWS POTENTIAL EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COALESCING INTO AN INTENSE BAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IT APPEARS WILL HIT THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. BASED ON CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA THESE MESOSCALE SNOWBANDS ARE VERY LIKELY WITH THE H700 CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING FROM ERN PA/NJ/DELMARVA REGION AT 00Z TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z/FRI. ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW IS WHERE A SIGNIFICANT PIVOTING MESOSCALE SNOWBAND IS LIKELY TO SET UP. ALSO...THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR LEFT EXIT REGION REGION OF 130-140+ KT JET STREAK WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH STRONG OMEGA/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. A QUICK CHECK OF CROSS-SECTIONS DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM THE NAM AND GFS TONIGHT SHOW STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES WITH STEEPLY SLOPED FGEN BENEATH NEGATIVE EPV /AT 400-500 HPA/ BTWN 00Z- 06Z WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE SYSTEM...AND THE OPTIMAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE /-10C TO -16C/ INTERSECTS THIS AREA OF STRONG FGEN AND OMEGA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SOME HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOK LIKELY. THE STRONG MESOSCALE BANDING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE HEAVIER SNOW /THUNDER SNOW !/. SOME CG LTG STRIKES CONTINUE OVER THE DELMARVA REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOWS A LARGE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING UTILIZED FOR THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. PWAT ANOMALIES ARE 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS /PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OVER THE ERN CATSKILL/BERKSHIRES/SRN GREENS/...ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. OVERALL...THE TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN INCREASED WITH 14 TO 18 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND THE NRN CATSKILLS SOUTH AND EAST EXCEPT FOR SRN LITCHFIELD...WHERE 10-14 INCHES IS LIKELY. THE MIXED PCPN MAY KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS LOWER IN PARTS OF NW CT TO 14-18 INCHES. SNOW TOTALS OF 18-24" FOR THE SRN GREENS...PART OF THE BERKSHIRES...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS. THE WRN-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE SRN DACKS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE 8 TO 14 INCHES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES TO AROUND 975 HPA IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY DAY BREAK. N TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON. SOME OF THE GUSTS MAY NOT MIX TO THE SFC TONIGHT DUE TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...AND THE HEAVY PCPN. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 10-13:1 HAVE BEEN USED FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE WETTER SNOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE PCPN WILL MIX FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 6-8:1 WERE USED EARLY TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN BERKS/SRN TACONICS/NW CT WITH A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... TOMORROW...THE NOR`EASTER MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA BY THE EARLY PM WITH DEFORMATION SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY NOONTIME. THE WARNING GOES FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...AS MOISTURE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY BE UTILIZED. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN GREEN MTNS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND H850 TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE -6C TO -8C RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH POSSIBLY A FEW BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...POSSIBLY SOME U30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND MID AND UPPER 20S OVER THE MTNS. FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH A NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. IT APPEARS THESE SHORT-WAVES WILL NOT PHASE TOGETHER UNTIL NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TURNS NEGATIVE. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SOME CHC POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO FORECAST. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS AND L20S. SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SUBSEQUENT COASTAL WAVE BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM APPEARS IT WILL DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT IT WILL HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...AND HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE ADDED TO THE FCST AREA FOR SATURDAY. SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE COASTAL WAVE PASSES WELL EAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY NIGHT AND TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. SOME LAKE EFFECT AND WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER AGAIN. AFTER MAX TEMPS IN THE M20S TO L30S...LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS /EXCEPT SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AS A STRONGER SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCT SNOW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS AROUND ZERO TO AROUND 12 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS MAY CONTINUE STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILL READINGS TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S. A FAST MOVING BUT RELATIVELY MOIST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NY STATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT...MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PCPN TYPE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 20. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT TUESDAY MORNING...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND IT MAY KEEP SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S AS THE AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. THE RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...THERE WAS A BREAK IN THE SNOW ACROSS THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AS THE HEAVY SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PART OF THE STORM HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES AND WEAKENED. HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AROUND THE UPPER LOW WAS MOVE MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT 00Z AND IS FORECAST TO REACH KPOU AROUND 02Z...KPSF AROUND 03Z...AND KALB/KGFL AROUND 04Z-05Z. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO START WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS AS THE HEAVY SNOW MOVES IN. EXPECT ABOUT A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW AT EACH TAF SITE. BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND CIGS/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE. BY 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 17Z. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AT KALB/KPSF FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN. SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY LIKELY SN. SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. A WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN VT...AND NRN CATSKILLS SOUTH AND EAST. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM A WIDESPREAD INCH TO INCH AND AN HALF OVER THE HSA...EXCEPT HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OVER THE WRN DACKS AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE INITIALLY A SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX EVENT. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ039>043- 047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038. MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MAZ001-025. VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA NEAR TERM...WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...GJM AVIATION...GJM HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
642 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A NOR`EASTER WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS POWERFUL STORM WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING...BUT BRISK CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... ...THE ENTIRE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING... AS OF 642 PM EST...HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOONTIME TOMORROW. WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...GREATER CAPITAL REGION...EASTERN CATSKILLS...HELDERBERGS...MID HUDSON VALLEY... TACONICS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION... A LULL IN THE PCPN CONTINUES OVER NW CT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS WITH THE MAIN BATCH OF WARM ADVECTION PCPN AND THE RESIDUAL BANDS/BANDLETS LOCATED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST. SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOW TOTALS HAVE COME IN THUS FAR...PLEASE SEE OUR LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE NOR`EASTER IS ABOUT 100-125 MILES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS HOUR AND HAS LOWERED TO 986 HPA BASED ON THE RUC AND MSAS ANALYSES...AND THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 8-10+ HPA/3 HRS ARE NOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THE LATEST GFS/NAM/ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS THE IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE TRACKING A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS SHIFT HAVING THE CYCLONE MOVE OVER RI AND ERN MA WILL ALLOW THE HEAVY SNOWBAND ON THE NW SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS FAR WEST AS THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SRN DACKS NOW. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS A DISTINCT DRY SLOT MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO NJ AND PARTS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE PCPN TO LIGHTEN IN INTENSITY WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN TACONICS SRN- CNTRL BERKS AND NW CT. THE MID LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A POSSIBLE LOSS OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE CLOUDS...RESULTING IN THE MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR A SHORT-PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER...THE PCPN IS STARTING TO FILL BACK IN AHEAD OF THE COMPACT CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER ERN VA THE DELMARVA. THE H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NC/VA HAS BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL CAPTURE THE SFC CYCLONE...AND ALLOW VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL TO RETURN BTWN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. OUR CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR A NORTH TO SOUTH OR SLIGHTLY N/NW TO S/SE ORIENTED MESOSCALE SNOWBAND TO HIT MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST HRRR-3KM COLUMNAR BASE REF PRODUCT SHOWS POTENTIAL EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COALESCING INTO AN INTENSE BAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IT APPEARS WILL HIT THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. BASED ON CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA THESE MESOSCALE SNOWBANDS ARE VERY LIKELY WITH THE H700 CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING FROM ERN PA/NJ/DELMARVA REGION AT 00Z TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z/FRI. ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW IS WHERE A SIGNIFICANT PIVOTING MESOSCALE SNOWBAND IS LIKELY TO SET UP. ALSO...THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR LEFT EXIT REGION REGION OF 130-140+ KT JET STREAK WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH STRONG OMEGA/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. A QUICK CHECK OF CROSS-SECTIONS DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM THE NAM AND GFS TONIGHT SHOW STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES WITH STEEPLY SLOPED FGEN BENEATH NEGATIVE EPV /AT 400-500 HPA/ BTWN 00Z- 06Z WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE SYSTEM...AND THE OPTIMAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE /-10C TO -16C/ INTERSECTS THIS AREA OF STRONG FGEN AND OMEGA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SOME HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOK LIKELY. THE STRONG MESOSCALE BANDING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE HEAVIER SNOW /THUNDER SNOW !/. SOME CG LTG STRIKES CONTINUE OVER THE DELMARVA REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOWS A LARGE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING UTILIZED FOR THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. PWAT ANOMALIES ARE 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS /PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OVER THE ERN CATSKILL/BERKSHIRES/SRN GREENS/...ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. OVERALL...THE TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN INCREASED WITH 14 TO 18 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND THE NRN CATSKILLS SOUTH AND EAST EXCEPT FOR SRN LITCHFIELD...WHERE 10-14 INCHES IS LIKELY. THE MIXED PCPN MAY KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS LOWER IN PARTS OF NW CT TO 14-18 INCHES. SNOW TOTALS OF 18-24" FOR THE SRN GREENS...PART OF THE BERKSHIRES...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS. THE WRN-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE SRN DACKS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE 8 TO 14 INCHES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES TO AROUND 975 HPA IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY DAY BREAK. N TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON. SOME OF THE GUSTS MAY NOT MIX TO THE SFC TONIGHT DUE TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...AND THE HEAVY PCPN. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 10-13:1 HAVE BEEN USED FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE WETTER SNOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE PCPN WILL MIX FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 6-8:1 WERE USED EARLY TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN BERKS/SRN TACONICS/NW CT WITH A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... TOMORROW...THE NOR`EASTER MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA BY THE EARLY PM WITH DEFORMATION SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY NOONTIME. THE WARNING GOES FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...AS MOISTURE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY BE UTILIZED. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN GREEN MTNS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND H850 TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE -6C TO -8C RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH POSSIBLY A FEW BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...POSSIBLY SOME U30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND MID AND UPPER 20S OVER THE MTNS. FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH A NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. IT APPEARS THESE SHORT-WAVES WILL NOT PHASE TOGETHER UNTIL NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TURNS NEGATIVE. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SOME CHC POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO FORECAST. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS AND L20S. SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SUBSEQUENT COASTAL WAVE BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM APPEARS IT WILL DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT IT WILL HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...AND HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE ADDED TO THE FCST AREA FOR SATURDAY. SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE COASTAL WAVE PASSES WELL EAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY NIGHT AND TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. SOME LAKE EFFECT AND WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER AGAIN. AFTER MAX TEMPS IN THE M20S TO L30S...LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS /EXCEPT SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AS A STRONGER SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCT SNOW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS AROUND ZERO TO AROUND 12 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS MAY CONTINUE STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILL READINGS TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S. A FAST MOVING BUT RELATIVELY MOIST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NY STATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT...MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PCPN TYPE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 20. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT TUESDAY MORNING...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND IT MAY KEEP SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S AS THE AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. THE RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE TERMINALS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING NOR`EASTER THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW INTENSITY WILL GENERALLY BE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM KPSF-KPOU. THIS EVENING THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AS THE NOR`EASTER MOVES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY LIFR/IFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT. OCCASIONAL VLIFR VSBYS IN HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM KALB-KPSF-KPOU AND POSSIBLY EVEN KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY FROM AROUND 10Z-13Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AT KALB/KPSF FRIDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN. SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY LIKELY SN. SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. A WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN VT...AND NRN CATSKILLS SOUTH AND EAST. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM A WIDESPREAD INCH TO INCH AND AN HALF OVER THE HSA...EXCEPT HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OVER THE WRN DACKS AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE INTIALLY A SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX EVENT. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ039>043- 047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038. MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MAZ001-025. VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA NEAR TERM...WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...GJM AVIATION...JPV HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
451 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CONTINUES... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH ONGOING MIXTURE OF SNOW... SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AND IMPACTS ON ALREADY WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES...TREES/LIMBS DOWN...AND ROAD CONDITIONS. CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE MAINTAINS CAA FROM THE STRONG 1032MB PARENT HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS HAS BEEN FIGHTING DIABATIC EFFECTS FROM THE OVERRUNNING GULF MOISTURE AND FLUCTUATING BETWEEN SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA. WHILE PREVIOUS UPSTREAM SLUG OF MOISTURE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF MAY HAVE LIMITED PREVIOUS DAYTIME QPF...THE HRRR VERIFIED WELL DURING THIS TIME AND WAS CONSISTENT WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT FILLING BACK IN LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING BEFORE THE EXITING OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GOOD ISENTROPIC FORCING AGAINST THE WEDGE AND UPPER FORCING FROM GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND INCREASING PVA WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH STILL WEST OF THE REGION. HAVE TRENDED POPS CLOSE TO THIS SOLUTION UNTIL NEAR 06Z THEN CLOSE TO BLEND OF GENERAL GUIDANCE AS THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE BAROCLINIC LEAF OF THE DEEPENING LOW IMPACTS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES AND TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA HAS SUPPORTED A SMALLER SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN...WHICH COULD EASILY BE MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES. THE NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE PREVIOUS ICE STORM WARNING LOOKS TO PRIMARILY GET A SLEET AND SNOW MIX SO HAVE TRANSITIONED THE COUNTIES NORTH OF I-20 INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND OUT OF THE ICE STORM ZONE. THE REST OF THE NORTH HAS RECENTLY HAD A MIXTURE OF MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW WITH SOME MORE CONVECTIVE LOOKING BANDS...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP WITH THE LOW SWINGING THROUGH. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A MORE APPARENT 700MB TROWAL ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA NEAR 06Z. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH SOME SNOW BANDING MAY REACH AND COULD DROP A QUICK 1-2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA. FOR ICE AND SNOW AMOUNTS...HAVE TONED ICE AMOUNTS DOWN TO AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER OR UP TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE WARNING AREA AND HAVE GONE WITH SIMILAR ADVERTISED SNOW AMOUNTS BEING MAXIMIZED IN THE NORTHEAST OF AN ADDITIONAL 4-8 INCHES...AND 1-3 INCHES IN A SW TO NE SWATH FROM A LAGRANGE TO ATLANTA TO ATHENS ZONE.. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE UNDERCUT BY SOME SLEET AT TIMES. FOR TEMPS...HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TRENDS WITH EVENT BUT HAVE HAD LOCAL RISES AND FALLS BY 1-2 DEGREES. SHOULD STILL REACH OVERNIGHT LOWS OF 2-3 DEGREES BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS SO WILL POSE A MAJOR THREAT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXED PRECIP FREEZING TOGETHER. ANY MELTING THAT OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY AREAS PROGGED TO REACH THE LOW 40S WILL ALSO POSE A DANGER FOR FALLING PIECES OF ICE. GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD STILL BE ENHANCED THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING LOW AND LINGERING HIGH...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIMBS AND TREES TO FALL ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. ALL-IN-ALL THE PRIMARY THREATS OF THE WINTER STORM AND ICE CONTINUE BUT ACROSS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ZONES...EVEN THOUGH SOME ICE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED LOWER. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM SO PLEASE STAY PUT AND REMAIN OFF THE ROADS AND IN A SAFE LOCATION! BAKER && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS PAST THURSDAY RIGHT NOW. FAST MOVING SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THE EVENING FRIDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME MIXING OF SNOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS PRECIPITATION SO LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRENDS AS WE GET CLOSER FOR CHANGES IN EXPECTED IMPACTS. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT MAY BE AREAS IN THE FAR NORTH THAT STILL HAVE ICE/SNOW LINGERING FROM THE CURRENT STORM. 20 LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... /ISSUED AT 339 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014/ NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ASSOCIATE MOISTURE BRINGS PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY INTO N GA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX OR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF N GA WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE FOR FAR N FULTON COUNTY AND NE TO THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS RATHER INCONSISTENT BRINGING MOISTURE ACROSS N GA SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. GFS AND EUROPEAN DIFFERING WITH A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS MUCH FASTER BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THE EUROPEAN BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AT THIS TIME FAVORING THE WPC POP GRID FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA. THIS COULD CHANGE GREATLY WITH OTHER MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME AIRMASS SEEMS TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS ONLY. BDL && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... WINTRY MIX OF PREDOMINATELY FZRA WITH SOME PL/SN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE TAF SITES...THROUGH 12Z WITH PL/SN BECOMING MORE PREDOMINANT AFTER 00Z. PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 10-16Z. GENERALLY IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z AS WELL... IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 12-18Z MOST AREAS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO 8-12KTS BY 00-06Z AND BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO NORTH. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 27 42 31 49 / 100 30 0 20 ATLANTA 28 43 34 52 / 100 20 0 20 BLAIRSVILLE 29 40 25 45 / 100 30 5 60 CARTERSVILLE 31 43 30 51 / 100 20 0 30 COLUMBUS 32 48 36 59 / 80 10 0 10 GAINESVILLE 28 43 32 49 / 100 30 0 20 MACON 30 46 32 57 / 90 20 0 10 ROME 31 43 29 50 / 100 20 5 60 PEACHTREE CITY 29 44 30 54 / 100 20 0 20 VIDALIA 32 47 35 61 / 100 20 0 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CLAYTON... COWETA...CRAWFORD...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...GLASCOCK... GREENE...HANCOCK...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JASPER... JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MERIWETHER... MONROE...MORGAN...NEWTON...PEACH...PIKE...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE... SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TREUTLEN...TROUP... TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WILKINSON. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...HARRIS...MACON... MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART... SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...WEBSTER... WHEELER...WILCOX. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA... CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...FANNIN... FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON... JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE... OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...TOWNS...UNION... WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES. && $$ SHORT TERM...BAKER LONG TERM....BDL/20 AVIATION...20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH CRIPPLING EFFECTS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE... .UPDATE... EARLY MORNING SURGE OF MOISTURE AND DIABATIC EFFECTS FIGHTING THE CAA FROM THE REINFORCED CAD WEDGE RESULTED IN 0.1-0.25 INCHES OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN TIER WITH SOME SLEET OBSERVED BETWEEN. TRENDS HAVE BEEN ON THE LOWER QPF SIDE LIKELY DUE TO AN ENHANCED SLUG OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH GA AND NORTH FL...ALLOWING FOR A MOMENTARY LULL WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHICH HAVE HAD PRIMARILY RAIN. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED PRECIP FILLING BACK IN AND A DECENT BAND OF DEVELOPMENT STARTING BACK BY 21-00Z...AND HAS VERIFIED WELL WITH BREAKS IN THE ACTION SO NOT WANTING TO ADJUST TOTALS TOO MUCH AT THE MOMENT. STILL FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND CURRENTLY DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES MAINLY IN A NW TO SE SWATH FROM NEAR CARROLLTON...THROUGH ATLANTA...THEN WITHIN THE I-20 TO I-16 CORRIDOR. STILL STRONG ISENTROPIC FORCING FORECAST AGAINST THE WEDGE COUPLED WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMIC FORCING. WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE MAIN FORECAST BUT COULD END UP ADJUSTING TOTALS A BIT WITH FRESH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... BAKER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014/ .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... /ISSUED AT 339 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014/ WE ARE WATCHING A WINTER STORM OF HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE BEGINNING TO UNFOLD ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TONIGHT. REPORTS OF SNOW AND SLEET ALREADY COMING IN ACROSS THE METRO AREA AS CAD WEDGE STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH HAS JUST CROSSED THE APPALACHIANS SO THE AGEOSTROPHIC ADJUSTMENT IS KICKING IN...AND CAD SHOULD BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THAT... IT WILL BE A MATTER OF COMPETING EFFECTS OF HORIZONTAL THERMAL ADVECTION /CAA IN SURFACE LAYER AND WAA ALOFT/ WITH LATENT HEAT EFFECTS. IN A NUTSHELL...SNOW FALLING INTO AN ABOVE-FREEZING LAYER WILL COOL THE LAYER FROM LATENT HEAT OF MELTING...AND RAIN FALLING INTO A SUB-FREEZING SURFACE LAYER WILL WARM THE LAYER FROM LATENT HEAT OF FREEZING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH ADVECTION TO COMPENSATE FOR THIS AND AT TIMES EVEN SURPASS THE DIABATIC EFFECTS. NO SURPRISE ON OVERALL SYNOPTIC FIELDS. SURFACE CAD...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND CUTS OFF TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEFORE PUSHING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST AND CAUSING MORE PROBLEMS UP THAT WAY. ECMWF AND GFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT ECMWF REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE. VERY IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC LIFT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WE ARE SOLIDLY IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THINK THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN QPF FIELDS ON NAM/GFS BUT OVERALL SOLUTION IS PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES QPF ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH AROUND AN INCH LIQUID ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER. AS THE WEATHER ENTERPRISE HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR DAYS NOW...WE ARE LOOKING AT MAINLY SNOW EXTREME NORTH...SNOW/SLEET/FZRA MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE METRO AREA...WITH MAINLY FZRA ON THE SOUTH SIDE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS IS A STORM OF HISTORICAL PROPORTIONS WITH POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC...CRIPPLING IMPACTS. SNOW RATIOS UP NORTH RUN BETWEEN 6:1 AND 10:1 WHICH LINES UP WITH WITH OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL 8:1. OVERALL A WET SNOW /VERY GOOD FOR SNOWBALLS FOR THE KIDS HOME FOR SCHOOL...AND OF COURSE SOME PARENTS HOME FROM WORK/. IN ADDITION TO WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLING...EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME SLEET FROM GENERALLY ATLANTA TO ATHENS AND POINTS NORTH. A LARGE SWATH OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TOTALS UPWARDS OF A FOOT IN EXTREME NORTHEAST ZONES. AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE SNOWFALL IS...AND MAKE NO MISTAKE THESE ARE SOME IMPRESSIVE TOTALS...IT IS THE ICE THAT WILL HAVE THE CATASTROPHIC IMPACTS. A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ICE. FOR EXAMPLE AT AHN...THE GFS WARM NOSE IS A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE NAM AND WOULD RESULT IN MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE DEPTH OF THE WARM NOSE...AM STILL LEANING TOWARD KEEPING QUITE A BIT OF FZRA IN THAT AREA. SO WITH THAT...ICE TOTALS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OUT BUT THINK THE 1/4 INCH LINE MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MAX TOTALS ALONG THE EAST I-20 CORRIDOR ARE BUMPED UP A LITTLE TO OVER AN INCH. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN CASE IT HASNT BEEN MADE CLEAR ALREADY...THESE ARE CATASTROPHIC AND CRIPPLING TOTALS WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES THAT MAY LAST FOR DAYS. IF RESIDENTS HAVE NOT COMPLETED THEIR PREPARATIONS IT MAY BE TOO LATE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE PRETTY BREEZY...GENERALLY 15-20MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR POSSIBLY 30. ADD THESE WINDS TO THE AMOUNT OF ICE EXPECTED AND THAT WILL JUST EXACERBATE THE POWER LOSS ISSUES. ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WE EXPECT MAINLY RAIN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FZRA RESULTING IN A GLAZE...SO WILL LEAVE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN PLACE. WILL START THE ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLIER JUST TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT GLAZE THIS MORNING. AS IF ALL THAT WASNT ENOUGH...STRENGTH OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT PRETTY IMPRESSIVE...AND WITH THAT THERE IS SOME NEGATIVE SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY ON TOP OF IT. THOSE ARE BIG GEEKY WORDS BUT BASICALLY IT MEANS THERE COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED /SYMMETRIC/ INSTABILITY TO DEAL WITH AND SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED CLAPS OF THUNDER. NOT ENOUGH OF A CONCERN TO ADD TO THE GRIDS BUT IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS THAT COULD EASILY AND QUICKLY CHANGE THE P-TYPE. TRYING TO CATCH HOURLY P-TYPE IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE IN AN EVENT LIKE THIS SO IT IS BEST TO JUST FOCUS ON PREDOMINANT P-TYPE. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS...LAPSE RATES INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES DECREASE ENOUGH TO CHANGE P-TYPE TO ALL SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE. LUCKILY ON THURSDAY THE TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40S ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. I WANT TO ADD A CAVEAT THAT GUIDANCE IS HORRIBLE AT TEMPERATURES WITH SNOWPACK...SO WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS TONIGHT IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT LOW TEMPS MIGHT BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECASTS ARE ADVERTISING /LIKE WHAT HAPPENED A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO/...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY BE KEPT LOWER. WILL REEVALUATE THIS WITH LATER FORECASTS. PRETTY SURE THAT THERE ARE SOME THINGS I HAVENT COVERED HERE BUT HOPEFULLY THIS LIGHT READING MATERIAL IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GET EVERYONES DAY STARTED. THE BOTTOM LINE...AS THE ENTIRE WEATHER ENTERPRISE HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR DAYS NOW... THIS-IS-AN-EVENT-OF-HISTORICAL-PROPORTIONS!! CATASTROPHIC...CRIPPLING...PARALYZING...CHOOSE YOUR ADJECTIVE. THIS IS A VERY VERY BIG DEAL ESPECIALLY FROM METRO ATLANTA EAST ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR...GENERALLY ANYWHERE SOUTH OF I-85 AND NORTH OF I-16 WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ICE TOTALS ARE FORECAST. STAY SAFE OUT THERE! TDP && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... /ISSUED AT 339 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014/ NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ASSOCIATE MOISTURE BRINGS PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY INTO N GA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX OR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF N GA WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE FOR FAR N FULTON COUNTY AND NE TO THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS RATHER INCONSISTENT BRINGING MOISTURE ACROSS N GA SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. GFS AND EUROPEAN DIFFERING WITH A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS MUCH FASTER BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THE EUROPEAN BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AT THIS TIME FAVORING THE WPC POP GRID FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA. THIS COULD CHANGE GREATLY WITH OTHER MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME AIRMASS SEEMS TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS ONLY. BDL && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... WINTRY MIX OF PREDOMINATELY FZRA WITH SOME PL/SN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE TAF SITES...THROUGH 12Z WITH PL/SN BECOMING MORE PREDOMINANT AFTER 00Z. PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 10-16Z. GENERALLY IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z AS WELL... IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 12-18Z MOST AREAS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO 8-12KTS BY 00-06Z AND BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO NORTH. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 29 28 40 31 / 100 100 40 0 ATLANTA 33 27 41 34 / 100 100 20 0 BLAIRSVILLE 29 29 39 25 / 100 100 40 5 CARTERSVILLE 33 29 42 30 / 100 100 20 0 COLUMBUS 37 30 48 36 / 100 100 10 0 GAINESVILLE 29 27 41 32 / 100 100 40 0 MACON 33 29 45 32 / 100 100 20 0 ROME 35 29 43 29 / 100 100 20 5 PEACHTREE CITY 34 27 43 30 / 100 100 20 0 VIDALIA 35 31 48 35 / 100 100 20 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CLARKE... CLAYTON...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE... GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JASPER... JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MADISON... MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...NEWTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE... PEACH...PIKE...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING... TALIAFERRO...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON... WARREN...WASHINGTON...WILKES...WILKINSON. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...HARRIS...MACON... MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART... SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...WEBSTER... WHEELER...WILCOX. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA... CHEROKEE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...FANNIN...FLOYD... FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON... JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PICKENS... POLK...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDP/BAKER LONG TERM...BDL AVIATION...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1117 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH CRIPPLING EFFECTS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE... .UPDATE... EARLY MORNING SURGE OF MOISTURE AND DIABATIC EFFECTS FIGHTING THE CAA FROM THE REINFORCED CAD WEDGE RESULTED IN 0.1-0.25 INCHES OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN TIER WITH SOME SLEET OBSERVED BETWEEN. TRENDS HAVE BEEN ON THE LOWER QPF SIDE LIKELY DUE TO AN ENHANCED SLUG OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH GA AND NORTH FL...ALLOWING FOR A MOMENTARY LULL WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP OCCURRING ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHICH HAVE HAD PRIMARILY RAIN. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED PRECIP FILLING BACK IN AND A DECENT BAND OF DEVELOPMENT STARTING BACK BY 21-00Z...AND HAS VERIFIED WELL WITH BREAKS IN THE ACTION SO NOT WANTING TO ADJUST TOTALS TOO MUCH AT THE MOMENT. STILL FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND CURRENTLY DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES MAINLY IN A NW TO SE SWATH FROM NEAR CARROLLTON...THROUGH ATLANTA...THEN WITHIN THE I-20 TO I-16 CORRIDOR. STILL STRONG ISENTROPIC FORCING FORECAST AGAINST THE WEDGE COUPLED WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMIC FORCING. WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE MAIN FORECAST BUT COULD END UP ADJUSTING TOTALS A BIT WITH FRESH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... BAKER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014/ .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... /ISSUED AT 339 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014/ WE ARE WATCHING A WINTER STORM OF HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE BEGINNING TO UNFOLD ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TONIGHT. REPORTS OF SNOW AND SLEET ALREADY COMING IN ACROSS THE METRO AREA AS CAD WEDGE STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH HAS JUST CROSSED THE APPALACHIANS SO THE AGEOSTROPHIC ADJUSTMENT IS KICKING IN...AND CAD SHOULD BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THAT... IT WILL BE A MATTER OF COMPETING EFFECTS OF HORIZONTAL THERMAL ADVECTION /CAA IN SURFACE LAYER AND WAA ALOFT/ WITH LATENT HEAT EFFECTS. IN A NUTSHELL...SNOW FALLING INTO AN ABOVE-FREEZING LAYER WILL COOL THE LAYER FROM LATENT HEAT OF MELTING...AND RAIN FALLING INTO A SUB-FREEZING SURFACE LAYER WILL WARM THE LAYER FROM LATENT HEAT OF FREEZING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH ADVECTION TO COMPENSATE FOR THIS AND AT TIMES EVEN SURPASS THE DIABATIC EFFECTS. NO SURPRISE ON OVERALL SYNOPTIC FIELDS. SURFACE CAD...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND CUTS OFF TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEFORE PUSHING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST AND CAUSING MORE PROBLEMS UP THAT WAY. ECMWF AND GFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT ECMWF REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE. VERY IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC LIFT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WE ARE SOLIDLY IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THINK THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN QPF FIELDS ON NAM/GFS BUT OVERALL SOLUTION IS PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH AROUND 2 INCHES QPF ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH AROUND AN INCH LIQUID ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER. AS THE WEATHER ENTERPRISE HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR DAYS NOW...WE ARE LOOKING AT MAINLY SNOW EXTREME NORTH...SNOW/SLEET/FZRA MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE METRO AREA...WITH MAINLY FZRA ON THE SOUTH SIDE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS IS A STORM OF HISTORICAL PROPORTIONS WITH POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC...CRIPPLING IMPACTS. SNOW RATIOS UP NORTH RUN BETWEEN 6:1 AND 10:1 WHICH LINES UP WITH WITH OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL 8:1. OVERALL A WET SNOW /VERY GOOD FOR SNOWBALLS FOR THE KIDS HOME FOR SCHOOL...AND OF COURSE SOME PARENTS HOME FROM WORK/. IN ADDITION TO WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLING...EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME SLEET FROM GENERALLY ATLANTA TO ATHENS AND POINTS NORTH. A LARGE SWATH OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TOTALS UPWARDS OF A FOOT IN EXTREME NORTHEAST ZONES. AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE SNOWFALL IS...AND MAKE NO MISTAKE THESE ARE SOME IMPRESSIVE TOTALS...IT IS THE ICE THAT WILL HAVE THE CATASTROPHIC IMPACTS. A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ICE. FOR EXAMPLE AT AHN...THE GFS WARM NOSE IS A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE NAM AND WOULD RESULT IN MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE DEPTH OF THE WARM NOSE...AM STILL LEANING TOWARD KEEPING QUITE A BIT OF FZRA IN THAT AREA. SO WITH THAT...ICE TOTALS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OUT BUT THINK THE 1/4 INCH LINE MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MAX TOTALS ALONG THE EAST I-20 CORRIDOR ARE BUMPED UP A LITTLE TO OVER AN INCH. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN CASE IT HASNT BEEN MADE CLEAR ALREADY...THESE ARE CATASTROPHIC AND CRIPPLING TOTALS WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES THAT MAY LAST FOR DAYS. IF RESIDENTS HAVE NOT COMPLETED THEIR PREPARATIONS IT MAY BE TOO LATE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE PRETTY BREEZY...GENERALLY 15-20MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR POSSIBLY 30. ADD THESE WINDS TO THE AMOUNT OF ICE EXPECTED AND THAT WILL JUST EXACERBATE THE POWER LOSS ISSUES. ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WE EXPECT MAINLY RAIN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FZRA RESULTING IN A GLAZE...SO WILL LEAVE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN PLACE. WILL START THE ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLIER JUST TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT GLAZE THIS MORNING. AS IF ALL THAT WASNT ENOUGH...STRENGTH OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT PRETTY IMPRESSIVE...AND WITH THAT THERE IS SOME NEGATIVE SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY ON TOP OF IT. THOSE ARE BIG GEEKY WORDS BUT BASICALLY IT MEANS THERE COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED /SYMMETRIC/ INSTABILITY TO DEAL WITH AND SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED CLAPS OF THUNDER. NOT ENOUGH OF A CONCERN TO ADD TO THE GRIDS BUT IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS THAT COULD EASILY AND QUICKLY CHANGE THE P-TYPE. TRYING TO CATCH HOURLY P-TYPE IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE IN AN EVENT LIKE THIS SO IT IS BEST TO JUST FOCUS ON PREDOMINANT P-TYPE. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS...LAPSE RATES INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES DECREASE ENOUGH TO CHANGE P-TYPE TO ALL SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE. LUCKILY ON THURSDAY THE TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40S ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. I WANT TO ADD A CAVEAT THAT GUIDANCE IS HORRIBLE AT TEMPERATURES WITH SNOWPACK...SO WHERE THE SNOW COVER IS TONIGHT IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT LOW TEMPS MIGHT BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECASTS ARE ADVERTISING /LIKE WHAT HAPPENED A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO/...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY BE KEPT LOWER. WILL REEVALUATE THIS WITH LATER FORECASTS. PRETTY SURE THAT THERE ARE SOME THINGS I HAVENT COVERED HERE BUT HOPEFULLY THIS LIGHT READING MATERIAL IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GET EVERYONES DAY STARTED. THE BOTTOM LINE...AS THE ENTIRE WEATHER ENTERPRISE HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR DAYS NOW... THIS-IS-AN-EVENT-OF-HISTORICAL-PROPORTIONS!! CATASTROPHIC...CRIPPLING...PARALYZING...CHOOSE YOUR ADJECTIVE. THIS IS A VERY VERY BIG DEAL ESPECIALLY FROM METRO ATLANTA EAST ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR...GENERALLY ANYWHERE SOUTH OF I-85 AND NORTH OF I-16 WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ICE TOTALS ARE FORECAST. STAY SAFE OUT THERE! TDP && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... /ISSUED AT 339 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014/ NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ASSOCIATE MOISTURE BRINGS PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY INTO N GA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX OR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF N GA WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE FOR FAR N FULTON COUNTY AND NE TO THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS RATHER INCONSISTENT BRINGING MOISTURE ACROSS N GA SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. GFS AND EUROPEAN DIFFERING WITH A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS MUCH FASTER BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THE EUROPEAN BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AT THIS TIME FAVORING THE WPC POP GRID FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA. THIS COULD CHANGE GREATLY WITH OTHER MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME AIRMASS SEEMS TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS ONLY. BDL && .AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... FZRA WAS FALLING IN ATL AREA ALONG WITH AHN. CSG AND MCN SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO FZRA BY 13/14Z...HOWEVER CSG WILL SWITCH BACK TO RAIN AS THE SURFACE LOW EDGES A LITTLE CLOSER BRINGING IN SOME WARMER AIR. THE FZRA WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST/NORTHEAST UP TO 30KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. IFR/MVFR CLOUDS WILL BECOME ALL IFR AND REMAIN IFR INTO TONIGHT. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS. 17 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 29 28 40 31 / 100 100 40 0 ATLANTA 33 27 41 34 / 100 100 20 0 BLAIRSVILLE 29 29 39 25 / 100 100 40 5 CARTERSVILLE 33 29 42 30 / 100 100 20 0 COLUMBUS 37 30 48 36 / 100 100 10 0 GAINESVILLE 29 27 41 32 / 100 100 40 0 MACON 33 29 45 32 / 100 100 20 0 ROME 35 29 43 29 / 100 100 20 5 PEACHTREE CITY 34 27 43 30 / 100 100 20 0 VIDALIA 35 31 48 35 / 100 100 20 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CLARKE... CLAYTON...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE... GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JASPER... JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MADISON... MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...NEWTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE... PEACH...PIKE...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING... TALIAFERRO...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON... WARREN...WASHINGTON...WILKES...WILKINSON. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...HARRIS...MACON... MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART... SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...WEBSTER... WHEELER...WILCOX. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA... CHEROKEE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...FANNIN...FLOYD... FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON... JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PICKENS... POLK...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDP/BAKER LONG TERM...BDL AVIATION...17 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 919 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 910 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014 The upcoming snow even for late tonight into Friday afternoon still looks on track. The clipper energy for our event is currently moving across south-central South Dakota into NC Nebraska. We may be a little early on the start of snowfall with the advisory starting at midnight, but light snow should be falling for the SW portions of the winter weather advisory areas, W of Springfield. The primary period of time for snow accums still looks to be between 6 am and Noon west of I-57, with snowfall accums continuing until around 3 pm for the advisory areas east of I-57. The compact system will produce a narrow band of 2 to 4" of snow across our southern counties, with a sharp cutoff on the northern and southern edges. The 00Z NAM and 00z HRRR are showing similar solutions to earlier runs, with the higher snow totals primarily in our advisory counties. The 12z Canadian GEM took the system slightly farther south than its previous runs, but decent agreement remains between the latest GFS, NAM, HRRR, and RAP. Temps during the snowfall support snow ratios around 15:1, which works well with expected QPF of 0.15 to 0.20". The evening updates mainly dealt with timing the precip in and out over the next 24 hours. We delayed the categorical pops late tonight by an hour, and lowed pops early Fri afternoon in the west and everywhere after 3 pm. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast appears to be in good shape. Shimon && .AVIATION... ISSUED 600 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014 A cold front will push across our forecast area this evening, bringing a wind shift from southwest to west by 03z and northwest by 06z. Post-frontal winds will increase into the 10-15kt range, with a few gusts to 20kt in a couple of hours behind the front. Cloud cover will generally be minimal until after 06z, when VFR mid-clouds begin arriving ahead of the next shortwave. We expect that next wave to trigger widespread snow showers across our southern terminals of SPI and DEC, with 2 to 4 inches of snow possible later tonight and Friday. IFR vis and ceilings are expected for SPI and DEC during the heavier snows between 15z and 20z, when the bulk of the snow accumulation is expected. MVFR conditions are expected at the other TAF sites during the snow from mid morning into early afternoon. SPI and DEC will see a return to MVFR conditions by mid afternoon. Winds will be northwest in the 08-12kt range during the snowfall, and remain northwest into early evening with an increase in wind speeds to the 12-14kt range. Shimon && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 311 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014 Models look in fairly good agreement with the next two waves coming through the area through the weekend. So, a blend of the models looks like a good forecast at this time, in the short term. In the extended, one system moves into the area for first part of the week. With temps warming, pcpn type will be tricky at onset of the pcpn. Then looks like another system is forecast for later part of the week. Models show some differences on timing of this system, but all models forecasting warmer temps for next week. SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday Another snow event is coming for very late tonight through tomorrow. All models are in good agreement with this system so confidence is high with timing, location and amounts for this event. Models have trended little further north with best area of lift and moisture. Looks like snow will begin in the extreme west after 09z tonight and then overspread the rest of central and southeast Illinois by 15z. Heaviest snow band should setup south of a Macomb to Lincoln to Paris line. With the sfc low tracking from southern MO to western TN tomorrow, looks like should be plenty of moisture for there to be enough accumulating snow to reach advisory criteria by tomorrow afternoon. Does look like most of snow will be tomorrow morning from 6am to noon, with lingering snow still occurring in the east and southeast during the early afternoon. So a winter weather advisory will be issued for already mentioned areas. Snowfall amounts will decrease rapidly to the north. After a brief dry period, Friday night, another minor snow event will track across the north into the Grt Lks region. Highest snowfall amounts, near an inch, will be in the extreme north of the cwa with axis being along and north of I-74. This snow will occur mainly Sat afternoon and Sat evening. Then dry weather should return of Sunday. Temps through the period will remain cold, below normal. LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday Extended period is forecasting a change in the pattern, though it may be temporary. However, another system is forecast to move into the region beginning Sunday night and continuing into Monday. This system will have to overcome a lot of dry air initially so the pcpn could begin as a mix of sleet and freezing rain. The temps will warm up to above freezing early Monday morning, so pcpn will change over to all rain. Pcpn will begin northwest of the IL river Sunday night, before overspreading the rest of the area as just rain on Monday. Pcpn could end as a mix of rain and snow, but this is not worth mentioning at this time. The next weather system will be Wed through Thur and based on the warmer temps, this pcpn will be all rain. Cloudy, windy and foggy conditions are also possible as there will have been several days of temps above freezing and we have a lot of snow to melt over most of the area. Initial looks at this system show that thunderstorms are possible, but with models disagreeing and system 7 days out, it is too soon add thunderstorms at this time. Definite warming trend in store for next week. Daytime temps will warm to above freezing, however, overnight lows will still fall back to below freezing over portions of the area Mon night and Tue night. Lows Wed night will be above freezing. Auten && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Friday FOR ILZ040-047>057- 061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
