Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 02/13/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS EUREKA CA

409 AM PST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A GENERALLY FAIR DAY TO NW
CALIFORNIA...FOLLOWING VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG THIS MORNING. THIS
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN IN THE EVENING ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO
AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MENDOCINO
COUNTY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES.

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BUILDING RIDGE FOR NW CALIFORNIA TODAY, WHILE THE NCEP SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS IS CAUSING A VERY LOW LEVEL SURFACE INVERSION THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS THE REASON BEHIND COASTAL AND VALLEY
FOG. ABUNDANT MOISTURE MAY EQUATE TO SOME INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE
ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. AS THE SUN
RISES AND TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM, ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT
THE CLOUDS OFF THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, WITH AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT THIS EVENING DO NOT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TODAY. WHILE TEMPS
WILL BE PLEASANT, CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL.

FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES AS TO
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO
DELAY THE ONSET UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE THE MORE COARSE
RESOLUTION GFS BRINGS RAIN TO DEL NORTE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE HI-
RES 3KM HRRR ALSO SEEMS TO BE HOLDING OFF THE PRECIP UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THE EVER RELIABLE ECMWF IS ALSO HOLDING OFF PRECIP
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH MODELS SEEMINGLY HOLDING OFF PRECIP
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT, WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS FOR THE PRE-
MIDNIGHT TIMES THEN RAMPING THEM UP QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
WARM FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN
SPREADING INTO FAR NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY BY MID MORNING. KEPT
QPF TOTALS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE DEL NORTE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW
INCHES IN THE HUMBOLDT MOUNTAINS. TOTALS FOR MENDOCINO COUNTY DO
NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS FOCUSED
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. HOWEVER, OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY SQUEEZE OUT
AN INCH OF PRECIP OVER MENDOCINO NATIONAL FOREST. SNOW LEVELS
REMAIN HIGH MAKING SNOWFALL A NON EVENT. THE OTHER ISSUE ARE THE
WINDS JUST AHEAD OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING 925MB
WINDS IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE AROUND DAWN WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS COASTAL DEL NORTE COUNTY. PRE-FRONTAL DYNAMICS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME OF SOME OF THESE WINDS IN GUSTS. THAT
SAID, MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT AS TO THE PLACEMENT
OF THESE HIGHER WINDS, WHETHER THEY OCCUR IN SOUTHERN OREGON OR
DOWN INTO NW CAL. AS SUCH, WILL PUNT TO THE DAY CREW TO MAKE THE
FINAL DECISION AS TO A WIND ADVISORY SINCE IT REMAINS BORDERLINE
WITH OUR CRITERIA. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE BREEZY WED MORNING WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES AND BRANCHES ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, SINKING INTO FAR NORTHERN DEL NORTE COUNTY BUT THEN
STALL OUT THERE. THIS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THU, BUT THEN LIFT OUT AS A WARM
FRONT THU EVENING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRI
INTO SAT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH A RIDGE PASSING OVER EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MID NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND A
HALF AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO
DRIVE DISTURBANCES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

WITH HEIGHTS REMAINING SOMEWHAT HIGH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
DID A MIX OF THE OFFICIAL AND CONSRAW FOR TEMPS THIS WEEK. THIS
CHANGED THE ONGOING FORECAST LITTLE. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WAS TO PULL THE BULK OF THE POPS FARTHER NORTH AND
KEEPING MENDOCINO FAIRLY DRY, STICKING WITH THE FOCUS OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. BFG

.AVIATION...EXPECT LIFR ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING DUE TO
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND VISIBILITIES
IMPROVE. INLAND, EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL.

.MARINE...THE FIRST IN SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING NEAR GALE CONDITIONS TO
LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
LAST INTO WEDNESDAY. ISSUED SCA`S FOR THIS, BUT GALES OR HAZARDOUS
SEAS WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A SHORT TIME OVERNIGHT IF THE
STORM IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE DAY CREW WILL NEED TO TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM PST WEDNESDAY
PZZ450-475.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PST
WEDNESDAY PZZ470.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

901 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014

.UPDATE...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME HEAVIER PRECIP BEGINNING TO
FILL BACK IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING...THE PRECIP
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ATL METRO LOOKS CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...SO
EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY FZRA IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS AOB 32 DEGREES.
NORTH OF THE METRO AREA...WHERE THE PRECIP RETURNS LOOK MORE
UNIFORM...HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS NW GA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS NOTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AL. STILL
EXPECT THOSE AREAS RECEIVING A WINTRY MIX TO FINISH UP AS
SNOW/SLEET OR ALL SNOW. THE SNOW COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.

MADE SOME EARLIER TWEAKS THE WEATHER GRIDS. MAY HAVE TO MAKE SOME
CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS LATER ON...BUT THEY LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK NOW. ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE ADDITIONAL STORM
TOTAL SNOW/ICE GRIDS FOR THE WEB GRAPHICS.

NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014/

.SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CONTINUES...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH ONGOING MIXTURE OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AND IMPACTS ON ALREADY
WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES...TREES/LIMBS DOWN...AND ROAD CONDITIONS.
CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE MAINTAINS CAA FROM THE STRONG 1032MB PARENT HIGH
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS HAS BEEN FIGHTING DIABATIC
EFFECTS FROM THE OVERRUNNING GULF MOISTURE AND FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

WHILE PREVIOUS UPSTREAM SLUG OF MOISTURE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF MAY
HAVE LIMITED PREVIOUS DAYTIME QPF...THE HRRR VERIFIED WELL DURING
THIS TIME AND WAS CONSISTENT WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT FILLING BACK IN
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING BEFORE THE EXITING OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY GOOD ISENTROPIC FORCING AGAINST THE WEDGE AND UPPER
FORCING FROM GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND INCREASING PVA WITH THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH STILL WEST OF THE REGION. HAVE TRENDED POPS CLOSE
TO THIS SOLUTION UNTIL NEAR 06Z THEN CLOSE TO BLEND OF GENERAL
GUIDANCE AS THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE BAROCLINIC LEAF OF THE
DEEPENING LOW IMPACTS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.

THERMAL PROFILES AND TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA HAS SUPPORTED A SMALLER
SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN...WHICH COULD EASILY BE MIXED WITH
SLEET AT TIMES. THE NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE PREVIOUS ICE STORM
WARNING LOOKS TO PRIMARILY GET A SLEET AND SNOW MIX SO HAVE
TRANSITIONED THE COUNTIES NORTH OF I-20 INTO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING AND OUT OF THE ICE STORM ZONE. THE REST OF THE NORTH HAS
RECENTLY HAD A MIXTURE OF MAINLY SLEET AND SNOW WITH SOME MORE
CONVECTIVE LOOKING BANDS...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO
ALL SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP WITH THE LOW
SWINGING THROUGH. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A MORE APPARENT 700MB
TROWAL ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA NEAR 06Z. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH SOME SNOW BANDING MAY REACH AND
COULD DROP A QUICK 1-2 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GA.

FOR ICE AND SNOW AMOUNTS...HAVE TONED ICE AMOUNTS DOWN TO AN
ADDITIONAL QUARTER OR UP TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE WARNING AREA AND
HAVE GONE WITH SIMILAR ADVERTISED SNOW AMOUNTS BEING MAXIMIZED IN
THE NORTHEAST OF AN ADDITIONAL 4-8 INCHES...AND 1-3 INCHES IN A SW
TO NE SWATH FROM A LAGRANGE TO ATLANTA TO ATHENS ZONE.. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE UNDERCUT BY SOME SLEET AT TIMES.

FOR TEMPS...HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TRENDS WITH EVENT BUT
HAVE HAD LOCAL RISES AND FALLS BY 1-2 DEGREES. SHOULD STILL REACH
OVERNIGHT LOWS OF 2-3 DEGREES BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS SO WILL
POSE A MAJOR THREAT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXED PRECIP FREEZING
TOGETHER. ANY MELTING THAT OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY AREAS
PROGGED TO REACH THE LOW 40S WILL ALSO POSE A DANGER FOR FALLING
PIECES OF ICE.

GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD STILL BE ENHANCED THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING LOW AND LINGERING HIGH...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE LIMBS AND TREES TO FALL ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES
LIKELY.

ALL-IN-ALL THE PRIMARY THREATS OF THE WINTER STORM AND ICE CONTINUE
BUT ACROSS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ZONES...EVEN THOUGH SOME ICE AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED LOWER. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO PLEASE STAY PUT AND REMAIN OFF THE ROADS AND IN
A SAFE LOCATION!

BAKER

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS PAST THURSDAY RIGHT NOW. FAST
MOVING SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY
THROUGH THE EVENING FRIDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME MIXING OF SNOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS PRECIPITATION SO LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE TRENDS AS WE GET CLOSER FOR CHANGES IN EXPECTED IMPACTS.
ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT MAY BE AREAS IN THE FAR NORTH THAT STILL
HAVE ICE/SNOW LINGERING FROM THE CURRENT STORM.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 339 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014/
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ASSOCIATE MOISTURE BRINGS PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY INTO N GA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES APPEAR COLD
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX OR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF N GA WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE FOR FAR N FULTON COUNTY
AND NE TO THE MOUNTAINS.

MODELS RATHER INCONSISTENT BRINGING MOISTURE ACROSS N GA SATURDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH
FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

GFS AND EUROPEAN DIFFERING WITH A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS
MUCH FASTER BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND THE EUROPEAN BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AT THIS TIME FAVORING THE WPC POP GRID FOR
MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GA. THIS COULD CHANGE GREATLY WITH OTHER MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME
AIRMASS SEEMS TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS ONLY.

BDL

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LAST PHASE OF THE WINTRY MIX MOVING THROUGH THE CWFA TONIGHT.
NORTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD SEE A MIX OF FZRA...PL...AND SNOW FOR A
FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z. AFTER THEN...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
AND PRECIP TYPE SHOULD CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET AT
TIMES. A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW AND LOWER CIGS MAY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGER DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW.
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE LOW
PULLS OFF TO THE NE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 27 42 31 49 / 100 30 0 20
ATLANTA 28 43 34 52 / 100 20 0 20
BLAIRSVILLE 29 40 25 45 / 100 30 5 60
CARTERSVILLE 31 43 30 51 / 100 20 0 30
COLUMBUS 32 48 36 59 / 80 10 0 10
GAINESVILLE 28 43 32 49 / 100 30 0 20
MACON 30 46 32 57 / 90 20 0 10
ROME 31 43 29 50 / 100 20 5 60
PEACHTREE CITY 29 44 30 54 / 100 20 0 20
VIDALIA 32 47 35 61 / 100 20 0 5

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CLAYTON...
COWETA...CRAWFORD...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...GLASCOCK...
GREENE...HANCOCK...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MERIWETHER...
MONROE...MORGAN...NEWTON...PEACH...PIKE...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TREUTLEN...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WILKINSON.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...HARRIS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...
SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...FANNIN...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...
JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...TOWNS...UNION...
WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

637 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014/

..SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CONTINUES...

BAKER

BDL

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LAST PHASE OF THE WINTRY MIX MOVING THROUGH THE CWFA TONIGHT.
NORTHERN TAF SITES SHOULD SEE A MIX OF FZRA...PL...AND SNOW FOR A
FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z. AFTER THEN...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
AND PRECIP TYPE SHOULD CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET AT
TIMES. A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW AND LOWER CIGS MAY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGER DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW.
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE LOW
PULLS OFF TO THE NE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

120 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL DIRECT COLD AIR
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF
GEORGIA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PUSH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND BE NEAR
THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BRING WINTER-TYPE PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA. DANGEROUS ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE WEDGE RIDGE AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION DURING MUCH OF TODAY. BASED ON THE
LATEST RAP TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS EXPECT MAINLY SNOW NORTH OF A
SALUDA...COLUMBIA...AND BISHOPVILLE LINE. NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF
THIS LINE EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET. IT SHOULD BE RAIN IN THE
SOUTH PART. RADAR TRENDS AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY BUT SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR IN THE
NORTH PART. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA EXTENDING FROM LINCOLNTON TO NEWBERRY TO CAMDEN TO CHERAW.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S CENTRAL
AND SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE. THE GFS AND NAM MODEL
TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS ARE CLOSE AND SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL LIKELY BE FREEZING RAIN. DANGEROUS ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. HAVE TRIED TO STAY CLOSE TO WPC
QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

AVERAGE MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE 1.00 INCH WHICH IS A
CONCERN...SO HAVE RAISED ICING FORECAST TO 0.5 TO 1.00 INCH ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/CSRA. THERE IS A POSSIBLY OF EVEN GREATER
ICE AMOUNTS IF QPF IS REALIZED. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY
MAY ADD TO THE PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ICE ACCUMULATION. THE
ACCUMULATION OF ICE ON TREES...LIMBS AND POWER LINES COMBINED WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL LEAD TO POWER
OUTAGES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVES UP ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST.

USED THE LOCAL WEDGE SCHEME FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE CHARNICK SCHEME PRODUCED LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS INDICATE POPS OF 20 PERCENT OR
LESS. THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING THE REST OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINTER STORM SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT THE REGION WITH RAIN AND
SLEET AT CAE/CUB AND ONLY RAIN AT AGS/DNL/OGB. CEILINGS HAVE
LOWERED TO HIGH END IFR/LOW END MVFR WITH FURTHER LOWERING FIRMLY
INTO IFR THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERN SURROUNDS FREEZING RAIN WITH
THE ONSET CURRENTLY BEING PUSHED BACK SEVERAL HOURS. LINE BETWEEN
LIQUID AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY A COUPLE MILES NORTH OF
CAE/CUB WITH SOME OCCASIONAL SLEET WORKING INTO CAE/CUB. EXPECT
THE LINE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW TO SLOWLY WORK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND
12/09Z. CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN FOR CAE/CUB LOWER THAN OTHER
SITES DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR PRODUCING SLEET
INSTEAD OF FREEZING RAIN. ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL
BEGIN WITH THE ONSET AND TOTAL ACCUMULATION BY 12/18Z REACHING ONE
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AT AGS/DNL/OGB AND SLIGHTLY LESS
AT CAE/CUB. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AROUND DAYBREAK
BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION CROSS THE REGION. FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE STORM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-
016-018-020>022-025-026.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
THURSDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
THURSDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

926 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVES UP ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST.

USED THE LOCAL WEDGE SCHEME FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE CHARNICK SCHEME PRODUCED LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS INDICATE POPS OF 20 PERCENT OR
LESS. THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING THE REST OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WEDGE PATTERN IN PLACE WITH LIGHT RAIN OVER THE REGION. EXPECT CIGS
TO RANGE BETWEEN 700 FEET AND 1200 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT. VSBYS
WILL LOWER BETWEEN 2 TO 4 MILES BY MIDDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE PELLETS MIXING WITH THE RAIN AFTER
16Z AT CAE/CUB...AND BY 22Z AT OGB/AGS/DNL. EXPECT THE RAIN/SLEET
MIX TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF FREEZING RAIN
MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND WILL BE NORTHEAST 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS...MAINLY TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION
CROSSES THE REGION. FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

453 PM MST WED FEB 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM MST WED FEB 12 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO 8-10 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z FRIDAY...ABOUT
5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING
CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO...ALTHOUGH SNOW
COVER IS MELTING...THERE SHOULD STILL BE A COUPLE OF INCHES ON THE
GROUND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT RISEN DRAMATICALLY TODAY...
THOUGH LEOTI REACHED INTO THE LOWER 40S. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...STILL THINK THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. GFS DEVELOPS SOME
PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK POSITIVE DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE DRY...HOWEVER...AND WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST FREE OF PRECIPITATION. AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST
OVER THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY GO NORTHWEST
AFTER 09Z...THEN RETURN TO SOUTHWEST THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM MST WED FEB 12 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE NEAR THE AREA...BUT REMAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST. SOME LOW PRECIP. CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM OVERALL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND...THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE ESTIMATING WHAT IMPACT THE SNOW PACK WILL HAVE ON TEMPERATURES.
AFTER THE WEEKEND AM THINKING THE SNOW PACK WILL BE MOST IF NOT
COMPLETELY GONE. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY EACH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS AND MONDAY CAUSING A BRIEF COOL DOWN.
HOWEVER THE FOLLOWING DAY TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND AS
WARMER AIR IS CIRCULATED IN BEHIND THE SURFACE RIDGE FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE SEVERAL COLD FRONT PASSAGES HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL RANGE FROM NORMAL TO ALMOST 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MST WED FEB 12 2014

SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. WHILE BULK OF FORCING WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF CWA...SMALL BAND OF ASCENT EXPECTED NEAR
MCCOOK AREA BTWN 5 AND 9Z. WHILE OPERATIONAL GFS ANS NAM ARE
DRY...LATEST RAP AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE HRRR BRINGING AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREA. WHILE UPSTREAM ECHOES REMAIN JUST
VIRGA ATTM...ANY OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD EITHER RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN AND WITH EXPECTED WET BULB TIMING CONDITIONS
FREEZING RAIN WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT. CURRENTLY DO
NOT THINK PROBABILITY HIGH ENOUGH FOR A PREVAILING GROUP
ATTM...BUT WILL WATCH NEB PANHANDLE CLOSELY NEXT FEW HOURS FOR
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

401 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2014

...Updated for long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

A weak cold front/surface boundary will drop south across
Nebraska overnight as an upper level trough crosses the Rockies
and moves out into the northern plains. NAM and GFS indicated an
increase in cloud cover will precede this upper level disturbance
so given the increase in cloud cover and a southwest wind at 10 to
15 mph will continue to favor the previous forecast with lows
overnight mainly in the teens for western Kansas. The cooler
temperatures will be where the heavier snowfall fell Monday night.
There will also be a chance for some freezing fog overnight based
on the south/slightly southeast wind direction during the first
half of the night along with mostly clear skies. HRRR also was
suggesting a period of reduced visibilities across south central
and portions of western Kansas until the winds begin to veer more
to the west after midnight. At this time dense fog is not
anticipated.

Morning clouds will give way to mostly sunny conditions on
Wednesday as the upper level disturbance moves into the Mid
Mississippi Valley. The weak cold front/surface boundary will
briefly move into the western Kansas early in the day. Despite the
frontal passage the 925mb to 850mb temperatures at 00z Thursday
will be 2c to 4c warmer when compared to temperatures at 00z
Wednesday. Using this as a guide for highs and taking into account
snow cover across much of western Kansas the afternoon
temperatures are expected to range from the mid 30s to upper 40s.
The upper 40s will be mainly confined to extreme southwest Kansas
where there is little to no cover.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

The mid to high level flow will remain fairly zonal through the
extended period, with embedded shortwave troughs bringing periodic
weak cold fronts through western Kansas. The main problem with the
temperature forecast is the effect of snow cover. Melting will be a
slow process, especially since ground temperatures are below
freezing. The warming trend will be interrupted by a pacific cold
front that will knock highs in the 60s Saturday into the 50s by
Sunday and Monday.

The models indicate low amplitude but deep upper troughing off
of the west coast by Feb 18-19th. This pattern would result in broad
west-southwest mid to high level flow regime across the high plains,
with lee troughing and very mild temperatures. Highs could reach
well into the 60s and 70s by February 18th.

The models are advertising a deep upper level trough in the western
United States by Feb 20th, with strong lee troughing by Feb
19th-20th. Highs will be in the 70s south of a frontal boundary over
the southern plains and probably extending into southern Kansas, with
cooler 60s across the central Plains. Persistent low level flow
from the Gulf of Mexico will result in 55-60F dewpoints into the
southern plains by Feb 19-20th. Eventually as the upper level trough
approaches the plains by the Feb 21st-23rd time frame,
thunderstorms could develop. Unless the system closes off and
moves very slowly, climatology suggests that the moist axis will
be over eastern Kansas, with drier air further west. However,
recall that an upper level trough and moisture return on February
23, 2007 resulted in severe weather, including F1 tornadoes in
Ford and Meade counties and 1 inch hail in Seward county. But
severe weather in February is exceedingly rare across western
Kansas.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

Mid to high level moisture will be on the increase overnight as
an upper level disturbance moves out of the Rockies and into the
northern plains. A weak surface boundary will moves south into
portions of western Kansas by early Wednesday which will result in
southwest winds at around 10 becoming northwest during the early
morning hours. Given the expected wind direction early tonight and
climatology for DDC, GCK and HYS there will be a chance for some fog
during the overnight hours. HRRR also suggesting this trend as
well so introduced a period of MVFR/IFR visibilities with the
lower visibilities being at DDC.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 16 35 23 43 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 16 36 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 23 50 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 17 42 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 17 34 24 45 / 0 0 0 0
P28 10 35 22 45 / 0 0 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

207 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014

AS OF 2 PM CST...1 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MORNING STRATUS LINGERING
AND MOUNTAIN WAVE CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM COLORADO. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO THE LOW 40S
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20
MPH. A LEE TROUGH WAS STRENGTHENING OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ARE THE
TIMING OF THE LEE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE FROM MELTING SNOW...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT FREEZING FOG WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHEN THE LEE TROUGH MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT...WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE FOG BY
MIXING IN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE HRRR...NAM AND LAMP GUIDANCE ALL
SUGGEST FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...BUT FOR VARYING LOCATIONS. SIDED WITH
THE HRRR ON FOG CHANCES AS THE LOCATIONS MORE ACCURATELY REFLECTED
THE ANTICIPATED SCENARIO. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS SETTLE DOWN BEHIND THE LEE TROUGH BUT
WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE TIME TO WATCH CLOSELY WILL
BE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
FLURRIES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. THESE
CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM HAIGLER NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY KANSAS. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

FOR TOMORROW...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. AS WITH TODAY...IT WAS
HARD TO PINPOINT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH THE SNOW FIELD
REMAINING BUT WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES. BASICALLY TOOK A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH A ONE DEGREE NUDGE UP FOR TOMORROW.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF CLOUDINESS ANTICIPATED. THIS COULD LIMIT WARMING IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON MAY HELP OVERCOME SOME OF THE INCOMING CLOUDINESS. FARTHER
EAST...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON WARMING AS THEY
WILL HAVE PASSED OVER MANY MILES OF SNOW COVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY MUNDANE IN REGARD TO PRECIP. CHANCES AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. THE
MORE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE NAILING DOWN
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS SEVERAL FRONTS MOVE THROUGH IN ADDITION TO
ESTIMATING HOW MUCH SNOW PACK WILL BE LEFT TO AFFECT TEMPERATES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WARMING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY THREE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ACCOMPANYING EACH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WILL BE A COLD FRONT. BEHIND
EACH SHORT WAVE TROUGH A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...AND HELPING TO NEGATE THE
EFFECTS OF THE BRIEF SPELL OF COOLER AIR. AFTER MONDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST TUE FEB 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH TAF
SITES. GUIDANCE HINTS THAT FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AT
KMCK. ONE CONCERNING FACTOR ABOUT THIS FORECAST IS THE PASSING OF
A TROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BUT UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
NOCTURNAL COOLING. BEHIND THE TROUGH...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
PICK UP AND WOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG. KGLD MAY BE ON
THE EDGE OF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT THINKING IS THIS SHOULD
STAY EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITE.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...RRH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

150 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST TUE FEB 11 2014

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIODS AS
MILD/DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (IF NOT
LONGER). AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST. DOWNSLOPE/CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW WILL SUPPORT A PERSISTENT DRY
AIR MASS OVER OUR CWA. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS
AROUND 60F THIS WEEKEND (POSSIBLY MID-UPPER 60S USING WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE AND ASSUMING CLEAR SKIES). IN FACT IT APPEARS ALL OF
OUR HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE
50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH QUICKLY PASSES THROUGH THE
PLAINS. GFS KEEPS THIS TROUGH MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND MUCH WEAKER. I
DIDNT SEE A REASON TO JUMP ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION SINCE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH LIMITS THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION/LIFT AVAILABLE OVER OUR CWA...AND PRECIP WOULD
BE VERY LIGHT IF WE WERE TO SEE ANY. THESE TYPES OF QUICK MOVING
FEATURES ARE TRADITIONALLY HANDLED POORLY AT THIS RANGE BY
GUIDANCE...SO I FAVORED A DRY FORECAST ADVERTISED BY MODEL MEAN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST TUE FEB 11 2014

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

208 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2014

...Updated short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

The extended forecast looks dry with an upper level ridge building
across the western US this week then shifting eastward to the Plains
this weekend. A series of upper level shortwave are progged to move
through the Northern Plains this week but look to only affect the
wind direction with a slight increase in clouds across western
Kansas. There will generally be a downslope component to the wind
this week with winds meandering from the southwest to northwest as
the aforementioned upper level disturbances move through the
Northern Plains. The main problem with the temperature forecast is
the effect of snow cover. Melting will be a slow process, especially
since ground temperatures are below freezing. Nevertheless, a
gradual warming trend can be expected through Saturday as the snow
melt continues, with highs possibly reaching into the 60s or even
low 70s by Saturday. A brief cooldown is expected Sunday into Monday
in the wake of a shortwave trough.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 17 36 23 43 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 16 36 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 23 48 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 17 42 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 17 35 24 45 / 0 0 0 0
P28 12 35 22 45 / 0 0 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1125 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

At 12z Tuesday a 250mb upper level jet extended from the
northeast Pacific, just off the coast of Washington, into northern
Nevada. An upper level trough was located over Idaho which was
also in the left exit region of the 250mb upper level jet. Further
east a 500mb trough extended from eastern Kansas into eastern New
Mexico and a 850mb high was located over Oklahoma. At the surface
earlier this morning a trough of low pressure/surface boundary was
present along the lee of the Rockies with an area of high pressure
was centered over the Mid Mississippi Valley.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

The mid level shortwave over western Kansas was moving into
central and eastern Kansas early this morning. The snow that had
developed Monday afternoon and evening over southwest Kansas was
poised to move out of south central Kansas early this morning as
evident in the radar mosaic. Have adjusted early morning weather
and pops to diminish and end before sunrise. Low level cloudiness
continues across the central High Plains and over western Kansas.
There will be a few breaks around through sunrise but clouds
should diminish from northwest to southeast across western Kansas
during the morning hours as upper level ridging and subsidence
builds into the central High Plains.

Surface high pressure that continues to nose into the central High
Plains from the Midwest will slowly move east today. Pressure will
be lowering somewhat over eastern Colorado. The resulting pressure
gradient will bring increasing southerly winds to western Kansas
today. In spite of more sunshine and increased low level mixing,
temperatures will be hard pressed to climb out of the mid and
upper 20s from Dodge City east as the cold high pressure continues
its grip. Farther west, temperatures should climb well into the
30s over the far southwest corner where snow cover has been the
lightest.

Overnight low temperatures tonight will be tricky as increasing
high level cloudiness and a westerly downslope component to the
winds will counteract widespread snow cover over much of central
and southwest Kansas. The previous min temperature forecast showed
a bias toward coldest temperatures in the mid teens where snow
cover is the deepest. Have adjusted that area a little to reflect
where significant snowfall occurred Monday night. Elsewhere, lows
could stay in the lower 20s around Elkhart and in the area from Scott
City to Wakeeney.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 28 17 36 23 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 30 16 36 24 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 38 23 48 30 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 32 17 42 25 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 26 17 35 24 / 0 0 0 0
P28 24 12 35 22 / 10 0 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1149 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

Models were in good agreement with moving an upper level
disturbance from Nevada to the central Rockies by late this
afternoon. This upper level disturbance will then cross the
central high plains early tonight. As this upper level disturbance
approaches mid level frontogenesis will improve along the 700mb
baroclinic zone. This improving mid level forcing along with a
moist upslope flow in the lower levels will likely result snow
redeveloping by late day west of highway 83. The 700mb baroclinic
zone is initially forecast to remain nearly stationary early this
evening as the upper level disturbance approaches the area from the
west. Given that this forcing is expected to remain nearly
stationary for 3-5 hours as upper level dynamics improve early
this evening the potential exists for a band of snow accumulations
of 2 to 3 inches. At this time however the exact location of where
this band of heavier snowfall will set up is unclear with each
model offering slightly different solution. At this time based on
the latest trend of the HRRR and RAP have decided to lean towards
the slightly further south solution and therefore will issue a
winter weather advisory for locations along south southwest of a
Dodge City to Garden City line.

The snow will taper off from west to east after midnight as the
upper level disturbance crosses western Kansas. low level moisture
and weak southeast winds may give rise to lingering low clouds and
possible areas of fog. Given expected cloud cover overnight will
stay close to the previous forecast for all but the west central
Kansas where the potential for some clearing towards daybreak
appears more likely.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

The mid to high level flow will remain fairly zonal through the
extended period, with embedded shortwave troughs bringing periodic
weak cold fronts through western Kansas. The main problem with the
temperature forecast is the effect of snow cover. Melting will be
a slow process, especially since ground temperatures are below
freezing. A gradual warming trend can be expected through Saturday
as the snow melt continues, with highs possibly reaching into the
60s or even low 70s by Saturday, depending on snow cover by then.

After a brief cooldown Sunday and Monday in the wake of a shortwave
trough, the models indicate low amplitude but deep upper troughing
off of the west coast by Feb 18-19Th. This pattern would result in
broad west-southwest mid to high level flow across the high plains,
with lee troughing and very mild temperatures. Highs could reach
well into the 60s and 70s by February 19th.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

VFR ceilings at the beginning of this TAF period could fall back
into the MVFR category through the remainder of the overnight
hours. Have added tempo groups to the KGCK, KDDC and KHYS TAFs to
account for this. There is also some potential for mist and fog to
develop around KDDC around 12z. Conditions should improve to VFR
at all the TAF sites after about 15z. Southerly winds should
increase into the 10 to 20 knot range during the day as high
pressure continues over eastern Kansas and low pressure develops
in the lee of the Rockies.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 4 28 14 33 / 80 0 0 0
GCK 5 30 16 37 / 80 0 0 0
EHA 10 38 21 49 / 80 10 0 0
LBL 7 32 20 38 / 80 10 0 0
HYS 3 26 14 36 / 30 0 0 0
P28 7 24 14 37 / 60 10 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Gerard

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GAYLORD MI

1227 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK...AS
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE
FEATURES WILL ALSO MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

CHANGES THIS HOUR: CONTINUE TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER LATE THIS
MORNING FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A PRONOUNCED CLEARING TREND
ERODING VERY THIN CLOUDINESS SEEN THIS MORNING. RAP PROFILES
INSIST THAT WITH A LITTLE HEATING WE WILL RE-SATURATE BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FOR MANY LOCATIONS. FEEL THAT THIS WILL STILL
HAPPEN TO SOME EXTENT GIVEN THAT VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS WE ARE ON
THE VERGE OF SATURATION ATTM...BUT WILL TREND THE FORECAST MORE
PARTLY CLOUDY /THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY/ FOR THE AFTERNOON...SAVE THE
COAST OF NW LOWER FROM MBL TO GTLM4. TEMPS/WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

CHANGES THIS HOUR: WILL GO A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC ON CLOUDS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLEARING EVIDENT ON
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES NOT IN A HURRY TO
RESPOND...HOWEVER...WITH SOME SPOTS STILL IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO. OUTSIDE OF THIS EARLY CLEARING...DO LIKE INHERITED
TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS BY MIDDAY OR A LITTLE AFTER...WITH
PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES AS THE COLUMN WARMS SOME /SEE UPSTREAM GRB
SOUNDING/ WITH BETTER INTERSECTION OF THIS MOISTURE AND THE DGZ.
TEMPS ARE ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

FCST IN GOOD SHAPE...LIGHT WNW FLOW RESULTING IN LAKE CLOUDS
ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN EASTERN UPPER...AND ACROSS NW LOWER FROM
LEELANAU COUNTY SOUTHWARD...WHERE THE FLOW IS COMING IN OFF AREAS
THAT ARE LESS ICE COVERED. STILL THINKING THAT CLOUDS WILL
REDEVELOP ALL AREAS...AT LEAST FOR A BIT LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES IS LIKELY AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE COLD WHERE IT CLEARED. HERE ARE THE LEADERS THIS
MORNING...INDIAN RIVER (-25F)...PELLSTON AND ATLANTA (-23F)
GAYLORD (-21F).

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER/SYNOPTIC PATTERN: BROAD SHALLOW TROUGHING ALOFT
EXITING WITH SHALLOW RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING STARTING TO TAKE
OVER. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LAST EVENING...AND NOW WEAKENING WINDS
FROM ADVANCING SFC HIGH PRESSURE...RESULTING IN A LOSS OF CLOUD
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH WOODS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS
ALL OF FAR NRN LOWER AND MUCH OF EASTERN CHIP/MACK IN EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED IN THESE AREAS...WITH READINGS
NOW DOWN INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. UPSTREAM...MAIN SHORTWAVE
SHALLOW RIDGING NOW POKING INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MN...WITH MAINLY
JUST SOME WISPS OF THIN CIRRUS AND TEMPS NEAR 20 BELOW. THERE IS A
SHALLOW SHORTWAVE/BATCH OF RAIN ENTERING THE PAC NW...ASSOCIATED
WITH A NRN STREAM JET STREAK OF 120+ KTS.

PATTERN EVOLUTION/WEATHER EXPECTATIONS: SHALLOW RIDGING ALOFT AND
RATHER IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE AND FURTHER DRYING STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT DATA SHOWING SIGNS OF TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THE SINKING INVERSION. THE BL DOES NOT APPEAR TO GET
SQUASHED OUT WITH DRYING...AND WEAK FLOW NOT ALLOWING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF MIXING. THEN...AFTER LOOKING AT YESTERDAY`S SATELLITE/SKY
COVER SHOWING PRETTY MUCH CLOUDY ALL AREAS (GRANTED...WE WONT HAVE
THE WNW FLOW OFF THE MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKES)...GOTTA BELIEVE THAT
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES (WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES) DEVELOPS. THIS TO LIKELY START AROUND 16-17Z. WINDS DO
INCREASE/SWITCH OUT OF THE SW LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOT SEEING THE BL GETTING TOTALLY DRIED OUT...AND
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE SKY
CONDITION. HOWEVER...AFTER SUNDOWN...EXPECT TO SEE AREAS AWAY FROM
THE DOWNWIND LAKES (NE LOWER) TO CLEAR OUT...WHILE SHALLOW MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED. GONNA GO WITH AN EVENTUAL CLEAR SKY IN NE
LOWER...WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE SW FLOW REGIMES.
WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS NE LOWER...WHILE THICKER CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS WEST OF THERE.
THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE INCOMING PAC NW SHORTWAVE...AND
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT THAT MAKES IT INTO FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
NOT ENTIRELY SURE ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. BEST FORCING/DEEP LAYER -DIVQ
RIDES NORTH OF US...AND BEST LOWE LEVEL CONVERGENCE WELL WEST WITH
THE FRONT. ALSO...MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO START THINKING
ABOUT SEEDING THE LAKES. ONLY SHOT WILL BE WHERE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THE 40% CHANCE...WESTERN CHIP/MACK. SEE NO VIABLE REASON TO TAKE
THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST...AS THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE THERE.