936 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 936 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014 Added a small chance of rain or sleet to the eastern 2/3rds of the CWA after 08Z. RAP/HRRR and NAM develop precipitation ahead of an approaching PV anomaly. Lapse rates steepen and isentropic lift increases after 08Z. However dry air in low levels will likely keep the precipitation on the light side. Looking at soundings from RAP and NAM would suggest rain or sleet will be possible. Again amounts will be on the light side if any. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 249 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014 Clear skies have allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 40s to low 50s across the area today. Snow cover has prevented any further warming although there has been some melting, and this may add extra moisture into the boundary layer supporting the develop of haze, especially after sunset under the clear skies. Although the period of clear skies will be brief as mid level clouds are forecast to move into the area shortly before midnight ahead of the approaching system therefore do not expect widespread fog. This should keep the temperatures from rapidly dropping overnight, and could lead to warmer low temperatures, which are forecast to be in the upper 20s to near 30. A front currently passing through the Midwest has forced a baroclinic zone southward into NE, and eventually far northeast KS. As the mid level shortwave passes over the region overnight and tomorrow morning it will drive a surface low pressure directly over the forecast area along the baroclinic zone. There is a slight chance that far northeast KS could see flurries as the lift increases mainly before sunrise. Forecast soundings are showing a rather deep layer of dry air roughly 950 to 750 mb that may prevent any precipitation as the lift quickly advances eastward before saturation occurs. Behind the departing system a strong northwesterly low level jet passes over the region. Cold air advection and daytime heating will promote steep low level lapse rates resulting in deep mixing. The stronger winds should mix down during the day tomorrow, and increasing subsidence could enhance any downward momentum transfer. Northwest winds increase to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph especially in north central KS. Temperatures will be somewhat tricky tomorrow as a secondary surge of cold air is forecast to move in during the afternoon. This will keep high temperatures in the mid 30s in far northeast KS and in the mid 40s in central KS, and possibly colder depending on the timing. Could see partly cloudy skies linger through the afternoon before drier air pushes in from the northwest. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 249 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014 Fri night-Sunday...Surface high pressure slides over the forecast area Friday evening but moves quickly east, and could make for tricky lows Friday night, as western counties may climb later in the night as southerly winds as well as clouds return. Have teens NE to low 20s SW but forecast may be on the cool side. Appears to be enough wind to not make fog a big concern at this time despite boost to moisture in the boundary layer from melting snow. The next shortwave trof drops through the WNW flow aloft across Iowa and into Illinois on Saturday. Winds in the mid levels near 50kts mid morning and will likely aid in mixing the boundary layer quickly as well as increasing winds and gusts for a time from morning into mid afternoon. Highs 40s NE to 50s SW. Following surface high Sunday night has center more over Eastern Kansas but temperatures not as cold, and will keep lows in the 20s near 30 for most of the area. Retreating high and increasing southerly winds across the high plains will once again bring warmer highs in the middle 50s west with cooler temperatures in the 40s in the far northeast. Warm air advection continues overnight Sunday into Monday and will only drop lows into the 30s. Mon-Thurs...Next wave on approach for Monday and associated low slides through in the morning hours. Once again the airmass coming in behind this wave not as cold and should be able to reach middle 50s for many locations through the southwest counties. Could see some showers from WAA and passing wave across the east and southeast. GFS and EC differ on how far south to track the next shortwave, but both keep the colder air north and will carry highs in the middle to upper 50s for Tuesday, with upper 50s low 60s possible by Wednesday. Long range models differ on strength of the upper jet and southern extent of energy moving across the plains, with EC deepening a wrn trof while GFS remains weaker and progressive. Kept guidance with highs in the 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 539 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014 Expect VFR conditions to continue through 12Z with MVFR cigs developing after 12Z mainly at TOP and FOE terminals. Winds southwest less than 10 KTS will shift to the northwest at 13 kts around 12Z then increase by 16Z to 17 kts with gusts to 26 kts. MVFR cigs expected to become VFR after 21Z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...53 SHORT TERM...Sanders LONG TERM...67 AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
259 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2014 ...Updated long term section... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 207 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014 A weak cold front/surface boundary will drop south across Nebraska overnight as an upper level trough crosses the Rockies and moves out into the northern plains. NAM and GFS indicated an increase in cloud cover will precede this upper level disturbance so given the increase in cloud cover and a southwest wind at 10 to 15 mph will continue to favor the previous forecast with lows overnight mainly in the teens for western Kansas. The cooler temperatures will be where the heavier snowfall fell Monday night. There will also be a chance for some freezing fog overnight based on the south/slightly southeast wind direction during the first half of the night along with mostly clear skies. HRRR also was suggesting a period of reduced visibilities across south central and portions of western Kansas until the winds begin to veer more to the west after midnight. At this time dense fog is not anticipated. Morning clouds will give way to mostly sunny conditions on Wednesday as the upper level disturbance moves into the Mid Mississippi Valley. The weak cold front/surface boundary will briefly move into the western Kansas early in the day. Despite the frontal passage the 925mb to 850mb temperatures at 00z Thursday will be 2c to 4c warmer when compared to temperatures at 00z Wednesday. Using this as a guide for highs and taking into account snow cover across much of western Kansas the afternoon temperatures are expected to range from the mid 30s to upper 40s. The upper 40s will be mainly confined to extreme southwest Kansas where there is little to no cover. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 257 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 The extended period will consist of an upper level ridge building across the western United States for the remainder of the week shifting eastward across the Rockies and Plains this weekend. A few embedded shortwave troughs will move through this flow helping push a few weak surface cold fronts through western Kansas. The main problem with the temperature forecast is the effect of snow cover. Melting will be a slow process, especially since ground temperatures are below freezing. Nevertheless, temperatures are expected to generally reach into the 60s by Saturday. The warming trend will then be interrupted by a pacific cold front that will knock highs into the 50s by Sunday and Monday. Temperatures then warm back up into the 60s on Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014 VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. South to southwest winds at the beginning of the period will switch to the northwest to north between 09z-12z as a weak cold front moves through central and southwest Kansas. Winds could be gusty to 20-25 knots behind the front during the morning hours but winds should decrease and become more westerly by afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 35 21 43 30 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 37 22 46 29 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 49 30 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 42 23 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 35 20 45 30 / 0 0 0 0 P28 36 20 45 30 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Hovorka_42 AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1046 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 150 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014 AS OF 2 PM CST...1 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MORNING STRATUS LINGERING AND MOUNTAIN WAVE CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM COLORADO. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO THE LOW 40S OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. A LEE TROUGH WAS STRENGTHENING OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ARE THE TIMING OF THE LEE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM MELTING SNOW...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT FREEZING FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHEN THE LEE TROUGH MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE FOG BY MIXING IN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE HRRR...NAM AND LAMP GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...BUT FOR VARYING LOCATIONS. SIDED WITH THE HRRR ON FOG CHANCES AS THE LOCATIONS MORE ACCURATELY REFLECTED THE ANTICIPATED SCENARIO. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS SETTLE DOWN BEHIND THE LEE TROUGH BUT WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE TIME TO WATCH CLOSELY WILL BE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. THESE CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HAIGLER NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY KANSAS. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOR TOMORROW...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. AS WITH TODAY...IT WAS HARD TO PINPOINT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH THE SNOW FIELD REMAINING BUT WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES. BASICALLY TOOK A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH A ONE DEGREE NUDGE UP FOR TOMORROW. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDINESS ANTICIPATED. THIS COULD LIMIT WARMING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON MAY HELP OVERCOME SOME OF THE INCOMING CLOUDINESS. FARTHER EAST...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON WARMING AS THEY WILL HAVE PASSED OVER MANY MILES OF SNOW COVER. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014 THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY MUNDANE IN REGARD TO PRECIP. CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. THE MORE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE NAILING DOWN TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS SEVERAL FRONTS MOVE THROUGH IN ADDITION TO ESTIMATING HOW MUCH SNOW PACK WILL BE LEFT TO AFFECT TEMPERATES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY THREE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ACCOMPANYING EACH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WILL BE A COLD FRONT. BEHIND EACH SHORT WAVE TROUGH A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...AND HELPING TO NEGATE THE EFFECTS OF THE BRIEF SPELL OF COOLER AIR. AFTER MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014 CONDITIONS AT MCK AND GLD WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING BREEZY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH BETWEEN 06Z-08Z. WINDS WILL SLACKEN BY MORNING AND TURN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 22Z AS ANOTHER THROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRH LONG TERM...JTL AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1139 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2014 ...Updated aviation discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 207 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014 A weak cold front/surface boundary will drop south across Nebraska overnight as an upper level trough crosses the Rockies and moves out into the northern plains. NAM and GFS indicated an increase in cloud cover will precede this upper level disturbance so given the increase in cloud cover and a southwest wind at 10 to 15 mph will continue to favor the previous forecast with lows overnight mainly in the teens for western Kansas. The cooler temperatures will be where the heavier snowfall fell Monday night. There will also be a chance for some freezing fog overnight based on the south/slightly southeast wind direction during the first half of the night along with mostly clear skies. HRRR also was suggesting a period of reduced visibilities across south central and portions of western Kansas until the winds begin to veer more to the west after midnight. At this time dense fog is not anticipated. Morning clouds will give way to mostly sunny conditions on Wednesday as the upper level disturbance moves into the Mid Mississippi Valley. The weak cold front/surface boundary will briefly move into the western Kansas early in the day. Despite the frontal passage the 925mb to 850mb temperatures at 00z Thursday will be 2c to 4c warmer when compared to temperatures at 00z Wednesday. Using this as a guide for highs and taking into account snow cover across much of western Kansas the afternoon temperatures are expected to range from the mid 30s to upper 40s. The upper 40s will be mainly confined to extreme southwest Kansas where there is little to no cover. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 349 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014 The mid to high level flow will remain fairly zonal through the extended period, with embedded shortwave troughs bringing periodic weak cold fronts through western Kansas. The main problem with the temperature forecast is the effect of snow cover. Melting will be a slow process, especially since ground temperatures are below freezing. The warming trend will be interrupted by a pacific cold front that will knock highs in the 60s Saturday into the 50s by Sunday and Monday. The models indicate low amplitude but deep upper troughing off of the west coast by Feb 18-19th. This pattern would result in broad west-southwest mid to high level flow regime across the high plains, with lee troughing and very mild temperatures. Highs could reach well into the 60s and 70s by February 18th. The models are advertising a deep upper level trough in the western United States by Feb 20th, with strong lee troughing by Feb 19th-20th. Highs will be in the 70s south of a frontal boundary over the southern plains and probably extending into southern Kansas, with cooler 60s across the central Plains. Persistent low level flow from the Gulf of Mexico will result in 55-60F dewpoints into the southern plains by Feb 19-20th. Eventually as the upper level trough approaches the plains by the Feb 21st-23rd time frame, thunderstorms could develop. Unless the system closes off and moves very slowly, climatology suggests that the moist axis will be over eastern Kansas, with drier air further west. However, recall that an upper level trough and moisture return on February 23, 2007 resulted in severe weather, including F1 tornadoes in Ford and Meade counties and 1 inch hail in Seward county. But severe weather in February is exceedingly rare across western Kansas. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014 VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. South to southwest winds at the beginning of the period will switch to the northwest to north between 09z-12z as a weak cold front moves through central and southwest Kansas. Winds could be gusty to 20-25 knots behind the front during the morning hours but winds should decrease and become more westerly by afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 15 35 23 43 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 16 36 24 46 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 23 50 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 17 42 25 57 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 17 34 24 45 / 0 0 0 0 P28 10 35 22 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Finch AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
948 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 948 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 RADAR HAS RETURNS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AT MID MORNING...BUT IT IS IN THE FORM OF VIRGA. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN LINE WITH MODEL FORECASTS SHOWING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR PERSISTING A WHILE LONGER. NEW 12Z NAM HAS SHOWN UP WITH SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIP THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT STILL SUPPORTING MAINTAINING CURRENT HEADLINES. WILL WAIT TO EVALUATE THE 12Z GFS ONCE IT ARRIVES BEFORE MAKING CHANGES TO THE PRECIP FORECAST. OTHERWISE...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES BASED ON MORNING CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS INTO THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. LOOKING AT THE 06Z RUNS AND LATEST HRRR IT APPEARS THE FORECAST FOR HEAVY SNOW IS ON TRACK FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADJUST TOWARD THE ECMWF AND AS SUCH ARE HOLDING IN THE SNOW A BIT LONGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE STORM ALSO SHOWS SIGNS OF RUNNING A BIT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A SECONDARY SURGE SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST GFS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AND SEE IF IT THE GFS IS ON TO SOMETHING OR JUST AN OFF RUN QUIRK. THE HRRR WOULD PUT ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z...JUST A BIT DELAYED FROM OUR TIMING GRAPHIC...BUT THERE ARE ALSO SOME DECENT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN TENNESSEE ATTM. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS IS PUSHING UP AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BENEATH A DOME OF VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION. ON SATELLITE...A BAROCLINIC LEAF HAS ALREADY TAKEN SHAPE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THIS HAS SPREAD SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO EAST KENTUCKY. THE THIN CLOUD COVER IN MOST PLACES IS NOT HINDERING THE DROP OFF IN TEMPS THIS NIGHT... PARTICULARLY NORTH WHERE READINGS ARE APPROACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS. TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS ARE A BIT MILDER WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. RIGHT ALONG THE TRI-BORDER AREA WITH TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 20S. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN AIR TEMPERATURE IN MOST LOCATIONS...RUNNING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS IN THE FAR SOUTH. THIS INDICATES THAT IT WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND FOR PCPN TO REACH THE GROUND. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE PRETTY MUCH LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT TO START THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT THEY START TO VARY LATER TODAY WITH THE ALL TOO CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THIS AS ITS LOW REMAINS OPEN. THE LATEST ECMWF HOLDS TO ITS CONTINUITY AS THE STRONGEST MODEL THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. GIVEN THE GOOD CONTINUITY...AND MODEL TRENDS...HAVE USED A BLEND THAT FAVORS THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME DETAILS FROM THE NAM12...ENHANCED AND TRANSLATED NORTHWESTWARD. THE DEVELOPING LOW SWINGS THROUGH WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY AT MID LEVELS...SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER EAST KENTUCKY...AND A DEPARTING DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE AT 300MB...LATE THIS EVENING. THESE ALL WILL WORK TO ENHANCE THIS WAVE AND DRIVE THE EVOLVING WINTER STORM. THE LOW AND TROUGH LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE MODELS HOLDING TO THEIR DIFFERENCES. ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY THIS RESULTS IN A RELAXING OF THE LOW HEIGHTS AND A TEMPORARY DEAMPLIFICATION. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE MAJOR WINTER STORM LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. THIS WILL SWEEP A COMMA HEAD OF PCPN OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA STARTING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAXIMIZING ITS EXTENT...BOTH AERIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW FALL RATES...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5 AM. EXPECT THE WESTERN BOUNDARY TO REACH TOWARD THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BUT THE BULK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR CWA. THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PCPN AS ALL SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA THAT DOES SEE PCPN. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY CUTTING INTO SNOW TOTALS FOR THIS AREA AND LIKELY KEEPING THEM IN ADVISORY CATEGORY SNOWS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE SNOW TOTALS WITH THE BEST MODEL BLEND SOLUTION KEEPING ANYTHING MORE THAN 4 INCHES IN THE FAR EAST ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE HIGHER RIDGES NEAR THE BORDER COULD ACTUALLY PICK UP SIX OR MORE INCHES BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST THE TOTALS WILL FALL OFF QUICK WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED...TAPERING TO LESS THAN AN INCH BY THE SECOND TIER OF COUNTIES AWAY FROM VA. THE WSWS HAVE BEEN SET UP WITH THIS IN MIND...BUT THERE IS THE CAVEAT THAT IF THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING MOST CORRECT THE AMOUNTS WOULD END UP MORE TO THE NORTHWEST BY ABOUT 20 OR 40 MILES...WITH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO A FOOT IN THE HIGHEST PARTS OF HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SHOWERS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY FROM WEST TO EAST ALLOWING FOR EVEN SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE NEW SNOW AND LIMITED CAA IN THE STORM/S WAKE WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY. USED A MODIFIED COOLER VERSION OF THE CONSSHORT FOR TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACCOUNTING FOR THE WETBULBING WITH THE SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...THE BCCONSSHORT WAS USED FOR TD AND WINDS BEFORE A HAND OFF TO THE BCCONSALL. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE HIGHER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE FORECAST. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE BACK EDGE OF THE POTENT SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE UPPER AIR...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS A VERY GOOD SET UP FOR CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS AND SURE ENOUGH...THE FIRST CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THERE WILL BE MIXED BAG OF RAIN AND SNOW THAT WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY EVENING...THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE MODELS HOLD TOGETHER...THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A LOW END ADVISORY. WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STAYING IN PLACE ANOTHER FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS. THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS REALLY START TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE MODELS AND THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES...FAVOR A FASTER SYSTEM WITH CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF PREFERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS AN EFFORT TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN...HOWEVER WANTED TO SLOW IT DOWN EVEN MORE...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO SHOW TOO LARGE A DIFFERENCE WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THERE IS A GRADUAL WARMING SO THE SUBSEQUENT CLIPPERS WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME TO PRODUCE MUCH SNOW EXCEPT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH SNOW FROM THE LAST TWO CLIPPERS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 650 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH MVFR CIG AND VIS CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR A TIME INTO THE NIGHT IN MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF THE BLUEGRASS AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOUND AT SJS WHERE THE SNOW WILL BE A TAD MORE SUBSTANTIAL. IFR OR EVEN SOME LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE SHOULD THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WORK FAR ENOUGH WEST...HAVE ADDED A BEEFIER TEMPO FOR THIS WITH THIS UPDATE. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY LATE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ087-088-118- 120. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ084>086- 110-113-115>117-119. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
715 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 715 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS INTO THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. LOOKING AT THE 06Z RUNS AND LATEST HRRR IT APPEARS THE FORECAST FOR HEAVY SNOW IS ON TRACK FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADJUST TOWARD THE ECMWF AND AS SUCH ARE HOLDING IN THE SNOW A BIT LONGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE STORM ALSO SHOWS SIGNS OF RUNNING A BIT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A SECONDARY SURGE SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST GFS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AND SEE IF IT THE GFS IS ON TO SOMETHING OR JUST AN OFF RUN QUIRK. THE HRRR WOULD PUT ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z...JUST A BIT DELAYED FROM OUR TIMING GRAPHIC...BUT THERE ARE ALSO SOME DECENT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN TENNESSEE ATTM. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS IS PUSHING UP AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BENEATH A DOME OF VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION. ON SATELLITE...A BAROCLINIC LEAF HAS ALREADY TAKEN SHAPE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THIS HAS SPREAD SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO EAST KENTUCKY. THE THIN CLOUD COVER IN MOST PLACES IS NOT HINDERING THE DROP OFF IN TEMPS THIS NIGHT... PARTICULARLY NORTH WHERE READINGS ARE APPROACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS. TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS ARE A BIT MILDER WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. RIGHT ALONG THE TRI-BORDER AREA WITH TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 20S. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN AIR TEMPERATURE IN MOST LOCATIONS...RUNNING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS IN THE FAR SOUTH. THIS INDICATES THAT IT WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND FOR PCPN TO REACH THE GROUND. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE PRETTY MUCH LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT TO START THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT THEY START TO VARY LATER TODAY WITH THE ALL TOO CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THIS AS ITS LOW REMAINS OPEN. THE LATEST ECMWF HOLDS TO ITS CONTINUITY AS THE STRONGEST MODEL THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. GIVEN THE GOOD CONTINUITY...AND MODEL TRENDS...HAVE USED A BLEND THAT FAVORS THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME DETAILS FROM THE NAM12...ENHANCED AND TRANSLATED NORTHWESTWARD. THE DEVELOPING LOW SWINGS THROUGH WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY AT MID LEVELS...SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER EAST KENTUCKY...AND A DEPARTING DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE AT 300MB...LATE THIS EVENING. THESE ALL WILL WORK TO ENHANCE THIS WAVE AND DRIVE THE EVOLVING WINTER STORM. THE LOW AND TROUGH LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE MODELS HOLDING TO THEIR DIFFERENCES. ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY THIS RESULTS IN A RELAXING OF THE LOW HEIGHTS AND A TEMPORARY DEAMPLIFICATION. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE MAJOR WINTER STORM LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. THIS WILL SWEEP A COMMA HEAD OF PCPN OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA STARTING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAXIMIZING ITS EXTENT...BOTH AERIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW FALL RATES...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5 AM. EXPECT THE WESTERN BOUNDARY TO REACH TOWARD THE BLUEGRASS REGION...BUT THE BULK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OUR CWA. THE COLD AIR IN PLACE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PCPN AS ALL SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA THAT DOES SEE PCPN. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY CUTTING INTO SNOW TOTALS FOR THIS AREA AND LIKELY KEEPING THEM IN ADVISORY CATEGORY SNOWS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE SNOW TOTALS WITH THE BEST MODEL BLEND SOLUTION KEEPING ANYTHING MORE THAN 4 INCHES IN THE FAR EAST ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE HIGHER RIDGES NEAR THE BORDER COULD ACTUALLY PICK UP SIX OR MORE INCHES BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST THE TOTALS WILL FALL OFF QUICK WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED...TAPERING TO LESS THAN AN INCH BY THE SECOND TIER OF COUNTIES AWAY FROM VA. THE WSWS HAVE BEEN SET UP WITH THIS IN MIND...BUT THERE IS THE CAVEAT THAT IF THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING MOST CORRECT THE AMOUNTS WOULD END UP MORE TO THE NORTHWEST BY ABOUT 20 OR 40 MILES...WITH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO A FOOT IN THE HIGHEST PARTS OF HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SHOWERS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY FROM WEST TO EAST ALLOWING FOR EVEN SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE NEW SNOW AND LIMITED CAA IN THE STORM/S WAKE WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY. USED A MODIFIED COOLER VERSION OF THE CONSSHORT FOR TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACCOUNTING FOR THE WETBULBING WITH THE SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...THE BCCONSSHORT WAS USED FOR TD AND WINDS BEFORE A HAND OFF TO THE BCCONSALL. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE HIGHER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE FORECAST. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE BACK EDGE OF THE POTENT SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE UPPER AIR...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS A VERY GOOD SET UP FOR CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS AND SURE ENOUGH...THE FIRST CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THERE WILL BE MIXED BAG OF RAIN AND SNOW THAT WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY EVENING...THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE MODELS HOLD TOGETHER...THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A LOW END ADVISORY. WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STAYING IN PLACE ANOTHER FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS. THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS REALLY START TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE MODELS AND THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES...FAVOR A FASTER SYSTEM WITH CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF PREFERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS AN EFFORT TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN...HOWEVER WANTED TO SLOW IT DOWN EVEN MORE...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO SHOW TOO LARGE A DIFFERENCE WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THERE IS A GRADUAL WARMING SO THE SUBSEQUENT CLIPPERS WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME TO PRODUCE MUCH SNOW EXCEPT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH SNOW FROM THE LAST TWO CLIPPERS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 650 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH MVFR CIG AND VIS CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR A TIME INTO THE NIGHT IN MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF THE BLUEGRASS AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOUND AT SJS WHERE THE SNOW WILL BE A TAD MORE SUBSTANTIAL. IFR OR EVEN SOME LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE SHOULD THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WORK FAR ENOUGH WEST...HAVE ADDED A BEEFIER TEMPO FOR THIS WITH THIS UPDATE. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY LATE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ087-088-118-120. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ084>086-110-113-115>117-119. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1130 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND PASS NEAR CAPE COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK LOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... 1130AM UPDATE... DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING LOWER THAN FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE. 830AM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TREND FROM LATEST OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. A COLD START THIS MORNING MAY BE SLOW TO WARM UP AT FIRST. BUT EVENTUALLY 20S WILL BE WIDESPREAD. 630AM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 11Z. CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS. A FRESH SNOWPACK...THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE TO WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AND DEW POINTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ADJUSTED THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE RECREATIONAL FORECAST FOR IMPROVED SKY CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... VERY QUIET IN THE NEAR TERM WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. READINGS FELL TO 20 BELOW OVER THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WITH OUR VERY DRY AIRMASS AND FRESH SNOW COVER. EXPECT READING TO REBOUND QUICKLY TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE PORTLAND AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE SLOWLY EASING OFF THE COASTLINE. RELIED HEAVILY ON THE NAM12 FOR WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/... CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STRENGTHENING STORM HEADING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WESTWARD TREND OF THE TRACK CONTINUES WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. INITIALLY...THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AFTER SOME INITIALLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE COLUMN EARLY. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT MAY ALLOW A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR TO REACH THE COASTLINE...BRINGING SLEET AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...A DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO EASE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS FOR A PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF THE EURO/GFS FOR QPF. RAN THE WIND EFFECTS TOOL TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOWFALL MAX WILL MOST LIKELY END UP OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COMPLEX COASTAL LOW WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A FIRST SHOT OF HEAVY WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL INTO THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE DEEPENING CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY... ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD CHANGEOVER THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO A MIX OF SLEET AT TIMES OVER COASTAL AND SOME ADJACENT INLAND AREAS AND WILL PUT A LIMIT ON SNOWFALL TOTALS. OVERALL PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION FOR THIS EVENT. ALL MODELS AGREE ON OVER 1.0+ OF QPF WITH SOME APPROACHING CLOSER TO 2.0 INCHES OF QPF. THE HEAVIEST QPF IS ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT AND BEST ENHANCEMENT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PRECIPITATION TYPE STAYING ALL SNOW AND HIGHER RATIOS HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT AND CONSIDERING ITS LATE 3RD AND INTO 4TH PERIODS OF OUR FORECAST WE HAVE OPTED KEEP THE WATCH IN EFFECT. THE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER AND EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THRU ON SATURDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND MAY BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AND LIFR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN HEAVY SNOW. THERE WILL BE SOME MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN BECOMING VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE MVFR OR IFR ON SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. VFR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO A GALE. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE. LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE THE LOW PASSES THRU THE GULF OF MAINE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 15 FT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW EXITS QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ018-019-023-024. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-020>022-025>028. NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NHZ003>010-013-014. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NHZ001-002. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
829 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND PASS NEAR CAPE COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK LOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... 830AM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TREND FROM LATEST OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. A COLD START THIS MORNING MAY BE SLOW TO WARM UP AT FIRST. BUT EVENTUALLY 20S WILL BE WIDESPREAD. 630AM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 11Z. CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS. A FRESH SNOWPACK...THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE TO WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AND DEW POINTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ADJUSTED THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE RECREATIONAL FORECAST FOR IMPROVED SKY CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... VERY QUIET IN THE NEAR TERM WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. READINGS FELL TO 20 BELOW OVER THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WITH OUR VERY DRY AIRMASS AND FRESH SNOW COVER. EXPECT READING TO REBOUND QUICKLY TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE PORTLAND AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE SLOWLY EASING OFF THE COASTLINE. RELIED HEAVILY ON THE NAM12 FOR WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/... CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STRENGTHENING STORM HEADING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WESTWARD TREND OF THE TRACK CONTINUES WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. INITIALLY...THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AFTER SOME INITIALLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE COLUMN EARLY. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT MAY ALLOW A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR TO REACH THE COASTLINE...BRINGING SLEET AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...A DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO EASE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS FOR A PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF THE EURO/GFS FOR QPF. RAN THE WIND EFFECTS TOOL TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOWFALL MAX WILL MOST LIKELY END UP OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COMPLEX COASTAL LOW WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A FIRST SHOT OF HEAVY WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL INTO THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE DEEPENING CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY... ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD CHANGEOVER THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO A MIX OF SLEET AT TIMES OVER COASTAL AND SOME ADJACENT INLAND AREAS AND WILL PUT A LIMIT ON SNOWFALL TOTALS. OVERALL PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION FOR THIS EVENT. ALL MODELS AGREE ON OVER 1.0+ OF QPF WITH SOME APPROACHING CLOSER TO 2.0 INCHES OF QPF. THE HEAVIEST QPF IS ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT AND BEST ENHANCEMENT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PRECIPITATION TYPE STAYING ALL SNOW AND HIGHER RATIOS HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT AND CONSIDERING ITS LATE 3RD AND INTO 4TH PERIODS OF OUR FORECAST WE HAVE OPTED KEEP THE WATCH IN EFFECT. THE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER AND EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THRU ON SATURDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND MAY BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AND LIFR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN HEAVY SNOW. THERE WILL BE SOME MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN BECOMING VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE MVFR OR IFR ON SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. VFR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO A GALE. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE. LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE THE LOW PASSES THRU THE GULF OF MAINE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 15 FT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW EXITS QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ018-019-023-024. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-020>022-025>028. NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NHZ003>010-013-014. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NHZ001-002. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
636 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND PASS NEAR CAPE COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK LOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 11Z. CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS. A FRESH SNOWPACK...THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE TO WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AND DEW POINTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ADJUSTED THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE RECREATIONAL FORECAST FOR IMPROVED SKY CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. PREV DISC... VERY QUIET IN THE NEAR TERM WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. READINGS FELL TO 20 BELOW OVER THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WITH OUR VERY DRY AIRMASS AND FRESH SNOW COVER. EXPECT READING TO REBOUND QUICKLY TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE PORTLAND AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE SLOWLY EASING OFF THE COASTLINE. RELIED HEAVILY ON THE NAM12 FOR WINDS AND TEMPS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STRENGTHENING STORM HEADING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WESTWARD TREND OF THE TRACK CONTINUES WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. INITIALLY...THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AFTER SOME INITIALLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE COLUMN EARLY. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT MAY ALLOW A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR TO REACH THE COASTLINE...BRINGING SLEET AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...A DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE PRECIP TO EASE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS FOR A PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF THE EURO/GFS FOR QPF. RAN THE WIND EFFECTS TOOL TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOWFALL MAX WILL MOST LIKELY END UP OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COMPLEX COASTAL LOW WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT FCST THU NIGHT INTO FRI MRNG. ALL MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A FIRST SHOT OF HEAVY WAA SNWOWFALL INTO THE REGION THU EVENG. AS THE DEEPENING CENTER OF LOW PRES APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU THE GULF OF MAINE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...ENOUGH WAA IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD CHANGEOVER THE PTYPE TO A MIX OF SLEET AT TIMES OVER COASTAL AND SOME ADJACENT INLAND AREAS AND WILL PUT A LIMIT ON SNOWFALL TOTALS. OVERALL PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION FOR THIS EVENT. ALL MODELS AGREE ON OVER 1.0+ OF QPF WITH SOME APPROACHING CLOSER TO 2.0 INCHES OF QPF. THE HVIEST QPF IS ALG THE COASTAL FNT AND BEST ENHANCEMENT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. BUT DUE TO ORGRAPHIC LIFT AND PTYPE STAYING ALL SNOW AND HIGHER RATIOS HIGHER ACCUMS ARE PSBL IN THE MTNS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT AND CONSIDERING ITS LATE 3RD AND INTO 4TH PDS OF OUR FCST WE HAVE OPTED KEEP THE WATCH IN EFFECT. THE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER AND EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER UPPER TROF MOVES THRU ON SAT WITH SOME SCT SNW SHWRS EXPECTED WITH SOME LGT ACCUMS PSBL IN THE MTNS. A SFC/UPR RDG SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR SUN AND MON WITH TEMPS REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUES AND MAY BRING WARMER TEMPS AND A MIXED BAG OF PCPN. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AND LIFR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN HEAVY SNOW. THERE WILL BE SOME MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...LIFR CONDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING THEN BECOMING VFR BY FRI AFTN. POSSIBLE MVFR OR IFR ON SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. VFR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO MON. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO A GALE. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE. LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS PSBL THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS THE THE LOW PASSES THRU THE GULF OF MAINE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 15 FT AND PSBLY HIGHER BY FRI MRNG. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW EXITS QUICKLY FRI AFTN WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ018-019-023-024. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-020>022-025>028. NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NHZ003>010-013-014. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NHZ001-002. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
448 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND PASS NEAR CAPE COD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK LOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... VERY QUIET IN THE NEAR TERM WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. READINGS FELL TO 20 BELOW OVER THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WITH OUR VERY DRY AIRMASS AND FRESH SNOW COVER. EXPECT READING TO REBOUND QUICKLY TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE PORTLAND AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE SLOWLY EASING OFF THE COASTLINE. RELIED HEAVILY ON THE NAM12 FOR WINDS AND TEMPS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STRENGTHENING STORM HEADING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WESTWARD TREND OF THE TRACK CONTINUES WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. INITIALLY...THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AFTER SOME INITIALLY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE COLUMN EARLY. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT MAY ALLOW A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR TO REACH THE COASTLINE...BRINGING SLEET AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...A DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE PRECIP TO EASE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS FOR A PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF THE EURO/GFS FOR QPF. RAN THE WIND EFFECTS TOOL TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE SNOWFALL MAX WILL MOST LIKELY END UP OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COMPLEX COASTAL LOW WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT FCST THU NIGHT INTO FRI MRNG. ALL MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A FIRST SHOT OF HEAVY WAA SNWOWFALL INTO THE REGION THU EVENG. AS THE DEEPENING CENTER OF LOW PRES APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU THE GULF OF MAINE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...ENOUGH WAA IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD CHANGEOVER THE PTYPE TO A MIX OF SLEET AT TIMES OVER COASTAL AND SOME ADJACENT INLAND AREAS AND WILL PUT A LIMIT ON SNOWFALL TOTALS. OVERALL PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION FOR THIS EVENT. ALL MODELS AGREE ON OVER 1.0+ OF QPF WITH SOME APPROACHING CLOSER TO 2.0 INCHES OF QPF. THE HVIEST QPF IS ALG THE COASTAL FNT AND BEST ENHANCEMENT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. BUT DUE TO ORGRAPHIC LIFT AND PTYPE STAYING ALL SNOW AND HIGHER RATIOS HIGHER ACCUMS ARE PSBL IN THE MTNS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT AND CONSIDERING ITS LATE 3RD AND INTO 4TH PDS OF OUR FCST WE HAVE OPTED KEEP THE WATCH IN EFFECT. THE SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER AND EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER UPPER TROF MOVES THRU ON SAT WITH SOME SCT SNW SHWRS EXPECTED WITH SOME LGT ACCUMS PSBL IN THE MTNS. A SFC/UPR RDG SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR SUN AND MON WITH TEMPS REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUES AND MAY BRING WARMER TEMPS AND A MIXED BAG OF PCPN. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AND LIFR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN HEAVY SNOW. THERE WILL BE SOME MIX OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...LIFR CONDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING THEN BECOMING VFR BY FRI AFTN. POSSIBLE MVFR OR IFR ON SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. VFR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO MON. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO A GALE. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE. LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS PSBL THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS THE THE LOW PASSES THRU THE GULF OF MAINE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 15 FT AND PSBLY HIGHER BY FRI MRNG. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW EXITS QUICKLY FRI AFTN WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ018-019-023-024. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-020>022-025>028. NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NHZ003>010-013-014. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NHZ001-002. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1007 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY EXCEPT WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE BAND OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION THAT HAS ALLOWED LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN ZONES IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO EDGE EAST OF THE AREA. A BRIEF AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WITH FAIRLY GOOD COLUMN DRYING FOLLOWS IT...WHICH SEEMS TO BE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP OFF INTO THE LOWER 20S IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING BAND OF SNOW OWING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALSO ENTERING THE AREA AT THE MOMENT IS A BAND OF WHAT SEEMS TO BE LARGELY VIRGA OVER CENTRAL OHIO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FAIL TO INDICATE ANY SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION UNTIL YOU GET WELL NORTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...AND LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...A DECENT LAYER OF DRY AIR IS LIKELY INHIBITING THE PRECIPITATION RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ECHOES FROM REACHING THE GROUND. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE INCOMING BAND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW FORCING IT TRAVERSES LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD LAKE ERIE. AS THIS OCCURS...MID-LEVEL COOLING AS WELL AS DEEPER LAYER DIFFERENTIAL PVA START TO AFFECT ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT TOWARD MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BREAK OUT ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...BEFORE WE GET TO THE POINT WHERE THE MID-LEVELS START TO COOL...A PERIOD WITH DECENT DRYING IN THE MID- LEVELS IS LIKELY BEHIND THIS BAND OF VIRGA. THAT SAID...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY THAT PRECIPITATION IS BEING GENERATED. AT THE MOMENT...NAM AND RUC SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THE PRECIPITATION TO BE POORLY FORMED SNOW GRAINS/SNOW. GFS PROFILES SUGGEST SOMETHING MORE ALONG THE LINES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. BECAUSE OF BETTER RESOLUTION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING PRECEDING IT...THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE INEFFICIENT SNOW RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...FUTURE SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS THE PROFILES ARE VERY VERY CLOSE TO THE LINE WHERE SNOW FORMATION WOULD BE UNLIKELY. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... KENTUCKY LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EDGE NORTH AS IT MAKES ITS WAY OFFSHORE. COMPARED TO A FEW DAYS AGO...MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM BEING A LITTLE BIT STRONGER...AND HAVE ACCORDINGLY RAISED SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY. TRICKY PART WILL BE DETERMINING JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL REACH. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL COULD REACH 2-4 INCHES IN THE WV/MD RIDGES...DECREASING TO AN INCH FROM ZANESVILLE TO PITTSBURGH. THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING TO PICK UP ITS INCH OF SNOWFALL AS WINDS BRIEFLY TURN NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH SNOW COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING...AFTER MIDNIGHT YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS GENERALLY UNORGANIZED AT THIS POINT...AND ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...WHICH REMAINS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING A COUPLE OF QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVES IN THE SHORT TERM...WHICH TRANSLATES TO GREATER DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ONE THING THAT IS GENERALLY AGREED UPON IS A WARMUP TO AT LEAST NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN AN EXITING WEAK LOW SUN NIGHT AND A QUICK MOVING FRONT MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONG WAA WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG THE FRONT. ELECTING TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW AS CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EC/GFS EXIST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ULTIMATELY REINFORCING THE WARMING TREND. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... TERMINALS CURRENTLY AFFECTED BY IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING TERMINALS ARE TO EXPECT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO CROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS GUSTING FROM THE WSW. .OUTLOOK..../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1252 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 422 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM IS THE LIGHT SNOW EVENT THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEN LATER TONIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MORE WIND AND COLD TO FOLLOW. LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD EXIT THE CWA AROUND 15Z. THIS TIMING MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND THE 06Z HOPWRF...ALONG WITH THE 06Z NAMWRF. THIS WILL LEAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. SOME WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST CWA FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES MOVE THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN DIFFICULT WITH RATHER STRONG CAA PATTERN THIS MORNING. SHOULD DROP OFF TO AROUND ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE MAKING SOME MEAGER RECOVERY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE SNOW EXIT WITH CLOUDS FOLLOWING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS. LATER TONIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE 00Z-06Z OUT WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVEMENT OF THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z THU. THIS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z AS MODELS DO INDICATE RATHER QUICK MOISTENING BECAUSE OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SPREADS RAPIDLY EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AFTER 06Z AND WE SHOULD SEE DECENT LIGHT SNOW AGAIN...WITH AN INCH OR SO THROUGH 12Z THU. WINDS WILL BECOME A FACTOR IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH GOOD PRESSURE FALLS. INSERTED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW DURING THE NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE EVENING AGAIN...AND RISE THROUGH THE 20S OVER THE WEST THROUGH 12Z. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 422 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 WITH THE SURFACE LOW CIRCA 995MB STRADDLING THE INTERSECTION OF LK SUPERIOR/MN/WI ON THURSDAY MORNING...WILL LIKELY SEE WRAP-AROUND SNOW UNTIL AROUND 18Z GENERALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94. WHILE SNOW WILL BE ENDING OVER WEST CENTRAL MN....NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL LIKELY YIELD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH/WEST...SO HAVE REMOVED SNOW CHANCES FROM ALL BUT FAR WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN. FRIDAY TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID TEENS...BUT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WAVE WILL YIELD SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. IN FACT...SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISING ACROSS WEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS WAVE ON SATURDAY...SO LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014 THE SHORT TERM PROBLEM IS DETERMINING HOW FAST TO CLEAR THE MVFR CEILINGS OUT OF EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. SO FAR THE WEAK WINDS HAVE KEPT THE CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH. IT`S STILL POSSIBLE THEY COULD LINGER EVEN LONGER THAN WHAT`S CURRENTLY IN THE TAF. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON SPECIFIC TIMING. BEYOND THE SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...THE SNOW WILL THEN MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND AS THE SNOW COMES TO AN END...STRONG W-NW WINDS WILL FORM. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MN. KMSP... GETTING A HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF GETTING ABOVE 1700 FT CEILINGS HAS BEEN TOUGH. THE WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE IN CLEARING THE STRATUS OUT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...BUT WE ARE LIKELY STILL A BIT TOO FAST IN CLEARING THINGS OUT. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU NIGHT...VFR. N WIND 5-10 KT. FRI...VFR. N WIND AROUND 5 KT BCMG W. FRI NIGHT...MVFR CONDS PSBL LATE. CHC -SN. S WIND 10-15 KT. SAT...MVFR CONDS PSBL. CHC -SN. S WIND 10-15 KT SHIFTING N. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
552 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 422 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM IS THE LIGHT SNOW EVENT THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEN LATER TONIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MORE WIND AND COLD TO FOLLOW. LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD EXIT THE CWA AROUND 15Z. THIS TIMING MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND THE 06Z HOPWRF...ALONG WITH THE 06Z NAMWRF. THIS WILL LEAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. SOME WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST CWA FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES MOVE THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN DIFFICULT WITH RATHER STRONG CAA PATTERN THIS MORNING. SHOULD DROP OFF TO AROUND ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE MAKING SOME MEAGER RECOVERY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE SNOW EXIT WITH CLOUDS FOLLOWING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS. LATER TONIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE 00Z-06Z OUT WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVEMENT OF THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z THU. THIS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z AS MODELS DO INDICATE RATHER QUICK MOISTENING BECAUSE OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SPREADS RAPIDLY EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AFTER 06Z AND WE SHOULD SEE DECENT LIGHT SNOW AGAIN...WITH AN INCH OR SO THROUGH 12Z THU. WINDS WILL BECOME A FACTOR IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH GOOD PRESSURE FALLS. INSERTED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW DURING THE NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE EVENING AGAIN...AND RISE THROUGH THE 20S OVER THE WEST THROUGH 12Z. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 422 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 WITH THE SURFACE LOW CIRCA 995MB STRADDLING THE INTERSECTION OF LK SUPERIOR/MN/WI ON THURSDAY MORNING...WILL LIKELY SEE WRAP-AROUND SNOW UNTIL AROUND 18Z GENERALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94. WHILE SNOW WILL BE ENDING OVER WEST CENTRAL MN....NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL LIKELY YIELD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH/WEST...SO HAVE REMOVED SNOW CHANCES FROM ALL BUT FAR WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN. FRIDAY TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID TEENS...BUT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WAVE WILL YIELD SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. IN FACT...SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISING ACROSS WEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS WAVE ON SATURDAY...SO LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTAT 94. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 539 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 IFR CONDITIONS DROPPING SOUTHEAST WITH THE SNOW THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WISCONSIN SITES FOR A FEW HOURS YET THIS MORNING. FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS IF MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORITON OF THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST HIGHER LEVEL HUMIDITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH KMSP WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE EDGE. SREF PROBS FOR MVFR CIGS REMAIN HIGH TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AS WELL..AND WHATEVER IS LEFTOVER WILL LIKELY BY LIFTED NORTH AND EAST INTO THE EVENING. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP TO THE WEST THROUGH 14Z OR SO...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BY EVENING. NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WEST AROUND 03Z WITH -SN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST CWA OVERNIGHT. KMSP WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW....WITH DEVELOPMENT AFTER 06Z...THEN INTO WISCONSIN. NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT AS IT SAGES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT...LESS THAN 7 KTS. AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE...GUSTY TO THE WEST DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING. KMSP...CIGS TO REMAIN IN THE 15-2000 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON TOTAL CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS...WITH MODELS INDICATING KMSP WILL REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF THE MVFR CIGS. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT DID GO VFR AROUND 18Z. COULD SEE THESE MVFR CIGS LIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW DEVELOPS AFTER 06Z. SHOULD SEE THIS PUSH OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH 15Z THU. SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST WITH FROPA AND WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN THIS EVENING AND INCREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU NIGHT...VFR. N WIND 5-10 KT. FRI...VFR. N WIND AROUND 5 KT BCMG W. FRI NIGHT...MVFR CONDS PSBL LATE. CHC -SN. S WIND 10-15 KT. SAT...MVFR CONDS PSBL. CHC -SN. S WIND 10-15 KT SHIFTING N. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
422 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 422 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM IS THE LIGHT SNOW EVENT THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEN LATER TONIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MORE WIND AND COLD TO FOLLOW. LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD EXIT THE CWA AROUND 15Z. THIS TIMING MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND THE 06Z HOPWRF...ALONG WITH THE 06Z NAMWRF. THIS WILL LEAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. SOME WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST CWA FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES MOVE THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN DIFFICULT WITH RATHER STRONG CAA PATTERN THIS MORNING. SHOULD DROP OFF TO AROUND ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE MAKING SOME MEAGER RECOVERY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE SNOW EXIT WITH CLOUDS FOLLOWING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS. LATER TONIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE 00Z-06Z OUT WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVEMENT OF THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z THU. THIS WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z AS MODELS DO INDICATE RATHER QUICK MOISTENING BECAUSE OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SPREADS RAPIDLY EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA AFTER 06Z AND WE SHOULD SEE DECENT LIGHT SNOW AGAIN...WITH AN INCH OR SO THROUGH 12Z THU. WINDS WILL BECOME A FACTOR IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH GOOD PRESSURE FALLS. INSERTED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW DURING THE NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE EVENING AGAIN...AND RISE THROUGH THE 20S OVER THE WEST THROUGH 12Z. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 422 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 WITH THE SURFACE LOW CIRCA 995MB STRADDLING THE INTERSECTION OF LK SUPERIOR/MN/WI ON THURSDAY MORNING...WILL LIKELY SEE WRAP-AROUND SNOW UNTIL AROUND 18Z GENERALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94. WHILE SNOW WILL BE ENDING OVER WEST CENTRAL MN....NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL LIKELY YIELD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH/WEST...SO HAVE REMOVED SNOW CHANCES FROM ALL BUT FAR WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN. FRIDAY TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID TEENS...BUT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WAVE WILL YIELD SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. IN FACT...SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISING ACROSS WEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS WAVE ON SATURDAY...SO LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTAT 94. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014 CEILINGS HAVE QUITE THE VARIETY AT 06Z INITIALIZATION AS ONE BATCH OF -SN HAS PUSHED THRU MN ON INTO WRN WI...WITH SOME OF THE OB SITES REPORTING VSBY AS LOW AS 1SM. VSBYS HAVE COME UP...ALONG WITH CEILINGS...BUT SHORT TERM MODELS /HOPWRF...RAP...HRRR/ GENERALLY INDICATE ANOTHER SWATH OF -SN...MAINLY S OF KAXN-KSTC AND W OF KRWF...TO IMPACT ERN MN AND WRN WI IN THE 08Z-13Z TIMEFRAME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HOW THIS WOULD IMPACT AIRPORT ACTIVITY AROUND SUNRISE. CONDS THEN GO TO VFR FAIRLY QUICKLY LATE THIS MRNG AND LOOK TO REMAIN AS VFR THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE COMES LATE WED EVE SO LOWER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY -SN CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS HAVE SHOWN THE TENDENCY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 5-10KT OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW. DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO TIME...GENERALLY VEERING FROM S-SW TO W BY DAYBREAK THEN NW BY LATE MRNG BEFORE BACKING TO S AGAIN WED EVE. KMSP...CIGS HAVE RISEN TO VFR BUT AM NOT EXPECTING THAT TO LAST GIVEN MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM SO WILL LOOK FOR A COUPLE HRS OF VFR BEFORE CIGS FALL TO MVFR THRU THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS. IN ADDITION...A MORE SOLID ROUND OF -SN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING PUSH BUT UNCERTAINTY IN ITS DURATION...HENCE THE TEMPO GROUP ARND THE 11Z HOUR. CONDS THEN IMPROVE STEADILY BY LATE MRNG AND VFR CONDS PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MVFR CIGS RETURN TNGT BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL CHCS OF -SN. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR CIGS PSBL EARLY. NW WIND 10-15 KT. THU NIGHT...VFR. N WIND 5-10 KT. FRI...VFR. N WIND AROUND 5 KT BCMG W. FRI NIGHT...MVFR CONDS PSBL LATE. CHC -SN. S WIND 10-15 KT. SAT...MVFR CONDS PSBL. CHC -SN. S WIND 10-15 KT SHIFTING N. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1140 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014 SNOW CONTINUED TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS EVENING...AND HAS MADE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. CLEARING WILL WORK INTO INTERNATIONAL FALLS BY 0830Z...THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RAP HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014 WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS INTENSIFYING AS MID LVL TROF/1004MB SFC LOW APPROACH THE CWA. PVC CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA AS OF MID AFTN. GUSTY SW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED OVER NRN/WRN CWA. LATEST VWPDLH SHOWS 20/25KT WINDS AROUND THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER AT THIS TIME. AREA OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN DISORGANIZED AND LIGHT SO FAR. A BRIEF SNOWSHOWER OCCURRED AT KFOZ OTHERWISE ITS HAS BEEN MAINLY DRY UNDERNEATH HIGHER LVL RADAR RETURNS OVER KOOCH/ITASCA COUNTY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 CST TUE FEB 11 2014 TONIGHT..CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO BIFURCATE THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH THE SFC LOW REDEVELOPING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS REDUCES THE POTENTIAL BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL SFC LOW. AS A RESULT WE SHOULD HAVE AN ELONGATED PRESSURE TROUGH/FRONTAL BDRY PROVIDING A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIFT AS IT PASSES ANY GIVEN LOCATION. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE ABOUT 3 TO 4 HRS OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS FEATURE. WITH AREAL AVG QPF OF .05"/.10"... AND A SLR OF 17:1 TO 20:1...SNOW ACCUM SHOULD BE AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SFC TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY...OR SLOW TO FALL UNTIL FROPA. TOMORROW...FRONTAL BDRY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTN. MOST PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY OVER NWRN WISC IN THE MORNING. TIME HEIGHT XSECTS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER ONCE AGAIN AND REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMO. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 CST TUE FEB 11 2014 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. HAVE BROKEN GRIDS INTO 3 HOUR INCREMENTS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...TO APPLY BETTER TIMING AND RESOLUTION. WILL INCREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT...WITH LIKELY TO 80 PLUS POPS ACROSS THE AREA BY LATER IN THE NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT AN ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT. SREF PLUME MEAN VALUES ARE INDICATING SOLID ADVISORY AMOUNTS WITH 2 TO 5 ACROSS THE CWA. THE HIGHEST LOOKS TO BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND ALSO ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS IT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND INTO THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT AMOUNTS MAY ACTUALLY SNEAK TOWARD THE 6 INCH MARK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH REGARD TO A WEAK SYSTEM SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WOULD AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO THE 30S ON MONDAY BUT BACK OFF A BIT TO THE 20S ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014 IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING. CLEARING WAS MOVING TOWARD THE KINL AREA...AND SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 0830Z. THE CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN BACK LATE IN THE PERIOD. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL START TO IMPACT THE NORTHLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY AFTER 06Z ON THE 13TH. THIS CLIPPER IS STRONGER AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH IT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 3 12 5 20 / 80 10 80 90 INL -7 5 -1 11 / 90 10 90 60 BRD 2 12 8 21 / 80 10 90 40 HYR 4 19 9 26 / 80 20 80 80 ASX 7 18 7 24 / 70 20 70 80 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MELDE SYNOPSIS...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...DAP AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
823 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 758 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014 We are watching the 00 UTC NAM come in...with the 00 UTC RAP already in. It appears that the going forecast is pretty much on track. One minor tweak we did make is to extend the sleet mention to the remainder of the area from late tonight into early Friday morning. Regional RAOBS are awfully dry this evening...thus wet- bulb sleet appears in play. Additionally, the RAP and NAM are bringing elevated instability into western Missouri early Friday morning. This may result in convective elements in the form of sleet/graupel. While we`re not ready to insert a thunder mention at this point, a rumble or two wouldn`t be a huge surprise. One other point we want to re-emphasize with this system is that despite the dry air currently in place, lift will drastically increase starting late tonight and will likely compensate for the lack of moisture. Isentropic plots indicate strong pressure advection in the 290-295 K potential temperature layer. Meanwhile, an approaching PV anomaly (due to digging short wave energy) and the left-forward quadrant of an upper level jet streak will ramp up mid/upper level tropospheric lift. With that being said, we are going to nudge PoPs up late tonight and early Friday morning across extreme southeastern Kansas and western Missouri. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 305 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014 Beautiful day observed across the region. Under a mainly sunny sky, temperatures have warmed well into the 40s, with a few 50s reported across southwestern Missouri and southeastern Kansas. Looking at visible satellite imagery, we have done a number on our remaining snow cover. Only areas left with appreciable snow cover include far northern Benton/Morgan/Miller, northwestern Bourbon (Kansas) and portions of Howell, Oregon and southern Shannon. Mid/high level moisture will gradually increase this evening into the overnight hours ahead of a fast moving, but rather potent shortwave trough that will approach from the northwest late tonight, moving through the area Friday morning. Moisture availability will be limited, though the system itself will bring enough moisture with it to bring a risk of precipitation. PV anomaly with this wave is rather strong, thus lift will not be an issue. The window of opportunity for lift will be pretty narrow, beginning after 3 AM and lasting until around noon. 12z suite of short range model output is in decent agreement with producing two primary bands of precipitation associated with a developing area of surface low pressure that will move northwest/southeast across the state. The first area of precipitation looks to just clip our central Missouri counties. The GEM remains the most bullish with QPF (and it`s also the furthest to the southwest with this band of precipitation). The NAM is the most bearish with little in the way of QPF being produced. Consensus dictates that this band of snow will more likely target areas to our northeast. Nevertheless, there should be enough moisture and lift present to produce light snow beginning late tonight with a dusting of less than one inch possible by mid morning Friday. Will need to watch the near term models for any shift in the location of this band of snow. The second band/area of precipitation looks to develop overhead toward daybreak Friday and more so into the daylight hours of Friday morning. Again, this will be fast moving, thus any precipitation will be quite light and end rather quickly. Thermal profiles across most of the area will support light rain. The only exceptions will once again be central Missouri and then areas of the eastern Ozarks along/east of the Highway 63 corridor. In this area, a mix of light freezing rain/sleet/snow will be possible until late morning when temperatures will slowly rise above freezing. A dusting of accumulation and patchy ice accumulation is possible for areas along/east of the Highway 63 corridor, though it does not look to be a widespread issue. Will need to watch the near term models to see if there will be any change to the expected thermal profiles and surface temperatures Friday morning. Quiet and seasonable weather conditions are expected from Friday night through Saturday night. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 305 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014 Overnight lows will see some significant warming after Friday night. Lows Friday night will fall into the lower 20s with overnight lows by Sunday morning only falling into the lower 40s. Despite a modified northwesterly upper level flow, surface high pressure, plenty of sunshine and southerly surface winds will allow temperatures to continue on a warning trend through the weekend and into next week. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 40s across central Missouri to near 60 near the Oklahoma border through the weekend with nearly all locations across the Ozarks in the 60s for the beginning of next week. A weak cold front will move through the plains and bring the chance for some light showers on Monday with Tuesday morning lows around the freezing mark. A warm front will then lift north through the region late Wednesday into Thursday with the potential for some scattered thunderstorms by Thursday afternoon. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 529 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014 An upper level storm system will impact the region over the next 24 hours. The first impact will be low level wind shear from late tonight into early Friday morning. Ceilings will also lower with scattered rain showers developing Friday morning. A cold front will push through the region from mid to late morning with brisk and gusty northwest winds developing behind it. Ceilings behind the front are then expected to lower into the MVFR category. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Schaumann SHORT TERM...Gagan LONG TERM...Hatch AVIATION...Schaumann
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
340 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 338 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014 Very fast northwest flow aloft will dominate the upper flow west of the Mississippi River through Saturday. There will be no fewer than 3 clipper type systems which will be embedded within this flow and will pass close or through the CWA during this period. And the long awaited thaw, which normally comes in January, will finally arrive. In the very short term a shortwave trough will exit the CWA this evening on its way towards enhancing the winter storm which is ongoing over the southeastern U.S. A weak cold front currently over northwest MO will likely fall apart over the CWA tonight. This will present a forecast challenge as a band of low clouds has followed the passage of this front. With very weak winds behind the front plus some residual moisture from today`s snowmelt it`s possible these low clouds will linger well into the night...and thus keep temperatures from falling too far. First in the series of clipper systems will pass through the Dakotas and MN tonight/Thursday. Pressure falls east of the Rockies will allow moderately strong warm air advection to spread through the region tomorrow and allow above freezing temperatures. The extensive and deep snow cover plus increasing high level clouds will temper the warmup but highs in the 40s seem reasonable for most. A stronger system will track further south Thursday night and Friday and bring a good chance for precipitation to at least the northeast half of the CWA. Models are all on the same page but with some timing differences. The combination of an increasing nw-se oriented baroclinic zone over the CWA with a deepening upper system justifies increasing PoPs this area with measurable snowfall likely. Have gone conservative on snow amounts with this package but one could argue for somewhat higher amounts due to the strength of the warm air advection. The frontal boundary associated with this system will likely pass through the CWA on Friday and knock temperatures back down below seasonal averages. The third clipper system will arrive for the start of the weekend but pass further north than Fridays system. Another surge of warm air advection south of this upper system will result in a warm front lifting northeast through the CWA during the day. Should be able to wring out some elevated precipitation northeast of this boundary with most of the precipitation falling north and east of the CWA. Most favorable region in the CWA for chance PoPs will be over the northeastern counties with snow the most likely precipitation type. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 338 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014 Conditions continue to look favorable for a period of warm weather for our section of the country. The break down of the ridge over the West Coast recently will allow a more zonal like flow to develop across the nation during this period. While significant troughs are still moving through the adjusted flow, the Polar express that has been feeding the center of the country with Arctic air will take some time off. Therefore, the warming trend that is beginning this week will persist into next week, with the occasional dip in temperatures as fast moving shortwave troughs zip through the flattened flow across the nation. Confidence in the overall upward trend in temperatures through next week is rather high, though the specifics of those warmer temperatures will be very hard to forecast with precision due to the melting snow pack. This may introduce significant errors in forecast highs for late in the weekend and early next work week. So, confidence in above freezing, snow melting, weather is high with readings ranging through the 40s and 50s for much of the next work week, with a mid week appearance of 60s possible as advertised 850mb temperatures stay above zero. However, as a cautionary tail that winter isn`t done yet, current models also advertise a return of the highly amplified pattern just past the following weekend, with a return of the cold Arctic air. Otherwise, one of the troughs moving through will arrive in our area Monday, and with the expectation of above freezing temperatures current thoughts are that we might have some rain to start the next work week. Rainfall amounts wont be very high however owing to poor moisture from the Gulf, but every little bit will help. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1139 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 Upstream band of MVFR ceilings stretching from southern MN through central KS have been slow to move into northwest MO. RAP has performed the best in handling these cloud trends. Still expect MVFR ceilings to spread through northwest and west central MO and eastern KS later this evening. A weak cold front will precede the arrival of these clouds with a weakening area of high pressure in its wake. The weak post frontal wind field plus moisture from the melting of the snow pack causes some concern as to how long will the MVFR ceilings linger. Current thinking is that once they arrive they will be slow to clear. Will push their departure time back to around midnight with the possibility the MVFR ceilings could linger through the entire night. May not be able to address that until after sunset to see how the cloud band responds. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions on Thursday with increasing south- southwest winds. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM...Cutter AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1148 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 1106 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 Quick update to increase PoPs near the MO/IA border where snow showers have formed resulting in quick snow-bursts which drop visibilities down to less than a mile. A dusting...one to two tenths of an inch...of snow is likely with these snow showers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 325 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 Forecast remains on track with only minor updates in this package. An upper trough will move through the region today, with a relatively unimpressive short period for light precipitation. A brief window exists with sufficient vertical saturation and weak ascent for a couple hours of light snow, primarily across far northern Missouri. With limited moisture and the short duration, overall snowfall amounts will be light, with less than one-half inch over far northern Missouri. Otherwise, temperatures will gradually moderate today into Thursday. Highs today may finally flirt with the freezing mark in Kansas City, with temperatures reaching the lower to middle 40s by Thursday afternoon with ample sunshine. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 325 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 Increasing temperatures are still the main story for the long-range forecast period as longwave ridging transitions into the central CONUS during the weekend and into early next week. A cold front will sweep through the area early Friday morning, knocking temperatures down just a bit from Thursday, but warming will be fairly continual for Saturday through at least middle next week. Highs by early next week should be several degrees above normal, potentially reaching the mid 50s on Tuesday. There will be a few slight chances of snow for: 1) late Thursday night into early Friday morning as a shortwave trough cuts through the CWA, and 2) Saturday morning into the afternoon as another clipper system dips into far northeast Missouri. Snow amounts from both of these systems will be light, due to limited moisture and the location of better forcing to our north. Light rain showers are also possible late Sunday night through Monday as a slightly stronger shortwave trough lifts out of the central Plains, but low moisture availability will again limit potential rainfall accumulations. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1139 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 Upstream band of MVFR ceilings stretching from southern MN through central KS have been slow to move into northwest MO. RAP has performed the best in handling these cloud trends. Still expect MVFR ceilings to spread through northwest and west central MO and eastern KS later this evening. A weak cold front will precede the arrival of these clouds with a weakening area of high pressure in its wake. The weak post frontal wind field plus moisture from the melting of the snow pack causes some concern as to how long will the MVFR ceilings linger. Current thinking is that once they arrive they will be slow to clear. Will push their departure time back to around midnight with the possibility the MVFR ceilings could linger through the entire night. May not be able to address that until after sunset to see how the cloud band responds. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions on Thursday with increasing south- southwest winds. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MJ SHORT TERM...Blair LONG TERM...Laflin AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
322 PM MST WED FEB 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI... VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION TODAY THANKS TO A STRONG MID LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WOUND UP OVER NE MONTANA HELPED PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA COMBINED WITH 700MB FLOW AROUND 70 KTS. THE WIND HIGHLIGHTS HAVE WORKED OUT WELL THROUGH THE DAY. LIVINGSTON HAS GUSTED AS HIGH AS 76 MPH...63 MPH AT JUDITH GAP AND 62 MPH AT BIG TIMBER. SUSTAINED WINDS HIT AROUND 50 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS THE WEST. IN ADDITION...SOME APPARENT MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION OVER THE BIG HORNS PRODUCED WINDS GUSTING UP TO 75 MPH AT DAYTON IN SHERIDAN COUNTY OF WYOMING. WE TYPICALLY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY HIT THE SHERIDAN AREA AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE PRESSURE RISES WORK INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...WILL ADD A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SHERIDAN THROUGH 8 PM. THE REST OF OUR HIGHLIGHTS GO UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST PROBLEM IS DO WE NEED TO EXTEND THEM INTO THURSDAY. THE RAP MODEL HAS PRESSURE RISES DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA JUST AFTER 6 PM THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. HOWEVER...PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE. DATA FROM THE NAM SUGGEST PARAMETERS FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN AT BIG TIMBER BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...BUT LIVINGSTON WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. THEREFORE...OUR PLAN IS TO HOLD ON TO THE HIGHLIGHTS AS THEY ARE NOW...AND ADVISE NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS TO CONSIDER ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS FOR BIG TIMBER TOMORROW AND PERHAPS DOWNGRADING OR RE-ISSUING LIVINGSTON/NYE AS AN ADVISORY RATHER THAN A WARNING LIKE TODAYS AS THE THREAT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME DECENT SNOWFALL FELL IN THE COOKE CITY VICINITY TODAY WITH UP TO 8 INCHES AT THE FISHER CREEK SNOTEL. A LITTLE MORE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT THE NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT THE HIGH COUNTRY COMES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHEN ANOTHER 3 TO 6 INCHES MAY PILE UP ON WEST FACING SLOPES. ANOTHER GOOD WAVE WILL HIT THE HIGH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON WEST FACING SLOPES. PLEASE NOTE THE AVALANCHE WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COOKE CITY AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING. GOOD MIXING TOMORROW SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH JUST A BIT COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY. BT .LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED... ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND WITH PACIFIC ENERGY LATE SAT/SUN BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AND SCATTERED LOWER ELEVATION PRECIPITATION...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SUN AFTN INTO EVENING PERIOD AS MAIN TROF AXIS PASSES THROUGH. AS WITH EACH OF THE SHORTWAVES THIS WEEK...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRE-FRONTAL GAP WINDS FOLLOWED BY SOME POST-FRONTAL WIND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE GAP AREAS APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA SAT NITE. TEMPS SAT/SUN WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH SAT OFFERING THE WARMER AIRMASS BUT SUN THE BETTER MIXED DAY. TROF DIGGING OFF THE PAC COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY WX MON/TUE. SHOULD POINT OUT THAT TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND KEEP HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF 550DAM OVER OUR REGION...AND AS A RESULT THE POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE WARMING DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SNOW COVER SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF A FACTOR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WITH TUE BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. HAVE STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE HERE. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE GAP WIND POTENTIAL...BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY. WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO 50-55 KTS AND A TIGHT SFC GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GAP AREAS...IE LIVINGSTON TO NYE. HAVE RAISED WIND SPEEDS IN THESE AREAS TO SHOW GUSTS TO 60 MPH. MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD THAT PAC TROF WILL MOVE INLAND AND BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR AREA TUE NITE OR WED...THOUGH DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN...AS YOU WOULD EXPECT AT DAYS 7/8. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS BROADBRUSHED TUE NITE AND WED...HIGHEST OVER THE MTNS. TEMPS WILL TAKE A STEP DOWN BUT COLDER CANADIAN AIR MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THU/FRI. JKL && .AVIATION... STRONG SW-W WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS. EXPECT GUSTS OF 50-60 KTS AT KLVM... 40-50 KTS AT K3HT...AND 30-40 KTS AS FAR EAST AS KBIL AND KSHR. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW THOUGH WITH GUSTS NOT QUITE AS HIGH. OTHERWISE... PCPN OVER THE MTNS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE MTN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/ SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 031/048 028/043 031/045 037/049 032/049 037/052 031/042 12/W 12/W 31/B 23/W 20/N 00/B 12/W LVM 037/052 032/046 031/051 040/049 033/050 037/052 031/046 23/W 14/W 32/W 25/W 21/N 11/N 23/W HDN 027/048 026/045 029/048 031/052 028/052 031/053 032/045 14/W 14/W 31/B 13/W 20/U 00/B 12/W MLS 022/042 024/040 025/043 029/048 028/047 030/049 034/043 14/W 12/W 50/U 23/W 10/U 00/B 12/W 4BQ 029/045 025/045 027/047 030/052 028/052 029/055 034/047 13/W 11/B 40/B 13/W 30/U 00/U 02/W BHK 019/036 021/038 022/039 025/045 024/043 029/046 028/044 16/W 21/B 50/U 12/W 10/U 00/U 01/B SHR 030/046 025/044 027/049 030/052 024/050 027/054 029/046 12/W 11/B 30/B 14/W 40/U 00/B 12/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 28-63-65-66. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 41. WY...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 99. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
304 AM MST WED FEB 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL START TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IN SOME AREAS OF THE STATE...NAMELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE A WEAK FRONT COOLS READINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THE EAST ON FRIDAY. && .DISCUSSION...BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE PATTERN THAT HAS FORCED OLD MAN WINTER TO TAKE A VACATION AWAY FROM NEW MEXICO. WHILE HE WREAKS HAVOC ON THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT OVER NM WITH RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS LEADING TO A PRONOUNCED WARM-UP. SCATTERED BATCHES OF HIGH CIRRUS WILL BE OBSERVED PERIODICALLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD POSE NO MAJOR IMPACT TO THE WARMING. HAVE HEDGED THE FORECAST HIGHS WITH WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AND EVEN ABOVE BY A FEW DEGREES IN SOME EASTERN ZONES. WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME...KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS LOW AS THEY COULD ON A CALM/CLEAR NIGHT. THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO HASTEN THE WARM-UP DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY SURMOUNT THE DIURNAL RISE OF TODAY. THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DECAMETERS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROPOSPHERE WITH H7 TEMPERATURES SKYROCKETING...ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL TAKE EFFECT. SOME RECORD HIGHS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL CREATE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. THE WINDS AT H7 OR RIDGE TOP LEVEL STAY QUITE STRONG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LESSEN SOME INTO THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. ALSO...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL EASE INTO THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...SETTING TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STILL...ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD ECLIPSE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MID FEBRUARY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE ZONAL ON SATURDAY AS A RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENS OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. THIS WILL MODERATE SPEEDS ALOFT WITH ANOTHER LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL ONLY INTENSIFY INTO SUNDAY WHILE GAINING SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN STRONGER WESTERLIES THROUGH THE H7-H5 LAYER. EVIDENCE OF SOME SCANT HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALSO APPROACHES NM LATE SUNDAY WHILE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF DOES CARVE THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE OUT IN A MORE AGGRESSIVE MANNER...POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SPOTTY NORTHERN TIER PRECIPITATION. WILL NOT SNATCH THE DANGLING CARROT JUST YET. 52 && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE THE RULE FOR THE REST OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND QUITE WARM THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DEW POINTS HAVE CRATERED ON AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM 24 HOURS AGO CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH LESSER DROPS CLOSER TO THE TX BORDER IN THE PLAINS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FORECAST LOWER RH VALUES MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CLINES CORNERS TO LAS VEGAS AREAS. HOWEVER...LOW HAINES FORECAST OVERALL. VENT RATES TO BE GOOD OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST WITH A MIX OF FAIR TO GOOD WEST. WINDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS...WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND SOME NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. POOR RH RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HRS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER A WIDER AREA...MOST OF GUADALUPE AND DE BACA COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH A WATCH FOR ZONE 108 ALTHOUGH FORECAST HAINES STILL LOW. EASTERN PARTS OF ZONE 109 COULD ALSO SEE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS BUT NOT INCLUDING THEM IN THE WATCH AT THIS TIME. VENT RATES GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST AREAS THURSDAY. VENT RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH REMAIN MOSTLY GOOD. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE BUT NOT BY SO MUCH...WITH A 5 TO 15 DEGREE COOL DOWN IN THE EAST DUE TO A SURFACE FRONT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR FROM THE LOWER RGV INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS REMAIN A GOOD 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST...WHERE FORECAST HAINES IS HIGH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT MONDAY...WHICH COOLS HIGHS DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE. THE ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE MAY CLIP THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST BUT IT LOOKS DRY. MODELS INDICATE A DEEPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ALOFT...BLANKETS OF CIRRUS WILL CROSS. AN EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EARLY WED MORNING IN THE LOWER PECOS RIVER VALLEY AROUND KROW...WHERE THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE NAILING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND POSSIBLY LOW CLOUDS. THE MODEL IS ACTUALLY CALLING FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH AROUND KROW TO PREVENT THE VSBY FM DROPPING MUCH BELOW 1 MILE. WINDS IN THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF THE N OR NW AROUND 12-14Z...WHEN THE RESULTANT DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE FOG TO DIMINISH. MUCH DRIER AIR THAT ARRIVES WED AND PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL PREVENT FOG FROM RETURNING TO KROW THURS NIGHT. 44 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 53 28 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 47 17 52 21 / 0 0 0 0 CUBA............................ 50 19 57 25 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 56 23 64 26 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 53 25 60 28 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 56 26 64 29 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 57 26 63 29 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 66 32 72 35 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 45 16 48 20 / 0 0 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 48 30 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 51 30 58 33 / 0 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 45 17 51 22 / 0 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 40 15 44 19 / 0 0 0 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 45 16 51 21 / 0 0 0 0 TAOS............................ 49 19 55 25 / 0 0 0 0 MORA............................ 51 27 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 56 27 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 52 29 58 33 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 29 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 56 35 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 59 38 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 60 32 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 60 33 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 62 33 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 59 35 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 64 36 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 29 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 55 31 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 28 66 33 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 53 33 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 34 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 59 35 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 55 30 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 56 26 66 29 / 0 0 0 0 RATON........................... 56 24 67 30 / 0 0 0 0 SPRINGER........................ 57 27 67 30 / 0 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 55 33 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 58 34 72 35 / 0 0 0 0 ROY............................. 57 32 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 59 37 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 61 39 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 59 33 76 36 / 0 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 57 34 73 38 / 0 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 58 33 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 60 37 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 65 34 80 39 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 62 37 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 60 37 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ108. && $$ 52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1054 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ALOFT...BLANKETS OF CIRRUS WILL CROSS. AN EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EARLY WED MORNING IN THE LOWER PECOS RIVER VALLEY AROUND KROW...WHERE THE HRRR MODEL APPEARS TO BE NAILING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND POSSIBLY LOW CLOUDS. THE MODEL IS ACTUALLY CALLING FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH AROUND KROW TO PREVENT THE VSBY FM DROPPING MUCH BELOW 1 MILE. WINDS IN THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF THE N OR NW AROUND 12-14Z...WHEN THE RESULTANT DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE FOG TO DIMINISH. MUCH DRIER AIR THAT ARRIVES WED AND PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL PREVENT FOG FROM RETURNING TO KROW THURS NIGHT. 44 && .PREV DISCUSSION...302 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014... .SYNOPSIS... A DRY PATTERN AND WARMING TREND WILL SET THE PACE FOR THE NEW MEXICO WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL ABOVE MID FEBRUARY NORMALS...BEFORE SOME COOLER AIR INVADES THE EAST TO START NEXT WORK WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY...TROUGH ALOFT THAT SWEPT THROUGH NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT NOW LIES EAST OF THE STATE FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY. FLOW OVERHEAD HAS VEERED TO THE NORTHWEST...AS SURFACE FRONT DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOVES BACK TO THE EAST EN ROUTE TO TEXAS. MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...IN ADVANCE OF WEAK RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHEAR EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. WEEKEND SYSTEM STRENGTHENING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TROUGH TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY MIDWEEK...FORCING FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE HEART OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVERHEAD. A LITTLE COOLER WEST...A LITTLE WARMER EAST...WITH SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH. FOR WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. SOUTHWEST BREEZES DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGH COUNTRY...EASTERN SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. BROAD WARMING TREND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY. FOR THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING OVERHEAD...AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TO A NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TO TEXAS PANHANDLE AXIS. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING SPEED. LOW HUMIDITIES AND SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS MAY PRODUCE SOME FIRE CONCERNS OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARMING TREND WILL PUSH EASTERN TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE MID FEBRUARY NORMALS...WITH 5 TO 15 DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES IN THE WEST. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY DAY BREAK FOR FRIDAY...COOL PUSH OVERSPREADING EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL KNOCK A HALF DOZEN DEGREES OFF OTHERWISE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WARMING TRENDS CONTINUE IN THE WEST. CONTINUED SUNNY AND DRY. OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...WARM WEEKEND ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES BROADLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE MID FEBRUARY NORMALS AS RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE STATE AND THEN SHEARS RAPIDLY EASTWARD BY LATE SUNDAY. COOLER AIR SLIDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE MONDAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO WITHIN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE WORK WEEK KICKS OFF. WESTERLY BREEZES DEVELOPING EACH WEEKEND AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTERN SLOPES AND NEARBY PLAINS...WITH EASTERN WINDS SHIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS COLDER AIR SPILLS SOUTHWARD. DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHY && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY NW FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO WEEKEND WITH TEMPS...ESPECIALLY DAYTIME...WARMING TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THEREAFTER THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND QUITE WARM THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. FAIR TO VERY GOOD RH RECOVERIES MOST AREAS TONIGHT. LOWER DEW POINTS WED AND THU WITH WINDS INCREASING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE STATE. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY RESULT IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF VERY MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS WED IN A VERY SMALL AREA JUST W AND N OF SANTA ROSA. VENT RATES IMPROVE FOR MOST OF THE EAST... GENERALLY IN THE GOOD TO VERY GOOD RANGE...FAIR TO GOOD MOST OF THE WEST. AFTN TEMPS WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM EVEN ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE BIG CHILL HAS RECENTLY DOMINATED. VENT RATES IMPROVE TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVER MOST OF THE REGION THU AS W AND NW WINDS BECOME GUSTY ALONG AND SOME DISTANCE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. HIGH TEMPS IN THE EAST WILL REACH 10 TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN THE PLAINS. MUCH POORER RH RECOVERIES WED NIGHT OVER THE LOWER RGV AND A GOOD PORTION OF EAST NM. WITH WARM AFTN TEMPS AND INCREASING WINDS A FAIRLY NARROW SWATH OF SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE LAS VEGAS AREA THROUGH PORTIONS OF GUADALUPE AND DE BACA COUNTIES. DUE TO THIS CRITICAL RISK AREA BEING RATHER NARROW AND HAINES INDICES IN THIS AREA EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 3... CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ON FRIDAY...A WIND SHIFT IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS MAY COOL TEMPS A BIT...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL NOT BE CRITICAL CONDITIONS FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL COULD BE CLOSE IN A FEW SPOTS OUT EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN GOOD OR BETTER FROM THE CHUSKA MTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH OTHER AREAS SEEING AT LEAST SPOTTY FAIR VALUES. HIGHS REMAIN A GOOD 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT EXPECTED NEXT MONDAY WILL COOL IT DOWN SOME...MAINLY EAST. 43 && && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