TEMPS STAY COLD...HIGHS IN THE 9 TO 15F RANGE TODAY WITH LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS...TO THE SINGLE (DOUBLE DIGITS?) BELOW ZERO EAST IN THE
CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

PACIFIC JET CORES REMAIN AGGRESSIVE...ENSURING A PROGRESSIVE CONUS
FLOW REGIME OVER THE COURSE OF THE LONG TERM. ABOVE NOT ONLY
SUPPORTS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN...BUT ONE THAT WILL GIVE A BOOT TO
NOW MULTI-WEEK TREND OF ARCTIC AIRMASS INVASIONS AND ALLOW A
SOMEWHAT "MILDER" PATTERN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. THOSE
LONGING FOR SPRING-LIKE WARMTH WILL HAVE TO WAIT...WITH READINGS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE INDICES SUPPORT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE PROGS OF
EVEN MILDER AIR (ABOVE NORMAL?) PERHAPS SPREADING INTO OUR AREA
HEADING THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. A LONG WAY
OUT AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR CHANGES FOR SURE...BUT AN IDEA NEARLY
SHARED BY ALL GUIDANCE AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES. WE SHALL SEE!
GETTING A LITTLE TOO FAR AHEAD...WITH PLENTY OF THINGS TO CONSIDER
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES
TO GET SOME MEASURABLE SNOW THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS PSEUDO
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. ADDRESSING THE IMPACTS
OF THESE SYSTEMS REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM.

SYSTEM ONE SPREADS IN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AS ELONGATED WAVE RACES
ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL SUPPORT IS FLEETING...AS IS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT WHICH QUICKLY WASHES OUT HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SIMPLY NOT IMPRESSED WITH EITHER MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS...WITH SHEARING WAVE FOCUSING BETTER LIFT OFF TO OUR
NORTH...WHILE ALL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST
TIED TO DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST SYSTEM. MID LEVELS LOOK REMARKABLY DRY
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND INITIAL WAVE SUPPORT LIKELY
WASTED IN MOISTENING THESE LEVELS. ALL IN ALL...JUST NOT SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT...AND EXPECT NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/FOR NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AMOUNTS
TAPER OFF QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH PERHAPS JUST TRACE AMOUNTS
DOWN NEAR SAGINAW BAY. LINGERING SNOWS QUICKLY END EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUPPORT STRIPS AWAY.

BREAK IS BRIEF AS MUCH MORE COHERENT AND COMPACT WAVE TAKES IT TURN
CROSSING THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ROCK-STEADY
ECMWF (NOW SUPPORTED BY GFS/GEM/UKMET) PLACES BEST DYNAMICS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH...MAINLY NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW CROSSES THROUGH THE STRAITS. ONCE AGAIN...INITIAL SURGE OF
RATHER STRONGLY FORCED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE GOES INTO MOISTENING THE
COLUMN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH A QUICK LOSS OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THEREAFTER AS DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN ON SOUTH SIDE OF MAIN
WAVE. ABOVE SUGGESTS THE BETTER ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL
REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH TRENDS SUPPORT
THE HEAVIEST...STEADIEST SNOW TARGETING AREAS EVEN FURTHER NORTH.
MID LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS RATHER RESPECTABLE...AND WITH PWATS VALUES
APPROACHING A THIRD OF AN INCH...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AT LEAST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN UPPER (ESPECIALLY IF SYSTEM CAN NUDGE
JUST A TOUCH MORE SOUTH). HOWEVER...EVEN A FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION
WOULD NOT SEEM TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL GIVEN OVERALL
DEARTH OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE THIS SYSTEM
FROM THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SYSTEM BEGINS TO WASH OUT
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS IT APPROACHES MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST
SYSTEM.

DRY START TO THE WEEKEND GIVES WAY TO INCREASINGLY UNCERTAINTY AS
YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN CONUS. NO NEED TO
GET TOO CUTE WITH THE DETAILS JUST YET...ALTHOUGH HAVE TO SAY MOST
PROGS SUPPORT A PATH TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...KEEPING
MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. DEEP
NORTHEAST CONUS/CANADIAN MARITIME LOW DEFINITELY SUPPORTS THIS
FURTHER SOUTH IDEA. PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE HEADING
RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS AND SNOW
CHANCES. TIMING WILL CHANGE...SO NO NEED TO RUN WITH ANYTHING BUT A
CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH.

CONFIDENCE A TOUCH BETTER WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. BRIEF MODERATION INTO THE 20S THURSDAY GIVES WAY TO A
TRANSIENT SHOT OF COLDER (NOT ARCTIC!) AIR TO END THE WORK WEEK INTO
THE START OF THE WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS. THIS
CORE OF COLD GETS KICKED WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC INFLUENCES BEGIN TO DOMINATE. CURRENT MID RANGE
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME AREAS PUSHING
30...BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A HEAT WAVE INDEED!

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL GIVE WAY
TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE COMING
TAF PERIOD.

RESTRICTIONS: MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO HUG TO COAST OF NW LOWER
AND THUS IMPACT MBL. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE...WITH THIS CLOUDINESS
OCCASIONALLY MAKING A RUN AT PLN/TVC THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR AT
APN. TONIGHT EXPECT INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST...WITH A PLUME OF LOWER MVFR CIGS FROM MBL UP ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS PLUME WILL MOVE EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW REACHING PLN DURING THE MORNING...AND POTENTIALLY
MBL/TVC BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT THAT APN WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.

SNOW RATES/CHARACTER: ANY SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY WILL
BE VERY LIGHT /NO MORE THAN A COATING IN AN HOUR/ AND LIKELY
RESTRICTED TO PLN. SNOW WILL BE DRY/FLUFFY.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO WEST 5KTS OR LESS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
5-10KTS TONIGHT /EXCEPT CALM TO LIGHT-VARIABLE AT APN/ BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHENING TO 10G18KTS BY MID/LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

LLWS: 1.5-2.0KFT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 30KTS
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEGINNING BY LATE EVENING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MIXING WEDNESDAY MORNING
SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY SHEAR LAYERS.

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...MB
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...ARNOTT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1221 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG/DRY
AIRMASS WITH PWAT UNDER 0.10 INCH OVER THE UPR LKS IN WNW FLOW ALF
BTWN CLOSED LO OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND LO AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HI PRES IS CENTERED OVER IOWA EARLY THIS MRNG.
COMBINATION OF THE LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING UPR RDG/ACYC LLVL FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS IS BRINGING TRANQUIL
WX TO THE AREA THIS MRNG. DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER THE LK...
THE ONLY NOTICEABLE OPEN AREAS ARE NEAR THE NW SHORE NEXT TO MN AND
CANADA...THERE ARE SOME LINGERING LK CLDS/PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES IN
ONTONAGON COUNTY AND OVER THE ERN CWA WITH LLVL NW FLOW TO THE NE OF
THE HI CENTER. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN SHARPLY AOB -20F OVER THE INTERIOR
W AND CNTRL WHERE SKIES ARE MOCLR/WINDS LGT UNDER THE DRY AIRMASS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM... SKIES ARE MOCLR OVER MN...BUT SOME HI CLDS ARE
STREAMING INTO THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF SHRTWV RIDING INTO
SASKATCHEWAN OVER ROCKIES RDG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS NI THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE TEMPS TDAY AND THEN
POPS TNGT AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY...SFC HI CENTER OVER IOWA IS FCST TO MOVE TO THE SE GREAT LKS
AND SFC LO ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV IN CANADA IS PROGGED TO REACH
NEAR LK WINNIPEG BY 00Z WED. THE LLVL FLOW WL BACK STEADILY TO THE
SW THRU THE DAY. SO ANY LINGERING LK CLDS/FLURRIES OVER MAINLY THE
ERN CWA THIS MRNG WL LIFT OUT INTO THE OPEN LK AS H85 TEMPS RECOVER
TOWARD -10C. OTRW...EXPECT TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS UNDER
MOSUNNY SKIES. A STEADY SSW WIND WL DVLP THIS AFTN OVER ESPECIALLY
THE W HALF UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING SFC HI AND
APRCHG LO/ATTENDANT COLD FNT EXTENDING INTO THE NRN PLAINS AT 00Z.

TNGT...SHRTWV OVER SCENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NW
ONTARIO DURING THE NGT...WITH ATTENDANT COMMA TAIL MSTR RIBBON/AXIS
OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CVNGC SHIFTING W-E ACRS THE CWA. STRENGTHENING
SW FLOW...WITH H85 WINDS INCRSG UP TO 50KTS TO THE S OF SHARP PRES
FALL CENTER IN ONTARIO...IS FCST BY 00Z NAM/GFS TO DRAW MOISTER AIR
WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UP TO 1.5-2 G/KG INTO THE CWA OVERNGT. WL
GO WITH LIKELY POPS ARRIVING OVER THE W ARND MIDNGT AND THEN
SHIFTING TO THE E. FOR EXPECTED 3-6 HR PERIOD OF SN...EXPECT AROUND
AN INCH OF SN AT MOST PLACES TO PERHAPS 1.5 INCHES AT SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH INCRSG SW WINDS/CLDS AND MSTR...EXPECT A MODEST
DIURNAL TEMP FALL WITH MIN TEMPS OCCURRING RELATIVELY EARLY. THE
BEST CHC FOR A SHARPER EVNG TEMP FALL WL BE OVER THE SE CWA...WHERE
THE DEEPER MSTR/STRONGER WINDS WL ARRIVE LATER. THE STEADY SW WIND
WL MAKE THE AIR FELL COLDER AND CAUSE SOME BLSN WHERE WINDS ARE A
BIT STRONGER NEAR THE SHORELINES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

TO START THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED FROM SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF
SNOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS
OVER THE EASTERN CWA WILL BE AROUND 1-1.5IN...BUT GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CREATE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE
TO BLOWING SNOW. THE DEEP MOISTURE IS VERY THIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO THERE SHOULD BE A QUICK END TO THE SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA AND JUST SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE AIDED BY SOME BREAKS IN THE ICE ON
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AREAS...BUT WITH THE FAIRLY LARGE
ICE COVERAGE ON THE LAKE...THINK THE ASSISTANCE WILL BE LIMITED.
PLUS...THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES AND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BEINGS TO
DEPART ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SETS UP THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
AND MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
FROM THE PACIFIC TROUGH THAT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FACT THAT THERE ARE ONLY SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SINCE THERE ARE TWO
SHORTWAVES AT PLAY WITH THIS EVENT. THE FIRST WAVE SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE A SECONDARY WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE TROUGH
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IMPACING THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING UP THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THESE TWO OTHER FEATURES COME TO PLAY IN THE LOW
THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT LARGELY NOT UNTIL THE
LOW IS DEPARTING ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SUBTILE
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW TRACK...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING (850-500MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION...ALONG WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TRACK) ALL POINT TOWARDS THE BEST SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INCREASING POP/QPF GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CWA.
TIMING FOR THE EVENT HAS THE SNOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 1.5-4.5IN
RANGE...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY AND
THE HIGHEST OVER KEWEENAW COUNTY. AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW FALLS THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA
UNDER INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT IT SHOULDN/T HAVE TOO
MUCH IMPACT ON CONDITIONS.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST...COLDER AIR WILL FLOW SOUTHEAST UNDER
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGER WINDS BY ABOUT 3 HOURS
BASED OFF THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. STRENGTH AND DIRECTION STILL
DEPENDS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT STILL EXPECT A
FAVORABLE PERIOD OF 25-30KT WINDS SURGING IN BEHIND THE LOW. THIS
WILL LIKELY CREATE A PERIOD OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE ICE WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION AND PLENTY OF OPEN SPACE FOR SNOW TO BE PICKED
UP. THINK THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW
AND FROM MARQUETTE EASTWARD. THIS WIND WILL BE OFFSET FROM THE MAIN
SNOW...SO THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL MAINLY COME FROM THE
BLOWING SNOW AND BE LIMITED TO OPEN AREAS.

WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR SURGING IN BEHIND THE LOW (850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -18C)...ANY GAPS IN THE ICE COVER WOULD SUPPORT SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS BUT WOULDN/T EXPECT TO SEE
ANYTHING STRONGER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING EAST OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO APPROACH THE REGION WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY EVENING AND SLIDING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BEFORE ENTERING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. CONTINUE TO THINK THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA (HIGHEST NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER). A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES ON MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

WITH DRY HIGH PRES EXITING THE AREA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
LINGER AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THE EVENING...BUT WITH AN INCREASING
SW WIND AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A
LOW PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
BY EVENING WITH JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS RATHER
THAN LLWS. AS THE LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES...A BAND OF -SN WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...ARRIVING TOWARD MIDNIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX AND
THEN A FEW HRS LATER AT KSAW. WITH COMBINATION OF -SN AND SOME
BLSN...VIS WILL PROBABLY DROP TO IFR AT ALL TERMINALS FOR A FEW HRS
THOUGH KSAW WOULD BE MOST FAVORED FOR LOW VIS WITH STRONGER WINDS
CREATING MORE BLSN THERE. QUICK ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
DIMINISH THE SNOW FROM W-E...BUT MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST AT ALL
TERMINALS THRU WED MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING...S TO SW WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTN/NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES TROF.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES TONIGHT OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE
COVERED...LEADING TO A MORE STABLE TEMP PROFILE...MAIN AREA OF PRES
FALLS PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE AN ENHANCING FACTOR
FOR STRONGER WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED WITH PASSAGE OF LOW PRES
TROF. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS WED NIGHT...WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN THU AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKS E...CROSSING
THE UPPER LAKES LATE THU. A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
IS LIKELY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW THU...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
NORTHERLY GALES OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH W TO E FRI AFTN/NIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING INTO SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GAYLORD MI

1153 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

TEMPERATURES WERE COLD WHERE IT CLEARED. HERE ARE THE LEADERS THIS
MORNING...INDIAN RIVER (-25F)...PELLSTON AND ATLANTA (-23F)
GAYLORD (-21F).

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

LIGHT WNW FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING SPORADIC MVFR
CIGS TO MBL/TVC THROUGH MID MORNING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLOUD
UP AGAIN DUE TO DIURNAL PROCESSES...AT LEAST FOR A CHUNK OF THE
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD INITIALLY BE MVFR. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR ALL TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON WHETHER OR NOT THE CIGS CAN RETURN TO MVFR TONIGHT AS
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SW...SCRAPING THE NW LOWER COASTLINE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS HOWEVER.

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

UPDATE...ARNOTT
SYNOPSIS...MB
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

639 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS NI THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE TEMPS TDAY AND THEN
POPS TNGT AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

WITH DRY HI PRES PASSING THRU THE LOWER LKS DOMINATING TODAY...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BUT A STEADY SW WIND BY THE AFTN AS THE PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING INTO
SCENTRAL CANADA. GUSTY SSW WINDS WL DVLP THIS EVNG AS THE LO PRES
TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE LO PASSING THRU ONTARIO MOVES CLOSER AND
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER. FCST SDNGS HINT AT ENUF LLVL
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS...SO REMOVED MENTION OF LLWS.
SOME LGT SN WL ARRIVE TOWARD MIDNGT AT IWD/CMX AND THEN MOVE INTO
SAW IN THE EARLY MRNG HRS. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE SSW FLOW MAY
LIMIT VSBY RESTRICTION TO MVFR RANGE AT CMX/IWD...BUT MORE FVRBL
FLOW FOR SAW INDICATES IFR VSBYS MAY OCCUR AT THAT SITE. THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALF WL DIMINISH THE SN W-E...BUT MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS THRU 12Z WED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

413 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS NI THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE TEMPS TDAY AND THEN
POPS TNGT AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014

OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING LAKE CLOUDS/FLURRIES AT KCMX INTO EARLY
OVERNIGHT...ALL THE TAF SITES SHOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SOME LIGHT SNOW
COULD REACH INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES LATE TUE NIGHT TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TOWARD MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

411 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS NI THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE TEMPS TDAY AND THEN
POPS TNGT AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

823 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT/FGEN OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA HAS LED
TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING. KINL HAS
DROPPED TO 5SM IN SNOW...AND KBDE/KFGN/KROX HAVE ALSO REPORTED
SNOW. THE 00Z NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS SURFACE
LOW TRACK WHEN COMPARED TO THE 18Z RUN. IT IS NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS. WE DO NOT PLAN ON ANY
MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

AT 345 PM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH TO THE
TEENS AND 20S IN THE SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

WATER VAPOR SHOWED A WELL DEFINED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF MID AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD VSBYS
BELOW ONE MILE COVERED MUCH OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE MODELS
WERE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND THE EXPECTED QPF. THE NAM HAS FINALLY SHIFTED
ITS TRACK TO THE SOUTH AS OF 18Z. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED
FURTHER SOUTH THAN EVEN THE 18Z NAM...AND HAVE GONE WITH A
SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND GFS. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE
ADVISORY THAT WE HAVE ISSUED OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS IF WE SHOULD HAVE HAD AN ADVISORY
FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THINK A
WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY 1 TO 3 SOUTH. HOWEVER
A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK COULD RESULT IN
ADVISORY SNOW ACROSS EVEN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
NSSL WRF REFLECTIVITY LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE EVEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ALSO WORRY ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. NOT A LOT OF OPEN
WATER BUT OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD EVEN CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A
DECENT BOOST IN AMOUNTS.

THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND INCREASE. THE RESULT
WILL BE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AS
A DEPARTING SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NERN WISC. COLDER THAN CLIMO TEMPS
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
INITIAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL TRY TO RETURN
NORTHWARD SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A SFC LOW MOVING INTO SRN MN BY
LATE SAT AFTN. MAIN SFC HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER ONTARIO SO ITS TOUGH
TO TELL HOW FAR NORTH POTENTIAL ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL MOVE. AT
THIS TIME WILL GIVE SRN TIER OF ZONES LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.
INCREASING DISPARITY AMONGST MED RANGE NWP REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF
A SFC TROUGH LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. THERE IS A GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
MID LVL TROF WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD. EC/GEM ARE
VERY CLOSE IN THEIR SLOWER MOVEMENT EAST WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
FASTER. AS A RESULT EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN SNOW AFTER SUNDAY
EVENING AND PROBABLY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. BEYOND THAT..MDLS
CONVERGING ON A SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW TO A VERY FAST FLOW FROM
EPAC ACROSS CONUS WITH LITTLE AMPLIFICATION OF MIGRATORY SHORTWAVES.
THIS WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT A WARMING TREND OVER THE REGION WITH
TEMPS ACTUALLY MOVING ABOVE CLIMO NEXT WEEK. LATEST NAEFS
PROBABILITY OF MAX TEMPS OF 0C OR HIGHER REACHES 70 TO 80 PERCENT
OVER MOST OF CWA NEXT THURSDAY. WE SHALL SEE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

A POTENT CLIPPER WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHERN SK INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA TONIGHT...THEN INTO WISCONSIN THURSDAY. THE TREND
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FOR CEILINGS/VSBYS TO DROP TO IFR/MVFR.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN HAVE RECENTLY STARTED TO MOVE NORTH. WE TIMED THESE
LOWER CEILINGS INTO KHYR/KBRD/KDLH USING THE LATEST RAP AND MAY
HAVE TO ADJUST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME LLWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT FOR MAINLY KBRD/KHYR
AS A LLJ DEVELOPS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 8 23 -5 11 / 90 100 20 0
INL -1 13 -14 7 / 90 100 10 10
BRD 10 22 -6 13 / 90 90 10 0
HYR 11 30 -2 14 / 90 100 20 0
ASX 10 29 1 13 / 90 90 40 10

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-026-035.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
MNZ011-012-019>021-037.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
WIZ001-002.

LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

604 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND INCREASE. THE RESULT
WILL BE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

SOME LLWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT FOR MAINLY KBRD/KHYR
AS A LLJ DEVELOPS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 8 23 -5 11 / 90 100 20 0
INL -1 13 -14 7 / 90 100 10 10
BRD 10 22 -6 13 / 90 90 10 0
HYR 11 30 -2 14 / 90 100 20 0
ASX 11 29 1 13 / 90 90 40 10

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-026-035.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
MNZ011-012-019>021-037.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
WIZ001-002.

LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

344 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA... WITH RETURN FLOW JUST BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL TRY TO BE PULLED NORTH AND EASTWARD THIS MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW SETS UP FROM 850-700MB. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE
MOVING INTO DRIER AIR... AND SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REMAINING
AS EXTENSIVE. HOWEVER... WE WILL SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD INCREASE IN
MID-HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA AND WE BEGIN TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
ALBERTA. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND HELP TO FURTHER
STRENGTHEN WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. 850MB TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN CLIMB ABOVE ZERO FOR A
TIME OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE THINGS SATURATE
AND COOL BACK DOWN BELOW FREEZING. WE DON/T APPEAR TO SATURATE
THROUGH THE LAYER UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS... WHEN A MODEST BAND OF
900-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND DPVA WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL WORK TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF SNOWFALL OVER THE AREA. MODEL PCPN AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY FROM 0.05-0.15 INCHES... WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
THE SHORT WINDOW OF SATURATION AND FORCING. SNOW RATIOS SHOULDN/T BE
TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM CLIMATOLOGY AS WE WARM AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
AND FORECAST PROFILES DON/T SHOW MUCH DEPTH TO THE DENDRITIC LAYER.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA... WHERE THE GFS AND ECMWF
FOCUS SLIGHTLY HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS... LOOK TO HAVE THE POOREST
RATIOS DUE TO WARMER PROFILES. SO... OVERALL NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
OF AN ISSUE WITH THE SNOW TONIGHT... GENERALLY IN THE 0.5 TO 1.5
INCH RANGE. PRIOR TO THE FALLING SNOW... WE COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RECENT SNOWFALL... IT/S TOUGH TO
SAY WHETHER MUCH WILL BLOW AROUND... BUT GIVEN EXPECTED WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS ABOVE 25 OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DECIDED
TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF IT. WINDS WILL QUIET DOWN TONIGHT AS THE
ACTUAL SNOWFALL WORKS INTO THE AREA... SO IT SHOULDN/T HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT IN TERMS OF CONTRIBUTING TO PARTICULARLY LOW VISIBILITIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

LONGER TERM CONTINUES TO FEATURE FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS ALONG
WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND.

INITIAL FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA
THROUGH 15Z WED. THIS SHOULD LEAVE A COOLING TREND INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES SATURATE THE NORTHEAST QUAD OF THE
CWA MAINLY AFTER 06Z THU...SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE TYPE POPS
FOR THIS. APPEARS BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN ALONG THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR TO THE TWIN CITIES AREA AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING TH DAY THURSDAY. MODEL TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN
NAMWRF FARTHEST NORTH AND THE GFS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. THE 00Z ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THE TWO...RIDING MAINLY
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS TREND...AS THIS MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE NAMWRF IS
ALLOWING A STRONGER WAVE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE ECMWF/GEM
AND TO SOME DEGREE THE GFS...WERE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST
WITH THIS NEXT WAVE. WE HAVE INCLUDED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
DURING THAT PERIOD FOR NOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THEN, SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE
CLIPPER...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT COOLER THAT THE GFS. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR P-TYPE TRENDS INTO THE WEEK FOR THIS SYSTEM. WE DID
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY.

LONGER TERM SHOULD BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA AS THE
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AND THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EAST. SOME
INDICATION OF ANOTHER...POSSIBLY MIXED TYPE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

BIGGEST CHANGE IN THINKING FROM 00Z TAFS DEALS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS TUE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THERE IS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS NEB AND AS SRLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED THE RAP AND HRRR
START PUSHING THIS MOISTURE NORTH TOWARD MN. FOR NOW...ADDED SOME
SCT CLOUD WORDING AROUND 025-030 FOR THE AFTERNOON FROM RWF/STC
EAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE BATTLING SOME VERY DRY AIR TO GET INTO
MN...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE NEXT SHIFT TO WATCH. AS FOR
SNOW...00Z NAM/GFS BOTH SHOWING A BAND OF SNOW IMPACTING ALL
TERMINALS TUE NIGHT. THE NAM CAME IN ABOUT 3 HRS SLOWER THAN ITS
18Z COUNTERPART WHILE THE GFS HAS MAINTAINED A SIMILAR TIMING. FOR
THESE TAFS...JUST PUSHED BACK ANY SNOW MENTION AN HOUR OR
TWO...SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM. HAVE KEPT
CONDS MVFR WITH SNOW...BUT WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL WINDOW WHERE IFR
VIS IS SEEN WITH -SN.

KMSP...MAY SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN AROUND 00Z BASED ON RAPS HANDLING
OF CIGS CURRENTLY DOWN IN CENTRAL NEB...BUT CONFIDENCE TO LOW IN
THEM SURVIVING DRY TO MENTION IN TAF. 00Z NAM HAS SNOW STARTING
AT 7Z...WITH THE 00Z GFS STILL GOING WITH 3Z. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
WITH THIS TAF WITH A 5Z START TIME. MAY LINGER PAST 9Z...BUT STILL
LOOKS GOOD TO BE DONE BY 12Z. IN ADDITION...WILL LIKELY BE A
COUPLE HOUR WINDOW WHERE VIS GETS DOWN INTO IFR LEVELS...BUT WE
HAVE TIME TO PIN DOWN THAT TIMING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/-SN EARLY. BCMG VFR. WINDS BCMG W 5-10 KTS.
THU...CHC MVFR CIGS AND -SN. WINDS WSW 10-15KTS IN MORNING...BCMG
NW 15-20KTS IN AFTERNOON.
FRI...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS EARLY. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041>045-
047>059-064>068-073>076-082>084-091.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014.

SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1055 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

.UPDATE...

6Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO... WITH A FEW OF THE
COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLE SNEAKING DOWN BELOW -20. WE WILL START TO SEE
SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH KICK IN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT... AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CWFA TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS
COLD AS THEY OTHERWISE MIGHT... BUT WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO
DROP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL GREET MOST FOLKS AS THEY
VENTURE OUT IN THE MORNING. A QUICKLY MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE
ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER TUESDAY... AND WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF MINNESOTA TUESDAY EVENING. WE COULD SEE SOME PCPN OUT
AHEAD OF IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...
THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... WITH AN INCREASE IN
MID-HIGH CLOUDS AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE WARM ADVECTION OUT OF AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

THE ARCTIC WAVE TRAIN WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...WITH
BRIEF COOL DOWNS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE QUICK MOVING ALBERTA
CLIPPERS.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MN. TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN SPLIT FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A BROAD
AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING OUT AHEAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A WARMER THAN IDEAL PROFILE FOR HIGH SNOW RATIOS...WITH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE CONFINED TO THE 700-600MB LAYER. MODEL
GENERATED QPF IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 0.10 TO 0.15 INCHES...SO
EXPECT TO SEE AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS RELAX AND BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG I-94 THURSDAY...SPREADING SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MN. THIS SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE ORGANIZED BASED OFF THE
THERMAL FIELDS AND FRONTOGENIC/FRONTOLYTIC COUPLED FORCING. THE
CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT SO MUCH THE SNOW...SINCE THE
MAJORITY WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT MORE SO THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN BOTH MODELS AND
RUNS...BUT THERE IS INDICATION THAT WIND GUSTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER COULD REACH 40KTS...WHICH COULD REALISTICALLY
TRANSLATE TO AROUND 40MPH AT THE SURFACE. THE SNOW PACK IS FAIRLY
MATURE...AND THE DURATION OF THE WINDS WILL BE ONLY A FEW
HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO ADDRESS THIS BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL WITH A
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE IN THE COMING DAYS.

SIMILAR TO THE GOLDILOCKS FAIRY TALE...THE THIRD CLIPPER ON
SATURDAY IS JUST RIGHT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE CWA AS IT
TAKES A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY WITH
THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIP BAND RIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN
WI. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM 10.12 ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THIS PRECIP. THE GFS IS A BIT WARMER...SO BUMPED
IT DOWN A FEW DEGREES WHEN USING ITS THERMAL PROFILE TO GENERATE
THE WEATHER GRIDS. ALSO INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO 50 PERCENT
ACROSS THE METRO...BUT THIS MAY BE ONLY HALF AS MUCH AS IS
ACTUALLY NECESSARY FOR THIS EVENT IF IT REMAINS ON TRACK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
MNZ043>045-049>053-057>059-065>068-073>076-082>084-091.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ041-042-047-
048-054>056-064.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ014.

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

434 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE ARKLAMISS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING..

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE REGION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONG
UPPER S/WV IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...BEHIND THE S/WV THAT BROUGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COLD TODAY AS LAPS
INDICATES H925 TEMPS AROUND 0 TO -1 DEG C FROM ALONG/NW OF A LINE
FROM WINNSBORO TO COLUMBUS. SURFACE FREEZING TEMPERATURE/WET BULB
LINE RUNS FROM SW/NE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE H925 LINE INDICATED
BEFORE. THIS IS ALL INDICATING TEMPERATURES IN THE W/NW WILL ONLY
BARELY RISE OR STAY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
AS TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/BELOW FREEZING. GFS/EURO/NAM BUFFER
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
IN THE FAR NW DELTA...AND CURRENT SLEET/FREEZING RAIN REPORTS COMING
IN ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THAT POTENTIAL.

THE WINTER STORM WARNING WAS EXTENDED NORTHWARD AS LOCAL WRF/HRRR
AND GLOBAL MODEL SUITE...ECMWF/GFS...INDICATE INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASING ICING ACCUMULATIONS IN THE DELTA LATER TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE SOME TRANSITION TO SNOW AND HI-RES HRRR INDICATES POTENTIAL
OF QPF APPROACHING 0.1-0.25 INCHES BY 02Z TONIGHT. THUS...INTRODUCED
CHANCE SNOW/SLEET IN THE FAR NW DELTA. ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE 00Z WILL
BE LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH. ALSO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
EXTENDED A TIER OF COUNTIES SE DUE TO TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING IN THESE AREAS AND LIKELY NOT TO RISE MUCH...IF AT
ALL...LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THERE IS SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT ICING IN THESE LOCATIONS ALONG/NW OF A LINE FROM
FERRIDAY TO JACKSON TO NEAR MACON. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE FREEZING
RAIN IN THESE AREAS UNTIL 6Z WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WENT CLOSE TO BLEND OF
MAV/MEN FOR LOWS/POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT/MOISTURE APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL
ENOUGH FOR A VARIETY OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. FROM AREAS SE OF A LINE
FROM CROSSETT TO GREENWOOD...MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SLEET/ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MELTING LAYER APPROACHING 2000-5000
FT DEEP WILL SUPPORT SOME PARTIAL AND FULL MELT SCENARIOS. AREAS IN
THE WINTER STORM WARNING COUNTIES WILL HAVE A POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NW. ACCUMULATIONS
OF ICE TONIGHT WILL APPROACH 0.5-1.0 INCHES...WHICH WILL CAUSE
HEAVY ICING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND POWER
OUTAGES. UPPER S/WV WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW CYCLOGENESIS AND WILL
AID IN A SW TO NE ORIENTED FREEZING LINE. A STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE
WILL BE PRESENT AS H85 FLOW CONVERGES IN THE FAR NW. THE COMBINATION
OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE...AS DEPICTED IN PRECIP ON THE FAR NW SIDE
OF THE 1010MB SURFACE LOW...AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SUFFICIENT SNOWFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. SOME SNOWFALL TOTALS
COULD APPROACH 1-3 INCHES AND SOME HI-RES HRRR RUNS WERE A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...EXPECTING A COMBINATION OF SLEET/SNOW TO
CUT DOWN SNOW TOTAL IN THIS REGION. WENT NEAR MAV/MEN FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. WENT NEAR MAV
POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT KEPT HIGHER POPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DEFORMATION AXIS...WHICH IS MAINLY IN N/NE MS.

AS THE UPPER S/WV MOVES OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE LOW MOVES
E....TEMPS ALOFT WILL COOL AND MIXED PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO MORE RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SNOW/MIX IN THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL/E
MS AS THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION TO ONLY TRANSITION FOR A SHORT PERIOD FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES WILL EXTEND UNTIL 6Z THURSDAY BEFORE ALL
PRECIPITATION EXITS THE REGION. 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW AND LOWS THURSDAY MORNING
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 20S. AREAS IN THE W/NW THAT RECEIVE
SNOWFALL/ICE WILL LIKELY KEEP THAT AROUND UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WENT NEAR MAV/MEN BLEND FOR LOWS THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL FINALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY...LEADING TO A NICE AND MUCH
WARMER AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. WENT NEAR MAVMOS FOR
HIGHS THURSDAY. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE WARMER AS SOME CLOUDS
MOVE INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. WENT NEAR MAVMOS. PREVIOUS
RELEVANT PORTION OF LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL THANKFULLY LOOKING
WARMER AND RELATIVELY UNEXCITING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN OUR GENERAL
VICINITY AND ALONG OUR LATITUDE SHOULD TREND QUICKLY TO ZONAL FOR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THE RENEWED EAST PACIFIC JET SLAMMING ENERGY INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE BULK OF THE WINTER THUS
FAR AND WILL BE KEEPING ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP FURTHER NORTH.
REGARDLESS...A COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO COME THROUGH FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS TILL THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT OFFICIAL RAIN MENTION FOR FRIDAY OUT OF THE
FORECAST...BUT THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST
FORECAST.

BY THE WEEKEND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH
AROUND TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER FROPA WITH MARGINAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
POTENTIAL OCCURS. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REALLY BE TRENDING
ABOVE NORMAL IN WIDESPREAD FASHION. OPERATIONAL GFS-BASED MAX
GUIDANCE LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WITH BOTH TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE. /BB/

.AVIATION...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO MVFR AT KGLH/KGWO
AFTER 12/00Z AS FZRA MOVES INTO THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST AT KGTR...BUT ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS WILL MEAN JUST RAIN AS A
WEATHER TYPE THERE. IFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE
RULE OVERNIGHT AT KJAN/KHKS/KMEI/KHBG. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS
FZRA AT KJAN/KHKS...BUT CHANGE TO RA AFTER 12/06Z. /26/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 33 38 26 53 / 100 36 14 0
MERIDIAN 37 44 26 57 / 100 78 24 0
VICKSBURG 32 36 25 54 / 100 26 4 0
HATTIESBURG 38 47 30 56 / 99 44 15 0
NATCHEZ 31 36 26 56 / 100 24 2 0
GREENVILLE 27 32 24 51 / 95 40 7 0
GREENWOOD 29 36 25 52 / 96 70 15 0

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ029>033-
037>039-043-044-048-053.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>028-034>036-040>042-047.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ045-
049-050-054-059-060.

LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ024-025.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LAZ026.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

DC/BB/26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

1022 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...RUNNING A BIT LATE WITH THE UPDATE THIS EVENING...AS
WE HAVE BEEN WAITING TO SEE AS MUCH OF THE 00Z MODEL DATA AS
POSSIBLE. WE DID MAKE ONE ADJUSTMENT TO HEADLINES TO EXPAND THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE CLAIBORNE...NEWTON AND LAUDERDALE
COUNTIES. IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTHERNMOST ADVISORY GROUPING...BUT THE 21Z SREF FREEZING RAIN
PROBS JUMPED UP A TICK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH MEAN QPF GREATER
THAN 1/2 INCH NOW NORTH OF I-20. LATEST RAP SURFACE TEMPS ADD
CONFIDENCE TO THIS FORECAST...SHOW THE FREEZING LINE DIPPING INTO
THESE AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS GAVE US ENOUGH CONCERN TO ADD A
FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CURRENT WSW
CONFIGURATION. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE THAT QPF MAY
BE MORE LIMITED THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT WE WILL WAIT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW
GUIDANCE SUITE TO COME IN TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION
BEFORE CONSIDERING FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.