724 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AS THESE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REFLECT REALITY. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST IS GOOD. PREVIOUS FORECAST... 330 PM UPDATE... WE`VE EXPANDED WINTER STM WARNINGS ACRS NRN PTNS OF THE CWA...BASICALLY BACK WESTWARD TO ABT THE I-81 CORRIDOR. WARNINGS NOW EXTEND ALG AND E OF A LN FROM ONONDAGA-CORTLAND- BROOME-SUSQ-WYOMING-LUZERNE CNTYS...WITH ADVSYS W OF THIS LN THRU THE FINGER LKS AND CNTRL SRN TIER RGNS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPR AIR/MESO-ANALYSIS DATA DEPICT A DEEPENING AND CLOSED 700-500 MB LOW OVER VA ATTM...LIFTING NEWD...WITH AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS/INCREASING RADAR COVERAGE ACRS ERN WV/VA. IN THE MEANTIME...A WELL DEFINED NARROW SNOW BAND EXTENDS FROM CNTRL PA...NEWD TO KBGM...TO JUST S OF KALY...AND INTO CNTRL NEW ENG. THE 13-KM RUC MODEL HAS BEEN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF EACH OF THESE FEATURES WELL SO FAR TDY...AND WE`VE LEANED HEAVILY ON ITS OUTPUT GOING FORWARD...WITH SOME SUPPORT NOW INDICATED FROM THE 12Z EC...CANADIAN...AND LOCAL WRF MODELS. WE EXPECT THE MAIN SNOW BAND OVER CNY ATTM TO SLOW ITS WWD PROGRESS THROUGH THIS EVE AND BROADEN OUT...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE CLOSED MID TO UPPER-LVL LOW FROM THE S. A NARROW BAND OF FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO DVLP THIS EVE (00-06Z) UNDERNEATH STG MID-LYR FGEN FORCING...ON THE NRN/WRN SIDES OF THE 700-500 MB LOW. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FUTURE HEAVIER SNOW BAND IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...THE MOST LIKELY POSITION IS JUST E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR (FROM NE PA INTO ERN BROOME/ERN CHENANGO CNTYS...AND THE WRN CATSKILLS). AS THE CLOSED MID-UPR LVL CIRCULATION LIFTS FURTHER INTO NEW ENG AFTER 06Z...THE STEADIEST/HVYST SNOWFALL SHOULD EXIT THE RGN FROM SW TO NE. BY ARND DAYBREAK...THIS EVENT SHOULD BE OVER FOR OUR CWA. ON FRI...A NRN STREAM S/WV...SEEN ON SAT IMAGERY OVER UPR MI/NRN WI ATTM...IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACRS THE RGN. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT AS A "KICKER" TO MOVE OUR PRESENT STORM FURTHER AWAY INTO THE N ATLANTIC...IT WILL ALSO HELP BRING SOME LIGHTER SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS BACK OVER CNY/NE PA...WITH AREAS SE OF LK ONT SEEING A BIT OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT...WITHIN NWLY LOW-LVL FLOW. ANY ADDTNL SNOWFALL AMTS ON FRI SHOULD BE LIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...ONE FRI NGT/SAT MRNG AND ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY. MAY SEE MINOR ACCUMS ACRS NE PA ON SAT NGT. LAKE RESPONSE BEHIND THESE CLIPPERS PER FCST PROFILES SUGGESTS WEAK/MINOR LES EVENTS. GIVEN TDA`S FOCUS ON SHORT TERM...WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS POTNL WITH LATER FCSTS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LOWER HEIGHTS DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A BROADENING OF THE FLOW TO QUASI-ZONAL ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. THIS SUGGESTS A GRADUAL WARM UP WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE WEEK WITH RATHER RAPID TRANSITING SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. A COUPLE QUICK HITTING FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MON NITE-TUES AND THEN AGAIN THURS NITE-FRI TIME PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW...WITH A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN EVENT POSSIBLE WITH THE LATTER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE EAST. THE WX SYSTEMS WILL BE MINOR...BUT THE MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RIPEN AND MELT A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK WITH AREA RIVERS RESPONDING TO THE RUNOFF. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NOREASTER MVG UP THE CST CONTS TO PUSH PCPN INTO THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. BAND OF MOD SNOW OVER CNTRL NY AFFECTING ALL BUT AVP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE LFTG OUT BRINGING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. LRG AREA OF CONV SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LOW IS FCST BY THE HRRR TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES...SO WLD XPCT MAINLY LGT SNOW WITH MVFR OR OCNL IFR CIGS THRU THE NGT. DRIER AIR MVES IN AFT 12Z AND OTR THAN A FEW SNOW SHWRS OVER THE NRN SITES...XOCT VFR CONDS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD. OUTLOOK... FRI NGT...BECOMING IFR IN -SN WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. SAT/SUN...VARIABLE VMC/IMC IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. SUN NGT...VFR. MON...BECOMING MVFR. CHC WINTRY MIX. TUE...VFR/MVFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043- 044-047-048-072. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ038. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-036- 037-044>046-056-057-062. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ015>017- 022>025-055. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...DGM/JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
649 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AS THESE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 330 PM UPDATE... WE`VE EXPANDED WINTER STM WARNINGS ACRS NRN PTNS OF THE CWA...BASICALLY BACK WESTWARD TO ABT THE I-81 CORRIDOR. WARNINGS NOW EXTEND ALG AND E OF A LN FROM ONONDAGA-CORTLAND- BROOME-SUSQ-WYOMING-LUZERNE CNTYS...WITH ADVSYS W OF THIS LN THRU THE FINGER LKS AND CNTRL SRN TIER RGNS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPR AIR/MESO-ANALYSIS DATA DEPICT A DEEPENING AND CLOSED 700-500 MB LOW OVER VA ATTM...LIFTING NEWD...WITH AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS/INCREASING RADAR COVERAGE ACRS ERN WV/VA. IN THE MEANTIME...A WELL DEFINED NARROW SNOW BAND EXTENDS FROM CNTRL PA...NEWD TO KBGM...TO JUST S OF KALY...AND INTO CNTRL NEW ENG. THE 13-KM RUC MODEL HAS BEEN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF EACH OF THESE FEATURES WELL SO FAR TDY...AND WE`VE LEANED HEAVILY ON ITS OUTPUT GOING FORWARD...WITH SOME SUPPORT NOW INDICATED FROM THE 12Z EC...CANADIAN...AND LOCAL WRF MODELS. WE EXPECT THE MAIN SNOW BAND OVER CNY ATTM TO SLOW ITS WWD PROGRESS THROUGH THIS EVE AND BROADEN OUT...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE CLOSED MID TO UPPER-LVL LOW FROM THE S. A NARROW BAND OF FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO DVLP THIS EVE (00-06Z) UNDERNEATH STG MID-LYR FGEN FORCING...ON THE NRN/WRN SIDES OF THE 700-500 MB LOW. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FUTURE HEAVIER SNOW BAND IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...THE MOST LIKELY POSITION IS JUST E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR (FROM NE PA INTO ERN BROOME/ERN CHENANGO CNTYS...AND THE WRN CATSKILLS). AS THE CLOSED MID-UPR LVL CIRCULATION LIFTS FURTHER INTO NEW ENG AFTER 06Z...THE STEADIEST/HVYST SNOWFALL SHOULD EXIT THE RGN FROM SW TO NE. BY ARND DAYBREAK...THIS EVENT SHOULD BE OVER FOR OUR CWA. ON FRI...A NRN STREAM S/WV...SEEN ON SAT IMAGERY OVER UPR MI/NRN WI ATTM...IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACRS THE RGN. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT AS A "KICKER" TO MOVE OUR PRESENT STORM FURTHER AWAY INTO THE N ATLANTIC...IT WILL ALSO HELP BRING SOME LIGHTER SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS BACK OVER CNY/NE PA...WITH AREAS SE OF LK ONT SEEING A BIT OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT...WITHIN NWLY LOW-LVL FLOW. ANY ADDTNL SNOWFALL AMTS ON FRI SHOULD BE LIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...ONE FRI NGT/SAT MRNG AND ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY. MAY SEE MINOR ACCUMS ACRS NE PA ON SAT NGT. LAKE RESPONSE BEHIND THESE CLIPPERS PER FCST PROFILES SUGGESTS WEAK/MINOR LES EVENTS. GIVEN TDA`S FOCUS ON SHORT TERM...WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS POTNL WITH LATER FCSTS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LOWER HEIGHTS DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A BROADENING OF THE FLOW TO QUASI-ZONAL ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. THIS SUGGESTS A GRADUAL WARM UP WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE WEEK WITH RATHER RAPID TRANSITING SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. A COUPLE QUICK HITTING FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MON NITE-TUES AND THEN AGAIN THURS NITE-FRI TIME PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW...WITH A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN EVENT POSSIBLE WITH THE LATTER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE EAST. THE WX SYSTEMS WILL BE MINOR...BUT THE MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RIPEN AND MELT A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK WITH AREA RIVERS RESPONDING TO THE RUNOFF. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NOREASTER MVG UP THE CST CONTS TO PUSH PCPN INTO THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. BAND OF MOD SNOW OVER CNTRL NY AFFECTING ALL BUT AVP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE LFTG OUT BRINGING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. LRG AREA OF CONV SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LOW IS FCST BY THE HRRR TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES...SO WLD XPCT MAINLY LGT SNOW WITH MVFR OR OCNL IFR CIGS THRU THE NGT. DRIER AIR MVES IN AFT 12Z AND OTR THAN A FEW SNOW SHWRS OVER THE NRN SITES...XOCT VFR CONDS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD. OUTLOOK... FRI NGT...BECOMING IFR IN -SN WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. SAT/SUN...VARIABLE VMC/IMC IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. SUN NGT...VFR. MON...BECOMING MVFR. CHC WINTRY MIX. TUE...VFR/MVFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043- 044-047-048-072. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ038. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-036- 037-044>046-056-057-062. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ015>017- 022>025-055. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...MLJ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...DGM/JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1045 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SEVERE DAMAGE FROM HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE WORST OF IT LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR MORE INLAND COMMUNITIES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING LONGEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL TURN UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING AND INTENSIFY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...THE 2ND PART OF THIS WINTER STORM IS JUST BEGINNING ACROSS THE AREA...AND WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A MAJOR...IF NOT UNPRECEDENTED...ICING EVENT ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. NATIONAL SCALE WV AND IR IMAGERY DEPICTS A TEXTBOOK BAROCLINIC LEAF SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...EXPANDING FROM A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. THIS CYCLOGENESIS IS BEING DRIVEN BY A POTENT VORTICITY IMPULSE DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. AS THIS IMPULSE DROPS FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND CLOSES OFF TONIGHT...SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE...IN A MILLER-B TYPE SETUP. AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS WEDGING DOWN THE COAST WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR DUE TO AGEOSTROPHIC DRAINAGE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE. CONFLUENCE ALOFT WELL AHEAD OF THE VORTICITY IMPULSE IS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY...BUT WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY CAUSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO RETREAT SLOWLY. THIS MORNING`S 12Z SOUNDING FROM KMHX SUGGESTS THE COLD DOME IS ONLY ABOUT 2000 FT DEEP...BUT QUITE INTENSE. AT THE SAME TIME...AN EXTREMELY DRY LAYER IS NOTED AT 925MB WITH A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 30C! AFTER COLLABORATION WITH FORECASTERS AT MHX...IT IS BELIEVED THAT DRY LAYER IS A BIT OVERDONE...BUT A SIGNAL FOR CONCERN NONETHELESS DUE TO POTENTIAL DRY AIR ADVECTION TODAY...EVEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST AS NOTED ABOVE. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE DEWPOINT TEMPS UPSTREAM (ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE NC) ARE ONLY IN THE MID TEENS...SO AS THIS DRY AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE ILM CWA...IT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AS PRECIP STREAMS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL HELP OFFSET THE WARMING DUE TO LATENT HEAT RELEASE OF FREEZING AT THE SURFACE (DUE TO FREEZING RAIN ACCRETION) AND THUS ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT AND EFFICIENT ACCRETION (RATES) THROUGH THE EVENT. SO ONE THING IS CERTAIN...A MAJOR ICING EVENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THAT DOES NOT MAKE FOR AN EASY FORECAST HOWEVER. AS PRECIP CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY...IT WILL WARM ALOFT SUCH THAT PRECIP WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO ALL FREEZING RAIN. ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES VERY INTENSE THIS AFTN AND EVE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 45-55KTS OF WIND ADVECTING ACROSS ABOUT 70MB OF SLOPE ALONG THE 290K THETA-SURFACE JUST WITHIN THE CWA THIS EVE...WITH IMPRESSIVE UVV`S OCCURRING AS THE LLJ NOSES INTO THE REGION. THIS IS A SIGNAL FOR INCREASINGLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...LIKELY MUCH OF WHICH WILL FALL INTO A SUBFREEZING SURFACE LAYER. IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN THAT AREAS WEST OF ABOUT A KINGSTREE...TO WHITEVILLE...TO ELIZABETHTOWN WILL SEE AN HISTORIC ICING EVENT TODAY. WHILE HEAVY RAIN RATES TYPICALLY DO NOT ACCRETE EFFICIENTLY (QPF TO ICE IS USUALLY A LOW PERCENTAGE)...HEAVY RATES INTO TEMPS IN THE MID 20S INLAND COULD LEAD TO INCREDIBLE ACCRETION RATES OF 0.04 - 0.08 INCHES PER HOUR...IF NOT SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THIS IS WHY FORECAST ICE TOTALS OF 0.5 TO 1.00 INCHES IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE LINE MENTIONED. THE TRICKIER PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE. GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT THAT WARM AIR WILL NOSE NW TODAY...TURNING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TO RAIN THIS AFTN. NOTE THAT LAPS ANALYSIS SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPS ARE COLDER THAN ANY AVAILABLE GUIDANCE (AS OF THIS WRITING 12Z NAM AND 14Z RUC)...WHICH SUGGESTS THE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO QUICK TO CHANGEOVER FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY N/NE WINDS CONTINUING TO ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. IF WINDS CAN REMAIN MORE N THAN NE...A LONGER DURATION ICING EVENT WILL UNFOLD...AND ILM OBS HAVE FLUCTUATED 020-030 ALL MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...IF SURFACE LOW TRACK ENDS UP JUST SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...MORE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE COAST. THUS...HAVE INCREASED FORECAST ICE ACCRETIONS ACROSS THE EAST (EXTREME COASTAL ZONES EXCLUDED) TO 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES. SO...WITH ALL THAT SAID...WHEW...EXPECT A FULL DAY OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH FREEZING RAIN SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND MOVING WEST THEREAFTER. THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS WERE EXPANDED TO THIS EVE AT THE COAST...AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING INLAND. FREEZING RAIN OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES DUE TO TREES DOWN AND WIRES DOWN. ROADS WILL BECOME DANGEROUS...IF NOT IMPASSABLE...AND TRAVEL SHOULD BE UNDERTAKEN ONLY IF ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. WHILE PRECIP CHANGING TO RAIN WILL EASE EFFECTS SOMEWHAT AT THE COAST...EVEN THERE IMPACTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. INLAND...AN HISTORIC EVENT IS LIKELY UNFOLDING WHICH CAN REALLY ONLY BE COMPARED TO JANUARY 2004 LOCALLY. OTHERWISE...ONE MUST LOOK TO OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY FOR COMPARABLE FREEZING RAIN ACCRETIONS. TEMPS WILL WARM ONLY VERY SLOWLY TODAY...RISING TO THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST (HIGH TEMPS WILL BE REACHED TONIGHT)...AND LOW 30S INLAND. THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO DIURNAL COOLING TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THURS LIFTING FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WELL INLAND WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING TO START THE DAY AND THEREFORE ANY LINGERING PCP MAY COME IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURS AFTN AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLD AND DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ALL PCP TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WITH DEEP NW FLOW OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST LATE THURS AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON THURS INTO EARLY FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THE HIGH WILL RIDGE UP FROM THE SOUTH THURS NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH NW WINDS BUT WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW THROUGH FRI AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING CLOSER TO 60. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRI SWEEPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. LATEST GFS SHOWING A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DIGGING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE GREATER CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP...MAINLY FRI NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...THE DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW BEHIND IT WILL SCOUR OUT ALL CLOUDS AND PCP LEADING TO A DRIER AND COOLER FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THAN CLOUDS FOR THE MOST PART. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE UP FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD PRODUCE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ON MON NIGHT INTO TUES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FORM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT WARMER TEMPS AHEAD OF FRONT IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH CLOUDS MAINLY AFFECTING THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON TUES AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER BUT WILL END UP IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUES. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 12Z...AN AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION...MAINLY FZRA AND IP... IS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE VFR BUT MVFR IS DEVELOPING FROM S-N AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES. MVFR WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WITH IFR LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. ONCE IFR DEVELOPS IT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM. FZRA/IP SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AT KFLO FZRA/IP SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN MID-LATE AFTERNOON WHILE FZRA MAY CONTINUE AT KLBT UNTIL THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND INLAND THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF IFR...IF PRECIPITATION DECREASES AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR DEVELOP. PRECIPITATION SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK UP THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WINTRY PRECIP IS STILL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THUR EVENING. FRI EVENING A CHANCE OF TEMPO SNOW SHOWERS/IFR. VFR SAT AND SUN. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST...CREATING A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNED DOWN THE COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEARS... THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATER THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT. NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 7 TO 11 FT WITH 12 FT SEAS AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK AROUND AND LIGHTEN THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WILL DROP CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH LATE THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES UP FROM THE GULF COAST. SEAS UP AROUND 6 TO 8 FT EARLY THURS WILL DROP DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL SPIKE UP AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WATERS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE N WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE LATE MON INTO TUES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT SAT MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND REMAINING BENIGN THROUGH MON AFTN. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH MON NIGHT INTO TUES WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT AGAIN. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-053-055. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054- 056. NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096- 099-105. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106>110. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
649 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SEVERE DAMAGE FROM HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE WORST OF IT LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR MORE INLAND COMMUNITIES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING LONGEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL TURN UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING AND INTENSIFY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...A LARGE SWATH OF FREEZING RAIN WAS EXPANDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THERE WERE REPORTS OF SLEET MIXING IN FROM TIME TO TIME. SEVERE TO DESTRUCTIVE ICING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. THE WORST OF THE ICING IS EXPECTED TODAY ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE ALONG THE COAST. FOR MORE INLAND AREAS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AND THE WORST OF THE ICING TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ICE ACCRETION OF AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REACH UP TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS W. WE ARE EXPECTING TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD DAMAGE IN THOSE AREAS WHERE ICING EXCEEDS A HALF INCH. THE NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY RECEIVE ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL BRING STRONG N TO NE WINDS TO THE AREA. THESE WINDS...UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN GUSTS AND 35 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE HEAVY ICING WILL BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES. WE DO EXPECT WIDESPREAD DAMAGE IN MOST AREAS WITH PERHAPS THE WORST OF THE DAMAGE ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHERE THE GREATEST ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED. POWER OUTAGES MAY LINGER FOR DAYS IF NOT A WEEK OR MORE IN SOME LOCATIONS. A SPECIAL SOUNDING AT CHS OVERNIGHT CONFIRMS THE CURRENT FORECAST AND THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE SUBFREEZING LAYER BELOW THE BROAD WARM NOSE DOES NOT EXCEED 1500 TO 2000 FT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RATHER RAPIDLY AFTER IT CROSSES N FL THIS EVE AND TURNS UP THE COAST. A LARGE AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM FURTHER AS THE MOIST AND COMPARATIVELY WARM AIRMASS TO OUR S IS LIFTED UP AND OVER THE SHALLOW...SUBFREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. THE TRUE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT AS THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...STRENGTHENING MORE ONSHORE FLOW LATE DAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BRING SOMEWHAT HIGHER TEMPS OFFSHORE ONTO THE COAST...CHANGING FREEZING RAIN TO JUST PLAIN RAIN. THIS SPELLS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MAINLY MODERATE TO PERHAPS AT TIMES HEAVY PRECIPITATION. WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS BELOW FREEZING...MELTING PRECIPITATION BELOW THE WARM NOSE WILL FREEZE AS IT COMES IN CONTACT WITH THE GROUND AND EXPOSED SURFACES. THUS THE FORECAST OF SEVERE TO DESTRUCTIVE ICE. ACROSS OUR NW ZONES...SNOW AND SLEET MAY AMOUNT TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AS THE DEPTH OF THE SUBFREEZING LAYER BELOW THE WARM NOSE SHRINKS CLOSER TO THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HOLD STEADY NEAR 30 DEGREES. HOWEVER...ALONG THE COAST...WE DO EXPECT READINGS TO INCH TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING... ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE TO DO SO. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE AS IT BECOMES AT LEAST TEMPORARILY OVERWHELMED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THE FLOW WILL BACK FROM NE TO N OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THURS LIFTING FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WELL INLAND WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING TO START THE DAY AND THEREFORE ANY LINGERING PCP MAY COME IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURS AFTN AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLD AND DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ALL PCP TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WITH DEEP NW FLOW OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST LATE THURS AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON THURS INTO EARLY FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. THE HIGH WILL RIDGE UP FROM THE SOUTH THURS NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH NW WINDS BUT WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W-SW THROUGH FRI AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING CLOSER TO 60. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRI SWEEPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. LATEST GFS SHOWING A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DIGGING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE GREATER CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP...MAINLY FRI NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...THE DEEP DRY W-NW FLOW BEHIND IT WILL SCOUR OUT ALL CLOUDS AND PCP LEADING TO A DRIER AND COOLER FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN THAN CLOUDS FOR THE MOST PART. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE UP FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD PRODUCE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ON MON NIGHT INTO TUES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FORM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT WARMER TEMPS AHEAD OF FRONT IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH CLOUDS MAINLY AFFECTING THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON TUES AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER BUT WILL END UP IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUES. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 12Z...AN AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION...MAINLY FZRA AND IP... IS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE VFR BUT MVFR IS DEVELOPING FROM S-N AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES. MVFR WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WITH IFR LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. ONCE IFR DEVELOPS IT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM. FZRA/IP SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AT KFLO FZRA/IP SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN MID-LATE AFTERNOON WHILE FZRA MAY CONTINUE AT KLBT UNTIL THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND INLAND THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF IFR...IF PRECIPITATION DECREASES AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR DEVELOP. PRECIPITATION SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK UP THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WINTRY PRECIP IS STILL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THUR EVENING. FRI EVENING A CHANCE OF TEMPO SNOW SHOWERS/IFR. VFR SAT AND SUN. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH WILL CREATE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOMES PINCHED FOR A TIME. THIS WILL PRODUCE GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEARS... THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATER THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT. NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 7 TO 11 FT WITH 12 FT SEAS AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK AROUND AND LIGHTEN THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WILL DROP CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH LATE THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES UP FROM THE GULF COAST. SEAS UP AROUND 6 TO 8 FT EARLY THURS WILL DROP DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL SPIKE UP AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WATERS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE N WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE LATE MON INTO TUES WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT SAT MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY AND REMAINING BENIGN THROUGH MON AFTN. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY PUSH MON NIGHT INTO TUES WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT AGAIN. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-053-055. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054- 056. NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ087-096- 099-105. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106>110. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
629 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WINTER STORM JUST EAST OF THE NJ COAST THIS EVENING...WILL MOVE UP THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FIRST PART OF A WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TO THE KEYSTONE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS PULL WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... NEARLY STATIONARY DEFORMATION BAND CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR. MEANWHILE...LIGHT MIXED PRECIP OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY IS CHANGING TO MOD-HVY SNOW AS STRONG FORCING ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM VIRGINIA. LATEST MDL QPF SUPPORTS AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW THIS EVENING EAST OF HARRISBURG AS UPPER TRACKS ACROSS THE DELMARVA. MEANWHILE...22Z RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS DEFORMATION SNOW BAND OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST BTWN 00Z-05Z. HAVE EXTENDED THE WARNING/ADVISORIES THRU MIDNIGHT BASED ON 18Z MDL DATA...WHICH INDICATES BACK EDGE OF SNOW WON/T EXIT THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST THAT TIME. ANY LINGERING -SN SHOULD END ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...AS LOW PULLS NE AWAY FROM PENNSYLVANIA. GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIG BLOWING/DRIFTING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 20-25KTS FROM HARRISBURG SEWRD. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... FRIDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY BUT NOT TERRIBLY COLD IN THE WAKE OF OUR STORM. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO OUR LARGER STORM THAT BY MID DAY WILL BE MOVING UP INTO THE MARITIMES. PRECIP WITH THIS CLIPPER LOW/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO WESTERN PA IN THE FORM OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL DROP SE ON SAT...BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT OT MDT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF THE STATE AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS WVA AND NRN VA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FEATURE CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLY OF JUST ENOUGH SNOW /ACROSS THE LAURELS AND SOUTHERN TIER OF PENN/ FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AS THE SFC LOW QUICKLY STRENGTHENS AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST. FOR NOW...DID UP POPS AND AMTS SOME. FOR SUNDAY...SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OF PA MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAR WEST EARLY. MAYBE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THAT COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...MUCH LIKE WED AM. A CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. SHOULD BE DRY ON WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AFTER TUESDAY COULD WARM TEMPS BY A LOT BY LATER NEXT WEEK...BUT SNOW COVER AND ICE ON LAKES MAY TAPER THINGS. PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARM UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES...BUT COLDER AIR STILL TO THE NORTH. ONE COULD SEE A 20 TO 30 DEGREE GRADIENT IN TEMPS FROM N PA TO S PA BY LATE NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR THU. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH IFR/LIFR DOMINATING. HARRISBURG AREA AND SOUTHWARD WILL BE RIGHT IN THE PRECIP TRANSITION AREA WHERE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AND RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS. EXPECT IFR TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES UP INTO NEW ENGLAND AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN TOMORROW AS A CLIPPER SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS BACK TO MAINLY WESTERN HALF OF CWA. ANOTHER WEAK STORM WILL SLIDE OFF THROUGH VA FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING...BRINGING REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM ALTOONA EASTWARD. OUTLOOK... SAT-SUN...MVFR TO IFR WITH SCT SHSN WEST. MAINLY VFR CENTRAL AND EAST. MON...LOWERING CONDITIONS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TUE...NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... HARRISBURG SET A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 8.3 INCHES REPORTED AT 5 PM. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ012- 017-037-041-042-045-046. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ018-019- 024>028-033>036-049>053-056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE CLIMATE...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1132 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EAST COAST STORM IS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVR THE AREA WILL PRODUCE IDEAL CONDS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH A CLEAR SKY...CALM WIND AND SNOW COVER. LATE EVENING IR LOOP SHOWS EARLIER STRATOCU HAS CLEARED UP ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED BY FALLING TO -2F AT KBFD AT 03Z. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...FEEL CONFIDENT IN UNDERCUTTING MOS MIN TEMP GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES. RAP OUTPUT SEEMS MORE REASONABLE...INDICATING LOWS MOSTLY BTWN 5-10 BLW ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR ZERO IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAIN FOCUS IS ON HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE CYCLE CONTINUES TO PLACE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY...WHERE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. POOR MAN`S ENSEMBLE OF CMC/NAM/GFS STILL FAVOR...PERHAPS AT THEIR PERIL...AN OFFSHORE TRACK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER QPF THAN THEIR EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. HOWEVER...A QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW 00Z NAM...WHICH INCORPORATED DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT LEVEL DATA FROM AIR FORCE RECON OVR THE GULF OF MEX...CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN OFFSHORE SFC LOW TRACK WITH THE HVY SNOW THREAT FROM HARRISBURG SEWRD. CHALLENGE FOR OUR AREA IS HANDLING THE SHARP GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK AND RESOLVING THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN LIQUID OUTPUT FROM THESE TWO CAMPS. STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL DEEPEN A SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS OR LOUISIANA GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF RESULTANT DEEP CONVECTION WILL LARGELY DETERMINE HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE SFC LOW CAN TRACK. LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK PLACING A LARGER PORTION OF CENTRAL PA INTO THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT SNOWFALL THURSDAY. NOT READY TO COMPLETELY BUY OFF ON THIS SOLUTION...BUT HAVE WEIGHTED PREVIOUS QPF AND SNOWFALL 20% OF THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION WHICH JOGS OUR SNOWFALL TOTALS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. WITH THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE...UPGRADED WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR LANCASTER YORK AND ADAMS...AND ISSUED WATCHES FOR SCHUYLKILL LEBANON DAUPHIN PERRY CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON AND BEDFORD COUNTIES. ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF STATE COLLEGE AND JOHNSTOWN...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT YET FOR THESE AREAS AND THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THESE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT. SNOWFALL SHOULD LAST A GOOD PORTION OF THURSDAY OVER THE EAST BEFORE TAPERING OFF...PERHAPS AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OVER SOUTHERN LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES INVOF THE SFC LOW TRACK... WHICH MAY DRY SLOT THE PIEDMONT REGION. STILL MANY DETAILS TO WORK OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT TREND IS FOR RAMPING UP SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY AND *PERHAPS* A MORE WESTERN SFC LOW TRACK AS PER ECMWF. HAVE NOT COMPLETELY BOUGHT OFF ON ECMWF DETAILS...BUT ITS CONSISTENCY AND POTENCY ARE UNDENIABLE AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE WESTWARD TREND CONTINUE...WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND WATCHES NORTHWARD EVEN FURTHER...ANOTHER ARGUMENT FOR HOLDING OFF ON ADVISORY ISSUANCES ON THIS TIME TO ALLOW FLEXIBILITY TO FUTURE SHIFTS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... COASTAL STORM WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA THU NIGHT. LEFT SOME SNOW IN FOR THU EVENING...MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS FAR EASTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM RECENT DAYS. DID EDGE TEMPS DOWN SOME IN THE PERIOD OF FRIDAY INTO MONDAY. CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...AS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. NW FLOW WILL KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH ON SAT. SOME HINTS OF WEAK SYSTEMS DROPPING SE SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS WENT WITH CHC POPS. LEFT MOST OF THE AREA DRY FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...GIVEN RIDGE LOCATION. SOME VARIATION IN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. WEIGHTED FCST CLOSER TO WPC GRAPHICS. GFS LOOKS A LITTLE FAST. SOME HINTS OF A MILDER PATTERN AS ONE GETS OUT IN TIME. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD...DRY ARCTIC HIGH IN CONTROL. AN EAST COAST STORM WILL AFFECT AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PART OF PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH REDUCTIONS LIKELY. OUTLOOK... WED NGT-THU...MVFR N TO IFR/LIFR SE IN SN. FRI- SUN...MVFR TO IFR WITH SCT SHSN. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056>059-063. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ064>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
512 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 500 PM UPDATE...SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...NOT HAVING MOVED TOO MUCH SINCE LAST UPDATE AND NOW BEING CENTERED OVER PANAMA CITY FL. WARM NOSE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE CWFA...WITH MIXED PTYPES NOW EVIDENT FROM OBS AND DUAL POL ANALYSIS MORE OR LESS UP TO I-85 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A RELATIVE LULL IN PCPN ACTIVITY IN THE SAME AREA...APPARENTLY DUE TO WEAKER WARM ADVECTION OVER THE WEDGE AS NOTED ON 850MB RUC FIELDS. THE GRADIENT AT THIS LEVEL TIGHTENS AGAIN BY 00Z AND PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN BY THAT TIME. NOTE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALSO MOVING THRU CENTRAL GA IN OUR DIRECTION PER RADAR MOSAIC. WRT PRECIP TYPES...18Z NAM BETTER REFLECTED EXTENT OF WARM NOSE AND AREA OF SLEET/FZRA...JUDGING BY SPOTTER REPORTS AROUND 4 PM AND THERMAL FIELDS OBTAINED FROM TOP DOWN TECHNIQUE WITH 18Z NAM AS INPUT. THE RESULT IS FOR A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FZRA THRU THE EVENING UP TO THE METRO AREAS ALONG I-85 WHICH LATER CHANGES BACK TO SNOW AS THE SFC LOW PASSES. AS OF 245 PM...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA...SOURCED FROM 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FL...LOWERING TO 1009 MB. RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE ANOTHER COOLING CLOUD TOPS WEST TO AL. 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLVL JET...WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6Z. THE LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH A POOL OF HIGH PW...SHOWN ON THE BLENDED PW...SUPPORTING A SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL BANDS OF -EPV WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE FORMATION OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS. A LARGE FIELD OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAKING 12Z THURS. THE OVERLAP OF LLVL AND MID LEVEL FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN THE GREATEST SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A VERY INTERESTING DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND 18Z THURS...PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF QPF. THE MESOSCALE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE. I WILL NOD TO THE SPECTRAL MODELS AND CONTINUE POPS WELL INTO THURS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LESSER QPF. OVERALL...ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.9 ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY. PRECIP TYPE IS COMPLICATED BY SUSPECT ABSENCE OF ICE NUCLEI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE GFS AND NAM. GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS MOISTURE AND OVERALL COLD LLVL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...I BELIEVE THAT ICE NUCLEI WILL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...DOPPLER VELOCITY AND DUAL POL AGREE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH DEVELOPING AN H85 WARM NOSE OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. THE WARMING ALONG THE EASTERN TIER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...YIELDING A BLEND OF SLEET AND FZRA. EVENTUALLY...DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY...AIDING DRYING FROM SW TO NE. POPS WILL DECREASE WITHIN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...HOLDING ON THE LONGEST ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR. THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS ON TRACK. I WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST ACCUMS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OVERLAP OF DEEP MOISTURE...SYNOPTIC FORCING...AND POTENTIAL BANDING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 310 PM...UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT THU NITE AS THE STRONG UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. A RELATIVELY STRONG CLIPPER TYPE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA SAT NITE. UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AGAIN ON SAT. AT THE SFC...EXPECT DRY BUT COLD WX THU NITE...BUT PRECIP TO RETURN LATE FRI AS MOISTURE AND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. THIS PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRI EVENING THEN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. THE BEST PRECIP CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE WLY UPSLOPE FLOW EXISTS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND FORCING LOOK DEEP ENUF FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. TEMPS FALL ACROSS THE MTNS AS CAA KICKS IN LATE FRI INTO FRI NITE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANGE TO SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH ADV LEVEL FRI NITE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO MORE THAN A DUSTING EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ATTM. COULD BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SAT MORNING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS NEAR THE TN BORDER... BUT THOSE WOULD END QUICKLY BEFORE NOON. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD FOR EACH PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED LINGERING SNOW AND ICE ACROSS THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 120 PM EST WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER HEALTHY LOOKING H5 SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE FCST AREA WHILE A FAIRLY STEEP UPPER RIDGE MAINTAINS ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATER ON SUNDAY WITH HEIGHTS RECOVERING A BIT ON MONDAY. BEYOND THIS POINT...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE WRT THE PROGRESSION/APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE NEWER 12Z RUN OF THE GFS HAS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS JUST TO OUR NORTH BY LATE MON/EARLY TUES WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 24 HRS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE FEATURE. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT AFTER THE 2ND SHORTWAVE PASSES...THE PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF WEAK MESO LOW JUST TO OUR WEST BY THE START OF THE FCST PERIOD. THIS FEATURE COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IF ANY. THE FEATURE DISSIPATES QUICKLY AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS BACK OVER THE REGION AND REMAINS THRU AT LEAST MONDAY. THE GFS HAS THE NEXT FRONT MOVING THRU LATE MON/EARLY TUES BUT THE ECMWF FROPA IS ABOUT 24 HRS LATER. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FCST WITH MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUN OVER PORTIONS OF NW HALF OF THE CWFA AND SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE STRONGER...MORE MOIST COLD FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPS SHOULD STEADILY WARM THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY DAYS 6 AND 7. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AT KCLT...AT 1 PM KGSP AND TCLT RADARS INDICATED A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW LIFTING NORTH SOUTH OF THE CLT METRO AREAS. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INTENSE BAND WILL LIKELY REACH THE CLT TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT HALF HOUR...REMAINING UNTIL 3 PM. THIS BAND MAY PRODUCE 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR. THE SNOW SHOULD REDUCE VIS TO 1/4 MILE IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINAL IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND...REMAINING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FZRA IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 GUSTING TO THE MID 20 KTS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. IFR VIS WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW AND SLEET. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 GUSTING TO THE MID 20 KTS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP DURING LATE THU MORNING. OUTLOOK...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING...AND MAY BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS/PRECIP TO KAVL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE TABLE... 22-04Z 04-10Z 10-16Z 16-22Z KCLT MED 69% MED 63% MED 70% HIGH 88% KGSP MED 67% MED 62% MED 69% MED 76% KAVL MED 70% MED 77% MED 77% MED 79% KHKY MED 70% LOW 58% MED 60% MED 75% KGMU MED 70% MED 62% MED 70% LOW 58% KAND MED 63% MED 69% MED 69% MED 74% THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES && .CLIMATE... RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR WEDNESDAY FEB 12TH... AVL...2.8 IN 2010 CLT...5.1 IN 1899 GSP...5.0 IN 1895 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ010-017- 018-026-028-029. NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ033- 035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510. SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ001>014- 019. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPT NEAR TERM...NED/WIMBERLEY SHORT TERM...RWH LONG TERM...JPT AVIATION...NED CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
821 PM MST THU FEB 13 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 818 PM MST THU FEB 13 2014 00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH ABOUT 500MB...BUT WITH SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. THIS IS KEEPING UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE SHOWERY ACTIVITY FROM BEING TOO PROBLEMATIC...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SHOW -SHRASN PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO EXPAND POPS TO ACCOUNT. WINDY SPOTS CONTINUE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 421 PM MST THU FEB 13 2014 LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS 21Z RAP SHOW FAST MOVING DECENT COVERAGE CLUSTER OF SHRASN MOVING THROUGH CWA. WILL ADJUST POPS TO BETTER MATCH EXPECTED SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 236 PM MST THU FEB 13 2014 UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS FAST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS CROSSING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING MONTANA AT THE MOMENT...WITH ADDITIONAL RETURNS MOVING INTO THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30S AND 40S. TONIGHT...UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS SURFACE LOW QUICKLY SLIDES NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES/ACCUMULATING SNOWS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FAITH AREA. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL MOSTLY LIKELY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY...WITH RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. && .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 236 PM MST THU FEB 13 2014 SEMI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS THE NE PAC UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSES WILL BRING PERIODIC DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONTS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED SUNDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM. FORECAST MODELS AND MEAN NAEFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING THE RETURN OF THE EAST PAC/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A VERY STRONG MID TROPOSPHERIC JET ADVECTS EAST OUT OF ASIA AND SUPPORTS BREAKDOWN OF THE NE PAC UPPER TROUGH. THE RESULT OF THIS TRANSITION WOULD BE THE RETURN OF VERY COLD AIR TO THE REGION WITH LONG TRAJECTORY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS IS CERTAINLY HINTED AT IN THE LONG RANGE NAEFS TEMP PROBABILITIES...ALTHOUGH IT IS CERTAINLY NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SOUTH SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH 60S LOOKING LIKELY IN THE LEE OF THE BLACK HILLS BY SUNDAY. A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH AMPLE LSA AND UVM PROGGED IN FORECAST MODELS. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE. LEFT TUE DRY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIP GIVEN THE COLLOCATION OF A STRONG MID LEVEL JET STREAK. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA WED/WED NIGHT. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP MENTION FOR THIS...FAVORING THE BLACK HILLS AND SCENTRAL AREAS ATTM. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THUR WITH A DOWN TREND IN HIGHS/LOWS. COLD FRONTAL TIMING /WHICH REMAINS HIGHLY VARIABLE IN CURRENT FORECAST MODELS/ WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON HIGHS THUR...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS ATTM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 818 PM MST THU FEB 13 2014 GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME -SHRASN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. LOCA IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE BLACK HILLS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PERHAPS LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS FROM KHEI TO KICR EARLY. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HELGESON SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
424 PM MST THU FEB 13 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 421 PM MST THU FEB 13 2014 LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS 21Z RAP SHOW FAST MOVING DECENT COVERAGE CLUSTER OF SHRASN MOVING THROUGH CWA. WILL ADJUST POPS TO BETTER MATCH EXPECTED SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 236 PM MST THU FEB 13 2014 UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS FAST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS CROSSING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING MONTANA AT THE MOMENT...WITH ADDITIONAL RETURNS MOVING INTO THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30S AND 40S. TONIGHT...UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS SURFACE LOW QUICKLY SLIDES NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES/ACCUMULATING SNOWS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FAITH AREA. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL MOSTLY LIKELY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIDAY...UPPER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY...WITH RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. && .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 236 PM MST THU FEB 13 2014 SEMI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS THE NE PAC UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSES WILL BRING PERIODIC DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONTS. THE STRONGEST OF THESE DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED SUNDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM. FORECAST MODELS AND MEAN NAEFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING THE RETURN OF THE EAST PAC/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A VERY STRONG MID TROPOSPHERIC JET ADVECTS EAST OUT OF ASIA AND SUPPORTS BREAKDOWN OF THE NE PAC UPPER TROUGH. THE RESULT OF THIS TRANSITION WOULD BE THE RETURN OF VERY COLD AIR TO THE REGION WITH LONG TRAJECTORY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS IS CERTAINLY HINTED AT IN THE LONG RANGE NAEFS TEMP PROBABILITIES...ALTHOUGH IT IS CERTAINLY NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SOUTH SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH 60S LOOKING LIKELY IN THE LEE OF THE BLACK HILLS BY SUNDAY. A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH AMPLE LSA AND UVM PROGGED IN FORECAST MODELS. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE. LEFT TUE DRY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIP GIVEN THE COLLOCATION OF A STRONG MID LEVEL JET STREAK. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA WED/WED NIGHT. HAVE ADDED A LOW POP MENTION FOR THIS...FAVORING THE BLACK HILLS AND SCENTRAL AREAS ATTM. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THUR WITH A DOWN TREND IN HIGHS/LOWS. COLD FRONTAL TIMING /WHICH REMAINS HIGHLY VARIABLE IN CURRENT FORECAST MODELS/ WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON HIGHS THUR...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS ATTM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 421 PM MST THU FEB 13 2014 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH SHRASN. VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS...WITH SPEEDS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL GUSTY AT TIMES. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HELGESON SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1153 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 PERIOD OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR AND RAP...WENT AHEAD AND SLOWED DOWN THE ENDING TIMING A BIT. THINKING SNOW MOVES OUT OF SIOUX FALLS RIGHT AROUND 12Z...AND EXITS NORTHWEST IOWA CLOSER TO 14Z OR 15Z. STILL LOOKING AT AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING TWO INCHES. SNOW WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND MAY STILL BE IMPACTING THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF SIOUX FALLS...INTERSTATE 90 EAST OF SIOUX FALLS AND NORTHWEST IOWA DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...SO USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING IN THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR PUSH BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S OVER A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. EXPECTING A QUICK EVENING DROP IN TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP. THUS DID LOWER LOWS IN THE EAST WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS LIKELY. HOWEVER WILL THEN SEE RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WAVE...WITH 20S AND 30S COMMON BY MORNING. BEST FORCING WITH THIS WAVE STILL LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH...AND QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. 925 MB WINDS ARE AROUND 40 KTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND 25 TO 35 KTS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. THUS SHOULD BE A BREEZY ONE AND MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH SEEM LIKELY. WITH THE RECENT SNOW...AM WORRIED ABOUT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW INTO THE GRIDS. QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER WE WILL NEED A HEADLINE. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...BUT THE ADDITIONAL NEW SNOW MAY HELP MAKE THINGS A BIT WORSE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS AND DECIDE IF ANY WINTER HEADLINES FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL BE NEEDED. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 THURSDAY STILL LOOKS MILD AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE BUT MODELS NOW COMING BACK AROUND TO A SLIGHTLY QUICKER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THURSDAY HAS BEEN A TOUGH DECISION ALL ALONG WITH VERY STANDARD DEVIATIONS IN THE MODELS SO WILL TEMPER THE COLDER SURGE AND WHAT WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER WINDS WITH SOME OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER. BEHIND THIS COLD SURGE IS A DECENT LITTLE WAVE AND EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. BACKED OFF ON THE THREAT FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION OR SLEET AS THE BULK OF THE FORCING SHOULD BE IN THE COLDER AIR AND NOW WITH THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER COLD AIR THE WARM LAYER ALOFT IS NOT AS PREVALENT. WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH HOWEVER AS STATED ABOVE AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT FLAKY WITH THIS COLD SURGE. THE COLD AIR LOCKS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WITH THE LOW LEVELS JUST A BIT COLDER THIS GO AROUND DROPPED LOWS AND HIGHS A TOUCH. IN THE OUTER PERIODS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WHAT SHOULD MAINLY BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO THREAT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE ON SATURDAY INCREASED POPS JUST A TOUCH AND DROPPED HIGHS DOWN JUST A LITTLE. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL STRONG AS THE MODELS IN THIS FAIRLY FAST FLOW AND SOMEWHAT TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ENVIRONMENT HAS A LOT OF ROOM FOR ERROR. AFTER THIS WARM AIR BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY BRINGING A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO REACH THE 40S OR BETTER. SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL HAVE THE HARDEST TIME WITH A LITTLE MORE SNOW COVER. COOLER AIR SURGES IN ON MONDAY BUT MIXY CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL YIELD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LITTLE MODEL DISCREPANCY COMES INTO PLAY ON TUESDAY WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STUBBORN ON LOCKING IN SOME COLDER AIR BUT IT HAS HAS OVERDONE THIS A BIT LATELY SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THINGS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 CURRENT CEILINGS NEAR 1K FEET...WITH SOME BELOW 1K FEET...IN NORTHWEST IA AND PART OF SOUTHWEST MN SHOULD BE SLOWLY ERODED THE REST OF THE DAY BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL GO FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THEN OUT OF SUX TAF SITE AS THEY ARE JUST EAST OF THERE NOW...AND THEY SHOULD BE OUT OF NORTHWEST IA BY 13/00Z. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH 13/03Z. FROM 13/03Z TO 13/12Z...STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE LOCAL VISIBILITIES 1-3SM IN BLOWING SNOW NORTH AND EAST OF FSD...MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA IN SOUTHWEST MN. THESE WINDS MAY GUST TO OVER 30 KTS. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS STRONG AFTER 12Z AS THEY BECOME WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND THE BLOWING SNOW SHOULD ABATE...LEAVING VFR AGAIN OVER THE AREA. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHENARD LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
553 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 PERIOD OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR AND RAP...WENT AHEAD AND SLOWED DOWN THE ENDING TIMING A BIT. THINKING SNOW MOVES OUT OF SIOUX FALLS RIGHT AROUND 12Z...AND EXITS NORTHWEST IOWA CLOSER TO 14Z OR 15Z. STILL LOOKING AT AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING TWO INCHES. SNOW WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND MAY STILL BE IMPACTING THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF SIOUX FALLS...INTERSTATE 90 EAST OF SIOUX FALLS AND NORTHWEST IOWA DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...SO USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING IN THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR PUSH BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S OVER A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. EXPECTING A QUICK EVENING DROP IN TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP. THUS DID LOWER LOWS IN THE EAST WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS LIKELY. HOWEVER WILL THEN SEE RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WAVE...WITH 20S AND 30S COMMON BY MORNING. BEST FORCING WITH THIS WAVE STILL LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH...AND QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. 925 MB WINDS ARE AROUND 40 KTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND 25 TO 35 KTS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. THUS SHOULD BE A BREEZY ONE AND MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH SEEM LIKELY. WITH THE RECENT SNOW...AM WORRIED ABOUT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW INTO THE GRIDS. QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER WE WILL NEED A HEADLINE. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...BUT THE ADDITIONAL NEW SNOW MAY HELP MAKE THINGS A BIT WORSE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS AND DECIDE IF ANY WINTER HEADLINES FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL BE NEEDED. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 THURSDAY STILL LOOKS MILD AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE BUT MODELS NOW COMING BACK AROUND TO A SLIGHTLY QUICKER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THURSDAY HAS BEEN A TOUGH DECISION ALL ALONG WITH VERY STANDARD DEVIATIONS IN THE MODELS SO WILL TEMPER THE COLDER SURGE AND WHAT WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER WINDS WITH SOME OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER. BEHIND THIS COLD SURGE IS A DECENT LITTLE WAVE AND EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. BACKED OFF ON THE THREAT FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION OR SLEET AS THE BULK OF THE FORCING SHOULD BE IN THE COLDER AIR AND NOW WITH THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER COLD AIR THE WARM LAYER ALOFT IS NOT AS PREVALENT. WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH HOWEVER AS STATED ABOVE AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT FLAKY WITH THIS COLD SURGE. THE COLD AIR LOCKS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WITH THE LOW LEVELS JUST A BIT COLDER THIS GO AROUND DROPPED LOWS AND HIGHS A TOUCH. IN THE OUTER PERIODS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WHAT SHOULD MAINLY BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO THREAT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE ON SATURDAY INCREASED POPS JUST A TOUCH AND DROPPED HIGHS DOWN JUST A LITTLE. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL STRONG AS THE MODELS IN THIS FAIRLY FAST FLOW AND SOMEWHAT TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ENVIRONMENT HAS A LOT OF ROOM FOR ERROR. AFTER THIS WARM AIR BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY BRINGING A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO REACH THE 40S OR BETTER. SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL HAVE THE HARDEST TIME WITH A LITTLE MORE SNOW COVER. COOLER AIR SURGES IN ON MONDAY BUT MIXY CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL YIELD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LITTLE MODEL DISCREPANCY COMES INTO PLAY ON TUESDAY WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STUBBORN ON LOCKING IN SOME COLDER AIR BUT IT HAS HAS OVERDONE THIS A BIT LATELY SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THINGS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 538 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES TOO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECTING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT KFSD BY 14Z...WITH THE SNOW LASTING TO AROUND 15Z OR 16Z ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IFR VISIBILITY AND BRIEF DROPS TO LIFR. WILL KEEP THE TREND OF KEEPING MVFR STRATUS AT KSUX THROUGH THE DAY...AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STAYS UP AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT. THEN TONIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE...WHICH MAY ACT TO BRING THIS AREA OF LEFTOVER STRATUS BACK NORTH. BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS THINK THIS WILL STAY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...SO REMOVED THE MENTION IN THE KHON TAF. HOWEVER WILL BRING THE MVFR STRATUS BACK INTO KFSD THIS EVENING...CLEARING LATER TONIGHT AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THOUGH....AS IT IS ALWAYS TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT THIS WINTER TIME STRATUS...AS MODELS TEND TO OVERDO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BUT FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO KEEP THE MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. ALSO COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AS THE WINDS PICK UP...BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHENARD LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
411 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 PERIOD OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR AND RAP...WENT AHEAD AND SLOWED DOWN THE ENDING TIMING A BIT. THINKING SNOW MOVES OUT OF SIOUX FALLS RIGHT AROUND 12Z...AND EXITS NORTHWEST IOWA CLOSER TO 14Z OR 15Z. STILL LOOKING AT AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING TWO INCHES. SNOW WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND MAY STILL BE IMPACTING THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF SIOUX FALLS...INTERSTATE 90 EAST OF SIOUX FALLS AND NORTHWEST IOWA DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...SO USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING IN THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR PUSH BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S OVER A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. EXPECTING A QUICK EVENING DROP IN TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP. THUS DID LOWER LOWS IN THE EAST WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS LIKELY. HOWEVER WILL THEN SEE RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WAVE...WITH 20S AND 30S COMMON BY MORNING. BEST FORCING WITH THIS WAVE STILL LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH...AND QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY. 925 MB WINDS ARE AROUND 40 KTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND 25 TO 35 KTS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. THUS SHOULD BE A BREEZY ONE AND MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH SEEM LIKELY. WITH THE RECENT SNOW...AM WORRIED ABOUT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW INTO THE GRIDS. QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER WE WILL NEED A HEADLINE. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...BUT THE ADDITIONAL NEW SNOW MAY HELP MAKE THINGS A BIT WORSE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS AND DECIDE IF ANY WINTER HEADLINES FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL BE NEEDED. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 THURSDAY STILL LOOKS MILD AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE BUT MODELS NOW COMING BACK AROUND TO A SLIGHTLY QUICKER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THURSDAY HAS BEEN A TOUGH DECISION ALL ALONG WITH VERY STANDARD DEVIATIONS IN THE MODELS SO WILL TEMPER THE COLDER SURGE AND WHAT WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER WINDS WITH SOME OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER. BEHIND THIS COLD SURGE IS A DECENT LITTLE WAVE AND EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. BACKED OFF ON THE THREAT FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION OR SLEET AS THE BULK OF THE FORCING SHOULD BE IN THE COLDER AIR AND NOW WITH THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER COLD AIR THE WARM LAYER ALOFT IS NOT AS PREVALENT. WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH HOWEVER AS STATED ABOVE AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT FLAKY WITH THIS COLD SURGE. THE COLD AIR LOCKS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WITH THE LOW LEVELS JUST A BIT COLDER THIS GO AROUND DROPPED LOWS AND HIGHS A TOUCH. IN THE OUTER PERIODS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WHAT SHOULD MAINLY BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO THREAT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE ON SATURDAY INCREASED POPS JUST A TOUCH AND DROPPED HIGHS DOWN JUST A LITTLE. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL STRONG AS THE MODELS IN THIS FAIRLY FAST FLOW AND SOMEWHAT TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ENVIRONMENT HAS A LOT OF ROOM FOR ERROR. AFTER THIS WARM AIR BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY BRINGING A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO REACH THE 40S OR BETTER. SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL HAVE THE HARDEST TIME WITH A LITTLE MORE SNOW COVER. COOLER AIR SURGES IN ON MONDAY BUT MIXY CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL YIELD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LITTLE MODEL DISCREPANCY COMES INTO PLAY ON TUESDAY WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STUBBORN ON LOCKING IN SOME COLDER AIR BUT IT HAS HAS OVERDONE THIS A BIT LATELY SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THINGS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014 BAND OF SNOW JUST WEST OF A KHON TO K9V9 LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG LIFT WITH THIS BAND...EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE WITH MOST AREAS SEEING SOME SNOW THROUGH 12Z. EXPECTED EVOLUTION IS THAT AS SNOW MOVES IN CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE...1 TO 2SM FOR VSBYS AND CIGS OF 1000 TO 2000 FT. EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND NORTH OF A KMHE TO KSPW LINE...INCLUDING KFSD...COULD SEE VSBYS FALL BELOW 1SM AND CIGS LESS THAN 1000 FT FOR BRIEF PERIODS. AFTER 2 OR 3 HOURS...SNOW SHOULD END WITH VSBYS RAPIDLY IMPROVING TO GREATER THAN 6 MILES. CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO RISE AS LOW CLOUDS TRAIL THE SNOWFALL FOR A BIT SUCH THAT BOTH KFSD AND KHON LIKELY WILL SEE MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE BECOMING VFR. FOR KSUX...THE RAPID APPROACH OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DECREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND EXPECT THAT THE BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER KSUX MEANING CIGS OF 1500 TO 2500 FEET FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT KSUX THROUGH 06Z AND THESE SAME CONDITIONS TO SPREAD NORTH INTO KFSD AND KHON AFTER 00Z. THERE IS A SMALL PROBABILITY THAT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSE AND THE MOISTURE IS FORCED INTO A SMALLER LAYER...LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP AND CIGS COULD FALL BELOW 1000 FT. GIVEN THAT THIS WOULD BE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF...DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHENARD LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...SCHUMACHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1131 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/ UPDATE... UPDATED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY. ALSO ADDED ALL WEATHER TYPES. DISCUSSION... LIGHT TO MODERATE MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WITHIN A DEFORMATION BAND ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. A STOUT WARM LAYER BETWEEN 5-6C WAS NOTED FROM 12Z BMX AND JAN SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING AND THIS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN ALOFT ABOVE A VERY COLD NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS HAS SET THE STAGE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING COLDER AIR ALOFT TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MORE SNOW TO MIX IN BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A WINTRY MIX OF ALL PRECIPITATION TYPES INCLUDING SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. DUE TO THE INCREASED ICE POTENTIAL...HAVE INCREASED ICE TOTALS TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA AND AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACROSS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS ALL WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. ICY ROADS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...HAZARDS...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ARE ALL UPDATED. PLEASE REMEMBER TO PASS ALONG ANY REPORTS OF SNOW OR ICE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS. JLH PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/ IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD BETTER CHANCES OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. BELIEVE THIS THREAT OF ICE ACCUMULATION WILL CARRY THROUGH NOON TODAY. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I-40 AND TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SHARP BACK WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME PRONOUNCED BY LATE MORNING...WITH THE MEMPHIS METRO LIKELY TO BE IN THIS TRANSITION ZONE. THE NAM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO BE LIGHTER IN QPF...THAN THE GFS AND EURO...WITH THE NAM KEEPING THE DEFINED BACK EDGE FURTHER EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE TAKEN A MORE HRRR/EURO/GFS BLEND WITH QPF AMOUNTS TIMING...AND LOCATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THESE MODELS INDICATE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE 8 AM TO 2 PM TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL HANG TOUGH IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREA. FORTUNATELY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...SO OVERALL WIND CHILLS WILL BE MILD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO TODAY...AS THEY MAY HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...HOLDING BACK AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT CAN ACCUMULATE. BASED ON HOPEFUL STORM REPORTS A FEW COUNTIES IN THE WARNING MAY HAVE TO BE DROPPED TO AN ADVISORY. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AFTER 5PM...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS THE FAR EAST COUNTIES BY 9PM. PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FALLEN SNOW MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SEND CLIPPER DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THE FIRST WILL SWING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS LIGHT...BUT IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MORE SEASONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON SATURDAY A FEW DEGREES WITH THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AND THE ADDED CLOUD COVER FROM THE SECOND DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE AREA. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY...AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS. THIS ENERGY WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...TRACKING IT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. STRONGER WAA AHEAD A COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S WITH WAA SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING ON MONDAY. HAVE ADDED THUNDER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WHICH MAY GENERATE A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER OUR SOUTH AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE SWINGS MORE NEUTRAL. JAB && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KJBR FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE OTHER TAFS SITES WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS RETURNING TO VFR LEVEL LATE TONIGHT. SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING. ARS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 30 24 47 34 / 80 0 10 10 MKL 30 19 46 32 / 80 0 10 10 JBR 29 20 42 30 / 30 0 10 10 TUP 32 24 48 32 / 100 20 10 10 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS. MO...NONE. MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN- CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA- QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-YALOBUSHA. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN- BENTON MS-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TIPPAH- TISHOMINGO-UNION. TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD- HENDERSON-HENRY-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER- HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1037 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 .UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO RAISE TEMPS ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION AS THEY HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED EXPECTED HIGHS. STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO LOWER TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES MADE. && .PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 950 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/ UPDATE... PER REPORTS RECEIVED OF SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING ACCUMULATING ICE DUE TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT TO REFLECT SOME ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION THRU TODAY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/ UPDATE...12Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWED A 1 TO 2 DEG WARM NOSE BTWN 925MB AND 850MB AND, BASED ON THE REPORTS OF IP AND ZR COMING IN FROM OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BELIEVE THIS SAME TEMP PROFILE IS PROBABLY VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING OVER MORE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE AS WELL. THE EXACT FUTURE EXISTENCE OF THIS WARM NOSE, THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. AM NOT YET READY TO INVEST VERY MUCH IN THE THE CONTINUED 925 WARMING FORECAST BY THE RUC THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND WOULD TEND TO THINK THAT PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THAT MILD, BUT VERY DRY, LAYER WILL EVENTUALLY COOL THE LAYER CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK. IN ADDITION, AFTER 925 FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, AS LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS GEORGIA, DO NOT KNOW EXACTLY WHY 925 TEMPS WOULD WARM. THUS, HAVE ADDED A WINTRY MIX INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING, BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT FURTHER JUDGE THINGS TO SEE HOW TO DEAL WITH PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IF, INDEED, THE WARM NOSE PERSISTS LONGER THAN EXPECTED, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EVENT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, BLV AMENDING PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS MORNING IS A PRUDENT AND SUFFICIENT STEP FOR NOW. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ011- 032>034-065-066-077>080. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TNZ061>064-075-093>095. && $$ 31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
950 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 .UPDATE... PER REPORTS RECEIVED OF SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING ACCUMULATING ICE DUE TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT TO REFLECT SOME ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION THRU TODAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/ UPDATE...12Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWED A 1 TO 2 DEG WARM NOSE BTWN 925MB AND 850MB AND, BASED ON THE REPORTS OF IP AND ZR COMING IN FROM OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BELIEVE THIS SAME TEMP PROFILE IS PROBABLY VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING OVER MORE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE AS WELL. THE EXACT FUTURE EXISTENCE OF THIS WARM NOSE, THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. AM NOT YET READY TO INVEST VERY MUCH IN THE THE CONTINUED 925 WARMING FORECAST BY THE RUC THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND WOULD TEND TO THINK THAT PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THAT MILD, BUT VERY DRY, LAYER WILL EVENTUALLY COOL THE LAYER CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK. IN ADDITION, AFTER 925 FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, AS LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS GEORGIA, DO NOT KNOW EXACTLY WHY 925 TEMPS WOULD WARM. THUS, HAVE ADDED A WINTRY MIX INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING, BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT FURTHER JUDGE THINGS TO SEE HOW TO DEAL WITH PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IF, INDEED, THE WARM NOSE PERSISTS LONGER THAN EXPECTED, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EVENT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, BLV AMENDING PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS MORNING IS A PRUDENT AND SUFFICIENT STEP FOR NOW. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ011- 032>034-065-066-077>080. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TNZ061>064-075-093>095. && $$ 31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
922 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 .UPDATE... UPDATED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY. ALSO ADDED ALL WEATHER TYPES. && .DISCUSSION... LIGHT TO MODERATE MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES WITHIN A DEFORMATION BAND ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. A STOUT WARM LAYER BETWEEN 5-6C WAS NOTED FROM 12Z BMX AND JAN SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING AND THIS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN ALOFT ABOVE A VERY COLD NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS HAS SET THE STAGE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING COLDER AIR ALOFT TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MORE SNOW TO MIX IN BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A WINTRY MIX OF ALL PRECIPITATION TYPES INCLUDING SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. DUE TO THE INCREASED ICE POTENTIAL...HAVE INCREASED ICE TOTALS TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA AND AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACROSS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HAZAROUS TRAVEL SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS ALL WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. ICY ROADS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...HAZARDS...AND HAZAROUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ARE ALL UPDATED. PLEASE REMEMBER TO PASS ALONG ANY REPORTS OF SNOW OR ICE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS. JLH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/ IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD BETTER CHANCES OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. BELIEVE THIS THREAT OF ICE ACCUMULATION WILL CARRY THROUGH NOON TODAY. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I-40 AND TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SHARP BACK WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME PRONOUNCED BY LATE MORNING...WITH THE MEMPHIS METRO LIKELY TO BE IN THIS TRANSITION ZONE. THE NAM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO BE LIGHTER IN QPF...THAN THE GFS AND EURO...WITH THE NAM KEEPING THE DEFINED BACK EDGE FURTHER EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE TAKEN A MORE HRRR/EURO/GFS BLEND WITH QPF AMOUNTS TIMING...AND LOCATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THESE MODELS INDICATE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE 8 AM TO 2 PM TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL HANG TOUGH IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREA. FORTUNATELY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...SO OVERALL WINDCHILLS WILL BE MILD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO TODAY...AS THEY MAY HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...HOLDING BACK AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT CAN ACCUMULATE. BASED ON HOPEFUL STORM REPORTS A FEW COUNTIES IN THE WARNING MAY HAVE TO BE DROPPED TO AN ADVISORY. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AFTER 5PM...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS THE FAR EAST COUNTIES BY 9PM. PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FALLEN SNOW MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SEND CLIPPER DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THE FIRST WILL SWING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS LIGHT...BUT IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MORE SEASONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON SATURDAY A FEW DEGREES WITH THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AND THE ADDED CLOUD COVER FROM THE SECOND DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE AREA. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY...AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS. THIS ENERGY WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...TRACKING IT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. STRONGER WAA AHEAD A COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S WITH WAA SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING ON MONDAY. HAVE ADDED THUNDER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WHICH MAY GENERATE A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER OUR SOUTH AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE SWINGS MORE NEUTRAL. JAB && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF SET LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. MAIN BAND CURRENTLY STRETCHES ALONG TN/MS BORDER. THUS FAR VSBYS HAVE NOT BEEN REDUCED AT KMEM BUT MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED IN. LOOKING AT LATEST MODELS...KEEP MOST OF PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST OF KMEM THUS THINKING WHEN THIS BAND MOVES OUT BY 16Z THAT IT MIGHT BE IT FOR PRECIP AT KMEM. KTUP WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES ALTHOUGH THEY ARE IN A DRY SLOT RIGHT NOW. EXPECT ADDITIONAL BANDS TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 15-20Z. NNE WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 8-10 KTS WILL BECOME N AT 3-5 KTS OVERNIGHT. KRM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 30 24 47 34 / 80 0 10 10 MKL 30 19 46 32 / 80 0 10 10 JBR 29 20 42 30 / 30 0 10 10 TUP 32 24 48 32 / 100 20 10 10 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS. MO...NONE. MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN- CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA- QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-YALOBUSHA. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN- BENTON MS-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TIPPAH- TISHOMINGO-UNION. TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD- HENDERSON-HENRY-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER- HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
631 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 .UPDATE...12Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWED A 1 TO 2 DEG WARM NOSE BTWN 925MB AND 850MB AND, BASED ON THE REPORTS OF IP AND ZR COMING IN FROM OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BELIEVE THIS SAME TEMP PROFILE IS PROBABLY VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING OVER MORE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE AS WELL. THE EXACT FUTURE EXISTENCE OF THIS WARM NOSE, THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. AM NOT YET READY TO INVEST VERY MUCH IN THE THE CONTINUED 925 WARMING FORECAST BY THE RUC THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND WOULD TEND TO THINK THAT PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THAT MILD, BUT VERY DRY, LAYER WILL EVENTUALLY COOL THE LAYER CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK. IN ADDITION, AFTER 925 FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, AS LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS GEORGIA, DO NOT KNOW EXACTLY WHY 925 TEMPS WOULD WARM. THUS, HAVE ADDED A WINTRY MIX INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING, BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT FURTHER JUDGE THINGS TO SEE HOW TO DEAL WITH PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IF, INDEED, THE WARM NOSE PERSISTS LONGER THAN EXPECTED, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EVENT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, BLV AMENDING PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS MORNING IS A PRUDENT AND SUFFICIENT STEP FOR NOW. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ011- 032>034-065-066-077>080. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TNZ061>064-075-093>095. && $$ 19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
626 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 .UPDATE.. UPDATED TO ADD CRITTENDON COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND TO TAKE A FEW NORTH MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES OUT OF THE WARNING AND PLACE THEM IN THE ADVISORY. && .DISCUSSION... BASED ON RADAR TRENDS MORNING BAND IN THE MEMPHIS METRO EXTENDING BACK INTO CRITTENDON COUNTY...SO HAVE ADDED THEM TO THE ADVISORY. ALSO LATEST HRRR MODEL TRENDS AND 06Z MODEL RUNS THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL INITIALIZE LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE COUNTIES OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI STILL SEEING UP TO THREE INCHES OF SNOWFALL...BUT LAFAYETTE...YALOBUSHA...TALLAHATCHIE...CALHOUN...CHICKASAW...AND MONROE COUNTIES LESSER AMOUNTS ARE NOW EXPECTED. BASED OFF LATEST REGIONAL UPPER AIR DATA SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREAS. JAB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/ DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/ IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD BETTER CHANCES OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. BELIEVE THIS THREAT OF ICE ACCUMULATION WILL CARRY THROUGH NOON TODAY. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I-40 AND TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SHARP BACK WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME PRONOUNCED BY LATE MORNING...WITH THE MEMPHIS METRO LIKELY TO BE IN THIS TRANSITION ZONE. THE NAM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO BE LIGHTER IN QPF...THAN THE GFS AND EURO...WITH THE NAM KEEPING THE DEFINED BACK EDGE FURTHER EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE TAKEN A MORE HRRR/EURO/GFS BLEND WITH QPF AMOUNTS TIMING...AND LOCATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THESE MODELS INDICATE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE 8 AM TO 2 PM TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL HANG TOUGH IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREA. FORTUNATELY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...SO OVERALL WINDCHILLS WILL BE MILD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO TODAY...AS THEY MAY HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...HOLDING BACK AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT CAN ACCUMULATE. BASED ON HOPEFUL STORM REPORTS A FEW COUNTIES IN THE WARNING MAY HAVE TO BE DROPPED TO AN ADVISORY. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AFTER 5PM...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS THE FAR EAST COUNTIES BY 9PM. PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FALLEN SNOW MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SEND CLIPPER DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THE FIRST WILL SWING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS LIGHT...BUT IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MORE SEASONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON SATURDAY A FEW DEGREES WITH THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AND THE ADDED CLOUD COVER FROM THE SECOND DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE AREA. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY...AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS. THIS ENERGY WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...TRACKING IT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. STRONGER WAA AHEAD A COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S WITH WAA SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING ON MONDAY. HAVE ADDED THUNDER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH .WHICH MAY GENERATE A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER OUR SOUTH AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE SWINGS MORE NEUTRAL. JAB && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF SET LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. MAIN BAND CURRENTLY STRETCHES ALONG TN/MS BORDER. THUS FAR VSBYS HAVE NOT BEEN REDUCED AT KMEM BUT MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED IN. LOOKING AT LATEST MODELS...KEEP MOST OF PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST OF KMEM THUS THINKING WHEN THIS BAND MOVES OUT BY 16Z THAT IT MIGHT BE IT FOR PRECIP AT KMEM. KTUP WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES ALTHOUGH THEY ARE IN A DRY SLOT RIGHT NOW. EXPECT ADDITIONAL BANDS TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 15-20Z. NNE WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 8-10 KTS WILL BECOME N AT 3-5 KTS OVERNIGHT. KRM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 31 24 47 34 / 70 0 10 10 MKL 31 19 46 32 / 80 0 10 10 JBR 29 20 42 30 / 10 0 10 10 TUP 35 24 48 32 / 100 20 10 10 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN. MO...NONE. MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN- CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA- QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-YALOBUSHA. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN- BENTON MS-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TIPPAH- TISHOMINGO-UNION. TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-SHELBY- TIPTON. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER- HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
533 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/ IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD BETTER CHANCES OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. BELIEVE THIS THREAT OF ICE ACCUMULATION WILL CARRY THROUGH NOON TODAY. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I-40 AND TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SHARP BACK WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME PRONOUNCED BY LATE MORNING...WITH THE MEMPHIS METRO LIKELY TO BE IN THIS TRANSITION ZONE. THE NAM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO BE LIGHTER IN QPF...THAN THE GFS AND EURO...WITH THE NAM KEEPING THE DEFINED BACK EDGE FURTHER EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE TAKEN A MORE HRRR/EURO/GFS BLEND WITH QPF AMOUNTS TIMING...AND LOCATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THESE MODELS INDICATE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE 8 AM TO 2 PM TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL HANG TOUGH IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREA. FORTUNATELY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...SO OVERALL WINDCHILLS WILL BE MILD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO TODAY...AS THEY MAY HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...HOLDING BACK AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT CAN ACCUMULATE. BASED ON HOPEFUL STORM REPORTS A FEW COUNTIES IN THE WARNING MAY HAVE TO BE DROPPED TO AN ADVISORY. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AFTER 5PM...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS THE FAR EAST COUNTIES BY 9PM. PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FALLEN SNOW MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SEND CLIPPER DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THE FIRST WILL SWING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS LIGHT...BUT IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MORE SEASONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON SATURDAY A FEW DEGREES WITH THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AND THE ADDED CLOUD COVER FROM THE SECOND DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE AREA. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY...AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS. THIS ENERGY WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...TRACKING IT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. STRONGER WAA AHEAD A COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S WITH WAA SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING ON MONDAY. HAVE ADDED THUNDER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ..WHICH MAY GENERATE A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER OUR SOUTH AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE SWINGS MORE NEUTRAL. JAB && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF SET LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. MAIN BAND CURRENTLY STRETCHES ALONG TN/MS BORDER. THUS FAR VSBYS HAVE NOT BEEN REDUCED AT KMEM BUT MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED IN. LOOKING AT LATEST MODELS...KEEP MOST OF PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST OF KMEM THUS THINKING WHEN THIS BAND MOVES OUT BY 16Z THAT IT MIGHT BE IT FOR PRECIP AT KMEM. KTUP WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES ALTHOUGH THEY ARE IN A DRY SLOT RIGHT NOW. EXPECT ADDITIONAL BANDS TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 15-20Z. NNE WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 8-10 KTS WILL BECOME N AT 3-5 KTS OVERNIGHT. KRM && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 33 24 47 34 / 70 0 10 10 MKL 33 19 46 32 / 60 0 10 10 JBR 32 20 42 30 / 10 0 10 10 TUP 36 24 48 32 / 100 20 10 10 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA- DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TUNICA. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN- BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS- MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO- UNION-YALOBUSHA. TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-SHELBY- TIPTON. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER- HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
315 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 .DISCUSSION... IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD BETTER CHANCES OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. BELIEVE THIS THREAT OF ICE ACCUMULATION WILL CARRY THROUGH NOON TODAY. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I-40 AND TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SHARP BACK WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME PRONOUNCED BY LATE MORNING...WITH THE MEMPHIS METRO LIKELY TO BE IN THIS TRANSITION ZONE. THE NAM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO BE LIGHTER IN QPF...THAN THE GFS AND EURO...WITH THE NAM KEEPING THE DEFINED BACK EDGE FURTHER EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE TAKEN A MORE HRRR/EURO/GFS BLEND WITH QPF AMOUNTS TIMING...AND LOCATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THESE MODELS INDICATE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE 8 AM TO 2 PM TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL HANG TOUGH IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREA. FORTUNATELY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...SO OVERALL WINDCHILLS WILL BE MILD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO TODAY...AS THEY MAY HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...HOLDING BACK AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT CAN ACCUMULATE. BASED ON HOPEFUL STORM REPORTS A FEW COUNTIES IN THE WARNING MAY HAVE TO BE DROPPED TO AN ADVISORY. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AFTER 5PM...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS THE FAR EAST COUNTIES BY 9PM. PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FALLEN SNOW MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SEND CLIPPER DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THE FIRST WILL SWING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS LIGHT...BUT IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MORE SEASONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON SATURDAY A FEW DEGREES WITH THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AND THE ADDED CLOUD COVER FROM THE SECOND DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE AREA. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY...AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS. THIS ENERGY WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...TRACKING IT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. STRONGER WAA AHEAD A COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S WITH WAA SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING ON MONDAY. HAVE ADDED THUNDER AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ...WHICH MAY GENERATE A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER OUR SOUTH AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE SWINGS MORE NEUTRAL. JAB && .AVIATION... FOR 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR JONESBORO FOR FORECAST PERIOD. MEMPHIS AND JACKSON...TENNESSEE...WILL BE VFR WITH LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL START EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR TUPELO...RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION AROUND STATION...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START IN A HOUR OR SO...PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW. THEN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITES WILL LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING. TLSJR && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 33 24 47 34 / 70 0 10 10 MKL 33 19 46 32 / 60 0 10 10 JBR 32 20 42 30 / 10 0 10 10 TUP 36 24 48 32 / 100 20 10 10 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA- DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TUNICA. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN- BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS- MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TALLAHATCHIE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO- UNION-YALOBUSHA. TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-SHELBY- TIPTON. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER- HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1129 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014 .UPDATE... TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE MID-STATE. TOOK LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE REST OF TONIGHT`S FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. SNOW MAY SNEAK INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA BEFORE 12Z...HOWEVER POPS EXPECTED TO REALLY SPIKE SOUTH OF I-40 AFTER 12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO FALL AS SNOW THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z TEMPERATURES BECOME AN ISSUE AS THE MET AND MOS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR CSV AND BNA. THIS DOESN`T MEAN SNOW WON`T FALL...MAY JUST SLOW DOWN ACCUMULATION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WARMER TEMPS WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE THEY HAVE DRIER AIR AND BETTER CHANCES OF SUNSHINE...SO ADDED A LITTLE RAIN/SNOW MIX ON NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT ADJUSTING SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TOMORROW. STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF THE EXTREME EASTERN BOUNDARY OF OUR CWA TO SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS AROUND 4 INCHES. EVEN THE NAM WHICH CONTINUES TO BE THE DRIEST OF THE MODELS SHOWS TOTALS BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/ UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST AVIATION... ..FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY... LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING TO INTERACT ALONG GULF COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE AS INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOWS SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING ALONG GULF COAST. PRECIP HAS BROKEN OUT THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND ACROSS LOUISIANA AND INTO MISSISSIPPI AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT. HRRR HAS WINTRY PRECIP SKIRTING SOUTHERN BORDER AROUND 12Z WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE MID STATE BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOWS OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE MORE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE PLATEAU WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERWESTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE INCLUDING NASHVILLE WILL BE ON THE OUTER FRINGE OF THE SNOW AREA BUT UP TO ONE HALF INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE. THINK CLARKSVILLE COULD SEE A DUSTING WITH CROSSVILLE GETTING A COUPLE OF INCHES AND POSSIBLY THREE BEFORE ENDING. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-032>034-065-066-077>080. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TNZ061>064-075-093>095. && $$ 11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/ SHORT TERM... WARMER TODAY BY ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGREES THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS...THIS DESPITE ANOTHER COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN LARGE PART DUE TO NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE RETURNING TO THE SRN PLAINS...BUT ALSO TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES AS MUCH OF THE TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA IS REPLACED BY FLAT RIDGING. STILL...WILL FAVOR LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR AFTN HIGHS. SFC WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS ON THE RELATIVELY MILD SIDE GIVEN RECENT TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. OF NOTE IN THE NEAR TERM IS SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. HRRR SHOWING SOME SMALL PATCHES OF LOWER VSBY BTWN 06Z AND 18Z. MESONET OBS SHOWING SOME SCATTERED DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR ZERO BUT WITH VEERING WINDS TO THE SW SHOULD SEE SOME MODEST DRY ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA OF INTEREST...SO ATTM NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED TO INSERT A MENTION INTO THE FCST. LONG TERM... A QUIET AND UNSEASONABLY MILD PATTERN IS STILL A GUARANTEE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. EVEN THE HANDFUL OF COLD FRONTS THAT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION /COURTESY OF SHALLOW AND TROUGHS GRAZING THE REGION/ SHOW NO ABILITY TO PUSH OUR HIGHS BLO CLIMO OR EVEN GENERATE ANY LOW CLOUDS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE FIRST OF THESE FRONTS ARRIVES FRIDAY...WITH A SECOND CONDITIONAL FROPA SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A THIRD COME MONDAY. ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS JUST HOW MUCH TEMPS WILL RAMP UP AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS UNDER DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. FEEL MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN BEING TOO GENEROUS WITH DEWPOINTS /PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND/...SO HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT WHICH RESULTS IN VERY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. ADD TO THIS 15-20 MPH WINDS AND A FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE SETTING FOOT IN THE RING. ONLY BY MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK DOES THIS ZONAL FLOW REGIME BEGIN AMPLIFYING...BUT UNFORTUNATELY IN THE FORM OF L/W TROUGHING TO OUR W-NW WHICH HINTS AT INCREASINGLY WINDY AND DUSTY CONDITIONS FOR WEST TEXAS. SOME GOMEX MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD BY THIS TIME...THOUGH SHOULD BE SWEPT TO OUR EAST UNLESS THE SWLY UPPER FLOW CAN TREND MORE MERIDIONAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 55 31 71 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 TULIA 50 30 68 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 52 30 71 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 56 32 73 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 55 31 73 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 DENVER CITY 57 32 72 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 57 33 74 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 49 27 64 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 SPUR 52 31 70 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 50 30 68 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 04/99/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
512 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2014 .DISCUSSION... The latest Aviation Discussion is included below. && .AVIATION... MVFR visibilities in fog will persist at KCNM and KHOB until at least 12/14Z before lifting. Fog will be much more spotty near the other TAF sites, so will not take them down. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail areawide through the day. Aside from high clouds streaming over the region, a cold front will move into the area with little fanfare, but will result in winds veering 360 degrees in the next 24 hours. 67 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2014/ DISCUSSION... Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through Saturday before turning zonal Sunday through the middle of next week. In the short term, areas of dense freezing fog continue to develop across the extreme eastern Permian Basin. The RUC13 model is handling the surface relative humidity the best in these locations in the short term. We will issue a freezing fog advisory through mid morning for the extreme eastern Permian Basin. Some freezing fog is also occurring across the southeast New Mexico plains and northwest Permian Basin but the approach of high clouds should keep the fog from becoming dense their. After the fog burns off this morning temperatures will warm to near normal values this afternoon due to a decent amount of sunshine and warming 850 millibar temperatures. A very warm and dry day is expected Thursday due to a surface lee trough and low level thermal ridging and downslope developing. The northwest flow aloft will drive a dry cold front through the forecast area late Thursday night and Friday. High temperatures will be knocked back to near normal values Friday north of the Pecos river but remain above normal south and west of the Pecos. Another surface lee trough/low is expected to develop Saturday and Sunday with much above normal temperatures developing again in the low level thermal ridging and downslope flow. A weak upper level trough will move across the plains and drive a weak and dry cold front through the forecast area Monday. Temperatures will still remain well above normal Monday through next Wednesday with no precipitation expected. FIRE WEATHER... Near normal temperatures will prevail today after a chilly start. Although minimum afternoon rh/s could drop to near 15 percent around the Presidio Valley and Big Bend Region, 20 foot winds will remain below 20 mph. Recovery tonight will be fair over the higher terrain, but good or better elsewhere. Near critical fire weather conditions will be possible Thursday afternoon, especially in and near the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where 20 foot wind speeds will be stronger. Will not issue a fire weather watch at this time since conditions appear too marginal. Another cold front will move through most of the area Friday. With rh/s dropping to near 15 percent near the Rio Grande River. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ANDREWS TX 59 36 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 BIG SPRING TX 59 33 75 39 / 0 0 0 0 CARLSBAD NM 60 31 82 38 / 0 0 0 0 DRYDEN TX 68 39 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 FORT STOCKTON TX 69 45 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 GUADALUPE PASS TX 56 42 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 HOBBS NM 59 33 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 MARFA TX 64 26 74 33 / 0 0 0 0 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 60 34 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 ODESSA TX 61 36 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 WINK TX 65 31 79 37 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...Reagan... Scurry. && $$ 67/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