WILL ALSO BACK OFF A BIT ON SNOW WORDING IN THE WX GRIDS TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS SHOW MUCH MORE
IN THE WAY OF SLEET POTENTIAL FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP...WITH
SNOW REMAINING MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. UPDATES
WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /DL/

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AERODROME WHERE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
AND KEEP VISIBILITIES AT MAINLY MVFR AS WELL. ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR AT THESE LOCATION WHERE
RAINFALL CAN BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY. OVER THE NORTHERN AREODROME TAF
POINTS...A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING
ZR...IP...AND SN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD REDUCING THE
VISIBILITIS TO MVFR BUT ALLOWING CEILINGS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH
12Z...LOWERING TO MVFR THEREAFTER./26/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 524 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014/

WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS...

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX REGION AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVING EAST. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WE ARE SEEING BACKING OF
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ABOVE A
SHALLOW POLAR AIRMASS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS STILL ANTICIPATED
OVER THE ENTIRE ARKLAMISS TONIGHT...WITH THE GENERAL IDEA FOR HEAVIER
QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN UPPER
JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST.

MEANWHILE...VERY COLD AIR IS FUNNELING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO KEEP UP
WITH THE COOLING IN THE ARKLAMISS. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES NEVER
EXCEED 32F IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DELTA REGION...AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S WERE OBSERVED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20
CORRIDOR IN NE LA. THIS IS FURTHER REFLECTED IN COOLER FORECAST
GUIDANCE FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE TRENDED
COOLER IN THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

AS HAS BEEN INDICATED THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE GREATEST RISK FOR UP TO
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET WILL BE ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR
WITH ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. FARTHER
SOUTH...A PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL
FREEZING RAIN IN AREAS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE CAN FALL BELOW FREEZING
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THE COMBINATION OF
PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR (GREATEST SUB-FREEZING DURATION) WILL
MAXIMIZE OVER NE LA INTO WEST CENTRAL MS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LAST
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IN THIS AREA...STILL EXPECT THAT TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY COULD EXCEED ONE INCH. HAVE EXTENDED THE
WARNING SOUTH OVER NE LA INCLUDING FRANKLIN/MADISON PARISHES. HEAVY
ICE POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THERE ROUGHLY ALONG THE 33RD
PARALLEL INTO EAST CENTRAL MS WHERE AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND HAVE
EXTENDED THE WARNING AREA SOUTHWARD INTO WINSTON/NOXUBEE COUNTIES.
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD DEVELOP THERE IF MORE FREEZING RAIN OCCURS
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WE ARE NOT QUITE AS CONFIDENT OF THAT HAPPENING
ATTM.

FARTHER SOUTH...IT IS STILL A VERY TRICKY FORECAST FOR AREAS JUST
SOUTH OF THE WARNING WHERE CONFIDENCE IN THE FREEZING LINE FORECAST
IS NOT GREAT...THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG A
JACKSON TO DEKALB LINE. ONE THING WE HAVE NOTICED THOUGH AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER OVERALL AS IT STRUGGLES TO KEEP
UP WITH LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. THIS STRUGGLE COULD CONTINUE RIGHT UP
UNTIL DAYBREAK...BUT FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW COOLER TREND IN
THE FORECAST AND HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH AND INDICATED SLIGHTLY MORE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
ICE IN THIS AREA. IT APPEARS THE 600 TO 900 AM TIME FRAME WILL BE
WHEN COOLING MAXIMIZES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLAMISS AND HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF THIS RISK. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TONIGHT...WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE THE WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN SOME OF THE HEAVIER QPF
SHOWING UP THEN.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DAYS HAVE CONTINUED TO EMPHASIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
QUICKLY APPROACHES. GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT RISE ABOVE
FREEZING OVER NE LA TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING PRECIP
IN THE AFTERNOON...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AND
ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED...PERHAPS EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL MS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IN HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT AN ADVISORY COULD BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE RIGHT NOW.

AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY...THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A
DEFORMATION AXIS TO SET UP WITH SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASING
PERHAPS...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST MS.
THIS IS BASED ON MODEL TRENDS OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD...MORE ON THIS LATER. /EC/

LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

AFTER WEDNESDAY EVENING THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD GETS
MUCH LESS COMPLICATED AND FEATURES A GRADUAL WARMING TREND MOST
PROMINENTLY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL OF COURSE BE CHILLY IN THE
WAKE OF THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT...BUT AFTER THAT POINT THE AMOUNT OF
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REGION IS VERY LIMITED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE WARMING TREND IS THE RESULT OF LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGES AFOOT FOR NORTH AMERICA...MOST NOTABLY THE LOSS OF
CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THIS
CHANGE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC SURGES INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT MEAN COLD FRONTS ARE A THING OF THE
PAST. ONE SUCH COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH VERY
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ANTICIPATED. EURO MODEL ACTUALLY A LITTLE
STOUTER THAN THE OP GFS WITH THE TEMPORARY COOL DOWN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND I TRENDED MEXMOS TEMPS THAT DIRECTION. NEXT SHOT AT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOULD COME AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK. /BB/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 32 37 33 38 / 90 89 91 45
MERIDIAN 33 37 35 44 / 89 90 91 54
VICKSBURG 31 34 31 35 / 89 84 91 27
HATTIESBURG 38 43 38 48 / 80 90 88 53
NATCHEZ 34 37 32 37 / 88 90 92 28
GREENVILLE 26 33 27 34 / 90 75 88 30
GREENWOOD 27 34 28 34 / 89 75 88 39

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MSZ027>033-
035>039-042.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ040-041.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025-026-034-043>053.

LA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LAZ024-025.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

DL/26/EC/BB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

858 PM MST WED FEB 12 2014

.UPDATE...
PRESSURE RISES ARE CONTINUING ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES THIS EVENING BEHIND A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THIS HAS CAUSED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO WEAKEN. WINDS HAVE
FALLEN BELOW WARNING AND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL CANCEL THE
WIND HIGHLIGHTS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM NEAR NYE TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY MORNING OVER THESE AREAS AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER LEE SIDE TROUGH. WINDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY`S BUT ADVISORY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

OTHER CHANGES TONIGHT WAS TO LOWER CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WERE
ON TRACK AND DID NOT ADJUST. RICHMOND

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION TODAY THANKS TO A STRONG
MID LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A STRONG SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA WOUND UP OVER NE MONTANA HELPED PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA COMBINED WITH 700MB FLOW AROUND
70 KTS. THE WIND HIGHLIGHTS HAVE WORKED OUT WELL THROUGH THE DAY.
LIVINGSTON HAS GUSTED AS HIGH AS 76 MPH...63 MPH AT JUDITH GAP AND
62 MPH AT BIG TIMBER. SUSTAINED WINDS HIT AROUND 50 MPH AT TIMES
ACROSS THE WEST. IN ADDITION...SOME APPARENT MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION
OVER THE BIG HORNS PRODUCED WINDS GUSTING UP TO 75 MPH AT DAYTON
IN SHERIDAN COUNTY OF WYOMING. WE TYPICALLY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW
OF MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY HIT THE SHERIDAN AREA AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE PRESSURE RISES WORK INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...WILL ADD A
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SHERIDAN THROUGH 8 PM. THE REST OF OUR
HIGHLIGHTS GO UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST PROBLEM IS
DO WE NEED TO EXTEND THEM INTO THURSDAY. THE RAP MODEL HAS
PRESSURE RISES DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA JUST AFTER 6 PM THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO
DIMINISH BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. HOWEVER...PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR
AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE. DATA FROM THE NAM SUGGEST PARAMETERS FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN AT BIG TIMBER BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY...BUT LIVINGSTON WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG.
THEREFORE...OUR PLAN IS TO HOLD ON TO THE HIGHLIGHTS AS THEY ARE
NOW...AND ADVISE NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS TO CONSIDER ADVISORY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR BIG TIMBER TOMORROW AND PERHAPS DOWNGRADING OR
RE-ISSUING LIVINGSTON/NYE AS AN ADVISORY RATHER THAN A WARNING
LIKE TODAYS AS THE THREAT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME DECENT SNOWFALL FELL IN THE COOKE
CITY VICINITY TODAY WITH UP TO 8 INCHES AT THE FISHER CREEK
SNOTEL. A LITTLE MORE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT THE NEXT
WAVE TO IMPACT THE HIGH COUNTRY COMES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
WHEN ANOTHER 3 TO 6 INCHES MAY PILE UP ON WEST FACING SLOPES.
ANOTHER GOOD WAVE WILL HIT THE HIGH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY PRODUCING
ANOTHER FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON WEST FACING SLOPES.
PLEASE NOTE THE AVALANCHE WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COOKE
CITY AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING.

GOOD MIXING TOMORROW SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH JUST A BIT COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND WITH PACIFIC ENERGY LATE
SAT/SUN BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AND SCATTERED
LOWER ELEVATION PRECIPITATION...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE SUN AFTN
INTO EVENING PERIOD AS MAIN TROF AXIS PASSES THROUGH. AS WITH EACH
OF THE SHORTWAVES THIS WEEK...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
PRE-FRONTAL GAP WINDS FOLLOWED BY SOME POST-FRONTAL WIND. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE GAP AREAS APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SAT NITE. TEMPS SAT/SUN WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S TO LOW 50S...WITH SAT OFFERING THE WARMER AIRMASS BUT SUN THE
BETTER MIXED DAY.

TROF DIGGING OFF THE PAC COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY WX MON/TUE. SHOULD POINT OUT THAT
TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND KEEP HEIGHTS ON THE
ORDER OF 550DAM OVER OUR REGION...AND AS A RESULT THE POTENTIAL
DOWNSLOPE WARMING DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG. SNOW COVER
SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF A FACTOR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SHOULD
SEE HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WITH TUE BEING THE WARMER
OF THE TWO DAYS. HAVE STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE HERE.
BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE GAP WIND POTENTIAL...BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY. WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO 50-55
KTS AND A TIGHT SFC GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
GAP AREAS...IE LIVINGSTON TO NYE. HAVE RAISED WIND SPEEDS IN THESE
AREAS TO SHOW GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD THAT PAC TROF WILL MOVE INLAND AND BEGIN
TO IMPACT OUR AREA TUE NITE OR WED...THOUGH DETAILS ARE VERY
UNCERTAIN...AS YOU WOULD EXPECT AT DAYS 7/8. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS BROADBRUSHED TUE NITE AND WED...HIGHEST OVER THE MTNS. TEMPS
WILL TAKE A STEP DOWN BUT COLDER CANADIAN AIR MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
THU/FRI.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING INTO THE 20KT TO 30KT RANGE. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/048 028/043 031/045 037/049 032/049 037/052 031/042
12/W 12/W 31/B 23/W 20/N 00/B 12/W
LVM 037/052 032/046 031/051 040/049 033/050 037/052 031/046
23/W 14/W 32/W 25/W 21/N 11/N 23/W
HDN 027/048 026/045 029/048 031/052 028/052 031/053 032/045
14/W 14/W 31/B 13/W 20/U 00/B 12/W
MLS 022/042 024/040 025/043 029/048 028/047 030/049 034/043
14/W 12/W 50/U 23/W 10/U 00/B 12/W
4BQ 029/045 025/045 027/047 030/052 028/052 029/055 034/047
13/W 11/B 40/B 13/W 30/U 00/U 02/W
BHK 020/036 021/038 022/039 025/045 024/043 029/046 028/044
16/W 21/B 50/U 12/W 10/U 00/U 01/B
SHR 030/046 025/044 027/049 030/052 024/050 027/054 029/046
12/W 11/B 30/B 14/W 40/U 00/B 12/W

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

654 PM MST WED FEB 12 2014

.UPDATE...
EARLY UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DROP HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SHERIDAN
COUNTY WYOMING. LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS SETUP AND THIS IS KEEPING
THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT FROM MIXING DOWN. WILL CONTINUE THE WIND
HIGHLIGHTS FOR PARK/SWEET GRASS AND WHEATLAND COUNTY AS WINDS
STILL CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA. EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE
IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PRESSURE RISES ARE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL WEAKEN SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS IN THESE AREAS. WILL DO ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND 9 PM THIS
EVENING. RICHMOND

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

GOOD MIXING TOMORROW SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH JUST A BIT COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG SW-W WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS. EXPECT GUSTS OF 50-60 KTS AT KLVM...
40-50 KTS AT K3HT...AND 30-40 KTS AS FAR EAST AS KBIL AND KSHR.
WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASE
AGAIN TOMORROW THOUGH WITH GUSTS NOT QUITE AS HIGH. OTHERWISE...
PCPN OVER THE MTNS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. ANOTHER PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE MTN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/
SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED.
JKL

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/048 028/043 031/045 037/049 032/049 037/052 031/042
12/W 12/W 31/B 23/W 20/N 00/B 12/W
LVM 037/052 032/046 031/051 040/049 033/050 037/052 031/046
23/W 14/W 32/W 25/W 21/N 11/N 23/W
HDN 027/048 026/045 029/048 031/052 028/052 031/053 032/045
14/W 14/W 31/B 13/W 20/U 00/B 12/W
MLS 022/042 024/040 025/043 029/048 028/047 030/049 034/043
14/W 12/W 50/U 23/W 10/U 00/B 12/W
4BQ 029/045 025/045 027/047 030/052 028/052 029/055 034/047
13/W 11/B 40/B 13/W 30/U 00/U 02/W
BHK 019/036 021/038 022/039 025/045 024/043 029/046 028/044
16/W 21/B 50/U 12/W 10/U 00/U 01/B
SHR 030/046 025/044 027/049 030/052 024/050 027/054 029/046
12/W 11/B 30/B 14/W 40/U 00/B 12/W

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 28-63-65-66.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR ZONE
41.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1048 PM MST MON FEB 10 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WDSPR MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED E OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TONIGHT AND WELL INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL PROBABLY ALSO EFFECT THE E. THE N
MTS...NE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS NEAR THE CO BORDER HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MORE PERSISTENT SNOW. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE N MTS...WITH AROUND 1 INCH POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CO BORDER FROM KRTN TO KCAO. SPOTTIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE CONTDVD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID DAY TUESDAY...AS THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS E OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
THEN...TUESDAY AFTERNOON A FEW SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP
OVER THE N MTS.

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MST MON FEB 10 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MAINLY
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AFTER TONIGHT...WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED WELL
ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS...AT LEAST WEST OF THE STRATUS DECK IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST CONTINUE
TO ERODE...THOUGH THEY MAY NOT COMPLETELY GO AWAY...VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME HOLES WILL DEVELOP AND LOCALLY WARM
IT UP A BIT.

LOOKS LIKE SOME BANDED PRECIPITATION HAS FORMED IN BOTH SE CO AND
NORTHERN AZ LATE THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NM OVERNIGHT. EVEN SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO
POP UP IN NW NM. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN VORT MAX WILL SLIDE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NM...WHERE LESS MOISTURE RESIDES...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MAIN
SNOW BAND WILL STAY ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE NM BORDER THIS
EVENING... THOUGH THE LOCAL WRF AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT IT WILL
EITHER SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT NE NM...OR THAT ANOTHER
WEAKER BAND WILL DEVELOP IN NE NM. KEPT THE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NE FOR THIS REASON. THIS BAND LIKELY WOULD NOT GET MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN A SPRINGER TO CLAYTON LINE...THOUGH COULD SEE LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. HI RES MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN
ADDITIONAL...VERY LIGHT... BAND OF PRECIP STRETCHING FROM NEAR
CORONA EASTWARD TOWARD PORTALES. INTERESTINGLY THOUGH...THIS BAND IS
ABSENT FROM THE 12Z ECMWF...THOUGH SEVERAL PREVIOUS RUNS HAD BEEN
ADVERTISING IT. AT BEST...WOULD THINK ONLY A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW
COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NE EITHER. WILL CONTINUE THE SPS AND
LET THE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE EAST. FREEZING FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT...THOUGH AREAS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL
BE FAVORED...ESPECIALLY AROUND KLVS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP SOME ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE EAST...THOUGH
GENERALLY WENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT BY THURSDAY...ALL AREAS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 AND 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WARM TEMPS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT EARLY FRIDAY WILL COOL DOWN THE EAST A FEW
DEGREES...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

.FIRE WEATHER...
OTHER THAN A LITTLE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT AND TUE MORN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NE HALF OF NM AND THE CURRENT COLDER THAN NORMAL
AIR OVER THE EAST LINGERING INTO TUE...IT LOOKS LIKE A LONG PERIOD
OF NO PRECIPITATION AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST A LITTLE BEYOND.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXISTS MAINLY FOR THU IN EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

NEAR TERM THE BACK DOOR FRONT HAS PULLED UP NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
NEAR RATON TO JUST WEST OF SANTA ROSA TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF DUNKEN
IN FAR SW CHAVES COUNTY. THE POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
ERODED TO A PRETTY GOOD DEGREE BUT WILL LIKELY THICKEN AND MAY
SPREAD A BIT FARTHER WEST TONIGHT COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORN AS THE
COLD FRONT MAKES IT TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND PERHAPS BELOW LOWER
CANYONS INTO SOME PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WITH THAT WILL
BE A FAIRLY MODEST EAST WIND MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN 10 TO 20 MPH
AND EVEN THOSE WINDS WILL DIE OUT BETWEEN DAWN AND MID MORN TUE.
CHANCE OF THE FRONT MAKING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY AND LARGE
IS UNDER 50 PERCENT. OF COURSE EAST OF THE FRONT RH RECOVERIES WILL
BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND ALMOST THAT GOOD FARTHER WEST
EXCEPT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM BERNALILLO COUNTY ON SOUTH.
RECOVERIES ONLY IN THE POOR TO ONLY LOCALLY GOOD RANGE MOST AREAS
FOR SEVERAL NIGHTS THEREAFTER. VENT RATES TO BE GENERALLY FAIR TO
GOOD TUE AND WED WITH A FEW VERY GOOD POCKETS IN CENTRAL AND NE
NM...THEN A MAJOR IMPROVEMENT THU WHERE MUCH OF AREA WILL BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT. UNFORTUNATELY IT DROPS BACK AGAIN FRI AND SAT BEFORE
REBOUNDING TO SOME DEGREE SUN...BUT NOT AS IMPRESSIVELY AS THU.

WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING MIDWEEK SOME MIN RH VALUES OF SLIGHTLY UNDER
15 PERCENT POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON...WHEN A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN AND ADJACENT TO DE BACA COUNTY.
OTHERWISE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WED THROUGH SUN...THERE
WILL BE SOME RISK OF PERIODIC SHORT TERM MARGINALLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS IN EASTERN NM...FAVORING WED AND SUN AFTN.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

921 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE RISING ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE INCREASING.
THEREFORE WIND CHILLS MAY NOT FEEL LIKE THEY ARE IMPROVING BUT
THEY ARE RISING ENOUGH TO LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY SUBSIDE SOME LATE. THEREFORE THERE
COULD BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN COUNTRY WHILE THE
WINDS ARE UP. UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS SO FAR ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE
AND LATEST RAP WOULD KEEP IT PRETTY LIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WILL SEE WHAT OTHER 12Z MODELS HAVE IN STORE BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD STAY PRETTY LIGHT AND MAINLY BE
RESTRICTED TO THE FAR NORTHERN VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
MN. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE ELEMENTS COVERED AND WILL SEE IF
ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE ONCE THE SNOW MOVES IN.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE SNOW CHANCES/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INITIAL SYSTEM TODAY
HOWEVER STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES...MAINLY WITH LOW
TRACK...WITH NEXT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. USED AND
BLEND AND PERSISTENCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED -SN WORKING ACROSS SASK AND MODELS HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING AND SNOW POSITION. SNOW SHOULD
SPREAD INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION MID MORNING EXPANDING
ACROSS NW MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT WITH QPF PLACEMENT SO DID NOT NEED TO MAKE MUCH FOR
CHANGES WITH POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS. STILL LOOKING LIKE AN INCH OR
TWO ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM DVL-GFK AND PKD. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE AS CLOUDS ADVANCE...MIXING AND WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES. WIND WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR A FEW HOURS DURING
THE MID DAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH. MODELS
INDICATING 30-40KTS AT 925MB HOWEVER MIXED LAYER SHALLOW AND SHORT
LIVED. STILL WILL SEE A PERIOD OF 20 TO 30KTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. NOT SURE ON POTENTIAL FOR BLSN WITH OLD SNOW HOWEVER LEFT
IN TO BE SAFE.

SNOW SHOULD PRIMARILY BE ACROSS NW INTO WEST CENTRAL MN THIS
EVENING WITH -SN EXITING MOST OF THE FA NOT TOO LONG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER IN THE NIGHT
AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICK
WINDS DIMINISH.

NEXT WAVE WILL START TO AFFECT FA MID/LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
UNTIL THEN NOT MUCH FOR RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM APPROACHES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

MAIN SNOW EVENT WITH THIS NEXT WAVE WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON LOW TRACK BUT OVERALL LOOKS
LIKE SAME AREA TO BE AFFECTED. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES NOT ALL
THAT MUCH HIGHER BUT WITH STRONGER WAVE AND DEEPER SFC LOW SNOW
PRODUCTION SHOULD BE MORE EFFICIENT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE MAY NEED
SOME SORT OF HEADLINES HOWEVER WILL NOT ADDRESS NOW.

SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY MID DAY THURSDAY HOWEVER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES TO THE
SOUTH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY MINIMUMS WILL CONTINUE TO HINGE ON CLOUD
COVER.

LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FORECAST TO BECOME ZONAL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN US AND SOUTHERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO RUN FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF.
WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE THIS PERIOD.

WILL SLOW DOWN PRECIP FOR FRI NIGHT. OTHER CHANGES WERE MINOR.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ON FRI AND SUN AND UP
A DEGREE ON SAT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

-SN WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW FA MID-LATE AM SPREADING SE DURING THE
DAY. DVL-GFK-TVF AND BJI WILL GENERALLY BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF
MAIN SNOW TRACK BUT COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY/CIGS IN
STRONGER SNOW BANDS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECT FROM LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON MAINLY THROUGH THE VALLEY AND ADJACENT
AREAS. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH -SN CONFINED TO
NW MN BY EVENING.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

404 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BITTER COLD AIR OVER THE AREA
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
DUE ON FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEDGE OF CLEARING SPREAD ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME NE OH/NW PA
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ARE SPREADING BACK FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO
BACK THIS AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDENCE THINS OUT THE CLOUDS. FLURRIES
WILL PERSIST MAINLY IN THE SNOWBELT BUT A FLAKE OR TWO POSSIBLE
WHERE THE CLOUDS RETURN. VERY COLD TODAY WITH THE ARCTIC AIR IN
PLACE.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS OPENS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...AND THE POTENTIAL
TO RADIATE DOWN TO SOME REALLY COLD LOW TEMPS. SOME OF THE MODELS
INDICATE A WIND SHIFT TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH A PERSISTENT 4-6
KNOT BREEZE IN WHICH CASE THERE WOULD NOT BE MUCH CHANCE TO DECOUPLE
AND GET REALLY COLD. WILL TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE COLD SIDE
GIVEN THE HISTORY OF THIS AIR MASS BUT WILL NOT FORECAST THE COLDEST
POSSIBLE (WHICH WOULD BE NEGATIVE TEENS) SINCE THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT WE MAY NOT BOTTOM OUT.

WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE EAST COAST STORM SO THE FRONT WILL WASH
OUT. WE WILL NOT REALLY SEE ANY DIRECT IMPACT EXCEPT AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. WITH RIDGING LINGERING BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS...
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL TO GET COLD AT NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND THE LINGERING ARCTIC AND AND DEEP SNOW COVER. THE
FORECAST WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY
AT THE INLAND SPOTS THAT TYPICALLY GET COLD.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY. THE GFS TAKES A STRONGER
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THAN MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS. THERE LIKELY WILL JUST BE A PERIOD OF SNOW/LIGHT SNOW AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY WITH SOME MORNING SUN
POSSIBLE BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE REFINED POPS TO ONLY HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE IN THE SNOWBELT FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH
CHANCES OF SNOW RETURNING TO NW OHIO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE RESULT OF ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. LONG RANGE MODELS DO SHOW
SOME SPREAD WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH THE GEM OFFERING THE BEST
CONSENSUS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THIS WOULD BRING A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO ALL AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN COULD BE ON THE WAY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING TROUGH SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE COUNTRY. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 30S
WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING OVER TO RAIN. THE ECMWF DOES BRING
ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR IN BEHIND THE LOW WHILE THE GFS LOOKS MORE
ZONAL. EVEN THE COLDER ECMWF SUGGESTS THE COLD SNAP COULD BE BRIEF
WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. WILL KEEP SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
IF LAST NIGHT WAS ANY INDICATION OF WHAT MAY OCCUR TONIGHT...MAY
HAVE MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOP TOWARD MORNING FOR EASTERN OH/NW PA.
LATEST HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS SOME NON VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR
THE EAST AND ALSO POSSIBLY FOR MFD OVER TO FDY IN SOME BR/FG. HAVE
CONTINUED OUR FORECAST THAT TRENDED THAT WAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WIN OVER THE REST OF AREA FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MAY REDEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL NON VFR AGAIN SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LAKE ERIE TODAY THEN TO NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY...FINALLY
STARTING TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE BEHIND IT ON FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
THE LOW PASSES NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THEN WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST OR EAST TO NORTHEAST IF THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE.
LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS BETTER SUPPORT TO THE MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM SO TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

1136 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY...THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE AT THIS TIME. STILL
EXPECTING A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
THIS DRIER AIR HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS ACROSS NE
OH. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO COME AND GO OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
IN MANY AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN ABOVE ZERO SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. WILL WAIT FOR 03Z
OBS BEFORE SENDING FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NW PA IN THE
MORNING...BUT THE 850 RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON CUTTING OFF THE SNOW. SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA THIS TIME TOMORROW THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO BEGIN MODERATING. RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN BUT NOT EXPECTING HEAVY SNOW AT THIS TIME BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO SHOVEL. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY
AND THEN A BREAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A CLIPPER FOR LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS BUILDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE RIDGE EAST AND BRINGS
IN ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY. AT THIS TIME LEANED TOWARD THAT
SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH SO FORECASTING RAIN/SNOW.
USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MAY REDEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL NON VFR AGAIN SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
A RIDGE WILL BE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER OVER LAKE ERIE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS COULD GET A LITTLE
STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING...THEY COULD BE BRIEFLY NEAR
GALE FORCE USING THE ECMWF DATA. AT THIS TIME TRENDING TOWARD BEING
BELOW GALE FORCE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE LAKE FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KIELTYKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

709 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY EARLY FRIDAY. A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THINKING AT THIS TIME.
REVISED POPS MOSTLY BASED ON RADAR OBS THIS EVENING...AND SLIGHTLY
BACKED OFF ON EARLIER HOURLY QPF WHICH PROVED TO BE A LITTLE TOO
WET. RATES IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS SEEM TO MAX OUT AT AROUND
0.10-0.13 IN/HR WITH DRAMATICALLY LESS OUTSIDE THE BANDS. WILL
TOUCH UP GRIDS AGAIN SHORTLY AND PROVIDE MORE THOUGHTS THEN.

500 PM UPDATE...SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...NOT HAVING MOVED TOO
MUCH SINCE LAST UPDATE AND NOW BEING CENTERED OVER PANAMA CITY FL.
WARM NOSE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE CWFA...WITH MIXED PTYPES NOW
EVIDENT FROM OBS AND DUAL POL ANALYSIS MORE OR LESS UP TO I-85
CORRIDOR. THERE IS A RELATIVE LULL IN PCPN ACTIVITY IN THE SAME
AREA...APPARENTLY DUE TO WEAKER WARM ADVECTION OVER THE WEDGE AS
NOTED ON 850MB RUC FIELDS. THE GRADIENT AT THIS LEVEL TIGHTENS
AGAIN BY 00Z AND PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN BY THAT TIME.
NOTE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALSO MOVING THRU CENTRAL GA IN OUR
DIRECTION PER RADAR MOSAIC.

WRT PRECIP TYPES...18Z NAM BETTER REFLECTED EXTENT OF WARM NOSE AND
AREA OF SLEET/FZRA...JUDGING BY SPOTTER REPORTS AROUND 4 PM AND
THERMAL FIELDS OBTAINED FROM TOP DOWN TECHNIQUE WITH 18Z NAM AS
INPUT. THE RESULT IS FOR A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FZRA THRU THE EVENING
UP TO THE METRO AREAS ALONG I-85 WHICH LATER CHANGES BACK TO SNOW AS
THE SFC LOW PASSES.

AS OF 245 PM...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW A WELL
DEFINED COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE
GA...SOURCED FROM 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FL...LOWERING TO
1009 MB. RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE ANOTHER COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WEST TO AL. 12Z NAM INDICATES THAT STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
UPSLOPE FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLVL JET...WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6Z. THE LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH A POOL OF HIGH
PW...SHOWN ON THE BLENDED PW...SUPPORTING A SHIELD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL BANDS OF
-EPV WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING
THE FORMATION OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS. A LARGE FIELD OF MID LEVEL
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAKING 12Z
THURS. THE OVERLAP OF LLVL AND MID LEVEL FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
THE GREATEST SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A VERY INTERESTING
DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND 18Z THURS...PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL HALF
INCH TO INCH OF QPF. THE MESOSCALE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS
FEATURE. I WILL NOD TO THE SPECTRAL MODELS AND CONTINUE POPS WELL
INTO THURS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LESSER QPF. OVERALL...ADDITIONAL QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.9 ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR TO
AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY.

PRECIP TYPE IS COMPLICATED BY SUSPECT ABSENCE OF ICE NUCLEI THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE GFS AND NAM. GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS
MOISTURE AND OVERALL COLD LLVL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS...I BELIEVE THAT ICE NUCLEI WILL BE PRESENT.
HOWEVER...DOPPLER VELOCITY AND DUAL POL AGREE WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WITH DEVELOPING AN H85 WARM NOSE OVER THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT. THE WARMING ALONG THE EASTERN TIER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...YIELDING A BLEND OF SLEET AND FZRA.

EVENTUALLY...DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS WILL DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY...AIDING DRYING FROM SW TO NE. POPS WILL DECREASE WITHIN
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...HOLDING ON THE LONGEST ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR.

THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS ON TRACK. I WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST
ACCUMS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OVERLAP OF DEEP MOISTURE...SYNOPTIC
FORCING...AND POTENTIAL BANDING.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM...UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT THU NITE AS THE STRONG UPPER
LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. A RELATIVELY STRONG CLIPPER TYPE SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA SAT NITE.
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AGAIN ON SAT. AT THE SFC...EXPECT DRY BUT COLD
WX THU NITE...BUT PRECIP TO RETURN LATE FRI AS MOISTURE AND THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. THIS
PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRI EVENING THEN DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. THE BEST PRECIP CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE WLY
UPSLOPE FLOW EXISTS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND FORCING LOOK DEEP ENUF
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. TEMPS FALL ACROSS THE MTNS AS CAA KICKS IN LATE FRI INTO FRI
NITE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANGE TO SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS COULD
APPROACH ADV LEVEL FRI NITE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS ATTM. COULD BE SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS SAT MORNING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS NEAR THE TN BORDER...
BUT THOSE WOULD END QUICKLY BEFORE NOON. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED.

HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD FOR EACH PERIOD. HAVE
GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LINGERING SNOW AND ICE ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EST WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER HEALTHY LOOKING H5 SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE FCST AREA WHILE A FAIRLY STEEP UPPER RIDGE MAINTAINS
ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS LATER ON SUNDAY WITH HEIGHTS RECOVERING A BIT ON MONDAY.
BEYOND THIS POINT...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE WRT THE
PROGRESSION/APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE NEWER 12Z RUN
OF THE GFS HAS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS JUST TO OUR NORTH BY LATE
MON/EARLY TUES WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 24 HRS SLOWER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE FEATURE. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT AFTER THE 2ND
SHORTWAVE PASSES...THE PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN OUT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF WEAK MESO
LOW JUST TO OUR WEST BY THE START OF THE FCST PERIOD. THIS FEATURE
COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BUT
SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IF ANY. THE FEATURE DISSIPATES QUICKLY AND
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS BACK OVER THE REGION AND REMAINS THRU AT
LEAST MONDAY. THE GFS HAS THE NEXT FRONT MOVING THRU LATE MON/EARLY
TUES BUT THE ECMWF FROPA IS ABOUT 24 HRS LATER. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR THE
SENSIBLE FCST...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FCST WITH MOSTLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUN OVER PORTIONS OF NW HALF OF THE CWFA AND
SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE
STRONGER...MORE MOIST COLD FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPS SHOULD STEADILY
WARM THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY DAYS 6
AND 7.

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE FIELD IS NOW IN THE ZONE OF PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM NOSE OVER COLD WEDGE AT THE SFC...AND PER
LATEST AVBL NAM THERMAL PROFILES IT WILL REMAIN IN THIS ZONE MUCH OF
TONIGHT. PL MAY CHANGE OVER TO FZRA FOR A TIME LATER BEFORE
BEGINNING A SLOW TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW BEFORE DAYBREAK. PRECIP
WILL LIKELY REMAIN PERIODIC AS BANDS MOVE OVERHEAD. A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF ICE ACCRETION ARE EXPECTED. CIGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO
IFR AGAIN AS LLVL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES LATER THIS EVENING WITH
CONTINUING PRECIP UNLIKELY TO LEAD TO MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK. SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A SECONDARY WAVE OF
PRECIP DEVELOPING AFTER DAYBREAK AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY...BUT
THIS IS STILL NOT AGREED UPON BY ALL MEMBERS. THUS PROB30 FOR
PRECIP...RAIN PER SFC TEMPS AT THAT TIME BUT CAPABLE OF KEEPING IFR
CIGS THRU THE AFTN. IF THIS PRECIP DOES NOT DEVELOP THEN CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR.

ELSEWHERE...BANDS OF MODT TO AT TIMES HEAVY PRECIP...WITH LIFR
CIGS/VSBY...LOOK MOST LIKELY THIS EVENING OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
WRN PIEDMONT INCLUDING KAVL/KHKY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT PRECIP WILL
MAINLY BRING IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING WITH CIGS LATER
LOWERING TO IFR. PRECIP TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW NORTH OF THE I-85
CORRIDOR...SOUTH OF WHICH MOSTLY -FZRA IS EXPECTED. A NARROW
TRANSITION ZONE OF PL IS LIKELY TO REMAIN WITH PERHAPS KGSP/KGMU
GOING BACK AND FORTH. TOWARD DAYBREAK COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WRAP
BACK AROUND THE SFC LOW AND ALL PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO -SN
BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF.

OUTLOOK...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING...AND
MAY BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS/PRECIP TO KAVL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z
KCLT HIGH 90% HIGH 85% HIGH 88% HIGH 84%
KGSP HIGH 92% MED 76% LOW 59% HIGH 84%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 92% MED 68% HIGH 90%
KHKY HIGH 84% MED 75% MED 73% HIGH 84%
KGMU HIGH 92% MED 76% LOW 51% HIGH 83%
KAND HIGH 85% HIGH 80% MED 64% HIGH 87%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.CLIMATE...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR WEDNESDAY FEB 12TH...

AVL...2.8 IN 2010
CLT...5.1 IN 1899
GSP...5.0 IN 1895

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ010-017-
018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-
035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ001>014-
019.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

1006 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

.UPDATE...

APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL INTENSITY IS DECREASING OVER THE MIDSTATE.
STILL EXPECTED TO SNOW IN THE EXTREME EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER MOST OF THIS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
THAN WHAT HAS BEEN FALLING SO FAR TONIGHT. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA THIS EVENING. WILL
BE LETTING THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AS PLANNED FOR NOW HOWEVER EVEN
AFTER THE ADVISORY EXPIRES ROAD CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN HAZARDOUS
UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING WHEN WE CAN RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THE ONLY
UPDATE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WAS AN ADJUSTMENT OF THE LOW
TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. BLACK
ICE HAS BEEN AN ISSUE IN A COUPLE OF PLACES ALREADY
TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT ANY WET ROADS IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
MOSTLY RAIN TODAY TO BECOME ICY AS MORE OF THE MID-STATE DROPS
BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION INTERESTS

AVIATION...EVEN THOUGH PRECIP ONLY A FEW MILES SOUTH OF AIRPORT
HAVE REMOVED PRECIP FROM NASHVILLE TERMINAL WITH VFR CONDITION
EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. RADAR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW EROSION ON
NORTHERN FRINGE AND LATEST RUC RUN HAS DRIER AIR FILTERING IN OVER
NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE. STILL LOOKING FOR A GOOD SNOW
SOUTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UP ALONG PLATEAU...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
HALF OF PLATEAU. 700 MBAR LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
CHATTANOOGA WILL BE A SLOW MOVER NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS. THIS COULD
KEEP SNOW ON-GOING SOUTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG PLATEAU
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAP UPDATE NOW HAS SNOW PULLING OFF THE
PLATEAU AROUND 12Z. LARGEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE ACROSS
GRUNDY...VAN BUREN INTO CUMBERLAND COUNTY.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-
032>034-065-066-077>080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TNZ061>064-075-093>095.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

753 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION INTERESTS

.AVIATION...EVEN THOUGH PRECIP ONLY A FEW MILES SOUTH OF AIRPORT
HAVE REMOVED PRECIP FROM NASHVILLE TERMINAL WITH VFR CONDITION
EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. RADAR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW EROISON ON
NORTHERN FRINGE AND LATEST RUC RUN HAS DRIER AIR FILTERING IN OVER
NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE. STILL LOOKING FOR A GOOD SNOW
SOUTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UP ALONG PLATEAU...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
HALF OF PLATEAU. 700 MBAR LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
CHATTANOOGA WILL BE A SLOW MOVER NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS. THIS COULD
KEEP SNOW ON-GOING SOUTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG PLATEAU
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAP UPDATE NOW HAS SNOW PULLING OFF THE
PLATEAU AROUND 12Z. LARGEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE ACROSS
GRUNDY...VAN BUREN INTO CUMBERLAND COUNTY.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-
032>034-065-066-077>080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TNZ061>064-075-093>095.

$$
BOYD
01

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

558 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

.AVIATION...
...POOR FLYING CONDITIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF NASHVILLE...

SURFACE LOW CENTERED AT 23Z JUST SOUTH OF TALLAHASSE FLORIDA AND
HAS BEEN CRAWLING ALONG THE GULF COAST LAST SEVERAL HOURS IN WAIT
OF KICKER CURRENTLY BACK OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. SHARP MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI...ARKANSAS INTO
SOUTWEST MISSISSIPPI BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF NEGATIVE TILT ON
SOUTH END. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH
EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND IN RUC VORTICITY FIELD WILL
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT AND THIS WILL ACT
TO KICK LOW NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA TO ALONG SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST BY 06Z TONIGHT. PRECIP IS GOING TO BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO
END OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AND PLATEAU DUE TO PROXIMITY
OF UPPER LOW. I`VE TIMED PRECIP WILL EXIT PLATEAU AROUND 08Z-09Z BUT IT
COULD BE A LITTLE LATER. FOGGY (SOME DENSE) ALONG PLATEAU EVEN
AFTER SNOW ENDS.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-
032>034-065-066-077>080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TNZ061>064-075-093>095.

$$
BOYD
01

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

1106 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

.UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING ALONG THE
TENNESSEE`S SOUTHERN BORDER. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING EAST ALONG THE STATE LINE. THE HIGHEST
REFLECTIVITIES ARE CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN ALABAMA...JUST SOUTH OF
THE TN STATE LINE AS EARLIER FORECASTS SUGGESTED. FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO REMAIN IN WAYNE, LAWRENCE, AND GILES
COUNTIES...WHERE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. HRRR
CONTINUES TO STAND ALONE AND INDICATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
EXTENDING SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS HRRR RUNS WERE SHOWING QUITE A BIT MORE
MOISTURE...BUT HAVE SINCE BACKED OFF. THE ONLY CHANGE TO TONIGHT`S
WX WILL BE THE ADDITION OF FLURRIES FROM THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
NORTH TO I-40 AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE EVENT THAT THE PRECIP
HOVERING OVER THE MS/TN BORDER HOLDS TOGETHER WHILE IT MOVES ENE.
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED NOT
FORECASTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH SNOW NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES. ALSO LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS
RECENT OBS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
AM FORECASTING VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. INVERTED
TROUGH DOWN ALONG GULF COAST IN A GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SPREAD
PRECIP NORTHWARD THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. 15Z SREF RUN THE ONLY MODEL BRINGING IT INTO SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. EVEN THE LATEST H-TRIPLE-R RUN HAS BACKED OFF.
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST SREF RUN.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1226 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST NAM12 AND RUC13 TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FORECASTS
SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN A COLD RAIN FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SLEET
SHOWER AS SOME ENHANCED ECHOES MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT STILL EXPECT RAIN AS THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR... MOST LOCATIONS ARE
ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER A FEW SPOTS ARE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
AND WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS...SUSPECT THE TEMPERATURE COULD
QUICKLY DROP TO FREEZING IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. FOR
NOW... WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE I-35
CORRIDOR NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO. ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU... WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AS OF NOON.
ICING HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL AND THERE HAVE
ALSO BEEN SEVERAL AUTO ACCIDENTS. WE/LL LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTACT
HERE AS WELL AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF -RADZ...WITH -FZDZ/-FZRA/IP WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING NORTH OF A KDRT TO KBAZ TO KGYB LINE...WILL SLOWLY END
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
VSBYS IMPROVE TO VFR AS PRECIP MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. CIGS WILL
ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING VFR. NLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH RUC13 AND NAM12 DATA SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS...
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ROCKSPRINGS...KERRVILLE AND
FREDERICKSBURG. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THIS
REGION... WE HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SITES
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE AREA TERMINALS.
THERE IS A WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN ACROSS KAUS...KSAT AND
KSSF BETWEEN 12Z/16Z AS FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAIN. VSBYS WILL
INCREASE TO VFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT MVFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN
OVERRUNNING PATTERN KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES TO THE EAST WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACROSS KDRT...IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
FOR FEW HOURS (13Z/16Z) BEFORE MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN. CLEAR SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS WARRANTED FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF HWY 90. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT
WITH EXPECTATIONS FOR THE HILL COUNTRY...SHOWING A RELUCTANCE TO
SPREAD SOUTH OF THE ESCARPMENT. FARTHER EAST...THE RECENT
EXPANSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS SHOWS LESS CERTAINTY.
NEARLY ALL THE ADVY AREA IS NOW EITHER BELOW FREEZING OR WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF FREEZING SAVE FOR DEL RIO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THE PRIMARY TYPE HAS BEEN DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WAS EXPECTED UP TO THIS POINT. THE LIGHT AND
SCARCELY REPORTED PRECIP EAST OF I-35 WAS ONE REASON TO EXTEND THE
AREA EAST SINCE THE LACK OF FALLING MOISTURE HAD ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL STEADILY. THE OTHER REASON IS THAT MODEL DATA
AND THE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASING TREND TOWARD SOME
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE MORNING UPDATE INTRODUCES SLEET AS A
PRECIP TYPE TO ACCOUNT FOR A DEEPENING COLD LAYER SEEN IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. GFS DPROG-DT TRENDS LOOK TO BE
CATCHING UP WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
SHALLOW UPSTREAM TROUGH THAT WILL PASS ACROSS TX LATE TODAY. AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT IT
DESERVES MENTION THAT SPC HAS A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA
EXTENDING FROM EAST TX WEST TO NEAR A BURNET TO CUERO LINE. THE
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SLEET SHOWERS IS ENOUGH REASON TO MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT VALID TIME RUNNING THROUGH 00Z...ALTHOUGH WESTERN
PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO BE CLEARED BY
MIDDAY. TOTAL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD RANGE FROM A TRACE
ACROSS SW COUNTIES TO AS MUCH AS 2/10 INCH OVER CENTRAL TX...WITH
MOST NON-SLEET ICING AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 1/10 INCH.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS CLEAR FAST WITH SUBSIDENCE REPLACING THE
PASSING TROUGH...AND NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AFTER 9 PM. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM THE SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT NE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD
LEAVE POCKETS OF CLOUDINESS OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. THUS WILL AVOID CHASING THE STEADY COOLING TREND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF GUIDANCES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD OFFSET THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A PATTERN CHANGE
THAT SHOWS LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET LEAVES TX IN A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SPECIFIC WEATHER
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD ARE VAGUE DUE TO A SMOOTH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 36 31 58 35 68 / 60 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 35 27 57 28 67 / 60 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 36 28 57 30 67 / 50 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 34 26 57 31 67 / 60 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 43 29 65 37 74 / 20 - 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 34 27 56 31 67 / 70 10 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 40 27 64 32 72 / 40 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 36 27 57 29 66 / 60 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 37 31 54 33 64 / 70 20 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 37 30 62 36 70 / 50 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 38 29 61 34 71 / 50 10 0 0 0

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...EDWARDS...
GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO...REAL...TRAVIS...VAL
VERDE...WILLIAMSON.

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1145 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF -RADZ...WITH -FZDZ/-FZRA/IP WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING NORTH OF A KDRT TO KBAZ TO KGYB LINE...WILL SLOWLY END
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
VSBYS IMPROVE TO VFR AS PRECIP MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. CIGS WILL
ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING VFR. NLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LEE...LLANO...REAL...TRAVIS...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON.

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS FORT WORTH TX

1140 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...FREEZING PRECIPITATION AND MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.
FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT AT KACT.

PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION AND BEGINNING TO
IMPACT THE AIRPORTS. EXPECT A COMBINATION OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND SLEET TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 2-3
PM IN THE METROPLEX. AT THAT TIME...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
COME TO AN END BUT SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
6 PM. ALSO...AROUND 3 PM...TEMPERATURES IN THE METROPLEX WILL
REACH NEAR FREEZING AND WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO LIQUID PRECIP
AND/OR SLEET. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY 6 PM. MAY SEE A
FEW SNOW FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AT WACO...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A RAIN/SLEET MIX.
PRECIP SHOULD ALSO END BY 5/6 PM. ALSO AT WACO...MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT.

82/JLD

.UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET/SNOW CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
MOISTEN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY WARM
TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN NEARLY ALL COUNTIES. WE STILL
EXPECT IMPACTS FROM THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE...CLEBURNE...DFW TO BONHAM LINE WHERE MOST
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 20S.

THE ONLY AREAS THAT WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MILAM...ROBERTSON...LEON AND ANDERSON
COUNTIES. THEREFORE...WE HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE ADVISORY IN
THESE LOCATIONS. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LIGHT RAIN MAY
MIX WITH SLEET IN THESE COUNTIES AS THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER...NO
TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM ICE ARE EXPECTED.

TRAVEL MAY CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AFTER SUNSET ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND RESIDUAL
WATER FREEZES.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE
METROPLEX WHILE SOME LIGHT BANDS OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM
THE BIG COUNTRY SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FREEZING LINE AS
OF 3 AM EXTENDED FROM PARIS TO CORSICANA TO GEORGETOWN.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE HAS ENTERED SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AND EXTRA ASCENT PROVIDED
BY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AMOUNTS ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY BUT WITH
FREEZING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S THERE WILL BE
IMPACTS. THUS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6 PM. THE 06Z HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A WSW TO ENE ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER BAND DEVELOPING
JUST TO ITS SOUTH. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SO FAR HAS BEEN
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE...HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS
CLOSER...THE WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL GET THINNER AND THE TEXAS TECH
WRF INDICATES THAT THE WARM NOSE WILL BE ALMOST GONE LATE
AFTERNOON AT DFW. HAVE INDICATED FREEZING RAIN WITH A CHANCE SLEET
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY...WITH RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND CHANCE OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE RED
RIVER.

AFTER THIS EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A COLD START TOMORROW MORNING WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND WE WILL
SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER WIND SHIFT
BUT NOT MUCH COLDER AIR. 58

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 33 26 47 31 60 / 50 10 0 0 0
WACO, TX 34 25 50 29 62 / 60 20 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 33 23 46 29 57 / 40 20 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 32 23 47 28 60 / 50 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 33 24 46 28 58 / 50 20 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 34 27 47 32 60 / 50 20 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 33 24 46 30 58 / 50 20 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 34 26 47 32 59 / 60 20 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 34 27 51 31 63 / 60 20 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 31 23 49 29 64 / 50 10 0 0 0

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

82/79

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1006 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH RUC13 AND NAM12 DATA SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS...
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ROCKSPRINGS...KERRVILLE AND
FREDERICKSBURG. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THIS
REGION... WE HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014/

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS FORT WORTH TX

526 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.AVIATION...

CONCERNS...TIMING AND DURATION OF WINTRY PRECIP.

THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX TERMINALS
AND CIGS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 4000 FEET. EXPECT BATCHES OF
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OFF AND ON DURING THE DAY AFTER 14Z WITH CIGS
RETURNING TO MVFR DURING PRECIP. AS FOR KACT...CURRENT MVFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY INCREASE TO AROUND 3500 FEET AS WELL. SOME 88D ECHOES
TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS KACT AFTER 14Z WITH
ADDITIONAL BATCHES OF -FZRAPL DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ALL PRECIP WILL END WEST TO END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH VFR
CIGS AROUND 4000 FEET PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. WILL ADD 4SM BR FOR
KACT 05-11Z AS TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD REMAINS SMALL. 75

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 33 26 47 31 60 / 60 10 0 0 0
WACO, TX 34 25 50 29 62 / 60 20 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 33 23 46 29 57 / 50 20 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 32 23 47 28 60 / 60 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 33 24 46 28 58 / 60 20 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 34 27 47 32 60 / 60 20 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 33 24 46 30 58 / 60 20 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 34 26 47 32 59 / 60 20 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 34 27 51 31 63 / 60 20 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 31 23 49 29 64 / 60 10 0 0 0

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

75/

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

409 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE
METROPLEX WHILE SOME LIGHT BANDS OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM
THE BIG COUNTRY SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FREEZING LINE AS
OF 3 AM EXTENDED FROM PARIS TO CORSICANA TO GEORGETOWN.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE HAS ENTERED SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH CONTINUED
INSENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AND EXTRA ASCENT PROVIDED
BY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AMOUNTS ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY BUT WITH
FREEZING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S THERE WILL BE
IMPACTS. THUS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6 PM. THE 06Z HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A WSW TO ENE ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER BAND DEVELOPING
JUST TO ITS SOUTH. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SO FAR HAS BEEN
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE...HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS
CLOSER...THE WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL GET THINNER AND THE TEXAS TECH
WRF INDICATES THAT THE WARM NOSE WILL BE ALMOST GONE LATE
AFTERNOON AT DFW. HAVE INDICATED FREEZING RAIN WITH A CHANCE SLEET
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY...WITH RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND CHANCE OF SLEET/SNOW ALONG THE RED
RIVER.

AFTER THIS EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A COLD START TOMORROW MORNING WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND WE WILL
SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY BUT HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE 60S
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL BE INTHE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER WIND SHIFT
BUT NOT MUCH COLDER AIR.

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

75/58

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

1256 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN OFFSHORE
STORM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY FRIGID WEATHER
PREVAILS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STORM-
SYSTEM IS POISED FOR THE EARLY- TO MID-WEEK PERIOD.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1245 AM UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW ENCROACHING ON NYC AND BASED ON THE HRRR IT STILL
APPEARS SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CT TO THE S COAST
AROUND 09Z REACHING THE MASS PIKE AROUND 12Z. COULD SEE UP TO AN
INCH ACCUM BY 7 AM NEAR THE SOUTH COAST AND PORTIONS OF N CT.

BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE
APPROACHING THE S COAST AROUND 12Z.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

CONSIDERING AN ANOMALOUS LOW PRES CENTER 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
FEEL THAT WIND AND WIND GUSTS ARE NOT APPROPRIATELY MODELED.
CONSIDERING 40-50 KT E/NE FLOW ROUGHLY 1500 FT AGL AND CONSULTING
WIND ADV / HIGH WIND WARNING CLIMATOLOGY...FEEL THAT DESPITE THE
STOUT INVERSION AT THE SURFACE...THAT PRECIP DRAG PROCESSES AND
SUCH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST WIND ADV CRITERIA
/31-39 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH 46-57 MPH GUSTS/ FOR ALL SHORELINE
COMMUNITIES. WHETHER THIS NEEDS TO BE UPGRADED AND/OR EXPANDED IN
AREA I WILL LEAVE FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO CONSIDER.

OTHERWISE I LEAVE THIS FOR THINKING FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT AND ALL
OTHERS READING THIS DISCUSSION...

HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR WRAPPING INTO THE LOW ITSELF OVER COLDER
OCEAN AND SNOW PACK IS LIKELY TO YIELD AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
EXPECTING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF-MILE DESPITE THE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS. EXPECTING A SOUP AS AN ABUNDANCE OF WARM-MOISTURE
WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE APPENDED THE WEATHER GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY FOR AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

IN ADDITION FOR AREAS WHICH WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN...
ANOMALOUS PWATS AND THE EXPECTATION OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES OF PRECIP
MAINLY FOR THE S/SE COASTAL PLAINS LEADS TO SOME CONCERN OF
NUISANCE FLOODING WITH DRAINS CLOGGED WITH SNOW...AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL ROOF COLLAPSES AS THE WEIGHT OF WATER AND SNOW WILL BE
AN ISSUE. AREAS IMPACTING STILL HAVE SNOWPACKS AROUND 6-INCHES AT
PRESENT. DURING THE STORM TRANSITION AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORT-TERM FLOOD HEADLINES MAY BE WARRANTED.

AS A FINAL NOTE...LOOK AT CIPS ANALOGS AND EVALUATE THOSE WHICH
ARE ALSO ENSO-NEUTRAL. WHILE THERE IS SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY
ON THE EXACT OUTCOMES OF THE STORM...THE OVERALL MEAN OF THREATS
GIVE SOME IDEA OF WHAT OUTCOMES THE NE CONUS SHOULD PREPARE FOR
AND ANTICIPATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST SPREADING DEEP LIFT AND MOISTURE
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...WHILE LOW AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE FAVORABLE OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVOR SNOW IN ALL AREAS INITIALLY...BUT WITH
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE MORNING AND
CHANGING THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WARMER AIR MAY SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST CT AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL MASS...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE ON THIS DUE TO THE
SNOWCOVER AND ITS COOLING INFLUENCE NEAR THE SURFACE. THE WARM
TEMPS ALOFT AND COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WESTERN
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY AS SNOW. WITH STRONG LIFT IN THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...PERIODS OF INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY JUST
NORTH/WEST OF THE CHANGEOVER LINE.

MODELS SIGNAL A WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TAKES PLACE JUST AS THE
SURFACE LOW PASSES...OVER OR NEAR CAPE COD...AND WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST DRAWING COLD AIR BACK ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA. THIS
WILL GENERATE FRONTOGENTIC FORCING AND LIFT AS ANY RAIN OR ICE
CHANGES BACK TO SNOW. WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASS AND SOUTHERN NH ARE
MOST AT RISK FOR HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS.

EXPECTED SNOWFALL RANGES FROM 14-18 INCHES IN THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES AND THE WORCESTER-MONADNOCK HILLS TO 1-2 INCHES ON
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. COULD BE A FEW SPOTS IN THE BERKSHIRE ZONES
THAT HAVE 18-24 INCHES. WE ARE EXPECTING A SHARP GRADIENT OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION JUST INLAND OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 0.25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN CT AND CENTRAL MASS.

THE LOW LEVEL JET PULLED NORTH BY THE STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN MASS/RI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT. THE MOST
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD. BUT LAPSE
RATES APPROACHING MOIST ADIABATIC ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
THE 50 MPH WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IN RAIN. THE GREATEST RISK
WILL BE ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND ACROSS CAPE ANN IN NORTHEAST
MASS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
- LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL WITH OFFSHORE STORM FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
- INITIALLY WINDY...COLD/DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED AROUND EARLY- TO MID-WEEK
- A WARMING TREND TOWARDS LATE FEBRUARY?

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

CONTINUED TROUGHING AMPLIFIED BY INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AROUND SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC SURGE
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH VARIABILITY WITHIN MODEL
OUTPUT CONCERNING THE SATURDAY STORM...SOME IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

A NON-ECMWF CONSENSUS BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED OVER THE
WEEKEND. FEEL THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR ACROSS A DEEP SNOW PACK LEFT
BEHIND BY THE THURSDAY STORM SHOULD SHUNT THE BETTER BAROCLINIC
ZONE SOUTH AND EAST. IN ADDITION THE BETTER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND
DYNAMICS ARE EAST AND CLOSER TO NOVA SCOTIA. THEREFORE HAVE
GREATER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS A REGENERATIVE AREA OF LOW PRES WELL-
OFFSHORE OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THERE IS SOME HOPE OF A PATTERN SHIFT PER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TOWARDS
LATE FEBRUARY AS +AO/+NAO TREND IS PREFERRED INDICATING A LOCK-UP OF
COLDER AIR ACROSS THE POLES AND A PROGRESSIVE STORM PATTERN. DAY-8
CANADIAN COMPOSITE SHOWS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NE CONUS
WITH ENHANCED RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WHETHER THIS COMES
TO FRUITION WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

FOR NEXT WEEK...A CONSENSUS BLEND IS PREFERRED BUT CAUTION IS
EXERCISED BY THE FACT THAT DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS EXHIBIT
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES WITH AN ANTICIPATED EARLY- TO MID-WEEK
DISTURBANCE. PER ENSEMBLE TRENDS OUTLINED ABOVE...A WARMER TREND
INTO THE LATE-WEEK IS PREFERRED.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

DEPARTING STORM BECOMING STACKED AS IT UNDERGOES OCCLUSION CUTTING
OFF FROM BETTER MOISTURE /DYING-PHASE/. DRIER AIR WRAPS IN AND ANY
AND ALL PRECIP SHOULD CONCLUDE THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATING SNOW TO
LINGER N/W WITHIN THE COMMA-HEAD OF THE DEPARTING STORM. FOCUS OF
SNOW WITH W/NW FLOW LIKELY ALONG W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
SOME MID-LEVEL FORCING LINGERS ALBEIT QUICKLY DIMINISHING.

MAIN CONCERN IS WINDS. DEEP CENTRAL PRESSURE OFFSHORE...STRONG
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE...GUSTY WEST WINDS AROUND 40 MPH 2 KFT AGL.
WHETHER WIND HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED REMAINS TO BE
SEEN. GREATEST THREAT WILL BE N/E /ESP CAPE ANN AND EASTERN CAPE/.
STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO H9 SHOULD EASILY ALLOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TO THE SURFACE.

AT LEAST GALES OVER THE WATERS. WITH RECENT SNOWS...FEEL IT WILL BE
COLDER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS /ESP NORTH AND WEST/. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS /ESP OVERNIGHT/ BY A FEW DEGREES.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...

SECOND SET OF PACIFIC WAVES AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH REGIME ACROSS THE
NE CONUS INVOKING AN AREA OF LOW PRES OFFSHORE OF SNE. SOME QUESTION
AS TO ITS PROXIMITY. PER GFS/UKMET...ITS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO
REMAIN WELL S/E OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK RESULTING IN MINIMAL
IMPACT. BROADSCALE MODEL AGREEMENT /EVEN THE ECMWF/ KEEPING THE BEST
ASCENT AND DYNAMICS EAST. WITH RECENT SNOWS AND EXPECTATION OF
COLDER CONDITION OVER SNE...REGION OF BETTER BAROCLINICITY SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN WELL-OFFSHORE WITH N/NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE
INTERIOR.

N/NW WINDS REARWARD MAY CHURN UP SOME OCEAN-EFFECT PROCESSES...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND UNIFORM
WIND PROFILE. SHOULD SEE STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO H8 AND A DECENT
TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE OCEAN AND H85.

SO OVERALL...NOT CONFIDENT ON SIGNIFICANT SNOW OUTCOMES. SOME LIGHT
SNOW APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FOR AREAS S/E...BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT FEEL
CONFIDENT CONCERNING ANY HEADLINES. MAJORITY OF HEAVY SNOW / SNOW-
BANDING REMAINS EAST AND OFFSHORE. COULD SEE SOME MIXING WITH RAIN
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE WINDS ARE OF CONCERN. BOMBING LOW TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA...
BY LATE SATURDAY WILL INVOKE STRONG W/NW FLOW. AROUND 40 MPH WEST
WINDS 2 KFT AGL POSSIBLE BY EVENING. MIXING MAY PRECLUDE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT NOT SO MUCH THE CASE NEAR THE WATERS. WIND HEADLINES
MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

WILL SEE BRISK W/NW WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING MATURING LOW WELL
EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. WIND HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH 40-50 MPH W/NW WINDS 2 KFT
AGL /ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE WATERS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO
H9/. AT LEAST GALES OVER THE WATERS WITH THE THREAT OF FREEZING
SPRAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY HAS TO HOW EFFECTIVELY WINDS MIX-DOWN.

WINDS DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BY LATE OF WHICH AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SURGANCE OF COLDER AIR INTO THE NE CONUS.
HIGH PRES FILTERS IN THEREAFTER BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER.

NEXT WEEK...

NO CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER STORM IS ANTICIPATED TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF WHICH REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
THOUGH A QUICK COLD SHOT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE STORM...A WARMER-
TREND IS PREFERRED INTO THE LATER-HALF OF FEBRUARY.

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR-LIFR 10-14Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH LOW CONDITIONS PERSISTING
THROUGH TONIGHT. BAND OF HEAVY SNOW LIKELY LIFTING NORTH FROM
THE S COAST AROUND 12Z. TRANSITION TO RAIN EXPECTED ACK BY 13Z
REACHING PVD-BOS AROUND 18Z WITH SNOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST. AS
WARMER MOVES IN ALOFT...TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FZRA EXPECTED TO
REACH INLAND TO BDL-ORH-MHT THIS EVENING. PRECIP MAY LIGHTEN UP
THIS EVENING FOR A TIME AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN...BUT EXPANSION OF
PRECIP EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR WINDS...STRONG EAST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS FOR
SOUTH-SHORELINE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE THOSE WINDS
MIGRATE NORTHWARD IMPACTING EAST COAST TERMINALS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH MAIN FOCUS ACROSS NE MA TONIGHT. LLWS EXPECTED ASSOCD
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF PRECIP
TRANSITION. IFR/LIFR

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR WITH -SN IMPROVING VFR LATE IN THE DAY. BLUSTERY W/NW FLOW
STRONGEST FOR SHORELINE TERMINALS 30-35 KTS /UP TO 40 KTS FOR ACK/.
POSSIBLE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 30-40 KT WEST FLOW 2 KFT AGL.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RETURN MVFR-IFR WITH -SN ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE STORM MIXING WITH -RA
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS. N/NW WINDS BACKING W/NW AND INCREASING LATE 25-30
KTS WITH LLWS IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS AROUND 30 KTS FOR E/SE SHORE
OVERNIGHT...LESSENING INTO SUNDAY. LLWS IMPACTS CONTINUE FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD.

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

7 PM UPDATE...

WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR
STORM-FORCE. GALE WARNINGS IN PLACE BUT MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS. VALUES ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS/5 FEET BY MORNING.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS ON THE
SOUTH COAST BY AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY.
WINDS AT 2000 FEET ABOVE THE WATERS WILL REACH 50-55 KNOTS...AND
SOME OF THIS MAY BE DRAGGED TO THE OCEAN SURFACE IN FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS DURING PRECIPITATION. SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
DAY... REACHING 10-15 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY AFTERNOON AND
15 TO 18 FEET ON THE EASTERN WATERS BY EVENING.

WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS
AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GALE WARNING
CONTINUES FOR THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BLUSTERY W/NW FLOW AROUND 35 KTS INITIALLY. GALES LIKELY...AND THE
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CONTINUED INTO THIS PERIOD. MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER STORMS. GREATEST SEAS SE 12 TO 17 FEET. BOTH WIND AND
WAVES BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARDS LATE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIND AND WAVE ACTION DIMINISHING THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.
WEST WINDS 25-30 KTS EARLY. N/NW WINDS BY MIDDAY BACKING W/NW AND
INCREASING LATE 25-30 KTS BY EVENING. SEAS BEGINNING TO BUILD AGAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS AROUND 30 KTS SATURDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SEAS BUILDING AROUND 8 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS /MORESO SOUTH AND EAST/. COMBINATION OF WINDS AND
COLDER AIR SURGING OVER THE WATERS PRESENTS THE THREAT OF FREEZING
SPRAY MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES SHOULD PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOOD RISK WITH THE THU/THU NIGHT STORM. NONETHELESS...WE BELIEVE
THAT A 2 TO 2.5 FT SURGE WITH WAVES 15 TO 20 FT JUST OFFSHORE MAY
OCCUR AND THAT WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AND SOME EROSION FROM SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN AND HULL TO PLYMOUTH
ALONG E COASTAL MA FOR THE LATE THU EVENING HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE TWO REACHES OF COASTLINE BUT
STILL ENOUGH TIME TO ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO REASSESS BEFORE
RELEASING ANY PRODUCT. IN PARTICULAR...THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE...GENERALLY 1030 TO 11 PM EST...LOOKS TO BE
POINTED TOWARD IPSWICH BAY...TAKING A CONSENSUS OF MODELS.
THUS...THE SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN SHORELINE STRETCH IS THE REGION
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO AN EROSION IMPACT. ETSS AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER BUT RAISED VALUES GENERALLY .5
TO .8 FT ALONG E COASTAL MA BASED ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN RECOGNITION
AND PAST EXPERIENCE WITH THE SURGE GUIDANCE.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR MAZ002>006-008>014-026.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR MAZ020>024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR MAZ007-015>021.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR MAZ007-014>016-019.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR RIZ001-003-006.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR RIZ007-008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR RIZ002-004-005-007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ231>235-237-250-251.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ236.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ254>256.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

411 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY. WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF A PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH OF THE FREEZING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET HAS SHIFTED
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ARE OCCURRING IN IT WAKE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
BECOMING DEEPER AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS MORNING.
THIS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART. BELIEVE THE SNOW
THAT WAS IN PARTS OF ALABAMA AND NORTH GEORGIA WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE NAM TIME- HEIGHT DISPLAYS SHOW MOISTURE GETTING
INTO THE SNOW-GROWTH ZONE AS THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA. THE HRRR SHOWS H85 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO BELOW FREEZING
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING. USED THIS GUIDANCE FOR THE
TRANSITION TIME OF PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW. EXPECT MOST OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH PART WITH MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER.
AN AVERAGE OF THE NAM AND GFS QPF AND HPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE NORTH PART...AND AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE.

THE LINGERING SNOW SHOULD END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO
WARM BECAUSE OF THE ICE PACK. ALSO THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TOO WARM BECAUSE OF THE DENSE ICE PACK.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
H85 WESTERLY FLOW SUGGESTED LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE STRONG. AN AVERAGE OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORT
POPS OF 30 TO 70 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES IN THE NORTH PART
CLOSER TO THE STRONGER LIFT. MAINLY USED AN AVERAGE FOR THE POP
FORECAST EXCEPT DID NOT FORECAST QUITE LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE H85
WESTERLY FLOW. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COOLING FOR A BRIEF MIX OF SNOW
IN THE NORTH PART. THE SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES SO WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING DURING MOST OF THE
REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. EXPECT LIMITED MOISTURE WITH A WEAK
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST RADAR RETURNS SHOW AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE MAINLY FREEZING
RAIN MOVING ACROSS TAF SITES AT 13/06Z. IFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING VFR THURSDAY EVENING. FREEZING RAIN WILL
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO MAINLY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG AFTER 13/09Z BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY
MORNING. AS CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SOME WRAP AROUND MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SOMETIME
BETWEEN 13/12Z AND 13/18Z MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS SC THURSDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT AND ADJUST IF NEEDED WITH THE 12Z
ISSUANCE. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WESTERLY
AROUND 013/15Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BRING
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE LITTLE OR NO AVIATION
RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED ONCE CURRENT STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

237 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MUCH OF THE FREEZING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 400 AM. EXPECT MAINLY FREEZING
DRIZZLE WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN ITS WAKE. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR AFTER 400 AM. THE MID-LEVEL
DRY SLOT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE BECOMING DEEPER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS MORNING. THIS WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTH PART. BELIEVE THE SNOW THAT WAS IN PARTS OF ALABAMA
AND NORTH GEORGIA WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM TIME-
HEIGHT DISPLAYS SHOW MOISTURE GETTING INTO THE SNOW-GROWTH ZONE
AS THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE HRRR SHOWS H85
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO BELOW FREEZING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE MORNING. USED THIS GUIDANCE FOR THE TRANSITION TIME OF
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE
A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN
THE NORTH PART WITH MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER. AN AVERAGE OF THE NAM AND
GFS QPF AND HPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN
THE NORTH PART...AND AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS
LIKELY TOO WARM BECAUSE OF THE DENSE ICE PACK.

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST RADAR RETURNS SHOW AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE MAINLY FREEZING
RAIN MOVING ACROSS TAF SITES AT 13/06Z. IFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING VFR THURSDAY EVENING. FREEZING RAIN WILL
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO MAINLY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG AFTER 13/09Z BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY
MORNING. AS CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SOME WRAP AROUND MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SOMETIME
BETWEEN 13/12Z AND 13/18Z MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS SC THURSDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT
WILL MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT AND ADJUST IF NEEDED WITH THE 12Z
ISSUANCE. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WESTERLY
AROUND 013/15Z.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

1250 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014/

UPDATE...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME HEAVIER PRECIP BEGINNING TO
FILL BACK IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING...THE PRECIP
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ATL METRO LOOKS CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...SO
EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY FZRA IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS AOB 32 DEGREES.
NORTH OF THE METRO AREA...WHERE THE PRECIP RETURNS LOOK MORE
UNIFORM...HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS NW GA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING.

NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014/

SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CONTINUES...