510 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MINOR POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT FOG THROUGH ABOUT 14Z BUT APPEARS ENOUGH DRY ADVECTION ON LIGHT SW WINDS TO KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY 15Z WITH NORTH WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY POST-FRONT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/ SHORT TERM... WARMER TODAY BY ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGREES THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS...THIS DESPITE ANOTHER COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN LARGE PART DUE TO NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE RETURNING TO THE SRN PLAINS...BUT ALSO TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES AS MUCH OF THE TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA IS REPLACED BY FLAT RIDGING. STILL...WILL FAVOR LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR AFTN HIGHS. SFC WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS ON THE RELATIVELY MILD SIDE GIVEN RECENT TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. OF NOTE IN THE NEAR TERM IS SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. HRRR SHOWING SOME SMALL PATCHES OF LOWER VSBY BTWN 06Z AND 18Z. MESONET OBS SHOWING SOME SCATTERED DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR ZERO BUT WITH VEERING WINDS TO THE SW SHOULD SEE SOME MODEST DRY ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA OF INTEREST...SO ATTM NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED TO INSERT A MENTION INTO THE FCST. LONG TERM... A QUIET AND UNSEASONABLY MILD PATTERN IS STILL A GUARANTEE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. EVEN THE HANDFUL OF COLD FRONTS THAT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION /COURTESY OF SHALLOW AND TROUGHS GRAZING THE REGION/ SHOW NO ABILITY TO PUSH OUR HIGHS BLO CLIMO OR EVEN GENERATE ANY LOW CLOUDS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE FIRST OF THESE FRONTS ARRIVES FRIDAY...WITH A SECOND CONDITIONAL FROPA SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A THIRD COME MONDAY. ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS JUST HOW MUCH TEMPS WILL RAMP UP AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS UNDER DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. FEEL MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN BEING TOO GENEROUS WITH DEWPOINTS /PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND/...SO HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT WHICH RESULTS IN VERY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. ADD TO THIS 15-20 MPH WINDS AND A FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE SETTING FOOT IN THE RING. ONLY BY MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK DOES THIS ZONAL FLOW REGIME BEGIN AMPLIFYING...BUT UNFORTUNATELY IN THE FORM OF L/W TROUGHING TO OUR W-NW WHICH HINTS AT INCREASINGLY WINDY AND DUSTY CONDITIONS FOR WEST TEXAS. SOME GOMEX MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD BY THIS TIME...THOUGH SHOULD BE SWEPT TO OUR EAST UNLESS THE SWLY UPPER FLOW CAN TREND MORE MERIDIONAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 55 31 71 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 TULIA 50 30 68 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 52 30 71 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 56 32 73 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 55 31 72 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 DENVER CITY 57 32 72 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 57 33 74 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 49 27 64 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 SPUR 52 31 70 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 50 30 68 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 07/93/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
413 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2014 .DISCUSSION... Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through Saturday before turning zonal Sunday through the middle of next week. In the short term, areas of dense freezing fog continue to develop across the extreme eastern Permian Basin. The RUC13 model is handling the surface relative humidity the best in these locations in the short term. We will issue a freezing fog advisory through mid morning for the extreme eastern Permian Basin. Some freezing fog is also occurring across the southeast New Mexico plains and northwest Permian Basin but the approach of high clouds should keep the fog from becoming dense their. After the fog burns off this morning temperatures will warm to near normal values this afternoon due to a decent amount of sunshine and warming 850 millibar temperatures. A very warm and dry day is expected Thursday due to a surface lee trough and low level thermal ridging and downslope developing. The northwest flow aloft will drive a dry cold front through the forecast area late Thursday night and Friday. High temperatures will be knocked back to near normal values Friday north of the Pecos river but remain above normal south and west of the Pecos. Another surface lee trough/low is expected to develop Saturday and Sunday with much above normal temperatures developing again in the low level thermal ridging and downslope flow. A weak upper level trough will move across the plains and drive a weak and dry cold front through the forecast area Monday. Temperatures will still remain well above normal Monday through next Wednesday with no precipitation expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Near normal temperatures will prevail today after a chilly start. Although minimum afternoon rh/s could drop to near 15 percent around the Presidio Valley and Big Bend Region, 20 foot winds will remain below 20 mph. Recovery tonight will be fair over the higher terrain, but good or better elsewhere. Near critical fire weather conditions will be possible Thursday afternoon, especially in and near the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where 20 foot wind speeds will be stronger. Will not issue a fire weather watch at this time since conditions appear too marginal. Another cold front will move through most of the area Friday. With rh/s dropping to near 15 percent near the Rio Grande River. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ANDREWS TX 59 36 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 BIG SPRING TX 59 33 75 39 / 0 0 0 0 CARLSBAD NM 60 31 82 38 / 0 0 0 0 DRYDEN TX 68 39 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 FORT STOCKTON TX 69 45 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 GUADALUPE PASS TX 56 42 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 HOBBS NM 59 33 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 MARFA TX 64 26 74 33 / 0 0 0 0 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 60 34 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 ODESSA TX 61 36 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 WINK TX 65 31 79 37 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...Reagan... Scurry. && $$ 67/12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
353 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 .SHORT TERM... WARMER TODAY BY ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGREES THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS...THIS DESPITE ANOTHER COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN LARGE PART DUE TO NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE RETURNING TO THE SRN PLAINS...BUT ALSO TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES AS MUCH OF THE TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA IS REPLACED BY FLAT RIDGING. STILL...WILL FAVOR LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR AFTN HIGHS. SFC WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SW OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS ON THE RELATIVELY MILD SIDE GIVEN RECENT TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. OF NOTE IN THE NEAR TERM IS SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. HRRR SHOWING SOME SMALL PATCHES OF LOWER VSBY BTWN 06Z AND 18Z. MESONET OBS SHOWING SOME SCATTERED DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR ZERO BUT WITH VEERING WINDS TO THE SW SHOULD SEE SOME MODEST DRY ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA OF INTEREST...SO ATTM NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED TO INSERT A MENTION INTO THE FCST. && .LONG TERM... A QUIET AND UNSEASONABLY MILD PATTERN IS STILL A GUARANTEE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. EVEN THE HANDFUL OF COLD FRONTS THAT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION /COURTESY OF SHALLOW AND TROUGHS GRAZING THE REGION/ SHOW NO ABILITY TO PUSH OUR HIGHS BLO CLIMO OR EVEN GENERATE ANY LOW CLOUDS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE FIRST OF THESE FRONTS ARRIVES FRIDAY...WITH A SECOND CONDITIONAL FROPA SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A THIRD COME MONDAY. ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS JUST HOW MUCH TEMPS WILL RAMP UP AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS UNDER DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. FEEL MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN BEING TOO GENEROUS WITH DEWPOINTS /PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND/...SO HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT WHICH RESULTS IN VERY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. ADD TO THIS 15-20 MPH WINDS AND A FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE SETTING FOOT IN THE RING. ONLY BY MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK DOES THIS ZONAL FLOW REGIME BEGIN AMPLIFYING...BUT UNFORTUNATELY IN THE FORM OF L/W TROUGHING TO OUR W-NW WHICH HINTS AT INCREASINGLY WINDY AND DUSTY CONDITIONS FOR WEST TEXAS. SOME GOMEX MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD BY THIS TIME...THOUGH SHOULD BE SWEPT TO OUR EAST UNLESS THE SWLY UPPER FLOW CAN TREND MORE MERIDIONAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 55 31 71 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 TULIA 50 30 68 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 52 30 71 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 56 32 73 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 55 31 72 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 DENVER CITY 57 32 72 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 57 33 74 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 49 27 64 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 SPUR 52 31 70 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 50 30 68 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 07/93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1141 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/ Low clouds are having a hard time clearing out of our area late tonight, and are hanging on much longer than guidance has suggested. Will keep MVFR to intermittent IFR conditions going through most of the overnight hours at all sites. These low clouds are still expected to make slow progress eastward throughout the night. And if they do, and skies clear, temperatures would quickly cool, and could possible lead to fog, so have also continued to carry a TEMPO for fog around sunrise. Low clouds and fog will quickly clear out before 18Z. Light and variable winds overnight will turn northwest at around 10 knots by midday Wednesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/ DISCUSSION... Per GOES satellite imagery, the back edge of the low cloud field at 7 PM extends from near Lubbock to Lamesa to just west of Big Lake, and south across western Crockett County. The clearing has been advancing to the east, but has slowed down. The NAM and GFS do not have a good handle on the westward extent of this low cloud field. The latest RUC13 model shows a halt in the eastward clearing this evening, with the low cloud cover persisting across most if not all of our area until at least 3 AM, and then has boundary layer moisture beginning to decrease across our western counties after 3 AM. For now, going with a scenario of gradual clearing from west to east tonight. If clearing does occur, some light fog could develop. We have patchy freezing fog mentioned after Midnight. A forecast update was made to bring current sky condition and temperatures in line with recent trends, and to delay the clearing tonight. Also made a few tweaks to overnight lows, as the current temperature at Sweetwater was just a degree above the forecast low. Will monitor and make any updates as needed tonight. 19 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/ DISCUSSION... The Winter Weather Advisory will be allowed to expire at 6 PM this evening as precipitation has ended across the area, and visibilities are not rising across the area as well. However, roads will remain very slick and hazardous throughout the night tonight as some ice remained on the roads all day, and any melting that did occur earlier today will likely refreeze overnight, resulting in continued very hazardous travel conditions across the area. Also, see the 00Z aviation discussion below. 20 AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ Low end MVFR to high end IFR ceilings will continue to affect area TAFS through the next 3 to 6 hours this evening. Clearing is expected to take place later tonight, and the clearing line can be seen moving east toward our TAF sites, but it is still several hours away at this point. Later tonight, due to clear skies, and cooling temperatures, there is a possibility of some light fog developing, so have inserted a TEMPO for 3SM BR towards sunrise tomorrow morning. By 9 AM, the area should be free of low ceilings or visibility obstructions for the rest of the TAF period through tomorrow evening. West winds of less than 10 knots will develop by late morning. 20 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Wednesday) Temperatures across most of the West Central Texas this afternoon remain in the 20s. Extensive stratus continues, which has helped to keep temperatures from rising very much. Areas of freezing drizzle, freezing fog and some light sleet continue across much of the region, and is forecast to steadily shift east this evening. Skies will clear from west to east, with most areas becoming partly cloudy to clear by midnight. In the meantime, surface high pressure will settle across the area, with winds becoming light. Light winds, clear skies, and dewpoint temperatures in the lower 20s will result in ideal radiational cooling conditions. A very cold morning is forecast, with lows generally in the lower to mid 20s. I would not be surprised to see a few low lying locations or river valleys drop into the upper teens. In addition, as temperatures drop to near the dewpoint temperature, and winds remain light, areas of freezing fog could develop. I have included patchy freezing fog in the grids for now, and depending on trends tonight, a freezing fog advisory may be needed if the fog becomes more widespread than currently forecast. Residents are urged to remain cautious overnight as any ice that has melted, will likely refreeze as temperatures remain in the 20s. Any fog that does form during the early morning hours will begin to dissipate by 9 am, with temperatures rising above freezing by late morning. This should allow for improving road conditions by mid to late morning. The raw start to the morning, will lead to a very nice afternoon, with highs generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s. LONG TERM... (Thursday through early next week) Once we get past the current storm system, all quiet for the next week. Main upper level system shifts into the Southeast US, leaving the Southern Plains in northwest flow into the weekend. This is a dry pattern in the cool season, and see nothing to suggest anything different this time around. Surface high pressure shifts east as well, so south and southwest flow and lots of sun will lead to much warmer temperatures. Models suggest that we will pushing the 80 degree mark for much of the area over the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 21 54 34 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 22 60 33 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Junction 22 60 32 70 39 / 5 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
950 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014 .UPDATE... EXTENDED TIME OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA UNTIL 06Z WHEN DCVA FROM SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE EAST OF FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO DIE DOWN TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT AS TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND SURFACE LOW RELAXES AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW IS ABSORBED BY DEEPENING LOW OFF THE EAST COAST...THOUGH WILL STILL SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST. BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TO REACH THE DELLS...MADISON AND JANESVILLE AROUND 1 AM...FOND DU LAC...WAUKESHA AND SALEM AROUND 3 AM...AND CLEARING THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM WITH AREAS FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO SHEBOYGAN THE LAST TO CLEAR. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/... ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN AND KMKE BY 06Z. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL EASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE EAST AND AROUND 10 KNOTS WEST OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CLEAR KMSN AROUND 07Z...KUES AROUND 08Z...KENW BY 11Z AND HOLD IN KMKE UNTIL BETWEEN 11Z AND 1130Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO CLIP SRN WI FROM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NO CHANGE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA LAKESHORE SITES ALREADY GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND REST OF NEARSHORE TO INCREASE TO CRITERIA AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEPARTING LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SHEBOYGAN AND MILWAUKEE INDICATE SOME MIXING UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS UNTIL 15Z OR 16Z SO LATER SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE EXTENSION AFTER LOOKING AT ALL OF 00Z DATA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS FOR PATCHY FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. IR TEMPERATURE ENHANCEMENT AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED ICE FALLING INTO THE CLOUD LAYER AT FIRST. SHEAR NEAR THE TOP OF THE LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE OUT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE IF TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING. OTHERWISE...STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY SHSN EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF SRN WI. A BRISK NIGHT LIES AHEAD WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISE OF 3 TO 5 MB AFFECTING THE AREA THIS EVENING. WILL BE INCREASING PREVAILING WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THE EVENING HOURS TO 15 TO 25 MPH...DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE RISE AREA SLIDES EAST. WITH FRESH FALLEN SNOW...WL ADD PATCHY BLOWING SNOW FOR THE EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 25 MPH. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. 4KM NCEP WRF-NMM HAS DECREASING COLUMN CONDENSATE LATER IN THE EVENING...HOWEVER MORE MID-HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ROLL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM. 85H TEMPS FALL BACK TO AROUND 10C RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIPPING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MOST LOCATIONS. FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN MT REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FLURRIES MAY NEAR SOUTHWEST CWA BORDER DURING THE MORNING BUT THINKING SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...COLD AIR OVER SOUTHERN WI REINFORCED BUT SMALL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND SHORT WAVE. HENCE DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-FEBRUARY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A SURFACE RIDGE WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR FRI NT WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE DAKOTAS. A CONSENSUS OF MODELS HAS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAKENING SFC LOW TRACKING TO CENTRAL IA BY 00Z SUN AND BECOMING A BROAD AND WEAK LOW BY 12Z SUN OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST LIFT AND QPF IS OVER THE SW CWA WITH WEAKENING LIFT AND LOWER QPF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SEWD. LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...FRONTOGENESIS AIDED BY PVA ALOFT WILL START THE SNOW MAINLY SAT AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE SNOW ACCUM FORECAST RANGES FROM 0.5-1.0 INCHES OVER EAST CENTRAL WI TO 2 INCHES SW OF MADISON. MORE SNOW WOULD OCCUR IF THE SYSTEM WEAKENING IS DELAYED. ANOTHER SFC RIDGE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER WI FOR SUN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG TERM... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM A BROAD AND MORE ZONAL JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK AND THEN TRANSITION TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT AS A POLAR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WRN USA. THUS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL AFFECT SRN WI MAINLY ON MONDAY WITH SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A WARM LAYER ALOFT AND RESULTANT MIXED PCPN INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN. SWLY WINDS AND MILDER TEMPS WILL FOLLOW FOR MON NT INTO TUE NT. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS THEN POSSIBLE VIA THE ECMWF FOR WED NT INTO THU NT FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS NEWD TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WOULD MAINTAIN MILD TEMPS WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN...HOWEVER STILL MENTIONED SOME SNOW AS WELL GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL USHER PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING. TOTAL COLUMN CONDENSATE DECREASES OVERNIGHT HOWEVER LINGERING THERMAL TROF AND WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT AND WILL MOST LIKELY BRING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING INTO TAF SITES DURING THE NIGHT. MARINE... ASSUMING ICE STILL COVERS MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE WAVE ACTION. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND CDFNT PASSING ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS STRENGTHENING A BIT OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. HENCE WL POST SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...REM TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1140 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 AT 3 AM...TWO AREAS OF SNOW WAS SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS. MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN AREA OF SNOW WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE TWIN CITIES IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 800 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THE 12.00Z AND 12.06Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TWO AREAS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TOGETHER. WITH THE NMM...ARW...AND RAP HAVING SIMILAR TIMING TRENDED THE SNOW CHANCES TOWARD THEM. WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOKING A BIT LOWER...THE SNOW AMOUNTS WERE LOWERED TO AROUND AN INCH. FOR LATE TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. OVERALL THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION OCCURS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 AND 94 CORRIDORS. SINCE THIS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS...RAISED THE SNOW CHANCES UP SOME MORE. WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES...ONLY AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 ON THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE NAM CONTINUES TO KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. MEANWHILE THE GFS...GEM... AND ECMWF HAS ITS PRECIPITATION MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINKING THAT THE NAM IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS SNOW AND THE OTHER MODELS ARE TOO FAR SOUTH...SO WENT WITH A BLEND. EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SNOW TOTALS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE UP TO AN INCH. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE 12.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS TRACK IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN IT WAS IN 11.00Z AND 11.12Z MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION...THIS WAVE LOOKS MUCH STRONGER THAN IT DID IN EITHER OF THESE RUNS...SO IT MAKES SENSE THAT THERE WOULD BE A SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN ITS TRACK. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...TOOK OUT THE SNOW CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN... AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST IOWA. FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED NEAR 150 DEGREE WEST LONGITUDE. AS THIS OCCURS...OUR WINDS SHIFT A BIT MORE NORTHERLY ALLOWING COLD AIR FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -8 TO -12C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. IN ADDITION WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE ON SATURDAY... THE POLAR JET HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL BE FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...DECREASED THE SNOW CHANCES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABOUT 150 MB OF DENDRITIC GROWTH BETWEEN 700 AND 550 MB. THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO AROUND 18:1. WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RUNNING BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.15 INCHES... EXPECT SNOW TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE REGION...THUS A WEAK LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF INITIALLY HAS A SIMILAR UPPER WAVE STRUCTURE INITIALLY. HOWEVER IT EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A STRONG WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS RESULT IN STRONG CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING ACROSS INDIANA AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS WEST TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH SUCH DIFFERENCES...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 MORNING SNOW IMPACTS HAVE EXITED KRST/KLSE AREA WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE PERIOD FOCUSED ON CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD FRONT NOW SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA...AND THIS HAS SLOWLY MOVED EAST. A 1000 TO 1500 FT STRATUS DECK HAS BECOME TRAPPED IN AN INVERSION ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND HAS ESSENTIALLY REMAINED MOTIONLESS THIS MORNING. SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD WILL BECOME BAGGY THIS AFTERNOON...AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY MIXING TO SCOUR OUT CLOUDS WITH A DECENT CLEARING LINE JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE NEAR TERM AND HI-RES MODELS...KEEPING THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MVFR CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK UP IN EARNEST OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS PRODUCING SUSTAINED 20 KT WINDS AT KRST WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE A QUICK HITTING SHOT OF SNOW BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z AT BOTH TAF SITES. HAVE INTRODUCED A MVFR RESTRICTION AT THIS POINT...AS THE FAST MOVEMENT ALONG WITH THE BETTER FORCING TO THE NORTH SHOULD LIMIT CHANCES OF IFR CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AT KRST...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW GIVEN TODAY/S SNOW AND FORECAST SNOW TOMORROW MORNING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1102 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 .UPDATE...KMKX AND SURROUNDING RADARS SHOW LIGHT SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN HINDERED TOO MUCH BY THE LIGHT SNOW...WITH LOWEST VIS BEING REPORTED AT 1 TO 1 3/4 MILES AT 10 AM...THAT IS INDICATIVE OF A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR OR LESS SNOWFALL RATES. MAIN CONCERN IS POPS/WX IN THE ONGOING TODAY PERIOD AND TIMING THE SNOW AS IT EXITS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEM TO VARY IN REGARD TO HOW IT HANDLES THE SNOW AND ITS AREAL COVERAGE. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE UNDERDOING ITS COVERAGE THE MOST...ESPECIALLY EARLIER RUNS...WITH TOO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. VARIOUS FLAVORS OF WRF SEEM TO HANDLE THE CURRENT LIGHT SNOW BETTER. AS SUCH...LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE SOLUTIONS OF WRF THAT WERE AVAILABLE AND THE CONSENSUS SHORT MODEL BLEND...ESPECIALLY FOR WHEN THE SNOW EXITS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY WHILE PUSHING EAST AND WILL BE JUST ABOUT OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 6 PM...THOUGH SNOW MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE GUIDANCE AND SFC OBS/RADAR TRENDS...POPS WERE INCREASED EARLIER THIS MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS AND QPF WERE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...TEMPS...WINDS...AND SKIES WERE ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE OUTSIDE OF ADJUSTING FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. ET && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LIGHT SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END AT MADISON BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EASTERN SITES ENDING BETWEEN 22Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY. THE LAST FEW HOURS AT THE EASTERN SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON...WITH AROUND 1/2 INCH AT THE EASTERN SITES. SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE UP TO 1/4 INCH PER HOUR AT MADISON...LOWER AT THE EASTERN SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE INTO THURSDAY...AS A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 2000 TO 3000 FOOT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL RANGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS. IF THE LIGHT SNOW OCCURS...APPEARS ANY ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE UP TO 1/2 INCH OR SO AT THIS TIME. WOOD && .MARINE...FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD...TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...ON THURSDAY. IT SHOULD THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THURSDAY...VEERING WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING MOST OF THIS PERIOD. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. ICE COVERED WATERS WILL LIMIT WAVE ACTION. WOOD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014/ TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF SPREADING ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS MORNING. 290 DEGREE KELVIN ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS THE 700 MB LAYER MOISTENS WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DROPPING BELOW 5 MB. HOWEVER THIS OCCURS IN A NARROW BAND THAT SHRINKS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO THE UPWARD ISENTROPIC OMEGA IS RATHER WEAK AND THE AREA OF WINDS THAT ARE PERPENDICULAR TO THE NIGHT CONTOURS OCCUR ALONG THE TROUGH WHERE THE HEIGHT CONTOURS ARE SPACED FAIRLY FAR APART. 250 MB DIVERGENCE IS WEAK TODAY WITH WEAK UPWARD VELOCITY AT 700 MB THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 850/700 MB LAYER DOES SATURATE BUT THE 850 MB LOW LEVEL WIND MAX OF 35 KNOTS OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AND BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THAT AREA IS ONLY 25 KNOTS AND IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION. THEREFORE EXPECT THE BAND OF SNOW TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING BUT WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. SO...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...LOWERING POPS QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY NOT SEE MUCH. SHOULD SEE AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH NEAR THE DELLS...MONTELLO AND FOND DU LAC...UP TO 1/2 INCH IN MILWAUKEE AND A FEW TENTHS AT BEST IN KENOSHA. THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES WITH THE BETTER VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE MORNING HOURS. MAIN SURFACE/850 LOW CENTERS TRACK ACRS NRN WI AND THE U.P. INFLUENCE OF 250 MILLIBAR JET DYNAMICS ARE FURTHER SOUTH THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN...SO NOT AS FAVORABLE. HOWEVER THE 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX LOOKS FAIRLY POTENT. 850-700 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS MDT/STG. THE QPF IS HIGHER NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SFC/850 LOW CENTERS...WITH AN AXIS OF LIGHTER QPF EXTENDING SOUTH ACRS SRN WI WITH THE DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION. THE NAM IS DRY WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGESTS A FEW TENTHS WITH THIS QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. AGAIN...MAIN INFLUENCE TO OUR NORTH. FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH COLDER AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE/850 LOWS SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ALLOWS THE NNW WINDS TO TAP INTO THE COLDER 925 TEMPS OF -10 TO -14C. SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW YET ANOTHER WAVE RIDES IN. THIS ONE TRACKS THROUGH IOWA INTO ILLINOIS. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE GFS/ECMWF TO DRIFT THE QPF MAX FURTHER SOUTHWEST SHOWING MUCH LESS QPF ACROSS THE CWA. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER WITH A MUCH STRONGER LOW AND FURTHER NORTH INTO NRN ILLINOIS VERSUS THE WEAKER AND SKEWED SOUTH GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA...THOUGH AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT OF THESE AMOUNTS STILL IN QUESTION DUE TO SHIFTING MODEL SOLUTIONS. SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. THERMAL TROUGH AND LINGERING SURFACE/850 RIDGING GETS SHUNTED EAST WITH TIME AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA KICKS BACK IN. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE 850 WARMING. MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW MODELS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY AS UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THE GFS SHOWS A VERY PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAT WHISKS THROUGH HERE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS...AND THE GEM TENDS TO SIDE WITH THIS...A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH INTO TUESDAY WITH A MORE DEVELOPED LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A MORE PROLONGED PRECIP EVENT INTO TUESDAY. THE PROGS DO AGREE ON SOME PRECIP MONDAY WITH WITH FAIRLY 850 TEMPS OF 1-3C...SO MIXY PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION ALLOWS THE TAPPING OF COLDER AIR FOR PRECIP TO BECOME PURE SNOW MON NGT/TUE WHILE THE GFS SHOWS DRY WEATHER WITH WARM ADVECTION GETTING UNDERWAY. PLENTY OF VARIATION AND LITTLE CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS SO WILL GO WITH ALLBLEND GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER SUNRISE. THE BAND OF SNOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEN DIMINISHING LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A STRONG LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND HURON. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WIND DURING THIS TIME. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ET/WOOD TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
550 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 AT 3 AM...TWO AREAS OF SNOW WAS SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS. MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN AREA OF SNOW WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE TWIN CITIES IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 800 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THE 12.00Z AND 12.06Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TWO AREAS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TOGETHER. WITH THE NMM...ARW...AND RAP HAVING SIMILAR TIMING TRENDED THE SNOW CHANCES TOWARD THEM. WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOKING A BIT LOWER...THE SNOW AMOUNTS WERE LOWERED TO AROUND AN INCH. FOR LATE TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. OVERALL THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION OCCURS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 AND 94 CORRIDORS. SINCE THIS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS...RAISED THE SNOW CHANCES UP SOME MORE. WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES...ONLY AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 ON THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE NAM CONTINUES TO KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. MEANWHILE THE GFS...GEM... AND ECMWF HAS ITS PRECIPITATION MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINKING THAT THE NAM IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS SNOW AND THE OTHER MODELS ARE TOO FAR SOUTH...SO WENT WITH A BLEND. EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SNOW TOTALS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE UP TO AN INCH. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE 12.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS TRACK IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN IT WAS IN 11.00Z AND 11.12Z MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION...THIS WAVE LOOKS MUCH STRONGER THAN IT DID IN EITHER OF THESE RUNS...SO IT MAKES SENSE THAT THERE WOULD BE A SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN ITS TRACK. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...TOOK OUT THE SNOW CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN... AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST IOWA. FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED NEAR 150 DEGREE WEST LONGITUDE. AS THIS OCCURS...OUR WINDS SHIFT A BIT MORE NORTHERLY ALLOWING COLD AIR FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -8 TO -12C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. IN ADDITION WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE ON SATURDAY... THE POLAR JET HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL BE FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...DECREASED THE SNOW CHANCES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABOUT 150 MB OF DENDRITIC GROWTH BETWEEN 700 AND 550 MB. THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO AROUND 18:1. WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RUNNING BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.15 INCHES... EXPECT SNOW TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE REGION...THUS A WEAK LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF INITIALLY HAS A SIMILAR UPPER WAVE STRUCTURE INITIALLY. HOWEVER IT EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A STRONG WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS RESULT IN STRONG CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING ACROSS INDIANA AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS WEST TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH SUCH DIFFERENCES...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 550 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SNOW THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND HOW LOW CONDITIONS WILL GET THIS MORNING. THE LEADING BAND THAT RUNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA IS...AT ITS LOWEST...2SM AND THEN JUMPS UP TO AROUND 4SM RIGHT BEHIND IT. SO...EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. AS THE SNOW COMES TO AN END...IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH AND HELP TO BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH WITH HOW LONG THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD ON FOR...BUT FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED IT PESSIMISTIC WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS STUCK UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
349 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 AT 3 AM...TWO AREAS OF SNOW WAS SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS. MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN AREA OF SNOW WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE TWIN CITIES IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 800 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THE 12.00Z AND 12.06Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TWO AREAS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TOGETHER. WITH THE NMM...ARW...AND RAP HAVING SIMILAR TIMING TRENDED THE SNOW CHANCES TOWARD THEM. WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOKING A BIT LOWER...THE SNOW AMOUNTS WERE LOWERED TO AROUND AN INCH. FOR LATE TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. OVERALL THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION OCCURS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 AND 94 CORRIDORS. SINCE THIS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS...RAISED THE SNOW CHANCES UP SOME MORE. WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES...ONLY AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014 ON THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE NAM CONTINUES TO KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. MEANWHILE THE GFS...GEM... AND ECMWF HAS ITS PRECIPITATION MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. STILL THINKING THAT THE NAM IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS SNOW AND THE OTHER MODELS ARE TOO FAR SOUTH...SO WENT WITH A BLEND. EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF MEASURAB;E SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SNOW TOTALS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE UP TO AN INCH. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE 12.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS TRACK IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN IT WAS IN 11.00Z AND 11.12Z MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION...THIS WAVE LOOKS MUCH STRONGER THAN IT DID IN EITHER OF THESE RUNS...SO IT MAKES SENSE THAT THERE WOULD BE A SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN ITS TRACK. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...TOOK OUT THE SNOW CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN... AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST IOWA. FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED NEAR 150 DEGREE WEST LONGITUDE. AS THIS OCCURS...OUR WINDS SHIFT A BIT MORE NORTHERLY ALLOWING COLD AIR FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -8 TO -12C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. IN ADDITION WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE ON SATURDAY... THE POLAR JET HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THAT THE BEST FORCING WILL BE FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...DECREASED THE SNOW CHANCES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABOUT 150 MB OF DENDRITIC GROWTH BETWEEN 700 AND 550 MB. THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO AROUND 18:1. WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RUNNING BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.15 INCHES... EXPECT SNOW TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE REGION...THUS A WEAK LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF INITIALLY HAS A SIMILAR UPPER WAVE STRUCTURE INITIALLY. HOWEVER IT EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A STRONG WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS RESULT IN STRONG CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING ACROSS INDIANA AND OHIO ON TUESDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS WEST TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH SUCH DIFFERENCES...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014 CIGS HAVE DROPPED INTO MVFR AT KRST...AND WILL DO SO SHORTLY AT KLSE. TIMING ON ASSOCIATED SNOW IS POSING SOME PROBLEMS. LOBE OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST MN/NORTHWEST WI. NOT MUCH OFF A SOUTHWEST EXTENT. MORE GOING ON OVER SD...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. IN THIS SETUP...MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH WOULD STAY THERE...WITH THE SHORTWAVE DRIVING SNOW MOVING IN CLOSER TO 12Z. RAP13/NAM12/HRRR FAVORING THIS SOLUTION. THAT SAID...SOME SOLUTIONS ALSO FAVORING A DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE AS THE SNOW MOVES IN...WHICH WOULD HAVE IMPACTS ON VSBY AND AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...BUT WILL TREND THE TAFS THIS WAY...MAKING SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS. ACCUMULATIONS MIGHT BE CLOSER TO 1 INCH. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL EXIT BY 18Z...BUT THE LOW CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH WED EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS NOT AS ROBUST WITH THE CLOUDS. GOING TO HOLD THE MVFR CIGS FOR NOW...BUT SEE THIS AS AN AREA WHERE A FEW HOURS OF VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. 45-50 KT 2 KFT LOW LEVEL JET GOING TO HOLD INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE LLWS MENTION FOR AT KRST/KLSE. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN THIS AFTERNOON...SWINGING WINDS TO THE WEST FOR A WHILE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WORKS IN FOR THE EVENING...RESULTING IN LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FETCH. WINDS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY BY MIDNIGHT AT KRST...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
313 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014 .DISCUSSION... 906 PM CST HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER FOR NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING TO SHOW A SLOWER DEPARTURE. SATELLITE DOES SHOW A STEADIER EASTWARD PUSH OF CLOUDS NOW BUT THIS MAY TAKE AN ADDITIONAL FEW HOURS TO SCATTER/CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA. OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD NOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST CWA WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KT ACCOMPANYING IT FOR A SHORT TIME...RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF BLOWING SNOW AS WINDS KICK UP. WINDS EASE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. NEXT WAVE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS-IS AND CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH FIRST THING IN THE MORNING. MDB //PREV DISCUSSION... 318 PM CST SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH MINOR TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT ON SATURDAY. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SUBZERO NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT WEEK`S BIG PATTERN CHANGE. TONIGHT... COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TODAY IS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA AND IT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS TURNING WESTERLY AND USHERING IN COLD ADVECTION. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT HAVE NOT INDICATED IN FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE SO ITS DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIP BUT WILL MONITOR THIS. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT NONETHELESS CAA SHOULD ENABLE LOWS TO DIP TO THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...MILDEST IN SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPERATURES IS MEDIUM. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN FAST FLOW INTO PAC NW WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...INITIATING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING SYSTEM ALONG OR SOUTH OF OH RIVER BY MID-DAY FRIDAY. PATH OF SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING INDICATES THAT ONLY SOUTHERN CWA MAY SEE GLANCING BLOW OF SNOWFALL TOMORROW...WHERE CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TOMORROW AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW SHIELD EXTENDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE ALL FAR SOUTH OF OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT GIVEN STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS IT APPEARS THAT AT MOST A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH OR SO WOULD OCCUR IN THE FAR SOUTH. AS SYSTEM DEPARTS SOUTHEAST LATER TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO ERODE FROM NORTHWEST. 850/925 MB CLIMATOLOGY SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S. SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PC MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT CLIPPER. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED A BIT SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENABLE NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT OR CALM OVERNIGHT. ASSUMING CLOUDS DO NOT OVERSPREAD AREA EARLIER...DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEEP SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUBZERO LOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CHICAGO AREA. GIVEN HOW EASILY FAVORED COLD SPOTS HAVE PLUMMETED IN RECENT NIGHTS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...STILL CONSIDERED THAT LOW-MID MINUS SINGLE DIGITS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IN SOME AREAS. SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING CLIPPER JUST SOUTH OF CWA ON SATURDAY AND THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW ROBUST FORCING REMAINS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EVEN THE GUIDANCE THAT MAINTAINS STRONGER FORCING WITH UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS REGION DOES INDICATE AN OVERALL DAMPENING/WEAKENING TREND...SO BEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE FOCUSED INTO WESTERN HALF OF CWA AS MENTIONED ON PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. NONETHELESS..CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN ENTIRE CWA SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF FAVORABLE LIFT AND SATURATION THROUGH A RELATIVELY DEEP DGZ...AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN LOWER 20S...RATIOS SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE AT AROUND 15:1. SIMILAR GENERAL IDEA OF A 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HIGHEST AGAIN LIKELY FOCUSED INTO WESTERN HALF OF CWA. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD START BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST CWA OVERSPREADING REST OF AREA BY EARLY EVENING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR EARLIER ONSET AS SOMETIMES OCCURS WITH CLIPPER SYSTEMS...AS WELL AS SOME LINGERING SNOWS IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY... SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH RAPID WARM ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT OTHERWISE FAIRLY PLEASANT IN THIS BITTERLY COLD WINTER. RC LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WINTRY...BUT QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A MUCH WARMER...BUT MOIST PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA....IS EXPECTED TO BE FORCED SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A FEATURE THAT IS WELL AGREED UPON AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME RANGE. PRIOR TO THIS UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD...A STRONG QUASI ZONAL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES EASTWARD ACROSS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WARMER MID LEVEL AIR TRIES TO WORK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...IT APPEARS THAT A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PRECIP MAY TRANSITION TO RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AS TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SO...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS...THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...SLEET OR ICE ON MONDAY...SO THIS WILL BE WORTH WATCHING. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT MONDAY EVENING...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THE TYPICALLY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUALLY SYSTEMS...THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THAT THE LARGE SCALE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE TO A PERIOD OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OR TWO OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME CONVECTION LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD LEAD TO HYDRO CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO GET DEW POINTS IN EXCESS OF 45 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THIS WOULD SUPPORT A RAPID MELT OF THE CURRENT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER IN THE SNOW...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TOP OF THIS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING ISSUES. THE MAIN QUESTIONS AT THIS POINT ARE WHEN AND IF THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY SEE ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER NEXT WEEK. THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT AGREE WELL WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS LATER NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DOES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OR TWO OF RAIN LATER NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT TIMING AND HENCE ANY HYDRO RISKS WILL HAVE TO BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. KJB && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z... * CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS TODAY IZZI //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... BACK EDGE OF MVFR STRATUS IS PIVOTING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE CHICAGO AREAS TERMINALS BY AROUND 8 OR 830Z. MID LEVEL VFR OVC SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. GUSTINESS OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME LESS FREQUENT AND SUBSIDE THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PROBABLY EASE IN SPEED A BIT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME OCNL GUSTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 15-18KT RANGE...BUT WITH OVC SKIES EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE FRQUENCY AND LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON TAFS EVEN IF THEY DO OCCUR HAVE NOT INCLUDED GUSTS AT THIS TIME. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND WINDS SUBSIDE FURTHER FRIDAY EVENING. IZZI //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z... * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS REMAINING VFR TODAY * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS IZZI //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z... * SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. IFR LIKELY. * SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. * SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET. MVFR LIKELY. * MONDAY...FREEZING RAIN/SLEET LIKELY IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. IFR LIKELY. LIFR POSSIBLE. * TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. && .MARINE... 312 AM CST BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE LAKE TODAY WILL GRADUALLY EASE THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND THEN FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL RACE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER TRANSIENT HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. MORE STOUT SOUTHEAST WIND WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THAT HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IZZI && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 910 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014 The upcoming snow even for late tonight into Friday afternoon still looks on track. The clipper energy for our event is currently moving across south-central South Dakota into NC Nebraska. We may be a little early on the start of snowfall with the advisory starting at midnight, but light snow should be falling for the SW portions of the winter weather advisory areas, W of Springfield. The primary period of time for snow accums still looks to be between 6 am and Noon west of I-57, with snowfall accums continuing until around 3 pm for the advisory areas east of I-57. The compact system will produce a narrow band of 2 to 4" of snow across our southern counties, with a sharp cutoff on the northern and southern edges. The 00Z NAM and 00z HRRR are showing similar solutions to earlier runs, with the higher snow totals primarily in our advisory counties. The 12z Canadian GEM took the system slightly farther south than its previous runs, but decent agreement remains between the latest GFS, NAM, HRRR, and RAP. Temps during the snowfall support snow ratios around 15:1, which works well with expected QPF of 0.15 to 0.20". The evening updates mainly dealt with timing the precip in and out over the next 24 hours. We delayed the categorical pops late tonight by an hour, and lowed pops early Fri afternoon in the west and everywhere after 3 pm. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast appears to be in good shape. Shimon && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014 The clipper system moving across Nebraska is on track to initiate snowfall late tonight around SPI. The snow will expand eastward quickly during the morning, with SPI and DEC in line for 2 to 4" of accumulation by mid afternoon. PIA, BMI, and CMI will most likely be in the 1 to 2" range, but better chances are toward the 1" amounts that far north. IFR and LIFR conditions are expected during the periods of moderate snow for SPI and DEC between 14z and 18z. The other TAF sites should remain MVFR during light snowfall until early afternoon. The speed of the clipper should allow snow to come to an end in SPI shortly after 18z, with DEC and CMI seeing snow lasting possibly until 21z or so. VFR conditions should develop again during the evening as dry air filters back into the area. Shimon && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 311 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014 Models look in fairly good agreement with the next two waves coming through the area through the weekend. So, a blend of the models looks like a good forecast at this time, in the short term. In the extended, one system moves into the area for first part of the week. With temps warming, pcpn type will be tricky at onset of the pcpn. Then looks like another system is forecast for later part of the week. Models show some differences on timing of this system, but all models forecasting warmer temps for next week. SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday Another snow event is coming for very late tonight through tomorrow. All models are in good agreement with this system so confidence is high with timing, location and amounts for this event. Models have trended little further north with best area of lift and moisture. Looks like snow will begin in the extreme west after 09z tonight and then overspread the rest of central and southeast Illinois by 15z. Heaviest snow band should setup south of a Macomb to Lincoln to Paris line. With the sfc low tracking from southern MO to western TN tomorrow, looks like should be plenty of moisture for there to be enough accumulating snow to reach advisory criteria by tomorrow afternoon. Does look like most of snow will be tomorrow morning from 6am to noon, with lingering snow still occurring in the east and southeast during the early afternoon. So a winter weather advisory will be issued for already mentioned areas. Snowfall amounts will decrease rapidly to the north. After a brief dry period, Friday night, another minor snow event will track across the north into the Grt Lks region. Highest snowfall amounts, near an inch, will be in the extreme north of the cwa with axis being along and north of I-74. This snow will occur mainly Sat afternoon and Sat evening. Then dry weather should return of Sunday. Temps through the period will remain cold, below normal. LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday Extended period is forecasting a change in the pattern, though it may be temporary. However, another system is forecast to move into the region beginning Sunday night and continuing into Monday. This system will have to overcome a lot of dry air initially so the pcpn could begin as a mix of sleet and freezing rain. The temps will warm up to above freezing early Monday morning, so pcpn will change over to all rain. Pcpn will begin northwest of the IL river Sunday night, before overspreading the rest of the area as just rain on Monday. Pcpn could end as a mix of rain and snow, but this is not worth mentioning at this time. The next weather system will be Wed through Thur and based on the warmer temps, this pcpn will be all rain. Cloudy, windy and foggy conditions are also possible as there will have been several days of temps above freezing and we have a lot of snow to melt over most of the area. Initial looks at this system show that thunderstorms are possible, but with models disagreeing and system 7 days out, it is too soon add thunderstorms at this time. Definite warming trend in store for next week. Daytime temps will warm to above freezing, however, overnight lows will still fall back to below freezing over portions of the area Mon night and Tue night. Lows Wed night will be above freezing. Auten && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Friday FOR ILZ040-047>057- 061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1145 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014 .DISCUSSION... 906 PM CST HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER FOR NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING TO SHOW A SLOWER DEPARTURE. SATELLITE DOES SHOW A STEADIER EASTWARD PUSH OF CLOUDS NOW BUT THIS MAY TAKE AN ADDITIONAL FEW HOURS TO SCATTER/CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA. OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD NOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST CWA WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KT ACCOMPANYING IT FOR A SHORT TIME...RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF BLOWING SNOW AS WINDS KICK UP. WINDS EASE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. NEXT WAVE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS-IS AND CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH FIRST THING IN THE MORNING. MDB //PREV DISCUSSION... 318 PM CST SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH MINOR TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT ON SATURDAY. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SUBZERO NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT WEEK`S BIG PATTERN CHANGE. TONIGHT... COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TODAY IS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA AND IT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS TURNING WESTERLY AND USHERING IN COLD ADVECTION. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT HAVE NOT INDICATED IN FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE SO ITS DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIP BUT WILL MONITOR THIS. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT NONETHELESS CAA SHOULD ENABLE LOWS TO DIP TO THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...MILDEST IN SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPERATURES IS MEDIUM. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN FAST FLOW INTO PAC NW WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...INITIATING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING SYSTEM ALONG OR SOUTH OF OH RIVER BY MID-DAY FRIDAY. PATH OF SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING INDICATES THAT ONLY SOUTHERN CWA MAY SEE GLANCING BLOW OF SNOWFALL TOMORROW...WHERE CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TOMORROW AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW SHIELD EXTENDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE ALL FAR SOUTH OF OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT GIVEN STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS IT APPEARS THAT AT MOST A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH OR SO WOULD OCCUR IN THE FAR SOUTH. AS SYSTEM DEPARTS SOUTHEAST LATER TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO ERODE FROM NORTHWEST. 850/925 MB CLIMATOLOGY SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S. SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PC MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT CLIPPER. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED A BIT SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENABLE NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT OR CALM OVERNIGHT. ASSUMING CLOUDS DO NOT OVERSPREAD AREA EARLIER...DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEEP SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUBZERO LOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CHICAGO AREA. GIVEN HOW EASILY FAVORED COLD SPOTS HAVE PLUMMETED IN RECENT NIGHTS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...STILL CONSIDERED THAT LOW-MID MINUS SINGLE DIGITS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IN SOME AREAS. SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING CLIPPER JUST SOUTH OF CWA ON SATURDAY AND THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW ROBUST FORCING REMAINS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EVEN THE GUIDANCE THAT MAINTAINS STRONGER FORCING WITH UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS REGION DOES INDICATE AN OVERALL DAMPENING/WEAKENING TREND...SO BEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE FOCUSED INTO WESTERN HALF OF CWA AS MENTIONED ON PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. NONETHELESS..CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN ENTIRE CWA SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF FAVORABLE LIFT AND SATURATION THROUGH A RELATIVELY DEEP DGZ...AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN LOWER 20S...RATIOS SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE AT AROUND 15:1. SIMILAR GENERAL IDEA OF A 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HIGHEST AGAIN LIKELY FOCUSED INTO WESTERN HALF OF CWA. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD START BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST CWA OVERSPREADING REST OF AREA BY EARLY EVENING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR EARLIER ONSET AS SOMETIMES OCCURS WITH CLIPPER SYSTEMS...AS WELL AS SOME LINGERING SNOWS IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY... SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH RAPID WARM ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT OTHERWISE FAIRLY PLEASANT IN THIS BITTERLY COLD WINTER. RC LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WINTRY...BUT QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A MUCH WARMER...BUT MOIST PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA....IS EXPECTED TO BE FORCED SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A FEATURE THAT IS WELL AGREED UPON AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME RANGE. PRIOR TO THIS UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD...A STRONG QUASI ZONAL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES EASTWARD ACROSS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WARMER MID LEVEL AIR TRIES TO WORK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...IT APPEARS THAT A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PRECIP MAY TRANSITION TO RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AS TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SO...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS...THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...SLEET OR ICE ON MONDAY...SO THIS WILL BE WORTH WATCHING. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT MONDAY EVENING...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THE TYPICALLY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUALLY SYSTEMS...THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THAT THE LARGE SCALE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE TO A PERIOD OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OR TWO OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME CONVECTION LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD LEAD TO HYDRO CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO GET DEW POINTS IN EXCESS OF 45 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THIS WOULD SUPPORT A RAPID MELT OF THE CURRENT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER IN THE SNOW...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TOP OF THIS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING ISSUES. THE MAIN QUESTIONS AT THIS POINT ARE WHEN AND IF THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY SEE ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER NEXT WEEK. THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT AGREE WELL WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS LATER NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DOES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OR TWO OF RAIN LATER NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT TIMING AND HENCE ANY HYDRO RISKS WILL HAVE TO BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. KJB && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * MVFR CIGS DEPART EARLY THIS MORNING IZZI //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... BACK EDGE OF MVFR STRATUS IS PIVOTING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE CHICAGO AREAS TERMINALS BY AROUND 8 OR 830Z. MID LEVEL VFR OVC SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. GUSTINESS OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME LESS FREQUENT AND SUBSIDE THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PROBABLY EASE IN SPEED A BIT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME OCNL GUSTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 15-18KT RANGE...BUT WITH OVC SKIES EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE FRQUENCY AND LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON TAFS EVEN IF THEY DO OCCUR HAVE NOT INCLUDED GUSTS AT THIS TIME. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND WINDS SUBSIDE FURTHER FRIDAY EVENING. IZZI //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS IZZI //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z... * SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. IFR LIKELY. * SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. * SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET. MVFR LIKELY. * MONDAY...FREEZING RAIN/SLEET LIKELY IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. IFR LIKELY. LIFR POSSIBLE. * TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. && .MARINE... 242 PM CST SURFACE RIDGE HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS LOW SHOULD SLIDE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT THIS WILL GENERATE GUSTS TO 30 KT...AND BUILD WAVES SLIGHTLY. DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVERAGE...WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO BUILD AS LARGE AS WITH OPEN WATERS. NONETHELESS...WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 TO 6 FT. THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKES SATURDAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE NEXT LOW PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND REACHES THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS VARYING FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE IN SPEED AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SE TO S TO 30 KT AND THEN VEER TO WEST 10-20 KT MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS QUIET OVER THE LAKE. BEACHLER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 919 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 910 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014 The upcoming snow even for late tonight into Friday afternoon still looks on track. The clipper energy for our event is currently moving across south-central South Dakota into NC Nebraska. We may be a little early on the start of snowfall with the advisory starting at midnight, but light snow should be falling for the SW portions of the winter weather advisory areas, W of Springfield. The primary period of time for snow accums still looks to be between 6 am and Noon west of I-57, with snowfall accums continuing until around 3 pm for the advisory areas east of I-57. The compact system will produce a narrow band of 2 to 4" of snow across our southern counties, with a sharp cutoff on the northern and southern edges. The 00Z NAM and 00z HRRR are showing similar solutions to earlier runs, with the higher snow totals primarily in our advisory counties. The 12z Canadian GEM took the system slightly farther south than its previous runs, but decent agreement remains between the latest GFS, NAM, HRRR, and RAP. Temps during the snowfall support snow ratios around 15:1, which works well with expected QPF of 0.15 to 0.20". The evening updates mainly dealt with timing the precip in and out over the next 24 hours. We delayed the categorical pops late tonight by an hour, and lowed pops early Fri afternoon in the west and everywhere after 3 pm. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast appears to be in good shape. Shimon && .AVIATION... ISSUED 600 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014 A cold front will push across our forecast area this evening, bringing a wind shift from southwest to west by 03z and northwest by 06z. Post-frontal winds will increase into the 10-15kt range, with a few gusts to 20kt in a couple of hours behind the front. Cloud cover will generally be minimal until after 06z, when VFR mid-clouds begin arriving ahead of the next shortwave. We expect that next wave to trigger widespread snow showers across our southern terminals of SPI and DEC, with 2 to 4 inches of snow possible later tonight and Friday. IFR vis and ceilings are expected for SPI and DEC during the heavier snows between 15z and 20z, when the bulk of the snow accumulation is expected. MVFR conditions are expected at the other TAF sites during the snow from mid morning into early afternoon. SPI and DEC will see a return to MVFR conditions by mid afternoon. Winds will be northwest in the 08-12kt range during the snowfall, and remain northwest into early evening with an increase in wind speeds to the 12-14kt range. Shimon && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 311 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014 Models look in fairly good agreement with the next two waves coming through the area through the weekend. So, a blend of the models looks like a good forecast at this time, in the short term. In the extended, one system moves into the area for first part of the week. With temps warming, pcpn type will be tricky at onset of the pcpn. Then looks like another system is forecast for later part of the week. Models show some differences on timing of this system, but all models forecasting warmer temps for next week. SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday Another snow event is coming for very late tonight through tomorrow. All models are in good agreement with this system so confidence is high with timing, location and amounts for this event. Models have trended little further north with best area of lift and moisture. Looks like snow will begin in the extreme west after 09z tonight and then overspread the rest of central and southeast Illinois by 15z. Heaviest snow band should setup south of a Macomb to Lincoln to Paris line. With the sfc low tracking from southern MO to western TN tomorrow, looks like should be plenty of moisture for there to be enough accumulating snow to reach advisory criteria by tomorrow afternoon. Does look like most of snow will be tomorrow morning from 6am to noon, with lingering snow still occurring in the east and southeast during the early afternoon. So a winter weather advisory will be issued for already mentioned areas. Snowfall amounts will decrease rapidly to the north. After a brief dry period, Friday night, another minor snow event will track across the north into the Grt Lks region. Highest snowfall amounts, near an inch, will be in the extreme north of the cwa with axis being along and north of I-74. This snow will occur mainly Sat afternoon and Sat evening. Then dry weather should return of Sunday. Temps through the period will remain cold, below normal. LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday Extended period is forecasting a change in the pattern, though it may be temporary. However, another system is forecast to move into the region beginning Sunday night and continuing into Monday. This system will have to overcome a lot of dry air initially so the pcpn could begin as a mix of sleet and freezing rain. The temps will warm up to above freezing early Monday morning, so pcpn will change over to all rain. Pcpn will begin northwest of the IL river Sunday night, before overspreading the rest of the area as just rain on Monday. Pcpn could end as a mix of rain and snow, but this is not worth mentioning at this time. The next weather system will be Wed through Thur and based on the warmer temps, this pcpn will be all rain. Cloudy, windy and foggy conditions are also possible as there will have been several days of temps above freezing and we have a lot of snow to melt over most of the area. Initial looks at this system show that thunderstorms are possible, but with models disagreeing and system 7 days out, it is too soon add thunderstorms at this time. Definite warming trend in store for next week. Daytime temps will warm to above freezing, however, overnight lows will still fall back to below freezing over portions of the area Mon night and Tue night. Lows Wed night will be above freezing. Auten && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Friday FOR ILZ040-047>057- 061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1134 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 936 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014 Added a small chance of rain or sleet to the eastern 2/3rds of the CWA after 08Z. RAP/HRRR and NAM develop precipitation ahead of an approaching PV anomaly. Lapse rates steepen and isentropic lift increases after 08Z. However dry air in low levels will likely keep the precipitation on the light side. Looking at soundings from RAP and NAM would suggest rain or sleet will be possible. Again amounts will be on the light side if any. && ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 249 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014 Clear skies have allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 40s to low 50s across the area today. Snow cover has prevented any further warming although there has been some melting, and this may add extra moisture into the boundary layer supporting the develop of haze, especially after sunset under the clear skies. Although the period of clear skies will be brief as mid level clouds are forecast to move into the area shortly before midnight ahead of the approaching system therefore do not expect widespread fog. This should keep the temperatures from rapidly dropping overnight, and could lead to warmer low temperatures, which are forecast to be in the upper 20s to near 30. A front currently passing through the Midwest has forced a baroclinic zone southward into NE, and eventually far northeast KS. As the mid level shortwave passes over the region overnight and tomorrow morning it will drive a surface low pressure directly over the forecast area along the baroclinic zone. There is a slight chance that far northeast KS could see flurries as the lift increases mainly before sunrise. Forecast soundings are showing a rather deep layer of dry air roughly 950 to 750 mb that may prevent any precipitation as the lift quickly advances eastward before saturation occurs. Behind the departing system a strong northwesterly low level jet passes over the region. Cold air advection and daytime heating will promote steep low level lapse rates resulting in deep mixing. The stronger winds should mix down during the day tomorrow, and increasing subsidence could enhance any downward momentum transfer. Northwest winds increase to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph especially in north central KS. Temperatures will be somewhat tricky tomorrow as a secondary surge of cold air is forecast to move in during the afternoon. This will keep high temperatures in the mid 30s in far northeast KS and in the mid 40s in central KS, and possibly colder depending on the timing. Could see partly cloudy skies linger through the afternoon before drier air pushes in from the northwest. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 249 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014 Fri night-Sunday...Surface high pressure slides over the forecast area Friday evening but moves quickly east, and could make for tricky lows Friday night, as western counties may climb later in the night as southerly winds as well as clouds return. Have teens NE to low 20s SW but forecast may be on the cool side. Appears to be enough wind to not make fog a big concern at this time despite boost to moisture in the boundary layer from melting snow. The next shortwave trof drops through the WNW flow aloft across Iowa and into Illinois on Saturday. Winds in the mid levels near 50kts mid morning and will likely aid in mixing the boundary layer quickly as well as increasing winds and gusts for a time from morning into mid afternoon. Highs 40s NE to 50s SW. Following surface high Sunday night has center more over Eastern Kansas but temperatures not as cold, and will keep lows in the 20s near 30 for most of the area. Retreating high and increasing southerly winds across the high plains will once again bring warmer highs in the middle 50s west with cooler temperatures in the 40s in the far northeast. Warm air advection continues overnight Sunday into Monday and will only drop lows into the 30s. Mon-Thurs...Next wave on approach for Monday and associated low slides through in the morning hours. Once again the airmass coming in behind this wave not as cold and should be able to reach middle 50s for many locations through the southwest counties. Could see some showers from WAA and passing wave across the east and southeast. GFS and EC differ on how far south to track the next shortwave, but both keep the colder air north and will carry highs in the middle to upper 50s for Tuesday, with upper 50s low 60s possible by Wednesday. Long range models differ on strength of the upper jet and southern extent of energy moving across the plains, with EC deepening a wrn trof while GFS remains weaker and progressive. Kept guidance with highs in the 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1134 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014 Shortwave moving southeast will spread some scattered rain or sprinkles and perhaps even some sleet. Confidence not high enough to insert into the TAFs at this time. VFR conditions expected through 12Z then MVFR cigs will develop behind a cold front after 14Z then expect VFR after 21Z. Winds will increase to around 15 kts with gusts around 25 kts. winds will decrease toward 00Z to less than 10 kts by 02Z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...53 SHORT TERM...Sanders LONG TERM...67 AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1151 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 758 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014 We are watching the 00 UTC NAM come in...with the 00 UTC RAP already in. It appears that the going forecast is pretty much on track. One minor tweak we did make is to extend the sleet mention to the remainder of the area from late tonight into early Friday morning. Regional RAOBS are awfully dry this evening...thus wet- bulb sleet appears in play. Additionally, the RAP and NAM are bringing elevated instability into western Missouri early Friday morning. This may result in convective elements in the form of sleet/graupel. While we`re not ready to insert a thunder mention at this point, a rumble or two wouldn`t be a huge surprise. One other point we want to re-emphasize with this system is that despite the dry air currently in place, lift will drastically increase starting late tonight and will likely compensate for the lack of moisture. Isentropic plots indicate strong pressure advection in the 290-295 K potential temperature layer. Meanwhile, an approaching PV anomaly (in conjunction with digging short wave energy) and the left-forward quadrant of an upper level jet streak will ramp up mid/upper level tropospheric lift. With that being said, we are going to nudge PoPs up late tonight and early Friday morning across extreme southeastern Kansas and western Missouri. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 305 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014 Beautiful day observed across the region. Under a mainly sunny sky, temperatures have warmed well into the 40s, with a few 50s reported across southwestern Missouri and southeastern Kansas. Looking at visible satellite imagery, we have done a number on our remaining snow cover. Only areas left with appreciable snow cover include far northern Benton/Morgan/Miller, northwestern Bourbon (Kansas) and portions of Howell, Oregon and southern Shannon. Mid/high level moisture will gradually increase this evening into the overnight hours ahead of a fast moving, but rather potent shortwave trough that will approach from the northwest late tonight, moving through the area Friday morning. Moisture availability will be limited, though the system itself will bring enough moisture with it to bring a risk of precipitation. PV anomaly with this wave is rather strong, thus lift will not be an issue. The window of opportunity for lift will be pretty narrow, beginning after 3 AM and lasting until around noon. 12z suite of short range model output is in decent agreement with producing two primary bands of precipitation associated with a developing area of surface low pressure that will move northwest/southeast across the state. The first area of precipitation looks to just clip our central Missouri counties. The GEM remains the most bullish with QPF (and it`s also the furthest to the southwest with this band of precipitation). The NAM is the most bearish with little in the way of QPF being produced. Consensus dictates that this band of snow will more likely target areas to our northeast. Nevertheless, there should be enough moisture and lift present to produce light snow beginning late tonight with a dusting of less than one inch possible by mid morning Friday. Will need to watch the near term models for any shift in the location of this band of snow. The second band/area of precipitation looks to develop overhead toward daybreak Friday and more so into the daylight hours of Friday morning. Again, this will be fast moving, thus any precipitation will be quite light and end rather quickly. Thermal profiles across most of the area will support light rain. The only exceptions will once again be central Missouri and then areas of the eastern Ozarks along/east of the Highway 63 corridor. In this area, a mix of light freezing rain/sleet/snow will be possible until late morning when temperatures will slowly rise above freezing. A dusting of accumulation and patchy ice accumulation is possible for areas along/east of the Highway 63 corridor, though it does not look to be a widespread issue. Will need to watch the near term models to see if there will be any change to the expected thermal profiles and surface temperatures Friday morning. Quiet and seasonable weather conditions are expected from Friday night through Saturday night. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 305 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014 Overnight lows will see some significant warming after Friday night. Lows Friday night will fall into the lower 20s with overnight lows by Sunday morning only falling into the lower 40s. Despite a modified northwesterly upper level flow, surface high pressure, plenty of sunshine and southerly surface winds will allow temperatures to continue on a warning trend through the weekend and into next week. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 40s across central Missouri to near 60 near the Oklahoma border through the weekend with nearly all locations across the Ozarks in the 60s for the beginning of next week. A weak cold front will move through the plains and bring the chance for some light showers on Monday with Tuesday morning lows around the freezing mark. A warm front will then lift north through the region late Wednesday into Thursday with the potential for some scattered thunderstorms by Thursday afternoon. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1134 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014 An upper level storm system will bring lowering ceilings into Friday morning along with low level wind shear. Scattered rain showers are also expected to develop along with pockets of sleet Friday morning. We have covered this in a TEMPO group due to the expected scattered nature. A cold front will then move through southern Missouri later Friday morning with brisk and gusty northwest winds developing behind this feature. Indications are that a period of MVFR ceilings will also spread over the region Friday afternoon and early evening. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Schaumann SHORT TERM...Gagan LONG TERM...Hatch AVIATION...Schaumann
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1251 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AS THESE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REFLECT REALITY. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST IS GOOD. PREVIOUS FORECAST... 330 PM UPDATE... WE`VE EXPANDED WINTER STM WARNINGS ACRS NRN PTNS OF THE CWA...BASICALLY BACK WESTWARD TO ABT THE I-81 CORRIDOR. WARNINGS NOW EXTEND ALG AND E OF A LN FROM ONONDAGA-CORTLAND- BROOME-SUSQ-WYOMING-LUZERNE CNTYS...WITH ADVSYS W OF THIS LN THRU THE FINGER LKS AND CNTRL SRN TIER RGNS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPR AIR/MESO-ANALYSIS DATA DEPICT A DEEPENING AND CLOSED 700-500 MB LOW OVER VA ATTM...LIFTING NEWD...WITH AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS/INCREASING RADAR COVERAGE ACRS ERN WV/VA. IN THE MEANTIME...A WELL DEFINED NARROW SNOW BAND EXTENDS FROM CNTRL PA...NEWD TO KBGM...TO JUST S OF KALY...AND INTO CNTRL NEW ENG. THE 13-KM RUC MODEL HAS BEEN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF EACH OF THESE FEATURES WELL SO FAR TDY...AND WE`VE LEANED HEAVILY ON ITS OUTPUT GOING FORWARD...WITH SOME SUPPORT NOW INDICATED FROM THE 12Z EC...CANADIAN...AND LOCAL WRF MODELS. WE EXPECT THE MAIN SNOW BAND OVER CNY ATTM TO SLOW ITS WWD PROGRESS THROUGH THIS EVE AND BROADEN OUT...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE CLOSED MID TO UPPER-LVL LOW FROM THE S. A NARROW BAND OF FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO DVLP THIS EVE (00-06Z) UNDERNEATH STG MID-LYR FGEN FORCING...ON THE NRN/WRN SIDES OF THE 700-500 MB LOW. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FUTURE HEAVIER SNOW BAND IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...THE MOST LIKELY POSITION IS JUST E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR (FROM NE PA INTO ERN BROOME/ERN CHENANGO CNTYS...AND THE WRN CATSKILLS). AS THE CLOSED MID-UPR LVL CIRCULATION LIFTS FURTHER INTO NEW ENG AFTER 06Z...THE STEADIEST/HVYST SNOWFALL SHOULD EXIT THE RGN FROM SW TO NE. BY ARND DAYBREAK...THIS EVENT SHOULD BE OVER FOR OUR CWA. ON FRI...A NRN STREAM S/WV...SEEN ON SAT IMAGERY OVER UPR MI/NRN WI ATTM...IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACRS THE RGN. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT AS A "KICKER" TO MOVE OUR PRESENT STORM FURTHER AWAY INTO THE N ATLANTIC...IT WILL ALSO HELP BRING SOME LIGHTER SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS BACK OVER CNY/NE PA...WITH AREAS SE OF LK ONT SEEING A BIT OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT...WITHIN NWLY LOW-LVL FLOW. ANY ADDTNL SNOWFALL AMTS ON FRI SHOULD BE LIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...ONE FRI NGT/SAT MRNG AND ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY. MAY SEE MINOR ACCUMS ACRS NE PA ON SAT NGT. LAKE RESPONSE BEHIND THESE CLIPPERS PER FCST PROFILES SUGGESTS WEAK/MINOR LES EVENTS. GIVEN TDA`S FOCUS ON SHORT TERM...WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS POTNL WITH LATER FCSTS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LOWER HEIGHTS DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A BROADENING OF THE FLOW TO QUASI-ZONAL ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. THIS SUGGESTS A GRADUAL WARM UP WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE WEEK WITH RATHER RAPID TRANSITING SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. A COUPLE QUICK HITTING FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MON NITE-TUES AND THEN AGAIN THURS NITE-FRI TIME PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW...WITH A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN EVENT POSSIBLE WITH THE LATTER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE EAST. THE WX SYSTEMS WILL BE MINOR...BUT THE MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RIPEN AND MELT A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK WITH AREA RIVERS RESPONDING TO THE RUNOFF. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT TERMINALS WITH WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. AT KSYR, CONDITIONS WILL OCCASIONALLY FALL BELOW ALT MIN THROUGH 08Z. AFTER 09Z, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO JUST MVFR AS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS EAST OF REGION. AFTER 12Z, RESTRICTIONS WILL JUST BE DUE TO CIGS WITH MVFR/LOW VFR EXPECTED. LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE. TONIGHT, W/SW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... SAT/SUN...VARIABLE MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. SUN NGT...VFR. MON...BECOMING MVFR. CHC WINTRY MIX. TUE...VFR/MVFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ039- 040-043-044-047-048-072. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009- 018-036-037-044>046-056-057-062. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ015>017-022>025-055. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
959 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN INTENSE LOW ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. MAIN STORY WILL BE WINDS...STRONG NW-W WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND. STRATO-CU ACROSS SE CT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH SCT AFT INSTABILITY CU...EXCEPT A PERIOD OF BKN INSTABILITY CU ACROSS NW INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE AREA BETWEEN STORMS AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING PASSING OHD...TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSE TO AVG...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A LITTLE SNOW MELT. MID TO UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CITY/COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND THEN CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER MAINLY VIA THE RR QUAD OF A 100+ KT H3 JET OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND...AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON DEEP LAYER SW FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM NYC ON WEST. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM BELOW IN THE LONG TERM SECTION... && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... POPS INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING OVER OR NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVERYWHERE...HOWEVER A BRIEF CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON JUST HOW CLOSE THE LOW PASSES TO LONG ISLAND. THE MODELS KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION OFF SHORE WITH QPF VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. BASED ON SNOWFALL RATIOS AND TEMPERATURES...THIS WOULD BRING THE REGION ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS THE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. MOST MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z GFS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST STARTS TO BUILD IN. YET ANOTHER BUT WEAKER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SUNDAY. THIS IS MORE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS TIME...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN JET STREAM STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THIS SCENARIO WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF SNOW EXPECTED IF ANY AT ALL. POPS FOR THIS EVENT ARE ONLY AT SLIGHT CHANCE. THE MORE DOMINANT FEATURE WILL BE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE AROUND 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THIS IS OF RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE BUT IS DEPICTED STRONGER WITH THE ECMWF. THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT WILL CREATE ENHANCED LIFT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...ADDING TO THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS IS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE CLOSE TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PARENT LOW IS FURTHER NORTH IN THIS CASE SO THIS WILL PRESENT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT BUT ENOUGH WARMING ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO END AS RAIN. BY TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER DRY BUT GRADUALLY MODERATING PERIOD AS FLOW ALOFT IS QUASI-ZONAL AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH A BRIEF RETURN OF RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE. THE LESS MERIDIONAL AND MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE OVERALL MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS. LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH AND WEST WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...LEFT AS SLIGHT CHANCE. BOTH SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE MODERATING AIR MASS...THIS IS CONVEYING MORE OF A RAIN EVENT. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. VFR. SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KGON WILL LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z. WEST FLOW 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT DEVELOPING SAT MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND A NE FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .SAT...IFR IN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ENDING IN THE EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. NW WIND AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. SNOW PSBL BY MON EVENING BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. .TUE...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... WESTERLY GALES CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. GUSTS ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS COULD APPROACH STORM FORCE THIS MORNING. GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS TODAY...AND INTO THE EVENING ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS. OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN STEADY AT 15 TO 17 FT OUT EAST...AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT EXPECTED ON ERN LONG ISLAND SOUND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE LATER TONIGHT WITH THE LOW PULLING VERY FAR AWAY FURTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MAKE THIS GRADIENT MORE DIFFUSE. HOWEVER...SEAS ABOVE 5 FT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS. SCA CONDS EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT LOW AS IT DEEPENS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN ONCE AGAIN. SCA GUSTS SHOULD THEN LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEKEND FOR MOST WATERS. THEN SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... QPE OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FELL WITH THE DEPARTING STORM. EXPECT AROUND 1-3 TENTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WITH THE LOW ON SAT...AS WELL AS 0.1 TO 0.3 INCH LIQUID MON NIGHT INTO TUE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 12 FT AT THE OCEAN FACING SHORELINES...AND MINOR BEACH EROSION. && .EQUIPMENT... DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE. DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081- 178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ335-338. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345- 355. GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...MPS/DW MARINE...BC/GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
739 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN INTENSE LOW ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LAST OF THE SNOW BANDS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT THE NEXT HOUR. SPS IN AFFECT TO ADDRESS SLIPPERY DRIVING FROM SNOW...BLACK ICE AND PONDING OF WATER FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM SW-NE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. STRONG NW-W WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH WILL OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM...STRONGEST ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND. A SHORT FUSED WIND ADVY COULD BE ISSUED IF WINDS EARLY THIS AM ARE STRONGER THAN FCST. WITH THE AREA BETWEEN STORMS AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING PASSING OHD... TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSE TO AVG...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A LITTLE SNOW MELT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND THEN CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER MAINLY VIA THE RR QUAD OF A 100+ KT H3 JET OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND...AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON DEEP LAYER SW FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM NYC ON WEST. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM BELOW IN THE LONG TERM SECTION... && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... POPS INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING OVER OR NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVERYWHERE...HOWEVER A BRIEF CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON JUST HOW CLOSE THE LOW PASSES TO LONG ISLAND. THE MODELS KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION OFF SHORE WITH QPF VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. BASED ON SNOWFALL RATIOS AND TEMPERATURES...THIS WOULD BRING THE REGION ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS THE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. MOST MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z GFS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST STARTS TO BUILD IN. YET ANOTHER BUT WEAKER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SUNDAY. THIS IS MORE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS TIME...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN JET STREAM STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THIS SCENARIO WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF SNOW EXPECTED IF ANY AT ALL. POPS FOR THIS EVENT ARE ONLY AT SLIGHT CHANCE. THE MORE DOMINANT FEATURE WILL BE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE AROUND 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THIS IS OF RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE BUT IS DEPICTED STRONGER WITH THE ECMWF. THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT WILL CREATE ENHANCED LIFT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...ADDING TO THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS IS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE CLOSE TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PARENT LOW IS FURTHER NORTH IN THIS CASE SO THIS WILL PRESENT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT BUT ENOUGH WARMING ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO END AS RAIN. BY TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER DRY BUT GRADUALLY MODERATING PERIOD AS FLOW ALOFT IS QUASI-ZONAL AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH A BRIEF RETURN OF RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE. THE LESS MERIDIONAL AND MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE OVERALL MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS. LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH AND WEST WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...LEFT AS SLIGHT CHANCE. BOTH SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE MODERATING AIR MASS...THIS IS CONVEYING MORE OF A RAIN EVENT. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH G30-35 KT. FLOW DIMINISHES TOWARD EVENING...THEN BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT DEVELOPING SAT MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND A NE FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .SAT...IFR IN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ENDING IN THE EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. NW WIND AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. SNOW PSBL BY MON EVENING BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. .TUE...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... WESTERLY GALES HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE OCEAN...AND EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. GUSTS ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS COULD APPROACH STORM FORCE THIS MORNING. EXTENDED GALE WARNING LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND...AND INTO THE EVENING ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS. OCEAN SEAS HAVE PEAKED AT CLOSE TO 15 FT OUT EAST..AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. SEAS UP TO 7 FT EXPECTED ON ERN LONG ISLAND SOUND THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE LATER FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOW PULLING VERY FAR AWAY FURTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MAKE THIS GRADIENT MORE DIFFUSE. HOWEVER...SEAS ABOVE 5 FT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS. SCA CONDS EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT LOW AS IT DEEPENS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN ONCE AGAIN. SCA GUSTS SHOULD THEN LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEKEND FOR MOST WATERS. THEN SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... QPE OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FELL WITH THE DEPARTING STORM. EXPECT AROUND 1-3 TENTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WITH THE LOW ON SAT...AS WELL AS 0.1 TO 0.3 INCH LIQUID MON NIGHT INTO TUE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 12 FT AT THE OCEAN FACING SHORELINES...AND MINOR BEACH EROSION. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081- 178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ335-338. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345- 355. GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...DW MARINE...BC/GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
514 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN INTENSE LOW ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW BANDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...NOW NEAR CAPE COD PER SAT WV IMAGERY...CONTINUE. COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW BEFORE PRECIP WINDS DOWN BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NYC METRO...AND SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG ISLAND. WILL LET WSW EXPIRE AND CONVERT TO SPS TO ADDRESS SLIPPERY DRIVING FROM SNOW...BLACK ICE AND PONDING OF WATER FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM SW-NE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. STRONG NW-W WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH WILL OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM...STRONGEST ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND. A SHORT FUSED WIND ADVY COULD BE ISSUED IF WINDS EARLY THIS AM ARE STRONGER THAN FCST. WITH THE AREA BETWEEN STORMS AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING PASSING OHD... TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSE TO AVG...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A LITTLE SNOW MELT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND THEN CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER MAINLY VIA THE RR QUAD OF A 100+ KT H3 JET OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND...AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON DEEP LAYER SW FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM NYC ON WEST. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM BELOW IN THE LONG TERM SECTION... && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... POPS INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING OVER OR NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVERYWHERE...HOWEVER A BRIEF CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON JUST HOW CLOSE THE LOW PASSES TO LONG ISLAND. THE MODELS KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION OFF SHORE WITH QPF VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. BASED ON SNOWFALL RATIOS AND TEMPERATURES...THIS WOULD BRING THE REGION ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS THE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. MOST MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z GFS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST STARTS TO BUILD IN. YET ANOTHER BUT WEAKER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SUNDAY. THIS IS MORE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS TIME...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN JET STREAM STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THIS SCENARIO WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF SNOW EXPECTED IF ANY AT ALL. POPS FOR THIS EVENT ARE ONLY AT SLIGHT CHANCE. THE MORE DOMINANT FEATURE WILL BE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE AROUND 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THIS IS OF RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE BUT IS DEPICTED STRONGER WITH THE ECMWF. THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT WILL CREATE ENHANCED LIFT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...ADDING TO THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS IS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE CLOSE TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PARENT LOW IS FURTHER NORTH IN THIS CASE SO THIS WILL PRESENT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT BUT ENOUGH WARMING ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO END AS RAIN. BY TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER DRY BUT GRADUALLY MODERATING PERIOD AS FLOW ALOFT IS QUASI-ZONAL AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH A BRIEF RETURN OF RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE. THE LESS MERIDIONAL AND MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE OVERALL MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS. LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH AND WEST WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...LEFT AS SLIGHT CHANCE. BOTH SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE MODERATING AIR MASS...THIS IS CONVEYING MORE OF A RAIN EVENT. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BACK EDGE OF SNOW BANDS WILL PUSH ACROSS NYC METRO BY 11Z...AND FAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 13Z. SEEING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH THESE BANDS...BUT BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SNOW TOTALS FROM 09Z THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST FLOW THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS MORNING MAY VARY BY AS MUCH AS AN HOUR. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS MORNING MAY VARY BY AS MUCH AS AN HOUR. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS MORNING MAY VARY BY AS MUCH AS AN HOUR. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS MORNING MAY VARY BY AS MUCH AS AN HOUR. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS MORNING MAY VARY BY AS MUCH AS AN HOUR. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS MORNING MAY VARY BY AS MUCH AS AN HOUR. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .LATE FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR IN LIGHT SNOW. .SAT...IFR IN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ENDING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. NW WIND AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. SNOW PSBL BY MON EVENING BRINGING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. .TUE...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... WESTERLY GALES HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE OCEAN...AND EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. GUSTS ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS COULD APPROACH STORM FORCE THIS MORNING. EXTENDED GALE WARNING LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND...AND INTO THE EVENING ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS. OCEAN SEAS HAVE PEAKED AT CLOSE TO 15 FT OUT EAST..AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. SEAS UP TO 7 FT EXPECTED ON ERN LONG ISLAND SOUND THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE LATER FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOW PULLING VERY FAR AWAY FURTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MAKE THIS GRADIENT MORE DIFFUSE. HOWEVER...SEAS ABOVE 5 FT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS. SCA CONDS EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT LOW AS IT DEEPENS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN ONCE AGAIN. SCA GUSTS SHOULD THEN LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEKEND FOR MOST WATERS. THEN SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... QPE OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FELL WITH THE DEPARTING STORM. EXPECT AROUND 1-3 TENTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WITH THE LOW ON SAT...AS WELL AS 0.1 TO 0.3 INCH LIQUID MON NIGHT INTO TUE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 12 FT AT THE OCEAN FACING SHORELINES...AND MINOR BEACH EROSION. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081- 178-179. NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345- 355. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ335-338. GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...DW MARINE...BC/GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 .UPDATE... THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 254 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ONE TODAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ADDITIONAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS MAY AFFECT THE AREA AROUND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS WELL AS AROUND THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 1012 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 15Z UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE NEXT LINE OR TWO OF COUNTIES NORTHWARD...BASED ON OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR ANALYSIS. THESE COUNTIES WILL LIKELY NOT RECEIVE THE 4" AVERAGE OF ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL...THOUGH SOME COUNTIES MAY COME CLOSE. AM CONCERNED ABOUT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THIS WAS MORE THE REASONING FOR ISSUING THIS ADVISORY FARTHER NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SYSTEM...CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS...ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT MIDDAY AND SUNSET. WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS STARTING AFTER ABOUT 141700Z...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTH. STILL LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 2-4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS OVER THE FAR NORTH. WILL NEED TO ADJUST THE STARTING TIME OF THE ADVISORY MORE TOWARDS THE MIDDAY HOURS TO BETTER REFLECT THE ANTICIPATED STARTING TIME OF THE SNOW. PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TODAY GENERALLY SUPPORT THE GFS MOS HIGHS. LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 254 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 TODAY/S SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA BY SUNSET. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TO COVER ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT APPEARS MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER BY THEN. NEXT DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER THAN TODAY/S...BUT STILL BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...AND RATHER HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE WARM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL NUDGE DOWN THE GUIDANCE A BIT IN THOSE AREA. THE GFS MOS HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK A LITTLE COLD...SO WILL ADJUST THEM UP A BIT THERE. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE AND CONSISTENT OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ADVERTISING A FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH TWO EMBEDDED SYSTEMS. THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MORNING WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SUGGEST ALL RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE FREEZING MENTION OUT FOR NOW AT LEAST BEING THAT FAR OUT AND WITH ONLY A FEW HOURS AT BEST SUITABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN. MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING A MODERATELY STRONG BUT FAST MOVING SYSTEM. SO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE RAINFALL TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO EFFECT THE RIVERS MUCH OTHER THAN FROM THE MELTING SNOW THAT COULD BE EQUIVALENT TO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BRING MORE PRECIPITATION IN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS...CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES ALL SUGGEST JUST RAIN. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...BUT EITHER WAY...ALL THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE ONLY PRODUCING MODERATE QPF AT THIS POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FAST AS WELL. WITH THE MODELS AND MODEL TRENDS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WILL ACCEPT THE REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THE 50S AND 60S BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 141500Z TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 920 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL BE SEEN AS BAND OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS MARCHES STEADILY EAST. HAVE LOWERED INDY TAF DOWN TO HIGH END IFR FOR NOW AND WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON DEVELOPMENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE AFTER 16Z AS WEAK SURFACE SYSTEM PIVOTS EAST NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TODAY AND FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY A QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH. MORE CONFIDENT THAT BMG AND HUF WILL SEE IFR AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL BE DOWN THERE. LEAST CONFIDENT IN CONDITIONS AT LAF...BUT MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW LOOKS OK...AS NOTHING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED THERE. IND SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BETWEENER. THE SNOW SHOULD END AFTER 23Z WITH CLEARING TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AROUND THE SAME TIME. WINDS SHOULD DROP TO 10 KNOTS OR BELOW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES TODAY. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ035>037-039>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAS NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS SHORT TERM...JAS LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...MK/50 VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