BAKER

BDL

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
PATCHES OF WINTRY MIX MOVING ACROSS TAF SITES...WITH AREA OF -SN
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TAF SITES THRU 10Z. ANTICIPATE
WINTER PRECIP TO WIND DOWN BY 10-12Z. IFR/VFR CONDS WILL DROP TO
IFR/LIFR AS -SN MOVES ACROSS...BUT AS PRECIP MOVES OUT WE SHOULD
START TO SEE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF
NORTHWEST IS STARTING TO BACK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVER NORTHWEST
GA AND SHOULD BE NW TO N BY 10Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ATL AREA AND AHN TAF SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 42 31 49 29 / 30 0 20 30
ATLANTA 43 34 52 31 / 20 0 20 30
BLAIRSVILLE 40 25 45 24 / 30 5 60 40
CARTERSVILLE 43 30 51 28 / 20 0 30 30
COLUMBUS 48 36 59 35 / 10 0 10 20
GAINESVILLE 43 32 49 29 / 30 0 20 30
MACON 46 32 57 35 / 20 0 10 20
ROME 43 29 50 28 / 20 5 60 30
PEACHTREE CITY 44 30 54 30 / 20 0 20 30
VIDALIA 47 35 61 40 / 20 0 5 20

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CLAYTON...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...
GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MERIWETHER...
MONROE...MORGAN...NEWTON...PEACH...PIKE...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TREUTLEN...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WILKINSON.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...
HARRIS...MACON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PULASKI...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...
WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...FANNIN...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...
JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...TOWNS...UNION...
WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATWELL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
350 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 320 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2014
Weather map getting increasingly complicated as the weather
shifts into a more active pattern. Deep wave crossing the srn tier
of the country and another small system moving across the nrn
plains this morning...both of these systems will start the more
active pattern. Though these two storm systems will not directly
impact the CWA, the systems that move into the wake of the more
amplified pattern aloft will bring a couple shots for snow going
into the weekend. Models showing some more consistency btwn
systems through the medium range forecast...if lacking in the
extended. Major warming trend through the forecast creating quite
the spread in the MOS as well. For now, the forecast remains
a conservative blend as the airmass begins to modify.

SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Partly cloudy skies today not enough to block some significant
warming as winds come around to the south and increasing
throughout the day as the high pressure ridge moves out to the
east. Temperatures will briefly climb above freezing today in most
locations. However, the temp increase will be brief and truncated
by another system for tomorrow. A quick short wave rippling down
from the nrn plains and into the Midwest bringing a shot of snow
to the FA, focusing more to the SW at this point, resulting in an
inch or two for areas southwest of a line from Lincoln to Decatur
to Mattoon. Last model runs slowed down the approach for this
storm, as a result have backed off the pops slightly for late
tonight into the early morning hours, but still should see the
precip developing to the west/southwest after midnight tonight.
Snow will diminish tomorrow evening.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...
Another quick wave dives into the Midwest, bringing the best lift
to the NErn portion of the CWA...with another similar inch or two
along and northeast of a line from Galesburg to Champaign.
Temperatures on Sunday will struggle to climb towards freezing,
and the early morning temps will be in the 20s after
midnight/Monday morning. Precipitation spreading ahead of a larger
developing system in the early hours of Monday morning will fall
through a deep mid level warm layer has pushed the forecast to
freezing rain. Available moisture will have to work through some
dry air at first, keeping qpf low...as well as probability at this
point, but the threat for fzra remains that morning. As the temp
rises, and the precip continues to develop with the stronger lift
of the main wave...should go to all rain for Monday while the
temperatures are progged to climb into the 40s. Forecast still
optimistic though there will be a lot of snow to melt...as the
southerly winds will def assist the thaw. Temperatures even warmer
after a cooler day on Tues behind the precip...with AllBlend
pushing the maxT on Wednesday to 40s and 50s.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1156 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2014

An area of VFR clouds at 3.5k-4k feet will move across north-
central IL the rest of the night. It will scape across areas just
north of PIA, based on satellite and forecast soundings. We did
not include a cloud ceiling at any terminal site until 700mb/10k
FT moisture arrives around mid-day on Thursday. Otherwise, mainly
cirrus clouds are expected over the first 12 hours of the TAF
period.

A very weak pressure gradient under departing high pressure will
keep winds light and variable until later Thursday morning. Then
as the clipper and cold front approach from the northwest, winds
will become south and eventually southwest before increasing to
15G25kt at times. Thurs evening winds should continue to veer
around to the west and diminish to around 10-12kt.

The HRRR and 00z NAM project and increase in low level moisture
later Thur into Thur eve, with potential for IFR cloud ceilings
for a time. It appears that PIA and BMI will have the better
chances of IFR conditions, with MVFR possible at the other
terminal sites. Confidence is marginal on how long those clouds
will linger, if they develop at all, since the GFS is not as
aggressive with that moisture.

Shimon
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

321 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
757 PM CST

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP TRENDS AND CLOUD COVER HOWEVER. TEMPS
HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS THANKS TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH AN INCREASE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. CURRENT
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH BE BREAKING
UP/MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SO COOLING WILL COMMENCE LATER THIS
EVENING. A RIBBON OF LOWER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA MAY
STICK AROUND LONGER...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER ENCROACHING LATER
TONIGHT AS WELL...SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS HOWEVER WILL LIKELY COOL INTO THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY COOLING A LITTLE
MORE THAN FORECAST THANKS TO THE LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASED CLOUD
COVER.

MDB

//PREV DISCUSSION...
320 PM CST

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH THE POTENTIAL MINOR TO MODERATE
SNOW EVENT ON SATURDAY AND THEN MESSY WEATHER POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BEYOND DAY 7...CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO INCREASE IN A BRIEF
BUT SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP. ATTENTION WAS ALSO PAID TO A SYSTEM THAT
WILL SKIRT OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY...AS WELL AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...

WEAK RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE EVENING...WITH GRADIENT
INCREASING SOME AS CLIPPER APPROACHES THE REGION TOWARD MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTEST ALL NIGHT IN SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF CWA...WHICH IS WHERE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO ERODE. AS
A RESULT...DESPITE CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...CONCERNED FOR
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A SHOT AT A FEW ISOLATED SUBZERO READINGS IN RURAL
AREAS. OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS...DID NOT MAKE BIG CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST LOWS...WITH UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS AND MID TEENS
IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF A CLIPPER TRACKING ACROSS
WISCONSIN...WHICH IS NOT A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION TYPICALLY. HOWEVER...GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PAINT LIGHT QPF NORTH OF I-80 FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTH SOUTH WARM FRONT OF THE CLIPPER. BROUGHT
SLIGHT POPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...WITH LOW CHANCE ALONG WI BORDER.
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING MEASURABLE SNOW HOWEVER IS LOW. WOULDNT
EXPECT MORE THAN A DUSTING IF IT OCCUR ED. THIS IS ALSO BECAUSE
GUSTING SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WAA ALOFT WILL FINALLY GIVE
MUCH OF THE AREA A CHANCE TO REACH OR EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN 2 WEEKS! A COLDER MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE CLIPPER THURSDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT HOW FAR TEMPERATURES DROP.
EXPECTING LOW-MID TEENS NORTH AND UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 SOUTH
OF I-80.

FRIDAY...

ENERGY IN FAST PACIFIC JET BARGING INTO PAC NW THAT HAS NOT YET BEEN
SAMPLED WILL TOP A TEMPORARILY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THEN SPEED SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID MS
VALLEY. THIS WILL SPUR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT THAT AT THIS TIME
LOOKS TO GIVE A GLANCING BLOW TO THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THAT THIS
FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN RAOB SAMPLED YET...CAN STILL FORESEE
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK...BUT WITH GUIDANCE CONSISTENT ON ONLY A
GLANCING BLOW...KEPT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN CWA...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES UP TO I-80. MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR
FAR SOUTH PENDING FUTURE TRENDS...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER LOWER
AND MID MS VALLEY. THUS WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND EXPECTING AT MOST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL SOME INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT CLIPPER TOWARDS DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW COLD PAST FEW NIGHTS WERE
WITH SIMILAR OR WARMER TEMP PROFILE THAN INDICATED FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE...HAVE LOWERED AREAS WEST OF FOX
VALLEY TO THE MINUS SINGLE DIGITS AND CONCERNED THAT THESE ARE TOO
MILD. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...MAY ALSO
NEED TO LOWER TEMPS MORE AWAY FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO.

SATURDAY...

OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS SOME ON TRACK AND A BIT ON TIMING
OF AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER...HOWEVER GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT. SUBTLE FEATURES LIKE CLIPPERS ARE PRONE TO
RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TRACK BEFORE ADEQUATE SAMPLING BUT
THERE IS SOLID ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE AREA
THAT I FELT COMFORTABLE IN INCREASING POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO
LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS FOCUSED TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY EVENING AS THE CLIPPER DEPARTS. SIGNS
THAT THE WAVE THAT WILL PRODUCE THE CLIPPER WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT
TRAVERSES THE REGION...SO ITS POSSIBLE DAYTIME SATURDAY WILL END UP
BEING MOST FAVORED FOR ACCUMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
RELATIVELY DEEP/ABOUT 100 MB/DGZ...SO COULD SEE RATIOS A BIT HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...THE THINKING IS A 1-3" OR PERHAPS UP TO
2-4" TYPE SNOWFALL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

SUNDAY WILL BE A QUIET AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES. CHANGES WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL ENSUE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
TROUGH AND CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL
RESULT IN RAPID WARMING ALOFT TO 2 TO 5 C AT 850 MB BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. SHOULD PRECIPITATION BREAK OUT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE WELL BELOW
FREEZING TO START BUT WITH WARM SURGE ALOFT...INDICATED SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCES FOR SLEET/ZR. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ON MONDAY
BUT LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...WITH COLDER AIR RETURNING BEHIND IT LATE IN THE DAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS PRETTY TO BE A DECENT BET FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY EARLIEST IN
THE SOUTH...BUT WITH VERY COLD GROUND TEMPS CONCERNED THAT THERE
STILL COULD BE ICING. PRECIP SHOULD THEN TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
BY MONDAY EVENING COLUMN COOLS...WITH ANY IMPACTS DICTATED BY HOW
PROGRESSIVE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS. TRANSITION DAY FOR
SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF PATTERN CHANGE THAT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY
WILL BE TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...RAPID HEIGHT RISES AND WAA IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AT LEAST 40 AREA WIDE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD.

BECOMING QUITE CONCERNED WITH WHAT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH H8 TEMPS
WARMING TO +10C OR HIGHER A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FROM A WIDE OPEN
GULF AND SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING IN A MOIST AND UNSEASONABLY
MILD AIR MASS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 50S AND 60S ON THURS-FRI...AND
IF THIS OCCURS...RAPID SNOWMELT OF DEEP SNOWPACK CONTAINING 1-4" OF
WATER AND ICE MELT ON RIVERS WOULD ENSUE...WITH ASSOCIATED FLOODING
CONCERNS. THIS WOULD BE EXACERBATED BY ANY PERIODS OF STEADY
RAINFALL. WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS PERIOD VERY CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS. COLDER AIR THEN LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT BCMG WEST THIS EVENING AND GUSTING
UP TO 25 KT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.

* POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY THIS
AFTN...WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR VSBY PSBL.

* MVFR CIGS ACCOMPANY THE SNOW AND LINGER OVERNIGHT.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD AND A HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR
CLOUD DECK REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOW NO SIGN OF
BREAKING UP AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MASS OF CLOUDS
SHOULD REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS MORNING. WITH THICK CLOUD
COVER OVERHEAD...THINKING FOG WILL NOT DEVELOP AT DPA.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER NORTHERN WI TODAY AND THERE STILL IS
CONCERN THAT A BRIEF BUT INTENSE SNOW SQUALL COULD IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT BEFORE THAT...SOUTH WINDS PICK UP BY
MID MORNING AND BEGIN GUSTING TO 20 KT. THE SNOW SQUALL WOULD BE
EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTN AND ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER CANNOT NAIL DOWN A SPECIFIC TIME JUST YET SO
LEFT THE PROB30 IN THE TAFS FOR EARLY THIS AFTN. ALSO NOT SURE HOW
INTENSE THE SNOW WILL BE BUT IFR IF NOT LOWER VSBY SEEMS VERY REASONABLE.

CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE SNOW AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ALSO INCREASE IN THE AFTN WITH SW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT. WINDS BECOME WEST BEHIND THE LOWS COLD
FRONT AND CONTINUE TO GUST TO ARND 25 KT THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
THE W TO NW WINDS REMAIN GUSTY BUT ONLY TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT THERE MAY BE A STRAY FLURRY OR PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING AS WELL...BUT DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN THE TAF JUST YET. IF THE PRECIP
DOES FORM...EXPECTING IT IN THE 00-05Z TIME FRAME AT RFD AND BTWN
03Z AND 09Z AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS.

JEE

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF SNOW SQUALL THIS AFTN
AND HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IT SHOULD ONLY
LAST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY. A SLIGHT CHC OF A WINTER MIX
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR PSBL.

MONDAY...CHC RA OR FZRA DURING THE DAY...POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW
OVERNIGHT. IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...VFR.

KJB

.MARINE...
318 AM CST

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST BUT HAVE LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS. LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30 KT TODAY. THE LOW PASSES OVER THE LAKE THIS EVENING
AND WINDS VEER TO NW AT 30 KT BY FRIDAY MORNING. NW WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER
THE LAKE SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE. THE NEXT
LOW PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND REACHES THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS VARYING
FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS OVER THE LAKE
SUNDAY. WINDS TURN SE AND INCREASE IN SPEED AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SE TO S TO 30 KT AND
THEN VEER TO WEST 10-20 KT MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW. THE
REMAINDER OF EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS QUIET OVER THE LAKE.

JEE

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1156 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2014

A band of mid clouds at 9k ft moved across our northern counties
over the last couple of hours. Some radar returns coincided with
their passage over Peoria and Bloomington, but no precipitation
reached the ground due to the very dry air below the clouds. Those
clouds have mostly dissipated as of 855 pm as they moved into the
surface ridge. Additional clouds farther west across eastern Iowa
are remaining relatively stationary as the associated cold frontal
boundary dissipates.

We are still expecting a brief period of colder air as the
remnants of the cold front/trough pass across northern IL tonight,
but the cool down will be brief as warmer air immediately begins a
return ahead of the next clipper system. Highs should rebound into
the mid to upper 30s for highs, after morning lows in the single
digits to around 10 above. A cold front with that system is
projected to reach near the Illinois river by 6pm Thursday, but
light snow should remain north of our counties. A better chance of
measurable snow will come with yet another shortwave disturbance
affecting our southwest counties Friday. Areas southwest of a line
from Rushville to Lincoln to Mattoon could see 1 to 3 inches of
snow, with the higher amounts farther southwest of Jacksonville to
Springfield to Effingham.

Updates tonight were mainly to the sky grids to slow down the
arrival of clouds and some minor adjustments to lower the low
temps in a few spots that dropped off quickly this evening.
Updated forecast info will be available shortly.

Shimon

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1156 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2014

Shimon
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2014

Active weather pattern will bring a couple chances for light snow
over the next few days...followed by a major warming trend next week.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday

Vigorous short-wave noted on latest water vapor imagery near
Kansas City will continue to dive southeastward tonight, carving
out a significant trough over the Deep South. Strongest lift
associated with this feature will remain S/SW of Illinois this
evening, thus chances for any very light precip are dwindling.
Radar mosaic has been showing light snow across Iowa/northern
Missouri steadily diminishing this afternoon as upper support
wanes and precip moves toward a drier airmass east of the
Mississippi River. Due to these trends, have removed chance for
flurries during the evening hours. While skies will start out
partly to mostly cloudy, mostly clear conditions will return
overnight. Due to the clearing skies and continued very light
winds, am expecting another cold night with lows in the single
digits above zero.

Next upstream short-wave currently over the Northern Rockies will
remain to the north of central Illinois on Thursday, with any snow
confined to Wisconsin and perhaps far northern Illinois. Further
south, partly sunny skies and an increasing southwesterly wind
will help boost temps above the freezing mark. Numeric guidance
shows quite a temp spread for Thursday, with the MET being about
5 degrees colder than the MAV. Based on what is currently
happening across central Illinois where sunshine and light winds
have already resulted in temps rebounding well into the 20s, will
lean toward the warmer guidance tomorrow when WAA will be much
stronger. As a result, highs will reach the middle to upper 30s
across the board.

Once the Thursday system skirts by to the north, attention will
turn to yet another short-wave expected to race through the region
late Thursday night into Friday. 12z Feb 12 models have shifted
the 500mb vort max track a bit further south than previous
runs...now more closely resembling the GEM from the past few days.
Track from the Dakotas Thursday evening to the lower Ohio River
Valley by Friday evening places the southern half of the KILX CWA
in a favorable zone for accumulating snow. System will have
adequate upper support and a decent amount of moisture to work
with, but will be moving quickly. Based on expected QPF, think 1
to 2 inches of snow will fall along and southwest of a
Rushville...to Springfield...to Robinson line late Thursday night
into Friday morning. Further northeast, little or no accumulation is
anticipated along and north of I-74.

Next in the series of fast-moving storm system moves into the
region on Saturday, with all operational models agreeing on a
further north track than the Friday system. Similar dynamics and
moisture profiles in play will produce 1 to 2 inches of snow
across the northern KILX CWA, mainly along/north of I-74 on
Saturday. Further southwest, only trace amounts are expected
across the S/SW CWA around Jacksonville and Springfield.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday

Active weather pattern continues into the extended, as
southwesterly upper flow develops across much of the central and
eastern CONUS next week. As next storm system approaches, warmer
air will override the cold airmass in place...potentially
producing some wintry precipitation Sunday night. Forecast
soundings do not fully saturate: however, all are warm enough to
support liquid precip. The problem will be surface temps, which
are expected to be below freezing. Therefore if any precip arrives
late Sunday night, it will be in the form of freezing rain. At
this point, am not totally convinced precip will arrive that soon,
so will only carry slight chance POPs for freezing rain. Much
better precip chances arrive on Monday as system moves in from the
southwest. Temps will be warm enough to support rain, with highs
reaching the lower to middle 40s. Once this system exits, upper
heights will continue to rise...resulting in a marked warming
trend for the middle and end of next week. While raw model data
suggests highs potentially reaching the 60s by next
Thursday/Friday, lingering snow cover will likely mitigate the
warming. Even still, temps climbing above the 50 degree mark seem
quite plausible.

Barnes

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

501 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SNOW TO AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 79 TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEFORMATION BAND OF HEAVY SNOW HAS MADE IT INTO
PRESTON...TUCKER...AND GARRETT COUNTIES THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING AN INCH AN HOUR AS THIS BAND MOVES
NORTHWARD. WITH SNOWFALL REPORTS ALREADY IN THE 3-4 INCH RANGE
OVER TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES...HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD STILL DECREASE RATES BRIEFLY
THIS MORNING...AS IS ALREADY BEING SEEN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE PRECIP ON RADAR OVER OUR CWA. SNOW HAS STRUGGLED TO GO MUCH
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE VERY TIP OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY YET THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MAKE IT TO PITTSBURGH.

AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH STRENGTHS THE COASTAL LOW...THE
TROWAL AND ENHANCED SNOWFALL SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND PIVOT ACROSS
THE COUNTIES EAST OF I79 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE DELMARVA AND REACH LONG ISLAND BY THIS TONIGHT...TAKING
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
BY THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE RIDGES BEFORE A WEAK FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES CROSSES THE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

DESPITE THE EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO
FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND SHOULD NOT FALL TOO
MUCH UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD ADVECTION MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH TOWARD WEST VIRGINIA.
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE BETTER THAN THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS...SUGGESTING THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL
STAY SOUTH OF I-70. FOR NOW...CARRIED THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE
SOUTH BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE FURTHER NORTH SINCE THE MODELS ARE
STILL TRYING TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE COLD
ADVECTION EARLY FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW MAY CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS UP NORTH AND IN THE RIDGES ON SATURDAY BUT WITH A LACK OF
MOISTURE AND THE FROZEN LAKE ERIE...VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE TOWARD THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY MOISTURE
STARVED SO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES DUE TO THE
SERIES OF WAVES AND COLD ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING A COUPLE OF
QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVES IN THE SHORT TERM...WHICH TRANSLATES TO
GREATER DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ONE THING THAT IS
GENERALLY AGREED UPON IS A WARMUP TO AT LEAST NORMAL TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN AN EXITING WEAK LOW SUN AND A
QUICK MOVING FRONT MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONG WAA WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG THE
FRONT. ELECTING TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW AS
CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EC/GFS EXIST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ULTIMATELY REINFORCING THE WARMING TREND.

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS A FAIRLY SHARP EDGE TO THE EXPANSE OF SNOW
WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC SYSTEM THROUGH THURS. IFR SNOW EXPECTED IN MGW
AND LBE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURS...WITH SEVERAL OTHER SITES
DROPPING TO MVFR CIGS...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE WESTERN
EDGE ENDS UP. FKL/ZZV SHOULD HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
PREDOMINANTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINING SO FAR
TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID-MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY BACKING TO WESTERLY THURS NIGHT. WIND SPEED WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGHOUT.

.OUTLOOK..../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS SVRL FAST
MOVG DISTURBANCES CROSS THE RGN.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ074>076.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
041.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ021-022.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

303 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

Primary forecast challenge during the next 36 hours will be
precipitation chances late tonight into late Friday morning. Water
vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper disturbance currently
moving onshore over southern British Columbia. This upper wave will
quickly move southeastward and arrive at the forecast area by late
tonight as the upper trough begins to amplify. A moderate spread
remains with model output, primarily owing to the degree of
saturation below H85. Overall low-level moisture remains limited and
will be a mitigating factor for more impressive precipitation
potential, however strong large scale ascent is expected during the
approach/passage of the wave. Forecast soundings suggest mainly a
snow event assuming sufficient saturation does occur. The highest
probability of measurable snowfall will reside across the northeast
quarter of the forecast area. Total snowfall amounts in this area
will average one-half inch with some isolated locations near
Kirksville possibly experiencing near an inch. Again, modest
uncertainty remains to the degree of low-level saturation that can
be obtained, and snow amounts may vary pending this variable.
Snowfall is expected to move east of the area by Friday afternoon.

As for temperatures, maximum readings this afternoon remain somewhat
uncertain due to the degree of modification from the existing snow
pack. Trended conservative for afternoon readings, with lower to
middle 40s in most locations. Temperatures will be a little cooler
on Friday, but the southwest half of the forecast area should exceed
the freezing mark as skies become mostly clear following the passage
of the upper wave.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

Above normal temperatures are still expected for the weekend ahead
and much of next week. Most snow cover should be eliminated this
weekend and low-level ridging will build into the area in between
clipper systems, allowing temperatures to reach the mid to upper 40s
on Saturday and Sunday, and the 50s early next week to possibly
lower 60s by midweek. Light snow remains possible for Saturday over
far northern and northeast Missouri as one of the clipper systems
drops through central and eastern IA, but any accumulations should
be fairly light and confined to the northeast corner of the forecast
area. Light rain showers are also possible on Monday as shortwave
trough pushes through the central CONUS, and another round of
showers with some potential for a few rumbles of thunder are
possible Thursday as cold front sweeps eastward across the region.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Midnight Friday)
Issued at 1105 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

No changes to previous forecast. Sub 2Kft MVFR ceilings persist
across the terminals this evening, with surface observations showing
a break just west of FNB and TOP. RUC13 model 925mb RH maintains the
stratus through around 09Z and this advects it east of the
terminals, in line with previous TAF.

Otherwise, VFR conditions will return with mid cloud cover
persisting. Light and variable winds will trend light
south-southwest later on and then increase from the southwest at
10-12 knots by midday. Winds will ease toward the west by 00Z and
diminish.

With temperatures expected to climb into the 40s, considerable
snowmelt may occur tomorrow, perhaps settings up the stage for
radiation fog if clear skies and light winds permit. Have introduced
IFR visibilities after 03Z in the outlook period as a hedge in this
direction.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Bookbinder

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1110 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 338 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

Very fast northwest flow aloft will dominate the upper flow west of
the Mississippi River through Saturday. There will be no fewer than
3 clipper type systems which will be embedded within this flow and
will pass close or through the CWA during this period. And the long
awaited thaw, which normally comes in January, will finally arrive.

In the very short term a shortwave trough will exit the CWA this
evening on its way towards enhancing the winter storm which is
ongoing over the southeastern U.S. A weak cold front currently over
northwest MO will likely fall apart over the CWA tonight. This will
present a forecast challenge as a band of low clouds has followed
the passage of this front. With very weak winds behind the front
plus some residual moisture from today`s snowmelt it`s possible
these low clouds will linger well into the night...and thus keep
temperatures from falling too far.

First in the series of clipper systems will pass through the Dakotas
and MN tonight/Thursday. Pressure falls east of the Rockies will
allow moderately strong warm air advection to spread through the
region tomorrow and allow above freezing temperatures. The extensive
and deep snow cover plus increasing high level clouds will temper
the warmup but highs in the 40s seem reasonable for most.

A stronger system will track further south Thursday night and Friday
and bring a good chance for precipitation to at least the northeast
half of the CWA. Models are all on the same page but with some
timing differences. The combination of an increasing NW-SE oriented
baroclinic zone over the CWA with a deepening upper system justifies
increasing PoPs this area with measurable snowfall likely. Have gone
conservative on snow amounts with this package but one could argue
for somewhat higher amounts due to the strength of the warm air
advection. The frontal boundary associated with this system will
likely pass through the CWA on Friday and knock temperatures back
down below seasonal averages.

The third clipper system will arrive for the start of the weekend
but pass further north than Fridays system. Another surge of warm
air advection south of this upper system will result in a warm front
lifting northeast through the CWA during the day. Should be able to
wring out some elevated precipitation northeast of this boundary
with most of the precipitation falling north and east of the CWA.
Most favorable region in the CWA for chance PoPs will be over the
northeastern counties with snow the most likely precipitation type.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

Conditions continue to look favorable for a period of warm weather
for our section of the country. The break down of the ridge over the
West Coast recently will allow a more zonal like flow to develop
across the nation during this period. While significant troughs are
still moving through the adjusted flow, the Polar express that has
been feeding the center of the country with Arctic air will take some
time off. Therefore, the warming trend that is beginning this week
will persist into next week, with the occasional dip in temperatures
as fast moving shortwave troughs zip through the flattened flow
across the nation.

Confidence in the overall upward trend in temperatures through next
week is rather high, though the specifics of those warmer
temperatures will be very hard to forecast with precision due to the
melting snow pack. This may introduce significant errors in forecast
highs for late in the weekend and early next work week. So,
confidence in above freezing, snow melting, weather is high with
readings ranging through the 40s and 50s for much of the next work
week, with a mid week appearance of 60s possible as advertised
850mb temperatures stay above zero. However, as a cautionary tail
that winter isn`t done yet, current models also advertise a return
of the highly amplified pattern just past the following weekend,
with a return of the cold Arctic air.

Otherwise, one of the troughs moving through will arrive in our
area Monday, and with the expectation of above freezing temperatures
current thoughts are that we might have some rain to start the next
work week. Rainfall amounts wont be very high however owing to poor
moisture from the Gulf, but every little bit will help.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Midnight Friday)
Issued at 1105 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Bookbinder

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

1030 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

00Z SOUNDING AT KABR SHOWS 30 TO 40 KTS ABOVE 900 MB THIS EVENING
AS LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION
SET UP OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE AND STRONG FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE
RIDGE LINE...ATMOSPHERE IS SET UP FOR DEVELOPMENT OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE OVERNIGHT. ALL HIGH RES
MODELS SHOW GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT.
WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO DEVELOP
WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS FROM NORTH OF IVANHOE MN TO NEAR MML
AND TRACY AND DOWN TOWARD SLAYTON AND WINDOM. WHILE VISIBILITIES
NEAR 1/2 MILE WILL PREDOMINATE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS WITH
WHITE OUT CONDITIONS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE RIDGE LINE WEST OF
MARSHALL AND TRACY. SINCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD WHITE
OUT CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS...DID NOT ISSUE A BLIZZARD
WARNING BUT DRIVING COULD BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DOES INCLUDE BROOKINGS
COUNTY...BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE CITY OF
BROOKINGS. THE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING.THEY WON`T BE QUITE AS STRONG ALONG THE
RIDGE AS TONIGHT...BUT FOR PLACES AWAY FROM THE RIDGE THESE WINDS
MAY ACTUALLY BE STRONGER...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH FROM BROOKINGS
DOWN TO JACKSON AND WORTHINGTON. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION KEEPING
THE SURFACE LAYER WELL MIXED...IT SHOULD ALSO BE EASIER TO LOFT
SNOW DURING LATE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY MID AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THERE IS EVERY INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE MOST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF SOME PLACES IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA REACH
THE UPPER 40S AND MAY EVEN REACH 40 AS FAR EAST AS SIOUX FALLS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON BOTH HOW
EFFECTIVE MIXING WILL BE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AND HOW QUICK THE
COLD AIR WILL COME IN. SO HAVE TEMPERATURES ONLY RISE LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW INTO THE MID 30S NORTH OF I90 TO THE LOWER
40S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SW MN
AND FAR ERN SD WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL ALL DAY. IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY...THE FRONT MAY SLOW UP SO THAT THE COLDEST AIR
CANNOT REALLY GET THAT FAR SOUTH AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE AFTERNOON TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 40S.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014
HORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES LOOKS TO BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
OVER THE AREA...BUT THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER WILL BE
THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL
SHOW THEIR GREATEST INCREASE OVER THE FAVORED BUFFALO RIDGE AREA IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND THAT IS WHERE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BLOWING
SNOW WILL BE THE GREATEST. ENOUGH NEW SNOW FELL LAST NIGHT TO RESULT
IN GREATER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITH THE BLOWING SNOW THAN WITH
YESTERDAYS SUB ADVISORY EVENT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...INCLUDING MOST OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
BROOKINGS COUNTY. AFTER THE WINDS SWING TO WESTERLY AND DECREASE BY
MORNING...THEY WILL PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL
BE MORE GENERAL OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
NOT AS STRONG AS THE MORE LOCALIZED WINDS TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL
MENTION BLOWING SNOW IN OTHER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO THE SPENCER IOWA AREA...AND NOT GO WITH AN
ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER
IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THOUGH THE EFFECT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
STRIKINGLY LOCAL AS WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP THE ABOVE MENTIONED ADVISORY GOING INTO MID AFTERNOON
THURSDAY...AFTER WHICH THE WINDS WILL BE ON A CLEAR DECREASE.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A LITTLE BY EARLY EVENING IN THE STILL LIGHT
WIND AREA FAR EAST...OTHERWISE THEY SHOULD BE WARMING MOST OF THE
NIGHT. AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PRETTY CLEAR BY THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLOUD INCREASE WILL THEN START UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL SHOW SOME
WARMING FROM THE EARLY MORNING MILD READINGS SOUTH...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST...WHILE SOME COOLING STARTS NORTH BEHIND TONIGHTS WAVE. AT
THIS TIME DO NOT SEE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING SOON ENOUGH TO
THREATEN PRECIPITATION BY THE END OF THURSDAY DAYTIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

THE BARRAGE OF WEAK WAVES CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL DIV Q POSITIONED FURTHER TO THE EAST...BUT
WHERE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER EXPECT BAND OF
SNOW. FORTUNATELY...MODELS HAVE COOLED IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES
ALOFT SO AM NOT THINKING MIXED PRECIPITATION IS A THREAT. HAVE
SHIFTED THE BAND OF SNOW FURTHER TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL
WAVE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO QUICKLY WORK OUT OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING. WITH COOL
AIRMASS HANGING AROUND THE AREA...MOST SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL BE
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING. INCREASED POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH APPEARS AS
THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY
A FEW HOURS OF SATURATION IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION. STILL COULD SEE A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW WITH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS AROUND 15:1. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ALOFT...EXPECT DECENT TEMPERATURE RECOVER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY BECOME A LITTLE
BREEZY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER
FURTHER TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.

FAIRLY SOLID WARMING IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING MIXED SIGNALS...BUT TENDED TO
LEAN STRONGER ON THE ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH WOULD SUGGEST TO ERR ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL WAVE. STILL A QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS WAVE...SO WAS
PRETTY CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS.

COOL AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS OVER GUIDANCE...THOUGH THEY SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

LOWS CLOUDS ARE STILL ACROSS SW MN AND NW IA AS OF 04Z BUT THEY
HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SW
FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO MOVE BACK
INTO SIOUX CITY OR SIOUX FALLS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THERE
MAY BE SOME STRATOCU THAT FORMS BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90...INCLUDING
KFSD AND KHON. ONLY THE NAM...WHICH HAS A TENDENCY TO OVERDO LOW
CLOUDS...SHOWS BROKEN SKIES WHILE THE GFS AND RAP ARE MORE
OPTIMISTIC. SO ONLY INCLUDED A SCATTERED DECK AT THIS POINT BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES THROUGH 00Z FRI. WINDS HOWEVER MAY BE A PROBLEM. TONIGHT
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED OUT OF THE SOUTH. THEN AFTER
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO GUST TO NEAR 30 KTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES IN. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVERHEAD AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. THROUGH
06Z...ONLY EXPECT MVFR AT KHON. BUT AFTER 06Z...ALL THREE SITES
LIKELY TO SEE CIGS BELOW 3000 FT AND VSBYS MAY FALL BELOW 3SM DUE
TO DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW.

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR SDZ040.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

350 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

AT 3 AM...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID 20S. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30S AND 40S. THIS WARM FRONT HAS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING FROM 900 TO 800 MB. THE RAP INDICATES THAT
THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN UP TO 500 MB AS IT MOVES
EAST INTO WISCONSIN LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT IS
CURRENTLY PRODUCING SCATTERED OF SNOW IN MINNESOTA...AND THERE WAS
A REPORT OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE DES MOINES AREA. AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. MEANWHILE SOUTH
OF THIS AREA...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW.
WITH MODELS INDICATING A WARM NOSE UP TO 2C BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM
WEST OF U S HIGHWAY 52 THROUGH 9 AM...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
REPORTS OF SLEET AT TIMES. OVERALL THE BEST SATURATION AND LIFT
WILL OCCUR NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THESE AREAS. SNOW TOTALS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES
TODAY.

AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 8C
BETWEEN 13.18Z AND 14.00Z. DUE TO THIS EXPECT...TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY FALL IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

ON SATURDAY...THE 13.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE
MODELS BEING VERY CONSISTENT IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...INCREASED THE SNOW CHANCES UP TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
LIKE THE PAST 3 DAYS...THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
THERE WERE BE AT LEAST A 150 MB /700 TO 550 MB/ IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO AROUND
18 TO 1. WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TENTH
TO 0.15 INCHES IN THESE AREAS...EXPECT A 2 TO 4 INCH BAND OF SNOW.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS CENTERED FROM AUSTIN MINNESOTA TO
OELWEIN LINE...BUT THIS LOCATION COULD DEVIATE QUITE A BIT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAS FINALLY CAME TO
AN AGREEMENT THAT AN OPEN WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 0 TO 4C RANGE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW. COBB DATA IS INDICATING A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AND UP TO A TENTH OF INCH OF ICE MAY
ACCUMULATE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS TIME
PERIOD CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

STRATUS DECK TO THE WEST HAS BEEN FAIRLY STUBBORN SITTING
THERE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY MOVEMENT EAST. MESO MODELS STILL SUGGEST
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CREEP EAST...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS TO THE SOUTH
POSSIBLY REACHING KLSE BEFORE IT DOES. WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY MVFR
CIGS FOR KRST/KLSE...BUT WILL MOVE BACK THE TIMING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS DRIVING -SN PRODUCTION ACROSS ND/WESTERN
MN...WITH RAP13/NAM12 SUGGESTING THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS
HOLDING WELL NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...MOSTLY NORTH OF I-94. SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK...ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE. NOT MUCH GROUND TRUTH EVIDENCE VIA OBS YET. WILL
STAY WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF -SN FOR KLSE/KRST...BUT KEEP VSBY
RESTRICTIONS CONFINED TO KLSE FOR THE MOMENT. ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD
STAY UNDER 1/2 INCH.

MODELED LOW LEVEL RH HOLDS ONTO SATURATION THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BREAK UP IN THE CIGS IS POSSIBLE THU
AFTERNOON. GOING TO HOLD WITH SOME BKN FOR NOW...BUT WILL MOVE TO
VFR.

WINDS ARE GOING TO BE ON THE INCREASE BY 12Z THU...REMAINING
BLUSTERY/GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY. COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FOR THE AFTERNOON...SWINGING WINDS TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS FAIRLY TIGHT FOR THE BETTER
PART OF THU NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SEE A FEW HOUR WINDOW EARLY THU
MORNING FOR LLWS AT KRST/KLSE. BORDER LINE AT THE MOMENT...SO WON/T
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

637 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH OF THE FREEZING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85 JET HAS SHIFTED
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ARE OCCURRING IN IT WAKE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
BECOMING DEEPER AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS MORNING.
THIS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH PART. BELIEVE THE SNOW
THAT WAS IN PARTS OF ALABAMA AND NORTH GEORGIA WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE NAM TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS SHOW MOISTURE GETTING
INTO THE SNOW-GROWTH ZONE AS THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA. THE HRRR SHOWS H85 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO BELOW FREEZING
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING. USED THIS GUIDANCE FOR THE
TRANSITION TIME OF PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW. EXPECT MOST OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH PART WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER.
AN AVERAGE OF THE NAM AND GFS QPF AND HPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE NORTH PART...AND AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON.

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN GA EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF STRENGTHENING SURFACE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SC...AGS ALREADY REPORTING SNOW FLURRIES
13/1125Z. 850MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM PUSHING EAST INTO WESTERN SC
NOW...WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS TAF SITES. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE ALONG WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIKELY
GIVE TAF SITES A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 12Z-17Z THIS
MORNING. HRRR FORECAST REFLECTIVITY SHOWS -SN MAINLY NORTHERN HALF
SC...HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF -SN IN THE TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS
ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP MAY BE NORTH. IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES
CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH MVFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING
VFR THURSDAY EVENING. NORTH WINDS 5-15 KNOTS BECOMING WESTERLY
AROUND 013/15Z.

$$
99

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
954 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 954 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2014

Fast-moving clipper system is currently pushing into the Great
Lakes, while a trailing warm front approaches Illinois from the
west. Band of mid-level clouds accompanying the front has
occasionally produced some very light precip across eastern Iowa.
Despite rather dry 12z upper air soundings from both KDVN and
KILX, the HRRR tries to squeeze out some light QPF across the
Illinois River Valley over the next couple of hours. Based on
upstream reports of UP across eastern Iowa, have added a slight
chance for snow/sleet along/west of the Illinois River through
about 2pm. Band of clouds will quickly push eastward and out of
the area by mid to late afternoon, resulting in mostly sunny skies
across the board later today. Main story will be the much warmer
temps. Increasing southwesterly winds and ample sunshine will help
temps climb above the freezing mark. Despite deep snow cover,
think strong WAA will be enough to boost highs well into the 30s,
with lower 40s across the S/SE CWA. Have made several adjustments
to sky, temp, and POP grids. Zone update will be sent shortly.

Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 525 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2014

Main forecast concern will be with MVFR cigs west of the Mississippi
River early this morning and how far east they will track this morning
into our area, and then with the timing of snow into central Illinois
late in this forecast period.

Weather system tracking well to our north will take most of the
snow and rain to the north of our forecast area as well. However,
a band of MVFR cigs was noted on satellite data over east central
Iowa and was tracking east. Latest short term forecasts off the
HRRR and WRF ensembles suggest a decrease in coverage expected this
morning as it encounters a very dry air mass over our area as high
pressure is slow to depart. Models have trended back on the coverage
of the MVFR and in some cases pockets of IFR cigs late this morning
into the afternoon hours. Still a concern for PIA and BMI so will
keep at least a scattered to broken MVFR cig in those locations while
scaling back the amount of low cloud cover further south.

The next system will be racing southeast into the Plains states this
evening and will begin to affect SPI after 09z. Based on forecast
sounding data, have opted to leave out of this set of TAFs as the low
level dry air ahead of the storm will tend to delay the onset of the
precip late tonight. Surface winds will become south to southwest
today at 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20-24kts by afternoon most
areas. We should see the gusts gradually diminish towards 00z with
directions veering more into a westerly component early this evening.

Smith
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 320 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2014
Weather map getting increasingly complicated as the weather
shifts into a more active pattern. Deep wave crossing the srn tier
of the country and another small system moving across the nrn
plains this morning...both of these systems will start the more
active pattern. Though these two storm systems will not directly
impact the CWA, the systems that move into the wake of the more
amplified pattern aloft will bring a couple shots for snow going
into the weekend. Models showing some more consistency btwn
systems through the medium range forecast...if lacking in the
extended. Major warming trend through the forecast creating quite
the spread in the MOS as well. For now, the forecast remains
a conservative blend as the airmass begins to modify.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

547 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
349 AM CST

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
SATURDAY FROM A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING
INITIALLY ALOFT AND PRESENTING POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A COUPLE OF
MINOR ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW TODAY...AND ALSO THE CHANCE OF A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FAR
SOUTH FRIDAY.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...PROPAGATING EAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...993 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA NEAR DEVILS LAKE. IMPRESSIVE SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS IN EXCESS OF 7 MB/3 HRS WERE NOTED INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND SOUTHWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA
OF SNOW NOTED IN REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS AND SFC OBS. CLOSER TO
HOME...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING LINGERED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA COUNTIES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP
BELOW ZERO IN A FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF CHICAGO...WHILE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF CLOUD COVER NORTH OF ABOUT A PERU-CHICAGO LINE WAS KEEPING TEMPS
THERE 15-20 ABOVE.

THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP ASCENT REMAINING NORTH OF THE
CWA ACROSS MN/WI/MICHIGAN. SOME DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLAY THIS FAR
SOUTH HOWEVER...AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND BENEATH LEFT
EXIT REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET STREAK TO OUR WEST. NARROW AXIS OF
MID-LEVEL SATURATION NOTED IN MODEL TIME SECTIONS...WHICH THEN WORKS
EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH SOME
FOCUSED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND THE 295K THETA SURFACE WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF
7.0-7.5 C/KM NOTED ALOFT. WHILE THERE IS A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900-700
MB...IT APPEARS DYNAMICS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A NARROW
NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF ELEVATED SNOW WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD REACH THE GROUND IN
SOME SPOTS. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE POP
FOR A LOCAL DUSTING MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF IL COUNTIES
DURING MIDDAY. SOME GUIDANCE...NOTABLY THE WRF-BASED RUNS...TRY TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF INTO THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVES THROUGH EARLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY
MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH ONLY SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT.
SEEMS UNLIKELY TO GET DRIZZLE OUT OF THIS SHALLOW MOIST LAYER...OR
ACTUALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT. FAVORING THE COOLER MET MOS FOR MAXES TODAY OVER SNOW
COVER...WITH A BLEND OF CLOSELY MATCHED GUIDANCE FOR COLDER TEMPS
TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH A SHORT WAVE WHICH DIGS INTO
THE MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LARGELY OFF TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD.
HAVE ONLY BRUSHED THE ILX/LOT BORDER AREA WITH A 20-30 POP DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE CWA. COLDER TEMPS TEMPORARILY TO END THE WEEK...THOUGH WITH SOME
SUN EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HAVE GONE AT/SLIGHTLY ABOVE MILDER MAV
MOS HIGHS. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID FOR FRIDAY NIGHT MINS...AS THE
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITHIN SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WHICH MOVES
OVER THE AREA ALLOWS FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE AGAIN...WITH
SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO LOWS ANTICIPATED AWAY FROM THE
CORE OF METRO CHICAGO.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. 00Z MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND WITH EACH OTHER IN HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM. MID-LEVEL VORT TRACK FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO FAVOR MAINLY THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA FOR THE AXIS OF ACCUMULATION...WHICH
STILL LOOKS TO BE IN A 1-3/2-4 INCH RANGE. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING...BEFORE SYSTEM QUICKLY
SCOOTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SNOW ENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE BROAD UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SUPPLYING DRY CONDITIONS
FOR US ON SUNDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH MOVES EAST AND INDUCES LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DETAIL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AND GEM GUIDANCE AT THIS DISTANCE...
THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM (ABOVE FREEZING)
LAYER ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AT LEAST
INITIALLY. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PERIOD OF
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND DECREASE THE
SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL TO THAT OF MAINLY JUST RAIN.
ECMWF/GEM ARE BOTH COOLER WITHIN THE DEPTH OF THE COLUMN THAN THE
GFS...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE AS THEY SORT
OUT THE DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT
MONDAY EVENING...WITH A LULL IN THE ACTION TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE IS INDICATED. WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS TO BE MILD AND
PERHAPS WET...AS GLOBAL MODELS ALL AMPLIFY UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST AND MILD SOUTH WINDS INTO THE MIDWEST. 850 TEMPS FROM BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS APPROACH +10C WEDNESDAY...WITH PROSPECTS FOR EXCEEDING
40 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE A WHILE! INSTEAD OF SUB-ZERO
COLD...SNOW MELT...RUNOFF AND FLOODING WILL THEN BE CONCERNS.

RATZER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT BCMG WEST THIS EVENING AND GUSTING
UP TO 25 KT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.

* POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY THIS
AFTN...WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR...MAYBE LIFR...VSBY PSBL.

* MVFR CIGS ACCOMPANY THE SNOW AND LINGER OVERNIGHT.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION BUT LOW PRESSURE IS PUSHING
EAST INTO MINNESOTA. THE LOW END VFR CLOUD COVER HAS DISSIPATED
AND EXPECTING TO HAVE BKN CIRRUS LAYER OVERHEAD THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID MORNING AND GUST TO 20KT. MAX
GUSTS ARND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND WINDS WILL BECOME WEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. GUSTS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND WINDS SLOWLY TURN TO NW BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR PRECIP...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF PRECIP ARE OVER IA...BUT
THINKING THE FIRST BAND WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES RFD. THE
SECOND BAND SHOULD HAVE BETTER FORCING SINCE IT WILL COLLOCATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT. SNOW SHOULD FALL FOR NO LONGER THAN AN HOUR AT
EACH TERMINAL BUT LEFT A 2 HOUR WINDOW IN THE TAFS. STILL NOT SURE
ABOUT THE EXACT TIMING...HENCE THE WINDOW. IFR VSBY STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST SITES UPSTREAM ARE NO LOWER THAN
1 SM. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE SNOW AND THEN REMAIN THERE
OVERNIGHT.

STILL DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING AS
CONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT HERE
AS FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY BE A NUISANCE TO OPERATIONS. IF WE
SEE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE IT WOULD LIKELY BE BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z.

OTHERWISE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING TO VFR.

JEE

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF SNOW SQUALL THIS AFTN
AND HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IT SHOULD ONLY
LAST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.

SATURDAY...SNOW IN THE AFTN AND EVENING...IFR LIKELY.

SUNDAY...CHC OF FREEZING RAIN OR ICE PELLETS OVERNIGHT. VFR BCMG
MVFR OR LOWER OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BCMG RAIN OR SNOW IN
THE AFTN. DRY OVERNIGHT. IFR IMPROVING VFR OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...CHC OF RAIN. VFR BCMG MVFR OR LOWER.

JEE

.MARINE...
318 AM CST

JEE

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
530 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2014

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 525 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2014

Smith
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
350 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2014

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1156 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2014

Shimon
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

928 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST AND TOWARD CAPE COD
TODAY. SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. THE SNOW
WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY
OVER COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO
SNOW AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. THE STORM SYSTEM WITH THEN EXIT INTO
THE MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
BY...TRACKING FURTHER OUT TO SEA...ON SATURDAY. THIS SECOND LOW
THEN INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT
DRAWING MORE COLD AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

905 AM...AT 14Z A 996 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICNITY OF THE DELMARVA
WITH 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
APPROACHING 8 MILLIBARS. SNOW WAS EXPANDING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. I MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO
REFLECT THE MESONET AS WELL AS SATELLITE TRENDS.

PREV DISC...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. SNOW IS ROCKETING
QUICKLY UP THE COASTLINE AND SHOULD HAVE OVERSPREAD COASTAL YORK
COUNTY BY 8 AM AND IN THE PORTLAND AREA BY 9 AM WHICH IS IN LINE
WITH THE NEW HRRR RUN. HAVE ADJUSTED THE 6 HOUR SNOW GRID HIGHER FOR
SOUTHERN NH AND PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST MAINE ENDING AT 1
PM...AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED UPWARDS FURTHER.

OTHERWISE...COLD AIR REMAINS INTACT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A COASTAL FRONT SHOULD BE FORMING
SHORTLY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE ENTIRE COASTLINE BY MID MORNING.

PREV DISC...
SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL RUN INTO A WALL OF VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR THIS MORNING AS IT ATTEMPT TO ENTER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS...WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND DEEP
MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC WILL
ALLOW FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO QUICKLY OVERCOME THIS DRY COLUMN.

SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING INTO OUR REGION WHERE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS BEGIN AT 7 AM. THE NAM...AS ALWAYS IS
GANGBUSTERS WITH QPF WHICH APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE (ALTHOUGH THE 4
KM NAM IS VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING). HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUCH
DRIER. PREFER THE EURO WHICH IS A GOOD BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS.
THIS MODEL SOLUTION BRINGS 5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT...AS WARM
AIR WILL ENTER THIS REGION DUE TO A DRY SLOT ROTATING IN OVER THE
MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO ENTER
THE REGION ALOFT...BRINGING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO SOUTHERN
AREAS...AND EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING DOWN THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
WITH A NORTH WIND. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED THE MENTION OF RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AS...AFTER OUR COLD...RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
LAST NIGHT...ALL AREAS ARE RUNNING LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN MOS
SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING IN THE COLUMN
AS WELL.

FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...OUR WARM AIR ADVECTION "THUMP" WILL
ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS TO JUST REACH INTO THE WARNING CRITERIA
OVER ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AS WELL...THEREFORE THIS COUNTY HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE WARNINGS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
972 MB LOW REACHES POINTS JUST EAST OF PORTLAND BY LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE MOUNTAINS WILL STILL BE HAVING
ACCUMULATING SNOW AT THAT TIME...WHILE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
ATTEMPTS TO REENTER SOUTHERN AREAS. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST
THESE WRAP AROUND BANDS WILL CROSS CENTRAL AREAS...BUT ALSO HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE COAST.

MOST AREAS WILL MAX OUT IN THE 8 TO 12 INCH RANGE FOR SNOWFALL
WITH THIS LATEST STORM. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN ANY BANDED PRECIPITATION AND ALSO OVER THE NE FACING
HIGH TERRAIN. LESS SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE NEAR THE COAST.

AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH OF ICE MAY NOW OCCUR ALONG THE
COAST...WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT BUT
QUICKLY GIVES WAY TO AN UPSTREAM TROF THAT WILL BE DIGGING INTO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
UPPER TROF DEVELOPS A STRONG SFC LOW WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD,
BUT EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE DVLPG SFC LOW FOR LATE SAT AND INTO
SAT EVNG BY THE MODELS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. LATEST EURO
SUGGESTS IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FURTHER
EAST. BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN THE TROF EXITS WELL TO THE EAST
AND CLEARING AND COLDER TEMPS RETURN. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY BRINGING WITH IT A NICE DAY. THE NEXT
TROF APPROACHES ON TUES WITH AN ASSOC SFC LO THAT WILL PROBABLY
TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VLY BY WITH BRING SOME LGT SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION. MIDWEEK HIGH PRES RETURNS WITH A WARMER SWLY FLOW TO
DVLP LATE IN THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS TODAY AS SNOW SPREADS NORTHWARD. A PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
MVFR AMD POSSIBLY IFR CONDS IN LIGHT SNOW SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. VFR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
EXPECT WINDS TO REACH INTO THE GALE WARNING RANGE. THERE IS A LOW
POSSIBILITY OF STORM FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS EARLY TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
SCA CONDS PSBL LATE SAT THRU SUN AND AGAIN MON NIGHT AND TUE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ018-019-023-
024.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-020>022-025>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NHZ003>010-013-
014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.

$$
SCHWIBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

715 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST AND TOWARD CAPE COD
TODAY. SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. SNOW
WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY
OVER COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE CHANGING
BACK TO SNOW AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
BY...TRACKING FURTHER OUT TO SEA...ON SATURDAY. THIS SECOND LOW
THEN INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT
DRAWING MORE COLD AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDTIONS. SNOW IS ROCKETING
QUICKLY UP THE COASTLINE AND SHOULD HAVE OVERSPREAD COASTAL YORK
COUNTY BY 8 AM AND IN THE PORTLAND AREA BY 9 AM WHICH IS IN LINE
WITH THE NEW HRRR RUN. HAVE ADJUSTED THE 6 HOUR SNOW GRID HIGHER FOR
SOUTHERN NH AND PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST MAINE ENDING AT 1
PM...AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED UPWARDS FURTHER.

OTHERWISE...COLD AIR REMAINS INTACT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A COASTAL FRONT SHOULD BE FORMING
SHORTLY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE ENTIRE COASTLINE BY MID MORNING.

SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING INTO OUR REGION WHERE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS BEGIN AT 7 AM. THE NAM...AS ALWAYS IS
GANGBUSTERS WITH QPF WHICH APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE (ALTHOUGH THE 4
KM NAM IS VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING). HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUCH
DRIER. PREFER THE EURO WHICH IS A GOOD BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS.
THIS MODEL SOLUTION BRINGS 5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT...AS WARM
AIR WILL ENTER THIS REGION DUE TO A DRYSLOT ROTATING IN OVER THE
MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO ENTER
THE REGION ALOFT...BRINGING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO SOUTHERN
AREAS...AND EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING DOWN THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
WITH A NORTH WIND. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED THE MENTION OF RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AS...AFTER OUR COLD...RADITIONAL COOLING NIGHT
LAST NIGHT...ALL AREAS ARE RUNNING LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN MOS
SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING IN THE COLUMN
AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
972 MB LOW REACHES POINTS JUST EAST OF PORTLAND BY LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE MOUNTAINS WILL STILL BE HAVING
ACCUMULATING SNOW AT THAT TIME...WHILE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
ATTEMPTS TO REENTER SOUTHERN AREAS. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST
THESE WRAP AROUND BANDS WILL CROSS CENTRAL AREAS...BUT ALSO HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE COAST.

AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH OF ICE MAY NOW OCCUR ALONG THE
COAST...WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT BUT
QUICKLY GIVES WAY TO AN UPSTREAM TROF THAT WILL BE DIGGING INTO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
UPPER TROF DEVELOPS A STRONG SFC LOW WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD,
BUT EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE DVLPG SFC LOW FOR LATE SAT AND INTO
SAT EVNG BY THE MODELS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. LATEST EURO
SUGGESTS IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE FURTHER
EAST. BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN THE TROF EXITS WELL TO THE EAST
AND CLEARING AND COLDER TEMPS RETURN. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY BRINGING WITH IT A NICE DAY. THE NEXT
TROF APPROACHES ON TUES WITH AN ASSOC SFC LO THAT WILL PROBABLY
TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VLY BY WITH BRING SOME LGT SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION. MIDWEEK HIGH PRES RETURNS WITH A WARMER SWLY FLOW TO
DVLP LATE IN THE WEEK.

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS TODAY AS SNOW SPREADS NORTHWARD. A PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
MVFR AMD POSSIBLY IFR CONDS IN LIGHT SNOW SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. VFR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
EXPECT WINDS TO REACH INTO THE GALE WARNING RANGE. THERE IS A LOW
POSSIBILITY OF STORM FORCE GUSTS.

LONG TERM...
SCA CONDS PSBL LATE SAT THRU SUN AND AGAIN MON NIGHT AND TUE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ018-019-023-
024.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
MEZ007>009-012>014-020>022-025>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NHZ003>010-013-
014.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
NHZ001-002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.

$$
JC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1044 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH
TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY RETURN FRIDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SFC LOW HAS INTENSIFIED OFF THE NORFOLK COAST THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF STATES WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT TO THE
NORTH TODAY APPROACHING THE MID ATLANITC.

HEAVY SNOW HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE PAST 12 HOURS AS
THE SFC LOW APPROACHED THE MID ATLANTIC. WARM AIR WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW AND CHANGED THE SNOW IN SOUTH-CENTRAL MD AND DC TO A SLEET RAIN
MIX. FURTHER WEST SNOW...SLEET AND FZRA HAS BEEN REPORTED TO THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE BAND ACROSS LOUDOUN/FREDERICK MD/CARROLL. THIS
CHANGE HAS BEEN APPARENT ON THE CC PRODUCT OF DUAL POL. LIGHT
PRECIP WILL LEAD TO ONLY A GLAZE TO A TENTH INCH OF ICE
ACCUM. MOST OF THE STRONG LIFT AND MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS MOVED
NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA THAT
IS CO LOCATED WITH THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW. REPORTS UP TO 20 INCHES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED UNDER THIS BAND. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AND THE BAND LOCATED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN AND MOVE NORTHWARD
AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE ENTIRE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE A
SHORT BREAK OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW IS
UPON US LATER TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE AREA. NAM AND GFS
ARE BOTH SHOWING MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST. HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NW MD...WEST VIRGINIA AND ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS IS GOING TO MOVE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE SFC LOW AND
STRONG LIFT AND DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. HRRR AND WRF ALSO SHOW THIS ACTIVITY
CROSSING THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED BUT AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE MID ATLANTIC. MOST WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO COVER THE SECOND ROUND OF SNOW THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS PRECIP ENDS ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AROUND DC THE
WINTER WEATHER WARNING WILL DROP THIS AFTERNOON. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS ALREADY DROPPED IN FAR SOUTHERN MARYLAND. A DIFFERENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR I-95 AND EAST.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LAST WAVES OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED W/ THE PARENT UPPER LOW LATE
THU WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AND WELL OFF TO THE NE BY SUNRISE FRI.
WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE L20 FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...IT WILL
BE A GOOD START TO A RELATIVELY WARMER DAY ON FRI. SKIES WILL
LARGELY CLEAR OUT DURING THE MRNG HRS...W/ A BREEZY SFC WIND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STEADY SWLY FLOW WILL BE
A RELATIVELY WARMER WIND AND HELP TEMPS SLIDE UP INTO THE M-U30S
DURING THE AFTN HRS - AIDING IN MELTING OF SNOWFALL FROM THE
CURRENT EVENT.

CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY HOWEVER...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY SLIDES IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST - GATHERS UP SOME
MOISTURE AND PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.
GOOD CONSENSUS ON THIS FEATURE...SPREADING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY DAWN
SAT. MODEL TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AT ONSET
BUT ALL-SNOW POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS.

AFTER THIS LATEST UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...BRISK NW WINDS WILL BE LEFT IN ITS WAKE DESPITE CLEARING
SKIES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN ONLY APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK BOTH SAT
AND SUN...THOUGH CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RECENT ACTIVE PATTERN TAKE START TO QUIET DOWN A BIT HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS OF NOTE POSSIBLE
EVEN AS WE LOOK TO A BRIEF WARM-UP. AFTER THE FRI NIGHT/SAT
THROUGH PASSAGE...A MUCH WEAKER AND DRIER UPPER WAVE WILL SWING
THRU ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MERELY SWING ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH
OF UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE MTNS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA AND JUST REINFORCES COLDER AIR - PREVENTING US FROM
CRACKING THE FREEZING MARK FOR ANOTHER DAY.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE ON MONDAY W/ HIGHS PULLING BACK UP INTO THE
U30S/L40S BEFORE YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER A QUICK SPIN-UP JUST TO OUR WEST. THE EURO AND GFS
ARE ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT...SHOWING THE PARENT
LOW PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH - DRAGGING THE COLD FRONTAL REGION
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS TYPE OF PASSAGE WOULD ENSURE MORE OF A
WARMER REGIME THAN THE FRI NIGHT STORM SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WHAT
LITTLE QPF MAKES IT E OF THE MTNS WILL BE EITHER ALL RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS A BULK OF THE CWA. THE ATYPICAL EFFECT AFTER
THE SYSTEM`S PASSAGE WILL BE A WARM-UP HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME
HRS ON TUE - POST COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON TUE COULD NEAR THE 50 DEG
MARK...WHICH IS NEAR-AVG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE WARMEST
TEMPS SINCE THE START OF THE MONTH.

THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE EVEN WARMER AS A LARGE BERMUDA HIGH
SETS UP OFF THE ATLC COAST WHILE A STORM SYSTEM GEARS-UP OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS.

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A SFC LOW APPROACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC. SNOW WILL END AT MRB IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON. -SNPLRA WILL OCCUR AT IAD-
CHO-DCA-MTN-BWI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
REDUCING VSBYS AND CEILINGS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. NORTHERLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

SKIES CLEAR OUT ON FRI BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM...W/ LIGHT SW WINDS
BUT STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME MORE LIGHT PRECIP - MAINLY SNOW ON FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER ITS EXIT OFF THE
COAST FOR THE DAYTIME HRS SAT. BRISK 20-30KT WINDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATE EVE...THEN DROP INTO THRU MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S PASSAGE ON TUE THEN
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.MARINE...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO SMITH POINT AND FOR THE
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIME.

WELL AFTER THE EXIT OF THE CURRENT POTENT STORM SYSTEM...SCA CRIT
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL INTO FRI. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THEN
WILL BE AN EVERY-OTHER-DAY PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE
STRONGEST OF THESE WILL BE AN UPPER WAVE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT...USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLID SCA GUSTS FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL THEN DROP OFF FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF INCR ON TUE AS AN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
QUICKLY SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CAUSE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS TODAY AS A
COASTAL LOW PASSES BY TO THE EAST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
LEVELS WILL BE JUST UNDER MINOR TIDAL THRESHOLDS BUT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS THE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES TONIGHT IN STEP WITH DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR DCZ001.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501-
502.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR MDZ013-014-016>018.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ013-
014-016.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ003>007-
009>011.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ025>027-029-036>040-050-051-056-503-504.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR VAZ054-057.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ054-
057.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ028-030-031-
042-052-053-055-501-502.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050-
055-501>506.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-
536-538-539.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

1005 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SNOW TO AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 79 TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 10AM UPDATE...CONTINUE TO BUMP UP SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WV/MD. CONTINUE TO REACH SNOW RATES OF AN INCH AN
HOUR IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD RECEIVE AN
ADDITIONAL 6 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. HAVE LEFT
SNOW FORECASTS UNTOUCHED OUTSIDE THE WARNING AREA AND THE
FAYETTE/WESTMORELAND RIDGES. WESTERN EDGE OF SNOW HAVE PIVOTED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH OVER PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OVER THE LAST
THREE HOURS AS EXPECTED.

POST DAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADD A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE WRN
FLANK OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AFTER PRE DAWN REPORTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ALREADY IN THOSE AREAS. THOUGH MID/UPR DRY SLOT IS
ENCROACHING AND PRIMARY FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ZONE HAS SHIFTED
EWD ALREADY...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS
WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE WRAPS OVER THE REGION.

PREVIOUS...
DEFORMATION BAND OF HEAVY SNOW HAS MADE IT INTO
PRESTON...TUCKER...AND GARRETT COUNTIES THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING AN INCH AN HOUR AS THIS BAND MOVES
NORTHWARD. WITH SNOWFALL REPORTS ALREADY IN THE 3-4 INCH RANGE
OVER TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES...HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD STILL DECREASE RATES BRIEFLY
THIS MORNING...AS IS ALREADY BEING SEEN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE PRECIP ON RADAR OVER OUR CWA. SNOW HAS STRUGGLED TO GO MUCH
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE VERY TIP OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY YET THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MAKE IT TO PITTSBURGH.

DESPITE THE EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO
FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND SHOULD NOT FALL TOO
MUCH UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE TOWARD THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY MOISTURE
STARVED SO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES DUE TO THE
SERIES OF WAVES AND COLD ADVECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ULTIMATELY REINFORCING THE WARMING TREND.

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEGRADED CONDITIONS...INCLUDING IFR...WL MAINTAINED FOR ALL PORTS
EAST OF A FKL TO ZZV LINE TDA AS SNOW WRAPS OVR THE REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CROSSING MID LVL LOW PRES. NELY SFC WIND WL
FURTHER BACK TO THE NORTH AND SHOULD INCRS TO NR 10 KTS AS SFC LOW
MOVS UP THE EAST COAST.

IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED TNGT WITH EWD PROGRESS OF THAT
SYSTEM...THOUGH MVFR STRATOCU MAY LINGER INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK..../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ023-
031-073>076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ021-
022.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
041.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

740 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SNOW TO AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 79 TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
POST DAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADD A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE WRN
FLANK OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AFTER PRE DAWN REPORTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ALREADY IN THOSE AREAS. THOUGH MID/UPR DRY SLOT IS
ENCROACHING AND PRIMARY FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ZONE HAS SHIFTED
EWD ALREADY...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS
WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE WRAPS OVER THE REGION.

DESPITE THE EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO
FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND SHOULD NOT FALL TOO
MUCH UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE TOWARD THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY MOISTURE
STARVED SO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES DUE TO THE
SERIES OF WAVES AND COLD ADVECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ULTIMATELY REINFORCING THE WARMING TREND.

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEGRADED CONDITIONS...INCLUDING IFR...WL MAINTAINED FOR ALL PORTS
EAST OF A FKL TO ZZV LINE TDA AS SNOW WRAPS OVR THE REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CROSSING MID LVL LOW PRES. NELY SFC WIND WL
FURTHER BACK TO THE NORTH AND SHOULD INCRS TO NR 10 KTS AS SFC LOW
MOVS UP THE EAST COAST.

IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED TNGT WITH EWD PROGRESS OF THAT
SYSTEM...THOUGH MVFR STRATOCU MAY LINGER INTO THE NGT.

.OUTLOOK..../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

617 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SNOW TO AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 79 TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW FRIDAY.

DESPITE THE EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO
FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND SHOULD NOT FALL TOO
MUCH UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE TOWARD THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY MOISTURE
STARVED SO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES DUE TO THE
SERIES OF WAVES AND COLD ADVECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ULTIMATELY REINFORCING THE WARMING TREND.

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW BANDS SETTING UP FROM MGW NORTH TO LBE AND IDI. SNOW BANDS
WILL STAY QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH ABT 15Z AS THE MAIN LOW PUSHES UP
THE EAST COAST TODAY. IFR SNOW EXPECTED IN MGW AND LBE THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY. SEVERAL OTHER SITES WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
CIGS...AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF SNOW BAND SLOWLY ENCROACHES E TO W
BEFORE RETREATING AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. FKL/ZZV WILL STAY VFR AS THE SYSTEM
HOLDS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH MID- MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY BACKING TO
WESTERLY THURS NIGHT. WIND SPEED WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KTS THROUGHOUT.

.OUTLOOK..../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

838 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW IS SPREADING NORTH TODAY INTO NEW YORK. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT THEN END LATE TONIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
830 AM UPDATE...
SNOW PUSHING NWD INTO CNTRL NY THIS MRNG...WITH +SN LIKELY OVER
THE WRN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS LATE THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN. XPCT
LGT ACCUMS ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TDA. AS THIS 1ST WAVE MOVS
OUT...UPR LVL LOW WILL MOV INTO THE RGN THIS EVNG TAKING ON A NEG
TILT. RUC13 DATA VERY INTERESTING FOR TNGT...ACTUALLY SHOWING A
CLOSED 700 MB CIRCULATION OVER ERN PA THIS EVNG...ALONG WITH DVLPG
N/S FGEN AXIS/DEF ZONE ACRS CNTRL/ERN ZONES AND OTHER SIGS VERY
SUGGESTIVE OF +SN ACRS THIS AREA TNGT. ONLY MINOR TWEEKS TO NEAR
TERM FCST. PREV BLO...

7AM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES TO THE ONSET. BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SOUTH WHICH WERE LOWERED. DESPITE SNOWING FOR
HOURS THERE ASOSES REPORTING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. INCH THE
HIGHEST SNOW REPORT SO FAR. DRY AND COLD AIR STILL AT SURFACE IN
THE NORTH.

4 AM UPDATE...

CONTINUING WITH THE SAME WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AS DAY SHIFT
ISSUED WED AFTN.

LIGHT SNOW ON TRACK NORTH INTO NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO COVER THE REST OF THE CWA BY 3 PM. SNOW
WILL END FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT. THE SNOW AHEAD OF A NOREASTER
BOMBING OFF OF NC NOW. THIS WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE ALONG THE COAST.
THE LOW WILL BE OVER CAPE COD AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVELS
HAVE A CLOSED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE SFC LOW.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA. IN OUR AREA PRECIP
WILL BE ALL SNOW. THE WETTEST SNOW WILL BE IN THE FAR SE WHERE 850
TEMPS RISE -2C. ENOUGH TO LOWER RATIOS BUT STILL PLENTY OF QPF FOR
WARNING AMOUNTS. MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF OF ATLANTIC SO THAT SE
CWA WILL HAVE QPF OF HALF TO ONE INCH. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA SO THE FAR WEST WILL HAVE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID AND
ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

ON THE BACK SIDE TONIGHT QUESTIONS ON HOW STRONG THE WRAPAROUND
WILL BE AND WHERE. THE BIGGEST DUMPER OF SNOW WAS THE EURO IN THAT
RESPECT BUT IT HAS BACKED OFF SOME. BOTH IN QUANTITY AND DURATION.
EITHER WAY WITH THESE STORMS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL VARY WIDELY.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

FRIDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE NOREASTER PULLING OUT AND A
CLIPPER COMING IN BEHIND IT WITH THE COLD AIR. FIRST LOW GETS
ABSORBED BY THE BOMB OVER SE CANADA. LIGHT SNOW MOSTLY FOR UPSTATE
NY. A SECOND LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND BOMB OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW INTO PA
BUT THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA.

WITH THE FIRST LOW FRIDAY MORNING LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW.
WITH THE MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES AND THE FALLING UL HEIGHTS LAKE
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. LL FLOW SHIFTS
TO THE W FRI AFTN SO THE SNOW SHIFTS TO MOSTLY ONEIDA. COLDER AIR
COMES IN SAT AND SAT NGT WHILE FLOW GOES BACK TO NW. AGAIN LIGHT
AMOUNTS EXPECTED. DECENT DENDRITE ZONE OF 3 TO 4 KT FEET IN THE
MOIST LAYER WHICH EXTENDS TO 8K FT. COLD AIR ONLY -12C WHICH IS
MARGINAL WITH THE COLD LAKE SFC TEMPS. LAKE EFFECT BUT WEAK AND
MULTIBANDS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...COLD NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY MORNING MAY BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
FOLLOWED BY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AS SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. HIGH PRES SUN NGT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MINS WELL
BLO ZERO. THIS HIGH MOVS TO THE E CST BY MONDAY EVNG AS A CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE ERN GTLAKES. THIS WILL BRING MORE PCPN
TO THE RGN MON NGT INTO TUE....SNOW TRANSITIONING TO A RA/SN MIX
OR PLAIN RAIN ON TUE. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY AND MILDER WITH SFC
HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC PROVING A SOUTHWEST MODERATING
FLOW.