941 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS THROUGHOUT ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE LIGHT SNOW RESPONSE ON KDTX AND NEIGHBORS 0.5 Z STEADILY INCREASING SINCE 8 AM. MECHANISMS FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE VIRTUALLY NON EXIST ANT IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WHICH MAKES THINGS PESKY. 12Z KDTX RAOB SHOWS SATURATION THROUGH 9 KFT AGL...THROUGH -16C. NAM AND RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH MORE LIMITED IN MOISTURE DEPTH AND LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE RUN TIMES. THIS POINTS TO THE NWP STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MOISTURE FIELDS AND PROVIDES LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THE NOW TERM. QUALITATIVELY...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL STRIP OR SHEAR OUT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...PERHAPS EVEN PIVOTING DOWN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. QUANTITATIVELY...CONVERGENCE VALUES DON/T MATCH BUT THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION THAT WE ARE DEALING WITH A LOW LEVEL OCCLUDED FRONTAL TYPE FEATURE. WILL CARRY THE HIGHER POPS INTO NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER MOISTURE THAN ADVERTISED AND RELAY TO FLURRIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. BETTER CORRIDOR FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIST BETWEEN I 94 TO I 69 THROUGH NOON...ALIGNED UNDER WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL THETA E PLUME. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN A NON-ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID 20S. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 649 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 //DISCUSSION... WESTERLY WINDS (10-20 KNOTS) AND ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING SHOULD ASSURE MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING. DIURNAL EFFECTS AND SUBTLE DRYING WILL TEND TO LIFT CEILINGS...POTENTIALLY CLIMBING INTO LOW VFR. FLURRIES/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE AROUND INTO THIS AFTERNOON (BUT COVERAGE/TIMING CONCERNS PRECLUDES MENTION IN TAFS). MORE PRONOUNCED DRYING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS WINDS COME OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. //DTW THRESHOLD THREATS... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 315 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING AND WILL BE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AS PW VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL...WITH WEAKENING LOW EXITING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...STILL PROBABLY SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (925-850 MB)/CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT A FEW FLURRIES/ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS MODEST COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT WITH FLARE UP OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE DIURNAL CYCLE. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BASED ON CURRENT READINGS AND FACTORING UPSTREAM OBS IN THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS HOLDING UP TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING A HUGE DROP OFF IN TEMPS...AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM LATEST GUIDANCE (SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER TEENS). LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE CONTROLLING LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR MOST OF THIS WINTER SHOWING SIGNS OF FINALLY BREAKING DOWN...AS DOMINANT CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE STEADILY RETREATS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC. THIS ADJUSTMENT WILL ALLOW THE MAIN WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER RIDGE/ HIGHER HEIGHTS TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS PROCESS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF THAT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OF ARCTIC ORIGIN...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH A RESPITE FROM THE RELENTLESS INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR BY NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A FULL PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD AN EASTERN RIDGE/WESTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SPELL A SIZABLE WARMING TREND TO FINISH THE WEEK /TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S/. COLDER START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW HOLDING FIRM AT THE EDGE OF SLOWLY ENCROACHING WESTERN CONUS SHORTWAVE RIDGING. ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL EASE ON SATURDAY. EXISTING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL LEAVE 925 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -13C RANGE. INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL DRYING WITHIN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WORK TO ERODE ANY MOIST LAYER STILL TUCKED BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION. THIS POINTS TOWARD AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE, ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF THE THERMAL TROUGH SUGGESTS SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU EXPANSION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE A STRUGGLE REGARDLESS...HIGHS UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S. ONE FINAL ARCTIC CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL WINDOW FOR A CLEAR SKY SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS ARRIVES. FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER SE MICHIGAN WILL CERTAINLY AID IN THE TEMPERATURE FREEFALL THAT EVENING. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. THE WAVE ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK IMPULSE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. PV ANALYSIS SUGGESTS JUST ENOUGH SEPARATION WITH THESE FEATURES TO MAINTAIN A SUPPRESSED DYNAMIC RESPONSE AS THE LOWER HEIGHT FIELDS WORKS DOWNSTREAM. THE BROADER UPTICK IN FORCING INTO MODEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SE MICHIGAN WILL LIE AT THE INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE EXITING LOWER HEIGHTS AND THE INBOUND SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY, ENSURING ANY THERMAL ADVECTION REMAINS NEUTRAL AND THE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE DICTATED BY A GENERAL RISE IN MEAN THICKNESSES. HIGHS 20 TO 25F. DEEPENING SFC-850 MB SOUTHERLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO AN ELONGATED CORRIDOR OF HEIGHTS FALLS QUICKLY EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROMPT A STEADY NORTHWARD INCREASE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE CORRESPONDING WING OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF ASCENT WILL AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN VORTICITY CENTER TOWARD MONDAY EVENING, A WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PROGRESSIVELY DEEPEN ON THE SOUTHERN END AS SOME DEGREE OF PHASING/MERGING OCCURS WITH THE NORTHERN PV FILAMENT. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE EXTENT...TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THIS PROCESS MAINTAINS A HIGHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN DEFINING THE EXACT DETAILS. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH PRESENT A PERIOD OF STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AS THE WAVE TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT UPON ARRIVAL. THIS RETAINS HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR A GOOD SHOT AT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. A WARMING THERMAL PROFILE WILL REMAIN SENSITIVE IN MAGNITUDE TO ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO MASS FIELDS UPSTREAM GOING FORWARD. A LARGELY ZONAL WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW CAPPING THE LOW LEVEL ADVECTIVE PROCESS MAY TEND TO CONTAIN THE DEPTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SOME DEGREE. A CHECK OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOUNDING DATA AND THICKNESSES WOULD LEAVE A LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW. HOWEVER THIS PROFILE MAY SHOW SOME COLD BIAS NOW DUE TO THE EXISTING SNOWPACK. THEREFORE NOT YET INCLINED TO PROVIDE ANY GREATER DEFINITION TO THE PTYPE, RETAINING A SIMPLISTIC RAIN/SNOW MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CORRIDOR. MARINE... A RATHER RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A GUSTY SOUTHEAST WIND WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF STRENGTHEN LOW PRESSURE ON MONDAY. SUBSTANTIAL ICE COVERAGE ACROSS ALL MARINE AREAS WILL KEEP WAVES ABSENT FROM ALL FORECAST PRODUCTS. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE.......CB AVIATION.....SF SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM....MR MARINE.......MR YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
445 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014 UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA AT THE CURRENT TIME. A DECENT AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND DPVA AHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW... WHICH IS JUST CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO PRESENT... WITH SOME COUPLING WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS APPARENT IN CROSS-SECTIONS FROM THE RAP AND NAM. LUCKILY IT IS MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY AND GENERALLY AVOIDING OUR AREA... AND SHOULD ONLY WARRANT SOME LOW POPS AT THE VERY START OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE TODAY... ALTHOUGH ANOTHER QUICKLY MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ALONG A SIMILAR PATH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THAT FEATURE IS JUST PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIDGE AT THE CURRENT TIME... AND LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE POTENT THAN THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER... ITS IMPACTS STILL APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WILL BE FELT ON SATURDAY. SO... FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER WAVE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA REASONABLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORK INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER... CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER TODAY AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A NORTHWEST WIND TO KEEP WIND CHILLS NEAR OR A BIT BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD DROP QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING... WITH SOME RECOVERY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION START TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWFA. AT THIS POINT... IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH DURING THE EVENING FOR MSP TO GET ANOTHER BELOW ZERO DAY... AND TIMING COULD ACTUALLY PROVIDE A 2-FOR-1 WITH THINGS PERHAPS DIPPING BELOW ZERO PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND REMAINING THAT WAY FOR A WHILE AFTERWARD... ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. KEPT POPS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH THAT COULD ALSO BE A CLOSE CALL... WITH THINGS QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014 SNOW ENSUES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AMOUNTS STILL LOOKS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH A TYPICAL ALBERTA CLIPPER...WITH WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 2.5 INCH TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOUTHERN MN SEEING THE AMOUNTS ON THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE POSSIBLY INCHING ABOVE THE 3 INCH MARK. AS DENDRITIC LAYER MOISTURE IS LOST TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT THIS WOULD BE MINIMAL AND PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN MN. BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES ATTEMPT TO MARRY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARMER WITH THIS EVENT...SO MIXED PRECIP IS A POSSIBILITY. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THEN BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHICH WILL MEAN THE CONTINUANCE OF MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIP. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 435 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014 SYSTEM CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MID MORNING... BUT THINGS SHOULD STAY VFR WITH RESPECT TO WHAT IT PRODUCES OVER OUR AREA. HOWEVER... SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH PATCHY SUB 2K FT CEILINGS SLIPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. INCLUDED SOME SCT020 AT KMSP AND A TEMPO CEILING FOR KSTC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS. THE RAP AND NAM BOTH PICK UP ON THIS REASONABLY WELL IN THEIR RH FIELDS... AND SUGGEST IT SHOULD WANE AS IT DROPS SOUTH. KEAU WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME OF THE SAME... WITH THE MORE EXTENSIVE CEILINGS JUST EAST OF THERE. OTHERWISE... WE WILL GENERALLY SEE QUIET CONDITIONS TODAY AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE... WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY... MAINLY AFTER 18Z. DID INCLUDE SOME LIGHT SNOW AT KMSP RIGHT AT THE TAIL END OF THINGS... SINCE TIMING BRINGS IT INTO THE AREA RIGHT AROUND 18Z. KMSP...MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF CEILINGS AROUND 2K FT AGL DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST... THEN WITH THE TIMING OF LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ON SATURDAY AS LIGHT SNOW WORKS INTO THE AREA. TIMING ON SATURDAY COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN INDICATED... ALTHOUGH THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING IN PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THERE ARE ALSO SOME VFR CEILINGS AROUND 6K FT AGL OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH MODELS SUGGEST WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY DROP SOUTH... BUT IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER THEY WOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH SNOW... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KT BECOMING NORTHEAST. SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED EARLY... MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. NORTH WIND 5 TO 10 KT. SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 KT. SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KT. MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 KT BECOMING SOUTHWEST. MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT. TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ UPDATE... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
414 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA AT THE CURRENT TIME. A DECENT AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND DPVA AHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW... WHICH IS JUST CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO PRESENT... WITH SOME COUPLING WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS APPARENT IN CROSS-SECTIONS FROM THE RAP AND NAM. LUCKILY IT IS MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY AND GENERALLY AVOIDING OUR AREA... AND SHOULD ONLY WARRANT SOME LOW POPS AT THE VERY START OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE TODAY... ALTHOUGH ANOTHER QUICKLY MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ALONG A SIMILAR PATH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THAT FEATURE IS JUST PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIDGE AT THE CURRENT TIME... AND LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE POTENT THAN THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER... ITS IMPACTS STILL APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WILL BE FELT ON SATURDAY. SO... FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER WAVE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA REASONABLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORK INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER... CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER TODAY AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A NORTHWEST WIND TO KEEP WIND CHILLS NEAR OR A BIT BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD DROP QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING... WITH SOME RECOVERY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION START TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWFA. AT THIS POINT... IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH DURING THE EVENING FOR MSP TO GET ANOTHER BELOW ZERO DAY... AND TIMING COULD ACTUALLY PROVIDE A 2-FOR-1 WITH THINGS PERHAPS DIPPING BELOW ZERO PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND REMAINING THAT WAY FOR A WHILE AFTERWARD... ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. KEPT POPS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH THAT COULD ALSO BE A CLOSE CALL... WITH THINGS QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014 SNOW ENSUES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AMOUNTS STILL LOOKS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH A TYPICAL ALBERTA CLIPPER...WITH WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 2.5 INCH TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOUTHERN MN SEEING THE AMOUNTS ON THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE POSSIBLY INCHING ABOVE THE 3 INCH MARK. AS DENDRITIC LAYER MOISTURE IS LOST TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT THIS WOULD BE MINIMAL AND PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN MN. BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES ATTEMPT TO MARRY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARMER WITH THIS EVENT...SO MIXED PRECIP IS A POSSIBILITY. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THEN BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHICH WILL MEAN THE CONTINUANCE OF MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIP. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014 ALL SITES VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. BKN MIDLVL DECKS WILL TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE W...MAINLY AFFECTING KRWF-KAXN-KSTC BY PRODUCING CEILINGS...BUT CIGS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SHIFTING EWD INTO ERN MN AND WRN WI SO HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY SCT COVERAGE FOR KMSP EWD. ALL SITES THEN SCATTER OUT DURG THE DAY TMRW AND REMAIN THERE THRU FRI EVE. ADDITIONAL MIDLVL CEILINGS MAY WELL DEVELOP TMRW EVE BUT AM GOING A MORE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE ATTM AND KEPT ALL SITES AS SCT THRU 06Z /WITH THE LATTER 6 HRS IN THE KMSP TAF GOING BKN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z/. WINDS TO REMAIN NW 5-10KT TNGT THRU TMRW BEFORE GOING LGT/VRBL TMRW EVE. KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH ONLY SCT COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AT BEST THRU TMRW EVE THEN BKN UPR LVL CIGS LIKELY GOING INTO SAT MRNG. MID-TO-UPR LVL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT WITH NO PRECIP. WINDS MAINLY 310-330 WITHIN 5-10KT OVERNIGHT THRU THE DAY TMRW...THEN SLIGHTLY BACKING TO NEAR DUE W WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS FRI EVE FOLLOWED BY LGT/VRBL WINDS OVERNIGHT. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR AND -SN WITH OCNL IFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KT. SUN...VFR. WINDS NE 5 KT BCMG SE 10-15 KT. MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SN. WINDS SW 10 KT BCMG W. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TRH LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1055 AM PST Fri Feb 14 2014 .Synopsis... Unsettled weather is expected into next week. A fetch of Pacific moisture will bring light rain to far northern California today and clouds elsewhere. More widespread precipitation is expected to spread south later Saturday bringing light rain to the valley and a quick burst of snow with gusty winds to the Sierra. A colder storm is possible next week. && .Discussion... A Pacific moisture plume of around 1.25" per latest blended total PWAT product remains mostly north of our forecast area today. Models hold it in the same area next 12 hours, if not shifting slightly northward, so not expecting much measurable precip for our area. Aircraft soundings and recent RUC soundings show a very dry layer below 500mb which isn`t helping. Can`t rule out a few drops from around Redding north today and tonight, but no appreciable amounts expected. The temperature forecast will be tricky today. Current low stratus deck in the Valley is still expected to break up by this afternoon, and with only thin cloud layers aloft, sun breaks could help Valley locations from around Sac southward to mix out and realize some of the very warm temps aloft. On the other hand, NAM 850mb temps are cooling from the north this afternoon. Have gone with the consensus of the bias-corrected models south of Sac where the warmest temps are expected (low 70s) and trended toward cooler non-bc consensus from around Red Bluff northward. No major changes needed to the previous forecast from tonight on. Still looking at a quick shot of rain and snow late Saturday and early Sunday with gusty winds at high elevations. Models are trending towards a quick exit Sunday, so it appears the only travel impacts would be Saturday night. -DVC .Previous Discussion...Issued 4AM PST A very mild and moist airmass remains over interior NorCal early this morning. Abundant mid and high clouds continue to move in from the west and southwest. The boundary layer is nearly saturated with many observing sites reporting dewpoints close to the temperature. A few isolated patches of fog have been reported overnight in the valley, but the abundant cloud cover has prevented the fog from becoming extensive. Mild temperatures early this morning generally in the lower to mid 50s in the valley and in the 30s and 40s in the mountains. Broad upper ridge along the west coast is amplifying a bit today as the upstream trough digs along 160W. This change has shifted the moisture plume and most precip back to the north across far northern California where it will likely remain through tonight. However, while much of the region will remain dry into Saturday, plenty of clouds will continue to stream up from the southwest resulting in mostly cloudy skies. Most of the valley is expected to warm up into the 60s to lower 70s today and overnight lows tonight will once again be mild. Approach of the upper trough will shift the moisture plume and frontal zone southward through interior NorCal on Saturday night into Sunday sending precip southward along with lowering snow levels and breezy/windy conditions. This will be a quick moving system compared to the one last weekend and QPF will be lighter - around a quarter inch or less in the valley, up to an inch and a half in the northern Sierra and one to three inches across the northern mountains. Accumulating snowfall will mostly be limited to elevations above 6500 feet where 4 to 8 inches will be possible along the northern Sierra crest later Saturday night into Sunday morning. Precip clears out quickly Sunday as the trough exits the area and short-wave ridging moves overhead. && .Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday) Mid range models in good agreement on cool Pacific frontal system progged to move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California during the day on Tuesday. GFS still somewhat drier with this system than the ECMWF but timing and position are similar. Snow levels with this system will be a bit lower than the system moving through over the weekend and are expected to continue to lower as subsequent Gulf of Alaska systems drop into the region. Models currently have a bit of a break between systems going for Wednesday but timing this far out is far from exact especially for the northern portions of the CWA so kept in chance category for the northern zones and slight chance farther south. A cold low dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to bring another round of precipitation to the entire CWA Thursday. Models vary more with this system with the Canadian model even keeping precipitation north of the CWA. Have gone with the GFS/ECMWF solution which are more consistant with each other and with recent system trends. This system which will contain more polar air will come with much lower snow levels. Shasta county will start out with snow levels dropping below 3000 feet. A more northerly upper flow on Friday will bring in even colder air with snow levels predicted below 3000 feet for the entire forecast area. Models back in good agreement next Friday going into next weekend in building a fairly substantial ridge of high pressure over the west coast so any precipitation Friday is likely to be very limited. && .Aviation... Weak Pacific frontal system riding over west coast ridge will bring isolated light rain north of about KOVE next 24 hours with low cigs bringing local IFR conditions. Morning BR over the northern San Joaquin valleys with local mFR conditions through about 20z this morning. Otherwise mainly VFR. South to southeast winds 5 to 15 kt for the Valley today, wit local gusts up to around 22 kt for the northern Sacramento Valley this afternoon. Local gusts to 50 knots over the highest Sierra peaks. EK && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1242 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN INTENSE LOW ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. MAIN STORY WILL BE WINDS...STRONG NW-W WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND. STRATO-CU ACROSS SE CT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH SCT AFT INSTABILITY CU...EXCEPT A PERIOD OF BKN INSTABILITY CU ACROSS NW INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE AREA BETWEEN STORMS AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING PASSING OHD...TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSE TO AVG...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A LITTLE SNOW MELT. MID TO UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CITY/COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND THEN CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER MAINLY VIA THE RR QUAD OF A 100+ KT H3 JET OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND...AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON DEEP LAYER SW FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM NYC ON WEST. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM BELOW IN THE LONG TERM SECTION... && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... POPS INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING OVER OR NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVERYWHERE...HOWEVER A BRIEF CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON JUST HOW CLOSE THE LOW PASSES TO LONG ISLAND. THE MODELS KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION OFF SHORE WITH QPF VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. BASED ON SNOWFALL RATIOS AND TEMPERATURES...THIS WOULD BRING THE REGION ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS THE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. MOST MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z GFS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST STARTS TO BUILD IN. YET ANOTHER BUT WEAKER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SUNDAY. THIS IS MORE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS TIME...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN JET STREAM STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THIS SCENARIO WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF SNOW EXPECTED IF ANY AT ALL. POPS FOR THIS EVENT ARE ONLY AT SLIGHT CHANCE. THE MORE DOMINANT FEATURE WILL BE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE AROUND 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THIS IS OF RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE BUT IS DEPICTED STRONGER WITH THE ECMWF. THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT WILL CREATE ENHANCED LIFT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...ADDING TO THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS IS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE CLOSE TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PARENT LOW IS FURTHER NORTH IN THIS CASE SO THIS WILL PRESENT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT BUT ENOUGH WARMING ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO END AS RAIN. BY TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER DRY BUT GRADUALLY MODERATING PERIOD AS FLOW ALOFT IS QUASI-ZONAL AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH A BRIEF RETURN OF RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE. THE LESS MERIDIONAL AND MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE OVERALL MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS. LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH AND WEST WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...LEFT AS SLIGHT CHANCE. BOTH SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE MODERATING AIR MASS...THIS IS CONVEYING MORE OF A RAIN EVENT. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. ANY LINGERING BKN-OVC 3000 FT CIGS WILL BREAK UP BY 19-20Z. WEST WINDS 20-30G30-40KT THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT BY 05Z...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEREAFTER. NE FLOW AROUND 10 KT DEVELOPS SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CONDS SATURDAY MORNING. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ***LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A HIGH-IMPACT EVENT ON SATURDAY*** .SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...IFR CONDS IN MODERATE SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF OVER 1" PER HOUR POSSIBLE. SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS 15-20G20-30KT FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. .SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS. .MONDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDS IN LIGHT SNOW. .TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY. .WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... WESTERLY GALES CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. GUSTS ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS COULD APPROACH STORM FORCE THIS MORNING. GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS TODAY...AND INTO THE EVENING ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS. OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN STEADY AT 15 TO 17 FT OUT EAST...AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT EXPECTED ON ERN LONG ISLAND SOUND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE LATER TONIGHT WITH THE LOW PULLING VERY FAR AWAY FURTHER INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HELP MAKE THIS GRADIENT MORE DIFFUSE. HOWEVER...SEAS ABOVE 5 FT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS. SCA CONDS EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT LOW AS IT DEEPENS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN ONCE AGAIN. SCA GUSTS SHOULD THEN LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEKEND FOR MOST WATERS. THEN SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... QPE OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FELL WITH THE DEPARTING STORM. EXPECT AROUND 1-3 TENTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF WITH THE LOW ON SAT...AS WELL AS 0.1 TO 0.3 INCH LIQUID MON NIGHT INTO TUE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 12 FT AT THE OCEAN FACING SHORELINES...AND MINOR BEACH EROSION. && .EQUIPMENT... DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE. DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081- 178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-355. GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...MPS MARINE...BC/GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1151 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 254 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ONE TODAY AND ANOTHER AROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ADDITIONAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS MAY AFFECT THE AREA AROUND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS WELL AS AROUND THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 1012 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 15Z UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE NEXT LINE OR TWO OF COUNTIES NORTHWARD...BASED ON OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR ANALYSIS. THESE COUNTIES WILL LIKELY NOT RECEIVE THE 4" AVERAGE OF ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL...THOUGH SOME COUNTIES MAY COME CLOSE. AM CONCERNED ABOUT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THIS WAS MORE THE REASONING FOR ISSUING THIS ADVISORY FARTHER NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SYSTEM...CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS...ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT MIDDAY AND SUNSET. WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS STARTING AFTER ABOUT 141700Z...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTH. STILL LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 2-4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS OVER THE FAR NORTH. WILL NEED TO ADJUST THE STARTING TIME OF THE ADVISORY MORE TOWARDS THE MIDDAY HOURS TO BETTER REFLECT THE ANTICIPATED STARTING TIME OF THE SNOW. PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TODAY GENERALLY SUPPORT THE GFS MOS HIGHS. LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 254 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 TODAY/S SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE AREA BY SUNSET. WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TO COVER ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT APPEARS MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER BY THEN. NEXT DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS WEAKER THAN TODAY/S...BUT STILL BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...AND RATHER HIGH POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE WARM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL NUDGE DOWN THE GUIDANCE A BIT IN THOSE AREA. THE GFS MOS HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK A LITTLE COLD...SO WILL ADJUST THEM UP A BIT THERE. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 249 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE AND CONSISTENT OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ADVERTISING A FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH TWO EMBEDDED SYSTEMS. THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. COULD SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MORNING WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SUGGEST ALL RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE FREEZING MENTION OUT FOR NOW AT LEAST BEING THAT FAR OUT AND WITH ONLY A FEW HOURS AT BEST SUITABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN. MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING A MODERATELY STRONG BUT FAST MOVING SYSTEM. SO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE RAINFALL TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO EFFECT THE RIVERS MUCH OTHER THAN FROM THE MELTING SNOW THAT COULD BE EQUIVALENT TO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BRING MORE PRECIPITATION IN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS...CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES ALL SUGGEST JUST RAIN. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...BUT EITHER WAY...ALL THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE ONLY PRODUCING MODERATE QPF AT THIS POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FAST AS WELL. WITH THE MODELS AND MODEL TRENDS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WILL ACCEPT THE REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THE 50S AND 60S BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 141800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1151 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z WITH IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST 6 HOURS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING THEN VFR RETURNS OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 1/2SM WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO END BY 21Z WITH SNOW ENDING BY 23-00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 06-8Z BEFORE CEILINGS BREAK. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNRISE BUT ODDS AREN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF SET. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ035>037-039>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAS NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS SHORT TERM...JAS LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...50 VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1256 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 .AVIATION... //DISCUSSION... LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY THAT INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING IS LIFTING NORTHWARD. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS WHICH SUPPORTS THAT ALL PRECIPITATION GENERATION IS OCCURRING UNDER A LOW LEVEL OCCLUSION. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT UP INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE THUMB DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE STRINGING OUT WITH TIME. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION TO FLURRIES BEFORE DISSIPATING THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOWERING SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP CLOUDS LIFT AND THIN WITH TIME. SCT TO FEW COVERAGE AT 020 TO 030 IS EXPECTED BY TOMORROW MORNING. //DTW THRESHOLD THREATS... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 941 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 UPDATE... ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS THROUGHOUT ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE LIGHT SNOW RESPONSE ON KDTX AND NEIGHBORS 0.5 Z STEADILY INCREASING SINCE 8 AM. MECHANISMS FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE VIRTUALLY NON EXIST ANT IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WHICH MAKES THINGS PESKY. 12Z KDTX RAOB SHOWS SATURATION THROUGH 9 KFT AGL...THROUGH -16C. NAM AND RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH MORE LIMITED IN MOISTURE DEPTH AND LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE RUN TIMES. THIS POINTS TO THE NWP STRUGGLING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MOISTURE FIELDS AND PROVIDES LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THE NOW TERM. QUALITATIVELY...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL STRIP OR SHEAR OUT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...PERHAPS EVEN PIVOTING DOWN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. QUANTITATIVELY...CONVERGENCE VALUES DON/T MATCH BUT THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION THAT WE ARE DEALING WITH A LOW LEVEL OCCLUDED FRONTAL TYPE FEATURE. WILL CARRY THE HIGHER POPS INTO NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER MOISTURE THAN ADVERTISED AND RELAY TO FLURRIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. BETTER CORRIDOR FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIST BETWEEN I 94 TO I 69 THROUGH NOON...ALIGNED UNDER WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL THETA E PLUME. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN A NON-ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID 20S. PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 315 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING AND WILL BE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH 850-700 MB THETA-E MINIMUM HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AS PW VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL...WITH WEAKENING LOW EXITING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...STILL PROBABLY SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (925-850 MB)/CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT A FEW FLURRIES/ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS MODEST COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT WITH FLARE UP OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE DIURNAL CYCLE. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BASED ON CURRENT READINGS AND FACTORING UPSTREAM OBS IN THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS HOLDING UP TONIGHT...NOT EXPECTING A HUGE DROP OFF IN TEMPS...AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM LATEST GUIDANCE (SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER TEENS). LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE CONTROLLING LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR MOST OF THIS WINTER SHOWING SIGNS OF FINALLY BREAKING DOWN...AS DOMINANT CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE STEADILY RETREATS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC. THIS ADJUSTMENT WILL ALLOW THE MAIN WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER RIDGE/ HIGHER HEIGHTS TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS PROCESS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF THAT DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OF ARCTIC ORIGIN...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH A RESPITE FROM THE RELENTLESS INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR BY NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A FULL PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD AN EASTERN RIDGE/WESTERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SPELL A SIZABLE WARMING TREND TO FINISH THE WEEK /TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S/. COLDER START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW HOLDING FIRM AT THE EDGE OF SLOWLY ENCROACHING WESTERN CONUS SHORTWAVE RIDGING. ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL EASE ON SATURDAY. EXISTING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL LEAVE 925 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -13C RANGE. INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL DRYING WITHIN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WORK TO ERODE ANY MOIST LAYER STILL TUCKED BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION. THIS POINTS TOWARD AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE, ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF THE THERMAL TROUGH SUGGESTS SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU EXPANSION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE A STRUGGLE REGARDLESS...HIGHS UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S. ONE FINAL ARCTIC CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL WINDOW FOR A CLEAR SKY SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS ARRIVES. FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER SE MICHIGAN WILL CERTAINLY AID IN THE TEMPERATURE FREEFALL THAT EVENING. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. THE WAVE ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK IMPULSE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. PV ANALYSIS SUGGESTS JUST ENOUGH SEPARATION WITH THESE FEATURES TO MAINTAIN A SUPPRESSED DYNAMIC RESPONSE AS THE LOWER HEIGHT FIELDS WORKS DOWNSTREAM. THE BROADER UPTICK IN FORCING INTO MODEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SE MICHIGAN WILL LIE AT THE INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE EXITING LOWER HEIGHTS AND THE INBOUND SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY, ENSURING ANY THERMAL ADVECTION REMAINS NEUTRAL AND THE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE DICTATED BY A GENERAL RISE IN MEAN THICKNESSES. HIGHS 20 TO 25F. DEEPENING SFC-850 MB SOUTHERLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO AN ELONGATED CORRIDOR OF HEIGHTS FALLS QUICKLY EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROMPT A STEADY NORTHWARD INCREASE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE CORRESPONDING WING OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF ASCENT WILL AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN VORTICITY CENTER TOWARD MONDAY EVENING, A WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PROGRESSIVELY DEEPEN ON THE SOUTHERN END AS SOME DEGREE OF PHASING/MERGING OCCURS WITH THE NORTHERN PV FILAMENT. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE EXTENT...TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THIS PROCESS MAINTAINS A HIGHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN DEFINING THE EXACT DETAILS. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH PRESENT A PERIOD OF STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AS THE WAVE TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT UPON ARRIVAL. THIS RETAINS HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR A GOOD SHOT AT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. A WARMING THERMAL PROFILE WILL REMAIN SENSITIVE IN MAGNITUDE TO ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO MASS FIELDS UPSTREAM GOING FORWARD. A LARGELY ZONAL WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW CAPPING THE LOW LEVEL ADVECTIVE PROCESS MAY TEND TO CONTAIN THE DEPTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SOME DEGREE. A CHECK OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOUNDING DATA AND THICKNESSES WOULD LEAVE A LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW. HOWEVER THIS PROFILE MAY SHOW SOME COLD BIAS NOW DUE TO THE EXISTING SNOWPACK. THEREFORE NOT YET INCLINED TO PROVIDE ANY GREATER DEFINITION TO THE PTYPE, RETAINING A SIMPLISTIC RAIN/SNOW MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CORRIDOR. MARINE... A RATHER RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A GUSTY SOUTHEAST WIND WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF STRENGTHEN LOW PRESSURE ON MONDAY. SUBSTANTIAL ICE COVERAGE ACROSS ALL MARINE AREAS WILL KEEP WAVES ABSENT FROM ALL FORECAST PRODUCTS. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....CB UPDATE.......CB SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM....MR MARINE.......MR YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1135 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014 UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA AT THE CURRENT TIME. A DECENT AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND DPVA AHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW... WHICH IS JUST CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO PRESENT... WITH SOME COUPLING WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS APPARENT IN CROSS-SECTIONS FROM THE RAP AND NAM. LUCKILY IT IS MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY AND GENERALLY AVOIDING OUR AREA... AND SHOULD ONLY WARRANT SOME LOW POPS AT THE VERY START OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE TODAY... ALTHOUGH ANOTHER QUICKLY MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ALONG A SIMILAR PATH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THAT FEATURE IS JUST PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIDGE AT THE CURRENT TIME... AND LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE POTENT THAN THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER... ITS IMPACTS STILL APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WILL BE FELT ON SATURDAY. SO... FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER WAVE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA REASONABLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORK INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER... CLOUDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER TODAY AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A NORTHWEST WIND TO KEEP WIND CHILLS NEAR OR A BIT BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD DROP QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING... WITH SOME RECOVERY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION START TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWFA. AT THIS POINT... IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH DURING THE EVENING FOR MSP TO GET ANOTHER BELOW ZERO DAY... AND TIMING COULD ACTUALLY PROVIDE A 2-FOR-1 WITH THINGS PERHAPS DIPPING BELOW ZERO PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND REMAINING THAT WAY FOR A WHILE AFTERWARD... ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. KEPT POPS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT... ALTHOUGH THAT COULD ALSO BE A CLOSE CALL... WITH THINGS QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014 SNOW ENSUES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AMOUNTS STILL LOOKS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH A TYPICAL ALBERTA CLIPPER...WITH WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 2.5 INCH TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOUTHERN MN SEEING THE AMOUNTS ON THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE POSSIBLY INCHING ABOVE THE 3 INCH MARK. AS DENDRITIC LAYER MOISTURE IS LOST TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT THIS WOULD BE MINIMAL AND PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN MN. BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES ATTEMPT TO MARRY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARMER WITH THIS EVENT...SO MIXED PRECIP IS A POSSIBILITY. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THEN BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHICH WILL MEAN THE CONTINUANCE OF MILD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIP. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014 SKC CONDS TO INITIALIZE ALL TAFS...BUT CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS EVENING THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GRADUALLY INCRG COVERAGE AND LOWERING TO MIDLVL DECKS BY DAYBREAK SAT MRNG. NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO CROSS SD INTO SRN MN DURG THE DAY TMRW...SO THIS IS REFLECTED IN ALL TAF SITES /EXCEPT KEAU/ BY BRINGING IN PERIOD OF -SN. HAVE STARTED ALL -SN AS MVFR BUT WITH A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SOME IFR VSBY MAY WELL DEVELOP IN HEAVIER BANDS. AS FOR KEAU...-SN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z SO IT IS BEYOND THIS PERIOD BUT LATER TAFS MAY WELL INCLUDE -SN THERE. WINDS THRU THE DAY TDA WILL BE NW CLOSE TO 10 KT THEN DROP TO LGT/VRBL TNGT AS A HIGH PRES CENTER MOVES ACRS. WINDS THEN RESUME FROM THE SE DURG THE DAY TMRW IN THE 5-10KT RANGE. KMSP...VFR TO START AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN MIDLVL DECKS FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS DEVELOP DURG THE DAY TMRW. CAN ALSO XPCT A SEVERAL-HOUR WINDOW DURG THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TMRW WHERE -SN WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA. MAINLY LOOKING FOR MVFR ATTM...BUT IFR CONDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. START TIME CAN ALSO VARY BY A COUPLE HOURS EITHER WAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KMSP. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT NIGHT...MVFR CIGS XPCTD EARLY...MVFR VSBY PSBL WITH CHC -SN. N WIND 5-10 KT. SUN...MVFR CIGS PSBL. VRBL WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BCMG SE 5-15 KT. SUN NIGHT...MVFR CONDS XPCTD WITH CHC -SN. SE WIND 10-20 KT. MON...MVFR CONDS PSBL EARLY WITH A CHC -SN. S WIND 5-15 KT BCMG SW. MON NIGHT...VFR. SW WIND 10-20 KT. TUE...VFR. WEST WIND 10-20 KT. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JPC SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...JPC