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 12Z AT KAVP, 13Z-16Z AT
KBGM/KELM/KITH AND 18Z-20Z AT KRME/KSYR. AT KAVP, AFTER 16Z MODERATE
SNOW WITH CONDITIONS BELOW ALT MINS WILL PERSIST ALL DAY. ACROSS
THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
BELOW ALT MINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST RESTRICTIVE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KBGM. THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS AT KRME/KSYR
MAY FALL BELOW ALT MINS. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 03Z-09Z TO MVFR AND SNOW SHOWERS.

E/SE WINDS AROUND 8-12 KNOTS BECOMING N/NE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR SYR/RME...VFR ELSEWHERE.

FRI NGT...MVFR/IFR FROM -SN AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES.

SAT/SUN...RESTRICTIONS IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT/MON...VFR.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-
044-047-048-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ045-046-056-
057-062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-017-
018-024-025-036-037-044-055.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

432 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

UPPER WAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA TODAY. SEEING SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN WESTERLY AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WITH A STRONG PUSH
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 30 TO 40 KTS AT 925 MB...WOULD EXPECT
WINDS TO PICK UP AGAIN BEHIND THIS FRONT BY MID MORNING...STRONGEST
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. THINKING WE SEE 20 TO 35 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH. THUS THINK AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...SO
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL PROBABLY SEE
SOME BLOWING SNOW INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AS WELL LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT NOT SURE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY...THUS WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW AND LET DAY SHIFT
MONITOR TRENDS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE ABATEMENT OF THE THE BLOWING SNOW. WILL SEE
MORNING HIGHS NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AREAS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL SEE HIGHS
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON....WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD AIR PUSH
CONTINUES TO LOOK STRONGER ON NEW MODEL RUNS. THUS MAIN CHANGE WAS
TO SPEED UP THE DROPPING TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THUS
LEADING TO COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES. FAVORED A BLEND OF THE
GFS...ECMWF AND GEM REGIONAL FOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

OTHER WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE OUR NEXT CLIPPER DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT. IT IS A PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH
GOOD PV ADVECTION...AND LARGE SCALE FORCING IN THE LEFT EXIT OF AN
UPPER JET. SIMILAR LARGE SCALE FORCING AS TO WHAT WE SAW THE OTHER
NIGHT. THE DIFFERENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE THE MID LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THUS THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
BE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...WITH THE BAND OF SNOW IN A WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING STATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
WILL AGAIN HAVE TO BE OVERCOME...BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE
STILL SEEMS LIKE A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY. BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS DID NUDGE THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE NORTH SOME AND
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING...BUT OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED
GOOD. GIVEN THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE FRONT THINKING AMOUNTS WILL
PROBABLY END UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO 1 INCH OR LESS
OVER A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN OUR
NORTHWEST AREAS THIS TIME AROUND...IN THE HURON VICINITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE EARLY MORNING MAINLY
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...AND DID
STRETCH A SLIGHT CHANCE BACK A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD ALONG THE
TIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BACK
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. COOLER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY BEHIND EXITING WAVE...WITH
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA BY EVENING. INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS
WITHIN THIS ZONE AND FOR THE MOMENT HAVE RESISTED TEMPTATION TO
PERSIST A FEW FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY LATE AS
SOME WEAK LIFT TOWARD TOP OF TRAPPED MOISTURE LAYER DEVELOPS WITH
START OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.

FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE AND STRONG JET STREAK WILL BEGIN
TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
ZONE IN PLACE...AND WILL INCREASINGLY BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD TOWARD I 29. WHILE A MAJORITY
OF THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE CONTAINED IN A COOLER ZONE
EITHER BY AIR MASS OR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...THE WESTERN SECTION OF
ANY PRECIP AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR
MELTING AND ALLOW A SMALL THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AS FAR EAST AS
AREAS TOWARD I 29 BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPS AGAIN WILL
TREND NON DIURNAL FOR MOST...PERHAPS WARMING TO NEAR FREEZING IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
ENGAGE SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND SHOULD REMAIN COOL ENOUGH WITH A
STRONG FRONTAL CIRCULATION TO MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FURTHER EAST. MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE PRECIP ALL BUT DONE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLING WRAPPING SOUTHWARD BEHIND CLIPPER
COULD MAINTAIN A LIGHT SNOW THREAT FOR FAR NORTHEAST AREAS UNTIL
EARLY EVENING.

YET ANOTHER WEAK COOLER PUSH WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...BUT THIS ONE WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY EAST...AND WILL
GIVE WAY EVEN QUICKER TO A STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL START DIGGING IN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING AND
WHOLE TROUGH APPEARS SOMEWHAT SPLITTY FROM A PV PERSPECTIVE...
SHOULD BE ENOUGH IN THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE FOR FOCUSED LIFT TO
SATURATE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BEST THREAT FOR PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH STRONGER PV/FRONTAL INTERACTION. PRECIP
TYPE IS DIFFICULT WITH DRY AIR AGAIN LEAVING ROOM FOR SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...BUT LIGHT RATES ARE LIKELY TO MAKE EVEN
THIS SOMEWHAT AN INEFFECTIVE PROCESS. SHOULD SEE SOME SPOTTY FZRA
OR SLEET FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT TEMPS TO THE WEST SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE TWO LATTER DAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE
TOUGH IN THAT ONCE SNOW MELTS AWAY...OR FLOW BECOMES OFF AREAS
THAT ARE SNOW FREE...TEMPS FROM MIXING OF MODELS WHICH MAY ALSO BE
IMPACTED BY SOME DEGREE BY CURRENT SNOW COVER FIELDS. DISTRIBUTION
OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FAVORS FOLLOWING THE WARMER SIDE OF
SOLUTIONS...AND EVEN THE SLIDING TOWARD THE 90TH PERCENTILE
SOLUTION COMES UP SHORT OF 925 HPA MIXING. SHOULD REMAIN A DRY
PERIOD... BUT SEVERAL MODELS HINT THAT INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BY WEDNESDAY SNEAKING INTO THE EASTERN CWA MAY THREATEN A
FEW MORE LOWER CLOUDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ040.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ071-
072-080-081-089-090-097.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

555 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ARE WITH THE
SNOW THIS MORNING TO GO ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. A BAND OF SNOW
IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND 2SM WHEN THE SNOW FALLS. THE BACK EDGE OF IT IS ALONG A
WARM FRONT THAT IS JUST WEST OF RST RIGHT NOW. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END AND THE WARM FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH AND BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME FAIRLY
GUSTY AT 25 TO 30KTS. CONDITIONS MAY GO VFR FOR A PERIOD THIS
MORNING...THOUGH SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW COULD KEEP VIS DOWN
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT RST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH LATER
THIS MORNING AND BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS TO THE EAST.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

105 PM PST Thu Feb 13 2014

.Synopsis...
Unsettled weather is expected into next week. A fetch of Pacific
moisture will bring showers to the area through tomorrow, mainly
north of I-80. More widespread precipitation is expected with another
system this weekend. A colder storm is possible next Tuesday into
Wednesday.

A broad and extensive tap of moisture off the East Pacific with
near zonal flow continues as seen on water vapor satellite
imagery this morning. The fetch extends from around Hawaii and
reaches the West Coast centered at the CA/OR border. While fairly
impressive- looking on water vapor, the blended total PWAT product
shows only around 1" PWAT reaching the NorCal coast, with about
1.2" further offshore. The NAM and GFS were a little overdone on
their PWAT estimates early today, but it looks like they are now
in line with the satellite estimates. Area radars show an area of
showers which has moved inland within the last few hours.
Expecting rain to be mostly limited to the higher terrain today
given the due westerly flow shadowing the Valley, although the
latest HRRR runs have been indicating some convective precip in
the Sac Valley this afternoon from around Yuba City northward.
Have handled this in the latest forecast update with a mention of
scattered showers. Can`t rule out a few isolated showers in the
Sac Metro area, though it doesn`t appear very likely at this
point. Recent aircraft soundings show that the freezing level is
over 9000 feet this morning, so most Sierra locations will see
only rain showers.

Have updated the forecast for today/tonight to bring in line with
latest model trends. For conditions beyond today/tonight, see the previous
discussion below. -DVC

.Previous discussion...issued 506 AM PST...

Wet, unsettled weather through this week as the moisture plume
from Hawaii continues to take aim at NorCal. Mountains of Shasta
County will get the brunt of rain totals peaking between 1-2
inches through Friday night. Rain over the Coastal range and
Sierra will range from around a quarter of an inch up to a half
inch. Rain totals around Redding and Red Bluff region will range
from several hundredths of an inch up to a quarter of an inch. Any
rain totals between Red Bluff and the Sac Metro region will likely
only be a few hundredths. Some patchy fog may develop this morning
south of the Sac Metro region but is not expected to be dense or
widespread due to the increasing cloud cover.

Another system moves in this weekend that is forecast to bring
precipitation farther southward as a trough digs towards
Central CA. This time, widespread wetter conditions are expected
across the higher terrain (Coastal, Northern, Sierra). This storm
will bring some colder air aloft allowing snow levels to dip down
towards 5000 ft by early Sunday morning but most of the snow
accumulation will occur above 6000 feet. Accumulations will range
from a few inches up to almost a foot at the highest elevations
across the Sierra. Rain totals below 5000 ft will range from a few
hundredths in the valley up to 1-1.5 inches across foothills and
slopes. Daytime highs will be slightly cooler than Thursday &
Friday while overnight lows remain fairly similar. JBB

.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Monday looks mainly dry as upper ridge over the west coast begins
to fatten. Daytime highs Monday should come in a few degrees above
normal under a variable high cloudiness as indicated by GFS upper
level RH progs. Upper ridge fattens on Tuesday with all models
indicating Pacific frontal system moving into Pacific northwest
and Norcal Tuesday afternoon. GFS Predicted moisture feed with
this cooler system is moderate at about .8 inches TPW. ECMWF
indicating a somewhat wetter system with higher QPF. Moist Pacific
flow will keep precipitation threat going for most of the CWA into
Wednesday. Snow levels will continue to fall Wednesday as colder
air filters into the region. Some Sierra foothills could see
snowfall as snow levels lower below 3000 feet Wednesday afternoon.
QPF values continue to vary between models but with low snow
levels...mountain and foothill impacts are likely. Models vary
going into the end of next week. All extended models indicating
northwest flow aloft with GFS and ECMWF modeling a shortwave
dropping out of western Canada for a continued shot of low
elevation snow showers into Thursday.

.Aviation...

Pacific frontal band moving through Pacific northwest and NORCAL
with light precipitation moving slowly southward. For the
Sacramento valley...MVFR local IFR cigs and visibility with light
rain and fog. IFR cigs over surrounding mountains. VFR Northern
San Joaquin valley and surrounding mountains except MVFR and local
IFR in the valley in fog through about 20z. South winds to 15
knots with gusts to 45 knot over higher Sierra elevations.

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

1014 AM MST THU FEB 13 2014

.UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...WEB CAMS AND RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...CONCENTRATED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
OF GRAND COUNTY. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. WINDS WERE ALSO GUSTY ACROSS
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS. LATEST WATER VAPOR
LOOPS INDICATING SOME DRYING MOVING INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO WITH
ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO UTAH. SO THERE MAY SOME
DECREASE IN THE SNOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRYING MOVES
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHEN THE MOISTURE INCREASES. THERE IS SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION WHICH WILL OFFSET THE DECENT LAPSE RATES AND COULD LIMIT
THE SNOW ACCUMULATION. STILL...MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
3 TO 7 INCHES BY 06Z WITH GUSTY WINDS PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ONGOING ADVISORY FOR MOUNTAINS
STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE. SNOW TO DECREASE AS A RESULT.
LATEST RAP AND HRRR INDICATE WIND GUSTS INCREASING BY 18Z ALONG
FOOTHILLS AS SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES. THUS...COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT
DECREASES THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING WINDS. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
APPROACHING WEAK FRONT AND JET ACROSS PLAINS.

.AVIATION...CURRENT TAF TRENDS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AIRPORTS...THOUGH A BIT MORE
SOUTHWEST AT KDEN AND KAPA. STILL EXPECTING A SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST BY 21Z AS THE NORTHWESTERLIES MIX TO THE SURFACE. SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KDEN AND KAPA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KBJC. WEAK DRY FRONT STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 08Z WITH THE NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING A BIT MORE NORTHERLY. VFR TO CONTINUE WITH CEILINGS
ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM MST THU FEB 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...PACIFIC MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO DROP
SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. SEEMS AS MOUNTAIN TOP
FLOW HAS SWITCHED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION EARLIER WHICH HAS
ALLOWED THE MOUNTAINS OF SUMMIT...PARK...GILPIN AND CLEAR CREEK
COUNTIES TO SEE HEAVIER SNOW EARLIER. THEREFORE HAVE MOVED UP THE
TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO START NOW. EXPECT ANOTHER
5 TO 10 INCHES TO FALL TODAY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS AND UP TO A
COUPLE INCHES OVER THE HIGH VALLEYS AND UPPER FOOTHILLS. THESE
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE TOP END HOWEVER AS WARM
ADVECTION WILL DECREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECT TO WARM INTO THE 30S WITH HIGH VALLEYS
SEEING UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING TONIGHT
AS A 170 KT JET ALONG THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVES EAST
AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. BUT STILL WILL
SEE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

ANOTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAST CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN WE HAVE
TODAY IS TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER THE FOOTHILLS EARLY.
WINDS PEAKED AROUND MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE
70 TO 80 MPH RANGE...AND HAVE SINCE DECREASED. WITH SURFACE
GRADIENTS DECREASING AND DOWNWARD QG MOTION DECREASING...SEE NO
OTHER MECHANISM TO PUSH THE SPEEDS BACK TO UP TO CRITERIA. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 65 MPH RANGE THIS MORNING
HOWEVER.

THESE GUSTY WINDS HAVE MODERATED TEMPERATURES IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY. MAX
READINGS IN THE 50S WITH READINGS CLOSE TO 60 NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.
AS THE 170 KT JET NEARS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE THIS
EVENING...THIS MAY HELP TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS...BEGINNING AS RAIN THEN MIXING WITH SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS THE AIRMASS WARMS AND MIXES...EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY
WEST WINDS SPREAD OVER THE PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO TURN
WINDS MORE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER THREAT OF HIGH WINDS TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO OCCUR IN EARNEST FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN THE FOOTHILLS...LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE MAINLY A BRUTE FORCE
WIND EVENT WITH 50-60 KT CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW STARTING LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER IS SUGGESTED TO BE
RATHER LIMITED...BUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION MODELS MAY
BE UNDERDOING THIS A BIT. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS ARE SOMEWHAT LACKING
AS WELL SO NOT TOO CONCERNED AT THIS POINT THAT HIGH WINDS WILL
SPREAD ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS...BUT THEY WILL STILL BECOME GUSTY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN TYPICAL CHINOOK FASHION.
THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
FOOTHILLS ONLY.

WITH REGARD TO MOUNTAIN SNOW...DECENT DRYING AND STABILIZATION
OCCURS FRIDAY MORNING SO ONLY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE MODEL
DISCREPANCY OCCURS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF. BELIEVE
THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY OVERDOING THE QPF IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN INCREASED STABILITY IN WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN...WHILE THE GFS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDOING IT AND ECMWF
MIGHT BE A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW. AT THIS
TIME...CONCEPTUAL MODEL WOULD SUGGEST THIS WOULD BE A RELATIVELY
HIGH POP/LOW QPF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE
INCREASED STABILITY AND WARM ADVECTION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE HINTS
THAT LAPSE RATES IMPROVE A BIT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
NOT SURE WHAT THIS IS COMING FROM SINCE WE ARE IN A WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN SO WILL MAINTAIN THE THOUGHT OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AT THIS POINT. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS BELOW 8500 FEET GIVEN TEMP PROFILES.

TEMPERATURE WISE...WILL WARM UP THE MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WITH CLOUDS AND LITTLE/NO INVERSIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE PLAINS...CANT GET TOO CARRIED
AWAY WITH HIGH TEMPS YET SINCE FRIDAY WILL BE POST FRONTAL...AND
YET ANOTHER WEAK SURGE POSSIBLE SATURDAY PER THE ECWMF. ON
SUNDAY...FULL EFFECTS OF RIDGING AND WARMING ARE EXPECTED WITH
READINGS PUSHING INTO THE 60S ON THE PLAINS.

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD BUT BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW FROM LATE IN THE DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
SHORT BUT MODERATELY INTENSE PERIOD OF SNOW AND STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS.

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED ALL AREAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH BKN-SCT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO GO TO A MORE DRAINAGE PATTERN THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN RETURN TO THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND TO TURN THE WESTERLY WINDS TO A
NORTHWEST TO NORTH DIRECTION.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR COZ035-036.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ031-
033-034.

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...D-L

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

1001 AM MST THU FEB 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST THU FEB 13 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE MESSY. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS AT
LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 7000-7500
FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING TO AROUND 5000 FT TONIGHT. SO
FOR THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL VALLEYS A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS AFTERNOON
TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW OVERNIGHT.

THE 12Z NAM AND RAP SHOW A FINGER OF THE JET PROVIDING SOME
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE FLATTOPS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SO SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE GREATER THERE THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.

NORTHERN COLORADO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON
FRIDAY BUT NOT END. ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 7 INCHES PRODUCED BY THE NAM FOR FRI-
FRI NIGHT SEEMS UNLIKELY AS 700MB CLIMB TO -1C.

FOR ALL MTNS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH 700-600MB WINDS PROGGED TO REMAIN 40-50KTS
NORTH/30-40KTS SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MST THU FEB 13 2014

STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE TOP OF A BROAD/FLAT RIDGE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA/BAJA COAST. THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THIS MOIST FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. HOWEVER OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS STREAM.

THE STRONG WESTERLIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAM WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MORE OR LESS TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES. WHILE THE CORE OF THIS JET STREAM WILL ALSO REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH...SOME JET ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN BORDER. THEREFORE OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
SOME LET-UP ON FRIDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND LET THE PRESENT
HIGHLIGHTS RIDE. WHILE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THESE MOUNTAINS...IT WILL DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AS WE BECOME A LITTLE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE BROAD
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER EXPOSED TERRAIN. THE STRONGEST
WINDS LOOK TO BE THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHER AREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS...BUT AT TIMES
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER
NORTH AND CENTRAL VALLEYS. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...SO
PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IN THESE
HIGHER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SINCE
THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM IS OROGRAPHICS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
VALLEY PRECIPITATION. ALSO TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERY WARM
TONIGHT MOST AREAS...SO OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE SAN JUANS MAY ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE MUCH MORE SPOTTY THERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MST THU FEB 13 2014

SNOW BEGINS AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS DEEP PACIFIC MOVES THROUGH A RIDGE TO THE WEST...THEN
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY EVENING. LIFT PRIMARILY OROGRAPHIC DURING
THIS PERIOD...THOUGH A COUPLE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES WILL BRING
PERIODS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL. MODELS STRUGGLE WITH TIMING OF THESE
WEAK FAST MOVING FEATURES EVEN IN THE EARLY PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST SO WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO PIN DOWN A SPECIFIC PERIOD FOR
THEIR PASSAGE. WAA WILL HINDER ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH NAM SUGGESTS
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW POSSIBLE FOR ZONES 4 AND 13 DURING THIS
PERIOD.

FLAT RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR A
PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BOTH EC AND GFS WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO AGAIN FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS INDICATED IN MODEL GUIDANCE.

DRY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...EC AND GFS OUT OF PHASE BY THIS TIME WITH GFS
SHALLOWER AND FASTER THAN THE EC. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL LEAVE
BLENDED FORECAST ALONE UNTIL MODEL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM USHERS COOLER AIR INTO THE
NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WEEK LOOKS TO
RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER WHICH IS A BIT CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST THU FEB 13 2014

MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL
BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED EAST OF A LINE FROM KCAG SOUTH TO KTEX.
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TO
KHDN...KSBS...KEGE...AND KASE IN SN OR SN/RA THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. FRIDAY MTN OBSCURATIONS AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT BUT PERIODS OF BRIEF MVFR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
FOUR FAVORED TAF SITES LISTED ABOVE.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT COZ004-013.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT COZ010.

UT...NONE.

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...JOE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

433 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS POWERFUL STORM WILL
BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING...BUT BRISK CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM
WARNINGS...

AS OF 433 PM EST...HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
UPGRADED TO THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOONTIME TOMORROW.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALL OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...EASTERN CATSKILLS...HELDERBERGS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...
TACONICS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AN IMPRESSIVE MESOSCALE SNOWBAND CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NRN CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN
TACONICS...SARATOGA AND SRN VT IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SOME
SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR WERE REPORTED WITH LARGE
AGGREGATING SNOWFLAKES UP TO SILVER DOLLAR SIZE AT THE NWS AT
ALBANY OFFICE BTWN 200 PM AND 300 PM.

THE NOR`EASTER IS JUST EAST OF SRN NJ AT 2000 UTC AND IS 989 HPA
BASED ON THE RUC AND ANALYSIS...AND THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS ON THE
ORDER OF 8-10+ HPA/3 HRS ARE NOW OVER CT/RI/ERN MA. THE LATEST
GFS/NAM/ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS THE IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE TRACKING A
LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS SHIFT HAVING THE CYCLONE MOVE
OVER RI AND ERN MA WILL ALLOW THE HEAVY SNOWBAND ON THE NW SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM IMPACT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS FAR WEST AS
THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SRN DACKS NOW.

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN DISTINCT DRY SLOT
MOVING ALONG EAST COAST INTO NJ AND PARTS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PCPN TO LIGHTEN IN INTENSITY WITH SOME SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN TACONICS
...SRN-CNTRL BERKS AND NW CT. THE MID LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A POSSIBLE LOSS OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE CLOUDS...RESULTING IN THE
MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR A SHORT-PERIOD OF TIME.

HOWEVER...THE H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NC/VA IS
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL CAPTURE THE SFC CYCLONE...AND ALLOW VERY HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO RETURN TONIGHT. OUR CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR A
NORTH TO SOUTH OR SLIGHTLY N/NW TO S/SE ORIENTED MESOSCALE
SNOWBAND TO HIT MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

BASED ON CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA THESE MESOSCALE SNOWBANDS ARE
VERY LIKELY WITH THE H700 CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING FROM ERN
PA/NJ/DELMARVA REGION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z/FRI.
ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW IS WHERE A SIGNIFICANT PIVOTING
MESOSCALE SNOWBAND IS LIKELY TO SET UP. ALSO...THE LEFT FRONT QUAD
OR LEFT EXIT REGION REGION OF 130-140+ KT JET STREAK WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH STRONG OMEGA/UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

A QUICK CHECK OF CROSS-SECTIONS DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM THE
NAM AND GFS TONIGHT SHOW STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES WITH
STEEPLY SLOPED FGEN BENEATH NEGATIVE EPV /AT 400-500 HPA/ BTWN 00Z-
06Z WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE SYSTEM...AND THE OPTIMAL DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE /-10C TO -16C/ INTERSECTS THIS AREA OF STRONG FGEN AND OMEGA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SOME HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3
INCHES LOOK LIKELY. THE STRONG MESOSCALE BANDING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER IN THE HEAVIER SNOW /THUNDER SNOW !/. SOME CG LTG
STRIKES CONTINUE OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOWS A LARGE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING
UTILIZED FOR THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. PWAT ANOMALIES ARE 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ON TOP OF WHAT
HAS ALREADY FALLEN.

OVERALL...THE TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
WITH 14 TO 18 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AND THE NRN CATSKILLS SOUTH AND EAST EXCEPT FOR SRN
LITCHFIELD AND ERN WINDHAM CTY WHERE 10-14 INCHES IS LIKELY. THE
MIXED PCPN MAY KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS LOWER IN PARTS OF NW CT. SNOW
TOTALS OF 18-24" FOR THE SRN GREENS...PART OF THE BERKSHIRES...AND
THE ERN CATSKILLS.

THE WRN-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND
THE SRN DACKS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE 8 TO 14 INCHES.

BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
DEEPENS AND INTENSIFIES TO AROUND 975 HPA IN THE GULF OF MAINE. N
TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH WILL
BE COMMON. SOME OF THE GUSTS MAY NOT MIX TO THE SFC TONIGHT DUE
TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...AND THE HEAVY PCPN.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 10-13:1 HAVE BEEN USED FOR THE ENTIRE
EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE WETTER SNOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE PCPN WILL MIX FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 6-8:1 WERE USED EARLY
TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
ANY ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SRN BERKS/SRN TACONICS/NW CT WITH A COATING TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE NOR`EASTER MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA BY THE EARLY PM WITH DEFORMATION SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY NOONTIME. THE WARNING GOES FOR HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...AS MOISTURE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY BE
UTILIZED. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN GREEN MTNS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND H850 TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE -6C TO -8C RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M30S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...POSSIBLY SOME U30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND MID AND
UPPER 20S OVER THE MTNS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...WITH A NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. IT APPEARS THESE
SHORT-WAVES WILL NOT PHASE TOGETHER UNTIL NEAR THE DELMARVA
REGION...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TURNS NEGATIVE. SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAY SPREAD INTO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SOME CHC POPS HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO FORECAST. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS AND L20S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SUBSEQUENT COASTAL WAVE BASED ON THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM APPEARS IT WILL DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT IT
WILL HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT...AND HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE ADDED TO THE FCST
AREA FOR SATURDAY. SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE.
THE COASTAL WAVE PASSES WELL EAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. SOME LAKE EFFECT AND WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER AGAIN. AFTER MAX TEMPS IN THE M20S TO L30S...LOWS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS /EXCEPT SOME BELOW
ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AS A STRONGER SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
AWAY THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCT SNOW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH FAIR AND DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS AROUND ZERO TO AROUND 12 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS MAY CONTINUE STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILL READINGS TO REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S.

A FAST MOVING BUT RELATIVELY MOIST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
NY STATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF IT...MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PCPN TYPE.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 20. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND IT MAY KEEP SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S AS THE AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.

THE RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
20S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE TERMINALS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING
NOR`EASTER THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

SNOW INTENSITY WILL GENERALLY BE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM KPSF-KPOU. THIS EVENING THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AS THE
NOR`EASTER MOVES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY LIFR/IFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT. OCCASIONAL VLIFR VSBYS IN HEAVY
SNOW ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM KALB-KPSF-KPOU AND
POSSIBLY EVEN KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
THE STORM PULLS AWAY FROM AROUND 10Z-13Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BY MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO AROUND
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT AT KALB/KPSF FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY LIKELY SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN VT...AND NRN CATSKILLS SOUTH AND EAST.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM A
WIDESPREAD INCH TO INCH AND AN HALF OVER THE HSA...EXCEPT HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH OVER THE WRN DACKS AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE INTIALLY A SNOW...POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX EVENT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ039>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1147 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. LATER FRIDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL
SWING THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE DRY SLOT IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO OUR CWA. ITS MORE OBVIOUS ON
THE LAPS SOUNDINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. SO FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER HALF OF OUR CWA MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET WHERE
SFC TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING (AROUND I95 SOUTHEAST), AND A LIGHTER
WINTRY MIX WEST OF PHILADELPHIA.

IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA, THE HRRR PASSES THE HEAVY SNOW
BAND THRU OUR CWA BY ABOUT 18Z-19Z, WITH LIGHTER SNOW (POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SLEET) CONTINUING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

NO BIG CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. WRONGLY CONCLUDED THAT THE PCPN
INDUCED INVERSION WOULD KEEP STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING NEAR THE
COAST. LATEST MESONET SITES ARE SHOWING THAT THE PEAK GRADIENT
PERIOD HAS PASSED.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE ENDING TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLIP FARTHER
AWAY...NOW INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FAR NE. THE DEFORMATION
ZONE SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF DECENT
ACCUMS ACROSS NJ/ERN PA TONIGHT. THE ENDING TIMES OF THE WSW FLAGS
MAY BE ADJUSTED LATER...WHEN THE TIMING BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
GUSTY N/NW WINDS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S...LOW
20S NORTH...MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WAS NOT CHANGED OVERNIGHT...THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

FRIDAY: THE MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL BE DEPARTING OUR REGION AND
WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE STORM. LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE NORTH FOR
ANY LINGERING MORNING PRECIPITATION. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE STORM WITH 850 MB TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH
BELOW ZERO. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES DO STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO
RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30`S. DID GO COLDER THAN MEX/MOS
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SNOW COVER AND SOME MORNING CLOUDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: WE HAVE YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A FRESH SHOT OF MID-
LEVEL COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE
LONGER TO COOL OFF AND MAY STAY RATHER STEADY SATURDAY WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS MEANS ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN SOUTH. THE 12Z GFS
ALONG WITH THE CMC ARE STARTING TO FOCUS ON A SHORTWAVE BEING A
BIT STRONGER FRIDAY OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS
GOES WITH THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR A FEW RUNS
NOW. THE 15Z SREF IS NOT YET PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE BUT WPC
AND THE AFTERNOON MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDE A NICE FEEL FOR HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. OVERALL THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OF
SNOW TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILADELPHIA WITH UNDER AN INCH TO
THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING MAY LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS
SATURDAY MORNING. WENT MORE TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND THE ECMWF SUITE
FOR TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD, MEX A LITTLE TO WARM.

SATURDAY NIGHT THOROUGH MONDAY: THIS IS ANOTHER COLD LOOKING
PERIOD. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DIVE TO AROUND -10C WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING, WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY WILL GO MORE TOWARD
TO THE ECMWF SUITE FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WHICH MATCHES UP
WELL WITH WPC. MODELING HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN A BRINGING A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IN THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS WELL WHICH
MAY INCREASE CLOUDS WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
FOCUSED ACROSS THE DELMARVA. ONCE AGAIN THE RAW TWO METER
TEMPERATURES AT THE TIME WHEN THE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD BE OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK A LITTLE LOW ON THE EC AS IT ASSUMES SNOW COVER,
WHILE THE MEX AND OTHER STAT GUIDANCE ARE LIKELY TO HIGH.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THIS SHOULD BE A MODERATING
PERIOD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. A RECENT RARE OCCURRENCE
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD THEN ENSUE ALLOWING FOR A MODERATING TREND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO CUT WELL INTO THE
LAKES/OH VALLEY RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN.
THIS PERIOD MAY ALSO REQUIRE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND
MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. IN ADDITION THIS SYNOPTIC SET-UP MAY BRING A
CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST WITH SEVERAL DAYS TO LOOK AT THIS FURTHER.

LONGER RANGE: THERE IS CURRENTLY COOLING PROJECTED AT 10 MB IN
THE STRATOSPHERE SUPPORTIVE OF +AO +NAO. A RETURN TO A MORE
POSITIVE EPO AS WELL MAY PROVIDE A WARM PERIOD RELATIVE TO NORMAL
JUST BEYOND OUR SEVEN DAY WINDOW. THE CFS WEEKLIES ARE ALSO
SHOWING THIS WARM PERIOD. SO HANG IN THERE IF YOU ARE TIRED OF THE
SNOW AND CONTINUED COLD.

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOUTHERN TAF SITES, INCLUDING PHL AND ILG, HAVE NOW CHANGED OVER
TO RAIN. WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 35 KT AT MOST SITES, EXCEPT A
LITTLE HIGHER ALONG THE COAST, A LITTLE LOWER IN THE LEHIGH
VALLEY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE JUST A BIT BETTER THIS AFTERNOON
AS A DRY SLOT MOVES NORTH. TAFS ARE BEING UPDATED AS FREQUENTLY AS
POSSIBLE TO KEEP ABREAST WITH CHANGING CONDITIONS. JUST A MESSY
DAY AVIATION-WISE.

EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, THEN
GOING NORTH, THEN NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE 35KT PLUS RANGE AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN EVEN AS IT
MOVES AWAY. THE DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GIVE
US A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE PCPN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND
MOVES IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FIRST AS RAIN, THEN SNOW.

FOR FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR EARLY AND CLOUDS WILL
START TO DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BUT REMAIN GUSTY
OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR.

SATURDAY: MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING
IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: VFR INCREASING CLOUDS LATE MONDAY.

.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREA WATERS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH UP THE COAST TODAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT THIS EVENING BUT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND REACH UP TO 11
FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: GALE WARNING EXTENDED TO 15Z WITH THE
HIGHEST GALE FORCE GUSTS 35 TO LOCALLY 40 KTS TO BE RIGHT AROUND
12Z. SEAS WILL REMAIN OVER 5 FEET THROUGHOUT MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER THE GALE WARNING
TIME FRAME SUBSIDING FRIDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA SEAS WITH WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE STRONG COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS, AS WELL AS THE DELAWARE BAY. THE
HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORTLY AFTER DAWN
TODAY, BUT THE HIGHEST TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
WITH THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE.

COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN
SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

.CLIMATE...
CONGRATULATIONS TO PHL, AN HISTORICAL FOURTH SIX INCH OR GREATER
SNOW EVENT IN ONE SINGLE SEASON.

WE WERE ABLE TO RUN THE CLIMATE THIS MORNING. ALL CLI AND CF6
PRODUCTS ARE NOW UP TO DATE.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-
012>022-027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
NJZ012>014-016-020>027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NJZ023>026.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
DEZ001>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/MEOLA/MIKETTA
MARINE...GAINES/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

319 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
318 PM CST

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH MINOR TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT ON
SATURDAY. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SUBZERO NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT WEEK`S
BIG PATTERN CHANGE.

TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY IS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA AND IT WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS TURNING WESTERLY AND
USHERING IN COLD ADVECTION. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR
FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
HAVE NOT INDICATED IN FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY
SHALLOW MOISTURE SO ITS DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIP BUT WILL
MONITOR THIS. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...BUT NONETHELESS CAA SHOULD ENABLE LOWS TO DIP TO THE
HIGH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...MILDEST IN
SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPERATURES IS MEDIUM.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN FAST FLOW INTO PAC NW WILL QUICKLY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...INITIATING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING SYSTEM ALONG
OR SOUTH OF OH RIVER BY MID-DAY FRIDAY. PATH OF SURFACE LOW AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING INDICATES THAT ONLY SOUTHERN CWA MAY SEE
GLANCING BLOW OF SNOWFALL TOMORROW...WHERE CHANCE POPS WERE
MAINTAINED. RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TOMORROW AS TO HOW
FAR NORTH THE SNOW SHIELD EXTENDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE ALL FAR SOUTH OF OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT GIVEN STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS IT APPEARS THAT AT MOST
A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH OR SO WOULD OCCUR IN THE FAR SOUTH. AS
SYSTEM DEPARTS SOUTHEAST LATER TOMORROW...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE FROM NORTHWEST. 850/925 MB CLIMATOLOGY SUPPORTS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TO PC MUCH OF FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
CLIPPER. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED A BIT SOUTH OF THE
CWA...BUT VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENABLE NORTHWEST WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT OR CALM OVERNIGHT. ASSUMING CLOUDS DO NOT OVERSPREAD
AREA EARLIER...DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEEP SNOWPACK WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SUBZERO LOWS FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE CHICAGO AREA. GIVEN HOW EASILY FAVORED COLD SPOTS HAVE
PLUMMETED IN RECENT NIGHTS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...STILL CONSIDERED THAT LOW-MID MINUS SINGLE DIGITS MAY
NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IN SOME AREAS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING CLIPPER JUST SOUTH
OF CWA ON SATURDAY AND THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW ROBUST FORCING REMAINS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. EVEN THE GUIDANCE THAT MAINTAINS STRONGER FORCING WITH UPPER
WAVE MOVING ACROSS REGION DOES INDICATE AN OVERALL
DAMPENING/WEAKENING TREND...SO BEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE FOCUSED
INTO WESTERN HALF OF CWA AS MENTIONED ON PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.
NONETHELESS..CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN ENTIRE CWA SEEING
ACCUMULATING SNOW OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD OF FAVORABLE LIFT AND SATURATION THROUGH A RELATIVELY
DEEP DGZ...AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN LOWER 20S...RATIOS SHOULD BE A
BIT ABOVE AVERAGE AT AROUND 15:1. SIMILAR GENERAL IDEA OF A 1 TO 3
INCH SNOWFALL WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HIGHEST AGAIN LIKELY
FOCUSED INTO WESTERN HALF OF CWA. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD START BY
EARLY AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST CWA OVERSPREADING REST OF AREA BY EARLY
EVENING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR EARLIER ONSET AS SOMETIMES OCCURS
WITH CLIPPER SYSTEMS...AS WELL AS SOME LINGERING SNOWS IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS...THOUGH RAPID WARM ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT OTHERWISE FAIRLY PLEASANT IN THIS
BITTERLY COLD WINTER.

*LONG TERM DISCUSSION TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT BECMG WEST THIS EVENING WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.

* MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ZEBIC

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF WARM FRONT TO MOVE OUT OF
THE TERMINAL AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WARM FRONT CROSSING MS
RIVER WILL BRING WIND MORE SOUTHWEST WITH MID AFTERNOON PASSAGE
AND A BRIEF SPELL OF WARMER TEMPERATURES.

ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
STRETCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TRAILING COLD
FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. COLD AIR TO FILL
IN SLOWLY BEHIND FRONT AND ACROSS SNOW PACK LEADING CIGS TO LIKELY
FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE INTO THE OVERNIGHT THEN COULD REDEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TOMORROW.

FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES THIS EVENING REMAIN MINIMAL AND IF DOES
OCCUR WOULD LIKELY BE A NUISANCE AT WORSE.

ZEBIC

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FCST.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

ZEBIC

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.

SATURDAY...SNOW IN THE AFTN AND EVENING...IFR LIKELY.

SUNDAY...CHC OF FREEZING RAIN OR ICE PELLETS OVERNIGHT. VFR BCMG
MVFR OR LOWER OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BCMG RAIN OR SNOW IN
THE AFTN. DRY OVERNIGHT. IFR IMPROVING VFR OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...CHC OF RAIN. VFR BCMG MVFR OR LOWER.

JEE

.MARINE...
242 PM CST

SURFACE RIDGE HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS LOW SHOULD SLIDE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT THIS WILL GENERATE GUSTS TO 30
KT...AND BUILD WAVES SLIGHTLY. DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE ICE
COVERAGE...WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO BUILD AS LARGE AS WITH
OPEN WATERS. NONETHELESS...WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 TO 6 FT. THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE LAKES SATURDAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE NEXT LOW
PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND REACHES THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS VARYING FROM
EAST TO NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY. WINDS TURN
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE IN SPEED AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SE TO S TO 30 KT AND THEN VEER
TO WEST 10-20 KT MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS QUIET OVER THE LAKE.

BEACHLER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
311 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 311 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2014

Models look in fairly good agreement with the next two waves
coming through the area through the weekend. So, a blend of the
models looks like a good forecast at this time, in the short term.
In the extended, one system moves into the area for first part of
the week. With temps warming, pcpn type will be tricky at onset of
the pcpn. Then looks like another system is forecast for later
part of the week. Models show some differences on timing of this
system, but all models forecasting warmer temps for next week.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday

Another snow event is coming for very late tonight through
tomorrow. All models are in good agreement with this system so
confidence is high with timing, location and amounts for this
event. Models have trended little further north with best area of
lift and moisture. Looks like snow will begin in the extreme west
after 09z tonight and then overspread the rest of central and
southeast Illinois by 15z. Heaviest snow band should setup south
of a Macomb to Lincoln to Paris line. With the sfc low tracking
from southern MO to western TN tomorrow, looks like should be
plenty of moisture for there to be enough accumulating snow to
reach advisory criteria by tomorrow afternoon. Does look like most
of snow will be tomorrow morning from 6am to noon, with lingering
snow still occurring in the east and southeast during the early
afternoon. So a winter weather advisory will be issued for already
mentioned areas. Snowfall amounts will decrease rapidly to the
north. After a brief dry period, Friday night, another minor snow
event will track across the north into the Grt Lks region. Highest
snowfall amounts, near an inch, will be in the extreme north of
the cwa with axis being along and north of I-74. This snow will
occur mainly Sat afternoon and Sat evening. Then dry weather
should return of Sunday.

Temps through the period will remain cold, below normal.

LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday

Extended period is forecasting a change in the pattern, though it
may be temporary. However, another system is forecast to move into
the region beginning Sunday night and continuing into Monday. This
system will have to overcome a lot of dry air initially so the
pcpn could begin as a mix of sleet and freezing rain. The temps
will warm up to above freezing early Monday morning, so pcpn will
change over to all rain. Pcpn will begin northwest of the IL river
Sunday night, before overspreading the rest of the area as just
rain on Monday. Pcpn could end as a mix of rain and snow, but this
is not worth mentioning at this time. The next weather system will
be Wed through Thur and based on the warmer temps, this pcpn will
be all rain. Cloudy, windy and foggy conditions are also possible as
there will have been several days of temps above freezing and we
have a lot of snow to melt over most of the area. Initial looks at
this system show that thunderstorms are possible, but with models
disagreeing and system 7 days out, it is too soon add
thunderstorms at this time.

Definite warming trend in store for next week. Daytime temps will
warm to above freezing, however, overnight lows will still fall
back to below freezing over portions of the area Mon night and Tue
night. Lows Wed night will be above freezing.

Auten
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2014

Several aviation concerns of note for the 18z TAFs. Band of
mid-level cloudiness currently in place over central Illinois
will quickly shift off to the east over the next couple of hours,
leaving behind mostly clear skies late this afternoon. First big
question is whether MVFR ceilings over Minnesota/northern Iowa
will rotate far enough southeast to impact any of the terminals
this evening. Satellite loops suggest most of this cloud cover will
remain to the north: however, HRRR has been consistently showing
clouds developing/spreading into north-central Illinois during the
evening. Will therefore include a 4-hour period of MVFR ceilings
at all sites except KSPI between 00z and 06z. Once these clouds
depart, only mid/high clouds will prevail through the night. Next
issues will be approach of clipper system and the timing of lower
ceilings and snow. 12z NAM/GFS fairly similar in aggressively
spreading snow across the area early Friday morning, with the
heaviest/steadiest snow focused south of the I-74 corridor. Based
on NAM forecast soundings, have introduced snow at KSPI as early
as 12z, then further northeast to KCMI by 15z. Will carry MVFR
ceilings at the I-74 terminals, but will go with lower IFR
ceilings at both KSPI and KDEC within the heavier snow band Friday
morning.

Barnes
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday
FOR ILZ040-047>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1238 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
1122 AM CST

LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7-8C/KM ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS IN PLACE WITH ADVANCING WARM
FRONT TRAILING FROM CLIPPER NORTH OF MSP. COMBINED WITH MIDLEVEL
SPEED MAX PUNCHING INTO AREA NOTED ON W/V IMAGERY...THIS HAS
RESULTED IN BROKEN BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS PUSHING EAST. GIVEN THE
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW RATES
ARE OCCURRING IN THE SNOW SHOWERS...MOST PROMINENTLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND IN ANOTHER BAND ADVANCING EASTWARD CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND INVOF I-55. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT SOUTHERN BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME AS
IT ADVANCES EAST...WITH NARROWNESS OF FEATURE ONLY SUPPORTIVE OF
VERY BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND A QUICK DUSTING TO MAYBE A
FEW TENTHS. IN FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...MORE SOLID AREA OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY OVER MCHENRY AND LAKE COUNTIES COULD BRING SOME LOCAL
ACCUMULATIONS TO NEAR AN INCH BEFORE ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.DISCUSSION...
349 AM CST

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

RATZER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT BECMG WEST THIS EVENING AND GUSTING
UP TO 25 KT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.

* LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

* MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ZEBIC

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES THIS EVENING REMAIN MINIMAL AND IF DOES
OCCUR WOULD LIKELY BE A NUISANCE AT WORSE.

ZEBIC

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FCST.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

ZEBIC

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.

SATURDAY...SNOW IN THE AFTN AND EVENING...IFR LIKELY.

SUNDAY...CHC OF FREEZING RAIN OR ICE PELLETS OVERNIGHT. VFR BCMG
MVFR OR LOWER OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BCMG RAIN OR SNOW IN
THE AFTN. DRY OVERNIGHT. IFR IMPROVING VFR OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...CHC OF RAIN. VFR BCMG MVFR OR LOWER.

JEE

.MARINE...
318 AM CST

JEE

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1150 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 954 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2014

Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2014

Barnes
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1123 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
1122 AM CST

.DISCUSSION...
349 AM CST

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

RATZER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT BECMG WEST THIS EVENING AND GUSTING
UP TO 25 KT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.

* POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY THIS
AFTN...WITH A BRF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS PSBL.

* MVFR-VFR CIGS ACCOMPANY THE SNOW AND LINGER OVERNIGHT.

JEE/DZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

OTHERWISE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING TO VFR.

JEE

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTN
AND HOW LOW VIS WILL DROP...BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR MAYBE TWO.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

JEE/DZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.

SATURDAY...SNOW IN THE AFTN AND EVENING...IFR LIKELY.

SUNDAY...CHC OF FREEZING RAIN OR ICE PELLETS OVERNIGHT. VFR BCMG
MVFR OR LOWER OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BCMG RAIN OR SNOW IN
THE AFTN. DRY OVERNIGHT. IFR IMPROVING VFR OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...CHC OF RAIN. VFR BCMG MVFR OR LOWER.

JEE

.MARINE...
318 AM CST

JEE

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
954 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 954 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2014

Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 525 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2014

Smith
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

1236 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1225 PM...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE I MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT
MESONET TRENDS. I UPGRADED THE WATERS FOR A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS TONIGHT OUTSIDE TO THE BAYS.

OTHERWISE...COLD AIR REMAINS INTACT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A COASTAL FRONT SHOULD BE FORMING
SHORTLY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE ENTIRE COASTLINE BY MID MORNING.

AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH OF ICE MAY NOW OCCUR ALONG THE
COAST...WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS TODAY AS SNOW SPREADS NORTHWARD. A PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
MVFR AMD POSSIBLY IFR CONDS IN LIGHT SNOW SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. VFR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

LONG TERM...
SCA CONDS PSBL LATE SAT THRU SUN AND AGAIN MON NIGHT AND TUE.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ018-019-023-
024.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-020>022-025>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NHZ003>010-013-
014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

$$
ES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

325 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY MORNING. A
SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AS THESE
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE... WE`VE EXPANDED WINTER STM WARNINGS ACRS NRN PTNS
OF THE CWA...BASICALLY BACK WESTWARD TO ABT THE I-81 CORRIDOR.
WARNINGS NOW EXTEND ALG AND E OF A LN FROM ONONDAGA-CORTLAND-
BROOME-SUSQ-WYOMING-LUZERNE CNTYS...WITH ADVSYS W OF THIS LN THRU
THE FINGER LKS AND CNTRL SRN TIER RGNS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPR AIR/MESO-ANALYSIS DATA DEPICT A
DEEPENING AND CLOSED 700-500 MB LOW OVER VA ATTM...LIFTING
NEWD...WITH AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS/INCREASING RADAR
COVERAGE ACRS ERN WV/VA. IN THE MEANTIME...A WELL DEFINED NARROW
SNOW BAND EXTENDS FROM CNTRL PA...NEWD TO KBGM...TO JUST S OF
KALY...AND INTO CNTRL NEW ENG. THE 13-KM RUC MODEL HAS BEEN
HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF EACH OF THESE FEATURES WELL SO FAR
TDY...AND WE`VE LEANED HEAVILY ON ITS OUTPUT GOING FORWARD...WITH
SOME SUPPORT NOW INDICATED FROM THE 12Z EC...CANADIAN...AND LOCAL
WRF MODELS.

WE EXPECT THE MAIN SNOW BAND OVER CNY ATTM TO SLOW ITS WWD
PROGRESS THROUGH THIS EVE AND BROADEN OUT...IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE CLOSED MID TO UPPER-LVL LOW FROM THE S. A NARROW
BAND OF FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO DVLP THIS EVE (00-06Z)
UNDERNEATH STG MID-LYR FGEN FORCING...ON THE NRN/WRN SIDES OF THE
700-500 MB LOW. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FUTURE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...THE MOST LIKELY POSITION IS JUST
E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR (FROM NE PA INTO ERN BROOME/ERN CHENANGO
CNTYS...AND THE WRN CATSKILLS). AS THE CLOSED MID-UPR LVL
CIRCULATION LIFTS FURTHER INTO NEW ENG AFTER 06Z...THE
STEADIEST/HVYST SNOWFALL SHOULD EXIT THE RGN FROM SW TO NE. BY
ARND DAYBREAK...THIS EVENT SHOULD BE OVER FOR OUR CWA.

ON FRI...A NRN STREAM S/WV...SEEN ON SAT IMAGERY OVER UPR MI/NRN
WI ATTM...IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACRS THE RGN. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
WILL ACT AS A "KICKER" TO MOVE OUR PRESENT STORM FURTHER AWAY INTO
THE N ATLANTIC...IT WILL ALSO HELP BRING SOME LIGHTER SNOW
SHWRS/FLRYS BACK OVER CNY/NE PA...WITH AREAS SE OF LK ONT SEEING
A BIT OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT...WITHIN NWLY LOW-LVL FLOW. ANY ADDTNL
SNOWFALL AMTS ON FRI SHOULD BE LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...ONE FRI NGT/SAT
MRNG AND ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY. MAY SEE MINOR ACCUMS ACRS NE PA ON
SAT NGT. LAKE RESPONSE BEHIND THESE CLIPPERS PER FCST PROFILES SUGGESTS
WEAK/MINOR LES EVENTS. GIVEN TDA`S FOCUS ON SHORT TERM...WILL
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS POTNL WITH LATER FCSTS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LOWER HEIGHTS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A BROADENING OF THE FLOW
TO QUASI-ZONAL ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. THIS SUGGESTS A
GRADUAL WARM UP WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE WEEK WITH RATHER RAPID
TRANSITING SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. A COUPLE QUICK HITTING
FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MON NITE-TUES AND THEN
AGAIN THURS NITE-FRI TIME PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW...WITH A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN EVENT POSSIBLE WITH THE
LATTER SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 40S THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE
EAST. THE WX SYSTEMS WILL BE MINOR...BUT THE MILDER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RIPEN AND MELT A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK WITH AREA RIVERS RESPONDING TO THE RUNOFF.

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL REACH
THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR IN SNOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CNY/NEPA TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EMBEDDED HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT KAVP AND
PROBABLY KBGM WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BELOW AIRPORT MINIMA LIKELY
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. KAVP MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE AS PRECIP
DIMINISHES BENEATH A SEGMENT OF DRIER AIR WORKING NORTHWARD.

THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF HEAVIER SNOW AND STRICTER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ELSEWHERE IS THE LESS CONFIDENT PART OF THE FORECAST FOR LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THERE SEEM TO BE HINTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT THE STORM WILL SET UP AN AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW AFFECTING KELM-
KBGM-KITH AND KAVP AGAIN DURING THE 23Z-03Z TIME FRAME...THEN
TRANSLATE LATER TONIGHT INTO KSYR-KRME WHERE AIRPORT MINIMA WILL
BE CHALLENGED.

AS DAWN ARRIVES FRIDAY...THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES BY 18Z
FRIDAY.

WINDS GENERALLY NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON (WITH SOME LOCAL
VARIATIONS WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT)...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND INCREASING 10-20 KTS AND BECOMING GUSTY. WINDS THEN
TREND MORE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...REMAINING GUSTY TO 25 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTERNOON...VFR.

FRI NGT...BECOMING IFR IN -SN WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

SAT/SUN...VARIABLE VMC/IMC IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

SUN NGT...VFR.

MON...BECOMING MVFR. CHC WINTRY MIX.

TUE...VFR/MVFR.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-
044-047-048-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-036-
037-044>046-056-057-062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ015>017-
022>025-055.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

252 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
830 AM UPDATE...
SNOW PUSHING NWD INTO CNTRL NY THIS MRNG...WITH +SN LIKELY OVER
THE WRN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS LATE THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN. XPCT
LGT ACCUMS ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TDA. AS THIS 1ST WAVE MOVS
OUT...UPR LVL LOW WILL MOV INTO THE RGN THIS EVNG TAKING ON A NEG
TILT. RUC13 DATA VERY INTERESTING FOR TNGT...ACTUALLY SHOWING A
CLOSED 700 MB CIRCULATION OVER ERN PA THIS EVNG...ALONG WITH DVLPG
N/S FGEN AXIS/DEF ZONE ACRS CNTRL/ERN ZONES AND OTHER SIGS VERY
SUGGESTIVE OF +SN ACRS THIS AREA TNGT. ONLY MINOR TWEEKS TO NEAR
TERM FCST. PREV BLO...

7AM UPDATE...

4 AM UPDATE...

CONTINUING WITH THE SAME WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AS DAY SHIFT
ISSUED WED AFTN.

THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF HEAVIER SNOW AND STRICTER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ELSEWEHRE IS THE LESS CONFIDENT PART OF THE FORECAST FOR LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THERE SEEM TO BE HINTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THAT THE STORM WILL SET UP AN AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW AFFECTING KELM-
KBGM-KITH AND KAVP AGAIN DURING THE 23Z-03Z TIME FRAME...THEN
TRANSLATE LATER TONIGHT INTO KSYR-KRME WHERE AIRPORT MINIMA WILL
BE CHALLENGED.

AS DAWN ARRIVES FRIDAY...THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES BY 18Z
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTERNOON...VFR.

FRI NGT...BECOMING IFR IN -SN WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

SAT/SUN...VARIABLE VMC/IMC IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

SUN NGT...VFR.

MON...BECOMING MVFR. CHC WINTRY MIX.

TUE...VFR/MVFR.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043-
044-047-048-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-036-
037-044>046-056-057-062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ015>017-
022>025-055.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

225 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW IS SPREADING NORTH TODAY INTO NEW YORK. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT THEN END LATE TONIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK.

7AM UPDATE...

4 AM UPDATE...

CONTINUING WITH THE SAME WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AS DAY SHIFT
ISSUED WED AFTN.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LOWER HEIGHTS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A BROADENING OF THE FLOW
TO QUASI-ZONAL ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. THIS SUGGESTS A
GRADUAL WARM UP WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE WEEK WITH RATHER RAPID
TRANSITING SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. A COUPLE QUICK HITTING
FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MON NITE-TUES AND THEN
AGAIN THURS NITE-FRI TIME PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW...WITH A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN EVENT POSSIBLE WITH THE
LATTER SYSTEM.

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL REACH
THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR IN SNOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CNY/NEPA TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EMBEDDED HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT KAVP AND
PROBABLY KBGM WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BELOW AIRPORT MINIMA LIKELY
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. KAVP MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE AS PRECIP
DIMINISHES BENEATH A SEGMENT OF DRIER AIR WORKING NORTHWARD.

AS DAWN ARRIVES FRIDAY...THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES BY 18Z
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTERNOON...VFR.

FRI NGT...BECOMING IFR IN -SN WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

SAT/SUN...VARIABLE VMC/IMC IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

SUN NGT...VFR.

MON...BECOMING MVFR. CHC WINTRY MIX.

TUE...VFR/MVFR.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

101 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW IS SPREADING NORTH TODAY INTO NEW YORK. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT THEN END LATE TONIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK.

7AM UPDATE...

4 AM UPDATE...

CONTINUING WITH THE SAME WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AS DAY SHIFT
ISSUED WED AFTN.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL REACH
THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR IN SNOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CNY/NEPA TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EMBEDDED HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT KAVP AND
PROBABLY KBGM WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BELOW AIRPORT MINIMA LIKELY
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. KAVP MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE AS PRECIP
DIMINISHES BENEATH A SEGMENT OF DRIER AIR WORKING NORTHWARD.

AS DAWN ARRIVES FRIDAY...THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES BY 18Z
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTERNOON...VFR.

FRI NGT...BECOMING IFR IN -SN WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

SAT/SUN...VARIABLE VMC/IMC IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

SUN NGT...VFR.

MON...BECOMING MVFR. CHC WINTRY MIX.

TUE...VFR/MVFR.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...JAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

406 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WINTER STORM JUST EAST OF WALLOPS ISLAND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE UP THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FIRST PART OF A WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT TO THE KEYSTONE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS PULL WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MAIN PLAYER IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE A BAND OF
SNOW...APPROX 20 MILES WIDE...THAT HAS BEEN BACKING WESTWARD
THROUGH SERN PA. THE BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM BEDFORD UP
THROUGH STATE COLLEGE TO JUST SOUTH OF WILLIAMSPORT...AND HAS
BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NW...AT 10-15 MPH. WE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING
REPORTS OF SNOW RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR UNDER THIS BAND OF
VERY HEAVY SNOW.

OVER FAR SERN PA...ENOUGH WARM AIR HAS MOVED IN TO MAKE FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN SOME RAIN WHERE
SURFACE TEMPS HAVE CREPT ABOVE FREEZING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN
THERE IN THE RANGE OF 10-15" ARE COMMON. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA OF A WINTRY MIX ARE LIKELY TO
BE SMALL TO NON EXISTENT WITH THE SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN
TAMPING THINGS DOWN.

BIGGEST TWEAK TO NEAR TERM WAS INCLUDING BLAIR COUNTY IN THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AS THE BAND HAS BEEN BASICALLY PIVOTING OVER
OR VERY NEAR SOUTHERN BLAIR AND WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED SNOW
REPORTS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES FURTHER EAST WHERE THE BAND HAS BEEN
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH.

BUT OVERALL SCENARIO IS PLAYING OUT PRETTY CLOSE TO EXPECTED.
EXPECT THE SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL
AREAS...WITH THE WINTRY MIX OR EVEN A LULL IN PRECIP DOMINATING
THE AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF A HARRISBURG TO GETTYSBURG LINE.

RUC CONTINUES THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER CENTRAL
AREAS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AS THE
UPPER LOW AND DRY SLOW PIVOT UP FROM THE CAROLINAS.

THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM BEYOND OUR
CURRENT SNOW BAND...WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE DEFORMATION
ZONE SNOW TO FORM AND SWING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PA AS
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS
THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPING BETWEEN ROUGHLY 5 AND 9 PM. EXACT
PLACEMENT OF FEATURES IN THE MESO MODELS IS OFTEN SUSPECT...BUT
THE MODE OF PRECIP IS OFTEN PRETTY WELL REPRESENTED. HAVE TO BE
AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 1-3
INCHES OR SO UNDER THIS POTENTIAL DEFORMATION ZONE.

ACTIVITY SHOULD FINALLY WIND DOWN REGION-WIDE BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z...LEAVING LITTLE MORE THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S FROM NW TO SE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY BUT NOT TERRIBLY COLD IN THE WAKE OF OUR
STORM. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO OUR LARGER STORM
THAT BY MID DAY WILL BE MOVING UP INTO THE MARITIMES. PRECIP WITH
THIS CLIPPER LOW/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO WESTERN PA IN THE FORM OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL DROP SE ON SAT...BRINGING SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...WITH PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADY LIGHT OT MDT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES OF THE STATE AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW SLIDES
EAST ACROSS WVA AND NRN VA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FEATURE
CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLY OF JUST ENOUGH SNOW /ACROSS THE LAURELS AND
SOUTHERN TIER OF PENN/ FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AS
THE SFC LOW QUICKLY STRENGTHENS AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST. FOR
NOW...DID UP POPS AND AMTS SOME.

FOR SUNDAY...SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OF PA MAY BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAR WEST EARLY. MAYBE A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THAT COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...MUCH LIKE
WED AM.

A CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUE.

SHOULD BE DRY ON WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AFTER TUESDAY COULD WARM TEMPS
BY A LOT BY LATER NEXT WEEK...BUT SNOW COVER AND ICE ON
LAKES MAY TAPER THINGS. PATTERN SUPPORTS A WARM UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN STATES...BUT COLDER AIR STILL TO THE NORTH. ONE
COULD SEE A 20 TO 30 DEGREE GRADIENT IN TEMPS FROM N PA TO S PA
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR THU.

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
WITH IFR/LIFR DOMINATING. HARRISBURG AREA AND SOUTHWARD WILL BE
RIGHT IN THE PRECIP TRANSITION AREA WHERE A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET AND RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS IN
THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS.

EXPECT IFR TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE STORM MOVES UP INTO NEW ENGLAND AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN TOMORROW AS A CLIPPER SLIDES IN
FROM THE WEST...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS BACK TO
MAINLY WESTERN HALF OF CWA.

ANOTHER WEAK STORM WILL SLIDE OFF THROUGH VA FRI NIGHT AND SAT
MORNING...BRINGING REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM ALTOONA
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...MVFR TO IFR WITH SCT SHSN WEST. MAINLY VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST.

MON...LOWERING CONDITIONS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ012-017-037-041-042-045-046.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ018-
019-024>028-033>036-049>053-056>059-063>066.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

141 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WINTER STORM JUST EAST OF WALLOPS ISLAND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE UP THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FIRST PART OF A WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS PULL
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN PLAYER IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE A BAND OF
SNOW...APPROX 20 MILES WIDE...THAT HAS BEEN BACKING WESTWARD
THROUGH SERN PA. THE BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM BEDFORD UP
THROUGH STATE COLLEGE TO JUST SOUTH OF WILLIAMSPORT...AND HAS
BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NW...AT 10-15 MPH. WE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING
REPORTS OF SNOW RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR UNDER THIS BAND OF
VERY HEAVY SNOW.

RUC CONTINUES THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER CENTRAL
AREAS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AS THE
UPPER LOW AND DRY SLOW PIVOT UP FROM THE CAROLINAS.

ACTIVITY SHOULD FINALLY WIND DOWN REGION-WIDE BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z...LEAVING LITTLE MORE THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S FROM NW TO SE.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY BUT NOT TERRIBLY COLD IN THE WAKE OF OUR
STORM. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO OUR LARGER STORM
THAT BY MID DAY WILL BE MOVING UP INTO THE MARITIMES. PRECIP WITH
THIS CLIPPER LOW/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO WESTERN PA IN THE FORM OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL DROP SE ON SAT...BRINGING SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...WITH PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADY LIGHT OT MDT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES OF THE STATE AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND 1002-1004 SFC LOW
SLIDES EAST ACROSS WVA AND NRN VA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FEATURE
CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLY OF JUST ENOUGH SNOW /ACROSS THE LAURELS AND
SOUTHERN TIER OF PENN/ FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AS THE
SFC LOW QUICKLY STRENGTHENS AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.

FOR SUNDAY...SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OF PA MAY BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAR WEST EARLY.

DID LOWER TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT BY A LOT...GIVEN THAT COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...MUCH
LIKE THIS AM.

SLOWER WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND WARM UP ON MONDAY.

GFS LOOKS TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY STILL...THUS
WEIGHTED FCST TO WPC CHARTS AND EC OUTPUT.

SHOULD BE DRY ON WED.

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
WITH IFR/LIFR DOMINATING. HARRISBURG AREA AND SOUTHWARD WILL BE
RIGHT IN THE PRECIP TRANSITION AREA WHERE A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET AND RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS IN
THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS.

EXPECT IFR TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE STORM MOVES UP INTO NEW ENGLAND AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN TOMORROW AS A CLIPPER SLIDES IN
FROM THE WEST...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS BACK TO
MAINLY WESTERN HALF OF CWA.

ANOTHER WEAK STORM WILL SLIDE OFF THROUGH VA FRI NIGHT AND SAT
MORNING...BRINGING REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM ALTOONA
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...MVFR TO IFR WITH SCT SHSN WEST. MAINLY VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST.

MON...LOWERING CONDITIONS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ012-017>019-024-033-037-041-042-045-046.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ025>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063>066.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

139 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WINTER STORM JUST EAST OF WALLOPS ISLAND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE UP THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FIRST PART OF A WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS PULL
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

MAIN PLAYER IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE A BAND OF
SNOW...APPROX 20 MILES WIDE...THAT HAS BEEN BACKING WESTWARD
THROUGH SERN PA. THE BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM BEDFORD UP
THROUGH STATE COLLEGE TO JUST SOUTH OF WILLIAMSPORT...AND HAS
BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NW...AT 10-15 MPH. WE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING
REPORTS OF SNOW RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR UNDER THIS BAND OF
VERY HEAVY SNOW.

RUC CONTINUES THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER CENTRAL
AREAS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AS THE
UPPER LOW AND DRY SLOW PIVOT UP FROM THE CAROLINAS.

ACTIVITY SHOULD FINALLY WIND DOWN REGION-WIDE BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z...LEAVING LITTLE MORE THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S FROM NW TO SE.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

FRIDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY BUT NOT TERRIBLY COLD IN THE WAKE OF OUR
STORM. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO OUR LARGER STORM
THAT BY MID DAY WILL BE MOVING UP INTO THE MARITIMES. PRECIP WITH
THIS CLIPPER LOW/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO WESTERN PA IN THE FORM OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL DROP SE ON SAT...BRINGING SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...WITH PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADY LIGHT OT MDT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES OF THE STATE AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND 1002-1004 SFC LOW
SLIDES EAST ACROSS WVA AND NRN VA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FEATURE
CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLY OF JUST ENOUGH SNOW /ACROSS THE LAURELS AND
SOUTHERN TIER OF PENN/ FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AS THE
SFC LOW QUICKLY STRENGTHENS AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.

FOR SUNDAY...SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OF PA MAY BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAR WEST EARLY.

DID LOWER TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT BY A LOT...GIVEN THAT COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...MUCH
LIKE THIS AM.

SLOWER WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND WARM UP ON MONDAY.

GFS LOOKS TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY STILL...THUS
WEIGHTED FCST TO WPC CHARTS AND EC OUTPUT.

SHOULD BE DRY ON WED.

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
WITH IFR/LIFR DOMINATING. HARRISBURG AREA AND SOUTHWARD WILL BE
RIGHT IN THE PRECIP TRANSITION AREA WHERE A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET AND RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS IN
THE SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS.

EXPECT IFR TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE STORM MOVES UP INTO NEW ENGLAND AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN TOMORROW AS A CLIPPER SLIDES IN
FROM THE WEST...BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS BACK TO
MAINLY WESTERN HALF OF CWA.

ANOTHER WEAK STORM WILL SLIDE OFF THROUGH VA FRI NIGHT AND SAT
MORNING...BRINGING REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM ALTOONA
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SUN...MVFR TO IFR WITH SCT SHSN WEST. MAINLY VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST.

MON...LOWERING CONDITIONS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ012-017>019-024-025-033-037-041-042-045-046.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ026>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063>066.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

342 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WILL KEEP SMALL POPS FOR PATCHY FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WI.
IR TEMPERATURE ENHANCEMENT AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED ICE
FALLING INTO THE CLOUD LAYER AT FIRST. SHEAR NEAR THE TOP OF THE
LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE OUT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE IF
TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING. OTHERWISE...STRONG
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY SHSN EARLIER TODAY
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF SRN WI. A BRISK NIGHT LIES AHEAD WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISE OF 3 TO
5 MB AFFECTING THE AREA THIS EVENING. WILL BE INCREASING PREVAILING
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THE EVENING HOURS TO 15 TO 25
MPH...DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE RISE AREA
SLIDES EAST. WITH FRESH FALLEN SNOW...WL ADD PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
FOR THE EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 25 MPH.

INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. 4KM NCEP WRF-NMM HAS DECREASING COLUMN
CONDENSATE LATER IN THE EVENING...HOWEVER MORE MID-HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD ROLL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM.
85H TEMPS FALL BACK TO AROUND 10C RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS
DIPPING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MOST LOCATIONS.

.FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN MT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FLURRIES MAY NEAR SOUTHWEST CWA BORDER DURING THE MORNING
BUT THINKING SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...COLD
AIR OVER SOUTHERN WI REINFORCED BUT SMALL SURGE OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND SHORT WAVE. HENCE DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-FEBRUARY.

.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SURFACE RIDGE WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
FOR FRI NT WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM
THE DAKOTAS. A CONSENSUS OF MODELS HAS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
WEAKENING SFC LOW TRACKING TO CENTRAL IA BY 00Z SUN AND BECOMING A
BROAD AND WEAK LOW BY 12Z SUN OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST
LIFT AND QPF IS OVER THE SW CWA WITH WEAKENING LIFT AND LOWER QPF
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SEWD. LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...FRONTOGENESIS AIDED BY PVA ALOFT WILL START THE SNOW
MAINLY SAT AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE SNOW
ACCUM FORECAST RANGES FROM 0.5-1.0 INCHES OVER EAST CENTRAL WI TO
2 INCHES SW OF MADISON. MORE SNOW WOULD OCCUR IF THE SYSTEM
WEAKENING IS DELAYED. ANOTHER SFC RIDGE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER WI
FOR SUN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM

A BROAD AND MORE ZONAL JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NEW WEEK AND THEN TRANSITION TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT AS A POLAR
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WRN USA. THUS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL AFFECT
SRN WI MAINLY ON MONDAY WITH SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN A WARM LAYER ALOFT AND RESULTANT MIXED PCPN INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN.

SWLY WINDS AND MILDER TEMPS WILL FOLLOW FOR MON NT INTO TUE NT.
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS THEN POSSIBLE VIA THE ECMWF FOR WED NT
INTO THU NT FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS NEWD TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS WOULD MAINTAIN MILD TEMPS WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN...HOWEVER
STILL MENTIONED SOME SNOW AS WELL GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS TIME.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL USHER PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS TAF SITES
INTO THE EVENING. TOTAL COLUMN CONDENSATE DECREASES OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER LINGERING THERMAL TROF AND WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN
LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS
POINT AND WILL MOST LIKELY BRING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING INTO TAF
SITES DURING THE NIGHT.

.MARINE...

ASSUMING ICE STILL COVERS MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO REDUCE WAVE ACTION. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
CDFNT PASSING ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS STRENGTHENING A BIT OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. HENCE WL POST SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1135 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

SFC LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF KDLH LATE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE QUICKLY TOWARD NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN THRU THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA...THRU KRST
AROUND 18Z AND KLSE AROUND 20Z...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25KT G30-
35KT SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND IT FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS TO CREATE SOME MVFR BLSN/DRIFTING SNOW AT SITES LIKE KRST THRU
THE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CLOUDS SCT -SHSN WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU THE AFTERNOON...CLEARING KRST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND KLSE DURING MID EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST. WINDS DIMINISH THRU THE EVENING AS WELL WITH ANY BLSN SETTLING
DOWN AND VSBYS IMPROVING AT SITES LIKE KRST.

GENERALLY GOOD VFR EXPECTED FROM LATE EVENING THRU FRI AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM AND DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT PASS SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO DO LITTLE MORE THAN SPREAD SOME SCT-BKN
MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF SITES ON FRI.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS